WorldWideScience

Sample records for air ingress scenarios

  1. Oxidation rate of nuclear-grade graphite IG-110 in the kinetic regime for VHTR air ingress accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jo Jo; Ghosh, Tushar K.; Loyalka, Sudarshan K.

    2014-03-01

    The oxidation rates of nuclear-grade graphite IG-110 in the kinetically-controlled temperature regime of graphite oxidation were predicted and compared in Very High Temperature Reactor air ingress accident scenarios. The oxidative mass loss of graphite was measured thermogravimetrically from 873 to 1873 K in 100% air (21 mol%). The activation energy was found to be 222.07 kJ/mol, and the order of reaction with respect to oxygen concentration is 0.76. The surfaces of the samples were characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy before and after oxidation. These results are compared with those available in the literature, and our recently reported results for NBG-18 nuclear-grade graphite using the same technique.

  2. Small Break Air Ingress Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Oh; Eung Soo Kim

    2011-09-01

    The small break air-ingress experiment, described in this report, is designed to investigate air-ingress phenomena postulated to occur in pipes in a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTRs). During this experiment, air-ingress rates were measured for various flow and break conditions through small holes drilled into a pipe of the experimental apparatus. The holes were drilled at right angles to the pipe wall such that a direction vector drawn from the pipe centerline to the center of each hole was at right angles with respect to the pipe centerline. Thus the orientation of each hole was obtained by measuring the included angle between the direction vector of each hole with respect to a reference line anchored on the pipe centerline and pointing in the direction of the gravitational force. Using this reference system, the influence of several important parameters on the air ingress flow rate were measured including break orientation, break size, and flow velocity . The approach used to study the influence of these parameters on air ingress is based on measuring the changes in oxygen concentrations at various locations in the helium flow circulation system as a function of time using oxygen sensors (or detectors) to estimate the air-ingress rates through the holes. The test-section is constructed of a stainless steel pipe which had small holes drilled at the desired locations.

  3. CFD Analyses of Air-Ingress Accident for VHTRs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Tae Kyu

    The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is one of six proposed Generation-IV concepts for the next generation of nuclear powered plants. The VHTR is advantageous because it is able to operate at very high temperatures, thus producing highly efficient electrical generation and hydrogen production. A critical safety event of the VHTR is a loss-of-coolant accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. Following the depressurization process, the air (i.e., the air and helium mixture) in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core causing an air-ingress event. In the event of air-ingress into the reactor core, the high-temperature in-core graphite structures will chemically react with the air and could lose their structural integrity. We designed a 1/8th scaled-down test facility to develop an experimental database for studying the mechanisms involved in the air-ingress phenomenon. The current research focuses on the analysis of the air-ingress phenomenon using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool ANSYS FLUENT for better understanding of the air-ingress phenomenon. The anticipated key steps in the air-ingress scenario for guillotine break of VHTR cross vessel are: 1) depressurization; 2) density-driven stratified flow; 3) local hot plenum natural circulation; 4) diffusion into the reactor core; and 5) global natural circulation. However, the OSU air-ingress test facility covers the time from depressurization to local hot plenum natural circulation. Prior to beginning the CFD simulations for the OSU air-ingress test facility, benchmark studies for the mechanisms which are related to the air-ingress accident, were performed to decide the appropriate physical models for the accident analysis. In addition, preliminary experiments were performed with a simplified 1/30th scaled down acrylic set-up to understand the air-ingress

  4. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, Yassin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-06

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  5. Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockers, Roland; Bouffard, Patrick; Ma, Jeremy; Matthies, Larry; Tomlin, Claire

    2011-01-01

    Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

  6. Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Ho Oh; Eung Soo Kim; Hee Cheon No; Nam Zin Cho

    2008-12-01

    The US Department of Energy is performing research and development (R&D) that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Program / GEN-IV Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). Phenomena identification and ranking studies (PIRT) to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important (Schultz et al., 2006). Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation (V&V) are very high priority for the NGNP program. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization, air will enter the core through the break. Air ingress leads to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. The oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will cause the release of fission products eventually. The potential collapse of the bottom reflector because of burn-off and the release of CO lead to serious safety problems. For estimation of the proper safety margin we need experimental data and tools, including accurate multi-dimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. We also need to develop effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods R&D project. This project is focused on (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the bottom reflector, (d) structural tests of the burnt-off bottom reflector, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i

  7. CFD analyses of flow structures in air-ingress and rod bundle problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hong-Chan

    Two topics from nuclear engineering field are included in this dissertation. One study is the air-ingress phenomenon during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, and the other is a 5-by-5 bundle assembly with a PWR design. The objectives were to investigate the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of the gravity-driven stratified flows inside a coaxial pipe and the effects caused by two types of spacers at the downstream of the rod bundle. Richardson extrapolation was used for the grid independent study. The simulation results show good agreements with the experiments. Wavelet analysis and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) were used to study the flow behaviors and flow patterns. For the air-ingress phenomenon, Brunt-Vaisala frequency, or buoyancy frequency, predicts a frequency of 2.34 Hz; this is confirmed by the dominant frequency of 2.4 Hz obtained from the wavelet analysis between times 1.2 s and 1.85 s. For the rod bundle study, the dominant frequency at the center of the subchannel was determined to be 2.4 Hz with a secondary dominant frequency of 4 Hz and a much minor frequency of 6 Hz. Generally, wavelet analysis has much better performance than POD, in the air-ingress phenomenon, for a strongly transient scenario; they are both appropriate for the rod bundle study. Based on this study, when the fluid pair in a real condition is used, the time which air intrudes into the reactor is predictable.

  8. FINAL REPORT on Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Hee C. NO; Nam Z. Cho

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Generation IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking studies to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification & validation are of very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air ingress will occur through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. This study indicates that depending on the location and the size of the pipe break, the air ingress phenomena are different. In an effort to estimate the proper safety margin, experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model are required. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation, eventually. This 3-year project (FY 2008–FY 2010) is focused on various issues related to the VHTR air-ingress accident, including (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) structural tests of the oxidized core bottom structures, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i) verification and validation of the coupled models.

  9. Implications of Air Ingress Induced by Density-Difference Driven Stratified Flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Oh; Eung Soo Kim; Richard Schultz; David Petti; C. P. Liou

    2008-06-01

    One of the design basis accidents for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), a high temperature gas-cooled reactor, is air ingress subsequent to a pipe break. Following a postulated double-ended guillotine break in the hot duct, and the subsequent depressurization to nearly reactor cavity pressure levels, air present in the reactor cavity will enter the reactor vessel via density-gradient-driven-stratified flow. Because of the significantly higher molecular weight and lower initial temperature of the reactor cavity air-helium mixture, in contrast to the helium in the reactor vessel, the air-helium mixture in the cavity always has a larger density than the helium discharging from the reactor vessel through the break into the reactor cavity. In the later stages of the helium blowdown, the momentum of the helium flow decreases sufficiently for the heavier cavity air-helium mixture to intrude into the reactor vessel lower plenum through the lower portion of the break. Once it has entered, the heavier gas will pool at the bottom of the lower plenum. From there it will move upwards into the core via diffusion and density-gradient effects that stem from heating the air-helium mixture and from the pressure differences between the reactor cavity and the reactor vessel. This scenario (considering density-gradient-driven stratified flow) is considerably different from the heretofore commonly used scenario that attributes movement of air into the reactor vessel and from thence to the core region via diffusion. When density-gradient-driven stratified flow is considered as a contributing phenomena for air ingress into the reactor vessel, the following factors contribute to a much earlier natural circulation-phase in the reactor vessel: (a) density-gradient-driven stratified flow is a much more rapid mechanism (at least one order of magnitude) for moving air into the reactor vessel lower plenum than diffusion, and consequently, (b) the diffusion dominated phase begins with a

  10. Investigation of Countercurrent Helium-Air Flows in Air-ingress Accidents for VHTRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard; Oh, Chang

    2013-10-03

    The primary objective of this research is to develop an extensive experimental database for the air- ingress phenomenon for the validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. This research is intended to be a separate-effects experimental study. However, the project team will perform a careful scaling analysis prior to designing a scaled-down test facility in order to closely tie this research with the real application. As a reference design in this study, the team will use the 600 MWth gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) developed by General Atomic. In the test matrix of the experiments, researchers will vary the temperature and pressure of the helium— along with break size, location, shape, and orientation—to simulate deferent scenarios and to identify potential mitigation strategies. Under support of the Department of Energy, a high-temperature helium test facility has been designed and is currently being constructed at Ohio State University, primarily for high- temperature compact heat exchanger testing for the VHTR program. Once the facility is in operation (expected April 2009), this study will utilize high-temperature helium up to 900°C and 3 MPa for loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) depressurization and air-ingress experiments. The project team will first conduct a scaling study and then design an air-ingress test facility. The major parameter to be measured in the experiments is oxygen (or nitrogen) concentration history at various locations following a LOCA scenario. The team will use two measurement techniques: 1) oxygen (or similar type) sensors employed in the flow field, which will introduce some undesirable intrusiveness, disturbing the flow, and 2) a planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) imaging technique, which has no physical intrusiveness to the flow but requires a transparent window or test section that the laser beam can penetrate. The team will construct two test facilities, one for high-temperature helium tests with

  11. FY-09 Report: Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2009-12-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Gen-IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have identified that an air ingress event following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization is a very important incident. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. If this accident occurs, the oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will eventually cause the release of fission products. The potential collapse of the core bottom structures causing the release of CO and fission products is one of the concerns. Therefore, experimental validation with the analytical model and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model developed in this study is very important. Estimating the proper safety margin will require experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods Research and Development project. The second year of this three-year project (FY-08 to FY-10) was focused on (a) the analytical, CFD, and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow; (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments and modeling; (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) implementation of advanced

  12. Toxicological Assessment of ISS Air Quality: SpaceX-2 First Ingress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Valerie

    2013-01-01

    One mini-grab sample container (M-GSC) was collected by crew members onboard ISS during first ingress into SpaceX-2 on March 3, 2013, three days after late cargo loading and a pre-launch clean air purge. Recoveries of the three surrogate standards from the m-GSC were: 13C-acetone, 97%; fluorobenzene, 95%; and chlorobenzene, 68%.

  13. Computational Fluid Dynamics Analyses on Very High Temperature Reactor Air Ingress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H Oh; Eung S. Kim; Richard Schultz; David Petti; Hyung S. Kang

    2009-07-01

    A preliminary computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed to understand density-gradient-induced stratified flow in a Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) air-ingress accident. Various parameters were taken into consideration, including turbulence model, core temperature, initial air mole-fraction, and flow resistance in the core. The gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) 600 MWt was selected as the reference reactor and it was simplified to be 2-D geometry in modeling. The core and the lower plenum were assumed to be porous bodies. Following the preliminary CFD results, the analysis of the air-ingress accident has been performed by two different codes: GAMMA code (system analysis code, Oh et al. 2006) and FLUENT CFD code (Fluent 2007). Eventually, the analysis results showed that the actual onset time of natural convection (~160 sec) would be significantly earlier than the previous predictions (~150 hours) calculated based on the molecular diffusion air-ingress mechanism. This leads to the conclusion that the consequences of this accident will be much more serious than previously expected.

  14. Oxidation Analyses of Massive Air Ingress Accident of HTR-PM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The double-ended guillotine break (DEGB of the horizontal coaxial gas duct accident is a serious air ingress accident of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor pebble-bed module (HTR-PM. Because the graphite is widely used as the structure material and the fuel element matrix of HTR-PM, the oxidation analyses of this severe air ingress accident have got enough attention in the safety analyses of the HTR-PM. The DEGB of the horizontal coaxial gas duct accident is calculated by using the TINTE code in this paper. The results show that the maximum local oxidation of the matrix graphite of spherical fuel elements in the core will firstly reach 3.75⁎104 mol/m3 at about 120 h, which means that only the outer 5 mm fuel-free zone of matrix graphite will be oxidized out. Even at 150 h, the maximum local weight loss ratio of the nuclear grade graphite in the bottom reflectors is only 0.26. Besides, there is enough time to carry out some countermeasures to stop the air ingress during several days. Therefore, the nuclear grade graphite of the bottom reflectors will not be fractured in the DEGB of the horizontal coaxial gas duct accident and the integrity of the HTR-PM can be guaranteed.

  15. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY: DESCRIPTION AND SUMMARY OF DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2010-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory performed air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics code (CFD). An isothermal stratified flow experiment was designed and set to understand stratified flow phenomena in the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) and to provide experimental data for validating computer codes. The isothermal experiment focused on three flow characteristics unique in the VHTR air-ingress accident: stratified flow in the horizontal pipe, stratified flow expansion at the pipe and vessel junction, and stratified flow around supporting structures. Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids and water was used as light fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between heavy and light fluids is generated even for very small density differences. The code was validated by conducting blind CFD simulations and comparing the results to the experimental data. A grid sensitivity study was also performed based on the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for modeling confidence. As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  16. Computational fluid dynamics analysis of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident using a scaled-down model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Tae K., E-mail: taekyu8@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arcilesi, David J., E-mail: arcilesi.1@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kim, In H., E-mail: ihkim0730@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Sun, Xiaodong, E-mail: sun.200@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Christensen, Richard N., E-mail: rchristensen@uidaho.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Oh, Chang H. [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Kim, Eung S., E-mail: kes7741@snu.ac.kr [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • Uncertainty quantification and benchmark study are performed to validate an ANSYS FLUENT computer model for a depressurization process in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. • An ANSYS FLUENT computer model of a 1/8th scaled-down geometry of a VHTR hot exit plenum is presented, which is similar to the experimental test facility that has been constructed at The Ohio State University. • Using the computer model of the scaled-down geometry, the effects of the depressurization process and flow oscillations on the subsequent density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are examined computationally. • The effects of the scaled-down hot exit plenum internal structure temperature on the density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are investigated numerically. - Abstract: An air-ingress accident is considered to be one of the design basis accidents of a very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR). The air-ingress accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a complete break of the hot duct in what is referred to as a double-ended guillotine break. This leads to an initial loss of the primary helium coolant via depressurization. Following the depressurization process, the air–helium mixture in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core via the hot duct and hot exit plenum. In the event that air ingresses into the reactor vessel, the high-temperature graphite structures in the reactor core and hot plenum will chemically react with the air, which could lead to damage of in-core graphite structures and fuel, release of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, core heat up, failure of the structural integrity of the system, and eventually the release of radionuclides to the environment. Studies in the available literature focus on the phenomena of the air ingress accident that occur after the termination of the depressurization, such as density-driven stratified flow, molecular diffusion, and natural circulation. However, a recent study

  17. Numerical Analysis on Air Ingress Behavior in GTHTR300-Cogeneration System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Tetsuaki; Yan, Xing; Kunitomi, Kazuhiko

    The objective of this study is to clarify safety characteristics of a High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) for the pipe rupture accident. Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has been developing the analytical code for the safety characteristics of the HTGR and carrying out design study of the gas turbine high temperature reactor of 300MWe nominal-capacity for hydrogen production, the GTHTR300C (Gas Turbine High Temperature Reactor 300 for Cogeneration). A numerical analysis of heat and mass transfer fluid flow with multi-component gas mixture has been performed to obtain the variation of the density of the gas mixture, and the onset time of natural circulation of air. From the results obtained in this analysis, it was found that the duration time of the air ingress by molecular diffusion would increase due to the existence of the recuperator in the GTHTR300C system.

  18. Separate-effect tests on zirconium cladding degradation in air ingress situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duriez, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, IRSN, Direction de Prevention des Accidents Majeurs, Centre de Cadarache, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France)], E-mail: christian.duriez@irsn.fr; Steinbrueck, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, FZK, Institut fuer Materialforschung, Postfach 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Ohai, D.; Meleg, T. [Institute for Nuclear Research, INR, Nuclear Material and Corrosion Department, Pitesti, 115400 Mioveni Arges (Romania); Birchley, J.; Haste, T. [Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    In the event of air ingress during a reactor or spent fuel pond low probability accident, the fuel rods will be exposed to air-containing atmospheres at high temperatures. In comparison with steam, the presence of air is expected to result in a more rapid escalation of the accident. A state-of-the-art review performed before SARNET started showed that the existing data on zirconium alloy oxidation in air were scarce. Moreover, the exact role of zirconium nitride on the cladding degradation process was poorly understood. Regarding the cladding behaviour in air + steam or nitrogen-enriched atmospheres (encountered in oxygen-starved conditions), almost no data were available. New experimental programmes comprising small-scale tests have therefore been launched at FZK, IRSN (MOZART programme in the frame of the International Source Term Program-ISTP) and INR. Zircaloy-4 cladding in PWR (FZK, IRSN) and in CANDU (INR) geometry are investigated. On-line kinetic data are obtained on centimetre size tube segments, by thermogravimetry (FZK, IRSN and INR) or by mass spectrometry (FZK). Plugged tubes 15 cm long (FZK) are also investigated. The samples are air-oxidised either in the 'as-received' state, or after pre-oxidation in steam. 'Analytical' tests at constant temperature and gas composition provide basic kinetic data, while more prototypical temperature transients and sequential gas compositions are also investigated. The temperature domains extend from 600 deg. C up to 1500 deg. C. Systematic post-test metallographic inspections are performed. The paper gives a synthesis of the results obtained, comparing them in terms of kinetics and oxide scale structure and composition. A comparative analysis is performed with results of the QUENCH-10 (Q-10) bundle test, which included an air ingress phase. It is shown how the data contribute to a better understanding of the cladding degradation process, especially regarding the role of nitrogen. For modelling of

  19. CDF modeling of flow and transport processes in the reactor core of a modular high temperature reactor during an air ingress accident; CFD-Modellierung der Stroemungs- und Transportprozesse im Reaktorkern eines modularen Hochtemperaturreaktors waehrend eines Lufteinbruchstoerfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baggemann, Johannes

    2015-05-22

    Generation IV of reactor design is supposed to include inherent safety systems that allow accident management using passive processes (without external energy). The VTR (very high temperature reactor) is graphite moderated with helium cooling. The design concept assumes that in any operational situation the after heat is removed by thermal conduction and radiation. Air ingress is beyond-design accident assuming a leak in the primary circuit triggering oxygen reaction with the hot graphite that could damage the barriers for fission product release. Using 3D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) codes the air ingress scenario is simulated, the flow and transport processes in the reactor core are analyzed. For validation of the modeling heat transport processes were investigated in specific test facilities.

  20. Containment Performance Evaluation of a Sodium Fire Event Due to Air Ingress into the Cover Gas Region of the Reactor Vessel in the PGSFR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Sang June; Chang, Won-Pyo; Kang, Seok Hun; Choi, Chi-Woong; Yoo, Jin; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Jae-Ho; Lee, Seung Won; Jeong, Taekyeong; Ha, Kwi-Seok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Comparing with the light water reactor, sodium as a reactor coolant violently reacts with oxygen in the containment atmosphere. Due to this chemical reaction, heat generated from the combustion heat increases the temperature and pressure in the containment atmosphere. The structural integrity of the containment building which is a final radiological defense barrier is threaten. A sodium fire event in the containment due to air ingress into the cover gas region in the reactor vessel is classified as one of the design basis events in the PGSFR. This event comes from a leak or crack on the reactor upper closure header surface. It accompanys an event of the radiological fission products release to the inside the containment. In this paper, evaluation for the sodium fire and radiological influence due to air ingress into the cover gas region of the reactor vessel is described. To evaluate this event, the CONTAIN-LMR, MACCS-II and OR-IGEN-II codes are used. For the sodium pool fire event in the containment, the performance evaluation and radiological influence are carried out. In the thermal hydraulic aspects, the 1 cell containment yields the most conservative result. In this event, the maximum temperature and pressure in the containment are calculated 0.185 MPa, 280.0 .deg. C, respectively. The radiological dose at the EAB and LPZ are below the acceptance criteria specified in the 10CFR100.

  1. Generating scenarios to predict air quality impact in public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, J.M.; Coelho, L.M.R.; Gouveia, C.; Cerdeira, R. [Escola Superior de Tecnologia de Setubal (EST-IPS), Setubal (Portugal); Ferreira, T.; Baptista, M.N. [Hospital Na. Sa. do Rosario, Servico de Pediatria, Barreiro (Portugal)

    2004-07-01

    This study intends to associate air quality with public health by generating air quality scenarios, under different future perspectives in Barreiro. This city is located in middle south of Portugal nearby Lisbon and it has a large resident population, an important industrial area and intense traffic. In this study ADMS-urban was used to simulate the possible scenarios of future air quality in this city, taking into consideration the probable city development and future activities. Special attention was given to the future evolutions of traffic, industrial activities, demographical and geographical expansion. The new EU directives about air quality and the CAFE program were also considered. To correlate the impact of the future air quality of the city and public health, a children population sample was used. This study team is also composed by paediatric doctors from Hospital N{sup a}. S{sup a}. do Rosario that contribute with public health information and helped to identify air quality related diseases. (orig.)

  2. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...

  3. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents the state-of-the art: an analytical model which describes chloride profiles in concrete as function of depth...... makes physical sense for the design engineer, i.e. the achieved chloride diffusion coefficients at 1 year and 100 years, D1 and D100 respectively, and the corresponding achieved chloride concentrations at the exposed concrete surface, C1 and C100. Data from field exposure supports the assumption of time...... dependent surface chloride concentrations and the diffusion coefficients. Model parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash in marine atmospheric and submerged South Scandinavian environment are suggested in a companion paper based on 10 years field exposure data....

  4. Oxidation kinetics of innovative carbon materials with respect to severe air ingress accidents in HTRs and graphite disposal or processing; Oxidationskinetik innovativer Kohlenstoffmaterialien hinsichtlich schwerer Lufteinbruchstoerfaelle in HTR's und Graphitentsorgung oder Aufbereitung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schloegel, Baerbel

    2010-07-01

    Currently future nuclear reactor concepts of the Fourth Generation (Gen IV) are under development. To some extend they apply with new, innovative materials developed just for this purpose. This thesis work aims at a concept of Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR) in the framework of the European project RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation). The concept named ANTARES (AREVA New Technology based on advanced gas-cooled Reactors for Energy Supply) was developed by AEVA NP. It is a helium cooled, graphite moderated modular reactor for electricity and hydrogen production, by providing the necessary process heat due to its high working temperature. Particular attention is given here to oxidation kinetics of newly developed carbon materials (NBG-17) with still unknown but needed information in context of severe air ingress accident in VHTR's. Special interest is paid to the Boudouard reaction, the oxidation of carbon by CO{sub 2}. In case of an air ingress accident, carbon dioxide is produced in the primary reaction of atmospheric oxygen with reflector graphite. From there CO{sub 2} could flow into the reactor core causing further damage by conversion into CO. The purpose of this thesis is to ascertain if and to what degree this could happen. First of all oxidation kinetic data of the Boudouard reaction with NBG-17 is determined by experiments in a thermo gravimetric facility. The measurements are evaluated and converted into a common formula and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood similar oxidation kinetic equation, as input for the computer code REACT/THERMIX. This code is then applied to analyse severe air ingress accidents for several air flow rates. The results are discussed for two accident situations, in which a certain graphite burn off is achieved. All cases show much more damage to the graphite bottom reflector than to the reactor core. Thus the bottom reflector will lose its structural integrity much earlier than the

  5. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    to meet the increasingly intricate demands of both advanced air quality models and more realistic and relevant policy scenarios.

  6. European air pollution in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, A.; Bessagnet, B.; Vautard, R.; Szopa, S.; Rao, S.; Schucht, S.; Klimont, Z.; Holland, M.; Menut, L.; Meleux, F.; Rouïl, L.

    2013-12-01

    Air pollution and climate change are closely related. They share both driving geophysical processes and mitigation strategies. Increased temperature, changes in weather regimes and precipitation patterns will alter the formation of pollution episodes. At the same time curbing greenhouse gases emission will also induce indirect co-benefits for air pollutant emissions. As a consequence, understanding the long-term efficiency of air pollution mitigation strategies requires the integrated implementation of comprehensive geophysical and economical models. Coupling air pollution and climate models for long term projections raise a number of scientific and technical issues. Global scale circulation outputs must be downscaled in order to provide high resolution three dimensional meteorological fields at high temporal frequency to the chemistry transport model. The computational cost of the air quality model is comparable to the cost of the regional climate model. So that the computing demand and storage call for an efficient design of a complex modelling suite. Moreover the cost of the project prohibits the implementation of large ensemble of model, thereby raising concerns on the treatment of uncertainty analyses of the projections. We present an integrated assessment of future air quality that relies on up-to-date emission scenarios and full-frame geophysical models of climate and atmospheric chemistry which are themselves embedded in monetised economical models to propose a cost-benefit assessment. Emissions: For long lived trace species, we use the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) that offer an explicit representation of air quality policies. Climate and chemistry models: We use the latest sources of recent coordinated model intercomparison projects, each

  7. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  8. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  9. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  10. Safety Analysis Results for Cryostat Ingress Accidents in ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, B. J.; Cadwallader, L. C.; Petti, D. A.

