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Sample records for air ingress scenarios

  1. Hypothetical air ingress scenarios in advanced modular high temperature gas cooled reactors

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1988-01-01

    Considering an extremely hypothetical scenario of complete cross duct failure and unlimited air supply into the reactor vessel of a modular high temperature gas cooled ractor, it is found that the potential air inflow remains limited due to the high friction pressure drop through the active core. All incoming air will be oxidized to CO and some local external burning would be temporarily possible in such a scenario. The accident would have to continue with unlimited air supply for hundreds of hours before the core structural integrity would be jeopardized

  2. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS

    Chang H Oh; Eung S Kim

    2011-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory carried out air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations. An isothermal test loop was designed and set to understand the stratified-flow phenomenon, which is important as the initial air flow into the lower plenum of the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) when a large break loss-of-coolant accident occurs. The unique flow characteristics were focused on the VHTR air-ingress accident, in particular, the flow visualization of the stratified flow in the inlet pipe to the vessel lower plenum of the General Atomic’s Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR). Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids, and water was used to represent a light fluid, which mimics a counter current flow due to the density difference between the stimulant fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between simulant fluids was established even for very small density differences. The CFD calculations were compared with experimental data. A grid sensitivity study on CFD models was also performed using the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for the numerical accuracy of CFD calculations . As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  3. Air ingress accidents in tokamaks

    Jones, A.V.; Roccok, P.

    1989-01-01

    Accidents are considered consisting in a breach in the vacuum wall of a fusion reactor, the ingress of air into the torus and the mobilization and expulsion of activated eroded-sputtered material. Previous evaluations on NET, assuming bare plasma-facing components, have been reviewed and new estimates of the rate of material discharge and of the total fraction of discharged material are calculated, including resettlement processes. The case of graphite-tiled walls, without and with combustion, is also examined. Radiological evaluations are then performed to assess the hazard posed by the discharged material both within the NET building and outside it. (author). 14 refs.; 4 figs.; 3 tabs

  4. AIR INGRESS ANALYSIS: COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODELS

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Richard Schultz; Hans Gougar; David Petti; Hyung S. Kang

    2010-08-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have ranked an air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as important with regard to core safety. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core of the High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor through the break, possibly causing oxidation of the in-the core and reflector graphite structure. Simple core and plant models indicate that, under certain circumstances, the oxidation may proceed at an elevated rate with additional heat generated from the oxidation reaction itself. Under postulated conditions of fluid flow and temperature, excessive degradation of the lower plenum graphite can lead to a loss of structural support. Excessive oxidation of core graphite can also lead to the release of fission products into the confinement, which could be detrimental to a reactor safety. Computational fluid dynamic model developed in this study will improve our understanding of this phenomenon. This paper presents two-dimensional and three-dimensional CFD results for the quantitative assessment of the air ingress phenomena. A portion of results of the density-driven stratified flow in the inlet pipe will be compared with results of the experimental results.

  5. Air ingression calculations for selected plant transients using MELCOR

    Kmetyk, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    Two sets of MELCOR calculations have been completed studying the effects of air ingression on the consequences of various severe accident scenarios. One set of calculations analyzed a station blackout with surge line failure prior to vessel breach, starting from nominal operating conditions; the other set of calculations analyzed a station blackout occurring during shutdown (refueling) conditions. Both sets of analyses were for the Surry plant, a three-loop Westinghouse PWR. For both accident scenarios, a basecase calculation was done, and then repeated with air ingression from containment into the core region following core degradation and vessel failure. In addition to the two sets of analyses done for this program, a similar air-ingression sensitivity study was done as part of a low-power/shutdown PRA, with results summarized here; that PRA study also analyzed a station blackout occurring during shutdown (refueling) conditions, but for the Grand Gulf plant, a BWR/6 with Mark III containment. These studies help quantify the amount of air that would have to enter the core region to have a significant impact on the severe accident scenario, and demonstrate that one effect, of air ingression is substantial enhancement of ruthenium release. These calculations also show that, while the core clad temperatures rise more quickly due to oxidation with air rather than steam, the core also degrades and relocates more quickly, so that no sustained, enhanced core heatup is predicted to occur with air ingression

  6. CFD Analyses of Air-Ingress Accident for VHTRs

    Ham, Tae Kyu

    The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is one of six proposed Generation-IV concepts for the next generation of nuclear powered plants. The VHTR is advantageous because it is able to operate at very high temperatures, thus producing highly efficient electrical generation and hydrogen production. A critical safety event of the VHTR is a loss-of-coolant accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. Following the depressurization process, the air (i.e., the air and helium mixture) in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core causing an air-ingress event. In the event of air-ingress into the reactor core, the high-temperature in-core graphite structures will chemically react with the air and could lose their structural integrity. We designed a 1/8th scaled-down test facility to develop an experimental database for studying the mechanisms involved in the air-ingress phenomenon. The current research focuses on the analysis of the air-ingress phenomenon using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool ANSYS FLUENT for better understanding of the air-ingress phenomenon. The anticipated key steps in the air-ingress scenario for guillotine break of VHTR cross vessel are: 1) depressurization; 2) density-driven stratified flow; 3) local hot plenum natural circulation; 4) diffusion into the reactor core; and 5) global natural circulation. However, the OSU air-ingress test facility covers the time from depressurization to local hot plenum natural circulation. Prior to beginning the CFD simulations for the OSU air-ingress test facility, benchmark studies for the mechanisms which are related to the air-ingress accident, were performed to decide the appropriate physical models for the accident analysis. In addition, preliminary experiments were performed with a simplified 1/30th scaled down acrylic set-up to understand the air-ingress

  7. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung Soo

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. ► Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. ► These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. ► In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts for proof of these principles. Results indicate that both concepts can effectively suppress air

  8. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    Oh, Chang H., E-mail: Chang.Oh@inl.gov [Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3870 (United States); Kim, Eung Soo [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, 559 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts

  9. Study of air ingress accident of an HTGR

    Hishida, Makoto

    1995-01-01

    Inherent properties of high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR) facilitate the design of HTGRs with high degree of passive safety performances. In this context, it is very important to establish a design criteria for a passive safe function for the air ingress accident. However, it is absolutely necessary to investigate the air ingress behavior during the accident before exploring the design criteria. The present paper briefly describes major activities and results of the air ingress research in our laboratory. (author)

  10. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    Hassan, Yassin

    2013-10-01

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  11. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    Hassan, Yassin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-06

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  12. Sensitivity studies of air ingress accidents in modular HTGRs

    Ball, Syd; Richards, Matt; Shepelev, Sergey

    2008-01-01

    Postulated air ingress accidents, while of very low probability in a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), are of considerable interest to the plant designer, operator, and regulator because of the possibility that the core could sustain significant damage under some circumstances. Sensitivity analyses are described that cover a wide spectrum of conditions affecting outcomes of the postulated accident sequences, for both prismatic and pebble-bed core designs. The major factors affecting potential core damage are the size and location of primary system leaks, flow path resistances, the core temperature distribution, and the long-term availability of oxygen in the incoming gas from a confinement building. Typically, all the incoming oxygen entering the core area is consumed within the reactor vessel, so it is more a matter of where, not whether, oxidation occurs. An air ingress model with example scenarios and means for mitigating damage are described. Representative designs of modular HTGRs included here are a 400-MW(th) pebble-bed reactor (PBR), and a 600-MW(th) prismatic-core modular reactor (PMR) design such as the gas-turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR)

  13. Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

    Brockers, Roland; Bouffard, Patrick; Ma, Jeremy; Matthies, Larry; Tomlin, Claire

    2011-01-01

    Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

  14. Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Chang Ho Oh; Eung Soo Kim; Hee Cheon No; Nam Zin Cho

    2008-12-01

    The US Department of Energy is performing research and development (R&D) that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Program / GEN-IV Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). Phenomena identification and ranking studies (PIRT) to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important (Schultz et al., 2006). Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation (V&V) are very high priority for the NGNP program. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization, air will enter the core through the break. Air ingress leads to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. The oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will cause the release of fission products eventually. The potential collapse of the bottom reflector because of burn-off and the release of CO lead to serious safety problems. For estimation of the proper safety margin we need experimental data and tools, including accurate multi-dimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. We also need to develop effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods R&D project. This project is focused on (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the bottom reflector, (d) structural tests of the burnt-off bottom reflector, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i

  15. Aspects of water and air ingress accidents in HTRs

    Wolters, J.

    1981-01-01

    The work has contributed towards improving the understanding of the processes taking place during water and air ingress accidents. The favourable design features of the THTR limit the pressure build-up in the primary circuit to values below critical values in water ingress accidents even when the source of water is not identified and shut-off. A pressure reduction by safety valves is in this case not necessary so that the accident consequences remain confined in the primary circuit. The expected air ingress rates following a depressurization accident through an opening in the top head of the PCRV are extremely small in the case of complete integration of the primary circuit in the PCRV. The chemical processes in the primary circuit remain so limited that no danger for the fuel elements and the containment exists. The often feared ''graphite fire'' can be excluded even in the case when the circulators of the after-heat removal systems take in a high percentage of containment atmosphere. The core is cooled down safely

  16. Studies on air ingress for pebble bed reactors

    Moore, R.L.; Oh, C.H.; Merrill, B.J.; Petti, D.A.

    2002-01-01

    A loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) has been considered a critical event for helium-cooled pebbled bed reactors. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that unless countermeasures are taken air will enter the core through the break and then by molecular diffusion and ultimately by natural convection leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and graphite pebbles. Thus, without any mitigating features a LOCA will lead to an air ingress event. The INEEL is studying such an event with two well-respected light water reactor transient response codes: RELAP5/ATHENA and MELCOR. To study the degree of graphite oxidation occurring due to an air ingress event, a MELCOR model of a reference pebble bed design was constructed. A modified version of MELCOR developed at INEEL, which includes graphite oxidation capabilities, and molecular diffusion of air into helium was used for these calculations. Results show that the lower reflector graphite consumes all of the oxygen before reaching the core. The results also show a long time delay between the time that the depressurization phase of the accident is over and the time that natural circulation air through the core occurs. (author)

  17. FINAL REPORT on Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Hee C. NO; Nam Z. Cho

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Generation IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking studies to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification & validation are of very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air ingress will occur through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. This study indicates that depending on the location and the size of the pipe break, the air ingress phenomena are different. In an effort to estimate the proper safety margin, experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model are required. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation, eventually. This 3-year project (FY 2008–FY 2010) is focused on various issues related to the VHTR air-ingress accident, including (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) structural tests of the oxidized core bottom structures, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i) verification and validation of the coupled models.

  18. Cladding oxidation during air ingress. Part II: Synthesis of modelling results

    Beuzet, E.; Haurais, F.; Bals, C.; Coindreau, O.; Fernandez-Moguel, L.; Vasiliev, A.; Park, S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A state-of-the-art for air oxidation modelling in the frame of severe accident is done. • Air oxidation models from main severe accident codes are detailed. • Simulations from main severe accident codes are compared against experimental results. • Perspectives in terms of need for further model development and experiments are given. - Abstract: Air ingress is a potential risk in some low probable situations of severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. Air is a highly oxidizing atmosphere that can lead to an enhanced Zr-based cladding oxidation and core degradation affecting the release of fission products. This is particularly true speaking about ruthenium release, due to its high radiotoxicity and its ability to form highly volatile oxides in a significant manner in presence of air. The oxygen affinity is decreasing from the Zircaloy cladding, fuel and ruthenium inclusions. It is consequently of great need to understand the phenomena governing cladding oxidation by air as a prerequisite for the source term issues in such scenarios. In the past years, many works have been done on cladding oxidation by air under severe accident conditions. This paper with in addition the paper “Cladding oxidation during air ingress – Part I: Synthesis of experimental results” of this journal issue aim at assessing the state of the art on this phenomenon. In this paper, the modelling of air ingress phenomena in the main severe accident codes (ASTEC, ATHLET-CD, MAAP, MELCOR, RELAP/SCDAPSIM, SOCRAT) is described in details, as well as the validation against the integral experiments QUENCH-10, QUENCH-16 and PARAMETER-SF4. A full review of cladding oxidation by air is thus established.

  19. Mitigate Strategy of Very High Temperature Reactor Air-ingress Accident

    Ham, Tae Kyu [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Arcilesi, David J.; Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard N. [The Ohio State University, Columbus (United States); Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung S. [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho (United States)

    2016-10-15

    A critical safety event of the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). Since a VHTR uses graphite as a core structure, if there is a break on the pressure vessel, the air in the reactor cavity could ingress into the reactor core. The worst case scenario of the accident is initiated by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. The operating pressures in the vessel and containment are about 7 and 0.1 MPa, respectively. In the VHTR, the reactor pressure vessel is located within a reactor cavity which is filled with air during normal operation. Therefore, the air-helium mixture in the cavity may ingress into the reactor pressure vessel after the depressurization process. In this paper, a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool, FLUENT, was used to figure out air-ingress mitigation strategies in the gas-turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) designed by General Atomics, Inc. After depressurization, there is almost no air in the reactor cavity; however, the air could flow back to the reactor cavity since the reactor cavity is placed in the lowest place in the reactor building. The heavier air could flow to the reactor cavity through free surface areas in the reactor building. Therefore, Argon gas injection in the reactor cavity is introduced. The injected argon would prevent the flow by pressurizing the reactor cavity initially, and eventually it prevents the flow by making the gas a heavier density than air in the reactor cavity. The gate opens when the reactor cavity is pressurized during the depressurization and it closes by gravity when the depressurization is terminated so that it can slow down the air flow to the reactor cavity.

  20. Experimental study on fundamental phenomena in HTGR small break air-ingress accident

    Kim, Jae Soon; Hwang, Jin-Seok; Kim, Eung Soo; Kim, Byung Jun; Oh, Chang Ho

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Air-ingress phenomena on the small break in a HTGR are experimentally investigated. • Experiment is investigated for various break sizes, angles, and density ratios. • Maximum air-ingress rate is observed at 120° in break angle. • This study reveals that air-ingress in the small break is governed by; buoyancy and flow inertia. • A non-dimensional parameter is newly proposed to determine the air-ingress flow regimes. • Newly proposed parameter is based on buoyancy versus inertia force. - Abstract: This study experimentally investigates fundamental phenomena in the HTGR small break air-ingress accident. Several important parameters including density ratio, break angle, break size, and main flow velocity are considered in the measurement and the analysis. The test-section is made of a circular pipe with small holes drilled around the surface and it is installed in the helium/air flow circulation loop. Oxygen concentrations and flow rates are recorded during the tests with fixed break angles, break sizes, and flow velocities for measurement of the air-ingress rates. According to the experimental results, the higher density difference leads to the higher rates of air-ingress with large sensitivity of the break angles. It is also found that the break angle significantly affects the air-ingress rates, which is gradually increased from 0° to 120° and suddenly decreased to 180°. The minimum air ingress rate is found at 0° and the maximum, at 110°. The air-ingress rate increases with the break size due to the increased flow-exchange area. However, it is not directly proportional to the break area due to the complexity of the phenomena. The increased flow velocity in the channel inside enhances the air-ingress process. However, among all the parameters, the main flow velocity exhibits the lowest effect on this process. In this study, the Froude Number relevant to the small break air-ingress conditions are newly defined considering both heavy

  1. SARNET2 benchmark on air ingress experiments QUENCH-10, -16

    Fernandez-Moguel, Leticia; Bals, Christine; Beuzet, Emilie; Bratfisch, Christian; Coindreau, Olivia; Hózer, Zoltan; Stuckert, Juri; Vasiliev, Alexander; Vryashkova, Petya

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Two similar QUENCH air ingress experiments were analysed with eight different codes. • Eight institutions have participated in the study. • Differences in the code were mostly small to moderate during the pre-oxidation. • Differences in the code were larger during the air phase. • Study has proven that there are physical processes that should be further studied. - Abstract: The QUENCH-10 (Q-10) and QUENCH-16 (Q-16) experiments were chosen as a SARNET2 code benchmark (SARNET2-COOL-D5.4) exercise to assess the status of modelling air ingress sequences and to compare the capabilities of the various codes used for accident analyses, specifically ATHLET-CD (GRS and RUB), ICARE-CATHARE (IRSN), MAAP (EDF), MELCOR (INRNE and PSI), SOCRAT (IBRAE), and RELAP/SCDAPSim (PSI). Both experiments addressed air ingress into an overheated core following earlier partial oxidation in steam. Q-10 was performed with extensive preoxidation, moderate/high air flow rate and high temperatures at onset of reflood (max T pct = 2200 K), while Q-16 was performed with limited preoxidation, low air flow rate and relative low temperatures at reflood initiation (max T pct = 1870 K). Variables relating to the major signatures (thermal response, hydrogen generation, oxide layer development, oxygen and nitrogen consumption and reflood behaviour) were compared globally and/or at selected locations. In each simulation, the same input models and assumptions are used for both experiments, differing only in respect of the boundary conditions. However, some slight idealisations were made to the assumed boundary conditions in order to avoid ambiguities in the code-to-code comparisons; in this way, it was possible to focus more easily on the key phenomena and hence make the results of the exercise more transparent. Remarks are made concerning the capability of physical modelling within the codes, description of the experiment facility and test conduct as specified in the code input

  2. Investigation of Countercurrent Helium-Air Flows in Air-ingress Accidents for VHTRs

    Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard; Oh, Chang

    2013-10-03

    The primary objective of this research is to develop an extensive experimental database for the air- ingress phenomenon for the validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. This research is intended to be a separate-effects experimental study. However, the project team will perform a careful scaling analysis prior to designing a scaled-down test facility in order to closely tie this research with the real application. As a reference design in this study, the team will use the 600 MWth gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) developed by General Atomic. In the test matrix of the experiments, researchers will vary the temperature and pressure of the helium— along with break size, location, shape, and orientation—to simulate deferent scenarios and to identify potential mitigation strategies. Under support of the Department of Energy, a high-temperature helium test facility has been designed and is currently being constructed at Ohio State University, primarily for high- temperature compact heat exchanger testing for the VHTR program. Once the facility is in operation (expected April 2009), this study will utilize high-temperature helium up to 900°C and 3 MPa for loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) depressurization and air-ingress experiments. The project team will first conduct a scaling study and then design an air-ingress test facility. The major parameter to be measured in the experiments is oxygen (or nitrogen) concentration history at various locations following a LOCA scenario. The team will use two measurement techniques: 1) oxygen (or similar type) sensors employed in the flow field, which will introduce some undesirable intrusiveness, disturbing the flow, and 2) a planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) imaging technique, which has no physical intrusiveness to the flow but requires a transparent window or test section that the laser beam can penetrate. The team will construct two test facilities, one for high-temperature helium tests with

  3. Oxidation parameters of nuclear graphite for HTGR air-ingress

    Kim, E.S.; No, H.C.

    2004-01-01

    In order to investigate chemical behaviors of the graphite during an air-ingress accident in HTGR, the kinetic tests on nuclear graphite IG-110 were performed in chemical reaction dominant regime. In the present experiment, inlet gas flow rate ranged between 8 and 18 SLPM, graphite temperatures and oxygen mole fraction ranged from 540 to 630degC and from 3 to 30% respectively. The test section was made of a quartz tube having 75 mm diameter and 750 mm length and the test specimen machined to the size of 21 mm diameter and 30 mm length was supported at the center of it by the alumina rod. The 15 kW induction heater was installed around the outside of test section to heat the specimen and its temperature was measured by 2 infrared thermometers. The oxidation rate was calculated from the gas concentration analysis between inlet and outlet using NDIR (non-dispersive infrared) gas analyzer. As a result the activation energy (Ea) and the order of reaction (n) were determined within 95% confidence level and the qualitative characteristics of the two parameters were also widely investigated by experimental and analytical methods. (author)

  4. Ruthenium transport experiments in air ingress accident conditions

    Teemu, Karkele; Ulrika, Backman; Ari, Auvinen; Unto, Tapper; Jorma, Jokiniemi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Fine Particles (Finland); Riitta, Zilliacus; Maija, Lipponen; Tommi, Kekki [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Accident Management (Finland); Jorma, Jokiniemi [Kuopio Univ., Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Fine Particle and Aerosol Technology Lab. (Finland)

    2007-07-01

    In this study the release, transport and speciation of ruthenium in conditions simulating an air ingress accident was studied. Ruthenium dioxide was exposed to oxidising environment at high temperature (1100-1700 K) in a tubular flow furnace. At these conditions volatile ruthenium species were formed. A large fraction of the released ruthenium was deposited in the tube as RuO{sub 2}. Depending on the experimental conditions 1-26 wt% of the released ruthenium was trapped in the outlet filter as RuO{sub 2} particles. In stainless steel tube 0-8.8 wt% of the released ruthenium reached the trapping bottle as gaseous RuO{sub 4}. A few experiments were carried out, in which revaporization of ruthenium deposited on the tube walls was studied. In these experiments, oxidation of RuO{sub 2} took place at a lower temperature. During revaporization experiments 35-65 % of ruthenium was transported as gaseous RuO{sub 4}. In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution 4 experiments were carried out using a radioactive tracer. In these experiments ruthenium profiles were measured. These experiments showed that the most important retention mechanism was decomposition of gaseous RuO{sub 3} into RuO{sub 2} as the temperature of the furnace was decreasing. In these experiments the transport rate of gaseous ruthenium was decreasing while the release rate was constant.

  5. Scaling and design analyses of a scaled-down, high-temperature test facility for experimental investigation of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident

    Arcilesi, David J.; Ham, Tae Kyu; Kim, In Hun; Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard N.; Oh, Chang H.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A 1/8th geometric-scale test facility that models the VHTR hot plenum is proposed. • Geometric scaling analysis is introduced for VHTR to analyze air-ingress accident. • Design calculations are performed to show that accident phenomenology is preserved. • Some analyses include time scale, hydraulic similarity and power scaling analysis. • Test facility has been constructed and shake-down tests are currently being carried out. - Abstract: A critical event in the safety analysis of the very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) is an air-ingress accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the coaxial cross vessel, which leads to a rapid reactor vessel depressurization. In a VHTR, the reactor vessel is located within a reactor cavity that is filled with air during normal operating conditions. Following the vessel depressurization, the dominant mode of ingress of an air–helium mixture into the reactor vessel will either be molecular diffusion or density-driven stratified flow. The mode of ingress is hypothesized to depend largely on the break conditions of the cross vessel. Since the time scales of these two ingress phenomena differ by orders of magnitude, it is imperative to understand under which conditions each of these mechanisms will dominate in the air ingress process. Computer models have been developed to analyze this type of accident scenario. There are, however, limited experimental data available to understand the phenomenology of the air-ingress accident and to validate these models. Therefore, there is a need to design and construct a scaled-down experimental test facility to simulate the air-ingress accident scenarios and to collect experimental data. The current paper focuses on the analyses performed for the design and operation of a 1/8th geometric scale (by height and diameter), high-temperature test facility. A geometric scaling analysis for the VHTR, a time

  6. FY-09 Report: Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2009-12-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Gen-IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have identified that an air ingress event following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization is a very important incident. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. If this accident occurs, the oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will eventually cause the release of fission products. The potential collapse of the core bottom structures causing the release of CO and fission products is one of the concerns. Therefore, experimental validation with the analytical model and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model developed in this study is very important. Estimating the proper safety margin will require experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods Research and Development project. The second year of this three-year project (FY-08 to FY-10) was focused on (a) the analytical, CFD, and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow; (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments and modeling; (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) implementation of advanced

  7. Air ingress behavior during a primary-pipe rupture accident of HTGR

    Takeda, Tetsuaki

    1997-11-01

    The inherent properties of a HTGR facilitates the design with high degree of passive safe performances, compared to other type. However, it is still not clear if the present HTGR can maintain a passive safe function during a primary-pipe rupture accident, or what would be design criteria to guarantee the HTGR with the high degree of passive safe performances during the accident. To investigate safe characteristics, the study has been performed experimentally and analytically on the air ingress behavior during the accident. It was indicated that there are two stages in the accident of the HTGR having a reverse U-shaped channel. In the first stage, an air ingress process limits molecular diffusion and natural circulation of the gas mixture having a very slow velocity. In the second stage, the air ingress process limits the ordinary natural circulation of air throughout the reactor. A numerical calculation code has been developed to analyze thermal-hydraulic behavior during the first stage. This code provides a numerical method for analyzing a transport phenomena in a multi-component gas system by solving one-dimensional basic equations and using a flow network model. It was possible to predict or analyze the air ingress process regarding the density of the gas mixture, concentration of each gas species and duration of the first stage of the accident. It was indicated that the safe characteristics of the HTGR from the present experiment as follows. The safety cooling rate that the air ingress process terminates during the first stage exists in the HTGR having the reverse U-shaped channel. Moreover, the ordinary natural circulation of air can not produce in the second stage by injecting helium from the bottom of the pressure vessel corresponding the low-temperature side channel. Therefore, it was found that the idea of helium injection is one of useful methods for the prevention of air ingress and of graphite corrosion in the future HTGRs. (J.P.N.). 74 refs

  8. Modeling of the consequences of an air ingress in the vessel on the source term calculation in a severe accident

    Beuzet, E.

