WorldWideScience

Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. Peircean diagrams of time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can...... be done in terms of analogies and metaphors. In particular, it is attractive to make use of Peirce's diagrams by means of which various kinds of conceptual experimentation can be carried out. This paper investigates how Peircean diagrams can be used within the study of time. In particular, we discuss 1......) the topological properties of time, 2) the implicative structure in tense logic, 3) the notions of open future and branching time models, and finally 4) tenselogical alternatives to branching time models....

  3. A Peircean Inspired Typology of Print Advertising

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Christian; Sørensen, Bent

    2010-01-01

    types and is developed on the basis of an analysis of 150 quarto-, half-, and full-page advertisements from the Danish morning paper Berlingske Tidende. There are basically two traditions in advertising research — a semiotic one and a cognitive one. But none of these traditions have been used to suggest......Based on the hypothesis that Peircean semiotics can reveal how the construction of comprehension is at least partly a function of the structure of composition, the scope of this article is to present a new categorization of print advertising. The categorization consists of six different advertising...... a possible relation between composition and the effects of comprehension, as the conceptual foundation for a categorization seems, as does the Peircean variant of semiotics, to be very limited in advertising research as such. Generally seen, the purpose of the development of the present categorization...

  4. DECISION STRATEGIES AND COGNITIVE ADAPTATIONS TO ECOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poleszczuk Jan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I discuss the concept of adaptive rationality. I present a simple model of ecology and the set of decision rules. The basic structure of the process of cognitive adaptation to ecology is described as a structure comprising (1 perceptual space, (2 a function valuating perceived items, (3 a set of available decision rules and (4 the adaptation process - identification and selection of the best strategies in given ecological conditions. The presented model of ecosystem allows a conclusion that completely opposite strategies may be compatible with the assumption of adaptive rationality.

  5. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  6. Decision-level adaptation in motion perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, George; Sharman, Rebecca J

    2015-12-01

    Prolonged exposure to visual stimuli causes a bias in observers' responses to subsequent stimuli. Such adaptation-induced biases are usually explained in terms of changes in the relative activity of sensory neurons in the visual system which respond selectively to the properties of visual stimuli. However, the bias could also be due to a shift in the observer's criterion for selecting one response rather than the alternative; adaptation at the decision level of processing rather than the sensory level. We investigated whether adaptation to implied motion is best attributed to sensory-level or decision-level bias. Three experiments sought to isolate decision factors by changing the nature of the participants' task while keeping the sensory stimulus unchanged. Results showed that adaptation-induced bias in reported stimulus direction only occurred when the participants' task involved a directional judgement, and disappeared when adaptation was measured using a non-directional task (reporting where motion was present in the display, regardless of its direction). We conclude that adaptation to implied motion is due to decision-level bias, and that a propensity towards such biases may be widespread in sensory decision-making.

  7. Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Guttorp, P.; Drews, M.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise has serious consequences for harbor infrastructure, storm drains and sewer systems, and many other issues. Adapting to sea level rise requires comparing different possible adaptation strategies, comparing the cost of different actions (including no action), and assessing where...... and at what point in time the chosen strategy should be implemented. All these decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty—in the amount of sea level rise, in the cost and prioritization of adaptation actions, and in the implications of no action. Here we develop two illustrative examples...

  8. Variance adaptation in navigational decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershow, Marc; Gepner, Ruben; Wolk, Jason; Wadekar, Digvijay

    Drosophila larvae navigate their environments using a biased random walk strategy. A key component of this strategy is the decision to initiate a turn (change direction) in response to declining conditions. We modeled this decision as the output of a Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson cascade and used reverse correlation with visual and fictive olfactory stimuli to find the parameters of this model. Because the larva responds to changes in stimulus intensity, we used stimuli with uncorrelated normally distributed intensity derivatives, i.e. Brownian processes, and took the stimulus derivative as the input to our LNP cascade. In this way, we were able to present stimuli with 0 mean and controlled variance. We found that the nonlinear rate function depended on the variance in the stimulus input, allowing larvae to respond more strongly to small changes in low-noise compared to high-noise environments. We measured the rate at which the larva adapted its behavior following changes in stimulus variance, and found that larvae adapted more quickly to increases in variance than to decreases, consistent with the behavior of an optimal Bayes estimator. Supported by NIH Grant 1DP2EB022359 and NSF Grant PHY-1455015.

  9. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  10. The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

    2017-07-01

    Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision

  11. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-01-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…

  12. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  13. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  14. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-01-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

  15. Toolbox for uncertainty; Introduction of adaptive heuristics as strategies for project decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    2017-01-01

    and limited information, which are the typical project decision context. This article develops a conceptual model that supports a systematic connection between adaptive heuristics and project decisions. Individual adaptive heuristics succeed only in specific decision environments, in which...

  16. The rationality of intuition: Studying adaptive heuristics in project decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    This paper presents a research agenda for studying adaptive heuristics in project decision making. Project decisions are a potentially fruitful research field for adaptive heuristics. These decisions typically take place under time and information constraints, with high complexity and ambiguity -...

  17. Adaptation pathways: ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd A. Ontl; Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Anthony W. D’Amato; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon

    2018-01-01

    Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating...

  18. Adaptive spectrum decision framework for heterogeneous dynamic spectrum access networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Masonta, M

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available proposes an adaptive spectrum decision framework (ASDF) which is a channel allocation scheme that selects suitable channels from a list of available channels based on SU preferred options. The scheme relies on a geo-location spectrum database...

  19. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  20. A Peircean approach to ‘information’ and its relationship with Bateson’s and Jablonka’s ideas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Queiroz, João; Emmeche, Claus; El-Hani, Charbel Niño

    2008-01-01

    The Peircean semiotic approach to information that we developed in previous papers raises several new questions, and shows both similarities and differences with regard to other accounts of information. We do not intend to present here any exhaustive discussion about the relationships between our...

  1. Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Alqerm, Ismail

    2014-05-01

    Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.

  2. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  3. On the Road to Holistic Decision Making in Adaptive Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahsa Emami-Taba

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.

  4. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  5. Computerized Adaptive Test vs. decision trees: Development of a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado-Gomez, D; Baca-Garcia, E; Aguado, D; Courtet, P; Lopez-Castroman, J

    2016-12-01

    Several Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) have been proposed to facilitate assessments in mental health. These tests are built in a standard way, disregarding useful and usually available information not included in the assessment scales that could increase the precision and utility of CATs, such as the history of suicide attempts. Using the items of a previously developed scale for suicidal risk, we compared the performance of a standard CAT and a decision tree in a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior. We included the history of past suicide attempts as a class for the separation of patients in the decision tree. The decision tree needed an average of four items to achieve a similar accuracy than a standard CAT with nine items. The accuracy of the decision tree, obtained after 25 cross-validations, was 81.4%. A shortened test adapted for the separation of suicidal and non-suicidal patients was developed. CATs can be very useful tools for the assessment of suicidal risk. However, standard CATs do not use all the information that is available. A decision tree can improve the precision of the assessment since they are constructed using a priori information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Locally adaptive decision in detection of clustered microcalcifications in mammograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainz de Cea, María V.; Nishikawa, Robert M.; Yang, Yongyi

    2018-02-01

    In computer-aided detection or diagnosis of clustered microcalcifications (MCs) in mammograms, the performance often suffers from not only the presence of false positives (FPs) among the detected individual MCs but also large variability in detection accuracy among different cases. To address this issue, we investigate a locally adaptive decision scheme in MC detection by exploiting the noise characteristics in a lesion area. Instead of developing a new MC detector, we propose a decision scheme on how to best decide whether a detected object is an MC or not in the detector output. We formulate the individual MCs as statistical outliers compared to the many noisy detections in a lesion area so as to account for the local image characteristics. To identify the MCs, we first consider a parametric method for outlier detection, the Mahalanobis distance detector, which is based on a multi-dimensional Gaussian distribution on the noisy detections. We also consider a non-parametric method which is based on a stochastic neighbor graph model of the detected objects. We demonstrated the proposed decision approach with two existing MC detectors on a set of 188 full-field digital mammograms (95 cases). The results, evaluated using free response operating characteristic (FROC) analysis, showed a significant improvement in detection accuracy by the proposed outlier decision approach over traditional thresholding (the partial area under the FROC curve increased from 3.95 to 4.25, p-value  adaptive decision approach could not only reduce the number of FPs in detected MCs but also improve case-to-case consistency in detection.

  7. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  8. Interpreting climate data visualisations to inform adaptation decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph D. Daron

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The appropriate development of graphical visualisations to communicate climate data is fundamental to the provision of climate services to guide climate change adaptation decisions. However, at present there is a lack of empirical evidence, particularly in Africa, to help climate information providers determine how best to communicate and display climate data. To help address this issue, an online survey, primarily targeted at the African vulnerability, impacts and adaptation community, was designed and disseminated widely. The survey examines the interpretation of climate data as a function of the style and information content of graphical visualisations. It is shown that choices made when constructing the visualisations, such as presenting percentile information versus showing the range, significantly impact on interpretation. Results also show that respondents who interpret a higher likelihood of future changes to climate, based on the visualisation of climate model projections, express greater confidence in their interpretations. The findings have relevance to the climate risk community in Africa and elsewhere across the world, and imply that a naïve approach to visualising climate data risks misinterpretation and unjustified levels of trust, with the potential to misinform adaptation and policy decisions.

  9. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  10. Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buede, Dennis M.; Mahoney, Suzanne; Ezell, Barry; Lathrop, John

    2012-01-01

    Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

  11. Adaptive Rangeland Decision-Making and Coping with Drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie M. Roche

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Grazinglands support the livelihoods of millions of people around the world, as well as supply critical ecosystem services. Communities reliant on rain-fed rangelands are potentially the most vulnerable to increasing climate variability given their dependence on highly climate-sensitive resources. Droughts, which are gradual natural hazards, pose substantial and recurrent economic and ecological stresses to these systems. This study examined management decision-making based on survey responses of 479 California ranchers to: (1 identify the types of drought strategies in-place across California’s rangelands and the operation variables driving strategy selection; and (2 examine how individual drought adaptation is enhanced by decision-making factors. Four types of in-place drought strategies were identified and ordered along a gradient of increasing intensity (number of practices used. Significant background variables driving strategy selection were operation experience with drought, type of livestock operation, grazing system, and land ownership types. Information resource networks, goal setting for sustainable natural resources, and management capacity all acted to enhance individual drought adaptation—defined here by active drought planning and the number of both reactive and proactive drought practices used. Overall, analyses revealed that flexibility in management is a key component of adapting to and coping with drought. Climate policy planning should take into account the diversity of strategies that have been developed by ranchers for multiple generations and within the context of their unique operations, as well as support these working landscapes via a range of adaptation and mitigation options to reduce vulnerability across all types of operations.