    1997-06-01

    Accidents involving the ingress of air, helium, or water into the cryostat of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) tokamak design have been analyzed with a modified version of the MELCOR code for the ITER Non-site Specific Safety Report (NSSR-1). The air ingress accident is the result of a postulated breach of the cryostat boundary into an adjoining room. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed air mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, but that the partial vacuum in the adjoining room must be accommodated in the building design. The water ingress accident is the result of a postulated magnet arc that results in melting of a Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) coolant pipe, discharging PHTS water and PHTS water activated corrosion products and HTO into the cryostat. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed water mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, that the cryostat pressure remains below design limits, and that the corrosion product and HTO releases are well within the ITER release limits.

  11. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Hansen, Per Freiesleben; Coats, Alison M.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar is followed by electron probe microanalysis. The influence of several paste and exposure parameters on chloride ingress are examined (e.g., water-cement ratio, silica fume addition, exposure time, and temperature), The measurements...

  12. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  13. Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project - Information Management System (WWIPIMS), South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hild, S.; Sieste, M.; Barth, A.; Rudinskaya, J. [Beak Consultants GmbH, Freiberg (Germany); Croukamp, L.; Roos, M. [Council for Geoscience (CGS), Pretoria (South Africa)

    2006-07-01

    The Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project at the Council for Geoscience, South Africa (CGS) deals with an inventory, a risk assessment and the development of rehabilitation strategies for abandoned mining sites in the Witwatersrand Mining Basin. The main focus is the prevention of water ingress and to understand the future decanting scenario. An Information Management System consisting of both a relational database and an application for the Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project is established for accessing and managing all project-related data. This easy to use application makes the data available to all staff at the CGS via several modules as well as a GIS-component for accessing and querying spatial data. This will enable the scientists to derive further knowledge of the water flowing processes by directly using all of the existing up-to-date data. Many additional functions, such as the support for map printing on demand, extensive possibilities for inquiries, data import and export, diagrams and a GIS-viewer for spatial inquiries do complete the system. (orig.)

  14. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, O.M.; Hansen, P.F.; Coats, A.M.; Glasser, F.P.

    1999-09-01

    In this paper chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar is followed by electron probe microanalysis. The influence of several paste and exposure parameters on chloride ingress are examined (e.g., water-cement ratio, silica fume addition, exposure time, and temperature). The measurements are modelled on Fick's law modified by a term for chloride binding. Inclusion of chloride binding significantly improves the profile shape of the modelled ingress profiles. The presence of fine aggregate and formation of interfacial transition zones at paste-aggregate boundaries does not significantly affect diffusion rates.

  15. Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamon, Lara; Von Waldow, Harald; Macleod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2009-08-01

    We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE

  16. European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To quantify changes in air pollution in Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant and relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 of IPCC whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or long range transport. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" bearing upon ozone over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature: such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of each contributing factor shows that the magnitude of the ozone climate penalty has been overstated in the past while on the contrary the contribution of the global ozone burden is overlooked in the literature.

  17. European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.

  18. Emissions of indoor air pollutants from six user scenarios in a model room

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllbacher, Eva; Ters, Thomas; Rieder-Gradinger, Cornelia; Srebotnik, Ewald

    2017-02-01

    In this study six common user scenarios putatively influencing indoor air quality were performed in a model room constructed according to the specifications of the European Reference Room given in the new horizontal prestandard prEN 16516 to gain further information about the influence of user activities on indoor air quality. These scenarios included the use of cleaning agent, an electric air freshener, an ethanol fireplace and cosmetics as well as cigarette smoking and peeling of oranges. Four common indoor air pollutants were monitored: volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter (PM), carbonyl compounds and CO2. The development of all pollutants was determined during and after the test performance. For each measured pollutant, well-defined maximum values could be assigned to one or more of the individual user scenarios. The highest VOC concentration was measured during orange-peeling reaching a maximum value of 3547 μg m-3. Carbonyl compounds and PM were strongly elevated while cigarette smoking. Here, a maximum formaldehyde concentration of 76 μg m-3 and PM concentration of 378 μg m-3 were measured. CO2 was only slightly affected by most of the tests except the use of the ethanol fireplace where a maximum concentration of 1612 ppm was reached. Generally, the user scenarios resulted in a distinct increase of several indoor pollutants that usually decreased rapidly after the removal of the source.

  19. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  20. Googles Augmented-Reality-Game "Ingress"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl H. Stingeder

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Das an das "Geocoaching"-Spielprinzip erinnernde Augmented-­Reality-Game "Ingress" ist auf allen mit Android-Betriebssystem ausgestatteten Smartphones spielbar. Das Alleinstellungsmerkmal des Spiels ist gleich­zeitig auch das beste Patent-Rezept für bzw. gegen notorisches "Couch-Potato-ing": Das Game-Design des "Draußenspiels" erfordert jedoch stets die physische Anwesenheit der SpielerInnen am realen Ort des Geschehens, meist touristisch attraktive Sehenswürdigkeiten und architektonisch markante Plätze. Sobald "Ingress" per App am Smart­phone gestartet wird, stehen Interaktionen und Machtverhältnisse auf dem Handy-Display im Dreh- und Angelpunkt des Geschehens. Die Spielgrafik ist auf das Wesentliche reduziert und erinnert an die Optik von Videospielen der 80er Jahre. "Ingress" im Allgemeinen sowie "Magnus13", die erste von Google organisierte Fan-Veranstaltung Österreichs mit mehreren Hundert TeilnehmerInnen und ist mit einer "digitalen Schnitzeljagd" vergleichbar: Gemeinsam ist der klassischen "Schnitzeljagd" und dem digitalen "Schere-Schein-Papier" Prinzip von "Ingress" die tragende Rolle des im Spiel entstehenden Gemeinschaftsgefühls, welche in einer hohen Langzeitmotivation mündet. Trotz aller Euphorie, ob des unkonventionellen Augmented-Reality-Spielkonzepts und des in Folge der sozialen Dynamik außergewöhnlichen Sucht­potentials, ist angesichts von Edward Snowden und vielfältiger NSA-Abhörmaßnahmen, eine gesunde Portion Skepsis angebracht: Welchen Zweck erfüllt "Ingress"? Gibt es ein verhülltes "Mittel zum Zweck"? Welche Gefahren bestehen mit einer systematischen Auswertung des umfangreichen, ortsrelevanten Daten-Sammelsuriums? "Ingress" verdeutlicht trotz aller Risiken den soziokulturellen Bedeutungswandel des digitalen Spiels: Spiele per se und das Spiel als soziale Interaktion sind aktuell dabei, alle Bereiche unseres Lebens zu erfassen.

  1. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-08-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  2. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  3. An evaluation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haidong Kan; Bingheng Chen [Fudan Univ., Dept. of Environmental Health, Shanghai (China); Changhong Chen; Qingyan Fu; Minghua Chen [Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai (China)

    2004-01-01

    To investigate the potential public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the air pollution exposure level of the general population under various planned energy scenarios, and assessed the potential public health impact using the concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. The results show that ambient air pollution in relation to various energy scenarios could have significant impact on the health status of Shanghai residents. Compared with base case scenario, implementation of various energy scenarios could prevent 608-5144 and 1189-10,462 PM{sub 10}-related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively; and it could also decrease substantial cases of relevant diseases. These findings illustrate that an effective energy and environmental policy will play an active role in reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and public health. (Author)

  4. Impacts of Changes of Indoor Air Pressure and Air Exchange Rate in Vapor Intrusion Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Rui; Suuberg, Eric M

    2016-02-01

    There has, in recent years, been increasing interest in understanding the transport processes of relevance in vapor intrusion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into buildings on contaminated sites. These studies have included fate and transport modeling. Most such models have simplified the prediction of indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations by employing a steady state assumption, which often results in difficulties in reconciling these results with field measurements. This paper focuses on two major factors that may be subject to significant transients in vapor intrusion situations, including the indoor air pressure and the air exchange rate in the subject building. A three-dimensional finite element model was employed with consideration of daily and seasonal variations in these factors. From the results, the variations of indoor air pressure and air exchange rate are seen to contribute to significant variations in indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations. Depending upon the assumptions regarding the variations in these parameters, the results are only sometimes consistent with the reports of several orders of magnitude in indoor air concentration variations from field studies. The results point to the need to examine more carefully the interplay of these factors in order to quantitatively understand the variations in potential indoor air exposures.

  5. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  6. Ingress in Geography: Portals to Academic Success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Niantic Labs has developed an augmented virtual reality mobile app game called Ingress in which agents must seek out and control locations for their designated factions. The app uses the Google Maps interface along with GPS to enhance a geocaching-like experience with elements of other classical games such as capture-the-flag. This study aims to…

  7. Assessment of NGNP Moisture Ingress Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bill Landman

    2011-04-01

    An assessment of modular HTGR moisture ingress events, making use of a phenomena identification and ranking process, was conducted by a panel of experts in the related areas for the U.S. next generation nuclear plant (NGNP) design. Consideration was given mainly to the prismatic core gas-cooled reactor configurations incorporating a steam generator within the primary circuit.

  8. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  9. Analysis of baseline and alternative air quality scenarios for Pakistan: an integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir, Kaleem Anwar; Purohit, Pallav; Goldstein, Gary A; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

    2016-11-01

    This study aims to assess the current and future air pollution and associated health impacts in Pakistan. In this study, the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) is used to assess current and future energy consumption in Pakistan. To assess air pollution levels and associated health impacts, we used the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model. A linkage has been established between both the models to feed the energy outputs from Pak-IEM into GAINS for exploring different scenarios. Mainly, the emissions of three air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) as well as the associated health impacts of increased emissions are assessed. Baseline emission scenario (BES) shows a growth in emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by a factor of 2.4, 2.2, and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030, annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) would increase to more than 150 μg/m(3) in some parts of Punjab region of Pakistan, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30 to 60 months in 2007 up to 60-100 months in 2030 on average.

  10. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  11. Chloride Ingress into Concrete under Water Pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mia Schou; Sander, Lotte Braad; Grelk, Bent;

    2011-01-01

    The chloride ingress into concrete under water pressures of 100 kPa and 800 kPa have been investigated by experiments. The specimens were exposed to a 10% NaCl solution and water mixture. For the concrete having w/c = 0.35 the experimental results show the chloride diffusion coefficient at 800 k......Pa (~8 atm.) is 12 times greater than at 100 kPa (~1 atm.). For w/c = 0.45 and w/c = 0.55 the chloride diffusion coefficients are 7 and 3 times greater. This means that a change in pressure highly influences the chloride ingress into the concrete and thereby the life length models for concrete structures....

  12. ANALISIS EFEK KECELAKAAN WATER INGRESS TERHADAP REAKTIVITAS DOPPLER TERAS RGTT200K

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhair Zuhair

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Dalam high temperature reactor, koefisien reaktivitas temperatur yang didesain negatif menjamin reaksi fisi dalam teras tetap berada di bawah kendali dan panas peluruhan tidak akan pernah melelehkan bahan bakar yang menyebabkan terlepasnya zat radioaktif ke lingkungan. Namun masuknya air (water ingress ke dalam teras reaktor akibat pecahnya tabung penukar panas generator uap, yang dikenal sebagai salah satu kecelakaan dasar desain, dapat mengintroduksi reaktivitas positif dengan potensi bahaya lainnya seperti korosi grafit dan kerusakan material struktur reflektor. Makalah ini akan menganalisis efek kecelakaan water ingress terhadap reaktivitas Doppler teras RGTT200K. Kapabilitas koefisien reaktivitas Doppler untuk mengkompensasi reaktivitas positif yang timbul selama kecelakaan water ingress akan diuji melalui serangkaian perhitungan dengan program MCNPX dan pustaka ENDF/B-VII untuk perubahan temperatur bahan bakar dari 800K hingga 1800K. Tiga opsi kernel bahan bakar UO2, ThO2/UO2 dan PuO2 dengan tiga model kisi bahan bakar pebble di teras reaktor diterapkan untuk kondisi water ingress dengan densitas air dari 0 hingga 1.000 kg/m3. Hasil perhitungan memperlihatkan koefisien reaktivitas Doppler tetap negatif untuk seluruh opsi bahan bakar yang dipertimbangkan bahkan untuk posibilitas water ingress yang besar. Efek water ingress lebih kuat pada model kisi dengan fraksi packing lebih rendah karena lebih banyak volume yang tersedia untuk air yang memasuki teras reaktor. Efek water ingress juga lebih kuat di teras uranium dibandingkan teras thorium dan plutonium sebagai konsekuensi dari fenomena Doppler dimana absorpsi neutron di daerah resonansi 238U lebih besar daripada 232Th dan 240Pu. Secara keseluruhan dapat disimpulkan bahwa, koefisien Doppler teras RGTT200K mampu mengkompensasi insersi reaktivitas yang diintroduksi oleh kecelakaan water ingress. Teras RGTT200K dengan bahan bakar UO2, ThO2/UO2 dan PuO2 dapat mempertahankan fitur keselamatan

  13. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  14. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2016-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012-2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of-pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  15. Water Ingress Failure Analysis of Whistler II Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    be addressed to reduce the risk of water ingress. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Failure Analysis, Water Ingress, Ingress Protection, Rain Test 16. SECURITY...conversion coated and should not have been subject to corrosion with exposure to ordinary rain water . The batteries were highly corroded, and some...steel/chromate conversion coated. Corrosion of the star washers was greater than would be expected by normal rain water at normal temperatures

  16. Chloride ingress profiles measured by electron probe micro analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, O.M. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom). Dept. of Chemistry]|[Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). Dept. of Structural Engineering and Materials; Coats, A.M.; Glasser, F.P. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom). Dept. of Chemistry

    1996-11-01

    Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA is demonstrated to determine chloride ingress in cement paste on a micrometer scale. Potential chloride ingress routes such as cracks or the paste-aggregate interface may also be characterized by EPMA.

  17. Chloride ingress profiles measured by electron probe micro analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole mejlhede; Coats, Alison M.; Glasser, Fred P.

    1996-01-01

    Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA...... is demonstated to determine chloride ingress in cement paste on a micrometer scale. Potential chloride ingress routes such as cracks or the paste-aggregate interface may also be characterized by EPMA. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd...

  18. Chloride Ingress into Concrete under Water Pressure

    OpenAIRE

    Lund, Mia Schou; Sander, Lotte Braad; Grelk, Bent; Hansen, Kurt Kielsgaard

    2011-01-01

    The chloride ingress into concrete under water pressures of 100 kPa and 800 kPa have been investigated by experiments. The specimens were exposed to a 10% NaCl solution and water mixture. For the concrete having w/c = 0.35 the experimental results show the chloride diffusion coefficient at 800 kPa (~8 atm.) is 12 times greater than at 100 kPa (~1 atm.). For w/c = 0.45 and w/c = 0.55 the chloride diffusion coefficients are 7 and 3 times greater. This means that a change in pressure highly infl...

  19. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  20. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  1. Modeled effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution, health and societal costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bønløkke, Jakob Hjort; Holst, Gitte Juel; Sigsgaard, Torben

    2015-01-01

    and the resulting effects on health and economy. Methods: Projected energy savings between 2005 and 2020 were calculated for an improved building insulation scenario and a business as usual scenario. The resulting changes in emissions (e.g. from power plants) were used in the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model...... with extensions. Mean annual changes in the main air pollutants were derived for each country. World Health Organization (WHO) and European Union (EU) data on populations and on impacts of pollutants were used to derive health effects and costs. Effects on indoor air quality were not assessed. Results: Projected...... 78678 LY in Europe. A total of 7173 cases of persistent chronic bronchitis could be avoided annually. Several other health outcomes improved similarly. The saved societal costs totaled 6.64 billion € annually. Conclusions: In addition to carbon emission reductions, an improved building insulation...

  2. A comprehensive probabilistic model of chloride ingress in unsaturated concrete

    OpenAIRE

    Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio; Bressolette, Philippe; Schoefs, Franck

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Corrosion induced by chloride ions has become a critical issue for many reinforced concrete structures. The chloride ingress into concrete has been usually simplified as a diffusion problem where the chloride concentration throughout concrete is estimated analytically. However, this simplified approach has several limitations. For instance, it does not consider chloride ingress by convection which is essential to model chloride penetration in unsaturated conditions as ...

  3. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  4. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  5. Design for air-to-air refuelling operations; new passenger and tanker aircraft design for AAR scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, M.O.

    2014-01-01

    Air-to-air refuelling is a way to improve fuel efficiency of the overall transport system without waiting for the improvement of basic aviation technology. To take full advantage of such an operation, both passenger aircraft and tanker aircraft (which deliver required fuel to the passenger aircraft

  6. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  7. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  8. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  9. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  10. Microwave evaluation of accelerated chloride ingress in mortar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, C.; Case, T.; Castle, M.; Zoughi, R.; Kurtis, K.

    2001-04-01

    Corrosion of steel in reinforced concrete structures can be induced by the presence of chloride ions near the steel/concrete interface. To show the potential of microwave nondestructive testing techniques for evaluating chloride ingress, 8″×8″×8″ mortar specimens with different mixture designs were prepared. To accelerate chloride ingress, they were exposed to cyclical wet/dry conditions, where the wet condition included exposure to salt bath. A complete discussion of the results will be presented in this paper.

  11. Engineering Strategies and Methods for Avoiding Air-Quality Externalities: Dispersion Modeling, Home Energy Conservation, and Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knox, Andrew James

    Energy conservation can improve air quality by reducing emissions from fuel combustion. The human health value retained through better air quality can then offset the cost of energy conservation. Through this thesis' innovative yet widely-accessible combination of air pollution dispersion modeling and atmospheric chemistry, it is estimated that the health value retained by avoiding emissions from Ontario's former coal-fired generating stations is 5.74/MWh (using an upper-bound value of 265,000 per year of life lost). This value is combined with energy modeling of homes in the first-ever assessment of the air-quality health benefits of low-energy buildings. It is shown that avoided health damages can equal 7% of additional construction costs of energy efficient buildings in Ontario. At 7%, health savings are a significant item in the cost analysis of efficient buildings. Looking to energy efficiency in the context of likely future low-resource natural gas scenarios, building efficient buildings today is shown to be more economically efficient than any building retrofit option. Considering future natural gas scarcity in the context of Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan reveals that Ontario may be forced to return to coal-fired electricity. Projected coal use would result in externalities greater than $600 million/year; 80% more than air-quality externalities from Ontario's electricity in 1985. Radically aggressive investment in electricity conservation (75% reduction per capita by 2075) is one promising path forward that keeps air-quality externalities below 1985 levels. Non-health externalities are an additional concern, the quantification, and ultimately monetization, of which could be practical using emerging air pollution monitoring technologies. Energy, conservation, energy planning, and energy's externalities form a complex situation in which today's decisions are critical to a successful future. It is clear that reducing the demand for energy is essential and

  12. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staliulionis, Zygimantas; Jabbaribehnam, Mirmasoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2016-01-01

    loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based...

  13. Experimental and numerical investigation of chloride ingress in cracked concrete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Šavija, B.

    2014-01-01

    Chloride induced corrosion of reinforcing steel is recognized as the most common deterioration mechanism affecting reinforced concrete structures. As such, it has been in focus of research for more than thirty years. Numerous studies of chloride ingress, corrosion initiation, and corrosion propagati

  14. Autogeneous healing and chloride ingress in cracked concrete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Savija, B.; Schlangen, E.

    2016-01-01

    An experimental study of the influence of autogeneous healing on chloride ingress in cracked concrete is presented. In the study, two concrete mixtures (a Portland cement mix and a blast furnace slag mix), two healing regimes (submerged and fog room regime), two cracking ages (14 and 28 days), and m

  15. Chloride Ingress in Concrete Cracks under Cyclic Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Küter, André; Geiker, Mette Rica; Olesen, John Forbes;

    2005-01-01

    was similar for both sets and the maximum crack width was kept constant throughout the exposure period by means of precracking and an external prestressed reinforcement. Chloride profiles after 40 days revealed a considerable increase in ingress towards the crack tip in contrast to data from the literature...

  16. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular hy

  17. Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World

    Science.gov (United States)

    On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed o...

  18. Indoor air quality scenario in India-An outline of household fuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohra, Himanshi; Taneja, Ajay

    2016-03-01

    Most of the research around the world has been on outdoor air pollution, but in India we have a more severe problem of Indoor Air Pollution (IAP). The foremost factor cited for is burning of fossil fuels for cooking. Among the 70% of the country's rural population, about 80% households rely on biomass fuel making India to top the list of countries with largest population lacking access to cleaner fuel for cooking. 4 million deaths and 5% disability-adjusted life-years is an upshot of exposure to IAP from unhealthy cooking making it globally the most critical environmental risk factor. India alone bears the highest burden (28% needless deaths) among developing countries. Moreover, about ¼ of ambient PM2.5 in the country comes from household cookfuels. These considerations have prompted the discussion of the present knowledge on the disastrous health effects of pollutants emitted by biomass combustion in India. Additionally, Particulate Matter as an indoor air pollutant is highlighted with main focus on its spatial temporal variation and some recent Indian studies are further explored. As there are no specific norms for IAP in India, urgent need has arisen for implementing the strategies to create public awareness. Moreover improvement in ventilation and modification in the pattern of fuel will also contribute to eradicate this national health issue.

  19. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  20. Prediction of chloride ingress and binding in cement paste

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geiker, Mette Rica; Nielsen, Erik Pram; Herforth, Duncan

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes recent work on an analytical model for predicting the ingress rate of chlorides in cement-based materials. An integral part of this is a thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement. The model’s ability to predict chloride binding...... in Portland cement pastes at any content of chloride, alkalis, sulfates and carbonate was verified experimentally and found to be equally valid when applied to other data in the literature. The thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement was introduced into an existing...... Finite Difference Model for the ingress of chlorides into concrete which takes into account its multi-component nature. The “composite theory” was then used to predict the diffusivity of each ion based on the phase assemblage present in the hydrated Portland cement paste. Agreement was found between...

  1. Wet oxidation of stainless steels: New insights into hydrogen ingress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brady, Michael P [ORNL; Fayek, Mostafa [University of Manitoba, Canada; Keiser, James R [ORNL; Meyer III, Harry M [ORNL; More, Karren Leslie [ORNL; Anovitz, Lawrence {Larry} M [ORNL; Wesolowski, David J [ORNL; Cole, David R [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    detrimental effect. However, the complexities of tracking hydrogen in these materials have prevented the direct profiling of hydrogen ingress needed to understand these phenomena. Here we report hydrogen profiles in industrially-relevant alumina- and chromia-forming steels correlated with the local oxidemetal nano/microstructure by use of SIMS D2O tracer studies and experimental protocols to optimize D retention. The D profiles unexpectedly varied markedly among the alloys examined, which indicates mechanistic complexity but also the potential to mitigate detrimental water vapor effects by manipulation of alloy chemistry.

  2. Fire's effect on chloride ingress related durability of concrete structure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Wei-liang; ZHANG Yi

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes the effects of fire on durability of reinforced concrete structures, and points out that fire not only damages the chemical composition and physical structure of concrete by high temperature, but also leads to an additional risk due to the generation of polyvinyl chloride (PVC)combustion gases. A mathematical model is proposed to calculate chloride ingress profiles in fire damaged concrete, so as to explore the service life prediction of the structure. Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) test was carried out to determine the chloride diffusion coefficients for the application of the mathematical model. Finally, the detected results of a reported case testified to the validity of the mathematical model.

  3. Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015 for the upper Rhine valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Ponche

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area and regional (upper Rhine valley scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

  4. Emission scenarios for air quality management and applications at local and regional scales including the effects of the future European emission regulation (2015 for the upper Rhine valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Ponche

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Air quality modeling associated with emission scenarios has become an important tool for air quality management. The set-up of realistic emission scenarios requires accurate emission inventories including the whole methodology used to calculate the emissions. This means a good description of the source characteristics including a detailed composition of the emitted fluxes. Two main approaches are used. The so-called bottom-up approach that relies on the modification of the characteristics of the sources and the top-down approach whose goal is generally to reach standard pollutant concentration levels. This paper is aimed at providing a general methodology for the elaboration of such emission scenarios and giving examples of applications at local and regional scales for air quality management. The first example concerns the impact of the installation of the urban tramway in place of the road traffic in the old centre of Strasbourg. The second example deals with the use of oxygenated and reformulated car fuels on local (Strasbourg urban area and regional (upper Rhine valley scales. Finally, we analyze in detail the impacts of the incoming European emission regulation for 2015 on the air quality of the upper Rhine valley.

  5. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  6. Non-destructive evaluation of water ingress in photovoltaic modules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bora, Mihail; Kotovsky, Jack

    2017-03-07

    Systems and techniques for non-destructive evaluation of water ingress in photovoltaic modules include and/or are configured to illuminate a photovoltaic module comprising a photovoltaic cell and an encapsulant with at least one beam of light having a wavelength in a range from about 1400 nm to about 2700 nm; capture one or more images of the illuminated photovoltaic module, each image relating to a water content of the photovoltaic module; and determine a water content of the photovoltaic module based on the one or more images. Systems preferably include one or more of a light source, a moving mirror, a focusing lens, a beam splitter, a stationary mirror, an objective lens and an imaging module.