    2010-01-01

    This work deals with severe accidents in nuclear power plants with an air ingress in the vessel. Air, which is very oxidizing, enhances noticeably ruthenium release, due to a high fuel oxidation. Oxygen affinity is decreasing between zircaloy cladding, fuel and ruthenium which is released from fuel as volatile and radio-toxic oxides. The main objective was to develop models for cladding and fuel oxidation and ruthenium release and implement them in the severe accident code MAAP. For each phenomenon, the literature study contributes to establish numerical models, validated against specific experiments. Cladding oxidation by air leads to a dense zirconia layer and, after cracking, a porous zirconia. Its modelling was validated against QUENCH-10 (KIT) and PARAMETER-SF4 (LUCH) experiments and 'NUREG' oxide mass gain law was selected as the best current compromise. Ruthenium release is modelled as an instantaneous oxide volatilisation at the fuel surface, controlled by fuel oxidation, which is itself based on a surface reaction assumption. These models were validated against a selected set of VERCORS (CEA) experiments. Ruthenium release is well-reproduced, particularly for air and steam atmospheres. To finish, an accidental scenario with air ingress in the vessel was simulated: a first value was given for the time needed to completely release ruthenium still present in core and was compared to the other studies. This simulation underlines the high ruthenium release under air conditions. (author)

  9. Study air ingress into the reactor vessel using ICARE/CATHARE V2.0 in case of severe accident

    Gwenaelle Le Dantec; Fichot, F.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Safety analyses show that core degradation during a severe reactor accident would not be uniform. This was confirmed by TMI2 examinations. In fact, a central region of the core may overheat, melt and flow down to the lower plenum of the reactor while peripheral regions of the core would remain almost intact. Following rupture of the vessel by molten debris, air may be drawn from the containment by natural convection into the reactor coolant system, and react with the intact rods. Studying air ingress into the reactor vessel is of interest because the interaction of air with Zircaloy cladding can strongly affect the evolution of severe accident scenarios. The main effects are heat generation, increasing clad degradation, fission product release and nitriding. In case of air/steam recirculation in the vessel, significant nitriding of cladding can occur. The resulting ZrN phase is characterized by its brittleness and instability under oxidizing conditions, Oxidation of pre-existing ZrN phase layers has been observed to result in violent oxidation and heat release. Therefore, the first consequence for safety is a risk of strong deflagration in the vessel if a large number of rods on which a substantial layer of ZrN has grown are suddenly in contact with oxygen or steam. The second consequence is a late melting of core materials due to the very exothermic oxidation, leading to a late release of materials out of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In this paper we present an ICARE/CATHARE V2.0 calculation simulating air ingress into the vessel and in particular to describe the nitriding due to natural convection in the reactor vessel. The basic modeling and the necessary extensions of both ICARE and CATHARE are explained. The natural circulation is calculated to predict the regions of oxygen starvation where nitriding takes place. Key words: air ingress, nitriding, ICARE/CATHARE V2.0. (authors)

  10. CFD investigating the air ingress accident for a HTGR simulation of graphite corrosion oxidation

    Ferng, Y.M.; Chi, C.W.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A CFD model is proposed to investigate graphite oxidation corrosion in the HTR-10. ► A postulated air ingress accident is assumed in this paper. ► Air ingress flowrate is the predicted result, instead of the preset one. ► O 2 would react with graphite on pebble surface, causing the graphite corrosion. ► No fuel exposure is predicted to be occurred under the air ingress accident. - Abstract: Through a compressible multi-component CFD model, this paper investigates the characteristics of graphite oxidation corrosion in the HTR-10 core under the postulated accident of gas duct rupture. In this accident, air in the steam generator cavity would enter into the core after pressure equilibrium is achieved between the core and the cavity, which is also called as the air ingress accident. Oxygen in the air would react with graphite on pebble surface, subsequently resulting in oxidation corrosion and challenging fuel integrity. In this paper, characteristics of graphite oxidation corrosion during the air ingress accident can be reasonably captured, including distributions of graphite corrosion amount on the different cross-sections, time histories of local corrosion amount at the monitoring points and overall corrosion amount in the core, respectively. Based on the transient simulation results, the corrosion pattern and its corrosion rate would approach to the steady-state conditions as the accident continuously progresses. The total amount of graphite corrosion during a 3-day accident time is predicted to be about 31 kg with the predicted asymptotic corrosion rate. This predicted value is less than that from the previous work of Gao and Shi.

  11. Feasibility study on naturally safe HTGR (NSHTR) for air ingress accident

    Ohashi, Hirofumi, E-mail: ohashi.hirofumi@jaea.go.jp; Sato, Hiroyuki; Tachibana, Yukio; Kunitomi, Kazuhiko; Ogawa, Masuro

    2014-05-01

    A new design activity for an advanced reactor, referred to as a naturally safe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (NSHTR), has been launched by authors after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The concept of NSHTR is that the release of radioactive materials is kept at very low level and no harmful effect on people and the environment is ensured by only physical phenomena even in the absence of engineered safety features. At an air ingress accident, possible physical events that lead to the loss or degradation of the confinement function of the fuel-coating layers are the crack of the coatings caused by the explosion of carbon monoxide (CO) produced by the graphite oxidation and failure of the coatings by melting or sublimation caused by core heat up due to the reaction heat of the graphite oxidation. In this study, the CO concentration and the heat generated by graphite oxidation inside the circular tube were evaluated parametrically using a steady-state one-dimensional model to confirm the feasibility of NSHTR at a severe condition of the air ingress accident (i.e., a massive air ingress by simultaneous rupture of two primary pipes). It was confirmed that the CO concentration at the outlet of coolant channel can be maintained below the explosion limit due to the reaction with oxygen in the air, and the reaction heat can be removed with the decay heat by physical phenomena under certain conditions of the coolant channel geometry without any engineered safety features. The results revealed that the design of NSHTR is technically feasible in terms of the suppression of the CO explosion and the heat removal of the reaction heat at the air ingress accident.

  12. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY: DESCRIPTION AND SUMMARY OF DATA

    Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung S.

    2010-01-01

    Idaho National Laboratory performed air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics code (CFD). An isothermal stratified flow experiment was designed and set to understand stratified flow phenomena in the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) and to provide experimental data for validating computer codes. The isothermal experiment focused on three flow characteristics unique in the VHTR air-ingress accident: stratified flow in the horizontal pipe, stratified flow expansion at the pipe and vessel junction, and stratified flow around supporting structures. Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids and water was used as light fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between heavy and light fluids is generated even for very small density differences. The code was validated by conducting blind CFD simulations and comparing the results to the experimental data. A grid sensitivity study was also performed based on the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for modeling confidence. As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  13. Technical Issues Associated with Air Ingression During Core Degradation

    Powers, Dana A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper has shown that it is possible to get significant air intrusion into a ruptured reactor vessel even from a reactor cavity with restricted access. This suggests that there is some importance to considering the consequences of air intrusion following vessel penetration by core debris. The consequences will depend on the nature of core degradation in air and other oxidizing gases. If, indeed, fuel becomes exposed to strongly oxidizing gases, significant releases of ruthenium and hexavalent urania can be expected. Hexavalent urania could alter the nature of cesium release and cesium revaporization from the reactor coolant system. Hexavalent urania could destabilize CSI and enhance the formation of gaseous iodine unless there are other materials that will react readily with atomic iodine along the flow path to the reactor containment

  14. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, Ul; Auvinen, A.; Zilliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J.

    2007-03-01

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In a severe accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium may oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species, it is of interest to know, how they are formed and how they behave. In our experiments the formation and transport of volatile ruthenium oxides was studied by exposing RuO2 powder to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. Transport of gaseous RuO4 was further investigated by injecting it into the facility in similar conditions. Upon cooling of the gas flow RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed from the gas stream with plane filters. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close the mass balance and to achieve better time resolution seven experiment were carried out using radioactive tracer. In this report, the facility for the ruthenium behaviour study and results from experiments are presented. Preliminary conclusions from the experiments are reported as well. Final conclusions will be made after modelling of the facility is completed in a continuation work of this study. (au)

  15. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, Ul; Auvinen, A.; Zilliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J. [Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT (Finland)

    2007-03-15

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In a severe accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium may oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species, it is of interest to know, how they are formed and how they behave. In our experiments the formation and transport of volatile ruthenium oxides was studied by exposing RuO2 powder to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. Transport of gaseous RuO4 was further investigated by injecting it into the facility in similar conditions. Upon cooling of the gas flow RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed from the gas stream with plane filters. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close the mass balance and to achieve better time resolution seven experiment were carried out using radioactive tracer. In this report, the facility for the ruthenium behaviour study and results from experiments are presented. Preliminary conclusions from the experiments are reported as well. Final conclusions will be made after modelling of the facility is completed in a continuation work of this study. (au)

  16. Computational fluid dynamics analysis of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident using a scaled-down model

    Ham, Tae K., E-mail: taekyu8@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arcilesi, David J., E-mail: arcilesi.1@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kim, In H., E-mail: ihkim0730@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Sun, Xiaodong, E-mail: sun.200@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Christensen, Richard N., E-mail: rchristensen@uidaho.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Oh, Chang H. [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Kim, Eung S., E-mail: kes7741@snu.ac.kr [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • Uncertainty quantification and benchmark study are performed to validate an ANSYS FLUENT computer model for a depressurization process in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. • An ANSYS FLUENT computer model of a 1/8th scaled-down geometry of a VHTR hot exit plenum is presented, which is similar to the experimental test facility that has been constructed at The Ohio State University. • Using the computer model of the scaled-down geometry, the effects of the depressurization process and flow oscillations on the subsequent density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are examined computationally. • The effects of the scaled-down hot exit plenum internal structure temperature on the density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are investigated numerically. - Abstract: An air-ingress accident is considered to be one of the design basis accidents of a very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR). The air-ingress accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a complete break of the hot duct in what is referred to as a double-ended guillotine break. This leads to an initial loss of the primary helium coolant via depressurization. Following the depressurization process, the air–helium mixture in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core via the hot duct and hot exit plenum. In the event that air ingresses into the reactor vessel, the high-temperature graphite structures in the reactor core and hot plenum will chemically react with the air, which could lead to damage of in-core graphite structures and fuel, release of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, core heat up, failure of the structural integrity of the system, and eventually the release of radionuclides to the environment. Studies in the available literature focus on the phenomena of the air ingress accident that occur after the termination of the depressurization, such as density-driven stratified flow, molecular diffusion, and natural circulation. However, a recent study

  17. Separate-effects experiments on the hydrodynamics of air ingress phenomena for the very high temperature reactor

    Kim, S.; Talley, J.; Yadav, M.; Ireland, A.; Bajorek, S.

    2011-01-01

    The present study performs scaled separate-effects experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics in the air-ingress phenomena following a Depressurized Condition Cooldown in the Very High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. First, a scoping experiment using water and brine is performed. The volumetric exchange rate is measured using a hydrometer, and flow visualizations are performed. Next, Helium-air experiments are performed to obtain three-dimensional oxygen concentration transient data using an oxygen analyzer. It is found that there exists a critical density difference ratio, before which the ingress rate increases linearly with time and after which the ingress rate slows down significantly. In both the water-brine and Helium-air experiments, this critical ratio is found to be approximately 0.7. (author)

  18. Separate-effects experiments on the hydrodynamics of air ingress phenomena for the very high temperature reactor

    Kim, S.; Talley, J.; Yadav, M., E-mail: skim@psu.edu [The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, Pennsylvania (United States); Ireland, A.; Bajorek, S. [The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC (United States)

    2011-07-01

    The present study performs scaled separate-effects experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics in the air-ingress phenomena following a Depressurized Condition Cooldown in the Very High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. First, a scoping experiment using water and brine is performed. The volumetric exchange rate is measured using a hydrometer, and flow visualizations are performed. Next, Helium-air experiments are performed to obtain three-dimensional oxygen concentration transient data using an oxygen analyzer. It is found that there exists a critical density difference ratio, before which the ingress rate increases linearly with time and after which the ingress rate slows down significantly. In both the water-brine and Helium-air experiments, this critical ratio is found to be approximately 0.7. (author)

  19. Analytical support for the preparation of bundle test QUENCH-10 on air ingress

    Birchley, J.; Haste, T.; Homann, C.; Hering, W.

    2005-07-01

    Bundle test QUENCH-10 is dedicated to study air ingress with subsequent water quench during a supposed accident in a spent fuel storage tank. It was proposed by AEKI, Budapest, Hungary and was performed on 21 July 2004 in the QUENCH facility at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. Preparation of the test is based on common analytical work at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland, mainly with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5 and MELCOR, to derive the protocol for the essential test phases, namely pre-oxidation, air ingress and quench phase. For issues that could not be tackled by this computational work, suggestions for the test conduct were made and applied during the test. Improvements of the experimental set-up and the test conduct were suggested and largely applied. In SCDAP/RELAP5, an error was found: for thick oxide scales, the output value of the oxide scale is sensibly underestimated. For the aims of the test preparation, its consequences could be taken into account. Together with the related computational and other analytical support by the engaged institutions the test is co-financed as test QUENCH-L1 by the European Community under the Euratom Fifth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety 1998 - 2002 (LACOMERA Project, contract No. FIR1-CT2002-40158). (orig.)

  20. Experimental and analytical investigations to air and steam ingress into the vacuum vessel of fusion reactors

    Kruessenberg, A.K.

    1996-12-01

    The basic fusion safety objective is the development of fusion power plants with features that protect individuals, society and the environment by establishing and maintaining an effective defence against radiological and other hazards. The most important specific principle is the establishment of three sequential levels of defence, characterized in priority order by prevention, protection and mitigation. The safety conscious selection of materials as one prevention feature gives the basis for the work described in this report. In order to protect the metallic first wall of fusion reactors from direct interaction with the plasma an extra armour is foreseen. Carbon offers the features low atomic number, high melting point, high thermal conductivity and good mechanical stability up to high temperatures making it to a favourite armour material. Looking on the safety behaviour of fusion reactors it has to be noted that carbon is unstable against oxidizing media like oxygen and steam at high temperatures und carbon has a high sorption capacity for radiologically important tritium. And tritium used as intermediate fuel in the actual reactor concepts is the one form radioactivity is present in fusion reactors. Accidents like loss of vacuum (LOVA) will lead to an air ingress into the vacuum vessel, oxidation of the hot carbon and a partial mobilization of the sorbed tritium. In a similar manner loss of coolant into vacuum (LOCIV) will lead to a water/steam ingress into the vacuum vessel, also accompanied by carbon oxidation and tritium release. (orig.)

  1. Effect of air ingress on the energy performance of coal fired thermal power plants

    Siddhartha Bhatt, M.

    2007-01-01

    Ingress of air in boilers leads to drops in energy efficiency. This paper presents the effects of air ingress in the combustion zone, post-combustion zone and air pre-heater (APH) on the energy efficiency and loading capacity of a coal fired thermal power plant operating on fuel with high ash (35-45%). The optimal O 2 in the flue gas for a pulverized coal fired system is 3.5% (corresponding to 20% excess air). The operating values are in the range of 4.2-6.0% in membrane type boilers and up to 10% in refractory type boilers (after sustained periods of operation). The leakage rate of boilers (up to the entrance of the APH) is designed at 0.2% while the average operating values are 7.25% for membrane type enclosures and 33.61% for refractory enclosures. The leakage rate of the APH is designed at 5.0% while the operating values range from 13.66% to 20.13% for rotary and tubular APHs. When the O 2 in the combustion zone varies from 3.5% to 8.0%, efficiency drops of 2.0% points are experienced in the boiler and turbine separately, and the gross overall efficiency drop is ∼3.0% points. The units do not experience any capacity drop up to an O 2 in the flue gas of 6.0% before the APH. At an O 2 in the flue gas (before APH) of 7.2%, a mild limitation on the unit capacity of around 2-3% is experienced. When O 2 in the flue gas (before APH) reaches a level of 9.0%, 20% capacity drop of the unit is experienced due to which the plant load cannot be raised higher than 80%. Beyond the level of 9.0% (rare occurrence), the unit is quite difficult to operate and has to be taken off for overhaul

  2. Air ingress and graphite burning in HTRs: A survey on analytical examinations performed with the code React/Thermix

    Moormann, R.

    1995-05-01

    Analyses on air ingress in the pebble bed reactors PNP-500, THTR-300, HTR-Modul, AVR-II and AVR process heat plant are outlined; in addition, some results for the VHTR with block type fuel are given. Air ingress requires primary circuit depressurization and large leak(s) to reactor buildings and environment and belongs therefore to highly hypothetical events in the sense of classical safety analysis. One accident class examined is air ingress with forced flow by emergency cooling: For this case, the range of mass flow/air content in cooling gas has been evaluated, in which safe core cool down is possible resp. long term core burning occurs; for highest available emergency cooling flow, a safe cool down of the THTR-300, which has no reactor building, is possible for up to 20 vol-% of air in the cooling gas, wheras low flow allows only for about 5 vol-%. If the amount of available air is restricted to the content of a reactor building, as is examined for the PNP-500, relevant consequences have not to be expected; this remains also true for forced convection flow, if burning of CO, formed by graphite oxidation, within the building is considered. For the second accident class examined, air ingress with natural convection flow by chimney draught as studied for the HTR-Modul and some other concepts, the time span until significant fission product release begins has been determined; in case, that the bottom reflector is hot at accident start (> 600 C) and therefore consumes most of the ingressing oxygen, this time span is at least several hours and leak tightening counter measures may be possible. (orig./HP)

  3. Separate-effect tests on zirconium cladding degradation in air ingress situations

    Duriez, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, IRSN, Direction de Prevention des Accidents Majeurs, Centre de Cadarache, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France)], E-mail: christian.duriez@irsn.fr; Steinbrueck, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, FZK, Institut fuer Materialforschung, Postfach 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Ohai, D.; Meleg, T. [Institute for Nuclear Research, INR, Nuclear Material and Corrosion Department, Pitesti, 115400 Mioveni Arges (Romania); Birchley, J.; Haste, T. [Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    In the event of air ingress during a reactor or spent fuel pond low probability accident, the fuel rods will be exposed to air-containing atmospheres at high temperatures. In comparison with steam, the presence of air is expected to result in a more rapid escalation of the accident. A state-of-the-art review performed before SARNET started showed that the existing data on zirconium alloy oxidation in air were scarce. Moreover, the exact role of zirconium nitride on the cladding degradation process was poorly understood. Regarding the cladding behaviour in air + steam or nitrogen-enriched atmospheres (encountered in oxygen-starved conditions), almost no data were available. New experimental programmes comprising small-scale tests have therefore been launched at FZK, IRSN (MOZART programme in the frame of the International Source Term Program-ISTP) and INR. Zircaloy-4 cladding in PWR (FZK, IRSN) and in CANDU (INR) geometry are investigated. On-line kinetic data are obtained on centimetre size tube segments, by thermogravimetry (FZK, IRSN and INR) or by mass spectrometry (FZK). Plugged tubes 15 cm long (FZK) are also investigated. The samples are air-oxidised either in the 'as-received' state, or after pre-oxidation in steam. 'Analytical' tests at constant temperature and gas composition provide basic kinetic data, while more prototypical temperature transients and sequential gas compositions are also investigated. The temperature domains extend from 600 deg. C up to 1500 deg. C. Systematic post-test metallographic inspections are performed. The paper gives a synthesis of the results obtained, comparing them in terms of kinetics and oxide scale structure and composition. A comparative analysis is performed with results of the QUENCH-10 (Q-10) bundle test, which included an air ingress phase. It is shown how the data contribute to a better understanding of the cladding degradation process, especially regarding the role of nitrogen. For modelling of

  4. Separate-effect tests on zirconium cladding degradation in air ingress situations

    Duriez, C.; Steinbrueck, M.; Ohai, D.; Meleg, T.; Birchley, J.; Haste, T.

    2009-01-01

    In the event of air ingress during a reactor or spent fuel pond low probability accident, the fuel rods will be exposed to air-containing atmospheres at high temperatures. In comparison with steam, the presence of air is expected to result in a more rapid escalation of the accident. A state-of-the-art review performed before SARNET started showed that the existing data on zirconium alloy oxidation in air were scarce. Moreover, the exact role of zirconium nitride on the cladding degradation process was poorly understood. Regarding the cladding behaviour in air + steam or nitrogen-enriched atmospheres (encountered in oxygen-starved conditions), almost no data were available. New experimental programmes comprising small-scale tests have therefore been launched at FZK, IRSN (MOZART programme in the frame of the International Source Term Program-ISTP) and INR. Zircaloy-4 cladding in PWR (FZK, IRSN) and in CANDU (INR) geometry are investigated. On-line kinetic data are obtained on centimetre size tube segments, by thermogravimetry (FZK, IRSN and INR) or by mass spectrometry (FZK). Plugged tubes 15 cm long (FZK) are also investigated. The samples are air-oxidised either in the 'as-received' state, or after pre-oxidation in steam. 'Analytical' tests at constant temperature and gas composition provide basic kinetic data, while more prototypical temperature transients and sequential gas compositions are also investigated. The temperature domains extend from 600 deg. C up to 1500 deg. C. Systematic post-test metallographic inspections are performed. The paper gives a synthesis of the results obtained, comparing them in terms of kinetics and oxide scale structure and composition. A comparative analysis is performed with results of the QUENCH-10 (Q-10) bundle test, which included an air ingress phase. It is shown how the data contribute to a better understanding of the cladding degradation process, especially regarding the role of nitrogen. For modelling of the oxide scale

  5. Experimental study on air ingress during a primary pipe rupture accident with a graphite reactor core simulator

    Takeda, Tetsuaki; Hishida, Makoto; Baba, Shinichi

    1991-11-01

    When a primary coolant pipe of a High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) ruptures, helium gas in the reactor core blows out into the container, and the primary cooling system reduces the pressure. After the pressures are balanced between the reactor and the container, air is expected to enter into the reactor core from the breach. It seems to be probable that the graphite structures is oxidized by air. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the air ingress process and the behavior of the generating gases by the oxidation reactions. The previous experimental study is performed on the molecular diffusion and natural convection of the two component gas mixtures using a test model simulating simply the reactor. Objective of the study was to investigate the air ingress process during the early stage of the primary pipe rupture accident. However, since the model did not have any kind of graphite components, the reaction between graphite and oxygen was not simulated. The present model includes the reactor core and the high temperature plenum simulators made of graphite. The major results obtained in the present study are summarized in the followings: (1) The air ingress process with graphite oxidation reaction is similar to that without the reaction qualitatively. (2) When the reactor core simulator is maintained at low temperatures (lower than 450degC), the initiation time of the natural circulation of air is almost equal to that of the natural circulation of nitrogen. On the other hand, when the temperature of the reactor core simulator is high (more than 500degC), the initiation time of the natural circulation of air is earlier than that of nitrogen. (3) When the temperature of the reactor core simulator is higher than 600degC, oxygen is almost dissipated by the graphite structures. When the temperature of the reactor core simulator is below 700degC, carbon dioxide mainly is generated by the oxidation reactions. (author)

  6. Oxidation kinetics of innovative carbon materials with respect to severe air ingress accidents in HTRs and graphite disposal or processing

    Schloegel, Baerbel

    2010-01-01

    Currently future nuclear reactor concepts of the Fourth Generation (Gen IV) are under development. To some extend they apply with new, innovative materials developed just for this purpose. This thesis work aims at a concept of Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR) in the framework of the European project RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation). The concept named ANTARES (AREVA New Technology based on advanced gas-cooled Reactors for Energy Supply) was developed by AEVA NP. It is a helium cooled, graphite moderated modular reactor for electricity and hydrogen production, by providing the necessary process heat due to its high working temperature. Particular attention is given here to oxidation kinetics of newly developed carbon materials (NBG-17) with still unknown but needed information in context of severe air ingress accident in VHTR's. Special interest is paid to the Boudouard reaction, the oxidation of carbon by CO 2 . In case of an air ingress accident, carbon dioxide is produced in the primary reaction of atmospheric oxygen with reflector graphite. From there CO 2 could flow into the reactor core causing further damage by conversion into CO. The purpose of this thesis is to ascertain if and to what degree this could happen. First of all oxidation kinetic data of the Boudouard reaction with NBG-17 is determined by experiments in a thermo gravimetric facility. The measurements are evaluated and converted into a common formula and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood similar oxidation kinetic equation, as input for the computer code REACT/THERMIX. This code is then applied to analyse severe air ingress accidents for several air flow rates. The results are discussed for two accident situations, in which a certain graphite burn off is achieved. All cases show much more damage to the graphite bottom reflector than to the reactor core. Thus the bottom reflector will lose its structural integrity much earlier than the core itself will

  7. Literature investigation of air/steam ingress through small cracks in concrete wall under pressure differences

    Jiang, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally within CANDU safety analysis, a loss coefficient of ∼2.8 is used to characterize turbulent flow leakage through narrow, sharp-edged cracks into, and out of Steam Protected Rooms (SPRs). In the event of main steam line break (MSLB), the pressure differences observed between SPRs and the surrounding area of the powerhouse range from 0.01kPa to 0.1 kPa. The relatively low pressure differences, coupled with narrow crack sizes, for instance, below 1 mm, may result in laminar flow leakage pathways as opposed to the turbulent variety assumed in analysis. The main purpose of this paper is thus (a) to calculate the loss coefficient for laminar flow through small cracks; and (b) to assess the effect of steam ingress to SPRs when the flow through some or all of the room leakage area is assumed to be laminar. Based on the literature review, the loss coefficient for laminar flow, through 1 mm crack size at 0.1 kPa pressure difference, ranges from 10 to about 65. This value represents an increase in loss coefficient of 3 ∼ 22 times the loss coefficient used for SPR safety analysis. The actual volumetric leakage rate is therefore 3 ∼ 8 times smaller than the amount previously applied. This paper demonstrates how the traditional loss coefficient used in safety analysis is extremely conservative in the analysis of the SPRs steam ingress phenomenon. (author)

  8. Literature investigation of air/steam ingress through small cracks in concrete wall under pressure differences

    Jiang, J.T. [McMaster Univ., Engineering Physics Dept., Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)], E-mail: jiangj3@mcmaster.ca

    2008-07-01

    Traditionally within CANDU safety analysis, a loss coefficient of {approx}2.8 is used to characterize turbulent flow leakage through narrow, sharp-edged cracks into, and out of Steam Protected Rooms (SPRs). In the event of main steam line break (MSLB), the pressure differences observed between SPRs and the surrounding area of the powerhouse range from 0.01kPa to 0.1 kPa. The relatively low pressure differences, coupled with narrow crack sizes, for instance, below 1 mm, may result in laminar flow leakage pathways as opposed to the turbulent variety assumed in analysis. The main purpose of this paper is thus (a) to calculate the loss coefficient for laminar flow through small cracks; and (b) to assess the effect of steam ingress to SPRs when the flow through some or all of the room leakage area is assumed to be laminar. Based on the literature review, the loss coefficient for laminar flow, through 1 mm crack size at 0.1 kPa pressure difference, ranges from 10 to about 65. This value represents an increase in loss coefficient of 3 {approx} 22 times the loss coefficient used for SPR safety analysis. The actual volumetric leakage rate is therefore 3 {approx} 8 times smaller than the amount previously applied. This paper demonstrates how the traditional loss coefficient used in safety analysis is extremely conservative in the analysis of the SPRs steam ingress phenomenon. (author)

  9. Study on air ingress during an early stage of a primary-pipe rupture accident of a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

    Hishida, M.; Takeda, T.