  12. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  13. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haynie, James M

    2005-01-01

    ..." cognitive strategies to promote cognitive adaptability, which I define as the ability to appropriately evolve individual decision-frameworks in concert with a changing and uncertain environment...

  14. The Criteria For Decision Making In Adaptive Reuse Towards Sustainable Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Noorzalifah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive reuse is an important strategy for achieving sustainability as it ensures a continuous building life cycle and prevents building destruction. Adaptive reuse has the greatest potential to lower the environmental load of the built environment significantly within the next 20 to 30 years. But, the owners and practitioners still lack of point of references to justify and evaluate their decision making with regard to the adaptation practice. The aim of this paper is to explore the unique criteria of decision making among practitioners in the application of adaptive reuse of existing buildings. The descriptive study has identified five main criteria influenced in decision making in adaptive reuse that effected to the sustainable development; economic, environment, social, legislative and architecture. We designed a questionnaire to determine the most significant criteria in decision making for adaptive reuse towards sustainable development among practitioners. The paper describes the process in identifying the unique criteria and the proposed methodology for the study.

  15. Applications of decision theory to computer-based adaptive instructional systems

    OpenAIRE

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper considers applications of decision theory to the problem of instructional decision-making in computer-based adaptive instructional systems, using the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System (MAIS) as an example. The first section indicates how the problem of selecting the appropriate amount of instruction in MAIS can be situated within the general framework of empirical Bayesian decision theory. The linear loss model and the classical test model are discussed in this context. The s...

  16. Towards context adaptive privacy decisions in ubiquitous computing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaub, Florian; Könings, Bastian; Weber, M.; Kargl, Frank

    2012-01-01

    In ubiquitous systems control of privacy settings will be increasingly difficult due to the pervasive nature of sensing and communication capabilities. We identify challenges for privacy decisions in ubiquitous systems and propose a system for in situ privacy decision support. When context changes

  17. Adaptive Automation Based on Air Traffic Controller Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJtsma (Student TU Delft), Martijn; Borst, C.; Mercado Velasco, G.A.; Mulder, M.; van Paassen, M.M.; Tsang, P.S.; Vidulich, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Through smart scheduling and triggering of automation support, adaptive automation has the potential to balance air traffic controller workload. The challenge in the design of adaptive automation systems is to decide how and when the automation should provide support. This paper describes the design

  18. Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance...

  19. Decision-making tool for applying adaptive traffic control systems : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Adaptive traffic signal control technologies have been increasingly deployed in real world situations. The objective of this project was to develop a decision-making tool to guide traffic engineers and decision-makers who must decide whether or not a...

  20. 2D/3D video content adaptation decision engine based on content classification and user assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Rui; Andrade, M. T.

    2017-07-01

    Multimedia adaptation depends on several factors, such as the content itself, the consumption device and its characteristics, the transport and access networks and the user. An adaptation decision engine, in order to provide the best possible Quality of Experience to a user, needs to have information about all variables that may influence its decision. For the aforementioned factors, we implement content classification, define device classes, consider limited bandwidth scenarios and categorize user preferences based on a subjective quality evaluation test. The results of these actions generate vital information to pass to the adaptation decision engine so that its operation may provide the indication of the most suitable adaptation to perform that delivers the best possible outcome for the user under the existing constraints.

  1. 3D video bit rate adaptation decision taking using ambient illumination context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Nur Yilmaz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available 3-Dimensional (3D video adaptation decision taking is an open field in which not many researchers have carried out investigations yet compared to 3D video display, coding, etc. Moreover, utilizing ambient illumination as an environmental context for 3D video adaptation decision taking has particularly not been studied in literature to date. In this paper, a user perception model, which is based on determining perception characteristics of a user for a 3D video content viewed under a particular ambient illumination condition, is proposed. Using the proposed model, a 3D video bit rate adaptation decision taking technique is developed to determine the adapted bit rate for the 3D video content to maintain 3D video quality perception by considering the ambient illumination condition changes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is capable of exploiting the changes in ambient illumination level to use network resources more efficiently without sacrificing the 3D video quality perception.

  2. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian

    century, the design objectives of urban drainage systems also include elements such as environmental protection and amenity values. Among the objectives, flood protection has received much attention in recent years as a result of increasing flood hazards and risks due to climate change impacts. Although...... new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future...... risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based...

  3. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  4. Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Pinto

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations, a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

  5. CAIN-21: Automatic adaptation decisions and extensibility in an MPEG-21 adaptation engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando López

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the progress and final state of CAIN-21, an extensible and metadata driven multimedia adaptation in the MPEG-21 framework. CAIN-21 facilitates the integration of pluggable multimedia adaptation tools, automatically chooses the chain of adaptations to perform and manages its execution. To drive the adaptation, it uses the description tools and implied ontology established by MPEG-21. The paper not only describes the evolution and latest version of CAIN-21, but also identifies limitations and ambiguities in the description capabilities of MPEG-21. Therefore, it proposes some extensions to the MPEG-21 description schema for removing these problems. Finally, the pros and cons of CAIN-21 with respect to other multimedia adaptation engines are discussed.

  6. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate...... change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being...... optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no...

  7. Beyond Prediction: the Many Ways in which Climate Science can Inform Adaptation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate science provides an increasingly rich understanding of current and future climate, but this understanding is often not fully incorporated into climate adaptation decisions. In particular, the provision of climate information is still trapped in a narrow prediction-based framework, which envisions a sequential process that begins with model-based forecasts of future climate and decision makers then acting on those forecasts. Among its challenges, this framework can discourage action when climate predictions are deemed too uncertain, encourage overconfidence when climate scientists and decision makers fail to focus on decision-relevant but poorly understood extreme events, and offers a too-narrow communication path among climate scientists and decision makers. This talk will describe how robust decision approaches, organized around the idea of stress testing proposed adaptation decisions over a wide range of futures, can enable a richer flow information among climate scientists and decision makers. The talk illustrates these themes with two examples: 1) conservation management that explores the tradeoffs among alternative climate information products with different combinations of ensemble size and spatial resolution and 2) water quality implementation planning that focuses on the handling of extremes.

  8. DayWater: an Adaptive Decision Support System for Urban Stormwater Management

    OpenAIRE

    Thevenot, Daniel,

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The European DayWater project has developed a prototype of an Adaptive Decision Support System (ADSS) related to urban stormwater pollution source control. The DayWater ADSS greatly facilitates decision-making for stormwater source control, which is currently impeded by the large number of stakeholders involved and by the necessary multidisciplinary knowledge. This book presents the results of this project, providing new insights into both technical and management issu...

  9. A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yueh eHsiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

  10. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  11. Adaptive mode decision with residual motion compensation for distributed video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen

    2015-01-01

    decoded frame. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptive mode decision DVC significantly improves the rate distortion performance without increasing the encoding complexity. For a GOP size of 2 on the set of test sequences, the average bitrate saving of the proposed codec is 35.5% on WZ...... frames compared with the DISCOVER codec....

  12. Adaptive mode decision with residual motion compensation for distributed video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen

    2013-01-01

    decoded frame. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptive mode decision DVC significantly improves the rate distortion performance without increasing the encoding complexity. For a GOP size of 2 on the set of test sequences, the average bitrate saving of the proposed codec is 35.5% on WZ...... frames compared with the DISCOVER codec....

  13. Book review: Decision making in natural resource management: A structured adaptive approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.

    2014-01-01

    No abstract available.Book information: Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured Adaptive Approach. Michael J. Conroy and James T. Peterson, 2013. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK. 456 pp. $99.95 paperback. ISBN: 978-0-470-67174-0.

  14. Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. DeCaro

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1 encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2 garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3 cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.

  15. Adaptation of Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System Using Neuro - Genetic Approach for Tactical Air Combat Decision Support System

    OpenAIRE

    Tran, Cong; Jain, Lakhmi; Abraham, Ajith

    2004-01-01

    Normally a decision support system is build to solve problem where multi-criteria decisions are involved. The knowledge base is the vital part of the decision support containing the information or data that is used in decision-making process. This is the field where engineers and scientists have applied several intelligent techniques and heuristics to obtain optimal decisions from imprecise information. In this paper, we present a hybrid neuro-genetic learning approach for the adaptation a Ma...

  16. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Bowen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  17. Beyond cost-benefit: developing a complete toolkit for adaptation decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Rachel; Chambwera, Muyeye

    2010-06-15

    Cost-benefit analysis has important uses – and crucial blind spots. It represents only one of several economic tools that can be used to assess options for adapting to climate change in developing countries. The Nairobi Work Programme would best serve governments by considering not just cost-benefit approaches, but the entire range of tools. By developing a 'toolkit' that helps users choose from a variety of evaluation methods, we can support adaptation decisions that promote equity, put local people in control and allow for dynamic responses to climate change as it unfolds.

  18. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-05-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the

  19. Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

    2013-01-01

    Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to

  20. Hybrid Model Predictive Control for Sequential Decision Policies in Adaptive Behavioral Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yuwen; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Downs, Danielle S; Savage, Jennifer S

    2014-06-01

    Control engineering offers a systematic and efficient method to optimize the effectiveness of individually tailored treatment and prevention policies known as adaptive or "just-in-time" behavioral interventions. The nature of these interventions requires assigning dosages at categorical levels, which has been addressed in prior work using Mixed Logical Dynamical (MLD)-based hybrid model predictive control (HMPC) schemes. However, certain requirements of adaptive behavioral interventions that involve sequential decision making have not been comprehensively explored in the literature. This paper presents an extension of the traditional MLD framework for HMPC by representing the requirements of sequential decision policies as mixed-integer linear constraints. This is accomplished with user-specified dosage sequence tables, manipulation of one input at a time, and a switching time strategy for assigning dosages at time intervals less frequent than the measurement sampling interval. A model developed for a gestational weight gain (GWG) intervention is used to illustrate the generation of these sequential decision policies and their effectiveness for implementing adaptive behavioral interventions involving multiple components.

