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Sample records for alcohol marketing predicts

  1. Receptivity to alcohol marketing predicts initiation of alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C; Schleicher, Nina C; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2008-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Data were obtained from in-class surveys of sixth, seventh, and eighth graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n = 1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity), and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents' receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors' marketing tactics.

  2. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 316 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  3. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Tanski, Susanne E; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D

    2016-02-01

    Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  4. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C.; Tanski, Susanne E.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. METHODS A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. RESULTS At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. CONCLUSIONS Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. PMID:26738886

  5. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  6. Assessing restrictiveness of national alcohol marketing policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2014-01-01

    To develop an approach for monitoring national alcohol marketing policies globally, an area of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Alcohol Strategy. Data on restrictiveness of alcohol marketing policies came from the 2002 and 2008 WHO Global Surveys on Alcohol and Health. We included four scales in a sensitivity analysis to determine optimal weights to score countries on their marketing policies and applied the selected scale to assess national marketing policy restrictiveness. Nearly, 36% of countries had no marketing restrictions. The overall restrictiveness levels were not significantly different between 2002 and 2008. The number of countries with strict marketing regulations did not differ across years. This method of monitoring alcohol marketing restrictiveness helps track progress towards implementing WHO'S Global Alcohol Strategy. Findings indicate a consistent lack of restrictive policies over time, making this a priority area for national and global action. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  7. Distorted Facets of Marketing Ethics for Alcoholic Beer Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newaj Avinash

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Marketing is the art of delivering value whilst ethical marketing is to provide this value through what is morally right. This new era customers are well informed, more knowledgeable, less vulnerable to unethical practices and cannot be easily manipulated by marketers. Many companies are thus, moving towards ethical marketing so as to develop trust among existing and new customers. Strict regulations by the Mauritian government have further forced marketers to act ethically; whereby the advertising of alcoholic beers has been banned. Yet, indirect strategies have been adopted by marketers so as to pave their way in this competitive industry. What are they? Are customers aware about them and are they influenced? Road accidents, social violence and health problems are associated to such malpractice. This study has shed light on the above and measures have been proposed for the benefit of customers, marketers and the government. This study was connected to the ethical theories.

  8. Brain reactivity to alcohol and cannabis marketing during sobriety and intoxication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B; Theunissen, Eef L; Kuypers, Kim P C; Evers, Elisabeth A; Stiers, Peter; Toennes, Stefan W; Witteman, Jurriaan; van Dalen, Wim; Ramaekers, Johannes G

    2017-05-01

    Drugs of abuse stimulate striatal dopamine release and activate reward pathways. This study examined the impact of alcohol and cannabis marketing on the reward circuit in alcohol and cannabis users while sober and intoxicated. It was predicted that alcohol and cannabis marketing would increase striatal activation when sober and that reward sensitivity would be less during alcohol and cannabis intoxication. Heavy alcohol (n = 20) and regular cannabis users (n = 21) participated in a mixed factorial study involving administration of alcohol and placebo in the alcohol group and cannabis and placebo in the cannabis group. Non-drug users (n = 20) served as between group reference. Brain activation after exposure to alcohol and cannabis marketing movies was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging and compared between groups while sober and compared with placebo while intoxicated. Implicit alcohol and cannabis cognitions were assessed by means of a single-category implicit association test. Alcohol and cannabis marketing significantly increased striatal BOLD activation across all groups while sober. Striatal activation however decreased during intoxication with alcohol and cannabis. Implicit associations with cannabis marketing cues were significantly more positive in alcohol and cannabis users as compared with non-drug using controls. Public advertising of alcohol or cannabis use elicits striatal activation in the brain's reward circuit. Reduction of marketing would reduce brain exposure to reward cues that motivate substance use. Conversely, elevated dopamine levels protect against the reinforcing potential of marketing. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  9. Alcoholism and alcohol drinking habits predicted from alcohol dehydrogenase genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolstrup, J.S.; Nordestgaard, Børge; Rasmussen, S.

    2008-01-01

    Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 whi...

  10. Regulation of alcohol marketing: a global view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna

    2005-09-01

    The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves.

  11. Misuse of social media marketing by alcohol companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakirhusain A Shaikh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Epidemiological transition in the form of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs now becoming the main cause of mortality and morbidity is very much evident even in developing countries like India. Alcohol is an important risk factor for NCD. The use of alcohol is increasing especially in young people and women. This increased use can be attributed to aggressive and innovative marketing by alcohol, in spite of and due to restrictions on its marketing. Social media, in recent times, has been misused by alcohol companies for marketing their products legally, due to legal loophole. The present study examined the reach of alcohol companies on social media and the marketing strategies used by them. Design, Settings, Participants: Facebook, Twitter and YouTube were explored for accounts and content by alcohol companies for marketing their product. Policies of social media sites pertaining to alcohol marketing were also studied. Measurements: Alcohol marketing was measured in terms of content posted by alcohol companies, use of direct or surrogate advertisement and engagement with users. Findings: Alcohol companies have been conveniently using social media to target young urban population with direct and surrogate advertisements of their products. Current social media policies and laws are ineffective in controlling it. Conclusions: Amendment of laws pertaining to alcohol marketing to include social media also in its ambit is necessary. Social media sites should revise their policies to prevent alcohol marketing and promotion especially to underaged users.

  12. Intoxigenic digital spaces? Youth, social networking sites and alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Richard; Casswell, Sally

    2010-09-01

    To examine how young people in New Zealand engage with alcohol and reproduce alcohol marketing messages and alcohol-related branding in 'Bebo', a popular social networking site (SNS) on the Internet. Data are drawn from information posted on approximately 150 Bebo Web pages and analysed by way of textual analysis and cyberspace ethnography. Social networking sites, such as Bebo, provide young people with a digital space in which to share a range of alcohol marketing messages via peer-to-peer transmission. Bebo also enables youth to communicate to one another how they consume alcohol and their views of alcohol marketing messages. The information being shared by young people who use Bebo is openly provided in the form of personal information, forum comments, digital photographs and answering quizzes about their engagement with alcohol. Through this sharing of information in the digital Internet environment, young people are creating 'intoxigenic social identities' as well as 'intoxigenic digital spaces' that further contribute towards the normalisation of youth consumption of alcohol. A better understanding of how youth are using the Internet to share their experiences with alcohol and engagement with alcohol-related messages is crucial to public health research as alcohol marketing practices rapidly evolve.

  13. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; van Dalen, Wim

    2016-10-01

    This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for non-alcohol branded media exposure. Prospective observational study (11-12- and 14-17-month intervals), using a three-wave autoregressive cross-lagged model. School-based sample in 181 state-funded schools in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland. A total of 9075 eligible respondents participated in the survey (mean age 14 years, 49.5% male. Adolescents reported their frequency of past-month drinking and binge drinking. Alcohol marketing exposure was measured by a latent variable with 13 items measuring exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising, alcohol sport sponsorship, music event/festival sponsorship, ownership alcohol-branded promotional items, reception of free samples and exposure to price offers. Confounders were age, gender, education, country, internet use, exposure to non-alcohol sponsored football championships and television programmes without alcohol commercials. The analyses showed one-directional long-term effects of alcohol marketing exposure on drinking (exposure T1 on drinking T2: β = 0.420 (0.058), P  0.05). Similar results were found in the binge drinking model (exposure T1 on binge T2: β = 0.409 (0.054), P  0.05). There appears to be a one-way effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' alcohol use over time, which cannot be explained by either previous drinking or exposure to non-alcohol-branded marketing. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  14. Flavored alcoholic beverages: an international marketing campaign that targets youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, James F; Johnsson, Diane

    2005-09-01

    Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) were first introduced into the alcohol market in the early I980s in the form of wine coolers. FABs are sweet, relatively low alcohol content beverages that are designed for "entry-level" drinkers. The alcohol industry has introduced new products and production methods to expand the category's popularity. Research suggests that they are popular with underage drinkers, particularly teenage girls, and that the industry uses marketing practices that appear to target youth. FABs are now marketed globally, and their production and marketing vary by country based on national regulatory restraints. In the United States, industry representations that the products are malt beverages for regulatory purposes appears to violate many state laws because the alcohol in the FABs is derived from distilled spirits. Recommendations for regulatory reform, including new legal definitions of FABs, increased taxes, and restrictions on availability, are applicable at both national and state levels.

  15. University-Affiliated Alcohol Marketing Enhances the Incentive Salience of Alcohol Cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, Bruce D; Loersch, Chris; Ito, Tiffany A; Levsen, Meredith P; Volpert-Esmond, Hannah I; Fleming, Kimberly A; Bolls, Paul; Carter, Brooke K

    2018-01-01

    We tested whether affiliating beer brands with universities enhances the incentive salience of those brands for underage drinkers. In Study 1, 128 undergraduates viewed beer cues while event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded. Results showed that beer cues paired with in-group backgrounds (logos for students' universities) evoked an enhanced P3 ERP component, a neural index of incentive salience. This effect varied according to students' levels of identification with their university, and the amplitude of the P3 response prospectively predicted alcohol use over 1 month. In Study 2 ( N = 104), we used a naturalistic advertisement exposure to experimentally create in-group brand associations and found that this manipulation caused an increase in the incentive salience of the beer brand. These data provide the first evidence that marketing beer via affiliating it with students' universities enhances the incentive salience of the brand for underage students and that this effect has implications for their alcohol involvement.

  16. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents’ alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordi F.; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; Dalen, Wim E.

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims: This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents’ drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for

  17. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, A. de; Tanghe, J.; Leeuw, R.N.H. de; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Anderson, P.D.; Beccaria, F.; Bujalski, M.; Celata, C.; Gosselt, J.; Schreckenberg, D.; Slodownik, L.; Wothge, J.; Dalen, W. van

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims: This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for

  18. Development of a Climate Prediction Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulston, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

  19. Alcohol marketing and youth alcohol consumption: a systematic review of longitudinal studies published since 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David; Noel, Jonathan; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Lobstein, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Youth alcohol consumption is a major global public health concern. Previous reviews have concluded that exposure to alcohol marketing was associated with earlier drinking initiation and higher alcohol consumption among youth. This review examined longitudinal studies published since those earlier reviews. Peer-reviewed papers were identified in medical, scientific and social science databases, supplemented by examination of reference lists. Non-peer-reviewed papers were included if they were published by organizations deemed to be authoritative, were fully referenced and contained primary data not available elsewhere. Papers were restricted to those that included measures of marketing exposure and alcohol consumption for at least 500 underage people. Multiple authors reviewed studies for inclusion and assessed their quality using the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Quality Assessment Tool for Observation Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Twelve studies (ranging in duration from 9 months to 8 years), following nine unique cohorts not reported on previously involving 35 219 participants from Europe, Asia and North America, met inclusion criteria. All 12 found evidence of a positive association between level of marketing exposure and level of youth alcohol consumption. Some found significant associations between youth exposure to alcohol marketing and initiation of alcohol use (odds ratios ranging from 1.00 to 1.69), and there were clear associations between exposure and subsequent binge or hazardous drinking (odds ratios ranging from 1.38 to 2.15). Mediators included marketing receptivity, brand recognition and alcohol expectancies. Levels of marketing exposure among younger adolescents were similar to those found among older adolescents and young adults. Young people who have greater exposure to alcohol marketing appear to be more likely subsequently to initiate alcohol use and engage in binge and hazardous drinking. © 2016 Society for the Study of

  20. Alcohol marketing receptivity, marketing-specific cognitions, and underage binge drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E; Engels, Rutger C M E; Sargent, James D

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. This study describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1,734 U.S. 15- to 20-year-old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including TV time, Internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30-day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies, and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for sociodemographics, personality, and peer drinking. Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30-day binge drinking. Correlations between mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 to 0.47), and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand to drink, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on

  1. Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Jean; Coleman, James; White, Martin

    2014-05-20

    Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast--an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team--England--suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here.

  2. Who 'likes' alcohol? Young Australians' engagement with alcohol marketing via social media and related alcohol consumption patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrotte, Elise R; Dietze, Paul M; Wright, Cassandra J; Lim, Megan S

    2016-10-01

    To describe patterns of 'liking' alcohol marketing social media pages, and determine related alcohol consumption patterns among young Australians. Participants were 1,001 Australians aged 15-29 years who completed a cross-sectional online survey. Logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used. A quarter (249/1001, 24.9%) liked at least one of the alcohol marketing social media pages, most commonly brands of spirits, cider and alcohol retailers. Underage participants were as likely as older participants to report liking these pages. Alcohol marketing social media use was significantly and independently associated with male gender, living outside a major city, ever using illegal drugs and early age of first alcohol consumption (all pmarketing social media use (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8, p=marketing pages is common regardless of age, and associated with riskier alcohol consumption, among young Australians. There is a need to develop strategies to reduce the exposure to, and potential impact of, alcohol marketing social media pages on young Australians, and ensure these pages are neither accessible to nor targeting underage social media users. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

  3. Culture clash: alcohol marketing and public health aspirations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Geoffrey; de Wever, Johanna

    2008-03-01

    It is of no coincidence that a number of recent Harm Reduction Digests have addressed the issue of the reduction of alcohol-related harm. Despite the dominant focus on illicit drug use in the popular discourse, alcohol remains Australia's number one drug problem, as it is in many other developed countries. In this Digest Munro and de Wever use the 'four Ps' of marketing: product, price, place and promotion, to critique the two decades industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing. They conclude that if we are going to develop policies which effectively change Australian drinking culture to reduce alcohol-related harm, we need first to accept that the alcohol industry and the health field have separate and conflicting interests.

  4. Everyday, everywhere: alcohol marketing and social media--current trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, James

    2012-01-01

    To provide a snapshot content analysis of social media marketing among leading alcohol brands in the UK, and to outline the implications for both regulatory policies and further research. Using screengrab technology, the complete Facebook walls and Twitter timelines for 12 leading UK alcohol brands in November 2011 were captured and archived. A total of 701 brand-authored posts were identified and categorized using a thematic coding frame. Key strategic trends were identified and analysed in the light of contextual research into recent developments in marketing practice within the alcohol industry. A number of dominating trends were identified. These included the use of real-world tie-ins, interactive games, competitions and time-specific suggestions to drink. These methods reflect a strategy of branded conversation-stimulus which is favoured by social media marketing agencies. A number of distinct marketing methods are deployed by alcohol brands when using social media. These may undermine policies which seek to change social norms around drinking, especially the normalization of daily consumption. Social media marketing also raises questions regarding the efficacy of reactive regulatory frameworks. Further research into both the nature and impact of alcohol marketing on social media is needed.

  5. Alcohol Marketing Receptivity, Marketing-specific Cognitions and Underage Binge Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Sargent, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. Methods This paper describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1734 U.S. 15–20 year old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including television time, internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30 day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for socio-demographics, personality and peer drinking. Results Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30 day binge drinking. Correlations among mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 – 0.47) and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Conclusions Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. PMID:23256927

  6. Alcohol regulation, communication strategies and underage alcohol consumption in Spain: Implications for social marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez Sánchez, Carla; Sancho-Esper, Franco

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it examines the communication strategies pursued by firms related to alcohol beverages in Spain during a decade with major changes in alcohol marketing regulations. Second, it analyzes the relationship between these strategies and underage alcohol consumption before and after 2007. Design/methodology/approach. Panel data methodology is implemented using data from ESTUDES national survey (average sample size 26,000 interviews, 2004-2010) an...

  7. Alcohol marketing research: the need for a new agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra S

    2011-03-01

    This paper aims to contribute to a rethink of marketing research priorities to address policy makers' evidence needs in relation to alcohol marketing. Discussion paper reviewing evidence gaps identified during an appraisal of policy options to restrict alcohol marketing. Evidence requirements can be categorized as follows: (i) the size of marketing effects for the whole population and for policy-relevant population subgroups, (ii) the balance between immediate and long-term effects and the time lag, duration and cumulative build-up of effects and (iii) comparative effects of partial versus comprehensive marketing restrictions on consumption and harm. These knowledge gaps impede the appraisal and evaluation of existing and new interventions, because without understanding the size and timing of expected effects, researchers may choose inadequate time-frames, samples or sample sizes. To date, research has tended to rely on simplified models of marketing and has focused disproportionately on youth populations. The effects of cumulative exposure across multiple marketing channels, targeting of messages at certain population groups and indirect effects of advertising on consumption remain unclear. It is essential that studies into marketing effect sizes are geared towards informing policy decision-makers, anchored strongly in theory, use measures of effect that are well-justified and recognize fully the complexities of alcohol marketing efforts. © 2010 The Author, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. North America markets for alcohol and alcohol-derived motor fuels and need for tax incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigwood, B.

    1991-01-01

    The U.S. fuel alcohol and ether industry has grown from its infancy in 1979 to approximately 2.9 billion gallons of production capacity in 1991. With the emphasis on clean air, the uncertainties in the Middle East, and fluctuating oil prices, IRI believes the demand for alcohol-derived motor fuels is poised to begin a second phase of expansion. Historically, the two primary alcohol-derived motor fuels sold in the U.S. have been methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol. There is also a limited but growing use of methanol as 85% blendstock for gasoline. Since 1978, fuel ethanol has provided the U.S. petroleum industry with an additional source of supply, octane, and profit. Its price was based on the price of wholesale gasoline plus available federal and state tax incentives. These incentives allowed ethanol, with production costs of $1.00 to $1.25 per gallon, to compete with gasoline at prices of 40 to 65 per gallon. Without the federal and state tax incentives, it would not be economically feasible to sell or manufacture fuel ethanol. On the other hand, the largest consumption of methanol has been as a feedstock for the production of MTBE, the world's fastest growing chemical over the past seven years. MTBE prices are based on the cost of raising the octane level of gasoline, and this commodity does not receive subsidies. Beginning in 1992, IRI predicts the price relationship between ethanol, MTBE, and gasoline will change as U.S. refiners and marketers are required to include oxygenated fuels (alcohol-derived) in their gasoline. In total, over 60 billion gallons of gasoline will need to be reformulated by the year 2000. The increased demand for oxygen will result in a 2.5-billion gallon deficit of MTBE and 1.2-billion gallon deficit of ethanol by the year 2000. 2 tabs

  9. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  10. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the ‘regulatory pyramid’, alcohol being less regulated than tobacco. PMID:28118411

  11. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentine Petronella Martino

    Full Text Available A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1 is unnecessary; (2 is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3 will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4 faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5 that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

  12. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

  13. Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    diffusion models in marketing research use fairly simple demand models. In this paper we discuss the problem of predicting market shares for new products and suggest a method that combines advanced choice models with a diffusion model to take into account that new products often need time to gain......Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate demand models...... are suitable to forecast demand in relatively stable markets, but show limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for new products it is crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market over time through a diffusion process. However, typical...

  14. Alcohol marketing in televised English professional football: a frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Andrew; Adams, Jean

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to explore the frequency of alcohol marketing (both formal commercials and otherwise) in televised top-class English professional football matches. A purposive sample of six broadcasts (total = 1101 min) of televised top-class English club football matches were identified and recorded in full. A customized coding framework was used to identify and categorize all verbal and visual alcohol references in non-commercial broadcasting. The number and the duration of all formal alcohol commercials were also noted. A mean of 111 visual references and 2 verbal references to alcohol per hour of broadcast were identified. Nearly all visual references were to beer products and were primarily simple logos or branding. The majority of verbal alcohol references were related to title-sponsorship of competitions. A total of 17 formal alcohol commercials were identified, accounting for <1% of total broadcast time. Visual alcohol references in televised top-class English football matches are common with an average of nearly two per minute. Verbal references are rare and formal alcohol commercials account for <1% of broadcast time. Restriction of all alcohol sports sponsorship, as seen for tobacco, may be justified.

  15. An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2009-01-01

    The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has...... however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol...... have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect...

  16. Trade law and alcohol regulation: what role for a global Alcohol Marketing Code?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Andrew D; Casben, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Following calls for restrictions and bans on alcohol advertising, and in light of the tobacco industry's challenge to Australia's tobacco plain packaging measure, a tobacco control measure finding support in the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, this paper considers what role, if any, an international alcohol marketing code might have in preventing or reducing the risk of challenges to domestic alcohol marketing restrictions under trade rules. Narrative review of international trade and health instruments and international trade court judgements regarding alcohol products and marketing restrictions. The experience of European trade courts in the litigation of similar measures suggests that World Trade Organization rules have sufficient flexibility to support the implementation of alcohol marketing restrictions. However, the experience also highlights the possibility that public health measures have disproportionate and unjustifiable trade effects and that the ability of a public health measure to withstand a challenge under trade rules will turn on its particular design and implementation. Measures implemented pursuant to international public health instruments are not immune to trade law challenges. Close collaboration between health policymakers, trade officials and lawyers, from as early as the research stage in the development of a measure to ensure a robust evidence base, will ensure the best chance of regulatory survival for an international marketing code. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Schuster, Lisa; Drennan, Judy; Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Leo, Cheryl; Gullo, Matthew J; Connor, Jason P

    2015-10-01

    This study seeks to establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the GOKA program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2,114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral, and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking refusal self-efficacy of identified segments were subsequently examined. Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers, (2) Bingers, and (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post-participation were observed for Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting the application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments will extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Paternal alcoholism predicts the occurrence but not the remission of alcoholic drinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, J; Penick, E C; Nickel, E J

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the effects of father's alcoholism on the development and remission from alcoholic drinking by age 40. METHOD: Subjects were selected from a Danish birth cohort that included 223 sons of alcoholic fathers (high risk; HR) and 106 matched controls (low risk; LR). Clinical...... examinations were performed at age 40 (n = 202) by a psychiatrist using structured interviews and DSM-III-R diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: HR subjects were significantly more likely than LR subjects to develop alcohol dependence (31% vs. 16%), but not alcohol abuse (17% vs. 15%). More subjects with alcohol...... abuse were in remission at age 40 than subjects with alcohol dependence. Risk did not predict remission from either alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence. CONCLUSION: Familial influences may play a stronger role in the development of alcoholism than in the remission or recovery from alcoholism....

  19. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing : A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.M.; Mathijssen, J.J.P.; van Bon-Martens, M.J.H.; van Oers, J.A.M.; Garretsen, H.F.L.

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing

  20. Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results...

  1. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  2. Developmental differences in childhood motor coordination predict adult alcohol dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzardo, Ann M; Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Danish Longitudinal Study of Alcoholism has identified a number of early biological indicators that predicted alcohol dependence 30 years later. In light of recent evidence linking deficits of the cerebellum to certain neuropsychiatric disorders often comorbid with alcoholism, we...

  3. Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

    2014-11-01

    The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

  4. The association between exposure to social media alcohol marketing and youth alcohol use behaviors in India and Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

    2018-06-13

    Alcohol marketing on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with alcohol use among young people. Alcohol companies adapt their online marketing content to specific national contexts and responses to such content differ by national settings. However, there exists very little academic work comparing the association between alcohol marketing on SNS and alcohol use among young people in different national settings and across different SNS. Therefore, we aimed to extend the limited existing work by investigating and comparing the association between self-reported exposure to alcohol marketing on three leading SNS (Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter) and alcohol use among young people in diverse national contexts (India and Australia). Cross-sectional, self-report data were obtained from a convenience sample of 631 respondents (330 in India; 301 in Australia) aged 13-25 years via online surveys. Respondents answered questions on their drinking behaviors and involvement with alcohol marketing on SNS. Many respondents from both countries reported interacting with alcohol content online, predominantly on Facebook, followed by YouTube and then Twitter. The interaction was primarily in the forms of posting/liking/sharing/commenting on items posted on alcohol companies' social media accounts, viewing the event page/attending the event advertised by an alcohol company via social media, and/or accessing an alcohol website. Multivariate analyses demonstrated significant associations between respondents' interaction with alcohol content and drinking levels, with effects differing by SNS, demographic group, and country. For example, having friends who shared alcohol-related content was an important predictor of usual alcohol consumption for Indian respondents (p social media platforms and national contexts. The results highlight the need to formulate and implement strategies to effectively regulate the SNS alcohol marketing, especially among younger SNS users.

  5. Children's exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets: An objective analysis using GPS technology and wearable cameras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, T; Pearson, A L; Stanley, J; Smith, M; Barr, M; Ni Mhurchu, C; Signal, L

    2017-07-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing within alcohol retailers has been associated with higher rates of childhood drinking, brand recognition, and marketing recall. This study aimed to objectively measure children's everyday exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets. Children aged 11-13 (n = 167) each wore a wearable camera and GPS device for four consecutive days. Micro-spatial analyses were used to examine exposures within supermarkets. In alcohol retailing supermarkets (n = 30), children encountered alcohol marketing on 85% of their visits (n = 78). Alcohol marketing was frequently near everyday goods (bread and milk) or entrance/exit. Alcohol sales in supermarkets should be banned in order to protect children from alcohol marketing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Policy Approaches for Regulating Alcohol Marketing in a Global Context: A Public Health Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2018-04-01

    Alcohol consumption is responsible for 3.3 million deaths globally or nearly 6% of all deaths. Alcohol use contributes to both communicable and noncommunicable diseases, as well as violence and injuries. The purpose of this review is to discuss, in the context of the expansion of transnational alcohol corporations and harms associated with alcohol use, policy options for regulating exposure to alcohol marketing. We first provide an overview of the public health problem of harmful alcohol consumption and describe the association between exposure to alcohol marketing and alcohol consumption. We then discuss the growth and concentration of global alcohol corporations and their marketing practices in low- and middle-income countries, as well as in higher-income societies. We review the use and effectiveness of various approaches for regulating alcohol marketing in various countries before discussing challenges and opportunities to protect public health.

  7. Position of Serbia on the international market of alcoholic beverages

    OpenAIRE

    Đorović, Milutin; Stevanović, Simo; Lazić, Verica

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative analysis of the major indicators of both the world and domestic markets of alcoholic beverages. Namely, for the last 21 years, for the observed subperiods, the method of comparative analysis were used to study quantitative and structural differences in the production and trade of analyzed product groups, at both the world and at the level of continents and some countries. The leading manufacturers and flows of international trade and the leading exporters and...

  8. Position of Serbia on the international market of alcoholic beverages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorović Milutin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparative analysis of the major indicators of both the world and domestic markets of alcoholic beverages. Namely, for the last 21 years, for the observed subperiods, the method of comparative analysis were used to study quantitative and structural differences in the production and trade of analyzed product groups, at both the world and at the level of continents and some countries. The leading manufacturers and flows of international trade and the leading exporters and importers of wine, beer and distilled alcoholic beverages were defined, with special emphasis on the importance of Serbia, i.e. its position in the global market for all these products. Pursuant to the above, and importance of analyzed product groups for the domestic market, i.e. agroindustry and the economy as a whole, this paper specially studies balances, structure, dynamics and regional orientation of foreign trade exchange in wine, beer, and distilled alcoholic beverages. In addition, the paper points to the needs, capabilities, measures and directions of further development of domestic production and export of products analyzed.

  9. Toward Predicting Popularity of Social Marketing Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi

    Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.

  10. Do premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence also predict the failure to recover from alcoholism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim; Nickel, Elizabeth J

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: In a search for viable endophenotypes of alcoholism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism. METHOD: The 202 male subjects who completed a 40-year follow-up were originally selected from...... diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifiers. RESULTS: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were......: cognitive efficiency and early behavioral dyscontrol in childhood. Both factors predicted the failure to remit (low cognitive efficiency and high behavioral dyscontrol) even when lifetime alcoholism severity was controlled. CONCLUSIONS: This 4-decade study found a striking disconnect between measures...

  11. Effects of school, family and alcohol marketing communication on alcohol use and intentions to drink among Thai students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheokao, Jantima K; Kirkgulthorn, Tassanee; Yingrengreung, Siritorn; Singhprapai, Phuwasith

    2013-07-04

    This study explored effects of family, school, and marketing communications on alcohol use and intention to drink of Thai students. We conducted a survey in which 5,184 students participated. Respondents were selected randomly from school districts throughout Thailand. In this survey we measured the exposure to, reception of, and perceptions concerning alcohol marketing communication, school absenteeism and achievement, family alcohol use, students' alcohol use, and drinking intentions. Findings indicated students' low alcohol use, moderate intention to drink, and high prevalence of family drinking. The levels of exposure and also the information receptivity to alcohol media marketing of Thai students were low. The respondents had a high level of media literacy on alcohol marketing communication. Multiple regression and focus group discussions provided support for the contention that there were significant effects of school achievement, absenteeism and media marketing communication on alcohol use (R2 = 14%) and intention to drink (R2 = 11%). Therefore, consideration of relevant school and alcohol policies, including monitoring of media marketing communication, will be needed.

  12. Vulnerability to alcohol-related problems: a policy brief with implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Noel, Jonathan K; Ritson, E Bruce

    2017-01-01

    The concern that alcohol advertising can have detrimental effects on vulnerable viewers has prompted the development of codes of responsible advertising practices. This paper evaluates critically the concept of vulnerability as it applies to (1) susceptibility to alcohol-related harm and (2) susceptibility to the effects of marketing, and describes its implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing. We describe the findings of key published studies, review papers and expert reports to determine whether these two types of vulnerability apply to population groups defined by (1) age and developmental history; (2) personality characteristics; (3) family history of alcoholism; (4) female sex and pregnancy risk; and (5) history of alcohol dependence and recovery status. Developmental theory and research suggest that groups defined by younger age, incomplete neurocognitive development and a history of alcohol dependence may be particularly vulnerable because of the disproportionate harm they experience from alcohol and their increased susceptibility to alcohol marketing. Children may be more susceptible to media imagery because they do not have the ability to compensate for biases in advertising portrayals and glamorized media imagery. Young people and people with a history of alcohol dependence appear to be especially vulnerable to alcohol marketing, warranting the development of new content and exposure guidelines focused on protecting those groups to improve current self-regulation codes promoted by the alcohol industry. If adequate protections cannot be implemented through this mechanism, statutory regulations should be considered. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  13. Analysing News for Stock Market Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Dwivedi, shivam; Bhatt, Jigar P.

    2018-04-01

    Stock market means the aggregation of all sellers and buyers of stocks representing their ownership claims on the business. To be completely absolute about the investment on these stocks, proper knowledge about them as well as their pricing, for both present and future is very essential. Large amount of data is collected and parsed to obtain this essential information regarding the fluctuations in the stock market. This data can be any news or public opinions in general. Recently, many methods have been used, especially big unstructured data methods to predict the stock market values. We introduce another method of focusing on deriving the best statistical learning model for predicting the future values. The data set used is very large unstructured data collected from an online social platform, commonly known as Quindl. The data from this platform is then linked to a csv fie and cleaned to obtain the essential information for stock market prediction. The method consists of carrying out the NLP (Natural Language Processing) of the data and then making it easier for the system to understand, finds and identifies the correlation in between this data and the stock market fluctuations. The model is implemented using Python Programming Language throughout the entire project to obtain flexibility and convenience of the system.

  14. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  15. An investigation of strategies used in alcohol brand marketing and alcohol-related health promotion on Facebook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Megan Sc; Hare, James D; Carrotte, Elise R; Dietze, Paul M

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol brands are incorporating social networking sites (SNS) into their marketing programmes. SNS are also being used to reduce alcohol consumption and harms by health promotion organisations. Marketing via SNS can attempt to influence consumers using a range of strategies from traditional marketing, social media, and behaviour change theory. This study systematically quantifies marketing strategies used by alcohol brands and health promoters on Facebook. We identified the 10 most popular alcohol brands and health promotion organisations in Australia on Facebook and extracted all posts from April 2014. A framework was developed, listing 33 SNS marketing strategies. The frequency of use of each strategy in posts was counted for all profiles. The median number of fans of alcohol brands was 189,290 compared with 7562 for health promotion pages. A total of 210 Facebook posts were analysed. Popular marketing strategies included visual attraction, connecting with other organisations, and links to culture and events. Time-specific and day-specific posts and tweets were used more regularly by alcohol brands than health promotion agencies. Alcohol brands remain substantially more popular than health promotion organisations, and this difference is likely driven by offline factors rather than specific use of marketing strategies. However, health promotion organisations can learn from the strategies used by popular brands, particularly in the use of time and day-specific content.

  16. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicia Alvarez-Aguirre

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents.METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used.RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year.CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

  17. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

  18. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

  19. Alcohol use and the labor market in Uruguay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balsa, Ana I; French, Michael T

    2010-07-01

    This paper is one of only a few studies to examine potential labor market consequences of heavy or abusive drinking in Latin America and the first to focus on Uruguay. We analyzed data from a Uruguayan household survey conducted in 2006 using propensity score matching methods and controlling for a number of socio-demographic, family, regional, behavioral health, and labor market characteristics. As expected, we found a positive association between heavy drinking and absenteeism, particularly for female employees. Counter to the findings for developed countries, our results revealed a positive relationship between heavy drinking and labor force participation or employment. This result was mostly driven by men and weakened when considering more severe measures of abusive drinking. Possible explanations for these findings are that employment leads to greater alcohol use through an income effect, that the Uruguayan labor market rewards heavy drinking, or that labor market characteristics typical of less developed countries, such as elevated safety risks or job instability, lead to problem drinking. Future research with panel data should explore these possible mechanisms. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Stock market prediction using technical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradić-Martinović Aleksandra

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis (TA is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators. It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

  1. Peer, social media, and alcohol marketing influences on college student drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberson, Angela A; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

    2018-07-01

    To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as well as moderation by gender and race. Drinking behavior was directly related to perceived norms and attitudes toward alcohol that develop, in part, from direct and indirect interactions with their online and offline peers, as well as engagement with alcohol-related content on social media. Gender and ethnicity moderated some effects. College student drinking is influenced by friends' alcohol-related content posted on social networking sites and by greater engagement with traditional and online alcohol marketing. College campus alcohol misuse interventions should include components to counter peer influences and alcohol marketing on social media.

  2. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Meriam M; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; van Bon-Martens, Marja J H; van Oers, Hans A M; Garretsen, Henk F L

    2013-06-01

    Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour could not be assessed. More

  3. Measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing on social networking sites: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E

    2014-02-01

    Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices.

  4. Drinking without thinking: an implicit measure of alcohol motivation predicts failure to control alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Greenwald, Anthony G

    2008-11-01

    Addiction is characterized by dyscontrol - substance use despite intentions to restrain. Using a sample of at-risk drinkers, the present study examined whether an implicit measure of alcohol motivation (the Implicit Association Test [IAT]; Greenwald, A.G., McGhee, D.E., & Schwartz, J.L.K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the Implicit Association Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464-1480) would predict dyscontrol of alcohol use. Participants completed an IAT and, to elicit motivation to restrain alcohol use, were instructed that greater consumption in a taste test would impair performance on a later task for which they could win a prize. All participants viewed aversive slides and then completed a thought-listing task. Participants either exerted self-control by suppressing negative affect and thoughts regarding the slides or did not exert self-control. Post-manipulation, the groups did not differ in mood, urge to drink or motivation to restrain consumption. During the subsequent taste test, participants whose self-control resources were depleted consumed more alcohol than did those in the control group. Additionally, the IAT, but not an explicit measure of alcohol motivation, more strongly predicted alcohol use when self-control resources were depleted. The results indicate that the IAT may have utility in predicting dyscontrolled alcohol use.

  5. Predictability of Wave Energy and Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez

    2012-01-01

    The articlw addresses an important challenge ahead the integration of the electricity generated by wave energy conversion technologies into the electric grid. Particularly, it looks into the role of wave energy within the day-ahead electricity market. For that the predictability of the theoretical...... power outputs of three wave energy technologies in the Danish North Sea are examined. The simultaneous and co-located forecast and buoy-measured wave parameters at Hanstholm, Denmark, during a non-consecutive autumn and winter 3-month period form the basis of the investigation. The objective...

  6. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, Richard I; Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-06-29

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect "alibi marketing". To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people.

  7. Framing a public health debate over alcohol advertising: the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth 2002-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H

    2011-05-01

    The experiences of the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth from 2002 to 2008 in re-framing a major public health issue and influencing public policy offer lessons for other public health movements. The Center pioneered new ways to use commercial market research data in public health surveillance and public debate. Combining a steady stream of reports and peer-reviewed articles with state and federal organizing and media advocacy, the Center re-framed a policy debate over alcohol marketing and youth, enabling measurable progress.