    1991-01-01

    A primary-pipe rupture accident is one of the design-based accidents of the HTTR. As the first step of our final goal of predicting the multicomponent gas flow in a reactor during the early stages of the accident, the present paper aims at studying experimentally and analytically, the basic features of air ingress and gas transportation by transient molecular diffusion and the transient natural convection of a two-component gas mixture. The present paper comprises two main parts. The first part deals with analytical and experimental studies on N 2 ingress (corresponding to air ingress) and gas transportation by molecular diffusion and the one-dimensional natural convection of an He-N 2 two-component gas mixture in a reverse-U-shaped tube. Analytical and experimental results are discussed on the N 2 mole fraction change with time after the simulated pipe rupture and on the initation time of the natural circulation of pure N 2 . The second part deals with a preliminary simulation test of air ingress during the early stages of the accident. The test is performed with a very simple model of the reactor. The experimental results are discussed on the change in mole fraction of air with time and on the initiation time of the natural circulation of pure air. (orig.)

  10. Analysis of diffusion process and influence factors in the air ingress accident of the HTR-PM

    Yanhua, Zheng, E-mail: zhengyh@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; Fubing, Chen; Lei, Shi

    2014-05-01

    Air ingress, one of the beyond design basis accidents for high temperature gas-cooled reactors, receives high attention during the design of the 250 MW pebble-bed modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), because it may result in severe consequence including the corrosion of the fuel element and graphite reflector. The diffusion process and the set-up time of the stable natural convection after the double-ended guillotine break of the hot-gas duct are studied in the paper. On the basis of the preliminary design of the HTR-PM and its DLOCA analysis results, the diffusion process, as well as the influence of the core temperature distribution and the length of the hot-gas duct, is studied with the DIFFLOW code, which adopts a one-dimension variable cross-section diffusion model with fixed wall temperature. To preliminarily estimate the influence of chemical reaction between oxygen and graphite, which will change the gas component of the mixture, the diffusion processes between the He/N{sub 2}, He/O{sub 2}, He/CO and He/CO{sub 2} are calculated, respectively. Furthermore, the code has been improved and the varying wall temperature can be simulated. The more accurate analysis is carried out with the changing temperature distribution from the DLOCA calculation. The analysis shows that there is enough time to adopt appropriate mitigation measures to stop the air ingress and the severe consequence of fuel element damage and large release of fission product can be avoided.

  11. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents - Progress report

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, U.; Auvinen, A.; Ziliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J.

    2006-02-01

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In an accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium can oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species it is of interest to know, how it is formed and how it behaves. In our experiments RuO2 is exposed to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. In this report, the experimental system for the ruthenium behaviour study is presented. Also preliminary results from experiments carried out during year 2005 are reported. In the experiments gaseous ruthenium oxides were produced in a furnace. Upon cooling RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed with plane filters from the gas stream. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution three experiment using radioactive tracer were carried out. (au)

  12. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents - Progress report

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, U.; Auvinen, A.; Ziliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)

    2006-02-15

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In an accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium can oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species it is of interest to know, how it is formed and how it behaves. In our experiments RuO2 is exposed to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. In this report, the experimental system for the ruthenium behaviour study is presented. Also preliminary results from experiments carried out during year 2005 are reported. In the experiments gaseous ruthenium oxides were produced in a furnace. Upon cooling RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed with plane filters from the gas stream. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution three experiment using radioactive tracer were carried out. (au)

  13. Containment Performance Evaluation of a Sodium Fire Event Due to Air Ingress into the Cover Gas Region of the Reactor Vessel in the PGSFR

    Ahn, Sang June; Chang, Won-Pyo; Kang, Seok Hun; Choi, Chi-Woong; Yoo, Jin; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Jae-Ho; Lee, Seung Won; Jeong, Taekyeong; Ha, Kwi-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Comparing with the light water reactor, sodium as a reactor coolant violently reacts with oxygen in the containment atmosphere. Due to this chemical reaction, heat generated from the combustion heat increases the temperature and pressure in the containment atmosphere. The structural integrity of the containment building which is a final radiological defense barrier is threaten. A sodium fire event in the containment due to air ingress into the cover gas region in the reactor vessel is classified as one of the design basis events in the PGSFR. This event comes from a leak or crack on the reactor upper closure header surface. It accompanys an event of the radiological fission products release to the inside the containment. In this paper, evaluation for the sodium fire and radiological influence due to air ingress into the cover gas region of the reactor vessel is described. To evaluate this event, the CONTAIN-LMR, MACCS-II and OR-IGEN-II codes are used. For the sodium pool fire event in the containment, the performance evaluation and radiological influence are carried out. In the thermal hydraulic aspects, the 1 cell containment yields the most conservative result. In this event, the maximum temperature and pressure in the containment are calculated 0.185 MPa, 280.0 .deg. C, respectively. The radiological dose at the EAB and LPZ are below the acceptance criteria specified in the 10CFR100

  14. Containment Performance Evaluation of a Sodium Fire Event Due to Air Ingress into the Cover Gas Region of the Reactor Vessel in the PGSFR

    Ahn, Sang June; Chang, Won-Pyo; Kang, Seok Hun; Choi, Chi-Woong; Yoo, Jin; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Jae-Ho; Lee, Seung Won; Jeong, Taekyeong; Ha, Kwi-Seok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Comparing with the light water reactor, sodium as a reactor coolant violently reacts with oxygen in the containment atmosphere. Due to this chemical reaction, heat generated from the combustion heat increases the temperature and pressure in the containment atmosphere. The structural integrity of the containment building which is a final radiological defense barrier is threaten. A sodium fire event in the containment due to air ingress into the cover gas region in the reactor vessel is classified as one of the design basis events in the PGSFR. This event comes from a leak or crack on the reactor upper closure header surface. It accompanys an event of the radiological fission products release to the inside the containment. In this paper, evaluation for the sodium fire and radiological influence due to air ingress into the cover gas region of the reactor vessel is described. To evaluate this event, the CONTAIN-LMR, MACCS-II and OR-IGEN-II codes are used. For the sodium pool fire event in the containment, the performance evaluation and radiological influence are carried out. In the thermal hydraulic aspects, the 1 cell containment yields the most conservative result. In this event, the maximum temperature and pressure in the containment are calculated 0.185 MPa, 280.0 .deg. C, respectively. The radiological dose at the EAB and LPZ are below the acceptance criteria specified in the 10CFR100.

  15. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    Sevilla, J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about ±2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  16. Response of fuel, fuel elements and gas cooled reactor cores under accidental air or water ingress conditions. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting held in Beijing, China, 25-27 October 1993

    NONE

    1995-01-01

    The meeting was convened by the IAEA on the recommendation of the IAEA`s International Working Group on Gas Cooled Reactors. It was attended by participants from China, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The meeting covered the following topics: experimental investigations of the effects of air and water ingress; predicted response of fuel, graphite and other reactor components; options for minimizing or mitigating the effects of air or water ingress. 19 papers were presented at the meeting. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs and tabs.

  17. Chloride ingress prediction

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...... of depth and time, when both the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient are allowed to vary in time. The model is presented in a companion paper....

  18. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  19. Oxidation kinetics of innovative carbon materials with respect to severe air ingress accidents in HTRs and graphite disposal or processing; Oxidationskinetik innovativer Kohlenstoffmaterialien hinsichtlich schwerer Lufteinbruchstoerfaelle in HTR's und Graphitentsorgung oder Aufbereitung

    Schloegel, Baerbel

    2010-07-01

    Currently future nuclear reactor concepts of the Fourth Generation (Gen IV) are under development. To some extend they apply with new, innovative materials developed just for this purpose. This thesis work aims at a concept of Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR) in the framework of the European project RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation). The concept named ANTARES (AREVA New Technology based on advanced gas-cooled Reactors for Energy Supply) was developed by AEVA NP. It is a helium cooled, graphite moderated modular reactor for electricity and hydrogen production, by providing the necessary process heat due to its high working temperature. Particular attention is given here to oxidation kinetics of newly developed carbon materials (NBG-17) with still unknown but needed information in context of severe air ingress accident in VHTR's. Special interest is paid to the Boudouard reaction, the oxidation of carbon by CO{sub 2}. In case of an air ingress accident, carbon dioxide is produced in the primary reaction of atmospheric oxygen with reflector graphite. From there CO{sub 2} could flow into the reactor core causing further damage by conversion into CO. The purpose of this thesis is to ascertain if and to what degree this could happen. First of all oxidation kinetic data of the Boudouard reaction with NBG-17 is determined by experiments in a thermo gravimetric facility. The measurements are evaluated and converted into a common formula and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood similar oxidation kinetic equation, as input for the computer code REACT/THERMIX. This code is then applied to analyse severe air ingress accidents for several air flow rates. The results are discussed for two accident situations, in which a certain graphite burn off is achieved. All cases show much more damage to the graphite bottom reflector than to the reactor core. Thus the bottom reflector will lose its structural integrity much earlier than the

  20. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    to meet the increasingly intricate demands of both advanced air quality models and more realistic and relevant policy scenarios.

  1. Analysis of helium purification system capability during water ingress accident in RDE

    Sriyono; Kusmastuti, Rahayu; Bakhri, Syaiful; Sunaryo, Geni Rina

    2018-02-01

    The water ingress accident caused by steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) in RDE (Experimental Power Reactor) must be anticipated. During the accident, steam from secondary system diffused and mixed with helium gas in the primary coolant. To avoid graphite corrosion in the core, steam will be removed by Helium purification system (HPS). There are two trains in HPS, first train for normal operation and the second for the regeneration and accident. The second train is responsible to clean the coolant during accident condition. The second train is equipped with additional component, i.e. water cooler, post accident blower, and water separator to remove this mixture gas. During water ingress, the water release from rupture tube is mixed with helium gas. The water cooler acts as a steam condenser, where the steam will be separated by water separator from the helium gas. This paper analyses capability of HPS during water ingress accident. The goal of the research is to determine the time consumed by HPS to remove the total amount of water ingress. The method used is modelling and simulation of the HPS by using ChemCAD software. The BDBA and DBA scenarios will be simulated. In BDBA scenario, up to 110 kg of water is assumed to infiltrate to primary coolant while DBA is up to 35 kg. By using ChemCAD simulation, the second train will purify steam ingress maximum in 0.5 hours. The HPS of RDE has a capability to anticipate the water ingress accident.

  2. Scenarios

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  3. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Hansen, Per Freiesleben; Coats, Alison M.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar is followed by electron probe microanalysis. The influence of several paste and exposure parameters on chloride ingress are examined (e.g., water-cement ratio, silica fume addition, exposure time, and temperature), The measurements...

  4. Pulmonic Ingressive Speech in Shetland English

    Sundkvist, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a study of pulmonic ingressive speech, a severely understudied phenomenon within varieties of English. While ingressive speech has been reported for several parts of the British Isles, New England, and eastern Canada, thus far Newfoundland appears to be the only locality where researchers have managed to provide substantial…

  5. Safety analysis results for cryostat ingress accidents in ITER

    Merrill, B.J.; Cadwallader, L.C.; Petti, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    Accidents involving the ingress of air or water into the cryostat of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) tokamak design have been analyzed with a modified version of the MELCOR code for the ITER Non-site Specific Safety Report (NSSR-1). The air ingress accident is the result of a postulated breach of the cryostat boundary into an adjoining room. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed air mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, but that the partial vacuum in the adjoining room must be accommodated in the building design. The water ingress accident is the result of a postulated magnet arc that results in melting of a Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) coolant pipe, discharging PHTS water and PHTS water activated corrosion products and HTO into the cryostat. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed water mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, that the cryostat pressure remains below design limits, and that the corrosion product and HTO releases are well within the ITER release limits

  6. Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project - Information Management System (WWIPIMS), South Africa

    Hild, S.; Sieste, M.; Barth, A.; Rudinskaya, J. [Beak Consultants GmbH, Freiberg (Germany); Croukamp, L.; Roos, M. [Council for Geoscience (CGS), Pretoria (South Africa)

    2006-07-01

    The Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project at the Council for Geoscience, South Africa (CGS) deals with an inventory, a risk assessment and the development of rehabilitation strategies for abandoned mining sites in the Witwatersrand Mining Basin. The main focus is the prevention of water ingress and to understand the future decanting scenario. An Information Management System consisting of both a relational database and an application for the Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project is established for accessing and managing all project-related data. This easy to use application makes the data available to all staff at the CGS via several modules as well as a GIS-component for accessing and querying spatial data. This will enable the scientists to derive further knowledge of the water flowing processes by directly using all of the existing up-to-date data. Many additional functions, such as the support for map printing on demand, extensive possibilities for inquiries, data import and export, diagrams and a GIS-viewer for spatial inquiries do complete the system. (orig.)

  7. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  8. Ingress of radioactive material into dwellings

    Roed, J.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1991-01-01

    People inside buildings will normally obtain some protection against airborne pollution originating in the outdoor air. This protection will be due to deposition indoors on floors, walls, ceilings and furniture, and to filtration during ingress, in cracks, crevices and pores in the building structure. A building will also give some protection against direct gamma radiation from outdoor deposits on the ground and external building surfaces. However, indoor deposits, while reducing air exposure, may add to the dose commitment from direct gamma radiation. Other subsidiary factors such as mechanical transport may need to be considered. We used test houses for finding factors by which outdoor air concentrations exceed those found indoors. Be-7 of cosmogenic origin and associated with natural aerosol has been used as a tracer, together with radionuclides dispersed in the atmosphere as a result of the Chernobyl accident. In addition, SF 6 tracer measurements have been used to measure air exchange rates. Novel experimental arrangements, to isolate the deposition process, were used. Attention has also been given to developing suitable tracers for monodisperse artificial aerosols and to means of detecting such aerosols. The use of these techniques in studying mechanical transport of particulate material is described. The indoor to outdoor airborne concentration ratios in a test house during the Chernobyl accident were found to be 0.25 for caesium, 0.4 for particulate iodine and 0.5 for beryllium-7. Indoor deposition velocities, for a range of radionuclides, ranged from 7 10-5 to 2 10-4 m s-1. Subsequently, aerosol deposition measurements were conducted in unfurnished, partly furnished and fully furnished houses, using Be-7 as a tracer. Measured deposition velocities ranged from 10-5 m s-1 for the unfurnished room to 3 10-5 m s-1 for the fully furnished room

  9. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  10. Googles Augmented-Reality-Game "Ingress"

    Karl H. Stingeder

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Das an das "Geocoaching"-Spielprinzip erinnernde Augmented-­Reality-Game "Ingress" ist auf allen mit Android-Betriebssystem ausgestatteten Smartphones spielbar. Das Alleinstellungsmerkmal des Spiels ist gleich­zeitig auch das beste Patent-Rezept für bzw. gegen notorisches "Couch-Potato-ing": Das Game-Design des "Draußenspiels" erfordert jedoch stets die physische Anwesenheit der SpielerInnen am realen Ort des Geschehens, meist touristisch attraktive Sehenswürdigkeiten und architektonisch markante Plätze. Sobald "Ingress" per App am Smart­phone gestartet wird, stehen Interaktionen und Machtverhältnisse auf dem Handy-Display im Dreh- und Angelpunkt des Geschehens. Die Spielgrafik ist auf das Wesentliche reduziert und erinnert an die Optik von Videospielen der 80er Jahre. "Ingress" im Allgemeinen sowie "Magnus13", die erste von Google organisierte Fan-Veranstaltung Österreichs mit mehreren Hundert TeilnehmerInnen und ist mit einer "digitalen Schnitzeljagd" vergleichbar: Gemeinsam ist der klassischen "Schnitzeljagd" und dem digitalen "Schere-Schein-Papier" Prinzip von "Ingress" die tragende Rolle des im Spiel entstehenden Gemeinschaftsgefühls, welche in einer hohen Langzeitmotivation mündet. Trotz aller Euphorie, ob des unkonventionellen Augmented-Reality-Spielkonzepts und des in Folge der sozialen Dynamik außergewöhnlichen Sucht­potentials, ist angesichts von Edward Snowden und vielfältiger NSA-Abhörmaßnahmen, eine gesunde Portion Skepsis angebracht: Welchen Zweck erfüllt "Ingress"? Gibt es ein verhülltes "Mittel zum Zweck"? Welche Gefahren bestehen mit einer systematischen Auswertung des umfangreichen, ortsrelevanten Daten-Sammelsuriums? "Ingress" verdeutlicht trotz aller Risiken den soziokulturellen Bedeutungswandel des digitalen Spiels: Spiele per se und das Spiel als soziale Interaktion sind aktuell dabei, alle Bereiche unseres Lebens zu erfassen.

  11. Ingress in Geography: Portals to Academic Success?

    Davis, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Niantic Labs has developed an augmented virtual reality mobile app game called Ingress in which agents must seek out and control locations for their designated factions. The app uses the Google Maps interface along with GPS to enhance a geocaching-like experience with elements of other classical games such as capture-the-flag. This study aims to…

  12. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

  13. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  14. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    N. Daskalakis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980 or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980, and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  15. Impacts of Changes of Indoor Air Pressure and Air Exchange Rate in Vapor Intrusion Scenarios.

    Shen, Rui; Suuberg, Eric M

    2016-02-01

    There has, in recent years, been increasing interest in understanding the transport processes of relevance in vapor intrusion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into buildings on contaminated sites. These studies have included fate and transport modeling. Most such models have simplified the prediction of indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations by employing a steady state assumption, which often results in difficulties in reconciling these results with field measurements. This paper focuses on two major factors that may be subject to significant transients in vapor intrusion situations, including the indoor air pressure and the air exchange rate in the subject building. A three-dimensional finite element model was employed with consideration of daily and seasonal variations in these factors. From the results, the variations of indoor air pressure and air exchange rate are seen to contribute to significant variations in indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations. Depending upon the assumptions regarding the variations in these parameters, the results are only sometimes consistent with the reports of several orders of magnitude in indoor air concentration variations from field studies. The results point to the need to examine more carefully the interplay of these factors in order to quantitatively understand the variations in potential indoor air exposures.

  16. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  17. Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

    Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey; Cabrall, Chris; Homola, Jeff; Callantine, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Within the Human Factors Division at NASA Ames Research Center the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) is developing advanced automation concepts that help to transform the National Airspace System into NextGen, the Next Generation Air Transportation System. High-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations are used as a means to investigate and develop roles, responsibilities, support tools, and requirements for human operators and automation. This paper describes the traffic scenario design process and strategies as used by AOL researchers. Details are presented on building scenarios for specific simulation objectives using various design strategies. A focus is set on creating scenarios based on recorded real world traffic for terminal-area simulations.

  18. Evaluation of pressure response in the Los Alamos controlled air incinerator during three incident scenarios

    Vavruska, J.S.; Elsberry, K.; Thompson, T.K.; Pendergrass, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Los Alamos Controlled Air Incinerator (CAI) is a system designed to accept radioactive mixed waste containing alpha-emitting radionuclides. A mathematical model was developed to predict the pressure response throughout the offgas treatment system of the CAI during three hypothetical incident scenarios. The scenarios examined included: (1) loss of burner flame and failure of the flame safeguard system with subsequent reignition of fuel gas in the primary chamber, (2) pyrolytic gas buildup from a waste package due to loss of induced draft and subsequent restoration of induced draft, and (3) accidental charging of propellant spray cans in a solid waste package to the primary chamber during a normal feed cycle. For each of the three scenarios, the finite element computer model was able to determine the transient pressure surge and decay response throughout the system. Of particular interest were the maximum absolute pressures attainable at critical points in the system as well as maximum differential pressures across the high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters. Modeling results indicated that all three of the scenarios resulted in maximum HEPA filter differential pressures well below the maximum allowable levels

  19. Finnish air traffic until 2025. Four scenarios; Suomen lentoliikenne vuoteen 2025 - neljae skenaariota

    Aalto, E.; Pollanen, M.; Mantynen, J.; Makela, T.; Rauhamaki, H. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland). Transport Research Centre Verne

    2012-07-01

    Air traffic is a very dynamic field of business. Its operating environment features multiple factors of change, which affect air traffic and its operators both in the short and in the long run. This study charts the significant factors in Finnish air traffic and creates four distinct scenarios for the future. These scenarios were produced on the basis of the currently available facts and are attempts to provide several alternatives for the future. The study's goal has been to produce a visionary depiction that helps one to visualise and understand the whole picture. The perspective chosen for consideration of the future is the year 2025. The study describes four scenarios differing clearly from each other. In the first, entitled Globaalista maailmasta blokkeihin (From a global world to blocs), states form clusters and regional co-operation takes precedence over the current global direction of development. The second, Eurooppa omalla reitillaeaen (Europe on its own way), depicts Europe ahead of the rest of the world in terms of environmental regulation for air traffic. Uudistuksilla talouskukoistukseen (Economic boom through reforms) is based on an optimistic economic outlook. In contrast, Oeljykriisistae taloustaantumaan (From oil crisis to recession), describes a world where economic growth has been forestalled by rising oil prices due to increasing scarcity. The study investigates passenger numbers, air traffic within Finland, the international route network, and the changes these display in the various scenarios. The estimates are designed to highlight the development trends affecting air traffic in different operating environments. Since Finland is a small country and set apart from the rest of Europe in a fashion similar to island states, air traffic is of major importance and cannot be efficiently replaced by other forms of traffic. In particular, the individual scenarios stress the impact of international interaction and economic development with regard

  20. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  1. Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

    Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

    2009-01-01

    In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO 2 , NO x , CH 4 , VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH 4 . While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO 2 , contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO x and SO 2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

  2. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  3. Chloride Ingress into Concrete under Water Pressure

    Lund, Mia Schou; Sander, Lotte Braad; Grelk, Bent

    2011-01-01

    The chloride ingress into concrete under water pressures of 100 kPa and 800 kPa have been investigated by experiments. The specimens were exposed to a 10% NaCl solution and water mixture. For the concrete having w/c = 0.35 the experimental results show the chloride diffusion coefficient at 800 k......Pa (~8 atm.) is 12 times greater than at 100 kPa (~1 atm.). For w/c = 0.45 and w/c = 0.55 the chloride diffusion coefficients are 7 and 3 times greater. This means that a change in pressure highly influences the chloride ingress into the concrete and thereby the life length models for concrete structures....

  4. Global Scenarios of Air Pollution until 2030: Combining Air Quality, Climate Change and Energy Access Policies

    Rao, S.; Dentener, F. J.; Klimont, Z.; Riahi, K.