  1. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    on reviewing the current knowledge on risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems and on potential adaptation options. The paper finds that short and longer term action on climate risk management of energy systems strongly depends on: Strengthening the capacity to model and project climate change and its...... impacts at local and regional scales; improving the geographical coverage of risk, vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and the availability of systematic and integrated assessments; and, providing information and guidance in a form appropriate for planners and decision makers. Another important area......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...

  2. Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2015-01-01

    production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time......We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating...... and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions....

  3. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli L. Larson

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

  5. Mice and rats achieve similar levels of performance in an adaptive decision-making task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago eJaramillo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Two opposing constraints exist when choosing a model organism for studying the neural basis of adaptive decision-making: (1 experimental access and (2 behavioral complexity. Available molecular and genetic approaches for studying neural circuits in the mouse fulfill the first requirement. In contrast, it is still under debate if mice can perform cognitive tasks of sufficient complexity. Here we compare learning and performance of mice and rats, the preferred behavioral rodent model, during an acoustic flexible categorization two-alternative choice task. The task required animals to switch between two categorization definitions several times within a behavioral session. We found that both species achieved similarly high performance levels. On average, rats learned the task faster than mice, although some mice were as fast as the average rat. No major differences in subjective categorization boundaries or the speed of adaptation between the two species were found. Our results demonstrate that mice are an appropriate model for the study of the neural mechanisms underlying adaptive decision-making, and suggest they might be suitable for other cognitive tasks as well.

  6. Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

    2017-05-03

    Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

  7. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulin P

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Paule Poulin,1 Lea Austen,1 Catherine M Scott,2 Michelle Poulin,1 Nadine Gall,2 Judy Seidel,3 René Lafrenière1 1Department of Surgery, 2Knowledge Management, 3Public Health Innovation and Decision Support, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada Purpose: Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods: We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada, for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1 development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2 education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3 evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4 joint evaluation via retreats, 5 synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6 evaluation of the adaptation process. Results: Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion: Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence

  8. Decision Trees Predicting Tumor Shrinkage for Head and Neck Cancer: Implications for Adaptive Radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surucu, Murat; Shah, Karan K; Mescioglu, Ibrahim; Roeske, John C; Small, William; Choi, Mehee; Emami, Bahman

    2016-02-01

    To develop decision trees predicting for tumor volume reduction in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer using pretreatment clinical and pathological parameters. Forty-eight patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the nasopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were rescanned at a median dose of 37.8 Gy and replanned to account for anatomical changes. The percentages of gross tumor volume (GTV) change from initial to rescan computed tomography (CT; %GTVΔ) were calculated. Two decision trees were generated to correlate %GTVΔ in primary and nodal volumes with 14 characteristics including age, gender, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), site, human papilloma virus (HPV) status, tumor grade, primary tumor growth pattern (endophytic/exophytic), tumor/nodal/group stages, chemotherapy regimen, and primary, nodal, and total GTV volumes in the initial CT scan. The C4.5 Decision Tree induction algorithm was implemented. The median %GTVΔ for primary, nodal, and total GTVs was 26.8%, 43.0%, and 31.2%, respectively. Type of chemotherapy, age, primary tumor growth pattern, site, KPS, and HPV status were the most predictive parameters for primary %GTVΔ decision tree, whereas for nodal %GTVΔ, KPS, site, age, primary tumor growth pattern, initial primary GTV, and total GTV volumes were predictive. Both decision trees had an accuracy of 88%. There can be significant changes in primary and nodal tumor volumes during the course of H&N chemoradiotherapy. Considering the proposed decision trees, radiation oncologists can select patients predicted to have high %GTVΔ, who would theoretically gain the most benefit from adaptive radiotherapy, in order to better use limited clinical resources. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  10. Adaptive lattice decision-feedback equalizers - Their performance and application to time-variant multipath channnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, F.; Proakis, J. G.

    1985-04-01

    This paper presents two types of adaptive lattice decision-feedback equalizers (DFE), the least squares (LS) lattice DFE and the gradient lattice DFE. Their performance has been investigated on both time-invariant and time-variant channels through computer simulations and compared to other kinds of equalizers. An analysis of the self-noise and tracking characteristics of the LS DFE and the DFE employing the Widrow-Hoff least mean square adaptive algorithm (LMS DFE) are also given. The analysis and simulation results show that the LS lattice DFE has the faster initial convergence rate, while the gradient lattice DFE is computationally more efficient. The main advantages of the lattice DFE's are their numerical stability, their computational efficiency, the flexibility to change their length, and their excellent capabilities for tracking rapidly time-variant channels.

  11. Toward integrating Theory of Mind into adaptive decision-making of social robots to understand human intention

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Görür, OC

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose an architecture that integrates Theory of Mind into a robot’s decision-making to infer a human’s intention and adapt to it. The architecture implements humanrobot collaborative decision-making for a robot incorporating human variability...

  12. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  13. A decision support tool for adaptive management of native prairie ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Victoria M.; Jacobi, Sarah; Gannon, Jill J.; Zorn, Jennifer E.; Moore, Clinton; Lonsdorf, Eric V.

    2016-01-01

    The Native Prairie Adaptive Management initiative is a decision support framework that provides cooperators with management-action recommendations to help them conserve native species and suppress invasive species on prairie lands. We developed a Web-based decision support tool (DST) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey initiative. The DST facilitates cross-organizational data sharing, performs analyses to improve conservation delivery, and requires no technical expertise to operate. Each year since 2012, the DST has used monitoring data to update ecological knowledge that it translates into situation-specific management-action recommendations (e.g., controlled burn or prescribed graze). The DST provides annual recommendations for more than 10,000 acres on 20 refuge complexes in four U.S. states. We describe how the DST promotes the long-term implementation of the program for which it was designed and may facilitate decision support and improve ecological outcomes of other conservation efforts.

  14. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David N. Yates

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.

  15. Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullinx, Cassandra; Phillips, Scott; Shenk, Kelly; Hearn, Paul; Devereux, Olivia

    2009-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

  16. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

    2013-01-01

    Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences.

  17. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  18. A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F.; Haven, E.; Khrennikov, A.

    2017-10-01

    We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  19. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

  20. Adaptation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire to Brazilian Portuguese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotrena, Charles; Branco, Laura Damiani; Fonseca, Rochele Paz

    2018-03-01

    Decision making (DM) is among the most important abilities for everyday functioning. However, the most widely used measures of DM come from behavioral paradigms, whose ecological validity and standalone use has been criticized in the literature. Though these issues could be addressed by the use of DM questionnaires as a complementary assessment method, no such instruments have been validated for use in Brazilian Portuguese. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct the translation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (MDMQ) for use in a Brazilian population. The adaptation of the MDMQ involved the following steps: translation, back-translation, expert review and pilot study. These steps were followed by factor analysis and internal consistency measurements, which led to the exclusion of 4 items from the scale. The 18-item version of the MDMQ was then administered to a validation sample consisting of healthy adults, as well as patients with bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). The instrument displayed good internal consistency, with the hypervigilance subscale showing the lowest, though still acceptable, Cronbach's alpha value. Its factor structure was comparable to that of the original MDMQ according to confirmatory factor analysis. Nevertheless, the MDMQ was sensitive to both depression severity and the presence of MDD and BD, both of which are known to have an impact on DM ability. The version of the MDMQ produced in the present study may be an important addition to neuropsychological assessment batteries with a focus on DM and related abilities.

  1. CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

    Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

  2. Cultural adaptation and linguistic validation of the Family Decision Making Self Efficacy Scale (FDMSES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limardi, S; Rocco, G; Stievano, A; Vellone, E; Valle, A; Torino, F; Alvaro, R

    2014-01-01

    Nurses, following their ethical mandate, collaborate with other health and social professionals or people involved in caring activities. Caregivers in this context are becoming more and more significant for the family or the cared person, who for their stable presence and emotional proximity play a pivotal caring role. To maximize the contribution of caregivers, objective tools that emphasize their skill sets are necessary. The cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Family Decision Making Self-Efficacy Scale is part of a larger project aimed at understanding the resilience of caregivers in the field of palliative care. Self-efficacy is one of the aspects of personality most closely associated with resilience. Self-efficacy is shown in a specific context, therefore, its study and evaluation of its level, require capabilities that enable individuals perceive themselves as effective in a particular circumstance. The Family Decision Making Self- Efficacy Scale assesses the behavior of caregivers of patients at the end of their life. The Family Decision Making Self-Efficacy Scale was translated (forward and back translation) and was adapted to the Italian clinical cultural setting by a research team that included experts in palliative care, native translators with experience in nursing and experts in nursing. A consensus on the wording of each item in relation to semantic, idiomatic, experiential and conceptual equivalence was sought. The clarity of the wording and the pertinence of the items of the scenario with the conscious patient and with the unconscious patient were evaluated by a group of caregivers who tested the instrument. The Italian version of the instrument included 12 items for the scenario with the conscious patient and 12 for the scenario with the unconscious patient. The working group expressed consensus on the pretesting version of the instrument. The pre-testing version of the scale was tested on 60 caregivers, 47 taking care of conscious

  3. Adaptive Management for Decision Making at the Program and Project Levels of the Missouri River Recovery Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thom, Ronald M.; Anderson, Michael G.; Tyre, Drew; Fleming, Craig A.

    2009-02-28

    The paper, “Adaptive Management: Background for Stakeholders in the Missouri River Recovery Program,” introduced the concept of adaptive management (AM), its principles and how they relate to one-another, how AM is applied, and challenges for its implementation. This companion paper describes how the AM principles were applied to specific management actions within the Missouri River Recovery Program to facilitate understanding, decision-making, and stakeholder engagement. For context, we begin with a brief synopsis of the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) and the strategy for implementing adaptive management (AM) within the program; we finish with an example of AM in action within Phase I of the MRPP.

