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Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. Peircean diagrams of time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can...... be done in terms of analogies and metaphors. In particular, it is attractive to make use of Peirce's diagrams by means of which various kinds of conceptual experimentation can be carried out. This paper investigates how Peircean diagrams can be used within the study of time. In particular, we discuss 1......) the topological properties of time, 2) the implicative structure in tense logic, 3) the notions of open future and branching time models, and finally 4) tenselogical alternatives to branching time models....

  3. A Peircean Inspired Typology of Print Advertising

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Christian; Sørensen, Bent

    2010-01-01

    Based on the hypothesis that Peircean semiotics can reveal how the construction of comprehension is at least partly a function of the structure of composition, the scope of this article is to present a new categorization of print advertising. The categorization consists of six different advertising...... types and is developed on the basis of an analysis of 150 quarto-, half-, and full-page advertisements from the Danish morning paper Berlingske Tidende. There are basically two traditions in advertising research — a semiotic one and a cognitive one. But none of these traditions have been used to suggest...... a possible relation between composition and the effects of comprehension, as the conceptual foundation for a categorization seems, as does the Peircean variant of semiotics, to be very limited in advertising research as such. Generally seen, the purpose of the development of the present categorization...

  4. Decision Policy: Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — A decision support for the Native Adaptive Management Program (NPAM). The documents provide tall and mixed grass decision policies in relation to the management...

  5. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-09

    will enable proactive analysis within the decision support layer to anticipate, request, compute , and pre-position information supporting the decision... Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS) Final Report CDRL: C001 CLIN: 0006 Contract Number: N00014-14-P-1187 Submitted...PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 12/09/2014 Final Report 28 Jul 2014 - 31 Dec 2014 Proactive and

  6. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  7. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  8. Decision criteria of potential solar IPH adapters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perwin, E.; Levine, A.; Mikasa, G.; Noun, R. J.; Schaller, D.

    1981-12-01

    If national programs are to be effective in the research and development of viable renewable resource technologies for the industrial sector, understanding industry's decision criteria will be important. The results of a preliminary investigation of the decision criteria of potential and actual users of solar industrial process heat systems are presented. Detailed interviews were completed with decision-makers from ten manufacturing firms. Based on economic theory, it was assumed that corporate decision-makers assess the expected cost, revenue, and uncertainty of competing investment opportunities. These decision criteria are composed of factors that are financial, technical, and institutional. Clearly, the firms interviewed were more concerned with costs than any other category of decision criteria. Most of the firms also believed that there was less uncertainty with competing investments than with current solar technology. Based on this preliminary investigation, a more extensive survey of industrial firms is suggested to determine a more comprehensive list of significant decision criteria.

  9. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-01-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…

  10. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  11. Information Gathering for Adaptable Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-02-01

    theme is the work on novice-expert differences in problem-solving, which goes back to deGroot . 1I As Newell2 notes, decision-making is a form of problem...26 REFERENCES (Cont’d) 11. A.D. deGroot , Thought and Choice in Chess, Mouton, The Hague, Nether- lands, 1965. 12. A. Newell, "Reasoning, Problem...Gentner and A.L. Stevens (eds.), Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, 1983. 26. W.B. Rouse and N.M. Morris , "On Looking into the Black Box: Prospects and Limits in

  12. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu P; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-05-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory-specifically item versus associative memory-in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to reengage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to reengage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations-such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior.

  13. Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W; Webb, Ryan

    2015-10-01

    Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior.

  14. Decisions from Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change Every morning, Ferran Adrià receives fresh products from his suppliers on Spain‘s Costa Brava. High...involved in this decision? Perhaps. Only a few kilometers from El Bulli, Joan , Josep, and Jordi Roca manage El Celler de Can Roca, currently

  15. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreas Krause,; Daniel Golovin,; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  16. Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Alqerm, Ismail

    2014-05-01

    Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.

  17. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  18. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  19. On the Road to Holistic Decision Making in Adaptive Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahsa Emami-Taba

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.

  20. An Adaptive System of Decision Making for Financial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Titov, Sergey

    2007-01-01

    In the article an adaptive model of decision-making for financial markets based on the method of weighted indicators is considered. The model is built on signals from several standard mechanical trade systems (MTS) by generalizing and redistributing between them weight coefficients that change according to the effectiveness of the MTS. Calculations are per-formed by making use of price dynamic data from the international currency market FOREX.

  1. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  2. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  3. Using an Adaptive Genetic Algorithm to Improve Finance Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FaliangGui; TiesongHu

    2004-01-01

    Optimising both qualitative and quantitative factors is a key challenge in solving construction finance decisions. The semi-structured nature of construction finance optimisation problems precludes conventional optimisation techniques. With a desire to improve the performance of the canonical genetic algorithm (CCA) which is characterised by static crossover and mutation probability, and to provide contractors with a profit-risk trade-off curve and cash flow prediction, an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) model is developed. Ten projects being undertaken by a major construction firm in Hong Kong were used as case studies to evaluate the performance of the genetic algorithm (CA). The results of case study reveal that the ACA outperformed the CGA both in terms of its quality of solutions and the computational time required for a certain level of accuracy. The results also indicate that there is a potential for using the GA for modelling financial decisions should both quantitative and qualitative factors be optimised simultaneously.

  4. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  5. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  6. What is adaptive about adaptive decision making? A parallel constraint satisfaction account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glöckner, Andreas; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Jekel, Marc

    2014-12-01

    There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns - as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Complexity in organizations and environment - adaptive changes and adaptive decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Fabac

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible. In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.

  8. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  9. Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

    2013-11-01

    While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in

  10. Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Berry, Nina M.; Kyker, Ronald D.

    2003-12-01

    Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognize cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.

  11. Adaptive Rangeland Decision-Making and Coping with Drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie M. Roche

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Grazinglands support the livelihoods of millions of people around the world, as well as supply critical ecosystem services. Communities reliant on rain-fed rangelands are potentially the most vulnerable to increasing climate variability given their dependence on highly climate-sensitive resources. Droughts, which are gradual natural hazards, pose substantial and recurrent economic and ecological stresses to these systems. This study examined management decision-making based on survey responses of 479 California ranchers to: (1 identify the types of drought strategies in-place across California’s rangelands and the operation variables driving strategy selection; and (2 examine how individual drought adaptation is enhanced by decision-making factors. Four types of in-place drought strategies were identified and ordered along a gradient of increasing intensity (number of practices used. Significant background variables driving strategy selection were operation experience with drought, type of livestock operation, grazing system, and land ownership types. Information resource networks, goal setting for sustainable natural resources, and management capacity all acted to enhance individual drought adaptation—defined here by active drought planning and the number of both reactive and proactive drought practices used. Overall, analyses revealed that flexibility in management is a key component of adapting to and coping with drought. Climate policy planning should take into account the diversity of strategies that have been developed by ranchers for multiple generations and within the context of their unique operations, as well as support these working landscapes via a range of adaptation and mitigation options to reduce vulnerability across all types of operations.

  12. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  13. Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

  14. Approximation Algorithms for Optimal Decision Trees and Adaptive TSP Problems

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Anupam; Nagarajan, Viswanath; Ravi, R

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of constructing optimal decision trees: given a collection of tests which can disambiguate between a set of $m$ possible diseases, each test having a cost, and the a-priori likelihood of the patient having any particular disease, what is a good adaptive strategy to perform these tests to minimize the expected cost to identify the disease? We settle the approximability of this problem by giving a tight $O(\\log m)$-approximation algorithm. We also consider a more substantial generalization, the Adaptive TSP problem. Given an underlying metric space, a random subset $S$ of cities is drawn from a known distribution, but $S$ is initially unknown to us--we get information about whether any city is in $S$ only when we visit the city in question. What is a good adaptive way of visiting all the cities in the random subset $S$ while minimizing the expected distance traveled? For this problem, we give the first poly-logarithmic approximation, and show that this algorithm is best possible unless w...

  15. Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

    CERN Document Server

    Farid, Dewan Md; Rahman, Mohammad Zahidur; 10.5121/ijnsa.2010.2202

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposed algorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS). We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learn...

  16. "The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Robert P

    2017-02-21

    This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best(2) ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not.

  17. The rationality of intuition: Studying adaptive heuristics in project decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    - environments in which adaptive heuristics typically strive as effective decision tools. Yet, project decisions as a research topic introduce challenges that are currently not considered in the main body of adaptive heuristics research: the issue of group decision making, and the element of an unpredictable......This paper presents a research agenda for studying adaptive heuristics in project decision making. Project decisions are a potentially fruitful research field for adaptive heuristics. These decisions typically take place under time and information constraints, with high complexity and ambiguity...... future that is shaped by the project as it is carried out. The proposed research agenda highlights potential research problems within a descriptive and a prescriptive stream of the research. Furthermore, the article presents conventional methodologies to study adaptive heuristics, discusses...

  18. Toolbox for uncertainty; Introduction of adaptive heuristics as strategies for project decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    2017-01-01

    they are ‘ecologically rational’. The model builds on the individual definitions of ecological rationality and organizes them according to two types of uncertainty (‘knowable’ and ‘unknowable’). Decision problems and heuristics are furthermore grouped by decision task (choice and judgement). The article discusses......This article presents adaptive heuristics as an alternative approach to navigate uncertainty in project decision-making. Adaptive heuristic are a class of simple decision strategies that have received only scant attention in project studies. Yet, they can strive in contexts of high uncertainty...... and limited information, which are the typical project decision context. This article develops a conceptual model that supports a systematic connection between adaptive heuristics and project decisions. Individual adaptive heuristics succeed only in specific decision environments, in which...

  19. Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewan Md. Farid

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposedalgorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learning algorithms by employing on the KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset. The experimental results prove that the proposed algorithm achieved high detection rates (DR andsignificant reduce false positives (FP for different types of network intrusions using limited computational resources

  20. Towards context adaptive privacy decisions in ubiquitous computing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaub, Florian; Könings, Bastian; Weber, Michael; Kargl, Frank

    2012-01-01

    In ubiquitous systems control of privacy settings will be increasingly difficult due to the pervasive nature of sensing and communication capabilities. We identify challenges for privacy decisions in ubiquitous systems and propose a system for in situ privacy decision support. When context changes o

  1. Decision Based Uncertainty Propagation Using Adaptive Gaussian Mixtures

    CERN Document Server

    Terejanu, Gabriel; Singh, Tarunraj; Scott, Peter D

    2011-01-01

    Given a decision process based on the approximate probability density function returned by a data assimilation algorithm, an interaction level between the decision making level and the data assimilation level is designed to incorporate the information held by the decision maker into the data assimilation process. Here the information held by the decision maker is a loss function at a decision time which maps the state space onto real numbers which represent the threat associated with different possible outcomes or states. The new probability density function obtained will address the region of interest, the area in the state space with the highest threat, and will provide overall a better approximation to the true conditional probability density function within it. The approximation used for the probability density function is a Gaussian mixture and a numerical example is presented to illustrate the concept.

  2. Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web Application Server Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Laboratory Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web Application Server Technologies by Jacob C Randall and Jeffrey O...COVERED (From - To) May–Aug 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web Application Server...List of Figures Fig. 1 MyWIDA Web application after calculating impacts ...........................2 Fig. 2 Impact category ranges

  3. Age-related differences in adaptive decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irwin P. Levin

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available While previous research has found that children make more risky decisions than their parents, little is known about the developmental trajectory for the ability to make advantageous decisions. In a sample of children, 5--11 years old, we administered a new risky decision making task in which the relative expected value (EV of the risky and riskless choice options was varied over trials. Younger children (age 5--7 showed significantly less responsiveness to EV differences than their parents on both trials involving risky gains and trials involving risky losses. For older children (age 8--11 this deficit was smaller overall but was greater on loss trials than on gain trials. Children of both ages made more risky choices than adults when risky choices were disadvantageous. We further analyzed these results in terms of children's ability to utilize probability and outcome information, and discussed them in terms of developing brain structures vital for decision making under uncertainty.

  4. Integrating Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP): Towards a Unified Decision Making Framework under Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Weijs, S.

    2016-12-01

    With exogenous factors such as climate change, future demand, resource options, technological and economic constraints, water agency plans should be robust and able to be adapted over time to meet agency goals over a wide range of plausible future conditions. A variety of new approaches and computational tools are being put forward to aid decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) are the two frameworks that have been applied recently to a variety of problems. While RDM facilitates the analysis of trade-offs and the iterative learning about a policy problem, DAPP offers a map of possible routes into the future giving insight into future actions that can be taken if the initial actions prove to be insufficient, thus, alleviating the irreversibility of decisions. This paper first investigates into both approaches, and then suggest a way to combine elements from both so as to produce a more unified decision making framework under deep uncertainty. Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2013 submitted by British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro) is considered for the analyses. Main focus is on identification of scenarios that highlight the vulnerabilities of IRP strategies in different state of the world using RDM approach and then employing DAPP to identify demand and climate-related signposts. This work will inform decision makers and stakeholders to adapt robust plans in upcoming IRP 2018.

  5. Mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions: interaction and adaptability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.O. Zagornaya

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In article are motivated actual problems of the shaping the mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions with provision for specifics of management process operation and developments enterprise in condition of the contradiction of the problems its functional subdivisions. Is it Also designed methods of the shaping the intercepting the functional subdivisions within the framework of procedures budgetation in accordance with principle complex decision making.

  6. Adaptive mode decision with residual motion compensation for distributed video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen

    2013-01-01

    mode in DVC. The adaptive mode decision is not only based on quality of key frames but also the rate of Wyner-Ziv (WZ) frames. To improve noise distribution estimation for a more accurate mode decision, a residual motion compensation is proposed to estimate a current noise residue based on a previously...

  7. A Study on the Design for Object-Oriented Adaptive Decision-Making Teams

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The modern war features a highly distributed coordination. In the face of great time constrains, it is important to change command organizations to adapt to the real environment. Therefore it's a key step to set up adaptive C2 teams. In this paper, the relational problems about distributed C2 organizational structure adaptation are discussed, and the methodology for team decision-making design based on the object-oriented technique is studied.

  8. 3D video bit rate adaptation decision taking using ambient illumination context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Nur Yilmaz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available 3-Dimensional (3D video adaptation decision taking is an open field in which not many researchers have carried out investigations yet compared to 3D video display, coding, etc. Moreover, utilizing ambient illumination as an environmental context for 3D video adaptation decision taking has particularly not been studied in literature to date. In this paper, a user perception model, which is based on determining perception characteristics of a user for a 3D video content viewed under a particular ambient illumination condition, is proposed. Using the proposed model, a 3D video bit rate adaptation decision taking technique is developed to determine the adapted bit rate for the 3D video content to maintain 3D video quality perception by considering the ambient illumination condition changes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is capable of exploiting the changes in ambient illumination level to use network resources more efficiently without sacrificing the 3D video quality perception.

  9. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  10. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Li; Gross, Thilo

    2015-01-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures the phase transition to collective motion in swarming systems and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  11. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian

    of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts...... of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future...... in a cost-effective way under different circumstances. The introduced framework provides an important supplement or replacement of current design practices under influence of climate change....

  12. A Decision Tree-Structured Algorithm of Speaker Adaptation Based on Gaussian Similarity Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Ji; WANG Zuoying

    2001-01-01

    Gaussian Similarity Analysis (GSA)algorithm can be used to estimate the similarity between two Gaussian distributed variables with full covariance matrix. Based on this algorithm, we propose a method in speaker adaptation of covariance. It is different from the traditional algorithms, which mainly focus on the adaptation of mean vector of state observation probability density. A binary decision tree is constructed offline with the similarity measure and the adaptation procedure is data-driven. It can be shown from the experiments that we can get a significant further improvement over the mean vectors adaptation.

  13. Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Pinto

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations, a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

  14. Entropy-functional-based online adaptive decision fusion framework with application to wildfire detection in video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunay, Osman; Toreyin, Behçet Ugur; Kose, Kivanc; Cetin, A Enis

    2012-05-01

    In this paper, an entropy-functional-based online adaptive decision fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several subalgorithms, each of which yields its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular subalgorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights that are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing subalgorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video-based wildfire detection system was developed to evaluate the performance of the decision fusion algorithm. In this case, image data arrive sequentially, and the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower, verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. The simulation results are presented.

  15. A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yueh eHsiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

  16. Adaptive mode decision with residual motion compensation for distributed video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen;

    2015-01-01

    Distributed video coding (DVC) is a coding paradigm that entails low complexity encoding by exploiting the source statistics at the decoder. To improve the DVC coding efficiency, this paper proposes a novel adaptive technique for mode decision to control and take advantage of skip mode and intra...

  17. Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

  18. Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. DeCaro

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1 encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2 garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3 cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.

  19. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... on reviewing the current knowledge on risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems and on potential adaptation options. The paper finds that short and longer term action on climate risk management of energy systems strongly depends on: Strengthening the capacity to model and project climate change and its...

  20. Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl;

    2015-01-01

    rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...

  1. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-01-30

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  2. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Bowen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  3. [Decision making satisfaction in health scale: instrument adapted and validated to Portuguese].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinho, Maria Júlia Costa Marques; Martins, Maria Manuela Ferreira Pereira da Silva; Angelo, Margareth

    2014-01-01

    Decision making is an area of health research that has gained importance both for the partnership models of care that give prominence to the patient and family, either by growing concern about quality and customer satisfaction with the care provided. So we decided to make the cultural adaptation and to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version "The Satisfaction with Decision Scale" de Holmes-Rovner (1996), which aims to assess satisfaction with the decisions taken in health. The sample consisted of 521 nursing students the School of Nursing of Porto. The results of reliability tests show good internal consistency for the total items (Alpha Cronbach = 0.88). The psychometric study allows us to state that the Portuguese version of "The Satisfaction with Decision Scale", we call "Escala da Satisfação com a Decisão em Saúde", is an instrument comparable with the original in terms of validity and reliability.

  4. Development of an Autodiagnostic Adaptive Precision Trainer for Decision Making (ADAPT-DM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    Kelly Hale Design Interactive, Inc., Oviedo, Florida Robert G. Abbott Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico Amy Bolton, Ph.D. Office...holds a doctor of philosophy degree in computer science from the University of New Mexico . He has been a member of the technical staff at Sandia since...Decision Making 14 (5): 331–352. Macklin, C., M. J. Cook, C. S. Angus , C. S. G. Adams, S. Cook, and R. Cooper. 2002. Qualitative analysis of visualisation

  5. Preventing KPI Violations in Business Processes based on Decision Tree Learning and Proactive Runtime Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimka Karastoyanova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of business processes is measured and monitored in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs. If the monitoring results show that the KPI targets are violated, the underlying reasons have to be identified and the process should be adapted accordingly to address the violations. In this paper we propose an integrated monitoring, prediction and adaptation approach for preventing KPI violations of business process instances. KPIs are monitored continuously while the process is executed. Additionally, based on KPI measurements of historical process instances we use decision tree learning to construct classification models which are then used to predict the KPI value of an instance while it is still running. If a KPI violation is predicted, we identify adaptation requirements and adaptation strategies in order to prevent the violation.

  6. Beyond cost-benefit: developing a complete toolkit for adaptation decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Rachel; Chambwera, Muyeye

    2010-06-15

    Cost-benefit analysis has important uses – and crucial blind spots. It represents only one of several economic tools that can be used to assess options for adapting to climate change in developing countries. The Nairobi Work Programme would best serve governments by considering not just cost-benefit approaches, but the entire range of tools. By developing a 'toolkit' that helps users choose from a variety of evaluation methods, we can support adaptation decisions that promote equity, put local people in control and allow for dynamic responses to climate change as it unfolds.

  7. The environment matters: Comparing individuals and dyads in their adaptive use of decision strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliane E. Kaemmer

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Individuals have been shown to adaptively select decision strategies depending on the environment structure. Two experiments extended this research to the group level. Subjects (N = 240 worked either individually or in two-person groups, or dyads, on a multi-attribute paired-comparison task. They were randomly assigned to two different environments that favored one of two prototypical decision strategies---weighted additive or take-the-best (between-subjects design in Experiment 1 and within-subject design in Experiment 2. Performance measures revealed that both individuals and dyads learned to adapt over time. A higher starting and overall performance rate in the environment in which weighted additive performed best led to the conclusion that weighted additive served as a default strategy. When this default strategy had to be replaced, because the environmental structure favored take-the-best, the superior adaptive capacity of dyads became observable in the form of a steeper learning rate. Analyses of nominal dyads indicate that real dyads performed at the level of the best individuals. Fine-grained analyses of information-search data are presented. Results thus point to the strong moderating role of the environment structure when comparing individual with group performance and are discussed within the framework of adaptive strategy selection.

  8. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-09-18

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli L. Larson

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

  10. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulin P

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Paule Poulin,1 Lea Austen,1 Catherine M Scott,2 Michelle Poulin,1 Nadine Gall,2 Judy Seidel,3 René Lafrenière1 1Department of Surgery, 2Knowledge Management, 3Public Health Innovation and Decision Support, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada Purpose: Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods: We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada, for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1 development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2 education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3 evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4 joint evaluation via retreats, 5 synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6 evaluation of the adaptation process. Results: Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion: Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence

  11. How can clinical practice guidelines be adapted to facilitate shared decision making? A qualitative key-informant study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijden, T.T. van der; Pieterse, A.H.; Koelewijn-van Loon, M.S.; Knaapen, L.; Legare, F.; Boivin, A.; Burgers, J.S.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Faber, M.J.; Elwyn, G.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To explore how clinical practice guidelines can be adapted to facilitate shared decision making. METHODS: This was a qualitative key-informant study with group discussions and semi-structured interviews. First, 75 experts in guideline development or shared decision making participated in

  12. Novel Adaptive Decision Threshold Modulation Technique for UWB Direct Chaotic Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Sadoudi

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A new non-coherent chaotic modulation technique based on adaptive decision threshold is proposed for the UltraWideBand (UWB Direct Chaotic Communication (DCC technology. The principal advantages of the proposed technique are: (1 Removing the threshold problem of the classical Chaotic On-Off Keying modulation technique which uses a nonzero decision threshold; (2 Providing a high throughput comparing to the others techniques since it do not uses any delay at the modulation; (3 Reducing the transmitted power, thanks to a transmitted bit energy devised by two. The obtained simulation results show high Bit Error Rate performances of the proposed technique applied in an UWB DCC system. In addition, the new chaotic modulation is more suitable in all DCC-based communications schemes.

  13. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  14. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  15. [Adaptive remodeling of temporomandibular joint following anterior disc displacement and treatment decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Z Y

    2017-03-09

    Anterior disc displacement (ADD) of temporomandibular joint (TMJ) is one of the common oral diseases. The TMJ can be remodeled after disc displacement. The author's recent studies show that remodeled bilaminar zone is similar to the disc in composition and functions. The remodeled condyle can match the disc-like bilaminar zone. The new disc-condylar relationship can, to a certain extent, restore the function of the TMJ. Based on these studies, the author believes that the adaptive remodeling in TMJ has important guiding significance for clinical treatment and discusses the views of the treatment decision for various stages of temporomandibular disorders.