  8. Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

    2016-03-01

    To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

  9. Simultaneous alcohol and cannabis expectancies predict simultaneous use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earleywine Mitch

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicts increased negative consequences for users beyond individual or even concurrent use of the two drugs. Given the widespread use of the drugs and common simultaneous consumption, problems unique to simultaneous use may bear important implications for many substance users. Cognitive expectancies offer a template for future drug use behavior based on previous drug experiences, accurately predicting future use and problems. Studies reveal similar mechanisms underlying both alcohol and cannabis expectancies, but little research examines simultaneous expectancies for alcohol and cannabis use. Whereas research has demonstrated unique outcomes associated with simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use, this study hypothesized that unique cognitive expectancies may underlie simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use. Results: This study examined a sample of 2600 (66% male; 34% female Internet survey respondents solicited through advertisements with online cannabis-related organizations. The study employed known measures of drug use and expectancies, as well as a new measure of simultaneous drug use expectancies. Expectancies for simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicted simultaneous use over and above expectancies for each drug individually. Discussion Simultaneous expectancies may provide meaningful information not available with individual drug expectancies. These findings bear potential implications on the assessment and treatment of substance abuse problems, as well as researcher conceptualizations of drug expectancies. Policies directing the treatment of substance abuse and its funding ought to give unique consideration to simultaneous drug use and its cognitive underlying factors.

  10. Current status of alcohol marketing policy--an urgent challenge for global governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally

    2012-03-01

    To review research literature and available information on the extent and impacts of marketing, current policy response and the interests engaged in the policy debate in order to inform recommendations for policy change on alcohol marketing. Relevant literature, including systematic reviews and publicly available information (websites and participant observation) is reviewed and synthesized. Alcohol marketing has expanded markedly in the past 50 years and, while there remains uncertainty about the impact across the population, there is now clear evidence of its impact on the consumption of young people. Few countries have effective policy in place restricting alcohol marketing, and there is a lack of an international response to alcohol marketing which crosses national boundaries. The protection of alcohol marketing has been a major focus for vested interest groups and this has affected governmental response at national and international levels. There has been a lack of non-governmental organization engagement. The policy response to tobacco marketing provides a clear contrast to that of alcohol marketing policy and provides a model for alcohol marketing policy. The global exposure of young people to alcohol marketing requires an urgent policy response. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate model for global governance to control alcohol marketing. There are extant examples of national level legislation achieving comprehensive bans with France's Loi Evin providing a feasible model. Resources from philanthropic organizations to allow non-governmental organization engagement are urgently required, as is engagement by the governmental sector independent of commercial influence. © 2012 The Author, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  11. Reinforcement of Smoking and Drinking: Tobacco Marketing Strategies Linked With Alcohol in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637

  12. Reinforcement of smoking and drinking: tobacco marketing strategies linked with alcohol in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan; Ling, Pamela M

    2011-10-01

    We investigated tobacco companies' knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Tobacco companies' numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use.

  13. Industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing: a systematic review of content and exposure research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    With governments relying increasingly upon the alcohol industry's self-regulated marketing codes to restrict alcohol marketing activity, there is a need to summarize the findings of research relevant to alcohol marketing controls. This paper provides a systematic review of studies investigating the content of, and exposure to, alcohol marketing in relation to self-regulated guidelines. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: SCOPUS, Web of Science, PubMed and PsychINFO. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations and government research centers were also identified. Ninety-six publications met the inclusion criteria. Of the 19 studies evaluating a specific marketing code and 25 content analysis studies reviewed, all detected content that could be considered potentially harmful to children and adolescents, including themes that appeal strongly to young men. Of the 57 studies of alcohol advertising exposure, high levels of youth exposure and high awareness of alcohol advertising were found for television, radio, print, digital and outdoor advertisements. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising has increased over time, even as greater compliance with exposure thresholds has been documented. Violations of the content guidelines within self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are highly prevalent in certain media. Exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly among youth, is also prevalent. Taken together, the findings suggest that the current self-regulatory systems that govern alcohol marketing practices are not meeting their intended goal of protecting vulnerable populations. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  14. Interrelationship between family history of alcoholism and generational status in the prediction of alcohol dependence in US Hispanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, K G; Thomas, N S; Kendler, K S

    2017-01-01

    Both a family history of alcoholism and migration-related factors like US v. foreign nativity increase the risk for developing alcohol use disorders in Hispanic Americans. For this study, we integrated these two lines of research to test whether the relationship between familial alcoholism and alcohol dependence changes with successive generations in the United States. Data were from the waves 1 and 2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Subjects self-identified Hispanic ethnicity (N = 4122; n = 1784 first, n = 1169 second, and n = 1169 third or later generation) and reported ever consuming ⩾12 drinks in a 1-year period. A family history of alcoholism was assessed in first- and second-degree relatives. Analyses predicting the number of alcohol dependence symptoms were path models. Alcohol dependence symptoms were associated with a stronger family history of alcoholism and later generational status. There was a significant interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status; the relationship of familial alcoholism with alcohol dependence symptoms increased significantly with successive generations in the United States, more strongly in women than men. Acculturation partially mediated the interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status on alcohol dependence, although not in the expected direction. Familial alcoholism interacted with generational status in predicting alcohol dependence symptoms in US Hispanic drinkers. This relationship suggests that heritability for alcoholism is influenced by a higher-order environmental factor, likely characterized by a relaxing of social restrictions on drinking.

  15. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

  16. Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A.; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F.; Stamates, Amy L.; O’Connor, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use. PMID:28138317

  17. Alcohol prevention on college campuses: the moderating effect of the alcohol environment on the effectiveness of social norms marketing campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard A; Theall, Katherine P; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-03-01

    Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N= 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets.

  18. Mood and implicit alcohol expectancy processes: predicting alcohol consumption in the laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardell, Jeffrey D; Read, Jennifer P; Curtin, John J; Merrill, Jennifer E

    2012-01-01

    Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAE) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli-including mood states-and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, this study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. College students (N = 146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the laboratory, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the laboratory. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak blood alcohol concentration in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the laboratory for females. The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs-as indicated by longer RTs-predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores the need for

  19. When evidence is not enough: a case study on alcohol marketing legislation in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vendrame, Alan

    2017-01-01

    This case study identifies the influence and mechanisms that the alcohol industry in Brazil has been able to bring to bear to maintain self-regulation in the marketing of beer and many wines set against a trend of increasing alcohol consumption in Brazil, particularly among young people and women. It identifies the forms of power and strategies used by the alcohol industry in Brazil that may be useful for other countries to consider in seeking to move from self-regulation to state regulation of alcohol marketing. A review was conducted of recent legal documents and court cases, as well as the activities of alcoholic beverage industries. Because of an exemption, Brazilian law had established that both beer and many wines are not alcoholic beverages for marketing purposes. These beverages are subjected to industry self-regulation codes. Research shows that beer and wine marketing often violates industry codes, with little or no enforcement of penalties for non-compliance. Attempts to include beer and wine in the legal definition of alcohol have been opposed by the alcohol industry, and the courts have delegated responsibility to the legislature. The recent legal activities surrounding alcohol sales during the 2014 World Cup games in Brazil provide evidence of the alcohol industry's influence on the legislative process. The alcohol industry in Brazil plays a significant role in the formulation of public policies on alcohol, especially regarding the regulation of marketing. This power is exercised by strong lobbying of government officials responsible for public policies. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

  1. Alcohol marketing in the 21st century: new methods, old problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mart, Sarah M

    2011-01-01

    Marketing and advertising for alcoholic beverages is abundant throughout the United States and the rest of the world. Despite the fact that alcohol advertising is related to earlier initiation of drinking, higher rates of consumption, and positive expectancies among youth populations, alcohol companies continue to design new products and related campaigns with youth-friendly attributes. Alcopops and caffeinated alcoholic beverages are two particularly dangerous types of products, and new social networking technologies make direct promotion easy and voluminous. In order to stop the harm from these alcohol products and promotion, advocacy from the research community is imperative. Copyright © 2011 Informa Healthcare USA, Inc.

  2. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-01-01

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse

  3. Red flags on pinkwashed drinks: contradictions and dangers in marketing alcohol to prevent cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mart, Sarah; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2015-10-01

    To document alcohol products and promotions that use the pink ribbon symbol and related marketing materials that associate alcohol brands with breast cancer charities, awareness and survivors. We conducted a basic Boolean public internet search for alcohol products with pink ribbon/breast cancer awareness marketing campaigns. There is strong and growing evidence of alcohol as a contributing cause of several types of cancer, including breast cancer. There is no U-shaped curve for cancer, and threshold of elevated relative risk is as low as one drink a day for certain cancers. We found 17 examples of alcohol product campaigns with websites, press releases and social media posts, along with news articles and blog posts from industry and non-profit organizations regarding alcohol products associated with breast cancer causes and charities. Various cancer charities have entered into alliances with sectors of the alcohol industry that raise funds for breast cancer research, treatment or prevention by promoting the purchase of certain alcoholic beverages. Some alcohol corporations use pink ribbons and other breast cancer-related images, messages and user-generated media to market a product that contributes to cancer disease and death. Therefore, cancer charities should adopt policies to separate them from alliances with the alcohol industry. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. Method A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Conclusion Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or

  5. Essays on predictability of emerging markets growth and financial performance

    OpenAIRE

    Banegas, Maria Ayelen

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of fina...

  6. The commercial use of digital media to market alcohol products: a narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobstein, Tim; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    The rising use of digital media in the last decade, including social networking media and downloadable applications, has created new opportunities for marketing a wide range of goods and services, including alcohol products. This paper aims to review the evidence in order to answer a series of policy-relevant questions: does alcohol marketing through digital media influence drinking behaviour or increases consumption; what methods of promotional marketing are used, and to what extent; and what is the evidence of marketing code violations and especially of marketing to children? A search of scientific, medical and social journals and authoritative grey literature identified 47 relevant papers (including 14 grey literature documents). The evidence indicated (i) that exposure to marketing through digital media was associated with higher levels of drinking behaviour; (ii) that the marketing activities make use of materials and approaches that are attractive to young people and encourage interactive engagement with branded messaging; and (iii) there is evidence that current alcohol marketing codes are being undermined by alcohol producers using digital media. There is evidence to support public health interventions to restrict the commercial promotion of alcohol in digital media, especially measures to protect children and youth. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Examining How Media Literacy and Personality Factors Predict Skepticism Toward Alcohol Advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W

    2016-05-01

    To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages.

  8. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife

    OpenAIRE

    Colell, E.; Bell, S.; Britton, A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. METHODS: Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development...

  9. Peer, Social Media, and Alcohol Marketing Influences on College Student Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberson, Angela A.; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

    2018-01-01

    Objective: To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. Participants: College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Methods: Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as…

  10. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

    2017-01-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

  11. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  12. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  13. Do marketing and alcohol treatment/public health experts think televised alcohol advertisements abide by regulatory guidelines?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Kelly; Cameron, Elaine; Williams, Hannah; Banister, Emma; Donmall, Michael; Higgins, Alan; French, David P

    2018-04-01

    Televised alcohol advertisements in the United Kingdom must abide by the Broadcast Committee of Advertising Practice Code, which provides guidelines concerning advertisements not implying, condoning or encouraging immoderate, irresponsible or antisocial drinking. Previously, 75 per cent of 373 general public respondents were shown one of seven advertisements rated a breach of at least one guideline. This study assessed whether experts in marketing ( n = 25) and alcohol treatment/public health ( n = 25) perceived the same seven television alcohol advertisements as complying with the Broadcast Committee of Advertising Practice Code. Overall, 83 per cent of advertisements were rated as breaching at least one guideline. This provides further proof that self-regulatory alcohol guidelines are not fit for purpose.

  14. Predicting Alcohol Misuse Among College Students in the US and South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Yeon; Ahn, Seokhoon; Lim, Tae-Seop

    2015-01-01

    This study examines contributing factors of alcohol misuse among college students in South Korea and the U.S. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) on measurements of alcohol expectancy, alcohol efficacy, and accommodation resulted in social and personal causes for alcohol misuse. Social causes alone predicted alcohol misuse for both countries. Social factors constituted a much stronger predictor of alcohol misuse among South Korean students than among American students. Practical implications for effective deterrence of student binge drinking are discussed.

  15. Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

    2008-09-01

    Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.

  16. Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    volume helps management set production levels, but if management increases advertising it will undermine the market . This becomes critical for the DoD...34 Corporate Strategy Board. Gaspoz, C. (2008). "Prediction markets as an innovative way to manage R&D portfolios." CAiSE Doctoral Consortium. Montpellier...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition

  17. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and regulations of Rosstandart. Results basing on a sampling of certificates for products directly from retail outlets analysis of the state alcohol and tobacco consumer market of Tatarstan was carried out. Improper filling of the form of the certificate for products was identified violating all existing norms and laws which are strictly prescribed in technical regulations. On the basis of these violations the validity of certificates for products was assessed and the conclusion was made about the products quality. The share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the total sales in the consumer market was assessed. The shortcomings of the inspection authorities to detect counterfeit products were identified. Scientific novelty the consumer market was researched basing on the method of sampling using probability theory and mathematical statistics to estimate the share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan. The error sampling for counterfeit products in the consumer market was defined. Practical significance the obtained results will allow the inspection authorities to better and more accurately identify counterfeit goods and to restrict the access of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer market of Tatarstan. It is necessary to strengthen the role of state regulation of commercial activities in the consumer market of Russia to stop the flow of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer

  18. Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

  19. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765

  20. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect “alibi marketing”. To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people. PMID:28661462

  1. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savell, Emily; Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-01-01

    To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second-reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self-regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non-regulatory initiatives. The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of

  2. Alcohol marketing on YouTube: exploratory analysis of content adaptation to enhance user engagement in different national contexts

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J.

    2018-01-01

    Background We know little about how social media alcohol marketing is utilized for alcohol promotion in different national contexts. There does not appear to be any academic work on online exposure to alcohol marketing via social media in India, and most of the limited research in Australia has focused on Facebook. Hence, the present study extends previous research by investigating alcohol promotion conducted on an under-researched form of social media (YouTube) in two contrasting geographic ...

  3. Alcohol marketing in Africa: not an ordinary business | Obot | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Drug and Alcohol Studies. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 12, No 1 (2013) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  4. STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING CLUSTERING WITH META-HEURISTIC APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Prasanna, S.; Ezhilmaran, D.

    2015-01-01

    Various examinations are performed to predict the stock values, yet not many points at assessing the predictability of the direction of stock index movement. Stock market prediction with data mining method is a standout amongst the most paramount issues to be researched and it is one of the interesting issues of stock market research over several decades. The approach of advanced data mining tools and refined database innovations has empowered specialists to handle the immense measure of data...

  5. STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING CLUSTERING WITH META-HEURISTIC APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Prasanna, S.; Ezhilmaran, D.

    2014-01-01

    Various examinations are performed to predict the stock values, yet not many points at assessing the predictability of the direction of stock index movement. Stock market prediction with data mining method is a standout amongst the most paramount issues to be researched and it is one of the interesting issues of stock market research over several decades. The approach of advanced data mining tools and refined database innovations has empowered specialists to handle the immense measure of data...

  6. Marketing alcohol to young people: implications for industry regulation and research policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M

    2000-12-01

    This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring.

  7. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colell, Esther; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

    2014-11-01

    Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development Study covering ages 33-50 (N=9960), we used multilevel growth models to study the association between labour market categories and longitudinal changes in weekly units of alcohol consumed. In the reference group of full-time employed men alcohol trajectory decreased over the follow-up period (β=-0.14; 95% CI -0.18 to -0.11) while in the reference group of employed women it increased (β=0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.08). Men and women who were 'mainly sick' had significantly steeper declines in their alcohol consumption trajectory. Women who became employed after being homemakers had the steepest increase in alcohol use (β=0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Being employed is a strong determinant of alcohol use for men and women in midlife, making the workplace a good target for health promotion programmes and policies aimed at reducing alcohol use. Caution is needed when interpreting the health effects of alcohol consumption as low alcohol users may have previously been heavy drinkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Alcohol marketing in the Americas and Spain during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Feulner, Melissa; Vendrame, Alan; Monteiro, Maristela

    2017-01-01

    To identify the nature of visual alcohol references in alcohol advertisements during televised broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament matches and to evaluate cross-national differences according to alcohol marketing policy restrictiveness. Content analysis using the Delphi method and identification of in-game sponsorships. Television broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Mexico, Spain and the United States. Eighty-seven alcohol advertisements; 20 matches. Quantitative rating scales, combined with the Delphi rating technique, were used to determine compliance of the alcohol advertisements with the International Alliance for Responsible Drinking's (IARD) Guiding Principles. Recordings of five matches from four countries were also used to identify the number of in- and out-of-game alcohol brand appearances. A total of 86.2% of all unique alcohol advertisements contained at least one violation of IARD's Guiding Principles, with violation rates ranging from 72.7% (Mexico) to 100% (Brazil). Countries with the least restrictive marketing policies had a higher prevalence of violations in guidelines designed to protect minors. There were 2.76 in-game alcohol brand appearances and 0.83 out-of-game alcohol brand appearances per minute. Brand appearances did not differ across countries or according to a country's marketing policy restrictiveness. Self-regulation and statutory policies were ineffective at limiting alcohol advertising during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament television broadcasts. Most advertisements contained content that violated the self-regulation codes, and there were high levels of within-broadcast brand appearances. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  9. Alcohol and tobacco marketing: evaluating compliance with outdoor advertising guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Molly M; Cohen, Deborah A; Schonlau, Matthias; Farley, Thomas A; Bluthenthal, Ricky N

    2008-09-01

    Historically, the alcohol and tobacco industries have been the biggest users of outdoor advertising. However, the 1999 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) outlawed tobacco billboards and transit furniture (e.g., bus, bench) ads, and the Outdoor Advertising Association of America (OAAA) has pledged to voluntarily eliminate ads for alcohol and tobacco within 500 feet of schools, playgrounds, and churches. Outdoor advertisements were observed (2004-2005) in a sample of urban census tracts (106 in pre-Katrina southern Louisiana and 114 in Los Angeles County) to evaluate tobacco and alcohol advertisers' compliance with the MSA and the OAAA Code of Industry Principles. Data were analyzed in 2007-2008. More than one in four tobacco ads in Louisiana failed to comply with the MSA. In Los Angeles, 37% of alcohol ads and 25% of tobacco ads were located within 500 feet of a school, playground, or church; in Louisiana, roughly one in five ads promoting alcohol or tobacco fell within this distance. In Los Angeles, low-income status and the presence of a freeway in the tract were associated with 40% more alcohol and tobacco billboards near children. In Louisiana, each additional major roadway-mile was associated with 4% more tobacco ads-in violation of MSA-and 7% more small ads near schools, playgrounds, and churches; city jurisdiction accounted for 55% of MSA violations and more than 70% of the violations of OAAA guidelines. Cities must be empowered to deal locally with violations of the MSA. Legislation may be needed to force advertisers to honor their pledge to protect children from alcohol and tobacco ads.

  10. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use From Preferential Music Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (pmusic (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huishu Zhang

    Full Text Available Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US stock market is a representative of emerging (developed markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  12. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  13. Theoretical bases analysis of scientific prediction on marketing principles

    OpenAIRE

    A.S. Rosohata

    2012-01-01

    The article presents an overview categorical apparatus of scientific predictions and theoretical foundations results of scientific forecasting. They are integral part of effective management of economic activities. The approaches to the prediction of scientists in different fields of Social science and the categories modification of scientific prediction, based on principles of marketing are proposed.

  14. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  15. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  16. Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?

    OpenAIRE

    Dimpfl, Thomas; Jank, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices’ realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high searches follow high volatility, and high volatility follows high searches. Using the latter feedback effect to predict volatility we find that search queries contain additional information about market...

  17. An intense Nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...

  18. Current Status and Prediction on Development of PE Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Jiao

    2003-01-01

    This article comprehensively analyzes the status of market demand/supply and import/export volumes of PE in the world and in China, and predicts the future development trends in the fields of PE production and consumption.

  19. Internet filters and entry pages do not protect children from online alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Thom, Jeffrey A; Davoren, Sondra; Barrie, Lance

    2014-02-01

    We review programs and policies to prevent children from accessing alcohol marketing online. To update the literature, we present our recent studies that assess (i) in-built barriers to underage access to alcohol brand websites and (ii) commercial internet filters. Alcohol websites typically had poor filter systems for preventing entry of underage persons; only half of the sites required the user to provide a date of birth, and none had any means of preventing users from trying again. Even the most effective commercial internet filters allowed access to one-third of the sites we examined.

  20. Importance of alcohol-related expectations and emotional expressivity for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol in alcohol-dependent patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavinskienė, Justina; Žardeckaitė-Matulaitienė, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of alcohol-dependent patients' emotional expressivity, alcohol-related expectations and socio-demographic factors for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. The study sample consisted of 136 alcohol-dependent patients (100 men and 36 women) undergoing treatment in Kaunas center for addictive disorders. Only higher expression of negative alcohol-related expectations (std. beta=0.192, P=0.023), higher emotional impulse intensity (std. beta=0.229, P=0.021) and higher expression of positive emotional expressiveness (std. beta=0.021, P=0.020) as well as gender (std. beta=0.180, P=0.049), education (std. beta=-0.137, P=0.038) and alcohol dependency treatment conditions (members of support group after rehabilitation program) (std. beta=0.288, P=0.001; std. beta=0.608, P=0.001) were significant factors for predicting the different level of alcohol-dependent patients motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. Negative alcohol-related expectations, emotional impulse intensity and positive emotional expressiveness were significant even though quite weak triggers for alcohol-dependent patients' different level of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. An assumption could be made that by changing these triggers it is possible to change addictive behavior. Copyright © 2014 Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting Heavy Alcohol Use in College Students: Interactions Among Socialization of Coping, Alcohol Use Onset, and Physiological Reactivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanger, Sarah; Abaied, Jamie; Wagner, Caitlin

    2016-05-01

    Early age at onset of alcohol use is a risk factor for later heavy alcohol use, but some individuals are buffered from this risk. To better understand this process, this study investigated the interactive contributions of parental coping suggestions, skin conductance level reactivity (SCLR), and age at onset of alcohol use on heavy alcohol use in college students. College students (N = 146, 77% female) reported their age at onset of alcohol use, frequency of recent heavy alcohol use, and their parents' coping suggestions; SCLR was monitored as participants completed a laboratory challenge task. In addition, students' parents (N = 73, 77% mothers) reported on their coping suggestions. Results indicated that in the presence of physiological risk only (blunted SCLR, late age at onset of alcohol use), higher frequencies of engagement and disengagement parental coping suggestions were protective against heavy alcohol use in college students. However, if both risk factors were present (blunted SCLR, early age at onset of alcohol use), more engagement suggestions predicted more heavy alcohol use among college students. These findings extend previous findings on the impact of parenting on heavy alcohol use among college students and provide novel evidence for the moderating role of sympathetic stress reactivity.

  2. Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-07-01

    We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

  3. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

  4. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-12-15

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

  5. One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

  6. Marketing and alcohol-related traffic fatalities: impact of alcohol advertising targeting minors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ryan C; Geller, E Scott

    2009-10-01

    Alcohol-related youth traffic fatalities continue as a major public-health concern. While state and federal laws can be useful in tackling this problem, the efficacy of many laws has not been empirically demonstrated. We examined the impact of state laws prohibiting alcohol advertising to target minors. Using statistics obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), youth alcohol-related, single-vehicle, driver traffic fatalities were compared by state as a function of whether the state has a law prohibiting alcohol advertising that targets minors. Overall, states possessing this law experienced 32.9% fewer of the above specified traffic fatalities. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that not only are youth drinking rates affected by alcohol advertisements targeting youth, but also drink-driving behaviors. Indeed, we estimate that if this type of legislation were adopted in the 26 states that do not prohibit targeting of minors with alcohol advertising, then 400 youth lives could be saved annually.

  7. Underage access to online alcohol marketing content: a YouTube case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Johnson, Emily; Rabre, Alexander; Darville, Gabrielle; Donovan, Kristin M; Efunbumi, Orisatalabi

    2015-01-01

    With the proliferation of the Internet and online social media use, alcohol advertisers are now marketing their products through social media sites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. As a result, new recommendations have been made by the Federal Trade Commission concerning the self-regulation of digital marketing strategies, including content management on social and digital media sites. The current study sought to determine whether alcohol companies were implementing the self-imposed mandates that they have developed for online marketing. Specifically, we examined whether alcohol companies were implementing effective strategies that would prevent persons under the minimum legal drinking age in the USA from accessing their content on YouTube. We assessed 16 alcohol brands (beer and liquor) associated with the highest prevalence of past 30 day underage alcohol consumption in the USA. Fictitious YouTube user profiles were created and assigned the ages of 14, 17 and 19. These profiles then attempted to access and view the brewer-sponsored YouTube channels for each of the 16 selected brands. Every underage profile, regardless of age, was able to successfully subscribe to each of the 16 (100%) official YouTube channels. On average, two-thirds of the brands' channels were successfully viewed (66.67%). Alcohol industry provided online marketing content is predominantly accessible to underage adolescents. Thus, brewers are not following some of the self-developed and self-imposed mandates for online advertising by failing to implement effective age-restriction measures (i.e. age gates). © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  8. Alcohol Marketing, Communications and Sponsorship Codes of Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Department of Health (Ireland)

    2008-01-01

    In 2002 the Minister for Health and Children met with representative organisations from the Advertising Industry, the Association of Advertisers in Ireland (AAI), representing advertisers, the Institute of Advertising Practitioners in Ireland (IAPI), representing the advertising agencies and Drinks Industry Group Ireland (DIGI) representing the Alcohol Drinks Industry. The discussions centred on the Ministerâ?Ts concerns about some of the content, weight of exposure and placement of alcoh...

  9. Alcohol Marketing, Drunkenness, and Problem Drinking among Zambian Youth: Findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica H. Swahn

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS conducted in Zambia (2004 of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (=2257. Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09–2.02 and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06–1.87 among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  10. Alcohol marketing, drunkenness, and problem drinking among Zambian youth: findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  11. Alcohol Marketing on Twitter and Instagram: Evidence of Directly Advertising to Youth/Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Bates, Austin M; Olusanya, Olufunto; Vinal, Cystal E; Martin, Emily; Peoples, Janiene E; Jackson, Zachary A; Billinger, Shanaisa A; Yusuf, Aishatu; Cauley, Daunte A; Montano, Javier R

    2016-07-01

    Assess whether alcohol companies restrict youth/adolescent access, interaction, and exposure to their marketing on Twitter and Instagram. Employed five fictitious male and female Twitter (n = 10) and Instagram (n = 10) user profiles aged 13, 15, 17, 19 and/or 21. Using cellular smartphones, we determined whether profiles could (a) interact with advertising content-e.g. retweet, view video or picture content, comment, share URL; and/or (b) follow and directly receive advertising material updates from the official Instagram and Twitter pages of 22 alcohol brands for 30 days. All user profiles could fully access, view, and interact with alcohol industry content posted on Instagram and Twitter. Twitter's age-gate, which restricts access for those under 21, successfully prevented underage profiles from following and subsequently receiving promotional material/updates. The two 21+ profiles collectively received 1836 alcohol-related tweets within 30 days. All Instagram profiles, however, were able to follow all alcohol brand pages and received an average of 362 advertisements within 30 days. The quantity of promotional updates increased throughout the week, reaching their peak on Thursday and Friday. Representatives/controllers of alcohol brand Instagram pages would respond directly to our underage user's comments. The alcohol industry is in violation of their proposed self-regulation guidelines for digital marketing communications on Instagram. While Twitter's age-gate effectively blocked direct to phone updates, unhindered access to post was possible. Everyday our fictitious profiles, even those as young as 13, were bombarded with alcohol industry messages and promotional material directly to their smartphones. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  12. Alcohol expectancies longitudinally predict drinking and the alcohol myopia effects of relief, self-inflation, and excess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lac, Andrew; Brack, Nathaniel

    2018-02-01

    Alcohol myopia theory posits that alcohol consumption attenuates information processing capacity, and that expectancy beliefs together with intake level are responsible for experiences in myopic effects (relief, self-inflation, and excess). Adults (N=413) averaging 36.39 (SD=13.02) years of age completed the Comprehensive Effects of Alcohol questionnaire at baseline, followed by alcohol use measures (frequency and quantity) and the Alcohol Myopia Scale one month later. Three structural equation models based on differing construct manifestations of alcohol expectancies served to longitudinally forecast alcohol use and myopia. In Model 1, overall expectancy predicted greater alcohol use and higher levels of all three myopic effects. In Model 2, specifying separate positive and negative expectancy factors, positive but not negative expectancy predicted greater use. Furthermore, positive expectancy and use explained higher myopic relief and higher self-inflation, whereas positive expectancy, negative expectancy, and use explained higher myopic excess. In Model 3, the seven specific expectancy subscales (sociability, tension reduction, liquid courage, sexuality, cognitive and behavioral impairment, risk and aggression, and self-perception) were simultaneously specified as predictors. Tension reduction expectancy, sexuality expectancy, and use contributed to higher myopic relief; sexuality expectancy and use explained higher myopic self-inflation; and risk and aggression expectancy and use accounted for higher myopic excess. Across all three predictive models, the total variance explained ranged from 12 to 19% for alcohol use, 50 to 51% for relief, 29 to 34% for self-inflation, and 32 to 35% for excess. Findings support that the type of alcohol myopia experienced is a concurrent function of self-fulfilling alcohol prophecies and drinking levels. The interpreted measurement manifestation of expectancy yielded different prevention implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  13. Social Marketing Strategies for Campus Prevention of Alcohol and Other Drug Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Robert

    This document sets out one segment of a comprehensive approach intended to assist institutions of higher education in developing and carrying out alcohol abuse and other drug prevention programs. Social marketing is described as a tool of environmental management, that seeks to produce a specified behavior in a target audience. Intended for a…

  14. Exposure to Online Alcohol Marketing and Adolescents' Drinking: A Cross-sectional Study in Four European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-09-01

    The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in four European countries. A total of 9038 students with a mean age of 14.05 (SD 0.82) participated in a school-based survey in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Logistic regression analyses of cross-sectional cross-country survey data were undertaken. Exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising and ownership of alcohol-branded items was estimated to be controlled for relevant confounders. Onset of drinking and binge drinking in the past 30 days were included in the study as outcome variables. Adjusted for relevant confounders, higher exposure to (online) alcohol marketing exposure was found to be related to the odds of starting to drink (p four countries. Active engagement with online alcohol marketing was found to interact more strongly with drinking outcomes than passive exposure to online alcohol marketing. Youngsters in the four European countries report frequent exposure to online alcohol marketing. The association between this exposure and adolescents' drinking was robust and seems consistent across national contexts. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  15. Alcohol-use disorder severity predicts first-incidence of depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; van den Brink, W.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Wall, M.M.; Hasin, D.S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Previous studies suggest that alcohol-use disorder severity, defined by the number of criteria met, provides a more informative phenotype than dichotomized DSM-IV diagnostic measures of alcohol use disorders. Therefore, this study examined whether alcohol-use disorder severity predicted

  16. Alcohol-use disorder severity predicts first-incidence of depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; van den Brink, W.; Penninx, B. W. J. H.; Wall, M. M.; Hasin, D. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background. Previous studies suggest that alcohol-use disorder severity, defined by the number of criteria met, provides a more informative phenotype than dichotomized DSM-IV diagnostic measures of alcohol use disorders. Therefore, this study examined whether alcohol-use disorder severity predicted

  17. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

    OpenAIRE

    Winpenny, Eleanor Margaret; Marteau, Theresa; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. METHODS: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users...

  18. Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahbazi Nima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.

  19. Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    We analyze a binary prediction market in which traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and private information. Realistically, we assume that traders are allowed to invest a limited amount of money (or have decreasing absolute risk aversion). We show that the rational expectations equilibrium...... price underreacts to information. When favorable information to an event is available and is revealed by the market, the price increases and this forces optimists to reduce the number of assets they can (or want to) buy. For the market to equilibrate, the price must increase less than a posterior belief...

  20. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  1. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  2. Point-of-purchase alcohol marketing and promotion by store type--United States, 2000-2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-11

    Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States, accounting for approximately 100,000 deaths annually. Efforts to reduce the adverse health and social consequences from alcohol use include policies to restrict access to alcohol among underaged persons (i.e., persons aged Point-of-purchase (POP) (i.e., on-site) marketing, including alcohol advertising and placement, can increase alcohol sales and consumption substantially, thereby increasing the risk for various alcohol-related health outcomes, including alcohol-impaired driving and interpersonal violence. To assess the type and frequency of POP alcohol marketing, researchers with the ImpacTeen Project collected and analyzed store observation data during 2000-2001 from 3,961 alcohol retailers in 329 communities throughout the United States. This report summarizes the results of the study, which indicate that POP alcohol marketing is extensive in certain store types frequented by teenagers and young adults. Public health agencies and policy makers should work with liquor control boards to reduce POP marketing that could promote risky or underage drinking.

  3. Predicting women's alcohol risk-taking while abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Gabie; Klein, Sarah

    2010-05-01

    Numerous studies have examined risk factors that are associated with heavy alcohol use; however, much of this research has not addressed factors that specifically relate to women's alcohol use. The current study has extended the previous literature on women's alcohol-use behavior by examining factors associated with risky drinking in young women traveling abroad (n = 55). Using a pretest-posttest design, we examined the influence of disinhibition sensation-seeking and endorsement of social enhancement alcohol expectancies in relation to participation in risky alcohol use while abroad for three weeks. Analyses confirmed that disinhibition sensation-seeking and social enhancement alcohol expectancies were associated with participation in risky alcohol-use behaviors while abroad (controlling for alcohol-use at the pretest). Analysis of qualitative data reinforced the importance of social facilitation in women's alcohol risk-taking. Participants' qualitative data also emphasized characteristics of situational disinhibition relating to travel as well as culturally-specific motivations for alcohol-use behaviors. Further research examining women's personal need for disinhibition and the role of situational disinhibition in motivating alcohol risk-taking is warranted. In addition, the current findings suggest that interventions focusing on the connections between alcohol use and enhancement of social relationships and the potential isolating effects of non-use are necessary.

  4. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    Aim To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9–17. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Results Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Conclusion Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. PMID:27864186

  5. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winpenny, Eleanor M; Marteau, Theresa M; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15-24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation.

  6. Exposure of Children and Adolescents to Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506

  7. The role of promotion in alcoholism treatment marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M A; Self, D R; Owens, C A; Kline, T A

    1988-01-01

    This article is an overview of the promotion function as a part of the ATM's marketing mix. It approaches various promotion decision areas from a managerial perspective, focusing upon some key components of promotion planning. Rather than provide specific operational or implementation details (how to write a brochure) it is more conceptual in nature and offers a framework for promotion planners. The article addresses promotion management, promotion objectives, analysis for promotion planning, the promotion mix, and addresses the benefits and limitations of some specific promotion tools available to the ATM manager. It treats ATMs as a service and reveals specific implications for promotion strategy dictated by services. The article also reports promotion tools employed by Alabama ATMs citing data from the Alabama study.