  4. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2011-01-01

    Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

  5. Adaptation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire to Brazilian Portuguese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Cotrena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Decision making (DM is among the most important abilities for everyday functioning. However, the most widely used measures of DM come from behavioral paradigms, whose ecological validity and standalone use has been criticized in the literature. Though these issues could be addressed by the use of DM questionnaires as a complementary assessment method, no such instruments have been validated for use in Brazilian Portuguese. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct the translation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (MDMQ for use in a Brazilian population. Methods: The adaptation of the MDMQ involved the following steps: translation, back-translation, expert review and pilot study. These steps were followed by factor analysis and internal consistency measurements, which led to the exclusion of 4 items from the scale. The 18-item version of the MDMQ was then administered to a validation sample consisting of healthy adults, as well as patients with bipolar disorder (BD and major depressive disorder (MDD. Results: The instrument displayed good internal consistency, with the hypervigilance subscale showing the lowest, though still acceptable, Cronbach's alpha value. Its factor structure was comparable to that of the original MDMQ according to confirmatory factor analysis. Nevertheless, the MDMQ was sensitive to both depression severity and the presence of MDD and BD, both of which are known to have an impact on DM ability. Conclusion: The version of the MDMQ produced in the present study may be an important addition to neuropsychological assessment batteries with a focus on DM and related abilities

  6. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  7. VIDEO DENOISING USING SWITCHING ADAPTIVE DECISION BASED ALGORITHM WITH ROBUST MOTION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Jayaraj

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A Non-linear adaptive decision based algorithm with robust motion estimation technique is proposed for removal of impulse noise, Gaussian noise and mixed noise (impulse and Gaussian with edge and fine detail preservation in images and videos. The algorithm includes detection of corrupted pixels and the estimation of values for replacing the corrupted pixels. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is that an appropriate filter is used for replacing the corrupted pixel based on the estimation of the noise variance present in the filtering window. This leads to reduced blurring and better fine detail preservation even at the high mixed noise density. It performs both spatial and temporal filtering for removal of the noises in the filter window of the videos. The Improved Cross Diamond Search Motion Estimation technique uses Least Median Square as a cost function, which shows improved performance than other motion estimation techniques with existing cost functions. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms in the visual point of view and in Peak Signal to Noise Ratio, Mean Square Error and Image Enhancement Factor.

  8. An adaptive molecular timer in p53-meidated cell fate decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Peng; Wang, Ping; Liu, Feng; Wang, Wei

    The tumor suppressor p53 decides cellular outcomes in the DNA damage response. It is intriguing to explore the link between p53 dynamics and cell fates. We developed a theoretical model of p53 signaling network to clarify the mechanism of cell fate decision mediated by its dynamics. We found that the interplay between p53-Mdm2 negative feedback loop and p53-PTEN-Mdm2 positive feedback loop shapes p53 dynamics. Depending on the intensity of DNA damage, p53 shows three modes of dynamics: persistent pulses, two-phase dynamics with pulses followed by sustained high levels and straightforward high levels. Especially, p53 shows two-phase dynamics upon moderated damage and the required number of p53 pulses before apoptosis induction decreases with increasing DNA damage. Our results suggested there exists an adaptive molecular timer that determines whether and when the apoptosis switch should be triggered. We clarified the mechanism behind the switching of p53 dynamical modes by bifurcation analysis. Moreover, we reproduced the experimental results that drug additions alter p53 pulses to sustained p53 activation and leads to senescence. Our work may advance the understanding the significance of p53 dynamics in tumor suppression. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11175084, 11204126 and 31361163003).

  9. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Alexis B; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

    2017-07-17

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects of ToM or fixed strategy agents with static behaviors or heuristics. Individuals with higher Autism Quotient (AQ) scores cooperated less than subjects with low AQ scores with the ToM agents. In contrast, subjects with higher AQ scores cooperated more with fixed strategy agents. Additionally, subjects with higher AQ scores spent more time than low AQ subjects signaling cooperative intent in games with fixed strategy agents while spending less time signaling cooperation with adaptive agents, indicating a preference toward systemizing behaviors in the face of uncertainty. We conclude that individuals with high levels of autistic traits are less likely to utilize ToM as a cognitive strategy, even when it is beneficial, to achieve a desired outcome.

  10. Water security and adaptive capacity for climate: Learning lessons from drought decision making in U.S. urban contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in the U.S. have been adapting to drought for many years, implementing a combination of mechanisms to cope with climate and water variability and increasing population. Cities are also at the frontline for making decisions about adaptation to climate change. Are decisions made to cope with drought helping cities to build the adaptive capacity necessary for adapting to climate change? We examined this question by conducting interviews with practitioners involved in drought management at urban water utilities across the U.S. to understand responses to drought and perceptions of their effectiveness. We then drew on established criteria for evaluating successful adaptation (effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy) to analyze whether these drought policies would build adaptive capacity for climate change. We find that drought responses overall are seen as successful in helping cities balance the demand and supply of water, and maintain system reliability as well as improve water awareness, but can have unintended consequences and shift vulnerability in unexpected ways. For example, even though cities are successful at reducing water use when needed, some are concerned with the increasing difficulty of finding new water savings during a future drought. Secondly, water conservation can affect revenue, impacting the ability of cities to plan for maintenance and capital costs. Third, the social acceptability of policy options is critical and depends on perceived fairness and other factors. Water managers are also challenged by "no fail" expectations that make it difficult to experiment. Moreover some measures can shift vulnerability from one risk, such as running out of water, to another risk, such as water becoming too expensive, lowering quality, or not meeting other key infrastructure design requirements. These findings demonstrate that adaptation measures that seek to reduce exposure to water scarcity can impact aspects of adaptive capacity, and shift

  11. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  12. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  13. Danish Translation and Cultural Adaption of the 9-Item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9) patient version

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hulbæk, Mette; Jørgensen, Marianne Johansson; Primdahl, Jette

    Background and aims Measure instruments that measure the extent to which patients are involved in the process of decision-making are developed and validated and being used worldwide. So far, no validated self-report instrument for the shared decision making (SDM) process is available in Denmark....... The German 9-item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9, patient version) is used to measure the extent to which patients are involved in the process of decision-making. The questionnaire can be used in both research and clinical practice. It can be used when there are several treatment options...... for a particular disease and can be implemented for purposes of evaluation and quality improvement in health care. It has been translated into 17 languages, thus it can be suitable for comparing results internationally. The aim was to translate and cultural adapt a Danish translation of the SDM-Q-9 patient version...

  14. Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion

    2014-01-01

    on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...... and weaknesses of a Nordic strategy for adaptation? In order to answer these two questions, this paper examines reviews the current national adaptation policies of each Nordic country and discusses the challenges facing a Nordic strategy and finally assesses the potential for common Nordic adaptation policy...

  15. The psychological and neurological bases of leader self-complexity and effects on adaptive decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Sean T; Balthazard, Pierre A; Waldman, David A; Jennings, Peter L; Thatcher, Robert W

    2013-05-01

    Complex contexts and environments require leaders to be highly adaptive and to adjust their behavioral responses to meet diverse role demands. Such adaptability may be contingent upon leaders having requisite complexity to facilitate effectiveness across a range of roles. However, there exists little empirical understanding of the etiology or basis of leader complexity. To this end, we conceptualized a model of leader self-complexity that is inclusive of both the mind (the complexity of leaders' self-concepts) and the brain (the neuroscientific basis for complex leadership). We derived psychometric and neurologically based measures, the latter based on quantitative electroencephalogram (qEEG) profiles of leader self-complexity, and tested their separate effects on the adaptive decision-making of 103 military leaders. Results demonstrated that both measures accounted for unique variance in external ratings of adaptive decision-making. We discuss how these findings provide a deeper understanding of the latent and dynamic mechanisms that underpin leaders' self-complexity and their adaptability. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eikelboom, T.; Janssen, R.

    2017-01-01

    Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation

  17. Supporting adaptation decisions to address climate related impacts and hazards in the Caribbean (the CARIWIG project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Aidan

    2015-04-01

    Managers and policy makers from regional and national institutions in the Caribbean require knowledge of the likely impacts and hazards arising from the present and future climate that are specific to their responsibility and geographical range, and relevant to their planning time-horizons. Knowledge, experience and the political support to develop appropriate adaptation strategies are also required. However, the climate information available for the region is of limited use as: observational records are intermittent and typically of short duration; climate model projections of the weather suffer from scale and bias issues; and statistical downscaling to provide locally relevant unbiased climate change information remains sporadic. Tropical cyclone activity is a considerable sporadic hazard in the region and yet related weather information is limited to historic events. Further, there is a lack of guidance for managers and policy makers operating with very limited resources to utilize such information within their remit. The CARIWIG project (June 2012 - May 2015) will be presented, reflecting on stakeholder impact, best practice and lessons learned. This project seeks to address the climate service needs of the Caribbean region through a combination of capacity building and improved provision of climate information services. An initial workshop with regional-scale stakeholders initiated a dialogue to develop a realistic shared vision of the needed information services which could be provided by the project. Capacity building is then achieved on a number of levels: knowledge and expertise sharing between project partners; raising understanding and knowledge of resources that support national and regional institutions' adaptation decisions; developing case studies in key sectors to test and demonstrate the information services; training for stakeholder technical staff in the use of the provided services; the development of a support network within and out

  18. Moderate social sensitivity in a risky context supports adaptive decision-making in adolescence: Evidence from brain and behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hoorn, Jorien; McCormick, Ethan M; Telzer, Eva H

    2018-02-24

    Adolescence is a time of increased social-affective sensitivity, which is often related to heightened health-risk behaviors. However, moderate levels of social sensitivity, relative to either low (social vacuum) or high levels (exceptionally attuned), may confer benefits as it facilitates effective navigation of the social world. The present fMRI study tested a curvilinear relationship between social sensitivity and adaptive decision-making. Participants (ages 12-16; N = 35) played the Social Analogue Risk Task (SART), which measures participants' willingness to knock on doors in order to earn points. With each knock, the facial expression of the house's resident shifted from happy to somewhat angrier. If the resident became too angry, the door slammed and participants lost points. Social sensitivity was defined as the extent to which adolescents adjusted their risky choices based on shifting facial expressions. Results confirmed a curvilinear relationship between social sensitivity and self-reported adaptive decision-making at the behavioral and neural level. Moderate adolescent social sensitivity was modulated via heightened tracking of social cues in the TPJ, insula and dlPFC and related to adaptive decision-making. These findings suggest that social-affective sensitivity may positively impact outcomes in adolescence and have implications for interventions to help adolescents reach mature social goals into adulthood.