    2011-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. This has led to the implementation of a number of air quality policies worldwide, with total air pollution control costs in 2005 estimated at US$195 billion. More than 80% of the world's population is still found to be exposed to PM2.5 concentrations exceeding WHO air quality guidelines and health impacts resulting from these exposures estimated at around 2-5% of the global disease burden. Key questions to answer are 1) How will pollutant emissions evolve in the future given developments in the energy system and how will energy and environmental policies influence such emission trends. 2) What implications will this have for resulting exposures and related health outcomes. In order to answer these questions, varying levels of stringency of air quality legislation are analyzed in combination with policies on universal access to clean cooking fuels and limiting global temperature change to 2°C in 2100. Bottom-up methodologies using energy emissions modeling are used to derive sector-based pollutant emission trajectories until 2030. Emissions are spatially downscaled and used in combination with a global transport chemistry model to derive ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Health impacts of these exposures are further estimated consistent with WHO data and methodology. The results indicate that currently planned air quality legislation combined with rising energy demand will be insufficient in controlling future emissions growth in developing countries. In order to achieve significant reductions in pollutant emissions of the order of more than 50% from 2005 levels and reduce exposures to levels consistent with WHO standards, it will be necessary to increase the stringency of such legislations and combine them with policies on energy access and climate change. Combined policies also result in reductions in air pollution control costs as compared to those associated

  5. ANALISIS EFEK KECELAKAAN WATER INGRESS TERHADAP REAKTIVITAS DOPPLER TERAS RGTT200K

    Zuhair Zuhair

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Dalam high temperature reactor, koefisien reaktivitas temperatur yang didesain negatif menjamin reaksi fisi dalam teras tetap berada di bawah kendali dan panas peluruhan tidak akan pernah melelehkan bahan bakar yang menyebabkan terlepasnya zat radioaktif ke lingkungan. Namun masuknya air (water ingress ke dalam teras reaktor akibat pecahnya tabung penukar panas generator uap, yang dikenal sebagai salah satu kecelakaan dasar desain, dapat mengintroduksi reaktivitas positif dengan potensi bahaya lainnya seperti korosi grafit dan kerusakan material struktur reflektor. Makalah ini akan menganalisis efek kecelakaan water ingress terhadap reaktivitas Doppler teras RGTT200K. Kapabilitas koefisien reaktivitas Doppler untuk mengkompensasi reaktivitas positif yang timbul selama kecelakaan water ingress akan diuji melalui serangkaian perhitungan dengan program MCNPX dan pustaka ENDF/B-VII untuk perubahan temperatur bahan bakar dari 800K hingga 1800K. Tiga opsi kernel bahan bakar UO2, ThO2/UO2 dan PuO2 dengan tiga model kisi bahan bakar pebble di teras reaktor diterapkan untuk kondisi water ingress dengan densitas air dari 0 hingga 1.000 kg/m3. Hasil perhitungan memperlihatkan koefisien reaktivitas Doppler tetap negatif untuk seluruh opsi bahan bakar yang dipertimbangkan bahkan untuk posibilitas water ingress yang besar. Efek water ingress lebih kuat pada model kisi dengan fraksi packing lebih rendah karena lebih banyak volume yang tersedia untuk air yang memasuki teras reaktor. Efek water ingress juga lebih kuat di teras uranium dibandingkan teras thorium dan plutonium sebagai konsekuensi dari fenomena Doppler dimana absorpsi neutron di daerah resonansi 238U lebih besar daripada 232Th dan 240Pu. Secara keseluruhan dapat disimpulkan bahwa, koefisien Doppler teras RGTT200K mampu mengkompensasi insersi reaktivitas yang diintroduksi oleh kecelakaan water ingress. Teras RGTT200K dengan bahan bakar UO2, ThO2/UO2 dan PuO2 dapat mempertahankan fitur keselamatan

  6. The study on water ingress mass in the steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture accident of modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    Wang Yan; Shi Lei; Li Fu; Zheng Yanhua

    2012-01-01

    The steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture (SGTR) accident is an important and particular accident which will result in water ingress to the primary loop of reactor. Water ingress will result in chemical reaction of graphite fuel and structure with water, which may cause overpressure due to generation of explosive gaseous in large quantity. The study on the water ingress accident is significant for the verification of the inherent characteristics of high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The previous research shows that the amount of water ingress mass is the dominant key factor on the severity of the accident consequence. The 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), which is the first modular pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactor in China designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, is selected to be analyzed in this paper. The different DBA accident scenarios of double-ended break of single heat-exchange tube are simulated respectively by the thermal-hydraulic analysis code RETRAN-02. The results show the water ingress mass through the broken heat-exchange tube is related to the break location. The amount of water ingress mass is affected obviously by the capacity of the emptier system. With the balance of safety and economical efficiency, the amount of water ingress mass from the secondary side of steam generator into the primary coolant loop will be reduced by increasing properly the diameter of the draining lines. (authors)

  7. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  8. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  9. Oxygen ingress : a practical look at typical ingress mechanisms and the consequences

    Lerbscher, J. [Baker Hughes Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada); Marlowe, D. [ChevronTexaco, Kenai, AK (United States); Thomas, J. [Baker Hughes, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper discussed methods of identifying and treating oxygen corrosion in hydrocarbon processing facilities. Oxygen corrosion is often misdiagnosed during the course of corrosion failure analyses. Measures to find the source of ingress are only typically initiated when test results demonstrate significant sources of oxygen within processing systems. The iron oxides produced as byproducts from oxygen reactions increase pitting and corrosion rates, and most of the chemical inhibitors used in oil and gas processing are not designed to work in the presence of oxygen. Oxygen reacts with hydrogen sulfide (H{sub 2}S) to form elemental sulfur. The high pressures used in processing facilities enhance the thermodynamic and kinetic tendencies of the chemical reactions with oxygen. Sulfur particles are known to enhance corrosion rates by an order of magnitude, and can also cause fouling and flow restrictions. Oxygen ingress can occur via vapor recovery unit, vacuum excursions, and liquid storage tanks. Symptoms that indicate oxygen ingress can include the presence of iron compounds in solid samples; the presence of sulfur; fouling of wet gas transmission lines; the presence of ionic polysulfides in the aqueous phase; higher corrosion rates than predicted; and the degradation of glycols in dehydration units. Portable gas chromatography, oxygen detection vials, and X-ray diffraction analysis techniques are used to detect oxygen ingress. Real time oxygen monitors are also connected to SCADA systems. It was concluded that oxygen testing should be conducted periodically in order to identify and eliminate its source of entry. A technical summary of corrosive species was included. 1 tab., 15 figs.

  10. Modeling moisture ingress through simplified concrete crack geometries

    Pease, Bradley Justin; Michel, Alexander; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2011-01-01

    , considered to have two parts; 1) a coalesced crack length which behaves as a free-surface for moisture ingress, and 2) an isolated microcracking length which resists ingress similarly to the bulk material. Transport model results are compared to experimental results from steel fibre reinforced concrete wedge......This paper introduces a numerical model for ingress in cracked steel fibre reinforced concrete. Details of a simplified crack are preset in the model’s geometry using the cracked hinge model (CHM). The total crack length estimated using the CHM was, based on earlier work on conventional concrete...... on moisture ingress. Results from the transport model indicate the length of the isolated microcracks was approximately 19 mm for the investigated concrete composition....

  11. Chloride ingress profiles measured by electron probe micro analysis

    Jensen, Ole mejlhede; Coats, Alison M.; Glasser, Fred P.

    1996-01-01

    Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA is demonst......Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA...... is demonstated to determine chloride ingress in cement paste on a micrometer scale. Potential chloride ingress routes such as cracks or the paste-aggregate interface may also be characterized by EPMA. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd...

  12. Chloride Ingress in Concrete Cracks under Cyclic Loading

    Küter, André; Geiker, Mette Rica; Olesen, John Forbes

    2005-01-01

    was similar for both sets and the maximum crack width was kept constant throughout the exposure period by means of precracking and an external prestressed reinforcement. Chloride profiles after 40 days revealed a considerable increase in ingress towards the crack tip in contrast to data from the literature....... Preliminary investigations have been undertaken to quantify the effect of dynamic load application on the chloride ingress into concrete cracks. Specimens were designed allowing ingress of a chloride solution into a single crack of a saturated unreinforced mortar beam. One set of specimens was subjected...... to a load frequency of ten applications per minute and a second set to one application per hour simulating static cracks, however limiting the ingress hampering effects of autogenous healing and a possible dense precipitation on the crack faces. The averaged chloride exposure interval of the crack faces...

  13. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  14. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  15. Screening of Low Clinker Binders, Compressive Strength and Chloride Ingress

    Geiker, Mette Rica; De Weerdt, Klaartje; Garzón, Sergio Ferreiro

    2017-01-01

    This paper reports an initial screening of potential new binders for concrete with reduced CO2-emission. Mortars cured saturated for 90 days are compared with regard to a) compressive strength of mortars with similar water-to-binder ratio, and b) chloride ingress in similar design strength mortar...... compromising the 90 days compressive strength and resistance to chloride ingress in marine exposure by using selected alternative binders....

  16. Mitigation of corrosion product ingress into SG's

    Han, S.H.

    1988-01-01

    Design and operation experiences to mitigate corrosion product ingress into SGs in Korea nuclear power plants are briefly reviewed. Maintaining the feedwater pH above 9.6 with morpholine seems to contribute significantly to reduction of iron transport to SGs. Measured iron transport rates were 4.8 g/hr/100 MWe at pH 9.8 and 2.8 g/hr/100 MWe at 9.3, respectively. Removal of corrosion products through SG blowdown is very limited. Its removal efficiency at the higher pH plant was in the neighborhood of 10 %. In one of the Korea Nuclear Units, a large amount of sludge piles were found in the middle of tube bundles especially on the cold leg side. Damaged tubes were identified by the multi-frequency eddy current tests and plugged later during the refueling period. Intermittent blowdown-rate increase was tried to enhance ionic impurity removal through SG blowdown. Even though it was not effective against Na, removal other impurity was improved, resulting in prolonged condensate polisher operation periods by 1 - 2 days. Two-bed polisher design, a cation bed followed by a mixed bed, was chosen for future PWR plants to enhance corrosion product filtering capability of the polishers. Condensate pump discharge polishing and divided hot well polishing methods are currently in consideration. (Nogami, K.)

  17. Prime Example Ingress Reframing the Pervasive Game Design Framework (PGDF

    Heinrich Söbke

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The growing availability of mobile communication infrastructure over the last decade has contributed significantly to the maturity of Pervasive Gaming. The massive success of games such as Ingress and Pokémon Go made pervasive gaming a viable option for transforming learning. By its adaptability to location and context, pervasive technology is a valuable support for the design of engaging learning experiences. Despite profound examples of pervasive gaming as learning tool, there is still a lack of reliable methodologies to construct purposeful pervasive learning experiences. The Pervasive Game Design Framework (PGDF is intended to fill this gap. In this article, we present the PGDF using the example of Ingress. Ingress is a prominent pervasive game, as it has received huge attention since its appearance in 2012. A large community of players and third-party-tool suppliers has created a rich set of experiences since then. In this research, we examine Ingress according to PGDF’s categories based on a survey among long-term Ingress players (N=133. Founded on this analysis we identify three main benefits for Ingress players. Furthermore, we discuss the consequences of these findings on the PGDF. Summarizing, this work strengthens the applicability of the PGDF, in order to enable the construction of enriched pervasive learning experiences.

  18. MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY

    This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in ele...

  19. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  20. Air quality impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Texas: evaluating three battery charging scenarios

    Thompson, Tammy M; King, Carey W; Webber, Michael E; Allen, David T

    2011-01-01

    The air quality impacts of replacing approximately 20% of the gasoline-powered light duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with electric VMT by the year 2018 were examined for four major cities in Texas: Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging was assumed to occur on the electric grid controlled by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and three charging scenarios were examined: nighttime charging, charging to maximize battery life, and charging to maximize driver convenience. A subset of electricity generating units (EGUs) in Texas that were found to contribute the majority of the electricity generation needed to charge PHEVs at the times of day associated with each scenario was modeled using a regional photochemical model (CAMx). The net impacts of the PHEVs on the emissions of precursors to the formation of ozone included an increase in NO x emissions from EGUs during times of day when the vehicle is charging, and a decrease in NO x from mobile emissions. The changes in maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations and average exposure potential at twelve air quality monitors in Texas were predicted on the basis of these changes in NO x emissions. For all scenarios, at all monitors, the impact of changes in vehicular emissions, rather than EGU emissions, dominated the ozone impact. In general, PHEVs lead to an increase in ozone during nighttime hours (due to decreased scavenging from both vehicles and EGU stacks) and a decrease in ozone during daytime hours. A few monitors showed a larger increase in ozone for the convenience charging scenario versus the other two scenarios. Additionally, cumulative ozone exposure results indicate that nighttime charging is most likely to reduce a measure of ozone exposure potential versus the other two scenarios.

  1. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  2. Design for air-to-air refuelling operations; new passenger and tanker aircraft design for AAR scenarios

    Li, M.O.

    2014-01-01

    Air-to-air refuelling is a way to improve fuel efficiency of the overall transport system without waiting for the improvement of basic aviation technology. To take full advantage of such an operation, both passenger aircraft and tanker aircraft (which deliver required fuel to the passenger aircraft

  3. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO 2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO 2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO 2 and NO x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO 2 control scenario, and the 2010 NO x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.

  4. Modeled effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution, health and societal costs

    Bønløkke, Jakob Hjort; Holst, Gitte Juel; Sigsgaard, Torben

    2015-01-01

    scenario in Europe would have substantial benefits on health through improvements in air pollution. Health effects and societal cost savings may significantly counterbalance investment costs and should be taken into account when evaluating strategies for mitigation of global warming....... with extensions. Mean annual changes in the main air pollutants were derived for each country. World Health Organization (WHO) and European Union (EU) data on populations and on impacts of pollutants were used to derive health effects and costs. Effects on indoor air quality were not assessed. Results: Projected...... 78678 LY in Europe. A total of 7173 cases of persistent chronic bronchitis could be avoided annually. Several other health outcomes improved similarly. The saved societal costs totaled 6.64 billion € annually. Conclusions: In addition to carbon emission reductions, an improved building insulation...

  5. The effects of applying silicon carbide coating on core reactivity of pebble-bed HTR in water ingress accident

    Zuhair, S.; Setiadipura, Topan [National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia, Serpong Tagerang Selatan (Indonesia). Center for Nuclear Reactor Technology and Safety; Su' ud, Zaki [Bandung Institute of Technology (Indonesia). Dept. of Physics

    2017-03-15

    Graphite is used as the moderator, fuel barrier material, and core structure in High Temperature Reactors (HTRs). However, despite its good thermal and mechanical properties below the radiation and high temperatures, it cannot avoid corrosion as a consequence of an accident of water/air ingress. Degradation of graphite as a main HTR material and the formation of dangerous CO gas is a serious problem in HTR safety. One of the several steps that can be adopted to avoid or prevent the corrosion of graphite by the water/air ingress is the application of a thin layer of silicon carbide (SiC) on the surface of the fuel element. This study investigates the effect of applying SiC coating on the fuel surfaces of pebble-bed HTR in water ingress accident from the reactivity points of view. A series of reactivity calculations were done with the Monte Carlo transport code MCNPX and continuous energy nuclear data library ENDF/B-VII at temperature of 1200 K. Three options of UO{sub 2}, PuO{sub 2}, and ThO{sub 2}/UO{sub 2} fuel kernel were considered to obtain the inter comparison of the core reactivity of pebble-bed HTR in conditions of water/air ingress accident. The calculation results indicated that the UO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR reactivity was slightly reduced and relatively more decreased when the thickness of the SiC coating increased. The reactivity characteristic of ThO{sub 2}/UO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR showed a similar trend to that of UO{sub 2}, but did not show reactivity peak caused by water ingress. In contrast with UO{sub 2}- and ThO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR, although the reactivity of PuO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR was the lowest, its characteristics showed a very high reactivity peak (0.33 Δk/k) and this introduction of positive reactivity is difficult to control. SiC coating on the surface of the plutonium fuel pebble has no significant impact. From the comparison between reactivity characteristics of uranium, thorium and plutonium cores with 0

  6. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  7. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    Hendriks, C.; Forsell, N.; Kiesewetter, G.; Schaap, M.; Schöpp, W.

    2016-01-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly

  8. Supply Ventilation and Prevention of Carbon Monoxide (II) Ingress into Building Premises

    Litvinova, N. A.

    2017-11-01

    The article contains the relationships of carbon monoxide (II) concentration versus height-above-ground near buildings derived based on results of studies. The results of studies are crucial in preventing external pollutants ingress into a ventilation system. Being generated by external emission sources, such as motor vehicles and city heating plants, carbon monoxide (II) enters the premises during operation of a supply ventilation system. Fresh air nomographic charts were drawn to select the height of a fresh air intake into the ventilation system. Nomographic charts take into account external sources. The selected emission sources are located at various levels above ground relative to the building. The recommendations allow designing supply ventilation taking into account the quality of ambient air through the whole building height.

  9. Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality and Population Exposure in Urban Planning Scenarios

    Lars Gidhagen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We employ a nested system of global and regional climate models, linked to regional and urban air quality chemical transport models utilizing detailed inventories of present and future emissions, to study the relative impact of climate change and changing air pollutant emissions on air quality and population exposure in Stockholm, Sweden. We show that climate change only marginally affects air quality over the 20-year period studied. An exposure assessment reveals that the population of Stockholm can expect considerably lower NO2 exposure in the future, mainly due to reduced local NOx emissions. Ozone exposure will decrease only slightly, due to a combination of increased concentrations in the city centre and decreasing concentrations in the suburban areas. The increase in ozone concentration is a consequence of decreased local NOx emissions, which reduces the titration of the long-range transported ozone. Finally, we evaluate the consequences of a planned road transit project on future air quality in Stockholm. The construction of a very large bypass road (including one of the largest motorway road tunnels in Europe will only marginally influence total population exposure, this since the improved air quality in the city centre will be complemented by deteriorated air quality in suburban, residential areas.

  10. Fission product release by fuel oxidation after water ingress

    Schreiber.

    1990-01-01

    On the basis of data obtained by a literature search, a computer code has been established for the calculation of the degree of oxidation of the fuel in the damaged fuel particles, and hence of the fission product release as a function of the time period of steam ingress. (orig.) [de

  11. French gas cooled reactor experience with moisture ingress

    Bastien, D.; Brie, M.

    1995-01-01

    During the history of operation of six gas cooled reactors in France, some experience has been gained with accidental water ingress into the primary system. This occurred as a result of leaks in steam generators. This paper describes the cause of the leaks, and the resulting consequences. (author). 2 refs, 8 figs

  12. Probabilistic Models and Computational Methods for Chloride Ingress in Concrete

    Engelund, S.

    Within the last decades it has been recognized that reinforced concrete structures are subject to a number of destructive mechanisms which might affect the structure in such a way that it is not able to fulfil its purpose efficiently. The present report focuses on chloride ingress and chloride...

  13. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  14. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  15. Indoor air quality scenario in India-An outline of household fuel combustion

    Rohra, Himanshi; Taneja, Ajay

    2016-03-01

    Most of the research around the world has been on outdoor air pollution, but in India we have a more severe problem of Indoor Air Pollution (IAP). The foremost factor cited for is burning of fossil fuels for cooking. Among the 70% of the country's rural population, about 80% households rely on biomass fuel making India to top the list of countries with largest population lacking access to cleaner fuel for cooking. 4 million deaths and 5% disability-adjusted life-years is an upshot of exposure to IAP from unhealthy cooking making it globally the most critical environmental risk factor. India alone bears the highest burden (28% needless deaths) among developing countries. Moreover, about ¼ of ambient PM2.5 in the country comes from household cookfuels. These considerations have prompted the discussion of the present knowledge on the disastrous health effects of pollutants emitted by biomass combustion in India. Additionally, Particulate Matter as an indoor air pollutant is highlighted with main focus on its spatial temporal variation and some recent Indian studies are further explored. As there are no specific norms for IAP in India, urgent need has arisen for implementing the strategies to create public awareness. Moreover improvement in ventilation and modification in the pattern of fuel will also contribute to eradicate this national health issue.

  16. Air temperature changes in Colombia under a doubled carbon dioxide scenario

    Molina Lizcano, Alicia; Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Vega Rodriguez, Emel Enrique; Martinez Collantes, Jorge; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this study contributes to obtain future scenarios related to climate change to Colombia. The methodology used is statistical down scaling to 24 climatic regions. This method finds the relationships between simulated atmospheric variables (gridded data) by the general circulation model CCM3 (version 3) and surface temperature historic data to each climatic region. The statistical alternative used is canonical correlation analysis. This technique has been applied to some climate change studies. The statistical down scaling uses two data periods, calibration (1969 to 1990) and validation (1991 to 1998). The relationships are obtained with calibration data, and then we estimate temperature values to each station with the validation data. The results are applied to simulated data with duplicated CO 2 assumption in order to estimate surface temperature projections

  17. Climate, air quality and human health benefits of various solar photovoltaic deployment scenarios in China in 2030

    Yang, Junnan; Li, Xiaoyuan; Peng, Wei; Wagner, Fabian; Mauzerall, Denise L.

    2018-06-01

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation can greatly reduce both air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuel electricity generation. The Chinese government plans to greatly scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, different PV development pathways will influence the range of air quality and climate benefits. Benefits depend on how much electricity generated from PV is integrated into power grids and the type of power plant displaced. Using a coal-intensive power sector projection as the base case, we estimate the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various 2030 PV deployment scenarios. We use the 2030 government goal of 400 GW installed capacity but vary the location of PV installation and the extent of inter-provincial PV electricity transmission. We find that deploying distributed PV in the east with inter-provincial transmission maximizes potential CO2 reductions and air quality-related health benefits (4.2% and 1.2% decrease in national total CO2 emissions and air pollution-related premature deaths compared to the base case, respectively). Deployment in the east with inter-provincial transmission results in the largest benefits because it maximizes displacement of the dirtiest coal-fired power plants and minimizes PV curtailment, which is more likely to occur without inter-provincial transmission. We further find that the maximum co-benefits achieved with deploying PV in the east and enabling inter-provincial transmission are robust under various maximum PV penetration levels in both provincial and regional grids. We find large potential benefits of policies that encourage distributed PV deployment and facilitate inter-provincial PV electricity transmission in China.

  18. Prediction of chloride ingress and binding in cement paste

    Geiker, Mette Rica; Nielsen, Erik Pram; Herforth, Duncan

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes recent work on an analytical model for predicting the ingress rate of chlorides in cement-based materials. An integral part of this is a thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement. The model’s ability to predict chloride binding...... in Portland cement pastes at any content of chloride, alkalis, sulfates and carbonate was verified experimentally and found to be equally valid when applied to other data in the literature. The thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement was introduced into an existing...... Finite Difference Model for the ingress of chlorides into concrete which takes into account its multi-component nature. The “composite theory” was then used to predict the diffusivity of each ion based on the phase assemblage present in the hydrated Portland cement paste. Agreement was found between...

  19. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Larson, L G; Palsson, A [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1998-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  20. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  1. Deuterium ingress at rolled joints in Embalse nuclear power plant

    Ramos Nervi, J. E.; Schroeter, F.

    2013-01-01

    Deuterium ingress model at the Rolled Joint has been extensively used for CANDU Nuclear Power Plants Operators in the Life Management of the Pressure Tubes. The importance of understanding the model is vital to avoid delayed hydride cracking at the Rolled Joint. This work reports the first step on develop the model presented on literature to be used in Argentinean CANDU 6, Embalse Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  2. Chloride Ingress in Chemically Activated Calcined Clay-Based Cement

    Joseph Mwiti Marangu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Chloride-laden environments pose serious durability concerns in cement based materials. This paper presents the findings of chloride ingress in chemically activated calcined Clay-Ordinary Portland Cement blended mortars. Results are also presented for compressive strength development and porosity tests. Sampled clays were incinerated at a temperature of 800°C for 4 hours. The resultant calcined clay was blended with Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC at replacement level of 35% by mass of OPC to make test cement labeled PCC35. Mortar prisms measuring 40 mm × 40 mm × 160 mm were cast using PCC35 with 0.5 M Na2SO4 solution as a chemical activator instead of water. Compressive strength was determined at 28th day of curing. As a control, OPC, Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC, and PCC35 were similarly investigated without use of activator. After the 28th day of curing, mortar specimens were subjected to accelerated chloride ingress, porosity, compressive strength tests, and chloride profiling. Subsequently, apparent diffusion coefficients (Dapp were estimated from solutions to Fick’s second law of diffusion. Compressive strength increased after exposure to the chloride rich media in all cement categories. Chemically activated PCC35 exhibited higher compressive strength compared to nonactivated PCC35. However, chemically activated PCC35 had the least gain in compressive strength, lower porosity, and lower chloride ingress in terms of Dapp, compared to OPC, PPC, and nonactivated PCC35.

  3. Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health Benefits of Various Solar Photovoltaic Development Scenarios in China in 2030

    Yang, J.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Wagner, F.; Li, X.

    2016-12-01

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology can greatly reduce both air pollution and GHG emissions from the power sector. The Chinese government has plans to scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, there is little analysis of how deployment strategies will influence the range of benefits. Here we conduct the first integrated assessment study that quantifies the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various solar PV development strategies in 2030 China. Our results indicate that both the location of PV deployment, which coal power plants are replaced, and the extent of inter-provincial transmission greatly influence the co-benefits. We compare CO2 and PM2.5 reductions from two PV installation scenarios both with the 2030 government target of 400 GW national installed capacity. First, we assume all solar PV is utilized within the province in which it is generated and that it can not exceed 30% of total provincial electricity generation. We find that deploying more solar PV in locations near load centers via distributed PV systems has larger benefits and could lead to approximately 20,500 (between 8000 - 32,400, high and low bounds) annual avoided premature deaths, 15% more than building utility-scale solar PV plants in the sunny, yet sparsely populated northwest. The difference occurs because in the northwest a lower population and cleaner air leads to smaller reductions in air pollution related premature mortalities. Also greater potential for PV curtailment exists in the west. In terms of CO2 reduction, deploying PV near load centers leads to 12% greater reductions in CO2 emissions from the power sector - approximately 5% of China's total CO2 emission in 2030. Second, we enable inter-provincial transmission of PV electricity within each of China's six regional grids which allows greater use of abundant sunlight in the northwest. Our results for 2030 show that by expanding to the regional grid, curtailment rates in the northwest

  4. Analysis on blow-down transient in water ingress accident of high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    Wang, Yan; Zheng, Yanhua; Li, Fu; Shi, Lei

    2014-01-01

    Water ingress into the primary circuit is generally recognized as one of the severe accidents with potential hazard to the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor, which will cause a positive reactivity introduction with the increase of steam density in reactor core to enhance neutron slowing-down, also the chemical corrosion of graphite fuel elements and the damage of reflector structure material. The increase of the primary pressure may result in the opening of the safety valves, consequently leading the release of radioactive isotopes and flammable water gas. The research on water ingress transient is significant for the verification of inherent safety characteristics of high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, is exampled to be analyzed in this paper. The design basis accident (DBA) scenarios of double-ended guillotine break of single heat-exchange tube (steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture) are simulated by the thermal-hydraulic analysis code, and some key concerns which are relative to the amount of water into the reactor core during the blow-down transient are analyzed in detail. The results show that both of water mass and steam ratio of the fluid spouting from the broken heat-exchange tube are affected by break location, which will increase obviously with the broken location closing to the outlet of the heat-exchange tube. The double-ended guillotine rupture at the outlet of the heat-exchange will result more steam penetrates into the reactor core in the design basis accident of water ingress. The mass of water ingress will also be affected by the draining system. It is concluded that, with reasonable optimization on design to balance safety and economy, the total mass of water ingress into the primary circuit of reactor could be limited effectively to meet the safety requirements, and the pollution of

  5. Degradation of fly ash concrete under the coupled effect of carbonation and chloride aerosol ingress

    Liu, Jun; Qiu, Qiwen; Chen, Xiaochi; Wang, Xiaodong; Xing, Feng; Han, Ningxu; He, Yijian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Carbonation affects the chloride profile in concrete under chloride aerosol attack. • The chloride binding capacity can be reduced by the presence of carbonation. • Carbonation increases the rate of chloride diffusion for chloride aerosol ingress. • Chloride aerosol ingress reduces the carbonation depth and increases the pH value. • The use of fly ash in concrete enhances the resistance of chloride aerosol ingress. - Abstract: This paper presents an experimental investigation regarding the coupled effect of carbonation and chloride aerosol ingress on the durability performance of fly ash concrete. Test results demonstrate that carbonation significantly affects the chloride ingress profile, reduces the chloride binding capacity, and accelerates the rate of chloride ion diffusion. On the other hand, the carbonation rate of fly ash concrete is reduced by the presence of chlorides aerosol. The interaction nature between concrete carbonation and chloride aerosol ingress is also demonstrated by the microscopic analysis results obtained from scanning electron microscope and mercury intrusion porosimetry.

