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Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. Peircean diagrams of time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can...... be done in terms of analogies and metaphors. In particular, it is attractive to make use of Peirce's diagrams by means of which various kinds of conceptual experimentation can be carried out. This paper investigates how Peircean diagrams can be used within the study of time. In particular, we discuss 1......) the topological properties of time, 2) the implicative structure in tense logic, 3) the notions of open future and branching time models, and finally 4) tenselogical alternatives to branching time models....

  3. A Peircean Inspired Typology of Print Advertising

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Christian; Sørensen, Bent

    2010-01-01

    types and is developed on the basis of an analysis of 150 quarto-, half-, and full-page advertisements from the Danish morning paper Berlingske Tidende. There are basically two traditions in advertising research — a semiotic one and a cognitive one. But none of these traditions have been used to suggest...... a possible relation between composition and the effects of comprehension, as the conceptual foundation for a categorization seems, as does the Peircean variant of semiotics, to be very limited in advertising research as such. Generally seen, the purpose of the development of the present categorization...... is to show how a Peircean semiotic approach can contribute to advertising research, including ongoing cognitive research in the advertising tradition....

  4. DECISION STRATEGIES AND COGNITIVE ADAPTATIONS TO ECOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poleszczuk Jan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I discuss the concept of adaptive rationality. I present a simple model of ecology and the set of decision rules. The basic structure of the process of cognitive adaptation to ecology is described as a structure comprising (1 perceptual space, (2 a function valuating perceived items, (3 a set of available decision rules and (4 the adaptation process - identification and selection of the best strategies in given ecological conditions. The presented model of ecosystem allows a conclusion that completely opposite strategies may be compatible with the assumption of adaptive rationality.

  5. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  6. Decision-level adaptation in motion perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, George; Sharman, Rebecca J

    2015-12-01

    Prolonged exposure to visual stimuli causes a bias in observers' responses to subsequent stimuli. Such adaptation-induced biases are usually explained in terms of changes in the relative activity of sensory neurons in the visual system which respond selectively to the properties of visual stimuli. However, the bias could also be due to a shift in the observer's criterion for selecting one response rather than the alternative; adaptation at the decision level of processing rather than the sensory level. We investigated whether adaptation to implied motion is best attributed to sensory-level or decision-level bias. Three experiments sought to isolate decision factors by changing the nature of the participants' task while keeping the sensory stimulus unchanged. Results showed that adaptation-induced bias in reported stimulus direction only occurred when the participants' task involved a directional judgement, and disappeared when adaptation was measured using a non-directional task (reporting where motion was present in the display, regardless of its direction). We conclude that adaptation to implied motion is due to decision-level bias, and that a propensity towards such biases may be widespread in sensory decision-making.

  7. Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

  8. Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

    2015-12-01

    This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

  9. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

    2016-06-21

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

  10. Toward an Expanded Definition of Adaptive Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.

    1997-01-01

    Uses the lifespan, life-space model to examine the definition of adaptive decision making. Reviews the existing definition of adaptive decision making as "rational" decision making and offers alternate perspectives on decision making with an emphasis on the implications of using the model. Makes suggestions for future theory, research,…

  11. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  12. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byron K Williams

    Full Text Available Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both. There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and

  13. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  14. Understanding adaptation decisions in Morocco's plains and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... In Morocco, the threat posed by climate change has been recognized for some time by decision-makers at national and provincial levels. Erratic rainfall, an overall decline in precipitation, and recurring heat waves are creating chronic water shortages in the agricultural areas that support 80% of the ...

  15. A Peircean approach to ‘information’ and its relationship with Bateson’s and Jablonka’s ideas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Queiroz, João; Emmeche, Claus; El-Hani, Charbel Niño

    2008-01-01

    The Peircean semiotic approach to information that we developed in previous papers raises several new questions, and shows both similarities and differences with regard to other accounts of information. We do not intend to present here any exhaustive discussion about the relationships between our...

  16. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  17. The adaptive use of recognition in group decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kämmer, Juliane E; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Reimer, Torsten; Schermuly, Carsten C

    2014-06-01

    Applying the framework of ecological rationality, the authors studied the adaptivity of group decision making. In detail, they investigated whether groups apply decision strategies conditional on their composition in terms of task-relevant features. The authors focused on the recognition heuristic, so the task-relevant features were the validity of the group members' recognition and knowledge, which influenced the potential performance of group strategies. Forty-three three-member groups performed an inference task in which they had to infer which of two German companies had the higher market capitalization. Results based on the choice data support the hypothesis that groups adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. Time constraints had no effect on strategy use but did have an effect on the proportions of different types of arguments. Possible mechanisms underlying the adaptive use of recognition in group decision making are discussed. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  18. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-01-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

  19. Adaptation pathways: ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd A. Ontl; Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Anthony W. D’Amato; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon

    2018-01-01

    Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating...

  20. 51 climate change perception, awareness and adaptation decision ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2 Environment Department, University of York, York, UK. Corresponding author: ... The perception of climate change and adaptation decision of forest .... well as the broader characteristics of the production system and ... mangrove forest, Guinea savanna, montane forest ...... forecastsand regional climate-risk management.

  1. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  2. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  3. Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Alqerm, Ismail

    2014-05-01

    Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.

  4. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian

    response impacts in the context of hydrological extremes are considered while the added intangible values (e.g. recreational amenities due to a nice blue-green neighbourhood) of adaptation options are often ignored or underestimated. In order to facilitate the development and implementation of water...... the benefits of provision of positive environmental values and the preservation of water resources. It is found that neglecting intangible values in climate adaptation assessment can easily bias the decision making; the reframed approach hence provide an important tool for assessment of additional benefits...... and costs of such innovative solutions. The thesis points towards an integrated framework for urban drainage adaptation design considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits and costs. The case studies show how the proposed framework can be utilized to manage the anticipated climate change risks...

  5. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  6. On the Road to Holistic Decision Making in Adaptive Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahsa Emami-Taba

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.

  7. The rationality of intuition: Studying adaptive heuristics in project decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    This paper presents a research agenda for studying adaptive heuristics in project decision making. Project decisions are a potentially fruitful research field for adaptive heuristics. These decisions typically take place under time and information constraints, with high complexity and ambiguity...... - environments in which adaptive heuristics typically strive as effective decision tools. Yet, project decisions as a research topic introduce challenges that are currently not considered in the main body of adaptive heuristics research: the issue of group decision making, and the element of an unpredictable...... the limitations of these methods for project decision-making, and suggests alternative methodologies, suitable to cope with group decision-making and irreducible uncertainty....

  8. Adaptation research meets adaptation decision-making. Second Nordic international conference on climate change adaption. Programme and abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Nearly two years have passed since a small team of researchers began a new chapter in Nordic co-operation on climate change by organising a conference in Stockholm, Sweden. The conference, entitled Climate Adaptation in the Nordic Countries - Science, Practice, Policy, co-ordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute and hosted by Stockholm University in November 2010, was the first of its kind in the Nordic region. Since the European Commission adopted its White Paper on adaptation to climate change in 2009, many of that document's 33 actions have been implemented, a climate change adaptation platform, Climate-ADAPT, was launched at the European Environment Agency in March this year, and just a week before this conference the Commission concluded a public consultation of stakeholders and experts in member states designed to feed into the preparation of a European Union adaptation strategy. The 2012 conference therefore presents an ideal opportunity to take stock of ongoing efforts and to consider how adaptation research efforts are keeping pace with policy demands as well as the needs of public and private decision-makers operating at a range of scales. It brings together researchers, public and private decision- makers, as well as those who plan and realize adaptation plans. Session themes include, among others: national and local adaptation plans, climate portals and climate services, adaptation in developing countries, legal aspects of adaptation, economic appraisal of adaptation, analysing and handling risk and uncertainty, urban planning and scenarios. The contributors have very diverse backgrounds, ranging from biosciences to social sciences, economics to geo-sciences, and engineering to architecture. Interest in climate change adaptation in the Nordic region is clearly high, with over 70% of our participants drawn from the five Nordic countries, but the conference has also managed to attract participation from further afield, with registrations

  9. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  10. Computerized Adaptive Test vs. decision trees: Development of a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado-Gomez, D; Baca-Garcia, E; Aguado, D; Courtet, P; Lopez-Castroman, J

    2016-12-01

    Several Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) have been proposed to facilitate assessments in mental health. These tests are built in a standard way, disregarding useful and usually available information not included in the assessment scales that could increase the precision and utility of CATs, such as the history of suicide attempts. Using the items of a previously developed scale for suicidal risk, we compared the performance of a standard CAT and a decision tree in a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior. We included the history of past suicide attempts as a class for the separation of patients in the decision tree. The decision tree needed an average of four items to achieve a similar accuracy than a standard CAT with nine items. The accuracy of the decision tree, obtained after 25 cross-validations, was 81.4%. A shortened test adapted for the separation of suicidal and non-suicidal patients was developed. CATs can be very useful tools for the assessment of suicidal risk. However, standard CATs do not use all the information that is available. A decision tree can improve the precision of the assessment since they are constructed using a priori information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Locally adaptive decision in detection of clustered microcalcifications in mammograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainz de Cea, María V.; Nishikawa, Robert M.; Yang, Yongyi

    2018-02-01

    In computer-aided detection or diagnosis of clustered microcalcifications (MCs) in mammograms, the performance often suffers from not only the presence of false positives (FPs) among the detected individual MCs but also large variability in detection accuracy among different cases. To address this issue, we investigate a locally adaptive decision scheme in MC detection by exploiting the noise characteristics in a lesion area. Instead of developing a new MC detector, we propose a decision scheme on how to best decide whether a detected object is an MC or not in the detector output. We formulate the individual MCs as statistical outliers compared to the many noisy detections in a lesion area so as to account for the local image characteristics. To identify the MCs, we first consider a parametric method for outlier detection, the Mahalanobis distance detector, which is based on a multi-dimensional Gaussian distribution on the noisy detections. We also consider a non-parametric method which is based on a stochastic neighbor graph model of the detected objects. We demonstrated the proposed decision approach with two existing MC detectors on a set of 188 full-field digital mammograms (95 cases). The results, evaluated using free response operating characteristic (FROC) analysis, showed a significant improvement in detection accuracy by the proposed outlier decision approach over traditional thresholding (the partial area under the FROC curve increased from 3.95 to 4.25, p-value  FPs at a given sensitivity level. The proposed adaptive decision approach could not only reduce the number of FPs in detected MCs but also improve case-to-case consistency in detection.

  12. What is adaptive about adaptive decision making? A parallel constraint satisfaction account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glöckner, Andreas; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Jekel, Marc

    2014-12-01

    There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns - as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  14. Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buede, Dennis M.; Mahoney, Suzanne; Ezell, Barry; Lathrop, John

    2012-01-01

    Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

  15. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  16. Complexity in organizations and environment - adaptive changes and adaptive decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Fabac

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible. In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.

  17. Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

    2013-11-01

    While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in

  18. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  19. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  20. "The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Robert P

    2017-04-01

    This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best 2 ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  1. Some Peircean approaches to organizational communication. Formal and informal relations in a museum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos González Pérez

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The main objectives of this work point to an analysis of internal communication processes of a natural science museum of the city of La Plata (Buenos Aires province to explain the relationship between the formal and informal instances from some approaches to the Peircean semiotics perspective. Other experiences are also taken into account in order to consider different ways of museum´s materialization. We believe that the contribution of this semiotic view is enriching because of its triadic sign scheme and because it allows to regard nonlinear complex processes related to the cultural aspects of museums, determined by a given historical moment. The research in the theoretical directions of the authors who are included in this perspective, enables us to approach the complexity of communication processes, given that all communication is done through signs, and signs can be interpreted in one or another way and can grow and generate a more developed set of signs. We resort to specific operations of visual image semiotics to analyze the signaling in museums, and to specific operations of symbolic semiotics to analyze the discourse of interviews. Through these operations we can achieve explanations about what kind of valuation does the museum´s stuff perform about the formal communication processes and also as to the informal spaces which complement them. We can also state that some problems in the organizational structure must be resolved (as an important segmentation identified in the named museum in order to implement a participative communication model. We identify some aspects related to extension strategies, to the studies of public, and to the relationship that the museum at study has with Argentine aboriginal communities, and likewise aspects that the organization values in the present and wants to project into the future.

  2. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haynie, James M

    2005-01-01

    ..." cognitive strategies to promote cognitive adaptability, which I define as the ability to appropriately evolve individual decision-frameworks in concert with a changing and uncertain environment...

  3. Toolbox for uncertainty; Introduction of adaptive heuristics as strategies for project decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    2017-01-01

    This article presents adaptive heuristics as an alternative approach to navigate uncertainty in project decision-making. Adaptive heuristic are a class of simple decision strategies that have received only scant attention in project studies. Yet, they can strive in contexts of high uncertainty...... they are ‘ecologically rational’. The model builds on the individual definitions of ecological rationality and organizes them according to two types of uncertainty (‘knowable’ and ‘unknowable’). Decision problems and heuristics are furthermore grouped by decision task (choice and judgement). The article discusses...... and limited information, which are the typical project decision context. This article develops a conceptual model that supports a systematic connection between adaptive heuristics and project decisions. Individual adaptive heuristics succeed only in specific decision environments, in which...

  4. Applications of decision theory to computer-based adaptive instructional systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper considers applications of decision theory to the problem of instructional decision-making in computer-based adaptive instructional systems, using the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System (MAIS) as an example. The first section indicates how the problem of selecting the appropriate

  5. Adaptive decision making in multi-stakeholder retail planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, I.I.

    2011-01-01

    The decision where to locate new retail facilities is increasingly more a multi-stakeholder decision instead of a single-actor decision. In the past, the Dutch Government had a strong hand in determining the program and location for new shopping centres. Since the introduction of the newest national

  6. Towards context adaptive privacy decisions in ubiquitous computing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaub, Florian; Könings, Bastian; Weber, M.; Kargl, Frank

    2012-01-01

    In ubiquitous systems control of privacy settings will be increasingly difficult due to the pervasive nature of sensing and communication capabilities. We identify challenges for privacy decisions in ubiquitous systems and propose a system for in situ privacy decision support. When context changes

  7. Adaptive Automation Based on Air Traffic Controller Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJtsma (Student TU Delft), Martijn; Borst, C.; Mercado Velasco, G.A.; Mulder, M.; van Paassen, M.M.; Tsang, P.S.; Vidulich, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Through smart scheduling and triggering of automation support, adaptive automation has the potential to balance air traffic controller workload. The challenge in the design of adaptive automation systems is to decide how and when the automation should provide support. This paper describes the design

  8. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

  9. Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance...

  10. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2017-01-01

    Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

  11. Adaptive spectrum decision framework for heterogeneous dynamic spectrum access networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Masonta, M

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Spectrum decision is the ability of a cognitive radio (CR) system to select the best available spectrum band to satisfy dynamic spectrum access network (DSAN) users¿ quality of service (QoS) requirements without causing harmful interference...

  12. Adaptive testing for making unidimensional and multidimensional classification decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groen, M.M.

    2014-01-01

    Computerized adaptive tests (CATs) were originally developed to obtain an efficient estimate of the examinee’s ability, but they can also be used to classify the examinee into one of two or more levels (e.g. master/non-master). These computerized classification tests have the advantage that they can

  13. Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

    2015-05-01

    Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Memory Effect on Adaptive Decision Making with a Chaotic Semiconductor Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takatomo Mihana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effect of a memory parameter on the performance of adaptive decision making using a tug-of-war method with the chaotic oscillatory dynamics of a semiconductor laser. We experimentally generate chaotic temporal waveforms of the semiconductor laser with optical feedback and apply them for adaptive decision making in solving a multiarmed bandit problem that aims at maximizing the total reward from slot machines whose hit probabilities are dynamically switched. We examine the dependence of making correct decisions on different values of the memory parameter. The degree of adaptivity is found to be enhanced with a smaller memory parameter, whereas the degree of convergence to the correct decision is higher for a larger memory parameter. The relations among the adaptivity, environmental changes, and the difficulties of the problem are also discussed considering the requirement of past decisions. This examination of ultrafast adaptive decision making highlights the importance of memorizing past events and paves the way for future photonic intelligence.

  15. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  16. 2D/3D video content adaptation decision engine based on content classification and user assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Rui; Andrade, M. T.

    2017-07-01

    Multimedia adaptation depends on several factors, such as the content itself, the consumption device and its characteristics, the transport and access networks and the user. An adaptation decision engine, in order to provide the best possible Quality of Experience to a user, needs to have information about all variables that may influence its decision. For the aforementioned factors, we implement content classification, define device classes, consider limited bandwidth scenarios and categorize user preferences based on a subjective quality evaluation test. The results of these actions generate vital information to pass to the adaptation decision engine so that its operation may provide the indication of the most suitable adaptation to perform that delivers the best possible outcome for the user under the existing constraints.

  17. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

  18. Regret and adaptive decision making in young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Eimear; McCormack, Teresa; Beck, Sarah R; Feeney, Aidan

    2015-07-01

    In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O'Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (Child Development, 85 (2014) 1995-2010) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice the next time around. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret and whether it was the experience of this emotion, rather than the ability to anticipate it, that affected decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6 or 7 years were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second issue was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however, even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions, feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome, they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Language Adaptive LVCSR Through Polyphone Decision Tree Specialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-08-01

    crossing rate. After cepstral mean subtraction a linear discriminant analysis 1Mandarin is given in character based error rate, Japanese in hiragana ...data. For this purpose we German GE 9173 71 132K 16.7 introduce a polyphone decision tree specialization method. Several Japanese JA 9096 108 212K...12.1 2. Multiple Languages German 11.8 61K 200 44.5 43 9.0 For our experiments we developed monolingual LVCSR sys- Japanese 10.0 22K 230 33.8 33 7.9

  20. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  1. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasoul Yousefpour

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1 take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2 evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.

  2. Weathering climate change. Some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, Samuel; Smith, Joel B.; Tol, Richard S.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones), precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations

  3. Would science serve decision-making to adapt the impact of climate change? Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation – scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gin-Rong Liu Peiwen Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We live in challenging times with a heightened sense of uncertainty and unpredictability. Climate change, with its impact on disruptive events as well as gradual trends, has been addressed in scientific studies and become increasingly important in policymaking. This rises up a great need on scientific integration and knowledge transformation. The Taiwan Integrated Research Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT is formed under this concern. Directing by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST, it carries a strong intention to explore and to conduct adequate knowledge of climate change and adaptation strategies for decision-making supports. The TaiCCAT highly recommends the approach of cross-disciplinary collaboration from environmental studies to adaptation governance. The result can therefore be more contributive to reflect the complexity of the changing world.

  4. Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

    2015-11-20

    The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

  5. Adaptive Training and Collective Decision Support Based on Man-Machine Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-02

    Based on Man -machine Interface The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not contrued as an...ADDRESS (ES) U.S. Army Research Office P.O. Box 12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 adaptive training, EEG, man -machine interface...non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Adaptive Training and Collective Decision Support Based on Man -machine Interface Report Title The existence of

  6. A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yueh eHsiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

  7. Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

    2010-12-01

    Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision

  8. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  9. Training support for Naturalistic Decision Making : Serious gaming for adaptive performance of military personnel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mun, Y.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Oprins, E.A.P.B.; Schraagen, J.M.C.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: For effective decision making in the 21st century where operational environments are complex and uncertain, there is a strong need for training support and its practical application to naturalistic, real-world settings. In this contribution, we focus on training of adaptive performance

  10. Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. DeCaro

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1 encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2 garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3 cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.

