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Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. Peircean diagrams of time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can...... be done in terms of analogies and metaphors. In particular, it is attractive to make use of Peirce's diagrams by means of which various kinds of conceptual experimentation can be carried out. This paper investigates how Peircean diagrams can be used within the study of time. In particular, we discuss 1......) the topological properties of time, 2) the implicative structure in tense logic, 3) the notions of open future and branching time models, and finally 4) tenselogical alternatives to branching time models....

  3. A Peircean Inspired Typology of Print Advertising

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Christian; Sørensen, Bent

    2010-01-01

    types and is developed on the basis of an analysis of 150 quarto-, half-, and full-page advertisements from the Danish morning paper Berlingske Tidende. There are basically two traditions in advertising research — a semiotic one and a cognitive one. But none of these traditions have been used to suggest......Based on the hypothesis that Peircean semiotics can reveal how the construction of comprehension is at least partly a function of the structure of composition, the scope of this article is to present a new categorization of print advertising. The categorization consists of six different advertising...... a possible relation between composition and the effects of comprehension, as the conceptual foundation for a categorization seems, as does the Peircean variant of semiotics, to be very limited in advertising research as such. Generally seen, the purpose of the development of the present categorization...

  4. Neuronal adaptation effects in decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Theodoni, Panagiota; Kovacs, Gyula; Mark W Greenlee; Deco, Gustavo

    2011-01-01

    Recently, there has been an increased interest on the neural mechanisms underlying perceptual decision making. However, the effect of neuronal adaptation in this context has not yet been studied. We begin our study by investigating how adaptation can bias perceptual decisions. We considered behavioral data from an experiment on high-level adaptation-related aftereffects in a perceptual decision task with ambiguous stimuli on humans. To understand the driving force behind the perceptual decisi...

  5. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  6. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

  7. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years old) and 37 older adults (61 to 89 years old) completed the Cups task. In addition, the Numeracy Scale (Lipkus, Samsa, & Rimer, 2001) was used to measur...

  8. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  9. Decision criteria of potential solar IPH adapters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perwin, E.; Levine, A.; Mikasa, G.; Noun, R. J.; Schaller, D.

    1981-12-01

    If national programs are to be effective in the research and development of viable renewable resource technologies for the industrial sector, understanding industry's decision criteria will be important. The results of a preliminary investigation of the decision criteria of potential and actual users of solar industrial process heat systems are presented. Detailed interviews were completed with decision-makers from ten manufacturing firms. Based on economic theory, it was assumed that corporate decision-makers assess the expected cost, revenue, and uncertainty of competing investment opportunities. These decision criteria are composed of factors that are financial, technical, and institutional. Clearly, the firms interviewed were more concerned with costs than any other category of decision criteria. Most of the firms also believed that there was less uncertainty with competing investments than with current solar technology. Based on this preliminary investigation, a more extensive survey of industrial firms is suggested to determine a more comprehensive list of significant decision criteria.

  10. The adaptability of career decision-making profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-10-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young adults who were about to make a career choice, we assessed the individuals' decision status and the associations of the dimensions Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties (EPCD; Saka, Gati, & Kelly, 2008) and personality factors (NEO Personality Inventory-Revised; Costa & McCrae, 1992). The results suggest that, as hypothesized, comprehensive Information gathering, analytic Information processing, a more internal Locus of control, more Effort invested, less Procrastination, greater Speed of making the final decision, less Dependence on others, and less Desire to please others were more adaptive in making career decisions. However, contrary to our hypotheses, high Aspiration for an ideal occupation was more adaptive for the decision-making process, Willingness to compromise was not associated with more adaptive decision making, and the results regarding Consulting with others were mixed. Gender differences in the CDMP dimensions and counseling implications are discussed. PMID:22746185

  11. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS. PMID:26656389

  12. An adaptive two-decision sequential target trajectory detection algorithm using the decision statistics of plots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. S. Neuimin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The synthesis of an adaptive target trajectory detection algorithm having the opportunity along with the decision of the main tasks to perform SNR estimation is of great practical importance. For this simple complement sequential test is applied. Problem statement. The problem of the adaptive target trajectory detection can be formulated as a problem of a simple hypothesis sequential testing about the target track absence against the composite alternative with SNR estimating by using a minimum mean square error estimator. Development of an adaptive two-decision sequential target trajectory detection algorithm. In this section expressions for calculating the likelihood ratios and the SNR estimate are obtained. Effectiveness Analysis of Algorithm. Analysis of the adaptive algorithm is carried out as an example of target trajectory detection due to surveillance radar which measures range and range rate using the statistical modeling. The decision statistics related to noise- and target-originate measurements are described by an exponential distribution and Swerling 1 distribution respectively. With the purpose of comparative analysis, effectiveness analysis of non-adaptive sequential target trajectory detection algorithm based on the Wald test is also carried out. Conclusions. The developed adaptive algorithm reduces the decision time, as the decision in favor of the complex hypothesis of the target existence is taken without specifying simple hypothesis which having place. Average time true detection of false track when is reduced by 1.7 times compared to the non-adaptive two-decision algorithm.

  13. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  14. A Dynamic Model of Investor Decision-Making: How Adaptation to Losses Affects Future Selling Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, K.M.C.; Kraussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.; Paas, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    We conduct an experiment to test whether the size of a loss and the time in a losing position affect investors’ adaptation to the loss situation and, subsequently, whether this adaptation affects future investment decisions. As investors adapt to losses, their neutral reference point shifts downwards causing losses to become psychologically less painful. This shift in reference point is a dynamic process that is updated every time new information is received about the stock’s performance. The...

  15. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreas Krause,; Daniel Golovin,; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  16. Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Alqerm, Ismail

    2014-05-01

    Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.

  17. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  18. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  19. On the Road to Holistic Decision Making in Adaptive Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahsa Emami-Taba

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.

  20. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  1. Adaptation research meets adaptation decision-making. Second Nordic international conference on climate change adaption. Programme and abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Nearly two years have passed since a small team of researchers began a new chapter in Nordic co-operation on climate change by organising a conference in Stockholm, Sweden. The conference, entitled Climate Adaptation in the Nordic Countries - Science, Practice, Policy, co-ordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute and hosted by Stockholm University in November 2010, was the first of its kind in the Nordic region. Since the European Commission adopted its White Paper on adaptation to climate change in 2009, many of that document's 33 actions have been implemented, a climate change adaptation platform, Climate-ADAPT, was launched at the European Environment Agency in March this year, and just a week before this conference the Commission concluded a public consultation of stakeholders and experts in member states designed to feed into the preparation of a European Union adaptation strategy. The 2012 conference therefore presents an ideal opportunity to take stock of ongoing efforts and to consider how adaptation research efforts are keeping pace with policy demands as well as the needs of public and private decision-makers operating at a range of scales. It brings together researchers, public and private decision- makers, as well as those who plan and realize adaptation plans. Session themes include, among others: national and local adaptation plans, climate portals and climate services, adaptation in developing countries, legal aspects of adaptation, economic appraisal of adaptation, analysing and handling risk and uncertainty, urban planning and scenarios. The contributors have very diverse backgrounds, ranging from biosciences to social sciences, economics to geo-sciences, and engineering to architecture. Interest in climate change adaptation in the Nordic region is clearly high, with over 70% of our participants drawn from the five Nordic countries, but the conference has also managed to attract participation from further afield, with registrations

  2. Interpreting climate data visualisations to inform adaptation decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph D. Daron

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The appropriate development of graphical visualisations to communicate climate data is fundamental to the provision of climate services to guide climate change adaptation decisions. However, at present there is a lack of empirical evidence, particularly in Africa, to help climate information providers determine how best to communicate and display climate data. To help address this issue, an online survey, primarily targeted at the African vulnerability, impacts and adaptation community, was designed and disseminated widely. The survey examines the interpretation of climate data as a function of the style and information content of graphical visualisations. It is shown that choices made when constructing the visualisations, such as presenting percentile information versus showing the range, significantly impact on interpretation. Results also show that respondents who interpret a higher likelihood of future changes to climate, based on the visualisation of climate model projections, express greater confidence in their interpretations. The findings have relevance to the climate risk community in Africa and elsewhere across the world, and imply that a naïve approach to visualising climate data risks misinterpretation and unjustified levels of trust, with the potential to misinform adaptation and policy decisions.

  3. Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

  4. Using an Adaptive Genetic Algorithm to Improve Finance Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FaliangGui; TiesongHu

    2004-01-01

    Optimising both qualitative and quantitative factors is a key challenge in solving construction finance decisions. The semi-structured nature of construction finance optimisation problems precludes conventional optimisation techniques. With a desire to improve the performance of the canonical genetic algorithm (CCA) which is characterised by static crossover and mutation probability, and to provide contractors with a profit-risk trade-off curve and cash flow prediction, an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) model is developed. Ten projects being undertaken by a major construction firm in Hong Kong were used as case studies to evaluate the performance of the genetic algorithm (CA). The results of case study reveal that the ACA outperformed the CGA both in terms of its quality of solutions and the computational time required for a certain level of accuracy. The results also indicate that there is a potential for using the GA for modelling financial decisions should both quantitative and qualitative factors be optimised simultaneously.

  5. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  6. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  7. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian

    the benefits of provision of positive environmental values and the preservation of water resources. It is found that neglecting intangible values in climate adaptation assessment can easily bias the decision making; the reframed approach hence provide an important tool for assessment of additional benefits...... century, the design objectives of urban drainage systems also include elements such as environmental protection and amenity values. Among the objectives, flood protection has received much attention in recent years as a result of increasing flood hazards and risks due to climate change impacts. Although...... mitigation steps have been taken in attempts to reduce global warming, adaptation is highly advocated to supplement mitigation to cope with the unavoidable adverse impacts of flooding on vulnerable assets. The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating...

  8. Complexity in organizations and environment - adaptive changes and adaptive decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Fabac

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible. In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.

  9. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  10. Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Berry, Nina M.; Kyker, Ronald D.

    2003-12-01

    Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognize cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.

  11. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  12. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  13. Approximation Algorithms for Optimal Decision Trees and Adaptive TSP Problems

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Anupam; Nagarajan, Viswanath; Ravi, R

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of constructing optimal decision trees: given a collection of tests which can disambiguate between a set of $m$ possible diseases, each test having a cost, and the a-priori likelihood of the patient having any particular disease, what is a good adaptive strategy to perform these tests to minimize the expected cost to identify the disease? We settle the approximability of this problem by giving a tight $O(\\log m)$-approximation algorithm. We also consider a more substantial generalization, the Adaptive TSP problem. Given an underlying metric space, a random subset $S$ of cities is drawn from a known distribution, but $S$ is initially unknown to us--we get information about whether any city is in $S$ only when we visit the city in question. What is a good adaptive way of visiting all the cities in the random subset $S$ while minimizing the expected distance traveled? For this problem, we give the first poly-logarithmic approximation, and show that this algorithm is best possible unless w...

  14. Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

  15. Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

    CERN Document Server

    Farid, Dewan Md; Rahman, Mohammad Zahidur; 10.5121/ijnsa.2010.2202

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposed algorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS). We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learn...

  16. Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewan Md. Farid

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposedalgorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learning algorithms by employing on the KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset. The experimental results prove that the proposed algorithm achieved high detection rates (DR andsignificant reduce false positives (FP for different types of network intrusions using limited computational resources

  17. Towards context adaptive privacy decisions in ubiquitous computing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaub, Florian; Könings, Bastian; Weber, Michael; Kargl, Frank

    2012-01-01

    In ubiquitous systems control of privacy settings will be increasingly difficult due to the pervasive nature of sensing and communication capabilities. We identify challenges for privacy decisions in ubiquitous systems and propose a system for in situ privacy decision support. When context changes o

  18. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... impacts at local and regional scales; improving the geographical coverage of risk, vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and the availability of systematic and integrated assessments; and, providing information and guidance in a form appropriate for planners and decision makers. Another important area...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  19. Age-related differences in adaptive decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irwin P. Levin

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available While previous research has found that children make more risky decisions than their parents, little is known about the developmental trajectory for the ability to make advantageous decisions. In a sample of children, 5--11 years old, we administered a new risky decision making task in which the relative expected value (EV of the risky and riskless choice options was varied over trials. Younger children (age 5--7 showed significantly less responsiveness to EV differences than their parents on both trials involving risky gains and trials involving risky losses. For older children (age 8--11 this deficit was smaller overall but was greater on loss trials than on gain trials. Children of both ages made more risky choices than adults when risky choices were disadvantageous. We further analyzed these results in terms of children's ability to utilize probability and outcome information, and discussed them in terms of developing brain structures vital for decision making under uncertainty.

  20. Mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions: interaction and adaptability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.O. Zagornaya

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In article are motivated actual problems of the shaping the mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions with provision for specifics of management process operation and developments enterprise in condition of the contradiction of the problems its functional subdivisions. Is it Also designed methods of the shaping the intercepting the functional subdivisions within the framework of procedures budgetation in accordance with principle complex decision making.

  1. Fault diagnosis of induction motor based on decision trees and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

    OpenAIRE

    Tran, Tung; Yang, Bo-Suk; Oh, Myung-Suck; Tan, Andy Chit Chiow

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and le...

  2. A Study on the Design for Object-Oriented Adaptive Decision-Making Teams

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The modern war features a highly distributed coordination. In the face of great time constrains, it is important to change command organizations to adapt to the real environment. Therefore it's a key step to set up adaptive C2 teams. In this paper, the relational problems about distributed C2 organizational structure adaptation are discussed, and the methodology for team decision-making design based on the object-oriented technique is studied.

  3. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  4. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Li; Gross, Thilo

    2015-01-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures the phase transition to collective motion in swarming systems and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  5. Adaptive mode decision with residual motion compensation for distributed video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen;

    2015-01-01

    Distributed video coding (DVC) is a coding paradigm that entails low complexity encoding by exploiting the source statistics at the decoder. To improve the DVC coding efficiency, this paper proposes a novel adaptive technique for mode decision to control and take advantage of skip mode and intra...... mode in DVC. The adaptive mode decision is not only based on quality of key frames but also the rate of Wyner-Ziv (WZ) frames. To improve noise distribution estimation for a more accurate mode decision, a residual motion compensation is proposed to estimate a current noise residue based on a previously...... decoded frame. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptive mode decision DVC significantly improves the rate distortion performance without increasing the encoding complexity. For a GOP size of 2 on the set of test sequences, the average bitrate saving of the proposed codec is 35.5% on WZ...

  6. Adaptive mode decision with residual motion compensation for distributed video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen;

    2013-01-01

    Distributed video coding (DVC) is a coding paradigm that entails low complexity encoding by exploiting the source statistics at the decoder. To improve the DVC coding efficiency, this paper proposes a novel adaptive technique for mode decision to control and take advantage of skip mode and intra...... mode in DVC. The adaptive mode decision is not only based on quality of key frames but also the rate of Wyner-Ziv (WZ) frames. To improve noise distribution estimation for a more accurate mode decision, a residual motion compensation is proposed to estimate a current noise residue based on a previously...... decoded frame. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptive mode decision DVC significantly improves the rate distortion performance without increasing the encoding complexity. For a GOP size of 2 on the set of test sequences, the average bitrate saving of the proposed codec is 35.5% on WZ...

  7. A Decision Tree-Structured Algorithm of Speaker Adaptation Based on Gaussian Similarity Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Ji; WANG Zuoying

    2001-01-01

    Gaussian Similarity Analysis (GSA)algorithm can be used to estimate the similarity between two Gaussian distributed variables with full covariance matrix. Based on this algorithm, we propose a method in speaker adaptation of covariance. It is different from the traditional algorithms, which mainly focus on the adaptation of mean vector of state observation probability density. A binary decision tree is constructed offline with the similarity measure and the adaptation procedure is data-driven. It can be shown from the experiments that we can get a significant further improvement over the mean vectors adaptation.

  8. Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Pinto

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations, a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

  9. A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yueh eHsiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

  10. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    OpenAIRE

    Convertino, Matteo; Christy M. Foran; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Gregory A. Kiker; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find tha...

  11. Lost in Search: (Mal-)Adaptation to Probabilistic Decision Environments in Children and Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103…

  12. Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

  13. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Bowen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  14. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-02-01

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

  15. Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl;

    2015-01-01

    We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating...... rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...

  16. Adaptive management and environmental decision making. A case study application to water use planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive management approaches over time. However, the record of successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects the lack of an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on the insights of decision analysis, for evaluating the use of AM as a technique to improve environmental management decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans for more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, is introduced as a case-study example. The discussion emphasizes that decisions to adopt adaptive management strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across a variety of economic, environmental, and social objectives. As a result, adaptive management initiatives need to be carefully evaluated based on their merits relative to other alternatives. Within an AM framework, alternative experimental designs should be evaluated because the design of a preferred experiment involves choices among different levels of investment, the quality of available and desired future information, and different ecological, economic, and social risks. (author)

  17. A Bayesian decision-theoretic sequential response-adaptive randomization design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Fei; Jack Lee, J; Müller, Peter

    2013-05-30

    We propose a class of phase II clinical trial designs with sequential stopping and adaptive treatment allocation to evaluate treatment efficacy. Our work is based on two-arm (control and experimental treatment) designs with binary endpoints. Our overall goal is to construct more efficient and ethical randomized phase II trials by reducing the average sample sizes and increasing the percentage of patients assigned to the better treatment arms of the trials. The designs combine the Bayesian decision-theoretic sequential approach with adaptive randomization procedures in order to achieve simultaneous goals of improved efficiency and ethics. The design parameters represent the costs of different decisions, for example, the decisions for stopping or continuing the trials. The parameters enable us to incorporate the actual costs of the decisions in practice. The proposed designs allow the clinical trials to stop early for either efficacy or futility. Furthermore, the designs assign more patients to better treatment arms by applying adaptive randomization procedures. We develop an algorithm based on the constrained backward induction and forward simulation to implement the designs. The algorithm overcomes the computational difficulty of the backward induction method, thereby making our approach practicable. The designs result in trials with desirable operating characteristics under the simulated settings. Moreover, the designs are robust with respect to the response rate of the control group. PMID:23315678

  18. Preventing KPI Violations in Business Processes based on Decision Tree Learning and Proactive Runtime Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimka Karastoyanova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of business processes is measured and monitored in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs. If the monitoring results show that the KPI targets are violated, the underlying reasons have to be identified and the process should be adapted accordingly to address the violations. In this paper we propose an integrated monitoring, prediction and adaptation approach for preventing KPI violations of business process instances. KPIs are monitored continuously while the process is executed. Additionally, based on KPI measurements of historical process instances we use decision tree learning to construct classification models which are then used to predict the KPI value of an instance while it is still running. If a KPI violation is predicted, we identify adaptation requirements and adaptation strategies in order to prevent the violation.

  19. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    OpenAIRE

    David N. Yates; Kathleen A. Miller; Robert L. Wilby; Laurna Kaatz

    2015-01-01

    A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA) [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool [the hydrologic cycle and water ...

  20. The environment matters: Comparing individuals and dyads in their adaptive use of decision strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliane E. Kaemmer

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Individuals have been shown to adaptively select decision strategies depending on the environment structure. Two experiments extended this research to the group level. Subjects (N = 240 worked either individually or in two-person groups, or dyads, on a multi-attribute paired-comparison task. They were randomly assigned to two different environments that favored one of two prototypical decision strategies---weighted additive or take-the-best (between-subjects design in Experiment 1 and within-subject design in Experiment 2. Performance measures revealed that both individuals and dyads learned to adapt over time. A higher starting and overall performance rate in the environment in which weighted additive performed best led to the conclusion that weighted additive served as a default strategy. When this default strategy had to be replaced, because the environmental structure favored take-the-best, the superior adaptive capacity of dyads became observable in the form of a steeper learning rate. Analyses of nominal dyads indicate that real dyads performed at the level of the best individuals. Fine-grained analyses of information-search data are presented. Results thus point to the strong moderating role of the environment structure when comparing individual with group performance and are discussed within the framework of adaptive strategy selection.

  1. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  2. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-01-01

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation. PMID:27257106

  3. Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli L. Larson

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

  4. Translating Knowledge into Action: Supporting Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Zone through Information Provision and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Rissik, D.; Tonmoy, F. N.; Boulter, S.

    2015-12-01

    Adaptation to risks from climate change and sea-level rise is particularly important in Australia, where 70% of the population live in major coastal cities and 85% within 50km of the coast. Adaptation activity focuses at local government level and, in the absence of strong leadership from central government, the extent to which local councils have taken action to adapt is highly variable across the nation. Also, although a number of councils have proceeded as far as identifying their exposure to risk and considering adaptation options, this fails to translate into action. A principal reason for this is concern over the response from coastal residents to actions which may affect property values, and fear of litigation. A project is underway to support councils to understand their risks, evaluate adaptation options and proceed to action. This support will consist of a three-pronged framework: provision of information, a tool to support decision-making, and a community forum. Delivery involves research to understand the barriers to adaptation and how these may be overcome, optimal methods for delivery of information, and the information needs of organizations, action-takers and communities. The presentation will focus on the results of consultation undertaken to understand users' information needs around content and delivery, and how understanding of these needs has translated into design of the framework. A strongly preference was expressed to learn from peers, and a challenge for the framework is to understand how to inject adaptation knowledge which is up-to-date and accurate into peer-to-peer conversations. The community forum is one mechanism to achieve this. The basic structure and delivery mechanisms of the framework are shown in the attached.

  5. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulin P

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Paule Poulin,1 Lea Austen,1 Catherine M Scott,2 Michelle Poulin,1 Nadine Gall,2 Judy Seidel,3 René Lafrenière1 1Department of Surgery, 2Knowledge Management, 3Public Health Innovation and Decision Support, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada Purpose: Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods: We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada, for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1 development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2 education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3 evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4 joint evaluation via retreats, 5 synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6 evaluation of the adaptation process. Results: Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion: Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence

  6. Novel Adaptive Decision Threshold Modulation Technique for UWB Direct Chaotic Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Sadoudi

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A new non-coherent chaotic modulation technique based on adaptive decision threshold is proposed for the UltraWideBand (UWB Direct Chaotic Communication (DCC technology. The principal advantages of the proposed technique are: (1 Removing the threshold problem of the classical Chaotic On-Off Keying modulation technique which uses a nonzero decision threshold; (2 Providing a high throughput comparing to the others techniques since it do not uses any delay at the modulation; (3 Reducing the transmitted power, thanks to a transmitted bit energy devised by two. The obtained simulation results show high Bit Error Rate performances of the proposed technique applied in an UWB DCC system. In addition, the new chaotic modulation is more suitable in all DCC-based communications schemes.

  7. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  8. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  9. How can clinical practice guidelines be adapted to facilitate shared decision making? A qualitative key-informant study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijden, T.T. van der; Pieterse, A.H.; Koelewijn-van Loon, M.S.; Knaapen, L.; Legare, F.; Boivin, A.; Burgers, J.S.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Faber, M.J.; Elwyn, G.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To explore how clinical practice guidelines can be adapted to facilitate shared decision making. METHODS: This was a qualitative key-informant study with group discussions and semi-structured interviews. First, 75 experts in guideline development or shared decision making participated in

  10. Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, J.E.; Runge, M.C.; Laskowski, H.P.; Kendall, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring

  11. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E; Houdayer, Claude; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A

    2016-06-01

    Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

  12. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Thouvenot

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening.

  13. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  14. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  15. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  16. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David N. Yates

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.

  17. Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullinx, Cassandra; Phillips, Scott; Shenk, Kelly; Hearn, Paul; Devereux, Olivia

    2009-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

  18. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    OpenAIRE

    Epstein Richard H; Wachtel Ruth E; Dexter Franklin

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems dat...

  19. CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

    Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

  20. Online Adaptive Decision Fusion Framework Based on Entropic Projections onto Convex Sets with Application to Wildfire Detection in Video

    CERN Document Server

    Gunay, Osman; Kose, Kivanc; Cetin, A Enis

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an Entropy functional based online Adaptive Decision Fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several sub-algorithms each of which yielding its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular sub-algorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights which are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing sub-algorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video based wildfire detection system is developed to evaluate the performance of the algorithm in handling the problems where data arrives sequentially. In this case, the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. Simulation results are...

  1. Adaptive Capacity Within a Mega Project : A Case Study on Planning and Decision-Making in the Face of Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giezen, Mendel; Bertolini, Luca; Salet, Willem

    2015-01-01

    There is a tendency in policy to reduce the complexity of planning and decision-making by simplifying both the process and the scope of projects. However, by framing a planning project's scope or process in a narrow way at an early stage, the possibility of adapting to changes in the context, and th

  2. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2011-01-01

    Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

  3. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  4. Adapting EVIAVE methodology as a planning and decision-making tool in Venezuela

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landfills in Venezuela have serious problems regarding their location, design and operation. In fact, basic waste disposal is one of the main weaknesses of the municipal waste management in this country. The Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Resources has studied and identified the negative impacts of operating landfills, but no program has been implemented to determine the cause-effect relation of these impacts or to design strategies to counteract with the serious environmental and health risks generated. This paper describes how EVIAVE methodology can be successfully used for landfill diagnosis, and shows how this type of landfill diagnosis was applied in Venezuela. For our research study, we carried out both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the environmental problems generated by 22 landfills in Venezuela. Our study was based on the following environmental indexes: Landfill Environment, Environmental Risk, Environmental Value, and Probability of Contamination. For the purposes of our study, it was first necessary to adapt EVIAVE to the legal system and social context in Venezuela. The results obtained confirmed the applicability of this methodology to Venezuelan landfills. EVIAVE was found to be an effective planning tool that provided crucial information for the development of action plans, which would improve landfill operation, and help make decisions pertaining to their closure, sealing and eventual recovery.

