Detailed Physical Trough Model for NREL's Solar Advisor Model: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, M. J.; Blair, N.; Dobos, A.

2010-10-01

Solar Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software package made available by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Sandia National Laboratory, and the US Department of Energy. SAM contains hourly system performance and economic models for concentrating solar power (CSP) systems, photovoltaic, solar hot-water, and generic fuel-use technologies. Versions of SAM prior to 2010 included only the parabolic trough model based on Excelergy. This model uses top-level empirical performance curves to characterize plant behavior, and thus is limited in predictive capability for new technologies or component configurations. To address this and other functionality challenges, a new trough model; derived from physical first principles was commissioned to supplement the Excelergy-based empirical model. This new 'physical model' approaches the task of characterizing the performance of the whole parabolic trough plant by replacing empirical curve-fit relationships with more detailed calculations where practical. The resulting model matches the annual performance of the SAM empirical model (which has been previously verified with plant data) while maintaining run-times compatible with parametric analysis, adding additional flexibility in modeled system configurations, and providing more detailed performance calculations in the solar field, power block, piping, and storage subsystems.

Validation of PV-RPM Code in the System Advisor Model.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klise, Geoffrey Taylor [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-04-01

This paper describes efforts made by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to validate the SNL developed PV Reliability Performance Model (PV - RPM) algorithm as implemented in the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM). The PV - RPM model is a library of functions that estimates component failure and repair in a photovoltaic system over a desired simulation period. The failure and repair distributions in this paper are probabilistic representations of component failure and repair based on data collected by SNL for a PV power plant operating in Arizona. The validation effort focuses on whether the failure and repair dist ributions used in the SAM implementation result in estimated failures that match the expected failures developed in the proof - of - concept implementation. Results indicate that the SAM implementation of PV - RPM provides the same results as the proof - of - concep t implementation, indicating the algorithms were reproduced successfully.

Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turchi, C. S.; Heath, G. A.

2013-02-01

This report describes a component-based cost model developed for molten-salt power tower solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), using data from several prior studies, including a contracted analysis from WorleyParsons Group, which is included herein as an Appendix. The WorleyParsons' analysis also estimated material composition and mass for the plant to facilitate a life cycle analysis of the molten salt power tower technology. Details of the life cycle assessment have been published elsewhere. The cost model provides a reference plant that interfaces with NREL's System Advisor Model or SAM. The reference plant assumes a nominal 100-MWe (net) power tower running with a nitrate salt heat transfer fluid (HTF). Thermal energy storage is provided by direct storage of the HTF in a two-tank system. The design assumes dry-cooling. The model includes a spreadsheet that interfaces with SAM via the Excel Exchange option in SAM. The spreadsheet allows users to estimate the costs of different-size plants and to take into account changes in commodity prices. This report and the accompanying Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded at https://sam.nrel.gov/cost.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

2013-09-15

Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

Reduction of Perceived Social Distance as an Explanation for Media's Influence on Personal Risk Perceptions: A Test of the Risk Convergence Model

Science.gov (United States)

So, Jiyeon; Nabi, Robin

2013-01-01

The risk convergence model proposes reduction of perceived social distance to a mediated personality as a mechanism through which the mass media can influence audiences' personal risk perceptions. As an initial test of the model, this study examined whether 5 audience variables known to facilitate media effects on personal risk…

Determinants of physical activity promotion by smoking cessation advisors.

Science.gov (United States)

Mas, Sébastien; Bernard, Paquito; Gourlan, Mathieu

2018-05-17

To investigate the cross-sectional association between personal physical activity (PA) level, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) constructs toward PA promotion, and PA promotion behavior among smoking cessation advisors. 149 smoking cessation advisors were invited to complete online questionnaires. Hypotheses were tested using Bayesian path analysis. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control (PBC) of smoking cessation advisors were related to PA promotion intentions; intentions were in turn related to PA promotion behaviors. Advisors' personal PA level was indirectly associated with PA promotion behaviors through PBC and PA promotion intentions. The TPB is a relevant theoretical framework with which to explore determinants of PA promotion behavior among smoking cessation advisors. The PA level of health care professionals may be linked to PA promotion behavior through some TPB constructs. Smoking cessation advisor training should include education on attitude development (e.g., PA benefits on smoking cessation), PBC (e.g., modality of PA prescription) and PA promotion intentions (e.g., goal setting). Smoking cessation advisors should also be encouraged to regularly practice PA in order to improve their PA promotion behaviors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using the acid rain advisor to evaluate compliance strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stallard, G.S.; Anderson, A.A.

1991-01-01

Unlike prior Clean Air Act (CAA) legislation, the most recent amendments will require utilities to reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions for existing operating power station and provides for compliance strategies in which emissions for existing operating power stations and provides for compliance strategies in which emission reductions can be transferred from one unit to another. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), in conjunction with the Department of Energy (DOE), is funding the development of the Coal Quality Expert (CQE), a comprehensive analytical/planning tool to consider the myriad of potential coal purchase decisions now facing the utility, including fuel switching, blending, coal beneficiation, and the installation of retrofit emission controls. The CQE will be built on the foundation of proven, validated computer models to the maximum extent possible, including EPRI's Coal Quality Impact Model (CQIM), a state-of-the-art computer model designed to evaluate cost/performance impacts of fuel switching at existing power plants. In addition, as the CQE development permits, interim computer products will be offered. The first of these products is the Acid Rain Advisor (ARA). The ARA complements the CQIM by providing the ability to rapidly evaluate the system-wide cost and reduction benefits which result from selecting various reduction techniques on various units within the system. Thus, with the ARA, the utility can efficiently combine cost/performance information, view overall system results, and rapidly consider various 'What if' alternatives to ensure that individual unit reduction strategies are consistent with the goals of the utility as a whole. This paper demonstrates the capabilities of the ARA, and by use of a 'sample analysis,' illustrates how a utility might develop and evaluate alternative CAA compliance strategies

Comparison of the students’ satisfaction about the performance of academic advisors before and after the advisor project in Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MASOUMEH DELARAM

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Inappropriate advice interferes with the students’ achievement of educational and professional goals and they may fail to use proper resources for their educational needs. The present study was carried out to compare the students’ satisfaction about the performance of academic advisors before and after the advisor project in Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences. Methods: This longitudinal study was carried out using census report on 244 students in different courses at Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences in two stages at the first semester of 2010-2011 and first semester of 2011-2012. To collect the data, we used a self-designed questionnaire including individual and educational information and 10 multiple-choice questions with Likert scale to assess the students’ satisfaction about the advisors’ performance. Data were analyzed in SPSS 14 using paired t-test, qui-square test. P<0.05 was considered significant. Results: Of the ten items of satisfaction, there was only a significant difference in “accessibility to an advisor before and after the advisor project in students of nursing and midwifery school” (p=0.010, and the difference was not significant in other items in these students. No significant difference was found in ten items of satisfaction in students at other schools before and after the advisor project (p=0.010. Conclusion: It seems that the implementation of advisor project could not provide a satisfactory position for students. Adequate supervision of university officials on proper implementation of the advisor project, supporting faculty advisors and strengthening their position can help to improve the process.

TEACHER-ADVISORS: Where There's a Skill There's A Way.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamminen, Armas; And Others

This report discusses a program to present the Teacher Advisement Training Model. This model for training teacher-advisors is based on the assumption that tentative commitment to making school a more rewarding experience for all is the first step in starting an effective program. The approach is to help teachers learn specific skills and methods…

The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

2015-02-01

Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed.

System Advisor Model, SAM 2014.1.14: General Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Neises, Ty [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wagner, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ferguson, Tom [Global Resources, Northbrook, IL (United States); Gilman, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Janzou, Steven [Janzou Consulting, Idaho Springs, CO (United States)

2014-02-01

This document describes the capabilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), Version 2013.9.20, released on September 9, 2013. SAM is a computer model that calculates performance and financial metrics of renewable energy systems. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of photovoltaic, concentrating solar power, solar water heating, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial model can represent financial structures for projects that either buy and sell electricity at retail rates (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (utility). SAM's advanced simulation options facilitate parametric and sensitivity analyses, and statistical analysis capabilities are available for Monte Carlo simulation and weather variability (P50/P90) studies. SAM can also read input variables from Microsoft Excel worksheets. For software developers, the SAM software development kit (SDK) makes it possible to use SAM simulation modules in their applications written in C/C++, C#, Java, Python, and MATLAB. NREL provides both SAM and the SDK as free downloads at http://sam.nrel.gov. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.

The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

Science.gov (United States)

L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

2000-03-15

The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio ( or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure ( or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

The role of farm advisors in multifunctional landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesterager, Jens Peter; Lindegaard, Klaus

2012-01-01

This study investigates the influence of farm advisors on farmers decisions regarding Multifunctional landscape commons, a concept covering environmental and landscape values that benefit the public but which depend on farmers management practices. The influence of advisors is analysed by combining...

ACADEMIC ADVISORS: VALUES EDUCATED LEADERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brizeida Mijares

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the academic advisors’ profile from the attitudes in the learning process view point, being the center of which the need that as an educator, the advisor has to be a leader educated in values. The research was documental, according to the theoretical contributions of Arana and Batista (2006,  Ortega and Minguez (2001 and Denis (2000, among others. It is concluded that an academic advisor in values allows individual and collective trasnformation and an education without values as its center, it is a hollow and useless education.

The process of candidates choose graduate programs: an analysis from the advisor perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nascimento, Ridnal Joao do

2016-01-01

This study aims to identify the criteria used by advisors in the decision-making on whether to accept a candidate for mentoring in a postgraduate strictu sensu program and examines possible relationships between this decision and their scientific production and mentees evasion. In order to meet these goals one seeks to identify and analyze the selection criteria of candidates for the master's and doctorate programs at an institution; in this case, the Energy and Nuclear Research Institute - IPEN. More specifically, one seeks to study similarities and differences between those criteria among the advisors; find out whether there is a correlation between the selection criteria and the advisors characteristics (Profile); identify the selection process used by advisors and point out which are the motivations that lead to evasion according to their point of view. To meet these challenges, as the starting point of the research, a conceptual model was designed in order to form the basis for the preparation of the script for the interviews with open-ended questions as to identify the selection criteria used by a small group of advisors with a predefined profile. From that point, based on the responses obtained in interviews, the survey was expanded to all advisors working in the IPEN Postgraduate program by implementing an online survey using Google Docs app for data collection. These data were then analyzed and reorganized according to an operational model of research that would guide the analysis by structural equation modeling (SEM) by means of the SmartPLS software, in order to identify the presence or absence of correlation between the criteria adopted by the advisors and their academic production and the evasion of their mentees, for that one relied on studies in: Bazerman and Moore (2010); Cohen (1988); Hair Jr. et al (2009); Hansmann and Ringle (2004); Martins (1997); Ringle, C.; Silva and Bido (2014); Sousa (2007); Sousa and Yu (2014); Torres (2014); Yu (2011

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, H.T.

1978-01-01

Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

A study on optimization of hybrid drive train using Advanced Vehicle Simulator (ADVISOR)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Same, Adam; Stipe, Alex; Grossman, David; Park, Jae Wan [Department of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, University of California, Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

2010-10-01

This study investigates the advantages and disadvantages of three hybrid drive train configurations: series, parallel, and ''through-the-ground'' parallel. Power flow simulations are conducted with the MATLAB/Simulink-based software ADVISOR. These simulations are then applied in an application for the UC Davis SAE Formula Hybrid vehicle. ADVISOR performs simulation calculations for vehicle position using a combined backward/forward method. These simulations are used to study how efficiency and agility are affected by the motor, fuel converter, and hybrid configuration. Three different vehicle models are developed to optimize the drive train of a vehicle for three stages of the SAE Formula Hybrid competition: autocross, endurance, and acceleration. Input cycles are created based on rough estimates of track geometry. The output from these ADVISOR simulations is a series of plots of velocity profile and energy storage State of Charge that provide a good estimate of how the Formula Hybrid vehicle will perform on the given course. The most noticeable discrepancy between the input cycle and the actual velocity profile of the vehicle occurs during deceleration. A weighted ranking system is developed to organize the simulation results and to determine the best drive train configuration for the Formula Hybrid vehicle. Results show that the through-the-ground parallel configuration with front-mounted motors achieves an optimal balance of efficiency, simplicity, and cost. ADVISOR is proven to be a useful tool for vehicle power train design for the SAE Formula Hybrid competition. This vehicle model based on ADVISOR simulation is applicable to various studies concerning performance and efficiency of hybrid drive trains. (author)

Agricultural risk management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

2005-01-01

A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Andres Calvache

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

2017-12-01

Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

Senior Enlisted Advisor to the CNGB - The National Guard

Science.gov (United States)

ARNG Readiness Home : Leadership : SEA Senior Enlisted Advisor to the CNGB Command Sergeant Major Christopher Kepner Command Sergeant Major Christopher Kepner currently serves as the Senior Enlisted Advisor include the United States Army Sergeants Major Academy, Senior Enlisted Joint Professional Military

Factors leading to the involvement of Forensic Advisors in the Belgian criminal justice system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitzer, Sonja

2018-04-01

Forensic Advisors at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology in Brussels act as advising body to the magistrate regarding analytical possibilities and the usefulness of trace analysis in a case. Initially, their function was devised to assist in complex murder cases with unknown offender. However, in a previous study, the increasing diversity of the cases they are requested for has been observed (Bitzer et al., in press). In order to deepen our understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, the decision to involve a Forensic Advisor and the factors leading to their involvement were evaluated. The study focused on homicide, robbery and burglary cases with and without requests for a Forensic Advisor between January 2014 and June 2016. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility. Decision tree modelling was carried out in order to identify the factors influencing the request for a Forensic Advisor in the case. The decision to request a Forensic Advisor differs between different types of offences. It also depends on the complexity of the case in terms of the number of traces and objects collected at the crime scene, and the availability of witness reports. Indeed, Forensic Advisors take the role of trace analysis coordinator by providing an overview of all available traces, objects, analyses and results. According to the principal implication factors and the performed case study, the contribution of Forensic Advisors consists mainly in summarising all information and advise on potential additional analyses. This might be explained by a loss of overview of the information and the possibilities regarding trace analysis by the magistrate responsible of the case. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

17 CFR 4.14 - Exemption from registration as a commodity trading advisor.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... a commodity trading advisor. 4.14 Section 4.14 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION COMMODITY POOL OPERATORS AND COMMODITY TRADING ADVISORS General Provisions, Definitions and Exemptions § 4.14 Exemption from registration as a commodity trading advisor. This section is...

Marketing advisors and their role for junior gas producers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maffitt, D.W. [Phoenix Gas Marketing Consultants Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

1997-05-01

The role of marketing advisors in the new deregulated natural gas industry was discussed. These producer-oriented marketing consultants are specialists in providing affordable marketing services to junior gas producers on an `as-needed` basis. The most important service provided by marketing advisors is helping the client identify management problems, analyze such problems and recommend solutions. Accordingly, the marketing advisor should be independent and objective, with no conflict of interests. He/she should be prepared to invest a lot of time and effort in providing the junior producer with a customized diagnosis of its marketing problems. 5 refs., 3 figs.

Marketing advisors and their role for junior gas producers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maffitt, D.W.

1997-01-01

The role of marketing advisors in the new deregulated natural gas industry was discussed. These producer-oriented marketing consultants are specialists in providing affordable marketing services to junior gas producers on an 'as-needed' basis. The most important service provided by marketing advisors is helping the client identify management problems, analyze such problems and recommend solutions. Accordingly, the marketing advisor should be independent and objective, with no conflict of interests. He/she should be prepared to invest a lot of time and effort in providing the junior producer with a customized diagnosis of its marketing problems. 5 refs., 3 figs

Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dai Hongying

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Bandali

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs.

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demographic Trends and Advocacy Experiences of Gay-Straight Alliance Advisors

Science.gov (United States)

Graybill, Emily C.; Varjas, Kris; Meyers, Joel; Dever, Bridget V.; Greenberg, Daphne; Roach, Andrew T.; Morillas, Catalina

2015-01-01

Using an ecological model, the individual-, school-, and sociocultural-level characteristics that affect gay-straight alliance (GSA) advisors were examined in the current study. The formation of GSAs has been one way that schools have sought to improve the school climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) youth. Limited information…

Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

2010-05-01

This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the

The Northern States Power Company welding manual advisor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, Yi; Wood, R.M.

1993-01-01

The Welding Manual Advisor (WMA) is an object oriented expert system designed to assist Northern States Power (NSP) personnel in implementing the company's Welding Manual. The expert system captures the knowledge of welding experts, addresses important issues in welding activities and automates the use of the Welding Manual. It is estimated that use of the WMA will save $81,000 over the next six years at NSP, because of the reduction of labor and errors in the use of the Welding Manual, and facilitation of training of NSP personnel. The important features of the WMA include the accuracy and consistency in determining welding procedure and requirements, update capability, user friendly interface, on-line help function, back-up capability, and well-documented manuals

78 FR 11702 - AdvisorShares Investments, LLC and AdvisorShares Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-19

..., American Wealth Management, Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, Rockledge Advisors, LLC, Your Source Financial... of Investment Management, Office of Investment Company Regulation). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The... organized as a Delaware statutory trust and is registered under the Act as an open-end management investment...

Modeling a Theory-Based Approach to Examine the Influence of Neurocognitive Impairment on HIV Risk Reduction Behaviors Among Drug Users in Treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

2016-08-01

Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs, sus siglas en inglés) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one's ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs.

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Perceptions of Effectiveness and Job Satisfaction of Pre-Law Advisors

Science.gov (United States)

Knotts, H. Gibbs; Wofford, Claire B.

2017-01-01

Despite playing an important role, preprofessional advising has received little research attention. For this study, 313 U.S. preprofessional advisors were surveyed in 2015. Drawing on work adjustment and social cognitive career theories, we analyzed the job satisfaction and perceived effectiveness of pre-law advisors. The major findings reveal…

A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

2009-01-01

Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

An Iraq C-130 Aviation Advisor Mission and Lessons for the Future

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bauer, Michael J

2007-01-01

.... A review of lessons learned from the initial Iraq C-130 advisor mission provided insights into challenges stemming from differences in United States advisors and Iraqi airmen in language, culture...

Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

2017-01-01

Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

Robo advisor, your reliable partner? Building a trustworthy digital investment management service

OpenAIRE

Salo, Anni

2017-01-01

Investment management services have strongly relied on traditional face-to-face business models, causing the services being highly expensive and therefore available only for the wealthiest population. Recently a new digital business model, robo advisors, entered the market and are predicted to democratise the entire industry by bringing investment management services available to a wider public than ever before. Although the business models in financial services are changing, customer tr...

Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambrosi, Ph.

2004-05-01

After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO 2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

The Advisor and Instructor as a Dynamic Duo: Academic Motivation and Basic Psychological Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Burt, Tracie D.; Young-Jones, Adena D.; Yadon, Carly A.; Carr, Michael T.

2013-01-01

Students learn in and out of a formal classroom, and instructors and academic advisors play key roles in academic motivation and learning. Therefore, through the lens of self-determination theory, we examined the ways perceived support from instructors and advisors relates to satisfaction of college students' basic psychological needs. Advisor and…

Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei

2013-08-15

This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Student goal orientation in learning inquiry skills with modifiable software advisors

Science.gov (United States)

Shimoda, Todd Adrian

A computer support environment (SCI-WISE) for learning and doing inquiry was designed. The system incorporates software advisors that give task completion advice (eg., forming hypotheses), general purpose advice (e.g., brainstorming), or system modification advice. Advisors' knowledge includes concepts, strategies, examples, referrals to other advisors, and criteria for evaluating good products and skills. Students using SCI-WISE can select the advisors' advice type (specific, general, or hints), and when advisors give advice (anytime, alert, or ask). Students can also modify the advisors' knowledge. The system is designed partly on a theoretical framework that assumes giving students higher levels of agency will facilitate higher-level goal orientation (such as knowledge-building) and produce higher levels of competence. In two studies of sixth graders, science students took a pretest of an open-ended inquiry question and a questionnaire that measured their goal orientations. The students worked in pairs on an inquiry project about memory, using one of two versions of SCI-WISE, one modifiable and one not modifiable. After finishing the project, the students took a posttest similar to the pretest, and evaluated the system. The main hypotheses predicted that knowledge-oriented students using the modifiable version would rate the system higher, use it more effectively, and do better on the inquiry posttest than task-oriented students. The results supported many of the hypotheses generated from the theoretical framework. Knowledge-oriented students tended to rate SCI-WISE higher, use more general purpose and system development advisors, and select more general advice and hints than task-oriented students. On the posttest inquiry test, students with higher goal orientations scored higher on average, particularly when paired with another knowledge oriented student. The studies also showed that goal orientation was not correlated with grade point average. Finally, the

Knowledge representation and knowledge base design for operator advisor system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hangos, K.M.; Sziano, T.; Tapolcai, L.

1990-01-01

The problems of knowledge representation, knowledge base handling and design has been described for an Operator Advisor System in the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. The Operator Advisor System is to be implemented as a part of the 5th and 6th unit. The knowledge of the Operator Advisor system is described by a few elementary knowledge items (diagnostic event functions, fault graph, action trees), weighted directed graphs have been found as their common structure. List-type and relational representation of these graphs have been used for the on-line and off-line part of the knowledge base respectively. A uniform data base design and handling has been proposed which consists of a design system, a knowledge base editor and a knowledge base compiler

Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

2009-01-01

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Explaining Doctoral Students' Relational Maintenance with Their Advisor: A Psychosocial Development Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Zachary W.; Goodboy, Alan K.

2017-01-01

This study explored how psychosocial development affects doctoral students' relationship and communication with their advisor. Chickering and Reisser's vectors of psychosocial development were examined in the doctoral context to understand how students preserve communicatively satisfying relationships with their advisor through the use of…

Knowledge, attitudes and beliefs towards e-cigarettes among e-cigarette users and stop smoking advisors in South East England: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamimi, Nancy

2018-03-01

Aim To explore how e-cigarettes are perceived by a group of e-cigarette users and a group of Stop Smoking Advisors (SSAs), what are the risks and benefits they associate with e-cigarettes and how do these understandings shape participants' attitude towards e-cigarettes? Face-to-face and phone interviews were conducted with 15 e-cigarette users and 13 SSAs in South East England between 2014 and 2015. Transcribed data were analysed inductively through thematic analysis. Findings E-cigarettes were used as a therapeutic aid to stop or cut down smoking and as a smoking substitute. A prominent theme is the uncertainty e-cigarettes have generated. This included ambiguity of e-cigarettes' status and efficacy, and ambiguity of e-cigarettes' physical and social risks. Different attitudes towards e-cigarettes were identified. E-cigarettes' benefits and risks should be continuously evaluated, put into perspective and circulated to avoid ambiguity. Stop smoking services need to recognise the benefits that can be gained by using e-cigarettes as a harm reduction tool.

Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

2014-01-01

The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cem Tekeşin

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

The American Military Advisor: Dealing with Senior Foreign Officials in the Islamic World

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Metrinko, Michael J

2008-01-01

"The American Military Advisor: Dealing with Senior Foreign Officials in the Islamic World" is a comprehensive guide for American military officers assigned as advisors to regional officials in places very different from the United States...

Senior Media Relations Advisor | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

In addition, the Advisor contributes to the Centre's corporate strategic and ... of media strategies, opportunities, approaches, and initiatives to enhance awareness, ... The job demands strategic thinking and planning skills as well as diplomacy, ...

Compensation Services Advisor | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Job Summary The Compensation Services Advisor is accountable for the effective ... Coordinates the annual Performance Review and Assessment System ... by IDRC and the broader financial and social implications of working in Canada. ... in areas such as mortgages, credit and so on to individuals not accustomed to ...

Outage risk reduction at Diablo Canyon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burnett, Tobias W.T.; Eugene Newman, C.

2004-01-01

A formal risk reduction program was conducted at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating plant as part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management Program. The program began with a probabilistic and deterministic assessment of the frequency of core coolant boiling and core uncovery during shutdown operations. This step identified important contributors to risk, periods of high vulnerability, and potential mechanisms for reducing risk. Next, recovery strategies were evaluated and procedures, training, and outage schedules modified. Twelve risk reduction enhancements were developed and implemented. These enhancements and their impact are described in this paper. These enhancements reduced the calculated risk of core uncovery by about a factor of four for a refueling outage without lengthening the outage schedule; increased the outage efficiency, contributing to completing 11 days ahead of schedule; and helped to earn the highest achievable SALP rating from the NRC. (author)

Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Maureen E

2008-01-01

To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

2013-11-01

Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies.

Industrial-Organizational and Human Factors Graduate Program Admission: Information for Undergraduate Advisors

Science.gov (United States)

Shoenfelt, Elizabeth L.; Stone, Nancy J.; Kottke, Janet L.

2015-01-01

Many psychology departments do not have industrial-organizational (IO) or human factors (HF) faculty members. As such, potential IO and HF graduate students may miss career opportunities because faculty advisors are unfamiliar with the disciplines and their graduate programs. To assist advisors, this article highlights the content of IO and HF…

The Home, the Family and the Energy Advisor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tjørring, Lise

within. The empirical focus is on the households' potential to perform energy renovations of their homes and adopt flexible electricity use. Four papers investigate what characterises the social and gendered engagements among the home, the family and the energy advisor and the implications...... events, social relations, historical conditions and social status. These findings call for new methods to increase the number of energy renovations and the likelihood of adopting flexible electricity use. We must focus on the home not only as a technical issue that can be improved but also as a dwelling...... space that contains gendered practices, cultural norms and social engagements among the home, the family and the energy advisor....

The influence of TripAdvisor portal on hotel bussines in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Čačić Krunoslav

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Numerous researches have shown the existence of influence of specialized Web 2.0 portals on hotel business. One of most famous portals of that kind is TripAdvisor. The goal of this work is to determine the degree and mode of representation of hotels in Serbia on TripAdvisor portal. The results of the conducted research show that in past years the number of hotels from Serbia represented on this portal has increased significantly. At the end of 2012 there have been registered 3.288 comments which evaluated the service quality of 165 hotels from Serbia. The average vote, on five-degree scale, calculated at the level of all represented hotels at the end of 2012 was 3,92. Considering that Belgrade represents the primarily business, administrative and touristic center of Serbia, on the Belgrade's hotels specimen there has been analyzed the connection between business performances of hotels expressed through indicator TREVPAR and their image on TripAdvisor expressed through average vote determined based on user's comments, as well as in relation with TripAdvisor Popularity Index (TPI. The results show the high degree of correlation between analyzed features on the specimen of Belgrade's hotels, in range of hotels of second (4* and third category (3*. Having in mind the results of conducted research it is obvious that the hotels managers from Serbia should adopt and implement the corresponding procedures of monitoring and adequate reactions on contents on TripAdvisor, considering their influence on behavior of modern consumer in hotels.

Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

A Preliminary Report of Advisor Perceptions of Advising and of a Profession

Science.gov (United States)

Aiken-Wisniewski, Sharon A.; Johnson, Anna; Larson, Joshua; Barkemeyer, Jason

2015-01-01

Practicing advisors may not agree, know, or understand that advising does not meet the scholarly definition of a profession. Through a phenomenological study, members of NACADA: The Global Community for Academic Advising were invited to describe the position of academic advisor. The data gathered were used to address two research questions:…

Safety review advisor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boshers, J.A.; Uhrig, R.E.; Alguindigue, I.A.; Burnett, C.G.

1991-01-01

The University of Tennessee's Nuclear Engineering department, in cooperation with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is evaluating the feasibility of utilizing an expert system to aid in 10CFR50.59 evaluations. This paper discusses the history of 10CFR50.59 reviews, and details the development approach used in the construction of a prototype Safety Review Advisor (SRA). The goals for this expert system prototype are to aid the engineer in the evaluation process by directing his attention to the appropriate critical issues, increase the efficiency, consistency, and thoroughness of the evaluation process, and provide a foundation of appropriate Safety Analysis Report (SAR) references for the reviewer

78 FR 11865 - President's Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-20

.... Brown, Jr., White House Initiative on Historically Black Colleges and Universities, U.S. Department of... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION President's Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities AGENCY: U.S. Department of Education, President's Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges...

Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wambui, Joseph M.; Karuri, Edward G.; Ojiambo, Julia A.

2017-01-01

the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability......Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose...... distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 +/- 514 and 158 +/- 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 +/- 518 cases per...

Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

Science.gov (United States)

Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

2012-01-01

Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khurshedi, N.

2005-01-01

During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and slides, tsunami tropical cyclones and other severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river floods and coastal flooding, wildfire and associated haze drought, sand/dust storms, and insect infestations have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructure, as well as environmental damages. Economic losses have increased almost ten times during this period. As it happen in recent Asia Tsunami, in which over 2, 00,000 people reportedly killed, estimated five million homeless, and resulted in massive displacement of population and extensive damage to infrastructure. The escalation of severe disaster events triggered by natural hazards and related technological and environment disasters is increasingly threatening both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives. The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well a multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs. For this Disaster risk reduction-.strategies are aimed at enabling societies at risk to become engaged in the conscious management of risk and the reduction of vulnerability. The adoption of appropriate development policies can reduce disaster risk. These policies should be gender sensitive and need the necessary political commitment. They involve the adoption of suitable regulatory and other legal measures, institutional reform, improved analytical and methodological capabilities, financial planning, education and awareness. (author)

Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pekka Tuominen

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

78 FR 14297 - President's Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-05

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION President's Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and... Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities scheduled for March 6, 2013, and... for a date to be announced in the future. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John P. Brown, Designated...

THE ROLE OF 'PROFESSIONAL ADVISORS ON FINANCIAL MATTERS' IN ENTREPRENEURIAL NETWORKS

OpenAIRE

KIM KLYVER; KEVIN HINDLE

2010-01-01

This study investigated the influence that 'professional advisors on financial matters' have in comparison with other people with whom entrepreneurs discuss their venture. Based on follow-up surveys completed in relation to the Danish participation in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey, it was found that professional advisors on financial matters only play a minor role in the two early phases of the entrepreneurial process before the venture is actually started. It was further r...

Guide to good practices for the selection, training, and qualification of shift technical advisors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-02-01

The DOE Guide to Good Practices For The Selection, Training, and Qualification of Shift Technical Advisors can be used by any DOE nuclear facility that has implemented the shift technical advisor position. DOE Order 5480-20, ``Personnel Selection, Qualification, Training, and Staffing Requirements at DOE Reactor and Non-Reactor Nuclear Facilities,`` states that only Category A reactors must use shift technical advisor position. However, many DOE nuclear facilities have implemented the shift technical advisor position to provide independent on-shift technical advice and counsel to the shift operating personnel to help determine cause and mitigation of facility accidents. Those DOE nuclear facilities that have implemented or are going to implement the shift technical advisor position will find this guide useful. This guide addresses areas that may be covered by other training programs. In these cases, it is unnecessary (and undesirable) to duplicate these areas in the STA training program as long as the specific skills and knowledge essential for STAs are addressed. The guide is presented based on the premise that the trainee has not completed any facility-specific training other than general employee training.

Viewpoints of students of Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences regarding their academic advisors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.H Fallah Yakhdani

2012-02-01

Results: The majority of samples were from Nursing, Midwifery, and Public Health School and a few from Faculty of Medicine. The majority of students (41.8% agreed to have the same advisor from the first term to the last. Also the results showed that the functions of advisors were poor in the areas of constant supervision and monitoring of students’ educational status (35.8%, preparing the timetable for performing the personal or group counseling (41.8% and providing counseling sessions according to the timetable (42.3%. But their functions were fair in the areas of acceptable guidance of students in the educational problems (35.1%, and the advisor’s familiarity to educational regulations (43.9%. It is necessary to note that the advisor's ability in making the intimate relationship with students (37.1%, and the advisors’ motivation and tendency to guidance and counseling (30.1% were the two items evaluated excellent by students. Conclusion: It is necessary that advisors make the students familiar with educational regulations at the first semester of higher education. Also, the policies and regulations for advisors will clarify their activities and will help them to perform better.

Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

OpenAIRE

Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

2013-01-01

The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

Safety review advisor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boshers, J.A.; Alguindigue, I.E.; Uhrig, R.E.

1989-01-01

The University of Tennessee's Nuclear Engineering Department, in cooperation with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is evaluating the feasibility of utilizing an expert system to aid in 10CFR50.59 evaluations. This paper discusses the history of 10CFR50.59 reviews, and details the development approach used in the construction of a prototype Safety Review Advisor (SRA). The goals for this expert system prototype are to (1) aid the engineer in the evaluation process by directing his attention to the appropriate critical issues, (2) increase the efficiency, consistency, and thoroughness of the evaluation process, and (3) provide a foundation of appropriate Safety Analysis Report (SAR) references for the reviewer. 6 refs., 2 figs

Thomas Sinks, Director, Office of the Science Advisor

Science.gov (United States)

Biography of the Director of the Office of the Science Advisor which is responsible for is responsible for EPA’s human subject research ethics, scientific integrity, and developing cross-agency science policy guidance.

78 FR 46381 - Calamos Advisors LLC and Calamos ETF Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-31

... Advisors LLC and Calamos ETF Trust; Notice of Application July 24, 2013. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange... sections 12(d)(1)(A) and (B) of the Act. Applicants: Calamos Advisors LLC (``Adviser'') and Calamos ETF... series of the Trust will be the Calamos Focus Growth ETF (the ``Initial Fund''), the investment objective...

GSA Advisors' Self-Efficacy Related to LGBT Youth of Color and Transgender Youth

Science.gov (United States)

Poteat, V. Paul; Scheer, Jillian R.

2016-01-01

Gay-Straight Alliances (GSAs) serve lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) and heterosexual youth from diverse backgrounds. Although some attention has been given to youth members in general, little attention has been given to adult advisors. Among 47 GSA advisors from 33 high schools (39 cisgender female, 8 cisgender male), the authors…

How do incentives lead to deception in advisor-client interactions? Explicit and implicit strategies of self-interested deception.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackinger, Barbara; Jonas, Eva

2012-01-01

When confronted with important questions we like to rely on the advice of experts. However, uncertainty can occur regarding advisors' motivation to pursue self-interest and deceive the client. This can especially occur when the advisor has the possibility to receive an incentive by recommending a certain alternative. We investigated how the possibility to pursue self-interest led to explicit strategic behavior (bias in recommendation and transfer of information) and to implicit strategic behavior (bias in information processing: evaluation and memory). In Study 1 explicit strategic behavior could be identified: self-interested advisors recommended more often the self-serving alternative and transferred more self-interested biased information to their client compared to the advisor without specific interest. Also deception through implicit strategic behavior was identified: self-interested advisors biased the evaluation of information less in favor of the client compared to the control group. Self-interested advisors also remembered conflicting information regarding their self-interest worse compared to advisors without self-interest. In Study 2 beside self-interest we assessed accountability which interacted with self-interest and increased the bias: when accountability was high advisor's self-interest led to higher explicit strategic behavior (less transfer of conflicting information), and to higher implicit strategic behavior (devaluated and remembered less conflicting information). Both studies identified implicit strategic behavior as mediator which can explain the relation between self-interest and explicit strategic behavior. Results of both studies suggest that self-interested advisors use explicit and implicit strategic behavior to receive an incentive. Thus, advisors do not only consciously inform their clients "self-interested," but they are influenced unconsciously by biased information processing - a tendency which even increased with high

Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

2017-01-01

Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M

2002-03-01

To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

Returning to Our Small Wars Roots: Preparing Marine Advisors to Help Other Lands Meet Future Threats

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-26

1918 uprising. Not surprisingly, the best qualified Marines like Smedley Butler were sent to France, adding to these challenges. When confronted... Robert S. McNamara authorized advisors for each province and advisory teams for each combat battalion. In addition to the increased role advisors...University of Pennsylvania Press, 2009), 51. 17 Ibid, 40. 18 Ibid. 19 Ramsey III, Robert D., Advising Indigenous Forces: American Advisors in

LIA: An Intelligent Advisor for E-Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Capuano, Nicola; Gaeta, Matteo; Marengo, Agostino; Miranda, Sergio; Orciuoli, Francesco; Ritrovato, Pierluigi

2009-01-01

Intelligent e-learning systems have revolutionized online education by providing individualized and personalized instruction for each learner. Nevertheless, until now very few systems were able to leave academic laboratories and be integrated into real commercial products. One of these few exceptions is the Learning Intelligent Advisor (LIA)…

Investigating obesity risk-reduction behaviours and psychosocial factors in Chinese Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, Doreen; Bauer, Kathleen; Bai, Yeon

2014-11-01

The purpose of this research was to examine the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours related to obesity risk reduction in Chinese Americans. A questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 300 US-born and foreign-born Chinese Americans residing in the New York metropolitan area, ranging from 18 to 40 years of age. Obesity risk reduction behaviours and psychosocial variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model were measured. Acculturation was assessed using a modified Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale. Frequency distributions were delineated and stepwise regression analyses were analysed for different acculturation groups. 65% of the respondents were female and the mean age of the sample was 26 years. Respondents indicated the most commonly practised behaviour to be eating home-cooked meals instead of restaurant-prepared foods. Perceived barriers to adopting obesity risk-reduction behaviours included convenience of consuming fast foods, cost, lack of time to prepare home-cooked meals, and the physical environment of unhealthy foods. In predicting intention to perform obesity risk-reduction behaviours, attitude was significant for 'western-identified' individuals. In 'Asian-identified' individuals, perceived behavioural control, self-efficacy and perceived benefits were salient. Nutrition educators working with Chinese Americans need to address self-efficacy in preparing plant-based, home-cooked meals and making healthy choices at fast-food restaurants with portion control. Concrete and perceived barriers such as lack of time and convenience need to be addressed in nutrition education interventions. Educators need to identify new channels and media outlets to disseminate practical, easy-to-implement behaviours for obesity risk reduction that are socially acceptable. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

SPILC: An expert student advisor

Science.gov (United States)

Read, D. R.

1990-01-01

The Lamar University Computer Science Department serves about 350 undergraduate C.S. majors, and 70 graduate majors. B.S. degrees are offered in Computer Science and Computer and Information Science, and an M.S. degree is offered in Computer Science. In addition, the Computer Science Department plays a strong service role, offering approximately sixteen service course sections per long semester. The department has eight regular full-time faculty members, including the Department Chairman and the Undergraduate Advisor, and from three to seven part-time faculty members. Due to the small number of regular faculty members and the resulting very heavy teaching loads, undergraduate advising has become a difficult problem for the department. There is a one week early registration period and a three-day regular registration period once each semester. The Undergraduate Advisor's regular teaching load of two classes, 6 - 8 semester hours, per semester, together with the large number of majors and small number of regular faculty, cause long queues and short tempers during these advising periods. The situation is aggravated by the fact that entering freshmen are rarely accompanied by adequate documentation containing the facts necessary for proper counselling. There has been no good method of obtaining necessary facts and documenting both the information provided by the student and the resulting advice offered by the counsellors.

Risk reduction by filtered venting in PWR large dry-containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gazzillo, F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1984-01-01

The potential risk reduction associated with a Filtered-Vented Containment System is evaluated. A low-volume venting strategy has been considered and data referring to the Zion power plant, along with the results of the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study, have been used. An estimate of the reduction factor is first made for a single core melt accident sequence whose containment failure mode is late overpressure. The result, interpreted as a reduction factor applicable to the release category associated with containment late overpressure is then used for the estimation of the overall risk reduction factor. In particular, the case of internal and external risk for the Zion power plant are considered. Because the contribution from seismic events dominates the overall risk, the importance of different assumptions for seismic fragility is also assessed. Finally an uncertainty analysis of the risk reduction factor for a single accident sequence is performed. An estimate is also obtained on the level of confidence with which certain required values of risk reduction can be achieved. (orig.)

The effect of risk perception on public preferences and willingness to pay for reductions in the health risks posed by toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A

2012-06-01

Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Latino sexual and gender identity minorities promoting sexual health within their social networks: Process evaluation findings from a lay health advisor intervention

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Christina J.; García, Manuel; Mann, Lilli; Alonzo, Jorge; Eng, Eugenia; Rhodes, Scott D.

2015-01-01

The HOLA intervention was a lay health advisor intervention designed to reduce the disproportionate HIV burden borne by Latino sexual and gender identity minorities (gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, and transgender persons) living in the United States. Process evaluation data were collected for over a year of intervention implementation from 11 trained Latino male and transgender lay health advisors (Navegantes) to document the activities each Navegante conducted to promote condom use and HIV testing among his or her 8 social network members enrolled in the study. Over 13 months, the Navegantes reported conducting 1,820 activities. The most common activity was condom distribution. Navegantes had extensive reach beyond their enrolled social network members, and they engaged in health promotion activities beyond social network members enrolled in the study. There were significant differences between the types of activities conducted by Navegantes depending on who was present. Results suggest that lay health advisor interventions reach large number of at-risk community members and may benefit populations disproportionately impacted by HIV. PMID:25416309

POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

Science.gov (United States)

The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

2017-12-01

Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parabolic Trough Collector Cost Update for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurup, Parthiv [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Turchi, Craig S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-11-01

This report updates the baseline cost for parabolic trough solar fields in the United States within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM, available at no cost at https://sam.nrel.gov/, is a performance and financial model designed to facilitate decision making for people involved in the renewable energy industry. SAM is the primary tool used by NREL and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for estimating the performance and cost of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies and projects. The study performed a bottom-up build and cost estimate for two state-of-the-art parabolic trough designs -- the SkyTrough and the Ultimate Trough. The SkyTrough analysis estimated the potential installed cost for a solar field of 1500 SCAs as $170/m² +/- $6/m². The investigation found that SkyTrough installed costs were sensitive to factors such as raw aluminum alloy cost and production volume. For example, in the case of the SkyTrough, the installed cost would rise to nearly $210/m² if the aluminum alloy cost was $1.70/lb instead of $1.03/lb. Accordingly, one must be aware of fluctuations in the relevant commodities markets to track system cost over time. The estimated installed cost for the Ultimate Trough was only slightly higher at $178/m², which includes an assembly facility of $11.6 million amortized over the required production volume. Considering the size and overall cost of a 700 SCA Ultimate Trough solar field, two parallel production lines in a fully covered assembly facility, each with the specific torque box, module and mirror jigs, would be justified for a full CSP plant.

Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...... for COPD. After multivariate adjustment, quitting smoking was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hospital admission. The relative hazard (HR) was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.99). Those who reduced smoking did not show a significantly lower risk of hospitalisation than...

To Whistleblow or Not to Whistleblow: Affective and Cognitive Differences in Reporting Peers and Advisors.

Science.gov (United States)

McIntosh, Tristan; Higgs, Cory; Turner, Megan; Partlow, Paul; Steele, Logan; MacDougall, Alexandra E; Connelly, Shane; Mumford, Michael D

2017-09-20

Traditional whistleblowing theories have purported that whistleblowers engage in a rational process in determining whether or not to blow the whistle on misconduct. However, stressors inherent to whistleblowing often impede rational thinking and act as a barrier to effective whistleblowing. The negative impact of these stressors on whistleblowing may be made worse depending on who engages in the misconduct: a peer or advisor. In the present study, participants are presented with an ethical scenario where either a peer or advisor engages in misconduct, and positive and the negative consequences of whistleblowing are either directed to the wrongdoer, department, or university. Participant responses to case questions were evaluated for whistleblowing intentions, moral intensity, metacognitive reasoning strategies, and positive and negative, active and passive emotions. Findings indicate that participants were less likely to report the observed misconduct of an advisor compared to a peer. Furthermore, the findings also suggest that when an advisor is the source of misconduct, greater negative affect results. Post-hoc analyses were also conducted examining the differences between those who did and did not intend to blow the whistle under the circumstances of either having to report an advisor or peer. The implications of these findings for understanding the complexities involved in whistleblowing are discussed.

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Shan Hsu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

Prevalence of risk factors for tail biting on commercial farms and intervention strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Nina R; Parker, Richard M A; Mendl, Michael; Edwards, Sandra A; Main, David C J

2012-10-01

A husbandry advisory tool (HAT) was devised to help pig producers and their advisors identify and minimise possible risk factors for tail biting in finishing pigs. The prevalence of 83 risk factors identified from the literature and expert opinion was recorded on 65 commercial pig farms in England between May 2007 and July 2009. Those considered most important were associated with atmosphere/environment, environmental enrichment, the provision of food/drink and animal health factors. Forty-six farms received advice on minimising these risks and, of these, 27 also received a financial incentive to encourage the uptake of advice. A reduction in risk factors was observed on 42/57 farms visited at the end of the study, with the greatest reduction occurring on the farms that had been incentivised. However, farms not receiving advice also had reduced risk factors associated with atmosphere/environment and stocking density over the course of the study. In conclusion, while some risk factors are structural and require substantial capital investment to change, a significant reduction in the risk of tail biting can be achieved on many farms through the systematic evaluation and modification of management practices. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Undergraduate Students' Perceptions of the Communication Behaviors of Their Advisors and Perceptions of Relational Satisfaction

Science.gov (United States)

Punyanunt-Carter, Narissra; Carter, Stacy

2015-01-01

This study examined the specific interpersonal communication styles and behaviors of advisors and the expectations they have on their advisee's level of satisfaction, as well as what characteristics lead to higher relational satisfaction in the advisor-advisee relationship. A combination of convenience and snowball sampling were utilized to obtain…

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Error Propagation Within Hierarchical Air Combat Models

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

values alone are propagated through layers of combat models, the final results will likely be biased, and risk underestimated. An air-to-air...values alone are propagated through layers of combat models, the final results will likely be biased, and risk underestimated. An air-to-air engagement... PROPAGATION WITHIN HIERARCHICAL AIR COMBAT MODELS by Salih Ilaslan June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Thomas W. Lucas Second Reader: Jeffrey

An Exploration of the Relationship between International Students and Their Advisors in U.S. Higher Education Institution

OpenAIRE

Mitra, Shreya

2017-01-01

International students in U.S. academic settings are facing barriers in the path of their academic accomplishments. In higher educational institutions, students work very closely with their academic advisors to solve a definite problem. Dependence on the academic advisor is much more when the advisee is international. Keeping these points in mind, one of the factors that might impact academic environment for an international student is the bonding that they share with their advisor. This rese...

Risk Management in Cocurricular Activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Edward M.

1988-01-01

Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…

Disaster management and risk reduction in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Bruwer, A

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction concludes that the mortality and economic loss associated with extensive risks (minor but recurrent disaster risks) in low- and middle-income countries are trending up. In the last decade...

77 FR 5585 - Northwestern Mutual Series Fund, Inc. and Mason Street Advisors, LLC; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-03

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Investment Company Act Release No. 29939; File No. 812-13982] Northwestern Mutual Series Fund, Inc. and Mason Street Advisors, LLC; Notice of Application January 30, 2012... instruments. Applicants: Northwestern Mutual Series Fund, Inc. (``Company'') and Mason Street Advisors, LLC...

Are South African financial advisor addressing the estate planning objectives that are important to their client?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Venter, J.M.P.

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Estate planning is an important aspect of any effective financial plan. When preparing an estate plan several objectives identified by the individual planner, as well as several pieces of legislation have to be considered. In South Africa the actions of financial advisors are regulated by the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act. The act aims to ensure that the financial advisor act in the best interest of his / her client. If the act meets its set objectives there will be an alignment of objectives set by a financial advisor and his / her client. This study investigates the existence of an expectation gap between the estate planning objectives considered to be important by the financial advisor and the importance allocated to these factors by the clients. The study found that there was an expectation gap for three of the objectives that should be considered in the estate plan

How do incentives lead to deception in advisors-client interactions? Explicit and implicit strategies of self-interested deception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara eMackinger

2012-12-01

Full Text Available When confronted with important questions we like to rely on the advice of experts. However, uncertainty can occur regarding advisors’ motivation to pursue self-interest and deceive the client. This can especially occur when the advisor has the possibility to receive an incentive by recommending a certain alternative. We investigated how the possibility to pursue self-interest led to explicit strategic behavior (bias in recommendation and transfer of information and to implicit strategic behavior (bias in information processing: evaluation and memory. In Study 1 explicit strategic behavior could be identified: Self-interested advisors recommended more often the self-serving alternative and transferred more self-interested biased information to their client compared to the advisor without specific interest. Also deception through implicit strategic behavior was identified: Self-interested advisors biased the evaluation of information less in favor of the client compared to the control group. Self-interested advisors also remembered conflicting information regarding their self-interest worse compared to advisors without self-interest. In Study 2 beside self-interest we assessed accountability which interacted with self-interest and increased the bias: When accountability was high advisor’s self-interest led to higher explicit strategic behavior (less transfer of conflicting information, and to higher implicit strategic behavior (devaluated and remembered less conflicting information. Both studies identified implicit strategic behavior as mediator which can explain the relation between self-interest and explicit strategic behavior. Results of both studies suggest that self-interested advisors use explicit and implicit strategic behavior to receive an incentive. Thus, advisors do not only consciously inform their clients self-interested, but they are influenced unconsciously by biased information processing—a tendency which even increased with

Reduction of hexavalent chromium by fasted and fed human gastric fluid. II. Ex vivo gastric reduction modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirman, Christopher R., E-mail: ckirman@summittoxicology.com [Summit Toxicology, Orange Village, OH, 44022 (United States); Suh, Mina, E-mail: msuh@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Mission Viejo, CA, 92692 (United States); Hays, Sean M., E-mail: shays@summittoxicology.com [Summit Toxicology, Allenspark, CO, 8040 (United States); Gürleyük, Hakan, E-mail: hakan@brooksrand.com [Brooks Applied Labs, Bothell, WA, 98011 (United States); Gerads, Russ, E-mail: russ@brooksrand.com [Brooks Applied Labs, Bothell, WA, 98011 (United States); De Flora, Silvio, E-mail: sdf@unige.it [Department of Health Sciences, University of Genoa, 16132 Genoa (Italy); Parker, William, E-mail: william.parker@duke.edu [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Durham, NC, 27710 (United States); Lin, Shu, E-mail: shu.lin@duke.edu [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Durham, NC, 27710 (United States); Haws, Laurie C., E-mail: lhaws@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Katy, TX, 77494 (United States); Harris, Mark A., E-mail: mharris@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Austin, TX, 78751 (United States); Proctor, Deborah M., E-mail: dproctor@toxstrategies.com [ToxStrategies, Inc., Mission Viejo, CA, 92692 (United States)

2016-09-01

To extend previous models of hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] reduction by gastric fluid (GF), ex vivo experiments were conducted to address data gaps and limitations identified with respect to (1) GF dilution in the model; (2) reduction of Cr(VI) in fed human GF samples; (3) the number of Cr(VI) reduction pools present in human GF under fed, fasted, and proton pump inhibitor (PPI)-use conditions; and (4) an appropriate form for the pH-dependence of Cr(VI) reduction rate constants. Rates and capacities of Cr(VI) reduction were characterized in gastric contents from fed and fasted volunteers, and from fasted pre-operative patients treated with PPIs. Reduction capacities were first estimated over a 4-h reduction period. Once reduction capacity was established, a dual-spike approach was used in speciated isotope dilution mass spectrometry analyses to characterize the concentration-dependence of the 2nd order reduction rate constants. These data, when combined with previously collected data, were well described by a three-pool model (pool 1 = fast reaction with low capacity; pool 2 = slow reaction with higher capacity; pool 3 = very slow reaction with higher capacity) using pH-dependent rate constants characterized by a piecewise, log-linear relationship. These data indicate that human gastric samples, like those collected from rats and mice, contain multiple pools of reducing agents, and low concentrations of Cr(VI) (< 0.7 mg/L) are reduced more rapidly than high concentrations. The data and revised modeling results herein provide improved characterization of Cr(VI) gastric reduction kinetics, critical for Cr(VI) pharmacokinetic modeling and human health risk assessment. - Highlights: • SIDMS allows for measurement of Cr(VI) reduction rate in gastric fluid ex vivo • Human gastric fluid has three reducing pools • Cr(VI) in drinking water at < 0.7 mg/L is rapidly reduced in human gastric fluid • Reduction rate is concentration- and pH-dependent • A refined PK

78 FR 30346 - Financial Investors Trust and Hanson McClain Strategic Advisors, Inc.; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-22

...] Financial Investors Trust and Hanson McClain Strategic Advisors, Inc.; Notice of Application May 15, 2013... instruments. Applicants: Financial Investors Trust (the ``Trust''), on behalf of the Pathway Advisors... consistent with the public interest and the protection of investors. Applicants seek an exemption under...

Theoretical construction of the contextualized dynamics of the constant shaping of advisor professors in the teaching unit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nirma Pérez-Pelipiche

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This work paper shows research results on the contextualized dynamics of the constant shaping of advisor professors in the teaching unit, taking epistemological foundations as a starting point, which substantiate their theoretical construction. A model has been displayed basing on comprehension and interpretation of this process as a whole, in which its subsystems, components, structure, relations and levels among them, prove contradictions that become evident in such process, therefore allowing to structure the dynamics of shaping professors as an instrument, earning, as a result, the transforming capability of advisor professors when practicing their skill, having the teaching unit as a scenary. In that way we used different techniques: questionnaire, interviews, observation, statistical techniques and methods: historical-logical; analysis-synthesis and systemic-structural-functional, all of those ones from the hermeneutic-dialectic focus.