  16. Adaptive channel estimation for soft decision decoding over non-Gaussian optical channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Jing-song; Miao, Tao-tao; Huang, Sheng; Liu, Huan-lin

    2016-10-01

    An adaptive priori likelihood ratio (LLR) estimation method is proposed over non-Gaussian channel in the intensity modulation/direct detection (IM/DD) optical communication systems. Using the nonparametric histogram and the weighted least square linear fitting in the tail regions, the LLR is estimated and used for the soft decision decoding of the low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes. This method can adapt well to the three main kinds of intensity modulation/direct detection (IM/DD) optical channel, i.e., the chi-square channel, the Webb-Gaussian channel and the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. The performance penalty of channel estimation is neglected.

  17. Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gajanan Bhave

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM approaches are considered useful for supporting adaptation decision making, yet case study applications in developing countries are rare. This review paper examines the potential to expand the geographical and sectoral foci of RDM as part of the repertoire of approaches to support adaptation. We review adaptation decision problems hitherto relatively unexplored, for which RDM approaches may have value. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, suggest potential sectors for application and comment on future directions. We identify that data requirements, lack of examples of RDM in actual decision-making, limited applicability for surprise events, and resource constraints are likely to constrain successful application of RDM approaches in developing countries. We discuss opportunities for RDM approaches to address decision problems associated with urban socio-environmental and water-energy-food nexus issues, forest resources management, disaster risk management and conservation management issues. We examine potential entry points for RDM approaches through Environmental Impact Assessments and Strategic Environmental Assessments, which are relatively well established in decision making processes in many developing countries. We conclude that despite some barriers, and with modification, RDM approaches show potential for wider application in developing country contexts.

  18. Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, J.E.; Runge, M.C.; Laskowski, H.P.; Kendall, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring

  19. A decision framework for the adaptive management of an exploited species with implications for marine reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Leah R; Wielgus, Jeffrey; Sala, Enric

    2007-12-01

    Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper (Mycteroperca rosacea) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate (lambda) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate lambda based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the lambda declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive lambda value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of lambda increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.

  20. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  1. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  2. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  3. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David N. Yates

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.

  4. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

  5. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

  6. The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

  7. Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

    2016-12-01

    Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

  8. CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

    Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

  9. Online Adaptive Decision Fusion Framework Based on Entropic Projections onto Convex Sets with Application to Wildfire Detection in Video

    CERN Document Server

    Gunay, Osman; Kose, Kivanc; Cetin, A Enis

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an Entropy functional based online Adaptive Decision Fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several sub-algorithms each of which yielding its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular sub-algorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights which are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing sub-algorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video based wildfire detection system is developed to evaluate the performance of the algorithm in handling the problems where data arrives sequentially. In this case, the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. Simulation results are...

  10. Peircean diagrams of time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can be...

  11. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  12. Adaptive Capacity Within a Mega Project : A Case Study on Planning and Decision-Making in the Face of Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giezen, Mendel; Bertolini, Luca; Salet, Willem

    2015-01-01

    There is a tendency in policy to reduce the complexity of planning and decision-making by simplifying both the process and the scope of projects. However, by framing a planning project's scope or process in a narrow way at an early stage, the possibility of adapting to changes in the context, and

  13. Adaptive Capacity Within a Mega Project : A Case Study on Planning and Decision-Making in the Face of Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giezen, Mendel; Bertolini, Luca; Salet, Willem

    2015-01-01

    There is a tendency in policy to reduce the complexity of planning and decision-making by simplifying both the process and the scope of projects. However, by framing a planning project's scope or process in a narrow way at an early stage, the possibility of adapting to changes in the context, and th

  14. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2011-01-01

    Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

  15. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  16. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  17. VIDEO DENOISING USING SWITCHING ADAPTIVE DECISION BASED ALGORITHM WITH ROBUST MOTION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Jayaraj

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A Non-linear adaptive decision based algorithm with robust motion estimation technique is proposed for removal of impulse noise, Gaussian noise and mixed noise (impulse and Gaussian with edge and fine detail preservation in images and videos. The algorithm includes detection of corrupted pixels and the estimation of values for replacing the corrupted pixels. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is that an appropriate filter is used for replacing the corrupted pixel based on the estimation of the noise variance present in the filtering window. This leads to reduced blurring and better fine detail preservation even at the high mixed noise density. It performs both spatial and temporal filtering for removal of the noises in the filter window of the videos. The Improved Cross Diamond Search Motion Estimation technique uses Least Median Square as a cost function, which shows improved performance than other motion estimation techniques with existing cost functions. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms in the visual point of view and in Peak Signal to Noise Ratio, Mean Square Error and Image Enhancement Factor.

  18. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Alexis B; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

    2017-07-17

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects of ToM or fixed strategy agents with static behaviors or heuristics. Individuals with higher Autism Quotient (AQ) scores cooperated less than subjects with low AQ scores with the ToM agents. In contrast, subjects with higher AQ scores cooperated more with fixed strategy agents. Additionally, subjects with higher AQ scores spent more time than low AQ subjects signaling cooperative intent in games with fixed strategy agents while spending less time signaling cooperation with adaptive agents, indicating a preference toward systemizing behaviors in the face of uncertainty. We conclude that individuals with high levels of autistic traits are less likely to utilize ToM as a cognitive strategy, even when it is beneficial, to achieve a desired outcome.

  19. Adapting EVIAVE methodology as a planning and decision-making tool in Venezuela

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamorano, M., E-mail: zamorano@ugr.es [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Granada, Campus de Fuentenueva s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain); Paolini, A., E-mail: paoliniadriana@ucla.edu.ve [Deanship of Civil Engineering, Department of Hydraulic and Sanitary Engineering, Lisandro Alvarado Central-Western University (Universidad Centroccidental Lisandro Alvarado), Prolongacion Av. La Salle Edificio Antigua Escuela Ferroviaria, Barquisimeto, Lara (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of); Ramos, A., E-mail: ramosr@ugr.es [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Granada, Campus de Fuentenueva s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain); Rodriguez, M.L., E-mail: miguelrg@ugr.es [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Granada, Campus de Fuentenueva s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain)

    2009-12-30

    Landfills in Venezuela have serious problems regarding their location, design and operation. In fact, basic waste disposal is one of the main weaknesses of the municipal waste management in this country. The Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Resources has studied and identified the negative impacts of operating landfills, but no program has been implemented to determine the cause-effect relation of these impacts or to design strategies to counteract with the serious environmental and health risks generated. This paper describes how EVIAVE methodology can be successfully used for landfill diagnosis, and shows how this type of landfill diagnosis was applied in Venezuela. For our research study, we carried out both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the environmental problems generated by 22 landfills in Venezuela. Our study was based on the following environmental indexes: Landfill Environment, Environmental Risk, Environmental Value, and Probability of Contamination. For the purposes of our study, it was first necessary to adapt EVIAVE to the legal system and social context in Venezuela. The results obtained confirmed the applicability of this methodology to Venezuelan landfills. EVIAVE was found to be an effective planning tool that provided crucial information for the development of action plans, which would improve landfill operation, and help make decisions pertaining to their closure, sealing and eventual recovery.

  20. The adaptive response metric: toward an all-hazards tool for planning, decision support, and after-action analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Margaret A; Schuh, Russell G; Pomer, Bruce; Stebbins, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    Local health departments are organized, resourced, and operated primarily for routine public health services. For them, responding to emergencies and disasters requires adaptation to meet the demands of an emergency, and they must reallocate or augment resources, adjust work schedules, and, depending on severity and duration of the event, even compromise routine service outputs. These adaptations occur to varying degrees regardless of the type of emergency or disaster. The Adaptive Response Metric was developed through collaboration between a number of California health departments and university-based preparedness researchers. It measures the degree of "stress" from an emergency response as experienced by local health departments at the level of functional units (eg, nursing, administration, environmental services). Pilot testing of the Adaptive Response Metric indicates its utility for emergency planning, real-time decision making, and after-action analytics.

  1. Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M

    2013-05-08

    Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and

  2. Usability of clinical decision support system as a facilitator for learning the assistive technology adaptation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and

  3. A Brief Investigation of Adaptive Decision Feedback Equalization for Digital HF Links Employing PSK (Phase Shift Keying) Modulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-26

    INVESTIGATION OF ADAPTIVE DECISION FEEDBACK EQUALIZATION FOR DIGITAL HF LINKS EMPLOYING PSKK MODULATION B.E. Sawyer Mission Research Corporation P.O. Drawer 719...IF THE ADDRESSEE IS NO LONGER EMPLOYED BY YOUR ORGANIZATION. 4.’I 4,D % ,=..- ..: O4.’ UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Data...Rot FEEDBACK EQUAL Z FOR IGITAL HF LINKS TcnclRpr PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBERMRC-R-801- 7, AUTHORf,, 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(-) Blair E

  4. Supporting adaptation decisions to address climate related impacts and hazards in the Caribbean (the CARIWIG project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Aidan

    2015-04-01

    Managers and policy makers from regional and national institutions in the Caribbean require knowledge of the likely impacts and hazards arising from the present and future climate that are specific to their responsibility and geographical range, and relevant to their planning time-horizons. Knowledge, experience and the political support to develop appropriate adaptation strategies are also required. However, the climate information available for the region is of limited use as: observational records are intermittent and typically of short duration; climate model projections of the weather suffer from scale and bias issues; and statistical downscaling to provide locally relevant unbiased climate change information remains sporadic. Tropical cyclone activity is a considerable sporadic hazard in the region and yet related weather information is limited to historic events. Further, there is a lack of guidance for managers and policy makers operating with very limited resources to utilize such information within their remit. The CARIWIG project (June 2012 - May 2015) will be presented, reflecting on stakeholder impact, best practice and lessons learned. This project seeks to address the climate service needs of the Caribbean region through a combination of capacity building and improved provision of climate information services. An initial workshop with regional-scale stakeholders initiated a dialogue to develop a realistic shared vision of the needed information services which could be provided by the project. Capacity building is then achieved on a number of levels: knowledge and expertise sharing between project partners; raising understanding and knowledge of resources that support national and regional institutions' adaptation decisions; developing case studies in key sectors to test and demonstrate the information services; training for stakeholder technical staff in the use of the provided services; the development of a support network within and out

  5. Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion

    2014-01-01

    on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...

  6. Interim decision-making strategies in adaptive designs for population selection using time-to-event endpoints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uozumi, Ryuji; Hamada, Chikuma

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive designs in oncology clinical trials with interim analyses for population selection could be used in the development of targeted therapies if a predefined biomarker hypothesis exists. In this article, we consider an interim analysis using overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and both OS and PFS, to determine whether the whole population or only the biomarker-positive population should continue into the subsequent stage of the trial, whereas the final decision is made based on OS data only. In order to increase the probability of selecting the most appropriate population at the interim analysis, we propose an interim decision-making strategy in adaptive designs with correlated endpoints considering the post-progression survival (PPS) magnitudes. In our approach, the interim decision is made on the basis of predictive power by incorporating information on OS as well as PFS to supplement the incomplete OS data. Simulation studies assuming a targeted therapy demonstrated that our interim decision-making procedure performs well in terms of selecting the proper population, especially under a scenario in which PPS affects the correlation between OS and PFS.

  7. Adaptive Handover Decision Algorithm Based on Multi-Influence Factors through Carrier Aggregation Implementation in LTE-Advanced System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibraheem Shayea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-Advanced system has benefited from Carrier Aggregation (CA technology, the advent of CA technology has increased handover scenario probability through user mobility. That leads to a user’s throughput degradation and its outage probability. Therefore, a handover decision algorithm must be designed properly in order to contribute effectively for reducing this phenomenon. In this paper, Multi-Influence Factors for Adaptive Handover Decision Algorithm (MIF-AHODA have been proposed through CA implementation in LTE-Advanced system. MIF-AHODA adaptively makes handover decisions based on different decision algorithms, which are selected based on the handover scenario type and resource availability. Simulation results show that MIF-AHODA enhances system performance better than the other considered algorithms from the literature by 8.3 dB, 46%, and 51% as average gains over all the considered algorithms in terms of SINR, cell-edge spectral efficiency, and outage probability reduction, respectively.

  8. Regional climate modeling and development of climate adaptation decision aids for energy use in the Southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, G.; Darmenova, K.; Apling, D.; Kiley, H.

    2010-12-01

    There is currently a gap between the relatively coarse resolution science data that Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce and the high resolution tailored products that planners need to develop climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Planners need to make decisions on infrastructure, budgets, policy, and programs related to their energy use and consumption and the impacts on the rest of the energy sector. We apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct regional dynamical downscaling in the Southwestern US. The European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) GCM is used to provide initial and boundary conditions. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and a variety of climate adaptation decision aids. We have further developed energy decision aids to translate the output from the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) into future electricity and natural gas demand for several sites in Colorado. These energy decision aids are developed using available energy consumption records from these sites over an historical period. These data are correlated with Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CCD) data from the RCM to develop models of energy use as a function of HDD/CDD. RCM estimates of HDD/CDD are presented for a current and future period along with projections of energy use. Additionally, derived statistical confidence bounds for these products are provided.

  9. Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients’ condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients’ preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient’s recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. Methods The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach

  10. Age and Adaptation: Stronger Decision Updating about Real World Risks in Older Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Wood, Stacey; Hanoch, Yaniv

    2017-09-01

    In later life, people are faced with a multitude of risky decisions that concern their health, finance, and personal security. Older adults often exercise caution in situations that involve risk. In this research, we asked whether older adults are also more responsive to warnings about potential risk. An answer to this question could reveal a factor underlying increased cautiousness in older age. In Study 1, participants decided whether they would engage in risky activities (e.g., using an ATM machine in the street) in four realistic scenarios about which participants could be expected to have relevant knowledge or experience. They then made posterior decisions after listening to audio extracts of real reports relevant to each activity. In Study 2, we explored the role that emotions play in decision updating. As in Study 1, participants made prior and posterior decisions, with the exception that for each scenario the reports were presented in their original audio format (high emotive) or in a written transcript format (low emotive). Following each posterior decision, participants indicated their emotional valence and arousal responses to the reports. In both studies, older adults engaged in fewer risky activities than younger adults, indicative of increased cautiousness in older age, and exhibited stronger decision updating in response to the reports. Older adults also showed stronger emotional responses to the reports, even though emotional responses did not differ for audio and written transcript formats. Finally, age differences in emotional responses to the reports accounted for age differences in decision updating. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Application of Structured Decision Making to an Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options for Sustainable Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John L. Innes

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A logical starting point for climate change adaptation in the forest sector is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This should be followed by implementation of these options and monitoring their success in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context. Here, we implement an approach to identify locally appropriate adaptation options by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners while at the same time, building capacity within this community to implement the results. We engaged 30 forest practitioners who are involved with the implementation of a regional forest management plan in identifying climate change vulnerabilities and evaluating alternative adaptation options. A structured decision-making approach was used to frame the assessment. Practitioners identified 24 adaptation options that they considered important to implement in order to achieve the regional goals and objectives of sustainable forest management in light of climate change.

  12. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  13. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E; Houdayer, Claude; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A

    2016-01-01

    ..., to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays...

  14. Adapted Framework for Data Mining Technique to Improve Decision Support System in an Uncertain Situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Bahgat El Seddawy

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support System (DSS is equivalent synonym as management information systems (MIS. Most of imported data are being used in solutions like data mining (DM. Decision supporting systems include also decisions made upon individual data from external sources, management feeling, and various other data sources not included in business intelligence. Successfully supporting managerial decision-making is critically dependent upon the availability of integrated, high quality information organized and presented in a timely and easily understood manner. Data mining have emerged to meet this need. They serve as anintegrated repository for internal and external data-intelligence critical to understanding and evaluating the business within its environmental context. With the addition of models, analytic tools, and user interfaces, they have the potential to provide actionable information that supports effective problem and opportunity identification, critical decision-making, and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The proposed system will support top level management to make a good decision in any time under any uncertain environment.

  15. Adapted Framework for Data Mining Technique to Improve Decision Support System in an Uncertain Situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hmed Bahgat El Seddawy

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support System (DSS is equivalent synonym as management information systems (MIS. Most of imported data are being used in solutions like data mining (DM. Decision supporting systems include also decisions made upon individual data from external sources, management feeling, and various other data sources not included in business intelligence. Successfully supporting managerial decision-making is critically dependent upon the availability of integrated, high quality information organized and presented in a timely and easily understood manner. Data mining have emerged to meet this need. They serve as anintegrated repository for internal and external data-intelligence critical to understanding and evaluating the business within its environmental context. With the addition of models, analytic tools, and user interfaces, they have the potential to provide actionable information that supports effective problem and opportunity identification, critical decision-making, and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The proposed system will support top level management to make a good decision in any time under any uncertain environment.

  16. Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Chui Betty Khong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

  17. A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sindhu Ravindran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM. IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm.

  18. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM IN THE ADAPTIVE TEACHING RESOURCE IMPLEMENTATION. ANALYSIS OF USE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Kondratyonok

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the analysis of the need and intensity of control to the students at different levels of readiness in accordance with the theoretical model in the implementation of adaptive educational resource. It is proposed to use a factor driving the first impact at each stage of training, depending on the desired result indicator and opportunities of the teacher, the composition and content of training modules adaptive educational resource and budget allocation teacher training load. 

  19. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a new method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’....

  20. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M

    2011-10-22

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity.

  1. A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus Sauvage) Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.

    2016-01-01

    This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary an

  2. A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus Sauvage) Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.

    2016-01-01

    This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary

  3. A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen, LA.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary and secondary data. The latter studies showed that a proportion of the pangasius farms located in the coastal provinces will be affected by salinity intrusion in the dry season. Options to adapt to this are: modify pangasius farming practice, stock other species or stock saline-tolerant pangasius. With research and extension support, farmers can further improve their already adapted practice to deal with salinity or use water recirculation systems for prolonged nursery rearing. A breeding program for saline-tolerant striped catfish requires a medium-to long-term investment (0.4% of the production cost from government and/or private company. Pangasius farms in up- and mid-stream regions and in coastal areas, which are not located within upgraded government dyke-protected areas, will be affected by flooding at the end of each rainy season. This implies an increased cost for dykes to about 0.34% and 0.25% of the total variable costs for one harvest per ha in the up- and mid-stream regions, and in the downstream region, respectively.

  4. Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ting Liu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A brain-computer interface (BCI creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This

  5. Placing Handicapped Students in the Least Restrictive Environment: An Adapted Model for Decision Makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makuch, Gary; And Others

    Intended for local school district personnel, the document suggests a model for assisting decision makers in placing handicapped students in the least restrictive environment (LRE). Basic considerations of a multidisciplinary team in determining the appropriate placement for the handicapped students are listed (including the nature and degree of…

  6. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    a comparison between adaptation measures. This makes the chose among the options easier. Furthermore, the explicit attribution of uncertainty also enables a reduction of the overall uncertainty by identifying the processes which contributes the most. This knowledge can then be used to further reduce...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...... of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment...

  7. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

  8. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  9. Does Fertility Status Influence Impulsivity and Risk Taking in Human Females? Adaptive Influences on Intertemporal Choice and Risky Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnaz Kaighobadi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted—i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  10. Cutthroat cooperation: the effects of team role decisions on adaptation to alternative reward structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beersma, B.; Hollenbeck, J.R.; Conlon, D.E.; Humphrey, S.E.; Moon, H.; Ilgen, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,

  11. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  12. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    Branson of Virgin -Atlantic, and Paul Orfalea of Kinko’s describe cognitive strategies such as thinking in pictures, employing analogies, and...cognitively adaptable in an environment that is inherently dynamic. 10 Entrepreneurs such as John Chambers of Cisco Corporation, Charles Schwab, Richard

  13. Cutthroat cooperation: the effects of team role decisions on adaptation to alternative reward structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beersma, B.; Hollenbeck, J.R.; Conlon, D.E.; Humphrey, S.E.; Moon, H.; Ilgen, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,

  14. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Older adults as adaptive decision makers: evidence from the Iowa Gambling Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Stacey; Busemeyer, Jerome; Koling, Andreas; Cox, Cathy R; Davis, Hasker

    2005-06-01

    Older adults process emotional information differently than younger adults and may demonstrate less of a negativity bias on cognitive tasks. The Iowa Gambling Task designed by A. Bechara, H. Damasio, D. Tranel, and A. R. Damasio (1997) has been used to examine the integration of emotion and cognition in a risky-choice decision task and may give insight into differences in the decision-making strategies in younger and older adults. Eighty-eight younger adults (18-34 years) and 67 older adults (65-88 years) completed the Iowa Gambling Task. Using a theoretical decomposition of the task designed by J. R. Busemeyer and J. C. Stout (2002), the authors found that both groups were successful at solving the task but used very different strategies that reflected each group's strength. For younger adults, that strength was learning and memory. For older adults, that strength was an accurate representation of wins and losses (valence).

  16. The Need for Speed: Accelerating Decision Making on the 7 C’s of Adaptive Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-23

    When they move toward participative leadership, leaders empower their 4 subordinates through delegation of authority. Bottom line , the leader’s...Steven Stebbins points out that the ability to do this is rooted in a variety of competencies: ”creativity, resourcefulness, initiative and...subordinate believes a leader needs to making decisions. Stebbins wrote, “The key concept here is trained intuition. It’s not just a gut feel; one

  17. Small-unit Training for Adaptability and Resilience in Decision Making (STAR-DM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-23

    their initial tactical and ethical dilemmas in a simulated battlefield vice actual combat.” (p. 11). Simulation-based training provides an...support the development of resilient leaders and sound tactical and ethical decision-making at the small unit level. It states: “Our investment in...simulation based training package. First, a video narrative presents the orientation, situation, mission objective and tactical dilemma . The video

  18. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  19. Supervised domain adaptation of decision forests: Transfer of models trained in vitro for in vivo intravascular ultrasound tissue characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conjeti, Sailesh; Katouzian, Amin; Roy, Abhijit Guha; Peter, Loïc; Sheet, Debdoot; Carlier, Stéphane; Laine, Andrew; Navab, Nassir

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a supervised domain adaptation (DA) framework for adapting decision forests in the presence of distribution shift between training (source) and testing (target) domains, given few labeled examples. We introduce a novel method for DA through an error-correcting hierarchical transfer relaxation scheme with domain alignment, feature normalization, and leaf posterior reweighting to correct for the distribution shift between the domains. For the first time we apply DA to the challenging problem of extending in vitro trained forests (source domain) for in vivo applications (target domain). The proof-of-concept is provided for in vivo characterization of atherosclerotic tissues using intravascular ultrasound signals, where presence of flowing blood is a source of distribution shift between the two domains. This potentially leads to misclassification upon direct deployment of in vitro trained classifier, thus motivating the need for DA as obtaining reliable in vivo training labels is often challenging if not infeasible. Exhaustive validations and parameter sensitivity analysis substantiate the reliability of the proposed DA framework and demonstrates improved tissue characterization performance for scenarios where adaptation is conducted in presence of only a few examples. The proposed method can thus be leveraged to reduce annotation costs and improve computational efficiency over conventional retraining approaches.