  5. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  6. Decisiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Junichiro Ishida

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates how the presence of strong leadership influences an organization's ability to acquire and process information. The key concept is the leader's decisiveness. A decisive leader can make a bold move in response to a large change in the underlying landscape, whereas an indecisive leader biases her position excessively towards the status quo. An organization led by an indecisive leader needs to accumulate unrealistically strong evidence before it changes the course of actio...

  7. Usability of clinical decision support system as a facilitator for learning the assistive technology adaptation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and

  8. Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion;

    2014-01-01

    and in precipitation, although regional variations can be significant. The countries’ robust institutions and economies give them a strong capacity to adapt to these changes. Still, the need for adaptation to the changing climate has been and still is substantial, and in most of the region, there has been progress...... on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...... and weaknesses of a Nordic strategy for adaptation? In order to answer these two questions, this paper examines reviews the current national adaptation policies of each Nordic country and discusses the challenges facing a Nordic strategy and finally assesses the potential for common Nordic adaptation policy...

  9. Supporting adaptation decisions to address climate related impacts and hazards in the Caribbean (the CARIWIG project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Aidan

    2015-04-01

    Managers and policy makers from regional and national institutions in the Caribbean require knowledge of the likely impacts and hazards arising from the present and future climate that are specific to their responsibility and geographical range, and relevant to their planning time-horizons. Knowledge, experience and the political support to develop appropriate adaptation strategies are also required. However, the climate information available for the region is of limited use as: observational records are intermittent and typically of short duration; climate model projections of the weather suffer from scale and bias issues; and statistical downscaling to provide locally relevant unbiased climate change information remains sporadic. Tropical cyclone activity is a considerable sporadic hazard in the region and yet related weather information is limited to historic events. Further, there is a lack of guidance for managers and policy makers operating with very limited resources to utilize such information within their remit. The CARIWIG project (June 2012 - May 2015) will be presented, reflecting on stakeholder impact, best practice and lessons learned. This project seeks to address the climate service needs of the Caribbean region through a combination of capacity building and improved provision of climate information services. An initial workshop with regional-scale stakeholders initiated a dialogue to develop a realistic shared vision of the needed information services which could be provided by the project. Capacity building is then achieved on a number of levels: knowledge and expertise sharing between project partners; raising understanding and knowledge of resources that support national and regional institutions' adaptation decisions; developing case studies in key sectors to test and demonstrate the information services; training for stakeholder technical staff in the use of the provided services; the development of a support network within and out

  10. Application of Structured Decision Making to an Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options for Sustainable Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John L. Innes

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A logical starting point for climate change adaptation in the forest sector is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This should be followed by implementation of these options and monitoring their success in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context. Here, we implement an approach to identify locally appropriate adaptation options by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners while at the same time, building capacity within this community to implement the results. We engaged 30 forest practitioners who are involved with the implementation of a regional forest management plan in identifying climate change vulnerabilities and evaluating alternative adaptation options. A structured decision-making approach was used to frame the assessment. Practitioners identified 24 adaptation options that they considered important to implement in order to achieve the regional goals and objectives of sustainable forest management in light of climate change.

  11. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  12. Adaptive learning and decision-making under uncertainty by metaplastic synapses guided by a surprise detection system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iigaya, Kiyohito

    2016-01-01

    Recent experiments have shown that animals and humans have a remarkable ability to adapt their learning rate according to the volatility of the environment. Yet the neural mechanism responsible for such adaptive learning has remained unclear. To fill this gap, we investigated a biophysically inspired, metaplastic synaptic model within the context of a well-studied decision-making network, in which synapses can change their rate of plasticity in addition to their efficacy according to a reward-based learning rule. We found that our model, which assumes that synaptic plasticity is guided by a novel surprise detection system, captures a wide range of key experimental findings and performs as well as a Bayes optimal model, with remarkably little parameter tuning. Our results further demonstrate the computational power of synaptic plasticity, and provide insights into the circuit-level computation which underlies adaptive decision-making. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18073.001 PMID:27504806

  13. Adapted Framework for Data Mining Technique to Improve Decision Support System in an Uncertain Situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Bahgat El Seddawy

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support System (DSS is equivalent synonym as management information systems (MIS. Most of imported data are being used in solutions like data mining (DM. Decision supporting systems include also decisions made upon individual data from external sources, management feeling, and various other data sources not included in business intelligence. Successfully supporting managerial decision-making is critically dependent upon the availability of integrated, high quality information organized and presented in a timely and easily understood manner. Data mining have emerged to meet this need. They serve as anintegrated repository for internal and external data-intelligence critical to understanding and evaluating the business within its environmental context. With the addition of models, analytic tools, and user interfaces, they have the potential to provide actionable information that supports effective problem and opportunity identification, critical decision-making, and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The proposed system will support top level management to make a good decision in any time under any uncertain environment.

  14. Adapted Framework for Data Mining Technique to Improve Decision Support System in an Uncertain Situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hmed Bahgat El Seddawy

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support System (DSS is equivalent synonym as management information systems (MIS. Most of imported data are being used in solutions like data mining (DM. Decision supporting systems include also decisions made upon individual data from external sources, management feeling, and various other data sources not included in business intelligence. Successfully supporting managerial decision-making is critically dependent upon the availability of integrated, high quality information organized and presented in a timely and easily understood manner. Data mining have emerged to meet this need. They serve as anintegrated repository for internal and external data-intelligence critical to understanding and evaluating the business within its environmental context. With the addition of models, analytic tools, and user interfaces, they have the potential to provide actionable information that supports effective problem and opportunity identification, critical decision-making, and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The proposed system will support top level management to make a good decision in any time under any uncertain environment.

  15. Decision feedback Channel Estimation - A Precursor for Adaptive Data Transmission Management

    OpenAIRE

    Li, M; Bateman, A.; McGeehan, JP

    1991-01-01

    Two concepts are introduced: first, the notion of adaptive data transmission management to optimize modulation format and coding to channel conditions and, second, as a consequence of this strategy, the proposal of a reverse modulation channel sounding technique for elimination of the irreducible error rate floor, which otherwise limits modem performance under good signal conditions. The adaptive data transmission concept can potentially increase transmission throughput on a practical data ne...

  16. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M

    2011-10-22

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity.

  17. A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sindhu Ravindran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM. IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm.

  18. Educating the next generation decision makers - the multi-disciplinary classroom as a platform for developing communication skills needed for future progress of adaptation measures

    OpenAIRE

    Olofsson, Jörgen; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Linderson, Maj-Lena; Nilsson, Carin

    2015-01-01

    The scientific knowledge of climate change processes and their worrying future implications for human societies and natural systems has developed considerably during the last decade, but necessary adaptive actions by decision makers have so far been rather limited. There are several causes to this, such as a discrepancy related to the communication between climate scientists and end-users, and the lack of climate educational background of several decision makers. This results in decision make...

  19. Decision-support for climate change adaptation – applications for coastal regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    This Ph.D. project aims at developing a new decision-support framework for managing climate change in coastal areas. The framework is developed in order to facilitate screening of climate change impacts in all coastal areas worldwide and is designed as a complete system for combined multi...

  20. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  1. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

  2. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  3. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  4. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment...

  5. Cutthroat cooperation: the effects of team role decisions on adaptation to alternative reward structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Beersma; J.R. Hollenbeck; D.E. Conlon; S.E. Humphrey; H. Moon; D.R. Ilgen

    2009-01-01

    Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,

  6. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

    OpenAIRE

    Barreto, João Costa Borges

    2012-01-01

    In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants ...

  8. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  9. Supervised domain adaptation of decision forests: Transfer of models trained in vitro for in vivo intravascular ultrasound tissue characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conjeti, Sailesh; Katouzian, Amin; Roy, Abhijit Guha; Peter, Loïc; Sheet, Debdoot; Carlier, Stéphane; Laine, Andrew; Navab, Nassir

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a supervised domain adaptation (DA) framework for adapting decision forests in the presence of distribution shift between training (source) and testing (target) domains, given few labeled examples. We introduce a novel method for DA through an error-correcting hierarchical transfer relaxation scheme with domain alignment, feature normalization, and leaf posterior reweighting to correct for the distribution shift between the domains. For the first time we apply DA to the challenging problem of extending in vitro trained forests (source domain) for in vivo applications (target domain). The proof-of-concept is provided for in vivo characterization of atherosclerotic tissues using intravascular ultrasound signals, where presence of flowing blood is a source of distribution shift between the two domains. This potentially leads to misclassification upon direct deployment of in vitro trained classifier, thus motivating the need for DA as obtaining reliable in vivo training labels is often challenging if not infeasible. Exhaustive validations and parameter sensitivity analysis substantiate the reliability of the proposed DA framework and demonstrates improved tissue characterization performance for scenarios where adaptation is conducted in presence of only a few examples. The proposed method can thus be leveraged to reduce annotation costs and improve computational efficiency over conventional retraining approaches. PMID:27035487

  10. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  11. Obstacles to adaptation decisions in the developing world: A case study of coastal protection measures and sea-level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2014-12-01

    International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. Here, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects given the large uncertainty in future climate predictions, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (~20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments.

  12. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-01-01

    Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of...... identify all false errors represented by mispositioned dosimeters contrary to an error detection algorithm relying on the original reconstruction. Conclusions:The study demonstrates that the AEDA error identification during HDR/PDR BT relies on a stable dosimeter position rather than on an accurate...... dosimeter reconstruction, and the AEDA’s capacity to distinguish between true and false error scenarios. The study further shows that the AEDA can offer guidance in decision making in the event of potential errors detected with real-time in vivo point dosimetry....

  13. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  14. An analysis and study of decision tree induction operating under adaptive mode to enhance accuracy and uptime in a dataset introduced to spontaneous variation in data attributes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uttam Chauhan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Many methods exist for the purpose of classification of an unknown dataset. Decision tree induction is one of the well-known methods for classification. Decision tree method operates under two different modes: nonadaptive and adaptive mode. The non adaptive mode of operation is applied when the data set is completely mature and available or the data set is static and their will be no changes in dataset attributes. However when the dataset is likely to have changes in the values and attributes leading to fluctuation i.e., monthly, quarterly or annually, then under the circumstances decision tree method operating under adaptive mode needs to be applied, as the conventional non-adaptive method fails, as it needs to be applied once again starting from scratch on the augmented dataset. This makes things expensive in terms of time and space. Sometimes attributesare added into the dataset, at the same time number of records also increases. This paper mainly studies the behavioral aspects of classification model particularly, when number of attr bute in dataset increase due to spontaneous changes in the value(s/attribute(s. Our investigative studies have shown that accuracy of decision tree model can be maintained when number of attributes including class increase in dataset which increases thenumber of records as well. In addition, accuracy also can be maintained when number of values increase in class attribute of dataset. The way Adaptive mode decision tree method operates is that it reads data instance by instance and incorporates the same through absorption to the said model; update the model according to valueof attribute particular and specific to the instance. As the time required to updating decision tree can be less than introducing it from scratch, thus eliminating the problem of introducing decision tree repeatedly from scratch and at the same time gaining upon memory and time.

  15. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Knight

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  16. Speech Enhancement Algorithm Using Sub band Two Step Decision Directed Approach with Adaptive Weighting factor and Noise Masking Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepa Dhanaskodi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Speech Enhancement plays an important role in any of the speech processing systems like speech recognition, mobile communication, hearing aid. Approach: In this work, human perceptual auditory masking effect is incorporated into the single channel speech enhancement algorithm. The algorithm is based on a criterion by which the audible noise may be masked rather than being attenuated and thereby reducing the chance of distortion to speech. The basic decision directed approach is for efficient reduction of musical noise, that includes the estimation of the a priori SNR which is a crucial parameter of the spectral gain, follows the a posteriori SNR with a delay of one frame in speech frames. In this work a simple adaptive speech enhancement technique, using an adaptive sigmoid type function to determine the weighting factor of the TSDD algorithm is employed based on a sub band approach. In turn the spectral estimate is used to obtain a perceptual gain factor. Results: Objective and subjective measures like SNR, MSE, IS distance and were obtained, which shows the ability of the proposed method for efficient enhancement of noisy speech Conclusion/Recommendations: Performance assessment shows that our proposal can achieve a more significant noise reduction and a better spectral estimation of weak speech spectral components from a noisy signal as compared to the conventional speech enhancement algorithm.

  17. Decision making as community adaptation: a case study of emergency managers in Oklahoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, William R

    2008-06-01

    This paper explores how emergency managers make judgments regarding long-term policy and offers a sociological account of organisational decision making within an ecological context. Discussions with emergency managers focusing on the relative merits of rainfall estimation and tornado detection served as data with which to address these issues. Among the 39 interviewees, a consensus emerged favouring tornado detection over rainfall estimation. From these findings, the paper attempts to understand why emergency managers prefer tornado detection to rainfall estimation and to develop theoretical generalisations explaining trends in these preferences. When developing long-term policy, analysis of transcripts revealed emergency managers to be most concerned with the relative uncertainty of hazards, the capabilities of technology in hazard mitigation, and how the public perceives environmental threats. Given the environmental, technological, and social concerns reflected in this reasoning, there appears to be a strong ecological context driving the need for tornado detection among emergency managers. Implications and concerns are presented in the final section. PMID:18380856

  18. A decision support system for adaptive real-time management ofseasonal wetlands in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark

    2001-10-16

    This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperation the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.

  19. Adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  20. The Adaptive Decision-Making Process as a Tool for Integrated Natural Resource Management: Focus, Attitudes, and Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Lim-Applegate

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated natural resource management (INRM and its many closely related approaches are generally considered to be more effective than single-disciplinary approaches for managing the complex resource issues currently facing many countries. INRM approaches aim to integrate several disciplines and involve different stakeholders operating in their own subsystems across different spatial and temporal scales. These approaches focus on identifying management strategies for sustaining natural resource stocks and flows of goods and services as well as their underlying ecological processes. Changes in the behavior of consumers and producers and in the allocation of resources among uses, users, time, and space will be necessary to achieve sustainable development. To accomplish this, changes in focus, attitudes, and approaches to research and management will also be necessary. This paper argues that the key focus of INRM should not be the natural resource itself, but rather the interactions of humans with each other and with their natural environment, and the decisions they make about using and managing resources. Such decision-making processes aim to identify and implement action-oriented strategies and to apply economic and noneconomic instruments that motivate behavioral changes, allowing for different responses to various economic imperatives. This process should be guided by constructivist philosophy and supported by rigorous cross-disciplinary research and active stakeholder participation. It must be compatible with dialectic decision making to reflect the different views and objectives of the stakeholders, the presence of incomplete information, and, at times, the fact that researchers have only a poor understanding of the dynamics of subsystems and their interactions. There must also be iterative, regular monitoring and fine-tuning of the management strategies chosen. We prefer to call the entire process an adaptive decision-making process (ADMP

  1. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  2. Application of Error Management Theory in the Self- adaptive Decision-making%错误管理在自适应决策中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王立刚

    2016-01-01

    A serial of errors occur in the human judgment and decision-making. Counter-intuitively, these biases, however, represent adaptive solutions to the decision-making problems. In this paper,we systemically outline the logical relationship in the self-adaptive decision-making state,through the application of error management theory in the self-adaptive decision-making. Finally this claim strongly suggests that why humans prefer to cooperate with strangers.%人类在判断和决策时总会出现一系列的错误,然而,在违反直觉的情形下,错误偏见本身代表了对决策判断问题的自适应性解决办法。本文描述错误偏见在自适应性决策过程中的逻辑关系,通过对错误管理理论在自适应性决策中的运用,解释了人们为什么愿意与陌生人合作的决策过程。

  3. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  4. The Formation of Rational and Irrational Behaviors in Risky Investment Decision Making: Laboratory Experiment of Coping Theory Implication in Investors’ Adaptation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Wendy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control, investors tended to adapt the profit maximizing strategy (rational. Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control, three (threat-high control and four (threat-low control, they tended to adapt the profit satisfying strategy (rational-emotional, bad news handling strategy (emotional-rational, and self-preserving strategy (irrational respectively. The application of rational strategies are intended to obtain personal benefits and profit, while adapting irrational strategy is intended to recover emotional stability and reduce some other tensions. Another finding showed that for the investors, the relatively irrational decision formation was "harder" than that of rational.

  5. Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Chadwin B

    2011-05-01

    Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.

  6. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  7. Evaluation Within the Scope of Standa rdization and Adaptation of the Product Decisions Strategies Implemented by Unilever Knorr in the Turkish Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begüm Şahin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization

  8. Factors influencing smallholder cocoa production; a management analysis of behavioural decision-making processes of technology adaption and application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taher, S.

    1996-01-01

    The objectives of the study were to expand present knowledge on the technology adoption and application rates for production inputs and fermentation processing related to farmers' decision- making, and to formulate an optimal technology application policy, particularly for smallholder cocoa farmers.

  9. Coping with climate change uncertainty for adaptation planning: An improved criterion for decision making under uncertainty using UKCP09

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Green

    2014-01-01

    Analyses using sub-samples of the complete probabilistic dataset showed that the Green Z-score had comparable reproducibility to Laplace and improved reproducibility compared to other current decision criteria, and unlike Laplace is able to accommodate different risk attitudes.

  10. A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. (Louis Beex

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983. An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

  11. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  12. Self-adaptive Decision Model based on Agricultural Knowledge%面向农业领域知识的自适应决策模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李娜; 邓寒冰; 朴在林; 谭东明; 杨萍; 刘君

    2016-01-01

    随着信息技术的快速发展,农业知识和数据在互联网中呈现爆发式增长,如何实现农业信息的精准推送是农业信息化领域所面临的重要问题。为此,提出一种面向农业领域知识的自适应决策模型,设计了面向农业领域知识的思维决策模型AKDM (agriculture knowledge decision-making model),利用软件Agent主动采集网络环境中的知识信息,基于信息内容来推理、分析并导出结果,进而指导知识推送行为。结果表明:将农业本体知识转换成信念、愿望和意图集合,同时利用三者之间的决策推理关系指导知识推送行为,可以实现基于农业领域知识的自适应决策推理过程,且涉及的试验过程为实现农业信息的个性化智能推送提供了一个可行模型参考。%With the rapid development of information technology, agricultural knowledge and data have seen explosive growth in the internet. It has become a major problem facing the field of agricultural informatization to realize the precise pushing of agricultural information. This paper proposes an agricultural knowledge-oriented self-adaption decision-making model, the AKDM (agriculture knowledge decision-making model), which actively collects knowledge and information in the internet using Agent software, and performs reasoning, analyzing and result delivering based on the information collected, and finally giving instructions on knowledge pushing. The result showed it was possible to realize the self-adaption decision-making with regard to agricultural knowledge by converting agricultural knowledge into a cluster of faith, will and intention and guiding information pushing behavior by the relations of decision-making and reasoning among them. Thus, the experiment in this paper provides a feasible model for the intelligent personalized pushing of agricultural information.

  13. An Adaptive Decision Support System for Last Mile Logistics in E-Commerce: A Study on Online Grocery Shopping

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad K. Al-nawayseh; Mohammad M. Alnabhan; Al-Debei, Mutaz M.; Wamadeva Balachandran

    2013-01-01

    Last mile logistics represent one of the most important challenging issues in online grocery shopping. Online customers are expecting high logistical services, demanding convenience, high reliable and on-time delivery services. As such, online retailers have to respond to these expectations by providing convenient logistical services while keeping this process cost efficient as much as possible. This research aims to design an e-commerce logistical decision support system for online grocery s...

  14. Climate-Adapted Soil Cultivation as an Aspect for Sustainable Farming – Task-Technology-Fit of a Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welf Guenther-Lübbers

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.

  15. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

  16. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariella Siña

    Full Text Available Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  17. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  18. Adaptive models for decision making in production management for thermoelectrical plants; Modelos adaptativos para suporte a decisao na gestao da producao de unidades termeletricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)

  19. Guidance of treatment decisions in risk-adapted primary radiotherapy for prostate cancer using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging: a single center experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the prostate is considered to be the most precise noninvasive staging modality for localized prostate cancer. Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) dynamic sequences have recently been shown to further increase the accuracy of staging relative to morphological imaging alone. Correct radiological staging, particularly the detection of extraprostatic disease extension, is of paramount importance for target volume definition and dose prescription in highly-conformal curative radiotherapy (RT); in addition, it may affect the risk-adapted duration of additional antihormonal therapy. The purpose of our study was to analyze the impact of mpMRI-based tumor staging in patients undergoing primary RT for prostate cancer. A total of 122 patients admitted for primary RT for prostate cancer were retrospectively analyzed regarding initial clinical and computed tomography-based staging in comparison with mpMRI staging. Both tumor stage shifts and overall risk group shifts, including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and the Gleason score, were assessed. Potential risk factors for upstaging were tested in a multivariate analysis. Finally, the impact of mpMRI-based staging shift on prostate RT and antihormonal therapy was evaluated. Overall, tumor stage shift occurred in 55.7% of patients after mpMRI. Upstaging was most prominent in patients showing high-risk serum PSA levels (73%), but was also substantial in patients presenting with low-risk PSA levels (50%) and low-risk Gleason scores (45.2%). Risk group changes occurred in 28.7% of the patients with consequent treatment adaptations regarding target volume delineation and duration of androgen deprivation therapy. High PSA levels were found to be a significant risk factor for tumor upstaging and newly diagnosed seminal vesicle infiltration assessed using mpMRI. Our findings suggest that mpMRI of the prostate leads to substantial tumor upstaging, and can considerably affect treatment decisions in all

  20. Propose a Model for Customer Purchase Decision in B2C Websites Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrbakhsh Nilashi, Mohammad Fathian, Mohammad Reza Gholamian, Othman bin Ibrahim

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available If companies are to enjoy long-term success in the Internet marketplace, they must effectivelymanage the complex, multidimensional process of building online consumer trust. The onlineenvironment and the quality and usability of websites help the browser and consumer to beattracted and accessible to the information and the product and services available online. In thisPaper a new model would be suggested based on neuro-fuzzy System which depicts some of thehidden relationships between the critical factors such as security, familiarity, and designing in aB2C commercial website on other hand, and the competitive factor to other competitors on otherhand. Then, the impacts of these factors on purchasing decision of consumers in B2Ccommercial websites are extracted. We are going to find the impact of these factors on thedecision-making process of people to buy through the B2C commercial websites, and we also willanalyze how these factors influence the results of the B2C trading. The study also provides adevice for sellers to improve their commercial websites. Two questionnaires were used in thisstudy. The first questionnaire was developed for e-commerce experts, and the second one wasdesigned for the customers of commercial websites. Also, Expert Choice is used to determine thepriority of factors in the first questionnaire, and MATLAB and Excel are used for developing theFuzzy rules. Finally, the Fuzzy logical kit was use to analyze the generated factors in the model.

  1. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ker, Dai Fei Elmer; Weiss, Lee E; Junkers, Silvina N; Chen, Mei; Yin, Zhaozheng; Sandbothe, Michael F; Huh, Seung-il; Eom, Sungeun; Bise, Ryoma; Osuna-Highley, Elvira; Kanade, Takeo; Campbell, Phil G

    2011-01-01

    Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and developing robotic cell

  2. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Fei Elmer Ker

    Full Text Available Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and

  3. Critical appraisal of assumptions in chains of model calculations used to project local climate impacts for adaptation decision support—the case of Baakse Beek

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Arjan Wardekker, J.

