WorldWideScience

Sample records for air ingress scenarios

  1. MiniPanda - a small-scale containment test facility with novel instrumentation is used for code validation for an air ingress scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    “MiniPanda”, a small-scale containment test facility built at ETH Zurich, was equipped with novel field measurement techniques. The capabilities of the facility were demonstrated in a first test series on an air ingress scenario. The ingress of air into a helium cooled reactor is considered to be one of the most severe accidents for the GenIV-type helium cooled reactor. The air once arrived inside the reactor can cause the oxidation of the graphite structures. The ingress of air into a helium environment was investigated experimentally and analytically using the commercial CFX-13 and StarCCM+ 5.06 CFD codes. The experimental volume consists of two cylindrical vessels that are filled separately with air or helium. The experiment is initiated by removing the blockage from the pipe connecting the two vessels. The experimental and analytical results of the consequent buoyancy-driven air ingress are compared against each other. (author)

  2. Oxidation rate of nuclear-grade graphite IG-110 in the kinetic regime for VHTR air ingress accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jo Jo; Ghosh, Tushar K.; Loyalka, Sudarshan K.

    2014-03-01

    The oxidation rates of nuclear-grade graphite IG-110 in the kinetically-controlled temperature regime of graphite oxidation were predicted and compared in Very High Temperature Reactor air ingress accident scenarios. The oxidative mass loss of graphite was measured thermogravimetrically from 873 to 1873 K in 100% air (21 mol%). The activation energy was found to be 222.07 kJ/mol, and the order of reaction with respect to oxygen concentration is 0.76. The surfaces of the samples were characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy before and after oxidation. These results are compared with those available in the literature, and our recently reported results for NBG-18 nuclear-grade graphite using the same technique.

  3. Small Break Air Ingress Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Oh; Eung Soo Kim

    2011-09-01

    The small break air-ingress experiment, described in this report, is designed to investigate air-ingress phenomena postulated to occur in pipes in a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTRs). During this experiment, air-ingress rates were measured for various flow and break conditions through small holes drilled into a pipe of the experimental apparatus. The holes were drilled at right angles to the pipe wall such that a direction vector drawn from the pipe centerline to the center of each hole was at right angles with respect to the pipe centerline. Thus the orientation of each hole was obtained by measuring the included angle between the direction vector of each hole with respect to a reference line anchored on the pipe centerline and pointing in the direction of the gravitational force. Using this reference system, the influence of several important parameters on the air ingress flow rate were measured including break orientation, break size, and flow velocity . The approach used to study the influence of these parameters on air ingress is based on measuring the changes in oxygen concentrations at various locations in the helium flow circulation system as a function of time using oxygen sensors (or detectors) to estimate the air-ingress rates through the holes. The test-section is constructed of a stainless steel pipe which had small holes drilled at the desired locations.

  4. Isothermal air ingress validation experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idaho National Laboratory carried out air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations. An isothermal test loop was designed and set to understand the stratified-flow phenomenon, which is important as the initial air flow into the lower plenum of the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) when a large break loss-of-coolant accident occurs. The unique flow characteristics were focused on the VHTR air-ingress accident, in particular, the flow visualization of the stratified flow in the inlet pipe to the vessel lower plenum of the General Atomic's Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR). Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids, and water was used to represent a light fluid, which mimics a counter current flow due to the density difference between the stimulant fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between simulant fluids was established even for very small density differences. The CFD calculations were compared with experimental data. A grid sensitivity study on CFD models was also performed using the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for the numerical accuracy of CFD calculations . As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident. (author)

  5. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H Oh; Eung S Kim

    2011-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory carried out air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations. An isothermal test loop was designed and set to understand the stratified-flow phenomenon, which is important as the initial air flow into the lower plenum of the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) when a large break loss-of-coolant accident occurs. The unique flow characteristics were focused on the VHTR air-ingress accident, in particular, the flow visualization of the stratified flow in the inlet pipe to the vessel lower plenum of the General Atomic’s Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR). Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids, and water was used to represent a light fluid, which mimics a counter current flow due to the density difference between the stimulant fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between simulant fluids was established even for very small density differences. The CFD calculations were compared with experimental data. A grid sensitivity study on CFD models was also performed using the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for the numerical accuracy of CFD calculations . As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  6. AIR INGRESS ANALYSIS: COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have ranked an air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as important with regard to core safety. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core of the High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor through the break, possibly causing oxidation of the in-the core and reflector graphite structure. Simple core and plant models indicate that, under certain circumstances, the oxidation may proceed at an elevated rate with additional heat generated from the oxidation reaction itself. Under postulated conditions of fluid flow and temperature, excessive degradation of the lower plenum graphite can lead to a loss of structural support. Excessive oxidation of core graphite can also lead to the release of fission products into the confinement, which could be detrimental to a reactor safety. Computational fluid dynamic model developed in this study will improve our understanding of this phenomenon. This paper presents two-dimensional and three-dimensional CFD results for the quantitative assessment of the air ingress phenomena. A portion of results of the density-driven stratified flow in the inlet pipe will be compared with results of the experimental results.

  7. CFD Analyses of Air-Ingress Accident for VHTRs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Tae Kyu

    The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is one of six proposed Generation-IV concepts for the next generation of nuclear powered plants. The VHTR is advantageous because it is able to operate at very high temperatures, thus producing highly efficient electrical generation and hydrogen production. A critical safety event of the VHTR is a loss-of-coolant accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. Following the depressurization process, the air (i.e., the air and helium mixture) in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core causing an air-ingress event. In the event of air-ingress into the reactor core, the high-temperature in-core graphite structures will chemically react with the air and could lose their structural integrity. We designed a 1/8th scaled-down test facility to develop an experimental database for studying the mechanisms involved in the air-ingress phenomenon. The current research focuses on the analysis of the air-ingress phenomenon using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool ANSYS FLUENT for better understanding of the air-ingress phenomenon. The anticipated key steps in the air-ingress scenario for guillotine break of VHTR cross vessel are: 1) depressurization; 2) density-driven stratified flow; 3) local hot plenum natural circulation; 4) diffusion into the reactor core; and 5) global natural circulation. However, the OSU air-ingress test facility covers the time from depressurization to local hot plenum natural circulation. Prior to beginning the CFD simulations for the OSU air-ingress test facility, benchmark studies for the mechanisms which are related to the air-ingress accident, were performed to decide the appropriate physical models for the accident analysis. In addition, preliminary experiments were performed with a simplified 1/30th scaled down acrylic set-up to understand the air-ingress

  8. Analysis on the Density Driven Air-Ingress Accident in VHTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Air-ingress following the pipe rupture is considered to be the most serious accident in the VHTRs due to its potential problems such as core heat-up, structural integrity and toxic gas release. Previously, it has been believed that the main air-ingress mechanism of this accident is the molecular diffusion process between the reactor core and the cavity. However, according to some recent studies, there is another fast air-ingress process that has not been considered before. It is called density-driven stratified flow. The potential for density-driven stratified air ingress into the VHTR following a large-break LOCA was first described in the NGNP Methods Technical Program based on stratified flow studies performed with liquid. Studies on densitygradient driven stratified flow in advanced reactor systems has been the subject of active research for well over a decade since density-gradient dominated stratified flow is an inherent characteristic of passive systems used in advanced reactors. Recently, Oh et al. performed a CFD analysis on the stratified flow in the VHTR, and showed that this effect can significantly accelerate the air-ingress process in the VHTRs. They also proposed to replace the original air-ingress scenario based on the molecular diffusion with the one based on the stratified flow. This paper is focusing on the effect of stratified flow on the results of the air-ingress accident in VHTR

  9. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  10. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, Yassin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-06

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  11. STUDY ON AIR INGRESS MITIGATION METHODS IN THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURE GAS COOLED REACTOR (VHTR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh

    2011-03-01

    An air-ingress accident followed by a pipe break is considered as a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR). Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that unless countermeasures are taken, air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure. Thus, without mitigation features, this accident might lead to severe exothermic chemical reactions of graphite and oxygen. Under extreme circumstances, a loss of core structural integrity may occur along with excessive release of radiological inventory. Idaho National Laboratory under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy is performing research and development (R&D) that focuses on key phenomena important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the VHTR. Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) studies to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important (Oh et al. 2006, Schultz et al. 2006). Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation (V&V) requirements are part of the experimental validation plan. This paper discusses about various air-ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air-ingress accident by using a root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air-ingress mitigation ideas can be conceptually derived. The main concepts include (1) preventing structural degradation of graphite supporters; (2) preventing local stress concentration in the supporter; (3) preventing graphite oxidation; (4) preventing air ingress; (5) preventing density gradient driven flow; (4) preventing fluid density gradient; (5) preventing fluid temperature gradient; (6) preventing high temperature. Based on the basic concepts listed above, various air-ingress

  12. CFD analysis of air ingress distribution during mid-loop accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The accident management approach affects nuclear technology and safety with a new formulation of basic hypotheses for the evaluation of the Source Term and radiological impact on the population due to Fission Product release following Severe Accidents. Considering also the wide spectrum of hypothetical and low probability accident scenarios having these kind of consequences, the sequences having potential for air ingress into the reactor coolant system or involving the interaction between fuel and air, which can flow into the reactor coolant system from the containment, have recently gained more and more interest. The research activities summarised in this paper have been carried out at the Department of Mechanical, Nuclear and Production Engineering of Pisa University, in the frame of an international Project of the IV European Community Framework Programme. The activity included a review of the spectrum of accident sequences to be considered for the investigation of the air ingress probability, the behaviour and the effects of air ingress into the reactor core. Two classes of scenarios were identified for a more in-depth analysis: (a) mid-loop sequences, and (b) scenarios including vessel melt-through. In this frame, mid-loop sequences, having more probabilistic interest than vessel melt-through scenarios, have been investigated by using 3D analytical tools (i.e. Fluent V5.0 fluid-dynamic code). (author)

  13. Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockers, Roland; Bouffard, Patrick; Ma, Jeremy; Matthies, Larry; Tomlin, Claire

    2011-01-01

    Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

  14. Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Ho Oh; Eung Soo Kim; Hee Cheon No; Nam Zin Cho

    2008-12-01

    The US Department of Energy is performing research and development (R&D) that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Program / GEN-IV Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). Phenomena identification and ranking studies (PIRT) to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important (Schultz et al., 2006). Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation (V&V) are very high priority for the NGNP program. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization, air will enter the core through the break. Air ingress leads to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. The oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will cause the release of fission products eventually. The potential collapse of the bottom reflector because of burn-off and the release of CO lead to serious safety problems. For estimation of the proper safety margin we need experimental data and tools, including accurate multi-dimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. We also need to develop effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods R&D project. This project is focused on (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the bottom reflector, (d) structural tests of the burnt-off bottom reflector, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i

  15. CFD analyses of flow structures in air-ingress and rod bundle problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hong-Chan

    Two topics from nuclear engineering field are included in this dissertation. One study is the air-ingress phenomenon during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, and the other is a 5-by-5 bundle assembly with a PWR design. The objectives were to investigate the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of the gravity-driven stratified flows inside a coaxial pipe and the effects caused by two types of spacers at the downstream of the rod bundle. Richardson extrapolation was used for the grid independent study. The simulation results show good agreements with the experiments. Wavelet analysis and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) were used to study the flow behaviors and flow patterns. For the air-ingress phenomenon, Brunt-Vaisala frequency, or buoyancy frequency, predicts a frequency of 2.34 Hz; this is confirmed by the dominant frequency of 2.4 Hz obtained from the wavelet analysis between times 1.2 s and 1.85 s. For the rod bundle study, the dominant frequency at the center of the subchannel was determined to be 2.4 Hz with a secondary dominant frequency of 4 Hz and a much minor frequency of 6 Hz. Generally, wavelet analysis has much better performance than POD, in the air-ingress phenomenon, for a strongly transient scenario; they are both appropriate for the rod bundle study. Based on this study, when the fluid pair in a real condition is used, the time which air intrudes into the reactor is predictable.

  16. FINAL REPORT on Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Hee C. NO; Nam Z. Cho

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Generation IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking studies to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification & validation are of very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air ingress will occur through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. This study indicates that depending on the location and the size of the pipe break, the air ingress phenomena are different. In an effort to estimate the proper safety margin, experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model are required. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation, eventually. This 3-year project (FY 2008–FY 2010) is focused on various issues related to the VHTR air-ingress accident, including (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) structural tests of the oxidized core bottom structures, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i) verification and validation of the coupled models.

  17. Implications of Air Ingress Induced by Density-Difference Driven Stratified Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the design basis accidents for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), a high temperature gas-cooled reactor, is air ingress subsequent to a pipe break. Following a postulated double-ended guillotine break in the hot duct, and the subsequent depressurization to nearly reactor cavity pressure levels, air present in the reactor cavity will enter the reactor vessel via density-gradient-driven-stratified flow. Because of the significantly higher molecular weight and lower initial temperature of the reactor cavity air-helium mixture, in contrast to the helium in the reactor vessel, the air-helium mixture in the cavity always has a larger density than the helium discharging from the reactor vessel through the break into the reactor cavity. In the later stages of the helium blowdown, the momentum of the helium flow decreases sufficiently for the heavier cavity air-helium mixture to intrude into the reactor vessel lower plenum through the lower portion of the break. Once it has entered, the heavier gas will pool at the bottom of the lower plenum. From there it will move upwards into the core via diffusion and density-gradient effects that stem from heating the air-helium mixture and from the pressure differences between the reactor cavity and the reactor vessel. This scenario (considering density-gradient-driven stratified flow) is considerably different from the heretofore commonly used scenario that attributes movement of air into the reactor vessel and from thence to the core region via diffusion. When density-gradient-driven stratified flow is considered as a contributing phenomena for air ingress into the reactor vessel, the following factors contribute to a much earlier natural circulation-phase in the reactor vessel: (a) density-gradient-driven stratified flow is a much more rapid mechanism (at least one order of magnitude) for moving air into the reactor vessel lower plenum than diffusion, and consequently, (b) the diffusion dominated phase begins with a

  18. Implications of Air Ingress Induced by Density-Difference Driven Stratified Flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Oh; Eung Soo Kim; Richard Schultz; David Petti; C. P. Liou

    2008-06-01

    One of the design basis accidents for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), a high temperature gas-cooled reactor, is air ingress subsequent to a pipe break. Following a postulated double-ended guillotine break in the hot duct, and the subsequent depressurization to nearly reactor cavity pressure levels, air present in the reactor cavity will enter the reactor vessel via density-gradient-driven-stratified flow. Because of the significantly higher molecular weight and lower initial temperature of the reactor cavity air-helium mixture, in contrast to the helium in the reactor vessel, the air-helium mixture in the cavity always has a larger density than the helium discharging from the reactor vessel through the break into the reactor cavity. In the later stages of the helium blowdown, the momentum of the helium flow decreases sufficiently for the heavier cavity air-helium mixture to intrude into the reactor vessel lower plenum through the lower portion of the break. Once it has entered, the heavier gas will pool at the bottom of the lower plenum. From there it will move upwards into the core via diffusion and density-gradient effects that stem from heating the air-helium mixture and from the pressure differences between the reactor cavity and the reactor vessel. This scenario (considering density-gradient-driven stratified flow) is considerably different from the heretofore commonly used scenario that attributes movement of air into the reactor vessel and from thence to the core region via diffusion. When density-gradient-driven stratified flow is considered as a contributing phenomena for air ingress into the reactor vessel, the following factors contribute to a much earlier natural circulation-phase in the reactor vessel: (a) density-gradient-driven stratified flow is a much more rapid mechanism (at least one order of magnitude) for moving air into the reactor vessel lower plenum than diffusion, and consequently, (b) the diffusion dominated phase begins with a

  19. Investigation of Countercurrent Helium-Air Flows in Air-ingress Accidents for VHTRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard; Oh, Chang

    2013-10-03

    The primary objective of this research is to develop an extensive experimental database for the air- ingress phenomenon for the validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. This research is intended to be a separate-effects experimental study. However, the project team will perform a careful scaling analysis prior to designing a scaled-down test facility in order to closely tie this research with the real application. As a reference design in this study, the team will use the 600 MWth gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) developed by General Atomic. In the test matrix of the experiments, researchers will vary the temperature and pressure of the helium— along with break size, location, shape, and orientation—to simulate deferent scenarios and to identify potential mitigation strategies. Under support of the Department of Energy, a high-temperature helium test facility has been designed and is currently being constructed at Ohio State University, primarily for high- temperature compact heat exchanger testing for the VHTR program. Once the facility is in operation (expected April 2009), this study will utilize high-temperature helium up to 900°C and 3 MPa for loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) depressurization and air-ingress experiments. The project team will first conduct a scaling study and then design an air-ingress test facility. The major parameter to be measured in the experiments is oxygen (or nitrogen) concentration history at various locations following a LOCA scenario. The team will use two measurement techniques: 1) oxygen (or similar type) sensors employed in the flow field, which will introduce some undesirable intrusiveness, disturbing the flow, and 2) a planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) imaging technique, which has no physical intrusiveness to the flow but requires a transparent window or test section that the laser beam can penetrate. The team will construct two test facilities, one for high-temperature helium tests with

  20. Results of the QUENCH-10 air ingress test using ATHLET-CD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In case of a postulated breakdown of the main and the emergency cooling systems during a loss of cooling accident in light water reactors, severe core damage or even core degradation is possible. To avoid the total melting of the core, the uncovered and overheated core has to be cooled, i. e. by flooding with water. In the framework of the QUENCH programme at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK) the behaviour of fuel rod bundles during reflood scenarios is investigated. A specific focus lays on the hydrogen generation due to the exothermal zirconium-steam-reaction during the quench phase, but additionally B44C oxidation as well as air ingress is investigated. Based on the post-test calculations of the QUENCH tests with the severe accident code ATHLET-CD the capability of the code can be established and evaluated. In the following the post-test calculation of the experiment QUENCH-10 with ATHLET-CD 2.1A is presented and discussed. The QUENCH-10 test was performed on the 21st of July 2004 at FZK in the framework of the EC-supported LACOMERA programme to improve the knowledge of the phenomena during an air ingress scenario with the objective to observe the oxidation and nitride formation processes and to investigate the bundle behaviour during the subsequent quenching by water. A postulated loss of heat removal in a spent fuel pool or loss of coolant accident in a reactor application could lead to the evaporation of the water in the pool and the degradation of the fuel assemblies by air ingress which could lead to fission product release from the degraded core. (orig.)

  1. Results of the QUENCH-10 air ingress test using ATHLET-CD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollands, Thorsten; Drath, Tilman; Wagner, Hermann-Josef; Koch, Marco K. [Bochum Univ. (RUB) (DE). Lehrstuhl fuer Energiesysteme und Energiewirtschaft (LEE)

    2008-07-01

    In case of a postulated breakdown of the main and the emergency cooling systems during a loss of cooling accident in light water reactors, severe core damage or even core degradation is possible. To avoid the total melting of the core, the uncovered and overheated core has to be cooled, i. e. by flooding with water. In the framework of the QUENCH programme at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK) the behaviour of fuel rod bundles during reflood scenarios is investigated. A specific focus lays on the hydrogen generation due to the exothermal zirconium-steam-reaction during the quench phase, but additionally B{sub 4}4C oxidation as well as air ingress is investigated. Based on the post-test calculations of the QUENCH tests with the severe accident code ATHLET-CD the capability of the code can be established and evaluated. In the following the post-test calculation of the experiment QUENCH-10 with ATHLET-CD 2.1A is presented and discussed. The QUENCH-10 test was performed on the 21{sup st} of July 2004 at FZK in the framework of the EC-supported LACOMERA programme to improve the knowledge of the phenomena during an air ingress scenario with the objective to observe the oxidation and nitride formation processes and to investigate the bundle behaviour during the subsequent quenching by water. A postulated loss of heat removal in a spent fuel pool or loss of coolant accident in a reactor application could lead to the evaporation of the water in the pool and the degradation of the fuel assemblies by air ingress which could lead to fission product release from the degraded core. (orig.)

  2. Simulation of the air ingress experiment parameter SF4 using ATHLET-CD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The air ingress test PARAMETER SF4 was performed in July 2009 with the aim to investigate the behavior of a VVER bundle during reflooding after air ingress. Simulations are performed using the severe accident code ATHLET-CD. The results of the simulations show a good agreement in comparison to the experimental data during the pre-oxidation phase and in most bundle regions also during air ingress. The hydrogen generation is very close to the experimental data up to the beginning of quenching; afterwards the total amount of H2 is underpredicted. Further improvement can be achieved by using a model to consider ZrN formation. (author)

  3. Validations of CFD Code for Density-Gradient Driven Air Ingress Stratified Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Air ingress into a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) is an important phenomena to consider because the air oxidizes the reactor core and lower plenum where the graphite structure supports the core region in the gas turbine modular helium reactor (GTMHR) design, thus jeopardizing the reactor's safety. Validating the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code used to analyze the air ingress phenomena is therefore an essential part of the safety analysis and the ultimate computation required for licensing.

  4. FY-09 Report: Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2009-12-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Gen-IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have identified that an air ingress event following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization is a very important incident. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. If this accident occurs, the oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will eventually cause the release of fission products. The potential collapse of the core bottom structures causing the release of CO and fission products is one of the concerns. Therefore, experimental validation with the analytical model and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model developed in this study is very important. Estimating the proper safety margin will require experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods Research and Development project. The second year of this three-year project (FY-08 to FY-10) was focused on (a) the analytical, CFD, and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow; (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments and modeling; (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) implementation of advanced

  5. Feasibility study on naturally safe HTGR (NSHTR) for air ingress accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new design activity for an advanced reactor, referred to as a naturally safe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (NSHTR), has been launched by authors after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The concept of NSHTR is that the release of radioactive materials is kept at very low level and no harmful effect on people and the environment is ensured by only physical phenomena even in the absence of engineered safety features. At an air ingress accident, possible physical events that lead to the loss or degradation of the confinement function of the fuel-coating layers are the crack of the coatings caused by the explosion of carbon monoxide (CO) produced by the graphite oxidation and failure of the coatings by melting or sublimation caused by core heat up due to the reaction heat of the graphite oxidation. In this study, the CO concentration and the heat generated by graphite oxidation inside the circular tube were evaluated parametrically using a steady-state one-dimensional model to confirm the feasibility of NSHTR at a severe condition of the air ingress accident (i.e., a massive air ingress by simultaneous rupture of two primary pipes). It was confirmed that the CO concentration at the outlet of coolant channel can be maintained below the explosion limit due to the reaction with oxygen in the air, and the reaction heat can be removed with the decay heat by physical phenomena under certain conditions of the coolant channel geometry without any engineered safety features. The results revealed that the design of NSHTR is technically feasible in terms of the suppression of the CO explosion and the heat removal of the reaction heat at the air ingress accident

  6. Computational Fluid Dynamics Analyses on Very High Temperature Reactor Air Ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A preliminary computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed to understand density-gradient-induced stratified flow in a Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) air-ingress accident. Various parameters were taken into consideration, including turbulence model, core temperature, initial air mole-fraction, and flow resistance in the core. The gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) 600 MWt was selected as the reference reactor and it was simplified to be 2-D geometry in modeling. The core and the lower plenum were assumed to be porous bodies. Following the preliminary CFD results, the analysis of the air-ingress accident has been performed by two different codes: GAMMA code (system analysis code, Oh et al. 2006) and FLUENT CFD code (Fluent 2007). Eventually, the analysis results showed that the actual onset time of natural convection (∼160 sec) would be significantly earlier than the previous predictions (∼150 hours) calculated based on the molecular diffusion air-ingress mechanism. This leads to the conclusion that the consequences of this accident will be much more serious than previously expected

  7. Possibility of air ingress into a BWR containment during a LOCA in case of activation of containment venting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The pressure relief systems installed in BWRs protect the containment from overpressure in case of a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). This paper analyzes the possibility of air ingress, which can cause hydrogen burn, through the rupture disks of the filtered and non-filtered venting systems. Two scenarios were considered: a LOCA without SBO (Station Blackout) and a LOCA with SBO. The thermal-hydraulic code GOTHIC® was used with 3D models of the drywell and wetwell of a Nordic-type BWR. In the LOCA event, we found no activation of the rupture disks within the considered transient simulation. Moreover, the containment spray ensured a low pressure in the drywell and induced a continuous mixing of the wetwell pool. In the LOCA with SBO event, the development of thermal stratification in the wetwell pool accelerated the pressure increase in the drywell, which led to activation of the rupture disk of the filtered venting system. However, no air ingress through the vent was found during the depressurization of the containment, and hence no risk of hydrogen burn under the given assumptions. (author)

  8. Oxidation Analyses of Massive Air Ingress Accident of HTR-PM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The double-ended guillotine break (DEGB of the horizontal coaxial gas duct accident is a serious air ingress accident of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor pebble-bed module (HTR-PM. Because the graphite is widely used as the structure material and the fuel element matrix of HTR-PM, the oxidation analyses of this severe air ingress accident have got enough attention in the safety analyses of the HTR-PM. The DEGB of the horizontal coaxial gas duct accident is calculated by using the TINTE code in this paper. The results show that the maximum local oxidation of the matrix graphite of spherical fuel elements in the core will firstly reach 3.75⁎104 mol/m3 at about 120 h, which means that only the outer 5 mm fuel-free zone of matrix graphite will be oxidized out. Even at 150 h, the maximum local weight loss ratio of the nuclear grade graphite in the bottom reflectors is only 0.26. Besides, there is enough time to carry out some countermeasures to stop the air ingress during several days. Therefore, the nuclear grade graphite of the bottom reflectors will not be fractured in the DEGB of the horizontal coaxial gas duct accident and the integrity of the HTR-PM can be guaranteed.