  8. Emotion dysregulation and peer drinking norms uniquely predict alcohol-related problems via motives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Simons, Jeffrey S; Murase, Hanako

    2017-08-01

    This study examined the relationships between emotion dysregulation, peer drinking norms, drinking motives, and alcohol-related outcomes among 435 college students. We examined the mediating roles of drinking motives when predicting alcohol consumption and related problems from the subscales of the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS; Gratz and Roemer, 2004) via negative and positive reinforcement models. First, we hypothesized that individuals who lack in emotion regulation strategies or have difficulties in accepting negative emotions are more likely to drink to cope. Additionally, we hypothesized that individuals who act impulsively or become distracted when upset as well as those with higher peer drinking norms are more likely to drink for social and enhancement motives. The results of the path model indicated that limited access to emotion regulation strategies significantly predicted alcohol-related problems via both depression and anxiety coping motives, but did not predict alcohol consumption. Nonacceptance of emotional responses was not significantly associated with coping motives. Impulsivity had a significant direct relationship with alcohol problems. Difficulty in engaging in goal-directed behaviors predicted both enhancement and social motives, but only enhancement motives in turn predicted consumption. Norms indirectly predicted problems via enhancement motives and consumption. The results indicated that using alcohol to reduce negative or to increase positive emotions increases alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Overall, results advance our understanding of the mechanisms of increased alcohol use and problems among college students. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The sales and marketing practices of English-language internet alcohol vendors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Rebecca S; Schmidt, Allison

    2014-03-01

    This study aimed to fill information gaps about the sales and marketing practices of internet alcohol vendors and their implications for addressing youth access and other legal violations. Further, it aimed to expand the limited scientific literature on internet alcohol sales using systematic survey methods to inform future efforts to regulate this industry and prevent sales to minors. The design was a cross-sectional website content analysis survey. [Not applicable]. A total of 105 internet alcohol vendor websites. Six key content analysis topics were explored: products offered, average prices and proportions of vendors using different promotions, policy statements and methods for age verification, payment and delivery. Websites sell and promote a variety of alcohol products, offered as cheaply as $1.93 for a 750-ml bottle. Vendors rely heavily upon age verification methods that are unlikely to prevent sales to minors. Many vendors advertise shipping of products via methods through which it is illegal or against delivery company policies to transport alcohol, and 99% of vendors accept credit cards. Limiting and enforcing delivery and payment options are types of policy interventions that have been used successfully with internet cigarette vendors that may be applicable to internet alcohol vendors as well. Internet alcohol vendor practices are insufficient to prevent sales to minors, and need further regulation and enforcement of existing policies. Their sales practices are similar to those of internet cigarette vendors prior to regulation, and similar regulatory approaches may be effective in reducing internet alcohol sales to minors. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. Non-invasive separation of alcoholic and non-alcoholic liver disease with predictive modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan-Peter Sowa

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Currently, a major clinical challenge is to distinguish between chronic liver disease caused by metabolic syndrome (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, NAFLD from that caused by long term or excessive alcohol consumption (ALD. The etiology of severe liver disease affects treatment options and priorities for liver transplantation and organ allocation. Thus we compared physiologically similar NAFLD and ALD patients to detect biochemical differences for improved separation of these mechanistically overlapping etiologies. METHODS: In a cohort of 31 NAFLD patients with BMI below 30 and a cohort of ALD patient with (ALDC n = 51 or without cirrhosis (ALDNC n = 51 serum transaminases, cell death markers and (adipo-cytokines were assessed. Groups were compared with One-way ANOVA and Tukey's correction. Predictive models were built by machine learning techniques. RESULTS: NAFLD, ALDNC or ALDC patients did not differ in demographic parameters. The ratio of alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase--common serum parameters for liver damage--was significantly higher in the NAFLD group compared to both ALD groups (each p<0.0001. Adiponectin and tumor necrosis factor(TNF-alpha were significantly lower in NAFLD than in ALDNC (p<0.05 or ALDC patients (p<0.0001. Significantly higher serum concentrations of cell death markers, hyaluronic acid, adiponectin, and TNF-alpha (each p<0.0001 were found in ALDC compared to ALDNC. Using machine learning techniques we were able to discern NAFLD and ALDNC (up to an AUC of 0.9118±0.0056 or ALDC and ALDNC (up to an AUC of 0.9846±0.0018, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning techniques relying on ALT/AST ratio, adipokines and cytokines distinguish NAFLD and ALD. In addition, severity of ALD may be non-invasively diagnosed via serum cytokine concentrations.

  11. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing

  12. The party effect: Prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    Aims To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Design Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. Setting All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. Participants A sample of 2541 respondents with a mean age of 18.1 years (51.6% female) of which 1053 (41%) never had a whole drink of alcohol and 1727 (67%) never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion. Measurements Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all ads as “party” or “non-party” ads. Sociodemographics, sensation seeking, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Findings Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, about half (M = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were “party” ads. If both types of exposures (“party” and “non-party”) were included in the regression model, only “party” exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset (AOR=19.17; 95%CI 3.72–98.79) and binge drinking onset (AOR=3.87; 95%CI 1.07–13.99) after covariate control. Conclusions Adolescents and young adults with higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme had higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset, even after control of exposure to other types of alcohol advertisements. PMID:27343140

  13. Can We Envision a Bettor's Guide to Climate Prediction Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trexler, M.

    2017-12-01

    It's one thing to set up a climate prediction market, it's another to find enough informed traders to make the market work. Climate bets could range widely, from purely scientific or atmospheric metrics, to bets that involve the interplay of science, policy, economic, and behavioral outcomes. For a topic as complex and politicized as climate change, a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions could substantially expand and diversify the pool of individuals trading in the market, increasing both its liquidity and decision-support value. The Climate Web is an on-line and publically accessible Beta version of such a Bettor's Guide, implementing the knowledge management adage: "if only we knew what we know." The Climate Web not only curates the key literature, news coverage, and websites relating to more than 100 climate topics, from extreme event exceedance curves to climate economics to climate risk scenarios, it extracts and links together thousands of ideas and graphics across all of those topics. The Climate Web integrates the many disciplinary silos that characterize today's often dysfunctional climate policy conversations, allowing rapid cross-silo exploration and understanding. As a Bettor's Guide it would allow prediction market traders to better research and understand their potential bets, and to quickly survey key thinking and uncertainties relating to those bets. The availability of such a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions should make traders willing to place more bets than they otherwise would, and should facilitate higher quality betting. The presentation will introduce the knowledge management dimensions and challenges of climate prediction markets, and introduce the Climate Web as one solution to those challenges.

  14. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9-17. MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

  15. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    OpenAIRE

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-01-01

    Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and...

  16. The marketing of alcohol to college students: the role of low prices and special promotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Meichun; Wechsler, Henry; Greenberg, Patty; Lee, Hang

    2003-10-01

    Heavy episodic or binge drinking has been recognized as a major problem on American college campuses affecting the health, safety, and education of students. The present study examines the alcohol environment surrounding college campuses and assesses the impact on students' drinking. This environment includes alcohol promotions, price specials, and advertising at drinking establishments that serve beer for on-premise consumption as well as retail outlets that sell beer for off-premise consumption. The study used student self-report data from the 2001 College Alcohol Study (CAS) and direct observational assessments by trained observers who visited alcohol establishments in communities where the participating colleges were located. The analytic sample included more than 10,000 students as well as 830 on-premise and 1684 off-premise establishments at 118 colleges. Alcohol specials, promotions, and advertisements were prevalent in the alcohol outlets around college campuses. Almost three quarters of on-premise establishments offered specials on weekends, and almost one half of the on-premise establishments and more than 60% of off-premise establishments provided at least one type of beer promotion. The availability of large volumes of alcohol (24- and 30-can cases of beer, kegs, party balls), low sale prices, and frequent promotions and advertisements at both on- and off-premise establishments were associated with higher binge drinking rates on the college campuses. In addition, an overall measure of on- and off-premise establishments was positively associated with the total number of drinks consumed. The regulation of marketing practices such as sale prices, promotions, and advertisements may be important strategies to reduce binge drinking and its accompanying problems.

  17. Perception and reality: a national evaluation of social norms marketing interventions to reduce college students' heavy alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Henry; Nelson, Toben E; Lee, Jae Eun; Seibring, Mark; Lewis, Catherine; Keeling, Richard P

    2003-07-01

    To evaluate a widely used intervention to reduce college student alcohol use, we studied student drinking patterns at colleges that employed social norms marketing programs and those that did not. We examined responses of students in the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study (CAS) 1997, 1999 and 2001 data sets at 37 colleges that employed social norms marketing programs and at 61 that did not. Information about the students' drinking behavior and their familiarity with social norms marketing messages at their schools was analyzed, as were college administrators' reports about the implementation of social norms marketing campaigns. Schools were grouped on the basis of student reports of exposure to programmatic materials. Trend analyses were conducted on seven standard measures of alcohol consumption, including annual and 30-day use, frequency, usual quantity and volume consumed, heavy episodic use, and drunkenness. Almost half of the CAS colleges sampled adopted social norms programs. Those that did were more likely to have large enrollments, not to be religiously affiliated and to have high rates of alcohol use. No decreases were noted in any of the seven measures of alcohol use at schools with social norms programs, even when student exposure and length of program existence were considered. Increases in measures of monthly alcohol use and total volume consumed, however, were observed at schools employing social norms programs. This study does not provide evidence to support the effectiveness of social norms marketing programs, as currently utilized, in reducing alcohol use among college students.

  18. Predicting an Alcohol Use Disorder in Urban American Indian Youths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale

    2014-01-01

    This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…

  19. Hybrid system prediction for the stock market: The case of transitional markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralević Nebojša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the creation and testing of an enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes, including the comparison with the traditional neural network backpropagation model. The objective of the research is to gather information concerning the possibilities of using the enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes focusing on transitional markets. The methodology used involves the integration of fuzzified weights into the neural network. The research results will be beneficial both for the broader investment community and the academia, in terms of the application of the enhanced model in the investment decision-making, as well as in improving the knowledge in this subject matter.

  20. Prediction of mortality at age 40 in Danish males at high and low risk for alcoholism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Nickel, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This prospective high-risk study examined the influence of father's alcoholism and other archival-generated measures on premature death. METHOD: Sons of alcoholic fathers (n = 223) and sons of non-alcoholic fathers (n = 106) have been studied from birth to age 40. Archival predictors...... of premature death included father's alcoholism, childhood developmental data, and diagnostic information obtained from the Psychiatric Register and alcoholism clinics. RESULTS: By age 40, 21 of the 329 subjects had died (6.4%), a rate that is more than two times greater than expected. Sons of alcoholic...... fathers were not more likely to die by age 40. Premature death was associated with physical immaturity at 1-year of age and psychiatric/alcoholism treatment. No significant interactions were found between risk and archival measures. CONCLUSION: Genetic vulnerability did not independently predict death...

  1. A simple risk scoring system for prediction of relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Uffe; Hesse, Morten

    2009-01-01

    Predicting relapse after alcoholism treatment can be useful in targeting patients for aftercare services. However, a valid and practical instrument for predicting relapse risk does not exist. Based on a prospective study of alcoholism treatment, we developed the Risk of Alcoholic Relapse Scale (RARS) using items taken from the Addiction Severity Index and some basic demographic information. The RARS was cross-validated using two non-overlapping samples, and tested for its ability to predict relapse across different models of treatment. The RARS predicted relapse to drinking within 6 months after alcoholism treatment in both the original and the validation sample, and in a second validation sample it predicted admission to new treatment 3 years after treatment. The RARS can identify patients at high risk of relapse who need extra aftercare and support after treatment.

  2. Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

    2015-08-11

    The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

  3. Prediction of non-polar gas solubilities in water, alcohols and aqueous alcohol solutions by the modified ASOG method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tochigi, K.; Kojima, K.

    1982-07-01

    This study evaluated a technique for predicting gas solubilities based on a modified ASOG group-contribution method, considering water, alcohols, and aqueous alcohol solutions as the solvents. The nonpolar gaseous solutes considered were oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, argon, methane, ethane, ethylene, propane, and butane. Gas solubilities were correlated and predicted for a partial gas pressure of 1 atm and a temperature range of 50/sup 0/-100/sup 0/F (10/sup 0/-40/sup 0/C) in pure solvents, and then predicted for the same pressure and temperature range in mixed solvents using only the solubility data for the pure solvents. The deviations between the observed and predicted solubilities averaged 6.0% in pure systems and 10.2% in mixed solvents.

  4. Developmental Relations between Alcohol Expectancies and Social Norms in Predicting Alcohol Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Tim; Treloar Padovano, Hayley; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

    2018-01-01

    Expectations about alcohol's effects and perceptions of peers' behaviors and beliefs related to alcohol use are each shown to strongly influence the timing of drinking onset during adolescence. The present study builds on prior work by examining the conjoint effects of within-person changes in these social-cognitive factors on age of adolescent…

  5. Alcohol

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... because that's how many accidents occur. What Is Alcoholism? What can be confusing about alcohol is that ... develop a problem with it. Sometimes, that's called alcoholism (say: al-kuh-HOL - ism) or being an ...

  6. Alcohol

    Science.gov (United States)

    If you are like many Americans, you drink alcohol at least occasionally. For many people, moderate drinking ... risky. Heavy drinking can lead to alcoholism and alcohol abuse, as well as injuries, liver disease, heart ...

  7. Alcohol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navarro Junior, L.

    1988-01-01

    The alcohol production as a secondary energy source, the participation of the alcohol in Brazilian national economic and social aspects are presented. Statistical data of alcohol demand compared with petroleum by-products and electricity are also included. (author)

  8. Alcohol marketing on YouTube: exploratory analysis of content adaptation to enhance user engagement in different national contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

    2018-01-16

    We know little about how social media alcohol marketing is utilized for alcohol promotion in different national contexts. There does not appear to be any academic work on online exposure to alcohol marketing via social media in India, and most of the limited research in Australia has focused on Facebook. Hence, the present study extends previous research by investigating alcohol promotion conducted on an under-researched form of social media (YouTube) in two contrasting geographic contexts. This study examines and compares the types of strategies used by marketers on Indian and Australian alcohol brands with the greatest YouTube presence, and the extent to which users engage with these strategies. The 10 alcohol brands per country with the greatest YouTube presence were identified based on the number of 'subscriptions'. The number of videos, views per video, and the type of content within the videos were collected for each brand. The data were analyzed using an inductive coding approach, using NVivo 10. The targeted brands had gathered 98,881 subscriptions (Indian brands: n = 13,868; Australian brands: n = 85,013). The type of marketing strategies utilized by brands were a mix of those that differed by country (e.g. sexually suggestive content in India and posts related to the brand's tradition or heritage in Australia) and generic approaches (e.g. encouraging time- and event-specific drinking; demonstrations of food/cocktail recipes; camaraderie; competitions and prize draws; and brand sponsorship at music, sports, and fashion events). This cross-national comparison demonstrates that YouTube provides alcohol marketers with an advertising platform where they utilize tailored marketing approaches to cater to specific national contexts and develop content on the cultural meanings users invoke in their interactions with these strategies. Those exposed to alcohol marketing on YouTube are likely to include those under the legal drinking age.

  9. Do Culture-based Segments Predict Selection of Market Strategy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Jadczaková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Academists and practitioners have already acknowledged the importance of unobservable segmentation bases (such as psychographics yet still focusing on how well these bases are capable of describing relevant segments (the identifiability criterion rather than on how precisely these segments can predict (the predictability criterion. Therefore, this paper intends to add a debate to this topic by exploring whether culture-based segments do account for a selection of market strategy. To do so, a set of market strategy variables over a sample of 251 manufacturing firms was first regressed on a set of 19 cultural variables using canonical correlation analysis. Having found significant relationship in the first canonical function, it was further examined by means of correspondence analysis which cultural segments – if any – are linked to which market strategies. However, as correspondence analysis failed to find a significant relationship, it may be concluded that business culture might relate to the adoption of market strategy but not to the cultural groupings presented in the paper.

  10. The party effect: prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D

    2017-01-01

    To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. A sample of 705 respondents who never had a whole drink of alcohol at baseline (mean age 16.9 years, 53.3% female) and a sample of 1036 who never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion (mean age 17.4 years, 55.8% female). Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all advertisements as 'party' or 'non-party' advertisements. Socio-demographics, sensation-seeking, alcohol expectancies and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, approximately half (median = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were 'party' advertisements. If both types of exposures ('party' and 'non-party') were included in the regression model, only 'party' exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 19.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.72-98.79] and binge drinking onset (AOR = 3.87; 95% CI = 1.07-13.99) after covariate control. Adolescents and young adults in the United States appear to have higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset if they have higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme, independently of the amount of exposure to alcohol advertisements with non

  11. Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents' alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Janssen, Tim; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2015-12-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted the first alcoholic drink and first binge drinking episode in young adolescents using discrete survival analyses. Adolescents were selected from several Dutch secondary schools including both mainstream and special education (externalizing behavioral problems). Participants were 534 adolescents between 12 and 14 years at baseline. Executive functioning and alcohol use were assessed four times over a period of two years. Working memory uniquely predicted the onset of first drink (p=.01) and first binge drinking episode (p=.04) while response inhibition only uniquely predicted the initiating of the first drink (p=.01). These results suggest that the association of executive functioning and alcohol consumption found in former studies cannot simply be interpreted as an effect of alcohol consumption, as weaknesses in executive functioning, found in alcohol naïve adolescents, predict the initiating of (binge) drinking. Though, prolonged and heavy alcohol use might further weaken already existing deficiencies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Self-Reported Youth and Adult Exposure to Alcohol Marketing in Traditional and Digital Media: Results of a Pilot Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Padon, Alisa; Ross, Craig; Borzekowski, Dina

    2017-03-01

    Alcohol marketing is known to be a significant risk factor for underage drinking. However, little is known about youth and adult exposure to alcohol advertising in digital and social media. This study piloted a comparative assessment of youth and adult recall of exposure to online marketing of alcohol. From September to October 2013, a pilot survey of past 30-day exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content in traditional and digital media was administered to a national sample of 1,192 youth (ages 13 to 20) and 1,124 adults (ages ≥21) using a prerecruited Internet panel maintained by GfK Custom Research. The weighted proportions of youth and adults who reported this exposure were compared by media type and by advertising and promotional content. Youth were more likely than adults to recall exposure to alcohol advertising on television (69.2% vs. 61.9%), radio (24.8% vs. 16.7%), billboards (54.8% vs. 35.4%), and the Internet (29.7% vs. 16.8%), but less likely to recall seeing advertising in magazines (35.7% vs. 36.4%). Youth were also more likely to recall seeing advertisements and pictures on the Internet of celebrities using alcohol (36.1% vs. 20.8%) or wearing clothing promoting alcohol (27.7% vs. 15.9%), and actively respond (i.e., like, share, or post) to alcohol-related content online. Youth report greater exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content than adults in most media, including on the Internet. These findings emphasize the need to assure compliance with voluntary industry standards on the placement of alcohol advertising and the importance of developing better tools for monitoring youth exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly on the Internet. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  13. Evaluating the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M; Adkins, Amy

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science Study, a longitudinal study of students' substance use and emotional health. Participants were e-mailed an online survey that queried campaign readership, perception of peer alcohol use, alcohol consumption, frequency of consumption, and frequency of blackouts. Associations between variables were evaluated using path analysis. We found that campaign readership was associated with more accurate perceptions of peer alcohol use, which, in turn, was associated with self-reported lower number of drinks per sitting and experiencing fewer blackouts. This evaluation supports the use of social norms marketing as a population-level intervention to correct alcohol-use misperceptions and reduce blackouts.

  14. Predicting academic problems in college from freshman alcohol involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, P K; Sher, K J; Erickson, D J; DeBord, K A

    1997-03-01

    The present article examines the relation of problematic alcohol use to collegiate academic problems based on a systematic assessment of problematic alcohol use and college transcript data. The degree to which this prospective association can be explained by reference to third variables is also explored. These third variables include: students' high school academic achievement and aptitude, concurrent drug use, participation in deviant behaviors and students' investment or participation in the college experience. A sample of 444 (240 female) college freshman recruited for a longitudinal study of alcohol use was followed for 6 years. Alcohol and drug involvement, general deviance, academic investment, campus involvement and several background variables were assessed during the freshman year. Additional measures of high school aptitude and achievement as well as collegiate performance were calculated based on college transcript data from all institutions attended. A latent variable structural equation model revealed that problematic alcohol use during the freshman year correlated +.32 with collegiate academic problems. No evidence was found for a unique association between the two constructs when additional constructs were included in the model. Specifically, the association was substantially reduced when preexisting student differences traditionally associated with academic failure in college were taken into account. The inclusion of concurrent drug use and deviance also resulted in a significant reduction in the magnitude of the association. Although a substantial bivariate association exists between problematic alcohol use and academic problems during college, much of this association appears attributable to preexisting student differences on admission to college.

  15. Do daily fluctuations in inhibitory control predict alcohol consumption? : An ecological momentary assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jones, Andrew; Tiplady, Brian; Houben, Katrijn; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Field, Matt

    RATIONALE: Deficient inhibitory control is predictive of increased alcohol consumption in the laboratory; however, little is known about this relationship in naturalistic, real-world settings. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we implemented ecological momentary assessment methods to investigate the

  16. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ido Erev

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/. The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction, but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.

  17. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-06-19

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

  18. Digital Marketing- A Study on Internet Advertising, SMS Advertising and Blog with emphasis on Alcohol Brands in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Wai Fong

    2007-01-01

    The dynamic evolution of technologies offers boundless opportunities for marketing communication, especially for alcohol brands in Malaysia which are in the “semi-dark market” environment and are restricted from mass advertising, the introduction of digital marketing certainly gave rise to a new ray of hope. The aim of this study is to examine the consumers’ response toward the three marketing communication choices i.e. Internet ad, SMS ad and blog and recommend the method to capitalise on th...

  19. Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Serrano Iglesias

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. Materials and Methods: The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. Results: The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0–55 kcal/0–13 g for soft drinks; 2–60 kcal/0–14.5 g for energy drinks; 24–31 kcal/5.8–7.5 g for sports drinks; 1–32 kcal/0–7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14–69 kcal/2.6–17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43–78 kcal/6.1–14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33–88 kcal/3.6–14 g for dairy drinks. Conclusion: The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day.

  20. Reward System Activation in Response to Alcohol Advertisements Predicts College Drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Andrea L; Rapuano, Kristina M; Sargent, James D; Heatherton, Todd F; Kelley, William M

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess whether activation of the brain's reward system in response to alcohol advertisements is associated with college drinking. Previous research has established a relationship between exposure to alcohol marketing and underage drinking. Within other appetitive domains, the relationship between cue exposure and behavioral enactment is known to rely on activation of the brain's reward system. However, the relationship between neural activation to alcohol advertisements and alcohol consumption has not been studied in a nondisordered population. In this cross-sectional study, 53 college students (32 women) completed a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan while viewing alcohol, food, and control (car and technology) advertisements. Afterward, they completed a survey about their alcohol consumption (including frequency of drinking, typical number of drinks consumed, and frequency of binge drinking) over the previous month. In 43 participants (24 women) meeting inclusion criteria, viewing alcohol advertisements elicited activation in the left orbitofrontal cortex and bilateral ventral striatum-regions of the reward system that typically activate to other appetitive rewards and relate to consumption behaviors. Moreover, the level of self-reported drinking correlated with the magnitude of activation in the left orbitofrontal cortex. Results suggest that alcohol cues are processed within the reward system in a way that may motivate drinking behavior.

  1. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swahn, Monica H; Palmier, Jane B; Benegas-Segarra, Agnes; Sinson, Fe A

    2013-12-10

    A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths' drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5,290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI=1.06-3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI=1.05-2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI =1.06-2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  2. The Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment: a scoring system to predict the risk of relapse to any alcohol use after liver transplant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigue, James R; Hanto, Douglas W; Curry, Michael P

    2013-12-01

    Alcohol relapse after liver transplant heightens concern about recurrent disease, nonadherence to the immunosuppression regimen, and death. To develop a scoring system to stratify risk of alcohol relapse after liver transplant. Retrospective medical record review. All adult liver transplants performed from May 2002 to February 2011 at a single center in the United States. The incidence of return to any alcohol consumption after liver transplant. Thirty-four percent (40/118) of patients with a history of alcohol abuse/dependency relapsed to use of any alcohol after liver transplant. Nine of 25 hypothesized risk factors were predictive of alcohol relapse after liver transplant: absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, tobacco dependence, continued alcohol use after liver disease diagnosis, low motivation for alcohol treatment, poor stress management skills, no rehabilitation relationship, limited social support, lack of nonmedical behavioral consequences, and continued engagement in social activities with alcohol present. Each independent predictor was assigned an Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA) risk value of 1 point, and patients were classified into 1 of 4 groups by ARRA score: ARRA I = 0, ARRA II = 1 to 3, ARRA III = 4 to 6, and ARRA IV = 7 to 9. Patients in the 2 higher ARRA classifications had significantly higher rates of alcohol relapse and were more likely to return to pretransplant levels of drinking. Alcohol relapse rates are moderately high after liver transplant. The ARRA is a valid and practical tool for identifying pretransplant patients with alcohol abuse or dependency at elevated risk of any alcohol use after liver transplant.

  3. One size (never) fits all: segment differences observed following a school-based alcohol social marketing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-04-01

    According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. A sample of 371 year 10 students (aged: 14-16 years; 51.4% boys) participated in a prospective (pre-post) multisite alcohol social marketing program. Game On: Know Alcohol (GO:KA) program included 6, student-centered, and interactive lessons to teach adolescents about alcohol and strategies to abstain or moderate drinking. A repeated measures design was used. Baseline demographics, drinking attitudes, drinking intentions, and alcohol knowledge were cluster analyzed to identify segments. Change on key program outcome measures and satisfaction with program components were assessed by segment. Three segments were identified; (1) Skeptics, (2) Risky Males, (3) Good Females. Segments 2 and 3 showed greatest change in drinking attitudes and intentions. Good Females reported highest satisfaction with all program components and Skeptics lowest program satisfaction with all program components. Three segments, each differing on psychographic and demographic variables, exhibited different change patterns following participation in GO:KA. Post hoc analysis identified that satisfaction with program components differed by segment offering opportunities for further research. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  4. ALCOHOL I

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite the increase in alcohol marketing activities by the transnational alcohol corporations in Nigeria .... were recorded with a digital device with ..... era (i.e., before alcohol industry was es- tablished in ..... university student drinking: A na-.

  5. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  6. Marketing messages in food and alcohol magazine advertisements, variations across type and nutritional content of promoted products: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, A; Burke, W; Adams, J

    2014-09-01

    'Marketing messages' are the themes used in advertisements to promote products. We explored the frequency of different marketing messages used in food and alcohol advertisements in UK women's magazines and associations with the type and nutritional content of products promoted. All advertisements for food and alcohol in 108 issues of popular UK monthly women's magazines were identified and text-based marketing messages classified using a bespoke coding framework. This information was linked to existing data on the type (i.e. food group) and nutritional content of advertised products. A total of 2 687 marketing messages were identified in 726 advertisements. Consumer messages such as 'taste' and 'quality' were most frequently found. Marketing messages used in advertisements for food and alcohol were notably different. The relationship between type and nutritional content of products advertised and marketing messages used was not intuitive from a consumer perspective: advertisements for foods 'high in fat and/or sugar' were less likely to use messages related to health, but more likely to use messages emphasizing reduced amounts of specific nutrients. Almost all advertisements included consumer-related marketing messages. Marketing messages used were not always congruent with the type or nutritional content of advertised products. These findings should be considered when developing policy. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.

  8. Carlsberg alibi marketing in the UEFA euro 2016 football finals: implications of Probably inappropriate alcohol advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Rachael; Breton, Magdalena Opazo; Britton, John; Cranwell, Jo; Grant-Braham, Bruce

    2018-04-25

    Alcohol advertising is a key driver of alcohol consumption, and is prohibited in France by the Loi Evin. In 2016 the Danish brewer Carlsberg sponsored the UEFA Euro 2016 finals, held in France, and used the alibis 'Probably' and '…the best in the world' in place of Carlsberg in pitch-side advertising. We have quantified the advertising exposure achieved during the final seven games in the UEFA Euro 2016 championship. Appearances of the Carlsberg alibis 'Probably' and 'the best in the world' were counted and timed to the nearest second during all active play in live coverage of quarter final, semi-final and final matches broadcast in the UK. We used census data and viewing figures from Kantar Media to estimate gross and per capita impressions of these advertisements in the UK population. In 796 min, 29 s of active play there were 746 alibi appearances, totalling 68 min 35 s duration and representing 8.6% of active playing time. Appearances were particularly frequent at the end of normal time, extra time and penalties. The seven matches delivered up to 7.43 billion Carlsberg alibi impressions to UK adults and 163.3 million to children. In the only match involving a second country with laws prohibiting alcohol advertising (France versus Iceland), exposure occurred for only 1.8% of playing time. Alibi marketing achieved significant advertising coverage during the final seven EURO 2016 championship games, particularly to children. Since 'Probably' is registered by Carlsberg as a wordmark this advertising appears to contravene the Loi Evin, though Carlsberg have defended their marketing actions.

  9. The composition of alcohol products from markets in Lithuania and Hungary, and potential health consequences: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Sarsh, Bart; Rehm, Jürgen

    2009-01-01

    The rates of alcohol-attributable mortality in Lithuania and Hungary have been shown to be higher than those in most other European countries. Quality of alcohol products is investigated as a possible explanation. In a descriptive pilot study, a convenience sample of alcohol products was collected from local city markets in both countries (Lithuania n = 10, Hungary n = 15) and chemical analyses, including some that have not been done in prior studies, were conducted. The parameters studied were alcoholic strength, volatiles (methanol, acetaldehyde, higher alcohols), ethyl carbamate, anions (including nitrate) and inorganic elements (including lead). Additionally, a multi-target screening analysis for toxicologically relevant substances was conducted. The majority of samples (64%) had an alcohol content between 35% vol. and 40% vol., being in accordance with the typical strength of legal spirits in Europe. Three samples containing significantly higher concentrations of alcohol above 60% vol. were found to be unrecorded alcohol products, defined as any alcohol that is outside of legal and taxed production. Screening analysis showed that those samples contained various flavourings, including the hepatotoxic substance coumarin, at concentrations above the legal limit for foods. All other substance classes under study were found to be at levels of no toxicological concern. Although some problems with the quality of the alcohol samples were found, there is insufficient evidence from this pilot study to conclude that alcohol quality has an influence on health as reflected in alcohol-attributable mortality rates. Given the extent of alcohol-attributable disease burden in central and eastern European countries, future research should focus on collection of large, representative samples, particularly of unrecorded sources, which was the most problematic product group in our study.

  10. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stautz, Kaidy; Brown, Kyle G; King, Sarah E; Shemilt, Ian; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-06-09

    Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome), explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes). Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students) found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34). A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students) did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = -0.05, 0.37). Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals) may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1.69 units for females. The generalizability of this finding

  11. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaidy Stautz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Methods Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome, explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes. Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Results Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34. A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = −0.05, 0.37. Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Conclusions Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1

  12. Prediction of gas hold-up for alcohol solutions in a draft-tube bubble column

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albijanić Boris V.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction of the overall gas hold-up (εg, in the diluted solutions of C -C alcohols in draft - tube bubble column, by applying several newly proposed correlations and some of the well-known equations. Experiments were carried out in a column, consisting of two coaxial glass tubes, with a single sparger. Gas phase was air, while the liquid phases were aqueous solutions of alcohols, in concentrations of 0.5% w/w and 1% w/w. Overall gas hold-up was determined by applying volume expansion technique. The following order for εg values was observed: water < methanol < ethanol < n-propanol < n-butanol. Concentration of the applied alcohol appeared to be less significant than the .sort of alcohol itself. The best newly proposed correlation enables predicting of our experimental data with the average square deviation of empirical formula: s2=0.58 E-04.

  13. The marketing potential of corporate social responsibility activities: the case of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantani, Daniela; Peltzer, Raquel; Cremonte, Mariana; Robaina, Katherine; Babor, Thomas; Pinsky, Ilana

    2017-01-01

    The aims were to: (1) identify, monitor and analyse the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and (2) examine whether the alcohol industry is using these actions to market their products and brands. Nine health experts from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay conducted a content analysis of 218 CSR activities using a standardized protocol. A content rating procedure was used to evaluate the marketing potential of CSR activities as well as their probable population reach and effectiveness. The LEAD procedure (longitudinal, expert and all data) was applied to verify the accuracy of industry-reported descriptions. A total of 55.8% of the actions were found to have a marketing potential, based on evidence that they are likely to promote brands and products. Actions with marketing potential were more likely to reach a larger audience than actions classified with no marketing potential. Most actions did not fit into any category recommended by the World Health Organization; 50% of the actions involving classroom and college education for young people were found to have marketing potential; 62.3% were classified as meeting the definition of risk management CSR. Alcohol industry Corporate Social Responsibility activities in Latin America and the Caribbean appear to have a strategic marketing role beyond their stated philanthropic and public health purpose. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  14. Policy-relevant behaviours predict heavier drinking and mediate the relationship with age, gender and education status: Analysis from the International Alcohol Control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Parry, Charles D H; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Piazza, Marina

    2018-02-21

    To investigate behaviours related to four alcohol policy variables (policy-relevant behaviours) and demographic variables in relation to typical quantities of alcohol consumed on-premise in six International Alcohol Control study countries. General population surveys with drinkers using a comparable survey instrument and data analysed using path analysis in an overall model and for each country. typical quantities per occasion consumed on-premise; gender, age; years of education, prices paid, time of purchase, time to access alcohol and liking for alcohol advertisements. In the overall model younger people, males and those with fewer years of education consumed larger typical quantities. Overall lower prices paid, later time of purchase and liking for alcohol ads predicted consuming larger typical quantities; this was found in the high-income countries, less consistently in the high-middle-income countries and not in the low middle-income country. Three policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase, liking for alcohol ads) mediated the relationships between age, gender, education and consumption in high-income countries. International Alcohol Control survey data showed a relationship between policy-relevant behaviours and typical quantities consumed and support the likely effect of policy change (trading hours, price and restrictions on marketing) on heavier drinking. The path analysis also revealed policy-relevant behaviours were significant mediating variables between the effect of age, gender and educational status on consumption. However, this relationship is clearest in high-income countries. Further research is required to understand better how circumstances in low-middle-income countries impact effects of policies. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  15. Maternal risk factors predicting child physical characteristics and dysmorphology in fetal alcohol syndrome and partial fetal alcohol syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene

    2011-12-01

    Previous research in South Africa revealed very high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), of 46-89 per 1000 among young children. Maternal and child data from studies in this community summarize the multiple predictors of FAS and partial fetal alcohol syndrome (PFAS). Sequential regression was employed to examine influences on child physical characteristics and dysmorphology from four categories of maternal traits: physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to predict influences on child physical characteristics. Individual sequential regressions revealed that maternal drinking measures were the most powerful predictors of a child's physical anomalies (R² = .30, p < .001), followed by maternal demographics (R² = .24, p < .001), maternal physical characteristics (R²=.15, p < .001), and childbearing variables (R² = .06, p < .001). The SEM utilized both individual variables and the four composite categories of maternal traits to predict a set of child physical characteristics, including a total dysmorphology score. As predicted, drinking behavior is a relatively strong predictor of child physical characteristics (β = 0.61, p < .001), even when all other maternal risk variables are included; higher levels of drinking predict child physical anomalies. Overall, the SEM model explains 62% of the variance in child physical anomalies. As expected, drinking variables explain the most variance. But this highly controlled estimation of multiple effects also reveals a significant contribution played by maternal demographics and, to a lesser degree, maternal physical and childbearing variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Does industry self-regulation protect young people from exposure to alcohol marketing? A review of compliance and complaint studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is considered to be potentially harmful to adolescents. In addition to statutory regulation, industry self-regulation is a common way to protect adolescents from alcohol marketing exposures. This paper critically reviews research designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the alcohol industry's compliance procedures to manage complaints when alcohol marketing is considered to have violated a self-regulatory code. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: PubMed, SCOPUS, PsychINFO and CINAHL. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations, government research centers and national industry advertising associations were also included. The search process yielded three peer-reviewed papers, seven non-peer reviewed reports published by academic institutes and non-profit organizations and 20 industry reports. The evidence indicates that the complaint process lacks standardization across countries, industry adjudicators may be trained inadequately or biased and few complaints are upheld against advertisements pre-determined to contain violations of a self-regulatory code. The current alcohol industry marketing complaint process used in a wide variety of countries may be ineffective at removing potentially harmful content from the market-place. The process of determining the validity of complaints employed by most industry groups appears to suffer from serious conflict of interest and procedural weaknesses that could compromise objective adjudication of even well-documented complaints. In our opinion the current system of self-regulation needs major modifications if it is to serve public health objectives, and more systematic evaluations of the complaint process are needed. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Predicting problematic alcohol use with the DSM-5 alternative model of personality pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

    2016-01-01

    High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. [Alcohol].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zima, T

    1996-07-14

    Alcohol is one of the most widely used addictive substances. It can be assumed that everybody encounters alcohol--ethanol in various forms and concentrations in the course of their lives. A global and social problem of our civilization is alcohol consumption which has a rising trend. Since 1989 the consumption of alcoholic beverages is rising and the mean annual consumption of concentrated ethanol per head is cea 10 litres. In ethanol abuse the organism is damaged not only by ethanol alone but in particular by substances formed during its metabolism. Its detailed knowledge is essential for the knowledge and investigations of the metabolic and toxic effect of ethanol on the organism. Ingested alcohol is in 90-98% eliminated from the organism by three known metabolic pathways: 1-alcohol dehydrogenase, 2-the microsomal ethanol oxidizing system and 3-catalase. Alcohol is a frequent important risk factor of serious "diseases of civilization" such as IHD, hypertension, osteoporosis, neoplastic diseases. Cirrhosis of the liver and chronic pancreatitis are the well known diseases associated with alcohol ingestion and also their most frequent cause. It is impossible to list all organs and diseases which develop as a result of alcohol consumption. It is important to realize that regular and "relatively" small amounts in the long run damage the organism and may be even fatal.

  19. Reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes through the use of social marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities.