    2015-04-01

    In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature under different national climate scenarios for a small region in the east of the Netherlands named Baakse Beek. The chain of models sequentially linked in that pilot includes a (future) weather generator and models of respectively subsurface hydrogeology, ground water stocks and flows, soil chemistry, vegetation development, crop yield and nature quality. These models typically have mismatching time step sizes and grid cell sizes. The linking of these models unavoidably involves the making of model assumptions that can hardly be validated, such as those needed to bridge the mismatches in spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and apply a method for the systematic critical appraisal of model assumptions that seeks to identify and characterize the weakest assumptions in a model chain. The critical appraisal of assumptions presented in this paper has been carried out ex-post. For the case of the climate impact model chain for Baakse Beek, the three most problematic assumptions were found to be: land use and land management kept constant over time; model linking of (daily) ground water model output to the (yearly) vegetation model around the root zone; and aggregation of daily output of the soil hydrology model into yearly input of a so called ‘mineralization reduction factor’ (calculated from annual average soil pH and daily soil hydrology) in the soil chemistry model. Overall, the method for critical appraisal of model assumptions presented and tested in this paper yields a rich qualitative insight in model uncertainty and model quality. It promotes reflectivity and learning in the modelling community, and leads to

  4. Bayesian integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization potency assessment: a decision support system for quantitative weight of evidence and adaptive testing strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworska, Joanna S; Natsch, Andreas; Ryan, Cindy; Strickland, Judy; Ashikaga, Takao; Miyazawa, Masaaki

    2015-12-01

    The presented Bayesian network Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS-3) for skin sensitization potency assessment is a decision support system for a risk assessor that provides quantitative weight of evidence, leading to a mechanistically interpretable potency hypothesis, and formulates adaptive testing strategy for a chemical. The system was constructed with an aim to improve precision and accuracy for predicting LLNA potency beyond ITS-2 (Jaworska et al., J Appl Toxicol 33(11):1353-1364, 2013) by improving representation of chemistry and biology. Among novel elements are corrections for bioavailability both in vivo and in vitro as well as consideration of the individual assays' applicability domains in the prediction process. In ITS-3 structure, three validated alternative assays, DPRA, KeratinoSens and h-CLAT, represent first three key events of the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization. The skin sensitization potency prediction is provided as a probability distribution over four potency classes. The probability distribution is converted to Bayes factors to: 1) remove prediction bias introduced by the training set potency distribution and 2) express uncertainty in a quantitative manner, allowing transparent and consistent criteria to accept a prediction. The novel ITS-3 database includes 207 chemicals with a full set of in vivo and in vitro data. The accuracy for predicting LLNA outcomes on the external test set (n = 60) was as follows: hazard (two classes)-100 %, GHS potency classification (three classes)-96 %, potency (four classes)-89 %. This work demonstrates that skin sensitization potency prediction based on data from three key events, and often less, is possible, reliable over broad chemical classes and ready for practical applications. PMID:26612363

  5. 基于相似度衡量的决策树自适应迁移%Self-adaptive Transfer for Decision Trees Based on Similarity Metric

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪松; 潘杰; 程玉虎; 曹戈

    2013-01-01

    如何解决迁移学习中的负迁移问题并合理把握迁移的时机与方法,是影响迁移学习广泛应用的关键点.针对这个问题,提出一种基于相似度衡量机制的决策树自适应迁移方法(Self-adaptive transfer for decision trees based on a similarity metric,STDT).首先,根据源任务数据集是否允许访问,自适应地采用成分预测概率或路径预测概率对决策树间的相似性进行判定,其亲和系数作为量化衡量关联任务相似程度的依据.然后,根据多源判定条件确定是否采用多源集成迁移,并将相似度归一化后依次分配给待迁移源决策树作为迁移权值.最后,对源决策树进行集成迁移以辅助目标任务实现决策.基于UCI机器学习库的仿真结果说明,与多源迁移加权求和算法(Weighted sum rule,WSR)和MS-TrAdaBoost相比,STDT能够在保证决策精度的前提下实现更为快速的迁移.

  6. 复杂群决策系统的适应性及其决策机理研究%The Adaptability and Mechanism of Complex Group Decision - making System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘明广

    2012-01-01

    随着社会上各类群决策问题的不断发展,例如上市公司董事会决策、政府宏观规划与战略决策以及网络招投标决策等,所有的这些群决策问题都呈现了一些新特点,传统的群决策理论已逐渐显得无能为力,需要发展新的群决策理论体系。最近兴起的复杂性科学理论为研究此类群决策问题提供了一种新的研究视角。鉴于上述研究背景,本文首先运用复杂适应系统理论分析复杂群决策系统的适应性特性,其次对复杂群决策系统的决策机理进行深入剖析,最后对复杂群决策系统的管理与控制问题进行探讨。%With the development of various types of group decision-making in society, such as the board decision-making of listed companies, the government' s macroeconomic planning and strategic deci- sion-making and network bidding, all of these group decision-making problems have shown some new fea- tures, the traditional theories of group decision-making have gradually become powerless. The recent theo- ries complexity provides a new perspective for group decision-making. Given the above background, this paper analyses the adaptive behavior using the complex adaptive system, studies the complex group deci- sion- making system and investigates the management and control issues about the complex group deci- sion-making system.

  7. Strategic Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation....... This model incorporates elements of central strategizing, autonomous entrepreneurial behavior, interactive information processing, and open communication systems that enhance the organization's ability to observe exogenous changes and respond effectively to them....

  8. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses. PMID:26845302

  9. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses.

  10. A New Method for Detection of Backscattered Signals from Breast Cancer Tumors: Hypothesis Testing Using an Adaptive Entropy-Based Decision Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Vahab Shojaedini

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction In recent years methods based on radio frequency waves have been used for detecting breast cancer. Using theses waves leads to better results in early detection of breast cancer comparing with conventional mammography which has been used during several years. Materials and Methods In this paper, a new method is introduced for detection of backscattered signals which are received by microwave breast radar. In this method, a decision function is constructed based on noise and signal cross-entropy, using hypothesis testing concept. Then noise and signal are separated using the calculated value for the decision function in each time frame. To estimate value of the decision function, discrete wavelet transform and discrete S transform are used. Results Performance of the proposed method was evaluated in two different scenarios, in which the breast was considered homogenous and heterogeneous, respectively. The obtained results showed that the proposed method detected breast backscattered signals 55% and 49% better than existing methods in two above scenarios. Conclusion Performance of S transform was 21% better than discrete wavelet transform in detection of weak backscattered signals. So it can be concluded that hypothesis testing method which uses S coefficients of received wave for construction of its decision function may be a suitable choice for detection of backscattered signals in breast radar.

  11. Split Decisions, Split Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The lead stories in Nature and Science went in opposite directions this week. Science chose outer space, launching into NASA’s hotly disputed decision to shelve a planned mission to Pluto. Nature plunged into inner space with a story about a report to the European Commission advising against granting “premature” approval to create human embryos for stem-cell research.

  12. A closer look at the effects of repeated cocaine exposure on adaptive decision making under conditions that promote goal-directed control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Briac eHalbout

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-d series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p. or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats’ ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action-outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine’s effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system.

  13. A Closer Look at the Effects of Repeated Cocaine Exposure on Adaptive Decision-Making under Conditions That Promote Goal-Directed Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbout, Briac; Liu, Angela T; Ostlund, Sean B

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible) over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible) action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-day series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus, it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats' ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action-outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine's effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system. PMID:27047400

  14. Development of a decision support system for the adaptation to climate change using water management as an example; Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsunterstuetzungssystems zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel am Beispiel der Wasserwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinisch, Timo

    2010-07-01

    Water management adaption strategies due to climate change are a very prevailing topic which is often discussed in the media. In the work at hand, the author has treated this subject within the research project of the Federal Ministry of Environment (BMU), Nature Protection and Reactor Safety - coached by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) - and has developed a new decision support system (DSS), named ''WASKlim-EUS''. With the aid of this new system possible future situations of selected water uses - for certain drainage areas - can be demonstrated, taking into account climate change. On the basis of different adaption measures and their evaluation by stakeholders a defined adaption strategy can be implemented. The DSS is based on the methods of fuzzy-logic, the analytic hierarchical process and the utility analysis. Therefore the basis of the climate change and the meterorological and hydrological effects on the water management in Germany in general and on different water uses in particular were explained. Hence the exigency to develop a adaption strategy clearly emerges. The concept of the newly developed WASKlim-EUS - which in a four step configuration ranges from the identification of parameters, the evaluation of current states and measures to the election of the adaption strategy with the according program of measures - was described and the used methods wer explained in detail. By means of three mesoscale study areas the new DSS was put into practice. For the purpose user conferences and stakeholder interviews were carried out and evaluated. For the Wupper catchment need of action was indicated for the sectors of water power plants, cooling water output and input and fishery. For the catchment area of the Salza all considered water uses were identified as vulnerable. For the catchment area of the Upper Iller, need of action was detected for the water situation in general, the fishery and the effluent from sewage treatment plants

  15. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  16. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  17. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  18. 基于改进决策树算法的Web数据库查询结果自动分类方法%A Categorization Approach Based on Adapted Decision Tree Algorithm for Web Databases Query Results

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟祥福; 马宗民; 张霄雁; 王星

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the problem that too many results are returned from a Web database in response to a user query, this paper proposes a novel approach based on adapted decision tree algorithm for automatically categorizing Web database query results. The query history of all users in the system is analyzed offline and then similar queries in semantics are merged into the same cluster. Next, a set of tuple clusters over the original data is generated in accordance to the query clusters, each tuple cluster corresponding to one type of user preferences. When a query is coming, based on the tuple clusters generated in the offline time, a labeled and leveled categorization tree, which can enable the user to easily select and locate the information he/she needs, is constructed by using the adapted decision tree algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that the categorization approach has lower navigational cost and better categorization effectiveness, and can meet different type user's personalized query needs effectively as well.%为了解决Web数据库多查询结果问题,提出了一种基于改进决策树算法的Web数据库查询结果自动分类方法.该方法在离线阶段分析系统中所有用户的查询历史并聚合语义上相似的查询,根据聚合的查询将原始数据划分成多个元组聚类,每个元组聚类对应一种类型的用户偏好.当查询到来时,基于离线阶段划分的元组聚类,利用改进的决策树算法在查询结果集上自动构建一个带标签的分层分类树,使得用户能够通过检查标签的方式快速选择和定位其所需信息.实验结果表明,提出的分类方法具有较低的搜索代价和较好的分类效果,能够有效地满足不同类型用户的个性化查询需求.

  19. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  20. Composite collective decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms.

  1. Adaptive Rationality, Adaptive Behavior and Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volchik Vyacheslav, V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic literature focused on understanding decision-making and choice processes reveals a vast collection of approaches to human rationality. Theorists’ attention has moved from absolutely rational, utility-maximizing individuals to boundedly rational and adaptive ones. A number of economists have criticized the concepts of adaptive rationality and adaptive behavior. One of the recent trends in the economic literature is to consider humans irrational. This paper offers an approach which examines adaptive behavior in the context of existing institutions and constantly changing institutional environment. It is assumed that adaptive behavior is a process of evolutionary adjustment to fundamental uncertainty. We emphasize the importance of actors’ engagement in trial and error learning, since if they are involved in this process, they obtain experience and are able to adapt to existing and new institutions. The paper aims at identifying relevant institutions, adaptive mechanisms, informal working rules and practices that influence actors’ behavior in the field of Higher Education in Russia (Rostov Region education services market has been taken as an example. The paper emphasizes the application of qualitative interpretative methods (interviews and discourse analysis in examining actors’ behavior.

  2. ENTREPRENEURSHIP AS DECISION MAKING: RATIONAL, INTUITIVE AND IMPROVISATIONAL APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Miguel Pina e Cunha

    2007-01-01

    In this paper entrepreneurship is presented as decision making. Mintzberg and Westley's (2001) decision making typology is adapted to the case of entrepreneurial decision making. These authors complemented the rational, step-by-step mode of decision making, with the intuitive and improvisational modes, Complementing the rational view of decision making with the analysis of entrepreneurship as intuitive or improvisational decision making, a richer and more integrated understanding of entrepren...

  3. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    OpenAIRE

    Stefania Munaretto; Giuseppina Siciliano; Margherita E. Turvani

    2014-01-01

    Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decisi...

  4. Comparison of Adaptive Information Security Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Antti Evesti; Eila Ovaska

    2013-01-01

    Dynamically changing environments and threat landscapes require adaptive information security. Adaptive information security makes it possible to change and modify security mechanisms at runtime. Hence, all security decisions are not enforced at design-time. This paper builds a framework to compare security adaptation approaches. The framework contains three viewpoints, that is, adaptation, security, and lifecycle. Furthermore, the paper describes five security adaptation approaches and compa...

  5. Decision Making and Revealed Preference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

    If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

  6. Failing Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... as a controlled cost for achieving organizational goals. Decisions must fail so the organization can succeed. This chapter uses two cases to elaborate on these ideas. By way of introduction, I will reflect on the notion of ‘failing decisions’ within organization and decision theory. This chapter is also propelled...

  7. Adaptive Lighting

    OpenAIRE

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive LightingAdaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled i...

  8. Integrating Decision Support and Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Antunes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We elaborate on the shifting of decision support systems towards social networking, which is based on the concepts of Web 2.0 and Semantic Web technology. As the characteristics of the relevant components are different from traditional decision support systems, we present necessary adaptations when adopting social networks for decision support within an organization. We also present organizational obstacles when adopting/using such systems and clues to overcome them.

  9. Single-photon decision maker

    CERN Document Server

    Naruse, Makoto; Drezet, Aurelien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-01-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  10. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  11. Adaptation: Needs, Financing and Institutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))

    2008-07-01

    the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

  12. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  13. How Peircean was the "'Fregean' Revolution" in Logic?

    OpenAIRE

    Anellis, Irving H.

    2012-01-01

    The historiography of logic conceives of a Fregean revolution in which modern mathematical logic (also called symbolic logic) has replaced Aristotelian logic. The preeminent expositors of this conception are Jean van Heijenoort (1912-1986) and Donald Angus Gillies. The innovations and characteristics that comprise mathematical logic and distinguish it from Aristotelian logic, according to this conception, created ex nihlo by Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) in his Begriffsschrift of 1879, and with B...

  14. How Peircean was the "'Fregean' Revolution" in Logic?

    CERN Document Server

    Anellis, Irving H

    2012-01-01

    The historiography of logic conceives of a Fregean revolution in which modern mathematical logic (also called symbolic logic) has replaced Aristotelian logic. The preeminent expositors of this conception are Jean van Heijenoort (1912-1986) and Donald Angus Gillies. The innovations and characteristics that comprise mathematical logic and distinguish it from Aristotelian logic, according to this conception, created ex nihlo by Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) in his Begriffsschrift of 1879, and with Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) as its chief This position likewise understands the algebraic logic of Augustus De Morgan (1806-1871), George Boole (1815-1864), Charles Sanders Peirce (1838-1914), and Ernst Schr\\"oder (1841-1902) as belonging to the Aristotelian tradition. The "Booleans" are understood, from this vantage point, to merely have rewritten Aristotelian syllogistic in algebraic guise. The most detailed listing and elaboration of Frege's innovations, and the characteristics that distinguish mathematical logic from ...

  15. Learning and Teaching Critical Thinking: From a Peircean Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Kelley

    2009-01-01

    The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…

  16. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... distributed differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial...

  17. Administrative decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article reviews relevant administrative decisions that have been taken in various countries during the last semester of 1999 and the first one of 2000. In Argentina, an inter-ministerial commission has been settled to examine the prospects of completing the construction of the Atucha-2 unit. In Sweden, an agreement has been signed between Sydkraft, Vattenfall and the Swedish government on a compensation plan for the early shutdown of the Barsebaeck unit 1. In Switzerland, the government of the canton of Bern has rejected a constitutional initiative requesting the shutdown of the Muehleberg nuclear power plant. (A.C.)

  18. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  19. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  20. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... the investigations of lighting scenarios carried out in two test installations: White Cube and White Box. The test installations are discussed as large-scale experiential instruments. In these test installations we examine what could potentially occur when light using LED technology is integrated and...

  1. Decision theory and decision behaviour

    CERN Document Server

    Rapoport, Anatol

    1998-01-01

    The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.

  2. Adaptive Computing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrell, William

    1999-01-01

    Provides information on various adaptive technology resources available to people with disabilities. (Contains 19 references, an annotated list of 129 websites, and 12 additional print resources.) (JOW)

  3. ADAPT Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) Project Lead: Scott Poll Subject Fault diagnosis in electrical power systems Description The Advanced...

  4. Administrative decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On 17 January 2002, the Finnish Council of State (the Government) had issued a positive Decision in Principle on the application made by the utility Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) to construct a new nuclear power plant unit (see Nuclear Law Bulletin No. 69). At that time, the Council of State also declared that the liability amount of nuclear operators should be raised significantly, and three ministers issued a statement according to which the 1987 Nuclear Energy Act (the text of this Act is reproduced in the Supplement to Nuclear Law Bulletin No. 41) should be amended to ensure that the nuclear operator has to bear liability for the costs of radioactive waste management for 50 years after the repository has been closed. (author)

  5. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  6. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  7. Adaptive representations for reinforcement learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Whiteson

    2010-01-01

    This book presents new algorithms for reinforcement learning, a form of machine learning in which an autonomous agent seeks a control policy for a sequential decision task. Since current methods typically rely on manually designed solution representations, agents that automatically adapt their own r

  8. Psychological conditions of adaptation to professional stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Tereshenko

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of empirical studies of the occupational stress and adaptation. The study shows that the process of adaptation to stress affect the socio-psychological characteristics. Constructive ways of behavior are: the choice of cooperation, a strong desire to be with people, taking responsibility and decision-making.

  9. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  10. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  11. Adaptive sensor fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadar, Ivan

    1995-07-01

    A perceptual reasoning system adaptively extracting, associating, and fusing information from multiple sources, at various levels of abstraction, is considered as the building block for the next generation of surveillance systems. A system architecture is presented which makes use of both centralized and distributed predetection fusion combined with intelligent monitor and control coupling both on-platform and off-board track and decision level fusion results. The goal of this system is to create a `gestalt fused sensor system' whose information product is greater than the sum of the information products from the individual sensors and has performance superior to either individual or a sub-group of combined sensors. The application of this architectural concept to the law enforcement arena (e.g. drug interdiction) utilizing multiple spatially and temporally diverse surveillance platforms and/or information sources, is used to illustrate the benefits of the adaptive perceptual reasoning system concept.

  12. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation? Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning. The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition

  13. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  14. Improving scalable video adaptation in a knowledge-based framework

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez Hernandez, Fernando; Nur, Gokce; Dogan, Safak; Arachchi, Hemantha; Mrak, M.; Martinez, Jose Maria; García Santos, Narciso; Kondoz, Ahmet

    2010-01-01

    In a knowledge-based content adaptation framework, video adaptation can be performed in a series of steps, named conversions. The high-level decision phase in such a framework occasionally encounters several feasible parameter values of a specific conversion. This paper proposes to transfer further decisions to a low-level phase that decides which parameters maximise the quality of the adaptation. Particularly when more than one solution are available, an innovative quality measure is used fo...

  15. Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See?

    OpenAIRE

    Narita, Daiju; Quaas, Martin F.

    2012-01-01

    As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework for adaptation in agricultural production, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals' (farmers') investment decisions with regard to adaptation (switching from rainfed to irrigated farming). The option value delays adaptation easily for sev...

  16. Adaptive test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Lars Peter; Eriksen, Mette Rose

    2010-01-01

    Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale.......Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale....

  17. Adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  18. Modeling collective & intelligent decision making of multi-cellular populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong-Jun; Mahrou, Bahareh

    2014-01-01

    In the presence of unpredictable disturbances and uncertainties, cells intelligently achieve their goals by sharing information via cell-cell communication and making collective decisions, which are more reliable compared to individual decisions. Inspired by adaptive sensor network algorithms studied in communication engineering, we propose that a multi-cellular adaptive network can convert unreliable decisions by individual cells into a more reliable cell-population decision. It is demonstrated using the effector T helper (a type of immune cell) population, which plays a critical role in initiating immune reactions in response to invading foreign agents (e.g., viruses, bacteria, etc.). While each individual cell follows a simple adaptation rule, it is the combined coordination among multiple cells that leads to the manifestation of "self-organizing" decision making via cell-cell communication.

  19. Informatics Perspectives on Decision Taking

    CERN Document Server

    Bergstra, J A

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for instance: plan, command, assertion, or boolean reply to a question. A decision effect is any consequence of putting a decision outcome into effect. Decision outcomes must be expected by the decider to lead to certain decision effects, by way of their being put into effect. The availability of a model or of a theory of the causal chain leading from a decision outcome to one or more decision effects is assumed for the decision taker, otherwise the decision outcome is merely an utterance. Decision effectiveness measures the decision effects against objectives meant to be served with the decision. Decision taking is positioned amidst many similar notions including: decision making, decision process, decision making proce...

  20. The Dynamics of Strategic Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia

    Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top managemen....... We present an experiment to investigate these effects and discuss the implications for strategic response capabilities among firms....

  1. Project Decision Chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter;

    2015-01-01

    To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

  2. Promoting Metacognitive Decision-Making in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…

  3. Adaptation Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul

    2011-11-15

    Efforts to help the world's poor will face crises in coming decades as climate change radically alters conditions. Action Research for Community Adapation in Bangladesh (ARCAB) is an action-research programme on responding to climate change impacts through community-based adaptation. Set in Bangladesh at 20 sites that are vulnerable to floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise, ARCAB will follow impacts and adaptation as they evolve over half a century or more. National and international 'research partners', collaborating with ten NGO 'action partners' with global reach, seek knowledge and solutions applicable worldwide. After a year setting up ARCAB, we share lessons on the programme's design and move into our first research cycle.

  4. Adaptive ethnography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berth, Mette

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of an adaptive ethnography when studying such phenomena as young people's use of mobile media in a learning perspective. Mobile media such as PDAs and mobile phones have a number of affordances which make them potential tools for learning. However, before we begin...... formal and informal learning contexts. The paper also proposes several adaptive methodological techniques for studying young people's interaction with mobiles....... to design and develop educational materials for mobile media platforms we must first understand everyday use and behaviour with a medium such as a mobile phone. The paper outlines the research design for a PhD project on mobile learning which focuses on mobile phones as a way to bridge the gap between...

  5. Hedonic "adaptation"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Rozin

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to dead bodies as disgust elicitors, by measuring specific types of disgust sensitivity in medical students before and after they have spent a few months dissecting a cadaver. Using the Disgust Scale, we find a significant reduction in disgust responses to death and body envelope violation elicitors, but no significant change in any other specific type of disgust. There is a clear reduction in discomfort at touching a cold dead body, but not in touching a human body which is still warm after death.

  6. Adaptive noise

    OpenAIRE

    Viney, Mark; Reece, Sarah E.

    2013-01-01

    In biology, noise implies error and disorder and is therefore something which organisms may seek to minimize and mitigate against. We argue that such noise can be adaptive. Recent studies have shown that gene expression can be noisy, noise can be genetically controlled, genes and gene networks vary in how noisy they are and noise generates phenotypic differences among genetically identical cells. Such phenotypic differences can have fitness benefits, suggesting that evolution can shape noise ...

  7. Adaptable positioner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 22 fig. 6 ref

  8. Selecting decision strategies: the differential role of affect

    OpenAIRE

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; von Helversen, Bettina

    2015-01-01

    Many theories on cognition assume that people adapt their decision strategies depending on the situation they face. To test if and how affect guides the selection of decision strategies, we conducted an online study (N = 166), where different mood states were induced through video clips. Results indicate that mood influenced the use of decision strategies. Negative mood, in particular anger, facilitated the use of non-compensatory strategies, whereas positive mood promoted compensatory decisi...

  9. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  10. Decision-Making Procedure and Decision Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleson, Brant R.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Strongly confirmed the hypothesis that groups employing an interacting decision procedure would produce better decisions than groups employing procedures that are either nominal (Delphi) or "staticized" (individual judgments statistically pooled). Provides clear and consistent support for the value of social interaction in small group decision…

  11. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Developmental changes in effects of risk and valence on adolescent decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Wolf, L.K.; Kilford, E. J.; Blakemore, S-J; Wright, N. D.; Dolan, R. J.

    2013-01-01

    Recent research on risky decision-making in adults has shown that both the risk in potential outcomes and their valence (i.e., whether those outcomes involve gains or losses) exert dissociable influences on decisions. We hypothesised that the influences of these two crucial decision variables (risk and valence) on decision-making would vary developmentally during adolescence. We adapted a risk-taking paradigm that provides precise metrics for the impacts of risk and valence. Decision-making i...

  13. Climate change and adaptation of small-scale cattle and sheep farmers

    OpenAIRE

    Mandleni, B.; Anim, F.D.K.

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to investigate the factors that affected the decision of small-scale farmers who kept cattle and sheep on whether to adapt or not to climate changes. The Binary Logistic Regression model was used to investigate farmers’ decision. The results implied that a large number of socio-economic variables affected the decision of farmers on adaptation to climate changes. The study concluded that the most significant factors affecting climate change and adaptation w...

  14. Intelligent handoff decision in radio heterogeneous network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Qiang; XU Xiang-hua; WANG Ying-long

    2008-01-01

    In order to improve the accuracy of vertical handoff decision for radio heterogeneous network, this paper proposes an intelligent adaptive multi-criteria vertical handoff (AMVHO) decision algorithm. This algo-rithm uses a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and a modified Elman neural network (MENN). The FIS adopts the crucial criteria of vertical handoff as input variables and makes handoff decision based on the defined rule base. The MENN helps to predict the number of users of the after-bandoff network, which is a pivotal variable of the FIS. Simulation results show that, compared with the conventional method, the AMVHO decision algorithm a-chieves better performance in guaranteeing the quality of service (QoS) of the after-handoff communication.

  15. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    CERN Document Server

    Loredo, T J

    2004-01-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data--measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object--show the approach can significantly improve observational eff...