  9. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY: DESCRIPTION AND SUMMARY OF DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2010-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory performed air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics code (CFD). An isothermal stratified flow experiment was designed and set to understand stratified flow phenomena in the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) and to provide experimental data for validating computer codes. The isothermal experiment focused on three flow characteristics unique in the VHTR air-ingress accident: stratified flow in the horizontal pipe, stratified flow expansion at the pipe and vessel junction, and stratified flow around supporting structures. Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids and water was used as light fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between heavy and light fluids is generated even for very small density differences. The code was validated by conducting blind CFD simulations and comparing the results to the experimental data. A grid sensitivity study was also performed based on the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for modeling confidence. As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  10. Air and water ingress accidents in a HTR-modul of side-by-side concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the possibility of a temperature induced release of fission products from the core has been eliminated by the design of the HTR-Modul, the question arose whether corrosion by air can result in a significant release of fission products. Massive air ingress is only possible by natural convection and requires three large leaks in the pressure boundary at suitable positions (chimney effect). Such an event is hardly imaginable, since the occurrence of one leak already eliminates the mechanism for the formation of additional leaks. Nevertheless this highly hypothetical event was considered in order to get knowledge about the behaviour of the system under these extreme conditions. The results show that the maximal degree of corrosion of fuel elements remains low for a long period of time, since the corrosion zone moves through the pebble bed core. A massive release of fission products is significantly delayed, thus plenty of time is available for counter measures. Water ingress accidents proved to be dominant for the risk of a HTR-Modul. This is due to the fact that fission products deposited on the surface of the primary circuit can be remobilized by reaction with water and steam and can be released from the primary circuit via two release paths. One path leads via the relief valve and the ventilation system to the stack, the other via the steam generator leak and the dump line, if a dump line valve fails to close

  11. Separate-effects experiments on the hydrodynamics of air ingress phenomena for the very high temperature reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study performs scaled separate-effects experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics in the air-ingress phenomena following a Depressurized Condition Cooldown in the Very High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. First, a scoping experiment using water and brine is performed. The volumetric exchange rate is measured using a hydrometer, and flow visualizations are performed. Next, Helium-air experiments are performed to obtain three-dimensional oxygen concentration transient data using an oxygen analyzer. It is found that there exists a critical density difference ratio, before which the ingress rate increases linearly with time and after which the ingress rate slows down significantly. In both the water-brine and Helium-air experiments, this critical ratio is found to be approximately 0.7. (author)

  12. Numerical Analysis on Air Ingress Behavior in GTHTR300-Cogeneration System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Tetsuaki; Yan, Xing; Kunitomi, Kazuhiko

    The objective of this study is to clarify safety characteristics of a High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) for the pipe rupture accident. Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has been developing the analytical code for the safety characteristics of the HTGR and carrying out design study of the gas turbine high temperature reactor of 300MWe nominal-capacity for hydrogen production, the GTHTR300C (Gas Turbine High Temperature Reactor 300 for Cogeneration). A numerical analysis of heat and mass transfer fluid flow with multi-component gas mixture has been performed to obtain the variation of the density of the gas mixture, and the onset time of natural circulation of air. From the results obtained in this analysis, it was found that the duration time of the air ingress by molecular diffusion would increase due to the existence of the recuperator in the GTHTR300C system.

  13. Effect of air ingress on the energy performance of coal fired thermal power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ingress of air in boilers leads to drops in energy efficiency. This paper presents the effects of air ingress in the combustion zone, post-combustion zone and air pre-heater (APH) on the energy efficiency and loading capacity of a coal fired thermal power plant operating on fuel with high ash (35-45%). The optimal O2 in the flue gas for a pulverized coal fired system is 3.5% (corresponding to 20% excess air). The operating values are in the range of 4.2-6.0% in membrane type boilers and up to 10% in refractory type boilers (after sustained periods of operation). The leakage rate of boilers (up to the entrance of the APH) is designed at 0.2% while the average operating values are 7.25% for membrane type enclosures and 33.61% for refractory enclosures. The leakage rate of the APH is designed at 5.0% while the operating values range from 13.66% to 20.13% for rotary and tubular APHs. When the O2 in the combustion zone varies from 3.5% to 8.0%, efficiency drops of 2.0% points are experienced in the boiler and turbine separately, and the gross overall efficiency drop is ∼3.0% points. The units do not experience any capacity drop up to an O2 in the flue gas of 6.0% before the APH. At an O2 in the flue gas (before APH) of 7.2%, a mild limitation on the unit capacity of around 2-3% is experienced. When O2 in the flue gas (before APH) reaches a level of 9.0%, 20% capacity drop of the unit is experienced due to which the plant load cannot be raised higher than 80%. Beyond the level of 9.0% (rare occurrence), the unit is quite difficult to operate and has to be taken off for overhaul

  14. Separate-effect tests on zirconium cladding degradation in air ingress situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duriez, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, IRSN, Direction de Prevention des Accidents Majeurs, Centre de Cadarache, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France)], E-mail: christian.duriez@irsn.fr; Steinbrueck, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, FZK, Institut fuer Materialforschung, Postfach 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Ohai, D.; Meleg, T. [Institute for Nuclear Research, INR, Nuclear Material and Corrosion Department, Pitesti, 115400 Mioveni Arges (Romania); Birchley, J.; Haste, T. [Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    In the event of air ingress during a reactor or spent fuel pond low probability accident, the fuel rods will be exposed to air-containing atmospheres at high temperatures. In comparison with steam, the presence of air is expected to result in a more rapid escalation of the accident. A state-of-the-art review performed before SARNET started showed that the existing data on zirconium alloy oxidation in air were scarce. Moreover, the exact role of zirconium nitride on the cladding degradation process was poorly understood. Regarding the cladding behaviour in air + steam or nitrogen-enriched atmospheres (encountered in oxygen-starved conditions), almost no data were available. New experimental programmes comprising small-scale tests have therefore been launched at FZK, IRSN (MOZART programme in the frame of the International Source Term Program-ISTP) and INR. Zircaloy-4 cladding in PWR (FZK, IRSN) and in CANDU (INR) geometry are investigated. On-line kinetic data are obtained on centimetre size tube segments, by thermogravimetry (FZK, IRSN and INR) or by mass spectrometry (FZK). Plugged tubes 15 cm long (FZK) are also investigated. The samples are air-oxidised either in the 'as-received' state, or after pre-oxidation in steam. 'Analytical' tests at constant temperature and gas composition provide basic kinetic data, while more prototypical temperature transients and sequential gas compositions are also investigated. The temperature domains extend from 600 deg. C up to 1500 deg. C. Systematic post-test metallographic inspections are performed. The paper gives a synthesis of the results obtained, comparing them in terms of kinetics and oxide scale structure and composition. A comparative analysis is performed with results of the QUENCH-10 (Q-10) bundle test, which included an air ingress phase. It is shown how the data contribute to a better understanding of the cladding degradation process, especially regarding the role of nitrogen. For modelling of

  15. Estimation of graphite density and mechanical strength variation of VHTR during air-ingress accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An air-ingress accident in a Very High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (VHTR) is anticipated to cause severe changes to graphite density and mechanical strength by an oxidation process that has many side effects. However, quantitative estimations have not yet been performed. This study focuses on predicting the changes in graphite density and mechanical strength via thermal hydraulic system analysis code. In order to analyze the change in graphite density, a simple graphite burn-off model was developed. The model is based on the similarities between a parallel electrical circuit and graphite oxidation. It was used to determine overall changes in the graphite's geometry and density. The model was validated by comparing its results to experimental data that was obtained for several temperatures. In the experiment, cylindrically shaped graphite specimens were oxidized in an electrical furnace and the variations of its mass were measured against time. The experiment's range covered temperatures between 6000 C and 9000 C. Experimental data validated the model's accuracy. Finally, the developed model along with other comprehensive graphite oxidation models was integrated into the VHTR system analysis code, GAMMA. GT-MHR 600 MWt reactor was selected as a reference reactor. Based on the calculation, the main oxidation process was observed 5.5 days after the accident when followed by natural convection. The core maximum temperature reached 16000 C, but never exceeded the maximum temperature criteria, 18000 C. However, the oxidation process did significantly decrease the density of bottom reflector, making it vulnerable to mechanical stress. The stress on the bottom reflector is greatly increased because it sustains the reactor core. The calculation proceeded until 11 days after the accident, resulting in an observed 4.5% decrease in density and a 25% reduction of mechanical strength

  16. CDF modeling of flow and transport processes in the reactor core of a modular high temperature reactor during an air ingress accident; CFD-Modellierung der Stroemungs- und Transportprozesse im Reaktorkern eines modularen Hochtemperaturreaktors waehrend eines Lufteinbruchstoerfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baggemann, Johannes

    2015-05-22

    Generation IV of reactor design is supposed to include inherent safety systems that allow accident management using passive processes (without external energy). The VTR (very high temperature reactor) is graphite moderated with helium cooling. The design concept assumes that in any operational situation the after heat is removed by thermal conduction and radiation. Air ingress is beyond-design accident assuming a leak in the primary circuit triggering oxygen reaction with the hot graphite that could damage the barriers for fission product release. Using 3D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) codes the air ingress scenario is simulated, the flow and transport processes in the reactor core are analyzed. For validation of the modeling heat transport processes were investigated in specific test facilities.

  17. Analysis of diffusion process and influence factors in the air ingress accident of the HTR-PM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Air ingress, one of the beyond design basis accidents for high temperature gas-cooled reactors, receives high attention during the design of the 250 MW pebble-bed modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), because it may result in severe consequence including the corrosion of the fuel element and graphite reflector. The diffusion process and the set-up time of the stable natural convection after the double-ended guillotine break of the hot-gas duct are studied in the paper. On the basis of the preliminary design of the HTR-PM and its DLOCA analysis results, the diffusion process, as well as the influence of the core temperature distribution and the length of the hot-gas duct, is studied with the DIFFLOW code, which adopts a one-dimension variable cross-section diffusion model with fixed wall temperature. To preliminarily estimate the influence of chemical reaction between oxygen and graphite, which will change the gas component of the mixture, the diffusion processes between the He/N2, He/O2, He/CO and He/CO2 are calculated, respectively. Furthermore, the code has been improved and the varying wall temperature can be simulated. The more accurate analysis is carried out with the changing temperature distribution from the DLOCA calculation. The analysis shows that there is enough time to adopt appropriate mitigation measures to stop the air ingress and the severe consequence of fuel element damage and large release of fission product can be avoided

  18. Status of modelling of the nitrogen reaction during air-ingress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollands, Thorsten; Koch, Marco K. [Bochum Univ. (Germany). Reaktorsimulation und -sicherheit

    2009-07-01

    In case of a postulated accident in a nuclear facility air can be in contact with the fuel rods mainly in the following three cases [1]: 1. loss of coolant accident (late phase after reactor pressure vessel failure or in mid loop operation), 2. spent fuel pool accident or 3. spent fuel storage cask break. In these cases the two main components of the air - oxygen and nitrogen - can react with the cladding material zirconium to zirconia and zircon nitride. Both reactions are exothermal, but the heat by the reaction with oxygen is nearly three times higher than the heat from the nitride formation. The zirconia formation will be first by water or steam, because of the affinity of metals like zirconium to react with oxygen and this process was estimated as the leading process and is mainly understood for the current cladding material Zircaloy-4 right now. Only in cases of local or global oxygen starvation the nitride formation takes place. Because of the impact on the cladding material structure and its further behaviour in case of a severe accident, the consideration of the nitrogen is necessary to calculate the physical behaviour of the core correctly in severe accident system codes like ATHLET-CD [2]. Therefore the knowledge of the physical process of the nitride formation has to be improved. Detailed analyses of the nitride formation show, that there are two main phenomena which have to be considered. On the one hand the reaction of pure nitrogen with zirconium is weak and mainly based on impurities of the metal in a binary system. On the other hand the nitride formation increases in case of a ternary system of Zr-O-N. In this case the existing ZrO{sub 2} layer on the metal has a dominant influence, because the nitrogen reacts with defects in the ZrO{sub 2-x} layer or under oxygen starvation conditions at the phase boundary between Zr and ZrO{sub 2} [3]. (orig.)

  19. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents - Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In an accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium can oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species it is of interest to know, how it is formed and how it behaves. In our experiments RuO2 is exposed to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. In this report, the experimental system for the ruthenium behaviour study is presented. Also preliminary results from experiments carried out during year 2005 are reported. In the experiments gaseous ruthenium oxides were produced in a furnace. Upon cooling RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed with plane filters from the gas stream. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution three experiment using radioactive tracer were carried out. (au)

  20. Containment Performance Evaluation of a Sodium Fire Event Due to Air Ingress into the Cover Gas Region of the Reactor Vessel in the PGSFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comparing with the light water reactor, sodium as a reactor coolant violently reacts with oxygen in the containment atmosphere. Due to this chemical reaction, heat generated from the combustion heat increases the temperature and pressure in the containment atmosphere. The structural integrity of the containment building which is a final radiological defense barrier is threaten. A sodium fire event in the containment due to air ingress into the cover gas region in the reactor vessel is classified as one of the design basis events in the PGSFR. This event comes from a leak or crack on the reactor upper closure header surface. It accompanys an event of the radiological fission products release to the inside the containment. In this paper, evaluation for the sodium fire and radiological influence due to air ingress into the cover gas region of the reactor vessel is described. To evaluate this event, the CONTAIN-LMR, MACCS-II and OR-IGEN-II codes are used. For the sodium pool fire event in the containment, the performance evaluation and radiological influence are carried out. In the thermal hydraulic aspects, the 1 cell containment yields the most conservative result. In this event, the maximum temperature and pressure in the containment are calculated 0.185 MPa, 280.0 .deg. C, respectively. The radiological dose at the EAB and LPZ are below the acceptance criteria specified in the 10CFR100

  1. Generating scenarios to predict air quality impact in public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, J.M.; Coelho, L.M.R.; Gouveia, C.; Cerdeira, R. [Escola Superior de Tecnologia de Setubal (EST-IPS), Setubal (Portugal); Ferreira, T.; Baptista, M.N. [Hospital Na. Sa. do Rosario, Servico de Pediatria, Barreiro (Portugal)

    2004-07-01

    This study intends to associate air quality with public health by generating air quality scenarios, under different future perspectives in Barreiro. This city is located in middle south of Portugal nearby Lisbon and it has a large resident population, an important industrial area and intense traffic. In this study ADMS-urban was used to simulate the possible scenarios of future air quality in this city, taking into consideration the probable city development and future activities. Special attention was given to the future evolutions of traffic, industrial activities, demographical and geographical expansion. The new EU directives about air quality and the CAFE program were also considered. To correlate the impact of the future air quality of the city and public health, a children population sample was used. This study team is also composed by paediatric doctors from Hospital N{sup a}. S{sup a}. do Rosario that contribute with public health information and helped to identify air quality related diseases. (orig.)

  2. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash in...

  3. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Butler

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway" emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

  4. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Butler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP (''Representative Concentration Pathway'' emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18 and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  5. Oxidation kinetics of innovative carbon materials with respect to severe air ingress accidents in HTRs and graphite disposal or processing; Oxidationskinetik innovativer Kohlenstoffmaterialien hinsichtlich schwerer Lufteinbruchstoerfaelle in HTR's und Graphitentsorgung oder Aufbereitung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schloegel, Baerbel

    2010-07-01

    Currently future nuclear reactor concepts of the Fourth Generation (Gen IV) are under development. To some extend they apply with new, innovative materials developed just for this purpose. This thesis work aims at a concept of Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR) in the framework of the European project RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation). The concept named ANTARES (AREVA New Technology based on advanced gas-cooled Reactors for Energy Supply) was developed by AEVA NP. It is a helium cooled, graphite moderated modular reactor for electricity and hydrogen production, by providing the necessary process heat due to its high working temperature. Particular attention is given here to oxidation kinetics of newly developed carbon materials (NBG-17) with still unknown but needed information in context of severe air ingress accident in VHTR's. Special interest is paid to the Boudouard reaction, the oxidation of carbon by CO{sub 2}. In case of an air ingress accident, carbon dioxide is produced in the primary reaction of atmospheric oxygen with reflector graphite. From there CO{sub 2} could flow into the reactor core causing further damage by conversion into CO. The purpose of this thesis is to ascertain if and to what degree this could happen. First of all oxidation kinetic data of the Boudouard reaction with NBG-17 is determined by experiments in a thermo gravimetric facility. The measurements are evaluated and converted into a common formula and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood similar oxidation kinetic equation, as input for the computer code REACT/THERMIX. This code is then applied to analyse severe air ingress accidents for several air flow rates. The results are discussed for two accident situations, in which a certain graphite burn off is achieved. All cases show much more damage to the graphite bottom reflector than to the reactor core. Thus the bottom reflector will lose its structural integrity much earlier than the

  6. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    to meet the increasingly intricate demands of both advanced air quality models and more realistic and relevant policy scenarios.

  7. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  8. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  9. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Hansen, Per Freiesleben; Coats, Alison M.;

    1999-01-01

    In this paper chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar is followed by electron probe microanalysis. The influence of several paste and exposure parameters on chloride ingress are examined (e.g., water-cement ratio, silica fume addition, exposure time, and temperature), The measurements...

  10. Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project - Information Management System (WWIPIMS), South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hild, S.; Sieste, M.; Barth, A.; Rudinskaya, J. [Beak Consultants GmbH, Freiberg (Germany); Croukamp, L.; Roos, M. [Council for Geoscience (CGS), Pretoria (South Africa)

    2006-07-01

    The Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project at the Council for Geoscience, South Africa (CGS) deals with an inventory, a risk assessment and the development of rehabilitation strategies for abandoned mining sites in the Witwatersrand Mining Basin. The main focus is the prevention of water ingress and to understand the future decanting scenario. An Information Management System consisting of both a relational database and an application for the Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project is established for accessing and managing all project-related data. This easy to use application makes the data available to all staff at the CGS via several modules as well as a GIS-component for accessing and querying spatial data. This will enable the scientists to derive further knowledge of the water flowing processes by directly using all of the existing up-to-date data. Many additional functions, such as the support for map printing on demand, extensive possibilities for inquiries, data import and export, diagrams and a GIS-viewer for spatial inquiries do complete the system. (orig.)

  11. European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.

  12. Air Quality Improvements of Increased Integration of Renewables: Solar Photovoltaics Penetration Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran, P.; Holloway, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.; Littlefield, C. M.

    2011-12-01

    Solar photovoltaics (PV) are an attractive technology because they can be locally deployed and tend to yield high production during periods of peak electric demand. These characteristics can reduce the need for conventional large-scale electricity generation, thereby reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and improving ambient air quality with regard to such pollutants as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and fine particulates. Such effects depend on the local climate, time-of-day emissions, available solar resources, the structure of the electric grid, and existing electricity production among other factors. This study examines the air quality impacts of distributed PV across the United States Eastern Interconnection. In order to accurately model the air quality impact of distributed PV in space and time, we used the National Renewable Energy Lab's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to form three unique PV penetration scenarios in which new PV construction is distributed spatially based upon economic drivers and natural solar resources. Those scenarios are 2006 Eastern Interconnection business as usual, 10% PV penetration, and 20% PV penetration. With the GridView (ABB, Inc) dispatch model, we used historical load data from 2006 to model electricity production and distribution for each of the three scenarios. Solar PV electric output was estimated using historical weather data from 2006. To bridge the gap between dispatch and air quality modeling, we will create emission profiles for electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Eastern Interconnection from historical Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data. Via those emissions profiles, we will create hourly emission data for EGUs in the Eastern Interconnect for each scenario during 2006. Those data will be incorporated in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. Initial results indicate that PV

  13. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  14. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-08-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  15. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  16. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  17. Evaluation of pressure response in the Los Alamos controlled air incinerator during three incident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Los Alamos Controlled Air Incinerator (CAI) is a system designed to accept radioactive mixed waste containing alpha-emitting radionuclides. A mathematical model was developed to predict the pressure response throughout the offgas treatment system of the CAI during three hypothetical incident scenarios. The scenarios examined included: (1) loss of burner flame and failure of the flame safeguard system with subsequent reignition of fuel gas in the primary chamber, (2) pyrolytic gas buildup from a waste package due to loss of induced draft and subsequent restoration of induced draft, and (3) accidental charging of propellant spray cans in a solid waste package to the primary chamber during a normal feed cycle. For each of the three scenarios, the finite element computer model was able to determine the transient pressure surge and decay response throughout the system. Of particular interest were the maximum absolute pressures attainable at critical points in the system as well as maximum differential pressures across the high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters. Modeling results indicated that all three of the scenarios resulted in maximum HEPA filter differential pressures well below the maximum allowable levels

  18. Finnish air traffic until 2025. Four scenarios; Suomen lentoliikenne vuoteen 2025 - neljae skenaariota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aalto, E.; Pollanen, M.; Mantynen, J.; Makela, T.; Rauhamaki, H. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland). Transport Research Centre Verne

    2012-07-01

    Air traffic is a very dynamic field of business. Its operating environment features multiple factors of change, which affect air traffic and its operators both in the short and in the long run. This study charts the significant factors in Finnish air traffic and creates four distinct scenarios for the future. These scenarios were produced on the basis of the currently available facts and are attempts to provide several alternatives for the future. The study's goal has been to produce a visionary depiction that helps one to visualise and understand the whole picture. The perspective chosen for consideration of the future is the year 2025. The study describes four scenarios differing clearly from each other. In the first, entitled Globaalista maailmasta blokkeihin (From a global world to blocs), states form clusters and regional co-operation takes precedence over the current global direction of development. The second, Eurooppa omalla reitillaeaen (Europe on its own way), depicts Europe ahead of the rest of the world in terms of environmental regulation for air traffic. Uudistuksilla talouskukoistukseen (Economic boom through reforms) is based on an optimistic economic outlook. In contrast, Oeljykriisistae taloustaantumaan (From oil crisis to recession), describes a world where economic growth has been forestalled by rising oil prices due to increasing scarcity. The study investigates passenger numbers, air traffic within Finland, the international route network, and the changes these display in the various scenarios. The estimates are designed to highlight the development trends affecting air traffic in different operating environments. Since Finland is a small country and set apart from the rest of Europe in a fashion similar to island states, air traffic is of major importance and cannot be efficiently replaced by other forms of traffic. In particular, the individual scenarios stress the impact of international interaction and economic development with regard

  19. Googles Augmented-Reality-Game "Ingress"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl H. Stingeder

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Das an das "Geocoaching"-Spielprinzip erinnernde Augmented-­Reality-Game "Ingress" ist auf allen mit Android-Betriebssystem ausgestatteten Smartphones spielbar. Das Alleinstellungsmerkmal des Spiels ist gleich­zeitig auch das beste Patent-Rezept für bzw. gegen notorisches "Couch-Potato-ing": Das Game-Design des "Draußenspiels" erfordert jedoch stets die physische Anwesenheit der SpielerInnen am realen Ort des Geschehens, meist touristisch attraktive Sehenswürdigkeiten und architektonisch markante Plätze. Sobald "Ingress" per App am Smart­phone gestartet wird, stehen Interaktionen und Machtverhältnisse auf dem Handy-Display im Dreh- und Angelpunkt des Geschehens. Die Spielgrafik ist auf das Wesentliche reduziert und erinnert an die Optik von Videospielen der 80er Jahre. "Ingress" im Allgemeinen sowie "Magnus13", die erste von Google organisierte Fan-Veranstaltung Österreichs mit mehreren Hundert TeilnehmerInnen und ist mit einer "digitalen Schnitzeljagd" vergleichbar: Gemeinsam ist der klassischen "Schnitzeljagd" und dem digitalen "Schere-Schein-Papier" Prinzip von "Ingress" die tragende Rolle des im Spiel entstehenden Gemeinschaftsgefühls, welche in einer hohen Langzeitmotivation mündet. Trotz aller Euphorie, ob des unkonventionellen Augmented-Reality-Spielkonzepts und des in Folge der sozialen Dynamik außergewöhnlichen Sucht­potentials, ist angesichts von Edward Snowden und vielfältiger NSA-Abhörmaßnahmen, eine gesunde Portion Skepsis angebracht: Welchen Zweck erfüllt "Ingress"? Gibt es ein verhülltes "Mittel zum Zweck"? Welche Gefahren bestehen mit einer systematischen Auswertung des umfangreichen, ortsrelevanten Daten-Sammelsuriums? "Ingress" verdeutlicht trotz aller Risiken den soziokulturellen Bedeutungswandel des digitalen Spiels: Spiele per se und das Spiel als soziale Interaktion sind aktuell dabei, alle Bereiche unseres Lebens zu erfassen.