  20. When genome integrity and cell cycle decisions collide: roles of polo kinases in cellular adaptation to DNA damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Diego; D'Amours, Damien

    2014-09-01

    The drive to proliferate and the need to maintain genome integrity are two of the most powerful forces acting on biological systems. When these forces enter in conflict, such as in the case of cells experiencing DNA damage, feedback mechanisms are activated to ensure that cellular proliferation is stopped and no further damage is introduced while cells repair their chromosomal lesions. In this circumstance, the DNA damage response dominates over the biological drive to proliferate, and may even result in programmed cell death if the damage cannot be repaired efficiently. Interestingly, the drive to proliferate can under specific conditions overcome the DNA damage response and lead to a reactivation of the proliferative program in checkpoint-arrested cells. This phenomenon is known as adaptation to DNA damage and is observed in all eukaryotic species where the process has been studied, including normal and cancer cells in humans. Polo-like kinases (PLKs) are critical regulators of the adaptation response to DNA damage and they play key roles at the interface of cell cycle and checkpoint-related decisions in cells. Here, we review recent progress in defining the specific roles of PLKs in the adaptation process and how this conserved family of eukaryotic kinases can integrate the fundamental need to preserve genomic integrity with effective cellular proliferation.

  1. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  2. Decision making in concurrent multitasking: do people adapt to task interference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menno Nijboer

    Full Text Available While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.

  3. Obstacles to adaptation decisions in the developing world: A case study of coastal protection measures and sea-level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2014-12-01

    International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. Here, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects given the large uncertainty in future climate predictions, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (~20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments.

  4. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  5. The logic of adaptive behavior knowledge representation and algorithms for adaptive sequential decision making under uncertainty in first-order and relational domains

    CERN Document Server

    Van Otterlo, M

    2009-01-01

    Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. This book studies lifting Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning and dynamic programming to the first-order (or, relational) setting.

  6. Real World Data in Adaptive Biomedical Innovation: A Framework for Generating Evidence Fit for Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeweiss, S; Eichler, H-G; Garcia-Altes, A; Chinn, C; Eggimann, A-V; Garner, S; Goettsch, W; Lim, R; Löbker, W; Martin, D; Müller, T; Park, B J; Platt, R; Priddy, S; Ruhl, M; Spooner, A; Vannieuwenhuyse, B; Willke, R J

    2016-12-01

    Analyses of healthcare databases (claims, electronic health records [EHRs]) are useful supplements to clinical trials for generating evidence on the effectiveness, harm, use, and value of medical products in routine care. A constant stream of data from the routine operation of modern healthcare systems, which can be analyzed in rapid cycles, enables incremental evidence development to support accelerated and appropriate access to innovative medicines. Evidentiary needs by regulators, Health Technology Assessment, payers, clinicians, and patients after marketing authorization comprise (1) monitoring of medication performance in routine care, including the materialized effectiveness, harm, and value; (2) identifying new patient strata with added value or unacceptable harms; and (3) monitoring targeted utilization. Adaptive biomedical innovation (ABI) with rapid cycle database analytics is successfully enabled if evidence is meaningful, valid, expedited, and transparent. These principles will bring rigor and credibility to current efforts to increase research efficiency while upholding evidentiary standards required for effective decision-making in healthcare.

  7. An analysis and study of decision tree induction operating under adaptive mode to enhance accuracy and uptime in a dataset introduced to spontaneous variation in data attributes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uttam Chauhan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Many methods exist for the purpose of classification of an unknown dataset. Decision tree induction is one of the well-known methods for classification. Decision tree method operates under two different modes: nonadaptive and adaptive mode. The non adaptive mode of operation is applied when the data set is completely mature and available or the data set is static and their will be no changes in dataset attributes. However when the dataset is likely to have changes in the values and attributes leading to fluctuation i.e., monthly, quarterly or annually, then under the circumstances decision tree method operating under adaptive mode needs to be applied, as the conventional non-adaptive method fails, as it needs to be applied once again starting from scratch on the augmented dataset. This makes things expensive in terms of time and space. Sometimes attributesare added into the dataset, at the same time number of records also increases. This paper mainly studies the behavioral aspects of classification model particularly, when number of attr bute in dataset increase due to spontaneous changes in the value(s/attribute(s. Our investigative studies have shown that accuracy of decision tree model can be maintained when number of attributes including class increase in dataset which increases thenumber of records as well. In addition, accuracy also can be maintained when number of values increase in class attribute of dataset. The way Adaptive mode decision tree method operates is that it reads data instance by instance and incorporates the same through absorption to the said model; update the model according to valueof attribute particular and specific to the instance. As the time required to updating decision tree can be less than introducing it from scratch, thus eliminating the problem of introducing decision tree repeatedly from scratch and at the same time gaining upon memory and time.

  8. Decision-support for climate change adaptation – applications for coastal regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    This Ph.D. project aims at developing a new decision-support framework for managing climate change in coastal areas. The framework is developed in order to facilitate screening of climate change impacts in all coastal areas worldwide and is designed as a complete system for combined multi......-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management. The framework addresses the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding and can be used for hazard management at local, regional and national level. It is developed as a simple system that can be applied in areas with limited...... data availability and institutional capacity and is especially targeted the needs of developing countries. In order to make the framework easily accessible to coastal managers, it is designed as a graphical tool – the Coastal Hazard Wheel – that functions as a key for determining the characteristics...

  9. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Knight

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  10. Speech Enhancement Algorithm Using Sub band Two Step Decision Directed Approach with Adaptive Weighting factor and Noise Masking Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepa Dhanaskodi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Speech Enhancement plays an important role in any of the speech processing systems like speech recognition, mobile communication, hearing aid. Approach: In this work, human perceptual auditory masking effect is incorporated into the single channel speech enhancement algorithm. The algorithm is based on a criterion by which the audible noise may be masked rather than being attenuated and thereby reducing the chance of distortion to speech. The basic decision directed approach is for efficient reduction of musical noise, that includes the estimation of the a priori SNR which is a crucial parameter of the spectral gain, follows the a posteriori SNR with a delay of one frame in speech frames. In this work a simple adaptive speech enhancement technique, using an adaptive sigmoid type function to determine the weighting factor of the TSDD algorithm is employed based on a sub band approach. In turn the spectral estimate is used to obtain a perceptual gain factor. Results: Objective and subjective measures like SNR, MSE, IS distance and were obtained, which shows the ability of the proposed method for efficient enhancement of noisy speech Conclusion/Recommendations: Performance assessment shows that our proposal can achieve a more significant noise reduction and a better spectral estimation of weak speech spectral components from a noisy signal as compared to the conventional speech enhancement algorithm.

  11. Adapting a GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach for Evaluating New Power Generating Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Blevins, Brandon R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Southern California, Edison, CA (United States); Jochem, Warren C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Mays, Gary T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Harrison, Thomas J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bhaduri, Budhendra L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Neish, Bradley S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rose, Amy N. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing need to site new power generating plants that use cleaner energy sources due to increased regulations on air and water pollution and a sociopolitical desire to develop more clean energy sources. To assist utility and energy companies as well as policy-makers in evaluating potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States, a geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is presented in this paper. The presented approach has led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth analysis for siting options. To the utility and energy companies, the tool can quickly and effectively provide feedback on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. However, the tool does not replace the required detailed evaluation of candidate sites. To the policy-makers, the tool provides the ability to analyze the impacts of future energy technology while balancing competing resource use.

  12. A decision support system for adaptive real-time management ofseasonal wetlands in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark

    2001-10-16

    This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperation the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.

  13. The Adaptive Decision-Making Process as a Tool for Integrated Natural Resource Management: Focus, Attitudes, and Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Lim-Applegate

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated natural resource management (INRM and its many closely related approaches are generally considered to be more effective than single-disciplinary approaches for managing the complex resource issues currently facing many countries. INRM approaches aim to integrate several disciplines and involve different stakeholders operating in their own subsystems across different spatial and temporal scales. These approaches focus on identifying management strategies for sustaining natural resource stocks and flows of goods and services as well as their underlying ecological processes. Changes in the behavior of consumers and producers and in the allocation of resources among uses, users, time, and space will be necessary to achieve sustainable development. To accomplish this, changes in focus, attitudes, and approaches to research and management will also be necessary. This paper argues that the key focus of INRM should not be the natural resource itself, but rather the interactions of humans with each other and with their natural environment, and the decisions they make about using and managing resources. Such decision-making processes aim to identify and implement action-oriented strategies and to apply economic and noneconomic instruments that motivate behavioral changes, allowing for different responses to various economic imperatives. This process should be guided by constructivist philosophy and supported by rigorous cross-disciplinary research and active stakeholder participation. It must be compatible with dialectic decision making to reflect the different views and objectives of the stakeholders, the presence of incomplete information, and, at times, the fact that researchers have only a poor understanding of the dynamics of subsystems and their interactions. There must also be iterative, regular monitoring and fine-tuning of the management strategies chosen. We prefer to call the entire process an adaptive decision-making process (ADMP

  14. Critical appraisal of assumptions in chains of model calculations used to project local climate impacts for adaptation decision support—the case of Baakse Beek

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Sluijs, Jeroen; Wardekker, Arjan

    2015-01-01

    In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climat

  15. Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortridge, Julie E; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing concern over deep uncertainty in the risk analysis field as probabilistic models of uncertainty cannot always be confidently determined or agreed upon for many of our most pressing contemporary risk challenges. This is particularly true in the climate change adaptation field, and has prompted the development of a number of frameworks aiming to characterize system vulnerabilities and identify robust alternatives. One such methodology is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how strategies perform over many plausible conditions and then identifies and characterizes those where the strategy fails in a process termed scenario discovery. While many of the problems to which RDM has been applied are characterized by multiple objectives, research to date has provided little insight into how treatment of multiple criteria impacts the failure scenarios identified. In this research, we compare different methods for incorporating multiple objectives into the scenario discovery process to evaluate how they impact the resulting failure scenarios. We use the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, where climatic and environmental uncertainties could impact multiple planned water infrastructure projects, and find that failure scenarios may vary depending on the method used to aggregate multiple criteria. Common methods used to convert multiple attributes into a single utility score can obscure connections between failure scenarios and system performance, limiting the information provided to support decision making. Applying scenario discovery over each performance metric separately provides more nuanced information regarding the relative sensitivity of the objectives to different uncertain parameters, leading to clearer insights on measures that could be taken to improve system robustness and areas where additional research might prove useful. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  17. Peircean Theory, Psychosemiotics, and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Howard A.

    2005-01-01

    The main aim of this article is to describe central elements of, and the relationships among, three interrelated domains of inquiry. The first domain is Charles Peirce's semiotic theory which offers five concepts of special relevance to the other two domains: (a) primary components of the triadic sign, including the object, representamen, and…

  18. Application of Error Management Theory in the Self- adaptive Decision-making%错误管理在自适应决策中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王立刚

    2016-01-01

    A serial of errors occur in the human judgment and decision-making. Counter-intuitively, these biases, however, represent adaptive solutions to the decision-making problems. In this paper,we systemically outline the logical relationship in the self-adaptive decision-making state,through the application of error management theory in the self-adaptive decision-making. Finally this claim strongly suggests that why humans prefer to cooperate with strangers.%人类在判断和决策时总会出现一系列的错误,然而,在违反直觉的情形下,错误偏见本身代表了对决策判断问题的自适应性解决办法。本文描述错误偏见在自适应性决策过程中的逻辑关系,通过对错误管理理论在自适应性决策中的运用,解释了人们为什么愿意与陌生人合作的决策过程。

  19. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  20. The Formation of Rational and Irrational Behaviors in Risky Investment Decision Making: Laboratory Experiment of Coping Theory Implication in Investors’ Adaptation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Wendy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control, investors tended to adapt the profit maximizing strategy (rational. Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control, three (threat-high control and four (threat-low control, they tended to adapt the profit satisfying strategy (rational-emotional, bad news handling strategy (emotional-rational, and self-preserving strategy (irrational respectively. The application of rational strategies are intended to obtain personal benefits and profit, while adapting irrational strategy is intended to recover emotional stability and reduce some other tensions. Another finding showed that for the investors, the relatively irrational decision formation was "harder" than that of rational.

  1. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  2. An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

    2011-01-01

    Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

  3. [The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

    2015-03-01

    To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. A Re-Evaluation of Achromatic Spatiotemporal Vision: Nonoriented Filters are Monocular, they Adapt and Can be Used for Decision-Making at High Flicker Speeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim S. Meese

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Masking, adaptation, and summation paradigms have been used to investigate the characteristics of early spatiotemporal vision. Each has been taken to provide evidence for (i oriented and (ii nonoriented spatial filtering mechanisms. However, subsequent findings suggest that the evidence for nonoriented mechanisms has been misinterpreted: possibly, those experiments revealed the characteristics of suppression (e.g., gain control not excitation, or merely the isotropic subunits of the oriented detecting-mechanisms. To shed light on this, we used all three paradigms to focus on the “high-speed” corner of spatiotemporal vision (low spatial frequency, high temporal frequency where cross-oriented achromatic effects are greatest. We used flickering Gabor patches as targets and a 2IFC procedure for monocular, binocular and dichoptic stimulus presentations. To account for our results we devised a simple model involving an isotropic monocular filter-stage feeding orientation-tuned binocular filters. Both filter stages are adaptable and their outputs are available to the decision-stage following nonlinear contrast transduction. However, the monocular isotropic filters adapt only to high-speed stimuli—consistent with a magnocellular sub-cortical substrate—and benefit decision making only for high-speed stimuli. According to this model, the visual processes revealed by masking, adaptation and summation are related but not identical.

  5. Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Chadwin B

    2011-05-01

    Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.

  6. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kertzscher, Gustavo, E-mail: guke@dtu.dk; Andersen, Claus E., E-mail: clan@dtu.dk [Centre for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark, DTU Nutech, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Tanderup, Kari, E-mail: karitand@rm.dk [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital and Institute of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Norrebrogade 44, DK-8000 Aarhus (Denmark)

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  7. A decision-theoretic approach in the design of an adaptive upper-limb stroke rehabilitation robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huq, Rajibul; Kan, Patricia; Goetschalckx, Robby; Hébert, Debbie; Hoey, Jesse; Mihailidis, Alex

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an automated system for a rehabilitation robotic device that guides stroke patients through an upper-limb reaching task. The system uses a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) as its primary engine for decision-making. The POMDP allows the system to automatically modify exercise parameters to account for the specific needs and abilities of different individuals, and to use these parameters to take appropriate decisions about stroke rehabilitation exercises. The performance of the system was evaluated through various simulations and by comparing the decisions made by the system with those of a human therapist for a single patient. In general, the simulations showed promising results and the therapist thought the system decisions were believable.

  8. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  9. Evaluation Within the Scope of Standa rdization and Adaptation of the Product Decisions Strategies Implemented by Unilever Knorr in the Turkish Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begüm Şahin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization

  10. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-03-08

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  11. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-06-01

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  12. Standardisation vs. adaption : a conjoint experiment on the influence of psychic, cultural and geographical distance on international marketing mix decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraus, Sascha; Meier, Fabian; Eggers, Felix; Bouncken, Ricarda B.; Schuessler, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This paper delivers new insights into how psychic, cultural and geographical distance influence international marketing mix decisions on the basis of a choice-based conjoint analysis with 96 managers from Switzerland and Liechtenstein. In this experiment, the managers had to decide whether the four

  13. Factors influencing smallholder cocoa production; a management analysis of behavioural decision-making processes of technology adaption and application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taher, S.

    1996-01-01

    The objectives of the study were to expand present knowledge on the technology adoption and application rates for production inputs and fermentation processing related to farmers' decision- making, and to formulate an optimal technology application policy, particularly for smallholder cocoa farmers.

  14. Standardisation vs. adaption : a conjoint experiment on the influence of psychic, cultural and geographical distance on international marketing mix decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraus, Sascha; Meier, Fabian; Eggers, Felix; Bouncken, Ricarda B.; Schuessler, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This paper delivers new insights into how psychic, cultural and geographical distance influence international marketing mix decisions on the basis of a choice-based conjoint analysis with 96 managers from Switzerland and Liechtenstein. In this experiment, the managers had to decide whether the four

  15. Coping with climate change uncertainty for adaptation planning: An improved criterion for decision making under uncertainty using UKCP09

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Green

    2014-01-01

    Analyses using sub-samples of the complete probabilistic dataset showed that the Green Z-score had comparable reproducibility to Laplace and improved reproducibility compared to other current decision criteria, and unlike Laplace is able to accommodate different risk attitudes.

  16. Can Protection Motivation Theory explain farmers'adaptation to Climate change/variability decision making in the Gambia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagagnan, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    In the Gambia, Changes in the climate pattern has affected and continue to affect the agriculture sector and therefore calling for effective adaptation policies. The present study aimed to explain farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measure through the protection motivation theory in The Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in all the eight communities of the study area. A transect walk was conducted first followed by a survey with 283 informants. The perception variables were referring to the past 20 years while the stated implementation was addressing the current adaptation practices. Results showed that on one hand, most of the perception variables such as severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers are significantly correlated to protection motivation and on the other hand Protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique are strongly correlated. Structural Equation Modeling confirms the mediation role of Protection motivation between Farmers stated implementation and their perception of climate variability. Decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, decrease of the length of the growing season are factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. Cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation is the main barrier to farmers `protection motivation. Therefore the study suggested that farmers' awareness about climate change/variability should be increased through farmers' field school and awareness campaigns, farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be made accessible to farmers through loans facilities and subsidizes application.

  17. A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. (Louis Beex

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983. An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

  18. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  19. Self-adaptive Decision Model based on Agricultural Knowledge%面向农业领域知识的自适应决策模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李娜; 邓寒冰; 朴在林; 谭东明; 杨萍; 刘君

    2016-01-01

    随着信息技术的快速发展,农业知识和数据在互联网中呈现爆发式增长,如何实现农业信息的精准推送是农业信息化领域所面临的重要问题。为此,提出一种面向农业领域知识的自适应决策模型,设计了面向农业领域知识的思维决策模型AKDM (agriculture knowledge decision-making model),利用软件Agent主动采集网络环境中的知识信息,基于信息内容来推理、分析并导出结果,进而指导知识推送行为。结果表明:将农业本体知识转换成信念、愿望和意图集合,同时利用三者之间的决策推理关系指导知识推送行为,可以实现基于农业领域知识的自适应决策推理过程,且涉及的试验过程为实现农业信息的个性化智能推送提供了一个可行模型参考。%With the rapid development of information technology, agricultural knowledge and data have seen explosive growth in the internet. It has become a major problem facing the field of agricultural informatization to realize the precise pushing of agricultural information. This paper proposes an agricultural knowledge-oriented self-adaption decision-making model, the AKDM (agriculture knowledge decision-making model), which actively collects knowledge and information in the internet using Agent software, and performs reasoning, analyzing and result delivering based on the information collected, and finally giving instructions on knowledge pushing. The result showed it was possible to realize the self-adaption decision-making with regard to agricultural knowledge by converting agricultural knowledge into a cluster of faith, will and intention and guiding information pushing behavior by the relations of decision-making and reasoning among them. Thus, the experiment in this paper provides a feasible model for the intelligent personalized pushing of agricultural information.

  20. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-01-01

    Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction...

  1. Optimal Decision Fusion for Urban Land-Use/Land-Cover Classification Based on Adaptive Differential Evolution Using Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfei Zhong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral images and light detection and ranging (LiDAR data have, respectively, the high spectral resolution and accurate elevation information required for urban land-use/land-cover (LULC classification. To combine the respective advantages of hyperspectral and LiDAR data, this paper proposes an optimal decision fusion method based on adaptive differential evolution, namely ODF-ADE, for urban LULC classification. In the ODF-ADE framework the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM and digital surface model (DSM are extracted to form the feature map. The three different classifiers of the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC, support vector machine (SVM and multinomial logistic regression (MLR are used to classify the extracted features. To find the optimal weights for the different classification maps, weighted voting is used to obtain the classification result and the weights of each classification map are optimized by the differential evolution algorithm which uses a self-adaptive strategy to obtain the parameter adaptively. The final classification map is obtained after post-processing based on conditional random fields (CRF. The experimental results confirm that the proposed algorithm is very effective in urban LULC classification.

  2. Climate-Adapted Soil Cultivation as an Aspect for Sustainable Farming – Task-Technology-Fit of a Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welf Guenther-Lübbers

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.

  3. Space-time adaptive decision feedback neural receivers with data selection for high-data-rate users in DS-CDMA systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lamare, Rodrigo C; Sampaio-Neto, Raimundo

    2008-11-01

    A space-time adaptive decision feedback (DF) receiver using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for joint equalization and interference suppression in direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems equipped with antenna arrays. The proposed receiver structure employs dynamically driven RNNs in the feedforward section for equalization and multiaccess interference (MAI) suppression and a finite impulse response (FIR) linear filter in the feedback section for performing interference cancellation. A data selective gradient algorithm, based upon the set-membership (SM) design framework, is proposed for the estimation of the coefficients of RNN structures and is applied to the estimation of the parameters of the proposed neural receiver structure. Simulation results show that the proposed techniques achieve significant performance gains over existing schemes.

  4. [The territorial expression of health-service planning: scenarios for shared decision-making on the development and adaptation of services on a territorial level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusté, Josep; Frigola, David; Olivet, Miquel

    2008-12-01

    To apply planning criteria on a territorial level, with a forward-looking approach and taking into account the specificities of each location, in the Health Map of Catalonia, scenarios have been constructed for the development and adaptation of services for the 2015 horizon. The territorial scale is that of the 37 areas into which Catalonia has been divided in order to promote a new form of decentralised, combined decision- making, through the Territorial Health Governments. The new territorial health organisation is the substrate which must enable the relationship between professionals and services that share the same reference population to be coordinated. This article deals with the methodology for constructing the scenarios, and a summary is given of the principal action proposals which arise from the map in the aforementioned 37 territories. Detailed content of the territorial scenarios is also given, based on two practical cases.