  20. Abusive alcohol consumption among adolescents: a predictive model for maximizing early detection and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas Ferreira, M; de Moraes, C L; Braga, J U; Reichenheim, M E; da Veiga, G V

    2018-03-17

    To present a predictive model of alcohol abuse among adolescents based on prevalence projections in various population subgroups. Cross-sectional study. The sample consisted of 785 adolescents enrolled in the second year of high school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Alcohol consumption was assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Socio-economic, demographic, family, individuals, and school-related variables were examined as potential predictors. The logit model was used to estimate the prevalence projections. Model fitting was examined in relation to the observed data set, and in a subset, that was generated from 200 subsamples of individuals via a bootstrap process using general fit estimators, discrimination, and calibration measures. About 25.5% of the adolescents were classified as positive for alcohol abuse. Being male, being 17-19 years old, not living with mothers, presenting symptoms suggestive of binge eating, having used a strategy of weight reduction in the last 3 months, and, especially, being a victim of family violence were important predictors of abusive consumption of alcohol. While the model's prevalence projection in the absence of these features was 8%, it reaches 68% in the presence of all predictors. Knowledge of predictive characteristics of alcohol abuse is essential for screening, early detection of positive cases, and establishing interventions to reduce consumption among adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Exposure to online alcohol marketing and adolescents' drinking : A cross-sectional study in four European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordi F.; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in

  2. Exposure to online alcohol marketing and adolescents' drinking: A cross-sectional study in four European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, A. de; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Anderson, P.D.; Bujalski, M.; Gosselt, J.; Schreckenberg, D.; Wohtge, J.; Leeuw, R.N.H. de

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in

  3. Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

    2011-01-01

    Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…

  4. Evaluating the Effect of a Campus-Wide Social Norms Marketing Intervention on Alcohol-Use Perceptions, Consumption, and Blackouts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M.; Adkins, Amy

    2018-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. Participants: 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science…

  5. [The Collage Impression Scoring Scale (CIISS) may help predict sobriety for alcoholics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itoh, Mitsuru; Ishii, Takayoshi

    2009-08-01

    The Collage Impression Scoring Scale (CISS; Imamura, 2004) was used by 54 raters to score collages made by 24 alcoholics on admission to the hospital and at discharge. The CISS contains three factors: stability, expression and creativity. Comparisons using paired t-tests showed that the collages made at discharge had lower scores on the three CISS factors than the collages made on admission. The results for 11 alcoholics, who were followed for six months after discharge, showed that the scores for CISS factors for the abstinent group were lower than those for the relapsed drinking group. The abstinent group showed more anxiety than the relapsed drinking group. This result suggests that the abstinent alcoholics'anxieties were projected onto the collages because they were facing their internal problems more seriously. Thus the CISS was effective as a predictive index for alcoholics who maintain sobriety.

  6. Polygenic scores predict alcohol problems in an independent sample and show moderation by the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatore, Jessica E; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C; Evans, David M; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M

    2014-04-10

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems-derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)-predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07-0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  7. Polygenic Scores Predict Alcohol Problems in an Independent Sample and Show Moderation by the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Salvatore

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems—derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female—predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14 in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female. We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07–0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01. Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b, p-values (p, and percent of variance (R2 accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively. Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  8. Six-month changes in spirituality and religiousness in alcoholics predict drinking outcomes at nine months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Elizabeth A R; Krentzman, Amy R; Webb, Jon R; Brower, Kirk J

    2011-07-01

    Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self.

  9. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

    2009-02-06

    The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and

  10. Do child's psychosocial functioning, and parent and family characteristics predict early alcohol use? The TRAILS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Verhulst, Frank C; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2015-02-01

    Given the negative consequences of early alcohol use for health and social functioning, it is essential to detect children at risk of early drinking. The aim of this study is to determine predictors of early alcohol use that can easily be detected in Preventive Child Healthcare (PCH). We obtained data from the first two waves on 1261 Dutch adolescents who participated in TRAILS (TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey) at ages 10-14 years and from the PCH records regarding ages 4-10 years. Early adolescence alcohol use (age 10-14 years) was defined as alcohol use at least once at ages 10-12 years (wave 1) and at least once in the previous 4 weeks at ages 12-14 years (wave 2). Predictors of early alcohol use concerned parent and teacher reports at wave 1 and PCH registrations, regarding the child's psychosocial functioning, and parental and socio-demographic characteristics. A total of 17.2% of the adolescents reported early alcohol use. Predictors of early alcohol use were teacher-reported aggressive behaviour [odds ratios (OR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.86; 1.11-3.11], being a boy (OR 1.80, 95%-CI 1.31-2.56), being a non-immigrant (OR 2.31, 95%CI 1.05-5.09), and low and middle educational level of the father (OR 1.71, 95%CI 1.12-2.62 and OR 1.77, 95%CI 1.16-2.70, respectively), mutually adjusted. A limited set of factors was predictive for early alcohol use. Use of this set may improve the detection of early adolescence alcohol use in PCH. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  11. A randomized trial of three marketing strategies to disseminate a screening and brief alcohol intervention programme to general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E

    1999-09-01

    Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy for dissemination of SBI to GPs.

  12. Predicting support for restricting food marketing to youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goren, Amir; Harris, Jennifer L; Schwartz, Marlene B; Brownell, Kelly D

    2010-01-01

    To address the obesity crisis, public health experts recommend major reductions in the marketing of unhealthy food to youth. However, policies to restrict food marketing are not currently viewed as politically feasible. This paper examines attitudes and knowledge about food marketing and support for restricting unhealthy food marketing [corrected] among one group of constituents: parents. A survey of 807 parents found that those most likely to support food marketing restrictions were also more likely to have negative views of current food practices. [corrected] These findings suggest that increased public education about the harm caused by food marketing may increase public support for policy interventions.

  13. Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

    2017-05-31

    Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

  14. Exploring college students' use of general and alcohol-related social media and their associations with alcohol-related behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors. Public and private university students (N = 637) participated November and December 2011 and April 2012. College students completed online surveys to measure their exposure to social and online media generally, as well as their alcohol-related digital media use and alcohol use. Use of social media related to alcohol marketing predicted alcohol consumption and engaging in risky behaviors, whereas the use of social media more generally did not. Students' use of alcohol-related social media-marketing content associates with their problem drinking. Results have implications for alcohol abuse reduction efforts targeted at college students and suggest the importance of considering social, cultural, and cognitive factors in campaign planning and design.

  15. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  16. Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikuláš Gangur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Electronic virtual markets can serve as an alternative tool for collecting information that is spread among numerous experts. This is the principal market functionality from the operators’ point of view. On the other hand it is profits that are the main interest of the market participants. What they expect from the market is liquidity as high as possible and the opportunity for unrestricted trading. Both the operator and the electronic market participant can be considered consumers of this particular market with reference to the requirements for the accuracy of its outputs but also for the market liquidity. Both the above mentioned groups of consumers (the operators and the participants themselves expect protection of their specific consumer rights, i.e. securing the two above mentioned functionalities of the market. These functionalities of the electronic market are, however, influenced by many factors, among others by participants’ activity. The article deals with the motivation tools that may improve the quality of the prediction market. In the prediction electronic virtual market there may be situations in which the commonly used tools for increasing business activities described in the published literature are not significantly effective. For such situations we suggest a new type of motivation incentive consisting in penalizing the individual market participants whose funds are not placed in the market. The functionality of the proposed motivation incentive is presented on the example of the existing data gained from the electronic virtual prediction market which is actively operated.

  17. What is the Predictive Power of Market Orientation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Langerak (Fred)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThe majority of studies on market orientation claim that compelling evidence exists that market orientation has a positive effect on business performance. This study takes a closer look at forty studies that have addressed the relationship between market orientation and business

  18. Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

  19. Alcohol

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... created when grains, fruits, or vegetables are fermented . Fermentation is a process that uses yeast or bacteria to change the sugars in the food into alcohol. Fermentation is used to produce many necessary items — everything ...

  20. Impulsive suicide attempts predict post-treatment relapse in alcohol-dependent patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojnar, Marcin; Ilgen, Mark A; Jakubczyk, Andrzej; Wnorowska, Anna; Klimkiewicz, Anna; Brower, Kirk J

    2008-10-01

    The present study was designed to examine the influence of suicidality on relapse in alcohol-dependent patients. Specifically, a lifetime suicide attempt at baseline was used to predict relapse in the year after treatment. Also, the unique contribution of impulsive suicide attempts was examined. A total of 154 patients with alcohol dependence, consecutively admitted to four addiction treatment facilities in Warsaw, Poland participated in the study. Of the 154 eligible patients, 118 (76.6%) completed a standardized follow-up assessment at 12 months. Previous suicide attempts were common in adults treated for alcohol dependence with 43% patients in the present sample reporting an attempt at some point during their lifetime. Additionally, more than 62% of those with a lifetime suicide attempt reported making an impulsive attempt. Lifetime suicide attempts were not associated with post-treatment relapse (chi-square=2.37, d.f.=1, p=0.124). However, impulsive suicide attempts strongly predicted relapse (OR=2.81, 95% CI=1.13-6.95, p=0.026) and time to relapse (OR=2.10, 95% CI=1.18-3.74, p=0.012) even after adjusting for other measures of baseline psychopathology, depression, impulsivity, hopelessness and alcohol use severity. This study is the first to document the relationship between pre-treatment impulsive suicide attempts and higher likelihood of post-treatment relapse in alcohol-dependent patents. Clinicians should routinely conduct an assessment for previous suicide attempts in patients with alcohol use disorders, and when impulsive suicidality is reported, they should recognize the increased risk for relapse and formulate their patients' treatment plans accordingly with the goals of reducing both alcoholic relapse and suicide rates.

  1. Nature of events and alcohol-related content in marketing materials at a university freshers' fair: a summative content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, A; Fleming, K M; Szatkowski, L; Bains, M

    2017-12-15

    The transition to university is a potentially influential time upon students' drinking behaviour. This study explored the nature of activities and alcohol-related content in marketing materials from student-led societies and local businesses provided to students, at a university freshers' fair in the UK. All marketing materials handed out at the fair were collected across the 5-day event in September 2015. Written and visual content was analysed using a summative qualitative content analysis. Most student-led societies promoted social events they were hosting (n = 530), most of which took place in a drinking venue or referred to drinking (n = 335). Only four explicitly alcohol-free events were promoted. Student-led societies also promoted activities relating to their interest, e.g. sports training (n = 519), a small proportion of which had references to drinking and drinking venues (n = 54). Three societies provided promotional handouts from local bars or nightclubs. Local bars, pubs and nightclubs promoted events they hosted (n = 81) as well as alcoholic drink promotions (n = 79) and alcohol branded advertising (n = 22), albeit infrequently for the latter. In the first week of university, students are exposed to alcohol-related events, promotions and advertising, which may act as an incentive to participate in drinking. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264

  3. Prediction of the solubility of selected pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols with a group contribution method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelczarska, Aleksandra; Ramjugernath, Deresh; Rarey, Jurgen; Domańska, Urszula

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The prediction of solubility of pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols was presented. ► Improved group contribution method UNIFAC was proposed for 42 binary mixtures. ► Infinite activity coefficients were used in a model. ► A semi-predictive model with one experimental point was proposed. ► This model qualitatively describes the temperature dependency of Pharms. -- Abstract: An improved group contribution approach using activity coefficients at infinite dilution, which has been proposed by our group, was used for the prediction of the solubility of selected pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols [B. Moller, Activity of complex multifunctional organic compounds in common solvents, PhD Thesis, Chemical Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2009]. The solubility of 16 different pharmaceuticals in water, ethanol and octan-1-ol was predicted over a fairly wide range of temperature with this group contribution model. The predicted values, along with values computed with the Schroeder-van Laar equation, are compared to experimental results published by us previously for 42 binary mixtures. The predicted solubility values were lower than those from the experiments for most of the mixtures. In order to improve the prediction method, a semi-predictive calculation using one experimental solubility value was implemented. This one point prediction has given acceptable results when comparison is made to experimental values

  4. Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

    2011-10-01

    The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

  5. Can human rights standards help protect children and youth from the detrimental impact of alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Audrey R

    2017-01-01

    The alcohol industry in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region promotes demand for alcohol products actively through a number of channels, including advertising and sponsorship of sports and other events. This paper evaluates whether human rights instruments that Latin American countries have ratified can be used to limit children's exposure to alcohol advertising and promotion. A review was conducted of the text of, and interpretative documents related to, a series of international and regional human rights instruments ratified by most countries in the LAC region that enumerate the right to health. The Convention on the Rights of the Child has the most relevant provisions to protect children and youth from alcohol promotion and advertising. Related interpretive documents by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child affirm that corporations hold duties to respect and protect children's right to health. Human rights norms and law can be used to regulate or eliminate alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities in the Latin American region. The paper recommends developing a human rights based Framework Convention on Alcohol Control to provide guidance. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Patient and practitioner characteristics predict brief alcohol intervention in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, E F; Heather, N; Brodie, J; Lock, C A; McAvoy, B R

    2001-10-01

    The effectiveness of an evidence-based health care intervention depends on it being delivered consistently to appropriate patients. Brief alcohol intervention is known to be effective at reducing excessive drinking and its concomitant health and social problems. However, a recent implementation trial reported partial delivery of brief alcohol intervention by general practitioners (GPs) which is likely to have reduced its impact. To investigate patient-practitioner characteristics influencing brief alcohol intervention in primary care. Cross-sectional analysis of 12,814 completed Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) screening questionnaires. Eighty-four GPs who had implemented a brief alcohol intervention programme in a previous trial based in the Northeast of England. GPs were requested to screen all adults (aged over 16 years) presenting to their surgery and follow a structured protocol to give a brief intervention (five minutes of advice plus an information booklet) to all 'risk' drinkers. Anonymized carbon copies of the screening questionnaire were collected from all practices after a three-month implementation period. Although AUDIT identified 4080 'risk' drinkers, only 2043 (50%) received brief intervention. Risk drinkers that were most likely to receive brief intervention were males (58%), unemployed (61%), and technically-trained patients (55%). Risk drinkers that were least likely to receive brief intervention were females (44%), students (38%), and university educated patients (46%). Logistic regression modelling showed that patients' risk status was the most influential predictor of brief intervention. Also, GPs' experience of relevant training and longer average practice consultations predicted brief intervention. However, personal characteristics relating to patients and GPs also predicted brief intervention in routine practice. Interpersonal factors relating to patients and practitioners contributed to the selective provision of brief

  7. International codes and agreements to restrict the promotion of harmful products can hold lessons for the control of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Jane; Lobstein, Tim; Godfrey, Fiona; Johns, Paula; Brookes, Chris; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims The 2011 UN Summit on Non-Communicable Disease failed to call for global action on alcohol marketing despite calls in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-20 to restrict or ban alcohol advertising. In this paper we ask what it might take to match the global approach to tobacco enshrined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and suggest that public health advocates can learn from the development of the FCTC and the Code of Marketing on infant formula milks and the recent recommendations on restricting food marketing to children. Methods Narrative review of qualitative accounts of the processes that created and monitor existing codes and treaties to restrict the marketing of consumer products, specifically breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco. Findings The development of treaties and codes for market restrictions include: (i) evidence of a public health crisis; (ii) the cost of inaction; (iii) civil society advocacy; (iv) the building of capacity; (v) the management of conflicting interests in policy development; and (vi) the need to consider monitoring and accountability to ensure compliance. Conclusion International public health treaties and codes provide an umbrella under which national governments can strengthen their own legislation, assisted by technical support from international agencies and non-governmental organizations. Three examples of international agreements, those for breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco, can provide lessons for the public health community to make progress on alcohol controls. Lessons include stronger alliances of advocates and health professionals and better tools and capacity to monitor and report current marketing practices and trends. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Working Memory Ability Predicts Trajectories of Early Alcohol Use in Adolescents: The Mediational Role of Impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khurana, Atika; Romer, Dan; Betancourt, Laura M.; Brodsky, Nancy L.; Giannetta, Joan M.; Hurt, Hallam

    2012-01-01

    Aims 1) To evaluate the role of pre-existing weakness in working memory ability (WM) as a risk factor for early alcohol use as mediated by different forms of impulsivity. 2) To assess the adverse effects of progressive alcohol use on variations in WM over time. Design, Setting and Participants A community sample of 358 adolescents [48% males, Meanage(baseline) = 11.4± 0.87 years] from a longitudinal cohort design, assessed annually over four consecutive years with less than 6% attrition. Measurements Repeated assessments were conducted for the following key variables: WM (based on performance on four separate tasks), frequency of alcohol use (AU), and three forms of impulsivity, namely sensation seeking (SS), acting-without-thinking (AWT) and delay discounting (DD). Latent growth curve modeling procedures were used to identify individual trajectories of change for all key variables. Findings Weakness in WM (at baseline) significantly predicted both concurrent alcohol use and increased frequency of use over the four waves (p memory (WM) rather than a cause of it. Efforts to reduce early alcohol use should consider the distinct roles of different impulsivity dimensions, in addition to WM, as potential targets of intervention. PMID:23033972

  9. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Early emotional trauma in alcohol-dependent men: prevalence, associations and predictive value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Fortunata Donadon

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several studies have indicated that early emotional traumas (EET are highly prevalent in alcohol-dependent individuals, and that these traumas work as risk factors for the development of this disorder. Objective The aim of the current study is to evaluate the EET associations and predictive value regarding active alcohol dependence among male individuals from a developing country. Methods The sample consisted of two groups. The first was composed by adult male individuals diagnosed as alcohol dependents (AG, N = 110, and the second with no alcohol abuse and/or dependence diagnosis (CG, N = 110. Both groups were evaluated using Structured Clinical Interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; Early Emotional Trauma Inventory; and a sociodemographic questionnaire. Results All trauma subtypes (general, physical, emotional and sexual were more prevalent among AG than CG. However, only traumas categorized as general and emotional worked as risk factor for alcoholism development and they increased the chances to develop this disorder by 1.45 and 1.23 times, respectively. Discussion EETs are important factors that should be taken into account in interventions that aim to prevent, minimize and/or treat this clinical condition and its impact and/or severity, especially in countries such as Brazil.

  11. A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

    2013-01-24

    Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. ACTRN12612000384853.

  12. When are they old enough to drink? Outcomes of an Australian social marketing intervention targeting alcohol initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Andrews, Kelly; Francis, Kate L; Akram, Muhammad

    2018-04-01

    This paper reports on the evaluation of an Australian whole-of-community social marketing intervention targeting social norms, which aimed to reduce inflated perceptions of the prevalence of underage drinking and increase the age at which alcohol initiation is considered acceptable. A community-wide intervention was delivered in a single community over a period of 2 years, targeting adolescents, parents and community members. Pre-and post-intervention computer-assisted telephone interview surveys were conducted in the intervention and a matched comparison (control) community. A total of 417 respondents completed both surveys (215 in the intervention community and 202 in the control community). The intervention community saw an increase of 6 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable for young people to have a sip/taste of alcohol and 5 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable to have weak/watered down alcohol. Furthermore, there was a reduction in the perception of the prevalence of alcohol consumption by young people to a level consistent with actual underage drinking rates. In comparison, the control community saw no change in any of these variables. This study provides preliminary evidence that a whole-of-community social marketing intervention can change perceptions of the prevalence, and acceptability, of underage drinking. Given the central role of social norms in decisions regarding alcohol consumption, these changes have the potential to reduce parental supply and thus underage drinking. © 2018 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  13. Alcohol

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to do. Wondering if adding a glass of wine or beer might help lower your blood glucose if it is high? The effects of alcohol can be unpredictable and it is not recommended as a treatment for high blood glucose. The risks likely outweigh any benefit that may be seen in blood glucose alone. ...

  14. Predicting Post-Treatment-Initiation Alcohol Use among Patients with Severe Mental Illness and Alcohol Use Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.

    2009-01-01

    Few investigators studying alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of posttreatment alcohol outcomes. In the present study, a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model was used to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post-treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of…

  15. Sobering stories: narratives of self-redemption predict behavioral change and improved health among recovering alcoholics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlop, William L; Tracy, Jessica L

    2013-03-01

    The present research examined whether the production of a narrative containing self-redemption (wherein the narrator describes a positive personality change following a negative experience) predicts positive behavioral change. In Study 1, we compared the narratives of alcoholics who had maintained their sobriety for over 4 years with those of alcoholics who had been sober 6 months or less. When describing their last drink, the former were significantly more likely to produce a narrative containing self-redemption than the latter. In Study 2, we examined the relation between the profession of self-redemption and behavioral change using a longitudinal design, by following the newly sober alcoholics from Study 1 over time. Although indistinguishable at initial assessment, newly sober alcoholics whose narratives included self-redemption were substantially more likely to maintain sobriety in the following months, compared to newly sober alcoholics who produced nonredemptive narratives; 83% of the redemptive group maintained sobriety between assessments, compared to 44% of nonredemptive participants. Redemptive participants in Study 2 also demonstrated improved health relative to the nonredemptive group. In both studies, the effects of self-redemption on sobriety and health held after controlling for relevant personality traits, alcohol dependence, recovery program involvement, initial physical and mental health, and additional narrative themes. Collectively, these results suggest that the production of a self-redemptive narrative may stimulate prolonged behavioral change and thus indicate a potentially modifiable psychological process that exhibits a major influence on recovery from addiction. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  16. Targeted intervention: Computational approaches to elucidate and predict relapse in alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinz, Andreas; Deserno, Lorenz; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Smolka, Michael N; Beck, Anne; Schlagenhauf, Florian

    2017-05-01

    Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and addiction in general is characterized by failures of choice resulting in repeated drug intake despite severe negative consequences. Behavioral change is hard to accomplish and relapse after detoxification is common and can be promoted by consumption of small amounts of alcohol as well as exposure to alcohol-associated cues or stress. While those environmental factors contributing to relapse have long been identified, the underlying psychological and neurobiological mechanism on which those factors act are to date incompletely understood. Based on the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse, animal experiments showed that drug, cue and stress exposure affect Pavlovian and instrumental learning processes, which can increase salience of drug cues and promote habitual drug intake. In humans, computational approaches can help to quantify changes in key learning mechanisms during the development and maintenance of alcohol dependence, e.g. by using sequential decision making in combination with computational modeling to elucidate individual differences in model-free versus more complex, model-based learning strategies and their neurobiological correlates such as prediction error signaling in fronto-striatal circuits. Computational models can also help to explain how alcohol-associated cues trigger relapse: mechanisms such as Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer can quantify to which degree Pavlovian conditioned stimuli can facilitate approach behavior including alcohol seeking and intake. By using generative models of behavioral and neural data, computational approaches can help to quantify individual differences in psychophysiological mechanisms that underlie the development and maintenance of AUD and thus promote targeted intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foxcroft David R

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between

  18. Factors Predictive of Alcohol Consumption among Elderly People in a Rural Community: A Case Study in Phayao Province Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hongthong, D.; Wongchaiya, P.; Somrongthong, R.; Kumar, R.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Alcohol consumption is recognized as a public health issue. Study objectives were to identify factors predictive of alcohol consumption among elderly people in Phayao province Thailand, where there was high prevalence of alcohol consumption. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. Four hundred elderly people participated in a survey. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the factors predictive of alcohol consumption among the study subjects. Results: One thirds of elderly (31.7 percent) had consumed alcohol in their lifetime, and (15.7 percent) of them were current drinkers. Following univariate analysis, seven factors included gender, working, sickness, smoking, quality of life (QOL), daily activities and economic recession were identified as being significantly associated with drinking (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed four factors to be predictive of alcohol among elderly people: gender (OR=6.02, 95 percent CI=3.58-10.13), smoking (OR=4.34, 95 percent CI=2.57-7.34), economic recession (OR=2.79, 95 percent, CI=1.66-4.71), and QOL (OR=1.86, 95 percent, CI=1.09-3.16). Conclusion: Gender (male) and smoking were strongly predictive factors of elderly alcohol consumption. Hence, an effort to reduce alcohol consumption should be placed on male elderly and those who smoke. (author)

  19. Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

    2015-05-01

    Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

  20. Maternal factors predicting cognitive and behavioral characteristics of children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie A; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M

    2013-06-01

    To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs). Multivariate correlation techniques were used with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first-grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and used in structural equation models (SEMs) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and nonverbal) and behavior. A first SEM using only 7 maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05) but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status [SES], and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Although other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD.

  1. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

    2005-02-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models

  2. Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions

    OpenAIRE

    JS Armstrong; Philip D. Hutcherson

    2005-01-01

    Role -playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior re search, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p

  3. Importance of alcohol-related expectations and emotional expressivity for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol in alcohol-dependent patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justina Slavinskienė

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: Negative alcohol-related expectations, emotional impulse intensity and positive emotional expressiveness were significant even though quite weak triggers for alcohol-dependent patients’ different level of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. An assumption could be made that by changing these triggers it is possible to change addictive behavior.

  4. Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu; Akagi, Fumio

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task because of the highly nonlinear nature of the financial time series. In this study, we apply an artificial neural network (ANN) that can map any nonlinear function without a prior assumption to predict the return of the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. (1) To improve the effectiveness of prediction algorithms, we propose a new set of input variables for ANN models. (2) To verify the prediction ability of the selected input variables, we predict returns for the Nikkei 225 index using the classical back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. (3) Global search techniques, i.e., a genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), are employed to improve the prediction accuracy of the ANN and overcome the local convergence problem of the BP algorithm. It is observed through empirical experiments that the selected input variables were effective to predict stock market returns. A hybrid approach based on GA and SA improve prediction accuracy significantly and outperform the traditional BP training algorithm.

  5. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  6. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael King

    Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  7. Predictive Capacity of Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R) in alcohol use disorder outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia

    2016-06-14

    to investigate the ability to predict the outcome of alcohol use disorders through Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R). this is a prospective study consisting of 237 outpatients with alcohol use disorders who underwent follow-up treatment for 6 months and whose personality traits were studied using TCI-R. At the end of that period, the scores of each TCI-R trait were analyzed in terms of those who remained in treatment and those who dropped out. The whole group scored highly in novelty seeking (NS) and harm avoidance (HA) and produced low scores in self-directedness (SD), these last traits are considered prominent. The drop-out group scored significantly (p=.004) higher in novelty seeking (NS) than the follow-up group. Also, when the score was higher than the 67 percentile the likelihood of abandoning the treatment was 1.07 times higher. Cloninger's temperament and character inventory is a good instrument to predict the outcome of treatment of patients with alcohol use disorders and the novelty seeking (NS) dimension is strongly related to therapeutic drop-out.

  8. The commercial use of segmentation and predictive modeling techniques for database marketing in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, PC; Spring, PN; Hoekstra, JC; Leeflang, PSH

    Although the application of segmentation and predictive modeling is an important topic in the database marketing (DBM) literature, no study has yet investigated the extent of adoption of these techniques. We present the results of a Dutch survey involving 228 database marketing companies. We find

  9. Friends' Alcohol-Related Social Networking Site Activity Predicts Escalations in Adolescent Drinking: Mediation by Peer Norms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesi, Jacqueline; Rothenberg, W Andrew; Hussong, Andrea M; Jackson, Kristina M

    2017-06-01

    Adolescents' increased use of social networking sites (SNS) coincides with a developmental period of heightened risk for alcohol use initiation. However, little is known regarding associations between adolescents' SNS use and drinking initiation nor the mechanisms of this association. This study examined longitudinal associations among adolescents' exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS postings, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms, and initiation of drinking behaviors. Participants were 658 high-school students who reported on posting of alcohol-related SNS content by self and friends, alcohol-related injunctive norms, and other developmental risk factors for alcohol use at two time points, 1 year apart. Participants also reported on initiation of three drinking behaviors: consuming a full drink, becoming drunk, and heavy episodic drinking (three or more drinks per occasion). Probit regression analyses were used to predict initiation of drinking behaviors from exposure to alcohol-related SNS content. Path analyses examined mediation of this association by peer injunctive norms. Exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS content predicted adolescents' initiation of drinking and heavy episodic drinking 1 year later, controlling for demographic and known developmental risk factors for alcohol use (i.e., parental monitoring and peer orientation). In addition, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms statistically mediated the relationship between alcohol-related SNS exposure and each drinking milestone. Results suggest that social media plays a unique role in contributing to peer influence processes surrounding alcohol use and highlight the need for future investigative and preventive efforts to account for adolescents' changing social environments. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.

  11. Predictability of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Kung, James J.

    2009-01-01

    Using the Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index from the first trading day in 1975 to the last trading day in 2007, we investigate the predictability of two popular technical rules (variable-length moving average and trading range breakout) in the Taiwan stock market and assess its bearing on market efficiency. Our results show that, for the two rules, returns from buy signals are generally higher than those from sell signals. In addition, they exhibit considerable predictive power over 1975-1...

  12. Use of marketing to disseminate brief alcohol intervention to general practitioners: promoting health care interventions to health promoters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F

    2000-11-01

    Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group.

  13. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Qiu

    Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  14. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  15. The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

  16. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to describe concepts and assumptions of predictive marketing analytics in reference to decision making. In particular, we highlight issues pertaining to the importance of data and the modern approach to data analysis and processing with the purpose of solving real marketing problems that companies encounter in business. Methodology: In this paper authors provide two study cases showing how, and to what extent predictive marketing analytics work can be useful in practice e.g., investigation of the marketing environment. The two cases are based on organizations operating mainly on Web site domain. The fi rst part of this article, begins a discussion with the explanation of a general idea of predictive marketing analytics. The second part runs through opportunities it creates for companies in the process of building strong competitive advantage in the market. The paper article ends with a brief comparison of predictive analytics versus traditional marketing-mix analysis. Findings: Analytics play an extremely important role in the current process of business management based on planning, organizing, implementing and controlling marketing activities. Predictive analytics provides the actual and current picture of the external environment. They also explain what problems are faced with the company in business activities. Analytics tailor marketing solutions to the right time and place at minimum costs. In fact they control the effi ciency and simultaneously increases the effectiveness of the firm. Practical implications: Based on the study cases comparing two enterprises carrying business activities in different areas, one can say that predictive analytics has far more been embraces extensively than classical marketing-mix analyses. The predictive approach yields greater speed of data collection and analysis, stronger predictive accuracy, better obtained competitor data, and more transparent models where one can

  17. Predicting the Market Potential Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halmet Bradosti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this analysis is to forecast a mini-market sales volume for the period of twelve months starting August 2015 to August 2016. The study is based on the monthly sales in Iraqi Dinar for a private local mini-market for the month of April 2014 to July 2015. As revealed on the graph and of course if the stagnant economic condition continues, the trend of future sales is down-warding. Based on time series analysis, the business may continue to operate and generate small revenues until August 2016. However, due to low sales volume, low profit margin and operating expenses, the revenues may not be adequate enough to produce positive net income and the business may not be able to operate afterward. The principal question rose from this is the forecasting sales in the region will be difficult where the business cycle so dynamic and revolutionary due to systematic risks and unforeseeable future.

  18. A rapid situation assessment of the market for surrogate and illegal alcohols in Tallinn, Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pärna, Kersti; Lang, Katrin; Raju, Kadi; Väli, Marika; McKee, Martin

    2007-01-01

    To understand the phenomenon of consumption of surrogate and illegal alcohols in Tallinn, capital of Estonia. This study, conducted in Tallinn in May 2006, used rapid situation assessment. Interviews with key informants in relevant settings such as emergency departments of hospitals, accommodation for the homeless, police etc. (n = 22), with alcohol abusers (n = 33), natural observations of surrogate sale and consumption venues (n = 46), and tracking of trade data were carried out. Key informants confirmed that consumption of illegal and surrogate alcohols are widely used by alcohol abusers, a finding confirmed by the alcohol abusers. Availability of surrogates varied by area of the city, mainly sold from street kiosks. Illegally produced spirits were also easily available. Sales of surrogates appear to have increased in recent years. A range of alcohol-containing substances that appear to be easily available at low cost, and that have high concentration of ethanol or contaminants known to be toxic, were identified in Tallinn. Alcohol policies in Estonia should address the consumption and availability of these substances.

  19. Application of the Fractional Diffusion Equation for Predicting Market Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan M. Blackledge

    2010-01-01

    Most Financial modelling system rely on an underlying hypothesis known as the Eficient Market Hypothesi (EMH) including the famous BlackScholes formula for placing an option. However, the EMH has a fundamental flaw: it is based on the assumption that economic processes are normally distributed and it has long been known that this is not the case. This fundamental assumption leads to a number of shortcomings associated with using the EMH to analyse financial data which includes failure to pred...

  20. Predicting Market Direction from Direct Speech by Business Leaders

    OpenAIRE

    Drury, Brett M.; Almeida, José João

    2012-01-01

    Direct quotations from business leaders can communicate to the wider public the latent state of their organization as well as the beliefs of the organization's leaders. Candid quotes from business leaders can have dramatic effects upon the share price of their organization. For example, Gerald Ratner in 1991 stated that his company's products were crap and consequently his company (Ratners) lost in excess of 500 million pounds in market value. Information in quotes from business leaders can b...

  1. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

    2005-02-08

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

  2. Predicting the In-Hospital Responsiveness to Treatment of Alcoholics. Social Factors as Predictors of Outcome. Brain Damage as a Factor in Treatment Outcome of Chronic Alcoholic Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascia, George V.; And Others

    The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…

  3. Looking into the glass: glassware as an alcohol marketing tool, and the implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stead, Martine; Angus, Kathryn; Macdonald, Laura; Bauld, Linda

    2014-01-01

    To examine how glassware functions as a marketing tool. Content analysis of trade journals. Glassware is used as an integral part of marketing activity to recruit customers, revive brands, build profits and increase consumption. Glassware should be subject to the same control as other forms of marketing. Glasses could be re-engineered to promote safer drinking.

  4. Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. McMillan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.

  5. Can We Predict the Winner in a Market with Network Effects? Competition in Cryptocurrency Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Gandal

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyze how network effects affect competition in the nascent cryptocurrency market. We do so by examining early dynamics of exchange rates among different cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin essentially dominates this market, our data suggest no evidence of a winner-take-all effect early in the market. Indeed, for a relatively long period, a few other cryptocurrencies competing with Bitcoin (the early industry leader appreciated much more quickly than Bitcoin. The data in this period are consistent with the use of cryptocurrencies as financial assets (popularized by Bitcoin, and not consistent with winner-take-all dynamics. Toward the end of our sample, however, things change dramatically. Bitcoin appreciates against the USD, while other currencies depreciate against the USD. The data in this period are consistent with strong network effects and winner-take-all dynamics. This trend continues at the time of writing.

  6. Intelligent Online Marketing : Predicting Conversion Rate Of New Keywords

    OpenAIRE

    Engström, Tommy

    2013-01-01

    This thesis looks at the problem of predicting conversion rate of keywords in Google Adwords where little or no data for the keyword is available. Several methods are investigated and tested on data belonging to three different real world clients. The methods try to predict the conversion rate only given the keyword text. All methods are compared, using two different evaluation methods, with results showing good potential. Finally further improvements are suggested that could have a big impac...

  7. Venous malformations: MR imaging features that predict skin burns after percutaneous alcohol embolization procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayad, Laura M.; Hazirolan, Tuncay; Carrino, John A.; Bluemke, David A.; Mitchell, Sally

    2008-01-01

    To examine the value of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for predicting the occurrence of skin burns in patients with venous malformations who undergo percutaneous alcohol embolization was the objective of the study. Pre-procedural MR imaging at 1.5 T from 40 patients with venous malformations who had undergone percutaneous alcohol embolization was retrospectively reviewed by two observers for these features: anatomic location, definition (well-defined or ill-defined), and the presence of skin, subcutaneous tissue, muscle, tendon, bone, joint, and deep venous system involvement. One observer recorded the length of skin involvement and volume of the malformation. Univariate and multivariate analysis tests were used to determine whether an association between the occurrence of skin burns and MR imaging features existed. The anatomic locations of the venous malformations were the lower extremity (20 out of 40), upper extremity (11 out of 40), trunk (four out of 40), head/neck (three out of 40) and pelvis (two out of 40). Of the 40 subjects, 15% (six out of 40) experienced skin burns. There was a significant association between the absence of muscle involvement (p=0.0198) as well as the length of skin involvement (p=0.027), with the occurrence of skin burns. Malformation size and all other features were not significantly associated with skin burns. Skin burns in patients with venous malformations treated with alcohol embolization are associated with the length of skin involvement and with the absence of deeper tissue involvement, as depicted on MR imaging. (orig.)

  8. Nalmefene and alcohol dependence: a new approach or the same old unacceptable marketing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braillon A

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Alain Braillon,1,* Bernard Granger,2,*1Alcohol Treatment Unit, University Hospital, Amiens, France; 2Psychiatry, Tarnier Hospital (AP-HP, Paris, France*Both authors contributed equally to this work“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep”. Saul BellowPaille and Martini’s review on nalmefene for alcohol dependence deserves some comment.1 Read the original article  

  9. DATA MINING TWITTER TO PREDICT STOCK MARKET MOVEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim PECIONCHIN

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we apply sentiment analysis of Twitter data from July through December, 2013 to find correlation between users’ sentiments and NASDAQ closing price and trading volume. Our analysis is based on the Affective Norms for English Words (ANEW. We propose a novel way of determining weighted mood level based on PageRank algorithm. We find that sentiment data is Granger-causal to financial market performance with high degree of significance. “Happy” and “sad” sentiment variables’ lags are strongly correlated with closing price and “excited” and “calm” lags are strongly correlated with trading volume.