  20. Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH4. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO2, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NOx and SO2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

  1. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  2. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Hansen, Per Freiesleben; Coats, Alison M.;

    1999-01-01

    modelled on Fick's law modified by a term for chloride binding. Inclusion of chloride binding significantly improves the profile shape of the modelled ingress profiles. The presence of fine aggregate and formation of interfacial transition zones at paste-aggregate boundaries does not significantly affect...

  3. Assessment of NGNP Moisture Ingress Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bill Landman

    2011-04-01

    An assessment of modular HTGR moisture ingress events, making use of a phenomena identification and ranking process, was conducted by a panel of experts in the related areas for the U.S. next generation nuclear plant (NGNP) design. Consideration was given mainly to the prismatic core gas-cooled reactor configurations incorporating a steam generator within the primary circuit.

  4. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2016-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012-2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of-pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  5. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  6. Modeled effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution, health and societal costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bønløkke, Jakob Hjort; Holst, Gitte Juel; Sigsgaard, Torben;

    2015-01-01

    Background: In Europe a substantial share of the energy supply is used for domestic heating and cooling. The quality of building insulation thus significantly impacts air pollution. Objectives: To model the effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution levels and ...

  7. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  8. Measuring Method of Moisture Ingress into Photovoltaic Modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyashita, Masanori; Kawai, Shinji; Masuda, Atsushi

    2012-10-01

    The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules is related to the ingress of moisture in some cases. We investigated the measurement method of moisture ingress into PV modules. In order to detect the moisture ingress route into the module, cobalt chloride (CoCl2) paper was used. The change in the color of CoCl2 paper is effective in detecting and quantifying moisture ingress. The results suggested that the main route of moisture ingress is along the back material and moisture gradually diffuses to the center of the cell. The rate of moisture ingress into the PV module depends on the water-vapor transmission rate (WVTR) of the back material. The amount of moisture estimated from a calibration curve is correlated to the amount of moisture calculated from the WVTR of the back material.

  9. The study on water ingress mass in the steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture accident of modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture (SGTR) accident is an important and particular accident which will result in water ingress to the primary loop of reactor. Water ingress will result in chemical reaction of graphite fuel and structure with water, which may cause overpressure due to generation of explosive gaseous in large quantity. The study on the water ingress accident is significant for the verification of the inherent characteristics of high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The previous research shows that the amount of water ingress mass is the dominant key factor on the severity of the accident consequence. The 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), which is the first modular pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactor in China designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, is selected to be analyzed in this paper. The different DBA accident scenarios of double-ended break of single heat-exchange tube are simulated respectively by the thermal-hydraulic analysis code RETRAN-02. The results show the water ingress mass through the broken heat-exchange tube is related to the break location. The amount of water ingress mass is affected obviously by the capacity of the emptier system. With the balance of safety and economical efficiency, the amount of water ingress mass from the secondary side of steam generator into the primary coolant loop will be reduced by increasing properly the diameter of the draining lines. (authors)

  10. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  11. Information from water ingress accident on AVR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An ingress of water occurred in the AVR reactor in May 1978. The reactor had been shut down and cooled by forced circulation; liquid water entered the primary circuit from a leak in the superheater, evaporated in passing through the core and condensed in the lower part of the primary circuit and in the ball handling region. Various fission product activities were measured in the water by the AVR scientists and a study was started to identify the sources of these activities and to derive information which could be used in the analyses of water ingress accidents in general. The first part of this study is reported in this note. The possible source terms are considered separately and estimates of their contributions are made, supported by data from previous laboratory experiments where possible. The main conclusion is that valuable information has been derived concerning the desorption of iodine, cesium and strontium from dust and primary circuit surfaces. A minimum programme of measurements and analytical work necessary to increase this information has been identified. An example of the application of the data to a particular accident to a power reactor is given to indicate how the information can affect the calculation of consequences. For the second part of the study, better estimates of the fission product concentrations in the primary circuit prior to the accident and various measurements when the reactor is operating again are required. (orig.)

  12. Modeling moisture ingress through simplified concrete crack geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pease, Bradley Justin; Michel, Alexander; Geiker, Mette Rica;

    2011-01-01

    , considered to have two parts; 1) a coalesced crack length which behaves as a free-surface for moisture ingress, and 2) an isolated microcracking length which resists ingress similarly to the bulk material. Transport model results are compared to experimental results from steel fibre reinforced concrete wedge...

  13. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  14. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  15. Chloride Ingress in Concrete Cracks under Cyclic Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Küter, André; Geiker, Mette Rica; Olesen, John Forbes;

    2005-01-01

    Traditional approaches towards service life design and redesign of reinforced concrete are based on the assumption of a homogenous uncracked concrete. This assumption is questionable, as concrete always contains cracks and cracks affect the ingress rate of aggressive substances. Thus...

  16. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  17. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  18. Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality and Population Exposure in Urban Planning Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Gidhagen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We employ a nested system of global and regional climate models, linked to regional and urban air quality chemical transport models utilizing detailed inventories of present and future emissions, to study the relative impact of climate change and changing air pollutant emissions on air quality and population exposure in Stockholm, Sweden. We show that climate change only marginally affects air quality over the 20-year period studied. An exposure assessment reveals that the population of Stockholm can expect considerably lower NO2 exposure in the future, mainly due to reduced local NOx emissions. Ozone exposure will decrease only slightly, due to a combination of increased concentrations in the city centre and decreasing concentrations in the suburban areas. The increase in ozone concentration is a consequence of decreased local NOx emissions, which reduces the titration of the long-range transported ozone. Finally, we evaluate the consequences of a planned road transit project on future air quality in Stockholm. The construction of a very large bypass road (including one of the largest motorway road tunnels in Europe will only marginally influence total population exposure, this since the improved air quality in the city centre will be complemented by deteriorated air quality in suburban, residential areas.

  19. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  20. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular hy

  1. Indoor air quality scenario in India-An outline of household fuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohra, Himanshi; Taneja, Ajay

    2016-03-01

    Most of the research around the world has been on outdoor air pollution, but in India we have a more severe problem of Indoor Air Pollution (IAP). The foremost factor cited for is burning of fossil fuels for cooking. Among the 70% of the country's rural population, about 80% households rely on biomass fuel making India to top the list of countries with largest population lacking access to cleaner fuel for cooking. 4 million deaths and 5% disability-adjusted life-years is an upshot of exposure to IAP from unhealthy cooking making it globally the most critical environmental risk factor. India alone bears the highest burden (28% needless deaths) among developing countries. Moreover, about ¼ of ambient PM2.5 in the country comes from household cookfuels. These considerations have prompted the discussion of the present knowledge on the disastrous health effects of pollutants emitted by biomass combustion in India. Additionally, Particulate Matter as an indoor air pollutant is highlighted with main focus on its spatial temporal variation and some recent Indian studies are further explored. As there are no specific norms for IAP in India, urgent need has arisen for implementing the strategies to create public awareness. Moreover improvement in ventilation and modification in the pattern of fuel will also contribute to eradicate this national health issue.

  2. A simplified physically-based model to calculate surface water temperature of lakes from air temperature in climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M.

    2012-12-01

    conditions. As a general result, the model allows one to obtain long-term series of estimated water temperatures, which can be valuably considered in climate change studies. The model has been applied to different lakes (Lake Baikal, Siberia; Lake Garda, Italy; Great Lakes, Canada and USA; Lake Mara, Canada) showing a noticeable agreement with the validation datasets and allowing for predictions of future trends of lake surface water temperature. Finally, it is worth noting that if the model is calibrated using air temperature series from climate models (global scale) and measured records of water temperature (lake scale), air temperatures are contemporaneously converted and downscaled. In conclusion, the model can be used as a downscaling tool, both for historical conditions and projected scenarios.

  3. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  4. Characteristics of Water Ingress in Norwegian Subsea Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsen, Bjørn

    2014-05-01

    Water ingress represents one of the main challenges in subsea tunnelling, particularly when this occurs in sections with poor rock mass quality. This paper is discussing the main characteristics of water ingress in subsea hard rock tunnels based on the experience from almost 50 such tunnels that have been built in Norway. Following a brief description of the geological conditions and the basic design of the subsea tunnels, pre-construction investigations and investigations during excavation are discussed with particular emphasis on prediction of water ingress. Two cases with particularly difficult conditions; the Bjorøy tunnel and the Atlantic Ocean tunnel, are discussed in detail. In these cases, large water inflow with pressure of up to 2.4 MPa was encountered at major faults/weakness zones during excavation, and special procedures were required to cope with the problems. Based on the experience from the Norwegian projects, it is concluded that continuous follow-up by experienced engineering geologists, probe drilling with the drilling jumbo and pre-grouting where required are the most important factors for coping with water ingress and ensuring stability.

  5. Experimental and numerical investigation of chloride ingress in cracked concrete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Šavija, B.

    2014-01-01

    Chloride induced corrosion of reinforcing steel is recognized as the most common deterioration mechanism affecting reinforced concrete structures. As such, it has been in focus of research for more than thirty years. Numerous studies of chloride ingress, corrosion initiation, and corrosion propagati

  6. Chemical Transport and Reduced-Form Models for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of Current and Future Energy Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Though essential for informed decision-making, it is challenging to estimate the air quality and public health impacts associated with current and future energy generation scenarios because the analysis must address the complicated atmospheric processes that air pollutants undergo: emissions, dispersion, chemistry, and removal. Employing a chemical transport model (CTM) is the most rigorous way to address these atmospheric processes. However, CTMs are expensive from a computational standpoint and, therefore, beyond the reach of policy analysis for many types of problems. On the other hand, previously available reduced-form models used for policy analysis fall short of the rigor of CTMs and may lead to biased results. To address this gap, we developed the Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) method, which builds parameterizations that predict per-tonne social costs and intake fractions for pollutants emitted from any location in the United States. Derived from a large database of tagged CTM simulations, the EASIUR method predicts social costs almost indistinguishable from a full CTM but with negligible computational requirements. We found that the average mortality-related social costs from inorganic PM2.5 and its precursors in the United States are 150,000-180,000/t EC, 21,000-34,000/t SO2, 4,200-15,000/t NOx, and 29,000-85,000/t NH3. This talk will demonstrate examples of using both CTMs and reduced-form models for assessing air quality impacts associated with current energy production activities as well as a future deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.

  7. The importance of meteorological scales to forecast air pollution scenarios on coastal complex terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Some of the meteorological approaches commonly considered in urban air pollution models do not take into account the importance of the smaller scales in the meteorology of complex-terrain coastal sites. The aim of this work is to estimate the impact of using the proper meteorological scales when simulating the behaviour of the pollutant concentrations emitted in the lower layers over coastal complex terrain areas. The availability of experimental measurements of a power plant plume near the Castellón conurbation (on the Spanish Mediterranean coast has allowed us to use this plume as a tracer of opportunity of the lower atmosphere to check the results of a simulation exercise using the RAMS mesoscale model coupled to the HYPACT particle model. The results obtained show that in a complex-terrain coastal site, because of the strong effect of the meteorological interactions between the different scales on the integral advection and the turbulent dispersion of pollutants, using an inadequate scale to solve the meteorology can result in a very big gap in the simulation of lower-layer pollutant behaviour at urban scales.

  8. Dirt Ingress Behavior of Wipers for Hydraulic Cylinders

    OpenAIRE

    Barillas, Gonzalo A.; Richter, Sören; Weber, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Dirt ingress in hydraulic cylinders is one of the sources that leads to pollution of hydraulic systems. There are already several test rigs to investigate external contamination mechanisms. However, until now only the behavior of the whole sealing system was analyzed. A new testing method to understand the dirt particle transport between a reciprocating motioned rod and a wiper is presented. The new approach aims to avoid known issues such as limited reproducibility and long duration. The pap...

  9. Analysis on blow-down transient in water ingress accident of high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Water ingress into the primary circuit is generally recognized as one of the severe accidents with potential hazard to the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor, which will cause a positive reactivity introduction with the increase of steam density in reactor core to enhance neutron slowing-down, also the chemical corrosion of graphite fuel elements and the damage of reflector structure material. The increase of the primary pressure may result in the opening of the safety valves, consequently leading the release of radioactive isotopes and flammable water gas. The research on water ingress transient is significant for the verification of inherent safety characteristics of high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, is exampled to be analyzed in this paper. The design basis accident (DBA) scenarios of double-ended guillotine break of single heat-exchange tube (steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture) are simulated by the thermal-hydraulic analysis code, and some key concerns which are relative to the amount of water into the reactor core during the blow-down transient are analyzed in detail. The results show that both of water mass and steam ratio of the fluid spouting from the broken heat-exchange tube are affected by break location, which will increase obviously with the broken location closing to the outlet of the heat-exchange tube. The double-ended guillotine rupture at the outlet of the heat-exchange will result more steam penetrates into the reactor core in the design basis accident of water ingress. The mass of water ingress will also be affected by the draining system. It is concluded that, with reasonable optimization on design to balance safety and economy, the total mass of water ingress into the primary circuit of reactor could be limited effectively to meet the safety requirements, and the pollution of

  10. Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015 for the upper Rhine valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Ponche

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area and regional (upper Rhine valley scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

  11. Wet oxidation of stainless steels: New insights into hydrogen ingress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brady, Michael P [ORNL; Fayek, Mostafa [University of Manitoba, Canada; Keiser, James R [ORNL; Meyer III, Harry M [ORNL; More, Karren Leslie [ORNL; Anovitz, Lawrence {Larry} M [ORNL; Wesolowski, David J [ORNL; Cole, David R [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    detrimental effect. However, the complexities of tracking hydrogen in these materials have prevented the direct profiling of hydrogen ingress needed to understand these phenomena. Here we report hydrogen profiles in industrially-relevant alumina- and chromia-forming steels correlated with the local oxidemetal nano/microstructure by use of SIMS D2O tracer studies and experimental protocols to optimize D retention. The D profiles unexpectedly varied markedly among the alloys examined, which indicates mechanistic complexity but also the potential to mitigate detrimental water vapor effects by manipulation of alloy chemistry.

  12. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  13. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    OpenAIRE

    K. Markakis; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; O. Perrussel; C. Honore; Vautard, R.; Z. Klimont; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed bas...

  14. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning.

  15. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staliulionis, Zygimantas; Jabbaribehnam, Mirmasoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2016-01-01

    The number of electronics used in outdoor environment is constantly growing. The humidity causes about 19 % of all electronics failures and, especially, moisture increases these problems due to the ongoing process of miniaturization and lower power consumption of electronic components. Moisture...... loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based...... on a 1D quasi-steady state (QSS) approximation for Fick's second law. This QSS approach is also described with an electrical analogy which gives a fast tool in modelling of the moisture response. The same QSS method is applied to ambient water vapour variations. The obtained results are compared...

  16. Prediction of chloride ingress and binding in cement paste

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geiker, Mette Rica; Nielsen, Erik Pram; Herforth, Duncan

    2007-01-01

    Finite Difference Model for the ingress of chlorides into concrete which takes into account its multi-component nature. The “composite theory” was then used to predict the diffusivity of each ion based on the phase assemblage present in the hydrated Portland cement paste. Agreement was found between...... in Portland cement pastes at any content of chloride, alkalis, sulfates and carbonate was verified experimentally and found to be equally valid when applied to other data in the literature. The thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement was introduced into an existing...... profiles for the Cl/Ca ratio predicted by the model and those determined experimentally on 0.45 water/powder ratio Portland cement pastes exposed to 650 mM NaCl for 70 days. This confirms the assumption of essentially instantaneous binding where quasi-equilibrium is established locally. This does not imply...

  17. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staliulionis, Ž.; Jabbari, M.; Hattel, J. H.

    2016-06-01

    The number of electronics used in outdoor environment is constantly growing. The humidity causes about 19 % of all electronics failures and, especially, moisture increases these problems due to the ongoing process of miniaturization and lower power consumption of electronic components. Moisture loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based on a 1D quasi-steady state (QSS) approximation for Fick's second law. This QSS approach is also described with an electrical analogy which gives a fast tool in modelling of the moisture response. The same QSS method is applied to ambient water vapour variations. The obtained results are compared to an analytical solution and very good agreement is found.

  18. Ingress of water into solid nylon 6.6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, P.; Bowtell, R.; Blackband, S.

    The ingress of water into Nylon 6.6 has been studied over a range of temperatures by nuclear magnetic resonance imaging techniques. The results have been used to extract the translational diffusion coefficient as a function of water concentration for various temperatures. These results in turn allow the activation energies to be evaluated. Other experiments have been made to measure the spin relaxation times T1 and T2. The results are interpreted using a two-phase exchange model from which good agreement for both the diffusion and relaxation-time data is obtained. High-pressure diffusion results also presented support the view that water is taken up preferentially at the amorphous amide sites in the Nylon and that pressure increases serve to force water onto sitccupied sites and/or onto occupied sites, giving up to three waters per amide site.

  19. Probabilistic Models and Computational Methods for Chloride Ingress in Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.

    Within the last decades it has been recognized that reinforced concrete structures are subject to a number of destructive mechanisms which might affect the structure in such a way that it is not able to fulfil its purpose efficiently. The present report focuses on chloride ingress and chloride......-initiated corrosion of the reinforcement, because experience has shown that in Denmark this is one of the most common destructive mechanisms. In order to ensure that a given reinforced concrete structure is able to fulfil its purpose extensive measurements are performed and on the basis of these measurements...... are costly, and careful planning is mandatory. The planning can be performed on the basis of classical decision theory (see e.g. Raiffa and Schlaifer). However, in order to use decision theory, it is necessary to formulate a probabilistic model of the considered problem....

  20. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    OpenAIRE

    K. Markakis; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; O. Perrussel; C. Honore; Vautard, R.; Z. Klimont; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year...

  1. CyberCIEGE scenario illustrating software integrity issues and management of air-gapped networks in a military environment

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Chay

    2005-01-01

    The importance of Information Assurance (IA) in military operations cannot be overstated. It is a sine qua non that achieving IA requires the effort of all personnel in the organization; just a single untrained end-user is needed to defeat many well thought-out and well-executed security strategies This thesis demonstrated that CyberCIEGE, with its rich elements and tools, can be used to create game scenarios, mimicking real life IA issues, for conveying security lessons to a wide audience...

  2. Nde for Water Ingression in Composite Radomes on Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, David K.; Barnard, Daniel J.; Kite, Adam H.; Kim, Ki-Bok

    2008-02-01

    Aircraft radomes, being an electronic window for the radar, are made of nonconducting composite sandwiches with glass or silica fiber-reinforced facesheet and Nomex honeycomb or foam core. Trapped water or moisture can produce shadow on the image and severely degrade the performance of the radar. To detect water ingression in radomes, the available NDE techniques include x-ray radiography, infrared thermography, and a radome moisture meter that measures the RF power loss caused by the presence of water. In this work we explore the utility of commercially available capacitive sensors with co-planar electrodes that measure the change of the dielectric constant in the fringing field. These capacitive sensors, such as the electronic stud finder and moisture meters for wood, can exploit the large dielectric constant of water and serve as one-sided detectors for water and moisture in radomes. The sensitivities of the various moisture meters were compared in the experimental detection of water introduced into radome panels and water and moisture trapped in retired radomes.

  3. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  4. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  5. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Markakis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (−3.5 ppb in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large

  6. The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region - Part 2: Scenarios for 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthias, V.; Aulinger, A.; Backes, A.; Bieser, J.; Geyer, B.; Quante, M.; Zeretzke, M.

    2016-01-01

    Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea have been developed in the framework of the Clean North Sea Shipping project. The effects of changing NOx and SO2 emissions were investigated with the CMAQ chemistry transport model for the year 2030 in the North Sea area. It has been found that, compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the NO2 and O3 concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented in the North Sea area. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee. The effects differ largely between regions, seasons and date of the implementation of stricter regulations for NOx emissions from newly built ships.

  7. The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Greater North Sea region – Part 2: Scenarios for 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea have been developed in the framework of the Clean North Sea Shipping project. The effects of changing NOx and SO2 emissions were invesigated with the chemistry transport model CMAQ for the year 2030 in the North Sea area. It has been found that, compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the NO2 and O3 concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 and 5%, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions will be implemented in the North Sea area. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulphur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee. The effects differ largely between regions, seasons and date of the implementation of stricter regulations for NOx emissions from new built ships.

  8. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    urbanized area. Additionally, we thought that the difference of variables like surface temperature and PBL height will surely create the variation of the future air quality in SMA. So, we examined the CMAQ (Community Modeling and Analysis System) model, which is usually to predict the timely variation and the spatial distribution of air pollutant like ozone, particular matter, to know the possibility of the prediction of the future air quality changes under the urban growth changes and ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios. To make the initial emission data for CMAQ modeling, we analyzed the National Air Pollutants emission data for past 12 years (1999~2010) generated by National institute of Environmental Research in Korea and assumed that future emission is increased linearly by 2050.

  9. TOPFLOW-PTS air-water experiments on the phase separation in the ECC nozzle and the ECC water mixing during PTS scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In two-phase Pressurized Thermal Shock scenarios several thermal hydraulic phenomena, such as direct contact condensation, entrainment of steam bubbles and multi-scale momentum transfer are involved. The TOPFLOW-PTS experimental assembly represents a 1:2.5 scaled model of a PWR downcomer, cold leg with emergency core cooling injection and a pump simulator. It is build up for the development and validation of CFD models. The setup is highly instrumented - a large number of thermocouples, an infrared and a high-speed camera as well as wire mesh sensors are used to obtain CFD-grade data. As a first step air-water experiments were done with the special aim to investigate the behaviour of the liquid jet from the ECC injection into the cold leg. They indicated that the jet momentum at the impact position is very important for the mixing process and stratification inside the ECC nozzle needs to be considered in CFD calculations. (author)

  10. Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Myoung-Seok; Oh, Seok-Geun; Lee, Young-Suk; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor's skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.

  11. Air oxidation behavior of fuel for the high temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kikuchi, Hironobu; Hayashi, Kimio; Fukuda, Kousaku (Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment)

    1992-08-01

    The oxidation behavior of the HTTR fuel was studied with respect to the scenario of an air ingress accident which had been assessed in the HTTR safety analysis. The coated fuel particles were heated under a sufficient air flow in the temperature range of 900-1400degC for maximum duration of 600 h (at 1300degC). Failure fractions of the SiC coating layer after the heat treatments remained within the fraction at the fuel production. And the failure behavior of the SiC layer did not depend on such heating conditions as the temperature and the duration in the present experiment. It was confirmed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction and laser Raman spectroscopy that a thin oxide film was formed on the SiC layer by the heat treatments. (author).

  12. Air oxidation behavior of fuel for the high temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The oxidation behavior of the HTTR fuel was studied with respect to the scenario of an air ingress accident which had been assessed in the HTTR safety analysis. The coated fuel particles were heated under a sufficient air flow in the temperature range of 900-1400degC for maximum duration of 600 h (at 1300degC). Failure fractions of the SiC coating layer after the heat treatments remained within the fraction at the fuel production. And the failure behavior of the SiC layer did not depend on such heating conditions as the temperature and the duration in the present experiment. It was confirmed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction and laser Raman spectroscopy that a thin oxide film was formed on the SiC layer by the heat treatments. (author)

  13. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parker, Simon; Coffey, Chris; Gravesen, Jens;

    2014-01-01

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time series in different internal locations. A state-spac...

  14. A simulation study of dispersion of air borne radionuclides from a nuclear power plant under a hypothetical accidental scenario at a tropical coastal site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, C. V.; Venkatesan, R.

    Meteorological condition in coastal regions is diurnally variable and spatially heterogeneous due to complex topography, land-sea interface, etc. A wide range of dispersion conditions is possible on a given day in the coastal regions. In case of inadvertent accidental situations, though unlikely, it would be necessary to examine the potentially severe case among different dynamically occurring local atmospheric conditions for dispersion and its range of impact around a nuclear power plant for safety analysis. In this context, dispersion of air borne radioactive effluents during a hypothetical accidental scenario from a proposed prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) at an Indian coastal site, Kalpakkam, is simulated using a 3-D meso-scale atmospheric model MM5 and a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. A simulation carried out for a typical summer day predicted the development of land-sea breeze circulation and thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) formation, which have been confirmed by meteorological observations. Analysis of dose distribution shows that the maximum dose for releases from a 100 m stack occurs at two places within 4 km distance during sea breeze/TIBL fumigation hours. Maximum dose also occurred during nighttime stable conditions. Results indicate that, on the day of present study, the highest concentrations occurred during periods of TIBL fumigation rather than during stable atmospheric conditions. Further, the area of impact (plume width at the surface) spreads up to a down wind distance of 4 km during fumigation condition. Simulation over a range of 25 km has shown turning of plume at the incidence of sea breeze circulation and two different dispersion patterns across the sea breeze front. These results are significant in comparison to the expected pattern shown by Gaussian plume model used for routine analysis.

