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Sample records for alcohol marketing predicts

  1. Receptivity to alcohol marketing predicts initiation of alcohol use.

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    Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C; Schleicher, Nina C; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2008-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Data were obtained from in-class surveys of sixth, seventh, and eighth graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n = 1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity), and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents' receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors' marketing tactics.

  2. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Tanski, Susanne E; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D

    2016-02-01

    Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  3. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C.; Tanski, Susanne E.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. METHODS A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. RESULTS At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. CONCLUSIONS Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. PMID:26738886

  4. Brain reactivity to alcohol and cannabis marketing during sobriety and intoxication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B; Theunissen, Eef L; Kuypers, Kim P C; Evers, Elisabeth A; Stiers, Peter; Toennes, Stefan W; Witteman, Jurriaan; van Dalen, Wim; Ramaekers, Johannes G

    2017-05-01

    Drugs of abuse stimulate striatal dopamine release and activate reward pathways. This study examined the impact of alcohol and cannabis marketing on the reward circuit in alcohol and cannabis users while sober and intoxicated. It was predicted that alcohol and cannabis marketing would increase striatal activation when sober and that reward sensitivity would be less during alcohol and cannabis intoxication. Heavy alcohol (n = 20) and regular cannabis users (n = 21) participated in a mixed factorial study involving administration of alcohol and placebo in the alcohol group and cannabis and placebo in the cannabis group. Non-drug users (n = 20) served as between group reference. Brain activation after exposure to alcohol and cannabis marketing movies was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging and compared between groups while sober and compared with placebo while intoxicated. Implicit alcohol and cannabis cognitions were assessed by means of a single-category implicit association test. Alcohol and cannabis marketing significantly increased striatal BOLD activation across all groups while sober. Striatal activation however decreased during intoxication with alcohol and cannabis. Implicit associations with cannabis marketing cues were significantly more positive in alcohol and cannabis users as compared with non-drug using controls. Public advertising of alcohol or cannabis use elicits striatal activation in the brain's reward circuit. Reduction of marketing would reduce brain exposure to reward cues that motivate substance use. Conversely, elevated dopamine levels protect against the reinforcing potential of marketing. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  5. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  6. Alcohol marketing receptivity, marketing-specific cognitions, and underage binge drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E; Engels, Rutger C M E; Sargent, James D

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. This study describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1,734 U.S. 15- to 20-year-old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including TV time, Internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30-day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies, and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for sociodemographics, personality, and peer drinking. Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30-day binge drinking. Correlations between mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 to 0.47), and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand to drink, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on

  7. Assessing restrictiveness of national alcohol marketing policies.

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    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2014-01-01

    To develop an approach for monitoring national alcohol marketing policies globally, an area of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Alcohol Strategy. Data on restrictiveness of alcohol marketing policies came from the 2002 and 2008 WHO Global Surveys on Alcohol and Health. We included four scales in a sensitivity analysis to determine optimal weights to score countries on their marketing policies and applied the selected scale to assess national marketing policy restrictiveness. Nearly, 36% of countries had no marketing restrictions. The overall restrictiveness levels were not significantly different between 2002 and 2008. The number of countries with strict marketing regulations did not differ across years. This method of monitoring alcohol marketing restrictiveness helps track progress towards implementing WHO'S Global Alcohol Strategy. Findings indicate a consistent lack of restrictive policies over time, making this a priority area for national and global action. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  8. Alcohol Marketing Receptivity, Marketing-specific Cognitions and Underage Binge Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Sargent, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. Methods This paper describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1734 U.S. 15–20 year old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including television time, internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30 day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for socio-demographics, personality and peer drinking. Results Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30 day binge drinking. Correlations among mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 – 0.47) and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Conclusions Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. PMID:23256927

  9. Misuse of social media marketing by alcohol companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakirhusain A Shaikh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Epidemiological transition in the form of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs now becoming the main cause of mortality and morbidity is very much evident even in developing countries like India. Alcohol is an important risk factor for NCD. The use of alcohol is increasing especially in young people and women. This increased use can be attributed to aggressive and innovative marketing by alcohol, in spite of and due to restrictions on its marketing. Social media, in recent times, has been misused by alcohol companies for marketing their products legally, due to legal loophole. The present study examined the reach of alcohol companies on social media and the marketing strategies used by them. Design, Settings, Participants: Facebook, Twitter and YouTube were explored for accounts and content by alcohol companies for marketing their product. Policies of social media sites pertaining to alcohol marketing were also studied. Measurements: Alcohol marketing was measured in terms of content posted by alcohol companies, use of direct or surrogate advertisement and engagement with users. Findings: Alcohol companies have been conveniently using social media to target young urban population with direct and surrogate advertisements of their products. Current social media policies and laws are ineffective in controlling it. Conclusions: Amendment of laws pertaining to alcohol marketing to include social media also in its ambit is necessary. Social media sites should revise their policies to prevent alcohol marketing and promotion especially to underaged users.

  10. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; van Dalen, Wim

    2016-10-01

    This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for non-alcohol branded media exposure. Prospective observational study (11-12- and 14-17-month intervals), using a three-wave autoregressive cross-lagged model. School-based sample in 181 state-funded schools in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland. A total of 9075 eligible respondents participated in the survey (mean age 14 years, 49.5% male. Adolescents reported their frequency of past-month drinking and binge drinking. Alcohol marketing exposure was measured by a latent variable with 13 items measuring exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising, alcohol sport sponsorship, music event/festival sponsorship, ownership alcohol-branded promotional items, reception of free samples and exposure to price offers. Confounders were age, gender, education, country, internet use, exposure to non-alcohol sponsored football championships and television programmes without alcohol commercials. The analyses showed one-directional long-term effects of alcohol marketing exposure on drinking (exposure T1 on drinking T2: β = 0.420 (0.058), P  0.05). Similar results were found in the binge drinking model (exposure T1 on binge T2: β = 0.409 (0.054), P  0.05). There appears to be a one-way effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' alcohol use over time, which cannot be explained by either previous drinking or exposure to non-alcohol-branded marketing. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  11. Who 'likes' alcohol? Young Australians' engagement with alcohol marketing via social media and related alcohol consumption patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrotte, Elise R; Dietze, Paul M; Wright, Cassandra J; Lim, Megan S

    2016-10-01

    To describe patterns of 'liking' alcohol marketing social media pages, and determine related alcohol consumption patterns among young Australians. Participants were 1,001 Australians aged 15-29 years who completed a cross-sectional online survey. Logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used. A quarter (249/1001, 24.9%) liked at least one of the alcohol marketing social media pages, most commonly brands of spirits, cider and alcohol retailers. Underage participants were as likely as older participants to report liking these pages. Alcohol marketing social media use was significantly and independently associated with male gender, living outside a major city, ever using illegal drugs and early age of first alcohol consumption (all pmarketing social media use (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8, p=marketing pages is common regardless of age, and associated with riskier alcohol consumption, among young Australians. There is a need to develop strategies to reduce the exposure to, and potential impact of, alcohol marketing social media pages on young Australians, and ensure these pages are neither accessible to nor targeting underage social media users. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

  12. Alcohol marketing and youth alcohol consumption: a systematic review of longitudinal studies published since 2008.

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    Jernigan, David; Noel, Jonathan; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Lobstein, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Youth alcohol consumption is a major global public health concern. Previous reviews have concluded that exposure to alcohol marketing was associated with earlier drinking initiation and higher alcohol consumption among youth. This review examined longitudinal studies published since those earlier reviews. Peer-reviewed papers were identified in medical, scientific and social science databases, supplemented by examination of reference lists. Non-peer-reviewed papers were included if they were published by organizations deemed to be authoritative, were fully referenced and contained primary data not available elsewhere. Papers were restricted to those that included measures of marketing exposure and alcohol consumption for at least 500 underage people. Multiple authors reviewed studies for inclusion and assessed their quality using the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Quality Assessment Tool for Observation Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Twelve studies (ranging in duration from 9 months to 8 years), following nine unique cohorts not reported on previously involving 35 219 participants from Europe, Asia and North America, met inclusion criteria. All 12 found evidence of a positive association between level of marketing exposure and level of youth alcohol consumption. Some found significant associations between youth exposure to alcohol marketing and initiation of alcohol use (odds ratios ranging from 1.00 to 1.69), and there were clear associations between exposure and subsequent binge or hazardous drinking (odds ratios ranging from 1.38 to 2.15). Mediators included marketing receptivity, brand recognition and alcohol expectancies. Levels of marketing exposure among younger adolescents were similar to those found among older adolescents and young adults. Young people who have greater exposure to alcohol marketing appear to be more likely subsequently to initiate alcohol use and engage in binge and hazardous drinking. © 2016 Society for the Study of

  13. Effects of school, family and alcohol marketing communication on alcohol use and intentions to drink among Thai students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheokao, Jantima K; Kirkgulthorn, Tassanee; Yingrengreung, Siritorn; Singhprapai, Phuwasith

    2013-07-04

    This study explored effects of family, school, and marketing communications on alcohol use and intention to drink of Thai students. We conducted a survey in which 5,184 students participated. Respondents were selected randomly from school districts throughout Thailand. In this survey we measured the exposure to, reception of, and perceptions concerning alcohol marketing communication, school absenteeism and achievement, family alcohol use, students' alcohol use, and drinking intentions. Findings indicated students' low alcohol use, moderate intention to drink, and high prevalence of family drinking. The levels of exposure and also the information receptivity to alcohol media marketing of Thai students were low. The respondents had a high level of media literacy on alcohol marketing communication. Multiple regression and focus group discussions provided support for the contention that there were significant effects of school achievement, absenteeism and media marketing communication on alcohol use (R2 = 14%) and intention to drink (R2 = 11%). Therefore, consideration of relevant school and alcohol policies, including monitoring of media marketing communication, will be needed.

  14. An investigation of strategies used in alcohol brand marketing and alcohol-related health promotion on Facebook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Megan Sc; Hare, James D; Carrotte, Elise R; Dietze, Paul M

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol brands are incorporating social networking sites (SNS) into their marketing programmes. SNS are also being used to reduce alcohol consumption and harms by health promotion organisations. Marketing via SNS can attempt to influence consumers using a range of strategies from traditional marketing, social media, and behaviour change theory. This study systematically quantifies marketing strategies used by alcohol brands and health promoters on Facebook. We identified the 10 most popular alcohol brands and health promotion organisations in Australia on Facebook and extracted all posts from April 2014. A framework was developed, listing 33 SNS marketing strategies. The frequency of use of each strategy in posts was counted for all profiles. The median number of fans of alcohol brands was 189,290 compared with 7562 for health promotion pages. A total of 210 Facebook posts were analysed. Popular marketing strategies included visual attraction, connecting with other organisations, and links to culture and events. Time-specific and day-specific posts and tweets were used more regularly by alcohol brands than health promotion agencies. Alcohol brands remain substantially more popular than health promotion organisations, and this difference is likely driven by offline factors rather than specific use of marketing strategies. However, health promotion organisations can learn from the strategies used by popular brands, particularly in the use of time and day-specific content.

  15. Everyday, everywhere: alcohol marketing and social media--current trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, James

    2012-01-01

    To provide a snapshot content analysis of social media marketing among leading alcohol brands in the UK, and to outline the implications for both regulatory policies and further research. Using screengrab technology, the complete Facebook walls and Twitter timelines for 12 leading UK alcohol brands in November 2011 were captured and archived. A total of 701 brand-authored posts were identified and categorized using a thematic coding frame. Key strategic trends were identified and analysed in the light of contextual research into recent developments in marketing practice within the alcohol industry. A number of dominating trends were identified. These included the use of real-world tie-ins, interactive games, competitions and time-specific suggestions to drink. These methods reflect a strategy of branded conversation-stimulus which is favoured by social media marketing agencies. A number of distinct marketing methods are deployed by alcohol brands when using social media. These may undermine policies which seek to change social norms around drinking, especially the normalization of daily consumption. Social media marketing also raises questions regarding the efficacy of reactive regulatory frameworks. Further research into both the nature and impact of alcohol marketing on social media is needed.

  16. Trade law and alcohol regulation: what role for a global Alcohol Marketing Code?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Andrew D; Casben, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Following calls for restrictions and bans on alcohol advertising, and in light of the tobacco industry's challenge to Australia's tobacco plain packaging measure, a tobacco control measure finding support in the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, this paper considers what role, if any, an international alcohol marketing code might have in preventing or reducing the risk of challenges to domestic alcohol marketing restrictions under trade rules. Narrative review of international trade and health instruments and international trade court judgements regarding alcohol products and marketing restrictions. The experience of European trade courts in the litigation of similar measures suggests that World Trade Organization rules have sufficient flexibility to support the implementation of alcohol marketing restrictions. However, the experience also highlights the possibility that public health measures have disproportionate and unjustifiable trade effects and that the ability of a public health measure to withstand a challenge under trade rules will turn on its particular design and implementation. Measures implemented pursuant to international public health instruments are not immune to trade law challenges. Close collaboration between health policymakers, trade officials and lawyers, from as early as the research stage in the development of a measure to ensure a robust evidence base, will ensure the best chance of regulatory survival for an international marketing code. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. University-Affiliated Alcohol Marketing Enhances the Incentive Salience of Alcohol Cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, Bruce D; Loersch, Chris; Ito, Tiffany A; Levsen, Meredith P; Volpert-Esmond, Hannah I; Fleming, Kimberly A; Bolls, Paul; Carter, Brooke K

    2018-01-01

    We tested whether affiliating beer brands with universities enhances the incentive salience of those brands for underage drinkers. In Study 1, 128 undergraduates viewed beer cues while event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded. Results showed that beer cues paired with in-group backgrounds (logos for students' universities) evoked an enhanced P3 ERP component, a neural index of incentive salience. This effect varied according to students' levels of identification with their university, and the amplitude of the P3 response prospectively predicted alcohol use over 1 month. In Study 2 ( N = 104), we used a naturalistic advertisement exposure to experimentally create in-group brand associations and found that this manipulation caused an increase in the incentive salience of the beer brand. These data provide the first evidence that marketing beer via affiliating it with students' universities enhances the incentive salience of the brand for underage students and that this effect has implications for their alcohol involvement.

  18. Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Jean; Coleman, James; White, Martin

    2014-05-20

    Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast--an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team--England--suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here.

  19. An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2009-01-01

    The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has...... however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol...... have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect...

  20. Intoxigenic digital spaces? Youth, social networking sites and alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Richard; Casswell, Sally

    2010-09-01

    To examine how young people in New Zealand engage with alcohol and reproduce alcohol marketing messages and alcohol-related branding in 'Bebo', a popular social networking site (SNS) on the Internet. Data are drawn from information posted on approximately 150 Bebo Web pages and analysed by way of textual analysis and cyberspace ethnography. Social networking sites, such as Bebo, provide young people with a digital space in which to share a range of alcohol marketing messages via peer-to-peer transmission. Bebo also enables youth to communicate to one another how they consume alcohol and their views of alcohol marketing messages. The information being shared by young people who use Bebo is openly provided in the form of personal information, forum comments, digital photographs and answering quizzes about their engagement with alcohol. Through this sharing of information in the digital Internet environment, young people are creating 'intoxigenic social identities' as well as 'intoxigenic digital spaces' that further contribute towards the normalisation of youth consumption of alcohol. A better understanding of how youth are using the Internet to share their experiences with alcohol and engagement with alcohol-related messages is crucial to public health research as alcohol marketing practices rapidly evolve.

  1. Culture clash: alcohol marketing and public health aspirations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Geoffrey; de Wever, Johanna

    2008-03-01

    It is of no coincidence that a number of recent Harm Reduction Digests have addressed the issue of the reduction of alcohol-related harm. Despite the dominant focus on illicit drug use in the popular discourse, alcohol remains Australia's number one drug problem, as it is in many other developed countries. In this Digest Munro and de Wever use the 'four Ps' of marketing: product, price, place and promotion, to critique the two decades industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing. They conclude that if we are going to develop policies which effectively change Australian drinking culture to reduce alcohol-related harm, we need first to accept that the alcohol industry and the health field have separate and conflicting interests.

  2. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents’ alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordi F.; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; Dalen, Wim E.

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims: This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents’ drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for

  3. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, A. de; Tanghe, J.; Leeuw, R.N.H. de; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Anderson, P.D.; Beccaria, F.; Bujalski, M.; Celata, C.; Gosselt, J.; Schreckenberg, D.; Slodownik, L.; Wothge, J.; Dalen, W. van

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims: This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for

  4. The association between exposure to social media alcohol marketing and youth alcohol use behaviors in India and Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

    2018-06-13

    Alcohol marketing on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with alcohol use among young people. Alcohol companies adapt their online marketing content to specific national contexts and responses to such content differ by national settings. However, there exists very little academic work comparing the association between alcohol marketing on SNS and alcohol use among young people in different national settings and across different SNS. Therefore, we aimed to extend the limited existing work by investigating and comparing the association between self-reported exposure to alcohol marketing on three leading SNS (Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter) and alcohol use among young people in diverse national contexts (India and Australia). Cross-sectional, self-report data were obtained from a convenience sample of 631 respondents (330 in India; 301 in Australia) aged 13-25 years via online surveys. Respondents answered questions on their drinking behaviors and involvement with alcohol marketing on SNS. Many respondents from both countries reported interacting with alcohol content online, predominantly on Facebook, followed by YouTube and then Twitter. The interaction was primarily in the forms of posting/liking/sharing/commenting on items posted on alcohol companies' social media accounts, viewing the event page/attending the event advertised by an alcohol company via social media, and/or accessing an alcohol website. Multivariate analyses demonstrated significant associations between respondents' interaction with alcohol content and drinking levels, with effects differing by SNS, demographic group, and country. For example, having friends who shared alcohol-related content was an important predictor of usual alcohol consumption for Indian respondents (p social media platforms and national contexts. The results highlight the need to formulate and implement strategies to effectively regulate the SNS alcohol marketing, especially among younger SNS users.

  5. Current status of alcohol marketing policy--an urgent challenge for global governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally

    2012-03-01

    To review research literature and available information on the extent and impacts of marketing, current policy response and the interests engaged in the policy debate in order to inform recommendations for policy change on alcohol marketing. Relevant literature, including systematic reviews and publicly available information (websites and participant observation) is reviewed and synthesized. Alcohol marketing has expanded markedly in the past 50 years and, while there remains uncertainty about the impact across the population, there is now clear evidence of its impact on the consumption of young people. Few countries have effective policy in place restricting alcohol marketing, and there is a lack of an international response to alcohol marketing which crosses national boundaries. The protection of alcohol marketing has been a major focus for vested interest groups and this has affected governmental response at national and international levels. There has been a lack of non-governmental organization engagement. The policy response to tobacco marketing provides a clear contrast to that of alcohol marketing policy and provides a model for alcohol marketing policy. The global exposure of young people to alcohol marketing requires an urgent policy response. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate model for global governance to control alcohol marketing. There are extant examples of national level legislation achieving comprehensive bans with France's Loi Evin providing a feasible model. Resources from philanthropic organizations to allow non-governmental organization engagement are urgently required, as is engagement by the governmental sector independent of commercial influence. © 2012 The Author, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Vulnerability to alcohol-related problems: a policy brief with implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Noel, Jonathan K; Ritson, E Bruce

    2017-01-01

    The concern that alcohol advertising can have detrimental effects on vulnerable viewers has prompted the development of codes of responsible advertising practices. This paper evaluates critically the concept of vulnerability as it applies to (1) susceptibility to alcohol-related harm and (2) susceptibility to the effects of marketing, and describes its implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing. We describe the findings of key published studies, review papers and expert reports to determine whether these two types of vulnerability apply to population groups defined by (1) age and developmental history; (2) personality characteristics; (3) family history of alcoholism; (4) female sex and pregnancy risk; and (5) history of alcohol dependence and recovery status. Developmental theory and research suggest that groups defined by younger age, incomplete neurocognitive development and a history of alcohol dependence may be particularly vulnerable because of the disproportionate harm they experience from alcohol and their increased susceptibility to alcohol marketing. Children may be more susceptible to media imagery because they do not have the ability to compensate for biases in advertising portrayals and glamorized media imagery. Young people and people with a history of alcohol dependence appear to be especially vulnerable to alcohol marketing, warranting the development of new content and exposure guidelines focused on protecting those groups to improve current self-regulation codes promoted by the alcohol industry. If adequate protections cannot be implemented through this mechanism, statutory regulations should be considered. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Flavored alcoholic beverages: an international marketing campaign that targets youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, James F; Johnsson, Diane

    2005-09-01

    Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) were first introduced into the alcohol market in the early I980s in the form of wine coolers. FABs are sweet, relatively low alcohol content beverages that are designed for "entry-level" drinkers. The alcohol industry has introduced new products and production methods to expand the category's popularity. Research suggests that they are popular with underage drinkers, particularly teenage girls, and that the industry uses marketing practices that appear to target youth. FABs are now marketed globally, and their production and marketing vary by country based on national regulatory restraints. In the United States, industry representations that the products are malt beverages for regulatory purposes appears to violate many state laws because the alcohol in the FABs is derived from distilled spirits. Recommendations for regulatory reform, including new legal definitions of FABs, increased taxes, and restrictions on availability, are applicable at both national and state levels.

  8. Peer, social media, and alcohol marketing influences on college student drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberson, Angela A; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

    2018-07-01

    To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as well as moderation by gender and race. Drinking behavior was directly related to perceived norms and attitudes toward alcohol that develop, in part, from direct and indirect interactions with their online and offline peers, as well as engagement with alcohol-related content on social media. Gender and ethnicity moderated some effects. College student drinking is influenced by friends' alcohol-related content posted on social networking sites and by greater engagement with traditional and online alcohol marketing. College campus alcohol misuse interventions should include components to counter peer influences and alcohol marketing on social media.

  9. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, Richard I; Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-06-29

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect "alibi marketing". To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people.

  10. Alcohol marketing research: the need for a new agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra S

    2011-03-01

    This paper aims to contribute to a rethink of marketing research priorities to address policy makers' evidence needs in relation to alcohol marketing. Discussion paper reviewing evidence gaps identified during an appraisal of policy options to restrict alcohol marketing. Evidence requirements can be categorized as follows: (i) the size of marketing effects for the whole population and for policy-relevant population subgroups, (ii) the balance between immediate and long-term effects and the time lag, duration and cumulative build-up of effects and (iii) comparative effects of partial versus comprehensive marketing restrictions on consumption and harm. These knowledge gaps impede the appraisal and evaluation of existing and new interventions, because without understanding the size and timing of expected effects, researchers may choose inadequate time-frames, samples or sample sizes. To date, research has tended to rely on simplified models of marketing and has focused disproportionately on youth populations. The effects of cumulative exposure across multiple marketing channels, targeting of messages at certain population groups and indirect effects of advertising on consumption remain unclear. It is essential that studies into marketing effect sizes are geared towards informing policy decision-makers, anchored strongly in theory, use measures of effect that are well-justified and recognize fully the complexities of alcohol marketing efforts. © 2010 The Author, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  11. Distorted Facets of Marketing Ethics for Alcoholic Beer Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newaj Avinash

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Marketing is the art of delivering value whilst ethical marketing is to provide this value through what is morally right. This new era customers are well informed, more knowledgeable, less vulnerable to unethical practices and cannot be easily manipulated by marketers. Many companies are thus, moving towards ethical marketing so as to develop trust among existing and new customers. Strict regulations by the Mauritian government have further forced marketers to act ethically; whereby the advertising of alcoholic beers has been banned. Yet, indirect strategies have been adopted by marketers so as to pave their way in this competitive industry. What are they? Are customers aware about them and are they influenced? Road accidents, social violence and health problems are associated to such malpractice. This study has shed light on the above and measures have been proposed for the benefit of customers, marketers and the government. This study was connected to the ethical theories.

  12. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect “alibi marketing”. To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people. PMID:28661462

  13. Measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing on social networking sites: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E

    2014-02-01

    Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices.

  14. Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Schuster, Lisa; Drennan, Judy; Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Leo, Cheryl; Gullo, Matthew J; Connor, Jason P

    2015-10-01

    This study seeks to establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the GOKA program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2,114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral, and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking refusal self-efficacy of identified segments were subsequently examined. Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers, (2) Bingers, and (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post-participation were observed for Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting the application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments will extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Policy Approaches for Regulating Alcohol Marketing in a Global Context: A Public Health Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2018-04-01

    Alcohol consumption is responsible for 3.3 million deaths globally or nearly 6% of all deaths. Alcohol use contributes to both communicable and noncommunicable diseases, as well as violence and injuries. The purpose of this review is to discuss, in the context of the expansion of transnational alcohol corporations and harms associated with alcohol use, policy options for regulating exposure to alcohol marketing. We first provide an overview of the public health problem of harmful alcohol consumption and describe the association between exposure to alcohol marketing and alcohol consumption. We then discuss the growth and concentration of global alcohol corporations and their marketing practices in low- and middle-income countries, as well as in higher-income societies. We review the use and effectiveness of various approaches for regulating alcohol marketing in various countries before discussing challenges and opportunities to protect public health.

  16. Industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing: a systematic review of content and exposure research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    With governments relying increasingly upon the alcohol industry's self-regulated marketing codes to restrict alcohol marketing activity, there is a need to summarize the findings of research relevant to alcohol marketing controls. This paper provides a systematic review of studies investigating the content of, and exposure to, alcohol marketing in relation to self-regulated guidelines. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: SCOPUS, Web of Science, PubMed and PsychINFO. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations and government research centers were also identified. Ninety-six publications met the inclusion criteria. Of the 19 studies evaluating a specific marketing code and 25 content analysis studies reviewed, all detected content that could be considered potentially harmful to children and adolescents, including themes that appeal strongly to young men. Of the 57 studies of alcohol advertising exposure, high levels of youth exposure and high awareness of alcohol advertising were found for television, radio, print, digital and outdoor advertisements. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising has increased over time, even as greater compliance with exposure thresholds has been documented. Violations of the content guidelines within self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are highly prevalent in certain media. Exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly among youth, is also prevalent. Taken together, the findings suggest that the current self-regulatory systems that govern alcohol marketing practices are not meeting their intended goal of protecting vulnerable populations. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Children's exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets: An objective analysis using GPS technology and wearable cameras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, T; Pearson, A L; Stanley, J; Smith, M; Barr, M; Ni Mhurchu, C; Signal, L

    2017-07-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing within alcohol retailers has been associated with higher rates of childhood drinking, brand recognition, and marketing recall. This study aimed to objectively measure children's everyday exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets. Children aged 11-13 (n = 167) each wore a wearable camera and GPS device for four consecutive days. Micro-spatial analyses were used to examine exposures within supermarkets. In alcohol retailing supermarkets (n = 30), children encountered alcohol marketing on 85% of their visits (n = 78). Alcohol marketing was frequently near everyday goods (bread and milk) or entrance/exit. Alcohol sales in supermarkets should be banned in order to protect children from alcohol marketing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the ‘regulatory pyramid’, alcohol being less regulated than tobacco. PMID:28118411

  19. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentine Petronella Martino

    Full Text Available A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1 is unnecessary; (2 is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3 will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4 faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5 that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

  20. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

  1. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and regulations of Rosstandart. Results basing on a sampling of certificates for products directly from retail outlets analysis of the state alcohol and tobacco consumer market of Tatarstan was carried out. Improper filling of the form of the certificate for products was identified violating all existing norms and laws which are strictly prescribed in technical regulations. On the basis of these violations the validity of certificates for products was assessed and the conclusion was made about the products quality. The share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the total sales in the consumer market was assessed. The shortcomings of the inspection authorities to detect counterfeit products were identified. Scientific novelty the consumer market was researched basing on the method of sampling using probability theory and mathematical statistics to estimate the share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan. The error sampling for counterfeit products in the consumer market was defined. Practical significance the obtained results will allow the inspection authorities to better and more accurately identify counterfeit goods and to restrict the access of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer market of Tatarstan. It is necessary to strengthen the role of state regulation of commercial activities in the consumer market of Russia to stop the flow of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer

  2. Point-of-purchase alcohol marketing and promotion by store type--United States, 2000-2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-11

    Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States, accounting for approximately 100,000 deaths annually. Efforts to reduce the adverse health and social consequences from alcohol use include policies to restrict access to alcohol among underaged persons (i.e., persons aged Point-of-purchase (POP) (i.e., on-site) marketing, including alcohol advertising and placement, can increase alcohol sales and consumption substantially, thereby increasing the risk for various alcohol-related health outcomes, including alcohol-impaired driving and interpersonal violence. To assess the type and frequency of POP alcohol marketing, researchers with the ImpacTeen Project collected and analyzed store observation data during 2000-2001 from 3,961 alcohol retailers in 329 communities throughout the United States. This report summarizes the results of the study, which indicate that POP alcohol marketing is extensive in certain store types frequented by teenagers and young adults. Public health agencies and policy makers should work with liquor control boards to reduce POP marketing that could promote risky or underage drinking.

  3. The commercial use of digital media to market alcohol products: a narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobstein, Tim; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    The rising use of digital media in the last decade, including social networking media and downloadable applications, has created new opportunities for marketing a wide range of goods and services, including alcohol products. This paper aims to review the evidence in order to answer a series of policy-relevant questions: does alcohol marketing through digital media influence drinking behaviour or increases consumption; what methods of promotional marketing are used, and to what extent; and what is the evidence of marketing code violations and especially of marketing to children? A search of scientific, medical and social journals and authoritative grey literature identified 47 relevant papers (including 14 grey literature documents). The evidence indicated (i) that exposure to marketing through digital media was associated with higher levels of drinking behaviour; (ii) that the marketing activities make use of materials and approaches that are attractive to young people and encourage interactive engagement with branded messaging; and (iii) there is evidence that current alcohol marketing codes are being undermined by alcohol producers using digital media. There is evidence to support public health interventions to restrict the commercial promotion of alcohol in digital media, especially measures to protect children and youth. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 316 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  5. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765

  6. Alcohol regulation, communication strategies and underage alcohol consumption in Spain: Implications for social marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez Sánchez, Carla; Sancho-Esper, Franco

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it examines the communication strategies pursued by firms related to alcohol beverages in Spain during a decade with major changes in alcohol marketing regulations. Second, it analyzes the relationship between these strategies and underage alcohol consumption before and after 2007. Design/methodology/approach. Panel data methodology is implemented using data from ESTUDES national survey (average sample size 26,000 interviews, 2004-2010) an...

  7. Framing a public health debate over alcohol advertising: the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth 2002-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H

    2011-05-01

    The experiences of the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth from 2002 to 2008 in re-framing a major public health issue and influencing public policy offer lessons for other public health movements. The Center pioneered new ways to use commercial market research data in public health surveillance and public debate. Combining a steady stream of reports and peer-reviewed articles with state and federal organizing and media advocacy, the Center re-framed a policy debate over alcohol marketing and youth, enabling measurable progress.

  8. Regulation of alcohol marketing: a global view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna

    2005-09-01

    The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves.

  9. Examining How Media Literacy and Personality Factors Predict Skepticism Toward Alcohol Advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W

    2016-05-01

    To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages.

  10. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Meriam M; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; van Bon-Martens, Marja J H; van Oers, Hans A M; Garretsen, Henk F L

    2013-06-01

    Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour could not be assessed. More

  11. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. Method A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Conclusion Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or

  12. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing : A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.M.; Mathijssen, J.J.P.; van Bon-Martens, M.J.H.; van Oers, J.A.M.; Garretsen, H.F.L.

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing

  13. When evidence is not enough: a case study on alcohol marketing legislation in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vendrame, Alan

    2017-01-01

    This case study identifies the influence and mechanisms that the alcohol industry in Brazil has been able to bring to bear to maintain self-regulation in the marketing of beer and many wines set against a trend of increasing alcohol consumption in Brazil, particularly among young people and women. It identifies the forms of power and strategies used by the alcohol industry in Brazil that may be useful for other countries to consider in seeking to move from self-regulation to state regulation of alcohol marketing. A review was conducted of recent legal documents and court cases, as well as the activities of alcoholic beverage industries. Because of an exemption, Brazilian law had established that both beer and many wines are not alcoholic beverages for marketing purposes. These beverages are subjected to industry self-regulation codes. Research shows that beer and wine marketing often violates industry codes, with little or no enforcement of penalties for non-compliance. Attempts to include beer and wine in the legal definition of alcohol have been opposed by the alcohol industry, and the courts have delegated responsibility to the legislature. The recent legal activities surrounding alcohol sales during the 2014 World Cup games in Brazil provide evidence of the alcohol industry's influence on the legislative process. The alcohol industry in Brazil plays a significant role in the formulation of public policies on alcohol, especially regarding the regulation of marketing. This power is exercised by strong lobbying of government officials responsible for public policies. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  14. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savell, Emily; Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-01-01

    To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second-reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self-regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non-regulatory initiatives. The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of

  15. Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

    2008-09-01

    Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.

  16. Marketing alcohol to young people: implications for industry regulation and research policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M

    2000-12-01

    This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring.

  17. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  18. Underage access to online alcohol marketing content: a YouTube case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Johnson, Emily; Rabre, Alexander; Darville, Gabrielle; Donovan, Kristin M; Efunbumi, Orisatalabi

    2015-01-01

    With the proliferation of the Internet and online social media use, alcohol advertisers are now marketing their products through social media sites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. As a result, new recommendations have been made by the Federal Trade Commission concerning the self-regulation of digital marketing strategies, including content management on social and digital media sites. The current study sought to determine whether alcohol companies were implementing the self-imposed mandates that they have developed for online marketing. Specifically, we examined whether alcohol companies were implementing effective strategies that would prevent persons under the minimum legal drinking age in the USA from accessing their content on YouTube. We assessed 16 alcohol brands (beer and liquor) associated with the highest prevalence of past 30 day underage alcohol consumption in the USA. Fictitious YouTube user profiles were created and assigned the ages of 14, 17 and 19. These profiles then attempted to access and view the brewer-sponsored YouTube channels for each of the 16 selected brands. Every underage profile, regardless of age, was able to successfully subscribe to each of the 16 (100%) official YouTube channels. On average, two-thirds of the brands' channels were successfully viewed (66.67%). Alcohol industry provided online marketing content is predominantly accessible to underage adolescents. Thus, brewers are not following some of the self-developed and self-imposed mandates for online advertising by failing to implement effective age-restriction measures (i.e. age gates). © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  19. Reinforcement of smoking and drinking: tobacco marketing strategies linked with alcohol in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan; Ling, Pamela M

    2011-10-01

    We investigated tobacco companies' knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Tobacco companies' numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use.

  20. Exposure to Online Alcohol Marketing and Adolescents' Drinking: A Cross-sectional Study in Four European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-09-01

    The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in four European countries. A total of 9038 students with a mean age of 14.05 (SD 0.82) participated in a school-based survey in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Logistic regression analyses of cross-sectional cross-country survey data were undertaken. Exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising and ownership of alcohol-branded items was estimated to be controlled for relevant confounders. Onset of drinking and binge drinking in the past 30 days were included in the study as outcome variables. Adjusted for relevant confounders, higher exposure to (online) alcohol marketing exposure was found to be related to the odds of starting to drink (p four countries. Active engagement with online alcohol marketing was found to interact more strongly with drinking outcomes than passive exposure to online alcohol marketing. Youngsters in the four European countries report frequent exposure to online alcohol marketing. The association between this exposure and adolescents' drinking was robust and seems consistent across national contexts. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  1. Exploring college students' use of general and alcohol-related social media and their associations with alcohol-related behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors. Public and private university students (N = 637) participated November and December 2011 and April 2012. College students completed online surveys to measure their exposure to social and online media generally, as well as their alcohol-related digital media use and alcohol use. Use of social media related to alcohol marketing predicted alcohol consumption and engaging in risky behaviors, whereas the use of social media more generally did not. Students' use of alcohol-related social media-marketing content associates with their problem drinking. Results have implications for alcohol abuse reduction efforts targeted at college students and suggest the importance of considering social, cultural, and cognitive factors in campaign planning and design.

  2. Alcohol prevention on college campuses: the moderating effect of the alcohol environment on the effectiveness of social norms marketing campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard A; Theall, Katherine P; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-03-01

    Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N= 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets.

  3. Position of Serbia on the international market of alcoholic beverages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorović Milutin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparative analysis of the major indicators of both the world and domestic markets of alcoholic beverages. Namely, for the last 21 years, for the observed subperiods, the method of comparative analysis were used to study quantitative and structural differences in the production and trade of analyzed product groups, at both the world and at the level of continents and some countries. The leading manufacturers and flows of international trade and the leading exporters and importers of wine, beer and distilled alcoholic beverages were defined, with special emphasis on the importance of Serbia, i.e. its position in the global market for all these products. Pursuant to the above, and importance of analyzed product groups for the domestic market, i.e. agroindustry and the economy as a whole, this paper specially studies balances, structure, dynamics and regional orientation of foreign trade exchange in wine, beer, and distilled alcoholic beverages. In addition, the paper points to the needs, capabilities, measures and directions of further development of domestic production and export of products analyzed.

  4. Reinforcement of Smoking and Drinking: Tobacco Marketing Strategies Linked With Alcohol in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637

  5. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colell, Esther; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

    2014-11-01

    Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development Study covering ages 33-50 (N=9960), we used multilevel growth models to study the association between labour market categories and longitudinal changes in weekly units of alcohol consumed. In the reference group of full-time employed men alcohol trajectory decreased over the follow-up period (β=-0.14; 95% CI -0.18 to -0.11) while in the reference group of employed women it increased (β=0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.08). Men and women who were 'mainly sick' had significantly steeper declines in their alcohol consumption trajectory. Women who became employed after being homemakers had the steepest increase in alcohol use (β=0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Being employed is a strong determinant of alcohol use for men and women in midlife, making the workplace a good target for health promotion programmes and policies aimed at reducing alcohol use. Caution is needed when interpreting the health effects of alcohol consumption as low alcohol users may have previously been heavy drinkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Red flags on pinkwashed drinks: contradictions and dangers in marketing alcohol to prevent cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mart, Sarah; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2015-10-01

    To document alcohol products and promotions that use the pink ribbon symbol and related marketing materials that associate alcohol brands with breast cancer charities, awareness and survivors. We conducted a basic Boolean public internet search for alcohol products with pink ribbon/breast cancer awareness marketing campaigns. There is strong and growing evidence of alcohol as a contributing cause of several types of cancer, including breast cancer. There is no U-shaped curve for cancer, and threshold of elevated relative risk is as low as one drink a day for certain cancers. We found 17 examples of alcohol product campaigns with websites, press releases and social media posts, along with news articles and blog posts from industry and non-profit organizations regarding alcohol products associated with breast cancer causes and charities. Various cancer charities have entered into alliances with sectors of the alcohol industry that raise funds for breast cancer research, treatment or prevention by promoting the purchase of certain alcoholic beverages. Some alcohol corporations use pink ribbons and other breast cancer-related images, messages and user-generated media to market a product that contributes to cancer disease and death. Therefore, cancer charities should adopt policies to separate them from alliances with the alcohol industry. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Development of a Climate Prediction Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulston, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

  8. Do premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence also predict the failure to recover from alcoholism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim; Nickel, Elizabeth J

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: In a search for viable endophenotypes of alcoholism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism. METHOD: The 202 male subjects who completed a 40-year follow-up were originally selected from...... diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifiers. RESULTS: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were......: cognitive efficiency and early behavioral dyscontrol in childhood. Both factors predicted the failure to remit (low cognitive efficiency and high behavioral dyscontrol) even when lifetime alcoholism severity was controlled. CONCLUSIONS: This 4-decade study found a striking disconnect between measures...

  9. Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A.; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F.; Stamates, Amy L.; O’Connor, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use. PMID:28138317

  10. Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

    2014-11-01

    The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

  11. Paternal alcoholism predicts the occurrence but not the remission of alcoholic drinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, J; Penick, E C; Nickel, E J

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the effects of father's alcoholism on the development and remission from alcoholic drinking by age 40. METHOD: Subjects were selected from a Danish birth cohort that included 223 sons of alcoholic fathers (high risk; HR) and 106 matched controls (low risk; LR). Clinical...... examinations were performed at age 40 (n = 202) by a psychiatrist using structured interviews and DSM-III-R diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: HR subjects were significantly more likely than LR subjects to develop alcohol dependence (31% vs. 16%), but not alcohol abuse (17% vs. 15%). More subjects with alcohol...... abuse were in remission at age 40 than subjects with alcohol dependence. Risk did not predict remission from either alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence. CONCLUSION: Familial influences may play a stronger role in the development of alcoholism than in the remission or recovery from alcoholism....

  12. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

  13. Alcohol Marketing, Drunkenness, and Problem Drinking among Zambian Youth: Findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica H. Swahn

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS conducted in Zambia (2004 of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (=2257. Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09–2.02 and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06–1.87 among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  14. Alcohol marketing, drunkenness, and problem drinking among Zambian youth: findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  15. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

  16. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicia Alvarez-Aguirre

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents.METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used.RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year.CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

  17. Peer, Social Media, and Alcohol Marketing Influences on College Student Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberson, Angela A.; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

    2018-01-01

    Objective: To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. Participants: College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Methods: Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as…

  18. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife

    OpenAIRE

    Colell, E.; Bell, S.; Britton, A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. METHODS: Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development...

  19. Alcohol marketing in the 21st century: new methods, old problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mart, Sarah M

    2011-01-01

    Marketing and advertising for alcoholic beverages is abundant throughout the United States and the rest of the world. Despite the fact that alcohol advertising is related to earlier initiation of drinking, higher rates of consumption, and positive expectancies among youth populations, alcohol companies continue to design new products and related campaigns with youth-friendly attributes. Alcopops and caffeinated alcoholic beverages are two particularly dangerous types of products, and new social networking technologies make direct promotion easy and voluminous. In order to stop the harm from these alcohol products and promotion, advocacy from the research community is imperative. Copyright © 2011 Informa Healthcare USA, Inc.

  20. North America markets for alcohol and alcohol-derived motor fuels and need for tax incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigwood, B.

    1991-01-01

    The U.S. fuel alcohol and ether industry has grown from its infancy in 1979 to approximately 2.9 billion gallons of production capacity in 1991. With the emphasis on clean air, the uncertainties in the Middle East, and fluctuating oil prices, IRI believes the demand for alcohol-derived motor fuels is poised to begin a second phase of expansion. Historically, the two primary alcohol-derived motor fuels sold in the U.S. have been methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol. There is also a limited but growing use of methanol as 85% blendstock for gasoline. Since 1978, fuel ethanol has provided the U.S. petroleum industry with an additional source of supply, octane, and profit. Its price was based on the price of wholesale gasoline plus available federal and state tax incentives. These incentives allowed ethanol, with production costs of $1.00 to $1.25 per gallon, to compete with gasoline at prices of 40 to 65 per gallon. Without the federal and state tax incentives, it would not be economically feasible to sell or manufacture fuel ethanol. On the other hand, the largest consumption of methanol has been as a feedstock for the production of MTBE, the world's fastest growing chemical over the past seven years. MTBE prices are based on the cost of raising the octane level of gasoline, and this commodity does not receive subsidies. Beginning in 1992, IRI predicts the price relationship between ethanol, MTBE, and gasoline will change as U.S. refiners and marketers are required to include oxygenated fuels (alcohol-derived) in their gasoline. In total, over 60 billion gallons of gasoline will need to be reformulated by the year 2000. The increased demand for oxygen will result in a 2.5-billion gallon deficit of MTBE and 1.2-billion gallon deficit of ethanol by the year 2000. 2 tabs

  1. Alcohol marketing in the Americas and Spain during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Feulner, Melissa; Vendrame, Alan; Monteiro, Maristela

    2017-01-01

    To identify the nature of visual alcohol references in alcohol advertisements during televised broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament matches and to evaluate cross-national differences according to alcohol marketing policy restrictiveness. Content analysis using the Delphi method and identification of in-game sponsorships. Television broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Mexico, Spain and the United States. Eighty-seven alcohol advertisements; 20 matches. Quantitative rating scales, combined with the Delphi rating technique, were used to determine compliance of the alcohol advertisements with the International Alliance for Responsible Drinking's (IARD) Guiding Principles. Recordings of five matches from four countries were also used to identify the number of in- and out-of-game alcohol brand appearances. A total of 86.2% of all unique alcohol advertisements contained at least one violation of IARD's Guiding Principles, with violation rates ranging from 72.7% (Mexico) to 100% (Brazil). Countries with the least restrictive marketing policies had a higher prevalence of violations in guidelines designed to protect minors. There were 2.76 in-game alcohol brand appearances and 0.83 out-of-game alcohol brand appearances per minute. Brand appearances did not differ across countries or according to a country's marketing policy restrictiveness. Self-regulation and statutory policies were ineffective at limiting alcohol advertising during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament television broadcasts. Most advertisements contained content that violated the self-regulation codes, and there were high levels of within-broadcast brand appearances. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  2. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winpenny, Eleanor M; Marteau, Theresa M; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15-24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation.

  3. Exposure of Children and Adolescents to Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506

  4. Do marketing and alcohol treatment/public health experts think televised alcohol advertisements abide by regulatory guidelines?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Kelly; Cameron, Elaine; Williams, Hannah; Banister, Emma; Donmall, Michael; Higgins, Alan; French, David P

    2018-04-01

    Televised alcohol advertisements in the United Kingdom must abide by the Broadcast Committee of Advertising Practice Code, which provides guidelines concerning advertisements not implying, condoning or encouraging immoderate, irresponsible or antisocial drinking. Previously, 75 per cent of 373 general public respondents were shown one of seven advertisements rated a breach of at least one guideline. This study assessed whether experts in marketing ( n = 25) and alcohol treatment/public health ( n = 25) perceived the same seven television alcohol advertisements as complying with the Broadcast Committee of Advertising Practice Code. Overall, 83 per cent of advertisements were rated as breaching at least one guideline. This provides further proof that self-regulatory alcohol guidelines are not fit for purpose.