  10. Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in the WHO African Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Shield, Kevin; Kraicer-Melamed, Hannah; Ferreira-Borges, Carina; Rehm, Jürgen

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region, by country. First, a comprehensive systematic literature search was performed to identify all published and unpublished studies. Then, several meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted to estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population for countries in the WHO African Region with two or more studies available. Lastly, for countries with less than two studies or no known data predictions were obtained using regression modelling. The estimated prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population ranged from 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-2.8%; Equatorial Guinea) to 12.6% (95% CI: 9.9-15.4%; Cameroon) in Central Africa, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3%; Seychelles) to 20.5% (95% CI: 16.4-24.7%; Uganda) in Eastern Africa, 5.7% (95% CI: 4.4-7.1%; Botswana) to 14.2% (95% CI: 11.1-17.3%; Namibia) in Southern Africa, 6.6% (95% CI: 5.0-8.3%; Mauritania) to 14.8% (95% CI: 11.6-17.9%; Sierra Leone) in Western Africa, and 4.3% (95% CI: 3.2-5.3%; Algeria) in Northern Africa. The high prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy in some African countries calls for educational campaigns, screening and targeted interventions for women of childbearing age. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Predicting Equity Markets with Digital Online Media Sentiment: Evidence from Markov-switching Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooijen, S.J.; Broda, S.A.

    2016-01-01

    The authors examine the predictive capabilities of online investor sentiment for the returns and volatility of MSCI U.S. Equity Sector Indices by including exogenous variables in the mean and volatility specifications of a Markov-switching model. As predicted by the semistrong efficient market

  12. Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

    2016-02-01

    Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  13. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  14. Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  16. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  17. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  18. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Bordino

    Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  19. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  20. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  1. Using the AUDIT-PC to predict alcohol withdrawal in hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecoraro, Anna; Ewen, Edward; Horton, Terry; Mooney, Ruth; Kolm, Paul; McGraw, Patty; Woody, George

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) occurs when alcohol-dependent individuals abruptly reduce or stop drinking. Hospitalized alcohol-dependent patients are at risk. Hospitals need a validated screening tool to assess withdrawal risk, but no validated tools are currently available. To examine the admission Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-(Piccinelli) Consumption (AUDIT-PC) ability to predict the subsequent development of AWS among hospitalized medical-surgical patients admitted to a non-intensive care setting. Retrospective case–control study of patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of AWS. All patients with AWS were classified as presenting with AWS or developing AWS later during admission. Patients admitted to an intensive care setting and those missing AUDIT-PC scores were excluded from analysis. A hierarchical (by hospital unit) logistic regression was performed and receiver-operating characteristics were examined on those developing AWS after admission and randomly selected controls. Because those diagnosing AWS were not blinded to the AUDIT-PC scores, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The study cohort included all patients age ≥18 years admitted to any medical or surgical units in a single health care system from 6 October 2009 to 7 October 2010. After exclusions, 414 patients were identified with AWS. The 223 (53.9 %) who developed AWS after admission were compared to 466 randomly selected controls without AWS. An AUDIT-PC score ≥4 at admission provides 91.0 % sensitivity and 89.7 % specificity (AUC=0.95; 95 % CI, 0.94–0.97) for AWS, and maximizes the correct classification while resulting in 17 false positives for every true positive identified. Performance remained excellent on sensitivity analysis (AUC=0.92; 95 % CI, 0.90–0.93). Increasing AUDIT-PC scores were associated with an increased risk of AWS (OR=1.68, 95 % CI 1.55–1.82, pAUDIT-PC score is an excellent discriminator of AWS and could be an important component

  2. It is pleasant and heavy: convergence of visual contents in tobacco, alcohol and food marketing in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viacava, Keitiline R; Weydmann, Gibson J; de Vasconcelos, Mailton F; Jaboinski, Juliana; Batista, Graziele D; de Almeida, Rosa Maria M; Bizarro, Lisiane

    2016-09-01

    The tactical use of visuoperceptual content in marketing may encourage impulsive consumption of unhealthy products. In this study, the application of visuoperceptual content was compared in advertisements used by industries of tobacco, alcohol and food. The aim was to ascertain whether similarities exist in the strategies used as variables for the selection of commercial stimuli, such as color, position and size. Scion Image and Corel Draw Graphics Suite software were used to analyze the content of a non-probabilistic sample of advertising images (N = 150). Differences were identified in the use of the colors green (p = 0.04) and red (p = 0.01), but not in the use of the color blue (p = 0.64), suggesting that induction of feelings of pleasantness resulting from the use of the color blue may be associated with the advertising in the alcohol and tobacco industries. Regarding the position of the commercial stimuli, a predominance of the use of quadrants 'C' (p = 0.00) and 'D' (p = 0.01) was found in all three industries, indicating a similar use of areas perceived as being 'heavier'. As to the size, 78% of advertisements placed the commercial stimuli within a range of 0-25% of the total image. The results showed some similarities in the use of visuoperceptual content in advertisements for tobacco, alcohol and food, especially between tobacco and alcohol. The article offers a convergence analysis of these three industries altogether, providing additional subsidies for the formulation of protection policies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Social marketing and community mobilisation to reduce underage alcohol consumption in Australia: A cluster randomised community trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Bosco Charles; Williams, Joanne; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Osborn, Amber; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Leslie, Eva; Patton, George; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Toumbourou, John W

    2018-08-01

    In many countries adolescent alcohol use is a major health problem. To supplement national policies, it is important to trial community interventions as a potential strategy to prevent adolescent alcohol use. This study evaluated a multicomponent community intervention that included community mobilisation, social marketing, and the monitoring of alcohol sales to minors. Evaluation was a clustered randomised trial design with 14 intervention and 14 control communities. Prior to randomisation, communities were matched on socioeconomic status and location. Intervention communities were not blinded. 3545 Year 8 students (M = 12 years) were surveyed at baseline from 75 schools; 3377 students were surveyed post intervention in 2013 from 54 schools. It was hypothesised that the primary outcome, individual alcohol consumption in last 30 days, after the intervention would be 15% lower in intervention communities. Secondary outcomes were consumption in the past year and intention not to drink before age 18. The intervention communities showed larger relative reductions compared to the controls in last 30-day consumption and past year (10%), but not significantly different. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the intervention community (63%), compared to the controls (71%), reported intending to drink before 18 years old. Subgroup analysis identified regional and state differences for some secondary measures. Intervention assignment was associated with lower adolescent intention to drink before the age of 18. However, more intensive and longer-term intervention may be required to measure significant differences in behaviour change. ACTRN12612000384853. Rowland B, Toumbourou JW, Osborn A, et al. BMJ Open 2013;3:e002423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002423. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Methodology for predicting market transformation due to implementation of energy efficiency standards and labels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlia, T.M.I.

    2004-01-01

    There are many papers that have been published on energy efficiency standards and labels. However, a very limited number of articles on the subject have discussed the transformation of appliance energy efficiency in the market after the programs are implemented. This paper is an attempt to investigate the market transformation due to implementation of minimum energy efficiency standards and energy labels. Even though the paper only investigates room air conditioners as a case study, the method is also applicable for predicting market transformation for other household electrical appliances

  5. Can Big Data Help Predict Financial Market Dynamics?: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Jin Pyo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

  6. Personality and Defense Styles: Clinical Specificities and Predictive Factors of Alcohol Use Disorder in Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribadier, Aurélien; Dorard, Géraldine; Varescon, Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated personality traits and defense styles in order to determine clinical specificities and predictive factors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in women. A female sample, composed of AUD outpatients (n = 48) and a control group (n = 50), completed a sociodemographic self-report and questionnaires assessing personality traits (BFI), defense mechanisms and defense styles (DSQ-40). Comparative and correlational analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regressions, were performed. AUD women presented with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion and conscientiousness. They used less mature and more neurotic and immature defense styles than the control group. Concerning personality traits, high neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were predictive of AUD, as well as low mature, high neurotic, and immature defense styles. Including personality traits and defense styles in a logistic model, high neuroticism was the only AUD predictive factor. AUD women presented clinical specificities and predictive factors in personality traits and defense styles that must be taken into account in AUD studies. Implications for specific treatment for women are discussed.

  7. Interactions between implicit and explicit cognition and working memory capacity in the prediction of alcohol use in at-risk adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thush, C.; Wiers, R.W.H.J.; Ames, S.L.; Grenard, J.L.; Sussman, S.Y.; Stacy, A.W.

    2008-01-01

    Dual process models of addiction suggest that the influence of alcohol-related cognition might be dependent on the level of executive functioning. This study investigated if the interaction between implicit and explicit alcohol-related cognitions and working memory capacity predicted alcohol use

  8. Psychopathy and the prediction of alcohol-related physical aggression: the roles of impulsive antisociality and fearless dominance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkley, Erica L; Giancola, Peter R; Lance, Charles E

    2013-02-01

    It is well established that individual difference factors modulate aggression under the acute effects of alcohol. In this investigation, we tested the hypothesis that one core dimension of psychopathy, Impulsive Antisociality, would modulate intoxicated aggression, whereas another dimension, Fearless Dominance, would not. Participants were 516 young social drinkers (253 men and 263 women). Psychopathy was measured using the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; Lilienfeld and Andrews, 1996). Following the consumption of either an alcohol or a placebo beverage, aggression was measured with a task in which participants administered and received electric shocks to/from a fictitious opponent under the guise of a competitive reaction-time task. Hierarchical regression analyses supported our hypothesis: Impulsive Antisociality predicted aggression under alcohol, whereas Fearless Dominance did not. Persons who tend to endorse antisocial and impulsive externalizing behaviors appear to be at greater risk for aggression under the acute influence of alcohol. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. DFT-based prediction of reactivity of short-chain alcohol dehydrogenase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stawoska, I.; Dudzik, A.; Wasylewski, M.; Jemioła-Rzemińska, M.; Skoczowski, A.; Strzałka, K.; Szaleniec, M.

    2017-06-01

    The reaction mechanism of ketone reduction by short chain dehydrogenase/reductase, ( S)-1-phenylethanol dehydrogenase from Aromatoleum aromaticum, was studied with DFT methods using cluster model approach. The characteristics of the hydride transfer process were investigated based on reaction of acetophenone and its eight structural analogues. The results confirmed previously suggested concomitant transfer of hydride from NADH to carbonyl C atom of the substrate with proton transfer from Tyr to carbonyl O atom. However, additional coupled motion of the next proton in the proton-relay system, between O2' ribose hydroxyl and Tyr154 was observed. The protonation of Lys158 seems not to affect the pKa of Tyr154, as the stable tyrosyl anion was observed only for a neutral Lys158 in the high pH model. The calculated reaction energies and reaction barriers were calibrated by calorimetric and kinetic methods. This allowed an excellent prediction of the reaction enthalpies (R2 = 0.93) and a good prediction of the reaction kinetics (R2 = 0.89). The observed relations were validated in prediction of log K eq obtained for real whole-cell reactor systems that modelled industrial synthesis of S-alcohols.

  10. Personality and the prediction of high-risk trajectories of alcohol use during adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Monshouwer, K.; van de Schoot, R.; Janssen, T.; Vollebergh, W.A.; Wiers, R.W.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Early onset of alcohol use and persistent use of alcohol during adolescence have been associated with later problem behavior, such as heavy drinking and the use of other substances. Several personality characteristics have been related to the onset and persistent use of alcohol during

  11. Prediction of non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease and liver fat content by serum molecular lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orešic, Matej; Hyötyläinen, Tuulia; Kotronen, Anna

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether analysis of lipids by ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled to MS allows the development of a laboratory test for non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease (NAFLD), and how a lipid-profile biomarker compares with the prediction of NAFLD and liver-fat content based...

  12. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  13. Predicting drunk driving: contribution of alcohol use and related problems, traffic behaviour, personality and platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eensoo, Diva; Paaver, Marika; Harro, Maarike; Harro, Jaanus

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the predictive value of socio-economic data, alcohol consumption measures, smoking, platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity, traffic behaviour habits and impulsivity measures for actual drunk driving. Data were collected from 203 male drunk driving offenders and 211 control subjects using self-reported questionnaires, and blood samples were obtained from the two groups. We identified the combination of variables, which predicted correctly, approximately 80% of the subjects' belonging to the drunk driving and control groups. Significant independent discriminators in the final model were, among the health-behaviour measures, alcohol-related problems, frequency of using alcohol, the amount of alcohol consumed and smoking. Predictive traffic behaviour measures were seat belt use and paying for parking. Among the impulsivity measures, dysfunctional impulsivity was the best predictor; platelet MAO activity and age also had an independent predictive value. Our results support the notion that drunk driving is the result of a combination of various behavioural, biological and personality-related risk factors.

  14. How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P

    2016-06-01

    This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = -.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = -.05 and -.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude-intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude-intention and SE-intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.

  15. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  16. Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed; Thanh Huong Dinh; Duc Khuong Nguyen

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a time-varying parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects to examine the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period February 7, 1997-January 8, 2010. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term predictability in oil-price changes over time, except for several short sub-periods. However, the hypothesis of convergence towards weak-form informational efficiency is rejected for all markets. In addition, we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the time-paths of the estimated predictability indices and detect only one breakpoint, for the oil markets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical results therefore call for new empirical research to further gauge the predictability characteristics and the determinants of oil-price changes.

  17. Predictive Utility of Brief Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) for human immunodeficiency virus antiretroviral medication nonadherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broyles, Lauren Matukaitis; Gordon, Adam J; Sereika, Susan M; Ryan, Christopher M; Erlen, Judith A

    2011-10-01

    Alcohol use negatively affects adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), thus human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) care providers need accurate, efficient assessments of alcohol use. Using existing data from an efficacy trial of 2 cognitive-behavioral ART adherence interventions, the authors sought to determine if results on 2 common alcohol screening tests (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test--Consumption [AUDIT-C] and its binge-related question [AUDIT-3]) predict ART nonadherence. Twenty-seven percent of the sample (n = 308) were positive on the AUDIT-C and 34% were positive on the AUDIT-3. In multivariate analyses, AUDIT-C-positive status predicted ART nonadherence after controlling for race, age, conscientiousness, and self-efficacy (P = .036). Although AUDIT-3-positive status was associated with ART nonadherence in unadjusted analyses, this relationship was not maintained in the final multivariate model. The AUDIT-C shows potential as an indirect screening tool for both at-risk drinking and ART nonadherence, underscoring the relationship between alcohol and chronic disease management.

  18. Investigation of aggravating psychosocial factors on health and predictability of smoking and alcohol use in post adolescent students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Effrosyni Barmpagianni

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual.

  19. Strategic Self-Presentation or Authentic Communication? Predicting Adolescents' Alcohol References on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geusens, Femke; Beullens, Kathleen

    2017-01-01

    The current study is one of the first to examine how self-reported alcohol consumption, friends' perceived alcohol consumption, and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with adolescents' sharing of alcohol references on SNS. A cross-sectional paper-and-pencil survey was administered among 3,172 adolescents (n = 3,133 used for analyses, mean age = 17.16 years, SD = 0.93; 50.7% male). Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. First, the results indicated that both self-reported drinking behavior and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references were related to sharing alcohol references on SNS, but the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor than self-reported drinking behavior. Friends' perceived drinking behavior was not a significant predictor. In the second place, self-reported drinking behavior was a stronger predictor for girls than for boys, whereas the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor for boys than for girls. Adolescents' alcohol-related self-representation is in line with their alcohol consumption and is also strongly related to what their friends are sharing. Thus, adolescents appear to communicate authentically about their drinking experiences, but the decision to do so is heavily influenced by the prevailing social norm regarding alcohol-related communication.

  20. Predicting alcohol consumption and binge drinking in company employees: an application of planned behaviour and self-determination theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, Martin S; Lonsdale, Adam J; Hein, Vello; Koka, Andre; Lintunen, Taru; Pasi, Heidi; Lindwall, Magnus; Rudolfsson, Lisa; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

    2012-05-01

    This study tested an integrated model of the psychosocial determinants of alcohol-related behaviour among company employees from four nations. A motivational sequence was proposed in which motivational orientations from self-determination theory influenced intentions to consume alcohol within guideline limits and alcohol-related behaviour via the mediation of the theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). A three-wave prospective design using self-reported psychological and behavioural measures. Company employees (N= 486, males = 225, females = 261; M age = 30.41, SD= 8.31) from four nations (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and UK) completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivation from self-determination theory, attitudes, subjective norms, PBC, intentions from the theory of planned behaviour, and self-reported measures of past alcohol consumption and binge-drinking occasions at the first time point (time 1). Follow-up psychological and behavioural measures were taken one month later (time 2) and follow-up behavioural measures taken a further 2 months later (time 3). Path analyses supported the motivational sequence with identified regulation (time 1), predicting intentions (time 1), and alcohol units consumed (time 2). The effects were indirect via the mediation of attitudes and PBC (time 1). A similar pattern of effects was found for the effect of time 2 psychological variables on time 3 units of alcohol consumed. There was little support for the effects of the psychological variables on binge-drinking behaviour. Findings provide new information on the psychosocial determinants of alcohol behaviour in company employees and the processes involved. Results may provide impetus for the development of interventions to reduce alcohol consumption. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  1. Mixed price and load forecasting of electricity markets by a new iterative prediction method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Daraeepour, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Load and price forecasting are the two key issues for the participants of current electricity markets. However, load and price of electricity markets have complex characteristics such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and multiple seasonality, to name a few (usually, more volatility is seen in the behavior of electricity price signal). For these reasons, much research has been devoted to load and price forecast, especially in the recent years. However, previous research works in the area separately predict load and price signals. In this paper, a mixed model for load and price forecasting is presented, which can consider interactions of these two forecast processes. The mixed model is based on an iterative neural network based prediction technique. It is shown that the proposed model can present lower forecast errors for both load and price compared with the previous separate frameworks. Another advantage of the mixed model is that all required forecast features (from load or price) are predicted within the model without assuming known values for these features. So, the proposed model can better be adapted to real conditions of an electricity market. The forecast accuracy of the proposed mixed method is evaluated by means of real data from the New York and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent load and price forecast techniques. (author)

  2. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  3. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  4. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  5. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

  6. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Peter J; Leung, Joanne; Deane, Frank P; Lyons, Geoffrey C B

    2016-11-01

    Despite clinical recommendations that further treatment is critical for successful recovery following drug and alcohol detoxification, a large proportion of clients fail to attend treatment after detoxification. In this study, individual factors and constructs based on motivational and volitional models of health behaviour were examined as predictors of post-detoxification treatment attendance. The sample consisted of 220 substance-dependent individuals participating in short-term detoxification programs provided by The Australian Salvation Army. The Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions were used to predict attendance at subsequent treatment. Follow-up data were collected for 177 participants (81%), with 104 (80%) of those participants reporting that they had either attended further formal treatment (e.g. residential rehabilitation programs, outpatient counselling) or mutual support groups in the 2 weeks after leaving the detoxification program. Logistic regression examined the predictors of further treatment attendance. The full model accounted for 21% of the variance in treatment attendance, with attitude and Implementation Intentions contributing significantly to the prediction. Findings from the present study would suggest that assisting clients to develop a specific treatment plan, as well as helping clients to build positive perceptions about subsequent treatment, will promote greater attendance at further treatment following detoxification. [Kelly PJ, Leung J, Deane FP, Lyons GCB. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:678-685]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  7. Alcohol use longitudinally predicts adjustment and impairment in college students with ADHD: The role of executive functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langberg, Joshua M; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Kipperman, Kristen L; Molitor, Stephen J; Eddy, Laura D

    2015-06-01

    The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether alcohol consumption longitudinally predicts the adjustment, overall functioning, and grade point average (GPA) of college students with ADHD and to determine whether self-report of executive functioning (EF) mediates these relationships. Sixty-two college students comprehensively diagnosed with ADHD completed ratings at the beginning and end of the school year. Regression analyses revealed that alcohol consumption rated at the beginning of the year significantly predicted self-report of adjustment and overall impairment at the end of the year, above and beyond ADHD symptoms and baseline levels of adjustment/impairment but did not predict GPA. Exploratory multiple mediator analyses suggest that alcohol use impacts impairment primarily through EF deficits in self-motivation. EF deficits in the motivation to refrain from pursuing immediately rewarding behaviors in order to work toward long-term goals appear to be particularly important in understanding why college students with ADHD who consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing significant negative outcomes. The implications of these findings for the prevention of the negative functional outcomes often experienced by college students with ADHD are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  9. South Korean alcohol free associations: negative expectancy not predicting drinks per occasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Benjamin J; Graham, Deborah; Cottrell, David; Kim, Kyung-Yong

    2012-06-01

    Cultural and biological particulars existing in East Asian countries are likely to mediate differences in the alcohol consumption experience. Despite this no research to date has directly explored the alcohol free association or expectancy of any East Asian nations. The current research aims to provide a set of South Korean alcohol expectancies. Two hundred and thirty-seven South Koreans participated in an alcohol free association test and completed a demographic survey. The results both confirmed and contradicted areas of past alcohol expectancy research. There appears to be differences in associates with high probability of recall and alcohol expectancy, where negative, negative sedating and sedating expectancy categories were not found to be predictors of South Korean drinker level. The results suggest that South Koreans have a more even level of negative expectancy across all drinker categories, possibly due to a combination of linguistic, cultural and biological difference found among this population. The results provide a list of South Korean alcohol free association norms for future alcohol research in the region, with the results also underlining the need for alcohol free association tests among East Asian nations. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  10. Temporal Alcohol Availability Predicts First-Time Drunk Driving, but Not Repeat Offending

    OpenAIRE

    Schofield, Timothy P.; Denson, Thomas F.

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges...

  11. Correlation and prediction of environmental properties of alcohol ethoxylate surfactants using the UNIFAC method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Hongyuan; Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2005-01-01

    ), the bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the toxicity. Kow values of alcohol ethoxylates are difficult to measure. Existing methods such as those in commercial software like ACD,ClogP and KowWin have not been applied to surfactants, and they fail for heavy alcohol ethoxylates (alkyl carbon numbers above 12). Thus...... and toxicity of alcohol ethoxylates are correlated with their Kow. The proposed approach can be extended to other families of nonionic surfactants....

  12. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice Trovero

    Full Text Available Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs.

  13. The predictive validity of the Drinking-Related Cognitions Scale in alcohol-dependent patients under abstinence-oriented treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sawayama Toru

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cognitive factors associated with drinking behavior such as positive alcohol expectancies, self-efficacy, perception of impaired control over drinking and perception of drinking problems are considered to have a significant influence on treatment effects and outcome in alcohol-dependent patients. However, the development of a rating scale on lack of perception or denial of drinking problems and impaired control over drinking has not been substantial, even though these are important factors in patients under abstinence-oriented treatment as well as participants in self-help groups such as Alcoholics Anonymous (AA. The Drinking-Related Cognitions Scale (DRCS is a new self-reported rating scale developed to briefly measure cognitive factors associated with drinking behavior in alcohol-dependent patients under abstinence-oriented treatment, including positive alcohol expectancies, abstinence self-efficacy, perception of impaired control over drinking, and perception of drinking problems. Here, we conducted a prospective cohort study to explore the predictive validity of DRCS. Methods Participants in this study were 175 middle-aged and elderly Japanese male patients who met the DSM-IV Diagnostic Criteria for Alcohol Dependence. DRCS scores were recorded before and after the inpatient abstinence-oriented treatment program, and treatment outcome was evaluated one year after discharge. Results Of the 175 participants, 30 were not available for follow-up; thus the number of subjects for analysis in this study was 145. When the total DRCS score and subscale scores were compared before and after inpatient treatment, a significant increase was seen for both scores. Both the total DRCS score and each subscale score were significantly related to total abstinence, percentage of abstinent days, and the first drinking occasion during the one-year post-treatment period. Therefore, good treatment outcome was significantly predicted by low

  14. The role of personality in predicting drug and alcohol use among sexual minorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Nicholas A; Oost, Kathryn M; Heck, Nicholas C; Cochran, Bryan N

    2015-06-01

    Research consistently demonstrates that sexual minority status is associated with increased risk of problematic substance use. Existing literature in this area has focused on group-specific minority stress factors (e.g., victimization and internalized heterosexism). However, no known research has tested the incremental validity of personality traits as predictors of substance use beyond identified group-specific risk factors. A sample of 704 sexual minority adults was recruited nationally from lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning community organizations and social networking Web sites and asked to complete an online survey containing measures of personality, sexual minority stress, and substance use. Hierarchical regression models were constructed to test the incremental predictive validity of five-factor model personality traits over and above known sexual minority risk factors. Consistent with hypotheses, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with drug and alcohol use after accounting for minority stress factors, and all factors except agreeableness were associated with substance use at the bivariate level of analysis. Future research should seek to better understand the role of normal personality structures and processes conferring risk for substance use among sexual minorities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Is Stock Market Crash Predictable? The Case Study of Stock Markets in Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Ho Keng

    2008-01-01

    What is the stock market? A stock market is a market place that enables trading of company stocks, other forms of securities (such as bonds, debentures, and equity securities) and derivatives (for example, futures, forwards, options, and swaps). Stock market is an important source for companies or fund raisers to raise money and for investors or traders to make or loose money. It is also a market place for speculators to make arbitraged investment for financial gain. Due to its complexity and...

  16. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  17. The string prediction models as an invariants of time series in forex market

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Pincak; Marian Repasan

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. Brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is ...

  18. Predicting the Currency Market in Online Gaming via Lexicon-Based Analysis on Its Online Forum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Bin Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transactions involving virtual currencies are becoming increasingly common, including those in online games. In response, predicting the market price of a virtual currency is an important task for all involved, but it has not yet attracted much attention from researchers. This paper presents user opinions from online forums in a massive multiplayer online game (MMOG setting widely used around the world. We propose a method for predicting the next-day rise and fall of the currency used in an MMOG environment. Based on analysis of online forum users’ opinions, we predict daily fluctuations in the price of a currency used in an MMOG setting. Focusing specifically on the World of Warcraft game, one of the most widely used MMOGs, we demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the fluctuation in value of virtual currencies used in this game community.

  19. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafen Zhu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  20. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chafen; Zhu; Li; Wang; Tengfei; Yang

    2014-01-01

    This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  1. Anti-bacterial efficacy of alcoholic hand rubs in the Kenyan market, 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Missiani Ochwoto

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hand hygiene is known to be effective in preventing hospital and community-acquired infections. The increasing number of hand sanitizer brands in Kenyan hospitals and consumer outlets is of concern. Thus the main aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-bacterial efficacy and organoleptic properties of these hand sanitizers in Kenya. Methods This was an experimental, laboratory-based study of 14 different brands of hand sanitizers (coded HS1-14 available in various retail outlets and hospitals in Kenya. Efficacy was evaluated using standard non-pathogenic Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922, Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923 and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853 as per the European Standard (EN. The logarithmic reduction factors (RF were assessed at baseline and after treatment, and log reduction then calculated. Ten and 25 healthy volunteers participated in the efficacy and organoleptic studies respectively. Results Four (28.6% hand sanitizers (HS12, HS9, HS13 and HS14 showed a 5.9 reduction factor on all the three bacteria strains. Seven (50% hand sanitizers had efficacies of <3 against all the three bacteria strains used. Efficacy on E. Coli was higher compared to the other pathogens. Three hand sanitizers were efficacious on one of the pathogens and not the other. In terms of organoleptic properties, gel-based formulations were rated far higher than the liquid based formulations brands. Conclusion Fifty percent (50% of the selected hand sanitizers in the Kenyan market have efficacy that falls below the World Health Organization (WHO and DIN EN 1500:2013. Of the 14 hand sanitizers found in the Kenyan market, only four showed efficacies that were comparable to the WHO-formulation. There is a need to evaluate how many of these products with <3 efficacy that have been incorporated into the health system for hand hygiene and the country’s policy on regulations on their usage.

  2. Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).

  3. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Timothy P; Denson, Thomas F

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  4. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy P Schofield

    Full Text Available Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  5. Impulsivity interacts with momentary PTSD symptom worsening to predict alcohol use in male veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Anne C; Cooney, Ned L; Sartor, Carolyn E; Arias, Albert J; Rosen, Marc I

    2018-04-11

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is prevalent among veterans who served post-9/11, and co-occurs with problem alcohol and substance use. Studies using ecological momentary assessment have examined the temporal association between time-varying PTSD symptoms and alcohol use. Results suggest individual differences in these associations. We tested hypotheses that alcohol use measured by momentary assessment would be explained by acute increases in PTSD symptoms, and the PTSD-alcohol association would be moderated by trait impulsivity. A sample of 28 male post-9/11-era veterans who reported past-month PTSD symptoms and risky alcohol use were enrolled. On a quasi-random schedule, participants completed three electronic assessments daily for 28 days measuring past 2-h PTSD symptoms, alcohol, and substance use. At baseline, trait impulsivity was measured by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale. Past-month PTSD symptoms and alcohol use were measured. Using three-level hierarchical models, number of drinks recorded by momentary assessment was modeled as a function of change in PTSD symptoms since last assessment, controlling for lag-1 alcohol and substance use and other covariates. A cross-level interaction tested moderation of the within-time PTSD-alcohol association by impulsivity. A total of 1,522 assessments were completed. A positive within-time association between PTSD symptom change and number of drinks was demonstrated. The association was significantly moderated by impulsivity. Results provide preliminary support for a unique temporal relationship between acute PTSD symptom change and alcohol use among veterans with trait impulsiveness. If replicated in a clinical sample, results may have implications for a targeted momentary intervention.

  6. Cingulate cortex functional connectivity predicts future relapse in alcohol dependent individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmin Zakiniaeiz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing illness. Alcohol and stress cues have consistently been shown to increase craving and relapse risk in recovering alcohol dependent (AUD patients. However, differences in functional connectivity in response to these cues have not been studied using data-driven approaches. Here, voxel-wise connectivity is used in a whole-brain investigation of functional connectivity differences associated with alcohol and stress cues and to examine whether these differences are related to subsequent relapse. In Study 1, 45, 4- to 8-week abstinent, recovering AUD patients underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during individualized imagery of alcohol, stress, and neutral cues. Relapse measures were collected prospectively for 90 days post-discharge from inpatient treatment. AUD patients showed blunted anterior (ACC, mid (MCC and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC, voxel-wise connectivity responses to stress compared to neutral cues and blunted PCC response to alcohol compared to neutral cues. Using Cox proportional hazard regression, weaker connectivity in ACC and MCC during neutral exposure was associated with longer time to relapse (better recovery outcome. Similarly, greater connectivity in PCC during alcohol-cue compared to stress cue was associated with longer time to relapse. In Study 2, a sub-group of 30 AUD patients were demographically-matched to 30 healthy control (HC participants for group comparisons. AUD compared to HC participants showed reduced cingulate connectivity during alcohol and stress cues. Using novel data-driven approaches, the cingulate cortex emerged as a key region in the disruption of functional connectivity during alcohol and stress-cue processing in AUD patients and as a marker of subsequent alcohol relapse.

  7. Quality of alcohol-based hand disinfectants and their regulatory status. Development and marketing authorisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stengele, Michael

    2008-10-01

    A 2005 survey showed that there are at least four legal product classifications for hand disinfectants in the European Union: medicinal products, biocidal products, cosmetics and medical devices. An internationally harmonized classification does not exist. The regulatory status of those products is defined at national level. In order to assure compliance with the regulations these four classifications provide different levels of official surveillance varying from product-specific marketing authorisations and production site audits to the obligation to just work in accordance with certain general guidelines. Biocidal product regulations cover eco-toxicological and toxicological aspects, but do not very much address to the customers' quality and efficacy expectations. In contrast, the medicinal product legislation is the most ambitious one claiming quality, safety, efficacy, and an independent benefit risk-assessment by an authority. In respect of ambition, the two remaining product categories--cosmetics and medical devices--rank between the both classifications mentioned above. For medical devices, it is the responsibility of the manufacturer to make sure the products meet defined essential requirements regarding quality, safety and performance and to have an appropriate quality assurance system implemented under third party control. For cosmetics there are some legal restrictions, but within these it is the sole responsibility of the manufacturer to ensure that the products are safe and fulfil their claims. This paper describes one way out of this increasingly complex situation, the definition of a single quality standard meeting the users' expectations as well as all legal requirements regardless of the specific sales country. This international quality standard for products would take priority over any individual national standard, to the benefit of users.

  8. Non-linear multivariable predictive control of an alcoholic fermentation process using functional link networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto da Cruz Meleiro

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work a MIMO non-linear predictive controller was developed for an extractive alcoholic fermentation process. The internal model of the controller was represented by two MISO Functional Link Networks (FLNs, identified using simulated data generated from a deterministic mathematical model whose kinetic parameters were determined experimentally. The FLN structure presents as advantages fast training and guaranteed convergence, since the estimation of the weights is a linear optimization problem. Besides, the elimination of non-significant weights generates parsimonious models, which allows for fast execution in an MPC-based algorithm. The proposed algorithm showed good potential in identification and control of non-linear processes.Neste trabalho um controlador preditivo não linear multivariável foi desenvolvido para um processo de fermentação alcoólica extrativa. O modelo interno do controlador foi representado por duas redes do tipo Functional Link (FLN, identificadas usando dados de simulação gerados a partir de um modelo validado experimentalmente. A estrutura FLN apresenta como vantagem o treinamento rápido e convergência garantida, já que a estimação dos seus pesos é um problema de otimização linear. Além disso, a eliminação de pesos não significativos gera modelos parsimoniosos, o que permite a rápida execução em algoritmos de controle preditivo baseado em modelo. Os resultados mostram que o algoritmo proposto tem grande potencial para identificação e controle de processos não lineares.

  9. Serum parameters predict the severity of ultrasonographicifndingsinnon-alcoholic fatty liver disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mohsen Razavizade; Raika Jamali; Abbas Arj; Hamidreza Talari

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Controversy exists about the correlation between liver ultrasonography and serum parameters for evaluating the severity of liver involvement in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study was designed to determine the association between liver ultrasonography staging in NAFLD and serum parameters correlated with disease severity in previous studies; and set optimal cut-off points for those serum parameters correlated with NAFLD staging at ultrasonography, in order to differentiate ultrasonographic groups (USGs). METHODS: This cross-sectional study evaluated outpatients with evidence of NAFLD in ultrasonography referred to a general hospital. Those with positive viral markers, abnormal serum ceruloplasmin or gamma-globulin concentrations were excluded. A radiologist performed the ultrasonography staging and stratiifed the patients into mild, moderate, and severe groups. Fasting serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, triglyceride (TG), high and low density lipoprotein (HDL, LDL), and cholesterol were checked. RESULTS:Two hundred and forty-ifve patients with a mean age (±standard deviation) of 41.63(±11.46) years were included. There were no signiifcant differences when mean laboratory concentrations were compared between moderate and severe USGs. Therefore, these groups were combined to create revised USGs ("mild"versus"moderate or severe"). There were associations between the revised USGs, and ALT, TG, HDL levels, and diabetes mellitus [odds ratios=2.81 (95%conifdence interval (CI):1.37-5.76), 2.48 (95%CI:1.29-4.78), 0.36 (95%CI:0.18-0.74), and 5.65 (95%CI:2.86-11.16) respectively;all P values CONCLUSIONS: Serum ALT, TG, and HDL concentrations seem to be associated with the staging by liver ultrasonography in NAFLD. They might be used to predict the staging of liver ultrasonography in these patients.

  10. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Stock Market Prediction on High-Frequency Data Using Generative Adversarial Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingyu Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important issue in the financial world, as it contributes to the development of effective strategies for stock exchange transactions. In this paper, we propose a generic framework employing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM and convolutional neural network (CNN for adversarial training to forecast high-frequency stock market. This model takes the publicly available index provided by trading software as input to avoid complex financial theory research and difficult technical analysis, which provides the convenience for the ordinary trader of nonfinancial specialty. Our study simulates the trading mode of the actual trader and uses the method of rolling partition training set and testing set to analyze the effect of the model update cycle on the prediction performance. Extensive experiments show that our proposed approach can effectively improve stock price direction prediction accuracy and reduce forecast error.