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  16. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  17. Evaluation of ATP measurements to detect microbial ingress by wastewater and surface water in drinking water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vang, Óluva Karin; Corfitzen, Charlotte B.; Smith, Christian;

    2014-01-01

    Fast and reliable methods are required for monitoring of microbial drinking water quality in order to protect public health. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was investigated as a potential real-time parameter for detecting microbial ingress in drinking water contaminated with wastewater or surface...... water. To investigate the ability of the ATP assay in detecting different contamination types, the contaminant was diluted with non-chlorinated drinking water. Wastewater, diluted at 10(4) in drinking water, was detected with the ATP assay, as well as 10(2) to 10(3) times diluted surface water....... To improve the performance of the ATP assay in detecting microbial ingress in drinking water, different approaches were investigated, i.e. quantifying microbial ATP or applying reagents of different sensitivities to reduce measurement variations; however, none of these approaches contributed significantly...

  18. Main routes of oxygen ingress through different closures into wine bottles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Paulo; Saucier, Cédric; Teissedre, Pierre-Louis; Glories, Yves

    2007-06-27

    The main routes of oxygen ingress into wine bottles through "technical" cork stoppers (Neutrocork), natural cork stoppers, and synthetic closures (Nomacorc) were investigated. A comparison was made among closures left uncovered (controls), closures with the closure-glass interface covered, and closures completely covered with a polyurethane impermeable varnish. The oxygen ingress into the bottles was measured by a nondestructive colorimetric method. Technical cork stoppers were essentially impermeable to atmospheric oxygen during the first 24 months of storage. Oxygen within natural corks diffused slowly but continuously into the bottles over the first 12 months of storage and in very tiny amounts through the cork-glass interface the 12 months thereafter. Nomacorc synthetic closures were permeable to atmospheric oxygen, mainly after the first month of storage. PMID:17542613

  19. Evaluation of ATP measurements to detect microbial ingress by wastewater and surface water in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vang, Óluva K; Corfitzen, Charlotte B; Smith, Christian; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2014-11-01

    Fast and reliable methods are required for monitoring of microbial drinking water quality in order to protect public health. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was investigated as a potential real-time parameter for detecting microbial ingress in drinking water contaminated with wastewater or surface water. To investigate the ability of the ATP assay in detecting different contamination types, the contaminant was diluted with non-chlorinated drinking water. Wastewater, diluted at 10(4) in drinking water, was detected with the ATP assay, as well as 10(2) to 10(3) times diluted surface water. To improve the performance of the ATP assay in detecting microbial ingress in drinking water, different approaches were investigated, i.e. quantifying microbial ATP or applying reagents of different sensitivities to reduce measurement variations; however, none of these approaches contributed significantly in this respect. Compared to traditional microbiological methods, the ATP assay could detect wastewater and surface water in drinking water to a higher degree than total direct counts (TDCs), while both heterotrophic plate counts (HPC 22 °C and HPC 37 °C) and Colilert-18 (Escherichia coli and coliforms) were more sensitive than the ATP measurements, though with much longer response times. Continuous sampling combined with ATP measurements displays definite monitoring potential for microbial drinking water quality, since microbial ingress in drinking water can be detected in real-time with ATP measurements. The ability of the ATP assay to detect microbial ingress is influenced by both the ATP load from the contaminant itself and the ATP concentration in the specific drinking water. Consequently, a low ATP concentration of the specific drinking water facilitates a better detection of a potential contamination of the water supply with the ATP assay.

  20. Quantitative NMR monitoring of liquid ingress into repellent heterogeneous layered fabrics

    OpenAIRE

    Bencsik, Martin; Adriaensen, Hans; Brewer, Stuart; McHale, Glen

    2008-01-01

    Fabrics which are water repellent and repellent to other liquids are often constructed using multiple layers of material. Such a construction is preferable to a single layer of a liquid-repellent textile because, under the action of an applied pressure, ingress of a liquid through the first layer can be halted by the second or subsequent layers. In the quantitative investigation of this problem, current techniques provide limited information on the progress and distribution of the liquid as i...

  1. Quantitative NMR monitoring of liquid ingress into repellent heterogeneous layered fabrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bencsik, Martin; Adriaensen, Hans; Brewer, Stuart A.; McHale, Glen

    2008-07-01

    Fabrics which are water repellent and repellent to other liquids are often constructed using multiple layers of material. Such a construction is preferable to a single layer of a liquid-repellent textile because, under the action of an applied pressure, ingress of a liquid through the first layer can be halted by the second or subsequent layers. In the quantitative investigation of this problem, current techniques provide limited information on the progress and distribution of the liquid as it ingresses into a fabric. Moreover, many techniques require that the material is delaminated prior to analysis, and cannot be conducted in real time to measure the progress of a liquid through the textile substrate. In this work we demonstrate that unilateral NMR, which allows signal to be collected from a volume of interest in a material residing above the instrument, can be a powerful tool to quantitatively monitor the ingress of a liquid through a layered sample exhibiting pronounced heterogeneities in repellency. A known volume of oil was placed on the top of a model textile sample composed of three 80 μm thick layers. Spatially resolved one dimensional vertical NMR profiles of the system were acquired as a function of the pressure vertically applied to the top of the sample. These profiles show that the absolute liquid volume present in each layer of textile can routinely be measured within 4 min with a spatial resolution of 15 μm. If each individual layer exhibits different repellency to the test liquid, the complexity of the dynamics of the ingress can be investigated in great detail. An elegant application of the unilateral instrument was obtained in which the sensitive volume matched the region of interest of the individual layers of the textile under investigation.

  2. Vision-Aided Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro Aerial Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockers, Roland; Ma, Jeremy C.; Matthies, Larry H.; Bouffard, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Micro aerial vehicles have limited sensor suites and computational power. For reconnaissance tasks and to conserve energy, these systems need the ability to autonomously land at vantage points or enter buildings (ingress). But for autonomous navigation, information is needed to identify and guide the vehicle to the target. Vision algorithms can provide egomotion estimation and target detection using input from cameras that are easy to include in miniature systems.

  3. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apte, Michael G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dutton, Spencer M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berkeley, Pam M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Spears, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  4. VERIFICATION OF SURFACE LAYER OZONE FORECASTS IN THE NOAA/EPA AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM IN DIFFERENT REGIONS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is ...

  5. Air

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... house) Industrial emissions (like smoke and chemicals from factories) Household cleaners (spray cleaners, air fresheners) Car emissions (like carbon monoxide) *All of these things make up “particle pollution.” They mostly come from cars, trucks, buses, and ...

  6. Analysis of the dynamics of hydrogen ingress to secondary sodium after the replacement of the steam generator stages of the BN-600 power unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article presents the calculation methodology of hydrogen ingress rate into secondary circuit sodium of the BN-600 power unit. The sources and the mechanism of the hydrogen ingress after the replacement of a lot of the PGN-200M steam generator stages within the scope of work on the power unit operation lifetime extension were defined. The hydrogen ingress rate after impending replacements of steam generator stages was estimated

  7. Analysis of an infill scenario for Rotterdam. Traffic noise, air pollution, and public health in relation to urban density and traffic of cars and bicycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaminée, S.; Rietveld, E.; Salomons, E.; Kluizenaar, Y. de; Borsboom, J.; Borst, H.; Guit, M.

    2012-01-01

    An analysis is presented of various elements of an infill scenario for the center of Rotterdam in the year 2030, corresponding to a population increase from about 30,000 to 60,000 inhabitants. We have implemented detailed future building designs in our software instrument Urban Strategy, and calcula

  8. Do predator-prey relationships on the river bed affect fine sediment ingress?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathers, Kate; Rice, Stephen; Wood, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Ecosystem engineers are organisms that alter their physical environment and thereby influence the flow of resources through ecosystems. In rivers, several ecosystem engineers are also important geomorphological agents that modify fluvial sediment dynamics. By altering channel morphology and bed material characteristics, such modifications can affect the availability of habitats for other organisms, with implications for ecosystem health and wider community composition. In this way geomorphological and ecological systems are intimately interconnected. This paper focuses on one element of this intricate abiotic-biotic coupling: the interaction between fine sediment ingress into the river bed and the predator-prey relationships of aquatic organisms living on and in the river bed. Signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) have been shown to modify fine sediment fluxes in rivers, but their effect on fine sediment ingress into riverbeds remains unclear. Many macroinvertebrate taxa have adapted avoidance strategies to avoid predation by crayfish, with one example being the freshwater shrimp (Gammarus pulex) which relies on open interstitial spaces within subsurface sediments as a refuge from crayfish predation. Fine sedimentation that fills gravelly frameworks may preclude access to those spaces, therefore leaving freshwater shrimp susceptible to predation. Ex-situ experiments were conducted which sought to examine: i) if freshwater shrimps and signal crayfish, alone and in combination, influenced fine sediment infiltration rates; and ii) whether modifications to substratum composition, specifically the introduction of fine sediment, modified predator-prey interactions. The results demonstrate that crayfish are significant geomorphic agents and that fine sediment ingress rates were significantly enhanced in their presence compared to control conditions or the presence of only freshwater shrimps. The combination of both organisms (i.e. allowing the interaction between

  9. The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winn, Joshua N.; Howard, Andrew W.; Johnson, John A.; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Gazak, J. Zachary; Starkey, Donn; Ford, Eric B.; Colon, Knicole D.; Reyes, Francisco; Nortmann, Lisa; Dreizler, Stefan; Odewahn, Stephen; Welsh, William F.; Kadakia, Shimonee; Vanderbei, Robert J.; Adams, Elisabeth R.; Lockhart, Matthew; Crossfield, Ian J.; Valenti, Jeff A.; Dantowitz, Ronald; Carter, Joshua A.

    2009-01-01

    We reported the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 plus or minus 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibited an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. Thus, the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism.

  10. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar measured by Electron Probe Micro Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

    1998-01-01

    is 100-1000 times better than for conventional techniques.The present project is aimed to give a better understanding of the physical-chemical nature of chloride ingress. A number of different cement pastes and mortars are examined ranging from traditional to modern high-performance types. The pastes...... and mortars are exposed to synthetic seawater from 1 day to half a year. Thereafter, the samples are examined by EPMA. Modelling of the measured profiles focuses on a physico-chemical understanding of the mechanisms....

  11. Hydrogen Ingress in Steels During High-Temperature Oxidation in Water Vapor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brady, Michael P [ORNL; Fayek, Mostafa [ORNL; Keiser, James R [ORNL; Meyer III, Harry M [ORNL; More, Karren Leslie [ORNL; Anovitz, Lawrence {Larry} M [ORNL; Wesolowski, David J [ORNL; Cole, David R [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    It is well established that hydrogen derived from water vapour can penetrate oxidizing alloys with detrimental effect. However, the complexities of tracking hydrogen in these materials have prevented the direct profiling of hydrogen ingress needed to understand these phenomena. Here we report hydrogen profiles in industrially-relevant alumina- and chromia- forming steels correlated with the local oxide-metal nano/microstructure by use of SIMS D2O tracer studies and experimental protocols to optimize D retention. The D profiles unexpectedly varied markedly among the alloys examined, which indicates mechanistic complexity but also the potential to mitigate detrimental water vapour effects by manipulation of alloy chemistry.

  12. Air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years several regulations and standards for air quality and limits for air pollution were issued or are in preparation by the European Union, which have severe influence on the environmental monitoring and legislation in Austria. This chapter of the environmental control report of Austria gives an overview about the legal situation of air pollution control in the European Union and in specific the legal situation in Austria. It gives a comprehensive inventory of air pollution measurements for the whole area of Austria of total suspended particulates, ozone, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, heavy metals, benzene, dioxin, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and eutrophication. For each of these pollutants the measured emission values throughout Austria are given in tables and geographical charts, the environmental impact is discussed, statistical data and time series of the emission sources are given and legal regulations and measures for an effective environmental pollution control are discussed. In particular the impact of fossil-fuel power plants on the air pollution is analyzed. (a.n.)

  13. Perfluorocarbon Tracer Experiments on a 2 km Scale in Manchester Showing Ingress of Pollutants into a Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, James; Wright, Matthew; Bacak, Asan; Silva, Hugo; Priestley, Michael; Martin, Damien; Percival, Carl; Shallcross, Dudley

    2016-04-01

    Cyclic perfluorocarbons (PFCs) have been used to measure the passage of air in urban and rural settings as they are chemically inert, non-toxic and have low background concentrations. The use of pre-concentrators and chemical ionisation gas chromatography enables concentrations of a few parts per quadrillion (ppq) to be measured in bag samples. Three PFC tracers were used in Manchester, UK in the summer of 2015 to map airflow in the city and ingress into buildings: perfluomethylcyclohexane (PMCH), perfluoro-2-4-dimethylcyclohexane (mPDMCH) and perfluoro-2-methyl-3-ethylpentene (PMEP). A known quantity of each PFC was released for 15 minutes from steel canisters using pre-prepared PFC mixtures. Release points were chosen to be upwind of the central sampling location (Simon Building, University of Manchester) and varied in distance up to 2.2 km. Six releases using one or three tracers in different configurations and under different conditions were undertaken in the summer. Three further experiments were conducted in the Autumn, to more closely investigate the rate of ingress and decay of tracer indoors. In each experiment, 10 litre samples were made over 30 minutes into Tedlar bags, starting at the same time the as PFC release. Samples were taken in 11 locations chosen from 15 identified areas including three in public parks, three outside within the University of Manchester area, seven inside and five outside of the Simon building and two outside a building nearby. For building measurements, receptors were placed inside the buildings on different floors; outside measurements were achieved through a sample line out of the window. Three of the sample positions inside the Simon building were paired with samplers outside to allow indoor-outdoor comparisons. PFC concentrations varied depending on location and height. The highest measured concentrations occurred when the tracer was released at sunrise; up to 330 ppq above background (11 ppq) of PMCH was measured at the 6

  14. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  15. Augmin shapes the anaphase spindle for efficient cytokinetic furrow ingression and abscission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uehara, Ryota; Kamasaki, Tomoko; Hiruma, Shota; Poser, Ina; Yoda, Kinya; Yajima, Junichiro; Gerlich, Daniel W; Goshima, Gohta

    2016-03-01

    During anaphase, distinct populations of microtubules (MTs) form by either centrosome-dependent or augmin-dependent nucleation. It remains largely unknown whether these different MT populations contribute distinct functions to cytokinesis. Here we show that augmin-dependent MTs are required for the progression of both furrow ingression and abscission. Augmin depletion reduced the accumulation of anillin, a contractile ring regulator at the cell equator, yet centrosomal MTs were sufficient to mediate RhoA activation at the furrow. This defect in contractile ring organization, combined with incomplete spindle pole separation during anaphase, led to impaired furrow ingression. During the late stages of cytokinesis, astral MTs formed bundles in the intercellular bridge, but these failed to assemble a focused midbody structure and did not establish tight linkage to the plasma membrane, resulting in furrow regression. Thus augmin-dependent acentrosomal MTs and centrosomal MTs contribute to nonredundant targeting mechanisms of different cytokinesis factors, which are required for the formation of a functional contractile ring and midbody. PMID:26764096

  16. Ingression Progression Complexes Control Extracellular Matrix Remodelling during Cytokinesis in Budding Yeast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Foltman

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Eukaryotic cells must coordinate contraction of the actomyosin ring at the division site together with ingression of the plasma membrane and remodelling of the extracellular matrix (ECM to support cytokinesis, but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood. In eukaryotes, glycosyltransferases that synthesise ECM polysaccharides are emerging as key factors during cytokinesis. The budding yeast chitin synthase Chs2 makes the primary septum, a special layer of the ECM, which is an essential process during cell division. Here we isolated a group of actomyosin ring components that form complexes together with Chs2 at the cleavage site at the end of the cell cycle, which we named 'ingression progression complexes' (IPCs. In addition to type II myosin, the IQGAP protein Iqg1 and Chs2, IPCs contain the F-BAR protein Hof1, and the cytokinesis regulators Inn1 and Cyk3. We describe the molecular mechanism by which chitin synthase is activated by direct association of the C2 domain of Inn1, and the transglutaminase-like domain of Cyk3, with the catalytic domain of Chs2. We used an experimental system to find a previously unanticipated role for the C-terminus of Inn1 in preventing the untimely activation of Chs2 at the cleavage site until Cyk3 releases the block on Chs2 activity during late mitosis. These findings support a model for the co-ordinated regulation of cell division in budding yeast, in which IPCs play a central role.

  17. Defending of IP Spoofing by Ingress Filter in Extended-Inter Domain Packet Key Marking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Velmayil

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The significance of the DDoS problem and the increased occurrence and strength of attacks has led to the dawn of numerous prevention mechanisms. IP spoofing is most frequently used in denial-of-service attacks. In such attacks, the goal is to flood the victim with overwhelming amounts of traffic, and the attacker does not care about receiving responses to the attack packets. IP spoofing is one of the basic weaknesses in the Internet Protocol to launch the DDOS attack. Each prevention mechanism has some unique advantages and disadvantages over the others. The existing methods become ineffective due to a large number of filters required and they lack in information about where to place the filter. We propose Ingress filter in Extended Inter Domain Packet Key marking system .This paper comprises of two functional blocks namely, Key marking system and filtering blocks. In the marking block, each source is labeled with a key. The key is changed continuously for a certain period of time to provide secured system and is validated at border routers. In the filtering block, spoofed packets are filtered at the border router using Ingress filter to filter beyond periphery routers. The filter placement algorithm clearly put forwards the conditions under which the filter can operate accurately. The accuracy of the proposed systems is validated using Network Simulator (NS-2.

  18. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  19. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  20. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  1. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  2. Assessing the effects of different regulatory scenarios on air pollutant emissions generated by fossil fuels: The case of the new Italian energy plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper gives a short view of the study aimed at assessing the effect of different regulations on the reduction of emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, total suspended particles and carbon monoxide which will be generated in Italy by the combustion of fossil fuels, according to the projections of the energy consumptions reported in the National Energy Plan. Overall, twenty regulatory scenarios have been implemented to simulate the evolution of emissions in the years 1995 and 2000 in the main activity sectors: electricity generation, industry, transportation and domestic. On the basis of the results of this simulation a preliminary estimate has been done of the costs associated with the reduction of emissions in the electricity generating sector. (author)

  3. 36 CFR 14.5 - Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress. 14.5 Section 14.5 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR RIGHTS-OF-WAY Nature of Interest § 14.5...

  4. A combined experimental and theoretical study on the side ingress of water into barrier adhesives for organic electronics applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michels, J.J.; Peter, M.; Salem, A.; Remoortere, B. van; Brand, J. van den

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a thorough experimental and theoretical analysis of a model system for the mechanism of cathode degradation in OLED and OPV devices due to lateral side ingress of water vapour into laminated thin film barrier structures. The experimental procedure allows for full quantitative con

  5. Water ingress in Y-type zeolite: anomalous moisture-dependent transport diffusivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Azevedo, Eduardo N; da Silva, D Vitoreti; de Souza, R E; Engelsberg, M

    2006-10-01

    Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging measurements of liquid water ingress in a large number of nonactivated Y-type (Na) zeolite samples prepared under different conditions are reported on. Using an experimental arrangement that permits the application of Boltzmann's transformation of the 1D (one-dimensional) diffusion equation, the spatiotemporal scaling variables required for a collapse of the measured profiles into universal curves revealed subdiffusive behavior in all cases. It is shown that the one-dimensional fractal time diffusion equation constitutes a powerful tool to analyze the data and provides a connection between the moisture dependence of the effective transport diffusivities and the shapes of the universal curves. Thus, even for anomalous diffusion, the relationship between the universal curves and structural characteristics of the system; such as porosity, tortuosity of the pore space and, in some cases, the interplay between mesopores and nanopores can be addressed. PMID:17155023

  6. Water ingress into a casein film quantified using time-resolved neutron imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metwalli, E; Hermes, H E; Calzada, E; Kulozik, U; Egelhaaf, S U; Müller-Buschbaum, P

    2016-03-01

    The migration of water into a casein film was probed with neutron radiography. From the neutron transmission images, the evolution of the water saturation profiles was extracted. The results indicate that the water influx is dominated by imbibition but also contains a diffusional component. The time dependence of the water ingress was quantified using a diffusion-like equation previously also applied to imbibition. A water transport coefficient D = 0.9 × 10(-9) m(2) s(-1) was found. This value and direct observation of the images indicate that the time taken for a typical adhesive casein-based layer to become saturated with water is of the order of hours. PMID:26862596

  7. Influence of heat treatment on hydrogen ingress into V-4Cr-4Ti alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayakawa, Ryo; Hatano, Yuji; Fukumoto, Ken-ichi; Matsui, Hideki; Watanabe, Kuniaki

    2004-08-01

    Specimens of V-4Cr-4Ti alloy were heated at 1273 K in vacuum, and the influence of this heat treatment on H 2 absorption was examined at temperatures from 523 to 1023 K under the presence of water vapor of 10 -5 Pa. The rate of H 2 absorption was significantly reduced by the heat treatment in the temperature range examined. Such reduction in the absorption rate was ascribed to the surface segregation of Ti and increase in surface oxygen coverage caused by preferential oxidation of segregating Ti by water vapor. Comparison with data reported by other researchers [J. Nucl. Mater. 233-237 (1996) 376; Fusion Technol. 34 (1998) 868; J. Nucl. Mater. 233-237 (1996) 510] indicated the strong barrier effect of Ti oxide against hydrogen ingress.

  8. Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Chloride Ingress into Reinforced Concrete Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, Christian; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2007-01-01

    For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of the reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in maintenance and repair actions. Further, a reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. In the present paper the Finite Element Reliability Method (FERM) is employed...... for obtaining the probability of exceeding a critical chloride concentration level at the reinforcement bars, both using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The chloride ingress is modelled by the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the diffusion coefficient, surface chloride...... concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modelled by stochastic fields, which are discretized using the Expansion Optimum Linear Estimation (EOLE) approach. The response gradients needed for FORM analysis are derived analytically using the Direct Differentiation Method (DDM). As an example, a bridge pier...

  9. Resistance of a novel root canal sealer to bacterial ingress in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padachey, N; Patel, V; Santerre, P; Cvitkovitch, D; Lawrence, H P; Friedman, S

    2000-11-01

    A dentin-bonding root canal sealer (ZUT) has been developed, consisting of an experimental glass ionomer cement (KT-308) and an antimicrobial silver-containing zeolite (0.2% by weight). This in vitro study evaluated the ability of ZUT used with or without gutta-percha, to resist bacterial ingress of Enterococcus faecalis over a period of 90 days. Canals of 80 single-rooted teeth were prepared with apical patency and filled as follows (n = 10): KT-308 alone; KT-308 with a single gutta-percha cone (SCGP); ZUT alone; ZUT with SCGP; AH26 alone; AH26 with SCGP; positive control-no root canal filling; and negative control-no root canal filling, with the apices of this group sealed with C&B Metabond cement. Teeth were coated with nail polish except for the apical 2 mm, and each tooth was sealed in a 4-ml glass vial, with an 18-gauge needle inserted through the vial cover and bonded into the pulp chamber with C&B Metabond cement. After sterilization with 2.5 Mrad gamma-radiation, Brain Heart Infusion broth with phenol red was injected into each vial. An inoculum of E. faecalis was pipetted through the needle into the pulp chamber every 5 days, and the broth was monitored daily for color change and turbidity. When change occurred, the broth was cultured for growth of E. faecalis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the log-rank test revealed no significant differences among the three sealers used. The presence of gutta-percha, however, significantly improved resistance to bacterial ingress through obturated root canals (X, p < 0.05). Under the conditions of this study, the hypothesized advantage of ZUT (0.2% zeolite) was not demonstrated. PMID:11469295

  10. Influence of temporal resolution and processing of exposure data on modeling of chloride ingress and reinforcement corrosion in concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flint, Madeleine; Michel, Alexander; Billington, Sarah L.;

    2014-01-01

    a numerical heat and mass transport model that includes full coupling of heat, moisture and ion transport. Heat, moisture, and chloride concentration distributions were passed to a simplified reinforcement corrosion initiation and propagation model. The numerical study indicates that processing and temporal...... resolution of the exposure data has a considerable impact on long-term hygrothermal distribution, chloride ingress, and reinforcement section loss results. Use of time-averaged exposure data in the heat and mass transport model reduces the rate of chloride ingress in concrete and affects prediction...... of reinforcement corrosion initiation and propagation. Randomly sampled exposure data at daily, weekly, or monthly resolution yields prediction of reinforcement corrosion initiation and propagation closer to original resolution results than time-averaged exposure data....