  5. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swahn, Monica H; Palmier, Jane B; Benegas-Segarra, Agnes; Sinson, Fe A

    2013-12-10

    A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths' drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5,290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI=1.06-3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI=1.05-2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI =1.06-2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  6. Alcohol marketing in televised English professional football: a frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Andrew; Adams, Jean

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to explore the frequency of alcohol marketing (both formal commercials and otherwise) in televised top-class English professional football matches. A purposive sample of six broadcasts (total = 1101 min) of televised top-class English club football matches were identified and recorded in full. A customized coding framework was used to identify and categorize all verbal and visual alcohol references in non-commercial broadcasting. The number and the duration of all formal alcohol commercials were also noted. A mean of 111 visual references and 2 verbal references to alcohol per hour of broadcast were identified. Nearly all visual references were to beer products and were primarily simple logos or branding. The majority of verbal alcohol references were related to title-sponsorship of competitions. A total of 17 formal alcohol commercials were identified, accounting for <1% of total broadcast time. Visual alcohol references in televised top-class English football matches are common with an average of nearly two per minute. Verbal references are rare and formal alcohol commercials account for <1% of broadcast time. Restriction of all alcohol sports sponsorship, as seen for tobacco, may be justified.

  7. Drinking without thinking: an implicit measure of alcohol motivation predicts failure to control alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Greenwald, Anthony G

    2008-11-01

    Addiction is characterized by dyscontrol - substance use despite intentions to restrain. Using a sample of at-risk drinkers, the present study examined whether an implicit measure of alcohol motivation (the Implicit Association Test [IAT]; Greenwald, A.G., McGhee, D.E., & Schwartz, J.L.K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the Implicit Association Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464-1480) would predict dyscontrol of alcohol use. Participants completed an IAT and, to elicit motivation to restrain alcohol use, were instructed that greater consumption in a taste test would impair performance on a later task for which they could win a prize. All participants viewed aversive slides and then completed a thought-listing task. Participants either exerted self-control by suppressing negative affect and thoughts regarding the slides or did not exert self-control. Post-manipulation, the groups did not differ in mood, urge to drink or motivation to restrain consumption. During the subsequent taste test, participants whose self-control resources were depleted consumed more alcohol than did those in the control group. Additionally, the IAT, but not an explicit measure of alcohol motivation, more strongly predicted alcohol use when self-control resources were depleted. The results indicate that the IAT may have utility in predicting dyscontrolled alcohol use.

  8. Importance of alcohol-related expectations and emotional expressivity for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol in alcohol-dependent patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavinskienė, Justina; Žardeckaitė-Matulaitienė, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of alcohol-dependent patients' emotional expressivity, alcohol-related expectations and socio-demographic factors for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. The study sample consisted of 136 alcohol-dependent patients (100 men and 36 women) undergoing treatment in Kaunas center for addictive disorders. Only higher expression of negative alcohol-related expectations (std. beta=0.192, P=0.023), higher emotional impulse intensity (std. beta=0.229, P=0.021) and higher expression of positive emotional expressiveness (std. beta=0.021, P=0.020) as well as gender (std. beta=0.180, P=0.049), education (std. beta=-0.137, P=0.038) and alcohol dependency treatment conditions (members of support group after rehabilitation program) (std. beta=0.288, P=0.001; std. beta=0.608, P=0.001) were significant factors for predicting the different level of alcohol-dependent patients motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. Negative alcohol-related expectations, emotional impulse intensity and positive emotional expressiveness were significant even though quite weak triggers for alcohol-dependent patients' different level of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. An assumption could be made that by changing these triggers it is possible to change addictive behavior. Copyright © 2014 Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  9. One size (never) fits all: segment differences observed following a school-based alcohol social marketing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-04-01

    According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. A sample of 371 year 10 students (aged: 14-16 years; 51.4% boys) participated in a prospective (pre-post) multisite alcohol social marketing program. Game On: Know Alcohol (GO:KA) program included 6, student-centered, and interactive lessons to teach adolescents about alcohol and strategies to abstain or moderate drinking. A repeated measures design was used. Baseline demographics, drinking attitudes, drinking intentions, and alcohol knowledge were cluster analyzed to identify segments. Change on key program outcome measures and satisfaction with program components were assessed by segment. Three segments were identified; (1) Skeptics, (2) Risky Males, (3) Good Females. Segments 2 and 3 showed greatest change in drinking attitudes and intentions. Good Females reported highest satisfaction with all program components and Skeptics lowest program satisfaction with all program components. Three segments, each differing on psychographic and demographic variables, exhibited different change patterns following participation in GO:KA. Post hoc analysis identified that satisfaction with program components differed by segment offering opportunities for further research. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  10. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9-17. MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

  11. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264

  12. Alcohol marketing on YouTube: exploratory analysis of content adaptation to enhance user engagement in different national contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

    2018-01-16

    We know little about how social media alcohol marketing is utilized for alcohol promotion in different national contexts. There does not appear to be any academic work on online exposure to alcohol marketing via social media in India, and most of the limited research in Australia has focused on Facebook. Hence, the present study extends previous research by investigating alcohol promotion conducted on an under-researched form of social media (YouTube) in two contrasting geographic contexts. This study examines and compares the types of strategies used by marketers on Indian and Australian alcohol brands with the greatest YouTube presence, and the extent to which users engage with these strategies. The 10 alcohol brands per country with the greatest YouTube presence were identified based on the number of 'subscriptions'. The number of videos, views per video, and the type of content within the videos were collected for each brand. The data were analyzed using an inductive coding approach, using NVivo 10. The targeted brands had gathered 98,881 subscriptions (Indian brands: n = 13,868; Australian brands: n = 85,013). The type of marketing strategies utilized by brands were a mix of those that differed by country (e.g. sexually suggestive content in India and posts related to the brand's tradition or heritage in Australia) and generic approaches (e.g. encouraging time- and event-specific drinking; demonstrations of food/cocktail recipes; camaraderie; competitions and prize draws; and brand sponsorship at music, sports, and fashion events). This cross-national comparison demonstrates that YouTube provides alcohol marketers with an advertising platform where they utilize tailored marketing approaches to cater to specific national contexts and develop content on the cultural meanings users invoke in their interactions with these strategies. Those exposed to alcohol marketing on YouTube are likely to include those under the legal drinking age.

  13. Simultaneous alcohol and cannabis expectancies predict simultaneous use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earleywine Mitch

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicts increased negative consequences for users beyond individual or even concurrent use of the two drugs. Given the widespread use of the drugs and common simultaneous consumption, problems unique to simultaneous use may bear important implications for many substance users. Cognitive expectancies offer a template for future drug use behavior based on previous drug experiences, accurately predicting future use and problems. Studies reveal similar mechanisms underlying both alcohol and cannabis expectancies, but little research examines simultaneous expectancies for alcohol and cannabis use. Whereas research has demonstrated unique outcomes associated with simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use, this study hypothesized that unique cognitive expectancies may underlie simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use. Results: This study examined a sample of 2600 (66% male; 34% female Internet survey respondents solicited through advertisements with online cannabis-related organizations. The study employed known measures of drug use and expectancies, as well as a new measure of simultaneous drug use expectancies. Expectancies for simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicted simultaneous use over and above expectancies for each drug individually. Discussion Simultaneous expectancies may provide meaningful information not available with individual drug expectancies. These findings bear potential implications on the assessment and treatment of substance abuse problems, as well as researcher conceptualizations of drug expectancies. Policies directing the treatment of substance abuse and its funding ought to give unique consideration to simultaneous drug use and its cognitive underlying factors.

  14. Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.

  15. Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

    2016-03-01

    To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

  16. Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents' alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Janssen, Tim; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2015-12-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted the first alcoholic drink and first binge drinking episode in young adolescents using discrete survival analyses. Adolescents were selected from several Dutch secondary schools including both mainstream and special education (externalizing behavioral problems). Participants were 534 adolescents between 12 and 14 years at baseline. Executive functioning and alcohol use were assessed four times over a period of two years. Working memory uniquely predicted the onset of first drink (p=.01) and first binge drinking episode (p=.04) while response inhibition only uniquely predicted the initiating of the first drink (p=.01). These results suggest that the association of executive functioning and alcohol consumption found in former studies cannot simply be interpreted as an effect of alcohol consumption, as weaknesses in executive functioning, found in alcohol naïve adolescents, predict the initiating of (binge) drinking. Though, prolonged and heavy alcohol use might further weaken already existing deficiencies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Alcohol marketing on YouTube: exploratory analysis of content adaptation to enhance user engagement in different national contexts

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J.

    2018-01-01

    Background We know little about how social media alcohol marketing is utilized for alcohol promotion in different national contexts. There does not appear to be any academic work on online exposure to alcohol marketing via social media in India, and most of the limited research in Australia has focused on Facebook. Hence, the present study extends previous research by investigating alcohol promotion conducted on an under-researched form of social media (YouTube) in two contrasting geographic ...

  18. Alcohol expectancies longitudinally predict drinking and the alcohol myopia effects of relief, self-inflation, and excess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lac, Andrew; Brack, Nathaniel

    2018-02-01

    Alcohol myopia theory posits that alcohol consumption attenuates information processing capacity, and that expectancy beliefs together with intake level are responsible for experiences in myopic effects (relief, self-inflation, and excess). Adults (N=413) averaging 36.39 (SD=13.02) years of age completed the Comprehensive Effects of Alcohol questionnaire at baseline, followed by alcohol use measures (frequency and quantity) and the Alcohol Myopia Scale one month later. Three structural equation models based on differing construct manifestations of alcohol expectancies served to longitudinally forecast alcohol use and myopia. In Model 1, overall expectancy predicted greater alcohol use and higher levels of all three myopic effects. In Model 2, specifying separate positive and negative expectancy factors, positive but not negative expectancy predicted greater use. Furthermore, positive expectancy and use explained higher myopic relief and higher self-inflation, whereas positive expectancy, negative expectancy, and use explained higher myopic excess. In Model 3, the seven specific expectancy subscales (sociability, tension reduction, liquid courage, sexuality, cognitive and behavioral impairment, risk and aggression, and self-perception) were simultaneously specified as predictors. Tension reduction expectancy, sexuality expectancy, and use contributed to higher myopic relief; sexuality expectancy and use explained higher myopic self-inflation; and risk and aggression expectancy and use accounted for higher myopic excess. Across all three predictive models, the total variance explained ranged from 12 to 19% for alcohol use, 50 to 51% for relief, 29 to 34% for self-inflation, and 32 to 35% for excess. Findings support that the type of alcohol myopia experienced is a concurrent function of self-fulfilling alcohol prophecies and drinking levels. The interpreted measurement manifestation of expectancy yielded different prevention implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  19. Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    diffusion models in marketing research use fairly simple demand models. In this paper we discuss the problem of predicting market shares for new products and suggest a method that combines advanced choice models with a diffusion model to take into account that new products often need time to gain......Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate demand models...... are suitable to forecast demand in relatively stable markets, but show limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for new products it is crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market over time through a diffusion process. However, typical...

  20. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

  1. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    Aim To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9–17. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Results Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Conclusion Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. PMID:27864186

  2. Alcohol use and the labor market in Uruguay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balsa, Ana I; French, Michael T

    2010-07-01

    This paper is one of only a few studies to examine potential labor market consequences of heavy or abusive drinking in Latin America and the first to focus on Uruguay. We analyzed data from a Uruguayan household survey conducted in 2006 using propensity score matching methods and controlling for a number of socio-demographic, family, regional, behavioral health, and labor market characteristics. As expected, we found a positive association between heavy drinking and absenteeism, particularly for female employees. Counter to the findings for developed countries, our results revealed a positive relationship between heavy drinking and labor force participation or employment. This result was mostly driven by men and weakened when considering more severe measures of abusive drinking. Possible explanations for these findings are that employment leads to greater alcohol use through an income effect, that the Uruguayan labor market rewards heavy drinking, or that labor market characteristics typical of less developed countries, such as elevated safety risks or job instability, lead to problem drinking. Future research with panel data should explore these possible mechanisms. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Developmental differences in childhood motor coordination predict adult alcohol dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzardo, Ann M; Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Danish Longitudinal Study of Alcoholism has identified a number of early biological indicators that predicted alcohol dependence 30 years later. In light of recent evidence linking deficits of the cerebellum to certain neuropsychiatric disorders often comorbid with alcoholism, we...

  4. Alcohol-use disorder severity predicts first-incidence of depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; van den Brink, W.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Wall, M.M.; Hasin, D.S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Previous studies suggest that alcohol-use disorder severity, defined by the number of criteria met, provides a more informative phenotype than dichotomized DSM-IV diagnostic measures of alcohol use disorders. Therefore, this study examined whether alcohol-use disorder severity predicted

  5. Alcohol-use disorder severity predicts first-incidence of depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; van den Brink, W.; Penninx, B. W. J. H.; Wall, M. M.; Hasin, D. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background. Previous studies suggest that alcohol-use disorder severity, defined by the number of criteria met, provides a more informative phenotype than dichotomized DSM-IV diagnostic measures of alcohol use disorders. Therefore, this study examined whether alcohol-use disorder severity predicted

  6. Mood and implicit alcohol expectancy processes: predicting alcohol consumption in the laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardell, Jeffrey D; Read, Jennifer P; Curtin, John J; Merrill, Jennifer E

    2012-01-01

    Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAE) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli-including mood states-and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, this study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. College students (N = 146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the laboratory, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the laboratory. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak blood alcohol concentration in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the laboratory for females. The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs-as indicated by longer RTs-predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores the need for

  7. Perception and reality: a national evaluation of social norms marketing interventions to reduce college students' heavy alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Henry; Nelson, Toben E; Lee, Jae Eun; Seibring, Mark; Lewis, Catherine; Keeling, Richard P

    2003-07-01

    To evaluate a widely used intervention to reduce college student alcohol use, we studied student drinking patterns at colleges that employed social norms marketing programs and those that did not. We examined responses of students in the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study (CAS) 1997, 1999 and 2001 data sets at 37 colleges that employed social norms marketing programs and at 61 that did not. Information about the students' drinking behavior and their familiarity with social norms marketing messages at their schools was analyzed, as were college administrators' reports about the implementation of social norms marketing campaigns. Schools were grouped on the basis of student reports of exposure to programmatic materials. Trend analyses were conducted on seven standard measures of alcohol consumption, including annual and 30-day use, frequency, usual quantity and volume consumed, heavy episodic use, and drunkenness. Almost half of the CAS colleges sampled adopted social norms programs. Those that did were more likely to have large enrollments, not to be religiously affiliated and to have high rates of alcohol use. No decreases were noted in any of the seven measures of alcohol use at schools with social norms programs, even when student exposure and length of program existence were considered. Increases in measures of monthly alcohol use and total volume consumed, however, were observed at schools employing social norms programs. This study does not provide evidence to support the effectiveness of social norms marketing programs, as currently utilized, in reducing alcohol use among college students.

  8. Alcohol Marketing on Twitter and Instagram: Evidence of Directly Advertising to Youth/Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Bates, Austin M; Olusanya, Olufunto; Vinal, Cystal E; Martin, Emily; Peoples, Janiene E; Jackson, Zachary A; Billinger, Shanaisa A; Yusuf, Aishatu; Cauley, Daunte A; Montano, Javier R

    2016-07-01

    Assess whether alcohol companies restrict youth/adolescent access, interaction, and exposure to their marketing on Twitter and Instagram. Employed five fictitious male and female Twitter (n = 10) and Instagram (n = 10) user profiles aged 13, 15, 17, 19 and/or 21. Using cellular smartphones, we determined whether profiles could (a) interact with advertising content-e.g. retweet, view video or picture content, comment, share URL; and/or (b) follow and directly receive advertising material updates from the official Instagram and Twitter pages of 22 alcohol brands for 30 days. All user profiles could fully access, view, and interact with alcohol industry content posted on Instagram and Twitter. Twitter's age-gate, which restricts access for those under 21, successfully prevented underage profiles from following and subsequently receiving promotional material/updates. The two 21+ profiles collectively received 1836 alcohol-related tweets within 30 days. All Instagram profiles, however, were able to follow all alcohol brand pages and received an average of 362 advertisements within 30 days. The quantity of promotional updates increased throughout the week, reaching their peak on Thursday and Friday. Representatives/controllers of alcohol brand Instagram pages would respond directly to our underage user's comments. The alcohol industry is in violation of their proposed self-regulation guidelines for digital marketing communications on Instagram. While Twitter's age-gate effectively blocked direct to phone updates, unhindered access to post was possible. Everyday our fictitious profiles, even those as young as 13, were bombarded with alcohol industry messages and promotional material directly to their smartphones. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  9. Emotion dysregulation and peer drinking norms uniquely predict alcohol-related problems via motives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Simons, Jeffrey S; Murase, Hanako

    2017-08-01

    This study examined the relationships between emotion dysregulation, peer drinking norms, drinking motives, and alcohol-related outcomes among 435 college students. We examined the mediating roles of drinking motives when predicting alcohol consumption and related problems from the subscales of the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS; Gratz and Roemer, 2004) via negative and positive reinforcement models. First, we hypothesized that individuals who lack in emotion regulation strategies or have difficulties in accepting negative emotions are more likely to drink to cope. Additionally, we hypothesized that individuals who act impulsively or become distracted when upset as well as those with higher peer drinking norms are more likely to drink for social and enhancement motives. The results of the path model indicated that limited access to emotion regulation strategies significantly predicted alcohol-related problems via both depression and anxiety coping motives, but did not predict alcohol consumption. Nonacceptance of emotional responses was not significantly associated with coping motives. Impulsivity had a significant direct relationship with alcohol problems. Difficulty in engaging in goal-directed behaviors predicted both enhancement and social motives, but only enhancement motives in turn predicted consumption. Norms indirectly predicted problems via enhancement motives and consumption. The results indicated that using alcohol to reduce negative or to increase positive emotions increases alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Overall, results advance our understanding of the mechanisms of increased alcohol use and problems among college students. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Interrelationship between family history of alcoholism and generational status in the prediction of alcohol dependence in US Hispanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, K G; Thomas, N S; Kendler, K S

    2017-01-01

    Both a family history of alcoholism and migration-related factors like US v. foreign nativity increase the risk for developing alcohol use disorders in Hispanic Americans. For this study, we integrated these two lines of research to test whether the relationship between familial alcoholism and alcohol dependence changes with successive generations in the United States. Data were from the waves 1 and 2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Subjects self-identified Hispanic ethnicity (N = 4122; n = 1784 first, n = 1169 second, and n = 1169 third or later generation) and reported ever consuming ⩾12 drinks in a 1-year period. A family history of alcoholism was assessed in first- and second-degree relatives. Analyses predicting the number of alcohol dependence symptoms were path models. Alcohol dependence symptoms were associated with a stronger family history of alcoholism and later generational status. There was a significant interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status; the relationship of familial alcoholism with alcohol dependence symptoms increased significantly with successive generations in the United States, more strongly in women than men. Acculturation partially mediated the interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status on alcohol dependence, although not in the expected direction. Familial alcoholism interacted with generational status in predicting alcohol dependence symptoms in US Hispanic drinkers. This relationship suggests that heritability for alcoholism is influenced by a higher-order environmental factor, likely characterized by a relaxing of social restrictions on drinking.

  11. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

    OpenAIRE

    Winpenny, Eleanor Margaret; Marteau, Theresa; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. METHODS: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users...

  12. One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

  13. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-01-01

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse

  14. Internet filters and entry pages do not protect children from online alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Thom, Jeffrey A; Davoren, Sondra; Barrie, Lance

    2014-02-01

    We review programs and policies to prevent children from accessing alcohol marketing online. To update the literature, we present our recent studies that assess (i) in-built barriers to underage access to alcohol brand websites and (ii) commercial internet filters. Alcohol websites typically had poor filter systems for preventing entry of underage persons; only half of the sites required the user to provide a date of birth, and none had any means of preventing users from trying again. Even the most effective commercial internet filters allowed access to one-third of the sites we examined.

  15. Early Adolescent Exposure to Alcohol Advertising and Its Relationship to Underage Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Rebecca L.; Ellickson, Phyllis L.; McCaffrey, Daniel; Hambarsoomians, Katrin

    2009-01-01

    Purpose To determine whether early adolescents who are exposed to alcohol marketing are subsequently more likely to drink. Recent studies suggest that exposure to alcohol ads has a limited influence on drinking in mid-adolescence. Early adolescents may be more vulnerable to alcohol advertising effects. Methods Two in-school surveys of 1,786 South Dakota youth measured exposure to television beer advertisements, alcohol ads in magazines, in-store beer displays and beer concessions, radio-listening time, and ownership of beer promotional items during sixth grade, and drinking intentions and behavior at seventh grade. Multivariate regression equations predicted the two drinking outcomes using the advertising exposure variables and controlling for psychosocial factors and prior drinking. Results After adjusting for covariates, the joint effect of exposure to advertising from all six sources at Grade 6 was strongly predictive of Grade 7 drinking and Grade 7 intentions to drink. Youth in the 75th percentile of alcohol marketing exposure had a predicted probability of drinking that was 50% greater than that of youth in the 25th percentile. Conclusions Although causal effects are uncertain, policy makers should consider limiting a variety of marketing practices that could contribute to drinking in early adolescence. PMID:17531759

  16. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  17. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  18. A simple risk scoring system for prediction of relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Uffe; Hesse, Morten

    2009-01-01

    Predicting relapse after alcoholism treatment can be useful in targeting patients for aftercare services. However, a valid and practical instrument for predicting relapse risk does not exist. Based on a prospective study of alcoholism treatment, we developed the Risk of Alcoholic Relapse Scale (RARS) using items taken from the Addiction Severity Index and some basic demographic information. The RARS was cross-validated using two non-overlapping samples, and tested for its ability to predict relapse across different models of treatment. The RARS predicted relapse to drinking within 6 months after alcoholism treatment in both the original and the validation sample, and in a second validation sample it predicted admission to new treatment 3 years after treatment. The RARS can identify patients at high risk of relapse who need extra aftercare and support after treatment.

  19. Analysing News for Stock Market Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Dwivedi, shivam; Bhatt, Jigar P.

    2018-04-01

    Stock market means the aggregation of all sellers and buyers of stocks representing their ownership claims on the business. To be completely absolute about the investment on these stocks, proper knowledge about them as well as their pricing, for both present and future is very essential. Large amount of data is collected and parsed to obtain this essential information regarding the fluctuations in the stock market. This data can be any news or public opinions in general. Recently, many methods have been used, especially big unstructured data methods to predict the stock market values. We introduce another method of focusing on deriving the best statistical learning model for predicting the future values. The data set used is very large unstructured data collected from an online social platform, commonly known as Quindl. The data from this platform is then linked to a csv fie and cleaned to obtain the essential information for stock market prediction. The method consists of carrying out the NLP (Natural Language Processing) of the data and then making it easier for the system to understand, finds and identifies the correlation in between this data and the stock market fluctuations. The model is implemented using Python Programming Language throughout the entire project to obtain flexibility and convenience of the system.

  20. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stautz, Kaidy; Brown, Kyle G; King, Sarah E; Shemilt, Ian; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-06-09

    Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome), explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes). Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students) found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34). A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students) did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = -0.05, 0.37). Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals) may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1.69 units for females. The generalizability of this finding

  1. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaidy Stautz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Methods Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome, explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes. Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Results Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34. A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = −0.05, 0.37. Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Conclusions Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1

  2. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huishu Zhang

    Full Text Available Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US stock market is a representative of emerging (developed markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  3. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  4. Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-07-01

    We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

  5. Alcoholism and alcohol drinking habits predicted from alcohol dehydrogenase genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolstrup, J.S.; Nordestgaard, Børge; Rasmussen, S.

    2008-01-01

    Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 whi...

  6. Does industry self-regulation protect young people from exposure to alcohol marketing? A review of compliance and complaint studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is considered to be potentially harmful to adolescents. In addition to statutory regulation, industry self-regulation is a common way to protect adolescents from alcohol marketing exposures. This paper critically reviews research designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the alcohol industry's compliance procedures to manage complaints when alcohol marketing is considered to have violated a self-regulatory code. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: PubMed, SCOPUS, PsychINFO and CINAHL. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations, government research centers and national industry advertising associations were also included. The search process yielded three peer-reviewed papers, seven non-peer reviewed reports published by academic institutes and non-profit organizations and 20 industry reports. The evidence indicates that the complaint process lacks standardization across countries, industry adjudicators may be trained inadequately or biased and few complaints are upheld against advertisements pre-determined to contain violations of a self-regulatory code. The current alcohol industry marketing complaint process used in a wide variety of countries may be ineffective at removing potentially harmful content from the market-place. The process of determining the validity of complaints employed by most industry groups appears to suffer from serious conflict of interest and procedural weaknesses that could compromise objective adjudication of even well-documented complaints. In our opinion the current system of self-regulation needs major modifications if it is to serve public health objectives, and more systematic evaluations of the complaint process are needed. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Alcohol in moderation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller, Simone; Lockshin, Larry; Louviere, Jordan J.

    2011-01-01

    products identified, which are jointly purchased with low alcohol wines. The effect of a tax increase on substitution patterns between alcoholic beverages is examined. Methodology: In a discrete choice experiment, based on their last purchase, consumers select one or several different alcoholic beverages......Purpose: The study examines the market potential for low and very low alcohol wine products under two different tax regimes. The penetration and market share of low alcohol wine are estimated under both tax conditions. Consumers’ alcoholic beverage purchase portfolios are analysed and those...... into a purchase basket. An experimental design controlled the beverages’ price variation. Applying an intra-individual research design, respondents’ purchases were simulated under current and increased taxes. Findings: A market potential for low and very low wine products of up to ten percent of the wine market...

  8. Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

    2017-05-31

    Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

  9. Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results...

  10. Predicting Alcohol Misuse Among College Students in the US and South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Yeon; Ahn, Seokhoon; Lim, Tae-Seop

    2015-01-01

    This study examines contributing factors of alcohol misuse among college students in South Korea and the U.S. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) on measurements of alcohol expectancy, alcohol efficacy, and accommodation resulted in social and personal causes for alcohol misuse. Social causes alone predicted alcohol misuse for both countries. Social factors constituted a much stronger predictor of alcohol misuse among South Korean students than among American students. Practical implications for effective deterrence of student binge drinking are discussed.

  11. The sales and marketing practices of English-language internet alcohol vendors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Rebecca S; Schmidt, Allison

    2014-03-01

    This study aimed to fill information gaps about the sales and marketing practices of internet alcohol vendors and their implications for addressing youth access and other legal violations. Further, it aimed to expand the limited scientific literature on internet alcohol sales using systematic survey methods to inform future efforts to regulate this industry and prevent sales to minors. The design was a cross-sectional website content analysis survey. [Not applicable]. A total of 105 internet alcohol vendor websites. Six key content analysis topics were explored: products offered, average prices and proportions of vendors using different promotions, policy statements and methods for age verification, payment and delivery. Websites sell and promote a variety of alcohol products, offered as cheaply as $1.93 for a 750-ml bottle. Vendors rely heavily upon age verification methods that are unlikely to prevent sales to minors. Many vendors advertise shipping of products via methods through which it is illegal or against delivery company policies to transport alcohol, and 99% of vendors accept credit cards. Limiting and enforcing delivery and payment options are types of policy interventions that have been used successfully with internet cigarette vendors that may be applicable to internet alcohol vendors as well. Internet alcohol vendor practices are insufficient to prevent sales to minors, and need further regulation and enforcement of existing policies. Their sales practices are similar to those of internet cigarette vendors prior to regulation, and similar regulatory approaches may be effective in reducing internet alcohol sales to minors. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. Self-Reported Youth and Adult Exposure to Alcohol Marketing in Traditional and Digital Media: Results of a Pilot Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Padon, Alisa; Ross, Craig; Borzekowski, Dina

    2017-03-01

    Alcohol marketing is known to be a significant risk factor for underage drinking. However, little is known about youth and adult exposure to alcohol advertising in digital and social media. This study piloted a comparative assessment of youth and adult recall of exposure to online marketing of alcohol. From September to October 2013, a pilot survey of past 30-day exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content in traditional and digital media was administered to a national sample of 1,192 youth (ages 13 to 20) and 1,124 adults (ages ≥21) using a prerecruited Internet panel maintained by GfK Custom Research. The weighted proportions of youth and adults who reported this exposure were compared by media type and by advertising and promotional content. Youth were more likely than adults to recall exposure to alcohol advertising on television (69.2% vs. 61.9%), radio (24.8% vs. 16.7%), billboards (54.8% vs. 35.4%), and the Internet (29.7% vs. 16.8%), but less likely to recall seeing advertising in magazines (35.7% vs. 36.4%). Youth were also more likely to recall seeing advertisements and pictures on the Internet of celebrities using alcohol (36.1% vs. 20.8%) or wearing clothing promoting alcohol (27.7% vs. 15.9%), and actively respond (i.e., like, share, or post) to alcohol-related content online. Youth report greater exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content than adults in most media, including on the Internet. These findings emphasize the need to assure compliance with voluntary industry standards on the placement of alcohol advertising and the importance of developing better tools for monitoring youth exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly on the Internet. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  13. Evaluating the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M; Adkins, Amy

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science Study, a longitudinal study of students' substance use and emotional health. Participants were e-mailed an online survey that queried campaign readership, perception of peer alcohol use, alcohol consumption, frequency of consumption, and frequency of blackouts. Associations between variables were evaluated using path analysis. We found that campaign readership was associated with more accurate perceptions of peer alcohol use, which, in turn, was associated with self-reported lower number of drinks per sitting and experiencing fewer blackouts. This evaluation supports the use of social norms marketing as a population-level intervention to correct alcohol-use misperceptions and reduce blackouts.

  14. Reward System Activation in Response to Alcohol Advertisements Predicts College Drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Andrea L; Rapuano, Kristina M; Sargent, James D; Heatherton, Todd F; Kelley, William M

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess whether activation of the brain's reward system in response to alcohol advertisements is associated with college drinking. Previous research has established a relationship between exposure to alcohol marketing and underage drinking. Within other appetitive domains, the relationship between cue exposure and behavioral enactment is known to rely on activation of the brain's reward system. However, the relationship between neural activation to alcohol advertisements and alcohol consumption has not been studied in a nondisordered population. In this cross-sectional study, 53 college students (32 women) completed a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan while viewing alcohol, food, and control (car and technology) advertisements. Afterward, they completed a survey about their alcohol consumption (including frequency of drinking, typical number of drinks consumed, and frequency of binge drinking) over the previous month. In 43 participants (24 women) meeting inclusion criteria, viewing alcohol advertisements elicited activation in the left orbitofrontal cortex and bilateral ventral striatum-regions of the reward system that typically activate to other appetitive rewards and relate to consumption behaviors. Moreover, the level of self-reported drinking correlated with the magnitude of activation in the left orbitofrontal cortex. Results suggest that alcohol cues are processed within the reward system in a way that may motivate drinking behavior.

  15. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  16. Global alcohol policy and the alcohol industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Peter

    2009-05-01

    The WHO is preparing its global strategy on alcohol, and, in so doing, has been asked to consult with the alcohol industry on ways it could contribute in reducing the harm done by alcohol. This review asks which is more effective in reducing harm: the regulatory approaches that the industry does not favour; or the educational approaches that it does favour. The current literature overwhelmingly finds that regulatory approaches (including those that manage the price, availability, and marketing of alcohol) reduce the risk of and the experience of alcohol-related harm, whereas educational approaches (including school-based education and public education campaigns) do not, with industry-funded education actually increasing the risk of harm. The alcohol industry should not be involved in making alcohol policy. Its involvement in implementing policy should be restricted to its role as a producer, distributor, and marketer of alcohol. In particular, the alcohol industry should not be involved in educational programmes, as such involvement could actually lead to an increase in harm.

  17. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-06-19

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

  18. Social Marketing Strategies for Campus Prevention of Alcohol and Other Drug Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Robert

    This document sets out one segment of a comprehensive approach intended to assist institutions of higher education in developing and carrying out alcohol abuse and other drug prevention programs. Social marketing is described as a tool of environmental management, that seeks to produce a specified behavior in a target audience. Intended for a…

  19. An Exploration of the Associations of Alcohol-Related Social Media Use and Message Interpretation Outcomes to Problem Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Austin, Bruce W

    2017-07-01

    College students' use of digital communication technology has led to a rapid expansion of digital alcohol marketing efforts. Two surveys (total usable n = 637) were conducted to explore college students' experiences with alcohol-related social media, their decision making related to alcohol use, and their problematic drinking behaviors. Study results indicated that students' use of alcohol-related social media predicted their problem drinking behaviors. In addition, students' wishful identification, perceived desirability, perceived similarity, and normative beliefs predicted their expectancies for drinking alcohol. Finally, students' expectancies for drinking alcohol predicted their problematic drinking behaviors.

  20. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  1. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael King

    Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  2. Prediction of non-polar gas solubilities in water, alcohols and aqueous alcohol solutions by the modified ASOG method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tochigi, K.; Kojima, K.

    1982-07-01

    This study evaluated a technique for predicting gas solubilities based on a modified ASOG group-contribution method, considering water, alcohols, and aqueous alcohol solutions as the solvents. The nonpolar gaseous solutes considered were oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, argon, methane, ethane, ethylene, propane, and butane. Gas solubilities were correlated and predicted for a partial gas pressure of 1 atm and a temperature range of 50/sup 0/-100/sup 0/F (10/sup 0/-40/sup 0/C) in pure solvents, and then predicted for the same pressure and temperature range in mixed solvents using only the solubility data for the pure solvents. The deviations between the observed and predicted solubilities averaged 6.0% in pure systems and 10.2% in mixed solvents.

  3. Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    volume helps management set production levels, but if management increases advertising it will undermine the market . This becomes critical for the DoD...34 Corporate Strategy Board. Gaspoz, C. (2008). "Prediction markets as an innovative way to manage R&D portfolios." CAiSE Doctoral Consortium. Montpellier...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition

  4. Position of Serbia on the international market of alcoholic beverages

    OpenAIRE

    Đorović, Milutin; Stevanović, Simo; Lazić, Verica

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative analysis of the major indicators of both the world and domestic markets of alcoholic beverages. Namely, for the last 21 years, for the observed subperiods, the method of comparative analysis were used to study quantitative and structural differences in the production and trade of analyzed product groups, at both the world and at the level of continents and some countries. The leading manufacturers and flows of international trade and the leading exporters and...

  5. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

  6. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-12-15

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

  7. Hybrid system prediction for the stock market: The case of transitional markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralević Nebojša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the creation and testing of an enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes, including the comparison with the traditional neural network backpropagation model. The objective of the research is to gather information concerning the possibilities of using the enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes focusing on transitional markets. The methodology used involves the integration of fuzzified weights into the neural network. The research results will be beneficial both for the broader investment community and the academia, in terms of the application of the enhanced model in the investment decision-making, as well as in improving the knowledge in this subject matter.

  8. Essays on predictability of emerging markets growth and financial performance

    OpenAIRE

    Banegas, Maria Ayelen

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of fina...

  9. The Alcohol Environment Protocol: A new tool for alcohol policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Morojele, Neo; Williams, Petal Petersen; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Gordon, Ross; Gray-Philip, Gaile; Viet Cuong, Pham; MacKintosh, Anne-Marie; Halliday, Sharon; Railton, Renee; Randerson, Steve; Parry, Charles D H

    2018-01-04

    To report data on the implementation of alcohol policies regarding availability and marketing, and drink driving, along with ratings of enforcement from two small high-income to three high-middle income countries, and one low-middle income country. This study uses the Alcohol Environment Protocol, an International Alcohol Control study research tool, which documents the alcohol policy environment by standardised collection of data from administrative sources, observational studies and interviews with key informants to allow for cross-country comparison and change over time. All countries showed adoption to varying extents of key effective policy approaches outlined in the World Health Organization Global Strategy to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol (2010). High-income countries were more likely to allocate resources to enforcement. However, where enforcement and implementation were high, policy on availability was fairly liberal. Key Informants judged alcohol to be very available in both high- and middle-income countries, reflecting liberal policy in the former and less implementation and enforcement and informal (unlicensed) sale of alcohol in the latter. Marketing was largely unrestricted in all countries and while drink-driving legislation was in place, it was less well enforced in middle-income countries. In countries with fewer resources, alcohol policies are less effective because of lack of implementation and enforcement and, in the case of marketing, lack of regulation. This has implications for the increase in consumption taking place as a result of the expanding distribution and marketing of commercial alcohol and consequent increases in alcohol-related harm. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  10. Predicting Heavy Alcohol Use in College Students: Interactions Among Socialization of Coping, Alcohol Use Onset, and Physiological Reactivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanger, Sarah; Abaied, Jamie; Wagner, Caitlin

    2016-05-01

    Early age at onset of alcohol use is a risk factor for later heavy alcohol use, but some individuals are buffered from this risk. To better understand this process, this study investigated the interactive contributions of parental coping suggestions, skin conductance level reactivity (SCLR), and age at onset of alcohol use on heavy alcohol use in college students. College students (N = 146, 77% female) reported their age at onset of alcohol use, frequency of recent heavy alcohol use, and their parents' coping suggestions; SCLR was monitored as participants completed a laboratory challenge task. In addition, students' parents (N = 73, 77% mothers) reported on their coping suggestions. Results indicated that in the presence of physiological risk only (blunted SCLR, late age at onset of alcohol use), higher frequencies of engagement and disengagement parental coping suggestions were protective against heavy alcohol use in college students. However, if both risk factors were present (blunted SCLR, early age at onset of alcohol use), more engagement suggestions predicted more heavy alcohol use among college students. These findings extend previous findings on the impact of parenting on heavy alcohol use among college students and provide novel evidence for the moderating role of sympathetic stress reactivity.

  11. The marketing potential of corporate social responsibility activities: the case of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantani, Daniela; Peltzer, Raquel; Cremonte, Mariana; Robaina, Katherine; Babor, Thomas; Pinsky, Ilana

    2017-01-01

    The aims were to: (1) identify, monitor and analyse the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and (2) examine whether the alcohol industry is using these actions to market their products and brands. Nine health experts from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay conducted a content analysis of 218 CSR activities using a standardized protocol. A content rating procedure was used to evaluate the marketing potential of CSR activities as well as their probable population reach and effectiveness. The LEAD procedure (longitudinal, expert and all data) was applied to verify the accuracy of industry-reported descriptions. A total of 55.8% of the actions were found to have a marketing potential, based on evidence that they are likely to promote brands and products. Actions with marketing potential were more likely to reach a larger audience than actions classified with no marketing potential. Most actions did not fit into any category recommended by the World Health Organization; 50% of the actions involving classroom and college education for young people were found to have marketing potential; 62.3% were classified as meeting the definition of risk management CSR. Alcohol industry Corporate Social Responsibility activities in Latin America and the Caribbean appear to have a strategic marketing role beyond their stated philanthropic and public health purpose. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. Marketing messages in food and alcohol magazine advertisements, variations across type and nutritional content of promoted products: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, A; Burke, W; Adams, J

    2014-09-01

    'Marketing messages' are the themes used in advertisements to promote products. We explored the frequency of different marketing messages used in food and alcohol advertisements in UK women's magazines and associations with the type and nutritional content of products promoted. All advertisements for food and alcohol in 108 issues of popular UK monthly women's magazines were identified and text-based marketing messages classified using a bespoke coding framework. This information was linked to existing data on the type (i.e. food group) and nutritional content of advertised products. A total of 2 687 marketing messages were identified in 726 advertisements. Consumer messages such as 'taste' and 'quality' were most frequently found. Marketing messages used in advertisements for food and alcohol were notably different. The relationship between type and nutritional content of products advertised and marketing messages used was not intuitive from a consumer perspective: advertisements for foods 'high in fat and/or sugar' were less likely to use messages related to health, but more likely to use messages emphasizing reduced amounts of specific nutrients. Almost all advertisements included consumer-related marketing messages. Marketing messages used were not always congruent with the type or nutritional content of advertised products. These findings should be considered when developing policy. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  14. Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Serrano Iglesias

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. Materials and Methods: The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. Results: The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0–55 kcal/0–13 g for soft drinks; 2–60 kcal/0–14.5 g for energy drinks; 24–31 kcal/5.8–7.5 g for sports drinks; 1–32 kcal/0–7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14–69 kcal/2.6–17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43–78 kcal/6.1–14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33–88 kcal/3.6–14 g for dairy drinks. Conclusion: The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day.

  15. ALCOHOL I

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite the increase in alcohol marketing activities by the transnational alcohol corporations in Nigeria .... were recorded with a digital device with ..... era (i.e., before alcohol industry was es- tablished in ..... university student drinking: A na-.

  16. Stock market prediction using technical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradić-Martinović Aleksandra

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis (TA is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators. It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

  17. STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING CLUSTERING WITH META-HEURISTIC APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Prasanna, S.; Ezhilmaran, D.

    2015-01-01

    Various examinations are performed to predict the stock values, yet not many points at assessing the predictability of the direction of stock index movement. Stock market prediction with data mining method is a standout amongst the most paramount issues to be researched and it is one of the interesting issues of stock market research over several decades. The approach of advanced data mining tools and refined database innovations has empowered specialists to handle the immense measure of data...

  18. STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING CLUSTERING WITH META-HEURISTIC APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Prasanna, S.; Ezhilmaran, D.

    2014-01-01

    Various examinations are performed to predict the stock values, yet not many points at assessing the predictability of the direction of stock index movement. Stock market prediction with data mining method is a standout amongst the most paramount issues to be researched and it is one of the interesting issues of stock market research over several decades. The approach of advanced data mining tools and refined database innovations has empowered specialists to handle the immense measure of data...

  19. A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

    2013-01-24

    Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. ACTRN12612000384853.

  20. Tackling alcohol misuse: purchasing patterns affected by minimum pricing for alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludbrook, Anne; Petrie, Dennis; McKenzie, Lynda; Farrar, Shelley

    2012-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is associated with a range of health and social harms that increase with the level of consumption. Policy makers are interested in effective and cost-effective interventions to reduce alcohol consumption and associated harms. Economic theory and research evidence demonstrate that increasing price is effective at the population level. Price interventions that target heavier consumers of alcohol may be more effective at reducing alcohol-related harms with less impact on moderate consumers. Minimum pricing per unit of alcohol has been proposed on this basis but concerns have been expressed that 'moderate drinkers of modest means' will be unfairly penalized. If those on low incomes are disproportionately affected by a policy that removes very cheap alcohol from the market, the policy could be regressive. The effect on households' budgets will depend on who currently purchases cheaper products and the extent to which the resulting changes in prices will impact on their demand for alcohol. This paper focuses on the first of these points. This paper aims to identify patterns of purchasing of cheap off-trade alcohol products, focusing on income and the level of all alcohol purchased. Three years (2006-08) of UK household survey data were used. The Expenditure and Food Survey provides comprehensive 2-week data on household expenditure. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between the purchase of cheap off-trade alcohol, household income levels and whether the household level of alcohol purchasing is categorized as moderate, hazardous or harmful, while controlling for other household and non-household characteristics. Predicted probabilities and quantities for cheap alcohol purchasing patterns were generated for all households. The descriptive statistics and regression analyses indicate that low-income households are not the predominant purchasers of any alcohol or even of cheap alcohol. Of those who do purchase off-trade alcohol

  1. Impulsive suicide attempts predict post-treatment relapse in alcohol-dependent patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojnar, Marcin; Ilgen, Mark A; Jakubczyk, Andrzej; Wnorowska, Anna; Klimkiewicz, Anna; Brower, Kirk J

    2008-10-01

    The present study was designed to examine the influence of suicidality on relapse in alcohol-dependent patients. Specifically, a lifetime suicide attempt at baseline was used to predict relapse in the year after treatment. Also, the unique contribution of impulsive suicide attempts was examined. A total of 154 patients with alcohol dependence, consecutively admitted to four addiction treatment facilities in Warsaw, Poland participated in the study. Of the 154 eligible patients, 118 (76.6%) completed a standardized follow-up assessment at 12 months. Previous suicide attempts were common in adults treated for alcohol dependence with 43% patients in the present sample reporting an attempt at some point during their lifetime. Additionally, more than 62% of those with a lifetime suicide attempt reported making an impulsive attempt. Lifetime suicide attempts were not associated with post-treatment relapse (chi-square=2.37, d.f.=1, p=0.124). However, impulsive suicide attempts strongly predicted relapse (OR=2.81, 95% CI=1.13-6.95, p=0.026) and time to relapse (OR=2.10, 95% CI=1.18-3.74, p=0.012) even after adjusting for other measures of baseline psychopathology, depression, impulsivity, hopelessness and alcohol use severity. This study is the first to document the relationship between pre-treatment impulsive suicide attempts and higher likelihood of post-treatment relapse in alcohol-dependent patents. Clinicians should routinely conduct an assessment for previous suicide attempts in patients with alcohol use disorders, and when impulsive suicidality is reported, they should recognize the increased risk for relapse and formulate their patients' treatment plans accordingly with the goals of reducing both alcoholic relapse and suicide rates.

  2. Toward Predicting Popularity of Social Marketing Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi

    Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.

  3. Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

  5. When are they old enough to drink? Outcomes of an Australian social marketing intervention targeting alcohol initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Andrews, Kelly; Francis, Kate L; Akram, Muhammad

    2018-04-01

    This paper reports on the evaluation of an Australian whole-of-community social marketing intervention targeting social norms, which aimed to reduce inflated perceptions of the prevalence of underage drinking and increase the age at which alcohol initiation is considered acceptable. A community-wide intervention was delivered in a single community over a period of 2 years, targeting adolescents, parents and community members. Pre-and post-intervention computer-assisted telephone interview surveys were conducted in the intervention and a matched comparison (control) community. A total of 417 respondents completed both surveys (215 in the intervention community and 202 in the control community). The intervention community saw an increase of 6 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable for young people to have a sip/taste of alcohol and 5 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable to have weak/watered down alcohol. Furthermore, there was a reduction in the perception of the prevalence of alcohol consumption by young people to a level consistent with actual underage drinking rates. In comparison, the control community saw no change in any of these variables. This study provides preliminary evidence that a whole-of-community social marketing intervention can change perceptions of the prevalence, and acceptability, of underage drinking. Given the central role of social norms in decisions regarding alcohol consumption, these changes have the potential to reduce parental supply and thus underage drinking. © 2018 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  6. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  7. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    OpenAIRE

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-01-01

    Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and...

  8. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

    2017-01-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

  9. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  10. Digital Marketing- A Study on Internet Advertising, SMS Advertising and Blog with emphasis on Alcohol Brands in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Wai Fong

    2007-01-01

    The dynamic evolution of technologies offers boundless opportunities for marketing communication, especially for alcohol brands in Malaysia which are in the “semi-dark market” environment and are restricted from mass advertising, the introduction of digital marketing certainly gave rise to a new ray of hope. The aim of this study is to examine the consumers’ response toward the three marketing communication choices i.e. Internet ad, SMS ad and blog and recommend the method to capitalise on th...

  11. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  12. Exposure to online alcohol marketing and adolescents' drinking : A cross-sectional study in four European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordi F.; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in

  13. Exposure to online alcohol marketing and adolescents' drinking: A cross-sectional study in four European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, A. de; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Anderson, P.D.; Bujalski, M.; Gosselt, J.; Schreckenberg, D.; Wohtge, J.; Leeuw, R.N.H. de

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in

  14. Polygenic scores predict alcohol problems in an independent sample and show moderation by the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatore, Jessica E; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C; Evans, David M; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M

    2014-04-10

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems-derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)-predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07-0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  15. Polygenic Scores Predict Alcohol Problems in an Independent Sample and Show Moderation by the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Salvatore

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems—derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female—predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14 in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female. We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07–0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01. Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b, p-values (p, and percent of variance (R2 accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively. Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  16. Patient and practitioner characteristics predict brief alcohol intervention in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, E F; Heather, N; Brodie, J; Lock, C A; McAvoy, B R

    2001-10-01

    The effectiveness of an evidence-based health care intervention depends on it being delivered consistently to appropriate patients. Brief alcohol intervention is known to be effective at reducing excessive drinking and its concomitant health and social problems. However, a recent implementation trial reported partial delivery of brief alcohol intervention by general practitioners (GPs) which is likely to have reduced its impact. To investigate patient-practitioner characteristics influencing brief alcohol intervention in primary care. Cross-sectional analysis of 12,814 completed Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) screening questionnaires. Eighty-four GPs who had implemented a brief alcohol intervention programme in a previous trial based in the Northeast of England. GPs were requested to screen all adults (aged over 16 years) presenting to their surgery and follow a structured protocol to give a brief intervention (five minutes of advice plus an information booklet) to all 'risk' drinkers. Anonymized carbon copies of the screening questionnaire were collected from all practices after a three-month implementation period. Although AUDIT identified 4080 'risk' drinkers, only 2043 (50%) received brief intervention. Risk drinkers that were most likely to receive brief intervention were males (58%), unemployed (61%), and technically-trained patients (55%). Risk drinkers that were least likely to receive brief intervention were females (44%), students (38%), and university educated patients (46%). Logistic regression modelling showed that patients' risk status was the most influential predictor of brief intervention. Also, GPs' experience of relevant training and longer average practice consultations predicted brief intervention. However, personal characteristics relating to patients and GPs also predicted brief intervention in routine practice. Interpersonal factors relating to patients and practitioners contributed to the selective provision of brief

  17. Effects of alcohol advertising exposure on drinking among youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Leslie B; Milici, Frances Fleming; Slater, Michael; Sun, Helen; Strizhakova, Yuliya

    2006-01-01

    To test whether alcohol advertising expenditures and the degree of exposure to alcohol advertisements affect alcohol consumption by youth. Longitudinal panel using telephone surveys. Households in 24 US media markets, April 1999 to February 2001. Individuals aged 15 to 26 years were randomly sampled within households and households within media markets. Markets were systematically selected from the top 75 media markets, representing 79% of the US population. The baseline refusal rate was 24%. Sample sizes per wave were 1872, 1173, 787, and 588. Data on alcohol advertising expenditures on television, radio, billboards, and newspapers were collected. Market alcohol advertising expenditures per capita and self-reported alcohol advertising exposure in the prior month. Self-reported number of alcoholic drinks consumed in the prior month. Youth who saw more alcohol advertisements on average drank more (each additional advertisement seen increased the number of drinks consumed by 1% [event rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.02]). Youth in markets with greater alcohol advertising expenditures drank more (each additional dollar spent per capita raised the number of drinks consumed by 3% [event rate ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.05]). Examining only youth younger than the legal drinking age of 21 years, alcohol advertisement exposure and expenditures still related to drinking. Youth in markets with more alcohol advertisements showed increases in drinking levels into their late 20s, but drinking plateaued in the early 20s for youth in markets with fewer advertisements. Control variables included age, gender, ethnicity, high school or college enrollment, and alcohol sales. Alcohol advertising contributes to increased drinking among youth.

  18. The global alcohol industry: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H

    2009-02-01

    To describe the globalized sector of the alcoholic beverage industry, including its size, principal actors and activities. Market research firms and business journalism are the primary sources for information about the global alcohol industry, and are used to profile the size and membership of the three main industry sectors of beer, distilled spirits and wine. Branded alcoholic beverages are approximately 38% of recorded alcohol consumption world-wide. Producers of these beverages tend to be large multi-national corporations reliant on marketing for their survival. Marketing activities include traditional advertising as well as numerous other activities, such as new product development, product placement and the creation and promotion of social responsibility programs, messages and organizations. The global alcohol industry is highly concentrated and innovative. There is relatively little public health research evaluating the impact of its many marketing activities.

  19. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  20. Prediction of gas hold-up for alcohol solutions in a draft-tube bubble column

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albijanić Boris V.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction of the overall gas hold-up (εg, in the diluted solutions of C -C alcohols in draft - tube bubble column, by applying several newly proposed correlations and some of the well-known equations. Experiments were carried out in a column, consisting of two coaxial glass tubes, with a single sparger. Gas phase was air, while the liquid phases were aqueous solutions of alcohols, in concentrations of 0.5% w/w and 1% w/w. Overall gas hold-up was determined by applying volume expansion technique. The following order for εg values was observed: water < methanol < ethanol < n-propanol < n-butanol. Concentration of the applied alcohol appeared to be less significant than the .sort of alcohol itself. The best newly proposed correlation enables predicting of our experimental data with the average square deviation of empirical formula: s2=0.58 E-04.

  1. Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

    2016-02-01

    Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  2. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  3. International codes and agreements to restrict the promotion of harmful products can hold lessons for the control of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Jane; Lobstein, Tim; Godfrey, Fiona; Johns, Paula; Brookes, Chris; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims The 2011 UN Summit on Non-Communicable Disease failed to call for global action on alcohol marketing despite calls in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-20 to restrict or ban alcohol advertising. In this paper we ask what it might take to match the global approach to tobacco enshrined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and suggest that public health advocates can learn from the development of the FCTC and the Code of Marketing on infant formula milks and the recent recommendations on restricting food marketing to children. Methods Narrative review of qualitative accounts of the processes that created and monitor existing codes and treaties to restrict the marketing of consumer products, specifically breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco. Findings The development of treaties and codes for market restrictions include: (i) evidence of a public health crisis; (ii) the cost of inaction; (iii) civil society advocacy; (iv) the building of capacity; (v) the management of conflicting interests in policy development; and (vi) the need to consider monitoring and accountability to ensure compliance. Conclusion International public health treaties and codes provide an umbrella under which national governments can strengthen their own legislation, assisted by technical support from international agencies and non-governmental organizations. Three examples of international agreements, those for breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco, can provide lessons for the public health community to make progress on alcohol controls. Lessons include stronger alliances of advocates and health professionals and better tools and capacity to monitor and report current marketing practices and trends. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

  5. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foxcroft David R

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between

  6. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

    2009-02-06

    The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and

  7. Policy-relevant behaviours predict heavier drinking and mediate the relationship with age, gender and education status: Analysis from the International Alcohol Control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Parry, Charles D H; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Piazza, Marina

    2018-02-21

    To investigate behaviours related to four alcohol policy variables (policy-relevant behaviours) and demographic variables in relation to typical quantities of alcohol consumed on-premise in six International Alcohol Control study countries. General population surveys with drinkers using a comparable survey instrument and data analysed using path analysis in an overall model and for each country. typical quantities per occasion consumed on-premise; gender, age; years of education, prices paid, time of purchase, time to access alcohol and liking for alcohol advertisements. In the overall model younger people, males and those with fewer years of education consumed larger typical quantities. Overall lower prices paid, later time of purchase and liking for alcohol ads predicted consuming larger typical quantities; this was found in the high-income countries, less consistently in the high-middle-income countries and not in the low middle-income country. Three policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase, liking for alcohol ads) mediated the relationships between age, gender, education and consumption in high-income countries. International Alcohol Control survey data showed a relationship between policy-relevant behaviours and typical quantities consumed and support the likely effect of policy change (trading hours, price and restrictions on marketing) on heavier drinking. The path analysis also revealed policy-relevant behaviours were significant mediating variables between the effect of age, gender and educational status on consumption. However, this relationship is clearest in high-income countries. Further research is required to understand better how circumstances in low-middle-income countries impact effects of policies. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  8. Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    We analyze a binary prediction market in which traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and private information. Realistically, we assume that traders are allowed to invest a limited amount of money (or have decreasing absolute risk aversion). We show that the rational expectations equilibrium...... price underreacts to information. When favorable information to an event is available and is revealed by the market, the price increases and this forces optimists to reduce the number of assets they can (or want to) buy. For the market to equilibrate, the price must increase less than a posterior belief...

  9. Can We Envision a Bettor's Guide to Climate Prediction Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trexler, M.

    2017-12-01

    It's one thing to set up a climate prediction market, it's another to find enough informed traders to make the market work. Climate bets could range widely, from purely scientific or atmospheric metrics, to bets that involve the interplay of science, policy, economic, and behavioral outcomes. For a topic as complex and politicized as climate change, a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions could substantially expand and diversify the pool of individuals trading in the market, increasing both its liquidity and decision-support value. The Climate Web is an on-line and publically accessible Beta version of such a Bettor's Guide, implementing the knowledge management adage: "if only we knew what we know." The Climate Web not only curates the key literature, news coverage, and websites relating to more than 100 climate topics, from extreme event exceedance curves to climate economics to climate risk scenarios, it extracts and links together thousands of ideas and graphics across all of those topics. The Climate Web integrates the many disciplinary silos that characterize today's often dysfunctional climate policy conversations, allowing rapid cross-silo exploration and understanding. As a Bettor's Guide it would allow prediction market traders to better research and understand their potential bets, and to quickly survey key thinking and uncertainties relating to those bets. The availability of such a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions should make traders willing to place more bets than they otherwise would, and should facilitate higher quality betting. The presentation will introduce the knowledge management dimensions and challenges of climate prediction markets, and introduce the Climate Web as one solution to those challenges.

  10. Marketing and alcohol-related traffic fatalities: impact of alcohol advertising targeting minors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ryan C; Geller, E Scott

    2009-10-01

    Alcohol-related youth traffic fatalities continue as a major public-health concern. While state and federal laws can be useful in tackling this problem, the efficacy of many laws has not been empirically demonstrated. We examined the impact of state laws prohibiting alcohol advertising to target minors. Using statistics obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), youth alcohol-related, single-vehicle, driver traffic fatalities were compared by state as a function of whether the state has a law prohibiting alcohol advertising that targets minors. Overall, states possessing this law experienced 32.9% fewer of the above specified traffic fatalities. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that not only are youth drinking rates affected by alcohol advertisements targeting youth, but also drink-driving behaviors. Indeed, we estimate that if this type of legislation were adopted in the 26 states that do not prohibit targeting of minors with alcohol advertising, then 400 youth lives could be saved annually.

  11. Exploring College Students' Use of General and Alcohol-Related Social Media and Their Associations with Alcohol-Related Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W.; Pinkleton, Bruce E.; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors.…

  12. Theoretical bases analysis of scientific prediction on marketing principles

    OpenAIRE

    A.S. Rosohata

    2012-01-01

    The article presents an overview categorical apparatus of scientific predictions and theoretical foundations results of scientific forecasting. They are integral part of effective management of economic activities. The approaches to the prediction of scientists in different fields of Social science and the categories modification of scientific prediction, based on principles of marketing are proposed.

  13. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to describe concepts and assumptions of predictive marketing analytics in reference to decision making. In particular, we highlight issues pertaining to the importance of data and the modern approach to data analysis and processing with the purpose of solving real marketing problems that companies encounter in business. Methodology: In this paper authors provide two study cases showing how, and to what extent predictive marketing analytics work can be useful in practice e.g., investigation of the marketing environment. The two cases are based on organizations operating mainly on Web site domain. The fi rst part of this article, begins a discussion with the explanation of a general idea of predictive marketing analytics. The second part runs through opportunities it creates for companies in the process of building strong competitive advantage in the market. The paper article ends with a brief comparison of predictive analytics versus traditional marketing-mix analysis. Findings: Analytics play an extremely important role in the current process of business management based on planning, organizing, implementing and controlling marketing activities. Predictive analytics provides the actual and current picture of the external environment. They also explain what problems are faced with the company in business activities. Analytics tailor marketing solutions to the right time and place at minimum costs. In fact they control the effi ciency and simultaneously increases the effectiveness of the firm. Practical implications: Based on the study cases comparing two enterprises carrying business activities in different areas, one can say that predictive analytics has far more been embraces extensively than classical marketing-mix analyses. The predictive approach yields greater speed of data collection and analysis, stronger predictive accuracy, better obtained competitor data, and more transparent models where one can

  14. Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Tyng; Cooper, Hannah L F; Windle, Michael; Haardörfer, Regine; Crawford, Natalie D; Chen, Wei J; Chen, Chuan-Yu

    2016-12-01

    Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old) and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old) from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source) compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT) and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the relationship between district-level violent

  15. Factors Predictive of Alcohol Consumption among Elderly People in a Rural Community: A Case Study in Phayao Province Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hongthong, D.; Wongchaiya, P.; Somrongthong, R.; Kumar, R.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Alcohol consumption is recognized as a public health issue. Study objectives were to identify factors predictive of alcohol consumption among elderly people in Phayao province Thailand, where there was high prevalence of alcohol consumption. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. Four hundred elderly people participated in a survey. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the factors predictive of alcohol consumption among the study subjects. Results: One thirds of elderly (31.7 percent) had consumed alcohol in their lifetime, and (15.7 percent) of them were current drinkers. Following univariate analysis, seven factors included gender, working, sickness, smoking, quality of life (QOL), daily activities and economic recession were identified as being significantly associated with drinking (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed four factors to be predictive of alcohol among elderly people: gender (OR=6.02, 95 percent CI=3.58-10.13), smoking (OR=4.34, 95 percent CI=2.57-7.34), economic recession (OR=2.79, 95 percent, CI=1.66-4.71), and QOL (OR=1.86, 95 percent, CI=1.09-3.16). Conclusion: Gender (male) and smoking were strongly predictive factors of elderly alcohol consumption. Hence, an effort to reduce alcohol consumption should be placed on male elderly and those who smoke. (author)

  16. The Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment: a scoring system to predict the risk of relapse to any alcohol use after liver transplant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigue, James R; Hanto, Douglas W; Curry, Michael P

    2013-12-01

    Alcohol relapse after liver transplant heightens concern about recurrent disease, nonadherence to the immunosuppression regimen, and death. To develop a scoring system to stratify risk of alcohol relapse after liver transplant. Retrospective medical record review. All adult liver transplants performed from May 2002 to February 2011 at a single center in the United States. The incidence of return to any alcohol consumption after liver transplant. Thirty-four percent (40/118) of patients with a history of alcohol abuse/dependency relapsed to use of any alcohol after liver transplant. Nine of 25 hypothesized risk factors were predictive of alcohol relapse after liver transplant: absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, tobacco dependence, continued alcohol use after liver disease diagnosis, low motivation for alcohol treatment, poor stress management skills, no rehabilitation relationship, limited social support, lack of nonmedical behavioral consequences, and continued engagement in social activities with alcohol present. Each independent predictor was assigned an Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA) risk value of 1 point, and patients were classified into 1 of 4 groups by ARRA score: ARRA I = 0, ARRA II = 1 to 3, ARRA III = 4 to 6, and ARRA IV = 7 to 9. Patients in the 2 higher ARRA classifications had significantly higher rates of alcohol relapse and were more likely to return to pretransplant levels of drinking. Alcohol relapse rates are moderately high after liver transplant. The ARRA is a valid and practical tool for identifying pretransplant patients with alcohol abuse or dependency at elevated risk of any alcohol use after liver transplant.

  17. An intense Nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...

  18. [The Collage Impression Scoring Scale (CIISS) may help predict sobriety for alcoholics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itoh, Mitsuru; Ishii, Takayoshi

    2009-08-01

    The Collage Impression Scoring Scale (CISS; Imamura, 2004) was used by 54 raters to score collages made by 24 alcoholics on admission to the hospital and at discharge. The CISS contains three factors: stability, expression and creativity. Comparisons using paired t-tests showed that the collages made at discharge had lower scores on the three CISS factors than the collages made on admission. The results for 11 alcoholics, who were followed for six months after discharge, showed that the scores for CISS factors for the abstinent group were lower than those for the relapsed drinking group. The abstinent group showed more anxiety than the relapsed drinking group. This result suggests that the abstinent alcoholics'anxieties were projected onto the collages because they were facing their internal problems more seriously. Thus the CISS was effective as a predictive index for alcoholics who maintain sobriety.

  19. Friends' Alcohol-Related Social Networking Site Activity Predicts Escalations in Adolescent Drinking: Mediation by Peer Norms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesi, Jacqueline; Rothenberg, W Andrew; Hussong, Andrea M; Jackson, Kristina M

    2017-06-01

    Adolescents' increased use of social networking sites (SNS) coincides with a developmental period of heightened risk for alcohol use initiation. However, little is known regarding associations between adolescents' SNS use and drinking initiation nor the mechanisms of this association. This study examined longitudinal associations among adolescents' exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS postings, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms, and initiation of drinking behaviors. Participants were 658 high-school students who reported on posting of alcohol-related SNS content by self and friends, alcohol-related injunctive norms, and other developmental risk factors for alcohol use at two time points, 1 year apart. Participants also reported on initiation of three drinking behaviors: consuming a full drink, becoming drunk, and heavy episodic drinking (three or more drinks per occasion). Probit regression analyses were used to predict initiation of drinking behaviors from exposure to alcohol-related SNS content. Path analyses examined mediation of this association by peer injunctive norms. Exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS content predicted adolescents' initiation of drinking and heavy episodic drinking 1 year later, controlling for demographic and known developmental risk factors for alcohol use (i.e., parental monitoring and peer orientation). In addition, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms statistically mediated the relationship between alcohol-related SNS exposure and each drinking milestone. Results suggest that social media plays a unique role in contributing to peer influence processes surrounding alcohol use and highlight the need for future investigative and preventive efforts to account for adolescents' changing social environments. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Abusive alcohol consumption among adolescents: a predictive model for maximizing early detection and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas Ferreira, M; de Moraes, C L; Braga, J U; Reichenheim, M E; da Veiga, G V

    2018-03-17

    To present a predictive model of alcohol abuse among adolescents based on prevalence projections in various population subgroups. Cross-sectional study. The sample consisted of 785 adolescents enrolled in the second year of high school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Alcohol consumption was assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Socio-economic, demographic, family, individuals, and school-related variables were examined as potential predictors. The logit model was used to estimate the prevalence projections. Model fitting was examined in relation to the observed data set, and in a subset, that was generated from 200 subsamples of individuals via a bootstrap process using general fit estimators, discrimination, and calibration measures. About 25.5% of the adolescents were classified as positive for alcohol abuse. Being male, being 17-19 years old, not living with mothers, presenting symptoms suggestive of binge eating, having used a strategy of weight reduction in the last 3 months, and, especially, being a victim of family violence were important predictors of abusive consumption of alcohol. While the model's prevalence projection in the absence of these features was 8%, it reaches 68% in the presence of all predictors. Knowledge of predictive characteristics of alcohol abuse is essential for screening, early detection of positive cases, and establishing interventions to reduce consumption among adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Nature of events and alcohol-related content in marketing materials at a university freshers' fair: a summative content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, A; Fleming, K M; Szatkowski, L; Bains, M

    2017-12-15

    The transition to university is a potentially influential time upon students' drinking behaviour. This study explored the nature of activities and alcohol-related content in marketing materials from student-led societies and local businesses provided to students, at a university freshers' fair in the UK. All marketing materials handed out at the fair were collected across the 5-day event in September 2015. Written and visual content was analysed using a summative qualitative content analysis. Most student-led societies promoted social events they were hosting (n = 530), most of which took place in a drinking venue or referred to drinking (n = 335). Only four explicitly alcohol-free events were promoted. Student-led societies also promoted activities relating to their interest, e.g. sports training (n = 519), a small proportion of which had references to drinking and drinking venues (n = 54). Three societies provided promotional handouts from local bars or nightclubs. Local bars, pubs and nightclubs promoted events they hosted (n = 81) as well as alcoholic drink promotions (n = 79) and alcohol branded advertising (n = 22), albeit infrequently for the latter. In the first week of university, students are exposed to alcohol-related events, promotions and advertising, which may act as an incentive to participate in drinking. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  3. Do Culture-based Segments Predict Selection of Market Strategy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Jadczaková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Academists and practitioners have already acknowledged the importance of unobservable segmentation bases (such as psychographics yet still focusing on how well these bases are capable of describing relevant segments (the identifiability criterion rather than on how precisely these segments can predict (the predictability criterion. Therefore, this paper intends to add a debate to this topic by exploring whether culture-based segments do account for a selection of market strategy. To do so, a set of market strategy variables over a sample of 251 manufacturing firms was first regressed on a set of 19 cultural variables using canonical correlation analysis. Having found significant relationship in the first canonical function, it was further examined by means of correspondence analysis which cultural segments – if any – are linked to which market strategies. However, as correspondence analysis failed to find a significant relationship, it may be concluded that business culture might relate to the adoption of market strategy but not to the cultural groupings presented in the paper.

  4. Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

    2015-08-11

    The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

  5. Alcohol promotions in Australian supermarket catalogues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Robyn; Stafford, Julia; Pierce, Hannah; Daube, Mike

    2017-07-01

    In Australia, most alcohol is sold as packaged liquor from off-premises retailers, a market increasingly dominated by supermarket chains. Competition between retailers may encourage marketing approaches, for example, discounting, that evidence indicates contribute to alcohol-related harms. This research documented the nature and variety of promotional methods used by two major supermarket retailers to promote alcohol products in their supermarket catalogues. Weekly catalogues from the two largest Australian supermarket chains were reviewed for alcohol-related content over 12 months. Alcohol promotions were assessed for promotion type, product type, number of standard drinks, purchase price and price/standard drink. Each store catalogue included, on average, 13 alcohol promotions/week, with price-based promotions most common. Forty-five percent of promotions required the purchase of multiple alcohol items. Wine was the most frequently promoted product (44%), followed by beer (24%) and spirits (18%). Most (99%) wine cask (2-5 L container) promotions required multiple (two to three) casks to be purchased. The average number of standard drinks required to be purchased to participate in catalogue promotions was 31.7 (SD = 24.9; median = 23.1). The median price per standard drink was $1.49 (range $0.19-$9.81). Cask wines had the lowest cost per standard drink across all product types. Supermarket catalogues' emphasis on low prices/high volumes of alcohol reflects that retailers are taking advantage of limited restrictions on off-premise sales and promotion, which allow them to approach market competition in ways that may increase alcohol-related harms in consumers. Regulation of alcohol marketing should address retailer catalogue promotions. [Johnston R, Stafford J, Pierce H, Daube M. Alcohol promotions in Australian supermarket catalogues. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:456-463]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  6. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use From Preferential Music Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (pmusic (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Predicting women's alcohol risk-taking while abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Gabie; Klein, Sarah

    2010-05-01

    Numerous studies have examined risk factors that are associated with heavy alcohol use; however, much of this research has not addressed factors that specifically relate to women's alcohol use. The current study has extended the previous literature on women's alcohol-use behavior by examining factors associated with risky drinking in young women traveling abroad (n = 55). Using a pretest-posttest design, we examined the influence of disinhibition sensation-seeking and endorsement of social enhancement alcohol expectancies in relation to participation in risky alcohol use while abroad for three weeks. Analyses confirmed that disinhibition sensation-seeking and social enhancement alcohol expectancies were associated with participation in risky alcohol-use behaviors while abroad (controlling for alcohol-use at the pretest). Analysis of qualitative data reinforced the importance of social facilitation in women's alcohol risk-taking. Participants' qualitative data also emphasized characteristics of situational disinhibition relating to travel as well as culturally-specific motivations for alcohol-use behaviors. Further research examining women's personal need for disinhibition and the role of situational disinhibition in motivating alcohol risk-taking is warranted. In addition, the current findings suggest that interventions focusing on the connections between alcohol use and enhancement of social relationships and the potential isolating effects of non-use are necessary.

  8. Alcohol outlet densities and alcohol price: the British Columbia experiment in the partial privatization of alcohol sales off-premise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treno, Andrew J; Ponicki, William R; Stockwell, Tim; Macdonald, Scott; Gruenewald, Paul J; Zhao, Jinhui; Martin, Gina; Greer, Alissa

    2013-05-01

    Alcohol beverage prices or taxes have been shown to be related to alcohol sales and use and related problems. What is not clear are the mechanisms underlying these relationships. This study examines the relationship between alcohol outlet density under conditions of the partial privatization of off-premise consumption in British Columbia (BC) occurring over the past decade. Two hypotheses are tested. First, reflecting basic supply-demand principles, greater geographic densities of alcohol outlets will be directly related to reductions in beverage prices in response to greater competition. Second, reflecting the effects of niche marketing and resulting market stratification, increased densities of private liquor stores will be especially related to reductions in beverage prices within this outlet category. Data were collected from: (i) a survey of BC private store prices and practices, (ii) alcohol outlet location information, and (iii) data on demographic characteristics. Multilevel models examine the relationships between prices at individual private liquor stores and the densities of government liquor stores, private liquor stores, bars, and restaurants, controlling for background demographics and geographic unit level effects. Spatial dependencies were also examined. Increased densities of private liquor stores were associated with lower mean prices of beer and all alcohol aggregated across brands at the store level. There appeared to be no outlet level effect on discounting patterns, however, with the mean price differences apparently reflecting differences in the quality of brands carried rather than unequal prices for any given brand. Increased densities of private off-sale alcohol outlets appear to result in lower prices charged at said establishments independently of other types of alcohol outlets suggesting that they represent an emerging marketing niche in the context of off-sale outlet privatization. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on

  9. Six-month changes in spirituality and religiousness in alcoholics predict drinking outcomes at nine months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Elizabeth A R; Krentzman, Amy R; Webb, Jon R; Brower, Kirk J

    2011-07-01

    Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self.

  10. The marketing of alcohol to college students: the role of low prices and special promotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Meichun; Wechsler, Henry; Greenberg, Patty; Lee, Hang

    2003-10-01

    Heavy episodic or binge drinking has been recognized as a major problem on American college campuses affecting the health, safety, and education of students. The present study examines the alcohol environment surrounding college campuses and assesses the impact on students' drinking. This environment includes alcohol promotions, price specials, and advertising at drinking establishments that serve beer for on-premise consumption as well as retail outlets that sell beer for off-premise consumption. The study used student self-report data from the 2001 College Alcohol Study (CAS) and direct observational assessments by trained observers who visited alcohol establishments in communities where the participating colleges were located. The analytic sample included more than 10,000 students as well as 830 on-premise and 1684 off-premise establishments at 118 colleges. Alcohol specials, promotions, and advertisements were prevalent in the alcohol outlets around college campuses. Almost three quarters of on-premise establishments offered specials on weekends, and almost one half of the on-premise establishments and more than 60% of off-premise establishments provided at least one type of beer promotion. The availability of large volumes of alcohol (24- and 30-can cases of beer, kegs, party balls), low sale prices, and frequent promotions and advertisements at both on- and off-premise establishments were associated with higher binge drinking rates on the college campuses. In addition, an overall measure of on- and off-premise establishments was positively associated with the total number of drinks consumed. The regulation of marketing practices such as sale prices, promotions, and advertisements may be important strategies to reduce binge drinking and its accompanying problems.

  11. Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Tyng Chen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Methods: Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Results: Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the

  12. Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

    2011-10-01

    The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

  13. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafen Zhu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  14. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chafen; Zhu; Li; Wang; Tengfei; Yang

    2014-01-01

    This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  15. The composition of alcohol products from markets in Lithuania and Hungary, and potential health consequences: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Sarsh, Bart; Rehm, Jürgen

    2009-01-01

    The rates of alcohol-attributable mortality in Lithuania and Hungary have been shown to be higher than those in most other European countries. Quality of alcohol products is investigated as a possible explanation. In a descriptive pilot study, a convenience sample of alcohol products was collected from local city markets in both countries (Lithuania n = 10, Hungary n = 15) and chemical analyses, including some that have not been done in prior studies, were conducted. The parameters studied were alcoholic strength, volatiles (methanol, acetaldehyde, higher alcohols), ethyl carbamate, anions (including nitrate) and inorganic elements (including lead). Additionally, a multi-target screening analysis for toxicologically relevant substances was conducted. The majority of samples (64%) had an alcohol content between 35% vol. and 40% vol., being in accordance with the typical strength of legal spirits in Europe. Three samples containing significantly higher concentrations of alcohol above 60% vol. were found to be unrecorded alcohol products, defined as any alcohol that is outside of legal and taxed production. Screening analysis showed that those samples contained various flavourings, including the hepatotoxic substance coumarin, at concentrations above the legal limit for foods. All other substance classes under study were found to be at levels of no toxicological concern. Although some problems with the quality of the alcohol samples were found, there is insufficient evidence from this pilot study to conclude that alcohol quality has an influence on health as reflected in alcohol-attributable mortality rates. Given the extent of alcohol-attributable disease burden in central and eastern European countries, future research should focus on collection of large, representative samples, particularly of unrecorded sources, which was the most problematic product group in our study.

  16. Alcohol-flavoured tobacco products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackler, Robert K; VanWinkle, Callie K; Bumanlag, Isabela M; Ramamurthi, Divya

    2018-05-01

    In 2009, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) banned characterising flavours in cigarettes (except for menthol) due to their appeal to teen starter smokers. In August 2016, the agency deemed all tobacco products to be under its authority and a more comprehensive flavour ban is under consideration. To determine the scope and scale of alcohol-flavoured tobacco products among cigars & cigarillos, hookahs and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Alcohol-flavoured tobacco products were identified by online search of tobacco purveyors' product lines and via Google search cross-referencing the various tobacco product types versus a list of alcoholic beverage flavours (eg, wine, beer, appletini, margarita). 48 types of alcohol-flavoured tobacco products marketed by 409 tobacco brands were identified. Alcohol flavours included mixed drinks (n=25), spirits (11), liqueurs (7) and wine/beer (5). Sweet and fruity tropical mixed drink flavours were marketed by the most brands: piña colada (96), mojito (66) and margarita (50). Wine flavours were common with 104 brands. Among the tobacco product categories, brands offering alcohol-flavoured e-cigarettes (280) were most numerous, but alcohol-flavoured products were also marketed by cigars & cigarillos (88) and hookah brands (41). Brands by major tobacco companies (eg, Philip Morris, Imperial Tobacco) were well represented among alcohol-flavoured cigars & cigarillos with five companies offering a total of 17 brands. The widespread availability of alcohol-flavoured tobacco products illustrates the need to regulate characterising flavours on all tobacco products. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?

    OpenAIRE

    Dimpfl, Thomas; Jank, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices’ realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high searches follow high volatility, and high volatility follows high searches. Using the latter feedback effect to predict volatility we find that search queries contain additional information about market...

  18. Predicting drunk driving: contribution of alcohol use and related problems, traffic behaviour, personality and platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eensoo, Diva; Paaver, Marika; Harro, Maarike; Harro, Jaanus

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the predictive value of socio-economic data, alcohol consumption measures, smoking, platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity, traffic behaviour habits and impulsivity measures for actual drunk driving. Data were collected from 203 male drunk driving offenders and 211 control subjects using self-reported questionnaires, and blood samples were obtained from the two groups. We identified the combination of variables, which predicted correctly, approximately 80% of the subjects' belonging to the drunk driving and control groups. Significant independent discriminators in the final model were, among the health-behaviour measures, alcohol-related problems, frequency of using alcohol, the amount of alcohol consumed and smoking. Predictive traffic behaviour measures were seat belt use and paying for parking. Among the impulsivity measures, dysfunctional impulsivity was the best predictor; platelet MAO activity and age also had an independent predictive value. Our results support the notion that drunk driving is the result of a combination of various behavioural, biological and personality-related risk factors.

  19. Predictive Utility of Brief Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) for human immunodeficiency virus antiretroviral medication nonadherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broyles, Lauren Matukaitis; Gordon, Adam J; Sereika, Susan M; Ryan, Christopher M; Erlen, Judith A

    2011-10-01

    Alcohol use negatively affects adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), thus human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) care providers need accurate, efficient assessments of alcohol use. Using existing data from an efficacy trial of 2 cognitive-behavioral ART adherence interventions, the authors sought to determine if results on 2 common alcohol screening tests (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test--Consumption [AUDIT-C] and its binge-related question [AUDIT-3]) predict ART nonadherence. Twenty-seven percent of the sample (n = 308) were positive on the AUDIT-C and 34% were positive on the AUDIT-3. In multivariate analyses, AUDIT-C-positive status predicted ART nonadherence after controlling for race, age, conscientiousness, and self-efficacy (P = .036). Although AUDIT-3-positive status was associated with ART nonadherence in unadjusted analyses, this relationship was not maintained in the final multivariate model. The AUDIT-C shows potential as an indirect screening tool for both at-risk drinking and ART nonadherence, underscoring the relationship between alcohol and chronic disease management.

  20. Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. McMillan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.

  1. Caffeinated alcohol beverages: a public health concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attwood, Angela S

    2012-01-01

    Consumption of alcohol mixed with caffeinated energy drinks is becoming popular, and the number of pre-mixed caffeinated alcohol products on the worldwide market is increasing. There is public health concern and even occasional legal restriction relating to these drinks, due to associations with increased intoxication and harms. The precise nature and degree of the pharmacological relationship between caffeine and alcohol is not yet elucidated, but it is proposed that caffeine attenuates the sedative effects of alcohol intoxication while leaving motor and cognitive impairment unaffected. This creates a potentially precarious scenario for users who may underestimate their level of intoxication and impairment. While legislation in some countries has restricted production or marketing of pre-mixed products, many individuals mix their own energy drink-alcohol 'cocktails'. Wider dissemination of the risks might help balance marketing strategies that over-emphasize putative positive effects.

  2. Predicting problematic alcohol use with the DSM-5 alternative model of personality pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

    2016-01-01

    High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Maternal risk factors predicting child physical characteristics and dysmorphology in fetal alcohol syndrome and partial fetal alcohol syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene

    2011-12-01

    Previous research in South Africa revealed very high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), of 46-89 per 1000 among young children. Maternal and child data from studies in this community summarize the multiple predictors of FAS and partial fetal alcohol syndrome (PFAS). Sequential regression was employed to examine influences on child physical characteristics and dysmorphology from four categories of maternal traits: physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to predict influences on child physical characteristics. Individual sequential regressions revealed that maternal drinking measures were the most powerful predictors of a child's physical anomalies (R² = .30, p < .001), followed by maternal demographics (R² = .24, p < .001), maternal physical characteristics (R²=.15, p < .001), and childbearing variables (R² = .06, p < .001). The SEM utilized both individual variables and the four composite categories of maternal traits to predict a set of child physical characteristics, including a total dysmorphology score. As predicted, drinking behavior is a relatively strong predictor of child physical characteristics (β = 0.61, p < .001), even when all other maternal risk variables are included; higher levels of drinking predict child physical anomalies. Overall, the SEM model explains 62% of the variance in child physical anomalies. As expected, drinking variables explain the most variance. But this highly controlled estimation of multiple effects also reveals a significant contribution played by maternal demographics and, to a lesser degree, maternal physical and childbearing variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Targeted intervention: Computational approaches to elucidate and predict relapse in alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinz, Andreas; Deserno, Lorenz; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Smolka, Michael N; Beck, Anne; Schlagenhauf, Florian

    2017-05-01

    Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and addiction in general is characterized by failures of choice resulting in repeated drug intake despite severe negative consequences. Behavioral change is hard to accomplish and relapse after detoxification is common and can be promoted by consumption of small amounts of alcohol as well as exposure to alcohol-associated cues or stress. While those environmental factors contributing to relapse have long been identified, the underlying psychological and neurobiological mechanism on which those factors act are to date incompletely understood. Based on the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse, animal experiments showed that drug, cue and stress exposure affect Pavlovian and instrumental learning processes, which can increase salience of drug cues and promote habitual drug intake. In humans, computational approaches can help to quantify changes in key learning mechanisms during the development and maintenance of alcohol dependence, e.g. by using sequential decision making in combination with computational modeling to elucidate individual differences in model-free versus more complex, model-based learning strategies and their neurobiological correlates such as prediction error signaling in fronto-striatal circuits. Computational models can also help to explain how alcohol-associated cues trigger relapse: mechanisms such as Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer can quantify to which degree Pavlovian conditioned stimuli can facilitate approach behavior including alcohol seeking and intake. By using generative models of behavioral and neural data, computational approaches can help to quantify individual differences in psychophysiological mechanisms that underlie the development and maintenance of AUD and thus promote targeted intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Attention to advertising and memory for brands under alcohol intoxication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orquin, Jacob L; Jeppesen, Heine B; Scholderer, Joachim; Haugtvedt, Curtis

    2014-01-01

    In an attempt to discover new possibilities for advertising in uncluttered environments marketers have recently begun using ambient advertising in, for instance, bars and pubs. However, advertising in such licensed premises have to deal with the fact that many consumers are under the influence of alcohol while viewing the ad. This paper examines the effect of alcohol intoxication on attention to and memory for advertisements in two experiments. Study 1 used a forced exposure manipulation and revealed increased attention to logos under alcohol intoxication consistent with the psychopharmacological prediction that alcohol intoxication narrows attention to the more salient features in the visual environment. Study 2 used a voluntary exposure manipulation in which ads were embedded in a magazine. The experiment revealed that alcohol intoxication reduces voluntary attention to ads and leads to a significant reduction in memory for the viewed ads. In popular terms consuming one or two beers reduces brand recall from 40 to 36% while being heavily intoxicated further reduces brand recall to 17%.

  6. Predictability of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Kung, James J.

    2009-01-01

    Using the Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index from the first trading day in 1975 to the last trading day in 2007, we investigate the predictability of two popular technical rules (variable-length moving average and trading range breakout) in the Taiwan stock market and assess its bearing on market efficiency. Our results show that, for the two rules, returns from buy signals are generally higher than those from sell signals. In addition, they exhibit considerable predictive power over 1975-1...

  7. Prediction of mortality at age 40 in Danish males at high and low risk for alcoholism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Nickel, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This prospective high-risk study examined the influence of father's alcoholism and other archival-generated measures on premature death. METHOD: Sons of alcoholic fathers (n = 223) and sons of non-alcoholic fathers (n = 106) have been studied from birth to age 40. Archival predictors...... of premature death included father's alcoholism, childhood developmental data, and diagnostic information obtained from the Psychiatric Register and alcoholism clinics. RESULTS: By age 40, 21 of the 329 subjects had died (6.4%), a rate that is more than two times greater than expected. Sons of alcoholic...... fathers were not more likely to die by age 40. Premature death was associated with physical immaturity at 1-year of age and psychiatric/alcoholism treatment. No significant interactions were found between risk and archival measures. CONCLUSION: Genetic vulnerability did not independently predict death...

  8. Reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes through the use of social marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities.

  9. Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

    2015-05-01

    Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

  10. Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

  11. Determinants of underage college student drinking: implications for four major alcohol reduction strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Hye-Jin; Hove, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Guided by the assumptions of the social ecological model and the social marketing approach, this study provides a simultaneous and comprehensive assessment of 4 major alcohol reduction strategies for college campuses: school education programs, social norms campaigns, alcohol counter-marketing, and alcohol control policies. Analysis of nationally representative secondary survey data among 5,472 underage students reveals that alcohol marketing seems to be the most formidable risk factor for underage drinking, followed by perceived drinking norms (injunctive norm) and lax policy enforcement. This analysis suggests that, to make social norms campaigns and alcohol control policies more effective, alcohol reduction strategies should be developed to counter the powerful influence of alcohol marketing and promotions.

  12. Early emotional trauma in alcohol-dependent men: prevalence, associations and predictive value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Fortunata Donadon

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several studies have indicated that early emotional traumas (EET are highly prevalent in alcohol-dependent individuals, and that these traumas work as risk factors for the development of this disorder. Objective The aim of the current study is to evaluate the EET associations and predictive value regarding active alcohol dependence among male individuals from a developing country. Methods The sample consisted of two groups. The first was composed by adult male individuals diagnosed as alcohol dependents (AG, N = 110, and the second with no alcohol abuse and/or dependence diagnosis (CG, N = 110. Both groups were evaluated using Structured Clinical Interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; Early Emotional Trauma Inventory; and a sociodemographic questionnaire. Results All trauma subtypes (general, physical, emotional and sexual were more prevalent among AG than CG. However, only traumas categorized as general and emotional worked as risk factor for alcoholism development and they increased the chances to develop this disorder by 1.45 and 1.23 times, respectively. Discussion EETs are important factors that should be taken into account in interventions that aim to prevent, minimize and/or treat this clinical condition and its impact and/or severity, especially in countries such as Brazil.

  13. Alcohol use longitudinally predicts adjustment and impairment in college students with ADHD: The role of executive functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langberg, Joshua M; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Kipperman, Kristen L; Molitor, Stephen J; Eddy, Laura D

    2015-06-01

    The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether alcohol consumption longitudinally predicts the adjustment, overall functioning, and grade point average (GPA) of college students with ADHD and to determine whether self-report of executive functioning (EF) mediates these relationships. Sixty-two college students comprehensively diagnosed with ADHD completed ratings at the beginning and end of the school year. Regression analyses revealed that alcohol consumption rated at the beginning of the year significantly predicted self-report of adjustment and overall impairment at the end of the year, above and beyond ADHD symptoms and baseline levels of adjustment/impairment but did not predict GPA. Exploratory multiple mediator analyses suggest that alcohol use impacts impairment primarily through EF deficits in self-motivation. EF deficits in the motivation to refrain from pursuing immediately rewarding behaviors in order to work toward long-term goals appear to be particularly important in understanding why college students with ADHD who consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing significant negative outcomes. The implications of these findings for the prevention of the negative functional outcomes often experienced by college students with ADHD are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Evaluating the Effect of a Campus-Wide Social Norms Marketing Intervention on Alcohol-Use Perceptions, Consumption, and Blackouts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M.; Adkins, Amy

    2018-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. Participants: 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science…

  15. Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

  16. Sexual Markets or Black Markets?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes-Green, Christian

    2014-01-01

    sex with sugar-daddies, called sponsors or patrons, who provide for them in exchange for sex while male peers often become street vendors, street artists or petty criminals engaged in the so-called ‘black’ markets of theft, sale of counterfeits, and circulation of stolen goods, alcohol and drugs. As I...... show, these gendered markets are highly entangled and interdependent, and as I argue, male and female markets use many of the same technologies, sources and circuits of exchange...

  17. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  18. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Qiu

    Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  19. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  20. Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions

    OpenAIRE

    JS Armstrong; Philip D. Hutcherson

    2005-01-01

    Role -playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior re search, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p

  1. Current Status and Prediction on Development of PE Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Jiao

    2003-01-01

    This article comprehensively analyzes the status of market demand/supply and import/export volumes of PE in the world and in China, and predicts the future development trends in the fields of PE production and consumption.

  2. Alcohol advertising and youth: a measured approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Ostroff, Joshua; Ross, Craig

    2005-09-01

    Where alcohol industry self-regulation is the primary protection against youth exposure to alcohol advertising, independent, systematic monitoring of youth exposure can promote public awareness of and greater accountability in the industry's practices. Using commercially available databases, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth has combined occurrence and audience data to calculate youth (aged 12-20 years) and adult (above the United States legal drinking age of 21 years) exposure to alcohol advertising on television and radio, in magazines and on the Internet. This research in the United States shows that alcohol companies have placed significant amounts of advertising where youth are more likely per capita to be exposed to it than adults. Further analyses by the Center have demonstrated that much of this excess exposure of youth to alcohol advertising in the United States could be eliminated if alcohol companies would adopt a threshold of 15% (roughly the proportion of 12-20-years-old in the population 12 and above) as the maximum youth audience composition for their advertising. Although adoption of such a threshold would still leave much youth exposure to alcohol marketing in such "unmeasured" activities as sponsorships, on-premise promotions and campus marketing, it would assist alcohol companies in reaching their intended audiences more efficiently while reducing overall youth exposure to their advertising.

  3. Interactions between implicit and explicit cognition and working memory capacity in the prediction of alcohol use in at-risk adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thush, C.; Wiers, R.W.H.J.; Ames, S.L.; Grenard, J.L.; Sussman, S.Y.; Stacy, A.W.

    2008-01-01

    Dual process models of addiction suggest that the influence of alcohol-related cognition might be dependent on the level of executive functioning. This study investigated if the interaction between implicit and explicit alcohol-related cognitions and working memory capacity predicted alcohol use

  4. Cued recall of alcohol advertising on television and underage drinking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanski, Susanne E; McClure, Auden C; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D

    2015-03-01

    Alcohol is the most common drug among youth and a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Billions of dollars are spent annually marketing alcohol. To examine the reach of television alcohol advertising and its effect on drinking among underage youth. Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013 involving 2541 US adolescents 15 to 23 years of age at baseline, with 1596 of these adolescents completing the follow-up survey. Cued recall of television advertising images for top beer and distilled spirits brands that aired nationally in 2010-2011 (n = 351). Images were digitally edited to remove branding, and the respondents were queried about 20 randomly selected images. An alcohol advertising receptivity score was derived (1 point each for having seen the ad and for liking it, and 2 points for correct brand identification). Fast-food ads that aired nationally in 2010-2011 (n = 535) were similarly queried to evaluate message specificity. Among the underage youth at baseline, we determined (1) the onset of drinking among those who never drank, (2) the onset of binge drinking among those who were never binge drinkers, and (3) the onset of hazardous drinking among those with an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test consumption subscore of less than 4. Multivariate regressions were used to predict each outcome, controlling for covariates (demographics, drinking among friends and parents, and sensation seeking), weighting to the US population, and using multiple imputation to address loss to follow-up. Underage participants were only slightly less likely than participants of legal drinking age to have seen alcohol ads (the mean percentage of ads seen were 23.4%, 22.7%, and 25.6%, respectively, for youth 15-17, 18-20, and 21-23 years of age; P < .005). The transition to binge and hazardous drinking occurred for 29% and 18% of youth 15 to 17 years of age and for 29% and 19% of youth 18 to 20 years years of age, respectively

  5. Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu; Akagi, Fumio

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task because of the highly nonlinear nature of the financial time series. In this study, we apply an artificial neural network (ANN) that can map any nonlinear function without a prior assumption to predict the return of the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. (1) To improve the effectiveness of prediction algorithms, we propose a new set of input variables for ANN models. (2) To verify the prediction ability of the selected input variables, we predict returns for the Nikkei 225 index using the classical back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. (3) Global search techniques, i.e., a genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), are employed to improve the prediction accuracy of the ANN and overcome the local convergence problem of the BP algorithm. It is observed through empirical experiments that the selected input variables were effective to predict stock market returns. A hybrid approach based on GA and SA improve prediction accuracy significantly and outperform the traditional BP training algorithm.