  5. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariella Siña

    Full Text Available Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  6. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  7. Adaptive models for decision making in production management for thermoelectrical plants; Modelos adaptativos para suporte a decisao na gestao da producao de unidades termeletricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)

  8. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ker, Dai Fei Elmer; Weiss, Lee E; Junkers, Silvina N; Chen, Mei; Yin, Zhaozheng; Sandbothe, Michael F; Huh, Seung-il; Eom, Sungeun; Bise, Ryoma; Osuna-Highley, Elvira; Kanade, Takeo; Campbell, Phil G

    2011-01-01

    Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and developing robotic cell

  9. How Firms Make Boundary Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus

    2014-01-01

    We report findings from an analysis of 234 firm boundary decisions that a manufacturing firm has made during a 10 year period. Extensive interviews with all major decision makers located both at the headquarters and subsidiaries allow us to examine (a) who was involved in each boundary decision......, and (b) how the firm arrived at a particular transactional choice in each decision. We find that decision makers extensively adapt decision structures in order to effectively make governance mode choices. They adapt hierarchy span, i.e. the number of hierarchical levels involved, and expertise span, i.......e. the number of same-level decision makers with dissimilar knowledge basis. We observe that decision makers heavily rely on varying hierarchy and expertise span in order to improve the quality of the decision outcome. Central to the adaption of decision structures is that decision makers, over time...

  10. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Fei Elmer Ker

    Full Text Available Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and

  11. Organizational Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    the customer is the Federal Government subjective bases for decisions were mentioned over three times as frequently as sophisticated methods of... satisfcations ? Much of the answer will depend on organizational antecedents and consequences (Bass, 1981). The Cascade. Based on dissatisfaction with his current...transactions (such as discounts to customers during off-seasons), by anticipating needed changes requiring technical adaptation (e.g. maintaining

  12. Strategic Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation...

  13. An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

    2016-12-01

    One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

  14. Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiwang

    Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of

  15. Critical appraisal of assumptions in chains of model calculations used to project local climate impacts for adaptation decision support—the case of Baakse Beek

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Arjan Wardekker, J.

    2015-04-01

    In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature under different national climate scenarios for a small region in the east of the Netherlands named Baakse Beek. The chain of models sequentially linked in that pilot includes a (future) weather generator and models of respectively subsurface hydrogeology, ground water stocks and flows, soil chemistry, vegetation development, crop yield and nature quality. These models typically have mismatching time step sizes and grid cell sizes. The linking of these models unavoidably involves the making of model assumptions that can hardly be validated, such as those needed to bridge the mismatches in spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and apply a method for the systematic critical appraisal of model assumptions that seeks to identify and characterize the weakest assumptions in a model chain. The critical appraisal of assumptions presented in this paper has been carried out ex-post. For the case of the climate impact model chain for Baakse Beek, the three most problematic assumptions were found to be: land use and land management kept constant over time; model linking of (daily) ground water model output to the (yearly) vegetation model around the root zone; and aggregation of daily output of the soil hydrology model into yearly input of a so called ‘mineralization reduction factor’ (calculated from annual average soil pH and daily soil hydrology) in the soil chemistry model. Overall, the method for critical appraisal of model assumptions presented and tested in this paper yields a rich qualitative insight in model uncertainty and model quality. It promotes reflectivity and learning in the modelling community, and leads to

  16. 基于相似度衡量的决策树自适应迁移%Self-adaptive Transfer for Decision Trees Based on Similarity Metric

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪松; 潘杰; 程玉虎; 曹戈

    2013-01-01

    如何解决迁移学习中的负迁移问题并合理把握迁移的时机与方法,是影响迁移学习广泛应用的关键点.针对这个问题,提出一种基于相似度衡量机制的决策树自适应迁移方法(Self-adaptive transfer for decision trees based on a similarity metric,STDT).首先,根据源任务数据集是否允许访问,自适应地采用成分预测概率或路径预测概率对决策树间的相似性进行判定,其亲和系数作为量化衡量关联任务相似程度的依据.然后,根据多源判定条件确定是否采用多源集成迁移,并将相似度归一化后依次分配给待迁移源决策树作为迁移权值.最后,对源决策树进行集成迁移以辅助目标任务实现决策.基于UCI机器学习库的仿真结果说明,与多源迁移加权求和算法(Weighted sum rule,WSR)和MS-TrAdaBoost相比,STDT能够在保证决策精度的前提下实现更为快速的迁移.

  17. Language and embodied consciousness: A Peircean ontological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    instruction in any language, effective learning will take place only when the ... This development has led to a lack of broad-based initiative and creativity among the .... seem to be part of Cartesian linguistics that, just as in Cartesian autonomous subjectivity, seems to .... PhD Thesis (Rhodes University). Mtenje, A. 2002.

  18. 复杂群决策系统的适应性及其决策机理研究%The Adaptability and Mechanism of Complex Group Decision - making System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘明广

    2012-01-01

    随着社会上各类群决策问题的不断发展,例如上市公司董事会决策、政府宏观规划与战略决策以及网络招投标决策等,所有的这些群决策问题都呈现了一些新特点,传统的群决策理论已逐渐显得无能为力,需要发展新的群决策理论体系。最近兴起的复杂性科学理论为研究此类群决策问题提供了一种新的研究视角。鉴于上述研究背景,本文首先运用复杂适应系统理论分析复杂群决策系统的适应性特性,其次对复杂群决策系统的决策机理进行深入剖析,最后对复杂群决策系统的管理与控制问题进行探讨。%With the development of various types of group decision-making in society, such as the board decision-making of listed companies, the government' s macroeconomic planning and strategic deci- sion-making and network bidding, all of these group decision-making problems have shown some new fea- tures, the traditional theories of group decision-making have gradually become powerless. The recent theo- ries complexity provides a new perspective for group decision-making. Given the above background, this paper analyses the adaptive behavior using the complex adaptive system, studies the complex group deci- sion- making system and investigates the management and control issues about the complex group deci- sion-making system.

  19. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses.

  20. 基于适应值变化率的个体决策粒子群算法%Individual decision particle swarm optimization based on change rate of adaptive value

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    焦国辉; 陈鹏

    2014-01-01

    Traditional particle swarm optimization can determine the quality of the particle by adaptive value. As an intelli-gent agent,each particle has the ability of decision-making,but it is not reflected in the PSO. Therefore,change rate of adap-tive value,a new judgement standard for particle evaluation is proposed. The particles position and corresponding information of the adaptive value are adopted to decide individual optimal position in history and cognitive coefficient in the PSO with the help of individual decision-making method and change rate of adaptive value. Several commonly-used test functions were used in the simulation experiments. The results shows that the algorithm has a better performance than other improved PSOs.%传统的粒子群算法通过粒子的适应值大小来判断粒子好坏,作为智能体,粒子本身有决策能力,而这在粒子群算法中并没有体现出来。因此提出了一种新的粒子好坏的判断标准--适应值变化率。通过个体决策的方法和适应值变化率,利用粒子位置与对应的适应值信息对粒子群算法中的个体历史最优位置和认知系数进行决策。采用几个常用的测试函数进行仿真实验,与其他改进的粒子群算法相比,结果表明该算法具有更好的性能。

  1. A New Method for Detection of Backscattered Signals from Breast Cancer Tumors: Hypothesis Testing Using an Adaptive Entropy-Based Decision Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Vahab Shojaedini

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction In recent years methods based on radio frequency waves have been used for detecting breast cancer. Using theses waves leads to better results in early detection of breast cancer comparing with conventional mammography which has been used during several years. Materials and Methods In this paper, a new method is introduced for detection of backscattered signals which are received by microwave breast radar. In this method, a decision function is constructed based on noise and signal cross-entropy, using hypothesis testing concept. Then noise and signal are separated using the calculated value for the decision function in each time frame. To estimate value of the decision function, discrete wavelet transform and discrete S transform are used. Results Performance of the proposed method was evaluated in two different scenarios, in which the breast was considered homogenous and heterogeneous, respectively. The obtained results showed that the proposed method detected breast backscattered signals 55% and 49% better than existing methods in two above scenarios. Conclusion Performance of S transform was 21% better than discrete wavelet transform in detection of weak backscattered signals. So it can be concluded that hypothesis testing method which uses S coefficients of received wave for construction of its decision function may be a suitable choice for detection of backscattered signals in breast radar.

  2. Changes in Managerial Decision on Pond Management to Adapt to Climate Anomalies in the Coastal Area of Pare-Pare Gulf, District of Pinrang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattah, M. H.; Busaeri, S. R.; Kasnir, M.; Siswanto

    2017-08-01

    The climate anomaly was adapted through the adjustment of tiger shrimp stocking patterns and optimum use of locally endemic Phronima Suppa (PS) to suit the season. Thus, the batches period determined was adjusted to suit climate change dynamics, reducing the shrimp stocking density down to 10.000 - 15.000 per ha and applying PS so the shrimp became tolerant of any environmental stress and pathogen infection. The knowledge of adaptation to climate anomalies, a learning outcome of the field school, managed to increase the average production of tiger shrimp to 217 kg/ha with an average receipt of IDR 22.60 million/ha.

  3. Case-Studies of Decision Support Models for Collaboration in Tactical Mobile Environments / 12th ICCRTS, Adapting C2 to the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Bordetsky, Alex; Friman, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (ICCRTS), June 19-21, 2007 at the Naval War College, Newport, RI. The paper addresses experimental studies of decision support models for collaboration in tactical network-centric operations. This project, supported by partners from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), US Special Operations Command (SOCOM), Swedish Armed Forces, Austria, and Singapore. Naval Postgraduate Schools (NPS) Tactical Ne...

  4. Responsive Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence......, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental...... developments and feeding that information into strategic decisions will enable higher quality outcomes and better adaptive responses for persistent performance. Thus we review relevant parts of the strategic decision making literature to conceptualize the responsive decision making model and propose a study...

  5. Split Decisions, Split Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The lead stories in Nature and Science went in opposite directions this week. Science chose outer space, launching into NASA’s hotly disputed decision to shelve a planned mission to Pluto. Nature plunged into inner space with a story about a report to the European Commission advising against granting “premature” approval to create human embryos for stem-cell research.

  6. Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

    2016-12-01

    Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

  7. Development of a decision support system for the adaptation to climate change using water management as an example; Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsunterstuetzungssystems zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel am Beispiel der Wasserwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinisch, Timo

    2010-07-01

    Water management adaption strategies due to climate change are a very prevailing topic which is often discussed in the media. In the work at hand, the author has treated this subject within the research project of the Federal Ministry of Environment (BMU), Nature Protection and Reactor Safety - coached by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) - and has developed a new decision support system (DSS), named ''WASKlim-EUS''. With the aid of this new system possible future situations of selected water uses - for certain drainage areas - can be demonstrated, taking into account climate change. On the basis of different adaption measures and their evaluation by stakeholders a defined adaption strategy can be implemented. The DSS is based on the methods of fuzzy-logic, the analytic hierarchical process and the utility analysis. Therefore the basis of the climate change and the meterorological and hydrological effects on the water management in Germany in general and on different water uses in particular were explained. Hence the exigency to develop a adaption strategy clearly emerges. The concept of the newly developed WASKlim-EUS - which in a four step configuration ranges from the identification of parameters, the evaluation of current states and measures to the election of the adaption strategy with the according program of measures - was described and the used methods wer explained in detail. By means of three mesoscale study areas the new DSS was put into practice. For the purpose user conferences and stakeholder interviews were carried out and evaluated. For the Wupper catchment need of action was indicated for the sectors of water power plants, cooling water output and input and fishery. For the catchment area of the Salza all considered water uses were identified as vulnerable. For the catchment area of the Upper Iller, need of action was detected for the water situation in general, the fishery and the effluent from sewage treatment plants

  8. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  9. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  10. Graduates of Normal University Career Decision Making Self - efficacy and Its Relationship with Social Adaptiveness%师范毕业生职业决策自我效能感及其与社会适应性的关系

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕超; 张永盛

    2012-01-01

    To study the status of career decision making self - efficacy of college graduates and its relation- ship with social adaptation, 108 college graduates from Northwest Normal University were surveyed by Career Decision Scale for College Students and Students of Social Adaptability Scale. The results showed that: College graduates reported lower levels of decision - making performance ; College graduates who showed different levels of social adaptation also showed different levels of career decision - making performance ; Career decision making child on of College Graduates had no sex difference, but had great differences between only child and non - only the problem -solving dimension.%以108名师范毕业生为研究对象,运用问卷调查法探讨了师范毕业生职业决策自我效能感及其与社会适应性之间的关系。结果发现,师范毕业生的职业决策自我效能感水平不高且不存在性别差异;独生子女和非独生子女的职业决策自我效能感在问题解决维度存在差异;职业决策自我效能感的职业信息维度对师范毕业生的社会适应性有预测作用。

  11. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  12. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  13. Composite collective decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms.

  14. WE-EF-BRD-03: I Want It Now!: Advances in MRI Acquisition, Reconstruction and the Use of Priors to Enable Fast Anatomic and Physiologic Imaging to Inform Guidance and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Y. [Mayo Clinic Arizona (United States)

    2015-06-15

    MRI-guided treatment is a growing area of medicine, particularly in radiotherapy and surgery. The exquisite soft tissue anatomic contrast offered by MRI, along with functional imaging, makes the use of MRI during therapeutic procedures very attractive. Challenging the utility of MRI in the therapy room are many issues including the physics of MRI and the impact on the environment and therapeutic instruments, the impact of the room and instruments on the MRI; safety, space, design and cost. In this session, the applications and challenges of MRI-guided treatment will be described. The session format is: Past, present and future: MRI-guided radiotherapy from 2005 to 2025: Jan Lagendijk Battling Maxwell’s equations: Physics challenges and solutions for hybrid MRI systems: Paul Keall I want it now!: Advances in MRI acquisition, reconstruction and the use of priors to enable fast anatomic and physiologic imaging to inform guidance and adaptation decisions: Yanle Hu MR in the OR: The growth and applications of MRI for interventional radiology and surgery: Rebecca Fahrig Learning Objectives: To understand the history and trajectory of MRI-guided radiotherapy To understand the challenges of integrating MR imaging systems with linear accelerators To understand the latest in fast MRI methods to enable the visualisation of anatomy and physiology on radiotherapy treatment timescales To understand the growing role and challenges of MRI for image-guided surgical procedures My disclosures are publicly available and updated at: http://sydney.edu.au/medicine/radiation-physics/about-us/disclosures.php.

  15. Failing Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    as a controlled cost for achieving organizational goals. Decisions must fail so the organization can succeed. This chapter uses two cases to elaborate on these ideas. By way of introduction, I will reflect on the notion of ‘failing decisions’ within organization and decision theory. This chapter is also propelled...... deals not with traffic delays, but with failing decisions in organizations. The assumption of this chapter is that failing decisions today are as normal as delayed trains. Instead of being the exception, failure is part of the everyday reproduction of organizations – as an uncontrolled effect but also...... by an interest in failure as one way of improving understanding of present-day decision making in organizations....

  16. Career Adaptability in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartung, Paul J.; Porfeli, Erik J.; Vondracek, Fred W.

    2008-01-01

    Childhood marks the dawn of vocational development, involving developmental tasks, transitions, and change. Children must acquire the rudiments of career adaptability to envision a future, make educational and vocational decisions, explore self and occupations, and problem solve. The authors situate child vocational development within human life…

  17. Adaptive Rationality, Adaptive Behavior and Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volchik Vyacheslav, V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic literature focused on understanding decision-making and choice processes reveals a vast collection of approaches to human rationality. Theorists’ attention has moved from absolutely rational, utility-maximizing individuals to boundedly rational and adaptive ones. A number of economists have criticized the concepts of adaptive rationality and adaptive behavior. One of the recent trends in the economic literature is to consider humans irrational. This paper offers an approach which examines adaptive behavior in the context of existing institutions and constantly changing institutional environment. It is assumed that adaptive behavior is a process of evolutionary adjustment to fundamental uncertainty. We emphasize the importance of actors’ engagement in trial and error learning, since if they are involved in this process, they obtain experience and are able to adapt to existing and new institutions. The paper aims at identifying relevant institutions, adaptive mechanisms, informal working rules and practices that influence actors’ behavior in the field of Higher Education in Russia (Rostov Region education services market has been taken as an example. The paper emphasizes the application of qualitative interpretative methods (interviews and discourse analysis in examining actors’ behavior.

  18. Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-07-31

    Laboratory Defense Intelligence College Michoud Station Washington, D.C. 20374 Box 29407 New Orleans, LA 70189 CDR C. Hutchins Code 55 Dr. Arthur Bachrach...Douglas Jensen Washington, D.C. 20363-5100 Carnegie-Mellon University Computer Science Dept. Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Dr. David L. Kleinman Electrical

  19. 基于相似度辅助决策的带宽自适应跟踪算法%Tracking algorithm with adaptive bandwidth based on assistant decision-making of similarity metric

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘翔; 侯志强; 余旺盛; 黄安奇

    2015-01-01

    This paper researched the problem that the traditional Mean-Shift algorithm could not track a size-changing object effectively,and proposed a new algorithm based on assistant decision-making of object similarity metric,to estimate the scale and orientation of a tracking window with adaptive bandwidth.Firstly,it adopted the saliency of object and background to im-prove tracking accuracy for orientation,and then employed the local exhaustive search to compute the similarity metric between object model and the certain region where was around the tracking center in each frame.Finally,it determined the object scale variation by similar pixel amounts.What’s more,it defined a novel bandwidth criterion for improving adaptability in tracking bandwidth.The experimental results prove that the present method can improve the tracking accuracy effectively in orientation between space and scale.%针对传统窗宽固定不变的Mean-Shift跟踪算法不能实时地适应目标尺寸大小变化这一问题,提出了一种基于目标相似度辅助决策的带宽自适应跟踪算法。首先利用目标与背景的特征显著性,提高跟踪算法空间定位准确性;然后利用局部穷搜索的方法,计算目标模型与每一帧目标跟踪中心点附近一定区域的相似性;最后通过统计分析前后帧相似像素点数目变化,确定目标尺度变化情况,从而建立一种自适应更新带宽准则,提高算法对目标尺度变化的自适应性。实验结果表明,改进的算法可以有效地提高Mean-Shift跟踪算法空间和尺度定位准确性。

  20. Population consequences of reproductive decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C; Reynolds, J D; Sutherland, W J

    2000-07-07

    Behaviour can be a key component of animal population ecology yet the population consequences of behavioural decisions are poorly understood. We conducted a behavioural and demographic study of the bitterling Rhodeus sericeus, a freshwater fish that spawns in live unionid mussels. We used a population model incorporating game theory decisions and measurements of demographic parameters in order to provide predictions of population size among 13 populations of this fish. Our model predicted that the observed behavioural spawning decisions, while maximizing individual fitness, cause a significant 6% reduction in population size compared with randomly distributed spawnings. We discuss our findings in the context of the population consequences of adaptive behaviour.

  1. Strategic adaptation to climate change in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Fankhauser, Sam; Soare, Raluca

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the priorities and challenges for Europe as it adapts to the impacts of climate change. Whatever the ultimate level of warming we will experience, adaptation will be a permanent feature of decision making from now on. As such it is important to go about it in a strategic, rational way. A strategic approach to adaptation involves setting priorities, both spatially (where to adapt) and inter-temporally (when to adapt). The paper reviews the available evidence on Europe's exp...

  2. Decision Making and Revealed Preference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

    If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

  3. Integrating Decision Support and Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Antunes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We elaborate on the shifting of decision support systems towards social networking, which is based on the concepts of Web 2.0 and Semantic Web technology. As the characteristics of the relevant components are different from traditional decision support systems, we present necessary adaptations when adopting social networks for decision support within an organization. We also present organizational obstacles when adopting/using such systems and clues to overcome them.

  4. Organizational Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    in architectural competitions and claim that they reflect necessity more than vice. They are ways around the fundamental incommensurability of the alternative design proposals. The garbage can model is used as a framework for making sense of the observed counterintuitive ways of decision making. Its attempt...

  5. How Peircean was the "'Fregean' Revolution" in Logic?

    CERN Document Server

    Anellis, Irving H

    2012-01-01

    The historiography of logic conceives of a Fregean revolution in which modern mathematical logic (also called symbolic logic) has replaced Aristotelian logic. The preeminent expositors of this conception are Jean van Heijenoort (1912-1986) and Donald Angus Gillies. The innovations and characteristics that comprise mathematical logic and distinguish it from Aristotelian logic, according to this conception, created ex nihlo by Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) in his Begriffsschrift of 1879, and with Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) as its chief This position likewise understands the algebraic logic of Augustus De Morgan (1806-1871), George Boole (1815-1864), Charles Sanders Peirce (1838-1914), and Ernst Schr\\"oder (1841-1902) as belonging to the Aristotelian tradition. The "Booleans" are understood, from this vantage point, to merely have rewritten Aristotelian syllogistic in algebraic guise. The most detailed listing and elaboration of Frege's innovations, and the characteristics that distinguish mathematical logic from ...

  6. Learning and Teaching Critical Thinking: From a Peircean Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Kelley

    2009-01-01

    The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…

  7. Single-photon decision maker

    CERN Document Server

    Naruse, Makoto; Drezet, Aurelien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-01-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  8. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  9. Adaptive Biomedical Innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honig, P K; Hirsch, G

    2016-12-01

    Adaptive Biomedical Innovation (ABI) is a multistakeholder approach to product and process innovation aimed at accelerating the delivery of clinical value to patients and society. ABI offers the opportunity to transcend the fragmentation and linearity of decision-making in our current model and create a common collaborative framework that optimizes the benefit and access of new medicines for patients as well as creating a more sustainable innovation ecosystem.

  10. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  11. Adaptation: Needs, Financing and Institutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))

    2008-07-01

    the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

  12. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  13. Organic farming and multi-criteria decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tove; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Dubgaard, Alex;

    Organic food production is a sphere where decision making is multi-facetted and complex. This applies to producers, political decision makers and consumers alike. This paper provides an overview of the economic methods that can aid such multi criteria decision making. We first provide an outline...... studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming....

  14. Engineering an adaptive and socially- aware feedback acquisition.

    OpenAIRE

    Almaliki, Malik Rajab

    2015-01-01

    Self-adaptive software systems are characterised by their ability to monitor changes in their dynamic environment and react to these changes when needed. Adaptation is driven by these changes in the internal state of the system and its external environment. Social Adaptation is a kind of adaptation which gives users’ feedback a primary role in shaping adaptation decisions. Social Adaptation infers and employs users’ collective judgement on the alternative behaviours of a system as the main dr...

  15. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial lighting ceases...

  16. Group Decision Process Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  17. Management Recommendations: Native Adaptive Management Program (NPAM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Management recommendations are a product of the decision support tool for the Native Adaptive Management Program (NPAM). The provides tall and mixed grass management...

  18. Decision theory and decision behaviour

    CERN Document Server

    Rapoport, Anatol

    1998-01-01

    The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.

  19. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  20. Contributions of Minimax Theory to Instructional Decision Making in Intelligent Tutoring Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, H. J.