  11. Magnitude and reactivity consequences of moisture ingress into the modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inadvertent admission of moisture into the primary system of a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor has been identified in US Department of Energy-sponsored studies as an important safety concern. The work described here develops an analytical methodology to quantify the pressure and reactivity consequences of steam-generator tube rupture and other moisture-ingress-related incidents. Important neutronic and thermohydraulic processes are coupled with reactivity feedback and safety and control system responses. The rate and magnitude of steam buildup are found to be dominated by major system features such as break size compared with safety valve capacity and reliability and less sensitive to factors such as heat transfer coefficients. The results indicate that ingress transients progress at a slower pace than previously predicted by bounding analyses, with milder power overshoots and more time for operator or automatic corrective actions

  12. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    KAUST Repository

    Parker, Simon

    2013-08-13

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time series in different internal locations. A state-space approach is adopted to represent the concentration dynamics within multizone buildings. Analysis based on this approach is used to demonstrate that the exposure in every interior location is limited to the exterior exposure in the absence of removal mechanisms. Estimates are also developed for the short term maximum concentration and exposure in a multizone building in response to a step-change in concentration. These have considerable potential for practical use. The analytical development is demonstrated using a simple two-zone building with an inner zone and a range of existing multizone models of residential buildings. Quantitative measures are provided of the standard deviation of concentration and exposure within a range of residential multizone buildings. Ratios of the maximum short term concentrations and exposures to single zone building estimates are also provided for the same buildings. © 2013 Tsinghua University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  13. Theoretical and experimental studies of crossflow minichannel heat exchanger subjected to external heat ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effect of heat in-leak, an unavoidable phenomenon occurring due to the temperature difference between the system and its surroundings, has been studied for two-stream crossflow minichannel heat exchangers with unmixed fluids. Assuming that the amount of heat in-leak is known, an analytical expression for the normalised temperature difference between hot and cold fluids has been derived in terms of dimensionless parameters. The analytical results, in conjugation with the area partitioning of crossflow heat exchanger both in x and y directions, have been used for predicting the outlet fluid temperatures. On the experimental part, one of the end plates in a crossflow-type multistream, minichannel heat exchanger has been subjected to deliberate external heat input given electrically. The variation in the exit fluid temperatures has been recorded as a function of this external heat in-leak entering the exchanger through one of its outer surfaces. Experimental data obtained is employed to validate the fluid exit temperatures predicted by the developed model under the same conditions of external heat ingress. - Highlights: • Theoretical model of crossflow heat exchanger with known ambient heat leak amount. • Numerical technique of partitioning exchanger into smaller segments. • Experimental validation of model by testing of crossflow minichannel heat exchanger

  14. The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

    CERN Document Server

    Winn, Joshua N; Johnson, John Asher; Marcy, Geoffrey W; Gazak, J Zachary; Starkey, Donn; Ford, Eric B; Colon, Knicole D; Reyes, Francisco; Nortmann, Lisa; Dreizler, Stefan; Odewahn, Stephen; Welsh, William F; Kadakia, Shimonee; Vanderbei, Robert J; Adams, Elisabeth R; Lockhart, Matthew; Crossfield, Ian J; Valenti, Jeff A; Dantowitz, Ronald; Carter, Joshua A

    2009-01-01

    We present the results of a pan-American campaign to observe the 2009 June 5 transit of the exoplanet HD 80606b. We report the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 +/- 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibit an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. The Keck data show that the projected spin-orbit angle is between 32-87 deg with 68.3% confidence and between 14-142 deg with 99.73% confidence. Thus the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric (e=0.93), but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism. Independently of the theory, it is noteworthy that all 3 exoplanetary systems with known spin-orbit misalignments have massive planets on eccentric orbits, suggesting ...

  15. Towards a new scenary for research assessment: the institutional repository (AIR of Milan University Verso un nuovo scenario per la valutazione della ricerca: l'Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR dell'Università di Milano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Galimberti

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to report about the unconventional use of an institutional repository, that has been used as data source to assess the scientific production and productivity within the Departments of the Faculty of Letters at the University of Milan.The analysis of the results of the pilot shows that the archive and the data manager are a valid instrument to aggregate and analyze large quantities of bibliographic metadata, so the pilot can be extended to the whole university.A comparison with other universities is difficult since the use of institutional respositories is not so widespread, and there is no security on the coverage and the comprehensiveness of the data inside them. To conclude, there is a strong necessity to widen the presence and the usage of institutional repositories, according to the Recommendations of the Conference of the Rectors of Italian Universities (CRUI, and to update methodologies and processes of evaluation considering new models of production, fruition, and dissemination of scientific outputs. Moreover, the open access approach not only widens the potentialities of an easier access to information, but modifies the fruition of the information itself.The evaluative scenario must adapt to the new circumstances, as well as web circulation of the information has modified the measurability of contents with respect to the results in the publications themselves.Il presente lavoro esamina l'esperienza dell'utilizzo dell'archivio istituzionale dell'Università degli Studi di Milano come fonte di informazione per la valutazione interna dei prodotti della ricerca dei Dipartimenti della Facoltà di Lettere e Filosofia.  Attraverso l'analisi dei risultati dell'esercizio pilota, l'archivio e il sistema di elaborazione di dati in esso contenuti si sono rivelati un ottimo strumento per l'aggregazione e l'analisi di grandi quantità di metadati bibliografici qualitativamente affidabili e utilizzabili per esercizi di

  16. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  17. Future surface air temperature changes in China under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios%不同温室气体排放情景下未来中国地面气温变化特征

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫冠华; 李巧萍; 邢超

    2011-01-01

    采用20多个参与政府间气候变化委员会第4次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的全球气候模式,在20世纪气候模拟试验和SRES B1、A1B和A2 3种排放情景下进行数值集合分析,结果表明未来中国大陆的气温变化有着明显的时间和空间差异.21世纪,中国大陆年平均气温呈显著升高趋势,至2099年平均增温范围为2.5~4.9℃,高于全球平均值.冬季升温明显高于其他季节,年较差呈减小趋势.21世纪前期,变暖预估值受排放情景假设或模式敏感性的影响较小,不同排放情景和不同模式之间的预估结果一致,中国大陆平均增温范围为0.88~0.92 ℃,21世纪中期以后这种差异逐渐增大,增暖范围为2.44~4.28 ℃.相对于1980-1999年平均气候场,中国大陆平均升温值在20世纪50年代前后达到2 ℃,此后,A1B及A2情景下中国大陆气温快速升高,在21世纪60年代末达到或超过3 °,但区域差异明显,升温值达2 ℃的时间由北至南在不同排放情景下相差10~30 a,东北、西北地区将成为未来受气温升高影响最为敏感的地区.%Based on IPCC AR4 outputs simulated by multi-model for 20th century and future projection under SRES B1 ,A1B and A2 green emission scenarios, the surface air temperature changes in the 21st century are analyzed. It is revealed that the surface temperature presents different spatial and temporal features over China. Annual mean temperature will rise by 2.5-4.9 ℃ at the end of the 21st century under 3 Scenarios,and the enhancement magnitude is larger than global mean. In addition, the warming magnitude in winter will be larger than in the other seasons, the annual range of temperature is expected to decrease in the future. The projection results are consistent between the different emission scenarios and models in the first half of the 21st century, with the warming magnitude being 0.88-0.92 ℃. However,the projected temperature becomes more sensitive to the scenarios and

  18. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  19. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  20. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  1. Rail crash demonstration scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper describes the manner in which the rail crash scenario was selected for public demonstration. A simplified risk assessment led to the short listing of three contender scenarios involving a drop from a high level, a crash into an abutment and the crash of a train into a stationary flask. Predictive work led to the final selection of the train crash. (author)

  2. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  3. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with varyin

  4. Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-6 test data report: thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure? (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼ φ 30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength is being addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus measures the fracture strength of the crust while it is either at room temperature or above, the latter state being achieved with a heating element placed below the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the sixth water ingression test, designated SSWICS-6. This test investigated

  5. Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-6 test data report : thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-06-28

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure? (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx} {phi} 30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength is being addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus measures the fracture strength of the crust while it is either at room temperature or above, the latter state being achieved with a heating element placed below the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the sixth water ingression test, designated SSWICS-6. This test

  6. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  7. Use of a multi-species reactive transport model to simulate chloride ingress in mortar exposed to NaCl solution or sea-water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Mønster; De Weerdt, K.; Johannesson, Björn;

    2015-01-01

    Simulations of ion ingress in Portland cement mortar using a multi-species reactive mass transport model are compared with experimental test results. The model is an extended version of the Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations, accounting for chemical equilibrium. Saturated mortar samples were exposed...

  8. Autonomous urban reconnaissance ingress system (AURIS): providing a tactically relevant autonomous door-opening kit for unmanned ground vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shane, David J.; Rufo, Michael A.; Berkemeier, Matthew D.; Alberts, Joel A.

    2012-06-01

    The Autonomous Urban Reconnaissance Ingress System (AURIS™) addresses a significant limitation of current military and first responder robotics technology: the inability of reconnaissance robots to open doors. Leveraging user testing as a baseline, the program has derived specifications necessary for military personnel to open doors with fielded UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles), and evaluates the technology's impact on operational mission areas: duration, timing, and user patience in developing a tactically relevant, safe, and effective system. Funding is provided through the US ARMY Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) and the project represents a leap forward in perception, autonomy, robotic implements, and coordinated payload operation in UGVs. This paper describes high level details of specification generation, status of the last phase of development, an advanced view of the system autonomy capability, and a short look ahead towards the ongoing work on this compelling and important technology.

  9. Stochastic Simulation of Chloride Ingress into Reinforced Concrete Structures by Means of Multi-Dimensional Gaussian Random Fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, Christian; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2005-01-01

    For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of the reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in expensive maintenance and repair actions. Further, a significant reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. One mode of corrosion initiation occurs when the chloride content...... around the reinforcement exceeds a critical threshold value. In the present paper FERM (the Finite Element Reliability Method) is employed for obtaining the probability of exceeding a critical chloride concentration level at the reinforcement bars using MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation). The chloride ingress...... is modeled by a 2-dimensional diffusion process by FEM (Finite Element Method) and the diffusion coefficient, surface chloride concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by multidimensional stochastic fields, which are discretized using the EOLE (Expansion Optimum Linear Estimation...

  10. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  11. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  12. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  13. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  14. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  15. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  16. A novel isolation curtain to reduce turbine ingress heating and an advanced model for honeycomb labyrinth seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Dong Chun

    A combination of 3-D and 2-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling as well as experimental testing of the labyrinth seal with hexagonal honeycomb cells on the stator wall was performed. For the 3-D and 2-D CFD models, the hexagonal honeycomb structure was modeled using the concept of the baffle (zero-thickness wall) and the simplified 2-D fin, respectively. The 3-D model showed that even a small axial change of the tooth (or honeycomb wall) location, or a small circumferential change of the honeycomb wall location significantly affected the flow patterns and leakage characteristics especially for small tooth tip clearance. Also, the local details of the flow field were investigated. The seven basic procedural steps to develop a 2-D axisymmetric honeycomb labyrinth seal leakage model were shown. Clearly demonstrated for varying test conditions was the 2-D model capability to predict the 3-D honeycomb labyrinth flow that had been measured at different operating conditions from that used in developing the 2-D model. Specifically, the 2-D model showed very close agreement with measurements. In addition, the 2-D model greatly reduced the computer resource requirement needed to obtain a solution of the 3-D honeycomb labyrinth seal leakage. The novel and advanced strategy to reduce the turbine ingress heating, and thus the coolant requirement, by injecting a "coolant isolation curtain" was developed numerically using a 3-D CFD model. The coolant isolation curtain was applied under the nozzle guide vane platform for the forward cavity of a turbine stage. Specifically, the isolation curtain serves to isolate the hot mainstream gas from the turbine outer region. The effect of the geometry change, the outer cavity axial gap clearance, the circumferential location of the injection curtain slot and the injection fluid angle on the ingress heating was investigated. Adding the chamfer to the baseline design gave a similar or higher maximum temperature T*max than did the

  17. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) design report, Rev. 2 October 31, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, M.; Lomperski, S.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.; Pfeiffer, P. (Nuclear Engineering Division); (NRC)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are planned to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. A description of the test apparatus, instrumentation, data reduction, and test matrix are the subject of the first portion of this report. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The introduction of a thermal gradient across the crust is thought to be important for these tests because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the thermal stresses and thus their

  18. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  19. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  20. Fick's 2nd law - Complete solutions for chloride ingress into concrete – with focus on time dependent diffusivity and boundary condition

    OpenAIRE

    Frederiksen, Jens M.; Mejlbro, Leif; Nilsson, Lars-Olof

    2009-01-01

    This report focuses on models of chloride ingress into concrete that are based on mathematical solutions of Fick's second law. In recent years a lot of confusion has been identified concerning these models. In some cases time-dependencies of diffusivity have been used in a mathematically incorrect way. In other cases field and laboratory data from one way of describing the time-dependency of these diffusivities has been used in models that are based on another model. This is now clarified...

  1. An Accelerated Test Method of Simultaneous Carbonation and Chloride Ion Ingress: Durability of Silica Fume Concrete in Severe Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Ghahari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack on mechanical characteristics and durability of concrete containing silica fume have been investigated through an accelerated test method. Specimens containing different amounts of silica fume were maintained in an apparatus in which carbon dioxide pressure and concentration and relative humidity were kept constant, and wetting and drying cycles in saline water were applied. Surface resistivity, sorptivity, CO2 consumption, and carbonation and chloride ion ingress depths measurements were taken. Phase change due to carbonation and chloride ion attack was monitored by XRD analysis, and microstructures and interfacial transition zones were studied by implementing SEM as well as mercury intrusion porosimetry. It was expected to have a synergistic effect in the tidal zone where simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack happen. However, the observed reduced surface resistivity, compared to specimens maintained in CO2 gas, could be due to the moisture that is available near the surface, hindering CO2 from penetrating into the pores of the specimens. Moreover, the porosity analysis of the specimens showed that the sample containing silica fume cured in the tidal zone had 50.1% less total porosity than the plain cement paste cured in the same condition.

  2. National Coal Utilization Assessment. a preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the Midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents an initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for 1975-2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. The following are among the more significant issues identified and evaluated in this study: If environmental and related issues can be resolved, coal will continue to be a major source of energy for the Midwest; existing sulfur emission constraints will increase use of western coal; the resource requirements and environmental impacts of coal utilization will require major significant environmental and economic tradeoffs in site selection; short-term (24-hr) ambient standards for sulfur dioxide will limit the sizes of coal facilities or require advanced control technologies; an impact on public health may result from long-range transport of airborne sulfur emissions from coal facilities in the Midwest; inadequately controlled effluents from coal gasification may cause violations of water-quality standards; the major ecological effects of coal extraction are from pre-mining and post-reclamation land use; and sulfur dioxide is the major potential contributor to effects on vegetation of atmospheric emissions from coal facilities.

  3. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  4. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  5. The Earth: Present Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Nishad Gopal Deshpande

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the present scenario of our motherly loved planet ‘Earth’ is presented. We are living in one of the most developed phases of the Earth’s life cycle. The choices we make today will determine the life on the Earth, tomorrow. Problems that are been created by us and the consequences we are going to face are discussed in length. Some statistical data is provided to get a brief idea. Measure/prevention(s) to combat the upcoming problems have been putforth.

  6. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther [James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  7. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  8. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  9. Quantifying four scenarios for Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Arjan Lejour

    2003-01-01

    This study presents four economic scenarios for Europe until 2040. The scenarios are developed around two key uncertainties: international cooperation and institutional reforms. In the scenarios Strong Europe (SE) and Global Economy (GE), international cooperation is prominent, while the other scenarios, Regional Communities (RC) and Transatlantic Market (TM), feature limited international cooperation. Public institutions are important in Strong Europe and Regional Communities. In Global Econ...

  10. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  12. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  13. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...

  14. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  15. Modelling of cladding oxidation by air under severe accident conditions with the MAAP 4 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a nuclear power plant, air ingress into the vessel is a potential risk in some low probable situations of severe accidents. Air is a highly oxidizing atmosphere that can lead to an enhanced core oxidation and degradation affecting the release of FP. This is particularly true speaking about ruthenium release, which can be significantly increased in the presence of air. This is a key issue due to the high radio-toxicity of ruthenium and its ability to form highly volatile oxides. The oxygen affinity is decreasing in priority from the Zircaloy cladding, to fuel and ruthenium inclusions. It is consequently of great need to understand the phenomena governing cladding oxidation by air as a prerequisite for the source term issues in such scenarios. As a first step, a phenomenological study has been carried out to characterize nitriding of the Zircaloy claddings. In summary, nitriding occurs preferentially when the oxygen has been consumed locally or in case of total oxygen starvation and when the cladding was slightly pre-oxidized. Just like oxidation, nitriding can be modeled in a simplified form as a cladding weight gain in terms of thickness. The model implemented in MAAP takes this into account as well as re-oxidation of the nitrides, in the case where oxygen is available again (especially during a reflood). Several correlations were thus integrated and a new one, called “KIT-EDF”, was developed, based on KIT separate-effect tests. The model has been implemented and validated against QUENCH-16 and QUENCH-10 experiments, studying the oxidation in air atmosphere of an assembly pre-oxidized in steam and finally quenched with water. The simulations give encouraging results since the modeling of nitriding effects has increased hydrogen production during reflood, as experimentally observed. The results of this study lead us to identify a number of perspectives for the future, namely taking into account the changes in the structure of the oxide layer during a

  16. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  17. NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS - SCENARIOS FOR ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    Herciu, Mihaela

    2012-01-01

    Competitiveness remains a continuous concern of nations in any stage of development, from factor based economy to innovation based economy. The present paper aims to emphasize the current level of national competitiveness of Romania, on one hand, and to identify possible ways to improve the current level by building scenarios in order to eliminate the uncertainty, on the other hand. The paper proposes four scenarios for increase GCI (growth competitiveness index) and four scenarios from pessi...

  18. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    makes physical sense for the design engineer, i.e. the achieved chloride diffusion coefficients at 1 year and 100 years, D1 and D100 respectively, and the corresponding achieved chloride concentrations at the exposed concrete surface, C1 and C100. Data from field exposure supports the assumption of time...... dependent surface chloride concentrations and the diffusion coefficients. Model parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash in marine atmospheric and submerged South Scandinavian environment are suggested in a companion paper based on 10 years field exposure data....

  19. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  20. Numerical simulation of the facility behaviour of a high temperature reactor under water ingress accidents at the example of the AVR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detailed analysis of massive water ingress accidents in high temperature reactors supposes a numerical simulation of the whole facility behaviour. For the AVR-reactor such a model was developed to describe both, the graphite corrosion processes and the accident transients for different releasing events as well as resulting accident profiles. The variable consideration of regulating facilities of the safety circuit being influenced in reality, enables an optimization of the accident profiles in the way of a least possible facility damage. It results that in spite of extremely conservative input data with authorization legal relevance even the possible water ingress accidents can safely be controlled after 15 years of operation with steadily increasing safety requirements. First investigations on a selected facility concept for the AVR-reequipment show, that with the definition up to now of the AVR-steam generator failure the accident profiles ''reactor under pressure'' are conservatively coped with. An increasing degree of detail of the concept proposals, however, requires an examination of this statement. (orig.)

  1. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  2. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... 68.28 Section 68.28 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... alternative release scenarios: (1) The five-year accident history provided in § 68.42; and (2) Failure... applicable as part of current practices. Proprietary models that account for the modeling conditions may...

  3. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  4. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  5. OECD MMCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 final data report, Rev. 1 February 10, 2003.; Report, Rev. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure; and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep

  6. OECD MCCI project Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 test data report : thermal hydraulic results. Rev. 0 September 20, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D. J.; Aeschlimann, R. W.; Basu, S. (Nuclear Engineering Division); (NRC)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The report includes a description of the test apparatus, the

  7. OECD MMCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-2 test data report : thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0 September 20, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D. J.; Aeschlimann, R. W.; Basu, S. (Nuclear Engineering Division); (NRC)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the second water ingression test, designated SSWICS-2. The report includes a description of the test apparatus, the

  8. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-3 test data report : thermal Hydraulic results, Rev. 0 February 19, 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the third water ingression test, designated SSWICS-3. This test investigated the quenching behavior of a fully

  9. OECM MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-2 final data report, Rev. 0 February 12, 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the second water ingression test, designated SSWICS-2. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep

  10. Oxygen Selective Membranes for Li-Air (O2 Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Salomon

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-air (Li-air batteries have a much higher theoretical energy density than conventional lithium batteries and other metal air batteries, so they are being developed for applications that require long life. Water vapor from air must be prevented from corroding the lithium (Li metal negative electrode during discharge under ambient conditions, i.e., in humid air. One method of protecting the Li metal from corrosion is to use an oxygen selective membrane (OSM that allows oxygen into the cell while stopping or slowing the ingress of water vapor. The desired properties and some potential materials for OSMs for Li-air batteries are discussed and the literature is reviewed.

  11. Reduction in cobalt ingress from fuelling machine stellite wear products into primary heat transport system: results from modeling assessment of ion exchange clean-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analysis of the benefit of installing ion exchange capability in the heavy water auxiliary system of a Darlington fuelling machine. An overall mass balance model was developed to estimate the potential reduction in cobalt ingress from the fuelling machine into the primary heat transport system. The analysis considered generation terms from a) on-going ram ball wear and b) dissolution from the surfaces of trapped filter particulates as well as from ram ball surfaces and removal terms arising from a) flow injection into the reactor system, b) filtration and c) ion exchange. Model equations were solved for each activity in the fueling cycle to determine the aggregate behavior over an extended period of operation. Results from model calculations suggest that, without ion exchange provisions, about 16.7 g/year of cobalt enters the reactor system from each fuelling machine. The majority of this cobalt (66%) is in particulate form with the balance being in dissolved form (soluble as well as colloidal). Most of the dissolved cobalt (80 %) is generated from the surfaces of the ram balls, the remainder being from the surfaces of the trapped filter particulates. The potential reduction in cobalt ingress from ion exchange operation was estimated to be 21% or 3.5 g/year per fuelling machine. Based on a postulated growth curve for the Co-60 reactor face fields, estimates were also obtained for the net plant dose savings that would result from ion exchange operation. This was estimated for the period 2010 - 2022 to exceed 480 rem. Based on the analysis performed, installation of ion exchange purification capability in the heavy water auxiliary system is strongly recommended. (author)

  12. Forest fires and air quality under a climate change scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela Victorino

    2008-01-01

    Os incêndios florestais e a qualidade do ar em cenário de alteração climática constituem uma das maiores ameaças ao desenvolvimento sustentável. Nestes sentido, este trabalho pretende avaliar o impacte das alterações climáticas nos incêndios florestais e na qualidade do ar. A análise estatística de doze distritos Portugueses revelou que a meteorologia e as componentes do índice Canadiano de risco de incêndio são as variáveis que determinam os números dos incêndios florestais...

  13. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  14. Scenario Analysis of the Philippine Energy Market

    OpenAIRE

    Fe Amor Parel Gudmundsson 1975

    2014-01-01

    This research project investigates the Philippine energy market. The main objective is to provide alternative scenarios, based on the propositions which are generated from literature review. Scenario Analysis is used as the primary tool for the analysis using the Delphi method which includes eight panel of experts as participants. Findings of this research concludes three scenarios: Policy Scenario, Sustainability Scenario, and Energy Price Scenario. Political will is important to address th...

  15. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif;

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  16. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  17. Modelling internal air systems in gas turbine engines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J Michael Owen

    2007-01-01

    Rotating-disc systems can be used to model,experimentally and computationally,the flow and heat transfer that occur inside the internal cooling-air systems of gas turbine engines.These rotating-disc systems have been used successfully to simplify and understand some of the complex flows that occur in internal-air systems,and designers have used this insight to improve the cooling effectiveness,thereby increasing the engine efficiency and reducing the emissions.In this review paper,three important cases are considered:hot-gas ingress;the pre-swirl system;and buoyancy-induced flow.Ingress,or ingestion,occurs when hot gas from the mainstream gas path is ingested into the wheel-space between the turbine disc and its adjacent casing.Rim seals are fitted at the periphery of the system,and sealing flow is used to reduce or prevent ingress.However,too much sealing air reduces the engine efficiency,and too little can cause serious overheating,resulting in damage to the turbine rim and blade roots.Although the flow is three-dimensional and unsteady,there are encouraging signs that simple 'orifice models' could be used to estimate the amount of ingress into the wheel-space.In a pre-swirl system,the cooling air for the gas-turbine blades is swirled by stationary nozzles,and the air is delivered to the blades via receiver holes in the rotating turbine disc.Swirling the air reduces its temperature relative to the rotating blades,and the designer needs to calculate the air temperature and pressure drop in the system.The designer also needs to calculate the effect of this swirling flow on the heat transfer from the turbine disc to the air,as this has a significant effect on the temperature distribution and stresses in the disc.Recent experimental and computational studies have given a better understanding of the flow and heat transfer in these systems.Buoyancy-induced flow occurs in the cavity between two co-rotating compressor discs when the temperature of the discs is higher

  18. Particle Production in Ekpyrotic Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Hipolito-Ricaldi, W S; Ferreira, Elisa G M; Graef, L L

    2016-01-01

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction is sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  19. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  20. Chemical evolution in hierarchical scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tissera P.B.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We studied the chemical properties of Milky-Way mass galaxies. We found common global chemical patterns with particularities which reflect their different assembly histories in a hierarchical scenario. We carried out a comprehensively analysis of the dynamical components (central spheroid, disc, inner and outer haloes and their chemical properties.