  19. Adaptive Iterative Soft-Input Soft-Output Parallel Decision-Feedback Detectors for Asynchronous Coded DS-CDMA Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Wei

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The optimum and many suboptimum iterative soft-input soft-output (SISO multiuser detectors require a priori information about the multiuser system, such as the users' transmitted signature waveforms, relative delays, as well as the channel impulse response. In this paper, we employ adaptive algorithms in the SISO multiuser detector in order to avoid the need for this a priori information. First, we derive the optimum SISO parallel decision-feedback detector for asynchronous coded DS-CDMA systems. Then, we propose two adaptive versions of this SISO detector, which are based on the normalized least mean square (NLMS and recursive least squares (RLS algorithms. Our SISO adaptive detectors effectively exploit the a priori information of coded symbols, whose soft inputs are obtained from a bank of single-user decoders. Furthermore, we consider how to select practical finite feedforward and feedback filter lengths to obtain a good tradeoff between the performance and computational complexity of the receiver.

  20. Examining Challenges Related to the Production of Actionable Climate Knowledge for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Focus on Climate Knowledge System Producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.

    2017-12-01

    Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally

  1. Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Robert; Geisler, Sandra; Spreckelsen, Cord

    2013-01-07

    Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients' condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients' preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient's recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach serves to compare these

  2. Application of Structured Decision Making to an Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options for Sustainable Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aynslie E. Ogden

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A logical starting point for climate change adaptation in the forest sector is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This should be followed by implementation of these options and monitoring their success in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context. Here, we implement an approach to identify locally appropriate adaptation options by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners while at the same time, building capacity within this community to implement the results. We engaged 30 forest practitioners who are involved with the implementation of a regional forest management plan in identifying climate change vulnerabilities and evaluating alternative adaptation options. A structured decision-making approach was used to frame the assessment. Practitioners identified 24 adaptation options that they considered important to implement in order to achieve the regional goals and objectives of sustainable forest management in light of climate change.

  3. Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

  4. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  5. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues

    OpenAIRE

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M.

    2011-01-01

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on...

  6. The Need for Speed: Accelerating Decision Making on the 7 C’s of Adaptive Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-23

    that are able to smoothly handle multiple demands, shifting priorities and rapid change.3 Adaptive Leadership and Situational Leader Theory In...his article in Military Review, George Yeakey points out that Hersey and Blanchard’s Situational Leadership Theory (SLT) has been used by the military...Adaptive Leadership 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER COL

  7. Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Chui Betty Khong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

  8. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M

    2011-10-22

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity.

  9. How to Cope with Bias While Adapting for Inclusion in Physical Education and Sports: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutzler, Yeshayahu; Bar-Eli, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a theoretical model and practice examples of judgment and decision making bias within the context of inclusion in physical education and sports. After presenting the context of adapting for inclusion, the theoretical roots of judgment and decision are described, and are linked to the practice of physical…

  10. A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus Sauvage) Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.

    2016-01-01

    This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary

  11. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...... uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...

  12. Decisions of Pregnant Adolescents Towards Antenatal Care Attendance and Their Immediate Postpartum Adaptation: Comparison between Students and Other Occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitiyodom, Siraya

    2015-05-01

    Adolescent pregnancy is risky with multiple complications during pregnancy and the delivery period. Adolescent pregnancy among students is more risky because the mothers did not intend to get pregnant, have poor relationship with the husband and do not take care of their child themselves as in other occupations. The decisions of adolescent mothers towards antenatal care (ANC) attendance and their postpartum adaptation; comparing students with other occupations This retrospective hospital-based study used data from the records of 777 adolescent mothers who attended the adolescent postpartum clinic at Maharat Nakhon Ratchasima Hospital from January 2012 to December 2013. The data were classified into students and other occupation groups. Their decisions for ANC attendance, spousal relationship, pregnancy intentions, family acceptance and postpartum adaptation (contraceptive decision, decision for taking care of baby and returning to study) from both groups were compared and analyzed. The prevalence of student mothers was 63.3% of all adolescent pregnancies. The following factors were more common in student mothers with statistical significance, odd ratio (95% confidence interval): unintended pregnancy 3.66 (2.45-5.47), family non-acceptance 1.71 (1.03-2.93), poor ANC (no ANC and ANC after 12 weeks) 22.82 (14.33-37.34). Other factors including no ANC attendance, decision for taking care of the baby, contraceptive decision (before and after deliveries), and the contraceptive method was no different between the groups. After delivery, adolescents decided to return to their studies; 58.7% for students and 33.3% for other occupation groups. Students account for 63.3% of all adolescent pregnancies. None of them was married so the majority did not intend to be pregnant and not be accepted by their families, leading to poor ANC attendance. Half of them decided to return to their studies. Further studies should be prospectively performed at schools to see the true prevalence

  13. Adaptive mastery testing using the Rasch model and Bayesian sequential decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Vos, Hendrik J.

    1998-01-01

    A version of sequential mastery testing is studied in which response behavior is modeled by an item response theory (IRT) model. First, a general theoretical framework is sketched that is based on a combination of Bayesian sequential decision theory and item response theory. A discussion follows on

  14. Critique, Explore, Compare, and Adapt (CECA): A New Model for Command Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-01

    decision making process of commanders for roughly 50 years. Also called the Boyd Loop in honour of James Boyd, the man who formulated the theory, the OODA...Cambridge University Press. 50. Radecki, C. M., & Jaccard , J. (1995). Perceptions of knowledge, actual knowledge, and information search behavior

  15. Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ting Liu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A brain-computer interface (BCI creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This

  16. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  17. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  18. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

  19. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broom, Donald M

    2006-01-01

    The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and

  1. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  2. Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

    2014-07-01

    The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind. © 2014 ARVO.

  3. Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

    2014-01-01

    The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind. PMID:24986186

  4. Studies and Application of Adaptive Decision Aiding in Anti-Submarine Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-04-01

    Enaineering’ P yo Program, Code 456 AV~Se W@0077 Inoy Stree Aringft, Vignia 2M21 M r"CEPRTRNICS NOTES The views and conclusions contained in this document...functions between man and machine in a way which optimizes their respective strengths. Computer techniques can also provide computational aids for...aid (1) significantly improves operator consistency, (2) significantly improves decision quality, (3) reduces inter-operator variability, and (4

  5. Adaptation to new nutritional environments: larval performance, foraging decisions, and adult oviposition choices in Drosophila suzukii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Soares, Nuno F; Nogueira-Alves, A; Beldade, P; Mirth, Christen Kerry

    2017-06-07

    Understanding how species adapt to new niches is a central issue in evolutionary ecology. Nutrition is vital for the survival of all organisms and impacts species fitness and distribution. While most Drosophila species exploit rotting plant parts, some species have diversified to use ripe fruit, allowing earlier colonization. The decomposition of plant material is facilitated by yeast colonization and proliferation. These yeasts serve as the main protein source for Drosophila larvae. This dynamic rotting process entails changes in the nutritional composition of the food and other properties, and animals feeding on material at different stages of decay are expected to have behavioural and nutritional adaptations. We compared larval performance, feeding behaviour and adult oviposition site choice between the ripe fruit colonizer and invasive pest Drosophila suzukii, and a closely-related rotting fruit colonizer, Drosophila biarmipes. Through the manipulation of protein:carbohydrate ratios in artificial diets, we found that D. suzukii larvae perform better at lower protein concentrations and consume less protein rich diets relative to D. biarmipes. For adult oviposition, these species differed in preference for substrate hardness, but not for the substrate nutritional composition. Our findings highlight that rather than being an exclusive specialist on ripe fruit, D. suzukii's adaptation to use ripening fruit allow it to colonize a wider range of food substrates than D. biarmipes, which is limited to soft foods with higher protein concentrations. Our results underscore the importance of nutritional performance and feeding behaviours in the colonization of new food niches.

  6. Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking: Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process. PMID:24244527

  7. Decision making in concurrent multitasking: do people adapt to task interference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menno Nijboer

    Full Text Available While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.

  8. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  9. When genome integrity and cell cycle decisions collide: roles of polo kinases in cellular adaptation to DNA damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Diego; D'Amours, Damien

    2014-09-01

    The drive to proliferate and the need to maintain genome integrity are two of the most powerful forces acting on biological systems. When these forces enter in conflict, such as in the case of cells experiencing DNA damage, feedback mechanisms are activated to ensure that cellular proliferation is stopped and no further damage is introduced while cells repair their chromosomal lesions. In this circumstance, the DNA damage response dominates over the biological drive to proliferate, and may even result in programmed cell death if the damage cannot be repaired efficiently. Interestingly, the drive to proliferate can under specific conditions overcome the DNA damage response and lead to a reactivation of the proliferative program in checkpoint-arrested cells. This phenomenon is known as adaptation to DNA damage and is observed in all eukaryotic species where the process has been studied, including normal and cancer cells in humans. Polo-like kinases (PLKs) are critical regulators of the adaptation response to DNA damage and they play key roles at the interface of cell cycle and checkpoint-related decisions in cells. Here, we review recent progress in defining the specific roles of PLKs in the adaptation process and how this conserved family of eukaryotic kinases can integrate the fundamental need to preserve genomic integrity with effective cellular proliferation.