    1999-01-01

    Formulates decision rules for adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to learning needs in intelligent-tutoring systems. Highlights include minimax decision theory (a minimum information approach), a binomial model, and a comparison of the Bayesian decision component in the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System and the minimax strategy.…

  1. ADAPT Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) Project Lead: Scott Poll Subject Fault diagnosis in electrical power systems Description The Advanced...

  2. Adaptive representations for reinforcement learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Whiteson, S.

    2010-01-01

    This book presents new algorithms for reinforcement learning, a form of machine learning in which an autonomous agent seeks a control policy for a sequential decision task. Since current methods typically rely on manually designed solution representations, agents that automatically adapt their own r

  3. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  4. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  5. Psychological conditions of adaptation to professional stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Tereshenko

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of empirical studies of the occupational stress and adaptation. The study shows that the process of adaptation to stress affect the socio-psychological characteristics. Constructive ways of behavior are: the choice of cooperation, a strong desire to be with people, taking responsibility and decision-making.

  6. Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, B. D.; Dzhelyova, M.; Perrett, D. I.; Barraclough, N. E.

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces, respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs) were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice (2-IFC) adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals. PMID:23801979

  7. Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, B D; Dzhelyova, M; Perrett, D I; Barraclough, N E

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces, respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs) were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice (2-IFC) adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals.

  8. Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce D Keefe

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals.

  9. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

    2015-06-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and

  10. Adaptive response modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campa, Alessandro; Esposito, Giuseppe; Belli, Mauro

    Cellular response to radiation is often modified by a previous delivery of a small "priming" dose: a smaller amount of damage, defined by the end point being investigated, is observed, and for this reason the effect is called adaptive response. An improved understanding of this effect is essential (as much as for the case of the bystander effect) for a reliable radiation risk assessment when low dose irradiations are involved. Experiments on adaptive response have shown that there are a number of factors that strongly influence the occurrence (and the level) of the adaptation. In particular, priming doses and dose rates have to fall in defined ranges; the same is true for the time interval between the delivery of the small priming dose and the irradiation with the main, larger, dose (called in this case challenging dose). Different hypotheses can be formulated on the main mechanism(s) determining the adaptive response: an increased efficiency of DNA repair, an increased level of antioxidant enzymes, an alteration of cell cycle progression, a chromatin conformation change. An experimental clearcut evidence going definitely in the direction of one of these explanations is not yet available. Modelling can be done at different levels. Simple models, relating the amount of damage, through elementary differential equations, to the dose and dose rate experienced by the cell, are relatively easy to handle, and they can be modified to account for the priming irradiation. However, this can hardly be of decisive help in the explanation of the mechanisms, since each parameter of these models often incorporates in an effective way several cellular processes related to the response to radiation. In this presentation we show our attempts to describe adaptive response with models that explicitly contain, as a dynamical variable, the inducible adaptive agent. At a price of a more difficult treatment, this approach is probably more prone to give support to the experimental studies

  11. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  12. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  13. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  14. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-01-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  15. Ambiguous Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    We investigate why some exchange relationships terminate prematurely. We argue that investments in informal governance structures induce premature termination in relationships already governed by formal contracts. The formalized adaptive behavior of formal governance structures and the flexible a...

  16. Toothbrush Adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exceptional Parent, 1987

    1987-01-01

    Suggestions are presented for helping disabled individuals learn to use or adapt toothbrushes for proper dental care. A directory lists dental health instructional materials available from various organizations. (CB)

  17. Hedonic "adaptation"

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to d...

  18. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation? Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning. The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition

  19. Modeling collective & intelligent decision making of multi-cellular populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong-Jun; Mahrou, Bahareh

    2014-01-01

    In the presence of unpredictable disturbances and uncertainties, cells intelligently achieve their goals by sharing information via cell-cell communication and making collective decisions, which are more reliable compared to individual decisions. Inspired by adaptive sensor network algorithms studied in communication engineering, we propose that a multi-cellular adaptive network can convert unreliable decisions by individual cells into a more reliable cell-population decision. It is demonstrated using the effector T helper (a type of immune cell) population, which plays a critical role in initiating immune reactions in response to invading foreign agents (e.g., viruses, bacteria, etc.). While each individual cell follows a simple adaptation rule, it is the combined coordination among multiple cells that leads to the manifestation of "self-organizing" decision making via cell-cell communication.

  20. Informatics Perspectives on Decision Taking

    CERN Document Server

    Bergstra, J A

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for instance: plan, command, assertion, or boolean reply to a question. A decision effect is any consequence of putting a decision outcome into effect. Decision outcomes must be expected by the decider to lead to certain decision effects, by way of their being put into effect. The availability of a model or of a theory of the causal chain leading from a decision outcome to one or more decision effects is assumed for the decision taker, otherwise the decision outcome is merely an utterance. Decision effectiveness measures the decision effects against objectives meant to be served with the decision. Decision taking is positioned amidst many similar notions including: decision making, decision process, decision making proce...

  1. The Dynamics of Strategic Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia

    Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top management...

  2. Group performance and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Norbert L; Tindale, R Scott

    2004-01-01

    Theory and research on small group performance and decision making is reviewed. Recent trends in group performance research have found that process gains as well as losses are possible, and both are frequently explained by situational and procedural contexts that differentially affect motivation and resource coordination. Research has continued on classic topics (e.g., brainstorming, group goal setting, stress, and group performance) and relatively new areas (e.g., collective induction). Group decision making research has focused on preference combination for continuous response distributions and group information processing. New approaches (e.g., group-level signal detection) and traditional topics (e.g., groupthink) are discussed. New directions, such as nonlinear dynamic systems, evolutionary adaptation, and technological advances, should keep small group research vigorous well into the future.

  3. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level, par

  4. Adaptive test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Lars Peter; Rose, Mette

    2010-01-01

    Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale.......Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale....

  5. Procedural Rationality in the Decision-Making of Internationalizing SMEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose;

    ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow......This paper contributes to the growing body of empirical work on how SME decision-makers decide to internationalize in two ways: first, it responds to recent calls for incorporating strategic decision-making literature into understanding SME internationalization decisions. Second, it provides...... a better understanding of under what circumstances, SME decision-makers tend to follow a more rational approach toward internationalization decisions. Specifically, this paper examines a set of contextual variables (the level of perceived international risk, internationalization performance, planned versus...

  6. Game theory and neural basis of social decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2008-04-01

    Decision making in a social group has two distinguishing features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behavior in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behavior of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making and suggested that these features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior.

  7. Promoting Metacognitive Decision-Making in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…

  8. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  9. Automation: Decision Aid or Decision Maker?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skitka, Linda J.

    1998-01-01

    This study clarified that automation bias is something unique to automated decision making contexts, and is not the result of a general tendency toward complacency. By comparing performance on exactly the same events on the same tasks with and without an automated decision aid, we were able to determine that at least the omission error part of automation bias is due to the unique context created by having an automated decision aid, and is not a phenomena that would occur even if people were not in an automated context. However, this study also revealed that having an automated decision aid did lead to modestly improved performance across all non-error events. Participants in the non- automated condition responded with 83.68% accuracy, whereas participants in the automated condition responded with 88.67% accuracy, across all events. Automated decision aids clearly led to better overall performance when they were accurate. People performed almost exactly at the level of reliability as the automation (which across events was 88% reliable). However, also clear, is that the presence of less than 100% accurate automated decision aids creates a context in which new kinds of errors in decision making can occur. Participants in the non-automated condition responded with 97% accuracy on the six "error" events, whereas participants in the automated condition had only a 65% accuracy rate when confronted with those same six events. In short, the presence of an AMA can lead to vigilance decrements that can lead to errors in decision making.

  10. Decision-Making Procedure and Decision Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleson, Brant R.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Strongly confirmed the hypothesis that groups employing an interacting decision procedure would produce better decisions than groups employing procedures that are either nominal (Delphi) or "staticized" (individual judgments statistically pooled). Provides clear and consistent support for the value of social interaction in small group decision…

  11. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  12. Intelligent handoff decision in radio heterogeneous network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Qiang; XU Xiang-hua; WANG Ying-long

    2008-01-01

    In order to improve the accuracy of vertical handoff decision for radio heterogeneous network, this paper proposes an intelligent adaptive multi-criteria vertical handoff (AMVHO) decision algorithm. This algo-rithm uses a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and a modified Elman neural network (MENN). The FIS adopts the crucial criteria of vertical handoff as input variables and makes handoff decision based on the defined rule base. The MENN helps to predict the number of users of the after-bandoff network, which is a pivotal variable of the FIS. Simulation results show that, compared with the conventional method, the AMVHO decision algorithm a-chieves better performance in guaranteeing the quality of service (QoS) of the after-handoff communication.

  13. Adaptation Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul

    2011-11-15

    Efforts to help the world's poor will face crises in coming decades as climate change radically alters conditions. Action Research for Community Adapation in Bangladesh (ARCAB) is an action-research programme on responding to climate change impacts through community-based adaptation. Set in Bangladesh at 20 sites that are vulnerable to floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise, ARCAB will follow impacts and adaptation as they evolve over half a century or more. National and international 'research partners', collaborating with ten NGO 'action partners' with global reach, seek knowledge and solutions applicable worldwide. After a year setting up ARCAB, we share lessons on the programme's design and move into our first research cycle.

  14. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    to be static, and no longer acts as a kind of spatial constancy maintaining stability and order? Moreover, what new potentials open in lighting design? This book is one of four books that is published in connection with the research project entitled LED Lighting; Interdisciplinary LED Lighting Research...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... the investigations of lighting scenarios carried out in two test installations: White Cube and White Box. The test installations are discussed as large-scale experiential instruments. In these test installations we examine what could potentially occur when light using LED technology is integrated and distributed...

  15. Hedonic "adaptation"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Rozin

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to dead bodies as disgust elicitors, by measuring specific types of disgust sensitivity in medical students before and after they have spent a few months dissecting a cadaver. Using the Disgust Scale, we find a significant reduction in disgust responses to death and body envelope violation elicitors, but no significant change in any other specific type of disgust. There is a clear reduction in discomfort at touching a cold dead body, but not in touching a human body which is still warm after death.

  16. ADAPTATION EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Björn PETERS, M.Sc.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Twenty subjects with lower limb disabilities participated in a simulator study. The purpose of the study was to investigate how an Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC system together with two different hand controls for accelerator and brake influenced workload, comfort and driving behaviour and to further develop a method to evaluate vehicle adaptations for drivers with disabilities. The installed ACC system could maintain a constant speed selected and set by the driver and it also adapted speed in order to keep a safe distance to a leading vehicle. Furthermore, it included a stop-and-go function. Two common types of hand controls for accelerator and brake were used. The hand controls were different both with respect to function, single or dual levers, and position, on the steering column or between the front seats. The subjects were all experienced drivers of adapted cars equipped with hand controls. All subjects drove 100km at two occasions, with and without the ACC system available but with the same hand control. Subjective workload was found to be significantly lower and performance better for the ACC condition. The difference in speed variation between manual and ACC supported driving increased with the distance driven which seems to support the previous finding. The subjects thought they could control both speed and distance to leading vehicles better while the ACC was available. ACC driving did not influence reaction time, speed level, lateral position or variation in lateral position. Headway during car following situations was shorter for the ACC condition compared to manual driving. The ACC was well received, trusted and wanted. It was concluded that the ACC system substantially decreased workload, increased comfort and did not influence safety negatively. The only difference found between the two types of hand controls was that drivers using the dual lever system had less variation in lateral position. The applied evaluation method proved

  17. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the rest of your life Having major surgery Getting genetic or cancer screening tests Talking together about your options helps your provider know how you feel and what you value. How Shared Decision Making Works When facing a decision, your ...

  18. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  19. Informatics perspectives on decision taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for in

  20. Informatics perspectives on decision taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for in

  1. Project Decision Chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter

    2015-01-01

    To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection...

  2. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  3. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  4. Decision support for participatory wetland decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosen, H.; Janssen, R.H.H.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Decision support systems can be helpful tools in wetland planning and management. Decision support systems can contribute to efficient exchange of information between experts, stakeholders, decision makers and laypeople. However, the achievements of decision support systems are repeatedly being repo

  5. 影响我国个人捐赠者捐赠决策过程的心理机制--基于情感适应理论的实证研究%The Mechanism Affecting Donation Decision Making Process:An Emotional Adaptation Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋晶

    2014-01-01

    Based on the emotion adaptation theory and the model of helping behavior, this study proposes a model of do-nation decision making process and tests it by a nation-wide sample of 1853 people. The results reveal that donation de-cision making process is a dynamic mechanism in which perceived organization image and advertising appeals appraisals produce emotional responses among the potential donors, emotions subsequently affect donation intention, however, via the mediating role of donation motivation. Besides, previous donation experience is found to mediatedly moderate the de-cision process by an interation effect with emotions on motivation. Namely, when the potential donor has more previous donation experiences, the effect of emotions on motivation and intension attenuates, visa versa. Theoretial and manageri-al contributions are addressed.%基于帮助决策模型和情感适应理论,本研究建立了我国个人捐赠者的捐赠决策模型,并通过发放全国性问卷进行数据搜集,验证了刺激→情感→动机→意向这一动态心理机制。研究结果显示我国个人捐赠行为是一个动态的心理决策过程,其中由公益组织传递的组织形象和广告诉求经过了潜在捐赠人的评价而产生了不同的情感状态,该情感状态诱发利己动机或者利他动机继而影响其捐赠意愿。此外,个人捐赠经历与情感状态交互作用于动机并对捐赠意愿产生影响,即在个人捐赠经历多的情况下,由感知组织形象和广告诉求评价所引发的情感对于捐赠意愿的影响较小;而个人捐赠经历少的情况下,该情感对捐赠意愿的影响较大。

  6. Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2006-01-01

    Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

  7. A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

    2017-07-01

    In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

  8. Making decisions with unknown sensory reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deneve, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides a "chicken and egg" problem: to know how quickly we should integrate the sensory input and set the optimal decision threshold, the reliability of the sensory observations must be known in advance. Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome. We consider here a Bayesian decision model that simultaneously infers the probability of two different choices and at the same time estimates the reliability of the sensory information on which this choice is based. We show that this can be achieved within a single trial, based on the noisy responses of sensory spiking neurons. The resulting model is a non-linear diffusion to bound where the weight of the sensory inputs and the decision threshold are both dynamically changing over time. In difficult decision trials, early sensory inputs have a stronger impact on the decision, and the threshold collapses such that choices are made faster but with low accuracy. The reverse is true in easy trials: the sensory weight and the threshold increase over time, leading to slower decisions but at much higher accuracy. In contrast to standard diffusion models, adaptive sensory weights construct an accurate representation for the probability of each choice. This information can then be combined appropriately with other unreliable cues, such as priors. We show that this model can account for recent findings in a motion discrimination task, and can be implemented in a neural architecture using fast Hebbian learning.

  9. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  10. Strategic erp selection using multicriteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In a growing market that represents more than 21 billion dollars in world’s economy, the Enterprise Resource Planning systems are becoming indispensable for companies of all sizes. Therefore, the companies need to adapt themselves to the market and choose the most adequate system to fit their needs in order to maximize the benefits and minimize the required investments concerning the systems. This paper utilizes Multicriteria Decision Analysis through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process to build a decision model for an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning choice. The model take into account 16 criteria, which are based on the literature review adapted for the needs of the company needs. The systems which were evaluated are provided by three companies that dominate the world market of ERP suppliers.

  11. Adaptive management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rist, Lucy; Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Frost, Peter

    2013-01-01

    in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how...... the concept might be further assessed. AM is currently being used to describe many different management contexts, scales and locations. Few authors define the term explicitly or describe how it offers a means to improve management outcomes in their specific management context. Many do not adhere to the idea......Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used...

  12. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.

    2013-01-01

    scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making......We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder...

  13. Portfolios of adaptation investments in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Botzen, Wouter; Werners, Saskia E.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in MPT

  14. Portfolios of adaptation investments in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Botzen, Wouter; Werners, Saskia E.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in

  15. Portfolios of adaptation investments in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Botzen, Wouter; Werners, Saskia E.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in MPT

  16. Cost benefit analysis for climate change adaption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Weikard, H.P.; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Ansink, E.J.H.; Bruin, de K.; Rietveld, P.; Bockarjova, M.; Hofkes, M.; Brouwer, R.; Dekker, T.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this programme was on the development of decision making tools based on cost benefit analysis under uncertainty, for analysing adaptation and mitigation options related to spatial planning in the Netherlands. The full programme focused on the methodological issues for cost benefit analy

  17. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  18. Analysing Decisive Stochastic Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand, Nathalie; Bouyer, Patricia; Brihaye, Thomas; Carlier, Pierre,

    2016-01-01

    International audience; In 2007, Abdulla et al. introduced the elegant concept of decisive Markov chain. Intuitively, de-cisiveness allows one to lift the good properties of finite Markov chains to infinite Markov chains. For instance, the approximate quantitative reachability problem can be solved for decisive Markov chains (enjoying reasonable effectiveness assumptions) including probabilistic lossy channel systems and probabilistic vector addition systems with states. In this paper, we ext...

  19. Decision making under indeterminacy

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, JRG

    2014-01-01

    Decisions are made under uncertainty when there are distinct outcomes of a given action, and one is uncertain to which the act will lead. Decisions are made under indeterminacy when there are distinct outcomes of a given action, and it is indeterminate to which the act will lead. This paper develops a theory of (synchronic and diachronic) decision-making under indeterminacy that portrays the rational response to such situations as inconstant. Rational agents have to capriciously and randomly ...

  20. Decision Making By Children

    OpenAIRE

    Lundberg, Shelly; Romich, Jennifer; Tsang, Kwok P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the determinants of decision-making power by children and young adolescents. Moving beyond previous economic models that treat children as goods consumed by adults rather than agents, we develop a noncooperative model of parental control of child behavior and child resistance. Using child reports of decision-making and psychological and cognitive measures from the NLSY79 Child Supplement, we examine the determinants of shared and sole decision-making in seven domains...

  1. Decision support basics

    CERN Document Server

    Power, Daniel J

    2009-01-01

    This book is targeted to busy managers and MBA students who need to grasp the basics of computerized decision support. Some of the topics covered include: What is a DSS? What do managers need to know about computerized decision support? And how can managers identify opportunities to create innovative DSS? Overall the book addresses 35 fundamental questions that are relevant to understanding computerized decision support.

  2. A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

    Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

  3. Decision making in specialist forensic psychiatric (the psychological aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmakova E.V.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of a study of psychological factors of decision making amongforensic psychiatric specialists. Given the survey data of10 medical psychologists and 10 psychiatrists carrying out compulsory treatment in the psychiatric hospital №5, Moscow Department of Public Health, in comparison with the control group, consisting of professionals working in the field of education, manufacturing, services and technology. Methodical complex included: 1. The Epstein questionnaire of the intuitive style (adaptation Kornilova T. V., Kornilov S. A.; A new questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty (Kornilova T. V.; Melbourne questionnaire of decision making (adaptation T. V.Kornilova; The questionnaire «Personal factors of decision making»(T.V. Kornilova; TheV. Smecalo and V. M. Kucher method; The Tsvetkova Method; 7. The questionnaire «Styles of thinking» by R. Bramsonand Harrison (adaptation of A. A. Alekseev; 8.The questionnaire «Scale of base convictions» (R.Yanov-Boulemane, adaptation M.A. Padun, A.V. Kotelnikov; 9. The check-list aimed to identify the type of decisions taken by the expert in professional activity, their frequency, importance, subjective evaluation is necessary for decision making qualities and to evaluate the most significant opinions of other persons in the decision-making process. There were defined the characteristics of decision making depending on gender. The relationships between type of activity and frequency of occurrence of different types of decisions in professional activities of specialists were revealed. Analyzed the relationship between consideration of the views of others when making decisions and activity.

  4. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  5. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply....... This paper offers an ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision making processes in businesses. The ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ is based on empirical...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk...

  6. Career adaptability profiles and their relationship to adaptivity and adapting

    OpenAIRE

    Hirschi, Andreas; Valero, Domingo

    2015-01-01

    Research on career adaptability predominantly uses variable-centered approaches that focus on the average effects in terms of the predictors and outcomes within a given sample. Extending this research, the present paper used a person-centered approach to determine whether subgroups with distinct adaptability profiles in terms of concern, control, curiosity and confidence can be identified. We also explored the relationship between the various adaptability profiles and adapting (career plannin...

  7. A New Kind of Economy is Born - Social Decision-Makers Beat the "Homo Economicus"

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    The Internet and Social Media change our way of decision-making. We are no longer the independent decision makers we used to be. Instead, we have become networked minds, social decision-makers, more than ever before. This has several fundamental implications. First of all, our economic theories must change, and second, our economic institutions must be adapted to support the social decision-maker, the "homo socialis", rather than tailored to the perfect egoist, known as "homo economicus".

  8. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  9. The Relationship between Spirituality, Religiousness, and Career Adaptability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Ryan D.; Blustein, David L.

    2005-01-01

    The present study examined the relationship between spirituality, religiousness, and career adaptability using a sample of undergraduate students (N=144). We proposed that higher levels of religiousness and spirituality would predict higher levels of career adaptability, defined in this study by career decision self-efficacy and career choice…

  10. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  11. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  12. Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2010-01-01

    Climate is constantly changing, prompting natural and managed ecosystems to adjust. As a natural process, adaptation refers to the reactive changes that species and ecosystems make in response to environmental changes. With human intervention, adaptation refers to management actions and decisions that help ecological, social, and economic systems accommodate challenges...

  13. Games and Platform Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan

    2007-01-01

    is the application of on-line games in order to provide training for decision makers and in order to generate overview over the implications of platform decisions. However, games have to be placed in a context with other methods and we argue that a mixture of games, workshops, and simulations can provide improved...

  14. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  15. Difference Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moeller, Jesper; Lichtenberg, Jacob; Andersen, Henrik Reif;

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a new data structure, difference decision diagrams (DDDs), for representing a Boolean logic over inequalities of the form $x-y......This paper describes a new data structure, difference decision diagrams (DDDs), for representing a Boolean logic over inequalities of the form $x-y...

  16. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  17. Food Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van Floor; Charbonnier, Lisette; Smeets, Paul A.M.

    2016-01-01

    Food decisions determine energy intake. Since overconsumption is the main driver of obesity, the effects of weight status on food decision-making are of increasing interest. An additional factor of interest is age, given the rise in childhood obesity, weight gain with aging, and the increased

  18. Decisiveness indices are semiindices

    OpenAIRE

    Freixas Bosch, Josep; Pons Vallès, Montserrat

    2016-01-01

    In this note we prove that any decisiveness index, defined for any voter as the probability of him/her being decisive, is a semiindex when the probability distribution over coalitions is anonymous, and it is a semiindex with binomial coefficients when the probability over coalitions is anonymous and independent. Peer Reviewed

  19. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  20. Games and Platform Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan

    2007-01-01

    is the application of on-line games in order to provide training for decision makers and in order to generate overview over the implications of platform decisions. However, games have to be placed in a context with other methods and we argue that a mixture of games, workshops, and simulations can provide improved...