  7. Binder content influences on chloride ingress in concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dhir, R.K.; Jones, M.R.; McCarthy, M.J. [Univ. of Dundee (United Kingdom)

    1996-12-01

    The reported study looked at the effect of reducing free water contents, and thereby binder contents, and thereby binder contents, on the ingress of chloride in concrete. Concretes with equal water/binder ratio (and design strength), but with water contents reduced by up to 30 liters/m{sup 3}, were tested for chloride diffusion (D) and penetration. The quality of the microstructure was inferred from initial surface absorption tests (ISAT). The results show no practical difference in chloride durability between the corresponding concretes, and that reducing the binder content, (providing that the water/binder ratio is maintained) is not likely to be detrimental. However, the results reported underline the importance of binder type, in this case PFA. Implications of the results are discussed and, in light of the findings, whether specifications which demand minimum cement contents are justified.

  8. Probabilistic Models and Computational Methods for Chloride Ingress in Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.

    Within the last decades it has been recognized that reinforced concrete structures are subject to a number of destructive mechanisms which might affect the structure in such a way that it is not able to fulfil its purpose efficiently. The present report focuses on chloride ingress and chloride......-initiated corrosion of the reinforcement, because experience has shown that in Denmark this is one of the most common destructive mechanisms. In order to ensure that a given reinforced concrete structure is able to fulfil its purpose extensive measurements are performed and on the basis of these measurements...... are costly, and careful planning is mandatory. The planning can be performed on the basis of classical decision theory (see e.g. Raiffa and Schlaifer). However, in order to use decision theory, it is necessary to formulate a probabilistic model of the considered problem....

  9. Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuwah, C.; van Noije, T.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hazeleger, W.; Strunk, A.; Deetman, S.; Beltran, A.M.; van Vliet, J.

    2013-01-01

    The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control pol

  10. IMPACT OF CHLORIDES ON REINFORCED CONCRETE: SIMULATION OF ITS INGRESS IN CONCRETE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Leonovich

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a model for evaluation of environmental conditions that influence on reinforced highway structures. The models is applied for calculation of chloride ingress in concrete structures while using de-icing salt.

  11. IMPACT OF CHLORIDES ON REINFORCED CONCRETE: SIMULATION OF ITS INGRESS IN CONCRETE

    OpenAIRE

    S. Leonovich; A. Prasol

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents a model for evaluation of environmental conditions that influence on reinforced highway structures. The models is applied for calculation of chloride ingress in concrete structures while using de-icing salt.

  12. Experimental and Numerical Investigations of the Influence of Real Cracks on Chloride Ingress in Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sosdean Corina

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Experimental and numerical results of a chloride ingress study conducted on samples drilled from different locations of a reinforced concrete slab, previously loaded until failure, are presented. The experimental part was carried on following the NT Build 492 standard for the non-steady state migration test, then a 3D model was developed using the Abaqus/Standard software based on the FEM in order to simulate chloride ingress in both uncracked and cracked concrete.

  13. CyberCIEGE scenario illustrating software integrity issues and management of air-gapped networks in a military environment

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Chay

    2005-01-01

    The importance of Information Assurance (IA) in military operations cannot be overstated. It is a sine qua non that achieving IA requires the effort of all personnel in the organization; just a single untrained end-user is needed to defeat many well thought-out and well-executed security strategies This thesis demonstrated that CyberCIEGE, with its rich elements and tools, can be used to create game scenarios, mimicking real life IA issues, for conveying security lessons to a wide audience...

  14. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Markakis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (−3.5 ppb in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large

  15. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    urbanized area. Additionally, we thought that the difference of variables like surface temperature and PBL height will surely create the variation of the future air quality in SMA. So, we examined the CMAQ (Community Modeling and Analysis System) model, which is usually to predict the timely variation and the spatial distribution of air pollutant like ozone, particular matter, to know the possibility of the prediction of the future air quality changes under the urban growth changes and ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios. To make the initial emission data for CMAQ modeling, we analyzed the National Air Pollutants emission data for past 12 years (1999~2010) generated by National institute of Environmental Research in Korea and assumed that future emission is increased linearly by 2050.

  16. Impacts of air pollution on cultural heritage corrosion at European level: What has been achieved and what are the future scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Turo, Francesca; Proietti, Chiara; Screpanti, Augusto; Fornasier, M Francesca; Cionni, Irene; Favero, Gabriele; De Marco, Alessandra

    2016-11-01

    The interaction of pollutants with Cultural Heritage materials leads to artworks and materials degradation and loss, causing an unpriceless damage. This works aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution and meteorological conditions on limestone, copper and bronze and represents the European risk assessment for corrosion of Cultural Heritage materials. The measures and policies for atmospheric pollution reduction have cut off the SO2 concentration and consequently its impact on materials is drastically reduced. Indeed, in 1980 the number of UNESCO sites in danger was extremely high (94% for limestone, 54% for copper and 1% for bronze) while in 2010 these sites did not exceed the tolerable value of surface recession and corrosion. However, some problem related to air pollution persists. In particular, Random Forest Analysis (RFA), highlights PM10 as the main responsible for materials corrosion, in 2010. Two scenarios in 2030 have been tested, highlighting that the corrosion levels of limestone, copper and bronze exceed the tolerable limits only in the Balkan area and Turkey. Our results show the importance in the air quality modelling as a powerful tool for the UNESCO sites conservation.

  17. The shocking transit of WASP-12b: Modelling the observed early ingress in the near ultraviolet

    CERN Document Server

    Llama, J; Jardine, M; Vidotto, A A; Helling, Ch; Fossati, L; Haswell, C A

    2011-01-01

    Near ultraviolet observations of WASP-12b have revealed an early ingress compared to the optical transit lightcurve. This has been interpreted as due to the presence of a magnetospheric bow shock which forms when the relative velocity of the planetary and stellar material is supersonic. We aim to reproduce this observed early ingress by modelling the stellar wind (or coronal plasma) in order to derive the speed and density of the material at the planetary orbital radius. From this we determine the orientation of the shock and the density of compressed plasma behind it. With this model for the density structure surrounding the planet we perform Monte Carlo radiation transfer simulations of the near UV transits of WASP-12b with and without a bow shock. We find that we can reproduce the transit lightcurves with a wide range of plasma temperatures, shock geometries and optical depths. Our results support the hypothesis that a bow shock could explain the observed early ingress.

  18. Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic Prediction and Extension through Prevention of Water Ingress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Inspection. Reliability Engineering and System Safety , 271-292. 47 Shi, P., & Mahadevan, S. (2001). Damage Tolerance Approach for Probabilistic ...Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic Prediction and Extension through Prevention of Water Ingress By Douglas E. Jonart M.S. Systems...number. 1. REPORT DATE 01 JUN 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic

  19. Chloride ingress in cracked concrete: a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Savija, B.; Schlangen, E.; Pacheco Farias, J.; Millar, S.; Eichler, T.; Wilsch, G.

    2014-01-01

    racks are always present in reinforced concrete structures. In the presented research, influence of mechanical cracks on chloride ingress is studied. A compact reinforced concrete specimen was designed, mimicking the cracking behaviour of beam elements. Cracks of different widths were induced by mea

  20. Recurrent studies of chloride ingress in uncracked marine concrete at various exposure times and elevations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandburg, P. [Lund Inst. of Tech. (Sweden). Div. of Building Materials; Tang, L. [Swedish National Testing and Research Inst., Boraes (Sweden); Andersen, A. [Chalmers Univ., Goeteborg (Sweden). Div. of Building Materials

    1998-10-01

    Uncracked reinforced concrete slabs were field exposed mounted on a floating pontoon and partly submerged for 5 years at the Swedish west coast. The total chloride ingress was analyzed at various exposure times at 3 elevations representing a submerged, a splash, and an atmospheric exposure zone. The concrete mixtures varied in w/c ratio, type of cement, and amount and type of pozzolan used in the binder. The data is unique as it represents recurrently measured total chloride penetration profiles at various exposure ages, providing a foundation for the prediction of chloride ingress in concrete in a given environment. The results after 5 years of exposure confirmed the expected inverse relationship between water-to-binder ratio and chloride ingress. The use of 5--10% silica fume in the binder had a very positive effect on reducing the chloride ingress, but little or no benefit at all was found for concrete with fly ash in the binder as compared to the use of 5% silica fume. The chloride penetration rate as expressed by a calculated effective chloride diffusivity has a tendency to decrease over time. High-performance concrete with w/c {le} 0.4 and a minimum of 5% silica fume added as a well dispersed slurry exhibited an effective chloride diffusivity in the range of 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}13} to 5 {times} 10{sup {minus}13} m{sup 2}/s after 5 years exposure in the splash zone.

  1. Chloride ingress in cracked concrete studied using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Savija, B.; Pacheco Farias, J.; Schlangen, E.; Millar, S.; Eichler, T.; Wilsch, G.

    2014-01-01

    Cracks are always present in reinforced concrete structures. It is a goal of the current research to study the influence of mechanical cracks on chloride ingress. A compact reinforced concrete specimen was designed, mimicking the cracking behaviour of beam elements. Cracks of different widths were i

  2. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar measured by Electron Probe Micro Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

    1998-01-01

    .Chloride ingress in modern concretes cannot be followed with conventional measuring techniques. This makes it difficult to develop and test new models. However, prefatory experiments have shown that electron probe micro analysis, EPMA, is applicable for this purpose. The geometric resolution for the EPMA method...

  3. An improved statistical model for predicting the deuterium ingress in zirconium alloy pressure tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandey, M.D., E-mail: mdpandey@uwaterloo.ca [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1 (Canada); Xin, L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1 (Canada)

    2012-09-15

    In the CANDU pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR), the nuclear fuel is contained in hundreds of Zr-2.5 Nb alloy pressure tubes. The corrosion of zirconium alloy produces deuterium that is absorbed by the body of the pressure tube. The presence of this deuterium causes hydrogen embrittlement of zirconium alloy with an adverse effect on the integrity of the pressure tube. An accurate prediction of deuterium accumulation over time is an important step for ensuring the fitness-for-service of pressure tubes. Deuterium ingress data collected from in-service inspection of pressure tubes exhibit heteroscedasticity, i.e., the variance of deuterium concentration is dependent on operating time (or exposure) and temperature. The currently used model by the nuclear industry involves a logarithmic regression of deuterium content over time and temperature. Since this approach does not deal with heteroscedasticity precisely, it results in a conservative prediction of the deuterium ingress. The paper presents a new approach for predicting deuterium ingress based on a weighted least-squares (WLS) regression that overcomes the limitations of the existing model, and it provides realistic prediction bounds of deuterium ingress.

  4. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  5. Influence of temporal resolution and processing of exposure data on modeling of chloride ingress and reinforcement corrosion in concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flint, Madeleine; Michel, Alexander; Billington, Sarah L.;

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of temporal resolution and processing of exposure data on the long-term chloride ingress and reinforcement corrosion in concrete were studied. Exposure data from one simulated and two real climates was processed to create boundary conditions for a one-dimensional geometry studied using...... resolution of the exposure data has a considerable impact on long-term hygrothermal distribution, chloride ingress, and reinforcement section loss results. Use of time-averaged exposure data in the heat and mass transport model reduces the rate of chloride ingress in concrete and affects prediction...

  6. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  7. Oxygen ingress study of 3D printed gaseous radiation detector enclosures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steer, Christopher A.; Durose, Aaron [AWE, Alderrnaston, Reading, Berkshire, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-01

    As part of our ongoing studies into the potential application of 3D printing techniques to gaseous radiation detectors, we have studied the ability of 3D printed enclosures to resist environmental oxygen ingress. A set of cuboid and hexagonal prism shaped enclosures with wall thicknesses of 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm and 10 mm were designed and printed in nylon using a EOSINT P 730 Selective Laser Sintering 3D printer system These test enclosures provide a comparison of different environmental gas ingress for different 3D printing techniques. The rate of change of oxygen concentration was found to be linear, decreasing as the wall thickness increases. It was also found that the hexagonal prism geometry produced a lower rate of change of oxygen concentration compared with the cuboid shaped enclosures. Possible reasons as to why these results were obtained are discussed The implications for the this study for deployable systems are also discussed (authors)

  8. Present limitations of models for predicting chloride ingress into reinforced concrete structures Present

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, L.O. [Lund Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Building Materials, PO Box 118, 221 00 Lund (Sweden)

    2006-07-01

    Models to predict chloride ingress are numerous but all of them have serious limitations that restrict the present use for long term predictions. An overview is given of the fundamental differences between various models, from those based on Fick's 2. with constant or time-dependent diffusion coefficients and surface chloride contents, to those based on chloride transport equations with or without a multi-species approach. The key advantages and limitations of each type of model are identified and the research needs are summarized and discussed. The three main limitations are shown to be (i) the lack of understanding the time-dependency of the apparent chloride diffusion coefficients, (ii) the lack of good long-term data, the chloride content increase with time close to the exposed surface and (iii) the difficulties in quantifying the boundary conditions for sophisticated ingress models. (author)

  9. Present limitations of models for predicting chloride ingress into reinforced concrete structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, L.-O.

    2006-11-01

    Models to predict chloride ingress are numerous but all of them have serious limitations that restrict the present use for long term predictions. An overview is given of the fundamental differences between various models, from those based on Fick's 2nd with constant or time-dependent diffusion coefficients and surface chloride contents, to those based on chloride transport equations with or without a multi-species approach. The key advantages and limitations of each type of model are identified and the research needs are summarized and discussed. The three main limitations are shown to be (i) the lack of understanding the time-dependency of the apparent chloride diffusion coefficients, (ii) the lack of good long-term data, the chloride content increase with time close to the exposed surface and (iii) the difficulties in quantifying the boundary conditions for sophisticated ingress models.

  10. A simulation study of dispersion of air borne radionuclides from a nuclear power plant under a hypothetical accidental scenario at a tropical coastal site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, C. V.; Venkatesan, R.

    Meteorological condition in coastal regions is diurnally variable and spatially heterogeneous due to complex topography, land-sea interface, etc. A wide range of dispersion conditions is possible on a given day in the coastal regions. In case of inadvertent accidental situations, though unlikely, it would be necessary to examine the potentially severe case among different dynamically occurring local atmospheric conditions for dispersion and its range of impact around a nuclear power plant for safety analysis. In this context, dispersion of air borne radioactive effluents during a hypothetical accidental scenario from a proposed prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) at an Indian coastal site, Kalpakkam, is simulated using a 3-D meso-scale atmospheric model MM5 and a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. A simulation carried out for a typical summer day predicted the development of land-sea breeze circulation and thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) formation, which have been confirmed by meteorological observations. Analysis of dose distribution shows that the maximum dose for releases from a 100 m stack occurs at two places within 4 km distance during sea breeze/TIBL fumigation hours. Maximum dose also occurred during nighttime stable conditions. Results indicate that, on the day of present study, the highest concentrations occurred during periods of TIBL fumigation rather than during stable atmospheric conditions. Further, the area of impact (plume width at the surface) spreads up to a down wind distance of 4 km during fumigation condition. Simulation over a range of 25 km has shown turning of plume at the incidence of sea breeze circulation and two different dispersion patterns across the sea breeze front. These results are significant in comparison to the expected pattern shown by Gaussian plume model used for routine analysis.

  11. Evaluation of ATP measurements to detect microbial ingress by wastewater and surface water in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vang, Óluva K; Corfitzen, Charlotte B; Smith, Christian; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2014-11-01

    Fast and reliable methods are required for monitoring of microbial drinking water quality in order to protect public health. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was investigated as a potential real-time parameter for detecting microbial ingress in drinking water contaminated with wastewater or surface water. To investigate the ability of the ATP assay in detecting different contamination types, the contaminant was diluted with non-chlorinated drinking water. Wastewater, diluted at 10(4) in drinking water, was detected with the ATP assay, as well as 10(2) to 10(3) times diluted surface water. To improve the performance of the ATP assay in detecting microbial ingress in drinking water, different approaches were investigated, i.e. quantifying microbial ATP or applying reagents of different sensitivities to reduce measurement variations; however, none of these approaches contributed significantly in this respect. Compared to traditional microbiological methods, the ATP assay could detect wastewater and surface water in drinking water to a higher degree than total direct counts (TDCs), while both heterotrophic plate counts (HPC 22 °C and HPC 37 °C) and Colilert-18 (Escherichia coli and coliforms) were more sensitive than the ATP measurements, though with much longer response times. Continuous sampling combined with ATP measurements displays definite monitoring potential for microbial drinking water quality, since microbial ingress in drinking water can be detected in real-time with ATP measurements. The ability of the ATP assay to detect microbial ingress is influenced by both the ATP load from the contaminant itself and the ATP concentration in the specific drinking water. Consequently, a low ATP concentration of the specific drinking water facilitates a better detection of a potential contamination of the water supply with the ATP assay.

  12. Vision-Aided Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro Aerial Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockers, Roland; Ma, Jeremy C.; Matthies, Larry H.; Bouffard, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Micro aerial vehicles have limited sensor suites and computational power. For reconnaissance tasks and to conserve energy, these systems need the ability to autonomously land at vantage points or enter buildings (ingress). But for autonomous navigation, information is needed to identify and guide the vehicle to the target. Vision algorithms can provide egomotion estimation and target detection using input from cameras that are easy to include in miniature systems.

  13. Effect of steam corrosion on core post strength loss: I. Low, chronic steam ingress rates. [HTGR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wichner, R.P.

    1976-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the effect of chronic, low levels of steam ingress into the primary system of the HTGR on the corrosion, and consequent strength loss of the core support posts. The assessment proceeded through the following three steps: (1) The impurity composition in the primary system was estimated as a function of a range of steady ingress rates of from 0.001 to 1.0 g/sec, both by means of an analysis of the Dragon steam ingress experiment and a computer code, TIMOX, which treats the primary system as a well-mixed pot. (2) The core post burnoffs which result from 40-year exposures to these determined impurity atmospheres were then estimated using a corrosion rate expression derived from published ATJ-graphite corrosion rate data. Burnoffs were determined for both the core posts at the nominal and the maximum sustained temperature, estimated to be 90/sup 0/C above nominal. (3) The final step involved assessment of the degree of strength loss resulting from the estimated burnoffs. An empirical equation was developed for this purpose which compares reasonably well with strength loss data for a number of different graphites and specimen geometries.

  14. Decadal application of WRF/chem for regional air quality and climate modeling over the U.S. under the representative concentration pathways scenarios. Part 2: Current vs. future simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, Khairunnisa; Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive model evaluation, this Part II paper presents projected changes in future (2046-2055) climate, air quality, and their interactions under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using the Weather, Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem). In general, both WRF/Chem RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar increases on average (∼2 °C) for 2-m temperature (T2) but different spatial distributions of the projected changes in T2, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, precipitation, and planetary boundary layer height, due to differences in the spatial distributions of projected emissions, and their feedbacks into climate. Future O3 mixing ratios will decrease for most parts of the U.S. under the RCP4.5 scenario but increase for all areas under the RCP8.5 scenario due to higher projected temperature, greenhouse gas concentrations and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, higher O3 values for boundary conditions, and disbenefit of NOx reduction and decreased NO titration over VOC-limited O3 chemistry regions. Future PM2.5 concentrations will decrease for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with different trends in projected concentrations of individual PM species. Total cloud amounts decrease under both scenarios in the future due to decreases in PM and cloud droplet number concentration thus increased radiation. Those results illustrate the impacts of carbon policies with different degrees of emission reductions on future climate and air quality. The WRF/Chem and WRF simulations show different spatial patterns for projected changes in T2 for future decade, indicating different impacts of prognostic and prescribed gas/aerosol concentrations, respectively, on climate change.

  15. Biophysical processes leading to the ingress of temperate fish larvae into estuarine nursery areas: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodósio, Maria Alexandra; Paris, Claire B.; Wolanski, Eric; Morais, Pedro

    2016-12-01

    A series of complementary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the recruitment of marine and temperate pelagic fish larvae originated from pelagic eggs in coastal environments. In this review, we propose a new and complementary hypothesis describing the biophysical processes intervening in the recruitment of temperate fish larvae into estuaries. This new hypothesis, the Sense Acuity And Behavioral (SAAB) hypothesis, recognizes that recruitment is unlikely if the larvae drift passively with the water currents, and that successful recruitment requires the sense acuity of temperate fish larvae and their behavioral response to the estuarine cues present in coastal areas. We propose that temperate fish larvae use a hierarchy of sensory cues (odor, sound, visual and geomagnetic cues) to detect estuarine nursery areas and to aid during navigation towards these areas. The sensorial acuity increases along ontogeny, which coincides with increased swimming capabilities. The swimming strategies of post-flexion larvae differ from offshore areas to the tidal zone. In offshore areas, innate behavior might lead larvae towards the coast guided by a sun compass or by the earth's geomagnetic field. In areas under limited influence of estuarine plumes (either in energetic nearshore areas or offshore), post-flexion larvae display a searching swimming behavior for estuarine disconnected patches (infotaxis strategy). After finding an estuarine plume, larvae may swim along the increasing cue concentration to ingress into the estuary. Here, larvae exhibit a rheotaxis behavior and avoid displacement by longshore currents by keeping bearing during navigation. When larvae reach the vicinity of an estuary, merging diel rhythms with feeding and predator avoidance strategies with tidally induced movements is essential to increase their chances of estuarine ingress. A fish larva recruitment model developed for the Ria Formosa lagoon supports the general framework of the SAAB hypothesis. In

  16. Hydrogen Ingress in Steels During High-Temperature Oxidation in Water Vapor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brady, Michael P [ORNL; Fayek, Mostafa [ORNL; Keiser, James R [ORNL; Meyer III, Harry M [ORNL; More, Karren Leslie [ORNL; Anovitz, Lawrence {Larry} M [ORNL; Wesolowski, David J [ORNL; Cole, David R [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    It is well established that hydrogen derived from water vapour can penetrate oxidizing alloys with detrimental effect. However, the complexities of tracking hydrogen in these materials have prevented the direct profiling of hydrogen ingress needed to understand these phenomena. Here we report hydrogen profiles in industrially-relevant alumina- and chromia- forming steels correlated with the local oxide-metal nano/microstructure by use of SIMS D2O tracer studies and experimental protocols to optimize D retention. The D profiles unexpectedly varied markedly among the alloys examined, which indicates mechanistic complexity but also the potential to mitigate detrimental water vapour effects by manipulation of alloy chemistry.

  17. Do predator-prey relationships on the river bed affect fine sediment ingress?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathers, Kate; Rice, Stephen; Wood, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Ecosystem engineers are organisms that alter their physical environment and thereby influence the flow of resources through ecosystems. In rivers, several ecosystem engineers are also important geomorphological agents that modify fluvial sediment dynamics. By altering channel morphology and bed material characteristics, such modifications can affect the availability of habitats for other organisms, with implications for ecosystem health and wider community composition. In this way geomorphological and ecological systems are intimately interconnected. This paper focuses on one element of this intricate abiotic-biotic coupling: the interaction between fine sediment ingress into the river bed and the predator-prey relationships of aquatic organisms living on and in the river bed. Signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) have been shown to modify fine sediment fluxes in rivers, but their effect on fine sediment ingress into riverbeds remains unclear. Many macroinvertebrate taxa have adapted avoidance strategies to avoid predation by crayfish, with one example being the freshwater shrimp (Gammarus pulex) which relies on open interstitial spaces within subsurface sediments as a refuge from crayfish predation. Fine sedimentation that fills gravelly frameworks may preclude access to those spaces, therefore leaving freshwater shrimp susceptible to predation. Ex-situ experiments were conducted which sought to examine: i) if freshwater shrimps and signal crayfish, alone and in combination, influenced fine sediment infiltration rates; and ii) whether modifications to substratum composition, specifically the introduction of fine sediment, modified predator-prey interactions. The results demonstrate that crayfish are significant geomorphic agents and that fine sediment ingress rates were significantly enhanced in their presence compared to control conditions or the presence of only freshwater shrimps. The combination of both organisms (i.e. allowing the interaction between

  18. Evaluation of ATP measurements to detect microbial ingress by wastewater and surface water in drinking water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vang, Óluva Karin; Corfitzen, Charlotte B.; Smith, Christian

    2014-01-01

    in this respect. Compared to traditional microbiological methods, the ATP assay could detect wastewater and surface water in drinking water to a higher degree than total direct counts (TDCs), while both heterotrophic plate counts (HPC 22 °C and HPC 37 °C) and Colilert-18 (Escherichia coli and coliforms) were more......Fast and reliable methods are required for monitoring of microbial drinking water quality in order to protect public health. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was investigated as a potential real-time parameter for detecting microbial ingress in drinking water contaminated with wastewater or surface...

  19. The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winn, Joshua N.; Howard, Andrew W.; Johnson, John A.; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Gazak, J. Zachary; Starkey, Donn; Ford, Eric B.; Colon, Knicole D.; Reyes, Francisco; Nortmann, Lisa; Dreizler, Stefan; Odewahn, Stephen; Welsh, William F.; Kadakia, Shimonee; Vanderbei, Robert J.; Adams, Elisabeth R.; Lockhart, Matthew; Crossfield, Ian J.; Valenti, Jeff A.; Dantowitz, Ronald; Carter, Joshua A.

    2009-01-01

    We reported the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 plus or minus 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibited an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. Thus, the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism.

  20. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apte, Michael G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dutton, Spencer M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berkeley, Pam M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Spears, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  1. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  2. Perfluorocarbon Tracer Experiments on a 2 km Scale in Manchester Showing Ingress of Pollutants into a Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, James; Wright, Matthew; Bacak, Asan; Silva, Hugo; Priestley, Michael; Martin, Damien; Percival, Carl; Shallcross, Dudley

    2016-04-01

    Cyclic perfluorocarbons (PFCs) have been used to measure the passage of air in urban and rural settings as they are chemically inert, non-toxic and have low background concentrations. The use of pre-concentrators and chemical ionisation gas chromatography enables concentrations of a few parts per quadrillion (ppq) to be measured in bag samples. Three PFC tracers were used in Manchester, UK in the summer of 2015 to map airflow in the city and ingress into buildings: perfluomethylcyclohexane (PMCH), perfluoro-2-4-dimethylcyclohexane (mPDMCH) and perfluoro-2-methyl-3-ethylpentene (PMEP). A known quantity of each PFC was released for 15 minutes from steel canisters using pre-prepared PFC mixtures. Release points were chosen to be upwind of the central sampling location (Simon Building, University of Manchester) and varied in distance up to 2.2 km. Six releases using one or three tracers in different configurations and under different conditions were undertaken in the summer. Three further experiments were conducted in the Autumn, to more closely investigate the rate of ingress and decay of tracer indoors. In each experiment, 10 litre samples were made over 30 minutes into Tedlar bags, starting at the same time the as PFC release. Samples were taken in 11 locations chosen from 15 identified areas including three in public parks, three outside within the University of Manchester area, seven inside and five outside of the Simon building and two outside a building nearby. For building measurements, receptors were placed inside the buildings on different floors; outside measurements were achieved through a sample line out of the window. Three of the sample positions inside the Simon building were paired with samplers outside to allow indoor-outdoor comparisons. PFC concentrations varied depending on location and height. The highest measured concentrations occurred when the tracer was released at sunrise; up to 330 ppq above background (11 ppq) of PMCH was measured at the 6

  3. VERIFICATION OF SURFACE LAYER OZONE FORECASTS IN THE NOAA/EPA AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM IN DIFFERENT REGIONS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is ...

  4. Temporal trend in the intensity of subsurface saltwater ingressions to coastal Lake Sarbsko (northern Poland) during the last few decades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woszczyk, Michal; Lutynska, M [Department of Quaternary Geology and Paleogeography, Adam Mickiewicz University, Dziegielowa 27, 61-680 Poznan (Poland); Spychalski, W [Department of Soil Science, Poznan Uniwersity of Life Sciences, Szydlowska 50, 60-656 Poznan (Poland); Cieslinski, R, E-mail: woszczyk@amu.edu.p [Department of Hydrology, University of Gdansk, Dmowskiego 16a, 80-952 Gdansk (Poland)

    2010-03-15

    The present paper provides evidence of the increasing intensity of subsurface saltwater ingressions (SSI) to coastal Lake Sarbsko (northern Poland) during the last few decades. Saltwater ingressions to the lake were recognized by spatial and seasonal changes in the concentrations of chlorides in pore waters from the lake surface sediments. Temporal trends in SSI were reconstructed based on diatom proxies from a lake sediment core located within the range of saltwater ingressions. The data showed that subsurface saltwater input to Lake Sarbsko occurs during severe winter storms on the Baltic Sea, when saltwater is pumped to the lake from under the barrier separating the lake from the sea. Due to accelerated sea level rise, increased frequency of storms and lack of ice cover on the Baltic since at least the mid 20th century, saline groundwater supply to the lake has distinctly increased.

  5. Defending of IP Spoofing by Ingress Filter in Extended-Inter Domain Packet Key Marking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Velmayil

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The significance of the DDoS problem and the increased occurrence and strength of attacks has led to the dawn of numerous prevention mechanisms. IP spoofing is most frequently used in denial-of-service attacks. In such attacks, the goal is to flood the victim with overwhelming amounts of traffic, and the attacker does not care about receiving responses to the attack packets. IP spoofing is one of the basic weaknesses in the Internet Protocol to launch the DDOS attack. Each prevention mechanism has some unique advantages and disadvantages over the others. The existing methods become ineffective due to a large number of filters required and they lack in information about where to place the filter. We propose Ingress filter in Extended Inter Domain Packet Key marking system .This paper comprises of two functional blocks namely, Key marking system and filtering blocks. In the marking block, each source is labeled with a key. The key is changed continuously for a certain period of time to provide secured system and is validated at border routers. In the filtering block, spoofed packets are filtered at the border router using Ingress filter to filter beyond periphery routers. The filter placement algorithm clearly put forwards the conditions under which the filter can operate accurately. The accuracy of the proposed systems is validated using Network Simulator (NS-2.

  6. Experimental and modeling study of chloride ingress into concrete and reinforcement corrosion initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui

    Effects of reinforcement and coarse aggregate on chloride ingression into concrete and reinforcement corrosion initiation have been studied with experimental and modeling (finite element method) analyses. Once specimens were fabricated and exposed to a chloride solution, various experimental techniques were employed to determine the effect of reinforcement and coarse aggregate on time-to-corrosion and chloride ingress and concentration at corrosion locations. Model analyses were performed to verify and explain the experimental results. Based upon the results, it was determined that unexpectedly higher chloride concentrations were present on the top of the rebar trace than that to the side at the same depth and an inverse concentration gradient (increasing [ Cl-] with increasing depth) occurred near the top of rebars. Also, coarse aggregate volume profile in close proximity to the rebar and spatial distribution of these aggregates, in conjunction with the physical obstruction afforded by reinforcement to chloride flow, complicates concrete sampling for Cl- intended to define the critical concentration of this species to initiate corrosion. Modeling analyses that considered cover thickness, chloride threshold concentration, reinforcement size and shape, and coarse aggregate type and percolation confirmed the experimental findings. The results, at least in part, account for the relatively wide spread in chloride corrosion threshold values reported in the literature and illustrate that more consistent chloride threshold concentrations can be acquired from mortar or paste specimens than from concrete ones.

  7. Ingression Progression Complexes Control Extracellular Matrix Remodelling during Cytokinesis in Budding Yeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foltman, Magdalena; Molist, Iago; Arcones, Irene; Sacristan, Carlos; Filali-Mouncef, Yasmina; Roncero, Cesar; Sanchez-Diaz, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Eukaryotic cells must coordinate contraction of the actomyosin ring at the division site together with ingression of the plasma membrane and remodelling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) to support cytokinesis, but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood. In eukaryotes, glycosyltransferases that synthesise ECM polysaccharides are emerging as key factors during cytokinesis. The budding yeast chitin synthase Chs2 makes the primary septum, a special layer of the ECM, which is an essential process during cell division. Here we isolated a group of actomyosin ring components that form complexes together with Chs2 at the cleavage site at the end of the cell cycle, which we named ‘ingression progression complexes’ (IPCs). In addition to type II myosin, the IQGAP protein Iqg1 and Chs2, IPCs contain the F-BAR protein Hof1, and the cytokinesis regulators Inn1 and Cyk3. We describe the molecular mechanism by which chitin synthase is activated by direct association of the C2 domain of Inn1, and the transglutaminase-like domain of Cyk3, with the catalytic domain of Chs2. We used an experimental system to find a previously unanticipated role for the C-terminus of Inn1 in preventing the untimely activation of Chs2 at the cleavage site until Cyk3 releases the block on Chs2 activity during late mitosis. These findings support a model for the co-ordinated regulation of cell division in budding yeast, in which IPCs play a central role. PMID:26891268

  8. Ingression Progression Complexes Control Extracellular Matrix Remodelling during Cytokinesis in Budding Yeast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Foltman

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Eukaryotic cells must coordinate contraction of the actomyosin ring at the division site together with ingression of the plasma membrane and remodelling of the extracellular matrix (ECM to support cytokinesis, but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood. In eukaryotes, glycosyltransferases that synthesise ECM polysaccharides are emerging as key factors during cytokinesis. The budding yeast chitin synthase Chs2 makes the primary septum, a special layer of the ECM, which is an essential process during cell division. Here we isolated a group of actomyosin ring components that form complexes together with Chs2 at the cleavage site at the end of the cell cycle, which we named 'ingression progression complexes' (IPCs. In addition to type II myosin, the IQGAP protein Iqg1 and Chs2, IPCs contain the F-BAR protein Hof1, and the cytokinesis regulators Inn1 and Cyk3. We describe the molecular mechanism by which chitin synthase is activated by direct association of the C2 domain of Inn1, and the transglutaminase-like domain of Cyk3, with the catalytic domain of Chs2. We used an experimental system to find a previously unanticipated role for the C-terminus of Inn1 in preventing the untimely activation of Chs2 at the cleavage site until Cyk3 releases the block on Chs2 activity during late mitosis. These findings support a model for the co-ordinated regulation of cell division in budding yeast, in which IPCs play a central role.

  9. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  10. [Quali-quantitative study of the social variables defining transmission scenarios of Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, 2001-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrangelo, Andrea; Tagliabue, Paula; Berro, Lorena; De Carolis, Darío; Sinchi, Anabel; Digilio, Clara; Enria, Delia

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this paper was to characterize transmission scenarios of Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever in the post-vaccination period (2001-2010). The study was made up of three phases. The first consisted of a quantitative analysis using the database of the Dr. Julio I. Maiztegui National Institute of Human Viral Diseases [Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas] regarding the confirmed cases in the period of study (221 cases). Taking into account the transmission site and the known endemic area, cases were grouped into three hypothetical transmission scenarios, identified as: a) classical, b) emerging-reemerging, c) traveling. In the second phase, in order to test these hypotheses, in-depth interviews were carried out from August to September 2011 within an intentionally selected sample of patients distributed proportionally among the three hypotheses. Finally, in the third stage, the data obtained for each hypothetical scenario were grouped into three spatiotemporal scales: the microscale (subject), the mesoscale (locality) and macroscale (region). The results show that new transmission sites are associated with the social dynamics of cereal production and port-bound routes.

  11. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  12. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  13. Sea-level rise and potential drowning of the Italian coastal plains: Flooding risk scenarios for 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonioli, F.; Anzidei, M.; Amorosi, A.; Lo Presti, V.; Mastronuzzi, G.; Deiana, G.; De Falco, G.; Fontana, A.; Fontolan, G.; Lisco, S.; Marsico, A.; Moretti, M.; Orrù, P. E.; Sannino, G. M.; Serpelloni, E.; Vecchio, A.

    2017-02-01

    We depict the relative sea-level rise scenarios for the year 2100 from four areas of the Italian peninsula. Our estimates are based on the Rahmstorf (2007) and IPCC-AR5 reports 2013 for the RCP-8.5 scenarios (http://www.ipcc.ch) The subsequent loss of land will impact the environment and local infrastructures, suggesting land planners and decision makers to take into account these scenarios for a cognizant coastal management. Our method developed for the Italian coast can be applied worldwide in other coastal areas expected to be affected by marine ingression due to global climate change.

  14. Effects of molecular architecture on fluid ingress behavior of glassy polymer networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskson, Matthew Blaine

    This manuscript demonstrates the synthesis of glassy polymer network isomers to control morphological variations and study solvent ingress behavior independent of chemical affinity. Well-controlled network architectures with varying free volume average hole-sizes have been shown to substantially influence solvent ingress within glassy polymer networks. Bisphenol-A diglycidyl ether (DGEBA), bisphenol-F diglycidyl ether (DGEBF), Triglycidyl p-aminophenol (pAP, MY0510), Triglycidyl maminophenol (mAP, MY0610), and tetraglydicyl-4,4'-diamino-diphenyl methane (TGDDM, MY721) were cured with 3,3'- and 4,4'-diaminodiphenyl sulfone (DDS) at a stoichiometric ratio of 1:1 oxirane to amine active hydrogen to generate a series of network architectures with an average free volume hole-size (Vh) ranging between 54-82 A3. Polymer networks were exposed to water and a broad range of organic solvents ranging in van der Waals (vdW) volumes from 18-88 A3 for up to 10,000h time. A clear relationship between glassy polymer network Vh and fluid penetration has been established. As penetrant vdW volume approached Vh, uptake kinetics significantly decreased, and as penetrant vdW volume exceeded Vh, a blocking mechanism dominated ingress and prevented penetrant transport. These results suggest that reducing the free volume hole-size is a reasonable approach to control solvent properties for glassy polymer networks. New techniques to monitor and predict the diffusion behavior of liquids through glassy networks are also presented. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was employed to accurately measure the strain developed during case II diffusion. This technique also presented a new theory for a relationship between sample topology and irreversible macroscopic brittle failure induced by solvent absorption. A new modeling technique has been developed which can accurately predict the chemical and physical interactions a solvent may have with a glassy network. This new model can be used as a

  15. 36 CFR 14.5 - Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress. 14.5 Section 14.5 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR RIGHTS-OF-WAY Nature of Interest § 14.5...

  16. A combined experimental and theoretical study on the side ingress of water into barrier adhesives for organic electronics applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michels, J.J.; Peter, M.; Salem, A.; Remoortere, B. van; Brand, J. van den

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a thorough experimental and theoretical analysis of a model system for the mechanism of cathode degradation in OLED and OPV devices due to lateral side ingress of water vapour into laminated thin film barrier structures. The experimental procedure allows for full quantitative con

  17. Chloride Ingress in Concrete with Different Age at Time of First Chloride Exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Esben Østergaard; Iskau, Martin Riis; Hasholt, Marianne Tange

    2016-01-01

    Concrete structures cast in spring have longer time to hydrate and are therefore denser and more resistant to chloride ingress when first subjected to deicing salts in winter than structures cast in autumn. Consequently, it is expected that a spring casting will have a longer service life....... This hypothesis is investigated in the present study by testing drilled cores from concrete cast in 2012 and 2013 on the Svendborgsund Bridge. The cores are subject to petrographic examination and mapping of chloride profiles. Moreover, chloride migration coefficients have been measured. The study shows...... that the effect of the extra time of hydration obtained when casting in spring increases the expected service life of the concrete structure significantly....

  18. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  19. Estimation of air to grass -dry and wet deposition rates, velocities, and mass interception factors for iodine for a postulated accidental scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karunakara, N.; Ujwal, P.; Yashodhara, I.; Sudeep Kumara, K. [University Science Instrumentation Centre, Mangalore University (India); Geetha, P.V. [Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (India); Dileep, B.N.; Joshi, P.J. [Environmental Survey Laboratory, Kaiga Generating Station (India); Ravi, P.M. [Health Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (India)

    2014-07-01

    Air to grass radionuclide transfer parameters such as dry and wet deposition rates, velocities, and mass interception factors are important basic input parameters for the estimation of radiation dose to the public around a nuclear power plant. We have carried out a study on air to grass transfer of iodine for a postulated emergency situation. A walk-in environmental chamber was designed and fabricated with facilities for exposing the plants grown in pots to controlled levels of radionuclides/stable elements. The temperature, humidity, and airflow inside the environmental chamber can be controlled to required values. The chamber has the facility for generating artificial rainfall. Grass grown in pots was kept inside the environmental chamber. Stable iodine (elemental form) was sublimed and injected into the environmental chamber suddenly to generate known concentration of iodine in the air inside the chamber. This simulated an accidental release of iodine to the environment. The concentration of iodine in the air inside the chamber was monitored continuously by drawing air from the environmental chamber through a bubbling setup (bubbling air through 1% sodium carbonate solution) and the iodine was then separated chemically and the concentration was measured by UV-VIS spectrometry. The concentration of iodine inside the chamber was monitored for every 30 min. The grass was exposed to iodine for 3 h after which the leaves were sampled and analysed for iodine concentration. From the concentration values of iodine in air and grass - the dry deposition rate, deposition velocity, and mass interception rates were estimated. The dry deposition velocity of iodine varied in the range of 0.5x10{sup -5}-3.3x10{sup -5} m s{sup -1} with a mean value of 1.7x10{sup -5} m s{sup -1}. The mass interception factor varied in the range of 0.25-13 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} with a mean value of 4.2 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} with respect to fresh weight. The wet deposition velocity varied in the range

  20. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    KAUST Repository

    Parker, Simon

    2013-08-13

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time series in different internal locations. A state-space approach is adopted to represent the concentration dynamics within multizone buildings. Analysis based on this approach is used to demonstrate that the exposure in every interior location is limited to the exterior exposure in the absence of removal mechanisms. Estimates are also developed for the short term maximum concentration and exposure in a multizone building in response to a step-change in concentration. These have considerable potential for practical use. The analytical development is demonstrated using a simple two-zone building with an inner zone and a range of existing multizone models of residential buildings. Quantitative measures are provided of the standard deviation of concentration and exposure within a range of residential multizone buildings. Ratios of the maximum short term concentrations and exposures to single zone building estimates are also provided for the same buildings. © 2013 Tsinghua University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  1. The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

    CERN Document Server

    Winn, Joshua N; Johnson, John Asher; Marcy, Geoffrey W; Gazak, J Zachary; Starkey, Donn; Ford, Eric B; Colon, Knicole D; Reyes, Francisco; Nortmann, Lisa; Dreizler, Stefan; Odewahn, Stephen; Welsh, William F; Kadakia, Shimonee; Vanderbei, Robert J; Adams, Elisabeth R; Lockhart, Matthew; Crossfield, Ian J; Valenti, Jeff A; Dantowitz, Ronald; Carter, Joshua A

    2009-01-01

    We present the results of a pan-American campaign to observe the 2009 June 5 transit of the exoplanet HD 80606b. We report the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 +/- 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibit an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. The Keck data show that the projected spin-orbit angle is between 32-87 deg with 68.3% confidence and between 14-142 deg with 99.73% confidence. Thus the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric (e=0.93), but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism. Independently of the theory, it is noteworthy that all 3 exoplanetary systems with known spin-orbit misalignments have massive planets on eccentric orbits, suggesting ...

  2. Dynamic in vivo mapping of model moisturiser ingress into human skin by GARfield MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampi, Elisabetta; van Ginkel, Michael; McDonald, Peter J; Pitts, Simon; Bonnist, Eleanor Y M; Singleton, Scott; Williamson, Ann-Marie

    2011-02-01

    We describe the development of in vivo one-dimensional MRI (profiling) using a GARField (Gradient At Right angles to Field) magnet for the characterisation of side-of-hand human skin. For the first time and in vivo, we report measurements of the NMR longitudinal and transverse relaxation parameters and self-diffusivity of the upper layers of human skin with a nominal spatial resolution better than 10 µm. The results are correlated with in vivo confocal Raman spectroscopy measurements of water concentration and natural moisturiser factors, and discussed in terms of known skin biology and microstructure of the stratum corneum and viable epidermis. The application of model moisturiser solutions to the skin is followed and their dynamics of ingress are characterised using the MRI methodology developed. Selected hydrophilic and lipophilic formulations are studied. The results are corroborated by standard in vivo measurements of transepidermal water loss and hydration status. A further insight into moisturisation mechanisms is gained. The effect of two different penetration enhancers on a commonly used skin care oil is also discussed, and different timescales of oil penetration into the skin are reported depending on the type of enhancer.

  3. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  4. Decadal application of WRF/Chem for regional air quality and climate modeling over the U.S. under the representative concentration pathways scenarios. Part 1: Model evaluation and impact of downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, Khairunnisa; Wang, Kai; Campbell, Patrick; Chen, Ying; Glotfelty, Timothy; He, Jian; Pirhalla, Michael; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    An advanced online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model, i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), is applied for current (2001-2010) and future (2046-2055) decades under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios to examine changes in future climate, air quality, and their interactions. In this Part I paper, a comprehensive model evaluation is carried out for current decade to assess the performance of WRF/Chem and WRF under both scenarios and the benefits of downscaling the North Carolina State University's (NCSU) version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM_NCSU) using WRF/Chem. The evaluation of WRF/Chem shows an overall good performance for most meteorological and chemical variables on a decadal scale. Temperature at 2-m is overpredicted by WRF (by ∼0.2-0.3 °C) but underpredicted by WRF/Chem (by ∼0.3-0.4 °C), due to higher radiation from WRF. Both WRF and WRF/Chem show large overpredictions for precipitation, indicating limitations in their microphysics or convective parameterizations. WRF/Chem with prognostic chemical concentrations, however, performs much better than WRF with prescribed chemical concentrations for radiation variables, illustrating the benefit of predicting gases and aerosols and representing their feedbacks into meteorology in WRF/Chem. WRF/Chem performs much better than CESM_NCSU for most surface meteorological variables and O3 hourly mixing ratios. In addition, WRF/Chem better captures observed temporal and spatial variations than CESM_NCSU. CESM_NCSU performance for radiation variables is comparable to or better than WRF/Chem performance because of the model tuning in CESM_NCSU that is routinely made in global models.

  5. Thermal hydraulic characteristics during ingress of coolant and loss of vacuum events in fusion reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, K.; Kunugi, T.; Seki, Y.; Akimoto, H.

    2000-03-01

    The thermal hydraulic characteristics in the vacuum vessel (VV) of a fusion reactor under an ingress of coolant event (ICE) and a loss of vacuum event (LOVA) were investigated quantitatively using preliminary experimental apparatuses. In the ICE experiments, pressure rise characteristics in the VV were clarified for experimental parameters of the wall temperature and water temperature and for cases with and without a blowdown tank. In addition, the functional performance of a blowdown tank with and without a water cooling system was examined and it was confirmed that the blowdown tank with a water cooling system is effective for suppressing the pressure rise during the ICE. In the LOVA experiments, the saturation time in the VV from vacuum to atmosphere was investigated for various breach sizes and it was found that the saturation time is in inverse proportion to the breach size. In addition, the characteristics of exchange flow through breaches were clarified for the different breach positions on the VV. It was proven from the experimental results that the exchange flow became a counter-current flow when the breach was positioned on the top of the VV and a stratified flow when it was formed on the side wall of the VV, and that the exchange flow under the stratified flow condition was smoother than that of counter-current flow. On the basis of these results, the severest breach condition in ITER was changed from the top-break case to the side-break case. To predict with high accuracy the thermal hydraulic characteristics during ICEs and LOVAs under ITER conditions, a large scale test facility will be necessary. The current conceptual design of the combined ICE-LOVA test facility with a scaling factor of 1/1000 in comparison with the ITER volume is presented.

  6. Towards a new scenary for research assessment: the institutional repository (AIR of Milan University Verso un nuovo scenario per la valutazione della ricerca: l'Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR dell'Università di Milano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Galimberti

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to report about the unconventional use of an institutional repository, that has been used as data source to assess the scientific production and productivity within the Departments of the Faculty of Letters at the University of Milan.The analysis of the results of the pilot shows that the archive and the data manager are a valid instrument to aggregate and analyze large quantities of bibliographic metadata, so the pilot can be extended to the whole university.A comparison with other universities is difficult since the use of institutional respositories is not so widespread, and there is no security on the coverage and the comprehensiveness of the data inside them. To conclude, there is a strong necessity to widen the presence and the usage of institutional repositories, according to the Recommendations of the Conference of the Rectors of Italian Universities (CRUI, and to update methodologies and processes of evaluation considering new models of production, fruition, and dissemination of scientific outputs. Moreover, the open access approach not only widens the potentialities of an easier access to information, but modifies the fruition of the information itself.The evaluative scenario must adapt to the new circumstances, as well as web circulation of the information has modified the measurability of contents with respect to the results in the publications themselves.Il presente lavoro esamina l'esperienza dell'utilizzo dell'archivio istituzionale dell'Università degli Studi di Milano come fonte di informazione per la valutazione interna dei prodotti della ricerca dei Dipartimenti della Facoltà di Lettere e Filosofia.  Attraverso l'analisi dei risultati dell'esercizio pilota, l'archivio e il sistema di elaborazione di dati in esso contenuti si sono rivelati un ottimo strumento per l'aggregazione e l'analisi di grandi quantità di metadati bibliografici qualitativamente affidabili e utilizzabili per esercizi di

  7. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  8. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  9. Chloride ingress in concrete as measured by field exposure tests in the atmospheric, tidal and submerged zones of a tropical marine environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, S.K. (National Univ. of Singapore (Singapore). School of Building and Estate Management); Chye, Liam Kok (Matcor Technology and Services (Singapore)); Northwood, D.O. (National Univ. of Singapore (Singapore). Dept. of Mechanical and Production Engineering Univ. of Windsor, Ontario (Canada). Engineering Materials Group)

    1993-11-01

    Five grades of concrete were exposed in the atmosphere, tidal and submerged zones of a tropical marine environment for times up to 80 weeks and the chloride ion ingress profiles determined. The measured chloride profiles were compared with profiles calculated on the basis of diffusion theory and the agreement was found to be reasonably good for all 3 zones. Diffusion coefficients, D, for the chloride ion calculated from the measured ingress profiles agreed well with previous data from laboratory tests and from surveys of marine structures. D was found to be mainly dependent on the water/cement (W/C) ratio and changed little with the addition of superplasticizers. The use of data for the diffusion coefficient, D, and equilibrium surface chloride level, Ce, obtained from the chloride ingress profiles, to the calculation of the time-to-initiation for corrosion of the steel reinforcement is briefly discussed.

  10. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  11. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  12. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  13. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  14. Future surface air temperature changes in China under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios%不同温室气体排放情景下未来中国地面气温变化特征

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫冠华; 李巧萍; 邢超

    2011-01-01

    采用20多个参与政府间气候变化委员会第4次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的全球气候模式,在20世纪气候模拟试验和SRES B1、A1B和A2 3种排放情景下进行数值集合分析,结果表明未来中国大陆的气温变化有着明显的时间和空间差异.21世纪,中国大陆年平均气温呈显著升高趋势,至2099年平均增温范围为2.5~4.9℃,高于全球平均值.冬季升温明显高于其他季节,年较差呈减小趋势.21世纪前期,变暖预估值受排放情景假设或模式敏感性的影响较小,不同排放情景和不同模式之间的预估结果一致,中国大陆平均增温范围为0.88~0.92 ℃,21世纪中期以后这种差异逐渐增大,增暖范围为2.44~4.28 ℃.相对于1980-1999年平均气候场,中国大陆平均升温值在20世纪50年代前后达到2 ℃,此后,A1B及A2情景下中国大陆气温快速升高,在21世纪60年代末达到或超过3 °,但区域差异明显,升温值达2 ℃的时间由北至南在不同排放情景下相差10~30 a,东北、西北地区将成为未来受气温升高影响最为敏感的地区.%Based on IPCC AR4 outputs simulated by multi-model for 20th century and future projection under SRES B1 ,A1B and A2 green emission scenarios, the surface air temperature changes in the 21st century are analyzed. It is revealed that the surface temperature presents different spatial and temporal features over China. Annual mean temperature will rise by 2.5-4.9 ℃ at the end of the 21st century under 3 Scenarios,and the enhancement magnitude is larger than global mean. In addition, the warming magnitude in winter will be larger than in the other seasons, the annual range of temperature is expected to decrease in the future. The projection results are consistent between the different emission scenarios and models in the first half of the 21st century, with the warming magnitude being 0.88-0.92 ℃. However,the projected temperature becomes more sensitive to the scenarios and

  15. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy option...

  16. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  17. Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-6 test data report : thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-06-28

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure? (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx} {phi} 30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength is being addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus measures the fracture strength of the crust while it is either at room temperature or above, the latter state being achieved with a heating element placed below the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the sixth water ingression test, designated SSWICS-6. This test

  18. Use of a multi-species reactive transport model to simulate chloride ingress in mortar exposed to NaCl solution or sea-water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Mønster; De Weerdt, K.; Johannesson, Björn;

    2015-01-01

    Simulations of ion ingress in Portland cement mortar using a multi-species reactive mass transport model are compared with experimental test results. The model is an extended version of the Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations, accounting for chemical equilibrium. Saturated mortar samples were exposed...

  19. Autonomous urban reconnaissance ingress system (AURIS): providing a tactically relevant autonomous door-opening kit for unmanned ground vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shane, David J.; Rufo, Michael A.; Berkemeier, Matthew D.; Alberts, Joel A.

    2012-06-01

    The Autonomous Urban Reconnaissance Ingress System (AURIS™) addresses a significant limitation of current military and first responder robotics technology: the inability of reconnaissance robots to open doors. Leveraging user testing as a baseline, the program has derived specifications necessary for military personnel to open doors with fielded UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles), and evaluates the technology's impact on operational mission areas: duration, timing, and user patience in developing a tactically relevant, safe, and effective system. Funding is provided through the US ARMY Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) and the project represents a leap forward in perception, autonomy, robotic implements, and coordinated payload operation in UGVs. This paper describes high level details of specification generation, status of the last phase of development, an advanced view of the system autonomy capability, and a short look ahead towards the ongoing work on this compelling and important technology.

  20. Stochastic Simulation of Chloride Ingress into Reinforced Concrete Structures by Means of Multi-Dimensional Gaussian Random Fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, Christian; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2005-01-01

    around the reinforcement exceeds a critical threshold value. In the present paper FERM (the Finite Element Reliability Method) is employed for obtaining the probability of exceeding a critical chloride concentration level at the reinforcement bars using MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation). The chloride ingress...... is modeled by a 2-dimensional diffusion process by FEM (Finite Element Method) and the diffusion coefficient, surface chloride concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by multidimensional stochastic fields, which are discretized using the EOLE (Expansion Optimum Linear Estimation) approach......For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of the reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in expensive maintenance and repair actions. Further, a significant reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. One mode of corrosion initiation occurs when the chloride content...

  1. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  2. Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System for Air Quality Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    CMAQ simultaneously models multiple air pollutants including ozone, particulate matter and a variety of air toxics to help air quality managers determine the best air quality management scenarios for their communities, regions and states.

  3. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  4. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  5. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  6. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  7. A novel isolation curtain to reduce turbine ingress heating and an advanced model for honeycomb labyrinth seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Dong Chun

    A combination of 3-D and 2-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling as well as experimental testing of the labyrinth seal with hexagonal honeycomb cells on the stator wall was performed. For the 3-D and 2-D CFD models, the hexagonal honeycomb structure was modeled using the concept of the baffle (zero-thickness wall) and the simplified 2-D fin, respectively. The 3-D model showed that even a small axial change of the tooth (or honeycomb wall) location, or a small circumferential change of the honeycomb wall location significantly affected the flow patterns and leakage characteristics especially for small tooth tip clearance. Also, the local details of the flow field were investigated. The seven basic procedural steps to develop a 2-D axisymmetric honeycomb labyrinth seal leakage model were shown. Clearly demonstrated for varying test conditions was the 2-D model capability to predict the 3-D honeycomb labyrinth flow that had been measured at different operating conditions from that used in developing the 2-D model. Specifically, the 2-D model showed very close agreement with measurements. In addition, the 2-D model greatly reduced the computer resource requirement needed to obtain a solution of the 3-D honeycomb labyrinth seal leakage. The novel and advanced strategy to reduce the turbine ingress heating, and thus the coolant requirement, by injecting a "coolant isolation curtain" was developed numerically using a 3-D CFD model. The coolant isolation curtain was applied under the nozzle guide vane platform for the forward cavity of a turbine stage. Specifically, the isolation curtain serves to isolate the hot mainstream gas from the turbine outer region. The effect of the geometry change, the outer cavity axial gap clearance, the circumferential location of the injection curtain slot and the injection fluid angle on the ingress heating was investigated. Adding the chamfer to the baseline design gave a similar or higher maximum temperature T*max than did the

  8. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) design report, Rev. 2 October 31, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, M.; Lomperski, S.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.; Pfeiffer, P. (Nuclear Engineering Division); (NRC)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are planned to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. A description of the test apparatus, instrumentation, data reduction, and test matrix are the subject of the first portion of this report. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The introduction of a thermal gradient across the crust is thought to be important for these tests because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the thermal stresses and thus their

  9. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  10. Air passivation of metal hydride beds for waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, J. E.; Hsu, R. H. [Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC 29808 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    One waste acceptance criteria for hydride bed waste disposal is that the bed be non-pyrophoric. Batch-wise air ingress tests were performed which determined the amount of air consumed by a metal hydride bed. A desorbed, 4.4 kg titanium prototype hydride storage vessel (HSV) produced a 4.4 deg.C internal temperature rise upon the first air exposure cycle and a 0.1 deg.C temperature rise upon a second air exposure. A total of 346 sec air was consumed by the bed (0.08 sec per gram Ti). A desorbed, 9.66 kg LaNi{sub 4.25}Al{sub 0.75} prototype storage bed experienced larger temperature rises over successive cycles of air ingress and evacuation. The cycles were performed over a period of days with the bed effectively passivated after the 12. cycle. Nine to ten STP-L of air reacted with the bed producing both oxidized metal and water. (authors)

  11. An Accelerated Test Method of Simultaneous Carbonation and Chloride Ion Ingress: Durability of Silica Fume Concrete in Severe Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Ghahari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack on mechanical characteristics and durability of concrete containing silica fume have been investigated through an accelerated test method. Specimens containing different amounts of silica fume were maintained in an apparatus in which carbon dioxide pressure and concentration and relative humidity were kept constant, and wetting and drying cycles in saline water were applied. Surface resistivity, sorptivity, CO2 consumption, and carbonation and chloride ion ingress depths measurements were taken. Phase change due to carbonation and chloride ion attack was monitored by XRD analysis, and microstructures and interfacial transition zones were studied by implementing SEM as well as mercury intrusion porosimetry. It was expected to have a synergistic effect in the tidal zone where simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack happen. However, the observed reduced surface resistivity, compared to specimens maintained in CO2 gas, could be due to the moisture that is available near the surface, hindering CO2 from penetrating into the pores of the specimens. Moreover, the porosity analysis of the specimens showed that the sample containing silica fume cured in the tidal zone had 50.1% less total porosity than the plain cement paste cured in the same condition.

  12. ‹Portale›, die zum Nachdenken anregen. Einblicke in eine Interfaceanalyse des Augmented Reality Spiels Ingress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rau

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Augmented Reality Spiele wie ‹Ingress› und ‹PokémonGo› stellen aktuell neue mediale Phänomene dar. Eine zentrale Differenz zu klassischen Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOs ist die Verzahnung von virtuellen und realen Objekten als konstitutive Spielelemente. In Anknüpfung an die Perspektive, digitale Spiele als Kultur- und Bildungsräume zu verstehen, widmet sich der Beitrag der Frage, inwiefern das Ingress-Spielen die Perspektive von Spieler/innen auf den öffentlichen Raum verändern kann. In erster Annäherung an diese Fragestellung wird auf Basis einer Interfaceanalyse gezeigt, wie ‹Portale› – virtueller Repräsentationen realer Objekte im Spiel – potenziell Irritationen und Differenz­erfahrungen ermöglichen. Diese können zum Ausgangspunkt weiterführender Reflexionen werden. Dafür werden exemplarisch ‹Portale› diskutiert, die (1. weiterführende Informationen zu realen Objekte bieten, die (2. Momentaufnahmen nicht mehr existierender kultureller Objekte darstellen und die (3. reale Objekte in ironischer Weise präsentieren.

  13. The Earth: Present Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Nishad Gopal Deshpande

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the present scenario of our motherly loved planet ‘Earth’ is presented. We are living in one of the most developed phases of the Earth’s life cycle. The choices we make today will determine the life on the Earth, tomorrow. Problems that are been created by us and the consequences we are going to face are discussed in length. Some statistical data is provided to get a brief idea. Measure/prevention(s) to combat the upcoming problems have been putforth.

  14. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  15. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  16. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  17. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  18. Realistic Planning Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-07-01

    postulate a particular solution, this is done chiefly to advance the narrative . It is intended that readers also will explore other possible courses of action...attacks on Soviet facilities by Nicaraguan *Contras.’ Aug/Sept: Joint U.S.- Honduran maneuvers on Nicaraguan border. Sept: U.S. naval exercises in...pover into Honduras. The stated goal of this .1 deployment of Air Force tactical units was to defend Honduran territory, and to support the Honduran

  19. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  20. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a di...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI......design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...

  1. National Coal Utilization Assessment. a preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the Midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents an initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for 1975-2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. The following are among the more significant issues identified and evaluated in this study: If environmental and related issues can be resolved, coal will continue to be a major source of energy for the Midwest; existing sulfur emission constraints will increase use of western coal; the resource requirements and environmental impacts of coal utilization will require major significant environmental and economic tradeoffs in site selection; short-term (24-hr) ambient standards for sulfur dioxide will limit the sizes of coal facilities or require advanced control technologies; an impact on public health may result from long-range transport of airborne sulfur emissions from coal facilities in the Midwest; inadequately controlled effluents from coal gasification may cause violations of water-quality standards; the major ecological effects of coal extraction are from pre-mining and post-reclamation land use; and sulfur dioxide is the major potential contributor to effects on vegetation of atmospheric emissions from coal facilities.

  2. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  3. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  4. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  5. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  6. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; He, Jian; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2 (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2 (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3-) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0-42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl-, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4-55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O3 is overpredicted by 38.9-76.0% due to the limitations in the O3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of

  7. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  8. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  9. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  10. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  11. European scenarios for exposure of soil organisms to pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Egsmose, Mark; Gardi, Ciro; Klein, Michael; Vanderborght, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Standardised exposure scenarios play an important role in European pesticide authorisation procedures (a scenario is a combination of climate, weather and crop data to be used in exposure models). The European Food Safety Authority developed such scenarios for the assessment of exposure of soil organisms to pesticides. Scenarios were needed for both the concentration in total soil and for the concentration in the liquid phase. The goal of the exposure assessment is the 90th percentile of the exposure concentration in the area of agricultural use of a pesticide in each of three regulatory European zones (North, Centre and South). A statistical approach was adopted to find scenarios that are consistent with this exposure goal. Scenario development began with the simulation of the concentration distribution in the entire area of use by means of a simple analytical model. In the subsequent two steps, procedures were applied to account for parameter uncertainty and scenario uncertainty (i.e. the likelihood that a scenario that is derived for one pesticide is not conservative enough for another pesticide). In the final step, the six scenarios were selected by defining their average air temperature, soil organic-matter content and their soil textural class. Organic matter of the selected scenarios decreased in the order North-Centre-South. Because organic matter has a different effect on the concentration in total soil than it has on the concentration in the liquid phase, the concentration in total soil decreased in the order North-Centre-South whereas the concentration in the liquid phase decreased in the opposite order. The concentration differences between the three regulatory zones appeared to be no more than a factor of two. These differences were comparatively small in view of the considerable differences in climate and soil properties between the three zones.

  12. OECD MCCI project Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 test data report : thermal hydraulic results. Rev. 0 September 20, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D. J.; Aeschlimann, R. W.; Basu, S. (Nuclear Engineering Division); (NRC)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The report includes a description of the test apparatus, the

  13. OECD MMCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-2 test data report : thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0 September 20, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D. J.; Aeschlimann, R. W.; Basu, S. (Nuclear Engineering Division); (NRC)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the second water ingression test, designated SSWICS-2. The report includes a description of the test apparatus, the

  14. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-3 test data report : thermal Hydraulic results, Rev. 0 February 19, 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the third water ingression test, designated SSWICS-3. This test investigated the quenching behavior of a fully

  15. OECD MMCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 final data report, Rev. 1 February 10, 2003.; Report, Rev. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M. T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B. (Nuclear Engineering Division)

    2011-05-23

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure; and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium ({approx}{phi}30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep

  16. Oxygen Selective Membranes for Li-Air (O2 Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Salomon

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-air (Li-air batteries have a much higher theoretical energy density than conventional lithium batteries and other metal air batteries, so they are being developed for applications that require long life. Water vapor from air must be prevented from corroding the lithium (Li metal negative electrode during discharge under ambient conditions, i.e., in humid air. One method of protecting the Li metal from corrosion is to use an oxygen selective membrane (OSM that allows oxygen into the cell while stopping or slowing the ingress of water vapor. The desired properties and some potential materials for OSMs for Li-air batteries are discussed and the literature is reviewed.

  17. Evaluation of an Army Aviator’s Ability to Conduct Ingress and Egress of the RAH-66 Comanche Crew Station While Wearing the Air Warrior Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-12-01

    vertebrae and tenth thoracic verte- brae locations as well as above the right and left acromion, the clavical, and the suprasternale body landmarks. Four...cm) 81.0 ə 89.1 61 85.6 2 89.9 18 Cervicale Height, Sitting (cm) 56.4 ə 65.0 43 63.9 4 64.7 7 Thigh Clearance (cm) 13.7 2 15.1 25 16.7 47 18.0 96

  18. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  19. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  20. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  1. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  2. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  3. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  4. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  5. Modelling internal air systems in gas turbine engines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J Michael Owen

    2007-01-01

    Rotating-disc systems can be used to model,experimentally and computationally,the flow and heat transfer that occur inside the internal cooling-air systems of gas turbine engines.These rotating-disc systems have been used successfully to simplify and understand some of the complex flows that occur in internal-air systems,and designers have used this insight to improve the cooling effectiveness,thereby increasing the engine efficiency and reducing the emissions.In this review paper,three important cases are considered:hot-gas ingress;the pre-swirl system;and buoyancy-induced flow.Ingress,or ingestion,occurs when hot gas from the mainstream gas path is ingested into the wheel-space between the turbine disc and its adjacent casing.Rim seals are fitted at the periphery of the system,and sealing flow is used to reduce or prevent ingress.However,too much sealing air reduces the engine efficiency,and too little can cause serious overheating,resulting in damage to the turbine rim and blade roots.Although the flow is three-dimensional and unsteady,there are encouraging signs that simple 'orifice models' could be used to estimate the amount of ingress into the wheel-space.In a pre-swirl system,the cooling air for the gas-turbine blades is swirled by stationary nozzles,and the air is delivered to the blades via receiver holes in the rotating turbine disc.Swirling the air reduces its temperature relative to the rotating blades,and the designer needs to calculate the air temperature and pressure drop in the system.The designer also needs to calculate the effect of this swirling flow on the heat transfer from the turbine disc to the air,as this has a significant effect on the temperature distribution and stresses in the disc.Recent experimental and computational studies have given a better understanding of the flow and heat transfer in these systems.Buoyancy-induced flow occurs in the cavity between two co-rotating compressor discs when the temperature of the discs is higher

  6. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  7. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  8. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saddler, H. [Energy Strategies Pty Ltd., Manuka (Australia); Diesendorf, M. [University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Institute of Environmental Studies; Denniss, R. [Parliament House, Canberra (Australia). Office of Senator Bob Brown

    2007-02-15

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a 'fossil-fuel dependent' country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy. (author)

  9. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  10. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  11. 盐渍土环境下氯离子侵入混凝土模型研究%Model of Chlorion Ingress of Concrete from Saline Soil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    乔頔; 夏文俊; 赵阳; 周欣; 徐永福

    2011-01-01

    Chloride ingress of reinforced concrete buried in saline soil will cause corrosion of interior steel and shorten service life. A comprehensive model which takes three mechanisms into account, including diffusion, migration and capillary absorption, was proposed to simulate the chloride transport process in concrete pore solution and predict the service life of reinforcement. The influence of electric field diffusion and capillary suction on chloride transport was analyzed by using finite element method. It is shown that the electric field generated by multi-ion transport will accelerate chloride ingress, and chloride will accumulate in the surface layer of concrete at early stage due to capillary suction. With the proposed model, the influence of cover thickness on service life was given. It is suggested that the thickness of concrete protective cover buried in saline soil in Lianyungang should be at least 50 mm.%氯离子侵入引发钢筋腐蚀,降低了盐渍土环境下钢筋混凝土结构物使用寿命.综合考虑混凝土孔隙溶液中氯离子的扩散、电迁移以及毛细吸附等运移方式,建立盐渍土环境下氯离子侵入混凝土模型,预测结构物寿命.采用有限元方法分析扩散电场、毛细作用对氯离子运移过程的影响.分析表明,多种离子运移产生的电场加速了氯离子的运移过程,且毛细作用在早期会使氯离子在混凝土表层累积.采用氯离子侵入模型,分析了保护层厚度对结构使用寿命的影响,建议连云港盐渍土环境下混凝土保护层厚度应不小于50 mm.

  12. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center; Wyrwa, Artur; Drebszok, Kamila [AGH Univ. of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

    2013-07-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM{sub 2.5} concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM{sub 2.5} concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  13. Climate scenarios for semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A comparison of climate scenarios for the dryland regions, in West Africa from 1990 to 2050

    OpenAIRE

    van den Born GJ; Schaeffer M; Leemans R; NOP

    2001-01-01

    The identification of climate scenarios for dryland areas in Sub-Saharan West Africa is part of a project to assess the impact of climate change on water availability, agriculture and food security in drylands (ICCD-project). The project is financed by Netherlands Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP) and part of theme 'Vulnerability of Natural and Social Systems for Climate'. The report describes the development and description of climate scenarios by ...

  14. Some perspective decisions for the regeneration system equipment of the thermal and nuclear power plants decreasing the probability of water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonov, N. N.; Svyatkin, F. A.; Sintsova, T. G.; Ukhanova, M. G.; Yesin, S. B.; Nikolayenkova, E. K.; Yurchenko, A. Yu.; Grigorieva, E. B.

    2016-03-01

    The regeneration system heaters are one of the sources of possible ingress of the water into the turbine. The water penetrates into the turbine either at the heaters overflow or with the return flow of steam generated when the water being in the heater boils up in the dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit. The return flow of steam and water is dangerous to the turbine blades and can result in the rotor acceleration. The known protective devices used to prevent the overflow of the low-pressure and high-pressure heaters (LPH and HPH), of the horizontal and vertical heaters of heating-system water (HWH and VWH), as well as of the deaerators and low-pressure mixing heaters (LPMH) were considered. The main protective methods of the steam and water return flows supplied by the heaters in dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit are described. Previous operating experience shows that the available protections do not fully prevent water ingress into the turbine and the rotor acceleration and, therefore, the development of measures to decrease the possibility of ingress of the water into the turbine is an actual problem. The measures allowing eliminating or reducing the water mass in the heaters are expounded; some of them were designed by the specialists of OAO Polzunov Scientific and Development Association on Research and Design of Power Equipment (NPO CKTI) and are efficiently introduced at heat power plants and nuclear power plants. The suggested technical solutions allow reducing the possibility of the water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow in the dynamic operation modes or in the case of power generating unit deenergization. Some of these solutions have been tested in experimental-industrial exploitation and can be used in industry.

  15. Marine Ingressive Events Recorded in Epicontinental Sequences:Example from the Cretaceous Songliao Basin of NE China in Comparison with the Triassic Central Europe Basin of SW Germany

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Pujun; LIU Wanzhu; YIN Xiuzhen; SCHNEIDER Werner; MATTERN Frank

    2002-01-01

    Songliao Basin is filled predominantly with continental facies sediments including alluvial fan, fluvial plain, fan delta, lacustrine delta, shore - shallow lacustrine, beach salty flat, semi - deep to deep lacustrine, subaqueous gravity flow,lacustrine swamp and pyroclastic sediments. However, some event units were formed during lake - marine linking periods of the Mid - Cretaceous in the basin, which include black shales with high values for salinity (Sr/Ba) , alkalinity ( Ca + Mg)/(Si + Al) , reducibility (Ni + Zn)/Ga and sulfide sulfur as well as heavy isotopes. The Breitenholz -section to be represented for facies comparison with the Cretaceous evaporitic series in Northeast China is localized in Southwest Germany. Stratigraphically it belongs to the Crabfeld Formation of Keuper of the Germanic Triassic corresponding to Ladinian - Carnian of the international reference scale, and is generally called Lower Gipskeuper. The Germanic Triassic was deposited in the epicontinental (cratonic) central Europe Basin. It covered the area in between Great Britain, North Sea, Poland and Southern Germany. It is composed of cyclic deposits of multicolored mudstones, gypsum/anhydrite, and dolomite beds. The two cases of marine ingression - influenced sequences share some common features.

  16. Significant performance enhancement of yttrium-doped barium cerate proton conductor as electrolyte for solid oxide fuel cells through a Pd ingress-egress approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Ran, Ran; Li, Sidian; Jiao, Yong; Tade, Moses O.; Shao, Zongping

    2014-07-01

    Proton-conducting perovskite oxides are excellent electrolyte materials for SOFCs that may improve power density at reduced temperatures and increase fuel efficiency, thus encouraging the widespread implementation of this attractive technology. The main challenges in the application of these oxides in SOFCs are difficult sintering and insufficient conductivity in real cells. In this study, we propose a novel method to significantly enhance the performance of a yttrium-doped barium cerate proton conductor as an electrolyte for SOFCs through a Pd ingress-egress approach to the development of BaCe0.8Y0.1Pd0.1O3-δ (BCYP10). The capability of the Pd egress from the BCYP10 perovskite lattice is demonstrated by H2-TPR, XRD, EDX mapping of STEM and XPS. Significant improvement in the sinterability is observed after the introduction of Pd due to the increased ionic conductivity and the sintering aid effect of egressed Pd. The formation of a B-site cation defect structure after Pd egress and the consequent modification of perovskite grain boundaries with Pd nanoparticles leads to a proton conductivity of BCYP10 that is approximately 3 times higher than that of BCY under a reducing atmosphere. A single cell with a thin film BCYP10 electrolyte reaches a peak power density as high as 645 mA cm-2 at 700 °C.

  17. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  18. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  19. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  20. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    CERN Document Server

    Blanchet, Steve

    2012-01-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments in recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  1. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  2. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges......The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria...

  3. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  4. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  5. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  6. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  7. Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution is a mixture of solid particles and gases in the air. Car emissions, chemicals from factories, dust, ... a gas, is a major part of air pollution in cities. When ozone forms air pollution, it's ...

  8. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  9. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  10. Climate scenarios for semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A comparison of climate scenarios for the dryland regions, in West Africa from 1990 to 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Born GJ; Schaeffer M; Leemans R; NOP

    2001-01-01

    The identification of climate scenarios for dryland areas in Sub-Saharan West Africa is part of a project to assess the impact of climate change on water availability, agriculture and food security in drylands (ICCD-project). The project is financed by Netherlands Research Programme on Global Air P

  11. Co-benefits of air quality and climate change policies on air quality of the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Unal, Alper; Kindap, Tayfun; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world where significant impacts due to climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. Observations and model simulations are used to provide to the policy makers scientifically based estimates of the necessity to adjust national emission reductions needed to achieve air quality objectives in the context of a changing climate, which is not only driven by GHGs, but also by short lived climate pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols. There is an increasing interest and need to design cost-benefit emission reduction strategies, which could improve both regional air quality and global climate change. In this study we used the WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and particulate matter concentrations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and to understand how this contribution could change in different future scenarios. We have investigated four different future scenarios for year 2050 defined during the European Project CIRCE: a "business as usual" scenario (BAU) where no or just actual measures are taken into account; an "air quality" scenario (BAP) which implements the National Emission Ceiling directive 2001/81/EC member states of the European Union (EU-27); a "climate change" scenario (CC) which implements global climate policies decoupled from air pollution policies; and an "integrated air quality and climate policy" scenario (CAP) which explores the co-benefit of global climate and EU-27 air pollution policies. The BAP scenario largely decreases summer ozone concentrations over almost the entire continent, while the CC and CAP scenarios similarly determine lower decreases in summer ozone but extending all over the Mediterranean, the Middle East countries and Russia. Similar patterns are found for winter PM concentrations; BAP scenario improves pollution levels only in the Western EU countries, and the CAP scenario determines

  12. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  13. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  14. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  15. Airing 'clean air' in Clean India Mission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, T; Kumar, M; Mall, R K; Singh, R S

    2016-12-30

    The submission explores the possibility of a policy revision for considering clean air quality in recently launched nationwide campaign, Clean India Mission (CIM). Despite of several efforts for improving availability of clean household energy and sanitation facilities, situation remain still depressing as almost half of global population lacks access to clean energy and proper sanitation. Globally, at least 2.5 billion people do not have access to basic sanitation facilities. There are also evidences of 7 million premature deaths by air pollution in year 2012. The situation is even more disastrous for India especially in rural areas. Although, India has reasonably progressed in developing sanitary facilities and disseminating clean fuel to its urban households, the situation in rural areas is still miserable and needs to be reviewed. Several policy interventions and campaigns were made to improve the scenario but outcomes were remarkably poor. Indian census revealed a mere 31% sanitation coverage (in 2011) compared to 22% in 2001 while 60% of population (700 million) still use solid biofuels and traditional cook stoves for household cooking. Further, last decade (2001-2011) witnessed the progress decelerating down with rural households without sanitation facilities increased by 8.3 million while minimum progress has been made in conversion of conventional to modern fuels. To revamp the sanitation coverage, an overambitious nationwide campaign CIM was initiated in 2014 and present submission explores the possibility of including 'clean air' considerations within it. The article draws evidence from literatures on scenarios of rural sanitation, energy practises, pollution induced mortality and climatic impacts of air pollution. This subsequently hypothesised with possible modification in available technologies, dissemination modes, financing and implementation for integration of CIM with 'clean air' so that access to both sanitation and clean household energy may be

  16. Health benefit evaluation of the energy use scenarios in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xiaochuan; Yue, Wei; He, Kebin; Tong, Shilu

    2007-03-15

    Air pollution is one of the important causal factors for excess cardiorespiratory deaths and diseases. However, little information is available on health gains from clean energy usage in developing countries. In this study the expected population exposed to air pollutants was estimated under the different energy use scenarios by the year 2010, 2020 and 2030, respectively, in the urban area of Beijing, China. The concentration-response functions between air pollutants and the health endpoints were established using meta-analysis and regression models. The decreased cardiorespiratory deaths and diseases of the exposed population were predicted as the health benefits from air pollution reduction. We used daily measurements of particulate matter less than 10 mum in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and sulphate dioxide (SO(2)) as air pollution indicators. The percentage of population exposed to higher level of PM(10) will be decreased significantly under the clean energy use scenario than that under the Baseline Scenario (i.e., business-as-usual scenario). Compared with the Baseline Scenario there will be, by 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively, a decrease of 29-152, 30-212 and 39-287 acute excess deaths; and 340-1811, 356-2529 and 462-3424 chronic excess deaths associated with the reduction of PM(10) level; also a decrease of 237-331, 285-371 and 400-554 short-term excess deaths associated with the decrease of SO(2) level. Meanwhile, the number of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions, outpatient visits to internal and paediatrics departments, total emergency room visits and asthma attacks will be remarkably reduced with the reduction of air pollution. Energy structure improvement could reduce ambient air pollution and produce substantial health benefits to the population in Beijing. These findings may have significant implications for other metropolitan cities, particularly in developing countries.

  17. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  18. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  19. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  20. 饱和状态下开裂混凝土内的氯离子输运%Chloride ingression in cracked concrete under saturated state

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    延永东; 金伟良; 王海龙

    2011-01-01

    为得出饱和状态下氯离子在开裂混凝土内的输运规律,将饱和状态分为溶液静止和溶液流动2种情况;同时分别考虑表面氯离子质量分数与氯离子扩散系数的时变性和氯离子在混凝土内的线性结合理论,对前者采用传统的双重孔隙介质模型,对后者则采用二维扩散模型进行分析.基于Fick第二定律得出氯离子在裂缝和开裂附近混凝土内输运的计算方程,并根据裂缝自愈的影响对2种模型进行了修正.分别采用这2种模型对所设计的氯离子在预开裂混凝土试件内的侵蚀进行了计算.对比裂缝附近不同时间混凝土内氯离子质量分数的试验结果表明:短期侵蚀采用2种模型计算的结果均接近于试验值,长期侵蚀采用二维扩散模型能得到更加精确的结果.该结果为氯盐侵蚀下的混凝土结构耐久性设计与评估提供了参考.%Chloride transportation was divided into stationary and flowing solution states to investigate the mechanics of chloride transportation in cracked concrete under saturated condition. The behaviors of time-dependent surface chloride concentration and chloride diffusion coefficient in concrete were analyzed by dual porous medium model, and the behavior of linear bonding between concrete and chloride was analyzed by two-dimensional diffusion model, respectively. The governing equations of chloride ions diffusing into concrete and cracked concrete were described by the Fick's 2nd law considering the effect of crack self-healing. Comparisons between the experimental and the numerical results showed the effectiveness of the proposed models. Dual porous medium model and two-dimensional diffusion model are both applicable for the short term ingression of chloride, and the two-dimensional diffusion model is more appropriate to the long term simulation.

  1. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  2. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Polizer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A.C.C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V.V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prosp

  3. Scenario planning methodology in biomedicine sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Nabipour

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. Scenario planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, scenario planning has two major parts: first, choosing which scenario logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for scenario planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, scenario planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these scenarios, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

  4. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  5. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  6. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  7. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  8. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  9. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  10. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl-Brouwer, van der Mieke; Voort, van der Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  11. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  12. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  13. Scenario development for reaching urban and environmental planning integration in the context of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagare, V.M.E.; Sepulveda Carmona, D.A.

    2014-01-01

    Presentation based on a research done by appointment of Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA, USA. Nov 2013. Scenarios for an integral approach to urban and environmental dimensions in the Lower Parana Delta (Argentina). Consortia UBA-SU Buenos Aires-TUD

  14. Virtual testing of driver OOP scenarios: effect of modeling detail on injury response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Rekveldt, M.G.C.; Hoof, J.F.A.M. van

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates the relevance of certain parameters for virtual testing of the driver's side OOP problem and attempts to answer the following questions: Which level of detail is needed in the airbag models to assess occupants' injury values for OOP scenarios? What is the influence of the air

  15. Cluster correlations - a test for biased scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-gonzalez, E.; Sanz, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The cluster autocorrelation function Xi(c) and the galaxy-cluster cross-correlation Xi(gc) are used to test the biased structure formation in several scenarios. A scale-free spectrum can reproduce the observed Xi(c), but it is in contradiction to Xi(gc). On the other hand, acceptable results are obtained for Xi(gc) in cold dark matter scenarios with adiabatic and isocurvature fluctuations. However, these scenarios are rejected on the grounds of Xi(c). 42 references.

  16. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  17. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  18. Numerical assessment of non-uniform corrosion scenarios of rebar in concrete exposed to natural chloride environment

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Muthulingam; B N Rao

    2015-06-01

    Corrosion of embedded rebars is a classical deterioration mechanism that remains as one of the most significant problems limiting the service life of concrete structures exposed to chloride-laden environments. The primary objective of this study is to propose and verify a numerical framework that can efficiently quantify non-uniform corrosion penetration depth along the perimeter of the rebar in concrete exposed to chloride environment. This framework investigates the corrosion process during both the corrosion initiation and propagation phases by exploring the effects of not only the rebar existence but also its sizes and locations. The corrosion initiation phase is examined through a comprehensive chloride ingress model that identifies the most important parameters that influence the intrusion of chlorides into RC. The corrosion propagation phase is studied based on a decisive parameter, namely, the corrosion rate. In addition, the framework evaluates the non-uniform corrosion states that correspond to two scenarios of corrosion penetration depth: corrosion of segment of the rebar and uneven corrosion along the rebar perimeter. Numerical solution shows that, in general, chloride build-up along the perimeter of the corner bar is not only faster but also higher than that of the middle bar. Moreover, for the given values of cover thickness and water-to-binder ratio, time-to-corrosion initiation for the corner bar is faster than that for the middle bar. Furthermore, the larger the rebar, in general, the bigger the obstruction, and therefore, the higher the chloride build-up. Qualitative comparisons of the evaluated non-uniform corrosion scenarios with the variety of available laboratory and field data show good agreement.

  19. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  20. Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub

    2010-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., & Kurvers, H. J. (2010, 23 March). Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation during a workshop with Sector5, Heerlen, The Netherlands: Open University of the Netherlands; iCoper.

  1. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  2. Type Ia supernovae and the DD scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Isern, J; Lorén-Aguilar, P

    2011-01-01

    Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

  3. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... mainly supplying the home market. From a social point of view this will require further growth of other industries to replace the important place of the food industry. Another challenge will be to define sustainability and naturalness in relation to food production plus to simplify and standardize rules...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  4. Fish Springs pond snail : Refuge communication scenario

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Communication scenario between the branch of Listing and Recovery, Fish and Wildlife Enhancement, and Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), in regards to the...

  5. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  6. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  7. Air Composition and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brimblecombe, Peter

    1996-01-01

    This book is about the atmosphere and humanity's influence on it. For this new edition, Brimblecombe has rewritten and updated much of the book. In the early chapters, he discusses the geochemical, biological and maritime sources of the trace gases. Next, he examines the chemistry of atmospheric gases, suspended particles, and rainfall. After dealing with the natural atmosphere, he examines the sources of air pollution and its effects, with all scenarios updated from the last edition. Scenarios include decline in health, damage to plants and animals, indoor pollution, and acid rain. The final chapters, also revised, are concerned with the chemistry and evolution of the atmospheres of the planets of the solar system. Students with an interest in chemistry and the environmental sciences will find this book highly valuable.

  8. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

    2014-05-01

    Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

  9. Study of Ingress and Binding of Cl-ions in the Cement Concrete%Cl-在水泥混凝土中的迁移及固化研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张永义; 夏大庆

    2014-01-01

    The free form of chloride may cause corrosion of steel in the reinforce concrete,and as a result,the structure will damage.In order to predict the service life of the concrete structure,it is significant to understand the ingress mechanism and the form of chloride in the concrete.In this work,the mechanism of steel corrosion and chloride ingress is analyzed,and the binding of chloride by the cementitious materials is also discussed.The results showed that the chloride ingress in the concrete both under capillary pressure of the surface and diffusion at the internal.The chloride binding capacity of cementitious material depends both on its mineral phase and the admixture.Generally,the increasing addition of admixture can improve the chloride binding.It is hoped to give an idea to improve the durability of the reinforced concrete.%混凝土中的游离态氯离子可使钢筋发生锈蚀,最终导致混凝土结构的破坏,Cl-在混凝土中的迁移及存在形态对钢筋混凝土的结构寿命的预测具有重要的意义。分析和总结了钢筋在氯离子作用下发生锈蚀的机理,及氯离子在混凝土中迁移及固化。结果表明氯离子在混凝土中迁移方式以表层的毛细管作用和深层的扩散作用同时进行;水泥基材料的矿物组成与其固化氯离子能力有关,通常加入辅助胶凝材料可提高氯离子固化量,增加抗渗性。文章为提高钢筋混凝土结构耐久性提供一个思路。

  10. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  11. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  13. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  14. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  15. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  16. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  17. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic...... fraction for mechanical upgrading and separation into specific polymer types, with the residual plastic fraction being down-cycled and used for “wood items”. In P3 a mixed plastic fraction is source separated together with metals in a “dry bin”. In P4 plastic is mechanically separated from residual waste....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...

  18. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  19. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...... optimization sets for corresponding optimization problems is useful in a power system context. Generating and evaluating such spacetime scenarios is difficult. While quite a number of proposals have appeared in the literature, a gap between methodological proposals and actual usage in operational and planning...... studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open...

  20. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  1. Computational Study of Scenarios Regarding Explosion Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasin, Nicolae-Ioan; Mihai Pasculescu, Vlad; Florea, Gheorghe-Daniel; Cornel Suvar, Marius

    2016-10-01

    Exploration in order to discover new deposits of natural gas, upgrading techniques to exploit these resources and new ways to convert the heat capacity of these gases into industrial usable energy is the research areas of great interest around the globe. But all activities involving the handling of natural gas (exploitation, transport, combustion) are subjected to the same type of risk: the risk to explosion. Experiments carried out physical scenarios to determine ways to reduce this risk can be extremely costly, requiring suitable premises, equipment and apparatus, manpower, time and, not least, presenting the risk of personnel injury. Taking in account the above mentioned, the present paper deals with the possibility of studying the scenarios of gas explosion type events in virtual domain, exemplifying by performing a computer simulation of a stoichiometric air - methane explosion (methane is the main component of natural gas). The advantages of computer-assisted imply are the possibility of using complex virtual geometries of any form as the area of deployment phenomenon, the use of the same geometry for an infinite number of settings of initial parameters as input, total elimination the risk of personnel injury, decrease the execution time etc. Although computer simulations are hardware resources consuming and require specialized personnel to use the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques, the costs and risks associated with these methods are greatly diminished, presenting, in the same time, a major benefit in terms of execution time.

  2. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting dur...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  3. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  4. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  5. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  6. 500 GeV ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brau, James E; Barklow, T; Brau, J; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design of a 500 GeV linear collider, but does not specify the center-of-mass energy steps of operation for the collider. The ILC Parameters Joint Working Group has studied possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes, and considered the evolution of the physics outcomes. These physics goals include Higgs precision measurements, top quark measurements and searches for new physics. We present an "optimized" operating scenario and the anticipated evolution of the precision of the ILC measurements.

  7. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  8. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  9. Global air quality and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J; Dalsøren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean-François; MacKenzie, Ian A; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T; Shindell, Drew T; Skeie, Ragnhild B; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang

    2012-10-07

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas

  10. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Horowitz, Larry W.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A.; Ginoux, Paul; Josse, Batrice; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; OConnor, Fiona M.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Shindell, Drew Todd; Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  11. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  12. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  13. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  14. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  15. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  16. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  17. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  18. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant clust

  19. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  20. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar...

  1. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...

  2. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  3. Demografische modellen voor scenario-onderzoek

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen RT

    1991-01-01

    A demographic model is described that has been used in scenario-research for calculating future population numbers. The demographic model developed is a discrete Markov-model. It calculates the changes in the Netherlands population numbers for each year successively. the model is specially develo

  4. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  5. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubert, B.; Rosegrant, M.; Boekel, van M.A.J.S.; Ortiz, R.

    2010-01-01

    This background article addresses key challenges of adequately feeding a population of 9 billion by 2050, while preserving the agro-ecosystems from which other services are also expected. One of the scenario-buildings uses the Agrimonde platform, which considers the following steps: choosing the sce

  6. Scenario simulation of water security in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUYANG Zhi-yun; ZHAO Tong-qian; WANG Ru-song; Leif S(O)RLUND; ZHANG Qiao-xian

    2004-01-01

    Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement.

  7. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  8. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  9. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020.

  10. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  11. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  12. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acc...

  13. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    prepare for different possible futures do scenario methods offer real value. A way to try to be better prepared for the future is to deduct competence and research needs given different possible future development described in a number of scenarios. Hence, the aim of this paper is to test the use...... of scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro...... level. Here we apply the scenario technique at an industry level. We hope our experience with the process will be helpful to practitioners who wish to work with scenarios as well as researchers who may be able to learn from our experiences with an expansion of the scenario method. The Danish food...

  14. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Naoya [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L., E-mail: nkobayas@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: erickcek@physics.unc.edu [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H8 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  15. Rolling in the Modulated Reheating Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Erickcek, Adrienne L

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheated scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  16. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  17. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  18. Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Adolfo Sierra Romero

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices.

  19. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  20. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-05

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  1. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Christian T; Liddle, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyse its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become non-relativistic, and change the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order $0.1$ typically. If the branching ratio is below about $10^{-4}$ it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  2. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  3. Main Features for the Conceptualization of the Post-Closure Evolution Scenario of the Cigeo LIL-HL Waste Repository - 13105

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landais, Patrick; Giffaut, Eric; Pepin, Guillaume; Plas, Frederic; Schumacher, S. [Andra, 1-7 rue Jean Monnet, 92298 Chatenay Malabry (France)

    2013-07-01

    In France, in order to commission the planned geological repository by 2025, a license application for the industrial project of this geological repository called Cigeo (Centre Industriel de Stockage Geologique) must be submitted and reviewed by the competent authorities by 2015. On the basis of its preliminary design set up in 2009 and on the associated requirements for long-term safety, an overall conceptual model has been developed in order to prepare the performance and safety analysis. The Cigeo repository makes use of the passive safety response characteristics of both the engineered and geological barriers that allow: - resisting water ingress, with repository designs favoring the limitation of the water flows; - limiting the release of radionuclides and chemical toxics; - delaying and mitigating the spread of radionuclides and chemical toxics. In order to evaluate the performance of the various elements, a conceptual model of the thermo-hydro-chemico-mechanical (THMC) evolution of the different components of the repository has been designed. It takes stock of a 20 years research effort which allowed data to be obtained from various surface geological campaigns, in-situ experiments in URLs and wastes characterization, and advances in numerical simulation to be utilised. Based on the best available knowledge to date, this conceptual model constitutes a robust basis for the definition and development of the long-term safety scenarios. It also helps identifying the residual uncertainties, and provides guidelines for additional research and system optimizations. (authors)

  4. Conditional Reasoning: Scenario or context effects

    OpenAIRE

    Valiña, Mª Dolores; Seoane, Gloria; Ghering, Sonnya; Ferraces, Mª José; Fernández-Rey, Xosé

    1992-01-01

    This paper study the importance of contextual factors in reasoning with conditional inference tasks. In this experiment subjects were given conditional sentences in the context of narrative texts, Short stories about scenarios of the daily life were described in this texts. The experiment manipulated: a) context (causal or promises/threats), b) degree of factual relation between antecedent and consequent of conditional (deterministic, probabilistic or without relation), c) congruence betwe...

  5. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  6. Visualization in sporting contexts : the team scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Kazmi, Aqeel H.; O'Grady, Michael J; O'Hare, G. M. P. (Greg M. P.)

    2011-01-01

    Wearable sensor systems require an interactive and communicative interface for the user to interpret data in a meaningful way. The development of adaptive personalization features in a visualization tool for such systems can convey a more meaningful picture to the user of the system. In this paper, a visualization tool called Visualization in Team Scenarios (VTS), which can be used by a coach to monitor an athlete’s physiological parameters, is presented. The VTS has been implemented with a w...

  7. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  8. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  9. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  10. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  11. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  12. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  13. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  14. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  15. Effect of cationic types on concrete resistance to chloride ingress%阳离子类型对混凝土固化氯离子能力的影响机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    岳青滢; 丁宁; 王石付; 金龙

    2014-01-01

    In order to reveal the effect of cationic types on concrete resistance to chloride ingress.The 24 dry-wet cycles were experimented on 18 concrete specimens which were 100 mm×100 mm×100 mm,and imbedded by steel bars.Free chlorine ion concentration test and total chlorine ion concentration test were executed by potentiometric titration method.The pH of the residual solution was tested by acidimeter.The dffractometer was used to analyse the hydration product of cementitious material qualitatively.And Integrated Thermal Gravimetric Analyzer was used to analyse the hydration product with digital thermogravimetry and differential digital thermogravimetry.The data indicated that catinonic types had a remarkable influence on ability of concrete resistance to chloride ingress and the pH of pore solution.The ability of con-crete resistance to chloride ingress was Ca2+>Mg2+>Na+≈K+.Both K+and Na+lead to increase of pH in pore solution,decrease in combined and total chlorine ion concentration.Mg2+which consume C-S-H lead to decrease of pH in pore solution.The relevant pH and free chlorine ion concentration was lower than K+and Na+.Ca2+lead to higher combined and total chlorine ion concentration than Mg2+.%为了研究阳离子类型(Na+、K+、Mg2+和Ca2+)对混凝土固化氯离子能力的影响,对尺寸为100 mm×100 mm×100 mm,预埋钢棒的18个混凝土试件进行24个周期的干湿循环试验,采用电位滴定法进行游离态氯离子浓度测试和总的氯离子浓度测试,并用酸度计测定剩余溶液的pH值。采用衍射仪定性分析胶凝材料水化产物,同时利用综合热分析仪进行热重法和微分热重法定量分析水化产物。试验结果表明,阳离子的类型显著的影响着混凝土固化氯离子的能力及孔隙液pH值,对应的固化氯离子能力大小趋势为Ca2+>Mg2+>Na+≈K+,K+与Na+较为相似,导致孔隙液pH值升高,结合氯离子量及总氯离子含量则相对降低。Mg2+

  16. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  17. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    González Paula LM

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998, trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent

  18. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, Roland; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

    2015-11-01

    The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in

  19. INFORMATION SCENARIOS OVER THE RISK IN INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica Tirlea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Risks management means identifying them, assessing, quantifying and strategy to counter them, and finding solutions to some levers to diminish or even eliminate the possibility of developing or their consequences. Hung everywhere, risk is associated with uncertain situations and opportunities. The consequences of risk can result in adverse or positive effects related to the activity of the insurance undertaking or of the reinsurance undertaking. The risk has a pronounced randomly character, and its presence in the field of insurance undertakings and reinsurance. This can be explained by the fact that the risks are taken by these companies and have direct effects on their financial results during the period of validity of the contractual relations. The results of risk effects have an impact on the results of activity of insurance companies. The financial impact of a negative event, exceed the sum of the individual loss, leading in some cases to bankruptcy. The financial impact is due to the positive opportunities, which have not made an appearance, and the first event to transform into income. An important role is the responsibility of the information system, providing solutions based on scenarios, by electronic data processing, consider all types of consequences of a hazard and allow insurance companies and reinsurance, on the other hand, to calculate all the possible consequences of a given event and the ultimate financial impact on them, and finally, to make decisions to base decisions for various insurance products and reinsurance. People insurance records for each situation. In practice the scenario method is only used to make specific estimates for different scenarios depending on the circumstances, which has a certain probability of realization, for the favorable; for the neutral and negative and gives solutions for each individual, taking into account certain criteria. For example, we will present a life insurance in several poses.

  20. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

    2005-07-15

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  1. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  2. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  3. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...... the inferred privacy region is a random set obtained by an adversary who only knows the anchor and the points received from the server, where the adversary ‘does the best' to infer the possible locations of the user. Probabilistic results related to the communication cost and the inferred privacy region...

  4. The teaching profession: scenarios, profiles and tendencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Palomero Fernández

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the special issue of the Revista Electrónica Interuniversitaria de Formación del Profesorado, 35, volumen 13 (4 entitled The teaching profession: Scenarios, profiles and tendencies. It contains contributions from authors affiliated to twenty-eight different institutions across five countries: Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Peru. The twenty-eight articles included are followed by a number of PhD thesis summaries and book reviews, whose general framework is that of the teaching profession.

  5. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  6. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazeia, D; Menezes, R; Olmo, Gonzalo J; Rubiera-Garcia, D

    2015-01-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein's theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  7. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  8. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-02-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  9. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Linde, A; Vikman, A

    2009-01-01

    In a recent paper arXiv:0910.2230, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in arXiv:0910.2230 are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  10. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, S.S. [Dept. of Energy, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  11. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  12. Estimates of associated outdoor particulate matter health risk and costs reductions from alternative building, ventilation and filtration scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Zuraimi M

    2007-05-01

    Although many studies have reported calculations of outdoor particulate matter (PM) associated externalities using ambient data, there is little information on the role buildings, their ventilation and filtration play. This study provides the framework to evaluate the health risk and cost reduction of building, ventilation and filtration strategies from outdoor PM pollution on a nationwide level and applied it to a case study in Singapore. Combining Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) and time weighted exposure models, with established concentration-response functions and monetary valuation methods, mortality and morbidity effects of outdoor PM on the population of Singapore under different building, ventilation and filtration strategies were estimated. Different interventions were made to compare the effects from the current building conditions. The findings demonstrate that building protection effect reduced approximately half the attributable health cases amounting to US$17.7 billion due to PM pollution when compared to levels computed using outdoor data alone. For residential buildings, nationwide adoption of natural ventilation from current state is associated with 28% higher cases of mortality and 13 to 38% higher cases for different morbidities, amounting to US$6.7 billion. The incurred cost is negligible compared to energy costs of air-conditioning. However, nationwide adoption of closed residence and air-conditioning are associated with outcomes including fewer mortality (10 and 6% respectively), fewer morbidities (8 and 4% respectively) and economic savings of US$1.5 and 0.9 billion respectively. The related savings were about a factor of 9 the energy cost for air-conditioning. Nationwide adoption of mechanical ventilation and filtration from current natural ventilation in schools is associated with fewer asthma hospital admissions and exacerbations; although the economic impact is not substantial. Enhanced workplace filtration reduces the mortality and morbidity

  13. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  14. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Mayerhofer, P.; Guardans, R.; Harmelen, T. van; Minnen, J. van; Onigkeit, J.; Posch, M.; Vries, B. de

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 a

  15. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  16. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  18. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  19. Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wächter Petra

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30–40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

  20. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

  1. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  2. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  3. Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to view this content or go to source URL . What NIEHS is Doing on Air Pollution Who ... Junction Last Reviewed: February 06, 2017 This page URL: NIEHS website: https://www.niehs.nih.gov/ Email ...

  4. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Applied and theoretical research into novel foresight methods is pushing forward to considerhow art and design are relevant, and perhaps even necessary, for effective interventions. Taking the governance of emerging energy technologies as a focal area, this preliminary research for aMarie Curie...... Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I...

  5. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  6. Future impacts of nitrogen deposition and climate change scenarios on forest crown defoliation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marco, Alessandra; Proietti, Chiara; Cionni, Irene; Fischer, Richard; Screpanti, Augusto; Vitale, Marcello

    2014-11-01

    Defoliation is an indicator for forest health in response to several stressors including air pollutants, and one of the most important parameters monitored in the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The study aims to estimate crown defoliation in 2030, under three climate and one nitrogen deposition scenarios, based on evaluation of the most important factors (meteorological, nitrogen deposition and chemical soil parameters) affecting defoliation of twelve European tree species. The combination of favourable climate and nitrogen fertilization in the more adaptive species induces a generalized decrease of defoliation. On the other hand, severe climate change and drought are main causes of increase in defoliation in Quercus ilex and Fagus sylvatica, especially in Mediterranean area. Our results provide information on regional distribution of future defoliation, an important knowledge for identifying policies to counteract negative impacts of climate change and air pollution.

  7. Scenario-building considerations for financial planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, S.; Carino, D.

    1994-12-31

    The construction of scenarios is an essential model-building step in stochastic programming. When a discrete sample of scenarios is chosen to represent a continuity of potential outcomes, scenario choice can impact both solution speed and quality. For financial planning models, techniques are discussed that ensure a scenario set matches moments of the continuous distribution and improvements in solution speed and quality are investigated.

  8. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a simulation study on the generation of a random scenario for the performance of track splitting algorithm on a digital signal processor.  Much of the previous work [1] was done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios...

  9. Application of the SAROTA index in real-life scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojatkar, A.; Monebhurrun, V.

    2014-10-01

    A unique parameter referred to as the SAROTA index which accounts for both the specific absorption rate (SAR) and the over-the-air (OTA) performance of a mobile phone was previously proposed to characterize the real-life exposure. The applicability of the SAROTA index was confirmed using SAR and total radiated power (TRP) data obtained under laboratory conditions wherein the power control (PC) enforced on the mobile phone was implemented artificially. Herein the investigation is extended to measurements conducted for the speech mode of operation in real-life scenarios. Based on the actual PC implemented during the communication with the base station, the instantaneous and average real-life exposure experienced by the mobile phone user is analyzed and compared to the predicted SAROTA index. To capture the PC in real-time, a set of hardware modified phones with embedded network monitoring software are used. The instantaneous uplink transmit power level (TX_LEV) along with various downlink parameters such as the receive signal level (RX_LEV) and received signal quality (RX_QUAL) of the communication link are thus available for performing a comprehensive RF exposure analysis.

  10. Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Yinlong; ZHANG Yong; LIN Erda; LIN Wantao; DONG Wenjie; Richard Jones; David Hassell; Simon Wilson

    2006-01-01

    The PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961-1990) climate for evaluation of model's capacity of simulating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071-2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the comparison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local distribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking, the simulation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer, respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography, and the simulated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to baseline that there would be an obvious surface air temperature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China, and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China, the amplitude of summer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5℃; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China, while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However, it presents an obvious precipitation increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.

  11. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  12. Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byman H. Hamududu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

  13. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  14. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows....... It jointly performs congestion control and inter-cell interference avoidance by means of a utility describing the cell's channel. Centralized and uncoordinated schemes are studied. The first is defined as an integer linear program, while the second builds on the best channel utility developed for the first...... and combines it with a stochastic admission process. Based on simulation evaluation, it is shown that uncoordinated is near-optimal, while providing a viable solution for uncoordinated small cell deployments. Finally, the best utility developed proved better than the traditional power allocation....

  15. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network"

    CERN Document Server

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M

    2012-01-01

    The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few exceptions is the "Romantic network" which is a complete structure of a real sexual network of a high school. In terms of topology, unlike other sexual networks classified as scale-free network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have effects on diffusion through networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes.With the aim to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI in it, we perform simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve in time. In the static case, we compare the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. We further...

  16. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  17. Distributed Function Computation in Asymmetric Communication Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Agnihotri, Samar

    2009-01-01

    We consider the distributed function computation problem in asymmetric communication scenarios, where the sink computes some deterministic function of the data split among N correlated informants. The distributed function computation problem is addressed as a generalization of distributed source coding (DSC) problem. We are mainly interested in minimizing the number of informant bits required, in the worst-case, to allow the sink to exactly compute the function. We provide a constructive solution for this in terms of an interactive communication protocol and prove its optimality. The proposed protocol also allows us to compute the worst-case achievable rate-region for the computation of any function. We define two classes of functions: lossy and lossless. We show that, in general, the lossy functions can be computed at the sink with fewer number of informant bits than the DSC problem, while computation of the lossless functions requires as many informant bits as the DSC problem.

  18. The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saueressig, Frank [Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, D-55099 Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Asymptotic safety offers the possibility that gravity constitutes a consistent and predictive quantum field theory within Wilsons generalized framework of renormalization. The key ingredient of this scenario is a non-trivial fixed point of the gravitational renormalization group flow which governs the UV behavior of the theory. The fixed point itself thereby guarantees the absence of unphysical UV divergences while its associated finite-dimensional UV-critical surface ensures the predictivity of the resulting quantum theory. This talk summarizes the evidence for the existence of such a fixed point, which emerged from the flow equation for the effective average action, the gravitational beta-functions in 2+{epsilon} dimensions, the 2-Killing vector reduction of the gravitational path-integral and lattice simulations. Possible phenomenological consequences are discussed in detail.

  19. Inflationary dynamics in the braneworld scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Kai-Yuan; Wu Pu-Xun; Yu Hong-Wei

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the attractor behaviour of the inflation field in braneworld scenarios using the Hamilton-Jacobi formalism,where the Friedmann equation has the form of H2 =ρ + ε√2ρ0ρ or H2 =ρ + ερ2/2σ,with ε =+ 1.We find that in all models the linear homogeneous perturbation can decay exponentially as the scalar field rolls down its potential.However,in the case of a-ρ2 correction to the standard cosmology with ρ < σ,the existence of an attractor solution requires (σ-ρ)/φ2 > 1.Our results show that the perturbation decays more quickly in models with positive-energy correction than in the standard cosmology,which is opposite to the case of negative-energy correction.Thus,the positive-energy modification rather than the negative one can assist the inflation and widen the range of initial conditions.

  20. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  1. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  2. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    the different background exposure between two countries allows in fact the definition of a common framework for improving exposure scenarios within REACH system, for monitoring environmental health, and for increasing degree of circularity of resource and substance flows. References 1. European Commission...... instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... and managing the risks posed by industrial chemicals and providing appropriate safety information to their users (EC, 2007). However, to ensure a high level of protection of human health and the environment, there is a need to consider ‘aggregate exposure’ including background exposures from environment which...

  3. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    Over the last few decades, considerable changes in food consumption – such as eating habits, dietary changes, availability and accessability of food – have taken place. These are mainly due to an increase in productivity of the food sector, a greater diversity in product choices and a decrease...... of different policy paths. The intention of this discussion paper is to provide background information to the third CORPUS “Policy meets Research” workshop on sustainable food consumption as part of the CORPUS project. The paper provides a short summary on the use of scenarios in evidence-based policy making...... are discussed. Based on prior research on key challenges and driving forces of sustainable food consumption and guided by the discussions held in the two earlier CORPUS workshops, the focus is on the following strategies and visions: 1. a diet with a higher proportion of vegetables 2. 80% organic food in all...

  4. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  5. A scenario based project portfolio selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Pourahmadi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary assumptions in many project portfolio selection is the availability of all parameters. However, in real-world cases, many parameters are under uncertainty and the exact values are unknown in advance. This paper presents a scenario based mathematical model for project portfolio selection when parameters are under uncertainty. The problem considers two objective functions where the first one maximizes the net present value while the second objective function is the minimization of the positive deviations from the allocation of resources. The second objective function is looking for project resource leveling. The resulted model is formulated as mixed integer programming and the problem is analyzed under different conditions.

  6. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  7. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  8. Inhomogeneous Reheating Scenario with DBI fields

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Sheng

    2010-01-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed $c_s$ from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{NL}$ is independent of $c_s$. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  9. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  10. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Darabi, F. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Research Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics of Maragha (RIAAM), Maragha (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheykhi, A. [College of Sciences, Shiraz University, Physics Department and Biruni Observatory, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} where N{sub bulk} and N{sub sur} are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper,we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} - N{sub extr} where N{sub extr} is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N{sub sur} and N{sub bulk} are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields. (orig.)

  11. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  12. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  13. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  14. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  15. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  16. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  17. Air Traffic Flow Management

    CERN Document Server

    Ganu, Hrishikesh V

    2008-01-01

    Air Traffic Flow Management is the regulation of air traffic in order to avoid exceeding airport or flight sector capacity in handling traffic, and to ensure that available capacity is used efficiently. We have tried to explore the logic behind the claims by Bertsimas et.al about integral solutions to the LP relaxation of the Traffic Flow Management Problem(TFMP). Polyhedral theory only indicates that the stronger TFMP formulation of Bertsimas et.al might lead to integral solutions in some cases. Our computations indicate that the encouraging results reported by Bertsimas et.al are not merely fortuitous or due to their specific data set. Indeed, we found that the TFMP had integral solutions even in case of artificial data sets generated to include severe conflicts in the flight schedules. In our limited tests with 4-5 scenarios, we obtained non-integral solutions only once. This is of significant practical importance because, the LP relaxation can be solved even on small machines with low memory and processor...

  18. Air surveillance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patton, G.W.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the air surveillance and monitoring programs currently in operation at that Hanford Site. Atmospheric releases of pollutants from Hanford to the surrounding region are a potential source of human exposure. For that reason, both radioactive and nonradioactive materials in air are monitored at a number of locations. The influence of Hanford emissions on local radionuclide concentrations was evaluated by comparing concentrations measured at distant locations within the region to concentrations measured at the Site perimeter. This section discusses sample collection, analytical methods, and the results of the Hanford air surveillance program. A complete listing of all analytical results summarized in this section is reported separately by Bisping (1995).

  19. Climate change scenarios over the Mediterranean Basin; Scenari di cambiamento climatico sul bacino del Mediterraneo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casaioli, Marco; Sciortino, Maurizio [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente

    1997-11-01

    The results of climatic simulation over the Mediterranean Basin made available by major climate research centres, have been analyzed with the purposes of defining possible future climate scenarios. The validation of modelling results of present climate with observed climatology makes possible to assess capabilities and limitations of the General Circulation Models over the area under consideration. The evaluation of climate change scenarios in conditions of doubling atmospheric concentration of CO 2 gives indications on the expected magnitude of variation of temperature and precipitation. The results available agree to indicate a possible warming of air temperature but as far as concerned precipitation there is still no consensus between the climate projections produced by the different models considered in this study.

  20. Transitional dispersive scenarios driven by mesoscale flows on complex terrain under strong dry convective conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain under strong convective conditions, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain. The results and discussions presented arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under strong dry convective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. This paper analyses the importance of the identification and physical implications of transitional periods for air quality applications. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during these transitional periods implies a small (or null physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution.

  1. Numerical Simulation of Regional Climate Change under IPCC A2 Scenario in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Jianping; CHEN Xing; ZHAO Ming; SU Bingkai

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate change in China under the IPCC A2 Scenario, was simulated for continuous 10-yr period by the MM5V3, using the output of an IPCC A2 run from CISRO Mark 3 climate system model as lateral and surface boundary conditions. The regional climate change of surface air temperature, precipitation, and circulation were analyzed. The results showed that (1) the distribution of mean circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation was reproduced by the MM5V3. The regional climate model was capable to improve the regional climate simulation driven by GCM. (2) The climate change simulation under the IPCC A2 Scenario indicated that the surface air temperature in China would increase in the future, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from the south to the north. The precipitation distribution would appear a distinct change as well. Annual mean precipitation would remarkably increase in Northeast China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, and the south area of the valley. Meanwhile, rainfall would show a decreasing trend in partial areas of North China, and many regions of Southwest and Northwest China.

  2. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  3. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  4. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  5. Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

    2016-02-01

    Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

  6. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  7. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Liew, Seng Pei; Mawatari, Kentarou; Sakurai, Kazuki; Vereecken, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 $\\sigma$ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain $\\tilde g\\to g\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}\\to gZ\\tilde G'$ becomes dominant, where $\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}$ and $\\tilde G'$ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as $m_{\\tilde g}\\sim 900$ GeV, $m_{\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}}\\sim 700$ GeV and $m_{\\tilde G'}\\sim 600$ GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  8. Dynamical scenarios for chromosome bi-orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-06-18

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly.

  9. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  10. Future Scenario of Renewable Energy in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep Kumar

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review about future scenario of renewable energy in India.Energy is a vital input for economic and social development of any country. With increasing industrialand agricultural activities in the country, the demand for energy is also rising. Solar, wind and biomassare accepted as dependable and widely available renewable sources of energy. To meet the energy requirement for such a fast growingeconomy, India will require an assured supply of 3–5 times more energy than the total energy consumedtoday. The renewable energy is one of the options to meet this requirement Energy is the prime mover of economic growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. Future economic growth crucially depends on the long-term availability of energy from sources that are affordable, accessible and environmentally friendly. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. This paper presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of renewable energy in India. In this paper evaluation of current energy policies for conquering the obstructions and implementing renewables for the future is also been presented.

  11. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  12. What is a Natural SUSY scenario?

    CERN Document Server

    Casas, J Alberto; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof; Zaldivar, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    The idea of "Natural SUSY", understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does {\\em not} demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800~GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-t...

  13. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  14. Quest for potentials in the quintessence scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Hara, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    The time variation of the equation of state $w$ for quintessence scenario with a scalar field as dark energy is studied up to the third derivative ($d^3w/da^3$) with respect to the scale factor $a$, in order to predict the future observations and specify the scalar potential parameters with the observables. The third derivative of $w$ for general potential $V$ is derived and applied to several types of potentials. They are the inverse power-law ($V=M^{4+\\alpha}/Q^{\\alpha}$), the exponential ($V=M^4\\exp{(\\beta M/Q)}$), the cosine ($V=M^4(\\cos (Q/f)+1)$) and the Gaussian types ($V=M^4\\exp(-Q^2/\\sigma^2)$), which are prototypical potentials for the freezing and thawing models. If the parameter number for a potential form is $ n$, it is necessary to find at least for $n+2$ independent observations to identify the potential form and the evolution of the scalar field ($Q$ and $ \\dot{Q} $). Such observations would be the values of $ \\Omega_Q, w, dw/da. \\cdots $, and $ dw^n/da^n$. Since four of the above mentioned po...

  15. A Hadronic Scenario for the Galactic Ridge

    CERN Document Server

    Gaggero, Daniele; Marinelli, Antonio; Urbano, Alfredo; Valli, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    Several observations from Fermi-LAT, up to few hundred GeV, and from H.E.S.S., up to $\\sim$ 10 TeV, reported an intense $\\gamma$-ray emission from the inner part of the Galactic plane. After the subtraction of point-like contributions, the remaining $\\gamma$-ray spectrum can provide important hints about the cosmic-ray (CR) population in that region. In particular, the diffuse spectrum measured by both Fermi-LAT and H.E.S.S. in the Galactic Ridge is significantly harder with respect to the rest of the Galaxy. These results were recently interpreted in terms of a comprehensive CR transport model which, adopting a spatial dependent diffusion coefficient and convective velocity, reproduces Fermi-LAT results on the whole sky as well as local CR spectra. We showed as that model predicts a significantly harder neutrino diffuse emission compared to conventional scenarios: The predicted signal is able to account for a significant fraction of the astrophysical flux measured by IceCube. In this contribution, we use the...

  16. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network.

  17. General Relativistic Simulations of the Collapsar Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    DeBrye, N; Aloy, M A; Font, J A

    2013-01-01

    We are exploring the viability of the collapsar model for long-soft gamma-ray bursts. For this we perform state-of-the-art general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in a dynamically evolving space-time with the CoCoNuT code. We start from massive low metallicity stellar models evolved up to core gravitational instability, and then follow the subsequent evolution until the system collapses forming a compact remnant. A preliminary study of the collapse outcome is performed by varying the typical parameters of the scenario, such as the initial stellar mass, metallicity, and rotational profile of the stellar progenitor. 1D models (without rotation) have been used to test our newly developed neutrino leakage scheme. This is a fundamental piece of our approach as it allows the central remnant (in all cases considered, a metastable high-mass neutron star) to cool down, eventually collapsing to a black hole. In two dimensions, we show that sufficiently fast rotating cores lead to the formation of Kerr black holes...

  18. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  19. Hepatotoxicity and the present herbal hepatoprotective scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyankar Dey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the metabolic and physiological processes of our body as well as the detoxification of various drugs and xenobiotic chemicals occur in the liver. During this detoxification process, the reactive chemical intermediates damage the liver severely. There are several commercially available drugs, consumption of which results in idiosyncratic drug reaction mediated hepatotoxicity. Drug induced hepatotoxicity is a burning problem in this regard and several drugs are withdrawn from the market due to their hepatotoxic nature. Today, worldwide search of non-hepatotoxic drugs, especially potent hepatoprotective drugs have led towards the screening of numerous herbal products. Pharmaceutical companies and scientific communities have started to consider the therapeutic efficiency of the plant-based hepatoprotective remedies. Different herbs are mentioned in various ethnopharmacological practices possessing hepatoprotective capacities and around the globe, such herbs are still used by people to cure certain liver diseases. Therefore, we have documented the various aspects of hepatotoxicity and an overview on the current scenario of the hepatoprotective herbal remedies.

  20. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  1. Royal Danish Air Force. Air Operations Doctrine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørby, Søren

    This brief examines the development of the first Danish Air Force Air Operations Doctrine, which was officially commissioned in October 1997 and remained in effect until 2010. The development of a Danish air power doctrine was heavily influenced by the work of Colonel John Warden (USAF), both...... through his book ”The Air Campaign” and his subsequent planning of the air campaign against Iraq in 1990-1991. Warden’s ideas came to Denmark and the Danish Air Force by way of Danish Air Force students attending the United States Air Force Air University in Alabama, USA. Back in Denmark, graduates from...... the Air University inspired a small number of passionate airmen, who then wrote the Danish Air Operations Doctrine. The process was supported by the Air Force Tactical Command, which found that the work dovetailed perfectly with the transformation process that the Danish Air Force was in the midst...

  2. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  3. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  4. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  5. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    OpenAIRE

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and pr...

  6. Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  7. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    OpenAIRE

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

  8. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  9. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  10. GSPEL - Air Filtration Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Evaluation capabilities for air filtration devices The Air Filtration Lab provides testing of air filtration devices to demonstrate and validate new or legacy system...

  11. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  12. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  13. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  14. LIG1 polymorphisms: the Indian scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Amit Kumar Mitra; Ashok Singh; Indian Genome Variation Consortium; Srikanta Kumar Rath

    2014-08-01

    Elucidation of the genetic diversity and relatedness of the subpopulations of India may provide a unique resource for future analysis of genetic association of several critical community-specific complex diseases.We performed a comprehensive exploration of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the gene DNA ligase 1 (LIG1) among a multiethnic panel of Indian subpopulations representative of the ethnic, linguistic and geographical diversity of India using a two-stage design involving DNA resequencing-based SNP discovery followed by SNP validation using sequenom-based genotyping. Thirty SNPs were identified in LIG1 gene using DNA resequencing including three promoter SNPs and one coding SNP. Following SNP validation, the SNPs rs20580/C19008A and rs3730862/C8804T were found to have the most widespread prevalence with noticeable variations in minor allele frequencies both between the Indian subpopulation groups and also from those reported on other major world populations. Subsequently, SNPs found in Indian subpopulations were analysed using bioinformatics-based approaches and compared with SNP data available on major world populations. Further, we also performed genotype–phenotype association analysis of LIG1 SNPs with publicly available data on LIG1 mRNA expression in HapMap samples. Results showed polymorphisms in LIG1 affect its expression and may therefore change its function. Our results stress upon the uniqueness of the Indian population with respect to the worldwide scenario and suggest that any epidemiological study undertaken on the global population should take this distinctiveness in consideration and avoid making generalized conclusions.

  15. Benefits of European climate policies for mercury air pollution

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and results of impact assessment of renewable energy policies on atmospheric emissions of mercury in Europe. The modeling exercise described here involves an interaction of several models. First, a set of energy scenarios has been developed with the REMix (Renewable Energy Mix) model that simulates different levels of penetration of renewable energies in the European power sector. The energy scenarios were input to the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Polluti...

  16. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand......, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  17. Comprehensive Set of Misalignment Scenarios for the CMS Tracker

    CERN Document Server

    Lampen, Tapio; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schmidt, Alexander; Weber, Markus

    2008-01-01

    New misalignment scenarios are implemented for the CMS Tracker as a set of working hypotheses for simulation studies. Educated guesses of random misalignments are applied to various geometrical structures. $\\chi ^{2}$-invariant deformations are not simulated. The new scenarios are called as SurveyLASOnly, SurveyLASCosmics, $10\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$, $100\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ and $1000\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ scenarios, and they correspond approximately to the respective situation. Details of the scenarios and a list of possible future improvements are discussed. The impact on track reconstruction performance and Z mass reconstruction are also discussed.

  18. Air-to-Air Missile Vector Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-22

    64 4.6. Unscented Kalman Filter Performance in Air-to-Air Missile Scor - ing Application with Continuous Velocity Dynamics Model (Tar- get...Filter Performance in Air-to-Air Missile Scor - ing Application with Continuous Velocity Dynamics Model (Tar- get Aircraft Executing a Vertical Climb...Kalman Filter Performance in Air-to-Air Missile Scor - ing Application with Continuous Velocity Dynamics Model (Tar- get Aircraft Non-maneuvering

  19. Políticas nacionales y escenarios locales. Reflexiones sobre la implementación del Programa Federal de Construcción de Viviendas en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires National Policies and Local Scenarios. Reflections on the implementation of the Federal Housing Program in the City of Buenos Aires As políticas nacionais e os cenários locais. Reflexões sobre a implementação do Programa Federal de Habitação na cidade de Buenos Aires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ostuni

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available ResumenEste trabajo propone indagar acerca de la cuestión de la vivienda construida por el sector público en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, utilizando como eje el actual Programa Federal de Construcción de Viviendas, lanzado en el año 2004. Se trata de una política de alcance nacional llevada a cabo por la Subsecretaría de Desarrollo Urbano y Vivienda de la Nación, dependiente del Ministerio de Infraestructura y Planificación Federal. El interés en atender al programa aludido se explica por tratarse de la política habitacional de mayor magnitud en décadas. A priori, podría implicar un cambio en el rol del Estado en relación con los problemas habitacionales, traducido en una importante asignación de recursos económicos y técnicos para afrontar la cuestión. El artículo expresa el proceso de investigación concretado en una tesis de maestría, y en su actual continuación — y ampliación — en una tesis doctoral.AbstractThis work proposes an inquiry on housing built by the public sector in the city of Buenos Aires, using the current Federal Program for Housing Development launched in 2004, as its core. This program is a nation-wide policy carried out by the Urban Development and Housing Undersecretary’s Office, which depends on the Ministry of Infrastructure and Federal Planning. The author’s interest on this subject comes from the idea of it being the housing policy with the highest impact of the last decades. A priori, it could entail a change of the State’s role in relation with housing problems, transformed in an important assignment of economic and technical resources in order to face the situation. This speech exposes the investigation process that was concreted in a Masters thesis and that still continues as a Doctoral Thesis.ResumoEste artigo pretende indagar sobre a questão da habitação construída pelo estado na Cidade de Buenos Aires, fazendo um análise do Programa Federal de Habitação, lançado no ano de

  20. Impact of Ambient Air Pollution on Public Health under Various Traffic Policies in Shanghai,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHAN-GHONG CHEN; HAI-DONG KAN; CHENG HUANG; LI LI; YUN-HUI ZHANG; REN-JIE CHEN; BING-HENG CHEN

    2009-01-01

    Objective To investigate the potential impact of ambient air pollution on public health under various traffic policies in Shanghai. Methods The exposure level of Shanghai residents to air pollution under various planned traffic scenarios was estimated,and the public health impact was assessed using concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiological studies. Results Our results showed that ambient air pollution in relation to traffic scenarios had a significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents.Compared with the base case scenario,implementation of various traffic scenarios could prevent 759-1574,1885-2420,and 2277-2650 PM10-related avoidable deaths (mean-value) in 2010,2015,and 2020,respectively.It could also decrease the incidence of several relevant diseases. Conclusion Our findings emphasize the need to consider air pollution-related health effects as an important impact of traffic policy in Shanghai.

