WorldWideScience

Sample records for agent-based biological simulation

  1. Automated multi-objective calibration of biological agent-based simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Mark N; Alden, Kieran; Rose, Louis M; Timmis, Jon

    2016-09-01

    Computational agent-based simulation (ABS) is increasingly used to complement laboratory techniques in advancing our understanding of biological systems. Calibration, the identification of parameter values that align simulation with biological behaviours, becomes challenging as increasingly complex biological domains are simulated. Complex domains cannot be characterized by single metrics alone, rendering simulation calibration a fundamentally multi-metric optimization problem that typical calibration techniques cannot handle. Yet calibration is an essential activity in simulation-based science; the baseline calibration forms a control for subsequent experimentation and hence is fundamental in the interpretation of results. Here, we develop and showcase a method, built around multi-objective optimization, for calibrating ABSs against complex target behaviours requiring several metrics (termed objectives) to characterize. Multi-objective calibration (MOC) delivers those sets of parameter values representing optimal trade-offs in simulation performance against each metric, in the form of a Pareto front. We use MOC to calibrate a well-understood immunological simulation against both established a priori and previously unestablished target behaviours. Furthermore, we show that simulation-borne conclusions are broadly, but not entirely, robust to adopting baseline parameter values from different extremes of the Pareto front, highlighting the importance of MOC's identification of numerous calibration solutions. We devise a method for detecting overfitting in a multi-objective context, not previously possible, used to save computational effort by terminating MOC when no improved solutions will be found. MOC can significantly impact biological simulation, adding rigour to and speeding up an otherwise time-consuming calibration process and highlighting inappropriate biological capture by simulations that cannot be well calibrated. As such, it produces more accurate

  2. Biophysically realistic filament bending dynamics in agent-based biological simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberts, Jonathan B

    2009-01-01

    An appealing tool for study of the complex biological behaviors that can emerge from networks of simple molecular interactions is an agent-based, computational simulation that explicitly tracks small-scale local interactions--following thousands to millions of states through time. For many critical cell processes (e.g. cytokinetic furrow specification, nuclear centration, cytokinesis), the flexible nature of cytoskeletal filaments is likely to be critical. Any computer model that hopes to explain the complex emergent behaviors in these processes therefore needs to encode filament flexibility in a realistic manner. Here I present a numerically convenient and biophysically realistic method for modeling cytoskeletal filament flexibility in silico. Each cytoskeletal filament is represented by a series of rigid segments linked end-to-end in series with a variable attachment point for the translational elastic element. This connection scheme allows an empirically tuning, for a wide range of segment sizes, viscosities, and time-steps, that endows any filament species with the experimentally observed (or theoretically expected) static force deflection, relaxation time-constant, and thermal writhing motions. I additionally employ a unique pair of elastic elements--one representing the axial and the other the bending rigidity- that formulate the restoring force in terms of single time-step constraint resolution. This method is highly local -adjacent rigid segments of a filament only interact with one another through constraint forces-and is thus well-suited to simulations in which arbitrary additional forces (e.g. those representing interactions of a filament with other bodies or cross-links / entanglements between filaments) may be present. Implementation in code is straightforward; Java source code is available at www.celldynamics.org.

  3. Biophysically realistic filament bending dynamics in agent-based biological simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan B Alberts

    Full Text Available An appealing tool for study of the complex biological behaviors that can emerge from networks of simple molecular interactions is an agent-based, computational simulation that explicitly tracks small-scale local interactions--following thousands to millions of states through time. For many critical cell processes (e.g. cytokinetic furrow specification, nuclear centration, cytokinesis, the flexible nature of cytoskeletal filaments is likely to be critical. Any computer model that hopes to explain the complex emergent behaviors in these processes therefore needs to encode filament flexibility in a realistic manner. Here I present a numerically convenient and biophysically realistic method for modeling cytoskeletal filament flexibility in silico. Each cytoskeletal filament is represented by a series of rigid segments linked end-to-end in series with a variable attachment point for the translational elastic element. This connection scheme allows an empirically tuning, for a wide range of segment sizes, viscosities, and time-steps, that endows any filament species with the experimentally observed (or theoretically expected static force deflection, relaxation time-constant, and thermal writhing motions. I additionally employ a unique pair of elastic elements--one representing the axial and the other the bending rigidity- that formulate the restoring force in terms of single time-step constraint resolution. This method is highly local -adjacent rigid segments of a filament only interact with one another through constraint forces-and is thus well-suited to simulations in which arbitrary additional forces (e.g. those representing interactions of a filament with other bodies or cross-links / entanglements between filaments may be present. Implementation in code is straightforward; Java source code is available at www.celldynamics.org.

  4. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper it is shown how animal behaviour can be simulated in an agent-based manner. Different models are shown for different types of behaviour, varying from purely reactive behaviour to pro-active, social and adaptive behaviour. The compositional development method for multi-agent systems DESIRE and its software environment supports the conceptual and detailed design, and execution of these models. Experiments reported in the literature on animal behaviour have been simulated for a num...

  5. Agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Operational Research (OR) deals with the use of advanced analytical methods to support better decision-making. It is multidisciplinary with strong links to management science, decision science, computer science and many application areas such as engineering, manufacturing, commerce and healthcare. In the study of emergent behaviour in complex adaptive systems, Agent-based Modelling & Simulation (ABMS) is being used in many different domains such as healthcare, energy, evacuation, commerce, manufacturing and defense. This collection of articles presents a convenient introduction to ABMS with pa

  6. An Agent-Based Monetary Production Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2006-01-01

    An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable......An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable...

  7. Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S

    2015-02-01

    There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models.

  8. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2001-01-01

    In the biological literature on animal behaviour, in addition to real experiments and field studies, also simulation experiments are a useful source of progress. Often specific mathematical modelling techniques are adopted and directly implemented in a programming language. Modelling more complex ag

  9. Agent-Based Simulations for Project Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J. Chris; Sholtes, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Currently, the most common approach used in project planning tools is the Critical Path Method (CPM). While this method was a great improvement over the basic Gantt chart technique being used at the time, it now suffers from three primary flaws: (1) task duration is an input, (2) productivity impacts are not considered , and (3) management corrective actions are not included. Today, computers have exceptional computational power to handle complex simulations of task e)(eculion and project management activities (e.g ., dynamically changing the number of resources assigned to a task when it is behind schedule). Through research under a Department of Defense contract, the author and the ViaSim team have developed a project simulation tool that enables more realistic cost and schedule estimates by using a resource-based model that literally turns the current duration-based CPM approach "on its head." The approach represents a fundamental paradigm shift in estimating projects, managing schedules, and reducing risk through innovative predictive techniques.

  10. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  11. MAIA: a framework for developing agent-based social simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghorbani, Amineh; Dignum, Virginia; Bots, Pieter; Dijkema, Gerhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we introduce and motivate a conceptualization framework for agent-based social simulation, MAIA: Modelling Agent systems based on Institutional Analysis. The MAIA framework is based on Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework, and provides an extensive set of modelling

  12. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  13. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  14. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  15. Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Vaněk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent based simulation platform is introduced that focuses on legitimate and illegitimate aspects of maritime traffic, mainly on intercontinental transport through piracy afflicted areas. The extensible architecture presented here comprises several modules controlling the simulation and the life-cycle of the agents, analyzing the simulation output and visualizing the entire simulated domain. The simulation control module is initialized by various configuration scenarios to simulate various real-world situations, such as a pirate ambush, coordinated transit through a transport corridor, or coastal fishing and local traffic. The environmental model provides a rich set of inputs for agents that use the geo-spatial data and the vessel operational characteristics for their reasoning. The agent behavior model based on finite state machines together with planning algorithms allows complex expression of agent behavior, so the resulting simulation output can serve as a substitution for real world data from the maritime domain.

  16. Tutorial on agent-based modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of autonomous, interacting agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to support their research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS is a third way of doing science besides deductive and inductive reasoning. Computational advances have made possible a growing number of agent-based applications in a variety of fields. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market and supply chains, to predicting the spread of epidemics and the threat of bio-warfare, from modeling consumer behavior to understanding the fall of ancient civilizations, to name a few. This tutorial describes the theoretical and practical foundations of ABMS, identifies toolkits and methods for developing ABMS models, and provides some thoughts on the relationship between ABMS and traditional modeling techniques.

  17. Agent-based modeling and simulation Part 3 : desktop ABMS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2007-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of autonomous, interacting agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to support their research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS 'is a third way of doing science,' in addition to traditional deductive and inductive reasoning (Axelrod 1997b). Computational advances have made possible a growing number of agent-based models across a variety of application domains. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market, supply chains, and consumer markets, to predicting the spread of epidemics, the threat of bio-warfare, and the factors responsible for the fall of ancient civilizations. This tutorial describes the theoretical and practical foundations of ABMS, identifies toolkits and methods for developing agent models, and illustrates the development of a simple agent-based model of shopper behavior using spreadsheets.

  18. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Genoese, M.; Moest, D. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion

    2007-07-01

    Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to con-sider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appear-ance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Fur-thermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instru-ments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. (orig.)

  19. Return Migration After Brain Drain: An Agent Based Simulation Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Biondo, A E; Rapisarda, A

    2012-01-01

    The Brain Drain phenomenon is particularly heterogeneous and is characterized by peculiar specifications. It influences the economic fundamentals of both the country of origin and the host one in terms of human capital accumulation. Here, the brain drain is considered from a microeconomic perspective: more precisely we focus on the individual rational decision to return, referring it to the social capital owned by the worker. The presented model, restricted to the case of academic personnel, compares utility levels to justify agent's migration conduct and to simulate several scenarios with a NetLogo agent based model. In particular, we developed a simulation framework based on two fundamental individual features, i.e. risk aversion and initial expectation, which characterize the dynamics of different agents according to the random evolution of their personal social networks. Our main result is that, according to the value of risk aversion and initial expectation, the probability of return migration depends on...

  20. Using Crowdsourced Geodata for Agent-Based Indoor Evacuation Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Zipf

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Crowdsourced geodata has been proven to be a rich and major data source for environmental simulations and analysis, as well as the visualization of spatial phenomena. With the increasing size and complexity of public buildings, such as universities or hotels, there is also an increasing demand for information about indoor spaces. Trying to stimulate this growing demand, both researchers and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI communities envision to extend established communities towards indoors. It has already been showcased that VGI from OpenStreetMap (OSM can be utilized for different applications in Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs as well as for simple shortest path computations inside buildings. The here presented research now tries to utilize crowdsourced indoor geodata for more complex indoor routing scenarios of multiple users. Essentially, it will be investigated if, and to what extent, the available data can be utilized for performing indoor evacuation simulations with the simulation framework MATSim. That is, this paper investigates the suitability of crowdsourced indoor information from OSM (IndoorOSM for evacuation simulations. Additionally, the applicability of MATSim for agent-based indoor evacuation simulations is conducted. The paper discusses the automatic generation simulation-related data, and provides experimental results for two different evacuation scenarios. Furthermore, limitations of the IndoorOSM data and the MATSim framework for indoor evacuation simulations are elaborated and discussed.

  1. Capacity Analysis for Parallel Runway through Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parallel runway is the mainstream structure of China hub airport, runway is often the bottleneck of an airport, and the evaluation of its capacity is of great importance to airport management. This study outlines a model, multiagent architecture, implementation approach, and software prototype of a simulation system for evaluating runway capacity. Agent Unified Modeling Language (AUML is applied to illustrate the inbound and departing procedure of planes and design the agent-based model. The model is evaluated experimentally, and the quality is studied in comparison with models, created by SIMMOD and Arena. The results seem to be highly efficient, so the method can be applied to parallel runway capacity evaluation and the model propose favorable flexibility and extensibility.

  2. A SIMULATION OF CONTRACT FARMING USING AGENT BASED MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanita Handayati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to simulate the effects of contract farming and farmer commitment to contract farming on supply chain performance by using agent based modeling as a methodology. Supply chain performance is represented by profits and service levels. The simulation results indicate that farmers should pay attention to customer requirements and plan their agricultural activities in order to fulfill these requirements. Contract farming helps farmers deal with demand and price uncertainties. We also find that farmer commitment is crucial to fulfilling contract requirements. This study contributes to this field from a conceptual as well as a practical point of view. From the conceptual point of view, our simulation results show that different levels of farmer commitment have an impact on farmer performance when implementing contract farming. From a practical point of view, the uncertainty faced by farmers and the market can be managed by implementing cultivation and harvesting scheduling, information sharing, and collective learning as ways of committing to contract farming.

  3. Agent-based modeling to simulate the dengue spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chengbin; Tao, Haiyan; Ye, Zhiwei

    2008-10-01

    In this paper, we introduce a novel method ABM in simulating the unique process for the dengue spread. Dengue is an acute infectious disease with a long history of over 200 years. Unlike the diseases that can be transmitted directly from person to person, dengue spreads through a must vector of mosquitoes. There is still no any special effective medicine and vaccine for dengue up till now. The best way to prevent dengue spread is to take precautions beforehand. Thus, it is crucial to detect and study the dynamic process of dengue spread that closely relates to human-environment interactions where Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) effectively works. The model attempts to simulate the dengue spread in a more realistic way in the bottom-up way, and to overcome the limitation of ABM, namely overlooking the influence of geographic and environmental factors. Considering the influence of environment, Aedes aegypti ecology and other epidemiological characteristics of dengue spread, ABM can be regarded as a useful way to simulate the whole process so as to disclose the essence of the evolution of dengue spread.

  4. Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazziela P Figueredo

    Full Text Available There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1 Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2 Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3 Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm.

  5. Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueredo, Grazziela P; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Owen, Markus R; Reps, Jenna; Aickelin, Uwe

    2014-01-01

    There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm.

  6. Complete agent based simulation of mini-grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez de Durana, J.M.; Barambones, O. [Univ. of the Basque Country, Vitoria (Spain). Dept. Ingeniera de Sistemas y Automatica; Kremers, E.; Viejo, P. [Karlsruhe Univ., Karlsruhe (Germany). European Inst. for Energy Research

    2009-07-01

    Most people without access to electricity live in remote and rural areas of developing countries where micro-grids have a high potential to actively participate in the electrification of such areas. Micro-grids may be fed by electricity from different renewable and conventional decentralized sources. There are several interesting hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) micro-grid applications, such as mobile equipment; autonomous equipment; small village electricity power supply; water pumping and irrigation systems; communications power supply; and mobile health emergency clinics. This paper presented a review of some of the main types of HRESs. The paper described an agent based model of a simple example of one such system, a micro-grid, oriented to designing a decentralized supervisor control. The model was implemented using AnyLogic and was primarily intended as a tool for design, development and demonstration of micro-grid control strategies. According to simulation results, the model could be used to analyze micro-grid design, operation strategies and economic benefits. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  7. Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Labiosa, William

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information

  8. Agent-based analysis of organizations : formalization and simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dignum, M.V.; Tick, C.

    2008-01-01

    Organizational effectiveness depends on many factors, including individual excellence, efficient structures, effective planning and capability to understand and match context requirements. We propose a way to model organizational performance based on a combination of formal models and agent-based si

  9. Proceedings First Workshop on Applications of Membrane computing, Concurrency and Agent-based modelling in POPulation biology

    CERN Document Server

    Milazzo, Paolo; 10.4204/EPTCS.33

    2010-01-01

    This volume contains the papers presented at the first International Workshop on Applications of Membrane Computing, Concurrency and Agent-based Modelling in Population Biology (AMCA-POP 2010) held in Jena, Germany on August 25th, 2010 as a satellite event of the 11th Conference on Membrane Computing (CMC11). The aim of the workshop is to investigate whether formal modelling and analysis techniques could be applied with profit to systems of interest for population biology and ecology. The considered modelling notations include membrane systems, Petri nets, agent-based notations, process calculi, automata-based notations, rewriting systems and cellular automata. Such notations enable the application of analysis techniques such as simulation, model checking, abstract interpretation and type systems to study systems of interest in disciplines such as population biology, ecosystem science, epidemiology, genetics, sustainability science, evolution and other disciplines in which population dynamics and interactions...

  10. A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

  11. Agent-based Social Simulation tools: Brahms and NetLogo

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sie, Rory

    2010-01-01

    Sie, R. L. L. (2010, 21 September). Agent-based Social Simulation tools: Brahms and NetLogo. Presentation at the Learning Networks Plenary, Heerlen, The Netherlands: Open University of the Netherlands.

  12. Agent-Based Simulation and Assessment of NAS Security and Safety Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The key innovation proposed here is the use of agent-based modeling and simulation to evaluate the safety of the National Airspace under crisis operations and...

  13. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E Gorochowski

    Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

  14. Agent-Based Crowd Simulation of Daily Goods Traditional Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purba D. Kusuma

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In traditional market, buyers are not only moving from one place to another, but also interacting with traders to purchase their products. When a buyer interacts with a trader, he blocks some space in the corridor. Besides, while buyers are walking, they may be attracted by non-preferred traders, though they may have preferred traders. These situations have not been covered in most existing crowd simulation models. Hence, these existing models cannot be directly implemented in traditional market environments since they mainly focus on crowd members’ movement. This research emphasizes on a crowd model that includes simplified movement and unplanned purchasing models. This model has been developed based on intelligent agent concept, where each agent represents a buyer. Two traditional markets are used for simulation in this research, namely Gedongkuning and Ngasem, in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The simulation shows that some places are visited more frequently than others. Overall, the simulation result matches the situation found in the real world.

  15. Agent-Based Simulation of Disease Spread Aboard Ship

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    humans are not contained in close quarters. Most forms of disease transmission are simulated, but not all. There are diseases spread via parasites and...agents (vector-borne), by animals ( zoonoses ), through soil, blood, or sexually transmitted diseases are not modeled here. The main modes of transmission...disease are broken down via genetic characteristics. The main groups, viruses, bacteria, fungi, and parasites , are listed below. A virus is the

  16. A Conceptual Framework for Representing Human Behavior Characteristics in a System of Systems Agent-Based Survivability Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-22

    distribution is unlimited. A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR REPRESENTING HUMAN BEHAVIOR CHARACTERISTICS IN A SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS AGENT-BASED SURVIVABILITY...27411 -0001 ABSTRACT A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR REPRESENTING HUMAN BEHAVIOR CHARACTERISTICS IN A SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS AGENT-BASED SURVIVABILITY SIMULATION...TITLE AND SUBTITLE A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR REPRESENTING HUMAN BEHAVIOR CHARACTERISTICS IN A SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS AGENT-BASED SURVIVABILITY

  17. Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

    2008-10-01

    Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

  18. PAMS - A New Collaborative Framework for Agent-Based Simulation of Complex Sysems

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen Trong, Khanh; Marilleau, Nicolas; Vinh Ho, Tuong

    2008-01-01

    International audience; Major researches in the domain of complex systems are interdisciplinary, collaborative and geographically distributed. The purpose of our work is to explore a new collaborative approach that facilitates scientist's interactions during the modelling and simulating process. The originality of the presented approach is to consider models and simulators as a board of the collaboration: a shared object manipulated by a group of scientists. Agent-based simulations are powerf...

  19. An agent-based simulation of extirpation of Ceratitis capitata applied to invasions in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoukis, Nicholas C; Hoffman, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    We present an agent-based simulation (ABS) of Ceratitis capitata ("Medfly") developed for estimating the time to extirpation of this pest in areas where quarantines and eradication treatments were immediately imposed. We use the ABS, implemented in the program MED-FOES, to study seven different outbreaks that occurred in Southern California from 2008 to 2010. Results are compared with the length of intervention and quarantine imposed by the State, based on a linear developmental model (thermal unit accumulation, or "degree-day"). MED-FOES is a useful tool for invasive species managers as it incorporates more information from the known biology of the Medfly, and includes the important feature of being demographically explicit, providing significant improvements over simple degree-day calculations. While there was general agreement between the length of quarantine by degree-day and the time to extirpation indicated by MED-FOES, the ABS suggests that the margin of safety varies among cases and that in two cases the quarantine may have been excessively long. We also examined changes in the number of individuals over time in MED-FOES and conducted a sensitivity analysis for one of the outbreaks to explore the role of various input parameters on simulation outcomes. While our implementation of the ABS in this work is motivated by C. capitata and takes extirpation as a postulate, the simulation is very flexible and can be used to study a variety of questions on the invasion biology of pest insects and methods proposed to manage or eradicate such species.

  20. Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    2015-01-01

    Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing farmer

  1. Agent-based analysis and simulation of meta-reasoning processes in strategic naval planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; Jonker, C.M.; Maanen, P.P. van; Treur, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents analysis and simulation of meta-reasoning processes based on an agent-based meta-level architecture for strategic reasoning in naval planning. The architecture was designed as a generic agent model and instantiated with decision knowledge acquired from naval domain experts and wa

  2. GAMA: multi-level and complex environment for agent-based models and simulations (demonstration)

    OpenAIRE

    Drogoul, Alexis; Amouroux, Edouard; Caillou, Philippe; Gaudou, Benoit; Grignard, Arnaud; Marilleau, Nicolas; Taillandier, Patrick; Vavaseur, Maroussia; Vo, Duc-An; Zucker, Jean-Daniel

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Agent-based models are now used in numerous application domains (ecology, social sciences, etc.) but their use is still impeded by the lack of generic yet ready-to-use tools sup- porting the design and the simulation of complex models in- tegrating multiple level of agency and realistic environments. The GAMA modeling and simulation platform is proposed to address such issues. It allows modelers to build com- plex models thanks to high-level modeling language, various ...

  3. AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION ON MARKET CONSIDERING KNOWLEDGE TRANSITION AND SOCIAL IMPACT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tieju Ma; Mina Ryoke; Yoshiteru Nakamori

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, an agent-based simulation about knowledge transition associated with social impact in market is introduced. In the simulation, the genetic algorithm is used to generate the next generation products and a dynamic social impact model is used to simulate how customers are influenced by other customers. The simulation and its results not only show some features and patterns of knowledge transition, but also explore and display some phenomena of business cultures. On the basis of the innovation model of knowledge-based economy, the transition between technical knowledge and products knowledge is discussed, and a fuzzy linear quantification model which can be used to simulate the transition is introduced.

  4. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Sánchez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  5. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Jesús M; Carrera, Álvaro; Iglesias, Carlos Á; Serrano, Emilio

    2016-08-24

    Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones) with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  6. An Agent-Based Simulation of In-Store Customer Experiences

    CERN Document Server

    Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Celia, Helen; Clegg, Christopher

    2008-01-01

    Agent-based modelling and simulation offers a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we describe the development of an agent-based simulation model, designed to help to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. We report on the current development of our simulation model which includes new features concerning the evolution of customers over time. To test some of these features we have conducted a series of experiments dealing with customer pool sizes, standard and noise reduction modes, and the spread of the word of mouth. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents offer potential for fostering sustainable organisational capabilities in the future.

  7. Agent-based simulation of building evacuation using a grid graph-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, L.; Lin, H.; Hu, M.; Che, W.

    2014-02-01

    Shifting from macroscope models to microscope models, the agent-based approach has been widely used to model crowd evacuation as more attentions are paid on individualized behaviour. Since indoor evacuation behaviour is closely related to spatial features of the building, effective representation of indoor space is essential for the simulation of building evacuation. The traditional cell-based representation has limitations in reflecting spatial structure and is not suitable for topology analysis. Aiming at incorporating powerful topology analysis functions of GIS to facilitate agent-based simulation of building evacuation, we used a grid graph-based model in this study to represent the indoor space. Such model allows us to establish an evacuation network at a micro level. Potential escape routes from each node thus could be analysed through GIS functions of network analysis considering both the spatial structure and route capacity. This would better support agent-based modelling of evacuees' behaviour including route choice and local movements. As a case study, we conducted a simulation of emergency evacuation from the second floor of an official building using Agent Analyst as the simulation platform. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method, as well as the potential of GIS in visualizing and analysing simulation results.

  8. Applying GIS and high performance agent-based simulation for managing an Old World Screwworm fly invasion of Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, M C; Kwan, P W; Sajeev, A S M

    2014-10-01

    Agent-based modelling has proven to be a promising approach for developing rich simulations for complex phenomena that provide decision support functions across a broad range of areas including biological, social and agricultural sciences. This paper demonstrates how high performance computing technologies, namely General-Purpose Computing on Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU), and commercial Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be applied to develop a national scale, agent-based simulation of an incursion of Old World Screwworm fly (OWS fly) into the Australian mainland. The development of this simulation model leverages the combination of massively data-parallel processing capabilities supported by NVidia's Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) and the advanced spatial visualisation capabilities of GIS. These technologies have enabled the implementation of an individual-based, stochastic lifecycle and dispersal algorithm for the OWS fly invasion. The simulation model draws upon a wide range of biological data as input to stochastically determine the reproduction and survival of the OWS fly through the different stages of its lifecycle and dispersal of gravid females. Through this model, a highly efficient computational platform has been developed for studying the effectiveness of control and mitigation strategies and their associated economic impact on livestock industries can be materialised.

  9. Simulating Transport and Land Use Interdependencies for Strategic Urban Planning—An Agent Based Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Huynh

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Agent based modelling has been widely accepted as a promising tool for urban planning purposes thanks to its capability to provide sophisticated insights into the social behaviours and the interdependencies that characterise urban systems. In this paper, we report on an agent based model, called TransMob, which explicitly simulates the mutual dynamics between demographic evolution, transport demands, housing needs and the eventual change in the average satisfaction of the residents of an urban area. The ability to reproduce such dynamics is a unique feature that has not been found in many of the like agent based models in the literature. TransMob, is constituted by six major modules: synthetic population, perceived liveability, travel diary assignment, traffic micro-simulator, residential location choice, and travel mode choice. TransMob is used to simulate the dynamics of a metropolitan area in South East of Sydney, Australia, in 2006 and 2011, with demographic evolution. The results are favourably compared against survey data for the area in 2011, therefore validating the capability of TransMob to reproduce the observed complexity of an urban area. We also report on the application of TransMob to simulate various hypothetical scenarios of urban planning policies. We conclude with discussions on current limitations of TransMob, which serve as suggestions for future developments.

  10. Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

  11. iCrowd: agent-based behavior modeling and crowd simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kountouriotis, Vassilios I.; Paterakis, Manolis; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    Initially designed in the context of the TASS (Total Airport Security System) FP-7 project, the Crowd Simulation platform developed by the Integrated Systems Lab of the Institute of Informatics and Telecommunications at N.C.S.R. Demokritos, has evolved into a complete domain-independent agent-based behavior simulator with an emphasis on crowd behavior and building evacuation simulation. Under continuous development, it reflects an effort to implement a modern, multithreaded, data-oriented simulation engine employing latest state-of-the-art programming technologies and paradigms. It is based on an extensible architecture that separates core services from the individual layers of agent behavior, offering a concrete simulation kernel designed for high-performance and stability. Its primary goal is to deliver an abstract platform to facilitate implementation of several Agent-Based Simulation solutions with applicability in several domains of knowledge, such as: (i) Crowd behavior simulation during [in/out] door evacuation. (ii) Non-Player Character AI for Game-oriented applications and Gamification activities. (iii) Vessel traffic modeling and simulation for Maritime Security and Surveillance applications. (iv) Urban and Highway Traffic and Transportation Simulations. (v) Social Behavior Simulation and Modeling.

  12. An agent based approach for simulating complex systems with spatial dynamicsapplication in the land use planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatimazahra BARRAMOU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this research a new agent based approach for simulating complex systems with spatial dynamics is presented. We propose architecture based on coupling between two systems: multi-agent systems and geographic information systems. We also propose a generic model of agent-oriented simulation that we will apply to the field of land use planning. In fact, simulating the evolution of the urban system is a key to help decision makers to anticipate the needs of the city in terms of installing new equipment and opening new urbanization’ areas to install the new population.

  13. Agent-based modeling and simulation of clean heating system adoption in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya

    2011-03-15

    A sound climate policy encouraging clean energy investment is important to mitigate global warming. Previous research has demonstrated that consumer choice indeed plays an important role in adoption of sustainable technologies. This thesis strives to gain a better understanding of consumers' decision-making on heating systems and to explore the potential application of agent-based modeling (ABM) in exploring mechanism underlying adoption in which heating system adoption by Norwegian households is taken up as a case study. An interdisciplinary approach, applying various established theories including those of psychology, is applied to create a model for consumer behavior and implement this behavior in an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate heating technology diffusion. A mail-survey, carried out in autumn 2008, is a means to collect information for parameterizing the agent-based model, for gaining empirical facts, and for validating the developed model at micro-level. Survey sample consisted of 1500 Norwegian households drawn from population register and 1500 wood pellet users in Norway. The response rates were 10.3% and 34.6% for population sample and wood pellet sample respectively. This study is divided into two parts; empirical analysis and agent-based simulation. The empirical analysis aims at fully understanding the important aspects of adoption decision and their implications, in order to assist simulation. The analysis particularly contributes to the identification of differences/similarities between adopters and non adopters of wood pellet heating with respects to some key points of adoption derived from different theories, psychological factors underlying the adoption-decision of wood pellet heating, and the rationales underlying Norwegian households' decisions regarding their future heating system. The simulation study aims at exploring the mechanism of heterogeneous household decision-making giving rise to the diffusion of heating systems, and

  14. LUNES: Agent-based Simulation of P2P Systems (Extended Version)

    CERN Document Server

    D'Angelo, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    We present LUNES, an agent-based Large Unstructured NEtwork Simulator, which allows to simulate complex networks composed of a high number of nodes. LUNES is modular, since it splits the three phases of network topology creation, protocol simulation and performance evaluation. This permits to easily integrate external software tools into the main software architecture. The simulation of the interaction protocols among network nodes is performed via a simulation middleware that supports both the sequential and the parallel/distributed simulation approaches. In the latter case, a specific mechanism for the communication overhead-reduction is used; this guarantees high levels of performance and scalability. To demonstrate the efficiency of LUNES, we test the simulator with gossip protocols executed on top of networks (representing peer-to-peer overlays), generated with different topologies. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  15. An Agent-Based Model of New Venture Creation: Conceptual Design for Simulating Entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provance, Mike; Collins, Andrew; Carayannis, Elias

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing debate over the means by which regions can foster the growth of entrepreneurial activity in order to stimulate recovery and growth of their economies. On one side, agglomeration theory suggests the regions grow because of strong clusters that foster knowledge spillover locally; on the other side, the entrepreneurial action camp argues that innovative business models are generated by entrepreneurs with unique market perspectives who draw on knowledge from more distant domains. We will show you the design for a novel agent-based model of new venture creation that will demonstrate the relationship between agglomeration and action. The primary focus of this model is information exchange as the medium for these agent interactions. Our modeling and simulation study proposes to reveal interesting relationships in these perspectives, offer a foundation on which these disparate theories from economics and sociology can find common ground, and expand the use of agent-based modeling into entrepreneurship research.

  16. Friendship Dynamics: Modelling Social Relationships through a Fuzzy Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samer Hassan

    2011-01-01

    This study shows how to simulate these friendship dynamics in an agent-based model that applies fuzzy sets theory to implement agent attributes, rules, and social relationships, explaining the process in detail. Although in principle it may be thought that the use of fuzzy sets theory makes agent-based modelling more elaborated, in practice it saves the modeller from taking some arbitrary decisions on how to use crisp values for representing properties that are inherently fuzzy. The consequences of applying fuzzy sets and operations to define a fuzzy friendship relationship are compared with a simpler implementation, with crisp values. By integrating agent computational models and fuzzy set theory, this paper provides useful insights into scholars and practitioners to tackle the uncertainty inherent to social relationships in a systematic way.

  17. Simulating GenCo bidding strategies in electricity markets with an agent-based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botterud, Audun; Thimmapuram, Prakash R.; Yamakado, Malo

    2005-12-15

    In this paper we use an agent-based simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze market power in electricity markets. We focus on the effect of congestion management on the ability of generating companies (GenCos) to raise prices beyond competitive levels. An 11-node test power system is used to compare a market design based on locational marginal pricing with a market design that uses system marginal pricing and congestion management by counter trading. Bidding strategies based on both physical and economic withholding are compared to a base case with production cost bidding. The results show that unilateral market power is exercised under both pricing mechanisms. However, the largest changes in consumer costs and GenCo profits due to strategic bidding occur under the locational marginal pricing scheme. The analysis also illustrates that agent-based modeling can contribute important insights into the complex interactions between the participants in transmission-constrained electricity markets. (Author)

  18. Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.

  19. Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

    2012-06-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

  20. GridLAB-D: An Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Smart Grids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David P. Chassin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of smart grid technologies requires a fundamentally new approach to integrated modeling of power systems, energy markets, building technologies, and the plethora of other resources and assets that are becoming part of modern electricity production, delivery, and consumption systems. As a result, the US Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity commissioned the development of a new type of power system simulation tool called GridLAB-D that uses an agent-based approach to simulating smart grids. This paper presents the numerical methods and approach to time-series simulation used by GridLAB-D and reviews applications in power system studies, market design, building control system design, and integration of wind power in a smart grid.

  1. An agent based model for simulating the spread of sexually transmitted infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Grant; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D

    2012-01-01

    This work uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to simulate sexually transmitted infection (STIs) spread within a population of 1000 agents over a 10-year period, as a preliminary investigation of the suitability of ABM methodology to simulate STI spread. The work contrasts compartmentalized mathematical models that fail to account for individual agents, and ABMs commonly applied to simulate the spread of respiratory infections. The model was developed in C++ using the Boost 1.47.0 libraries for the normal distribution and OpenGL for visualization. Sixteen agent parameters interact individually and in combination to govern agent profiles and behaviours relative to infection probabilities. The simulation results provide qualitative comparisons of STI mitigation strategies, including the impact of condom use, promiscuity, the form of the friend network, and mandatory STI testing. Individual and population-wide impacts were explored, with individual risk being impacted much more dramatically by population-level behaviour changes as compared to individual behaviour changes.

  2. Market power analysis in the EEX electricity market : an agent-based simulation approach.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, J.; Botterud, A.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, an agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) approach is used to model the German wholesale electricity market. The spot market prices in the European Energy Exchange (EEX) are studied as the wholesale market prices. Each participant in the market is modeled as an individual rationality-bounded agent whose objective is to maximize its own profit. By simulating the market clearing process, the interaction among agents is captured. The market clearing price formed by agentspsila production cost bidding is regarded as the reference marginal cost. The gap between the marginal cost and the real market price is measured as an indicator of possible market power exertion. Various bidding strategies such as physical withholding and economic withholding can be simulated to represent strategic bidding behaviors of the market participants. The preliminary simulation results show that some generation companies (GenCos) are in the position of exerting market power by strategic bidding.

  3. ModelforAnalyzing Human Communication Network Based onAgent-Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuyama, Shinako; Terano, Takao

    This paper discusses dynamic properties of human communications networks, which appears as a result of informationexchanges among people. We propose agent-based simulation (ABS) to examine implicit mechanisms behind the dynamics. The ABS enables us to reveal the characteristics and the differences of the networks regarding the specific communicationgroups. We perform experiments on the ABS with activity data from questionnaires survey and with virtual data which isdifferent from the activity data. We compare the difference between them and show the effectiveness of the ABS through theexperiments.

  4. Using an Agent-Based Modeling Simulation and Game to Teach Socio-Scientific Topics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori L. Scarlatos

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In our modern world, where science, technology and society are tightly interwoven, it is essential that all students be able to evaluate scientific evidence and make informed decisions. Energy Choices, an agent-based simulation with a multiplayer game interface, was developed as a learning tool that models the interdependencies between the energy choices that are made, growth in local economies, and climate change on a global scale. This paper presents the results of pilot testing Energy Choices in two different settings, using two different modes of delivery.

  5. STUDIES ON HORIZONTAL COMPETITION AMONG HOMOGENOUS RETAILERS THROUGH AGENT-BASED SIMULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ming XIE; Jian CHEN

    2004-01-01

    This paper adopts agent-based simulation to study the horizontal competition among homogenous price-setting retailers in a one-to-many supply chain (a supply chain consists of one supplier and multiple retailers). We model the supplier and retailers as agents, and design their behavioral rulesrespectively. The results show that although the agents learn individually based on their own experiences, the system converges asymptotically to near Nash equilibrium steady states.When analyzing the results, we first discuss the properties of these steady states. Then based on these properties, we analyze the effects of the retailers' horizontal competition on the retail prices, retailers'profits and supplier's revenue.

  6. An agent-based epidemic simulation of social behaviors affecting HIV transmission among Taiwanese homosexuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chung-Yuan

    2015-01-01

    Computational simulations are currently used to identify epidemic dynamics, to test potential prevention and intervention strategies, and to study the effects of social behaviors on HIV transmission. The author describes an agent-based epidemic simulation model of a network of individuals who participate in high-risk sexual practices, using number of partners, condom usage, and relationship length to distinguish between high- and low-risk populations. Two new concepts-free links and fixed links-are used to indicate tendencies among individuals who either have large numbers of short-term partners or stay in long-term monogamous relationships. An attempt was made to reproduce epidemic curves of reported HIV cases among male homosexuals in Taiwan prior to using the agent-based model to determine the effects of various policies on epidemic dynamics. Results suggest that when suitable adjustments are made based on available social survey statistics, the model accurately simulates real-world behaviors on a large scale.

  7. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  8. Agent-based simulation of pedestrian behaviour in closed spaces: a museum case study

    CERN Document Server

    Pluchino, Alessandro; Inturri, Giuseppe; Rapisarda, Andrea; Ignaccolo, Matteo

    2013-01-01

    In order to analyse the behaviour of pedestrians at the very fine scale, while moving along the streets, in open spaces or inside a building, simulation modelling becomes an essential tool. In these spatial environments, in the presence of unusual demand flows, simulation requires the ability to model the local dynamics of individual decision making and behaviour, which is strongly affected by the geometry, randomness, social preferences, local and collective behaviour of other individuals. The dynamics of people visiting and evacuating a museum offers an excellent case study along this line. In this paper we realize an agent-based simulation of the Castello Ursino museum in Catania (Italy), evaluating its carrying capacity in terms of both satisfaction of the visitors in regime of normal fruition and their safety under alarm conditions.

  9. An Agent-Based Labor Market Simulation with Endogenous Skill-Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemkow, S.

    This paper considers an agent-based labor market simulation to examine the influence of skills on wages and unemployment rates. Therefore less and highly skilled workers as well as less and highly productive vacancies are implemented. The skill distribution is exogenous whereas the distribution of the less and highly productive vacancies is endogenous. The different opportunities of the skill groups on the labor market are established by skill requirements. This means that a highly productive vacancy can only be filled by a highly skilled unemployed. Different skill distributions, which can also be interpreted as skill-biased technological change, are simulated by incrementing the skill level of highly skilled persons exogenously. This simulation also provides a microeconomic foundation of the matching function often used in theoretical approaches.

  10. Simulating the elimination of sleeping sickness with an agent-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grébaut, Pascal; Girardin, Killian; Fédérico, Valentine; Bousquet, François

    2016-01-01

    Although Human African Trypanosomiasis is largely considered to be in the process of extinction today, the persistence of human and animal reservoirs, as well as the vector, necessitates a laborious elimination process. In this context, modeling could be an effective tool to evaluate the ability of different public health interventions to control the disease. Using the Cormas® system, we developed HATSim, an agent-based model capable of simulating the possible endemic evolutions of sleeping sickness and the ability of National Control Programs to eliminate the disease. This model takes into account the analysis of epidemiological, entomological, and ecological data from field studies conducted during the last decade, making it possible to predict the evolution of the disease within this area over a 5-year span. In this article, we first present HATSim according to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol that is classically used to describe agent-based models, then, in a second part, we present predictive results concerning the evolution of Human African Trypanosomiasis in the village of Lambi (Cameroon), in order to illustrate the interest of such a tool. Our results are consistent with what was observed in the field by the Cameroonian National Control Program (CNCP). Our simulations also revealed that regular screening can be sufficient, although vector control applied to all areas with human activities could be significantly more efficient. Our results indicate that the current model can already help decision-makers in planning the elimination of the disease in foci. PMID:28008825

  11. Simulating the elimination of sleeping sickness with an agent-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grébaut Pascal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Human African Trypanosomiasis is largely considered to be in the process of extinction today, the persistence of human and animal reservoirs, as well as the vector, necessitates a laborious elimination process. In this context, modeling could be an effective tool to evaluate the ability of different public health interventions to control the disease. Using the Cormas® system, we developed HATSim, an agent-based model capable of simulating the possible endemic evolutions of sleeping sickness and the ability of National Control Programs to eliminate the disease. This model takes into account the analysis of epidemiological, entomological, and ecological data from field studies conducted during the last decade, making it possible to predict the evolution of the disease within this area over a 5-year span. In this article, we first present HATSim according to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD protocol that is classically used to describe agent-based models, then, in a second part, we present predictive results concerning the evolution of Human African Trypanosomiasis in the village of Lambi (Cameroon, in order to illustrate the interest of such a tool. Our results are consistent with what was observed in the field by the Cameroonian National Control Program (CNCP. Our simulations also revealed that regular screening can be sufficient, although vector control applied to all areas with human activities could be significantly more efficient. Our results indicate that the current model can already help decision-makers in planning the elimination of the disease in foci.

  12. Simulation of game analysis based on an agent-based artificial stock market re-examined

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    This work re-examined the simulation result of game analysis (Joshi et al., 2000) based on an agent-based model,Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market. Allowing for recent research work on this artificial model, this paper's modified game simulations found that the dividend amplitude parameter is a crucial factor and that the original conclusion still holds in a not long period, but only when the dividend amplitude is large enough. Our explanation of this result is that the dividend amplitude parameter is a measurement of market uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the price volatility, and so is the risk of investing in the stock market. The greater the risk, the greater the advantage of including technical rules.

  13. Multi-Agent-Based Simulation of a Complex Ecosystem of Mental Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalton, Alan; Falconer, Erin; Docherty, John; Alevras, Dimitris; Brann, David; Johnson, Kyle

    2016-02-01

    This paper discusses the creation of an Agent-Based Simulation that modeled the introduction of care coordination capabilities into a complex system of care for patients with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness. The model describes the engagement between patients and the medical, social and criminal justice services they interact with in a complex ecosystem of care. We outline the challenges involved in developing the model, including process mapping and the collection and synthesis of data to support parametric estimates, and describe the controls built into the model to support analysis of potential changes to the system. We also describe the approach taken to calibrate the model to an observable level of system performance. Preliminary results from application of the simulation are provided to demonstrate how it can provide insights into potential improvements deriving from introduction of care coordination technology.

  14. Promoting Conceptual Change for Complex Systems Understanding: Outcomes of an Agent-Based Participatory Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rates, Christopher A.; Mulvey, Bridget K.; Feldon, David F.

    2016-08-01

    Components of complex systems apply across multiple subject areas, and teaching these components may help students build unifying conceptual links. Students, however, often have difficulty learning these components, and limited research exists to understand what types of interventions may best help improve understanding. We investigated 32 high school students' understandings of complex systems components and whether an agent-based simulation could improve their understandings. Pretest and posttest essays were coded for changes in six components to determine whether students showed more expert thinking about the complex system of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Results showed significant improvement for the components Emergence ( r = .26, p = .03), Order ( r = .37, p = .002), and Tradeoffs ( r = .44, p = .001). Implications include that the experiential nature of the simulation has the potential to support conceptual change for some complex systems components, presenting a promising option for complex systems instruction.

  15. Developing an Agent-Based Model to Simulate Urban Land-Use Expansion (Case Study: Qazvin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Nourian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Extended abstract1-IntroductionUrban land-use expansion is a challenging issue in developing countries. Increases in population as well as the immigration from the villages to the cities are the two major factors for that phenomenon. Those factors have reduced the influence of efforts that try to limit the cities’ boundaries. Thus, spatial planners always look for the models that simulate the expansion of urban land-uses and enable them to prevent unbalanced expansions of cities and guide the developments to the desired areas. Several models have been developed and evaluated for simulating urban land-use expansions. Despite the variety of the models, most of them have focused on simulating urban land-use expansions just around a city. Thus, the regional models that consider wider area are of primary importance.2- Theoretical basesIn this study a new agent-based model has been developed and implemented to simulate urban land-use expansion in Qazvin and Alborz regions of Qazvin state which have an area of 1620 square kilometers. In this model, land-use developers have been treated as agents that move in the landscape explicitly and assess the state of parcels for development. So, the environment of the model is raster. The agents are developed into five groups which have different aims. The agents may fall in competition to develop the same parcels. Moreover, due to the spatial essence of the problem, GIS were used to prepare the environment of agents’ movement and search and to aggregate and analyze the results.Two main steps can be recognized in this model: the Searching step and the Development step:Searching step: The agents are created and distributed in the districts. The selection of districts is probabilistic and is based on the primary probability of selection, assumed for districts. When agents go to the districts, at first they move randomly to the neighborhood of pre-developed areas. Wherever the agent starts its activities, it

  16. Agent-Based Crowd Simulation Considering Emotion Contagion for Emergency Evacuation Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faroqi, H.; Mesgari, M.-S.