  1. Decision Points in Cataloging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Franklyn F.

    Libraries are frequently faced with policy decisions which can affect the quality and cost of library services for years to come. This point can be illustrated by citing examples of decisions made at the University of Wisconsin Library in the areas of: (1) conforming to national cataloging standards; (2) producing catalog cards in-house; and (3)…

  2. Improving Educational Administrative Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, A. E.

    This paper discusses the financial crisis facing public education in the United States today and argues that the most effective response to this crisis is to improve the decision-making skills of educational administrators. Based on a review of the literature on administrative decision-making and organizational change, the author examines several…

  3. Food Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van Floor; Charbonnier, Lisette; Smeets, Paul A.M.

    2016-01-01

    Food decisions determine energy intake. Since overconsumption is the main driver of obesity, the effects of weight status on food decision-making are of increasing interest. An additional factor of interest is age, given the rise in childhood obesity, weight gain with aging, and the increased cha

  4. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John Ernest

    with critical problems on daily basis. As such, they tend to combine experience-based knowledge with intuition and analysis to inform their decisions. Their decision making processes become even more complex when their companies operate within international contexts. It is therefore appropriate to teach...

  5. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  6. Real Life Decision Optimization Model

    OpenAIRE

    Raju, Naga; Reddy, Diwakar; Reddy, Rajeswara; Krishnaiah, G

    2016-01-01

    In real life scientific and engineering problems decision making is common practice. Decision making include single decision maker or group of decision makers. Decision maker’s expressions consists imprecise, inconsistent and indeterminate information. Also, the decision maker cannot select the best solution in unidirectional (single goal) way. Therefore, proposed model adopts decision makers’ opinions in Neutrosophic Values (SVNS/INV) which effectively deals imprecise, inconsistent and indet...

  7. Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

  8. Decision Making on AUVs for adaptive minehunting surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giodini, S.; Hunter, A.J.; Naus, H.W.L.; Bakker, B.; Bekers, D.J.; Ditzel, M.; Vossen, R. van; Dugelay, S.; Baralli, F.; Beckers, A.L.D.

    2014-01-01

    Minehunting operations can benefit from the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) because these vehicles are able to acquire high-resolution images of the seabed leaving the man out of the minefield. However, because there are severe communication constraints between the AUV and the control

  9. Decision Making on AUVs for adaptive minehunting surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giodini, S.; Hunter, A.J.; Naus, H.W.L.; Bakker, B.; Bekers, D.J.; Ditzel, M.; Vossen, R. van; Dugelay, S.; Baralli, F.; Beckers, A.L.D.

    2014-01-01

    Minehunting operations can benefit from the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) because these vehicles are able to acquire high-resolution images of the seabed leaving the man out of the minefield. However, because there are severe communication constraints between the AUV and the control p

  10. How brains make decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Yukalov, V I

    2014-01-01

    This chapter, dedicated to the memory of Mino Freund, summarizes the Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) that we have developed in a series of publications since 2008. We formulate a general mathematical scheme of how decisions are taken, using the point of view of psychological and cognitive sciences, without touching physiological aspects. The basic principles of how intelligence acts are discussed. The human brain processes involved in decisions are argued to be principally different from straightforward computer operations. The difference lies in the conscious-subconscious duality of the decision making process and the role of emotions that compete with utility optimization. The most general approach for characterizing the process of decision making, taking into account the conscious-subconscious duality, uses the framework of functional analysis in Hilbert spaces, similarly to that used in the quantum theory of measurements. This does not imply that the brain is a quantum system, but just allows for the simple...

  11. Modulators of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doya, Kenji

    2008-04-01

    Human and animal decisions are modulated by a variety of environmental and intrinsic contexts. Here I consider computational factors that can affect decision making and review anatomical structures and neurochemical systems that are related to contextual modulation of decision making. Expectation of a high reward can motivate a subject to go for an action despite a large cost, a decision that is influenced by dopamine in the anterior cingulate cortex. Uncertainty of action outcomes can promote risk taking and exploratory choices, in which norepinephrine and the orbitofrontal cortex appear to be involved. Predictable environments should facilitate consideration of longer-delayed rewards, which depends on serotonin in the dorsal striatum and dorsal prefrontal cortex. This article aims to sort out factors that affect the process of decision making from the viewpoint of reinforcement learning theory and to bridge between such computational needs and their neurophysiological substrates.

  12. Modeling of processes of an adaptive business management

    OpenAIRE

    Karev Dmitry Vladimirovich; Karev Vladimir Petrovich

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of the analysis of systems of adaptive management board business proposed the original version of the real system of adaptive management, the basis of which used dynamic recursive model cash flow forecast and real data. Proposed definitions and the simulation of scales and intervals of model time in the control system, as well as the thresholds observations and conditions of changing (correction) of the administrative decisions. The process of adaptive management is illustrated o...

  13. Is forest insurance a relevant vector to induce adaptation efforts to climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Couture, Stéphane; Pannequin, Francois

    2017-01-01

    Key message Insurance might be an efficient tool to strengthen adaptation of forest management to climate change. A theoretical model under uncertainty is proposed to highlight the effect, on adaptation decisions, of considering adaptation efforts in forest insurance contracts. Results show that insurance is relevant to increase adaptation efforts under some realistic conditions on forest owner's uncertainty and risk preferences, and on the observability or not of adaptation efforts. Context ...

  14. Differential evolution for many-particle adaptive quantum metrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovett, Neil B; Crosnier, Cécile; Perarnau-Llobet, Martí; Sanders, Barry C

    2013-05-31

    We devise powerful algorithms based on differential evolution for adaptive many-particle quantum metrology. Our new approach delivers adaptive quantum metrology policies for feedback control that are orders-of-magnitude more efficient and surpass the few-dozen-particle limitation arising in methods based on particle-swarm optimization. We apply our method to the binary-decision-tree model for quantum-enhanced phase estimation as well as to a new problem: a decision tree for adaptive estimation of the unknown bias of a quantum coin in a quantum walk and show how this latter case can be realized experimentally.

  15. Decision rules and group rationality: cognitive gain or standstill?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru Lucian Curşeu

    Full Text Available Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group, and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.

  16. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G. [Programa de Graduados e Investigacion en Ingenieria Electrica. Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Instituto Tecnologico de Morelia. Av. Tecnologico 1500, Col. Lomas de Santiaguito 58120. Morelia, Mich. (Mexico); Sheble, Gerald B. [INESC Porto, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto (Portugal)

    2010-07-15

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  17. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  18. Robustness and Adaptiveness Analysis of Future Fleets

    CERN Document Server

    Wesolkowski, Slawomir; Whitacre, James M; Bender, Axel; Abbass, Hussein

    2009-01-01

    Making decisions about the structure of a future military fleet is a challenging task. Several issues need to be considered such as the existence of multiple competing objectives and the complexity of the operating environment. A particular challenge is posed by the various types of uncertainty that the future might hold. It is uncertain what future events might be encountered; how fleet design decisions will influence and shape the future; and how present and future decision makers will act based on available information, their personal biases regarding the importance of different objectives, and their economic preferences. In order to assist strategic decision-making, an analysis of future fleet options needs to account for conditions in which these different classes of uncertainty are exposed. It is important to understand what assumptions a particular fleet is robust to, what the fleet can readily adapt to, and what conditions present clear risks to the fleet. We call this the analysis of a fleet's strate...

  19. Collective decision making in bacterial viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O

    2008-09-15

    For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.

  20. Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

    2014-02-01

    Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

  1. Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

  2. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  3. Adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Xianqiang; YANG Yuanxi

    2006-01-01

    The key problems in applying the adaptively robust filtering to navigation are to establish an equivalent weight matrix for the measurements and a suitable adaptive factor for balancing the contributions of the measurements and the predicted state information to the state parameter estimates. In this paper, an adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors was proposed, based on the principles of the adaptively robust filtering and bi-factor robust estimation for correlated observations. According to the constant velocity model of Kalman filtering, the state parameter vector was divided into two groups, namely position and velocity. The estimator of the adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors was derived, and the calculation expressions of the classified adaptive factors were presented. Test results show that the adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors is not only robust in controlling the measurement outliers and the kinematic state disturbing but also reasonable in balancing the contributions of the predicted position and velocity, respectively, and its filtering accuracy is superior to the adaptively robust filter with single adaptive factor based on the discrepancy of the predicted position or the predicted velocity.

  4. Supporting Adaptive and Adaptable Hypermedia Presentation Semantics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulterman, D.C.A.; Rutledge, L.; Hardman, L.; Ossenbruggen, J.R. van

    1999-01-01

    Having the content of a presentation adapt to the needs, resources and prior activities of a user can be an important benefit of electronic documents. While part of this adaptation is related to the encodings of individual data streams, much of the adaptation can/should be guided by the semantics in

  5. Organizational Decision Making: The Luhmannian Decision Communication Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Mykkänen, Markus; Tampere, Kaja

    2014-01-01

    Studies of organizational communication around decision-making and decision communication have largely concerned how decisions should be made and promoted. Less efforts have focused on how decisions should be communicated inside organizations and how they influence organizational effectiveness and performance. This study examined decision communication in an engineer-based organization 2008–2009. Key findings demonstrate that effective decision communication can be considered as the backbone ...

  6. Emotion and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-01

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  7. Minimal Representation and Decision Making for Networked Autonomous Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-27

    A new adaptive formation control method is developed for a large number of spacecraft or robots moving on adaptive network topologies . The...adversarial nodes are able not only to impede convergence toward consensus, but can also affect global changes in the topology of the communication...Perform Global Linear Computations. IEEE Conference and Decision and Control, 2015. Submitted. 12. H. Park , S. Hutchinson, "A Distributed Optimal Strategy

  8. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  9. Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stafford Smith, Mark; Horrocks, Lisa; Harvey, Alex; Hamilton, Clive

    2011-01-13

    With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

  10. Personalized Adaptive Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kravcik, Milos; Specht, Marcus; Naeve, Ambjorn

    2009-01-01

    Kravcik, M., Specht, M., & Naeve, A. (2008). Personalized Adaptive Learning. Presentation of PROLEARN WP1 Personalized Adaptive Learning at the final review meeting. February, 27, 2008, Hannover, Germany.

  11. Ethical decision-making in hospice care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Andreas; Breitsameter, Christof

    2015-05-01

    Hospices are based on a holistic approach which places the physical, psychological, social and spiritual welfare of their patients at the forefront of their work. Furthermore, they draw up their own mission statements which they are at pains to follow and seek to conduct their work in accordance with codes of ethics and standards of care. Our study researched what form the processes and degrees of latitude in decision-making take in practice when questions of an ethical and ethically relevant nature arise. We used a qualitative approach. Data collection and evaluation was based on the methods of grounded theory. The study was reported to the relevant Ethics Commission who had raised no objections following the submission of the study protocol. The study at the hospices was approved by the directors of the hospices and the nursing teams. The rights of the participants were protected by obtaining informed consent. Medication in the prefinal phase and questions affecting the provision of solids and liquids in the end-of-life phase have an ethical dimension. In the context of these two fields, decisions are taken collectively. A nurse's individual (and ethically relevant) leeway in decision-making processes is restricted to the nurse's own style of administering care. The nurse's decision-making often depends to a far greater degree on her ability to adapt her concept of ideal care to fit the practical realities of her work than to any conceptual framework. An adaptive process is necessary for the nurse because she is required to incorporate the four pillars of hospice care - namely, physical, psychological, social and spiritual care - into the practice of her daily work. Ethically relevant decisions are often characterised by nurses adjusting their aspiration levels to the practical conditions with which they are confronted. © The Author(s) 2014.

  12. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  13. Medicare Appeals Council Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions of the Departmental Appeals Board's Medicare Appeals Council involving claims for entitlement to Medicare and individual claims for Medicare coverage and...

  14. Departmental Appeals Board Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions issued by the Chair and Board Members of the Departmental Appeals Board concerning determinations in discretionary, project grant programs, including...

  15. Anthropic decision theory

    CERN Document Server

    Armstrong, Stuart

    2011-01-01

    This paper sets out to solve the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. Given certain simple assumptions, it turns out to be possible to do so without knowing the underlying anthropic probabilities. Most common anthropic problems are underspecified from the decision perspective, and this can explain some of the differing intuitions in the subject: selfless and selfish agents, total and average utilitarians, will all reach different decisions in the same problem. These results are formalised into an anthropic decision theory, that is them used to solve many anthropic problems and paradoxes, such as the Presumptuous Philosopher, Adam and Eve, and Doomsday problems.

  16. Medicare Appeals Council Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions of the Departmental Appeals Board's Medicare Appeals Council involving claims for entitlement to Medicare and individual claims for Medicare coverage and...

  17. Decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L N; Noe, E; Langvad, A M

    2007-01-01

    system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...... by these three groups to make their decisions varies and therefore different ways of using decision support systems need to be provided. Decision support systems need to be developed in close dialogue and collaboration with user groups....

  18. Dual Criteria Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel;

    2014-01-01

    The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...... risk and utility that economists traditionally assume, allowance for rank-dependent decision weights, and consideration of income thresholds. We examine the issues involved in full maximum likelihood estimation of the model using observed choice data. We propose a general method for integrating...... the multiple criteria, using the logic of mixture models, which we believe is attractive from a decision-theoretic and statistical perspective. The model is applied to observed choices from a major natural experiment involving intrinsically dynamic choices over highly skewed outcomes. The evidence points...

  19. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep

    2015-01-01

    from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  20. The design decision trail

    OpenAIRE

    Attenburrow, Derek H

    2012-01-01

    This was a published paper presented at the International Conference on Engineering and Product Design Education on the 6th and 7th of September 2012 at the Artisis University College, Antwerp, Belgium. The Design Decision Trail is a student produced, visual narrative of a design project. It includes the signposting of key design decision points within the edited from the project. It is used to share information with student peers, tutors and potential employers. It is now being used in both ...

  1. Decision table languages and systems

    CERN Document Server

    Metzner, John R

    1977-01-01

    ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im

  2. Adaptive planning : Generating conditions for urban adaptability.Lessons from Dutch organic development strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rauws, Ward; de Roo, Gert

    2016-01-01

    The development of cities includes a wide variety of uncertainties which challenge spatial planners and decision makers. In response, planning approaches which move away from the ambition to achieve predefined outcomes are being explored in the literature. One of them is an adaptive approach to

  3. Geometric Decision Tree

    CERN Document Server

    Manwani, Naresh

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present a new algorithm for learning oblique decision trees. Most of the current decision tree algorithms rely on impurity measures to assess the goodness of hyperplanes at each node while learning a decision tree in a top-down fashion. These impurity measures do not properly capture the geometric structures in the data. Motivated by this, our algorithm uses a strategy to assess the hyperplanes in such a way that the geometric structure in the data is taken into account. At each node of the decision tree, we find the clustering hyperplanes for both the classes and use their angle bisectors as the split rule at that node. We show through empirical studies that this idea leads to small decision trees and better performance. We also present some analysis to show that the angle bisectors of clustering hyperplanes that we use as the split rules at each node, are solutions of an interesting optimization problem and hence argue that this is a principled method of learning a decision tree.

  4. Decisive Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Mayr, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In particular, this holds for probabilistic lossy channel systems (PLCS). Furthermore, all globally coarse Markov chains are decisive. This class includes probabilistic vector addition systems (PVASS) and probabilistic noisy Turing machines (PNTM). We consider both safety and liveness problems for decisive Markov chains, i.e., the probabilities that a given set of states F is eventually reached or reached infinitely often, respectively. 1. We express the qualitative problems in abstract terms for decisive Markov chains, and show...

  5. Selection of invasive wild pig countermeasures using multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondum, Matthew C; Collier, Zachary A; Luke, Christopher S; Goatcher, Buddy L; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Wild pigs are a widespread invasive species that pose significant environmental and social risks. A number of wild pig eradication and control measures exist, but many eradication campaigns are ultimately unsuccessful. Decision making regarding how to design and execute an eradication plan is difficult because of multiple costs and benefits spanning various decision criteria that are associated with different eradication and control countermeasures. Moreover, multiple stakeholders are often involved with differing and sometimes competing objectives, and wild pigs are adaptive adversaries, meaning that the ideal countermeasure may change over time. In this paper, we propose the use of formal decision analytic tools which can structure decision problems into a set of relevant criteria, countermeasures, and stakeholder preferences to facilitate the evaluation of tradeoffs. We operationalize this method in a simple Excel-based decision tool and conclude with a path forward regarding how to successfully implement such tools for effective wild pig control.

  6. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

  7. 76 FR 58807 - An Assessment of Decision-Making Processes: Evaluation of Where Land Protection Planning Can...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-22

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Decision-Making Processes: Evaluation of Where Land Protection Planning Can... Decision-Making Processes: Evaluation of Where Land Protection Planning can Incorporate Climate Change... decision making. As part of a portfolio of adaptation strategies, land protection may become more...

  8. How to Represent Adaptation in e-Learning with IMS Learning Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgos, Daniel; Tattersall, Colin; Koper, Rob

    2007-01-01

    Adaptation in e-learning has been an important research topic for the last few decades in computer-based education. In adaptivity the behaviour of the user triggers some actions in the system that guides the learning process. In adaptability, the user makes changes and takes decisions. Progressing from computer-based training and adaptive…

  9. A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pais, Darren; Hogan, Patrick M; Schlegel, Thomas; Franks, Nigel R; Leonard, Naomi E; Marshall, James A R

    2013-01-01

    We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

  10. A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Pais

    Full Text Available We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

  11. Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  12. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  13. Translating climate data for business decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, N.

    2015-12-01

    Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.

  14. Decision-Scaling: A Decision Framework for DoD Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to produce river and flash flood forecasts for the Nation (McEnery et al., 2005), is...meaningful climate changes. The algorithmic approach allows sampling of a much greater range and variety of climate changes than a typical ensemble of...range of climate changes than that which could be derived from a typical downscaled, multi-model ensemble of projections. More important in some

  15. Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2014-09-13

    The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

  16. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  17. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2016-11-25

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  18. Decisions and desire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

  19. Reconsidering information management roles and capabilities in disaster response decision-making units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment

  20. Integration of individual and social information for decision-making in groups of different sizes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Seongmin A Park; Sidney Goïame; Jean-Claude Dreher

    2017-01-01

    ... (individual information) with those of others (social information). Here, we investigated the neurocomputational mechanisms of how we adapt our judgments to those made by groups of different sizes, in the context of jury decisions for a criminal...

  1. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroğlu Başak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

  2. Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne

    2015-01-01

    and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues...... that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation......Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development...

  3. Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ule

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

  4. Bayes Multiple Decision Functions

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Wensong

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach for this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for the use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow in this paper a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through...

  5. Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Turkish Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacanli, Feride

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…

  6. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Morell, M.; Todorovik, O.; Dimitrov, D.; Selenica, A.; Spirkovski, Z.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the

  7. Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Aidan

    2013-01-01

    The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

  8. Memory Dynamics and Decision Making in Younger and Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…

  9. Certification Considerations for Adaptive Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Cofer, Darren; Musliner, David J.; Mueller, Joseph; Engstrom, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Advanced capabilities planned for the next generation of aircraft, including those that will operate within the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), will necessarily include complex new algorithms and non-traditional software elements. These aircraft will likely incorporate adaptive control algorithms that will provide enhanced safety, autonomy, and robustness during adverse conditions. Unmanned aircraft will operate alongside manned aircraft in the National Airspace (NAS), with intelligent software performing the high-level decision-making functions normally performed by human pilots. Even human-piloted aircraft will necessarily include more autonomy. However, there are serious barriers to the deployment of new capabilities, especially for those based upon software including adaptive control (AC) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Current civil aviation certification processes are based on the idea that the correct behavior of a system must be completely specified and verified prior to operation. This report by Rockwell Collins and SIFT documents our comprehensive study of the state of the art in intelligent and adaptive algorithms for the civil aviation domain, categorizing the approaches used and identifying gaps and challenges associated with certification of each approach.

  10. Complex Feeding Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Miles PhD

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Where swallowing difficulties are chronic or progressive, or a patient is palliative, tube feeding is often not deemed appropriate. Instead, patients continue to eat and drink despite the risks of pneumonia and death. There is currently little evidence to guide clinical practice in this field often termed “risk feeding.” This qualitative study investigated staff, patient, and family member perceptions of risk feeding practices in one New Zealand hospital. Method: Twenty-nine staff members and six patients and/or their family were interviewed. Results: Thematic analysis revealed four global themes: supporting practice, communication, complexity of feeding decisions, and patient and family-centered care. Staff described limited education and organizational policy around risk feeding decisions. Communication was considered a major factor in the success. Conclusion: Feeding decisions are complex in the hospital environment. The themes identified in this study provide a foundation for hospital guideline development and implementation.

  11. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  12. Adaptive Modeling for Security Infrastructure Fault Response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Zhong-jie; YAO Shu-ping; HU Chang-zhen

    2008-01-01

    Based on the analysis of inherent limitations in existing security response decision-making systems, a dynamic adaptive model of fault response is presented. Several security fault levels were founded, which comprise the basic level, equipment level and mechanism level. Fault damage cost is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Meanwhile, the model evaluates the impact of different responses upon fault repair and normal operation. Response operation cost and response negative cost are introduced through quantitative calculation. This model adopts a comprehensive response decision of security fault in three principles-the maximum and minimum principle, timeliness principle, acquiescence principle, which assure optimal response countermeasure is selected for different situations. Experimental results show that the proposed model has good self-adaptation ability, timeliness and cost-sensitiveness.

  13. Decision Support for Radiologists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fatehi

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction & Background: Radiology practice like any other discipline in medicine consists of professional problem solving. A practicing radiologist may face different kinds of problems from pathology finding in im-age, suggestion of appropriate workup in a specific situation, formulating relevant differential diagnosis list for comparison with normal variants and artifacts. When a radiologist has the opportunity to use a computer he/she will also be able to use digital material/technology to solve these problems and make sound decisions. The available methods/materials for digital decision support in radiology may be categorized as follow: A. Image Processing When a radiological image is captured or converted to digital format, techniques like edge enhancement and contrast change may improve the diagnostic value of an image and help in decision making. B. Computer-aided Detection Thoracic imaging and mammography are two fields with promising advances in computer-aided diagnosis (CAD. The ultimate role of CAD is as a second opinion besides radiologists own perception. It is obvious how-ever that when available, CAD may decrease detection errors in radiology practice. C. Decision Support Databases Image Banks: An electronic atlas may be used to compare patients’ image to a predefined classified set of im-ages in order to help radiologist in pattern recognition. This may also be used for anatomic details and variants. Knowledge Bases: A digital differential diagnosis table or algorithmic approach to a specific problem may be helpful in reading room. Digital Textbooks: Classical radiological textbooks may be used in routine practice to remember some definitions, lists or hints, When available, digital version of textbooks are invaluable decision aids. D. Internet resources Online resources can be easily updated, widely used by different users, uniformly applied by different radiolo-gists. Although digital decision support materials and

  14. Spatial Decision Support Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu Ioan Bejinariu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The satellite image processing is an important tool for decision making in domains like agriculture, forestry, hydrology, for normal activity tracking but also in special situations caused by natural disasters. In this paper it is proposed a method for forestry surface evaluation in terms of occupied surface and also as number of trees. The segmentation method is based on watershed transform which offers good performances in case the objects to detect have connected borders. The method is applied for automatic multi-temporal analysis of forestry areas and represents a useful instrument for decision makers.