  6. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  7. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    Staliulionis, Zygimantas; Jabbaribehnam, Mirmasoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2016-01-01

    loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based......The number of electronics used in outdoor environment is constantly growing. The humidity causes about 19 % of all electronics failures and, especially, moisture increases these problems due to the ongoing process of miniaturization and lower power consumption of electronic components. Moisture...

  8. Reducing the ingress of urban noise through natural ventilation openings.

    Oldham, D J; de Salis, M H; Sharples, S

    2004-01-01

    For buildings in busy urban areas affected by high levels of road traffic noise the potential to use natural ventilation can be limited by excessive noise entering through ventilation openings. This paper is concerned with techniques to reduce noise ingress into naturally ventilated buildings while minimizing airflow path resistance. A combined experimental and theoretical approach to the interaction of airflow and sound transmission through ventilators for natural ventilation applications is described. A key element of the investigation has been the development of testing facilities capable of measuring the airflow and sound transmission losses for a range of ventilation noise control strategies. It is demonstrated that a combination of sound reduction mechanisms -- one covering low frequency sound and another covering high frequency sound -- is required to attenuate effectively noise from typical urban sources. A method is proposed for quantifying the acoustic performance of different strategies to enable comparisons and informed decisions to be made leading to the possibility of a design methodology for optimizing the ventilation and acoustic performance of different strategies. The need for employing techniques for combating low frequency sound in tandem with techniques for reducing high frequency sound in reducing the ingress of noise from urban sources such as road traffic to acceptable levels is demonstrated. A technique is proposed for enabling the acoustic and airflow performance of apertures for natural ventilation systems to be designed simultaneously.

  9. Water Ingress Testing of the Turbula Jar and U-233 Lead Pig Containers

    Reeves, Kirk Patrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Karns, Tristan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Paul Herrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-02

    Understanding the water ingress behavior of containers used at the TA-55 Plutonium Facility has significant implications for criticality safety. The purpose of this report is to document the water ingress behavior of the Turbula Jar with Bakelite lid and Viton gaskets (Turbula Jar) used in oxide blending operations and the U-233 lead pig container used to store and transport U-233 material. The technical basis for water resistant containers at TA-55 is described in LA-UR-15-22781, “Water Resistant Container Technical Basis Document for the TA-55 Criticality Safety Program.” Testing of the water ingress behavior of various containers is described in LA-CP-13-00695, “Water Penetration Tests on the Filters of Hagan and SAVY Containers,” LA-UR-15-23121, “Water Ingress into Crimped Convenience Containers under Flooding Conditions,” and in LA-UR- 16-2411, “Water Ingress Testing for TA-55 Containers.” Water ingress criteria are defined in TA55-AP-522 “TA-55 Criticality Safety Program”, and in PA-RD-01009 “TA55 Criticality Safety Requirements.” The water ingress criteria for submersion is no more than 50 ml of water ingress at a 6” water column height for a period of 2 hours.

  10. Non-destructive evaluation of water ingress in photovoltaic modules

    Bora, Mihail; Kotovsky, Jack

    2017-03-07

    Systems and techniques for non-destructive evaluation of water ingress in photovoltaic modules include and/or are configured to illuminate a photovoltaic module comprising a photovoltaic cell and an encapsulant with at least one beam of light having a wavelength in a range from about 1400 nm to about 2700 nm; capture one or more images of the illuminated photovoltaic module, each image relating to a water content of the photovoltaic module; and determine a water content of the photovoltaic module based on the one or more images. Systems preferably include one or more of a light source, a moving mirror, a focusing lens, a beam splitter, a stationary mirror, an objective lens and an imaging module.

  11. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    Staliulionis, Ž.; Jabbari, M.; Hattel, J. H.

    2016-01-01

    The number of electronics used in outdoor environment is constantly growing. The humidity causes about 19 % of all electronics failures and, especially, moisture increases these problems due to the ongoing process of miniaturization and lower power consumption of electronic components. Moisture loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based on a 1D quasi-steady state (QSS) approximation for Fick’s second law. This QSS approach is also described with an electrical analogy which gives a fast tool in modelling of the moisture response. The same QSS method is applied to ambient water vapour variations. The obtained results are compared to an analytical solution and very good agreement is found.

  12. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  13. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    K. Markakis; M. Valari; A. Colette; O. Sanchez; O. Perrussel; C. Honore; R. Vautard; Z. Klimont; S. Rao

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed bas...

  14. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  15. Plating end fittings to reduce hydrogen ingress at rolled joints in CANDU reactors

    White, A.J.; Urbanic, V.F.; Bahurmuz, A.A.; Clendening, W.R.; Joynes, R.; McDougall, G.M.; Skinner, B.C.; Venkatapathi, S.

    1993-10-01

    Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes in CANDU nuclear reactors absorb hydrogen at a low rate from the primary heat transport water circulated through the tubes. Extra hydrogen is picked up at the rolled joints that connect the pressure tubes to out-of-core steel piping. This enhanced ingress may contribute to pressure-tube cracking at incorrectly assembled joints. The risk of pressure-tube failure has been decreased by ensuring correct joint assembly, and could be further decreased by reducing hydrogen ingress at rolled joints. This paper reviews progress toward using plated end fittings to reduce rolled-joint hydrogen ingress

  16. The transgressive-regressive cycle of the Romualdo Formation (Araripe Basin): Sedimentary archive of the Early Cretaceous marine ingression in the interior of Northeast Brazil

    Custódio, Michele Andriolli; Quaglio, Fernanda; Warren, Lucas Veríssimo; Simões, Marcello Guimarães; Fürsich, Franz Theodor; Perinotto, José Alexandre J.; Assine, Mario Luis

    2017-08-01

    Geologic events related to the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean deeply influenced the sedimentary record of the Araripe Basin. As consequence, upper stratigraphic units of the basin record a marine ingression in northeastern Brazil during the late Aptian. The timing and stratigraphic architecture of these units are crucial to understand the paleogeography of Gondwana and how the proto-Atlantic Ocean reached interior NE Brazil during the early Cretaceous. This marine ingression is recorded in the Araripe Basin as the Romualdo Formation, characterized by a transgressive-regressive cycle bounded by two regional unconformities. In the eastern part of the basin, the Romualdo depositional sequence comprises coastal alluvial and tide-dominated deposits followed by marine transgressive facies characterized by two fossil-rich intervals: a lower interval of black shales with fossil-rich carbonate concretions (Konservat-Lagerstätten) and an upper level with mollusk-dominated shell beds and shelly limestones. Following the marine ingression, an incomplete regressive succession of marginal-marine facies records the return of continental environments to the basin. The stratigraphic framework based on the correlation of several sections defines a transgressive-regressive cycle with depositional dip towards southeast, decreasing in thickness towards northwest, and with source areas located at the northern side of the basin. The facies-cycle wedge-geometry, together with paleocurrent data, indicates a coastal onlap towards NNW. Therefore, contrary to several paleogeographic scenarios previously proposed, the marine ingression would have reached the western parts of the Araripe Basin from the SSE.

  17. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar measured by Electron Probe Micro Analysis

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

    1998-01-01

    is an important basis for designing the durability of concrete structures. As an example the Danish Great Belt link is designed to have 100 years durability based on calculation of chloride ingress.During the last 15 years the types of concrete used in practice have changed substantially. Due to plasticizers......Chloride ingress is a common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures. Concrete may be exposed to chloride by sea water or deicing salts. The chloride initiates corrosion of the reinforcement which through expansion disrupts the concrete. Modelling the chloride ingress...... and mineral additives concretes with higher strengths and reduced permeability are produced. Recently it has become clear that traditional chloride ingress models do not apply to modern concretes. Actually, the life time model used for the Danish Great Belt link has shown up to be based on wrong assumptions...

  18. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    Parker, Simon; Coffey, Chris; Gravesen, Jens; Kirkpatrick, James; Ratcliffe, Keith; Lingard, Bryan; Nally, James

    2013-01-01

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time

  19. HTGR [High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor] ingress analysis using MINET

    Van Tuyle, G.J.; Yang, J.W.; Kroeger, P.G.; Mallen, A.N.; Aronson, A.L.

    1989-04-01

    Modeling of water/steam ingress into the primary (helium) cooling circuit of a High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) is described. This modeling was implemented in the MINET Code, which is a program for analyzing transients in intricate fluid flow and heat transfer networks. Results from the simulation of a water ingress event postulated for the Modular HTGR are discussed. 27 refs., 6 figs., 6 tabs

  20. Durable concrete for a waste repository - Measurement of ionic ingress

    Feldman, R.F.; Beaudoin, J.J.; Philipose, K.E.

    1990-01-01

    A waste repository for the below ground disposal of low level radioactive waste is planned at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories. It relies greatly on the durability of concrete for the required 500 year service life. A research program to design durable concrete and predict its service life is in progress. The degradation of the concrete depends to a large extent on the rate of ingress of corrosive agents. Penetration of chloride and sulfate ions are particularly relevant. Twenty mix formulations were developed to create various types and qualities of concrete, and to study their behavior in different site environmental conditions. A total of 1,000 concrete specimens are being exposed at 20C and 45C to 25 different combinations of the corrosive agents including CO 2 . Procedures to measure the ionic profiles and to determine the factors controlling diffusion of the ions in the various concretes have been developed. Results of selected concrete systems exposed to chloride and sulfate solutions for 1 year are presented and discussed in terms of pore structure and permeability parameters of the concrete

  1. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  2. Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

    Chuwah, C.; van Noije, T.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hazeleger, W.; Strunk, A.; Deetman, S.; Beltran, A.M.; van Vliet, J.

    2013-01-01

    The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control

  3. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year...

  4. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  5. Air quality in the mid-21. century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the 'business-as-usual' scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic 'mitigation' scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions

  6. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  7. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  8. Physics of the pebble-bed high temperature reactor in massive water ingress accidents

    Scherer, W.

    1989-10-01

    A point-kinetics model was developed to describe qualitatively hypothetical water ingress transients in the primary loop of High Temperature Reactors. Neutron kinetics, heat-flow balance and the chemical reaction of graphite corrosion together with their mutual influence are included. The qualitative behaviour of the transients is calculated and discussed for two fictitious examples, namely the long-term water ingress into a medium sized HTR (HTR-500) and the 'startup' of a small HTR after an intensive water flooding of the core. The model developed and the computer code KINKOR are thought to be tools for the general understanding of the water ingress phenomena and should be looked at as basis for more elaborated systems. (orig./HP) [de

  9. The Safety of Hospital Beds: Ingress, Egress, and In-Bed Mobility.

    Morse, Janice M; Gervais, Pierre; Pooler, Charlotte; Merryweather, Andrew; Doig, Alexa K; Bloswick, Donald

    2015-01-01

    To explore the safety of the standard and the low hospital bed, we report on a microanalysis of 15 patients' ability to ingress, move about the bed, and egress. The 15 participants were purposefully selected with various disabilities. Bed conditions were randomized with side rails up or down and one low bed with side rails down. We explored the patients' use of the side rails, bed height, ability to lift their legs onto the mattress, and ability to turn, egress, and walk back to the chair. The standard bed was too high for some participants, both for ingress and egress. Side rails were used by most participants when entering, turning in bed, and exiting. We recommend that side rails be reconsidered as a means to facilitate in-bed movement, ingress, and egress. Furthermore, single deck height settings for all patients are not optimal. Low beds as a safety measure must be re-evaluated.

  10. Ingression-type cell migration drives vegetal endoderm internalisation in the Xenopus gastrula.

    Wen, Jason Wh; Winklbauer, Rudolf

    2017-08-10

    During amphibian gastrulation, presumptive endoderm is internalised as part of vegetal rotation, a large-scale movement that encompasses the whole vegetal half of the embryo. It has been considered a gastrulation process unique to amphibians, but we show that at the cell level, endoderm internalisation exhibits characteristics reminiscent of bottle cell formation and ingression, known mechanisms of germ layer internalisation. During ingression proper, cells leave a single-layered epithelium. In vegetal rotation, the process occurs in a multilayered cell mass; we refer to it as ingression-type cell migration. Endoderm cells move by amoeboid shape changes, but in contrast to other instances of amoeboid migration, trailing edge retraction involves ephrinB1-dependent macropinocytosis and trans -endocytosis. Moreover, although cells are separated by wide gaps, they are connected by filiform protrusions, and their migration depends on C-cadherin and the matrix protein fibronectin. Cells move in the same direction but at different velocities, to rearrange by differential migration.

  11. Durability testing of low clinker blends - chloride ingress in similar strength mortar exposed to seawater

    Geiker, Mette Rica; De Weerdt, Klaartje; Garzón, Sergio Ferreiro

    2017-01-01

    Resistance to chloride ingress of ten different binders was investigated. Most of the binders were prepared with 35% substitution of a new clinker by limestone filler, calcined clay, burnt shale and/or siliceous fly ash. Mortar samples with similar design compressive strength after 90 days were e...... exposed to artificial sea-water for 270 days. The results indicate that the use of alternative binders may lead to up to around 15% reduction in CO2 emission without compromising 90 days compressive strength and resistance to chloride ingress in marine exposure....

  12. Chloride ingress in cracked concrete : A laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) study

    Savija, B.; Schlangen, E.; Pacheco Farias, J.; Millar, S.; Eichler, T.; Wilsch, G.

    2014-01-01

    racks are always present in reinforced concrete structures. In the presented research, influence of mechanical cracks on chloride ingress is studied. A compact reinforced concrete specimen was designed, mimicking the cracking behaviour of beam elements. Cracks of different widths were induced by

  13. Characteristic behaviour of Pebble Bed High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors during water ingress events

    Khoza, Samukelisiwe N.; Serfontein, Dawid E.; Reitsma, Frederik

    2014-01-01

    The presence of water on the tube-side of the steam generators in high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) with indirect cycle layouts presents a possibility for a penetration of neutron moderating steam into the core, which may cause a power excursion. This article presents results on the effect of water ingress into the core of the two South African Pebble Bed Modular Reactor design concepts, i.e. the PBMR-200 MW th and the PBMR-400 MW th developed by PBMR SOC Ltd. The VSOP 99/05 suite of codes was used for the simulation of this event. Partial steam vapour pressures were added in stages into the primary circuit in order to investigate the effect of water ingress on reactivity, power profiles and thermal neutron flux profiles. The effects of water ingress into the core are explained by increased neutron moderation, due to the addition of 1 H, which leads to a decrease in resonance capture by 238 U and therefore an increase in the multiplication factor. The more effective moderation of neutrons by definition reduces the fast neutron flux and increases the thermal flux in the core, i.e. leads to a softer spectrum. The more effective moderation also increases the average increase in lethargy between collisions of a neutron with successive fuel kernels, which reduces the probability for neutron capture in the radiative capture resonances of 238 U. The resulting higher resonance escape probability also increases the thermal flux in the core. The softening of the neutron spectrum leads to an increased effective microscopic fission cross section in the fissile isotopes and thus to increased neutron absorption for fission, which reduces the remaining number of neutrons that can diffuse into the reflectors. Therefore water ingress into the core leads to a reduced thermal neutron flux in the reflectors. The power density spatial distribution behaved similarly to the thermal neutron flux in the core. Analysis of possible mechanisms was conducted. The results show that

  14. Scenario planning.

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. Monitoring Ingress of Moisture in Structural Concrete Using a Novel Optical-Based Sensor Approach

    Yeo, T L; Cox, M A C; Boswell, L F; Sun, T; Grattan, K T V

    2006-01-01

    The detection of moisture ingress in concrete is important for structural monitoring and in this work is realised by monitoring the shift in the characteristic wavelength of a fibre Bragg grating-based sensor. The sensor relies upon a moisture-sensitive polymer layer deposited on the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) and the strain induced on it as a result of polymer swelling is monitored. Moisture ingress experiments were carried out using two such optical fibre sensors, placed at varying distances from the edge of the face of standard concrete cubes to the inner part of the concrete sample and subjected to water at a constant temperature. Information on the properties of different types of concrete and thus potentially on the migration of dissolved salts and their effect on reinforcement bars within concrete can be obtained

  17. Oxygen ingress study of 3D printed gaseous radiation detector enclosures

    Steer, Christopher A.; Durose, Aaron [AWE, Alderrnaston, Reading, Berkshire, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-01

    As part of our ongoing studies into the potential application of 3D printing techniques to gaseous radiation detectors, we have studied the ability of 3D printed enclosures to resist environmental oxygen ingress. A set of cuboid and hexagonal prism shaped enclosures with wall thicknesses of 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm and 10 mm were designed and printed in nylon using a EOSINT P 730 Selective Laser Sintering 3D printer system These test enclosures provide a comparison of different environmental gas ingress for different 3D printing techniques. The rate of change of oxygen concentration was found to be linear, decreasing as the wall thickness increases. It was also found that the hexagonal prism geometry produced a lower rate of change of oxygen concentration compared with the cuboid shaped enclosures. Possible reasons as to why these results were obtained are discussed The implications for the this study for deployable systems are also discussed (authors)

  18. Oxygen ingress study of 3D printed gaseous radiation detector enclosures

    Steer, Christopher A.; Durose, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    As part of our ongoing studies into the potential application of 3D printing techniques to gaseous radiation detectors, we have studied the ability of 3D printed enclosures to resist environmental oxygen ingress. A set of cuboid and hexagonal prism shaped enclosures with wall thicknesses of 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm and 10 mm were designed and printed in nylon using a EOSINT P 730 Selective Laser Sintering 3D printer system These test enclosures provide a comparison of different environmental gas ingress for different 3D printing techniques. The rate of change of oxygen concentration was found to be linear, decreasing as the wall thickness increases. It was also found that the hexagonal prism geometry produced a lower rate of change of oxygen concentration compared with the cuboid shaped enclosures. Possible reasons as to why these results were obtained are discussed The implications for the this study for deployable systems are also discussed (authors)

  19. Investigations on accidents with massive water ingress exemplified by the pebble bed reactor PNP-500

    Moormann, R.

    1986-01-01

    A computer code is used for analyses of massive water ingress accidents in the High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor concept PNP-500 with pebble bed core. The analyses are mainly focussed on graphite corrosion processes. For the investigated accidents a correct reactor shut down in assumed. The mass of water ingressing into the primary circuit is varied between 1000 and 7500 kg (i.e., up to hypothetical values). The dependence of accident consequences on parameters such as intensity and starting time of the afterheat removal system or kinetic values of the chemical processes is examined. The results show that even under pessimistic assumptions the extent of the graphite corrosion is relatively low; significant damaging of fuel elements or graphite components does not occur. A primary circuit depressurization, combined with local burning of water gas, would probably not affect the fission product retention potential of the (gastight) containment. Summing up, the risk caused by these accidents remains small. (orig.) [de

  20. Operating experience of a sodium rig following the ingress of oil

    Bell, A C; Mehew, R D; Robertson, C M [UKAEA, Dounreay, Thurso, Caithness, Scotland (United Kingdom)

    1980-05-01

    The experience of operating the Small Water Leak Rig at Dounreay in the two years following the ingress into the sodium of silicone oil from the pump is reported. The carbon penetration into the rig pipework has been monitored and has been found to agree with a diffusion model. The predictions based on this model have enabled an operating strategy to be determined to allow continued operation of the rig. (author)

  1. Vision-Aided Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro Aerial Vehicles

    Brockers, Roland; Ma, Jeremy C.; Matthies, Larry H.; Bouffard, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Micro aerial vehicles have limited sensor suites and computational power. For reconnaissance tasks and to conserve energy, these systems need the ability to autonomously land at vantage points or enter buildings (ingress). But for autonomous navigation, information is needed to identify and guide the vehicle to the target. Vision algorithms can provide egomotion estimation and target detection using input from cameras that are easy to include in miniature systems.

  2. Operating experience of a sodium rig following the ingress of oil

    Bell, A.C.; Mehew, R.D.; Robertson, C.M.

    1980-01-01

    The experience of operating the Small Water Leak Rig at Dounreay in the two years following the ingress into the sodium of silicone oil from the pump is reported. The carbon penetration into the rig pipework has been monitored and has been found to agree with a diffusion model. The predictions based on this model have enabled an operating strategy to be determined to allow continued operation of the rig. (author)

  3. Assessments of Water Ingress Accidents in a Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

    Zhang Zuoyi; Dong Yujie; Scherer, Winfried

    2005-01-01

    Severe water ingress accidents in the 200-MW HTR-module were assessed to determine the safety margins of modular pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTR-module). The 200-MW HTR-module was designed by Siemens under the criteria that no active safety protection systems were necessary because of its inherent safe nature. For simulating the behavior of the HTR-module during severe water ingress accidents, a water, steam, and helium multiphase cavity model was developed and implemented in the dynamic simulator for nuclear power plants (DSNP) simulation system. Comparisons of the DSNP simulations incorporating these models with experiments and with calculations using the time-dependent neutronics and temperature dynamics code were made to validate the simulation. The analysis of the primary circuit showed that the maximum water concentration increase in the reactor core was 3 s). The water vaporization in the steam generator and characteristics of water transport from the steam generator to the reactor core would reduce the rate of water ingress into the reactor core. The analysis of a full cavitation of the feedwater pump showed that if the secondary circuit could be depressurized, the feedwater pump would be stopped by the full cavitation. This limits the water transported from the deaerator to the steam generator. A comprehensive simulation of the HTR-module power plant showed that the water inventory in the primary circuit was limited to ∼3000 kg. The nuclear reactivity increase caused by the water ingress would lead to a fast power excursion, which would be inherently counterbalanced by negative feedback effects. The integrity of the fuel elements, because the safety-relevant temperature limit of 1600 deg. C is not reached in any case, is not challenged

  4. Evaluation of ATP measurements to detect microbial ingress by wastewater and surface water in drinking water.

    Vang, Óluva K; Corfitzen, Charlotte B; Smith, Christian; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2014-11-01

    Fast and reliable methods are required for monitoring of microbial drinking water quality in order to protect public health. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was investigated as a potential real-time parameter for detecting microbial ingress in drinking water contaminated with wastewater or surface water. To investigate the ability of the ATP assay in detecting different contamination types, the contaminant was diluted with non-chlorinated drinking water. Wastewater, diluted at 10(4) in drinking water, was detected with the ATP assay, as well as 10(2) to 10(3) times diluted surface water. To improve the performance of the ATP assay in detecting microbial ingress in drinking water, different approaches were investigated, i.e. quantifying microbial ATP or applying reagents of different sensitivities to reduce measurement variations; however, none of these approaches contributed significantly in this respect. Compared to traditional microbiological methods, the ATP assay could detect wastewater and surface water in drinking water to a higher degree than total direct counts (TDCs), while both heterotrophic plate counts (HPC 22 °C and HPC 37 °C) and Colilert-18 (Escherichia coli and coliforms) were more sensitive than the ATP measurements, though with much longer response times. Continuous sampling combined with ATP measurements displays definite monitoring potential for microbial drinking water quality, since microbial ingress in drinking water can be detected in real-time with ATP measurements. The ability of the ATP assay to detect microbial ingress is influenced by both the ATP load from the contaminant itself and the ATP concentration in the specific drinking water. Consequently, a low ATP concentration of the specific drinking water facilitates a better detection of a potential contamination of the water supply with the ATP assay. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Effect of steam corrosion on core post strength loss: I. Low, chronic steam ingress rates

    Wichner, R.P.