  16. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  17. Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fitzgerald, D.S.; Adams, D.G.

    1994-08-01

    Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ``fuzzy`` sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion.

  18. Informatics perspectives on decision taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Bergstra

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for in

  19. Physical culture as a powerful factor facilitating adaptation of foreign students at the university

    OpenAIRE

    Grutsyak N.B; Grutsyak V.І.

    2010-01-01

    The problems of adaptation are considered foreign student in the institutes of higher. Directions of decision of problems of social and individual psychological adaptation of student are rotined. The methods of adaptive physical activity are used. The ways of realization of the adaptation health programs are set for a foreign student. It is suggested to enter preparations of student basic methods of adaptive physical culture in practice. It is recommended to enter an adaptive physical culture...

  20. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas J.

    2004-04-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation-Inference-Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data-measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object-show the approach can significantly improve observational efficiency in settings that have well-defined nonlinear models. I conclude with a list of open issues that must be addressed to make Bayesian adaptive exploration a practical and reliable tool for optimizing scientific exploration.

  1. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  2. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian;

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

  3. 影响我国个人捐赠者捐赠决策过程的心理机制--基于情感适应理论的实证研究%The Mechanism Affecting Donation Decision Making Process:An Emotional Adaptation Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋晶

    2014-01-01

    Based on the emotion adaptation theory and the model of helping behavior, this study proposes a model of do-nation decision making process and tests it by a nation-wide sample of 1853 people. The results reveal that donation de-cision making process is a dynamic mechanism in which perceived organization image and advertising appeals appraisals produce emotional responses among the potential donors, emotions subsequently affect donation intention, however, via the mediating role of donation motivation. Besides, previous donation experience is found to mediatedly moderate the de-cision process by an interation effect with emotions on motivation. Namely, when the potential donor has more previous donation experiences, the effect of emotions on motivation and intension attenuates, visa versa. Theoretial and manageri-al contributions are addressed.%基于帮助决策模型和情感适应理论,本研究建立了我国个人捐赠者的捐赠决策模型,并通过发放全国性问卷进行数据搜集,验证了刺激→情感→动机→意向这一动态心理机制。研究结果显示我国个人捐赠行为是一个动态的心理决策过程,其中由公益组织传递的组织形象和广告诉求经过了潜在捐赠人的评价而产生了不同的情感状态,该情感状态诱发利己动机或者利他动机继而影响其捐赠意愿。此外,个人捐赠经历与情感状态交互作用于动机并对捐赠意愿产生影响,即在个人捐赠经历多的情况下,由感知组织形象和广告诉求评价所引发的情感对于捐赠意愿的影响较小;而个人捐赠经历少的情况下,该情感对捐赠意愿的影响较大。

  4. Adaptive management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rist, Lucy; Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Frost, Peter

    2013-01-01

    in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how...... a management framework, as well as of identified challenges and pathologies, are needed. Further discussion and systematic assessment of the approach is required, together with greater attention to its definition and description, enabling the assessment of new approaches to managing uncertainty, and AM itself.......Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used...

  5. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  6. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John Ernest

    The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... students a variety of decision making skills as they prepare themselves to work in international companies. This is the task initiated in this book. It discusses how managers combine both rational and non-rational approaches and tools in their decision making processes, especially in international business...... with critical problems on daily basis. As such, they tend to combine experience-based knowledge with intuition and analysis to inform their decisions. Their decision making processes become even more complex when their companies operate within international contexts. It is therefore appropriate to teach...

  7. Decision support for participatory wetland decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosen, H.; Janssen, R.H.H.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Decision support systems can be helpful tools in wetland planning and management. Decision support systems can contribute to efficient exchange of information between experts, stakeholders, decision makers and laypeople. However, the achievements of decision support systems are repeatedly being repo

  8. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change. PMID:18759775

  9. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  10. Strategic erp selection using multicriteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In a growing market that represents more than 21 billion dollars in world’s economy, the Enterprise Resource Planning systems are becoming indispensable for companies of all sizes. Therefore, the companies need to adapt themselves to the market and choose the most adequate system to fit their needs in order to maximize the benefits and minimize the required investments concerning the systems. This paper utilizes Multicriteria Decision Analysis through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process to build a decision model for an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning choice. The model take into account 16 criteria, which are based on the literature review adapted for the needs of the company needs. The systems which were evaluated are provided by three companies that dominate the world market of ERP suppliers.

  11. Energy sector in the Netherlands adapts slowly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One conclusion of reports of consultants Ernst and Young (report 'Trends in Energy 1999') and Andersen consulting (report 'The Energy Sector Unchained') is that energy companies in the Netherlands are not decisive enough to deal successfully with the changes in the liberalized energy market. Quick adaptation in several areas is required to survive in the coming competitive period

  12. Adaptive reuse in Dutch care accommodation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, P.; Remøy, H.T.; van der Voordt, D.J.M.; van der Kuij, R.S.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – Identifying opportunities for adaptive reuse in a changing (increasing market driven) context for Dutch care accommodation. Design/methodology/approach – Combination of two student thesis, both based on case study and decision model development. Findings – Due to new courses in the Dutch

  13. Cost benefit analysis for climate change adaption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Weikard, H.P.; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Ansink, E.J.H.; Bruin, de K.; Rietveld, P.; Bockarjova, M.; Hofkes, M.; Brouwer, R.; Dekker, T.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this programme was on the development of decision making tools based on cost benefit analysis under uncertainty, for analysing adaptation and mitigation options related to spatial planning in the Netherlands. The full programme focused on the methodological issues for cost benefit analy

  14. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  15. Decision support basics

    CERN Document Server

    Power, Daniel J

    2009-01-01

    This book is targeted to busy managers and MBA students who need to grasp the basics of computerized decision support. Some of the topics covered include: What is a DSS? What do managers need to know about computerized decision support? And how can managers identify opportunities to create innovative DSS? Overall the book addresses 35 fundamental questions that are relevant to understanding computerized decision support.

  16. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency. PMID:26909061

  17. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  18. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    . This paper offers an ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision making processes in businesses. The ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ is based on empirical...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk...... evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...

  19. Decision making in specialist forensic psychiatric (the psychological aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmakova E.V.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of a study of psychological factors of decision making amongforensic psychiatric specialists. Given the survey data of10 medical psychologists and 10 psychiatrists carrying out compulsory treatment in the psychiatric hospital №5, Moscow Department of Public Health, in comparison with the control group, consisting of professionals working in the field of education, manufacturing, services and technology. Methodical complex included: 1. The Epstein questionnaire of the intuitive style (adaptation Kornilova T. V., Kornilov S. A.; A new questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty (Kornilova T. V.; Melbourne questionnaire of decision making (adaptation T. V.Kornilova; The questionnaire «Personal factors of decision making»(T.V. Kornilova; TheV. Smecalo and V. M. Kucher method; The Tsvetkova Method; 7. The questionnaire «Styles of thinking» by R. Bramsonand Harrison (adaptation of A. A. Alekseev; 8.The questionnaire «Scale of base convictions» (R.Yanov-Boulemane, adaptation M.A. Padun, A.V. Kotelnikov; 9. The check-list aimed to identify the type of decisions taken by the expert in professional activity, their frequency, importance, subjective evaluation is necessary for decision making qualities and to evaluate the most significant opinions of other persons in the decision-making process. There were defined the characteristics of decision making depending on gender. The relationships between type of activity and frequency of occurrence of different types of decisions in professional activities of specialists were revealed. Analyzed the relationship between consideration of the views of others when making decisions and activity.

  20. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  1. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  2. Improving sustainability through intelligent cargo and adaptive decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalmolen, S.; Cornelisse, E.; Stoter, A.; Hofman, W.J.; Bastiaansen, H.J.M.; Punter, L.M.; Knoors, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the current society, logistics is faced with the challenge to meet more stringent sustainability goals. Shippers and transport service providers both aim to reduce the carbon footprint of their logistic operations. To do so, optimal use of logistics resources and physical infrastructure should be

  3. Decision Making on AUVs for adaptive minehunting surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giodini, S.; Hunter, A.J.; Naus, H.W.L.; Bakker, B.; Bekers, D.J.; Ditzel, M.; Vossen, R. van; Dugelay, S.; Baralli, F.; Beckers, A.L.D.

    2014-01-01

    Minehunting operations can benefit from the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) because these vehicles are able to acquire high-resolution images of the seabed leaving the man out of the minefield. However, because there are severe communication constraints between the AUV and the control p

  4. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Since the middle of the 19th century urban drainage has been a vital infrastructure in cities. Traditionally, urban drainage has been used as a convenient cleaning mechanism for public hygiene and an efficient conveyance facility to tackle floods for life and assets protection. From the early 20th century, the design objectives of urban drainage systems also include elements such as environmental protection and amenity values. Among the objectives, flood protection has received much attention...

  5. A New Kind of Economy is Born - Social Decision-Makers Beat the "Homo Economicus"

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    The Internet and Social Media change our way of decision-making. We are no longer the independent decision makers we used to be. Instead, we have become networked minds, social decision-makers, more than ever before. This has several fundamental implications. First of all, our economic theories must change, and second, our economic institutions must be adapted to support the social decision-maker, the "homo socialis", rather than tailored to the perfect egoist, known as "homo economicus".

  6. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Shared decision making is when health care providers and patients work together to decide ... There many test and treatment options for most health conditions. So your condition may be ... decision making helps you and your provider choose a treatment ...

  7. Difference Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moeller, Jesper; Lichtenberg, Jacob; Andersen, Henrik Reif;

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a new data structure, difference decision diagrams (DDDs), for representing a Boolean logic over inequalities of the form $x-y......This paper describes a new data structure, difference decision diagrams (DDDs), for representing a Boolean logic over inequalities of the form $x-y...

  8. Dual Criteria Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel;

    2014-01-01

    The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...

  9. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  10. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such va

  11. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  12. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  13. Adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Xianqiang; YANG Yuanxi

    2006-01-01

    The key problems in applying the adaptively robust filtering to navigation are to establish an equivalent weight matrix for the measurements and a suitable adaptive factor for balancing the contributions of the measurements and the predicted state information to the state parameter estimates. In this paper, an adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors was proposed, based on the principles of the adaptively robust filtering and bi-factor robust estimation for correlated observations. According to the constant velocity model of Kalman filtering, the state parameter vector was divided into two groups, namely position and velocity. The estimator of the adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors was derived, and the calculation expressions of the classified adaptive factors were presented. Test results show that the adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors is not only robust in controlling the measurement outliers and the kinematic state disturbing but also reasonable in balancing the contributions of the predicted position and velocity, respectively, and its filtering accuracy is superior to the adaptively robust filter with single adaptive factor based on the discrepancy of the predicted position or the predicted velocity.

  14. How brains make decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Yukalov, V I

    2014-01-01

    This chapter, dedicated to the memory of Mino Freund, summarizes the Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) that we have developed in a series of publications since 2008. We formulate a general mathematical scheme of how decisions are taken, using the point of view of psychological and cognitive sciences, without touching physiological aspects. The basic principles of how intelligence acts are discussed. The human brain processes involved in decisions are argued to be principally different from straightforward computer operations. The difference lies in the conscious-subconscious duality of the decision making process and the role of emotions that compete with utility optimization. The most general approach for characterizing the process of decision making, taking into account the conscious-subconscious duality, uses the framework of functional analysis in Hilbert spaces, similarly to that used in the quantum theory of measurements. This does not imply that the brain is a quantum system, but just allows for the simple...

  15. Modulators of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doya, Kenji

    2008-04-01

    Human and animal decisions are modulated by a variety of environmental and intrinsic contexts. Here I consider computational factors that can affect decision making and review anatomical structures and neurochemical systems that are related to contextual modulation of decision making. Expectation of a high reward can motivate a subject to go for an action despite a large cost, a decision that is influenced by dopamine in the anterior cingulate cortex. Uncertainty of action outcomes can promote risk taking and exploratory choices, in which norepinephrine and the orbitofrontal cortex appear to be involved. Predictable environments should facilitate consideration of longer-delayed rewards, which depends on serotonin in the dorsal striatum and dorsal prefrontal cortex. This article aims to sort out factors that affect the process of decision making from the viewpoint of reinforcement learning theory and to bridge between such computational needs and their neurophysiological substrates.

  16. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  17. Robustness and Adaptiveness Analysis of Future Fleets

    CERN Document Server

    Wesolkowski, Slawomir; Whitacre, James M; Bender, Axel; Abbass, Hussein

    2009-01-01

    Making decisions about the structure of a future military fleet is a challenging task. Several issues need to be considered such as the existence of multiple competing objectives and the complexity of the operating environment. A particular challenge is posed by the various types of uncertainty that the future might hold. It is uncertain what future events might be encountered; how fleet design decisions will influence and shape the future; and how present and future decision makers will act based on available information, their personal biases regarding the importance of different objectives, and their economic preferences. In order to assist strategic decision-making, an analysis of future fleet options needs to account for conditions in which these different classes of uncertainty are exposed. It is important to understand what assumptions a particular fleet is robust to, what the fleet can readily adapt to, and what conditions present clear risks to the fleet. We call this the analysis of a fleet's strate...

  18. Adaptive Image Denoising by Mixture Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Enming; Chan, Stanley H; Nguyen, Truong Q

    2016-10-01

    We propose an adaptive learning procedure to learn patch-based image priors for image denoising. The new algorithm, called the expectation-maximization (EM) adaptation, takes a generic prior learned from a generic external database and adapts it to the noisy image to generate a specific prior. Different from existing methods that combine internal and external statistics in ad hoc ways, the proposed algorithm is rigorously derived from a Bayesian hyper-prior perspective. There are two contributions of this paper. First, we provide full derivation of the EM adaptation algorithm and demonstrate methods to improve the computational complexity. Second, in the absence of the latent clean image, we show how EM adaptation can be modified based on pre-filtering. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptation algorithm yields consistently better denoising results than the one without adaptation and is superior to several state-of-the-art algorithms. PMID:27416593

  19. Real-Time Co-Operative Decision Making & Control Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Vlacic, Ljubo; Thomas, Daniel; Pérez Rastelli, Joshué

    2011-01-01

    International audience Learning and adaptability (and thus the ability of being co-operative) are important features of decision & control systems. This paper investigates decision making and control concepts that enable human beings and artificial beings to interact and co-operate in real time in a dynamic and reliable way. It examines the aspects of being co-operative and substitutable in the context of: (i) co-operative driving by driverless vehicles; and (ii) computer game play scenari...

  20. SLA Establishment Decisions: Minimizing the Risk of SLA Violations

    OpenAIRE

    Michalk, Wibke Anna

    2011-01-01

    This thesis presents an approach for service providers to select an SLA portfolio that minimizes the SLA violation risk. It considers constraints on expected profit and available resources. The problem is addressed by applying decision theory and risk measures, especially by adapting the concept of portfolio selection by Harry Markowitz and the semi-variance. In order to capture a decision maker's attitude towards risk, utility theory and the concept of risk aversion are used.

  1. Decision rules and group rationality: cognitive gain or standstill?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru Lucian Curşeu

    Full Text Available Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group, and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.

  2. Collective decision making in bacterial viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O

    2008-09-15

    For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.

  3. Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

    2014-02-01

    Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

  4. Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

  5. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  6. Emotion and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-01

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  7. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  8. Organizational Decision Making: The Luhmannian Decision Communication Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Mykkänen, Markus; Tampere, Kaja

    2014-01-01

    Studies of organizational communication around decision-making and decision communication have largely concerned how decisions should be made and promoted. Less efforts have focused on how decisions should be communicated inside organizations and how they influence organizational effectiveness and performance. This study examined decision communication in an engineer-based organization 2008–2009. Key findings demonstrate that effective decision communication can be considered as the backbone ...

  9. Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1998-01-01

    To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

  10. Case Base Mining for Adaptation Knowledge Acquisition

    CERN Document Server

    D'Aquin, Mathieu; Lafrogne, Sandrine; Lieber, Jean; Napoli, Amedeo; Szathmary, Laszlo

    2007-01-01

    In case-based reasoning, the adaptation of a source case in order to solve the target problem is at the same time crucial and difficult to implement. The reason for this difficulty is that, in general, adaptation strongly depends on domain-dependent knowledge. This fact motivates research on adaptation knowledge acquisition (AKA). This paper presents an approach to AKA based on the principles and techniques of knowledge discovery from databases and data-mining. It is implemented in CABAMAKA, a system that explores the variations within the case base to elicit adaptation knowledge. This system has been successfully tested in an application of case-based reasoning to decision support in the domain of breast cancer treatment.

  11. Medicare Appeals Council Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions of the Departmental Appeals Board's Medicare Appeals Council involving claims for entitlement to Medicare and individual claims for Medicare coverage and...

  12. Anthropic decision theory

    CERN Document Server

    Armstrong, Stuart

    2011-01-01

    This paper sets out to solve the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. Given certain simple assumptions, it turns out to be possible to do so without knowing the underlying anthropic probabilities. Most common anthropic problems are underspecified from the decision perspective, and this can explain some of the differing intuitions in the subject: selfless and selfish agents, total and average utilitarians, will all reach different decisions in the same problem. These results are formalised into an anthropic decision theory, that is them used to solve many anthropic problems and paradoxes, such as the Presumptuous Philosopher, Adam and Eve, and Doomsday problems.

  13. Making Decisions about Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... decision later. What has been the experience of friends and people you trust? Learning about other people’s ... paid by the company. Consider how that might influence their ability to provide unbiased information. There are ...

  14. Departmental Appeals Board Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions issued by the Chair and Board Members of the Departmental Appeals Board concerning determinations in discretionary, project grant programs, including...

  15. Adaptive Modular Playware

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik Hautop; Þorsteinsson, Arnar Tumi

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the concept of adaptive modular playware, where the playware adapts to the interaction of the individual user. We hypothesize that there are individual differences in user interaction capabilities and styles, and that adaptive playware may adapt to the individual user’s...

  16. Consumer decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Torben

    2003-01-01

    In the consumer behaviour literature several perspectives on consumer decision making have been considered, including the ‘value perspective’, the ‘information processing perspective’, the ‘emotional perspective’, and ‘cue utilization theory’. In this paper, a framework which integrates several perspectives on consumer decision making and which hypothesizes possible links between several basic constructs is developed. The framework is tested by the use of two experimental desig...

  17. Geometric Decision Tree

    CERN Document Server

    Manwani, Naresh

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present a new algorithm for learning oblique decision trees. Most of the current decision tree algorithms rely on impurity measures to assess the goodness of hyperplanes at each node while learning a decision tree in a top-down fashion. These impurity measures do not properly capture the geometric structures in the data. Motivated by this, our algorithm uses a strategy to assess the hyperplanes in such a way that the geometric structure in the data is taken into account. At each node of the decision tree, we find the clustering hyperplanes for both the classes and use their angle bisectors as the split rule at that node. We show through empirical studies that this idea leads to small decision trees and better performance. We also present some analysis to show that the angle bisectors of clustering hyperplanes that we use as the split rules at each node, are solutions of an interesting optimization problem and hence argue that this is a principled method of learning a decision tree.

  18. Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  19. Decision table languages and systems

    CERN Document Server

    Metzner, John R

    1977-01-01

    ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im

  20. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  1. How to Represent Adaptation in e-Learning with IMS Learning Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgos, Daniel; Tattersall, Colin; Koper, Rob

    2007-01-01

    Adaptation in e-learning has been an important research topic for the last few decades in computer-based education. In adaptivity the behaviour of the user triggers some actions in the system that guides the learning process. In adaptability, the user makes changes and takes decisions. Progressing from computer-based training and adaptive…

  2. Q-Learning: A Data Analysis Method for Constructing Adaptive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Qian, Min; Almirall, Daniel; Pelham, William E.; Gnagy, Beth; Fabiano, Gregory A.; Waxmonsky, James G.; Yu, Jihnhee; Murphy, Susan A.

    2012-01-01

    Increasing interest in individualizing and adapting intervention services over time has led to the development of adaptive interventions. Adaptive interventions operationalize the individualization of a sequence of intervention options over time via the use of decision rules that input participant information and output intervention…

  3. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

  4. Neural FIR adaptive Laguerre equalizer with a gradient adaptive amplitude for nonlinear channel in communication systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO HaiQuan; ZHANG JiaShu

    2009-01-01

    To mitigate the linear and nonlinear distortions in communication systems, two novel nonlinear adaptive equalizers are proposed on the basis of the neural finite impulse response (FIR) filter, decision feedback architecture and the characteristic of the Laguerre filter. They are neural FIR adaptive decision feedback equalizer (SNNDFE) and neural FIR adaptive Laguerre equalizer (LSNN). Of these two equalizers, the latter is simple and with characteristics of both infinite impulse response (IIR) and FIR filters; it can use shorter memory length to obtain better performance. As confirmed by theoretical analysis, the novel LSNN equalizer is stable (0<α<1). Furthermore, simulation results show that the SNNDFE can get better equalized performance than SNN equalizer, while the latter exhibits better performance than others in terms of convergence speed, mean square error (MSE) and bit error rate (BER). Therefore, it can reduce the input dimension and eliminate linear and nonlinear interference effectively. In addition, it is very suitable for hardware implementation due to its simple structure.

  5. Translating climate data for business decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, N.

    2015-12-01

    Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.

  6. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.;

    2013-01-01

    scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making...... at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining...

  7. A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pais, Darren; Hogan, Patrick M; Schlegel, Thomas; Franks, Nigel R; Leonard, Naomi E; Marshall, James A R

    2013-01-01

    We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

  8. A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Pais

    Full Text Available We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

  9. Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne

    2015-01-01

    and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues...... that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation......Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development...

  10. Decisions and desire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them. PMID:16447368

  11. Decisions and desire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

  12. Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2014-09-13

    The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

  13. Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ule

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

  14. Reconsidering information management roles and capabilities in disaster response decision-making units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment

  15. Bayes Multiple Decision Functions

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Wensong

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach for this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for the use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow in this paper a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through...

  16. Intuitive numbers guide decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen Peters

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a perceived differences between numbers, b the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.

  17. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  18. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  19. Adaptive Modeling for Security Infrastructure Fault Response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Zhong-jie; YAO Shu-ping; HU Chang-zhen

    2008-01-01

    Based on the analysis of inherent limitations in existing security response decision-making systems, a dynamic adaptive model of fault response is presented. Several security fault levels were founded, which comprise the basic level, equipment level and mechanism level. Fault damage cost is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Meanwhile, the model evaluates the impact of different responses upon fault repair and normal operation. Response operation cost and response negative cost are introduced through quantitative calculation. This model adopts a comprehensive response decision of security fault in three principles-the maximum and minimum principle, timeliness principle, acquiescence principle, which assure optimal response countermeasure is selected for different situations. Experimental results show that the proposed model has good self-adaptation ability, timeliness and cost-sensitiveness.

  20. ROLE OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING IN DECISIONS ON MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Khomutetskaya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the introduction of management accounting in the work of organizations (enterprises that will improve the efficiency of administrative decisions will contribute to the flexibility and adaptability of the organization to changes in the external environment, increased productivity and efficient use of all resources of the organization.

  1. Memory Dynamics and Decision Making in Younger and Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…

  2. Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Aidan

    2013-01-01

    The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

  3. Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

    2015-09-01

    Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'. PMID:25498234

  4. Evolutionary Perspective on Collective Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Dene; Sayama, Hiroki; Dionne, Shelley D.; Yammarino, Francis J.; Wilson, David Sloan

    Team decision making dynamics are investigated from a novel perspective by shifting agency from decision makers to representations of potential solutions. We provide a new way to navigate social dynamics of collective decision making by interpreting decision makers as constituents of an evolutionary environment of an ecology of evolving solutions. We demonstrate distinct patterns of evolution with respect to three forms of variation: (1) Results with random variations in utility functions of individuals indicate that groups demonstrating minimal internal variation produce higher true utility values of group solutions and display better convergence; (2) analysis of variations in behavioral patterns within a group shows that a proper balance between selective and creative evolutionary forces is crucial to producing adaptive solutions; and (3) biased variations of the utility functions diminish the range of variation for potential solution utility, leaving only the differential of convergence performance static. We generally find that group cohesion (low random variation within a group) and composition (appropriate variation of behavioral patterns within a group) are necessary for a successful navigation of the solution space, but performance in both cases is susceptible to group level biases.