  10. Statistical Learning and Adaptive Decision-Making Underlie Human Response Time Variability in Inhibitory Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning eMa

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Response time (RT is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task, in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop, and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay, with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop and SSD. The human behavioral data (n=20 bear out this prediction, showing P(stop and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  11. Adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    . Dar es Salaam. Durban. Bloemfontein. Antananarivo. Cape Town. Ifrane ... program strategy. A number of CCAA-supported projects have relevance to other important adaptation-related themes such as disaster preparedness and climate.

  12. Decision-support for climate change adaptation – applications for coastal regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    This Ph.D. project aims at developing a new decision-support framework for managing climate change in coastal areas. The framework is developed in order to facilitate screening of climate change impacts in all coastal areas worldwide and is designed as a complete system for combined multi......-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management. The framework addresses the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding and can be used for hazard management at local, regional and national level. It is developed as a simple system that can be applied in areas with limited...... data availability and institutional capacity and is especially targeted the needs of developing countries. In order to make the framework easily accessible to coastal managers, it is designed as a graphical tool – the Coastal Hazard Wheel – that functions as a key for determining the characteristics...

  13. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.

    2002-01-01

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  14. Adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  15. Complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC using highly adaptive fast mode decision based on macroblock motion activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdellah, Skoudarli; Mokhtar, Nibouche; Amina, Serir

    2015-11-01

    The H.264/AVC video coding standard is used in a wide range of applications from video conferencing to high-definition television according to its high compression efficiency. This efficiency is mainly acquired from the newly allowed prediction schemes including variable block modes. However, these schemes require a high complexity to select the optimal mode. Consequently, complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC encoder has recently become a very challenging task in the video compression domain, especially when implementing the encoder in real-time applications. Fast mode decision algorithms play an important role in reducing the overall complexity of the encoder. In this paper, we propose an adaptive fast intermode algorithm based on motion activity, temporal stationarity, and spatial homogeneity. This algorithm predicts the motion activity of the current macroblock from its neighboring blocks and identifies temporal stationary regions and spatially homogeneous regions using adaptive threshold values based on content video features. Extensive experimental work has been done in high profile, and results show that the proposed source-coding algorithm effectively reduces the computational complexity by 53.18% on average compared with the reference software encoder, while maintaining the high-coding efficiency of H.264/AVC by incurring only 0.097 dB in total peak signal-to-noise ratio and 0.228% increment on the total bit rate.

  16. Older Adults Making End of Life Decisions: An Application of Roy's Adaptation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The purpose of this study was to identify variables that influenced completion of advanced directives in the context of adaptation from national data in older adults. Knowledge gained from this study would help us identify factors that might influence end of life discussions and shed light on strategies on effective communication on advance care planning. Design and Method. A model-testing design and path analysis were used to examine secondary data from 938 participants. Items were extracted from the data set to correspond to variables for this study. Scales were constructed and reliabilities were tested. Results. The final path model showed that physical impairment, self-rated health, continuing to work, and family structure had direct and indirect effects on completion of advanced directives. Five percent of the variance was accounted for by the path analysis. Conclusion. The variance accounted for by the model was small. This could have been due to the use of secondary data and limitations imposed for measurement. However, health care providers and families should explore patient’s perception of self-health as well as their family and work situation in order to strategize a motivational discussion on advance directive or end of life care planning.

  17. Adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Nairobi, Kenya. 28 Adapting Fishing Policy to Climate Change with the Aid of Scientific and Endogenous Knowledge. Cap Verde, Gambia,. Guinea, Guinea Bissau,. Mauritania and Senegal. Environment and Development in the Third World. (ENDA-TM). Dakar, Senegal. 29 Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk ...

  18. Variation in Hospital Length of Stay : Do Physicians Adapt Their Length of Stay Decisions to What Is Usual in the Hospital Where They Work?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, Judith D. de; Westert, Gert P.; Lagoe, Ronald; Groenewegen, Peter P.

    2006-01-01

    Objective. To test the hypothesis that physicianswho work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. Data Sources. Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and ResearchCooperative System (SPARCS). SPARCS

  19. Variation in hospital length of stay: do physicians adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital where they work?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, J.D. de; Westert, G.P.; Lagoe, R.; Groenewegen, P.P.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that physicians who work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS).

  20. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  1. Decisions, Decisions!

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, F. Lee

    1975-01-01

    A self-instructional program on decision making was used in conjunction with workshops to introduce the staff of an instructional materials company to the decision tree process as they used it to study their own film production problem. (Author/MS)

  2. Low Impact Development Planning and Adaptation Decision-Making under Climate Change for a Community against Pluvial Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Yuan Chen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study integrates and develops methods, namely low impact development (LID selection method and an LID spatial planning model, to enable decision-making to minimize pluvial flooding for a community. The objective is to minimize the flood risk under the worst case of the design storm within the budget constraints. Design storms in current and future climate scenarios are analyzed as input to the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM. Then, LID practices are selected based on the proposed procedure and a spatial planning model is built to identify the optimal LID layouts using the simulated annealing (SA algorithm. The lower and upper bounds of the generated rainfall intensities of a five-year 1-h duration design storms for the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 for the atmosphere and oceans (HadGEM2-AO, the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-ME, and the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM (CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 during 2021–2040 are derived. The LID selection helps efficiently identify appropriate LID. Results show that nearly no flood occurs under the optimal LID layouts found by the LID spatial planning model. Moreover, it is more optimal to invest in LID in the lower sub-catchments in LID planning when the budget is limited. These methods are generally applicable for a community using LIDs as adaptation measures against pluvial flooding.

  3. Real World Data in Adaptive Biomedical Innovation: A Framework for Generating Evidence Fit for Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeweiss, S; Eichler, H-G; Garcia-Altes, A; Chinn, C; Eggimann, A-V; Garner, S; Goettsch, W; Lim, R; Löbker, W; Martin, D; Müller, T; Park, B J; Platt, R; Priddy, S; Ruhl, M; Spooner, A; Vannieuwenhuyse, B; Willke, R J

    2016-12-01

    Analyses of healthcare databases (claims, electronic health records [EHRs]) are useful supplements to clinical trials for generating evidence on the effectiveness, harm, use, and value of medical products in routine care. A constant stream of data from the routine operation of modern healthcare systems, which can be analyzed in rapid cycles, enables incremental evidence development to support accelerated and appropriate access to innovative medicines. Evidentiary needs by regulators, Health Technology Assessment, payers, clinicians, and patients after marketing authorization comprise (1) monitoring of medication performance in routine care, including the materialized effectiveness, harm, and value; (2) identifying new patient strata with added value or unacceptable harms; and (3) monitoring targeted utilization. Adaptive biomedical innovation (ABI) with rapid cycle database analytics is successfully enabled if evidence is meaningful, valid, expedited, and transparent. These principles will bring rigor and credibility to current efforts to increase research efficiency while upholding evidentiary standards required for effective decision-making in healthcare. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  4. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  5. The Formation of Rational and Irrational Behaviors in Risky Investment Decision Making: Laboratory Experiment of Coping Theory Implication in Investors’ Adaptation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Wendy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control, investors tended to adapt the profit maximizing strategy (rational. Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control, three (threat-high control and four (threat-low control, they tended to adapt the profit satisfying strategy (rational-emotional, bad news handling strategy (emotional-rational, and self-preserving strategy (irrational respectively. The application of rational strategies are intended to obtain personal benefits and profit, while adapting irrational strategy is intended to recover emotional stability and reduce some other tensions. Another finding showed that for the investors, the relatively irrational decision formation was "harder" than that of rational.

  6. The Logic of Adaptive Behavior - Knowledge Representation and Algorithms for the Markov Decision Process Framework in First-Order Domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Otterlo, M.

    2008-01-01

    Learning and reasoning in large, structured, probabilistic worlds is at the heart of artificial intelligence. Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. Many efficient reinforcement learning and dynamic

  7. [Adapting and validating the generic instrument CollaboRATE™ to measure women's participation in health related decision-making during the reproductive process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Paulina; Contreras, Aixa; Dois, Angelina; Villarroel, Luis

    2017-07-28

    There is a worldwide interest in involving patients in health related decisions, so patients can actively search for therapeutic options and choose course of action that allows them to have better quality of life and wellbeing. The majority of the instruments available to capture the degree of participation in medical decision-making are in English and have been developed in high income countries. To adapt and validate for the Chilean context the instrument CollaboRATE™, to measure women's participation in medical decisions during the reproductive process. Cross-sectional study to adapt and validate the instrument CollaboRATE™. Maternity units in Santiago, Chile. Puerperal women in maternity units of three public hospitals. Translation and back-translation, cultural and linguistic relevance with service users and final revision by experts. Study for validation with 90 puerperal women. The Chilean version of CollaboRATE™ demonstrated to be a reliable instrument to capture the degree of patients' participation in medical decision-making. Cronbach alpha was above 0.89. This study provides the first instrument to capture the prevalence of SDM in a Latin American country. This instrument will be critical in future research efforts that seek to explore to what extent people are being involved in the decisions related to their healthcare. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  8. Peircean Theory, Psychosemiotics, and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Howard A.

    2005-01-01

    The main aim of this article is to describe central elements of, and the relationships among, three interrelated domains of inquiry. The first domain is Charles Peirce's semiotic theory which offers five concepts of special relevance to the other two domains: (a) primary components of the triadic sign, including the object, representamen, and…

  9. Can Social Capital influence Smallholder Farmers’ Climate-Change Adaptation Decisions? Evidence from Three Semi-Arid Communities in Burkina Faso, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas B. Yaméogo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the influence of farmers’ social capital on their decisions to deal with climate change and climate variability in Burkina Faso. The study is based on a household survey conducted among 450 households, randomly selected from three communities in Burkina Faso. Two indexes were constructed to capture farmers’ structural and cognitive social capital; and using generalized Poisson regression (GPR and a multivariate probit model, the study probes the effect of farmers’ social capital on their choice of adaptation alternatives, the number of adaptation practices used, and the extent to which adaptation measures were applied. The results indicated that the effect of social capital depends on the type of indicator used and on the type of adaptation strategies necessary. Farmers’ cognitive social capital was significantly and positively related to their choice of soil and water conservation techniques (SWCT, and techniques such as agroforestry and irrigation. Structural social capital, on the other hand, was positively associated with the adoption of new varieties and conservation tillage strategies and negatively associated with the use of a crop-diversification strategy. The results also highlighted that socio-economic, institutional and agro-ecological variables determine farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change.