  1. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  2. Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

  3. Potential of ANSYS CFX 12 for the determination of the minimum cover of pump intake nozzles to avoid air entrainment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For a reliable and economic pump operation the homogeneous fluid influx is an important parameter. Unfavorable influx conditions cause vibrations, noise development, decrease or breakdown of the delivery rate and increased power consumption. Very often air ingress due to turbulences in the intake region of the pump is causing the disturbances. The authors show that the CFD code ABSYS CFX 12 allows - at least for rotation-free inlet flow - to identify the water surface deformation and to determine the required minimum water cover to avoid air entrainment. Further mesh refinement and improved modeling of the two-phase flow could enhance the quantitative agreement with experimental data.

  4. Organizational scenarios for the use of learning objects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, Henry; De Vries, Fred

    2006-01-01

    Organizational scenarios presents the following three scenarios for working with learning objects in Dutch higher education and institutions: Scenario 1: Self-regulation (community scenario) Scenario 2: Institutional regulation Scenario 3: Network organization This document is aimed at policy makers

  5. On numerical calculation of an assimilation factor of variable heat ingress at automation of microclimate systems (rus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azivskaya S.S.

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the nature of activity of the automated ventilating systems and air conditionings (V and AC under condition of their regulation "on deviation" is reviewed. The analysis of processes descending in V and AC and maintained room is given. The outcomes of numerical calculation of a non-steady thermal mode of a room with the computer program designed by authors are adduced. The confrontation of the obtained outcomes to the data designed before an approximated analytical technique is conducted. The identification of analytical model with selection of best values of numerical constants is carried out. The presentation is illustrated by a significant amount of a graphic stuff.

  6. Clutter Loss Modelling for Low Elevation Link Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Valtr

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of the accuracy of several deterministic and semideterministic propagation models related to calculating clutter loss for low elevation links is presented. Predictions are compared with measurements carried out at 2 GHz over three locations. By comparing prediction and measurement techniques, improved predictive capabilities of deterministic models are demonstrated and quantified in cases where a description of the propagation environment exists and an air-to-ground scenario is considered.

  7. Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution is a mixture of solid particles and gases in the air. Car emissions, chemicals from factories, dust, pollen and ... Ozone, a gas, is a major part of air pollution in cities. When ozone forms air pollution, ...

  8. Clean Energy Scenario for Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Srivastav, Pushkar K

    2008-01-01

    The focus of this study was to develop energy futures under different growthconditions in Nepal for 2050 and describes how the sustainable energy supply can bemade by using backcasting method to develop scenarios.The major distinguishingcharacteristic of backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what futures are likely tohappen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It involves workingbackwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present in order todetermine the ph...

  9. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  10. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  11. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  12. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  13. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  14. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system. Part 2: computed scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a 'Conventional Wisdom' scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the 'Biofuel Crops' scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the 'No Biofuels' scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the 'Ocean Realignment' scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided. 26 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  15. Some perspective decisions for the regeneration system equipment of the thermal and nuclear power plants decreasing the probability of water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonov, N. N.; Svyatkin, F. A.; Sintsova, T. G.; Ukhanova, M. G.; Yesin, S. B.; Nikolayenkova, E. K.; Yurchenko, A. Yu.; Grigorieva, E. B.

    2016-03-01

    The regeneration system heaters are one of the sources of possible ingress of the water into the turbine. The water penetrates into the turbine either at the heaters overflow or with the return flow of steam generated when the water being in the heater boils up in the dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit. The return flow of steam and water is dangerous to the turbine blades and can result in the rotor acceleration. The known protective devices used to prevent the overflow of the low-pressure and high-pressure heaters (LPH and HPH), of the horizontal and vertical heaters of heating-system water (HWH and VWH), as well as of the deaerators and low-pressure mixing heaters (LPMH) were considered. The main protective methods of the steam and water return flows supplied by the heaters in dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit are described. Previous operating experience shows that the available protections do not fully prevent water ingress into the turbine and the rotor acceleration and, therefore, the development of measures to decrease the possibility of ingress of the water into the turbine is an actual problem. The measures allowing eliminating or reducing the water mass in the heaters are expounded; some of them were designed by the specialists of OAO Polzunov Scientific and Development Association on Research and Design of Power Equipment (NPO CKTI) and are efficiently introduced at heat power plants and nuclear power plants. The suggested technical solutions allow reducing the possibility of the water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow in the dynamic operation modes or in the case of power generating unit deenergization. Some of these solutions have been tested in experimental-industrial exploitation and can be used in industry.

  16. Significant performance enhancement of yttrium-doped barium cerate proton conductor as electrolyte for solid oxide fuel cells through a Pd ingress-egress approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Ran, Ran; Li, Sidian; Jiao, Yong; Tade, Moses O.; Shao, Zongping

    2014-07-01

    Proton-conducting perovskite oxides are excellent electrolyte materials for SOFCs that may improve power density at reduced temperatures and increase fuel efficiency, thus encouraging the widespread implementation of this attractive technology. The main challenges in the application of these oxides in SOFCs are difficult sintering and insufficient conductivity in real cells. In this study, we propose a novel method to significantly enhance the performance of a yttrium-doped barium cerate proton conductor as an electrolyte for SOFCs through a Pd ingress-egress approach to the development of BaCe0.8Y0.1Pd0.1O3-δ (BCYP10). The capability of the Pd egress from the BCYP10 perovskite lattice is demonstrated by H2-TPR, XRD, EDX mapping of STEM and XPS. Significant improvement in the sinterability is observed after the introduction of Pd due to the increased ionic conductivity and the sintering aid effect of egressed Pd. The formation of a B-site cation defect structure after Pd egress and the consequent modification of perovskite grain boundaries with Pd nanoparticles leads to a proton conductivity of BCYP10 that is approximately 3 times higher than that of BCY under a reducing atmosphere. A single cell with a thin film BCYP10 electrolyte reaches a peak power density as high as 645 mA cm-2 at 700 °C.

  17. Marine Ingressive Events Recorded in Epicontinental Sequences:Example from the Cretaceous Songliao Basin of NE China in Comparison with the Triassic Central Europe Basin of SW Germany

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Pujun; LIU Wanzhu; YIN Xiuzhen; SCHNEIDER Werner; MATTERN Frank

    2002-01-01

    Songliao Basin is filled predominantly with continental facies sediments including alluvial fan, fluvial plain, fan delta, lacustrine delta, shore - shallow lacustrine, beach salty flat, semi - deep to deep lacustrine, subaqueous gravity flow,lacustrine swamp and pyroclastic sediments. However, some event units were formed during lake - marine linking periods of the Mid - Cretaceous in the basin, which include black shales with high values for salinity (Sr/Ba) , alkalinity ( Ca + Mg)/(Si + Al) , reducibility (Ni + Zn)/Ga and sulfide sulfur as well as heavy isotopes. The Breitenholz -section to be represented for facies comparison with the Cretaceous evaporitic series in Northeast China is localized in Southwest Germany. Stratigraphically it belongs to the Crabfeld Formation of Keuper of the Germanic Triassic corresponding to Ladinian - Carnian of the international reference scale, and is generally called Lower Gipskeuper. The Germanic Triassic was deposited in the epicontinental (cratonic) central Europe Basin. It covered the area in between Great Britain, North Sea, Poland and Southern Germany. It is composed of cyclic deposits of multicolored mudstones, gypsum/anhydrite, and dolomite beds. The two cases of marine ingression - influenced sequences share some common features.

  18. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  19. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    CERN Document Server

    Blanchet, Steve

    2012-01-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments in recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  20. Emergent physics: Fermi point scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Volovik, G E

    2008-01-01

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally 4-dimensional; Universe is naturally flat; cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; `quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity; etc.

  1. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  2. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  3. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...

  4. Co-benefits of air quality and climate change policies on air quality of the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Unal, Alper; Kindap, Tayfun; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world where significant impacts due to climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. Observations and model simulations are used to provide to the policy makers scientifically based estimates of the necessity to adjust national emission reductions needed to achieve air quality objectives in the context of a changing climate, which is not only driven by GHGs, but also by short lived climate pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols. There is an increasing interest and need to design cost-benefit emission reduction strategies, which could improve both regional air quality and global climate change. In this study we used the WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and particulate matter concentrations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and to understand how this contribution could change in different future scenarios. We have investigated four different future scenarios for year 2050 defined during the European Project CIRCE: a "business as usual" scenario (BAU) where no or just actual measures are taken into account; an "air quality" scenario (BAP) which implements the National Emission Ceiling directive 2001/81/EC member states of the European Union (EU-27); a "climate change" scenario (CC) which implements global climate policies decoupled from air pollution policies; and an "integrated air quality and climate policy" scenario (CAP) which explores the co-benefit of global climate and EU-27 air pollution policies. The BAP scenario largely decreases summer ozone concentrations over almost the entire continent, while the CC and CAP scenarios similarly determine lower decreases in summer ozone but extending all over the Mediterranean, the Middle East countries and Russia. Similar patterns are found for winter PM concentrations; BAP scenario improves pollution levels only in the Western EU countries, and the CAP scenario determines

  5. Air Abrasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... delivered directly to your desktop! more... What Is Air Abrasion? Article Chapters What Is Air Abrasion? What Happens? The Pros and Cons Will I Feel Anything? Is Air Abrasion for Everyone? print full article print this ...

  6. Benchmark scenarios for the NMSSM

    CERN Document Server

    Djouadi, A; Ellwanger, U; Godbole, R; Hugonie, C; King, S F; Lehti, S; Moretti, S; Nikitenko, A; Rottlander, I; Schumacher, M; Teixeira, A

    2008-01-01

    We discuss constrained and semi--constrained versions of the next--to--minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (NMSSM) in which a singlet Higgs superfield is added to the two doublet superfields that are present in the minimal extension (MSSM). This leads to a richer Higgs and neutralino spectrum and allows for many interesting phenomena that are not present in the MSSM. In particular, light Higgs particles are still allowed by current constraints and could appear as decay products of the heavier Higgs states, rendering their search rather difficult at the LHC. We propose benchmark scenarios which address the new phenomenological features, consistent with present constraints from colliders and with the dark matter relic density, and with (semi--)universal soft terms at the GUT scale. We present the corresponding spectra for the Higgs particles, their couplings to gauge bosons and fermions and their most important decay branching ratios. A brief survey of the search strategies for these states a...

  7. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  8. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  9. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  10. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  11. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  12. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  13. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam

    2016-02-01

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  14. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  15. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  16. Assessing supervisory scenarios for interest rate risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Jose A.; Christensen, Jens H.E.

    2015-01-01

    A new proposal by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision for setting the amount of capital banks must hold against potential losses from interest rate risk uses only a few, very stylized scenarios. Analysis shows the proposed scenarios are extremely unlikely to occur. While they may be appropriate for setting bank capital guidelines, they are much less relevant for everyday risk management. Instead, using a modeling framework with a plausible range of interest rate scenarios would be more...

  17. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  18. Spatially comprehensive data for forestry scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Barth, Andreas

    2007-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the use of forest data for national level policy making. Three major issues were considered: (i) to determine typical requirements of data in forestry scenario analysis, (ii) to evaluate and further develop methods to determine data requirements, and (iii) to develop methods that improve data usability in forestry scenario analysis. Increasingly, the trend is to use spatially comprehensive data as a basis for forestry scenario analysis. Compared to traditional approache...

  19. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    OpenAIRE

    Peeters, M.M.M.; van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conducted an experiment to investigate whether directing training scenarios improves the quality of training. Six instructors rated video fragments of directed and non-directed scenarios in terms of learn...

  20. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  1. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  2. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  3. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  4. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  5. Air Composition and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brimblecombe, Peter

    1996-01-01

    This book is about the atmosphere and humanity's influence on it. For this new edition, Brimblecombe has rewritten and updated much of the book. In the early chapters, he discusses the geochemical, biological and maritime sources of the trace gases. Next, he examines the chemistry of atmospheric gases, suspended particles, and rainfall. After dealing with the natural atmosphere, he examines the sources of air pollution and its effects, with all scenarios updated from the last edition. Scenarios include decline in health, damage to plants and animals, indoor pollution, and acid rain. The final chapters, also revised, are concerned with the chemistry and evolution of the atmospheres of the planets of the solar system. Students with an interest in chemistry and the environmental sciences will find this book highly valuable.

  6. Chemical aspects of hydrogen ingress in zirconium and zircaloy pressure tubes: ageing management of Indian PHWR coolant channels - determination of hydrogen and deuterium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) use zirconium and zirconium based alloys as clad and coolant tubes since its beginning. The first ever zircaloy-2 pressure tube failure occurred in 1983 at Ontario Hydro's Pickering Unit 2 in Canada which necessitated a thorough examination of causes of such failure. The failure was attributed to massive hydriding at the failed spot of pressure tube. Continuous usage of zirconium alloys could result in their hydrogen and deuterium pick-up leading to hydrogen/ deuterium embrittlement. The life of the zircaloy coolant channels is dictated by hydrogen/deuterium content and hence ageing management of the pressure tubes is essential for ensuring their trouble-free usage. It is desirable to have a sound knowledge on the chemical aspects of zirconium and zirconium based alloys metallurgy, the mechanistic principles of hydrogen ingress into the pressure tubes during in reactor service, and identifying suitable analytical methodologies for precise and accurate determination of hydrogen in wafer thin sliver samples carved out from insides of pressure tubes without causing any structural damage so that it can continue to remain in service. This is desirable so that the ageing management does not result in cost-escalation. This report is divided in to three main parts. The first part deals with the chemical aspects of zirconium and zirconium based alloy metallurgy, the mechanism of hydrogen pick-up and hydride formation in zirconium matrix. The second part describes various methodologies and their limitations, available for hydrogen/deuterium determination. The third part deals in detail, about the extensive investigations carried out at Radioanalytical Chemistry Division (RACD) in Radiochemistry and Isotope Group for establishing an indigenously developed hot vacuum extraction system in combination with quadrupole mass spectrometry for precise determination of hydrogen and deuterium in wafer thin sliver sample of zircaloy. The

  7. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  8. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  9. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  10. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Polizer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A.C.C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V.V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prosp

  11. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...... have accepted both functional foods and genetically modified foods. They have confidence in modern food production and believe they are well informed and have a realistic picture of how to produce modern foods. The last scenario 'Tight spending' is based on a lower disposable income and extensive...

  12. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  13. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  14. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  15. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  16. An "acceptable" low carbon scenario for France: Participatory scenario design and economic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

    2012-01-01

    The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public di...

  17. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    OpenAIRE

    Mathy, Sandrine

    2015-01-01

    International audience This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the p...

  18. Scenario development for reaching urban and environmental planning integration in the context of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagare, V.M.E.; Sepulveda Carmona, D.A.

    2014-01-01

    Presentation based on a research done by appointment of Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA, USA. Nov 2013. Scenarios for an integral approach to urban and environmental dimensions in the Lower Parana Delta (Argentina). Consortia UBA-SU Buenos Aires-TUD

  19. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  20. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  1. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    of the Danish food industry. A scenario is a description of a possible and likely future and can be used to explore future developments. What will happen in the food industry if sales of functional foods increase? - What will happen if e-commerce seriously strikes through in the food industry? The purpose...... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...

  2. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  3. Energy prospects for the sector Transportation. Scenario IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, mathematical models are used to predict the energy consumption by the year 2030 of the whole transportation sector including air traffic for Switzerland. In the so-called Scenario IV considered here, stringent but still realistic assumptions are made regarding technologies, taxes and legislation while economic growth is retained as an essential background feature as in previous scenarios with less stringent measures. Fossil fuels still are the main energy source for road and air transportation, but drastic efficiency improvements reduce the specific fuel consumption: (i) with an average reduction of 3% a year, the specific consumption of cars falls from 9 litre/100 km in 1990 down to less than 3 litre/100 km in 2030; (ii) for lorries, it falls from 30 down to 22 litre/100 km in the same time period; (iii) the energy efficiency improvement up to 2030 is 45% for the air traffic, under the assumption of an internationally harmonised kerosene tax. In parallel, fuel market price increase, so that the energy expenses remain constant for most vehicles. For goods transportation by rail an efficiency improvement of 33% is assumed, so that a partial shift from the road to the rail takes place. For passengers transportation by rail, better comfort, more frequent trains and extended regional tariff agreements stimulate an increased usage of public transportation systems. Measures are also considered in the fields of urbanism (where to live and where to work) and traffic management (avoidance of empty courses for lorries). Altogether, the measures described lead to an annual final-energy consumption of 148 PJ in 2030 for Switzerland, compared to 251 PJ in 1990

  4. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Horowitz, Larry W.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A.; Ginoux, Paul; Josse, Batrice; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; OConnor, Fiona M.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Shindell, Drew Todd; Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  5. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  6. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  7. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  8. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  9. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  10. Type Ia supernovae and the DD scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Isern, J; Lorén-Aguilar, P

    2011-01-01

    Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

  11. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  12. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  13. Pseudo-Dirac Scenario for Neutrino Oscillations

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Makoto; Lim, C. S.

    2000-01-01

    We argue how pseudo-Dirac scenario for neutrinos leads to rich neutrino oscillation phenomena, including oscillation inside each generation. The pseudo-Dirac scenario is generalized by incorporating generation mixings and formulae for the various neutrino oscillations are derived. As the application we compare the formulae with the corresponding data. We find that observed pattern of mixings, such as almost maximal mixing in the atmospheric neutrino oscillation, is naturally explained in the ...

  14. Eco-correlation in acidification scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    The bulk of acid depositions, which have harmful effects on the environment, are caused by foreign emissions in many European countries. Therefore, if some countries emit more acids, one cannot be sure that countries that emit less will benefit from reduced acid depositions. However, numerical simulations with the RAINS model indicate that differences in costs and acid depositions are negatively correlated when equally expensive cost-effective scenarios for Europe are compared, and scenarios ...

  15. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  16. Event scenarios of development of ukraine

    OpenAIRE

    Панасенко, С. В.

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to solving the current problem of finding ways to develop Ukrainian society. Today even amid sharp massive contradictions, split between the people and formal authority, this question still remains open and needs to be solved. Analysis of recent researches and publications shows that the different scenarios and vectors of possible development of Ukraine are discussed. However, among the specified prospects we can see that the negative scenarios of the future of Ukraine ...

  17. Transaction Scripts: Making Implicit Scenarios Explicit

    OpenAIRE

    Moschoyiannis, S.; Razavi, A.; Krause, P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a true-concurrent approach for managing dependencies between distributed and concurrent coordinator components of a long-running transaction. In previous work we have described how interactions specified in a scenario can be translated into a tuples-based behavioural description, namely vector languages. In this paper we show how reasoning against order-theoretic properties of such languages can reveal missing behaviours which are not explicitly described in the scenario but are s...

  18. Numerical assessment of non-uniform corrosion scenarios of rebar in concrete exposed to natural chloride environment

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Muthulingam; B N Rao

    2015-06-01

    Corrosion of embedded rebars is a classical deterioration mechanism that remains as one of the most significant problems limiting the service life of concrete structures exposed to chloride-laden environments. The primary objective of this study is to propose and verify a numerical framework that can efficiently quantify non-uniform corrosion penetration depth along the perimeter of the rebar in concrete exposed to chloride environment. This framework investigates the corrosion process during both the corrosion initiation and propagation phases by exploring the effects of not only the rebar existence but also its sizes and locations. The corrosion initiation phase is examined through a comprehensive chloride ingress model that identifies the most important parameters that influence the intrusion of chlorides into RC. The corrosion propagation phase is studied based on a decisive parameter, namely, the corrosion rate. In addition, the framework evaluates the non-uniform corrosion states that correspond to two scenarios of corrosion penetration depth: corrosion of segment of the rebar and uneven corrosion along the rebar perimeter. Numerical solution shows that, in general, chloride build-up along the perimeter of the corner bar is not only faster but also higher than that of the middle bar. Moreover, for the given values of cover thickness and water-to-binder ratio, time-to-corrosion initiation for the corner bar is faster than that for the middle bar. Furthermore, the larger the rebar, in general, the bigger the obstruction, and therefore, the higher the chloride build-up. Qualitative comparisons of the evaluated non-uniform corrosion scenarios with the variety of available laboratory and field data show good agreement.

  19. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  20. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  1. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  2. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  3. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  4. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ−1), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ−1). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  5. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  6. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  7. Scenarios selection for a simple concept landfill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios are used to deal with uncertainty on the evolution of complex systems. The scenario selection methodologies also have to provide a basis for reflexion and traceability of the reasoning. A scenario selection method has been developed for the case of disposal of uranium mill tailings in a landfill site. In the case of a simple concept landfill, a methodology that fulfils these requirements has been developed. It distinguishes on the one hand the landfill evolution, and on the other hand, the human behavior evolution. It is based on three steps: (i) characterization of the landfill itself, in order to define situations leading to releases of radionuclides, (ii) characterization of the human behavior in order to define situations leading to intrusions, and (iii) characterization of the interfaces between the two subsystems, in order to identify situations which could lead to a radiological risk for man. The method, applied to performance assessment for landfill of uranium mill tailings, has led to one reference scenario, and five altered scenarios taking into account specific landfill evolutions such as loss of covering or loss of integrity of the dike, and human intrusions such as housing on the site of landfill or excavation of the site. Copyright (2001) Material Research Society

  8. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

  9. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  10. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  11. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  12. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  13. Emission Scenarios for Methane and Nitrous Oxides from the Agricultural Sector in the EU-25

    OpenAIRE

    Hoeglund-Isaksson, L.; W. Winiwarter; Z. Klimont; I. Bertok

    2006-01-01

    This report presents three emission scenarios of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from the agricultural sector of the EU-25 until 2020. These scenarios explore the likely implications of changes in agricultural production due to the - implementations of the EU Agenda 2000 CAP Reform of 1999 and the EU Nitrates Directive of 1991 (as used for the analyses of the EU Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme), - the implementation of the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and from anticipated i...

  14. Thin air

    OpenAIRE

    Jasanoff, Sheila

    2013-01-01

    Clearing the air How do we grasp the air? Without Michel Callon’s guidance, I might never have asked that question. Years ago, when I first entered environmental law practice, I took it for granted that problems such as air pollution exist “out there” in the real world for science to discover and law to fix. It is a measure of Callon’s influence that I understand the law today as a metaphysical instrument, no less powerful in its capacity to order nature than the tools of the ancient oracular...

  15. 500 GeV ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brau, James E; Barklow, T; Brau, J; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design of a 500 GeV linear collider, but does not specify the center-of-mass energy steps of operation for the collider. The ILC Parameters Joint Working Group has studied possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes, and considered the evolution of the physics outcomes. These physics goals include Higgs precision measurements, top quark measurements and searches for new physics. We present an "optimized" operating scenario and the anticipated evolution of the precision of the ILC measurements.

  16. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  17. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  18. VoLTE performance in railway scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sniady, Aleksander; Sønderskov, Morten; Soler, José

    2015-01-01

    GSM-Railways (GSM-R) is the current standard for railway voice and data communication. GSM-R provides railway specific voice services, such as Railway Emergency Call (REC). GSM-R provides also the European Train Control System (ETCS), which offers in-cab signaling and Automatic Train Protection....... Examples of Railway Emergency Call and One-to-One Call are provided. Service performance, in terms of call setup times and voice transmission quality, is analyzed in simulation scenarios modelling two railway scenarios in Denmark....

  19. VoLTE Performance in Railway Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sniady, Aleksander; Sønderskov, Morten; Soler, José

    2015-01-01

    GSM-Railways (GSM-R) is the current standard for railway voice and data communication. GSM-R provides railway specific voice services, such as Railway Emergency Call (REC). GSM-R provides also the European Train Control System (ETCS), which offers in-cab signaling and Automatic Train Protection....... Examples of Railway Emergency Call and One-to-One Call are provided. Service performance, in terms of call setup times and voice transmission quality, is analyzed in simulation scenarios modelling two railway scenarios in Denmark....