The Use of Images in Intelligent Advisor Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Boulet, Marie-Michele

This paper describes the intelligent advisor system, named CODAMA, used in teaching a university-level systems analysis and design course. The paper discusses: (1) the use of CODAMA to assist students to transfer theoretical knowledge to the practical; (2) details of how CODAMA is applied in conjunction with a computer-aided software engineering…

Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

2015-01-01

This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

76 FR 60564 - President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology; Notice of Meeting: Open Regional...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-29

... development. Facility and infrastructure sharing. Policies that could create a fertile innovation environment...; Notice of Meeting: Open Regional Meeting of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology... schedule and summary agenda for an open regional meeting of the President's Council of Advisors on Science...

Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RK Kamble

2013-12-01

Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

Modeling Fuel Treatment Leverage: Encounter Rates, Risk Reduction, and Suppression Cost Impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew P. Thompson

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The primary theme of this study is the cost-effectiveness of fuel treatments at multiple scales of investment. We focused on the nexus of fuel management and suppression response planning, designing spatial fuel treatment strategies to incorporate landscape features that provide control opportunities that are relevant to fire operations. Our analysis explored the frequency and magnitude of fire-treatment encounters, which are critical determinants of treatment efficacy. Additionally, we examined avoided area burned, avoided suppression costs, and avoided damages, and combined all three under the umbrella of leverage to explore multiple dimensions with which to characterize return on investment. We chose the Sierra National Forest, California, USA, as our study site, due to previous work providing relevant data and analytical products, and because it has the potential for large, long-duration fires and corresponding potential for high suppression expenditures. Modeling results generally confirmed that fire-treatment encounters are rare, such that median suppression cost savings are zero, but in extreme years, savings can more than offset upfront investments. Further, reductions in risk can expand areas where moderated suppression response would be appropriate, and these areas can be mapped in relation to fire control opportunities.

LEGAL STATUS OF ADVISORS IN THE FIELD OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHT IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

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Khrystyna Kmetyk

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to research the legal status of advisors in the field of intellectual property right in the United Kingdom. In this article an author distinguishes and gives a legal description of the types of advisors in the field of intellectual property right in the United Kingdom. The main provisions of the Rules of Conduct for Patent Attorneys, Ttrade Mark Attorneys and Other Regulated Persons (2015 are considered. Methods: to analyse the legal status of advisors in the field of intellectual property right in the United Kingdom the method of induction, systematic approach, formal legal methods were used. Results: this research provides an opportunity to broaden the understanding of the institute of advisors in the field of intellectual property right (in particular patent attorneys and trademark attorneys in the UK and thus include this knowledge in domestic research on intellectual property right. Conclusions: the majority of types of advisors in the field of intellectual property right in the United Kingdom (patent attorneys, chartered patent attorneys, European patent attorneys, registered trademark attorneys and trademark attorneys, European trademark attorneys, etc. is well-educated professionals in all areas of intellectual property and are able to advise on a wide range of technical and commercial issues in this field. The obtained results will have a positive impact on the reform of the institute of representatives in the field of intellectual property in Ukraine in order to ensure its effectiveness and relevance to the challenges of the present.

Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

2005-01-01

Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

Contextualizing Gay-straight Alliances: Student, Advisor, and Structural Factors Related to Positive Youth Development among Members

Science.gov (United States)

Poteat, V. Paul; Yoshikawa, Hirokazu; Calzo, Jerel P.; Gray, Mary L.; DiGiovanni, Craig D.; Lipkin, Arthur; Mundy-Shephard, Adrienne; Perrotti, Jeff; Scheer, Jillian R.; Shaw, Matthew P.

2015-01-01

Gay-straight alliances (GSAs) may promote resilience. Yet, what GSA components predict well-being? Among 146 youth and advisors in 13 GSAs (58% lesbian, gay, bisexual, or questioning; 64% White; 38% received free/reduced-cost lunch), student (demographics, victimization, attendance frequency, leadership, support, control), advisor (years served,…

Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

Children capacity in disaster risk reduction: A call for action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Mohammadinia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Disasters have various physical, psychological, social and economical effects on all age group, particularly children who are more vulnerable than adults. In the aftermath of disasters, children like pregnant women, elderly and handicaps are special group with special needs. This is because they are at greater risk based on their specific physiological and psychological characteristics. Moreover,, according to the Sendai document, children need more attention in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRRprograms design, policies implementation with a proactive approach in Disaster Risk Reduction (1. In the Sendai document it is emphasized that policies regarding disaster risk reduction, cognition and risk perception about the risk property should be considered based upon the hazards and the environment in terms of vulnerability, capacity and exposure (2.Hyogo framework for action was also already have been focused on child priority on the legislation program (3. Accordingly, it is necessary to involve children in disaster risk reduction programs actively in order to overcome their needs and their problems (4. As children are more affected groups in various aspects of disasters in most countries, their potential utilization, the conditions and space should be provided based on laws, national policies, training and capacity. Although after disaster children required particular needs and attention(5-6, they should be considered as an active group who could participate in DRR program and help their family and also the community.(4, 7 Some evidences suggest on value of children team working for community preparedness. Iran had a successful experience for using adolescence capacity as a pillar in activation of early warning; including notification announced while observing the rising sea levels for local community in order to reduce the risk of flood disaster at a local area in the North of Iran. According to the Hyogo and the Sendai documents, it seems that using

78 FR 27444 - Forum Investment Advisors, LLC, et al.;

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-10

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Investment Company Act Release No. 30507; 812-13915] Forum Investment Advisors, LLC, et al.; Notice of Application May 6, 2013. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission''). ACTION: Notice of an application for an order under section 6(c) of the...

The recovery boiler advisor. Combination of practical experience and advanced thermodynamic modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backman, R. [Aabo Akademi, Turku (Finland); Eriksson, G. [LTH/RWTH (Germany); Sundstroem, K. [Tampella Power Oy, Tampere (Finland)

1996-12-31

The Aabo Advisor is a computer based program intended to provide information about the high temperature ash and fluegas chemistry in pulping spent black liquor recovery boilers of kraft pulp mills. The program can be used for predictions of a variety of furnace and flue gas phenomena, such as fireside fouling of the heat exchanger surfaces caused by the flue gas particulate matter, emissions of SO{sub 2}(g), HCl(g) and NO{sub x}(g) with the flue gas etc. The program determines the composition of the fluegas as well as the amount and composition of the two typical fly ash fractions found in recovery boiler fluegases, the condensed fly ash particles and the carry over particles. These data are used for calculating the melting behavior of the fly ash present at different locations in the boiler and this characteristic behavior is used for the fireside fouling predictions. The program may also be used for studying how different mill processes affecting the black liquor composition affects on the fireside chemistry of the recovery boiler. As input data for the calculations only a few boiler operation parameters and the composition of the black liquor is required. The calculations are based on a one-dimensional, multi-stage chemistry model where both thermodynamic equilibrium calculations and stoichiometric material balances are used. The model calculates at first the chemistry in the lower furnace and smelt after which it moves to the upper furnace and the radiative parts of the fluegas channel. As the last block the program calculates the chemistry in the convective part, the electrostatic precipitator cath and stack. The results from each block are presented in tables, key numbers and melt curves representing the fluegas or fly ash fraction present at each location

The recovery boiler advisor. Combination of practical experience and advanced thermodynamic modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backman, R [Aabo Akademi, Turku (Finland); Eriksson, G [LTH/RWTH (Germany); Sundstroem, K [Tampella Power Oy, Tampere (Finland)

1997-12-31

The Aabo Advisor is a computer based program intended to provide information about the high temperature ash and fluegas chemistry in pulping spent black liquor recovery boilers of kraft pulp mills. The program can be used for predictions of a variety of furnace and flue gas phenomena, such as fireside fouling of the heat exchanger surfaces caused by the flue gas particulate matter, emissions of SO{sub 2}(g), HCl(g) and NO{sub x}(g) with the flue gas etc. The program determines the composition of the fluegas as well as the amount and composition of the two typical fly ash fractions found in recovery boiler fluegases, the condensed fly ash particles and the carry over particles. These data are used for calculating the melting behavior of the fly ash present at different locations in the boiler and this characteristic behavior is used for the fireside fouling predictions. The program may also be used for studying how different mill processes affecting the black liquor composition affects on the fireside chemistry of the recovery boiler. As input data for the calculations only a few boiler operation parameters and the composition of the black liquor is required. The calculations are based on a one-dimensional, multi-stage chemistry model where both thermodynamic equilibrium calculations and stoichiometric material balances are used. The model calculates at first the chemistry in the lower furnace and smelt after which it moves to the upper furnace and the radiative parts of the fluegas channel. As the last block the program calculates the chemistry in the convective part, the electrostatic precipitator cath and stack. The results from each block are presented in tables, key numbers and melt curves representing the fluegas or fly ash fraction present at each location

Knowledge Sharing Among Tourists via Social Media: A Comparison Between Facebook and TripAdvisor

OpenAIRE

Okazaki Ono, Shintaro; Andreu, Luisa; Campo, Sara

2016-01-01

This paper examines tourists’ knowledge sharing behavior in social media. Based on social capital theory, we aim to examine the effects of three dimensions of social capital—structural (social interaction ties), cognitive (shared vision), and relational (trust)—for two different types of social media: Facebook and TripAdvisor. We propose a structural model that connects an antecedent (homophily) and a consequence (knowledge sharing through posting) of these main dimensions of social capital. ...

Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

The impact of patient advisors on healthcare outcomes: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anjana E. Sharma

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient advisory councils are a way for healthcare organizations to promote patient engagement. Despite mandates to implement patient advisory councils through programs like the Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH, there is a paucity of data measuring the impact of patients functioning in advisory roles. Our objective is to investigate whether patient engagement in patient advisory councils is linked to improvements in clinical quality, patient safety or patient satisfaction. Methods We searched PubMed, SCOPUS, CINAHL and Google Scholar for English language publications between November 2002 to August 2015, using a combination of “patient advisor” and “care outcomes” search terms. Article selection utilized dual screening facilitated by DistillerSR software, with group discussion to resolve discordance. Observational studies, randomized controlled trials, and case studies were included that described patients serving in an advisory role where primary outcomes were mentioned. Reference lists of included studies and grey literature searches were conducted. Qualitative thematic analysis was performed to synthesize results. Results Database searching yielded 639 articles total after removing duplicates, with 129 articles meeting full text inclusion criteria. 32 articles were identified for final review, 16 of which were case studies. Advisory roles included patient advisory councils, ad-hoc patient committees, community advisory councils, experience-based co-design, and other. Four practice-based studies from one research group, involving community advisors in the design of public health interventions, found improved clinical outcomes. No prospective experimental studies assessed the impact of patient advisors on patient safety or patient satisfaction. One cluster-randomized RCT showed that patient advisors helped health care planning efforts identify priorities more aligned with the PCMH. Ten case studies reported

A competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, H.T.

1978-01-01

Latent radiogenic cancer fatalities from reactor accidents are considered to be more important than early fatalities. However, early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual whereas latent cancer fatalities generally result in limited life shortening. In this report a mathematical model is developed to express the reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received. The model is then used to compare the linear model of latent radiogenic cancer incidence with several nonlinear models that have appeared in the literature. (author)

Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

2004-01-01

The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

Expanding the Use of Time-Based Metering: Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor

Science.gov (United States)

Landry, Steven J.; Farley, Todd; Hoang, Ty

2005-01-01

Time-based metering is an efficient air traffic management alternative to the more common practice of distance-based metering (or "miles-in-trail spacing"). Despite having demonstrated significant operational benefit to airspace users and service providers, time-based metering is used in the United States for arrivals to just nine airports and is not used at all for non-arrival traffic flows. The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor promises to bring time-based metering into the mainstream of air traffic management techniques. Not constrained to operate solely on arrival traffic, Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor is flexible enough to work in highly congested or heavily partitioned airspace for any and all traffic flows in a region. This broader and more general application of time-based metering is expected to bring the operational benefits of time-based metering to a much wider pool of beneficiaries than is possible with existing technology. It also promises to facilitate more collaborative traffic management on a regional basis. This paper focuses on the operational concept of the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor, touching also on its system architecture, field test results, and prospects for near-term deployment to the United States National Airspace System.

Perspectives on the Science Advisor Program at Sandia National Laboratories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, P.C.; Heath, R.B.; Podlesny, A.; Channon, P.A.

1992-01-01

This paper discusses a Science Advisor Program which has been established at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the long term augmentation of math and science instruction in New Mexico schools. Volunteer SNL engineers and scientists team with the faculty of participating schools to enhance the teachers' abilities to capture and hold the student's scientific imagination and develop their scientific skills. This is done primarily through providing laboratory resources, training the teachers how to use those resources, and advising how to obtain them in the future. In its first year, over 140 advisors teamed with 132 schools, for average weekly contact with 500 teachers and 10,000 students. Surveys indicate a general rise in frequency and quality of hands-on science instruction, as well as teacher and student attitudes. An expanded evaluation is planned for subsequent years

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, D. E.

2013-11-01

This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

The introduction of forensic advisors in Belgium and their role in the criminal justice system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitzer, Sonja; Heudt, Laetitia; Barret, Aurélie; George, Lore; Van Dijk, Karolien; Gason, Fabrice; Renard, Bertrand

2018-05-01

Forensic advisors (FA) at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology (NICC), generalists in forensic science, act as an advising body to the magistrate to improve communication between the various parties involved in the investigation: magistrate, police and crime scene investigators, and forensic experts. Their role is manifold, but their main objectives are to optimise trace processing by selecting the most pertinent traces in the context of the case and by advising magistrates on the feasibility of forensic analyses in particular circumstances in regards to the latest technical advances. Despite the absence of a legal framework governing their role and involvement in judicial cases, the demand for their services has increased over the years. Initially, forensic advisors were called for complex homicide cases. Due to the proximity with the Public Prosecutor's Office, the types of offences for which their expertise was sought have become more diverse (mainly including robbery, burglary and sexual assault cases), leading to a diversity in the types of cases handled by the forensic advisors (complex, simple and review). In many of the cases they are requested for, in addition to consulting on the best analytical strategy, forensic advisors also assume the role of case coordinator regarding the seized objects and their respective analyses. Indeed, in the majority of cases treated by the FAs, two or more types of expertise have been requested and performed, either at the internal laboratories of NICC or at external laboratories. This paper explains the role of the forensic advisors in Belgium, the path that let to their current status and problems encountered. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Working Together to Deliver Usable Climate Information to Agricultural Producers and Advisors in the U.S. Corn Belt

Science.gov (United States)

Prokopy, L. S.; Widhalm, M.

2012-12-01

Weather and climate patterns are a driving force behind the success or failure of cropping systems. With U.S. corn and soybean production accounting for nearly one-third of global supplies and contributing $100 billion annually to the national economy, the ability to successfully produce crops under more variable climate conditions is critical. Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers is a USDA-funded research and extension project focused on delivering to producers and farm advisors the resources and training they need to more effectively manage variable climate conditions. The U2U team is a diverse and uniquely qualified group of climatologists, crop modelers, agronomists, economists, and social scientists from 10 Midwestern universities and two NOAA Regional Climate Centers. Together, we strive to help producers make better long-term plans on what, when and where to plant and also how to manage crops for maximum yields and minimum environmental damage. Under development are tools that will allow the agricultural community to examine the financial, production, and environmental outcomes of different management options and climate scenarios so farmers can choose strategies that fit their capabilities and acceptable levels of risk. Researchers are currently using existing data and agro-climate models to investigate the impact of climate conditions on key topics such as crop yields, fieldwork opportunities, nitrogen management, and the cost-effectiveness of irrigation and tiling. To ensure relevance and usability of U2U products, our social science team is using a number of techniques including surveys and focus groups to integrate stakeholder interests, needs, and concerns into all aspects of U2U research. It is through this coupling of physical and social science disciplines that we strive to transform existing climate information into actionable knowledge. This presentation will elaborate on U2U

March of the Robo-advisors : The potential for global expansion of digital asset management platforms

OpenAIRE

Rättyä, Jere

2016-01-01

This thesis looks into the robo-advisory market in the U.S. and Europe, with the goal of determining the international potential for a Finnish robo-advisor service and inspecting the interest of foreign service providers in the Finnish market. Fintech is becoming increasingly disruptive for the traditional and conservative financial sector, which has resulted in start-ups building their own robo-advisor platform around the world. Traditional wealth management is both expensive and exclusi...

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

Science PhD career preferences: levels, changes, and advisor encouragement.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Sauermann

Full Text Available Even though academic research is often viewed as the preferred career path for PhD trained scientists, most U.S. graduates enter careers in industry, government, or "alternative careers." There has been a growing concern that these career patterns reflect fundamental imbalances between the supply of scientists seeking academic positions and the availability of such positions. However, while government statistics provide insights into realized career transitions, there is little systematic data on scientists' career preferences and thus on the degree to which there is a mismatch between observed career paths and scientists' preferences. Moreover, we lack systematic evidence whether career preferences adjust over the course of the PhD training and to what extent advisors exacerbate imbalances by encouraging their students to pursue academic positions. Based on a national survey of PhD students at tier-one U.S. institutions, we provide insights into the career preferences of junior scientists across the life sciences, physics, and chemistry. We also show that the attractiveness of academic careers decreases significantly over the course of the PhD program, despite the fact that advisors strongly encourage academic careers over non-academic careers. Our data provide an empirical basis for common concerns regarding labor market imbalances. Our results also suggest the need for mechanisms that provide PhD applicants with information that allows them to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of pursuing a PhD, as well as for mechanisms that complement the job market advice advisors give to their current students.

Science PhD career preferences: levels, changes, and advisor encouragement.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauermann, Henry; Roach, Michael

2012-01-01

Even though academic research is often viewed as the preferred career path for PhD trained scientists, most U.S. graduates enter careers in industry, government, or "alternative careers." There has been a growing concern that these career patterns reflect fundamental imbalances between the supply of scientists seeking academic positions and the availability of such positions. However, while government statistics provide insights into realized career transitions, there is little systematic data on scientists' career preferences and thus on the degree to which there is a mismatch between observed career paths and scientists' preferences. Moreover, we lack systematic evidence whether career preferences adjust over the course of the PhD training and to what extent advisors exacerbate imbalances by encouraging their students to pursue academic positions. Based on a national survey of PhD students at tier-one U.S. institutions, we provide insights into the career preferences of junior scientists across the life sciences, physics, and chemistry. We also show that the attractiveness of academic careers decreases significantly over the course of the PhD program, despite the fact that advisors strongly encourage academic careers over non-academic careers. Our data provide an empirical basis for common concerns regarding labor market imbalances. Our results also suggest the need for mechanisms that provide PhD applicants with information that allows them to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of pursuing a PhD, as well as for mechanisms that complement the job market advice advisors give to their current students.

Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

2004-01-01

A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

Design and Implementation of an Experimental Cataloging Advisor--Mapper.

Science.gov (United States)

Ercegovac, Zorana; Borko, Harold

1992-01-01

Describes the design of an experimental computer-aided cataloging advisor, Mapper, that was developed to help novice users with the descriptive cataloging of single-sheet maps from U.S. publishers. The human-computer interface is considered, the use of HyperCard is discussed, the knowledge base is explained, and assistance screens are described.…

Workplace injuries and risk reduction practices in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Roslinah; Shaharudin, Rafiza; Omar, Azahadi; Yusoff, Fadhli

2012-01-01

This study on workplace injuries and risk reduction practices was part of the Malaysia National Health Morbidity Survey III (NHMS III) conducted in 2006. This cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted to determine the incidence of workplaces injuries and assess the magnitude of some important risk reduction practices among workers. Data were gathered through face-to-face household interviews using a pre-coded questionnaire. Of the 22 880 eligible respondents, 88·2% (20 180) responded. The incidence rate for injuries at the workplace was 4·9 per 100 (95% CI: 4·6-5·2). The overall proportion of workers who had received occupational safety and health (OSH) training before or within 1 month of starting work was 33·6%. Among respondents who perceived that personal protective equipment (PPE) was required at their workplace, only 38·9% (95% CI: 37·8-39·4) were provided with it by their employers. Further studies are urgently needed to identify reasons for and management of the low uptake of risk reduction practices. This issue needs to be addressed to ensure the safety and health of our working population.

Dissemination of colorectal cancer screening by Filipino American community health advisors: a feasibility study.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Annette E; Danao, Leda L; Bastani, Roshan

2013-07-01

Filipino Americans underutilize life-saving screening tests for colorectal cancer, resulting in late stage of diagnosis and poor survival relative to other racial/ethnic groups. Education regarding colorectal cancer screening and distribution of free fecal occult blood test (FOBT) kits are evidence-based interventions that can significantly increase screening. However, this community will only benefit if the intervention is broadly disseminated. We assessed the feasibility of promoting colorectal cancer screening in Filipino American community settings working with community health advisors, and the practicality of conducting one-on-one or small group education, in addition to passing out free FOBT kits. Twenty community health advisors from 4 organizations engaged in recruitment and education activities with 132 participants. Community health advisors consistently completed screening questionnaires to establish eligibility and kept logs of FOBT distribution. However, they did not consistently record eligible participants who did not consent to participate. Process checklists that indicated what information was covered in each educational session and postsession follow-up logs were partially completed. Almost all participants reported receipt of intervention components and receipt of screening at 4-month follow-up and reported high acceptability of the program. The pilot study established the feasibility of working with community health advisors to promote colorectal cancer screening in Filipino American community settings. Findings informed the design of a dissemination trial that is currently ongoing with regards to monitoring recruitment, intervention implementation and follow-up and allowing flexibility regarding one-on-one or small group education.

Reduction of chemical reaction models

Science.gov (United States)

Frenklach, Michael

1991-01-01

An attempt is made to reconcile the different terminologies pertaining to reduction of chemical reaction models. The approaches considered include global modeling, response modeling, detailed reduction, chemical lumping, and statistical lumping. The advantages and drawbacks of each of these methods are pointed out.

NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

Science.gov (United States)

Trinh, Huu P.; Williams, Hunter; Burnside, Chris

2015-01-01

The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagelberg, Daniel B.

1981-01-01

A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

Perceptions of pre-clerkship medical students and academic advisors about sleep deprivation and its relationship to academic performance: a cross-sectional perspective from Saudi Arabia.

Science.gov (United States)

AlFakhri, Lama; Sarraj, Jumana; Kherallah, Shouq; Kuhail, Khulood; Obeidat, Akef; Abu-Zaid, Ahmed

2015-12-01

The medical student population is believed to be at an increased risk for sleep deprivation. Little is known about students' perceptions towards sleep deprivation and its relationship to academic performance. The aim of study is to explore the perceptions of medical students and their academic advisors about sleep deprivation and its relationship to academic performance. The study took place at Alfaisal University, College of Medicine, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. An online, anonymous, cross-sectional, self-rating survey was administered to first-, third-year students and their academic advisors. Two-tailed Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the mean 5-point Likert scale responses between students according to gender, academic year and cumulative grade point average (cGPA). A total of 259 students and 21 academic advisors participated in the survey (response rates: 70.6 and 84%, respectively). The vast majority of students agreed that sleep deprivation negatively affects academic performance (78.8%) and mood (78.4%). Around 62.2 and 73.7% of students agreed that the demanding medical curriculum and stress of final exams lead to sleep deprivation, respectively. While 36.7% of students voiced the need for incorporation of curricular separate courses about healthy sleep patterns into medical curriculum, a much greater proportion of students (45.9%) expressed interest in extracurricular activities about healthy sleep patterns. Interestingly, only 13.5% of students affirmed that they were counselled about sleep patterns and academic performance by their academic advisors. There were several statistically significant differences of means of students' perceptions according to gender, academic year and cGPA. Despite almost all academic advisors (95.5%) asserted the importance of sleep patterns to academic performance, none (0%) inquired about sleep patterns when counselling students. Nineteen academic advisors (90.5%) recommended incorporation of sleep patterns related

Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City.

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Scott B; Green, Rebekah A; Svekla, Walter

2012-07-01

This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Personality Model in Human Resources Management

OpenAIRE

Jovan Zubovic

2008-01-01

This paper presents the new „Personality model” of managing human resources in an organisation. The model analyses administrative personnel (usually called management) in an organisation and divides them into three core categories: managers, executives and advisors. Unlike traditional models which do not recognise advisors as part of an organisation, this model gives to advisors the same ranking as managers and executives. Model traces 11 categories of personality traits for every employee, r...

Towards improved public awareness for climate related disaster risk reduction in South Africa: A Participatory Development Communication perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tigere Chagutah

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Southern Africa has frequently been struck by damaging climate hazards which increasingly continue to threaten sustainable development efforts. Ominously, climate models predict that the incidence of major ‘wet’ events, such as floods and cyclones will increase in frequency against the background of a changing climate. Unfortunately, local mechanisms for communicating and raising public awareness of the consequent risks and appropriate risk reduction options remain weak. At the core of policy responses to the threat posed by climate related hazards, the South African government has adopted a disaster risk reduction approach to disaster management. This article details how, among many other measures to limit the adverse impacts of natural hazards, South Africa’s National Disaster Management Framework calls for the implementation of effective public awareness activities to increase the knowledge among communities of the risks they face and what risk-minimising actions they can take. Emphasis is laid on the importance of information provision and knowledge building among at-risk communities. Citing established theories and strategies, the author proposes a participatory development communication approach through Development Support Communication strategies for the provision of disaster risk reduction public awareness activities by government and other disaster risk reduction role-players in South Africa. By way of a review of completed studies and literature, the article provides guidance on the planning and execution of successful public communication campaigns and also discusses the constraints of communication campaigns as an intervention for comprehensive disaster risk reduction.

Intelligent data retrieval in the industry experience advisor expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swisshelm, J.D.

1991-01-01

ABB Impell Corporation developed a prototype expert system called the Industry Experience Advisor for Florida Power and Light Company. This expert system assists plant engineers in evaluating design changes against previous nuclear industry experience. Previous experience is in the form of root causes or lessons learned of past events. The root-cause statements were developed from an engineering review of important event documents [US Nuclear Regulatory Commission information notices (INs) and information bulletins (IBs) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations safety evaluation reports and significant operating experience reports]. This paper describes the project that is currently expanding the prototype into a production system for use at a nuclear plant site. The Industry Experience Advisor should be ready for production release by the end of 1991. It will include knowledge of important events through 1990. In 1992 and in each following year, an update will be released adding the previous year's events

A modular real time Operator Advisor expert system for installation on a full function nuclear power plant simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.; Bhatnagar, R.; Maresh, J.L.