  5. Decision Support for Radiologists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fatehi

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction & Background: Radiology practice like any other discipline in medicine consists of professional problem solving. A practicing radiologist may face different kinds of problems from pathology finding in im-age, suggestion of appropriate workup in a specific situation, formulating relevant differential diagnosis list for comparison with normal variants and artifacts. When a radiologist has the opportunity to use a computer he/she will also be able to use digital material/technology to solve these problems and make sound decisions. The available methods/materials for digital decision support in radiology may be categorized as follow: A. Image Processing When a radiological image is captured or converted to digital format, techniques like edge enhancement and contrast change may improve the diagnostic value of an image and help in decision making. B. Computer-aided Detection Thoracic imaging and mammography are two fields with promising advances in computer-aided diagnosis (CAD. The ultimate role of CAD is as a second opinion besides radiologists own perception. It is obvious how-ever that when available, CAD may decrease detection errors in radiology practice. C. Decision Support Databases Image Banks: An electronic atlas may be used to compare patients’ image to a predefined classified set of im-ages in order to help radiologist in pattern recognition. This may also be used for anatomic details and variants. Knowledge Bases: A digital differential diagnosis table or algorithmic approach to a specific problem may be helpful in reading room. Digital Textbooks: Classical radiological textbooks may be used in routine practice to remember some definitions, lists or hints, When available, digital version of textbooks are invaluable decision aids. D. Internet resources Online resources can be easily updated, widely used by different users, uniformly applied by different radiolo-gists. Although digital decision support materials and

  6. An Exploratory Study of Academic Library Users' Decision-Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    Wan-Ching Wu; Muh-Chyun Tang

    2009-01-01

    The paper reported results from a user survey study conducted in an academic library setting that aimed at investigating readers' borrowing decision making process. The research is motivated by adaptive decision making theory and Len's Model in cognitive psychology. Specifically, the research sets out the explore readers' reliance on various information sources when facing different search situations. The results show that readers adaptively make use of information sources in their immediate ...

  7. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep;

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Colloquial evidence (CE) has been described as the informal evidence that helps provide context to other forms of evidence in guidance development. Despite challenges around quality, and the potential biases, the use of CE is becoming increasingly important in assessments where...... from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  8. Games and Platform Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan

    2007-01-01

    be described as being a configuration problem with a high number of variables. These variables are different in nature; they have contradictory influence on the total performance, and, their importance change over time. Consequently, the specific platform decisions become highly complex and the consequences...... support to the platform decision making.......Platform is an ambiguous multidisciplinary concept. The philosophy behind it is easy to communicate and makes intuitively sense. However, the ease in communication does overshadow the high complexity when the concept is implemented. The practical industrial platform implementation challenge can...

  9. Ethical factors influencing decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ethics are determined by weighing risks against benefits, pros against cons, but also by evasion. Whenever decisions are taken, the side effects and risks to be accepted must be weighed. In law, this is called the principle of commensurability implying that ethical compromises are made. Too much emphasis on ethical principles leads to an evasion of realistic action. In consensus discussions it is often seen that the positions adopted by science and technology are incommensurable with those of philosophy, psychology, and theology. Any decision requires that the risk be evaluated in a spirit of responsibility. (orig.)

  10. Learning Probabilistic Decision Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Dalgaard, Jens; Silander, Tomi

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic decision graphs (PDGs) are a representation language for probability distributions based on binary decision diagrams. PDGs can encode (context-specific) independence relations that cannot be captured in a Bayesian network structure, and can sometimes provide computationally more...... efficient representations than Bayesian networks. In this paper we present an algorithm for learning PDGs from data. First experiments show that the algorithm is capable of learning optimal PDG representations in some cases, and that the computational efficiency of PDG models learned from real-life data...

  11. Oil industry decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that the oil and gas business is undergoing a significant restructuring. In order to maintain control of our own destiny and succeed in an increasingly competitive business environment, the industry must set goals which are consistent with its continued success and focus on those goals in every aspect of its strategic management. By applying an approach to decision making which focuses on the achievement of the key goals required for success at every decision point and systematic follow-up, a firm can greatly increase its ability to succeed in the business environment of the future

  12. Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spittlehouse, D.L. [British Columbia Ministry of Forestry, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2005-10-01

    Although forest management decisions are often based on the assumption that the climate will remain relatively stable throughout a forest's life-time, the prospect of future climate change has challenged current decision-making processes. This paper reviewed challenges currently impeding responses to climate change and presented suggestions for integrating adaptation strategies into forest management. Adaptive actions reduce the risks of climate change by preparing for adverse effects and capitalizing on the benefits. However, the importance of forest ecosystems to society means that the direction and timing of adaptation should be carefully managed. Uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of future climate change is a significant challenge. In addition, different ecosystems are vulnerable to different aspects of change, and an important component of adaptation will be the balancing of different values. The size of the forested land base in most of Canada will mean that much of the forest will have to adjust to climatic changes without human intervention. Seed planning zones, reforestation standards and hydrologic and wildlife management guidelines are designed for the current climate regime, and there are currently no regulatory requirements for adaptation strategies. Societal adaptation will be a major component of any forest management adaptation strategy, and demands on forest resources will need to be revised. Adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of resources such as water quality and quantity and biological conservation will become high priorities in some areas. It was suggested that the adaptation of culverts, bridges and roads should be incorporated into an infrastructure replacement cycle. Areas for preservation where the future climate will become suitable for species whose current range is threatened by climate change should be identified. Adapting the forest through reforestation after disturbances such as harvest or fire was recommended. Other

  13. Algorithms for optimal dyadic decision trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hush, Don [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Porter, Reid [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    A new algorithm for constructing optimal dyadic decision trees was recently introduced, analyzed, and shown to be very effective for low dimensional data sets. This paper enhances and extends this algorithm by: introducing an adaptive grid search for the regularization parameter that guarantees optimal solutions for all relevant trees sizes, revising the core tree-building algorithm so that its run time is substantially smaller for most regularization parameter values on the grid, and incorporating new data structures and data pre-processing steps that provide significant run time enhancement in practice.

  14. Principles of adaptive optics

    CERN Document Server

    Tyson, Robert

    2010-01-01

    History and BackgroundIntroductionHistoryPhysical OpticsTerms in Adaptive OpticsSources of AberrationsAtmospheric TurbulenceThermal BloomingNonatmospheric SourcesAdaptive Optics CompensationPhase ConjugationLimitations of Phase ConjugationArtificial Guide StarsLasers for Guide StarsCombining the LimitationsLinear AnalysisPartial Phase ConjugationAdaptive Optics SystemsAdaptive Optics Imaging SystemsBeam Propagation Syst

  15. The Bilingual Advertising Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grin, Francois

    1994-01-01

    Examines the relationship between linguistic plurality and the rationale of advertising decisions. The article presents a simple model of sales to different language groups as a function of the level of advertising in each language, language attitudes, incomes, and an advertising response function. The model is intended as a benchmark, and several…

  16. Responsive Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence...

  17. Matriarchal Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Linda Sue

    In contrast to European cultures, many American Indian societies have been matriarchal. Indian women have had a great deal of power, both as individuals and as groups, and have held various leadership roles within their tribes. Traditionally, Indian women have worked in partnership with men, and decision-making has been related to consensus…

  18. The decision evaluation scales.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stalmeier, P.F.M.; Roosmalen, M.S van; Verhoef, L.C.G.; Hoekstra-Weebers, J.E.; Oosterwijk-Wakka, J.C.; Moog, U.; Hoogerbrugge-van der Linden, N.; Daal, W.A.J. van

    2005-01-01

    There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,

  19. The decision evaluation scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stalmeier, PFM; Roosmalen, MS; Verhoef, LCG; Hoekstra-Weebers, JEHM; Oosterwijk, JC; Moog, U; Hoogerbrugge, N; van Daal, WAJ

    2005-01-01

    There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,

  20. Facilitating Decisions under Scarcity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, Stefan D.

    1993-01-01

    This article proposes a conceptual decision-making framework for college and university offices of institutional research during times when budgetary retrenchment and reallocation of resources is necessary. Key issues the office should consider include understanding the institution's purpose, strategy selection, evaluation activities, student…

  1. Decisions Based on Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Vincent; Lofstrom, Jocelyn; Jerome, Brian

    This guide makes the case for a decision-making focus in the science curriculum as a response to concern over preparing scientifically literate students. The student activities are organized by guided activities and independent exercises. Themes of the guided activities include xenotransplants, immunizations, household cleaning products, ozone,…

  2. Arguing to motivate decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Weide, T.L.

    2011-01-01

    Decision makers often have to make difficult trade-offs in situations where multiple aspects matter that are different by nature. For example, in a crisis scenario with a big fire in a factory, trade-offs may have to be made between the safety of the victims and personnel, and the effects on the env

  3. Making Good Tenure Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Samuel L.; Galvin, Kathleen M.; Houston, Marsha; Friedrich, Gustav W.; Pearson, Judy C.; Seiler, William J.; Trent, Judith S.

    2001-01-01

    Presents criteria and procedures that can help to substantially increase the probability of a good tenure decision. Notes that the tenure procedures must be designed and followed in a way that ensures, to the degree possible, validity, fairness, and equity. Stresses the importance of maintaining good records and mentoring. (SG)

  4. Equational binary decision diagrams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groote, J.F.; Pol, J.C. van de

    2000-01-01

    We incorporate equations in binary decision diagrams (BDD). The resulting objects are called EQ-BDDs. A straightforward notion of ordered EQ-BDDs (EQ-OBDD) is defined, and it is proved that each EQ-BDD is logically equivalent to an EQ-OBDD. Moreover, on EQ-OBDDs satisfiability and tautology checkin

  5. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten G Volz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

  6. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  7. Using Uncertain Climate and Development Information in Health Adaptation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Hess, Jeremy J; Isaksen, Tania Busch

    2016-03-01

    To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

  8. Dynamic data-driven sensor network adaptation for border control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bein, Doina; Madan, Bharat B.; Phoha, Shashi; Rajtmajer, Sarah; Rish, Anna

    2013-06-01

    Given a specific scenario for the border control problem, we propose a dynamic data-driven adaptation of the associated sensor network via embedded software agents which make sensor network control, adaptation and collaboration decisions based on the contextual information value of competing data provided by different multi-modal sensors. We further propose the use of influence diagrams to guide data-driven decision making in selecting the appropriate action or course of actions which maximize a given utility function by designing a sensor embedded software agent that uses an influence diagram to make decisions about whether to engage or not engage higher level sensors for accurately detecting human presence in the region. The overarching goal of the sensor system is to increase the probability of target detection and classification and reduce the rate of false alarms. The proposed decision support software agent is validated experimentally on a laboratory testbed for multiple border control scenarios.

  9. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  10. Shared clinical decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990

  11. Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored...... through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied...

  12. Type of learning task impacts performance and strategy selection in decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Pachur, Thorsten; Olsson, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    In order to be adaptive, cognition requires knowledge about the statistical structure of the environment. We show that decision performance and the selection between cue-based and exemplarbased inference mechanisms can depend critically on how this knowledge is acquired. Two types of learning tasks are distinguished: learning by comparison, by which the decision maker learns which of two objects has a higher criterion value, and direct criterion learning, by which the decision maker learns an...

  13. INTELLIGENT ADAPTIVE LEARNING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Valentis

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to develop ever more intelligent and autonomous systems, it is necessary to make them self-learning, since it is impossible to include in their program everything they may encounter during their life-cycle. In this research work, we aim at answering the following: if a system’s environment is modified, how could the system respond to it quickly and appropriately enough? We achieve it by using reinforcement learning to allow the system to rate its decisions, then by developing adaptive learning algorithms for gain and loss rewards. The algorithms include probabilities’ analysis providing to the system ability to adapt its knowledge through time and to respond to a changing environment. Simulations are made for a robot finding its exit in a labyrinth. Results show that reinforcement and adaptive learnings can have many useful applications by offering to a system a reliable possibility of evolution within complex environments in specific situations.

  14. Intervention Mapping to Adapt Evidence-Based Interventions for Use in Practice: Increasing Mammography among African American Women

    OpenAIRE

    Linda Highfield; Marieke A. Hartman; Patricia Dolan Mullen; Rodriguez, Serena A.; Fernandez, Maria E.; L. Kay Bartholomew

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the use of the systematic planning process, Intervention Mapping, to adapt an evidence-based public health intervention (EBI). We used a simplified version of Intervention Mapping (IM Adapt) to increase an intervention’s fit with a new setting and population. IM Adapt guides researchers and practitioners in selecting an EBI, making decisions about whether and what to adapt, and executing the adaptation while guarding the EBI’s essential elements (those re...

  15. Decision support tools : midterm review report Knowledge for Climate Theme 8

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.

    2012-01-01

    The KfC program Decision Support Tools aims at improving tools for design and evaluation of adaptation strategies with a special focus on spatial planning and cross cutting issues. The program focuses on three core elements 1. tools for formulation of the adaptation task, based on climate scenarios

  16. The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

    2015-05-01

    Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization.

  17. Decision story strategy: a practical approach for teaching decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D L; Hamrick, M H; Anspaugh, D J

    1981-12-01

    Teachers are usually very enthusiastic in their evaluations of decision stories. Decision Story Strategies offer a change of pace, promote student involvement and stimulate creative thinking, problem solving and everpresent creative teaching-learning opportunities. The real-life problems presented within the structure of a decision story provide meaningful learning opportunities for students. Students begin to think in a broader perspective when considering other points of view and information sources. The Decision Story Strategy used with the Decision-Making Model provides a powerful tool for health educators to develop skills for making and evaluating decisions in an interesting and meaningful context. It may not be a panacea for all health educators, but is an effective strategy for the teacher concerned with developing independent decision makers. Most importantly, students are provided opportunities to solve their present problems as well as develop decision-making skills for the future. PMID:6916032

  18. Decision support on demand: Emerging electronic markets for decision technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Hemant K. Bhargava; Krishnan, Ramayya; Muller, Rudolf

    1997-01-01

    For the individual or organization wishing to employ a scientific approach in solving decision problems, there is a plethora of relevant concepts, methods, models, and software. Yet, relative to their potential or to peer software such as database technologies, decision technologies are little used in real-world decision making. We argue that at least some of the problems that restrict the use of decision technologies are rooted in the use of conventional market mechanisms to distrib...

  19. Adaptive building envelopes, component development as well as implementation strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Tillmann Klein; Ulrich Knaack

    2015-01-01

    The papers in this issue of JFDE discuss the potential of adaptive building envelopes, component development as well as implementation strategies. The applied practice paper demonstrates decision strategies behind the adaptive sun shading system of the Al-Bahr Towers. Additivity in building envelopes is not only a strategy to fulfil the growing demands for energy efficient buildings and comfort but has great architectural implications as well. In general it asks for more complex components as...

  20. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... depends to a high degree on subjective preferences stated by the decision-makers as the methodology deals with impacts (or criteria) that are difficult to quantify or assign with a monetary value. As a result of this an examination process is proposed that can guide the decision-makers through...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  1. Communicating climate information: travelling through the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This paper explores the nature and consequences of a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts, and b)changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analysing the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e. climate models and data), climate- change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesised in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample information on uncertainty is under-represented: e.g. studies focus on only one scenario, and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. A better training of climatologists to communication issues, but also a training to climatology for decision makers are required, as well as more cautious and robust adaptation strategies, accounting for the uncertainty inherent to climate projections. (authors)

  2. Decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L.N.; Noe, E.; Langvad, A.M.;

    2007-01-01

    system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required......The highly complex knowledge of scientific disciplines makes nuanced analysis and modelling possible. However, the information produced often does not reach farmers because it is presented in a way that does not correspond to the way their work is carried out in practice. The decision support...

  3. Decision Strategy Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardeman, F

    2001-04-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is: (1) to study the decision-making process in a nuclear context with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness; (2) to disseminate knowledge on nuclear emergency preparedness including courses in the field of off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents; (3) to co-ordinate efforts within SCK-CEN in the field of medical applications of radiation; (4) to support projects and reflexion groups related to interdisciplinary research on the no-technical aspects of radiation protection or nuclear apllications; (5) to give advice and support to authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available. Main focus of the programme is on the surveillance of the territory and emergency preparedness. Principal achievements in 2000 are described.

  4. Decision Strategy Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is: (1) to study the decision-making process in a nuclear context with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness; (2) to disseminate knowledge on nuclear emergency preparedness including courses in the field of off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents; (3) to co-ordinate efforts within SCK-CEN in the field of medical applications of radiation; (4) to support projects and reflexion groups related to interdisciplinary research on the no-technical aspects of radiation protection or nuclear apllications; (5) to give advice and support to authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available. Main focus of the programme is on the surveillance of the territory and emergency preparedness. Principal achievements in 2000 are described

  5. Crisis Decision Theory: Decisions in the Face of Negative Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Kate

    2008-01-01

    How do people respond to negative life events? Crisis decision theory combines the strengths of coping theories with research on decision making to predict the responses people choose under negative circumstances. The theory integrates literatures on coping, health behavior, and decision making, among others, into 3 stages that describe the…

  6. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  7. Automatic food decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone

    Consumers' food decisions are to a large extent shaped by automatic processes, which are either internally directed through learned habits and routines or externally influenced by context factors and visual information triggers. Innovative research methods such as eye tracking, choice experiments...... and food diaries allow us to better understand the impact of unconscious processes on consumers' food choices. Simone Mueller Loose will provide an overview of recent research insights into the effects of habit and context on consumers' food choices....

  8. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  9. Institutions and offshoring decision

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolini, Marcella

    2007-01-01

    Several papers have proven that the institutional environment of the receiving country can influence the choice to establish an FDI. Property rights theory suggests that contract enforcement matters differentially across sectors. This paper is the first attempt to test whether institutions matter differentially across different sectors in FDI decision. Using data on U.S. Direct Investment Abroad, I find that institutional characteristics of the country and the industry positively affect the v...

  10. The Participation Decision Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Y. Ficaj

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The 2011 participation decision study involved exploration into the impact of the external education environment on the decision for private school participation in Federal funding, one deliberately declining player in the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001(NCLB choice and competition equation. In the qualitative collective case, three religiously triangulated Michigan private school decision-makers submitted to semi-structured interviews. Analysis of the external environmental factors was through the lens of Gould and Eldredge’s (1977 environmentally oriented theory, punctuated equilibria philosophy of change. Analysis involved layering, direct interpretation, categorical aggregation, and cross-comparison of two external environmental categories identified at literature review (NCLB-content and privatization-dynamic with numerous major and sub-groupings and space for newly emergent material. The category privatization-dynamics emerged as significant influence, as did the major theme trust and the sub-themes motivational intent, competency, consistency, grapevine, creativity or inspiration, restrictions on curriculum, lack of awareness of opportunities available, and fear of failure. The study included five specific recommendations for leaders of change to explain, predict, and improve organizational performance toward greater synchronization in operation of the NCLB choice and competition mechanisms.

  11. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementation are manifold and include semantic confusion, institutional inertia, misperceptions about the suitability and utility, and a lack of guiding examples. In this special section of the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, we hope to reinvigorate the appropriate application of adaptive management for threatened and endangered species by framing such management in a decision-analytical context, clarifying misperceptions, classifying the types of decisions that might be amenable to an adaptive approach, and providing three fully developed case studies. In this overview paper, I define terms, review the past application of adaptive management, challenge perceived hurdles, and set the stage for the case studies which follow.

  12. Understanding marketing decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractWhile a whole range of factors influences the outcomes of a marketing policy, it is managerial decision-making that can really make a difference. A clearer understanding of how marketers make decisions should therefore improve their quality.

  13. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  14. Bayes multiple decision functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wensong; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. Such problems arise in many practical areas such as the biological and medical sciences, where the available dataset is from microarrays or other high-throughput technology and with the goal being to decide which among of many genes are relevant with respect to some phenotype of interest; in the engineering and reliability sciences; in astronomy; in education; and in business. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the quality of decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through a class of frailty-induced Archimedean copulas. In particular, non-Gaussian dependent data structure, which is typical with failure-time data, can be entertained. The numerical implementation of the determination of the Bayes optimal action is facilitated through sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The theory developed could also be extended to the problem of multiple hypotheses testing, multiple classification and prediction, and high-dimensional variable selection. The proposed procedure is illustrated for the simple versus simple hypotheses setting and for the composite hypotheses setting

  15. Emotions, Mood and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Agnes Virlics

    2014-01-01

    Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...

  16. Adaptive aspirations and performance heterogeneity : Attention allocation among multiple reference points

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blettner, D.P.; He, Z.; Hu, S.; Bettis, R.

    2015-01-01

    Organizations learn and adapt their aspiration levels based on reference points (prior aspiration, prior performance, and prior performance of reference groups). The relative attention that organizations allocate to these reference points impacts organizational search and strategic decisions. Howeve

  17. Linguistic decision making for robot route learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hongmei; McGinnity, Thomas Martin; Coleman, Sonya; Gardiner, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Machine learning enables the creation of a nonlinear mapping that describes robot-environment interaction, whereas computing linguistics make the interaction transparent. In this paper, we develop a novel application of a linguistic decision tree for a robot route learning problem by dynamically deciding the robot's behavior, which is decomposed into atomic actions in the context of a specified task. We examine the real-time performance of training and control of a linguistic decision tree, and explore the possibility of training a machine learning model in an adaptive system without dual CPUs for parallelization of training and control. A quantified evaluation approach is proposed, and a score is defined for the evaluation of a model's robustness regarding the quality of training data. Compared with the nonlinear system identification nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with eXogeneous inputs model structure with offline parameter estimation, the linguistic decision tree model with online linguistic ID3 learning achieves much better performance, robustness, and reliability.

  18. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process. PMID:27503819

  19. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

  20. Minimum description length criterion based decision tree dynamic pruning method in speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Xianghua; HE lin

    2006-01-01

    In phonetic decision tree based state tying, decision trees with varying leaf nodes denote models with different complexity. By studying the influence of model complexity on system performance and speaker adaptation, a decision tree dynamic pruning method based on Minimum Description Length (MDL) criterion is presented. In the method, a well-trained,large-sized phonetic decision tree is selected as an initial model set, and model complexity is computed by adding a penalty parameter which alters according to the amount of adaptation data. Largely attributed to the reasonable selection of initial models and the integration of stochastic and aptotic of MDL criterion, the proposed method gains high performance by combining with speaker adaptation.

  1. Technology transfer for adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagini, Bonizella; Kuhl, Laura; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Ortiz, Claudia

    2014-09-01

    Technology alone will not be able to solve adaptation challenges, but it is likely to play an important role. As a result of the role of technology in adaptation and the importance of international collaboration for climate change, technology transfer for adaptation is a critical but understudied issue. Through an analysis of Global Environment Facility-managed adaptation projects, we find there is significantly more technology transfer occurring in adaptation projects than might be expected given the pessimistic rhetoric surrounding technology transfer for adaptation. Most projects focused on demonstration and early deployment/niche formation for existing technologies rather than earlier stages of innovation, which is understandable considering the pilot nature of the projects. Key challenges for the transfer process, including technology selection and appropriateness under climate change, markets and access to technology, and diffusion strategies are discussed in more detail.

  2. Diffusion Adaptation over Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sayed, Ali H

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive networks are well-suited to perform decentralized information processing and optimization tasks and to model various types of self organized and complex behavior encountered in nature. Adaptive networks consist of a collection of agents with processing and learning abilities. The agents are linked together through a connection topology, and they cooperate with each other through local interactions to solve distributed inference problems in real-time. The continuous diffusion of information across the network enables agents to adapt their performance in relation to changing data and network conditions; it also results in improved adaptation and learning performance relative to non-cooperative networks. This article provides an overview of diffusion strategies for adaptation and learning over networks. The article is divided into several sections: 1. Motivation; 2. Mean-Square-Error Estimation; 3. Distributed Optimization via Diffusion Strategies; 4. Adaptive Diffusion Strategies; 5. Performance of Ste...

  3. Origins of adaptive immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity.

  4. Decision making in matters of pollution in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making in matters of pollution, although taking place in a hierarchically determined institutional setting, can be interpreted as the result of a conflictual process between the different groups involved. 1. The statutory setting: coherence of laws and adaptability of norms; a hierarchical, pyramidal, formal structure; relative autonomy and flexibility of local decision making: possibility of developing local organizations for the control of pollution. 2. The conflictual process: Within the institutional setting, decision making is the result of interaction between: the state and the authorities, who make the rules and possess the formal power; industry, which has the economic power and is the arbiter of technical feasibility; the public, who are guardians of social values and judges of the acceptability of final decisions; the experts, who possess the scientific knowledge on which decisions are based. The relative weights of these different interests in decision making are linked with the existence of today's society of communication which increases the importance of communicators and especially the media. Conclusion: decision making in questions of environmental risk and pollution necessarily consists in taking into account all the interests involved in order to arrive at a solution acceptable to the public. The interests of society are not necessarily compatible with technical or scientific logic. (author)

  5. Neural and neurochemical basis of reinforcement-guided decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khani, Abbas; Rainer, Gregor

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is an adaptive behavior that takes into account several internal and external input variables and leads to the choice of a course of action over other available and often competing alternatives. While it has been studied in diverse fields ranging from mathematics, economics, ecology, and ethology to psychology and neuroscience, recent cross talk among perspectives from different fields has yielded novel descriptions of decision processes. Reinforcement-guided decision making models are based on economic and reinforcement learning theories, and their focus is on the maximization of acquired benefit over a defined period of time. Studies based on reinforcement-guided decision making have implicated a large network of neural circuits across the brain. This network includes a wide range of cortical (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) and subcortical (e.g., nucleus accumbens and subthalamic nucleus) brain areas and uses several neurotransmitter systems (e.g., dopaminergic and serotonergic systems) to communicate and process decision-related information. This review discusses distinct as well as overlapping contributions of these networks and neurotransmitter systems to the processing of decision making. We end the review by touching on neural circuitry and neuromodulatory regulation of exploratory decision making.