    2015-12-01

    During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  17. Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, George P; Verdery, Ashton M; Walsh, Stephen J; Sawangdee, Yothin; Heumann, Benjamin W; McDaniel, Philip M; Frizzelle, Brian G; Williams, Nathalie E; Yao, Xiaozheng; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R

    2014-09-01

    The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.

  18. Agent-based simulations of emotion spreading in online social networks

    CERN Document Server

    Šuvakov, Milovan; Schweitzer, Frank; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative analysis of empirical data from online social networks reveals group dynamics in which emotions are involved (\\v{S}uvakov et al). Full understanding of the underlying mechanisms, however, remains a challenging task. Using agent-based computer simulations, in this paper we study dynamics of emotional communications in online social networks. The rules that guide how the agents interact are motivated, and the realistic network structure and some important parameters are inferred from the empirical dataset of \\texttt{MySpace} social network. Agent's emotional state is characterized by two variables representing psychological arousal---reactivity to stimuli, and valence---attractiveness or aversiveness, by which common emotions can be defined. Agent's action is triggered by increased arousal. High-resolution dynamics is implemented where each message carrying agent's emotion along the network link is identified and its effect on the recipient agent is considered as continuously aging in time. Our res...

  19. Application of Transaction Costs in Analyzing Transport Corridors Using Multi-Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence E. Henesey

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In analyzing the freight transportation systems, such as thetransport of intermodal containers, often direct monetary costsassociated with transportation are used to evaluate or determinethe choice of transport corridor. In forming decisions ontransport co"idor choice, this paper proposes that transactioncosts can be considered as an additional determinant in conductingtransport corridor analysis. The application of transactioncosts theory in analyzing the organizations and the transactionsthat occur, assists in indicating as to which governancestructure results in higher efficiencies. Efficiency is seen as eitherthe minimisation on costs or the maximisation of customerservice levels. The use of multi-agent based simulation for modellingthe organisational structure and mechanisms provides anovel approach in understanding the relationships in a regionaltransport co"idor.

  20. An agent-based simulation model to study accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pai; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-03-01

    Creating accountable care organizations (ACOs) has been widely discussed as a strategy to control rapidly rising healthcare costs and improve quality of care; however, building an effective ACO is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders (payers, providers, patients) with their own interests. Also, implementation of an ACO is costly in terms of time and money. Immature design could cause safety hazards. Therefore, there is a need for analytical model-based decision-support tools that can predict the outcomes of different strategies to facilitate ACO design and implementation. In this study, an agent-based simulation model was developed to study ACOs that considers payers, healthcare providers, and patients as agents under the shared saving payment model of care for congestive heart failure (CHF), one of the most expensive causes of sometimes preventable hospitalizations. The agent-based simulation model has identified the critical determinants for the payment model design that can motivate provider behavior changes to achieve maximum financial and quality outcomes of an ACO. The results show nonlinear provider behavior change patterns corresponding to changes in payment model designs. The outcomes vary by providers with different quality or financial priorities, and are most sensitive to the cost-effectiveness of CHF interventions that an ACO implements. This study demonstrates an increasingly important method to construct a healthcare system analytics model that can help inform health policy and healthcare management decisions. The study also points out that the likely success of an ACO is interdependent with payment model design, provider characteristics, and cost and effectiveness of healthcare interventions.

  1. Simulating the Reproductive Behavior of a Region’s Population with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The research analyses the impact of the inequality of demographic transition on socio-demographic characteristics of the regional population and on the dynamics of these characteristics. The study was conducted with the help of computer-based experiments (simulations, which was run on the original agent-based model. The model is an artificial society, and personal characteristics of its members are set so that they could represent age-demographic structure of a simulate region. The agents are divided into two subgroups, which differ in their reproductive strategy. The first group has traditional strategy with high birth rate. The second group has considerably lower birth rate, observed in the modern developed societies. The model uses stochastic approaches to imitate the principle processes of population growth: mortality and morbidity. Mortality is set according to age-sex specific mortality coefficients, which do not differ across the population as a whole. New agents (child births appear as a choice of agents – women of reproductive age, and the choice depends on the subgroup. The overall age and social structure of the region is aggregated across individual agents. A number of experiments has been carried out with the model utilization. This allowed forecasting the size and structure of the population of a given region. The results of the experiments have revealed that despite its simplicity, the developed agent-based model well predicts the initial conditions in the region (e.g. age-demographic and social structure. The model shows good fit in terms of estimating the dynamics of major characteristics of the population.

  2. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  3. Design of a Mobile Agent-Based Adaptive Communication Middleware for Federations of Critical Infrastructure Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Görbil, Gökçe; Gelenbe, Erol

    The simulation of critical infrastructures (CI) can involve the use of diverse domain specific simulators that run on geographically distant sites. These diverse simulators must then be coordinated to run concurrently in order to evaluate the performance of critical infrastructures which influence each other, especially in emergency or resource-critical situations. We therefore describe the design of an adaptive communication middleware that provides reliable and real-time one-to-one and group communications for federations of CI simulators over a wide-area network (WAN). The proposed middleware is composed of mobile agent-based peer-to-peer (P2P) overlays, called virtual networks (VNets), to enable resilient, adaptive and real-time communications over unreliable and dynamic physical networks (PNets). The autonomous software agents comprising the communication middleware monitor their performance and the underlying PNet, and dynamically adapt the P2P overlay and migrate over the PNet in order to optimize communications according to the requirements of the federation and the current conditions of the PNet. Reliable communications is provided via redundancy within the communication middleware and intelligent migration of agents over the PNet. The proposed middleware integrates security methods in order to protect the communication infrastructure against attacks and provide privacy and anonymity to the participants of the federation. Experiments with an initial version of the communication middleware over a real-life networking testbed show that promising improvements can be obtained for unicast and group communications via the agent migration capability of our middleware.

  4. AGENT-BASED SIMULATION FOR KANSEI ENGINEERING: TESTING A FUZZY LINEAR QUANTIFICATION METHOD IN AN ARTIFICIAL WORLD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper argues that agent-based simulation can be used as a way for testing Kansei Engineering methods which deal with the human reaction from sensory to mental state, that is, sensitivity, sense,sensibility, feeling, esthetics, emotion affection and intuition. A new fuzzy linear quantification method is tested in an artificial world by agent-based modeling and simulations, and the performance of the fuzzy linear method is compared with that of a genetic algorithm. The simulations can expand people's imagination and enhance people's intuition that the new fuzzy linear quantification method is effective.

  5. Impact of urban planning on household's residential decisions: An agent-based simulation model for Vienna☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaube, Veronika; Remesch, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Interest in assessing the sustainability of socio-ecological systems of urban areas has increased notably, with additional attention generated due to the fact that half the world's population now lives in cities. Urban areas face both a changing urban population size and increasing sustainability issues in terms of providing good socioeconomic and environmental living conditions. Urban planning has to deal with both challenges. Households play a major role by being affected by urban planning decisions on the one hand and by being responsible – among many other factors – for the environmental performance of a city (e.g. energy use). We here present an agent-based decision model referring to the city of Vienna, the capital of Austria, with a population of about 1.7 million (2.3 million within the metropolitan area, the latter being more than 25% of Austria's total population). Since the early 1990s, after decades of negative population growth, Vienna has been experiencing a steady increase in population, mainly driven by immigration. The aim of the agent-based decision model is to simulate new residential patterns of different household types based on demographic development and migration scenarios. Model results were used to assess spatial patterns of energy use caused by different household types in the four scenarios (1) conventional urban planning, (2) sustainable urban planning, (3) expensive centre and (4) no green area preference. Outcomes show that changes in preferences of households relating to the presence of nearby green areas have the most important impact on the distribution of households across the small-scaled city area. Additionally, the results demonstrate the importance of the distribution of different household types regarding spatial patterns of energy use. PMID:27667962

  6. Investigating the role of water in the Diffusion of Cholera using Agent-Based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Doldersum, Tom; Augustijn, Denie

    2014-05-01

    Traditionally, cholera was considered to be a waterborne disease. Currently we know that many other factors can contribute to the spread of this disease including human mobility and human behavior. However, the hydrological component in cholera diffusion is significant. The interplay between cholera and water includes bacteria (V. cholera) that survive in the aquatic environment, the possibility that run-off water from dumpsites carries the bacteria to surface water (rivers and lakes), and when the bacteria reach streams they can be carried downstream to infect new locations. Modelling is a very important tool to build theory on the interplay between different types of transmission mechanisms that together are responsible for the spread of Cholera. Agent-based simulation models are very suitable to incorporate behavior at individual level and to reproduce emergence. However, it is more difficult to incorporate the hydrological components in this type of model. In this research we present the hydrological component of an Agent-Based Cholera model developed to study a Cholera epidemic in Kumasi (Ghana) in 2005. The model was calibrated on the relative contribution of each community to the distributed pattern of cholera rather than the absolute number of incidences. Analysis of the results shows that water plays an important role in the diffusion of cholera: 75% of the cholera cases were infected via river water that was contaminated by runoff from the dumpsites. To initiate infections upstream, the probability of environment-to-human transmission seemed to be overestimated compared to what may be expected from literature. Scenario analyses show that there is a strong relation between the epidemic curve and the rainfall. Removing dumpsites that are situated close to the river resulted in a strong decrease in the number of cholera cases. Results are sensitive to the scheduling of the daily activities and the survival time of the cholera bacteria.

  7. On Mechanism, Process and Polity: An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Florela Voinea

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The present approach provides a theoretical account of political culture-based modeling of political change phenomena. Our approach is an agent-based simulation model inspired by a social-psychological account of the relation between the individual agents (citizens and the polity. It includes political culture as a fundamental modeling dimension. On this background, we reconsider the operational definitions of agent, mechanism, process, and polity so as to specify the role they play in the modeling of political change phenomena. We evaluate our previous experimental simulation experience in corruption emergence and political attitude change. The paper approaches the artificial polity as a political culture-based model of a body politic. It involves political culture concepts to account for the complexity of domestic political phenomena, going from political attitude change at the individual level up to major political change at the societal level. Architecture, structure, unit of interaction, generative mechanisms and processes are described. Both conceptual and experimental issues are described so as to highlight the differences between the simulation models of society and polity.

  8. On Mechanism, Process and Polity: An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voinea, Camelia Florela

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The present approach provides a theoretical account of political culture-based modeling of political change phenomena. Our approach is an agent-based simulation model inspired by a social-psychological account of the relation between the individual agents (citizens and the polity. It includes political culture as a fundamental modeling dimension. On this background, we reconsider the operational definitions of agent, mechanism, process, and polity so as to specify the role they play in the modeling of political change phenomena. We evaluate our previous experimental simulation experience in corruption emergence and political attitude change. The paper approaches the artificial polity as a political culture-based model of a body politic. It involves political culture concepts to account for the complexity of domestic political phenomena, going from political attitude change at the individual level up to major political change at the societal level. Architecture, structure, unit of interaction, generative mechanisms and processes are described. Both conceptual and experimental issues are described so as to highlight the differences between the simulation models of society and polity.  

  9. Impact of road environment on drivers' behaviors in dilemma zone: Application of agent-based simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sojung; Son, Young-Jun; Chiu, Yi-Chang; Jeffers, Mary Anne B; Yang, C Y David

    2016-11-01

    At a signalized intersection, there exists an area where drivers become indecisive as to either stop their car or proceed through when the traffic signal turns yellow. This point, called a dilemma zone, has remained a safety concern for drivers due to the great possibility of a rear-end or right-angle crash occurring. In order to reduce the risk of car crashes at the dilemma zone, Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) recommended a dilemma zone model. The model, however, fails to provide precise calculations on the decision of drivers because it disregards the supplemental roadway information, such as whether a red light camera is present. Hence, the goal of this study was to incorporate such roadway environmental factors into a more realistic driver decision-making model for the dilemma zone. A driving simulator was used to determine the influence of roadway conditions on decision-making of real drivers. Following data collection, each driver's decision outcomes were implemented in an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) so as to analyze behaviors under realistic road environments. The experimental results revealed that the proposed dilemma zone model was able to accurately predict the decisions of drivers. Specifically, the model confirmed the findings from the driving simulator study that the changes in the roadway environment reduced the number of red light violations at an intersection.

  10. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  11. An artificial intelligence approach for modeling molecular self-assembly: agent-based simulations of rigid molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortuna, Sara; Troisi, Alessandro

    2009-07-23

    Agent-based simulations are rule-based models traditionally used for the simulations of complex systems. In this paper, an algorithm based on the concept of agent-based simulations is developed to predict the lowest energy packing of a set of identical rigid molecules. The agents are identified with rigid portions of the system under investigation, and they evolve following a set of rules designed to drive the system toward the lowest energy minimum. The algorithm is compared with a conventional Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm, and it is applied on a large set of representative models of molecules. For all the systems studied, the agent-based method consistently finds a significantly lower energy minima than the Monte Carlo algorithm because the system evolution includes elements of adaptation (new configurations induce new types of moves) and learning (past successful choices are repeated).

  12. Comparing Simulation Output Accuracy of Discrete Event and Agent Based Models: A Quantitive Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf

    2010-01-01

    In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methids. In a second step a multi-scenario experimen...

  13. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid

    2016-12-21

    With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C), Deployment (D), Resource (R) and IOData (IO). Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design.

  14. Simulation of Land-Use Development, Using a Risk-Regarding Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hosseinali

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the spatial consequences of applying different Attitude Utility Functions (AUFs, which reflect peoples’ simplified psychological frames, to investment plans in land-use decision making. For this purpose, we considered and implemented an agent-based model with new methods for searching landscapes, for selecting parcels to develop, and for allowing competitions among agents. Besides this, GIS (Geographic Information Systems as a versatile and powerful medium of analyzing and representing spatial data is used. Our model is implemented on an artificial landscape in which land is being developed by agents. The agents are assumed to be mobile developers that are equipped with several land-related objectives. In this paper, agents mimic various risk-bearing attitudes and sometimes compete for developing the same parcel. The results reveal that patterns of land-use development are different in the two cases of regarding and disregarding AUFs. Therefore, it is considered here that using the attitudes of people towards risk helps the model to better simulate the decision making of land-use developers. The different attitudes toward risk used in this study can be attributed to different categories of developers based on sets of characteristics such as income, age, or education.

  15. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C, Deployment (D, Resource (R and IOData (IO. Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design.

  16. Agent Based Modeling and Simulation of Pedestrian Crowds In Panic Situations

    KAUST Repository

    Alrashed, Mohammed

    2016-11-01

    The increasing occurrence of panic stampedes during mass events has motivated studying the impact of panic on crowd dynamics and the simulation of pedestrian flows in panic situations. The lack of understanding of panic stampedes still causes hundreds of fatalities each year, not to mention the scarce methodical studies of panic behavior capable of envisaging such crowd dynamics. Under those circumstances, there are thousands of fatalities and twice that many of injuries every year caused be crowd stampede worldwide, despite the tremendous efforts of crowd control and massive numbers of safekeeping forces. Pedestrian crowd dynamics are generally predictable in high-density crowds where pedestrians cannot move freely and thus gives rise to self-propelling interactions between pedestrians. Although every pedestrian has personal preferences, the motion dynamics can be modeled as a social force in such crowds. These forces are representations of internal preferences and objectives to perform certain actions or movements. The corresponding forces can be controlled for each individual to represent a different variety of behaviors that can be associated with panic situations such as escaping danger, clustering, and pushing. In this thesis, we use an agent-based model of pedestrian behavior in panic situations to predict the collective human behavior in such crowd dynamics. The proposed simulations suggests a practical way to alleviate fatalities and minimize the evacuation time in panic situations. Moreover, we introduce contagious panic and pushing behavior, resulting in a more realistic crowd dynamics model. The proposed methodology describes the intensity and spread of panic for each individual as a function of distances between pedestrians.

  17. Agent-based evacuation simulation for spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia; Wen, Jiahong; Jiang, Yong

    2015-12-01

    The construction of urban shelters is one of the most important work in urban planning and disaster prevention. The spatial allocation assessment is a fundamental pre-step for spatial location-allocation of urban shelters. This paper introduces a new method which makes use of agent-based technology to implement evacuation simulation so as to conduct dynamic spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters. The method can not only accomplish traditional geospatial evaluation for urban shelters, but also simulate the evacuation process of the residents to shelters. The advantage of utilizing this method lies into three aspects: (1) the evacuation time of each citizen from a residential building to the shelter can be estimated more reasonably; (2) the total evacuation time of all the residents in a region is able to be obtained; (3) the road congestions in evacuation in sheltering can be detected so as to take precautionary measures to prevent potential risks. In this study, three types of agents are designed: shelter agents, government agents and resident agents. Shelter agents select specified land uses as shelter candidates for different disasters. Government agents delimitate the service area of each shelter, in other words, regulate which shelter a person should take, in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distance between the person's position and the location of the shelter. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, walking speeds, and so on. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, helping old people and children, and so on. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, evacuation procedures can be simulated and dynamic allocation assessment of shelters will be achieved. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. A scenario of earthquake disaster which occurs in nighttime

  18. Multi-agent Based Hierarchy Simulation Models of Carrier-based Aircraft Catapult Launch

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Weijun; Qu Xiangju; Guo Linliang

    2008-01-01

    With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems,the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed.Ocean,carrier,aircraft,and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents,the detailed components like catapult,landing gears,and disturbances are considered as meta-agents,which belong to their aggregation agent.Thus,the model with two layers is formed i.e.the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer.The information communication among all agents is described.The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing,but the meta-agents,which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer fast,and then perceive it from the sharing environment,that is the aggregation agent.Thus,not only the hierarchy model is built,but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified.Meanwhile,the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system (MAS) is resolved.Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted,with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier,aircraft,and landing gears.The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors,and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized.Finally,some results of a simulation instance are given.The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely.The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system.This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent,and it is convenient to expand,maintain,and reuse

  19. Agent-based simulation for weekend-extension strategies to mitigate influenza outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mao Liang

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Non-pharmaceutical strategies are vital in curtailing impacts of influenza and have been intensively studied in public health. However, few strategies have explicitly utilized the weekend effect, which has been widely reported to be capable of reducing influenza infections. This study aims to explore six weekend-extension strategies against seasonal and pandemic flu outbreaks. Methods The weekend-extension strategies were designed to extend regular two-day weekend by one, two and three days, respectively, and in combination with either a continuous or discontinuous pattern. Their effectiveness was evaluated using an established agent-based spatially explicit simulation model in the urbanized area of Buffalo, NY, US. Results If the extensions last more than two days, the weekend-extension strategies can remarkably reduce the overall disease attack rate of seasonal flu. Particularly, a three-day continuous extension is sufficient to suppress the epidemic and confine the spread of disease. For the pandemic flu, the weekend-extension strategies only produce a few mitigation effects until the extensions exceed three days. Sensitivity analysis indicated that a compliance level above 75% is necessary for the weekend-extension strategies to take effects. Conclusion This research is the first attempt to incorporate the weekend effect into influenza mitigation strategies. The results suggest that appropriate extensions of the regular two-day weekend can be a potential measure to fight against influenza outbreaks, while minimizing interruptions on normal rhythms of socio-economy. The concept of weekend extension would be particularly useful if there were a lack of vaccine stockpiles, e.g., in countries with limited health resources, or in the case of unknown emerging infectious diseases.

  20. MULTI-AGENT BASED SIMULATION OF OPTIMAL URBAN LAND USE ALLOCATION IN THE MIDDLE REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER, CHINA

    OpenAIRE

    Zeng,Y.; Huang, W.; Jin, W.; Li, S

    2016-01-01

    The optimization of land-use allocation is one of important approaches to achieve regional sustainable development. This study selects Chang-Zhu-Tan agglomeration as study area and proposed a new land use optimization allocation model. Using multi-agent based simulation model, the future urban land use optimization allocation was simulated in 2020 and 2030 under three different scenarios. This kind of quantitative information about urban land use optimization allocation and urban expansions i...

  1. Towards Agent-Based Simulation of Emerging and Large-Scale Social Networks. Examples of the Migrant Crisis and MMORPGs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schatten, Markus

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale agent based simulation of social networks is described in the context of the migrant crisis in Syria and the EU as well as massively multi-player on-line role playing games (MMORPG. The recipeWorld system by Terna and Fontana is proposed as a possible solution to simulating large-scale social networks. The initial system has been re-implemented using the Smart Python multi-Agent Development Environment (SPADE and Pyinteractive was used for visualization. We present initial models of simulation that we plan to develop further in future studies. Thus this paper is research in progress that will hopefully establish a novel agent-based modelling system in the context of the ModelMMORPG project.

  2. Translational systems biology using an agent-based approach for dynamic knowledge representation: An evolutionary paradigm for biomedical research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Gary C

    2010-01-01

    The greatest challenge facing the biomedical research community is the effective translation of basic mechanistic knowledge into clinically effective therapeutics. This challenge is most evident in attempts to understand and modulate "systems" processes/disorders, such as sepsis, cancer, and wound healing. Formulating an investigatory strategy for these issues requires the recognition that these are dynamic processes. Representation of the dynamic behavior of biological systems can aid in the investigation of complex pathophysiological processes by augmenting existing discovery procedures by integrating disparate information sources and knowledge. This approach is termed Translational Systems Biology. Focusing on the development of computational models capturing the behavior of mechanistic hypotheses provides a tool that bridges gaps in the understanding of a disease process by visualizing "thought experiments" to fill those gaps. Agent-based modeling is a computational method particularly well suited to the translation of mechanistic knowledge into a computational framework. Utilizing agent-based models as a means of dynamic hypothesis representation will be a vital means of describing, communicating, and integrating community-wide knowledge. The transparent representation of hypotheses in this dynamic fashion can form the basis of "knowledge ecologies," where selection between competing hypotheses will apply an evolutionary paradigm to the development of community knowledge.

  3. Modelling and simulation of electrical energy systems through a complex systems approach using agent-based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremers, Enrique

    2013-10-01

    Complexity science aims to better understand the processes of both natural and man-made systems which are composed of many interacting entities at different scales. A disaggregated approach is proposed for simulating electricity systems, by using agent-based models coupled to continuous ones. The approach can help in acquiring a better understanding of the operation of the system itself, e.g. on emergent phenomena or scale effects; as well as in the improvement and design of future smart grids.

  4. Agent-based Modeling Simulation Analysis on the Regulation of Institutional Investor's Encroachment Behavior in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study explores the effective regulation of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market. Given the theoretical and practical importance, the present study examines the effect of the self-adaptive regulation strategy (adjusting the regulation factors such as punishment and the probability of investigating successfully in time for the sake of the small & medium-sized investor protection.Design/methodology/approach: This study was carried out through game theory and agent-based modeling simulation. Firstly, a dynamic game model was built to search the core factors of regulation and the equilibrium paths. Secondly, an agent-based modeling simulation model was built in Swarm to extend the game model. Finally, a simulation experiment (using virtual parameter values was performed to examine the effect of regulation strategy obtained form game model.Findings: The results of this study showed that the core factors of avoiding the institutional investor's encroachment behavior are the punishment and the probability of investigating successfully of the regulator. The core factors embody as the self-adaptability and the capability of regulator. If the regulator can adjust the regulation factors in time, the illegal behaviors will be avoided effectively.Research limitations/implications: The simulation experiment in this paper was performed with virtual parameter values. Although the results of experiment showed the effect of self-adaptive regulation, there are still some differences between simulation experiment and real market situation.Originality/value: The purpose of this study is to investigate an effective regulation strategy of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market in order to maintain market order and protect the benefits of investors. Base on the game model and simulation model, a simulation experiment was preformed and the result showed that the self-adaptive regulation would be effective

  5. Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

  6. On-lattice agent-based simulation of populations of cells within the open-source Chaste framework

    KAUST Repository

    Figueredo, G. P.

    2013-02-21

    Over the years, agent-based models have been developed that combine cell division and reinforced random walks of cells on a regular lattice, reaction-diffusion equations for nutrients and growth factors; and ordinary differential equations for the subcellular networks regulating the cell cycle. When linked to a vascular layer, this multiple scale model framework has been applied to tumour growth and therapy. Here, we report on the creation of an agent-based multi-scale environment amalgamating the characteristics of these models within a Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Exemplar Project. This project enables reuse, integration, expansion and sharing of the model and relevant data. The agent-based and reaction-diffusion parts of the multi-scale model have been implemented and are available for download as part of the latest public release of Chaste (Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment; http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste/), part of the VPH Toolkit (http://toolkit.vph-noe.eu/). The environment functionalities are verified against the original models, in addition to extra validation of all aspects of the code. In this work, we present the details of the implementation of the agent-based environment, including the system description, the conceptual model, the development of the simulation model and the processes of verification and validation of the simulation results. We explore the potential use of the environment by presenting exemplar applications of the \\'what if\\' scenarios that can easily be studied in the environment. These examples relate to tumour growth, cellular competition for resources and tumour responses to hypoxia (low oxygen levels). We conclude our work by summarizing the future steps for the expansion of the current system.

  7. The effects of social interactions on fertility decline in nineteenth-century France: an agent-based simulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Bailón, Sandra; Murphy, Tommy E

    2013-07-01

    We built an agent-based simulation, incorporating geographic and demographic data from nineteenth-century France, to study the role of social interactions in fertility decisions. The simulation made experimentation possible in a context where other empirical strategies were precluded by a lack of data. We evaluated how different decision rules, with and without interdependent decision-making, caused variations in population growth and fertility levels. The analyses show that incorporating social influence into the model allows empirically observed behaviour to be mimicked, especially at a national level. These findings shed light on individual-level mechanisms through which the French demographic transition may have developed.

  8. MULTI-AGENT BASED SIMULATION OF OPTIMAL URBAN LAND USE ALLOCATION IN THE MIDDLE REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER, CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zeng

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The optimization of land-use allocation is one of important approaches to achieve regional sustainable development. This study selects Chang-Zhu-Tan agglomeration as study area and proposed a new land use optimization allocation model. Using multi-agent based simulation model, the future urban land use optimization allocation was simulated in 2020 and 2030 under three different scenarios. This kind of quantitative information about urban land use optimization allocation and urban expansions in future would be of great interest to urban planning, water and land resource management, and climate change research.

  9. Multi-Agent Based Simulation of Optimal Urban Land Use Allocation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Y.; Huang, W.; Jin, W.; Li, S.

    2016-06-01

    The optimization of land-use allocation is one of important approaches to achieve regional sustainable development. This study selects Chang-Zhu-Tan agglomeration as study area and proposed a new land use optimization allocation model. Using multi-agent based simulation model, the future urban land use optimization allocation was simulated in 2020 and 2030 under three different scenarios. This kind of quantitative information about urban land use optimization allocation and urban expansions in future would be of great interest to urban planning, water and land resource management, and climate change research.

  10. Interbank network and regulation policies: an analysis through agent-based simulations with adaptive learning

    OpenAIRE

    Barroso, Ricardo Vieira; Lima, Joaquim Ignacio Alves Vasconcellos; Lucchetti, Alexandre Henrique; Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira

    2016-01-01

    We develop an agent-based model to study the impacts of a broad range of regulation policies over the banking system. It builds on an iterated version of the \\citet{DiamondDybvig1983} framework and resorts to the experience-weighted attraction learning scheme of \\citet{CamererHo1999} to model agents' adaptive learning. Thereby, we can capture not only the direct impacts of regulation policies, but also the ones that take part through shifting agents' adaptive strategies. Our results show that...

  11. Agent Based Modeling and Simulation Framework for Supply Chain Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    Karimi . 2009. “Supply Chain Risk Identification Using a HAZOP-Based Approach,” AIChE Journal 55(6), 1447-1463. AFGLSC (Air Force Global...Srinivasan and I. Karimi . 2002. “Agent-based supply chain management – 1: framework,” Computers and Chemical Engineering 26(12), 1755-1769. Juttner, U...Springer: Berlin Heidelberg, 1-27. Naraharisetti, P.K., A. Adhitya, I.A. Karimi and R. Srinivasan. 2009. “From PSE to PSE2 – Decision support

  12. Multi-agent-based bio-network for systems biology: protein-protein interaction network as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Li-Hong; Ding, Yong-Sheng; Shen, Yi-Zhen; Zhang, Xiang-Feng

    2008-10-01

    Recently, a collective effort from multiple research areas has been made to understand biological systems at the system level. This research requires the ability to simulate particular biological systems as cells, organs, organisms, and communities. In this paper, a novel bio-network simulation platform is proposed for system biology studies by combining agent approaches. We consider a biological system as a set of active computational components interacting with each other and with an external environment. Then, we propose a bio-network platform for simulating the behaviors of biological systems and modelling them in terms of bio-entities and society-entities. As a demonstration, we discuss how a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network can be seen as a society of autonomous interactive components. From interactions among small PPI networks, a large PPI network can emerge that has a remarkable ability to accomplish a complex function or task. We also simulate the evolution of the PPI networks by using the bio-operators of the bio-entities. Based on the proposed approach, various simulators with different functions can be embedded in the simulation platform, and further research can be done from design to development, including complexity validation of the biological system.

  13. Pattern-oriented Agent-based Monte Carlo simulation of Cellular Redox Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Jiaowei; Holcombe, Mike; Boonen, Harrie C.M.

    Research suggests that cellular redox environment could affect the phenotype and function of cells through a complex reaction network[1]. In cells, redox status is mainly regulated by several redox couples, such as Glutathione/glutathione disulfide (GSH/GSSG), Cysteine/ Cystine (CYS......, that there is a connection between extracellular and intracellular redox [2], whereas others oppose this view [3]. In general however, these experiments lack insight into the dynamics, complex network of reactions and transportation through cell membrane of redox. Therefore, current experimental results reveal......] could be very important factors. In our project, an agent-based Monte Carlo modeling [6] is offered to study the dynamic relationship between extracellular and intracellular redox and complex networks of redox reactions. In the model, pivotal redox-related reactions will be included, and the reactants...

  14. Can Human-Like Bots Control Collective Mood: Agent-Based Simulations of Online Chats

    CERN Document Server

    Tadic, Bosiljka

    2013-01-01

    Using agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ``human-like'' attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analysed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent's activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate it. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process.Positive-emotion Bots are slightly more effective than the negative ones. Moreover, the Bots which are periodically alternating between positive a...

  15. Evolutionary perspectives on collective decision making: Studying the implications of diversity and social network structure with agent-based simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Sayama, Hiroki; Yammarino, Francis J

    2013-01-01

    Collective, especially group-based, managerial decision making is crucial in organizations. Using an evolutionary theory approach to collective decision making, agent-based simulations were conducted to investigate how collective decision making would be affected by the agents' diversity in problem understanding and/or behavior in discussion, as well as by their social network structure. Simulation results indicated that groups with consistent problem understanding tended to produce higher utility values of ideas and displayed better decision convergence, but only if there was no group-level bias in collective problem understanding. Simulation results also indicated the importance of balance between selection-oriented (i.e., exploitative) and variation-oriented (i.e., explorative) behaviors in discussion to achieve quality final decisions. Expanding the group size and introducing non-trivial social network structure generally improved the quality of ideas at the cost of decision convergence. Simulations with ...

  16. Diffusion dynamics and concentration of toxic materials from quantum dots-based nanotechnologies: an agent-based modeling simulation framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agusdinata, Datu Buyung, E-mail: bagusdinata@niu.edu; Amouie, Mahbod [Northern Illinois University, Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering and Environment, Sustainability, & Energy Institute (United States); Xu, Tao [Northern Illinois University, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (United States)

    2015-01-15

    Due to their favorable electrical and optical properties, quantum dots (QDs) nanostructures have found numerous applications including nanomedicine and photovoltaic cells. However, increased future production, use, and disposal of engineered QD products also raise concerns about their potential environmental impacts. The objective of this work is to establish a modeling framework for predicting the diffusion dynamics and concentration of toxic materials released from Trioctylphosphine oxide-capped CdSe. To this end, an agent-based model simulation with reaction kinetics and Brownian motion dynamics was developed. Reaction kinetics is used to model the stability of surface capping agent particularly due to oxidation process. The diffusion of toxic Cd{sup 2+} ions in aquatic environment was simulated using an adapted Brownian motion algorithm. A calibrated parameter to reflect sensitivity to reaction rate is proposed. The model output demonstrates the stochastic spatial distribution of toxic Cd{sup 2+} ions under different values of proxy environmental factor parameters. With the only chemistry considered was oxidation, the simulation was able to replicate Cd{sup 2+} ion release from Thiol-capped QDs in aerated water. The agent-based method is the first to be developed in the QDs application domain. It adds both simplicity of the solubility and rate of release of Cd{sup 2+} ions and complexity of tracking of individual atoms of Cd at the same time.

  17. Linking Bayesian and Agent-Based Models to Simulate Complex Social-Ecological Systems in the Sonoran Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, A.; Gimblett, R.

    2013-12-01

    Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent's water demand. Depth-to-groundwater was then used as an indicator of unique vegetation guilds within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation guild provides varying levels of ecosystem services, the changes of which, along with changes in depth-to-groundwater, feedback to influence agent behavior. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine resilience of semi-arid riparian corridors and agent behavior under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  18. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloah J Pope

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  19. Agent-Based Simulation of School Choice in Bandung, Indonesia: The Emergence of Enrolment Pattern Trough Individual Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhanan Sarwo Utomo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is motivated by the reality that school choice programs that is currently implemented in Bandung that, always resulting student deficit (lack of student in some schools. In this study, a mechanism that can describe how the enrollment pattern in a school choice program emerge as a result of individual preferences of the prospective students, is constructed. Using computer simulation, virtual experiments are conducted. In these experiments, the enrollment patterns and the number of student deficit that were resulted by various school choice program configurations are analyzed. Based on the experiment results, modification of the current program that can minimize the number of student deficit can be purposed.Keywords: agent-based simulation, school choice, computer simulation

  20. An Agent-based Simulation of the Effectiveness of Creative Leadership

    CERN Document Server

    Leijnen, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effectiveness of creative versus uncreative leadership using EVOC, an agent-based model of cultural evolution. Each iteration, each agent in the artificial society invents a new action, or imitates a neighbor's action. Only the leader's actions can be imitated by all other agents, referred to as followers. Two measures of creativity were used: (1) invention-to-imitation ratio, iLeader, which measures how often an agent invents, and (2) rate of conceptual change, cLeader, which measures how creative an invention is. High iLeader increased mean fitness of ideas, but only when creativity of followers was low. High iLeader was associated with greater diversity of ideas in the early stage of idea generation only. High cLeader increased mean fitness of ideas in the early stage of idea generation; in the later stage it decreased idea fitness. Reasons for these findings and tentative implications for creative leadership in human society are discussed.

  1. Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

    2013-10-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states.

  2. Simulation of the Role of Government in Spatial Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Ivanovich Suslov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the further development of an agent-based multiregional input-output model of the Russian economy. We consider the idea of incorporating the government into the model and analyze the results of experimental calculations for the conditional example of spatial economy. New agents are included into the model such as the federal and regional governments, pension fund and also the state enterprises producing public goods at the federal and regional levels. The government sets four types of taxes (personal and business income taxes, VAT and payroll taxes, ensures the provision of public goods and provides social, investment and interbudgetary transfers to households, firms and budgets. Social transfers consist of social assistance and unemployment benefits. The utility functions of households are expanded by the terms associated with national and regional public goods. The budget policy is designed in accordance with the maximization of isoelastic function of social welfare that formalizes the choice between the different concepts of social justice. The Gini index is used for the monitoring the inequality of income distribution. The results of experimental calculations present the convergence of the new version of the model to the state of quasi-equilibrium. The special attention is paid an optimal level of the taxation maximizing the social welfare function. Four variants of the optimal tax rates are defined: for three major taxes at a fixed proportion of rates and for each of the tax separately at zero rates of two other taxes. The further directions of modelling are identified, they allow to investigate the spatial development of the Russian economy taking into account the decision-making by private agents in responding to government policies.

  3. MODELING OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN STOCKS MARKETS: AN APPROACH FROM MULTI AGENT BASED SIMULATION AND FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO ESCOBAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simulation model of a complex system, in this case a financial market, using a MultiAgent Based Simulation approach. Such model takes into account microlevel aspects like the Continuous Double Auction mechanism, which is widely used within stock markets, as well as investor agents reasoning who participate looking for profits. To model such reasoning several variables were considered including general stocks information like profitability and volatility, but also some agent's aspects like their risk tendency. All these variables are incorporated throughout a fuzzy logic approach trying to represent in a faithful manner the kind of reasoning that nonexpert investors have, including a stochastic component in order to model human factors.

  4. Autonomic, Agent-Based Simulation Management (A2SM) Framework Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Large scale numerical simulations, as typified by climate models, space weather models, and the like, typically involve non-linear governing equations in discretized...

  5. [Research on multi-agent based modeling and simulation of hospital system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junping; Yang, Hongqiao; Guo, Huayuan; Li, Yi; Zhang, Zhenjiang; Li, Shuzhang

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, the theory of complex adaptive system (CAS) and its modeling method are introduced. The complex characters of the hospital system is analyzed. The agile manufacturing and cell reconstruction technologies are used to reconstruct the hospital system. Then we set forth a research for simulation of hospital system based on the methodology of Multi-Agent technology and high level architecture (HLA). Finally, a simulation framework based on HLA for hospital system is presented.

  6. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  7. Agent-based simulation of retail electricity markets: Bilateral contracting with demand response

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Fernando; Algarvio, Hugo; Ilco, Cristina; Sousa, Jorge

    2013-01-01

    The novelty of the evolving electric power industry implies that researchers lack insight into numerous open problems. There is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time. Accordingly, this article looks at using software agents to help manage the complexity of electricity markets, particularly retail markets, towards ensuring long-term capacity sustainability. The article focuses on bilateral trading and describes some importan...

  8. Developing an Agent-Based Model to Simulate Urban Land-Use Expansion (Case Study: Qazvin)

    OpenAIRE

    Nourian, F.; A. A. Alesheikh; Hosseinali, F.

    2012-01-01

    Extended abstract1-IntroductionUrban land-use expansion is a challenging issue in developing countries. Increases in population as well as the immigration from the villages to the cities are the two major factors for that phenomenon. Those factors have reduced the influence of efforts that try to limit the cities’ boundaries. Thus, spatial planners always look for the models that simulate the expansion of urban land-uses and enable them to prevent unbalanced expansions of cities and guide the...

  9. Bee++: An Object-Oriented, Agent-Based Simulator for Honey Bee Colonies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Betti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a model and associated simulation package (www.beeplusplus.ca to capture the natural dynamics of a honey bee colony in a spatially-explicit landscape, with temporally-variable, weather-dependent parameters. The simulation tracks bees of different ages and castes, food stores within the colony, pollen and nectar sources and the spatial position of individual foragers outside the hive. We track explicitly the intake of pesticides in individual bees and their ability to metabolize these toxins, such that the impact of sub-lethal doses of pesticides can be explored. Moreover, pathogen populations (in particular, Nosema apis, Nosema cerenae and Varroa mites have been included in the model and may be introduced at any time or location. The ability to study interactions among pesticides, climate, biodiversity and pathogens in this predictive framework should prove useful to a wide range of researchers studying honey bee populations. To this end, the simulation package is written in open source, object-oriented code (C++ and can be easily modified by the user. Here, we demonstrate the use of the model by exploring the effects of sub-lethal pesticide exposure on the flight behaviour of foragers.

  10. Comparing System Dynamics and Agent-Based Simulation for Tumour Growth and its Interactions with Effector Cells

    CERN Document Server

    Figueredo, Grazziela P

    2011-01-01

    There is little research concerning comparisons and combination of System Dynamics Simulation (SDS) and Agent Based Simulation (ABS). ABS is a paradigm used in many levels of abstraction, including those levels covered by SDS. We believe that the establishment of frameworks for the choice between these two simulation approaches would contribute to the simulation research. Hence, our work aims for the establishment of directions for the choice between SDS and ABS approaches for immune system-related problems. Previously, we compared the use of ABS and SDS for modelling agents' behaviour in an environment with nomovement or interactions between these agents. We concluded that for these types of agents it is preferable to use SDS, as it takes up less computational resources and produces the same results as those obtained by the ABS model. In order to move this research forward, our next research question is: if we introduce interactions between these agents will SDS still be the most appropriate paradigm to be u...

  11. The contribution of agent-based simulations to conservation management on a Natura 2000 site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Hélène; Gourmelon, Françoise; Rouan, Mathias; Le Viol, Isabelle; Kerbiriou, Christian

    2016-03-01

    The conservation of biodiversity today must include the participation and support of local stakeholders. Natura 2000 can be considered as a conservation system that, in its application in most EU countries, relies on the participation of local stakeholders. Our study proposes a scientific method for participatory modelling, with the aim of contributing to the conservation management of habitats and species at a Natura 2000 site (Crozon Peninsula, Bretagne, France) that is representative of in landuse changes in coastal areas. We make use of companion modelling and its associated tools (scenario-planning, GIS, multi-agent modelling and simulations) to consider possible futures through the co-construction of management scenarios and the understanding of their consequences on different indicators of biodiversity status (habitats, avifauna, flora). The maintenance of human activities as they have been carried out since the creation of the Natura 2000s zone allows the biodiversity values to remain stable. Extensive agricultural activities have been shown to be essential to this maintenance, whereas management sustained by the multiplication of conservation actions brings about variable results according to the indicators. None of the scenarios has a positive incidence on the set of indicators. However, an understanding of the modelling system and the results of the simulations allow for the refining of the selection of conservation actions in relation to the species to be preserved.

  12. ActivitySim: large-scale agent based activity generation for infrastructure simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gali, Emmanuel [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Eidenbenz, Stephan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mniszewski, Sue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Cuellar, Leticia [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Teuscher, Christof [PORTLAND STATE UNIV

    2008-01-01

    The United States' Department of Homeland Security aims to model, simulate, and analyze critical infrastructure and their interdependencies across multiple sectors such as electric power, telecommunications, water distribution, transportation, etc. We introduce ActivitySim, an activity simulator for a population of millions of individual agents each characterized by a set of demographic attributes that is based on US census data. ActivitySim generates daily schedules for each agent that consists of a sequence of activities, such as sleeping, shopping, working etc., each being scheduled at a geographic location, such as businesses or private residences that is appropriate for the activity type and for the personal situation of the agent. ActivitySim has been developed as part of a larger effort to understand the interdependencies among national infrastructure networks and their demand profiles that emerge from the different activities of individuals in baseline scenarios as well as emergency scenarios, such as hurricane evacuations. We present the scalable software engineering principles underlying ActivitySim, the socia-technical modeling paradigms that drive the activity generation, and proof-of-principle results for a scenario in the Twin Cities, MN area of 2.6 M agents.

  13. R&D networks and regional knowledge production: an agent-based simulation of the Austrian competence centres programme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Korber

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Publicly funded competence centres have gained high recognition for improving science-industry collaboration. With the requirement for long-term and geographically concentrated R&D, competence centres provide an environment for joint learning and transfer of “sticky” knowledge. The objective of this paper is to investigate how a competence centres programme affects knowledge production in the regional innovation system. In order to address this issue, we draw on a simulation approach and develop an agent-based model of the Vienna Life Sciences innovation system. Companies, research organisations and universities are heterogeneous agents that create scientific publications, patents, as well as high-tech jobs. Simulation runs refer to long-term scenarios regarding the level and duration of public funding. By addressing the complexities of knowledge interaction in the context of the “local buzz” versus “global pipelines” discussion, the results show the potential of empirically calibrated simulation models for ex-ante impact assessment in R&D policy.

  14. An Agent-Based Simulation for Investigating the Impact of Stereotypes on Task-Oriented Group Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghami, Mahsa; Sukthankar, Gita

    In this paper, we introduce an agent-based simulation for investigating the impact of social factors on the formation and evolution of task-oriented groups. Task-oriented groups are created explicitly to perform a task, and all members derive benefits from task completion. However, even in cases when all group members act in a way that is locally optimal for task completion, social forces that have mild effects on choice of associates can have a measurable impact on task completion performance. In this paper, we show how our simulation can be used to model the impact of stereotypes on group formation. In our simulation, stereotypes are based on observable features, learned from prior experience, and only affect an agent's link formation preferences. Even without assuming stereotypes affect the agents' willingness or ability to complete tasks, the long-term modifications that stereotypes have on the agents' social network impair the agents' ability to form groups with sufficient diversity of skills, as compared to agents who form links randomly. An interesting finding is that this effect holds even in cases where stereotype preference and skill existence are completely uncorrelated.

  15. Simulating Biological and Non-Biological Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruzzo, Angela; Gesierich, Benno; Wohlschlager, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the brain processes biological and non-biological movements in distinct neural circuits. Biological motion, in contrast to non-biological motion, refers to active movements of living beings. Aim of our experiment was to investigate the mechanisms underlying mental simulation of these two movement types. Subjects had to…

  16. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-10-04

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  17. ON AGENT-BASED REAL ESTATE PRICING SIMULATION%基于Agent的房价仿真研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘聪

    2012-01-01

    Analysis and prediction of real estate pricing is the focus and difficulty at present. The Agent-based modelling and simulation technology is able to construct a quite intact model for real estate pricing model. The real estate market and land market, as well as various related Agents such as the land provider, the developer, the buyer, the seller, and the investor, etc. are included in the model. By depicting the actions, decision making and interactions of these Agents, one can observe the results and phenomena emerged macroscopically from various environmental policies. In the model simulation, the impacts of the factors such as land supply, investment behaviour, interest rate, inflation rate, etc. on a variety of real estate pricing are studied and analysed. The simulation result well reflects and explains the status quo of the real estate pricing.%房价分析和预测是当前的热点和难点.基于Agent建模仿真技术,构建了较为完整的房价模型.模型包括房产市场和土地市场,以及房价相关各种主体,如土地供应者、开发商、买房者、投资者.通过刻画这些主体的行为、决策及交互,观察在不同的环境政策下,宏观涌现出来的结果和现象.模型仿真中研究和分析了土地供应、投资行为、利率、通胀等因素对房价走势的影响.仿真结果能较好地反映和解释房价的现实状况.

  18. Towards a conceptual multi-agent-based framework to simulate the spatial group decision-making process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghavami, Seyed Morsal; Taleai, Mohammad

    2017-04-01

    Most spatial problems are multi-actor, multi-issue and multi-phase in nature. In addition to their intrinsic complexity, spatial problems usually involve groups of actors from different organizational and cognitive backgrounds, all of whom participate in a social structure to resolve or reduce the complexity of a given problem. Hence, it is important to study and evaluate what different aspects influence the spatial problem resolution process. Recently, multi-agent systems consisting of groups of separate agent entities all interacting with each other have been put forward as appropriate tools to use to study and resolve such problems. In this study, then in order to generate a better level of understanding regarding the spatial problem group decision-making process, a conceptual multi-agent-based framework is used that represents and specifies all the necessary concepts and entities needed to aid group decision making, based on a simulation of the group decision-making process as well as the relationships that exist among the different concepts involved. The study uses five main influencing entities as concepts in the simulation process: spatial influence, individual-level influence, group-level influence, negotiation influence and group performance measures. Further, it explains the relationship among different concepts in a descriptive rather than explanatory manner. To illustrate the proposed framework, the approval process for an urban land use master plan in Zanjan—a provincial capital in Iran—is simulated using MAS, the results highlighting the effectiveness of applying an MAS-based framework when wishing to study the group decision-making process used to resolve spatial problems.

  19. “Space, the Final Frontier”: How Good are Agent-Based Models at Simulating Individuals and Space in Cities?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Heppenstall

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities are complex systems, comprising of many interacting parts. How we simulate and understand causality in urban systems is continually evolving. Over the last decade the agent-based modeling (ABM paradigm has provided a new lens for understanding the effects of interactions of individuals and how through such interactions macro structures emerge, both in the social and physical environment of cities. However, such a paradigm has been hindered due to computational power and a lack of large fine scale datasets. Within the last few years we have witnessed a massive increase in computational processing power and storage, combined with the onset of Big Data. Today geographers find themselves in a data rich era. We now have access to a variety of data sources (e.g., social media, mobile phone data, etc. that tells us how, and when, individuals are using urban spaces. These data raise several questions: can we effectively use them to understand and model cities as complex entities? How well have ABM approaches lent themselves to simulating the dynamics of urban processes? What has been, or will be, the influence of Big Data on increasing our ability to understand and simulate cities? What is the appropriate level of spatial analysis and time frame to model urban phenomena? Within this paper we discuss these questions using several examples of ABM applied to urban geography to begin a dialogue about the utility of ABM for urban modeling. The arguments that the paper raises are applicable across the wider research environment where researchers are considering using this approach.

  20. Towards a conceptual multi-agent-based framework to simulate the spatial group decision-making process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghavami, Seyed Morsal; Taleai, Mohammad

    2016-11-01

    Most spatial problems are multi-actor, multi-issue and multi-phase in nature. In addition to their intrinsic complexity, spatial problems usually involve groups of actors from different organizational and cognitive backgrounds, all of whom participate in a social structure to resolve or reduce the complexity of a given problem. Hence, it is important to study and evaluate what different aspects influence the spatial problem resolution process. Recently, multi-agent systems consisting of groups of separate agent entities all interacting with each other have been put forward as appropriate tools to use to study and resolve such problems. In this study, then in order to generate a better level of understanding regarding the spatial problem group decision-making process, a conceptual multi-agent-based framework is used that represents and specifies all the necessary concepts and entities needed to aid group decision making, based on a simulation of the group decision-making process as well as the relationships that exist among the different concepts involved. The study uses five main influencing entities as concepts in the simulation process: spatial influence, individual-level influence, group-level influence, negotiation influence and group performance measures. Further, it explains the relationship among different concepts in a descriptive rather than explanatory manner. To illustrate the proposed framework, the approval process for an urban land use master plan in Zanjan—a provincial capital in Iran—is simulated using MAS, the results highlighting the effectiveness of applying an MAS-based framework when wishing to study the group decision-making process used to resolve spatial problems.

  1. Agent based simulation on the process of human flesh search-From perspective of knowledge and emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hou; Hu, Bin

    2017-03-01

    Human flesh search as a new net crowed behavior, on the one hand can help us to find some special information, on the other hand may lead to privacy leaking and offending human right. In order to study the mechanism of human flesh search, this paper proposes a simulation model based on agent-based model and complex networks. The computational experiments show some useful results. Discovered information quantity and involved personal ratio are highly correlated, and most of net citizens will take part in the human flesh search or will not take part in the human flesh search. Knowledge quantity does not influence involved personal ratio, but influences whether HFS can find out the target human. When the knowledge concentrates on hub nodes, the discovered information quantity is either perfect or almost zero. Emotion of net citizens influences both discovered information quantity and involved personal ratio. Concretely, when net citizens are calm to face the search topic, it will be hardly to find out the target; But when net citizens are agitated, the target will be found out easily.

  2. Development Approaches Coupled with Verification and Validation Methodologies for Agent-Based Mission-Level Analytical Combat Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-03-01

    Where Computers Meet Biology, Vintage Books, a division of Random House, Inc.: New York NY. 117. Liu, Bing, Siew-Hwee Choo , Shee-Ling Lok, Sing-Meng...Simpkins, Scott D., Eugene P. Paulo, , and Lyn R. Whitaker (2001) “Case Study in Modeling and Simulation Validation Methodology”. Proceedings of

  3. Understanding coupled natural and human systems on fire prone landscapes: integrating wildfire simulation into an agent based planning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Ana; Ager, Alan; Preisler, Haiganoush; Day, Michelle; Spies, Tom; Bolte, John

    2015-04-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) allow users to examine the long-term effects of agent decisions in complex systems where multiple agents and processes interact. This framework has potential application to study the dynamics of coupled natural and human systems where multiple stimuli determine trajectories over both space and time. We used Envision, a landscape based ABM, to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics in a heterogeneous, multi-owner landscape in Oregon, USA. Landscape dynamics are affected by land management policies, actors decisions, and autonomous processes such as vegetation succession, wildfire, or at a broader scale, climate change. Key questions include: 1) How are landscape dynamics influenced by policies and institutions, and 2) How do land management policies and actor decisions interact to produce intended and unintended consequences with respect to wildfire on fire-prone landscapes. Applying Envision to address these questions required the development of a wildfire module that could accurately simulate wildfires on the heterogeneous landscapes within the study area in terms of replicating historical fire size distribution, spatial distribution and fire intensity. In this paper we describe the development and testing of a mechanistic fire simulation system within Envision and application of the model on a 3.2 million fire prone landscape in central Oregon USA. The core fire spread equations use the Minimum Travel Time algorithm developed by M Finney. The model operates on a daily time step and uses a fire prediction system based on the relationship between energy release component and historical fires. Specifically, daily wildfire probabilities and sizes are generated from statistical analyses of historical fires in relation to daily ERC values. The MTT was coupled with the vegetation dynamics module in Envision to allow communication between the respective subsystem and effectively model fire effects and vegetation dynamics after a wildfire. Canopy and

  4. Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, J. S.

    2004-12-01

    Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in

  5. Agent-based modeling of host-pathogen systems: The successes and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Amy L; Beauchemin, Catherine A A; Perelson, Alan S

    2009-04-29

    Agent-based models have been employed to describe numerous processes in immunology. Simulations based on these types of models have been used to enhance our understanding of immunology and disease pathology. We review various agent-based models relevant to host-pathogen systems and discuss their contributions to our understanding of biological processes. We then point out some limitations and challenges of agent-based models and encourage efforts towards reproducibility and model validation.

  6. Modelling Temporal Schedule of Urban Trains Using Agent-Based Simulation and NSGA2-BASED Multiobjective Optimization Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahelgozin, M.; Alimohammadi, A.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing distances between locations of residence and services leads to a large number of daily commutes in urban areas. Developing subway systems has been taken into consideration of transportation managers as a response to this huge amount of travel demands. In developments of subway infrastructures, representing a temporal schedule for trains is an important task; because an appropriately designed timetable decreases Total passenger travel times, Total Operation Costs and Energy Consumption of trains. Since these variables are not positively correlated, subway scheduling is considered as a multi-criteria optimization problem. Therefore, proposing a proper solution for subway scheduling has been always a controversial issue. On the other hand, research on a phenomenon requires a summarized representation of the real world that is known as Model. In this study, it is attempted to model temporal schedule of urban trains that can be applied in Multi-Criteria Subway Schedule Optimization (MCSSO) problems. At first, a conceptual framework is represented for MCSSO. Then, an agent-based simulation environment is implemented to perform Sensitivity Analysis (SA) that is used to extract the interrelations between the framework components. These interrelations is then taken into account in order to construct the proposed model. In order to evaluate performance of the model in MCSSO problems, Tehran subway line no. 1 is considered as the case study. Results of the study show that the model was able to generate an acceptable distribution of Pareto-optimal solutions which are applicable in the real situations while solving a MCSSO is the goal. Also, the accuracy of the model in representing the operation of subway systems was significant.

  7. MODELLING TEMPORAL SCHEDULE OF URBAN TRAINS USING AGENT-BASED SIMULATION AND NSGA2-BASED MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sahelgozin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Increasing distances between locations of residence and services leads to a large number of daily commutes in urban areas. Developing subway systems has been taken into consideration of transportation managers as a response to this huge amount of travel demands. In developments of subway infrastructures, representing a temporal schedule for trains is an important task; because an appropriately designed timetable decreases Total passenger travel times, Total Operation Costs and Energy Consumption of trains. Since these variables are not positively correlated, subway scheduling is considered as a multi-criteria optimization problem. Therefore, proposing a proper solution for subway scheduling has been always a controversial issue. On the other hand, research on a phenomenon requires a summarized representation of the real world that is known as Model. In this study, it is attempted to model temporal schedule of urban trains that can be applied in Multi-Criteria Subway Schedule Optimization (MCSSO problems. At first, a conceptual framework is represented for MCSSO. Then, an agent-based simulation environment is implemented to perform Sensitivity Analysis (SA that is used to extract the interrelations between the framework components. These interrelations is then taken into account in order to construct the proposed model. In order to evaluate performance of the model in MCSSO problems, Tehran subway line no. 1 is considered as the case study. Results of the study show that the model was able to generate an acceptable distribution of Pareto-optimal solutions which are applicable in the real situations while solving a MCSSO is the goal. Also, the accuracy of the model in representing the operation of subway systems was significant.

  8. Analysis of CDC social control measures using an agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic in a city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettema Dick

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The transmission of infectious disease amongst the human population is a complex process which requires advanced, often individual-based, models to capture the space-time details observed in reality. Methods An Individual Space-Time Activity-based Model (ISTAM was applied to simulate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical control measures including: (1 refraining from social activities, (2 school closure and (3 household quarantine, for a hypothetical influenza outbreak in an urban area. Results Amongst the set of control measures tested, refraining from social activities with various compliance levels was relatively ineffective. Household quarantine was very effective, especially for the peak number of cases and total number of cases, with large differences between compliance levels. Household quarantine resulted in a decrease in the peak number of cases from more than 300 to around 158 for a 100% compliance level, a decrease of about 48.7%. The delay in the outbreak peak was about 3 to 17 days. The total number of cases decreased to a range of 3635-5403, that is, 63.7%-94.7% of the baseline value. When coupling control measures, household quarantine together with school closure was the most effective strategy. The resulting space-time distribution of infection in different classes of activity bundles (AB suggests that the epidemic outbreak is strengthened amongst children and then spread to adults. By sensitivity analysis, this study demonstrated that earlier implementation of control measures leads to greater efficacy. Also, for infectious diseases with larger basic reproduction number, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures was shown to be limited. Conclusions Simulated results showed that household quarantine was the most effective control measure, while school closure and household quarantine implemented together achieved the greatest benefit. Agent-based models should be applied in the future to evaluate the

  9. Modelling and simulation of electrical energy systems through a complex systems approach using agent-based models. Case study: Under-frequency load shedding for refrigerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremers, Enrique [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe (Germany). European Inst. for Energy Research (EIFER); Gonzalez de Durana, Jose Maria; Barambones, Oscar [Universidad del Pais Vasco, Vitoria (Spain). Escuela Universitaria de Ingenieria de Vitoria-Gasteiz

    2013-09-01

    One of the ways of studying complex systems is through modelling and simulation, which are used as tools to represent these systems in a virtual environment. Current advances in computing performance (which has been a major constraint in this field for some time) allow for the simulation these kinds of systems within reasonable time horizons. One of the tools for simulating complex systems is agent-based modelling. This individual-centric approach is based on autonomous entities that can interact with each other, thus modelling the system in a disaggregated way. Agent-based models can be coupled with other modelling methods, such as continuous models and discrete events, which can be embedded or run in parallel to the multi-agent system. When representing the electrical energy system in a systemic and multi-layered way, it is treated as a true socio-technical system, in which not only technical models are taken into account, but also socio-behavioural ones. In this work, a number of different models for the parts of an electrical system are presented, related to production, demand and storage. The models are intended to be as simple as possible in order to be simulated in an integrated framework representing the system as a whole. Furthermore, the models allow the inclusion of social behaviour and other, not purely engineering-related aspects of the system, which have to be considered from a complex point of view. (orig.)

  10. Analysis and prediction of effects of the Manchester Triage System on patient waiting times in an emergency department by means of agent-based simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schaaf, Michael

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available [english] A simulation of complex clinical processes is a challenging task and suitable methods need to be found which can capture the influence of relevant factors and their relationships. The Manchester triage system (MTS is widely used in German emergency departments (ED, however the impact on patient waiting times remain difficult to predict. The purpose of this work is the assessment of MTS particularly with regard to the waiting times of different degrees of severity. The methodology of agent based simulation was found suitable for the ED domain and the agent based simulation tool SeSAm was chosen due to its intuitive user interface and easy adaption of the simulation models. Altogether four agent classes could be implemented based on the information derived from a process model. The model permits a dynamic simulation of the ED processes and a reliable assessment of patient waiting times. In addition, the implementation of a triage nurse allowed the simulation of the triage process and a direct comparison to the current state without a standardized triage procedure. Essential influencing factors (e.g. number of patients, manning level were implemented and their effects on the ED processes and patient waiting times assessed. The simulation runs delivered correct results based on the underlying process model and the collected statistical data. The process flow and the waiting times of an ED could be mapped exactly. In all simulation runs the waiting times of high triage levels (MTS-levels 1 and 2 could be reduced. Especially patients of MTS-level 2 in the waiting area of the ED benefit significantly from the implementation of a standardized triage procedure and the associated permanent monitoring.

  11. Thread Group Multithreading: Accelerating the Computation of an Agent-Based Power System Modeling and Simulation Tool -- C GridLAB-D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Shuangshuang; Chassin, David P.

    2014-01-06

    GridLAB-DTM is an open source next generation agent-based smart-grid simulator that provides unprecedented capability to model the performance of smart grid technologies. Over the past few years, GridLAB-D has been used to conduct important analyses of smart grid concepts, but it is still quite limited by its computational performance. In order to break through the performance bottleneck to meet the need for large scale power grid simulations, we develop a thread group mechanism to implement highly granular multithreaded computation in GridLAB-D. We achieve close to linear speedups on multithreading version compared against the single-thread version of the same code running on general purpose multi-core commodity for a benchmark simple house model. The performance of the multithreading code shows favorable scalability properties and resource utilization, and much shorter execution time for large-scale power grid simulations.

  12. Rural-urban migration including formal and informal workers in the urban sector: an agent-based numerical simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branco, Nilton; Oliveira, Tharnier; Silveira, Jaylson

    2012-02-01

    The goal of this work is to study rural-urban migration in the early stages of industrialization. We use an agent-based model and take into account the existence of informal and formal workers on the urban sector and possible migration movements, dependent on the agents' social and private utilities. Our agents are place on vertices of a square lattice, such that each vertex has only one agent. Rural, urban informal and urban formal workers are represented by different states of a three-state Ising model. At every step, a fraction a of the agents may change sectors or migrate. The total utility of a given agent is then calculated and compared to a random utility, in order to check if this agent turns into an actual migrant or changes sector. The dynamics is carried out until an equilibrium state is reached and equilibrium variables are then calculated and compared to available data. We find that a generalized Harris-Todaro condition is satisfied [1] on these equilibrium regimes, i.e, the ratio between expected wages between any pair of sectors reach a constant value. [4pt] [1] J. J. Silveira, A. L. Esp'indola and T. J. Penna, Physica A, 364, 445 (2006).

  13. Land use and land cover changes simulated with agent-based modelling for water conservation at catchment scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giełda-Pinas Katarzyna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Various factors influence the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover and land use in lakeland landscapes. Land use/cover change (LUCC is one of the crucial factors influencing both natural processes that occur in lakelands and lakes and anthropogenic processes, which intensify these changes. Therefore, LUCC at a local and regional scale may be treated as an important geoindicator for the functioning of the lakeland landscape. Nowadays, LUCC mostly depends on different human decisions. In the existing literature, the consequences of negative changes have already been widely recognized. Conversely, in this paper, we focus on the possible positive effects of LUCC. To that end, we built an agent-based model to show how selected human decisions may positively influence lakeland landscapes and lakes. We apply the model to the Gniezno Lakeland, Poland. Based on the environmental decisions of farmers, the model demonstrates how the LUCC pattern may change in time and space and how those changes may influence freshwater quality in four individual lake catchments of the Gniezno Lakeland.

  14. Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model

  15. Orientation Computing in Agent-Based Crowd Simulation%Agent-Based群体模拟中的朝向计算方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶青; 夏时洪; 毛天露; 蒋浩

    2011-01-01

    In agent-based crowd simulation, previous methods for computing orientation will lead to abrupt changes in agent's orientation, or generate stiffly turning behaviors. Therefore, the 3D performance of high-density crowd simulation deviates from reality. This paper presents a double-layer orientation fairing method for agent-based crowd animation. The theoretical layer computes an initial value of the individual orientation, considering the expected direction, the angular momentum constraints and the interfered rotation caused by surrounding obstacles. The numerical layer uses filtering technology for processing orientation data. The final orientation is interpolated between results from the two layers in hyperspherical space of quaternion. The method has proved to be effective to generate non-oscillatory and natural individual orientation, even for high-density crowd in complex environment.%基于智能体(agent-based)的群体模拟中,已有的朝向计算方法易产生个体的朝向突变或僵硬的转弯行为,导致高密度群体的三维运动效果失真.为此提出一种适用于agent-based模型的双层朝向处理方法.在理论层上,依据角动量约束构建出朝向旋转方程,在计算路径过程中综合考虑个体期望方向、角速度约束、外部干扰转动等因素,计算个体朝向的初值;在数据层上,采用朝向过滤技术对初值进行处理,并在四元素空间内进行球面插值,最终生成群体的运动朝向.实验结果证明,该方法能实时地计算出自然平滑的高密度群体朝向数据.

  16. Autonomous-agent based simulation of anti-submarine warfare operations with the goal of protecting a high value unit

    OpenAIRE

    Akbori, Fahrettin

    2004-01-01

    Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The Anti-Submarine Warfare screen design simulation is a program that provides a model for operations in anti-submarine warfare (ASW). The purpose of the program is to aid ASW commanders, allowing them to configure an ASW screen, including the sonar policy, convoy speed, and the number of ships, to gain insight into how these and other factors beyond their control, such as water conditions, impact ASW effectiveness. It is also designed to...

  17. Novel Role of Rural Official Organization in the Biomass-Based Power Supply Chain in China: A Combined Game Theory and Agent-Based Simulation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaiyan Luo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Developing biomass-based power generation is helpful for China to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and to release the targets of carbon emission peak. The decentralized farming method leads to Chinese farmers’ weak willingness to collect and sell crop residues to biomass-based power plants. The purpose of this paper is to solve the issue by proposing a novel biomass feedstock supply model with China’s rural official organization—villagers’ committee, which has great influence on villagers’ decision making. Introducing it into the biomass-based power supply chain is beneficial to motivating farmers’ supplying enthusiasm. A combined game theory and agent-based simulation approach is applied to study the effectiveness of this new supply model. Multiple simulation scenarios are built to study impacts of different simulation parameters, and results show that farmers tend to supply more biomass material for electricity production in the proposed villagers’ committee model, compared with the two conventional supply models, direct-deal and broker models. The supply model incorporating the rural official organization can ensure the feedstock sufficiency for plants. A proper model design depends on the feed-in tariff subsidy for biomass-based electricity, feedstock shipping distance, performance appraisal system of the villagers’ committee, as well as farmers’ utility weights on net income and public service improvement.

  18. 基于Agent的居民就医选择建模与仿真%Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Research into Residents Healthcare Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程贲; 李兴兵; 鲁延京; 谭跃进

    2009-01-01

    基于Agent建模仿真是医疗服务领域中问题研究和政策分析的一种新方法.在分析目前医疗领域中居民就医选择现状的基础上,基于Agent的建模方法,对医疗系统中的主要对象--医院、社区医疗服务机构、居民的行为进行了建模,开发了基于Anylogic的居民就医选择的仿真原型,研究了居民的就医选择问题,分析扩大不同医疗机构的费用差距及增加区域内社区医疗服务机构数量两项政策对居民就医选择的影响.实验结果说明通过调节医院与社区诊所的医疗服务的价格比,能够影响居民就医选择,但增加医院的医疗服务的价格会造成部分低收入居民无法就医;区域内社区诊所与医院的比例在2~4倍时,对降低居民无法就医的比例是有效的.%Agent-based modeling and simulation is a new methodology in the field of healthcare service research and relevant policy analysis. Applying agent-based modeling and simulation methodology, we research the problem of residents' healthcare selection and construct health service models for hospitals, residents and communities. Applying the simulation tool -AnyLogic, we analyze the effects of two policies on residents' health care choice, which involve enlarging the price gap of different healthcare institutions and increasing the number of healthcare service agencies in communities within a region. The experiment result illustrates that changing the cost ratio of hospital and community service has a significant impact on residents' selection decision, while the rising of the price of healthcare service makes residents with low income unable to afford the expense of healthcare service, and that the proper ratio of the number of community health service agencies to that of hospitals within a certain region is 2 to 4.

  19. Stochastic simulation in systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Székely, Tamás; Burrage, Kevin

    2014-11-01

    Natural systems are, almost by definition, heterogeneous: this can be either a boon or an obstacle to be overcome, depending on the situation. Traditionally, when constructing mathematical models of these systems, heterogeneity has typically been ignored, despite its critical role. However, in recent years, stochastic computational methods have become commonplace in science. They are able to appropriately account for heterogeneity; indeed, they are based around the premise that systems inherently contain at least one source of heterogeneity (namely, intrinsic heterogeneity). In this mini-review, we give a brief introduction to theoretical modelling and simulation in systems biology and discuss the three different sources of heterogeneity in natural systems. Our main topic is an overview of stochastic simulation methods in systems biology. There are many different types of stochastic methods. We focus on one group that has become especially popular in systems biology, biochemistry, chemistry and physics. These discrete-state stochastic methods do not follow individuals over time; rather they track only total populations. They also assume that the volume of interest is spatially homogeneous. We give an overview of these methods, with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each, and suggest when each is more appropriate to use. We also include references to software implementations of them, so that beginners can quickly start using stochastic methods for practical problems of interest.

  20. Agent-Based Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Jędrzejowicz, Piotr; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    This volume presents a collection of original research works by leading specialists focusing on novel and promising approaches in which the multi-agent system paradigm is used to support, enhance or replace traditional approaches to solving difficult optimization problems. The editors have invited several well-known specialists to present their solutions, tools, and models falling under the common denominator of the agent-based optimization. The book consists of eight chapters covering examples of application of the multi-agent paradigm and respective customized tools to solve  difficult optimization problems arising in different areas such as machine learning, scheduling, transportation and, more generally, distributed and cooperative problem solving.

  1. Agent-Based Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Sim, Kwang Mong

    2012-01-01

    Agent-based cloud computing is concerned with the design and development of software agents for bolstering cloud service\\ud discovery, service negotiation, and service composition. The significance of this work is introducing an agent-based paradigm for\\ud constructing software tools and testbeds for cloud resource management. The novel contributions of this work include: 1) developing\\ud Cloudle: an agent-based search engine for cloud service discovery, 2) showing that agent-based negotiatio...

  2. Agent- based Supply Chain Evolution and Repast S Simulation%基于Agent的供应链演化及Repast S仿真

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    辛玉红; 江炳辉

    2011-01-01

    针对具有复杂自适应性的供应链系统,提出基于Agent的供应链演化及Repast仿真模型.模型中把供应链内部成员的进化模型归纳为四个子模型:学习子模型、创新子模型、反馈子模型以及战略子模型.通过Re-past S仿真实验表明,该模型中内部成员的进化模型可以使得供应链系统更优,具有更强的鲁棒性,很好地反映了供应链复杂系统的演化规律.%Supply chain, as an effective way to upgrade the competitiveness of enterprises, is researched in -depth by more and more scholars.In this paper, the model of agent - based supply chain evolution and repast S simulation is proposed according to the supply chain system that possesses complexity and adaptability.We divide the evolutionary model of supply chain members into four sub - models: learning sub - model, innovation sub - model, feedback sub - model and strategy sub model.By the results of repast S simulation, it shows that the evolutionary model of supply chain members can make better supply chain system with more robustness, and it can well reflect the regular patterns of complex systems in the supply chain.

  3. Agent-based modelling of cholera diffusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Doldersum, Tom; Useya, Juliana; Augustijn, Denie

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model for micro-scale cholera diffusion. The model simulates both an environmental reservoir of naturally occurring V. cholerae bacteria and hyperinfectious V. cholerae. Objective of the research is to test if runoff from open refuse

  4. Agent-based modelling of cholera diffusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Doldersum, Tom; Useya, Juliana; Augustijn, Denie

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model for micro-scale cholera diffusion. The model simulates both an environmental reservoir of naturally occurring V.cholerae bacteria and hyperinfectious V. cholerae. Objective of the research is to test if runoff from open refuse d

  5. An Agent Based Classification Model

    CERN Document Server

    Gu, Feng; Greensmith, Julie

    2009-01-01

    The major function of this model is to access the UCI Wisconsin Breast Can- cer data-set[1] and classify the data items into two categories, which are normal and anomalous. This kind of classifi cation can be referred as anomaly detection, which discriminates anomalous behaviour from normal behaviour in computer systems. One popular solution for anomaly detection is Artifi cial Immune Sys- tems (AIS). AIS are adaptive systems inspired by theoretical immunology and observed immune functions, principles and models which are applied to prob- lem solving. The Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA)[2] is an AIS algorithm that is developed specifi cally for anomaly detection. It has been successfully applied to intrusion detection in computer security. It is believed that agent-based mod- elling is an ideal approach for implementing AIS, as intelligent agents could be the perfect representations of immune entities in AIS. This model evaluates the feasibility of re-implementing the DCA in an agent-based simulation environ- ...

  6. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  7. Spatial Aspects in Biological System Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Resat, Haluk; Costa, Michelle N.; Shankaran, Harish

    2011-01-30

    Mathematical models of the dynamical properties of biological systems aim to improve our understanding of the studied system with the ultimate goal of being able to predict system responses in the absence of experimentation. Despite the enormous advances that have been made in biological modeling and simulation, the inherently multiscale character of biological systems and the stochasticity of biological processes continue to present significant computational and conceptual challenges. Biological systems often consist of well-organized structural hierarchies, which inevitably lead to multiscale problems. This chapter introduces and discusses the advantages and shortcomings of several simulation methods that are being used by the scientific community to investigate the spatio-temporal properties of model biological systems. We first describe the foundations of the methods and then describe their relevance and possible application areas with illustrative examples from our own research. Possible ways to address the encountered computational difficulties are also discussed.

  8. Agent-based Modeling Methodology for Analyzing Weapons Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    43 Figure 14: Simulation Study Methodology for the Weapon System Analysis Metrics Definition and Data Collection The analysis plan calls for...AGENT-BASED MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING WEAPONS SYSTEMS THESIS Casey D. Connors, Major, USA...AGENT-BASED MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING WEAPONS SYSTEMS THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences

  9. Computer Simulation and Computabiblity of Biological Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Baianu, I C

    2004-01-01

    The ability to simulate a biological organism by employing a computer is related to the ability of the computer to calculate the behavior of such a dynamical system, or the "computability" of the system. However, the two questions of computability and simulation are not equivalent. Since the question of computability can be given a precise answer in terms of recursive functions, automata theory and dynamical systems, it will be appropriate to consider it first. The more elusive question of adequate simulation of biological systems by a computer will be then addressed and a possible connection between the two answers given will be considered as follows. A symbolic, algebraic-topological "quantum computer" (as introduced in Baianu, 1971b) is here suggested to provide one such potential means for adequate biological simulations based on QMV Quantum Logic and meta-Categorical Modeling as for example in a QMV-based, Quantum-Topos (Baianu and Glazebrook,2004.

  10. Agent-Based Collaborative Traffic Flow Management Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose agent-based game-theoretic approaches for simulation of strategies involved in multi-objective collaborative traffic flow management (CTFM). Intelligent...

  11. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  12. Exploring Intra-Urban Accessibility and Impacts of Pollution Policies with an Agent-Based Simulation Platform: GaMiroD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Fosset

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we address the issue of sustainable cities by focusing on one of their very central components: daily mobility. Indeed, if cities can be interpreted as spatial organizations allowing social interactions, the number of daily movements needed to reach this goal is continuously increasing. Therefore, improving urban accessibility merely results in increasing traffic and its negative externalities (congestion, accidents, pollution, noise, etc., while eventually reducing the quality of life of people in the city. This is why several urban-transport policies are implemented in order to reduce individual mobility impacts while maintaining equitable access to the city. This challenge is however non-trivial and therefore we propose to investigate this issue from the complex systems point of view. The real spatial-temporal urban accessibility of citizens cannot be approximated just by focusing on space and implies taking into account the space-time activity patterns of individuals, in a more dynamic way. Thus, given the importance of local interactions in such a perspective, an agent based approach seems to be a relevant solution. This kind of individual based and “interactionist” approach allows us to explore the possible impact of individual behaviors on the overall dynamics of the city but also the possible impact of global measures on individual behaviors. In this paper, we give an overview of the Miro Project and then focus on the GaMiroD model design from real data analysis to model exploration tuned by transportation-oriented scenarios. Among them, we start with the the impact of a LEZ (Low Emission Zone in the city center.

  13. Biological transportation networks: Modeling and simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Albi, Giacomo

    2015-09-15

    We present a model for biological network formation originally introduced by Cai and Hu [Adaptation and optimization of biological transport networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111 (2013) 138701]. The modeling of fluid transportation (e.g., leaf venation and angiogenesis) and ion transportation networks (e.g., neural networks) is explained in detail and basic analytical features like the gradient flow structure of the fluid transportation network model and the impact of the model parameters on the geometry and topology of network formation are analyzed. We also present a numerical finite-element based discretization scheme and discuss sample cases of network formation simulations.

  14. Study of photo-oxidative reactivity of sunscreening agents based on photo-oxidation of uric acid by kinetic Monte Carlo simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moradmand Jalali, Hamed; Bashiri, Hadis, E-mail: hbashiri@kashanu.ac.ir; Rasa, Hossein

    2015-05-01

    In the present study, the mechanism of free radical production by light-reflective agents in sunscreens (TiO{sub 2}, ZnO and ZrO{sub 2}) was obtained by applying kinetic Monte Carlo simulation. The values of the rate constants for each step of the suggested mechanism have been obtained by simulation. The effect of the initial concentration of mineral oxides and uric acid on the rate of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of some sun care agents has been studied. The kinetic Monte Carlo simulation results agree qualitatively with the existing experimental data for the production of free radicals by sun care agents. - Highlights: • The mechanism and kinetics of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of sun care agents has been obtained by simulation. • The mechanism has been used for free radical production of TiO{sub 2} (rutile and anatase), ZnO and ZrO{sub 2}. • The ratios of photo-activity of ZnO to anastase, rutile and ZrO have been obtained. • By doubling the initial concentrations of mineral oxide, the rate of reaction was doubled. • The optimum ratio of initial concentration of mineral oxides to uric acid has been obtained.

  15. microlith : Image Simulation for Biological Phase Microscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Mehta, Shalin B

    2013-01-01

    Accurate simulation of image formation remains under-exploited for biological phase microscopy methods that employ partially coherent illumination, despite being important for the design of imaging systems and the reconstruction algorithms. We present an open-source MATLAB toolbox, microlith (https://code.google.com/p/microlith), that provides accurate simulation of the 3D image of a thin specimen under any partially coherent imaging system, including coherent or incoherent systems. We demonstrate the accuracy of the microlith toolbox by comparing simulated images and experimental images of a phase-only Siemens star test target using dark field and differential interference contrast microscopes. The comparison leads to intriguing insights about the sensitivity of the dark-field microscope to sub-resolution features and effects of specimen birefringence on differential interference contrast.

  16. Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

    CERN Document Server

    Phillips, Andrew; Paulevé, Loïc; 10.4204/EPTCS.40.1

    2010-01-01

    Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instant...

  17. Agent Based Individual Traffic Guidance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wanscher, Jørgen

    This thesis investigates the possibilities in applying Operations Research (OR) to autonomous vehicular traffic. The explicit difference to most other research today is that we presume that an agent is present in every vehicle - hence Agent Based Individual Traffic guidance (ABIT). The next...... evolutionary step for the in-vehicle route planners is the introduction of two-way communication. We presume that the agent is capable of exactly this. Based on this presumption we discuss the possibilities and define a taxonomy and use this to discuss the ABIT system. Based on a set of scenarios we conclude...

  18. Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phillips

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instantiated with the stochastic simulation algorithm known as Gillespie's Direct Method. We also discuss the wider implications of such an abstract machine, and outline how it can be used to simulate multiple calculi simultaneously within a common framework.

  19. Development of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to Simulate the Immune System and Integration of a Regression Method to Estimate the Key ABM Parameters by Fitting the Experimental Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xuming; Chen, Jinghang; Miao, Hongyu; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Le

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) and differential equations (DE) are two commonly used methods for immune system simulation. However, it is difficult for ABM to estimate key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data, whereas the differential equation model is incapable of describing the complicated immune system in detail. To overcome these problems, we developed an integrated ABM regression model (IABMR). It can combine the advantages of ABM and DE by employing ABM to mimic the multi-scale immune system with various phenotypes and types of cells as well as using the input and output of ABM to build up the Loess regression for key parameter estimation. Next, we employed the greedy algorithm to estimate the key parameters of the ABM with respect to the same experimental data set and used ABM to describe a 3D immune system similar to previous studies that employed the DE model. These results indicate that IABMR not only has the potential to simulate the immune system at various scales, phenotypes and cell types, but can also accurately infer the key parameters like DE model. Therefore, this study innovatively developed a complex system development mechanism that could simulate the complicated immune system in detail like ABM and validate the reliability and efficiency of model like DE by fitting the experimental data.

  20. Research on carbon trading market: An agent-based simulation%基于自主体的全球碳交易模拟

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱潜挺; 吴静; 王铮

    2012-01-01

    The carbon trading would be one of the most important parts in climate change in future. Based on agent modeling, this paper establishes a global carbon trading simulation system that includes China, the US, Japan, the EU, the Former Soviet Union, and Rest of the World (ROW). According to the principle of accumulative emission per capita e- qualization and emission reduction targets control, two scenarios simulating global carbon trading are set in this paper, "Ding standard" and "2℃ target" scenarios. The study finds that: (1) the global carbon trading price will increase because of the decreasing quota of carbon emissions both in the "Ding standard" and "2℃ target" scenarios; (2) Carbon trading market will help to transfer fund from developed countries to developing countries (3) Since developed countries can buy emission quota from developing countries, carbon e- mission per capita of developed countries will remain higher than that of developing coun- tries in future; (4) Carbon trading market improves the accumulated global Ramsey's utili ty in both the "Ding standard" or "2℃ target" scenarios. However, "2℃ target" scenario can do better than "Ding standard" scenario both in China's future benefit and in improve- ment of global welfare.%碳交易是未来全球应对气候变化的重要组成部分之一。基于Agent建模技术,开发了一个包含中国、美国、日本、欧盟、前苏联地区以及世界其他地区的全球碳交易模拟系统,并且根据人均累积排放权均等和减排目标控制原则,设置了“丁标准”情景和“2℃目标”情景,对全球碳交易行为展开了模拟研究。研究发现:(1)随着碳排放权的逐年减少,未来碳交易价格将呈上升趋势;(2)碳交易将有助于资金从发达国家向发展中国家转移;(3)由于碳交易允许配额缺口区域向配额盈余区域购买碳排放权,未

  1. Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Ausloos, Marcel; Merlone, Ugo

    2014-01-01

    Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed. It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions, are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem as much as their description through analytical or simulation means. The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior, taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description of the dynamics of the geographical distribution o...

  2. Agent-based modelling of nest site selection by bees and ants

    OpenAIRE

    Bolis, Reem

    2016-01-01

    In this study we develop an agent-based time discrete model to show how honeybees and ants are able to choose the best site available under different circumstances. We focus on the agent-based model introduced by Christian List, Christian Elsholtz and Thomas Seeley in their paper: Independence and interdependence in collective decision making: an agent-based model of nest-site choice by honeybee swarms. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 364(1518...

  3. Structuring Qualitative Data for Agent-Based Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghorbani, Amineh; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.; Schrauwen, Noortje

    2015-01-01

    Using ethnography to build agent-based models may result in more empirically grounded simulations. Our study on innovation practice and culture in the Westland horticulture sector served to explore what information and data from ethnographic analysis could be used in models and how. MAIA, a framewor

  4. An agent-based architecture for multimodal interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, an executable generic process model is proposed for combined verbal and non-verbal communication processes and their interaction. The agent-based architecture can be used to create multimodal interaction. The generic process model has been designed, implemented and used to simulate di

  5. Agent-based simulation model of customer behavior and personalized recommendation%基于Agent的顾客行为及个性化推荐仿真模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金淳; 张一平

    2013-01-01

    针对传统个性化推荐研究方法的局限性,提出一种基于Agent建模与仿真的方法,通过个体的交互作用所产生的涌现特征来分析移动电子商务环境下的顾客行为及个性化推荐策略的有效性.以移动商务环境下的餐饮推荐系统为例,分析了消费活动过程中顾客与服务的交互行为,以及情境因素对顾客消费的影响,构建了服务推荐及顾客行为规则,并在REPAST环境下实现了本Agent仿真模型.仿真结果表明:该模型可有效分析及预测服务推荐和顾客决策的涌现现象,并由此推断顾客总体的消费趋势;同时,考虑情境因素的推荐模型的有效性比单独基于顾客个性化信息的推荐模型有明显提高.%This paper proposes an agent-based modeling and simulation method to overcome the limitations of traditional personalized recommendation method. Customer behavior and the effectiveness of personalized recommendation strategy under mobile electronic commerce were analyzed according to the emergence generated by the interactions of each agent entity. Taking catering recommendation system under mobile e-commerce as an example, this paper analyzed the interactions of customer and server in consuming process and the impact of context to customer consuming, and the recommendation and customer behavior rules were built, then on this basis the agent simulation model was realized under REPAST simulation environment. The simulation results show that this model can analyze and forecast the emergence of server recommendation and customer decision, and accordingly deduce the general consumer trends. Moreover, the effectiveness of recommendation model considering context is enhanced obviously compared with that of model based on only customer personalization information.

  6. 农作物空间格局变化模拟模型的MATLAB实现及应用%Model application of an agent-based model for simulating crop pattern dynamics at regional scale based on MATLAB

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余强毅; 吴文斌; 陈羊阳; 杨鹏; 孟超英; 周清波; 唐华俊

    2014-01-01

    Crop pattern is a key element in agricultural land systems other than land use and land cover. Crop pattern dynamic changes take place very frequently, but they are not always easily observable, making many difficulties for analysis. As an effective tool for understanding the driver, process and consequence of agricultural land system changes, the spatially-explicit agent-based land change models have successfully been applied in representing human and natural interactions on agricultural landscapes. With the assumption that the crop pattern at a regional level is the aggregation of crop choices at the filed level, we conceptualized an agent-based model to simulate crop pattern dynamics at a regional scale (CroPaDy), which was supposed to represent the frequent but uneasily observed crop pattern changes in agricultural land systems. The conceptualization of CroPaDy model was designed strictly following the standard protocol for agent-based modeling. However, the computational model hinders its application because it needs a grid-based representation and the model itself is complicated with multi objectives, and nested by 3 interactive sub modules. As CroPaDy model can hardly been developed by the common agent-based modeling platforms, such as RePast, NetLogo, and Swarm, we are trying to use another alternative MATLAB to realize an empirical based application in an agricultural region of Northeast China, by taking the advantage of powerful and open-accessed matrix computing ability of MATLAB. We coded the model for the 3 interactive sub modules in steps: 1) Agents generating module. The Monte Carlo method was used to generate the internal factors (family attributes) for each individual agent in the full coverage study region by combining GIS data, statistical data, survey data and the individual based blanket rules. 2) Agent classifying module. The back propagation artificial neural network method was used to automatically classify the generated agents to groups

  7. Agent Based Reasoning in Multilevel Flow Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2012-01-01

    to launch the MFM Workbench into an agent based environment, which can complement disadvantages of the original software. The agent-based MFM Workbench is centered on a concept called “Blackboard System” and use an event based mechanism to arrange the reasoning tasks. This design will support the new...

  8. Participatory Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Northern Mountains of Vietnam: the Combined Use of an Agent-Based Model, a Role-Playing Game, and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Christophe Castella

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In Vietnam, the remarkable economic growth that resulted from the doi moi (renovation reforms was based largely on the rural households that had become the new basic unit of agricultural production in the early 1990s. The technical, economic, and social changes that accompanied the decollectivization process transformed agricultural production, resource management, land use, and the institutions that defined access to resources and their distribution. Combined with the extreme biophysical, technical, and social heterogeneity encountered in the northern mountains, these rapid changes led to the extreme complexity of the agrarian dynamics that today challenges traditional diagnostic approaches. Since 1999, a participatory simulation method has been developed to disentangle the cause-and-effect relationships between the different driving forces and changes in land use observed at different scales. Several tools were combined to understand the interactions between human and natural systems, including a narrative conceptual model, an agent-based spatial computational model (ABM, a role-playing game, and a multiscale geographic information system (GIS. We synthesized into an ABM named SAMBA-GIS the knowledge generated from the above tools applied to a representative sample of research sites. The model takes explicitly into account the dynamic interactions among: (1 farmers' strategies, i.e., the individual decision-making process as a function of the farm's resource profile; (2 the institutions that define resource access and usage; and (3 changes in the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. The next step consisted of coupling the ABM with the GIS to extrapolate the application of local management rules to a whole landscape. Simulations are initialized using the layers of the GIS, e.g., land use in 1990, accessibility, soil characteristics, etc., and statistics available at the village level, e.g., population, ethnicity, livestock, etc. At each

  9. Agent Based Model of Young Researchers in Higher Education Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Stepanic

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Group of young researchers in higher education institutions in general perform demandable tasks with relatively high contribution to institutions’ and societies’ innovation production. In order to analyse in more details interaction among young researchers and diverse institutions in society, we aim toward developing the numerical simulation, agent-based model.This article presents foundations of the model, preliminary results of its simulation along with perspectives of its further development and improvements.

  10. Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Niaz Arifin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

  11. Agent-based modeling of sustainable behaviors

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez-Maroño, Noelia; Fontenla-Romero, Oscar; Polhill, J; Craig, Tony; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan

    2017-01-01

    Using the O.D.D. (Overview, Design concepts, Detail) protocol, this title explores the role of agent-based modeling in predicting the feasibility of various approaches to sustainability. The chapters incorporated in this volume consist of real case studies to illustrate the utility of agent-based modeling and complexity theory in discovering a path to more efficient and sustainable lifestyles. The topics covered within include: households' attitudes toward recycling, designing decision trees for representing sustainable behaviors, negotiation-based parking allocation, auction-based traffic signal control, and others. This selection of papers will be of interest to social scientists who wish to learn more about agent-based modeling as well as experts in the field of agent-based modeling.

  12. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  13. Opening the black box—Development, testing and documentation of a mechanistically rich agent-based model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Chris J.; Høye, Toke; Olesen, Carsten Riis

    2010-01-01

    Although increasingly widely used in biology, complex adaptive simulation models such as agent-based models have been criticised for being difficult to communicate and test. This study demonstrates the application of pattern-oriented model testing, and a novel documentation procedure to present...... to the pattern-oriented protocol for testing and developing ecological models of this kind was defined together with the development of the ODdox documentation protocol, a combination of the current ODD protocol for describing agent-based models and source-code documentation. The result is a detailed and yet...... accessible description of the processes included in the model. Application of the model to a comprehensive historical data set supported the hypothesis that interference competition is the primary population regulating factor in the absence of mammal predators in the brown hare, and that the effect works...

  14. The Fractal Simulation Of Biological Shapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickover, Clifford A.

    1989-04-01

    This paper provides a light introduction to simple graphics techniques for visualizing a large class of biological shapes generated from recursive algorithms. In order to capture some of the structural richness inherent in organisms, the algorithms produce not only extreme variability but also a high level of organization. The material primarily comes from previous published works of the author. For a general background on fractal methods in mathematics and science, see Mandelbrot's famous book. For research on the fractal characterization of other biological structures, such as the lung's bronchial tree and the surfaces of protein molecules.

  15. An agent-based multi-scale wind generation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremers, E.; Lewald, N. [Karlsruhe Univ., Karlsruhe (Germany). European Inst. for Energy Research; Barambones, O.; Gonzalez de Durana, J.M. [Univ. of the Basque Country, Vitoria (Spain). Dept. of Engineering

    2009-07-01

    The introduction of renewable energies, the liberalization of energy markets and the emergence of new, distributed producers that feed into the grid at almost every level of the system have all contributed to a paradigm shift in energy systems. This paper presented an agent-based model for simulating wind power systems on multiple time scales. The purpose of the study was to generate a flexible model that would permit simulating the output of a wind farm. The model was developed using multiparadigm modelling. It also combined a variety of approaches such as agent-based modelling, discrete events and dynamic systems. The paper explained the theoretical background concerning the basic models for wind speed generation and power turbines, as well as the fundamentals of agent-based modelling. The implementation of these models was illustrated. The paper also discussed several sample simulations and discussed the application of the model. It was concluded that the paradigm change encompassed new tools and methods that could deal with decentralized decision-making, planning and self-organisation. The large amount of new technologies in the energy production chain requires a shift from a top-down to a more bottom-up approach. 12 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  16. Agent-based modeling and network dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Namatame, Akira

    2016-01-01

    The book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The book begins with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling’s segregation model and Axelrod’s spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The book also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. The book reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the gi...

  17. Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

    2016-12-01

    Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations.

  18. Multi-scale modelling and simulation in systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dada, Joseph O; Mendes, Pedro

    2011-02-01

    The aim of systems biology is to describe and understand biology at a global scale where biological functions are recognised as a result of complex mechanisms that happen at several scales, from the molecular to the ecosystem. Modelling and simulation are computational tools that are invaluable for description, prediction and understanding these mechanisms in a quantitative and integrative way. Therefore the study of biological functions is greatly aided by multi-scale methods that enable the coupling and simulation of models spanning several spatial and temporal scales. Various methods have been developed for solving multi-scale problems in many scientific disciplines, and are applicable to continuum based modelling techniques, in which the relationship between system properties is expressed with continuous mathematical equations or discrete modelling techniques that are based on individual units to model the heterogeneous microscopic elements such as individuals or cells. In this review, we survey these multi-scale methods and explore their application in systems biology.

  19. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Mark D.; Ghayoomie, S. Vahid; Larson, Stephen D.; Gerkin, Richard C.

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models. PMID:27635225

  20. Agent based computational model of trust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Gorobets (Alexander); B. Nooteboom (Bart)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractThis paper employs the methodology of Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) to investigate under what conditions trust can be viable in markets. The emergence and breakdown of trust is modeled in a context of multiple buyers and suppliers. Agents adapt their trust in a partner, the w

  1. Towards Modelling and Simulation of Crowded Environments in Cell Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittig, Arne T.; Jeschke, Matthias; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M.

    2010-09-01

    In modelling and simulation of cell biological processes, spatial homogeneity in the distribution of components is a common but not always valid assumption. Spatial simulation methods differ in computational effort and accuracy, and usually rely on tool-specific input formats for model specification. A clear separation between modelling and simulation allows a declarative model specification thereby facilitating reuse of models and exploiting different simulators. We outline a modelling formalism covering both stochastic spatial simulation at the population level and simulation of individual entities moving in continuous space as well as the combination thereof. A multi-level spatial simulator is presented that combines populations of small particles simulated according to the Next Subvolume Method with individually represented large particles following Brownian motion. This approach entails several challenges that need to be overcome, but nicely balances between calculation effort and required levels of detail.

  2. Agent based simulations in disease modeling Comment on "Towards a unified approach in the modeling of fibrosis: A review with research perspectives" by Martine Ben Amar and Carlo Bianca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappalardo, Francesco; Pennisi, Marzio

    2016-07-01

    Fibrosis represents a process where an excessive tissue formation in an organ follows the failure of a physiological reparative or reactive process. Mathematical and computational techniques may be used to improve the understanding of the mechanisms that lead to the disease and to test potential new treatments that may directly or indirectly have positive effects against fibrosis [1]. In this scenario, Ben Amar and Bianca [2] give us a broad picture of the existing mathematical and computational tools that have been used to model fibrotic processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels. Among such techniques, agent based models (ABM) can give a valuable contribution in the understanding and better management of fibrotic diseases.

  3. Empirically Based, Agent-based models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elinor Ostrom

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing drive to combine agent-based models with empirical methods. An overview is provided of the various empirical methods that are used for different kinds of questions. Four categories of empirical approaches are identified in which agent-based models have been empirically tested: case studies, stylized facts, role-playing games, and laboratory experiments. We discuss how these different types of empirical studies can be combined. The various ways empirical techniques are used illustrate the main challenges of contemporary social sciences: (1 how to develop models that are generalizable and still applicable in specific cases, and (2 how to scale up the processes of interactions of a few agents to interactions among many agents.

  4. Proceedings 3rd NASA/IEEE Workshop on Formal Approaches to Agent-Based Systems (FAABS-III)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinchey, Michael (Editor); Rash, James (Editor); Truszkowski, Walt (Editor); Rouff, Christopher (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    These preceedings contain 18 papers and 4 poster presentation, covering topics such as: multi-agent systems, agent-based control, formalism, norms, as well as physical and biological models of agent-based systems. Some applications presented in the proceedings include systems analysis, software engineering, computer networks and robot control.

  5. An Agent Based Model for Social Class Emergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Rodriguez Segura, Daniel; Lin, Fei; Mazilu, Irina

    We present an open system agent-based model to analyze the effects of education and the society-specific wealth transactions on the emergence of social classes. Building on previous studies, we use realistic functions to model how years of education affect the income level. Numerical simulations show that the fraction of an individual's total transactions that is invested rather than consumed can cause wealth gaps between different income brackets in the long run. In an attempt to incorporate the network effects, we also explore how the probability of interactions among agents depending on the spread of their income brackets affects wealth distribution.

  6. SPY AGENT BASED SECURE DATA AGGREGATION IN WSN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Lathies Bhasker

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor network consist lot of sensor devices which are activated by using the battery power. These sensor devices are mostly used in hostile environment, military applications etc. So in this type of environment it is highly difficult to collect and transmit the data to the Sink without any data lost. In this paper we proposed SPY Agent based secure data aggregation scheme. Here one SPY Agent moves around the network and monitors the aggregator nodes i.e, the Cluster Heads for secure data collection. In the Simulation section we have analyzed our proposed architecture for both proactive and reactive protocols.

  7. An Agent-based Model of a Capitalist Economy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Li-jun; CHENG Dai-zhan

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the stabilizing role of taxation in an agent based model of a capitalist economy. The model may be considered as a control system with taxation as the control. But it differs from conventional model of control systems. It has some significant characters of complex systems.The system is described and studied by combining the mathematical formulas with computer simulations.Several related concepts as "output" and "control" etc. are reconsidered from new view-points. Via this problem we explore some phenomenon in controlled complex systems.

  8. Many-body methods in agent-based epidemic models

    CERN Document Server

    Nakamura, Gilberto M

    2016-01-01

    The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) agent-based model is usually employed in the investigation of epidemics. The model describes a Markov process for a single communicable disease among susceptible (S) and infected (I) agents. However, the disease spreading forecasting is often restricted to numerical simulations, while analytic formulations lack both general results and perturbative approaches since they are subjected to asymmetric time generators. Here, we discuss perturbation theory, approximations and application of many-body techniques in epidemic models in the framework for squared norm of probability vector $|P(t)| ^2$, in which asymmetric time generators are replaced by their symmetric counterparts.

  9. Agent-based computational economics using NetLogo

    CERN Document Server

    Damaceanu, Romulus-Catalin

    2013-01-01

    Agent-based Computational Economics using NetLogo explores how researchers can create, use and implement multi-agent computational models in Economics by using NetLogo software platform. Problems of economic science can be solved using multi-agent modelling (MAM). This technique uses a computer model to simulate the actions and interactions of autonomous entities in a network, in order to analyze the effects on the entire economic system. MAM combines elements of game theory, complex systems, emergence and evolutionary programming. The Monte Carlo method is also used in this e-book to introduc

  10. An Agent-Based Modeling for Pandemic Influenza in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Khalil, Khaled M.; Abdel-Aziz, M.; Nazmy, Taymour T.; Salem, Abdel-Badeeh M.

    2010-01-01

    Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The proposed multi-agent model is based on the modeling of individuals' interactions in a space time context. The proposed model involves different types of parameters such as: social agent attributes, distribution of Egypt population, and patterns of agents' i...

  11. A Calculus for Modelling, Simulating and Analysing Compartmentalized Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mardare, Radu Iulian; Ihekwaba, Adoha

    2007-01-01

    A. Ihekwaba, R. Mardare. A Calculus for Modelling, Simulating and Analysing Compartmentalized Biological Systems. Case study: NFkB system. In Proc. of International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering (ICCMSE), American Institute of Physics, AIP Proceedings, N 2...

  12. Biology Students Building Computer Simulations Using StarLogo TNG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, V. Anne; Duncan, Ishbel

    2011-01-01

    Confidence is an important issue for biology students in handling computational concepts. This paper describes a practical in which honours-level bioscience students simulate complex animal behaviour using StarLogo TNG, a freely-available graphical programming environment. The practical consists of two sessions, the first of which guides students…

  13. GPU-powered Simulation Methodologies for Biological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pescini

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of biological systems witnessed a pervasive cross-fertilization between experimental investigation and computational methods. This gave rise to the development of new methodologies, able to tackle the complexity of biological systems in a quantitative manner. Computer algorithms allow to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the corresponding biological system, and, at the price of a large number of simulations, it is possible to extensively investigate the system functioning across a wide spectrum of natural conditions. To enable multiple analysis in parallel, using cheap, diffused and highly efficient multi-core devices we developed GPU-powered simulation algorithms for stochastic, deterministic and hybrid modeling approaches, so that also users with no knowledge of GPUs hardware and programming can easily access the computing power of graphics engines.

  14. Developing a multiscale, multi-resolution agent-based brain tumor model by graphics processing units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Le

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Multiscale agent-based modeling (MABM has been widely used to simulate Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM and its progression. At the intracellular level, the MABM approach employs a system of ordinary differential equations to describe quantitatively specific intracellular molecular pathways that determine phenotypic switches among cells (e.g. from migration to proliferation and vice versa. At the intercellular level, MABM describes cell-cell interactions by a discrete module. At the tissue level, partial differential equations are employed to model the diffusion of chemoattractants, which are the input factors of the intracellular molecular pathway. Moreover, multiscale analysis makes it possible to explore the molecules that play important roles in determining the cellular phenotypic switches that in turn drive the whole GBM expansion. However, owing to limited computational resources, MABM is currently a theoretical biological model that uses relatively coarse grids to simulate a few cancer cells in a small slice of brain cancer tissue. In order to improve this theoretical model to simulate and predict actual GBM cancer progression in real time, a graphics processing unit (GPU-based parallel computing algorithm was developed and combined with the multi-resolution design to speed up the MABM. The simulated results demonstrated that the GPU-based, multi-resolution and multiscale approach can accelerate the previous MABM around 30-fold with relatively fine grids in a large extracellular matrix. Therefore, the new model has great potential for simulating and predicting real-time GBM progression, if real experimental data are incorporated.

  15. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G. [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: peter.dehaan@env.ethz.ch

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.

  16. Agent-based Cloud service composition

    OpenAIRE

    Sim, Kwang Mong; Gutierrez-Garcia, J. Octavio

    2013-01-01

    Service composition in multi-Cloud environments\\ud must coordinate self-interested participants, automate\\ud service selection, (re)configure distributed services, and deal\\ud with incomplete information about Cloud providers and\\ud their services. This work proposes an agent-based approach\\ud to compose services in multi-Cloud environments for different\\ud types of Cloud services: one-time virtualized services,\\ud e.g., processing a rendering job, persistent virtualized services,\\ud e.g., in...

  17. An Agent-Based Distributed Manufacturing System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J.Li; J.Y.H.Fuh; Y.F.Zhang; A.Y.C.Nee

    2006-01-01

    Agent theories have shown their promising capability in solving distributed complex system ever since its development. In this paper, one multi-agent based distributed product design and manufacturing planning system is presented. The objective of the research is to develop a distributed collaborative design environment for supporting cooperation among the existing engineering functions. In the system, the functional agents for design, manufacturability evaluation,process planning and scheduling are efficiently integrated with a facilitator agent. This paper firstly gives an introduction to the system structure, and the definitions for each executive agent are then described and a prototype of the proposed is also included at the end part.

  18. A Multi Agent Based Model for Airport Service Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.H. Ip

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Aviation industry is highly dynamic and demanding in nature that time and safety are the two most important factors while one of the major sources of delay is aircraft on ground because of it complexity, a lot of machinery like vehicles are involved and lots of communication are involved. As one of the aircraft ground services providers in Hong Kong International Airport, China Aircraft Services Limited (CASL aims to increase competitiveness by better its service provided while minimizing cost is also needed. One of the ways is to optimize the number of maintenance vehicles allocated in order to minimize chance of delay and also operating costs. In the paper, an agent-based model is proposed for support decision making in vehicle allocation. The overview of the aircrafts ground services procedures is firstly mentioned with different optimization methods suggested by researchers. Then, the agent-based approach is introduced and in the latter part of report and a multi-agent system is built and proposed which is decision supportive for CASL in optimizing the maintenance vehicles' allocation. The application provides flexibility for inputting number of different kinds of vehicles, simulation duration and aircraft arrival rate in order to simulation different scenarios which occurs in HKIA.

  19. An agent-based microsimulation of critical infrastructure systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BARTON,DIANNE C.; STAMBER,KEVIN L.

    2000-03-29

    US infrastructures provide essential services that support the economic prosperity and quality of life. Today, the latest threat to these infrastructures is the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of the system. On balance, added connectivity will improve economic efficiency; however, increased coupling could also result in situations where a disturbance in an isolated infrastructure unexpectedly cascades across diverse infrastructures. An understanding of the behavior of complex systems can be critical to understanding and predicting infrastructure responses to unexpected perturbation. Sandia National Laboratories has developed an agent-based model of critical US infrastructures using time-dependent Monte Carlo methods and a genetic algorithm learning classifier system to control decision making. The model is currently under development and contains agents that represent the several areas within the interconnected infrastructures, including electric power and fuel supply. Previous work shows that agent-based simulations models have the potential to improve the accuracy of complex system forecasting and to provide new insights into the factors that are the primary drivers of emergent behaviors in interdependent systems. Simulation results can be examined both computationally and analytically, offering new ways of theorizing about the impact of perturbations to an infrastructure network.

  20. Simulation of Interval Censored Data in Medical and Biological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiani, Kaveh; Arasan, Jayanthi

    This research looks at the simulation of interval censored data when the survivor function of the survival time is known and attendance probability of the subjects for follow-ups can take any number between 0 to 1. Interval censored data often arise in the medical and biological follow-up studies where the event of interest occurs somewhere between two known times. Regardless of the methods used to analyze these types of data, simulation of interval censored data is an important and challenging step toward model building and prediction of survival time. The simulation itself is rather tedious and very computer intensive due to the interval monitoring of subjects at prescheduled times and subject's incomplete attendance to follow-ups. In this paper the simulated data by the proposed method were assessed using the bias, standard error and root mean square error (RMSE) of the parameter estimates where the survival time T is assumed to follow the Gompertz distribution function.

  1. On Designing Multicore-aware Simulators for Biological Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Aldinucci, Marco; Damiani, Ferruccio; Drocco, Maurizio; Torquati, Massimo; Troina, Angelo

    2010-01-01

    The stochastic simulation of biological systems is an increasingly popular technique in bioinformatics. It often is an enlightening technique, which may however result in being computational expensive. We discuss the main opportunities to speed it up on multi-core platforms, which pose new challenges for parallelisation techniques. These opportunities are developed in two general families of solutions involving both the single simulation and a bulk of independent simulations (either replicas of derived from parameter sweep). Proposed solutions are tested on the parallelisation of the CWC simulator (Calculus of Wrapped Compartments) that is carried out according to proposed solutions by way of the FastFlow programming framework making possible fast development and efficient execution on multi-cores.

  2. Simulations of (an)isotropic diffusion on curved biological surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbalzarini, Ivo F; Hayer, Arnold; Helenius, Ari; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2006-02-01

    We present a computational particle method for the simulation of isotropic and anisotropic diffusion on curved biological surfaces that have been reconstructed from image data. The method is capable of handling surfaces of high curvature and complex shape, which are often encountered in biology. The method is validated on simple benchmark problems and is shown to be second-order accurate in space and time and of high parallel efficiency. It is applied to simulations of diffusion on the membrane of endoplasmic reticula (ER) in live cells. Diffusion simulations are conducted on geometries reconstructed from real ER samples and are compared to fluorescence recovery after photobleaching experiments in the same ER samples using the transmembrane protein tsO45-VSV-G, C-terminally tagged with green fluorescent protein. Such comparisons allow derivation of geometry-corrected molecular diffusion constants for membrane components from fluorescence recovery after photobleaching data. The results of the simulations indicate that the diffusion behavior of molecules in the ER membrane differs significantly from the volumetric diffusion of soluble molecules in the lumen of the same ER. The apparent speed of recovery differs by a factor of approximately 4, even when the molecular diffusion constants of the two molecules are identical. In addition, the specific shape of the membrane affects the recovery half-time, which is found to vary by a factor of approximately 2 in different ER samples.

  3. An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Suzuki, Kyoko; Misawa, Tadanobu

    2007-06-01

    An important challenge of the financial theory in recent years is to construct more sophisticated models which have consistencies with as many financial stylized facts that cannot be explained by traditional models. Recently, psychological studies on decision making under uncertainty which originate in Kahneman and Tversky's research attract a lot of interest as key factors which figure out the financial stylized facts. These psychological results have been applied to the theory of investor's decision making and financial equilibrium modeling. This paper, following these behavioral financial studies, would like to propose an agent-based equilibrium model with prospect theoretical features of investors. Our goal is to point out a possibility that loss-averse feature of investors explains vast number of financial stylized facts and plays a crucial role in price formations of financial markets. Price process which is endogenously generated through our model has consistencies with, not only the equity premium puzzle and the volatility puzzle, but great kurtosis, asymmetry of return distribution, auto-correlation of return volatility, cross-correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Moreover, by using agent-based simulations, the paper also provides a rigorous explanation from the viewpoint of a lack of market liquidity to the size effect, which means that small-sized stocks enjoy excess returns compared to large-sized stocks.

  4. INSPECTING COMPLIANCE TO MANY RULES: AN AGENT-BASED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slaven Smojver

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ever increasing scope and complexity of regulations and other rules that govern human society emphasise importance of the inspection of compliance to those rules. Often-used approaches to the inspection of compliance suffer from drawbacks such as overly idealistic assumptions and narrowness of application. Specifically, inspection models are frequently limited to situations where inspected entity has to comply with only one rule. Furthermore, inspection strategies regularly overlook some useful and available information such as varying costs of compliance to different rules. This article presents an agent-based model for inspection of compliance to many rules, which addresses abovementioned drawbacks. In the article, crime economic, game-theoretic and agent-based modelling approaches to inspection are briefly described, as well as their impact on the model. The model is described and simulation of a simplified version of the model is presented. The obtained results demonstrate that inspection strategies which take into account rules’ compliance costs perform significantly better than random strategies and better than cycle-based strategies. Additionally, the results encourage further, wider testing and validation of the model.

  5. Empirical agent-based modelling challenges and solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Barreteau, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This instructional book showcases techniques to parameterise human agents in empirical agent-based models (ABM). In doing so, it provides a timely overview of key ABM methodologies and the most innovative approaches through a variety of empirical applications.  It features cutting-edge research from leading academics and practitioners, and will provide a guide for characterising and parameterising human agents in empirical ABM.  In order to facilitate learning, this text shares the valuable experiences of other modellers in particular modelling situations. Very little has been published in the area of empirical ABM, and this contributed volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying simulation modeling in economics, sociology, ecology, and trans-disciplinary studies, such as topics related to sustainability. In a similar vein to the instruction found in a cookbook, this text provides the empirical modeller with a set of 'recipes'  ready to be implemented. Agent-based modeling (AB...

  6. Econophysics of agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim

    2014-01-01

    The primary goal of this book is to present the research findings and conclusions of physicists, economists, mathematicians and financial engineers working in the field of "Econophysics" who have undertaken agent-based modelling, comparison with empirical studies and related investigations. Most standard economic models assume the existence of the representative agent, who is “perfectly rational” and applies the utility maximization principle when taking action. One reason for this is the desire to keep models mathematically tractable: no tools are available to economists for solving non-linear models of heterogeneous adaptive agents without explicit optimization. In contrast, multi-agent models, which originated from statistical physics considerations, allow us to go beyond the prototype theories of traditional economics involving the representative agent. This book is based on the Econophys-Kolkata VII Workshop, at which many such modelling efforts were presented. In the book, leading researchers in the...

  7. Agent based modeling in tactical wargaming

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Alex; Hanratty, Timothy P.; Tuttle, Daniel C.; Coles, John B.

    2016-05-01

    Army staffs at division, brigade, and battalion levels often plan for contingency operations. As such, analysts consider the impact and potential consequences of actions taken. The Army Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) dictates identification and evaluation of possible enemy courses of action; however, non-state actors often do not exhibit the same level and consistency of planned actions that the MDMP was originally designed to anticipate. The fourth MDMP step is a particular challenge, wargaming courses of action within the context of complex social-cultural behaviors. Agent-based Modeling (ABM) and its resulting emergent behavior is a potential solution to model terrain in terms of the human domain and improve the results and rigor of the traditional wargaming process.

  8. An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

    This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

  9. Evanescent planar waveguide detection of biological warfare simulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipe, David M.; Schoonmaker, Kenneth P.; Herron, James N.; Mostert, Michael J.

    2000-04-01

    An evanescent planar waveguide Mark 1.5 instrument was used to detect simulants of biological warfare agents; ovalbumin (OV), MS2 bacteriophage, BG, and Erwinia herbicola (EH). Polyclonal tracer antibodies were labeled with the fluorescent dye, Cy5. Discrete bands of polyclonal capture antibodies were immobilized to a polystyrene planar waveguide with molded integral lenses. An ST-6 CCD camera was used for detection. OV. MS2 and BG were detected in a simultaneous 3 by 3 array; with a total of nine measurements within 6 minutes. EH was analyzed in a separate array. Results were evaluate dat the US Army Joint Field Trials V, at the Dugway Proving Grounds. Over a 10 day period, 32 unknown samples were analyzed daily for each simulant. Detection limits: OV 10 ng/ml, MS2 107 pfu/ml, BG 105 cfu/ml. EH was detectable at 5 X 105 cfu/ml. Overall false positives were 3.0 percent. Therefore, the Mark 1.5 instrument, with a parallel array of detectors, evanescent flourescent excitation, and CCD imaging provides for rapid, sensitive, and specific detection of biological warfare agent simulants.

  10. CHARMM-GUI Membrane Builder toward realistic biological membrane simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Emilia L; Cheng, Xi; Jo, Sunhwan; Rui, Huan; Song, Kevin C; Dávila-Contreras, Eder M; Qi, Yifei; Lee, Jumin; Monje-Galvan, Viviana; Venable, Richard M; Klauda, Jeffery B; Im, Wonpil

    2014-10-15

    CHARMM-GUI Membrane Builder, http://www.charmm-gui.org/input/membrane, is a web-based user interface designed to interactively build all-atom protein/membrane or membrane-only systems for molecular dynamics simulations through an automated optimized process. In this work, we describe the new features and major improvements in Membrane Builder that allow users to robustly build realistic biological membrane systems, including (1) addition of new lipid types, such as phosphoinositides, cardiolipin (CL), sphingolipids, bacterial lipids, and ergosterol, yielding more than 180 lipid types, (2) enhanced building procedure for lipid packing around protein, (3) reliable algorithm to detect lipid tail penetration to ring structures and protein surface, (4) distance-based algorithm for faster initial ion displacement, (5) CHARMM inputs for P21 image transformation, and (6) NAMD equilibration and production inputs. The robustness of these new features is illustrated by building and simulating a membrane model of the polar and septal regions of E. coli membrane, which contains five lipid types: CL lipids with two types of acyl chains and phosphatidylethanolamine lipids with three types of acyl chains. It is our hope that CHARMM-GUI Membrane Builder becomes a useful tool for simulation studies to better understand the structure and dynamics of proteins and lipids in realistic biological membrane environments.

  11. A methodology for simulating biological systems using Microsoft Excel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A M

    1999-02-01

    The objective of this present study was to develop a simple, easily understood methodology for solving biologically based models using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The method involves the use of in-cell formulas in which Rows and Columns of new data are generated from data typed into the spreadsheet, but does not require any programming skills or use of the macro language. The approach involves entering the key parameter values into the spreadsheet and conducting the simulation by solving a set of equations based on these parameter values. The examples used in this paper are firstly, a simple voltage clamp simulation in which initial parameter values are used to calculate a system in steady state. The second example is a current clamp simulation where steady state is not reached and the solution of the equations for each time increment is used as the input for the next time increment in the simulation. The calculations are based on the Hodgkin Huxley mathematical equations that describe the voltage dependence of ion channel behavior. The problems and flexibility of the method are briefly discussed. The methodology developed in this present study should help novice modelers to create simple simulations without the need to learn a programming language or purchase expensive software.

  12. High performance computing for three-dimensional agent-based molecular models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, G; Pérez-Pérez, M; Fdez-Riverola, F; Lourenço, A

    2016-07-01

    Agent-based simulations are increasingly popular in exploring and understanding cellular systems, but the natural complexity of these systems and the desire to grasp different modelling levels demand cost-effective simulation strategies and tools. In this context, the present paper introduces novel sequential and distributed approaches for the three-dimensional agent-based simulation of individual molecules in cellular events. These approaches are able to describe the dimensions and position of the molecules with high accuracy and thus, study the critical effect of spatial distribution on cellular events. Moreover, two of the approaches allow multi-thread high performance simulations, distributing the three-dimensional model in a platform independent and computationally efficient way. Evaluation addressed the reproduction of molecular scenarios and different scalability aspects of agent creation and agent interaction. The three approaches simulate common biophysical and biochemical laws faithfully. The distributed approaches show improved performance when dealing with large agent populations while the sequential approach is better suited for small to medium size agent populations. Overall, the main new contribution of the approaches is the ability to simulate three-dimensional agent-based models at the molecular level with reduced implementation effort and moderate-level computational capacity. Since these approaches have a generic design, they have the major potential of being used in any event-driven agent-based tool.

  13. Agent-based distributed hierarchical control of dc microgrid systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Lexuan; Vasquez, Juan Carlos; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    In order to enable distributed control and management for microgrids, this paper explores the application of information consensus and local decisionmaking methods formulating an agent based distributed hierarchical control system. A droop controlled paralleled DC/DC converter system is taken...... as a case study. The objective is to enhance the system efficiency by finding the optimal sharing ratio of load current. Virtual resistances in local control systems are taken as decision variables. Consensus algorithms are applied for global information discovery and local control systems coordination....... Standard genetic algorithm is applied in each local control system in order to search for a global optimum. Hardware-in-Loop simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method....

  14. Agent-based multi-optional model of innovations diffusion

    CERN Document Server

    Laciana, Carlos E

    2013-01-01

    We propose a formalism that allows the study of the process of diffusion of several products competing in a common market. It is based on the generalization of the statistics Ising model (Potts model). For the implementation, agent based modeling is used, applied to a problem of three options; to adopt a product A, a product B, or non-adoption. A launching strategy is analyzed for one of the two products, which delays its launching with the objective of competing with improvements. The proportion reached by one and another product is calculated at market saturation. The simulations are produced varying the social network topology, the uncertainty in the decision, and the population's homogeneity.

  15. Agent Based Modeling on Organizational Dynamics of Terrorist Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model are developed for modeling the hybrid relational structure and complex operational processes, respectively. To intuitively elucidate this method, the agent based modeling is used to simulate the terrorist network and test the performance in diverse scenarios. Based on the experimental results, we show how the changes of operational environments affect the development of terrorist organization in terms of its recovery and capacity to perform future tasks. The potential strategies are also discussed, which can be used to restrain the activities of terrorists.

  16. An Agent Based approach to design Serious Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Gentile

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Serious games are designed to train and educate learners, opening up new learning approaches like exploratory learning and situated cognition.  Despite growing interest in these games, their design is still an artisan process.On the basis of experiences in designing computer simulation, this paper proposes an agent-based approach to guide the design process of a serious game. The proposed methodology allows the designer to strike the right equilibrium between educational effectiveness and entertainment, realism and complexity.The design of the PNPVillage game is used as a case study. The PNPVillage game aims to introduce and foster an entrepreneurial mindset among young students. It was implemented within the framework of the European project “I  can… I cannot… I go!” Rev.2

  17. An Agent-Based Modeling for Pandemic Influenza in Egypt

    CERN Document Server

    Khalil, Khaled M; Nazmy, Taymour T; Salem, Abdel-Badeeh M

    2010-01-01

    Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The proposed multi-agent model is based on the modeling of individuals' interactions in a space time context. The proposed model involves different types of parameters such as: social agent attributes, distribution of Egypt population, and patterns of agents' interactions. Analysis of modeling results leads to understanding the characteristics of the modeled pandemic, transmission patterns, and the conditions under which an outbreak might occur. In addition, the proposed model is used to measure the effectiveness of different control strategies to intervene the pandemic spread.

  18. Complexity and agent-based modelling in urban research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    Urbanisation processes are results of a broad variety of actors or actor groups and their behaviour and decisions based on different experiences, knowledge, resources, values etc. The decisions done are often on a micro/individual level but resulting in macro/collective behaviour. In urban research...... influence on the bigger system. Traditional scientific methods or theories often tried to simplify, not accounting complex relations of actors and decision-making. The introduction of computers in simulation made new approaches in modelling, as for example agent-based modelling (ABM), possible, dealing...... of complexity for a majority of science, there exists a huge number of scientific articles, books, tutorials etc. to these topics which doesn’t make it easy for a novice in the field to find the right literature. The literature used gives an optimistic outlook for the future of this methodology, although ABM...

  19. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  20. Computer simulations for biological aging and sexual reproduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STAUFFER DIETRICH

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The sexual version of the Penna model of biological aging, simulated since 1996, is compared here with alternative forms of reproduction as well as with models not involving aging. In particular we want to check how sexual forms of life could have evolved and won over earlier asexual forms hundreds of million years ago. This computer model is based on the mutation-accumulation theory of aging, using bits-strings to represent the genome. Its population dynamics is studied by Monte Carlo methods.

  1. Simulation of the radiation effects on biological objects; Simulation der Strahlenwirkung auf biologische Objekte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bug, Marion; Nettelbeck, Heidi [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Braunschweig (Germany). Arbeitsgruppe ' Biologische Wirksamkeit Ionisierender Strahlung'

    2013-06-15

    The simulation of biological radiation effects by means of the electron transport in water and DNA and the cross sections for elastic scattering, electronic excitation, and ionization in electron collisions with tetrahydrofuran molecules is described, whereby the strand-breaking probabilities are determined. (HSI)

  2. Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

    The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

  3. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  4. Modeling and Simulation Tools: From Systems Biology to Systems Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivier, Brett G; Swat, Maciej J; Moné, Martijn J

    2016-01-01

    Modeling is an integral component of modern biology. In this chapter we look into the role of the model, as it pertains to Systems Medicine, and the software that is required to instantiate and run it. We do this by comparing the development, implementation, and characteristics of tools that have been developed to work with two divergent methodologies: Systems Biology and Pharmacometrics. From the Systems Biology perspective we consider the concept of "Software as a Medical Device" and what this may imply for the migration of research-oriented, simulation software into the domain of human health.In our second perspective, we see how in practice hundreds of computational tools already accompany drug discovery and development at every stage of the process. Standardized exchange formats are required to streamline the model exchange between tools, which would minimize translation errors and reduce the required time. With the emergence, almost 15 years ago, of the SBML standard, a large part of the domain of interest is already covered and models can be shared and passed from software to software without recoding them. Until recently the last stage of the process, the pharmacometric analysis used in clinical studies carried out on subject populations, lacked such an exchange medium. We describe a new emerging exchange format in Pharmacometrics which covers the non-linear mixed effects models, the standard statistical model type used in this area. By interfacing these two formats the entire domain can be covered by complementary standards and subsequently the according tools.

  5. STSE: Spatio-Temporal Simulation Environment Dedicated to Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerber Susanne

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the availability of high-resolution microscopy together with the advancements in the development of biomarkers as reporters of biomolecular interactions increased the importance of imaging methods in molecular cell biology. These techniques enable the investigation of cellular characteristics like volume, size and geometry as well as volume and geometry of intracellular compartments, and the amount of existing proteins in a spatially resolved manner. Such detailed investigations opened up many new areas of research in the study of spatial, complex and dynamic cellular systems. One of the crucial challenges for the study of such systems is the design of a well stuctured and optimized workflow to provide a systematic and efficient hypothesis verification. Computer Science can efficiently address this task by providing software that facilitates handling, analysis, and evaluation of biological data to the benefit of experimenters and modelers. Results The Spatio-Temporal Simulation Environment (STSE is a set of open-source tools provided to conduct spatio-temporal simulations in discrete structures based on microscopy images. The framework contains modules to digitize, represent, analyze, and mathematically model spatial distributions of biochemical species. Graphical user interface (GUI tools provided with the software enable meshing of the simulation space based on the Voronoi concept. In addition, it supports to automatically acquire spatial information to the mesh from the images based on pixel luminosity (e.g. corresponding to molecular levels from microscopy images. STSE is freely available either as a stand-alone version or included in the linux live distribution Systems Biology Operational Software (SB.OS and can be downloaded from http://www.stse-software.org/. The Python source code as well as a comprehensive user manual and video tutorials are also offered to the research community. We discuss main concepts

  6. Multi-agent Based Simulation on Residential Location Selection Based on Labor Market%基于就业市场的劳动人口区位选择行为的多智能体模拟

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李少英; 黎夏; 刘小平; 劳春华

    2013-01-01

    基于空间经济学视角,提出了基于就业市场的劳动人口区位选择模型(Labor Market Based Model of Residential Location—LMBMRL),利用多智能体对劳动人口居住区位选择行为进行模拟研究.利用GIS方法提取经济产业空间信息,并将经济主体的空间异质性引入人口区位选择模型中.充分考虑就业市场、居住成本与通勤成本对个体区位经济效用的影响,设计基于收入和支出的个体决策规则,并利用多智能体方法对劳动人口居住区位选择行为进行模拟.模拟结果揭示了在特定经济产业空间结构下,不同人口群体区位选择形成的人口空间结构及其机理.通过成本系数差异分析,反映了居住成本和通勤成本对人口空间结构的影响.分析结果表明,当居住成本较低时,人口空间结构较为集中,而当房价上涨或居住成本较大时,劳动人口形成较为分散的空间格局;若城市交通便捷度提高,则人口的空间集聚度降低.%Residential location selection is becoming a hot topic in the urban management field. There are two main research approaches including conventional regional approach and multi-agent modeling approach. The regional approaches mainly focus on statistic data involving social and economic indicators, as well as spatial data. However, the traditional "top-down" approaches are difficult in explaining the complexity of urban phenomena resulting from the decisions and behaviors of population. In contrast, the multi-agent modeling approach can simulate urban system and model the complexity of macro-processes resulting from individual behaviors at the micro-level. A variety ofmulti-agent models have been developed to simulate residential dynamics. However, these models are mainly based on the assumption of homogeneous space and do not consider the influences of spatial differentiation on economy. In fact the economic spatial configuration is the important factor that influences

  7. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  8. PARKAGENT: An agent-based model of parking in the city

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benenson, I.; Martens, C.J.C.M.; Birfir, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present PARKAGENT, an agent-based, spatially explicit model for parking in the city. Unlike traditional parking models, PARKAGENT simulates the behavior of each driver in a spatially explicit environment and is able to capture the complex self-organizing dynamics of a large collect

  9. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grimm, V.; Revilla, E.; Berger, U.; Jeltsch, F.; Mooij, W.M.; Railsback, S.F.; Thulke, H-H.; Weiner, J.; Wiegand, T.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-b

  10. Exploring the Structure and Task Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations Using Agent Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release...Terrorist Networks, Agent Based Modeling, 2004 Madrid Attacks, Backcasting , Computational Organization Simulation 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY...be understood in order to apply effective policies and practices to safeguard citizens, assets, and interests. For decades, terrorist cells have

  11. An agent-based information management model of the Chinese pig sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, S.A.; Kramer, M.R.; Hofstede, G.J.; Roozmand, O.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of a selected top-down measure (what-if scenario) on actual agent behaviour and total system behaviour by means of an agent-based simulation model, when agents’ behaviour cannot fully be managed because the agents are autonomous. The Chinese pork sector serves as c

  12. Agent Based Evolutionary Simulation Analysis with the Structure of Scientific Research in Universities%高校科研组织的智能体演化仿真分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕蔚; 朱东华; 潘常春; 杨根科

    2011-01-01

    Scientific and research group construction is one of the key problems in the organizational problems in universities. Which types of team mode can improve the research and scientific competitiveness is of strategic importance. It is extremely difficult to model the whole scientific and research system in accurate manner, therefore, current research is mainly focused on the qualitative statement from the policy view of point. To ensure the validation of the research, the paper, based on reliable historical data, presented the method of transient factors between two teammodes, and then established a simplified dynamics based on 4 elementary team modes. The whole system was modeled as an agent system and simulations were done under three circumstances of allocating limited school-running resources. The simulation demonstrates that the structure of scientific and research system is strongly dependent on the way in which the available school-running resources are allocated. Only diversification of teams can improve the overall competitiveness power of scientific research both in academic and practical aspect. Finally, the real data coming from some uncertain university validate our research.%研究对高校科学优化管理,创建一流大学,科研团队建设是高校科研组织管理中的关键问题之一,研究何种团队结构下能够提升高校科研竞争力是一个复杂管理模型.目前的研究主要是基于政策层面的定性论述.为了提升研究的有效性,根据可靠的历史数据,提出了团队模式的转移影响矩阵法,建立了基于4种团队模式的简化动力学模型.采用多智能体演化仿真方法,对3种资源配置下高校科研组织结构演化及其综合竞争力演化进行仿真.结果表明,资源的配置规则将影响高校科研团队的组织模式,只有团队多样化能使得科研体系在学术和研发两方面的综合竞争力提升.最后通过某大学的实际发展指标验证了研究的有效性.

  13. Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed; Bowling, Shannon R.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

  14. A comparison of Nash equilibria analysis and agent-based modelling for power markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krause, T.; Andersson, G. [EEH Power Systems Laboratory, ETH Zuerich, (Switzerland); Beck, E.V.; Cherkaoui, R.; Germond, A. [LRE Laboratoire de Reseaux Electriques, EPFL-STI-LRE, Lausanne (Switzerland); Ernst, D. [Universitede Liege, Institut Montefiore Batiment B28, Liege (Belgium)

    2006-11-15

    In this paper we compare Nash equilibria analysis and agent-based modelling for assessing the market dynamics of network-constrained pool markets. Power suppliers submit their bids to the market place in order to maximize their payoffs, where we apply reinforcement learning as a behavioral agent model. The market clearing mechanism is based on the locational marginal pricing scheme. Simulations are carried out on a benchmark power system. We show how the evolution of the agent-based approach relates to the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium or multiple equilibria in the system. Additionally, the parameter sensitivity of the results is discussed. (author)

  15. Demeter, persephone, and the search for emergence in agent-based models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    North, M. J.; Howe, T. R.; Collier, N. T.; Vos, J. R.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago; PantaRei Corp.; Univ. of Illinois

    2006-01-01

    In Greek mythology, the earth goddess Demeter was unable to find her daughter Persephone after Persephone was abducted by Hades, the god of the underworld. Demeter is said to have embarked on a long and frustrating, but ultimately successful, search to find her daughter. Unfortunately, long and frustrating searches are not confined to Greek mythology. In modern times, agent-based modelers often face similar troubles when searching for agents that are to be to be connected to one another and when seeking appropriate target agents while defining agent behaviors. The result is a 'search for emergence' in that many emergent or potentially emergent behaviors in agent-based models of complex adaptive systems either implicitly or explicitly require search functions. This paper considers a new nested querying approach to simplifying such agent-based modeling and multi-agent simulation search problems.

  16. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  17. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M; Railsback, Steven F; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2005-11-11

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  18. Introduction to mathematical biology modeling, analysis, and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, Ching Shan

    2016-01-01

    This book is based on a one semester course that the authors have been teaching for several years, and includes two sets of case studies. The first includes chemostat models, predator-prey interaction, competition among species, the spread of infectious diseases, and oscillations arising from bifurcations. In developing these topics, readers will also be introduced to the basic theory of ordinary differential equations, and how to work with MATLAB without having any prior programming experience. The second set of case studies were adapted from recent and current research papers to the level of the students. Topics have been selected based on public health interest. This includes the risk of atherosclerosis associated with high cholesterol levels, cancer and immune interactions, cancer therapy, and tuberculosis. Readers will experience how mathematical models and their numerical simulations can provide explanations that guide biological and biomedical research. Considered to be the undergraduate companion to t...

  19. Monitoring Biological Modes in a Bioreactor Process by Computer Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samia Semcheddine

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the general framework of fermentation system modeling and monitoring, focusing on the fermentation of Escherichia coli. Our main objective is to develop an algorithm for the online detection of acetate production during the culture of recombinant proteins. The analysis the fermentation process shows that it behaves like a hybrid dynamic system with commutation (since it can be represented by 5 nonlinear models. We present a strategy of fault detection based on residual generation for detecting the different actual biological modes. The residual generation is based on nonlinear analytical redundancy relations. The simulation results show that the several modes that are occulted during the bacteria cultivation can be detected by residuals using a nonlinear dynamic model and a reduced instrumentation.

  20. Spectroscopic investigations of surface deposited biological warfare simulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrington, Stephen J.; Bird, Hilary; Hurst, Daniel; McIntosh, Alastair J. S.; Spencer, Phillippa; Pelfrey, Suzanne H.; Baker, Matthew J.

    2012-06-01

    This paper reports a proof-of-principle study aimed at discriminating biological warfare (BW) simulants from common environmental bacteria in order to differentiate pathogenic endospores in situ, to aid any required response for hazard management. We used FTIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate analysis; FTIR is a versatile technique for the non-destructive analysis of a range of materials. We also report an evaluation of multiple pre-processing techniques and subsequent differences in cross-validation accuracy of two pattern recognition models (Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Principal Component - Linear Discriminant Analysis (PC-LDA)) for two classifications: a two class classification (Gram + ve spores vs. Gram -ve vegetative cells) and a six class classification (bacterial classification). Six bacterial strains Bacillus atrophaeus, Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki, Bacillus thuringiensis, Escherichia coli, Pantaeoa agglomerans and Pseudomonas fluorescens were analysed.

  1. An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinder, Jonathan P.

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

  2. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zining Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

  3. Simulated microgravity affects some biological characteristics of Lactobacillus acidophilus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Dongyan; Yao, Linbo; Riaz, Muhammad Shahid; Zhu, Jing; Shi, Junling; Jin, Mingliang; Huang, Qingsheng; Yang, Hui

    2017-04-01

    The effects of weightlessness on enteric microorganisms have been extensively studied, but have mainly been focused on pathogens. As a major component of the microbiome of the human intestinal tract, probiotics are important to keep the host healthy. Accordingly, understanding their changes under weightlessness conditions has substantial value. This study was carried out to investigate the characteristics of Lactobacillus acidophilus, a typical probiotic for humans, under simulated microgravity (SMG) conditions. The results revealed that SMG had no significant impact on the morphology of L. acidophilus, but markedly shortened its lag phase, enhanced its growth rate, acid tolerance ability up to pH acidophilus to cefalexin, sulfur gentamicin, and sodium penicillin. No obvious effect of SMG was observed on the adhesion ability of L. acidophilus to Caco-2 cells. Moreover, after SMG treatment, both the culture of L. acidophilus and its liquid phase exhibited higher antibacterial activity against S. typhimurium and S. aureus in a time-dependent manner. The SMG treatment also increased the in vitro cholesterol-lowering ability of L. acidophilus by regulating the expression of the key cholesterol metabolism genes CYP7A1, ABCB11, LDLR, and HMGCR in the HepG2 cell line. Thus, the SMG treatment did have considerable influence on some biological activities and characteristics of L. acidophilus related to human health. These findings provided valuable information for understanding the influence of probiotics on human health under simulated microgravity conditions, at least.

  4. Agent-based modelling of heating system adoption in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya; Kloeckner, Christian A.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2010-07-01

    Full text: This paper introduces agent-based modelling as a methodological approach to understand the effect of decision making mechanism on the adoption of heating systems in Norway. The model is used as an experimental/learning tool to design possible interventions, not for prediction. The intended users of the model are therefore policy designers. Primary heating system adoptions of electric heating, heat pump and wood pellet heating were selected. Random topology was chosen to represent social network among households. Agents were households with certain location, number of peers, current adopted heating system, employed decision strategy, and degree of social influence in decision making. The overall framework of decision-making integrated theories from different disciplines; customer behavior theory, behavioral economics, theory of planned behavior, and diffusion of innovation, in order to capture possible decision making processes in households. A mail survey of 270 Norwegian households conducted in 2008 was designed specifically for acquiring data for the simulation. The model represents real geographic area of households and simulates the overall fraction of adopted heating system under study. The model was calibrated with historical data from Statistics Norway (SSB). Interventions with respects to total cost, norms, indoor air quality, reliability, supply security, required work, could be explored using the model. For instance, the model demonstrates that a considerable total cost (investment and operating cost) increase of electric heating and heat pump, rather than a reduction of wood pellet heating's total cost, are required to initiate and speed up wood pellet adoption. (Author)

  5. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-05-03

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices.

  6. An Agent-Based Model of Institutional Life-Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Wäckerle

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We use an agent-based model to investigate the interdependent dynamics between individual agency and emergent socioeconomic structure, leading to institutional change in a generic way. Our model simulates the emergence and exit of institutional units, understood as generic governed social structures. We show how endogenized trust and exogenously given leader authority influences institutional change, i.e., diversity in institutional life-cycles. It turns out that these governed institutions (destructure in cyclical patterns dependent on the overall evolution of trust in the artificial society, while at the same time, influencing this evolution by supporting social learning. Simulation results indicate three scenarios of institutional life-cycles. Institutions may, (1 build up very fast and freeze the artificial society in a stable but fearful pattern (ordered system; (2 exist only for a short time, leading to a very trusty society (highly fluctuating system; and (3 structure in cyclical patterns over time and support social learning due to cumulative causation of societal trust (complex system.

  7. A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Noah; Drucker, Nick; Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

  8. Agent-based reasoning for distributed multi-INT analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inchiosa, Mario E.; Parker, Miles T.; Perline, Richard

    2006-05-01

    Fully exploiting the intelligence community's exponentially growing data resources will require computational approaches differing radically from those currently available. Intelligence data is massive, distributed, and heterogeneous. Conventional approaches requiring highly structured and centralized data will not meet this challenge. We report on a new approach, Agent-Based Reasoning (ABR). In NIST evaluations, the use of ABR software tripled analysts' solution speed, doubled accuracy, and halved perceived difficulty. ABR makes use of populations of fine-grained, locally interacting agents that collectively reason about intelligence scenarios in a self-organizing, "bottom-up" process akin to those found in biological and other complex systems. Reproduction rules allow agents to make inferences from multi-INT data, while movement rules organize information and optimize reasoning. Complementary deterministic and stochastic agent behaviors enhance reasoning power and flexibility. Agent interaction via small-world networks - such as are found in nervous systems, social networks, and power distribution grids - dramatically increases the rate of discovering intelligence fragments that usefully connect to yield new inferences. Small-world networks also support the distributed processing necessary to address intelligence community data challenges. In addition, we have found that ABR pre-processing can boost the performance of commercial text clustering software. Finally, we have demonstrated interoperability with Knowledge Engineering systems and seen that reasoning across diverse data sources can be a rich source of inferences.

  9. Simulating Emerging Space Industries with Agent-Based Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) calls for encouraging commercial participation as a top-level objective. Given current and future commercial activities, how...

  10. Investigating Ground Swarm Robotics Using Agent Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    Reduced Model 3550.7055 2145.4425 5696.1480 -LogLikelihood 19 DF 7101.411 ChiSquare 0.0000 Prob>ChiSq RSquare (U) Observations (or Sum Wgts...6.03662282 24.0528627 28.6551384 6.03785929 Wald ChiSquare 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2446 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000...9 DF 6867.151 ChiSquare 0.0000 Prob>ChiSq RSquare (U) Observations (or Sum Wgts) 0.6028 9900 Converged by Gradient Whole Model Test P (M

  11. Process efficiency simulation for key process parameters in biological methanogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien Bernacchi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available New generation biofuels are a suitable approach to produce energy carriers in an almost CO2 neutral way. A promising reaction is the conversion of CO2 and H2 to CH4. This contribution aims at elucidating a bioprocess comprised of a core reaction unit using microorganisms from the Archaea life domain, which metabolize CO2 and H2 to CH4, followed by a gas purification step. The process is simulated and analyzed thermodynamically using the Aspen Plus process simulation environment. The goal of the study was to quantify effects of process parameters on overall process efficiency using a kinetic model derived from previously published experimental results. The used empirical model links the production rate of CH4 and biomass to limiting reactant concentrations. In addition, Aspen Plus was used to improve bioprocess quantification. Impacts of pressure as well as dilution of reactant gas with up to 70% non-reactive gas on overall process efficiency was evaluated. Pressure in the reactor unit of 11 bar at 65℃ with a pressure of 21 bar for gas purification led to an overall process efficiency comprised between 66% and 70% for gaseous product and between 73% and 76% if heat of compression is considered a valuable product. The combination of 2 bar pressure in the reactor and 21 bar for purification was the most efficient combination of parameters. This result shows Aspen Plus potential for similar bioprocess development as it accounts for the energetic aspect of the entire process. In fact, the optimum for the overall process efficiency was found to differ from the optimum of the reaction unit. High efficiency of over 70% demonstrates that biological methanogenesis is a promising alternative for a chemical methanation reaction.

  12. An Agent-Based Modeling Template for a Cohort of Veterans with Diabetic Retinopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore Eugene Day

    Full Text Available Agent-based models are valuable for examining systems where large numbers of discrete individuals interact with each other, or with some environment. Diabetic Veterans seeking eye care at a Veterans Administration hospital represent one such cohort.The objective of this study was to develop an agent-based template to be used as a model for a patient with diabetic retinopathy (DR. This template may be replicated arbitrarily many times in order to generate a large cohort which is representative of a real-world population, upon which in-silico experimentation may be conducted.Agent-based template development was performed in java-based computer simulation suite AnyLogic Professional 6.6. The model was informed by medical data abstracted from 535 patient records representing a retrospective cohort of current patients of the VA St. Louis Healthcare System Eye clinic. Logistic regression was performed to determine the predictors associated with advancing stages of DR. Predicted probabilities obtained from logistic regression were used to generate the stage of DR in the simulated cohort.The simulated cohort of DR patients exhibited no significant deviation from the test population of real-world patients in proportion of stage of DR, duration of diabetes mellitus (DM, or the other abstracted predictors. Simulated patients after 10 years were significantly more likely to exhibit proliferative DR (P<0.001.Agent-based modeling is an emerging platform, capable of simulating large cohorts of individuals based on manageable data abstraction efforts. The modeling method described may be useful in simulating many different conditions where course of disease is described in categorical stages.

  13. CFD Simulation of Fouling by Biological materials in Membrane Bioreactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raziye, Ahmadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years membrane bioreactors filtration is increasingly used in wastewater treatment to enhance the quality of wastewater. The main problem in preventing the widespread use of membrane bioreactor is its congestion which has a severe impact on output flux to time ratio. If solid suspensions with high concentrations exist in the wastewater, this influence will be even more severe. In addition to the suspended solids in the liquid mixture, Extracellular polymeric materials (EPS and soluble microbial products (SMP are also known as basic microbial products that cause membrane fouling. EPS can be calculated within and on the membrane which increases the viscosity of suspended solids in the liquid mixture and increases filtration resistance. SMPs cannot penetrate the pores of the ultra filtration membrane due to the limited size of the pores which would cause fouling in membrane processes. According to the above issues, providing a model that indicates the properties and conditions of formation and destruction of SMP and EPS at the same time seems necessary. In this paper, CFD simulation of biological fouling in membrane bioreactor is provided using Fluent software.

  14. Effects of Simulated Rare Earth Recycling Wastewaters on Biological Nitrification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Yoshiko; Barnes, Joni; Eslamimanesh, Ali; Lencka, Malgorzata M; Anderko, Andrzej; Riman, Richard E; Navrotsky, Alexandra

    2015-08-18

    Increasing rare earth element (REE) supplies by recycling and expanded ore processing will result in generation of new wastewaters. In some cases, disposal to a sewage treatment plant may be favored, but plant performance must be maintained. To assess the potential effects of such wastewaters on biological treatment, model nitrifying organisms Nitrosomonas europaea and Nitrobacter winogradskyi were exposed to simulated wastewaters containing varying levels of yttrium or europium (10, 50, and 100 ppm), and the extractant tributyl phosphate (TBP, at 0.1 g/L). Y and Eu additions at 50 and 100 ppm inhibited N. europaea, even when virtually all of the REE was insoluble. Provision of TBP with Eu increased N. europaea inhibition, although TBP alone did not substantially alter activity. For N. winogradskyi cultures, Eu or Y additions at all tested levels induced significant inhibition, and nitrification shut down completely with TBP addition. REE solubility was calculated using the previously developed MSE (Mixed-Solvent Electrolyte) thermodynamic model. The model calculations reveal a strong pH dependence of solubility, typically controlled by the precipitation of REE hydroxides but also likely affected by the formation of unknown phosphate phases, which determined aqueous concentrations experienced by the microorganisms.

  15. Measure of Landscape Heterogeneity by Agent-Based Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, E.; Szabó, Gy.; Czinkóczky, A.

    2016-06-01

    With the rapid increase of the world's population, the efficient food production is one of the key factors of the human survival. Since biodiversity and heterogeneity is the basis of the sustainable agriculture, the authors tried to measure the heterogeneity of a chosen landscape. The EU farming and subsidizing policies (EEA, 2014) support landscape heterogeneity and diversity, nevertheless exact measurements and calculations apart from statistical parameters (standard deviation, mean), do not really exist. In the present paper the authors' goal is to find an objective, dynamic method that measures landscape heterogeneity. It is achieved with the so called agent-based modelling, where randomly dispatched dynamic scouts record the observed land cover parameters and sum up the features of a new type of land. During the simulation the agents collect a Monte Carlo integral as a diversity landscape potential which can be considered as the unit of the `greening' measure. As a final product of the ABM method, a landscape potential map is obtained that can serve as a tool for objective decision making to support agricultural diversity.

  16. Mobile Agent-Based Directed Diffusion in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor C. M. Leung

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In the environments where the source nodes are close to one another and generate a lot of sensory data traffic with redundancy, transmitting all sensory data by individual nodes not only wastes the scarce wireless bandwidth, but also consumes a lot of battery energy. Instead of each source node sending sensory data to its sink for aggregation (the so-called client/server computing, Qi et al. in 2003 proposed a mobile agent (MA-based distributed sensor network (MADSN for collaborative signal and information processing, which considerably reduces the sensory data traffic and query latency as well. However, MADSN is based on the assumption that the operation of mobile agent is only carried out within one hop in a clustering-based architecture. This paper considers MA in multihop environments and adopts directed diffusion (DD to dispatch MA. The gradient in DD gives a hint to efficiently forward the MA among target sensors. The mobile agent paradigm in combination with the DD framework is dubbed mobile agent-based directed diffusion (MADD. With appropriate parameters set, extensive simulation shows that MADD exhibits better performance than original DD (in the client/server paradigm in terms of packet delivery ratio, energy consumption, and end-to-end delivery latency.

  17. Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

  18. An Agent-based Strategy for Deploying Analysis Models into Specification and Design for Distributed APS Systems

    CERN Document Server

    de Santa-Eulalia, Luis Antonio; Frayret, Jean-Marc

    2011-01-01

    Despite the extensive use of the agent technology in the Supply Chain Management field, its integration with Advanced Planning and Scheduling (APS) tools still represents a promising field with several open research questions. Specifically, the literature falls short in providing an integrated framework to analyze, specify, design and implement simulation experiments covering the whole simulation cycle. Thus, this paper proposes an agent-based strategy to convert the 'analysis' models into 'specification' and 'design' models combining two existing methodologies proposed in the literature. The first one is a recent and unique approach dedicated to the 'analysis' of agent-based APS systems. The second one is a well-established methodological framework to 'specify' and 'design' agent-based supply chain systems. The proposed conversion strategy is original and is the first one allowing simulation analysts to integrate the whole simulation development process in the domain of distributed APS.

  19. ACO Agent Based Routing in AOMDV Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaur Amanpreet

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET is a group of moving nodes which can communicate with each other without the help of any central stationary node. All the nodes in the MANET act as router for forwarding data packets. The nodes in the network also move randomly and there exists no fixed infrastructure. So, path breaks are the frequent problem in MANET. The routing protocol faces a lot of problem due these path breaks. Therefore, the routing protocol which is multipath in nature is more reliable than a unipath routing protocol. Ant colony optimization is a relatively new technique which is suitable for the optimization problems. AOMDV is a multipath routing protocol. Thus, if there happens to be path break, the packets can start following the new path which has already been selected. In this paper, we are trying to add ant’s agents into AOMDV behavior. In this way, the new protocol will be benefited by the dual properties i.e. of ant’s nature and multipath nature of AOMDV. The modified concept is simulated and the outcomes are compared with AOMDV, AODV and DSR routing protocols for few performance parameters. Results obtained are encouraging; the new algorithm performs better than traditional unipath and multipath routing protocols.

  20. First steps in computational systems biology: A practical session in metabolic modeling and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Palomares, Armando; Sánchez-Jiménez, Francisca; Medina, Miguel Ángel

    2009-05-01

    A comprehensive understanding of biological functions requires new systemic perspectives, such as those provided by systems biology. Systems biology approaches are hypothesis-driven and involve iterative rounds of model building, prediction, experimentation, model refinement, and development. Developments in computer science are allowing for ever faster numerical simulations of mathematical models. Mathematical modeling plays an essential role in new systems biology approaches. As a complex, integrated system, metabolism is a suitable topic of study for systems biology approaches. However, up until recently, this topic has not been properly covered in biochemistry courses. This communication reports the development and implementation of a practical lesson plan on metabolic modeling and simulation.

  1. Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

    The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

  2. Fluctuation complexity of agent-based financial time series model by stochastic Potts system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Weijia; Wang, Jun

    2015-03-01

    Financial market is a complex evolved dynamic system with high volatilities and noises, and the modeling and analyzing of financial time series are regarded as the rather challenging tasks in financial research. In this work, by applying the Potts dynamic system, a random agent-based financial time series model is developed in an attempt to uncover the empirical laws in finance, where the Potts model is introduced to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents. Based on the computer simulation in conjunction with the statistical analysis and the nonlinear analysis, we present numerical research to investigate the fluctuation behaviors of the proposed time series model. Furthermore, in order to get a robust conclusion, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, and the comparison analysis of return behaviors between the simulation data and the actual data is exhibited.

  3. Quantitative agent based model of user behavior in an Internet discussion forum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawel Sobkowicz

    Full Text Available The paper presents an agent based simulation of opinion evolution, based on a nonlinear emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O individual dynamics, to an actual Internet discussion forum. The goal is to reproduce the results of two-year long observations and analyses of the user communication behavior and of the expressed opinions and emotions, via simulations using an agent based model. The model allowed to derive various characteristics of the forum, including the distribution of user activity and popularity (outdegree and indegree, the distribution of length of dialogs between the participants, their political sympathies and the emotional content and purpose of the comments. The parameters used in the model have intuitive meanings, and can be translated into psychological observables.

  4. Quantitative agent based model of user behavior in an Internet discussion forum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents an agent based simulation of opinion evolution, based on a nonlinear emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) individual dynamics, to an actual Internet discussion forum. The goal is to reproduce the results of two-year long observations and analyses of the user communication behavior and of the expressed opinions and emotions, via simulations using an agent based model. The model allowed to derive various characteristics of the forum, including the distribution of user activity and popularity (outdegree and indegree), the distribution of length of dialogs between the participants, their political sympathies and the emotional content and purpose of the comments. The parameters used in the model have intuitive meanings, and can be translated into psychological observables.

  5. Agent-based model for rural-urban migration: A dynamic consideration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Ning; Ma, Hai-Ying; Khan, M. Junaid

    2015-10-01

    This paper develops a dynamic agent-based model for rural-urban migration, based on the previous relevant works. The model conforms to the typical dynamic linear multi-agent systems model concerned extensively in systems science, in which the communication network is formulated as a digraph. Simulations reveal that consensus of certain variable could be harmful to the overall stability and should be avoided.

  6. Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de C Williams, Amanda C; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R; Bentley, Peter J

    2016-03-01

    Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time.

  7. A Friendly-Biological Reactor SIMulator (BioReSIM for studying biological processes in wastewater treatment processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raul Molina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Biological processes for wastewater treatments are inherently dynamic systems because of the large variations in the influent wastewater flow rate, concentration composition and the adaptive behavior of the involved microorganisms. Moreover, the sludge retention time (SRT is a critical factor to understand the bioreactor performances when changes in the influent or in the operation conditions take place. Since SRT are usually in the range of 10-30 days, the performance of biological reactors needs a long time to be monitored in a regular laboratory demonstration, limiting the knowledge that can be obtained in the experimental lab practice. In order to overcome this lack, mathematical models and computer simulations are useful tools to describe biochemical processes and predict the overall performance of bioreactors under different working operation conditions and variations of the inlet wastewater composition. The mathematical solution of the model could be difficult as numerous biochemical processes can be considered. Additionally, biological reactors description (mass balance, etc. needs models represented by partial or/and ordinary differential equations associated to algebraic expressions, that require complex computational codes to obtain the numerical solutions. Different kind of software for mathematical modeling can be used, from large degree of freedom simulators capable of free models definition (as AQUASIM, to closed predefined model structure programs (as BIOWIN. The first ones usually require long learning curves, whereas the second ones could be excessively rigid for specific wastewater treatment systems. As alternative, we present Biological Reactor SIMulator (BioReSIM, a MATLAB code for the simulation of sequencing batch reactors (SBR and rotating biological contactors (RBC as biological systems of suspended and attached biomass for wastewater treatment, respectively. This BioReSIM allows the evaluation of simple and complex

  8. Agent-Based Design for E-learning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khadidja Harbouche

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We presented an agent-based e-learning environment. Our aim was to allow many users to interact collectively and intelligently with the environment. In this cooperation model, human users and artificial agents carry out tasks in the learners’ service. We define the internal structure of our kernel supposed to work within Internet/Intranet settings. Design was structured in three parts: individual learning space, collaborative space, and cooperative space. We advocate the employment of an agent-based approach, a suitable for two main reasons: agents were a natural metaphor of human acts, and the learning systems are generally complex. Prometheus methodology used for the design and emphasis placed on the agent-based features.

  9. Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalii Nikolaevich Makoveev

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to study the essence of agent-based modeling, defining its features and prospects of usage in the modeling of socio-economic development of territories and systematization of domestic and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. Information basis for the research comprised the works on agent-based modeling by Russian and foreign scholars, especially articles and monographs of scientists of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, papers presented in an international journal The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation and other sources available on the Internet. The article presents theoretical and methodological foundations of agent-based models of territories. The author considers the concepts of “agent-based modeling” and “agent” and defines specifics of agent-based models in comparison with other types of simulation modeling. The paper also describes major stages of building agent-based models for territories and considers qualification requirements to a modeling subject. Furthermore, it reviews Russian and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. It has been determined that most of them deal with the modeling of spatial, territorial and socio-economic development of regions, cities and municipal entities. Agents in such models are presented by households, residents of regions and cities, enterprises and organizations operating in their territory, and public administration authorities (their inclusion in the model makes it possible to test different options of management impacts on territories by changing the model parameters, for instance, the introduction of certain prohibitions and quotas, issuance of permits, distribution of financial resources, etc.. At the end of the paper, the author formulates major conclusions. He shows the complexity faced

  10. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merler Stefano

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. Methods We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. Results The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age

  11. Equation-free analysis of agent-based models and systematic parameter determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Spencer A.; Lloyd, David J. B.; Skeldon, Anne C.

    2016-12-01

    Agent based models (ABM)s are increasingly used in social science, economics, mathematics, biology and computer science to describe time dependent systems in circumstances where a description in terms of equations is difficult. Yet few tools are currently available for the systematic analysis of ABM behaviour. Numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis is a well-established tool for the study of deterministic systems. Recently, equation-free (EF) methods have been developed to extend numerical continuation techniques to systems where the dynamics are described at a microscopic scale and continuation of a macroscopic property of the system is considered. To date, the practical use of EF methods has been limited by; (1) the over-head of application-specific implementation; (2) the laborious configuration of problem-specific parameters; and (3) large ensemble sizes (potentially) leading to computationally restrictive run-times. In this paper we address these issues with our tool for the EF continuation of stochastic systems, which includes algorithms to systematically configuration problem specific parameters and enhance robustness to noise. Our tool is generic and can be applied to any 'black-box' simulator and determines the essential EF parameters prior to EF analysis. Robustness is significantly improved using our convergence-constraint with a corrector-repeat (C3R) method. This algorithm automatically detects outliers based on the dynamics of the underlying system enabling both an order of magnitude reduction in ensemble size and continuation of systems at much higher levels of noise than classical approaches. We demonstrate our method with application to several ABM models, revealing parameter dependence, bifurcation and stability analysis of these complex systems giving a deep understanding of the dynamical behaviour of the models in a way that is not otherwise easily obtainable. In each case we demonstrate our systematic parameter determination stage for

  12. Deterministic Agent-Based Path Optimization by Mimicking the Spreading of Ripples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Di Paolo, Ezequiel A; Liu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Inspirations from nature have contributed fundamentally to the development of evolutionary computation. Learning from the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, this article proposes a novel ripple-spreading algorithm (RSA) for the path optimization problem (POP). In nature, a ripple spreads at a constant speed in all directions, and the node closest to the source is the first to be reached. This very simple principle forms the foundation of the proposed RSA. In contrast to most deterministic top-down centralized path optimization methods, such as Dijkstra's algorithm, the RSA is a bottom-up decentralized agent-based simulation model. Moreover, it is distinguished from other agent-based algorithms, such as genetic algorithms and ant colony optimization, by being a deterministic method that can always guarantee the global optimal solution with very good scalability. Here, the RSA is specifically applied to four different POPs. The comparative simulation results illustrate the advantages of the RSA in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. Thanks to the agent-based and deterministic features, the RSA opens new opportunities to attack some problems, such as calculating the exact complete Pareto front in multiobjective optimization and determining the kth shortest project time in project management, which are very difficult, if not impossible, for existing methods to resolve. The ripple-spreading optimization principle and the new distinguishing features and capacities of the RSA enrich the theoretical foundations of evolutionary computation.

  13. Agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhenhua

    The active hybridization technique provides an effective approach to combining the best properties of a heterogeneous set of power sources to achieve higher energy density, power density and fuel efficiency. Active hybrid power sources can be used to power hybrid electric vehicles with selected combinations of internal combustion engines, fuel cells, batteries, and/or supercapacitors. They can be deployed in all-electric ships to build a distributed electric power system. They can also be used in a bulk power system to construct an autonomous distributed energy system. An important aspect in designing an active hybrid power source is to find a suitable control strategy that can manage the active power sharing and take advantage of the inherent scalability and robustness benefits of the hybrid system. This paper presents an agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed agent-based power sharing scheme, simulation studies are performed for a hybrid power source that can be used in a solar car as the main propulsion power module. Simulation results clearly indicate that the agent-based control framework is effective to coordinate the various energy sources and manage the power/voltage profiles.

  14. Architectural considerations for agent-based national scale policy models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Strip, David R.

    2007-09-01

    The need to anticipate the consequences of policy decisions becomes ever more important as the magnitude of the potential consequences grows. The multiplicity of connections between the components of society and the economy makes intuitive assessments extremely unreliable. Agent-based modeling has the potential to be a powerful tool in modeling policy impacts. The direct mapping between agents and elements of society and the economy simplify the mapping of real world functions into the world of computation assessment. Our modeling initiative is motivated by the desire to facilitate informed public debate on alternative policies for how we, as a nation, provide healthcare to our population. We explore the implications of this motivation on the design and implementation of a model. We discuss the choice of an agent-based modeling approach and contrast it to micro-simulation and systems dynamics approaches.

  15. FDTD Simulation of Exposure of Biological Material to Electromagnetic Nanopulses

    CERN Document Server

    Simicevic, N; Simicevic, Neven; Haynie, Donald T

    2004-01-01

    Ultra-wideband (UWB) electromagnetic pulses of nanosecond duration, or nanopulses, are of considerable interest to the communications industry and are being explored for various applications in biotechnology and medicine. The propagation of a nanopulse through biological matter has been computed in the time domain using the finite difference-time domain method (FDTD). The approach required existing Cole-Cole model-based descriptions of dielectric properties of biological matter to be re-parametrized using the Debye model, but without loss of accuracy. The approach has been applied to several tissue types. Results show that the electromagnetic field inside a biological tissue depends on incident pulse rise time and width. Rise time dominates pulse behavior inside a tissue as conductivity increases. It has also been found that the amount of energy deposited by 20 $kV/m$ nanopulses is insufficient to change the temperature of the exposed material for the pulse repetition rates of 1 $MHz$ or less.

  16. Efficient modeling, simulation and coarse-graining of biological complexity with NFsim.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneddon, Michael W; Faeder, James R; Emonet, Thierry

    2011-02-01

    Managing the overwhelming numbers of molecular states and interactions is a fundamental obstacle to building predictive models of biological systems. Here we introduce the Network-Free Stochastic Simulator (NFsim), a general-purpose modeling platform that overcomes the combinatorial nature of molecular interactions. Unlike standard simulators that represent molecular species as variables in equations, NFsim uses a biologically intuitive representation: objects with binding and modification sites acted on by reaction rules. During simulations, rules operate directly on molecular objects to produce exact stochastic results with performance that scales independently of the reaction network size. Reaction rates can be defined as arbitrary functions of molecular states to provide powerful coarse-graining capabilities, for example to merge Boolean and kinetic representations of biological networks. NFsim enables researchers to simulate many biological systems that were previously inaccessible to general-purpose software, as we illustrate with models of immune system signaling, microbial signaling, cytoskeletal assembly and oscillating gene expression.

  17. STOCHSIMGPU: parallel stochastic simulation for the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 for MATLAB

    KAUST Repository

    Klingbeil, G.

    2011-02-25

    Motivation: The importance of stochasticity in biological systems is becoming increasingly recognized and the computational cost of biologically realistic stochastic simulations urgently requires development of efficient software. We present a new software tool STOCHSIMGPU that exploits graphics processing units (GPUs) for parallel stochastic simulations of biological/chemical reaction systems and show that significant gains in efficiency can be made. It is integrated into MATLAB and works with the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 (SBTOOLBOX2) for MATLAB. Results: The GPU-based parallel implementation of the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), the logarithmic direct method (LDM) and the next reaction method (NRM) is approximately 85 times faster than the sequential implementation of the NRM on a central processing unit (CPU). Using our software does not require any changes to the user\\'s models, since it acts as a direct replacement of the stochastic simulation software of the SBTOOLBOX2. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  18. Agent-Based Decentralized Control Method for Islanded Microgrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Qiang; Chen, Feixiong; Chen, Minyou;

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an agent-based decentralized control model for islanded microgrids is proposed, which consists of a two-layer control structure. The bottom layer is the electrical distribution microgrid, while the top layer is the communication network composed of agents. An agent is regarded as a...

  19. An Intelligent Agent Based on Virtual Geographic Environment System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Dayong; LIN Hui; GONG Jianhua; ZHAO Yibin; FANG Zhaobao; GUO Zhongyang

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of previous work, this paper designs an intelligent agent based on virtual geographic environment (VGE) system that is characterized by huge data, rapid computation, multi-user, multi-thread and intelligence and issues challenges to traditional GIS models and algorithms. The new advances in software and hardware technology lay a reliable basis for system design, development and application.

  20. On infrastructure network design with agent-based modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Heijnen, P.W.

    2014-01-01

    We have developed an agent-based model to optimize green-field network design in an industrial area. We aim to capture some of the deep uncertainties surrounding infrastructure design by modelling it developing specific ant colony optimizations. Hence, we propose a variety of extensions to our exist

  1. Agent-based transportation planning compared with scheduling heuristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mes, Martijn; Heijden, van der Matthieu; Harten, van Aart

    2004-01-01

    Here we consider the problem of dynamically assigning vehicles to transportation orders that have di¤erent time windows and should be handled in real time. We introduce a new agent-based system for the planning and scheduling of these transportation networks. Intelligent vehicle agents schedule thei

  2. Agent-based Multimodal Interface for Dynamically Autonomous Mobile Robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    Agent-based Multimodal Interface for Dynamically Autonomous Mobile Robots Donald Sofge, Magdalena Bugajska, William Adams, Dennis...computing paradigm for integrated distributed artificial intelligence systems on autonomous mobile robots (Figure 1). Figure 1 – CoABS Grid...Architecture for Dynamically Autonomous Mobile Robots The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes our integrated AI

  3. Agent-based modelling of socio-technical systems

    CERN Document Server

    van Dam, Koen H; Lukszo, Zofia

    2012-01-01

    Here is a practical introduction to agent-based modelling of socio-technical systems, based on methodology developed at TU Delft, which has been deployed in a number of case studies. Offers theory, methods and practical steps for creating real-world models.

  4. Agent-based services for B2B electronic commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Elizabeth; Ivezic, Nenad; Rhodes, Tom; Peng, Yun

    2000-12-01

    The potential of agent-based systems has not been realized yet, in part, because of the lack of understanding of how the agent technology supports industrial needs and emerging standards. The area of business-to-business electronic commerce (b2b e-commerce) is one of the most rapidly developing sectors of industry with huge impact on manufacturing practices. In this paper, we investigate the current state of agent technology and the feasibility of applying agent-based computing to b2b e-commerce in the circuit board manufacturing sector. We identify critical tasks and opportunities in the b2b e-commerce area where agent-based services can best be deployed. We describe an implemented agent-based prototype system to facilitate the bidding process for printed circuit board manufacturing and assembly. These activities are taking place within the Internet Commerce for Manufacturing (ICM) project, the NIST- sponsored project working with industry to create an environment where small manufacturers of mechanical and electronic components may participate competitively in virtual enterprises that manufacture printed circuit assemblies.

  5. A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Based Assessment Approach to Enhance Students' Learning Motivation through Negotiated Skills Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadli, Abdelhafid; Bendella, Fatima; Tranvouez, Erwan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an Agent-based evaluation approach in a context of Multi-agent simulation learning systems. Our evaluation model is based on a two stage assessment approach: (1) a Distributed skill evaluation combining agents and fuzzy sets theory; and (2) a Negotiation based evaluation of students' performance during a training…

  6. Agent-Based Evacuation Model Incorporating Fire Scene and Building Geometry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Fangqin; REN Aizhu

    2008-01-01

    A comprehensive description of the key factors affecting evacuations at fire scones is necessary for accurate simulations.An agent-based simulation model which incorporates the fire scene and the building geometry is developed using a fire dynamics simulator (FDS) based on the computational fluid dynamics and geographic information system (GIS) data to model the occupant response.The building entities are generated for FDS simulation while the spatial analysis on GIS data represents the occupant's knowledge of the building.The influence of the fire is based on a hazard assessment of the combustion products.The agent behavior and decisions are affected by environmental features and the fire field.A case study demonstrates that the evacuation model effectively simulates the coexistence and interactions of the major factors including occupants,building geometry,and fire disaster during the evacuation.The results can be used for the assessments of building designs regarding fire safety.

  7. Simulation and visualization of coupled hydrodynamical, chemical and biological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dag Slagstad

    1997-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper briefly describes the principles of hydrodynamical and ecological modelling of marine systems and how model results are presented by use of MATLAB. Two application examples are shown. One refers to modelling and simulation of the carbon vertical transport in the Greenland Sea and the other is a study on the effect of wind pattern for the invasion success of zooplankton from the Norwegian Sea into the North Sea by use of particle tracking.

  8. Recent advances in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Fujita, Katsuhide; Robu, Valentin

    2016-01-01

    This book covers recent advances in Complex Automated Negotiations as a widely studied emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. The book includes selected revised and extended papers from the 7th International Workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiation (ACAN2014), which was held in Paris, France, in May 2014. The book also includes brief introductions about Agent-based Complex Automated Negotiation which are based on tutorials provided in the workshop, and brief summaries and descriptions about the ANAC'14 (Automated Negotiating Agents Competition) competition, where authors of selected finalist agents explain the strategies and the ideas used by them. The book is targeted to academic and industrial researchers in various communities of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, such as agreement technology, mechanism design, electronic commerce, related areas, as well as graduate, undergraduate, and PhD students working in those areas or having interest in them.

  9. Agent-based Modelling, a new kind of research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Held, Fabian P.; Wilkinson, Ian F.; Marks, Robert E.;

    2014-01-01

    We discuss the use of Agent-based Modelling for the development and testing of theories about emergent social phenomena in marketing and the social sciences in general. We address both theoretical aspects about the types of phenomena that are suitably addressed with this approach and practical gu...... development. The main goal of this paper was to make research on complex social systems more accessible and help anticipate and structure the research process. © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Marketing Academy.......We discuss the use of Agent-based Modelling for the development and testing of theories about emergent social phenomena in marketing and the social sciences in general. We address both theoretical aspects about the types of phenomena that are suitably addressed with this approach and practical...

  10. A Framework for Agent-based Human Interaction Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Bürkle

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe an agent-based infrastructure for multimodal perceptual systems which aims at developing and realizing computer services that are delivered to humans in an implicit and unobtrusive way. The framework presented here supports the implementation of human-centric context-aware applications providing non-obtrusive assistance to participants in events such as meetings, lectures, conferences and presentations taking place in indoor "smart spaces". We emphasize on the design and implementation of an agent-based framework that supports "pluggable" service logic in the sense that the service developer can concentrate on coding the service logic independently of the underlying middleware. Furthermore, we give an example of the architecture's ability to support the cooperation of multiple services in a meeting scenario using an intelligent connector service and a semantic web oriented travel service.

  11. Novel insights in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez-Carmona, Miguel; Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Bai, Quan; Fujita, Katsuhide

    2014-01-01

    This book focuses on all aspects of complex automated negotiations, which are studied in the field of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems. This book consists of two parts. I: Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations, and II: Automated Negotiation Agents Competition. The chapters in Part I are extended versions of papers presented at the 2012 international workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiation (ACAN), after peer reviews by three Program Committee members. Part II examines in detail ANAC 2012 (The Third Automated Negotiating Agents Competition), in which automated agents that have different negotiation strategies and are implemented by different developers are automatically negotiated in the several negotiation domains. ANAC is an international competition in which automated negotiation strategies, submitted by a number of universities and research institutes across the world, are evaluated in tournament style. The purpose of the competition is to steer the research in the area of bilate...

  12. A Large Scale, High Resolution Agent-Based Insurgency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    contains color images. 14. ABSTRACT Recent years have seen a large growth in research developed aimed at modeling the intricate social-cultural climate in...a relatively small (40x40) lattice with toroidal structure, such that agent movement that extended beyond a grid edge would appear on the opposite...locations containing obstacles such as rivers. 8 A Large Scale, High Resolution Agent-Based Insurgency Model Figure 3. Black and white mask of the

  13. Essays in Agent-Based Macro and Monetary Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Lengnick, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three major parts. The first part (chapter 2 and 3) presents different models which integrate macroeconomics with agent-based financial markets. These models feature bounded rational expectations. They are applied to analyse the impact of financial market speculation on the macro economy in general and the performance of several kinds of financial transaction taxes as well as conventional and unconventional monetary policy in particular. The second part (chapter ...

  14. Agent based decision support in the supply chain context

    OpenAIRE

    Hilletofth, Per; Lättilä, Lauri

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the benefits and the barriers of agent based decision support (ABDS) systems in the supply chain context. Design/methodology/approach – Two ABDS systems have been developed and evaluated. The first system concerns a manufacturing supply chain while the second concerns a service supply chain. The systems are based on actual case companies. Findings – This research shows that the benefits of ABDS systems in the supply chain context include t...

  15. Human Metabolic Network: Reconstruction, Simulation, and Applications in Systems Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ming; Chan, Christina

    2012-01-01

    Metabolism is crucial to cell growth and proliferation. Deficiency or alterations in metabolic functions are known to be involved in many human diseases. Therefore, understanding the human metabolic system is important for the study and treatment of complex diseases. Current reconstructions of the global human metabolic network provide a computational platform to integrate genome-scale information on metabolism. The platform enables a systematic study of the regulation and is applicable to a wide variety of cases, wherein one could rely on in silico perturbations to predict novel targets, interpret systemic effects, and identify alterations in the metabolic states to better understand the genotype-phenotype relationships. In this review, we describe the reconstruction of the human metabolic network, introduce the constraint based modeling approach to analyze metabolic networks, and discuss systems biology applications to study human physiology and pathology. We highlight the challenges and opportunities in network reconstruction and systems modeling of the human metabolic system. PMID:24957377

  16. A Biologic Behavior Simulation:Living Migration Algorithm (LMA)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Dou-dou; SHAO Shi-huang; QI Jin-peng

    2008-01-01

    Biologic behaviors are the principal source for proposing new intelligent algorithms.Based on the mechanism of the bio-subsistence and the bio-migration,this paper proposes a novel algorithm-Living Migration Algorithm (LMA).The original contributions of LMA are three essential attributes of each individual:the minimal life-needs which ale the necessaries for survival,the migrating which is a basal action for searching new living space,and the judging which is an important ability of deciding whether to migrate or not.When living space of all individuals can satisfy the minimal life-needs at some generation,they are considered as the optimal living places where objective functions will obtain the optima.LMA may be employed in large-scale computation and engineering field.The paper mostly operates LMA to deal with four nonlinear and heterogeneous optimizations,and experiments prove LMA has better performances than Free Search algorithm.

  17. Finding shared decisions in stakeholder networks: An agent-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pira, Michela; Inturri, Giuseppe; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2017-01-01

    We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions. An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

  18. Genetic Algorithms for Agent-Based Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May Permann

    2007-03-01

    Today’s society relies greatly upon an array of complex national and international infrastructure networks such as transportation, electric power, telecommunication, and financial networks. This paper describes initial research combining agent-based infrastructure modeling software and genetic algorithms (GAs) to help optimize infrastructure protection and restoration decisions. This research proposes to apply GAs to the problem of infrastructure modeling and analysis in order to determine the optimum assets to restore or protect from attack or other disaster. This research is just commencing and therefore the focus of this paper is the integration of a GA optimization method with a simulation through the simulation’s agents.

  19. A Harris-Todaro Agent-Based Model to Rural-Urban Migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espíndola, Aquino L.; Silveira, Jaylson J.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2006-09-01

    The Harris-Todaro model of the rural-urban migration process is revisited under an agent-based approach. The migration of the workers is interpreted as a process of social learning by imitation, formalized by a computational model. By simulating this model, we observe a transitional dynamics with continuous growth of the urban fraction of overall population toward an equilibrium. Such an equilibrium is characterized by stabilization of rural-urban expected wages differential (generalized Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and urban unemployment. These classic results obtained originally by Harris and Todaro are emergent properties of our model.

  20. Introducing spatial information into predictive NF-kappaB modelling--an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Pogson

    Full Text Available Nature is governed by local interactions among lower-level sub-units, whether at the cell, organ, organism, or colony level. Adaptive system behaviour emerges via these interactions, which integrate the activity of the sub-units. To understand the system level it is necessary to understand the underlying local interactions. Successful models of local interactions at different levels of biological organisation, including epithelial tissue and ant colonies, have demonstrated the benefits of such 'agent-based' modelling. Here we present an agent-based approach to modelling a crucial biological system--the intracellular NF-kappaB signalling pathway. The pathway is vital to immune response regulation, and is fundamental to basic survival in a range of species. Alterations in pathway regulation underlie a variety of diseases, including atherosclerosis and arthritis. Our modelling of individual molecules, receptors and genes provides a more comprehensive outline of regulatory network mechanisms than previously possible with equation-based approaches. The method also permits consideration of structural parameters in pathway regulation; here we predict that inhibition of NF-kappaB is directly affected by actin filaments of the cytoskeleton sequestering excess inhibitors, therefore regulating steady-state and feedback behaviour.

  1. A Novel CPU/GPU Simulation Environment for Large-Scale Biologically-Realistic Neural Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger V Hoang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Computational Neuroscience is an emerging field that provides unique opportunities to studycomplex brain structures through realistic neural simulations. However, as biological details are added tomodels, the execution time for the simulation becomes longer. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs are now being utilized to accelerate simulations due to their ability to perform computations in parallel. As such, they haveshown significant improvement in execution time compared to Central Processing Units (CPUs. Most neural simulators utilize either multiple CPUs or a single GPU for better performance, but still show limitations in execution time when biological details are not sacrificed. Therefore, we present a novel CPU/GPU simulation environment for large-scale biological networks,the NeoCortical Simulator version 6 (NCS6. NCS6 is a free, open-source, parallelizable, and scalable simula-tor, designed to run on clusters of multiple machines, potentially with high performance computing devicesin each of them. It has built-in leaky-integrate-and-fire (LIF and Izhikevich (IZH neuron models, but usersalso have the capability to design their own plug-in interface for different neuron types as desired. NCS6is currently able to simulate one million cells and 100 million synapses in quasi real time by distributing dataacross these heterogeneous clusters of CPUs and GPUs.

  2. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-06-12

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.

  3. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework and Application for the Generic Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidden, Matthew J.

    Key components of a novel methodology and implementation of an agent-based, dynamic nuclear fuel cycle simulator, Cyclus , are presented. The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex, physics-dependent supply chain. To date, existing dynamic simulators have not treated constrained fuel supply, time-dependent, isotopic-quality based demand, or fuel fungibility particularly well. Utilizing an agent-based methodology that incorporates sophisticated graph theory and operations research techniques can overcome these deficiencies. This work describes a simulation kernel and agents that interact with it, highlighting the Dynamic Resource Exchange (DRE), the supply-demand framework at the heart of the kernel. The key agent-DRE interaction mechanisms are described, which enable complex entity interaction through the use of physics and socio-economic models. The translation of an exchange instance to a variant of the Multicommodity Transportation Problem, which can be solved feasibly or optimally, follows. An extensive investigation of solution performance and fidelity is then presented. Finally, recommendations for future users of Cyclus and the DRE are provided.

  4. On Designing Multicore-Aware Simulators for Systems Biology Endowed with OnLine Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aldinucci

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper arguments are on enabling methodologies for the design of a fully parallel, online, interactive tool aiming to support the bioinformatics scientists .In particular, the features of these methodologies, supported by the FastFlow parallel programming framework, are shown on a simulation tool to perform the modeling, the tuning, and the sensitivity analysis of stochastic biological models. A stochastic simulation needs thousands of independent simulation trajectories turning into big data that should be analysed by statistic and data mining tools. In the considered approach the two stages are pipelined in such a way that the simulation stage streams out the partial results of all simulation trajectories to the analysis stage that immediately produces a partial result. The simulation-analysis workflow is validated for performance and effectiveness of the online analysis in capturing biological systems behavior on a multicore platform and representative proof-of-concept biological systems. The exploited methodologies include pattern-based parallel programming and data streaming that provide key features to the software designers such as performance portability and efficient in-memory (big data management and movement. Two paradigmatic classes of biological systems exhibiting multistable and oscillatory behavior are used as a testbed.

  5. On designing multicore-aware simulators for systems biology endowed with OnLine statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldinucci, Marco; Calcagno, Cristina; Coppo, Mario; Damiani, Ferruccio; Drocco, Maurizio; Sciacca, Eva; Spinella, Salvatore; Torquati, Massimo; Troina, Angelo

    2014-01-01

    The paper arguments are on enabling methodologies for the design of a fully parallel, online, interactive tool aiming to support the bioinformatics scientists .In particular, the features of these methodologies, supported by the FastFlow parallel programming framework, are shown on a simulation tool to perform the modeling, the tuning, and the sensitivity analysis of stochastic biological models. A stochastic simulation needs thousands of independent simulation trajectories turning into big data that should be analysed by statistic and data mining tools. In the considered approach the two stages are pipelined in such a way that the simulation stage streams out the partial results of all simulation trajectories to the analysis stage that immediately produces a partial result. The simulation-analysis workflow is validated for performance and effectiveness of the online analysis in capturing biological systems behavior on a multicore platform and representative proof-of-concept biological systems. The exploited methodologies include pattern-based parallel programming and data streaming that provide key features to the software designers such as performance portability and efficient in-memory (big) data management and movement. Two paradigmatic classes of biological systems exhibiting multistable and oscillatory behavior are used as a testbed.

  6. Simulations of curved assemblies in soft matter and biological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Cong

    Viruses are small infectious agents that replicate only inside living cells of other organisms. In the viral life cycle, the self-assembly of the outer protein shell (capsid) is an essential step. We study this process in the hope of shedding light on development of antiviral drugs, gene therapy and other virus-related technologies that can benefit the humankind. More fundamentally, learning about the process of viral capsid assembly can elucidate the assembly mechanisms of a wide range of complex structures. In this work, we use molecular dynamics simulations and coarse-grained computational models to study viral capsid assembly in several situations where geometric constraints play a role in dictating assembly outcomes. We first focus on icosahedral viruses with single-stranded RNA genomes, in which case the capsid usually assembles around the genomic RNA. It is consistently observed in experiments that such viral particles are ''overcharged'', meaning the net negative charge on the viral genome is greater than the net positive charge on the viral capsid. We computationally investigate the mechanisms that lead to ``overcharging'', and more broadly, how the encapsidated genome length is influenced by the capsid. We perform both dynamical simulations of the assembly process and equilibrium calculations to determine the optimal genome length (meaning that which maximizes the assembly yield and/or minimizes the free energy of the assembled virus). We find that the optimal genome length is determined by the interplay between capsid size, net capsid charge, distribution of capsid charge and nucleic acid structures. Our simulations demonstrate that overcharging results from a combination of electrostatic screening and the geometric constraints associated with encapsulating a nucleic acid inside of a spherical virus. We then study the assembly of the immature HIV. In contrast to icosahedral viruses, the immature HIV forms an asymmetric particle, consisting of continuous

  7. Simulations in statistical physics and biology: some applications

    CERN Document Server

    Monsivais-Alonso, M P

    2006-01-01

    One of the most active areas of physics in the last decades has been that of critical phenomena, and Monte Carlo simulations have played an important role as a guide for the validation and prediction of system properties close to the critical points. The kind of phase transitions occurring for the Betts lattice (lattice constructed removing 1/7 of the sites from the triangular lattice) have been studied before with the Potts model for the values q=3, ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic regime. Here, we add up to this research line the ferromagnetic case for q=4 and 5. In the first case, the critical exponents are estimated for the second order transition, whereas for the latter case the histogram method is applied for the occurring first order transition. Additionally, Domany's Monte Carlo based clustering technique mainly used to group genes similar in their expression levels is reviewed. Finally, a control theory tool --an adaptive observer-- is applied to estimate the exponent parameter involved in the wel...

  8. Agent-based model for the h-index - Exact solution

    CERN Document Server

    Żogała-Siudem, Barbara; Cena, Anna; Gagolewski, Marek

    2015-01-01

    The Hirsch's $h$-index is perhaps the most popular citation-based measure of the scientific excellence. In 2013 G. Ionescu and B. Chopard proposed an agent-based model for this index to describe a publications and citations generation process in an abstract scientific community. With such an approach one can simulate a single scientist's activity, and by extension investigate the whole community of researchers. Even though this approach predicts quite well the $h$-index from bibliometric data, only a solution based on simulations was given. In this paper, we complete their results with exact, analytic formulas. What is more, due to our exact solution we are able to simplify the Ionescu-Chopard model which allows us to obtain a compact formula for $h$-index. Moreover, a simulation study designed to compare both, approximated and exact, solutions is included. The last part of this paper presents evaluation of the obtained results on a real-word data set.

  9. Simulation Techniques and Prosthetic Approach Towards Biologically Efficient Artificial Sense Organs- An Overview

    CERN Document Server

    Neogi, Biswarup; Mukherjee, Soumyajit; Das, Achintya; Tibarewala, D N

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the applications of control theory to prosthetic sense organs including the senses of vision, taste and odor is being presented in this paper. Simulation aspect nowadays has been the centre of research in the field of prosthesis. There have been various successful applications of prosthetic organs, in case of natural biological organs dis-functioning patients. Simulation aspects and control modeling are indispensible for knowing system performance, and to generate an original approach of artificial organs. This overview focuses mainly on control techniques, by far a theoretical overview and fusion of artificial sense organs trying to mimic the efficacies of biologically active sensory organs. Keywords: virtual reality, prosthetic vision, artificial

  10. High performance hybrid functional Petri net simulations of biological pathway models on CUDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkidis, Georgios; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

    2011-01-01

    Hybrid functional Petri nets are a wide-spread tool for representing and simulating biological models. Due to their potential of providing virtual drug testing environments, biological simulations have a growing impact on pharmaceutical research. Continuous research advancements in biology and medicine lead to exponentially increasing simulation times, thus raising the demand for performance accelerations by efficient and inexpensive parallel computation solutions. Recent developments in the field of general-purpose computation on graphics processing units (GPGPU) enabled the scientific community to port a variety of compute intensive algorithms onto the graphics processing unit (GPU). This work presents the first scheme for mapping biological hybrid functional Petri net models, which can handle both discrete and continuous entities, onto compute unified device architecture (CUDA) enabled GPUs. GPU accelerated simulations are observed to run up to 18 times faster than sequential implementations. Simulating the cell boundary formation by Delta-Notch signaling on a CUDA enabled GPU results in a speedup of approximately 7x for a model containing 1,600 cells.

  11. The Conception of the New Agent-Based Platform for Modeling and Implementation of Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Sabba

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary algorithms (EAs are a range of problem-solving techniques based on mechanisms inspired by biological evolution. Nowadays, EAs have proven their ability and effectiveness to solve combinatorial problems. However, these methods require a considerable time of calculation. To overcome this problem, several parallelization strategies have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we present a new parallel agent-based EC framework for solving numerical optimization problems in order to optimize computation time and solutions quality.

  12. Discovery and Development of Natural Product-derived Chemotherapeutic Agents Based on a Medicinal Chemistry Approach⊥†

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Kuo-Hsiung

    2010-01-01

    Medicinal plants have long been an excellent source of pharmaceutical agents. Accordingly, the long term objectives of the author's research program are to discover and design new chemotherapeutic agents based on plant-derived compound leads by using a medicinal chemistry approach, which is a combination of chemistry and biology. Different examples of promising bioactive natural products and their synthetic analogs, including sesquiterpene lactones, quassinoids, naphthoquinones, phenylquinolo...

  13. Agent-based Algorithm for Spatial Distribution of Objects

    KAUST Repository

    Collier, Nathan

    2012-06-02

    In this paper we present an agent-based algorithm for the spatial distribution of objects. The algorithm is a generalization of the bubble mesh algorithm, initially created for the point insertion stage of the meshing process of the finite element method. The bubble mesh algorithm treats objects in space as bubbles, which repel and attract each other. The dynamics of each bubble are approximated by solving a series of ordinary differential equations. We present numerical results for a meshing application as well as a graph visualization application.

  14. Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

  15. Simulation Techniques and Prosthetic Approach Towards Biologically Efficient Artificial Sense Organs- An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Neogi, Biswarup; Ghosal, Soumya; Mukherjee, Soumyajit; Das, Achintya; Tibarewala, D. N.

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the applications of control theory to prosthetic sense organs including the senses of vision, taste and odor is being presented in this paper. Simulation aspect nowadays has been the centre of research in the field of prosthesis. There have been various successful applications of prosthetic organs, in case of natural biological organs dis-functioning patients. Simulation aspects and control modeling are indispensible for knowing system performance, and to generate an original a...

  16. Biological Modulation of Upper Ocean Physics: Simulating the Biothermal Feedback Effect in Monterey Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-08

    and S. C. Doney (1994), Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer para- meterization, Rev. Geophys., 32(4), 363–403...integrated ocean-atmosphere-biological modeling system. Ourmodel simulations show that a local phytoplankton bloommay impact upper ocean physics in such a way...perturbations in the local surface pressure gradients also arise as a result of the simulated biothermal warming of surface waters. The model evidence

  17. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  18. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  19. Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

    2014-09-01

    Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

  20. LEARNING REPOSITORY ADAPTABILITY IN AN AGENT-BASED UNIVERSITY ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanco Cabukovski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Automated e-Learning Systems (AeLS are fundamental to contemporary educational concepts worldwide.It has become a standard not only in support to the formal curriculum, but containing social platform capabilities, gamification elements and functionalities fostering communities of experts, also for faster knowledge dissemination. Additionally, AeLSs support internal communications and customizable analytics and methodologies to quickly identify learning performance, which in turn can be used as feedback to implement adaptability in tailoring the content management to meet specific individual needs. The volume of fast growing AeLS content of supplement material and exchanged communication combined with the already huge material archived in the university libraries is enormous and needs sophisticated managing through electronic repositories. Such integration of content management systems (CMS present challenges which can be solved optimally with the use of distributed management implemented through agent-based systems. This paper depicts a successful implementation of an Integrated Intelligent Agent Based UniversityInformation System (IABUIS.

  1. Markov chain aggregation for agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Banisch, Sven

    2016-01-01

    This self-contained text develops a Markov chain approach that makes the rigorous analysis of a class of microscopic models that specify the dynamics of complex systems at the individual level possible. It presents a general framework of aggregation in agent-based and related computational models, one which makes use of lumpability and information theory in order to link the micro and macro levels of observation. The starting point is a microscopic Markov chain description of the dynamical process in complete correspondence with the dynamical behavior of the agent-based model (ABM), which is obtained by considering the set of all possible agent configurations as the state space of a huge Markov chain. An explicit formal representation of a resulting “micro-chain” including microscopic transition rates is derived for a class of models by using the random mapping representation of a Markov process. The type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model, which defines the upd...

  2. Modelling of robotic work cells using agent based-approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Monica, Z.; Kost, G.; Hryniewicz, P.

    2016-08-01

    In the case of modern manufacturing systems the requirements, both according the scope and according characteristics of technical procedures are dynamically changing. This results in production system organization inability to keep up with changes in a market demand. Accordingly, there is a need for new design methods, characterized, on the one hand with a high efficiency and on the other with the adequate level of the generated organizational solutions. One of the tools that could be used for this purpose is the concept of agent systems. These systems are the tools of artificial intelligence. They allow assigning to agents the proper domains of procedures and knowledge so that they represent in a self-organizing system of an agent environment, components of a real system. The agent-based system for modelling robotic work cell should be designed taking into consideration many limitations considered with the characteristic of this production unit. It is possible to distinguish some grouped of structural components that constitute such a system. This confirms the structural complexity of a work cell as a specific production system. So it is necessary to develop agents depicting various aspects of the work cell structure. The main groups of agents that are used to model a robotic work cell should at least include next pattern representatives: machine tool agents, auxiliary equipment agents, robots agents, transport equipment agents, organizational agents as well as data and knowledge bases agents. In this way it is possible to create the holarchy of the agent-based system.

  3. Virtual Transgenics: Using a Molecular Biology Simulation to Impact Student Academic Achievement and Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shegog, Ross; Lazarus, Melanie M.; Murray, Nancy G.; Diamond, Pamela M.; Sessions, Nathalie; Zsigmond, Eva

    2012-01-01

    The transgenic mouse model is useful for studying the causes and potential cures for human genetic diseases. Exposing high school biology students to laboratory experience in developing transgenic animal models is logistically prohibitive. Computer-based simulation, however, offers this potential in addition to advantages of fidelity and reach.…

  4. Simulation and Experiment of Extinction or Adaptation of Biological Species after Temperature Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, D.; Arndt, H.

    Can unicellular organisms survive a drastic temperature change, and adapt to it after many generations? In simulations of the Penna model of biological aging, both extinction and adaptation were found for asexual and sexual reproduction as well as for parasex. These model investigations are the basis for the design of evolution experiments with heterotrophic flagellates.

  5. The image simulation arithmetic of the degradating process of porous biologic ceramic in life-form

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Zuo-bing; HUANG Jian-zhong; YAN Yu-hua; LI Shi-pu

    2001-01-01

    @@ It is a complex and difficult task to simulate the degradating process of porous biologic ceramic in life-form by computer. Because the evolvement of crystal' s structure deals with not only the mechanism of many factors, such as crystallography tropism, the reciprocity of wafer, interfacial movement, but also topology geometry mechanism of dimensional padding.

  6. A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

    2013-11-15

    Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second

  7. Reproducible computational biology experiments with SED-ML - The Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waltemath Dagmar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing use of computational simulation experiments to inform modern biological research creates new challenges to annotate, archive, share and reproduce such experiments. The recently published Minimum Information About a Simulation Experiment (MIASE proposes a minimal set of information that should be provided to allow the reproduction of simulation experiments among users and software tools. Results In this article, we present the Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language (SED-ML. SED-ML encodes in a computer-readable exchange format the information required by MIASE to enable reproduction of simulation experiments. It has been developed as a community project and it is defined in a detailed technical specification and additionally provides an XML schema. The version of SED-ML described in this publication is Level 1 Version 1. It covers the description of the most frequent type of simulation experiments in the area, namely time course simulations. SED-ML documents specify which models to use in an experiment, modifications to apply on the models before using them, which simulation procedures to run on each model, what analysis results to output, and how the results should be presented. These descriptions are independent of the underlying model implementation. SED-ML is a software-independent format for encoding the description of simulation experiments; it is not specific to particular simulation tools. Here, we demonstrate that with the growing software support for SED-ML we can effectively exchange executable simulation descriptions. Conclusions With SED-ML, software can exchange simulation experiment descriptions, enabling the validation and reuse of simulation experiments in different tools. Authors of papers reporting simulation experiments can make their simulation protocols available for other scientists to reproduce the results. Because SED-ML is agnostic about exact modeling language(s used

  8. Real-time simulation of biologically realistic stochastic neurons in VLSI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsin; Saighi, Sylvain; Buhry, Laure; Renaud, Sylvie

    2010-09-01

    Neuronal variability has been thought to play an important role in the brain. As the variability mainly comes from the uncertainty in biophysical mechanisms, stochastic neuron models have been proposed for studying how neurons compute with noise. However, most papers are limited to simulating stochastic neurons in a digital computer. The speed and the efficiency are thus limited especially when a large neuronal network is of concern. This brief explores the feasibility of simulating the stochastic behavior of biological neurons in a very large scale integrated (VLSI) system, which implements a programmable and configurable Hodgkin-Huxley model. By simply injecting noise to the VLSI neuron, various stochastic behaviors observed in biological neurons are reproduced realistically in VLSI. The noise-induced variability is further shown to enhance the signal modulation of a neuron. These results point toward the development of analog VLSI systems for exploring the stochastic behaviors of biological neuronal networks in large scale.

  9. Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model: adoption patterns vs. seeding strategies

    CERN Document Server

    Laciana, Carlos E

    2010-01-01

    The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an innovation and (b) social influence from members of the decision-maker's social network. The micro-level adoption dynamics are embedded into an agent-based model that allows exploration of macro-level patterns of technology diffusion throughout systems with different configurations (number and distributions of early adopters, social network topologies). In the present work we carry out many numerical simulations. We find that when the gap between the individual's perception of the options is high, the adoption speed increases if the dispersion of early adopters grows. Another test was based on changing the network topology by means of stochastic connections to a common opinion reference (hub), which resulted in an increment in the adoption speed. Finally, we performed a simula...

  10. Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takuto Sakamoto

    Full Text Available Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level.

  11. An agent-based interaction model for Chinese personal income distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yijiang; Deng, Weibing; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2015-10-01

    The personal income distribution in China was studied by employing the data from China Household Income Projects (CHIP) between 1990 and 2002. It was observed that the low and middle income regions could be described by the log-normal law, while the large income region could be well fitted by the power law. To characterize these empirical findings, a stochastic interactive model with mean-field approach was discussed, and the analytic result shows that the wealth distribution is of the Pareto type. Then we explored the agent-based model on networks, in which the exchange of wealth among agents depends on their connectivity. Numerical results suggest that the wealth of agents would largely rely on their connectivity, and the Pareto index of the simulated wealth distributions is comparable to those of the empirical data. The Pareto behavior of the tails of the empirical wealth distributions is consistent with that of the 'mean-field' model, as well as numerical simulations.

  12. An Exploration into the Uses of Agent-Based Modeling to Improve Quality of Healthcare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanagarajah, Ashok Kay; Lindsay, Peter; Miller, Anne; Parker, David

    Healthcare is a complex adaptive system. This paper discusses, healthcare in the context of complex systems architecture and an agent based modeling framework. The paper demonstrates complications of healthcare system improvement and it's impact on patient safety, economics and workloads. Further an application of safety dynamics model proposed by Cook and Rasmussen4 is explored using a hypothetical simulation of an emergency department. By means of simulation, this paper demonstrates the nonlinear behaviors of a health service unit and its complexities; and how the safety dynamic model may be used to evaluate various aspects of healthcare. Further work is required to apply this concept in a 'real life environment' and its consequence to societal, organizational and operational levels of healthcare.

  13. Multi-agent based controller for islanding operation of active distribution networks with distributed generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cha, Seung-Tae; Wu, Qiuwei; Østergaard, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    are important, and the overall network synchronism must be ensured in the islanded distribution system. In this paper, a multi-agent based controller has been proposed to stabilize the frequency and voltages of an active distribution system after it enters into the islanding operation mode. The modified IEEE 9......-bus system was used to investigate the dynamic and steady state performance of the active distribution system during islanding operation. Case studies have been carried out using the Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) based simulation platform. Case study results show that the proposed multi-agent......The increasing amount of distributed generation (DG) in today’s highly complex restructured power networks gives more options for distribution system operators (DSOs) under contingency conditions. A low voltage distribution network with a large amount of DG can be operated as an islanded system...

  14. Empirical agent-based land market: Integrating adaptive economic behavior in urban land-use models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces an economic agent-based model of an urban housing market. The RHEA (Risks and Hedonics in Empirical Agent-based land market) model captures natural hazard risks and environmental amenities through hedonic analysis, facilitating empirical agent-based land market modeling. RHEA i

  15. StochPy: a comprehensive, user-friendly tool for simulating stochastic biological processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo R Maarleveld

    Full Text Available Single-cell and single-molecule measurements indicate the importance of stochastic phenomena in cell biology. Stochasticity creates spontaneous differences in the copy numbers of key macromolecules and the timing of reaction events between genetically-identical cells. Mathematical models are indispensable for the study of phenotypic stochasticity in cellular decision-making and cell survival. There is a demand for versatile, stochastic modeling environments with extensive, preprogrammed statistics functions and plotting capabilities that hide the mathematics from the novice users and offers low-level programming access to the experienced user. Here we present StochPy (Stochastic modeling in Python, which is a flexible software tool for stochastic simulation in cell biology. It provides various stochastic simulation algorithms, SBML support, analyses of the probability distributions of molecule copy numbers and event waiting times, analyses of stochastic time series, and a range of additional statistical functions and plotting facilities for stochastic simulations. We illustrate the functionality of StochPy with stochastic models of gene expression, cell division, and single-molecule enzyme kinetics. StochPy has been successfully tested against the SBML stochastic test suite, passing all tests. StochPy is a comprehensive software package for stochastic simulation of the molecular control networks of living cells. It allows novice and experienced users to study stochastic phenomena in cell biology. The integration with other Python software makes StochPy both a user-friendly and easily extendible simulation tool.

  16. [The history of development of evolutionary methods in St. Petersburg school of computer simulation in biology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menshutkin, V V; Kazanskiĭ, A B; Levchenko, V F

    2010-01-01

    The history of rise and development of evolutionary methods in Saint Petersburg school of biological modelling is traced and analyzed. Some pioneering works in simulation of ecological and evolutionary processes, performed in St.-Petersburg school became an exemplary ones for many followers in Russia and abroad. The individual-based approach became the crucial point in the history of the school as an adequate instrument for construction of models of biological evolution. This approach is natural for simulation of the evolution of life-history parameters and adaptive processes in populations and communities. In some cases simulated evolutionary process was used for solving a reverse problem, i. e., for estimation of uncertain life-history parameters of population. Evolutionary computations is one more aspect of this approach application in great many fields. The problems and vistas of ecological and evolutionary modelling in general are discussed.

  17. A data integration approach for cell cycle analysis oriented to model simulation in systems biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mosca Ettore

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The cell cycle is one of the biological processes most frequently investigated in systems biology studies and it involves the knowledge of a large number of genes and networks of protein interactions. A deep knowledge of the molecular aspect of this biological process can contribute to making cancer research more accurate and innovative. In this context the mathematical modelling of the cell cycle has a relevant role to quantify the behaviour of each component of the systems. The mathematical modelling of a biological process such as the cell cycle allows a systemic description that helps to highlight some features such as emergent properties which could be hidden when the analysis is performed only from a reductionism point of view. Moreover, in modelling complex systems, a complete annotation of all the components is equally important to understand the interaction mechanism inside the network: for this reason data integration of the model components has high relevance in systems biology studies. Description In this work, we present a resource, the Cell Cycle Database, intended to support systems biology analysis on the Cell Cycle process, based on two organisms, yeast and mammalian. The database integrates information about genes and proteins involved in the cell cycle process, stores complete models of the interaction networks and allows the mathematical simulation over time of the quantitative behaviour of each component. To accomplish this task, we developed, a web interface for browsing information related to cell cycle genes, proteins and mathematical models. In this framework, we have implemented a pipeline which allows users to deal with the mathematical part of the models, in order to solve, using different variables, the ordinary differential equation systems that describe the biological process. Conclusion This integrated system is freely available in order to support systems biology research on the cell cycle and

  18. Multiple Servers - Queue Model for Agent Based Technology in Cache Consistence Maintenance of Mobile Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Shanmugarathinam

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Caching is one of the important techniques in mobile computing. In caching, frequently accessed data is stored in mobile clients to avoid network traffic and improve the performance in mobile computing. In a mobile computing environment, the number of mobile users increases and requests the server for any updation, but most of the time the server is busy and the client has to wait for a long time. The cache consistency maintenance is difficult for both client and the server. This paper is proposes a technique using a queuing system consisting of one or more servers that provide services of some sort to arrive mobile hosts using agent based technology. This services mechanism of a queuing system is specified by the number of servers each server having its own queue, Agent based technology will maintain the cache consistency between the client and the server .This model saves wireless bandwidth, reduces network traffic and reduces the workload on the server. The simulation result was analyzed with previous technique and the proposed model shows significantly better performance than the earlier approach.

  19. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

  20. Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

  1. An Agent Based Intrusion Detection Model for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Reshmi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Intrusion detection has over the last few years, assumed paramount importance within the broad realm of network security, more so in case of wireless mobile ad hoc networks. The inherently vulnerable characteristics of wireless mobile ad hoc networks make them susceptible to attacks in-spite of some security measures, and it may be too late before any counter action can take effect. As such, there is a need to complement traditional security mechanisms with efficient intrusion detection and response systems. This paper proposes an agent-based model to address the aspect of intrusion detection in cluster based mobile wireless ad hoc network environment. The model comprises of a set of static and mobile agents, which are used to detect intrusions, respond to intrusions, and distribute selected and aggregated intrusion information to all other nodes in the network in an intelligent manner. The model is simulated to test its operation effectiveness by considering the performance parameters such as, detection rate, false positives, agent overheads, and intrusion information distribution time. Agent based approach facilitates flexible and adaptable security services. Also, it supports component based software engineering components such as maintainability, reachability, reusability, adaptability, flexibility, and customization.

  2. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Clemente, Riccardo; Pietronero, Luciano

    2012-07-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  3. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    CERN Document Server

    Di Clemente, Riccardo; 10.1038/srep00532

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  4. Mobile Agent Based Framework for Integrating Digital Library System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Few of the current approaches to achieve the integration of digital library system have considered the influence of network factors on quality of service for the integration system of digital libraries. For this reason, a mobile agent based framework for integrating digital library system is proposed. Based on this framework, a prototype system is implemented and the key technique for it are described. Compared with the current approaches, using mobile agent technique to achieve the integration of digital library system can not only avoid transmitting a lot of data on the network, lower the dependence on network bandwidth for the system, but also improve the quality of service for the integration system of digital libraries in intermitted or unreliable network connection settings.

  5. System-Awareness for Agent-based Power System Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Saleem, Arshad; Lind, Morten

    2010-01-01

    Operational intelligence in electric power systems is focused in a small number of control rooms that coordinate their actions. A clear division of responsibility and a command hierarchy organize system operation. With multi-agent based control systems, this control paradigm may be shifted...... to a more decentralized openaccess collaboration control paradigm. This shift cannot happen at once, but must fit also with current operation principles. In order to establish a scalable and transparent system control architecture, organizing principles have to be identified that allow for a smooth...... transition. This paper presents a concept for the representation and organization of control- and resource-allocation, enabling computational reasoning and system awareness. The principles are discussed with respect to a recently proposed Subgrid operation concept....

  6. A Formal Approach for Agent Based Large Concurrent Intelligent Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhary, Ankit

    2011-01-01

    Large Intelligent Systems are so complex these days that an urgent need for designing such systems in best available way is evolving. Modeling is the useful technique to show a complex real world system into the form of abstraction, so that analysis and implementation of the intelligent system become easy and is useful in gathering the prior knowledge of system that is not possible to experiment with the real world complex systems. This paper discusses a formal approach of agent-based large systems modeling for intelligent systems, which describes design level precautions, challenges and techniques using autonomous agents, as its fundamental modeling abstraction. We are discussing Ad-Hoc Network System as a case study in which we are using mobile agents where nodes are free to relocate, as they form an Intelligent Systems. The designing is very critical in this scenario and it can reduce the whole cost, time duration and risk involved in the project.

  7. Agent Based Control of Electric Power Systems with Distributed Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saleem, Arshad

    . The methodology consists of suggestions for redesign of control architecture, a prototype for a software platform which facilitates implementation of multiagent control and results from case studies of specic scenarios. The work also contributes to agent based control with an approach of model based agents....... This thesis focuses on making a systematic evaluation of using intelligent software agent technology for control of electric power systems with high penetration of distributed generation. The thesis is based upon a requirement driven approach. It starts with investigating new trends and challenges in Electric...... agents. It suggests a multiagent based exible control architecture (subgrid control) suitable for the implementation of the innovative control concepts. This subgrid control architecture is tested on a novel distributed software platform which has been developed to design, test and evaluate distributed...

  8. Autonomous Traffic Control System Using Agent Based Technology

    CERN Document Server

    M, Venkatesh; V, Srinivas

    2011-01-01

    The way of analyzing, designing and building of real-time projects has been changed due to the rapid growth of internet, mobile technologies and intelligent applications. Most of these applications are intelligent, tiny and distributed components called as agent. Agent works like it takes the input from numerous real-time sources and gives back the real-time response. In this paper how these agents can be implemented in vehicle traffic management especially in large cities and identifying various challenges when there is a rapid growth of population and vehicles. In this paper our proposal gives a solution for using autonomous or agent based technology. These autonomous or intelligent agents have the capability to observe, act and learn from their past experience. This system uses the knowledge flow of precedent signal or data to identify the incoming flow of forthcoming signal. Our architecture involves the video analysis and exploration using some Intelligence learning algorithm to estimate and identify the...

  9. Building Distributed Web GIS: A Mobile-Agent Based Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The diversity of GISs and the wide-spread availability of WWWhave l e d to an increasing amount of research on integrating a variety of heterogeneous and autonomous GISs in a cooperative environment to construct a new generation o f GIS characterizing in open architecture, distributed computation, interoperabi lity, and extensibility. Our on-going research project MADGI S (Mobile Agent based Distributed Geographic Information System) is reported, in which we pro pose the architecture of MADGIS to meet the requirements of integrating distribu ted GIS applications under Internet environment. We first describe the architect ure of MADGIS, and detailed discussions focusing on the structure of client site , server site and mobile agent in MADGIS. Then we explore key techniques for MAD GIS implementation.

  10. AGENT based structural static and dynamic collaborative optimization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A static and dynamic collaborative optimization mode for complex machine system and itsontology project relationship are put forward, on which an agent-based structural static and dynamiccollaborative optimization system is constructed as two agent colonies: optimization agent colony andfinite element analysis colony. And a two-level solving strategy as well as the necessity and possibilityfor handing with finite element analysis model in multi-level mode is discussed. Furthermore, the coop-eration of all FEA agents for optimal design of complicated structural is studied in detail. Structural stat-ic and dynamic collaborative optimization of hydraulic excavator working equimpent is taken as an ex-ample to show that the system is reliable.

  11. Next frontier in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin

    2015-01-01

    This book focuses on automated negotiations based on multi-agent systems. It is intended for researchers and students in various fields involving autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, such as e-commerce tools, decision-making and negotiation support systems, and collaboration tools. The contents will help them to understand the concept of automated negotiations, negotiation protocols, negotiating agents’ strategies, and the applications of those strategies. In this book, some negotiation protocols focusing on the multiple interdependent issues in negotiations are presented, making it possible to find high-quality solutions for the complex agents’ utility functions. This book is a compilation of the extended versions of the very best papers selected from the many that were presented at the International Workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations.

  12. Simulated weightlessness alters biological characteristics of human breast cancer cell line MCF-7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Airong; Zhang, Wei; Xie, Li; Weng, Yuanyuan; Yang, Pengfei; Wang, Zhe; Hu, Lifang; Xu, Huiyun; Tian, Zongcheng; Shang, Peng

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of the clinostat-simulated microgravity on MCF-7 cells (a breast cancer cell line) biological characteristics. MCF-7 cells were incubated for 24 h in an incubator and then rotated in a clinostat as a model of simulated microgravity for 24, 48 and 72 h, respectively. The effects of the clinostat-simulated microgravity on MCF-7 cells proliferation, invasion, migration, gelatinase production, adhesion, cell cycle, apoptosis and vinculin expression were detected. The results showed that the clinostat-simulated microgravity affected breast cancer cell invasion, migration, adhesion, cell cycle, cell apoptosis and vinculin expression. These results may explore a new field of vision to study tumor metastasis in future.

  13. Simulation and optimization of a coking wastewater biological treatment process by activated sludge models (ASM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaohui; Yang, Yang; Wu, Gaoming; Mao, Juan; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-01

    Applications of activated sludge models (ASM) in simulating industrial biological wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are still difficult due to refractory and complex components in influents as well as diversity in activated sludges. In this study, an ASM3 modeling study was conducted to simulate and optimize a practical coking wastewater treatment plant (CWTP). First, respirometric characterizations of the coking wastewater and CWTP biomasses were conducted to determine the specific kinetic and stoichiometric model parameters for the consecutive aeration-anoxic-aeration (O-A/O) biological process. All ASM3 parameters have been further estimated and calibrated, through cross validation by the model dynamic simulation procedure. Consequently, an ASM3 model was successfully established to accurately simulate the CWTP performances in removing COD and NH4-N. An optimized CWTP operation condition could be proposed reducing the operation cost from 6.2 to 5.5 €/m(3) wastewater. This study is expected to provide a useful reference for mathematic simulations of practical industrial WWTPs.

  14. The use of microsoft excel as a user interface for biological simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tack, G; Roselli, R J; Overholser, K A; Harris, T R

    1995-02-01

    We used Microsoft Excel 4.0 for Windows running on a PC-486 to develop a user interface for two biological simulation models: a lung fluid balance model and a fractal model of the pulmonary circulation. The simulation programs were written in the C programming language, while the user interface was written in the macro language of Excel. The interface builds input data files for the simulation programs and provides a mechanism for displaying relevant information from output files produced from the simulations. Input fields are partially protected so that the user cannot modify certain portions of the spreadsheet. The Excel interface is used to build models from different available components and to select appropriate parameters for these models. The developed interface was also useful for running models in the batch mode. After selecting changes in lung fluid balance parameters, the interface allows users to find new steady state values by automatically running the model and adjusting initial conditions. Several different graphical options allow users to easily investigate the effects of selecting particular models and parameters. Techniques used in developing our user interface can be extended to most biological simulation programs which manipulate input and output data files.

  15. Backward Multiscattering and Transport of Photons in Biological Tissue: Experiment and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Mohamed Abubaker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Optical polarimetry is a mighty tool for study of transparent and translucent inorganic and organic materials. Growing interest in better health and also the quality of the food pointed the investigation of physical properties of biological turbid tissues. Due to the fact that biological tissue is complex random material showing inhomogeneity, anisotropy and nonlinearity in the structure, its rigorous characterization is almost impossible. This complexity also involves an important amount of information. Therefore, the research of polarization states of scattered light is one of emerging novel techniques in biomedical science. The paper deals with the experimental study of degree of polarization and also with simulation of the biological tissue by Monte Carlo method.

  16. A simulation benchmark to evaluate the performance of advanced control techniques in biological wastewater treatment plants

    OpenAIRE

    Sotomayor O.A.Z.; Park S.W.; Garcia C

    2001-01-01

    Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) are complex systems that incorporate a large number of biological, physicochemical and biochemical processes. They are large and nonlinear systems subject to great disturbances in incoming loads. The primary goal of a WWTP is to reduce pollutants and the second goal is disturbance rejection, in order to obtain good effluent quality. Modeling and computer simulations are key tools in the achievement of these two goals. They are essential to describe, predict ...

  17. Stability and biological activity of wild blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium) polyphenols during simulated in vitro gastrointestinal digestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correa-Betanzo, J; Allen-Vercoe, E; McDonald, J; Schroeter, K; Corredig, M; Paliyath, G

    2014-12-15

    Wild blueberries are rich in polyphenols and have several potential health benefits. Understanding the factors that affect the bioaccessibility and bioavailability of polyphenols is important for evaluating their biological significance and efficacy as functional food ingredients. Since the bioavailability of polyphenols such as anthocyanins is generally low, it has been proposed that metabolites resulting during colonic fermentation may be the components that exert health benefits. In this study, an in vitro gastrointestinal model comprising sequential chemostat fermentation steps that simulate digestive conditions in the stomach, small intestine and colon was used to investigate the breakdown of blueberry polyphenols. The catabolic products were isolated and biological effects tested using a normal human colonic epithelial cell line (CRL 1790) and a human colorectal cancer cell line (HT 29). The results showed a high stability of total polyphenols and anthocyanins during simulated gastric digestion step with approximately 93% and 99% of recovery, respectively. Intestinal digestion decreased polyphenol- and anthocyanin- contents by 49% and 15%, respectively, by comparison to the non-digested samples. During chemostat fermentation that simulates colonic digestion, the complex polyphenol mixture was degraded to a limited number of phenolic compounds such as syringic, cinnamic, caffeic, and protocatechuic acids. Only acetylated anthocyanins were detected in low amounts after chemostat fermentation. The catabolites showed lowered antioxidant activity and cell growth inhibition potential. Results suggest that colonic fermentation may alter the biological activity of blueberry polyphenols.

  18. The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

    Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

  19. An agent-based model for queue formation of powered two-wheelers in heterogeneous traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tzu-Chang; Wong, K. I.

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the queue formation of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) in heterogeneous traffic at a signalized intersection. The main novelty is that the proposed interaction rule describing the position choice behavior of PTWs when queuing in heterogeneous traffic can capture the stochastic nature of the decision making process. The interaction rule is formulated as a multinomial logit model, which is calibrated by using a microscopic traffic trajectory dataset obtained from video footage. The ABM is validated against the survey data for the vehicular trajectory patterns, queuing patterns, queue lengths, and discharge rates. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of replicating the observed queue formation process for heterogeneous traffic.

  20. An adaptive scheduling model for a multi-agent based VEPR data collection actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira-Marques, Pedro; Jácome, Jorge; Hilário-Patriarca, José; Cruz-Correia, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    With the purpose of improving the access to departmental legacy information systems, a multi agent based Virtual Electronic Patient Record (VEPR) was deployed at a major Portuguese Hospital. The agent module (MAID) is in charge of identifying new data produced (reports), collecting and making it available through an integrated web interface. The deployed MAID system uses a static interval for checking the existence of new data, however from the gathered data regarding each department data production it is observable a variable rate throughout the day. In order to address this variability an adaptive model was developed and tested in a simulated environment with real data. The model takes in consideration the past report production profiles for determining a variable query frequency in order to reduce the average time to make data available minimizing the number of departmental requests.

  1. An agent-based model to rural-urban migration analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Silveira, J J; Penna, T J P; Silveira, Jaylson J.; Espindola, Aquino L.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomena as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income.

  2. An Agent-Based Approach for Evaluating Basic Design Options of Management Accounting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friederike Wall

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing errors in management accounting systems with respect to organizational performance. In particular, different basic design options of management accounting systems of how to improve the information base by measurements of actual values are analyzed in different organizational contexts. The paper applies an agent-based simulation based on the idea of NK fitness landscapes. The results provide broad, but no universal support for conventional wisdom that lower inaccuracies of accounting information lead to more effective adaptation processes. Furthermore, results indicate that the effectiveness of improving the management accounting system subtly interferes with the complexity of the interactions within the organization and the coordination mode applied

  3. A Transport Model of Mobile Agent Based on Secure Hybrid Encryption

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUNZhixin; CHENZhixian; WANGRuchuan

    2005-01-01

    The solution of security problems of mobile agents is a key issue, which will decide whether mobile agents can be widely used. The paper analyzes main security problems, which currently are confronted with mobile agent systems and existing protection solutions. And then the paper presents a Security Transport model of mobile agents based on a hybrid encryption algorithm (TMSHE).Meanwhile, it expatiates on implementation of the algorithm. The algorithm of TMSHE model mainly consists of two parts, i.e., employing a hybrid encryption algorithm to encrypt mobile agents and using Transport layer security (TLS) to encrypt communication channel. Mobile agents by hybrid encryption move through communication channels, which are encrypted by TLS. The simulation results indicate that the model can protect mobile agents' security effectively, and consequently the security and steadiness of the whole mobile agent system are also improved. The model has succeeded in getting application in a prototypesystem- Intrusion detection system based on mobile agents.

  4. Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

    An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

  5. Agent based model of effects of task allocation strategies in flat organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-09-01

    A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to implement by the management and, despite the apparent injustice, appears to be working in many situations. In our work we present a simple agent based model, constructed to simulate this practice and to analyze conditions under which the overall efficiency of the organization (for example measured by the backlog of unresolved issues) breaks down, due to the cumulative effect of the individual overloads. The model confirms that the strategy mentioned above is, indeed, rational: it leads to better global results than an alternative one, using equal workload distribution among all workers. The presented analyses focus on the behavior of the organizations close to the limit of the maximum total throughput and provide results for the growth of the unprocessed backlog in several situations, as well as suggestions related to avoiding such buildup.

  6. Complexity and Multifractal of Volatility Duration for Agent-Based Financial Dynamics and Real Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun

    2016-11-01

    A random agent-based financial model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets. And an analysis method of detecting duration and intensity relationship in volatility series is introduced, called the volatility duration analysis. Then the auto-correlation analysis suggests that there exists evident volatility clustering feature in absolute volatility durations for the simulation data and the real data. Besides, the Lempel-Ziv complexity analysis is applied to study the complexity of the returns, the corresponding absolute returns and the volatility duration returns, which can reflect the fluctuation behaviors, the volatility behaviors and the volatility duration behaviors. At last, the multifractal phenomena of volatility durations of returns are comparatively studied for Shanghai Composite Index and the proposed model by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis.

  7. An Agent-Based Model of a Hepatic Inflammatory Response to Salmonella: A Computational Study under a Large Set of Experimental Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapes, Stephen K.; Ben-Arieh, David; Wu, Chih-Hang

    2016-01-01

    We present an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate a hepatic inflammatory response (HIR) in a mouse infected by Salmonella that sometimes progressed to problematic proportions, known as “sepsis”. Based on over 200 published studies, this ABM describes interactions among 21 cells or cytokines and incorporates 226 experimental data sets and/or data estimates from those reports to simulate a mouse HIR in silico. Our simulated results reproduced dynamic patterns of HIR reported in the literature. As shown in vivo, our model also demonstrated that sepsis was highly related to the initial Salmonella dose and the presence of components of the adaptive immune system. We determined that high mobility group box-1, C-reactive protein, and the interleukin-10: tumor necrosis factor-α ratio, and CD4+ T cell: CD8+ T cell ratio, all recognized as biomarkers during HIR, significantly correlated with outcomes of HIR. During therapy-directed silico simulations, our results demonstrated that anti-agent intervention impacted the survival rates of septic individuals in a time-dependent manner. By specifying the infected species, source of infection, and site of infection, this ABM enabled us to reproduce the kinetics of several essential indicators during a HIR, observe distinct dynamic patterns that are manifested during HIR, and allowed us to test proposed therapy-directed treatments. Although limitation still exists, this ABM is a step forward because it links underlying biological processes to computational simulation and was validated through a series of comparisons between the simulated results and experimental studies. PMID:27556404

  8. Multi-agent Based Charges subsystem for Supply Chain Logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Rani

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to design charges subsystem using multi agent technology which deals with calculation, accrual and collection of various charges levied at the goods in a supply chain Logistics. Accrual of various charges such as freight, demurrage, and wharfage take place implicitly in the SC system at the various events of different subsystems which is collected and calculated by software agents. An Agent-based modeling is an approach based on the idea that a system is composed of decentralized individual ‘agents’ and that each agent interacts with other agents according to its localized knowledge. Our aim is to design a flexible architecture that can deal with next generation supply chain problems based on a multi-agent architecture. In this article, a multi agent system has been developed to calculate charges levied at various stages on good sheds.. Each entity is modeled as one agent and their coordination lead to control inventories and minimize the total cost of SC by sharing information and forecasting knowledge and using negotiation mechanism.

  9. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  10. Agent-Based Models as “Interested Amateurs”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter George Johnson

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes the use of agent-based models (ABMs as “interested amateurs” in policy making, and uses the example of the SWAP model of soil and water conservation adoption to demonstrate the potential of this approach. Daniel Dennett suggests experts often talk past or misunderstand each other, seek to avoid offending each other or appearing ill-informed and generally err on the side of under-explaining a topic. Dennett suggests that these issues can be overcome by including “interested amateurs” in discussions between experts. In the context of land use policy debates, and policy making more generally, this paper suggests that ABMs have particular characteristics that make them excellent potential “interested amateurs” in discussions between our experts: policy stakeholders. This is demonstrated using the SWAP (Soil and Water Conservation Adoption model, which was used with policy stakeholders in Ethiopia. The model was successful in focussing discussion, inviting criticism, dealing with sensitive topics and drawing out understanding between stakeholders. However, policy stakeholders were still hesitant about using such a tool. This paper reflects on these findings and attempts to plot a way forward for the use of ABMs as “interested amateurs” and, in the process, make clear the differences in approach to other participatory modelling efforts.

  11. Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

    2016-04-01

    A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds.

  12. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  13. Smart Agent Based Mobile Tutoring and Querying System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Sankaranarayanan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available With our busy schedules today and the rising cost of education there is a need to find a convenient and cost effective means of maximizing our educational/training experiences. New trends in the delivery/access of information are becoming more technology based in all areas of society with education being no exception. The ubiquitous use of mobile devices has led to a boom in m-commerce. Mobile devices provide many services in commercial environments such as mobile banking, mobile purchasing, mobile learning, etc. It is therefore fitting that we seek to use mobile devices as a platform in delivering our convenient and cost effective solution. The proposed agent based Mobile tutoring system seeks to provide a student with a rich learning experience that will provide them with the relevant reading material based on their stage of development which allows them to move at their own pace. The system will allow the user to be able to ask certain questions and get explanations as if they were interacting with a human tutor but with the added benefit of being able to do this anytime in any location via their mobile phone.

  14. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  15. Using the Agent-Based Modeling in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The last ten years of the XX century has been the witnesses of the apparition of a new scientific field, which is usually defined as the study of “Complex adaptive systems”. This field, generic named Complexity Sciences, shares its subject, the general proprieties of complex systems across traditional disciplinary boundaries, with cybernetics and general systems theory. But the development of Complexity Sciences approaches is determined by the extensive use of Agent-Based-Models (ABM as a research tool and an emphasis on systems, such as markets, populations or ecologies, which are less integrated or “organized” than the ones, such as companies and economies, intensively studied by the traditional disciplines. For ABM, a complex system is a system of individual agents who have the freedom to act in ways that are not always totally predictable, and whose actions are interconnected such that one agent’s actions changes the context (environment for other agents. These are many examples of such complex systems: the stock market, the human body immune system, a business organization, an institution, a work-team, a family etc.

  16. Agent-based Market Research Learning Environment for New Entrepreneurs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Valencia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the importance of creating alternative mechanisms to generate know-how on potential markets for new entrepreneurs this paper proposes an agent-based learning environment to help them learning market research strategies within new businesses. An instructor agent, serving as a learning assistant within the MAS environment guides new entrepreneurs to identify their most adequate market niche. The integration of MAS-CommonKADS and GAIA methodologies is used along with AUML diagrams in order to design and develop this agentbased learning environment, called MaREMAS. The paper thus describes all the stages concerning MaREMAS construction focusing on the conceptualization, analysis, design, prototype development, and validation. The tests developed in the MaREMAS learning environment were satisfactory, however, it is proposed as future work to provide the system a more robust statistical module that allows a better analysis of the research variables and hence be able to generate more useful suggestions to the entrepreneur.

  17. Integrated methodological frameworks for modelling agent-based advanced supply chain planning systems: A systematic literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Antonio Santa-Eulalia

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic literature review of recent developments in methodological frameworks for the modelling and simulation of agent-based advanced supply chain planning systems.Design/methodology/approach: A systematic literature review is provided to identify, select and make an analysis and a critical summary of all suitable studies in the area. It is organized into two blocks: the first one covers agent-based supply chain planning systems in general terms, while the second one specializes the previous search to identify those works explicitly containing methodological aspects.Findings: Among sixty suitable manuscripts identified in the primary literature search, only seven explicitly considered the methodological aspects. In addition, we noted that, in general, the notion of advanced supply chain planning is not considered unambiguously, that the social and individual aspects of the agent society are not taken into account in a clear manner in several studies and that a significant part of the works are of a theoretical nature, with few real-scale industrial applications. An integrated framework covering all phases of the modelling and simulation process is still lacking in the literature visited.Research limitations/implications: The main research limitations are related to the period covered (last four years, the selected scientific databases, the selected language (i.e. English and the use of only one assessment framework for the descriptive evaluation part.Practical implications: The identification of recent works in the domain and discussion concerning their limitations can help pave the way for new and innovative researches towards a complete methodological framework for agent-based advanced supply chain planning systems.Originality/value: As there are no recent state-of-the-art reviews in the domain of methodological frameworks for agent-based supply chain planning, this paper contributes to

  18. Agent-based model of laser hair removal: A treatment optimization and patient education tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eapen Bell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Tracking of various parameters associated with laser hair removal is tedious and time consuming. The currently available mathematical models are not simple enough for physicians to be used as a treatment optimization and patient education tool. Aim: The aim of the study was to develop a mathematical model for laser hair removal using agent-based modeling and to make a user-friendly simulation environment. Methods: The model was created using NetLogo. The hairs were modeled as agents oscillating between anagen and telogen. The variables were assigned based on published data whenever possible and the various paths the agent could take were coded as conditional statements. The improvement was assessed using an arbitrary index which takes into account the mean diameter and pigmentation along with the number and length of hairs visible above the surface. Few of the commonly encountered scenarios were simulated using the model. Results: The model is made freely available online (http://www.gulfdoctor.net/model/lhr.htm. Limited number of simulations performed indicated that an eight-week gap between laser sessions may be more effective than a four-week gap. Conclusions: The simulation provides a reliable tool for treatment optimization and patient education as obtaining relevant clinical data is slow and labor-intensive. Its visual interface and online availability makes it useful for everyday use.

  19. CystiSim – An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

    2016-01-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities—pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

  20. CystiSim - An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

    2016-12-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities-pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

  1. Modeling of Agile Manufacturing Execution Systems with an Agent-based Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Agile manufacturing execution systems (AMES) are used to help manufacturers optimize shop floor production in an agile way. And the modeling of AMES is the key issue of realizing AMES. This paper presents an agent-based approach to AMES modeling. Firstly, the characteristics of AMES and its requirements on modeling are discussed. Secondly, a comparative analysis of modeling methods is carried out, and AMES modeling using an agent-based approach is put forward. Agent-based modeling method not only inherit ...

  2. Finite element simulation for the mechanical characterization of soft biological materials by atomic force microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, C; Navarro, B; Navajas, D; García-Aznar, J M

    2016-09-01

    The characterization of the mechanical properties of soft materials has been traditionally performed through uniaxial tensile tests. Nevertheless, this method cannot be applied to certain extremely soft materials, such as biological tissues or cells that cannot be properly subjected to these tests. Alternative non-destructive tests have been designed in recent years to determine the mechanical properties of soft biological tissues. One of these techniques is based on the use of atomic force microscopy (AFM) to perform nanoindentation tests. In this work, we investigated the mechanical response of soft biological materials to nanoindentation with spherical indenters using finite element simulations. We studied the responses of three different material constitutive laws (elastic, isotropic hyperelastic and anisotropic hyperelastic) under the same process and analyzed the differences thereof. Whereas linear elastic and isotropic hyperelastic materials can be studied using an axisymmetric simplification, anisotropic hyperelastic materials require three-dimensional analyses. Moreover, we established the limiting sample size required to determine the mechanical properties of soft materials while avoiding boundary effects. Finally, we compared the results obtained by simulation with an estimate obtained from Hertz theory. Hertz theory does not distinguish between the different material constitutive laws, and thus, we proposed corrections to improve the quantitative measurement of specific material properties by nanoindentation experiments.

  3. Intelligent Agent based Flight Search and Booking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floyd Garvey

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The world globalization is widely used, and there are several definitions that may fit this one word. However the reality remains that globalization has impacted and is impacting each individual on this planet. It is defined to be greater movement of people, goods, capital and ideas due to increased economic integration, which in turn is propelled, by increased trade and investment. It is like moving towards living in a borderless world. With the reality of globalization, the travel industry has benefited significantly. It could be said that globalization is benefiting from the flight industry. Regardless of the way one looks at it, more persons are traveling each day and are exploring several places that were distant places on a map. Equally, technology has been growing at an increasingly rapid pace and is being utilized by several persons all over the world. With the combination of globalization and the increase in technology and the frequency in travel there is a need to provide an intelligent application that is capable to meeting the needs of travelers that utilize mobile phones all over. It is a solution that fits in perfectly to a user’s busy lifestyle, offers ease of use and enough intelligence that makes a user’s experience worthwhile. Having recognized this need, the Agent based Mobile Airline Search and Booking System is been developed that is built to work on the Android to perform Airline Search and booking using Biometric. The system also possess agent learning capability to perform the search of Airlines based on some previous search pattern .The development been carried out using JADE-LEAP Agent development kit on Android.

  4. Agent Based Modeling of Human Gut Microbiome Interactions and Perturbations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Shashkova

    Full Text Available Intestinal microbiota plays an important role in the human health. It is involved in the digestion and protects the host against external pathogens. Examination of the intestinal microbiome interactions is required for understanding of the community influence on host health. Studies of the microbiome can provide insight on methods of improving health, including specific clinical procedures for individual microbial community composition modification and microbiota correction by colonizing with new bacterial species or dietary changes.In this work we report an agent-based model of interactions between two bacterial species and between species and the gut. The model is based on reactions describing bacterial fermentation of polysaccharides to acetate and propionate and fermentation of acetate to butyrate. Antibiotic treatment was chosen as disturbance factor and used to investigate stability of the system. System recovery after antibiotic treatment was analyzed as dependence on quantity of feedback interactions inside the community, therapy duration and amount of antibiotics. Bacterial species are known to mutate and acquire resistance to the antibiotics. The ability to mutate was considered to be a stochastic process, under this suggestion ratio of sensitive to resistant bacteria was calculated during antibiotic therapy and recovery.The model confirms a hypothesis of feedbacks mechanisms necessity for providing functionality and stability of the system after disturbance. High fraction of bacterial community was shown to mutate during antibiotic treatment, though sensitive strains could become dominating after recovery. The recovery of sensitive strains is explained by fitness cost of the resistance. The model demonstrates not only quantitative dynamics of bacterial species, but also gives an ability to observe the emergent spatial structure and its alteration, depending on various feedback mechanisms. Visual version of the model shows that spatial

  5. A Novel Framework for Characterizing Exposure-Related Behaviors Using Agent-Based Models Embedded with Needs-Based Artificial Intelligence (CSSSA2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descriptions of where and how individuals spend their time are important for characterizing exposures to chemicals in consumer products and in indoor environments. Herein we create an agent-based model (ABM) that is able to simulate longitudinal patterns in behaviors. By basing o...

  6. Biocorrosion properties of antibacterial Ti-10Cu sintered alloy in several simulated biological solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Cong; Zhang, Erlin

    2015-03-01

    Ti-10Cu sintered alloy has shown strong antibacterial properties against S. aureus and E. coli and good cell biocompatibility, which displays potential application in dental application. The corrosion behaviors of the alloy in five different simulated biological solutions have been investigated by electrochemical technology, surface observation, roughness measurement and immersion test. Five different simulated solutions were chosen to simulate oral condition, oral condition with F(-) ion, human body fluids with different pH values and blood system. It has been shown that Ti-10Cu alloy exhibits high corrosion rate in Saliva pH 3.5 solution and Saliva pH 6.8 + 0.2F solution but low corrosion rate in Hank's, Tyrode's and Saliva pH 6.8 solutions. The corrosion rate of Ti-10Cu alloy was in a order of Hank's, Tyrode's, Saliva pH 6.8, Saliva-pH 3.5 and Saliva pH 6.8 + 0.2F from slow to fast. All results indicated acid and F(-) containing conditions prompt the corrosion reaction of Ti-Cu alloy. It was suggested that the Cu ion release in the biological environments, especially in the acid and F(-) containing condition would lead to high antibacterial properties without any cell toxicity, displaying wide potential application of this alloy.

  7. Computational systems biology in drug discovery and development: methods and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Materi, Wayne; Wishart, David S

    2007-04-01

    Computational systems biology is an emerging field in biological simulation that attempts to model or simulate intra- and intercellular events using data gathered from genomic, proteomic or metabolomic experiments. The need to model complex temporal and spatiotemporal processes at many different scales has led to the emergence of numerous techniques, including systems of differential equations, Petri nets, cellular automata simulators, agent-based models and pi calculus. This review provides a brief summary and an assessment of most of these approaches. It also provides examples of how these methods are being used to facilitate drug discovery and development.

  8. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  9. Combination HIV prevention among MSM in South Africa: results from agent-based modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Brookmeyer

    Full Text Available HIV prevention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of a number of behavioral and biomedical interventions. HIV prevention packages are combinations of interventions and offer potential to significantly increase the effectiveness of any single intervention. Estimates of the effectiveness of prevention packages are important for guiding the development of prevention strategies and for characterizing effect sizes before embarking on large scale trials. Unfortunately, most research to date has focused on testing single interventions rather than HIV prevention packages. Here we report the results from agent-based modeling of the effectiveness of HIV prevention packages for men who have sex with men (MSM in South Africa. We consider packages consisting of four components: antiretroviral therapy for HIV infected persons with CD4 count <350; PrEP for high risk uninfected persons; behavioral interventions to reduce rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI; and campaigns to increase HIV testing. We considered 163 HIV prevention packages corresponding to different intensity levels of the four components. We performed 2252 simulation runs of our agent-based model to evaluate those packages. We found that a four component package consisting of a 15% reduction in the rate of UAI, 50% PrEP coverage of high risk uninfected persons, 50% reduction in persons who never test for HIV, and 50% ART coverage over and above persons already receiving ART at baseline, could prevent 33.9% of infections over 5 years (95% confidence interval, 31.5, 36.3. The package components with the largest incremental prevention effects were UAI reduction and PrEP coverage. The impact of increased HIV testing was magnified in the presence of PrEP. We find that HIV prevention packages that include both behavioral and biomedical components can in combination prevent significant numbers of infections with levels of coverage, acceptance and adherence that are potentially achievable

  10. A task-oriented modular and agent-based collaborative design mechanism for distributed product development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinfei; Chen, Ming; Wang, Lei; Wu, Qidi

    2014-05-01

    The rapid expansion of enterprises makes product collaborative design (PCD) a critical issue under the distributed heterogeneous environment, but as the collaborative task of large-scale network becomes more complicated, neither unified task decomposition and allocation methodology nor Agent-based network management platform can satisfy the increasing demands. In this paper, to meet requirements of PCD for distributed product development, a collaborative design mechanism based on the thought of modularity and the Agent technology is presented. First, the top-down 4-tier process model based on task-oriented modular and Agent is constructed for PCD after analyzing the mapping relationships between requirements and functions in the collaborative design. Second, on basis of sub-task decomposition for PCD based on a mixed method, the mathematic model of task-oriented modular based on multi-objective optimization is established to maximize the module cohesion degree and minimize the module coupling degree, while considering the module executable degree as a restriction. The mathematic model is optimized and simulated by the modified PSO, and the decomposed modules are obtained. Finally, the Agent structure model for collaborative design is put forward, and the optimism matching Agents are selected by using similarity algorithm to implement different task-modules by the integrated reasoning and decision-making mechanism with the behavioral model of collaborative design Agents. With the results of experimental studies for automobile collaborative design, the feasibility and efficiency of this methodology of task-oriented modular and Agent-based collaborative design in the distributed heterogeneous environment are verified. On this basis, an integrative automobile collaborative R&D platform is developed. This research provides an effective platform for automobile manufacturing enterprises to achieve PCD, and helps to promote product numeralization collaborative R&D and

  11. Computer Simulation and Data Analysis in Molecular Biology and Biophysics An Introduction Using R

    CERN Document Server

    Bloomfield, Victor

    2009-01-01

    This book provides an introduction, suitable for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students, to two important aspects of molecular biology and biophysics: computer simulation and data analysis. It introduces tools to enable readers to learn and use fundamental methods for constructing quantitative models of biological mechanisms, both deterministic and with some elements of randomness, including complex reaction equilibria and kinetics, population models, and regulation of metabolism and development; to understand how concepts of probability can help in explaining important features of DNA sequences; and to apply a useful set of statistical methods to analysis of experimental data from spectroscopic, genomic, and proteomic sources. These quantitative tools are implemented using the free, open source software program R. R provides an excellent environment for general numerical and statistical computing and graphics, with capabilities similar to Matlab®. Since R is increasingly used in bioinformat...

  12. Agent-based modelling of shifting cultivation field patterns, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Leisz, S.; Rasmussen, K.;

    2006-01-01

    costs associated with fencing of fields, and are faced with physical constraints. The simulation results are compared with land-cover data obtained from remote sensing. Comparisons are made on patterns as detected visually and using the mean nearest-neighbour ratio. Baseline simulation outputs show high...

  13. Numerical simulation and experiment of optothermal response of biological tissue irradiated by continuous xenon lamp

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meizhen Huang; Yaxing Tong

    2012-01-01

    A finite element method computation model for analyzing optothermal interaction of polychromatic light and biology tissue is proposed and proven by experiment.A continuous xenon lamp is employed as an example.First,the spectral energy distribution of the xenon lamp is measured and found to be equivalent to a series of quasi-chromatic light with different central wavelengths,different energies,and certain bandwidth.Next,according to the reported thermal and optical parameters of porcine skin and porcine liver,the temporal temperature distributions of these tissues irradiated by each quasi-chromatic light are simulated.Then,the thermal effect is superimposed to obtain the whole optothermal temporal temperature distribution.Moreover,the optothermal response experiments of fresh porcine skin and porcine liver tissues irradiated by continuous xenon lamp are carried out.The results of the simulation and experiment are analyzed and compared,and are found to be commendably matched.

  14. Simulation and applications of a novel modified SBR system for biological nutrient removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, W; Timpany, P; Dawson, B

    2001-01-01

    Dynamic simulation and applications of a novel, continuous-fed, constant level modified sequencing batch reactor for biological nutrient removal are presented. The underlying mathematical model and practical applications of the simulation are discussed. Case studies are presented to illustrate the applications as well as the flexibility of the system in meeting different wastewater treatment requirements. Operation experience from full-scale wastewater treatment plant demonstrates the reliability, ease of operation and high efficiency of the system. Average BOD5, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and TSS removals of 97, 81, 88 and 94% are achieved respectively on an annual basis with little operator attention. Consistently high waste activated sludge concentrations are demonstrated, averaging approximately 20,000 mg/L.

  15. Biological Membranes in Extreme Conditions: Simulations of Anionic Archaeal Tetraether Lipid Membranes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Felipe Pineda De Castro

    Full Text Available In contrast to the majority of organisms that have cells bound by di-ester phospholipids, archaeal membranes consist of di- and tetraether phospholipids. Originating from organisms that withstand harsh conditions (e.g., low pH and a wide range of temperatures such membranes have physical properties that make them attractive materials for biological research and biotechnological applications. We developed force-field parameters based on the widely used Generalized Amber Force Field (GAFF to enable the study of anionic tetraether membranes of the model archaean Sulfolobus acidocaldarius by computer simulations. The simulations reveal that the physical properties of these unique membranes depend on the number of cyclopentane rings included in each lipid unit, and on the size of cations that are used to ensure charge neutrality. This suggests that the biophysical properties of Sulfolobus acidocaldarius cells depend not only on the compositions of their membranes but also on the media in which they grow.

  16. Biological Membranes in Extreme Conditions: Simulations of Anionic Archaeal Tetraether Lipid Membranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineda De Castro, Luis Felipe; Dopson, Mark

    2016-01-01

    In contrast to the majority of organisms that have cells bound by di-ester phospholipids, archaeal membranes consist of di- and tetraether phospholipids. Originating from organisms that withstand harsh conditions (e.g., low pH and a wide range of temperatures) such membranes have physical properties that make them attractive materials for biological research and biotechnological applications. We developed force-field parameters based on the widely used Generalized Amber Force Field (GAFF) to enable the study of anionic tetraether membranes of the model archaean Sulfolobus acidocaldarius by computer simulations. The simulations reveal that the physical properties of these unique membranes depend on the number of cyclopentane rings included in each lipid unit, and on the size of cations that are used to ensure charge neutrality. This suggests that the biophysical properties of Sulfolobus acidocaldarius cells depend not only on the compositions of their membranes but also on the media in which they grow. PMID:27167213

  17. A simulation benchmark to evaluate the performance of advanced control techniques in biological wastewater treatment plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sotomayor O.A.Z.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP are complex systems that incorporate a large number of biological, physicochemical and biochemical processes. They are large and nonlinear systems subject to great disturbances in incoming loads. The primary goal of a WWTP is to reduce pollutants and the second goal is disturbance rejection, in order to obtain good effluent quality. Modeling and computer simulations are key tools in the achievement of these two goals. They are essential to describe, predict and control the complicated interactions of the processes. Numerous control techniques (algorithms and control strategies (structures have been suggested to regulate WWTP; however, it is difficult to make a discerning performance evaluation due to the nonuniformity of the simulated plants used. The main objective of this paper is to present a benchmark of an entire biological wastewater treatment plant in order to evaluate, through simulations, different control techniques. This benchmark plays the role of an activated sludge process used for removal of organic matter and nitrogen from domestic effluents. The development of this simulator is based on models widely accepted by the international community and is implemented in Matlab/Simulink (The MathWorks, Inc. platform. The benchmark considers plant layout and the effects of influent characteristics. It also includes a test protocol for analyzing the open and closed-loop responses of the plant. Examples of control applications in the benchmark are implemented employing conventional PI controllers. The following common control strategies are tested: dissolved oxygen (DO concentration-based control, respirometry-based control and nitrate concentration-based control.

  18. Rings and ladders in biology - fast ab initio simulations of polypeptides and DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James P.

    1996-03-01

    Throughout the years, developments of first principles methods have allowed a theoretical investigation of a wide variety of materials from semiconductors to zeolites. However, ab initio methods have not been widespread in the area of large biological systems. Several recent advances in theoretical techniques have prompted us to examine the possibility of simulating large biological systems. Linear scaling methods have been developed to avoid the N^3 computational roadblock due to matrix diagonalization, and a hydrogen-bonding model has been developed to correctly model weak intermolecular interactions within a tight-binding like local orbital framework.(J. Ortega, J. P. Lewis, O. F. Sankey Phys. Rev. B. 50), 10516 (1994); J. P. Lewis and O. F. Sankey, Biophys. J. 69, 1068 (1995). With these developments, a simulation of a dehydrated 10 basepair poly(dG) -- poly(dC) segment of DNA will be described. Results for the electronic structure of this relaxed structure will be discussed. In addition, a simulation of this relaxed structure, involving 1932 steps, was performed to determine the dynamical matrix. The corresponding vibrational spectrum was found and trends will be compared with experimental work.(Work done in collaboration with Otto F. Sankey and Pablo Ordejón) In addition, theoretical results on the energetics, electronic, vibrational and elastic properties of cyclic peptide systems cyclo[(D-Ala-Glu-D-Ala-Gln)_m], where m=1-4, will be presented. Experimentally, these cyclic peptide nanotubes have been shown to be excellent for transporting of ions and glucose across membranes, the attempt to simulate the placement of a dopant into the nanotube structure and the effects on the electronic structure will be discussed.(Work done in collaboration with Otto F. Sankey and Norma H. Pawley)

  19. Molecular dynamics simulations of biological membranes and membrane proteins using enhanced conformational sampling algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Takaharu; Miyashita, Naoyuki; Im, Wonpil; Feig, Michael; Sugita, Yuji

    2016-07-01

    This paper reviews various enhanced conformational sampling methods and explicit/implicit solvent/membrane models, as well as their recent applications to the exploration of the structure and dynamics of membranes and membrane proteins. Molecular dynamics simulations have become an essential tool to investigate biological problems, and their success relies on proper molecular models together with efficient conformational sampling methods. The implicit representation of solvent/membrane environments is reasonable approximation to the explicit all-atom models, considering the balance between computational cost and simulation accuracy. Implicit models can be easily combined with replica-exchange molecular dynamics methods to explore a wider conformational space of a protein. Other molecular models and enhanced conformational sampling methods are also briefly discussed. As application examples, we introduce recent simulation studies of glycophorin A, phospholamban, amyloid precursor protein, and mixed lipid bilayers and discuss the accuracy and efficiency of each simulation model and method. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Membrane Proteins edited by J.C. Gumbart and Sergei Noskov.

  20. SBMLSimulator: A Java Tool for Model Simulation and Parameter Estimation in Systems Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Dörr

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The identification of suitable model parameters for biochemical reactions has been recognized as a quite difficult endeavor. Parameter values from literature or experiments can often not directly be combined in complex reaction systems. Nature-inspired optimization techniques can find appropriate sets of parameters that calibrate a model to experimentally obtained time series data. We present SBMLsimulator, a tool that combines the Systems Biology Simulation Core Library for dynamic simulation of biochemical models with the heuristic optimization framework EvA2. SBMLsimulator provides an intuitive graphical user interface with various options as well as a fully-featured command-line interface for large-scale and script-based model simulation and calibration. In a parameter estimation study based on a published model and artificial data we demonstrate the capability of SBMLsimulator to identify parameters. SBMLsimulator is useful for both, the interactive simulation and exploration of the parameter space and for the large-scale model calibration and estimation of uncertain parameter values.

  1. Biologic

    CERN Document Server

    Kauffman, L H

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we explore the boundary between biology and the study of formal systems (logic). In the end, we arrive at a summary formalism, a chapter in "boundary mathematics" where there are not only containers but also extainers ><, entities open to interaction and distinguishing the space that they are not. The boundary algebra of containers and extainers is to biologic what boolean algebra is to classical logic. We show how this formalism encompasses significant parts of the logic of DNA replication, the Dirac formalism for quantum mechanics, formalisms for protein folding and the basic structure of the Temperley Lieb algebra at the foundations of topological invariants of knots and links.

  2. The role of chromosome missegregation in cancer development: a theoretical approach using agent-based modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Araujo

    Full Text Available Many cancers are aneuploid. However, the precise role that chromosomal instability plays in the development of cancer and in the response of tumours to treatment is still hotly debated. Here, to explore this question from a theoretical standpoint we have developed an agent-based model of tissue homeostasis in which to test the likely effects of whole chromosome mis-segregation during cancer development. In stochastic simulations, chromosome mis-segregation events at cell division lead to the generation of a diverse population of aneuploid clones that over time exhibit hyperplastic growth. Significantly, the course of cancer evolution depends on genetic linkage, as the structure of chromosomes lost or gained through mis-segregation events and the level of genetic instability function in tandem to determine the trajectory of cancer evolution. As a result, simulated cancers differ in their level of genetic stability and in their growth rates. We used this system to investigate the consequences of these differences in tumour heterogeneity for anti-cancer therapies based on surgery and anti-mitotic drugs that selectively target proliferating cells. As expected, simulated treatments induce a transient delay in tumour growth, and reveal a significant difference in the efficacy of different therapy regimes in treating genetically stable and unstable tumours. These data support clinical observations in which a poor prognosis is correlated with a high level of chromosome mis-segregation. However, stochastic simulations run in parallel also exhibit a wide range of behaviours, and the response of individual simulations (equivalent to single tumours to anti-cancer therapy prove extremely variable. The model therefore highlights the difficulties of predicting the outcome of a given anti-cancer treatment, even in cases in which it is possible to determine the genotype of the entire set of cells within the developing tumour.

  3. A simulation method for the study of laser transillumination of biological tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maarek, J M; Jarry, G; de Cosnac, B; Lansiart, A; Bui-Mong-Hung

    1984-01-01

    The Monte-Carlo method is employed to simulate the illumination of a blood slab by a continuous laser. It is assumed that the geometry of the medium is bidimensional and that scattering or absorption takes place only when a photon strikes a red blood cell. The parameters involved in the calculations concern the photons free path lengths between two collisions, the scattering angles and the absorption probability at collision. These parameters are assessed according to experimental or literature data. Fortran programs allow the computation of diffuse and collimated transmittances (Td and Tc, respectively), of transmittance measured with an optic fiber Tf and of reflectance R. The variations of Tc and Tf with blood thickness are in accordance with established laws. Moreover, measured and computed reflectances change with hematocrit ratio in a similar way. This work demonstrates that the Monte-Carlo method is a simple reliable tool which can be used to provide a realistic model of laser penetration in complex biological structures. Moreover, this method will permit investigations in laser tomo-spectrometry by providing a useful simulation of the interaction of ultrashort light pulses with biological media.

  4. Particle-based model to simulate the micromechanics of biological cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Liedekerke, P.; Tijskens, E.; Ramon, H.; Ghysels, P.; Samaey, G.; Roose, D.

    2010-06-01

    This paper is concerned with addressing how biological cells react to mechanical impulse. We propose a particle based model to numerically study the mechanical response of these cells with subcellular detail. The model focuses on a plant cell in which two important features are present: (1) the cell’s interior liquidlike phase inducing hydrodynamic phenomena, and (2) the cell wall, a viscoelastic solid membrane that encloses the protoplast. In this particle modeling framework, the cell fluid is modeled by a standard smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) technique. For the viscoelastic solid phase (cell wall), a discrete element method (DEM) is proposed. The cell wall hydraulic conductivity (permeability) is built in through a constitutive relation in the SPH formulation. Simulations show that the SPH-DEM model is in reasonable agreement with compression experiments on an in vitro cell and with analytical models for the basic dynamical modes of a spherical liquid filled shell. We have performed simulations to explore more complex situations such as relaxation and impact, thereby considering two cell types: a stiff plant type and a soft animal-like type. Their particular behavior (force transmission) as a function of protoplasm and cell wall viscosity is discussed. We also show that the mechanics during and after cell failure can be modeled adequately. This methodology has large flexibility and opens possibilities to quantify problems dealing with the response of biological cells to mechanical impulses, e.g., impact, and the prediction of damage on a (sub)cellular scale.

  5. Potential impacts from biological aerosols on ensembles of continental clouds simulated numerically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. T. J. Phillips

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available An aerosol-cloud modeling framework is described to simulate the activation of ice particles and droplets by biological aerosol particles, such as airborne ice-nucleation active (INA bacteria. It includes the empirical parameterisation of heterogeneous ice nucleation and a semi-prognostic aerosol component, which have been incorporated into a cloud-system resolving model (CSRM with double-moment bulk microphysics. The formation of cloud liquid by soluble material coated on these partially insoluble organic aerosols is represented. It determines their partial removal from deep convective clouds by accretion onto precipitation in the cloud model. This "aerosol-cloud model" is validated for diverse cases of deep convection with contrasting aerosol conditions, against satellite, ground-based and aircraft observations.

    Simulations are performed with the aerosol-cloud model for a month-long period of summertime convective activity over Oklahoma. It includes three cases of continental deep convection simulated previously by Phillips and Donner (2006. Elevated concentrations of insoluble organic aerosol, boosted by a factor of 100 beyond their usual values for this continental region, are found to influence significantly the following quantities: (1 the average numbers and sizes of ice crystals and droplets in the clouds; (2 the horizontal cloud coverage in the free troposphere; (3 precipitation at the ground; and (4 incident solar insolation at the surface. This factor of 100 is plausible for natural fluctuations of the concentration of insoluble organic aerosol, in view of variability of cell concentrations for airborne bacteria seen by Lindemann et al. (1982.

    In nature, such boosting of the insoluble organic aerosol loading could arise from enhanced emissions of biological aerosol particles from a land surface. Surface wetness and solar insolation at the ground are meteorological quantities known to influence rates of growth of

  6. Simulation of a Congress at the Chair of Biology II in Bioengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naranjo, A. V.; Reznichenco, V.; López, N.; Hernández, R.; Bajinay, S.

    2007-11-01

    This work has been developed in the Chair of Biology II, the curricular contents of which correspond to Human Anatomy. This subject is taught in the second semester of the second year of studies in Bioengineering. Our main objective is that the students attending the course may integrate the syllabus contents of Anatomy with those of other subjects in the career. Ever since 1998 we have organized a congress named Congreso Intracátedra de Biología II (Intra Chair Congress on Biology II). This is the last assignment in the semester and is compulsory for regular students of the subject. It consists in simulating a scientific congress with international characteristics. The guidelines for the congress are made known to the students at the beginning of the semester. In groups of up to three members, the students must undertake a work that relates aspects of Anatomy with Bioengineering. Students are expected to investigate on diagnostic and/or therapeutic technology in order to write a paper that must be accepted in advance of the event. The presentation of the work must be made through PowerPoint. The originality of the research work done and the wide range of topics selected are surprising. Problems are tackled from the standpoints both of the various medical fields and of bioengineering despite the fact that they are just students of the second year in Bioengineering.

  7. A computational systems biology software platform for multiscale modeling and simulation: Integrating whole-body physiology, disease biology, and molecular reaction networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eEissing

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Today, in silico studies and trial simulations already complement experimental approaches in pharmaceutical R&D and have become indispensable tools for decision making and communication with regulatory agencies. While biology is multi-scale by nature, project work and software tools usually focus on isolated aspects of drug action, such as pharmacokinetics at the organism scale or pharmacodynamic interaction on the molecular level. We present a modeling and simulation software platform consisting of PK-Sim® and MoBi® capable of building and simulating models that integrate across biological scales. A prototypical multiscale model for the progression of a pancreatic tumor and its response to pharmacotherapy is constructed and virtual patients are treated with a prodrug activated by hepatic metabolization. Tumor growth is driven by signal transduction leading to cell cycle transition and proliferation. Free tumor concentrations of the active metabolite inhibit Raf kinase in the signaling cascade and thereby cell cycle progression. In a virtual clinical study, the individual therapeutic outcome of the chemotherapeutic intervention is simulated for a large population with heterogeneous genomic background. Thereby, the platform allows efficient model building and integration of biological knowledge and prior data from all biological scales. Experimental in vitro model systems can be linked with observations in animal experiments and clinical trials. The interplay between patients, diseases, and drugs and topics with high clinical relevance such as the role of pharmacogenomics, drug-drug or drug-metabolite interactions can be addressed using this mechanistic, insight driven multiscale modeling approach.

  8. A computational systems biology software platform for multiscale modeling and simulation: integrating whole-body physiology, disease biology, and molecular reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eissing, Thomas; Kuepfer, Lars; Becker, Corina; Block, Michael; Coboeken, Katrin; Gaub, Thomas; Goerlitz, Linus; Jaeger, Juergen; Loosen, Roland; Ludewig, Bernd; Meyer, Michaela; Niederalt, Christoph; Sevestre, Michael; Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Solodenko, Juri; Thelen, Kirstin; Telle, Ulrich; Weiss, Wolfgang; Wendl, Thomas; Willmann, Stefan; Lippert, Joerg

    2011-01-01

    Today, in silico studies and trial simulations already complement experimental approaches in pharmaceutical R&D and have become indispensable tools for decision making and communication with regulatory agencies. While biology is multiscale by nature, project work, and software tools usually focus on isolated aspects of drug action, such as pharmacokinetics at the organism scale or pharmacodynamic interaction on the molecular level. We present a modeling and simulation software platform consisting of PK-Sim(®) and MoBi(®) capable of building and simulating models that integrate across biological scales. A prototypical multiscale model for the progression of a pancreatic tumor and its response to pharmacotherapy is constructed and virtual patients are treated with a prodrug activated by hepatic metabolization. Tumor growth is driven by signal transduction leading to cell cycle transition and proliferation. Free tumor concentrations of the active metabolite inhibit Raf kinase in the signaling cascade and thereby cell cycle progression. In a virtual clinical study, the individual therapeutic outcome of the chemotherapeutic intervention is simulated for a large population with heterogeneous genomic background. Thereby, the platform allows efficient model building and integration of biological knowledge and prior data from all biological scales. Experimental in vitro model systems can be linked with observations in animal experiments and clinical trials. The interplay between patients, diseases, and drugs and topics with high clinical relevance such as the role of pharmacogenomics, drug-drug, or drug-metabolite interactions can be addressed using this mechanistic, insight driven multiscale modeling approach.

  9. Study of the attractor structure of an agent-based sociological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

    2011-03-01

    The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is based in the Potts model, and used for describing opinion propagation in a society. It employs an agent-based approach and interaction rules favouring pairs of agreeing agents. It has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections (see for instance the works of A. T. Bernardes and R. N. Costa Filho), but its stationary states are always consensus states. In order to explain more complicated behaviours, we have modified the bounded confidence idea (introduced before in other opinion models, like the Deffuant model), with the introduction of prejudices and biases (we called this modification confidence rules), and have adapted it to the discrete Sznajd model. This generalized Sznajd model is able to reproduce almost all of the previous versions of the Sznajd model, by using appropriate choices of parameters. We solved the attractor structure of the resulting model in a mean-field approach and made Monte Carlo simulations in a Barabási-Albert network. These simulations show great similarities with the mean-field, for the tested cases of 3 and 4 opinions. The dynamical systems approach that we devised allows for a deeper understanding of the potential of the Sznajd model as an opinion propagation model and can be easily extended to other models, like the voter model. Our modification of the bounded confidence rule can also be readily applied to other opinion propagation models.

  10. GENERALIZED LANDSCAPE THEORY: AGENT-BASED APPROACH TO ALLIANCE FORMATIONS IN CIVIL AVIATION INDUSTRY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kyoichi Kijima

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to generalize Landscape theory proposed by R.Axelrod and, then, to apply it to the civil aviation industry for simulating alliance formations in it. Landscape theory provides a well-known agent-based simulation model for analyzing alliance (or coalition) formation process. When a set N of agents or autonomous decision makers is given, the theory assumes that each agent tries to make a coalition in such a way that the resulting alliance minimizes its frustration. The theory is essentially based on two premises. One is that a propensity is symmetric,i.e., the propensity of agent i toward j is exactly the same as that of j toward i for anyagents i and j in N. The other is that the number of alliances is restricted to two, i.e., at any moment N is partitioned into two parties. Though the two basic premises underpin the theory and make the model simple and operational, they do not always reflect alliance formation processes in a realistic way. A generalized Landscape theory that this paper proposes removes them and allows asymmetric propensity and existence of alliances of any number. Since the premises are essential for the model, the generalization requires a drastic reconstruction of the whole idea of the theory. Finally, we analyze a real alliance formation process in the civil aviation industry.This analysis provides interesting insights about the industry as well as some validation of our generalized Landscape theory.

  11. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawel Sobkowicz

    Full Text Available We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions-which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be 'invaded' by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion.

  12. The role of research efficiency in the evolution of scientific productivity and impact: An agent-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Zhi-Qiang; Han, Xiao-Pu; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik

    2016-02-01

    We introduce an agent-based model to investigate the effects of production efficiency (PE) and hot field tracing capability (HFTC) on productivity and impact of scientists embedded in a competitive research environment. Agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of a citation network calibrated by real-world citation datasets. Our Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that differences in individual performance are strongly related to PE, whereas HFTC alone cannot provide sustainable academic careers under intensely competitive conditions. Remarkably, the negative effect of high competition levels on productivity can be buffered by elevated research efficiency if simultaneously HFTC is sufficiently low.

  13. Avoiding the "Condorcet paradox" in stakeholder networks for participatory decision-making: an agent-based approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pira, Michela Le; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions, related to the "Condorcet paradox". An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in avoiding the paradox and finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

  14. Case Study for the Return on Investment of Internet of Things Using Agent-Based Modelling and Data Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Houston

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As technology advances towards new paradigms such as the Internet of Things, there is a desire among business leaders for a reliable method to determine the value of supporting these ventures. Traditional simulation and analysis techniques cannot model the complex systems inherent in fields such as infrastructure asset management, or suffer from a lack of data on which to build a prediction. Agent-based modelling, through an integration with data science, presents an attractive simulation method to capture these underlying complexities and provide a solution. The aim of this work is to investigate this integration as a refined process for answering practical business questions. A specific case study is addressed to assess the return on investment of installing condition monitoring sensors on lift assets in a London Underground station. An agent-based model is developed for this purpose, supported by analysis from historical data. The simulation results demonstrate how returns can be achieved and highlight features induced as a result of stochasticity in the model. Suggestions of future research paths are additionally outlined.

  15. Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-11-01

    We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative

  16. Backscatter and depolarization measurements of aerosolized biological simulants using a chamber lidar system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, David M.; Thrush, Evan P.; Thomas, Michael E.; Santarpia, Josh; Quizon, Jason; Carter, Christopher C.

    2010-04-01

    To ensure agent optical cross sections are well understood from the UV to the LWIR, volume integrated measurements of aerosolized agent material at a few key wavelengths is required to validate existing simulations. Ultimately these simulations will be used to assess the detection performance of various classes of lidar technology spanning the entire range of the optical spectrum. The present work demonstrates an optical measurement architecture based on lidar allowing the measurement of backscatter and depolarization ratio from biological aerosols released in a refereed, 1-m cubic chamber. During 2009, various upgrades have been made to the chamber LIDAR system, which operates at 1.064 μm with sub nanosecond pulses at a 120 Hz repetition rate. The first build of the system demonstrated a sensitivity of aerosolized Bacillus atrophaeus (BG) on the order of 5×105 ppl with 1 GHz InGaAs detectors. To increase the sensitivity and reduce noise, the InGaAs detectors were replaced with larger-area silicon avalanche photodiodes for the second build of the system. In addition, computer controlled step variable neutral density filters are now incorporated to facilitate calibrating the system for absolute back-scatter measurements. Calibrated hard target measurements will be combined with data from the ground truth instruments for cross-section determination of the material aerosolized in the chamber. Measured results are compared to theoretical simulations of cross-sections.

  17. Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-06-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

  18. Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-06-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

  19. Discovery and development of natural product-derived chemotherapeutic agents based on a medicinal chemistry approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kuo-Hsiung

    2010-03-26

    Medicinal plants have long been an excellent source of pharmaceutical agents. Accordingly, the long-term objectives of the author's research program are to discover and design new chemotherapeutic agents based on plant-derived compound leads by using a medicinal chemistry approach, which is a combination of chemistry and biology. Different examples of promising bioactive natural products and their synthetic analogues, including sesquiterpene lactones, quassinoids, naphthoquinones, phenylquinolones, dithiophenediones, neo-tanshinlactone, tylophorine, suksdorfin, DCK, and DCP, will be presented with respect to their discovery and preclinical development as potential clinical trial candidates. Research approaches include bioactivity- or mechanism of action-directed isolation and characterization of active compounds, rational drug design-based modification and analogue synthesis, and structure-activity relationship and mechanism of action studies. Current clinical trial agents discovered by the Natural Products Research Laboratories, University of North Carolina, include bevirimat (dimethyl succinyl betulinic acid), which is now in phase IIb trials for treating AIDS. Bevirimat is also the first in a new class of HIV drug candidates called "maturation inhibitors". In addition, an etoposide analogue, GL-331, progressed to anticancer phase II clinical trials, and the curcumin analogue JC-9 is in phase II clinical trials for treating acne and in development for trials against prostate cancer. The discovery and development of these clinical trial candidates will also be discussed.

  20. Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

    2014-01-01

    Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement. PMID:24830736

  1. Visualization in simulation tools: requirements and a tool specification to support the teaching of dynamic biological processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Katarina M; Haddow, Pauline C

    2011-08-01

    Simulation tools are playing an increasingly important role behind advances in the field of systems biology. However, the current generation of biological science students has either little or no experience with such tools. As such, this educational glitch is limiting both the potential use of such tools as well as the potential for tighter cooperation between the designers and users. Although some simulation tool producers encourage their use in teaching, little attempt has hitherto been made to analyze and discuss their suitability as an educational tool for noncomputing science students. In general, today's simulation tools assume that the user has a stronger mathematical and computing background than that which is found in most biological science curricula, thus making the introduction of such tools a considerable pedagogical challenge. This paper provides an evaluation of the pedagogical attributes of existing simulation tools for cell signal transduction based on Cognitive Load theory. Further, design recommendations for an improved educational simulation tool are provided. The study is based on simulation tools for cell signal transduction. However, the discussions are relevant to a broader biological simulation tool set.

  2. The architectural foundations for agent-based shop floor control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langer, Gilad; Bilberg, Arne

    1998-01-01

    simulation and cell controlenabling technologies. In order to continuethis research effortnew concepts and theories for shop floor control are investigated.This paper reviews the multi-agent concept aimed at investigatingits potential use in shop floor control systems. The paper willalso include a survey...

  3. Agent-Based Target Detection in 3-Dimensional Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    environment are pixel values. As it turns out there is a relationship between the units that AQUIRE uses and the pixel values we have, though the...programming language and developed in Microsoft Development Environment, Version 7.1. Delta 3D includes many easy to use classes to make simulation

  4. Agent-Based Models and Optimal Control in Biology: A Discrete Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    different parts of the human body to cure diseases such as hypertension, cancer, or heart disease. And we need to control microbes for the efficient...dynamics to remain the same, and how we can verify that this is indeed the case. Since we are using the model with a specific control objective in mind ...similar to the approach pioneered by Descartes and his introduction of a coordinate system. In the plane, for instance, a Cartesian coordinate system

  5. Agent based modelling helps in understanding the rules by which fibroblasts support keratinocyte colony formation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Sun

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Autologous keratincoytes are routinely expanded using irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine serum for clinical use. With growing concerns about the safety of these xenobiotic materials, it is desirable to culture keratinocytes in media without animal derived products. An improved understanding of epithelial/mesenchymal interactions could assist in this. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A keratincyte/fibroblast o-culture model was developed by extending an agent-based keratinocyte colony formation model to include the response of keratinocytes to both fibroblasts and serum. The model was validated by comparison of the in virtuo and in vitro multicellular behaviour of keratinocytes and fibroblasts in single and co-culture in Greens medium. To test the robustness of the model, several properties of the fibroblasts were changed to investigate their influence on the multicellular morphogenesis of keratinocyes and fibroblasts. The model was then used to generate hypotheses to explore the interactions of both proliferative and growth arrested fibroblasts with keratinocytes. The key predictions arising from the model which were confirmed by in vitro experiments were that 1 the ratio of fibroblasts to keratinocytes would critically influence keratinocyte colony expansion, 2 this ratio needed to be optimum at the beginning of the co-culture, 3 proliferative fibroblasts would be more effective than irradiated cells in expanding keratinocytes and 4 in the presence of an adequate number of fibroblasts, keratinocyte expansion would be independent of serum. CONCLUSIONS: A closely associated computational and biological approach is a powerful tool for understanding complex biological systems such as the interactions between keratinocytes and fibroblasts. The key outcome of this study is the finding that the early addition of a critical ratio of proliferative fibroblasts can give rapid keratinocyte expansion without the use of irradiated mouse

  6. Polarizable Mean-Field Model of Water for Biological Simulations with Amber and Charmm force fields

    CERN Document Server

    Leontyev, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Although a great number of computational models of water are available today, the majority of current biological simulations are done with simple models, such as TIP3P and SPC, developed almost thirty years ago and only slightly modified since then. The reason is that the non-polarizable force fields that are mostly used to describe proteins and other biological molecules are incompatible with more sophisticated modern polarizable models of water. The issue is electronic polarizability: in liquid state, in protein, and in vacuum the water molecule is polarized differently, and therefore has different properties; thus the only way to describe all these different media with the same model is to use a polarizable water model. However, to be compatible with the force field of the rest of the system, e.g. a protein, the latter should be polarizable as well. Here we describe a novel model of water that is in effect polarizable, and yet compatible with the standard non-polarizable force fields such as AMBER, CHARMM,...

  7. Use of agent-based modelling in emergency management under a range of flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tagg Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Life Safety Model (LSM was developed some 15 years ago, originally for dam break assessments and for informing reservoir evacuation and emergency plans. Alongside other technological developments, the model has evolved into a very useful agent-based tool, with many applications for a range of hazards and receptor behaviour. HR Wallingford became involved in its use in 2006, and is now responsible for its technical development and commercialisation. Over the past 10 years the model has been applied to a range of flood hazards, including coastal surge, river flood, dam failure and tsunami, and has been verified against historical events. Commercial software licences are being used in Canada, Italy, Malaysia and Australia. A core group of LSM users and analysts has been specifying and delivering a programme of model enhancements. These include improvements to traffic behaviour at intersections, new algorithms for sheltering in high-rise buildings, and the addition of monitoring points to allow detailed analysis of vehicle and pedestrian movement. Following user feedback, the ability of LSM to handle large model ‘worlds’ and hydrodynamic meshes has been improved. Recent developments include new documentation, performance enhancements, better logging of run-time events and bug fixes. This paper describes some of the recent developments and summarises some of the case study applications, including dam failure analysis in Japan and mass evacuation simulation in England.

  8. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  9. Extracting Data from Disparate Sources for Agent-Based Disease Spread Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Laskowski

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review and evaluation of real data sources relative to their role and applicability in an agent-based model (ABM simulating respiratory infection spread a large geographic area. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavior and interaction patterns between individual agents. The agent behaviours in the model (movements and interactions are fed by census/demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records, traffic survey data, as well as person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion and the role of data in calibrating and validating ABMs. The data become real-world inputs into susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR disease spread models and their variants, thereby building credible and nonintrusive models to qualitatively model public health interventions at the population level.

  10. An agent-based hydroeconomic model to evaluate water policies in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Gorelick, S.

    2014-12-01

    Modern water systems can be characterized by a complex network of institutional and private actors that represent competing sectors and interests. Identifying solutions to enhance water security in such systems calls for analysis that can adequately account for this level of complexity and interaction. Our work focuses on the development of a hierarchical, multi-agent, hydroeconomic model that attempts to realistically represent complex interactions between hydrologic and multi-faceted human systems. The model is applied to Jordan, one of the most water-poor countries in the world. In recent years, the water crisis in Jordan has escalated due to an ongoing drought and influx of refugees from regional conflicts. We adopt a modular approach in which biophysical modules simulate natural and engineering phenomena, and human modules represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules employ agent-based modeling, in which agents act as autonomous decision makers at the transboundary, state, organizational, and user levels. A systematic nomenclature and conceptual framework is used to characterize model agents and modules. Concepts from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) are adopted to promote clear conceptualization of model classes and process sequencing, establishing a foundation for full deployment of the integrated model in a scalable object-oriented programming environment. Although the framework is applied to the Jordanian water context, it is generalizable to other regional human-natural freshwater supply systems.

  11. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-02-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level.

  12. Agent based Bandwidth Reservation Routing Technique in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishnu Kumar Sharma,

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs, inefficient resource allocation causes heavy losses to the service providers and results in inadequate user proficiency. For improving and automating the quality of service of MANETs, efficient resource allocation techniques are required. In this paper, we propose an agent based bandwidth reservation technique for MANET. The mobile agent from the source starts forwarding the data packets through the path which has minimum cost, congestion and bandwidth. The status of every node is collected which includes the bottleneck bandwidth field and the intermediate node computes the available bandwidth on the link. At the destination, after updating the new bottleneck bandwidth field, the data packet is feedback to the source. In resource reservation technique, if the available bandwidth is greater than bottleneck bandwidth, then bandwidth reservation for the flow is done. Using rate monitoring and adjustment methodologies, rate control is performed for the congested flows. By simulation results, we show that the resource allocation technique reduces the losses and improves the network performance.

  13. An agent-based model of exposure to human toxocariasis: a multi-country validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanobana, K; Devleesschauwer, B; Polman, K; Speybroeck, N

    2013-07-01

    Seroprevalence data illustrate that human exposure to Toxocara is frequent. Environmental contamination with Toxocara spp. eggs is assumed to be the best indicator of human exposure, but increased risk of exposure has also been associated with many other factors. Reported associations are inconsistent, however, and there is still ambiguity regarding the factors driving the onset of Toxocara antibody positivity. The objective of this work was to assess the validity of our current conceptual understanding of the key processes driving human exposure to Toxocara. We constructed an agent-based model predicting Toxocara antibody positivity (as a measure of exposure) in children. Exposure was assumed to depend on the joint probability of 3 parameters: (1) environmental contamination with Toxocara spp. eggs, (2) larvation of these eggs and (3) the age-related contact with these eggs. This joint probability was linked to processes of acquired humoral immunity, influencing the rate of antibody seroreversion. The results of the simulation were validated against published data from 5 different geographical settings. Using simple rules and a stochastic approach with parameter estimates derived from the respective contexts, plausible serological patterns emerged from the model in nearly all settings. Our approach leads to novel insights in the transmission dynamics of Toxocara.

  14. The Multiscale Systems Immunology project: software for cell-based immunological simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kepler Thomas B

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Computer simulations are of increasing importance in modeling biological phenomena. Their purpose is to predict behavior and guide future experiments. The aim of this project is to model the early immune response to vaccination by an agent based immune response simulation that incorporates realistic biophysics and intracellular dynamics, and which is sufficiently flexible to accurately model the multi-scale nature and complexity of the immune system, while maintaining the high performance critical to scientific computing. Results The Multiscale Systems Immunology (MSI simulation framework is an object-oriented, modular simulation framework written in C++ and Python. The software implements a modular design that allows for flexible configuration of components and initialization of parameters, thus allowing simulations to be run that model processes occurring over different temporal and spatial scales. Conclusion MSI addresses the need for a flexible and high-performing agent based model of the immune system.

  15. Practicality of Agent-Based Modeling of Civil Violence: an Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Thron, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Joshua Epstein (2002) proposed a simple agent-based model to describe the formation and evolution of spontaneous civil violence (such as riots or violent demonstrations). In this paper we study the practical applicability of Epstein's model.

  16. Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kononovicius, A.; Gontis, V.

    2012-02-01

    We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financial markets. The agent based model providing matching macroscopic description serves as a microscopic reasoning of the earlier proposed stochastic model exhibiting power law statistics.

  17. Predictability of Shanghai Stock Market by Agent-based Mix-game Model

    CERN Document Server

    Gou, C

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports the effort of using agent-based mix-game model to predict financial time series. It introduces the prediction methodology by means of mix-game model and gives an example of its application to forecasting Shanghai Index. The results show that this prediction methodology is effective and agent-based mix-game model is a potential good model to predict time series of financial markets.

  18. Rediscovering the Economics of Keynes in an Agent-Based Computational Setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    in commen with what we today call complex dynamic systems, and today we may aply the method of agent-based computational economics to the ideas of Keynes. The presented agent-based Keynesian model demonstrate, as argued by Keynes, that the economy can selforganize without relying on price movement...... as an equilibrating factor. Selforganization does, however, not mean a steady long run equilibrium, but a tendency to generate cycles....

  19. Modeling Co-evolution of Speech and Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bart

    2016-04-01

    Two computer simulations are investigated that model interaction of cultural evolution of language and biological evolution of adaptations to language. Both are agent-based models in which a population of agents imitates each other using realistic vowels. The agents evolve under selective pressure for good imitation. In one model, the evolution of the vocal tract is modeled; in the other, a cognitive mechanism for perceiving speech accurately is modeled. In both cases, biological adaptations to using and learning speech evolve, even though the system of speech sounds itself changes at a more rapid time scale than biological evolution. However, the fact that the available acoustic space is used maximally (a self-organized result of cultural evolution) is constant, and therefore biological evolution does have a stable target. This work shows that when cultural and biological traits are continuous, their co-evolution may lead to cognitive adaptations that are strong enough to detect empirically.

  20. AN AGENT BASED TRANSACTION PROCESSING SCHEME FOR DISCONNECTED MOBILE NODES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.L. Walter Jeyakumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a mobile transaction framework in which mobile users can share data which is stored in the cache of a mobile agent. This mobile agent is a special mobile node which coordinates the sharing process. The proposed framework allows mobile affiliation work groups to be formed dynamically with a mobile agent and mobile hosts. Using short range wireless communication technology, mobile users can simultaneously access the data from the cache of the mobile agent. The data Access Manager module at the mobile agent enforces concurrency control using cache invalidation technique. This model supports disconnected mobile computing allowing mobile agent to move along with the Mobile Hosts. The proposed Transaction frame work has been simulated in Java 2 and performance of this scheme is compared with existing frame works.

  1. Load management through agent based coordination of flexible electricity consumers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Anders; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    Demand Response (DR) offers a cost-effective and carbonfriendly way of performing load balancing. DR describes a change in the electricity consumption of flexible consumers in response to the supply situation. In DR, flexible consumers may perform their own load balancing through load management....... In this paper, we propose an approach to perform such coordination through a Virtual Power Plant (VPP)[1]. We represent flexible electricity consumers as software agents and we solve the coordination problem through multi-objective multi-issue optimization using a mediator-based negotiation mechanism. We...... illustrate how we can coordinate flexible consumers through a VPP in response to external events simulating the need for load balancing services....

  2. New Trends in Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin; Fatima, Shaheen; Matsuo, Tokuro

    2012-01-01

    Complex Automated Negotiations represent an important, emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. Automated negotiations can be complex, since there are a lot of factors that characterize such negotiations. These factors include the number of issues, dependencies between these issues,  representation of utilities, the negotiation protocol, the number of parties in the negotiation (bilateral or multi-party), time constraints, etc. Software agents can support automation or simulation of such complex negotiations on the behalf of their owners, and can provide them with efficient bargaining strategies. To realize such a complex automated negotiation, we have to incorporate advanced Artificial Intelligence technologies includes search, CSP, graphical utility models, Bayes nets, auctions, utility graphs, predicting and learning methods. Applications could include e-commerce tools, decision-making support tools, negotiation support tools, collaboration tools, etc. This book aims to pro...

  3. Agent-based modeling of oxygen-responsive transcription factors in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Bai

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the presence of oxygen (O2 the model bacterium Escherichia coli is able to conserve energy by aerobic respiration. Two major terminal oxidases are involved in this process - Cyo has a relatively low affinity for O2 but is able to pump protons and hence is energetically efficient; Cyd has a high affinity for O2 but does not pump protons. When E. coli encounters environments with different O2 availabilities, the expression of the genes encoding the alternative terminal oxidases, the cydAB and cyoABCDE operons, are regulated by two O2-responsive transcription factors, ArcA (an indirect O2 sensor and FNR (a direct O2 sensor. It has been suggested that O2-consumption by the terminal oxidases located at the cytoplasmic membrane significantly affects the activities of ArcA and FNR in the bacterial nucleoid. In this study, an agent-based modeling approach has been taken to spatially simulate the uptake and consumption of O2 by E. coli and the consequent modulation of ArcA and FNR activities based on experimental data obtained from highly controlled chemostat cultures. The molecules of O2, transcription factors and terminal oxidases are treated as individual agents and their behaviors and interactions are imitated in a simulated 3-D E. coli cell. The model implies that there are two barriers that dampen the response of FNR to O2, i.e. consumption of O2 at the membrane by the terminal oxidases and reaction of O2 with cytoplasmic FNR. Analysis of FNR variants suggested that the monomer-dimer transition is the key step in FNR-mediated repression of gene expression.

  4. Biological effects of simulated microgravity on human umbilical vein endothelial cell line HUVEC-C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming; Cheng, Zhenlong; Liang, Shujian; Sun, Yeqing

    Microgravity has been reported to have multiple influences on human cells. To investigate the biological effects of simulated microgravity on human endothelial cells, human umbilical vein endothelial cell HUVEC-C was treated with microgravity for 24 hours and restored at 1 g gravity for extra 24 hours (group 1) and 48 hours and restored for 24 hours (group 2). Microgravity was simulated by using a two-dimensionally rotating clinostat, set on 30 rpm. As controls, cells were cultured paralleled at 1 g gravity. Two groups of treated cells and control cells were harvested at 0, 12, 24, 48 and 72 (for group 2 and control only) hours for proliferation, cell cycles, apoptosis, proteome and microarray analysis. The influences of microgravity on cell proliferation were controversial in previous reports, and in our experiment, inhibitory effect was observed at 12 hour, and cell number of the treatment groups presented 9.26% decrease compared with that of control. Cell cycle distribution was analyzed using flow cytometry. The G2/M cell cycle arrest also occurred at 12 hour in both treatment groups, the cell rates at G2/M phase were 24% higher than in control. Effect of simulated microgravity on cell apoptosis was observed only after 48-hour-treatment, resulted in percentage of apoptotic cells increased by 53-67% compared with control. After cells returned to normal conditions for 24 hours, levels of cell proliferation, cell cycle and cell apoptosis in treatment groups were comparable to control. In order to investigate the molecular mechanism, we analyzed the treated cells at proteomic and transcriptomic levels respectively. Two-dimensional electrophoresis showed that after 24- hour-restoration under normal conditions, 189 proteins in control group disappeared and 187 new proteins presented in group 1; 469 proteins disappeared and 291 new proteins presented in group 2. By using microarray, we found that expression levels of 56 genes were up-regulated and 45 down-regulated in

  5. Incorporating GIS data into an agent-based model to support planning policy making for the development of creative industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Helin; Silva, Elisabete A.; Wang, Qian

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents an extension to the agent-based model "Creative Industries Development-Urban Spatial Structure Transformation" by incorporating GIS data. Three agent classes, creative firms, creative workers and urban government, are considered in the model, and the spatial environment represents a set of GIS data layers (i.e. road network, key housing areas, land use). With the goal to facilitate urban policy makers to draw up policies locally and optimise the land use assignment in order to support the development of creative industries, the improved model exhibited its capacity to assist the policy makers conducting experiments and simulating different policy scenarios to see the corresponding dynamics of the spatial distributions of creative firms and creative workers across time within a city/district. The spatiotemporal graphs and maps record the simulation results and can be used as a reference by the policy makers to adjust land use plans adaptively at different stages of the creative industries' development process.

  6. Phenotypic transition maps of 3D breast acini obtained by imaging-guided agent-based modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Jonathan; Enderling, Heiko; Becker-Weimann, Sabine; Pham, Christopher; Polyzos, Aris; Chen, Chen-Yi; Costes, Sylvain V

    2011-02-18

    We introduce an agent-based model of epithelial cell morphogenesis to explore the complex interplay between apoptosis, proliferation, and polarization. By varying the activity levels of these mechanisms we derived phenotypic transition maps of normal and aberrant morphogenesis. These maps identify homeostatic ranges and morphologic stability conditions. The agent-based model was parameterized and validated using novel high-content image analysis of mammary acini morphogenesis in vitro with focus on time-dependent cell densities, proliferation and death rates, as well as acini morphologies. Model simulations reveal apoptosis being necessary and sufficient for initiating lumen formation, but cell polarization being the pivotal mechanism for maintaining physiological epithelium morphology and acini sphericity. Furthermore, simulations highlight that acinus growth arrest in normal acini can be achieved by controlling the fraction of proliferating cells. Interestingly, our simulations reveal a synergism between polarization and apoptosis in enhancing growth arrest. After validating the model with experimental data from a normal human breast line (MCF10A), the system was challenged to predict the growth of MCF10A where AKT-1 was overexpressed, leading to reduced apoptosis. As previously reported, this led to non growth-arrested acini, with very large sizes and partially filled lumen. However, surprisingly, image analysis revealed a much lower nuclear density than observed for normal acini. The growth kinetics indicates that these acini grew faster than the cells comprising it. The in silico model could not replicate this behavior, contradicting the classic paradigm that ductal carcinoma in situ is only the result of high proliferation and low apoptosis. Our simulations suggest that overexpression of AKT-1 must also perturb cell-cell and cell-ECM communication, reminding us that extracellular context can dictate cellular behavior.

  7. Simulations on the Teaching of Molecular Biology: Experience’s Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.L.S. Silva

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The comprehension of techniques used in Molecular Biology neither always is easy.Therefore, the objective of this work was to apply simulations in Molecular Biology for graduating students of a Pharmacy course froma private educational institution, to allow them to practice the apparent difficult protocols. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three groups of students (50 each were evaluated. Two of them were submitted to different simulatory activities,such as: a visiting the virtual laboratory of Utah University (USA to understand gel electrophoresis and polymerasechain reaction (PCR techniques, b extracting DNA from oral mucosa by means of a homemade protocol, c investigating simulatory paternity tests, d proposing their own microarrays by painting them on paper and then interpreted the results according to the colors, e designing primers (small fragments of DNA to PCR with the free software Primer3 and testing them in silico PCR. The third group of students was only submitted to oral theoretical classes about all these themes. The progress of the understanding was qualitatively evaluated and compared by the analysis of questionnaires. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The groups submitted to the virtual classes were responsive during the development of activities and had a better performance in the examinations than the group that had only theoretical classes, showing better comprehension about the themes. Their greatest difficult was the limitation in the English language to interact with the websites (they often asked about an alternative site in Portuguese. CONCLUSION: The didactical sequence involving exercises in websites by using freeware and recreational activities in classroom with graduating students of Pharmacy proved to be an effective tool in the learning of some of the techniques in Molecular Biology, mainly when a lab and some equipment are not available to perform practical activities

  8. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  9. The role of research efficiency in the evolution of scientific productivity and impact: An agent-based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    You, Zhi-Qiang [Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Institute of Information Economy and Alibaba Business College, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Han, Xiao-Pu, E-mail: xp@hznu.edu.cn [Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Institute of Information Economy and Alibaba Business College, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Hadzibeganovic, Tarik, E-mail: tarik.hadzibeganovic@gmail.com [Department of Psychology, University of Graz, 8010 Graz (Austria)

    2016-02-22

    We introduce an agent-based model to investigate the effects of production efficiency (PE) and hot field tracing capability (HFTC) on productivity and impact of scientists embedded in a competitive research environment. Agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of a citation network calibrated by real-world citation datasets. Our Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that differences in individual performance are strongly related to PE, whereas HFTC alone cannot provide sustainable academic careers under intensely competitive conditions. Remarkably, the negative effect of high competition levels on productivity can be buffered by elevated research efficiency if simultaneously HFTC is sufficiently low. - Highlights: • We study the role of production efficiency (PE) and research topic selectivity in the evolution of performance in academia. • In our model, agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of an artificial citation network. • Our agent-based model is calibrated by using datasets from the APS journals and the arxiv.org online preprint repository. • Individual performance is strongly affected by PE, whereas topic selectivity cannot significantly enhance academic success. • With even minimal reductions of research efficiency gaps, fairly profound boosts of scientific careers can be achieved.

  10. Simulated influence of postweaning production system on performance of different biological types of cattle: III. Biological efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C B; Bennett, G L; Keele, J W

    1995-03-01

    Methods were developed and incorporated into a previously published computer model to predict ME intake and calculate biological efficiencies in terms of grams of empty BW (EBW) and fat-free matter (FFM) gained/megacalorie of ME consumed from weaning to slaughter. Efficiencies were calculated for steers from F1 crosses of 16 sire breeds (Hereford, Angus, Jersey, South Devon, Limousin, Simmental, Charolais, Red Poll, Brown Swiss, Gelbvieh, Maine Anjou, Chianina, Brahman, Sahiwal, Pinzgauer, and Tarentaise) mated to Hereford and Angus dams, grown under nine backgrounding systems, finished at either a low (1.0 kg) or high (1.36 kg) ADG, and slaughtered at 300 kg carcass weight, small or greater degree of marbling, and 28% carcass fat. Backgrounding systems were high ADG (.9 kg) for 111, 167, or 222 d, medium ADG (.5 kg) for 200, 300, or 400 d, and low ADG (.25 kg) for 300 or 400 d, and 0 d backgrounding. The high ADG finishing system was more biologically efficient than the low ADG finishing system, and generally backgrounding systems were less biologically efficient than direct finishing after weaning (0 d backgrounding). Large-framed breeds were more efficient at the constant carcass weight and carcass fatness end point, and breeds that achieved the marbling end point at low levels of carcass fatness were more efficient at this end point. Some small-framed breeds gained EBW more efficiently but gained FFM less efficiently than some of the large-framed breeds. Variation in efficiency between genotypes was greatest with 0 d backgrounding and decreased in the other backgrounding systems.

  11. Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

    2016-08-01

    Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage.

  12. How molecular should your molecular model be? On the level of molecular detail required to simulate biological networks in systems and synthetic biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonze, Didier; Abou-Jaoudé, Wassim; Ouattara, Djomangan Adama; Halloy, José

    2011-01-01

    The recent advance of genetic studies and the rapid accumulation of molecular data, together with the increasing performance of computers, led researchers to design more and more detailed mathematical models of biological systems. Many modeling approaches rely on ordinary differential equations (ODE) which are based on standard enzyme kinetics. Michaelis-Menten and Hill functions are indeed commonly used in dynamical models in systems and synthetic biology because they provide the necessary nonlinearity to make the dynamics nontrivial (i.e., limit-cycle oscillations or multistability). For most of the systems modeled, the actual molecular mechanism is unknown, and the enzyme equations should be regarded as phenomenological. In this chapter, we discuss the validity and accuracy of these approximations. In particular, we focus on the validity of the Michaelis-Menten function for open systems and on the use of Hill kinetics to describe transcription rates of regulated genes. Our discussion is illustrated by numerical simulations of prototype systems, including the Repressilator (a genetic oscillator) and the Toggle Switch model (a bistable system). We systematically compare the results obtained with the compact version (based on Michaelis-Menten and Hill functions) with its corresponding developed versions (based on "elementary" reaction steps and mass action laws). We also discuss the use of compact approaches to perform stochastic simulations (Gillespie algorithm). On the basis of these results, we argue that using compact models is suitable to model qualitatively biological systems.

  13. First Steps in Computational Systems Biology: A Practical Session in Metabolic Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Palomares, Armando; Sanchez-Jimenez, Francisca; Medina, Miguel Angel

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive understanding of biological functions requires new systemic perspectives, such as those provided by systems biology. Systems biology approaches are hypothesis-driven and involve iterative rounds of model building, prediction, experimentation, model refinement, and development. Developments in computer science are allowing for ever…

  14. Implementing an Agent Based Artificial Stock Market Model in JADE – An Illustration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PN Kumar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Agent-based approach to economic and financial analysis is a suitable research methodolgy for developing and understanding the complex patterns and phenomena that are observed in economic systems. In agent-based financial market models, prices can be endogenously formed by the system itself as the result of interaction of market participants. By using agents for the study, heterogeneous, boundedly rational, and adaptive behaviour of market participants can be analysed and its impact assessed. The collective behaviour of such groups is determined by the interaction of individual behaviours distributed across the group. This being the scenario prevailing in stock markets, agent based models are suitable for the study. Through this paper, we have attempted to illustrate a detailed implementation of multi agents in an artificial stock market invoking the agent-based methodology on Java Agent Development (JADE environment, a platform to develop multi-agent systems. The Extended Glosten and Milgrom Model, an agent based artificial stock market model, has been chosen to depict the multi-agent environment model in JADE.

  15. The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

  16. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  17. Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

    2017-01-01

    Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying

  18. FOREWORD: Third Nordic Symposium on Computer Simulation in Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaski, K.; Salomaa, M.

    1990-01-01

    These are Proceedings of the Third Nordic Symposium on Computer Simulation in Physics, Chemistry, Biology, and Mathematics, held August 25-26, 1989, at Lahti (Finland). The Symposium belongs to an annual series of Meetings, the first one of which was arranged in 1987 at Lund (Sweden) and the second one in 1988 at Kolle-Kolle near Copenhagen (Denmark). Although these Symposia have thus far been essentially Nordic events, their international character has increased significantly; the trend is vividly reflected through contributions in the present Topical Issue. The interdisciplinary nature of Computational Science is central to the activity; this fundamental aspect is also responsible, in an essential way, for its rapidly increasing impact. Crucially important to a wide spectrum of superficially disparate fields is the common need for extensive - and often quite demanding - computational modelling. For such theoretical models, no closed-form (analytical) solutions are available or they would be extremely difficult to find; hence one must rather resort to the Art of performing computational investigations. Among the unifying features in the computational research are the methods of simulation employed; methods which frequently are quite closely related with each other even for faculties of science that are quite unrelated. Computer simulation in Natural Sciences is presently apprehended as a discipline on its own right, occupying a broad region somewhere between the experimental and theoretical methods, but also partially overlapping with and complementing them. - Whichever its proper definition may be, the computational approach serves as a novel and an extremely versatile tool with which one can equally well perform "pure" experimental modelling and conduct "computational theory". Computational studies that have earlier been made possible only through supercomputers have opened unexpected, as well as exciting, novel frontiers equally in mathematics (e.g., fractals

  19. Mapping Cyclists’ Experiences and Agent-Based Modelling of Their Wayfinding Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snizek, Bernhard

    . The model was implemented in rePAST, a state-of-the-art agent-based modelling toolkit. The behavioural parameter estimates were generated from GPS tracks. A road network was taken from OpenStreetMap and enriched with information about the traffic environment, public register-based source and destination......This dissertation is about modelling cycling transport behaviour. It is partly about urban experiences seen by the cyclist and about modelling, more specifically the agent-based modelling of cyclists' wayfinding behaviour. The dissertation consists of three papers. The first deals...... with the development and application of a method for collecting experiential data via an internet-based questionnaire and statistically relating them to physical features of the city as well as the characteristics of their routes. The other two papers explain methods for building, calibrating and validating an agent-based...

  20. Rediscovering the Economics of Keynes in an Agent-Based Computational Setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use agent-based computational economics to explore the economic thinking of Keynes. Taking his starting point at the macroeconomic level, Keynes argued that economic systems are characterized by fundamental uncertainty — an uncertainty that makes rule-based behavior...... and reliance on monetary magnitudes more optimal to the economic agent than profit — and utility optimization in the traditional sense. Unfortunately, more systematic studies of the properties of such a system were not possible at the time of Keynes. However, the system envisioned by Keynes holds a lot...... of properties in common with what we today call complex dynamic systems, and we may apply the method of agent-based computational economics to his ideas. The presented agent-based Keynesian model demonstrates, as argued by Keynes, that the economy can self-organize without relying on price movement...

  1. An Intelligent Mobile-Agent Based Scalable Network Management Architecture for Large-Scale Enterprise System

    CERN Document Server

    Sharma, A K; Singh, Vijay

    2012-01-01

    Several Mobile Agent based distributed network management models have been proposed in recent times to address the scalability and flexibility problems of centralized (SNMP or CMIP management models) models. Though the use of Mobile Agents to distribute and delegate management tasks comes handy in dealing with the previously stated issues, many of the agent-based management frameworks like initial flat bed models and static mid-level managers employing mobile agents models cannot efficiently meet the demands of current networks which are growing in size and complexity. Moreover, varied technologies, such as SONET, ATM, Ethernet, DWDM etc., present at different layers of the Access, Metro and Core (long haul) sections of the network, have contributed to the complexity in terms of their own framing and protocol structures. Thus, controlling and managing the traffic in these networks is a challenging task. This paper presents an intelligent scalable hierarchical agent based model for the management of large-scal...

  2. A Strategic Initiative in Applied Biological Simulations 01-SI-012 Final Report for FY01 - FY03

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lau, E Y; Venclovas, C; Schwegler, E; Gygi, F; Colvin, M E; Bennion, B J; Barsky, D; Mundy, C; Lightstone, F C; Galli, G; Sawicka, D

    2004-02-16

    The goal of this Strategic Initiative in Applied Computational Biology has been to apply LLNL's expertise in computational simulation to forge a new laboratory core competency in biological simulation. By every measure, this SI has been very successful in this goal. Based on a strong publication record and large number of conference presentations and invited talks, we have built a recognized niche for LLNL in the burgeoning field of computational biology. Further, many of the projects that were previously part of this LDRD are now externally funded based on the research results and expertise developed under this SI. We have created successful collaborations with a number of outside research groups including several joint projects with the new UC Davis/LLNL Comprehensive Cancer Center. In addition to these scientific collaborations, the staff developed on this SI is involved in computational biology program development and advisory roles with other DOE laboratories and DOE Headquarters. Moreover, a number of capabilities and expertise created by this SI are finding use in LLNL programmatic applications. Finally, and most importantly, this SI project has brought to LLNL the human talent on who will be the ensuring the further success of computational biology at this laboratory.

  3. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Ding

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

  4. Process Simulation of Complex Biological Pathways in Physical Reactive Space and Reformulated for Massively Parallel Computing Platforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesan, Narayan; Li, Jie; Sharma, Vishakha; Jiang, Hanyu; Compagnoni, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    Biological systems encompass complexity that far surpasses many artificial systems. Modeling and simulation of large and complex biochemical pathways is a computationally intensive challenge. Traditional tools, such as ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, stochastic master equations, and Gillespie type methods, are all limited either by their modeling fidelity or computational efficiency or both. In this work, we present a scalable computational framework based on modeling biochemical reactions in explicit 3D space, that is suitable for studying the behavior of large and complex biological pathways. The framework is designed to exploit parallelism and scalability offered by commodity massively parallel processors such as the graphics processing units (GPUs) and other parallel computing platforms. The reaction modeling in 3D space is aimed at enhancing the realism of the model compared to traditional modeling tools and framework. We introduce the Parallel Select algorithm that is key to breaking the sequential bottleneck limiting the performance of most other tools designed to study biochemical interactions. The algorithm is designed to be computationally tractable, handle hundreds of interacting chemical species and millions of independent agents by considering all-particle interactions within the system. We also present an implementation of the framework on the popular graphics processing units and apply it to the simulation study of JAK-STAT Signal Transduction Pathway. The computational framework will offer a deeper insight into various biological processes within the cell and help us observe key events as they unfold in space and time. This will advance the current state-of-the-art in simulation study of large scale biological systems and also enable the realistic simulation study of macro-biological cultures, where inter-cellular interactions are prevalent.

  5. Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vygintas Gontis

    Full Text Available We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

  6. Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

    2014-01-01

    We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

  7. Biological responses to disturbance from simulated deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Stefanie; Sweetman, Andrew K.; Smith, Craig R.; Menot, Lenaick; Vink, Annemiek; Trueblood, Dwight; Greinert, Jens; Billett, David S. M.; Arbizu, Pedro Martinez; Radziejewska, Teresa; Singh, Ravail; Ingole, Baban; Stratmann, Tanja; Simon-Lledó, Erik; Durden, Jennifer M.; Clark, Malcolm R.

    2017-01-01

    Commercial-scale mining for polymetallic nodules could have a major impact on the deep-sea environment, but the effects of these mining activities on deep-sea ecosystems are very poorly known. The first commercial test mining for polymetallic nodules was carried out in 1970. Since then a number of small-scale commercial test mining or scientific disturbance studies have been carried out. Here we evaluate changes in faunal densities and diversity of benthic communities measured in response to these 11 simulated or test nodule mining disturbances using meta-analysis techniques. We find that impacts are often severe immediately after mining, with major negative changes in density and diversity of most groups occurring. However, in some cases, the mobile fauna and small-sized fauna experienced less negative impacts over the longer term. At seven sites in the Pacific, multiple surveys assessed recovery in fauna over periods of up to 26 years. Almost all studies show some recovery in faunal density and diversity for meiofauna and mobile megafauna, often within one year. However, very few faunal groups return to baseline or control conditions after two decades. The effects of polymetallic nodule mining are likely to be long term. Our analyses show considerable negative biological effects of seafloor nodule mining, even at the small scale of test mining experiments, although there is variation in sensitivity amongst organisms of different sizes and functional groups, which have important implications for ecosystem responses. Unfortunately, many past studies have limitations that reduce their effectiveness in determining responses. We provide recommendations to improve future mining impact test studies. Further research to assess the effects of test-mining activities will inform ways to improve mining practices and guide effective environmental management of mining activities. PMID:28178346

  8. Mathematical modeling of cancer cell invasion of tissue: biological insight from mathematical analysis and computational simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andasari, Vivi; Gerisch, Alf; Lolas, Georgios; South, Andrew P; Chaplain, Mark A J

    2011-07-01

    The ability of cancer cells to break out of tissue compartments and invade locally gives solid tumours a defining deadly characteristic. One of the first steps of invasion is the remodelling of the surrounding tissue or extracellular matrix (ECM) and a major part of this process is the over-expression of proteolytic enzymes, such as the urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), by the cancer cells to break down ECM proteins. Degradation of the matrix enables the cancer cells to migrate through the tissue and subsequently to spread to secondary sites in the body, a process known as metastasis. In this paper we undertake an analysis of a mathematical model of cancer cell invasion of tissue, or ECM, which focuses on the role of the urokinase plasminogen activation system. The model consists of a system of five reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equations describing the interactions between cancer cells, uPA, uPA inhibitors, plasmin and the host tissue. Cancer cells react chemotactically and haptotactically to the spatio-temporal effects of the uPA system. The results obtained from computational simulations carried out on the model equations produce dynamic heterogeneous spatio-temporal solutions and using linear stability analysis we show that this is caused by a taxis-driven instability of a spatially homogeneous steady-state. Finally we consider the biological implications of the model results, draw parallels with clinical samples and laboratory based models of cancer cell invasion using three-dimensional invasion assay, and go on to discuss future development of the model.

  9. Detection and Tracking Based on a Dynamical Hierarchical Occupancy Map in Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    called pold . The new p(v) is the sum of the new incoming probability and the outgoing probability to the next nodes. Each edge from one node to...Output: Graph G’ For every active vertex v of G’ Copy p(v) in pold (v) For every edge E outgoing Get target node v’ p(v’) = p(v’) + (1...cost of E)* pold (v) p(v) = p(v) – (1/cost of E)* pold (v) 36 values are too small to make a reasonable search process. Therefore, there must be

  10. Social self-organization agent-based simulations and experiments to study emergent social behavior

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    What are the principles that keep our society together? This question is even more difficult to answer than the long-standing question, what are the forces that keep our world together. However, the social challenges of humanity in the 21st century ranging from the financial crises to the impacts of globalization, require us to make fast progress in our understanding of how society works, and how our future can be managed in a resilient and sustainable way. This book can present only a few very first steps towards this ambitious goal. However, based on simple models of social interactions, one can already gain some surprising insights into the social, ``macro-level'' outcomes and dynamics that is implied by individual, ``micro-level'' interactions. Depending on the nature of these interactions, they may imply the spontaneous formation of social conventions or the birth of social cooperation, but also their sudden breakdown. This can end in deadly crowd disasters or tragedies of the commons (such as financial ...

  11. Simulating non-small cell lung cancer with a multiscale agent-based model

    OpenAIRE

    Deisboeck Thomas S; Sagotsky Jonathan; Zhang Le; Wang Zhihui

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is frequently overexpressed in many cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In silico modeling is considered to be an increasingly promising tool to add useful insights into the dynamics of the EGFR signal transduction pathway. However, most of the previous modeling work focused on the molecular or the cellular level only, neglecting the crucial feedback between these scales as well as the interaction with the hete...

  12. UAV Swarm Tactics: An Agent-Based Simulation and Markov Process Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    and secondary objective where a de- feated UAV swarm is equivalent to a destroyed HVT. If we penalize a draw, perhaps analogous to draws in soccer ...Tibshirani, and J. Friedman, The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition ( Springer Series in Statistics...New York: Springer , 2009. [34] D. C. Montgomery and G. C. Runger, Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers. New York: Wiley, 2010. 97 THIS

  13. Agent-Based Simulation and Analysis of a Defensive UAV Swarm Against an Enemy UAV Swarm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    Magazine, 18(1):73–86, 1997. [16] Hiroaki Kitano, editor. RoboCup-97: Robot Soccer World Cup I, volume 1395 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer ...which is a worldwide tournament of robots playing soccer . The objective of RoboCup is “to pro- mote robotics and AI research,” where the artificial...Com- puter Science, pp. 10–20. Springer , 2005. [12] Christian Blum. Swarm Intelligence: Introduction and Applications. Springer , Berlin, 2008. ISBN

  14. A Scaffolding Framework to Support Learning of Emergent Phenomena Using Multi-Agent-Based Simulation Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Satabdi; Sengupta, Pratim; Biswas, Gautam

    2015-01-01

    Students from middle school to college have difficulties in interpreting and understanding complex systems such as ecological phenomena. Researchers have suggested that students experience difficulties in reconciling the relationships between individuals, populations, and species, as well as the interactions between organisms and their environment…

  15. Interbank network and regulation policies : an analysis through agent-based simulations with adaptive learning

    OpenAIRE

    Lucchetti, Alexandre Henrique

    2016-01-01

    Foi usado o modelo baseado em agentes de Barroso (2014) e Lima (2014) para estudar os impactos de uma ampla gama de políticas regulatórias sobre o setor bancário. Esse modelo se baseia em uma versão iterada do modelo de Diamond e Dybvig (1983) e lança mão do esquema de aprendizagem experience-weighted attraction de Camerer e Ho (1999) para modelar o aprendizado adaptativo dos agentes. Dessa forma, conseguimos capturar não somente os impactos diretos da regulação, mas também os que ocorrem atr...

  16. An Agent-Based Model for Navigation Simulation in a Heterogeneous Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanklin, Teresa A.

    2012-01-01

    Complex navigation (e.g. indoor and outdoor environments) can be studied as a system-of-systems problem. The model is made up of disparate systems that can aid a user in navigating from one location to another, utilizing whatever sensor system or information is available. By using intelligent navigation sensors and techniques (e.g. RFID, Wifi,…

  17. Particle Swarm Social Adaptive Model for Multi-Agent Based Insurgency Warfare Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Xiaohui [ORNL; Potok, Thomas E [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    To better understand insurgent activities and asymmetric warfare, a social adaptive model for modeling multiple insurgent groups attacking multiple military and civilian targets is proposed and investigated. This report presents a pilot study using the particle swarm modeling, a widely used non-linear optimal tool to model the emergence of insurgency campaign. The objective of this research is to apply the particle swarm metaphor as a model of insurgent social adaptation for the dynamically changing environment and to provide insight and understanding of insurgency warfare. Our results show that unified leadership, strategic planning, and effective communication between insurgent groups are not the necessary requirements for insurgents to efficiently attain their objective.

  18. The Use of Agent Based Simulation for Cooperative Sensing of the Battlefield

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-12-01

    ChiSquare ...122 128 6 DF 104.84869 232.26793 337.11662 -LogLikelihood 209.6974 ChiSquare <.0001 Prob>ChiSq Lack Of Fit Intercept LAE React InOrg SA... ChiSquare <.0001 0.0027 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 Prob>ChiSq For log odds of 0/1 Parameter Estimates Nominal Logistic Fit for Low TCT Class

  19. UAV swarm tactics: an agent-based simulation and Markov process analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaerther, Uwe

    2013-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The rapid increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in recent decades lead to their potential use as saturation or swarm threats to Allied Forces. One possible counter measure is the design and deployment of a defensive UAV swarm. This thesis identifies a future concept of swarm-versus-swarm UAV combat, focusing on the implications of swarm tactics and identifies important factors for such engagements. This work provides i...

  20. Agent-based model of intermittent renewables: Simulating emerging changes in energy markets in transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Viebahn, P.; Richstein, J.C.; Lechtenböhmer, S.; Nebel, A.

    2012-01-01

    The energy transition is taking shape in the German and, to a lesser extent also its neighbouring electricity markets. We have proposed adaptations to an existing model to represent the increasing shares of intermittent renewables, that may alter the structure of the market and the viability of stra