    1976-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the effect of chronic, low levels of steam ingress into the primary system of the HTGR on the corrosion, and consequent strength loss of the core support posts. The assessment proceeded through the following three steps: (1) The impurity composition in the primary system was estimated as a function of a range of steady ingress rates of from 0.001 to 1.0 g/sec, both by means of an analysis of the Dragon steam ingress experiment and a computer code, TIMOX, which treats the primary system as a well-mixed pot. (2) The core post burnoffs which result from 40-year exposures to these determined impurity atmospheres were then estimated using a corrosion rate expression derived from published ATJ-graphite corrosion rate data. Burnoffs were determined for both the core posts at the nominal and the maximum sustained temperature, estimated to be 90 0 C above nominal. (3) The final step involved assessment of the degree of strength loss resulting from the estimated burnoffs. An empirical equation was developed for this purpose which compares reasonably well with strength loss data for a number of different graphites and specimen geometries

  6. Current scenario

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  7. Air Oxidation Behaviors of Zircaloy-4 Cladding During a LOCA In Spent Fuel Pool

    Bang, Je Geon; Chun, Tae Hyun; Kim, Sun Ki; Koo, Yang Hyun

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that air oxidation induces a serious degradation of the Zircaloy cladding material, compared with steam oxidation. From the oxidant point of view, in comparison with steam, chemical heat release during oxidation in air is higher by 80%, which may lead to a more rapid degradation of the Zircaloy cladding, and further evolution of the accident.. Additionally, the oxidation kinetics in air is much faster than in steam due to the formation of non-protective oxide layer. From the safety point of view, the barrier effect of the cladding against release of fission products is lost much earlier in air compared to steam. The objective of this study is to investigate the oxidation behaviors of fuel cladding in two different conditions such as isothermal and transient condition and to generate its kinetic data under an accident condition in the spent fuel pool. In this study, the oxidation behaviors and its kinetics of the Zircaloy-4 were investigated in air environment for various air ingress scenarios in the temperature range 600 .deg. C-1,400 .deg. C by thermo-gravimetric analysis. In this study, the oxidation behaviors of the Zircaloy-4 for both isothermal condition and transient condition were investigated in air environment. In comparison with isothermal condition, the retardation of oxidation rate in transient condition was observed at both 1,200 .deg. C and 1,400 .deg. C. This seems to be ascribed to the effect of thin oxide formed during a heating

  8. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

    D. A. Permadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018 focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF–CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030 black carbon (BC emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF. The business as usual (BAU2030 projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007, assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 emissions were assumed. WRF–CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2, which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such

  9. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

    Agustian Permadi, Didin; Oanh, Nguyen Thi Kim; Vautard, Robert

    2018-03-01

    Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF-CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF-CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m-2, which would increase to 2.0 W m-2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m-2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production

  10. Biophysical processes leading to the ingress of temperate fish larvae into estuarine nursery areas: A review

    Teodósio, Maria Alexandra; Paris, Claire B.; Wolanski, Eric; Morais, Pedro

    2016-12-01

    A series of complementary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the recruitment of marine and temperate pelagic fish larvae originated from pelagic eggs in coastal environments. In this review, we propose a new and complementary hypothesis describing the biophysical processes intervening in the recruitment of temperate fish larvae into estuaries. This new hypothesis, the Sense Acuity And Behavioral (SAAB) hypothesis, recognizes that recruitment is unlikely if the larvae drift passively with the water currents, and that successful recruitment requires the sense acuity of temperate fish larvae and their behavioral response to the estuarine cues present in coastal areas. We propose that temperate fish larvae use a hierarchy of sensory cues (odor, sound, visual and geomagnetic cues) to detect estuarine nursery areas and to aid during navigation towards these areas. The sensorial acuity increases along ontogeny, which coincides with increased swimming capabilities. The swimming strategies of post-flexion larvae differ from offshore areas to the tidal zone. In offshore areas, innate behavior might lead larvae towards the coast guided by a sun compass or by the earth's geomagnetic field. In areas under limited influence of estuarine plumes (either in energetic nearshore areas or offshore), post-flexion larvae display a searching swimming behavior for estuarine disconnected patches (infotaxis strategy). After finding an estuarine plume, larvae may swim along the increasing cue concentration to ingress into the estuary. Here, larvae exhibit a rheotaxis behavior and avoid displacement by longshore currents by keeping bearing during navigation. When larvae reach the vicinity of an estuary, merging diel rhythms with feeding and predator avoidance strategies with tidally induced movements is essential to increase their chances of estuarine ingress. A fish larva recruitment model developed for the Ria Formosa lagoon supports the general framework of the SAAB hypothesis. In

  11. Numerical simulation of severe water ingress accidents in a modular high temperature gas cooled reactor

    Zhang Zuoyi; Scherer, W.

    1996-01-01

    This report analyzes reverse water ingress accidents in the SIEMENS 200 MW Modular Pebble-Bed High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTR-MODULE) under the assumption of no active safety protection systems in order to find the safety margins of the current HTR-MODULE design and to realize a catastrophe-free nuclear technology. A water, steam and helium multi-phase cavity model is developed and implemented in the DSNP simulation system. The DSNP system is then used to simulate the primary and secondary circuit of a HTR-MODULE power plant. Comparisons of the model with experiments and with TINTE calculations serve as validation of the simulation. The analysis of the primary circuit tries to answer the question how fast the water enters the reactor core. It was found that the maximum H 2 O concentration increase in the reactor core is smaller than 0.3 kg/(m 3 s). The liquid water vaporization in the steam generator and H 2 O transport from the steam generator to the reactor core reduce the ingress velocity of the H 2 O into the reactor core. In order to answer the question how much water enters the primary circuit, the full cavitation of the feed water pumps is analyzed. It is found that if the secondary circuit is depressurized enough, the feed water pumps will be inherently stopped by the full cavitation. This limits the water to be pumped from the deaerator to the steam generator. A comprehensive simulation of the MODUL-HTR power plant then shows that the H 2 O inventory in the primary circuit can be limited to about 3000 kg. The nuclear reactivity increase caused by the water ingress leads to a fast power excursion, which, however, is inherently counterbalanced by negative feedback effects. Concerning the integrity of the fuel elements, the safety relevant temperature limit of 1600 C was not reached in any case. (orig.) [de

  12. The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

    Winn, Joshua N.; Howard, Andrew W.; Johnson, John A.; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Gazak, J. Zachary; Starkey, Donn; Ford, Eric B.; Colon, Knicole D.; Reyes, Francisco; Nortmann, Lisa; hide

    2009-01-01

    We reported the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 plus or minus 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibited an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. Thus, the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism.

  13. Chloride Ingress in Concrete with Different Age at Time of First Chloride Exposure

    Hansen, Esben Østergaard; Iskau, Martin Riis; Hasholt, Marianne Tange

    2016-01-01

    Concrete structures cast in spring have longer time to hydrate and are therefore denser and more resistant to chloride ingress when first subjected to deicing salts in winter than structures cast in autumn. Consequently, it is expected that a spring casting will have a longer service life....... This hypothesis is investigated in the present study by testing drilled cores from concrete cast in 2012 and 2013 on the Svendborgsund Bridge. The cores are subject to petrographic examination and mapping of chloride profiles. Moreover, chloride migration coefficients have been measured. The study shows...

  14. Pressurizing Behavior on Ingress of Coolant into Pebble Bed of Blanket of Fusion DEMO Reactor

    Daigo Tsuru; Mikio Enoeda; Masato Akiba

    2006-01-01

    Solid breeder blankets are being developed as candidate blankets for the Fusion DEMO reactor in Japan. JAEA is performing the development of the water cooled and helium cooled solid breeder blankets. The blanket utilizes ceramic breeder pebbles and multiplier pebbles beds cooled by high pressure water or high pressure helium in the cooling tubes placed in the blanket box structure. In the development of the blanket, it is very important to incorporate the safety technology as well as the performance improvement on tritium production and energy conversion. In the safety design and technology, coolant ingress in the blanket box structure is one of the most important events as the initiators. Especially the thermal hydraulics in the pebble bed in the case of the high pressure coolant ingress is very important to evaluate the pressure propagation and coolant flow behavior. This paper presents the preliminary results of the pressure loss characteristics by the coolant ingress in the pebble bed. Experiments have been performed by using alumina pebble bed (4 litter maximum volume of the pebble bed) and nitrogen gas to simulate the helium coolant ingress into breeder and multiplier pebble beds. Reservoir tank of 10 liter is filled with 1.0 MPa nitrogen. The nitrogen gas is released at the bottom part of the alumina pebble bed whose upper part is open to the atmosphere. The pressure change in the pebble bed is measured to identify the pressure loss. The measured values are compared with the predicted values by Ergun's equation, which is the correlation equation on pressure loss of the flow through porous medium. By the results of the experiments with no constraint on the alumina pebble bed, it was clarified that the measured value agreed in the lower flow rate. However, in the higher flow rate where the pressure loss is high, the measured value is about half of the predicted value. The differences between the measured values and the predicted values will be discussed from

  15. A software tool for evaluation of hydrogen ingress in CANDU pressure tubes

    Mihalache, Maria; Vasile, Radu; Deaconu, Mariea

    2009-01-01

    The prediction of hydrogen isotopes concentration into the body and in the rolled joints of operating pressure tubes as a function of reactor hot hours is very important in many fitness-for-service assessments and end of life estimates. The rolled joints are high stress zones with potential for delayed hydride cracking. Predictive models for assessing the long-term deuterium ingress in both body and rolled joint of the pressure tubes have been implemented in a software tool, ROHID, developed in INR-Pitesti. ROHID is a PC-based Windows application with a user-friendly interface that predicts the equivalent hydrogen ingress for Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes. It uses colour-coded reactor core maps to display the predicted deuterium concentration as a function of time for selected axial locations. Plots of deuterium versus axial location and time for individual pressure tubes are also available. Also, the software tool can predict the exceeding of hydrogen terminal solid solubility (HTSS) from hydrides during precipitation and dissolving processes as a function of time and axial location. (authors)

  16. Suppressing hydrogen ingress during aqueous corrosion of CANDU Zr-2.5 Nb pressure tube material

    Elmoselhi, M.B.; Donner, A.; Brennenstuhl, A.; Warr, B.D.; Ellis, P.J.; Evans, D.W.

    2002-01-01

    As a result of their special properties, including low neutron cross-section and intrinsic corrosion resistance, Zr alloys are used in the fabrication of nuclear core components, particularly fuel cladding (in most reactor types) and also Zr-2.5 Nb pressure tubes in CANDU trademark (Canada Deuterium Uranium) reactors. Corrosion and H uptake during service can limit the life of these components. Therefore, remedial action may be appropriate to slow the H uptake rate and prolong the working life of these reactor components. This work has explored the possibility of reducing H uptake in pressure tube material by incorporating an inhibiting agent into the corrosion environment. Two approaches have been tested, depositing a thin metallic film on the initial oxide surface and adding an inhibiting agent to the solution. The latter approach appears more practical. Screening experiments were conducted in short-term (∝30 day) exposures in high temperature (340 C) aqueous out-reactor environments, simulating the CANDU trademark heat transport coolant with various chemistries. Compounds tested included aluminum acetate, aluminum nitrate, lithium nitrate, rhodium nitrate and yttrium nitrate. Comparison of results from the aluminum nitrate additives and aluminum acetate additives suggests that the nitrate anion is the effective ingredient for H ingress inhibition. The nitrate anion appears to reduce the rate of H ingress regardless of the associated cation. However, each cation appears to affect the rate of corrosion differently. These cations were found to be incorporated in the oxide film. (authors)

  17. Severe water ingress accident analysis for a Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor

    Zhang Zuoyi; Scherer, Winfried

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes the severe water ingress accidents in the SIEMENS 200MW Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTR-Module) under the assumption of no active safety protection systems in order to find the safety margin of the current HTR-Module design. A water, steam and helium multi-phase cavity model is originally developed and implemented in the DSNP simulation system. The developed DSNP system is used to simulate the primary circuit of HTR-Module power plant. The comparisons of the models with the TINTE calculations validate the current simulation. After analyzing the effects of blower separation on water droplets, the wall heat storage, etc., it is found that the maximum H 2 O density increase rate in the reactor core is smaller than 0.3 kg/(m 3 s). The liquid water vaporization in the steam generator and H 2 O transport from the steam generator to the reactor core reduces the impulse of the H 2 O in the reactor core. The nuclear reactivity increase caused by the water ingress leads to a fast power excursion, which, however, is inherently counterbalanced by negative feedback effects. Concerning the integrity of the fuel elements, the safety relevant temperature limit of 1600degC was not reached in any case. (author)

  18. Cosmogonic scenario

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  19. Influence of temporal resolution and processing of exposure data on modeling of chloride ingress and reinforcement corrosion in concrete

    Flint, Madeleine; Michel, Alexander; Billington, Sarah L.

    2014-01-01

    a numerical heat and mass transport model that includes full coupling of heat, moisture and ion transport. Heat, moisture, and chloride concentration distributions were passed to a simplified reinforcement corrosion initiation and propagation model. The numerical study indicates that processing and temporal...... resolution of the exposure data has a considerable impact on long-term hygrothermal distribution, chloride ingress, and reinforcement section loss results. Use of time-averaged exposure data in the heat and mass transport model reduces the rate of chloride ingress in concrete and affects prediction...

  20. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    Apte, Michael G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dutton, Spencer M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berkeley, Pam M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Spears, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  1. Analysis of an infill scenario for Rotterdam. Traffic noise, air pollution, and public health in relation to urban density and traffic of cars and bicycles

    Schaminée, S.; Rietveld, E.; Salomons, E.; Kluizenaar, Y. de; Borsboom, J.; Borst, H.; Guit, M.

    2012-01-01

    An analysis is presented of various elements of an infill scenario for the center of Rotterdam in the year 2030, corresponding to a population increase from about 30,000 to 60,000 inhabitants. We have implemented detailed future building designs in our software instrument Urban Strategy, and

  2. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  3. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Sidborn, Magnus; Sandstroem, Bjoern; Tullborg, Eva-Lena; Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge; Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  4. Simulation of lumbar and neck angle flexion while ingress of paratransit (angkot in Indonesia as a preliminary design study

    Yukhi Mustaqim Kusuma Sya’bana

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the preliminary finding of a study to simulate lumbar and neck flexion while ingress to the paratransit. The result of simulation will determine design aspect criteria as a preliminary step before ideation and implementation design steps. Biomechanics of Bodies (BoB is software that used to represent passenger task during paratransit ingress simulation, with skeleton model that used is height 165 cm and weight 65 kg. Environment to represent this simulation is measured Suzuki Carry SS 2013 as a private car that has been modified into a public transportation in accordance with the Indonesian government road-worthy test. Due to the low height of the entrance and the high ground clearance, lumbar and neck joint angle was a focus of this ingress simulation. The peak angle at the neck joint is 40° when 2 s skeleton nod in the door limitation ingress and lumbar flexion is 70° when 5 s skeleton is walking while bend over that will increase the load on that area. Based on biomechanical simulation approach, we may suggest the dimension of public transportation design framework developments, especially paratransit.

  5. 36 CFR 14.5 - Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress.

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress. 14.5 Section 14.5 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR RIGHTS-OF-WAY Nature of Interest § 14.5 Nature...

  6. Roles of texture in controlling oxidation, hydrogen ingress and hydride formation in Zr alloys

    Szpunar, Jerzy A.; Qin, Wen; Li, Hualong; Kumar, Kiran

    2011-01-01

    Experimental observations shows that the oxide formed on Zr alloys are strongly textured. The texture and grain-boundary characteristics of oxide are dependent on the texture of metal substrate. Computer simulation and thermodynamic modeling clarify the effect of metal substrate on structure of oxide film, and intrinsic factors affecting the microstructure. Models of diffusion process of hydrogen atoms and oxygen diffusion through oxide are presented. Both intra-granular and inter-granular hydrides were found following (0001) α-Zr //(111) δ-ZrH1.5 relationship. The through-thickness texture inhomogeneity in cladding tubes, the effects of hoop stress on the hydride orientation and the formation of interlinked hydride structure were studied. A thermodynamic model was developed to analyze the nucleation and the stress-induced reorientation of intergranular hydrides. These works provide a framework for understanding the oxidation, the hydrogen ingress and the hydride formation in Zr alloys. (author)

  7. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  8. Air

    Gugele, B.; Scheider, J.; Spangl, W.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years several regulations and standards for air quality and limits for air pollution were issued or are in preparation by the European Union, which have severe influence on the environmental monitoring and legislation in Austria. This chapter of the environmental control report of Austria gives an overview about the legal situation of air pollution control in the European Union and in specific the legal situation in Austria. It gives a comprehensive inventory of air pollution measurements for the whole area of Austria of total suspended particulates, ozone, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, heavy metals, benzene, dioxin, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and eutrophication. For each of these pollutants the measured emission values throughout Austria are given in tables and geographical charts, the environmental impact is discussed, statistical data and time series of the emission sources are given and legal regulations and measures for an effective environmental pollution control are discussed. In particular the impact of fossil-fuel power plants on the air pollution is analyzed. (a.n.)

  9. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  10. Summary of the BIOMOVS A4 scenario: Testing models of the air-pasture-cow milk pathway using Chernobyl fallout data

    Peterson, S.R.; Hoffman, F.O.; Koehler, H.

    1996-01-01

    A unique opportunity to test dose assessment models arose after the Chernobyl reactor accident. During the passage of the contaminated plume, concentrations of 131 I and 137 Cs in air, pasture, and cow's milk were collected at various sites in the northern hemisphere. Afterwards, contaminated pasture and milk samples were analyzed over time. Under the auspices of the Biospheric Model Validation Study (BIOMOVS), data from 13 sites for 131 I and 10 sites for 137 Cs were used to test model predictions for the air-pasture-cow milk pathway. Calculations were submitted for 23 models, 10 of which were quasi-steady state. The others were time-dependent. Daily predictions and predictions of time-integrated concentration of 131 I and 137 Cs in pasture grass and milk for six months post-accident were calculated and compared with observed data. Testing against data from several locations over time for several steps in the air-to-milk pathway resulted in a better understanding of important processes and how they should be modeled. This model testing exercise showed both the strengths and weaknesses of the models and revealed the importance of testing all parts of dose assessment models whenever possible. 19 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs

  11. Magnitude and reactivity consequences of moisture ingress into the modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor core

    Smith, O.L.

    1992-12-01

    Inadvertent admission of moisture into the primary system of a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor has been identified in US Department of Energy-sponsored studies as an important safety concern. The work described here develops an analytical methodology to quantify the pressure and reactivity consequences of steam-generator tube rupture and other moisture-ingress-related incidents. Important neutronic and thermohydraulic processes are coupled with reactivity feedback and safety and control system responses. The rate and magnitude of steam buildup are found to be dominated by major system features such as break size compared with safety valve capacity and reliability and less sensitive to factors such as heat transfer coefficients. The results indicate that ingress transients progress at a slower pace than previously predicted by bounding analyses, with milder power overshoots and more time for operator or automatic corrective actions

  12. Verso un nuovo scenario per la valutazione della ricerca: l'Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR dell'Università di Milano

    Paola Galimberti

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Il presente lavoro esamina l'esperienza dell'utilizzo dell'archivio istituzionale dell'Università degli Studi di Milano come fonte di informazione per la valutazione interna dei prodotti della ricerca dei Dipartimenti della Facoltà di Lettere e Filosofia.  Attraverso l'analisi dei risultati dell'esercizio pilota, l'archivio e il sistema di elaborazione di dati in esso contenuti si sono rivelati un ottimo strumento per l'aggregazione e l'analisi di grandi quantità di metadati bibliografici qualitativamente affidabili e utilizzabili per esercizi di valutazione all'interno dell'ateneo. La comparabilità con altri atenei si è invece rivelata difficile, poiché l'utilizzo degli archivi non è ancora generalizzato e non vi sono garanzie rispetto alla copertura e all'esaustività dei dati in essi contenuti. Ne deriva in primo luogo la necessità di estendere questa prassi con modalità concordate, come ad esempio attraverso le raccomandazioni prodotte in tal senso dalla CRUI. Inoltre, un tale approccio open access non limita le sue potenzialità a una facilitazione nell'accesso alle informazioni, ma ne modifica la stessa modalità di fruizione. Lo scenario valutativo dovrà quindi forzatamente adattarsi al nuovo quadro, esattamente come la circolazione delle informazioni via web ha modificato la misurabilità dei contributi forniti rispetto agli esiti registrati nelle stesse pubblicazioni.

  13. Non-destructive vacuum decay method for pre-filled syringe closure integrity testing compared with dye ingress testing and high-voltage leak detection.

    Simonetti, Andrea; Amari, Filippo

    2015-01-01

    solution, preventing possible prefilled syringe plunger movement during container closure integrity testing execution, is presented as well. The growing need to meet sterile drug products' regulatory, quality, and safety expectations has progressively driven new developments and improvements both in container closure integrity testing methods and in the respective equipment, over the last years. Indeed, container closure integrity testing establishes the container closure system capability to provide required protection to the drug product and to demonstrate maintenance of product sterility over its shelf life. This article describes the development of four container closure integrity testing approaches for the evaluation of glass prefilled syringe closure integrity, including two destructive (pharmacopoeial and Novartis specific dye ingress test) and two non-destructive (vacuum decay and high-voltage leak detection) methods. The important finding from the validation of comparative studies was that the vacuum decay method resulted in the most effective, reliable and repeatable detection of defective samples, whether the defect was exposed to sterile water, to drug product, or to air. Complete sets of known defects were created for this purpose (5 μm, 10 μm, 20 μm certified leakages by laser drilled holes and capillary tubes). All investigations and studies were conducted at Bonfiglioli Engineering S.r.l. (Vigarano Pieve, Ferrara, Italy) and at Novartis Vaccines (Sovicille, Siena, Italy). © PDA, Inc. 2015.

  14. Dynamic in vivo mapping of model moisturiser ingress into human skin by GARfield MRI.

    Ciampi, Elisabetta; van Ginkel, Michael; McDonald, Peter J; Pitts, Simon; Bonnist, Eleanor Y M; Singleton, Scott; Williamson, Ann-Marie

    2011-02-01

    We describe the development of in vivo one-dimensional MRI (profiling) using a GARField (Gradient At Right angles to Field) magnet for the characterisation of side-of-hand human skin. For the first time and in vivo, we report measurements of the NMR longitudinal and transverse relaxation parameters and self-diffusivity of the upper layers of human skin with a nominal spatial resolution better than 10 µm. The results are correlated with in vivo confocal Raman spectroscopy measurements of water concentration and natural moisturiser factors, and discussed in terms of known skin biology and microstructure of the stratum corneum and viable epidermis. The application of model moisturiser solutions to the skin is followed and their dynamics of ingress are characterised using the MRI methodology developed. Selected hydrophilic and lipophilic formulations are studied. The results are corroborated by standard in vivo measurements of transepidermal water loss and hydration status. A further insight into moisturisation mechanisms is gained. The effect of two different penetration enhancers on a commonly used skin care oil is also discussed, and different timescales of oil penetration into the skin are reported depending on the type of enhancer. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Analysis on ingress of coolant event in vacuum vessel using modified TRAC-BF1 code

    Ajima, Toshio; Kurihara, Ryoichi; Seki, Yasushi

    1999-08-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC-BF1) was modified on the basis of ICE experimental results so as to analyze the Ingress of Coolant Event (ICE) in the vacuum vessel of a nuclear fusion reactor. In the previous report, the TRAC-BF1 code, which was originally developed for the safety analysis of a light water reactor, had been modified for the ICE of the fusion reactor. And the addition of the flat structural plate model to the VESSEL component and arbitrary appointment of the gravity direction had been added in the TRAC-BF1 code. This TRAC-BF1 code was further modified. The flat structural plate model of the VESSEL component was enabled to divide in multi layers having different materials, and a part of the multi layers could take a buried heater into consideration. Moreover, the TRAC-BF1 code was modified to analyze under the low-pressure condition close to vacuum within range of the steam table. This paper describes additional functions of the modified TRAC-BF1 code, analytical evaluation using ICE experimental data and the ITER model with final design report (FDR) data. (author)

  16. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    Parker, Simon

    2013-08-13

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time series in different internal locations. A state-space approach is adopted to represent the concentration dynamics within multizone buildings. Analysis based on this approach is used to demonstrate that the exposure in every interior location is limited to the exterior exposure in the absence of removal mechanisms. Estimates are also developed for the short term maximum concentration and exposure in a multizone building in response to a step-change in concentration. These have considerable potential for practical use. The analytical development is demonstrated using a simple two-zone building with an inner zone and a range of existing multizone models of residential buildings. Quantitative measures are provided of the standard deviation of concentration and exposure within a range of residential multizone buildings. Ratios of the maximum short term concentrations and exposures to single zone building estimates are also provided for the same buildings. © 2013 Tsinghua University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  17. Discussion on amount of water ingress mass in steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture accident of high- temperature gas-cooled reactor

    Wang Yan; Zheng Yanhua; Shi Lei; Li Fu; Sun Ximing

    2009-01-01

    The steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture (SGTR) accident which will result in the water ingress to the primary circuit of reactor is an important and particular accident for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). The analysis of the water ingress accident is significant for verifying the inherent safety characteristics of HTGR. The amount of water ingress mass is one of the decisive factors for the seriousness of the accident consequence. The 250 MW Pebble-bed Modular High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTR-PM) designed by Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University was selected as an example of analysis. The analysis results show that the amount of water ingress mass is not only affected directly with the broken position and the broken area of the tubes, but also related with the diameter of draining piping and restrictor, draining control valve, action setting of emptier system. With reasonable parameters chosen, the water in steam generator could be drained effectively, so it will prevent the primary circuit of reactor from water ingress in large quantity and reduce the radioactive isotopes ingress to the secondary circuit. (authors)

  18. EVALUATION OF SCENARIOS OF AIR POLLUTANTS EMISSIONS BY THE AIRPORT EXPANSION AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE - CASE STUDY OF THE EXTENSION OF VIRACOPOS AIRPORT AT CAMPINAS, SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

    Lucia H.G. Coelho

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the airport segment faces environmental externalities especially related to the increase in emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs from combustion of fossil fuels by the aircraft engine, by the machinery for the maintenance of the planes and also by the vehicles used for passengers connections (private cars, taxicabs or public transportation system. In this scope, the current work presents the case study of the expansion of the Viracopos International Airport at Campinas – São Paulo, Brazil. To evaluate that, the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC was implemented to estimate the emissions of GHGs by aircraft for the years 2008 (before expansion, 2012 (current picture and 2018 (future scenario observing the changes in demand for passengers and cargo transportation. To evaluate the emissions from the vehicles it was used the AIMSUN microsimulation software to estimate emissions in the years 2012 and to simulate sensitivity scenarios for the year 2018. It was found that the inventory of CO2 emissions for both types of transports considered for the Viracopos airport showed similar orders of magnitude, what can be inferred about the equivalent contribution of these two modes on emissions of GHGs for the study area. These results may serve as a basis for establishing emission management plans of air pollutants by the competent organizations and to propose more targeted and effective measures to reduce the GHG emissions by these sources.

  19. Continuum-based DFN-consistent simulations of oxygen ingress in fractured crystalline rocks

    Trinchero, P.; Puigdomenech, I.; Molinero, J.; Ebrahimi, H.; Gylling, B.; Svensson, U.; Bosbach, D.; Deissmann, G.

    2016-12-01

    The potential transient infiltration of oxygenated glacial meltwater into initially anoxic and reducing fractured crystalline rocks during glaciation events is an issue of concern for some of the prospected deep geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel. Here, this problem is assessed using reactive transport calculations. First, a novel parameterisation procedure is presented, where flow, transport and geochemical parameters (i.e. hydraulic conductivity, effective/kinetic porosity, and mineral specific surface and abundance) are defined on a finite volume numerical grid based on the (spatially varying) properties of an underlying Discrete Fracture Network (DFN). Second, using this approach, a realistic reactive transport model of Forsmark, i.e. the selected site for the proposed Swedish spent nuclear fuel repository, is implemented. The model consists of more than 70 million geochemical transport degrees of freedom and simulates the ingress of oxygen-rich water from the recharge area of the domain and its depletion due to reactions with the Fe(II) mineral chlorite. Third, the calculations are solved in the supercomputer JUQUEEN of the Jülich Supercomputing Centre. The results of the simulations show that oxygen infiltrates relatively quickly along fractures and deformation zones until a steady state profile is reached, where geochemical reactions counterbalance advective transport processes. Interestingly, most of the iron-bearing minerals are consumed in the highly conductive zones, where larger mineral surfaces are available for reactions. An analysis based on mineral mass balance shows that the considered rock medium has enough capacity to buffer oxygen infiltration for a long period of time (i.e. some thousand years).