  6. The Adaptive Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Hallin, Carina Antonia

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary organizations operate under turbulent business conditions and must adapt their strategies to ongoing changes. This article argues that sustainable organizational performance is achieved when top management directs and coordinates interactive processes anchored in emerging organizatio......Contemporary organizations operate under turbulent business conditions and must adapt their strategies to ongoing changes. This article argues that sustainable organizational performance is achieved when top management directs and coordinates interactive processes anchored in emerging...... the adaptive organization....

  7. Human Adaptations: Free divers

    OpenAIRE

    Tournat, Troy Z.

    2014-01-01

    Freediving has been around for thousands of years and was only way to dive until the inventionof oxygen tanks in the 19th century. Around the world, people dove for goods such as pearls, andtoday people freedive for sport. Divers stretch the limit of their body and mind’s capabilitiesthrough psychological adaptations from thermal, respiratory, and cardiovascular responses.Findings conclude that thermal adaptations are a similar process to cold adaptive response. Withthe implementation of wets...

  8. Consciousness And Adaptive Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Sieb, Richard/A.

    2005-01-01

    Consciousness has resisted scientific explanation for centuries. The main problem in explaining consciousness is its subjectivity. Subjective systems may be adaptive. Humans can produce voluntary new or novel intentional (adaptive) action and such action is always accompanied by consciousness. Action normally arises from perception. Perception must be rerepresented in order to produce new or novel adaptive action. The internal explicit states produced by a widespread nonlinear emergen...

  9. Quantifying the adaptive cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

    2015-01-01

    The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

  10. Adaptive Wireless Transceiver Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Wireless technologies are an increasingly attractive means for spatial data, input, manipulation, and distribution. Mobitrum is proposing an innovative Adaptive...

  11. A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

    2002-08-01

    The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

  12. Cooperative Drought Adaptation: Integrating Infrastructure Development, Conservation, and Water Transfers into Adaptive Policy Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.; Herman, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Water supply policies that integrate portfolios of short-term management decisions with long-term infrastructure development enable utilities to adapt to a range of future scenarios. An effective mix of short-term management actions can augment existing infrastructure, potentially forestalling new development. Likewise, coordinated expansion of infrastructure such as regional interconnections and shared treatment capacity can increase the effectiveness of some management actions like water transfers. Highly adaptable decision pathways that mix long-term infrastructure options and short-term management actions require decision triggers capable of incorporating the impact of these time-evolving decisions on growing water supply needs. Here, we adapt risk-based triggers to sequence a set of potential infrastructure options in combination with utility-specific conservation actions and inter-utility water transfers. Individual infrastructure pathways can be augmented with conservation or water transfers to reduce the cost of meeting utility objectives, but they can also include cooperatively developed, shared infrastructure that expands regional capacity to transfer water. This analysis explores the role of cooperation among four water utilities in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina by formulating three distinct categories of adaptive policy pathways: independent action (utility-specific conservation and supply infrastructure only), weak cooperation (utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers), and strong cooperation (utility specific conservation and jointly developed of regional infrastructure that supports transfers). Results suggest that strong cooperation aids the utilities in meeting their individual objections at substantially lower costs and with fewer irreversible infrastructure options.

  13. An overview of decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been written to provide a non-technical overview of modern decision theory and to identify some of the major ways in which decision theory is relevant to the nuclear waste issue. It concludes that the use of decision theory in the nuclear waste issue should be further developed, and more sophisticated tools should be made used of. In particular, the application of models for uncertainty and for collective decision-making is warranted, and the same applies to models that include the earlier phases of the decision-making process. (92 refs.)

  14. Adaptive Management on Danube Delta’s Biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildiko Ioan

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity is a heritage of life that could hold the information needed for the wellbeing of human kind. The challenge of biodiversity preservation was addressed by various management solutions, the newest being the adaptive management. The paper aims to give insights for the application of adaptive management and to reveal its potential for increasing the effectiveness of ecosystem management in the Danube Delta. Carefully designed adaptive management action plans could allow important improvements in the information base that support decisions related to reed valuation.

  15. Decision Making via AHP

    CERN Document Server

    Andrecut, M

    2014-01-01

    The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a procedure for establishing priorities in multi-criteria decision making problems. Here we discuss the Logarithmic Least Squares (LLS) method for the AHP and group-AHP, which provides an exact and unique solution for the priority vector. Also, we show that for the group-AHP, the LLS method is equivalent with the minimization of the weighted sum of generalized Kullback-Leibler divergences, between the group-priority vector and the priority vector of each expert.

  16. Consumers’ Collision Insurance Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Austin, Laurel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    ), which refines EU theory to incorporate income and predicts that property insurance is a normal good; (b) a mental accounting model based on the idea that consumers budget their income across consumption categories (Thaler, 1985); and (c) the baseline, classic EU theory, which predicts that insurance...... is an inferior good (Mossin, 1968). The behaviour reported by subjects in our study suggests that insurance is a normal good, while their verbal reports reveal desires to balance two conflicting goals in deductible decisions, keeping premiums “affordable” and keeping deductibles “affordable,” which suggests...

  17. Trigger and decision processors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years there have been many attempts in high energy physics to make trigger and decision processes faster and more sophisticated. This became necessary due to a permanent increase of the number of sensitive detector elements in wire chambers and calorimeters, and in fact it was possible because of the fast developments in integrated circuits technique. In this paper the present situation will be reviewed. The discussion will be mainly focussed upon event filtering by pure software methods and - rather hardware related - microprogrammable processors as well as random access memory triggers. (orig.)

  18. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  19. Decision support system for structure synthesis of monitoring systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skatkov A. V.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper is concerned with a structure synthesis of monitoring systems. In the article a decision support system for such synthesis was proposed and described. In the first phase of the process, the proposed classification of monitoring systems is used. Then adaptive algorithms, simulation and analytic modeling are used. The results of studies carried out by means of the proposed program are represented. The topicality of proposed approach was demonstrated. It should be mentioned, that algorithms were thoroughly described, the computing experiments were carried out. The authors believe that the proposed decision support system has many advantages and, consequently, is very useful in structure synthesis of monitoring systems.

  20. Decision making in surgical oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N

    2011-09-01

    Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients.

  1. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  2. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  3. Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval: Semantics, Context, and Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissi...

  4. Consultant choice across decision contexts: are abortion decisions different?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finken, L L; Jacobs, J E

    1996-04-01

    A survey conducted among college students in the midwestern US indicated that abortion decision-making consultation patterns differ substantially from those associated with other types of decisions. Surveyed were 169 predominantly White, middle-income students (68 males and 101 females) 18-20 years of age recruited from an introductory psychology class. Participants were presented with vignettes that pertained to four types of decisions: abortion (unplanned pregnancy), medical (cancer treatment type), future (career move), and interpersonal (crisis with a friend). For each decision, students were asked who they would consult (specific family members, significant others, friends, various professionals) and the order in which they would consult them. The mean number of consultants selected was 3.72 for abortion, 5.54 for medical, 4.90 for future-oriented, and 2.41 for interpersonal decisions. Significant others were selected most often for all decision scenarios; however, the highest frequency of consultation and lowest mean rank order for the significant other was on the abortion decision. The next most important consultant for abortion decisions was friends, then family members, and, finally, professionals. The only gender difference was a greater tendency for females to consult their mothers. For every category of consultant (except best friend), the pattern differed depending on the type of decision. These findings underscore the importance of considering context and multifaceted approaches in the design of programs aimed at enhancing adolescents' decision-making skills. PMID:12347375

  5. DECISIONS, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES RELATED TO DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boghean Florin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalised uncertainty, a phenomenon that today’s managers are facing as part of their professional experience, makes it impossible to anticipate the way the business environment will evolve or what will be the consequences of the decisions they plan to implement. Any decision making process within the company entails the simultaneous presence of a number of economic, technical, juridical, human and managerial variables. The development and the approval of a decision is the result of decision making activities developed by the decision maker and sometimes by a decision support team or/and a decision support system (DSS. These aspects related to specific applications of decision support systems in risk management will be approached in this research paper. Decisions in general and management decisions in particular are associated with numerous risks, due to their complexity and increasing contextual orientation. In each business entity, there are concerns with the implementation of risk management in order to improve the likelihood of meeting objectives, the trust of the parties involved, increase the operational safety and security as well as the protection of the environment, minimise losses, improve organisational resilience in order to diminish the negative impact on the organisation and provide a solid foundation for decision making. Since any business entity is considered to be a wealth generator, the analysis of their performance should not be restricted to financial efficiency alone, but will also encompass their economic efficiency as well. The type of research developed in this paper entails different dimensions: conceptual, methodological, as well as empirical testing. Subsequently, the conducted research entails a methodological side, since the conducted activities have resulted in the presentation of a simulation model that is useful in decision making processes on the capital market. The research conducted in the present paper

  6. Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Alsolami, Fawaz

    2016-04-25

    ‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important areas of applications are knowledge extraction and representation. The benefit of considering inhibitory rules is connected with the fact that in some situations they can describe more knowledge than the decision ones. Decision tables with many-valued decisions arise in combinatorial optimization, computational geometry, fault diagnosis, and especially under the processing of data sets. In this thesis, various examples of real-life problems are considered which help to understand the motivation of the investigation. We extend relatively simple results obtained earlier for decision rules over decision tables with many-valued decisions to the case of inhibitory rules. The behavior of Shannon functions (which characterize complexity of rule systems) is studied for finite and infinite information systems, for global and local approaches, and for decision and inhibitory rules. The extensions of dynamic programming for the study of decision rules over decision tables with single-valued decisions are generalized to the case of decision tables with many-valued decisions. These results are also extended to the case of inhibitory rules. As a result, we have algorithms (i) for multi-stage optimization of rules relative to such criteria as length or coverage, (ii) for counting the number of optimal rules, (iii) for construction of Pareto optimal points for bi-criteria optimization problems, (iv) for construction of graphs describing relationships between two cost functions, and (v) for construction of graphs describing relationships between cost and accuracy of rules. The applications of created tools include comparison (based on information about Pareto optimal points) of greedy heuristics for bi-criteria optimization of rules

  7. A damning decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two issues are discussed regarding the Edwards dam on the Kennebec river in N. America. The first issue relates to fish passages. As it stands today, the dam has no fish passages but to implement fish restoration in the Kennebec basin, a 'trap and truck programme' was implemented in the 1980s: the upstream dam owners provided the truck and the Edwards Manufacturing Company (EMC) supplied the trap. This saddled EMC with the greater expense and eventually EMC withdrew from the scheme. EMC were then seen as obstructing fish restoration in the Kennebec basin. A pressure group wishes to see the dam demolished to provide unobstructed passage for fish. The argument revolves around whether demolition would restore the 1834 situation. The second argument concerns US FERC's decision in 1997 to support demolition of the dam but EMC believes this to be an unsound decision. According to FERC, the cost of demolition is to be borne by EMC and City of Augusta. The author (vice president of EMC) argues that it is a basic premise that we do not take each others property by force and that FERC is in breach of the Fifth Amendment. The argument is no longer about fish but more about the law. (UK)

  8. Novice High School Science Teachers: Lesson Plan Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharon, Aracelis Janelle

    2013-01-01

    The Next Generation Science Standards (NRC, 2013) positions teachers as responsible for necessary decision making about how their intended science lesson plan content supports continuous student science learning. Teachers interact with their instructional lesson plans in dynamic and constructive ways. Adapting lesson plans is complex. This process…

  9. [Postvagotomy adaptation syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapovalov, V A

    1998-01-01

    It was established in experiment, that the changes of the natural resistance of organism indexes and of the peritoneal cavity cytology has compensatory-adaptational character while the denervation-adaptational syndrome occurrence and progress, which may be assessed as eustress. Vagotomy and operative trauma cause qualitatively different reactions of an organism.

  10. Adaptive Wavelet Transforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szu, H.; Hsu, C. [Univ. of Southwestern Louisiana, Lafayette, LA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Human sensors systems (HSS) may be approximately described as an adaptive or self-learning version of the Wavelet Transforms (WT) that are capable to learn from several input-output associative pairs of suitable transform mother wavelets. Such an Adaptive WT (AWT) is a redundant combination of mother wavelets to either represent or classify inputs.

  11. Behavioral Adaptation and Acceptance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.; Jenssen, G.D.

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of Intelligent Vehicles is to improve road safety, throughput, and emissions. However, the predicted effects are not always as large as aimed for. Part of this is due to indirect behavioral changes of drivers, also called behavioral adaptation. Behavioral adaptation (BA) refers to uninte

  12. Behavioural adaptation and acceptance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.; Jenssen, G.D.; Eskandarian, A.

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of Intelligent Vehicles is to improve road safety, throughput, and emissions. However, the predicted effects are not always as large as aimed for. Part of this is due to indirect behavioral changes of drivers, also called behavioral adaptation. Behavioral adaptation (BA) refers to uninte

  13. Application of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein quantum game scheme to decision problems with imperfect recall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate implementations of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) scheme of playing quantum games beyond strategic games. The scope of our research is decision problems, i.e. one-player extensive games. The research is based on the examination of their features when the decision problems are carried out via the EWL protocol. We prove that unitary operators can be adapted to play the role of strategies in decision problems with imperfect recall. Furthermore, we prove that unitary operators provide the decision maker with possibilities that are inaccessible for classical strategies.

  14. Adaptive noise cancellation

    CERN Document Server

    Akram, N

    1999-01-01

    In this report we describe the concept of adaptive noise canceling, an alternative method of estimating signals corrupted by additive noise of interference. The method uses 'primary' input containing the corrupted signal and a 'reference' input containing noise correlated in some unknown way with the primary noise, the reference input is adaptively filtered and subtracted from the primary input to obtain the signal estimate. Adaptive filtering before subtraction allows the treatment of inputs that are deterministic or stochastic, stationary or time variable. When the reference input is free of signal and certain other conditions are met then noise in the primary input can be essentially eliminated without signal distortion. It is further shown that the adaptive filter also acts as notch filter. Simulated results illustrate the usefulness of the adaptive noise canceling technique.

  15. Appraising Adaptive Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai N. Lee

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive management is appraised as a policy implementation approach by examining its conceptual, technical, equity, and practical strengths and limitations. Three conclusions are drawn: (1 Adaptive management has been more influential, so far, as an idea than as a practical means of gaining insight into the behavior of ecosystems utilized and inhabited by humans. (2 Adaptive management should be used only after disputing parties have agreed to an agenda of questions to be answered using the adaptive approach; this is not how the approach has been used. (3 Efficient, effective social learning, of the kind facilitated by adaptive management, is likely to be of strategic importance in governing ecosystems as humanity searches for a sustainable economy.

  16. Adaptive signal processor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An experimental, general purpose adaptive signal processor system has been developed, utilizing a quantized (clipped) version of the Widrow-Hoff least-mean-square adaptive algorithm developed by Moschner. The system accommodates 64 adaptive weight channels with 8-bit resolution for each weight. Internal weight update arithmetic is performed with 16-bit resolution, and the system error signal is measured with 12-bit resolution. An adapt cycle of adjusting all 64 weight channels is accomplished in 8 μsec. Hardware of the signal processor utilizes primarily Schottky-TTL type integrated circuits. A prototype system with 24 weight channels has been constructed and tested. This report presents details of the system design and describes basic experiments performed with the prototype signal processor. Finally some system configurations and applications for this adaptive signal processor are discussed

  17. A software architecture centric self-adaptation approach for Internetware

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MEI Hong; HUANG Gang; LAN Ling; LI JunGuo

    2008-01-01

    Being one of the basic features of Internetware, self-adaptation means that the software system can monitor its runtime state and behavior and adjust them when necessary according to pre-defined policies. Focusingon the three fundamental issues of self-adaptation, including the scope, operability and trustworthiness, a software architecture (SA) centric approach for Internetware's self-adaptation is presented in this paper. All of the self-adaptive actions, i.e. monitoring, analyzing, planning and executing, are performed based on SA. In detail, runtime state and behavior of Internetware are represented and changed in the form of runtime soft-ware architecture. The knowledge for self-adaptation is captured, organized and reasoned in the form of SA so that automatic analysis and decision-making are achieved.

  18. Situation and threat assessment for urban scenarios in a distributed adaptive system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, S.P. van den; Hanckmann, P.; Ditzel, M.

    2011-01-01

    An approach for decision support, consisting of situation and threat assessment is described, as part of a distributed and adaptive multi-sensor fusion engine. The decision support module combines the management and assessment components for situations and threats. The situation assessment determine

  19. Towards a Framework for Self-Adaptive Reliable Network Services in Highly-Uncertain Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Lars Jesper; Schwefel, Hans-Peter; Ceccarelli, Andrea;

    2010-01-01

    In future inhomogeneous, pervasive and highly dynamic networks, end-nodes may often only rely on unreliable and uncertain observations to diagnose hidden network states and decide upon possible remediation actions. Inherent challenges exists to identify good and timely decision strategies...... to improve resilience of end-node services. In this paper we present a framework, called ODDR (Observation, Diagnosis, Decision, Remediation), for improving resilience of network based services through integration of self-adaptive monitoring services, network diagnosis, decision actions, and finally...

  20. [Neural mechanisms of decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funahashi, Shintaro

    2008-09-01

    Decision-making plays an important role in the transformation of incoming sensory information to purposeful actions. Many decisions have important biological and social consequences, while others may have a more limited impact on our everyday life. The neural mechanisms of decision-making currently constitute an important subject under intense investigation in the field of cognitive and behavioral neuroscience. Among the investigations, on this topic, those involving sensory discrimination tasks using visual motion have provided a wealth of information about the nature of the neural circuitry required to perform perceptual decision-making. For example, by using a motion discrimination task, Shadlen and Newsome have shown an essential role of area LIP in perceptual decision-making. On the other hand, the importance of reward and reward expectations as determinants of decision-making is increasingly appreciated. In particular, reinforcement learning and economic theories, such as game theory, have provided valuable insights into the brain functions related to decision-making. By using a competitive game analogous to matching pennies against a computer, Lee's group showed that in monkeys, previous selections modulated prefrontal neural activity and that this modulation affected the current choice behavior. The prefrontal cortex has been shown to participate in decision-making in free-choice conditions. By using a task involving the free choice of 1 target from multiple saccade targets, Funahashi's group examined the prefrontal participation in decision-making in a free-choice condition. They compared the activities of prefrontal neurons during an oculomotor delay task with forced-choice conditions and free-choice conditions and identified the neural components reflecting the underlying decision-making processes. Although several attempts have been made to understand the neural mechanisms of decision-making, further investigations are required to fully understand these

  1. Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roopali Phadke

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerabilities and health burdens of climate change fall disproportionately upon lower income communities and communities of color. Yet the very groups who are most affected by climate change impacts are least likely to be involved in climate adaptation discussions. These communities face critical barriers to involvement including historical disenfranchisement, as well as a sense that climate change is distant and not personally relevant. Boundary organizations are increasingly playing an important role in bringing science to bear on policy decision-making with respect to climate change adaptation, an issue fraught with political and ideological tensions. Our project aimed to engage underrepresented communities in climate change adaptation decision-making using a neighborhood consensus conference model developed and tested in several diverse districts of Saint Paul, Minnesota. Our partnership, a “linked chain” of boundary organizations, devised a neighborhood consensus conference model to present best-available climate data as tangible, place-based scenarios. In so doing, we made climate change “personal” for those who remain outside of climate change planning discourses and opened an opportunity for them to assess their community’s vulnerabilities and communicate their priorities for public investment. Our neighborhood-based model built trust and social capital with local residents and allowed us to bring new voices into conversations around climate change adaptation concerns and priorities. We believe this work will have a long term impact on local climate adaptation planning decisions.

  2. Things as companions : a Peircean approach to urban place / Susann Vihma

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vihma, Susann

    2003-01-01

    Inimtegevuse, keskkonna ja asjade analüüs Peirceþilikus võtmes. Püütakse eritleda tootekekkonna ja disainiprotsessiga seotud inimkogemust. Artefakti käsitletakse kui vastastikuses koostöös toimivat asja, mitte pelgalt passiivset objekti

  3. Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

    2013-01-01

    Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

  4. Advanced intelligent computational technologies and decision support systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kountchev, Roumen

    2014-01-01

    This book offers a state of the art collection covering themes related to Advanced Intelligent Computational Technologies and Decision Support Systems which can be applied to fields like healthcare assisting the humans in solving problems. The book brings forward a wealth of ideas, algorithms and case studies in themes like: intelligent predictive diagnosis; intelligent analyzing of medical images; new format for coding of single and sequences of medical images; Medical Decision Support Systems; diagnosis of Down’s syndrome; computational perspectives for electronic fetal monitoring; efficient compression of CT Images; adaptive interpolation and halftoning for medical images; applications of artificial neural networks for real-life problems solving; present and perspectives for Electronic Healthcare Record Systems; adaptive approaches for noise reduction in sequences of CT images etc.

  5. Adaptive vertical handoff algorithm in heterogeneous networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE Sheng-dong; WU Meng

    2007-01-01

    The integration of cellular network (CN) and wireless local area network (WLAN) is the trend of the next generation mobile communication systems, and nodes will handoff between the two kinds of networks. The received signal strength (RSS) is the dominant factor consijered when handoff occurs. In order to improve the handoff efficiency, this study proposes an adaptive decision algorithm for vertical handoff on the basis of fast Fourier transform (FFT). The algorithm makes handoff decision after analyzing the signal strength fluctuation which is caused by slow fading through FFT. Simulations show that the algorithm reduces the number of handoff by 35%, shortens the areas influenced by slow fading, and enables the nodes to make full use of WLAN in communication compared with traditional algorithms.

  6. Big Decisions, Big Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Bruzelius, Nils; Rothengatter, Werner

    2002-01-01

    In terms of risk, many appraisals of very large infrastructure investments assume, or pretend to assume, that infrastructure policies and projects exist in a predictable Newtonian world of cause and effect where things go according to plan. In reality, the world of policy and project preparation...... major projects. The article describes lessons and recommendations on how to improve accountability in decision making on very large infrastructure investments in Denmark. The conventional approach to infrastructure investments is replaced by an alternative focusing on accountability. Redrawing...... and implementation is a highly stochastic one where things happen only with a certain probability and rarely turn out as originally intended. The failure to reflect the probabilistic reality of investment preparation and implementation is a central reason for the poor track record that can be documented for many...

  7. Shaft siting decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study identifies and establishes relative guidelines to be used for siting of repository shafts. Weights were determined for the significant factors that impact the selection of shaft locations for a nuclear waste repository in salt. The study identified a total of 45 factors. A panel of experienced mining people utilized the Kepner-Tregoe (K-T) Decision Analysis Process to perform a structured evaluation of each significant shaft siting factor. The evaluation determined that 22 of the factors were absolute constraints and that the other 23 factors were desirable characteristics. The group established the relative weights for each of the 23 desirable characteristics by using a paired comparison method. 8 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  8. Optimal boundaries for decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carfi', David

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we state and prove some new results on the optimal boundaries. These boundaries (called Pareto boundaries too are of increasing importance in the applications to Decision Theory. First of all the Pareto boundaries are the first and most important generalization of the concept of optimum; on the other hand, if f is a real functional defined on a non empty set X and K is a part of X, the determination of the optimal boundaries of the part K with respect to some preorder of X for which f is strictly increasing permits to reduce the optimization problem (f, K, inf (or (f, K, sup to the problem (f, minP(K, inf (resp. (f, maxP(K, sup, where by minP(K we denoted the minimal boundary of K (that in general is greatly smoller than K.

  9. Deriving empirical benchmarks from existing monitoring datasets for rangeland adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Under adaptive management, goals and decisions for managing rangeland resources are shaped by requirements like the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Land Health Standards, which specify desired conditions. Without formalized, quantitative benchmarks for triggering management actions, adaptive man...

  10. Extracting principles for information management adaptability during crisis response: A dynamic capability view

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2010-01-01

    During crises, relief agency commanders have to make decisions in a complex and uncertain environment, requiring them to continuously adapt to unforeseen environmental changes. In the process of adaptation, the commanders depend on information management systems for information. Yet there are still

  11. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...

  12. The optimal paths of climate change mitigation and adaptation under certainty and uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Felgenhauer, T.; Bruin, de K.C.

    2009-01-01

    Tradeoffs between climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are explored under both certainty and uncertainty with learning using a numerical two-period decision model. We first replicate a version of the Adaptation in DICE climate model (AD-DICE) (de Bruin et al., 2009), which modifies the

  13. Adaptive Multidimensional Scaling : The Spatial Representation of Brand Consideration and Dissimilarity Judgments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijmolt, T.H.A.; Wedel, M.; DeSarbo, W.S.