  6. Carlsberg alibi marketing in the UEFA euro 2016 football finals: implications of Probably inappropriate alcohol advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Rachael; Breton, Magdalena Opazo; Britton, John; Cranwell, Jo; Grant-Braham, Bruce

    2018-04-25

    Alcohol advertising is a key driver of alcohol consumption, and is prohibited in France by the Loi Evin. In 2016 the Danish brewer Carlsberg sponsored the UEFA Euro 2016 finals, held in France, and used the alibis 'Probably' and '…the best in the world' in place of Carlsberg in pitch-side advertising. We have quantified the advertising exposure achieved during the final seven games in the UEFA Euro 2016 championship. Appearances of the Carlsberg alibis 'Probably' and 'the best in the world' were counted and timed to the nearest second during all active play in live coverage of quarter final, semi-final and final matches broadcast in the UK. We used census data and viewing figures from Kantar Media to estimate gross and per capita impressions of these advertisements in the UK population. In 796 min, 29 s of active play there were 746 alibi appearances, totalling 68 min 35 s duration and representing 8.6% of active playing time. Appearances were particularly frequent at the end of normal time, extra time and penalties. The seven matches delivered up to 7.43 billion Carlsberg alibi impressions to UK adults and 163.3 million to children. In the only match involving a second country with laws prohibiting alcohol advertising (France versus Iceland), exposure occurred for only 1.8% of playing time. Alibi marketing achieved significant advertising coverage during the final seven EURO 2016 championship games, particularly to children. Since 'Probably' is registered by Carlsberg as a wordmark this advertising appears to contravene the Loi Evin, though Carlsberg have defended their marketing actions.

  7. Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahbazi Nima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.

  8. Combined alcohol and energy drink use: hedonistic motives, adenosine, and alcohol dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A

    2014-07-01

    Consumption of alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AmED) has been associated with both short- and long-term risks beyond those observed with alcohol alone. AmED use has been associated with heavy episodic (binge) drinking, risky behaviors, and risk of alcohol dependence. Laboratory research has demonstrated that AmED beverages lead to greater motivation to drink versus the same amount of alcohol consumed alone. However, the reason consumers find AmED beverages particularly appealing has been unclear. A recent report by Droste and colleagues (Alcohol Clin Exp Res 2014; 38:2087-2095) is the first study to investigate motivations related to AmED consumption and to determine which motives predict AmED consumption patterns, experience of drinking-related harms, and risk of alcohol dependence. The findings of this study significantly enhance our understanding of why AmED consumption is related to the risk of alcohol dependence and change our understanding of why consumers choose AmED beverages. The authors report that hedonistic motives strongly predicted AmED use and the harms associated with use. While intoxication-reduction motives predicted self-reported accidents and injuries, these motives did not predict AmED consumption patterns and risk of dependence. The risk of alcohol dependence may arise from repeated experiences when drinking alcohol is more pleasurable when energy drinks are consumed with the alcohol. This commentary will focus on why energy drinks might increase the rewarding properties of alcohol in social drinkers. In addition, discussion is provided explaining why more research on the neurotransmitter, adenosine, may actually inform us about the mechanisms contributing to the development of alcohol dependence. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  9. Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikuláš Gangur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Electronic virtual markets can serve as an alternative tool for collecting information that is spread among numerous experts. This is the principal market functionality from the operators’ point of view. On the other hand it is profits that are the main interest of the market participants. What they expect from the market is liquidity as high as possible and the opportunity for unrestricted trading. Both the operator and the electronic market participant can be considered consumers of this particular market with reference to the requirements for the accuracy of its outputs but also for the market liquidity. Both the above mentioned groups of consumers (the operators and the participants themselves expect protection of their specific consumer rights, i.e. securing the two above mentioned functionalities of the market. These functionalities of the electronic market are, however, influenced by many factors, among others by participants’ activity. The article deals with the motivation tools that may improve the quality of the prediction market. In the prediction electronic virtual market there may be situations in which the commonly used tools for increasing business activities described in the published literature are not significantly effective. For such situations we suggest a new type of motivation incentive consisting in penalizing the individual market participants whose funds are not placed in the market. The functionality of the proposed motivation incentive is presented on the example of the existing data gained from the electronic virtual prediction market which is actively operated.

  10. Can human rights standards help protect children and youth from the detrimental impact of alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Audrey R

    2017-01-01

    The alcohol industry in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region promotes demand for alcohol products actively through a number of channels, including advertising and sponsorship of sports and other events. This paper evaluates whether human rights instruments that Latin American countries have ratified can be used to limit children's exposure to alcohol advertising and promotion. A review was conducted of the text of, and interpretative documents related to, a series of international and regional human rights instruments ratified by most countries in the LAC region that enumerate the right to health. The Convention on the Rights of the Child has the most relevant provisions to protect children and youth from alcohol promotion and advertising. Related interpretive documents by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child affirm that corporations hold duties to respect and protect children's right to health. Human rights norms and law can be used to regulate or eliminate alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities in the Latin American region. The paper recommends developing a human rights based Framework Convention on Alcohol Control to provide guidance. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  11. Combined Alcohol and Energy Drink Use: Hedonistic Motives, Adenosine, and Alcohol Dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A.

    2014-01-01

    Consumption of alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AmED) has been associated with both short and long-term risks beyond those observed with alcohol alone. AmED use has been associated with heavy episodic (binge) drinking, risky behaviors, and risk of alcohol dependence. Laboratory research has demonstrated that AmED beverages lead to greater motivation to drink versus the same amount of alcohol consumed alone. However, the reason consumers find AmED beverages particularly appealing has been unclear. A recent report by Droste and colleagues (2014) is the first study to investigate motivations related to AmED consumption and to determine which motives predict AmED consumption patterns, experience of drinking-related harms, and risk of alcohol dependence. The findings of this study significantly enhance our understanding of why AmED consumption is related to the risk of alcohol dependence and change our understanding of why consumers chose AmED beverages. The authors report that hedonistic motives strongly predicted AmED use and the harms associated with use. While intoxication-reduction motives predicted self-reported accidents and injuries, these motives did not predict AmED consumption patterns and risk of dependence. The risk of alcohol dependence may arise from repeated experiences when drinking alcohol is more pleasurable when energy drinks are consumed with the alcohol. This commentary will focus on why energy drinks might increase the rewarding properties of alcohol in social drinkers. In addition, discussion is provided explaining why more research on the neurotransmitter, adenosine, may actually inform us about the mechanisms contributing to the development of alcohol dependence. PMID:25040590

  12. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  13. Using the AUDIT-PC to predict alcohol withdrawal in hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecoraro, Anna; Ewen, Edward; Horton, Terry; Mooney, Ruth; Kolm, Paul; McGraw, Patty; Woody, George

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) occurs when alcohol-dependent individuals abruptly reduce or stop drinking. Hospitalized alcohol-dependent patients are at risk. Hospitals need a validated screening tool to assess withdrawal risk, but no validated tools are currently available. To examine the admission Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-(Piccinelli) Consumption (AUDIT-PC) ability to predict the subsequent development of AWS among hospitalized medical-surgical patients admitted to a non-intensive care setting. Retrospective case–control study of patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of AWS. All patients with AWS were classified as presenting with AWS or developing AWS later during admission. Patients admitted to an intensive care setting and those missing AUDIT-PC scores were excluded from analysis. A hierarchical (by hospital unit) logistic regression was performed and receiver-operating characteristics were examined on those developing AWS after admission and randomly selected controls. Because those diagnosing AWS were not blinded to the AUDIT-PC scores, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The study cohort included all patients age ≥18 years admitted to any medical or surgical units in a single health care system from 6 October 2009 to 7 October 2010. After exclusions, 414 patients were identified with AWS. The 223 (53.9 %) who developed AWS after admission were compared to 466 randomly selected controls without AWS. An AUDIT-PC score ≥4 at admission provides 91.0 % sensitivity and 89.7 % specificity (AUC=0.95; 95 % CI, 0.94–0.97) for AWS, and maximizes the correct classification while resulting in 17 false positives for every true positive identified. Performance remained excellent on sensitivity analysis (AUC=0.92; 95 % CI, 0.90–0.93). Increasing AUDIT-PC scores were associated with an increased risk of AWS (OR=1.68, 95 % CI 1.55–1.82, pAUDIT-PC score is an excellent discriminator of AWS and could be an important component

  14. Disclosure and Exposure of Alcohol on Social Media and Later Alcohol Use: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eilin K. Erevik

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to investigate whether alcohol-related disclosure and exposure on social media can predict later alcohol use, and to identify covariates in these relationships. Data were collected by online surveys (two waves among students in Bergen, Norway. The first survey was administered in fall 2015. The follow-up took place during fall 2016. A total of 5,217 students participated in both waves. The surveys included questions about demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions (e.g., attitudes and norms, social media use, and disclosure and exposure of alcohol on social media. Bivariate comparisons were conducted to assess differences in alcohol use between the frequent (i.e., monthly or more often disclosure and exposure groups and low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups. Crude and adjusted linear regressions were employed to investigate if disclosure and exposure of alcohol could predict later alcohol use, when controlling for a range of covariates. Compared to the low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups, participants which frequently disclosed or were frequently exposed to alcohol-related content had higher alcohol use at baseline and 1 year later (p < 0.001, when no covariates were controlled for. Frequent disclosure of content reflecting positive aspects of alcohol predicted stable or slightly increased alcohol use at Time 2 (p < 0.01, even when all covariates (i.e., demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions, and social media use were controlled for. In conclusion, frequent disclosure and/or exposure to alcohol-related content predicted alcohol use over time. Alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media could for the most part not predict later alcohol use when baseline alcohol use was controlled for. High alcohol use and alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media appear to be strongly intertwined, which hampers identification of directionality between alcohol use and disclosure

  15. Attention to advertising and memory for brands under alcohol intoxication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orquin, Jacob L.; Jeppesen, Heine B.; Scholderer, Joachim; Haugtvedt, Curtis

    2014-01-01

    In an attempt to discover new possibilities for advertising in uncluttered environments marketers have recently begun using ambient advertising in, for instance, bars and pubs. However, advertising in such licensed premises have to deal with the fact that many consumers are under the influence of alcohol while viewing the ad. This paper examines the effect of alcohol intoxication on attention to and memory for advertisements in two experiments. Study 1 used a forced exposure manipulation and revealed increased attention to logos under alcohol intoxication consistent with the psychopharmacological prediction that alcohol intoxication narrows attention to the more salient features in the visual environment. Study 2 used a voluntary exposure manipulation in which ads were embedded in a magazine. The experiment revealed that alcohol intoxication reduces voluntary attention to ads and leads to a significant reduction in memory for the viewed ads. In popular terms consuming one or two beers reduces brand recall from 40 to 36% while being heavily intoxicated further reduces brand recall to 17%. PMID:24723899

  16. Socioeconomic determinants of exposure to alcohol outlets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J; Ponicki, William R

    2015-05-01

    Alcohol outlets tend to be located in lower income areas, exposing lower income populations to excess risks associated with alcohol sales through these establishments. The objective of this study was to test two hypotheses about the etiology of these differential exposures based on theories of the economic geography of retail markets: (a) outlets will locate within or near areas of high alcohol demand, and (b) outlets will be excluded from areas with high land and structure rents. Data from the 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey were used to develop a surrogate for alcohol demand (i.e., market potential) at two census geographies for the city of Melbourne, Australia. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models estimated multilevel spatial relationships between counts of bars, restaurants, and off-premise outlets and market potential, income, and zoning ordinances (Level 1: n = 8,914). Market potentials were greatest in areas with larger older age, male, English-speaking, high-income populations. Independent of zoning characteristics, greater numbers of outlets appeared in areas with greater market potentials and the immediately surrounding areas. Greater income excluded outlets in local and surrounding areas. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that alcohol outlets are located in areas with high demand and are excluded from high-income areas. These processes appear to take place at relatively small geographic scales, encourage the concentration of outlets in specific low-income areas, and represent a very general economic process likely to take place in communities throughout the world.

  17. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  18. Cued Recall of Alcohol Advertising on Television and Underage Drinking Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanski, Susanne E.; McClure, Auden C.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.

    2015-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Alcohol is the most common drug among youth and a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Billions of dollars are spent annually marketing alcohol. OBJECTIVE To examine the reach of television alcohol advertising and its effect on drinking among underage youth. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013 involving 2541 US adolescents 15 to 23 years of age at baseline, with 1596 of these adolescents completing the follow-up survey. Cued recall of television advertising images for top beer and distilled spirits brands that aired nationally in 2010–2011 (n = 351). Images were digitally edited to remove branding, and the respondents were queried about 20 randomly selected images. An alcohol advertising receptivity score was derived (1 point each for having seen the ad and for liking it, and 2 points for correct brand identification). Fast-food ads that aired nationally in 2010–2011 (n = 535) were similarly queried to evaluate message specificity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Among the underage youth at baseline, we determined (1) the onset of drinking among those who never drank, (2) the onset of binge drinking among those who were never binge drinkers, and (3) the onset of hazardous drinking among those with an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test consumption subscore of less than 4. Multivariate regressions were used to predict each outcome, controlling for covariates (demographics, drinking among friends and parents, and sensation seeking), weighting to the US population, and using multiple imputation to address loss to follow-up. RESULTS Underage participants were only slightly less likely than participants of legal drinking age to have seen alcohol ads (the mean percentage of ads seen were 23.4%, 22.7%, and 25.6%, respectively, for youth 15–17, 18–20, and 21–23 years of age; P advertising receptivity score independently predicted the onset of drinking (adjusted

  19. Predictive Capacity of Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R) in alcohol use disorder outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia

    2016-06-14

    to investigate the ability to predict the outcome of alcohol use disorders through Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R). this is a prospective study consisting of 237 outpatients with alcohol use disorders who underwent follow-up treatment for 6 months and whose personality traits were studied using TCI-R. At the end of that period, the scores of each TCI-R trait were analyzed in terms of those who remained in treatment and those who dropped out. The whole group scored highly in novelty seeking (NS) and harm avoidance (HA) and produced low scores in self-directedness (SD), these last traits are considered prominent. The drop-out group scored significantly (p=.004) higher in novelty seeking (NS) than the follow-up group. Also, when the score was higher than the 67 percentile the likelihood of abandoning the treatment was 1.07 times higher. Cloninger's temperament and character inventory is a good instrument to predict the outcome of treatment of patients with alcohol use disorders and the novelty seeking (NS) dimension is strongly related to therapeutic drop-out.

  20. Economic issues and public alcohol abuse prevention policies in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spach, Miléna

    2016-10-19

    Objective: To analyse the impact of the alcohol market on the implementation of strong-willed public alcohol abuse prevention policies based on a critical review of the literature. Method: Documentary research and analysis of the alcohol market economic data were performed. An overview of public alcohol abuse prevention policies was conducted from a historical perspective by distinguishing drunkenness control policies, protection of vulnerable populations, and the fight against drink driving and drinking in the workplace. Results: Public alcohol abuse prevention policies are primarily designed to reduce the harmful consequences of alcohol occurring as a result of a drinking episode (motor vehicle accident, highway accidents, etc.), while neglecting the long-term consequences (cancer, cirrhosis, etc.). Moreover, while taxation is one of the major public health tools used to reduce the costs of alcohol-related damage on society, the State exercises legislative and tax protection for alcoholic beverages produced in France. In particular, wine benefits from a lower tax rate than other stronger forms of alcohol (spirits, liquors, etc.). The economic weight of the alcohol market can provide an explanation for these public alcohol abuse prevention policies. Conclusion: In view of the mortality caused by alcohol abuse, France must implement a proactive public policy. An alcohol taxation policy based on the alcohol content, a minimum unit pricing for alcohol, or higher taxes on alcohol are public policies that could be considered in order to reduce alcohol-related mortality.

  1. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing

  2. Strengthening the Canadian alcohol advertising regulatory system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heung, Carly M; Rempel, Benjamin; Krank, Marvin

    2012-05-24

    Research evidence points to harmful effects from alcohol advertising among children and youth. In particular, exposure to alcohol advertising has been associated with adolescents drinking both earlier and heavier. Although current federal and provincial guidelines have addressed advertising practices to prevent underage drinking, practice has not been supported by existing policy. While protective measures such as social marketing campaigns have the potential for counteracting the effects from alcohol advertising, the effectiveness of such measures can be easily drowned out with increasing advertising activities from the alcohol industry, especially without effective regulation. Research reviewed by the European Focus on Alcohol Safe Environment (FASE) Project has identified a set of key elements that are necessary to make alcohol advertising policy measures effective at protecting children and youth from the harmful effects of alcohol marketing. Using these key elements as an evaluation framework, there are critical components in the Canadian alcohol advertising regulatory system that clearly require strengthening. To protect impressionable children and youth against the harmful effects of alcohol advertising, 13 recommendations to strengthen current alcohol advertising regulations in Canada are provided for Canadian policy-makers, advertising standard agencies, and public health groups.

  3. The predictive validity of the Drinking-Related Cognitions Scale in alcohol-dependent patients under abstinence-oriented treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sawayama Toru

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cognitive factors associated with drinking behavior such as positive alcohol expectancies, self-efficacy, perception of impaired control over drinking and perception of drinking problems are considered to have a significant influence on treatment effects and outcome in alcohol-dependent patients. However, the development of a rating scale on lack of perception or denial of drinking problems and impaired control over drinking has not been substantial, even though these are important factors in patients under abstinence-oriented treatment as well as participants in self-help groups such as Alcoholics Anonymous (AA. The Drinking-Related Cognitions Scale (DRCS is a new self-reported rating scale developed to briefly measure cognitive factors associated with drinking behavior in alcohol-dependent patients under abstinence-oriented treatment, including positive alcohol expectancies, abstinence self-efficacy, perception of impaired control over drinking, and perception of drinking problems. Here, we conducted a prospective cohort study to explore the predictive validity of DRCS. Methods Participants in this study were 175 middle-aged and elderly Japanese male patients who met the DSM-IV Diagnostic Criteria for Alcohol Dependence. DRCS scores were recorded before and after the inpatient abstinence-oriented treatment program, and treatment outcome was evaluated one year after discharge. Results Of the 175 participants, 30 were not available for follow-up; thus the number of subjects for analysis in this study was 145. When the total DRCS score and subscale scores were compared before and after inpatient treatment, a significant increase was seen for both scores. Both the total DRCS score and each subscale score were significantly related to total abstinence, percentage of abstinent days, and the first drinking occasion during the one-year post-treatment period. Therefore, good treatment outcome was significantly predicted by low

  4. Do daily fluctuations in inhibitory control predict alcohol consumption? : An ecological momentary assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jones, Andrew; Tiplady, Brian; Houben, Katrijn; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Field, Matt

    RATIONALE: Deficient inhibitory control is predictive of increased alcohol consumption in the laboratory; however, little is known about this relationship in naturalistic, real-world settings. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we implemented ecological momentary assessment methods to investigate the

  5. Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xisca Sureda

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time.

  6. Disclosure and Exposure of Alcohol on Social Media and Later Alcohol Use: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erevik, Eilin K; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Andreassen, Cecilie S; Vedaa, Øystein; Pallesen, Ståle

    2017-01-01

    This article aims to investigate whether alcohol-related disclosure and exposure on social media can predict later alcohol use, and to identify covariates in these relationships. Data were collected by online surveys (two waves) among students in Bergen, Norway. The first survey was administered in fall 2015. The follow-up took place during fall 2016. A total of 5,217 students participated in both waves. The surveys included questions about demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions (e.g., attitudes and norms), social media use, and disclosure and exposure of alcohol on social media. Bivariate comparisons were conducted to assess differences in alcohol use between the frequent (i.e., monthly or more often) disclosure and exposure groups and low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups. Crude and adjusted linear regressions were employed to investigate if disclosure and exposure of alcohol could predict later alcohol use, when controlling for a range of covariates. Compared to the low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups, participants which frequently disclosed or were frequently exposed to alcohol-related content had higher alcohol use at baseline and 1 year later ( p social media use) were controlled for. In conclusion, frequent disclosure and/or exposure to alcohol-related content predicted alcohol use over time. Alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media could for the most part not predict later alcohol use when baseline alcohol use was controlled for. High alcohol use and alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media appear to be strongly intertwined, which hampers identification of directionality between alcohol use and disclosure/exposure. Disclosing content reflecting positive aspects of alcohol was the only independent variable that could predict further alcohol use when other factors, like baseline alcohol use, were held constant. This finding suggests that disclosure of alcohol content reflecting positive aspects of alcohol might

  7. Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

    2011-01-01

    Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…

  8. Differences in the subjective and motivational properties of alcohol across alcohol use severity: application of a novel translational human laboratory paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bujarski, Spencer; Jentsch, J David; Roche, Daniel J O; Ramchandani, Vijay A; Miotto, Karen; Ray, Lara A

    2018-05-08

    The Allostatic Model proposes that Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) is associated with a transition in the motivational structure of alcohol drinking: from positive reinforcement in early-stage drinking to negative reinforcement in late-stage dependence. However, direct empirical support for this preclinical model from human experiments is limited. This study tests predictions derived from the Allostatic Model in humans. Specifically, this study tested whether alcohol use severity (1) independently predicts subjective responses to alcohol (SR; comprised of stimulation/hedonia, negative affect, sedation and craving domains), and alcohol self-administration and 2) moderates associations between domains of SR and alcohol self-administration. Heavy drinking participants ranging in severity of alcohol use and problems (N = 67) completed an intravenous alcohol administration paradigm combining an alcohol challenge (target BrAC = 60 mg%), with progressive ratio self-administration. Alcohol use severity was associated with greater baseline negative affect, sedation, and craving but did not predict changes in any SR domain during the alcohol challenge. Alcohol use severity also predicted greater self-administration. Craving during the alcohol challenge strongly predicted self-administration and sedation predicted lower self-administration. Neither stimulation, nor negative affect predicted self-administration. This study represents a novel approach to translating preclinical neuroscientific theories to the human laboratory. As expected, craving predicted self-administration and sedation was protective. Contrary to the predictions of the Allostatic Model, however, these results were inconsistent with a transition from positively to negatively reinforced alcohol consumption in severe AUD. Future studies that assess negative reinforcement in the context of an acute stressor are warranted.

  9. Consumer demand for low-alcohol wine in an Australian sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saliba AJ

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Anthony J Saliba, Linda A Ovington, Carmen C MoranCharles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, AustraliaBackground: The aim of this paper is to inform wine producers and marketers of those in the population who are interested in low-alcohol wine by describing the results of an Australian survey.Method: In the present study, 851 adult wine consumers completed an online questionnaire on their purchasing and consumption of wine, demographics, knowledge, and reasons for consuming wine. Reasons for consumption were defined using Brunner and Siegrist’s validated model. Self-reported interest in low-alcohol wine was used to determine the likely maximum possible market size.Results: The majority of respondents considered “low-alcohol wine” to contain around 3%–8% alcohol. Results indicated that those most likely to purchase low-alcohol wine were female and those who drink wine with food. Those who drank wine more frequently showed interest in wine sold in known-dose quantities, such as one standard drink. Reasons for preferring a low-alcohol wine included driving after drinking, to lessen the adverse effects of alcohol, and to consume more without the effects of a higher-alcohol wine. Finally, results pointed to the importance of taste as a driver of consumption.Conclusion: This is the first study to define the opportunity market for low-alcohol wine in Australia agnostic to intervening variables, thus defines the likely upper limit. Further, we showed what consumers currently define as low alcohol. Both of these findings allow wine companies to make a decision on the profitability of the low-alcohol market in Australia.Keywords: consumer demand, low alcohol, wine, consumer preference

  10. Socioeconomic Determinants of Exposure to Alcohol Outlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J.; Ponicki, William R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Alcohol outlets tend to be located in lower income areas, exposing lower income populations to excess risks associated with alcohol sales through these establishments. The objective of this study was to test two hypotheses about the etiology of these differential exposures based on theories of the economic geography of retail markets: (a) outlets will locate within or near areas of high alcohol demand, and (b) outlets will be excluded from areas with high land and structure rents. Method: Data from the 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey were used to develop a surrogate for alcohol demand (i.e., market potential) at two census geographies for the city of Melbourne, Australia. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models estimated multilevel spatial relationships between counts of bars, restaurants, and off-premise outlets and market potential, income, and zoning ordinances (Level 1: n = 8,914). Results: Market potentials were greatest in areas with larger older age, male, English-speaking, high-income populations. Independent of zoning characteristics, greater numbers of outlets appeared in areas with greater market potentials and the immediately surrounding areas. Greater income excluded outlets in local and surrounding areas. Conclusions: These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that alcohol outlets are located in areas with high demand and are excluded from high-income areas. These processes appear to take place at relatively small geographic scales, encourage the concentration of outlets in specific low-income areas, and represent a very general economic process likely to take place in communities throughout the world. PMID:25978830

  11. Prediction of the solubility of selected pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols with a group contribution method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelczarska, Aleksandra; Ramjugernath, Deresh; Rarey, Jurgen; Domańska, Urszula

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The prediction of solubility of pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols was presented. ► Improved group contribution method UNIFAC was proposed for 42 binary mixtures. ► Infinite activity coefficients were used in a model. ► A semi-predictive model with one experimental point was proposed. ► This model qualitatively describes the temperature dependency of Pharms. -- Abstract: An improved group contribution approach using activity coefficients at infinite dilution, which has been proposed by our group, was used for the prediction of the solubility of selected pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols [B. Moller, Activity of complex multifunctional organic compounds in common solvents, PhD Thesis, Chemical Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2009]. The solubility of 16 different pharmaceuticals in water, ethanol and octan-1-ol was predicted over a fairly wide range of temperature with this group contribution model. The predicted values, along with values computed with the Schroeder-van Laar equation, are compared to experimental results published by us previously for 42 binary mixtures. The predicted solubility values were lower than those from the experiments for most of the mixtures. In order to improve the prediction method, a semi-predictive calculation using one experimental solubility value was implemented. This one point prediction has given acceptable results when comparison is made to experimental values

  12. Effects of Specific Alcohol Control Policy Measures on Alcohol-Related Mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaltourina, Daria; Korotayev, Andrey

    2015-09-01

    To elucidate the possible effects of alcohol control policy measures on alcohol-related mortality in Russia between 1998 and 2013. Trends in mortality, alcohol production and sales were analyzed in conjunction with alcohol control legislative measures. Correlation analysis of health and alcohol market indicators was performed. Ethyl alcohol production was the strongest correlate of alcohol-related mortality, which is probably due to the fact that ethyl alcohol is used for both recorded and unrecorded alcohol production. Measures producing greatest mortality reduction effect included provisions which reduced ethyl alcohol production (introduction of minimum authorized capital for ethyl alcohol and liquor producers in 2006 and the requirement for distillery dreg processing), as well as measures to tax and denaturize ethanol-containing liquids in 2006. Liquor tax decrease in real terms was associated with rising mortality in 1998-1999, while excise tax increase was associated with mortality reduction in 2004 and since 2012. Conventional alcohol control measures may also have played a moderately positive role. Countries with high alcohol-related mortality should aim for a reduction in spirits consumption as a major health policy. Alcohol market centralization and reduction of the number of producers can have immediate strong effects on mortality. These measures should be combined with an increase in alcohol taxes and prices, as well as other established alcohol policy measures. In 2015 in Russia, this is not being implemented. In Russia, legislation enforcement including excise tax collection remains the major challenge. Another challenge will be the integration into the Eurasian Economic Union. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  13. Monitoring Outdoor Alcohol Advertising in Developing Countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analyses on the placement, channels, size and content of outdoor alcohol advertising practices (N=807) in relation to existing regulations are given. For example, in Gambia, the country with the most stringent alcohol marketing regulations of all countries studied, outdoor alcohol advertisements are on average smaller and ...

  14. Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed; Thanh Huong Dinh; Duc Khuong Nguyen

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a time-varying parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects to examine the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period February 7, 1997-January 8, 2010. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term predictability in oil-price changes over time, except for several short sub-periods. However, the hypothesis of convergence towards weak-form informational efficiency is rejected for all markets. In addition, we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the time-paths of the estimated predictability indices and detect only one breakpoint, for the oil markets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical results therefore call for new empirical research to further gauge the predictability characteristics and the determinants of oil-price changes.

  15. Forms of Functioning of the Modern Market of Addictive Goods Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Yu. Skokov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The classification of forms of markets for addictive goods was made according to the criterion of exchange (absent, emerging, free, oligopolistic, monopolistic, monopoly. There were systematized approaches to argument for the state monopolization of the markets. Reducing the supply, increasing prices, reducing the influence of the motive of private profit are crucial. There was made the classification and analysis of prevailing forms of state markets for addictive goods in the international practice. They are: state monopolistic, competitive, prohibitionists, medical, antiprohibitionists mixed. Based on this there were marked modern features of their state regulation due to the consumer culture, religious prohibitions, the effectiveness of measures in demand reducing, diametrically different approaches to new markets, international split in the prohibition of the drug market. Domestic specifics associated with skimping on experience of regulation of the alcoholic market in a similar pattern of consumption in the Nordic countries, inadequate implementation capacity of state regulation of demand for tobacco products, with the creation of barriers to the development of gambling and new markets for addictive goods, with a veto on the liberalization of the drug market. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the market potential of business entities in specific markets there were offered socially appropriate forms of their states: in the markets of gambling and drugs a combination of the policy of prohibition and monopoly-oligopolistic proposals, in oligopolistic markets tobacco products and energy drinks the monopoly, in the markets of alcoholic products the differentiated approach.

  16. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sureda, Xisca; Carreño, Víctor; Espelt, Albert; Villalbí, Joan R; Pearce, Jamie; Franco, Manuel

    Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising on radio--United States, June-August 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    In the United States, more underage youth drink alcohol than smoke tobacco or use illicit drugs. Excessive alcohol consumption leads to many adverse health and social consequences and results in approximately 4,500 deaths among underage youth each year. Recent studies have emphasized the contribution of alcohol marketing to underage drinking and have demonstrated that a substantial proportion of alcohol advertising appears in media for which the audience composition is youth-oriented (i.e., composed disproportionately of persons aged 12-20 years). To determine the proportion of radio advertisements that occurred on radio programs with audiences composed disproportionately of underage youth and the proportion of total youth exposure to alcohol advertising that occurs as a result of such advertising, researchers at the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth (Health Policy Institute, Georgetown University, District of Columbia) evaluated the placement of individual radio advertisements for the most advertised U.S. alcohol brands and the composition of audiences in the largest 104 markets in the United States. This report summarizes the results of that study, which indicate that alcohol advertising is common on radio programs which have disproportionately large youth audiences and that this advertising accounts for a substantial proportion of all alcohol radio advertising heard by underage youth. These results further indicate that 1) the current voluntary standards limiting alcohol marketing to youth should be enforced and ultimately strengthened, and 2) ongoing monitoring of youth exposure to alcohol advertising should continue.

  19. Alcohol and labor supply: the case of Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgeirsdottir, Tinna Laufey; McGeary, Kerry Anne

    2009-10-01

    At a time when the government of Iceland is considering privatization of alcohol sales and a reduction of its governmental fees, it is timely to estimate the potential effects of this policy change. Given that the privatization of sales coupled with a tax reduction should lead to a decrease in the unit price of alcohol, one would expect the quantity consumed to increase. While it is of interest to project the impact of the proposed bill on the market for alcohol, another important consideration is the impact that increased alcohol consumption and, more specifically, probable alcohol misuse would have on other markets in Iceland. The only available study on this subject using Icelandic data yields surprising results. Tómasson et al. (Scand J Public Health 32:47-52, 2004) unexpectedly found no effect of probable alcohol abuse on sick leave. A logical next step would be to examine the effect of probable alcohol abuse on other important labor-market outcomes. Nationally representative survey data from 2002 allow for an analysis of probable misuse of alcohol and labor-supply choices. Labor-supply choices are considered with reference to possible effects of policies already in force, as well as proposed changes to current policies. Contrary to intuition, but in agreement with the previously mentioned Icelandic study, the adverse effects of probable misuse of alcohol on employment status or hours worked are not confirmed within this sample. The reasons for the results are unclear, although some suggestions are hypothesized. Currently, data to test those theories convincingly are not available.

  20. Media alcohol advertising with drinking behaviors among young adolescents in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chuan-Yu; Huang, Hsueh-Yu; Tseng, Fang-Yi; Chiu, Yu-Chan; Chen, Wei J

    2017-08-01

    To investigate potential effects of alcohol ads in six major marketing channels on drinking behaviors among young adolescents in Taiwan. The data were derived from the Alcohol-Related Experiences among Children study. The baseline sample was comprised of 1926 seventh-eighth graders from 11 public middle schools in Taipei in 2010; follow-up was conducted one year later (follow-up rate=97%). Information concerning individual sociodemographics, family characteristics, exposure to media portrayals of drinking and alcohol ads on major marketing channels, and drinking experience was collected through web-based self-administered questionnaires. Complex survey analyses were used to evaluate the association estimates, with stratification by prior drinking experiences in childhood. Television, in-store displays, and websites are the three most common marketing channels for young adolescents to report past-month alcohol advertising exposure. With statistical adjustment for potential confounders and six market channels, exposure to alcohol ads on television was associated with subsequent increased drinking initiation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.62; 95% CI=1.14-6.02). For those who have initiated alcohol use in childhood, the exposure to ads on the web (aOR=1.50; 95% CI=1.04-2.15) and radio (aOR=2.58; 95% CI=1.60-4.15) may elevate subsequent risk of occasional drinking. Exposure to media drinking portrayals was not related to subsequent drinking behaviors in this sample. Our results demonstrated that the effects of alcohol advertising on drinking behaviors in early adolescence may differ by marketing channels. Preventive strategies targeting underage drinking should consider restraining marketing channels (e.g., websites and radio) from certain advertising content and placement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Developmental Relations between Alcohol Expectancies and Social Norms in Predicting Alcohol Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Tim; Treloar Padovano, Hayley; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

    2018-01-01

    Expectations about alcohol's effects and perceptions of peers' behaviors and beliefs related to alcohol use are each shown to strongly influence the timing of drinking onset during adolescence. The present study builds on prior work by examining the conjoint effects of within-person changes in these social-cognitive factors on age of adolescent…

  2. Predictability of Wave Energy and Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez

    2012-01-01

    The articlw addresses an important challenge ahead the integration of the electricity generated by wave energy conversion technologies into the electric grid. Particularly, it looks into the role of wave energy within the day-ahead electricity market. For that the predictability of the theoretical...... power outputs of three wave energy technologies in the Danish North Sea are examined. The simultaneous and co-located forecast and buoy-measured wave parameters at Hanstholm, Denmark, during a non-consecutive autumn and winter 3-month period form the basis of the investigation. The objective...

  3. The emerging marijuana retail environment: Key lessons learned from tobacco and alcohol retail research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Carla J; Henriksen, Lisa; Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Haardoerfer, Regine; Freisthler, Bridget

    2018-06-01

    The emerging retail market for recreational marijuana use warrants research and surveillance as such markets are established in more US states. This research can be informed by the existing literature regarding tobacco and alcohol, which highlights the impact of spatial access to tobacco and alcohol retailers and exposure to tobacco and alcohol marketing on smoking and drinking among youth and young adults. Prior research indicates that tobacco and alcohol retailers, as well as medical marijuana dispensaries, are disproportionately located in neighborhoods characterized by socioeconomic disadvantage and by higher proportions of racial/ethnic minorities and young adults. Moreover, retail marketing or point-of-sale practices may differentially target subpopulations and differ by neighborhood demography and local policy. This literature and the methods employed for studying the tobacco and alcohol market could inform research on the retail environment for marijuana, as current gaps exist. In particular, much of the existing literature involves cross-sectional research designs; longitudinal studies are needed. Moreover, standardized measures are needed for systematic monitoring of industry marketing practices and to conduct research examining neighborhood differences in exposure to retail marketing for marijuana and its contribution to use modality and frequency, alone and in combination with nicotine and alcohol. The use of standardized measures for tobacco and alcohol marketing have been critical to develop an evidence base from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies that document the impact of retail marketing on substance use by adolescents and adults. Similar research is needed to establish an evidence base to inform federal, state, and local regulations of marijuana. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Alcohol Advertising on Social Media: Examining the Content of Popular Alcohol Brands on Instagram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Padon, Alisa A; Whiteman, Shawn D; Hicks, Kristen K; Carreon, Amie K; Crowell, Jarrett R; Willingham, Kristen L; Merianos, Ashley L

    2018-06-11

    There is considerable evidence that exposure to alcohol marketing increases the likelihood of adolescents initiating and engaging in alcohol consumption. There is a paucity of research, however, specifically examining industry generated alcohol marketing occurring on social media/networking platforms. The purpose of this investigation was to analyze the content of promotional advertisements by alcohol brands on Instagram. For a 30-day period, Instagram profiles of 15 distinct alcohol brands were examined. Pictorial posts/updates from each profile were screen captured and individually documented. Approximately 184 distinct posts constituted our final sample. The Content Appealing to Youth Index was independently employed by two raters to assess each post. For each characteristic, Cohen's Kappa measures, and associated 95% confidence intervals, were calculated. Descriptive statistics were performed. Posts increased throughout the week and peaked on Thursday and Friday. The production value of the posts examined was generally high, frequently featuring color, texture, shine, contrast, faces, and action. Character appeals and use of youth-oriented genres were uncommon. Many of the posts used product appeals and physical benefits to consumption. The posts also emphasized the following rewarding appeal characteristics: positive emotional experiences, achievement, individuality, and camaraderie. The most commonly coded risk-related feature was inappropriate use. Conclusions/Importance: This investigation represents an initial attempt to provide insights into the content alcohol brands are including in their promotional materials on social networking sites.

  5. Importance of alcohol-related expectations and emotional expressivity for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol in alcohol-dependent patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justina Slavinskienė

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: Negative alcohol-related expectations, emotional impulse intensity and positive emotional expressiveness were significant even though quite weak triggers for alcohol-dependent patients’ different level of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. An assumption could be made that by changing these triggers it is possible to change addictive behavior.

  6. The party effect: Prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    Aims To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Design Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. Setting All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. Participants A sample of 2541 respondents with a mean age of 18.1 years (51.6% female) of which 1053 (41%) never had a whole drink of alcohol and 1727 (67%) never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion. Measurements Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all ads as “party” or “non-party” ads. Sociodemographics, sensation seeking, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Findings Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, about half (M = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were “party” ads. If both types of exposures (“party” and “non-party”) were included in the regression model, only “party” exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset (AOR=19.17; 95%CI 3.72–98.79) and binge drinking onset (AOR=3.87; 95%CI 1.07–13.99) after covariate control. Conclusions Adolescents and young adults with higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme had higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset, even after control of exposure to other types of alcohol advertisements. PMID:27343140

  7. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ido Erev

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/. The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction, but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.

  8. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  9. A randomized trial of three marketing strategies to disseminate a screening and brief alcohol intervention programme to general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E

    1999-09-01

    Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy for dissemination of SBI to GPs.

  10. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Peter J; Leung, Joanne; Deane, Frank P; Lyons, Geoffrey C B

    2016-11-01

    Despite clinical recommendations that further treatment is critical for successful recovery following drug and alcohol detoxification, a large proportion of clients fail to attend treatment after detoxification. In this study, individual factors and constructs based on motivational and volitional models of health behaviour were examined as predictors of post-detoxification treatment attendance. The sample consisted of 220 substance-dependent individuals participating in short-term detoxification programs provided by The Australian Salvation Army. The Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions were used to predict attendance at subsequent treatment. Follow-up data were collected for 177 participants (81%), with 104 (80%) of those participants reporting that they had either attended further formal treatment (e.g. residential rehabilitation programs, outpatient counselling) or mutual support groups in the 2 weeks after leaving the detoxification program. Logistic regression examined the predictors of further treatment attendance. The full model accounted for 21% of the variance in treatment attendance, with attitude and Implementation Intentions contributing significantly to the prediction. Findings from the present study would suggest that assisting clients to develop a specific treatment plan, as well as helping clients to build positive perceptions about subsequent treatment, will promote greater attendance at further treatment following detoxification. [Kelly PJ, Leung J, Deane FP, Lyons GCB. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:678-685]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  11. Use of marketing to disseminate brief alcohol intervention to general practitioners: promoting health care interventions to health promoters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F

    2000-11-01

    Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group.

  12. The party effect: prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D

    2017-01-01

    To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. A sample of 705 respondents who never had a whole drink of alcohol at baseline (mean age 16.9 years, 53.3% female) and a sample of 1036 who never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion (mean age 17.4 years, 55.8% female). Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all advertisements as 'party' or 'non-party' advertisements. Socio-demographics, sensation-seeking, alcohol expectancies and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, approximately half (median = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were 'party' advertisements. If both types of exposures ('party' and 'non-party') were included in the regression model, only 'party' exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 19.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.72-98.79] and binge drinking onset (AOR = 3.87; 95% CI = 1.07-13.99) after covariate control. Adolescents and young adults in the United States appear to have higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset if they have higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme, independently of the amount of exposure to alcohol advertisements with non

  13. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  14. Predicting Equity Markets with Digital Online Media Sentiment: Evidence from Markov-switching Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooijen, S.J.; Broda, S.A.

    2016-01-01

    The authors examine the predictive capabilities of online investor sentiment for the returns and volatility of MSCI U.S. Equity Sector Indices by including exogenous variables in the mean and volatility specifications of a Markov-switching model. As predicted by the semistrong efficient market

  15. Investigation of aggravating psychosocial factors on health and predictability of smoking and alcohol use in post adolescent students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Effrosyni Barmpagianni

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual.

  16. Prediction of non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease and liver fat content by serum molecular lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orešic, Matej; Hyötyläinen, Tuulia; Kotronen, Anna

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether analysis of lipids by ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled to MS allows the development of a laboratory test for non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease (NAFLD), and how a lipid-profile biomarker compares with the prediction of NAFLD and liver-fat content based...

  17. DFT-based prediction of reactivity of short-chain alcohol dehydrogenase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stawoska, I.; Dudzik, A.; Wasylewski, M.; Jemioła-Rzemińska, M.; Skoczowski, A.; Strzałka, K.; Szaleniec, M.

    2017-06-01

    The reaction mechanism of ketone reduction by short chain dehydrogenase/reductase, ( S)-1-phenylethanol dehydrogenase from Aromatoleum aromaticum, was studied with DFT methods using cluster model approach. The characteristics of the hydride transfer process were investigated based on reaction of acetophenone and its eight structural analogues. The results confirmed previously suggested concomitant transfer of hydride from NADH to carbonyl C atom of the substrate with proton transfer from Tyr to carbonyl O atom. However, additional coupled motion of the next proton in the proton-relay system, between O2' ribose hydroxyl and Tyr154 was observed. The protonation of Lys158 seems not to affect the pKa of Tyr154, as the stable tyrosyl anion was observed only for a neutral Lys158 in the high pH model. The calculated reaction energies and reaction barriers were calibrated by calorimetric and kinetic methods. This allowed an excellent prediction of the reaction enthalpies (R2 = 0.93) and a good prediction of the reaction kinetics (R2 = 0.89). The observed relations were validated in prediction of log K eq obtained for real whole-cell reactor systems that modelled industrial synthesis of S-alcohols.

  18. How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P

    2016-06-01

    This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = -.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = -.05 and -.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude-intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude-intention and SE-intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.

  19. Working Memory Ability Predicts Trajectories of Early Alcohol Use in Adolescents: The Mediational Role of Impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khurana, Atika; Romer, Dan; Betancourt, Laura M.; Brodsky, Nancy L.; Giannetta, Joan M.; Hurt, Hallam

    2012-01-01

    Aims 1) To evaluate the role of pre-existing weakness in working memory ability (WM) as a risk factor for early alcohol use as mediated by different forms of impulsivity. 2) To assess the adverse effects of progressive alcohol use on variations in WM over time. Design, Setting and Participants A community sample of 358 adolescents [48% males, Meanage(baseline) = 11.4± 0.87 years] from a longitudinal cohort design, assessed annually over four consecutive years with less than 6% attrition. Measurements Repeated assessments were conducted for the following key variables: WM (based on performance on four separate tasks), frequency of alcohol use (AU), and three forms of impulsivity, namely sensation seeking (SS), acting-without-thinking (AWT) and delay discounting (DD). Latent growth curve modeling procedures were used to identify individual trajectories of change for all key variables. Findings Weakness in WM (at baseline) significantly predicted both concurrent alcohol use and increased frequency of use over the four waves (p memory (WM) rather than a cause of it. Efforts to reduce early alcohol use should consider the distinct roles of different impulsivity dimensions, in addition to WM, as potential targets of intervention. PMID:23033972

  20. Alcohol and tobacco marketing: evaluating compliance with outdoor advertising guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Molly M; Cohen, Deborah A; Schonlau, Matthias; Farley, Thomas A; Bluthenthal, Ricky N

    2008-09-01

    Historically, the alcohol and tobacco industries have been the biggest users of outdoor advertising. However, the 1999 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) outlawed tobacco billboards and transit furniture (e.g., bus, bench) ads, and the Outdoor Advertising Association of America (OAAA) has pledged to voluntarily eliminate ads for alcohol and tobacco within 500 feet of schools, playgrounds, and churches. Outdoor advertisements were observed (2004-2005) in a sample of urban census tracts (106 in pre-Katrina southern Louisiana and 114 in Los Angeles County) to evaluate tobacco and alcohol advertisers' compliance with the MSA and the OAAA Code of Industry Principles. Data were analyzed in 2007-2008. More than one in four tobacco ads in Louisiana failed to comply with the MSA. In Los Angeles, 37% of alcohol ads and 25% of tobacco ads were located within 500 feet of a school, playground, or church; in Louisiana, roughly one in five ads promoting alcohol or tobacco fell within this distance. In Los Angeles, low-income status and the presence of a freeway in the tract were associated with 40% more alcohol and tobacco billboards near children. In Louisiana, each additional major roadway-mile was associated with 4% more tobacco ads-in violation of MSA-and 7% more small ads near schools, playgrounds, and churches; city jurisdiction accounted for 55% of MSA violations and more than 70% of the violations of OAAA guidelines. Cities must be empowered to deal locally with violations of the MSA. Legislation may be needed to force advertisers to honor their pledge to protect children from alcohol and tobacco ads.