  20. Parametric study of postulated reactivity transients due to ingress of heavy water from the reflector tank into the converted core of APSARA reactor

    Sankaranarayanan, S.

    2004-01-01

    Research reactors in the power range 5-10 MW with useable neutron flux values >1.OE+14 n/sqcm/sec can be constructed using LEU fuel with light water for neutron moderation and fuel cooling. In order to obtain a large irradiation volume, a heavy water reflector is used where fairly high neutron flux levels can be obtained. A prototype LEU fuelled 5/10 MW reactor design has been developed in the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in Trombay. Work is on hand to carry out technology simulation of this reactor design by converting the pool type reactor APSARA in BARC. Presently the Apsara reactor uses MTh type high enriched U-Al alloy plate type fuel loaded in a 7x7 grid with a square lattice pitch of 76.8 mm. The reactor has three control-scram-shut off rods and one regulating control rod. In the first phase of the simulation studies, it is proposed to use the existing high enriched uranium fuel in a modified core with 37 positions arranged with a square lattice pitch of 84.8 mm, surrounded by a 50 cm thick heavy water reflector. Subsequently the converted core will use plate-type low enriched uranium suicide fuel. One of the accident scenarios postulated for the safety evaluation of the modified APSARA reactor is the reactivity transient due to the ingress of heavy water into the core through a small sized rupture in the aluminium wall of the reflector tank. Parametric analyses were done for the safety evaluation of modified Apsara reactor, for postulated leak of heavy water into the core from the reflector tank. A simplified computer code REDYN, based on point model reactor kinetics with one effective group of delayed neutrons is used for the analyses. Results of several parametric cases used in the study show that it is possible to contain the consequences of this type of reactivity transient within acceptable fuel and coolant thermal safety limits

  1. Exposure scenarios for workers

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  2. Oxidation and Volatilization from Tantalum Alloy T-222 During Air Exposure

    Smolik, Galen Richard; Petti, David Andrew; Sharpe, John Phillip; Schuetz, Stanley Thomas

    2000-10-01

    Tantalum alloys are one of the refractory metals with renewed consideration for high temperatures in fusion reactor applications. Tantalum alloys perform well in protective environments but oxidized readily in gases containing higher oxygen levels. In addition, the radioactive isotope Ta-182 would be produced in tantalum and could be a significant contributor to dose if mobilized. Other isotopes of importance are produced from tungsten and hafnium. Mobilization of activated products during an accident with air ingress is therefore a safety issue. In this study, we measured the extent of oxidation and mobilization from tantalum alloy T-222 oxidized in flowing air between 500 and 1200°C. This alloy nominally contains 10 wt% tungsten, 2.5 wt% hafnium and 0.01 wt% carbon. We found that the mobilization of Ta and Hf was closely linked to the occurrence of oxide spalling. These elements showed no migration from the test chamber. Some W was mobilized by volatilization as evidenced by transport from the chamber. Tungsten volatilization could occur primarily during initial stages of oxidation before an oxide scale forms and impedes the process. The mobilization of Ta and W are presented in terms of the mass flux (g/m 2 -h) as a function of test temperature. These measurements along with specific designs, activation calculations, and accident scenarios provide information useful for dose calculations of future fusion devices

  3. Oxidation and Volatilization from Tantalum Alloy T-222 During Air Exposure

    Smolik, G.R.; Petti, D.A.; Sharpe, J.P.; Schuetz, S.T.

    2000-10-31

    Tantalum alloys are one of the refractory metals with renewed consideration for high temperatures in fusion reactor applications. Tantalum alloys perform well in protective environments but oxidized readily in gases containing higher oxygen levels. In addition, the radioactive isotope Ta-182 would be produced in tantalum and could be a significant contributor to dose if mobilized. Other isotopes of importance are produced from tungsten and hafnium. Mobilization of activated products during an accident with air ingress is therefore a safety issue. In this study, we measured the extent of oxidation and mobilization from tantalum alloy T-222 oxidized in flowing air between 500 and 1200 C. This alloy nominally contains 10 wt% tungsten, 2.5 wt% hafnium and 0.01 wt% carbon. We found that the mobilization of Ta and Hf was closely linked to the occurrence of oxide spalling. These elements showed no migration from the test chamber. Some W was mobilized by volatilization as evidenced by transport from the chamber. Tungsten volatilization could occur primarily during initial stages of oxidation before an oxide scale forms and impedes the process. The mobilization of Ta and W are presented in terms of the mass flux (g/m 2 -h) as a function of test temperature. These measurements along with specific designs, activation calculations, and accident scenarios provide information useful for dose calculations of future fusion devices.

  4. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  5. Scenarios for Evolution of Air Traffic Control,

    1981-11-01

    decisionmaking systems. We have thus approached it from the perspectives of computer science, engineering, human-factors psychology , and the emerging field of...assurance monitor or indepen- dent collision-avoidance system like ATARS could prevent the acci- 35 dent), but there will undoubtedly be other situations

  6. Numerical analysis on ingress-of-coolant events in fusion reactors with TRAC-PF1 code

    Ose, Yasuo; Takase, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

    2000-01-01

    As for accident events related with thermal-hydraulics, in a fusion experimental reactor an ingress-of-coolant event (ICE) and a loss-of-vacuum-accident event (LOVA) should be considered. An integrated ICE/LOVA test apparatus is under planning in order to estimate quantitatively heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics under ICE and LOVA events. This study was carried out to predict numerically the thermal-hydraulic characteristics in fusion reactors at the ICE events before construction of the integrated ICE/LOVA test apparatus. The TRAC-PF1 code, which was originally developed for the thermal-hydraulic safety analysis in light water reactors, was used. The numerical analyses were performed for two kinds of system configuration with/without a pressure-suppression tank:the former for is investigation of the pressure rise characteristics and two-phase flow behavior; the latter for estimation of an effect of the pressure reduction due to the pressure-suppression tank. From the present analytical results, effects of the ingress water flow rate and vessel temperatures on the pressure rise ware clarified quantitatively. Furthermore, the pressure-rise suppression effect due to the vapor condensation in the pressure-suppression tank was predicted numerically. In addition, the useful information regarding to the design of the integrated ICE/LOVA test apparatus and the knowledge with respect to the effective usage of the TRAC-PF1 code were obtained through the present numerical study. (author)

  7. Improvement design study on steam generator of MHR-50/100 aiming higher safety level after water ingress accident

    Oyama, S.; Minatsuki, I.; Shimizu, K.

    2012-01-01

    Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI) has been studying on MHI original High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (HTGR), namely MHR-50/100, for commercialization with supported by JAEA. In the heat transfer system, steam generator (SG) is one of the most important components because it should be imposed a function of heat transfer from reactor power to steam turbine system and maintaining a nuclear grade boundary. Then we especially focused an effort of a design study on the SG having robustness against water ingress accident based on our design experience of PWR, FBR and HTGR. In this study, we carried out a sensitivity analysis from the view point of economic and plant efficiency. As a result, the SG design parameter of helium inlet/outlet temperature of 750 deg. C/300 deg. C, a side-by-side layout and one unit of SG attached to a reactor were selected. In the next, a design improvement of SG was carried out from the view point of securing the level of inherent safety without reliance on active steam dump system during water ingress accident considering the situation of the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster on March 11, 2011. Finally, according to above basic design requirement to SG, we performed a conceptual design on adapting themes of SG structure improvement. (authors)

  8. Investigation of the quality of stored red blood cells after simulated air drop in the maritime environment.

    Meli, Athinoula; Hancock, Vicky; Doughty, Heidi; Smedley, Steve; Cardigan, Rebecca; Wiltshire, Michael

    2018-02-01

    Maritime medical capability may be compromised by blood resupply. Air-dropped red blood cells (RBCs) is a possible mitigation factor. This study set out to evaluate RBC storage variables after a simulated parachute air drop into the sea, as limited data exist. The air load construction for the air drop of blood was subject to static drop assessment to simulate a worst-case parachute drop scenario. One control and two test Golden Hour shipping containers were each packaged with 10 RBC units. The control box was not dropped; Test Boxes 1 and 2 were further reinforced with waterproof boxes and underwent a simulated air drop on Day 7 or Day 8 postdonation, respectively. One day after the drop and once a week thereafter until Day 43 of storage, RBCs from each box were sampled and tested for full blood counts, hemolysis, adenosine triphosphate, 2,3-diphosphoglycerate, pH, extracellular potassium, glucose, lactate, deformability, and RBC microvesicles. The packaging configuration completed the air drop with no water ingress or physical damage. All units met UK specifications for volume, hemoglobin, and hemolysis. There were no significant differences for any of the variables studied between RBCs in the control box compared to RBCs in Test Boxes 1 and 2 combined over storage. The test proved that the packaging solution and the impact of a maritime air drop as performed in this study, on Day 7 or Day 8 postdonation, did not affect the in vitro quality of RBCs in SAGM over storage for 35 days. © 2017 AABB.

  9. The world in scenarios

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  10. Food scenarios 2025

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  11. Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-6 test data report: thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure? (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼ φ 30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength is being addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus measures the fracture strength of the crust while it is either at room temperature or above, the latter state being achieved with a heating element placed below the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the sixth water ingression test, designated SSWICS-6. This test investigated

  12. Use of a multi-species reactive transport model to simulate chloride ingress in mortar exposed to NaCl solution or sea-water

    Jensen, Mads Mønster; De Weerdt, K.; Johannesson, Björn

    2015-01-01

    Simulations of ion ingress in Portland cement mortar using a multi-species reactive mass transport model are compared with experimental test results. The model is an extended version of the Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations, accounting for chemical equilibrium. Saturated mortar samples were exposed...

  13. From scenarios to components

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Scenario-based strategizing

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  16. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  17. Integrative Scenario Development

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  18. Autonomous urban reconnaissance ingress system (AURIS): providing a tactically relevant autonomous door-opening kit for unmanned ground vehicles

    Shane, David J.; Rufo, Michael A.; Berkemeier, Matthew D.; Alberts, Joel A.

    2012-06-01

    The Autonomous Urban Reconnaissance Ingress System (AURIS™) addresses a significant limitation of current military and first responder robotics technology: the inability of reconnaissance robots to open doors. Leveraging user testing as a baseline, the program has derived specifications necessary for military personnel to open doors with fielded UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles), and evaluates the technology's impact on operational mission areas: duration, timing, and user patience in developing a tactically relevant, safe, and effective system. Funding is provided through the US ARMY Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) and the project represents a leap forward in perception, autonomy, robotic implements, and coordinated payload operation in UGVs. This paper describes high level details of specification generation, status of the last phase of development, an advanced view of the system autonomy capability, and a short look ahead towards the ongoing work on this compelling and important technology.

  19. Magnitude and reactivity consequences of accidental moisture ingress into the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor core

    Smith, O.L.

    1992-01-01

    Accidental admission of moisture into the primary system of a Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) has been identified in US Department of Energy-sponsored studies as an important safety concern. The work described here develops an analytical methodology to quantify the pressure and reactivity consequences of steam-generator tube rupture and other moistureingress-related incidents. Important neutronic and thermohydraulic processes are coupled with reactivity feedback and safety and control system responses. Rate and magnitude of steam buildup are found to be dominated by major system features such as break size in comparison with safety valve capacity and reliability, while being less sensitive to factors such as heat transfer coefficients. The results indicate that ingress transients progress at a slower pace than previously predicted by bounding analyses, with milder power overshoots and more time for operator or automatic corrective actions

  20. Fundamental study of a water jet injected into a vacuum vessel of fusion reactor under the ingress of coolant event

    Takase, Kazuyuki; Kunugi, Tomoaki; Seki, Yasushi; Kurihara, Ryouichi; Ueda, Shuzou

    1996-01-01

    As one of some transient sequences for the thermofluid safety in ITER, pressure rise and boiling heat transfer characteristics in a Tokamak vacuum vessel during an ingress of coolant event (ICE) are being investigated experimentally by using the preliminary ICE apparatus. The pressure rise rates in the vacuum vessel and the wall temperature distributions on the target plate were measured quantitatively and clarified at first. In addition, a two-phase flow under the ICE conditions was analyzed numerically for predicting the experimental results using one-dimensional transport equations and the drift-flux model. The experimental results were compared with the numerical results. It was found that the pressurization behavior during the ICE conditions could be estimated qualitatively by the present numerical analyses. 5 refs., 5 figs

  1. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with

  2. Mars base buildup scenarios

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  3. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  4. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  5. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  6. Scenarios and innovative systems

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  7. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  8. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  9. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  10. Regional climate change scenarios

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  11. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) design report, Rev. 2 October 31, 2002

    Farmer, M.; Lomperski, S.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.; Pfeiffer, P.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are planned to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. A description of the test apparatus, instrumentation, data reduction, and test matrix are the subject of the first portion of this report. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The introduction of a thermal gradient across the crust is thought to be important for these tests because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the thermal stresses and thus their relative

  12. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  13. Scenario group summary

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  14. Scenario group summary

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  15. Some observations on the problem of jelly fish ingress in a power station cooling system at Kalpakkam, east coast of India

    Rajagopal, S.; Azariah, Jayapaul; Nair, K.V.K.

    1989-01-01

    The paper reports results of a study on the seasonal distribution and abundance of jelly fishes in the coastal waters of Kalpakkam in the context of their ingress into the cooling system of a power plant. Three species of jelly fishes Dactylometra quinquicirrha (L. agassiz), Crambionella stuhlmanni (Chun) and Chiropsalmus buitendijki (Horst) were found in such abundance as to cause blockage of the cooling water intake screens. The seasonal variation in the incidence of the jelly fishes clearly showed that the periods of maxima and minima were different for each species. During the period of study (February 1988 to April 1989) three maxima were noted - May, July and October. On any given single day, maximum quantity of jelly fishes collected from the travelling screens was 29 tonnes (21 July 1988). The data are discussed with respect of (i)qualitative and quantitative variations in the ingress of jelly fishes at Kalpakkam, (ii)operational problems associated with jelly fish ingress and (iii)possible approaches to combat the problem. (author). 1 tab., 4 figs., 9 ref s

  16. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  17. Climate scenarios for California

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  18. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  19. An economically reliable scenario

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  1. An Accelerated Test Method of Simultaneous Carbonation and Chloride Ion Ingress: Durability of Silica Fume Concrete in Severe Environments

    S. A. Ghahari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack on mechanical characteristics and durability of concrete containing silica fume have been investigated through an accelerated test method. Specimens containing different amounts of silica fume were maintained in an apparatus in which carbon dioxide pressure and concentration and relative humidity were kept constant, and wetting and drying cycles in saline water were applied. Surface resistivity, sorptivity, CO2 consumption, and carbonation and chloride ion ingress depths measurements were taken. Phase change due to carbonation and chloride ion attack was monitored by XRD analysis, and microstructures and interfacial transition zones were studied by implementing SEM as well as mercury intrusion porosimetry. It was expected to have a synergistic effect in the tidal zone where simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack happen. However, the observed reduced surface resistivity, compared to specimens maintained in CO2 gas, could be due to the moisture that is available near the surface, hindering CO2 from penetrating into the pores of the specimens. Moreover, the porosity analysis of the specimens showed that the sample containing silica fume cured in the tidal zone had 50.1% less total porosity than the plain cement paste cured in the same condition.

  2. ‹Portale›, die zum Nachdenken anregen. Einblicke in eine Interfaceanalyse des Augmented Reality Spiels Ingress

    Franco Rau

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Augmented Reality Spiele wie ‹Ingress› und ‹PokémonGo› stellen aktuell neue mediale Phänomene dar. Eine zentrale Differenz zu klassischen Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOs ist die Verzahnung von virtuellen und realen Objekten als konstitutive Spielelemente. In Anknüpfung an die Perspektive, digitale Spiele als Kultur- und Bildungsräume zu verstehen, widmet sich der Beitrag der Frage, inwiefern das Ingress-Spielen die Perspektive von Spieler/innen auf den öffentlichen Raum verändern kann. In erster Annäherung an diese Fragestellung wird auf Basis einer Interfaceanalyse gezeigt, wie ‹Portale› – virtueller Repräsentationen realer Objekte im Spiel – potenziell Irritationen und Differenz­erfahrungen ermöglichen. Diese können zum Ausgangspunkt weiterführender Reflexionen werden. Dafür werden exemplarisch ‹Portale› diskutiert, die (1. weiterführende Informationen zu realen Objekte bieten, die (2. Momentaufnahmen nicht mehr existierender kultureller Objekte darstellen und die (3. reale Objekte in ironischer Weise präsentieren.

  3. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  4. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  5. Ontario demand response scenarios

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  6. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  7. Water-ingress analysis for the 200 MWe pebble-bed modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    Zheng Yanhua; Shi Lei; Wang Yan

    2010-01-01

    Water ingress into the primary circuit is generally recognized as one of the severe accidents with potential hazard to the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor adopting steam-turbine cycle, which will cause a positive reactivity introduction, as well as the chemical corrosion of graphite fuel elements and reflector structure material. Besides, increase of the primary pressure may result in the opening of the safety valves, consequently leading the release of radioactive isotopes and flammable water gas. The analysis of such a kind of important and particular accident is significant to verify the inherent safety characteristics of the modular HTR plants. Based on the preliminary design of the 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor pebble-bed modular (HTR-PM), the design basis accident of a double-ended guillotine break of one heating tube and the beyond design basis accident of a large break of the main steam collection plate have been analyzed by using TINTE code, which is a special transient analysis program for high temperature gas-cooled reactors. Some safety relevant concerns, such as the fuel temperature, the primary loop pressure, the graphite corrosion, the water gas releasing amount, as well as the natural convection influence on the condition of failing to close the blower flaps, have been studied in detail. The calculation results indicate that even under some severe hypothetical postulates, the HTR-PM is able to keep the inherent safeties of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor and has a relatively good natural plant response, which will not result in environmental radiation hazard.

  8. Isotopic measurements in research on seawater ingression in the carbonate aquifer of the Salentine Peninsula, Southern Italy

    Cotecchia, V.; Tazioli, G.S.; Magri, G.

    1974-01-01

    Cretaceous calcareous and dolomitic rocks, bedded, jointed and karstified, and hence generally very permeable, form the basement of the Salentine Peninsula. These rocks constitute a huge aquifer with fresh and brackish groundwaters that float on groundwaters of marine origin. Sea level constitutes the base level of the ground waters. A basic outline is first given of the hydrogeology and the paleohydrogeology, so as to provide the necessary background information on the seawater intrusion phenomenon and to permit comparison of the results of the isotope data with those obtained by the classical methods of hydrogeological investigation. This is followed by presentation of the results of the isotopic measurements on 18 O, D, 13 C and 14 C. The δ 13 C contents indicate, in good agreement with the carbon dioxide and bicarbonate concentrations, that seawater ingression leads to the migration of carbon dioxide from the fresh and brackish waters towards the subjacent intrusive waters of marine origin. Along those stretches of coast where the seawaters are in direct communication with the groundwaters, all the isotope data point to very active renewal of groundwaters of marine origin by seawater. In the central parts of the peninsula and along those stretches of coast where direct communication between seawaters and groundwaters is impeded by impervious clays, the 14 C contents indicate that the seawater intrusion and consequently the migration of carbon dioxide are either very slow and continuous in time or that they occurred relatively rapidly in the past. Taking into consideration the paleohydrogeology of the peninsula, and the fact that the δ 18 O and δD values are higher than those of the present seawaters, leads to the belief that seawater intrusion may well have occurred during major variations in the sea level in the past, when climatic conditions were different from those now prevailing. (author)

  9. Scenarios for the future

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  10. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  11. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  12. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  13. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  14. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  15. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  16. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  17. Scenario development methodologies

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  18. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  19. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  20. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  1. The changing nutrition scenario

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  2. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  3. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  4. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  5. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  6. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  7. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  8. Urinary trans-trans muconic acid (exposure biomarker to benzene) and hippuric acid (exposure biomarker to toluene) concentrations in Mexican women living in high-risk scenarios of air pollution.

    Pruneda-Alvarez, Lucía G; Ruíz-Vera, Tania; Ochoa-Martínez, Angeles C; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N

    2017-11-02

    This study aimed to determine t,t-muconic acid (t,t-MA; exposure biomarker for benzene) and hippuric acid (HA; exposure biomarker for toluene) concentrations in the urine of women living in Mexico. In a cross-sectional study, apparently healthy women (n = 104) were voluntarily recruited from localities with a high risk of air pollution; t,t-MA and HA in urine were quantified using a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique. Mean urinary levels of t,t-MA ranged from 680 to 1,310 μg/g creatinine. Mean values of HA ranged from 0.38 to 0.87 g/g creatinine. In conclusion, compared to data recently reported in literature, we found high urinary levels of t,t-MA and HA in assessed women participating in this study. We therefore deem the implementation of a strategy aimed at the reduction of exposure as a necessary measure for the evaluated communities.

  9. OECD MCCI project Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 test data report: thermal hydraulic results. Rev. 0 September 20, 2002

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.J.; Aeschlimann, R.W.; Basu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The report includes a description of the test apparatus, the

  10. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-3 test data report: thermal Hydraulic results, Rev. 0 February 19, 2003

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the third water ingression test, designated SSWICS-3. This test investigated the quenching behavior of a fully oxidized PWR

  11. OECM MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-2 final data report, Rev. 0 February 12, 2003

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the second water ingression test, designated SSWICS-2. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep, fully

  12. OECD MMCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 final data report, Rev. 1 February 10, 2003.; Report, Rev. 1

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure; and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep, fully

  13. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  14. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  15. Air Quality and Climate Change

    Colette, A.; Rouil, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Schucht, S.; Szopa, S.; Vautard, R.; Menut, L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and air quality are closely related: through the policy measures implemented to mitigate these major environmental threats but also through the geophysical processes that drive them. We designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive regional air quality and climate modeling System to investigate future air quality in Europe taking into account the combined pressure of future climate change and long range transport. Using the prospective scenarios of the last generation of pathways for both climate change (emissions of well mixed greenhouse gases) and air pollutants, we can provide a quantitative view into the possible future air quality in Europe. We find that ozone pollution will decrease substantially under the most stringent scenario but the efforts of the air quality legislation will be adversely compensated by the penalty of global warming and long range transport for the business as usual scenario. For particulate matter, the projected reduction of emissions efficiently reduces exposure levels. (authors)

  16. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  17. Crew Configuration, Ingress/Egress Procedures, and In-Flight Caregiving Capacity in a Space Ambulance Based on the Boeing X-37B

    Halberg, Ephriam Etan

    This study proposes that a Boeing X-37B space plane, its dimensions and performance characteristics estimated from publicly available documents, diagrams, and photographs, could be internally redesigned as a medical evacuation (ambulance) vehicle for the International Space Station. As of 2017, there is currently no spacecraft designed to accommodate a contingency medical evacuation wherein a crew member aboard the ISS is injured or ailing and must be returned to Earth for immediate medical attention. The X-37B is an unmanned vehicle with a history of success in both sub-orbital testing and all four of its long-duration orbital missions to date. Research conducted at UC Davis suggests that it is possible to retain the outer mold line of the X-37B while expanding the internal payload compartment to a volume sufficient for a crew of three--pilot, crew medical officer, and injured crew member--throughout ISS un-dock and atmospheric entry, descent, and landing. In addition to crew life support systems, this re-purposed X-37B, hereafter referred to as the X-37SA (Space Ambulance), includes medical equipment for stabilization of a patient in-transit. This study suggests an optimal, ergonomic crew configuration and berthing port location, procedures for microgravity ingress and 1G egress, a minimum medical equipment list and location within the crew cabin for the medical care and monitoring equipment. Conceptual crew configuration, ingress/egress procedures, and patient/equipment access are validated via physical simulation in a full-scale mockup of the proposed X-37SA crew cabin.

  18. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  19. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  20. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  1. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  2. Oxygen Selective Membranes for Li-Air (O2 Batteries

    Mark Salomon

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-air (Li-air batteries have a much higher theoretical energy density than conventional lithium batteries and other metal air batteries, so they are being developed for applications that require long life. Water vapor from air must be prevented from corroding the lithium (Li metal negative electrode during discharge under ambient conditions, i.e., in humid air. One method of protecting the Li metal from corrosion is to use an oxygen selective membrane (OSM that allows oxygen into the cell while stopping or slowing the ingress of water vapor. The desired properties and some potential materials for OSMs for Li-air batteries are discussed and the literature is reviewed.

  3. Scenarios for remote gas production

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  4. Scenario development methods and practice

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  5. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  6. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  7. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  8. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  9. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  10. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  11. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  12. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  13. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  14. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  15. Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

    Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1984-01-01

    Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

  16. Method to increase the safety of a final storage site in a salt cavern filled with solidified radioactive waste with regard to unforeseen rock movements and/or water ingress into cavities of the final storage site

    Koester, R.; Rudolph, G.; Kroebel, R.

    1986-01-01

    The wastes of weak or average radio-activity (e.g. T) are stored in barrels in a salt mine. In order to prevent leaching of the waste after the ingress of water into the salt mine, the intermediate spaces between the barrels are filled with a concrete grout. This grout consists of a water/bentonite/cement mixture, to which sand may be added, and which hardens. It forms a monolithic block. (orig./PW)

  17. Method to increase the safety of a final storage site in a salt cavern filled with solidified radioactive waste with regard to unforeseen rock movements and/or water ingress into cavities of the final storage site

    Koester, R.; Rudolph, G.; Kroebel, R.