  20. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  1. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.;

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple mode...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  2. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different ad

  3. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I...

  4. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  5. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  6. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  7. Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to a close in June 2013 when the company, Conscious Clothing, was awarded the My Air grand ... Page Options: Request Translation Services Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ Reddit Email Evernote More Increase Font Size Decrease ...

  8. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  9. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  10. Scenario simulation of water security in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUYANG Zhi-yun; ZHAO Tong-qian; WANG Ru-song; Leif S(O)RLUND; ZHANG Qiao-xian

    2004-01-01

    Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement.

  11. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  12. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  13. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  14. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubert, B.; Rosegrant, M.; Boekel, van M.A.J.S.; Ortiz, R.

    2010-01-01

    This background article addresses key challenges of adequately feeding a population of 9 billion by 2050, while preserving the agro-ecosystems from which other services are also expected. One of the scenario-buildings uses the Agrimonde platform, which considers the following steps: choosing the sce

  15. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  16. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  17. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  18. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  19. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  20. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  1. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  2. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  3. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  4. Improving Aircraft Design Robustness with Scenario Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Strohmayer

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Compared to other industries, the aerospace sector is characterized by long product cycles in a very complex environment. The aircraft manufacturer has to base his product strategy on a long-term view of risks and opportunities in the transport industry but he cannot predict the development of relevant factors in this market environment with any certainty. In this situation, scenario methods offer a pragmatic way to limit the uncertainties and to work them up methodically, in order to derive recommendations for cost-intensive strategic decisions like for example the go-ahead for a new aircraft concept. By including scenario methods in the aircraft design cycle, the ‘design robustness’ can be improved, i.e. the design is not optimised for a prognosticated operating environment, but can cope with various possible future developments. The paper will explain the three fundamental aspects in applying scenario planning to the aircraft design process: requirement definition, design evaluation and technology identification. For each aspect, methods will be shown, which connect the rather qualitative results of a scenario process with aircraft design, which typically demands a qualitative input.

  5. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  6. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  7. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  8. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael;

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar...

  9. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant clust

  10. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  11. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020. PMID:27325548

  12. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  13. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acc...

  14. Air surveillance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patton, G.W.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the air surveillance and monitoring programs currently in operation at that Hanford Site. Atmospheric releases of pollutants from Hanford to the surrounding region are a potential source of human exposure. For that reason, both radioactive and nonradioactive materials in air are monitored at a number of locations. The influence of Hanford emissions on local radionuclide concentrations was evaluated by comparing concentrations measured at distant locations within the region to concentrations measured at the Site perimeter. This section discusses sample collection, analytical methods, and the results of the Hanford air surveillance program. A complete listing of all analytical results summarized in this section is reported separately by Bisping (1995).

  15. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  16. Thermodynamic analysis of spent pyrochemical salts in the stored condition and in viable accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study involves examining ''spent'' electrorefining (ER) salts in the form present after usage (as stored), and then after exposure to water in a proposed accident scenario. Additionally, the equilibrium composition of the salt after extended exposure to air was also calculated by computer modeling and those results are also presented herein. It should be noted that these salts are extremely similar to spent MSE salts from the Rocky Flats MSE campaigns using NaCl-KCl- MgCl2

  17. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    will have to increase by up to 70% in order to feed the growing population projected to be around 9 billion people by 2050 with the largest increase in low-income countries. It will be a huge challenge for agriculture to meet this growing demand in a sustainable way. Besides global population increase other...... events and uncertainties, especially on long-term horizons such as 25-50 years ahead. In order to deal with these uncertainties, complexities and long-term challenges as well as to influence developments pro-actively, scenario planning is increasingly applied in both policy making and knowledge brokerage...... of different policy paths. The intention of this discussion paper is to provide background information to the third CORPUS “Policy meets Research” workshop on sustainable food consumption as part of the CORPUS project. The paper provides a short summary on the use of scenarios in evidence-based policy making...

  18. Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(102) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

  19. 3 Investment Scenarios for Fast Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results: • 4 families of scenarios: – In each of them, 3 options for national nuclear policy → 12 scenarios; – 3 favorable to FRs: - “climate constraint” with strong pro-nuclear policy - “climate constraint” with moderate pro-nuclear policy - “totally green” with strong pro-nuclear policy. • Business As Usual is not favorable to Fast Reactors; Fast reactors deployment: - Needs strong climate policy - Is viable in case of important renewable progress as long as climate policy is strong. International perspective: • Results are valid for Europe, other drivers being likely to be more important in other countries : high growth and demand (Asia); • With strong contrasts between European countries. Further research: • Finer modeling of drivers with unclear influence (clustered and excluded variables): Influence of weak signals

  20. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  1. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  2. Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Adolfo Sierra Romero

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices.

  3. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  4. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide;

    2011-01-01

    and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...... combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...

  5. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob;

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper...... with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic...... be obtained for “Global Warming”. For the other impact categories, results are affected by the assumption about the substituted marginal energy. Nevertheless, irrespective of the assumptions on marginal energy, scenario P4, which implies the highest quantities of specific polymer types sent to recycling...

  6. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  7. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Christian T; Liddle, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyse its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become non-relativistic, and change the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order $0.1$ typically. If the branching ratio is below about $10^{-4}$ it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  8. Elastic cross sections in an RSIIp scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The elastic differential cross section is calculated at low energies (below 100 MeV) for the elements 3He, 20Ne, 40Ar, 14N, 12C, and for the 208Pb using a finite electromagnetic potential, which is obtained by considering a Randall–Sundrum II scenario modified by the inclusion of p compact extra-dimensions. The length scale is adjusted in the potential to compare with known experimental data and to set bounds for the parameter of the model. The effective four-dimensional (4D) electromagnetic potential is produced by a point charge, as seen from the three-brane that contains it, in uniform motion in an RSIIp scenario. (paper)

  9. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  10. Revisiting light neutralino scenarios in the MSSM

    CERN Document Server

    Vasquez, Daniel Albornoz; Boehm, Celine

    2011-01-01

    We revisit the case of a light neutralino LSP in the framework of the MSSM. We consider a model with eleven free parameters. We show that all scenarios where the annihilation of light neutralinos rely mainly on the exchange of a light pseudoscalar are excluded by direct detection searches and by Fermi measurements of the gamma-flux from dwarf spheroidal galaxies. On the other hand, we find scenarios with light sleptons that satisfy all collider and astroparticle physics constraints. In this case, the lower limit on the LSP mass is 12.6 GeV. We discuss how the parameter space of the model will be further probed by new physics searches at the LHC.

  11. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O' Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  12. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    J. J. Corbett; D. A. Lack; J. J. Winebrake; Harder, S; J. A. Silberman; Gold, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especial...

  13. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  14. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated defi...

  15. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  16. Designing Learning Scenarios for Sustainable Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Hannah; Lundebye, Anette

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: Understanding sustainability in terms of our complex, dynamic and interconnected socio-ecological systems requires a different mindset or paradigm to the industrial mode of thinking that has influenced educational practice for the last century (Orr, 2004, Wood, 2007). Our ambitious 3-hour workshop will focus on developing scenarios as a way to prospect how design education might respond to a range of possible ecological futures at a systemic level. Method: We will use metadesign...

  17. Contingency Manager for Icarus Simulated Integrated Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez Carvajal, Juan-Jose; Caro Ignacio, Oriol

    2010-01-01

    Contingency analysis and reaction is a critical task to be carried out by any airplane to guarantee its safe operation in a non-segregated airspace. Pilot's reactions to any kind of incidences that may occur in-flight, like engine malfunctions, loss of electrical power, hydraulic failure, unexpected weather, etc, will determine the fate of the flight. Nowadays, contingency reactions are mainly driven by the airplane manufacturer, with pre-analyzed contingency scenarios covered in the airplane...

  18. A Scenario of Rainfall Erosivity Index Research

    OpenAIRE

    D .V. Pandit1; R. K. Isaac2

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity index is an important index to evaluate the soil loss due to rainfall. Rainstorm plays a paramount role in surface sealing, runoff and erosion process. Research on rainfall erosivity index is important in understanding the mechanism of soil erosion processes. This paper gives a scenario on the important research work done by the scientists to evaluate the erosivity index by using various methods and approaches. The aim of this paper was also to highl...

  19. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    OpenAIRE

    TAN, ESTHER; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social learning theory, experiential learning, situated cognition and theory of play. We then identify critical design elements for connecting in-and-out of classroom learning experiences, such as learning th...

  20. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    OpenAIRE

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera; Hindi Yousef; Diego Beltran-Melgarejo; Teng Hugh Teng; Ramos Jan; Mary Mok; Carlos Vera-Aguilera; Eduardo Moreno-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin co...

  1. Future Scenario of Renewable Energy in India

    OpenAIRE

    Sandeep Kumar; Mohit Rathi; Aloy Palit; Puneet Nandrajog

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a review about future scenario of renewable energy in India.Energy is a vital input for economic and social development of any country. With increasing industrialand agricultural activities in the country, the demand for energy is also rising. Solar, wind and biomassare accepted as dependable and widely available renewable sources of energy. To meet the energy requirement for such a fast growingeconomy, India will require an assured supply of 3–5 times more energy than the...

  2. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  3. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  4. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  5. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  6. The negaWatt scenario 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the development of energetic sobriety, energy efficiency and the use of renewable energies, and after having stressed the urgency of an energetic transition, the authors propose a scenario for the 2012-2050 period which integrates social and environmental criteria, uses realistic and mature solutions regarding technological choices, takes not only the struggle against climate change but also constraints water, raw materials and soil use into account. They analyse, sector per sector, the expected gains of a systematic application of a sobriety and efficiency strategy. It appears that the building is the main energetic stake, that transports have to be considered on a long term, that industry will have to evolve as well as the agriculture sector. The scenario notably comprises an actual lift off for renewable energies, a marginal use of fossil energies, a progressive withdrawal from nuclear, and the development of a complementarity between networks. This could lead to 100 pc sustainable primary energy. The authors show that such a scenario complies with the world energy and climate challenges by 2050. They discuss the cost of such a transition and propose several actions

  7. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  8. Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe B. Wardropper

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios' narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.

  9. Healthy Air Outdoors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... lung.org > Our Initiatives > Healthy Air > Outdoor Healthy Air Outdoors The quality of the air we breathe ... families and can even shorten their lives. Outdoor Air Pollution and Health Outdoor air pollution continues to ...

  10. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO2. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  11. Main Features for the Conceptualization of the Post-Closure Evolution Scenario of the Cigeo LIL-HL Waste Repository - 13105

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landais, Patrick; Giffaut, Eric; Pepin, Guillaume; Plas, Frederic; Schumacher, S. [Andra, 1-7 rue Jean Monnet, 92298 Chatenay Malabry (France)

    2013-07-01

    In France, in order to commission the planned geological repository by 2025, a license application for the industrial project of this geological repository called Cigeo (Centre Industriel de Stockage Geologique) must be submitted and reviewed by the competent authorities by 2015. On the basis of its preliminary design set up in 2009 and on the associated requirements for long-term safety, an overall conceptual model has been developed in order to prepare the performance and safety analysis. The Cigeo repository makes use of the passive safety response characteristics of both the engineered and geological barriers that allow: - resisting water ingress, with repository designs favoring the limitation of the water flows; - limiting the release of radionuclides and chemical toxics; - delaying and mitigating the spread of radionuclides and chemical toxics. In order to evaluate the performance of the various elements, a conceptual model of the thermo-hydro-chemico-mechanical (THMC) evolution of the different components of the repository has been designed. It takes stock of a 20 years research effort which allowed data to be obtained from various surface geological campaigns, in-situ experiments in URLs and wastes characterization, and advances in numerical simulation to be utilised. Based on the best available knowledge to date, this conceptual model constitutes a robust basis for the definition and development of the long-term safety scenarios. It also helps identifying the residual uncertainties, and provides guidelines for additional research and system optimizations. (authors)

  12. Air Traffic Flow Management

    CERN Document Server

    Ganu, Hrishikesh V

    2008-01-01

    Air Traffic Flow Management is the regulation of air traffic in order to avoid exceeding airport or flight sector capacity in handling traffic, and to ensure that available capacity is used efficiently. We have tried to explore the logic behind the claims by Bertsimas et.al about integral solutions to the LP relaxation of the Traffic Flow Management Problem(TFMP). Polyhedral theory only indicates that the stronger TFMP formulation of Bertsimas et.al might lead to integral solutions in some cases. Our computations indicate that the encouraging results reported by Bertsimas et.al are not merely fortuitous or due to their specific data set. Indeed, we found that the TFMP had integral solutions even in case of artificial data sets generated to include severe conflicts in the flight schedules. In our limited tests with 4-5 scenarios, we obtained non-integral solutions only once. This is of significant practical importance because, the LP relaxation can be solved even on small machines with low memory and processor...

  13. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  14. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  15. Global emissions of mercury to the atmosphere in 2005 and their 2020 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Munthe, John; Wilson, Simon; Leaner, Joy

    2010-05-01

    About the three quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of mercury in the year 2005 estimated to be 1930 tonnes comes from sources where mercury is emitted as a by-product, and the rest is emitted during various applications of mercury. The largest emissions of Hg to the global atmosphere occur from combustion of fossil fuels, mainly coal in utility, industrial, and residential boilers (almost 47 %), followed by artisanal mining (almost 17 %), non-ferrous metal production, including gold production (13.5%) and cement production (about 9.5 %). Doing nothing for the improvement of the Hg emission reductions (so-called Status Quo - SQ scenario) will cause an increase of the emissions in 2020 by almost 100 % compared to the 2020 Extended Emission Control (EXEC) emission reduction scenario. Even larger increase is estimated when the 2020 SQ scenario of Hg emissions is compared with the 2020 Maximum Feasible Technical Reduction (MFTR) emission reduction scenario. The EXEC scenario assumes economic progress at a rate dependent on the future development of industrial technologies and emission control technologies, i.e. mercury-reducing technology currently generally employed throughout Europe and North America would be implemented elsewhere. It further assumes that emissions control measures currently implemented or committed to in Europe to reduce mercury emission to air or water would be implemented around the world. The MFTR scenario assumes implementation of all solutions/ measures leading to the maximum degree of reduction of mercury emissions and its loads discharged to any environment; cost is taken into account but only as a secondary consideration. Emissions of Hg in various industrial sectors, such as cement production and metal manufacturing in the year 2020 can be 2 to 3 times larger if nothing will be done to improve emission control in comparison with the EXEC scenario.

  16. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    González Paula LM

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998, trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent

  17. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  18. Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre

  19. Royal Danish Air Force. Air Operations Doctrine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørby, Søren

    This brief examines the development of the first Danish Air Force Air Operations Doctrine, which was officially commissioned in October 1997 and remained in effect until 2010. The development of a Danish air power doctrine was heavily influenced by the work of Colonel John Warden (USAF), both...... through his book ”The Air Campaign” and his subsequent planning of the air campaign against Iraq in 1990-1991. Warden’s ideas came to Denmark and the Danish Air Force by way of Danish Air Force students attending the United States Air Force Air University in Alabama, USA. Back in Denmark, graduates from...... the Air University inspired a small number of passionate airmen, who then wrote the Danish Air Operations Doctrine. The process was supported by the Air Force Tactical Command, which found that the work dovetailed perfectly with the transformation process that the Danish Air Force was in the midst...

  20. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr−1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr−1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  1. Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions

  2. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  3. INFORMATION SCENARIOS OVER THE RISK IN INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica Tirlea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Risks management means identifying them, assessing, quantifying and strategy to counter them, and finding solutions to some levers to diminish or even eliminate the possibility of developing or their consequences. Hung everywhere, risk is associated with uncertain situations and opportunities. The consequences of risk can result in adverse or positive effects related to the activity of the insurance undertaking or of the reinsurance undertaking. The risk has a pronounced randomly character, and its presence in the field of insurance undertakings and reinsurance. This can be explained by the fact that the risks are taken by these companies and have direct effects on their financial results during the period of validity of the contractual relations. The results of risk effects have an impact on the results of activity of insurance companies. The financial impact of a negative event, exceed the sum of the individual loss, leading in some cases to bankruptcy. The financial impact is due to the positive opportunities, which have not made an appearance, and the first event to transform into income. An important role is the responsibility of the information system, providing solutions based on scenarios, by electronic data processing, consider all types of consequences of a hazard and allow insurance companies and reinsurance, on the other hand, to calculate all the possible consequences of a given event and the ultimate financial impact on them, and finally, to make decisions to base decisions for various insurance products and reinsurance. People insurance records for each situation. In practice the scenario method is only used to make specific estimates for different scenarios depending on the circumstances, which has a certain probability of realization, for the favorable; for the neutral and negative and gives solutions for each individual, taking into account certain criteria. For example, we will present a life insurance in several poses.

  4. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

    2005-07-15

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  5. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  6. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  7. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazeia, D; Menezes, R; Olmo, Gonzalo J; Rubiera-Garcia, D

    2015-01-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein's theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  8. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  9. The teaching profession: scenarios, profiles and tendencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Palomero Fernández

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the special issue of the Revista Electrónica Interuniversitaria de Formación del Profesorado, 35, volumen 13 (4 entitled The teaching profession: Scenarios, profiles and tendencies. It contains contributions from authors affiliated to twenty-eight different institutions across five countries: Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Peru. The twenty-eight articles included are followed by a number of PhD thesis summaries and book reviews, whose general framework is that of the teaching profession.

  10. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-02-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  11. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Linde, A; Vikman, A

    2009-01-01

    In a recent paper arXiv:0910.2230, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in arXiv:0910.2230 are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  12. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  13. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, S.S. [Dept. of Energy, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  14. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Politzer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V. V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.; the ITPA Integrated Operation Scenario Topical Group Members; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; EFDA Contributors, JET; the JT-60U Team

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prospects for applications in ITER have been advanced significantly during that time, especially with respect to experimental results. The principal findings of this research activity are as follows. Inductive scenarios capable of higher normalized pressure (βN ⩾ 2.4) than the ITER baseline scenario (βN = 1.8) with normalized confinement at or above the standard H-mode scaling are well established under stationary conditions on the four largest diverted tokamaks (AUG, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U), demonstrated in a database of more than 500 plasmas from these tokamaks analysed here. The parameter range where high performance is achieved is broad in q95 and density normalized to the empirical density limit. MHD modes can play a key role in reaching stationary high performance, but also define the limits to achieved stability and confinement. Projection of performance in ITER from existing experiments uses empirical scalings and theory-based modelling. The status of the experimental validation of both approaches is summarized here. The database shows significant variation in the energy confinement normalized to standard H-mode confinement scalings, indicating the possible influence of additional physics variables absent from the scalings. Tests using the available information on rotation and the ratio of the electron and ion temperatures indicate neither of these variables in isolation can explain the variation in normalized confinement observed. Trends in the normalized confinement with the two dimensionless parameters that vary most from present-day experiments to ITER, gyroradius and collision frequency, are significant. Regression analysis on the multi-tokamak database has been

  15. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  16. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  17. Air filtration and indoor air quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bekö, Gabriel

    2006-01-01

    Demands for better indoor air quality are increasing, since we spend most of our time indoors and we are more and more aware of indoor air pollution. Field studies in different parts of the world have documented that high percentage of occupants in many offices and buildings find the indoor air...... decent ventilation and air cleaning/air filtration, high indoor air quality cannot be accomplished. The need for effective air filtration has increased with increasing evidence on the hazardous effects of fine particles. Moreover, the air contains gaseous pollutants, removal of which requires various air...... cleaning techniques. Supply air filter is one of the key components in the ventilation system. Studies have shown that used ventilation filters themselves can be a significant source of indoor air pollution with consequent impact on perceived air quality, sick building syndrome symptoms and performance...

  18. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  19. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  20. INFORMATION SYSTEMS: NEW ONTOLOGIES-BASED SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana Herrea

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available While ontology is still a fertile area of research in the field of Philosophy, Ontologies currently stands for research, development, and application fields in disciplines related with computing, information and knowledge. Information Systems (IS are essentially knowledge artifacts that capture and represent knowledge in certain domains. Considering that ontologies is generally used to specify and communicate knowledge in a domain, and the growing recognition that ontological principles and concepts can be fruitfully applied to the IS field, one could say that an IS has its own implicit ontology when attributing meaning to the symbols used. Explicitly, however, ontology may play different roles in an IS. The scenarios presented in this article allow visualizing the roles that ontologies are now playing or will play in the near future in IS. There is a wide range of uses for ontologies in the different scenarios - they vary from the conceptual analysis of IS modeling techniques to their use as support for IS design, development and application. Our knowledge on the roles played by ontologies in IS is expected to be expanded.

  1. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  2. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  3. Code strategy for simulating Severe Accident Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe accident scenarios of Sodium-cooled fast reactors involves various phenomena: core degradation, melt progression towards the core catcher, corium behaviour on the core catcher, energetic corium/sodium interactions, structure mechanical behaviour during expansion phase, containment behaviour, and fission production release and transport. In order to simulate the complete accident scenarios, CEA strategy relies on two sets of calculation codes: a reference set of codes and a set of simplified coupled models dedicated to Probabilistic Risk Assessment analyses. Concerning the reference set, that includes SAS-SFR, SIMMER, CONTAIN, EUROPLEXUS, and TOLBIAC, CEA started, with JAEA and KIT, a validation process based on existing experimental results such as CABRI and SCARABEE programs, and recently against the EAGLE1&2 program results, in the frame of a specific contract with JAEA. Furthermore, CEA is preparing additional experimental programs including in-pile experiments in IGR (NNC reactor), and out-of-pile experiments in the future experimental FOURNAISE facility to be built in CEA Cadarache (France). (author)

  4. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  5. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  6. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  7. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, TJBM; Liebl, F

    2005-01-01

    Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodolo

  8. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  9. Formal methods to model adequate task behaviour in complex scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsdingen, A.S.; Krimp, G.W.; Urlings, M.C.M.

    2006-01-01

    Modellering van tactische scenarios met extensieve speltheorie leidt tot identificatie van alle winnende taakstrategieen. maar deze techniek kan slechts beperkte hoeveelheid capaciteit aan. Reinforcment learning technieken leveren niet zulke optimale prestaties, maar kunnen in meer complexe scenario

  10. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  11. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård;

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  12. How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decastro, M.; Sousa, M. C.; Santos, F.; Dias, J. M.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.

    2016-07-01

    Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense.

  13. How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    deCastro, M; Sousa, M C; Santos, F; Dias, J M; Gómez-Gesteira, M

    2016-01-01

    Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense. PMID:27440455

  14. Application of the SAROTA index in real-life scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojatkar, A.; Monebhurrun, V.

    2014-10-01

    A unique parameter referred to as the SAROTA index which accounts for both the specific absorption rate (SAR) and the over-the-air (OTA) performance of a mobile phone was previously proposed to characterize the real-life exposure. The applicability of the SAROTA index was confirmed using SAR and total radiated power (TRP) data obtained under laboratory conditions wherein the power control (PC) enforced on the mobile phone was implemented artificially. Herein the investigation is extended to measurements conducted for the speech mode of operation in real-life scenarios. Based on the actual PC implemented during the communication with the base station, the instantaneous and average real-life exposure experienced by the mobile phone user is analyzed and compared to the predicted SAROTA index. To capture the PC in real-time, a set of hardware modified phones with embedded network monitoring software are used. The instantaneous uplink transmit power level (TX_LEV) along with various downlink parameters such as the receive signal level (RX_LEV) and received signal quality (RX_QUAL) of the communication link are thus available for performing a comprehensive RF exposure analysis.

  15. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  16. Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Yinlong; ZHANG Yong; LIN Erda; LIN Wantao; DONG Wenjie; Richard Jones; David Hassell; Simon Wilson

    2006-01-01

    The PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961-1990) climate for evaluation of model's capacity of simulating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071-2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the comparison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local distribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking, the simulation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer, respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography, and the simulated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to baseline that there would be an obvious surface air temperature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China, and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China, the amplitude of summer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5℃; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China, while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However, it presents an obvious precipitation increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.