  15. Learning Probabilistic Decision Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Dalgaard, Jens; Silander, Tomi

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic decision graphs (PDGs) are a representation language for probability distributions based on binary decision diagrams. PDGs can encode (context-specific) independence relations that cannot be captured in a Bayesian network structure, and can sometimes provide computationally more...... efficient representations than Bayesian networks. In this paper we present an algorithm for learning PDGs from data. First experiments show that the algorithm is capable of learning optimal PDG representations in some cases, and that the computational efficiency of PDG models learned from real-life data...

  16. Algorithms for optimal dyadic decision trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hush, Don [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Porter, Reid [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    A new algorithm for constructing optimal dyadic decision trees was recently introduced, analyzed, and shown to be very effective for low dimensional data sets. This paper enhances and extends this algorithm by: introducing an adaptive grid search for the regularization parameter that guarantees optimal solutions for all relevant trees sizes, revising the core tree-building algorithm so that its run time is substantially smaller for most regularization parameter values on the grid, and incorporating new data structures and data pre-processing steps that provide significant run time enhancement in practice.

  17. Phenomenological theory of collective decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zafeiris, Anna; Koman, Zsombor; Mones, Enys

    2017-01-01

    An essential task of groups is to provide efficient solutions for the complex problems they face. Indeed, considerable efforts have been devoted to the question of collective decision-making related to problems involving a single dominant feature. Here we introduce a quantitative formalism...... requires that the specialists also have some insight into the sub-problems beyond their unique field(s). We present empirical results obtained by using a large-scale database of citations being in good agreement with the above theory. The framework we have developed can easily be adapted to a variety...

  18. Behavioral biases in intertemporal decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Soypak, Kalender Can

    2013-01-01

    Modeling intertemporal decisions is essential to understand many financial decisions both at the household and at the company level. Most of the time, these decisions are very complicated and it is very difficult to develop a single model that can describe the intertemporal decision making process in different contexts. Still, this does not prevent many researchers from attempting to understand preferences of individuals in intertemporal decision setting, since people face intertemporal decis...

  19. Brain networks for exploration decisions utilizing distinct modeled information types during contextual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jane X; Voss, Joel L

    2014-06-04

    Exploration permits acquisition of the most relevant information during learning. However, the specific information needed, the influences of this information on decision making, and the relevant neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. We modeled distinct information types available during contextual association learning and used model-based fMRI in conjunction with manipulation of exploratory decision making to identify neural activity associated with information-based decisions. We identified hippocampal-prefrontal contributions to advantageous decisions based on immediately available novel information, distinct from striatal contributions to advantageous decisions based on the sum total available (accumulated) information. Furthermore, network-level interactions among these regions during exploratory decision making were related to learning success. These findings link strategic exploration decisions during learning to quantifiable information and advance understanding of adaptive behavior by identifying the distinct and interactive nature of brain-network contributions to decisions based on distinct information types.

  20. Making progress: UKCIP & adaptation in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established by the UK Government in 1997, who awarded the contract for co-ordinating research into the likely impacts of climate change in the UK to the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. It was originally established to provide decision-makers with information on climate change impacts, and did not have a remit to consider adaptation to climate change.

  1. Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2008-02-01

    Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

  2. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  3. Incorporating Organizational Culture into a Decision Framework for Identifying and Selecting Knowledge Management Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-03-01

    in the original research to develop the decision framework recommended that organizational culture be more emphasized. Therefore, this research...effort evaluated the decision framework proposed by Captain Bower and adapted the framework by including organizational culture . To incorporate... organizational culture into the framework, this research identified cultural factors that can be assessed to determine whether or not a given organizational

  4. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  5. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  6. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten G Volz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

  7. Shared decision making in Spain: current state and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perestelo-Perez, Lilisbeth; Rivero-Santana, Amado; Perez-Ramos, Jeanette; Gonzalez-Lorenzo, Marien; Roman, Javier Gracia-San; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro

    2011-01-01

    In the last two decades there has been a growing recognition in the Spanish National Health System (NHS) of the importance of considering patients' values and preferences in clinical decisions. Patient participation in shared decision making (SDM) is gaining importance as a suitable approach to patient-health professional communication and decision making in Spain. In addition, the NHS is funding the development of patients' decision aids (PtDAs) for shared decision making (SDM) by Health Technology Assessment Agencies. However, the NHS has still not incorporated reforms in law that includes SDM and PtDAs as a key component of health care services and professional curricula, nor is there a standardised implementation of interventions to support decisions in routine care. Most patients are not very familiar with their rights to be kept informed and participate in their own health care decisions. Most professionals are not familiar with or educated about patients' rights to be kept informed and participate in health care decisions either. The future of SDM in Spain is promising. The next course of action should be to maintain the production and adaptation of high-quality PtDAs while at the same time reinforcing effective dissemination strategies among patients and training programmes for professionals focused on SDM.

  8. Support Management Decisions in Small and Medium Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana POPA STRAINU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A system built to support management decisions and not only needs to be accurate and well adapted to the requirements of the decision and the variables involved in it, and this happens because a decision is still a human act in any type of business and institution. We can say that a decision support system has a part in it that cannot be determined by any software: the human decision which is not a determinist act. It depends on a lot of variables but also still involves the decision maker intuition and experience. This is why an important problem emerged to be discussed in this paper: the need to implement and develop an in house solution to help management decisions and not only, using existing tools and this with no additional fees. This can be a good opportunity to discover models and solutions. An identified solution using Microsoft Excel and Access is discussed in this paper and a model applied on a case study will be presented. The results of the case study showed a real support in making decisions and a better transparency in manipulating the data, improving also the time needed to collect, transform and present data. The model can be applied in any type of problem that needs a visual presentation of data as well as in situations that need working with a large amount of data, but especially in small and medium size companies.

  9. Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored...... through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied...

  10. Decisions Based on Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Vincent; Lofstrom, Jocelyn; Jerome, Brian

    This guide makes the case for a decision-making focus in the science curriculum as a response to concern over preparing scientifically literate students. The student activities are organized by guided activities and independent exercises. Themes of the guided activities include xenotransplants, immunizations, household cleaning products, ozone,…

  11. Equational binary decision diagrams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groote, J.F.; Pol, J.C. van de

    2000-01-01

    We incorporate equations in binary decision diagrams (BDD). The resulting objects are called EQ-BDDs. A straightforward notion of ordered EQ-BDDs (EQ-OBDD) is defined, and it is proved that each EQ-BDD is logically equivalent to an EQ-OBDD. Moreover, on EQ-OBDDs satisfiability and tautology checkin

  12. Making Smart Building Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coburn, Janet

    1999-01-01

    Discusses how a positive partnership with the architect can help one who is inexperienced in building design and construction make smart building decisions. Tips address how to prevent change orders, what red flags to look for in a building project, what the administrator should expect from the architect to make the project run smoothly, and what…

  13. Decisions Concerning Directional Dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Eye, Alexander; DeShon, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…

  14. Decision making in neonatologia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  15. Equational binary decision diagrams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Groote (Jan Friso); J.C. van de Pol (Jaco)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe incorporate equations in binary decision diagrams (BDD). The resulting objects are called EQ-BDDs. A straightforward notion of ordered EQ-BDDs (EQ-OBDD) is defined, and it is proved that each EQ-BDD is logically equivalent to an EQ-OBDD. Moreover, on EQ-OBDDs satisfiability and

  16. Pricing Decisions: A Game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Simon

    1989-01-01

    Describes a game that illustrates the effects of pricing on profit. Students compete against each other in an imaginary industry and become familiar with decision-making processes. Depicts the gameboard, how to make it, and how to use it. (GG)

  17. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    decision maker’s beliefs must be known to him- self (De Finetti 1974). However, objective probabilities (i.e., frequencies) - those known from observations...CA: Duxbury Press, 664. De Finetti , B. 1974. Theory of probability. New York: Wiley. Dempster, A.P. 1968. A generalization of Bayesian inference

  18. Compressing Binary Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Esben Rune; Satti, Srinivasa Rao; Tiedemann, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...

  19. Compressing Binary Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rune Hansen, Esben; Srinivasa Rao, S.; Tiedemann, Peter

    The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...

  20. The decision evaluation scales.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stalmeier, P.F.M.; Roosmalen, M.S van; Verhoef, L.C.G.; Hoekstra-Weebers, J.E.; Oosterwijk-Wakka, J.C.; Moog, U.; Hoogerbrugge-van der Linden, N.; Daal, W.A.J. van

    2005-01-01

    There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,

  1. The decision evaluation scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stalmeier, PFM; Roosmalen, MS; Verhoef, LCG; Hoekstra-Weebers, JEHM; Oosterwijk, JC; Moog, U; Hoogerbrugge, N; van Daal, WAJ

    2005-01-01

    There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,

  2. Decision Making In Orienteering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Katia

    1997-01-01

    Eight psychometric instruments were administered to 10 elite male Portuguese orienteers. The cognitive process involved in decision making did not differ between the best orienteers and the others. This group of athletes had a high capacity for work realization and a strong need to be in control of interpersonal situations. (Author/SV)

  3. Making Good Tenure Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Samuel L.; Galvin, Kathleen M.; Houston, Marsha; Friedrich, Gustav W.; Pearson, Judy C.; Seiler, William J.; Trent, Judith S.

    2001-01-01

    Presents criteria and procedures that can help to substantially increase the probability of a good tenure decision. Notes that the tenure procedures must be designed and followed in a way that ensures, to the degree possible, validity, fairness, and equity. Stresses the importance of maintaining good records and mentoring. (SG)

  4. Arguing to motivate decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Weide, T.L.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833622

    2011-01-01

    Decision makers often have to make difficult trade-offs in situations where multiple aspects matter that are different by nature. For example, in a crisis scenario with a big fire in a factory, trade-offs may have to be made between the safety of the victims and personnel, and the effects on the env

  5. Compressing Binary Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Esben Rune; Satti, Srinivasa Rao; Tiedemann, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...

  6. Facilitating Decisions under Scarcity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, Stefan D.

    1993-01-01

    This article proposes a conceptual decision-making framework for college and university offices of institutional research during times when budgetary retrenchment and reallocation of resources is necessary. Key issues the office should consider include understanding the institution's purpose, strategy selection, evaluation activities, student…

  7. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  8. Equational binary decision diagrams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Groote (Jan Friso); J.C. van de Pol (Jaco)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe incorporate equations in binary decision diagrams (BDD). The resulting objects are called EQ-BDDs. A straightforward notion of ordered EQ-BDDs (EQ-OBDD) is defined, and it is proved that each EQ-BDD is logically equivalent to an EQ-OBDD. Moreover, on EQ-OBDDs satisfiability and tauto

  9. Architectural design decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Antonius Gradus Johannes

    2008-01-01

    A software architecture can be considered as the collection of key decisions concerning the design of the software of a system. Knowledge about this design, i.e. architectural knowledge, is key for understanding a software architecture and thus the software itself. Architectural knowledge is mostly

  10. Making Healthy Sexual Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... including your partner) ? Is your decision to have sex based on the right reasons? (It shouldn’t be based on peer ... re ready! Tags: birth control , condoms , contraception , healthy sex , peer ... Contraception (EC) Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity: General Information How do I ...

  11. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  12. Using Uncertain Climate and Development Information in Health Adaptation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Hess, Jeremy J; Isaksen, Tania Busch

    2016-03-01

    To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

  13. Shared clinical decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990

  14. Climate adaptation futures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palutikof, J. P

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is the poor cousin of the climate change challenge - the glamour of international debate is around global mitigation agreements, while the bottom-up activities of adaptation, carried out...

  15. Decision support tools : midterm review report Knowledge for Climate Theme 8

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.

    2012-01-01

    The KfC program Decision Support Tools aims at improving tools for design and evaluation of adaptation strategies with a special focus on spatial planning and cross cutting issues. The program focuses on three core elements 1. tools for formulation of the adaptation task, based on climate scenarios

  16. The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

    2015-05-01

    Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization.

  17. Principles of adaptive optics

    CERN Document Server

    Tyson, Robert

    2010-01-01

    History and BackgroundIntroductionHistoryPhysical OpticsTerms in Adaptive OpticsSources of AberrationsAtmospheric TurbulenceThermal BloomingNonatmospheric SourcesAdaptive Optics CompensationPhase ConjugationLimitations of Phase ConjugationArtificial Guide StarsLasers for Guide StarsCombining the LimitationsLinear AnalysisPartial Phase ConjugationAdaptive Optics SystemsAdaptive Optics Imaging SystemsBeam Propagation Syst

  18. Decision story strategy: a practical approach for teaching decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D L; Hamrick, M H; Anspaugh, D J

    1981-12-01

    Teachers are usually very enthusiastic in their evaluations of decision stories. Decision Story Strategies offer a change of pace, promote student involvement and stimulate creative thinking, problem solving and everpresent creative teaching-learning opportunities. The real-life problems presented within the structure of a decision story provide meaningful learning opportunities for students. Students begin to think in a broader perspective when considering other points of view and information sources. The Decision Story Strategy used with the Decision-Making Model provides a powerful tool for health educators to develop skills for making and evaluating decisions in an interesting and meaningful context. It may not be a panacea for all health educators, but is an effective strategy for the teacher concerned with developing independent decision makers. Most importantly, students are provided opportunities to solve their present problems as well as develop decision-making skills for the future.

  19. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  20. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  1. Audience affects decision-making in a marmoset communication network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toarmino, Camille R; Wong, Lauren; Miller, Cory T

    2017-01-01

    An audience can have a profound effect on the dynamics of communicative interactions. As a result, non-human primates often adjust their social decision-making strategies depending on the audience composition at a given time. Here we sought to test how the unique vocal behaviour of multiple audience members affected decisions to communicate. To address this issue, we developed a novel experimental paradigm in which common marmosets directly interacted with multiple 'virtual monkeys' (VMs), each of whom represented an individual marmoset with distinct vocal behaviour. This active social signalling paradigm provided subjects an opportunity to interact with and learn about the behaviour of each VM in the network and apply this knowledge in subsequent communicative decisions. We found that subjects' propensity to interact with particular VMs was determined by the behaviour of each VM in the audience and suggests that marmoset social decision-making strategies are highly adaptive to nuances of the immediate communication network.

  2. Stochastic decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacksonen, Thomas A.

    1994-01-01

    Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given

  3. Statistical Decision Theory Applied to Radiation Therapy Treatment Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Schultheiss, T. E.; El-Mahdi, Anas M.

    1982-01-01

    Statistical decision theory has been applied to the treatment planning decision of radiation therapy. The decision involves the choice of parameters which determine the radiation dose distribution. To choose among dose distributions requires a decision rule which reflects the uncertainty of possible outcomes for any specific dose distribution and the various risks associated with each outcome. A relative gravity or morbidity is assigned to each possible complication of treatment. In this stud...

  4. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... identification to the possible decision making. The process makes use of a preliminary problem structuring phase, and an intervention phase featuring the concept of a decision conference where decision-makers and multiple stakeholders have the possibility of interacting with the decision support model...

  5. Crisis Decision Theory: Decisions in the Face of Negative Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Kate

    2008-01-01

    How do people respond to negative life events? Crisis decision theory combines the strengths of coping theories with research on decision making to predict the responses people choose under negative circumstances. The theory integrates literatures on coping, health behavior, and decision making, among others, into 3 stages that describe the…

  6. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  7. Crisis Decision Theory: Decisions in the Face of Negative Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Kate

    2008-01-01

    How do people respond to negative life events? Crisis decision theory combines the strengths of coping theories with research on decision making to predict the responses people choose under negative circumstances. The theory integrates literatures on coping, health behavior, and decision making, among others, into 3 stages that describe the…

  8. The Cesarean Decision Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puia, Denise M.

    2013-01-01

    A descriptive study design was used to describe the decision of women having a cesarean surgery. The Cesarean Birth Decision Survey was used to collect data from 101 postpartum women who underwent a cesarean. Most of the surgeries were to primipara women who reported doctor recommendation and increased safety for the baby as the main reasons for the cesarean. Those women who had repeat cesarean surgery all cited their previous cesarean as the main reason for the current surgery. Women’s knowledge of cesarean surgery needs to be assessed early in pregnancy so that appropriate education may be provided. Accurate and ongoing information may decrease the number of women choosing a cesarean surgery. PMID:24868134

  9. Management decisions for cogeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, R. R.; Tabors, R. D.

    1982-07-01

    Two interdependent studies which explore the underlying factors in the decision by private, private non-profit, and public sector facility owners to invest in cogeneration technology are summarized. The employ factor analysis techniques to explain the decision to invest and discriminant analysis to group the survey respondents into non-cogenerators and potential cogenerators. Data for both studies come from a survey of commercial, industrial, and institutional electric energy consumers who used more than 750 kW demand in any one month of 1981 for a selected electric utility in the Boston area. There were 129 usable responses to the survey of 32.2% of the population. The studies confirm that a number of factors other than purely economic considerations may prevent use of cogeneration technology at the present time. These factors include: uncertainty caused by regulatory action; desire for energy self sufficiency by the organization; financial flexibility; experience with electricity cogeneration or self generation; and capital budget planning methods.

  10. Decision Strategy Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardeman, F

    2001-04-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is: (1) to study the decision-making process in a nuclear context with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness; (2) to disseminate knowledge on nuclear emergency preparedness including courses in the field of off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents; (3) to co-ordinate efforts within SCK-CEN in the field of medical applications of radiation; (4) to support projects and reflexion groups related to interdisciplinary research on the no-technical aspects of radiation protection or nuclear apllications; (5) to give advice and support to authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available. Main focus of the programme is on the surveillance of the territory and emergency preparedness. Principal achievements in 2000 are described.

  11. A Reconceptualization of the Adaptability Rating for Military Aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    for a coveted “pilot slot.” Most pass through a series of filters , either at a military academy, a Reserve Officers Training Corps candidacy, or with...distinct but similar definitions for untrained and trained aviators, the so-called aeronautically adaptable versus adapted. Untrained assets have “the...untrained assets by the FS. In this selection the FS, through interview, observation, and review of historical personal data, makes a decision based

  12. Automatic food decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone

    Consumers' food decisions are to a large extent shaped by automatic processes, which are either internally directed through learned habits and routines or externally influenced by context factors and visual information triggers. Innovative research methods such as eye tracking, choice experiments...... and food diaries allow us to better understand the impact of unconscious processes on consumers' food choices. Simone Mueller Loose will provide an overview of recent research insights into the effects of habit and context on consumers' food choices....

  13. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  14. The Decision Disconnect

    OpenAIRE

    Cecilia Marie Ridgley

    2009-01-01

    If the practice of ethics amongst the members of an enterprise and their ideal identity conflict with those of the governing membership in structure, assumptions, dynamic or learning, then we have a decision disconnect that will constrain the success of that enterprise: a governance issue. Understanding the pervasive role of ethics in leading ICT in the enterprise is vital for effective practice of enterprise ICT governance. Hitherto there has been comparatively little critical attention paid...

  15. Automatic food decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone

    Consumers' food decisions are to a large extent shaped by automatic processes, which are either internally directed through learned habits and routines or externally influenced by context factors and visual information triggers. Innovative research methods such as eye tracking, choice experiments...... and food diaries allow us to better understand the impact of unconscious processes on consumers' food choices. Simone Mueller Loose will provide an overview of recent research insights into the effects of habit and context on consumers' food choices....

  16. Decision Support Systems: Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    in DSS was provided by Professor Peter C. W. Keen, Michael S. Scott Morton and their students; as well as Eric D. Carlson and his colleagues. Figure... eric data. DSS designers are equally concerned with freeing the decision .,aker from expending a great amount of effort to input commands and...Research. Gothenberg, Sweden, BAS, Forlag, 1972. Erikson , E. Young Man Luther. New York: Norton, 1958. Evan, William, and Guy Black , "Innvoation in

  17. Optimizing Early Retirement Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    the military. The U.S. Army’s early retirement program is a temporary one designed to allow some soldiers to leave the service prior to 20 years of...whether it makes financial sense for an officer to select early retirement . A spreadsheet formulation is developed and used to indicate if and when...an officer should select early retirement . The program investigates the decision that various civilian salary levels and various assumed discount rates.

  18. Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval: Semantics, Context, and Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissi...... submissions. The papers cover topics of state of the art contributions, features and classification, location context, language and semantics, music retrieval, and adaption and HCI....

  19. Discrimination in lexical decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Laurie Beth; Ramscar, Michael; Hendrix, Peter; Baayen, R. Harald

    2017-01-01

    In this study we present a novel set of discrimination-based indicators of language processing derived from Naive Discriminative Learning (ndl) theory. We compare the effectiveness of these new measures with classical lexical-distributional measures—in particular, frequency counts and form similarity measures—to predict lexical decision latencies when a complete morphological segmentation of masked primes is or is not possible. Data derive from a re-analysis of a large subset of decision latencies from the English Lexicon Project, as well as from the results of two new masked priming studies. Results demonstrate the superiority of discrimination-based predictors over lexical-distributional predictors alone, across both the simple and primed lexical decision tasks. Comparable priming after masked corner and cornea type primes, across two experiments, fails to support early obligatory segmentation into morphemes as predicted by the morpho-orthographic account of reading. Results fit well with ndl theory, which, in conformity with Word and Paradigm theory, rejects the morpheme as a relevant unit of analysis. Furthermore, results indicate that readers with greater spelling proficiency and larger vocabularies make better use of orthographic priors and handle lexical competition more efficiently. PMID:28235015

  20. The Participation Decision Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Y. Ficaj

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The 2011 participation decision study involved exploration into the impact of the external education environment on the decision for private school participation in Federal funding, one deliberately declining player in the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001(NCLB choice and competition equation. In the qualitative collective case, three religiously triangulated Michigan private school decision-makers submitted to semi-structured interviews. Analysis of the external environmental factors was through the lens of Gould and Eldredge’s (1977 environmentally oriented theory, punctuated equilibria philosophy of change. Analysis involved layering, direct interpretation, categorical aggregation, and cross-comparison of two external environmental categories identified at literature review (NCLB-content and privatization-dynamic with numerous major and sub-groupings and space for newly emergent material. The category privatization-dynamics emerged as significant influence, as did the major theme trust and the sub-themes motivational intent, competency, consistency, grapevine, creativity or inspiration, restrictions on curriculum, lack of awareness of opportunities available, and fear of failure. The study included five specific recommendations for leaders of change to explain, predict, and improve organizational performance toward greater synchronization in operation of the NCLB choice and competition mechanisms.