  1. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  2. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  3. Adobe AIR 15 Cookbook Solutions and Examples for Rich Internet Application Developers

    CERN Document Server

    Tucker, David; DeWeggheleire, Koen

    2008-01-01

    The hands-on recipes in this cookbook help you solve a variety of tasks and scenarios often encountered when using Adobe AIR to build Rich Internet Applications for the desktop. Thoroughly vetted by Adobe's AIR development team, Adobe AIR 1.5 Cookbook addresses fundamentals, best practices, and more. If you want to learn the nuances of Adobe AIR to build innovative applications, this is the book you've been waiting for.

  4. R9 Air Districts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Region 9 Air Districts layer is a compilation of polygons representing the California Air Pollution Control and Air Quality Management Districts, Arizona Air...

  5. AirData

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The AirData site provides access to yearly summaries of United States air pollution data, taken from EPA's air pollution databases. AirData has information about...

  6. California Air Basins

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Air ResourcesCalifornia Air Resources BoardThe following datasets are from the California Air Resources Board: * arb_california_airbasins - California Air BasinsThe...

  7. EN EL AIRE / In the air

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés López Fernández

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN En el aire es un viaje a la primera mitad del siglo XX que nos tratará de acercar la frescura y oportunidad de las calles corredor y los jardines en la ciudad vertical. Se inicia en 1909 en Nueva York, con la publicación por la revista Life de La Torre del Globo, se acerca al Inmueble-Villas y al Plan Obus para Argel de Le Corbusier, y finaliza en 1952 con el proyecto para el conjunto residencial de Golden Lane en Londres de A. y P. Smithson. Fragmentos para la ciudad vertical que se construía sobre papel, tras el espejo, paralela en el tiempo, pero muy distinta a la ciudad real, con el objetivo entre otros de integrar arquitectura y naturaleza. Esas propuestas siguen teniendo hoy un gran valor, en un panorama en que el espacio público ligado a la vivienda colectiva, prácticamente ha desaparecido, y el esfuerzo que se demanda al arquitecto se centra, en tejer a modo de encaje de bolillos, una fachada que envuelva un programa de vivienda, funcional y espacialmente obsoleto.SUMMARY In the air, is a journey to the first half of the twentieth century that will try to bring us to the freshness and opportunity of the corridor streets and gardens in the vertical city. It begins in 1909 in New York, with the publication in Life magazine of the Globe Tower, it approaches the Immeubles-Villas and Plan Obus for Algiers by Le Corbusier, and ends in 1952 with the project for the Golden Lane Estate residential complex in London, by A. and P. Smithson. Fragments for the vertical city that was constructed on paper, behind the mirror, parallel in time, but was very different from the real city, with the aim, inter alia, of integrating architecture and nature. These proposals continue to have great value today, in a scenario where the public space linked to the collective home has virtually disappeared, and the effort that is demanded of the architect focuses on weaving a facade like bobbin lace around a functionally and spatially obsolete housing

  8. Post stapedotomy aviation: A changing scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renu Rajguru

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aeromedical implications of stapedotomy like rapid barometric changes and G forces are generally thought to put an end to the aviation career of an aviator. Aviation industry has grown tremendously in the last few decades, and aviation now is not only occupational but also recreational. The Indian Military Aviation rules state that, "Stapedectomy cases will be assessed permanently unfit for flying duties. These cases will be cautioned against flying in an unpressurised aircraft." The basis of this is the aeromedical concerns associated with stapedotomy as clinical conditions which are of minor significance on the ground may become aggravated in the air. With an ever expanding civil and military aviation industry, the number of aviators who have undergone stapedotomy has also increased. Though grounding the aircrew is the safest option, but if medical certification is denied to all, then the majority who can fly safely will also be excluded, thus denying the organization of its trained resources. This paper discusses post otosclerosis and post stapedotomy aeromedical concerns, reviews existing literature concerning post stapedotomy aviation and various post stapedotomy aviation policies.

  9. Climate change scenarios and technology transfer protocols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen PSI, CH-5232 (Switzerland)

    2011-02-15

    We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. (author)

  10. Post stapedotomy aviation: A changing scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajguru, Renu

    2014-01-01

    Aeromedical implications of stapedotomy like rapid barometric changes and G forces are generally thought to put an end to the aviation career of an aviator. Aviation industry has grown tremendously in the last few decades, and aviation now is not only occupational but also recreational. The Indian Military Aviation rules state that, "Stapedectomy cases will be assessed permanently unfit for flying duties. These cases will be cautioned against flying in an unpressurised aircraft." The basis of this is the aeromedical concerns associated with stapedotomy as clinical conditions which are of minor significance on the ground may become aggravated in the air. With an ever expanding civil and military aviation industry, the number of aviators who have undergone stapedotomy has also increased. Though grounding the aircrew is the safest option, but if medical certification is denied to all, then the majority who can fly safely will also be excluded, thus denying the organization of its trained resources. This paper discusses post otosclerosis and post stapedotomy aeromedical concerns, reviews existing literature concerning post stapedotomy aviation and various post stapedotomy aviation policies.

  11. A task analysis of pier side ship-handling for virtual environment ship-handling simulator scenario development

    OpenAIRE

    Grassi, Charles R.

    2000-01-01

    Approved for public release: distribution is unlimited Researchers at the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Divisions (NAWCTSD) in Orlando, FL have developed a testbed for the Conning Officer Virtual Environment (COVE) Ship-handling simulator. The purpose of this task analysis was to provide a workable document that they could use in the development of pier side ship-handling scenarios for their simulator. The task analysis not only identified the general procedures and methodologi...

  12. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edeling, W.N., E-mail: W.N.Edeling@tudelft.nl [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands); Cinnella, P., E-mail: P.Cinnella@ensam.eu [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Dwight, R.P., E-mail: R.P.Dwight@tudelft.nl [Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  13. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  14. Effect analysis of transient scenarios for successful water management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.; Deursen, van W.; Beek, van E.; Beersma, J.; Erdbrink, C.D.; Os, van A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current a

  15. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård;

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...

  16. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  17. Safety restraint systems in heavy truck rollover scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaats, P.M.A.; Coo, P.J.A. de

    2003-01-01

    Safety restraint systems have been widely applied in the passenger car industry. The heavy truck industry has followed along, integrating the seat belts in the seat system. The effectiveness of seat belts, in particular in rollover scenarios, was studied for a number of heavy truck rollover scenario

  18. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario li

  19. Scenario building as a process and tool in urban governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Khan; L. Miranda Sara; J. Sydenstricker-Neto; C. Sutherland; M. Hordijk

    2015-01-01

    Scenario building and related analysis is useful in several fields, ranging from military and business planning to its more recent applications in addressing global challenges such as climate change or economic crises. This chapter provides an overview of scenario building in urban governance. It in

  20. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  1. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  2. Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Nijkamp, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various exist

  3. An Approach to Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an operation-oriented approach for traffic management scenario generation, analysis and evaluation. We start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and s

  4. Accounting for climate and air quality damages in future U.S. electricity generation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kristen E; Henze, Daven K; Milford, Jana B

    2013-04-02

    The EPA-MARKAL model of the U.S. electricity sector is used to examine how imposing emissions fees based on estimated health and environmental damages might change electricity generation. Fees are imposed on life-cycle emissions of SO(2), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), particulate matter, and greenhouse gases (GHG) from 2015 through 2055. Changes in electricity production, fuel type, emissions controls, and emissions produced under various fees are examined. A shift in fuels used for electricity production results from $30/ton CO(2)-equivalent GHG fees or from criteria pollutant fees set at the higher-end of the range of published damage estimates, but not from criteria pollutant fees based on low or midrange damage estimates. With midrange criteria pollutant fees assessed, SO(2) and NOx emissions are lower than the business as usual case (by 52% and 10%, respectively), with larger differences in the western U.S. than in the eastern U.S. GHG emissions are not significantly impacted by midrange criteria pollutant fees alone; conversely, with only GHG fees, NO(x) emissions are reduced by up to 11%, yet SO(2) emissions are slightly higher than in the business as usual case. Therefore, fees on both GHG and criteria pollutants may be needed to achieve significant reductions in both sets of pollutants.

  5. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A. [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N.O. [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G. de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  6. Air Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-03-01

    undoubtedly begat the shield; poisonous gases were countered by the mask. Surely men on the surface of the earth will not have to submit to violent air attack...properties, production methods and cost of helium are given in “Balloon and Airship Gases ,” a volume of the Ronald Aeronautic Library. 5 More complete...becomes and more inse - cure. We shall see later that even some of the men who were advancing in the path prescribed by the principle of mass

  7. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  8. Wireless Sensor Networks: Performance Analysis in Indoor Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks in indoor scenarios. Most of the considered networks are formed by nodes using the Zigbee communication protocol. For comparison, we also analyze networks based on the proprietary standard Z-Wave. Two main groups of network scenarios are proposed: (i scenarios with direct transmissions between the remote nodes and the network coordinator, and (ii scenarios with routers, which relay the packets between the remote nodes and the coordinator. The sensor networks of interest are evaluated considering different performance metrics. In particular, we show how the received signal strength indication (RSSI behaves in the considered scenarios. Then, the network behavior is characterized in terms of end-to-end delay and throughput. In order to confirm the experiments, analytical and simulation results are also derived.

  9. A Sustainable Energy Scenario for the United States: Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessa Meyers

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario depicting life in the United States in the year 2050. The scenario is designed to achieve energy sustainability: fossil fuels and corn ethanol have been replaced by other sustainable and inexhaustible energy sources. The scenario describes the disappearance of the suburbs, replaced by a mix of high density urban centers and low density eco-communities. A suite of advanced technologies and significant social changes underpin the scenario. Analysis of the energy implications inherent in the scenario suggest that total US energy consumption would be around 100 quads in 2050, approximately the same as in the year 2010 despite a forecasted population increase of 130 million.

  10. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  11. Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, C.E.; James, B.D.; Lomax, F.D. Jr. [Directed Technologies, Inc., Arlington, VA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.

  12. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

    2016-09-01

    We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites.

  13. The Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS): a Tool to Suppport the Dialogue between Science and Policy on Scenario Development; Version 1

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk MM; Janssen MA; MNV

    1997-01-01

    Om lange termijn beleidsopties voor voor klimaatverandering te verkennen is er behoefte aan de ontwikkeling en evaluatie van lange termijn emissie scenario's. Om beleidsrelevant te zijn moet bij de scenario's een onderscheid gemaakt worden tussen wereldregio's op basis van hun ont

  14. Influence of compaction on chloride ingress

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zlopasa, J.

    2012-01-01

    Experiences from practice show the need for more of an understanding and optimization of the compaction process in order to design a more durable concrete structure. Local variations in compaction are very often the reason for initiation of local damage and initiation of chloride induced corrosion.

  15. Air quality assessment of low emission zones in Copenhagen. [Denmark]; Luftkvalitetsvurdering af ren-luftzone i Koebenhavn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solvang Jensen, S.; Ketzel, M.; Brandt, J.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.

    2012-09-15

    According to the government agreement from 2011 improved low emission zones have been identified as a measure to improve the air quality in greater Danish cities, and to ensure compliance with air quality limit values for NO{sub 2} of 40 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as an annual mean. The limit value is violated at H.C. Andersens Boulevard in Copenhagen which is one of the busiest urban streets in Denmark and a fixed air quality monitor station is also located in the street. Air quality model calculations also shows that some other busy streets in Copenhagen violate the annual air quality limit values for NO{sub 2}. The objective of the project is to assess the impacts of a number of improved low emission zone measures in Copenhagen regarding emissions and air quality with focus on NO{sub 2}. The impact assessment of different scenarios includes assessment of emissions and air quality. The assessment is carried out in great details for NO{sub 2} and to a lesser degree for PM exhaust, PM{sub 2.5} and PM{sub 10}. Since air quality assessment is resource demanding only the main scenarios are carried out with the full air quality model whereas the air quality of the scenario variants are assessed based on regression analysis between emissions and air quality in scenarios calculated with the full air quality model. (LN)

  16. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO{sub 2} reduction in the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Kevin L. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Mander, Sarah L. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)], E-mail: s.mander@manchester.ac.uk; Bows, Alice; Shackley, Simon [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Agnolucci, Paolo [Policy Studies Institute, London (United Kingdom); Ekins, Paul [Kings College, London (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO{sub 2} emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO{sub 2} emissions is achievable, even when all CO{sub 2} sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria.

  17. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios. Part 2. Scenarios for a 60% CO{sub 2} reduction in the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Kevin L.; Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Shackley, Simon [The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Agnolucci, Paolo [The Policy Studies Institute, London (United Kingdom); Ekins, Paul [Kings College, London (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO{sub 2} emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO{sub 2} emissions is achievable, even when all CO{sub 2} sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria. (author)

  18. AIR QUALITY IMPACTS OF LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS IN THE SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN OF CALIFORNIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carerras-Sospedra, Marc; Brouwer, Jack; Dabdub, Donald; Lunden, Melissa; Singer, Brett

    2011-07-01

    The effects of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on pollutant emission inventories and air quality in the South Coast Air Basin of California were evaluated using recent LNG emission measurements by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), and with a state-of-the-art air quality model. Pollutant emissions can be affected by LNG owing to differences in composition and physical properties, including the Wobbe index, a measure of energy delivery rate. This analysis uses LNG distribution scenarios developed by modeling Southern California gas flows, including supplies from the LNG receiving terminal in Baja California, Mexico. Based on these scenarios, the projected penetratino of LNG in the South Coast Air Basin is expected to be limited. In addition, the increased Wobbe index of delivered gas (resulting from mixtures of LNG and conventional gas supplies) is expected to cause increases smaller than 0.05 percent in overall (area-wide) emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx). BAsed on the photochemical state of the South Coast Air Basin, any increase in NOx is expected to cause an increase in the highest local ozone concentrations, and this is reflected in model results. However, the magnitude of the increase is well below the generally accepted accuracy of the model and would not be discernible with the existing monitoring network. Modeling of hypothetical scenarios indicates that discernible changes to ambient ozone and particulate matter concentrations would occur only at LNG distribution rates that are not achievable with current or planned infrastructure and with Wobbe index vlaues that exceed current gas quality tariffs. Results of these hypothetical scenarios are presented for consideration of any proposed substantial expansion of LNG supply infrastructure in Southern California.

  19. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  20. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1.

  1. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  2. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  3. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  4. Changes in the spatial distribution of O3, NO and CO in different vehicular emission scenarios in Sao Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiquetto, J. B.; Silva, M. E. S.; Ynoue, R.; Cabral-Miranda, W.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric pollution in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) has been investigated using the WRF/Chem model version 3.2.1 in a 1X1 km emission grid. Based on a local emission inventory, a control simulation (CTRL) was performed for the period 28/01-02/02/2014, during a summer season characterized by intense solar radiation and temperature positive anomalies, which resulted in high pollutant concentration. Sensitivity tests were performed using different vehicular emission scenarios and CTRL. In scenario A), emissions were removed from a region which encompasses almost the entire urban area of the SPMA, only roads in the outskirts had regular emissions. Comparing scenario A) to CTRL, sharp decreases in CO, NO and NO2 were observed inside the SPMA. Ozone decreased slighlty during the day, probably due to the significant absence of precursor emissions which form ozone during the day in the presence of sunlight. On the other hand, ozone concentrations increased at night, influenced by the absence of ozone-consuming precursors inside the densely urbanized SPMA, in the absence of sunlight. In scenario B), we removed emissions from a smaller area, corresponding roughly to an expanded downtown area (where a few traffic restriction laws operate). The goal of this scenario was to observe possible impacts if more strict traffic restriction laws were implemented. In scenario C), emissions were decreased by 50% in the same area, in an attempt to characterize concentrations in an urban toll scenario. Results from scenarios B) and C) showed a decrease in NO, NO2 and CO, but less intense than in scenario A). On the other hand, a higher increase in ozone was detected both during the day and at night compared to the CTRL and scenario A). These results suggests that, along with lower concentrations of precursor gases and CO, higher ozone concentrations are likely to be expected in downtown Sao Paulo if more severe traffic restriction laws should be implemented. This is concerning

  5. Off-site air monitoring following methyl bromide chamber and building fumigations and evaluation of the ISCST air dispersion model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barry, T.; Swgawa, R.; Wofford, P. [Cal EPA, Sacramento, CA (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The Department of Pesticide Regulation`s preliminary risk characterization of methyl bromide indicated an inadequate margin of safety for several exposure scenarios. Characterization of the air concentrations associated with common methyl bromide use patterns was necessary to determine specific scenarios that result in an unacceptable margin of safety. Field monitoring data were used in conjunction with the Industrial Source Complex, Short Tenn (ISCST) air dispersion model to characterize air concentrations associated with various types of methyl bromide applications. Chamber and building fumigations were monitored and modelled. For each fumigation the emission rates, chamber or building specifications and on-site meteorological data were input into the ISCST model. The model predicted concentrations were compared to measured air concentrations. The concentrations predicted by the ISCST model reflect both the pattern and magnitude of the measured concentrations. Required buffer zones were calculated using the ISCST output.

  6. Scenarios for the transportation sector's energy consumption in Denmark. Focus on road transport. Documentation report; Scenarier for transportsektorens energiforbrug i Danmark. Med fokus paa vejtransporten. Dokumentationsrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hethey, J.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A.; Lindboe, H.H.

    2011-05-15

    The purpose of this project was to make a number of predictions of how the Danish energy consumption for transport purposes may evolve until 2035. The analyses include the total energy consumption for passenger and freight transport and transportation-related energy consumption in the production industry. Air and maritime transport and freight trains are not considered in the analyses. Five scenarios have been calculated, including a reference scenario, three technology scenarios (efficiency, electric vehicle, a biofuel scenario), and a combined scenario. For all scenarios, the development of fuel consumption is calculated and CO{sub 2} emissions both locally and totally are presented. The analyses show that the total energy consumption and total CO{sub 2} emission had a peak in 2007, after which the already registered decrease is likely to continue. This continued decline happens in spite of continued growth in transport services, primarily due to the assumed and expected development of more fuel-efficient cars. (ln)

  7. Congestion transition in air traffic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monechi, Bernardo; Servedio, Vito D P; Loreto, Vittorio

    2015-01-01

    Air Transportation represents a very interesting example of a complex techno-social system whose importance has considerably grown in time and whose management requires a careful understanding of the subtle interplay between technological infrastructure and human behavior. Despite the competition with other transportation systems, a growth of air traffic is still foreseen in Europe for the next years. The increase of traffic load could bring the current Air Traffic Network above its capacity limits so that safety standards and performances might not be guaranteed anymore. Lacking the possibility of a direct investigation of this scenario, we resort to computer simulations in order to quantify the disruptive potential of an increase in traffic load. To this end we model the Air Transportation system as a complex dynamical network of flights controlled by humans who have to solve potentially dangerous conflicts by redirecting aircraft trajectories. The model is driven and validated through historical data of flight schedules in a European national airspace. While correctly reproducing actual statistics of the Air Transportation system, e.g., the distribution of delays, the model allows for theoretical predictions. Upon an increase of the traffic load injected in the system, the model predicts a transition from a phase in which all conflicts can be successfully resolved, to a phase in which many conflicts cannot be resolved anymore. We highlight how the current flight density of the Air Transportation system is well below the transition, provided that controllers make use of a special re-routing procedure. While the congestion transition displays a universal scaling behavior, its threshold depends on the conflict solving strategy adopted. Finally, the generality of the modeling scheme introduced makes it a flexible general tool to simulate and control Air Transportation systems in realistic and synthetic scenarios.

  8. Full steady state LH scenarios in Tore Supra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazarian-Vibert, F.; Litaudon, X.; Arslanbekov, R.; Hoang, G.T.; Moreau, D.; Peysson, Y. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d`Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee

    1995-12-31

    Lower Hybrid discharge have been realised in Tore Supra using feed-back control of the primary circuit voltage such that the loop voltage was maintained exactly to zero near the plasma surface. This new scenario allows the plasma current to float and quickly reach an equilibrium value determined by the current drive efficiency and Lower Hybrid power. Recent experimental results show that, with the new constant flux scenario the coupled plasma and primary currents reach a steady state in less than 10 s which is a good agreement with theoretical expectations. A complete analysis of this scenario is presented. (authors). 8 refs., 3 figs.

  9. Primordial Gravitational Waves Induced by Magnetic Fields in Ekpyrotic Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Asuka

    2016-01-01

    Both inflationary and ekpyrotic scenarios can account for the origin of the large scale structure of the universe. It is often said that detecting primordial gravitational waves is the key to distinguish both scenarios. We show that this is not true if the gauge kinetic function is present in the ekpyrotic scenario. In fact, primordial gravitational waves sourced by the gauge field can be produced in an ekpyrotic universe. We also study scalar fluctuations sourced by the gauge field and show that it is negligible compared to primordial gravitational waves. This comes from the fact that the fast roll condition holds in ekpyrotic models.

  10. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking......We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...

  11. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  12. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-15

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www

  13. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  14. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  15. Air filtration and indoor air quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bekö, Gabriel

    2006-01-01

    decent ventilation and air cleaning/air filtration, high indoor air quality cannot be accomplished. The need for effective air filtration has increased with increasing evidence on the hazardous effects of fine particles. Moreover, the air contains gaseous pollutants, removal of which requires various air....... These contradictions should motivate manufacturers and researchers to develop new efficient filtration techniques and/or improve the existing ones. Development of low polluting filtration techniques, which are at the same time easy and inexpensive to maintain is the way forward in the future....

  16. Evaluation of the Operator Protection Factors Offered by Positive Pressure Air Suits against Airborne Microbiological Challenge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jackie A. Steward

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Laboratories throughout the world that perform work with Risk Group 4 Pathogens generally adopt one of two approaches within BSL-4 environments: either the use of positive pressure air-fed suits or using Class III microbiological safety cabinets and isolators for animal work. Within the UK at present, all laboratories working with Risk Group 4 agents adopt the use of Class III microbiological safety cabinet lines and isolators. Operator protection factors for the use of microbiological safety cabinets and isolators are available however; there is limited published data on the operator protection factors afforded by the use of positive pressure suits. This study evaluated the operator protection factors provided by positive pressure air suits against a realistic airborne microbiological challenge. The suits were tested, both intact and with their integrity compromised, on an animated mannequin within a stainless steel exposure chamber. The suits gave operator protection in all tests with an intact suit and with a cut in the leg. When compromised by a cut in the glove, a very small ingress of the challenge was seen as far as the wrist. This is likely to be due to the low airflow in the gloves of the suit. In all cases no microbiological penetration of the respiratory tract was observed. These data provide evidence on which to base safety protocols for use of positive pressure suits within high containment laboratories.

  17. Evaluation of the operator protection factors offered by positive pressure air suits against airborne microbiological challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward, Jackie A; Lever, Mark S

    2012-08-01

    Laboratories throughout the world that perform work with Risk Group 4 Pathogens generally adopt one of two approaches within BSL-4 environments: either the use of positive pressure air-fed suits or using Class III microbiological safety cabinets and isolators for animal work. Within the UK at present, all laboratories working with Risk Group 4 agents adopt the use of Class III microbiological safety cabinet lines and isolators. Operator protection factors for the use of microbiological safety cabinets and isolators are available however; there is limited published data on the operator protection factors afforded by the use of positive pressure suits. This study evaluated the operator protection factors provided by positive pressure air suits against a realistic airborne microbiological challenge. The suits were tested, both intact and with their integrity compromised, on an animated mannequin within a stainless steel exposure chamber. The suits gave operator protection in all tests with an intact suit and with a cut in the leg. When compromised by a cut in the glove, a very small ingress of the challenge was seen as far as the wrist. This is likely to be due to the low airflow in the gloves of the suit. In all cases no microbiological penetration of the respiratory tract was observed. These data provide evidence on which to base safety protocols for use of positive pressure suits within high containment laboratories.

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Soichiro; Araki; Itaru; Nishioka; Yoshihiko; Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  20. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guoying Zhang; Soichiro Araki; Itaru Nishioka; Yoshihiko Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China rin g networks to ASON mesh networks . In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.