  17. EN EL AIRE / In the air

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés López Fernández

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN En el aire es un viaje a la primera mitad del siglo XX que nos tratará de acercar la frescura y oportunidad de las calles corredor y los jardines en la ciudad vertical. Se inicia en 1909 en Nueva York, con la publicación por la revista Life de La Torre del Globo, se acerca al Inmueble-Villas y al Plan Obus para Argel de Le Corbusier, y finaliza en 1952 con el proyecto para el conjunto residencial de Golden Lane en Londres de A. y P. Smithson. Fragmentos para la ciudad vertical que se construía sobre papel, tras el espejo, paralela en el tiempo, pero muy distinta a la ciudad real, con el objetivo entre otros de integrar arquitectura y naturaleza. Esas propuestas siguen teniendo hoy un gran valor, en un panorama en que el espacio público ligado a la vivienda colectiva, prácticamente ha desaparecido, y el esfuerzo que se demanda al arquitecto se centra, en tejer a modo de encaje de bolillos, una fachada que envuelva un programa de vivienda, funcional y espacialmente obsoleto.SUMMARY In the air, is a journey to the first half of the twentieth century that will try to bring us to the freshness and opportunity of the corridor streets and gardens in the vertical city. It begins in 1909 in New York, with the publication in Life magazine of the Globe Tower, it approaches the Immeubles-Villas and Plan Obus for Algiers by Le Corbusier, and ends in 1952 with the project for the Golden Lane Estate residential complex in London, by A. and P. Smithson. Fragments for the vertical city that was constructed on paper, behind the mirror, parallel in time, but was very different from the real city, with the aim, inter alia, of integrating architecture and nature. These proposals continue to have great value today, in a scenario where the public space linked to the collective home has virtually disappeared, and the effort that is demanded of the architect focuses on weaving a facade like bobbin lace around a functionally and spatially obsolete housing

  18. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    J. J. Corbett; D. A. Lack; J. J. Winebrake; Harder, S; J. A. Silberman; Gold, M.

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understa...

  19. The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Roland von Glasow; Jones, Phil D.; Pedro Llanillo

    2010-01-01

    We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM) to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT) anoma...

  20. AirData

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The AirData site provides access to yearly summaries of United States air pollution data, taken from EPA's air pollution databases. AirData has information about...

  1. R9 Air Districts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Region 9 Air Districts layer is a compilation of polygons representing the California Air Pollution Control and Air Quality Management Districts, Arizona Air...

  2. Hazardous Air Pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Facebook Twitter Google+ Pinterest Contact Us Hazardous Air Pollutants Hazardous air pollutants are those known to cause ... protect against adverse environmental effects. About Hazardous Air Pollutants What are hazardous air pollutants? Health and Environmental ...

  3. California Air Basins

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Air ResourcesCalifornia Air Resources BoardThe following datasets are from the California Air Resources Board: * arb_california_airbasins - California Air BasinsThe...

  4. Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byman H. Hamududu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

  5. Response of aerosol composition to different emission scenarios in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yingjie; Sun, Yele; Du, Wei; Wang, Qingqing; Chen, Chen; Han, Tingting; Lin, Jian; Zhao, Jian; Xu, Weiqi; Gao, Jian; Li, Jie; Fu, Pingqing; Wang, Zifa; Han, Yongxiang

    2016-11-15

    Understanding the response of aerosol chemistry to different emission scenarios is of great importance for air pollution mitigating strategies in megacities. Here we investigate the variations in air pollutants under three different emission scenarios, i.e., heating season, spring festival holiday and non-heating season using aerosol composition and gaseous measurements from 2 February to 1 April 2015 along with source apportionment and FLEXPART analysis in Beijing. Our results showed substantially different aerosol composition among three emission scenarios that is primarily caused by different emission sources. All aerosol and gas species showed ubiquitously higher concentrations in heating season than non-heating season with the largest enhancement for fossil OA (FOA) and chloride. On average, the particulate matter (PM) level in winter heating season can be enhanced by 70% due to coal combustion emissions. In contrast, cooking aerosols and traffic related species showed significant reductions as a response of reduced anthropogenic activities during the spring festival holiday, sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) however even increased due to enhanced aqueous-phase production. Such compensating effects resulted in small changes in PM levels for haze episodes during the holiday period despite reduced anthropogenic emissions. Our results have significant implications that local emission controls during winter severe pollution episodes can reduce primary aerosols substantially, but the mitigating effects can be significantly suppressed by enhanced secondary formation under stagnant meteorological conditions. PMID:27425439

  6. Emergence in holographic scenarios for gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieks, Dennis; van Dongen, Jeroen; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-11-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightforwardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  7. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  8. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen and the impact of the current regional planning framework, the “Fingerplan 2007”. This plan is the first binding version of the original “Fingerplan” from 1947. It sets overall guidelines for zoning in the area. For the modelling exercise we apply the Metronamica model from...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...

  9. Emergence in Holographic Scenarios for Gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Dieks, Dennis; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightfowardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and ...

  10. Modelling of the biorefinery scenarios - Bioscen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koukkari, P. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)), e-mail: pertti.koukkari@vtt.fi; Alopaeus, V. (Aalto Univ., Espoo (Finland)), e-mail: ville.alopaeus@tkk.fi; Miettinen, K. (Jyvaeskylae Univ. (Finland)), e-mail: kaisa.miettinen@jyu.fi (and others)

    2011-11-15

    Bioscen project develops methods for modeling of biorefinery concepts. The project covers a range of approaches starting from collecting and predicting minute details of molecular properties of biorefining chemicals to optimizing energy efficiency and estimating the life cycle analysis of a complete production plant. The unit operations that are in the focus of the project are condensation of pyrolysis oil, chemical and enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass and microbial fermentation. The project develops surrogate-model based simulation and optimization of computationally demanding biorefinery scenarios. These metamodels are applied in flowsheet models of production plants in order to enable estimation of optimum for instance in terms of productivity, energy efficiency and running costs. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis for determining the most critical parameters in the process models is developed. As an example case of complete production process the project uses a concept of bark biorefinery to bioethanol and fine chemicals. (orig.)

  11. The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saueressig, Frank [Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, D-55099 Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Asymptotic safety offers the possibility that gravity constitutes a consistent and predictive quantum field theory within Wilsons generalized framework of renormalization. The key ingredient of this scenario is a non-trivial fixed point of the gravitational renormalization group flow which governs the UV behavior of the theory. The fixed point itself thereby guarantees the absence of unphysical UV divergences while its associated finite-dimensional UV-critical surface ensures the predictivity of the resulting quantum theory. This talk summarizes the evidence for the existence of such a fixed point, which emerged from the flow equation for the effective average action, the gravitational beta-functions in 2+{epsilon} dimensions, the 2-Killing vector reduction of the gravitational path-integral and lattice simulations. Possible phenomenological consequences are discussed in detail.

  12. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  13. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niedermaier Max

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  14. Distributed Function Computation in Asymmetric Communication Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Agnihotri, Samar

    2009-01-01

    We consider the distributed function computation problem in asymmetric communication scenarios, where the sink computes some deterministic function of the data split among N correlated informants. The distributed function computation problem is addressed as a generalization of distributed source coding (DSC) problem. We are mainly interested in minimizing the number of informant bits required, in the worst-case, to allow the sink to exactly compute the function. We provide a constructive solution for this in terms of an interactive communication protocol and prove its optimality. The proposed protocol also allows us to compute the worst-case achievable rate-region for the computation of any function. We define two classes of functions: lossy and lossless. We show that, in general, the lossy functions can be computed at the sink with fewer number of informant bits than the DSC problem, while computation of the lossless functions requires as many informant bits as the DSC problem.

  15. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.;

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows....... It jointly performs congestion control and inter-cell interference avoidance by means of a utility describing the cell's channel. Centralized and uncoordinated schemes are studied. The first is defined as an integer linear program, while the second builds on the best channel utility developed for the first...... and combines it with a stochastic admission process. Based on simulation evaluation, it is shown that uncoordinated is near-optimal, while providing a viable solution for uncoordinated small cell deployments. Finally, the best utility developed proved better than the traditional power allocation....

  16. Inflationary dynamics in the braneworld scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Kai-Yuan; Wu Pu-Xun; Yu Hong-Wei

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the attractor behaviour of the inflation field in braneworld scenarios using the Hamilton-Jacobi formalism,where the Friedmann equation has the form of H2 =ρ + ε√2ρ0ρ or H2 =ρ + ερ2/2σ,with ε =+ 1.We find that in all models the linear homogeneous perturbation can decay exponentially as the scalar field rolls down its potential.However,in the case of a-ρ2 correction to the standard cosmology with ρ < σ,the existence of an attractor solution requires (σ-ρ)/φ2 > 1.Our results show that the perturbation decays more quickly in models with positive-energy correction than in the standard cosmology,which is opposite to the case of negative-energy correction.Thus,the positive-energy modification rather than the negative one can assist the inflation and widen the range of initial conditions.

  17. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network"

    CERN Document Server

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M

    2012-01-01

    The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few exceptions is the "Romantic network" which is a complete structure of a real sexual network of a high school. In terms of topology, unlike other sexual networks classified as scale-free network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have effects on diffusion through networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes.With the aim to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI in it, we perform simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve in time. In the static case, we compare the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. We further...

  18. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...

  19. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  20. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  1. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  2. Inhomogeneous Reheating Scenario with DBI fields

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Sheng

    2010-01-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed $c_s$ from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{NL}$ is independent of $c_s$. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  3. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  4. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  5. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  6. MHD stability of advanced tokamak scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokamak plasmas with a non-monotonic q-profile (current profile) and negative shear in the plasma centre have been associated with improved confinement and large pressure gradients in the region of negative shear. In JET, this regime, has been obtained with pellet injection (the PEP mode) and in DIII-D by ramping the plasma elongation. In JET, the phase of improved confinement is transient and usually ends in a collapse due to an MHD instability which leads to a redistribution of the current and a monotonic q-profile. The infernal mode, which is driven by a large pressure gradient in the region of low shear near the minimum in the q-profile, is the most likely candidate for the observed instability. To extend the transient phase to steady state, control of the shape of the current density profile is essential. The modelling of these advanced tokamak scenarios with a non-monotonic q-profile using non-inductive current drive of lower hybrid waves, fast waves, and neutral beams is discussed elsewhere. The aim is to find suitable initial states and to maintain MHD stability when the plasma β is built up. For this purpose, the robustness of the MHD stability of these configurations is studied with respect to changes in the position and in the depth of the minimum in q, and in the shape of the q and pressure profile. The classes of equilibria chosen for the analysis are based on the modelling of the current-drive schemes for advanced tokamak scenarios in JET. The toroidal ideal and resistive MHD stability code CASTOR is used for the stability calculations. (author) 7 refs., 4 figs

  7. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Darabi, F. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Research Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics of Maragha (RIAAM), Maragha (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheykhi, A. [College of Sciences, Shiraz University, Physics Department and Biruni Observatory, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} where N{sub bulk} and N{sub sur} are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper,we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} - N{sub extr} where N{sub extr} is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N{sub sur} and N{sub bulk} are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields. (orig.)

  8. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  9. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  10. Políticas nacionales y escenarios locales. Reflexiones sobre la implementación del Programa Federal de Construcción de Viviendas en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires National Policies and Local Scenarios. Reflections on the implementation of the Federal Housing Program in the City of Buenos Aires As políticas nacionais e os cenários locais. Reflexões sobre a implementação do Programa Federal de Habitação na cidade de Buenos Aires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ostuni

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available ResumenEste trabajo propone indagar acerca de la cuestión de la vivienda construida por el sector público en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, utilizando como eje el actual Programa Federal de Construcción de Viviendas, lanzado en el año 2004. Se trata de una política de alcance nacional llevada a cabo por la Subsecretaría de Desarrollo Urbano y Vivienda de la Nación, dependiente del Ministerio de Infraestructura y Planificación Federal. El interés en atender al programa aludido se explica por tratarse de la política habitacional de mayor magnitud en décadas. A priori, podría implicar un cambio en el rol del Estado en relación con los problemas habitacionales, traducido en una importante asignación de recursos económicos y técnicos para afrontar la cuestión. El artículo expresa el proceso de investigación concretado en una tesis de maestría, y en su actual continuación — y ampliación — en una tesis doctoral.AbstractThis work proposes an inquiry on housing built by the public sector in the city of Buenos Aires, using the current Federal Program for Housing Development launched in 2004, as its core. This program is a nation-wide policy carried out by the Urban Development and Housing Undersecretary’s Office, which depends on the Ministry of Infrastructure and Federal Planning. The author’s interest on this subject comes from the idea of it being the housing policy with the highest impact of the last decades. A priori, it could entail a change of the State’s role in relation with housing problems, transformed in an important assignment of economic and technical resources in order to face the situation. This speech exposes the investigation process that was concreted in a Masters thesis and that still continues as a Doctoral Thesis.ResumoEste artigo pretende indagar sobre a questão da habitação construída pelo estado na Cidade de Buenos Aires, fazendo um análise do Programa Federal de Habitação, lançado no ano de

  11. Transitional dispersive scenarios driven by mesoscale flows on complex terrain under strong dry convective conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain under strong convective conditions, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain. The results and discussions presented arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under strong dry convective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. This paper analyses the importance of the identification and physical implications of transitional periods for air quality applications. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during these transitional periods implies a small (or null physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution.

  12. Climate change scenarios over the Mediterranean Basin; Scenari di cambiamento climatico sul bacino del Mediterraneo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casaioli, Marco; Sciortino, Maurizio [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente

    1997-11-01

    The results of climatic simulation over the Mediterranean Basin made available by major climate research centres, have been analyzed with the purposes of defining possible future climate scenarios. The validation of modelling results of present climate with observed climatology makes possible to assess capabilities and limitations of the General Circulation Models over the area under consideration. The evaluation of climate change scenarios in conditions of doubling atmospheric concentration of CO 2 gives indications on the expected magnitude of variation of temperature and precipitation. The results available agree to indicate a possible warming of air temperature but as far as concerned precipitation there is still no consensus between the climate projections produced by the different models considered in this study.

  13. UE Autonomous Cell Management in a High-Speed Scenario with Dual Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Michaelsen, Per-Henrik; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    2016-01-01

    This study compares the amount of control signaling required by traditional network-controlled mobility management with the one required by user equipment autonomous cell management operations in a real-life highway scenario. The scenario is covered by macros and densely-deployed small cells....... Different strategies for preparing the small cells for autonomous operations are studied. Our results show that traditional dual connectivity requires an average of 4.9 messages, per user per second, to be exchanged between the user equipment and the network, and 11.6 messages between e-NodeBs. On the other...... hand, autonomous cell management operations considerably decrease the amount of signaling. The highest reductions can be achieved by preparing all cells in the highway, cutting the signaling overhead by 92% over the air, and 39% between e-NodeBs. Furthermore, the approach of applying a newly developed...

  14. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  15. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  16. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  17. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  18. Impact of Ambient Air Pollution on Public Health under Various Traffic Policies in Shanghai,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHAN-GHONG CHEN; HAI-DONG KAN; CHENG HUANG; LI LI; YUN-HUI ZHANG; REN-JIE CHEN; BING-HENG CHEN

    2009-01-01

    Objective To investigate the potential impact of ambient air pollution on public health under various traffic policies in Shanghai. Methods The exposure level of Shanghai residents to air pollution under various planned traffic scenarios was estimated,and the public health impact was assessed using concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiological studies. Results Our results showed that ambient air pollution in relation to traffic scenarios had a significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents.Compared with the base case scenario,implementation of various traffic scenarios could prevent 759-1574,1885-2420,and 2277-2650 PM10-related avoidable deaths (mean-value) in 2010,2015,and 2020,respectively.It could also decrease the incidence of several relevant diseases. Conclusion Our findings emphasize the need to consider air pollution-related health effects as an important impact of traffic policy in Shanghai.

  19. Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

    2016-02-01

    Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

  20. Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution in São Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Karina Camasmie; Miraglia, Simone Georges El Khouri

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological research suggests that air pollution may cause chronic diseases, as well as exacerbation of related pathologies such as cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality. This study evaluates air pollution scenarios considering a Health Impact Assessment approach in São Paulo, Brazil. We have analyzed abatement scenarios of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter air pollution would also lower the demand for hospital care, since hospitalizations would diminish. In this sense, Brazil should urgently adopt WHO air pollution standards in order to improve the quality of life of its population. PMID:27409629

  1. Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Karina Camasmie; Miraglia, Simone Georges El Khouri

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological research suggests that air pollution may cause chronic diseases, as well as exacerbation of related pathologies such as cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality. This study evaluates air pollution scenarios considering a Health Impact Assessment approach in São Paulo, Brazil. We have analyzed abatement scenarios of Particulate Matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter resources are scarce. Moreover, the reduced levels of air pollution would also lower the demand for hospital care, since hospitalizations would diminish. In this sense, Brazil should urgently adopt WHO air pollution standards in order to improve the quality of life of its population. PMID:27409629

  2. Can air pollution negate the health benefits of cycling and walking?

    OpenAIRE

    Tainio, Marko; de Nazelle, Audrey; Götschi, Thomas; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Rojas-Rueda, David; Nieuwenhuijse, Mark J; Sa, Thiago H; Kelly, Paul; Woodcock, James

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Active travel (cycling, walking) is beneficial for health due to increased physical activity (PA). However, active travel may increase the intake of air pollution, leading to negative health consequences. We examined the risk-benefit balance between active travel related PA and exposure to air pollution across a range of air pollution and PA scenarios. Methods: The health effects of active travel and air pollution were estimated through changes in all-cause mortality for different...

  3. Can air pollution negate the health benefits of cycling and walking?

    OpenAIRE

    Tainio, Marko; De Nazelle, Audrey; Götschi, Thomas; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Rojas-Rueda, David; Nieuwenhuijse, Mark J; Sa, Thiago H; Kelly, Paul; Woodcock, James

    2016-01-01

    Active travel (cycling, walking) is beneficial for the health due to increased physical activity (PA). However, active travel may increase the intake of air pollution, leading to negative health consequences. We examined the risk–benefit balance between active travel related PA and exposure to air pollution across a range of air pollution and PA scenarios. The health effects of active travel and air pollution were estimated through changes in all-cause mortality for different levels of active...

  4. Adobe AIR 15 Cookbook Solutions and Examples for Rich Internet Application Developers

    CERN Document Server

    Tucker, David; DeWeggheleire, Koen

    2008-01-01

    The hands-on recipes in this cookbook help you solve a variety of tasks and scenarios often encountered when using Adobe AIR to build Rich Internet Applications for the desktop. Thoroughly vetted by Adobe's AIR development team, Adobe AIR 1.5 Cookbook addresses fundamentals, best practices, and more. If you want to learn the nuances of Adobe AIR to build innovative applications, this is the book you've been waiting for.

  5. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  6. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  7. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the future. The report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during future glaciations, and which are likely to be of importance for a repository. The report presents a synthesis of the results in a form of a scenario from two state-of-the-art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on the present status of knowledge the climate at Scandinavia will gradually become colder permitting the growth of an ice sheet at 5000 years in the mountainous area of Sweden. After a minor warmer period fully stadial conditions will occur around 20 000 years from now, and after interstadial with dry and cold climate again after 60000 years from now. During the latter glaciation ice thickness at Stockholm-Helsinki region is 2500 m. Interstadial conditions similar to the climate of northern Sweden/Finland will prevail after 75000 years from now. The main changes caused by ice sheet are the downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in the sea level. In addition, changes in groundwater head and flux are foreseen. As a response from climatic changes tundra and permafrost will appear

  8. Radiological accidents, scenarios, planning and answers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radiological accidents, scenarios and the importance of a good planning to prevent and control these types of accidents are presented. The radiation can be only one of the risks in an accident, most of dominant radiological risks are not radiological (fire, toxic gases, etc.). The common causes of radiological accidents, potential risks such as external irradiation, internal contamination and the environment pollution are highlighted. In addition, why accidents happen and how they evolve is explained. It describes some incidents with the radiation occurred in Costa Rica from 1993 to 2007. The coordination of emergency management in Costa Rica in relation to a radiological accident, and some mechanisms of action that have practiced in other places are focuses. Among the final considerations are the need to finalize the national plan for radiological emergencies as a tool of empowerment for the teams of emergency care and the availability of information. Likewise the processes of communication, coordination and cooperation to avoid chaos, confusion and crisis are also highlighted

  9. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  10. General Relativistic Simulations of the Collapsar Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    DeBrye, N; Aloy, M A; Font, J A

    2013-01-01

    We are exploring the viability of the collapsar model for long-soft gamma-ray bursts. For this we perform state-of-the-art general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in a dynamically evolving space-time with the CoCoNuT code. We start from massive low metallicity stellar models evolved up to core gravitational instability, and then follow the subsequent evolution until the system collapses forming a compact remnant. A preliminary study of the collapse outcome is performed by varying the typical parameters of the scenario, such as the initial stellar mass, metallicity, and rotational profile of the stellar progenitor. 1D models (without rotation) have been used to test our newly developed neutrino leakage scheme. This is a fundamental piece of our approach as it allows the central remnant (in all cases considered, a metastable high-mass neutron star) to cool down, eventually collapsing to a black hole. In two dimensions, we show that sufficiently fast rotating cores lead to the formation of Kerr black holes...

  11. Scenarios for a deregulated, restructured electric industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deregulation is moving rapidly on some fronts, while opposition by some affected parties is growing. The restructured industry is emerging, in the growth of new businesses such as power marketing and energy services, and also in reorganization by utilities to prepare for the future under deregulation. The market levels and opportunities will depend not only on the decisions of individual state and Federal regulators, but also on those of utilities, power marketers, developers and others who can drive the direction and the outcome of the changes. Scenarios for deregulation and restructuring are examined, from a rapid pace toward full competition, to a process slowed or blocked by conflicting interests and opposition from parties bent on preserving existing positions. A key development already underway with expected major impact on the future of the industry will be major consolidations, including convergence of electric and gas supply, and emergence of very large and powerful players. The generation business and energy supply to customers, based on aggressive marketing will lead the way

  12. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Liew, Seng Pei; Mawatari, Kentarou; Sakurai, Kazuki; Vereecken, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 $\\sigma$ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain $\\tilde g\\to g\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}\\to gZ\\tilde G'$ becomes dominant, where $\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}$ and $\\tilde G'$ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as $m_{\\tilde g}\\sim 900$ GeV, $m_{\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}}\\sim 700$ GeV and $m_{\\tilde G'}\\sim 600$ GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  13. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    Geographical locations of the farms are the core in these models. We used geographical data, number of animals and specification of herd types for the 50,853 herds in the Danish Husbandry Register (CHR) in 2007. For each herd, the daily probability of moving animals, to another herd or to the aba......Geographical locations of the farms are the core in these models. We used geographical data, number of animals and specification of herd types for the 50,853 herds in the Danish Husbandry Register (CHR) in 2007. For each herd, the daily probability of moving animals, to another herd......, disease was simulated to spread via direct contacts (movements of animals), indirect contacts (trucks and persons) and local spread (mice, birds, airborne spread in limited distances). Furthermore, in some scenarios airborne spread was included. For all contact types, when a contact was simulated to take...... place, a receiving herd needed to be found. The distance, in which the receiving herd should be found, was calculated from movement data for animals and from data from trucks and abattoirs for movements to slaughter and milk tankers. For persons visiting herds, we used a combination of expert opinions...

  14. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  15. Hepatotoxicity and the present herbal hepatoprotective scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyankar Dey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the metabolic and physiological processes of our body as well as the detoxification of various drugs and xenobiotic chemicals occur in the liver. During this detoxification process, the reactive chemical intermediates damage the liver severely. There are several commercially available drugs, consumption of which results in idiosyncratic drug reaction mediated hepatotoxicity. Drug induced hepatotoxicity is a burning problem in this regard and several drugs are withdrawn from the market due to their hepatotoxic nature. Today, worldwide search of non-hepatotoxic drugs, especially potent hepatoprotective drugs have led towards the screening of numerous herbal products. Pharmaceutical companies and scientific communities have started to consider the therapeutic efficiency of the plant-based hepatoprotective remedies. Different herbs are mentioned in various ethnopharmacological practices possessing hepatoprotective capacities and around the globe, such herbs are still used by people to cure certain liver diseases. Therefore, we have documented the various aspects of hepatotoxicity and an overview on the current scenario of the hepatoprotective herbal remedies.

  16. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  17. What is a Natural SUSY scenario?

    CERN Document Server

    Casas, J Alberto; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof; Zaldivar, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    The idea of "Natural SUSY", understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does {\\em not} demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800~GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-t...

  18. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  19. Quest for potentials in the quintessence scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Hara, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    The time variation of the equation of state $w$ for quintessence scenario with a scalar field as dark energy is studied up to the third derivative ($d^3w/da^3$) with respect to the scale factor $a$, in order to predict the future observations and specify the scalar potential parameters with the observables. The third derivative of $w$ for general potential $V$ is derived and applied to several types of potentials. They are the inverse power-law ($V=M^{4+\\alpha}/Q^{\\alpha}$), the exponential ($V=M^4\\exp{(\\beta M/Q)}$), the cosine ($V=M^4(\\cos (Q/f)+1)$) and the Gaussian types ($V=M^4\\exp(-Q^2/\\sigma^2)$), which are prototypical potentials for the freezing and thawing models. If the parameter number for a potential form is $ n$, it is necessary to find at least for $n+2$ independent observations to identify the potential form and the evolution of the scalar field ($Q$ and $ \\dot{Q} $). Such observations would be the values of $ \\Omega_Q, w, dw/da. \\cdots $, and $ dw^n/da^n$. Since four of the above mentioned po...

  20. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.