  1. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detail

  2. Soft Decision Analyzer and Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Glen F. (Inventor); Lansdowne, Chatwin (Inventor); Zucha, Joan P. (Inventor); Schlesinger, Adam M. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A soft decision analyzer system is operable to interconnect soft decision communication equipment and analyze the operation thereof to detect symbol wise alignment between a test data stream and a reference data stream in a variety of operating conditions.

  3. Understanding marketing decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Wierenga, Berend

    2012-01-01

    textabstractWhile a whole range of factors influences the outcomes of a marketing policy, it is managerial decision-making that can really make a difference. A clearer understanding of how marketers make decisions should therefore improve their quality.

  4. Resilience through adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Voorn, George A. K.; Ligtenberg, Arend; Molenaar, Jaap

    2017-01-01

    Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover’s distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system. PMID:28196372

  5. [Individual adaptation strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldasheva, A A

    2014-01-01

    The article looks at the relation between adaptation strategy and individual style of activity based on the doctrine of human adaptation of V.I. Medvedev that enables opening up characteristics of professional activity in diverse environments. It illustrates a role and the relation between physiological and psychological mechanisms, which can vary, depending on individual adaptation strategies of a person. Theoretical and practical studies based on activity paradigm allow us to look at the basic principles of human interaction with the environment from a new perspective. Based on the law on the conceptual model of adaptation proposed by V.I. Medvedev, the article illustrates that humans are active figures in adaptation situations, modeling their own adaption strategies, using different individual styles manifested in the programs of adaptive behaviour.

  6. Minimum description length criterion based decision tree dynamic pruning method in speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Xianghua; HE lin

    2006-01-01

    In phonetic decision tree based state tying, decision trees with varying leaf nodes denote models with different complexity. By studying the influence of model complexity on system performance and speaker adaptation, a decision tree dynamic pruning method based on Minimum Description Length (MDL) criterion is presented. In the method, a well-trained,large-sized phonetic decision tree is selected as an initial model set, and model complexity is computed by adding a penalty parameter which alters according to the amount of adaptation data. Largely attributed to the reasonable selection of initial models and the integration of stochastic and aptotic of MDL criterion, the proposed method gains high performance by combining with speaker adaptation.

  7. New Explorations for Decision Trees

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Traditionally, the decision tree method is defined and used for finding the optimal solution of a Bayesian decision problem. And it is difficult to use the decision tree method to find the sub-optimal solution, not to mention to rank alternatives. This paper discusses how to use the decision tree method for the alternative selecting and ranking.A practical case study is given to illustrate the applicability.

  8. Bayes multiple decision functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wensong; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. Such problems arise in many practical areas such as the biological and medical sciences, where the available dataset is from microarrays or other high-throughput technology and with the goal being to decide which among of many genes are relevant with respect to some phenotype of interest; in the engineering and reliability sciences; in astronomy; in education; and in business. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the quality of decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through a class of frailty-induced Archimedean copulas. In particular, non-Gaussian dependent data structure, which is typical with failure-time data, can be entertained. The numerical implementation of the determination of the Bayes optimal action is facilitated through sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The theory developed could also be extended to the problem of multiple hypotheses testing, multiple classification and prediction, and high-dimensional variable selection. The proposed procedure is illustrated for the simple versus simple hypotheses setting and for the composite hypotheses setting

  9. Neural and neurochemical basis of reinforcement-guided decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khani, Abbas; Rainer, Gregor

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is an adaptive behavior that takes into account several internal and external input variables and leads to the choice of a course of action over other available and often competing alternatives. While it has been studied in diverse fields ranging from mathematics, economics, ecology, and ethology to psychology and neuroscience, recent cross talk among perspectives from different fields has yielded novel descriptions of decision processes. Reinforcement-guided decision making models are based on economic and reinforcement learning theories, and their focus is on the maximization of acquired benefit over a defined period of time. Studies based on reinforcement-guided decision making have implicated a large network of neural circuits across the brain. This network includes a wide range of cortical (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) and subcortical (e.g., nucleus accumbens and subthalamic nucleus) brain areas and uses several neurotransmitter systems (e.g., dopaminergic and serotonergic systems) to communicate and process decision-related information. This review discusses distinct as well as overlapping contributions of these networks and neurotransmitter systems to the processing of decision making. We end the review by touching on neural circuitry and neuromodulatory regulation of exploratory decision making.

  10. On flexible CAD of adaptive control and identification algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Anders; Ravn, Ole

    1988-01-01

    SLLAB is a MATLAB-family software package for solving control and identification problems. This paper concerns the planning of a general-purpose subroutine structure for solving identification and adaptive control problems. A general-purpose identification algorithm is suggested, which allows...... a total redesign of the system within each sample. The necessary design parameters are evaluated and a decision vector is defined, from which the identification algorithm can be generated by the program. Using the decision vector, a decision-node tree structure is built up, where the nodes define...

  11. Linguistic decision making for robot route learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hongmei; McGinnity, Thomas Martin; Coleman, Sonya; Gardiner, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Machine learning enables the creation of a nonlinear mapping that describes robot-environment interaction, whereas computing linguistics make the interaction transparent. In this paper, we develop a novel application of a linguistic decision tree for a robot route learning problem by dynamically deciding the robot's behavior, which is decomposed into atomic actions in the context of a specified task. We examine the real-time performance of training and control of a linguistic decision tree, and explore the possibility of training a machine learning model in an adaptive system without dual CPUs for parallelization of training and control. A quantified evaluation approach is proposed, and a score is defined for the evaluation of a model's robustness regarding the quality of training data. Compared with the nonlinear system identification nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with eXogeneous inputs model structure with offline parameter estimation, the linguistic decision tree model with online linguistic ID3 learning achieves much better performance, robustness, and reliability.

  12. Electronic Communication and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, M. S.; Sarbaugh-Thompson, M.

    1996-01-01

    Electronic communication can either facilitate or sabotage decision-making contexts. This article formulates recommendations about when and how to use electronic communication to enhance decision making and describes various decision contexts. Solutions to communication problems such as groupthink, social deadlock, bureaucratic isolation from…

  13. Induction of Ordinal Decision Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); V. Popova (Viara)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on the problem of monotone decision trees from the point of view of the multicriteria decision aid methodology (MCDA). By taking into account the preferences of the decision maker, an attempt is made to bring closer similar research within machine learning and MCDA.

  14. Decisiveness indices are semiindices: addendum

    OpenAIRE

    Freixas Bosch, Josep; Pons Vallès, Montserrat

    2017-01-01

    In the paper Decisiveness indices are semiindices (Freixas and Pons, 2016) it was shown that any decisiveness index obtained from an anonymous probability distribution is a semiindex, and that the converse is not true. In this note we characterize the semiindices which are indices of decisiveness. Peer Reviewed

  15. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

  16. How clinical decisions are made.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bate, Louise; Hutchinson, Andrew; Underhill, Jonathan; Maskrey, Neal

    2012-10-01

    There is much variation in the implementation of the best available evidence into clinical practice. These gaps between evidence and practice are often a result of multiple individual decisions. When making a decision, there is so much potentially relevant information available, it is impossible to know or process it all (so called 'bounded rationality'). Usually, a limited amount of information is selected to reach a sufficiently satisfactory decision, a process known as satisficing. There are two key processes used in decision making: System 1 and System 2. System 1 involves fast, intuitive decisions; System 2 is a deliberate analytical approach, used to locate information which is not instantly recalled. Human beings unconsciously use System 1 processing whenever possible because it is quicker and requires less effort than System 2. In clinical practice, gaps between evidence and practice can occur when a clinician develops a pattern of knowledge, which is then relied on for decisions using System 1 processing, without the activation of a System 2 check against the best available evidence from high quality research. The processing of information and decision making may be influenced by a number of cognitive biases, of which the decision maker may be unaware. Interventions to encourage appropriate use of System 1 and System 2 processing have been shown to improve clinical decision making. Increased understanding of decision making processes and common sources of error should help clinical decision makers to minimize avoidable mistakes and increase the proportion of decisions that are better.

  17. Adaptive aspirations and performance heterogeneity : Attention allocation among multiple reference points

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blettner, D.P.; He, Z.; Hu, S.; Bettis, R.

    2015-01-01

    Organizations learn and adapt their aspiration levels based on reference points (prior aspiration, prior performance, and prior performance of reference groups). The relative attention that organizations allocate to these reference points impacts organizational search and strategic decisions. Howeve

  18. Tedmical Note on Local Adaptations to Soil Erosion and Low Soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The farmers' decision to adapt a particular tech- nique was ... ing system, availability of the raw material, and the labour requirement. Key words: Soil ... methods of soil and water conservation (SWC) ..... This study was supported by the Interna-.

  19. A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

    2002-08-01

    The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

  20. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  1. Novelty, Adaptive Capacity, and Resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Holling

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a conceptual framework that explores some of the forces creating innovation and novelty in complex systems. Understanding the sources of variability and novelty may help us better understand complex systems. Understanding complex phenomena such as invasions, migration, and nomadism may provide insight into the structure of ecosystems and other complex systems, and aid our attempts to cope with and mitigate these phenomena, in the case of invasions, and better understand and or predict them. Our model is broadly applicable to ecological theory, including community ecology, resilience, restoration, and policy. Characterizing the link between landscape change and the composition of species communities may help policymakers in their decision-making processes. Understanding how variability is related to system structure, and how that generates novelty, may help us understand how resilience is generated. We suggest that there are three primary opportunities for the generation of novelty into complex systems. These sources of novelty are inherent in the cross-scale structure of complex systems, and are critical for creating adaptive capacity. Novelty originates from the inherent variability present in cross scale structures, within scale reorganization associated with adaptive cycles, and whole-scale transformations resulting from regime shifts. Although speculative, our ideas are grounded in research and observation, and they may provide insight into the evolution of complex systems.

  2. NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Horton, R.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup is comprised of NASA Earth scientists, applications researchers and institutional stewards, tasked with assisting the development of Climate Change Adaptation strategies for NASA as a whole as well as at individual Centers. In an Executive Order dated October 5, 2009, titled "Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance" the President mandates that all agencies "evaluate agency climate-change risks and vulnerabilities to manage the effects of climate change on the agency's operations and mission in both the short and long-term." To further these goals, the CASI Workgroup contributes to the scientific advancement of relevant climate and impacts studies at the Center-scale, contributes to a body of knowledge on how to apply Earth science in decision-making and ensures that NASA institutional stewards' decision-making process benefits from the best available scientific information. Climate variability and climate change pose a range of hazards to the NASA Centers located throughout the country. These changing climate hazards may challenge key NASA missions by threatening operations and damaging critical infrastructure. Studying and understanding these hazards are essential to ensuring effective risk management for the centers. By developing climate change adaptation strategies tailored to the specific impacts that are anticipated, NASA decision makers will be able to minimize negative effects of climate and climate change, while leveraging positive outcomes. The NASA CASI Workgroup will perform a variety of tasks including development of climate projections for each Center, inventory of climate and climate impact data and project activities within NASA, assessment of adaption approaches and Center-level planning strategies, recommendations for future research initiatives, and leading of thematic and region-specific workshops.

  3. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  4. Things as companions : a Peircean approach to urban place / Susann Vihma

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vihma, Susann

    2003-01-01

    Inimtegevuse, keskkonna ja asjade analüüs Peirceþilikus võtmes. Püütakse eritleda tootekekkonna ja disainiprotsessiga seotud inimkogemust. Artefakti käsitletakse kui vastastikuses koostöös toimivat asja, mitte pelgalt passiivset objekti

  5. How Peircean semiotic philosophy connects Western science with Eastern emptiness ontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brier, Søren

    2017-08-25

    In recent articles in this journal I have discussed why a traditional physicalist and mechanist, as well as an info-computationalist, view of science cannot fulfil the goal of building a transdisciplinary science across Snow's two cultures. There seems to be no path proceeding from mechanistic physicalism to views that encompass phenomenological theories of experiential consciousness and meaning-based cognition and communication. I have suggested, as an alternative, the Cybersemiotic framework's integration of Peirce's semiotics and Luhmann's autopoietic system theory. The present article considers in greater depth the ontological developments necessary to make this possible. It shows how Peirce avoids materialism and German idealism through his building on a concept of emptiness similar to modern quantum field theory, positing an indeterminist objective chance feeding into an evolutionary philosophy of knowing based on pure mathematics and phenomenology that is itself combined with empirically executed fallibilism. Furthermore, he created a new metaphysics in the form of a philosophical synechist triadic process philosophy. This was integrated into the transcendentalist view of process view of science and spirituality developed from Western Unitarianism by Emerson (agapism), and featuring a metaphysics of emptiness and spontaneity (tychism) that are also essential for the Eastern philosophies of Buddhism and Vedanta. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Things as companions : a Peircean approach to urban place / Susann Vihma

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vihma, Susann

    2003-01-01

    Inimtegevuse, keskkonna ja asjade analüüs Peirceþilikus võtmes. Püütakse eritleda tootekekkonna ja disainiprotsessiga seotud inimkogemust. Artefakti käsitletakse kui vastastikuses koostöös toimivat asja, mitte pelgalt passiivset objekti

  7. Cal-Adapt: California's Climate Data Resource and Interactive Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, N.; Mukhtyar, S.; Wilhelm, S.; Galey, B.; Lehmer, E.

    2016-12-01

    Cal-Adapt is a web-based application that provides an interactive toolkit and information clearinghouse to help agencies, communities, local planners, resource managers, and the public understand climate change risks and impacts at the local level. The website offers interactive, visually compelling, and useful data visualization tools that show how climate change might affect California using downscaled continental climate data. Cal-Adapt is supporting California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment through providing access to the wealth of modeled and observed data and adaption-related information produced by California's scientific community. The site has been developed by UC Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF) in collaboration with the California Energy Commission's (CEC) Research Program. The Cal-Adapt website allows decision makers, scientists and residents of California to turn research results and climate projections into effective adaptation decisions and policies. Since its release to the public in June 2011, Cal-Adapt has been visited by more than 94,000 unique visitors from over 180 countries, all 50 U.S. states, and 689 California localities. We will present several key visualizations that have been employed by Cal-Adapt's users to support their efforts to understand local impacts of climate change, indicate the breadth of data available, and delineate specific use cases. Recently, CEC and GIF have been developing and releasing Cal-Adapt 2.0, which includes updates and enhancements that are increasing its ease of use, information value, visualization tools, and data accessibility. We showcase how Cal-Adapt is evolving in response to feedback from a variety of sources to present finer-resolution downscaled data, and offer an open API that allows other organization to access Cal-Adapt climate data and build domain specific visualization and planning tools. Through a combination of locally relevant information, visualization tools, and access to

  8. Decision making in surgical oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N

    2011-09-01

    Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients.

  9. Decision Making via AHP

    CERN Document Server

    Andrecut, M

    2014-01-01

    The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a procedure for establishing priorities in multi-criteria decision making problems. Here we discuss the Logarithmic Least Squares (LLS) method for the AHP and group-AHP, which provides an exact and unique solution for the priority vector. Also, we show that for the group-AHP, the LLS method is equivalent with the minimization of the weighted sum of generalized Kullback-Leibler divergences, between the group-priority vector and the priority vector of each expert.

  10. Decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L N; Noe, E; Langvad, A M;

    2007-01-01

    system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...

  11. Functional imaging of decision conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pochon, Jean-Baptiste; Riis, Jason; Sanfey, Alan G; Nystrom, Leigh E; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2008-03-26

    Decision conflict occurs when people feel uncertain as to which option to choose from a set of similarly attractive (or unattractive) options, with many studies demonstrating that this conflict can lead to suboptimal decision making. In this article, we investigate the neurobiological underpinnings of decision conflict, in particular, the involvement of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Previous studies have implicated the ACC in conflict monitoring during perceptual tasks, but there is considerable controversy as to whether the ACC actually indexes conflict related to choice, or merely conflict related to selection of competing motor responses. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging study, we dissociate the decision and response phases of a decision task, and show that the ACC does indeed index conflict at the decision stage. Furthermore, we show that it does so for a complex decision task, one that requires the integration of beliefs and preferences and not just perceptual judgments.

  12. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  13. A multicriteria decision making model for assessment and selection of an ERP in a logistics context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Teresa; Ferreira, Fernanda A.

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this work is to apply a methodology of decision support based on a multicriteria decision analyses (MCDA) model that allows the assessment and selection of an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in a Portuguese logistics company by Group Decision Maker (GDM). A Decision Support system (DSS) that implements a MCDA - Multicriteria Methodology for the Assessment and Selection of Information Systems / Information Technologies (MMASSI / IT) is used based on its features and facility to change and adapt the model to a given scope. Using this DSS it was obtained the information system that best suited to the decisional context, being this result evaluated through a sensitivity and robustness analysis.

  14. Technology transfer for adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagini, Bonizella; Kuhl, Laura; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Ortiz, Claudia

    2014-09-01

    Technology alone will not be able to solve adaptation challenges, but it is likely to play an important role. As a result of the role of technology in adaptation and the importance of international collaboration for climate change, technology transfer for adaptation is a critical but understudied issue. Through an analysis of Global Environment Facility-managed adaptation projects, we find there is significantly more technology transfer occurring in adaptation projects than might be expected given the pessimistic rhetoric surrounding technology transfer for adaptation. Most projects focused on demonstration and early deployment/niche formation for existing technologies rather than earlier stages of innovation, which is understandable considering the pilot nature of the projects. Key challenges for the transfer process, including technology selection and appropriateness under climate change, markets and access to technology, and diffusion strategies are discussed in more detail.

  15. Origins of adaptive immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity.

  16. Adaptive Management on Danube Delta’s Biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildiko Ioan

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity is a heritage of life that could hold the information needed for the wellbeing of human kind. The challenge of biodiversity preservation was addressed by various management solutions, the newest being the adaptive management. The paper aims to give insights for the application of adaptive management and to reveal its potential for increasing the effectiveness of ecosystem management in the Danube Delta. Carefully designed adaptive management action plans could allow important improvements in the information base that support decisions related to reed valuation.

  17. DECISIONS, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES RELATED TO DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boghean Florin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalised uncertainty, a phenomenon that today’s managers are facing as part of their professional experience, makes it impossible to anticipate the way the business environment will evolve or what will be the consequences of the decisions they plan to implement. Any decision making process within the company entails the simultaneous presence of a number of economic, technical, juridical, human and managerial variables. The development and the approval of a decision is the result of decision making activities developed by the decision maker and sometimes by a decision support team or/and a decision support system (DSS. These aspects related to specific applications of decision support systems in risk management will be approached in this research paper. Decisions in general and management decisions in particular are associated with numerous risks, due to their complexity and increasing contextual orientation. In each business entity, there are concerns with the implementation of risk management in order to improve the likelihood of meeting objectives, the trust of the parties involved, increase the operational safety and security as well as the protection of the environment, minimise losses, improve organisational resilience in order to diminish the negative impact on the organisation and provide a solid foundation for decision making. Since any business entity is considered to be a wealth generator, the analysis of their performance should not be restricted to financial efficiency alone, but will also encompass their economic efficiency as well. The type of research developed in this paper entails different dimensions: conceptual, methodological, as well as empirical testing. Subsequently, the conducted research entails a methodological side, since the conducted activities have resulted in the presentation of a simulation model that is useful in decision making processes on the capital market. The research conducted in the present paper

  18. Age Effects in Adaptive Criterion Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Brittany S; Gutchess, Angela H

    2016-11-01

    Although prior work has examined age-related changes to criterion placement and flexibility, no study tested these constructs through a paradigm that employs adaptive feedback to encourage specific criterion changes. The goal of this study was to assess age differences in how young and older adults adapt and shift criteria in recognition memory decisions based on trial-by-trial feedback. Young and older adults completed an adaptive criterion learning paradigm. Over 3 study/test cycles, a biased feedback technique at test encouraged more liberal or strict responding by false-positive feedback toward false alarms or misses. Older adults were more conservative than young, even when feedback first encouraged a liberal response bias, and older adults adaptively placed criteria in response to biased feedback, much like young adults. After first being encouraged to respond conservatively, older adults shifted criteria less than young when feedback encouraged more lenient responding. These findings evidence labile adaptive criteria placement and criteria shifting with age. However, age-related tendencies toward conservative response biases may limit the extent to which criteria can be shifted in a lenient direction. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Climate services within a regional climate adaptation project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Heidenreich, Majana; Franke, Johannes; Riedel, Kathrin; Matschullat, Jörg; Bernhofer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the demand for adapting to climate variability and change became more and more obvious. Thus a multitude of projects dealing with climate adaptation strategies and concrete measures was launched. Commonly, developing adaptation options is based on downscaled climate model outputs. These outputs have to be provided within the projects, but just providing the data is far from being sufficient. Obstacles connected with using climate projections for climate adaptation include uncertainties and bandwidths of climate projections and the inability of models to describe parameters such as extreme weather events, which are particularly relevant for many climate adaptation decisions. Climate scientists know that model outputs are no climate data and cannot be treated as observational data were treated in the past. Still, many practitioners demand precise values for future climate to replace past CLINO-values and to run their applications. Thus, climate adaptation involves adapting the instruments and processes used in deriving climate-related decisions. Communicating the challenges arising from this need in rethinking common procedures is of outstanding significance for any successful adaptation practice. Dealing with uncertainties of climate projections is a constant necessity, since they are always based on several simplifications, parameterisations and assumptions, e.g., on the future socioeconomic development or on climate sensitivity. Future climate should thus be communicated in bandwidths. Working with just one scenario, one climate model, or even working with ensemble means is risky as it evokes a higher than appropriate perceived confidence in the results. It encourages using familiar tools in processing climate information, rather than caution. Consequences are suboptimal adaption and misallocation of finances. We encourage working with bandwidths and testing climate adaptation options against a broad range of possible future climates. Climate

  20. Adaptation and Influence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paster, Thomas

    , and (d) the relationship of entrepreneurs and corporations to political institutions and public policies is primarily adaptive, rather than causative. The paper proposes a two-dimensional typology of business-politics relations that combines the Schumpeterian focus on adaptation with the Marxian focus...... on influence. These two dimensions - adaptation and influence - result in four ideal types: business-dominated social compromise, imposed social compromise, business dominance, and political confrontation. Examples from German welfare state history illustrate these four types. The paper suggests...