    1980-01-01

    The wastes of weak or average radio-activity (e.g. T) are stored in barrels in a salt mine. In order to prevent leaching of the waste after the ingress of water into the salt mine, the intermediate spaces between the barrels are filled with a concrete grout. This grout consists of a water/bentonite/cement mixture, to which sand may be added, and which hardens. It forms a monolithic block. (DG) [de

  18. Some perspective decisions for the regeneration system equipment of the thermal and nuclear power plants decreasing the probability of water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow

    Trifonov, N. N.; Svyatkin, F. A.; Sintsova, T. G.; Ukhanova, M. G.; Yesin, S. B.; Nikolayenkova, E. K.; Yurchenko, A. Yu.; Grigorieva, E. B.

    2016-03-01

    The regeneration system heaters are one of the sources of possible ingress of the water into the turbine. The water penetrates into the turbine either at the heaters overflow or with the return flow of steam generated when the water being in the heater boils up in the dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit. The return flow of steam and water is dangerous to the turbine blades and can result in the rotor acceleration. The known protective devices used to prevent the overflow of the low-pressure and high-pressure heaters (LPH and HPH), of the horizontal and vertical heaters of heating-system water (HWH and VWH), as well as of the deaerators and low-pressure mixing heaters (LPMH) were considered. The main protective methods of the steam and water return flows supplied by the heaters in dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit are described. Previous operating experience shows that the available protections do not fully prevent water ingress into the turbine and the rotor acceleration and, therefore, the development of measures to decrease the possibility of ingress of the water into the turbine is an actual problem. The measures allowing eliminating or reducing the water mass in the heaters are expounded; some of them were designed by the specialists of OAO Polzunov Scientific and Development Association on Research and Design of Power Equipment (NPO CKTI) and are efficiently introduced at heat power plants and nuclear power plants. The suggested technical solutions allow reducing the possibility of the water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow in the dynamic operation modes or in the case of power generating unit deenergization. Some of these solutions have been tested in experimental-industrial exploitation and can be used in industry.

  19. Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

    2010-01-01

    In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

  20. Air Research

    EPA's air research provides the critical science to develop and implement outdoor air regulations under the Clean Air Act and puts new tools and information in the hands of air quality managers and regulators to protect the air we breathe.

  1. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  2. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  3. Global energy context: future scenarios

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  4. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  5. Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

    Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

    2009-12-15

    There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

  6. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  7. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  8. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  9. Shaping Air Mobility Forces for Future Relevance

    2017-01-01

    King Air University Press 600 Chennault Circle, Building 1405 Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6010 afri.aupress@us.af.mil http://aupress.au.af.mil...the congressional study’s Persian Gulf scenario.37 Later Defense Department air mobility plans continued the CMMS pat- tern of paring down air mobility

  10. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  11. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  12. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  13. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  14. Role of the Hof1-Cyk3 interaction in cleavage-furrow ingression and primary-septum formation during yeast cytokinesis.

    Wang, Meng; Nishihama, Ryuichi; Onishi, Masayuki; Pringle, John R

    2018-03-01

    In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, it is well established that Hof1, Cyk3, and Inn1 contribute to septum formation and cytokinesis. Because hof1∆ and cyk3∆ single mutants have relatively mild defects but hof1∆ cyk3∆ double mutants are nearly dead, it has been hypothesized that these proteins contribute to parallel pathways. However, there is also evidence that they interact physically. In this study, we examined this interaction and its functional significance in detail. Our data indicate that the interaction 1) is mediated by a direct binding of the Hof1 SH3 domain to a proline-rich motif in Cyk3; 2) occurs specifically at the time of cytokinesis but is independent of the (hyper)phosphorylation of both proteins that occurs at about the same time; 3) is dispensable for the normal localization of both proteins; 4) is essential for normal primary-septum formation and a normal rate of cleavage-furrow ingression; and 5) becomes critical for growth when either Inn1 or the type II myosin Myo1 (a key component of the contractile actomyosin ring) is absent. The similarity in phenotype between cyk3∆ mutants and mutants specifically lacking the Hof1-Cyk3 interaction suggests that the interaction is particularly important for Cyk3 function, but it may be important for Hof1 function as well. © 2018 Wang et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  15. Air Pollution

    Air pollution is a mixture of solid particles and gases in the air. Car emissions, chemicals from factories, ... Ozone, a gas, is a major part of air pollution in cities. When ozone forms air pollution, it's ...

  16. Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

    Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

  17. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  18. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  19. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  20. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  1. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  2. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  3. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  4. Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

  5. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  6. Chemical aspects of hydrogen ingress in zirconium and zircaloy pressure tubes: ageing management of Indian PHWR coolant channels - determination of hydrogen and deuterium

    Sayi, Y.S.; Shankaran, P.S.; Yadav, C.S.; Ramanjaneyulu, P.S.; Venugopal, V.; Ramakumar, K.L.; Chhapru, G.C.; Prasad, R.; Jain, H.C.; Sood, D.D.

    2009-02-01

    Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) use zirconium and zirconium based alloys as clad and coolant tubes since its beginning. The first ever zircaloy-2 pressure tube failure occurred in 1983 at Ontario Hydro's Pickering Unit 2 in Canada which necessitated a thorough examination of causes of such failure. The failure was attributed to massive hydriding at the failed spot of pressure tube. Continuous usage of zirconium alloys could result in their hydrogen and deuterium pick-up leading to hydrogen/ deuterium embrittlement. The life of the zircaloy coolant channels is dictated by hydrogen/deuterium content and hence ageing management of the pressure tubes is essential for ensuring their trouble-free usage. It is desirable to have a sound knowledge on the chemical aspects of zirconium and zirconium based alloys metallurgy, the mechanistic principles of hydrogen ingress into the pressure tubes during in reactor service, and identifying suitable analytical methodologies for precise and accurate determination of hydrogen in wafer thin sliver samples carved out from insides of pressure tubes without causing any structural damage so that it can continue to remain in service. This is desirable so that the ageing management does not result in cost-escalation. This report is divided in to three main parts. The first part deals with the chemical aspects of zirconium and zirconium based alloy metallurgy, the mechanism of hydrogen pick-up and hydride formation in zirconium matrix. The second part describes various methodologies and their limitations, available for hydrogen/deuterium determination. The third part deals in detail, about the extensive investigations carried out at Radioanalytical Chemistry Division (RACD) in Radiochemistry and Isotope Group for establishing an indigenously developed hot vacuum extraction system in combination with quadrupole mass spectrometry for precise determination of hydrogen and deuterium in wafer thin sliver sample of zircaloy. The

  7. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  8. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  9. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

  10. Climate scenarios for semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A comparison of climate scenarios for the dryland regions, in West Africa from 1990 to 2050

    van den Born GJ; Schaeffer M; Leemans R; NOP

    2001-01-01

    The identification of climate scenarios for dryland areas in Sub-Saharan West Africa is part of a project to assess the impact of climate change on water availability, agriculture and food security in drylands (ICCD-project). The project is financed by Netherlands Research Programme on Global Air

  11. ITER safety and operational scenario

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  12. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  13. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  14. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios

    Welsch, Daniel L.; Jack Cosby, B.; Hornberger, George M.

    2006-01-01

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO 2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO 2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 μeq L - 1 ) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 μeq L - 1 ). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions

  15. Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

    Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal

    2011-01-01

    We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. - Research Highlights: → Climate policy scenarios are assessed with differentiated commitments in carbon emission control supported by Technology Transfer Protocols. → Donor countries finance, via carbon-tax revenues, the exports of carbon-free technologies in developing countries helping to get a new international agreement. → Developing countries experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and secondary benefits. → Under Technology Protocols alone and

  16. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  17. Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

    Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

  18. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  19. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  20. Air Abrasion

    ... Chapters What Is Air Abrasion? What Happens? The Pros and Cons Will I Feel Anything? Is Air ... will perform any procedures that use air-abrasion technology. Ask your dentist if he or she uses ...

  1. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  2. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  3. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  4. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  5. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  6. An Investigation of the Combat Air Patrol Stationing in an Integrated Air Defense Scenario

    1990-12-01

    guided missiles, drones , decoys and short range missiles and bombs. The defensive elements include a C2 netting of early warning (EW), ground...M, 69 andar 70045 Brasilia, DF Brasil 6. Departamento de Ensino Da Aerondutica Av. Mal CAmara , 233, 10 andar 20020 Rio de Janeiro, RJ Brasil 7...Diretoria de Informdtica e Estatfstica da Aeron~utica Av. Mal CAmara , 233, 8Q andar 20020 Rio de Janeiro, RJ Brasil 11. Centro de Computagdo da Aeronutica-BR

  7. Projections of precipitation, air temperature and potential ...

    mabouelhaggag

    Precipitation and air temperature records from 6 sites in Rwanda in the period from 1964 to 2010 are used for past/present climate assessment. Future climate projections (2010-2099) based on 3 general circulation models and 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) are used for climate projections. Precipitation, air temperature ...

  8. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  9. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  10. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  11. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  12. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  13. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  14. Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

    Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

    Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

  15. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  16. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  17. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  18. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  19. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  20. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  1. Ontario Hydro's integrated air management plan

    Kalvins, A.K.; Brown, D.; Camacho, F.; Howes, H.; Jantzi, B.; Lin, X.; Lui, P.; Melo, O.T.; Mortimer, W.P.; Reuber, B.

    1992-01-01

    Ontario Hydro is developing an integrated air management plan as a tool for comparing the environmental impacts of fossil-fuel power generation options. The goal is to relate equipment, location, emissions, and impacts and to identify the optimum way to manage the utility's fossil generation system in view of upcoming environmental regulations and public expectations. The eight steps of the plan are briefly described: definition of power generation scenarios (upgrading, conversion to natural gas, non-utility generation, alternative technologies); estimation of emissions for each generation and fuel option studied; identification of impact of air emissions on building materials, agriculture, forests, lakes, and fisheries; modelling of air emissions dispersion; quantification of damage to pollution receptors; quantification of full fuel cycle effects; and comparison of the scenarios. The scenario having the lowest overall environmental impact involved upgrading the existing fossil-fuel system with additional air emissions controls and two integrated gasification combined cycle plants. 9 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  2. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  3. The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

    Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

  4. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  5. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  6. The energy consumption of traffic 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

    Keller, M.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in the traffic sector for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various energy levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. The areas examined include road, rail and air traffic as well as 'off-road' traffic. Infrastructure developments are commented on. The four scenarios are examined for various sensitivities including high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. Alternative fuels are looked at, as are further factors such as fuel tourism, pollutant emissions and costs. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report is completed with a comprehensive appendix

  7. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  8. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  9. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  10. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  11. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  12. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  13. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  14. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  15. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  16. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  17. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  18. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  19. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  20. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  1. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  2. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  3. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  4. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  5. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  6. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  7. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  8. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  9. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  10. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  11. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  12. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

  13. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  14. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  15. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  16. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  17. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  18. Scenario Modeling of Thermal Influence from Forest Fire Front on a Coniferous Tree Trunk

    Baranovskiy Nikolay V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario research results of heat transfer and tissue damage in three-layered tree trunk influenced by heat flux from forest fire are presented. The problem is solved in two-dimensional statement in polar coordinates. The typical range of influence parameters (heat flux from forest fire front, trunk radius, coniferous species, air temperature, duration of exposure and distance from fire line is considered. Temperature distributions in different moments of time are obtained. Condition of tree damage by forest fire influence is under consideration in this research. Information summarized using tables with scenario and fire consequences results.

  19. Explanatory factors for evolution in air quality

    Deutsch, F.; Vankerkom, J.; Veldeman, N.; Peelaerts, W.; Fierens, F.; Vanpoucke, C.; Trimpeneers, E.; Vancraeynest, L.; Bossuyt, M.

    2010-12-01

    A method was formulated to map the Flemish sector contributions and foreign contributions to PM10, PM2.5 and ozone concentrations in Flanders. Flemish emissions scenarios from MIRA and the corresponding European emissions scenarios from IIASA were used for this. The content and production of these emissions scenarios were described in the Environment Outlook 2030 Flanders (REF and EUR scenarios) and in the MIRA study 'Particulate matter and photochemical air pollution. Visionary Scenario of the Environment outlook 2030 Flanders. In the context of this study, which emissions and atmospheric chemical processes play an important role in explaining the particulate matter and ozone concentrations in Flanders for the current situation (base year 2007) and for the three emissions prognoses for 2020 were analysed: (1) for an emissions scenario according to current European legislation; (2) for an emissions scenario with a number of additional European emissions reduction measures; (3) for an emissions scenario with further reaching emissions reductions. In general the emissions and the concentrations decrease in the three scenarios for 2020. The changes to emissions are related to sector and place, which has an impact on the relative sector contributions for Flanders. [nl

  20. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  1. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  2. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  3. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  4. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  5. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  6. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  7. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  8. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  9. Air pollution

    MacKenbach, JP; Henschel, S; Goodman, P; McKee, M

    2013-01-01

    The human costs of air pollution are considerable in Jordan. According to a report published in 2000 by the World Bank under the Mediterranean Environmental Technical Assistance Program (METAP), approximately 600 people die prematurely each year in Jordan because of urban pollution. 50-90% of air pollution in Jordanian towns is caused by road traffic. Readings taken in 2007 by Jordanian researchers showed that levels of black carbon particles in the air were higher in urban areas (caused by v...

  10. Impact of Air Entraining Method on the Resistance of Concrete to Internal Cracking

    Wawrzeńczyk, Jerzy; Molendowska, Agnieszka

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the test results of air entrained concrete mixtures made at a constant W/C ratio of 0.44. Three different air entraining agents were used: polymer microspheres, glass microspheres and a conventional air entraining admixture. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of the air entraining methods. Concrete mixture tests were performed for consistency (slump test), density and, in the case of AEA series, air content by pressure method. Hardened concrete tests were performed for compressive strength, water absorption, resistance to chloride ingress, and freeze-thaw durability - resistance to internal cracking tests were conducted in accordance with PN-88/B-06250 on cube specimens and with the modified ASTM C666 A test method on beam specimens; porosity characteristics (A, A300, \\bar L) were determined to PN-EN 480-11:1998. No significant mass and length changes were recorded for the concrete air entrained with the conventional methods or with polymer microspheres. The results indicate that polymer microspheres are a very good alternative to traditional air entraining methods for concrete, providing effective air entrainment and protection from freezing and thawing. The glass microsphere-based concretes showed insufficient freeze-thaw resistance. The test results indicate that both the conventional methods (AEA) and the air entrainment by polymer microspheres are effective air entraining methods. It has to be noted that in the case of the use of polymer microspheres, a comparable value of \\bar L and a very good freeze-thaw resistance can be achieved at a noticeably lower air and micropore contents and at lower strength loss.

  11. Scenario-based table top simulations

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  12. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  13. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  14. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  15. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  16. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  17. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  18. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  19. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  20. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant

  1. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  2. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  3. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  4. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  5. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  6. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  7. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  8. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  9. Scenario evaluation of open pond microalgae production

    Slegers, P.M.; Lösing, M.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Straten, van G.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate microalgae production in large scale open ponds under different climatologic conditions, a model-based framework is used to study the effect of light conditions, water temperature and reactor design on trends in algae productivity. Scenario analyses have been done for two algae species

  10. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  11. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  12. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  13. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  14. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  15. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  16. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  17. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  18. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  19. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  20. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  1. Air lock

    Palkovich, P.; Gruber, J.; Madlener, W.

    1974-01-01

    The patent refers to an air lock system preferably for nuclear stations for the transport of heavy loads by means of a trolley on rails. For opening and closing of the air lock parts of the rails are removed, e.g. by a second rail system perpendicular to the main rails. (P.K.)

  2. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  3. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  5. Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

    Jaagus, J.

    1996-01-01

    Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

  6. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  7. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  8. Health burdens of surface ozone in the UK for a range of future scenarios

    Heal, Mathew R.; Heaviside, Clare; Doherty, Ruth M.; Vieno, Massimo; Stevenson, David S.; Vardoulakis, Sotiris

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to surface ozone (O3), which is influenced by emissions of precursor chemical species, meteorology and population distribution, is associated with excess mortality and respiratory morbidity. In this study, the EMEP-WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to simulate surface O3 concentrations at 5 km horizontal resolution over the British Isles for a baseline year of 2003, for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios for 2030, and for a + 5 °C increase in air temperature on ...

  9. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  10. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  11. U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

    Vanderslice, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

  12. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  13. Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

    Volker Grienitz

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

  14. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  15. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  16. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  17. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  18. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  19. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  20. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  1. 3 Investment Scenarios for Fast Reactors

    Shoai Tehrani, Bianka; Da Costa, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    Results: • 4 families of scenarios: – In each of them, 3 options for national nuclear policy → 12 scenarios; – 3 favorable to FRs: - “climate constraint” with strong pro-nuclear policy - “climate constraint” with moderate pro-nuclear policy - “totally green” with strong pro-nuclear policy. • Business As Usual is not favorable to Fast Reactors; Fast reactors deployment: - Needs strong climate policy - Is viable in case of important renewable progress as long as climate policy is strong. International perspective: • Results are valid for Europe, other drivers being likely to be more important in other countries : high growth and demand (Asia); • With strong contrasts between European countries. Further research: • Finer modeling of drivers with unclear influence (clustered and excluded variables): Influence of weak signals

  2. Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

    Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

  3. TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios

    Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.

    1987-01-01

    A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  4. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Brown, M J [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Div. of Applied Sciences; Crouch, E [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Energy and Environmental Policy Center

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km/sup 2/ of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the waste are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  5. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  6. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  7. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis?(NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  8. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-08-31

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  9. The climatic scenario of global warming

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  10. Scenarios for the Electrification of Transport

    Kanudia , Amit; Gastineau , Pascal; BACHMANN , Till; PREISS , Philipp; STOFFREGEN , Alexander; VINOT , Simon; CHEZE , Benoît; Tchung-Ming , Stéphane; BOUVART , Frédérique

    2015-01-01

    SCelecTRA - Scenarios for the electrification of Transport is a collaborative project under the ERANET - Electromobility+ call for project and aims at: · identifying the conditions and public policies actions to develop road passenger electromobility in Europe for 2030, · assessing the environmental impacts of such policies via consequential Life Cycle Analysis as well as their external costs.; Sélectionné dans le cadre du programme ERANET- Electromobility+, le projet visait à identifier les ...

  11. A Note on Scenarios of Metastable Water

    Jirsák, Jan; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 75, č. 5 (2010), s. 593-605 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400720802; GA AV ČR IAA200760905; GA AV ČR IAA400720710 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : metastable water * spinodal * scenarios Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 0.853, year: 2010

  12. Internal wave attractors: different scenarios of instability

    Brouzet, Christophe; Ermanyuk, E. V.; Joubaud, Sylvain; Pillet, Grimaud; Dauxois, Thierry

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents an experimental study of different instability scenarios in a parallelogram-shaped internal wave attractor in a trapezoidal domain filled with a uniformly stratified fluid.Energy is injected into the system via the oscillatory motion of a vertical wall of the trapezoidal domain. Whole-field velocity measurements are performed with the conventional PIV technique. In the linear regime, the total kinetic energyof the fluid system is used to quantify th...

  13. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  14. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  15. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  16. Air quality assessment in Salim Slam Tunnel

    El-Fadel, M.; Hashisho, Z.; Saikaly, P.

    1999-01-01

    Full text.Vehicle emissions constitute a serious occupational environmental hazard particularly in confined spaces such as tunnels and underground parking garages. these emissions at elevated concentrations, can cause adverse health effects, which range from nausea and eye irritation to mutagenicity, carcinogenicity and even death. This paper presents an environmental air quality assessment in a tunnel located in a highly congested urban area. For this purpose, air samples were collected and analyzed for the presence of primary air pollutants, priority metals, and volatile organic carbons. Air quality modeling was conducted to simulate variations of pollutant concentrations in the tunnel under worst case scenarios including traffic congestion and no air ventilation. Field measurements and mathematical simulation results were used to develop a strategy for proper air quality management in tunnels

  17. Urban air quality management. V. 1

    1997-01-01

    This is the first in a series of reports commissioned by the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) to represent members' views on the management of urban air quality in the growing cities in developing countries. In this report, a general, science based framework is provided as a basis for understanding the nature of the problem in any specific urban area, the range of solutions that might be available, and the potential impact of each solution and its least cost privatisation. The topics covered are: a process for urban air quality management; setting air quality targets; a structured approach to the assessment of current and future air quality modelling methodologies; identification and collation of air quality model input data; development of socio-economic scenarios -long-term trend forecasting; cost effectiveness studies; the IPIECA approach to urban air quality management - development of partnerships; encouraging commitment to implementation of programme recommendations. (7 figures; 2 tables; 18 references). (UK)

  18. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  19. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  1. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  2. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  3. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

  4. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  5. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  6. Securing energy efficiency as a high priority. Scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

    Foran, T. [Unit for Social and Environmental Research USER, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, P.O. Box 144, Chiang Mai, 50200 (Thailand); Du Pont, P.T. [International Resources Group and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Bangkok (Thailand); Parinya, P. [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand); Phumaraphand, N. [Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand's energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5-6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand's residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand's total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006-2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand's voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.

  7. Air pollution

    Strauss, W; Mainwaring, S J

    1984-01-01

    This book deals with the nature of air pollution. The numerous sources of unwanted gases and dust particles in the air are discussed. Details are presented of the effects of pollutants on man, animals, vegetation and on inanimate materials. Methods used to measure, monitor and control air pollution are presented. The authors include information on the socio-economic factors which impinge on pollution control and on the problems the future will bring as methods of generating energy change and industries provide new sources of pollutants.

  8. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2015-01-01

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  9. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  10. Urban air quality in Europe

    Viana, Mar (ed.) [Spanish Research Council - CSIC, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. for Environmental Assessment and Water Research

    2013-07-01

    This book provides an overview of air quality in urban environments in Europe, focusing on air pollutant emission sources and formation mechanisms, measurement and modeling strategies, and future perspectives. The emission sources described are biomass burning, vehicular traffic, industry and agriculture, but also African dust and long-range transport of pollutants across the European regions. The impact of these emission sources and processes on atmospheric particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds is discussed and critical areas for particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in Europe are identified. Finally, this volume presents future perspectives, mainly regarding upcoming air quality monitoring strategies, metrics of interest, such as submicron and nanoparticles, and indoor and outdoor exposure scenarios.

  11. Comparative assessment of PSI air oxidation model implementation in SCDAPSim3.5, MELCOR 1.8.6 and MELCOR 2.1

    Fernandez-Moguel, Leticia

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The PSI air oxidation model has been successfully implemented in MELCOR. • The model treats oxygen as an active species and nitrogen as a catalyst. • The implementation has been assessed against the previous post-test analyses for QUENCH-16. • The pre-oxidation and air phase were consistent when similar modelling options were used. • All code versions were in fair agreement with the experimental data. - Abstract: The PSI air oxidation model has been successfully implemented in the lump parameter code MELCOR. The PSI air oxidation model treats oxygen as an active species and nitrogen as a catalyst that accelerates the oxidation kinetics. The essential feature of the model is the transition from parabolic to linear kinetics. The implementation has been assessed against the previous post-test analyses for the air ingress experiment QUENCH-16 performed with a local version of RELAP5/SCDAPSim3.5. This version contains the PSI air oxidation model. The pre-oxidation and air phase were consistent when similar modelling options were used and all code versions were in fair agreement with the experimental data, showing consistency in the implementation of the model. The PSI air oxidation model will be used in the future for analysis of spent fuel pool uncovery sequences where steam/air mixture is the prototypical environment

  12. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  13. Air lasing

    Cheng, Ya

    2018-01-01

    This book presents the first comprehensive, interdisciplinary review of the rapidly developing field of air lasing. In most applications of lasers, such as cutting and engraving, the laser source is brought to the point of service where the laser beam is needed to perform its function. However, in some important applications such as remote atmospheric sensing, placing the laser at a convenient location is not an option. Current sensing schemes rely on the detection of weak backscattering of ground-based, forward-propagating optical probes, and possess limited sensitivity. The concept of air lasing (or atmospheric lasing) relies on the idea that the constituents of the air itself can be used as an active laser medium, creating a backward-propagating, impulsive, laser-like radiation emanating from a remote location in the atmosphere. This book provides important insights into the current state of development of air lasing and its applications.

  14. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  15. Air Warfare

    2002-03-01

    genus as its predecessor of pre-war days. It would, however, be erroneous to conclude from this that the military value of each new development was...the paucity of communications, its conduct, when acting alone, has of necessity to be somewhat stereotyped in nature, and to con- form to a pre...the air, the attack commander, provided his command be equipped with defensive air power, has a rôle to perform which is simple and stereotyped in

  16. Air conditioner

    Sato, Masaaki

    1993-01-01

    The present invention provides an air conditioner which can prevent an undesirable effects on a human body due to radon daughter nuclides in a closed space. That is, the concentration of the radon daughter nuclides in the air in the closed space is continuously measured. A necessary amount of ventilation air is determined based on the measured concentration to generate control signals. External air is introduced into the closed space by the generated control signals. With such procedures, necessary amount of external air is taken from the atmospheric air which can be regarded to have the radon daughter nuclide concentration substantially at zero, thereby enabling to reduce the concentration of the radon daughter nuclides in the closed space. As a result, undesired effects on the human body due to the radon daughter nuclides staying in the closed space can be prevented. According to simulation, the radon daughter nuclides are rapidly decreased only by ventilation only for three times or so in one hour. Accordingly, ventilation is extremely effective and convenient means as a countermeasure for the radon daughter nuclides. (I.S.)

  17. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  18. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM project

    Alcamo, J.; Mayerhofer, P.; Guardans, R.; Harmelen, T. van; Minnen, J. van; Onigkeit, J.; Posch, M.; Vries, B. de

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995

  19. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  20. Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

    Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions