WorldWideScience

Sample records for alcohol marketing predicts

  1. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  2. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Tanski, Susanne E; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D

    2016-02-01

    Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  3. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  4. Assessing restrictiveness of national alcohol marketing policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2014-01-01

    To develop an approach for monitoring national alcohol marketing policies globally, an area of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Alcohol Strategy. Data on restrictiveness of alcohol marketing policies came from the 2002 and 2008 WHO Global Surveys on Alcohol and Health. We included four scales in a sensitivity analysis to determine optimal weights to score countries on their marketing policies and applied the selected scale to assess national marketing policy restrictiveness. Nearly, 36% of countries had no marketing restrictions. The overall restrictiveness levels were not significantly different between 2002 and 2008. The number of countries with strict marketing regulations did not differ across years. This method of monitoring alcohol marketing restrictiveness helps track progress towards implementing WHO'S Global Alcohol Strategy. Findings indicate a consistent lack of restrictive policies over time, making this a priority area for national and global action. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  5. Distorted Facets of Marketing Ethics for Alcoholic Beer Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newaj Avinash

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Marketing is the art of delivering value whilst ethical marketing is to provide this value through what is morally right. This new era customers are well informed, more knowledgeable, less vulnerable to unethical practices and cannot be easily manipulated by marketers. Many companies are thus, moving towards ethical marketing so as to develop trust among existing and new customers. Strict regulations by the Mauritian government have further forced marketers to act ethically; whereby the advertising of alcoholic beers has been banned. Yet, indirect strategies have been adopted by marketers so as to pave their way in this competitive industry. What are they? Are customers aware about them and are they influenced? Road accidents, social violence and health problems are associated to such malpractice. This study has shed light on the above and measures have been proposed for the benefit of customers, marketers and the government. This study was connected to the ethical theories.

  6. Brain reactivity to alcohol and cannabis marketing during sobriety and intoxication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B; Theunissen, Eef L; Kuypers, Kim P C; Evers, Elisabeth A; Stiers, Peter; Toennes, Stefan W; Witteman, Jurriaan; van Dalen, Wim; Ramaekers, Johannes G

    2017-05-01

    Drugs of abuse stimulate striatal dopamine release and activate reward pathways. This study examined the impact of alcohol and cannabis marketing on the reward circuit in alcohol and cannabis users while sober and intoxicated. It was predicted that alcohol and cannabis marketing would increase striatal activation when sober and that reward sensitivity would be less during alcohol and cannabis intoxication. Heavy alcohol (n = 20) and regular cannabis users (n = 21) participated in a mixed factorial study involving administration of alcohol and placebo in the alcohol group and cannabis and placebo in the cannabis group. Non-drug users (n = 20) served as between group reference. Brain activation after exposure to alcohol and cannabis marketing movies was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging and compared between groups while sober and compared with placebo while intoxicated. Implicit alcohol and cannabis cognitions were assessed by means of a single-category implicit association test. Alcohol and cannabis marketing significantly increased striatal BOLD activation across all groups while sober. Striatal activation however decreased during intoxication with alcohol and cannabis. Implicit associations with cannabis marketing cues were significantly more positive in alcohol and cannabis users as compared with non-drug using controls. Public advertising of alcohol or cannabis use elicits striatal activation in the brain's reward circuit. Reduction of marketing would reduce brain exposure to reward cues that motivate substance use. Conversely, elevated dopamine levels protect against the reinforcing potential of marketing. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Regulation of alcohol marketing: a global view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna

    2005-09-01

    The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves.

  8. Economic Culture and Prediction Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid N. Alhayyan

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available How do individual characteristics, such as economic culture, influence the trading behaviors and the acceptance of any consensus reached through prediction market mechanisms? This research explores variations in the usage of prediction (or information markets that are explained by some of the traders' cultural differences. Four forms of capitalism: state-guided, oligarchic, big-firm, and entrepreneurial, proposed by Baumol et al, are employed to capture aspects of traders' differences. To assess participants' economic culture along the spectrum of capitalist forms a survey instrument has been developed, validated, and tested. Moreover, several concepts related to trading participation, trading patterns, trader's overall performance and trader's acceptance of market outcomes are described and hypothesized against the economic culture forms. A series of research questions are proposed that explore how trader economic culture may affect prediction market use. The research landscape specified by Jones et al. is extended to recognize the potential differences between trader and market outcomes.

  9. About stock markets predictability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hicham Benjelloun

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We argue that the financial markets have a predetermined outcome. They behave deterministically but appear to follow random patterns. Stock prices have nothing to do with future expectations; they are a reflection of previous convictions coming from the confident investors. A financial crisis is the result of the lack of confidence that characterizes a market moments before the crisis. Stocks returns are perfectly correlated to each other and it is possible to obtain high gains consistently. Finally we provide a different way of assessing risk and suggest a method to sense future performances.

  10. Alcoholism and alcohol drinking habits predicted from alcohol dehydrogenase genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolstrup, J.S.; Nordestgaard, Børge; Rasmussen, S.

    2008-01-01

    /1 genotype. Results for ADH1B and ADH1C genotypes among men and women were similar. Finally, because slow ADH1B alcohol degradation is found in more than 90% of the white population compared to less than 10% of East Asians, the population attributable risk of heavy drinking and alcoholism by ADH1B.1......Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 white...... men and women from the general population, we found that men and women with ADH1B slow vs fast alcohol degradation drank more alcohol and had a higher risk of everyday drinking, heavy drinking, excessive drinking and of alcoholism. For example, the weekly alcohol intake was 9.8 drinks (95% confidence...

  11. Misuse of social media marketing by alcohol companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakirhusain A Shaikh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Epidemiological transition in the form of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs now becoming the main cause of mortality and morbidity is very much evident even in developing countries like India. Alcohol is an important risk factor for NCD. The use of alcohol is increasing especially in young people and women. This increased use can be attributed to aggressive and innovative marketing by alcohol, in spite of and due to restrictions on its marketing. Social media, in recent times, has been misused by alcohol companies for marketing their products legally, due to legal loophole. The present study examined the reach of alcohol companies on social media and the marketing strategies used by them. Design, Settings, Participants: Facebook, Twitter and YouTube were explored for accounts and content by alcohol companies for marketing their product. Policies of social media sites pertaining to alcohol marketing were also studied. Measurements: Alcohol marketing was measured in terms of content posted by alcohol companies, use of direct or surrogate advertisement and engagement with users. Findings: Alcohol companies have been conveniently using social media to target young urban population with direct and surrogate advertisements of their products. Current social media policies and laws are ineffective in controlling it. Conclusions: Amendment of laws pertaining to alcohol marketing to include social media also in its ambit is necessary. Social media sites should revise their policies to prevent alcohol marketing and promotion especially to underaged users.

  12. Alcohol marketing in Africa: not an ordinary business | Obot | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Several factors account for the increasing harm associated with alcohol in Africa among which are the availability of a wide variety of alcoholic beverages, rising urban populations, more disposable income to purchase alcohol, and unrestrained marketing and promotion of alcohol. Using a variety of strategies, producers of ...

  13. Measuring Alcohol Marketing Engagement: The Development and Psychometric Properties of the Alcohol Marketing Engagement Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Angela; Morse, David T; Hood, Kristina; Walker, Courtney

    Ample evidence exists in support of the influence of media, both traditional and electronic, on perceptions and engagement with alcohol marketing. We describe the development, calibration, and evidence for technical quality and utility for a new measure, the Alcohol Marketing Engagement Scale. Using two samples of college undergraduates (n1 = 199, n2 = 732), we collected field test responses to a total of 13 items. Initial support for scale validity is presented via correlations with attributes previously shown to be related to alcohol engagement. While the joint map of estimated scale locations of items and respondents indicates the need for further scale development, the results of the present analyses are promising. Implications for use in research are discussed.

  14. Alcoholism and alcohol drinking habits predicted from alcohol dehydrogenase genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolstrup, J.S.; Nordestgaard, Børge; Rasmussen, S.

    2008-01-01

    Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 white...... men and women from the general population, we found that men and women with ADH1B slow vs fast alcohol degradation drank more alcohol and had a higher risk of everyday drinking, heavy drinking, excessive drinking and of alcoholism. For example, the weekly alcohol intake was 9.8 drinks (95% confidence......, individuals with ADH1C slow vs fast alcohol degradation had a higher risk of heavy and excessive drinking. For example, the OR for heavy drinking was 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.8) among men with the ADH1C.1/2 genotype and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0-1.9) among men with the ADH1B.2/2 genotype, compared with men with the ADH1C.1...

  15. Predicting alcohol use by adolescent males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udry, J R

    1991-10-01

    An attempt was made to predict alcohol use among 101 American white boys aged 13-16. The model combined genetic and social variables. The analysis revealed evidence of a genotype-environment interaction and thus the use of either the biological or social variables alone poorly predicts alcohol use.

  16. Profits or people? The informative case of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally

    2014-11-28

    To analyse influence on alcohol marketing policy in New Zealand. Document and literature review. There is a powerful argument and popular support for restricting alcohol marketing but no significant policy action taken. Greater priority has been placed on the profits of influential corporations compared with protecting the health of future generations of New Zealanders.

  17. Intoxigenic digital spaces? Youth, social networking sites and alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Richard; Casswell, Sally

    2010-09-01

    To examine how young people in New Zealand engage with alcohol and reproduce alcohol marketing messages and alcohol-related branding in 'Bebo', a popular social networking site (SNS) on the Internet. Data are drawn from information posted on approximately 150 Bebo Web pages and analysed by way of textual analysis and cyberspace ethnography. Social networking sites, such as Bebo, provide young people with a digital space in which to share a range of alcohol marketing messages via peer-to-peer transmission. Bebo also enables youth to communicate to one another how they consume alcohol and their views of alcohol marketing messages. The information being shared by young people who use Bebo is openly provided in the form of personal information, forum comments, digital photographs and answering quizzes about their engagement with alcohol. Through this sharing of information in the digital Internet environment, young people are creating 'intoxigenic social identities' as well as 'intoxigenic digital spaces' that further contribute towards the normalisation of youth consumption of alcohol. A better understanding of how youth are using the Internet to share their experiences with alcohol and engagement with alcohol-related messages is crucial to public health research as alcohol marketing practices rapidly evolve.

  18. Market research of the Russian Alcohol Market for a New French Champaign Brand «MENOR»

    OpenAIRE

    Khodova, Anastasiia

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to study the alcohol market in Russian Federation for the new French champagne brand MENOR. The research was conducted over a period of past 7 years with additional historical dates of past 30 years. The main objective was to define the Russian alcohol market and its development, in addition to clarify whether the market is open and relevant to work with the imported brands. Therefore the research questions are: What is the alcohol market in Russia? How the alcohol ...

  19. Flavored alcoholic beverages: an international marketing campaign that targets youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, James F; Johnsson, Diane

    2005-09-01

    Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) were first introduced into the alcohol market in the early I980s in the form of wine coolers. FABs are sweet, relatively low alcohol content beverages that are designed for "entry-level" drinkers. The alcohol industry has introduced new products and production methods to expand the category's popularity. Research suggests that they are popular with underage drinkers, particularly teenage girls, and that the industry uses marketing practices that appear to target youth. FABs are now marketed globally, and their production and marketing vary by country based on national regulatory restraints. In the United States, industry representations that the products are malt beverages for regulatory purposes appears to violate many state laws because the alcohol in the FABs is derived from distilled spirits. Recommendations for regulatory reform, including new legal definitions of FABs, increased taxes, and restrictions on availability, are applicable at both national and state levels.

  20. Development of a Climate Prediction Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulston, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

  1. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; van Dalen, Wim

    2016-10-01

    This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for non-alcohol branded media exposure. Prospective observational study (11-12- and 14-17-month intervals), using a three-wave autoregressive cross-lagged model. School-based sample in 181 state-funded schools in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland. A total of 9075 eligible respondents participated in the survey (mean age 14 years, 49.5% male. Adolescents reported their frequency of past-month drinking and binge drinking. Alcohol marketing exposure was measured by a latent variable with 13 items measuring exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising, alcohol sport sponsorship, music event/festival sponsorship, ownership alcohol-branded promotional items, reception of free samples and exposure to price offers. Confounders were age, gender, education, country, internet use, exposure to non-alcohol sponsored football championships and television programmes without alcohol commercials. The analyses showed one-directional long-term effects of alcohol marketing exposure on drinking (exposure T1 on drinking T2: β = 0.420 (0.058), P  0.05). Similar results were found in the binge drinking model (exposure T1 on binge T2: β = 0.409 (0.054), P  0.05). There appears to be a one-way effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' alcohol use over time, which cannot be explained by either previous drinking or exposure to non-alcohol-branded marketing. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  2. Do premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence also predict the failure to recover from alcoholism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim; Nickel, Elizabeth J

    2010-01-01

    In a search for viable endophenotypes of alcoholism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism.......In a search for viable endophenotypes of alcoholism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism....

  3. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, A. de; Tanghe, J.; Leeuw, R.N.H. de; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Anderson, P.D.; Beccaria, F.; Bujalski, M.; Celata, C.; Gosselt, J.; Schreckenberg, D.; Slodownik, L.; Wothge, J.; Dalen, W. van

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims: This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for

  4. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents’ alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordi F.; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; Dalen, Wim E.

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims: This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents’ drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for

  5. University-Affiliated Alcohol Marketing Enhances the Incentive Salience of Alcohol Cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, Bruce D; Loersch, Chris; Ito, Tiffany A; Levsen, Meredith P; Volpert-Esmond, Hannah I; Fleming, Kimberly A; Bolls, Paul; Carter, Brooke K

    2018-01-01

    We tested whether affiliating beer brands with universities enhances the incentive salience of those brands for underage drinkers. In Study 1, 128 undergraduates viewed beer cues while event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded. Results showed that beer cues paired with in-group backgrounds (logos for students' universities) evoked an enhanced P3 ERP component, a neural index of incentive salience. This effect varied according to students' levels of identification with their university, and the amplitude of the P3 response prospectively predicted alcohol use over 1 month. In Study 2 ( N = 104), we used a naturalistic advertisement exposure to experimentally create in-group brand associations and found that this manipulation caused an increase in the incentive salience of the beer brand. These data provide the first evidence that marketing beer via affiliating it with students' universities enhances the incentive salience of the brand for underage students and that this effect has implications for their alcohol involvement.

  6. Alcohol Marketing Receptivity, Marketing-Specific Cognitions, and Underage Binge Drinking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McClure, A.C.; Stoolmiller, M.; Tanski, S.E.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Sargent, J.D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation

  7. Evaluating Prediction Markets for Internal Control Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    would influence the survey indicators, the prediction market prices, and their sensitivity to misinformation. Finally, this study reveal s the results...realized in an academ ic setting. With a controll able number of influencing factors, the prediction markets were installed in several uni versity courses...of acceptance and the limited number of influencing factors in an academic setting, it is expected that the prediction market will perform

  8. Multinational Alcohol Market Development and Public Health: Diageo in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2015-11-01

    Alcohol is a risk factor for communicable and noncommunicable diseases, and alcohol consumption is rising steadily in India. The growth of multinational alcohol corporations, such as Diageo, contributes to India's changing alcohol environment. We provide a brief history of India's alcohol regulation for context and examine Diageo's strategies for expansion in India in 2013 and 2014. Diageo is attracted to India's younger generation, women, and emerging middle class for growth opportunities. Components of Diageo's responsibility strategy conflict with evidence-based public health recommendations for reducing harmful alcohol consumption. Diageo's strategies for achieving market dominance in India are at odds with public health evidence. We conclude with recommendations for protecting public health in emerging markets.

  9. Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results...... in equilibrium and the impact of this manipulation on market prices...

  10. Alcohol marketing receptivity, marketing-specific cognitions, and underage binge drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E; Engels, Rutger C M E; Sargent, James D

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. This study describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1,734 U.S. 15- to 20-year-old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including TV time, Internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30-day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies, and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for sociodemographics, personality, and peer drinking. Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30-day binge drinking. Correlations between mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 to 0.47), and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand to drink, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on

  11. Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Jean; Coleman, James; White, Martin

    2014-05-20

    Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast--an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team--England--suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here.

  12. Parental alcohol involvement and adolescent alcohol expectancies predict alcohol involvement in male adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranford, James A; Zucker, Robert A; Jester, Jennifer M; Puttler, Leon I; Fitzgerald, Hiram E

    2010-09-01

    Current models of adolescent drinking behavior hypothesize that alcohol expectancies mediate the effects of other proximal and distal risk factors. This longitudinal study tested the hypothesis that the effects of parental alcohol involvement on their children's drinking behavior in mid-adolescence are mediated by the children's alcohol expectancies in early adolescence. A sample of 148 initially 9-11 year old boys and their parents from a high-risk population and a contrast group of community families completed measures of drinking behavior and alcohol expectancies over a 6-year interval. We analyzed data from middle childhood (M age = 10.4 years), early adolescence (M age = 13.5 years), and mid-adolescence (M age = 16.5 years). The sample was restricted only to adolescents who had begun to drink by mid-adolescence. Results from zero-inflated Poisson regression analyses showed that 1) maternal drinking during their children's middle childhood predicted number of drinking days in middle adolescence; 2) negative and positive alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted odds of any intoxication in middle adolescence; and 3) paternal alcoholism during their children's middle childhood and adolescents' alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted frequency of intoxication in middle adolescence. Contrary to predictions, child alcohol expectancies did not mediate the effects of parental alcohol involvement in this high-risk sample. Different aspects of parental alcohol involvement, along with early adolescent alcohol expectancies, independently predicted adolescent drinking behavior in middle adolescence. Alternative pathways for the influence of maternal and paternal alcohol involvement and implications for expectancy models of adolescent drinking behavior were discussed.

  13. Culture clash: alcohol marketing and public health aspirations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Geoffrey; de Wever, Johanna

    2008-03-01

    It is of no coincidence that a number of recent Harm Reduction Digests have addressed the issue of the reduction of alcohol-related harm. Despite the dominant focus on illicit drug use in the popular discourse, alcohol remains Australia's number one drug problem, as it is in many other developed countries. In this Digest Munro and de Wever use the 'four Ps' of marketing: product, price, place and promotion, to critique the two decades industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing. They conclude that if we are going to develop policies which effectively change Australian drinking culture to reduce alcohol-related harm, we need first to accept that the alcohol industry and the health field have separate and conflicting interests.

  14. Alcohol Marketing Receptivity, Marketing-specific Cognitions and Underage Binge Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Auden C.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Sargent, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. Methods This paper describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1734 U.S. 15–20 year old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including television time, internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30 day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for socio-demographics, personality and peer drinking. Results Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30 day binge drinking. Correlations among mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 – 0.47) and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Conclusions Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. PMID:23256927

  15. Alcohol marketing and youth alcohol consumption: a systematic review of longitudinal studies published since 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David; Noel, Jonathan; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Lobstein, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Youth alcohol consumption is a major global public health concern. Previous reviews have concluded that exposure to alcohol marketing was associated with earlier drinking initiation and higher alcohol consumption among youth. This review examined longitudinal studies published since those earlier reviews. Peer-reviewed papers were identified in medical, scientific and social science databases, supplemented by examination of reference lists. Non-peer-reviewed papers were included if they were published by organizations deemed to be authoritative, were fully referenced and contained primary data not available elsewhere. Papers were restricted to those that included measures of marketing exposure and alcohol consumption for at least 500 underage people. Multiple authors reviewed studies for inclusion and assessed their quality using the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Quality Assessment Tool for Observation Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Twelve studies (ranging in duration from 9 months to 8 years), following nine unique cohorts not reported on previously involving 35 219 participants from Europe, Asia and North America, met inclusion criteria. All 12 found evidence of a positive association between level of marketing exposure and level of youth alcohol consumption. Some found significant associations between youth exposure to alcohol marketing and initiation of alcohol use (odds ratios ranging from 1.00 to 1.69), and there were clear associations between exposure and subsequent binge or hazardous drinking (odds ratios ranging from 1.38 to 2.15). Mediators included marketing receptivity, brand recognition and alcohol expectancies. Levels of marketing exposure among younger adolescents were similar to those found among older adolescents and young adults. Young people who have greater exposure to alcohol marketing appear to be more likely subsequently to initiate alcohol use and engage in binge and hazardous drinking. © 2016 Society for the Study of

  16. Everyday, everywhere: alcohol marketing and social media--current trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, James

    2012-01-01

    To provide a snapshot content analysis of social media marketing among leading alcohol brands in the UK, and to outline the implications for both regulatory policies and further research. Using screengrab technology, the complete Facebook walls and Twitter timelines for 12 leading UK alcohol brands in November 2011 were captured and archived. A total of 701 brand-authored posts were identified and categorized using a thematic coding frame. Key strategic trends were identified and analysed in the light of contextual research into recent developments in marketing practice within the alcohol industry. A number of dominating trends were identified. These included the use of real-world tie-ins, interactive games, competitions and time-specific suggestions to drink. These methods reflect a strategy of branded conversation-stimulus which is favoured by social media marketing agencies. A number of distinct marketing methods are deployed by alcohol brands when using social media. These may undermine policies which seek to change social norms around drinking, especially the normalization of daily consumption. Social media marketing also raises questions regarding the efficacy of reactive regulatory frameworks. Further research into both the nature and impact of alcohol marketing on social media is needed.

  17. Alcohol marketing research: the need for a new agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra S

    2011-03-01

    This paper aims to contribute to a rethink of marketing research priorities to address policy makers' evidence needs in relation to alcohol marketing. Discussion paper reviewing evidence gaps identified during an appraisal of policy options to restrict alcohol marketing. Evidence requirements can be categorized as follows: (i) the size of marketing effects for the whole population and for policy-relevant population subgroups, (ii) the balance between immediate and long-term effects and the time lag, duration and cumulative build-up of effects and (iii) comparative effects of partial versus comprehensive marketing restrictions on consumption and harm. These knowledge gaps impede the appraisal and evaluation of existing and new interventions, because without understanding the size and timing of expected effects, researchers may choose inadequate time-frames, samples or sample sizes. To date, research has tended to rely on simplified models of marketing and has focused disproportionately on youth populations. The effects of cumulative exposure across multiple marketing channels, targeting of messages at certain population groups and indirect effects of advertising on consumption remain unclear. It is essential that studies into marketing effect sizes are geared towards informing policy decision-makers, anchored strongly in theory, use measures of effect that are well-justified and recognize fully the complexities of alcohol marketing efforts. © 2010 The Author, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  18. Who 'likes' alcohol? Young Australians' engagement with alcohol marketing via social media and related alcohol consumption patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrotte, Elise R; Dietze, Paul M; Wright, Cassandra J; Lim, Megan S

    2016-10-01

    To describe patterns of 'liking' alcohol marketing social media pages, and determine related alcohol consumption patterns among young Australians. Participants were 1,001 Australians aged 15-29 years who completed a cross-sectional online survey. Logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used. A quarter (249/1001, 24.9%) liked at least one of the alcohol marketing social media pages, most commonly brands of spirits, cider and alcohol retailers. Underage participants were as likely as older participants to report liking these pages. Alcohol marketing social media use was significantly and independently associated with male gender, living outside a major city, ever using illegal drugs and early age of first alcohol consumption (all pmarketing social media use (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8, p=marketing pages is common regardless of age, and associated with riskier alcohol consumption, among young Australians. There is a need to develop strategies to reduce the exposure to, and potential impact of, alcohol marketing social media pages on young Australians, and ensure these pages are neither accessible to nor targeting underage social media users. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

  19. Alcohol marketing in televised English professional football: a frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Andrew; Adams, Jean

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to explore the frequency of alcohol marketing (both formal commercials and otherwise) in televised top-class English professional football matches. A purposive sample of six broadcasts (total = 1101 min) of televised top-class English club football matches were identified and recorded in full. A customized coding framework was used to identify and categorize all verbal and visual alcohol references in non-commercial broadcasting. The number and the duration of all formal alcohol commercials were also noted. A mean of 111 visual references and 2 verbal references to alcohol per hour of broadcast were identified. Nearly all visual references were to beer products and were primarily simple logos or branding. The majority of verbal alcohol references were related to title-sponsorship of competitions. A total of 17 formal alcohol commercials were identified, accounting for sports sponsorship, as seen for tobacco, may be justified.

  20. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the ‘regulatory pyramid’, alcohol being less regulated than tobacco. PMID:28118411

  1. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

  2. North America markets for alcohol and alcohol-derived motor fuels and need for tax incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigwood, B.

    1991-01-01

    The U.S. fuel alcohol and ether industry has grown from its infancy in 1979 to approximately 2.9 billion gallons of production capacity in 1991. With the emphasis on clean air, the uncertainties in the Middle East, and fluctuating oil prices, IRI believes the demand for alcohol-derived motor fuels is poised to begin a second phase of expansion. Historically, the two primary alcohol-derived motor fuels sold in the U.S. have been methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol. There is also a limited but growing use of methanol as 85% blendstock for gasoline. Since 1978, fuel ethanol has provided the U.S. petroleum industry with an additional source of supply, octane, and profit. Its price was based on the price of wholesale gasoline plus available federal and state tax incentives. These incentives allowed ethanol, with production costs of $1.00 to $1.25 per gallon, to compete with gasoline at prices of 40 to 65 per gallon. Without the federal and state tax incentives, it would not be economically feasible to sell or manufacture fuel ethanol. On the other hand, the largest consumption of methanol has been as a feedstock for the production of MTBE, the world's fastest growing chemical over the past seven years. MTBE prices are based on the cost of raising the octane level of gasoline, and this commodity does not receive subsidies. Beginning in 1992, IRI predicts the price relationship between ethanol, MTBE, and gasoline will change as U.S. refiners and marketers are required to include oxygenated fuels (alcohol-derived) in their gasoline. In total, over 60 billion gallons of gasoline will need to be reformulated by the year 2000. The increased demand for oxygen will result in a 2.5-billion gallon deficit of MTBE and 1.2-billion gallon deficit of ethanol by the year 2000. 2 tabs

  3. An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2009-01-01

    The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has...... however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol...... have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect...

  4. Developmental prediction model for early alcohol initiation in Dutch adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geels, L.M.; Vink, J.M.; Beijsterveldt, C.E.M. van; Bartels, M.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Multiple factors predict early alcohol initiation in teenagers. Among these are genetic risk factors, childhood behavioral problems, life events, lifestyle, and family environment. We constructed a developmental prediction model for alcohol initiation below the Dutch legal drinking age

  5. Can neuroforecasting predict market behaviour?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Genevsky (Alex)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractFor generations, marketers have tried to get into the mind of the consumer. Now, using new brain imaging techniques, we’re tantalizingly close. The emerging science of neuroforecasting is still very young, but bit by bit, researchers are learning more about the connection between

  6. Can neuroforecasting predict market behaviour?

    OpenAIRE

    Genevsky, Alex

    2017-01-01

    textabstractFor generations, marketers have tried to get into the mind of the consumer. Now, using new brain imaging techniques, we’re tantalizingly close. The emerging science of neuroforecasting is still very young, but bit by bit, researchers are learning more about the connection between thinking – or more specifically, reacting – and doing.

  7. Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Schuster, Lisa; Drennan, Judy; Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Leo, Cheryl; Gullo, Matthew J; Connor, Jason P

    2015-10-01

    This study seeks to establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the GOKA program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2,114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral, and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking refusal self-efficacy of identified segments were subsequently examined. Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers, (2) Bingers, and (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post-participation were observed for Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting the application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments will extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Trade law and alcohol regulation: what role for a global Alcohol Marketing Code?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Andrew D; Casben, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Following calls for restrictions and bans on alcohol advertising, and in light of the tobacco industry's challenge to Australia's tobacco plain packaging measure, a tobacco control measure finding support in the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, this paper considers what role, if any, an international alcohol marketing code might have in preventing or reducing the risk of challenges to domestic alcohol marketing restrictions under trade rules. Narrative review of international trade and health instruments and international trade court judgements regarding alcohol products and marketing restrictions. The experience of European trade courts in the litigation of similar measures suggests that World Trade Organization rules have sufficient flexibility to support the implementation of alcohol marketing restrictions. However, the experience also highlights the possibility that public health measures have disproportionate and unjustifiable trade effects and that the ability of a public health measure to withstand a challenge under trade rules will turn on its particular design and implementation. Measures implemented pursuant to international public health instruments are not immune to trade law challenges. Close collaboration between health policymakers, trade officials and lawyers, from as early as the research stage in the development of a measure to ensure a robust evidence base, will ensure the best chance of regulatory survival for an international marketing code. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  9. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing : A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.M.; Mathijssen, J.J.P.; van Bon-Martens, M.J.H.; van Oers, J.A.M.; Garretsen, H.F.L.

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing

  10. Toward Predicting Popularity of Social Marketing Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi

    Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.

  11. Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate demand models...... a significant market share. We have the advantage of a relatively unique databank where respondents were submitted to the same stated choice experiment before and after experiencing an electric vehicle. Results show that typical choice models forecast a demand that is too restrictive in the long period...

  12. Habit doesn't make the predictions stronger: Implicit alcohol associations and habitualness predict drinking uniquely

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindgren, K.P.; Neighbors, C.; Teachman, B.A.; Gasser, M.L.; Kaysen, D.; Norris, J.; Wiers, R.W.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: As research on implicit (in the sense of fast/reflexive/impulsive) alcohol associations and alcohol advances, there is increasing emphasis on understanding the circumstances under which implicit alcohol associations predict drinking. In this study, we investigated habitualness of

  13. Habit predicts in-the-moment alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albery, Ian P; Collins, Isabelle; Moss, Antony C; Frings, Daniel; Spada, Marcantonio M

    2015-02-01

    The objective of this study was to examine whether habit predicts in-the-moment behavioural intention (amount of alcohol poured) and behavioural enactment (amount and proportion of alcohol consumed) controlling for craving and positive alcohol expectancies. Forty-six college students, who defined themselves as social drinkers, were tested individually in a laboratory setting. After completing a measure of craving they were given a bottle of non-alcoholic beer and a cup, asked to pour a drink, and then drink as much as they liked. They were not informed that the beer was non-alcoholic. They were subsequently asked to complete measures of alcohol use and misuse, positive alcohol expectancies and habit. Positive alcohol expectancies were positively and significantly associated with the amount of alcohol poured and the amount and proportion of alcohol consumed. Habit was positively and significantly associated with the amount and proportion of alcohol consumed but not with the amount of alcohol poured. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that only habit was a significant predictor of both the amount and proportion of alcohol consumed. Even though measures of intention (amount of alcohol poured) and behaviour (amount and proportion of alcohol consumed) were positively correlated, habit was shown to effectively discriminate between these measures. These findings suggest that habit predicts in-the-moment behavioural enactment in terms of the amount and proportion of alcohol consumed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Children's exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets: An objective analysis using GPS technology and wearable cameras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, T; Pearson, A L; Stanley, J; Smith, M; Barr, M; Ni Mhurchu, C; Signal, L

    2017-07-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing within alcohol retailers has been associated with higher rates of childhood drinking, brand recognition, and marketing recall. This study aimed to objectively measure children's everyday exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets. Children aged 11-13 (n = 167) each wore a wearable camera and GPS device for four consecutive days. Micro-spatial analyses were used to examine exposures within supermarkets. In alcohol retailing supermarkets (n = 30), children encountered alcohol marketing on 85% of their visits (n = 78). Alcohol marketing was frequently near everyday goods (bread and milk) or entrance/exit. Alcohol sales in supermarkets should be banned in order to protect children from alcohol marketing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Paternal alcoholism predicts the occurrence but not the remission of alcoholic drinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, J; Penick, E C; Nickel, E J

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the effects of father's alcoholism on the development and remission from alcoholic drinking by age 40. METHOD: Subjects were selected from a Danish birth cohort that included 223 sons of alcoholic fathers (high risk; HR) and 106 matched controls (low risk; LR). Clinical...... examinations were performed at age 40 (n = 202) by a psychiatrist using structured interviews and DSM-III-R diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: HR subjects were significantly more likely than LR subjects to develop alcohol dependence (31% vs. 16%), but not alcohol abuse (17% vs. 15%). More subjects with alcohol...... abuse were in remission at age 40 than subjects with alcohol dependence. Risk did not predict remission from either alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence. CONCLUSION: Familial influences may play a stronger role in the development of alcoholism than in the remission or recovery from alcoholism....

  16. Predictability of Wave Energy and Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez

    2012-01-01

    The articlw addresses an important challenge ahead the integration of the electricity generated by wave energy conversion technologies into the electric grid. Particularly, it looks into the role of wave energy within the day-ahead electricity market. For that the predictability of the theoretical...

  17. Position of Serbia on the international market of alcoholic beverages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorović Milutin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparative analysis of the major indicators of both the world and domestic markets of alcoholic beverages. Namely, for the last 21 years, for the observed subperiods, the method of comparative analysis were used to study quantitative and structural differences in the production and trade of analyzed product groups, at both the world and at the level of continents and some countries. The leading manufacturers and flows of international trade and the leading exporters and importers of wine, beer and distilled alcoholic beverages were defined, with special emphasis on the importance of Serbia, i.e. its position in the global market for all these products. Pursuant to the above, and importance of analyzed product groups for the domestic market, i.e. agroindustry and the economy as a whole, this paper specially studies balances, structure, dynamics and regional orientation of foreign trade exchange in wine, beer, and distilled alcoholic beverages. In addition, the paper points to the needs, capabilities, measures and directions of further development of domestic production and export of products analyzed.

  18. Stock market prediction using technical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradić-Martinović Aleksandra

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis (TA is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators. It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

  19. Vulnerability to alcohol-related problems: a policy brief with implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Noel, Jonathan K; Ritson, E Bruce

    2017-01-01

    The concern that alcohol advertising can have detrimental effects on vulnerable viewers has prompted the development of codes of responsible advertising practices. This paper evaluates critically the concept of vulnerability as it applies to (1) susceptibility to alcohol-related harm and (2) susceptibility to the effects of marketing, and describes its implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing. We describe the findings of key published studies, review papers and expert reports to determine whether these two types of vulnerability apply to population groups defined by (1) age and developmental history; (2) personality characteristics; (3) family history of alcoholism; (4) female sex and pregnancy risk; and (5) history of alcohol dependence and recovery status. Developmental theory and research suggest that groups defined by younger age, incomplete neurocognitive development and a history of alcohol dependence may be particularly vulnerable because of the disproportionate harm they experience from alcohol and their increased susceptibility to alcohol marketing. Children may be more susceptible to media imagery because they do not have the ability to compensate for biases in advertising portrayals and glamorized media imagery. Young people and people with a history of alcohol dependence appear to be especially vulnerable to alcohol marketing, warranting the development of new content and exposure guidelines focused on protecting those groups to improve current self-regulation codes promoted by the alcohol industry. If adequate protections cannot be implemented through this mechanism, statutory regulations should be considered. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Alcohol use and the labor market in Uruguay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balsa, Ana I; French, Michael T

    2010-07-01

    This paper is one of only a few studies to examine potential labor market consequences of heavy or abusive drinking in Latin America and the first to focus on Uruguay. We analyzed data from a Uruguayan household survey conducted in 2006 using propensity score matching methods and controlling for a number of socio-demographic, family, regional, behavioral health, and labor market characteristics. As expected, we found a positive association between heavy drinking and absenteeism, particularly for female employees. Counter to the findings for developed countries, our results revealed a positive relationship between heavy drinking and labor force participation or employment. This result was mostly driven by men and weakened when considering more severe measures of abusive drinking. Possible explanations for these findings are that employment leads to greater alcohol use through an income effect, that the Uruguayan labor market rewards heavy drinking, or that labor market characteristics typical of less developed countries, such as elevated safety risks or job instability, lead to problem drinking. Future research with panel data should explore these possible mechanisms. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Developmental differences in childhood motor coordination predict adult alcohol dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzardo, Ann M; Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim

    2005-01-01

    hypothesized that developmental deficits in the cerebellar vermis may also play a role in the initiation of adult alcohol dependence. The present study evaluated whether measures of motor development in the first year of life predict alcohol dependence three decades later. METHODS: A total of 241 subjects....... RESULTS: Several measures of childhood motor development significantly predicted alcohol dependence at 30 years of age. These included deficits in muscle tone 5 days after birth, delays in the age to sitting, and delays in the age to walking. CONCLUSIONS: Relationships found between adult alcoholism...

  2. Peer, social media, and alcohol marketing influences on college student drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberson, Angela A; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

    2018-02-06

    To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as well as moderation by gender and race. Drinking behavior was directly related to perceived norms and attitudes toward alcohol that develop, in part, from direct and indirect interactions with their online and offline peers, as well as engagement with alcohol-related content on social media. Gender and ethnicity moderated some effects. College student drinking is influenced by friends' alcohol-related content posted on social networking sites and by greater engagement with traditional and online alcohol marketing. College campus alcohol misuse interventions should include components to counter peer influences and alcohol marketing on social media.

  3. Do premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence also predict the failure to recover from alcoholism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim; Nickel, Elizabeth J

    2010-01-01

    diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifiers. RESULTS: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were...... in remission at age 40 compared with those with a diagnosis of alcohol dependence (88% vs. 58%). Treatment did not predict remission. Fourteen of the 18 predictors of remission that also predicted dependence were submitted to an exploratory factor analysis (varimax). Two premorbid dimensions were identified...

  4. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Meriam M; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; van Bon-Martens, Marja J H; van Oers, Hans A M; Garretsen, Henk F L

    2013-06-01

    Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour could not be assessed. More

  5. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicia Alvarez-Aguirre

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents.METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used.RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year.CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

  6. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

  7. Measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing on social networking sites: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E

    2014-02-01

    Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices.

  8. Developmental relations between alcohol expectancies and social norms in predicting alcohol onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Tim; Treloar Padovano, Hayley; Merrill, Jennifer E; Jackson, Kristina M

    2018-02-01

    Expectations about alcohol's effects and perceptions of peers' behaviors and beliefs related to alcohol use are each shown to strongly influence the timing of drinking onset during adolescence. The present study builds on prior work by examining the conjoint effects of within-person changes in these social-cognitive factors on age of adolescent drinking onset. We related youths' alcohol status (i.e., alcohol-naive, initiation during study, prior initiation) to increases in positive and negative alcohol outcome expectancies (AOEs), as well as increases in perceived peer/close friend alcohol use and acceptance, during adolescence. We also investigated whether changes in AOEs and perceived social norms prospectively predicted alcohol onset in alcohol-naïve adolescents. Participants were 1,023 adolescents aged 12.2 years on average at enrollment (SD = 0.98), 52% female, participating in an ongoing longitudinal survey on substance use and health behaviors. Positive AOEs, close friends' norms, and same-age peer norms increased linearly, whereas negative AOEs decreased linearly. Changes were attenuated for participants who remained alcohol-naïve and increased for participants who experienced initiation during the study. Furthermore, we found associations between individual changes in AOEs and perceived social norms. Finally, survival models revealed that onset of alcohol use was prospectively predicted by stronger initial positive AOEs, as well as increases in close friends' norms and decreases in negative AOEs over time. These findings emphasize codevelopment of AOEs and perceived social norms, coinciding with, and predictive of, onset of alcohol use, and point toward a unique role for within-individual changes in identifying youth at risk for early onset of alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Current status of alcohol marketing policy--an urgent challenge for global governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally

    2012-03-01

    To review research literature and available information on the extent and impacts of marketing, current policy response and the interests engaged in the policy debate in order to inform recommendations for policy change on alcohol marketing. Relevant literature, including systematic reviews and publicly available information (websites and participant observation) is reviewed and synthesized. Alcohol marketing has expanded markedly in the past 50 years and, while there remains uncertainty about the impact across the population, there is now clear evidence of its impact on the consumption of young people. Few countries have effective policy in place restricting alcohol marketing, and there is a lack of an international response to alcohol marketing which crosses national boundaries. The protection of alcohol marketing has been a major focus for vested interest groups and this has affected governmental response at national and international levels. There has been a lack of non-governmental organization engagement. The policy response to tobacco marketing provides a clear contrast to that of alcohol marketing policy and provides a model for alcohol marketing policy. The global exposure of young people to alcohol marketing requires an urgent policy response. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate model for global governance to control alcohol marketing. There are extant examples of national level legislation achieving comprehensive bans with France's Loi Evin providing a feasible model. Resources from philanthropic organizations to allow non-governmental organization engagement are urgently required, as is engagement by the governmental sector independent of commercial influence. © 2012 The Author, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, Richard I; Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-06-29

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect "alibi marketing". To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people.