1989-01-01

A knowledge-based expert system that uses the Generic Task approach is being developed to serve as an operator Advisor in the control room of a commercial nuclear power plant. Having identified the broad scope tasks performed by an operator in responding to abnormal plant conditions, our research team has modularized the Operator Advisor according to the tasks of (1) monitoring plant parameters, (2) classifying or diagnosing the abnormality, and (3) planning for execution of the procedures for recovery. The operator Advisor uses the Perry Nuclear Power Plant full-scope simulator as the reference system, and is currently being prepared for direct connection to the simulator

Facebook Use between College Resident Advisors' and Their Residents: A Mixed Methods Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kacvinsky, Lauren E; Moreno, Megan A

2014-01-01

Facebook use is nearly ubiquitous among college students. Studies have shown links between Facebook displays of depression or problem drinking and risk of these problems. This project aimed to determine whether Facebook could be used to help Resident Advisors (RAs) identify college students at risk for depression or problem drinking. Interviews were conducted with college freshmen to investigate whether they were Facebook "friends" with their RA. Focus groups were conducted with RAs to determine their views on Facebook friending their dormitory residents and using Facebook to help identify at-risk students. 72 freshmen were interviewed and 25 RAs participated in focus groups; both agreed it is common for RAs and residents to be Facebook friends. RAs commonly noted references to depression and problem drinking on residents' Facebook pages, which often led to in-person discussions with the resident. This study provides support that RAs use Facebook to identify issues that may impact their student residents. RAs emphasized benefits of in-person interactions in order to provide support and obtain additional details about the situation. Universities could consider whether providing RA education about Facebook interactions with residents merits encouragement within their existing RA training programs.

Risk reduction for nonmelanoma skin cancer with childhood sunscreen use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, R.S.; Weinstein, M.C.; Baker, S.G.

1986-01-01

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the principle cause of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin, which are the most frequent tumors occurring in white residents of the United States. Using a mathematical model based on epidemiologic data, we quantified the potential benefits of using a sunscreen with a sun protective factor of 15 and estimate that regular use of such a sunscreen during the first 18 years of life would reduce the lifetime incidence of these tumors by 78%. Additional benefits of sunscreen use during childhood include reduced risk of sunburn, retarding the pace of skin aging, and possible reduction in melanoma risk. We recommend that pediatricians encourage sunscreen use and sun avoidance as a regular part of pediatric preventive health care

Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

The perceived roles and functions of school science subject advisors

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The science subject advisor can play an important role in upgrading ... literature study highlighted practices in the UK and the US that are ... South Africa has recently adopted a strate- ... (North West Province) felt that a solution to their teaching problems ..... teachers, clustering of schools, practical work, cross teaching,.

Training Mentors as Educational Advisors for Adult Learners. Process Manual.

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, Elizabeth W.

Materials used by the director of a project designed to assist key personnel in businesses, industries, and agencies with the educational counseling of their employees are presented. The objectives of the project, "Training Mentors as Educational Advisors of Adult Learners," were to: (1) provide two training sessions in educational…

The App Squad: SLJ's Advisors Weigh in on Kids' Book Apps

Science.gov (United States)

Ishizuka, Kathy

2011-01-01

In this article, "School Library Journal's" ("SLJ") advisors talk about book apps for kids. They discuss what they like, what one should look for in discerning the best for kids and teens, and where this all might be headed.

The figure of the helper advisor in cases of sexual abuse against people with intellectual disabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Almudena MARTORELL CAFRANGA

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the main barriers that people with intellectual disabilities who have suffered sexual abuse have to face when they access the Justice system. Regarding these barriers, the Victim Support Unit for People with Intellectual Disabilities of the Fundación Carmen Pardo-Valcarce proposes the inclusion in the judicial process of a helper advisor. The entry into force in 2015 of the Law 4/2015, in 27 April, the Statute of the crime victim represents an exemplary opportunity to ensure the incorporation of support proposals involving the insertion of the helper advisor in the judicial process in cases where the victim is a person with intellectual disabilities. In this paper we analyse the impact of the helper advisor, with particular emphasis on cases that have been dismissed under instruction.

A comparison of mantle versus involved-field radiotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma: reduction in normal tissue dose and second cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, Eng-Siew; Paul, Narinder; Hodgson, David C; Tran, Tu Huan; Heydarian, Mostafa; Sachs, Rainer K; Tsang, Richard W; Brenner, David J; Pintilie, Melania; Xu, Tony; Chung, June

2007-01-01

Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) survivors who undergo radiotherapy experience increased risks of second cancers (SC) and cardiac sequelae. To reduce such risks, extended-field radiotherapy (RT) for HL has largely been replaced by involved field radiotherapy (IFRT). While it has generally been assumed that IFRT will reduce SC risks, there are few data that quantify the reduction in dose to normal tissues associated with modern RT practice for patients with mediastinal HL, and no estimates of the expected reduction in SC risk. Organ-specific dose-volume histograms (DVH) were generated for 41 patients receiving 35 Gy mantle RT, 35 Gy IFRT, or 20 Gy IFRT, and integrated organ mean doses were compared for the three protocols. Organ-specific SC risk estimates were estimated using a dosimetric risk-modeling approach, analyzing DVH data with quantitative, mechanistic models of radiation-induced cancer. Dose reductions resulted in corresponding reductions in predicted excess relative risks (ERR) for SC induction. Moving from 35 Gy mantle RT to 35 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERR for female breast and lung cancer by approximately 65%, and for male lung cancer by approximately 35%; moving from 35 Gy IFRT to 20 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERRs approximately 40% more. The median reduction in integral dose to the whole heart with the transition to 35 Gy IFRT was 35%, with a smaller (2%) reduction in dose to proximal coronary arteries. There was no significant reduction in thyroid dose. The significant decreases estimated for radiation-induced SC risks associated with modern IFRT provide strong support for the use of IFRT to reduce the late effects of treatment. The approach employed here can provide new insight into the risks associated with contemporary IFRT for HL, and may facilitate the counseling of patients regarding the risks associated with this treatment

Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

2016-03-29

Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Evaluation of HIV Risk Reduction and Intervention Programs via Latent Growth Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jichuan; Siegal, Harvey A.; Falck, Russel S.; Carlson, Robert G.; Rahman, Ahmmed

1999-01-01

Demonstrates how the latent growth model can be applied to the evaluation of programs targeting HIV risk behavior among drug users. Multigroup piecewise latent growth models were fit to longitudinal data with three repeated response measures. Participants were 430 drug users and their sex partners. (SLD)

Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

2014-02-01

To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

[Smoking fewer cigarettes per day may determine a significant risk reduction in developing smoking attributable diseases? Is there a risk reduction for e-cigarette users?].

Science.gov (United States)

Pieri, Luca; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

Among Italian smokers--about 10 millions in 2013--about 600,000 began using electronic cigarettes (e-cigs) in last years. About 10% of e-cig users quitted smoking tobacco, whereas the 90% was dual users. Among them, about three out of four decreased the number of cigarettes smoked per day (cig/day), but did not quit. How many fewer cigarettes a smoker has to smoke to obtain significant health benefits? Is there a threshold? In order to observe a significant 27% reduction in the risk of developing lung cancer, a smoker must reduce the number of cig/day by at least 50%, while for the other smoking-related diseases (acute myocardial infarction - AMI, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases), halving the number of cig/day did not drive to a significant risk reduction. Even smoking 5 cig/day increases the risk of AMI, whereas it significantly lowers the risk of lung cancer. Obviously, quitting smoking is the best choice to highly reduce risks for all smoking-related diseases. Therefore, in order to achieve significant risk reductions, e-cig users should quit smoking as first choice, or, if they feel it is impossible to them, reduce the consumption of traditional cigarettes to less than 5 cig/day.

Soviet Advisors Group in South China and Soviet Union Financing of Gomindan War Planes in 1924

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Александр Геннадьевич Юркевич

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The article dwells on the organization and activities of the Soviet advisors group, which assisted to the South China government of Sun Yatsen, its participation in financing Kuomintang political and military projects. The author pointed out that the main aim of the advisors group efforts was to form new Kuomintang power institutions and to bring its policy and army under control, for all that the tactics of implementation of strategy aim were constantly changing.

Education and training of the shift technical advisor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, E.L.

1981-01-01

This paper discusses the background and current approaches for qualifying the required position of Shift Technical Advisor (STA). Industry positions regarding the regulation are given. Problems associated with meeting the requirement are identified, along with a discussion of other alternatives for upgrading the education level of shift management. Inherent in the discussion is the conclusion that voluntary improvements in the training and education of shift management personnel are more effective than mandatory positions or degree requirements

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

OpenAIRE

Pol, van der, T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

Preferences for breast cancer risk reduction among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers: a discrete-choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liede, Alexander; Mansfield, Carol A; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Price, Melanie A; Snyder, Carrie; Lynch, Henry T; Friedman, Sue; Amelio, Justyna; Posner, Joshua; Narod, Steven A; Lindeman, Geoffrey J; Evans, D Gareth

2017-09-01

Unaffected women who carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations face difficult choices about reducing their breast cancer risk. Understanding their treatment preferences could help us improve patient counseling and inform drug trials. The objective was to explore preferences for various risk-reducing options among women with germline BRCA1/2 mutations using a discrete-choice experiment survey and to compare expressed preferences with actual behaviors. A discrete-choice experiment survey was designed wherein women choose between hypothetical treatments to reduce breast cancer risk. The hypothetical treatments were characterized by the extent of breast cancer risk reduction, treatment duration, impact on fertility, hormone levels, risk of uterine cancer, and ease and mode of administration. Data were analyzed using a random-parameters logit model. Women were also asked to express their preference between surgical and chemoprevention options and to report on their actual risk-reduction actions. Women aged 25-55 years with germline BRCA1/2 mutations who were unaffected with breast or ovarian cancer were recruited through research registries at five clinics and a patient advocacy group. Between January 2015 and March 2016, 622 women completed the survey. Breast cancer risk reduction was the most important consideration expressed, followed by maintaining fertility. Among the subset of women who wished to have children in future, the ability to maintain fertility was the most important factor, followed by the extent of risk reduction. Many more women said they would take a chemoprevention drug than had actually taken chemoprevention. Women with BRCA1/2 mutations indicated strong preferences for breast cancer risk reduction and maintaining fertility. The expressed desire to have a safe chemoprevention drug available to them was not met by current chemoprevention options.

Using Mathematical Modeling and Set-Based Design Principles to Recommend an Existing CVL Design

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND SET-BASED DESIGN PRINCIPLES TO RECOMMEND AN EXISTING CVL DESIGN by William H. Ehlies September 2017 Thesis Advisor...Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE...September 2017 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE USING MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND SET-BASED DESIGN PRINCIPLES

Comparative analysis of the tools 'Retrofit Advisor' and 'EPIQR+' - Final report; Analisi comparativa degli strumenti 'Retrofit Advisor' e 'EPIQR+' - Rapporto finale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pittet, D.; Ghirlanda, L.

2008-07-01

This report represents the final phase of Swiss Federal Office of Energy project 'Strategy for long-term management of city-owned real estate - the case of the City Council of Chiasso'. It contains a comparative analysis of two tools for the evaluation of the potential for retrofitting and refurbishment of buildings (Retrofit Advisor and Epiqr+). By applying the two tools in parallel, it was possible to compare information and data obtained, and also to obtain indications for the evaluation of the usability of the tools. To achieve this, five buildings in the territory of the city of Chiasso were submitted to the tools for analysis. The applications have highlighted the usability of each case study. The ease of use of Retrofit Advisor has allowed the evaluation of each proposed scenario; by using the same reference system, comparable data are obtained (at indication level) to support the choice of the intervention strategy on existing buildings. In addition to the analysis of the current status, the tool Retrofit Advisor supports a structure analysis over three intervention scenarios, namely reparation, renovation, rebuild. Data entry does not require advanced knowledge of construction work, and is limited to basic characteristics. The analysis performed through Epiqr+ is more rigorous, providing a specific and detailed diagnosis on the state of deterioration of each construction element, supported by a series of intervention suggestions. The Epiqr+ tool has furthermore allowed the evaluation (within a precision range of {+-}15%) the cost of reparation/renovation works, and also the thermal energy balance of each building, based on the characteristics of their envelops. On the basis of contents criteria and cost analysis, the approach has allowed the evaluation of different options for the improvement of the buildings, from simple reparation to total rebuild. Estimates are evaluated in terms of cost, of environmental impact, and, in the case of Retrofit

76 FR 18383 - Extension of Sunset Date for Attorney Advisor Program

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-04

... Security Online, at http://www.socialsecurity.gov . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Electronic Version The... SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION 20 CFR Parts 404 and 416 [Docket No. SSA-2009-0048] RIN 0960-AH05 Extension of Sunset Date for Attorney Advisor Program AGENCY: Social Security Administration. ACTION: Final...

77 FR 58593 - Factor Advisors, LLC, et al.; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-21

... Factor Advisors (each, an ``Adviser''), and (b) seek investment returns that correspond to the price and... ``ETF,'' an ``investment company,'' a ``fund,'' or a ``trust.'' All marketing materials that describe... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Investment Company Act Release No. 30204; File No. 812-13934...

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, D. E.

2013-04-01

This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of General Systems Theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the ''state of the system''. The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm. Sagitta in lapidem numquam figitur, interdum resiliens percutit dirigentem. ("An arrow never lodges in a stone: often it recoils upon its sender.") St. John Chrysostom (c. 347-407), Archbishop of Constantinople.

ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunand Kumar

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.

Willingness-to-accept reductions in HIV risks: conditional economic incentives in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Infante, César; Gertler, Paul J.; Bertozzi, Stefano M.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to measure willingness-to-accept (WTA) reductions in risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) using conditional economic incentives (CEI) among men who have sex with men (MSM), including male sex workers (MSW) in Mexico City. A survey experiment was conducted with 1,745 MSM and MSW (18-25 years of age) who received incentive offers to decide first whether to accept monthly prevention talks and STI testing; and then a second set of offers to accept to stay free of STIs (verified by quarterly biological testing). The survey used random-starting-point and iterative offers. WTA was estimated with a maximum likelihood double-bounded dichotomous choice model. The average acceptance probabilities were: 73.9% for the monthly model, and 80.4% for the quarterly model. The incentive-elasticity of participation in the monthly model was 0.222, and it was 0.515 in the quarterly model. For a combination program with monthly prevention talks, and staying free of curable STI, the implied WTA was USD$288 per person per year, but it was lower for MSW: USD$156 per person per year. Thus, some of the populations at highest risk of HIV infection (MSM & MSW) seem well disposed to participate in a CEI program for HIV and STI prevention in Mexico. The average willingness-to-accept estimate is within the range of feasible allocations for prevention in the local context. Given the potential impact, Mexico, a leader in conditional cash transfers for human development and poverty reduction, could extend that successful model for targeted HIV/STI prevention. PMID:23377757

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

2016-01-01

We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Najm, Habib

2016-01-05

We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

2012-01-01

As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

The CBT Advisor: An Expert System Program for Making Decisions about CBT.

Science.gov (United States)

Kearsley, Greg

1985-01-01

Discusses structure, credibility, and use of the Computer Based Training (CBT) Advisor, an expert system designed to help managers make judgements about course selection, system selection, cost/benefits, development effort, and probable success of CBT projects. (MBR)

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

2011-03-01

Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

Ties That Bind: Academic Advisors as Agents of Student Relationship Management

Science.gov (United States)

Vianden, Jörg

2016-01-01

To affect college retention, academic advisors should act as agents of student relationship management by strengthening the connection between students and their institutions. Satisfaction and dissatisfaction with academic advising as perceived by 29 college students at 3 midwestern comprehensive institutions are described. Discussion is framed in…

75 FR 33857 - DWS Advisor Funds, et al.; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-15

...''). Applicants state that the DWS Funds of Funds will offer investors a range of investment objectives generally... investment objectives and policies of the Unaffiliated Fund; (b) how the performance of securities purchased... Advisor Funds, et al.; Notice of Application June 9, 2010. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange Commission...

Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

The process of candidates choose graduate programs: an analysis from the advisor perspective; O processo de escolha de candidatos a programas de Pos-Graduacao: uma analise a partir da perspectiva do orientador

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nascimento, Ridnal Joao do

2016-11-01

This study aims to identify the criteria used by advisors in the decision-making on whether to accept a candidate for mentoring in a postgraduate strictu sensu program and examines possible relationships between this decision and their scientific production and mentees evasion. In order to meet these goals one seeks to identify and analyze the selection criteria of candidates for the master's and doctorate programs at an institution; in this case, the Energy and Nuclear Research Institute - IPEN. More specifically, one seeks to study similarities and differences between those criteria among the advisors; find out whether there is a correlation between the selection criteria and the advisors characteristics (Profile); identify the selection process used by advisors and point out which are the motivations that lead to evasion according to their point of view. To meet these challenges, as the starting point of the research, a conceptual model was designed in order to form the basis for the preparation of the script for the interviews with open-ended questions as to identify the selection criteria used by a small group of advisors with a predefined profile. From that point, based on the responses obtained in interviews, the survey was expanded to all advisors working in the IPEN Postgraduate program by implementing an online survey using Google Docs app for data collection. These data were then analyzed and reorganized according to an operational model of research that would guide the analysis by structural equation modeling (SEM) by means of the SmartPLS software, in order to identify the presence or absence of correlation between the criteria adopted by the advisors and their academic production and the evasion of their mentees, for that one relied on studies in: Bazerman and Moore (2010); Cohen (1988); Hair Jr. et al (2009); Hansmann and Ringle (2004); Martins (1997); Ringle, C.; Silva and Bido (2014); Sousa (2007); Sousa and Yu (2014); Torres (2014); Yu (2011

Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarang Kim

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

Internet-based intervention for smoking cessation (StopAdvisor) in people with low and high socioeconomic status: a randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Jamie; Michie, Susan; Geraghty, Adam W A; Yardley, Lucy; Gardner, Benjamin; Shahab, Lion; Stapleton, John A; West, Robert

2014-12-01

groups for the primary (237 [10%] vs 220 [10%] participants; relative risk [RR] 1·06, 95% CI 0·89-1·27; p=0·49) and the secondary (358 [15%] vs 332 [15%] participants; 1·06, 0·93-1·22; p=0·37) outcomes; however, the intervention effect differed across socioeconomic status subsamples (1·44, 0·99-2·09; p=0·0562 and 1·37, 1·02-1·84; p=0·0360, respectively). StopAdvisor helped participants with low socioeconomic status stop smoking compared with the information-only website (primary outcome: 90 [8%] of 1088 vs 64 [6%] of 1054 participants; RR 1·36, 95% CI 1·00-1·86; p=0·0499; secondary outcome: 136 [13%] vs 100 [10%] participants; 1·32, 1·03-1·68, p=0·0267), but did not improve cessation rates in those with high socioeconomic status (147 [12%] of 1233 vs 156 [13%] of 1238 participants; 0·95, 0·77-1·17; p=0·61 and 222 [18%] vs 232 [19%] participants; 0·96, 0·81-1·13, p=0·64, respectively). StopAdvisor was more effective than an information-only website in smokers of low, but not high, socioeconomic status. StopAdvisor could be implemented easily and made freely available, which would probably improve the success rates of smokers with low socioeconomic status who are seeking online support. National Prevention Research Initiative. Copyright © 2014 Brown et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-12-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

An intelligent, knowledge-based multiple criteria decision making advisor for systems design

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yongchang

In systems engineering, design and operation of systems are two main problems which always attract researcher's attentions. The accomplishment of activities in these problems often requires proper decisions to be made so that the desired goal can be achieved, thus, decision making needs to be carefully fulfilled in the design and operation of systems. Design is a decision making process which permeates through out the design process, and is at the core of all design activities. In modern aircraft design, more and more attention is paid to the conceptual and preliminary design phases so as to increase the odds of choosing a design that will ultimately be successful at the completion of the design process, therefore, decisions made during these early design stages play a critical role in determining the success of a design. Since aerospace systems are complex systems with interacting disciplines and technologies, the Decision Makers (DMs) dealing with such design problems are involved in balancing the multiple, potentially conflicting attributes/criteria, transforming a large amount of customer supplied guidelines into a solidly defined set of requirement definitions. Thus, one could state with confidence that modern aerospace system design is a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. A variety of existing decision making methods are available to deal with this type of decision problems. The selection of the most appropriate decision making method is of particular importance since inappropriate decision methods are likely causes of misleading engineering design decisions. With no sufficient knowledge about each of the methods, it is usually difficult for the DMs to find an appropriate analytical model capable of solving their problems. In addition, with the complexity of the decision problem and the demand for more capable methods increasing, new decision making methods are emerging with time. These various methods exacerbate the difficulty of the selection

76 FR 70779 - President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-15

... University of Michigan North Campus Research Complex, 2800 Plymouth Road, Building 18, Ann Arbor, MI 48109... the University of Michigan North Research Complex from 8:30 a.m. to 2:45 p.m. on December 12, 2011... OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology...

Pengaruh Brand Credibility Terhadap Information Efficiency Dan Risk Reduction, Serta Dampaknya Atas Repurchase Intention

OpenAIRE

Faisal, Aekram

2015-01-01

This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...

Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

2018-04-01

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

Science.gov (United States)

Kogi, K

2006-01-01

Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

77 FR 10736 - President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST)

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-23

... an overview of the Department of Agriculture's science, technology, and innovation activities, and... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) AGENCY... Science and Technology (PCAST), and describes the functions of the Council. Notice of this meeting is...

Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

2005-01-01

Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Y.T.; Hedtke, R.; Fike, D.; Diniz, J.

1996-01-01

The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

Social Media Use and Sexual Risk Reduction Behavior Among Minority Youth: Seeking Safe Sex Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Robin; Gilliard-Matthews, Stacia; Dunaev, Jamie; Todhunter-Reid, Abigail; Brawner, Bridgette; Stewart, Jennifer

Sexual health is an important area of study-particularly for minority youth and youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The purpose of the research was to examine the sources of sexual health information associated with youth adopting sexual risk reduction behaviors. Data collection took place in a small city in the Northeastern United States using cross-sectional behavioral surveys and modified venue-based sampling. Participants included 249 African American and Latino youth aged 13-24. Participants reported their sources of information about contraception and human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted disease, such as TV/movies, parents, social media; their intentions to have sex; and condom and contraception use during their last sexual activity. Social media use, past pregnancy experience, past sexual history, age, and gender were also measured. Standard tests of bivariate association (chi-square and F tests) were used to examine initial associations between sexual risk reduction behavior and exposure to sexual risk reduction information on social media. Logistic regression models were used to test multivariate relationships between information sources and sexual risk reduction behavior. Youth who were exposed to sexual health messages on social media were 2.69 times (p < .05) and 2.49 times (p < .08) more likely to have used contraception or a condom at last intercourse, respectively. Parents, schools, or traditional media as information sources were not significantly associated with contractive use or condom use at last intercourse. Youth sexual behavior is increasingly informed by social media messages. Health practitioners should utilize social media as an important health promotion tool.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John

2009-01-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Collins

2009-09-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

A cluster randomized trial of alcohol prevention in small businesses: a cascade model of help seeking and risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, G Shawn; Bennett, Joel B

2015-01-01

The current study adapted two workplace substance abuse prevention programs and tested a conceptual model of workplace training effects on help seeking and alcohol consumption. Questionnaires were collected 1 month before, 1 month after, and 6 months within a cluster randomized field experiment. Texas small businesses in construction, transportation, and service industries. A total of 1510 employees from 45 businesses were randomly assigned to receive no training or one of the interventions. The interventions were 4-hour on-the-job classroom trainings that encouraged healthy lifestyles and seeking professional help (e.g., from the Employee Assistance Program [EAP]). The Team Awareness Program focused on peer referral and team building. The Choices in Health Promotion Program delivered various health topics based on a needs assessment. Questionnaires measured help-seeking attitudes and behavior, frequency of drinking alcohol, and job-related incidents. Mixed-model repeated-measures analyses of covariance were computed. Relative to the control group, training was associated with significantly greater reductions in drinking frequency, willingness to seek help, and seeking help from the EAP. After including help-seeking attitudes as a covariate, the correlation between training and help seeking becomes nonsignificant. Help-seeking behavior was not correlated with drinking frequency. Training improved help-seeking attitudes and behaviors and decreased alcohol risks. The reductions in drinking alcohol were directly correlated with training and independent from help seeking.

Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

Science.gov (United States)

This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

Teaching medical students cancer risk reduction nutrition counseling using a multimedia program.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolasa, K M; Jobe, A C; Miller, M G; Clay, M C

1999-03-01

There are many barriers to medical students receiving education about the linkage between nutrition and cancer, including the lack of role models and teachers and insufficient curricular time. We tested the use of a multimedia program as a possible solution to teaching diet-risk assessment and counseling skills. Images of Cancer Prevention, The Nutrition Link is a CD-ROM multimedia program that was developed and evaluated by 147 medical students. Pre-use and post-use surveys, computer log files, and recorded response sessions were used to determine the learner's 1) ease in using the program, 2) attitudes about the treatment of the content, 3) knowledge gain, and 4) attitudes about the role of physicians in nutrition assessment and counseling for cancer risk reduction. Students improved their knowledge of dietary guidelines for cancer risk reduction and made positive changes in their attitudes toward the role of physicians in dietary counseling. However, most students reported that they would not use the program unless it was required that they do so. The multimedia program was successful; it affected students' knowledge and attitudes concerning nutrition as a modifiable risk factor for some cancers. In addition, the design and delivery of the multimedia product was positively reviewed by the students for ease of access, message design, individualized instruction, and flexibility. Despite these favorable ratings, it was not clear that students would use the program unless required to do so.

Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

2016-08-22

This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses in these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.

Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spinelli, J.J.; Demers, P.A.; Le, N.D.; Friesen, M.D.; Lorenzi, M.F.; Fang, R.; Gallagher, R.P. [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

2006-09-15

A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends < 0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP < 0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend < 0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend < 0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend < 0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

The treatment implementation advisor: a component of the GypsES project

Science.gov (United States)

Michael C. Saunders; Michael A. Foster

1991-01-01

The treatment implementation advisor is one of the knowledge based advisory modules of GypsES, a knowledge system environment for decision support in gypsy moth management. Its function is to provide detailed advice on intervention tactics for gypsy moth: e.g. aerial and ground application of insecticides and microbials, inundative or augmentative releases of...