    2002-01-01

    We propose Adaptive Multidimensional Scaling (AMDS) for simultaneously deriving a brand map and market segments using consumer data on cognitive decision sets and brand dissimilarities.In AMDS, the judgment task is adapted to the individual respondent: dissimilarity judgments are collected only for

  14. Live and let die: existential decision processes in a fatal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lulé, Dorothée; Nonnenmacher, Sonja; Sorg, Sonja; Heimrath, Johanna; Hautzinger, Martin; Meyer, Thomas; Kübler, Andrea; Birbaumer, Niels; Ludolph, Albert C

    2014-03-01

    Decisions and determinants of decisions to prolong or shorten life in the course of fatal diseases like ALS are poorly understood. Decisions and desire for hastened death of N = 93 ALS patients were investigated in a prospective longitudinal approach three times in the course of 1 year. Determinants of decisions were evaluated: quality of life (QoL), depression, feeling of being a burden, physical function, social support and cognitive status. More than half of patients had a positive attitude towards life-sustaining treatments and they had a low desire for hastened death. Of those with undecided or negative attitude, 10 % changed attitudes towards life-sustaining treatments in the course of 1 year. Patients' desire to hasten death was low and decreased significantly within 1 year despite physical function decline. Those with a high desire for hastened death decided against invasive therapeutic treatments. QoL, depression and social support were not predictors for vital decisions and remained stable. Feeling of being a burden was a predictor for decisions against life-supporting treatments. Throughout physical function loss, decisions to prolong life are flexibly adapted while desire to shorten life declines. QoL was stable and not a predictor for vital decisions, even though anticipated low QoL has been reported to be the reason to request euthanasia. In contrast, feeling of being a burden in decision making needs more attention in clinical counselling. Considering a patient's possible adaptation processes in the course of a fatal disease is necessary.

  15. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems.

  16. Ecological rationality: a framework for understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

    2012-01-01

    The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people's decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into reduced decision quality. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision environment in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

  17. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. PMID:27278359

  18. Constraint programming and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    2014-01-01

    In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

  19. Ten Challenges for Decision Neuroscience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott A Huettel

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision neuroscience research, as currently practiced, employs the methods of neuroscience to investigate concepts drawn from the social sciences. A typical study selects one or more variables from psychological or economic models, manipulates or measures choices within a simplified choice task, and then identifies neural correlates. Using this neuroeconomic approach, researchers have described brain systems whose functioning shapes key economic variables, most notably aspects of subjective value. Yet, the standard approach has fundamental limitations. Important aspects of the mechanisms of decision making – from the sources of variability in decision making to the very computations supported by decision-related regions – remain incompletely understood. Here, I outline ten outstanding challenges for future research in decision neuroscience. While some will be readily addressed using current methods, others will require new conceptual frameworks. Accordingly, a new strain of decision neuroscience will marry methods from economics and cognitive science to concepts from neurobiology and cognitive neuroscience.

  20. Modular analytics management architecture for interoperability and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, Stephen; Metzger, Max; Gorman, Joe; Sliva, Amy

    2016-05-01

    The Dual Node Decision Wheels (DNDW) architecture is a new approach to information fusion and decision support systems. By combining cognitive systems engineering organizational analysis tools, such as decision trees, with the Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture for information fusion, the DNDW can align relevant data and information products with an organization's decision-making processes. In this paper, we present the Compositional Inference and Machine Learning Environment (CIMLE), a prototype framework based on the principles of the DNDW architecture. CIMLE provides a flexible environment so heterogeneous data sources, messaging frameworks, and analytic processes can interoperate to provide the specific information required for situation understanding and decision making. It was designed to support the creation of modular, distributed solutions over large monolithic systems. With CIMLE, users can repurpose individual analytics to address evolving decision-making requirements or to adapt to new mission contexts; CIMLE's modular design simplifies integration with new host operating environments. CIMLE's configurable system design enables model developers to build analytical systems that closely align with organizational structures and processes and support the organization's information needs.

  1. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation...... framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best...... to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities....

  2. Decision support system for structure synthesis of monitoring systems

    OpenAIRE

    Skatkov A. V.; Voronin D. Y.; Danilchuk D. N.

    2008-01-01

    The paper is concerned with a structure synthesis of monitoring systems. In the article a decision support system for such synthesis was proposed and described. In the first phase of the process, the proposed classification of monitoring systems is used. Then adaptive algorithms, simulation and analytic modeling are used. The results of studies carried out by means of the proposed program are represented. The topicality of proposed approach was demonstrated. It should be mentioned, that algor...

  3. Managerial Decision-making and Management Accounting Information

    OpenAIRE

    Butterfield, Emma

    2016-01-01

    Considering the pace of business changes and significant amounts of information available to businesses using modern technology, one prime challenge has become to filter out the valuable information and present it in a manner that makes it useful for managers to take on business decisions. These changed requirements have led management accounting to adapt alongside. This Master’s Thesis is a case study of Tecnotree Group, a global provider of telecom IT solutions, the purpose of which was to ...

  4. Adapt or Become Extinct!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goumas, Georgios; McKee, Sally A.; Själander, Magnus;

    2011-01-01

    boundaries (walls) for applications which limit software development (parallel programming wall), performance (memory wall, communication wall) and viability (power wall). The only way to survive in such a demanding environment is by adaptation. In this paper we discuss how dynamic information collected...... static analysis (either during ahead-of-time or just-in-time) compilation. We extend the notion of information-driven adaptation and outline the architecture of an infrastructure designed to enable information ow and adaptation throughout the life-cycle of an application....

  5. Adaptation investments and homeownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Skak, Morten

    2008-01-01

    This article develops a model where ownership improves efficiency of the housing market as it enhances the utility of housing consumption for some consumers. The model is based on an extended Hotelling-Lancaster utility approach in which the ideal variant of housing is obtainable only by adapting...... the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously decide housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation...

  6. [Adaptive optics for ophthalmology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, M

    2016-04-01

    Adaptive optics is a technology enhancing the visual performance of an optical system by correcting its optical aberrations. Adaptive optics have already enabled several breakthroughs in the field of visual sciences, such as improvement of visual acuity in normal and diseased eyes beyond physiologic limits, and the correction of presbyopia. Adaptive optics technology also provides high-resolution, in vivo imaging of the retina that may eventually help to detect the onset of retinal conditions at an early stage and provide better assessment of treatment efficacy.

  7. Adaptive network countermeasures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McClelland-Bane, Randy; Van Randwyk, Jamie A.; Carathimas, Anthony G.; Thomas, Eric D.

    2003-10-01

    This report describes the results of a two-year LDRD funded by the Differentiating Technologies investment area. The project investigated the use of countermeasures in protecting computer networks as well as how current countermeasures could be changed in order to adapt with both evolving networks and evolving attackers. The work involved collaboration between Sandia employees and students in the Sandia - California Center for Cyber Defenders (CCD) program. We include an explanation of the need for adaptive countermeasures, a description of the architecture we designed to provide adaptive countermeasures, and evaluations of the system.

  8. Introduction to adaptive arrays

    CERN Document Server

    Monzingo, Bob; Haupt, Randy

    2011-01-01

    This second edition is an extensive modernization of the bestselling introduction to the subject of adaptive array sensor systems. With the number of applications of adaptive array sensor systems growing each year, this look at the principles and fundamental techniques that are critical to these systems is more important than ever before. Introduction to Adaptive Arrays, 2nd Edition is organized as a tutorial, taking the reader by the hand and leading them through the maze of jargon that often surrounds this highly technical subject. It is easy to read and easy to follow as fundamental concept

  9. FINANCING DECISION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

    OpenAIRE

    ANDREI STANCULESCU; DAN NICOLAE IVANESCU; PETRE BREZEANU

    2011-01-01

    This paper sustains the existence of a biunivocal link between a company’s financing decision and the corporate governance. On the one hand, the financing decision has an impact on corporate performance, which has been confirmed. According to the agency theory, the financing decision will contribute to solving interest conflicts between shareholders and managers. On the other hand, the corporate governance mechanism provides the proper contractual framework for attracting financing resources....

  10. Aging and consumer decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Carpenter, Stephanie M.; Yoon, Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    Research on consumer decision making and aging is especially important for fostering a better understanding of ways to maintain consumer satisfaction and high decision quality across the life span. We provide a review of extant research on the effects of normal aging on cognition and decision processes and how these age-related processes are influenced by task environment, meaningfulness of the task, and consumer expertise. We consider how research centered on these topics generates insights ...

  11. Diversity and Adaptation in Large Population Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, K. Y. Michael; Lim, S. W.; Luo, Peixun

    We consider a version of large population games whose players compete for resources using strategies with adaptable preferences. The system efficiency is measured by the variance of the decisions. In the regime where the system can be plagued by the maladaptive behavior of the players, we find that diversity among the players improves the system efficiency, though it slows the convergence to the steady state. Diversity causes a mild spread of resources at the transient state, but reduces the uneven distribution of resources in the steady state.

  12. The process of organisational adaptation through innovations, and organisational adaptability

    OpenAIRE

    Tikka, Tommi

    2010-01-01

    This study is about the process of organisational adaptation and organisational adaptability. The study generates a theoretical framework about organisational adaptation behaviour and conditions that have influence on success of organisational adaptation. The research questions of the study are: How does an organisation adapt through innovations, and which conditions enhance or impede organisational adaptation through innovations? The data were gathered from five case organisations withi...

  13. Adaptation and inertia in dynamic environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stieglitz, Nils; Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Becker, Markus C.

    2016-01-01

    Research summary: We address conflicting claims and mixed empirical findings about adaptation as a response to increased environmental dynamism. We disentangle distinct dimensions of environmental dynamism—the direction, magnitude, and frequency of change—and identify how selection shapes adaptive...... responses to these dimensions. Our results show how frequent directional changes undermine the value of exploration and decisively shift performance advantages to inert organizations that restrict exploration. In contrast, increased environmental variance rewards exploration. Our results also show that...... opportunities is to identify and to focus on strategic actions whose payoffs on average are high, independent of environmental volatility. Low levels of exploration and long-term strategic focus are preferred strategies in these circumstances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  14. Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

    2015-12-01

    Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

  15. Customised DSS and decision conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents and exemplifies a combination of techniques for deriving and modelling decision-maker and/or stakeholder preferences using a decision conference process. The applied techniques are used for the development of customised decision support systems (C-DSS) which can be used...... for appraisals of large transport infrastructure projects. The paper exemplifies how the process at a decision conference can be effectively supported by a DSS customised using appropriate techniques for the specific task in hand. In this respect a conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is combined...

  16. Structured decision making: Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

  17. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  18. Perceptual learning in sensorimotor adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darainy, Mohammad; Vahdat, Shahabeddin; Ostry, David J

    2013-11-01

    Motor learning often involves situations in which the somatosensory targets of movement are, at least initially, poorly defined, as for example, in learning to speak or learning the feel of a proper tennis serve. Under these conditions, motor skill acquisition presumably requires perceptual as well as motor learning. That is, it engages both the progressive shaping of sensory targets and associated changes in motor performance. In the present study, we test the idea that perceptual learning alters somatosensory function and in so doing produces changes to human motor performance and sensorimotor adaptation. Subjects in these experiments undergo perceptual training in which a robotic device passively moves the subject's arm on one of a set of fan-shaped trajectories. Subjects are required to indicate whether the robot moved the limb to the right or the left and feedback is provided. Over the course of training both the perceptual boundary and acuity are altered. The perceptual learning is observed to improve both the rate and extent of learning in a subsequent sensorimotor adaptation task and the benefits persist for at least 24 h. The improvement in the present studies varies systematically with changes in perceptual acuity and is obtained regardless of whether the perceptual boundary shift serves to systematically increase or decrease error on subsequent movements. The beneficial effects of perceptual training are found to be substantially dependent on reinforced decision-making in the sensory domain. Passive-movement training on its own is less able to alter subsequent learning in the motor system. Overall, this study suggests perceptual learning plays an integral role in motor learning.

  19. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Mao

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system. The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation is performed by analyzing the probabilistic linear temporal logic properties of the system as well as by analyzing the schedulers, in particular the optimal schedulers, induced by the learned models.

  20. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred;

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  1. Improving treatment decisions from radiographs: effect of a decision aid

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A. Mileman; W.B. van den Hout

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To test whether dental students’ accuracy of treatment decision making for dentine caries using radiographs improved after using a decision aid (DA). Methods: Dental students (n = 227) assessed the need for treatment for proximal surfaces of a test set of radiographs for a scenario patient.

  2. Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, J.; Wilby, R.; Nicholls, R

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of i...

  3. Subnational Adaptation Finance Allocation: Comparing Decentralized and Devolved Political Institutions in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Sam Barrett

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation finance is designed to help vulnerable populations withstand effects of climate variability and change. However, levels of vulnerability seldom determine finance distribution. Political and economic preferences of national and local government decision-makers tend to direct funding streams. This article takes an institutional approach to adaptation finance allocation by comparing decentralized and devolved local governance structures managing adaptation finance in Kenya before and ...

  4. Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Tirana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAMARBER MALLTEZI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Tirana has recently experienced changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures and occurrence of extreme weather events. Such events – in combination with a rapid increase of urban areas and impermeable cement covering the natural soil in the city – have caused increased flooding, riverside erosion, delayed traffic, increased spending for cooling during the summer, increased need for health services, and an urgent need to plan the city smartly. Tirana is preparing a set of Climate Change Adaptation Actions in order to manage the posed risks and adapt to climate change. The city administration should integrate climate change adaptation in their management and planning processes. This exercise was prepared by using the Climate Compass tool and included the vulnerability assessment of different sectors in the city, evaluated the risks posed to vulnerable target groups and proposed feasible adaptation options. It outlines mostly actions to be taken to manage risks and build climate resilience across essential public infrastructure and services. Such actions would require better land use planning to maintain – and where possible increase – the natural areas and leave the natural soil undisturbed. Key to success is integrating adaptation concepts into the city planning and development investments. The result is a novel approach and guidance to better integrate adaptation concepts in city planning and new technologies to prevent heat waves, flood risks in the city, etc.Administrators of the Tirana Municipality should keep in mind and integrate the climate change adaptationactions into daily planning and decision making for several sectors including urban planning, transport, public services, water infrastructure, emergency response, etc. in order to ensure sustainable development for the city.

  5. On optimal decision-making in brains and social insect colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, James A R; Bogacz, Rafal; Dornhaus, Anna; Planqué, Robert; Kovacs, Tim; Franks, Nigel R

    2009-11-01

    The problem of how to compromise between speed and accuracy in decision-making faces organisms at many levels of biological complexity. Striking parallels are evident between decision-making in primate brains and collective decision-making in social insect colonies: in both systems, separate populations accumulate evidence for alternative choices; when one population reaches a threshold, a decision is made for the corresponding alternative, and this threshold may be varied to compromise between the speed and the accuracy of decision-making. In primate decision-making, simple models of these processes have been shown, under certain parametrizations, to implement the statistically optimal procedure that minimizes decision time for any given error rate. In this paper, we adapt these same analysis techniques and apply them to new models of collective decision-making in social insect colonies. We show that social insect colonies may also be able to achieve statistically optimal collective decision-making in a very similar way to primate brains, via direct competition between evidence-accumulating populations. This optimality result makes testable predictions for how collective decision-making in social insects should be organized. Our approach also represents the first attempt to identify a common theoretical framework for the study of decision-making in diverse biological systems.

  6. Evolution of a vertebrate social decision-making network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Lauren A; Hofmann, Hans A

    2012-06-01

    Animals evaluate and respond to their social environment with adaptive decisions. Revealing the neural mechanisms of such decisions is a major goal in biology. We analyzed expression profiles for 10 neurochemical genes across 12 brain regions important for decision-making in 88 species representing five vertebrate lineages. We found that behaviorally relevant brain regions are remarkably conserved over 450 million years of evolution. We also find evidence that different brain regions have experienced different selection pressures, because spatial distribution of neuroendocrine ligands are more flexible than their receptors across vertebrates. Our analysis suggests that the diversity of social behavior in vertebrates can be explained, in part, by variations on a theme of conserved neural and gene expression networks.

  7. Research of personal decision process using event-related potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-10-01

    To gain insights into the neural basis of such adaptive decision-making processes, we investigated the nature of learning process in humans playing a competitive game with binary choices, using a matching pennies game. As in reinforcement learning, the subject's choice during a competitive game was biased by its choice and reward history, as well as by the strategies of its opponent. Analyses of ERP data focused on the feedback-related negativity (FRN), we found that the magnitude of ERPs after losing to the computer opponent predicted whether subjects would change decision behavior on the subsequent trial. These findings provide novel evidence that humans engage a reinforcement learning process to adjust representations of competing decision options.

  8. Complex Strategic Choices Applying Systemic Planning for Strategic Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...

  9. Decision Support Systems - Technical Prerequisites and Military Requirements

    CERN Document Server

    Tolk, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Decision Support Systems in the sense of online alternative course of action (ACAO) development and analysis as well as tools for online Development of Doctrine and Tactics Techniques, and Procedures (DTTP) for support to operations make it possible to evaluate and forecast the command and control processes and the performance capabilities of the friendly and enemy forces and other decision relevant factors, support the military commander (brigade and higher) and his staff in their headquarter by increasing their ability to identify own opportunities, support all phases of the command and control process, use computer based, automatic and closed models, that can be adapted to the current situation. Objective of the paper is to present the results of studies conducted in Germany on behalf of the German Ministry of Defense with the objective to work out the conceptual basis for decision support systems and to evaluate, how this technique will influence the command and control system of the army of the federal a...

  10. Decision-fusion-based automated drill bit toolmark correlator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Brett C.; Press, Michael J.; Guerci, Joseph R.

    1999-02-01

    This paper describes a recent study conducted to investigate the reproducibility of toolmarks left by drill bits. This paper focuses on the automated analysis aspect of the study, and particularly the advantages of using decision fusion methods in the comparisons. To enable the study to encompass a large number of samples, existing technology was adapted to the task of automatically comparing the test impressions. Advanced forensic pattern recognition algorithms that had been developed for the comparison of ballistic evidence in the DRUGFIRETM system were modified for use in this test. The results of the decision fusion architecture closely matched those obtained by expert visual examination. The study, aided by the improved pattern recognition algorithm, showed that drill bit impressions do contain reproducible marks. In a blind test, the DRUGFIRE pattern recognition algorithm, enhanced with the decision fusion architecture, consistently identified the correct bit as the source of the test impressions.

  11. Adapt or Die

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brody, Joshua Eric; Larsen, Kasper Green

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we study the role non-adaptivity plays in maintaining dynamic data structures. Roughly speaking, a data structure is non-adaptive if the memory locations it reads and/or writes when processing a query or update depend only on the query or update and not on the contents of previously...... read cells. We study such non-adaptive data structures in the cell probe model. This model is one of the least restrictive lower bound models and in particular, cell probe lower bounds apply to data structures developed in the popular word-RAM model. Unfortunately, this generality comes at a high cost...... several different notions of non-adaptivity and identify key properties that must be dealt with if we are to prove polynomial lower bounds without restrictions on the data structures. Finally, our results also unveil an interesting connection between data structures and depth-2 circuits. This allows us...

  12. Adaptations, exaptations, and spandrels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buss, D M; Haselton, M G; Shackelford, T K; Bleske, A L; Wakefield, J C

    1998-05-01

    Adaptation and natural selection are central concepts in the emerging science of evolutionary psychology. Natural selection is the only known causal process capable of producing complex functional organic mechanisms. These adaptations, along with their incidental by-products and a residue of noise, comprise all forms of life. Recently, S. J. Gould (1991) proposed that exaptations and spandrels may be more important than adaptations for evolutionary psychology. These refer to features that did not originally arise for their current use but rather were co-opted for new purposes. He suggested that many important phenomena--such as art, language, commerce, and war--although evolutionary in origin, are incidental spandrels of the large human brain. The authors outline the conceptual and evidentiary standards that apply to adaptations, exaptations, and spandrels and discuss the relative utility of these concepts for psychological science. PMID:9612136

  13. Adaptive Architectural Envelope

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foged, Isak Worre; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2010-01-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing variety of applications of adaptive architectural structures for improvement of structural performance by recognizing changes in their environments and loads, adapting to meet goals, and using past events to improve future performance or maintain serviceability....... The general scopes of this paper are to develop a new adaptive kinetic architectural structure, particularly a reconfigurable architectural structure which can transform body shape from planar geometries to hyper-surfaces using different control strategies, i.e. a transformation into more than one or two...... different shape alternatives. The adaptive structure is a proposal for a responsive building envelope which is an idea of a first level operational framework for present and future investigations towards performance based responsive architectures through a set of responsive typologies. A mock- up concept...

  14. Asimovian Adaptive Agents

    CERN Document Server

    Gordon, D F

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this research is to develop agents that are adaptive and predictable and timely. At first blush, these three requirements seem contradictory. For example, adaptation risks introducing undesirable side effects, thereby making agents' behavior less predictable. Furthermore, although formal verification can assist in ensuring behavioral predictability, it is known to be time-consuming. Our solution to the challenge of satisfying all three requirements is the following. Agents have finite-state automaton plans, which are adapted online via evolutionary learning (perturbation) operators. To ensure that critical behavioral constraints are always satisfied, agents' plans are first formally verified. They are then reverified after every adaptation. If reverification concludes that constraints are violated, the plans are repaired. The main objective of this paper is to improve the efficiency of reverification after learning, so that agents have a sufficiently rapid response time. We present two solutions: ...

  15. The genomics of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radwan, Jacek; Babik, Wiesław

    2012-12-22

    The amount and nature of genetic variation available to natural selection affect the rate, course and outcome of evolution. Consequently, the study of the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change has occupied biologists for decades, but progress has been hampered by the lack of resolution and the absence of a genome-level perspective. Technological advances in recent years should now allow us to answer many long-standing questions about the nature of adaptation. The data gathered so far are beginning to challenge some widespread views of the way in which natural selection operates at the genomic level. Papers in this Special Feature of Proceedings of the Royal Society B illustrate various aspects of the broad field of adaptation genomics. This introductory article sets up a context and, on the basis of a few selected examples, discusses how genomic data can advance our understanding of the process of adaptation.

  16. Statistical Physics of Adaptation

    CERN Document Server

    Perunov, Nikolai; England, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    All living things exhibit adaptations that enable them to survive and reproduce in the natural environment that they inhabit. From a biological standpoint, it has long been understood that adaptation comes from natural selection, whereby maladapted individuals do not pass their traits effectively to future generations. However, we may also consider the phenomenon of adaptation from the standpoint of physics, and ask whether it is possible to delineate what the difference is in terms of physical properties between something that is well-adapted to its surrounding environment, and something that is not. In this work, we undertake to address this question from a theoretical standpoint. Building on past fundamental results in far-from-equilibrium statistical mechanics, we demonstrate a generalization of the Helmholtz free energy for the finite-time stochastic evolution of driven Newtonian matter. By analyzing this expression term by term, we are able to argue for a general tendency in driven many-particle systems...

  17. Islands, resettlement and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Jon; O'Neill, Saffron J.

    2012-01-01

    Resettlement of people living on islands in anticipation of climate impacts risks maladaptation, but some forms of population movement carry fewer risks and larger rewards in terms of adapting to climate change.

  18. Adaptive Heat Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, A. E.; Babajanyan, S. G.; Martirosyan, N. H.; Melkikh, A. V.

    2016-07-01

    A major limitation of many heat engines is that their functioning demands on-line control and/or an external fitting between the environmental parameters (e.g., temperatures of thermal baths) and internal parameters of the engine. We study a model for an adaptive heat engine, where—due to feedback from the functional part—the engine's structure adapts to given thermal baths. Hence, no on-line control and no external fitting are needed. The engine can employ unknown resources; it can also adapt to results of its own functioning that make the bath temperatures closer. We determine resources of adaptation and relate them to the prior information available about the environment.

  19. Adaptive digital filters

    CERN Document Server

    Kovačević, Branko; Milosavljević, Milan

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive Digital Filters” presents an important discipline applied to the domain of speech processing. The book first makes the reader acquainted with the basic terms of filtering and adaptive filtering, before introducing the field of advanced modern algorithms, some of which are contributed by the authors themselves. Working in the field of adaptive signal processing requires the use of complex mathematical tools. The book offers a detailed presentation of the mathematical models that is clear and consistent, an approach that allows everyone with a college level of mathematics knowledge to successfully follow the mathematical derivations and descriptions of algorithms.   The algorithms are presented in flow charts, which facilitates their practical implementation. The book presents many experimental results and treats the aspects of practical application of adaptive filtering in real systems, making it a valuable resource for both undergraduate and graduate students, and for all others interested in m...

  20. Limits to adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Kirstin; Berkhout, Frans; Preston, Benjamin L.; Klein, Richard J. T.; Midgley, Guy; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society's responses to climate change.