  10. The film adaptation as an intersemiotic translation procedure: the "Budapeste" case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janaína Guedes Milanez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on the semiotic theories of American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce, this article analyzes Walter Carvalho and Rita Buzzar’s film adaptation of the novel Budapeste, by Chico Buarque (2003. According to Peirce, a sign is anything that can take the place of something else in any situation — in this sense, in a representation context. If the sign is a representation device, we use it to make translation processes, that is, we put a sign in place of another sign so that we are able to relate to reality through language. An important issue, from this theoretical point of view, is to question how film adaptations, translations of translations, are related to literary texts. For the reading that we propose, from a semiotic perspective, we shall apply the most famous Peircean classes of signs (icon, index and symbol, considering their functionality, but we shall mainly use the icon category, because of its property of representing based on similarity relations between signs and their objects. The hypothesis we are considering initially is that, in both narratives in issue (the literary and the film one, the mirror metaphor, or the duplication metaphor, can be self-referential ones, taking part in a labyrinthine game of digressions and interruptions in the plot, which is an attempt to deconstruct the verisimilitude and so is also an icon of the fictional subject. In order to explore the analytical potential of the Peircean categories, we shall discuss the film adaptation as an intersemiotic process, trying to find out which interpretation of the novel is in the filmmaker’s reading, following the clues of this translation process and considering the implications of Peirce typology to a theoretical-critical appreciation of the film.

  11. [The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

    2015-03-01

    To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

    2011-01-01

    Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

  13. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  14. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kertzscher, Gustavo, E-mail: guke@dtu.dk; Andersen, Claus E., E-mail: clan@dtu.dk [Centre for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark, DTU Nutech, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Tanderup, Kari, E-mail: karitand@rm.dk [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital and Institute of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Norrebrogade 44, DK-8000 Aarhus (Denmark)

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  15. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kertzscher, Gustavo; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  16. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  17. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-06-01

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  18. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-06-01

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  19. Evaluation Within the Scope of Standa rdization and Adaptation of the Product Decisions Strategies Implemented by Unilever Knorr in the Turkish Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Begüm Şahin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization

  20. Standardisation vs. adaption : a conjoint experiment on the influence of psychic, cultural and geographical distance on international marketing mix decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraus, Sascha; Meier, Fabian; Eggers, Felix; Bouncken, Ricarda B.; Schuessler, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This paper delivers new insights into how psychic, cultural and geographical distance influence international marketing mix decisions on the basis of a choice-based conjoint analysis with 96 managers from Switzerland and Liechtenstein. In this experiment, the managers had to decide whether the four

  1. Coping with climate change uncertainty for adaptation planning: An improved criterion for decision making under uncertainty using UKCP09

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Green

    2014-01-01

    Analyses using sub-samples of the complete probabilistic dataset showed that the Green Z-score had comparable reproducibility to Laplace and improved reproducibility compared to other current decision criteria, and unlike Laplace is able to accommodate different risk attitudes.

  2. Conflict adaptation within but not across NoGo decision criteria: Event-related-potential evidence of specificity in the contextual modulation of cognitive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Julia L; Clark, Sheri L; Freitas, Antonio L

    2015-07-01

    From the standpoint of conflict-monitoring theory (Botvinick et al., 2001), detecting an incident of information-processing conflict should attenuate the disruptive influence of information-processing conflicts encountered subsequently, by which time cognitive-control operations will have been engaged. To examine the generality of this conflict-adaptation process across task dimensions, the present research analyzed event-related potentials in a Go/NoGo task that randomly varied the NoGo decision criterion applied across trials. Sequential analyses revealed reduced-amplitude fronto-central N2 and NoGo P3 responses on the second of two consecutive NoGo trials. Importantly, both of these conflict-adaptation effects were present only when the same NoGo decision criterion was applied across trials n and n-1. These findings support the theory that encountering information-processing conflict focuses attention on specific stimulus-response contingencies (Verguts & Notebaert, 2009) rather than engages general cognitive-control mechanisms (Freitas & Clark, 2015). Further implications for the generality of cognitive control are discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  4. From Algorithmic Black Boxes to Adaptive White Boxes: Declarative Decision-Theoretic Ethical Programs as Codes of Ethics

    OpenAIRE

    van Otterlo, Martijn

    2017-01-01

    Ethics of algorithms is an emerging topic in various disciplines such as social science, law, and philosophy, but also artificial intelligence (AI). The value alignment problem expresses the challenge of (machine) learning values that are, in some way, aligned with human requirements or values. In this paper I argue for looking at how humans have formalized and communicated values, in professional codes of ethics, and for exploring declarative decision-theoretic ethical programs (DDTEP) to fo...

  5. Robust Decision Making to Support Water Quality Climate Adaptation: a Case Study in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischbach, J. R.; Lempert, R. J.; Molina-Perez, E.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with state and local partners, develops watershed implementation plans designed to meet water quality standards. Climate uncertainty, along with uncertainty about future land use changes or the performance of water quality best management practices (BMPs), may make it difficult for these implementation plans to meet water quality goals. In this effort, we explored how decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) could help USEPA and its partners develop implementation plans that are more robust to future uncertainty. The study focuses on one part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the Patuxent River, which is 2,479 sq km in area, highly urbanized, and has a rapidly growing population. We simulated the contribution of stormwater contaminants from the Patuxent to the overall Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay under multiple scenarios reflecting climate and other uncertainties. Contaminants considered included nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads. The assessment included a large set of scenario simulations using the USEPA Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase V watershed model. Uncertainties represented in the analysis included 18 downscaled climate projections (based on 6 general circulation models and 3 emissions pathways), 12 land use scenarios with different population projections and development patterns, and alternative assumptions about BMP performance standards and efficiencies associated with different suites of stormwater BMPs. Finally, we developed cost estimates for each of the performance standards and compared cost to TMDL performance as a key tradeoff for future water quality management decisions. In this talk, we describe how this research can help inform climate-related decision support at USEPA's Chesapeake Bay Program, and more generally how RDM and other DMDU methods can support improved water quality management under climate

  6. The SDM 3 Circle Model: A Literature Synthesis and Adaptation for Shared Decision Making in the Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennke, Stephanie; Yuan, Patrick; Monash, Brad; Blankenburg, Rebecca; Chua, Ian; Harman, Stephanie; Sakai, Debbie S; Khan, Adeena; Hilton, Joan F; Shieh, Lisa; Satterfield, Jason

    2017-12-01

    Patient engagement through shared decision-making (SDM) is increasingly seen as a key component for patient safety, patient satisfaction, and quality of care. Current SDM models do not adequately account for medical and environmental contexts, which may influence medical decisions in the hospital. We identified leading SDM models and reviews to inductively construct a novel SDM model appropriate for the inpatient setting. A team of medicine and pediatric hospitalists reviewed the literature to integrate core SDM concepts and processes and iteratively constructed a synthesized draft model. We then solicited broad SDM expert feedback on the draft model for validation and further refinement. The SDM 3 Circle Model identifies 3 core categories of variables that dynamically interact within an "environmental frame." The resulting Venn diagram includes overlapping circles for (1) patient/family, (2) provider/team, and (3) medical context. The environmental frame includes all external, contextual factors that may influence any of the 3 circles. Existing multistep SDM process models were then rearticulated and contextualized to illustrate how a shared decision might be made. The SDM 3 Circle Model accounts for important environmental and contextual characteristics that vary across settings. The visual emphasis generated by each "circle" and by the environmental frame direct attention to often overlooked interactive forces and has the potential to more precisely define, promote, and improve SDM. This model provides a framework to develop interventions to improve quality and patient safety through SDM and patient engagement for hospitalists. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  7. Adapting an evidence-based intervention for homeless women: engaging the community in shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederbaum, Julie A; Song, Ahyoung; Hsu, Hsun-Ta; Tucker, Joan S; Wenzel, Suzanne L

    2014-11-01

    As interest grows in the diffusion of evidence-based interventions (EBIs), there is increasing concern about how to mitigate implementation challenges; this paper concerns adapting an EBI for homeless women. Complementing earlier focus groups with homeless women, homeless service providers (n = 32) were engaged in focus groups to assess capacity, needs, and barriers with implementation of EBIs. Deductive analyses of data led to the selection of four EBIs. Six consensus groups were then undertaken; three each with homeless women (n = 24) and homeless service providers (n = 21). The selected EBI was adapted and pretested with homeless women (n = 9) and service providers (n = 6). The structured consensus group process provided great utility and affirmed the expertise of homeless women and service providers as experts in their domain. Engaging providers in the selection process reduced the structural barriers within agencies as obstacles to diffusion.

  8. Climate-Adapted Soil Cultivation as an Aspect for Sustainable Farming – Task-Technology-Fit of a Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welf Guenther-Lübbers

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.

  9. Optimal Decision Fusion for Urban Land-Use/Land-Cover Classification Based on Adaptive Differential Evolution Using Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfei Zhong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral images and light detection and ranging (LiDAR data have, respectively, the high spectral resolution and accurate elevation information required for urban land-use/land-cover (LULC classification. To combine the respective advantages of hyperspectral and LiDAR data, this paper proposes an optimal decision fusion method based on adaptive differential evolution, namely ODF-ADE, for urban LULC classification. In the ODF-ADE framework the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM and digital surface model (DSM are extracted to form the feature map. The three different classifiers of the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC, support vector machine (SVM and multinomial logistic regression (MLR are used to classify the extracted features. To find the optimal weights for the different classification maps, weighted voting is used to obtain the classification result and the weights of each classification map are optimized by the differential evolution algorithm which uses a self-adaptive strategy to obtain the parameter adaptively. The final classification map is obtained after post-processing based on conditional random fields (CRF. The experimental results confirm that the proposed algorithm is very effective in urban LULC classification.