A Pervasive Social Networking Application: I-NFC enabled Florist Smart Advisor

Science.gov (United States)

Swee Wen, Khoo; Mahinderjit Singh, Manmeet

2016-11-01

Location based service is an information and entertainment service, accessible with mobile devices through the mobile network and utilizing the ability to make use of the geographical position of the mobile device. NFC location based service is using one of the modes of NFC such as peer-to-peer, reader/writer, and card emulation to obtain the information of the object and then get the location of the object. In this paper, the proposed solution is I- NFC-enabled Pervasive Social Networking apps for florists. It combines the NFC location based service with Online Social Network (OSN). In addition, a smart advisor in the system to provide output in making their own decision while purchasing products.The development of the system demonstrates that a designed commerce site is provided which enable a communication between NFC-enabled smartphone, NFC-enabled application and OSN. GPS functionalities also implemented to provide map and location of business services. Smart advisor also designed to provide information for users who do not have ideas what to purchase.

Evaluation of an HIV-risk reduction programme for first-year ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Results indicated that HIV-related knowledge; condom knowledge and risk perception were enhanced by the HIV- related risk reduction programme. However, there is a need for improvement, especially with regard to attitudes towards condoms since some students still had negative attitudes even after the intervention ...

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, Tom

2013-10-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can

POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

2001-09-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

77 FR 65593 - PNC Capital Advisors, LLC, et al.; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-29

... registered open-end management investment companies that operate as ``funds of funds'' to acquire shares of.... Applicants: PNC Capital Advisors, LLC (``Adviser'') and PNC Funds and PNC Advantage Funds (each a ``Trust... statutory trust. Each Trust is comprised of separate series that pursue distinct investment objectives and...

A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

2010-11-01

Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

2015-06-01

In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

2017-01-01

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

Earth observation for disaster risk reduction in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rafiq, L.

2012-01-01

This thesis investigates the role of Earth Observation (EO) for disaster risk reduction for Pakistan. It demonstrates that significant improvements are possible through the utilization of EO data for natural disaster risk reduction activities in Pakistan. In this thesis, a multi hazard approach is proposed in order to identify vulnerability and risk at district level in Pakistan. In particular, a methodology for ranking hazards, vulnerabilities and risks based on Delphi methods is developed. This method is implemented and the results are mapped for four selected hazards i.e., earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts. Based on the final risk rankings, the potential of EO is explored with a focus on vulnerability assessment through detailed analysis of two case studies i.e.; Flood and Cyclone/Tsunami. The study also reviews and evaluates the institutional framework of the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in order to identify existing gaps and address them in view of modern technology being used globally. Results reveal that these gaps are mainly related to policies, coordination and communication of different stakeholders at the national level. The work also reviews the available Early Warning System (EWS) in Pakistan and particularly its usage during disasters. Within the context of EWS, multi-sensor satellite data have been utilized for the analysis of structure of an Arabian Sea tropical Cyclone. Results of this focal study provide useful information for operational analysis and forecasting as well as for designing disaster mitigation measures. This information may also play a major role in the development of cyclone warning strategies in the future. (author)

Assessment of reduction in perception of nuclear risk related to perception of environmental risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

2009-01-01

This work presents a bibliographic research accomplished to evaluate the matter of reduction in risk perception, on people in general, that nuclear energy can show, for generation of electric power, face to perception of risk associated to environmental questions, as the global warming, from greenhouse effect, addressing the matter to the relevance of public acceptance for the development of new technologies. (author)

Model reduction of parametrized systems

CERN Document Server

Ohlberger, Mario; Patera, Anthony; Rozza, Gianluigi; Urban, Karsten

2017-01-01

The special volume offers a global guide to new concepts and approaches concerning the following topics: reduced basis methods, proper orthogonal decomposition, proper generalized decomposition, approximation theory related to model reduction, learning theory and compressed sensing, stochastic and high-dimensional problems, system-theoretic methods, nonlinear model reduction, reduction of coupled problems/multiphysics, optimization and optimal control, state estimation and control, reduced order models and domain decomposition methods, Krylov-subspace and interpolatory methods, and applications to real industrial and complex problems. The book represents the state of the art in the development of reduced order methods. It contains contributions from internationally respected experts, guaranteeing a wide range of expertise and topics. Further, it reflects an important effor t, carried out over the last 12 years, to build a growing research community in this field. Though not a textbook, some of the chapters ca...

Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nnamdi G. Iloka

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Indigenous knowledge is valuable knowledge that has helped local communities all over the world survive for generations. This knowledge originates from the interaction between members of the community and the environment in which they live. Although much has been written about indigenous knowledge, its documentation in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change in Africa has been very limited. The wealth of this knowledge has not been well-recognised in the disaster risk reduction field, as policy-makers still rely on mitigation strategies based on scientific knowledge. Colonialism and lack of proper documentation of indigenous knowledge are some of the contributing factors to this. Ignoring the importance of understanding adaptive strategies of the local people has led to failed projects. Understanding how local people in Africa have managed to survive and adapt for generations, before the arrival of Western education, may be the key to developing sustainable policies to mitigate future challenges. Literature used in this article, obtained from the books, papers and publications of various experts in the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, indigenous knowledge and adaptation, highlight the need for more interest to be shown in indigenous knowledge, especially in the developing country context. This would lead to better strategies which originate from the community level but would aim for overall sustainable development in Africa.

Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA)

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Yoon

2016-01-01

Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) is a decision support tool to assist airline ramp controllers and ATC tower controllers to manage traffic on the airport surface to significantly improve efficiency and predictability in surface operations. The core function of the tool is the runway scheduler which generates an optimal solution for runway sequence and schedule of departure aircraft, which would minimize system delay and maximize runway throughput. The presentation also discusses the latest status of NASA's current surface research through a collaboration with an airline partner, where a tool is developed for airline ramp operators to assist departure pushback operations. The presentation describes the concept of the SARDA tool and results from human-in-the-loop simulations conducted in 2012 for Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport and 2014 for Charlotte airport ramp tower.

Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

2011-01-01

A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

Perceptions of pre-clerkship medical students and academic advisors about sleep deprivation and its relationship to academic performance: a cross-sectional perspective from Saudi Arabia

OpenAIRE

AlFakhri, Lama; Sarraj, Jumana; Kherallah, Shouq; Kuhail, Khulood; Obeidat, Akef; Abu-Zaid, Ahmed

2015-01-01

Background The medical student population is believed to be at an increased risk for sleep deprivation. Little is known about students? perceptions towards sleep deprivation and its relationship to academic performance. The aim of study is to explore the perceptions of medical students and their academic advisors about sleep deprivation and its relationship to academic performance. Methods The study took place at Alfaisal University, College of Medicine, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. An online, anony...

The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

2016-12-01

An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the

The air emissions risk assessment model (AERAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gratt, L.B.

1991-01-01

AERAM is an environmental analysis and power generation station investment decision support tool. AERAM calculates the public health risk (in terms of the lifetime cancers) in the nearby population from pollutants released into the air. AERAM consists of four main subroutines: Emissions, Air, Exposure and Risk. The Emission subroutine uses power plant parameters to calculate the expected release of the pollutants. A coal-fired and oil-fired power plant are currently available. A gas-fired plant model is under preparation. The release of the pollutants into the air is followed by their dispersal in the environment. The dispersion in the Air Subroutine uses the Environmental Protection Agency's model, Industrial Source Complex-Long Term. Additional dispersion models (Industrial Source Complex - Short Term and Cooling Tower Drift) are being implemented for future AERAM versions. The Expose Subroutine uses the ambient concentrations to compute population exposures for the pollutants of concern. The exposures are used with corresponding dose-response model in the Risk Subroutine to estimate both the total population risk and individual risk. The risk for the dispersion receptor-population centroid for the maximum concentration is also calculated for regulatory-population purposes. In addition, automated interfaces with AirTox (an air risk decision model) have been implemented to extend AERAM's steady-state single solution to the decision-under-uncertainty domain. AERAM was used for public health risks, the investment decision for additional pollution control systems based on health risk reductions, and the economics of fuel vs. health risk tradeoffs. AERAM provides that state-of-the-art capability for evaluating the public health impact airborne toxic substances in response to regulations and public concern

Substance Use and Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention: A Novel Model for Treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer H. Olson-Madden

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI and substance use disorders (SUDs frequently co-occur. Individuals with histories of alcohol or other drug use are at greater risk for sustaining TBI, and individuals with TBI frequently misuse substances before and after injury. Further, a growing body of literature supports the relationship between comorbid histories of mild TBI (mTBI and SUDs and negative outcomes. Alcohol and other drug use are strongly associated with risk taking. Disinhibition, impaired executive function, and/or impulsivity as a result of mTBI also contribute to an individual’s proclivity towards risk-taking. Risk-taking behavior may therefore, be a direct result of SUD and/or history of mTBI, and risky behaviors may predispose individuals for subsequent injury or continued use of substances. Based on these findings, evaluation of risk-taking behavior associated with the co-occurrence of SUD and mTBI should be a standard clinical practice. Interventions aimed at reducing risky behavior among members of this population may assist in decreasing negative outcomes. A novel intervention (Substance Use and Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention (STRRP for reducing and preventing risky behaviors among individuals with co-occurring mTBI and SUD is presented. Areas for further research are discussed.

Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry N. Bang

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

Suicide risk reduction in youths with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prescribed methylphenidate: A Taiwan nationwide population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Sophie Hsin-Yi; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Liao, Yin-To; Lin, Tzu-Chin; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Kelsen, Brent A; Wang, Tsu-Nai; Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung

2018-01-01

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) youths have increased suicide risk. Nevertheless, the beneficial effects of methylphenidate (MPH) on suicide attempt have received relatively little attention. To investigate the MPH usage and the risk of suicide attempt among ADHD youths. We identified 84,898 youths less than 18 years old with ADHD diagnosis between 1997 and 2013 from National Health Insurance, and examined whether MPH use affected suicide attempt risk using Cox proportional-hazards models. Among ADHD youths, reduction of suicide risk was found in patients prescribed 90-180days of MPH after adjusting for confounding factors (hazard ratio (HR): 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.19-0.90) and a greater reduction in those prescribed more than 180days of MPH (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.17-0.48). We observed a 59% suicide attempt risk reduction among ADHD youths prescribed between 90 and 180days and a 72% risk reduction in those prescribed more than 180days of MPH. The protective benefit observed by the group prescribed MPH for longer duration underscores the importance of psychoeducation and compliance enhancement as part of ADHD management. Indication bias is identified as a limitation of this study, and future self-case control study to investigate the association between suicide attempt and ADHD medication is suggested. This nationwide population-based cohort study showed that among ADHD youths, reduction of suicide risk was observed in patients prescribed MPH for duration 90days and longer, underscoring the importance of appropriate ADHD pharmacotherapy and enhancing drug compliance. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

2014-05-01

We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moderation and Mediation of an Efficacious Sexual Risk-Reduction Intervention for South African Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

O’Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B.; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Bellamy, Scarlett; Ngwane, Zolani; Icard, Larry

2015-01-01

Background “Let Us Protect Our Future” is a sexual risk-reduction intervention for sixth-grade adolescents in South Africa. Tested in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, the intervention significantly reduced self-reported intercourse and unprotected intercourse during a 12-month follow-up period. Purpose The present analyses were conducted to identify moderators of the intervention’s efficacy as well as which theory-based variables mediated the intervention’s effects. Methods: Intervention efficacy over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups was tested using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Results Living with their father in the home, parental strictness, and religiosity moderated the efficacy of the intervention in reducing unprotected intercourse. Self-efficacy to avoid risky situations and expected parental disapproval of their having intercourse, derived from Social Cognitive Theory, significantly mediated the intervention’s effect on abstinence. Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate that Social Cognitive variables mediate the efficacy of a sexual risk-reduction intervention among South African adolescents. PMID:22618963

Graduate Students' Perceptions of Their Advisors: Is There Systematic Disadvantage in Mentorship?

Science.gov (United States)

Noy, Shiri; Ray, Rashawn

2012-01-01

We explore how race and gender shape graduate students' perceptions of their advisors. We find evidence that women of color and students in the biological/physical sciences report significantly less support than other groups. Our findings speak to the utility of the intersectionality framework for examining interpersonal relations in higher…

Exploring Inner Speech as a Psycho-Educational Resource for Language Learning Advisors

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, Tanya M.

2018-01-01

The analysis of advising sessions has recognized common standards of the profession in areas such as advising skills employed and non-verbal communicative practices. There are however numerous variations in advisor behavior due to differences in cognitive processes. This study used a stimulated recall approach to identify the content of inner…

Aspects Fostering the Programming of Today's College Radio Station: The Advisor's Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauls, Samuel J.

To help ascertain leadership, guidance, and capabilities of the station advisor (those who foster the efforts of their student staffs), this paper provides an overview of programming elements discussing such topics as programming philosophy, general formats, and legal and ethical issues. It states that those advising the campus radio station can…

Acute Myocardial Infarction Readmission Risk Prediction Models: A Systematic Review of Model Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Lauren N; Makam, Anil N; Darden, Douglas; Mayo, Helen; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A; Nguyen, Oanh Kieu

2018-01-01

Hospitals are subject to federal financial penalties for excessive 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prospectively identifying patients hospitalized with AMI at high risk for readmission could help prevent 30-day readmissions by enabling targeted interventions. However, the performance of AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models is unknown. We systematically searched the published literature through March 2017 for studies of risk prediction models for 30-day hospital readmission among adults with AMI. We identified 11 studies of 18 unique risk prediction models across diverse settings primarily in the United States, of which 16 models were specific to AMI. The median overall observed all-cause 30-day readmission rate across studies was 16.3% (range, 10.6%-21.0%). Six models were based on administrative data; 4 on electronic health record data; 3 on clinical hospital data; and 5 on cardiac registry data. Models included 7 to 37 predictors, of which demographics, comorbidities, and utilization metrics were the most frequently included domains. Most models, including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services AMI administrative model, had modest discrimination (median C statistic, 0.65; range, 0.53-0.79). Of the 16 reported AMI-specific models, only 8 models were assessed in a validation cohort, limiting generalizability. Observed risk-stratified readmission rates ranged from 3.0% among the lowest-risk individuals to 43.0% among the highest-risk individuals, suggesting good risk stratification across all models. Current AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models have modest predictive ability and uncertain generalizability given methodological limitations. No existing models provide actionable information in real time to enable early identification and risk-stratification of patients with AMI before hospital discharge, a functionality needed to optimize the potential effectiveness of readmission reduction interventions

Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk - Roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust

Science.gov (United States)

Viglione, Alberto; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Brandimarte, Luigia; Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Salinas, José Luis; Scolobig, Anna; Blöschl, Günter

2014-10-01

The risk coping culture of a community plays a major role in the development of urban floodplains. In this paper we analyse, in a conceptual way, the interplay of community risk coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. We particularly focus on three aspects: (i) collective memory, i.e., the capacity of the community to keep risk awareness high; (ii) risk-taking attitude, i.e., the amount of risk the community is collectively willing to be exposed to; and (iii) trust of the community in risk reduction measures. To this end, we use a dynamic model that represents the feedback between the hydrological and social system components. Model results indicate that, on the one hand, by under perceiving the risk of flooding (because of short collective memory and too much trust in flood protection structures) in combination with a high risk-taking attitude, community development is severely limited because of high damages caused by flooding. On the other hand, overestimation of risk (long memory and lack of trust in flood protection structures) leads to lost economic opportunities and recession. There are many scenarios of favourable development resulting from a trade-off between collective memory and trust in risk reduction measures combined with a low to moderate risk-taking attitude. Interestingly, the model gives rise to situations in which the development of the community in the floodplain is path dependent, i.e., the history of flooding may lead to community growth or recession.

The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

2016-09-01

Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

2013-01-01

There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process.

Nonlinear Model Reduction for RTCVD

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Newman, Andrew J; Krishnaprasad, P. S

1998-01-01

...) for semiconductor manufacturing. They focus on model reduction for the ordinary differential equation model describing heat transfer to, from, and within a semiconductor wafer in the RTCVD chamber...

AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF DIVERSIFIED MENTORING RELATIONSHIPS AMONG GRADUATE STUDENTS AND THEIR ADVISORS IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS FIELDS

OpenAIRE

Bodden, Krystin R.

2014-01-01

Minorities and women continue to be underrepresented in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. In graduate education, factors such as racism, prejudice, discrimination, sexism, stereotypes, tokenism, and a lack of role models can all plague students and contribute to uncompleted degrees and non-entrance into STEM fields. One of the tools being used to combat these barriers is effective mentoring. Graduate students and their advisors generally have close working relat...

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants: What have we learned from experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, J.; Pages, P.

1984-01-01

Within the field of risk management techniques, cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now recognized as an adequate method for evaluating and defining the optimal allocation of protection and safety resources within large industrial systems. The paper considers some of the issues that arise in connection with cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power stations. Particular attention is called to both the interdependence between criteria that characterize risk reduction problems and the resulting aggregation and weighting procedures needed when the multidimensionality of criteria is explicitly taken into account. The discussion of these problems is illustrated with results of case studies on both public and occupational risk reduction at French PWRs during normal operation. (author)

Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Per Becker

2013-01-01

Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

40 CFR 35.4190 - How does my group identify a qualified technical advisor?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How does my group identify a qualified technical advisor? 35.4190 Section 35.4190 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS...: (1) Demonstrated knowledge of hazardous or toxic waste issues, relocation issues, redevelopment...

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

1985-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

Roofline Analysis in the Intel® Advisor to Deliver Optimized Performance for applications on Intel® Xeon Phi™ Processor

OpenAIRE

Koskela, TS; Lobet, M

2017-01-01

In this session we show, in two case studies, how the roofline feature of Intel Advisor has been utilized to optimize the performance of kernels of the XGC1 and PICSAR codes in preparation for Intel Knights Landing architecture. The impact of the implemented optimizations and the benefits of using the automatic roofline feature of Intel Advisor to study performance of large applications will be presented. This demonstrates an effective optimization strategy that has enabled these science appl...

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, James

2012-01-01

In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, James

2012-06-21

In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

Science.gov (United States)

Parkash Gupta, Surya

2015-04-01

The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Karran A; Epstein, David H; Mezghanni, Mustapha; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Reamer, David; Agage, Daniel; Preston, Kenzie L

2013-01-01

We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR) intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability "as is" in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

Architects, Captains, and Dreamers: Creating Advisor Roles that Foster Youth-Adult Partnerships

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, Dana; Lewis, Tiffanie; Sanders, Felicia

2013-01-01

While research has documented the many ways in which student voice can enable educational change, the process of how adults can help to enable student voice is less clear. This article examines how adults new to working as advisors of student voice initiatives begin to develop partnerships with young people. Using a Youth-Adult Partnership…

Formal Process Modeling to Improve Human Decision-Making in Test and Evaluation Acoustic Range Control

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-01

MODELING TO IMPROVE HUMAN DECISION-MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL by William Carlson September 2017 Thesis Advisor...the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT...MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) William Carlson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

Geographic exposure risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in US blood donors: a risk-ranking model to evaluate alternative donor-deferral policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hong; Huang, Yin; Gregori, Luisa; Asher, David M; Bui, Travis; Forshee, Richard A; Anderson, Steven A

2017-04-01

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has been transmitted by blood transfusion (TTvCJD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends deferring blood donors who resided in or traveled to 30 European countries where they may have been exposed to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) through beef consumption. Those recommendations warrant re-evaluation, because new cases of BSE and vCJD have markedly abated. The FDA developed a risk-ranking model to calculate the geographic vCJD risk using country-specific case rates and person-years of exposure of US blood donors. We used the reported country vCJD case rates, when available, or imputed vCJD case rates from reported BSE and UK beef exports during the risk period. We estimated the risk reduction and donor loss should the deferral be restricted to a few high-risk countries. We also estimated additional risk reduction by leukocyte reduction (LR) of red blood cells (RBCs). The United Kingdom, Ireland, and France had the greatest vCJD risk, contributing approximately 95% of the total risk. The model estimated that deferring US donors who spent extended periods of time in these three countries, combined with currently voluntary LR (95% of RBC units), would reduce the vCJD risk by 89.3%, a reduction similar to that achieved under the current policy (89.8%). Limiting deferrals to exposure in these three countries would potentially allow donations from an additional 100,000 donors who are currently deferred. Our analysis suggests that a deferral option focusing on the three highest risk countries would achieve a level of blood safety similar to that achieved by the current policy. © 2016 AABB.

The Shadow of Muhammad: Developing a Charismatic Leadership Model for the Islamic World

Science.gov (United States)

2002-06-01

leadership and specific “type” of leader in the Islamic world. It is a work of synthesis in which a theory about one form of successful Islamic...DEVELOPING A CHARISMATIC LEADERSHIP MODEL FOR THE ISLAMIC WORLD by Edward W. Kostrzebski June 2002 Thesis Advisor: Anna Simons...Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1

Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

2014-01-01

As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

LDRD report nonlinear model reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Segalman, D.; Heinstein, M.

1997-09-01

The very general problem of model reduction of nonlinear systems was made tractable by focusing on the very large subclass consisting of linear subsystems connected by nonlinear interfaces. Such problems constitute a large part of the nonlinear structural problems encountered in addressing the Sandia missions. A synthesis approach to this class of problems was developed consisting of: detailed modeling of the interface mechanics; collapsing the interface simulation results into simple nonlinear interface models; constructing system models by assembling model approximations of the linear subsystems and the nonlinear interface models. These system models, though nonlinear, would have very few degrees of freedom. A paradigm problem, that of machine tool vibration, was selected for application of the reduction approach outlined above. Research results achieved along the way as well as the overall modeling of a specific machine tool have been very encouraging. In order to confirm the interface models resulting from simulation, it was necessary to develop techniques to deduce interface mechanics from experimental data collected from the overall nonlinear structure. A program to develop such techniques was also pursued with good success.

A Group Intervention for HIV/STI Risk Reduction among Indian Couples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritu Nehra

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: HIV in India is transmitted primarily by heterosexual contact. The present study sought to test the feasibility of a group HIV/STI risk reduction intervention among heterosexual couples in India. Methods: Focus groups and key informant interviews were used in 2008 to culturally tailor the intervention. Thirty sexually active and HIV/STI negative couples were enrolled and assessed regarding risk behavior and sexual barrier acceptability. Gender-concordant group sessions used cognitive behavioral strategies for HIV/STI prevention. Results: At baseline, male condom use was low (36%; no participants reported use of female condoms or vaginal gels. HIV knowledge was low; women had more HIV knowledge and more positive attitudes towards condom use than men. Post-intervention, willingness to use all barrier products (t = 10.0, P< .001 and intentions to avoid risk behavior increased (t = 5.62, P< .001. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of utilizing a group intervention to enhance HIV/STI risk reduction among Indian couples.

Brief Communication: The dark side of risk and crisis communication: legal conflicts and responsibility allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Scolobig, A.

2015-06-01

Inadequate, misinterpreted, or missing risk and crisis communication may be a reason for practitioners, and sometimes science advisors, to become the subjects of criminal investigations. This work discusses the legal consequences of inadequate risk communication in these situations. After presenting some cases, the discussion focuses on three critical issues: the development of effective communication protocols; the role, tasks, and responsibilities of science advisors; and the collateral effects of practitioners' defensive behaviours. For example, if the avoidance of personal liability becomes a primary objective for practitioners, it may clash with other objectives, such as the protection of vulnerable communities or the transparency of decision making. The conclusion presents some ideas for future research on the legal aspects of risk communication.

Sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandor, Abdullah; Kaltenthaler, Eva; Higgins, Agnes; Lorimer, Karen; Smith, Shubulade; Wylie, Kevan; Wong, Ruth

2015-02-12

Despite variability in sexual activity among people with severe mental illness, high-risk sexual behavior (e.g. unprotected intercourse, multiple partners, sex trade and illicit drug use) is common. Sexual health risk reduction interventions (such as educational and behavioral interventions, motivational exercises, counselling and service delivery), developed and implemented for people with severe mental illness, may improve participants' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs behaviors or practices (including assertiveness skills) and could lead to a reduction in risky sexual behavior. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched to August 2014, and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles and contacting experts. All controlled trials (randomized or non-randomized) comparing the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions with usual care for individuals living in the community with severe mental illness were included. Outcomes included a range of biological, behavioral and proxy endpoints. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Thirteen controlled trials (all from the USA) were included. Although there was no clear and consistent evidence that interventions reduce the total number of sex partners or improved behavioral intentions in sexual risk behavior, positive effects were generally observed in condom use, condom protected intercourse and on measures of HIV knowledge, attitudes to condom use and sexual behaviors and practices. However, the robustness of these findings is low due to the large between study variability, small sample sizes and low-to-moderate quality of included studies. There is insufficient evidence at present to fully support or reject the identified sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Given the

78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...

US-Soviet cooperation in countering nuclear terrorism: the role of risk reduction centers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunn, S.; Warner, J.W.

1987-01-01

Preventing nuclear terrorism should be high on the agenda of US-Soviet relations. Indeed, the specter of nuclear terrorism, more than any other factor originally prompted and has subsequently sustained the author's deep interest in US-Soviet agreements on establishment of US-Soviet Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers and other important risk-reduction measures. Such centers can play an invaluable role in facilitating discussions aimed at forestalling possible contingencies and in providing a mechanism for dampening escalatory dangers that might otherwise result from any future nuclear terrorism incident. In addition to these crucial substantive functions, the centers could serve to reassure anxious publics that the governments they have entrusted with command authority over tens of thousands of nuclear devices are giving the highest priority to reducing the risk that any of them will ever be used, whether by design or by accident. Nuclear risk Reduction Centers are an idea whose time has come

The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Hiriart, Yolande

2011-01-01

We consider a basic model in economic safety analysis: a firm is willing to invest an amount x in safety measures to avoid an accident A, which in the case of occurrence, leads to a loss of size L. The probability of an accident is a function of x. The optimal value of x is determined by minimizing the expected costs. In the paper, we re-examine this model by adopting a practical risk/safety management perspective. We question how this model can be used for guiding the firm and regulators in determining the proper level of investment in safety. Attention is given to issues like how to determine the probability of an accident and how to take into account uncertainties that extend beyond the expected value. It is concluded that the model, with suitable extensions and if properly implemented, provides a valuable decision support tool. By focusing on investment levels and stimulating thereby the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures, the model is considered particularly useful in risk reduction (ALARP) processes. - Highlights: → It is shown how to use a basic investment model in a practical risk management setting. → The model may be a valuable decision support tool if properly implemented. → It guides decision makers on risk reduction and how to determine what is ALARP. → The model stimulates the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures.

Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

2016-04-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

Health risk reduction behaviors model for scavengers exposed to solid waste in municipal dump sites in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thirarattanasunthon P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Phiman Thirarattanasunthon,1 Wattasit Siriwong,1,2 Mark Robson,2–4 Marija Borjan3 1College of Public Health Sciences, Chulalongkorn University, 2Thai Fogarty ITREOH Center, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand; 3School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, 4UMDNJ-School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USAAbstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of comprehensive health risk protection behaviors, knowledge, attitudes, and practices among scavengers in open dump sites. A control group of 44 scavengers and an intervention group of 44 scavengers participated in this study. Interventions included the use of personal protective equipment, health protection training, and other measures. The analysis showed significant differences before and after the intervention program and also between the control and intervention groups. These observations suggest that further action should be taken to reduce adverse exposure during waste collection. To reduce health hazards to workers, dump site scavenging should be incorporated into the formal sector program. Solid waste and the management of municipal solid waste has become a human and environmental health issue and future research should look at constructing a sustainable model to help protect the health of scavengers and drive authorities to adopt safer management techniques.Keywords: scavenger, health risk reduction behaviors model (HRRBM, personal protective equipment (PPE, knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP, waste health coordinator (WHC

Forging process design for risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Yongning

In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

Development and evaluation of thermal model reduction algorithms for spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Deiml, Michael; Suderland, Martin; Reiss, Philipp; Czupalla, Markus

2015-05-01

This paper is concerned with the topic of the reduction of thermal models of spacecraft. The work presented here has been conducted in cooperation with the company OHB AG, formerly Kayser-Threde GmbH, and the Institute of Astronautics at Technische Universität München with the goal to shorten and automatize the time-consuming and manual process of thermal model reduction. The reduction of thermal models can be divided into the simplification of the geometry model for calculation of external heat flows and radiative couplings and into the reduction of the underlying mathematical model. For simplification a method has been developed which approximates the reduced geometry model with the help of an optimization algorithm. Different linear and nonlinear model reduction techniques have been evaluated for their applicability in reduction of the mathematical model. Thereby the compatibility with the thermal analysis tool ESATAN-TMS is of major concern, which restricts the useful application of these methods. Additional model reduction methods have been developed, which account to these constraints. The Matrix Reduction method allows the approximation of the differential equation to reference values exactly expect for numerical errors. The summation method enables a useful, applicable reduction of thermal models that can be used in industry. In this work a framework for model reduction of thermal models has been created, which can be used together with a newly developed graphical user interface for the reduction of thermal models in industry.

Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

2015-01-01

This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

Sexual risk reduction among Zambian couples | Jones | SAHARA-J ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Zambia has over 1 million HIV infections nationwide and an urban prevalence rate of 23%. This study compared the impact of male involvement in multiple and single session risk reduction interventions among inconsistent condom users in Zambia and the role of serostatus among HIV-seropositive and serodiscordant ...

Career advising in family medicine: a theoretical framework for structuring the medical student/faculty advisor interview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Bradner

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background: There are unique challenges to recruiting students into the specialty of family medicine within academic medical centers. Methods: At Virginia Commonwealth University, we developed an advising framework to help students address institutional and personal obstacles to choosing family medicine as a career. Results: The role of a faculty advisor is not to direct the student to a career choice but rather to foster a mentor relationship and help the student come to his or her own realizations regarding career choice. The faculty advisor/medical student interview is conceptualized as five discussion topics: self-knowledge, perception, organizational voice, cognitive dissonance, and anticipatory counseling. Conclusion: This framework is intended to assist faculty in their efforts to encourage students to consider a career in family medicine.

Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

2015-01-01

textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, Robert; Jakubínský, Jiří

2015-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 8 (2015), s. 1-6 ISSN 1381-2386 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Bečva River Basin * Czech Republic * flood risk reduction * floods * household adaptation * household coping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Harnessing farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

2009-01-01

This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers' knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

2010-01-01

This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

Thermal performance advisor expert system development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClintock, M.; Hirota, N.; Metzinger, R.

1991-01-01

In recent years the electric industry has developed an increased interest in improving efficiency of nuclear power plants. EPRI has embarked upon a research project RP2407, Nuclear Plant Performance Improvements which is designed to address needs in this area. One product of this project has been the Thermal Performance Diagnostic Manual for Nuclear Power Plants (NP-4990P). The purpose of this manual is to provide engineering personnel at nuclear power plants with a consistent way in which to identify thermal performance problems. General Physics is also involved in the development of another computer system called Fossil Thermal Performance Advisor (FTPA) which helps operators improve performance for fossil power plants. FTPA is a joint venture between General Physics and New York State Electric and Gas Company. This paper describes both of these computer systems and uses the FTPA as an interesting comparison that illustrates the considerations required for the development of a computer system that effectively addresses the needs of the users

Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

2013-08-26

Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

Elaboration et Suivi des Budgets de Marketing Industriel: le Système ADVISOR

OpenAIRE

Choffray, Jean-Marie; Delabre, Gilles

1982-01-01

Cet article revoit les problèmes posés par l'élaboration et le suivi des budgets de marketing dans un environnement industriel. Il présente le système ADVISOR pour lequel nous avons développé un programme interactif adapté aux besoins des entreprises Françaises.

Double trouble: modelling the impact of low risk perception and high-risk sexual behaviour on chlamydia transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

van Wees, Daphne A; den Daas, Chantal; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E E; Heijne, Janneke C M

2018-04-01

Risk perception plays an important role in testing behaviour for sexually transmitted infections, but is rarely included in mathematical models exploring the impact of testing. We explored the impact of incorporating sexual behaviour (SB), risk perception (RP) and differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups on prevalence, using chlamydia as an example. We developed a pair model with a susceptible-infected-susceptible structure representing heterosexuals aged 16-26 years. The effect of testing on chlamydia prevalence was compared between a model with only SB (SB model) and a model with SB and RP (SB-RP model). In the SB-RP model, a scenario without differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups was compared to scenarios with differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups. Introducing testing into the SB-RP model resulted in a slightly smaller reduction in chlamydia prevalence (-38.0%) as compared to the SB model (-40.4%). In the SB-RP model, the scenario without differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups overestimated the reduction in chlamydia prevalence (with 4.8%), especially in the group with high SB and low RP (19.8%). We conclude that mathematical models incorporating RP and differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups improve the impact assessment of testing and treatment on chlamydia prevalence. © 2018 The Author(s).

The dark side of risk and crisis communication: legal conflicts and responsibility allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Scolobig, A.

2015-04-01

Inadequate, misinterpreted or missing risk and crisis communication may be a reason for practitioners, and sometimes even science advisors, to become subjects of criminal charges. This work discusses the legal consequences of communication. After presenting some cases, the discussion focuses on three critical issues: the development of effective communication protocols; the role, tasks and responsibilities of science advisors; and the collateral effects of practitioners' defensive behaviours. For example, if the avoidance of personal liability becomes a primary objective for practitioners, it may clash with other objectives, such as the protection of vulnerable communities or the transparency of decision-making. The conclusion presents some ideas for future research on the legal aspects of risk communication.

Partnering With a Family Advisor to Improve Communication in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Czulada, Laura; Leino, Patience; Willis, Tina Schade

2016-11-01

Inadequate communication between medical teams and families can lead to errors and poor-quality care. The objective was to understand why communication between the clinical team and families was not occurring consistently in the pediatric intensive care unit and improve the system using a multidisciplinary improvement team including a family advisor. This improvement project used Lean Six Sigma. The team observed updates and collected documented communication, survey, interview, and focus group data from families and staff. Root causes of failures included lack of assigned responsibility, lack of defined daily update, and lack of a daily communication standard. Process changes were implemented, resulting in an increased mean documented communication rate from 13% pre intervention to 65% post intervention that was sustained for more than 2 years (P < .001). Including a family advisor as an equal member of an improvement team provides family empowerment and a greater chance of success in complex areas. © The Author(s) 2015.

Review of the severe accident risk reduction program (SARRP) containment event trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-05-01

A part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have constructed a group of containment event trees to be used in the analysis of key accident sequences for light water reactors (LWR) during postulated severe accidents. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide to the NRC staff a current assessment of the risk from severe reactor accidents for a group of five light water reactors. This review specifically focuses on the development and construction of the containment event trees and the results for containment failure probability, modes and timing. The report first gives the background on the program, the review criteria, and a summary of the observations, findings and recommendations. secondly, the individual reviews of each committee member on the event trees is presented. Finally, a review is provided on the computer model used to construct and evaluate the event trees

Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

2012-01-01

One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

Investing in finite-life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fouilloux, Jessica; Moraux, Franck; Viviani, Jean-Laurent

2015-01-01

This paper aims at emphasizing the ability of new frameworks of real option model to highlight key characteristics of industrial Carbon Emissions Reduction Program investment decision. We develop both theoretical arguments and numerical simulations with structural parameters calibrated on real-life data. We find that both radical uncertainty and risk lead to speed-up green investments, compared to the predictions of real option models that are normally used in green investment literature. The conventional “wait and see” attitude, questioned in recent developments of the real option theory, is not validated. In conclusion, our results should foster companies to implement green investments and help governments to define appropriate incentives to encourage green investments. Of particular note, the paper highlights that finance theory is not necessarily an obstacle to green investment decisions. -- Highlights: •We use real option model to identify key features of CERP investment decision. •We determine the optimal carbon price threshold to undertake a CERP. •Investment decision is a non-monotonic function of idiosyncratic uncertainty. •Increasing uncertainty until a moderate level can accelerate investment decision. •Decreasing idiosyncratic risk can accelerate investment decision

Doctoral Advisor-Advisee Pairing in STEM Fields: Selection Criteria and Impact of Faculty, Student and Departmental Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simy Joy

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Unlike the doctoral programs in places where students are paired with advisors at the time of admission itself, most US programs require the students to choose their advisors, and the advisors to formally accept the students as advisees. Little research has been done to understand how students and faculty approach this mutual selection and pairing process. This paper examines this process in STEM departments (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, with specific focus on factors influencing the decisions. Based on focus groups and interviews of doctoral students and faculty from STEM departments in an American university, we identify criteria applied by students and faculty in making their choices. Students were found to assess faculty on available funding, area of research, personality, ability to graduate students fast, and career prospects for students, and faculty to assess students on their qualifications/credentials and perceived ability to contribute to research. We also found that this mutual assessment was not objective, but influenced by perceptions associated with faculty gender and career stage, and student nationality. In the end, whether students and faculty were actually paired with persons of their choice depended on departmental factors including prevalent pairing practices, restrictions on student numbers per faculty, and reward structure. We discuss implications of the findings for research and practice.

Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

2015-01-01

We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinko Zlatić

Full Text Available We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

OTA director to be Clinton's science advisor

Science.gov (United States)

Leath, Audrey

President Clinton has nominated John H. “Jack” Gibbons to be Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, and director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). For over a decade, Gibbons has served as director of the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), a bipartisan research arm of Congress.In nominating Gibbons, Clinton said, “I am delighted to appoint a brilliant scientist and gifted administrator… It is profoundly important that the president have a science advisor who understands science, who understands technology, who understands the practical application of these disciplines to the myriad of problems we face today. And I can tell you that from [Vice-president] Al Gore on down to every other member of Congress I have discussed John Gibbons with, I have hardly ever received more glowing and more consistent recommendations for anyone.”

Rapid repair advisor for motor-operated valves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somsel, J.K.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the initial proposed application for the Rapid Repair Advisor project for motor-operated valves (MOVs). The expected benefits from an MOV testing expert system depend on the purpose of the testing. Straight acceptance testing (post-maintenance and surveillance) could benefit from field verification of test validity. Troubleshooting of failed operators is seldom difficult. Intermittent problems are difficult to resolve suggesting that trace recording capabilities are needed. Predictive diagnosis places the most demands on the interpretive skills of the engineer. However, the limit to predictive capabilities seems to lie in the design of the MOV and the measurable parameters. Utilities are expected to require a knowledgeable MOV maintenance engineer to make decisions on MOV maintenance and operability. The economics of developing an expert system are comparable to improved training for the end-users

Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

78 FR 77175 - Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC and Mutual Fund Series Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-20

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Investment Company Act Release No. 30832; 812-14101] Catalyst... shareholder approval. APPLICANTS: Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC (``CCA'' or the ``Adviser'') and Mutual Fund Series Trust (formerly Catalyst Funds) (the ``Trust''). DATES: Filing Dates: The application was filed on...

Social Geology and Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jayasingha P

2017-03-01

Full Text Available AbstractLandslide disaster risk reduction is presently a challenging task facing by Sri Lankangeologists. Increasing trend of population growth in Sri Lanka has adversely affected thestability of central highland due to various human activities. Among them establishment ofhuman settlements and change in land use pattern have become a serious issue in triggeringland instabilities in central highland of the country. National Building Research Oragnisationwhich is the main focal point in land slide disaster risk reduction in Sri Lanka has takenvaluable and timely needed actions including preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps,early warnings and mitigations. Though the landslide is a geological phenomenon, it is highlyinteracted with human societies. Hence managing the issues arising with the landslideoccurrence should be addressed with a sociological approach. This new approach is known asSocio Geological approach which is discussed here.Key words: Landslide, Geology, Socio Geology, Social Geologist

Communicating Health Risks under Pressure: Homeland Security Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrahan, K.G.; Collie, S.L.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) within the National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) has developed a tool for rapid communication of health risks and likelihood of exposure in preparation for terrorist incidents. The Emergency Consequence Assessment Tool (ECAT) is a secure web-based tool designed to make risk assessment and consequence management faster and easier for high priority terrorist threat scenarios. ECAT has been designed to function as 'defensive play-book' for health advisors, first responders, and decision-makers by presenting a series of evaluation templates for priority scenarios that can be modified for site-specific applications. Perhaps most importantly, the risk communication aspect is considered prior to an actual release event, so that management or legal advisors can concur on general risk communication content in preparation for press releases that can be anticipated in case of an actual emergency. ECAT serves as a one-stop source of information for retrieving toxicological properties for agents of concern, estimating exposure to these agents, characterizing health risks, and determining what actions need to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. ECAT has the capability to be used at a command post where inputs can be checked and communicated while the response continues in real time. This front-end planning is intended to fill the gap most commonly identified during tabletop exercises: a need for concise, timely, and informative risk communication to all parties. Training and customization of existing chemical and biological release scenarios with modeling of exposure to air and water, along with custom risk communication 'messages' intended for public, press, shareholders, and other partners enable more effective communication during times of crisis. For DOE, the ECAT could serve as a prototype that would be amenable to

The Moderating Effect of Personality Traits on Advisor Relationships in Predicting Doctoral Student Burnout

Science.gov (United States)

Kosh, Emily P.

2014-01-01

Personality affects relationships. During the doctoral education, the second most important factor in degree completion, after financial support, is the student-advisor relationship. Approximately half of doctoral students do not finish their degrees. While it is known mentors have a profound impact on the success of doctoral students, the effect…

Validation of the HCM Risk-SCD model in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy following alcohol septal ablation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liebregts, Max; Faber, Lothar; Jensen, Morten K

2018-01-01

Aims: The HCM Risk-SCD model for prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy recommended by the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines has not been validated after septal reduction therapy. The aim of this study was to validate the HCM Risk-SCD model...

Correlates of HIV Risk Reduction Self-Efficacy among Youth in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Louw

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Even though a decline in HIV prevalence has been reported among South African youth 15–24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, the prevalence remains disproportionately high for females overall in comparison to males. This study examines factors associated by HIV risk reduction self-efficacy of South African youth as part of an evaluation of the impact of loveLife, a youth focused HIV prevention programme. A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted with persons of ages 18 to 24 years in four selected provinces in South Africa. Among female respondents (, factors associated with high self-efficacy in the adjusted model were having a low HIV risk perception, HIV/AIDS stigma, ever using drugs, and having life goals. Male respondents ( with high self-efficacy were more likely to have been tested for HIV, have concurrent sexual partners, have had a transactional sex partner in lifetime, a low HIV risk perception, difficulty in having condoms, agreed with coercive sex, high relationship control, and had loveLife face-to-face programme participation. The factors identified with high self-efficacy and HIV-sexual risk behaviour may be considered to strengthen youth HIV prevention programmes in South Africa.

Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1989-01-01

Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

Design and Operational Evaluation of the Traffic Management Advisor at the Ft. Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center

Science.gov (United States)

Swenson, Harry N.; Vincent, Danny; Tobias, Leonard (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

NASA and the FAA have designed and developed and an automation tool known as the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). The system was operationally evaluated at the Ft. Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). The TMA is a time-based strategic planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators and En Route Air Traffic Controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the capacity of a demand impacted airport. The TMA consists of trajectory prediction, constraint-based runway scheduling, traffic flow visualization and controllers advisories. The TMA was used and operationally evaluated for forty-one rush traffic periods during a one month period in the Summer of 1996. The evaluations included all shifts of air traffic operations as well as periods of inclement weather. Performance data was collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations without the TMA. The engineering data indicates that the operations with the TMA show a one to two minute per aircraft delay reduction during rush periods. The human factor data indicate a perceived reduction in en route controller workload as well as an increase in job satisfaction. Upon completion of the evaluation, the TMA has become part of the normal operations at the Ft. Worth ARTCC.

Model reduction in integrated controls-structures design

Science.gov (United States)

Maghami, Peiman G.

1993-01-01

It is the objective of this paper to present a model reduction technique developed for the integrated controls-structures design of flexible structures. Integrated controls-structures design problems are typically posed as nonlinear mathematical programming problems, where the design variables consist of both structural and control parameters. In the solution process, both structural and control design variables are constantly changing; therefore, the dynamic characteristics of the structure are also changing. This presents a problem in obtaining a reduced-order model for active control design and analysis which will be valid for all design points within the design space. In other words, the frequency and number of the significant modes of the structure (modes that should be included) may vary considerably throughout the design process. This is also true as the locations and/or masses of the sensors and actuators change. Moreover, since the number of design evaluations in the integrated design process could easily run into thousands, any feasible order-reduction method should not require model reduction analysis at every design iteration. In this paper a novel and efficient technique for model reduction in the integrated controls-structures design process, which addresses these issues, is presented.

78 FR 69155 - Altegris Advisors, L.L.C., et al.; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-18

... Advisors, L.L.C., et al.; Notice of Application November 12, 2013. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange..., under sections 6(c) and 17(b) of the Act for an exemption from sections 17(a)(1) and (2) of the Act, and under section 6(c) of the Act for an exemption from rule 12d1- 2(a) under the Act. Summary of...

41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

Doing Research Together: A Study on the Views of Advisors with Intellectual Disabilities and Non-Disabled Researchers Collaborating in Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Puyalto, Carol; Pallisera, Maria; Fullana, Judit; Vilà, Montserrat

2016-03-01

Despite an increase in inclusive studies in recent years, research on the views of the people with and without disabilities who have participated in these studies is scarce. The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions and views of advisors with intellectual disabilities and non-disabled researchers who collaborated together on a joint project to study transition to adulthood. Two questionnaires were devised, one for advisors and one for researchers; two focus groups were held with people with intellectual disabilities, three focus groups with researchers, and one focus group with all participants together. Thematic analysis was used for the data analysis. The advisors valued this experience as an opportunity to learn new skills, freely express themselves on matters that affect them, and engage in a socially valued activity. The researchers considered that the participation of people with intellectual disabilities contributed to improving the quality of the research. The study provides a better understanding of inclusive research processes by taking into account participants' views. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving disaster risk reduction capacity of District Civil Protection Units in managing veld fires: A case of Mangwe District in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernest Dube

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This article analysed disaster risk reduction capacity of District Civil Protection Units (DCPUs in managing veld fires in Mangwe District of Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. Veld fires have resulted in unnecessary material, environmental and economic losses. Communities’ livelihoods and property have been destroyed, and the natural environment depleted. The research sought to improve disaster risk reduction capacity of DCPUs in managing veld fires, through new intervention strategies and a new model. The objectives of the study were to investigate the main causes of veld fires; to analyse their impacts; to examine the effectiveness of the current intervention strategies; and to identify challenges in implementing these interventions. Furthermore, the study sought to recommend new possible intervention strategies. This mainly qualitative study employed self-administered questionnaires, interviews and focus-group discussions. Questionnaires were used to investigate members of the DCPU’s ideas, views and experiences, interviews solicited perceptions of community leaders and their subjects, whilst focus-group discussions assisted with information from members of the District Civil Protection Planning Committee. Veld fires in the district are mainly caused by human activities, and they are prevalent during the months of September and October. They affect livelihoods and the natural environment the most. This study found that DCPUs are not prepared to manage veld fires and therefore recommended new strategies and adoption of the community-based disaster risk reduction model. The new strategies include involving community leaders and members of the communities in DCPUs; regular training and workshops to members of DCPUs on veld fire management; creation of fire protection associations; regular campaigns and rehearsal of emergency drills by the DCPU personnel; the introduction of competitions and incentives in veld fire management; vigorous

Does young adults' preferred role in decision making about health, money, and career depend on their advisors' leadership skills?

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Galesic, Mirta

2013-01-01

Few empirical data exist on how decision making about health differs from that in other crucial life domains with less threatening consequences. To shed light on this issue we conducted a study with 175 young adults (average age 19 years). We presented the participants with scenarios involving advisors who provided assistance in making decisions about health, money, and career. For each scenario, participants were asked to what extent they wanted the advisor to exhibit several leadership styles and competencies and what role (active, collaborative, or passive) they preferred to play when making decisions. Results show that decision making about health is distinct from that in the other domains in three ways. First, most of the participants preferred to delegate decision making about their health to their physician, whereas they were willing to collaborate or play an active role in decision making about their career or money. Second, the competencies and leadership style preferred for the physician differed substantially from those desired for advisors in the other two domains: Participants expected physicians to show more transformational leadership--the style that is most effective in a wide range of environments--than those who provide advice about financial investments or career. Finally, participants' willingness to share medical decision making with their physician was tied to how strongly they preferred that the physician shows an effective leadership style. In contrast, motivation to participate in decision making in the other domains was not related to preferences regarding advisors' leadership style or competencies. Our results have implications for medical practice as they suggest that physicians are expected to have superior leadership skills compared to those who provide assistance in other important areas of life.

77 FR 66651 - Salient Advisors, L.P. and MarketShares ETF Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-06

... Advisors, L.P. and MarketShares ETF Trust; Notice of Application October 31, 2012 AGENCY: Securities and... ETF Trust (the ``Trust''). Summary of Application: Applicants request an order that permits: (a... statutory trust. The Trust will initially offer one series, the Salient MLP and Energy Infrastructure ETF...

MARKOV Model Application to Proliferation Risk Reduction of an Advanced Nuclear System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

2008-01-01

The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) emphasizes proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR and PP) as a main goal for future nuclear energy systems. The GIF PR and PP Working Group has developed a methodology for the evaluation of these systems. As an application of the methodology, Markov model has been developed for the evaluation of proliferation resistance and is demonstrated for a hypothetical Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. This paper presents the case of diversion by the facility owner/operator to obtain material that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The Markov model is applied to evaluate material diversion strategies. The following features of the Markov model are presented here: (1) An effective detection rate has been introduced to account for the implementation of multiple safeguards approaches at a given strategic point; (2) Technical failure to divert material is modeled as intrinsic barriers related to the design of the facility or the properties of the material in the facility; and (3) Concealment to defeat or degrade the performance of safeguards is recognized in the Markov model. Three proliferation risk measures are calculated directly by the Markov model: the detection probability, technical failure probability, and proliferation time. The material type is indicated by an index that is based on the quality of material diverted. Sensitivity cases have been done to demonstrate the effects of different modeling features on the measures of proliferation resistance

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Results and assessment of participation of VUPEK in coordinated research project of the IAEA ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadlec, J.; Horacek, P.

1989-01-01

The results and conclusions are summarized of the research programme ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems'' co-ordinated in 1983 to 1988 by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Institutes in 18 member states were involved which performed 33 case studies in the field of risk reduction in various power systems or their parts. A comparison with cost-effectiveness of risk reduction in other fields was made as well. The health risks (occupational, those of population) and the environmental risks were evaluated. The case studies cover various stages of the decision-making process and various decision makers. The solution resulted in 5 methodological studies and 16 models. 11 case studies and 1 methodological study were conducted by the Research Institute of the Fuel and Energy Complex. The experiences obtained, the questions so far unanswered and recommendations for those who will perform similar studies are given. (author). 1 fig., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Risk factors for avascular necrosis after closed reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip.

Science.gov (United States)

Schur, Mathew D; Lee, Christopher; Arkader, Alexandre; Catalano, Anthony; Choi, Paul D

2016-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate risk factors of avascular necrosis (AVN) after closed treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). A retrospective review of children diagnosed with DDH at a tertiary-care children's hospital between 1986 and 2009 was performed. The presence of AVN was assessed according to Salter's classification system. Eighty-two affected hips in 70 children with an average age of 10 months at closed reduction (range 1-31 months) and 5 years (range 2-19 years) of follow-up met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-nine (of 82, 35 %) affected hips developed AVN. The use of pre-reduction traction (p = 0.019) increased the risk of AVN, while preoperative Pavlik harness or brace trial (p = 0.28), presence of ossific nucleus at the time of closed reduction (p = 0.16), and adductor tenotomy (p = 0.37) were not significant factors. Laterality (right vs. left) was also not a significant risk factor (p = 0.75), but patients who underwent closed reduction for bilateral DDH were less likely to develop AVN (p = 0.027). Overall, the degree of abduction did not affect the rate of AVN (p = 0.87). However, in patients treated with closed reduction younger than 6 months of age, the rate of AVN was increased with abduction ≥50° (9/15, 60 %) compared to abduction AVN were more likely to require subsequent surgery (p = 0.034) and more likely to report a fair/poor clinical outcome (p = 0.049). The risk of AVN (35 %) following closed reduction and spica casting for DDH is high. The degree of abduction in spica casts appears to be a risk factor in patients ≤6 months old. The authors recommend that abduction in spica casts should be limited to <50° in children younger than 6 months of age. IV.