  1. Awareness of alcohol advertisements and perceived influence on alcohol consumption: a qualitative study of Nigerian university students

    OpenAIRE

    Dumbili, EW; Williams, C

    2016-01-01

    Despite the growing alcohol marketing activities of the transnational alcohol industries in Nigeria, little research has focused on their effects on Nigerian youths. This study explores students’ awareness of electronic and outdoor alcohol advertisement on campus and around students’ off-campus residential and leisure sites, and the extent to which they perceive it to affect their drinking. Thirty-one in-depth interviews were conducted with male and female undergraduate students (aged 19-23 y...

  2. Recall of Point-of-Sale Marketing Predicts Cigar and E-Cigarette Use among Texas Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasch, Keryn E; Nicksic, Nicole E; Opara, Samuel C; Jackson, Christian; Harrell, Melissa B; Perry, Cheryl L

    2017-10-23

    While research has documented associations between recall of point-of sale tobacco marketing and youth tobacco use, much of the research is cross-sectional and focused on cigarettes. The present longitudinal study examined recall of tobacco marketing at the point-of-sale and multiple types of tobacco use six months later. The Texas Adolescent Tobacco Advertising and Marketing Surveillance System (TATAMS) is a large-scale, representative study of 6th, 8th, and 10th graders in 79 middle and high schools in five counties in Texas. Weighted logistic regression examined associations between recall of tobacco advertisements and products on display at baseline and ever use, current use, and susceptibility to use for cigarette, e-cigarette, cigar, and smokeless products six months later. Students' recall of signs marketing e-cigarettes at baseline predicted ever e-cigarette use and increased susceptibility to use e-cigarettes at follow-up across all store types. Recall of e-cigarette displays only predicted susceptibility to use e-cigarettes at follow-up, across all store types. Both recall of signs marketing cigars and cigar product displays predicted current and ever cigar smoking and increased susceptibility to smoking cigars at follow-up, across all store types. Recall of cigarette and smokeless product marketing and displays was not associated with tobacco use measures. The point-of-sale environment continues to be an important influence on youth tobacco use. Restrictions on point-of-sale marketing, particularly around schools, are warranted. Cross-sectional studies have shown that exposure to point-of-sale cigarette marketing is associated with use of cigarettes among youth, though longitudinal evidence of the same is sparse and mixed. Cross-sectional studies have found that recall of cigars, smokeless product, and e-cigarette tobacco marketing at point-of-sale is associated with curiosity about tobacco use or intentions to use tobacco among youth, but limited

  3. THE EFFECTS OF BANKRUPTCY ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF PRICE FORMATION PROCESSES ON WARSAW’S STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Fiedor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate how bankruptcy affects the market behaviour of prices of stocks on Warsaw’s Stock Exchange. As the behaviour of prices can be seen in a myriad of ways, we investigate a particular aspect of this behaviour, namely the predictability of these price formation processes. We approximate their predictability as the structural complexity of logarithmic returns. This method of analysing predictability of price formation processes using information theory follows closely the mathematical definition of predictability, and is equal to the degree to which redundancy is present in the time series describing stock returns. We use Shannon’s entropy rate (approximating Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy to measure this redundancy, and estimate it using the Lempel-Ziv algorithm, computing it with a running window approach over the entire price history of 50 companies listed on the Warsaw market which have gone bankrupt in the last few years. This enables us not only to compare the differences between predictability of price formation processes before and after their filing for bankruptcy, but also to compare the changes in predictability over time, as well as divided into different categories of companies and bankruptcies. There exists a large body of research analysing the efficiency of the whole market and the predictability of price changes enlarge, but only a few detailed studies analysing the influence of external stimulion the efficiency of price formation processes. This study fills this gap in the knowledge of financial markets, and their response to extreme external events.

  4. Critical issues of alcohol safety in the region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana Vasil’evna Aksyutina

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of the research into the economic and socio-demographic indicators associated with the production and consumption of alcoholic beverages. It discloses the analysis of the alcoholic beverage market structure in the Vologda Oblast. The authors have identified the threshold of the safe alcohol production volume in the region taking into account the World Health Organization standards of alcohol consumption and the share of illegally produced goods. The article states that the increased alcohol production contributes to the rise in tax revenues, but the state fiscal policy to regulate the alcoholic beverage market leads to an increase in the share of shadow turnover. The authors have calculated the economic loss connected with the illegal production of alcoholic beverages in the Vologda Oblast. The alcohol consumption is a destructive socio-demographic process and one of the threats to the health of the nation. Excessive alcohol consumption leads to alcohol dependence, regression of the society and increases the threat to national and economic security. The study reveals a direct correlation between the consumption of alcoholic beverages per capita and mortality rates in men and women of working age from the causes related to the consumption of alcoholic beverages. The study of the international experience to regulate alcohol consumption has showed the need to tighten state control in the sphere of production and turnover of alcoholic products. The conduct of the unified state alcohol policy substantiates the selection of the alcohol industry in the all-Russian classifier of economic activity types. The authors have elaborated the concept and conditions of alcoholic security from the point of view of economic growth and social development. The article substantiates the necessity to monitor alcohol safety indicators when considering the regional development. It presents the complex system of socio-economic and demographic

  5. Do child's psychosocial functioning, and parent and family characteristics predict early alcohol use? The TRAILS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Verhulst, Frank C; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2015-02-01

    Given the negative consequences of early alcohol use for health and social functioning, it is essential to detect children at risk of early drinking. The aim of this study is to determine predictors of early alcohol use that can easily be detected in Preventive Child Healthcare (PCH). We obtained data from the first two waves on 1261 Dutch adolescents who participated in TRAILS (TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey) at ages 10-14 years and from the PCH records regarding ages 4-10 years. Early adolescence alcohol use (age 10-14 years) was defined as alcohol use at least once at ages 10-12 years (wave 1) and at least once in the previous 4 weeks at ages 12-14 years (wave 2). Predictors of early alcohol use concerned parent and teacher reports at wave 1 and PCH registrations, regarding the child's psychosocial functioning, and parental and socio-demographic characteristics. A total of 17.2% of the adolescents reported early alcohol use. Predictors of early alcohol use were teacher-reported aggressive behaviour [odds ratios (OR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.86; 1.11-3.11], being a boy (OR 1.80, 95%-CI 1.31-2.56), being a non-immigrant (OR 2.31, 95%CI 1.05-5.09), and low and middle educational level of the father (OR 1.71, 95%CI 1.12-2.62 and OR 1.77, 95%CI 1.16-2.70, respectively), mutually adjusted. A limited set of factors was predictive for early alcohol use. Use of this set may improve the detection of early adolescence alcohol use in PCH. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  6. Critical issues of alcohol safety in the region

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Vasil’evna Aksyutina; Natal’ya Mikhailovna Ovsyankina

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents results of the research into the economic and socio-demographic indicators associated with the production and consumption of alcoholic beverages. It discloses the analysis of the alcoholic beverage market structure in the Vologda Oblast. The authors have identified the threshold of the safe alcohol production volume in the region taking into account the World Health Organization standards of alcohol consumption and the share of illegally produced goods. The article states t...

  7. State Alcohol Advertising Laws: Current Status and Model Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003

    The concern about alcohol marketing and underage drinking has been heightened by recent findings in the scientific research community. Studies have established that alcohol advertising exposure influences a young person's beliefs about alcohol and his/her intention to drink. They also suggest that advertising may have a direct impact on youth…

  8. Non-invasive separation of alcoholic and non-alcoholic liver disease with predictive modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan-Peter Sowa

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Currently, a major clinical challenge is to distinguish between chronic liver disease caused by metabolic syndrome (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, NAFLD from that caused by long term or excessive alcohol consumption (ALD. The etiology of severe liver disease affects treatment options and priorities for liver transplantation and organ allocation. Thus we compared physiologically similar NAFLD and ALD patients to detect biochemical differences for improved separation of these mechanistically overlapping etiologies. METHODS: In a cohort of 31 NAFLD patients with BMI below 30 and a cohort of ALD patient with (ALDC n = 51 or without cirrhosis (ALDNC n = 51 serum transaminases, cell death markers and (adipo-cytokines were assessed. Groups were compared with One-way ANOVA and Tukey's correction. Predictive models were built by machine learning techniques. RESULTS: NAFLD, ALDNC or ALDC patients did not differ in demographic parameters. The ratio of alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase--common serum parameters for liver damage--was significantly higher in the NAFLD group compared to both ALD groups (each p<0.0001. Adiponectin and tumor necrosis factor(TNF-alpha were significantly lower in NAFLD than in ALDNC (p<0.05 or ALDC patients (p<0.0001. Significantly higher serum concentrations of cell death markers, hyaluronic acid, adiponectin, and TNF-alpha (each p<0.0001 were found in ALDC compared to ALDNC. Using machine learning techniques we were able to discern NAFLD and ALDNC (up to an AUC of 0.9118±0.0056 or ALDC and ALDNC (up to an AUC of 0.9846±0.0018, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning techniques relying on ALT/AST ratio, adipokines and cytokines distinguish NAFLD and ALD. In addition, severity of ALD may be non-invasively diagnosed via serum cytokine concentrations.

  9. Sobering stories: narratives of self-redemption predict behavioral change and improved health among recovering alcoholics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlop, William L; Tracy, Jessica L

    2013-03-01

    The present research examined whether the production of a narrative containing self-redemption (wherein the narrator describes a positive personality change following a negative experience) predicts positive behavioral change. In Study 1, we compared the narratives of alcoholics who had maintained their sobriety for over 4 years with those of alcoholics who had been sober 6 months or less. When describing their last drink, the former were significantly more likely to produce a narrative containing self-redemption than the latter. In Study 2, we examined the relation between the profession of self-redemption and behavioral change using a longitudinal design, by following the newly sober alcoholics from Study 1 over time. Although indistinguishable at initial assessment, newly sober alcoholics whose narratives included self-redemption were substantially more likely to maintain sobriety in the following months, compared to newly sober alcoholics who produced nonredemptive narratives; 83% of the redemptive group maintained sobriety between assessments, compared to 44% of nonredemptive participants. Redemptive participants in Study 2 also demonstrated improved health relative to the nonredemptive group. In both studies, the effects of self-redemption on sobriety and health held after controlling for relevant personality traits, alcohol dependence, recovery program involvement, initial physical and mental health, and additional narrative themes. Collectively, these results suggest that the production of a self-redemptive narrative may stimulate prolonged behavioral change and thus indicate a potentially modifiable psychological process that exhibits a major influence on recovery from addiction. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  10. Psychopathy and the prediction of alcohol-related physical aggression: the roles of impulsive antisociality and fearless dominance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkley, Erica L; Giancola, Peter R; Lance, Charles E

    2013-02-01

    It is well established that individual difference factors modulate aggression under the acute effects of alcohol. In this investigation, we tested the hypothesis that one core dimension of psychopathy, Impulsive Antisociality, would modulate intoxicated aggression, whereas another dimension, Fearless Dominance, would not. Participants were 516 young social drinkers (253 men and 263 women). Psychopathy was measured using the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; Lilienfeld and Andrews, 1996). Following the consumption of either an alcohol or a placebo beverage, aggression was measured with a task in which participants administered and received electric shocks to/from a fictitious opponent under the guise of a competitive reaction-time task. Hierarchical regression analyses supported our hypothesis: Impulsive Antisociality predicted aggression under alcohol, whereas Fearless Dominance did not. Persons who tend to endorse antisocial and impulsive externalizing behaviors appear to be at greater risk for aggression under the acute influence of alcohol. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Mixed price and load forecasting of electricity markets by a new iterative prediction method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Daraeepour, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Load and price forecasting are the two key issues for the participants of current electricity markets. However, load and price of electricity markets have complex characteristics such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and multiple seasonality, to name a few (usually, more volatility is seen in the behavior of electricity price signal). For these reasons, much research has been devoted to load and price forecast, especially in the recent years. However, previous research works in the area separately predict load and price signals. In this paper, a mixed model for load and price forecasting is presented, which can consider interactions of these two forecast processes. The mixed model is based on an iterative neural network based prediction technique. It is shown that the proposed model can present lower forecast errors for both load and price compared with the previous separate frameworks. Another advantage of the mixed model is that all required forecast features (from load or price) are predicted within the model without assuming known values for these features. So, the proposed model can better be adapted to real conditions of an electricity market. The forecast accuracy of the proposed mixed method is evaluated by means of real data from the New York and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent load and price forecast techniques. (author)

  12. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  13. The commercial use of segmentation and predictive modeling techniques for database marketing in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, PC; Spring, PN; Hoekstra, JC; Leeflang, PSH

    Although the application of segmentation and predictive modeling is an important topic in the database marketing (DBM) literature, no study has yet investigated the extent of adoption of these techniques. We present the results of a Dutch survey involving 228 database marketing companies. We find

  14. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice Trovero

    Full Text Available Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs.

  15. Factores predictores de uso problemático de alcohol en personas atendidas en una sala de emergencia Predictive factors of alcohol use problems among patients visiting an emergency room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabián Fiestas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos. Valorar el efecto predictivo de características claves de pacientes atendidos en salas de emergencia para detectar casos de uso problemático de alcohol. Materiales y Métodos. La muestra de estudio estuvo constituida por 371 personas atendidas en el lapso de siete días completos de enero de 2005 en el servicio de emergencia de un hospital público de Lima, Perú. Se aplicó un cuestionario demográfico, el SIDUC/CICAD para uso reciente de sustancias psicoactivas en salas de emergencias (i.e., uso dentro de las seis horas previas a la atención y el AUDIT para uso problemático de alcohol en el último año. El análisis de regresión logística simple y multivariada permitió valorar el efecto predictor de la edad, sexo, especialidad del servicio de atención, presencia de daño físico y el uso reciente de alcohol para detectar casos problemáticos de su uso. Resultados. El odds de tener uso problemático de alcohol en los varones es 26 veces el odds de tener dicho problema entre las mujeres (pObjectives. To assess the predictive effect of key individual-level characteristics to identify cases of alcohol use problems among patients visiting an emergency room. Materials and methods. The study sample was composed of 371 people attending an emergency room in a public hospital in Lima, Peru, during a period of seven complete days in January, 2005. For data gathering, we used a questionnaire for demographic information, the SIDUC/CICAD for recent use (i.e., in the last 6 hours of psychoactive substances before arriving to the emergency room, and the AUDIT, to identify alcohol use problems in the last year. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive effect of age, sex, area of attention in the emergency room, presence of physical injuries and recent use of alcohol. Results. The odds of being a case of alcohol use problem for males is 26 times the odds of having that problem for females (p

  16. Predicting Post-Treatment-Initiation Alcohol Use among Patients with Severe Mental Illness and Alcohol Use Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.

    2009-01-01

    Few investigators studying alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of posttreatment alcohol outcomes. In the present study, a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model was used to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post-treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of…

  17. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  18. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  19. It is pleasant and heavy: convergence of visual contents in tobacco, alcohol and food marketing in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viacava, Keitiline R; Weydmann, Gibson J; de Vasconcelos, Mailton F; Jaboinski, Juliana; Batista, Graziele D; de Almeida, Rosa Maria M; Bizarro, Lisiane

    2016-09-01

    The tactical use of visuoperceptual content in marketing may encourage impulsive consumption of unhealthy products. In this study, the application of visuoperceptual content was compared in advertisements used by industries of tobacco, alcohol and food. The aim was to ascertain whether similarities exist in the strategies used as variables for the selection of commercial stimuli, such as color, position and size. Scion Image and Corel Draw Graphics Suite software were used to analyze the content of a non-probabilistic sample of advertising images (N = 150). Differences were identified in the use of the colors green (p = 0.04) and red (p = 0.01), but not in the use of the color blue (p = 0.64), suggesting that induction of feelings of pleasantness resulting from the use of the color blue may be associated with the advertising in the alcohol and tobacco industries. Regarding the position of the commercial stimuli, a predominance of the use of quadrants 'C' (p = 0.00) and 'D' (p = 0.01) was found in all three industries, indicating a similar use of areas perceived as being 'heavier'. As to the size, 78% of advertisements placed the commercial stimuli within a range of 0-25% of the total image. The results showed some similarities in the use of visuoperceptual content in advertisements for tobacco, alcohol and food, especially between tobacco and alcohol. The article offers a convergence analysis of these three industries altogether, providing additional subsidies for the formulation of protection policies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Social marketing and community mobilisation to reduce underage alcohol consumption in Australia: A cluster randomised community trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Bosco Charles; Williams, Joanne; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Osborn, Amber; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Leslie, Eva; Patton, George; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Toumbourou, John W

    2018-08-01

    In many countries adolescent alcohol use is a major health problem. To supplement national policies, it is important to trial community interventions as a potential strategy to prevent adolescent alcohol use. This study evaluated a multicomponent community intervention that included community mobilisation, social marketing, and the monitoring of alcohol sales to minors. Evaluation was a clustered randomised trial design with 14 intervention and 14 control communities. Prior to randomisation, communities were matched on socioeconomic status and location. Intervention communities were not blinded. 3545 Year 8 students (M = 12 years) were surveyed at baseline from 75 schools; 3377 students were surveyed post intervention in 2013 from 54 schools. It was hypothesised that the primary outcome, individual alcohol consumption in last 30 days, after the intervention would be 15% lower in intervention communities. Secondary outcomes were consumption in the past year and intention not to drink before age 18. The intervention communities showed larger relative reductions compared to the controls in last 30-day consumption and past year (10%), but not significantly different. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the intervention community (63%), compared to the controls (71%), reported intending to drink before 18 years old. Subgroup analysis identified regional and state differences for some secondary measures. Intervention assignment was associated with lower adolescent intention to drink before the age of 18. However, more intensive and longer-term intervention may be required to measure significant differences in behaviour change. ACTRN12612000384853. Rowland B, Toumbourou JW, Osborn A, et al. BMJ Open 2013;3:e002423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002423. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Social and Cultural Contexts of Alcohol Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhinaraset, May; Wigglesworth, Christina; Takeuchi, David T.

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol use and misuse account for 3.3 million deaths every year, or 6 percent of all deaths worldwide. The harmful effects of alcohol misuse are far reaching and range from individual health risks, morbidity, and mortality to consequences for family, friends, and the larger society. This article reviews a few of the cultural and social influences on alcohol use and places individual alcohol use within the contexts and environments where people live and interact. It includes a discussion of macrolevel factors, such as advertising and marketing, immigration and discrimination factors, and how neighborhoods, families, and peers influence alcohol use. Specifically, the article describes how social and cultural contexts influence alcohol use/misuse and then explores future directions for alcohol research. PMID:27159810

  2. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. What We Fund - Alcohol

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    NCDP

    Analysis of the regulatory environment (national ... Predicting and evaluating policy impact. PA. N ... constrain the use of a holistic approach engaging ... alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink industries, ... Alcohol and Other Drugs, 2003.

  4. Relationship between alcohol-related expectancies and anterior brain functioning in young men at risk for developing alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckel, A W; Hesselbrock, V; Bauer, L

    1995-04-01

    This experiment examined the relationship between anterior brain functioning and alcohol-related expectancies. Ninety-one young men at risk for developing alcoholism were assessed on the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire (AEQ) and administered neuropsychological and EEG tests. Three of the scales on the AEQ, including the "Enhanced Sexual Functioning" scale, the "Increased Social Assertiveness" scale, and items from the "Global/Positive Change scale," were used, because each of these scales has been found to discriminate alcohol-based expectancies adequately by at least two separate sets of investigators. Regression analysis found that anterior neuropsychological tests (including the Wisconsin Card Sorting test, the Porteus Maze test, the Controlled Oral Word Fluency test, and the Luria-Nebraska motor functioning tests) were predictive of the AEQ scale scores on regression analysis. One of the AEQ scales, "Enhanced Sexual Functioning," was also predicted by WAIS-R-Verbal scales, whereas the "Global/Positive" AEQ scale was predicted by the WAIS-R Performance scales. Regression analysis using EEG power as predictors found that left versus right hemisphere "difference" scores obtained from frontal EEG leads were predictive of the three AEQ scales. Conversely, parietal EEG power did not significantly predict any of the expectancy scales. It is concluded that anterior brain any of the expectancy scales. It is concluded that anterior brain functioning is associated with alcohol-related expectancies. These findings suggest that alcohol-related expectancy may be, in part, biologically determined by frontal/prefrontal systems, and that dysfunctioning in these systems may serve as a risk factor for the development of alcohol-related behaviors.

  5. African Journal of Drug & Alcohol Studies, 13(1), 2014 Copyright ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key Words: alcohol marketing, outdoor advertising, Africa, alcohol policy. Corresponding ... countries (World Health Organization,. 2011) ... pean data show, costs for health care can amount to ...... Besides the benefit of creating more space.

  6. The effectiveness of current French health warnings displayed on alcohol advertisements and alcoholic beverages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossou, Gloria; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Diouf, Jacques-François

    2017-08-01

    Many countries use health warnings in an attempt to regulate alcohol consumption. However, there is a lack of conclusive evidence in the research on alcohol warnings to support decision-making on effective health policies. This study explores the effectiveness of two mandatory warnings introduced in France in 1991 and 2007: the first (Alcohol abuse is harmful) is displayed on alcohol advertisements; the second (a pictogram) on bottles. Given that advertising content regulations have been implemented in some countries to reduce the attractiveness of alcohol marketing (e.g. the Evin law in France), this research also aims to explore whether such regulations can improve the effectiveness of warnings. In-depth interviews were conducted with 26 French people aged 15-29 years. The effectiveness of health warnings was assessed in terms of recall, noticeability, credibility, comprehension, responsiveness, and ability to encourage moderate drinking and abstinence during pregnancy. Participants were shown alcohol advertisements and bottles that either followed or challenged content regulations. The data were analyzed using double manual coding and NVivo software. While both warnings suffered from a lack of visibility and noticeability due to their size, location, and outdatedness and because of competition from marketing design elements, the warning on the advertisement that followed content regulations was most visible. Both warnings were considered to be informationally vague, lacking in credibility and ineffective in terms of making participants feel concerned and influencing consumption habits. Current French warnings are ineffective and require modification. Improvements are suggested regarding the design and content of warnings to help increase their effectiveness. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  7. Reassessing policy paradigms: A comparison of the global tobacco and alcohol industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Benjamin; Holden, Chris; Eckhardt, Jappe; Lee, Kelley

    2018-01-01

    Tobacco is widely considered to be a uniquely harmful product for human health. Since the mid-1990s, the strategies of transnational tobacco corporations to undermine effective tobacco control policy has been extensively documented through internal industry documents. Consequently, the sale, use and marketing of tobacco products are subject to extensive regulation and formal measures to exclude the industry from policy-making have been adopted in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. In contrast to tobacco, alcohol is subject to less stringent forms of regulation, and the alcohol industry continues to play a central role in policy-making in many countries and at the global level. This article examines whether there is a sufficient rationale for such different regulatory approaches, through a comparative analysis of the political economy of the tobacco and alcohol industries including the structure of the industries, and the market and political strategies they pursue. Despite some important differences, the extensive similarities which exist between the tobacco and alcohol industries in terms of market structure and strategy, and political strategy, call into question the rationale for both the relatively weak regulatory approach taken towards alcohol, and the continued participation of alcohol corporations in policy-making processes.

  8. Community mobilization and the framing of alcohol-related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herd, Denise

    2010-03-01

    The goal of this study was to describe how activists engaged in campaigns to change alcohol policies in inner city areas framed alcohol problems, and whether or not their frameworks reflected major models used in the field, such as the alcoholism as a disease model, an alcohol problems perspective, or a public health approach to alcohol problems. The findings showed that activists' models shared some aspects with dominant approaches which tend to focus on individuals and to a lesser extent on regulating alcohol marketing and sales. However, activists' models differed in significant ways by focusing on community level problems with alcohol; on problems with social norms regarding alcohol use; and on the relationship of alcohol use to illicit drugs.

  9. Methodology for predicting market transformation due to implementation of energy efficiency standards and labels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlia, T.M.I.

    2004-01-01

    There are many papers that have been published on energy efficiency standards and labels. However, a very limited number of articles on the subject have discussed the transformation of appliance energy efficiency in the market after the programs are implemented. This paper is an attempt to investigate the market transformation due to implementation of minimum energy efficiency standards and energy labels. Even though the paper only investigates room air conditioners as a case study, the method is also applicable for predicting market transformation for other household electrical appliances

  10. Positive alcohol use expectancies moderate the association between anxiety sensitivity and alcohol use across adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Allison M; Lejuez, Carl W; Felton, Julia W

    2018-06-01

    Anxiety sensitivity (AS), or the fear of anxious symptoms and the belief that these symptoms may have negative physical, social, and cognitive consequences, is one personality trait that emerges in early adolescence and may be linked to alcohol use. However, findings are equivocal as to whether elevated AS during adolescence directly predicts alcohol use. Adolescents do report increases in positive alcohol use expectancies during this developmental period, and these expectancies have been found to be significantly associated with alcohol use. The current study examined whether positive alcohol use expectancies and AS in early adolescence predicted changes in alcohol use throughout adolescence. This aim was examined via secondary data analyses from a longitudinal study examining the development of risk behaviors in adolescents. Results of univariate latent growth curve modeling suggest that AS alone was not a significant predictor of baseline alcohol use or change in use over time after controlling for gender, age, and self-reported anxiety. However, AS in early adolescence was found to be a significant predictor of increases in alcohol use across adolescence for youth who reported greater positive alcohol use expectancies. These results indicate that beliefs regarding the positive effects of alcohol use are an important moderator in the relation between AS and change in alcohol use during adolescence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Alcohol Expectancies Mediate and Moderate the Associations between Big Five Personality Traits and Adolescent Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Manuel I; Camacho, Laura; Mezquita, Laura; Villa, Helena; Moya-Higueras, Jorge; Ortet, Generós

    2015-01-01

    Personality and expectancies are relevant psychological factors for the development of adolescent alcohol use and misuse. The present study examined their direct, mediated and moderated effects on different drinking behaviors in adolescence. Personality domains of the five-factor model, positive and negative alcohol expectancies (AEs), alcohol use during the week and the weekend, and alcohol-related problems were assessed in a sample of 361 adolescents. Different personality dimensions were directly associated with specific alcohol outcomes: Extraversion, low Conscientiousness and low Openness were associated with weekend alcohol use; low Agreeableness was related to weekday use; whereas low Agreeableness, low Conscientiousness and Extraversion were associated with alcohol-related problems. In addition, positive AEs mediated the relationship between Extraversion and alcohol use, whereas both positive and negative expectancies mediated the association between Neuroticism and alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Finally, both types of expectancies interacted with Extraversion to predict alcohol problems. Our results highlight the importance of examining the complex interplay of comprehensive personality models and AEs to gain a better understanding of the development of different alcohol use and misuse patterns in adolescence.

  12. Unrecorded alcohol consumption: its economics and its effects on alcohol control in the Nordic countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordlund, S; Osterberg, E

    2000-12-01

    The starting point of this paper is the fact that no country has complete records of alcohol consumption. In addition to being a matter or statistical accuracy, unrecorded alcohol also plays an important role in alcohol policy discussions. Furthermore, its quantity is bound to basic economic laws. These latter two aspects are the main interest in this paper, which discusses, first, what is really meant by unrecorded alcohol consumption and what kind of categories are included in it. The next task is to discuss the economics of different categories of unrecorded alcohol and the mechanisms which lead to increases or decreases in them. The examples in this part of the paper come from the Nordic countries. Arguments about increased smuggling and illegal distilling have always been used against alcohol policy restrictions in the Nordic countries. Recently the level of travellers' alcohol imports and border trade have also been used for the same purpose. In the European Union the task to harmonize alcohol excise taxes is partly given to increased travellers' duty-free allowances and market forces. This policy has already led to reductions in alcohol taxation both in Denmark and Sweden.

  13. The relationship between exposure to alcohol-related content on Facebook and predictors of alcohol consumption among female emerging adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joseph; Prichard, Ivanka; Hutchinson, Amanda; Wilson, Carlene

    2014-12-01

    Consuming an unhealthy level of alcohol is a significant problem for some young women. Potential determinants of excess consumption include perceptions of usual consumption among peers-perceptions of what is "normal." The present study examined whether perceptions of social normative endorsement of drinking, operationalized by measures of perceived alcohol consumption of close friends (proximal norms), the consumption of the "average student" (distal norms), and the extent of alcohol-related content posted by peers on Facebook were related to alcohol-related attitudes and self-reported consumption. Female university students (n=129; Mage=21.48 years, SD=3.00) completed an online questionnaire assessing Facebook use, perceived alcohol-related norms, and self-reported alcohol attitudes and consumption. Perceptions of the consumption of the average female student were a negative predictor of attitudes. Positive alcohol attitudes, extent of own alcohol-related photographic posts on Facebook, average female student alcohol consumption, and report of male close friend consumption predicted self-report of own alcohol consumption. Interestingly, female close friend norms failed to predict consumption, whereas male close friend norms predicted consumption but not attitudes, suggesting the possibility of separate cognitive pathways for alcohol-related attitudes and behavior. This study builds on existing research by casting new light on predictors of alcohol-related attitudes, as well as describing the potential role of social networking sites such as Facebook in the formation of social norms and the modulation of drinking behavior.

  14. Father and son attachment styles in alcoholic and non-alcoholic families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mythili Hazarika

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The theory of attachment is important to understand a lot of human behaviour. Styles of attachment could be important predictors in developing dependence on alcoholism. Insecure attachment patterns could be significant risk factors for future alcohol use. Methods: Participants for this study consist of fathers with alcohol dependence syndrome (ADS from treatment centres and fathers from the community with no dependency on alcohol, and their sons (n=200. The Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST, socioeconomic status scale were administered, and attachment styles were derived by the Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ. We hypothesised a prior concept reflecting theoretical predictions for the association between attachment styles and alcohol in both the generations. Results: Statistics on SPSS-16 was used to test our hypotheses. As predicted, fathers with ADS had insecure attachments styles in comparison to the control group. Substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation were at an all-time low for the secure group. Conclusion: The findings from this study identify attachment styles as an influential factor in understanding the divergence between alcohol dependence in treatment seekers. The findings further imply that differential treatment may need to be provided taking into account one’s attachment representation to promote successful recovery. It also highlights the need to develop secure ties in children of alcoholic parents to protect them from use of substances as a coping and a learned mechanism. Limitations of the study and suggestions for further research are highlighted and implications for diagnosis and treatment are discussed.

  15. Prediction of Smoking, Alcohol, Drugs, and Psychoactive Drugs Abuse Based on Emotional Dysregulation and Child Abuse Experience in People with Borderline Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M GannadiFarnood

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This research was an attempt to predict the tendency of people having borderline personality traits to smoking, drinking alcohol, and taking psychoactive drugs based on emotional dysregulation and child abuse. Method: This study employed a correlation method which is categorized in descriptive category. A sample including 600 male and female bachelor students of Tabriz University was selected by cluster sampling. Then, high risk behaviors scale, Emotional dysregulation Scale, Child abuse scale, and borderline personality scale (STB were distributed among this group. Findings: Stepwise multiple regression analysis suggested that emotional dysregulation and child abuse significantly predicted varying degrees of smoking, drug, and alcohol usage. Conclusion: The research findings suggest the basic role of initial biological vulnerability in terms of emotional regulation (dysregulation and invalidating family environment (child abuse in the prediction of catching the disorder of borderline personality traits and producing high riskbehaviorssuch as alcohol drink and drug usage.

  16. Exposure to alcohol advertisements and teenage alcohol-related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenard, Jerry L; Dent, Clyde W; Stacy, Alan W

    2013-02-01

    This study used prospective data to test the hypothesis that exposure to alcohol advertising contributes to an increase in underage drinking and that an increase in underage drinking then leads to problems associated with drinking alcohol. A total of 3890 students were surveyed once per year across 4 years from the 7th through the 10th grades. Assessments included several measures of exposure to alcohol advertising, alcohol use, problems related to alcohol use, and a range of covariates, such as age, drinking by peers, drinking by close adults, playing sports, general TV watching, acculturation, parents' jobs, and parents' education. Structural equation modeling of alcohol consumption showed that exposure to alcohol ads and/or liking of those ads in seventh grade were predictive of the latent growth factors for alcohol use (past 30 days and past 6 months) after controlling for covariates. In addition, there was a significant total effect for boys and a significant mediated effect for girls of exposure to alcohol ads and liking of those ads in 7th grade through latent growth factors for alcohol use on alcohol-related problems in 10th grade. Younger adolescents appear to be susceptible to the persuasive messages contained in alcohol commercials broadcast on TV, which sometimes results in a positive affective reaction to the ads. Alcohol ad exposure and the affective reaction to those ads influence some youth to drink more and experience drinking-related problems later in adolescence.

  17. Exposure to Alcohol Advertisements and Teenage Alcohol-Related Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dent, Clyde W.; Stacy, Alan W.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study used prospective data to test the hypothesis that exposure to alcohol advertising contributes to an increase in underage drinking and that an increase in underage drinking then leads to problems associated with drinking alcohol. METHODS: A total of 3890 students were surveyed once per year across 4 years from the 7th through the 10th grades. Assessments included several measures of exposure to alcohol advertising, alcohol use, problems related to alcohol use, and a range of covariates, such as age, drinking by peers, drinking by close adults, playing sports, general TV watching, acculturation, parents’ jobs, and parents’ education. RESULTS: Structural equation modeling of alcohol consumption showed that exposure to alcohol ads and/or liking of those ads in seventh grade were predictive of the latent growth factors for alcohol use (past 30 days and past 6 months) after controlling for covariates. In addition, there was a significant total effect for boys and a significant mediated effect for girls of exposure to alcohol ads and liking of those ads in 7th grade through latent growth factors for alcohol use on alcohol-related problems in 10th grade. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adolescents appear to be susceptible to the persuasive messages contained in alcohol commercials broadcast on TV, which sometimes results in a positive affective reaction to the ads. Alcohol ad exposure and the affective reaction to those ads influence some youth to drink more and experience drinking-related problems later in adolescence. PMID:23359585

  18. Alcohol consumption and burden of disease in the Americas in 2012: implications for alcohol policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Kevin D; Monteiro, Maristela; Roerecke, Michael; Smith, Blake; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    To describe the volume and patterns of alcohol consumption up to and including 2012, and to estimate the burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption as measured in deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost in the Americas in 2012. Measures of alcohol consumption were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Information System on Alcohol and Health (GISAH). The burden of alcohol consumption was estimated in both deaths and DALYs lost based on mortality data obtained from WHO, using alcohol-attributable fractions. Regional groupings for the Americas were based on the WHO classifications for 2004 (according to child and adult mortality). Regional variations were observed in the overall volume of alcohol consumed, the proportion of the alcohol market attributable to unrecorded alcohol consumption, drinking patterns, prevalence of drinking, and prevalence of heavy episodic drinking, with inhabitants of the Americas consuming more alcohol (8.4 L of pure alcohol per adult in 2012) compared to the world average. The Americas also experienced a high burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption (4.7% of all deaths and 6.7% of all DALYs lost), especially in terms of injuries attributable to alcohol consumption. Alcohol is consumed in a harmful manner in the Americas, leading to a high burden of disease, especially in terms of injuries. New cost-effective alcohol policies, such as increasing alcohol taxation, increasing the minimum legal age to purchase alcohol, and decreasing the maximum legal blood alcohol content while driving, should be implemented to decrease the harmful consumption of alcohol and the resulting burden of disease.

  19. Impact of a new alcohol policy on homemade alcohol consumption and sales in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radaev, Vadim

    2015-05-01

    To describe the effects of Russian policy since 2006 affecting price and availability on the consumption of recorded and unrecorded alcohol, with specific reference to homemade alcohol, and to investigate other factors affecting homemade alcohol consumption and purchasing. Consumption and preferred beverage data were collected from RLMS-HSE nationwide panel surveys from 1994 to 2013, with a detailed analysis of 2012 data (18,221 respondents aged 16+ years). Official statistics on manufactured alcohol sales, regional price increase and real disposable income were used. Homemade distilled spirits (samogon) consumption decreased together with that of recorded and unrecorded manufactured spirits since 2000. The consumption of spirits was partially replaced by the consumption of beer and wine. These trends in alcohol consumption were interrupted in 2008-2013. The interruption was more likely affected by the economic crisis and recession than by the new alcohol policy. Social networks and availability of unrecorded alcohol were more important predictors of homemade alcohol consumption and purchasing than was a recorded alcohol price increase. Homemade alcohol consumption does not replace the declining market for recorded spirits in Russia. The effects of economic and social factors on homemade alcohol consumption are greater than are the short-term effects of the new alcohol policy. The very recent (2015) reduction of the minimum unit price of vodka may be premature. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  20. The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

    2016-08-01

    The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider

  1. Ethanol Exposure History and Alcoholic Reward Differentially Alter Dopamine Release in the Nucleus Accumbens to a Reward-Predictive Cue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorenza, Amanda M; Shnitko, Tatiana A; Sullivan, Kaitlin M; Vemuru, Sudheer R; Gomez-A, Alexander; Esaki, Julie Y; Boettiger, Charlotte A; Da Cunha, Claudio; Robinson, Donita L

    2018-06-01

    Conditioned stimuli (CS) that predict reward delivery acquire the ability to induce phasic dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens (NAc). This dopamine release may facilitate conditioned approach behavior, which often manifests as approach to the site of reward delivery (called "goal-tracking") or to the CS itself (called "sign-tracking"). Previous research has linked sign-tracking in particular to impulsivity and drug self-administration, and addictive drugs may promote the expression of sign-tracking. Ethanol (EtOH) acutely promotes phasic release of dopamine in the accumbens, but it is unknown whether an alcoholic reward alters dopamine release to a CS. We hypothesized that Pavlovian conditioning with an alcoholic reward would increase dopamine release triggered by the CS and subsequent sign-tracking behavior. Moreover, we predicted that chronic intermittent EtOH (CIE) exposure would promote sign-tracking while acute administration of naltrexone (NTX) would reduce it. Rats received 14 doses of EtOH (3 to 5 g/kg, intragastric) or water followed by 6 days of Pavlovian conditioning training. Rewards were a chocolate solution with or without 10% (w/v) alcohol. We used fast-scan cyclic voltammetry to measure phasic dopamine release in the NAc core in response to the CS and the rewards. We also determined the effect of NTX (1 mg/kg, subcutaneous) on conditioned approach. Both CIE and alcoholic reward, individually but not together, associated with greater dopamine to the CS than control conditions. However, this increase in dopamine release was not linked to greater sign-tracking, as both CIE and alcoholic reward shifted conditioned approach from sign-tracking behavior to goal-tracking behavior. However, they both also increased sensitivity to NTX, which reduced goal-tracking behavior. While a history of EtOH exposure or alcoholic reward enhanced dopamine release to a CS, they did not promote sign-tracking under the current conditions. These findings are

  2. Nalmefene: a new approach to the treatment of alcohol dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paille F

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available François Paille, Hervé Martini Department of Addiction Treatment, University Hospital, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France Abstract: Reduction of alcohol consumption is not yet a widely accepted treatment objective for alcohol-dependent patients, as abstinence is often considered to be the only possible objective in this situation. However, various studies have demonstrated the value of proposing these two options to such patients. Firstly, reduction of alcohol consumption very significantly reduces the risk of alcohol-related damage, and also modifies the patient's and the doctor's perception of the disease, resulting in improved access to care and better patient adherence with the proposed treatment objective and consequently better clinical results. Recent studies have shown that some medicinal products can help patients reduce their alcohol consumption. One such product, nalmefene, has been granted European marketing authorization and is now being released onto the market in various countries. The ESENSE 1 and 2 studies in alcohol-dependent patients showed that, in combination with BRENDA, a psychosocial intervention focusing on reinforcement of motivation and treatment adherence, nalmefene significantly reduced the number of heavy drinking days and mean daily total alcohol consumption versus placebo. This reduction was more marked in the marketing authorization target population, ie, patients with a high or very high drinking risk level according to World Health Organization criteria. Another original feature of this molecule is that it can be used as needed if the patient perceives a risk of drinking, which is a more flexible approach and more likely to ensure the patient's active involvement in the treatment of his/her disease. This molecule opens up interesting and original therapeutic prospects in the treatment of alcohol dependence. Keywords: alcohol dependence, reduction, consumption, damage reduction, drug therapy, nalmefene

  3. PER1 rs3027172 Genotype Interacts with Early Life Stress to Predict Problematic Alcohol Use, but Not Reward-Related Ventral Striatum Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranger, David A. A.; Ifrah, Chloé; Prather, Aric A.; Carey, Caitlin E.; Corral-Frías, Nadia S.; Drabant Conley, Emily; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Bogdan, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS) (n = 665), we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) as well as ventral striatum (VS) reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired). Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene × covariate and environment × covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p < 0.05, corrected) while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, ELS, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene × environment interactions. PMID:27065929

  4. PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacts with early life stress to predict problematic alcohol use, but not reward-related ventral striatum activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David eBaranger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (n=665, we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test as well as ventral striatum (VS reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired. Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene x covariate and environment x covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p<0.05, corrected while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, early life stress, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene x environment interactions.

  5. Personality and alcohol metacognitions as predictors of weekly levels of alcohol use in binge drinking university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Ailsa; Tran, Cathy; Weiss, Alexander; Caselli, Gabriele; Nikčević, Ana V; Spada, Marcantonio M

    2012-04-01

    This study investigated the relative contribution of the Big 5 personality factors and alcohol metacognitions in predicting weekly levels of alcohol use in binge drinking university students. No research to date has investigated whether either of these constructs predicts levels of weekly alcohol use in binge drinkers. A sample of university students (n=142) who were classified as binge drinkers were administered the following self-report instruments: NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI; Costa & McCrae, 1992), Positive Alcohol Metacognitions Scale (PAMS; Spada & Wells, 2008), Negative Alcohol Metacognitions Scale (NAMS; Spada & Wells, 2008), and Khavari Alcohol Test (KAT; Khavari & Farber, 1978). Pearson product-moment correlations showed that weekly levels of alcohol use were negatively correlated with agreeableness and conscientiousness and positively correlated with positive alcohol metacognitions about cognitive self-regulation, negative alcohol metacognitions about uncontrollability and negative alcohol metacognitions about cognitive harm. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that conscientiousness and positive alcohol metacognitions about cognitive self-regulation were the only two significant predictors of weekly levels of alcohol use when controlling for gender. These findings show that being male, low on conscientiousness and high on positive alcohol metacognitions about cognitive self-regulation raises the risk for increased weekly levels of alcohol use in binge drinking university students. The implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. African Journal of Drug & Alcohol Studies, 13(2), 2014 Copyright ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and social norms related to alcohol use, as well as people's opinions on ... influential alcohol marketing strategies, ... highly gendered, with men consuming .... erature and media reports was also con- .... in classes and during leisure time be-.

  7. Community Mobilization and the Framing of Alcohol-Related Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Herd

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to describe how activists engaged in campaigns to change alcohol policies in inner city areas framed alcohol problems, and whether or not their frameworks reflected major models used in the field, such as the alcoholism as a disease model, an alcohol problems perspective, or a public health approach to alcohol problems. The findings showed that activists’ models shared some aspects with dominant approaches which tend to focus on individuals and to a lesser extent on regulating alcohol marketing and sales. However, activists’ models differed in significant ways by focusing on community level problems with alcohol; on problems with social norms regarding alcohol use; and on the relationship of alcohol use to illicit drugs.

  8. Stress, alcohol use and work engagement among university workers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... workplace alcohol use and work engagement among 228 University of Nigeria, Nsukka, workers. The results of the regression analyses showed that job stress significantly predicted workplace alcohol use (â = .17, p < .01). Workplace alcohol use also significantly predicted employee work engagement (â = -.35, p < .001).

  9. Exploring Alcohol Policy Approaches to Prevent Sexual Violence Perpetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippy, Caroline; DeGue, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Sexual violence continues to be a significant public health problem worldwide with serious consequences for individuals and communities. The implementation of prevention strategies that address risk and protective factors for sexual violence at the community level are important components of a comprehensive approach, but few such strategies have been identified or evaluated. The current review explores one potential opportunity for preventing sexual violence perpetration at the community level: alcohol policy. Alcohol policy has the potential to impact sexual violence perpetration through the direct effects of excessive alcohol consumption on behavior or through the impact of alcohol and alcohol outlets on social organization within communities. Policies affecting alcohol pricing, sale time, outlet density, drinking environment, marketing, and college environment are reviewed to identify existing evidence of impact on rates of sexual violence or related outcomes, including risk factors and related health behaviors. Several policy areas with initial evidence of an association with sexual violence outcomes were identified, including policies affecting alcohol pricing, alcohol outlet density, barroom management, sexist content in alcohol marketing, and policies banning alcohol on campus and in substance-free dorms. We identify other policy areas with evidence of an impact on related outcomes and risk factors that may also hold potential as a preventative approach for sexual violence perpetration. Evidence from the current review suggests that alcohol policy may represent one promising avenue for the prevention of sexual violence perpetration at the community level, but additional research is needed to directly examine effects on sexual violence outcomes. PMID:25403447

  10. Alcohol: taking a population perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, William; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Stockwell, Tim; Jernigan, David; Naimi, Timothy; Gilmore, Ian

    2016-07-01

    Alcohol consumption is a global phenomenon, as is the resultant health, social and economic harm. The nature of these harms varies with different drinking patterns and with the societal and political responses to the burden of harm; nevertheless, alcohol-related chronic diseases have a major effect on health. Strong evidence exists for the effectiveness of different strategies to minimize this damage and those policies that target price, availability and marketing of alcohol come out best, whereas those using education and information are much less effective. However, these policies can be portrayed as anti-libertarian and so viewing them in the context of alcohol-related harm to those other than the drinker, such as the most vulnerable in society, is important. When this strategy is successful, as in Scotland, it has been possible to pass strong and effective legislation, such as for a minimum unit price for alcohol.

  11. An ecologically based model of alcohol-consumption decision making: evidence for the discriminative and predictive role of contextual reward and punishment information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R

    2009-05-01

    Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory.

  12. Perceived racial/ethnic discrimination, marketing, and substance use among young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Shyanika W; Mayo, Ashley; Ganz, Ollie; Perreras, Lexie; D'Silva, Joanne; Cohn, Amy

    2018-02-09

    Perceived experiences of discrimination have been linked to negative health behaviors including tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use across various racial/ethnic groups. Tobacco and alcohol marketing exposure have also been linked with substance use. This study examined the independent and interacting effects of perceived experiences of discrimination and exposure to alcohol and tobacco marketing, and receptivity to marijuana marketing on substance use in an online survey of a multiethnic sample of young adults in 6 metropolitan areas (n = 505). African Americans (mean (M) = 1.96, 9% 5CI [1.84, 2.09]) and Hispanics (M = 1.98, 95% CI [1.87, 2.09]) reported higher levels of perceived discrimination than Whites (M = 1.52, 95% CI [1.40, 1.64]), p marketing; Hispanics reported higher levels of exposure to alcohol marketing and receptivity to marijuana promotion. Discrimination and marketing exposure were independently associated with higher odds of all 3 outcomes, controlling for covariates (AOR from 2.1 to 3.4 for discrimination; AOR from 1.4 to 13.8 for marketing). Models showed a significant interaction of discrimination and tobacco marketing on past 30-day cigarette use (F = 5.5; p = .02). Individuals with high levels of tobacco marketing exposure were likely to report high past 30-day cigarette use regardless of level of discrimination, while those with low exposure were only at increased risk of reporting cigarette use at higher levels of discrimination. Both perceived discrimination and marketing exposure play a role in substance use. Interventions should consider discrimination as a significant risk factor underlying vulnerability to substance use among young adults.

  13. Predicting academic problems in college from freshman alcohol involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, P K; Sher, K J; Erickson, D J; DeBord, K A

    1997-03-01

    The present article examines the relation of problematic alcohol use to collegiate academic problems based on a systematic assessment of problematic alcohol use and college transcript data. The degree to which this prospective association can be explained by reference to third variables is also explored. These third variables include: students' high school academic achievement and aptitude, concurrent drug use, participation in deviant behaviors and students' investment or participation in the college experience. A sample of 444 (240 female) college freshman recruited for a longitudinal study of alcohol use was followed for 6 years. Alcohol and drug involvement, general deviance, academic investment, campus involvement and several background variables were assessed during the freshman year. Additional measures of high school aptitude and achievement as well as collegiate performance were calculated based on college transcript data from all institutions attended. A latent variable structural equation model revealed that problematic alcohol use during the freshman year correlated +.32 with collegiate academic problems. No evidence was found for a unique association between the two constructs when additional constructs were included in the model. Specifically, the association was substantially reduced when preexisting student differences traditionally associated with academic failure in college were taken into account. The inclusion of concurrent drug use and deviance also resulted in a significant reduction in the magnitude of the association. Although a substantial bivariate association exists between problematic alcohol use and academic problems during college, much of this association appears attributable to preexisting student differences on admission to college.

  14. Predicting the In-Hospital Responsiveness to Treatment of Alcoholics. Social Factors as Predictors of Outcome. Brain Damage as a Factor in Treatment Outcome of Chronic Alcoholic Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascia, George V.; And Others

    The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…

  15. Changes in alcohol-related inpatient care in Stockholm County in relation to socioeconomic status during a period of decline in alcohol consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Romelsjö, A; Diderichsen, Finn

    1989-01-01

    in 1975 and 1980 with the inpatient care registers for 1976 and 1981. In both years, all rates were highest for people outside the labor market and lowest among white collar employees. The employment rate for those aged 25-44 years and treated in 1981 for alcohol psychosis, alcoholism, and alcohol...... intoxication--already low in 1975--had drifted further downward by 1980. Total rates of inpatient treatment for alcohol-related diagnoses generally declined but the gap between blue collar workers and white collar workers widened. We conclude that the goal for national alcohol policy, suggested by the WHO...

  16. Alcohol imagery on New Zealand television

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeder Anthony I

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To examine the extent and nature of alcohol imagery on New Zealand (NZ television, a content analysis of 98 hours of prime-time television programs and advertising was carried out over 7 consecutive days' viewing in June/July 2004. The main outcome measures were number of scenes in programs, trailers and advertisements depicting alcohol imagery; the extent of critical versus neutral and promotional imagery; and the mean number of scenes with alcohol per hour, and characteristics of scenes in which alcohol featured. Results There were 648 separate depictions of alcohol imagery across the week, with an average of one scene every nine minutes. Scenes depicting uncritical imagery outnumbered scenes showing possible adverse health consequences of drinking by 12 to 1. Conclusion The evidence points to a large amount of alcohol imagery incidental to storylines in programming on NZ television. Alcohol is also used in many advertisements to market non-alcohol goods and services. More attention needs to be paid to the extent of alcohol imagery on television from the industry, the government and public health practitioners. Health education with young people could raise critical awareness of the way alcohol imagery is presented on television.

  17. Relationship between tonic and phasic craving for alcohol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily E. Hartwell

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Multiple measures are utilized to assess alcohol craving, often interchangeably. Little is known about the relationship between tonic and phasic craving. This study fills this gap in the literature by examining the association between tonic levels of alcohol craving and phasic craving for alcohol that is provoked by alcohol administration. Methods: Forty-three non-treatment seeking problem drinkers underwent an initial interview and two laboratory testing sessions, where either alcohol or a saline placebo was administered intravenously. Tonic craving was assessed via the Penn Alcohol Craving Scale (PACS and Obsessive Compulsive Drinking Scale (OCDS at the initial interview. Phasic craving was assessed during the laboratory sessions (i.e., alcohol and saline administrations, single blinded at baseline and at 3 subsequent breath alcohol concentrations (0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 g/dl. Results: There was a main effect of PACS in predicting phasic craving across both saline and alcohol administration conditions (p  0.10, predicted phasic craving during alcohol, as compared to saline administration. Conclusion: In sum, tonic craving captured by the OCDS was predictive of phasic craving during alcohol administration whereas the PACS more generally captured the increase in phasic craving. Therefore, these measures of tonic craving may function differently in capturing the experience of phasic craving. Implications for the utilization of the PACS and OCDS as well as assessments of craving in alcoholism research are discussed. Keywords: Alcohol, Craving, Assessment

  18. Alcohol consumption and burden of disease in the Americas in 2012: implications for alcohol policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin D. Shield

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE:To describe the volume and patterns of alcohol consumption up to and including 2012, and to estimate the burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption as measured in deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs lost in the Americas in 2012. METHODS: Measures of alcohol consumption were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO Global Information System on Alcohol and Health (GISAH. The burden of alcohol consumption was estimated in both deaths and DALYs lost based on mortality data obtained from WHO, using alcohol-attributable fractions. Regional groupings for the Americas were based on the WHO classifications for 2004 (according to child and adult mortality. RESULTS: Regional variations were observed in the overall volume of alcohol consumed, the proportion of the alcohol market attributable to unrecorded alcohol consumption, drinking patterns, prevalence of drinking, and prevalence of heavy episodic drinking, with inhabitants of the Americas consuming more alcohol (8.4 L of pure alcohol per adult in 2012 compared to the world average. The Americas also experienced a high burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption (4.7% of all deaths and 6.7% of all DALYs lost, especially in terms of injuries attributable to alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol is consumed in a harmful manner in the Americas, leading to a high burden of disease, especially in terms of injuries. New cost-effective alcohol policies, such as increasing alcohol taxation, increasing the minimum legal age to purchase alcohol, and decreasing the maximum legal blood alcohol content while driving, should be implemented to decrease the harmful consumption of alcohol and the resulting burden of disease.

  19. Public awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer in England in 2015: a population-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buykx, Penny; Li, Jessica; Gavens, Lucy; Hooper, Lucie; Lovatt, Melanie; Gomes de Matos, Elena; Meier, Petra; Holmes, John

    2016-11-30

    Public knowledge of the association between alcohol and cancer is reported to be low. We aimed to provide up-to-date evidence for England regarding awareness of the link between alcohol and different cancers and to determine whether awareness differs by demographic characteristics, alcohol use, and geographic region. A representative sample of 2100 adults completed an online survey in July 2015. Respondents were asked to identify which health outcomes, including specific cancers, may be caused by alcohol consumption. Logistic regressions explored whether demographic, alcohol use, and geographic characteristics predicted correctly identifying alcohol-related cancer risk. Unprompted, 12.9% of respondents identified cancer as a potential health outcome of alcohol consumption. This rose to 47% when prompted (compared to 95% for liver disease and 73% for heart disease). Knowledge of the link between alcohol and specific cancers varied between 18% (breast) and 80% (liver). Respondents identified the following cancers as alcohol-related where no such evidence exists: bladder (54%), brain (32%), ovarian (17%). Significant predictors of awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer were being female, more highly educated, and living in North-East England. There is generally low awareness of the relationship between alcohol consumption and cancer, particularly breast cancer. Greater awareness of the relationship between alcohol and breast cancer in North-East England, where a mass media campaign highlighted this relationship, suggests that population awareness can be influenced by social marketing.

  20. Public awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer in England in 2015: a population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny Buykx

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public knowledge of the association between alcohol and cancer is reported to be low. We aimed to provide up-to-date evidence for England regarding awareness of the link between alcohol and different cancers and to determine whether awareness differs by demographic characteristics, alcohol use, and geographic region. Methods A representative sample of 2100 adults completed an online survey in July 2015. Respondents were asked to identify which health outcomes, including specific cancers, may be caused by alcohol consumption. Logistic regressions explored whether demographic, alcohol use, and geographic characteristics predicted correctly identifying alcohol-related cancer risk. Results Unprompted, 12.9% of respondents identified cancer as a potential health outcome of alcohol consumption. This rose to 47% when prompted (compared to 95% for liver disease and 73% for heart disease. Knowledge of the link between alcohol and specific cancers varied between 18% (breast and 80% (liver. Respondents identified the following cancers as alcohol-related where no such evidence exists: bladder (54%, brain (32%, ovarian (17%. Significant predictors of awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer were being female, more highly educated, and living in North-East England. Conclusion There is generally low awareness of the relationship between alcohol consumption and cancer, particularly breast cancer. Greater awareness of the relationship between alcohol and breast cancer in North-East England, where a mass media campaign highlighted this relationship, suggests that population awareness can be influenced by social marketing.

  1. Maternal factors predicting cognitive and behavioral characteristics of children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie A; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M

    2013-06-01

    To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs). Multivariate correlation techniques were used with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first-grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and used in structural equation models (SEMs) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and nonverbal) and behavior. A first SEM using only 7 maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05) but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status [SES], and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Although other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD.

  2. Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in the WHO African Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Shield, Kevin; Kraicer-Melamed, Hannah; Ferreira-Borges, Carina; Rehm, Jürgen

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region, by country. First, a comprehensive systematic literature search was performed to identify all published and unpublished studies. Then, several meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted to estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population for countries in the WHO African Region with two or more studies available. Lastly, for countries with less than two studies or no known data predictions were obtained using regression modelling. The estimated prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population ranged from 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-2.8%; Equatorial Guinea) to 12.6% (95% CI: 9.9-15.4%; Cameroon) in Central Africa, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3%; Seychelles) to 20.5% (95% CI: 16.4-24.7%; Uganda) in Eastern Africa, 5.7% (95% CI: 4.4-7.1%; Botswana) to 14.2% (95% CI: 11.1-17.3%; Namibia) in Southern Africa, 6.6% (95% CI: 5.0-8.3%; Mauritania) to 14.8% (95% CI: 11.6-17.9%; Sierra Leone) in Western Africa, and 4.3% (95% CI: 3.2-5.3%; Algeria) in Northern Africa. The high prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy in some African countries calls for educational campaigns, screening and targeted interventions for women of childbearing age. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The brazilian alcohol program in the national energy context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, A. de; Araujo, J.L.R.H. de

    1987-01-01

    The new national as well as international energy context demands revision of the Brazilian Alcohol Program. This revision should aim at the preservation of alcohol as an energy source while reducing subsidies. To this end a moratorium on new distilleries should be enforced till the middle of the next decade, accompanied by a policy focusing on cost reductions and improvements in productivity aimed at making alcohol competitive in the middle term, as well as a motor fuel policy which acts on demand and makes this moratorium viable while preserving the existing production structure. Concrete mechanisms to implement such a policy are proposed which segment the market for new vehicles and preserve the stability of alcohol and gasoline markets for existing vehicles. The effects of this policy were analyzed through simulation of 7 scenarios through the year 2005, which showed its feasibility; the continuation of the present policy, on the other hand, implies heavy additional subsidies. (author)

  4. Voluntary temporary abstinence from alcohol during "Dry January" and subsequent alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Visser, Richard O; Robinson, Emily; Bond, Rod

    2016-03-01

    Research suggests that temporary abstinence from alcohol may convey physiological benefits and enhance well-being. The aim of this study was to address a lack of information about: (a) correlates of successful completion of a planned period of abstinence, and (b) how success or failure in planned abstinence affects subsequent alcohol consumption. 857 British adults (249 men, 608 women) participating in the "Dry January" alcohol abstinence challenge completed a baseline questionnaire, a 1-month follow-up questionnaire, and a 6-month follow-up questionnaire. Key variables assessed at baseline included measures of alcohol consumption and drink refusal self-efficacy (DRSE). In bivariate analysis, success during Dry January was predicted by measures of more moderate alcohol consumption and greater social DRSE at baseline. Multivariate analyses revealed that success during Dry January was best predicted by a lower frequency of drunkenness in the month prior to Dry January. Structural equation modeling revealed that participation in Dry January was related to reductions in alcohol consumption and increases in DRSE among all respondents at 6-month follow-up, regardless of success, but indicated that these changes were more likely among people who successfully completed the challenge. The findings suggest that participation in abstinence challenges such as Dry January may be associated with changes toward healthier drinking and greater DRSE, and is unlikely to result in undesirable "rebound effects": very few people reported increased alcohol consumption following a period of voluntary abstinence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOVAKIAN TIMBER TRADE ON GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Gejdoš

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management, prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.

  6. Predictive Effects of Good Self-Control and Poor Regulation on Alcohol-Related Outcomes: Do Protective Behavioral Strategies Mediate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Matthew R.; Kite, Benjamin A.; Henson, James M.

    2016-01-01

    In the present study, we examined whether use of protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between self-control constructs and alcohol-related outcomes. According to the two-mode model of self-control, good self-control (planfulness; measured with Future Time Perspective, Problem Solving, and Self-Reinforcement) and poor regulation (impulsivity; measured with Present Time Perspective, Poor Delay of Gratification, Distractibility) are theorized to be relatively independent constructs rather than opposite ends of a single continuum. The analytic sample consisted of 278 college student drinkers (68% women) who responded to a battery of surveys at a single time point. Using a structural equation model based on the two-mode model of self-control, we found that good self-control predicted increased use of three types of protective behavioral strategies (Manner of Drinking, Limiting/Stopping Drinking, and Serious Harm Reduction). Poor regulation was unrelated to use of protective behavioral strategies, but had direct effects on alcohol use and alcohol problems. Further, protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between good self-control and alcohol use. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22663345

  7. Predicting alcohol consumption and binge drinking in company employees: an application of planned behaviour and self-determination theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, Martin S; Lonsdale, Adam J; Hein, Vello; Koka, Andre; Lintunen, Taru; Pasi, Heidi; Lindwall, Magnus; Rudolfsson, Lisa; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

    2012-05-01

    This study tested an integrated model of the psychosocial determinants of alcohol-related behaviour among company employees from four nations. A motivational sequence was proposed in which motivational orientations from self-determination theory influenced intentions to consume alcohol within guideline limits and alcohol-related behaviour via the mediation of the theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). A three-wave prospective design using self-reported psychological and behavioural measures. Company employees (N= 486, males = 225, females = 261; M age = 30.41, SD= 8.31) from four nations (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and UK) completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivation from self-determination theory, attitudes, subjective norms, PBC, intentions from the theory of planned behaviour, and self-reported measures of past alcohol consumption and binge-drinking occasions at the first time point (time 1). Follow-up psychological and behavioural measures were taken one month later (time 2) and follow-up behavioural measures taken a further 2 months later (time 3). Path analyses supported the motivational sequence with identified regulation (time 1), predicting intentions (time 1), and alcohol units consumed (time 2). The effects were indirect via the mediation of attitudes and PBC (time 1). A similar pattern of effects was found for the effect of time 2 psychological variables on time 3 units of alcohol consumed. There was little support for the effects of the psychological variables on binge-drinking behaviour. Findings provide new information on the psychosocial determinants of alcohol behaviour in company employees and the processes involved. Results may provide impetus for the development of interventions to reduce alcohol consumption. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

    2018-05-01

    In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Cingulate cortex functional connectivity predicts future relapse in alcohol dependent individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmin Zakiniaeiz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing illness. Alcohol and stress cues have consistently been shown to increase craving and relapse risk in recovering alcohol dependent (AUD patients. However, differences in functional connectivity in response to these cues have not been studied using data-driven approaches. Here, voxel-wise connectivity is used in a whole-brain investigation of functional connectivity differences associated with alcohol and stress cues and to examine whether these differences are related to subsequent relapse. In Study 1, 45, 4- to 8-week abstinent, recovering AUD patients underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during individualized imagery of alcohol, stress, and neutral cues. Relapse measures were collected prospectively for 90 days post-discharge from inpatient treatment. AUD patients showed blunted anterior (ACC, mid (MCC and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC, voxel-wise connectivity responses to stress compared to neutral cues and blunted PCC response to alcohol compared to neutral cues. Using Cox proportional hazard regression, weaker connectivity in ACC and MCC during neutral exposure was associated with longer time to relapse (better recovery outcome. Similarly, greater connectivity in PCC during alcohol-cue compared to stress cue was associated with longer time to relapse. In Study 2, a sub-group of 30 AUD patients were demographically-matched to 30 healthy control (HC participants for group comparisons. AUD compared to HC participants showed reduced cingulate connectivity during alcohol and stress cues. Using novel data-driven approaches, the cingulate cortex emerged as a key region in the disruption of functional connectivity during alcohol and stress-cue processing in AUD patients and as a marker of subsequent alcohol relapse.

  10. Content Themes of Alcohol Advertising in U.S. Television-Latent Class Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Schoeppe, Franziska; Campbell, Julie; Braam, Marloes W G; Stoolmiller, Michael; Sargent, James D

    2015-09-01

    There is little alcohol research that reports on the thematic contents of contemporary alcohol advertisements in U.S. television. Studies of alcohol ads from 2 decades ago did not identify "Partying" as a social theme. Aim of this study was to describe and classify alcohol advertisements aired in national television in terms of contents, airing times, and channel placements and to identify different marketing strategies of alcohol brands. Content analysis of all ads from the top 20 U.S. beer and spirit brands aired between July 2009 and June 2011. These were 581 unique alcohol ads accounting for 272,828 (78%) national television airings. Ads were coded according to predefined definitions of 13 content areas. A latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to define content cluster themes and determine alcoholic brands that were more likely to exploit these themes. About half of the advertisements (46%) were aired between 3 am and 8 pm, and the majority were placed either in Entertainment (40%) and Sports (38%) channels. Beer ads comprised 64% of the sample, with significant variation in airing times and channels between types of products and brands. LCA revealed 5 content classes that exploited the "Partying," "Quality," "Sports," "Manly," and "Relax" themes. The partying class, indicative of ad messages surrounding partying, love, and sex, was the dominant theme comprising 42% of all advertisements. Ads for alcopops, flavored spirits, and liqueur were more likely to belong to the party class, but there were also some beer brands (Corona, Heineken) where more than 67% of ads exploited this theme. This is the first analysis to identify a partying theme to contemporary alcohol advertising. Future analyses can now determine whether exposure to that or other themes predicts alcohol misuse among youth audiences. Copyright © 2015 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  11. Alcohol Advertising and Motor Vehicle Fatalities

    OpenAIRE

    Henry Saffer

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to empirically estimate the effect of alcohol advertising on motor vehicle fatalities. The concept of an industry level advertising response function is developed and other empirical issues in estimating the effects of advertising are reviewed. The data set consists of quarterly observations, from 1986 to 1989, for 75 advertising markets in the United States and includes 1200 observations. Since motor vehicle fatalities and alcohol advertising are jointly determin...

  12. Parents' and students' perceptions of college alcohol risk: the role of parental risk perception in intentions to communicate about alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napper, Lucy E; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; LaBrie, Joseph W

    2015-03-01

    The current study aims to examine discrepancies in parents' and college students' perceptions of alcohol risk and the role of perceived risk in predicting parents' intentions to discuss alcohol with their child. In total, 246 college student-parent dyads (56.1% female students, 77.2% mothers) were recruited from a mid-size university. Participants completed measures of absolute likelihood, comparative likelihood, and severity of alcohol consequences. In comparison to students, parents perceived the risks of alcohol poisoning (pacademic impairment (pparents rated the majority of alcohol consequences (e.g., passing out, regrettable sexual situation, throwing up) as more severe than students (all psparents tended to be more optimistic than their child about the comparative likelihood of alcohol consequences. After controlling for demographics and past alcohol communication, greater absolute likelihood (β=.20, p=.016) and less confidence in knowledge of student behavior (β=.20, p=.013) predicted greater intentions to discuss alcohol. Providing parents of college students with information about college drinking norms and the likelihood of alcohol consequences may help prompt alcohol-related communication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. South Korean alcohol free associations: negative expectancy not predicting drinks per occasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Benjamin J; Graham, Deborah; Cottrell, David; Kim, Kyung-Yong

    2012-06-01

    Cultural and biological particulars existing in East Asian countries are likely to mediate differences in the alcohol consumption experience. Despite this no research to date has directly explored the alcohol free association or expectancy of any East Asian nations. The current research aims to provide a set of South Korean alcohol expectancies. Two hundred and thirty-seven South Koreans participated in an alcohol free association test and completed a demographic survey. The results both confirmed and contradicted areas of past alcohol expectancy research. There appears to be differences in associates with high probability of recall and alcohol expectancy, where negative, negative sedating and sedating expectancy categories were not found to be predictors of South Korean drinker level. The results suggest that South Koreans have a more even level of negative expectancy across all drinker categories, possibly due to a combination of linguistic, cultural and biological difference found among this population. The results provide a list of South Korean alcohol free association norms for future alcohol research in the region, with the results also underlining the need for alcohol free association tests among East Asian nations. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  14. Alcohol brand use of youth-appealing advertising and consumption by youth and adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alisa A. Padon

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been shown to be an important contributor to the problem of underage drinking in the U.S. More work is needed on identifying and minimizing content with particular appeal to youth. Design and Methods: We tested the association between the youth-appeal of marketing content of televised alcohol advertisements and the brand-specific alcohol consumption of both underage youth and adults. We used existing data from three sources: a brand-specific alcohol consumption survey among underage youth (N=1032, a brand-specific alcohol consumption survey among adults (N ~13,000, and an analysis of content appealing to youth (CAY in a sample of televised alcohol advertisements (n=96 aired during the youth survey. The association between CAY scores for the 96 alcohol ads and youth (age 13-20 versus adult (age 21+ consumption of those ads’ brands was tested through bivariate and multivariate models. Results: Brand CAY scores were (a positively associated with brand-specific youth consumption after controlling for adult brand consumption; (b positively associated with a ratio of youth-toadult brand-specific consumption; and (c not associated with adult brand consumption. Conclusions: Alcohol brands with youth-appealing advertising are consumed more often by youth than adults, indicating that these ads may be more persuasive to relatively younger audiences, and that youth are not simply mirroring adult consumption patterns in their choice of brands. Future research should consider the content of alcohol advertising when testing marketing effects on youth drinking, and surveillance efforts might focus on brands popular among youth.

  15. Alcohol brand use of youth-appealing advertising and consumption by youth and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padon, Alisa A; Rimal, Rajiv N; Siegel, Michael; DeJong, William; Naimi, Timothy S; JernFigan, David H

    2018-02-05

    Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been shown to be an important contributor to the problem of underage drinking in the U.S. More work is needed on identifying and minimizing content with particular appeal to youth. We tested the association between the youth-appeal of marketing content of televised alcohol advertisements and the brand-specific alcohol consumption of both underage youth and adults. We used existing data from three sources: a brand-specific alcohol consumption survey among underage youth ( N =1032), a brand-specific alcohol consumption survey among adults ( N ~13,000), and an analysis of content appealing to youth (CAY) in a sample of televised alcohol advertisements ( n =96) aired during the youth survey. The association between CAY scores for the 96 alcohol ads and youth (age 13-20) versus adult (age 21+) consumption of those ads' brands was tested through bivariate and multivariate models. Brand CAY scores were (a) positively associated with brand-specific youth consumption after controlling for adult brand consumption; (b) positively associated with a ratio of youth-toadult brand-specific consumption; and (c) not associated with adult brand consumption. Alcohol brands with youth-appealing advertising are consumed more often by youth than adults, indicating that these ads may be more persuasive to relatively younger audiences, and that youth are not simply mirroring adult consumption patterns in their choice of brands. Future research should consider the content of alcohol advertising when testing marketing effects on youth drinking, and surveillance efforts might focus on brands popular among youth.

  16. An audit of alcohol brand websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Ross

    2011-11-01

    The study investigated the nature and content of alcohol brand websites in the UK. The research involved an audit of the websites of the 10 leading alcohol brands by sales in the UK across four categories: lager, spirits, Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages and cider/perry. Each site was visited twice over a 1-month period with site features and content recorded using a pro-forma. The content of websites was then reviewed against the regulatory codes governing broadcast advertising of alcohol. It was found that 27 of 40 leading alcohol brands had a dedicated website. Sites featured sophisticated content, including sports and music sections, games, downloads and competitions. Case studies of two brand websites demonstrate the range of content features on such sites. A review of the application of regulatory codes covering traditional advertising found some content may breach the codes. Study findings illustrate the sophisticated range of content accessible on alcohol brand websites. When applying regulatory codes covering traditional alcohol marketing channels it is apparent that some content on alcohol brand websites would breach the codes. This suggests the regulation of alcohol brand websites may be an issue requiring attention from policymakers. Further research in this area would help inform this process. © 2010 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  17. Is it time to ban alcohol advertising?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Peter

    2009-04-01

    Children and adolescents are particularly vulnerable to the harmful effects of alcohol, with heavy drinking risking impaired brain development and future alcohol dependence. Advertisements increase expectancies about alcohol, leading to a greater likelihood of drinking. A systematic review of 13 longitudinal studies of over 38,000 young people found convincing evidence of an impact of media exposure and alcohol advertising on subsequent alcohol use, including initiation of drinking and heavier drinking among existing drinkers. All European countries, with the exception of the UK, have a ban on one or more types of advertising. Since self-regulation is reported as failing to prevent marketing which has an impact on younger people, and since advertising commonly crosses country borders, there is an argument to approximate advertising rules across Europe banning alcohol advertising targeted at young people, a highly cost-effective measure to reduce harmful alcohol use, and one supported by European citizens and case law.

  18. The Dow is Killing Me: Risky Health Behaviors and the Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotti, Chad; Dunn, Richard A; Tefft, Nathan

    2015-07-01

    We investigate how risky health behaviors and self-reported health vary with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and during stock market crashes. Because stock market indices are leading indicators of economic performance, this research contributes to our understanding of the macroeconomic determinants of health. Existing studies typically rely on the unemployment rate to proxy for economic performance, but this measure captures only one of many channels through which the economic environment may influence individual health decisions. We find that large, negative monthly DJIA returns, decreases in the level of the DJIA, and stock market crashes are widely associated with worsening self-reported mental health and more cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and fatal car accidents involving alcohol. These results are consistent with predictions from rational addiction models and have implications for research on the association between consumption and stock prices. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Perceptions of Alcohol Advertising Among High Risk Drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Xuan, Ziming; Babor, Thomas F

    2018-01-03

    Individuals who are particularly vulnerable to the influence of alcohol advertising, such as youth, need special protections, yet little research has been done to determine if other vulnerable groups exist. Secondary data analysis was conducted to determine if perceptions of alcohol advertising differ between groups based on their alcohol use and whether the definition of "vulnerable" should be expanded beyond demographic categories. Students (n = 326) from 2 U.S. colleges viewed 5 alcohol ads and rated them using a scale designed to detect violations of the alcohol industry's self-regulated marketing codes. Individuals with a history of excessive alcohol use, as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), were considered potentially vulnerable to alcohol advertising and were compared against individuals without a history of excessive alcohol use. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to determine between-group differences in 4 dependent variables (ad appeal, perceived alcohol consumption, perceived excessive drinking, and perceived responsible drinking). All models were adjusted for age, race, ethnicity, sex, and parental alcohol use. AUDIT risk categories were positively associated with ad appeal (p advertising.

  20. Stock Market Prediction on High-Frequency Data Using Generative Adversarial Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingyu Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important issue in the financial world, as it contributes to the development of effective strategies for stock exchange transactions. In this paper, we propose a generic framework employing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM and convolutional neural network (CNN for adversarial training to forecast high-frequency stock market. This model takes the publicly available index provided by trading software as input to avoid complex financial theory research and difficult technical analysis, which provides the convenience for the ordinary trader of nonfinancial specialty. Our study simulates the trading mode of the actual trader and uses the method of rolling partition training set and testing set to analyze the effect of the model update cycle on the prediction performance. Extensive experiments show that our proposed approach can effectively improve stock price direction prediction accuracy and reduce forecast error.

  1. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  2. Content Themes of Alcohol Advertising in US Television — Latent Class Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Schoeppe, Franziska; Campbell, Julie; Braam, Marloes W.G.; Stoolmiller, Michael; Sargent, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Background There is little alcohol research that reports on the thematic contents of contemporary alcohol advertisements in US television. Studies of alcohol ads from two decades ago did not identify “partying” as a social theme. Aim of the present study was to describe and classify alcohol advertisements aired in national television in terms of contents, airing times, and channel placements and to identify different marketing strategies of alcohol brands. Methods Content analysis of all ads from the top 20 US beer and spirit brands aired between July 2009 and June 2011. These were 581 unique alcohol ads accounting for 272,828 (78%) national television airings. Ads were coded according to predefined definitions of 13 content areas. A latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to define content cluster themes and determine alcoholic brands that were more likely to exploit these themes. Results About half of the advertisements (46%) were aired between 3am and 8pm, and the majority were placed either in Entertainment (40%) and Sports (38%) channels. Beer ads comprised 64% of the sample, with significant variation in airing times and channels between types of products and brands. LCA revealed five content classes that exploited the “Partying”, “Quality”, “Sports”, “Manly”, and “Relax” themes. The partying class, indicative of ad messages surrounding partying, love and sex, was the dominant theme, comprising 42% of all advertisements. Ads for alcopops, flavored spirits, and liqueur were more likely to belong to the party class, but there were also some beer brands (Corona, Heineken) where more than 67% of ads exploited this theme. Conclusions This is the first analysis to identify a partying theme to contemporary alcohol advertising. Future analyses can now determine whether exposure to that or other themes predicts alcohol misuse among youth audiences. PMID:26207317

  3. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

  4. Parent's alcoholism severity and family topic avoidance about alcohol as predictors of perceived stigma among adult children of alcoholics: Implications for emotional and psychological resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverfield, Marie C; Theiss, Jennifer A

    2016-01-01

    Alcoholism is a highly stigmatized condition, with both alcohol-dependent individuals and family members of the afflicted experiencing stigmatization. This study examined the severity of a parent's alcoholism and family topic avoidance about alcohol as two factors that are associated with family members' perceptions of stigma. Three dimensions of stigma were considered: discrimination stigma, disclosure stigma, and positive aspect stigma. In addition, this study assessed associations between perceived stigmatization and individuals' experiences of depressive symptoms, self-esteem, and resilience. Adult children of alcoholics (N = 622) were surveyed about family conditions, perceived stigma, and their emotional and psychological well-being. Regression analyses revealed that the severity of a parent's alcoholism predicted all three types of stigma for females, but not for males. In addition, family topic avoidance about alcohol predicted all types of stigma for males and discrimination stigma and positive aspect stigma for females. With few exceptions, the three types of stigma predicted depressive symptoms, self-esteem, and resilience for both male and female adult children of alcoholics. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for promoting a family environment that mitigates stigma and encourages emotional and psychological well-being. In 2012, approximately 3.3 million deaths worldwide were due to the harmful use of alcohol (World Health Organization [WHO], 2014). Individuals who abuse alcohol are susceptible to a variety of negative health outcomes (Rehm et al., 2009) and display inappropriate social behaviors (Klingemann, 2001; Schomerus et al., 2011a). General societal perceptions tend to characterize alcohol-dependent individuals as irresponsible and lacking in self-control (Schomerus et al., 2011b). Research in the United Kingdom found that 54% of the population believes alcohol-dependent individuals are personally to blame for their own

  5. Two Drugs, Different Messages: Media and Marijuana and Alcohol Regulation in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Coitiño

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Uruguay’s cannabis market became regulated while the alcohol market regulation was discussed. Cannabis regulation policy receives more strong opposition than support among Uruguayan public opinion (Boidi, Queirolo y Cruz, 2016a. In contrast, alcohol regulation receives majoritarian approval (Cifra, 2015. Why are these two regulations, both discussed at the same historical time, receiving such a different support from citizens? Is it possible that media coverage on alcohol regulation is positive, while cannabis regulation is mostly negative? This article analyzes Uruguayan main press media coverage on both regulations, and identifies which are the predominant frames and the differences among the treatment received by each regulation.

  6. The string prediction models as invariants of time series in the forex market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincak, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.

  7. Exploring the alcohol-behaviour link: Myopic self-enhancement in the absence of alcohol consumption as a function of past alcohol use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antony C. Moss

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Dual process accounts of the alcohol-behaviour link hypothesise that differences in drinking patterns will moderate the effects of exposure to alcohol-related cues on behaviour, such as when a placebo is administered. We test this hypothesis by adapting a paradigm used in alcohol myopia research to examine the effects of alcohol-related priming on self-enhancement behaviour amongst social drinkers. Participants were asked to engage in a computerised self-rating task prior to being exposed to alcohol related and/or motivational primes. A staged computer error then occurred, and participants were then asked to complete their self ratings again – this method allowed for an immediate assessment of the impact of alcohol and motivational primes on self enhancement. As predicted by alcohol myopia theory, the overall effect of priming with alcohol-related cues was not significant irrespective of response-conflict manipulations. However, drinker type moderated this effect such that heavier drinkers self-enhanced more after exposure to alcohol-related cues, but only in high-conflict conditions. This suggests that the efficacy of a placebo may be significantly moderated by individual differences in reactions to alcohol-related stimuli, and that dual process accounts of the effects of alcohol on behaviour better explains this variation than alcohol myopia theory.

  8. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Exploring Low Alcohol Beer Consumption Among College Students: Implications for Drunk Driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Nason W.; Geller, E. Scott

    1988-01-01

    When given a "blind" taste test prior to a party, college students (N=137) showed no clear preference for Budweiser beer, Bud Light, or low-alcohol beer, but later drank significantly less low-alcohol beer. It was concluded that without improved marketing intervention, low-alcohol beer will not impact on drunk driving among college…

  10. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol advertising on Australian metropolitan free-to-air television.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielder, Lynda; Donovan, Robert J; Ouschan, Robyn

    2009-07-01

    This study investigated the exposure of underage youth to alcohol television advertising on metropolitan free-to-air television in the five mainland capital city markets of Australia. Exposure levels (target audience rating points; TARPs) were obtained for all alcohol advertisements screened from November 2005 to October 2006 in each capital city market for: children 0-12 years; underage teens 13-17 years; young adults 18-24 years; and mature adults 25+ years. The 30 most exposed advertisements across age groups were then content-analysed for elements appealing to children and underage youth. In each of the five metropolitan markets, mature adults were most exposed to alcohol advertising. Children were exposed to one-third the level of mature adults and underage teens to approximately the same level as young adults. However, there was considerable variation in media weight between markets, such that underage teens in two markets had higher advertising TARPs than young adults in other markets. All 30 highest exposed advertisements contained at least one element known to appeal to children and underage youth, with 23 containing two or more such elements. Fifteen of the 30 advertisements featured an animal. The self-regulation system in Australia does not protect children and youth from exposure to alcohol advertising, much of which contains elements appealing to these groups.

  11. Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manthey, Jakob; Imtiaz, Sameer; Neufeld, Maria; Rylett, Margaret; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-05-25

    The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed. A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM. There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4-9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4-8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3-3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0-10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol

  12. Alcohol levels do not accurately predict physical or mental impairment in ethanol-tolerant subjects: relevance to emergency medicine and dram shop laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James R; Dollard, Denis

    2010-12-01

    The human body and the central nervous system can develop tremendous tolerance to ethanol. Mental and physical dysfunctions from ethanol, in an alcohol-tolerant individual, do not consistently correlate with ethanol levels traditionally used to define intoxication, or even lethality, in a nontolerant subject. Attempting to relate observed signs of alcohol intoxication or impairment, or to evaluate sobriety, by quantifying blood alcohol levels can be misleading, if not impossible. We report a case demonstrating the disconnect between alcohol levels and generally assigned parameters of intoxication and impairment. In this case, an alcohol-tolerant man, with a serum ethanol level of 515 mg/dl, appeared neurologically intact and cognitively normal. This individual was without objective signs of impairment or intoxication by repeated evaluations by experienced emergency physicians. In alcohol-tolerant individuals, blood alcohol levels cannot always be predicted by and do not necessarily correlate with outward appearance, overt signs of intoxication, or physical examination. This phenomenon must be acknowledged when analyzing medical decision making in the emergency department or when evaluating the ability of bartenders and party hosts to identify intoxication in dram shop cases.

  13. The string prediction models as an invariants of time series in forex market

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Pincak; Marian Repasan

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. Brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is ...

  14. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  15. Unpacking policy formulation and industry influence: the case of the draft control of marketing of alcoholic beverages bill in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertscher, Adam; London, Leslie; Orgill, Marsha

    2018-06-21

    Alcohol is a major contributor to the Non-Communicable Disease burden in South Africa. In 2000, 7.1% of all deaths and 7% of total disability-adjusted life years were ascribed to alcohol-related harm in the country. Regulations proposed to restrict alcohol advertising in South Africa present an evidence-based upstream intervention. Research on policy formulation in low- and middle-income countries is limited. This study aims to describe and explore the policy formulation process of the 2013 draft Control of Marketing of Alcoholic Beverages Bill in South Africa between March 2011 and May 2017. Recognising the centrality of affected actors in policy-making processes, the study focused on the alcohol industry as a central actor affected by the policy, to understand how they-together with other actors-may influence the policy formulation process. A qualitative case study approach was used, involving a stakeholder mapping, 10 in-depth interviews, and review of approximately 240 documents. A policy formulation conceptual framework was successfully applied as a lens to describe a complex policy formulation process. Key factors shaping policy formulation included: (1) competing and shared values-different stakeholders promote conflicting ideals for policymaking; (2) inter-department jostling-different government departments seek to protect their own functions, hindering policy development; (3) stakeholder consultation in democratic policymaking-policy formulation requires consultations even with those opposed to regulation and (4) battle for evidence-evidence is used strategically by all parties to shape perceptions and leverage positions. This research (1) contributes to building an integrated body of knowledge on policy formulation in low- and middle-income countries; (2) shows that achieving policy coherence across government departments poses a major challenge to achieving effective health policy formulation and (3) shows that networks of actors with commercial and

  16. Analysis of the structure of a product line of alcoholic beverages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agalarova, C.; Askadullina, A.; Tilburg, van A.

    2012-01-01

    AB This article deals with marketing decisions on the optimal product line of alcoholic beverages manufactured under the brand name «Praskoveyskoe». KEY WORDS Product line, turnover analysis, ABC-analysis, production of alcoholic beverages, policy to optimize a product line INTRODUCTION A product

  17. Over-expression of the miRNA cluster at chromosome 14q32 in the alcoholic brain correlates with suppression of predicted target mRNA required for oligodendrocyte proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzardo, A M; Gunewardena, S; Butler, M G

    2013-09-10

    We examined miRNA expression from RNA isolated from the frontal cortex (Broadman area 9) of 9 alcoholics (6 males, 3 females, mean age 48 years) and 9 matched controls using both the Affymetrix GeneChip miRNA 2.0 and Human Exon 1.0 ST Arrays to further characterize genetic influences in alcoholism and the effects of alcohol consumption on predicted target mRNA expression. A total of 12 human miRNAs were significantly up-regulated in alcohol dependent subjects (fold change≥1.5, false discovery rate (FDR)≤0.3; p<0.05) compared with controls including a cluster of 4 miRNAs (e.g., miR-377, miR-379) from the maternally expressed 14q32 chromosome region. The status of the up-regulated miRNAs was supported using the high-throughput method of exon microarrays showing decreased predicted mRNA gene target expression as anticipated from the same RNA aliquot. Predicted mRNA targets were involved in cellular adhesion (e.g., THBS2), tissue differentiation (e.g., CHN2), neuronal migration (e.g., NDE1), myelination (e.g., UGT8, CNP) and oligodendrocyte proliferation (e.g., ENPP2, SEMA4D1). Our data support an association of alcoholism with up-regulation of a cluster of miRNAs located in the genomic imprinted domain on chromosome 14q32 with their predicted gene targets involved with oligodendrocyte growth, differentiation and signaling. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Disclosure and Exposure of Alcohol on Social Media and Later Alcohol Use: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study

    OpenAIRE

    Erevik, Eilin K.; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Andreassen, Cecilie S.; Vedaa, Øystein; Pallesen, Ståle

    2017-01-01

    This article aims to investigate whether alcohol-related disclosure and exposure on social media can predict later alcohol use, and to identify covariates in these relationships. Data were collected by online surveys (two waves) among students in Bergen, Norway. The first survey was administered in fall 2015. The follow-up took place during fall 2016. A total of 5,217 students participated in both waves. The surveys included questions about demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-rela...

  19. Alcohol, Sex, and Screens: Modeling Media Influence on Adolescent Alcohol and Sex Co-Occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleakley, Amy; Ellithorpe, Morgan E; Hennessy, Michael; Khurana, Atika; Jamieson, Patrick; Weitz, Ilana

    2017-10-01

    Alcohol use and sexual behavior are important risk behaviors in adolescent development, and combining the two is common. The reasoned action approach (RAA) is used to predict adolescents' intention to combine alcohol use and sexual behavior based on exposure to alcohol and sex combinations in popular entertainment media. We conducted a content analysis of mainstream (n = 29) and Black-oriented movies (n = 34) from 2014 and 2013-2014, respectively, and 56 television shows (2014-2015 season). Content analysis ratings featuring character portrayals of both alcohol and sex within the same five-minute segment were used to create exposure measures that were linked to online survey data collected from 1,990 adolescents ages 14 to 17 years old (50.3% Black, 49.7% White; 48.1% female). Structural equation modeling (SEM) and group analysis by race were used to test whether attitudes, norms, and perceived behavioral control mediated the effects of media exposure on intention to combine alcohol and sex. Results suggest that for both White and Black adolescents, exposure to media portrayals of alcohol and sex combinations is positively associated with adolescents' attitudes and norms. These relationships were stronger among White adolescents. Intention was predicted by attitude, norms, and control, but only the attitude-intention relationship was different by race group (stronger for Whites).

  20. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies and programmes to reduce the harm caused by alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Peter; Chisholm, Dan; Fuhr, Daniela C

    2009-06-27

    This paper reviews the evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies and programmes to reduce the harm caused by alcohol, in the areas of education and information, the health sector, community action, driving while under the influence of alcohol (drink-driving), availability, marketing, pricing, harm reduction, and illegally and informally produced alcohol. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses show that policies regulating the environment in which alcohol is marketed (particularly its price and availability) are effective in reducing alcohol-related harm. Enforced legislative measures to reduce drink-driving and individually directed interventions to already at-risk drinkers are also effective. However, school-based education does not reduce alcohol-related harm, although public information and education-type programmes have a role in providing information and in increasing attention and acceptance of alcohol on political and public agendas. Making alcohol more expensive and less available, and banning alcohol advertising, are highly cost-effective strategies to reduce harm. In settings with high amounts of unrecorded production and consumption, increasing the proportion of alcohol that is taxed could be a more effective pricing policy than a simple increase in tax.

  1. Alcohol Policies and Alcohol-Involved Homicide Victimization in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naimi, Timothy S; Xuan, Ziming; Coleman, Sharon M; Lira, Marlene C; Hadland, Scott E; Cooper, Susanna E; Heeren, Timothy C; Swahn, Monica H

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between the alcohol policy environment and alcohol involvement in homicide victims in the United States, overall and by sociodemographic groups. To characterize the alcohol policy environment, the presence, efficacy, and degree of implementation of 29 alcohol policies were used to determine Alcohol Policy Scale (APS) scores by state and year. Data about homicide victims from 17 states from 2003 to 2012 were obtained from the National Violent Death Reporting System. APS scores were used as lagged exposure variables in generalized estimating equation logistic regression models to predict the individual-level odds of alcohol involvement (i.e., blood alcohol concentration [BAC] > 0.00% vs. = 0.00% and BAC ≥ 0.08% vs. ≤ 0.079%) among homicide victims. A 10 percentage point increase in APS score (representing a more restrictive policy environment) was associated with reduced odds of alcohol-involved homicide with BAC greater than 0.00% (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.89, 95% CI [0.82, 0.99]) and BAC of 0.08% or more (AOR = 0.91, 95% CI [0.82, 1.02]). In stratified analyses of homicide victims, more restrictive policy environments were significantly protective of alcohol involvement at both BAC levels among those who were female, ages 21-29 years, Hispanic, unmarried, victims of firearm homicides, and victims of homicides related to intimate partner violence. More restrictive alcohol policy environments were associated with reduced odds of alcohol-involved homicide victimization overall and among groups at high risk of homicide. Strengthening alcohol policies is a promising homicide prevention strategy.

  2. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  3. The relationship of sex-related alcohol expectancies to alcohol consumption and sexual behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, B C

    1990-07-01

    Recent psychosocial research on alcohol expectancies--beliefs about the effects of alcohol on behavior, moods and emotions--has suggested that these expectancies mediate not only decisions about drinking but the alcohol effects displayed by those who have been drinking. Results of a study of drinking and sexual behavior showed that individuals of different gender and sexual orientation differed in their beliefs about the effects of alcohol on sexual responding. In addition, expectations of sexual enhancement and disinhibition were related to the initiation of sexual activity and to the proportion of sexual encounters that took place while drinking, and interacted with sex guilt to predict the amount drunk in the most recent sexual encounter. These results suggest that beliefs about the effects of alcohol on sex may affect the characteristics of sexual encounters that involve drinking.

  4. Personality and Defense Styles: Clinical Specificities and Predictive Factors of Alcohol Use Disorder in Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribadier, Aurélien; Dorard, Géraldine; Varescon, Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated personality traits and defense styles in order to determine clinical specificities and predictive factors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in women. A female sample, composed of AUD outpatients (n = 48) and a control group (n = 50), completed a sociodemographic self-report and questionnaires assessing personality traits (BFI), defense mechanisms and defense styles (DSQ-40). Comparative and correlational analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regressions, were performed. AUD women presented with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion and conscientiousness. They used less mature and more neurotic and immature defense styles than the control group. Concerning personality traits, high neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were predictive of AUD, as well as low mature, high neurotic, and immature defense styles. Including personality traits and defense styles in a logistic model, high neuroticism was the only AUD predictive factor. AUD women presented clinical specificities and predictive factors in personality traits and defense styles that must be taken into account in AUD studies. Implications for specific treatment for women are discussed.

  5. Favourite alcohol advertisements and binge drinking among adolescents: a cross-cultural cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Sargent, James D; Sweeting, Helen; Faggiano, Fabrizio; Mathis, Federica; Hanewinkel, Reiner

    2014-12-01

    To investigate the association between having a favourite alcohol advertisement and binge drinking among European adolescents. Data were obtained from a longitudinal observational study on relationships between smoking and drinking and film tobacco and alcohol exposures. State-funded schools. Baseline survey of 12 464 German, Italian, Polish and Scottish adolescents (mean age 13.5 years), of whom 10 259 (82%) were followed-up 12 months later. Pupils were asked the brand of their favourite alcohol advertisement at baseline. Multi-level mixed-effects logistic regressions assessed relationships between having a favourite alcohol advertisement ('alcohol marketing receptivity') and (i) binge drinking at baseline; and (ii) initiating binge drinking during follow-up among a subsample of 7438 baseline never binge drinkers. Life-time binge drinking prevalence at baseline was 29.9% and 25.9% initiated binge drinking during follow-up. Almost one-third of the baseline sample (32.1%) and 22.6% of the follow-up sample of never-bingers named a branded favourite alcohol advertisement, with high between-country variation in brand named. After controlling for age, gender, family affluence, school performance, TV screen time, personality characteristics and drinking behaviour of peers, parents and siblings, alcohol marketing receptivity was related significantly to both binge drinking at baseline [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.92, 2.36] and binge drinking initiation in longitudinal analysis (AOR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.26, 1.66). There was no evidence for effect heterogeneity across countries. Among European adolescents naming a favourite alcohol advertisement was associated with increased likelihood of initiating binge drinking during 1-year follow-up, suggesting a relationship between alcohol marketing receptivity and adolescent binge drinking. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Living under the influence: normalisation of alcohol consumption in our cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xisca Sureda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Harmful use of alcohol is one of the world's leading health risks. A positive association between certain characteristics of the urban environment and individual alcohol consumption has been documented in previous research. When developing a tool characterising the urban environment of alcohol in the cities of Barcelona and Madrid we observed that alcohol is ever present in our cities. Urban residents are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption. In this field note, we reflect the normalisation of alcohol in urban environments. We highlight the need for further research to better understand attitudes and practices in relation to alcohol consumption. This type of urban studies is necessary to support policy interventions to prevent and control harmful alcohol use.

  7. Energy drinks and alcohol: links to alcohol behaviors and consequences across 56 days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Megan E; Maggs, Jennifer L

    2014-04-01

    To examine short-term consequences associated with consuming alcohol and energy drinks compared with consuming alcohol without energy drinks. A longitudinal measurement-burst design (14-day bursts of daily surveys in four consecutive college semesters) captured both within-person variation across occasions and between-person differences across individuals. The analytic sample of late adolescent alcohol users included 4,203 days with alcohol use across up to four semesters per person from 508 college students. Adding energy drink use to a given day with alcohol use was associated with an increase in number of alcoholic drinks, a trend toward more hours spent drinking, elevated estimated blood alcohol content (eBAC), a greater likelihood of subjective intoxication, and more negative consequences of drinking that day. After controlling for eBAC, energy drink use no longer predicted subjective intoxication but was still associated with a greater number of negative consequences. The consumption of energy drinks may lead to increases in alcohol consumption and, after controlling for eBAC, negative consequences. Use of energy drinks plus alcohol represents an emerging threat to public health. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Strategic Self-Presentation or Authentic Communication? Predicting Adolescents' Alcohol References on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geusens, Femke; Beullens, Kathleen

    2017-01-01

    The current study is one of the first to examine how self-reported alcohol consumption, friends' perceived alcohol consumption, and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with adolescents' sharing of alcohol references on SNS. A cross-sectional paper-and-pencil survey was administered among 3,172 adolescents (n = 3,133 used for analyses, mean age = 17.16 years, SD = 0.93; 50.7% male). Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. First, the results indicated that both self-reported drinking behavior and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references were related to sharing alcohol references on SNS, but the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor than self-reported drinking behavior. Friends' perceived drinking behavior was not a significant predictor. In the second place, self-reported drinking behavior was a stronger predictor for girls than for boys, whereas the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor for boys than for girls. Adolescents' alcohol-related self-representation is in line with their alcohol consumption and is also strongly related to what their friends are sharing. Thus, adolescents appear to communicate authentically about their drinking experiences, but the decision to do so is heavily influenced by the prevailing social norm regarding alcohol-related communication.

  9. Alcohol self-control behaviors of adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassman, Tavis; Werch, Chudley Chad; Jobli, Edessa

    2007-03-01

    The aims of the present study were to: (1) factor analyze a 13-item adolescent alcohol self-control behavior scale, (2) examine associations between frequency of self-control behavior use and alcohol consumption, and (3) to determine which self-control behaviors best predict alcohol use and consequences. A confidential standardized survey was used to collect data on participant's 30-day frequency, quantity, and heavy use of alcohol; alcohol-related consequences; and alcohol self-control behaviors. A principal component factor analysis produced the following three components: Healthy Alternatives (alpha=.81), Self-regulation (alpha=.72), and Assertive Communication (alpha=.73). MANOVAs indicated strong associations between frequency of use of the three types of self-control behaviors and alcohol consumption (p valuesadolescents, followed by Healthy Alternatives.

  10. Predicting an Alcohol Use Disorder in Urban American Indian Youths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale

    2014-01-01

    This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…

  11. Alcohol-seeking and relapse: A focus on incentive salience and contextual conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyear, Milan D; Villaruel, Franz R; Chaudhri, Nadia

    2017-08-01

    Environmental stimuli that reliably accompany alcohol intake can become associated with the pharmacological effects of alcohol through classical (Pavlovian) conditioning. Of growing interest to addiction researchers is whether or not this process results in the attribution of incentive salience to alcohol-predictive cues, which could motivate alcohol-seeking behavior and relapse. To evaluate this question, we present a review of rodent behavioral studies that examined the capacity of alcohol-predictive cues to (i) support sign-tracking behavior, (ii) serve as conditioned reinforcers, and (iii) produce Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. A second, emerging area of research is focused on delineating the role of context in alcohol-seeking behavior and relapse. Here, we review studies showing that alcohol-associated contexts (i) support conditioned place preference, (ii) renew extinguished alcohol-seeking behavior, and (iii) modulate alcohol-seeking responses elicited by discrete alcohol-predictive cues. These behavioral effects may be mediated by unique psychological processes, and have important implications for cue-reactivity studies and neurobiological research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Parental Divorce and Family History of Alcohol Disorder: Associations with Young Adults' Alcohol Problems, Marijuana Use, and Interpersonal Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windle, Michael; Windle, Rebecca C

    2018-06-01

    This study used prospective data from 706 young adults to evaluate the impact of parental divorce and family history of alcoholism (FH+) on the outcomes of offspring alcohol problems, marijuana use, and interpersonal relationships with parents. Assessments of parental divorce were based on parent reports, and young adult outcomes were collected from an offspring cohort (n = 706; X age = 33.25 years; females = 53%) via computer-based individual interviews (CAPI and ACASI). Family history of alcohol disorders for parents was based on assessments by mothers, fathers, and young adults. Parental divorce significantly predicted marijuana use but not alcohol problems. Maternal, but not paternal, alcoholism also significantly predicted marijuana use. Two-way interactions indicated that sex moderated several of the relationships. For example, among those with divorced parents, daughters reported higher levels of conflict with fathers than sons, and sons reported lower levels of maternal support than daughters. Paternal alcoholism was also associated with higher levels of alcohol problems among sons relative to daughters. There was also a significant 2-way interaction between divorce status and maternal alcoholism indicating that young adults who experienced both maternal alcoholism and parental divorce had the highest levels of marijuana use. These findings highlight the role that parental divorce and FH+ have on alcohol problems, marijuana use, and interpersonal relationships in young adulthood, and how sex may moderate some of these more nuanced relationships. Copyright © 2018 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  13. A Multidimensional Model of Mothers’ Perceptions of Parent Alcohol Socialization and Adolescent Alcohol Misuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennett, Susan T.; Jackson, Christine; Cole, Veronica T.; Haws, Susan; Foshee, Vangie A.; Reyes, Heathe Luz McNaughton; Burns, Alison Reimuller; Cox, Melissa J.; Cai, Li

    2015-01-01

    We assessed a multidimensional model of parent alcohol socialization in which key socialization factors were considered simultaneously to identify combinations of factors that increase or decrease risk for development of adolescent alcohol misuse. Of interest was the interplay between putative risk and protective factors, such as whether the typically detrimental effects on youth drinking of parenting practices tolerant of some adolescent alcohol use are mitigated by an effective overall approach to parenting and parental modeling of modest alcohol use. The sample included 1,530 adolescents and their mothers; adolescents’ mean age was 13.0 (SD = .99) at the initial assessment. Latent profile analysis was conducted of mothers’ reports of their attitude toward teen drinking, alcohol-specific parenting practices, parental alcohol use and problem use, and overall approach to parenting. The profiles were used to predict trajectories of adolescent alcohol misuse from early to middle adolescence. Four profiles were identified: two profiles reflected conservative alcohol-specific parenting practices and two reflected alcohol-tolerant practices, all in the context of other attributes. Alcohol misuse accelerated more rapidly from grade 6 through 10 in the two alcohol-tolerant compared with conservative profiles. Results suggest that maternal tolerance of some youth alcohol use, even in the presence of dimensions of an effective parenting style and low parental alcohol use and problem use, is not an effective strategy for reducing risky adolescent alcohol use. PMID:26415053

  14. Paradoxical effects of alcohol information on alcohol outcome expectancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krank, Marvin D; Ames, Susan L; Grenard, Jerry L; Schoenfeld, Tara; Stacy, Alan W

    2010-07-01

    Cognitive associations with alcohol predict both current and future use in youth and young adults. Much cognitive and social cognitive research suggests that exposure to information may have unconscious influences on thinking and behavior. The present study assessed the impact of information statements on the accessibility of alcohol outcome expectancies. The 2 studies reported here investigated the effects of exposure to alcohol statements typical of informational approaches to prevention on the accessibility of alcohol outcome expectancies. High school and university students were presented with information statements about the effects of alcohol and other commercial products. The alcohol statements were taken from expectancy questionnaires. Some of these statements were presented as facts and others as myths. The retention of detailed information about these statements was manipulated by (i) divided attention versus focused attention or (ii) immediate versus delayed testing. Accessibility of personal alcohol outcome expectancies was subsequently measured using an open-ended question about the expected effects of alcohol. Participants reported more alcohol outcomes seen during the information task as personal expectations about the effects of alcohol use than similar unseen items. Paradoxically, myth statements were also more likely to be reported as expectancies than unseen items in all conditions. Additionally, myth statements were generated less often than fact statements only under the condition of immediate testing with strong content processing instructions. These observations are consistent with findings from cognitive research where familiarity in the absence of explicit memory can have an unconscious influence on performance. In particular, the exposure to these items in an informational format increases accessibility of the seen items even when the participants were told that they were myths. The findings have implications for the development of

  15. Alcohol and economic development: Observations on the kingdom of Bhutan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kypri, Kypros; Dorji, Gampo; Dalton, Craig

    2017-05-01

    Bhutan is a small country undergoing rapid social change arising from income growth, urbanisation and Western cultural influence. Markers of poverty, namely infectious disease and infant mortality, have improved dramatically. The attention of health authorities is now focused on the non-communicable disease and injury burdens, to which alcohol consumption is a major contributor. The paper draws on official data to characterise the consumption of alcohol and related harm, and the nature of the alcohol market, with commentary on crucial aspects of availability policies and drink-driving regulation that need reform. Kypri K, Dorji G, Dalton C. Alcohol and economic development: Observations on the kingdom of Bhutan. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:333ȃ336.]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  16. Alcohol in urban streetscapes: a comparison of the use of Google Street View and on-street observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clews, Chris; Brajkovich-Payne, Roza; Dwight, Emily; Ahmad Fauzul, Ayob; Burton, Madeleine; Carleton, Olivia; Cook, Julie; Deroles, Charlotte; Faulkner, Ruby; Furniss, Mary; Herewini, Anahera; Huband, Daymen; Jones, Nerissa; Kim, Cho Wool; Li, Alice; Lu, Jacky; Stanley, James; Wilson, Nick; Thomson, George

    2016-05-26

    Alcohol-related harm is a major global health issue, and controls on alcohol marketing are one intervention utilized by governments. This study investigated the use of Google Street View (GSV) as a novel research method for collecting alcohol-related data in the urban environment. The efficacy of GSV and on-street observation by observer teams was compared by surveying 400 m stretches of 12 streets in Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand. Data on alcohol sale, alcohol-related advertising, health promotion materials, regulatory information and visible alcohol consumption were collected. A total of 403 retailers with evidence of alcohol sales and 1161 items of alcohol-related communication were identified in on-street observation. Of the latter, 1028 items (89 %) were for alcohol marketing and 133 (11 %) were for alcohol-related health promotion and alcohol regulation. GSV was found to be a less sensitive tool than on-street observation with only 50 % of the alcohol venues identified and 52 % of the venue-associated brand marketing identified. A high degree of inter-observer reliability was generally found between pairs of observers e.g., for the detection of alcohol retail venues the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.78 to 0.98) for on-street observation and 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.49 to 0.96) for using GSV. GSV does not seem suitable for the comprehensive study of the influences on alcohol consumption in the urban streetscape. However, it may still have value for large, static objects in the environment and be more time efficient than traditional on-street observation measures, especially when used to collect data across a wide geographical area. Furthermore, GSV might become a more useful research tool in settings with better image quality (such as more 'footpath views') and with more regularly updated GSV imagery.

  17. Implicit alcohol attitudes predict drinking behaviour over and above intentions and willingness in young adults but willingness is more important in adolescents: Implications for the Prototype Willingness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Emma L; Paltoglou, Aspasia E; Foxcroft, David R

    2017-05-01

    Dual process models, such as the Prototype Willingness Model (PWM), propose to account for both intentional and reactive drinking behaviour. Current methods of measuring constructs in the PWM rely on self-report, thus require a level of conscious deliberation. Implicit measures of attitudes may overcome this limitation and contribute to our understanding of how prototypes and willingness influence alcohol consumption in young people. This study aimed to explore whether implicit alcohol attitudes were related to PWM constructs and whether they would add to the prediction of risky drinking. The study involved a cross-sectional design. The sample included 501 participants from the United Kingdom (M age 18.92; range 11-51; 63% female); 230 school pupils and 271 university students. Participants completed explicit measures of alcohol prototype perceptions, willingness, drunkenness, harms, and intentions. They also completed an implicit measure of alcohol attitudes, using the Implicit Association Test. Implicit alcohol attitudes were only weakly related to the explicit measures. When looking at the whole sample, implicit alcohol attitudes did not add to the prediction of willingness over and above prototype perceptions. However, for university students implicit attitudes added to the prediction of behaviour, over and above intentions and willingness. For school pupils, willingness was a stronger predictor of behaviour than intentions or implicit attitudes. Adding implicit measures to the PWM may contribute to our understanding of the development of alcohol behaviours in young people. Further research could explore how implicit attitudes develop alongside the shift from reactive to planned behaviour. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Young people's drinking tends to occur in social situations and is driven in part by social reactions within these contexts. The Prototype Willingness Model (PWM) attempts to explain such reactive behaviour as

  18. The developmental effects of HIV and alcohol: a comparison of gestational outcomes among babies from South African communities with high prevalence of HIV and alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald, Kirsten A M; Fernandez, Anne; Claborn, Kasey; Kuo, Caroline; Koen, Nastassja; Zar, Heather; Stein, Dan J

    2017-05-08

    There is growing evidence of the negative impact of alcohol on morbidity and mortality of individuals living with HIV but limited evidence of in utero effects of HIV and alcohol on exposure on infants. We conducted a population-based birth cohort study (N = 667 mother-infant dyads) in South Africa to investigate whether maternal alcohol use and HIV affected gestational outcomes. Descriptive data analysis was conducted for all variables using frequency distributions, measures of central tendency, and estimates of variance. Hierarchical multiple regression was conducted to determine whether maternal alcohol use, maternal HIV status and other risk factors (socioeconomic status, smoking, depression) predicted infant outcomes. Our results showed severity of recent alcohol use and lifetime alcohol use predicted low birth weight. Similarly lifetime alcohol use predicted shorter infant length, smaller head length, smaller head circumference, and early gestational age. However, HIV status was not a significant predictor of gestational outcomes. The unexpected finding that maternal HIV status did not predict any of the gestational outcomes may be due to high rates of ART usage among HIV-infected mothers. The potentially negative effects of HIV on gestational outcomes may have been attenuated by improved maternal health due to high coverage of antiretroviral treatment in South Africa. Interventions are needed to reduce alcohol consumption among pregnant mothers and to support healthy growth and psychosocial development of infants.

  19. Predicting support for restricting food marketing to youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goren, Amir; Harris, Jennifer L; Schwartz, Marlene B; Brownell, Kelly D

    2010-01-01

    To address the obesity crisis, public health experts recommend major reductions in the marketing of unhealthy food to youth. However, policies to restrict food marketing are not currently viewed as politically feasible. This paper examines attitudes and knowledge about food marketing and support for restricting unhealthy food marketing [corrected] among one group of constituents: parents. A survey of 807 parents found that those most likely to support food marketing restrictions were also more likely to have negative views of current food practices. [corrected] These findings suggest that increased public education about the harm caused by food marketing may increase public support for policy interventions.

  20. Magazine alcohol advertising compliance with the Australian Alcoholic Beverages Advertising Code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Kati; Donovan, Rob; Howat, Peter; Weller, Narelle

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency and content of alcoholic beverage advertisements and sales promotions in magazines popular with adolescents and young people in Australia, and assess the extent to which the ads complied with Australia's self-regulatory Alcoholic Beverages Advertising Code (ABAC). Alcohol advertisements and promotions were identified in a sample of 93 magazines popular with young people. The identified items were coded against 28 measures constructed to assess the content of the items against the five sections of the ABAC. Two thirds of the magazines contained at least one alcohol advertisement or promotion with a total of 142 unique items identified: 80 were brand advertisements and 62 were other types of promotional items (i.e. sales promotions, event sponsorships, cross promotions with other marketers and advertorials). It was found that 52% of items appeared to contravene at least one section of the ABAC. The two major apparent breaches related to section B--the items having a strong appeal to adolescents (34%) and to section C--promoting positive social, sexual and psychological expectancies of consumption (28%). It was also found that promotional items appeared to breach the ABAC as often as did advertisements. It is concluded that the self-regulating system appears not to be working for the alcoholic beverages industry in Australia and that increased government surveillance and regulation should be considered, giving particular emphasis to the inclusion of promotional items other than brand advertising.

  1. Explaining Counterfeit Alcohol Purchases in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotelnikova, Zoya

    2017-04-01

    Alcohol is a common target of counterfeiting in Russia. Counterfeit alcohol is defined here as the manufacture, distribution, unauthorized placement (forgery) of protected commodity trademarks, and infringement of the exclusive rights of the registered trademark holders of alcoholic beverages. It is often argued that the expansion of the counterfeit product market is due to the steady demand of economically disadvantaged people for low-priced goods. The situation becomes more complicated once deceptive and nondeceptive forms of counterfeiting are taken into account. This study aimed to identify markers of risky behavior associated with the purchase of counterfeit alcohol in Russia. The analysis relied on consumer self-reports of alcohol use and purchase collected nationwide by the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) in 2012 to 2014. I used a generalized linear mixed-model logistic regression to identify predictors of risky behavior by consumers who purchased counterfeit alcohol, either knowingly or unknowingly, during the 30 days preceding the survey. Purchases of counterfeit alcohol declined slightly from 2012 to 2014, mainly due to a decrease in consumers mistakenly purchasing counterfeit products. Predictors of counterfeit alcohol purchases differed between consumers who knowingly and unknowingly purchased counterfeit products. Nondeceptive purchase of counterfeit alcohol was related primarily to an indifference to alcohol brands. Consumers with social networks that include drinkers of nonbeverage alcohol and producers of homemade alcohol were highly likely to consume counterfeit alcohol deliberately. Problem drinking was significantly associated with a higher risk of both deceptive and nondeceptive purchases of counterfeit alcohol. Poverty largely contributed to nondeceptive counterfeiting. The literature has overestimated the impact of low prices on counterfeit alcohol consumption. Problem drinking and membership in social networks of consumers

  2. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Timothy P; Denson, Thomas F

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  3. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy P Schofield

    Full Text Available Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  4. Prevention before profits: a levy on food and alcohol advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Todd A; Mooney, Gavin

    2010-04-05

    The recent interest in health promotion and disease prevention has drawn attention to the role of the alcohol and junk-food industries. Companies supplying, producing, advertising or selling alcohol or junk food (ie, foods with a high content of fat, sugar or salt) do so to generate profits. Even companies marketing "low-carbohydrate" beers, "mild" cigarettes, or "high-fibre" sugary cereals are not primarily concerned about population health, more so increased sales and profits. In a competitive market, it is assumed that consumers make fully informed choices about costs and benefits before purchasing. However, consumers are not being fully informed of the implications of their junk-food and alcohol choices, as advertising of these products carries little information on the health consequences of consumption. We propose that there should be a levy on advertising expenditure for junk food and alcoholic beverages to provide an incentive for industry to promote healthier products. Proceeds of the levy could be used to provide consumers with more complete and balanced information on the healthy and harmful impacts of food and alcohol choices. Our proposal addresses two of the greatest challenges facing Australia's preventable disease epidemic - the imbalance between the promotion of healthier and unhealthy products, and securing funds to empower consumer choice.

  5. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  6. The association of alcohol outlet density with illegal underage adolescent purchasing of alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John W; Livingston, Michael

    2015-02-01

    Although previous studies have suggested that greater community densities of alcohol sales outlets are associated with greater alcohol use and problems, the mechanisms are unclear. The present study examined whether density was associated with increased purchasing of alcohol by adolescents younger than the legal purchase age of 18 in Australia. The number of alcohol outlets per 10,000 population was identified within geographic regions in Victoria, Australia. A state-representative student survey (N = 10,143) identified adolescent reports of purchasing alcohol, and multilevel modeling was then used to predict the effects for different densities of outlet types (packaged, club, on-premise, general, and overall). Each extra sales outlet per 10,000 population was associated with a significant increase in the risk of underage adolescent purchasing. The strongest effect was for club density (odds ratio = 1.22) and packaged (takeaway) outlet density (odds ratio = 1.12). Males, older children, smokers, and those with substance-using friends were more likely to purchase alcohol. One mechanism by which alcohol sales outlet density may influence population rates of alcohol use and related problems is through increasing the illegal underage purchasing of alcohol. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Venous malformations: MR imaging features that predict skin burns after percutaneous alcohol embolization procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayad, Laura M.; Hazirolan, Tuncay; Carrino, John A.; Bluemke, David A.; Mitchell, Sally

    2008-01-01

    To examine the value of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for predicting the occurrence of skin burns in patients with venous malformations who undergo percutaneous alcohol embolization was the objective of the study. Pre-procedural MR imaging at 1.5 T from 40 patients with venous malformations who had undergone percutaneous alcohol embolization was retrospectively reviewed by two observers for these features: anatomic location, definition (well-defined or ill-defined), and the presence of skin, subcutaneous tissue, muscle, tendon, bone, joint, and deep venous system involvement. One observer recorded the length of skin involvement and volume of the malformation. Univariate and multivariate analysis tests were used to determine whether an association between the occurrence of skin burns and MR imaging features existed. The anatomic locations of the venous malformations were the lower extremity (20 out of 40), upper extremity (11 out of 40), trunk (four out of 40), head/neck (three out of 40) and pelvis (two out of 40). Of the 40 subjects, 15% (six out of 40) experienced skin burns. There was a significant association between the absence of muscle involvement (p=0.0198) as well as the length of skin involvement (p=0.027), with the occurrence of skin burns. Malformation size and all other features were not significantly associated with skin burns. Skin burns in patients with venous malformations treated with alcohol embolization are associated with the length of skin involvement and with the absence of deeper tissue involvement, as depicted on MR imaging. (orig.)

  8. Alcohol Marketing, Communications and Sponsorship Codes of Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Department of Health (Ireland)

    2008-01-01

    In 2002 the Minister for Health and Children met with representative organisations from the Advertising Industry, the Association of Advertisers in Ireland (AAI), representing advertisers, the Institute of Advertising Practitioners in Ireland (IAPI), representing the advertising agencies and Drinks Industry Group Ireland (DIGI) representing the Alcohol Drinks Industry. The discussions centred on the Ministerâ?Ts concerns about some of the content, weight of exposure and placement of alcoh...

  9. Market Entry and Distribution Strategy for Interbev UK Ltd in Malaysia & Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Sheikh, Omar

    2013-01-01

    For UK export companies distributing branded alcoholic beverages globally, the opportunities posed by new growth markets such as those in South East Asia are particularly attractive. With emerging economies supporting growth and rising living standards, consumer buying habits have changed from the simple need for sustenance to sophistication. This has led to an overall increase in demand for luxury goods, especially those in the alcoholic beverage market. Two South East Asian countries in par...

  10. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  11. A multidimensional model of mothers' perceptions of parent alcohol socialization and adolescent alcohol misuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennett, Susan T; Jackson, Christine; Cole, Veronica T; Haws, Susan; Foshee, Vangie A; Reyes, Heathe Luz McNaughton; Burns, Alison Reimuller; Cox, Melissa J; Cai, Li

    2016-02-01

    We assessed a multidimensional model of parent alcohol socialization in which key socialization factors were considered simultaneously to identify combinations of factors that increase or decrease risk for development of adolescent alcohol misuse. Of interest was the interplay between putative risk and protective factors, such as whether the typically detrimental effects on youth drinking of parenting practices tolerant of some adolescent alcohol use are mitigated by an effective overall approach to parenting and parental modeling of modest alcohol use. The sample included 1,530 adolescents and their mothers; adolescents' mean age was 13.0 (SD = .99) at the initial assessment. Latent profile analysis was conducted of mothers' reports of their attitude toward teen drinking, alcohol-specific parenting practices, parental alcohol use and problem use, and overall approach to parenting. The profiles were used to predict trajectories of adolescent alcohol misuse from early to middle adolescence. Four profiles were identified: 2 profiles reflected conservative alcohol-specific parenting practices and 2 reflected alcohol-tolerant practices, all in the context of other attributes. Alcohol misuse accelerated more rapidly from Grade 6 through 10 in the 2 alcohol-tolerant compared with conservative profiles. Results suggest that maternal tolerance of some youth alcohol use, even in the presence of dimensions of an effective parenting style and low parental alcohol use and problem use, is not an effective strategy for reducing risky adolescent alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Implicit and explicit cognitions related to alcohol use in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, S.; Vorst, H.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Wiers, R.W.

    2010-01-01

    Research has indicated that implicit and explicit alcohol-related cognitions jointly predict alcohol use in adolescents and adults. Only few studies assessed these cognitions in children. Associations between alcohol cognitions and alcohol use were tested in two studies with 10 year olds (Study 1; N

  13. Implicit and explicit: cognitions related to alcohol use in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, S.; Vorst, H. van der; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Wiers, R.W.H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Research has indicated that implicit and explicit alcohol-related cognitions jointly predict alcohol use in adolescents and adults. Only few studies assessed these cognitions in children. Associations between alcohol cognitions and alcohol use were tested in two studies with 10 year olds (Study 1: N

  14. Regional alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Mark; Shipton, Deborah; Walsh, David; Whyte, Bruce; McCartney, Gerry

    2015-01-07

    Regional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality. Alcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010-11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed. Per adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively. This study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol

  15. Evaluating employee assistance policy in an HMO-based alcoholism project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, S L; Stout, R L

    1985-01-01

    One aspect of successful employee assistance program (EAP) implementation is the adoption of a formal, written policy, reflecting company commitment to EAP guidelines and goals. This study of criteria predictive of such policy adoption was conducted at the occupational alcoholism project of a New England health maintenance organization (HMO). Data on nearly 400 organizations contacted by occupational program consultants (OPCs) over a 20-month period were collected by questionnaire and interview. One third of these organizations adopted employee assistance policies and set about establishing formal programs. Stepwise multiple regression is the principal method used to pinpoint the correlates of policy adoption. Two of the most important of these are the attitudes of contact persons within the organization toward alcoholism and employee assistance programs, particularly their admission of alcohol problems within their social networks; and the consultants' persistence and marketing skills. The adopting organizations also had reputations for being progressive, and actively concerned about employee welfare; they tended to be large, their executives autonomous, and their union membership rates high. Inhibiting policy acceptance were fears that a written policy would jeopardize the reputation and image of the organization, and that an employee assistance program would remove internal control of personal procedures. The adequacy of the evaluative data and methods are discussed, and recommendations are offered in the interests of streamlining the efforts of OPCs and of achieving greater penetration of targeted organizations.

  16. The illusion of righteousness: corporate social responsibility practices of the alcohol industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Sungwon; Lam, Tai-Hing

    2013-07-03

    Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an integral element of how the alcohol industry promotes itself. The existing analyses of CSR in the alcohol industry point to the misleading nature of these CSR practices. Yet, research has been relatively sparse on how the alcohol industry advances CSR in an attempt to facilitate underlying business interests, and in what ways the ongoing display of industry CSR impacts public health. This paper aims to investigate the alcohol industry's recent CSR engagements and explain how CSR forms part of the industry's wider political and corporate strategies. Our study used qualitative methods to collect and analyse data. We searched for materials pertaining to CSR activities from websites of three transnational alcohol corporations, social media platforms, media reports and other sources. Relevant documents were thematically analysed with an iterative approach. Our analysis identified three CSR tactics employed by the alcohol companies which are closely tied in with the industry's underlying corporate intents. First, the alcohol manufacturers employ CSR as a means to frame issues, define problems and guide policy debates. In doing this, the alcohol companies are able to deflect and shift the blame from those who manufacture and promote alcoholic products to those who consume them. Second, the alcohol corporations promote CSR initiatives on voluntary regulation in order to delay and offset alcohol control legislation. Third, the alcohol corporations undertake philanthropic sponsorships as a means of indirect brand marketing as well as gaining preferential access to emerging alcohol markets. The increasing penetration and involvement of the alcohol industry into CSR highlights the urgent needs for public health counter actions. Implementation of any alcohol control measures should include banning or restricting the publicity efforts of the industry's CSR and informing the public of the alcohol industry's notion of social

  17. Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Daniela NEMES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

  18. Impulsive and reflective processes related to alcohol use in young adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara ePieters

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Dual process models suggest that the development of addictive behaviors is the result of interplay between impulsive and reflective processes, modulated by boundary conditions such as individual or situational factors. Empirical support for this model has been repeatedly demonstrated in adult samples (for a meta-analysis see Rooke, Hine, & Thorsteinsson, 2008. The purpose of this study was to test these processes as they relate to emerging alcohol use in adolescents. Specifically, the interactive effects of several measures of impulsive and reflective processes and working memory capacity are examined as predictors of changes in alcohol use among adolescents. It was expected that measures of reflective processes would better predict changes in alcohol use than measures of impulsive processes. Moreover, it was anticipated that working memory capacity would moderate the relation between alcohol-specific impulsive and reflective processes and changes in adolescent alcohol use. Methods: The sample consisted of 427 adolescents (47.7% male between 12 and 16 years of age (M = 13.96, SD = .78 who reported drinking alcohol at least once. Four measures of impulsive processes were included. Attentional bias for alcohol was assessed with a Visual Probe Test; approach bias toward alcohol was assessed with a Stimulus Response Compatibility Test (SRC; and memory associations with alcohol were assessed with an Implicit Association Test (IAT and a Word Association Test (WAT. Two measures of reflective measures were included: positive and negative expectancies. Working memory capacity was measured using a Self-Ordered Pointing Task (SOPT.Results: Results showed that positive expectancies predicted changes in alcohol use, but this effect was qualified by an interaction with IAT scores. Moreover, SRC scores predicted changes in alcohol use only when negative expectancies were low. Attentional bias and word association scores did not predict changes in

  19. Underage college students' alcohol displays on Facebook and real-time alcohol behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Megan A; Cox, Elizabeth D; Young, Henry N; Haaland, Wren

    2015-06-01

    College is often a time of alcohol use initiation and displayed Facebook alcohol references. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to determine associations between initial references to alcohol on social media and college students' self-reported recent drinking, binge drinking, and excessive drinking. First-year students from two U.S. public universities were randomly selected from registrar lists for recruitment. Data collection included 2 years of monthly Facebook evaluation. When an initial displayed Facebook alcohol reference was identified, these "New Alcohol Displayers" were contacted for phone interviews. Phone interviews used the validated timeline followback method to evaluate recent alcohol use, binge episodes, and excessive drinking. Analyses included calculation of positive predictive value and Poisson regression. A total of 338 participants were enrolled; 56.1% participants were female, 74.8% were Caucasian, and 58.8% were from the Midwestern University. A total of 167 (49.4%) participants became new alcohol displayers during the first 2 years of college. Among new alcohol displayers, 78.5% reported past 28-day alcohol use. Among new alcohol displayers who reported recent alcohol use, 84.9% reported at least one binge episode. Posting an initial Facebook alcohol reference as a profile picture or cover photo was positively associated with excessive drinking (risk ratio = 2.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.54-3.58). Findings suggest positive associations between references to alcohol on social media and self-reported recent alcohol use. Location of initial reference as a profile picture or cover photo was associated with problematic drinking and may suggest that a student would benefit from clinical investigation or resources. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Eat, drink and gamble: marketing messages about 'risky' products in an Australian major sporting series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sophie; Thomas, Samantha; Lewis, Sophie; Westberg, Kate; Moodie, Rob; Jones, Sandra

    2013-08-05

    To investigate the alcohol, gambling, and unhealthy food marketing strategies during a nationally televised, free to air, sporting series in Australia. Using the Australian National Rugby League 2012 State of Origin three-game series, we conducted a mixed methods content analysis of the frequency, duration, placement and content of advertising strategies, comparing these strategies both within and across the three games. There were a total of 4445 episodes (mean = 1481.67, SD = 336.58), and 233.23 minutes (mean = 77.74, SD = 7.31) of marketing for alcoholic beverages, gambling products and unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages during the 360 minutes of televised coverage of the three State of Origin 2012 games. This included an average per game of 1354 episodes (SD = 368.79) and 66.29 minutes (SD = 7.62) of alcohol marketing; 110.67 episodes (SD = 43.89), and 8.72 minutes (SD = 1.29) of gambling marketing; and 17 episodes (SD = 7.55), and 2.74 minutes (SD = 0.78) of unhealthy food and beverage marketing. Content analysis revealed that there was a considerable embedding of product marketing within the match play, including within match commentary, sporting equipment, and special replays. Sport is increasingly used as a vehicle for the promotion of range of 'risky consumption' products. This study raises important ethical and health policy questions about the extent and impact of saturation and incidental marketing strategies on health and wellbeing, the transparency of embedded marketing strategies, and how these strategies may influence product consumption.

  1. Living under the influence: normalisation of alcohol consumption in our cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sureda, Xisca; Villalbí, Joan R; Espelt, Albert; Franco, Manuel

    Harmful use of alcohol is one of the world's leading health risks. A positive association between certain characteristics of the urban environment and individual alcohol consumption has been documented in previous research. When developing a tool characterising the urban environment of alcohol in the cities of Barcelona and Madrid we observed that alcohol is ever present in our cities. Urban residents are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption. In this field note, we reflect the normalisation of alcohol in urban environments. We highlight the need for further research to better understand attitudes and practices in relation to alcohol consumption. This type of urban studies is necessary to support policy interventions to prevent and control harmful alcohol use. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

    2014-07-01

    No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

  3. Changes in the influence of alcohol-paired stimuli on alcohol seeking across extended training.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura H. Corbit

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous work has demonstrated that goal-directed control of alcohol seeking and other drug-related behaviors is reduced following extended self-administration and drug exposure. Here we examined how the magnitude of stimulus influences on responding changes across similar training and drug exposure. Rats self-administered alcohol or sucrose for two or eight weeks. Previous work has shown that eight, but not two weeks of self-administration produces habitual alcohol seeking. Next, all animals received equivalent Pavlovian conditioning sessions where a discrete stimulus predicted the delivery of alcohol or sucrose. Finally, the impact of the stimuli on ongoing instrumental responding was examined in a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT test. While a significant PIT effect was observed following two weeks of either alcohol or sucrose self-administration, the magnitude of this effect was greater following eight weeks of training. The specificity of the PIT effect appeared unchanged by extended training. While it is well established that evaluation of the outcome of responding contributes less to behavioral control following extended training and/or drug exposure, our data indicate that reward-predictive stimuli have a stronger contribution to responding after extended training. Together, these findings provide insight into the factors that control behavior after extended drug use which will be important for developing effective methods for controlling and ideally reducing these behaviors.

  4. Changes in the Influence of Alcohol-Paired Stimuli on Alcohol Seeking across Extended Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbit, Laura H.; Janak, Patricia H.

    2016-01-01

    Previous work has demonstrated that goal-directed control of alcohol-seeking and other drug-related behaviors is reduced following extended self-administration and drug exposure. Here, we examined how the magnitude of stimulus influences on responding changes across similar training and drug exposure. Rats self-administered alcohol or sucrose for 2 or 8 weeks. Previous work has shown that 8 weeks, but not 2 weeks of self-administration produces habitual alcohol seeking. Next, all animals received equivalent Pavlovian conditioning sessions where a discrete stimulus predicted the delivery of alcohol or sucrose. Finally, the impact of the stimuli on ongoing instrumental responding was examined in a Pavlovian–instrumental transfer (PIT) test. While a significant PIT effect was observed following 2 weeks of either alcohol or sucrose self-administration, the magnitude of this effect was greater following 8 weeks of training. The specificity of the PIT effect appeared unchanged by extended training. While it is well established that evaluation of the outcome of responding contributes less to behavioral control following extended training and/or drug exposure, our data indicate that reward–predictive stimuli have a stronger contribution to responding after extended training. Together, these findings provide insight into the factors that control behavior after extended drug use, which will be important for developing effective methods for controlling and ideally reducing these behaviors. PMID:27777560

  5. Perceived racism and alcohol consequences among African American and Caucasian college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grekin, Emily R

    2012-12-01

    Few studies have assessed relationships between perceived racism, racism-related stress, and alcohol problems. The current study examined these relationships within the context of tension reduction models of alcohol consumption. Participants were 94 African American and 189 Caucasian college freshmen who completed an online survey assessing perceived racism, alcohol consequences, alcohol consumption, negative affect, and deviant behavior. Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that racism-related stress predicted alcohol consequences for both African American and Caucasian college students, even after controlling for alcohol consumption, negative affect, and behavioral deviance. The frequency of racist events predicted alcohol consequences for Caucasian but not African American students. These findings highlight the need to address racism and racism-related stress in college-based alcohol prevention and intervention efforts. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  6. Weakening of one more alcohol control pillar: a review of the effects of the alcohol tax cuts in Finland in 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkelä, Pia; Osterberg, Esa

    2009-04-01

    To review the consequences of the changes in Finnish alcohol policy in 2004, when quotas for travellers' tax-free imports of alcoholic beverages from other European Union (EU) countries were abolished, Estonia joined the EU and excise duties on alcoholic beverages were reduced in Finland by one-third, on average. A review of published research and routinely available data. Finland. Prices of alcoholic beverages, recorded and unrecorded alcohol consumption, data on criminality and other police statistics, alcohol-related deaths and hospitalizations, service use. Alcohol consumption increased 10% in 2004, clearly more than in the early 2000s. With few exceptions, alcohol-related harms increased. Alcohol-induced liver disease deaths increased the most, by 46% in 2004-06 compared to 2001-03, which indicates a strong effect on pre-2004 heavy drinkers. Consumption and harms increased most among middle-aged and older segments of the population, and harms in the worst-off parts of the population in particular. Alcohol taxation and alcohol prices affect consumption and related harms, and heavy drinkers are responsive to price. In Finland in 2004, the worst-off parts of the population paid the highest price in terms of health for cuts in alcohol prices. The removal of travellers' import quotas, which was an inherent part of creating the single European market, had serious public health consequences in Finland.

  7. Point-of-sale alcohol promotions in the Perth and Sydney metropolitan areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Barrie, Lance; Robinson, Laura; Allsop, Steve; Chikritzhs, Tanya

    2012-09-01

    Point-of-sale (POS) is increasingly being used as a marketing tool for alcohol products, and there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that these materials are positively associated with drinking and contribute to creating a pro-alcohol environment. The purpose of the present study was to document the nature and extent of POS alcohol promotions in bottle shops in two Australian capital cities. A purposive sample of 24 hotel bottle shops and liquor stores was selected across Sydney (New South Wales) and Perth (Western Australia) and audited for the presence and nature of POS marketing. Point-of-sale promotions were found to be ubiquitous, with an average of 33 promotions per outlet. Just over half were classified as 'non-price' promotions (e.g. giveaways and competitions). Spirits were the most commonly promoted type of alcohol. The average number of standard drinks required to participate in the promotions ranged from 12 for ready to drinks to 22 for beer. Alcohol outlets that were part of supermarket chains had a higher number of promotions, more price-based promotions, and required a greater quantity of alcohol to be purchased to participate in the promotion. The data collected in this study provides a starting point for our understanding of POS promotions in Australia, and poses important questions for future research in this area. © 2012 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  8. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit G

    2014-06-01

    response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested.Keywords: alcoholism, relapse, response inhibition, go/no-go task, ERPs, P3d 

  9. Ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise and initiation of teen drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Dal Cin, Sonya; Gibson, Jennifer; Sargent, James D

    2006-04-01

    The alcohol industry spends over $5 billion a year on marketing, much of which is accessible to children. The distribution of branded articles of clothing and other personal items is one aspect of alcohol marketing that has not been adequately studied. In this study, the prevalence of ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise (ABM) was determined in a sample of rural northern New England adolescents, and the relationship between ownership of such items and initiation of alcohol use was examined. Northern New England middle school students who had not yet initiated alcohol use were captured at baseline in a 1999 school-based survey, and ownership of an ABM item and initiation of alcohol use were determined 1 to 2 years later by telephone. The analysis controlled for demographics (gender, grade in school); characteristics of the child (school performance, sensation seeking, rebelliousness); parenting style; and peer alcohol use. Of 2406 baseline never-drinkers, 15% had initiated alcohol use and 14% owned an ABM item by follow-up. ABM items consisted primarily of articles of clothing such as t-shirts and hats. ABM ownership was associated with higher grade in school, male gender, exposure to peer drinking, having tried smoking, poorer academic performance, higher levels of sensation seeking and rebelliousness, and less-responsive and restrictive parenting styles. Owners of ABM items at follow-up had higher rates of alcohol initiation compared with non-owners (25.5% vs 13.1%, respectively, p<0.001). After adjusting for the above confounders, students who owned an ABM item were significantly more likely to have initiated alcohol use compared with students who did not own one (adjusted odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.0). In this northern New England adolescent sample, ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise was prevalent and exhibited an independent cross-sectional association with onset of adolescent drinking. Further studies are necessary to determine

  10. Vested interests in addiction research and policy. Alcohol brand sponsorship of events, organizations and causes in the United States, 2010-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belt, Olivia; Stamatakos, Korene; Ayers, Amanda J; Fryer, Victoria A; Jernigan, David H; Siegel, Michael

    2014-12-01

    There has been insufficient research attention to the alcohol industry's use of corporate sponsorship as a marketing tool. This paper provides a systematic investigation of the nature and extent of alcohol sponsorship-at the brand level-in the United States. The study examined sponsorship of organizations and events in the United States by alcohol brands from 2010 to 2013. The top 75 brands of alcohol consumed by underage drinkers were identified based on a previously conducted national internet-based survey. For each of these brands, a systematic search for sponsorships was conducted using Google. The sponsorships were coded by category and type of sponsorship. We identified 945 sponsorships during the study period for the top 75 brands consumed by underage drinkers. The most popular youth brands were far more likely to engage in sponsorship and to have a higher number of sponsorships. The identified sponsorships overwhelmingly associated alcohol brands with integral aspects of American culture, including sports, music, the arts and entertainment, and drinking itself. The most popular brands among underage drinkers were much more likely to associate their brands with these aspects of American culture than brands that were less popular among underage drinkers. Alcohol brand sponsorship must be viewed as a major alcohol marketing strategy that generates brand capital through positive associations with integral aspects of culture, creation of attractive brand personalities, and identification with specific market segments. Alcohol research, practice and policy should address this highly prevalent form of alcohol marketing. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  11. A rapid situation assessment of the market for surrogate and illegal alcohols in Tallinn, Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pärna, Kersti; Lang, Katrin; Raju, Kadi; Väli, Marika; McKee, Martin

    2007-01-01

    To understand the phenomenon of consumption of surrogate and illegal alcohols in Tallinn, capital of Estonia. This study, conducted in Tallinn in May 2006, used rapid situation assessment. Interviews with key informants in relevant settings such as emergency departments of hospitals, accommodation for the homeless, police etc. (n = 22), with alcohol abusers (n = 33), natural observations of surrogate sale and consumption venues (n = 46), and tracking of trade data were carried out. Key informants confirmed that consumption of illegal and surrogate alcohols are widely used by alcohol abusers, a finding confirmed by the alcohol abusers. Availability of surrogates varied by area of the city, mainly sold from street kiosks. Illegally produced spirits were also easily available. Sales of surrogates appear to have increased in recent years. A range of alcohol-containing substances that appear to be easily available at low cost, and that have high concentration of ethanol or contaminants known to be toxic, were identified in Tallinn. Alcohol policies in Estonia should address the consumption and availability of these substances.

  12. Alcohol-specific parenting, adolescents' self-control, and alcohol use: a moderated mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koning, Ina M; van den Eijnden, Regina J J M; Vollebergh, Wilma A M

    2014-01-01

    There is convincing evidence that parental rules about alcohol are important in curbing adolescents' alcohol use. However, little is known about the mechanisms through which the direct link between alcohol-specific parenting and alcohol use is obtained. In this study, we investigated the mediating effect of adolescent self-control on the relationship between alcohol-specific rules and adolescents' drinking behavior and whether this mediation effect depends on the level of quality of communication. A total of 883 adolescents participated in this longitudinal study at ages 13, 14, and 15 years. Strict rules predicted lower rates of drinking, but no direct effect of the quality of communication on adolescents' alcohol use was found. A higher level of self-control was related to lower rates of drinking in adolescents. The indirect effect of rules about alcohol through adolescents' self-control was statistically significant, yet only in adolescents with high qualitative parent-child communication about alcohol. In adolescents with low quality of parent-child communication, self-control was not related to drinking. These findings imply that strict rule setting in combination with qualitative parent-child communication is an important target for prevention. In addition, findings point at the importance of high qualitative parent-child communication for adolescents' motivation to engage in self-control to avoid drinking.

  13. Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach [Conference presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Gupta, R

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Gupta1_2008.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 13351 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Gupta1_2008.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Background and Motivation... (Economics), University of Pretoria 2Senior Researcher (Statistics), CSIR, Pretoria. SASA 2008 Gupta and Das Predicting downturns in US housing market Background and Motivation Models - VARs, BVARs and SBVARs Forecasting House Prices in the Twenty...

  14. Predictors of detection of alcohol use episodes using a transdermal alcohol sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Nancy P; Meade, E B; Glynn, Tiffany R

    2014-02-01

    The objective of this investigation was to establish the ability of the Secure Continuous Remote Alcohol Monitoring (SCRAM) alcohol sensor to detect different levels of self-reported alcohol consumption, and to determine whether gender and body mass index, alcohol dependence, bracelet version, and age of bracelet influenced detection of alcohol use. Heavy drinking adults (N = 66, 46% female) wore the SCRAM for 1-28 days and reported their alcohol use in daily Web-based surveys. Participant reports of alcohol use were matched with drinking episodes identified from bracelet readings. On days when bracelets were functional, 690 drinking episodes were reported and 502 of those episodes (72.8%) were detected using sensor data. Using generalized estimating equations, we found no gender differences in detection of reported drinking episodes (77% for women, 69% for men). In univariate analyses, at the level of fewer than 5 drinks, women's episodes were more likely to be detected, likely because of the significantly higher transdermal alcohol concentration levels of these episodes, whereas at the level of 5 or more drinks, there was no gender difference in detection (92.6% for women, 93.4% for men). In multivariable analyses, no variables other than number of drinks significantly predicted alcohol detection. In summary, the SCRAM sensor is very good at detecting 5 or more drinks; performance of the monitor below this level was better among women because of their higher transdermal alcohol concentration levels. Individual person characteristics and bracelet features were not related to detection after number of drinks was included. Minimal bracelet malfunctions were noted.

  15. Targeted marketing and public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grier, Sonya A; Kumanyika, Shiriki

    2010-01-01

    Targeted marketing techniques, which identify consumers who share common needs or characteristics and position products or services to appeal to and reach these consumers, are now the core of all marketing and facilitate its effectiveness. However, targeted marketing, particularly of products with proven or potential adverse effects (e.g., tobacco, alcohol, entertainment violence, or unhealthful foods) to consumer segments defined as vulnerable raises complex concerns for public health. It is critical that practitioners, academics, and policy makers in marketing, public health, and other fields recognize and understand targeted marketing as a specific contextual influence on the health of children and adolescents and, for different reasons, ethnic minority populations and other populations who may benefit from public health protections. For beneficial products, such understanding can foster more socially productive targeting. For potentially harmful products, understanding the nature and scope of targeted marketing influences will support identification and implementation of corrective policies.

  16. Rationalization of the pKa values of alcohols and thiols using atomic charge descriptors and its application to the prediction of amino acid pKa's.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugur, Ilke; Marion, Antoine; Parant, Stéphane; Jensen, Jan H; Monard, Gerald

    2014-08-25

    In a first step toward the development of an efficient and accurate protocol to estimate amino acids' pKa's in proteins, we present in this work how to reproduce the pKa's of alcohol and thiol based residues (namely tyrosine, serine, and cysteine) in aqueous solution from the knowledge of the experimental pKa's of phenols, alcohols, and thiols. Our protocol is based on the linear relationship between computed atomic charges of the anionic form of the molecules (being either phenolates, alkoxides, or thiolates) and their respective experimental pKa values. It is tested with different environment approaches (gas phase or continuum solvent-based approaches), with five distinct atomic charge models (Mulliken, Löwdin, NPA, Merz-Kollman, and CHelpG), and with nine different DFT functionals combined with 16 different basis sets. Moreover, the capability of semiempirical methods (AM1, RM1, PM3, and PM6) to also predict pKa's of thiols, phenols, and alcohols is analyzed. From our benchmarks, the best combination to reproduce experimental pKa's is to compute NPA atomic charge using the CPCM model at the B3LYP/3-21G and M062X/6-311G levels for alcohols (R(2) = 0.995) and thiols (R(2) = 0.986), respectively. The applicability of the suggested protocol is tested with tyrosine and cysteine amino acids, and precise pKa predictions are obtained. The stability of the amino acid pKa's with respect to geometrical changes is also tested by MM-MD and DFT-MD calculations. Considering its strong accuracy and its high computational efficiency, these pKa prediction calculations using atomic charges indicate a promising method for predicting amino acids' pKa in a protein environment.

  17. Media as a “Super Peer”: How Adolescents Interpret Media Messages Predicts their Perception of Alcohol and Tobacco Use Norms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmore, Kristen; Scull, Tracy M.; Kupersmidt, Janis B.

    2016-01-01

    Adolescents’ media environment offers information about who uses substances and what happens as a result—how youth interpret these messages likely determines their impact on normative beliefs about alcohol and tobacco use. The Message Interpretation Processing (MIP) theory predicts that substance use norms are influenced by cognitions associated with the interpretation of media messages. This cross-sectional study examined whether high school adolescents’ (n=817, 48% female, 64% white) media-related cognitions (i.e., similarity, realism, desirability, identification) were related to their perceptions of substance use norms. Results revealed that adolescents’ media-related cognitions explained a significant amount of variance in perceived social approval for and estimated prevalence of peer alcohol and tobacco use, above and beyond previous use and demographic covariates. Compared to prevalence norms, social approval norms were more closely related to adolescents’ media-related cognitions. Results suggest that critical thinking about media messages can inhibit normative perceptions that are likely to increase adolescents’ interest in alcohol and tobacco use. PMID:27837371

  18. What is the Predictive Power of Market Orientation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Langerak (Fred)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThe majority of studies on market orientation claim that compelling evidence exists that market orientation has a positive effect on business performance. This study takes a closer look at forty studies that have addressed the relationship between market orientation and business

  19. Heavy drinking, impulsivity and attentional narrowing following alcohol cue exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Joshua A; Fields, Sherecce; Davis, William E; Gable, Philip A

    2015-08-01

    Research shows that alcohol-related stimuli have the propensity to capture attention among individuals motivated to consume alcohol. Research has further demonstrated that impulsive individuals are especially prone to this type of attentional bias. Recently, it is suggested that alcohol cue exposure can also produce a general narrowing of attention consistent with the activation of approach motivational states. Based on previous models of addiction and recent research on the activation of approach motivational states, we predicted that impulsive individuals would demonstrate a constriction of attentional focus in response to alcohol cue exposure. Participants (n = 392) completed a task assessing attentional breadth in response to alcohol and non-alcohol cues, followed by measures of alcohol use and impulsivity. The findings revealed that impulsivity scores predicted narrowing of attentional scope following the presentation of alcohol cues for heavier drinkers but not for light drinkers. These results suggest that impulsive individuals who drink more heavily demonstrate a narrowing of attention in the presence of alcohol-related incentive cues. Implications for how these findings might account for the link between impulsivity and alcohol use and misuse are discussed.

  20. Personality and the prediction of high-risk trajectories of alcohol use during adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Monshouwer, K.; van de Schoot, R.; Janssen, T.; Vollebergh, W.A.; Wiers, R.W.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Early onset of alcohol use and persistent use of alcohol during adolescence have been associated with later problem behavior, such as heavy drinking and the use of other substances. Several personality characteristics have been related to the onset and persistent use of alcohol during

  1. Temporal Alcohol Availability Predicts First-Time Drunk Driving, but Not Repeat Offending

    OpenAIRE

    Schofield, Timothy P.; Denson, Thomas F.

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges...

  2. Alcohol in urban streetscapes: a comparison of the use of Google Street View and on-street observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Clews

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol-related harm is a major global health issue, and controls on alcohol marketing are one intervention utilized by governments. This study investigated the use of Google Street View (GSV as a novel research method for collecting alcohol-related data in the urban environment. Methods The efficacy of GSV and on-street observation by observer teams was compared by surveying 400 m stretches of 12 streets in Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand. Data on alcohol sale, alcohol-related advertising, health promotion materials, regulatory information and visible alcohol consumption were collected. Results A total of 403 retailers with evidence of alcohol sales and 1161 items of alcohol-related communication were identified in on-street observation. Of the latter, 1028 items (89 % were for alcohol marketing and 133 (11 % were for alcohol-related health promotion and alcohol regulation. GSV was found to be a less sensitive tool than on-street observation with only 50 % of the alcohol venues identified and 52 % of the venue-associated brand marketing identified. A high degree of inter-observer reliability was generally found between pairs of observers e.g., for the detection of alcohol retail venues the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC was 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.78 to 0.98 for on-street observation and 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.49 to 0.96 for using GSV. Conclusions GSV does not seem suitable for the comprehensive study of the influences on alcohol consumption in the urban streetscape. However, it may still have value for large, static objects in the environment and be more time efficient than traditional on-street observation measures, especially when used to collect data across a wide geographical area. Furthermore, GSV might become a more useful research tool in settings with better image quality (such as more ‘footpath views’ and with more regularly updated GSV imagery.

  3. Bidirectional Relations of Impulsive Personality and Alcohol Use Across Three Waves of Data Collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Alison J; Davis, Heather A; Milich, Richard; Smith, Gregory T; Charnigo, Richard

    2018-06-11

    To explore the bidirectional relations between alcohol use and three impulsive personality traits, to advance understanding of risk processes. 525 college students (mean age = 18.95 years) recruited in August 2008 and 2009 and followed up annually for three years. Personality and past/current substance use were assessed. T2 sensation seeking mediated the predictive relationship between T1 and T3 alcohol use, and T2 alcohol use mediated the predictive relationship between T1 and T3 sensation seeking. In addition, T2 alcohol problems mediated the predictive relationship between T1 alcohol use and T3 negative urgency. Findings support a bidirectional relationship between sensation seeking and alcohol use, and drinking anticipates drinking problems, which predict increases in negative urgency. For some individuals, there appears to be an ongoing process of increased risk in the form of increases in both drinking and high-risk personality traits.

  4. Youth perceptions of alcohol advertising: are current advertising regulations working?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Alexandra; Lam, Tina; Gilmore, William; Burns, Lucy; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Lenton, Simon; Lloyd, Belinda; Lubman, Dan; Ogeil, Rowan; Allsop, Steve

    2018-06-01

    We investigated young people's exposure to alcohol advertising, their intentions to consume and purchase alcohol products following the viewing of advertisements, and whether they perceived the actors in the advertisements as being under the age of 25 years. Face-to-face interviews were completed with 351 risky drinking 16-19-year-old Australians, with a sub-sample (n=68) responding to a range of alcohol advertisements in an in-depth interview. Participants were exposed to alcohol advertisements from an average of seven specific contexts in the past 12 months, with younger adolescents more likely to recall TV and outdoor billboards (n=351). Positive perception of advertisements was associated with increased intention to use and to purchase advertised products (n=68). A liqueur advertisement actor was perceived by 94% as being under 25 years-old, and almost 30% thought the advertisement was marketed at people younger than 18 years of age. Young people's perceptions of alcohol advertising are not necessarily in line with expert/industry assessment; products are sometimes marketed in a way that is highly appealing to young people. Greater appeal was associated with increased intention to consume and to purchase products. Implications for public health: These results indicate deficiencies in the effectiveness of current advertising codes in regard to protecting the health and wellbeing of adolescents. © 2018 The Authors.

  5. Market Power in Laboratory Emission Permit Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godby, R.

    2002-01-01

    Many proposals suggesting the use of markets to control pollution assume markets will be competitive. When markets do not exhibit competitive characteristics, however, should they still be expected to result in efficiency improvement relative to traditional approaches? This paper employs experimental economic methods to examine the effect of market structure on the use of marketable emissions permits. Results indicate that in a market with one dominant firm and a number of fringe firms, strategic manipulation occurs repeatedly in the laboratory as predicted by market power models, undermining the allocative and dynamic efficiency benefits such markets offer. When firms compete in a downstream product market dominated by the same single firm, market efficiency can actually be reduced with the implementation of permit markets. Final market efficiencies reflect initial endowments and are influenced by competitive conditions elsewhere in the economy, indicating that policy-makers should carefully consider whether markets are appropriate in such circumstances

  6. Can energy drinks increase the desire for more alcohol?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A

    2015-01-01

    Energy drinks, the fastest growing segment in the beverage market, have become popular mixers with alcohol. The emerging research examining the use of alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AmEDs) indicates that the combination of caffeine-containing energy drinks with alcohol may be riskier than the use of alcohol alone. The public health concerns arising from AmED use are documented in different research domains. Epidemiologic studies reveal that the consumption of AmEDs is frequent among young and underage drinkers, demographic groups that are more likely to experience the harms and hazards associated with alcohol use. In addition, for all consumers, elevated rates of binge drinking and risk of alcohol dependence have been associated with AmED use when compared to alcohol alone. Results from laboratory studies help explain why AmED use is associated with excessive intake of alcohol. When an energy drink (or caffeine) is combined with alcohol, the desire (or urge) to drink more alcohol is more pronounced in both humans and animals than with the same dose of alcohol alone. The experience of drinking alcohol appears to be more rewarding when combined with energy drinks. Given that caffeine in other foods and beverages increases preference for those products, further research on AmEDs may elucidate the underlying mechanisms that contribute to alcohol dependence. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  7. Antimicrobial efficacy of alcohol-based hand gels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilhermetti, M; Marques Wiirzler, L A; Castanheira Facio, B; da Silva Furlan, M; Campo Meschial, W; Bronharo Tognim, M C; Botelho Garcia, L; Luiz Cardoso, C

    2010-03-01

    In recent years, several commercial alcohol-based hand gels have appeared on the market to improve the hand-cleansing compliance of healthcare workers. Although the antimicrobial efficacy of these products has been reported in different countries, few studies have investigated this subject in Brazil. In this study, we assessed the antimicrobial efficacy of 12 alcohol-based hand gels produced in Brazil, containing 70% w/w or v/v ethyl alcohol as the active ingredient, according to the European Standard EN 1500 (EN 1500). The following alcohol gels were tested: Hand Gel, Voga Gel, Solumax Solugel, Doctor Clean, Rio Gel, Clear Gel, Sevengel, Hand CHC, Gel Bac, WBL-50 Gel, Sanigel and Soft Care Gel. In addition, 70% w/w ethyl alcohol and three alcohol-based hand rubs (Sterillium, Sterillium Gel, and Spitaderm), commonly used in Europe and effective according to EN 1500, were also tested. All the products tested, except for two, were approved by the EN 1500 test protocol with a 60s application. The results confirmed the antimicrobial efficacy of the majority of the alcohol gels produced in Brazil for hand hygiene of healthcare workers. Copyright 2009 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Locus of Control and Neuropsychological Performance in Chronic Alcoholics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, M. D.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Examined correlated neuropsychological performance in male chronic alcoholics and non-alcoholic controls. Results showed external locus of control (LOC-E) scores to predict performance on neuropsychological tests in alcoholics but not in controls. Suggests the LOC-E variables cannot account for the widespread differences between the groups on…

  9. Effect of an excise tax increase on the demand for low alcohol wine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller, Simone; Lockshin, Larry; Louviere, Jordan J.

    the per-capita alcohol consumption is 50% higher than the Australian average and likelihood of dying from alcohol is ten times the national rate. As a consequence, a comprehensive review of the Australian tax system has recommended wine to be taxed on a volumetric basis and that all alcoholic beverages...... be taxed to the same extent per litre of alcohol. Even though Australia has somewhat unique circumstances, the quest for moderate alcohol consumption has become of global importance. Reducing or limiting the level of harm from alcohol consumption has been the focus of government intervention, national......Purpose: The study examines the demand for low and very low alcohol wine products under the current Australian volumetric alcohol system and under an increase of excise tax for wine under an alcohol tax equalisation. The penetration and market share of normal strength and low alcohol wine...

  10. Perceived norms and alcohol use among first-year college student-athletes’ different types of friends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massengale, Kelley E. C.; Ma, Alice; Rulison, Kelly L.; Milroy, Jeffrey J.; Wyrick, David L.

    2017-01-01

    Objective To describe first-year college student-athletes’ friendship contexts and test whether their perceptions of alcohol use and approval by different types of friends are associated with their own alcohol use. Participants First-year student-athletes (N=2,622) from 47 colleges and universities participating in National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sports during February–March 2013. Methods Student-athletes completed online surveys during the baseline assessment of an alcohol and other drug prevention program evaluation. Analyses tested whether perceptions of friends’ alcohol use (descriptive norms) and perceptions of friends’ approval of alcohol use (injunctive norms) predicted their alcohol use. Results Both use and approval perceptions by upperclassmen, same-team, and most influential friends significantly predicted alcohol use. By contrast, only perceived use by first-year, non-team, and less influential friends significantly predicted alcohol use. Conclusions Athletics departments’ alcohol policies and prevention programming for first-year student-athletes should address the potential influence of different types of friends on alcohol use. PMID:27610821

  11. The concentration of the global alcohol industry and its penetration in the African region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Babor, Thomas F

    2015-04-01

    To describe the penetration and expansion of the global alcohol industry into the African region, as a context for exploring the implications for public health. Source materials for this study came primarily from market research and the business press. This was supplemented by industry sources (from websites, company annual reports), World Health Organization reports and the scientific literature. Drinking in Africa is characterized by high rates of abstention and a high prevalence of heavy episodic consumption among those who drink. Much of the region is currently experiencing a rapid rise in consumption. Rising populations and income and the rapid pace of urbanization make Africa very attractive to the global alcohol industry, and industry leaders have identified Africa as a key area for growth. The shift from collaboration to competition in Africa among the global alcohol companies has prompted increasing alcohol production, promotion, new product development, pricing schemes and stakeholder lobbying. Beer consumption has increased across most of the continent, and global brewers view themselves as legitimate players at the alcohol policy table. Weak alcohol policy environments may be compromised further in terms of public health protections by alcohol industry opposition to effective measures such as marketing regulations, availability controls and taxation. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. What do Dutch college students talk about when they talk about alcohol?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, H.; de Bruijn, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: Interpersonal communication about alcohol influences alcohol consumption, yet evidence is scarce about the content and valence of alcohol-related conversations and how these concepts predict alcohol consumption. Methods: By employing a correlational design among Dutch undergraduate

  13. The PV market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper forecasts the photovoltaic (PV) market growth for the 1990s. Ten years of PV history are reviewed and used to establish market trends in terms of average selling price (ASP) and kilowatts shipped by market segment. The market is segmented into indoor consumer, stand-alone, and grid-connected applications. Indoor consumer presently represents a saturated market and is fairly predictable. The stand-alone market (i.e. not connected to the utility grid) is fairly stable and predictable. The utility PV market however is highly dependent on a number of market factors such as the cost of conventional energy the cost of PV systems utility acceptance of PV and regulatory controls. Government and institutional regulations, environmental issues, and OPEC and Middle East politics will have the greatest impact on the cost of conventional fuels. Private and federal investment in PV technology development could have a significant impact on the cost of PV systems. Forecasts are provided through the year 2000 for indoor consumer stand-alone and utility markets

  14. Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

    2018-02-01

    Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

  15. Trade treaties and alcohol advertising policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Ellen

    2005-09-01

    Restrictions on alcohol advertising are vulnerable to challenge under international trade agreements. As countries negotiate new trade treaties and expand the scope of existing ones, the risk of such a challenge increases. While alcohol advertising restrictions normally do not distinguish between foreign and domestic products, this neutral character does not protect them from being challenged under trade rules. The article analyzes four provisions of trade agreements--expropriation, de facto discrimination, market access, and necessity--in relation to the jeopardy they pose for alcohol advertising restrictions. Key cases are reviewed to illustrate how these provisions have been used to either overturn existing advertising restrictions or prevent new ones from coming into force. The article also reports on the mixed results governments have had in trying to justify their regulations to trade panels and the stringent criteria imposed for proving that a regulation is "necessary."

  16. Relationship of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptom severity with severity of alcohol-related problems in a sample of inpatients with alcohol use disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozkurt M

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Muge Bozkurt,1 Cuneyt Evren,1 Gokhan Umut,1 Bilge Evren2 1Research, Treatment and Training Center for Alcohol and Substance Dependence, Bakirkoy Prof Dr Mazhar Osman Training and Research Hospital for Psychiatry, Neurology and Neurosurgery, 2Department of Psychiatry, Baltalimani State Hospital for Muskuloskeletal Disorders, Istanbul, Turkey Purpose: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD has been shown to be related to a higher risk of developing psychiatric problems such as depressive disorders, substance use disorder, and impulsivity. Adults who have comorbid ADHD and alcohol use disorder (AUD are at greater risk of negative outcomes. Thus, it is important to evaluate the relationship of ADHD symptoms and the severity of alcohol-related problems among patients with AUD. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of ADHD symptoms on severity of alcohol-related problems, while controlling the effects of depression and impulsivity in a sample of inpatients with AUD. Patients and methods: Participants (n=190 were evaluated with the Beck Depression Inventory, the Short Form Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, the Michigan Alcohol Screening Test, and the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale. Results: Severity of the scale scores was positively correlated with each other. Although severity of depression and impulsivity (particularly non-planning impulsivity predicted the severity of alcohol-related problems in a linear regression model, when severity of ADHD symptoms was included in the analysis, the inattentive subscale score, in particular, predicted the severity of alcohol-related problems together with non-planning impulsivity, whereas depression was no longer a predictor. Conclusion: These findings suggest that, together with non-planning impulsivity, symptoms of ADHD (particularly inattentive factor are an important factor that predict alcohol-related problems, while controlling the severity of depressive symptoms among inpatients

  17. Cognitive appraisals of alcohol use in early adolescence: Psychosocial predictors and reciprocal associations with alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colder, Craig R; Read, Jennifer P; Wieczorek, William F; Eiden, Rina D; Lengua, Liliana J; Hawk, Larry W; Trucco, Elisa M; Lopez-Vergara, Hector I

    2017-04-01

    Early adolescence is a dynamic period for the development of alcohol appraisals (expected outcomes of drinking and subjective evaluations of expected outcomes), yet the literature provides a limited understanding of psychosocial factors that shape these appraisals during this period. This study took a comprehensive view of alcohol appraisals and considered positive and negative alcohol outcome expectancies, as well as subjective evaluations of expected outcomes. Developmental-ecological theory guided examination of individual, peer, family, and neighborhood predictors of cognitive appraisals of alcohol and use. A community sample of 378 adolescents (mean age 11.5 years at Wave 1, 52% female) was assessed annually for 4 years. Longitudinal path analysis suggested that the most robust predictors of alcohol appraisals were peer norms. Furthermore, perceived likelihood of positive and negative alcohol outcomes prospectively predicted increases in drinking. There was limited support for appraisals operating as mediators of psychosocial risk and protective factors.

  18. Distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress predict women's problematic alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzhauer, Cathryn Glanton; Wemm, Stephanie; Wulfert, Edelgard

    2017-06-01

    Research has shown that measures of reactivity to distress-including distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress-are dysregulated in women who misuse alcohol. These variables may interact and create a risk profile for young adult women, reflecting patterns of stress reactivity that confer a risk for alcohol misuse. The current study tested this hypothesis by examining the independent and interactive associations of subjective distress tolerance, behavioral distress tolerance, and physiological stress reactivity with women's alcohol misuse. The study was conducted with a sample of 91 college women recruited on a large northeastern university campus. Results showed that subjective levels of distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress (skin conductance reactivity, SCR), but not behavioral distress tolerance, were independently associated with alcohol misuse. In addition, subjective distress tolerance moderated the relationship between SCR and negative alcohol-related consequences. Specifically, women with low physiological reactivity (SCR) to a stressful task and greater urge to quickly rid themselves of distress (low subjective distress tolerance) endorsed a significantly greater number of adverse consequences from their alcohol use. These results extend prior findings by showing that, even among a nonclinical sample of women, lower stress reactivity in combination with low subjective distress tolerance is associated with increased risk for various drinking-related negative consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Drinker Identity: Key Risk Factor for Adolescent Alcohol Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chia-Kuei; Corte, Colleen; Stein, Karen F.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Adolescent alcohol use continues to be a critical public health problem with both short- and long-term negative health consequences. Defining oneself in terms of alcohol, a drinking-related identity, has been shown to predict high levels of alcohol use. Because adolescence is the developmental period during which identity development…

  20. An Economic Perspective on Personality Traits and Alcohol Misuse: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Asia Sikora; Maclean, Johanna Catherine

    2015-06-01

    Recent economic work suggests a role for personality traits in determining socioeconomic outcomes. Much of this work has considered labor market outcomes, human capital accumulation, and, to some extent, health outcomes. No economic studies have explored the role of the Big Five taxonomy in alcohol use and misuse. Given defining characteristics of the Big Five, they are plausibly linked with these outcomes. Alcohol misuse is associated with large social costs through healthcare costs, traffic fatalities, violence, and reduced labor market productivity. Thus, understanding risk factors for such use is warranted. To investigate the associations between the Big Five, and measures of alcohol use and alcohol misuse. We obtain data on older adults 50 years and older from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Our outcomes include one measure of use (any use) and two measures of misuse (heavy drinking and binge drinking). Comparing across different measures of alcohol consumption can shed light on whether the Big Five are related to moderate alcohol use that need not impose social costs or alcohol misuse that may indeed impose such costs. A randomly selected sub-set of respondents completed a self-administered questionnaire developed for the Midlife Development Inventory in either the 2006 or 2008 round of the HRS. We use information collected in this instrument to generate our independent variables of primary interest: agreeableness, openness, extraversion, neuroticism, and conscientiousness traits. We find that the Big Five personality traits are linked with measures of both alcohol use and alcohol misuse. We observe substantial heterogeneity in the associations by personality traits. Specifically, agreeableness is associated with increased risk for alcohol use/misuse while extraversion and openness are negatively associated with risk for these patterns of alcohol consumption. We find no evidence that neuroticism or contentiousness predict alcohol use and misuse. We

  1. Prospective effects of possible selves on alcohol consumption in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chia-Kuei; Corte, Colleen; Stein, Karen F; Park, Chang G; Finnegan, Lorna; McCreary, Linda L

    2015-02-01

    Possible selves, cognitions about the self that reflect hopes, fears, and expectations for the future, are reliable predictors of health risk behaviors but have not been explored as predictors of adolescents' alcohol use. In a secondary analysis of data from 137 adolescents, we examined the influence of possible selves assessed in eighth grade on alcohol consumption (yes/no and level of use) in ninth grade. Having a most important feared possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted alcohol abstinence in ninth grade. Among those who reported alcohol use, having many hoped-for possible selves and a most important hoped-for possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted lower level of alcohol consumption in ninth grade. Interventions that foster the personal relevance and importance of academics and lead to the development of hoped-for possible selves may reduce adolescents' alcohol consumption. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Alcohol marketing in Africa: not an ordinary business | Obot | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Drug and Alcohol Studies. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 12, No 1 (2013) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  3. Alcohol Use and Antisocial Behavior in Late Adolescence: Characteristics of a Sample Attending a GED Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Meredith Reesman; Bergman, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    This study examined peer deviance, disinhibition, and ADHD symptoms as differential predictors of alcohol use, alcohol use disorder symptoms, and antisocial behavior. It was hypothesized that peer deviance would most strongly predict alcohol use while disinhibition and ADHD would predict alcohol use disorder symptoms and antisocial behavior.…

  4. Moral maturity and delinquency after prenatal alcohol exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonfeld, Amy M; Mattson, Sarah N; Riley, Edward P

    2005-07-01

    Prenatal exposure to alcohol is associated with cognitive, behavioral and social deficits, including delinquency. Although delinquent populations and those with intellectual and behavioral deficits exhibit impaired moral judgment and reasoning, this area remains unexplored in alcohol-exposed individuals. Moral maturity and delinquency were evaluated in 27 participants with prenatal alcohol exposure (ALC group) and 29 nonexposed controls (CON group) matched on age (range: 10-18), gender, handedness, socioeconomic status and ethnicity. Moral maturity was evaluated using the Sociomoral Reflection Measure-Short Form, and delinquency was evaluated with the Conduct Disorder (CD) Questionnaire. Additional measures included social desirability and inhibition. The ALC group performed at a lower level of moral maturity than the CON group. Whereas Verbal IQ primarily predicted this difference, a deficit on the moral value judgment having to do with relationships with others was specific to prenatal alcohol exposure. Furthermore, delinquency was higher in the ALC group, and specific sociomoral values were predictive of delinquent behavior. Finally, half of the children and adolescents with a history of prenatal alcohol exposure but without fetal alcohol syndrome had probable CD. The results of this study indicate that interventions aimed at reducing delinquency in those with prenatal alcohol exposure are necessary, and targeting moral judgment for this purpose may be beneficial.

  5. Eat, drink and gamble: marketing messages about ‘risky’ products in an Australian major sporting series

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background To investigate the alcohol, gambling, and unhealthy food marketing strategies during a nationally televised, free to air, sporting series in Australia. Methods/approach Using the Australian National Rugby League 2012 State of Origin three-game series, we conducted a mixed methods content analysis of the frequency, duration, placement and content of advertising strategies, comparing these strategies both within and across the three games. Results There were a total of 4445 episodes (mean = 1481.67, SD = 336.58), and 233.23 minutes (mean = 77.74, SD = 7.31) of marketing for alcoholic beverages, gambling products and unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages during the 360 minutes of televised coverage of the three State of Origin 2012 games. This included an average per game of 1354 episodes (SD = 368.79) and 66.29 minutes (SD = 7.62) of alcohol marketing; 110.67 episodes (SD = 43.89), and 8.72 minutes (SD = 1.29) of gambling marketing; and 17 episodes (SD = 7.55), and 2.74 minutes (SD = 0.78) of unhealthy food and beverage marketing. Content analysis revealed that there was a considerable embedding of product marketing within the match play, including within match commentary, sporting equipment, and special replays. Conclusions Sport is increasingly used as a vehicle for the promotion of range of ‘risky consumption’ products. This study raises important ethical and health policy questions about the extent and impact of saturation and incidental marketing strategies on health and wellbeing, the transparency of embedded marketing strategies, and how these strategies may influence product consumption. PMID:23914917

  6. Maize synfuel for E. German market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-10-31

    Bijenkorf Starch Company (ZBB) in the Netherlands plans to produce 30 million litre/year of alcohol gasoline additive for the East German market. Start up is scheduled for 1983 with costs around $33 million. Production costs are estimated at 95 Dutch cents/litre.

  7. Impulsivity interacts with momentary PTSD symptom worsening to predict alcohol use in male veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Anne C; Cooney, Ned L; Sartor, Carolyn E; Arias, Albert J; Rosen, Marc I

    2018-04-11

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is prevalent among veterans who served post-9/11, and co-occurs with problem alcohol and substance use. Studies using ecological momentary assessment have examined the temporal association between time-varying PTSD symptoms and alcohol use. Results suggest individual differences in these associations. We tested hypotheses that alcohol use measured by momentary assessment would be explained by acute increases in PTSD symptoms, and the PTSD-alcohol association would be moderated by trait impulsivity. A sample of 28 male post-9/11-era veterans who reported past-month PTSD symptoms and risky alcohol use were enrolled. On a quasi-random schedule, participants completed three electronic assessments daily for 28 days measuring past 2-h PTSD symptoms, alcohol, and substance use. At baseline, trait impulsivity was measured by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale. Past-month PTSD symptoms and alcohol use were measured. Using three-level hierarchical models, number of drinks recorded by momentary assessment was modeled as a function of change in PTSD symptoms since last assessment, controlling for lag-1 alcohol and substance use and other covariates. A cross-level interaction tested moderation of the within-time PTSD-alcohol association by impulsivity. A total of 1,522 assessments were completed. A positive within-time association between PTSD symptom change and number of drinks was demonstrated. The association was significantly moderated by impulsivity. Results provide preliminary support for a unique temporal relationship between acute PTSD symptom change and alcohol use among veterans with trait impulsiveness. If replicated in a clinical sample, results may have implications for a targeted momentary intervention.

  8. Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This

  9. Energy price forecast by market analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jongepier, A.G.

    2000-01-01

    A power trader benefits from accurate price predictions. Based on market analyses, KEMA Connect has developed - in cooperation with Essent Energy Trading - a market model, enhancing the insight into market operation and one's own actions and thus resulting in accurate price predictions

  10. Market Imperfections and Firm-Sponsored Training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Picchio, M.; van Ours, J.C.

    2010-01-01

    Recent human capital theories predict that labor market frictions and product market competition influence firm-sponsored training. Using matched worker-firm data from Dutch manufacturing, our paper empirically assesses the validity of these predictions. We find that a decrease in labor market

  11. Alcohol combustion chemistry

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani

    2014-10-01

    Alternative transportation fuels, preferably from renewable sources, include alcohols with up to five or even more carbon atoms. They are considered promising because they can be derived from biological matter via established and new processes. In addition, many of their physical-chemical properties are compatible with the requirements of modern engines, which make them attractive either as replacements for fossil fuels or as fuel additives. Indeed, alcohol fuels have been used since the early years of automobile production, particularly in Brazil, where ethanol has a long history of use as an automobile fuel. Recently, increasing attention has been paid to the use of non-petroleum-based fuels made from biological sources, including alcohols (predominantly ethanol), as important liquid biofuels. Today, the ethanol fuel that is offered in the market is mainly made from sugar cane or corn. Its production as a first-generation biofuel, especially in North America, has been associated with publicly discussed drawbacks, such as reduction in the food supply, need for fertilization, extensive water usage, and other ecological concerns. More environmentally friendly processes are being considered to produce alcohols from inedible plants or plant parts on wasteland. While biofuel production and its use (especially ethanol and biodiesel) in internal combustion engines have been the focus of several recent reviews, a dedicated overview and summary of research on alcohol combustion chemistry is still lacking. Besides ethanol, many linear and branched members of the alcohol family, from methanol to hexanols, have been studied, with a particular emphasis on butanols. These fuels and their combustion properties, including their ignition, flame propagation, and extinction characteristics, their pyrolysis and oxidation reactions, and their potential to produce pollutant emissions have been intensively investigated in dedicated experiments on the laboratory and the engine scale

  12. Predicting Regulatory Compliance in Beer Advertising on Facebook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F

    2017-11-01

    The prevalence of alcohol advertising has been growing on social media platforms. The purpose of this study was to evaluate alcohol advertising on Facebook for regulatory compliance and thematic content. A total of 50 Budweiser and Bud Light ads posted on Facebook within 1 month of the 2015 NFL Super Bowl were evaluated for compliance with a self-regulated alcohol advertising code and for thematic content. An exploratory sensitivity/specificity analysis was conducted to determine if thematic content could predict code violations. The code violation rate was 82%, with violations prevalent in guidelines prohibiting the association of alcohol with success (Guideline 5) and health benefits (Guideline 3). Overall, 21 thematic content areas were identified. Displaying the product (62%) and adventure/sensation seeking (52%) were the most prevalent. There was perfect specificity (100%) for 10 content areas for detecting any code violation (animals, negative emotions, positive emotions, games/contests/promotions, female characters, minorities, party, sexuality, night-time, sunrise) and high specificity (>80%) for 10 content areas for detecting violations of guidelines intended to protect minors (animals, negative emotions, famous people, friendship, games/contests/promotions, minorities, responsibility messages, sexuality, sunrise, video games). The high prevalence of code violations indicates a failure of self-regulation to prevent potentially harmful content from appearing in alcohol advertising, including explicit code violations (e.g. sexuality). Routine violations indicate an unwillingness to restrict advertising content for public health purposes, and statutory restrictions may be necessary to sufficiently deter alcohol producers from repeatedly violating marketing codes. Violations of a self-regulated alcohol advertising code are prevalent in a sample of beer ads published on Facebook near the US National Football League's Super Bowl. Overall, 16 thematic content

  13. Does alcohol advertising promote adolescent drinking? Results from a longitudinal assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellickson, Phyllis L; Collins, Rebecca L; Hambarsoomians, Katrin; McCaffrey, Daniel F

    2005-02-01

    To examine the relationship between exposure to different forms of alcohol advertising and subsequent drinking among US adolescents and assess whether exposure to an alcohol and drug prevention program mitigates any such relationship. Regression models with multiple control variables examined the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising in grade 8 and grade 9 drinking for two groups of South Dakotan adolescents: (1) seventh-grade non-drinkers (n = 1206) and (2) seventh-grade drinkers (n = 1905). Interactions between the intervention program and the significant advertising predictors were tested. Forty-one middle schools in South Dakota, USA. A total of 3111 seventh-graders followed through grade 9. Advertising variables were constructed for four types of alcohol advertising-television, in-store displays, magazines and concession stands. Other predictors tested included measures tapping social influences, social bonds, problem behavior, alcohol beliefs, television exposure and demographics. For seventh-grade non-drinkers, exposure to in-store beer displays predicted drinking onset by grade 9; for seventh-grade drinkers, exposure to magazines with alcohol advertisements and to beer concession stands at sports or music events predicted frequency of grade 9 drinking. Although exposure to television beer advertising had a significant bivariate relationship with alcohol use for grade 7 non-drinkers, it was not a significant predictor of drinking for either group in multivariate analyses. Participation in the prevention program, ALERT Plus, reduced future drinking for both groups and counteracted the effect of in-store beer displays. Several forms of alcohol advertising predict adolescent drinking; which sources dominate depends on the child's prior experience with alcohol. Alcohol prevention programs and policies should help children counter alcohol advertising from multiple sources and limit exposure to these sources.

  14. Is response to price equal for those with higher alcohol consumption?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrnes, Joshua; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Petrie, Dennis; Doran, Christopher M

    2016-01-01

    To determine if taxation policies that increase the price of alcohol differentially reduce alcohol consumption for heavy drinkers in Australia. A two-part demand model for alcohol consumption is used to determine the price elasticity of alcohol. Quantile regression is used to determine the price elasticity estimates for various levels of consumption. The study uses Australian data collected by the National Drug Strategy Household Survey for the years 2001, 2004 and 2007. Measures of individual annual alcohol consumption were derived from three waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey; alcohol prices were taken from market research reports. For the overall population of drinkers, a 1% increase in the price of alcohol was associated with a 0.96% (95% CI -0.35%, -1.57%) reduction in alcohol consumption. For those in the highest 10% of drinkers by average amount consumed, a 1% increase in the price of alcohol was associated with a 1.26% (95% CI 0.82%, 1.70%) reduction in consumption. Within Australia, policies that increase the price of alcohol are about equally effective in relative terms for reducing alcohol consumption both for the general population and among those who drink heavily.

  15. Genetic Influences on Response to Alcohol and Response to Pharmacotherapies for Alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enoch, Mary-Anne

    2014-01-01

    Although very many individuals drink alcohol at safe levels, a significant proportion escalates their consumption with addiction as the end result. Alcoholism is a common, moderately heritable, psychiatric disorder that is accompanied by considerable morbidity and mortality. Variation in clinical presentation suggests inter-individual variation in mechanisms of vulnerability including genetic risk factors. The development of addiction is likely to involve numerous functional genetic variants of small effects. The first part of this review will focus on genetic factors underlying inter-individual variability in response to alcohol consumption, including variants in alcohol metabolizing genes that produce an aversive response (the flushing syndrome) and variants that predict the level of subjective and physiological response to alcohol. The second part of this review will report on genetic variants that identify subgroups of alcoholics who are more likely to respond to pharmacotherapy to reduce levels of drinking or maintain abstinence. Genetic analyses of the level of response to alcohol, particularly of the functional OPRM1 A118G polymorphism and 5′ and 3′ functional polymorphisms in SLC6A4, are beginning to provide insights into the etiology of alcoholism and also genotype-stratified subgroup responses to naltrexone and SSRIs / ondansetron respectively. Because of large inter-ethnic variation in allele frequencies, the relevance of these functional polymorphisms will vary between ethnic groups. However there are relatively few published studies in this field, particularly with large sample sizes in pharmacogenetic studies, therefore it is premature to draw any conclusions at this stage. PMID:24220019

  16. The gas market and sector in France. Situation and predictions 2018 - Sector and competitive analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    Through a detailed analysis of market determining factors, of evolutions of supply and demand, and of major events in firms life, this set of two reports proposes an analysis of the recent situation of the gas sector and of the evolutions of the competitive game. The first report on situation and predictions which is updated three times a year, proposes a synthesis on the consequences of the evolution of the economic environment, on major trends noticed for the sector, and on predictable evolutions. It proposes the most recent predictions regarding natural gas consumption in France and the turnover of the gas sector. It highlights recent events for companies of the sector: takeovers, investments, restructuring, introduction of new products, and so on. It proposes a sector-based dashboard which contains all the critical figures useful to analyse the sector situation (activity determining factors, key figures for the sector and its environment). The second report (the annual one) proposes an overview of trends and competition within the gas sector. It gives an overview of some basic aspects of the activity (sector organisation, gas categories, main customer markets, gas consumption in industry), and of its determining factors, analyses the sector environment (sites connected to the natural gas network, evolution of average temperatures in France, production by chemical industry, by the food industry, and by metallurgy and oil refining, thermal production of electricity, regulatory evolution regarding supports to energy efficiency, and new opportunities). The evolution of the sector activity is analysed through its trends and indicators (turnovers, gas consumption, butane-propane deliveries, wholesale prices, regulated tariffs). The economic structure is also analysed: aspects related to the upstream part (extraction, injection of biogas, natural gas main input and output points, transport and storage, natural gas distribution), and aspects related to gas provision

  17. Alcohol-related hot-spot analysis and prediction : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This project developed methods to more accurately identify alcohol-related crash hot spots, ultimately allowing for more effective and efficient enforcement and safety campaigns. Advancements in accuracy came from improving the calculation of spatial...

  18. The social costs of alcohol misuse in Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saar, Indrek

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the social costs of alcohol misuse in Estonia in 2006. Using a prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, both direct and indirect costs were considered, including tangible costs associated with health care, criminal justice, rescue services, damage to property, premature mortality, incarceration, incapability of working due to illnesses, and lower labor productivity. The results show that alcohol misuse cost Estonia more than EUR 200 million in 2006. The costs involved are estimated to represent 1.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP), which is relatively high in comparison with many other countries. In addition, the state receives less receipts from the alcohol excise tax than the costs that it incurs as a consequence of alcohol misuse, which points to the existence of economic inefficiency with respect to the alcohol market. The results of this study suggest that there is definitely a need for further cost-benefit analysis to reach a conclusion regarding the possible utility of government intervention. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Predicting the Currency Market in Online Gaming via Lexicon-Based Analysis on Its Online Forum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Bin Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transactions involving virtual currencies are becoming increasingly common, including those in online games. In response, predicting the market price of a virtual currency is an important task for all involved, but it has not yet attracted much attention from researchers. This paper presents user opinions from online forums in a massive multiplayer online game (MMOG setting widely used around the world. We propose a method for predicting the next-day rise and fall of the currency used in an MMOG environment. Based on analysis of online forum users’ opinions, we predict daily fluctuations in the price of a currency used in an MMOG setting. Focusing specifically on the World of Warcraft game, one of the most widely used MMOGs, we demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the fluctuation in value of virtual currencies used in this game community.

  20. Usefulness of indirect alcohol biomarkers for predicting recidivism of drunk-driving among previously convicted drunk-driving offenders: results from the recidivism of alcohol-impaired driving (ROAD) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maenhout, Thomas M; Poll, Anneleen; Vermassen, Tijl; De Buyzere, Marc L; Delanghe, Joris R

    2014-01-01

    In several European countries, drivers under the influence (DUI), suspected of chronic alcohol abuse are referred for medical and psychological examination. This study (the ROAD study, or Recidivism Of Alcohol-impaired Driving) investigated the usefulness of indirect alcohol biomarkers for predicting drunk-driving recidivism in previously convicted drunk-driving offenders. The ROAD study is a prospective study (2009-13) that was performed on 517 randomly selected drivers in Belgium. They were convicted for drunk-driving for which their licence was confiscated. The initial post-arrest blood samples were collected and analysed for percentage carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (%CDT), transaminsase activities [alanine amino transferase (ALT), aspartate amino transferase (AST)], gamma-glutamyltransferase (γGT) and red cell mean corpuscular volume (MCV). The observation time for each driver was 3 years and dynamic. A logistic regression analysis revealed that ln(%CDT) (P drunk-driving. The ROAD index (which includes ln(%CDT), ln(γGT), -ln(ALT) and the sex of the driver) was calculated and had a significantly higher area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.71) than the individual biomarkers for drunk-driving recidivism. Drivers with a high risk of recidivating (ROAD index ≥ 25%; third tertile) could be distinguished from drivers with an intermediate risk (16% ≤ ROAD index drunk-driving. The association with gamma-glutamyltransferase, alanine amino transferase and the sex of the driver could have additional value for identifying drunk-drivers at intermediate risk of recidivism. Non-specific indirect alcohol markers, such as alanine amino transferase, gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate amino transferase and red cell mean corpuscular volume have minimal added value to % carbohydrate-deficient transferrin for distinguishing drunk drivers with a low or high risk of recidivism. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.