  1. The genomics of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radwan, Jacek; Babik, Wiesław

    2012-12-22

    The amount and nature of genetic variation available to natural selection affect the rate, course and outcome of evolution. Consequently, the study of the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change has occupied biologists for decades, but progress has been hampered by the lack of resolution and the absence of a genome-level perspective. Technological advances in recent years should now allow us to answer many long-standing questions about the nature of adaptation. The data gathered so far are beginning to challenge some widespread views of the way in which natural selection operates at the genomic level. Papers in this Special Feature of Proceedings of the Royal Society B illustrate various aspects of the broad field of adaptation genomics. This introductory article sets up a context and, on the basis of a few selected examples, discusses how genomic data can advance our understanding of the process of adaptation. PMID:23097510

  2. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-06-16

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives. PMID:26082542

  3. Environmentally-adapted local energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moe, N.; Oefverholm, E. [NUTEK, Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Owe [EKAN Gruppen (Sweden); Froste, H. [Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1997-10-01

    Energy companies, municipalities, property companies, firms of consultants, environmental groups and individuals are examples of players working locally to shape environmentally adapted energy systems. These players have needed information making them better able to make decisions on cost-efficient, environmentally-adapted energy systems. This book answers many of the questions they have put. The volume is mainly based on Swedish handbooks produced by the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development, NUTEK, together with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. These handbooks have been used in conjunction with municipal energy planning, local Agenda 21 work, to provide a basis for deciding on concrete local energy systems. The contents in brief: -The book throws new light on the concept of energy efficiency; -A section on the environment compares how air-polluting emissions vary with different methods of energy production; -A section contains more than 40 ideas for measures which can be profitable, reduce energy consumption and the impact on the environment all at the same time; -The book gives concrete examples of new, alternative and environmentally-adapted local energy systems. More efficient use of energy is included as a possible change of energy system; -The greatest emphasis is laid upon alternative energy systems for heating. It may be heating in a house, block of flats, office building or school; -Finally, there are examples of environmentally-adapted local energy planning.

  4. Adaptive quantum teleportation

    OpenAIRE

    Modlawska, Joanna; Grudka, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    We consider multiple teleportation in the Knill-Laflamme-Milburn (KLM) scheme. We introduce adaptive teleportation, i.e., such that the choice of entangled state used in the next teleportation depends on the results of the measurements performed during the previous teleportations. We show that adaptive teleportation enables an increase in the probability of faithful multiple teleportation in the KLM scheme. In particular if a qubit is to be teleported more than once then it is better to use n...

  5. From equivalence to adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina Borowczyk

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to illustrate in which cases the translators use the adaptation when they are confronted with a term related to sociocultural aspects. We will discuss the notions of equivalence and adaptation and their limits in the translation. Some samples from Arte TV news and from the American film Shrek translated into Polish, German and French will be provided as a support for this article.

  6. Opportunistic Adaptation Knowledge Discovery

    OpenAIRE

    Badra, Fadi; Cordier, Amélie; Lieber, Jean

    2009-01-01

    The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com International audience Adaptation has long been considered as the Achilles' heel of case-based reasoning since it requires some domain-specific knowledge that is difficult to acquire. In this paper, two strategies are combined in order to reduce the knowledge engineering cost induced by the adaptation knowledge (CA) acquisition task: CA is learned from the case base by the means of knowledge discovery techniques, and the CA a...

  7. Frustratingly Easy Domain Adaptation

    CERN Document Server

    Daumé, Hal

    2009-01-01

    We describe an approach to domain adaptation that is appropriate exactly in the case when one has enough ``target'' data to do slightly better than just using only ``source'' data. Our approach is incredibly simple, easy to implement as a preprocessing step (10 lines of Perl!) and outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on a range of datasets. Moreover, it is trivially extended to a multi-domain adaptation problem, where one has data from a variety of different domains.

  8. Robust Adaptive Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narendra, K. S.; Annaswamy, A. M.

    1985-01-01

    Several concepts and results in robust adaptive control are are discussed and is organized in three parts. The first part surveys existing algorithms. Different formulations of the problem and theoretical solutions that have been suggested are reviewed here. The second part contains new results related to the role of persistent excitation in robust adaptive systems and the use of hybrid control to improve robustness. In the third part promising new areas for future research are suggested which combine different approaches currently known.

  9. Network and adaptive sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arijit

    2014-01-01

    Combining the two statistical techniques of network sampling and adaptive sampling, this book illustrates the advantages of using them in tandem to effectively capture sparsely located elements in unknown pockets. It shows how network sampling is a reliable guide in capturing inaccessible entities through linked auxiliaries. The text also explores how adaptive sampling is strengthened in information content through subsidiary sampling with devices to mitigate unmanageable expanding sample sizes. Empirical data illustrates the applicability of both methods.

  10. The genomics of adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Radwan, Jacek; Babik, Wiesław

    2012-01-01

    The amount and nature of genetic variation available to natural selection affect the rate, course and outcome of evolution. Consequently, the study of the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change has occupied biologists for decades, but progress has been hampered by the lack of resolution and the absence of a genome-level perspective. Technological advances in recent years should now allow us to answer many long-standing questions about the nature of adaptation. The data gathered so far ...

  11. Critical decisions on Cosmic Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-11-01

    , the technical precursor to the world’s first gravitational wave astronomical observatory, LISA. The LISA mission itself (to be carried out in cooperation with the United States) is scheduled for launch in 2012. ESA's Cosmic Vision, set to last until 2012, is a living programme. It has to adapt constantly to the available funding as well as respond to the expectations of the scientific community, and to technological developments. Within these boundaries, the decisions made by the SPC try to maximise the outcome of Cosmic Vision across disciplines, keeping it challenging and at the same time affordable. Nonetheless, there are many European scientists with ambitions that exceed the programme’s ability to respond.

  12. Soft Decision Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Glen; Lansdowne, Chatwin; Zucha, Joan; Schlensinger, Adam

    2013-01-01

    The Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) is an instrument that combines hardware, firmware, and software to perform realtime closed-loop end-to-end statistical analysis of single- or dual- channel serial digital RF communications systems operating in very low signal-to-noise conditions. As an innovation, the unique SDA capabilities allow it to perform analysis of situations where the receiving communication system slips bits due to low signal-to-noise conditions or experiences constellation rotations resulting in channel polarity in versions or channel assignment swaps. SDA s closed-loop detection allows it to instrument a live system and correlate observations with frame, codeword, and packet losses, as well as Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) events. The SDA s abilities are not confined to performing analysis in low signal-to-noise conditions. Its analysis provides in-depth insight of a communication system s receiver performance in a variety of operating conditions. The SDA incorporates two techniques for identifying slips. The first is an examination of content of the received data stream s relation to the transmitted data content and the second is a direct examination of the receiver s recovered clock signals relative to a reference. Both techniques provide benefits in different ways and allow the communication engineer evaluating test results increased confidence and understanding of receiver performance. Direct examination of data contents is performed by two different data techniques, power correlation or a modified Massey correlation, and can be applied to soft decision data widths 1 to 12 bits wide over a correlation depth ranging from 16 to 512 samples. The SDA detects receiver bit slips within a 4 bits window and can handle systems with up to four quadrants (QPSK, SQPSK, and BPSK systems). The SDA continuously monitors correlation results to characterize slips and quadrant change and is capable of performing analysis even when the

  13. The economics of optimal adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.

    2002-07-01

    This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce

  14. Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.

    2005-01-01

    While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

  15. Leak test adapter for containers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallett, Brian H.; Hartley, Michael S.

    1996-01-01

    An adapter is provided for facilitating the charging of containers and leak testing penetration areas. The adapter comprises an adapter body and stem which are secured to the container's penetration areas. The container is then pressurized with a tracer gas. Manipulating the adapter stem installs a penetration plug allowing the adapter to be removed and the penetration to be leak tested with a mass spectrometer. Additionally, a method is provided for using the adapter.

  16. Adaptation through proportion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Liyang; Shi, Wenjia; Tang, Chao

    2016-08-01

    Adaptation is a ubiquitous feature in biological sensory and signaling networks. It has been suggested that adaptive systems may follow certain simple design principles across diverse organisms, cells and pathways. One class of networks that can achieve adaptation utilizes an incoherent feedforward control, in which two parallel signaling branches exert opposite but proportional effects on the output at steady state. In this paper, we generalize this adaptation mechanism by establishing a steady-state proportionality relationship among a subset of nodes in a network. Adaptation can be achieved by using any two nodes in the sub-network to respectively regulate the output node positively and negatively. We focus on enzyme networks and first identify basic regulation motifs consisting of two and three nodes that can be used to build small networks with proportional relationships. Larger proportional networks can then be constructed modularly similar to LEGOs. Our method provides a general framework to construct and analyze a class of proportional and/or adaptation networks with arbitrary size, flexibility and versatile functional features.

  17. Adaptation and perceptual norms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Michael A.; Yasuda, Maiko; Haber, Sara; Leonard, Deanne; Ballardini, Nicole

    2007-02-01

    We used adaptation to examine the relationship between perceptual norms--the stimuli observers describe as psychologically neutral, and response norms--the stimulus levels that leave visual sensitivity in a neutral or balanced state. Adapting to stimuli on opposite sides of a neutral point (e.g. redder or greener than white) biases appearance in opposite ways. Thus the adapting stimulus can be titrated to find the unique adapting level that does not bias appearance. We compared these response norms to subjectively defined neutral points both within the same observer (at different retinal eccentricities) and between observers. These comparisons were made for visual judgments of color, image focus, and human faces, stimuli that are very different and may depend on very different levels of processing, yet which share the property that for each there is a well defined and perceptually salient norm. In each case the adaptation aftereffects were consistent with an underlying sensitivity basis for the perceptual norm. Specifically, response norms were similar to and thus covaried with the perceptual norm, and under common adaptation differences between subjectively defined norms were reduced. These results are consistent with models of norm-based codes and suggest that these codes underlie an important link between visual coding and visual experience.

  18. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  19. VIEWING URBAN DISRUPTIONS FROM A DECISION INFORMATICS PERSPECTIVE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    James M. TIEN

    2005-01-01

    Urban infrastructures are the focus of terrorist acts because, quite simply, they produce the most visible impact, if not casualties. While terrorist acts are the most insidious and onerous of all disruptions, it is obvious that there are many similarities to the way one should deal with these willful acts and those caused by natural and accidental incidents that have also resulted in adverse and severe consequences. However, there is one major and critical difference between terrorist acts and the other types of disruptions: the terrorist acts are willful - and therefore also adaptive, if not coordinated. One must counter these acts with the same, if not more sophisticated, willful, adaptive and informed approach. Real-time, information-based decision making - which Tien (2003) has called the decision informatics paradigm - is the approach advanced herein to help make the right decisions at the various stages of a disruption. It is focused on decisions and based on multiple data sources, data fusion and analysis methods, timely information, stochastic decision models and a systems engineering outlook; moreover, it is multidisciplinary, evolutionary and systemic in practice. The approach provides a consistent way to address real-time emergency issues, including those concerned with the preparation for a major disruption, the prediction of such a disruption, the prevention or mitigation of the disruption, the detection of the disruption, the response to the disruption, and the recovery steps that are necessary to adequately, ifnot fully, recuperate from the disruption. The efforts of the U. S. Department of Homeland Security and its academically-based Homeland Security Centers of Excellence are considered within the proposed types, stages and decisions framework.

  20. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated

  1. Brain and behavior in decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Heathcote, Andrew; Brown, Scott D

    2014-07-01

    Speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) is an adaptive process balancing urgency and caution when making decisions. Computational cognitive theories, known as "evidence accumulation models", have explained SATs via a manipulation of the amount of evidence necessary to trigger response selection. New light has been shed on these processes by single-cell recordings from monkeys who were adjusting their SAT settings. Those data have been interpreted as inconsistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, prompting the addition of new mechanisms to the models. We show that this interpretation was wrong, by demonstrating that the neural spiking data, and the behavioural data are consistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, without positing additional mechanisms. Our approach succeeds by using the neural data to provide constraints on the cognitive model. Open questions remain about the locus of the link between certain elements of the cognitive models and the neurophysiology, and about the relationship between activity in cortical neurons identified with decision-making vs. activity in downstream areas more closely linked with motor effectors. PMID:24991810

  2. Planning and decision making for aerial robots

    CERN Document Server

    Bestaoui Sebbane, Yasmina

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent.   Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algori...

  3. Brain and behavior in decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Cassey

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT is an adaptive process balancing urgency and caution when making decisions. Computational cognitive theories, known as "evidence accumulation models", have explained SATs via a manipulation of the amount of evidence necessary to trigger response selection. New light has been shed on these processes by single-cell recordings from monkeys who were adjusting their SAT settings. Those data have been interpreted as inconsistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, prompting the addition of new mechanisms to the models. We show that this interpretation was wrong, by demonstrating that the neural spiking data, and the behavioural data are consistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, without positing additional mechanisms. Our approach succeeds by using the neural data to provide constraints on the cognitive model. Open questions remain about the locus of the link between certain elements of the cognitive models and the neurophysiology, and about the relationship between activity in cortical neurons identified with decision-making vs. activity in downstream areas more closely linked with motor effectors.

  4. Administrators' Decisions about Resource Allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, William E.; Folkins, John W.; Hakel, Milton D.; Kennell, Richard P.

    2011-01-01

    Do academic administrators make decisions about resource allocation differently depending on the discipline receiving the funding? Does an administrator's academic identity influence these decisions? This study explored those questions with a sample of 1,690 academic administrators at doctoral-research universities. Participants used fictional…

  5. Decision-making and neuroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Kalenscher

    2010-01-01

    Decision-making is the process of choosing one out of several alternatives. The study of decision-making is inherently multidisciplinary and can be approached from many different angles. Traditional accounts in economics and biology have a normative flavour and prescribe, rather than describe decisi

  6. TOOLS USED IN DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perez Bernabeu Elena

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Decision making is one of the important tasks of every manager. The process of taking decisions has to be based on knowledge. For optimizing this process some software solutions has been created. In this article we tried to summarize some of the features which exists in some software applications.

  7. Decision Dynamics in Group Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Han, Fangqiu; Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Gür, Izzeddin; Carlson, Jean M

    2016-01-01

    Identifying factors that affect human decision making and quantifying their influence remain essential and challenging tasks for the design and implementation of social and technological communication systems. We report results of a behavioral experiment involving decision making in the face of an impending natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, we characterize individual and group evacuation decision making influenced by several key factors, including the likelihood of the disaster, available shelter capacity, group size, and group decision protocol. Our results show that success in individual decision making is not a strong predictor of group performance. We use an artificial neural network trained on the collective behavior of subjects to predict individual and group outcomes. Overall model accuracy increases with the inclusion of a subject-specific performance parameter based on laboratory trials that captures individual differences. In parallel, we demonstrate that the social media activit...

  8. What Attracts Decision Makers' Attention?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Eric; Christiansen, John K.; Varnes, Claus J.

    2011-01-01

    /methodology/approach – The present analysis draws on insights from previous research into decision making in product and portfolio management and studies on organizational decision making. The authors frame why the attention of decision makers is so critical in complex situations. Data for this study were collected through direct...... portfolio meetings. The study seeks to investigate how managers allocate their attention and the role of different factors for their attention. Observations also make it possible to compare prior research and expectations with the actual observed behavior of decision makers. Design......Purpose – Managers' attention is a scarce resource in complex innovation settings. Prior research on the factors to which managers pay attention is mostly based on surveys. The present study aims to address the need for knowledge about the behavior of decision makers based on observations from...

  9. Decision criteria in PSA applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, J.E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Rosqvist, T.; Simola, K. [VTT Automation (Finland)

    2001-11-01

    Along with the adoption of risk informed decision making principles, the need for formal probabilistic decision rule or criteria has been risen. However, there are many practical and theoretical problems in the application of probabilistic criteria. One has to think what is the proper way to apply probabilistic rules together with deterministic ones and how the criteria are weighted with respect to each other. In this report, we approach the above questions from the decision theoretic point of view. We give a short review of the most well known probabilistic criteria, and discuss examples of their use. We present a decision analytic framework for evaluating the criteria, and we analyse how the different criteria behave under incompleteness or uncertainty of the PSA model. As the conclusion of our analysis we give recommendations on the application of the criteria in different decision situations. (au)

  10. Four lessons in adaptive leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Useem, Michael

    2010-11-01

    The armed services have been in the business of leadership development much longer than the corporate world has. Today's military leaders need tools and techniques to face a fast-changing and unpredictable type of enemy--so the armed services train their officers in ways that build a culture of readiness and commitment. Business leaders need to foster an adaptive culture to survive and succeed, given that they, too, face unprecedented uncertainty--and new types of competitors. Michael Useem and his colleagues at the Wharton School incorporate exposure to military leadership into MBA and executive MBA programs. Highlights include direct contact in the classroom with leaders in the U.S. Army, the U.S. Marine Corps, and the Department of Defense, along with field-training exercises and battlefield visits. The programs are designed to help students connect viscerally to essential leadership lessons. Four are featured in the article: Meet the troops. Creating a personal link is crucial to leading people in challenging times. Make decisions. Making good and timely calls is the crux of leadership. Mission first. Focus on common purpose and eschew personal gain. Convey strategic intent. Make the objectives clear, but give people the freedom to execute on them in their own way.

  11. Time to decision: the drivers of innovation adoption decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciganek, Andrew Paul; (Dave) Haseman, William; Ramamurthy, K.

    2014-03-01

    Organisations desire timeliness. Timeliness facilitates a better responsiveness to changes in an organisation's external environment to either attain or maintain competitiveness. Despite its importance, decision timeliness has not been explicitly examined. Decision timeliness is measured in this study as the time taken to commit to a decision. The research objective is to identify the drivers of decision timeliness in the context of adopting service-oriented architecture (SOA), an innovation for enterprise computing. A research model rooted in the technology-organisation-environment (TOE) framework is proposed and tested with data collected in a large-scale study. The research variables have been examined before in the context of adoption, but their applicability to the timeliness of innovation decision-making has not received much attention and their salience is unclear. The results support multiple hypothesised relationships, including the finding that a risk-oriented organisational culture as well as normative and coercive pressures accelerates decision timeliness. Top management support as well as the traditional innovation attributes (compatibility, relative advantage and complexity/ease-of-use) were not found to be significant when examining their influence on decision timeliness, which appears inconsistent with generally accepted knowledge and deserves further examination.

  12. Dynamic multimedia stream adaptation and rate control for heterogeneous networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SZWABE Andrzej; SCHORR Andreas; HAUCK Franz J.; KASSLER Andreas J.

    2006-01-01

    Dynamic adaptation of multimedia content is seen as an important feature of next generation networks and pervasive systems enabling terminals and applications to adapt to changes in e.g. context, access network, and available Quality-of-Service(QoS) due to mobility of users, devices or sessions. We present the architecture of a multimedia stream adaptation service which enables communication between terminals having heterogeneous hardware and software capabilities and served by heterogeneous networks. The service runs on special content adaptation nodes which can be placed at any location within the network. The flexible structure of our architecture allows using a variety of different adaptation engines. A generic transcoding engine is used to change the codec of streams. An MPEG-21 Digital Item Adaptation (DIA) based transformation engine allows adjusting the data rate of scalable media streams. An intelligent decision-taking engine implements adaptive flow control which takes into account current network QoS parameters and congestion information. Measurements demonstrate the quality gains achieved through adaptive congestion control mechanisms under conditions typical for a heterogeneous network.

  13. Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Drought is part of the normal climate variability in the Great Plains and Intermountain Western United States, but recent severe droughts along with climate change projections have increased the interest and need for better understanding of drought science and decision making. The purpose of this study is to understand how the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) federal land and resource managers and their stakeholders (i.e., National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Indian Affairs and tribes, among others) are experiencing and dealing with drought in their landscapes. The Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) project is part of a new DOI-sponsored North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) crosscutting science initiative on drought across the Center's three foundational science areas: 1. physical climate, 2. ecosystems impacts and responses, and 3. human adaptation and decision making. The overarching goal is to learn more about drought within the DOI public lands and resource management in order to contribute to both the NC CSC regional science as well as providing managers and other decision makers with the most salient, credible, and legitimate research to support land and resource management decisions. Here we will present the project approach along with some initial insights learned from the research to date along with its utility for climate adaptation.

  14. Differences in decision-making development between expert and novice invasion game players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz del Campo, David Gutierrez; Gonzalez Villora, Sixto; Garcia Lopez, Luis M; Mitchell, Stephen

    2011-06-01

    This cross-sectional study investigated the differences between young expert soccer players' (n = 55) and novice players' (n = 74) decision-making ability during performance of invasion games (ages: 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, and 13-14 years). Decision-making ability was assessed in invasion games that were appropriately modified for age and expertise. Games were modified to meet the developmental needs and previous learning of the participants, so interference between motor execution and decision making was minimized. Game performance was videotaped, and measures of cognitive components were developed from observational analysis. Decision making was measured at two levels: (a) decision making restricted to the selection of the technical-tactical skills (passing, moving with the ball, getting free, marking, tackling, double teaming, and interception) and (b) decision making in the adaptation to the tactical context of the game. Expert players remained superior in decision-making ability when variation in skill execution was controlled. Decision-making differences between levels of expertise decreased with age with regard to the first level (skill selection) and increased with age in relation to the second level (tactical-context adaptation). Findings are discussed in terms of implications for instructional focus and task design.

  15. Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruin, Karianne de

    2012-11-01

    Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

  16. Ecological Rationality: A Framework for Understanding and Aiding the Aging Decision Maker

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui eMata

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. The concept of ecological rationality focuses the study of cognition on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people’s decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environments? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into diminished decision performance. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision ecology in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

  17. Public Decisions and Culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Mutascu

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available The way in which the social subjects take decisions, the interactions established between these, the web of social institutions and rules, the architecture of the power relationships between the various “points of social coagulation” have as a foundation a complex set of determinants, in which the “pure” economic factors have an important, but not unique role. Thus, this paper intends to draft a possible analytical framework, capable of allowing the stress of some existing connections between the cultural variables, the social actions and the role of the public power. Heavy indebted to OLSON and NOZICK, the starting point is made out by a version of the mandate theory, within the way in which society, as a whole, as well as its individual components, delegates a certain set of social responsibilities to the public authorities, based on some social utility functions, which include the characteristics of the dominant cultural model. Part I of the paper deals with the elements of the theoretical foundation, elements resumed by a set of critical postulates and a special definition of state as the dominant agency in a social space and also of the negotiation/parallel associations. Part II is an attempt to examine some empirical evidences in the favor of some results derived from this foundation. The main conclusion of the paper could be resumed by the idea that trying to describe the interactions between state and society without taking into the account the characteristics of the cultural paradigm is equivalent to talk about Hamlet without mentioning the prince of Denmark.

  18. Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

    2013-12-01

    Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi. PMID:24112643

  19. [Cellular adaptation and cancerogenesis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Torre, F; Silpigni, A; Tomasello, R; Picone, G S; La Torre, I; Aragona, M

    1998-06-01

    The paper describes the main adaptive mechanisms involved in the carcinogenic process. As a result of the action of carcinogenic agents (physical, chemical, biological), and in relation to the functional status of the affected cells, a number of systems are triggered off: detoxification and conjugation systems, the metabolisation of the said agents, DNA repairing enzymes, increased shock proteins (HSP), the induction of clonal proliferation. All these systems are valuable to the survival of the body and the species and culminate in the apoptosis of damaged cells as the last attempt at adaptation of a social kind for the good of the body. When these compensation mechanisms prove ineffective, imprecise or are exceeded by cell adaptive capacity, the resulting structural and functional alterations trigger off (induction) a very long process which often lasts between one and two thirds of the body's life, in various stages, multistep and multifactorial: this neoplastic transformation leads to a purposeless, egoistic, anarchic proliferation of cells which wish to survive at all costs, even to the detriment of the body of which they form part. Following the exhaustion of cell adaptive defences, there is an accumulation of additional genetic alterations (promotion and progression), the cells become manifestly neoplastic and continue their egoistic adaptation, according to the laws of natural selection: the cells which survive are those which adapt best to the hostile environment of the host's body, which are unaffected by proliferation control mechanisms (contact inhibition, differentiation factors, apoptosis, etc.), which make the best of the growth factors present in their microenvironment, which accomplish the so-called decathlon of the metastatization process, namely acquiring new capacities which can overcome the basal membrane, invade tissues to which they are attracted and continue to proliferate. Manifestly neoplastic cells become not self at a later stage

  20. Solar tomography adaptive optics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Deqing; Zhu, Yongtian; Zhang, Xi; Dou, Jiangpei; Zhao, Gang

    2014-03-10

    Conventional solar adaptive optics uses one deformable mirror (DM) and one guide star for wave-front sensing, which seriously limits high-resolution imaging over a large field of view (FOV). Recent progress toward multiconjugate adaptive optics indicates that atmosphere turbulence induced wave-front distortion at different altitudes can be reconstructed by using multiple guide stars. To maximize the performance over a large FOV, we propose a solar tomography adaptive optics (TAO) system that uses tomographic wave-front information and uses one DM. We show that by fully taking advantage of the knowledge of three-dimensional wave-front distribution, a classical solar adaptive optics with one DM can provide an extra performance gain for high-resolution imaging over a large FOV in the near infrared. The TAO will allow existing one-deformable-mirror solar adaptive optics to deliver better performance over a large FOV for high-resolution magnetic field investigation, where solar activities occur in a two-dimensional field up to 60'', and where the near infrared is superior to the visible in terms of magnetic field sensitivity.