  11. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-01-30

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  12. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Bowen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  13. Preventing KPI Violations in Business Processes based on Decision Tree Learning and Proactive Runtime Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimka Karastoyanova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of business processes is measured and monitored in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs. If the monitoring results show that the KPI targets are violated, the underlying reasons have to be identified and the process should be adapted accordingly to address the violations. In this paper we propose an integrated monitoring, prediction and adaptation approach for preventing KPI violations of business process instances. KPIs are monitored continuously while the process is executed. Additionally, based on KPI measurements of historical process instances we use decision tree learning to construct classification models which are then used to predict the KPI value of an instance while it is still running. If a KPI violation is predicted, we identify adaptation requirements and adaptation strategies in order to prevent the violation.

  14. Adaptive management and environmental decision making. A case study application to water use planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Robin; Failing, Lee; Higgins, Paul

    2006-01-01

    Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive management approaches over time. However, the record of successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects the lack of an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on the insights of decision analysis, for evaluating the use of AM as a technique to improve environmental management decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans for more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, is introduced as a case-study example. The discussion emphasizes that decisions to adopt adaptive management strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across a variety of economic, environmental, and social objectives. As a result, adaptive management initiatives need to be carefully evaluated based on their merits relative to other alternatives. Within an AM framework, alternative experimental designs should be evaluated because the design of a preferred experiment involves choices among different levels of investment, the quality of available and desired future information, and different ecological, economic, and social risks. (author)

  15. Do adapted vignettes improve medical decision-making capacity for individuals with Alzheimer's disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thalén, Liv; Heimann Mühlenbock, Katarina; Almkvist, Ove; Eriksdotter, Maria; Sundström, Erik; Tallberg, Ing-Mari

    2017-12-01

    Medical decision-making capacity (MDC) is known to decline in individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The vignette method uses hypothetical information as a prerequisite for measuring the capacity to make well-informed decisions to clinical trials. Our aim was to investigate if adapted vignettes can help individuals with mild AD to assimilate information, make decisions and express them in an understandable way, compared to corresponding decisions based on linguistically more demanding vignettes, as measured by the Swedish Linguistic Instrument for Medical Decision-making (LIMD). Two vignettes from LIMD were altered linguistically with the aim to facilitate understanding for individuals with AD. An experimental within-subject design was used to study the influence on MDC of readability (original/adapted vignettes) and content (two different clinical trials). We included 24 patients with mild AD in this prospective study, which read all four vignettes along with a few other tests. This allowed us to investigate the association between MDC and cognitive function. Adapted vignettes did not yield significant differences regarding MDC as compared with original vignettes using a two-way repeated measures analysis of variance. A difference was found between the two clinical trials where LIMD score was significantly higher for Kidney disease than hypertension vignettes. Our results indicate that adapted vignettes may not improve MDC for individuals with mild AD. MDC was affected by which clinical trial the vignettes regarded, which implies that other factors affecting MDC need to be investigated, like length of text and vocabulary used. © 2017 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2015-01-01

    We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating...... production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time...... rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...

  17. Keys to success for data-driven decision making: Lessons from participatory monitoring and collaborative adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent years have witnessed a call for evidence-based decisions in conservation and natural resource management, including data-driven decision-making. Adaptive management (AM) is one prevalent model for integrating scientific data into decision-making, yet AM has faced numerous challenges and limit...

  18. Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

    2013-01-01

    Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to

  19. Development of decision support system for employee selection using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ‘Azzam Abdullah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of children day care is increasing from year to year. Children day care is categorized as service industry that help parents in caring and educate children. This type of service industry plays a substitute for the family at certain hours, usually during work hours. The common problems in this industry is related to the employee performance. Most of employees have a less understanding about the whole job. Some employees only perform a routine task, i.e. feeding, cleaning and putting the child to sleep. The role in educating children is not performed as well as possible. Therefore, the employee selection is an important process to solve a children day care problem. An effective decision support system is required to optimize the employee selection process. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS is used to develop the decision support system for employee selection process. The data used to build the system is the historical data of employee selection process in children day care. The data shows the characteristic of job applicant that qualified and not qualified. From that data, the system can perform a learning process and give the right decision. The system is able to provide the right decision with an error of 0,00016249. It means that the decision support system that developed using ANFIS can give the right recommendation for employee selection process.

  20. Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Daniel Lane; Shima Beigzadeh; Richard Moll

    2017-01-01

    This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities.The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental,economic,social,and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat.The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies.The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies.The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown,Prince Edward Island,Canada.The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown-facing increased frequency of severe storms,storm surges,and sea-level rise-provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment.This research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project "Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities:Canada and the Caribbean" sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.

  1. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli L. Larson

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

  3. Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

    2017-05-03

    Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

  4. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulin P

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Paule Poulin,1 Lea Austen,1 Catherine M Scott,2 Michelle Poulin,1 Nadine Gall,2 Judy Seidel,3 René Lafrenière1 1Department of Surgery, 2Knowledge Management, 3Public Health Innovation and Decision Support, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada Purpose: Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods: We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada, for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1 development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2 education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3 evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4 joint evaluation via retreats, 5 synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6 evaluation of the adaptation process. Results: Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion: Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence

  5. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  6. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Aenishaenslin

    Full Text Available Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or

  7. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  8. Decision Trees Predicting Tumor Shrinkage for Head and Neck Cancer: Implications for Adaptive Radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surucu, Murat; Shah, Karan K; Mescioglu, Ibrahim; Roeske, John C; Small, William; Choi, Mehee; Emami, Bahman

    2016-02-01

    To develop decision trees predicting for tumor volume reduction in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer using pretreatment clinical and pathological parameters. Forty-eight patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the nasopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were rescanned at a median dose of 37.8 Gy and replanned to account for anatomical changes. The percentages of gross tumor volume (GTV) change from initial to rescan computed tomography (CT; %GTVΔ) were calculated. Two decision trees were generated to correlate %GTVΔ in primary and nodal volumes with 14 characteristics including age, gender, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), site, human papilloma virus (HPV) status, tumor grade, primary tumor growth pattern (endophytic/exophytic), tumor/nodal/group stages, chemotherapy regimen, and primary, nodal, and total GTV volumes in the initial CT scan. The C4.5 Decision Tree induction algorithm was implemented. The median %GTVΔ for primary, nodal, and total GTVs was 26.8%, 43.0%, and 31.2%, respectively. Type of chemotherapy, age, primary tumor growth pattern, site, KPS, and HPV status were the most predictive parameters for primary %GTVΔ decision tree, whereas for nodal %GTVΔ, KPS, site, age, primary tumor growth pattern, initial primary GTV, and total GTV volumes were predictive. Both decision trees had an accuracy of 88%. There can be significant changes in primary and nodal tumor volumes during the course of H&N chemoradiotherapy. Considering the proposed decision trees, radiation oncologists can select patients predicted to have high %GTVΔ, who would theoretically gain the most benefit from adaptive radiotherapy, in order to better use limited clinical resources. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Adaptive lattice decision-feedback equalizers - Their performance and application to time-variant multipath channnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, F.; Proakis, J. G.

    1985-04-01

    This paper presents two types of adaptive lattice decision-feedback equalizers (DFE), the least squares (LS) lattice DFE and the gradient lattice DFE. Their performance has been investigated on both time-invariant and time-variant channels through computer simulations and compared to other kinds of equalizers. An analysis of the self-noise and tracking characteristics of the LS DFE and the DFE employing the Widrow-Hoff least mean square adaptive algorithm (LMS DFE) are also given. The analysis and simulation results show that the LS lattice DFE has the faster initial convergence rate, while the gradient lattice DFE is computationally more efficient. The main advantages of the lattice DFE's are their numerical stability, their computational efficiency, the flexibility to change their length, and their excellent capabilities for tracking rapidly time-variant channels.

  10. Training complexity is not decisive factor for improving adaptation to visual sensory conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Pu, Fang; Li, Shuyu; Li, Yan; Li, Deyu; Fan, Yubo

    2012-01-01

    Ground-based preflight training utilizing unusual visual stimuli is useful for decreasing the susceptibility to space motion sickness (SMS). The effectiveness of the sensorimotor adaptation training is affected by the training tasks, but what kind of task is more effective remains unknown. Whether the complexity is the decisive factor to consider for designing the training and if other factors are more important need to be analyzed. The results from the analysis can help to optimize the preflight training tasks for astronauts. Twenty right-handed subjects were asked to draw the right path of 45° rotated maze before and after 30 min training. Subjects wore an up-down reversing prism spectacle in test and training sessions. Two training tasks were performed: drawing the right path of the horizontal maze (complex task but with different orientation feature) and drawing the L-shape lines (easy task with same orientation feature). The error rate and the executing time were measured during the test. Paired samples t test was used to compare the effects of the two training tasks. After each training, the error rate and the executing time were significantly decreased. However, the training effectiveness of the easy task was better as the test was finished more quickly and accurately. The complexity is not always the decisive factor for designing the adaptation training task, e.g. the orientation feature is more important in this study. In order to accelerate the adaptation and to counter SMS, the task for astronauts preflight adaptation training could be simple activities with the key features.

  11. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  12. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  13. A P2P Botnet detection scheme based on decision tree and adaptive multilayer neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alauthaman, Mohammad; Aslam, Nauman; Zhang, Li; Alasem, Rafe; Hossain, M A

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, Botnets have been adopted as a popular method to carry and spread many malicious codes on the Internet. These malicious codes pave the way to execute many fraudulent activities including spam mail, distributed denial-of-service attacks and click fraud. While many Botnets are set up using centralized communication architecture, the peer-to-peer (P2P) Botnets can adopt a decentralized architecture using an overlay network for exchanging command and control data making their detection even more difficult. This work presents a method of P2P Bot detection based on an adaptive multilayer feed-forward neural network in cooperation with decision trees. A classification and regression tree is applied as a feature selection technique to select relevant features. With these features, a multilayer feed-forward neural network training model is created using a resilient back-propagation learning algorithm. A comparison of feature set selection based on the decision tree, principal component analysis and the ReliefF algorithm indicated that the neural network model with features selection based on decision tree has a better identification accuracy along with lower rates of false positives. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by conducting experiments on real network traffic datasets. In these experiments, an average detection rate of 99.08 % with false positive rate of 0.75 % was observed.

  14. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David N. Yates

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.

  15. A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F.; Haven, E.; Khrennikov, A.

    2017-10-01

    We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  16. A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F; Haven, E; Khrennikov, A

    2017-11-13

    We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  18. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  19. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

    2013-01-01

    Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences.

  20. Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

    2016-12-01

    Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

  1. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

  2. The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

  3. European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Carina; Gonçalves, Ana Ribeiro; Pasion, Rita; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Paiva, Tiago Oliveira; Melo E Castro, Joana; Barbosa, Fernando; Martins, Isabel Pavão; Marques-Teixeira, João

    2018-03-01

    Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are "morally acceptable" elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

  4. European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carina Fernandes

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are “morally acceptable” elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

  5. Adaptation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire to Brazilian Portuguese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotrena, Charles; Branco, Laura Damiani; Fonseca, Rochele Paz

    2018-03-01

    Decision making (DM) is among the most important abilities for everyday functioning. However, the most widely used measures of DM come from behavioral paradigms, whose ecological validity and standalone use has been criticized in the literature. Though these issues could be addressed by the use of DM questionnaires as a complementary assessment method, no such instruments have been validated for use in Brazilian Portuguese. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct the translation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (MDMQ) for use in a Brazilian population. The adaptation of the MDMQ involved the following steps: translation, back-translation, expert review and pilot study. These steps were followed by factor analysis and internal consistency measurements, which led to the exclusion of 4 items from the scale. The 18-item version of the MDMQ was then administered to a validation sample consisting of healthy adults, as well as patients with bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). The instrument displayed good internal consistency, with the hypervigilance subscale showing the lowest, though still acceptable, Cronbach's alpha value. Its factor structure was comparable to that of the original MDMQ according to confirmatory factor analysis. Nevertheless, the MDMQ was sensitive to both depression severity and the presence of MDD and BD, both of which are known to have an impact on DM ability. The version of the MDMQ produced in the present study may be an important addition to neuropsychological assessment batteries with a focus on DM and related abilities.

  6. Adaptive Management for Decision Making at the Program and Project Levels of the Missouri River Recovery Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thom, Ronald M.; Anderson, Michael G.; Tyre, Drew; Fleming, Craig A.

    2009-02-28

    The paper, “Adaptive Management: Background for Stakeholders in the Missouri River Recovery Program,” introduced the concept of adaptive management (AM), its principles and how they relate to one-another, how AM is applied, and challenges for its implementation. This companion paper describes how the AM principles were applied to specific management actions within the Missouri River Recovery Program to facilitate understanding, decision-making, and stakeholder engagement. For context, we begin with a brief synopsis of the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) and the strategy for implementing adaptive management (AM) within the program; we finish with an example of AM in action within Phase I of the MRPP.

  7. The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

  8. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2011-01-01

    Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

  9. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  10. Adaptation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire to Brazilian Portuguese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Cotrena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Decision making (DM is among the most important abilities for everyday functioning. However, the most widely used measures of DM come from behavioral paradigms, whose ecological validity and standalone use has been criticized in the literature. Though these issues could be addressed by the use of DM questionnaires as a complementary assessment method, no such instruments have been validated for use in Brazilian Portuguese. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct the translation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (MDMQ for use in a Brazilian population. Methods: The adaptation of the MDMQ involved the following steps: translation, back-translation, expert review and pilot study. These steps were followed by factor analysis and internal consistency measurements, which led to the exclusion of 4 items from the scale. The 18-item version of the MDMQ was then administered to a validation sample consisting of healthy adults, as well as patients with bipolar disorder (BD and major depressive disorder (MDD. Results: The instrument displayed good internal consistency, with the hypervigilance subscale showing the lowest, though still acceptable, Cronbach's alpha value. Its factor structure was comparable to that of the original MDMQ according to confirmatory factor analysis. Nevertheless, the MDMQ was sensitive to both depression severity and the presence of MDD and BD, both of which are known to have an impact on DM ability. Conclusion: The version of the MDMQ produced in the present study may be an important addition to neuropsychological assessment batteries with a focus on DM and related abilities

  11. Water security and adaptive capacity for climate: Learning lessons from drought decision making in U.S. urban contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in the U.S. have been adapting to drought for many years, implementing a combination of mechanisms to cope with climate and water variability and increasing population. Cities are also at the frontline for making decisions about adaptation to climate change. Are decisions made to cope with drought helping cities to build the adaptive capacity necessary for adapting to climate change? We examined this question by conducting interviews with practitioners involved in drought management at urban water utilities across the U.S. to understand responses to drought and perceptions of their effectiveness. We then drew on established criteria for evaluating successful adaptation (effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy) to analyze whether these drought policies would build adaptive capacity for climate change. We find that drought responses overall are seen as successful in helping cities balance the demand and supply of water, and maintain system reliability as well as improve water awareness, but can have unintended consequences and shift vulnerability in unexpected ways. For example, even though cities are successful at reducing water use when needed, some are concerned with the increasing difficulty of finding new water savings during a future drought. Secondly, water conservation can affect revenue, impacting the ability of cities to plan for maintenance and capital costs. Third, the social acceptability of policy options is critical and depends on perceived fairness and other factors. Water managers are also challenged by "no fail" expectations that make it difficult to experiment. Moreover some measures can shift vulnerability from one risk, such as running out of water, to another risk, such as water becoming too expensive, lowering quality, or not meeting other key infrastructure design requirements. These findings demonstrate that adaptation measures that seek to reduce exposure to water scarcity can impact aspects of adaptive capacity, and shift

  12. An adaptive molecular timer in p53-meidated cell fate decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Peng; Wang, Ping; Liu, Feng; Wang, Wei

    The tumor suppressor p53 decides cellular outcomes in the DNA damage response. It is intriguing to explore the link between p53 dynamics and cell fates. We developed a theoretical model of p53 signaling network to clarify the mechanism of cell fate decision mediated by its dynamics. We found that the interplay between p53-Mdm2 negative feedback loop and p53-PTEN-Mdm2 positive feedback loop shapes p53 dynamics. Depending on the intensity of DNA damage, p53 shows three modes of dynamics: persistent pulses, two-phase dynamics with pulses followed by sustained high levels and straightforward high levels. Especially, p53 shows two-phase dynamics upon moderated damage and the required number of p53 pulses before apoptosis induction decreases with increasing DNA damage. Our results suggested there exists an adaptive molecular timer that determines whether and when the apoptosis switch should be triggered. We clarified the mechanism behind the switching of p53 dynamical modes by bifurcation analysis. Moreover, we reproduced the experimental results that drug additions alter p53 pulses to sustained p53 activation and leads to senescence. Our work may advance the understanding the significance of p53 dynamics in tumor suppression. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11175084, 11204126 and 31361163003).

  13. VIDEO DENOISING USING SWITCHING ADAPTIVE DECISION BASED ALGORITHM WITH ROBUST MOTION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Jayaraj

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A Non-linear adaptive decision based algorithm with robust motion estimation technique is proposed for removal of impulse noise, Gaussian noise and mixed noise (impulse and Gaussian with edge and fine detail preservation in images and videos. The algorithm includes detection of corrupted pixels and the estimation of values for replacing the corrupted pixels. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is that an appropriate filter is used for replacing the corrupted pixel based on the estimation of the noise variance present in the filtering window. This leads to reduced blurring and better fine detail preservation even at the high mixed noise density. It performs both spatial and temporal filtering for removal of the noises in the filter window of the videos. The Improved Cross Diamond Search Motion Estimation technique uses Least Median Square as a cost function, which shows improved performance than other motion estimation techniques with existing cost functions. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms in the visual point of view and in Peak Signal to Noise Ratio, Mean Square Error and Image Enhancement Factor.

  14. Adapting EVIAVE methodology as a planning and decision-making tool in Venezuela

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamorano, M.; Paolini, A.; Ramos, A.; Rodriguez, M.L.

    2009-01-01

    Landfills in Venezuela have serious problems regarding their location, design and operation. In fact, basic waste disposal is one of the main weaknesses of the municipal waste management in this country. The Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Resources has studied and identified the negative impacts of operating landfills, but no program has been implemented to determine the cause-effect relation of these impacts or to design strategies to counteract with the serious environmental and health risks generated. This paper describes how EVIAVE methodology can be successfully used for landfill diagnosis, and shows how this type of landfill diagnosis was applied in Venezuela. For our research study, we carried out both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the environmental problems generated by 22 landfills in Venezuela. Our study was based on the following environmental indexes: Landfill Environment, Environmental Risk, Environmental Value, and Probability of Contamination. For the purposes of our study, it was first necessary to adapt EVIAVE to the legal system and social context in Venezuela. The results obtained confirmed the applicability of this methodology to Venezuelan landfills. EVIAVE was found to be an effective planning tool that provided crucial information for the development of action plans, which would improve landfill operation, and help make decisions pertaining to their closure, sealing and eventual recovery.

  15. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Alexis B; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

    2017-07-17

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects of ToM or fixed strategy agents with static behaviors or heuristics. Individuals with higher Autism Quotient (AQ) scores cooperated less than subjects with low AQ scores with the ToM agents. In contrast, subjects with higher AQ scores cooperated more with fixed strategy agents. Additionally, subjects with higher AQ scores spent more time than low AQ subjects signaling cooperative intent in games with fixed strategy agents while spending less time signaling cooperation with adaptive agents, indicating a preference toward systemizing behaviors in the face of uncertainty. We conclude that individuals with high levels of autistic traits are less likely to utilize ToM as a cognitive strategy, even when it is beneficial, to achieve a desired outcome.

  16. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  17. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  18. Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M

    2013-05-08

    Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and

  19. Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

  20. Usability of clinical decision support system as a facilitator for learning the assistive technology adaptation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and

  1. Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eikelboom, T.; Janssen, R.