  12. Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Daniela NEMES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

  13. An Exploration of the Associations of Alcohol-Related Social Media Use and Message Interpretation Outcomes to Problem Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Austin, Bruce W

    2017-07-01

    College students' use of digital communication technology has led to a rapid expansion of digital alcohol marketing efforts. Two surveys (total usable n = 637) were conducted to explore college students' experiences with alcohol-related social media, their decision making related to alcohol use, and their problematic drinking behaviors. Study results indicated that students' use of alcohol-related social media predicted their problem drinking behaviors. In addition, students' wishful identification, perceived desirability, perceived similarity, and normative beliefs predicted their expectancies for drinking alcohol. Finally, students' expectancies for drinking alcohol predicted their problematic drinking behaviors.

  14. Predicting the effect of naltrexone and acamprosate in alcohol-dependent patients using genetic indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooteman, Wendy; Naassila, Mickaël; Koeter, Maarten W. J.; Verheul, Roel; Schippers, Gerard M.; Houchi, Hakim; Daoust, Martine; van den Brink, Wim

    2009-01-01

    Acamprosate and naltrexone are effective medications in the treatment of alcoholism. However. effect sizes are modest. Pharmacogenomics may improve patient-treatment-matching and effect sizes. It is hypothesized that naltrexone exerts its effect through genetic characteristics associated with the

  15. Alcohol-related hot-spot analysis and prediction : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This project developed methods to more accurately identify alcohol-related crash hot spots, ultimately allowing for more effective and efficient enforcement and safety campaigns. Advancements in accuracy came from improving the calculation of spatial...

  16. Predicting dyscontrolled drinking with implicit and explicit measures of alcohol motivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ostafin, Brian D.; Kassman, Kyle T.; de Jong, Peter J.; van Hemel-Ruiter, Madelon E.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background A defining feature of alcohol addiction is dyscontrol – drinking despite intentions to restrain use. Given that dyscontrolled drinking involves an automatic (nonvolitional) element and that implicit measures are designed to assess automatic processes, it follows that implicit

  17. Ethanol Exposure History and Alcoholic Reward Differentially Alter Dopamine Release in the Nucleus Accumbens to a Reward-Predictive Cue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorenza, Amanda M; Shnitko, Tatiana A; Sullivan, Kaitlin M; Vemuru, Sudheer R; Gomez-A, Alexander; Esaki, Julie Y; Boettiger, Charlotte A; Da Cunha, Claudio; Robinson, Donita L

    2018-06-01

    Conditioned stimuli (CS) that predict reward delivery acquire the ability to induce phasic dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens (NAc). This dopamine release may facilitate conditioned approach behavior, which often manifests as approach to the site of reward delivery (called "goal-tracking") or to the CS itself (called "sign-tracking"). Previous research has linked sign-tracking in particular to impulsivity and drug self-administration, and addictive drugs may promote the expression of sign-tracking. Ethanol (EtOH) acutely promotes phasic release of dopamine in the accumbens, but it is unknown whether an alcoholic reward alters dopamine release to a CS. We hypothesized that Pavlovian conditioning with an alcoholic reward would increase dopamine release triggered by the CS and subsequent sign-tracking behavior. Moreover, we predicted that chronic intermittent EtOH (CIE) exposure would promote sign-tracking while acute administration of naltrexone (NTX) would reduce it. Rats received 14 doses of EtOH (3 to 5 g/kg, intragastric) or water followed by 6 days of Pavlovian conditioning training. Rewards were a chocolate solution with or without 10% (w/v) alcohol. We used fast-scan cyclic voltammetry to measure phasic dopamine release in the NAc core in response to the CS and the rewards. We also determined the effect of NTX (1 mg/kg, subcutaneous) on conditioned approach. Both CIE and alcoholic reward, individually but not together, associated with greater dopamine to the CS than control conditions. However, this increase in dopamine release was not linked to greater sign-tracking, as both CIE and alcoholic reward shifted conditioned approach from sign-tracking behavior to goal-tracking behavior. However, they both also increased sensitivity to NTX, which reduced goal-tracking behavior. While a history of EtOH exposure or alcoholic reward enhanced dopamine release to a CS, they did not promote sign-tracking under the current conditions. These findings are

  18. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit G

    2014-06-01

    response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested.Keywords: alcoholism, relapse, response inhibition, go/no-go task, ERPs, P3d 

  19. Predictive Effects of Good Self-Control and Poor Regulation on Alcohol-Related Outcomes: Do Protective Behavioral Strategies Mediate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Matthew R.; Kite, Benjamin A.; Henson, James M.

    2016-01-01

    In the present study, we examined whether use of protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between self-control constructs and alcohol-related outcomes. According to the two-mode model of self-control, good self-control (planfulness; measured with Future Time Perspective, Problem Solving, and Self-Reinforcement) and poor regulation (impulsivity; measured with Present Time Perspective, Poor Delay of Gratification, Distractibility) are theorized to be relatively independent constructs rather than opposite ends of a single continuum. The analytic sample consisted of 278 college student drinkers (68% women) who responded to a battery of surveys at a single time point. Using a structural equation model based on the two-mode model of self-control, we found that good self-control predicted increased use of three types of protective behavioral strategies (Manner of Drinking, Limiting/Stopping Drinking, and Serious Harm Reduction). Poor regulation was unrelated to use of protective behavioral strategies, but had direct effects on alcohol use and alcohol problems. Further, protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between good self-control and alcohol use. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22663345

  20. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress predict women's problematic alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzhauer, Cathryn Glanton; Wemm, Stephanie; Wulfert, Edelgard

    2017-06-01

    Research has shown that measures of reactivity to distress-including distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress-are dysregulated in women who misuse alcohol. These variables may interact and create a risk profile for young adult women, reflecting patterns of stress reactivity that confer a risk for alcohol misuse. The current study tested this hypothesis by examining the independent and interactive associations of subjective distress tolerance, behavioral distress tolerance, and physiological stress reactivity with women's alcohol misuse. The study was conducted with a sample of 91 college women recruited on a large northeastern university campus. Results showed that subjective levels of distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress (skin conductance reactivity, SCR), but not behavioral distress tolerance, were independently associated with alcohol misuse. In addition, subjective distress tolerance moderated the relationship between SCR and negative alcohol-related consequences. Specifically, women with low physiological reactivity (SCR) to a stressful task and greater urge to quickly rid themselves of distress (low subjective distress tolerance) endorsed a significantly greater number of adverse consequences from their alcohol use. These results extend prior findings by showing that, even among a nonclinical sample of women, lower stress reactivity in combination with low subjective distress tolerance is associated with increased risk for various drinking-related negative consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

    2018-05-01

    In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This

  4. Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach [Conference presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Gupta, R

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Gupta1_2008.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 13351 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Gupta1_2008.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Background and Motivation... (Economics), University of Pretoria 2Senior Researcher (Statistics), CSIR, Pretoria. SASA 2008 Gupta and Das Predicting downturns in US housing market Background and Motivation Models - VARs, BVARs and SBVARs Forecasting House Prices in the Twenty...

  5. An ecologically based model of alcohol-consumption decision making: evidence for the discriminative and predictive role of contextual reward and punishment information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R

    2009-05-01

    Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory.

  6. The interplay of trait anger, childhood physical abuse, and alcohol consumption in predicting intimate partner aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, Rosalita C; Watkins, Laura E; DiLillo, David

    2015-04-01

    The current study examined three well-established risk factors for intimate partner aggression (IPA) within Finkel and Eckhardt's I(3) model, including two impellance factors-trait anger and childhood physical abuse history-and the disinhibiting factor of alcohol consumption. Participants were 236 male and female college students in a committed heterosexual dating relationship who completed a battery of self-report measures assessing childhood physical abuse, trait anger, alcohol consumption, and IPA perpetration. Results revealed a significant three-way interaction showing that as the disinhibition factor alcohol consumption increased, the interaction of the two impelling factors, trait anger and childhood physical abuse, became increasingly more positive. Individuals who had high levels of childhood physical abuse and alcohol consumption were at greater risk of IPA perpetration when trait anger was high. Consistent with the I(3) model, these findings suggest that trait anger and a history of childhood physical abuse may increase tendencies to aggress against one's partner, whereas alcohol consumption may reduce individuals' abilities to manage these aggressive tendencies. The importance of interplay among these risk factors in elevating IPA risk is discussed, as are the implications for clinicians working with male and female IPA perpetrators. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. The gas market and sector in France. Situation and predictions 2018 - Sector and competitive analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    Through a detailed analysis of market determining factors, of evolutions of supply and demand, and of major events in firms life, this set of two reports proposes an analysis of the recent situation of the gas sector and of the evolutions of the competitive game. The first report on situation and predictions which is updated three times a year, proposes a synthesis on the consequences of the evolution of the economic environment, on major trends noticed for the sector, and on predictable evolutions. It proposes the most recent predictions regarding natural gas consumption in France and the turnover of the gas sector. It highlights recent events for companies of the sector: takeovers, investments, restructuring, introduction of new products, and so on. It proposes a sector-based dashboard which contains all the critical figures useful to analyse the sector situation (activity determining factors, key figures for the sector and its environment). The second report (the annual one) proposes an overview of trends and competition within the gas sector. It gives an overview of some basic aspects of the activity (sector organisation, gas categories, main customer markets, gas consumption in industry), and of its determining factors, analyses the sector environment (sites connected to the natural gas network, evolution of average temperatures in France, production by chemical industry, by the food industry, and by metallurgy and oil refining, thermal production of electricity, regulatory evolution regarding supports to energy efficiency, and new opportunities). The evolution of the sector activity is analysed through its trends and indicators (turnovers, gas consumption, butane-propane deliveries, wholesale prices, regulated tariffs). The economic structure is also analysed: aspects related to the upstream part (extraction, injection of biogas, natural gas main input and output points, transport and storage, natural gas distribution), and aspects related to gas provision

  8. PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOVAKIAN TIMBER TRADE ON GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Gejdoš

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management, prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.

  9. Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-12-01

    Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.

  10. The string prediction models as invariants of time series in the forex market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincak, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.

  11. Size matters: Installed maximal unit size predicts market life cycles of electricity generation technologies and systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, N.

    2008-01-01

    The electricity generation technologies and systems are complex and change in very dynamic fashions, with a multitude of energy sources and prime movers. Since an important concept in generator design is the 'economies of scale', we discover that the installed maximal unit size (capacity) of the generators is a key 'envelope-pushing' characteristic with logistical behaviors. The logistical wavelet analysis of the max unit sizes for different fuels and prime movers, and the cumulative capacities, reveals universal quantitative features in the aggregate evolution of the power industry. We extract the transition times of the max sizes (spanning 10-90% of the saturation limits) for different technologies and systems, and discover that the max size saturation in the 90-99% range precedes the saturation of cumulative capacities of the corresponding systems in the US. While these universal laws are still empirical, they give us a simple yet elegant framework to examine the evolution of the power industry and markets in predictive, not just descriptive, terms. Such laws give us a quantitative tool to spot trends and predict future development, invaluable in planning and resource allocation based on intrinsic technology and system market life cycles

  12. Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... their drinking causes distress and harm. It includes alcoholism and alcohol abuse. Alcoholism, or alcohol dependence, is a disease that causes ... the liver, brain, and other organs. Drinking during pregnancy can harm your baby. Alcohol also increases the ...

  13. Freshman year alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predict time to college graduation and subsequent adult roles and independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhite, Emily R; Ashenhurst, James R; Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

    2017-06-15

    This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N = 2,050). The second analyses corresponded to a subset of participants at age 27 (N = 575). Measures included self-reported substance use, adult role adoption, and university reported graduation dates. Results indicated that frequent binge drinking and marijuana use during freshman year predicted delayed college graduation. Those who took longer to graduate were more likely to have lower incomes and were less likely to obtain a graduate degree. Taking 5-6 years to graduate was associated with greater likelihood of alcohol-related problems. Findings support the importance of interventions during freshman year of college to decrease substance use and promote timely graduation.

  14. Variables predicting elevated portal pressure in alcoholic liver disease. Results of a multivariate analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogsgaard, K; Christensen, E; Gluud, C

    1987-01-01

    In 46 alcoholic patients the association of wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure with other variables (clinical, histologic, hemodynamic, and liver function data) was studied by means of multiple regression analysis, taking the wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure as the dependent variable. Four ...

  15. Do Negative Emotions Predict Alcohol Consumption, Saturated Fat Intake, and Physical Activity in Older Adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, Stephen D.; Miller, Peter M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined anger, depression, and stress as related to alcohol consumption, saturated fat intake, and physical activity. Participants were 23 older adults enrolled in either an outpatient or in-residence executive health program. Participants completed (a) a health-risk appraisal assessing medical history and current health habits, (b)…

  16. Relational aggression, positive urgency and negative urgency: predicting alcohol use and consequences among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W

    2014-09-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions.

  17. Do unfavourable alcohol, smoking, nutrition and physical activity predict sustained leisure time sedentary behaviour? A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nooijen, Carla F J; Möller, Jette; Forsell, Yvonne; Ekblom, Maria; Galanti, Maria R; Engström, Karin

    2017-08-01

    Comparing lifestyle of people remaining sedentary during longer periods of their life with those favourably changing their behaviour can provide cues to optimize interventions targeting sedentary behaviour. The objective of this study was to determine lifestyle predictors of sustained leisure time sedentary behaviour and assess whether these predictors were dependent on gender, age, socioeconomic position and occupational sedentary behaviour. Data from a large longitudinal population-based cohort of adults (aged 18-97years) in Stockholm responding to public health surveys in 2010 and 2014 were analysed (n=49,133). Leisure time sedentary behaviour was defined as >3h per day of leisure sitting time e.g. watching TV, reading or using tablet. Individuals classified as sedentary at baseline (n=9562) were subsequently categorized as remaining sedentary (n=6357) or reduced sedentary behaviour (n=3205) at follow-up. Lifestyle predictors were unfavourable alcohol consumption, smoking, nutrition, and physical activity. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated, adjusting for potential confounders. Unfavourable alcohol consumption (OR=1.22, CI:1.11-1.34), unfavourable candy- or cake consumption (OR=1.15, CI:1.05-1.25), and unfavourable physical activity in different contexts were found to predict sustained sedentary behaviour, with negligible differences according to gender, age, socioeconomic position and occupational sedentary behaviour. People with unfavourable lifestyle profiles regarding alcohol, sweets, or physical activity are more likely to remain sedentary compared to sedentary persons with healthier lifestyle. The impact of combining interventions to reduce leisure time sedentary behaviour with reducing alcohol drinking, sweet consumption and increasing physical activity should be tested as a promising strategy for behavioural modification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. THE EFFECTS OF BANKRUPTCY ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF PRICE FORMATION PROCESSES ON WARSAW’S STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Fiedor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate how bankruptcy affects the market behaviour of prices of stocks on Warsaw’s Stock Exchange. As the behaviour of prices can be seen in a myriad of ways, we investigate a particular aspect of this behaviour, namely the predictability of these price formation processes. We approximate their predictability as the structural complexity of logarithmic returns. This method of analysing predictability of price formation processes using information theory follows closely the mathematical definition of predictability, and is equal to the degree to which redundancy is present in the time series describing stock returns. We use Shannon’s entropy rate (approximating Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy to measure this redundancy, and estimate it using the Lempel-Ziv algorithm, computing it with a running window approach over the entire price history of 50 companies listed on the Warsaw market which have gone bankrupt in the last few years. This enables us not only to compare the differences between predictability of price formation processes before and after their filing for bankruptcy, but also to compare the changes in predictability over time, as well as divided into different categories of companies and bankruptcies. There exists a large body of research analysing the efficiency of the whole market and the predictability of price changes enlarge, but only a few detailed studies analysing the influence of external stimulion the efficiency of price formation processes. This study fills this gap in the knowledge of financial markets, and their response to extreme external events.

  19. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  20. IPR Policy Brief - Would you 'like' a drink? Youth drinking cultures, social media and alcohol marketing online

    OpenAIRE

    Griffin, Christine; Lyons, Antonia

    2013-01-01

    The high level of alcohol consumption amongst young people in countries with more liberal alcohol policies has been a focus of public health concern for some time. Many young adults regularly engage in heavy drinking episodes with groups of friends to ‘have fun’ and ‘be sociable’. More recently, this population has increased their use of new mobile and digital technologies (such as smartphones), and social networking Internet sites (such as Facebook and YouTube). Major alcohol companies are n...

  1. Does caffeine and alcohol intake before pregnancy predict the occurrence of spontaneous abortion?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolstrup, J S; Kjær, S. K.; Munk, C

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Consumption of caffeine and alcohol is suspected to affect pregnancy outcome. Use of both stimulants is widespread and even minor effects on fetal viability are of public health interest. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study using prospective data from a population.......72 (1.00-2.96) for a pre-pregnancy intake on 75-300, 301-500, 501-900 and >900 mg caffeine per day respectively (P = 0.05 for trend). A pre-pregnancy intake of alcohol was not a predictor for spontaneous abortion. CONCLUSIONS: A high intake of caffeine prior to pregnancy seems to be associated......-based cohort comprising 11088 women aged 20-29 years. From this cohort, women who experienced either a spontaneous abortion (n = 303) or who gave birth (n = 1381) during follow-up [mean time: 2.1 years (range: 1.6-3.4)] were selected. Associations between self-reported exposures to caffeine and/or alcohol...

  2. APPROACHING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION ON BASE OF LOWERING RISKS OF UKRAINIAN CONSUMERS AT WINE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Starostina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development of theoretical principles of conception of the perceived risk is considered. Methodology of marketing research of the perceived risks at the market of dry wine of Kyiv is shown. Searching questions, hypotheses, methods of statistical verification of hypotheses of marketing research are shown. Estimation of dry wine customers of separate components of the perceived risk and strategies of their decline are described. Concrete directions of the development of market strategy and marketing-mix, which take into account the estimation of the perceived risks and strategies of their diminishing, are offered.

  3. The electricity market. Situation and predictions 2018 - Sectoral and competitive analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    This document comprises two reports. A first one, published and updated three times a year, and a second one which is a yearly publication. The first one, based on an analysis of market perspectives and of actor strategies, proposes a synthesis on the consequences of the evolution of the economic environment, on major trends noticed for the electric power sector, and on predictable evolutions. It proposes the most recent data regarding the activities of about 200 firms belonging to the power sector (notably in terms of turnover and of electric power consumption). It highlights recent events for companies of the sector: takeovers, investments, restructuring, introduction of new products, and so on. It proposes a sector-based dashboard which contains all the critical figures useful to analyse the sector situation (activity determining factors, key figures for the sector and its environment). The annual report proposes a presentation of the sector and of the determining factors of its activity, an analysis of the activity evolution (trends, indicators like turnover, electric power consumption and production, prices and regulated tariffs, power imports and exports), a presentation of financial performance of electricity producers, a description of the sector economic structure (evolution of the economic tissue, analysis of structural characteristics), and a presentation of actors and of the competitive landscape (ranking and positioning of electric power providers and producers, market shares, identity sheets of the main actors, highlights, and ranking of the main companies in terms of turnover and of financial performance)

  4. Tobacco and alcohol billboards in 50 Chicago neighborhoods: market segmentation to sell dangerous products to the poor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackbarth, D P; Silvestri, B; Cosper, W

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes a study of billboard advertising of tobacco and alcohol products in the city of Chicago. All billboards were counted and their advertising themes noted. These data were matched with information on population and race from the 1990 census in order to document which geographic areas of the city, if any, had excess tobacco or alcohol billboards. The data revealed that minority wards were burdened with three times as many tobacco billboards and five times as many alcohol billboards when compared to white wards. The findings are congruent with studies conducted in other urban areas, which demonstrate a consistent pattern of tobacco and alcohol advertisers targeting poor and minority neighborhoods for outdoor advertising of their dangerous products. Chicago legislative initiatives based on the billboard study are described.

  5. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  6. Minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost in electricity markets based on the prediction error of energy consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Yamaguchi, Naoya; Hori, Maiya; Ideguchi, Yoshinari

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\\it day-ahead} and {\\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices and the distributions of prediction errors for the electricity demand traded in two markets are known. The expectation value of the total electricity cost is minimised over two parameters that change the amounts of electricity. Two parameters depend only on t...

  7. Unpacking policy formulation and industry influence: the case of the draft control of marketing of alcoholic beverages bill in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertscher, Adam; London, Leslie; Orgill, Marsha

    2018-06-21

    Alcohol is a major contributor to the Non-Communicable Disease burden in South Africa. In 2000, 7.1% of all deaths and 7% of total disability-adjusted life years were ascribed to alcohol-related harm in the country. Regulations proposed to restrict alcohol advertising in South Africa present an evidence-based upstream intervention. Research on policy formulation in low- and middle-income countries is limited. This study aims to describe and explore the policy formulation process of the 2013 draft Control of Marketing of Alcoholic Beverages Bill in South Africa between March 2011 and May 2017. Recognising the centrality of affected actors in policy-making processes, the study focused on the alcohol industry as a central actor affected by the policy, to understand how they-together with other actors-may influence the policy formulation process. A qualitative case study approach was used, involving a stakeholder mapping, 10 in-depth interviews, and review of approximately 240 documents. A policy formulation conceptual framework was successfully applied as a lens to describe a complex policy formulation process. Key factors shaping policy formulation included: (1) competing and shared values-different stakeholders promote conflicting ideals for policymaking; (2) inter-department jostling-different government departments seek to protect their own functions, hindering policy development; (3) stakeholder consultation in democratic policymaking-policy formulation requires consultations even with those opposed to regulation and (4) battle for evidence-evidence is used strategically by all parties to shape perceptions and leverage positions. This research (1) contributes to building an integrated body of knowledge on policy formulation in low- and middle-income countries; (2) shows that achieving policy coherence across government departments poses a major challenge to achieving effective health policy formulation and (3) shows that networks of actors with commercial and

  8. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Sofin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1% of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9% dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.

  9. Alcohol use and alcohol/marijuana use during the most recent sexual experience differentially predict characteristics of the sexual experience among sexually active young adult drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairlie, Anne M; Garcia, Tracey A; Lee, Christine M; Lewis, Melissa A

    2018-07-01

    Few studies have examined associations between using alcohol only and using both alcohol and marijuana with sexual behavior on specific occasions. The current study examined alcohol and marijuana use during the most recent sexual experience in association with relationship characteristics, psychological issues, and condom use. Young adult drinkers aged 18-25 who reported not using a condom during sex in the past month were recruited nationally. An analytic subsample (N = 378) was identified based on substance use during the most recent sexual experience [53% female, 70% Caucasian; mean age = 22.42 years (SD = 1.90)]. Using logistic regression, two dummy codes compared the alcohol use only group (n = 197) and the both alcohol and marijuana group (n = 95) to the group who used neither substance (n = 86). Participant sex, drinking frequency, and number of sexual partners were included as covariates. The alcohol only group and the both alcohol and marijuana group had greater odds of being with a casual acquaintance and loss of respect compared to the group who used neither substance. The alcohol only group had greater odds of being with someone they just met and embarrassment compared to the group who used neither substance. No associations were found for condom use or emotional difficulties. Preventative interventions may need to address both alcohol and marijuana to more effectively reduce risky behaviors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The clinical features of alcohol use disorders in biological and step-fathers that predict risk for alcohol use disorders in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Ohlsson, Henrik; Edwards, Alexis; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2017-12-01

    Given that Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) is clinically heterogeneous, can we, in a large epidemiological sample using public registries, identify clinical features of AUD cases in biological and step-fathers that index, respectively, genetic and familial-environmental risk for AUD in their offspring? From all father-offspring pairs where the father had AUD and the offspring was born 1960-1990, we identified not-lived-with (NLW) biological fathers (n = 38,376) and step-father pairs (n = 9,711). The relationship between clinical and historical features of the father's AUD and risk for AUD in offspring was assessed by linear hazard regression. Age at first registration for AUD and recurrence of AUD registration were significantly stronger predictors of risk for AUD in the offspring of NLW fathers than in step-fathers. By contrast, number of AUD registrations in NLW fathers and step-fathers were equally predictive of risk for AUD in offspring. However, while the number of step-father AUD registrations that occurred when he was living them with significantly predicted risk for AUD in his step-children, the number of registrations that occurred when not residing with his step-children was unassociated with their AUD risk. In an epidemiological sample, we could meaningfully differentiate between features of AUD in fathers that indexed genetic risk which was transmitted to biological offspring (early age at onset and recurrence) versus indexed environmental risk (registrations while rearing) which increased risk in step-children. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Alcohol in moderation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller, Simone; Lockshin, Larry; Louviere, Jordan J.

    2011-01-01

    products identified, which are jointly purchased with low alcohol wines. The effect of a tax increase on substitution patterns between alcoholic beverages is examined. Methodology: In a discrete choice experiment, based on their last purchase, consumers select one or several different alcoholic beverages......Purpose: The study examines the market potential for low and very low alcohol wine products under two different tax regimes. The penetration and market share of low alcohol wine are estimated under both tax conditions. Consumers’ alcoholic beverage purchase portfolios are analysed and those...... into a purchase basket. An experimental design controlled the beverages’ price variation. Applying an intra-individual research design, respondents’ purchases were simulated under current and increased taxes. Findings: A market potential for low and very low wine products of up to ten percent of the wine market...

  12. Serum adipokines might predict liver histology findings in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamali, Raika; Razavizade, Mohsen; Arj, Abbas; Aarabi, Mohammad Hossein

    2016-06-07

    To assess significance of serum adipokines to determine the histological severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Patients with persistent elevation in serum aminotransferase levels and well-defined characteristics of fatty liver at ultrasound were enrolled. Individuals with a history of alcohol consumption, hepatotoxic medication, viral hepatitis or known liver disease were excluded. Liver biopsy was performed to confirm non-alcoholic liver disease (NAFLD). The degrees of liver steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis were determined based on the non-alcoholic fatty liver activity score (NAS) by a single expert pathologist. Patients with a NAS of five or higher were considered to have steatohepatitis. Those with a NAS of two or lower were defined as simple fatty liver. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the independent association of adipokines with histological findings. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to determine cut-off values of serum adipokines to discriminate the grades of liver steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis. Fifty-four participants aged 37.02 ± 9.82 were enrolled in the study. Higher serum levels of visfatin, IL-8, TNF-α levels were associated independently with steatosis grade of more than 33% [β = 1.08 (95%CI: 1.03-1.14), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.008-1.07), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.004-1.08), P < 0.05]. Elevated serum IL-6 and IL-8 levels were associated independently with advanced lobular inflammation [β = 1.4 (95%CI: 1.09-1.8), 1.07 (95%CI: 1.003-1.15), P < 0.05]. Similarly, higher TNF-α, resistin, and hepcidin levels were associated independently with advanced fibrosis stage [β = 1.06 (95%CI: 1.002-1.12), 19.86 (95%CI: 2.79-141.19), 560.72 (95%CI: 5.98-5255.33), P < 0.05]. Serum IL-8 and TNF-α values were associated independently with the NAS score, considering a NAS score of 5 as the reference value [β = 1.05 (95%CI: 1.01-1.1), 1.13 (95%CI: 1.04-1.22), P < 0.05]. Certain adipokines may

  13. Prediction of incidence and stability of alcohol use disorders by latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

    2017-10-01

    Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of Smoking, Alcohol, Drugs, and Psychoactive Drugs Abuse Based on Emotional Dysregulation and Child Abuse Experience in People with Borderline Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M GannadiFarnood

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This research was an attempt to predict the tendency of people having borderline personality traits to smoking, drinking alcohol, and taking psychoactive drugs based on emotional dysregulation and child abuse. Method: This study employed a correlation method which is categorized in descriptive category. A sample including 600 male and female bachelor students of Tabriz University was selected by cluster sampling. Then, high risk behaviors scale, Emotional dysregulation Scale, Child abuse scale, and borderline personality scale (STB were distributed among this group. Findings: Stepwise multiple regression analysis suggested that emotional dysregulation and child abuse significantly predicted varying degrees of smoking, drug, and alcohol usage. Conclusion: The research findings suggest the basic role of initial biological vulnerability in terms of emotional regulation (dysregulation and invalidating family environment (child abuse in the prediction of catching the disorder of borderline personality traits and producing high riskbehaviorssuch as alcohol drink and drug usage.

  15. Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chih, Ming-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

  16. Recall of Point-of-Sale Marketing Predicts Cigar and E-Cigarette Use among Texas Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasch, Keryn E; Nicksic, Nicole E; Opara, Samuel C; Jackson, Christian; Harrell, Melissa B; Perry, Cheryl L

    2017-10-23

    While research has documented associations between recall of point-of sale tobacco marketing and youth tobacco use, much of the research is cross-sectional and focused on cigarettes. The present longitudinal study examined recall of tobacco marketing at the point-of-sale and multiple types of tobacco use six months later. The Texas Adolescent Tobacco Advertising and Marketing Surveillance System (TATAMS) is a large-scale, representative study of 6th, 8th, and 10th graders in 79 middle and high schools in five counties in Texas. Weighted logistic regression examined associations between recall of tobacco advertisements and products on display at baseline and ever use, current use, and susceptibility to use for cigarette, e-cigarette, cigar, and smokeless products six months later. Students' recall of signs marketing e-cigarettes at baseline predicted ever e-cigarette use and increased susceptibility to use e-cigarettes at follow-up across all store types. Recall of e-cigarette displays only predicted susceptibility to use e-cigarettes at follow-up, across all store types. Both recall of signs marketing cigars and cigar product displays predicted current and ever cigar smoking and increased susceptibility to smoking cigars at follow-up, across all store types. Recall of cigarette and smokeless product marketing and displays was not associated with tobacco use measures. The point-of-sale environment continues to be an important influence on youth tobacco use. Restrictions on point-of-sale marketing, particularly around schools, are warranted. Cross-sectional studies have shown that exposure to point-of-sale cigarette marketing is associated with use of cigarettes among youth, though longitudinal evidence of the same is sparse and mixed. Cross-sectional studies have found that recall of cigars, smokeless product, and e-cigarette tobacco marketing at point-of-sale is associated with curiosity about tobacco use or intentions to use tobacco among youth, but limited

  17. The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

    2016-08-01

    The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider

  18. Reward and relief craving tendencies in patients with alcohol use disorders: results from the PREDICT study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glöckner-Rist, Angelika; Lémenager, Tagrid; Mann, Karl

    2013-02-01

    Previous research suggests that patients' tendencies toward either reward or relief craving are distinct continuous factorial dimensions of craving for alcohol. According to these tendencies patients with alcohol use disorders (AUD) might also be allocated into distinct subgroups. In personalized treatment, patients of such different subgroups might respond differently to various psychotherapeutic and pharmacological interventions aimed at relapse prevention. To establish that the items of the subscale Temptation to Drink of the Alcohol Abstinence Self-Efficacy Scale (AASE) capture two continuous dimensions of reward and relief craving, and that they allow the identification of respective discrete class factors and subgroups of patients with AUD. Nonlinear confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and latent class factor analysis (LCFA) were performed with data from 426 detoxified patients with AUD. The validity of continuous relief and reward dimensions, discrete class factors, and subtypes with different craving tendencies was established by including past drinking in positive and negative settings, gender, trait anxiety and perceived stress as covariates in the finally accepted CFA and LCFA measurement models. The AASE temptation items formed two continuous relief and reward craving factors. They also associated themselves to two binary class factors, which defined four craving subgroups. Two of them (21% and 29% of patients) were characterized by high levels of either reward or relief craving tendencies. A third subgroup (31%) rated both tendencies in an equal high measure, while a fourth (18%) reported almost no craving tendencies at all. Past drinking in negative and positive settings was significantly associated with relief or reward craving tendencies. Male patients reported reward drinking more frequently than female patients. Trait anxiety was positively related only to the relief craving tendency. Unexpectedly, patients' level of perceived stress was associated

  19. Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

    2014-07-01

    No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

  20. Alcohol levels do not accurately predict physical or mental impairment in ethanol-tolerant subjects: relevance to emergency medicine and dram shop laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James R; Dollard, Denis

    2010-12-01

    The human body and the central nervous system can develop tremendous tolerance to ethanol. Mental and physical dysfunctions from ethanol, in an alcohol-tolerant individual, do not consistently correlate with ethanol levels traditionally used to define intoxication, or even lethality, in a nontolerant subject. Attempting to relate observed signs of alcohol intoxication or impairment, or to evaluate sobriety, by quantifying blood alcohol levels can be misleading, if not impossible. We report a case demonstrating the disconnect between alcohol levels and generally assigned parameters of intoxication and impairment. In this case, an alcohol-tolerant man, with a serum ethanol level of 515 mg/dl, appeared neurologically intact and cognitively normal. This individual was without objective signs of impairment or intoxication by repeated evaluations by experienced emergency physicians. In alcohol-tolerant individuals, blood alcohol levels cannot always be predicted by and do not necessarily correlate with outward appearance, overt signs of intoxication, or physical examination. This phenomenon must be acknowledged when analyzing medical decision making in the emergency department or when evaluating the ability of bartenders and party hosts to identify intoxication in dram shop cases.

  1. Analysis and Prediction of ’94-’95 Auto Market in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1995-01-01

    <正> After a sluggish market in 1994, both the sale and the production of automobiles will be raised constantly in China, especially in the second half of 1995. In order to understand this, we shall begin with the analysis of the auto market in 1994. Retrospect of China’s Auto Market in 1994

  2. Improved Methods for Predicting Property Prices in Hazard Prone Dynamic Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Koning, Koen; Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung

    Property prices are affected by changing market conditions, incomes and preferences of people. Price trends in natural hazard zones may shift significantly and abruptly after a disaster signalling structural systemic changes in property markets. It challenges accurate market assessments of property

  3. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  4. Alcohol Alert

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of Alcohol Consumption Alcohol's Effects on the Body Alcohol Use Disorder Fetal Alcohol Exposure Support & Treatment Alcohol Policy Special ... 466 KB] No. 81: Exploring Treatment Options for Alcohol Use Disorders [ PDF - 539K] No. 80: Alcohol and HIV/AIDS: ...

  5. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. What We Fund - Alcohol

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    NCDP

    Analysis of the regulatory environment (national ... Predicting and evaluating policy impact. PA. N ... constrain the use of a holistic approach engaging ... alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink industries, ... Alcohol and Other Drugs, 2003.

  7. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  8. Implicit and explicit drinker identities interactively predict in-the-moment alcohol placebo consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Frings

    2016-06-01

    Conclusion: These results suggest that explicit identities may be associated more with those beliefs about drinking that one is aware of than behavioral intention. In addition, explicit identities may not predict behavioral enactment well. Implicit identity shows effects on actual behavior and not behavioral intention. Together this highlights the differential influence of reflective (explicit and impulsive (implicit identity in-the-moment behavior.

  9. Ethyl carbamate in alcoholic beverages from Mexico (tequila, mezcal, bacanora, sotol) and Guatemala (cuxa): market survey and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Kanteres, Fotis; Kuballa, Thomas; López, Mercedes G; Rehm, Jürgen

    2009-01-01

    Ethyl carbamate (EC) is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110), and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16) were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (Mexico.

  10. Prediction Markets: A Review with an Experimentally Based Recommendation for Navy Force-shaping Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    participation problem in which rational traders have no further incentive or desire to trade once they already have hedged their bets (Hanson, 2003...traders who already have hedged their bets in other markets (Abramowicz, 2003, p. 24). A thin market generally leads to comparatively large price...prices. Contract prices should be set at a reasonable level to ensure there is not an overwhelming arbitrage opportunity when the market opens

  11. Factores predictores de uso problemático de alcohol en personas atendidas en una sala de emergencia Predictive factors of alcohol use problems among patients visiting an emergency room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabián Fiestas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos. Valorar el efecto predictivo de características claves de pacientes atendidos en salas de emergencia para detectar casos de uso problemático de alcohol. Materiales y Métodos. La muestra de estudio estuvo constituida por 371 personas atendidas en el lapso de siete días completos de enero de 2005 en el servicio de emergencia de un hospital público de Lima, Perú. Se aplicó un cuestionario demográfico, el SIDUC/CICAD para uso reciente de sustancias psicoactivas en salas de emergencias (i.e., uso dentro de las seis horas previas a la atención y el AUDIT para uso problemático de alcohol en el último año. El análisis de regresión logística simple y multivariada permitió valorar el efecto predictor de la edad, sexo, especialidad del servicio de atención, presencia de daño físico y el uso reciente de alcohol para detectar casos problemáticos de su uso. Resultados. El odds de tener uso problemático de alcohol en los varones es 26 veces el odds de tener dicho problema entre las mujeres (pObjectives. To assess the predictive effect of key individual-level characteristics to identify cases of alcohol use problems among patients visiting an emergency room. Materials and methods. The study sample was composed of 371 people attending an emergency room in a public hospital in Lima, Peru, during a period of seven complete days in January, 2005. For data gathering, we used a questionnaire for demographic information, the SIDUC/CICAD for recent use (i.e., in the last 6 hours of psychoactive substances before arriving to the emergency room, and the AUDIT, to identify alcohol use problems in the last year. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive effect of age, sex, area of attention in the emergency room, presence of physical injuries and recent use of alcohol. Results. The odds of being a case of alcohol use problem for males is 26 times the odds of having that problem for females (p

  12. Severe Alcoholic Pancreatitis-Associated Acute Lung Injury in Veterans: Risks, Mechanisms, Prediction, and Therapeutic Relevance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Background: Acute pancreatitis is a painful, potentially life -threatening condition of the...pancreas with an unpredictable course. In this study we hope to identify and propose simple and reliable ways to predict and treat acute...time period of 9/30/2016-9/29/2017. Acute pancreatitis is a painful, potentially life -threatening condition of the pancreas with a typically abrupt

  13. High-normal levels of hs-CRP predict the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver in healthy men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieun Lee

    Full Text Available We performed a follow-up study to address whether high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP levels within the normal range can predict the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD in healthy male subjects. Among15347 male workers between 30 and 59 years old who received annual health check-ups in 2002, a NAFLD-free cohort of 4,138 was followed through December 2009. Alcohol consumption was assessed with a questionnaire. At each visit, abdominal ultrasonography was performed to identify fatty liver disease. The COX proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the relationship between hs-CRP and incident NAFLD. During the follow-up period, 28.8% (1191 of 4138 of participants developed NAFLD. The hazard ratios of NAFLD were increased by hs-CRP categories within the normal range in the non-adjusted model and age-adjusted model. After adjusting for age, exercise, smoking, BMI, systolic BP, triglyceride, and fasting glucose, these incidences were only increased between the lowest and the highest hs-CRP categories. The risk for NAFLD increased as the hs-CRP level increased (p< 0.001. As the hs-CRP level increased within the healthy cohort, the risk of developing NAFLD increased. This trend remained true even if the hs-CRP level remained within the normal range. hs-CRP can be used as a predictor of NAFLD, as well as other obesity-associated diseases. Therefore, individuals with higher hs-CRP levels (even within the normal range may require appropriate follow-up and management to prevent NAFLD development.

  14. Sexual Markets or Black Markets?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes-Green, Christian

    2014-01-01

    sex with sugar-daddies, called sponsors or patrons, who provide for them in exchange for sex while male peers often become street vendors, street artists or petty criminals engaged in the so-called ‘black’ markets of theft, sale of counterfeits, and circulation of stolen goods, alcohol and drugs. As I...... show, these gendered markets are highly entangled and interdependent, and as I argue, male and female markets use many of the same technologies, sources and circuits of exchange...

  15. Market powers predict reciprocal grooming in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Wei

    Full Text Available Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming.

  16. Market powers predict reciprocal grooming in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Qi, Xiao-Guang; Guo, Song-Tao; Zhao, Da-Peng; Zhang, Peng; Huang, Kang; Li, Bao-Guo

    2012-01-01

    Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers) directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers) and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming.

  17. Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Tyng Chen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Methods: Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Results: Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the

  18. Fatty liver index vs waist circumference for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motamed, Nima; Sohrabi, Masoudreza; Ajdarkosh, Hossein; Hemmasi, Gholamreza; Maadi, Mansooreh; Sayeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Pirzad, Reza; Abedi, Khadijeh; Aghapour, Sivil; Fallahnezhad, Mojtaba; Zamani, Farhad

    2016-03-14

    To determine the discriminatory performance of fatty liver index (FLI) for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The data of 5052 subjects aged over 18 years were analyzed. FLI was calculated from body mass index, waist circumference (WC), triglyceride, and gamma glutamyl transferase data. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between FLI and NAFLD. The discriminatory performance of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curves (AUCs) and related confidence intervals were estimated. Optimal cutoff points of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD were determined based on the maximum values of Youden's index. The mean age of men and women in the study population were 44.8 ± 16.8 and 43.78 ± 15.43, respectively (P = 0.0216). The prevalence of NAFLD was 40.1% in men and 44.2% in women (P < 0.0017). FLI was strongly associated with NAFLD, so that even a one unit increase in FLI increased the chance of developing NAFLD by 5.8% (OR = 1.058, 95%CI: 1.054-1.063, P < 0.0001). Although FLI showed good performance in the diagnosis of NAFLD (AUC = 0.8656 (95%CI: 0.8548-0.8764), there was no significant difference with regards to WC (AUC = 0.8533, 95%CI: 0.8419-0.8646). The performance of FLI was not significantly different between men (AUC = 0.8648, 95%CI: 0.8505-0.8791) and women (AUC = 0.8682, 95%CI: 0.8513-0.8851). The highest performance with regards to age was related to the 18-39 age group (AUC = 0.8930, 95%CI: 0.8766-0.9093). The optimal cutoff points of FLI were 46.9 in men (sensitivity = 0.8242, specificity = 0.7687, Youden's index = 0.5929) and 53.8 in women (sensitivity = 0.8233, specificity = 0.7655, Youden's index = 0.5888). Although FLI had acceptable discriminatory power in the diagnosis of NAFLD, WC was a simpler and more accessible index with a similar performance.

  19. On Setting Day-Ahead Equity Trading Risk Limits: VaR Prediction at Market Close or Open?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria Fuertes

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight close-to-open price variation. The benchmark is the bivariate VaR modeling approach proposed by Ahoniemi et al. that constructs the forecast at the market close instead and, accordingly, it models separately the daytime and overnight return processes and their covariance. For a small cap portfolio, the bivariate VaR approach affords superior predictive ability than the ex post overnight VaR approach whereas for a large cap portfolio the results are reversed. The contrast indicates that price discovery at the market open is less efficient for small capitalization, thinly traded stocks.

  20. Generation of predictive price and trading volume patterns in a model of dynamically evolving free market supply and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Wang

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and share demand as a function of price deviation from moving averages. Price charts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolving supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with dependence on price history.

  1. Competitive Patterns in the Danish Organic Industry & its Usefulness in Predicting Development in other EU Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Jens; Linneberg, Mai Skjøtt

    2003-01-01

    The organic market in Denmark is not a niche market any longer as it was in the late 1980s. The development has followed the typical pattern for diffusion of innovations and by 2002 the market supply seemed to have surpassed the equilibrium supply by around 30% and a potential adjustment is ahead...... the industry. In general, Denmark can be regarded as a frontrunner in organic development. Therefore, important clues concerning the development in other EU countries can be found, and the following points are analysed to evaluate if similar developments can be expected. Can the Danish diffusion path...... for organic development be expected in other countries? Will the supply in other EU markets also surpass market equilibrium? Are the Danish experiences with respect to policy choices and power-play of dominant players in processing and distribution industry of general relevance? Are the maturity gains...

  2. Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

  3. Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xisca Sureda

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time.

  4. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G. R. William; Robinson, Timothy P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P.; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Hay, Simon I.; Yu, Hongjie

    2014-01-01

    Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease. PMID:24937647

  5. Tackling alcohol misuse: purchasing patterns affected by minimum pricing for alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludbrook, Anne; Petrie, Dennis; McKenzie, Lynda; Farrar, Shelley

    2012-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is associated with a range of health and social harms that increase with the level of consumption. Policy makers are interested in effective and cost-effective interventions to reduce alcohol consumption and associated harms. Economic theory and research evidence demonstrate that increasing price is effective at the population level. Price interventions that target heavier consumers of alcohol may be more effective at reducing alcohol-related harms with less impact on moderate consumers. Minimum pricing per unit of alcohol has been proposed on this basis but concerns have been expressed that 'moderate drinkers of modest means' will be unfairly penalized. If those on low incomes are disproportionately affected by a policy that removes very cheap alcohol from the market, the policy could be regressive. The effect on households' budgets will depend on who currently purchases cheaper products and the extent to which the resulting changes in prices will impact on their demand for alcohol. This paper focuses on the first of these points. This paper aims to identify patterns of purchasing of cheap off-trade alcohol products, focusing on income and the level of all alcohol purchased. Three years (2006-08) of UK household survey data were used. The Expenditure and Food Survey provides comprehensive 2-week data on household expenditure. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between the purchase of cheap off-trade alcohol, household income levels and whether the household level of alcohol purchasing is categorized as moderate, hazardous or harmful, while controlling for other household and non-household characteristics. Predicted probabilities and quantities for cheap alcohol purchasing patterns were generated for all households. The descriptive statistics and regression analyses indicate that low-income households are not the predominant purchasers of any alcohol or even of cheap alcohol. Of those who do purchase off-trade alcohol

  6. Life Course Trajectories of Labour Market Participation among Young Adults Who Experienced Severe Alcohol-Related Health Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paljärvi, Tapio; Martikainen, Pekka; Pensola, Tiina; Leinonen, Taina; Herttua, Kimmo; Mäkelä, Pia

    2015-01-01

    Long-term employment trajectories of young problem drinkers are poorly understood. We constructed retrospective labour market participation histories at ages 18-34 of 64 342 persons born in 1969-1982. Beginning from the year of each subject's 18th birthday, we extracted information from the records of Statistics Finland on educational attainment, main type of economic activity, months in employment, and months in unemployment for a minimum of seven years (range 7-16 years). We used information on the timing of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in the same period to define problem drinkers with early onset limited course, early onset persistent course, and late onset problem drinking. Early onset limited course problem drinkers improved their employment considerably by age, whereas early onset persistent problem drinkers experienced a constant decline in their employment by age. From the age of 18 to 34, early onset persistent problem drinkers were in employment merely 12% of the time, in comparison with 39% among the early onset limited course problem drinkers, and 58% among the general population. These results indicate that young adults who were retrospectively defined as having early onset persistent course problem drinking were extensively marginalized from the labour market early on during their life course, and that their employment trajectory was significantly worse compared to other problem drinkers.

  7. Life Course Trajectories of Labour Market Participation among Young Adults Who Experienced Severe Alcohol-Related Health Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tapio Paljärvi

    Full Text Available Long-term employment trajectories of young problem drinkers are poorly understood.We constructed retrospective labour market participation histories at ages 18-34 of 64 342 persons born in 1969-1982. Beginning from the year of each subject's 18th birthday, we extracted information from the records of Statistics Finland on educational attainment, main type of economic activity, months in employment, and months in unemployment for a minimum of seven years (range 7-16 years. We used information on the timing of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in the same period to define problem drinkers with early onset limited course, early onset persistent course, and late onset problem drinking.Early onset limited course problem drinkers improved their employment considerably by age, whereas early onset persistent problem drinkers experienced a constant decline in their employment by age. From the age of 18 to 34, early onset persistent problem drinkers were in employment merely 12% of the time, in comparison with 39% among the early onset limited course problem drinkers, and 58% among the general population.These results indicate that young adults who were retrospectively defined as having early onset persistent course problem drinking were extensively marginalized from the labour market early on during their life course, and that their employment trajectory was significantly worse compared to other problem drinkers.

  8. Predicting Days on Market: The Influence of Environmental and Home Attributes

    OpenAIRE

    Robert P. Culp

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates the difference in the number of days a home will remain on the market based upon its environmental attributes. Using on-site inspections of 3088 home sites, the results, using two-stage least squares, show that time on market is reduced and price increased by a variety of green features such as trees, landscaping, open spaces and parks, while time on market is increased and/or price decreased by man-made obstructions such as power lines, roads near the home, train tracks,...

  9. Implicit alcohol attitudes predict drinking behaviour over and above intentions and willingness in young adults but willingness is more important in adolescents: Implications for the Prototype Willingness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Emma L; Paltoglou, Aspasia E; Foxcroft, David R

    2017-05-01

    Dual process models, such as the Prototype Willingness Model (PWM), propose to account for both intentional and reactive drinking behaviour. Current methods of measuring constructs in the PWM rely on self-report, thus require a level of conscious deliberation. Implicit measures of attitudes may overcome this limitation and contribute to our understanding of how prototypes and willingness influence alcohol consumption in young people. This study aimed to explore whether implicit alcohol attitudes were related to PWM constructs and whether they would add to the prediction of risky drinking. The study involved a cross-sectional design. The sample included 501 participants from the United Kingdom (M age 18.92; range 11-51; 63% female); 230 school pupils and 271 university students. Participants completed explicit measures of alcohol prototype perceptions, willingness, drunkenness, harms, and intentions. They also completed an implicit measure of alcohol attitudes, using the Implicit Association Test. Implicit alcohol attitudes were only weakly related to the explicit measures. When looking at the whole sample, implicit alcohol attitudes did not add to the prediction of willingness over and above prototype perceptions. However, for university students implicit attitudes added to the prediction of behaviour, over and above intentions and willingness. For school pupils, willingness was a stronger predictor of behaviour than intentions or implicit attitudes. Adding implicit measures to the PWM may contribute to our understanding of the development of alcohol behaviours in young people. Further research could explore how implicit attitudes develop alongside the shift from reactive to planned behaviour. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Young people's drinking tends to occur in social situations and is driven in part by social reactions within these contexts. The Prototype Willingness Model (PWM) attempts to explain such reactive behaviour as

  10. Global alcohol policy and the alcohol industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Peter

    2009-05-01

    The WHO is preparing its global strategy on alcohol, and, in so doing, has been asked to consult with the alcohol industry on ways it could contribute in reducing the harm done by alcohol. This review asks which is more effective in reducing harm: the regulatory approaches that the industry does not favour; or the educational approaches that it does favour. The current literature overwhelmingly finds that regulatory approaches (including those that manage the price, availability, and marketing of alcohol) reduce the risk of and the experience of alcohol-related harm, whereas educational approaches (including school-based education and public education campaigns) do not, with industry-funded education actually increasing the risk of harm. The alcohol industry should not be involved in making alcohol policy. Its involvement in implementing policy should be restricted to its role as a producer, distributor, and marketer of alcohol. In particular, the alcohol industry should not be involved in educational programmes, as such involvement could actually lead to an increase in harm.

  11. Ethyl Carbamate in Alcoholic Beverages from Mexico (Tequila, Mezcal, Bacanora, Sotol and Guatemala (Cuxa: Market Survey and Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Rehm

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethyl carbamate (EC is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110, and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16 were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (<0.15 mg/L. Risk assessment found the Margin of Exposure (MOE in line with that of European spirits. It is therefore unlikely that EC plays a role in high rates of liver cirrhosis reported in Mexico.

  12. Serum immunoglobulin levels predict fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPherson, Stuart; Henderson, Elsbeth; Burt, Alastair D; Day, Christopher P; Anstee, Quentin M

    2014-05-01

    A third of the population are estimated to have NAFLD of varying severity. Serum immunoglobulins are frequently elevated in patients with chronic liver disease, but little is known about serum immunoglobulin levels in patients with NAFLD. Aim of this study was to evaluate serum immunoglobulin levels (IgA, IgG, and IgM) in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and determine if immunoglobulin levels are associated with clinical or histological features. Patients seen in a tertiary fatty liver clinic between 1999 and 2009 were included. Liver biopsies were assessed using the Kleiner score. Immunoglobulin levels and other blood tests were taken at time of biopsy. 285 patients (110 simple steatosis and 175 NASH) had serum immunoglobulins measured within 6months of liver biopsy. 130 (46%) patients had elevated (>1× upper limit of normal) serum IgA levels, 28 (10%) patients had elevated IgG and 22 (8%) raised IgM. Serum IgA levels were elevated more frequently in patients with NASH compared with subjects with simple steatosis (55% vs. 31%, pliver fibrosis (Kleiner stage 3-4). There was a significant positive association between serum IgA levels and the stage of fibrosis (pfibrosis following multivariate analysis. A model constructed from these independent predictors accurately predicted advanced fibrosis (AUROC 0.87). The serum IgA level was frequently elevated in patients with NAFLD and was an independent predictor of advanced fibrosis. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. PER1 rs3027172 Genotype Interacts with Early Life Stress to Predict Problematic Alcohol Use, but Not Reward-Related Ventral Striatum Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranger, David A. A.; Ifrah, Chloé; Prather, Aric A.; Carey, Caitlin E.; Corral-Frías, Nadia S.; Drabant Conley, Emily; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Bogdan, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS) (n = 665), we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) as well as ventral striatum (VS) reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired). Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene × covariate and environment × covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p < 0.05, corrected) while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, ELS, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene × environment interactions. PMID:27065929

  14. PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacts with early life stress to predict problematic alcohol use, but not reward-related ventral striatum activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David eBaranger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (n=665, we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test as well as ventral striatum (VS reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired. Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene x covariate and environment x covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p<0.05, corrected while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, early life stress, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene x environment interactions.

  15. Marketing marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Karel Jan van Alsem

    2013-01-01

    In deze installatierede betoogt Karel Jan Alsem dat marketing een grotere strategische rol in organisaties zou moeten krijgen. Want marketing is bij uitstek de verbinding tussen klantwensen en het DNA van een organisatie. Doordat merken gemiddeld voor mensen niet heel belangrijk zijn, is goede

  16. Typology of Couples Entering Alcohol Behavioral Couple Therapy: An Empirical Approach and Test of Predictive Validity on Treatment Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Benjamin O; McCrady, Barbara S

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to examine whether classification of couples in which one partner has an alcohol problem is similar to that reported in the general couples literature. Typologies of couples seeking alcohol behavioral couple therapy (ABCT) were developed via hierarchical cluster analysis using behavioral codes of couple interactions during their first ABCT session. Four couples types based on in-session behavior were established reliably, labeled avoider, validator, hostile, and ambivalent-detached. These couple types resembled couples types found in previous research. Couple type was associated with baseline relationship satisfaction, but not alcohol use. Results suggest heterogeneity in couples with alcohol problems presenting to treatment; further study is needed to investigate the function of alcohol within these different types. © 2015 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

  17. Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Tyng; Cooper, Hannah L F; Windle, Michael; Haardörfer, Regine; Crawford, Natalie D; Chen, Wei J; Chen, Chuan-Yu

    2016-12-01

    Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old) and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old) from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source) compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT) and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the relationship between district-level violent

  18. Chebyshev polynomial functions based locally recurrent neuro-fuzzy information system for prediction of financial and energy market data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Parida

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper Chebyshev polynomial functions based locally recurrent neuro-fuzzy information system is presented for the prediction and analysis of financial and electrical energy market data. The normally used TSK-type feedforward fuzzy neural network is unable to take the full advantage of the use of the linear fuzzy rule base in accurate input–output mapping and hence the consequent part of the rule base is made nonlinear using polynomial or arithmetic basis functions. Further the Chebyshev polynomial functions provide an expanded nonlinear transformation to the input space thereby increasing its dimension for capturing the nonlinearities and chaotic variations in financial or energy market data streams. Also the locally recurrent neuro-fuzzy information system (LRNFIS includes feedback loops both at the firing strength layer and the output layer to allow signal flow both in forward and backward directions, thereby making the LRNFIS mimic a dynamic system that provides fast convergence and accuracy in predicting time series fluctuations. Instead of using forward and backward least mean square (FBLMS learning algorithm, an improved Firefly-Harmony search (IFFHS learning algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the consequent part and feedback loop parameters for better stability and convergence. Several real world financial and energy market time series databases are used for performance validation of the proposed LRNFIS model.

  19. Rationalization of the pKa values of alcohols and thiols using atomic charge descriptors and its application to the prediction of amino acid pKa's.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugur, Ilke; Marion, Antoine; Parant, Stéphane; Jensen, Jan H; Monard, Gerald

    2014-08-25

    In a first step toward the development of an efficient and accurate protocol to estimate amino acids' pKa's in proteins, we present in this work how to reproduce the pKa's of alcohol and thiol based residues (namely tyrosine, serine, and cysteine) in aqueous solution from the knowledge of the experimental pKa's of phenols, alcohols, and thiols. Our protocol is based on the linear relationship between computed atomic charges of the anionic form of the molecules (being either phenolates, alkoxides, or thiolates) and their respective experimental pKa values. It is tested with different environment approaches (gas phase or continuum solvent-based approaches), with five distinct atomic charge models (Mulliken, Löwdin, NPA, Merz-Kollman, and CHelpG), and with nine different DFT functionals combined with 16 different basis sets. Moreover, the capability of semiempirical methods (AM1, RM1, PM3, and PM6) to also predict pKa's of thiols, phenols, and alcohols is analyzed. From our benchmarks, the best combination to reproduce experimental pKa's is to compute NPA atomic charge using the CPCM model at the B3LYP/3-21G and M062X/6-311G levels for alcohols (R(2) = 0.995) and thiols (R(2) = 0.986), respectively. The applicability of the suggested protocol is tested with tyrosine and cysteine amino acids, and precise pKa predictions are obtained. The stability of the amino acid pKa's with respect to geometrical changes is also tested by MM-MD and DFT-MD calculations. Considering its strong accuracy and its high computational efficiency, these pKa prediction calculations using atomic charges indicate a promising method for predicting amino acids' pKa in a protein environment.

  20. Cross-selling through database marketing : a mixed data factor analyzer for data augmentation and prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamakura, W.A.; Wedel, M.; de Rosa, F.; Mazzon, J.A.

    An important aspect of the new orientation on customer relationship marketing is the use of customer transaction databases for the cross-selling of new services and products. In this study, we propose a mixed data factor analyzer that combines information from a survey with data from the customer

  1. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

    2010-01-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  2. Imitation analysis : Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langley, D.J.; Pals, N.; Ortt, J.R.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of estimating the likelihood that a person with particular characteristics will imitate a particular new behaviour (i.e. the use of an innovation). This estimation can be used to provide a new form of forecast for the likely market demand

  3. Numeric model to predict the location of market demand and economic order quantity for retailers of supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fradinata, Edy; Marli Kesuma, Zurnila

    2018-05-01

    Polynomials and Spline regression are the numeric model where they used to obtain the performance of methods, distance relationship models for cement retailers in Banda Aceh, predicts the market area for retailers and the economic order quantity (EOQ). These numeric models have their difference accuracy for measuring the mean square error (MSE). The distance relationships between retailers are to identify the density of retailers in the town. The dataset is collected from the sales of cement retailer with a global positioning system (GPS). The sales dataset is plotted of its characteristic to obtain the goodness of fitted quadratic, cubic, and fourth polynomial methods. On the real sales dataset, polynomials are used the behavior relationship x-abscissa and y-ordinate to obtain the models. This research obtains some advantages such as; the four models from the methods are useful for predicting the market area for the retailer in the competitiveness, the comparison of the performance of the methods, the distance of the relationship between retailers, and at last the inventory policy based on economic order quantity. The results, the high-density retail relationship areas indicate that the growing population with the construction project. The spline is better than quadratic, cubic, and four polynomials in predicting the points indicating of small MSE. The inventory policy usages the periodic review policy type.

  4. Analysis of the development and prediction of the rate of unemployment in selected countries with market and transitive economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich Maca

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is aimed at the presentation of findings achieved in the study of the dynamics and trends of the rate of unemployment in selected countries with market and transitive economy in the reference period 1995–2001. In addition to the description of developmental trends of analysed time series by means of trend functions of linear, quadratic, exponential, logarithmic, power and inverse types their informative ability was verified as a starting base for the realization of point prediction of investigated events for 2005. With given 95% probability, minimum and maximum values are determined of the evaluated macroeconomic indicator for a defined time horizon.

  5. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  6. Using internet-based data sources for Crypto-Currency market prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Majerčič, Rok

    2015-01-01

    Forecasting volatility of traditional financial instruments is a well known and widely addressed problem. In the past, researches addressed it by using technical and fundamental analysis. The former looks at the past price movement of a currency or a stock (their market value and trading volumes), while the latter analyses outside information which can cause fluctuations in the currency or stock value (e.g.: introducing a new product in the company can increase the value of company’s stocks, ...

  7. Predicting Intra-Day and Day of the Week Anomalies in Turkish Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Eyuboglu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available According to Efficient Market Hypothesis, investors cannot gain abnormal returns. But various anomalies such as day or intra-day effect which are frequently observed at the stock markets provide some abnormal returns to investors. In the literature, many studies have found various anomalies for different national and international stock markets. But most of the applied studies used aggregate data in their econometric analysis. The question is whether the same anomalies exist in sub-indexes such as communication, technology, sports and services, etc. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there are the same anomalies such as intra-day effect and day of the week effect for an aggregated index and 23 sub-indexes of Borsa Istanbul. The data which used in this study is daily and covers the period of 2005-2015 for Turkey. Findings show that there is evidence for intra-day effect in all 24 indexes and day of the week effect in 2 sub-indexes.

  8. PREDICTED IMPACTS OF PENSION REFORM ON THE LABOUR MARKET IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogusława Urbaniak

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Pension system reforms increasing retirement age and accentuating citizens’ individual responsibility for the amounts of their future pensions have effects on labour markets. This article provides an analysis of factors determining the interest of employees over 50, and even those over 45, in continued employment, as well as of relevant compulsion and risk factors. Some of the discussion deals with the assumptions underlying the Polish pension system reform and its likely effect on longer working lives. A hypothesis is formulated that for older employees to continue employment, working conditions must improve, as the responses of both older employees and their employers reveal insufficient sensitivity to the need to adapt the conditions to the capabilities of an ageing workforce. Yet, even if the necessary measures are taken, occupational stratification leading to the emergence of age-segmented labour market with low-skilled, precarious, and part-time jobs is unavoidable. The article is partly based on the results of a survey that a University of Łódź team conducted for the project Diagnosis of the current situation of women and men aged 50+ on the labour market in Poland, funded by the European Social Fund.

  9. Thermodynamic models to predict gas-liquid solubilities in the methanol synthesis, the methanol-higher alcohol synthesis, and the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis via gas-slurry processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breman, B.B; Beenackers, A.A C M

    1996-01-01

    Various thermodynamic models were tested concerning their applicability to predict gas-liquid solubilities, relevant for synthesis gas conversion to methanol, higher alcohols, and hydrocarbons via gas-slurry processes. Without any parameter optimization the group contribution equation of state

  10. Usefulness of indirect alcohol biomarkers for predicting recidivism of drunk-driving among previously convicted drunk-driving offenders: results from the recidivism of alcohol-impaired driving (ROAD) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maenhout, Thomas M; Poll, Anneleen; Vermassen, Tijl; De Buyzere, Marc L; Delanghe, Joris R

    2014-01-01

    In several European countries, drivers under the influence (DUI), suspected of chronic alcohol abuse are referred for medical and psychological examination. This study (the ROAD study, or Recidivism Of Alcohol-impaired Driving) investigated the usefulness of indirect alcohol biomarkers for predicting drunk-driving recidivism in previously convicted drunk-driving offenders. The ROAD study is a prospective study (2009-13) that was performed on 517 randomly selected drivers in Belgium. They were convicted for drunk-driving for which their licence was confiscated. The initial post-arrest blood samples were collected and analysed for percentage carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (%CDT), transaminsase activities [alanine amino transferase (ALT), aspartate amino transferase (AST)], gamma-glutamyltransferase (γGT) and red cell mean corpuscular volume (MCV). The observation time for each driver was 3 years and dynamic. A logistic regression analysis revealed that ln(%CDT) (P drunk-driving. The ROAD index (which includes ln(%CDT), ln(γGT), -ln(ALT) and the sex of the driver) was calculated and had a significantly higher area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.71) than the individual biomarkers for drunk-driving recidivism. Drivers with a high risk of recidivating (ROAD index ≥ 25%; third tertile) could be distinguished from drivers with an intermediate risk (16% ≤ ROAD index drunk-driving. The association with gamma-glutamyltransferase, alanine amino transferase and the sex of the driver could have additional value for identifying drunk-drivers at intermediate risk of recidivism. Non-specific indirect alcohol markers, such as alanine amino transferase, gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate amino transferase and red cell mean corpuscular volume have minimal added value to % carbohydrate-deficient transferrin for distinguishing drunk drivers with a low or high risk of recidivism. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  11. Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

  12. Market Integration Predicts Human Gut Microbiome Attributes across a Gradient of Economic Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagaman, Keaton; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Liebert, Melissa A; Gildner, Theresa E; Urlacher, Samuel S; Madimenos, Felicia C; Guillemin, Karen; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S; Bohannan, Brendan J M

    2018-01-01

    Economic development is marked by dramatic increases in the incidence of microbiome-associated diseases, such as autoimmune diseases and metabolic syndromes, but the lifestyle changes that drive alterations in the human microbiome are not known. We measured market integration as a proxy for economically related lifestyle attributes, such as ownership of specific market goods that index degree of market integration and components of traditional and nontraditional (more modern) house structure and infrastructure, and profiled the fecal microbiomes of 213 participants from a contiguous, indigenous Ecuadorian population. Despite relatively modest differences in lifestyle across the population, greater economic development correlated with significantly lower within-host diversity, higher between-host dissimilarity, and a decrease in the relative abundance of the bacterium Prevotella . These microbiome shifts were most strongly associated with more modern housing, followed by reduced ownership of traditional subsistence lifestyle-associated items. IMPORTANCE Previous research has reported differences in the gut microbiome between populations residing in wealthy versus poorer countries, leading to the assertion that lifestyle changes associated with economic development promote changes in the gut microbiome that promote the proliferation of microbiome-associated diseases. However, a direct relationship between economic development and the gut microbiome has not previously been shown. We surveyed the gut microbiomes of a single indigenous population undergoing economic development and found significant associations between features of the gut microbiome and lifestyle changes associated with economic development. These findings suggest that even the earliest stages of economic development can drive changes in the gut microbiome, which may provide a warning sign for the development of microbiome-associated diseases.

  13. Exponential smoothing approaches for prediction in real-time electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2014-01-01

    The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant) expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous...... to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varying loss functions. With that objective in mind, forecasting approaches relying on simple models that accommodate the seasonal and dynamic nature of real-time prices are derived and analyzed. These are all based...

  14. Predicting the market penetration of the next generation of coal-fired technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guha, M.K.; McCall, G.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses what role clean coal-fired technology will have in future generating capacity based on availability and prices of coal and natural gas, the nuclear option, environmental regulations, limitations of current air pollution control technologies, and economics. The topics of the paper include the need for new electric generating capacity, why coal must remain a source of energy for generating electricity, technology effectiveness and market penetration analysis methodologies, coal-fired technology economic and technical assumptions, cost estimates, and high and low growth scenarios

  15. Quantifying reflexivity in financial markets: Toward a prediction of flash crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier

    2012-05-01

    We introduce a measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes is due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, which combines in a natural and parsimonious way exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, to the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1998 to 2010. We find that the level of endogeneity has increased significantly from 1998 to 2010, with only 70% in 1998 to less than 30% since 2007 of the price changes resulting from some revealed exogenous information. Analogous to nuclear plant safety measures concerned with avoiding “criticality,” our measure provides a direct quantification of the distance of the financial market from a critical state defined precisely as the limit of diverging trading activity in the absence of any external driving.

  16. Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

    2017-05-01

    The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

  17. Predictive factors for the severity of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C and moderate alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vădan, Roxana; Gheorghe, Liana; Becheanu, Gabriel; Iacob, Răzvan; Iacob, Speranţa; Gheorghe, Cristian

    2003-09-01

    Among the histological lesions seen in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), the presence of steatosis, bile duct lesions and lymphoid aggregates are characteristic. Recent reports suggest that steatosis is an independent risk factor for liver fibrosis in CHC. The aim of our study was to determine the relative contribution of steatosis and moderate alcohol consumption to the severity of liver fibrosis in patients infected with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus. We evaluated the patients with biopsy proven CHC and no or only moderate alcohol intake (<40 g/day). The demographical parameters of the study population, the indices of alcohol consumption: erythrocyte median corpuscular volume (MCV), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), the histological characteristics were noted and a statistical analysis was performed in order to determine the factors independently associated with severe fibrosis and with severe steatosis. From the 200 patients included in the study, 82 were males and 118 females, with a mean age of 47.75+/-10.42 years. At univariate analysis, advanced (grade 2, 3) fibrosis correlated with: the age at the time of biopsy, increased inflammatory activity (HAI), moderate/severe steatosis, alcohol intake, elevated GGT and MCV values. After multivariate logistic regression only age, HAI and steatosis were independently associated with advanced fibrosis stage. Regarding hepatic steatosis, from the factors found to correlate with severe steatosis at univariate analysis (alcohol intake, elevated GGT and MCV levels, severe fibrosis), after multivariate logistic regression only the elevated level of GGT was an independent prognostic factor for severe steatosis. Steatosis is an important risk factor for the severity of liver disease in CHC patients. Among patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection and moderate alcohol intake, those with serum levels of GGT over two times the normal value are at high risk for severe steatosis.

  18. Prediction of stock markets by the evolutionary mix-game model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fang; Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Gao, Jieping

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents the efforts of using the evolutionary mix-game model, which is a modified form of the agent-based mix-game model, to predict financial time series. Here, we have carried out three methods to improve the original mix-game model by adding the abilities of strategy evolution to agents, and then applying the new model referred to as the evolutionary mix-game model to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The results show that these modifications can improve the accuracy of prediction greatly when proper parameters are chosen.

  19. Cointegration and prediction analysis of market supply in the Dutch pig-farming industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, W.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we derive a restricted vector err or-correction model (RVECM) to predict the Dutch gross indigenous pig production (GIP). For this purpose, we model the long-run supply behaviour of the producers of piglets and fattened pigs. We supplemented Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure with

  20. Impact of Social Cognition on Alcohol Dependence Treatment Outcome: Poorer Facial Emotion Recognition Predicts Relapse/Dropout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, Claudia I; Derntl, Birgit; Osthaus, Friederike; Kemmler, Georg; Fleischhacker, W Wolfgang

    2017-12-01

    Despite growing evidence for neurobehavioral deficits in social cognition in alcohol use disorder (AUD), the clinical relevance remains unclear, and little is known about its impact on treatment outcome. This study prospectively investigated the impact of neurocognitive social abilities at treatment onset on treatment completion. Fifty-nine alcohol-dependent patients were assessed with measures of social cognition including 3 core components of empathy via paradigms measuring: (i) emotion recognition (the ability to recognize emotions via facial expression), (ii) emotional perspective taking, and (iii) affective responsiveness at the beginning of inpatient treatment for alcohol dependence. Subjective measures were also obtained, including estimates of task performance and a self-report measure of empathic abilities (Interpersonal Reactivity Index). According to treatment outcomes, patients were divided into a patient group with a regular treatment course (e.g., with planned discharge and without relapse during treatment) or an irregular treatment course (e.g., relapse and/or premature and unplanned termination of treatment, "dropout"). Compared with patients completing treatment in a regular fashion, patients with relapse and/or dropout of treatment had significantly poorer facial emotion recognition ability at treatment onset. Additional logistic regression analyses confirmed these results and identified poor emotion recognition performance as a significant predictor for relapse/dropout. Self-report (subjective) measures did not correspond with neurobehavioral social cognition measures, respectively objective task performance. Analyses of individual subtypes of facial emotions revealed poorer recognition particularly of disgust, anger, and no (neutral faces) emotion in patients with relapse/dropout. Social cognition in AUD is clinically relevant. Less successful treatment outcome was associated with poorer facial emotion recognition ability at the beginning of

  1. Media as a “Super Peer”: How Adolescents Interpret Media Messages Predicts their Perception of Alcohol and Tobacco Use Norms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmore, Kristen; Scull, Tracy M.; Kupersmidt, Janis B.

    2016-01-01

    Adolescents’ media environment offers information about who uses substances and what happens as a result—how youth interpret these messages likely determines their impact on normative beliefs about alcohol and tobacco use. The Message Interpretation Processing (MIP) theory predicts that substance use norms are influenced by cognitions associated with the interpretation of media messages. This cross-sectional study examined whether high school adolescents’ (n=817, 48% female, 64% white) media-related cognitions (i.e., similarity, realism, desirability, identification) were related to their perceptions of substance use norms. Results revealed that adolescents’ media-related cognitions explained a significant amount of variance in perceived social approval for and estimated prevalence of peer alcohol and tobacco use, above and beyond previous use and demographic covariates. Compared to prevalence norms, social approval norms were more closely related to adolescents’ media-related cognitions. Results suggest that critical thinking about media messages can inhibit normative perceptions that are likely to increase adolescents’ interest in alcohol and tobacco use. PMID:27837371

  2. Exponential Smoothing Approaches for Prediction in Real-Time Electricity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tryggvi Jónsson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varying loss functions. With that objective in mind, forecasting approaches relying on simple models that accommodate the seasonal and dynamic nature of real-time prices are derived and analyzed. These are all based on the well-known Holt–Winters model with a daily seasonal cycle, either in its conventional form or conditioned upon exogenous variables, such as: (i day-ahead price; (ii system load; and (iii wind power penetration. The superiority of the proposed approach over a number of common benchmarks is subsequently demonstrated through an empirical investigation for the Nord Pool, mimicking practical forecasting for a three-year period over 2008–2011.

  3. A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......We present a new dividend-adjusted blue chip index for the Danish stock market covering the period 1985-2002. In contrast to other indices on the Danish stock market, the index is calculated on a daily basis. In the first part of the paper a detailed description of the construction of the index...

  4. Public awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer in England in 2015: a population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny Buykx

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public knowledge of the association between alcohol and cancer is reported to be low. We aimed to provide up-to-date evidence for England regarding awareness of the link between alcohol and different cancers and to determine whether awareness differs by demographic characteristics, alcohol use, and geographic region. Methods A representative sample of 2100 adults completed an online survey in July 2015. Respondents were asked to identify which health outcomes, including specific cancers, may be caused by alcohol consumption. Logistic regressions explored whether demographic, alcohol use, and geographic characteristics predicted correctly identifying alcohol-related cancer risk. Results Unprompted, 12.9% of respondents identified cancer as a potential health outcome of alcohol consumption. This rose to 47% when prompted (compared to 95% for liver disease and 73% for heart disease. Knowledge of the link between alcohol and specific cancers varied between 18% (breast and 80% (liver. Respondents identified the following cancers as alcohol-related where no such evidence exists: bladder (54%, brain (32%, ovarian (17%. Significant predictors of awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer were being female, more highly educated, and living in North-East England. Conclusion There is generally low awareness of the relationship between alcohol consumption and cancer, particularly breast cancer. Greater awareness of the relationship between alcohol and breast cancer in North-East England, where a mass media campaign highlighted this relationship, suggests that population awareness can be influenced by social marketing.

  5. Public awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer in England in 2015: a population-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buykx, Penny; Li, Jessica; Gavens, Lucy; Hooper, Lucie; Lovatt, Melanie; Gomes de Matos, Elena; Meier, Petra; Holmes, John

    2016-11-30

    Public knowledge of the association between alcohol and cancer is reported to be low. We aimed to provide up-to-date evidence for England regarding awareness of the link between alcohol and different cancers and to determine whether awareness differs by demographic characteristics, alcohol use, and geographic region. A representative sample of 2100 adults completed an online survey in July 2015. Respondents were asked to identify which health outcomes, including specific cancers, may be caused by alcohol consumption. Logistic regressions explored whether demographic, alcohol use, and geographic characteristics predicted correctly identifying alcohol-related cancer risk. Unprompted, 12.9% of respondents identified cancer as a potential health outcome of alcohol consumption. This rose to 47% when prompted (compared to 95% for liver disease and 73% for heart disease). Knowledge of the link between alcohol and specific cancers varied between 18% (breast) and 80% (liver). Respondents identified the following cancers as alcohol-related where no such evidence exists: bladder (54%), brain (32%), ovarian (17%). Significant predictors of awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer were being female, more highly educated, and living in North-East England. There is generally low awareness of the relationship between alcohol consumption and cancer, particularly breast cancer. Greater awareness of the relationship between alcohol and breast cancer in North-East England, where a mass media campaign highlighted this relationship, suggests that population awareness can be influenced by social marketing.

  6. Ebulliometric determination and prediction of (vapor + liquid) equilibria for binary and ternary mixtures containing alcohols (C{sub 1}-C{sub 4}) and dimethyl carbonate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuda, Hiroyuki, E-mail: matsuda@chem.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Fukano, Makoto; Kikkawa, Shinichiro [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Constantinescu, Dana [Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, Technische Chemie, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany); Kurihara, Kiyofumi; Tochigi, Katsumi; Ochi, Kenji [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Gmehling, Juergen [Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, Technische Chemie, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany)

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: > The VLE behavior of systems containing dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was investigated. > VLE data for ternary and binary mixtures containing alcohol and DMC were measured. > Several activity coefficient models were used for data reduction or prediction. > Valley line, i.e., distillation boundary, was observed for the ternary mixture. > Residue curves were calculated to investigate composition profile for distillation. - Abstract: (Vapor + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) data for a ternary mixture, namely {l_brace}methanol + propan-1-ol + dimethyl carbonate (DMC){r_brace}, and four binary mixtures, namely an {l_brace}alcohol (C{sub 3} or C{sub 4}) + DMC{r_brace}, containing the binary constituent mixtures of the ternary mixture, were measured at p = (40.00 to 93.32) kPa using a modified Swietoslawski-type ebulliometer. The experimental data for the binary systems were correlated using the Wilson model. The Wilson model was also applied to the ternary system to predict the VLE behavior using parameters from the binary mixtures. The modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model was also tested for the predictions of the VLE behavior of the binary and ternary mixtures. In addition, the experimental VLE data for the ternary and constituent binary mixtures were correlated using the extended Redlich-Kister (ERK) model, which can completely represent the azeotropic points. For the ternary system, a comparison of the experimental and the predicted or correlated boiling points obtained using the Wilson and ERK models showed that the ERK model is more accurate. The valley line, i.e., the curve which divides the patterns of vapor-liquid tie lines, was found in the (methanol + propan-1-ol + DMC) system. This valley line could be represented by the ERK model. Finally, the composition profile for simple distillation of this ternary mixture was obtained by analysis of the residue curves from the estimated Wilson parameters of the constituent binary mixtures.

  7. Ebulliometric determination and prediction of (vapor + liquid) equilibria for binary and ternary mixtures containing alcohols (C1-C4) and dimethyl carbonate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Fukano, Makoto; Kikkawa, Shinichiro; Constantinescu, Dana; Kurihara, Kiyofumi; Tochigi, Katsumi; Ochi, Kenji; Gmehling, Juergen

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: → The VLE behavior of systems containing dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was investigated. → VLE data for ternary and binary mixtures containing alcohol and DMC were measured. → Several activity coefficient models were used for data reduction or prediction. → Valley line, i.e., distillation boundary, was observed for the ternary mixture. → Residue curves were calculated to investigate composition profile for distillation. - Abstract: (Vapor + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) data for a ternary mixture, namely {methanol + propan-1-ol + dimethyl carbonate (DMC)}, and four binary mixtures, namely an {alcohol (C 3 or C 4 ) + DMC}, containing the binary constituent mixtures of the ternary mixture, were measured at p = (40.00 to 93.32) kPa using a modified Swietoslawski-type ebulliometer. The experimental data for the binary systems were correlated using the Wilson model. The Wilson model was also applied to the ternary system to predict the VLE behavior using parameters from the binary mixtures. The modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model was also tested for the predictions of the VLE behavior of the binary and ternary mixtures. In addition, the experimental VLE data for the ternary and constituent binary mixtures were correlated using the extended Redlich-Kister (ERK) model, which can completely represent the azeotropic points. For the ternary system, a comparison of the experimental and the predicted or correlated boiling points obtained using the Wilson and ERK models showed that the ERK model is more accurate. The valley line, i.e., the curve which divides the patterns of vapor-liquid tie lines, was found in the (methanol + propan-1-ol + DMC) system. This valley line could be represented by the ERK model. Finally, the composition profile for simple distillation of this ternary mixture was obtained by analysis of the residue curves from the estimated Wilson parameters of the constituent binary mixtures.

  8. Rationalization of the pKa values of alcohols and thiols using atomic charge descriptors and its application to the prediction of amino acid pKa's

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugur, Ilke; Marion, Antoine; Parant, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    ) to also predict pKa's of thiols, phenols, and alcohols is analyzed. From our benchmarks, the best combination to reproduce experimental pKa's is to compute NPA atomic charge using the CPCM model at the B3LYP/3-21G and M062X/6-311G levels for alcohols (R(2) = 0.995) and thiols (R(2) = 0.986), respectively...

  9. The Alcohol Environment Protocol: A new tool for alcohol policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Morojele, Neo; Williams, Petal Petersen; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Gordon, Ross; Gray-Philip, Gaile; Viet Cuong, Pham; MacKintosh, Anne-Marie; Halliday, Sharon; Railton, Renee; Randerson, Steve; Parry, Charles D H

    2018-01-04

    To report data on the implementation of alcohol policies regarding availability and marketing, and drink driving, along with ratings of enforcement from two small high-income to three high-middle income countries, and one low-middle income country. This study uses the Alcohol Environment Protocol, an International Alcohol Control study research tool, which documents the alcohol policy environment by standardised collection of data from administrative sources, observational studies and interviews with key informants to allow for cross-country comparison and change over time. All countries showed adoption to varying extents of key effective policy approaches outlined in the World Health Organization Global Strategy to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol (2010). High-income countries were more likely to allocate resources to enforcement. However, where enforcement and implementation were high, policy on availability was fairly liberal. Key Informants judged alcohol to be very available in both high- and middle-income countries, reflecting liberal policy in the former and less implementation and enforcement and informal (unlicensed) sale of alcohol in the latter. Marketing was largely unrestricted in all countries and while drink-driving legislation was in place, it was less well enforced in middle-income countries. In countries with fewer resources, alcohol policies are less effective because of lack of implementation and enforcement and, in the case of marketing, lack of regulation. This has implications for the increase in consumption taking place as a result of the expanding distribution and marketing of commercial alcohol and consequent increases in alcohol-related harm. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  10. Are Remotely Sensed Trends in the Built Environment and Urban Vegetation Predictive of Changes in Metropolitan Housing Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endsley, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    In the midst of a global urbanization trend, residential neighborhoods are undergoing a variety of changes, including neighborhood turnover, the re-location of employment centers, and, recently, the increasing social and economic isolation of the suburbs. In the U.S., where residential lawns account for more area than any other irrigated crop (Polsky et al. 2014, in PNAS), coeval changes in residential populations, the built environment, and vegetation have serious implications for urban sustainability. To date, detailed studies of dynamic neighborhood changes have been hampered by the lack of fine time-series data on neighborhood composition. Most notably, the U.S. Census is conducted only once every decade leading to the likely inaccurate assumption of linear change between Census years. To the extent that human activities alter the built environment and urban ecology, can remotely sensed biophysical changes serve as a good proxy for neighborhood socio-economic changes? In this study, I apply time series data on spectral reflectance, spectral indices, and land-cover abundances from 15-to-25 years of Landsat data to fine-scale data on residential property transactions in two metropolitan areas with different regional economic and environmental contexts: Detroit and Los Angeles. The real estate record provides parcel-level, monthly data on sale prices and tax foreclosures; taken together, these provide a good description of the housing market and an acceptable proxy for neighborhood stability. By comparing lagged features from the remote sensing (RS) archive at different time scales in a non-parametric statistical learning algorithm, I identify which RS features best predict changes in the housing market and compare these associations between the two metropolitan areas and across multiple spatial and temporal scales along an urban to peri-urban gradient.

  11. Early Adolescent Exposure to Alcohol Advertising and Its Relationship to Underage Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Rebecca L.; Ellickson, Phyllis L.; McCaffrey, Daniel; Hambarsoomians, Katrin

    2009-01-01

    Purpose To determine whether early adolescents who are exposed to alcohol marketing are subsequently more likely to drink. Recent studies suggest that exposure to alcohol ads has a limited influence on drinking in mid-adolescence. Early adolescents may be more vulnerable to alcohol advertising effects. Methods Two in-school surveys of 1,786 South Dakota youth measured exposure to television beer advertisements, alcohol ads in magazines, in-store beer displays and beer concessions, radio-listening time, and ownership of beer promotional items during sixth grade, and drinking intentions and behavior at seventh grade. Multivariate regression equations predicted the two drinking outcomes using the advertising exposure variables and controlling for psychosocial factors and prior drinking. Results After adjusting for covariates, the joint effect of exposure to advertising from all six sources at Grade 6 was strongly predictive of Grade 7 drinking and Grade 7 intentions to drink. Youth in the 75th percentile of alcohol marketing exposure had a predicted probability of drinking that was 50% greater than that of youth in the 25th percentile. Conclusions Although causal effects are uncertain, policy makers should consider limiting a variety of marketing practices that could contribute to drinking in early adolescence. PMID:17531759

  12. Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sureda, Xisca; Carreño, Víctor; Espelt, Albert; Villalbí, Joan R; Pearce, Jamie; Franco, Manuel

    Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Building a Better Applicant Pool--A Case Study of the Use of Predictive Modeling and Market Segmentation to Build and Enroll Better Pools of Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herridge, Bart; Heil, Robert

    2003-01-01

    Predictive modeling has been a popular topic in higher education for the last few years. This case study shows an example of an effective use of modeling combined with market segmentation to strategically divide large, unmanageable prospect and inquiry pools and convert them into applicants, and eventually, enrolled students. (Contains 6 tables.)

  14. Market Power in Laboratory Emission Permit Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godby, R.

    2002-01-01

    Many proposals suggesting the use of markets to control pollution assume markets will be competitive. When markets do not exhibit competitive characteristics, however, should they still be expected to result in efficiency improvement relative to traditional approaches? This paper employs experimental economic methods to examine the effect of market structure on the use of marketable emissions permits. Results indicate that in a market with one dominant firm and a number of fringe firms, strategic manipulation occurs repeatedly in the laboratory as predicted by market power models, undermining the allocative and dynamic efficiency benefits such markets offer. When firms compete in a downstream product market dominated by the same single firm, market efficiency can actually be reduced with the implementation of permit markets. Final market efficiencies reflect initial endowments and are influenced by competitive conditions elsewhere in the economy, indicating that policy-makers should carefully consider whether markets are appropriate in such circumstances

  15. Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Perez, Richard; Sanmartin, Claudia; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Manson, Heather; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C

    2016-08-01

    Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death-the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)-was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867-0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868-0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used

  16. Monitoring Outdoor Alcohol Advertising in Developing Countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analyses on the placement, channels, size and content of outdoor alcohol advertising practices (N=807) in relation to existing regulations are given. For example, in Gambia, the country with the most stringent alcohol marketing regulations of all countries studied, outdoor alcohol advertisements are on average smaller and ...

  17. Black Alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Thomas D.; Wright, Roosevelt

    1988-01-01

    Examines some aspects of the problem of alcoholism among Blacks, asserting that Black alcoholism can best be considered in an ecological, environmental, sociocultural, and public health context. Notes need for further research on alcoholism among Blacks and for action to reduce the problem of Black alcoholism. (NB)

  18. Current market of industrial bio-products and biofuels, and predictable evolutions by 2015/2030. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    The main objectives of this study were to describe the current status of the energetic and industrial bio-product markets (biofuels, bio-lubricants, biomaterials, papers, cosmetics, and so on), to identify and analyze the evolution perspectives of these new markets on a long and medium term, to define scenarios of evolution for different sectors (agro-industry, energy, organic chemistry), to identify the most promising new markets, and to select the priority agro-industrial sectors

  19. Exposure to alcohol advertisements and teenage alcohol-related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenard, Jerry L; Dent, Clyde W; Stacy, Alan W

    2013-02-01

    This study used prospective data to test the hypothesis that exposure to alcohol advertising contributes to an increase in underage drinking and that an increase in underage drinking then leads to problems associated with drinking alcohol. A total of 3890 students were surveyed once per year across 4 years from the 7th through the 10th grades. Assessments included several measures of exposure to alcohol advertising, alcohol use, problems related to alcohol use, and a range of covariates, such as age, drinking by peers, drinking by close adults, playing sports, general TV watching, acculturation, parents' jobs, and parents' education. Structural equation modeling of alcohol consumption showed that exposure to alcohol ads and/or liking of those ads in seventh grade were predictive of the latent growth factors for alcohol use (past 30 days and past 6 months) after controlling for covariates. In addition, there was a significant total effect for boys and a significant mediated effect for girls of exposure to alcohol ads and liking of those ads in 7th grade through latent growth factors for alcohol use on alcohol-related problems in 10th grade. Younger adolescents appear to be susceptible to the persuasive messages contained in alcohol commercials broadcast on TV, which sometimes results in a positive affective reaction to the ads. Alcohol ad exposure and the affective reaction to those ads influence some youth to drink more and experience drinking-related problems later in adolescence.

  20. Exposure to Alcohol Advertisements and Teenage Alcohol-Related Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dent, Clyde W.; Stacy, Alan W.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study used prospective data to test the hypothesis that exposure to alcohol advertising contributes to an increase in underage drinking and that an increase in underage drinking then leads to problems associated with drinking alcohol. METHODS: A total of 3890 students were surveyed once per year across 4 years from the 7th through the 10th grades. Assessments included several measures of exposure to alcohol advertising, alcohol use, problems related to alcohol use, and a range of covariates, such as age, drinking by peers, drinking by close adults, playing sports, general TV watching, acculturation, parents’ jobs, and parents’ education. RESULTS: Structural equation modeling of alcohol consumption showed that exposure to alcohol ads and/or liking of those ads in seventh grade were predictive of the latent growth factors for alcohol use (past 30 days and past 6 months) after controlling for covariates. In addition, there was a significant total effect for boys and a significant mediated effect for girls of exposure to alcohol ads and liking of those ads in 7th grade through latent growth factors for alcohol use on alcohol-related problems in 10th grade. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adolescents appear to be susceptible to the persuasive messages contained in alcohol commercials broadcast on TV, which sometimes results in a positive affective reaction to the ads. Alcohol ad exposure and the affective reaction to those ads influence some youth to drink more and experience drinking-related problems later in adolescence. PMID:23359585

  1. Exploring College Students' Use of General and Alcohol-Related Social Media and Their Associations with Alcohol-Related Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W.; Pinkleton, Bruce E.; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors.…

  2. Fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sviklāne, Laura; Olmane, Evija; Dzērve, Zane; Kupčs, Kārlis; Pīrāgs, Valdis; Sokolovska, Jeļizaveta

    2018-01-01

    Little is known about the diagnostic value of hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fatty liver index (FLI), as well as their link to metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes mellitus. We have screened the effectiveness of FLI and HSI in an observational pilot study of 40 patients with type 1 diabetes. FLI and HSI were calculated for 201 patients with type 1 diabetes. Forty patients with FLI/HSI values corresponding to different risk of liver steatosis were invited for liver magnetic resonance study. In-phase/opposed-phase technique of magnetic resonance was used. Accuracy of indices was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Twelve (30.0%) patients had liver steatosis. For FLI, sensitivity was 90%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio, 3.46; negative likelihood ratio, 0.14; positive predictive value, 0.64; and negative predictive value, 0.93. For HSI, sensitivity was 86%; specificity, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 1.95; negative likelihood ratio, 0.21; positive predictive value, 0.50; and negative predictive value, 0.92. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FLI was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [0.72; 0.99]); for HSI 0.75 [0.58; 0.91]. Liver fat correlated with liver enzymes, waist circumference, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. FLI correlated with C-reactive protein, liver enzymes, and blood pressure. HSI correlated with waist circumference and C-reactive protein. FLI ≥ 60 and HSI ≥ 36 were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome and nephropathy. The tested indices, especially FLI, can serve as surrogate markers for liver fat content and metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  3. Deoxyribonucleic acid telomere length shortening can predict the incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Fan; Li, Zeng-Yi; Lv, Ke; Zhou, Mei-Cen; Dong, Ya-Xiu; Sun, Qi; Li, Yu-Xiu

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the effect of telomere shortening and other predictive factors of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in a 6-year prospective cohort study. A total of 70 type 2 diabetes mellitus (mean age 57.8 ± 6.7 years) patients without NAFLD were included in the study, and 64 of them were successfully followed up 6 years later, excluding four cases with significant alcohol consumption. NAFLD was diagnosed by the hepatorenal ratio obtained by a quantitative ultrasound method using NIH image analysis software. The 39 individuals that developed NAFLD were allocated to group A, and the 21 individuals that did not develop NAFLD were allocated to group B. Fluorescent real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to measure telomere length. There was no significant difference between the two groups in baseline telomere length; however, at the end of the 6th year, telomere length had become shorter in group A compared with group B. There were significant differences between these two groups in baseline body mass index, waistline, systolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin and fasting C-peptide level. In addition, the estimated indices of baseline insulin resistance increased in group A. Fasting insulin level, body mass index, systolic blood pressure at baseline and the shortening of telomere length were independent risk factors of NAFLD in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. Telomere length became shorter in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients who developed NAFLD over the course of 6 years. Type 2 diabetes mellitus patients who developed NAFLD had more serious insulin resistance compared with those who did not develop NAFLD a long time ago. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  4. Social-geographic approaches to application of economic-mathematical modeling in predicting the place of Ukrainian farming economies in food market commoditization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Rudenko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Social-geographic analysis of farmery with application of economic-mathematical modeling allowed for prediction of farming economies’ role in food market commoditization. The equation of potential demand was suggested. Actual consumption and its recommended rates with respect to meat and meat products, milk and milk products, eggs, fish and fish products, bread and cereal products, potatoes, vegetables, fruits and berries, etc, were compared. Cartographic model of Ukrainian domestic food market’s potential capacity (within good-money relations was developed. The low level of purchasing power, especially in rural population, makes a high percentage of foodstuffs be beyond the goods-money relations. In rural areas, they (inclusive of farmers produce and consume a significant portion of foodstuffs that escaped the goods-money relations, or such foodstuffs were given to them by the relatives. We regard that in the process of assessment of the capacity of domestic food market, this share of products should also be taken into account. The assessment also necessitates consideration of the number of urban and rural population in Ukrainian regions; manufacturing of certain types of agricultural production; needs in this or that type of product as prescribed by minimal and rational consumption rates. When predicting, with the use of economic-mathematical modeling, the places of farming economies in commoditization of food market, it is reasonable to apply the parameters of time series of the number of farming economies and the areas of lands used by them with consideration of the dynamics of population number and the level of its (population self-provision with agricultural production. Application of predictive linear models shows that the share of production manufactured by farming economies will be most essential before 2020 on the market of potatoes and vegetables (reaching 15 %. Despite the predicted double increase in animal production, its share

  5. What do Dutch college students talk about when they talk about alcohol?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, H.; de Bruijn, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: Interpersonal communication about alcohol influences alcohol consumption, yet evidence is scarce about the content and valence of alcohol-related conversations and how these concepts predict alcohol consumption. Methods: By employing a correlational design among Dutch undergraduate

  6. Efficacy of the Omega-3 Index in predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in overweight and obese adults: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Helen M; O'Connor, Helen T; Keating, Shelley E; Cohn, Jeffrey S; Garg, Manohar L; Caterson, Ian D; George, Jacob; Johnson, Nathan A

    2015-09-14

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an independent predictor of CVD in otherwise healthy individuals. Low n-3 PUFA intake has been associated with the presence of NAFLD; however, the relationship between a biomarker of n-3 status - the Omega-3 Index - and liver fat is yet to be elucidated. A total of eighty overweight adults (fifty-six men) completed the anthropometric and biochemical measurements, including the Omega-3 Index, and underwent proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy assessment of liver fat. Bivariate correlations and multiple regression analyses were performed with reference to prediction of liver fat percentage. The mean Omega-3 Index was high in both NAFLD (intrahepatic lipid concentration≥5·5 %) and non-NAFLD groups. The Omega-3 Index, BMI, waist circumference, glucose, insulin, TAG, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were positively correlated, and HDL and erythrocyte n-6:n-3 ratio negatively correlated with liver fat concentration. Regression analysis found that simple anthropometric and demographic variables (waist, age) accounted for 31 % of the variance in liver fat and the addition of traditional cardiometabolic blood markers (TAG, HDL, hsCRP and ALT) increased the predictive power to 43 %. The addition of the novel erythrocyte fatty acid variable (Omega-3 Index) to the model only accounted for a further 3 % of the variance (P=0·049). In conclusion, the Omega-3 Index was associated with liver fat concentration but did not improve the overall capacity of demographic, anthropometric and blood markers to predict NAFLD.

  7. Economic issues and public alcohol abuse prevention policies in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spach, Miléna

    2016-10-19

    Objective: To analyse the impact of the alcohol market on the implementation of strong-willed public alcohol abuse prevention policies based on a critical review of the literature. Method: Documentary research and analysis of the alcohol market economic data were performed. An overview of public alcohol abuse prevention policies was conducted from a historical perspective by distinguishing drunkenness control policies, protection of vulnerable populations, and the fight against drink driving and drinking in the workplace. Results: Public alcohol abuse prevention policies are primarily designed to reduce the harmful consequences of alcohol occurring as a result of a drinking episode (motor vehicle accident, highway accidents, etc.), while neglecting the long-term consequences (cancer, cirrhosis, etc.). Moreover, while taxation is one of the major public health tools used to reduce the costs of alcohol-related damage on society, the State exercises legislative and tax protection for alcoholic beverages produced in France. In particular, wine benefits from a lower tax rate than other stronger forms of alcohol (spirits, liquors, etc.). The economic weight of the alcohol market can provide an explanation for these public alcohol abuse prevention policies. Conclusion: In view of the mortality caused by alcohol abuse, France must implement a proactive public policy. An alcohol taxation policy based on the alcohol content, a minimum unit pricing for alcohol, or higher taxes on alcohol are public policies that could be considered in order to reduce alcohol-related mortality.

  8. Nucleotide sequence of Phaseolus vulgaris L. alcohol dehydrogenase encoding cDNA and three-dimensional structure prediction of the deduced protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amelia, Kassim; Khor, Chin Yin; Shah, Farida Habib; Bhore, Subhash J

    2015-01-01

    Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are widely consumed as a source of proteins and natural products. However, its yield needs to be increased. In line with the agenda of Phaseomics (an international consortium), work of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) generation from bean pods was initiated. Altogether, 5972 ESTs have been isolated. Alcohol dehydrogenase (AD) encoding gene cDNA was a noticeable transcript among the generated ESTs. This AD is an important enzyme; therefore, to understand more about it this study was undertaken. The objective of this study was to elucidate P. vulgaris L. AD (PvAD) gene cDNA sequence and to predict the three-dimensional (3D) structure of deduced protein. positive and negative strands of the PvAD cDNA clone were sequenced using M13 forward and M13 reverse primers to elucidate the nucleotide sequence. Deduced PvAD cDNA and protein sequence was analyzed for their basic features using online bioinformatics tools. Sequence comparison was carried out using bl2seq program, and tree-view program was used to construct a phylogenetic tree. The secondary structures and 3D structure of PvAD protein were predicted by using the PHYRE automatic fold recognition server. The sequencing results analysis showed that PvAD cDNA is 1294 bp in length. It's open reading frame encodes for a protein that contains 371 amino acids. Deduced protein sequence analysis showed the presence of putative substrate binding, catalytic Zn binding, and NAD binding sites. Results indicate that the predicted 3D structure of PvAD protein is analogous to the experimentally determined crystal structure of s-nitrosoglutathione reductase from an Arabidopsis species. The 1294 bp long PvAD cDNA encodes for 371 amino acid long protein that contains conserved domains required for biological functions of AD. The predicted deduced PvAD protein's 3D structure reflects the analogy with the crystal structure of Arabidopsis thaliana s-nitrosoglutathione reductase. Further study is required

  9. The global alcohol industry: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H

    2009-02-01

    To describe the globalized sector of the alcoholic beverage industry, including its size, principal actors and activities. Market research firms and business journalism are the primary sources for information about the global alcohol industry, and are used to profile the size and membership of the three main industry sectors of beer, distilled spirits and wine. Branded alcoholic beverages are approximately 38% of recorded alcohol consumption world-wide. Producers of these beverages tend to be large multi-national corporations reliant on marketing for their survival. Marketing activities include traditional advertising as well as numerous other activities, such as new product development, product placement and the creation and promotion of social responsibility programs, messages and organizations. The global alcohol industry is highly concentrated and innovative. There is relatively little public health research evaluating the impact of its many marketing activities.

  10. Over-expression of the miRNA cluster at chromosome 14q32 in the alcoholic brain correlates with suppression of predicted target mRNA required for oligodendrocyte proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzardo, A M; Gunewardena, S; Butler, M G

    2013-09-10

    We examined miRNA expression from RNA isolated from the frontal cortex (Broadman area 9) of 9 alcoholics (6 males, 3 females, mean age 48 years) and 9 matched controls using both the Affymetrix GeneChip miRNA 2.0 and Human Exon 1.0 ST Arrays to further characterize genetic influences in alcoholism and the effects of alcohol consumption on predicted target mRNA expression. A total of 12 human miRNAs were significantly up-regulated in alcohol dependent subjects (fold change≥1.5, false discovery rate (FDR)≤0.3; p<0.05) compared with controls including a cluster of 4 miRNAs (e.g., miR-377, miR-379) from the maternally expressed 14q32 chromosome region. The status of the up-regulated miRNAs was supported using the high-throughput method of exon microarrays showing decreased predicted mRNA gene target expression as anticipated from the same RNA aliquot. Predicted mRNA targets were involved in cellular adhesion (e.g., THBS2), tissue differentiation (e.g., CHN2), neuronal migration (e.g., NDE1), myelination (e.g., UGT8, CNP) and oligodendrocyte proliferation (e.g., ENPP2, SEMA4D1). Our data support an association of alcoholism with up-regulation of a cluster of miRNAs located in the genomic imprinted domain on chromosome 14q32 with their predicted gene targets involved with oligodendrocyte growth, differentiation and signaling. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Alcohol Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Trkovská, Jana

    2017-01-01

    The thesis concerns itself with alcohol advertising. Alcohol is the most widespread habit-forming substance, yet its consumption is permitted in most countries all around the world, possibly restricted by the age of consumers only. Drinking alcohol cannot be either regulated or prohibited today. It has become commonplace for the majority of our lives. Being aware of its apparent risks, however, there is an effort to regulate at least alcohol advertising. The main objective of this work was to...

  12. The potential of a human rights approach for accelerating the implementation of comprehensive restrictions on the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granheim, Sabrina Ionata; Vandevijvere, Stefanie; Torheim, Liv Elin

    2018-01-05

    Overweight and obesity in children is rising at the global level, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Among the causes for this increase is the marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products, which affects children's food preferences, purchasing requests and consumption patterns. The need to address harmful marketing to children has been recognized at the World Health Organization, with Member States having agreed in 2010 to implement a set of recommendations to restrict such practices. Concurrently, there is an increasing understanding of unhealthy food and malnutrition as human rights concerns. This paper explores the potential of existing legally and non-legally binding human rights instruments for accelerating the implementation of comprehensive restrictions to reduce harmful marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages to children. Four relevant themes were identified in existing human rights instruments: (i) the best interest of the child should be considered above all other interests; (ii) the rights to health and adequate food cannot be realized without supportive healthy environments; (iii) children should be protected from economic exploitation; and (iv) the persuasive marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products is explicitly recognized as a threat to the rights to food and health. In conclusion, existing human rights instruments could be harnessed to advance public health measures to restrict the marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products to children. Policy-makers and advocates should draw from these instruments and refer to State's obligations within international and domestic human rights law to strengthen their efforts to restrict harmful marketing practices to children. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Thought suppression, impaired regulation of urges, and Addiction-Stroop predict affect-modulated cue-reactivity among alcohol dependent adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, Eric L; Carter, Kristin; Ropes, Katie; Howard, Matthew O

    2012-01-01

    Abstinent alcohol dependent individuals commonly employ thought suppression to cope with stress and intrusive cognitions about alcohol. This strategy may inadvertently bias attention towards alcohol-related stimuli while depleting neurocognitive resources needed to regulate urges, manifested as decreased heart rate variability (HRV) responsivity to alcohol cues. The present study tested the hypothesis that trait and state thought suppression, impaired regulation of urges, and alcohol attentional bias as measured by the Addiction-Stroop would have significant effects on the HRV responsivity of 58 adults in residential treatment for alcohol dependence (mean age=39.6 ± 9.4, 81% female) who participated in an affect-modulated cue-reactivity protocol. Regression analyses controlling for age, level of pre-treatment alcohol consumption, and baseline HRV indicated that higher levels of trait thought suppression, impaired regulation of alcohol urges, and attentional fixation on alcohol cues were associated with lower HRV responsivity during stress-primed alcohol cue-exposure. Moreover, there was a significant state × trait suppression interaction on HRV cue-responsivity, such that alcohol dependent persons reporting high levels of state and trait suppression exhibited less HRV during cue-exposure than persons reporting low levels of state and trait suppression. Results suggest that chronic thought suppression taxes regulatory resources reflected in reduced HRV responsivity, an effect that is particularly evident when high trait suppressors engage in intensive suppression of drinking-related thoughts under conditions of stress. Treatment approaches that offer effective alternatives to the maladaptive strategy of suppressing alcohol urges may be crucial for relapse prevention. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Interactions between Internalizing Symptoms and Urgency in the Prediction of Alcohol Use and Expectancies among Low-Income, Minority Early Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi R. Marmorstein

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined whether urgency, a disposition to rash action under conditions of strong emotion, moderates associations between internalizing symptoms and alcohol use and related expectancies. Data from the Camden Youth Development Study, a longitudinal, community-based study of early adolescents ( N = 144, mean age at intake = 11.9 years; 65% Hispanic, 30% African-American; 50% male, were used. Self-report questionnaire measures of depressive symptoms, social and generalized anxiety symptoms, urgency, alcohol use, and alcohol expectancies were used. Mixed models were used to examine the effects of internalizing symptoms, urgency, and their interaction on alcohol use and expectancy trajectories over time. Depressive symptoms interacted with urgency such that youth with high levels of both tended to have elevated levels of global positive alcohol expectancies. Social anxiety symptoms interacted with urgency to be associated with increasing levels of social behavior alcohol expectancies such that youth with high levels of both tended to experience particular increases in these expectancies over time. Generalized anxiety was not found to be associated with alcohol-related constructs. Therefore, high levels of urgency combine with depressive and social anxiety symptoms to be associated with particularly increased risk for alcohol expectancies that are associated with later alcohol use and problems, indicating particular risk for youth with these combinations of personality traits and psychopathology symptoms.

  15. Alcoholic fermentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colin, P

    1961-01-04

    The addition of C/sub 6-10/ alcohols to the fermenting sugar solutions, increased the yield of alcohol by 1.5 to 5%. The best additives were (additive, % additive in sugar solution, % increased in yield of alcohol): hexanol, 0.03, 2.5; heptanol, 0.05, 3; nonanol, 0.01, 3; 2-ethylbutanol, 0.05, 4; 2-ethylhexanol, 0.05, 5; a mixture of C/sub 7-9/ alcohols from the Oxo synthesis, 0.05, 4.5, and a mixture of C/sub 10/ alcohols 0.05, 3.

  16. Restricting the marketing of foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children in South Africa: are all nutrient profiling models the same?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, Mariaan; Wright, Hattie; Wentzel-Viljoen, Edelweiss

    2016-12-01

    The WHO has called for governments to improve children's food environment by implementing restrictions on the marketing of 'unhealthy' foods to children. Nutrient profiling (NP) models are used to define 'unhealthy' foods and support child-directed food marketing regulations. The aim of the present study was to assess the suitability of the South African NP model (SANPM), developed and validated for health claim regulations, for child-directed food marketing regulations. The SANPM was compared with four NP models specifically developed for such regulations. A representative list of 197 foods was compiled by including all foods advertised on South African free-to-air television channels in 2014 and foods commonly consumed by South African children. The nutritional information of the foods was sourced from food packaging, company websites and a food composition table. Each individual food was classified by each of the five NP models. The percentage of foods that would be allowed according to the different NP models ranged from 6 to 45 %; the models also varied considerably with regard to the type of foods allowed for marketing to children. The majority of the pairwise comparisons between the NP models yielded κ statistics >0·4, indicating a moderate agreement between the models. An almost perfect pairwise agreement (κ=0·948) existed between the SANPM and the UK Food Standards Agency model (United Kingdom Office of Communication nutrient profiling model), a model extensively tested and validated for such regulations. The SANPM is considered appropriate for child-directed food marketing regulations in South Africa.

  17. Trends in Internet Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Panchanathan, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

  18. The World Trade Organization and the new opportunities in the international market for Brazilian sugar and alcohol sector; A Organizacao Mundial do Comercio e as novas oportunidades do mercado internacional para o setor sucroalcooleiro brasileiro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotoni, Marili Arruda [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energetico (NIPE); Faculdade Municipal Prof. Franco Montoro, Mogi Guacu SP (Brazil); Furtado, Andre Tosi [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias

    2004-07-01

    This main objective of this work is to present the obstacles to the Brazilian participation in the international ethanol and sugar market, specially in the European Union. Therefore it is emphasized the main reasons which conduct Brazil to discuss in the International Trade Organization the production quota system impositions and the heavy subsidy exportation used in the European Union. In despite of improving the negotiation arguments, it has been felt at the most recent International Trade Organization meeting that the Brazilian interests has got to confront international barriers to punish the Brazilian sugar with an high tax importation as in the European Union. Due to those difficulties, the possibility of opening a larger ethanol market, mainly in those countries which wish to reduce pollution emission, mixing anhydrous alcohol to gasoline appeared as a good alter