Behavioral Couples Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: Secondary Effects on the Reduction of Risk for Child Abuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Michelle L; Bravo, Adrian J; Braitman, Abby L; Lawless, Adrienne K; Lawrence, Hannah R

2016-03-01

Risk for child abuse was examined prior to and after behavioral couples treatment (BCT) among 61 couples in which one or both parents were diagnosed with substance use disorder (SUD). All couples were residing with one or more school-age children. Mothers and fathers completed pretreatment, post-intervention, and 6-month post-intervention follow-up assessments. Results of piecewise latent growth models tested whether the number of BCT sessions attended and number of days abstinent from drugs and alcohol influenced relationship satisfaction and its growth over time, and in turn if relationship satisfaction and change in relationship satisfaction influenced risk for child abuse. For both mothers and fathers, attending more BCT sessions lead to a direct increase in relationship satisfaction, which in turn led to stronger reductions in risk for child abuse. This effect was maintained from the post-intervention through the 6-month post-intervention follow-up. For fathers, number of days abstinent significantly influenced reduction in child abuse potential at post-intervention via relationship satisfaction. This indirect effect was not present for mothers. The overall benefits of BCT on mothers' and fathers' risk for child abuse suggest that BCT may have promise in reducing risk for child abuse among couples in which one or both parents have SUD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration

OpenAIRE

Stephen Brown; William Goetzmann; Bing Liang; Christopher Schwarz

2006-01-01

Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow-performance relationships. Inv...

Risk factors of chronic periodontitis on healing response: a multilevel modelling analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, J; Zhao, H; Pan, C; Li, C; Liu, J; Pan, Y

2017-09-15

Chronic periodontitis is a multifactorial polygenetic disease with an increasing number of associated factors that have been identified over recent decades. Longitudinal epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that the risk factors were related to the progression of the disease. A traditional multivariate regression model was used to find risk factors associated with chronic periodontitis. However, the approach requirement of standard statistical procedures demands individual independence. Multilevel modelling (MLM) data analysis has widely been used in recent years, regarding thorough hierarchical structuring of the data, decomposing the error terms into different levels, and providing a new analytic method and framework for solving this problem. The purpose of our study is to investigate the relationship of clinical periodontal index and the risk factors in chronic periodontitis through MLM analysis and to identify high-risk individuals in the clinical setting. Fifty-four patients with moderate to severe periodontitis were included. They were treated by means of non-surgical periodontal therapy, and then made follow-up visits regularly at 3, 6, and 12 months after therapy. Each patient answered a questionnaire survey and underwent measurement of clinical periodontal parameters. Compared with baseline, probing depth (PD) and clinical attachment loss (CAL) improved significantly after non-surgical periodontal therapy with regular follow-up visits at 3, 6, and 12 months after therapy. The null model and variance component models with no independent variables included were initially obtained to investigate the variance of the PD and CAL reductions across all three levels, and they showed a statistically significant difference (P periodontal therapy with regular follow-up visits had a remarkable curative effect. All three levels had a substantial influence on the reduction of PD and CAL. Site-level had the largest effect on PD and CAL reductions.

Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

2008-01-01

... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

Investigating the risk reduction potential of disaster insurance across Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Surminski, Swenja; Hudson, Paul

2017-01-01

The notion that insurance can play a significant role in risk reduction has recently gained increasing attention in the wake of rising losses from natural disasters. While this notion is accepted in theory, we notice that, in practice, little is known about if and how insurance promotes efforts to

Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karran A. Phillips

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability “as is” in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P<0.05. Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noufel, Frikha

2010-12-01

This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bai, Ying; Guo, Shi-Dong; Shantsila, Alena

2017-01-01

Aims: In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral...... anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections. Methods and results: We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends....... There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths. Conclusion: This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help...

The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernest Dube

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

Blood Glucose Reduction by Diabetic Drugs with Minimal Hypoglycemia Risk for Cardiovascular Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Chi-Jung; Wang, Wei-Ting; Sung, Shih-Hsien

2018-01-01

of antidiabetic drugs with less hypoglycemia risk were comprehensively searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to January 27, 2018. Mixed-effects meta-regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reduction and the risk of major adverse...... concentration was 0.42% lower (median, 0.27-0.86%) for participants given antihyperglycemic agents than those given placebo. The meta-regression analysis demonstrated that HbA1c reduction was significantly associated with a decreased risk of MACE (β value, -0.39 to -0.55; P...-40%) for MACE. By contrast, the meta-regression analysis for trials using conventional agents failed to demonstrate a significant relationship between achieved HbA1c difference and MACE risk (P>0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, newer T2D agents with less hypoglycemic hazard significantly reduced...

The Advisor as Servant: The Theoretical and Philosophical Relevance of Servant Leadership to Academic Advising

Science.gov (United States)

McClellan, Jeffrey L.

2007-01-01

Servant. This novel actively portrays Greenleaf's concept of servant leadership by describing the extracurricular work of a university professor. Consequently, some scholars have demonstrated the relevance of servant leadership to classroom instruction (Powers & Moore, 2005). However, it was not as an instructor, but as an advisor that the…

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

2016-10-01

Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

Breast Cancer Incidence and Risk Reduction in the Hispanic Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, Eric J; Chin, Megan L; Haq, Mohamed M

2018-02-26

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer amongst women worldwide and is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related mortality overall. It is also the foremost reason for cancer-related mortality in Hispanic females in the United States (US). Although the current incidence of breast cancer is significantly lower in Hispanics compared to that of non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and Blacks, (91.9, 128.1, and 124.3 per 100,000, respectively, annually), this may increase if Hispanics develop similar lifestyle behaviors to other American women, in categories such as weight management, age at first birth, number of children, and breastfeeding habits. Stage-for-stage mortality for Hispanics is similar to NHWs, but the mortality rate is not declining as rapidly in this ethnic group. Hispanic women share many of the same risk factors for developing breast cancer as NHWs and Blacks. This suggests that many of the risk reduction strategies used in other racial populations may also benefit this group. Providing education about breast cancer and implementing risk reduction strategies in culturally-aware environments could help keep incidence low and reduce cancer-related mortality. Since Hispanics are the largest minority group in the US, this could have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality nationally.

Health risk reduction programs in employer-sponsored health plans: Part II-law and ethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, Mark A; Harrell, Heather L

2009-08-01

We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests.

Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

2011-01-01

Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

Walking versus running for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Paul T; Thompson, Paul D

2013-05-01

To test whether equivalent energy expenditure by moderate-intensity (eg, walking) and vigorous-intensity exercise (eg, running) provides equivalent health benefits. We used the National Runners' (n=33 060) and Walkers' (n=15 945) Health Study cohorts to examine the effect of differences in exercise mode and thereby exercise intensity on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Baseline expenditure (metabolic equivant hours per day [METh/d]) was compared with self-reported, physician-diagnosed incident hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and CHD during 6.2 years follow-up. Running significantly decreased the risks for incident hypertension by 4.2% (Pdiabetes mellitus by 12.1% (Phypertension; and (3) 43.5%, 44.1%, 47.7%, and 68.2% from running, and 34.1%, 44.2% and 23.6% from walking for diabetes mellitus (walking >5.4 METh/d excluded for too few cases). The risk reductions were not significantly different for running than walking for diabetes mellitus (P=0.94), hypertension (P=0.06), or CHD (P=0.26), and only marginally greater for walking than running for hypercholesterolemia (P=0.04). Equivalent energy expenditures by moderate (walking) and vigorous (running) exercise produced similar risk reductions for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and possibly CHD.

CRITERIA FOR CONSULTANT AND ADVISOR IN THE BRAZILIAN POSTGRADUATE SYSTEM.

Science.gov (United States)

Petroianu, Andy

2015-01-01

To review the rules, resolutions and existing documents relating to consultant and advisor to better target the actions of those who exercise these roles. The following documents were consulted: Statute of CAPES, through Decree No. 7692 of March 2, 2012; Ordinance No. 47 of 17/10/1995; Opinion 977 1965 Newton Sucupira; Area Document of Medicine III; Interministerial Ordinance 251 of 2012, based on Decree No. 7642 of 2011 of the Ministry of Science and Technology; CAPES Regiment. The Brazilian Postgraduate system is divided in two different fields, according to its aspects: the "lato sensu" postgraduate, defined as all professional studies performed after the high school graduation; and the "stricto sensu" postgraduate that includes the master degree and the doctorate, both of them different from what is known as MSc or MS and PhD. The Brazilian doctorate is recognized as academic because its purposes include to improve the scientific and the teaching levels of university docents. The master degree has two different objectives one is to be academic and similar to the doctorate; the other is to upgrade professionals to a higher level than specialist or MBA and is denominated professional master degree. The master degrees and the doctorate are designated as courses and may be put together in a structure known as stricto sensu postgraduate program. The complexity of these courses and programs in all the areas of the superior human knowledge requires a large number of professional directly involved with this system and other professionals that attend them, called consultants and advisors. The consultants are counselors, and the advisors are assistants, both of them legally established with the incumbency to aid the postgraduate staff in all their duties. Nothing prevents a person from being a consultant on the situation and advisor on another, even in the same institution. Have knowledge about what being a consultant and advisor is required to exercise the function

Smoke and mirrors: Limited value of relative risk reductions for assessing the benefits of disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Magd

2015-05-01

A reduction in relapse rate is the main primary outcome in most clinical trials in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), with the effect of a treatment commonly expressed as relative risk reduction for this outcome. Physicians often assume that a drug with a higher relative risk reduction demonstrated in one trial is more effective than a drug with a lower relative risk reduction in another, and may pass this idea on to younger physicians and to patients. The use of the relative risk reduction as a measure of drug efficacy can be misleading, as it depends on the nature of the population studied: a treatment effect characterized by a lower relative risk reduction may be more clinically meaningful than one with a higher relative risk reduction. This concept is especially important with regard to clinical trials in patients with MS, where relapse rates in placebo groups have been declining in recent decades. Direct, head-to-head comparisons are the only way to compare the efficacy of the different treatments for MS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model Reduction in Biomechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yan

mechanical parameters from experimental results. However, in real biological world, these homogeneous and isotropic assumptions are usually invalidate. Thus, instead of using hypothesized model, a specific continuum model at mesoscopic scale can be introduced based upon data reduction of the results from molecular simulations at atomistic level. Once a continuum model is established, it can provide details on the distribution of stresses and strains induced within the biomolecular system which is useful in determining the distribution and transmission of these forces to the cytoskeletal and sub-cellular components, and help us gain a better understanding in cell mechanics. A data-driven model reduction approach to the problem of microtubule mechanics as an application is present, a beam element is constructed for microtubules based upon data reduction of the results from molecular simulation of the carbon backbone chain of alphabeta-tubulin dimers. The data base of mechanical responses to various types of loads from molecular simulation is reduced to dominant modes. The dominant modes are subsequently used to construct the stiffness matrix of a beam element that captures the anisotropic behavior and deformation mode coupling that arises from a microtubule's spiral structure. In contrast to standard Euler-Bernoulli or Timoshenko beam elements, the link between forces and node displacements results not from hypothesized deformation behavior, but directly from the data obtained by molecular scale simulation. Differences between the resulting microtubule data-driven beam model (MTDDBM) and standard beam elements are presented, with a focus on coupling of bending, stretch, shear deformations. The MTDDBM is just as economical to use as a standard beam element, and allows accurate reconstruction of the mechanical behavior of structures within a cell as exemplified in a simple model of a component element of the mitotic spindle.

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Malpica Galassi, Riccardo; Valorani, Mauro; Najm, Habib N.; Safta, Cosmin; Khalil, Mohammad; Ciottoli, Pietro P.

2017-01-01

A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis

Career Preparation: An Often Omitted Element of the Advisor-Graduate Student Relationship

Science.gov (United States)

McManus, D. A.

2001-05-01

Most graduate research advisors care about the education of their graduate students. However, they often define "graduate education" so narrowly that it consists only of solving a research problem. This narrow definition is consistent with their principal goal as geoscientists, to understand the Earth better, and with the reward system typical of research universities, with its emphasis on research. As a result, most advisors usually well prepare students to be researchers in research universities. Research, however, is only part of a faculty member's duties. Commonly omitted is mentoring in the teaching and service duties of a faculty member. Students interested in teaching, in positions in other academic institutions, or in careers outside of academia may be perceived as questioning the advisors' career values and may not be encouraged in these interests. Graduate students should take an active role in their education. In addition to seeking information on career preparation from the campus career center and teaching center and from books, newsmagazines, newspapers, and seminars, students should also seek mentors who have demonstrated an interest in what the student is interested in: teaching and service, as well as research, or in careers outside academia. These mentors may be the students' committee members, other faculty members, or other professional geoscientists. With a broad base of information and some personal decisions, students will have a rationale for exploring careers. The questions students ask can now be more specific: How do they gain the requisite breadth in knowledge and the beneficial skills, beyond the depth of the research experience, and how do they gain opportunities to practice these skills? In short, how can they experience, and preferably practice, what professional geoscientists do in particular careers? If necessary, graduate students can work together to answer these questions by inviting experts to offer workshops in the department

Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2017-05-23

Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Malpica Galassi, Riccardo

2017-03-06

A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis and reduction method which employs computational singular perturbation analysis to generate simplified kinetic mechanisms, starting from a detailed reference mechanism. We model uncertain quantities in the reference mechanism, namely the Arrhenius rate parameters, as random variables with prescribed uncertainty factors. We propagate this uncertainty to obtain the probability of inclusion of each reaction in the simplified mechanism. We propose probabilistic error measures to compare predictions from the uncertain reference and simplified models, based on the comparison of the uncertain dynamics of the state variables, where the mixture entropy is chosen as progress variable. We employ the construction for the simplification of an uncertain mechanism in an n-butane–air mixture homogeneous ignition case, where a 176-species, 1111-reactions detailed kinetic model for the oxidation of n-butane is used with uncertainty factors assigned to each Arrhenius rate pre-exponential coefficient. This illustration is employed to highlight the utility of the construction, and the performance of a family of simplified models produced depending on chosen thresholds on importance and marginal probabilities of the reactions.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Peach Bottom, Unit 2. Main report. Draft for comment, February 1987

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Griesmeyer, J M; Haskin, F E; Kunsman, D M [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Helton, J C [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1987-04-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom, Unit 2). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the modeling of the common-mode failures for the dc power system, the likelihood of offsite power recovery versus time during a station blackout, the probability of drywell failure resulting from meltthrough of the drywell shell, the magnitude of the fission product releases during core-concrete interactions, and the decontamination effectiveness of the reactor enclosure building. Most of the postulated safety options do not appear to be cost effective, although some based on changes to procedures or inexpensive hardware additions may be marginally cost effective. This draft for comment of the SARRP report for Peach Bottom does not include detailed technical appendices, which are still in preparation. The appendices will be issued under separate cover when completed. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

2008-01-01

, authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)

Science.gov (United States)

This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.

Model reduction for circuit simulation

CERN Document Server

Hinze, Michael; Maten, E Jan W Ter

2011-01-01

Simulation based on mathematical models plays a major role in computer aided design of integrated circuits (ICs). Decreasing structure sizes, increasing packing densities and driving frequencies require the use of refined mathematical models, and to take into account secondary, parasitic effects. This leads to very high dimensional problems which nowadays require simulation times too large for the short time-to-market demands in industry. Modern Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques present a way out of this dilemma in providing surrogate models which keep the main characteristics of the devi

Profile of elementary school science teacher instruction in disaster risk reduction: case study of volcano disaster

Science.gov (United States)

Pujianto; Prabowo; Wasis

2018-04-01

This study examined the profile of science' teacher instruction in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), as a feature of instructional quality, on students’ learning experiences. A qualitative study was done to observe teacher activities in teaching of disaster preparedness. Science teacher and 14 students at grade 4 of SDN (elementary school) Kiyaran 2 are involved as the subject of this study. Teacher’ instruction was coded with regard to preparation, action, and evaluation using observation sheets and documentation. Data analysis results showed a positive significant effect of the readiness during preparation on learning process of disaster risk reduction and an indirect effect of teacher’ action on students’ learning experiences. There is a lack of teaching materials about volcano disaster in the elementary school. Teacher found difficulties on evaluation of student achievement in disaster preparedness. These findings highlight the importance of DRR in uphold science teachers’ education. Items of teachers’ skill in preparing of DRR may be used to offer model of concrete instruction situation during university workshop for maintain teacher education.

78 FR 29399 - ERNY Financial ETF Trust and ERNY Financial Advisors, LLC; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-20

... Financial ETF Trust and ERNY Financial Advisors, LLC; Notice of Application May 13, 2013. AGENCY: Securities... for an exemption from sections 12(d)(1)(A) and (B) of the Act. Applicants: ERNY Financial ETF Trust... ETF (the ``Initial Fund''), the investment objective of which will be to seek long-term capital...

Data Transfer Advisor with Transport Profiling Optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rao, Nageswara S. [ORNL; Liu, Qiang [ORNL; Yun, Daqing [Harrisburg University; Wu, Chase Qishi [New Jersey Institute of Technology; Kettimuthu, R. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Jung, Eun-sung [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

2017-11-01

The network infrastructures have been rapidly upgraded in many high-performance networks (HPNs). However, such infrastructure investment has not led to corresponding performance improvement in big data transfer, especially at the application layer, largely due to the complexity of optimizing transport control on end hosts. We design and implement ProbData, a PRofiling Optimization Based DAta Transfer Advisor, to help users determine the most effective data transfer method with the most appropriate control parameter values to achieve the best data transfer performance. ProbData employs a profiling optimization based approach to exploit the optimal operational zone of various data transfer methods in support of big data transfer in extreme scale scientific applications. We present a theoretical framework of the optimized profiling approach employed in ProbData as wellas its detailed design and implementation. The advising procedure and performance benefits of ProbData are illustrated and evaluated by proof-of-concept experiments in real-life networks.

What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

2015-12-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

2016-09-01

To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yekaterina Y. Kontar

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

Retrospective Review of Student Research Projects in a Canadian Master of Science in Physical Therapy Programme and the Perceived Impact on Advisors' Research Capacity, Education, Clinical Practice, Knowledge Translation, and Health Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacey, Courtney; Scodras, Stephanie; Ardron, Julie; Sellan, Ryan; Garbaczewska, Martyna; O'Brien, Kelly K; Salbach, Nancy M

2018-01-01

Purpose: This study's aim was to characterize the nature of students' research conducted for a Master of Science in Physical Therapy (MScPT) degree programme at a Canadian university and evaluate the lead advisors' perspectives of its impact on their research capacity, education, clinical practice, knowledge translation, and health policy. Methods: We conducted a quantitative, cross-sectional, retrospective review of research reports from 2003 to 2014 to characterize the MScPT students' research and a quantitative, cross-sectional e-survey of lead research advisors to evaluate the impact of this research. Results: Data were abstracted from reports of 201 research projects completed between 2003 and 2014. Projects were conducted primarily in university-affiliated hospitals (41.6%) or the university's physical therapy department (41.1%), and the majority (52.5%) had a clinical focus. Of the 95 lead advisors of 201 projects, 59 advisors (response rate 62.1%) of 119 projects completed the survey questionnaire. The respondents most frequently identified clinical practice (45.1%) and advisors' research capacity (31.4%) as areas positively affected by the students' research. Conclusions: The MScPT students' research projects facilitate the conduct of extensive research internally and across affiliated hospitals. This research appears to advance not only clinical practice but also the ability of lead advisors to undertake research.

Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

2012-01-01

A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...... by using the concept and properties of the reciprocal systems. The results are further illustrated by two practical numerical examples: a model of CD player and a model of the atmospheric storm track....

Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

Science.gov (United States)

Chavez, E.

2015-12-01

Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

Dealing with unquantifiable uncertainties in landslide modelling for urban risk reduction in developing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment can be used to guide decisions about the management of landslide risk, but its usefulness can be challenged by high levels of uncertainty in predicting landslide occurrence. Prediction uncertainty may be associated with the choice of model that is used to assess slope stability, the quality of the available input data, or a lack of knowledge of how future climatic and socio-economic changes may affect future landslide risk. While some of these uncertainties can be characterised by relatively well-defined probability distributions, for other uncertainties, such as those linked to climate change, no probability distribution is available to characterise them. This latter type of uncertainty, often referred to as deep uncertainty, means that robust policies need to be developed that are expected to perform acceptably well over a wide range of future conditions. In our study the impact of deep uncertainty on slope stability predictions is assessed in a quantitative and structured manner using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM). In particular, we use several GSA methods including the Method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Classification and Regression Trees (CART), as well as advanced visualization tools, to assess the combination of conditions that may lead to slope failure. Our example application is a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates during the hurricane season, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and changing climate may further exacerbate landslide risk in the future. Our example shows how we can gain useful information in the presence of deep uncertainty by combining physically based models with GSA in

Risk reduction and TQM: A corporate culture of continuous improvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nau, D.C.

1992-01-01

A company supplying products and services to the nuclear industry that implements a cultural commitment to continuous improvement, in addition to providing higher quality products and services, also represents a significant reduction in operational risk to that industry. The implementation of a culture of total quality management (TQM), initiated by Sorrento Electronics (SE) in 1989, involves total commitment to the basic TQM principles: continuous improvement, people performing the work are the best sources of how to do it better, and employees must be empowered to make the improvements. What this means to the nuclear industry is a significant reduction in operational risk through: (1) products based on simpler, standardized, proven designs with established operational track records, enhancing confidence that they will perform as expected; (2) the highest confidence that products and supporting documentation are delivered with zero defects; (3) critical power plant schedules can be supported through the shortest possible equipment delivery times; (4) highly motivated employees with extremely positive attitudes, working together in cross-functional teams, virtually eliminate the possibility of deliberate product tampering or sabotage

Soft-sensing model of temperature for aluminum reduction cell on improved twin support vector regression

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Tao

2018-06-01

The complexity of aluminum electrolysis process leads the temperature for aluminum reduction cells hard to measure directly. However, temperature is the control center of aluminum production. To solve this problem, combining some aluminum plant's practice data, this paper presents a Soft-sensing model of temperature for aluminum electrolysis process on Improved Twin Support Vector Regression (ITSVR). ITSVR eliminates the slow learning speed of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the over-fit risk of Twin Support Vector Regression (TSVR) by introducing a regularization term into the objective function of TSVR, which ensures the structural risk minimization principle and lower computational complexity. Finally, the model with some other parameters as auxiliary variable, predicts the temperature by ITSVR. The simulation result shows Soft-sensing model based on ITSVR has short time-consuming and better generalization.

An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Villagra, Victor G

2009-04-01

Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

Disaster Risk Reduction through school learners’ awareness and preparedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takalani S. Rambau

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In 2006, the ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007 initiated a campaign called Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School to encourage the integration of disaster risk education into school curricula in countries vulnerable to disasters. A study was initiated to determine how education, in particular curriculum development and teaching, contributes to South African learners’ hazard awareness and disaster preparedness. Mixed method research (consisting of questionnaires, interviews and document reviews was done to collect data. 150 educators from Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and the Eastern Cape completed questionnaires. Five curriculum coordinators, three disaster specialists and two disaster lecturers were interviewed to record their perspectives. The first finding of the study was that the majority of educators, disaster specialists and curriculum coordinators identified floods, fire, droughts, epidemics, road accidents and storms as the most prevalent disasters in the country. The second finding from the literature and empirical data collection revealed that South African communities, particularly people residing in informal settlements and other poor areas, are more vulnerable to disasters than their counterparts in more affluent areas. The third finding of the study was that teaching learners about hazards and disasters is vital and must be expanded.

76 FR 33376 - Altegris Advisors, L.L.C. and Northern Lights Fund Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-08

... the Fund and its shareholders, and does not involve a conflict of interest from which the Adviser or... amend subadvisory agreements without shareholder approval. Applicants: Altegris Advisors, L.L.C. (the.... Interested persons may request a hearing by writing to the Commission's Secretary and serving applicants with...

Culturally Competent Training Program: A Key to Training Lay Health Advisors for Promoting Breast Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Mei-yu; Song, Lixin; Seetoo, Amy; Cai, Cuijuan; Smith, Gary; Oakley, Deborah

2007-01-01

The lay health advisor (LHA) training program for breast cancer screening was conducted among Chinese-English bilingual trainees residing in Southeast Michigan. Guided by Bandura's Social Learning Theory, the development of the training curriculum followed the health communication process recommended by the National Cancer Institute. Data analysis…

Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

1992-01-01

The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

Shift technical advisors: in the eyes of the NRC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crocker, L.P.

1981-01-01

Since January 1, 1980, the NRC has required that Shift Technical Advisors be on-shift at all operating nuclear power plants. The objective of the requirement is to assure that technical expertise is immediately available to each operating shift to assess off-normal events and to provide advice to control room personnel. Further, this advice and assistance is to be provided by an individual not responsible for control manipulations or for directing the activities of reactor operators. The long-term requirement for on-shift technical expertise is firm. However, the exact manner in which this expertise must be furnished has not been determined. Licensees have proposed various alternatives to meet this requirement. These proposals still are being reviewed by the NRC staff

A text message intervention for alcohol risk reduction among community college students: TMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Beth C; Barnett, Nancy P; Thind, Herpreet; Rosen, Rochelle; Walaska, Kristen; Traficante, Regina; Foster, Robert; Deutsch, Chris; Fava, Joseph L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J

2016-12-01

Students at community colleges comprise nearly half of all U.S. college students and show higher risk of heavy drinking and related consequences compared to students at 4-year colleges, but no alcohol safety programs currently target this population. To examine the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered through text messaging designed for community college (CC) students. Heavy drinking adult CC students (N=60) were enrolled and randomly assigned to the six-week active intervention (Text Message Alcohol Program: TMAP) or a control condition of general motivational (not alcohol related) text messages. TMAP text messages consisted of alcohol facts, strategies to limit alcohol use and related risks, and motivational messages. Assessments were conducted at baseline, week 6 (end of treatment) and week 12 (follow up). Most participants (87%) completed all follow up assessments. Intervention messages received an average rating of 6.8 (SD=1.5) on a 10-point scale. At week six, TMAP participants were less likely than controls to report heavy drinking and negative alcohol consequences. The TMAP group also showed significant increases in self-efficacy to resist drinking in high risk situations between baseline and week six, with no such increase among controls. Results were maintained through the week 12 follow up. The TMAP alcohol risk reduction program was feasible and highly acceptable indicated by high retention rates through the final follow up assessment and good ratings for the text message content. Reductions in multiple outcomes provide positive indications of intervention efficacy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

77 FR 60732 - PACE Select Advisors Trust and UBS Global Asset Management (Americas) Inc.; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-04

....; Institutional Capital, LLC; J.P. Morgan Investment Management, Inc.; Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment...; Standish Mellon Asset Management Company, LLC; Systematic Financial Management, L.P.; Wellington Management... Select Advisors Trust and UBS Global Asset Management (Americas) Inc.; Notice of Application September 27...

A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dijkman, Jos

2007-01-01

.... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...

Salud Para Su Corazon (health for your heart) community health worker model: community and clinical approaches for addressing cardiovascular disease risk reduction in Hispanics/Latinos.