  11. Habit doesn't make the predictions stronger: implicit alcohol associations and habitualness predict drinking uniquely.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindgren, Kristen P; Neighbors, Clayton; Teachman, Bethany A; Gasser, Melissa L; Kaysen, Debra; Norris, Jeanette; Wiers, Reinout W

    2015-06-01

    As research on implicit (in the sense of fast/reflexive/impulsive) alcohol associations and alcohol advances, there is increasing emphasis on understanding the circumstances under which implicit alcohol associations predict drinking. In this study, we investigated habitualness of drinking (i.e., the extent to which drinking is automatic or occurs without thinking) as a moderator of the relations between several measures of implicit alcohol associations and key drinking outcomes. A sample of 506 participants (57% female) completed web-based measures of implicit alcohol associations (drinking identity, alcohol approach, and alcohol excitement), along with indicators of habitualness, and typical alcohol consumption, alcohol problems, and risk of alcohol use disorders. As expected, implicit alcohol associations, especially drinking identity, were positively associated with, and predicted unique variance in, drinking outcomes. Further, habitualness emerged as a consistent, positive predictor of drinking outcomes. Contrary to expectations, habitualness rarely moderated the relation between implicit alcohol associations and drinking outcomes. Although moderation was rarely observed, findings indicated that even mild levels of habitualness are risky. Findings also continue to support implicit alcohol associations, particularly drinking identity, as a risk factor for hazardous drinking. Collectively, this suggests the importance of targeting both in prevention and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing: a systematic review of content and exposure research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    With governments relying increasingly upon the alcohol industry's self-regulated marketing codes to restrict alcohol marketing activity, there is a need to summarize the findings of research relevant to alcohol marketing controls. This paper provides a systematic review of studies investigating the content of, and exposure to, alcohol marketing in relation to self-regulated guidelines. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: SCOPUS, Web of Science, PubMed and PsychINFO. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations and government research centers were also identified. Ninety-six publications met the inclusion criteria. Of the 19 studies evaluating a specific marketing code and 25 content analysis studies reviewed, all detected content that could be considered potentially harmful to children and adolescents, including themes that appeal strongly to young men. Of the 57 studies of alcohol advertising exposure, high levels of youth exposure and high awareness of alcohol advertising were found for television, radio, print, digital and outdoor advertisements. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising has increased over time, even as greater compliance with exposure thresholds has been documented. Violations of the content guidelines within self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are highly prevalent in certain media. Exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly among youth, is also prevalent. Taken together, the findings suggest that the current self-regulatory systems that govern alcohol marketing practices are not meeting their intended goal of protecting vulnerable populations. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  13. Reinforcement of smoking and drinking: tobacco marketing strategies linked with alcohol in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan; Ling, Pamela M

    2011-10-01

    We investigated tobacco companies' knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Tobacco companies' numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use.

  14. Reinforcement of Smoking and Drinking: Tobacco Marketing Strategies Linked With Alcohol in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637

  15. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  16. Validity of Integrity Tests for Predicting Drug and Alcohol Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-08-31

    drug and alcohol abuse in the workplace is probably about .30. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES94 Drug Abuse , Alcohol...8217Rev 2 89’ toyAS’I 0 13 zoo Integrity and Substance A-buseý Va-idity of Integrity Tests for Predicting Drug and %Lcohol Abuse Frank L. Schmidt...nflegri’ty and S, c ,s EXECUTIVE SUMMARY STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM: Drug and alcohol abuse is a major problem in the workplace . In this report,

  17. Simultaneous alcohol and cannabis expectancies predict simultaneous use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earleywine Mitch

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicts increased negative consequences for users beyond individual or even concurrent use of the two drugs. Given the widespread use of the drugs and common simultaneous consumption, problems unique to simultaneous use may bear important implications for many substance users. Cognitive expectancies offer a template for future drug use behavior based on previous drug experiences, accurately predicting future use and problems. Studies reveal similar mechanisms underlying both alcohol and cannabis expectancies, but little research examines simultaneous expectancies for alcohol and cannabis use. Whereas research has demonstrated unique outcomes associated with simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use, this study hypothesized that unique cognitive expectancies may underlie simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use. Results: This study examined a sample of 2600 (66% male; 34% female Internet survey respondents solicited through advertisements with online cannabis-related organizations. The study employed known measures of drug use and expectancies, as well as a new measure of simultaneous drug use expectancies. Expectancies for simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicted simultaneous use over and above expectancies for each drug individually. Discussion Simultaneous expectancies may provide meaningful information not available with individual drug expectancies. These findings bear potential implications on the assessment and treatment of substance abuse problems, as well as researcher conceptualizations of drug expectancies. Policies directing the treatment of substance abuse and its funding ought to give unique consideration to simultaneous drug use and its cognitive underlying factors.

  18. When evidence is not enough: a case study on alcohol marketing legislation in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vendrame, Alan

    2017-01-01

    This case study identifies the influence and mechanisms that the alcohol industry in Brazil has been able to bring to bear to maintain self-regulation in the marketing of beer and many wines set against a trend of increasing alcohol consumption in Brazil, particularly among young people and women. It identifies the forms of power and strategies used by the alcohol industry in Brazil that may be useful for other countries to consider in seeking to move from self-regulation to state regulation of alcohol marketing. A review was conducted of recent legal documents and court cases, as well as the activities of alcoholic beverage industries. Because of an exemption, Brazilian law had established that both beer and many wines are not alcoholic beverages for marketing purposes. These beverages are subjected to industry self-regulation codes. Research shows that beer and wine marketing often violates industry codes, with little or no enforcement of penalties for non-compliance. Attempts to include beer and wine in the legal definition of alcohol have been opposed by the alcohol industry, and the courts have delegated responsibility to the legislature. The recent legal activities surrounding alcohol sales during the 2014 World Cup games in Brazil provide evidence of the alcohol industry's influence on the legislative process. The alcohol industry in Brazil plays a significant role in the formulation of public policies on alcohol, especially regarding the regulation of marketing. This power is exercised by strong lobbying of government officials responsible for public policies. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  19. Alcohol Prevention on College Campuses: The Moderating Effect of the Alcohol Environment on the Effectiveness of Social Norms Marketing Campaigns*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard A.; Theall, Katherine P.; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Method: Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N = 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. Results: There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets. PMID:21388596

  20. Alcohol prevention on college campuses: the moderating effect of the alcohol environment on the effectiveness of social norms marketing campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard A; Theall, Katherine P; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-03-01

    Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N= 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets.

  1. Alcohol marketing in the 21st century: new methods, old problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mart, Sarah M

    2011-01-01

    Marketing and advertising for alcoholic beverages is abundant throughout the United States and the rest of the world. Despite the fact that alcohol advertising is related to earlier initiation of drinking, higher rates of consumption, and positive expectancies among youth populations, alcohol companies continue to design new products and related campaigns with youth-friendly attributes. Alcopops and caffeinated alcoholic beverages are two particularly dangerous types of products, and new social networking technologies make direct promotion easy and voluminous. In order to stop the harm from these alcohol products and promotion, advocacy from the research community is imperative. Copyright © 2011 Informa Healthcare USA, Inc.

  2. Red flags on pinkwashed drinks: contradictions and dangers in marketing alcohol to prevent cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mart, Sarah; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2015-10-01

    To document alcohol products and promotions that use the pink ribbon symbol and related marketing materials that associate alcohol brands with breast cancer charities, awareness and survivors. We conducted a basic Boolean public internet search for alcohol products with pink ribbon/breast cancer awareness marketing campaigns. There is strong and growing evidence of alcohol as a contributing cause of several types of cancer, including breast cancer. There is no U-shaped curve for cancer, and threshold of elevated relative risk is as low as one drink a day for certain cancers. We found 17 examples of alcohol product campaigns with websites, press releases and social media posts, along with news articles and blog posts from industry and non-profit organizations regarding alcohol products associated with breast cancer causes and charities. Various cancer charities have entered into alliances with sectors of the alcohol industry that raise funds for breast cancer research, treatment or prevention by promoting the purchase of certain alcoholic beverages. Some alcohol corporations use pink ribbons and other breast cancer-related images, messages and user-generated media to market a product that contributes to cancer disease and death. Therefore, cancer charities should adopt policies to separate them from alliances with the alcohol industry. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  3. The commercial use of digital media to market alcohol products: a narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobstein, Tim; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    The rising use of digital media in the last decade, including social networking media and downloadable applications, has created new opportunities for marketing a wide range of goods and services, including alcohol products. This paper aims to review the evidence in order to answer a series of policy-relevant questions: does alcohol marketing through digital media influence drinking behaviour or increases consumption; what methods of promotional marketing are used, and to what extent; and what is the evidence of marketing code violations and especially of marketing to children? A search of scientific, medical and social journals and authoritative grey literature identified 47 relevant papers (including 14 grey literature documents). The evidence indicated (i) that exposure to marketing through digital media was associated with higher levels of drinking behaviour; (ii) that the marketing activities make use of materials and approaches that are attractive to young people and encourage interactive engagement with branded messaging; and (iii) there is evidence that current alcohol marketing codes are being undermined by alcohol producers using digital media. There is evidence to support public health interventions to restrict the commercial promotion of alcohol in digital media, especially measures to protect children and youth. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. Alcohol Marketing, Drunkenness, and Problem Drinking among Zambian Youth: Findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Swahn, Monica H.; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B.; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age ( = 2 2 5 7 ). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcoh...

  5. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

  6. Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A.; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F.; Stamates, Amy L.; O’Connor, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use. PMID:28138317

  7. Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marczinski, Cecile A; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F; Stamates, Amy L; O'Connor, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students ( N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use.

  8. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  9. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

  10. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  11. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  12. Examining How Media Literacy and Personality Factors Predict Skepticism Toward Alcohol Advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W

    2016-05-01

    To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages.

  13. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and regulations of Rosstandart. Results basing on a sampling of certificates for products directly from retail outlets analysis of the state alcohol and tobacco consumer market of Tatarstan was carried out. Improper filling of the form of the certificate for products was identified violating all existing norms and laws which are strictly prescribed in technical regulations. On the basis of these violations the validity of certificates for products was assessed and the conclusion was made about the products quality. The share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the total sales in the consumer market was assessed. The shortcomings of the inspection authorities to detect counterfeit products were identified. Scientific novelty the consumer market was researched basing on the method of sampling using probability theory and mathematical statistics to estimate the share of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan. The error sampling for counterfeit products in the consumer market was defined. Practical significance the obtained results will allow the inspection authorities to better and more accurately identify counterfeit goods and to restrict the access of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer market of Tatarstan. It is necessary to strengthen the role of state regulation of commercial activities in the consumer market of Russia to stop the flow of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco products to the consumer

  14. Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

    2008-09-01

    Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.

  15. Context Effects of Alcohol Availability at Home: Implicit Alcohol Associations and the Prediction of Adolescents' Drinking Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Koning, Ina; Monshouwer, Karin; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Wiers, Reinout W

    2016-09-01

    Recent studies suggest that the predictive effect of implicit alcohol associations is context dependent. Findings indicate that implicit associations are more easily retrieved in an alcohol-associated setting or context (e.g., bar) compared with a neutral setting. In line with this reasoning, we hypothesized that alcohol availability at home might moderate the relationship between implicit alcohol associations and future drinking behavior of adolescents. Participants were 262 at-risk adolescents (235 boys, 27 girls, adolescents with externalizing behavioral problems) with a mean age of 14.11 years (SD = 0.86, age range: 12-16 years) at baseline. Adolescents completed a questionnaire and a modified version of the Implicit Association Test (i.e., Single Category Implicit Association Test; SC-IAT). Stronger implicit alcohol associations predicted increase in frequency of alcohol use, only in adolescents who indicated that alcohol was available at home. No moderating effects were found for increase in quantity of alcohol use and problematic alcohol use, suggesting that implicit alcohol associations particularly influence the decision of whether to drink in adolescence. The findings illustrate that the availability of alcohol in the home setting influences adolescents' implicit alcohol associations and consequently affects the frequency of alcohol use. In this way, alcohol availability at home may be an important contextual factor to consider when examining the effect of implicit alcohol associations on the future drinking behavior of adolescents.

  16. An intense Nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...

  17. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savell, Emily; Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-01-01

    To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second-reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self-regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non-regulatory initiatives. The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of

  18. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765

  19. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect “alibi marketing”. To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people. PMID:28661462

  20. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-12-15

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

  1. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

  2. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

    2017-01-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

  3. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  4. The unique contribution of attitudes toward non-alcoholic drinks to the prediction of adolescents' and young adults' alcohol consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roek, M.A.E.; Spijkerman, R.; Poelen, E.A.P.; Lemmers, A.C.J.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Attitudes toward alternative behaviors, such as drinking soda instead of alcohol, might contribute to the prediction of young people's drinking behavior. The current study explored the associations between late adolescents' and young adults' attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks and

  5. The unique contribution of attitudes toward non-alcoholic drinks to the prediction of adolescents' and young adults' alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roek, Marion A E; Spijkerman, Renske; Poelen, Evelien A P; Lemmers, Lex; Engels, Rutger C M E

    2010-06-01

    Attitudes toward alternative behaviors, such as drinking soda instead of alcohol, might contribute to the prediction of young people's drinking behavior. The current study explored the associations between late adolescents' and young adults' attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks and their alcohol consumption, and whether these associations were moderated by participants' sex, age and education level. Cross-sectional data were collected among 1012 15 to 25-year-olds. Participants completed an online questionnaire on attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, binge drinking and monthly alcohol consumption. Data were analyzed by employing structural equation modeling in Mplus. After controlling for the shared variance in both attitudes, attitudes toward alcoholic drinks were positively related and attitudes toward non-alcoholic drinks were negatively related to participants' monthly alcohol use and binge drinking. Relations between attitudes towards alcoholic drinks and monthly alcohol consumption were stronger for boys than for girls and stronger for participants with intermediate education background. Relations between both attitudes and binge drinking were strongest for high educated participants. According to our data, non-alcohol attitudes provide a unique contribution to the prediction of alcohol use. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

  7. Alcohol marketing in Africa: not an ordinary business | Obot | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Drug and Alcohol Studies. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 12, No 1 (2013) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  8. Marketing alcohol to young people: implications for industry regulation and research policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M

    2000-12-01

    This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring.

  9. Alcohol marketing in the Americas and Spain during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Feulner, Melissa; Vendrame, Alan; Monteiro, Maristela

    2017-01-01

    To identify the nature of visual alcohol references in alcohol advertisements during televised broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament matches and to evaluate cross-national differences according to alcohol marketing policy restrictiveness. Content analysis using the Delphi method and identification of in-game sponsorships. Television broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Mexico, Spain and the United States. Eighty-seven alcohol advertisements; 20 matches. Quantitative rating scales, combined with the Delphi rating technique, were used to determine compliance of the alcohol advertisements with the International Alliance for Responsible Drinking's (IARD) Guiding Principles. Recordings of five matches from four countries were also used to identify the number of in- and out-of-game alcohol brand appearances. A total of 86.2% of all unique alcohol advertisements contained at least one violation of IARD's Guiding Principles, with violation rates ranging from 72.7% (Mexico) to 100% (Brazil). Countries with the least restrictive marketing policies had a higher prevalence of violations in guidelines designed to protect minors. There were 2.76 in-game alcohol brand appearances and 0.83 out-of-game alcohol brand appearances per minute. Brand appearances did not differ across countries or according to a country's marketing policy restrictiveness. Self-regulation and statutory policies were ineffective at limiting alcohol advertising during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament television broadcasts. Most advertisements contained content that violated the self-regulation codes, and there were high levels of within-broadcast brand appearances. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colell, Esther; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

    2014-11-01

    Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development Study covering ages 33-50 (N=9960), we used multilevel growth models to study the association between labour market categories and longitudinal changes in weekly units of alcohol consumed. In the reference group of full-time employed men alcohol trajectory decreased over the follow-up period (β=-0.14; 95% CI -0.18 to -0.11) while in the reference group of employed women it increased (β=0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.08). Men and women who were 'mainly sick' had significantly steeper declines in their alcohol consumption trajectory. Women who became employed after being homemakers had the steepest increase in alcohol use (β=0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Being employed is a strong determinant of alcohol use for men and women in midlife, making the workplace a good target for health promotion programmes and policies aimed at reducing alcohol use. Caution is needed when interpreting the health effects of alcohol consumption as low alcohol users may have previously been heavy drinkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  11. Stock market price prediction using artificial neural network: an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper looks at the application of the artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting stock market prices in Kenya. In particular the paper looks at the application of ANN in predicting future Equity Bank share prices using historical data. We have assumed that only previous prices affect future prices, then fitted ARIMA ...

  12. Alcohol-related incident guardianship and undergraduate college parties: enhancing the social norms marketing approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbertson, Troy A

    2006-01-01

    This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking differentiated by sex, athletic status, and location of the drinking event. The sex and athletic status variables produce statistically effects on the dependent variables, while location of the drinking event is not significant. The article concludes by discussing the importance of context as it pertains to the social norms marketing strategy utilized in much college alcohol programming, and suggests a more directed marketing approach.

  13. Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahbazi Nima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.

  14. One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

  15. Internet filters and entry pages do not protect children from online alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Thom, Jeffrey A; Davoren, Sondra; Barrie, Lance

    2014-02-01

    We review programs and policies to prevent children from accessing alcohol marketing online. To update the literature, we present our recent studies that assess (i) in-built barriers to underage access to alcohol brand websites and (ii) commercial internet filters. Alcohol websites typically had poor filter systems for preventing entry of underage persons; only half of the sites required the user to provide a date of birth, and none had any means of preventing users from trying again. Even the most effective commercial internet filters allowed access to one-third of the sites we examined.

  16. Alcohol marketing and young people's drinking: a review of the research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross

    2005-09-01

    The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking.

  17. Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    We analyze a binary prediction market in which traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and private information. Realistically, we assume that traders are allowed to invest a limited amount of money (or have decreasing absolute risk aversion). We show that the rational expectations equilibrium...... price underreacts to information. When favorable information to an event is available and is revealed by the market, the price increases and this forces optimists to reduce the number of assets they can (or want to) buy. For the market to equilibrate, the price must increase less than a posterior belief...

  18. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use From Preferential Music Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (pmusic (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Underage access to online alcohol marketing content: a YouTube case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Johnson, Emily; Rabre, Alexander; Darville, Gabrielle; Donovan, Kristin M; Efunbumi, Orisatalabi

    2015-01-01

    With the proliferation of the Internet and online social media use, alcohol advertisers are now marketing their products through social media sites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. As a result, new recommendations have been made by the Federal Trade Commission concerning the self-regulation of digital marketing strategies, including content management on social and digital media sites. The current study sought to determine whether alcohol companies were implementing the self-imposed mandates that they have developed for online marketing. Specifically, we examined whether alcohol companies were implementing effective strategies that would prevent persons under the minimum legal drinking age in the USA from accessing their content on YouTube. We assessed 16 alcohol brands (beer and liquor) associated with the highest prevalence of past 30 day underage alcohol consumption in the USA. Fictitious YouTube user profiles were created and assigned the ages of 14, 17 and 19. These profiles then attempted to access and view the brewer-sponsored YouTube channels for each of the 16 selected brands. Every underage profile, regardless of age, was able to successfully subscribe to each of the 16 (100%) official YouTube channels. On average, two-thirds of the brands' channels were successfully viewed (66.67%). Alcohol industry provided online marketing content is predominantly accessible to underage adolescents. Thus, brewers are not following some of the self-developed and self-imposed mandates for online advertising by failing to implement effective age-restriction measures (i.e. age gates). © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  20. Alcohol marketing, drunkenness, and problem drinking among Zambian youth: findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  1. Alcohol Marketing, Drunkenness, and Problem Drinking among Zambian Youth: Findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica H. Swahn

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS conducted in Zambia (2004 of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (=2257. Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09–2.02 and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06–1.87 among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  2. Alcohol Marketing on Twitter and Instagram: Evidence of Directly Advertising to Youth/Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Bates, Austin M; Olusanya, Olufunto; Vinal, Cystal E; Martin, Emily; Peoples, Janiene E; Jackson, Zachary A; Billinger, Shanaisa A; Yusuf, Aishatu; Cauley, Daunte A; Montano, Javier R

    2016-07-01

    Assess whether alcohol companies restrict youth/adolescent access, interaction, and exposure to their marketing on Twitter and Instagram. Employed five fictitious male and female Twitter (n = 10) and Instagram (n = 10) user profiles aged 13, 15, 17, 19 and/or 21. Using cellular smartphones, we determined whether profiles could (a) interact with advertising content-e.g. retweet, view video or picture content, comment, share URL; and/or (b) follow and directly receive advertising material updates from the official Instagram and Twitter pages of 22 alcohol brands for 30 days. All user profiles could fully access, view, and interact with alcohol industry content posted on Instagram and Twitter. Twitter's age-gate, which restricts access for those under 21, successfully prevented underage profiles from following and subsequently receiving promotional material/updates. The two 21+ profiles collectively received 1836 alcohol-related tweets within 30 days. All Instagram profiles, however, were able to follow all alcohol brand pages and received an average of 362 advertisements within 30 days. The quantity of promotional updates increased throughout the week, reaching their peak on Thursday and Friday. Representatives/controllers of alcohol brand Instagram pages would respond directly to our underage user's comments. The alcohol industry is in violation of their proposed self-regulation guidelines for digital marketing communications on Instagram. While Twitter's age-gate effectively blocked direct to phone updates, unhindered access to post was possible. Everyday our fictitious profiles, even those as young as 13, were bombarded with alcohol industry messages and promotional material directly to their smartphones. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  3. Marketing and alcohol-related traffic fatalities: impact of alcohol advertising targeting minors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ryan C; Geller, E Scott

    2009-10-01

    Alcohol-related youth traffic fatalities continue as a major public-health concern. While state and federal laws can be useful in tackling this problem, the efficacy of many laws has not been empirically demonstrated. We examined the impact of state laws prohibiting alcohol advertising to target minors. Using statistics obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), youth alcohol-related, single-vehicle, driver traffic fatalities were compared by state as a function of whether the state has a law prohibiting alcohol advertising that targets minors. Overall, states possessing this law experienced 32.9% fewer of the above specified traffic fatalities. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that not only are youth drinking rates affected by alcohol advertisements targeting youth, but also drink-driving behaviors. Indeed, we estimate that if this type of legislation were adopted in the 26 states that do not prohibit targeting of minors with alcohol advertising, then 400 youth lives could be saved annually.

  4. Do Culture-based Segments Predict Selection of Market Strategy?

    OpenAIRE

    Veronika Jadczaková

    2015-01-01

    Academists and practitioners have already acknowledged the importance of unobservable segmentation bases (such as psychographics) yet still focusing on how well these bases are capable of describing relevant segments (the identifiability criterion) rather than on how precisely these segments can predict (the predictability criterion). Therefore, this paper intends to add a debate to this topic by exploring whether culture-based segments do account for a selection of market strategy. To do so,...

  5. Exposure to Online Alcohol Marketing and Adolescents' Drinking: A Cross-sectional Study in Four European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-09-01

    The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in four European countries. A total of 9038 students with a mean age of 14.05 (SD 0.82) participated in a school-based survey in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Logistic regression analyses of cross-sectional cross-country survey data were undertaken. Exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising and ownership of alcohol-branded items was estimated to be controlled for relevant confounders. Onset of drinking and binge drinking in the past 30 days were included in the study as outcome variables. Adjusted for relevant confounders, higher exposure to (online) alcohol marketing exposure was found to be related to the odds of starting to drink (p online alcohol marketing was found to interact more strongly with drinking outcomes than passive exposure to online alcohol marketing. Youngsters in the four European countries report frequent exposure to online alcohol marketing. The association between this exposure and adolescents' drinking was robust and seems consistent across national contexts. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  6. Context effects of alcohol availability at home: Implicit alcohol associations and the prediction of adolescents' drinking behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Peeters, M.; Koning, H.M.; Monshouwer, K.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.; Wiers, Reinout W

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Recent studies suggest that the predictive effect of implicit alcohol associations is context dependent. Findings indicate that implicit associations are more easily retrieved in an alcoholassociated setting or context (e.g., bar) compared with a neutral setting. In line with this reasoning, we hypothesized that alcohol availability at home might moderate the relationship between implicit alcohol associations and future drinking behavior of adolescents. Method: Participants were 26...

  7. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing

  8. Alcohol operant self-administration: Investigating how alcohol-seeking behaviors predict drinking in mice using two operant approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blegen, Mariah B; da Silva E Silva, Daniel; Bock, Roland; Morisot, Nadege; Ron, Dorit; Alvarez, Veronica A

    2018-03-01

    Alcohol operant self-administration paradigms are critical tools for studying the neural circuits implicated in both alcohol-seeking and consummatory behaviors and for understanding the neural basis underlying alcohol-use disorders. In this study, we investigate the predictive value of two operant models of oral alcohol self-administration in mice, one in which alcohol is delivered into a cup following nose-poke responses with no accurate measurement of consumed alcohol solution, and another paradigm that provides access to alcohol via a sipper tube following lever presses and where lick rate and consumed alcohol volume can be measured. The goal was to identify a paradigm where operant behaviors such as lever presses and nose pokes, as well as other tracked behavior such as licks and head entries, can be used to reliably predict blood alcohol concentration (BAC). All mice were first exposed to alcohol in the home cage using the "drinking in the dark" (DID) procedure for 3 weeks and then were trained in alcohol self-administration using either of the operant paradigms for several weeks. Even without sucrose fading or food pre-training, mice acquired alcohol self-administration with both paradigms. However, neither lever press nor nose-poke rates were good predictors of alcohol intake or BAC. Only the lick rate and consumed alcohol were consistently and significantly correlated with BAC. Using this paradigm that accurately measures alcohol intake, unsupervised cluster analysis revealed three groups of mice: high-drinking (43%), low-drinking (37%), and non-drinking mice (20%). High-drinking mice showed faster acquisition of operant responding and achieved higher BACs than low-drinking mice. Lick rate and volume consumed varied with the alcohol concentration made available only for high- and low-drinking mice, but not for non-drinking mice. In addition, high- and low-drinking mice showed similar patterns during extinction and significant cue-induced reinstatement of

  9. Can We Envision a Bettor's Guide to Climate Prediction Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trexler, M.

    2017-12-01

    It's one thing to set up a climate prediction market, it's another to find enough informed traders to make the market work. Climate bets could range widely, from purely scientific or atmospheric metrics, to bets that involve the interplay of science, policy, economic, and behavioral outcomes. For a topic as complex and politicized as climate change, a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions could substantially expand and diversify the pool of individuals trading in the market, increasing both its liquidity and decision-support value. The Climate Web is an on-line and publically accessible Beta version of such a Bettor's Guide, implementing the knowledge management adage: "if only we knew what we know." The Climate Web not only curates the key literature, news coverage, and websites relating to more than 100 climate topics, from extreme event exceedance curves to climate economics to climate risk scenarios, it extracts and links together thousands of ideas and graphics across all of those topics. The Climate Web integrates the many disciplinary silos that characterize today's often dysfunctional climate policy conversations, allowing rapid cross-silo exploration and understanding. As a Bettor's Guide it would allow prediction market traders to better research and understand their potential bets, and to quickly survey key thinking and uncertainties relating to those bets. The availability of such a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions should make traders willing to place more bets than they otherwise would, and should facilitate higher quality betting. The presentation will introduce the knowledge management dimensions and challenges of climate prediction markets, and introduce the Climate Web as one solution to those challenges.

  10. Context Effects of Alcohol Availability at Home : Implicit Alcohol Associations and the Prediction of Adolescents' Drinking Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Koning, I.; Monshouwer, K.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.; Wiers, R.W.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Recent studies suggest that the predictive effect of implicit alcohol associations is context dependent. Findings indicate that implicit associations are more easily retrieved in an alcohol-associated setting or context (e.g., bar) compared with a neutral setting. In line with this

  11. Predicting Heavy Alcohol Use in College Students: Interactions Among Socialization of Coping, Alcohol Use Onset, and Physiological Reactivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanger, Sarah; Abaied, Jamie; Wagner, Caitlin

    2016-05-01

    Early age at onset of alcohol use is a risk factor for later heavy alcohol use, but some individuals are buffered from this risk. To better understand this process, this study investigated the interactive contributions of parental coping suggestions, skin conductance level reactivity (SCLR), and age at onset of alcohol use on heavy alcohol use in college students. College students (N = 146, 77% female) reported their age at onset of alcohol use, frequency of recent heavy alcohol use, and their parents' coping suggestions; SCLR was monitored as participants completed a laboratory challenge task. In addition, students' parents (N = 73, 77% mothers) reported on their coping suggestions. Results indicated that in the presence of physiological risk only (blunted SCLR, late age at onset of alcohol use), higher frequencies of engagement and disengagement parental coping suggestions were protective against heavy alcohol use in college students. However, if both risk factors were present (blunted SCLR, early age at onset of alcohol use), more engagement suggestions predicted more heavy alcohol use among college students. These findings extend previous findings on the impact of parenting on heavy alcohol use among college students and provide novel evidence for the moderating role of sympathetic stress reactivity.

  12. Hybrid system prediction for the stock market: The case of transitional markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralević Nebojša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the creation and testing of an enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes, including the comparison with the traditional neural network backpropagation model. The objective of the research is to gather information concerning the possibilities of using the enhanced fuzzy neural network backpropagation model for the prediction of stock market indexes focusing on transitional markets. The methodology used involves the integration of fuzzified weights into the neural network. The research results will be beneficial both for the broader investment community and the academia, in terms of the application of the enhanced model in the investment decision-making, as well as in improving the knowledge in this subject matter.

  13. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  14. Ecological Relevance of Memory Tests and the Prediction of Relapse in Alcoholics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, Steve; And Others

    Recent research suggests that alcoholic inpatients' performance on neuropsychological tests is predictive of their drinking status following discharge from alcohol rehabilitation programs, although no single test itself has been predictive of relapse. This study seeks to develop a ecologically relevant memory test that would predict relapse and…

  15. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    Aim To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9–17. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Results Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Conclusion Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. PMID:27864186

  16. Exposure of Children and Adolescents to Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506

  17. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winpenny, Eleanor M; Marteau, Theresa M; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15-24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation.

  18. The role of promotion in alcoholism treatment marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M A; Self, D R; Owens, C A; Kline, T A

    1988-01-01

    This article is an overview of the promotion function as a part of the ATM's marketing mix. It approaches various promotion decision areas from a managerial perspective, focusing upon some key components of promotion planning. Rather than provide specific operational or implementation details (how to write a brochure) it is more conceptual in nature and offers a framework for promotion planners. The article addresses promotion management, promotion objectives, analysis for promotion planning, the promotion mix, and addresses the benefits and limitations of some specific promotion tools available to the ATM manager. It treats ATMs as a service and reveals specific implications for promotion strategy dictated by services. The article also reports promotion tools employed by Alabama ATMs citing data from the Alabama study.

  19. Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

    2015-08-11

    The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

  20. Alcohol-use disorder severity predicts first-incidence of depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; van den Brink, W.; Penninx, B. W. J. H.; Wall, M. M.; Hasin, D. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background. Previous studies suggest that alcohol-use disorder severity, defined by the number of criteria met, provides a more informative phenotype than dichotomized DSM-IV diagnostic measures of alcohol use disorders. Therefore, this study examined whether alcohol-use disorder severity predicted

  1. Alcohol-use disorder severity predicts first-incidence of depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; van den Brink, W.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Wall, M.M.; Hasin, D.S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Previous studies suggest that alcohol-use disorder severity, defined by the number of criteria met, provides a more informative phenotype than dichotomized DSM-IV diagnostic measures of alcohol use disorders. Therefore, this study examined whether alcohol-use disorder severity predicted

  2. Do Culture-based Segments Predict Selection of Market Strategy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Jadczaková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Academists and practitioners have already acknowledged the importance of unobservable segmentation bases (such as psychographics yet still focusing on how well these bases are capable of describing relevant segments (the identifiability criterion rather than on how precisely these segments can predict (the predictability criterion. Therefore, this paper intends to add a debate to this topic by exploring whether culture-based segments do account for a selection of market strategy. To do so, a set of market strategy variables over a sample of 251 manufacturing firms was first regressed on a set of 19 cultural variables using canonical correlation analysis. Having found significant relationship in the first canonical function, it was further examined by means of correspondence analysis which cultural segments – if any – are linked to which market strategies. However, as correspondence analysis failed to find a significant relationship, it may be concluded that business culture might relate to the adoption of market strategy but not to the cultural groupings presented in the paper.

  3. How to use Fibonacci retracement to predict forex market

    OpenAIRE

    Violeta Gaucan

    2011-01-01

    In the material below I have tried to explain how can be used Fibonacci Retracement as an important tool to predict forex market. In this article I have included some graphic formats such as Fibonacci arcs, fan, channel, expansion, wich are created also with Fibonacci retracement and also rules to perfect chart plotting. I have analyzed some examples of Fibonacci retracements pattern in a downtrend and in an uptrend. In this article I have used and combine material from different sources tryi...

  4. Individual Variation in Alcohol Intake Predicts Reinforcement, Motivation, and Compulsive Alcohol Use in Rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spoelder, Marcia; Hesseling, Peter; Baars, Annemarie M; Lozeman - van t Klooster, José; Rotte, Marthe D; Vanderschuren, Louk J M J; Lesscher, Heidi M B

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Alcohol is one of the most commonly used psychoactive substances. Prolonged alcohol use can result in alcohol use disorder (AUD), characterized by excessive and compulsive alcohol consumption. Importantly, however, the development of AUD only happens in a minority of individuals who

  5. Symptoms of Alcohol Dependence Predict Suicide Ideation Among Alaskan Undergraduates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCou, Christopher R; Skewes, Monica C

    2016-05-01

    Previous research has demonstrated an association between alcohol-related problems and suicidal ideation (SI). The present study evaluated, simultaneously, alcohol consequences and symptoms of alcohol dependence as predictors of SI after adjusting for depressive symptoms and alcohol consumption. A sample of 298 Alaskan undergraduates completed survey measures, including the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire, the Short Alcohol Dependence Data Questionnaire, and the Beck Depression Inventory - II. The association between alcohol problems and SI status was evaluated using sequential logistic regression. Symptoms of alcohol dependence (OR = 1.88, p alcohol-related consequences (OR = 1.01, p = .95), emerged as an independent predictor of SI status above and beyond depressive symptoms (OR = 2.39, p alcohol consumption (OR = 1.08, p = .39). Alcohol dependence symptoms represented a unique risk for SI relative to alcohol-related consequences and alcohol consumption. Future research should examine the causal mechanism behind the relationship between alcohol dependence and suicidality among university students. Assessing the presence of dependence symptoms may improve the accuracy of identifying students at risk of SI.

  6. The sales and marketing practices of English-language internet alcohol vendors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Rebecca S; Schmidt, Allison

    2014-03-01

    This study aimed to fill information gaps about the sales and marketing practices of internet alcohol vendors and their implications for addressing youth access and other legal violations. Further, it aimed to expand the limited scientific literature on internet alcohol sales using systematic survey methods to inform future efforts to regulate this industry and prevent sales to minors. The design was a cross-sectional website content analysis survey. [Not applicable]. A total of 105 internet alcohol vendor websites. Six key content analysis topics were explored: products offered, average prices and proportions of vendors using different promotions, policy statements and methods for age verification, payment and delivery. Websites sell and promote a variety of alcohol products, offered as cheaply as $1.93 for a 750-ml bottle. Vendors rely heavily upon age verification methods that are unlikely to prevent sales to minors. Many vendors advertise shipping of products via methods through which it is illegal or against delivery company policies to transport alcohol, and 99% of vendors accept credit cards. Limiting and enforcing delivery and payment options are types of policy interventions that have been used successfully with internet cigarette vendors that may be applicable to internet alcohol vendors as well. Internet alcohol vendor practices are insufficient to prevent sales to minors, and need further regulation and enforcement of existing policies. Their sales practices are similar to those of internet cigarette vendors prior to regulation, and similar regulatory approaches may be effective in reducing internet alcohol sales to minors. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Dynamics of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco goods in the Tatarstan Republic market

    OpenAIRE

    Oleg R. Karatayev

    2015-01-01

    Objective to identify and assess the share of counterfeit products in the total volume of alcohol and tobacco products in the consumer market of Tatarstan Republic which will allow the inspection bodies to deal more effectively to prevent the spreading of counterfeit products. Methods the research proposed in this paper used methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and the method of sampling analysis of certificates for products in accordance with applicable laws and...

  8. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9-17. MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

  9. Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano Iglesias, María; de Lourdes Samaniego Vaesken, María; Varela Moreiras, Gregorio

    2016-10-08

    The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0-55 kcal/0-13 g for soft drinks; 2-60 kcal/0-14.5 g for energy drinks; 24-31 kcal/5.8-7.5 g for sports drinks; 1-32 kcal/0-7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14-69 kcal/2.6-17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43-78 kcal/6.1-14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33-88 kcal/3.6-14 g for dairy drinks. The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day.

  10. Alcohol sponsorship of a summer of sport: a frequency analysis of alcohol marketing during major sports events on New Zealand television.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Tim; Signal, Louise; Carter, Mary-Ann; McConville, Samuel; Wong, Rebecca; Zhu, Wendy

    2017-01-13

    This research aims to assess the nature and extent of alcohol marketing through sport sponsorship over a summer of televised sport in New Zealand. Frequency analysis of New Zealand television broadcasts of five international sporting events during the summer of 2014-2015. Broadcasts were analysed to identify the percentage of time when alcohol brands were visible during game-play. The number of independent alcohol brand exposures was recorded. Alcohol brands were observed during every televised event. Audiences were exposed to between 1.6 and 3.8 alcohol brand exposures per minute. Alcohol brands were visible between 42 and 777 times across the games examined. For three out of the five events alcohol brands were visible for almost half of the game. Alcohol sponsorship was prevalent in international sport on New Zealand television. Given the popularity of broadcast sport, especially with children, there is an urgent need for regulation of alcohol sponsorship of sport. There are viable models of alcohol sponsorship replacement but their implementation requires the will of both sporting organisations and politicians. This research adds weight to arguments to implement recommendations to remove all alcohol sponsorship of sport.

  11. Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fathia Elleuch Lahyani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research uses variance ratio analysis to test whether Middle Eastern, North African (MENA and Pacific Basin emerging equity markets follow a martingale behavior during the period1980-2004. The conventional Lo and MacKinlay variance ratio test, the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning, rank- and sign-based test of Wright, and wild bootstrap of Kim are used for the monthly return series. The problem of thin trading was addressed using Miller, Muthuswamy, and Whaley’s adjusting procedure. Results have shown traces of a martingale behavior at high holding horizons. However, overall conclusions indicate that the null martingale hypothesis is strongly rejected for the whole sample and considered sub-periods at a 5% significance level. The pattern of the variance ratio estimates signify that the selected stock markets exhibit persistent mean-reverting and predictable behavior in their monthly adjusted returns series. The results expose the ineffectiveness of economic liberalization and privatization measures implemented in the early 1990s to improve their market efficiency. The Asian crisis did not affect the outcomes of the variance ratio analysis. Moreover, it sounds as if the perceptible development in terms of size and liquidity was not sufficient to exhibit a martingale behavior in these markets.

  12. Emotion dysregulation and peer drinking norms uniquely predict alcohol-related problems via motives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Simons, Jeffrey S; Murase, Hanako

    2017-08-01

    This study examined the relationships between emotion dysregulation, peer drinking norms, drinking motives, and alcohol-related outcomes among 435 college students. We examined the mediating roles of drinking motives when predicting alcohol consumption and related problems from the subscales of the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS; Gratz and Roemer, 2004) via negative and positive reinforcement models. First, we hypothesized that individuals who lack in emotion regulation strategies or have difficulties in accepting negative emotions are more likely to drink to cope. Additionally, we hypothesized that individuals who act impulsively or become distracted when upset as well as those with higher peer drinking norms are more likely to drink for social and enhancement motives. The results of the path model indicated that limited access to emotion regulation strategies significantly predicted alcohol-related problems via both depression and anxiety coping motives, but did not predict alcohol consumption. Nonacceptance of emotional responses was not significantly associated with coping motives. Impulsivity had a significant direct relationship with alcohol problems. Difficulty in engaging in goal-directed behaviors predicted both enhancement and social motives, but only enhancement motives in turn predicted consumption. Norms indirectly predicted problems via enhancement motives and consumption. The results indicated that using alcohol to reduce negative or to increase positive emotions increases alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Overall, results advance our understanding of the mechanisms of increased alcohol use and problems among college students. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Perception and reality: a national evaluation of social norms marketing interventions to reduce college students' heavy alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Henry; Nelson, Toben E; Lee, Jae Eun; Seibring, Mark; Lewis, Catherine; Keeling, Richard P

    2003-07-01

    To evaluate a widely used intervention to reduce college student alcohol use, we studied student drinking patterns at colleges that employed social norms marketing programs and those that did not. We examined responses of students in the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study (CAS) 1997, 1999 and 2001 data sets at 37 colleges that employed social norms marketing programs and at 61 that did not. Information about the students' drinking behavior and their familiarity with social norms marketing messages at their schools was analyzed, as were college administrators' reports about the implementation of social norms marketing campaigns. Schools were grouped on the basis of student reports of exposure to programmatic materials. Trend analyses were conducted on seven standard measures of alcohol consumption, including annual and 30-day use, frequency, usual quantity and volume consumed, heavy episodic use, and drunkenness. Almost half of the CAS colleges sampled adopted social norms programs. Those that did were more likely to have large enrollments, not to be religiously affiliated and to have high rates of alcohol use. No decreases were noted in any of the seven measures of alcohol use at schools with social norms programs, even when student exposure and length of program existence were considered. Increases in measures of monthly alcohol use and total volume consumed, however, were observed at schools employing social norms programs. This study does not provide evidence to support the effectiveness of social norms marketing programs, as currently utilized, in reducing alcohol use among college students.

  14. Possibility to predict the development of secondary depression in primary alcoholics during abstinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandić-Gajić Gordana

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The relationship between alcoholism and depression is observed in clinical trials. The factors which could predict persistence of secondary depression after alcohol withdrawal are not enough explored on admission. The differences between depressed (DA and non-depressed (NDA alcoholics regarding the degrees of severity of withdrawal, severity of depression and the intensity of cognitive dysfunctions were explored on admission to investigate possibility of prediction of the development of secondary depression in alcoholics. Methods. A group of primary male alcoholics (n=86 was recruited during inpatient treatment. After 4 weeks alcoholics were divided in the DA group (n=43 and NDA (n=43 group according to the score on the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D. Clinical assessment of withdrawal, scoring on the Alcohol Dependency Severity Scale- ASD, and scoring on the Mini Mental Scale-MMSE were performed in all the participants on admission. The differences between the groups were tested by the Student's t-test. Results. The DA group showed the significantly higher severity of depression, higher levels of alcohol withdrawal symptoms and cognitive dysfunctions than the NDA group on admission. Conclusion. The specific group of depressive alcoholics was shown to be characterized by the higher severity of alcoholism and depression on admission, which could predict prolonged, secondary depression. Early detection and concurrent therapy of secondary depression could improve the treatment, and reduce the relapse of alcoholism.

  15. Alcohol marketing on YouTube: exploratory analysis of content adaptation to enhance user engagement in different national contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

    2018-01-16

    We know little about how social media alcohol marketing is utilized for alcohol promotion in different national contexts. There does not appear to be any academic work on online exposure to alcohol marketing via social media in India, and most of the limited research in Australia has focused on Facebook. Hence, the present study extends previous research by investigating alcohol promotion conducted on an under-researched form of social media (YouTube) in two contrasting geographic contexts. This study examines and compares the types of strategies used by marketers on Indian and Australian alcohol brands with the greatest YouTube presence, and the extent to which users engage with these strategies. The 10 alcohol brands per country with the greatest YouTube presence were identified based on the number of 'subscriptions'. The number of videos, views per video, and the type of content within the videos were collected for each brand. The data were analyzed using an inductive coding approach, using NVivo 10. The targeted brands had gathered 98,881 subscriptions (Indian brands: n = 13,868; Australian brands: n = 85,013). The type of marketing strategies utilized by brands were a mix of those that differed by country (e.g. sexually suggestive content in India and posts related to the brand's tradition or heritage in Australia) and generic approaches (e.g. encouraging time- and event-specific drinking; demonstrations of food/cocktail recipes; camaraderie; competitions and prize draws; and brand sponsorship at music, sports, and fashion events). This cross-national comparison demonstrates that YouTube provides alcohol marketers with an advertising platform where they utilize tailored marketing approaches to cater to specific national contexts and develop content on the cultural meanings users invoke in their interactions with these strategies. Those exposed to alcohol marketing on YouTube are likely to include those under the legal drinking age.

  16. Do premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence also predict the failure to recover from alcoholism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim; Nickel, Elizabeth J

    2010-01-01

    diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifiers. RESULTS: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were...... a Danish birth cohort (N = 9,182). Two thirds of the subjects were high-risk biological sons of treated alcoholics. A large number of measures (361) were obtained at different periods before any subject had developed an alcohol-use disorder. At age 40, a psychiatrist provided mutually exclusive lifetime...

  17. The party effect: Prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    Aims To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Design Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. Setting All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. Participants A sample of 2541 respondents with a mean age of 18.1 years (51.6% female) of which 1053 (41%) never had a whole drink of alcohol and 1727 (67%) never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion. Measurements Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all ads as “party” or “non-party” ads. Sociodemographics, sensation seeking, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Findings Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, about half (M = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were “party” ads. If both types of exposures (“party” and “non-party”) were included in the regression model, only “party” exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset (AOR=19.17; 95%CI 3.72–98.79) and binge drinking onset (AOR=3.87; 95%CI 1.07–13.99) after covariate control. Conclusions Adolescents and young adults with higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme had higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset, even after control of exposure to other types of alcohol advertisements. PMID:27343140

  18. Self-Reported Youth and Adult Exposure to Alcohol Marketing in Traditional and Digital Media: Results of a Pilot Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jernigan, David H; Padon, Alisa; Ross, Craig; Borzekowski, Dina

    2017-03-01

    Alcohol marketing is known to be a significant risk factor for underage drinking. However, little is known about youth and adult exposure to alcohol advertising in digital and social media. This study piloted a comparative assessment of youth and adult recall of exposure to online marketing of alcohol. From September to October 2013, a pilot survey of past 30-day exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content in traditional and digital media was administered to a national sample of 1,192 youth (ages 13 to 20) and 1,124 adults (ages ≥21) using a prerecruited Internet panel maintained by GfK Custom Research. The weighted proportions of youth and adults who reported this exposure were compared by media type and by advertising and promotional content. Youth were more likely than adults to recall exposure to alcohol advertising on television (69.2% vs. 61.9%), radio (24.8% vs. 16.7%), billboards (54.8% vs. 35.4%), and the Internet (29.7% vs. 16.8%), but less likely to recall seeing advertising in magazines (35.7% vs. 36.4%). Youth were also more likely to recall seeing advertisements and pictures on the Internet of celebrities using alcohol (36.1% vs. 20.8%) or wearing clothing promoting alcohol (27.7% vs. 15.9%), and actively respond (i.e., like, share, or post) to alcohol-related content online. Youth report greater exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content than adults in most media, including on the Internet. These findings emphasize the need to assure compliance with voluntary industry standards on the placement of alcohol advertising and the importance of developing better tools for monitoring youth exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly on the Internet. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  19. Target marketing of tobacco and alcohol-related products to ethnic minority groups in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, D J; Williams, J D; Qualls, W J

    1996-01-01

    This paper examines whether increased consumption of tobacco and alcohol products by minority groups is a function of the target marketing campaigns directed at these groups by marketers, and whether such contributes to the perpetuation of racism. First, a description of the tobacco and alcohol consumption rates of blacks and Hispanics compared to whites is presented, including a comparative analysis of the health effects and mortality rates resulting from the consumption of tobacco and alcohol. Second, the paper examines specific marketing strategies of targeting tobacco and alcohol products to ethnic minority consumers. This is followed by a discussion of whether these practices are a deliberate strategy driven by racism or just the pursuit of profit. A framework for answering the question is provided. Finally, the paper assesses the prospects for change in the future, and analyzes specific needs for future research.

  20. Evaluating the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M; Adkins, Amy

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science Study, a longitudinal study of students' substance use and emotional health. Participants were e-mailed an online survey that queried campaign readership, perception of peer alcohol use, alcohol consumption, frequency of consumption, and frequency of blackouts. Associations between variables were evaluated using path analysis. We found that campaign readership was associated with more accurate perceptions of peer alcohol use, which, in turn, was associated with self-reported lower number of drinks per sitting and experiencing fewer blackouts. This evaluation supports the use of social norms marketing as a population-level intervention to correct alcohol-use misperceptions and reduce blackouts.

  1. Joe Camel in a bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff brand, and the transformation of the youth alcohol market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, James F

    2012-01-01

    I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health.

  2. Prediction of mortality at age 40 in Danish males at high and low risk for alcoholism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Nickel, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This prospective high-risk study examined the influence of father's alcoholism and other archival-generated measures on premature death. METHOD: Sons of alcoholic fathers (n = 223) and sons of non-alcoholic fathers (n = 106) have been studied from birth to age 40. Archival predictors...... of premature death included father's alcoholism, childhood developmental data, and diagnostic information obtained from the Psychiatric Register and alcoholism clinics. RESULTS: By age 40, 21 of the 329 subjects had died (6.4%), a rate that is more than two times greater than expected. Sons of alcoholic...... fathers were not more likely to die by age 40. Premature death was associated with physical immaturity at 1-year of age and psychiatric/alcoholism treatment. No significant interactions were found between risk and archival measures. CONCLUSION: Genetic vulnerability did not independently predict death...

  3. Implicitly positive about alcohol? Implicit positive associations predict drinking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houben, K.; Wiers, R.W.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    Research using unipolar Implicit Association Tests (IATs) demonstrated that positive but not negative implicit alcohol associations are related to drinking behavior. However, the relative nature of the IAT with respect to target concepts (i.e., alcohol vs. soft drinks) obscures the interpretation of

  4. Predicting an Alcohol Use Disorder in Urban American Indian Youths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale

    2014-01-01

    This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…

  5. Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Serrano Iglesias

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. Materials and Methods: The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. Results: The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0–55 kcal/0–13 g for soft drinks; 2–60 kcal/0–14.5 g for energy drinks; 24–31 kcal/5.8–7.5 g for sports drinks; 1–32 kcal/0–7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14–69 kcal/2.6–17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43–78 kcal/6.1–14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33–88 kcal/3.6–14 g for dairy drinks. Conclusion: The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day.

  6. Context effects of alcohol availability at home: Implicit alcohol associations and the prediction of adolescents' drinking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Koning, H.M.; Monshouwer, K.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.; Wiers, Reinout W

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Recent studies suggest that the predictive effect of implicit alcohol associations is context dependent. Findings indicate that implicit associations are more easily retrieved in an alcoholassociated setting or context (e.g., bar) compared with a neutral setting. In line with this

  7. One size (never) fits all: segment differences observed following a school-based alcohol social marketing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-04-01

    According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. A sample of 371 year 10 students (aged: 14-16 years; 51.4% boys) participated in a prospective (pre-post) multisite alcohol social marketing program. Game On: Know Alcohol (GO:KA) program included 6, student-centered, and interactive lessons to teach adolescents about alcohol and strategies to abstain or moderate drinking. A repeated measures design was used. Baseline demographics, drinking attitudes, drinking intentions, and alcohol knowledge were cluster analyzed to identify segments. Change on key program outcome measures and satisfaction with program components were assessed by segment. Three segments were identified; (1) Skeptics, (2) Risky Males, (3) Good Females. Segments 2 and 3 showed greatest change in drinking attitudes and intentions. Good Females reported highest satisfaction with all program components and Skeptics lowest program satisfaction with all program components. Three segments, each differing on psychographic and demographic variables, exhibited different change patterns following participation in GO:KA. Post hoc analysis identified that satisfaction with program components differed by segment offering opportunities for further research. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  8. Developmental Relations between Alcohol Expectancies and Social Norms in Predicting Alcohol Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Tim; Treloar Padovano, Hayley; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

    2018-01-01

    Expectations about alcohol's effects and perceptions of peers' behaviors and beliefs related to alcohol use are each shown to strongly influence the timing of drinking onset during adolescence. The present study builds on prior work by examining the conjoint effects of within-person changes in these social-cognitive factors on age of adolescent…

  9. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swahn, Monica H; Palmier, Jane B; Benegas-Segarra, Agnes; Sinson, Fe A

    2013-12-10

    A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths' drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5,290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI=1.06-3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI=1.05-2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI =1.06-2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  10. The party effect: prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D

    2017-01-01

    To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. A sample of 705 respondents who never had a whole drink of alcohol at baseline (mean age 16.9 years, 53.3% female) and a sample of 1036 who never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion (mean age 17.4 years, 55.8% female). Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all advertisements as 'party' or 'non-party' advertisements. Socio-demographics, sensation-seeking, alcohol expectancies and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, approximately half (median = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were 'party' advertisements. If both types of exposures ('party' and 'non-party') were included in the regression model, only 'party' exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 19.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.72-98.79] and binge drinking onset (AOR = 3.87; 95% CI = 1.07-13.99) after covariate control. Adolescents and young adults in the United States appear to have higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset if they have higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme, independently of the amount of exposure to alcohol advertisements with non

  11. Marketing messages in food and alcohol magazine advertisements, variations across type and nutritional content of promoted products: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, A; Burke, W; Adams, J

    2014-09-01

    'Marketing messages' are the themes used in advertisements to promote products. We explored the frequency of different marketing messages used in food and alcohol advertisements in UK women's magazines and associations with the type and nutritional content of products promoted. All advertisements for food and alcohol in 108 issues of popular UK monthly women's magazines were identified and text-based marketing messages classified using a bespoke coding framework. This information was linked to existing data on the type (i.e. food group) and nutritional content of advertised products. A total of 2 687 marketing messages were identified in 726 advertisements. Consumer messages such as 'taste' and 'quality' were most frequently found. Marketing messages used in advertisements for food and alcohol were notably different. The relationship between type and nutritional content of products advertised and marketing messages used was not intuitive from a consumer perspective: advertisements for foods 'high in fat and/or sugar' were less likely to use messages related to health, but more likely to use messages emphasizing reduced amounts of specific nutrients. Almost all advertisements included consumer-related marketing messages. Marketing messages used were not always congruent with the type or nutritional content of advertised products. These findings should be considered when developing policy. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Implicit alcohol associations, especially drinking identity, predict drinking over time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindgren, K.P.; Neighbors, C.; Teachman, B.A.; Baldwin, S.A.; Norris, J.; Kaysen, D.; Gasser, M.L.; Wiers, R.W.

    OBJECTIVE: There is considerable excitement about implicit alcohol associations (IAAs) as predictors of college-student hazardous drinking; however, few studies have investigated IAAs prospectively, included multiple assessments, or controlled for previous drinking. Doing so is essential for showing

  13. Do daily fluctuations in inhibitory control predict alcohol consumption? : An ecological momentary assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jones, Andrew; Tiplady, Brian; Houben, Katrijn; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Field, Matt

    2018-01-01

    RATIONALE: Deficient inhibitory control is predictive of increased alcohol consumption in the laboratory; however, little is known about this relationship in naturalistic, real-world settings. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we implemented ecological momentary assessment methods to investigate the

  14. Predicting academic problems in college from freshman alcohol involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, P K; Sher, K J; Erickson, D J; DeBord, K A

    1997-03-01

    The present article examines the relation of problematic alcohol use to collegiate academic problems based on a systematic assessment of problematic alcohol use and college transcript data. The degree to which this prospective association can be explained by reference to third variables is also explored. These third variables include: students' high school academic achievement and aptitude, concurrent drug use, participation in deviant behaviors and students' investment or participation in the college experience. A sample of 444 (240 female) college freshman recruited for a longitudinal study of alcohol use was followed for 6 years. Alcohol and drug involvement, general deviance, academic investment, campus involvement and several background variables were assessed during the freshman year. Additional measures of high school aptitude and achievement as well as collegiate performance were calculated based on college transcript data from all institutions attended. A latent variable structural equation model revealed that problematic alcohol use during the freshman year correlated +.32 with collegiate academic problems. No evidence was found for a unique association between the two constructs when additional constructs were included in the model. Specifically, the association was substantially reduced when preexisting student differences traditionally associated with academic failure in college were taken into account. The inclusion of concurrent drug use and deviance also resulted in a significant reduction in the magnitude of the association. Although a substantial bivariate association exists between problematic alcohol use and academic problems during college, much of this association appears attributable to preexisting student differences on admission to college.

  15. When Habits Are Dangerous: Alcohol Expectancies and Habitual Decision Making Predict Relapse in Alcohol Dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebold, Miriam; Nebe, Stephan; Garbusow, Maria; Guggenmos, Matthias; Schad, Daniel J; Beck, Anne; Kuitunen-Paul, Soeren; Sommer, Christian; Frank, Robin; Neu, Peter; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Rapp, Michael A; Smolka, Michael N; Huys, Quentin J M; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Heinz, Andreas

    2017-12-01

    Addiction is supposedly characterized by a shift from goal-directed to habitual decision making, thus facilitating automatic drug intake. The two-step task allows distinguishing between these mechanisms by computationally modeling goal-directed and habitual behavior as model-based and model-free control. In addicted patients, decision making may also strongly depend upon drug-associated expectations. Therefore, we investigated model-based versus model-free decision making and its neural correlates as well as alcohol expectancies in alcohol-dependent patients and healthy controls and assessed treatment outcome in patients. Ninety detoxified, medication-free, alcohol-dependent patients and 96 age- and gender-matched control subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during the two-step task. Alcohol expectancies were measured with the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire. Over a follow-up period of 48 weeks, 37 patients remained abstinent and 53 patients relapsed as indicated by the Alcohol Timeline Followback method. Patients who relapsed displayed reduced medial prefrontal cortex activation during model-based decision making. Furthermore, high alcohol expectancies were associated with low model-based control in relapsers, while the opposite was observed in abstainers and healthy control subjects. However, reduced model-based control per se was not associated with subsequent relapse. These findings suggest that poor treatment outcome in alcohol dependence does not simply result from a shift from model-based to model-free control but is instead dependent on the interaction between high drug expectancies and low model-based decision making. Reduced model-based medial prefrontal cortex signatures in those who relapse point to a neural correlate of relapse risk. These observations suggest that therapeutic interventions should target subjective alcohol expectancies. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  16. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-06-19

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

  17. Alcohol

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... because that's how many accidents occur. What Is Alcoholism? What can be confusing about alcohol is that ... develop a problem with it. Sometimes, that's called alcoholism (say: al-kuh-HOL - ism) or being an ...

  18. Alcohol

    Science.gov (United States)

    If you are like many Americans, you drink alcohol at least occasionally. For many people, moderate drinking ... risky. Heavy drinking can lead to alcoholism and alcohol abuse, as well as injuries, liver disease, heart ...

  19. Alcohol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navarro Junior, L.

    1988-01-01

    The alcohol production as a secondary energy source, the participation of the alcohol in Brazilian national economic and social aspects are presented. Statistical data of alcohol demand compared with petroleum by-products and electricity are also included. (author)

  20. The marketing potential of corporate social responsibility activities: the case of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantani, Daniela; Peltzer, Raquel; Cremonte, Mariana; Robaina, Katherine; Babor, Thomas; Pinsky, Ilana

    2017-01-01

    The aims were to: (1) identify, monitor and analyse the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and (2) examine whether the alcohol industry is using these actions to market their products and brands. Nine health experts from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay conducted a content analysis of 218 CSR activities using a standardized protocol. A content rating procedure was used to evaluate the marketing potential of CSR activities as well as their probable population reach and effectiveness. The LEAD procedure (longitudinal, expert and all data) was applied to verify the accuracy of industry-reported descriptions. A total of 55.8% of the actions were found to have a marketing potential, based on evidence that they are likely to promote brands and products. Actions with marketing potential were more likely to reach a larger audience than actions classified with no marketing potential. Most actions did not fit into any category recommended by the World Health Organization; 50% of the actions involving classroom and college education for young people were found to have marketing potential; 62.3% were classified as meeting the definition of risk management CSR. Alcohol industry Corporate Social Responsibility activities in Latin America and the Caribbean appear to have a strategic marketing role beyond their stated philanthropic and public health purpose. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  1. The composition of alcohol products from markets in Lithuania and Hungary, and potential health consequences: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Sarsh, Bart; Rehm, Jürgen

    2009-01-01

    The rates of alcohol-attributable mortality in Lithuania and Hungary have been shown to be higher than those in most other European countries. Quality of alcohol products is investigated as a possible explanation. In a descriptive pilot study, a convenience sample of alcohol products was collected from local city markets in both countries (Lithuania n = 10, Hungary n = 15) and chemical analyses, including some that have not been done in prior studies, were conducted. The parameters studied were alcoholic strength, volatiles (methanol, acetaldehyde, higher alcohols), ethyl carbamate, anions (including nitrate) and inorganic elements (including lead). Additionally, a multi-target screening analysis for toxicologically relevant substances was conducted. The majority of samples (64%) had an alcohol content between 35% vol. and 40% vol., being in accordance with the typical strength of legal spirits in Europe. Three samples containing significantly higher concentrations of alcohol above 60% vol. were found to be unrecorded alcohol products, defined as any alcohol that is outside of legal and taxed production. Screening analysis showed that those samples contained various flavourings, including the hepatotoxic substance coumarin, at concentrations above the legal limit for foods. All other substance classes under study were found to be at levels of no toxicological concern. Although some problems with the quality of the alcohol samples were found, there is insufficient evidence from this pilot study to conclude that alcohol quality has an influence on health as reflected in alcohol-attributable mortality rates. Given the extent of alcohol-attributable disease burden in central and eastern European countries, future research should focus on collection of large, representative samples, particularly of unrecorded sources, which was the most problematic product group in our study.

  2. Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Wanfeng; Woodard, Ryan; Sornette, Didier

    2012-02-01

    We introduce the concept of “negative bubbles” as the mirror (but not necessarily exactly symmetric) image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate describing the collective buying pressure of noise traders. The price fall occurring during a transient negative bubble can be interpreted as an effective random down payment that rational agents accept to pay in the hope of profiting from the expected occurrence of a possible rally. We validate the model by showing that it has significant predictive power in identifying the times of major market rebounds. This result is obtained by using a general pattern recognition method that combines the information obtained at multiple times from a dynamical calibration of the JLS model. Error diagrams, Bayesian inference and trading strategies suggest that one can extract genuine information and obtain real skill from the calibration of negative bubbles with the JLS model. We conclude that negative bubbles are in general predictably associated with large rebounds or rallies, which are the mirror images of the crashes terminating standard bubbles.

  3. Implicit Alcohol Approach and Avoidance Tendencies Predict Future Drinking in Problem Drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Braunstein, Laura; Kuerbis, Alexis; Ochsner, Kevin; Morgenstern, Jon

    2016-09-01

    Addiction is characterized by compulsive drug seeking and substance use, yet many individuals break free of these patterns and change their behavior. Traditional candidate predictors of behavior change/persistence rely on self-reports of factors such as readiness to change. However, explicit measures only characterize top-down influences on behavior. The incentive sensitization model of addition suggests that more implicit, automatic processes, such as the tendency to approach substance cues, play a major role in behavior. We examined implicit alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies using a reaction time (RT) task in a sample of problem drinkers with alcohol use disorder (AUD) seeking to reduce heavy drinking. We measured alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies at baseline and at outcome, 12 weeks later. We asked whether alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies (i) changed over time, (ii) related to current drinking, and (iii) predicted changes in drinking from baseline to outcome. Approach and avoidance tendencies did not significantly change over time, nor did they correlate with current drinking, but these tendencies at baseline did predict drinking weeks later. Faster alcohol approach was associated with greater overall drinking at outcome, and faster alcohol avoidance predicted fewer drinking days per week at outcome. Exploratory analyses examined the relationship between approach and avoidance and traditional explicit measures including appraisals of alcohol and motivation to change. Implicit approach tendencies were largely distinct from explicit measures, and approach and avoidance tendencies explained unique variance in outcome drinking. The current findings suggest that implicit alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies assessed via a simple reaction time task can predict relative changes in drinking weeks later. Given that many explicit measures typically used in treatment studies fail to predict who will change, approach and avoidance tendencies

  4. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stautz, Kaidy; Brown, Kyle G; King, Sarah E; Shemilt, Ian; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-06-09

    Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome), explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes). Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students) found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34). A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students) did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = -0.05, 0.37). Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals) may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1.69 units for females. The generalizability of this finding

  5. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaidy Stautz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Methods Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome, explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes. Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Results Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34. A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = −0.05, 0.37. Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Conclusions Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1

  6. Correlation and prediction of environmental properties of alcohol ethoxylate surfactants using the UNIFAC method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Hongyuan; Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2005-01-01

    Environmental properties of one type of nonionic surfactants, the alcohol ethoxylates (polyoxyethylene alcohols), are predicted using the UNIFAC (universal quasi-chemical functional group activity coefficient) method. Various properties are considered; the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow......), the bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the toxicity. Kow values of alcohol ethoxylates are difficult to measure. Existing methods such as those in commercial software like ACD,ClogP and KowWin have not been applied to surfactants, and they fail for heavy alcohol ethoxylates (alkyl carbon numbers above 12). Thus......, the Kow values are predicted here via UNIFAC and compared to the few available experimental data. Based on the predicted Kow values, a correlation between Kow and hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) is establi2shed because HLB is a widely used parameter in surfactant applications. Finally, BCF...

  7. Britain's alcohol market: how minimum alcohol prices could stop moderate drinkers subsidising those drinking at hazardous and harmful levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Record, Chris; Day, Chris

    2009-10-01

    Discounting of alcoholic products is universal in U.K. supermarkets with some chains selling own brand spirits for less than the duty payable per item. Eighty per cent of alcohol purchases are made by 30% of the population and this group are the main beneficiaries. In December 2008 the government announced its intention to consult on modifications to the Licensing Act 2003 to enable the introduction of mandatory conditions for the sale of alcoholic products in order to curtail alcohol harm. In this article it is shown that families in Britain have nothing to fear from the introduction of a 50 p/unit minimum price of alcohol as the overall effect should be a reduction in average weekly supermarket bills for the majority while harmful and hazardous drinkers will pay more. By paying less for non-alcoholic products sold by supermarkets, moderate drinkers should no longer be effectively subsidising the alcohol purchased by the harmful and hazardous group.

  8. Tests of executive functioning predict scores on the MacAndrew Alcoholism Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckel, A W

    1999-02-01

    1. Previous work reported that tests of executive functioning (EF) predict the risk of alcoholism in subject populations selected for a "high density" of a family history of alcoholism and/or the presence of sociopathic traits. The current experiment examined the ability of EF tests to predict the risk of alcoholism, as measured by the MacAndrew Alcoholism Scale (MAC), in outpatient subjects referred to a general neuropsychological testing service. 2. Sixty-eight male and female subjects referred for neuropsychological testing were assessed for their past drinking histories and administered the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised, the Trails (Part B) Test, and the MAC. Principal Components analysis (PCA) reduced the number of EF tests to two measures, including one that loaded on the WCST, and one that loaded on the Similarities, Picture Arrangement, and Trails tests. Multiple hierarchical regression first removed the variance from demographic variables, alcohol consumption, and verbal (i.e., Vocabulary) and non-verbal (i.e., Block Design) IQ, and then entered the executive functioning factors into the prediction of the MAC. 3. Seventy-six percent of the subjects were classified as either light, infrequent, or non-drinkers on the Quantity-Frequency-Variability scale. The factor derived from the WCST on PCA significantly added to the prediction of risk on the MAC (p = .0063), as did scores on Block Design (p = .033). Relatively more impaired scores on the WCST factor and Block Design were predictive of higher scores on the MAC. The other factors were not associated with MAC scores. 4. These results support the hypothesis that decrements in EF are associated with risk factors for alcoholism, even in populations where the density of alcoholic behaviors are not unusually high. When taken in conjunction with other findings, these results implicate EF test scores, and prefrontal brain functioning, in the neurobiology of the risk for

  9. Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.

  10. Beyond treatment effects: predicting emerging adult alcohol and marijuana use among substance-abusing delinquents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clingempeel, W Glenn; Henggeler, Scott W; Pickrel, Susan G; Brondino, Michael J; Randall, Jeff

    2005-10-01

    Secondary analyses of a randomized clinical trial examined the effects of 4 putative risk factors and 2 protective factors in predicting drug use among 80 emerging adults treated 5 years earlier for delinquency and alcohol and/or marijuana use disorders. Frequency of marijuana use and the number of comorbid psychiatric disorders in adolescence predicted cannabis use in emerging adulthood. Increasing academic competence at high levels of social competence predicted less marijuana use. At emerging adulthood, greater use of alcohol and marijuana were associated with both criminality and psychopathology.

  11. Government net income in the fuel alcohol marketing; Estimativa do saldo do governo na comercializacao de alcool carburante

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brugnaro, Caetano

    1992-12-31

    This study aims to analyse the fuel price formation structures in order to estimate the governmental net income in fuel alcohol marketing and to develop a mathematical model to forecast these estimates under alternative economic scenarios. Three scenarios - an optimistic, an intermediary and a pessimistic were set up through intuitive projections and the mathematical model developed was applied to them. 33 refs., 9 tabs.

  12. Exposure to online alcohol marketing and adolescents' drinking : A cross-sectional study in four European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordi F.; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in

  13. Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

    2011-01-01

    Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…

  14. Evaluating the Effect of a Campus-Wide Social Norms Marketing Intervention on Alcohol-Use Perceptions, Consumption, and Blackouts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M.; Adkins, Amy

    2018-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. Participants: 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science…

  15. Exposure to online alcohol marketing and adolescents' drinking: A cross-sectional study in four European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, A. de; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Anderson, P.D.; Bujalski, M.; Gosselt, J.; Schreckenberg, D.; Wohtge, J.; Leeuw, R.N.H. de

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in

  16. A randomized trial of three marketing strategies to disseminate a screening and brief alcohol intervention programme to general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E

    1999-09-01

    Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy for dissemination of SBI to GPs.

  17. OPRM1 genotype interacts with serotonin system dysfunction to predict alcohol-heightened aggression in primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Carlos A; Lindell, Stephen G; Schwandt, Melanie L; Suomi, Stephen J; Higley, J Dee; Heilig, Markus; Barr, Christina S

    2017-11-01

    Although the notion that alcohol promotes violence is widespread, not all individuals are aggressive while intoxicated. Genetic variation could be a contributing factor to individual differences in alcohol-heightened aggression. The present study examines the effects of OPRM1C77G genotype on responses to threat in rhesus macaques under normal conditions and following alcohol administration. Prior studies have shown that a low CSF level of 5-HIAA is a trait marker for individuals prone to escalated aggression. We wanted to examine whether the predictive value for this marker on aggression was moderated by OPRM1 genotype. Animals were administered alcohol (BAC 100-200 mg%), were provoked by a human intruder, and aggressive responses were recorded. Factor analysis was performed to generate aggressive response factors, which were then used as dependent variables for ANOVA, with OPRM1 genotype and CSF 5-HIAA as independent variables. Factor analysis generated three factors ('Threatening', 'Distance Decreasing' and 'High Intensity'). We found that High Intensity aggression was increased among carriers of the OPRM1 G allele, especially among individuals with low CSF levels of 5-HIAA. Aggression in the non-intoxicated state was predicted by 5-HIAA, but not by genotype. This study demonstrates that OPRM1 genotype predicts alcohol-heightened aggression in rhesus macaques with low CSF levels of 5-HIAA. Because OPRM1 variation predicts similar effects on alcohol response and behavior in humans and macaques, this study could suggest a role for OPRM1 genotype in alcohol-heightened aggression in humans. If so, it may be that compounds that block this receptor could reduce alcohol-associated violence in selected patient populations. © Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Policy-relevant behaviours predict heavier drinking and mediate the relationship with age, gender and education status: Analysis from the International Alcohol Control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Parry, Charles D H; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Piazza, Marina

    2018-02-21

    To investigate behaviours related to four alcohol policy variables (policy-relevant behaviours) and demographic variables in relation to typical quantities of alcohol consumed on-premise in six International Alcohol Control study countries. General population surveys with drinkers using a comparable survey instrument and data analysed using path analysis in an overall model and for each country. typical quantities per occasion consumed on-premise; gender, age; years of education, prices paid, time of purchase, time to access alcohol and liking for alcohol advertisements. In the overall model younger people, males and those with fewer years of education consumed larger typical quantities. Overall lower prices paid, later time of purchase and liking for alcohol ads predicted consuming larger typical quantities; this was found in the high-income countries, less consistently in the high-middle-income countries and not in the low middle-income country. Three policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase, liking for alcohol ads) mediated the relationships between age, gender, education and consumption in high-income countries. International Alcohol Control survey data showed a relationship between policy-relevant behaviours and typical quantities consumed and support the likely effect of policy change (trading hours, price and restrictions on marketing) on heavier drinking. The path analysis also revealed policy-relevant behaviours were significant mediating variables between the effect of age, gender and educational status on consumption. However, this relationship is clearest in high-income countries. Further research is required to understand better how circumstances in low-middle-income countries impact effects of policies. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  19. Recruitment to a university alcohol program: evaluation of social marketing theory and stepped approach model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gries, J A; Black, D R; Coster, D C

    1995-07-01

    This study was a first initiative to evaluate the application of social marketing theory (SMT) to increase attendance at an alcohol abuse education program for university residence hall students and to ascertain whether aggressive recruitment strategies are necessary as part of the stepped approach model (SAM) of service delivery. SMT and public health strategies that include focus groups, in-depth interviews, and intercept interviews were used to develop recruitment materials in a Test Hall. These new recruitment materials were introduced to the residents in the Treatment Hall (N = 727) and were compared to the Usual Care, Control Hall (N = 706) which received the recruitment materials normally provided to residents as well as to three Historical Halls separately and combined which had used the Usual Care recruitment materials in the past. The Treatment Hall percentage attendance was significantly superior (0.001 marketing literature expectations. The projections for campus-wide attendance for residence hall students were between 207 and 243 participants and for nationwide attendance, 36,900 +/- 8,185. The results suggest that the SMT and public health methods used are helpful in developing recruitment strategies and are an important initial step of the SAM and that a "minimal intervention" recruitment strategy is a cost-effective approach that can have a dramatic impact.

  20. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

    2009-02-06

    The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and

  1. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  2. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Pyo

    Full Text Available The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200 prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  3. Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    The Siemens market, like HP, used a fully computerized double auction market with a software product called FX developed by Kumo, Inc. (Ortner, 1998...such as non-farm payrolls , retail sales, levels of the Institute for Supply Management‘s manufacturing diffusion index, and initial unemployment

  4. Alcohol

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2003-01-01

    Alcohol abuse is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Alcohol abuse is responsible for 4 percent of global deaths and disability, nearly as much as tobacco and five times the burden of illicit drugs (WHO). In developing countries with low mortality, alcohol is the leading risk factor for males, causing 9.8 percent of years lost to death and disability. Alcohol abuse...

  5. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  6. Predicting problematic alcohol use with the DSM-5 alternative model of personality pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

    2016-01-01

    High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Predicting downturns in the US housing market: a Bayesian approach [Conference presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Gupta, R

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Models - VARs, BVARs and SBVARs Forecasting House Prices in the Twenty Largest US States Results Predicting the Downturns PREDICTING DOWNTURNS IN THE US HOUSING MARKET: A BAYESIAN APPROACH Rangan Gupta1 and Sonali Das2 1Associate Professor... (Economics), University of Pretoria 2Senior Researcher (Statistics), CSIR, Pretoria. SASA 2008 Gupta and Das Predicting downturns in US housing market Background and Motivation Models - VARs, BVARs and SBVARs Forecasting House Prices in the Twenty...

  8. Prediction of drug and alcohol abuse in hospitalized adolescents: comparisons by gender and substance type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Daniel F; Grilo, Carlos M

    2006-10-01

    The authors examined psychosocial correlates of drug and alcohol abuse in 462 hospitalized adolescents, and the extent to which these associations may be affected by gender or by substance type. Participants completed a battery of psychometrically-sound, self-report measures of psychological functioning, environmental stress, drug abuse, and alcohol abuse. Four multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the joint and independent predictors of drug abuse and alcohol abuse, for males and for females. Multiple regression analysis revealed that seven variables--age, depression, impulsivity, low self-esteem, delinquent predisposition, low peer insecurity, and history of child abuse--jointly predicted both drug and alcohol abuse, for both males and females. However, several differences were found with respect to which variables made independent contributions to the predictive models--with only delinquent predisposition making a significant independent contribution for all four conditions. We found distinct patterns of psychosocial predictor variables for drug and alcohol abuse, as well as distinct patterns for males and females. These results may reflect differing risk factors for drug abuse and alcohol abuse in adolescent psychiatric patients--and differing risk factors for males and females. Such differences have potential implications for prevention and treatment.

  9. Nature of events and alcohol-related content in marketing materials at a university freshers' fair: a summative content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, A; Fleming, K M; Szatkowski, L; Bains, M

    2017-12-15

    The transition to university is a potentially influential time upon students' drinking behaviour. This study explored the nature of activities and alcohol-related content in marketing materials from student-led societies and local businesses provided to students, at a university freshers' fair in the UK. All marketing materials handed out at the fair were collected across the 5-day event in September 2015. Written and visual content was analysed using a summative qualitative content analysis. Most student-led societies promoted social events they were hosting (n = 530), most of which took place in a drinking venue or referred to drinking (n = 335). Only four explicitly alcohol-free events were promoted. Student-led societies also promoted activities relating to their interest, e.g. sports training (n = 519), a small proportion of which had references to drinking and drinking venues (n = 54). Three societies provided promotional handouts from local bars or nightclubs. Local bars, pubs and nightclubs promoted events they hosted (n = 81) as well as alcoholic drink promotions (n = 79) and alcohol branded advertising (n = 22), albeit infrequently for the latter. In the first week of university, students are exposed to alcohol-related events, promotions and advertising, which may act as an incentive to participate in drinking. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  10. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264

  11. [The Collage Impression Scoring Scale (CIISS) may help predict sobriety for alcoholics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itoh, Mitsuru; Ishii, Takayoshi

    2009-08-01

    The Collage Impression Scoring Scale (CISS; Imamura, 2004) was used by 54 raters to score collages made by 24 alcoholics on admission to the hospital and at discharge. The CISS contains three factors: stability, expression and creativity. Comparisons using paired t-tests showed that the collages made at discharge had lower scores on the three CISS factors than the collages made on admission. The results for 11 alcoholics, who were followed for six months after discharge, showed that the scores for CISS factors for the abstinent group were lower than those for the relapsed drinking group. The abstinent group showed more anxiety than the relapsed drinking group. This result suggests that the abstinent alcoholics'anxieties were projected onto the collages because they were facing their internal problems more seriously. Thus the CISS was effective as a predictive index for alcoholics who maintain sobriety.

  12. Polygenic Scores Predict Alcohol Problems in an Independent Sample and Show Moderation by the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatore, Jessica E.; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C.; Evans, David M.; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J.; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M.

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems—derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)—predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07–0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes. PMID:24727307

  13. A 14-year retrospective maternal report of alcohol consumption in pregnancy predicts pregnancy and teen outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannigan, John H; Chiodo, Lisa M; Sokol, Robert J; Janisse, James; Ager, Joel W; Greenwald, Mark K; Delaney-Black, Virginia

    2010-01-01

    Detecting patterns of maternal drinking that place fetuses at risk for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) is critical to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but is challenging because information on antenatal drinking collected during pregnancy is often insufficient or lacking. Although retrospective assessments have been considered less favored by many researchers due to presumed poor reliability, this perception may be inaccurate because of reduced maternal denial and/or distortion. The present study hypothesized that fetal alcohol exposure, as assessed retrospectively during child adolescence, would be related significantly to prior measures of maternal drinking and would predict alcohol-related behavioral problems in teens better than antenatal measures of maternal alcohol consumption. Drinking was assessed during pregnancy, and retrospectively about the same pregnancy, at a 14-year follow-up in 288 African-American women using well-validated semistructured interviews. Regression analysis examined the predictive validity of both drinking assessments on pregnancy outcomes and on teacher-reported teen behavior outcomes. Retrospective maternal self-reported drinking assessed 14 years postpartum was significantly higher than antenatal reports of consumption. Retrospective report identified 10.8 times more women as risk drinkers (≥ one drink per day) than the antenatal report. Antenatal and retrospective reports were moderately correlated and both were correlated with the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test. Self-reported alcohol consumption during pregnancy based on retrospective report identified significantly more teens exposed prenatally to at-risk alcohol levels than antenatal, in-pregnancy reports. Retrospective report predicted more teen behavior problems (e.g., attention problems and externalizing behaviors) than the antenatal report. Antenatal report predicted younger gestational age at birth and retrospective report predicted smaller birth size

  14. Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

    2011-10-01

    The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

  15. Six-month changes in spirituality and religiousness in alcoholics predict drinking outcomes at nine months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Elizabeth A R; Krentzman, Amy R; Webb, Jon R; Brower, Kirk J

    2011-07-01

    Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self.

  16. Exploring college students' use of general and alcohol-related social media and their associations with alcohol-related behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors. Public and private university students (N = 637) participated November and December 2011 and April 2012. College students completed online surveys to measure their exposure to social and online media generally, as well as their alcohol-related digital media use and alcohol use. Use of social media related to alcohol marketing predicted alcohol consumption and engaging in risky behaviors, whereas the use of social media more generally did not. Students' use of alcohol-related social media-marketing content associates with their problem drinking. Results have implications for alcohol abuse reduction efforts targeted at college students and suggest the importance of considering social, cultural, and cognitive factors in campaign planning and design.

  17. Symptoms of posttraumatic stress predict craving among alcohol treatment seekers: results of a daily monitoring study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Tracy L; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A; Varra, Alethea A; Moore, Sally A; Kaysen, Debra

    2012-12-01

    Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) commonly co-occur. Craving for alcohol is a common aspect of AUD, with and without PTSD, and is one of the key predictors of continued problematic alcohol use among treatment seekers. The present study sought to investigate the self-medication hypothesis using daily Interactive Voice Response (IVR) reports to examine the relationships between PTSD symptomatology and both same-day and next-day alcohol craving. Twenty-nine individuals with an AUD (26 of whom screened positive for PTSD) entering AUD treatment provided daily IVR data for up to 28 days regarding their alcohol use, craving, and 7 symptoms of PTSD. Given the nested nature of daily data, generalized estimating equations using a negative binomial distribution and a log link function were used to test hypotheses. Results suggest that days with greater overall PTSD severity are associated with greater alcohol craving, and greater reports of startle and anger/irritability were particularly associated with same-day craving. The next-day results suggest that the combination of the 7 PTSD symptoms did not predict next-day craving. However, greater distress from nightmares the previous night, emotional numbing, and hypervigilance predicted greater next-day craving, while greater anger/irritability predicted lower next-day craving. These findings highlight the importance of assessing the relationship between specific symptoms of PTSD and alcohol cravings in order to increase our understanding of the functional interplay among them for theory building. Additionally, clinicians may be better able to refine treatment decisions to more efficiently break the cycle between PTSD-related distress and AUD symptoms. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  18. Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

    2015-05-01

    Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

  19. Can human rights standards help protect children and youth from the detrimental impact of alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Audrey R

    2017-01-01

    The alcohol industry in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region promotes demand for alcohol products actively through a number of channels, including advertising and sponsorship of sports and other events. This paper evaluates whether human rights instruments that Latin American countries have ratified can be used to limit children's exposure to alcohol advertising and promotion. A review was conducted of the text of, and interpretative documents related to, a series of international and regional human rights instruments ratified by most countries in the LAC region that enumerate the right to health. The Convention on the Rights of the Child has the most relevant provisions to protect children and youth from alcohol promotion and advertising. Related interpretive documents by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child affirm that corporations hold duties to respect and protect children's right to health. Human rights norms and law can be used to regulate or eliminate alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities in the Latin American region. The paper recommends developing a human rights based Framework Convention on Alcohol Control to provide guidance. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions

    OpenAIRE

    JS Armstrong; Philip D. Hutcherson

    2005-01-01

    Role -playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior re search, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p

  1. International codes and agreements to restrict the promotion of harmful products can hold lessons for the control of alcohol marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Jane; Lobstein, Tim; Godfrey, Fiona; Johns, Paula; Brookes, Chris; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims The 2011 UN Summit on Non-Communicable Disease failed to call for global action on alcohol marketing despite calls in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-20 to restrict or ban alcohol advertising. In this paper we ask what it might take to match the global approach to tobacco enshrined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and suggest that public health advocates can learn from the development of the FCTC and the Code of Marketing on infant formula milks and the recent recommendations on restricting food marketing to children. Methods Narrative review of qualitative accounts of the processes that created and monitor existing codes and treaties to restrict the marketing of consumer products, specifically breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco. Findings The development of treaties and codes for market restrictions include: (i) evidence of a public health crisis; (ii) the cost of inaction; (iii) civil society advocacy; (iv) the building of capacity; (v) the management of conflicting interests in policy development; and (vi) the need to consider monitoring and accountability to ensure compliance. Conclusion International public health treaties and codes provide an umbrella under which national governments can strengthen their own legislation, assisted by technical support from international agencies and non-governmental organizations. Three examples of international agreements, those for breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco, can provide lessons for the public health community to make progress on alcohol controls. Lessons include stronger alliances of advocates and health professionals and better tools and capacity to monitor and report current marketing practices and trends. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  2. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

    2005-02-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models

  3. Interactions between drinking motives and friends in predicting young adults' alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thrul, J.; Kuntsche, E.N.

    2016-01-01

    While drinking motives are well-established proximal predictors of alcohol use, less is known about their role in event-level drinking behavior. The present study examines whether the interaction between individuals' drinking motives and the number of friends present at a given moment can predict

  4. Predicting Alcohol Consumption: The Influences of Perceived Opposite-Sex Peer Expectancies and Drinking Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Debra K.; Gilbert, Brenda O.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the relationship between personal and perceived opposite-sex peer expectations and drinking behavior. As compared to themselves, participants believed that their opposite-sex best friend had greater expectations for the effects of alcohol. Perceived peer expectancies added to the prediction of self-reported drinking beyond that which is…

  5. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  6. Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu; Akagi, Fumio

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task because of the highly nonlinear nature of the financial time series. In this study, we apply an artificial neural network (ANN) that can map any nonlinear function without a prior assumption to predict the return of the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. (1) To improve the effectiveness of prediction algorithms, we propose a new set of input variables for ANN models. (2) To verify the prediction ability of the selected input variables, we predict returns for the Nikkei 225 index using the classical back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. (3) Global search techniques, i.e., a genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), are employed to improve the prediction accuracy of the ANN and overcome the local convergence problem of the BP algorithm. It is observed through empirical experiments that the selected input variables were effective to predict stock market returns. A hybrid approach based on GA and SA improve prediction accuracy significantly and outperform the traditional BP training algorithm.

  7. The commercial use of segmentation and predictive modeling techniques for database marketing in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, PC; Spring, PN; Hoekstra, JC; Leeflang, PSH

    Although the application of segmentation and predictive modeling is an important topic in the database marketing (DBM) literature, no study has yet investigated the extent of adoption of these techniques. We present the results of a Dutch survey involving 228 database marketing companies. We find

  8. Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.

  9. General and religious coping predict drinking outcomes for alcohol dependent adults in treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Rosemarie A; Ellingsen, Victor J; Tzilos, Golfo K; Rohsenow, Damaris J

    2015-04-01

    Religiosity is associated with improved treatment outcomes among adults with alcohol dependence; however, it is unknown whether religious coping predicts drinking outcomes above and beyond the effects of coping in general, and whether gender differences exist. We assessed 116 alcohol-dependent adults (53% women; mean age = 37, SD = 8.6) for use of religious coping, general coping, and alcohol use within 2 weeks of entering outpatient treatment, and again 6 months after treatment. Religious coping at 6 months predicted fewer heavy alcohol use days and fewer drinks per day. This relationship was no longer significant after controlling for general coping at 6 months. The relationship between the use of religious coping strategies and drinking outcomes is not independent of general coping. Coping skills training that includes religious coping skills, as one of several coping methods, may be useful for a subset of adults early in recovery. This novel, prospective study assessed the relationship between religious coping strategies, general coping, and treatment outcomes for alcohol-dependent adults in treatment with results suggesting that the use of religious coping as one of several coping methods may be useful for a subset of adults early in recovery. © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  10. Perceived sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies and behavior predict substance-related sexual revictimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B; Denardi, Kathleen A; Walker, Dave P

    2013-05-01

    Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

  12. Prediction of the solubility of selected pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols with a group contribution method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelczarska, Aleksandra; Ramjugernath, Deresh; Rarey, Jurgen; Domańska, Urszula

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The prediction of solubility of pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols was presented. ► Improved group contribution method UNIFAC was proposed for 42 binary mixtures. ► Infinite activity coefficients were used in a model. ► A semi-predictive model with one experimental point was proposed. ► This model qualitatively describes the temperature dependency of Pharms. -- Abstract: An improved group contribution approach using activity coefficients at infinite dilution, which has been proposed by our group, was used for the prediction of the solubility of selected pharmaceuticals in water and alcohols [B. Moller, Activity of complex multifunctional organic compounds in common solvents, PhD Thesis, Chemical Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2009]. The solubility of 16 different pharmaceuticals in water, ethanol and octan-1-ol was predicted over a fairly wide range of temperature with this group contribution model. The predicted values, along with values computed with the Schroeder-van Laar equation, are compared to experimental results published by us previously for 42 binary mixtures. The predicted solubility values were lower than those from the experiments for most of the mixtures. In order to improve the prediction method, a semi-predictive calculation using one experimental solubility value was implemented. This one point prediction has given acceptable results when comparison is made to experimental values

  13. When are they old enough to drink? Outcomes of an Australian social marketing intervention targeting alcohol initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra C; Andrews, Kelly; Francis, Kate L; Akram, Muhammad

    2018-01-04

    This paper reports on the evaluation of an Australian whole-of-community social marketing intervention targeting social norms, which aimed to reduce inflated perceptions of the prevalence of underage drinking and increase the age at which alcohol initiation is considered acceptable. A community-wide intervention was delivered in a single community over a period of 2 years, targeting adolescents, parents and community members. Pre-and post-intervention computer-assisted telephone interview surveys were conducted in the intervention and a matched comparison (control) community. A total of 417 respondents completed both surveys (215 in the intervention community and 202 in the control community). The intervention community saw an increase of 6 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable for young people to have a sip/taste of alcohol and 5 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable to have weak/watered down alcohol. Furthermore, there was a reduction in the perception of the prevalence of alcohol consumption by young people to a level consistent with actual underage drinking rates. In comparison, the control community saw no change in any of these variables. This study provides preliminary evidence that a whole-of-community social marketing intervention can change perceptions of the prevalence, and acceptability, of underage drinking. Given the central role of social norms in decisions regarding alcohol consumption, these changes have the potential to reduce parental supply and thus underage drinking. © 2018 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  14. Deep learning networks for stock market analysis and prediction : methodology, data representations, and case studies.

    OpenAIRE

    Chong, E.; Han, C.; Park, F.C.

    2017-01-01

    We offer a systematic analysis of the use of deep learning networks for stock market analysis and prediction. Its ability to extract features from a large set of raw data without relying on prior knowledge of predictors makes deep learning potentially attractive for stock market prediction at high frequencies. Deep learning algorithms vary considerably in the choice of network structure, activation function, and other model parameters, and their performance is known to depend heavily on the m...

  15. Dormancy Prediction Model in a Prepaid Predominant Mobile Market : A Customer Value Management Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Adeolu O. Dairo; Temitope Akinwumi

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have predicted customer churn in the mobile indutry especially the postpaid customer segment of the market. However, only few studies have been published on the prepaid segment that could be used and operationalised within the marketing team that are responsible for the management of incident of prepaid churn. This is the first identifiable literature where customer dormancy is predicted along the customer value segmentation. In th...

  16. Alcohol

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, H.F.; Tol, A. van

    2005-01-01

    Alcohol consumption affects overall mortality. Light to moderate alcohol consumption reduces the risk of coronary heart disease; epidemiological, physiological and genetic data show a causal relationship. Light to moderate drinking is also associated with a reduced risk of other vascular diseases

  17. The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

  18. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  19. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to describe concepts and assumptions of predictive marketing analytics in reference to decision making. In particular, we highlight issues pertaining to the importance of data and the modern approach to data analysis and processing with the purpose of solving real marketing problems that companies encounter in business. Methodology: In this paper authors provide two study cases showing how, and to what extent predictive marketing analytics work can be useful in practice e.g., investigation of the marketing environment. The two cases are based on organizations operating mainly on Web site domain. The fi rst part of this article, begins a discussion with the explanation of a general idea of predictive marketing analytics. The second part runs through opportunities it creates for companies in the process of building strong competitive advantage in the market. The paper article ends with a brief comparison of predictive analytics versus traditional marketing-mix analysis. Findings: Analytics play an extremely important role in the current process of business management based on planning, organizing, implementing and controlling marketing activities. Predictive analytics provides the actual and current picture of the external environment. They also explain what problems are faced with the company in business activities. Analytics tailor marketing solutions to the right time and place at minimum costs. In fact they control the effi ciency and simultaneously increases the effectiveness of the firm. Practical implications: Based on the study cases comparing two enterprises carrying business activities in different areas, one can say that predictive analytics has far more been embraces extensively than classical marketing-mix analyses. The predictive approach yields greater speed of data collection and analysis, stronger predictive accuracy, better obtained competitor data, and more transparent models where one can

  20. Interactions Between Drinking Motives and Friends in Predicting Young Adults? Alcohol Use

    OpenAIRE

    Thrul, Johannes; Kuntsche, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    While drinking motives are well-established proximal predictors of alcohol use, less is known about their role in event-level drinking behavior. The present study examines whether the interaction between individuals? drinking motives and the number of friends present at a given moment can predict alcohol consumption over the course of the evening. Using the Internet-based cell phone-optimized assessment technique (ICAT), 183 young adults (53.0 % female, mean age =23.1) in French-speaking Swit...

  1. The evolution of U.S. temperance movements since repeal: a comparison of two campaigns to control alcoholic beverage marketing, 1950s and 1980s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennock, Penny

    2005-01-01

    This paper compares the politics of a failed religious movement to ban alcohol advertising in the 1950s with the politics of a more secular, and partially successful, movement to regulate alcohol marketing in the 1970s and 1980s. Although the contexts of the two marketing control movements were quite different, the continuities were equally striking. Both employed arguments about youth, social order, and the power of mass media.

  2. Goal commitment predicts treatment outcome for adolescents with alcohol use disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Ohannessian, Christine McCauley; McKay, James R; Burke, Rebecca H; Flannery, Kaitlin

    2018-01-01

    Commitment to change is an innovative potential mediator and mechanism of behavior change (MOBC) that has not been examined in adolescents with substance use disorders (SUD). The Adolescent Substance Abuse Goal Commitment (ASAGC) questionnaire is a reliable and valid 2-scale measure developed to assess the adolescent's commitment to either abstinence or harm reduction (HR) that includes consumption reduction as a stated treatment goal. The objective of this study was to examine the ASAGC's ability to predict alcohol use treatment outcome. During sessions three and nine of a 10-week treatment program, therapists completed the ASAGC for 170 adolescents 13-18years of age with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Drinking behaviors were assessed during and after a continued-care phase until 12-month from study onset. Analysis of Variance results indicated that adolescents who reported no alcohol use had significantly higher scores on the commitment to abstinence scale than adolescents who reported alcohol use. None of the ANOVA models were significant for commitment to HR. When treatment outcome was examined, commitment to abstinence consistently predicted number of drinking days, number of heavy drinking days, and the maximum number of drinks post-treatment. In contrast, commitment to HR did not predict any of the drinking outcomes. These results suggest that the more adolescents were committed to abstinence during treatment, the less they used and abused alcohol after treatment completion. In addition to the ASAGC's ability to differentiate between commitment to abstinence and commitment to HR, study findings demonstrate that goal commitment consistently predicts AUD treatment outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Predictive Factors of Hospitalization and Dialysis Requirement in Alcohol Poisoning; a Cross-Sectional Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Tagizadieh

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Alcohol abuse is one of the health problems that all societies have involved with. Although in Iran the percent of alcohol consuming due to social and cultural preventions is lesser that other countries, its outcome and predictive factors are not accessible. Thus, this study was designed with the aim of determining the consequences of alcohol consuming and finding its effective factors in Tabriz. Method: This cross-sectional study has been done through September 2013 to July 2014 in Sina Hospital, Tabriz, Iran. All individuals with alcohol poisoning referred to the emergency department were included in the study. Demographic and clinical factors of patients, laboratory tests, dialysis and hospitalization in hospital wards were evaluated. Finally, independent effective factors for dialysis and hospitalization were assessed by using multivariate logistic regression. Results: At the end, 81(91.4% male patients with the mean age of 27.9±10.4 years were entered to the study. Ten (12.3% patients needed dialysis and 34 (42.0% were hospitalized. Increasing the serum creatinine level (OR-1.6; 95% Cl: 1.004-2.4; p-0.048 and time interval between consumption until referring to the emergency (OR-1.1; 95% Cl: 1.03-1.15; p-0.004 were the independent predictive factors of dialysis. Also, predictive agents of hospitalization included smoking (OR-3.4; 95% Cl: 1.6-5.5; p-0.01 and need to do dialysis (OR-7.9; 95% Cl: 5.4-10.5; p<0.001. Conclusion: In the present project 12.3% of patients needed dialysis. Increasing the serum creatinine and time interval between alcohol consuming until referring to the emergency were the most important predictive factors. In addition, the probability of hospitalization for smoking and dialyzed poisoned persons in hospital wards was more than other patients.

  4. Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. McMillan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.

  5. Predicting the Market Potential Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halmet Bradosti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this analysis is to forecast a mini-market sales volume for the period of twelve months starting August 2015 to August 2016. The study is based on the monthly sales in Iraqi Dinar for a private local mini-market for the month of April 2014 to July 2015. As revealed on the graph and of course if the stagnant economic condition continues, the trend of future sales is down-warding. Based on time series analysis, the business may continue to operate and generate small revenues until August 2016. However, due to low sales volume, low profit margin and operating expenses, the revenues may not be adequate enough to produce positive net income and the business may not be able to operate afterward. The principal question rose from this is the forecasting sales in the region will be difficult where the business cycle so dynamic and revolutionary due to systematic risks and unforeseeable future.

  6. Can We Predict the Winner in a Market with Network Effects? Competition in Cryptocurrency Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Gandal

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyze how network effects affect competition in the nascent cryptocurrency market. We do so by examining early dynamics of exchange rates among different cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin essentially dominates this market, our data suggest no evidence of a winner-take-all effect early in the market. Indeed, for a relatively long period, a few other cryptocurrencies competing with Bitcoin (the early industry leader appreciated much more quickly than Bitcoin. The data in this period are consistent with the use of cryptocurrencies as financial assets (popularized by Bitcoin, and not consistent with winner-take-all dynamics. Toward the end of our sample, however, things change dramatically. Bitcoin appreciates against the USD, while other currencies depreciate against the USD. The data in this period are consistent with strong network effects and winner-take-all dynamics. This trend continues at the time of writing.

  7. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

    2005-02-08

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

  8. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foxcroft David R

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between

  9. Alcohol

    OpenAIRE

    Philip J. Cook; Michael J. Moore

    1999-01-01

    Excess drinking is associated with lost productivity, accidents, disability, early death, crime, neglect of family responsibilities, and personality deterioration. These and related concerns have justified special restrictions on alcoholic-beverage commerce and consumption. The nature and extent of government involvement in this arena vary widely over time and place, and are often controversial. Economists have contributed to the evaluation of alcohol policy through empirical work on the effe...

  10. Working Memory Ability Predicts Trajectories of Early Alcohol Use in Adolescents: The Mediational Role of Impulsivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khurana, Atika; Romer, Dan; Betancourt, Laura M.; Brodsky, Nancy L.; Giannetta, Joan M.; Hurt, Hallam

    2012-01-01

    Aims 1) To evaluate the role of pre-existing weakness in working memory ability (WM) as a risk factor for early alcohol use as mediated by different forms of impulsivity. 2) To assess the adverse effects of progressive alcohol use on variations in WM over time. Design, Setting and Participants A community sample of 358 adolescents [48% males, Meanage(baseline) = 11.4± 0.87 years] from a longitudinal cohort design, assessed annually over four consecutive years with less than 6% attrition. Measurements Repeated assessments were conducted for the following key variables: WM (based on performance on four separate tasks), frequency of alcohol use (AU), and three forms of impulsivity, namely sensation seeking (SS), acting-without-thinking (AWT) and delay discounting (DD). Latent growth curve modeling procedures were used to identify individual trajectories of change for all key variables. Findings Weakness in WM (at baseline) significantly predicted both concurrent alcohol use and increased frequency of use over the four waves (p memory (WM) rather than a cause of it. Efforts to reduce early alcohol use should consider the distinct roles of different impulsivity dimensions, in addition to WM, as potential targets of intervention. PMID:23033972

  11. Cigarette smoking initiation during college predicts future alcohol involvement: a matched-samples study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Mark G; Doran, Neal M; Edland, Steven D; Schweizer, C Amanda; Wall, Tamaral L

    2013-11-01

    Little is known about the relationship between cigarette smoking initiation and subsequent alcohol involvement. To address this question, the present study compared alcohol use between students who initiated smoking during college and a matched sample of never-smoking students. We hypothesized greater increases in alcohol involvement among smoking initiators, mediated by exposure to cigarette use situations. Included in the present study were 104 Chinese American and Korean American undergraduates who at baseline (freshman year) reported never having smoked a cigarette. Subjects were drawn from 433 participants in a naturalistic longitudinal study of tobacco use who were assessed annually each year in college. Cigarette smoking status was assessed annually as part of a structured interview. Initiators and never-smokers were matched on gender, ethnicity, baseline alcohol use, parental smoking status, and behavioral undercontrol. As predicted, participants who initiated smoking during college reported significantly greater increases in the number of past-30-day total drinks consumed (p involvement. Part of this risk is explained by environmental contextual factors, specifically exposure to situations involving other smokers that also may result in greater exposure to alcohol use.

  12. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. What We Fund - Alcohol

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    NCDP

    national and international by ... Marketing restrictions, such as. Reducing availability of retailed alcohol. Bans on alcohol advertizing, ... relationships between alcohol consumption and household poverty (e.g. the opportunity costs of alcohol).

  14. DATA MINING TWITTER TO PREDICT STOCK MARKET MOVEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim PECIONCHIN

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we apply sentiment analysis of Twitter data from July through December, 2013 to find correlation between users’ sentiments and NASDAQ closing price and trading volume. Our analysis is based on the Affective Norms for English Words (ANEW. We propose a novel way of determining weighted mood level based on PageRank algorithm. We find that sentiment data is Granger-causal to financial market performance with high degree of significance. “Happy” and “sad” sentiment variables’ lags are strongly correlated with closing price and “excited” and “calm” lags are strongly correlated with trading volume.

  15. Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vries, A; Feleke, S

    2008-12-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not

  16. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  17. Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  19. Use of marketing to disseminate brief alcohol intervention to general practitioners: promoting health care interventions to health promoters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F

    2000-11-01

    Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group.

  20. Negative Affect-Associated USV Acoustic Characteristics Predict Future Excessive Alcohol Drinking and Alcohol Avoidance in Male P and NP Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reno, James M; Thakore, Neha; Cormack, Lawrence K; Schallert, Timothy; Bell, Richard L; Maddox, W Todd; Duvauchelle, Christine L

    2017-04-01

    Negative emotional status and adverse emotional events increase vulnerability to alcohol abuse. Ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) emitted by rats are a well-established model of emotional status that can reflect positive or negative affective responses in real time. Most USV studies assess counts, yet each USV is a multidimensional data point characterized by several acoustic characteristics that may provide insight into the neurocircuitry underlying emotional response. USVs emitted from selectively bred alcohol-naïve and alcohol-experienced alcohol-preferring and nonpreferring rats (P and NP rats) were recorded during 4-hour sessions on alternating days over 4 weeks. Linear mixed modeling (LMM) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were applied to USV acoustic characteristics (e.g., frequency, duration, power, and bandwidth) of negative affect (22 to 28 kilohertz [kHz])- and positive (50 to 55 kHz) affect-related USVs. Hundred percent separation between alcohol-naïve P and NP rats was achieved through a linear combination (produced by LDA) of USV acoustic characteristics of 22- to 28-kHz USVs, whereas poor separation (36.5%) was observed for 50- to 55-kHz USVs. 22- to 28-kHz LDA separation was high (87%) between alcohol-experienced P and NP rats, but was poor for 50- to 55-kHz USVs (57.3%). USV mean frequency and duration were the highest weighted characteristics in both the naïve and experienced 22- to 28-kHz LDA representations suggesting that alcohol experience does not alter the representations. LMM analyses of 22- to 28-kHz USV acoustic characteristics matched the LDA results. Poor LDA separation was observed between alcohol-naïve and alcohol-experienced P rats for both 22- to 28-kHz and 50- to 55-kHz USVs. Advanced statistical analysis of negative affect-associated USV data predicts future behaviors of excessive alcohol drinking and alcohol avoidance in selectively bred rats. USV characteristics across rat lines reveal affect-related motivation to

  1. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  2. Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871

  3. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Bordino

    Full Text Available We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  4. If you feed them, will they come? The use of social marketing to increase interest in attending a college alcohol program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Rebekka S; Kilmer, Jason R; Larimer, Mary E

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior.

  5. Targeted intervention: Computational approaches to elucidate and predict relapse in alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinz, Andreas; Deserno, Lorenz; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Smolka, Michael N; Beck, Anne; Schlagenhauf, Florian

    2017-05-01

    Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and addiction in general is characterized by failures of choice resulting in repeated drug intake despite severe negative consequences. Behavioral change is hard to accomplish and relapse after detoxification is common and can be promoted by consumption of small amounts of alcohol as well as exposure to alcohol-associated cues or stress. While those environmental factors contributing to relapse have long been identified, the underlying psychological and neurobiological mechanism on which those factors act are to date incompletely understood. Based on the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse, animal experiments showed that drug, cue and stress exposure affect Pavlovian and instrumental learning processes, which can increase salience of drug cues and promote habitual drug intake. In humans, computational approaches can help to quantify changes in key learning mechanisms during the development and maintenance of alcohol dependence, e.g. by using sequential decision making in combination with computational modeling to elucidate individual differences in model-free versus more complex, model-based learning strategies and their neurobiological correlates such as prediction error signaling in fronto-striatal circuits. Computational models can also help to explain how alcohol-associated cues trigger relapse: mechanisms such as Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer can quantify to which degree Pavlovian conditioned stimuli can facilitate approach behavior including alcohol seeking and intake. By using generative models of behavioral and neural data, computational approaches can help to quantify individual differences in psychophysiological mechanisms that underlie the development and maintenance of AUD and thus promote targeted intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Looking into the glass: glassware as an alcohol marketing tool, and the implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stead, Martine; Angus, Kathryn; Macdonald, Laura; Bauld, Linda

    2014-01-01

    To examine how glassware functions as a marketing tool. Content analysis of trade journals. Glassware is used as an integral part of marketing activity to recruit customers, revive brands, build profits and increase consumption. Glassware should be subject to the same control as other forms of marketing. Glasses could be re-engineered to promote safer drinking.

  7. Factors Predictive of Alcohol Consumption among Elderly People in a Rural Community: A Case Study in Phayao Province Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hongthong, D.; Wongchaiya, P.; Somrongthong, R.; Kumar, R.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Alcohol consumption is recognized as a public health issue. Study objectives were to identify factors predictive of alcohol consumption among elderly people in Phayao province Thailand, where there was high prevalence of alcohol consumption. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. Four hundred elderly people participated in a survey. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the factors predictive of alcohol consumption among the study subjects. Results: One thirds of elderly (31.7 percent) had consumed alcohol in their lifetime, and (15.7 percent) of them were current drinkers. Following univariate analysis, seven factors included gender, working, sickness, smoking, quality of life (QOL), daily activities and economic recession were identified as being significantly associated with drinking (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed four factors to be predictive of alcohol among elderly people: gender (OR=6.02, 95 percent CI=3.58-10.13), smoking (OR=4.34, 95 percent CI=2.57-7.34), economic recession (OR=2.79, 95 percent, CI=1.66-4.71), and QOL (OR=1.86, 95 percent, CI=1.09-3.16). Conclusion: Gender (male) and smoking were strongly predictive factors of elderly alcohol consumption. Hence, an effort to reduce alcohol consumption should be placed on male elderly and those who smoke. (author)

  8. Predicting Post-Treatment-Initiation Alcohol Use among Patients with Severe Mental Illness and Alcohol Use Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.

    2009-01-01

    Few investigators studying alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of posttreatment alcohol outcomes. In the present study, a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model was used to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post-treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of…

  9. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  10. Methodology for predicting market transformation due to implementation of energy efficiency standards and labels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlia, T.M.I.

    2004-01-01

    There are many papers that have been published on energy efficiency standards and labels. However, a very limited number of articles on the subject have discussed the transformation of appliance energy efficiency in the market after the programs are implemented. This paper is an attempt to investigate the market transformation due to implementation of minimum energy efficiency standards and energy labels. Even though the paper only investigates room air conditioners as a case study, the method is also applicable for predicting market transformation for other household electrical appliances

  11. Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees: The PredictAL Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I.; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Background Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. Results 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse. PMID:21853028

  12. A rapid situation assessment of the market for surrogate and illegal alcohols in Tallinn, Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pärna, Kersti; Lang, Katrin; Raju, Kadi; Väli, Marika; McKee, Martin

    2007-01-01

    To understand the phenomenon of consumption of surrogate and illegal alcohols in Tallinn, capital of Estonia. This study, conducted in Tallinn in May 2006, used rapid situation assessment. Interviews with key informants in relevant settings such as emergency departments of hospitals, accommodation for the homeless, police etc. (n = 22), with alcohol abusers (n = 33), natural observations of surrogate sale and consumption venues (n = 46), and tracking of trade data were carried out. Key informants confirmed that consumption of illegal and surrogate alcohols are widely used by alcohol abusers, a finding confirmed by the alcohol abusers. Availability of surrogates varied by area of the city, mainly sold from street kiosks. Illegally produced spirits were also easily available. Sales of surrogates appear to have increased in recent years. A range of alcohol-containing substances that appear to be easily available at low cost, and that have high concentration of ethanol or contaminants known to be toxic, were identified in Tallinn. Alcohol policies in Estonia should address the consumption and availability of these substances.

  13. Depressive and Anxiety Disorders Predicting First Incidence of Alcohol Use Disorders: Results of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, Lynn; Vogelzangs, Nicole; van den Brink, Wim; Smit, Johannes H.; Veltman, Dick J.; Beekman, Aartjan T. F.; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Depressive and anxiety disorders may predict first incidence of alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence. This study aims to identify those persons who are at an increased risk of developing alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence by considering the heterogeneity of depressive and anxiety

  14. Depressive and anxiety disorders predicting first incidence of alcohol use disorders: results of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boschloo, L.; Vogelzangs, N.; van den Brink, W.; Smit, J.H.; Veltman, D.J.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Depressive and anxiety disorders may predict first incidence of alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence. This study aims to identify those persons who are at an increased risk of developing alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence by considering the heterogeneity of depressive and anxiety

  15. Predictive Capacity of Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R) in alcohol use disorder outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia

    2016-06-14

    to investigate the ability to predict the outcome of alcohol use disorders through Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R). this is a prospective study consisting of 237 outpatients with alcohol use disorders who underwent follow-up treatment for 6 months and whose personality traits were studied using TCI-R. At the end of that period, the scores of each TCI-R trait were analyzed in terms of those who remained in treatment and those who dropped out. The whole group scored highly in novelty seeking (NS) and harm avoidance (HA) and produced low scores in self-directedness (SD), these last traits are considered prominent. The drop-out group scored significantly (p=.004) higher in novelty seeking (NS) than the follow-up group. Also, when the score was higher than the 67 percentile the likelihood of abandoning the treatment was 1.07 times higher. Cloninger's temperament and character inventory is a good instrument to predict the outcome of treatment of patients with alcohol use disorders and the novelty seeking (NS) dimension is strongly related to therapeutic drop-out.

  16. Friends' Alcohol-Related Social Networking Site Activity Predicts Escalations in Adolescent Drinking: Mediation by Peer Norms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesi, Jacqueline; Rothenberg, W Andrew; Hussong, Andrea M; Jackson, Kristina M

    2017-06-01

    Adolescents' increased use of social networking sites (SNS) coincides with a developmental period of heightened risk for alcohol use initiation. However, little is known regarding associations between adolescents' SNS use and drinking initiation nor the mechanisms of this association. This study examined longitudinal associations among adolescents' exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS postings, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms, and initiation of drinking behaviors. Participants were 658 high-school students who reported on posting of alcohol-related SNS content by self and friends, alcohol-related injunctive norms, and other developmental risk factors for alcohol use at two time points, 1 year apart. Participants also reported on initiation of three drinking behaviors: consuming a full drink, becoming drunk, and heavy episodic drinking (three or more drinks per occasion). Probit regression analyses were used to predict initiation of drinking behaviors from exposure to alcohol-related SNS content. Path analyses examined mediation of this association by peer injunctive norms. Exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS content predicted adolescents' initiation of drinking and heavy episodic drinking 1 year later, controlling for demographic and known developmental risk factors for alcohol use (i.e., parental monitoring and peer orientation). In addition, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms statistically mediated the relationship between alcohol-related SNS exposure and each drinking milestone. Results suggest that social media plays a unique role in contributing to peer influence processes surrounding alcohol use and highlight the need for future investigative and preventive efforts to account for adolescents' changing social environments. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Handgrip dynamometry: a surrogate marker of malnutrition to predict the prognosis in alcoholic liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaikwad, Nitin Rangrao; Gupta, Sudhir Jagdishprasad; Samarth, Amol Rajendra; Sankalecha, Tushar Hiralal

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the utility of handgrip dynamometry (HGD) in predicting short term mortality and complications in alcoholic liver disease. Patients with alcoholic liver disease were included and nutritional assessment was done using the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), HGD and other conventional parameters. Mortality rates and complications were compared to nutritional status. 80 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 43.06±10.03 years. 69 patients survived and 11 patients died within the 3 month study duration. Handgrip strength (HGS) was higher in SGA A (28.76±5.48 kg) than SGA B (22.43±4.95 kg) and SGA C (16.78±3.83 kg) (P=<0.001). Number of complications including spontaneous bacterial Peritonitis, gastrointestinal bleeding and encephalopathy in SGA C group were 66.66%, in SGA B 20.75% and SGA A 10%. Mean HGS was significantly higher in the survivors (24.23±5.86) compared to non-survivors (18.04±4.82) (P=0.0011). There was a strong negative correlation between the HGS and Child-Pugh score (P=<0.0012). Multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the risk factors for death showed handgrip to be in the suggestive significance range (P=0.072). The sensitivity of HGS was 88.41% in predicting short term mortality. HGS correlates with Child-Pugh score in predicting short term mortality. HGD is a simple, inexpensive and sensitive tool for assessing the nutritional status in alcoholic liver disease and can reliably predict its complications and survival.

  18. Prediction of Thermal Properties and Effect of OH Substituent for Poly(vinyl alcohol)s by Molecular Dynamics Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchiya, Yooko; Yoshii, Noriyuki; Iwatsubo, Tetsushiro

    2004-08-01

    Since heat storage technology contributes greatly to the effective use of energy, we are attempting to develop latent heat storage materials. If computer simulations enable the estimation of material properties prior to experiments, they will provide us with very effective tools for the development of new materials. We use molecular dynamics calculations to predict the melting points and latent heats of fusion, which are crucial thermal properties for evaluating the suitability of heat-storage materials. As the object of calculation, poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) was chosen, because polymer materials are effective in that they can be made to cover all temperature ranges by changing the molecular weight. The melting points were determined from the volume change, and the latent heats of fusion were determined from the internal energy. As for these calculations, it was ascertained that these thermal properties were suitable values in comparison with the results of actual calorimetry. From the comparative calculation of the polymer consistent force field (PCFF) and optimized potentials for liquid simulations (OPLS) force field, it was shown that the intermolecular potential could be simplified. Moreover, the stability of the structural isomer of PVA and the state of the hydrogen bond were evaluated, because a strong intermolecular bond leads to structural stability and a high melting temperature.

  19. Prediction Markets: A Review with an Experimentally Based Recommendation for Navy Force-shaping Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    78 2. Organizational / Cultural Barriers...................................................80 C. WHEN NOT TO USE PREDICTION...served as a panelist on the McKinsey prediction market roundtable. At the time, he was the Vice President and General Manager of Best Buy‘s Geek Squad...and cultural barriers by quickly aggregating information, and they can do so with high quality. However, there can be considerable cost and effort

  20. Do labour market status transitions predict changes in psychological well-being?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Ellen; Bartley, Mel; Shelton, Nicola; Sacker, Amanda

    2013-09-01

    The objective of this study was to establish the direction of causality in the relationship between labour market status and psychological well-being by investigating how transitions between secure employment, insecure employment, unemployment, permanent sickness and other economic inactivity predict changes in psychological well-being over a 16-year period. This study used data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2007). Psychological well-being was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Fixed effects models were utilised to investigate how transitions between labour market statuses predicted GHQ-12 score, adjusting for current labour market status and a range of covariates. After taking account of the contemporaneous effects of joblessness on psychological well-being, and the impact of a range of confounding factors, experiencing a transition from employment to joblessness was significantly predictive of poorer psychological well-being. Transitions into employment were not found to have equal and opposite effects: the positive effects of moving into work from unemployment were not as large as the negative effects of job loss. Transitions between secure and insecure employment did not independently predict changes in psychological well-being. A causal relationship between labour market status and psychological well-being is indicated.

  1. A short fuse after alcohol: implicit power associations predict aggressiveness after alcohol consumption in young heavy drinkers with limited executive control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiers, R.W.; Beckers, L.; Houben, K.; Hofmann, W.

    2009-01-01

    This study tested a hypothesis derived from recent dual-process models, which conceptualize behavior as the interplay of associative and Executive Control (EC) processes. This general logic was applied here to the phenomenon of aggressiveness after drinking alcohol. Specifically, we predicted that

  2. Homelessness predicts attrition but not alcohol abstinence in outpatients experiencing co-occurring alcohol dependence and serious mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leickly, Emily; Skalisky, Jordan; Oluwoye, Oladunni; McPherson, Sterling M; Srebnik, Debra; Roll, John M; Ries, Richard K; McDonell, Michael G

    2017-11-21

    Adults experiencing homelessness and serious mental illnesses (SMI) are at an increased risk of poor mental health and treatment outcomes compared with stably housed adults with SMI. The additional issue of alcohol misuse further complicates the difficulties of those living with homelessness and SMI. In this secondary data analysis, the authors investigated the impact of homelessness on attrition and alcohol use in a contingency management (CM) intervention that rewarded alcohol abstinence in outpatients with SMI. The associations between housing status and attrition and alcohol abstinence during treatment, as assessed by ethyl glucuronide (EtG) urine tests, were evaluated in 79 adults diagnosed with alcohol dependence and SMI. Thirty-nine percent (n = 31) of participants reported being homeless at baseline. Individuals who were homeless were more likely to drop out of CM (n = 10, 62.5%) than those who were housed (n = 4, 16.7%), χ 2 (1) = 8.86, P < .05. Homelessness was not associated with attrition in the noncontingent control group. Accounting for treatment group and prerandomization EtG levels, neither the effect of housing status nor the interaction of housing status and group were associated with EtG-assessed alcohol abstinence during treatment. Individuals experiencing homelessness and co-occurring alcohol dependence and SMI receiving CM had higher rates of attrition, relative to those who were housed. Homelessness was not associated with differences in biologically assessed alcohol abstinence.

  3. Polygenic Risk Score Prediction of Alcohol Dependence Symptoms Across Population-Based and Clinically Ascertained Samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Jeanne E; Salvatore, Jessica E; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C; Hickman, Matthew; Kendler, Kenneth S; Macleod, John; Latvala, Antti; Loukola, Anu; Kaprio, Jaakko; Rose, Richard J; Chan, Grace; Hesselbrock, Victor; Webb, Bradley T; Adkins, Amy; Bigdeli, Tim B; Riley, Brien P; Dick, Danielle M

    2018-03-01

    Despite consistent evidence of the heritability of alcohol use disorders (AUDs), few specific genes with an etiological role have been identified. It is likely that AUDs are highly polygenic; however, the etiological pathways and genetic variants involved may differ between populations. The aim of this study was thus to evaluate whether aggregate genetic risk for AUDs differed between clinically ascertained and population-based epidemiological samples. Four independent samples were obtained: 2 from unselected birth cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children [ALSPAC], N = 4,304; FinnTwin12 [FT12], N = 1,135) and 2 from families densely affected with AUDs, identified from treatment-seeking patients (Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism, N = 2,097; Irish Affected Sib Pair Study of Alcohol Dependence, N = 706). AUD symptoms were assessed with clinical interviews, and participants of European ancestry were genotyped. Genomewide association was conducted separately in each sample, and the resulting association weights were used to create polygenic risk scores in each of the other samples (12 total discovery-validation pairs), and from meta-analyses within sample type. We then tested how well these aggregate genetic scores predicted AUD outcomes within and across sample types. Polygenic scores derived from 1 population-based sample (ALSPAC) significantly predicted AUD symptoms in another population-based sample (FT12), but not in either clinically ascertained sample. Trend-level associations (uncorrected p < 0.05) were found for polygenic score predictions within sample types but no or negative predictions across sample types. Polygenic scores accounted for 0 to 1% of the variance in AUD symptoms. Though preliminary, these results provide suggestive evidence of differences in the genetic etiology of AUDs based on sample characteristics such as treatment-seeking status, which may index other important clinical or demographic factors

  4. Venous malformations: MR imaging features that predict skin burns after percutaneous alcohol embolization procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayad, Laura M.; Hazirolan, Tuncay; Carrino, John A.; Bluemke, David A.; Mitchell, Sally

    2008-01-01

    To examine the value of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for predicting the occurrence of skin burns in patients with venous malformations who undergo percutaneous alcohol embolization was the objective of the study. Pre-procedural MR imaging at 1.5 T from 40 patients with venous malformations who had undergone percutaneous alcohol embolization was retrospectively reviewed by two observers for these features: anatomic location, definition (well-defined or ill-defined), and the presence of skin, subcutaneous tissue, muscle, tendon, bone, joint, and deep venous system involvement. One observer recorded the length of skin involvement and volume of the malformation. Univariate and multivariate analysis tests were used to determine whether an association between the occurrence of skin burns and MR imaging features existed. The anatomic locations of the venous malformations were the lower extremity (20 out of 40), upper extremity (11 out of 40), trunk (four out of 40), head/neck (three out of 40) and pelvis (two out of 40). Of the 40 subjects, 15% (six out of 40) experienced skin burns. There was a significant association between the absence of muscle involvement (p=0.0198) as well as the length of skin involvement (p=0.027), with the occurrence of skin burns. Malformation size and all other features were not significantly associated with skin burns. Skin burns in patients with venous malformations treated with alcohol embolization are associated with the length of skin involvement and with the absence of deeper tissue involvement, as depicted on MR imaging. (orig.)

  5. It is pleasant and heavy: convergence of visual contents in tobacco, alcohol and food marketing in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viacava, Keitiline R; Weydmann, Gibson J; de Vasconcelos, Mailton F; Jaboinski, Juliana; Batista, Graziele D; de Almeida, Rosa Maria M; Bizarro, Lisiane

    2016-09-01

    The tactical use of visuoperceptual content in marketing may encourage impulsive consumption of unhealthy products. In this study, the application of visuoperceptual content was compared in advertisements used by industries of tobacco, alcohol and food. The aim was to ascertain whether similarities exist in the strategies used as variables for the selection of commercial stimuli, such as color, position and size. Scion Image and Corel Draw Graphics Suite software were used to analyze the content of a non-probabilistic sample of advertising images (N = 150). Differences were identified in the use of the colors green (p = 0.04) and red (p = 0.01), but not in the use of the color blue (p = 0.64), suggesting that induction of feelings of pleasantness resulting from the use of the color blue may be associated with the advertising in the alcohol and tobacco industries. Regarding the position of the commercial stimuli, a predominance of the use of quadrants 'C' (p = 0.00) and 'D' (p = 0.01) was found in all three industries, indicating a similar use of areas perceived as being 'heavier'. As to the size, 78% of advertisements placed the commercial stimuli within a range of 0-25% of the total image. The results showed some similarities in the use of visuoperceptual content in advertisements for tobacco, alcohol and food, especially between tobacco and alcohol. The article offers a convergence analysis of these three industries altogether, providing additional subsidies for the formulation of protection policies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Social marketing and community mobilisation to reduce underage alcohol consumption in Australia: A cluster randomised community trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Bosco Charles; Williams, Joanne; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Osborn, Amber; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Leslie, Evie; Patton, George; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Toumbourou, John W

    2018-03-02

    In many countries adolescent alcohol use is a major health problem. To supplement national policies, it is important to trial community interventions as a potential strategy to prevent adolescent alcohol use. This study evaluated a multicomponent community intervention that included community mobilisation, social marketing, and the monitoring of alcohol sales to minors. Evaluation was a clustered randomised trial design with 14 intervention and 14 control communities. Prior to randomisation, communities were matched on socioeconomic status and location. Intervention communities were not blinded. 3545 Year 8 students (M = 12 years) were surveyed at baseline from 75 schools; 3377 students were surveyed post intervention in 2013 from 54 schools. It was hypothesised that the primary outcome, individual alcohol consumption in last 30 days, after the intervention would be 15% lower in intervention communities. Secondary outcomes were consumption in the past year and intention not to drink before age 18. The intervention communities showed larger relative reductions compared to the controls in last 30-day consumption and past year (10%), but not significantly different. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the intervention community (63%), compared to the controls (71%), reported intending to drink before 18 years old. Subgroup analysis identified regional and state differences for some secondary measures. Intervention assignment was associated with lower adolescent intention to drink before the age of 18. However, more intensive and longer-term intervention may be required to measure significant differences in behaviour change. ACTRN12612000384853. Rowland B, Toumbourou JW, Osborn A, et al. BMJ Open 2013;3:e002423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002423? Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in the WHO African Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Shield, Kevin; Kraicer-Melamed, Hannah; Ferreira-Borges, Carina; Rehm, Jürgen

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region, by country. First, a comprehensive systematic literature search was performed to identify all published and unpublished studies. Then, several meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted to estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population for countries in the WHO African Region with two or more studies available. Lastly, for countries with less than two studies or no known data predictions were obtained using regression modelling. The estimated prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population ranged from 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-2.8%; Equatorial Guinea) to 12.6% (95% CI: 9.9-15.4%; Cameroon) in Central Africa, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3%; Seychelles) to 20.5% (95% CI: 16.4-24.7%; Uganda) in Eastern Africa, 5.7% (95% CI: 4.4-7.1%; Botswana) to 14.2% (95% CI: 11.1-17.3%; Namibia) in Southern Africa, 6.6% (95% CI: 5.0-8.3%; Mauritania) to 14.8% (95% CI: 11.6-17.9%; Sierra Leone) in Western Africa, and 4.3% (95% CI: 3.2-5.3%; Algeria) in Northern Africa. The high prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy in some African countries calls for educational campaigns, screening and targeted interventions for women of childbearing age. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  9. Mixed price and load forecasting of electricity markets by a new iterative prediction method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Daraeepour, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Load and price forecasting are the two key issues for the participants of current electricity markets. However, load and price of electricity markets have complex characteristics such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and multiple seasonality, to name a few (usually, more volatility is seen in the behavior of electricity price signal). For these reasons, much research has been devoted to load and price forecast, especially in the recent years. However, previous research works in the area separately predict load and price signals. In this paper, a mixed model for load and price forecasting is presented, which can consider interactions of these two forecast processes. The mixed model is based on an iterative neural network based prediction technique. It is shown that the proposed model can present lower forecast errors for both load and price compared with the previous separate frameworks. Another advantage of the mixed model is that all required forecast features (from load or price) are predicted within the model without assuming known values for these features. So, the proposed model can better be adapted to real conditions of an electricity market. The forecast accuracy of the proposed mixed method is evaluated by means of real data from the New York and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent load and price forecast techniques. (author)

  10. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  11. Gender, history of alcohol use and number of drinks consumed predict craving among drinkers in a field setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Anne M; Celio, Mark A; Lisman, Stephen A; Spear, Linda P

    2014-01-01

    To the extent that craving serves to compel excessive drinking, it would be important to predict the intensity of an individual's craving over the course of a drinking episode. Previous research indicates that regular alcohol use (measured by the AUDIT) and the number of drinks individuals have already consumed that evening independently predict craving to drink (Schoenmakers & Wiers, 2010). The current study aims to replicate those findings by testing whether these same variables predict craving to drink in a sample of 1320 bar patrons in a naturalistic setting. In addition, we extend those findings by testing whether regular alcohol use and self-reported number of drinks consumed interact to predict craving, and whether gender independently predicts craving or interacts with other variables to predict craving. Results indicate that for men, AUDIT score alone predicted craving, whereas for women, AUDIT score and number of drinks consumed interacted to predict craving, with craving highest among women with either high AUDIT scores or relatively high consumption levels. Our findings have implications for targeted intervention and prevention efforts, as women who have a history of harmful alcohol use and consume several drinks in an evening might be at the greatest risk for continued alcohol consumption. © 2013.

  12. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  13. Impulsive choice predicts anxiety-like behavior, but not alcohol or sucrose consumption, in male Long-Evans rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Jeffrey S; Renda, C Renee; Barker, Shayne M; Liston, Kennan J; Shahan, Timothy A; Madden, Gregory J

    2015-05-01

    Prior human research indicates robust, positive relations between impulsive choice (i.e., preference for smaller, immediate over larger, delayed rewards) and alcohol use disorders. However, varied findings in the nonhuman literature reveal a relatively ambiguous relation between impulsive choice and alcohol consumption in rodents. In addition, few rodent studies have investigated potential relations between impulsive choice and common covariates of alcohol consumption (e.g., avidity for sweet substances or anxiety-like behavior). Ninety-two male Long-Evans rats completed an impulsive-choice task. From this larger sample, extreme high- and low-impulsive groups (n = 30 each) were retained for further testing. In separate tests, subsequent open-field behavior and consumption of oral alcohol (12% w/v) and isocaloric sucrose were examined. Impulsive choice was then retested to examine whether behavior remained stable over the course of the experiment. No significant relations emerged between impulsive choice and either alcohol or sucrose consumption. However, impulsive choice predicted greater anxiety-like behavior (avoidance of the center field, defecation) in the open-field test. In turn, greater anxiety predicted lower alcohol and sucrose consumption. Finally, choice remained generally stable across the experiment, although high-impulsive rats tended toward less impulsive choice in the retest. Although impulsive choice and alcohol consumption appear to share some variance with anxiety-like behavior, the present data offer no support for a relation between impulsive choice and alcohol consumption in Long-Evans rats. Together with mixed rodent data from prior reports, these findings attenuate cross-species comparisons to human relations between impulsive choice and alcohol use disorders. Copyright © 2015 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  14. Predicting suicide attempts among treatment-seeking male alcoholics: an exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Galen Chin-Lun; Caine, Eric D; Fan, Hsiang-Fang; Huang, Ming-Chyi; Chen, Ying-Yeh

    2013-08-01

    Documented risk factors for suicide among alcohol-dependent patients are sensitive but insufficiently specific to effectively identify individuals who are prone to future suicide attempt. As a first step to assess factors not previously considered, this pilot study involved a group of male alcohol-dependent patients (N = 175) coming to detoxification to examine the potential utility of adverse childhood experiences (ACE) along with other documented events to discriminate individuals with a history of attempted suicide from their detoxifying peers. Family health history questionnaires were used to evaluate their ACEs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied to examine the predictive power of ACEs, alone or in combination with documented risk factors, to lifetime history of attempted suicide. Among our participants, 48 (27.4%) had a history of a suicide attempt and 156 (89.1%) reported at least one out of the nine categories of ACEs. Modeling by ROC analysis, we found that a cutoff of four or more ACEs plus a history of personal violence achieved the best predictive power to a history of any suicide attempt, producing a sensitivity of 0.7, specificity of 0.81, and area under curve of 0.75. A prospective study to replicate and extend our findings is necessary. © 2013 The American Association of Suicidology.

  15. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  16. Do maternal parenting practices predict problematic patterns of adolescent alcohol consumption?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alati, Rosa; Maloney, Elizabeth; Hutchinson, Delyse M; Najman, Jake M; Mattick, Richard P; Bor, William; Williams, Gail M

    2010-05-01

    This study examines whether a mother's style of parenting at child age 5 years predicts problematic patterns of drinking in adolescence, after controlling for relevant individual, maternal and social risk factors. Data were used from the Mater-University Study of Pregnancy, an Australian longitudinal study of mothers and their children from pregnancy to when the children were 14 years of age. Logistic regression analyses examined whether maternal parenting practices at child age 5 predicted problematic drinking patterns in adolescence, after controlling for a range of confounding covariates. Physical punishment at child age 5 did not predict adolescent alcohol problems at follow-up. Results indicated that low maternal control at child age 5 predicted adolescent occasional drinking patterns at age 14. More frequent maternal partner change coupled with lower levels of control was the strongest predictor of more problematic patterns of drinking by adolescents. These findings highlight the importance of family structure and level of parental control in the development of problematic patterns of drinking in adolescence.

  17. Personality and Defense Styles: Clinical Specificities and Predictive Factors of Alcohol Use Disorder in Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribadier, Aurélien; Dorard, Géraldine; Varescon, Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated personality traits and defense styles in order to determine clinical specificities and predictive factors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in women. A female sample, composed of AUD outpatients (n = 48) and a control group (n = 50), completed a sociodemographic self-report and questionnaires assessing personality traits (BFI), defense mechanisms and defense styles (DSQ-40). Comparative and correlational analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regressions, were performed. AUD women presented with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion and conscientiousness. They used less mature and more neurotic and immature defense styles than the control group. Concerning personality traits, high neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were predictive of AUD, as well as low mature, high neurotic, and immature defense styles. Including personality traits and defense styles in a logistic model, high neuroticism was the only AUD predictive factor. AUD women presented clinical specificities and predictive factors in personality traits and defense styles that must be taken into account in AUD studies. Implications for specific treatment for women are discussed.

  18. Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appel, David L.

    This booklet suggests ways in which institutions--Catholic schools in particular--can move beyond public relations and advertising to engage in the broader arena of marketing with its focus on consumer satisfaction. The first of the book's three chapters reviews the concept of marketing, providing definitions of key terms, clarification of…

  19. Predictive validity of the AUDIT for hazardous alcohol consumption in recently released prisoners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Emma; Degenhardt, Louisa; Alati, Rosa; Kinner, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the predictive validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) among adult prisoners with respect to hazardous drinking following release, and identify predictors of post-release hazardous drinking among prisoners screening positive for risk of alcohol-related harm on the AUDIT. Data came from a survey-based longitudinal study of 1325 sentenced adult prisoners in Queensland, Australia. Baseline interviews were conducted pre-release with follow-up at 3 and 6 months post-release. We calculated sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) to quantify the predictive validity of the AUDIT administered at baseline with respect to post-release hazardous drinking. Other potential predictors of hazardous drinking were measured by self-report and their association with the outcome was examined using logistic regression. At a cut-point of 8 or above, sensitivity of the AUDIT with respect to hazardous drinking at 3-month follow-up was 81.0% (95%CI: 77.9-84.6%) and specificity was 65.6% (95%CI: 60.6-70.3%). The AUROC was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.75-0.81), indicating moderate accuracy. Among those scoring 8 or above, high expectations to drink post-release (AOR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.57-3.94) and past amphetamine-type stimulant (ATS) use (AOR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.06-2.56) were significantly associated with hazardous drinking at 3 months post-release. Results were similar at 6 months. Among adult prisoners in our sample, pre-release AUDIT scores predicted hazardous drinking six months after release with acceptable accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Among prisoners screening positive on the AUDIT, expectations of post-release drinking and ATS use are potential targets for intervention to reduce future hazardous drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction of vapor-liquid equilibria for the alcohol + glycerol systems using UNIFAC and modified UNIFAC (Dortmund)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartanto, Dhoni; Mustain, Asalil; Nugroho, Febry Dwi

    2017-03-01

    The vapor-liquid equilibria for eight systems of alcohols + glycerol at 101.325 kPa have been predicted in this study using UNIFAC and Modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) group contribution methods. The investigated alcohols were methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol, 1-butanol, 2-butanol, 2-methyl-1-propanol and 2-methyl-2-propanol. In order to study the accuracy of both contribution methods, the predicted data obtained from both approaches were compared to the experimental data from the literature. The prediction accuracy using modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) give better results compared to the UNIFAC method for (ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol and 1-butanol) + glycerol but UNIFAC method show better accuracy for methanol + glycerol system. In addition, the influences of carbon chain length on the phase behaviours of alcohol + glycerol systems were also discussed as well.

  1. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  2. If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires…

  3. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafen Zhu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  4. The predictive success and profitability of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market

    OpenAIRE

    BEN OMRANE, Walid; VAN OPPEN, Hervé

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the existence of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar intra-daily foreign exchange market. We use two identification methods of the different chart patterns: one built on close prices only, and one based on low and high prices. We look for twelve types of chart patterns and we study the detected patterns through two criteria : predictability and profitability. We run a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the statistical significance of the obtained results. We find an apparent exist...

  5. Predicting the Currency Market in Online Gaming via Lexicon-Based Analysis on Its Online Forum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Bin Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transactions involving virtual currencies are becoming increasingly common, including those in online games. In response, predicting the market price of a virtual currency is an important task for all involved, but it has not yet attracted much attention from researchers. This paper presents user opinions from online forums in a massive multiplayer online game (MMOG setting widely used around the world. We propose a method for predicting the next-day rise and fall of the currency used in an MMOG environment. Based on analysis of online forum users’ opinions, we predict daily fluctuations in the price of a currency used in an MMOG setting. Focusing specifically on the World of Warcraft game, one of the most widely used MMOGs, we demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the fluctuation in value of virtual currencies used in this game community.

  6. Inhibition during early adolescence predicts alcohol and marijuana use by late adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squeglia, Lindsay M; Jacobus, Joanna; Nguyen-Louie, Tam T; Tapert, Susan F

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent substance use has been associated with poorer neuropsychological functioning, but it is unclear if deficits predate or follow the onset of use. The goal of this prospective study was to understand how neuropsychological functioning during early adolescence could predict substance use by late adolescence. At baseline, participants were 175 substance-use-naïve healthy 12- to 14-year-olds (41% female) recruited from local schools. Participants completed extensive interviews and neuropsychological tests. Each year, participants' substance use was assessed. By late adolescence (ages 17 to 18), 105 participants transitioned into substance use and 75 remained substance-naïve. Hierarchical linear regressions examined how baseline cognitive performance predicted subsequent substance use, controlling for common substance use risk factors (i.e., family history, externalizing behaviors, gender, pubertal development, and age). Poorer baseline performance on tests of cognitive inhibition-interference predicted higher follow-up peak drinks on an occasion (β = -.15; p .05). Compromised inhibitory functioning during early adolescence prior to the onset of substance use was related to more frequent and intense alcohol and marijuana use by late adolescence. Inhibition performance could help identify teens at risk for initiating heavy substance use during adolescence, and potentially could be modified to improve outcome. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. DFT-based prediction of reactivity of short-chain alcohol dehydrogenase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stawoska, I.; Dudzik, A.; Wasylewski, M.; Jemioła-Rzemińska, M.; Skoczowski, A.; Strzałka, K.; Szaleniec, M.

    2017-06-01

    The reaction mechanism of ketone reduction by short chain dehydrogenase/reductase, ( S)-1-phenylethanol dehydrogenase from Aromatoleum aromaticum, was studied with DFT methods using cluster model approach. The characteristics of the hydride transfer process were investigated based on reaction of acetophenone and its eight structural analogues. The results confirmed previously suggested concomitant transfer of hydride from NADH to carbonyl C atom of the substrate with proton transfer from Tyr to carbonyl O atom. However, additional coupled motion of the next proton in the proton-relay system, between O2' ribose hydroxyl and Tyr154 was observed. The protonation of Lys158 seems not to affect the pKa of Tyr154, as the stable tyrosyl anion was observed only for a neutral Lys158 in the high pH model. The calculated reaction energies and reaction barriers were calibrated by calorimetric and kinetic methods. This allowed an excellent prediction of the reaction enthalpies (R2 = 0.93) and a good prediction of the reaction kinetics (R2 = 0.89). The observed relations were validated in prediction of log K eq obtained for real whole-cell reactor systems that modelled industrial synthesis of S-alcohols.

  8. A longitudinal study predicting adolescent tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis use by behavioral characteristics of close friends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Michael J; Zaharakis, Nikola M; Rusby, Julie C; Westling, Erika; Light, John M; Mennis, Jeremy; Flay, Brian R

    2017-09-01

    Few studies have examined in detail how specific behaviors of close friends put adolescents at risk for specific types of substance use. Using a prospective, longitudinal design, we examined how well the substance use of 248 young urban adolescents was predicted by perceptions of their 3 closest friends' problematic behaviors: (1) using substances, (2) offering substances, and (3) engaging with friends in risky behavior (substance use, illegal behavior, violent behavior, or high-risk sexual behavior). Longitudinal multivariate repeated measures models were tested to predict tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis use and perceived closeness was tested as a moderator of the effects of perceptions of problematic peer behavior. Perceptions of peer substance use were significantly associated with tobacco use, and closeness moderated the influence of peer substance use and offers to use substances on tobacco use. Perceptions of problematic peer behaviors were not significantly associated with alcohol use and closeness was not significant as a moderator. Perceptions of peer substance use was significantly associated with cannabis use, and closeness moderated the influence of perceptions of peer risk behaviors, peer substance use, and offers to use substances on cannabis use. Results implicate the importance of understanding problematic peer behavior within the context of close, adolescent friendships. Adolescents with close friends who were substance users, who made offers to use substances, and who engaged in risky behaviors were more likely to use tobacco and cannabis. Perceptions of young adolescents' close friends' behaviors influenced their substance use up to 2 years later. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Interactions between Parental Alcohol-Specific Rules and Risk Personalities in the Prediction of Adolescent Alcohol Use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Tim; Larsen, Helle; Peeters, Margot; Pronk, Thomas; Vollebergh, Wilma A. M.; Wiers, Reinout W.

    2014-01-01

    Aims: To examine the impact of an important context variable (alcohol-specific parental rules) and an important person variable (risky personality traits) and their interaction on prospective adolescent drinking. Methods: Participants were 252 adolescents, 67.9% female, between 13 and 16 years old.

  10. Interactions between parental alcohol-specific rules and risk personalities in the prediction of adolescent alcohol use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, T.; Larsen, H.; Peeters, M.; Pronk, T.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.; Wiers, R.W.

    2014-01-01

    Aims: To examine the impact of an important context variable (alcohol-specific parental rules) and an important person variable (risky personality traits) and their interaction on prospective adolescent drinking. Methods: Participants were 252 adolescents, 67.9% female, between 13 and 16 years old.

  11. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Daniela NEMES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

  13. Prediction of non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease and liver fat content by serum molecular lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orešic, Matej; Hyötyläinen, Tuulia; Kotronen, Anna

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether analysis of lipids by ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled to MS allows the development of a laboratory test for non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease (NAFLD), and how a lipid-profile biomarker compares with the prediction of NAFLD and liver-fat content based...

  14. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  15. Predicting drunk driving: contribution of alcohol use and related problems, traffic behaviour, personality and platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eensoo, Diva; Paaver, Marika; Harro, Maarike; Harro, Jaanus

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the predictive value of socio-economic data, alcohol consumption measures, smoking, platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity, traffic behaviour habits and impulsivity measures for actual drunk driving. Data were collected from 203 male drunk driving offenders and 211 control subjects using self-reported questionnaires, and blood samples were obtained from the two groups. We identified the combination of variables, which predicted correctly, approximately 80% of the subjects' belonging to the drunk driving and control groups. Significant independent discriminators in the final model were, among the health-behaviour measures, alcohol-related problems, frequency of using alcohol, the amount of alcohol consumed and smoking. Predictive traffic behaviour measures were seat belt use and paying for parking. Among the impulsivity measures, dysfunctional impulsivity was the best predictor; platelet MAO activity and age also had an independent predictive value. Our results support the notion that drunk driving is the result of a combination of various behavioural, biological and personality-related risk factors.

  16. Co-morbid anxiety disorders predict early relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellekens, A.F.A.; Jong, C.A.J. de; Buitelaar, J.K.; Verkes, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Alcohol dependence and anxiety disorders often co-occur. Yet, the effect of co-morbid anxiety disorders on the alcohol relapse-risk after treatment is under debate. This study investigated the effect of co-morbid anxiety disorders on relapse rates in alcohol dependence. We hypothesized

  17. Co-morbid anxiety disorders predict early relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellekens, A.F.A.; Jong, C.A.J. de; Buitelaar, J.K.; Verkes, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Alcohol dependence and anxiety disorders often co-occur. Yet, the effect of co-morbid anxiety disorders on the alcohol relapse-risk after treatment is under debate. This study investigated the effect of co-morbid anxiety disorders on relapse rates in alcohol dependence. We hypothesized

  18. Personality and the Prediction of High-Risk Trajectories of Alcohol Use During Adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Margot; Monshouwer, Karin; van de Schoot, Rens; Janssen, Tim; Vollebergh, Wilma; Wiers, Reinout

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Early onset of alcohol use and persistent use of alcohol during adolescence have been associated with later problem behavior, such as heavy drinking and the use of other substances. Several personality characteristics have been related to the onset and persistent use of alcohol during

  19. Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

    2018-05-01

    In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  1. Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This

  2. Anti-bacterial efficacy of alcoholic hand rubs in the Kenyan market, 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Missiani Ochwoto

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hand hygiene is known to be effective in preventing hospital and community-acquired infections. The increasing number of hand sanitizer brands in Kenyan hospitals and consumer outlets is of concern. Thus the main aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-bacterial efficacy and organoleptic properties of these hand sanitizers in Kenya. Methods This was an experimental, laboratory-based study of 14 different brands of hand sanitizers (coded HS1-14 available in various retail outlets and hospitals in Kenya. Efficacy was evaluated using standard non-pathogenic Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922, Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923 and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853 as per the European Standard (EN. The logarithmic reduction factors (RF were assessed at baseline and after treatment, and log reduction then calculated. Ten and 25 healthy volunteers participated in the efficacy and organoleptic studies respectively. Results Four (28.6% hand sanitizers (HS12, HS9, HS13 and HS14 showed a 5.9 reduction factor on all the three bacteria strains. Seven (50% hand sanitizers had efficacies of <3 against all the three bacteria strains used. Efficacy on E. Coli was higher compared to the other pathogens. Three hand sanitizers were efficacious on one of the pathogens and not the other. In terms of organoleptic properties, gel-based formulations were rated far higher than the liquid based formulations brands. Conclusion Fifty percent (50% of the selected hand sanitizers in the Kenyan market have efficacy that falls below the World Health Organization (WHO and DIN EN 1500:2013. Of the 14 hand sanitizers found in the Kenyan market, only four showed efficacies that were comparable to the WHO-formulation. There is a need to evaluate how many of these products with <3 efficacy that have been incorporated into the health system for hand hygiene and the country’s policy on regulations on their usage.

  3. Investigation of aggravating psychosocial factors on health and predictability of smoking and alcohol use in post adolescent students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Effrosyni Barmpagianni

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual.

  4. Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Jeffrey Prestemon; Robert Huggett; Douglas Carter

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsAlthough timber production in the South more than doubled from the 1960s to the late 1990s, output levels have declined over the last 10 years, signaling structural changes in timber markets.For softwood products, production declines are most clearly related to demand issues. Demand for softwood solid wood products...

  5. Strategic Self-Presentation or Authentic Communication? Predicting Adolescents' Alcohol References on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geusens, Femke; Beullens, Kathleen

    2017-01-01

    The current study is one of the first to examine how self-reported alcohol consumption, friends' perceived alcohol consumption, and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with adolescents' sharing of alcohol references on SNS. A cross-sectional paper-and-pencil survey was administered among 3,172 adolescents (n = 3,133 used for analyses, mean age = 17.16 years, SD = 0.93; 50.7% male). Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. First, the results indicated that both self-reported drinking behavior and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references were related to sharing alcohol references on SNS, but the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor than self-reported drinking behavior. Friends' perceived drinking behavior was not a significant predictor. In the second place, self-reported drinking behavior was a stronger predictor for girls than for boys, whereas the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor for boys than for girls. Adolescents' alcohol-related self-representation is in line with their alcohol consumption and is also strongly related to what their friends are sharing. Thus, adolescents appear to communicate authentically about their drinking experiences, but the decision to do so is heavily influenced by the prevailing social norm regarding alcohol-related communication.

  6. Predicting alcohol consumption and binge drinking in company employees: an application of planned behaviour and self-determination theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, Martin S; Lonsdale, Adam J; Hein, Vello; Koka, Andre; Lintunen, Taru; Pasi, Heidi; Lindwall, Magnus; Rudolfsson, Lisa; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

    2012-05-01

    This study tested an integrated model of the psychosocial determinants of alcohol-related behaviour among company employees from four nations. A motivational sequence was proposed in which motivational orientations from self-determination theory influenced intentions to consume alcohol within guideline limits and alcohol-related behaviour via the mediation of the theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). A three-wave prospective design using self-reported psychological and behavioural measures. Company employees (N= 486, males = 225, females = 261; M age = 30.41, SD= 8.31) from four nations (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and UK) completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivation from self-determination theory, attitudes, subjective norms, PBC, intentions from the theory of planned behaviour, and self-reported measures of past alcohol consumption and binge-drinking occasions at the first time point (time 1). Follow-up psychological and behavioural measures were taken one month later (time 2) and follow-up behavioural measures taken a further 2 months later (time 3). Path analyses supported the motivational sequence with identified regulation (time 1), predicting intentions (time 1), and alcohol units consumed (time 2). The effects were indirect via the mediation of attitudes and PBC (time 1). A similar pattern of effects was found for the effect of time 2 psychological variables on time 3 units of alcohol consumed. There was little support for the effects of the psychological variables on binge-drinking behaviour. Findings provide new information on the psychosocial determinants of alcohol behaviour in company employees and the processes involved. Results may provide impetus for the development of interventions to reduce alcohol consumption. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  7. Executive function predicts adaptive behavior in children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Ashley L; Crocker, Nicole; O'Brien, Jessica W; Deweese, Benjamin N; Roesch, Scott C; Coles, Claire D; Kable, Julie A; May, Philip A; Kalberg, Wendy O; Sowell, Elizabeth R; Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Riley, Edward P; Mattson, Sarah N

    2012-08-01

    Prenatal exposure to alcohol often results in disruption to discrete cognitive and behavioral domains, including executive function (EF) and adaptive functioning. In the current study, the relation between these 2 domains was examined in children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure, nonexposed children with a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and typically developing controls. As part of a multisite study, 3 groups of children (8 to 18 years, M = 12.10) were tested: children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure (ALC, n = 142), nonexposed children with ADHD (ADHD, n = 82), and typically developing controls (CON, n = 133) who did not have ADHD or a history of prenatal alcohol exposure. Children completed subtests of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS), and their primary caregivers completed the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-II. Data were analyzed using regression analyses. Analyses showed that EF measures were predictive of adaptive abilities, and significant interactions between D-KEFS measures and group were present. For the ADHD group, the relation between adaptive abilities and EF was more general, with 3 of the 4 EF measures showing a significant relation with adaptive score. In contrast, for the ALC group, this relation was specific to the nonverbal EF measures. In the CON group, performance on EF tasks did not predict adaptive scores over the influence of age. These results support prior research in ADHD, suggesting that EF deficits are predictive of poorer adaptive behavior and extend this finding to include children with heavy prenatal exposure to alcohol. However, the relation between EF and adaptive ability differed by group, suggesting unique patterns of abilities in these children. These results provide enhanced understanding of adaptive deficits in these populations, as well as demonstrate the ecological validity of laboratory measures of EF. Copyright © 2012 by the Research

  8. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs.

  9. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice Trovero

    Full Text Available Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs.

  10. Alcohol use longitudinally predicts adjustment and impairment in college students with ADHD: The role of executive functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langberg, Joshua M; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Kipperman, Kristen L; Molitor, Stephen J; Eddy, Laura D

    2015-06-01

    The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether alcohol consumption longitudinally predicts the adjustment, overall functioning, and grade point average (GPA) of college students with ADHD and to determine whether self-report of executive functioning (EF) mediates these relationships. Sixty-two college students comprehensively diagnosed with ADHD completed ratings at the beginning and end of the school year. Regression analyses revealed that alcohol consumption rated at the beginning of the year significantly predicted self-report of adjustment and overall impairment at the end of the year, above and beyond ADHD symptoms and baseline levels of adjustment/impairment but did not predict GPA. Exploratory multiple mediator analyses suggest that alcohol use impacts impairment primarily through EF deficits in self-motivation. EF deficits in the motivation to refrain from pursuing immediately rewarding behaviors in order to work toward long-term goals appear to be particularly important in understanding why college students with ADHD who consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing significant negative outcomes. The implications of these findings for the prevention of the negative functional outcomes often experienced by college students with ADHD are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  12. Cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary health care physicians in brief intervention techniques for hazardous alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomel, M K; Wutzke, S E; Hardcastle, D M; Lapsley, H; Reznik, R B

    1998-07-01

    The cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary care physicians in brief intervention for hazardous alcohol consumption was examined. Physicians were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies designed to promote the "uptake" of a brief intervention package for hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. The strategies were direct mail, tele-marketing, or academic detailing. One hundred and twenty-seven of those physicians who requested the package during the marketing phase (phase 1) and who also agreed to participate in the training and support phase of the project (phase 2) were matched into one of three training and support conditions: training and no support, training and minimal support, training and maximal support. An additional 34 physicians were randomly selected and assigned to a control condition. The ultimate aim of training and support was to maximise physician screening and counselling rates. Tele-marketing was found to be more cost-effective than academic detailing and direct mail in promoting the uptake of the package. For the training and support phase costs and effects increased with the level of support, hence the issue to be considered is whether the additional cost incurred in moving from one strategy to another is warranted given the increase in the level of outcome.

  13. South Korean alcohol free associations: negative expectancy not predicting drinks per occasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Benjamin J; Graham, Deborah; Cottrell, David; Kim, Kyung-Yong

    2012-06-01

    Cultural and biological particulars existing in East Asian countries are likely to mediate differences in the alcohol consumption experience. Despite this no research to date has directly explored the alcohol free association or expectancy of any East Asian nations. The current research aims to provide a set of South Korean alcohol expectancies. Two hundred and thirty-seven South Koreans participated in an alcohol free association test and completed a demographic survey. The results both confirmed and contradicted areas of past alcohol expectancy research. There appears to be differences in associates with high probability of recall and alcohol expectancy, where negative, negative sedating and sedating expectancy categories were not found to be predictors of South Korean drinker level. The results suggest that South Koreans have a more even level of negative expectancy across all drinker categories, possibly due to a combination of linguistic, cultural and biological difference found among this population. The results provide a list of South Korean alcohol free association norms for future alcohol research in the region, with the results also underlining the need for alcohol free association tests among East Asian nations. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  14. The gas market and sector in France. Situation and predictions 2018 - Sector and competitive analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    Through a detailed analysis of market determining factors, of evolutions of supply and demand, and of major events in firms life, this set of two reports proposes an analysis of the recent situation of the gas sector and of the evolutions of the competitive game. The first report on situation and predictions which is updated three times a year, proposes a synthesis on the consequences of the evolution of the economic environment, on major trends noticed for the sector, and on predictable evolutions. It proposes the most recent predictions regarding natural gas consumption in France and the turnover of the gas sector. It highlights recent events for companies of the sector: takeovers, investments, restructuring, introduction of new products, and so on. It proposes a sector-based dashboard which contains all the critical figures useful to analyse the sector situation (activity determining factors, key figures for the sector and its environment). The second report (the annual one) proposes an overview of trends and competition within the gas sector. It gives an overview of some basic aspects of the activity (sector organisation, gas categories, main customer markets, gas consumption in industry), and of its determining factors, analyses the sector environment (sites connected to the natural gas network, evolution of average temperatures in France, production by chemical industry, by the food industry, and by metallurgy and oil refining, thermal production of electricity, regulatory evolution regarding supports to energy efficiency, and new opportunities). The evolution of the sector activity is analysed through its trends and indicators (turnovers, gas consumption, butane-propane deliveries, wholesale prices, regulated tariffs). The economic structure is also analysed: aspects related to the upstream part (extraction, injection of biogas, natural gas main input and output points, transport and storage, natural gas distribution), and aspects related to gas provision

  15. Quality of alcohol-based hand disinfectants and their regulatory status. Development and marketing authorisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stengele, Michael

    2008-10-01

    A 2005 survey showed that there are at least four legal product classifications for hand disinfectants in the European Union: medicinal products, biocidal products, cosmetics and medical devices. An internationally harmonized classification does not exist. The regulatory status of those products is defined at national level. In order to assure compliance with the regulations these four classifications provide different levels of official surveillance varying from product-specific marketing authorisations and production site audits to the obligation to just work in accordance with certain general guidelines. Biocidal product regulations cover eco-toxicological and toxicological aspects, but do not very much address to the customers' quality and efficacy expectations. In contrast, the medicinal product legislation is the most ambitious one claiming quality, safety, efficacy, and an independent benefit risk-assessment by an authority. In respect of ambition, the two remaining product categories--cosmetics and medical devices--rank between the both classifications mentioned above. For medical devices, it is the responsibility of the manufacturer to make sure the products meet defined essential requirements regarding quality, safety and performance and to have an appropriate quality assurance system implemented under third party control. For cosmetics there are some legal restrictions, but within these it is the sole responsibility of the manufacturer to ensure that the products are safe and fulfil their claims. This paper describes one way out of this increasingly complex situation, the definition of a single quality standard meeting the users' expectations as well as all legal requirements regardless of the specific sales country. This international quality standard for products would take priority over any individual national standard, to the benefit of users.

  16. Size matters: Installed maximal unit size predicts market life cycles of electricity generation technologies and systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, N.

    2008-01-01

    The electricity generation technologies and systems are complex and change in very dynamic fashions, with a multitude of energy sources and prime movers. Since an important concept in generator design is the 'economies of scale', we discover that the installed maximal unit size (capacity) of the generators is a key 'envelope-pushing' characteristic with logistical behaviors. The logistical wavelet analysis of the max unit sizes for different fuels and prime movers, and the cumulative capacities, reveals universal quantitative features in the aggregate evolution of the power industry. We extract the transition times of the max sizes (spanning 10-90% of the saturation limits) for different technologies and systems, and discover that the max size saturation in the 90-99% range precedes the saturation of cumulative capacities of the corresponding systems in the US. While these universal laws are still empirical, they give us a simple yet elegant framework to examine the evolution of the power industry and markets in predictive, not just descriptive, terms. Such laws give us a quantitative tool to spot trends and predict future development, invaluable in planning and resource allocation based on intrinsic technology and system market life cycles. (author)

  17. The string prediction models as invariants of time series in the forex market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincak, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.

  18. PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOVAKIAN TIMBER TRADE ON GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Gejdoš

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management, prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.

  19. Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-12-01

    Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.

  20. Cigarette smoking initiation during college predicts future alcohol involvement: A matched-samples study

    OpenAIRE

    Myers, MG; Doran, NM; Edland, SD; Amanda Schweizer, C; Wall, TL

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Little is known about the relationship between cigarette smoking initiation and subsequent alcohol involvement. To address this question, the present study compared alcohol use between students who initiated smoking during college and a matched sample of never-smoking students. We hypothesized greater increases in alcohol involvement among smoking initiators, mediated by exposure to cigarette use situations. Method: Included in the present study were 104 Chinese American and Korean...

  1. Temporal Alcohol Availability Predicts First-Time Drunk Driving, but Not Repeat Offending

    OpenAIRE

    Schofield, Timothy P.; Denson, Thomas F.

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges...

  2. The predictive validity of the Drinking-Related Cognitions Scale in alcohol-dependent patients under abstinence-oriented treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sawayama Toru

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cognitive factors associated with drinking behavior such as positive alcohol expectancies, self-efficacy, perception of impaired control over drinking and perception of drinking problems are considered to have a significant influence on treatment effects and outcome in alcohol-dependent patients. However, the development of a rating scale on lack of perception or denial of drinking problems and impaired control over drinking has not been substantial, even though these are important factors in patients under abstinence-oriented treatment as well as participants in self-help groups such as Alcoholics Anonymous (AA. The Drinking-Related Cognitions Scale (DRCS is a new self-reported rating scale developed to briefly measure cognitive factors associated with drinking behavior in alcohol-dependent patients under abstinence-oriented treatment, including positive alcohol expectancies, abstinence self-efficacy, perception of impaired control over drinking, and perception of drinking problems. Here, we conducted a prospective cohort study to explore the predictive validity of DRCS. Methods Participants in this study were 175 middle-aged and elderly Japanese male patients who met the DSM-IV Diagnostic Criteria for Alcohol Dependence. DRCS scores were recorded before and after the inpatient abstinence-oriented treatment program, and treatment outcome was evaluated one year after discharge. Results Of the 175 participants, 30 were not available for follow-up; thus the number of subjects for analysis in this study was 145. When the total DRCS score and subscale scores were compared before and after inpatient treatment, a significant increase was seen for both scores. Both the total DRCS score and each subscale score were significantly related to total abstinence, percentage of abstinent days, and the first drinking occasion during the one-year post-treatment period. Therefore, good treatment outcome was significantly predicted by low

  3. Differential Utility of Three Indexes of Risky Drinking for Predicting Alcohol Problems in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsari, Brian; Neal, Dan J.; Collins, Susan E.; Carey, Kate B.

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluated the relationship between alcohol-related problems and 3 indexes of risky drinking in college student drinkers: number of drinks consumed per week, frequency of binge drinking, and estimated blood alcohol levels (BALs). Use of 2 independent samples (N1 = 204, N2 = 181) allowed a cross-validation of obtained associations. Results indicated that neither binge drinking frequency nor BAL were more highly related to alcohol-related problems than was weekly drinking. Furthermore, BAL did not provide unique explanatory power in accounting for alcohol-related problems; mixed results were obtained regarding the relationship of binge drinking estimates with problems. PMID:11767264

  4. Executive Function Predicts Adaptive Behavior in Children with Histories of Heavy Prenatal Alcohol Exposure and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Ashley L.; Crocker, Nicole; O’Brien, Jessica W.; Deweese, Benjamin N.; Roesch, Scott C.; Coles, Claire D.; Kable, Julie A.; May, Philip A.; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Sowell, Elizabeth R.; Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Riley, Edward P.; Mattson, Sarah N.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose of Study Prenatal exposure to alcohol often results in disruption to discrete cognitive and behavioral domains, including executive function (EF) and adaptive functioning. In the current study, the relation between these two domains was examined in children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure, non-exposed children with a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and typically developing controls. Methods As part of a multisite study, three groups of children (8-18y, M = 12.10) were tested: children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure (ALC, N=142), non-exposed children with ADHD (ADHD, N=82), and typically developing controls (CON, N=133) who did not have ADHD or a history of prenatal alcohol exposure. Children completed subtests of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) and their primary caregivers completed the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-II (VABS). Data were analyzed using regression analyses. Results Analyses showed that EF measures were predictive of adaptive abilities and significant interactions between D-KEFS measures and group were present. For the ADHD group, the relation between adaptive abilities and EF was more general, with three of the four EF measures showing a significant relation with adaptive score. In contrast, for the ALC group, this relation was specific to the nonverbal EF measures. In the CON group, performance on EF tasks did not predict adaptive scores over the influence of age. Conclusion These results support prior research in ADHD suggesting that EF deficits are predictive of poorer adaptive behavior and extend this finding to include children with heavy prenatal exposure to alcohol. However, the relation between EF and adaptive ability differed by group, suggesting unique patterns of abilities in these children. These results provide enhanced understanding of adaptive deficits in these populations, as well as demonstrate the ecological validity of laboratory

  5. THE EFFECTS OF BANKRUPTCY ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF PRICE FORMATION PROCESSES ON WARSAW’S STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Fiedor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate how bankruptcy affects the market behaviour of prices of stocks on Warsaw’s Stock Exchange. As the behaviour of prices can be seen in a myriad of ways, we investigate a particular aspect of this behaviour, namely the predictability of these price formation processes. We approximate their predictability as the structural complexity of logarithmic returns. This method of analysing predictability of price formation processes using information theory follows closely the mathematical definition of predictability, and is equal to the degree to which redundancy is present in the time series describing stock returns. We use Shannon’s entropy rate (approximating Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy to measure this redundancy, and estimate it using the Lempel-Ziv algorithm, computing it with a running window approach over the entire price history of 50 companies listed on the Warsaw market which have gone bankrupt in the last few years. This enables us not only to compare the differences between predictability of price formation processes before and after their filing for bankruptcy, but also to compare the changes in predictability over time, as well as divided into different categories of companies and bankruptcies. There exists a large body of research analysing the efficiency of the whole market and the predictability of price changes enlarge, but only a few detailed studies analysing the influence of external stimulion the efficiency of price formation processes. This study fills this gap in the knowledge of financial markets, and their response to extreme external events.

  6. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Timothy P; Denson, Thomas F

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  7. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy P Schofield

    Full Text Available Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  8. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  9. Cingulate cortex functional connectivity predicts future relapse in alcohol dependent individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmin Zakiniaeiz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing illness. Alcohol and stress cues have consistently been shown to increase craving and relapse risk in recovering alcohol dependent (AUD patients. However, differences in functional connectivity in response to these cues have not been studied using data-driven approaches. Here, voxel-wise connectivity is used in a whole-brain investigation of functional connectivity differences associated with alcohol and stress cues and to examine whether these differences are related to subsequent relapse. In Study 1, 45, 4- to 8-week abstinent, recovering AUD patients underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during individualized imagery of alcohol, stress, and neutral cues. Relapse measures were collected prospectively for 90 days post-discharge from inpatient treatment. AUD patients showed blunted anterior (ACC, mid (MCC and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC, voxel-wise connectivity responses to stress compared to neutral cues and blunted PCC response to alcohol compared to neutral cues. Using Cox proportional hazard regression, weaker connectivity in ACC and MCC during neutral exposure was associated with longer time to relapse (better recovery outcome. Similarly, greater connectivity in PCC during alcohol-cue compared to stress cue was associated with longer time to relapse. In Study 2, a sub-group of 30 AUD patients were demographically-matched to 30 healthy control (HC participants for group comparisons. AUD compared to HC participants showed reduced cingulate connectivity during alcohol and stress cues. Using novel data-driven approaches, the cingulate cortex emerged as a key region in the disruption of functional connectivity during alcohol and stress-cue processing in AUD patients and as a marker of subsequent alcohol relapse.

  10. An Exploration of the Associations of Alcohol-Related Social Media Use and Message Interpretation Outcomes to Problem Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Austin, Bruce W

    2017-07-01

    College students' use of digital communication technology has led to a rapid expansion of digital alcohol marketing efforts. Two surveys (total usable n = 637) were conducted to explore college students' experiences with alcohol-related social media, their decision making related to alcohol use, and their problematic drinking behaviors. Study results indicated that students' use of alcohol-related social media predicted their problem drinking behaviors. In addition, students' wishful identification, perceived desirability, perceived similarity, and normative beliefs predicted their expectancies for drinking alcohol. Finally, students' expectancies for drinking alcohol predicted their problematic drinking behaviors.

  11. Diagnosis and prediction of tipping points in financial markets: Crashes and rebounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Wanfeng; Woodard, Ryan; Sornette, Didier

    2010-08-01

    By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles. It embodies a positive feedback loop of higher return anticipations competing with negative feedback spirals of crash expectations. The power of the LPPL model is illustrated by two recent real-life predictions performed recently by our group: the peak of the Oil price bubble in early July 2008 and the burst of a bubble on the Shanghai stock market in early August 2009. We then present the concept of 'negative bubbles', which are the mirror images of positive bubbles. We argue that similar positive feedbacks are at work to fuel these accelerated downward price spirals. We adapt the LPPL model to these negative bubbles and implement a pattern recognition method to predict the end times of the negative bubbles, which are characterized by rebounds (the mirror images of crashes associated with the standard positive bubbles). The out-of-sample tests quantified by error diagrams demonstrate the high significance of the prediction performance.

  12. Minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost in electricity markets based on the prediction error of energy consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Yamaguchi, Naoya; Hori, Maiya; Ideguchi, Yoshinari

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\\it day-ahead} and {\\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices and the distributions of prediction errors for the electricity demand traded in two markets are known. The expectation value of the total electricity cost is minimised over two parameters that change the amounts of electricity. Two parameters depend only on t...

  13. The electricity market. Situation and predictions 2018 - Sectoral and competitive analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    This document comprises two reports. A first one, published and updated three times a year, and a second one which is a yearly publication. The first one, based on an analysis of market perspectives and of actor strategies, proposes a synthesis on the consequences of the evolution of the economic environment, on major trends noticed for the electric power sector, and on predictable evolutions. It proposes the most recent data regarding the activities of about 200 firms belonging to the power sector (notably in terms of turnover and of electric power consumption). It highlights recent events for companies of the sector: takeovers, investments, restructuring, introduction of new products, and so on. It proposes a sector-based dashboard which contains all the critical figures useful to analyse the sector situation (activity determining factors, key figures for the sector and its environment). The annual report proposes a presentation of the sector and of the determining factors of its activity, an analysis of the activity evolution (trends, indicators like turnover, electric power consumption and production, prices and regulated tariffs, power imports and exports), a presentation of financial performance of electricity producers, a description of the sector economic structure (evolution of the economic tissue, analysis of structural characteristics), and a presentation of actors and of the competitive landscape (ranking and positioning of electric power providers and producers, market shares, identity sheets of the main actors, highlights, and ranking of the main companies in terms of turnover and of financial performance)

  14. Predicting risky sexual behaviors among college student drinkers as a function of event-level drinking motives and alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilwein, Tess M; Looby, Alison

    2018-01-01

    Risky sexual behaviors (e.g., sex without protection against pregnancy or sexually transmitted infections, sexual coercion, sex with unknown partners) are common among college students. To effectively decrease these behaviors, it is necessary to further understand factors associated with their occurrence. Drinking motives are a known predictor of both alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences, which may theoretically include risky sex. This study aimed to understand how drinking motivation interacts with alcohol use to predict risky sexual behaviors among college student drinkers. One-hundred and eight primarily female (83.3%) college students (age: M=19.09, SD=1.16) who endorsed past-month alcohol use and lifetime history of sexual activity completed up to four weekly Internet surveys assessing daily quantity of alcohol use, drinking motives (i.e., social, enhancement, coping, conformity), and engagement in risky sexual behavior. From 403 reported drinking episodes, four Generalized Estimating Equations were used to predict risky sex from person-centered drinking quantity and drinking motives. Strong social motives significantly increased the odds of engaging in risky sexual behaviors (p=0.004). Additionally, there was a significant interaction, such that the relationship between risky sex and drinking depends on enhancement motives (p=0.021). Interventions targeting social and enhancement motives for drinking may be particularly effective in reducing the occurrence of risky sexual behaviors among college students, which may result in a reduction of the negative physical and psychological health outcomes accompanying these behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Non-linear multivariable predictive control of an alcoholic fermentation process using functional link networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto da Cruz Meleiro

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work a MIMO non-linear predictive controller was developed for an extractive alcoholic fermentation process. The internal model of the controller was represented by two MISO Functional Link Networks (FLNs, identified using simulated data generated from a deterministic mathematical model whose kinetic parameters were determined experimentally. The FLN structure presents as advantages fast training and guaranteed convergence, since the estimation of the weights is a linear optimization problem. Besides, the elimination of non-significant weights generates parsimonious models, which allows for fast execution in an MPC-based algorithm. The proposed algorithm showed good potential in identification and control of non-linear processes.Neste trabalho um controlador preditivo não linear multivariável foi desenvolvido para um processo de fermentação alcoólica extrativa. O modelo interno do controlador foi representado por duas redes do tipo Functional Link (FLN, identificadas usando dados de simulação gerados a partir de um modelo validado experimentalmente. A estrutura FLN apresenta como vantagem o treinamento rápido e convergência garantida, já que a estimação dos seus pesos é um problema de otimização linear. Além disso, a eliminação de pesos não significativos gera modelos parsimoniosos, o que permite a rápida execução em algoritmos de controle preditivo baseado em modelo. Os resultados mostram que o algoritmo proposto tem grande potencial para identificação e controle de processos não lineares.

  16. Position and development of the food independent trade and its prediction on Czech market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Záboj

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with a problem of independent trade in Czech Republic which means small and medium sized retail and wholesale enterprises without capital linkage to big companies abroad. It is especially focused on Czech food sellers trying to compete against transnational companies entering and operating on Czech market. One of possibilities how to face geographically and financially strong subjects is vertical cooperation and creation trade alliances. It means joining individual small and medium sized wholesalers and retailers into one association representing all members. Main advantages of these cooperative structures are lower purchase costs due to common negotiation with suppliers and co-financing of some activities (for example promotion. It is very important to sustain the diversity of retail market because of ensuring and forming competitive environment and offering the miscellaneous forms of retail to final consumers. That is why the main goal of this paper is to find out last changes and contemporary position and structure of the food independent trade alliances with prediction of future development. It is necessary to mention the fact that data is quite difficult to gain for this purpose. There are yearbooks of Czech and Slovak trade where some important information are published namely sales of food trade alliances are used like main indicator to describe and predict their development. A suitable statistic method has to be selected to fulfil the stated goal. Time series and interlay with trend curve seem like the most suitable instrument. In case of individual trade alliances the linear or logarithmic function will be used according to course of sales.

  17. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Alcohol-related hot-spot analysis and prediction : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This project developed methods to more accurately identify alcohol-related crash hot spots, ultimately allowing for more effective and efficient enforcement and safety campaigns. Advancements in accuracy came from improving the calculation of spatial...

  19. Poor impulse control predicts inelastic demand for nicotine but not alcohol in rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diergaarde, L.; van Mourik, Y.; Pattij, T.; Schoffelmeer, A.N.M.; de Vries, T.J.

    2012-01-01

    Tobacco and alcohol dependence are characterized by continued use despite deleterious health, social and occupational consequences, implying that addicted individuals pay a high price for their use. In behavioral economic terms, such persistent consumption despite increased costs can be

  20. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit G

    2014-06-01

    response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested.Keywords: alcoholism, relapse, response inhibition, go/no-go task, ERPs, P3d 

  1. Distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress predict women's problematic alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzhauer, Cathryn Glanton; Wemm, Stephanie; Wulfert, Edelgard

    2017-06-01

    Research has shown that measures of reactivity to distress-including distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress-are dysregulated in women who misuse alcohol. These variables may interact and create a risk profile for young adult women, reflecting patterns of stress reactivity that confer a risk for alcohol misuse. The current study tested this hypothesis by examining the independent and interactive associations of subjective distress tolerance, behavioral distress tolerance, and physiological stress reactivity with women's alcohol misuse. The study was conducted with a sample of 91 college women recruited on a large northeastern university campus. Results showed that subjective levels of distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress (skin conductance reactivity, SCR), but not behavioral distress tolerance, were independently associated with alcohol misuse. In addition, subjective distress tolerance moderated the relationship between SCR and negative alcohol-related consequences. Specifically, women with low physiological reactivity (SCR) to a stressful task and greater urge to quickly rid themselves of distress (low subjective distress tolerance) endorsed a significantly greater number of adverse consequences from their alcohol use. These results extend prior findings by showing that, even among a nonclinical sample of women, lower stress reactivity in combination with low subjective distress tolerance is associated with increased risk for various drinking-related negative consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. The Role of Psychological Distress in Relapse Prevention of Alcohol Addiction. Can High Scores on the SCL-90-R Predict Alcohol Relapse?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Katharina; Schaefer, Martin; Stickel, Anna; Binder, Hennriette; Heinz, Andreas; Richter, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify if psychological distress may contribute to treatment outcome in alcohol-addicted patients during a follow-up period of 5 months after detoxification. As part of a prospective, multicenter, randomized study in relapse prevention, patients' levels of psychological distress were assessed using the Symptome Checklist (SCL-90-R). At study inclusion, all patients were detoxified and showed no more withdrawal symptoms. The patients who relapsed during the 5-month follow-up period were compared with those who remained abstinent. Predictors for relapse were investigated in a logistic regression. First, a significant difference in initial psychological distress between patients who stayed abstinent and patients who relapsed was found: following detoxification, patients who relapsed scored significantly higher on the SCL-90-R at study inclusion. In addition, psychological distress differed over time in both groups. Second, patients without relapse showed a larger decrease in some SCL-90-R scales between the beginning and the end of the observation period than patients who relapsed. Third, the logistic regression analyses showed that high scores on the overall score GSI (Global Severity Index) of the SCL-90-R can be seen as a predictor for future relapse. The SCL-90-R may be a useful instrument to predict relapse. As our study indicates that high levels of psychological distress increases the risk of relapse, specific interventions may be targeted at this risk factor. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  3. APPROACHING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION ON BASE OF LOWERING RISKS OF UKRAINIAN CONSUMERS AT WINE MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    A. Starostina; V. Kravchenko

    2016-01-01

    Development of theoretical principles of conception of the perceived risk is considered. Methodology of marketing research of the perceived risks at the market of dry wine of Kyiv is shown. Searching questions, hypotheses, methods of statistical verification of hypotheses of marketing research are shown. Estimation of dry wine customers of separate components of the perceived risk and strategies of their decline are described. Concrete directions of the development of market strategy and mark...

  4. Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... their drinking causes distress and harm. It includes alcoholism and alcohol abuse. Alcoholism, or alcohol dependence, is a disease that causes ... referrals. NIH: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism

  5. Poor impulse control predicts inelastic demand for nicotine but not alcohol in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diergaarde, Leontien; van Mourik, Yvar; Pattij, Tommy; Schoffelmeer, Anton N M; De Vries, Taco J

    2012-05-01

    Tobacco and alcohol dependence are characterized by continued use despite deleterious health, social and occupational consequences, implying that addicted individuals pay a high price for their use. In behavioral economic terms, such persistent consumption despite increased costs can be conceptualized as inelastic demand. Recent animal studies demonstrated that high-impulsive individuals are more willing to work for nicotine or cocaine infusions than their low-impulsive counterparts, indicating that this trait might be causally related to inelastic drug demand. By employing progressive ratio schedules of reinforcement combined with a behavioral economics approach of analysis, we determined whether trait impulsivity is associated with an insensitivity of nicotine or alcohol consumption to price increments. Rats were trained on a delayed discounting task, measuring impulsive choice. Hereafter, high- and low-impulsive rats were selected and trained to nose poke for intravenous nicotine or oral alcohol. Upon stable self-administration on a continuous reinforcement schedule, the price (i.e. response requirement) was increased. Demand curves, depicting the relationship between price and consumption, were produced using Hursh's exponential demand equation. Similar to human observations, nicotine and alcohol consumption in rats fitted this equation, thereby demonstrating the validity of our model. Moreover, high-impulsive rats displayed inelastic nicotine demand, as their nicotine consumption was less sensitive to price increments as compared with that in low-impulsive rats. Impulsive choice was not related to differences in alcohol demand elasticity. Our model seems well suited for studying nicotine and alcohol demand in rats and, as such, might contribute to our understanding of tobacco and alcohol dependence. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction Biology © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Predictive value of ALT levels for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Siddharth; Jensen, Donald; Hart, John; Mohanty, Smruti R

    2013-10-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients with elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) generally undergo a liver biopsy to evaluate for possible non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) or advanced fibrosis. However, patients with normal ALT could also have advanced stages of NAFLD. To determine ALT value that will accurately predict NASH and advanced fibrosis using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) analysis. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data of an ethnically diverse cohort of biopsy proven NAFLD patients were retrospectively analysed under univariate and multivariate analyses. Liver biopsies were scored using NASH clinical research network (NASH CRN) system. AUROC were performed for NAFLD Activity Score ≥5 (NASH) and fibrosis score ≥2 (advanced fibrosis). Two hundred and twenty-two patients were analysed. Fifty six (23%) had normal ALT. There was no difference in the rate of advanced fibrosis between normal and elevated ALT (26.8% vs. 18.1%, P = 0.19). However, significantly lower percentage of normal ALT group had NASH compared with elevated ALT group (10.7% vs. 28.9%, P ALT group had NASH or advanced fibrosis, whereas 53% of elevated ALT had no NASH or advanced fibrosis. Higher ALT values correlated with higher specificity, but lower sensitivity for both NASH and advanced fibrosis. AUROC for ALT level correlating NASH and advanced fibrosis were 0.62 and 0.46 respectively. There is no optimal ALT level to predict NASH and advanced fibrosis. Metabolic risk factors should be evaluated to select patients for a liver biopsy to confirm NASH and advanced fibrosis. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. APPROACHING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION ON BASE OF LOWERING RISKS OF UKRAINIAN CONSUMERS AT WINE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Starostina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development of theoretical principles of conception of the perceived risk is considered. Methodology of marketing research of the perceived risks at the market of dry wine of Kyiv is shown. Searching questions, hypotheses, methods of statistical verification of hypotheses of marketing research are shown. Estimation of dry wine customers of separate components of the perceived risk and strategies of their decline are described. Concrete directions of the development of market strategy and marketing-mix, which take into account the estimation of the perceived risks and strategies of their diminishing, are offered.

  8. Recall of Point-of-Sale Marketing Predicts Cigar and E-Cigarette Use among Texas Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasch, Keryn E; Nicksic, Nicole E; Opara, Samuel C; Jackson, Christian; Harrell, Melissa B; Perry, Cheryl L

    2017-10-23

    While research has documented associations between recall of point-of sale tobacco marketing and youth tobacco use, much of the research is cross-sectional and focused on cigarettes. The present longitudinal study examined recall of tobacco marketing at the point-of-sale and multiple types of tobacco use six months later. The Texas Adolescent Tobacco Advertising and Marketing Surveillance System (TATAMS) is a large-scale, representative study of 6th, 8th, and 10th graders in 79 middle and high schools in five counties in Texas. Weighted logistic regression examined associations between recall of tobacco advertisements and products on display at baseline and ever use, current use, and susceptibility to use for cigarette, e-cigarette, cigar, and smokeless products six months later. Students' recall of signs marketing e-cigarettes at baseline predicted ever e-cigarette use and increased susceptibility to use e-cigarettes at follow-up across all store types. Recall of e-cigarette displays only predicted susceptibility to use e-cigarettes at follow-up, across all store types. Both recall of signs marketing cigars and cigar product displays predicted current and ever cigar smoking and increased susceptibility to smoking cigars at follow-up, across all store types. Recall of cigarette and smokeless product marketing and displays was not associated with tobacco use measures. The point-of-sale environment continues to be an important influence on youth tobacco use. Restrictions on point-of-sale marketing, particularly around schools, are warranted. Cross-sectional studies have shown that exposure to point-of-sale cigarette marketing is associated with use of cigarettes among youth, though longitudinal evidence of the same is sparse and mixed. Cross-sectional studies have found that recall of cigars, smokeless product, and e-cigarette tobacco marketing at point-of-sale is associated with curiosity about tobacco use or intentions to use tobacco among youth, but limited

  9. Innovations in Defense Acquisition: Asymmetric Information, Mechanism Design and Prediction Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-03

    planning tools suggested the deadline could be met. The Siemens market, like HP, used a fully computerized double auction market with a software...Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. This market is tied to macroeconomic outcomes, such as non-farm payrolls , retail sales, levels of the Institute

  10. Freshman year alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predict time to college graduation and subsequent adult roles and independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhite, Emily R; Ashenhurst, James R; Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

    2017-06-15

    This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N = 2,050). The second analyses corresponded to a subset of participants at age 27 (N = 575). Measures included self-reported substance use, adult role adoption, and university reported graduation dates. Results indicated that frequent binge drinking and marijuana use during freshman year predicted delayed college graduation. Those who took longer to graduate were more likely to have lower incomes and were less likely to obtain a graduate degree. Taking 5-6 years to graduate was associated with greater likelihood of alcohol-related problems. Findings support the importance of interventions during freshman year of college to decrease substance use and promote timely graduation.

  11. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  12. Tobacco and alcohol billboards in 50 Chicago neighborhoods: market segmentation to sell dangerous products to the poor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackbarth, D P; Silvestri, B; Cosper, W

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes a study of billboard advertising of tobacco and alcohol products in the city of Chicago. All billboards were counted and their advertising themes noted. These data were matched with information on population and race from the 1990 census in order to document which geographic areas of the city, if any, had excess tobacco or alcohol billboards. The data revealed that minority wards were burdened with three times as many tobacco billboards and five times as many alcohol billboards when compared to white wards. The findings are congruent with studies conducted in other urban areas, which demonstrate a consistent pattern of tobacco and alcohol advertisers targeting poor and minority neighborhoods for outdoor advertising of their dangerous products. Chicago legislative initiatives based on the billboard study are described.

  13. Relational aggression, positive urgency and negative urgency: predicting alcohol use and consequences among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W

    2014-09-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions.

  14. The drunk utilitarian: blood alcohol concentration predicts utilitarian responses in moral dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duke, Aaron A; Bègue, Laurent

    2015-01-01

    The hypothetical moral dilemma known as the trolley problem has become a methodological cornerstone in the psychological study of moral reasoning and yet, there remains considerable debate as to the meaning of utilitarian responding in these scenarios. It is unclear whether utilitarian responding results primarily from increased deliberative reasoning capacity or from decreased aversion to harming others. In order to clarify this question, we conducted two field studies to examine the effects of alcohol intoxication on utilitarian responding. Alcohol holds promise in clarifying the above debate because it impairs both social cognition (i.e., empathy) and higher-order executive functioning. Hence, the direction of the association between alcohol and utilitarian vs. non-utilitarian responding should inform the relative importance of both deliberative and social processing systems in influencing utilitarian preference. In two field studies with a combined sample of 103 men and women recruited at two bars in Grenoble, France, participants were presented with a moral dilemma assessing their willingness to sacrifice one life to save five others. Participants' blood alcohol concentrations were found to positively correlate with utilitarian preferences (r=.31, pmoral reasoning are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Do Negative Emotions Predict Alcohol Consumption, Saturated Fat Intake, and Physical Activity in Older Adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, Stephen D.; Miller, Peter M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined anger, depression, and stress as related to alcohol consumption, saturated fat intake, and physical activity. Participants were 23 older adults enrolled in either an outpatient or in-residence executive health program. Participants completed (a) a health-risk appraisal assessing medical history and current health habits, (b)…

  16. Alcoholism treatment adherence: older age predicts better adherence and drinking outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oslin, David W; Pettinati, Helen; Volpicelli, Joseph R

    2002-01-01

    Adherence to treatment has been demonstrated to be an important factor for remission from alcohol dependence. The authors compared therapy and medication adherence for treatment of alcohol dependence in older adults with adherence in younger adults. All subjects were participants in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled efficacy trial of naltrexone for the treatment of alcohol dependence. All subjects received a medically-based psychosocial intervention focused on motivating patients to change and on adherence to treatment. The therapy is nonconfrontational and is delivered by a nurse-practitioner. Compared with younger adults, older adults had greater attendance at therapy sessions and greater adherence to the medication. Age-group was the only pretreatment factor associated with adherence. The greater adherence in older adults translated to less relapse than in younger adults. Treatment for alcohol dependence can be effective for older adults. Older adults appear to respond well to a medically-oriented program that is supportive and individualized. In fact, findings from this study suggest that older adults can be treated in mixed-age treatment settings when psychotherapeutic strategies are used that are age-appropriate and delivered on an individual basis.

  17. Media as a "Super Peer": How Adolescents Interpret Media Messages Predicts Their Perception of Alcohol and Tobacco Use Norms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmore, Kristen C; Scull, Tracy M; Kupersmidt, Janis B

    2017-02-01

    Adolescents' media environment offers information about who uses substances and what happens as a result-how youth interpret these messages likely determines their impact on normative beliefs about alcohol and tobacco use. The Message Interpretation Processing (MIP) theory predicts that substance use norms are influenced by cognitions associated with the interpretation of media messages. This cross-sectional study examined whether high school adolescents' (n = 817, 48 % female, 64 % white) media-related cognitions (i.e., similarity, realism, desirability, identification) were related to their perceptions of substance use norms. Results revealed that adolescents' media-related cognitions explained a significant amount of variance in perceived social approval for and estimated prevalence of peer alcohol and tobacco use, above and beyond previous use and demographic covariates. Compared to prevalence norms, social approval norms were more closely related to adolescents' media-related cognitions. Results suggest that critical thinking about media messages can inhibit normative perceptions that are likely to increase adolescents' interest in alcohol and tobacco use.

  18. Do unfavourable alcohol, smoking, nutrition and physical activity predict sustained leisure time sedentary behaviour? A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nooijen, Carla F J; Möller, Jette; Forsell, Yvonne; Ekblom, Maria; Galanti, Maria R; Engström, Karin

    2017-08-01

    Comparing lifestyle of people remaining sedentary during longer periods of their life with those favourably changing their behaviour can provide cues to optimize interventions targeting sedentary behaviour. The objective of this study was to determine lifestyle predictors of sustained leisure time sedentary behaviour and assess whether these predictors were dependent on gender, age, socioeconomic position and occupational sedentary behaviour. Data from a large longitudinal population-based cohort of adults (aged 18-97years) in Stockholm responding to public health surveys in 2010 and 2014 were analysed (n=49,133). Leisure time sedentary behaviour was defined as >3h per day of leisure sitting time e.g. watching TV, reading or using tablet. Individuals classified as sedentary at baseline (n=9562) were subsequently categorized as remaining sedentary (n=6357) or reduced sedentary behaviour (n=3205) at follow-up. Lifestyle predictors were unfavourable alcohol consumption, smoking, nutrition, and physical activity. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated, adjusting for potential confounders. Unfavourable alcohol consumption (OR=1.22, CI:1.11-1.34), unfavourable candy- or cake consumption (OR=1.15, CI:1.05-1.25), and unfavourable physical activity in different contexts were found to predict sustained sedentary behaviour, with negligible differences according to gender, age, socioeconomic position and occupational sedentary behaviour. People with unfavourable lifestyle profiles regarding alcohol, sweets, or physical activity are more likely to remain sedentary compared to sedentary persons with healthier lifestyle. The impact of combining interventions to reduce leisure time sedentary behaviour with reducing alcohol drinking, sweet consumption and increasing physical activity should be tested as a promising strategy for behavioural modification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Competitive Patterns in the Danish Organic Industry & its Usefulness in Predicting Development in other EU Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Jens; Linneberg, Mai Skjøtt

    2003-01-01

    The organic market in Denmark is not a niche market any longer as it was in the late 1980s. The development has followed the typical pattern for diffusion of innovations and by 2002 the market supply seemed to have surpassed the equilibrium supply by around 30% and a potential adjustment is ahead...... for organic development be expected in other countries? Will the supply in other EU markets also surpass market equilibrium? Are the Danish experiences with respect to policy choices and power-play of dominant players in processing and distribution industry of general relevance? Are the maturity gains...... observed in the Danish organic industry potential in other markets? Is increased international trade beneficial?...

  20. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Sofin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1% of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9% dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.

  1. Spring break versus spring broken: predictive utility of spring break alcohol intentions and willingness at varying levels of extremity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litt, Dana M; Lewis, Melissa A; Patrick, Megan E; Rodriguez, Lindsey; Neighbors, Clayton; Kaysen, Debra L

    2014-02-01

    Within the domain of risk-related behavior, many times the decision to engage is not a product of premeditation or intention. The prototype willingness model was created to capture and explain the unintended element of risk behavior. The present study aimed to evaluate the importance of willingness versus intention, two important constructs within the prototype willingness model, in relation to spring break drinking behavior when assessed at both high and low extremities. College undergraduates (N = 275) completed questionnaires prior to spring break regarding their anticipated spring break activities. Willingness and intention were assessed for different levels of risk. Specifically, participants indicated the extent to which they intended to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out; and the extent to which they were willing to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out. When classes resumed following spring break, the students indicated the extent to which they actually (a) got drunk and (b) drank enough to black out or pass out. Results demonstrated that when the health-related risk was lower (i.e., getting drunk), intention was a stronger predictor of behavior than was willingness. However, as the level of risk increased (i.e., getting drunk enough to black out or pass out), willingness more strongly predicted behavior. The present study suggests that willingness and intentions differentially predict spring break alcohol-related behavior depending on the extremity of behavior in question. Implications regarding alcohol interventions are discussed.

  2. CONTRIBUTION OF FRONTAL CEREBRAL BLOOD FLOW MEASURED BY 99mTc-BICISATE SPECT AND EXECUTIVE FUNCTION DEFICITS TO PREDICTING TREATMENT OUTCOME IN ALCOHOL-DEPENDENT PATIENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Noël, Xavier; Sferrazza, Rita; Van der Linden, Martial; Paternot, Jacques; Verhas, Michel; Hanak, Catherine; Pelc, Isidore; Verbanck, Paul

    2017-01-01

    — Aim: To determine whether inhibition and working memory deficits, and reduced regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) (previously shown to be related), measured at the end of a detoxification programme, predict alcoholic relapse 2 months later. Methods: Twenty uncomplicated alcoholic inpatients were investigated at the end of detoxification, at least 7 days since the last dose of diazepam, and a mean of 18.8 days since the last drink. Their performance was assessed on the inhibition (Hayling) t...

  3. Generation of predictive price and trading volume patterns in a model of dynamically evolving free market supply and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Wang

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and share demand as a function of price deviation from moving averages. Price charts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolving supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with dependence on price history.

  4. On Setting Day-Ahead Equity Trading Risk Limits: VaR Prediction at Market Close or Open?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria Fuertes

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight close-to-open price variation. The benchmark is the bivariate VaR modeling approach proposed by Ahoniemi et al. that constructs the forecast at the market close instead and, accordingly, it models separately the daytime and overnight return processes and their covariance. For a small cap portfolio, the bivariate VaR approach affords superior predictive ability than the ex post overnight VaR approach whereas for a large cap portfolio the results are reversed. The contrast indicates that price discovery at the market open is less efficient for small capitalization, thinly traded stocks.

  5. Market powers predict reciprocal grooming in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Wei

    Full Text Available Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming.

  6. Market powers predict reciprocal grooming in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Qi, Xiao-Guang; Guo, Song-Tao; Zhao, Da-Peng; Zhang, Peng; Huang, Kang; Li, Bao-Guo

    2012-01-01

    Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers) directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers) and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming.

  7. Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

  8. Alcohol use and alcohol/marijuana use during the most recent sexual experience differentially predict characteristics of the sexual experience among sexually active young adult drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairlie, Anne M; Garcia, Tracey A; Lee, Christine M; Lewis, Melissa A

    2018-07-01

    Few studies have examined associations between using alcohol only and using both alcohol and marijuana with sexual behavior on specific occasions. The current study examined alcohol and marijuana use during the most recent sexual experience in association with relationship characteristics, psychological issues, and condom use. Young adult drinkers aged 18-25 who reported not using a condom during sex in the past month were recruited nationally. An analytic subsample (N = 378) was identified based on substance use during the most recent sexual experience [53% female, 70% Caucasian; mean age = 22.42 years (SD = 1.90)]. Using logistic regression, two dummy codes compared the alcohol use only group (n = 197) and the both alcohol and marijuana group (n = 95) to the group who used neither substance (n = 86). Participant sex, drinking frequency, and number of sexual partners were included as covariates. The alcohol only group and the both alcohol and marijuana group had greater odds of being with a casual acquaintance and loss of respect compared to the group who used neither substance. The alcohol only group had greater odds of being with someone they just met and embarrassment compared to the group who used neither substance. No associations were found for condom use or emotional difficulties. Preventative interventions may need to address both alcohol and marijuana to more effectively reduce risky behaviors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Serum adipokines might predict liver histology findings in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamali, Raika; Razavizade, Mohsen; Arj, Abbas; Aarabi, Mohammad Hossein

    2016-06-07

    To assess significance of serum adipokines to determine the histological severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Patients with persistent elevation in serum aminotransferase levels and well-defined characteristics of fatty liver at ultrasound were enrolled. Individuals with a history of alcohol consumption, hepatotoxic medication, viral hepatitis or known liver disease were excluded. Liver biopsy was performed to confirm non-alcoholic liver disease (NAFLD). The degrees of liver steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis were determined based on the non-alcoholic fatty liver activity score (NAS) by a single expert pathologist. Patients with a NAS of five or higher were considered to have steatohepatitis. Those with a NAS of two or lower were defined as simple fatty liver. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the independent association of adipokines with histological findings. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to determine cut-off values of serum adipokines to discriminate the grades of liver steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis. Fifty-four participants aged 37.02 ± 9.82 were enrolled in the study. Higher serum levels of visfatin, IL-8, TNF-α levels were associated independently with steatosis grade of more than 33% [β = 1.08 (95%CI: 1.03-1.14), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.008-1.07), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.004-1.08), P < 0.05]. Elevated serum IL-6 and IL-8 levels were associated independently with advanced lobular inflammation [β = 1.4 (95%CI: 1.09-1.8), 1.07 (95%CI: 1.003-1.15), P < 0.05]. Similarly, higher TNF-α, resistin, and hepcidin levels were associated independently with advanced fibrosis stage [β = 1.06 (95%CI: 1.002-1.12), 19.86 (95%CI: 2.79-141.19), 560.72 (95%CI: 5.98-5255.33), P < 0.05]. Serum IL-8 and TNF-α values were associated independently with the NAS score, considering a NAS score of 5 as the reference value [β = 1.05 (95%CI: 1.01-1.1), 1.13 (95%CI: 1.04-1.22), P < 0.05]. Certain adipokines may

  10. Variables predicting elevated portal pressure in alcoholic liver disease. Results of a multivariate analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogsgaard, K; Christensen, E; Gluud, C

    1987-01-01

    In 46 alcoholic patients the association of wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure with other variables (clinical, histologic, hemodynamic, and liver function data) was studied by means of multiple regression analysis, taking the wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure as the dependent variable. Four...... variables showed significant independent association with the wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure: indocyanine green clearance (p = 0.031), degree of necrosis (p = 0.023), degree of hepatic architectural destruction (graded as: preserved architecture, nodules alternating with preserved architecture...... in these four variables....

  11. Prediction of incidence and stability of alcohol use disorders by latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

    2017-10-01

    Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Prediction of Smoking, Alcohol, Drugs, and Psychoactive Drugs Abuse Based on Emotional Dysregulation and Child Abuse Experience in People with Borderline Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M GannadiFarnood

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This research was an attempt to predict the tendency of people having borderline personality traits to smoking, drinking alcohol, and taking psychoactive drugs based on emotional dysregulation and child abuse. Method: This study employed a correlation method which is categorized in descriptive category. A sample including 600 male and female bachelor students of Tabriz University was selected by cluster sampling. Then, high risk behaviors scale, Emotional dysregulation Scale, Child abuse scale, and borderline personality scale (STB were distributed among this group. Findings: Stepwise multiple regression analysis suggested that emotional dysregulation and child abuse significantly predicted varying degrees of smoking, drug, and alcohol usage. Conclusion: The research findings suggest the basic role of initial biological vulnerability in terms of emotional regulation (dysregulation and invalidating family environment (child abuse in the prediction of catching the disorder of borderline personality traits and producing high riskbehaviorssuch as alcohol drink and drug usage.

  13. Marketing marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Karel Jan van Alsem

    2013-01-01

    In deze installatierede betoogt Karel Jan Alsem dat marketing een grotere strategische rol in organisaties zou moeten krijgen. Want marketing is bij uitstek de verbinding tussen klantwensen en het DNA van een organisatie. Doordat merken gemiddeld voor mensen niet heel belangrijk zijn, is goede

  14. Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chih, Ming-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

  15. Does caffeine and alcohol intake before pregnancy predict the occurrence of spontaneous abortion?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolstrup, J S; Kjær, S. K.; Munk, C

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Consumption of caffeine and alcohol is suspected to affect pregnancy outcome. Use of both stimulants is widespread and even minor effects on fetal viability are of public health interest. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study using prospective data from a population......-based cohort comprising 11088 women aged 20-29 years. From this cohort, women who experienced either a spontaneous abortion (n = 303) or who gave birth (n = 1381) during follow-up [mean time: 2.1 years (range: 1.6-3.4)] were selected. Associations between self-reported exposures to caffeine and/or alcohol...... at enrolment and spontaneous abortion were analysed by means of logistic regression. RESULTS: Compared with women with a pre-pregnancy intake of caffeine per day, the adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for spontaneous abortion was 1.26 (0.77-2.06), 1.45 (0.87-2.41), 1.44 (0.87-2.37) and 1...

  16. Latino Immigrants' Biological Parents' Histories of Substance Use Problems in Their Country of Origin Predict Their Pre- and Post-Immigration Alcohol Use Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackson, Timothy C; De La Rosa, Mario; Sanchez, Mariana; Li, Tan

    2015-01-01

    No studies to date have assessed whether recent young adult (aged 18-34) Latino immigrants' biological parents' histories of substance use problems (BPHSUP) in their country of origin predict their alcohol use problems at pre- and post-immigration to the United States (US). BPHSUP in their country of origin were assessed via interviews conducted by bilingual Latino researchers with recent Latino immigrants primarily from Cuba and Central and South America recruited through respondent-driven sampling at the time of their immigration to southeastern US. Three waves of data were collected to document Latino immigrants' severity of alcohol use problems at pre-immigration and 2 annual post-immigration follow-up assessments. BPHSUP+/- status was used as a predictor of Latinos' (N = 452; 45.8% female, 54.2% male) Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores at pre- and post-immigration with age, education, and income as covariates as wells as odds ratios for AUDIT classifications of hazardous use, harmful use, and dependence. BPHSUP+ status predicted Latino immigrants' higher AUDIT scores pre- and post-immigration by gender (P immigrants of BPHSUP- status, controlling for age, education, and income. BPHSUP+ status predicted odds ratios of 3.45 and 2.91 for AUDIT alcohol dependence classification for men and women, respectively. This study documents that BPHSUP+/- status in their country of origin predict their young adult Latino offspring's severity of alcohol use problems pre- and post-immigration. These results may inform (1) community-based health care providers to screen recent young adult Latino immigrants for their BPHSUP+/- status and severity of alcohol use problems to redirect trajectories away from alcohol use disorders toward more normative post-immigration outcomes through culturally relevant prevention services and (2) future research advantages of differential susceptibility theory. Implications for future research and the need for replication

  17. Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic literature review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shannon Lange

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population of Latin America and the Caribbean, by country, in 2012. Methods Three steps were taken: a comprehensive, systematic literature search; meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model for countries with published studies; and regression modelling (data prediction for countries with either no published studies or too few to obtain an estimate. Results Based on 24 existing studies, the pooled prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population was estimated for Brazil (15.2%; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 10.4%–20.8% and Mexico (1.2%; 95%CI: 0.0%–2.7%. The prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population was predicted for 31 countries and ranged from 4.8% (95%CI: 4.2%–5.4% in Cuba to 23.3% (95%CI: 20.1%–26.5% in Grenada. Conclusions Greater prevention efforts and measures are needed in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean to prevent pregnant women from consuming alcohol during pregnancy and decrease the rates of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder. Additional high quality studies on the prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Latin America and the Caribbean are also needed.

  18. High-performance detection and early prediction of septic shock for alcohol-use disorder patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Calvert

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: Analysis of the higher order correlations and trends between relevant clinical measurements using the InSight algorithm leads to more accurate detection and prediction of septic shock, even in cases where diagnosis may be confounded by AUD.

  19. Variables predicting elevated portal pressure in alcoholic liver disease. Results of a multivariate analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogsgaard, K; Christensen, E; Gluud, C

    1987-01-01

    In 46 alcoholic patients the association of wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure with other variables (clinical, histologic, hemodynamic, and liver function data) was studied by means of multiple regression analysis, taking the wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure as the dependent variable. Four...... variables showed significant independent association with the wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure: indocyanine green clearance (p = 0.031), degree of necrosis (p = 0.023), degree of hepatic architectural destruction (graded as: preserved architecture, nodules alternating with preserved architecture......, totally destroyed architecture) (p = 2.3 X 10(-6) and sex (p = 0.0024), male sex being associated with higher wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure. The multiple coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.63; thus, 63% of the variation in the wedged-to-free hepatic-vein pressure was 'explained' by variation...

  20. Policy-Relevant Behaviors Predict Heavier Drinking in Both On and Off Premises and Mediate the Relationship Between Heavier Alcohol Consumption and Age, Gender, and Socioeconomic Status-Analysis from the International Alcohol Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl

    2016-02-01

    Our goal was to investigate the role of behaviors amenable to policy change in mediating the relationship between alcohol consumption in off and on premises, age, and 2 measures of socioeconomic status (education and income). A cross-sectional general population survey was analyzed by using Bayesian path analysis to understand direct and mediating pathways. A total of 1,900 drinkers (past 6 months), aged 18 to 65 years, living in households with landline phones participated in the study. Measures were as follows: typical quantities of alcohol consumed per occasion, frequency of drinking, both off and on premise; gender, age groups; and years of education, personal income, prices paid, time of purchase, and liking for alcohol advertisements. Later times of purchase predicted larger quantities consumed (on and off premise) and more frequent drinking (on premise only). Younger people and males purchased later, and this mediated their heavier consumption. Lower prices paid predicted larger quantities consumed (on premise) and higher frequency of drinking (off premise). Younger and male respondents paid lower prices, and this mediated larger quantities consumed on premise and more frequent drinking off premise. Less well educated paid lower prices, and this mediated drinking more frequently off premise among this group. Liking for alcohol ads predicted drinking larger quantities and higher frequency both off and on premise. Younger and male respondents reported greater liking for ads, and this mediated their consumption of larger quantities and more frequent drinking both on and off premise. Those with higher income drank larger amounts on premise and more frequently on and off, but there were no mediating effects from the policy-relevant variables. Heavier drinking patterns by young people and those less well educated could be ameliorated by attention to alcohol policy. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  1. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Chebyshev polynomial functions based locally recurrent neuro-fuzzy information system for prediction of financial and energy market data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Parida

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper Chebyshev polynomial functions based locally recurrent neuro-fuzzy information system is presented for the prediction and analysis of financial and electrical energy market data. The normally used TSK-type feedforward fuzzy neural network is unable to take the full advantage of the use of the linear fuzzy rule base in accurate input–output mapping and hence the consequent part of the rule base is made nonlinear using polynomial or arithmetic basis functions. Further the Chebyshev polynomial functions provide an expanded nonlinear transformation to the input space thereby increasing its dimension for capturing the nonlinearities and chaotic variations in financial or energy market data streams. Also the locally recurrent neuro-fuzzy information system (LRNFIS includes feedback loops both at the firing strength layer and the output layer to allow signal flow both in forward and backward directions, thereby making the LRNFIS mimic a dynamic system that provides fast convergence and accuracy in predicting time series fluctuations. Instead of using forward and backward least mean square (FBLMS learning algorithm, an improved Firefly-Harmony search (IFFHS learning algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the consequent part and feedback loop parameters for better stability and convergence. Several real world financial and energy market time series databases are used for performance validation of the proposed LRNFIS model.

  3. Using Rényi parameter to improve the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy on stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiaqi; Gu, Rongbao

    2016-04-01

    This paper generalizes the method of traditional singular value decomposition entropy by incorporating orders q of Rényi entropy. We analyze the predictive power of the entropy based on trajectory matrix using Shanghai Composite Index and Dow Jones Index data in both static test and dynamic test. In the static test on SCI, results of global granger causality tests all turn out to be significant regardless of orders selected. But this entropy fails to show much predictability in American stock market. In the dynamic test, we find that the predictive power can be significantly improved in SCI by our generalized method but not in DJI. This suggests that noises and errors affect SCI more frequently than DJI. In the end, results obtained using different length of sliding window also corroborate this finding.

  4. Life Course Trajectories of Labour Market Participation among Young Adults Who Experienced Severe Alcohol-Related Health Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tapio Paljärvi

    Full Text Available Long-term employment trajectories of young problem drinkers are poorly understood.We constructed retrospective labour market participation histories at ages 18-34 of 64 342 persons born in 1969-1982. Beginning from the year of each subject's 18th birthday, we extracted information from the records of Statistics Finland on educational attainment, main type of economic activity, months in employment, and months in unemployment for a minimum of seven years (range 7-16 years. We used information on the timing of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in the same period to define problem drinkers with early onset limited course, early onset persistent course, and late onset problem drinking.Early onset limited course problem drinkers improved their employment considerably by age, whereas early onset persistent problem drinkers experienced a constant decline in their employment by age. From the age of 18 to 34, early onset persistent problem drinkers were in employment merely 12% of the time, in comparison with 39% among the early onset limited course problem drinkers, and 58% among the general population.These results indicate that young adults who were retrospectively defined as having early onset persistent course problem drinking were extensively marginalized from the labour market early on during their life course, and that their employment trajectory was significantly worse compared to other problem drinkers.

  5. Life Course Trajectories of Labour Market Participation among Young Adults Who Experienced Severe Alcohol-Related Health Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paljärvi, Tapio; Martikainen, Pekka; Pensola, Tiina; Leinonen, Taina; Herttua, Kimmo; Mäkelä, Pia

    2015-01-01

    Long-term employment trajectories of young problem drinkers are poorly understood. We constructed retrospective labour market participation histories at ages 18-34 of 64 342 persons born in 1969-1982. Beginning from the year of each subject's 18th birthday, we extracted information from the records of Statistics Finland on educational attainment, main type of economic activity, months in employment, and months in unemployment for a minimum of seven years (range 7-16 years). We used information on the timing of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in the same period to define problem drinkers with early onset limited course, early onset persistent course, and late onset problem drinking. Early onset limited course problem drinkers improved their employment considerably by age, whereas early onset persistent problem drinkers experienced a constant decline in their employment by age. From the age of 18 to 34, early onset persistent problem drinkers were in employment merely 12% of the time, in comparison with 39% among the early onset limited course problem drinkers, and 58% among the general population. These results indicate that young adults who were retrospectively defined as having early onset persistent course problem drinking were extensively marginalized from the labour market early on during their life course, and that their employment trajectory was significantly worse compared to other problem drinkers.

  6. Cross-selling through database marketing : a mixed data factor analyzer for data augmentation and prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamakura, W.A.; Wedel, M.; de Rosa, F.; Mazzon, J.A.

    An important aspect of the new orientation on customer relationship marketing is the use of customer transaction databases for the cross-selling of new services and products. In this study, we propose a mixed data factor analyzer that combines information from a survey with data from the customer

  7. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

    2010-01-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  8. Imitation analysis : Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langley, D.J.; Pals, N.; Ortt, J.R.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of estimating the likelihood that a person with particular characteristics will imitate a particular new behaviour (i.e. the use of an innovation). This estimation can be used to provide a new form of forecast for the likely market demand

  9. Alcohol Alert

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of Alcohol Consumption Alcohol's Effects on the Body Alcohol Use Disorder Fetal Alcohol Exposure Support & Treatment Alcohol Policy Special ... 466 KB] No. 81: Exploring Treatment Options for Alcohol Use Disorders [ PDF - 539K] No. 80: Alcohol and HIV/AIDS: ...

  10. Limbic activation to novel versus familiar food cues predicts food preference and alcohol intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaelides, Michael; Miller, Michael L; Subrize, Mike; Kim, Ronald; Robison, Lisa; Hurd, Yasmin L; Wang, Gene-Jack; Volkow, Nora D; Thanos, Panayotis K

    2013-05-28

    Expectation of salient rewards and novelty seeking are processes implicated in substance use disorders but the neurobiological substrates underlying these associations are not well understood. To better understand the regional circuitry of novelty and reward preference, rats were conditioned to pair unique cues with bacon, an initially novel food, or chow, a familiar food. In the same animals, after training, cue-induced brain activity was measured, and the relationships between activity and preference for three rewards, the conditioned foods and ethanol (EtOH), were separately determined. Activity in response to the food paired cues was measured using brain glucose metabolism (BGluM). Rats favoring bacon-paired (BAP) cues had increased BGluM in mesocorticolimbic brain regions after exposure to these cues, while rats favoring chow-paired (CHP) cues showed relative deactivation in these regions. Rats exhibiting BAP cue-induced activation in prefrontal cortex (PFC) also consumed more EtOH while rats with cortical activation in response to CHP cues showed lower EtOH consumption. Additionally, long-term stable expression levels of PFC Grin2a, a subunit of the NMDA receptor, correlated with individual differences in EtOH preference insomuch that rats with high EtOH preference had enduringly low PFC Grin2a mRNA expression. No other glutamatergic, dopaminergic or endocannabinoid genes studied showed this relationship. Overall, these results suggest that natural variation in mesocorticolimbic sensitivity to reward-paired cues underlies behavioral preferences for and vulnerability to alcohol abuse, and support the notion of common neuronal circuits involved in food- and drug-seeking behavior. The findings also provide evidence that PFC NMDA-mediated glutamate signaling may modulate these associations. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Analysis of the development and prediction of the rate of unemployment in selected countries with market and transitive economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich Maca

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is aimed at the presentation of findings achieved in the study of the dynamics and trends of the rate of unemployment in selected countries with market and transitive economy in the reference period 1995–2001. In addition to the description of developmental trends of analysed time series by means of trend functions of linear, quadratic, exponential, logarithmic, power and inverse types their informative ability was verified as a starting base for the realization of point prediction of investigated events for 2005. With given 95% probability, minimum and maximum values are determined of the evaluated macroeconomic indicator for a defined time horizon.

  12. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005-2007) and times...

  13. Factores predictores de uso problemático de alcohol en personas atendidas en una sala de emergencia Predictive factors of alcohol use problems among patients visiting an emergency room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabián Fiestas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos. Valorar el efecto predictivo de características claves de pacientes atendidos en salas de emergencia para detectar casos de uso problemático de alcohol. Materiales y Métodos. La muestra de estudio estuvo constituida por 371 personas atendidas en el lapso de siete días completos de enero de 2005 en el servicio de emergencia de un hospital público de Lima, Perú. Se aplicó un cuestionario demográfico, el SIDUC/CICAD para uso reciente de sustancias psicoactivas en salas de emergencias (i.e., uso dentro de las seis horas previas a la atención y el AUDIT para uso problemático de alcohol en el último año. El análisis de regresión logística simple y multivariada permitió valorar el efecto predictor de la edad, sexo, especialidad del servicio de atención, presencia de daño físico y el uso reciente de alcohol para detectar casos problemáticos de su uso. Resultados. El odds de tener uso problemático de alcohol en los varones es 26 veces el odds de tener dicho problema entre las mujeres (pObjectives. To assess the predictive effect of key individual-level characteristics to identify cases of alcohol use problems among patients visiting an emergency room. Materials and methods. The study sample was composed of 371 people attending an emergency room in a public hospital in Lima, Peru, during a period of seven complete days in January, 2005. For data gathering, we used a questionnaire for demographic information, the SIDUC/CICAD for recent use (i.e., in the last 6 hours of psychoactive substances before arriving to the emergency room, and the AUDIT, to identify alcohol use problems in the last year. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive effect of age, sex, area of attention in the emergency room, presence of physical injuries and recent use of alcohol. Results. The odds of being a case of alcohol use problem for males is 26 times the odds of having that problem for females (p

  14. High-normal levels of hs-CRP predict the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver in healthy men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieun Lee

    Full Text Available We performed a follow-up study to address whether high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP levels within the normal range can predict the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD in healthy male subjects. Among15347 male workers between 30 and 59 years old who received annual health check-ups in 2002, a NAFLD-free cohort of 4,138 was followed through December 2009. Alcohol consumption was assessed with a questionnaire. At each visit, abdominal ultrasonography was performed to identify fatty liver disease. The COX proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the relationship between hs-CRP and incident NAFLD. During the follow-up period, 28.8% (1191 of 4138 of participants developed NAFLD. The hazard ratios of NAFLD were increased by hs-CRP categories within the normal range in the non-adjusted model and age-adjusted model. After adjusting for age, exercise, smoking, BMI, systolic BP, triglyceride, and fasting glucose, these incidences were only increased between the lowest and the highest hs-CRP categories. The risk for NAFLD increased as the hs-CRP level increased (p< 0.001. As the hs-CRP level increased within the healthy cohort, the risk of developing NAFLD increased. This trend remained true even if the hs-CRP level remained within the normal range. hs-CRP can be used as a predictor of NAFLD, as well as other obesity-associated diseases. Therefore, individuals with higher hs-CRP levels (even within the normal range may require appropriate follow-up and management to prevent NAFLD development.

  15. Ethyl carbamate in alcoholic beverages from Mexico (tequila, mezcal, bacanora, sotol) and Guatemala (cuxa): market survey and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Kanteres, Fotis; Kuballa, Thomas; López, Mercedes G; Rehm, Jürgen

    2009-01-01

    Ethyl carbamate (EC) is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110), and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16) were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (<0.15 mg/L). Risk assessment found the Margin of Exposure (MOE) in line with that of European spirits. It is therefore unlikely that EC plays a role in high rates of liver cirrhosis reported in Mexico.

  16. Ethyl Carbamate in Alcoholic Beverages from Mexico (Tequila, Mezcal, Bacanora, Sotol and Guatemala (Cuxa: Market Survey and Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Rehm

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethyl carbamate (EC is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110, and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16 were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (<0.15 mg/L. Risk assessment found the Margin of Exposure (MOE in line with that of European spirits. It is therefore unlikely that EC plays a role in high rates of liver cirrhosis reported in Mexico.

  17. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  18. Stock market efficiency in South Eastern Europe: testing return predictability and presence of calendar effects

    OpenAIRE

    Filipovski, Vladimir; Tevdovski, Dragan

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the calendar effects in ten South Eastern European (SEE) stock markets daily returns during the period 2007 - 2014. We focus on three calendar effects: the day of the week effect, the half month effect and the turn of the month effect. Specifically, we analyze existence of each calendar effect separately in the mean and in the volatility of the index returns. We apply standard regression models with dummy variables for the effects in the mean returns, while we apply GARCH(...

  19. Using internet-based data sources for Crypto-Currency market prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Majerčič, Rok

    2015-01-01

    Forecasting volatility of traditional financial instruments is a well known and widely addressed problem. In the past, researches addressed it by using technical and fundamental analysis. The former looks at the past price movement of a currency or a stock (their market value and trading volumes), while the latter analyses outside information which can cause fluctuations in the currency or stock value (e.g.: introducing a new product in the company can increase the value of company’s stocks, ...

  20. Predicting Intra-Day and Day of the Week Anomalies in Turkish Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Eyuboglu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available According to Efficient Market Hypothesis, investors cannot gain abnormal returns. But various anomalies such as day or intra-day effect which are frequently observed at the stock markets provide some abnormal returns to investors. In the literature, many studies have found various anomalies for different national and international stock markets. But most of the applied studies used aggregate data in their econometric analysis. The question is whether the same anomalies exist in sub-indexes such as communication, technology, sports and services, etc. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there are the same anomalies such as intra-day effect and day of the week effect for an aggregated index and 23 sub-indexes of Borsa Istanbul. The data which used in this study is daily and covers the period of 2005-2015 for Turkey. Findings show that there is evidence for intra-day effect in all 24 indexes and day of the week effect in 2 sub-indexes.

  1. PREDICTED IMPACTS OF PENSION REFORM ON THE LABOUR MARKET IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogusława Urbaniak

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Pension system reforms increasing retirement age and accentuating citizens’ individual responsibility for the amounts of their future pensions have effects on labour markets. This article provides an analysis of factors determining the interest of employees over 50, and even those over 45, in continued employment, as well as of relevant compulsion and risk factors. Some of the discussion deals with the assumptions underlying the Polish pension system reform and its likely effect on longer working lives. A hypothesis is formulated that for older employees to continue employment, working conditions must improve, as the responses of both older employees and their employers reveal insufficient sensitivity to the need to adapt the conditions to the capabilities of an ageing workforce. Yet, even if the necessary measures are taken, occupational stratification leading to the emergence of age-segmented labour market with low-skilled, precarious, and part-time jobs is unavoidable. The article is partly based on the results of a survey that a University of Łódź team conducted for the project Diagnosis of the current situation of women and men aged 50+ on the labour market in Poland, funded by the European Social Fund.

  2. Influence of Ethnicity on the Accuracy of Non-Invasive Scores Predicting Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Feng Xia

    Full Text Available Presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD can predict risks for diabetes, cardiovascular disease and advanced liver disease in the general population. We aimed to establish a non-invasive score for prediction of NAFLD in Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in the world, and detect whether ethnicity influences the accuracy of such a score.Liver fat content (LFAT was measured by quantitative ultrasound in 3548 subjects in the Shanghai Changfeng Community and a Chinese score was created using multivariate logistic regression analyses. This new score was internally validated in Chinese and externally in Finns. Its diagnostic performance was compared to the NAFLD liver fat score, fatty liver index (FLI and hepatic steatosis index (HSI developed in Finns, Italians and Koreans. We also analyzed how obesity related to LFAT measured by 1H-MRS in 79 Finns and 118 Chinese with type 2 diabetes (T2D.The metabolic syndrome and T2D, fasting serum insulin, body mass index (BMI and AST/ALT ratio were independent predictors of NAFLD in Chinese. The AUROC in the Chinese validation cohort was 0.76 (0.73-0.78 and in Finns 0.73 (0.68-0.78 (p<0.0001. 43%, 27%, 32% and 42% of Chinese had NAFLD when determined by the Chinese score, NAFLD liver fat score (p<0.001 vs. Chinese score, FLI (p<0.001 and HSI (NS. For any given BMI and waist circumference, the Chinese had a markedly higher LFAT than the Finns.The predictors of NAFLD in Han Chinese are as in Europids but the Chinese have more LFAT for any given degree of obesity than Europids. Ethnicity needs to be considered when NAFLD is predicted using risk scores.

  3. Predicting alcohol consumption during the month before and after beginning college

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stout Robert L

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We sought to determine predictors of drinking the month before and after beginning college, as well as changes in drinking between these two periods among adjudicated students. We conducted these analyses to inform individual and university-wide approaches to addressing underage drinking, particularly among the heaviest drinkers. Methods The sample consisted of 143 students entering college, adjudicated during their first semester, and interviewed during the same semester. The sample consisted of 43% women. Drinking data were collected through the Time-Line Follow-Back interview. Results The average number of drinking days (DD during the first month of college was 7.0 (SD = 4.7, the average number of drinks per drinking day (DDD was 7.4 (SD = 3.4, and the average volume of standard drink units consumed during this month was 56.3 (SD = 51.2. Students had volunteered for a two-year college facilitation study, and had been invited to participate after receiving a citation for violating university alcohol policies. Analyses consisted of nine backward elimination regression analyses with nine variables entered as predictors (one was a control variable. Age of first intoxication was related to every dependent measure. Men had a higher August DDD, September DDD, and September volume than women. Roommate drinking level was associated with September DDD and September volume. Out-of-state students had a lower August volume than in-state students. High school rank was inversely related to September drinking days. SAT score, declared major status, and fraternity/sorority status were not related to drinking according to these multivariate analyses. Conclusions Results suggest that approaches to underage drinking for adjudicated students may need to be tailored according to age of first intoxication. Results also suggest the drinking level of the heaviest drinking roommate may moderate individual level interventions. Further, interventions

  4. Fatty liver index vs waist circumference for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motamed, Nima; Sohrabi, Masoudreza; Ajdarkosh, Hossein; Hemmasi, Gholamreza; Maadi, Mansooreh; Sayeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Pirzad, Reza; Abedi, Khadijeh; Aghapour, Sivil; Fallahnezhad, Mojtaba; Zamani, Farhad

    2016-03-14

    To determine the discriminatory performance of fatty liver index (FLI) for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The data of 5052 subjects aged over 18 years were analyzed. FLI was calculated from body mass index, waist circumference (WC), triglyceride, and gamma glutamyl transferase data. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between FLI and NAFLD. The discriminatory performance of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curves (AUCs) and related confidence intervals were estimated. Optimal cutoff points of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD were determined based on the maximum values of Youden's index. The mean age of men and women in the study population were 44.8 ± 16.8 and 43.78 ± 15.43, respectively (P = 0.0216). The prevalence of NAFLD was 40.1% in men and 44.2% in women (P < 0.0017). FLI was strongly associated with NAFLD, so that even a one unit increase in FLI increased the chance of developing NAFLD by 5.8% (OR = 1.058, 95%CI: 1.054-1.063, P < 0.0001). Although FLI showed good performance in the diagnosis of NAFLD (AUC = 0.8656 (95%CI: 0.8548-0.8764), there was no significant difference with regards to WC (AUC = 0.8533, 95%CI: 0.8419-0.8646). The performance of FLI was not significantly different between men (AUC = 0.8648, 95%CI: 0.8505-0.8791) and women (AUC = 0.8682, 95%CI: 0.8513-0.8851). The highest performance with regards to age was related to the 18-39 age group (AUC = 0.8930, 95%CI: 0.8766-0.9093). The optimal cutoff points of FLI were 46.9 in men (sensitivity = 0.8242, specificity = 0.7687, Youden's index = 0.5929) and 53.8 in women (sensitivity = 0.8233, specificity = 0.7655, Youden's index = 0.5888). Although FLI had acceptable discriminatory power in the diagnosis of NAFLD, WC was a simpler and more accessible index with a similar performance.

  5. Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

  6. Predicting the place of out-of-hours care--a market simulation based on discrete choice analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philips, Hilde; Mahr, Dominik; Remmen, Roy; Weverbergh, Marcel; De Graeve, Diana; Van Royen, Paul

    2012-08-01

    Increasing cost pressure and changing patients' needs in the healthcare sector have led to new delivery models for primary care. Researchers and practitioners need to establish innovative methods to obtain insights into patients' preferences and effectiveness of healthcare services. This study reveals the crucial decision criteria of patients in choosing out-of-hours services and provides a projection of a future market share of the newly established central out-of-hours service, called General Practitioner Cooperative. A computer-aided discrete choice experiment. Respondents were 350 patients in a European city who decided for a service when confronted with a medical emergency in an out-of-hours case; two scenarios called 'adult' and 'child', describing the persons requiring medical assistance, were used to increase generalizability. The two most important attributes were 'explanation by the doctor' and 'waiting time' while the others - 'availability of technical equipment', 'ease of access', 'type of consultation' and 'payment method' - were of less importance. The market share projections predict that the new General Practitioner Cooperative will capture about one third of the market ('adult': 39.1%, 'child': 31.3%), ahead of the emergency department, the second most preferred service ('adult': 32.7%, 'child': 30.7%). This study quantifies the adoption of a new medical service. As a result, it extends current research approaches on eliciting and matching patient's needs and assists policy makers in establishing adequate service capacities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xisca Sureda

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time.

  8. Perceived Behavioral Alcohol Norms Predict Drinking for College Students While Studying Abroad*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Eric R.; LaBrie, Joseph W.; Hummer, Justin F.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: College students who study abroad may represent a subgroup at risk for increased drinking while living in foreign countries. The present study explores this idea as well as the extent to which students' pre-abroad perceptions of study-abroad student drinking are related to actual drinking while abroad. Method: Ninety-one students planning to study abroad completed an online survey of demographics, pre-abroad drinking behavior, perceptions of study-abroad student drinking behavior while abroad, and intentions to drink while abroad. Halfway into their study-abroad experience, participants completed a follow-up survey assessing drinking while abroad. Results: Pre-abroad intentions of drinking and pre-abroad perceptions of study-abroad drinking were associated with actual drinking while abroad. However, perceptions predicted actual drinking while abroad over and above intended drinking. In addition, although participants overall did not significantly increase their drinking while studying abroad, participants with higher pre-abroad perceived norms significantly increased their own drinking behavior while abroad. Conclusions: As in other samples of college students, perceived norms appear to be an important correlate of study-abroad student drinking behavior. Findings suggest that perceptions of study-abroad student-specific drinking predicted not only actual drinking while abroad but also increases in drinking from pre-abroad levels. Findings provide preliminary support for the idea that presenting prospective study-abroad students with accurate norms of study-abroad student-drinking behavior may help prevent increased or heavy drinking during this period. PMID:19895769

  9. Market Integration Predicts Human Gut Microbiome Attributes across a Gradient of Economic Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagaman, Keaton; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Liebert, Melissa A; Gildner, Theresa E; Urlacher, Samuel S; Madimenos, Felicia C; Guillemin, Karen; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S; Bohannan, Brendan J M

    2018-01-01

    Economic development is marked by dramatic increases in the incidence of microbiome-associated diseases, such as autoimmune diseases and metabolic syndromes, but the lifestyle changes that drive alterations in the human microbiome are not known. We measured market integration as a proxy for economically related lifestyle attributes, such as ownership of specific market goods that index degree of market integration and components of traditional and nontraditional (more modern) house structure and infrastructure, and profiled the fecal microbiomes of 213 participants from a contiguous, indigenous Ecuadorian population. Despite relatively modest differences in lifestyle across the population, greater economic development correlated with significantly lower within-host diversity, higher between-host dissimilarity, and a decrease in the relative abundance of the bacterium Prevotella . These microbiome shifts were most strongly associated with more modern housing, followed by reduced ownership of traditional subsistence lifestyle-associated items. IMPORTANCE Previous research has reported differences in the gut microbiome between populations residing in wealthy versus poorer countries, leading to the assertion that lifestyle changes associated with economic development promote changes in the gut microbiome that promote the proliferation of microbiome-associated diseases. However, a direct relationship between economic development and the gut microbiome has not previously been shown. We surveyed the gut microbiomes of a single indigenous population undergoing economic development and found significant associations between features of the gut microbiome and lifestyle changes associated with economic development. These findings suggest that even the earliest stages of economic development can drive changes in the gut microbiome, which may provide a warning sign for the development of microbiome-associated diseases.

  10. Tackling alcohol misuse: purchasing patterns affected by minimum pricing for alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludbrook, Anne; Petrie, Dennis; McKenzie, Lynda; Farrar, Shelley

    2012-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is associated with a range of health and social harms that increase with the level of consumption. Policy makers are interested in effective and cost-effective interventions to reduce alcohol consumption and associated harms. Economic theory and research evidence demonstrate that increasing price is effective at the population level. Price interventions that target heavier consumers of alcohol may be more effective at reducing alcohol-related harms with less impact on moderate consumers. Minimum pricing per unit of alcohol has been proposed on this basis but concerns have been expressed that 'moderate drinkers of modest means' will be unfairly penalized. If those on low incomes are disproportionately affected by a policy that removes very cheap alcohol from the market, the policy could be regressive. The effect on households' budgets will depend on who currently purchases cheaper products and the extent to which the resulting changes in prices will impact on their demand for alcohol. This paper focuses on the first of these points. This paper aims to identify patterns of purchasing of cheap off-trade alcohol products, focusing on income and the level of all alcohol purchased. Three years (2006-08) of UK household survey data were used. The Expenditure and Food Survey provides comprehensive 2-week data on household expenditure. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between the purchase of cheap off-trade alcohol, household income levels and whether the household level of alcohol purchasing is categorized as moderate, hazardous or harmful, while controlling for other household and non-household characteristics. Predicted probabilities and quantities for cheap alcohol purchasing patterns were generated for all households. The descriptive statistics and regression analyses indicate that low-income households are not the predominant purchasers of any alcohol or even of cheap alcohol. Of those who do purchase off-trade alcohol

  11. Implicit alcohol attitudes predict drinking behaviour over and above intentions and willingness in young adults but willingness is more important in adolescents: Implications for the Prototype Willingness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Emma L; Paltoglou, Aspasia E; Foxcroft, David R

    2017-05-01

    Dual process models, such as the Prototype Willingness Model (PWM), propose to account for both intentional and reactive drinking behaviour. Current methods of measuring constructs in the PWM rely on self-report, thus require a level of conscious deliberation. Implicit measures of attitudes may overcome this limitation and contribute to our understanding of how prototypes and willingness influence alcohol consumption in young people. This study aimed to explore whether implicit alcohol attitudes were related to PWM constructs and whether they would add to the prediction of risky drinking. The study involved a cross-sectional design. The sample included 501 participants from the United Kingdom (M age 18.92; range 11-51; 63% female); 230 school pupils and 271 university students. Participants completed explicit measures of alcohol prototype perceptions, willingness, drunkenness, harms, and intentions. They also completed an implicit measure of alcohol attitudes, using the Implicit Association Test. Implicit alcohol attitudes were only weakly related to the explicit measures. When looking at the whole sample, implicit alcohol attitudes did not add to the prediction of willingness over and above prototype perceptions. However, for university students implicit attitudes added to the prediction of behaviour, over and above intentions and willingness. For school pupils, willingness was a stronger predictor of behaviour than intentions or implicit attitudes. Adding implicit measures to the PWM may contribute to our understanding of the development of alcohol behaviours in young people. Further research could explore how implicit attitudes develop alongside the shift from reactive to planned behaviour. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Young people's drinking tends to occur in social situations and is driven in part by social reactions within these contexts. The Prototype Willingness Model (PWM) attempts to explain such reactive behaviour as

  12. Quantifying reflexivity in financial markets: Toward a prediction of flash crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier

    2012-05-01

    We introduce a measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes is due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, which combines in a natural and parsimonious way exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, to the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1998 to 2010. We find that the level of endogeneity has increased significantly from 1998 to 2010, with only 70% in 1998 to less than 30% since 2007 of the price changes resulting from some revealed exogenous information. Analogous to nuclear plant safety measures concerned with avoiding “criticality,” our measure provides a direct quantification of the distance of the financial market from a critical state defined precisely as the limit of diverging trading activity in the absence of any external driving.

  13. Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

    2017-05-01

    The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

  14. Serum immunoglobulin levels predict fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPherson, Stuart; Henderson, Elsbeth; Burt, Alastair D; Day, Christopher P; Anstee, Quentin M

    2014-05-01

    A third of the population are estimated to have NAFLD of varying severity. Serum immunoglobulins are frequently elevated in patients with chronic liver disease, but little is known about serum immunoglobulin levels in patients with NAFLD. Aim of this study was to evaluate serum immunoglobulin levels (IgA, IgG, and IgM) in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and determine if immunoglobulin levels are associated with clinical or histological features. Patients seen in a tertiary fatty liver clinic between 1999 and 2009 were included. Liver biopsies were assessed using the Kleiner score. Immunoglobulin levels and other blood tests were taken at time of biopsy. 285 patients (110 simple steatosis and 175 NASH) had serum immunoglobulins measured within 6months of liver biopsy. 130 (46%) patients had elevated (>1× upper limit of normal) serum IgA levels, 28 (10%) patients had elevated IgG and 22 (8%) raised IgM. Serum IgA levels were elevated more frequently in patients with NASH compared with subjects with simple steatosis (55% vs. 31%, p<0.001). Overall, 55 (19%) patients had advanced liver fibrosis (Kleiner stage 3-4). There was a significant positive association between serum IgA levels and the stage of fibrosis (p<0.001). Serum IgA, age, platelets, AST/ALT ratio and BMI were all independently with advanced fibrosis following multivariate analysis. A model constructed from these independent predictors accurately predicted advanced fibrosis (AUROC 0.87). The serum IgA level was frequently elevated in patients with NAFLD and was an independent predictor of advanced fibrosis. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Comparison of ridge regression, partial least-squares, pairwise correlation, forward- and best subset selection methods for prediction of retention indices for aliphatic alcohols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, Orsolya; Héberger, Károly

    2005-01-01

    A quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) study based on multiple linear regression (MLR) was performed for the description and prediction of Kováts retention indices (RI) of alcohol compounds. Alcohols were of saturated, linear or branched types and contained a hydroxyl group on the primary, secondary or tertiary carbon atoms. Constitutive and weighted holistic invariant molecular (WHIM) descriptors were used to represent the structure of alcohols in the MLR models. Before the model building, five variable selection methods were applied to select the most relevant variables from a large set of descriptors, respectively. The selected molecular properties were included into the MLR models. The efficiency of the variable selection methods was also compared. The selection methods were as follows: ridge regression (RR), partial least-squares method (PLS), pair-correlation method (PCM), forward selection (FS) and best subset selection (BSS). The stability and the validity of the MLR models were tested by a cross-validation technique using a leave-n-out technique. Neither RR nor PLS selected variables were able to describe the Kováts retention index properly, and PCM gave reliable results in the description but not for prediction. We built models with good predicting ability using FS and BSS as a selection method. The most relevant variables in the description and prediction of RIs were the mean electrotopological state index, the molecular mass, and WHIM indices characterizing size and shape.

  16. Global alcohol policy and the alcohol industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Peter

    2009-05-01

    The WHO is preparing its global strategy on alcohol, and, in so doing, has been asked to consult with the alcohol industry on ways it could contribute in reducing the harm done by alcohol. This review asks which is more effective in reducing harm: the regulatory approaches that the industry does not favour; or the educational approaches that it does favour. The current literature overwhelmingly finds that regulatory approaches (including those that manage the price, availability, and marketing of alcohol) reduce the risk of and the experience of alcohol-related harm, whereas educational approaches (including school-based education and public education campaigns) do not, with industry-funded education actually increasing the risk of harm. The alcohol industry should not be involved in making alcohol policy. Its involvement in implementing policy should be restricted to its role as a producer, distributor, and marketer of alcohol. In particular, the alcohol industry should not be involved in educational programmes, as such involvement could actually lead to an increase in harm.

  17. Prediction of stock markets by the evolutionary mix-game model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fang; Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Gao, Jieping

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents the efforts of using the evolutionary mix-game model, which is a modified form of the agent-based mix-game model, to predict financial time series. Here, we have carried out three methods to improve the original mix-game model by adding the abilities of strategy evolution to agents, and then applying the new model referred to as the evolutionary mix-game model to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The results show that these modifications can improve the accuracy of prediction greatly when proper parameters are chosen.

  18. PER1 rs3027172 Genotype Interacts with Early Life Stress to Predict Problematic Alcohol Use, but Not Reward-Related Ventral Striatum Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranger, David A. A.; Ifrah, Chloé; Prather, Aric A.; Carey, Caitlin E.; Corral-Frías, Nadia S.; Drabant Conley, Emily; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Bogdan, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS) (n = 665), we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) as well as ventral striatum (VS) reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired). Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene × covariate and environment × covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p < 0.05, corrected) while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, ELS, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene × environment interactions. PMID:27065929

  19. Exponential smoothing approaches for prediction in real-time electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2014-01-01

    The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant) expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous...... to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varying loss functions. With that objective in mind, forecasting approaches relying on simple models that accommodate the seasonal and dynamic nature of real-time prices are derived and analyzed. These are all based...... on the well-known Holt–Winters model with a daily seasonal cycle, either in its conventional form or conditioned upon exogenous variables, such as: (i) day-ahead price; (ii) system load; and (iii) wind power penetration. The superiority of the proposed approach over a number of common benchmarks...

  20. Predicting Institutional Choice: Patterns of Enrollment in the Higher Education Student Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Carol A.; Prather, James E.

    Factors affecting college choice of beginning college freshmen were studied. The influence of academic background and performance of students residing in a metropolitan area was assessed from 1983 to 1986 with 33 institutions of a statewide university system. Using multivariate discriminant analysis, institutions attended were predicted using the…

  1. Self-Efficacy for Refusal Mediated by Outcome Expectancies in the Prediction of Alcohol-Dependence amongst Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Robert J.; Connor, Jason P.; Ricciardelli, Lina A.

    1998-01-01

    Examines the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy in the production of alcohol dependence and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. Results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking-related…

  2. Predicting Vocational Rehabilitation Outcomes for People with Alcohol Abuse/Dependence: An Application of Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brickham, Dana M.

    2012-01-01

    People with alcohol abuse/dependence disabilities are often faced with a complex recovery process due to the exacerbating and chronic aspects of their condition. Vocational rehabilitation for people with alcohol abuse/dependence can help individuals access and maintain employment, and through employment can enhance physical and psychological…

  3. Prior Delinquency and Depression Differentially Predict Conditional Associations between Discrete Patterns of Adolescent Religiosity and Adult Alcohol Use Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meredith A Hoyland

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Prior research has demonstrated that adolescent delinquency and depression are prospectively related to adult alcohol use and that adolescent religiosity may influence these relationships. However, such associations have not been investigated using person-centered approaches that provide nuanced explorations of these constructs. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we examined whether adolescent delinquency and depression differentiated typologies of adult alcohol users and whether these relationships varied across religiosity profiles. Three typologies of self-identified Christian adolescents and 4 types of adult alcohol users were identified via latent profile analysis. Delinquency and depression were related to increased likelihood of membership in heavy drinking or problematic alcohol use profiles, but this relationship was most evident among those likely to be involved in religious practices. These results demonstrate the importance of person-centered approaches in characterizing the influences of internalizing and externalizing behaviors on subsequent patterns of alcohol use.

  4. Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Tyng; Cooper, Hannah L F; Windle, Michael; Haardörfer, Regine; Crawford, Natalie D; Chen, Wei J; Chen, Chuan-Yu

    2016-12-01

    Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old) and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old) from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source) compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT) and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the relationship between district-level violent

  5. Rationalization of the pKa values of alcohols and thiols using atomic charge descriptors and its application to the prediction of amino acid pKa's.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugur, Ilke; Marion, Antoine; Parant, Stéphane; Jensen, Jan H; Monard, Gerald

    2014-08-25

    In a first step toward the development of an efficient and accurate protocol to estimate amino acids' pKa's in proteins, we present in this work how to reproduce the pKa's of alcohol and thiol based residues (namely tyrosine, serine, and cysteine) in aqueous solution from the knowledge of the experimental pKa's of phenols, alcohols, and thiols. Our protocol is based on the linear relationship between computed atomic charges of the anionic form of the molecules (being either phenolates, alkoxides, or thiolates) and their respective experimental pKa values. It is tested with different environment approaches (gas phase or continuum solvent-based approaches), with five distinct atomic charge models (Mulliken, Löwdin, NPA, Merz-Kollman, and CHelpG), and with nine different DFT functionals combined with 16 different basis sets. Moreover, the capability of semiempirical methods (AM1, RM1, PM3, and PM6) to also predict pKa's of thiols, phenols, and alcohols is analyzed. From our benchmarks, the best combination to reproduce experimental pKa's is to compute NPA atomic charge using the CPCM model at the B3LYP/3-21G and M062X/6-311G levels for alcohols (R(2) = 0.995) and thiols (R(2) = 0.986), respectively. The applicability of the suggested protocol is tested with tyrosine and cysteine amino acids, and precise pKa predictions are obtained. The stability of the amino acid pKa's with respect to geometrical changes is also tested by MM-MD and DFT-MD calculations. Considering its strong accuracy and its high computational efficiency, these pKa prediction calculations using atomic charges indicate a promising method for predicting amino acids' pKa in a protein environment.

  6. Exponential Smoothing Approaches for Prediction in Real-Time Electricity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tryggvi Jónsson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varying loss functions. With that objective in mind, forecasting approaches relying on simple models that accommodate the seasonal and dynamic nature of real-time prices are derived and analyzed. These are all based on the well-known Holt–Winters model with a daily seasonal cycle, either in its conventional form or conditioned upon exogenous variables, such as: (i day-ahead price; (ii system load; and (iii wind power penetration. The superiority of the proposed approach over a number of common benchmarks is subsequently demonstrated through an empirical investigation for the Nord Pool, mimicking practical forecasting for a three-year period over 2008–2011.

  7. New microRNA Biomarkers for Drug-Induced Steatosis and Their Potential to Predict the Contribution of Drugs to Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Riera, Mireia; Conde, Isabel; Tolosa, Laia; Zaragoza, Ángela; Castell, José V; Gómez-Lechón, María J; Jover, Ramiro

    2017-01-01

    Background and Aims: Drug-induced steatosis is a major reason for drug failure in clinical trials and post-marketing withdrawal; and therefore, predictive biomarkers are essential. These could be particularly relevant in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), where most patients show features of the metabolic syndrome and are prescribed with combined chronic therapies, which can contribute to fatty liver. However, specific biomarkers to assess the contribution of drugs to NAFLD are lacking. We aimed to find microRNAs (miRNAs) responsive to steatotic drugs and to investigate if they could become circulating biomarkers for drug-induced steatosis. Methods: Human HepG2 cells were treated with drugs and changes in miRNA levels were measured by microarray and qRT-PCR. Drug-induced fat accumulation in HepG2 was analyzed by high-content screening and enzymatic methods. miRNA biomarkers were also analyzed in the sera of 44 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients and in 10 controls. Results: We found a set of 10 miRNAs [miR-22-5p, -3929, -24-2-5p, -663a, -29a-3p, -21 (5p and 3p), -27a-5p, -1260 and -202-3p] that were induced in human HepG2 cells and secreted to the culture medium upon incubation with model steatotic drugs (valproate, doxycycline, cyclosporin A and tamoxifen). Moreover, cell exposure to 17 common drugs for NAFLD patients showed that some of them (e.g., irbesartan, fenofibrate, and omeprazole) also induced these miRNAs and increased intracellular triglycerides, particularly in combinations. Finally, we found that most of these miRNAs (60%) were detected in human serum, and that NAFLD patients under fibrates showed both induction of these miRNAs and a more severe steatosis grade. Conclusion: Steatotic drugs induce a common set of hepatic miRNAs that could be used in drug screening during preclinical development. Moreover, most of these miRNAs are serum circulating biomarkers that could become useful in the diagnosis of iatrogenic steatosis.

  8. Market Power in Laboratory Emission Permit Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godby, R.

    2002-01-01

    Many proposals suggesting the use of markets to control pollution assume markets will be competitive. When markets do not exhibit competitive characteristics, however, should they still be expected to result in efficiency improvement relative to traditional approaches? This paper employs experimental economic methods to examine the effect of market structure on the use of marketable emissions permits. Results indicate that in a market with one dominant firm and a number of fringe firms, strategic manipulation occurs repeatedly in the laboratory as predicted by market power models, undermining the allocative and dynamic efficiency benefits such markets offer. When firms compete in a downstream product market dominated by the same single firm, market efficiency can actually be reduced with the implementation of permit markets. Final market efficiencies reflect initial endowments and are influenced by competitive conditions elsewhere in the economy, indicating that policy-makers should carefully consider whether markets are appropriate in such circumstances

  9. Contribution of frontal cerebral blood flow measured by (99m)Tc-Bicisate spect and executive function deficits to predicting treatment outcome in alcohol-dependent patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noël, Xavier; Sferrazza, Rita; Van Der Linden, Martial; Paternot, Jacques; Verhas, Michel; Hanak, Catherine; Pelc, Isidore; Verbanck, Paul

    2002-01-01

    To determine whether inhibition and working memory deficits, and reduced regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) (previously shown to be related), measured at the end of a detoxification programme, predict alcoholic relapse 2 months later. Twenty uncomplicated alcoholic inpatients were investigated at the end of detoxification, at least 7 days since the last dose of diazepam, and a mean of 18.8 days since the last drink. Their performance was assessed on the inhibition (Hayling) test, working memory (Alpha-span task), episodic memory (California Verbal Learning Test) and abstract reasoning (Progressive Matrices). Frontal CBF was assessed at the same time with a semiquantitative (99m)Tc-Bicisate SPECT procedure. Patients were contacted 2 months later. Patients who abstained (n = 9) did not differ from those who relapsed (n = 11) on age, gender, smoking, duration of alcohol misuse, number of previous detoxifications, amount of ethanol consumed the month prior to admission to the detoxification programme, state anxiety, trait anxiety, or depression. Relapsed subjects had shown a lower uptake of (99m)Tc-Bicisate in the bilateral medial frontal gyrus (n = 9; mean ratio +/- SD = 0.69 +/- 0.006) than abstainers (n = 11; 0.85 +/- 0.19), and poorer performance on the Alpha-span task and the Hayling test. The other tests were not different. Inhibition and working memory deficits, associated with low levels of CBF in the medial frontal gyrus, are related to the difficulty of maintaining short-term abstinence from alcohol.

  10. Thermodynamic models to predict gas-liquid solubilities in the methanol synthesis, the methanol-higher alcohol synthesis, and the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis via gas-slurry processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breman, B.B; Beenackers, A.A C M

    1996-01-01

    Various thermodynamic models were tested concerning their applicability to predict gas-liquid solubilities, relevant for synthesis gas conversion to methanol, higher alcohols, and hydrocarbons via gas-slurry processes. Without any parameter optimization the group contribution equation of state

  11. Usefulness of indirect alcohol biomarkers for predicting recidivism of drunk-driving among previously convicted drunk-driving offenders: results from the recidivism of alcohol-impaired driving (ROAD) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maenhout, Thomas M; Poll, Anneleen; Vermassen, Tijl; De Buyzere, Marc L; Delanghe, Joris R

    2014-01-01

    In several European countries, drivers under the influence (DUI), suspected of chronic alcohol abuse are referred for medical and psychological examination. This study (the ROAD study, or Recidivism Of Alcohol-impaired Driving) investigated the usefulness of indirect alcohol biomarkers for predicting drunk-driving recidivism in previously convicted drunk-driving offenders. The ROAD study is a prospective study (2009-13) that was performed on 517 randomly selected drivers in Belgium. They were convicted for drunk-driving for which their licence was confiscated. The initial post-arrest blood samples were collected and analysed for percentage carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (%CDT), transaminsase activities [alanine amino transferase (ALT), aspartate amino transferase (AST)], gamma-glutamyltransferase (γGT) and red cell mean corpuscular volume (MCV). The observation time for each driver was 3 years and dynamic. A logistic regression analysis revealed that ln(%CDT) (P drunk-driving. The ROAD index (which includes ln(%CDT), ln(γGT), -ln(ALT) and the sex of the driver) was calculated and had a significantly higher area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.71) than the individual biomarkers for drunk-driving recidivism. Drivers with a high risk of recidivating (ROAD index ≥ 25%; third tertile) could be distinguished from drivers with an intermediate risk (16% ≤ ROAD index drunk-driving. The association with gamma-glutamyltransferase, alanine amino transferase and the sex of the driver could have additional value for identifying drunk-drivers at intermediate risk of recidivism. Non-specific indirect alcohol markers, such as alanine amino transferase, gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate amino transferase and red cell mean corpuscular volume have minimal added value to % carbohydrate-deficient transferrin for distinguishing drunk drivers with a low or high risk of recidivism. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. Are Remotely Sensed Trends in the Built Environment and Urban Vegetation Predictive of Changes in Metropolitan Housing Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endsley, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    In the midst of a global urbanization trend, residential neighborhoods are undergoing a variety of changes, including neighborhood turnover, the re-location of employment centers, and, recently, the increasing social and economic isolation of the suburbs. In the U.S., where residential lawns account for more area than any other irrigated crop (Polsky et al. 2014, in PNAS), coeval changes in residential populations, the built environment, and vegetation have serious implications for urban sustainability. To date, detailed studies of dynamic neighborhood changes have been hampered by the lack of fine time-series data on neighborhood composition. Most notably, the U.S. Census is conducted only once every decade leading to the likely inaccurate assumption of linear change between Census years. To the extent that human activities alter the built environment and urban ecology, can remotely sensed biophysical changes serve as a good proxy for neighborhood socio-economic changes? In this study, I apply time series data on spectral reflectance, spectral indices, and land-cover abundances from 15-to-25 years of Landsat data to fine-scale data on residential property transactions in two metropolitan areas with different regional economic and environmental contexts: Detroit and Los Angeles. The real estate record provides parcel-level, monthly data on sale prices and tax foreclosures; taken together, these provide a good description of the housing market and an acceptable proxy for neighborhood stability. By comparing lagged features from the remote sensing (RS) archive at different time scales in a non-parametric statistical learning algorithm, I identify which RS features best predict changes in the housing market and compare these associations between the two metropolitan areas and across multiple spatial and temporal scales along an urban to peri-urban gradient.

  13. Verification of the Addiction Severity Index Japanese Version (ASI-J as a Treatment-Customization, Prediction, and Comparison Tool for Alcohol-Dependent Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susumu Higuchi

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To demonstrate the usefulness of the Addiction Severity Index Japanese Version (ASI-J in Japanese alcohol-dependent individuals. The ASI is a frequently used clinical and research instrument that measures severities in seven functional domains in people with substance abuse disorders. Methods: A total of 370 male inpatients with a history of alcohol dependence participated in the study. Forty-nine participants were excluded in the final analysis due to lack of reliability (i.e., patient misrepresentation or inability to understand. We used the ASI-J and a series of indexes that determined patient states during and post-treatment. Results: The correlations between ASI Composite Scores (CSs, which were calculated through a weighted formula and indicated the severity of each problem area, were significant but low in eight relations and not significant in 13 relations, indicating substantial independence of the problem areas. Significant differences were found in Family/Social CSs between abstinent and relapsed alcohol-dependent individuals. The questions of undesirable attitude were significantly related to the CSs of Employment, Drug use, Family/Social, and Psychiatric sections. Significant differences were observed in patient demographics, CS, and ASI Severity Rating (SR and interviewer’s subjective scoring between alcohol-dependent individuals and drug abusers. CSs in Japanese alcohol-dependent individuals were generally similar to corresponding CSs in individuals from other countries, with the exception of The Netherlands. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the ASI-J is useful for understanding individual profiles of problems for each patient and planning customized treatment. The ASI-J served as a predictive tool for relapse and compliance to treatment afterward and was shown to be useful as a comparison tool in clarifying similarities and differences between substance abuser groups.

  14. Predictive and External Validity of a Pre-Market Study to Determine the Most Effective Pictorial Health Warning Label Content for Cigarette Packages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Li-Ling; Thrasher, James F; Reid, Jessica L; Hammond, David

    2016-05-01

    Studies examining cigarette package pictorial health warning label (HWL) content have primarily used designs that do not allow determination of effectiveness after repeated, naturalistic exposure. This research aimed to determine the predictive and external validity of a pre-market evaluation study of pictorial HWLs. Data were analyzed from: (1) a pre-market convenience sample of 544 adult smokers who participated in field experiments in Mexico City before pictorial HWL implementation (September 2010); and (2) a post-market population-based representative sample of 1765 adult smokers in the Mexican administration of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey after pictorial HWL implementation. Participants in both samples rated six HWLs that appeared on cigarette packs, and also ranked HWLs with four different themes. Mixed effects models were estimated for each sample to assess ratings of relative effectiveness for the six HWLs, and to assess which HWL themes were ranked as the most effective. Pre- and post-market data showed similar relative ratings across the six HWLs, with the least and most effective HWLs consistently differentiated from other HWLs. Models predicting rankings of HWL themes in post-market sample indicated: (1) pictorial HWLs were ranked as more effective than text-only HWLs; (2) HWLs with both graphic and "lived experience" content outperformed symbolic content; and, (3) testimonial content significantly outperformed didactic content. Pre-market data showed a similar pattern of results, but with fewer statistically significant findings. The study suggests well-designed pre-market studies can have predictive and external validity, helping regulators select HWL content. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Building a Better Applicant Pool--A Case Study of the Use of Predictive Modeling and Market Segmentation to Build and Enroll Better Pools of Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herridge, Bart; Heil, Robert

    2003-01-01

    Predictive modeling has been a popular topic in higher education for the last few years. This case study shows an example of an effective use of modeling combined with market segmentation to strategically divide large, unmanageable prospect and inquiry pools and convert them into applicants, and eventually, enrolled students. (Contains 6 tables.)

  16. Predicting methyl tert-butyl ether, tert-butyl formate, and tert-butyl alcohol levels in the environment using the fugacity approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Hans Peter H; Fenner, Kathrin; Schmidt, Torsten C

    2005-05-01

    Through its extensive use as a fuel oxygenate, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) is found nearly ubiquitouslythroughout the environment. To better understand the environmental fate of MTBE, fugacity models are commonly used. However, models developed by the scientific community and by governmental bodies differ in their predictions of relative MTBE concentrations for relevant environmental compartments and of seasonal concentration variations; further, to date they have not considered the formation of transformation products. In this study, the sensitivity of predicted environmental concentrations of MTBE and its two major degradation products, tert-butyl formate (TBF) and tert-butyl alcohol (TBA), to all types of model input parameters is analyzed in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This analysis allowed for an assessment of the most influential parameters for predicting soil, water, and air concentrations and thereby provided insight into why previous modeling studies on MTBE differed. Further, the information from the sensitivity analysis was used to parametrize a multispecies transformation model for predicting European concentration levels of MTBE and, for the first time, TBF and TBA. Water and air concentrations of MTBE predicted with the transformation model were in good agreement with measurements of environmental samples. No studies are available on environmental TBF and TBA levels to compare with model predictions; however, the modeling results indicate that, in the water phase, TBA concentrations may reach appreciable levels. One major uncertainty identified regarding the prediction of TBA levels was the fraction of TBA formed from atmospheric MTBE and TBF.

  17. Caffeinated alcohol use and expectancies for caffeine versus alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau-Barraco, Cathy; Linden, Ashley N

    2014-08-01

    Caffeinated alcoholic beverage (CAB) use is related to alcohol-related risk. Limited research has examined outcome expectancies and CAB consumption. This study tested the predictive utility of caffeine and alcohol expectancies in CAB use outcomes (i.e. quantity, frequency, and alcohol-related harms). Participants were 419 (302 women) alcohol and caffeine users from a mid-sized urban university. Data collection occurred between August 2010 and December 2011. Participants completed measures of caffeine and alcohol expectancies, alcohol problems, alcohol use, and CAB use. Caffeine and alcohol expectancies contributed uniquely to approximately 12% of the variability in quantity, 8% in frequency, and 16% in problems. When examined separately, alcohol expectancies explained approximately 10% to 11% of the variance, whereas caffeine expectancies accounted for 6% of the variance in CAB use quantity. For CAB use frequency, alcohol and caffeine expectancies accounted for about 8% and 4%, respectively. Alcohol expectancies accounted for 12% to 14% of variance, whereas caffeine expectancies accounted for 4% to 6% in alcohol-related harms. CONCLUSIONS/ IMPORTANCE: The present study sought to address a gap in the literature regarding the contributions of expectancies in the prediction of CAB use. Our findings provide support for the predictive utility of both caffeine and alcohol expectancies in accounting for individual variability in CAB use but alcohol expectancies may exert greater impact on use patterns. Inclusion of both types of expectancies in larger theoretical frameworks may be beneficial in gaining a more complete and deeper conceptualization of this risky behavior.

  18. Impact of Social Cognition on Alcohol Dependence Treatment Outcome: Poorer Facial Emotion Recognition Predicts Relapse/Dropout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, Claudia I; Derntl, Birgit; Osthaus, Friederike; Kemmler, Georg; Fleischhacker, W Wolfgang

    2017-12-01

    Despite growing evidence for neurobehavioral deficits in social cognition in alcohol use disorder (AUD), the clinical relevance remains unclear, and little is known about its impact on treatment outcome. This study prospectively investigated the impact of neurocognitive social abilities at treatment onset on treatment completion. Fifty-nine alcohol-dependent patients were assessed with measures of social cognition including 3 core components of empathy via paradigms measuring: (i) emotion recognition (the ability to recognize emotions via facial expression), (ii) emotional perspective taking, and (iii) affective responsiveness at the beginning of inpatient treatment for alcohol dependence. Subjective measures were also obtained, including estimates of task performance and a self-report measure of empathic abilities (Interpersonal Reactivity Index). According to treatment outcomes, patients were divided into a patient group with a regular treatment course (e.g., with planned discharge and without relapse during treatment) or an irregular treatment course (e.g., relapse and/or premature and unplanned termination of treatment, "dropout"). Compared with patients completing treatment in a regular fashion, patients with relapse and/or dropout of treatment had significantly poorer facial emotion recognition ability at treatment onset. Additional logistic regression analyses confirmed these results and identified poor emotion recognition performance as a significant predictor for relapse/dropout. Self-report (subjective) measures did not correspond with neurobehavioral social cognition measures, respectively objective task performance. Analyses of individual subtypes of facial emotions revealed poorer recognition particularly of disgust, anger, and no (neutral faces) emotion in patients with relapse/dropout. Social cognition in AUD is clinically relevant. Less successful treatment outcome was associated with poorer facial emotion recognition ability at the beginning of

  19. Media as a “Super Peer”: How Adolescents Interpret Media Messages Predicts their Perception of Alcohol and Tobacco Use Norms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmore, Kristen; Scull, Tracy M.; Kupersmidt, Janis B.

    2016-01-01

    Adolescents’ media environment offers information about who uses substances and what happens as a result—how youth interpret these messages likely determines their impact on normative beliefs about alcohol and tobacco use. The Message Interpretation Processing (MIP) theory predicts that substance use norms are influenced by cognitions associated with the interpretation of media messages. This cross-sectional study examined whether high school adolescents’ (n=817, 48% female, 64% white) media-related cognitions (i.e., similarity, realism, desirability, identification) were related to their perceptions of substance use norms. Results revealed that adolescents’ media-related cognitions explained a significant amount of variance in perceived social approval for and estimated prevalence of peer alcohol and tobacco use, above and beyond previous use and demographic covariates. Compared to prevalence norms, social approval norms were more closely related to adolescents’ media-related cognitions. Results suggest that critical thinking about media messages can inhibit normative perceptions that are likely to increase adolescents’ interest in alcohol and tobacco use. PMID:27837371

  20. Common ALDH2 genetic variants predict development of hypertension in the SAPPHIRe prospective cohort: Gene-environmental interaction with alcohol consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Yi-Cheng

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic variants near/within the ALDH2 gene encoding the mitochondrial aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 have been associated with blood pressure and hypertension in several case–control association studies in East Asian populations. Methods Three common tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNP in the ALDH2 gene were genotyped in 1,134 subjects of Chinese origin from the Stanford Asia-Pacific Program for Hypertension and Insulin Resistance (SAPPHIRe family cohort. We examined whether the ALDH2 SNP genotypes predicted the development of hypertension in the prospective SAPPHIRe cohort. Results Over an average follow-up period of 5.7 years, carriers homozygous for the rs2238152 T allele in the ALDH2 gene were more likely to progress to hypertension than were non-carriers (hazard ratio [HR], 2.88, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-7.84, P = 0.03, corresponding to a population attributable risk of ~7.1%. The risk associated with the rs2238152 T allele were strongest in heavy/moderate alcohol drinkers and was reduced in non-drinkers, indicating an interaction between ALDH2 genetic variants and alcohol intake on the risk of hypertension (P for interaction = 0.04. The risk allele was associated with significantly lower ALDH2 gene expression levels in human adipose tissue. Conclusion ALDH2 genetic variants were associated with progression to hypertension in a prospective Chinese cohort. The association was modified by alcohol consumption.

  1. Current market of industrial bio-products and biofuels, and predictable evolutions by 2015/2030. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    The main objectives of this study were to describe the current status of the energetic and industrial bio-product markets (biofuels, bio-lubricants, biomaterials, papers, cosmetics, and so on), to identify and analyze the evolution perspectives of these new markets on a long and medium term, to define scenarios of evolution for different sectors (agro-industry, energy, organic chemistry), to identify the most promising new markets, and to select the priority agro-industrial sectors

  2. Public awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer in England in 2015: a population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny Buykx

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public knowledge of the association between alcohol and cancer is reported to be low. We aimed to provide up-to-date evidence for England regarding awareness of the link between alcohol and different cancers and to determine whether awareness differs by demographic characteristics, alcohol use, and geographic region. Methods A representative sample of 2100 adults completed an online survey in July 2015. Respondents were asked to identify which health outcomes, including specific cancers, may be caused by alcohol consumption. Logistic regressions explored whether demographic, alcohol use, and geographic characteristics predicted correctly identifying alcohol-related cancer risk. Results Unprompted, 12.9% of respondents identified cancer as a potential health outcome of alcohol consumption. This rose to 47% when prompted (compared to 95% for liver disease and 73% for heart disease. Knowledge of the link between alcohol and specific cancers varied between 18% (breast and 80% (liver. Respondents identified the following cancers as alcohol-related where no such evidence exists: bladder (54%, brain (32%, ovarian (17%. Significant predictors of awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer were being female, more highly educated, and living in North-East England. Conclusion There is generally low awareness of the relationship between alcohol consumption and cancer, particularly breast cancer. Greater awareness of the relationship between alcohol and breast cancer in North-East England, where a mass media campaign highlighted this relationship, suggests that population awareness can be influenced by social marketing.

  3. Ebulliometric determination and prediction of (vapor + liquid) equilibria for binary and ternary mixtures containing alcohols (C{sub 1}-C{sub 4}) and dimethyl carbonate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuda, Hiroyuki, E-mail: matsuda@chem.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Fukano, Makoto; Kikkawa, Shinichiro [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Constantinescu, Dana [Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, Technische Chemie, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany); Kurihara, Kiyofumi; Tochigi, Katsumi; Ochi, Kenji [Department of Materials and Applied Chemistry, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Gmehling, Juergen [Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, Technische Chemie, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany)

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: > The VLE behavior of systems containing dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was investigated. > VLE data for ternary and binary mixtures containing alcohol and DMC were measured. > Several activity coefficient models were used for data reduction or prediction. > Valley line, i.e., distillation boundary, was observed for the ternary mixture. > Residue curves were calculated to investigate composition profile for distillation. - Abstract: (Vapor + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) data for a ternary mixture, namely {l_brace}methanol + propan-1-ol + dimethyl carbonate (DMC){r_brace}, and four binary mixtures, namely an {l_brace}alcohol (C{sub 3} or C{sub 4}) + DMC{r_brace}, containing the binary constituent mixtures of the ternary mixture, were measured at p = (40.00 to 93.32) kPa using a modified Swietoslawski-type ebulliometer. The experimental data for the binary systems were correlated using the Wilson model. The Wilson model was also applied to the ternary system to predict the VLE behavior using parameters from the binary mixtures. The modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model was also tested for the predictions of the VLE behavior of the binary and ternary mixtures. In addition, the experimental VLE data for the ternary and constituent binary mixtures were correlated using the extended Redlich-Kister (ERK) model, which can completely represent the azeotropic points. For the ternary system, a comparison of the experimental and the predicted or correlated boiling points obtained using the Wilson and ERK models showed that the ERK model is more accurate. The valley line, i.e., the curve which divides the patterns of vapor-liquid tie lines, was found in the (methanol + propan-1-ol + DMC) system. This valley line could be represented by the ERK model. Finally, the composition profile for simple distillation of this ternary mixture was obtained by analysis of the residue curves from the estimated Wilson parameters of the constituent binary mixtures.

  4. Ebulliometric determination and prediction of (vapor + liquid) equilibria for binary and ternary mixtures containing alcohols (C1-C4) and dimethyl carbonate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Fukano, Makoto; Kikkawa, Shinichiro; Constantinescu, Dana; Kurihara, Kiyofumi; Tochigi, Katsumi; Ochi, Kenji; Gmehling, Juergen

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: → The VLE behavior of systems containing dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was investigated. → VLE data for ternary and binary mixtures containing alcohol and DMC were measured. → Several activity coefficient models were used for data reduction or prediction. → Valley line, i.e., distillation boundary, was observed for the ternary mixture. → Residue curves were calculated to investigate composition profile for distillation. - Abstract: (Vapor + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) data for a ternary mixture, namely {methanol + propan-1-ol + dimethyl carbonate (DMC)}, and four binary mixtures, namely an {alcohol (C 3 or C 4 ) + DMC}, containing the binary constituent mixtures of the ternary mixture, were measured at p = (40.00 to 93.32) kPa using a modified Swietoslawski-type ebulliometer. The experimental data for the binary systems were correlated using the Wilson model. The Wilson model was also applied to the ternary system to predict the VLE behavior using parameters from the binary mixtures. The modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model was also tested for the predictions of the VLE behavior of the binary and ternary mixtures. In addition, the experimental VLE data for the ternary and constituent binary mixtures were correlated using the extended Redlich-Kister (ERK) model, which can completely represent the azeotropic points. For the ternary system, a comparison of the experimental and the predicted or correlated boiling points obtained using the Wilson and ERK models showed that the ERK model is more accurate. The valley line, i.e., the curve which divides the patterns of vapor-liquid tie lines, was found in the (methanol + propan-1-ol + DMC) system. This valley line could be represented by the ERK model. Finally, the composition profile for simple distillation of this ternary mixture was obtained by analysis of the residue curves from the estimated Wilson parameters of the constituent binary mixtures.

  5. Alcohol Alert: Genetics of Alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Reports » Alcohol Alert » Alcohol Alert Number 84 Alcohol Alert Number 84 Print Version The Genetics of ... immune defense system. Genes Encoding Enzymes Involved in Alcohol Breakdown Some of the first genes linked to ...

  6. Social-geographic approaches to application of economic-mathematical modeling in predicting the place of Ukrainian farming economies in food market commoditization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Rudenko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Social-geographic analysis of farmery with application of economic-mathematical modeling allowed for prediction of farming economies’ role in food market commoditization. The equation of potential demand was suggested. Actual consumption and its recommended rates with respect to meat and meat products, milk and milk products, eggs, fish and fish products, bread and cereal products, potatoes, vegetables, fruits and berries, etc, were compared. Cartographic model of Ukrainian domestic food market’s potential capacity (within good-money relations was developed. The low level of purchasing power, especially in rural population, makes a high percentage of foodstuffs be beyond the goods-money relations. In rural areas, they (inclusive of farmers produce and consume a significant portion of foodstuffs that escaped the goods-money relations, or such foodstuffs were given to them by the relatives. We regard that in the process of assessment of the capacity of domestic food market, this share of products should also be taken into account. The assessment also necessitates consideration of the number of urban and rural population in Ukrainian regions; manufacturing of certain types of agricultural production; needs in this or that type of product as prescribed by minimal and rational consumption rates. When predicting, with the use of economic-mathematical modeling, the places of farming economies in commoditization of food market, it is reasonable to apply the parameters of time series of the number of farming economies and the areas of lands used by them with consideration of the dynamics of population number and the level of its (population self-provision with agricultural production. Application of predictive linear models shows that the share of production manufactured by farming economies will be most essential before 2020 on the market of potatoes and vegetables (reaching 15 %. Despite the predicted double increase in animal production, its share

  7. A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......, the equity risk premium), and we compute the Hansen-Jagannathan bound to infer the properties of the underlying stochastic discount factor generating Danish asset returns....

  8. Stock-Market Crash Will Not Lead to Severe Reduction in Giving to Colleges, Harvard Economist Predicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Anne Lowrey

    1987-01-01

    Giving patterns in the six years following a stock market drop in 1960 showed that giving actually went up during those years. However, in the case of very wealthy donors, they reduced large gifts to colleges. ( MLW)

  9. Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sureda, Xisca; Carreño, Víctor; Espelt, Albert; Villalbí, Joan R; Pearce, Jamie; Franco, Manuel

    Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Phenotype, Body Composition, and Prediction Equations (Indian Fatty Liver Index) for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Non-Diabetic Asian Indians: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Surya Prakash; Misra, Anoop; Nigam, Priyanka; Guleria, Randeep; Pasha, M A Qadar

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we have attempted comparison of detailed body composition phenotype of Asian Indians with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) vs. those without, in a case controlled manner. We also aim to analyse prediction equations for NAFLD for non-diabetic Asian Indians, and compare performance of these with published prediction equations researched from other populations. In this case-control study, 162 cases and 173 age-and sex-matched controls were recruited. Clinical, anthropometric, metabolic, and body composition profiles, and liver ultrasound were done. Fasting insulin levels, value of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and serum high sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were evaluated. Multivariate logistic and linear regression analyses were used to arrive at prediction equations for fatty liver [Indian fatty liver index (IFLI)]. As compared to those without fatty liver, those with fatty liver exhibited the following; Excess dorsocervical fat ('Buffalo hump'), skin tags, xanthelasma, 'double chin', arcus; excess total, abdominal and subcutaneous adiposity, and high blood pressure, blood glucose, measures of insulin resistance (fasting insulin and HOMA-IR values), lipids and hs-CRP levels. Two prediction equations were developed; Clinical [Indian Fatty Liver Index-Clinical; IFLI-C]: 1(double chin) +15.5 (systolic blood pressure) +13.8 (buffalo hump); and IFLI-Clinical and Biochemical (CB): serum triglycerides+12 (insulin)+1(systolic blood pressure) +18 (buffalo hump). On ROC Curve analysis, IFLI performed better than all published prediction equations, except one. Non-diabetic Asian Indians with NAFLD researched by us were overweight/obese, had excess abdominal and subcutaneous fat, multiple other phenotypic markers, had higher insulin resistance, glycemia, dyslipidemia and subclinical inflammation than those without. Prediction score developed by us for NAFLD; IFLI-C and IFLI-CB, should be useful for clinicians

  11. Phenotype, Body Composition, and Prediction Equations (Indian Fatty Liver Index for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Non-Diabetic Asian Indians: A Case-Control Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surya Prakash Bhatt

    Full Text Available In this study, we have attempted comparison of detailed body composition phenotype of Asian Indians with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD vs. those without, in a case controlled manner. We also aim to analyse prediction equations for NAFLD for non-diabetic Asian Indians, and compare performance of these with published prediction equations researched from other populations.In this case-control study, 162 cases and 173 age-and sex-matched controls were recruited. Clinical, anthropometric, metabolic, and body composition profiles, and liver ultrasound were done. Fasting insulin levels, value of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, and serum high sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP levels were evaluated. Multivariate logistic and linear regression analyses were used to arrive at prediction equations for fatty liver [Indian fatty liver index (IFLI].As compared to those without fatty liver, those with fatty liver exhibited the following; Excess dorsocervical fat ('Buffalo hump', skin tags, xanthelasma, 'double chin', arcus; excess total, abdominal and subcutaneous adiposity, and high blood pressure, blood glucose, measures of insulin resistance (fasting insulin and HOMA-IR values, lipids and hs-CRP levels. Two prediction equations were developed; Clinical [Indian Fatty Liver Index-Clinical; IFLI-C]: 1(double chin +15.5 (systolic blood pressure +13.8 (buffalo hump; and IFLI-Clinical and Biochemical (CB: serum triglycerides+12 (insulin+1(systolic blood pressure +18 (buffalo hump. On ROC Curve analysis, IFLI performed better than all published prediction equations, except one.Non-diabetic Asian Indians with NAFLD researched by us were overweight/obese, had excess abdominal and subcutaneous fat, multiple other phenotypic markers, had higher insulin resistance, glycemia, dyslipidemia and subclinical inflammation than those without. Prediction score developed by us for NAFLD; IFLI-C and IFLI-CB, should be useful for

  12. Trends in Internet Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Panchanathan, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

  13. The reciprocal influences of perceived risk for alcoholism and alcohol use over time: evidence for aversive transmission of parental alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Moira M; Chassin, Laurie

    2010-07-01

    This study examined how perceived risk for alcoholism and alcohol use influenced each other over time. We hypothesized an aversive transmission mechanism, by which some children of alcoholics may reduce their drinking because they perceive themselves to be at risk for future alcohol problems because of their parents' alcoholism. Using participants (N = 804, 47% female) from an ongoing longitudinal study of children of alcoholics (e.g., Chassin et al., 1991), we examined the reciprocal prospective relations between perceived risk for alcoholism and drinking across three measurement occasions, and also tested whether perceived risk for alcoholism mediated the effect of perceived parental alcoholism on subsequent drinking. Mediation analyses provided evidence for aversive transmission, in which the effect of perceived parental alcoholism on alcohol use during young adulthood was decreased to the extent that perceived parental alcoholism predicted higher levels of perceived risk for alcoholism during emerging adulthood. Results indicated reciprocal effects between perceived risk for alcoholism and drinking over time, such that higher levels of perceived risk were associated with lower levels of drinking. Results were replicated using both self-report and collateral-report of alcohol use, and using both actual and perceived parental alcoholism. Young adults may avoid drinking when they perceive their parent(s) to be alcoholic, and consequently perceive themselves to be at elevated risk for alcoholism. Given that beliefs about risk for alcoholism are potentially modifiable, increasing self-perceived risk for alcoholism may be one feasible way to reduce the intergenerational transmission of alcohol disorders within families.

  14. Alcohol Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Drinking to Excess U.S. National Library of Medicine, Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse Last Updated: June 27, 2017 This article was contributed by: familydoctor.org editorial staff Categories: Family Health, Kids and Teens, Men, Seniors, WomenTags: alcohol, alcohol abuse, alcohol addiction ...

  15. THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF THE PREDICTIONAL INSTRUMENTATION FOR APPLICATION IN THE STATE REGULATION OF THE PARTICIPANTS RELATIONSHIPS IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiia Koliesnichenko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the problems of current trends in the development of the electric power industry in conditions of increasing capital concentration, informing the economy and increasing the dynamics of the movement of significant amounts of cash flows which require a permanent analysis of the current situation and the necessary adjustment and / or modification of the parameters for the regulation of energy markets. From this article it can be concluded that the task of constructing forecasts acquires high relevance in many subject areas. It is an integral component of the daily work of modern social and economical systems. The interrelations of the subjects of the electric energy market are the one of the its most important institutions. The purpose of this article is to study the theoretical basis for the adaptive application of forecasting methods in the functioning of energy markets. In order to avoid the dominance of commercial interests of certain groups of participants in the energy market, the emergence of price distortions in the market that have a destructive effect on obtaining potential benefits from the introduction of competitive mechanisms, the key to finding the most effective and economical way to solve these problems is the use of systemic regulation of emerging deviations in achieving target milestones especially in the context of reform. The informational and analytical support formation for the performance of the functions assigned to the regulatory apparatus requires the use of forecasting methods and approaches to preserve the dynamic development of the electric energy market and to maintain the balance of interests of all its subjects in the conditions of reform. The article uses a number of methods: classification and systematization in the analysis of scientific methods for forecasting and planning social and economic processes, logical generalization when reviewing existing modeling methods and assessing their

  16. Prediction of prevalent but not incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease by levels of serum testosterone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Nam Kyoung; Koo, Hyung Suk; Haam, Ji-Hee; Kim, Hyung Yuk; Kim, Moon Jong; Park, Kyung-Chae; Park, Kye-Seon; Kim, Young-Sang

    2015-07-01

    The association between testosterone level and development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well known. We examined the relationship of total testosterone level with development and regression of NAFLD. Among the men who had undergone repeated liver ultrasonography in 2 years or more at a health promotion center, subjects with available serum testosterone level at baseline were included in the study. Alcohol consumers (> 20 g/day) were excluded from the study. Among the 1944 men, 44.3% of subjects were diagnosed with NAFLD. Higher level of testosterone significantly lowered the prevalence of fatty liver (odds ratios per SD increase, 0.686 and 0.795 at baseline and follow-up, respectively). During the median 4.2 years follow-up, 22.4% of subjects in the normal group developed fatty liver, and 21.0% of subjects in the NAFLD group recovered at the follow-up. In longitudinal analyses, higher level of testosterone was significantly associated with the development or regression of fatty liver, before adjustment for obesity and metabolic parameters. However, in the full-adjusted model, testosterone level did not influence the development or regression of fatty liver. Although testosterone level was significantly low in the subjects with NAFLD in cross-sectional analyses, baseline testosterone level did not independently influence the development or regression of fatty liver at the median 4.2 years follow-up. Obesity and metabolic parameters may play key roles in the link between testosterone level and NAFLD. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  17. Assessment of alcohol advertising practices in Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    admin

    Results: Alcohol advertising practices in Ethiopia contravene with fundamental principles of marketing for alcoholic beverages. Advertisers use misleading information about alcoholic drinks, .... journalism, public health, medicine and law while 11 of them had master's degrees in journalism, public health and medical ...

  18. Monitoring Outdoor Alcohol Advertising in Developing Countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analyses on the placement, channels, size and content of outdoor alcohol advertising practices (N=807) in relation to existing regulations are given. For example, in Gambia, the country with the most stringent alcohol marketing regulations of all countries studied, outdoor alcohol advertisements are on average smaller and ...

  19. Fetal alcohol effects in alcoholic veteran patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tishler, P V; Henschel, C E; Ngo, T A; Walters, E E; Worobec, T G

    1998-11-01

    the most likely yielded a marginal association for small size at birth (odds ratio = 3.1, p = 0.08) and a significant association for the presence of a smooth philtrum (odds ratio = 11.9, p = 0.005). Predictability was poor in all regression models. Based on the presence of this single physical finding (smooth philtrum), we estimate that the prevalence of manifestations of fetal alcohol exposure (fetal alcohol effects) is 6 to 13% in adult male veteran children (not necessarily nonveteran offspring) of women who drank alcohol during pregnancy. Thus, in our study of adult veterans, most individuals who were born to women who drank during pregnancy could not be differentiated from normal individuals, and those who were affected were distinguished by a single, nonspecific physical finding.

  20. Marketing is everything.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, R

    1991-01-01

    Technology is creating customer choice, and choice is altering the marketplace. Gone are the days of the marketer as salesperson. Gone as well is marketing that tries to trick the customer into buying whatever the company makes. There is a new paradigm for marketing, a model that depends on the marketer's knowledge, experience, and ability to integrate the customer and the company. Six principles are at the heart of the new marketing. The first, "Marketing is everything and everything is marketing," suggests that marketing is like quality. It is not a function but an all-pervasive way of doing business. The second, "The goal of marketing is to own the market, not just to sell the product," is a remedy for companies that adopt a limiting "market-share mentality." When you own a market, you lead the market. The third principle says that "marketing evolves as technology evolves." Programmable technology means that companies can promise customers "any thing, any way, any time." Now marketing is evolving to deliver on that promise. The fourth principle, "Marketing moves from monologue to dialogue," argues that advertising is obsolete. Talking at customers is no longer useful. The new marketing requires a feedback loop--a dialogue between company and customer. The fifth principle says that "marketing a product is marketing a service is marketing a product." The line between the categories is fast eroding: the best manufacturing companies provide great service, the best service companies think of themselves as offering high-quality products. The sixth principle, "Technology markets technology," points out the inevitable marriage of marketing and technology and predicts the emergence of marketing workstations, a marketing counterpart to engineers' CAD/CAM systems.

  1. Predictability and co-movement relationships between conventional and Islamic stock market indexes: A multiscale exploration using wavelets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saâdaoui, Foued; Naifar, Nader; Aldohaiman, Mohamed S.

    2017-09-01

    This paper investigates the dynamical relationship between conventional and Islamic stock markets using the wavelet-assisted cross-spectral, cross-correlation and causality analyses. Relying on bivariate time series from emerging and developed markets, the aim is to find and recognize local microscopic signs of convergence or divergence. The data set covers a period of exceptional instability in the financial system that was accompanied by a significant slump in the global economic environment. The empirical results demonstrate an obvious strong dependence between conventional and Islamic indexes at low-frequency, while the dependence becomes rather instable in the finest frequencies across different investment time horizons. The relationship also took a special different form in the crisis period compared to relatively calm periods. In developed markets, indexes were the most correlated over many periods and at many frequencies, while the relationship in emerging markets tended to be less manifest, especially for short-term horizons, offering investors different investment alternatives and portfolio diversification opportunities. The pre- and post-crisis causality investigations at the end of the study suggested a bidirectional relationship in most cases, thereby offering further perspectives on multivariate forecasting.

  2. Optimizing Technical Education Pathways: Does Dual-Credit Course Completion Predict Students' College and Labor Market Success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, L. Allen; Chan, Hsun-Yu

    2016-01-01

    Post-recession Federal policy initiatives, such as secondary/postsecondary career pathways and gainful employment higher education accountability standards, prioritize the alignment of education practices with market-driven outcomes. Using longitudinal student record data merged from college and state K-12 data systems with the Unemployment…

  3. Exploring College Students' Use of General and Alcohol-Related Social Media and Their Associations with Alcohol-Related Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Eric W.; Pinkleton, Bruce E.; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors.…

  4. The potential of a human rights approach for accelerating the implementation of comprehensive restrictions on the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granheim, Sabrina Ionata; Vandevijvere, Stefanie; Torheim, Liv Elin

    2018-01-05

    Overweight and obesity in children is rising at the global level, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Among the causes for this increase is the marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products, which affects children's food preferences, purchasing requests and consumption patterns. The need to address harmful marketing to children has been recognized at the World Health Organization, with Member States having agreed in 2010 to implement a set of recommendations to restrict such practices. Concurrently, there is an increasing understanding of unhealthy food and malnutrition as human rights concerns. This paper explores the potential of existing legally and non-legally binding human rights instruments for accelerating the implementation of comprehensive restrictions to reduce harmful marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages to children. Four relevant themes were identified in existing human rights instruments: (i) the best interest of the child should be considered above all other interests; (ii) the rights to health and adequate food cannot be realized without supportive healthy environments; (iii) children should be protected from economic exploitation; and (iv) the persuasive marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products is explicitly recognized as a threat to the rights to food and health. In conclusion, existing human rights instruments could be harnessed to advance public health measures to restrict the marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products to children. Policy-makers and advocates should draw from these instruments and refer to State's obligations within international and domestic human rights law to strengthen their efforts to restrict harmful marketing practices to children. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Differential Impact of a Dutch Alcohol Prevention Program Targeting Adolescents and Parents Separately and Simultaneously: Low Self-Control and Lenient Parenting at Baseline Predict Effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, I.M.; Verdurmen, J.E.E.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Eijnden, R.J.J.M. van den; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

    <