    2017-01-01

    Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation

  2. Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion

    2014-01-01

    on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...

  3. Adaptive Iterative Soft-Input Soft-Output Parallel Decision-Feedback Detectors for Asynchronous Coded DS-CDMA Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Wei

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The optimum and many suboptimum iterative soft-input soft-output (SISO multiuser detectors require a priori information about the multiuser system, such as the users' transmitted signature waveforms, relative delays, as well as the channel impulse response. In this paper, we employ adaptive algorithms in the SISO multiuser detector in order to avoid the need for this a priori information. First, we derive the optimum SISO parallel decision-feedback detector for asynchronous coded DS-CDMA systems. Then, we propose two adaptive versions of this SISO detector, which are based on the normalized least mean square (NLMS and recursive least squares (RLS algorithms. Our SISO adaptive detectors effectively exploit the a priori information of coded symbols, whose soft inputs are obtained from a bank of single-user decoders. Furthermore, we consider how to select practical finite feedforward and feedback filter lengths to obtain a good tradeoff between the performance and computational complexity of the receiver.

  4. Examining Challenges Related to the Production of Actionable Climate Knowledge for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Focus on Climate Knowledge System Producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.

    2017-12-01

    Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally

  5. Implementation of adapted PECARN decision rule for children with minor head injury in the pediatric emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Silvia; Romanato, Sabrina; Mion, Teresa; Zanconato, Stefania; Da Dalt, Liviana

    2012-07-01

    Of the currently published clinical decision rules for the management of minor head injury (MHI) in children, the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule, derived and validated in a large multicenter prospective study cohort, with high methodologic standards, appears to be the best clinical decision rule to accurately identify children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBI) in the pediatric emergency department (PED). This study describes the implementation of an adapted version of the PECARN rule in a tertiary care academic PED in Italy and evaluates implementation success, in terms of medical staff adherence and satisfaction, as well as its effects on clinical practice. The adapted PECARN decision rule algorithms for children (one for those younger than 2 years and one for those older than 2 years) were actively implemented in the PED of Padova, Italy, for a 6-month testing period. Adherence and satisfaction of medical staff to the new rule were calculated. Data from 356 visits for MHI during PECARN rule implementation and those of 288 patients attending the PED for MHI in the previous 6 months were compared for changes in computed tomography (CT) scan rate, ciTBI rate (defined as death, neurosurgery, intubation for longer than 24 hours, or hospital admission at least for two nights associated with TBI) and return visits for symptoms or signs potentially related to MHI. The safety and efficacy of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice were also calculated. Adherence to the adapted PECARN rule was 93.5%. The percentage of medical staff satisfied with the new rule, in terms of usefulness and ease of use for rapid decision-making, was significantly higher (96% vs. 51%, puse of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice was 100% (95% CI=36.8 to 100; three of three patients with ciTBI who received CT scan at first evaluation), while efficacy was 92.3% (95% CI=89 to 95; 326 of 353 patients without ci

  6. Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broom, Donald M

    2006-01-01

    The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and

  7. Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    building skills, knowledge or networks on adaptation, ... the African partners leading the AfricaAdapt network, together with the UK-based Institute of Development Studies; and ... UNCCD Secretariat, Regional Coordination Unit for Africa, Tunis, Tunisia .... 26 Rural–urban Cooperation on Water Management in the Context of.

  9. Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

  10. Adaptive information-theoretic bounded rational decision-making with parametric priors

    OpenAIRE

    Grau-Moya, Jordi; Braun, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    Deviations from rational decision-making due to limited computational resources have been studied in the field of bounded rationality, originally proposed by Herbert Simon. There have been a number of different approaches to model bounded rationality ranging from optimality principles to heuristics. Here we take an information-theoretic approach to bounded rationality, where information-processing costs are measured by the relative entropy between a posterior decision strategy and a given fix...

  11. The Need for Speed: Accelerating Decision Making on the 7 C’s of Adaptive Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-23

    that are able to smoothly handle multiple demands, shifting priorities and rapid change.3 Adaptive Leadership and Situational Leader Theory In...his article in Military Review, George Yeakey points out that Hersey and Blanchard’s Situational Leadership Theory (SLT) has been used by the military...Adaptive Leadership 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER COL

  12. Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Chui Betty Khong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

  13. A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sindhu Ravindran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM. IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm.

  14. A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus Sauvage) Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.

    2016-01-01

    This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary

  15. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  16. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  17. Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking : Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the

  18. Cutthroat cooperation : The effects of team role decisions on adaptation to alternative reward structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beersma, Bianca; Hollenbeck, John R.; Conlon, Donald E.; Humphrey, Stephen E.; Moon, Henry; Ilgen, Daniel R.

    Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,

  19. Cutthroat cooperation: the effects of team role decisions on adaptation to alternative reward structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beersma, B.; Hollenbeck, J.R.; Conlon, D.E.; Humphrey, S.E.; Moon, H.; Ilgen, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,

  20. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ting Liu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A brain-computer interface (BCI creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This

  2. Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF) for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA) Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu-Ting; Pal, Nikhil R; Marathe, Amar R; Wang, Yu-Kai; Lin, Chin-Teng

    2017-01-01

    A brain-computer interface (BCI) creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA) system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF) is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions) and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This conclusion

  3. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  4. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

  5. Adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  6. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  7. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents

    OpenAIRE

    Craig, Alexis B.; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L.

    2017-01-01

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects...

  8. Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaighobadi, Farnaz; Stevens, Jeffrey R

    2013-07-18

    Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males), become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted--i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  9. Does Fertility Status Influence Impulsivity and Risk Taking in Human Females? Adaptive Influences on Intertemporal Choice and Risky Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnaz Kaighobadi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted—i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  10. Adaptation to new nutritional environments: larval performance, foraging decisions, and adult oviposition choices in Drosophila suzukii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Soares, Nuno F; Nogueira-Alves, A; Beldade, P; Mirth, Christen Kerry

    2017-06-07

    Understanding how species adapt to new niches is a central issue in evolutionary ecology. Nutrition is vital for the survival of all organisms and impacts species fitness and distribution. While most Drosophila species exploit rotting plant parts, some species have diversified to use ripe fruit, allowing earlier colonization. The decomposition of plant material is facilitated by yeast colonization and proliferation. These yeasts serve as the main protein source for Drosophila larvae. This dynamic rotting process entails changes in the nutritional composition of the food and other properties, and animals feeding on material at different stages of decay are expected to have behavioural and nutritional adaptations. We compared larval performance, feeding behaviour and adult oviposition site choice between the ripe fruit colonizer and invasive pest Drosophila suzukii, and a closely-related rotting fruit colonizer, Drosophila biarmipes. Through the manipulation of protein:carbohydrate ratios in artificial diets, we found that D. suzukii larvae perform better at lower protein concentrations and consume less protein rich diets relative to D. biarmipes. For adult oviposition, these species differed in preference for substrate hardness, but not for the substrate nutritional composition. Our findings highlight that rather than being an exclusive specialist on ripe fruit, D. suzukii's adaptation to use ripening fruit allow it to colonize a wider range of food substrates than D. biarmipes, which is limited to soft foods with higher protein concentrations. Our results underscore the importance of nutritional performance and feeding behaviours in the colonization of new food niches.

  11. Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking: Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process. PMID:24244527

  12. Decision making in concurrent multitasking: do people adapt to task interference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menno Nijboer

    Full Text Available While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.

  13. The development of adaptive decision making: Recognition-based inference in children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Sebastian S; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Pachur, Thorsten

    2016-09-01

    Judgments about objects in the world are often based on probabilistic information (or cues). A frugal judgment strategy that utilizes memory (i.e., the ability to discriminate between known and unknown objects) as a cue for inference is the recognition heuristic (RH). The usefulness of the RH depends on the structure of the environment, particularly the predictive power (validity) of recognition. Little is known about developmental differences in use of the RH. In this study, the authors examined (a) to what extent children and adolescents recruit the RH when making judgments, and (b) around what age adaptive use of the RH emerges. Primary schoolchildren (M = 9 years), younger adolescents (M = 12 years), and older adolescents (M = 17 years) made comparative judgments in task environments with either high or low recognition validity. Reliance on the RH was measured with a hierarchical multinomial model. Results indicated that primary schoolchildren already made systematic use of the RH. However, only older adolescents adaptively adjusted their strategy use between environments and were better able to discriminate between situations in which the RH led to correct versus incorrect inferences. These findings suggest that the use of simple heuristics does not progress unidirectionally across development but strongly depends on the task environment, in line with the perspective of ecological rationality. Moreover, adaptive heuristic inference seems to require experience and a developed base of domain knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Statistical Learning and Adaptive Decision-Making Underlie Human Response Time Variability in Inhibitory Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning eMa

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Response time (RT is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task, in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop, and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay, with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop and SSD. The human behavioral data (n=20 bear out this prediction, showing P(stop and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  15. Statistical learning and adaptive decision-making underlie human response time variability in inhibitory control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Yu, Angela J

    2015-01-01

    Response time (RT) is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task (SST), in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop), and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay), with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop) and SSD. The human behavioral data (n = 20) bear out this prediction, showing P(stop) and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop) being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  16. Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

    2016-12-01

    Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication

  17. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-01-01

    Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction ......, and the AEDA’s capacity to distinguish between true and false error scenarios. The study further shows that the AEDA can offer guidance in decision making in the event of potential errors detected with real-time in vivo point dosimetry....... of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods:In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most...

  18. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.

    2002-01-01

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  19. Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooseh, Shakoor; Bernhardt, Nadine; Guevara, Alvaro; Huys, Quentin J M; Smolka, Michael N

    2018-02-01

    Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.

  20. Complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC using highly adaptive fast mode decision based on macroblock motion activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdellah, Skoudarli; Mokhtar, Nibouche; Amina, Serir

    2015-11-01

    The H.264/AVC video coding standard is used in a wide range of applications from video conferencing to high-definition television according to its high compression efficiency. This efficiency is mainly acquired from the newly allowed prediction schemes including variable block modes. However, these schemes require a high complexity to select the optimal mode. Consequently, complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC encoder has recently become a very challenging task in the video compression domain, especially when implementing the encoder in real-time applications. Fast mode decision algorithms play an important role in reducing the overall complexity of the encoder. In this paper, we propose an adaptive fast intermode algorithm based on motion activity, temporal stationarity, and spatial homogeneity. This algorithm predicts the motion activity of the current macroblock from its neighboring blocks and identifies temporal stationary regions and spatially homogeneous regions using adaptive threshold values based on content video features. Extensive experimental work has been done in high profile, and results show that the proposed source-coding algorithm effectively reduces the computational complexity by 53.18% on average compared with the reference software encoder, while maintaining the high-coding efficiency of H.264/AVC by incurring only 0.097 dB in total peak signal-to-noise ratio and 0.228% increment on the total bit rate.

  1. A decision support system for adaptive real-time management ofseasonal wetlands in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark

    2001-10-16

    This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperation the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.

  2. Older Adults Making End of Life Decisions: An Application of Roy's Adaptation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The purpose of this study was to identify variables that influenced completion of advanced directives in the context of adaptation from national data in older adults. Knowledge gained from this study would help us identify factors that might influence end of life discussions and shed light on strategies on effective communication on advance care planning. Design and Method. A model-testing design and path analysis were used to examine secondary data from 938 participants. Items were extracted from the data set to correspond to variables for this study. Scales were constructed and reliabilities were tested. Results. The final path model showed that physical impairment, self-rated health, continuing to work, and family structure had direct and indirect effects on completion of advanced directives. Five percent of the variance was accounted for by the path analysis. Conclusion. The variance accounted for by the model was small. This could have been due to the use of secondary data and limitations imposed for measurement. However, health care providers and families should explore patient’s perception of self-health as well as their family and work situation in order to strategize a motivational discussion on advance directive or end of life care planning.

  3. Variation in Hospital Length of Stay : Do Physicians Adapt Their Length of Stay Decisions to What Is Usual in the Hospital Where They Work?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, Judith D. de; Westert, Gert P.; Lagoe, Ronald; Groenewegen, Peter P.

    2006-01-01

    Objective. To test the hypothesis that physicianswho work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. Data Sources. Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and ResearchCooperative System (SPARCS). SPARCS

  4. Variation in hospital length of stay: do physicians adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital where they work?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, J.D. de; Westert, G.P.; Lagoe, R.; Groenewegen, P.P.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that physicians who work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS).

  5. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  6. The film adaptation as an intersemiotic translation procedure: the "Budapeste" case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janaína Guedes Milanez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on the semiotic theories of American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce, this article analyzes Walter Carvalho and Rita Buzzar’s film adaptation of the novel Budapeste, by Chico Buarque (2003. According to Peirce, a sign is anything that can take the place of something else in any situation — in this sense, in a representation context. If the sign is a representation device, we use it to make translation processes, that is, we put a sign in place of another sign so that we are able to relate to reality through language. An important issue, from this theoretical point of view, is to question how film adaptations, translations of translations, are related to literary texts. For the reading that we propose, from a semiotic perspective, we shall apply the most famous Peircean classes of signs (icon, index and symbol, considering their functionality, but we shall mainly use the icon category, because of its property of representing based on similarity relations between signs and their objects. The hypothesis we are considering initially is that, in both narratives in issue (the literary and the film one, the mirror metaphor, or the duplication metaphor, can be self-referential ones, taking part in a labyrinthine game of digressions and interruptions in the plot, which is an attempt to deconstruct the verisimilitude and so is also an icon of the fictional subject. In order to explore the analytical potential of the Peircean categories, we shall discuss the film adaptation as an intersemiotic process, trying to find out which interpretation of the novel is in the filmmaker’s reading, following the clues of this translation process and considering the implications of Peirce typology to a theoretical-critical appreciation of the film.

  7. The Formation of Rational and Irrational Behaviors in Risky Investment Decision Making: Laboratory Experiment of Coping Theory Implication in Investors’ Adaptation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Wendy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control, investors tended to adapt the profit maximizing strategy (rational. Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control, three (threat-high control and four (threat-low control, they tended to adapt the profit satisfying strategy (rational-emotional, bad news handling strategy (emotional-rational, and self-preserving strategy (irrational respectively. The application of rational strategies are intended to obtain personal benefits and profit, while adapting irrational strategy is intended to recover emotional stability and reduce some other tensions. Another finding showed that for the investors, the relatively irrational decision formation was "harder" than that of rational.

  8. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  9. Can conservation contracts co-exist with change? Payment for ecosystem services in the context of adaptive decision-making and sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  10. [Adapting and validating the generic instrument CollaboRATE™ to measure women's participation in health related decision-making during the reproductive process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Paulina; Contreras, Aixa; Dois, Angelina; Villarroel, Luis

    2018-05-01

    There is a worldwide interest in involving patients in health related decisions, so patients can actively search for therapeutic options and choose course of action that allows them to have better quality of life and wellbeing. The majority of the instruments available to capture the degree of participation in medical decision-making are in English and have been developed in high income countries. To adapt and validate for the Chilean context the instrument CollaboRATE™, to measure women's participation in medical decisions during the reproductive process. Cross-sectional study to adapt and validate the instrument CollaboRATE™. Maternity units in Santiago, Chile. Puerperal women in maternity units of three public hospitals. Translation and back-translation, cultural and linguistic relevance with service users and final revision by experts. Study for validation with 90 puerperal women. The Chilean version of CollaboRATE™ demonstrated to be a reliable instrument to capture the degree of patients' participation in medical decision-making. Cronbach alpha was above 0.89. This study provides the first instrument to capture the prevalence of SDM in a Latin American country. This instrument will be critical in future research efforts that seek to explore to what extent people are being involved in the decisions related to their healthcare. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  11. The Logic of Adaptive Behavior - Knowledge Representation and Algorithms for the Markov Decision Process Framework in First-Order Domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Otterlo, M.

    2008-01-01

    Learning and reasoning in large, structured, probabilistic worlds is at the heart of artificial intelligence. Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. Many efficient reinforcement learning and dynamic

  12. [The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

    2015-03-01

    To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

    2011-01-01

    Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

  14. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  15. Usability evaluation and adaptation of the e-health Personal Patient Profile-Prostate decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latino men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Donna L; Halpenny, Barbara; Bosco, Jaclyn L F; Bruyere, John; Sanda, Martin G

    2015-07-24

    The Personal Patient Profile-Prostate (P3P), a web-based decision aid, was demonstrated to reduce decisional conflict in English-speaking men with localized prostate cancer early after initial diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to explore and enhance usability and cultural appropriateness of a Spanish P3P by Latino men with a diagnosis of prostate cancer. P3P was translated to Spanish and back-translated by three native Spanish-speaking translators working independently. Spanish-speaking Latino men with a diagnosis of localized prostate cancer, who had made treatment decisions in the past 24 months, were recruited from two urban clinical care sites. Individual cognitive interviews were conducted by two bilingual research assistants as each participant used the Spanish P3P. Notes of user behavior, feedback, and answers to direct questions about comprehension, usability and perceived usefulness were analyzed and categorized. Seven participants with a range of education levels identified 25 unique usability issues in navigation, content comprehension and completeness, sociocultural appropriateness, and methodology. Revisions were prioritized to refine the usability and cultural and linguistic appropriateness of the decision aid. Usability issues were discovered that are potential barriers to effective decision support. Successful use of decision aids requires adaptation and testing beyond translation. Our findings led to revisions further refining the usability and linguistic and cultural appropriateness of Spanish P3P.

  16. mPLR-Loc: an adaptive decision multi-label classifier based on penalized logistic regression for protein subcellular localization prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Shibiao; Mak, Man-Wai; Kung, Sun-Yuan

    2015-03-15

    Proteins located in appropriate cellular compartments are of paramount importance to exert their biological functions. Prediction of protein subcellular localization by computational methods is required in the post-genomic era. Recent studies have been focusing on predicting not only single-location proteins but also multi-location proteins. However, most of the existing predictors are far from effective for tackling the challenges of multi-label proteins. This article proposes an efficient multi-label predictor, namely mPLR-Loc, based on penalized logistic regression and adaptive decisions for predicting both single- and multi-location proteins. Specifically, for each query protein, mPLR-Loc exploits the information from the Gene Ontology (GO) database by using its accession number (AC) or the ACs of its homologs obtained via BLAST. The frequencies of GO occurrences are used to construct feature vectors, which are then classified by an adaptive decision-based multi-label penalized logistic regression classifier. Experimental results based on two recent stringent benchmark datasets (virus and plant) show that mPLR-Loc remarkably outperforms existing state-of-the-art multi-label predictors. In addition to being able to rapidly and accurately predict subcellular localization of single- and multi-label proteins, mPLR-Loc can also provide probabilistic confidence scores for the prediction decisions. For readers' convenience, the mPLR-Loc server is available online (http://bioinfo.eie.polyu.edu.hk/mPLRLocServer). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Danish Translation and Cultural Adaption of the 9-Item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9) patient version

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulbæk, Mette; Jørgensen, Marianne Johansson; Primdahl, Jette

    Background and aims Measure instruments that measure the extent to which patients are involved in the process of decision-making are developed and validated and being used worldwide. So far, no validated self-report instrument for the shared decision making (SDM) process is available in Denmark....... The German 9-item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9, patient version) is used to measure the extent to which patients are involved in the process of decision-making. The questionnaire can be used in both research and clinical practice. It can be used when there are several treatment options...... conclusion A forward and backward translation were completed by four different translators and followed by an adjustment made by the expert panel. The expert panel included the three of the four translators, experts in health, instrument development and translation and an expert in the field of gynecology...