Science.gov (United States)

Balcazar, H; Alvarado, M; Ortiz, G

2011-01-01

This article describes 6 Salud Para Su Corazon (SPSC) family of programs that have addressed cardiovascular disease risk reduction in Hispanic communities facilitated by community health workers (CHWs) or Promotores de Salud (PS). A synopsis of the programs illustrates the designs and methodological approaches that combine community-based participatory research for 2 types of settings: community and clinical. Examples are provided as to how CHWs can serve as agents of change in these settings. A description is presented of a sustainability framework for the SPSC family of programs. Finally, implications are summarized for utilizing the SPSC CHW/PS model to inform ambulatory care management and policy.

Inequality confirmed: institutional exclusion in the interaction between job-centre advisors and unemployed young people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulla Rantakeisu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Since the 1990s, the pressures on the unemployed have intensified in Sweden owing to increasing demands on individuals to be employable. This article centres on unemployed youths’ experiences of their visits to the public employment services in four Swedish municipalities and how these experiences can be understood against the background of the intersection of social class and gender. A total of 18 unemployed youths were interviewed and their reasoning was compared with their respective employment-agency officers. The analysis shows that the employment agency gives priority to young working-class men over young working-class women and to middle-class youths over working-class youths, respectively. Young working-class women’s wish to combine employment with caregiving is seen as an encumbrance by the employment agency and these women expressed the harshest criticism against the employment agency. When the advisors meet youths who do not correspond with the current expectations and ideals of the labour market, they risk taking part in an institutional process of exclusion of these youngsters.

Beyond the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Vulnerability Reduction as a Challenge Involving Historical and Traditional Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Pica

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In observance of the international procedures on disaster risk management, and in particular the Sendai Framework (2015, this research focuses on how more specific procedures related to it can be made effective in the treatment of historic areas worldwide. Disaster risk management is now viewed as being important in the context of historic buildings, as they are strongly related to cultural identity as well as to resilient communities, and can have a large impact on local economies. The study points out that cultural heritage might be the core field of action for capacity building in less vulnerable places, and that its protection is one of the main tasks to attend to in order to achieve the goal of vulnerability reduction. The paper also aims to answer questions such as: which actions could allow better protection of cultural heritage? Is it correct to involve local communities in reconstruction plans by capacity building and self-managed projects? How have reconstruction plans been managed recently worldwide? By further developing the applicability of the priority areas of action of the Sendai Framework, the research illustrates critical points and best practices that will hopefully support disaster risk reduction based on strategic management and remote monitoring, involving technologies and social participation.

Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

2012-08-01

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

1987-02-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

1987-02-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

Teachers Providing Social and Emotional Support: A Study of Advisor Role Enactment in Small High Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Phillippo, Kate L.

2010-01-01

Background/Context: This study investigates the teacher's role in the student advisory process, which to date has generated limited research literature. Teachers who serve as student advisors assume a role that extends beyond the more traditional instructional role, and includes implied or explicit expectations to provide student advisees with…

Fostering Academic Self-Concept: Advisor Support and Sense of Belonging among International and Domestic Graduate Students

Science.gov (United States)

Curtin, Nicola; Stewart, Abigail J.; Ostrove, Joan M.

2013-01-01

International doctoral students in the United States face challenges of acculturation in academia yet complete graduate school at higher rates and more quickly than their domestic counterparts. This study examined advisor support, sense of belonging, and academic self-concept among international and domestic doctoral students at a research…

77 FR 49839 - IndexIQ Advisors LLC and IndexIQ Active ETF Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-17

... Advisors LLC and IndexIQ Active ETF Trust; Notice of Application August 13, 2012. AGENCY: Securities and... IndexIQ Active ETF Trust (the ``Trust''). SUMMARY OF APPLICATION: Applicants request an order that... series, IQ Global Equity Active ETF (``Global Equity ETF''), IQ Global Fixed Income Active ETF (``Global...

Reduction of risk level as one of the main challenges of development in covered karst regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Makhnatov Stanislav A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the experience of application of the residual karst risk concept, and presents coefficients of karst risk level reduction for planning constructional karst-protection. Practical experience of design for karstified territories of Nizhny Novgorod region demonstrates that special research of the interaction between constructions and foundations is required. Numerous accidents can serve vivid examples proving the need. I2n this situation it is important to approach the issue of safety in a proper way, taking into account probable economic, environmental and social damage. The problem can be solved by introduction of the karst risk level parameter, which permits to take into consideration constructional characteristics of objects (design philosophy, service life, as well as conditions and mechanisms of interaction between the foundation and the construction (sinkholes, local subsidence, karst-suffosion deformations, etc.. The importance of risk reduction is highlighted by current Russian Federal laws. Depending on karst risk level adequate karst-protection should be performed. For building projects, reduction of karst risk to a permissible level (conventionally equal to 1 is one of the most important research challenges of the karstified territories development, and its solution permits to plan appropriate karst protection measures.

Installation and evaluation of a nuclear power plant operator advisor based on artificial intelligence technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.

1989-01-01

This report discusses the following topics on a Nuclear Power Plant operator advisor based on artificial Intelligence Technology; Workstation conversion; Software Conversion; V ampersand V Program Development Development; Simulator Interface Development; Knowledge Base Expansion; Dynamic Testing; Database Conversion; Installation at the Perry Simulator; Evaluation of Operator Interaction; Design of Man-Machine Interface; and Design of Maintenance Facility

Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

2010-07-01

The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

75 FR 76345 - Risk Reduction Program

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-08

... application of engineering and management principles, criteria, and techniques to optimize safety. Like risk.../deficiencies, using statistical models that compare the railroad's performance to the industry average or an... and implementation of its RRP utilizing valid mathematical tests or methods that conform to the...

Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

heritage. These limitations serve as motivation for the introduction of the ACTOR framework (Assessing Cultural Threats, Obstacles and Resilience) ACTOR aims at merging cultural heritage assessments with risk reduction and disaster recovery, and provide disaster management students with a learning......Abstract There is a general professional consensus that vulnerability and risk assessments are crucial tasks in any serious attempt to substantially reduce disaster losses and enhance the reconciliation or recovery in the post event phase. However, cultural heritage is often considered...... as an overarching element that should be assessed, rather than a permanent key component of the assessments. Research in disaster management noticeably illustrates how cultural heritage is increasingly at risk from disasters caused by natural and human-made hazards, as well as the effects of climate change. Still...

The challenges of science journalism: The perspectives of scientists, science communication advisors and journalists from New Zealand.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashwell, Douglas James

2016-04-01

The news media play an important role in informing the public about scientific and technological developments. Some argue that restructuring and downsizing result in journalists coming under increased pressure to produce copy, leading them to use more public relations material to meet their deadlines. This article explores science journalism in the highly commercialised media market of New Zealand. Using semi-structured interviews with scientists, science communication advisors and journalists, the study finds communication advisors and scientists believe most media outlets, excluding public service media, report science poorly. Furthermore, restructuring and staff cuts have placed the journalists interviewed under increasing pressure. While smaller newspapers appear to be printing press releases verbatim, metropolitan newspaper journalists still exercise control over their use of such material. The results suggest these journalists will continue to resist increasing their use of public relations material for some time to come. © The Author(s) 2014.

Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the concept of a multifunctional dike has already often been implemented, and has been identified as a promising climate adaptation measure. In a multifunctional dike, functions like urban development, transport infrastructure, recreation, agriculture or nature are deliberately combined with its primary flood protection function. This means that the design must be based on the requirements and life span of all different functions, while in a monofunctional dike only the flood protection function is considered. By accommodating other functions, a multifunctional dike may easier fit into, or even contribute to the quality of the landscape. Moreover, these other functions may help in financing the flood protection works, but governance is more complicated. To avoid costly adjustments forthcoming from changed safety standards, incorporation of multiple functions can require a more “robust” flood defence than a monofunctional flood defence. A robust flood defence can withstand more extreme situations than required by the present safety standards, and has a substantially lower flooding probability. Therefore, a multifunctional dike may be attractive in view of the uncertainties regarding the effects of climate change and a changing world. Moreover, it will result in reduced flood risk. As part of the Dutch Delta programme, several explorative studies on multifunctional dikes were initiated. Most studies focused on urban areas, but also in the rural area interest emerged for multifunctional dikes, e.g. for the integration of salt marshes into the flood defences. Marshes provide valuable habitat for vegetation and invertebrate species, and are important for wading birds. Furthermore, under condition of abundant sediment availability they can keep pace with sea level rise. Explorative modelling results indicate that vegetated forelands affect wave heights, even under extreme conditions. However, the inclusion of a vegetated

Reduction of cancer risk by optimization of Computed Tomography head protocols: far eastern Cuban experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller Clemente, R.; Adame Brooks, D.; Lores Guevara, M.; Perez Diaz, M.; Arias Garlobo, M. L.; Ortega Rodriguez, O.; Nepite Haber, R.; Grinnan Hernandez, O.; Guillama Llosas, A.

2015-01-01

The cancer risk estimation constitutes one way for the evaluation of the public health, regarding computed tomography (CT) exposures. Starting from the hypothesis that the optimization of CT protocols would reduce significantly the added cancer risk, the purpose of this research was the application of optimization strategies regarding head CT protocols, in order to reduce the factors affecting the risk of induced cancer. The applied systemic approach included technological and human components, represented by quantitative physical factors. the volumetric kerma indexes, compared with respect to standard, optimized and reference values, were evaluated with multiple means comparison method. The added cancer risk resulted from the application of the methodology for biological effects evaluation, at low doses with low Linear Energy Transfer. Human observers in all scenarios evaluated the image quality. the reduced dose was significantly lower than for standard head protocols and reference levels, where: (1) for pediatric patients, by using an Automatic Exposure Control system, a reduction of 31% compared with standard protocol and ages range of 10-14, and (2) adults, using a Bilateral Filter for images obtained at low doses of 62% from those of standard head protocol. The risk reduction was higher than 25%. The systemic approach used allows the effective identification of factors involved on cancer risk related with exposures to CT. The combination of dose modulation and image restoration with Bilateral Filter, provide a significantly reduction of cancer risk, with acceptable diagnostic image quality. (Author)

Perspective of the Science Advisor to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WEART, WENDELL D.

1999-01-01

In 1975 Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was asked by the predecessor to the Department of Energy to assume responsibility for the scientific programs necessary to assure the safe and satisfactory development of a geologic repository in the salt beds of southeast New Mexico. Sandia has continued in the role of Science Advisor to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) to the present time. This paper will share the perspectives developed over the past 25 years as the project was brought to fruition with successful certification by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on May 13, 1998 and commencement of operations on April 26, 1999

Design and Operational Evaluation of the Traffic Management Advisor at the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center

Science.gov (United States)

1997-06-19

NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have designed and developed an automation tool known as the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). The TMA is a time-based strategic planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and ...

A study on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction achieved by non-destructive inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cronvall, O.; Simola, K.; Männistö, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillström, P.; Gandossi, L.

2012-01-01

Leakages and ruptures of piping components lead to reduction or loss of the pressure retaining capability of the system, and thus contribute to the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. In-service inspection (ISI) aims at verifying that defects are not present in components of the pressure boundary or, if defects are present, ensuring that these are detected before they affect the safe operation of the plant. Reliability estimates of piping are needed e.g., in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) applications, and other structural reliability assessments. Probabilistic fracture mechanics models can account for ISI reliability, but a quantitative estimate for the latter is needed. This is normally expressed in terms of probability of detection (POD) curves, which correlate the probability of detecting a flaw with flaw size. A detailed POD curve is often difficult (or practically impossible) to obtain. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (but reasonably conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. This paper summarises the results of a study on the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of analysis cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

77 FR 41464 - IndexIQ Advisors LLC and IndexIQ Active ETF Trust; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-13

...] IndexIQ Advisors LLC and IndexIQ Active ETF Trust; Notice of Application July 9, 2012. AGENCY... IndexIQ Active ETF Trust (``Trust''). Filing Dates: The application was filed on September 9, 2011, and... relief is unusual insofar as the requested order seeks relief for an ETF. Applicants note, however, that...

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

1997-01-01

The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

1997-06-25

The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koroush Khalighi

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

OpenAIRE

Kumar, Sunand; Sharma, Rajiv Kumar; Chauhan, Prashant

2014-01-01

[EN] In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain ...

Ibrutinib-associated bleeding: pathogenesis, management and risk reduction strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Shatzel, J J; Olson, S R; Tao, D L; McCarty, O J T; Danilov, A V; DeLoughery, T G

2017-05-01

Ibrutinib is an irreversible inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (Btk) that has proven to be an effective therapeutic agent for multiple B-cell-mediated lymphoproliferative disorders. Ibrutinib, however, carries an increased bleeding risk compared with standard chemotherapy. Bleeding events range from minor mucocutaneous bleeding to life-threatening hemorrhage, due in large part to the effects of ibrutinib on several distinct platelet signaling pathways. There is currently a minimal amount of data to guide clinicians regarding the use of ibrutinib in patients at high risk of bleeding or on anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. In addition, the potential cardiovascular protective effects of ibrutinib monotherapy in patients at risk of vascular disease are unknown. Patients should be cautioned against using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, fish oils, vitamin E and aspirin-containing products, and consider replacing ibrutinib with a different agent if dual antiplatelet therapy is indicated. Patients should not take vitamin K antagonists concurrently with ibrutinib; direct oral anticoagulants should be used if extended anticoagulation is strongly indicated. In this review, we describe the pathophysiology of ibrutinib-mediated bleeding and suggest risk reduction strategies for common clinical scenarios associated with ibrutinib. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Exact model reduction of combinatorial reaction networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fey Dirk

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Receptors and scaffold proteins usually possess a high number of distinct binding domains inducing the formation of large multiprotein signaling complexes. Due to combinatorial reasons the number of distinguishable species grows exponentially with the number of binding domains and can easily reach several millions. Even by including only a limited number of components and binding domains the resulting models are very large and hardly manageable. A novel model reduction technique allows the significant reduction and modularization of these models. Results We introduce methods that extend and complete the already introduced approach. For instance, we provide techniques to handle the formation of multi-scaffold complexes as well as receptor dimerization. Furthermore, we discuss a new modeling approach that allows the direct generation of exactly reduced model structures. The developed methods are used to reduce a model of EGF and insulin receptor crosstalk comprising 5,182 ordinary differential equations (ODEs to a model with 87 ODEs. Conclusion The methods, presented in this contribution, significantly enhance the available methods to exactly reduce models of combinatorial reaction networks.

A randomized comparison of patients' understanding of number needed to treat and other common risk reduction formats.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, Stacey L; Pignone, Michael P; Lewis, Carmen L

2003-11-01

Commentators have suggested that patients may understand quantitative information about treatment benefits better when they are presented as numbers needed to treat (NNT) rather than as absolute or relative risk reductions. To determine whether NNT helps patients interpret treatment benefits better than absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), or a combination of all three of these risk reduction presentations (COMBO). Randomized cross-sectional survey. University internal medicine clinic. Three hundred fifty-seven men and women, ages 50 to 80, who presented for health care. Subjects were given written information about the baseline risk of a hypothetical "disease Y" and were asked (1) to compare the benefits of two drug treatments for disease Y, stating which provided more benefit; and (2) to calculate the effect of one of those drug treatments on a given baseline risk of disease. Risk information was presented to each subject in one of four randomly allocated risk formats: NNT, ARR, RRR, or COMBO. When asked to state which of two treatments provided more benefit, subjects who received the RRR format responded correctly most often (60% correct vs 43% for COMBO, 42% for ARR, and 30% for NNT, P =.001). Most subjects were unable to calculate the effect of drug treatment on the given baseline risk of disease, although subjects receiving the RRR and ARR formats responded correctly more often (21% and 17% compared to 7% for COMBO and 6% for NNT, P =.004). Patients are best able to interpret the benefits of treatment when they are presented in an RRR format with a given baseline risk of disease. ARR also is easily interpreted. NNT is often misinterpreted by patients and should not be used alone to communicate risk to patients.

Experience with the shift technical advisor position

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melber, B.D.; Olson, J.; Schreiber, R.E.; Winges, L.

1984-03-01

The provision of engineering expertise on shift at commercial nuclear power plants has mainly taken the form of the Shift Technical Advisor (STA). This person, acting in a capacity that is part engineer and part operator, is expected to advise the operations crew in the event of an emergency and review plant operating experience during normal circumstances. The position was mandated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission following the incident at Three Mile Island. This report expands on a growing body of knowledge regarding the effectiveness of the STA. The new data presented here come from interviews with plant personnel and utility officials from nine sites. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) interviewed plant personnel, including the STA and immediate management, the shift supervisor and management, the training department, and ancillary staff, all of whom affect the intended performance of the STA. The conclusions of the report are that the design of the STA position results in limited contribution during emergencies; more comprehensive ways should be sought to provide the variety and specificity of engineering expertise needed during such times

Experience with the shift technical advisor position

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melber, B.D.; Olson, J.; Schreiber, R.E.; Winges, L.

1984-03-01

The provision of engineering expertise on shift at commercial nuclear power plants has mainly taken the form of the Shift Technical Advisor (STA). This person, acting in a capacity that is part engineer and part operator, is expected to advise the operations crew in the event of an emergency and review plant operating experience during normal circumstances. The position was mandated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission following the incident at Three Mile Island. This report expands on a growing body of knowledge regarding the effectiveness of the STA. The new data presented here come from interviews with plant personnel and utility officials from nine sites. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) interviewed plant personnel, including the STA and immediate management, the shift supervisor and management, the training department, and ancillary staff, all of whom affect the intended performance of the STA. The conclusions of the report are that the design of the STA position results in limited contribution during emergencies; more comprehensive ways should be sought to provide the variety and specificity of engineering expertise needed during such times.

Comparison performance of split plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and hybrid electric vehicle using ADVISOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Rashid Muhammad Ikram

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Electric vehicle suffers from relatively short range and long charging times and consequently has not become an acceptable solution to the automotive consumer. The addition of an internal combustion engine to extend the range of the electric vehicle is one method of exploiting the high efficiency and lack of emissions of the electric vehicle while retaining the range and convenient refuelling times of a conventional gasoline powered vehicle. The term that describes this type of vehicle is a hybrid electric vehicle. Many configurations of hybrid electric vehicles have been designed and implemented, namely the series, parallel and power-split configurations. This paper discusses the comparison between Split Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle(SPHEV and Hybrid Electric Vehicle(HEV. Modelling methods such as physics-based Resistive Companion Form technique and Bond Graph method are presented with powertrain component and system modelling examples. The modelling and simulation capability of existing tools such as ADvanced VehIcle SimulatOR (ADVISOR is demonstrated through application examples. Since power electronics is indispensable in hybrid vehicles, the issue of numerical oscillations in dynamic simulations involving power electronics is briefly addressed.

Reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction

CERN Document Server

Rozza, Gianluigi

2014-01-01

This monograph addresses the state of the art of reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction of complex parametrized systems, governed by ordinary and/or partial differential equations, with a special emphasis on real time computing techniques and applications in computational mechanics, bioengineering and computer graphics.  Several topics are covered, including: design, optimization, and control theory in real-time with applications in engineering; data assimilation, geometry registration, and parameter estimation with special attention to real-time computing in biomedical engineering and computational physics; real-time visualization of physics-based simulations in computer science; the treatment of high-dimensional problems in state space, physical space, or parameter space; the interactions between different model reduction and dimensionality reduction approaches; the development of general error estimation frameworks which take into account both model and discretization effects. This...

Data-driven modeling, control and tools for cyber-physical energy systems

Science.gov (United States)

Behl, Madhur

Energy systems are experiencing a gradual but substantial change in moving away from being non-interactive and manually-controlled systems to utilizing tight integration of both cyber (computation, communications, and control) and physical representations guided by first principles based models, at all scales and levels. Furthermore, peak power reduction programs like demand response (DR) are becoming increasingly important as the volatility on the grid continues to increase due to regulation, integration of renewables and extreme weather conditions. In order to shield themselves from the risk of price volatility, end-user electricity consumers must monitor electricity prices and be flexible in the ways they choose to use electricity. This requires the use of control-oriented predictive models of an energy system's dynamics and energy consumption. Such models are needed for understanding and improving the overall energy efficiency and operating costs. However, learning dynamical models using grey/white box approaches is very cost and time prohibitive since it often requires significant financial investments in retrofitting the system with several sensors and hiring domain experts for building the model. We present the use of data-driven methods for making model capture easy and efficient for cyber-physical energy systems. We develop Model-IQ, a methodology for analysis of uncertainty propagation for building inverse modeling and controls. Given a grey-box model structure and real input data from a temporary set of sensors, Model-IQ evaluates the effect of the uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy and to closed-loop control performance. We also developed a statistical method to quantify the bias in the sensor measurement and to determine near optimal sensor placement and density for accurate data collection for model training and control. Using a real building test-bed, we show how performing an uncertainty analysis can reveal trends about

Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

Science.gov (United States)

Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-10-01

Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

Restrictions in Model Reduction for Polymer Chain Models in Dissipative Particle Dynamics

KAUST Repository

Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas

2014-06-06

We model high molecular weight homopolymers in semidilute concentration via Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD). We show that in model reduction methodologies for polymers it is not enough to preserve system properties (i.e., density ρ, pressure p, temperature T, radial distribution function g(r)) but preserving also the characteristic shape and length scale of the polymer chain model is necessary. In this work we apply a DPD-model-reduction methodology for linear polymers recently proposed; and demonstrate why the applicability of this methodology is limited upto certain maximum polymer length, and not suitable for solvent coarse graining.

Restrictions in Model Reduction for Polymer Chain Models in Dissipative Particle Dynamics

KAUST Repository

Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas; Nunes, Suzana Pereira; Calo, Victor M.

2014-01-01

We model high molecular weight homopolymers in semidilute concentration via Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD). We show that in model reduction methodologies for polymers it is not enough to preserve system properties (i.e., density ρ, pressure p, temperature T, radial distribution function g(r)) but preserving also the characteristic shape and length scale of the polymer chain model is necessary. In this work we apply a DPD-model-reduction methodology for linear polymers recently proposed; and demonstrate why the applicability of this methodology is limited upto certain maximum polymer length, and not suitable for solvent coarse graining.

Fast Multiscale Reservoir Simulations using POD-DEIM Model Reduction

KAUST Repository

Ghasemi, Mohammadreza

2015-02-23

In this paper, we present a global-local model reduction for fast multiscale reservoir simulations in highly heterogeneous porous media with applications to optimization and history matching. Our proposed approach identifies a low dimensional structure of the solution space. We introduce an auxiliary variable (the velocity field) in our model reduction that allows achieving a high degree of model reduction. The latter is due to the fact that the velocity field is conservative for any low-order reduced model in our framework. Because a typical global model reduction based on POD is a Galerkin finite element method, and thus it can not guarantee local mass conservation. This can be observed in numerical simulations that use finite volume based approaches. Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) is used to approximate the nonlinear functions of fine-grid functions in Newton iterations. This approach allows achieving the computational cost that is independent of the fine grid dimension. POD snapshots are inexpensively computed using local model reduction techniques based on Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) which provides (1) a hierarchical approximation of snapshot vectors (2) adaptive computations by using coarse grids (3) inexpensive global POD operations in a small dimensional spaces on a coarse grid. By balancing the errors of the global and local reduced-order models, our new methodology can provide an error bound in simulations. Our numerical results, utilizing a two-phase immiscible flow, show a substantial speed-up and we compare our results to the standard POD-DEIM in finite volume setup.

The Effects of Task Clarification, Feedback, and Goal Setting on Student Advisors' Office Behaviors and Customer Service

Science.gov (United States)

Tittelbach, Danielle; DeAngelis, Maureen; Sturmey, Peter; Alvero, Alicia M.

2007-01-01

This study evaluated the effects of feedback, task clarification and goal-setting on office behaviors and customer service of ten undergraduate participants that served as university advisors. A multiple baseline design was implemented across three target behaviors: client greeting, front-desk behaviors, and punctuality. During intervention the…

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

Simulating Study on Drive System Performance for Hybrid Electric Bus Based on ADVISOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Xingxing

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hybrid electric bus has a number of advantages when compared with ordinary passenger cars, but in the dynamic matching and the vehicle performance are difficult to detect, thus limits its development process. In this paper, combined with the actual models, the hybrid electric bus module parameters were modified in the software of ADVISOR (Advanced Vehicle Simulator, main including: module of the vehicle, the wheel module, motor module, a battery module and engine module, three kinds of bus models for A, B and C were established, and the related performance that need to be analyzed was set up, such as acceleration, gradability, emissions and energy utilization and so on, in order to ensure the vehicle running in the same environment and convenient for comparison, a fixed vehicle driving cycles was chose, then the simulation results was analyzed, and the various performance was compared with the dynamic indicators and economic indicators which determined by referencing of traditional city bus standard and each other, and finally, the performance optimal model of B was chose out which can meet the demand, its related performance parameters of the simulation results are as follows: the best gradability is 26%, maximum speed is 72.7km/h, maximum acceleration is 1.7m/s2, 0~50km/h acceleration time is 9.5s and fuel consumption is 25L/km.

Take me where I want to go: Institutional prestige, advisor sponsorship, and academic career placement preferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diogo L Pinheiro

Full Text Available Placement in prestigious research institutions for STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics PhD recipients is generally considered to be optimal. Yet some doctoral recipients are not interested in intensive research careers and instead seek alternative careers, outside but also within academe (for example teaching positions in Liberal Arts Schools. Recent attention to non-academic pathways has expanded our understanding of alternative PhD careers. However, career preferences and placements are also nuanced along the academic pathway. Existing research on academic careers (mostly research-centric has found that certain factors have a significant impact on the prestige of both the institutional placement and the salary of PhD recipients. We understand less, however, about the functioning of career preferences and related placements outside of the top academic research institutions. Our work builds on prior studies of academic career placement to explore the impact that prestige of PhD-granting institution, advisor involvement, and cultural capital have on the extent to which STEM PhDs are placed in their preferred academic institution types. What determines whether an individual with a preference for research oriented institutions works at a Research Extensive university? Or whether an individual with a preference for teaching works at a Liberal Arts college? Using survey data from a nationally representative sample of faculty in biology, biochemistry, civil engineering and mathematics at four different Carnegie Classified institution types (Research Extensive, Research Intensive, Master's I & II, and Liberal Arts Colleges, we examine the relative weight of different individual and institutional characteristics on institutional type placement. We find that doctoral institutional prestige plays a significant role in matching individuals with their preferred institutional type, but that advisor involvement only has an impact on those

Take me where I want to go: Institutional prestige, advisor sponsorship, and academic career placement preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinheiro, Diogo L; Melkers, Julia; Newton, Sunni