  18. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-06-01

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  19. Evaluation Within the Scope of Standa rdization and Adaptation of the Product Decisions Strategies Implemented by Unilever Knorr in the Turkish Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begüm Şahin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization

  20. Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of ‘serious games’ for engagement and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, Stephen; Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.; Blackett, Paula; Edwards, Peter

    2018-06-01

    Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems, communities and economic activities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change, and changes in behaviour to effect adaptation. ‘Serious games’—games used for purposes other than entertainment—are one way to reduce this adaptation deficit by enhancing opportunities for social learning and enabling positive action. Games can provide communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, build capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges, and socialise adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Using systematic review methods, this paper identifies, reviews, synthesises and assesses the literature on serious games for climate change adaptation. To determine where and how impact is achieved, we draw on an evaluation framework grounded in social learning, to assess which combinations of cognitive (knowledge and thinking), normative (norms and approaches) and relational (how people connect and network building) learning are achieved. Results show that factors influencing the overall success in influencing behaviour and catalysing learning for adaptation include generating high levels of inter- and intra- level trust between researchers, practitioners and community participants; strong debriefing and evaluation practices; and the use of experienced and knowledgeable facilitators. These results can help inform future game design, and research methodologies to develop robust ways for engaging with stakeholders and end users, and enhance learning effects for resilient climate futures.

  1. Evaluating Adaptation of a Cancer Clinical Trial Decision Aid for Rural Cancer Patients: A Mixed-Methods Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Swati; George, Nerissa; Monti, Denise; Robinson, Kathy; Politi, Mary C

    2018-06-03

    Rural-residing cancer patients often do not participate in clinical trials. Many patients misunderstand cancer clinical trials and their rights as participant. The purpose of this study is to modify a previously developed cancer clinical trials decision aid (DA), incorporating the unique needs of rural populations, and test its impact on knowledge and decision outcomes. The study was conducted in two phases. Phase I recruited 15 rural-residing cancer survivors in a qualitative usability study. Participants navigated the original DA and provided feedback regarding usability and implementation in rural settings. Phase II recruited 31 newly diagnosed rural-residing cancer patients. Patients completed a survey before and after using the revised DA, R-CHOICES. Primary outcomes included decisional conflict, decision self-efficacy, knowledge, communication self-efficacy, and attitudes towards and willingness to consider joining a trial. In phase I, the DA was viewed positively by rural-residing cancer survivors. Participants provided important feedback about factors rural-residing patients consider when thinking about trial participation. In phase II, after using R-CHOICES, participants had higher certainty about their choice (mean post-test = 3.10 vs. pre-test = 2.67; P = 0.025) and higher trial knowledge (mean percentage correct at post-test = 73.58 vs. pre-test = 57.77; P decision self-efficacy, communication self-efficacy, and attitudes towards or willingness to join trials. The R-CHOICES improved rural-residing patients' knowledge of cancer clinical trials and reduced conflict about making a trial decision. More research is needed on ways to further support decisions about trial participation among this population.

  2. Can Protection Motivation Theory explain farmers'adaptation to Climate change/variability decision making in the Gambia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagagnan, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    In the Gambia, Changes in the climate pattern has affected and continue to affect the agriculture sector and therefore calling for effective adaptation policies. The present study aimed to explain farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measure through the protection motivation theory in The Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in all the eight communities of the study area. A transect walk was conducted first followed by a survey with 283 informants. The perception variables were referring to the past 20 years while the stated implementation was addressing the current adaptation practices. Results showed that on one hand, most of the perception variables such as severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers are significantly correlated to protection motivation and on the other hand Protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique are strongly correlated. Structural Equation Modeling confirms the mediation role of Protection motivation between Farmers stated implementation and their perception of climate variability. Decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, decrease of the length of the growing season are factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. Cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation is the main barrier to farmers `protection motivation. Therefore the study suggested that farmers' awareness about climate change/variability should be increased through farmers' field school and awareness campaigns, farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be made accessible to farmers through loans facilities and subsidizes application.

  3. Coping with climate change uncertainty for adaptation planning: An improved criterion for decision making under uncertainty using UKCP09

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Green

    2014-01-01

    Analyses using sub-samples of the complete probabilistic dataset showed that the Green Z-score had comparable reproducibility to Laplace and improved reproducibility compared to other current decision criteria, and unlike Laplace is able to accommodate different risk attitudes.

  4. Standardisation vs. adaption : a conjoint experiment on the influence of psychic, cultural and geographical distance on international marketing mix decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraus, Sascha; Meier, Fabian; Eggers, Felix; Bouncken, Ricarda B.; Schuessler, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This paper delivers new insights into how psychic, cultural and geographical distance influence international marketing mix decisions on the basis of a choice-based conjoint analysis with 96 managers from Switzerland and Liechtenstein. In this experiment, the managers had to decide whether the four

  5. A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, Arun; Zeidler, James R.; Beex, A. A. Louis

    2007-12-01

    It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS) decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983). An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE) requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF) as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER) performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

  6. A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. (Louis Beex

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983. An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

  7. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  8. Robust Decision Making to Support Water Quality Climate Adaptation: a Case Study in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischbach, J. R.; Lempert, R. J.; Molina-Perez, E.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with state and local partners, develops watershed implementation plans designed to meet water quality standards. Climate uncertainty, along with uncertainty about future land use changes or the performance of water quality best management practices (BMPs), may make it difficult for these implementation plans to meet water quality goals. In this effort, we explored how decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) could help USEPA and its partners develop implementation plans that are more robust to future uncertainty. The study focuses on one part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the Patuxent River, which is 2,479 sq km in area, highly urbanized, and has a rapidly growing population. We simulated the contribution of stormwater contaminants from the Patuxent to the overall Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay under multiple scenarios reflecting climate and other uncertainties. Contaminants considered included nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads. The assessment included a large set of scenario simulations using the USEPA Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase V watershed model. Uncertainties represented in the analysis included 18 downscaled climate projections (based on 6 general circulation models and 3 emissions pathways), 12 land use scenarios with different population projections and development patterns, and alternative assumptions about BMP performance standards and efficiencies associated with different suites of stormwater BMPs. Finally, we developed cost estimates for each of the performance standards and compared cost to TMDL performance as a key tradeoff for future water quality management decisions. In this talk, we describe how this research can help inform climate-related decision support at USEPA's Chesapeake Bay Program, and more generally how RDM and other DMDU methods can support improved water quality management under climate

  9. From Algorithmic Black Boxes to Adaptive White Boxes: Declarative Decision-Theoretic Ethical Programs as Codes of Ethics

    OpenAIRE

    van Otterlo, Martijn

    2017-01-01

    Ethics of algorithms is an emerging topic in various disciplines such as social science, law, and philosophy, but also artificial intelligence (AI). The value alignment problem expresses the challenge of (machine) learning values that are, in some way, aligned with human requirements or values. In this paper I argue for looking at how humans have formalized and communicated values, in professional codes of ethics, and for exploring declarative decision-theoretic ethical programs (DDTEP) to fo...

  10. Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Pandian; Ananthan, Pachampalayam Shanmugam; Purvaja, Ramachandran; Joyson Joe Jeevamani, Jeyapaul; Amali Infantina, John; Srinivasa Rao, Cherukumalli; Anand, Arur; Mahendra, Ranganalli Somashekharappa; Sekar, Iyyapa; Kareemulla, Kalakada; Biswas, Amit; Kalpana Sastry, Regulagedda; Ramesh, Ramachandran

    2018-05-31

    The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as

  11. Climate-Adapted Soil Cultivation as an Aspect for Sustainable Farming – Task-Technology-Fit of a Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welf Guenther-Lübbers

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.

  12. Optimal Decision Fusion for Urban Land-Use/Land-Cover Classification Based on Adaptive Differential Evolution Using Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfei Zhong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral images and light detection and ranging (LiDAR data have, respectively, the high spectral resolution and accurate elevation information required for urban land-use/land-cover (LULC classification. To combine the respective advantages of hyperspectral and LiDAR data, this paper proposes an optimal decision fusion method based on adaptive differential evolution, namely ODF-ADE, for urban LULC classification. In the ODF-ADE framework the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM and digital surface model (DSM are extracted to form the feature map. The three different classifiers of the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC, support vector machine (SVM and multinomial logistic regression (MLR are used to classify the extracted features. To find the optimal weights for the different classification maps, weighted voting is used to obtain the classification result and the weights of each classification map are optimized by the differential evolution algorithm which uses a self-adaptive strategy to obtain the parameter adaptively. The final classification map is obtained after post-processing based on conditional random fields (CRF. The experimental results confirm that the proposed algorithm is very effective in urban LULC classification.

  13. The SDM 3 Circle Model: A Literature Synthesis and Adaptation for Shared Decision Making in the Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennke, Stephanie; Yuan, Patrick; Monash, Brad; Blankenburg, Rebecca; Chua, Ian; Harman, Stephanie; Sakai, Debbie S; Khan, Adeena; Hilton, Joan F; Shieh, Lisa; Satterfield, Jason

    2017-12-01

    Patient engagement through shared decision-making (SDM) is increasingly seen as a key component for patient safety, patient satisfaction, and quality of care. Current SDM models do not adequately account for medical and environmental contexts, which may influence medical decisions in the hospital. We identified leading SDM models and reviews to inductively construct a novel SDM model appropriate for the inpatient setting. A team of medicine and pediatric hospitalists reviewed the literature to integrate core SDM concepts and processes and iteratively constructed a synthesized draft model. We then solicited broad SDM expert feedback on the draft model for validation and further refinement. The SDM 3 Circle Model identifies 3 core categories of variables that dynamically interact within an "environmental frame." The resulting Venn diagram includes overlapping circles for (1) patient/family, (2) provider/team, and (3) medical context. The environmental frame includes all external, contextual factors that may influence any of the 3 circles. Existing multistep SDM process models were then rearticulated and contextualized to illustrate how a shared decision might be made. The SDM 3 Circle Model accounts for important environmental and contextual characteristics that vary across settings. The visual emphasis generated by each "circle" and by the environmental frame direct attention to often overlooked interactive forces and has the potential to more precisely define, promote, and improve SDM. This model provides a framework to develop interventions to improve quality and patient safety through SDM and patient engagement for hospitalists. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  14. Fusion Sub-System Design From an Integrated Command, Decision Support and ISR Perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Senglaub, Michael

    2006-01-01

    .... It is a hybridization of formal and temporal concept reasoning, Peircean reasoning with an instantiation of Mills canons, Modal logic and coupled to an architecture based on Hawkins model of the neocortex...

  15. The ASLOTS concept: An interactive, adaptive decision support concept for Final Approach Spacing of Aircraft (FASA). FAA-NASA Joint University Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1993-01-01

    This presentation outlines a concept for an adaptive, interactive decision support system to assist controllers at a busy airport in achieving efficient use of multiple runways. The concept is being implemented as a computer code called FASA (Final Approach Spacing for Aircraft), and will be tested and demonstrated in ATCSIM, a high fidelity simulation of terminal area airspace and airport surface operations. Objectives are: (1) to provide automated cues to assist controllers in the sequencing and spacing of landing and takeoff aircraft; (2) to provide the controller with a limited ability to modify the sequence and spacings between aircraft, and to insert takeoffs and missed approach aircraft in the landing flows; (3) to increase spacing accuracy using more complex and precise separation criteria while reducing controller workload; and (4) achieve higher operational takeoff and landing rates on multiple runways in poor visibility.

  16. Space-time adaptive decision feedback neural receivers with data selection for high-data-rate users in DS-CDMA systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lamare, Rodrigo C; Sampaio-Neto, Raimundo

    2008-11-01

    A space-time adaptive decision feedback (DF) receiver using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for joint equalization and interference suppression in direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems equipped with antenna arrays. The proposed receiver structure employs dynamically driven RNNs in the feedforward section for equalization and multiaccess interference (MAI) suppression and a finite impulse response (FIR) linear filter in the feedback section for performing interference cancellation. A data selective gradient algorithm, based upon the set-membership (SM) design framework, is proposed for the estimation of the coefficients of RNN structures and is applied to the estimation of the parameters of the proposed neural receiver structure. Simulation results show that the proposed techniques achieve significant performance gains over existing schemes.

  17. Hypothesis Tests for Bernoulli Experiments: Ordering the Sample Space by Bayes Factors and Using Adaptive Significance Levels for Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. de B. Pereira

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to find the relation between the adaptive significance level presented here and the sample size. We statisticians know of the inconsistency, or paradox, in the current classical tests of significance that are based on p-value statistics that are compared to the canonical significance levels (10%, 5%, and 1%: “Raise the sample to reject the null hypothesis” is the recommendation of some ill-advised scientists! This paper will show that it is possible to eliminate this problem of significance tests. We present here the beginning of a larger research project. The intention is to extend its use to more complex applications such as survival analysis, reliability tests, and other areas. The main tools used here are the Bayes factor and the extended Neyman–Pearson Lemma.

  18. Adaptive models for decision making in production management for thermoelectrical plants; Modelos adaptativos para suporte a decisao na gestao da producao de unidades termeletricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)

  19. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  20. Is all risk bad? Young adult cigarette smokers fail to take adaptive risk in a laboratory decision-making test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Andy C; Sugar, Catherine A; Hellemann, Gerhard; London, Edythe D

    2011-06-01

    Cigarette smoking has been linked to real-world risky behavior, but this association has been based largely on retrospective self-reports. Limitations of self-report data can be avoided by using laboratory, performance-based measures, such as the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., J Exp Psychol Appl 8:75-84, 2002). Initial studies have suggested that smokers display greater risk-taking on this task than nonsmokers, but these studies did not account for drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities, which are commonplace among smokers. We sought to examine the performance of smokers and nonsmokers on the BART after excluding drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities. We conducted a study of late adolescent/young adult (age 18 to 21) smokers (n = 26) and nonsmokers (n = 38) performing the BART and excluded individuals with positive drug or alcohol toxicology screens, substance abuse or dependence diagnoses, and/or current psychiatric conditions. Contrary to previous findings, smokers did not display greater risk-taking on the BART than nonsmokers. In fact, when performance was examined trial-by-trial, the nonsmokers displayed progressively greater pumping relative to smokers over time (p adaptive.

  1. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Fei Elmer Ker

    Full Text Available Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and

  2. Usability testing of Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) decision support for integrating care-based counseling of pre-diabetes in an electronic health record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrimes, Dillon; Kitos, Nicole R; Kushniruk, Andre; Mann, Devin M

    2014-09-01

    Usability testing can be used to evaluate human-computer interaction (HCI) and communication in shared decision making (SDM) for patient-provider behavioral change and behavioral contracting. Traditional evaluations of usability using scripted or mock patient scenarios with think-aloud protocol analysis provide a way to identify HCI issues. In this paper we describe the application of these methods in the evaluation of the Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) tool, and test the usability of the tool to support the ADAPT framework for integrated care counseling of pre-diabetes. The think-aloud protocol analysis typically does not provide an assessment of how patient-provider interactions are effected in "live" clinical workflow or whether a tool is successful. Therefore, "Near-live" clinical simulations involving applied simulation methods were used to compliment the think-aloud results. This complementary usability technique was used to test the end-user HCI and tool performance by more closely mimicking the clinical workflow and capturing interaction sequences along with assessing the functionality of computer module prototypes on clinician workflow. We expected this method to further complement and provide different usability findings as compared to think-aloud analysis. Together, this mixed method evaluation provided comprehensive and realistic feedback for iterative refinement of the ADAPT system prior to implementation. The study employed two phases of testing of a new interactive ADAPT tool that embedded an evidence-based shared goal setting component into primary care workflow for dealing with pre-diabetes counseling within a commercial physician office electronic health record (EHR). Phase I applied usability testing that involved "think-aloud" protocol analysis of eight primary care providers interacting with several scripted clinical scenarios. Phase II used "near-live" clinical simulations of five providers interacting with standardized

  3. Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SENGLAUB, MICHAEL E.; HARRIS, DAVID L.; RAYBOURN, ELAINE M.

    2001-01-01

    In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition

  4. Language and embodied consciousness: A Peircean ontological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An ontology of language: its source and place in First Language ... knowledge they supposedly gain in school with their immediate environment and their lived .... looking stick in space looks bent at the point it enters the medium of water.

  5. Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiwang

    Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of

  6. An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

    2016-12-01

    One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

  7. Strategic Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation....... This model incorporates elements of central strategizing, autonomous entrepreneurial behavior, interactive information processing, and open communication systems that enhance the organization's ability to observe exogenous changes and respond effectively to them....

  8. The Formation of Rational and Irrational Behaviors in Risky Investment Decision Making: Laboratory Experiment of Coping Theory Implication in Investors' Adaptation Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy Wendy; Marwan Asri; Jogiyanto Hartono

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control), investors tended to adapt the profit maximizing strategy (rational). Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control), three (threat-...

  9. Realizing Autonomy via Intelligent Hybrid Control: Adaptable Autonomy for Achieving UxV RSTA Team Decision Superiority (also known as Intelligent Multi-UxV Planner with Adaptive Collaborative/Control Technologies (IMPACT))

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-30

    Proceedings Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE) 10194, Micro- and Nanotechnology Sensors, Systems, and Applications IX, 101941Y (May...PUBLICATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT. ALLEN ROWE JOSEPH P. NALEPKA Project Engineer Chief, Supervisory...task sharing and decision superiority. A tri-service team has conducted Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD/R&E

  10. The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan K. Kazak

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI, which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica, and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS. The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland. The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

  11. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

    2016-12-01

    Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

  13. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Munaretto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decision-making tools and methods, and the literature on the governance of adaptation is in its infancy in this regard. We argue that climate adaptation governance would benefit from systematic and yet flexible decision-making tools and methods such as participatory multicriteria methods for the evaluation of adaptation options, and that these methods can be linked to key adaptive governance principles. Moving from these premises, we propose a framework that integrates key adaptive governance features into participatory multicriteria methods for the governance of climate adaptation.

  14. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

    1998-01-01

    For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

  15. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  16. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  17. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  18. Adaptive Rationality, Adaptive Behavior and Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volchik Vyacheslav, V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic literature focused on understanding decision-making and choice processes reveals a vast collection of approaches to human rationality. Theorists’ attention has moved from absolutely rational, utility-maximizing individuals to boundedly rational and adaptive ones. A number of economists have criticized the concepts of adaptive rationality and adaptive behavior. One of the recent trends in the economic literature is to consider humans irrational. This paper offers an approach which examines adaptive behavior in the context of existing institutions and constantly changing institutional environment. It is assumed that adaptive behavior is a process of evolutionary adjustment to fundamental uncertainty. We emphasize the importance of actors’ engagement in trial and error learning, since if they are involved in this process, they obtain experience and are able to adapt to existing and new institutions. The paper aims at identifying relevant institutions, adaptive mechanisms, informal working rules and practices that influence actors’ behavior in the field of Higher Education in Russia (Rostov Region education services market has been taken as an example. The paper emphasizes the application of qualitative interpretative methods (interviews and discourse analysis in examining actors’ behavior.

  19. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  20. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  1. WE-EF-BRD-03: I Want It Now!: Advances in MRI Acquisition, Reconstruction and the Use of Priors to Enable Fast Anatomic and Physiologic Imaging to Inform Guidance and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Y. [Mayo Clinic Arizona (United States)

    2015-06-15

    MRI-guided treatment is a growing area of medicine, particularly in radiotherapy and surgery. The exquisite soft tissue anatomic contrast offered by MRI, along with functional imaging, makes the use of MRI during therapeutic procedures very attractive. Challenging the utility of MRI in the therapy room are many issues including the physics of MRI and the impact on the environment and therapeutic instruments, the impact of the room and instruments on the MRI; safety, space, design and cost. In this session, the applications and challenges of MRI-guided treatment will be described. The session format is: Past, present and future: MRI-guided radiotherapy from 2005 to 2025: Jan Lagendijk Battling Maxwell’s equations: Physics challenges and solutions for hybrid MRI systems: Paul Keall I want it now!: Advances in MRI acquisition, reconstruction and the use of priors to enable fast anatomic and physiologic imaging to inform guidance and adaptation decisions: Yanle Hu MR in the OR: The growth and applications of MRI for interventional radiology and surgery: Rebecca Fahrig Learning Objectives: To understand the history and trajectory of MRI-guided radiotherapy To understand the challenges of integrating MR imaging systems with linear accelerators To understand the latest in fast MRI methods to enable the visualisation of anatomy and physiology on radiotherapy treatment timescales To understand the growing role and challenges of MRI for image-guided surgical procedures My disclosures are publicly available and updated at: http://sydney.edu.au/medicine/radiation-physics/about-us/disclosures.php.

  2. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  3. Behavioural mechanisms and adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nigussie, Yalemzewd

    2017-01-01

    The literature on climate change adaptation in developing countries focused on the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of adaptation decisions to climate change. Decision behavioural among others is thought to influence the path of innovation uptake related to climate change. We need to

  4. Economics of Climate Change Adaptation | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Literature on the economics of climate change adaptation - especially in developing countries - is generally scarce, and this weakens the premise on which adaptation decisions are made. Moreover, there is no standard framework or toolkit to guide researchers and policymakers in this kind of decision-making. This grant ...

  5. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  6. Understanding climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity: synthesis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patino, L. [Policy Research Initiative, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2010-09-15

    In 2007, the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division (CCIAD) offered its support to research projects that were involved in understanding and improving adaptation and adaptive capacity and contributed to climate change decision-making and policy development in Canada. 20 research projects were commissioned by the CCIAD. With the collaboration of NRCan, the principal findings raised by the commissioned projects were synthesized by the Policy Research Initiative (PRI). Common themes and main messages are introduced in this synthesis report, and policy and program aspects that promote adaptive capacity to climate change in Canada are identified. Common themes and important messages emerging from the research projects, as well as the processes and barriers to adaptation and adaptive capacity identified in the commissioned projects, were discussed during a workshop held in Ottawa in 2009. Five main themes and four common barriers to adaptation were found. 25 refs.

  7. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  8. Adaptive Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lorin W.

    1979-01-01

    Schools have devised several ways to adapt instruction to a wide variety of student abilities and needs. Judged by criteria for what adaptive education should be, most learning for mastery programs look good. (Author/JM)

  9. Peircean Logic as Semiotic and Biosemiotics as Transdisciplinary Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brier, Søren

    qualitative and quantitative methods. Herby it represents a unity of science that the logical positivist could not produce and oters an alternative to constructivist postmodernism's many incommensurable small stories. So what is the ontology that makes such a common framework for quantitative and qualitative...... them with dualist theories of codes and information. In [3] I have argued that this foundation is not enough. It does not even embrace a systems and cybernetic foundation making self-organization possible. Peirce is inspired by German idealism, Especially Shelling and exchanges Hegel spirit...

  10. Learning and Teaching Critical Thinking: From a Peircean Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Kelley

    2009-01-01

    The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…

  11. Adaptive Wireless Multimedia Services

    OpenAIRE

    Yi, Xiaokun

    2006-01-01

    Context-awareness is a hot topic in mobile computing currently. A lot of importance is being attached to facilitating the user of various mobile computing devices to provide services that are more “user-centric”. One aspect of context-awareness is to perceive variations in available resources, and to make decisions based on the feedback to enable applications to automatically adapt to the current environment. For Voice over IP (VoIP) software phones (softphones), variations in network perform...

  12. Adaptation: Needs, Financing and Institutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))

    2008-07-01

    the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

  13. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial lighting ceases...

  14. The treatment of uncertainties in risk for regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baybutt, P.; Cox, D.C.; Denning, R.S.; Kurth, R.E.; Fraley, D.W.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted in an ongoing program at Battelle to develop and adapt decision analysis methods for regulatory decision making. A general approach to risk-based decision making is discussed. The nature of uncertainties in risk assessment is described and methods for their inclusion in decision making are proposed. The use of decision analysis methods in regulatory decision making and the consideration of uncertainties is illustrated in a realistic case study

  15. Investigating heterogeneity in social influence by social distance in car-sharing decisions under uncertainty : a regret-minimizing hybrid choice model framework based on sequential stated adaptation experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, J.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2016-01-01

    The present study is designed to investigate social influence in the car-sharing decision under uncertainty. Social influence indicates the phenomenon that individuals’ decisions are influenced by the choices made by members of their social networks. An individual may receive different amounts of

  16. Investigating heterogeneity in social influence by social distance in car-sharing decisions under uncertainty: A regret-minimizing hybrid choice model framework based on sequential stated adaptation experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, J.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2017-01-01

    The present study is designed to investigate social influence in car-sharing decisions under uncertainty. Social influence indicates that individuals’ decisions are influenced by the choices made by members of their social networks. An individual may experience different degrees of influence

  17. ADAPT Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) Project Lead: Scott Poll Subject Fault diagnosis in electrical power systems Description The Advanced...

  18. Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, J. Angus; Watts, Robyn J.; Allan, Catherine; Conallin, John C.

    2018-03-01

    Adaptive management enables managers to work with complexity and uncertainty, and to respond to changing biophysical and social conditions. Amid considerable uncertainty over the benefits of environmental flows, governments are embracing adaptive management as a means to inform decision making. This Special Issue of Environmental Management presents examples of adaptive management of environmental flows and addresses claims that there are few examples of its successful implementation. It arose from a session at the 11th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics held in Australia, and is consequently dominated by papers from Australia. We classified the papers according to the involvement of researchers, managers and the local community in adaptive management. Five papers report on approaches developed by researchers, and one paper on a community-led program; these case studies currently have little impact on decision making. Six papers provide examples involving water managers and researchers, and two papers provide examples involving water managers and the local community. There are no papers where researchers, managers and local communities all contribute equally to adaptive management. Successful adaptive management of environmental flows occurs more often than is perceived. The final paper explores why successes are rarely reported, suggesting a lack of emphasis on reflection on management practices. One major challenge is to increase the documentation of successful adaptive management, so that benefits of learning extend beyond the project where it takes place. Finally, moving towards greater involvement of all stakeholders is critical if we are to realize the benefits of adaptive management for improving outcomes from environmental flows.

  19. Situating adaptation: How governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence adaptation in the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel Murphy; Daniel R. Williams

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation is situated within multiple, interacting social, political, and economic forces. Adaptation pathways envision adaptation as a continual pathway of change and response embedded within this broader sociopolitical context. Pathways emphasize that current decisions are both informed by past actions and shape the landscape of future options. This research...

  20. The Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... correct decisions are made because they require advanced decision-making techniques. ... is needed to understand factors that determine growth performance. ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management.

  1. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  2. Ambiguous Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the connection between contract duration, relational mechanisms, and premature relationship termination. Based on an analysis of a large sample of exchange relationships in the global service-provider industry, we argue that investments in either longer contract duration or more in...... ambiguous reference points for adaption and thus increase the likelihood of premature termination by restricting the parties' set of adaptive actions....

  3. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  4. Adaptive steganography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandramouli, Rajarathnam; Li, Grace; Memon, Nasir D.

    2002-04-01

    Steganalysis techniques attempt to differentiate between stego-objects and cover-objects. In recent work we developed an explicit analytic upper bound for the steganographic capacity of LSB based steganographic techniques for a given false probability of detection. In this paper we look at adaptive steganographic techniques. Adaptive steganographic techniques take explicit steps to escape detection. We explore different techniques that can be used to adapt message embedding to the image content or to a known steganalysis technique. We investigate the advantages of adaptive steganography within an analytical framework. We also give experimental results with a state-of-the-art steganalysis technique demonstrating that adaptive embedding results in a significant number of bits embedded without detection.

  5. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    the investigations of lighting scenarios carried out in two test installations: White Cube and White Box. The test installations are discussed as large-scale experiential instruments. In these test installations we examine what could potentially occur when light using LED technology is integrated and distributed......Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial lighting ceases...

  6. Decision Making and Revealed Preference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

    If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

  7. On Organizational Adaptation via Dynamic Process Selection

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Handley, Holly A; Levis, Alexander H

    2000-01-01

    .... An executable organizational model composed of individual models of a five stage interacting decision maker is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the different adaptation strategies on organizational performance...

  8. Decision Profiles of Mexican-Descent Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Georgianne

    An exploratory study of decision-making in families of Mexican heritage was carried out in Phoenix, Arizona. A Normative model of decision rationality and measurement (Family Problem Instrument-FPI) was adapted from previous research. Tape-recorded data were provided by 27 families. Husbands and wives responded separately to family decision…

  9. Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce D Keefe

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals.

  10. Adaptation Insights

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Africa through Participatory Action Research. A Regional Observatory ... while the average annual rainfall recorded between. 1968 and 1999 was .... the region of Thies. For sustainability reasons, the.

  11. Adaptation Stories

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    By Reg'

    adaptation to climate change from various regions of the Sahel. Their .... This simple system, whose cost and maintenance were financially sustainable, brought ... method that enables him to learn from experience and save time, which he ...

  12. Adaptation portfolios in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Werners, S.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in MPT;

  13. Adaptive representations for reinforcement learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Whiteson, S.

    2010-01-01

    This book presents new algorithms for reinforcement learning, a form of machine learning in which an autonomous agent seeks a control policy for a sequential decision task. Since current methods typically rely on manually designed solution representations, agents that automatically adapt their own

  14. Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Molz, Günter

    2001-01-01

    Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

  15. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation? Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning. The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition

  16. RODOS database adapter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Gang

    1995-11-01

    Integrated data management is an essential aspect of many automatical information systems such as RODOS, a real-time on-line decision support system for nuclear emergency management. In particular, the application software must provide access management to different commercial database systems. This report presents the tools necessary for adapting embedded SQL-applications to both HP-ALLBASE/SQL and CA-Ingres/SQL databases. The design of the database adapter and the concept of RODOS embedded SQL syntax are discussed by considering some of the most important features of SQL-functions and the identification of significant differences between SQL-implementations. Finally fully part of the software developed and the administrator's and installation guides are described. (orig.) [de

  17. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor; Zielosko, Beata

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be 'over-fitted', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes

  18. Recommendation System for Adaptive Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yunxiao; Li, Xiaoou; Liu, Jingchen; Ying, Zhiliang

    2018-01-01

    An adaptive learning system aims at providing instruction tailored to the current status of a learner, differing from the traditional classroom experience. The latest advances in technology make adaptive learning possible, which has the potential to provide students with high-quality learning benefit at a low cost. A key component of an adaptive learning system is a recommendation system, which recommends the next material (video lectures, practices, and so on, on different skills) to the learner, based on the psychometric assessment results and possibly other individual characteristics. An important question then follows: How should recommendations be made? To answer this question, a mathematical framework is proposed that characterizes the recommendation process as a Markov decision problem, for which decisions are made based on the current knowledge of the learner and that of the learning materials. In particular, two plain vanilla systems are introduced, for which the optimal recommendation at each stage can be obtained analytically.

  19. Single-photon decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-08-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  20. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  1. Nuclear decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunster, H.J.; Farmer, F.R.; Gaines, M.J.

    1979-01-01

    In the Correspondence section of this issue of Nature three letters are published each of which has a bearing on the article by P. Taylor in the issue of 22 February. In that article Taylor calls for changes in the way decisions are taken on nuclear energy matters. The three articles are by H.J. Dunster of the UKAEA Health and Safety Executive, F.R. Farmer, Safety Adviser to the UKAEA, and M.J. Gaines, National Radiological Protection Board. (UK)

  2. Failing Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... by an interest in failure as one way of improving understanding of present-day decision making in organizations.......Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... deals not with traffic delays, but with failing decisions in organizations. The assumption of this chapter is that failing decisions today are as normal as delayed trains. Instead of being the exception, failure is part of the everyday reproduction of organizations – as an uncontrolled effect but also...

  3. Nuclear decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischhoff, B.

    1991-01-01

    This attempts to identify the role of judgmental processes in various nuclear arms/war decisions. That task analysis is done with some confidence. The next two steps, diagnosing potential weaknesses in those judgments and suggesting ameliorative procedures, are done with increasing timidity. The empirical research base is not (ever) as large as one would like. It is particularly weak with regard to studies of experts forced to go beyond hard data and rely on intuitive judgments within their field of expertise. further evidence is needed to substantiate the claim that experts think like everyone else unless they have had the opportunity to master a particular kind of judgment as a learned skill. Although there is both theoretical and empirical reason to believe that various forms of decision aiding are possible, the high stakes involved mandate caution before proposing any intervention. Ineffective steps may make matters worse if they raise confidence without improving performance, or if they disrupt the cognitive ecology within which decision makers are accustomed to functioning, so that they lose touch with their own imperfect intuitions without acquiring viable alternatives

  4. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  5. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Kongshaug, Jesper; Søndergaard, Karin

    2015-01-01

    offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... to be static, and no longer acts as a kind of spatial constancy maintaining stability and order? Moreover, what new potentials open in lighting design? This book is one of four books that is published in connection with the research project entitled LED Lighting; Interdisciplinary LED Lighting Research...

  6. Adaptive test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Lars Peter; Eriksen, Mette Rose

    2010-01-01

    Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale.......Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale....

  7. Critical concepts in adaptive clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Park JJH

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Jay JH Park,1 Kristian Thorlund,2,3 Edward J Mills2,3 1Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 2Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact (HEI, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 3The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract: Adaptive clinical trials are an innovative trial design aimed at reducing resources, decreasing time to completion and number of patients exposed to inferior interventions, and improving the likelihood of detecting treatment effects. The last decade has seen an increasing use of adaptive designs, particularly in drug development. They frequently differ importantly from conventional clinical trials as they allow modifications to key trial design components during the trial, as data is being collected, using preplanned decision rules. Adaptive designs have increased likelihood of complexity and also potential bias, so it is important to understand the common types of adaptive designs. Many clinicians and investigators may be unfamiliar with the design considerations for adaptive designs. Given their complexities, adaptive trials require an understanding of design features and sources of bias. Herein, we introduce some common adaptive design elements and biases and specifically address response adaptive randomization, sample size reassessment, Bayesian methods for adaptive trials, seamless trials, and adaptive enrichment using real examples. Keywords: adaptive designs, response adaptive randomization, sample size reassessment, Bayesian adaptive trials, seamless trials, adaptive enrichment

  8. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  9. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning.

  10. Adaptation is...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    IDRC

    vital sector is under threat. While it is far from the only development challenge facing local farmers, extreme variations in the climate of West Africa in the past several decades have dealt the region a bad hand. Drought and flood now follow each other in succession. Adaptation is... “The floods spoiled our harvests and we.

  11. Ambiguous Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    and reciprocal adaptation of informal governance structure create ambiguity in situations of contingencies, which, subsequently, increases the likelihood of premature relationship termination. Using a large sample of exchange relationships in the global service provider industry, we find support for a hypothesis...

  12. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  13. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  14. Reprocessing decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.

    1978-01-01

    The United States must decide whether to permit, delay, or prohibit the reprocessing and recycling of nuclear spent fuel. To permit reprocessing would allow recycle as early as 1985; to delay the decision for a later administration to deal with means spent fuel would mount up at nuclear reactor sites; to prohibit would eliminate recycling and mandate permanent storage. Bayesian decision analysis was used to examine reprocessing costs associated with risks and economic benefits. Three distinct categories of risk that are important in the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed. These are: health, environment, and safety risks; nuclear theft and sabotage; and nuclear weapons proliferation risks. Results are discussed from comparing nine routes to weapons-usuable mterial available to nonweapons states that desire a nuclear capability. These are: production reactor and military reporcessor; research reacotr and military reprocessor; power plant plus military reprocessor or commercial reprocessor; enrichment (centrifuge, gaseous diffusion, electromagnetic separation, or aerodynamic jet cascade); and accelerator. It was found that the commercial power reactor-commercial reprocessor route is comparatively unattractive to a nonweapons state. In summary, allowing nuclear fuel reprocessing to go forward in the United States can be expected to increase the costs to society by a maximum $360 million a year. This is approximately one-seventh of the expected benefit (reduced electricity bills) to be dderived by society from closing the fuel cycle. It appears that the permitting reprocessing now is logically preferable to delaying or prohibiting the technology, the author concludes

  15. Hedonic "adaptation"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Rozin

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to dead bodies as disgust elicitors, by measuring specific types of disgust sensitivity in medical students before and after they have spent a few months dissecting a cadaver. Using the Disgust Scale, we find a significant reduction in disgust responses to death and body envelope violation elicitors, but no significant change in any other specific type of disgust. There is a clear reduction in discomfort at touching a cold dead body, but not in touching a human body which is still warm after death.

  16. Adaptation Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul

    2011-11-15

    Efforts to help the world's poor will face crises in coming decades as climate change radically alters conditions. Action Research for Community Adapation in Bangladesh (ARCAB) is an action-research programme on responding to climate change impacts through community-based adaptation. Set in Bangladesh at 20 sites that are vulnerable to floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise, ARCAB will follow impacts and adaptation as they evolve over half a century or more. National and international 'research partners', collaborating with ten NGO 'action partners' with global reach, seek knowledge and solutions applicable worldwide. After a year setting up ARCAB, we share lessons on the programme's design and move into our first research cycle.

  17. Adaptable positioner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labrador Pavon, I.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 22 fig. 6 ref

  18. Adaptive positioner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labrador Pavon, I.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 6 refs

  19. Adaptive ethnography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berth, Mette

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of an adaptive ethnography when studying such phenomena as young people's use of mobile media in a learning perspective. Mobile media such as PDAs and mobile phones have a number of affordances which make them potential tools for learning. However, before we begin to...... formal and informal learning contexts. The paper also proposes several adaptive methodological techniques for studying young people's interaction with mobiles.......This paper focuses on the use of an adaptive ethnography when studying such phenomena as young people's use of mobile media in a learning perspective. Mobile media such as PDAs and mobile phones have a number of affordances which make them potential tools for learning. However, before we begin...... to design and develop educational materials for mobile media platforms we must first understand everyday use and behaviour with a medium such as a mobile phone. The paper outlines the research design for a PhD project on mobile learning which focuses on mobile phones as a way to bridge the gap between...

  20. Himalayan Adaptation, Water, and Resilience | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    To help the people of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal adapt, this project will develop robust evidence to inform climate change adaptation policies and practices. ... -promote decision-makers' use of knowledge and adaptation practices at various scales to reduce vulnerabilities and build livelihood resilience; and

  1. Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.; Haasnoot, M.; ter Maat, Judith; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various

  2. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  3. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-01-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases

  4. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Munaretto, S.; Siciliano, G.; Turvani, M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate

  5. Group Decision Process Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  6. Farming System Evolution and Adaptive Capacity: Insights for Adaptation Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jami L. Dixon

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Studies of climate impacts on agriculture and adaptation often provide current or future assessments, ignoring the historical contexts farming systems are situated within. We investigate how historical trends have influenced farming system adaptive capacity in Uganda using data from household surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus-group discussions and observations. By comparing two farming systems, we note three major findings: (1 similar trends in farming system evolution have had differential impacts on the diversity of farming systems; (2 trends have contributed to the erosion of informal social and cultural institutions and an increasing dependence on formal institutions; and (3 trade-offs between components of adaptive capacity are made at the farm-scale, thus influencing farming system adaptive capacity. To identify the actual impacts of future climate change and variability, it is important to recognize the dynamic nature of adaptation. In practice, areas identified for further adaptation support include: shift away from one-size-fits-all approach the identification and integration of appropriate modern farming method; a greater focus on building inclusive formal and informal institutions; and a more nuanced understanding regarding the roles and decision-making processes of influential, but external, actors. More research is needed to understand farm-scale trade-offs and the resulting impacts across spatial and temporal scales.

  7. Adaptive therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatenby, Robert A; Silva, Ariosto S; Gillies, Robert J; Frieden, B Roy

    2009-06-01

    A number of successful systemic therapies are available for treatment of disseminated cancers. However, tumor response is often transient, and therapy frequently fails due to emergence of resistant populations. The latter reflects the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the tumor microenvironment as well as the evolutionary capacity of cancer phenotypes to adapt to therapeutic perturbations. Although cancers are highly dynamic systems, cancer therapy is typically administered according to a fixed, linear protocol. Here we examine an adaptive therapeutic approach that evolves in response to the temporal and spatial variability of tumor microenvironment and cellular phenotype as well as therapy-induced perturbations. Initial mathematical models find that when resistant phenotypes arise in the untreated tumor, they are typically present in small numbers because they are less fit than the sensitive population. This reflects the "cost" of phenotypic resistance such as additional substrate and energy used to up-regulate xenobiotic metabolism, and therefore not available for proliferation, or the growth inhibitory nature of environments (i.e., ischemia or hypoxia) that confer resistance on phenotypically sensitive cells. Thus, in the Darwinian environment of a cancer, the fitter chemosensitive cells will ordinarily proliferate at the expense of the less fit chemoresistant cells. The models show that, if resistant populations are present before administration of therapy, treatments designed to kill maximum numbers of cancer cells remove this inhibitory effect and actually promote more rapid growth of the resistant populations. We present an alternative approach in which treatment is continuously modulated to achieve a fixed tumor population. The goal of adaptive therapy is to enforce a stable tumor burden by permitting a significant population of chemosensitive cells to survive so that they, in turn, suppress proliferation of the less fit but chemoresistant

  8. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

    2006-01-01

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  9. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  10. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

  11. Adaptive management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rist, Lucy; Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Frost, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used...... in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how...... the concept might be further assessed. AM is currently being used to describe many different management contexts, scales and locations. Few authors define the term explicitly or describe how it offers a means to improve management outcomes in their specific management context. Many do not adhere to the idea...

  12. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  13. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  14. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  15. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  16. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  17. Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzgerald, D.S.; Adams, D.G.

    1994-01-01

    Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ''fuzzy'' sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion

  18. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  19. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-01-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  20. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  1. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  2. Decision Making and Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  3. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  4. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  5. A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

    2017-07-01

    In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

  6. A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J.B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

    2017-01-01

    In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

  7. Decision making across the life span

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, S.C.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.; Samanez-Larkin, G.R.

    2014-01-01

    Learning to choose adaptively between different behavioral options in order to reach goals is a pervasive task in life for people of all ages. Individuals are often confronted with complex, uncertain situations that nonetheless require decisive actions that would facilitate the pursuit of short-term

  8. Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ... those living in the Indus floodplains or on the edges of its deserts - received little attention. ... farmers' decision-making in water stressed regions, and the wider political and ...

  9. Strengthening research's influence on adaptation policies in Africa

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    CCAA

    decision-makers about climate change adaptation, and ensure partners' research contributions are taken into account. Our approach to supporting .... locally-based climate information centres improve planning and disaster risk management.

  10. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adger, W.N.; Arnell, N.W.; University of Southampton; Tompkins, E.L.; University of East Anglia, Norwich; University of Southampton

    2005-01-01

    Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (author)

  11. Supporting Adaptive and Adaptable Hypermedia Presentation Semantics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C.A. Bulterman (Dick); L. Rutledge (Lloyd); L. Hardman (Lynda); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractHaving the content of a presentation adapt to the needs, resources and prior activities of a user can be an important benefit of electronic documents. While part of this adaptation is related to the encodings of individual data streams, much of the adaptation can/should be guided by the

  12. Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1994-01-01

    Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

  13. On complex adaptive systems and terrorism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, E.; Elgazzar, A.S.; Hegazi, A.S.

    2005-01-01

    Complex adaptive systems (CAS) are ubiquitous in nature. They are basic in social sciences. An overview of CAS is given with emphasize on the occurrence of bad side effects to seemingly 'wise' decisions. Hence application to terrorism is given. Some conclusions on how to deal with this phenomena are proposed

  14. Portfolios of adaptation investments in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Botzen, Wouter; Werners, Saskia E.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in

  15. Models of behavioral change and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Zhang, J.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter explains and summarizes models of behavioral change and adaptation, which have received less application in the life choice analysis associated with urban policy. Related to various life choices, life trajectory events are major decisions with a relatively long-lasting impact, such as

  16. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services coordinators - are involved in the implementation of the plan. Unfortunately, they are far from ...

  17. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

  18. Project Decision Chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter

    2015-01-01

    To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

  19. Analytic Procedures For Designing and Evaluating Decision Aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    the taxonomy of decision charateristics . Chapter 5 applies the taxonomies to the information processing functions needed for AAW decisions, and...rationality emphasizes the extent to which organizations and other social institutions consist of individuals who pursue individual objectives by means of...adaptive rationality is always wrong or naive; most of us know persons that seem to be naturally good decision-makers. There is no logic that guarantees

  20. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  1. The Brain Adapts to Dishonesty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett, Neil; Lazzaro, Stephanie C.; Ariely, Dan; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Dishonesty is an integral part of our social world, influencing domains ranging from finance and politics to personal relationships. Anecdotally, digressions from a moral code are often described as a series of small breaches that grow over time. Here, we provide empirical evidence for a gradual escalation of self-serving dishonesty and reveal a neural mechanism supporting it. Behaviorally, we show that the extent to which participants engage in self-serving dishonesty increases with repetition. Using fMRI we show that signal reduction in the amygdala is sensitive to the history of dishonest behavior, consistent with adaptation. Critically, the extent of amygdala BOLD reduction to dishonesty on a present decision relative to the last, predicts the magnitude of escalation of self-serving dishonesty on the next decision. The findings uncover a biological mechanism that supports a “slippery slope”: what begins as small acts of dishonesty can escalate into larger instances. PMID:27775721

  2. The Relationship between Spirituality, Religiousness, and Career Adaptability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Ryan D.; Blustein, David L.

    2005-01-01

    The present study examined the relationship between spirituality, religiousness, and career adaptability using a sample of undergraduate students (N=144). We proposed that higher levels of religiousness and spirituality would predict higher levels of career adaptability, defined in this study by career decision self-efficacy and career choice…

  3. Adaptive governance : Towards a stable, accountable and responsive government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.; van der Voort, H.G.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations are expected to adapt within a short time to deal with changes that might become disruptive if not adequately dealt with. Yet many organizations are unable to adapt effectively or quickly due to the established institutional arrangements and patterns of decision-making and

  4. Using Data to Understand How to Better Design Adaptive Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Min; Kang, Jina; Zou, Wenting; Lee, Hyeyeon; Pan, Zilong; Corliss, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    There is much enthusiasm in higher education about the benefits of adaptive learning and using big data to investigate learning processes to make data-informed educational decisions. The benefits of adaptive learning to achieve personalized learning are obvious. Yet, there lacks evidence-based research to understand how data such as user behavior…

  5. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  6. Adaptation policy in hard coal mining. Die Anpassungspolitik im Steinkohlenbergbau

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brink, H J; Haas, H; Jochum, E; Muellendorff, R; Rolshoven, H

    1981-01-01

    The book points out the necessity of balancing the output of hard coal mines. Detailed analyses of marketing conditions serve as a decision aid for business policy. Production and sales trends in German hard coal mining, instruments of adaptation to quantitative changes in sales, and empirical investigations of adaptation instruments in the underground part of the Goettelborn mine are reviewed.

  7. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  8. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  9. Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

  10. Adaptation illustrations: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Chris Swanston; Matt St. Pierre; Linda. Parker

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we demonstrate how the Adaptation Workbook (Chapter 3) can be used with the Adaptation Strategies and Approaches (Chapter 2) to develop adaptation tactics for two real-world management issues. The two illustrations in this chapter are intended to provide helpful tips to managers completing the Adaptation Workbook, as well as to show how the anticipated...

  11. Adaptive Modular Playware

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik Hautop; Þorsteinsson, Arnar Tumi

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the concept of adaptive modular playware, where the playware adapts to the interaction of the individual user. We hypothesize that there are individual differences in user interaction capabilities and styles, and that adaptive playware may adapt to the individual user...

  12. Resilience through adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broeke, ten Guus; Voorn, van George A.K.; Ligtenberg, Arend; Molenaar, Jaap

    2017-01-01

    Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations

  13. Career success criteria and locus of control as indicators of adaptive readiness in the career adaptation model.

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, W.; Guan, Y.; Xin, L.; Mak, M.C.K.; Deng, Y.

    2016-01-01

    The present research had two goals. The first goal was to identify additional individual characteristics that may contribute to adaptive readiness. The second goal was to test if these characteristics fit the career adaptation model of readiness to resources to responses. We examined whether career success criteria (measured at Time 1) and career locus of control (measured at Time 1) would contribute to adaptivity and predict university students’ career decision-making self-efficacy (measured...

  14. Collective decisions among bacterial viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joh, Richard; Mileyko, Yuriy; Voit, Eberhard; Weitz, Joshua

    2010-03-01

    For many temperate bacteriophages, the decision of whether to kill hosts or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of infection. In this talk, I present a quantitative model of gene regulatory dynamics to describe how phages make collective decisions within host cells. Unlike most previous studies, the copy number of viral genomes is treated as a variable. In the absence of feedback loops, viral mRNA transcription is expected to be proportional to the viral copy number. However, when there are nonlinear feedback loops in viral gene regulation, our model shows that gene expression patterns are sensitive to changes in viral copy number and there can be a domain of copy number where the system becomes bistable. Hence, the viral copy number is a key control parameter determining host cell fates. This suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and can make alternative decisions as a bet-hedging strategy. Finally, I present a stochastic version of viral gene regulation and discuss speed-accuracy trade-offs in the context of cell fate determination by viruses.

  15. Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    world optimization problems (and hence 16 Approved for Public Release (PA); Distribution Unlimited Pred. demand (uncertain; discrete ...simplify the setting, we further assume that the demands are discrete , taking on values d1, . . . , dk with probabilities (conditional on x) (pθ)i ≡ p...Tyrrell Rockafellar. Implicit functions and solution mappings. Springer Monogr. Math ., 2009. Anthony V Fiacco and Yo Ishizuka. Sensitivity and stability

  16. Product standardization and adaptation decisions: theoretical and empirical study

    OpenAIRE

    Juškaitė, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Aktualumas. Mokslinė pažanga ir pasiekimai transportavimo, komunikacijos ir informacinių technologijų srityje, ekonominė integracija ir didėjantys pasaulinės prekybos mąstai dėl palankių verslui sąlygų pasaulyje, sąlygojo didėjančią tarptautinio verslo globalizaciją (Keegan, 2002). Visi šie veiksniai lėmė pasaulinės konkurencijos intensyvėjimą. Įmonėms veikiančioms globalioje verslo aplinkoje ir ieškančioms išlikimo ar verslo plėtros galimybių tarptautinio marketingo sprendimai tampa ypač akt...

  17. Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Alqerm, Ismail; Shihada, Basem

    2014-01-01

    Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy

  18. Decision Making on AUVs for adaptive minehunting surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giodini, S.; Hunter, A.J.; Naus, H.W.L.; Bakker, B.; Bekers, D.J.; Ditzel, M.; Vossen, R. van; Dugelay, S.; Baralli, F.; Beckers, A.L.D.

    2014-01-01

    Minehunting operations can benefit from the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) because these vehicles are able to acquire high-resolution images of the seabed leaving the man out of the minefield. However, because there are severe communication constraints between the AUV and the control

  19. Improving sustainability through intelligent cargo and adaptive decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalmolen, S.; Cornelisse, E.; Stoter, A.; Hofman, W.J.; Bastiaansen, H.J.M.; Punter, L.M.; Knoors, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the current society, logistics is faced with the challenge to meet more stringent sustainability goals. Shippers and transport service providers both aim to reduce the carbon footprint of their logistic operations. To do so, optimal use of logistics resources and physical infrastructure should be

  20. Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

    2018-01-01

    The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

  1. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  2. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

  3. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  4. Shared Decisions That Count.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlechty, Phillip C.

    1993-01-01

    Advocates of participatory leadership, site-based management, and decentralization often assume that changing decision-making group composition will automatically improve the quality of decisions being made. Stakeholder satisfaction does not guarantee quality results. This article offers a framework for moving the decision-making discussion from…

  5. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2017-09-01

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  6. Adaptive management for a turbulent future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  7. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  8. Computerized operator decision aids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, A.B.

    1984-01-01

    This article explores the potential benefits associated with the use of computers in nuclear plants by the operating crew as an aid in making decisions. Pertinent findings are presented from recently completed projects to establish the context in which operating decisions have to be made. Key factors influencing the decision-making process itself are also identified. Safety parameter display systems, which are being implemented in various forms by the nuclear industry, are described within the context of decision making. In addition, relevant worldwide research and development activities are examined as potential enhancements to computerized operator decision aids to further improve plant safety and availability

  9. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John Ernest

    The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... students a variety of decision making skills as they prepare themselves to work in international companies. This is the task initiated in this book. It discusses how managers combine both rational and non-rational approaches and tools in their decision making processes, especially in international business...

  10. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  11. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  12. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  13. Certification Considerations for Adaptive Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Cofer, Darren; Musliner, David J.; Mueller, Joseph; Engstrom, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Advanced capabilities planned for the next generation of aircraft, including those that will operate within the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), will necessarily include complex new algorithms and non-traditional software elements. These aircraft will likely incorporate adaptive control algorithms that will provide enhanced safety, autonomy, and robustness during adverse conditions. Unmanned aircraft will operate alongside manned aircraft in the National Airspace (NAS), with intelligent software performing the high-level decision-making functions normally performed by human pilots. Even human-piloted aircraft will necessarily include more autonomy. However, there are serious barriers to the deployment of new capabilities, especially for those based upon software including adaptive control (AC) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Current civil aviation certification processes are based on the idea that the correct behavior of a system must be completely specified and verified prior to operation. This report by Rockwell Collins and SIFT documents our comprehensive study of the state of the art in intelligent and adaptive algorithms for the civil aviation domain, categorizing the approaches used and identifying gaps and challenges associated with certification of each approach.

  14. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig P.; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  15. Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne

    2015-01-01

    and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues...... that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation......Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development...

  16. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-11-01

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  17. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  18. Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2006-01-01

    Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

  19. Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval: Semantics, Context, and Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissi......This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous...... submissions. The papers cover topics of state of the art contributions, features and classification, location context, language and semantics, music retrieval, and adaption and HCI....

  20. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  1. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  2. Adaptation and Cultural Diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormrod, Richard K.

    1992-01-01

    Explores the role of adaptation in cultural diffusion. Explains that adaptation theory recognizes the lack of independence between innovations and their environmental settings. Discusses testing and selection, modification, motivation, and cognition. Suggests that adaptation effects are pervasive in cultural diffusion but require a broader, more…

  3. Adaptive user interfaces

    CERN Document Server

    1990-01-01

    This book describes techniques for designing and building adaptive user interfaces developed in the large AID project undertaken by the contributors.Key Features* Describes one of the few large-scale adaptive interface projects in the world* Outlines the principles of adaptivity in human-computer interaction

  4. Decision making in specialist forensic psychiatric (the psychological aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmakova E.V.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of a study of psychological factors of decision making amongforensic psychiatric specialists. Given the survey data of10 medical psychologists and 10 psychiatrists carrying out compulsory treatment in the psychiatric hospital №5, Moscow Department of Public Health, in comparison with the control group, consisting of professionals working in the field of education, manufacturing, services and technology. Methodical complex included: 1. The Epstein questionnaire of the intuitive style (adaptation Kornilova T. V., Kornilov S. A.; A new questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty (Kornilova T. V.; Melbourne questionnaire of decision making (adaptation T. V.Kornilova; The questionnaire «Personal factors of decision making»(T.V. Kornilova; TheV. Smecalo and V. M. Kucher method; The Tsvetkova Method; 7. The questionnaire «Styles of thinking» by R. Bramsonand Harrison (adaptation of A. A. Alekseev; 8.The questionnaire «Scale of base convictions» (R.Yanov-Boulemane, adaptation M.A. Padun, A.V. Kotelnikov; 9. The check-list aimed to identify the type of decisions taken by the expert in professional activity, their frequency, importance, subjective evaluation is necessary for decision making qualities and to evaluate the most significant opinions of other persons in the decision-making process. There were defined the characteristics of decision making depending on gender. The relationships between type of activity and frequency of occurrence of different types of decisions in professional activities of specialists were revealed. Analyzed the relationship between consideration of the views of others when making decisions and activity.

  5. A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

    Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

  6. A new decision sciences for complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Robert J

    2002-05-14

    Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

  7. Ethical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zsolnai, László

    2011-01-01

    The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

  8. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  9. Dual Criteria Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    2014-01-01

    The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...... to the clear role that income thresholds play in such decision making, but does not rule out a role for tradeoffs between risk and utility or probability weighting....

  10. Organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

  11. Adaptive Leadership in Times of Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    authority to make decisions was more valuable than teams of highly trained risk managers . adaptive leadership , therefore, does not only appoint one...Coast Guard petty officer looks for survivors in wake of Hurricane Katrina DOD (NyxoLyno Cangemi) Nothing throws leadership into starker relief than...handle domestic problems, for example, has been declining for the past decade.1 add the challenge of manag - ing digital media and its rapid information

  12. Evaluating psychodiagnostic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witteman, Cilia L M; Harries, Clare; Bekker, Hilary L; Van Aarle, Edward J M

    2007-02-01

    Several frameworks can be used to evaluate decision making. These may relate to different aspects of the decision-making process, or concern the decision outcome. Evaluations of psychodiagnostic decisions have shown diagnosticians to be poor decision makers. In this essay we argue that this finding results from the evaluation of only one part of the diagnostic process. We put forward that evaluations are typically carried out by comparing clinicians' behaviour to one of several normative models, for example hypothetico-deductive reasoning. These models make strong assumptions about human reasoning capabilities, which make it almost impossible for people to measure up to them. The subsequent two parts of the psychodiagnostic process (causal explanation and treatment decisions), are typically not included in these evaluation studies. Treatment decisions are evaluated in effectiveness studies; that is, they are evaluated in terms of their outcomes, not in terms of the diagnosticians' decision processes. Psychodiagnosticians' causal explanation has hardly ever been the subject of evaluation. We argue that in order to achieve clinical excellence, this part of the psychodiagnostic process should also be well understood. In this essay we first describe evaluation of psychodiagnostic decision making. We then propose a framework to describe causal explanation, that is, a situation assessment in terms of a causal schema or a story or script. We identify and discuss the tools available for evaluating this part of the psychodiagnostic process.

  13. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  14. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  15. Resilience through adaptation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guus A Ten Broeke

    Full Text Available Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS. Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover's distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system.

  16. Resilience through adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Broeke, Guus A; van Voorn, George A K; Ligtenberg, Arend; Molenaar, Jaap

    2017-01-01

    Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover's distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system.

  17. Behavioural strategy: Adaptability context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piórkowska Katarzyna

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper is embedded in the following fields: strategic management in terms of behavioural strategy concept, adaptability construct, and micro-foundations realm as well as organizational theory and psychology. Moreover, the paper concerns to some extent a multi-level approach in strategic management involving individual, team, and organizational level. The aim of the paper is to contribute to extend, on one hand, the ascertainment set in the field of behavioural strategy as behavioural strategy encompasses a mindboggling diversity of topics and methods and its conceptual unity has been hard to achieve (Powell, Lovallo, Fox 2011, p. 1371, and on the other hand, to order mixed approaches to adaptability especially to gain insights on micro-level adapting processes (individual adaptability and adaptive performance in terms of the multi-level approach. The method that has been used is literature studies and the interference is mostly deductive. The structure of the manuscript is four-fold. The first part involves the considerations in the field of adaptability and adaptive performance at the individual level. The issues of adaptability and adaptive performance at the team level have been presented in the second part. The third part encompasses the organizational adaptability assertions. Finally, the conclusion, limitations of the considerations highlighted as well as the future research directions have been emphasized. The overarching key finding is that the behavioural strategy concept may constitute the boundary spanner in exploring and explaining adaptability phenomenon at different levels of analysis.

  18. Selecting decision strategies: the differential role of affect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; von Helversen, Bettina

    2015-01-01

    Many theories on cognition assume that people adapt their decision strategies depending on the situation they face. To test if and how affect guides the selection of decision strategies, we conducted an online study (N = 166), where different mood states were induced through video clips. Results indicate that mood influenced the use of decision strategies. Negative mood, in particular anger, facilitated the use of non-compensatory strategies, whereas positive mood promoted compensatory decision rules. These results are in line with the idea that positive mood broadens the focus of attention and thus increases the use of compensatory decision strategies that take many pieces of information into account, whereas negative mood narrows the focus of attention and thus fosters non-compensatory strategies that rely on a selective use of information. The results further indicate that gaining a deeper theoretical understanding of the cognitive mechanisms that govern decision processes requires taking emotions into account.

  19. Decision-Scaling: A Decision Framework for DoD Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    maintain the day-to-day operations of the installation. Examples of such actions include leak detection and repair for on-base infrastructure (e.g. water ...evaporation, precipitation, and leakage associated with man-made reservoirs. These inflows serve as the input data into the water resources systems...their supporting infrastructure systems, including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change

  20. Testing Decision Rules for Multiattribute Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, C.; Traub, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper investigates the existence of an editing phase and studies the com- pliance of subjects' behaviour with the most popular multiattribute decision rules. We observed that our data comply well with the existence of an editing phase, at least if we allow for a natural error rate of some 25%.

  1. Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Development of an Autodiagnostic Adaptive Precision Trainer for Decision Making (ADAPT-DM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    limitation of behavioral measures is that they are limited in their ability to discriminate performance within the ‘‘good’’ or ‘‘ bad ’’ performance... Berka et al. 2007; Klein and Hoffman 1992). In rule-based control mode, rules are consciously retrieved from memory and applied to gathered...because studies have shown a trend for decreasing EEG engagement with increasing task proficiency ( Berka et al. 2007; Stevens, Galloway, and Berka 2007). N

  3. Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

    2013-04-21

    For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5

  4. Thoughts on abatement and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Revelle, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    A number of questions having to do with the themes of abatement and adaptation are discussed. Under the first rubric are questions of future concentrations of radiatively active trace gases, the linkage of these gases with greenhouse warming, and other environmental problems. Also examined in the abatement context are opportunities to reduce fossil fuel use and therefore the emission of greenhouse gases, and the likelihood that natural forest expansion may provide an opportunity to control the rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulation in the atmosphere. Also discussed are the possible effects of greenhouse warming on agriculture in the United States and in the developing world. Finally, some suggestions are given on capturing and retaining interest in greenhouse warming on the part of the decision making public

  5. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

  6. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  7. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  8. Capital Equipment Replacement Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Batterham, Robert L.; Fraser, K.I.

    1995-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the optimal replacement of capital equipment, especially farm machinery. It also considers the influence of taxation and capital rationing on replacement decisions. It concludes that special taxation provisions such as accelerated depreciation and investment allowances are unlikely to greatly influence farmers' capital equipment replacement decisions in Australia.

  9. Games and Platform Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan

    2007-01-01

    is the application of on-line games in order to provide training for decision makers and in order to generate overview over the implications of platform decisions. However, games have to be placed in a context with other methods and we argue that a mixture of games, workshops, and simulations can provide improved...

  10. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  11. Regret in Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Connolly, T.; Zeelenberg, M.

    2002-01-01

    Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities

  12. Consumers’ Collision Insurance Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Austin, Laurel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    Using interviews with 74 drivers, we elicit and analyse how people think about collision coverage and, more generally, about insurance decisions. We compare the judgments and behaviours of these decision makers to the predictions of a range of theoretical models: (a) A model developed by Lee (200...

  13. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  14. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  15. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  16. Decision making and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Culinary Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  18. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  19. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  20. Adaptive protection scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sitharthan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at modelling an electronically coupled distributed energy resource with an adaptive protection scheme. The electronically coupled distributed energy resource is a microgrid framework formed by coupling the renewable energy source electronically. Further, the proposed adaptive protection scheme provides a suitable protection to the microgrid for various fault conditions irrespective of the operating mode of the microgrid: namely, grid connected mode and islanded mode. The outstanding aspect of the developed adaptive protection scheme is that it monitors the microgrid and instantly updates relay fault current according to the variations that occur in the system. The proposed adaptive protection scheme also employs auto reclosures, through which the proposed adaptive protection scheme recovers faster from the fault and thereby increases the consistency of the microgrid. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptive protection is studied through the time domain simulations carried out in the PSCAD⧹EMTDC software environment.

  1. Technology transfer for adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagini, Bonizella; Kuhl, Laura; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Ortiz, Claudia

    2014-09-01

    Technology alone will not be able to solve adaptation challenges, but it is likely to play an important role. As a result of the role of technology in adaptation and the importance of international collaboration for climate change, technology transfer for adaptation is a critical but understudied issue. Through an analysis of Global Environment Facility-managed adaptation projects, we find there is significantly more technology transfer occurring in adaptation projects than might be expected given the pessimistic rhetoric surrounding technology transfer for adaptation. Most projects focused on demonstration and early deployment/niche formation for existing technologies rather than earlier stages of innovation, which is understandable considering the pilot nature of the projects. Key challenges for the transfer process, including technology selection and appropriateness under climate change, markets and access to technology, and diffusion strategies are discussed in more detail.

  2. Origins of adaptive immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity.

  3. Intervention Mapping to Adapt Evidence-Based Interventions for Use in Practice: Increasing Mammography among African American Women

    OpenAIRE

    Highfield, Linda; Hartman, Marieke A.; Mullen, Patricia Dolan; Rodriguez, Serena A.; Fernandez, Maria E.; Bartholomew, L. Kay

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the use of the systematic planning process, Intervention Mapping, to adapt an evidence-based public health intervention (EBI). We used a simplified version of Intervention Mapping (IM Adapt) to increase an intervention's fit with a new setting and population. IM Adapt guides researchers and practitioners in selecting an EBI, making decisions about whether and what to adapt, and executing the adaptation while guarding the EBI's essential elements (those re...

  4. Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

    2014-02-01

    Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

  5. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  6. Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

  7. METHOD OF ADAPTIVE MAGNETOTHERAPY

    OpenAIRE

    Rudyk, Valentine Yu.; Tereshchenko, Mykola F.; Rudyk, Tatiana A.

    2016-01-01

    Practical realization of adaptive control in magnetotherapy apparatus acquires an actual importance on the modern stage of development of magnetotherapy.The structural scheme of method of adaptive impulsive magnetotherapy and algorithm of adaptive control of feed-back signal during procedure of magnetotherapy is represented.A feed-back in magnetotherapy complex will be realized with control of magnetic induction and analysis of man's physiological indexes (temperature, pulse, blood prassure, ...

  8. Procedural Rationality in the Decision-Making of Internationalizing SMEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose

    This paper contributes to the growing body of empirical work on how SME decision-makers decide to internationalize in two ways: first, it responds to recent calls for incorporating strategic decision-making literature into understanding SME internationalization decisions. Second, it provides a be...... a more rational decision-making procedure when they perceive a high level of international risk. The evidence also suggest that internationalization performance, planned internationalization, credit check, and decision team size are positively related to procedural rationality....... a better understanding of under what circumstances, SME decision-makers tend to follow a more rational approach toward internationalization decisions. Specifically, this paper examines a set of contextual variables (the level of perceived international risk, internationalization performance, planned versus...... ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow...

  9. Decision rules and group rationality: cognitive gain or standstill?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curşeu, Petru Lucian; Jansen, Rob J G; Chappin, Maryse M H

    2013-01-01

    Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group), and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members) than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.

  10. Decision rules and group rationality: cognitive gain or standstill?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru Lucian Curşeu

    Full Text Available Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group, and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.

  11. Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Angeler

    Full Text Available The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011 data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

  12. Adaptation in Living Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Yuhai; Rappel, Wouter-Jan

    2018-03-01

    Adaptation refers to the biological phenomenon where living systems change their internal states in response to changes in their environments in order to maintain certain key functions critical for their survival and fitness. Adaptation is one of the most ubiquitous and arguably one of the most fundamental properties of living systems. It occurs throughout all biological scales, from adaptation of populations of species over evolutionary time to adaptation of a single cell to different environmental stresses during its life span. In this article, we review some of the recent progress made in understanding molecular mechanisms of cellular-level adaptation. We take the minimalist (or the physicist) approach and study the simplest systems that exhibit generic adaptive behaviors, namely chemotaxis in bacterium cells (Escherichia coli) and eukaryotic cells (Dictyostelium). We focus on understanding the basic biochemical interaction networks that are responsible for adaptation dynamics. By combining theoretical modeling with quantitative experimentation, we demonstrate universal features in adaptation as well as important differences in different cellular systems. Future work in extending the modeling framework to study adaptation in more complex systems such as sensory neurons is also discussed.

  13. The purpose of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Andy

    2017-10-06

    A central feature of Darwin's theory of natural selection is that it explains the purpose of biological adaptation. Here, I: emphasize the scientific importance of understanding what adaptations are for, in terms of facilitating the derivation of empirically testable predictions; discuss the population genetical basis for Darwin's theory of the purpose of adaptation, with reference to Fisher's 'fundamental theorem of natural selection'; and show that a deeper understanding of the purpose of adaptation is achieved in the context of social evolution, with reference to inclusive fitness and superorganisms.

  14. Novelty, Adaptive Capacity, and Resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig R. Allen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a conceptual framework that explores some of the forces creating innovation and novelty in complex systems. Understanding the sources of variability and novelty may help us better understand complex systems. Understanding complex phenomena such as invasions, migration, and nomadism may provide insight into the structure of ecosystems and other complex systems, and aid our attempts to cope with and mitigate these phenomena, in the case of invasions, and better understand and or predict them. Our model is broadly applicable to ecological theory, including community ecology, resilience, restoration, and policy. Characterizing the link between landscape change and the composition of species communities may help policymakers in their decision-making processes. Understanding how variability is related to system structure, and how that generates novelty, may help us understand how resilience is generated. We suggest that there are three primary opportunities for the generation of novelty into complex systems. These sources of novelty are inherent in the cross-scale structure of complex systems, and are critical for creating adaptive capacity. Novelty originates from the inherent variability present in cross scale structures, within scale reorganization associated with adaptive cycles, and whole-scale transformations resulting from regime shifts. Although speculative, our ideas are grounded in research and observation, and they may provide insight into the evolution of complex systems.

  15. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  16. Adapting to Teach Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkening, B.; Schwartz, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    Adaptation is a key strategy to deal with the effects of climate change, and it can also be a key strategy in teaching climate literacy. Adapting curriculum to include utilizing new instructional practices, modifying existing lessons, evaluating evidence and engaging students in real-world projects are strategies employed in Recharge the Rain. Arizona Project WET and Watershed Management Group developed the Recharge the Rain project, through a NOAA Environmental Literacy Grant, to build community resiliency to hazards associated with increased temperatures, drought and flooding in Arizona. Sixth through twelfth grade teachers, students and the public will move through a continuum from awareness, to knowledge gain, to conceptual understanding, to action. During the first year of the project, through professional development and ongoing guidance, teachers developed a climate literacy curriculum to use in their classrooms. Using systems thinking language and structure from the Cabrera Research Labs, teachers and students gain the thinking tools necessary to increase understanding of Earth's climate system. Lessons and resources for teaching about climate change are abundant and many, such as those on the Climate Literacy Education Awareness Network (CLEAN), have gone through an extensive review process. By cataloguing online resources and sharing these with teachers through a social bookmarking tool, wakelet.com, teachers are easily able to find appropriate teaching material. Engaging students in evaluating evidence requires the data to be relevant to their everyday lives. Online data resources are readily available from NOAA and other sources at both the global and local levels. When teachers, students and the public contribute to the data collection process in citizen science projects such as CoCoRaHS, iSeeChange, and USA National Phenology Network, the data empowers them to act in ways to mitigate the climate threats in their community. Adapting to teach climate

  17. TECRA: C2 Application of Adaptive Automation Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    1 TECRA: C2 Application of Adaptive Automation Theory Ewart J. de Visser 1,2 , Melanie LeGoullon 1 , Don Horvath 1 , Gershon Weltman 1 , Amos...this second trip served to inform a modified version of Klein , Calderwood, and MacGregor’s [7] Critical Decision Method Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA...NSN:1550-01-538-9256, EIC:ICB, January 9. [7] Klein , G. A., Calderwood, R., & MacGregor, D. (1989). Critical decision method for eliciting

  18. Adaptation and mitigation: synergies and trade-offs

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available ) that indicates that there are many complex interactions and interdependencies between climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation. It is increasingly recognised that decisions that are made now could lock in development trajectories for a long time... parks and tree planting along streets), which promotes adaptation to heat stress due to warming while also leading to carbon sequestration in trees and soil. A multi-species, multi-purpose approach would help reduce the vulnerability of trees...

  19. Building for a Changing Climate - Adaptation through planning and construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-08-15

    Adaptation through planning and construction can help to reduce the negative effects of climate change, such as flooding, landslides, landslips, and erosion. The National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (Boverket) has conducted an analysis of how the Planning and Building Act can assist in the work towards climate change adaptation. This brochure provides guidance and support to for example property owners, developers, officials and decision makers in municipalities and the state

  20. Decisive Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Henda, Noomene Ben; Mayr, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In part...

  1. Emotion and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-03

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  2. Radwaste Decision Support System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westrom, G.; Vance, J.N.; Gelhaus, F.E.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the Radwaste Decision Support System (RDSS) is to provide expert advice, analysis results and instructional material relative to the treatment, handling, transport and disposal of low-level radioactive waste produced in nuclear power plants. This functional specification addresses the following topics: Functions of the RDSS, Relationships and interfaces between the function, Development of the decisions and logic tree structures embodied in waste management, Elements of the database and the characteristics required to support the decision-making process, Specific User requirements for the RDSS, Development of the user interface, Basic software architecture, and Concepts for the RDSS usage including updating and maintenance

  3. Decision taking as a service

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Decision taking can be performed as a service to other parties and it is amenable to outtasking rather than to outsourcing. Outtasking decision taking is compatible with selfsourcing of decision making activities carried out in preparation of decision taking. Decision taking as a service (DTaaS) is

  4. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  5. Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1998-01-01

    To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

  6. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  7. Management for adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Innes; Linda A. Joyce; Seppo Kellomaki; Bastiaan Louman; Aynslie Ogden; Ian Thompson; Matthew Ayres; Chin Ong; Heru Santoso; Brent Sohngen; Anita Wreford

    2009-01-01

    This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major...

  8. Introduction: Adapting Idols

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joost Bruin; dr. Koos Zwaan

    2012-01-01

    Introduction book Adapting Idols Since the first series of Pop Idol aired in the UK just over a decade ago, Idols television shows have been broadcast in more than forty countries all over the world. In all those countries the global Idols format has been adapted to local cultures and production

  9. Transition and adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrade, Stefan Bastholm

    2015-01-01

    This article analyses how Danish farm families adapted to harsh and changing conditions in the period after the great western agricultural crisis in the early 1980s. Drawing on Bourdieu's concepts of habitus and adaptation, I analyse the creation and consolidation of different class fractions amo...

  10. Adaptive Wavelet Transforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szu, H.; Hsu, C. [Univ. of Southwestern Louisiana, Lafayette, LA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Human sensors systems (HSS) may be approximately described as an adaptive or self-learning version of the Wavelet Transforms (WT) that are capable to learn from several input-output associative pairs of suitable transform mother wavelets. Such an Adaptive WT (AWT) is a redundant combination of mother wavelets to either represent or classify inputs.

  11. Successfully Adapting to Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, James R.

    1989-01-01

    Describes methods used to successfully adapt to reductions in budget allocations in the University of Utah's Instructional Media Services Department. Three main areas of concern are addressed: morale and staff development; adapting to change in the areas of funding, control, media priorities, and technology; and planning for the future. (LRW)

  12. Behavioral Adaptation and Acceptance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.; Jenssen, G.D.

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of Intelligent Vehicles is to improve road safety, throughput, and emissions. However, the predicted effects are not always as large as aimed for. Part of this is due to indirect behavioral changes of drivers, also called behavioral adaptation. Behavioral adaptation (BA) refers to

  13. Human pathogen avoidance adaptations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tybur, J.M.; Lieberman, D.

    2016-01-01

    Over the past few decades, researchers have become increasingly interested in the adaptations guiding the avoidance of disease-causing organisms. Here we discuss the latest developments in this area, including a recently developed information-processing model of the adaptations underlying pathogen

  14. Financing climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

  15. Adaptation investments and homeownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Skak, Morten

    2008-01-01

    the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously decide housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation...

  16. Adaptation investments and homeownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Skak, Morten

    2008-01-01

    by adapting the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously choose housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual...

  17. Soft Decision Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin; Steele, Glen; Zucha, Joan; Schlesinger, Adam

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  18. Medicare Appeals Council Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions of the Departmental Appeals Board's Medicare Appeals Council involving claims for entitlement to Medicare and individual claims for Medicare coverage and...

  19. Departmental Appeals Board Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions issued by the Chair and Board Members of the Departmental Appeals Board concerning determinations in discretionary, project grant programs, including...

  20. Actions and Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monthoux, Pierre Guillet de

    2017-01-01

    as Aristotelian syllogistic reasoning. Her constant analytical care to defend a philosophy of action against metaphysical assumptions and taken-for-granted “psychologisms” shows that an action-perspective is as analytic as ever one of decision-making. What differs is that the latter seems constantly attracted......How management philosophy is conceived depends on if pragmatism is acknowledged or not! After having been under the main domination of management science both research and education has until recently widened its scope from a decision-making to an action-perspective. It seems to be a recent...... reconnection to pragmatism that makes the 2011 Carnegie report propose to rethink management in liberal arts terms, whilst the vastly influential 1959 Carnegie Pierson report distanced itself from American pragmatism thus focusing on decisions and forgetting actions. Actions may contain decisions and choices...

  1. Decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L.N.; Noe, E.; Langvad, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...... by these three groups to make their decisions varies and therefore different ways of using decision support systems need to be provided. Decision support systems need to be developed in close dialogue and collaboration with user groups....

  2. People and Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortney, Nancy D.; Glover, Kathy H.

    1979-01-01

    Suggests that social studies classroom teachers should use the process of rational decision making to teach students how to think at higher intellectual levels, become more creative, clarify values, and increase moral development. Learning activities are described. (DB)

  3. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  4. Reconsidering information management roles and capabilities in disaster response decision-making units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment

  5. Strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...

  6. Delegating Pricing Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep Bhardwaj

    2001-01-01

    An outstanding problem in marketing is why some firms in a competitive market delegate pricing decisions to agents and other firms do not. This paper analyzes the impact of competition on the delegation decision and, in turn, the impact of delegation on prices and incentives. The theory builds on the simplest framework of competition in two dimensions: prices and (sales agents') effort. Specifically, we are interested in answering the following questions: (1) Does competition affect the price...

  7. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep

    2015-01-01

    from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  8. Crisis decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holsti, O.R.

    1989-01-01

    This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war

  9. Turbine system and adapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogberg, Nicholas Alvin; Garcia-Crespo, Andres Jose

    2017-05-30

    A turbine system and adapter are disclosed. The adapter includes a turbine attachment portion having a first geometry arranged to receive a corresponding geometry of a wheelpost of a turbine rotor, and a bucket attachment portion having a second geometry arranged to receive a corresponding geometry of a root portion of a non-metallic turbine bucket. Another adapter includes a turbine attachment portion arranged to receive a plurality of wheelposts of a turbine rotor, and a bucket attachment portion arranged to receive a plurality of non-metallic turbine buckets having single dovetail configuration root portions. The turbine system includes a turbine rotor wheel configured to receive metal buckets, at least one adapter secured to at least one wheelpost on the turbine rotor wheel, and at least one non-metallic bucket secured to the at least one adapter.

  10. Adaptive noise cancellation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akram, N.

    1999-01-01

    In this report we describe the concept of adaptive noise canceling, an alternative method of estimating signals corrupted by additive noise of interference. The method uses 'primary' input containing the corrupted signal and a 'reference' input containing noise correlated in some unknown way with the primary noise, the reference input is adaptively filtered and subtracted from the primary input to obtain the signal estimate. Adaptive filtering before subtraction allows the treatment of inputs that are deterministic or stochastic, stationary or time variable. When the reference input is free of signal and certain other conditions are met then noise in the primary input can be essentially eliminated without signal distortion. It is further shown that the adaptive filter also acts as notch filter. Simulated results illustrate the usefulness of the adaptive noise canceling technique. (author)

  11. Inhabiting Adaptive Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Schnädelbach

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive Architecture concerns buildings that are specifically designed to adapt to their inhabitants and to their environments. Work in this space has a very long history, with a number of adaptive buildings emerging during the modernist period, such as Rietveld’s Schröder house, Gaudi’s Casa Batlló and Chareau's Maison de Verre. Such early work included manual adaptivity, even if that was motor-assisted. Today, buildings have started to combine this with varying degrees of automation and designed-for adaptivity is commonplace in office buildings and eco homes, where lighting, air conditioning, access and energy generation respond to and influence the behaviour of people, and the internal and external climate.

  12. Appraising Adaptive Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai N. Lee

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive management is appraised as a policy implementation approach by examining its conceptual, technical, equity, and practical strengths and limitations. Three conclusions are drawn: (1 Adaptive management has been more influential, so far, as an idea than as a practical means of gaining insight into the behavior of ecosystems utilized and inhabited by humans. (2 Adaptive management should be used only after disputing parties have agreed to an agenda of questions to be answered using the adaptive approach; this is not how the approach has been used. (3 Efficient, effective social learning, of the kind facilitated by adaptive management, is likely to be of strategic importance in governing ecosystems as humanity searches for a sustainable economy.

  13. Adaptive signal processor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walz, H.V.

    1980-07-01

    An experimental, general purpose adaptive signal processor system has been developed, utilizing a quantized (clipped) version of the Widrow-Hoff least-mean-square adaptive algorithm developed by Moschner. The system accommodates 64 adaptive weight channels with 8-bit resolution for each weight. Internal weight update arithmetic is performed with 16-bit resolution, and the system error signal is measured with 12-bit resolution. An adapt cycle of adjusting all 64 weight channels is accomplished in 8 ..mu..sec. Hardware of the signal processor utilizes primarily Schottky-TTL type integrated circuits. A prototype system with 24 weight channels has been constructed and tested. This report presents details of the system design and describes basic experiments performed with the prototype signal processor. Finally some system configurations and applications for this adaptive signal processor are discussed.

  14. Adaptive signal processor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walz, H.V.

    1980-07-01

    An experimental, general purpose adaptive signal processor system has been developed, utilizing a quantized (clipped) version of the Widrow-Hoff least-mean-square adaptive algorithm developed by Moschner. The system accommodates 64 adaptive weight channels with 8-bit resolution for each weight. Internal weight update arithmetic is performed with 16-bit resolution, and the system error signal is measured with 12-bit resolution. An adapt cycle of adjusting all 64 weight channels is accomplished in 8 μsec. Hardware of the signal processor utilizes primarily Schottky-TTL type integrated circuits. A prototype system with 24 weight channels has been constructed and tested. This report presents details of the system design and describes basic experiments performed with the prototype signal processor. Finally some system configurations and applications for this adaptive signal processor are discussed

  15. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

    2013-05-21

    We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

  16. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...

  17. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

    2012-01-01

    Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

  18. Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

  19. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

  20. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2010-09-01

    The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

  2. Totally optimal decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha

    2017-11-22

    Optimality of decision rules (patterns) can be measured in many ways. One of these is referred to as length. Length signifies the number of terms in a decision rule and is optimally minimized. Another, coverage represents the width of a rule’s applicability and generality. As such, it is desirable to maximize coverage. A totally optimal decision rule is a decision rule that has the minimum possible length and the maximum possible coverage. This paper presents a method for determining the presence of totally optimal decision rules for “complete” decision tables (representations of total functions in which different variables can have domains of differing values). Depending on the cardinalities of the domains, we can either guarantee for each tuple of values of the function that totally optimal rules exist for each row of the table (as in the case of total Boolean functions where the cardinalities are equal to 2) or, for each row, we can find a tuple of values of the function for which totally optimal rules do not exist for this row.

  3. Totally optimal decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2017-01-01

    Optimality of decision rules (patterns) can be measured in many ways. One of these is referred to as length. Length signifies the number of terms in a decision rule and is optimally minimized. Another, coverage represents the width of a rule’s applicability and generality. As such, it is desirable to maximize coverage. A totally optimal decision rule is a decision rule that has the minimum possible length and the maximum possible coverage. This paper presents a method for determining the presence of totally optimal decision rules for “complete” decision tables (representations of total functions in which different variables can have domains of differing values). Depending on the cardinalities of the domains, we can either guarantee for each tuple of values of the function that totally optimal rules exist for each row of the table (as in the case of total Boolean functions where the cardinalities are equal to 2) or, for each row, we can find a tuple of values of the function for which totally optimal rules do not exist for this row.

  4. Constructing food choice decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

    2009-12-01

    Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

  5. 75 FR 57859 - Specially Adapted Housing and Special Home Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-23

    ... Home Adaptation AGENCY: Department of Veterans Affairs. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Department of... specially adapted housing and special home adaptation grants. This final rule incorporates certain... regulations pertaining to eligibility for specially adapted housing (SAH) grants and special home adaptation...

  6. Decision table languages and systems

    CERN Document Server

    Metzner, John R

    1977-01-01

    ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im

  7. Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2018-01-01

    All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.

  8. Things as companions : a Peircean approach to urban place / Susann Vihma

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vihma, Susann

    2003-01-01

    Inimtegevuse, keskkonna ja asjade analüüs Peirceþilikus võtmes. Püütakse eritleda tootekekkonna ja disainiprotsessiga seotud inimkogemust. Artefakti käsitletakse kui vastastikuses koostöös toimivat asja, mitte pelgalt passiivset objekti

  9. Musical meaning and logical inference from the perspective of Peircean pragmatism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oliveira, L.F.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Manzolli, J.; Gonzalez, M.E.Q.; Tsougras,, C.; Parncutt,, R.

    2008-01-01

    Background in music theory. Music theory has established a large amount of work characterizing musical structure. Nevertheless, recently some efforts have been made to investigate musical function, especially regarding its perception and understanding. Beyond the precise and objective description of

  10. Cosmos and Creativity - Man in an evolving Universe as a creative, aesthetical Agent - some Peircean Remarks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent; Thellefsen, Torkild Leo; Brier, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Any great new theoretical framework has an epistemological and an ontological aspect to its philosophy as well as an axiological one, and one needs to understand all three aspects in order to grasp the deep aspiration and idea of the theoretical framework. Presently, there is a widespread effort ...

  11. How Peircean semiotic philosophy connects Western science with Eastern emptiness ontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brier, Søren

    2017-12-01

    In recent articles in this journal I have discussed why a traditional physicalist and mechanist, as well as an info-computationalist, view of science cannot fulfil the goal of building a transdisciplinary science across Snow's two cultures. There seems to be no path proceeding from mechanistic physicalism to views that encompass phenomenological theories of experiential consciousness and meaning-based cognition and communication. I have suggested, as an alternative, the Cybersemiotic framework's integration of Peirce's semiotics and Luhmann's autopoietic system theory. The present article considers in greater depth the ontological developments necessary to make this possible. It shows how Peirce avoids materialism and German idealism through his building on a concept of emptiness similar to modern quantum field theory, positing an indeterminist objective chance feeding into an evolutionary philosophy of knowing based on pure mathematics and phenomenology that is itself combined with empirically executed fallibilism. Furthermore, he created a new metaphysics in the form of a philosophical synechist triadic process philosophy. This was integrated into the transcendentalist view of process view of science and spirituality developed from Western Unitarianism by Emerson (agapism), and featuring a metaphysics of emptiness and spontaneity (tychism) that are also essential for the Eastern philosophies of Buddhism and Vedanta. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. How Peircean Semiotic Philosophy Connects Western Science with Eastern Emptiness Ontology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brier, Søren

    2017-01-01

    in greater depth the ontological developments necessary to make this possible. It shows how Peirce avoids materialism and German idealism through his building on a concept of emptiness similar to modern quantum field theory, positing an indeterminist objective chance feeding into an evolutionary philosophy...

  13. Peircean semiotics and transmedia dynamics. Communicational potentiality of the model of Semiosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geane Carvalho Alzamora

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we discuss the pragmatic relationship between semiosis and communication in order to characterize transmedia dynamics as a pragmatic offshoot of semiosis in media, a perspective that accounts for the incompleteness of the interpretant in its meditated actions. The theoretical approach is based on the communication perspective of the sign developed by Charles Sanders Peirce and his contemporary commentators, such as Parmentier (1985, Colapietro (1995, 2004, Santaella (1992, 1995, 2003, 2004, and Bergman (2000, 2003, 2007. In addition, transmedia dynamics are explored according to Jenkins (2001, 2006, 2013, Göran (2012, and Jansson (2013. We discuss the notion of media as sign mediation and transmedia dynamics as an improvement of semiosis, based on the pragmatic approach to the latter. Transmedia narratives refer to integrated media experiences that unfold across a variety of platforms, attracting audience engagement and offering new and pertinent content. Moreover, the productive incompleteness of the interpretant is taken as a conceptual parameter for understanding the way in which media consumption regulates habits and delineates the transmedia narrative in the sign process of network associations. In conclusion, we stress how the semiotic operation of representation, associating new signs and collateral experience, without losing the narrative reference (semiotic operation of determination, emerged in transmedia environments.

  14. Ecological rationality: a framework for understanding and aiding the aging decision maker

    OpenAIRE

    Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

    2012-01-01

    The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people’s decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities...

  15. On flexible CAD of adaptive control and identification algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Anders; Ravn, Ole

    1988-01-01

    a total redesign of the system within each sample. The necessary design parameters are evaluated and a decision vector is defined, from which the identification algorithm can be generated by the program. Using the decision vector, a decision-node tree structure is built up, where the nodes define......SLLAB is a MATLAB-family software package for solving control and identification problems. This paper concerns the planning of a general-purpose subroutine structure for solving identification and adaptive control problems. A general-purpose identification algorithm is suggested, which allows...

  16. Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Aidan

    2013-01-01

    The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

  17. ROLE OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING IN DECISIONS ON MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Khomutetskaya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the introduction of management accounting in the work of organizations (enterprises that will improve the efficiency of administrative decisions will contribute to the flexibility and adaptability of the organization to changes in the external environment, increased productivity and efficient use of all resources of the organization.

  18. Decision-support tool for management of miombo woodlands: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model complexity is well adapted to the data quality and abundance, and it is dependent on proxies of some main drivers of the dynamic processes. The development of the matrix model is a step forward facilitating better decisions in the management of miombo woodlands. However, data ranges used for calibrating ...

  19. Autonomy and coordination: Controlling external influences on decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vecht, B. van der; Dignum, F.; Meyer, J.J.C.

    2009-01-01

    In order to achieve optimal results, an agent's way of decision making might need to change according to the circumstances. One of the aspects an agent can adapt is the way it processes external events. Therewith it controls to what extend it is being influenced by external factors. We argue that

  20. Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Turkish Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacanli, Feride

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…

  1. Memory Dynamics and Decision Making in Younger and Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…

  2. Identifying product development crises: The potential of adaptive heuristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münzberger, C.; Stingl, Verena; Oehmen, Josef

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification...... for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees...

  3. Modeling of processes of an adaptive business management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karev Dmitry Vladimirovich

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the analysis of systems of adaptive management board business proposed the original version of the real system of adaptive management, the basis of which used dynamic recursive model cash flow forecast and real data. Proposed definitions and the simulation of scales and intervals of model time in the control system, as well as the thresholds observations and conditions of changing (correction of the administrative decisions. The process of adaptive management is illustrated on the basis proposed by the author of the script of development of business.

  4. Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wise, RM

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available on contexts with clearly identified decision-makers and unambiguous goals; as a result, they generally assume prevailing governance regimes are conducive for adaptation and hence constrain responses to proximate causes of vulnerability. In this paper, we...

  5. Adaptive aspirations and performance heterogeneity : Attention allocation among multiple reference points

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blettner, D.P.; He, Z.; Hu, S.; Bettis, R.

    Organizations learn and adapt their aspiration levels based on reference points (prior aspiration, prior performance, and prior performance of reference groups). The relative attention that organizations allocate to these reference points impacts organizational search and strategic decisions.

  6. Dynamical adaptation in photoreceptors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damon A Clark

    Full Text Available Adaptation is at the heart of sensation and nowhere is it more salient than in early visual processing. Light adaptation in photoreceptors is doubly dynamical: it depends upon the temporal structure of the input and it affects the temporal structure of the response. We introduce a non-linear dynamical adaptation model of photoreceptors. It is simple enough that it can be solved exactly and simulated with ease; analytical and numerical approaches combined provide both intuition on the behavior of dynamical adaptation and quantitative results to be compared with data. Yet the model is rich enough to capture intricate phenomenology. First, we show that it reproduces the known phenomenology of light response and short-term adaptation. Second, we present new recordings and demonstrate that the model reproduces cone response with great precision. Third, we derive a number of predictions on the response of photoreceptors to sophisticated stimuli such as periodic inputs, various forms of flickering inputs, and natural inputs. In particular, we demonstrate that photoreceptors undergo rapid adaptation of response gain and time scale, over ∼ 300[Formula: see text] ms-i. e., over the time scale of the response itself-and we confirm this prediction with data. For natural inputs, this fast adaptation can modulate the response gain more than tenfold and is hence physiologically relevant.

  7. Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry: A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marielle Brunette

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze economic perspectives of forest adaptation to risk attributes, caused mostly by climate change. We construct a database with 89 systematically chosen articles, dealing simultaneously with climate, adaptation, risk and economy. We classify the database with regard to 18 variables bearing on the characteristics of the paper, the description of the risk and the adaptation strategy, the topic and the corresponding results. To achieve a “high level-of-evidence”, we realize a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA to identify which variables were found in combination with one other in the literature and make distinct groupings affecting adaptive decisions. We identify three groups: (i profit and production; (ii microeconomic risk-handling; and (iii decision and behavior. The first group includes economic costs and benefits as the driver of adaptation and prioritizes simulation, and a mix of theoretical and empirical economic approach. The second group distinctly involves risk-related issues, in particular its management by adaptation. The third group gathers a large set of social and behavioral variables affecting management decisions collected through questionnaires. Such an approach allows the identification of gaps in the literature, concerning the impact of owners’ preferences towards risk and uncertainty regarding adaptation decisions, the fact that adaptation was often reduced in an attempt to adapt to the increasing risk of wildfire, or the existence of a regional bias.

  8. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  9. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  10. Decisions and desire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

  11. Introduction to adaptive arrays

    CERN Document Server

    Monzingo, Bob; Haupt, Randy

    2011-01-01

    This second edition is an extensive modernization of the bestselling introduction to the subject of adaptive array sensor systems. With the number of applications of adaptive array sensor systems growing each year, this look at the principles and fundamental techniques that are critical to these systems is more important than ever before. Introduction to Adaptive Arrays, 2nd Edition is organized as a tutorial, taking the reader by the hand and leading them through the maze of jargon that often surrounds this highly technical subject. It is easy to read and easy to follow as fundamental concept

  12. [Adaptive optics for ophthalmology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, M

    2016-04-01

    Adaptive optics is a technology enhancing the visual performance of an optical system by correcting its optical aberrations. Adaptive optics have already enabled several breakthroughs in the field of visual sciences, such as improvement of visual acuity in normal and diseased eyes beyond physiologic limits, and the correction of presbyopia. Adaptive optics technology also provides high-resolution, in vivo imaging of the retina that may eventually help to detect the onset of retinal conditions at an early stage and provide better assessment of treatment efficacy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Adaptive algebraic reconstruction technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Wenkai; Yin Fangfang

    2004-01-01

    Algebraic reconstruction techniques (ART) are iterative procedures for reconstructing objects from their projections. It is proven that ART can be computationally efficient by carefully arranging the order in which the collected data are accessed during the reconstruction procedure and adaptively adjusting the relaxation parameters. In this paper, an adaptive algebraic reconstruction technique (AART), which adopts the same projection access scheme in multilevel scheme algebraic reconstruction technique (MLS-ART), is proposed. By introducing adaptive adjustment of the relaxation parameters during the reconstruction procedure, one-iteration AART can produce reconstructions with better quality, in comparison with one-iteration MLS-ART. Furthermore, AART outperforms MLS-ART with improved computational efficiency

  14. SpotADAPT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaulakiene, Dalia; Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2015-01-01

    by Amazon Web Services (AWS). The users aiming for the spot market are presented with many instance types placed in multiple datacenters in the world, and thus it is difficult to choose the optimal deployment. In this paper, we propose the framework SpotADAPT (Spot-Aware (re-)Deployment of Analytical...... of typical analytical workloads and real spot price traces. SpotADAPT's suggested deployments are comparable to the theoretically optimal ones, and in particular, it shows good cost benefits for the budget optimization -- on average SpotADAPT is at most 0.3% more expensive than the theoretically optimal...

  15. Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2014-09-13

    The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

  16. Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

  17. Knowledge representation for decision support systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methlie, L.B.

    1985-01-01

    This book is organized into three sections in accordance with the structure of the conference program. First section contains four major papers which were commissioned by the Programme Committee to set the tone for the conference and to provide a structured source of relevant material from contributing disciplines. The second section contains specific papers submitted to the conference, and concerned with the following topics of specific interest: epistemological issues for decision support systems (DSS), capturing organizational knowledge for DSS, complementarity between human and formal DSS, and representations for adaption. The third section contains the short papers on any topic of relevance to the theme of the conference. It is hoped that the two working conferences organized by WG 8.3 will contribute to the development of a coherent knowledge and understanding of the class of computerized information systems called Decision Support Systems. (Auth.)

  18. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroğlu Başak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

  19. Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1987-01-01

    The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

  20. The process of organisational adaptation through innovations, and organisational adaptability

    OpenAIRE

    Tikka, Tommi

    2010-01-01

    This study is about the process of organisational adaptation and organisational adaptability. The study generates a theoretical framework about organisational adaptation behaviour and conditions that have influence on success of organisational adaptation. The research questions of the study are: How does an organisation adapt through innovations, and which conditions enhance or impede organisational adaptation through innovations? The data were gathered from five case organisations withi...