  10. The ASLOTS concept: An interactive, adaptive decision support concept for Final Approach Spacing of Aircraft (FASA). FAA-NASA Joint University Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1993-01-01

    This presentation outlines a concept for an adaptive, interactive decision support system to assist controllers at a busy airport in achieving efficient use of multiple runways. The concept is being implemented as a computer code called FASA (Final Approach Spacing for Aircraft), and will be tested and demonstrated in ATCSIM, a high fidelity simulation of terminal area airspace and airport surface operations. Objectives are: (1) to provide automated cues to assist controllers in the sequencing and spacing of landing and takeoff aircraft; (2) to provide the controller with a limited ability to modify the sequence and spacings between aircraft, and to insert takeoffs and missed approach aircraft in the landing flows; (3) to increase spacing accuracy using more complex and precise separation criteria while reducing controller workload; and (4) achieve higher operational takeoff and landing rates on multiple runways in poor visibility.

  11. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-01-01

    Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction...... of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects...... of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods:In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most...

  12. Variation in hospital length of stay: do physicians adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital where they work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Judith D; Westert, Gert P; Lagoe, Ronald; Groenewegen, Peter P

    2006-04-01

    To test the hypothesis that physicians who work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS). SPARCS is a major management tool for assisting hospitals, agencies, and health care organizations with decision making in relation to financial planning and monitoring of inpatient and ambulatory surgery services and costs in New York state. Data on length of stay for surgical interventions and medical conditions (a total of seven diagnosis-related groups [DRGs]) were studied, to find out whether there is more variation between than within hospitals. Data (1999, 2000, and 2001) from all hospitals in New York state were used. The study examined physicians practicing in one hospital and physicians practicing in more than one hospital, to determine whether average length of stay differs according to the hospital of practice. Multilevel models were used to determine variation between and within hospitals. A t-test was used to test whether length of stay for patients of each multihospital physician differed from the average length of stay in each of the two hospitals. There is significantly (phospitals in most of the study populations. Physicians working in two hospitals had patient lengths of stay comparable with the usual practice in the hospital where the procedure was performed. The proportion of physicians working in one hospital did not have a consistent effect for all DRGs on the variation within hospitals. Physicians adapt to their colleagues or to the managerial demands of the particular hospital in which they work. The hospital and broader work environment should be taken into account when developing effective interventions to reduce variation in medical practice.

  13. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  14. Adaptive models for decision making in production management for thermoelectrical plants; Modelos adaptativos para suporte a decisao na gestao da producao de unidades termeletricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)

  15. Is all risk bad? Young adult cigarette smokers fail to take adaptive risk in a laboratory decision-making test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Andy C; Sugar, Catherine A; Hellemann, Gerhard; London, Edythe D

    2011-06-01

    Cigarette smoking has been linked to real-world risky behavior, but this association has been based largely on retrospective self-reports. Limitations of self-report data can be avoided by using laboratory, performance-based measures, such as the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., J Exp Psychol Appl 8:75-84, 2002). Initial studies have suggested that smokers display greater risk-taking on this task than nonsmokers, but these studies did not account for drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities, which are commonplace among smokers. We sought to examine the performance of smokers and nonsmokers on the BART after excluding drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities. We conducted a study of late adolescent/young adult (age 18 to 21) smokers (n = 26) and nonsmokers (n = 38) performing the BART and excluded individuals with positive drug or alcohol toxicology screens, substance abuse or dependence diagnoses, and/or current psychiatric conditions. Contrary to previous findings, smokers did not display greater risk-taking on the BART than nonsmokers. In fact, when performance was examined trial-by-trial, the nonsmokers displayed progressively greater pumping relative to smokers over time (p adaptive.

  16. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Fei Elmer Ker

    Full Text Available Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and

  17. Usability testing of Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) decision support for integrating care-based counseling of pre-diabetes in an electronic health record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrimes, Dillon; Kitos, Nicole R; Kushniruk, Andre; Mann, Devin M

    2014-09-01

    Usability testing can be used to evaluate human-computer interaction (HCI) and communication in shared decision making (SDM) for patient-provider behavioral change and behavioral contracting. Traditional evaluations of usability using scripted or mock patient scenarios with think-aloud protocol analysis provide a way to identify HCI issues. In this paper we describe the application of these methods in the evaluation of the Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) tool, and test the usability of the tool to support the ADAPT framework for integrated care counseling of pre-diabetes. The think-aloud protocol analysis typically does not provide an assessment of how patient-provider interactions are effected in "live" clinical workflow or whether a tool is successful. Therefore, "Near-live" clinical simulations involving applied simulation methods were used to compliment the think-aloud results. This complementary usability technique was used to test the end-user HCI and tool performance by more closely mimicking the clinical workflow and capturing interaction sequences along with assessing the functionality of computer module prototypes on clinician workflow. We expected this method to further complement and provide different usability findings as compared to think-aloud analysis. Together, this mixed method evaluation provided comprehensive and realistic feedback for iterative refinement of the ADAPT system prior to implementation. The study employed two phases of testing of a new interactive ADAPT tool that embedded an evidence-based shared goal setting component into primary care workflow for dealing with pre-diabetes counseling within a commercial physician office electronic health record (EHR). Phase I applied usability testing that involved "think-aloud" protocol analysis of eight primary care providers interacting with several scripted clinical scenarios. Phase II used "near-live" clinical simulations of five providers interacting with standardized

  18. Strategic Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation...

  19. How Firms Make Boundary Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus

    2014-01-01

    , and (b) how the firm arrived at a particular transactional choice in each decision. We find that decision makers extensively adapt decision structures in order to effectively make governance mode choices. They adapt hierarchy span, i.e. the number of hierarchical levels involved, and expertise span, i...

  20. Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SENGLAUB, MICHAEL E.; HARRIS, DAVID L.; RAYBOURN, ELAINE M.

    2001-01-01

    In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition

  1. Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiwang

    Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of

  2. An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

    2016-12-01

    One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

  3. Language and embodied consciousness: A Peircean ontological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ”.3 Each ... of, the universe. Each language is a unique worldview and the initial system of signification that one encounters is critical to subsequent developments – .... picture of a group or class of objects, formed by combining all their aspects;.

  4. Language and embodied consciousness: A Peircean ontological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effective learning needs to be as existential (and, in a sense, as experiential) as possible and that involves more the pragmatics rather than merely the semantics of words. The initial system of signification that enables one to process/grasp concepts is crucial in whatever one will do with those concepts subsequent to their ...

  5. Strategic Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation......This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related....... This model incorporates elements of central strategizing, autonomous entrepreneurial behavior, interactive information processing, and open communication systems that enhance the organization's ability to observe exogenous changes and respond effectively to them....

  6. Changes in Managerial Decision on Pond Management to Adapt to Climate Anomalies in the Coastal Area of Pare-Pare Gulf, District of Pinrang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattah, M. H.; Busaeri, S. R.; Kasnir, M.; Siswanto

    2017-08-01

    The climate anomaly was adapted through the adjustment of tiger shrimp stocking patterns and optimum use of locally endemic Phronima Suppa (PS) to suit the season. Thus, the batches period determined was adjusted to suit climate change dynamics, reducing the shrimp stocking density down to 10.000 - 15.000 per ha and applying PS so the shrimp became tolerant of any environmental stress and pathogen infection. The knowledge of adaptation to climate anomalies, a learning outcome of the field school, managed to increase the average production of tiger shrimp to 217 kg/ha with an average receipt of IDR 22.60 million/ha.

  7. The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan K. Kazak

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI, which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica, and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS. The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland. The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

  8. Split Decisions, Split Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The lead stories in Nature and Science went in opposite directions this week. Science chose outer space, launching into NASA’s hotly disputed decision to shelve a planned mission to Pluto. Nature plunged into inner space with a story about a report to the European Commission advising against granting “premature” approval to create human embryos for stem-cell research.

  9. Responsive Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    developments and feeding that information into strategic decisions will enable higher quality outcomes and better adaptive responses for persistent performance. Thus we review relevant parts of the strategic decision making literature to conceptualize the responsive decision making model and propose a study......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence......, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental...

  10. Frontiers of solution-oriented adaptation research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bisaro, A.; Swart, R.J.; Hinkel, J.

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation is heterogeneous and relevant for a range of sectors and levels of decision-making. As adaptation moves up the policy agenda, solution-oriented adaptation research requires addressing questions that are salient to stakeholders and decision-makers at various scales and involves applying a

  11. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  12. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Munaretto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decision-making tools and methods, and the literature on the governance of adaptation is in its infancy in this regard. We argue that climate adaptation governance would benefit from systematic and yet flexible decision-making tools and methods such as participatory multicriteria methods for the evaluation of adaptation options, and that these methods can be linked to key adaptive governance principles. Moving from these premises, we propose a framework that integrates key adaptive governance features into participatory multicriteria methods for the governance of climate adaptation.

  13. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  14. WE-EF-BRD-03: I Want It Now!: Advances in MRI Acquisition, Reconstruction and the Use of Priors to Enable Fast Anatomic and Physiologic Imaging to Inform Guidance and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Y. [Mayo Clinic Arizona (United States)

    2015-06-15

    MRI-guided treatment is a growing area of medicine, particularly in radiotherapy and surgery. The exquisite soft tissue anatomic contrast offered by MRI, along with functional imaging, makes the use of MRI during therapeutic procedures very attractive. Challenging the utility of MRI in the therapy room are many issues including the physics of MRI and the impact on the environment and therapeutic instruments, the impact of the room and instruments on the MRI; safety, space, design and cost. In this session, the applications and challenges of MRI-guided treatment will be described. The session format is: Past, present and future: MRI-guided radiotherapy from 2005 to 2025: Jan Lagendijk Battling Maxwell’s equations: Physics challenges and solutions for hybrid MRI systems: Paul Keall I want it now!: Advances in MRI acquisition, reconstruction and the use of priors to enable fast anatomic and physiologic imaging to inform guidance and adaptation decisions: Yanle Hu MR in the OR: The growth and applications of MRI for interventional radiology and surgery: Rebecca Fahrig Learning Objectives: To understand the history and trajectory of MRI-guided radiotherapy To understand the challenges of integrating MR imaging systems with linear accelerators To understand the latest in fast MRI methods to enable the visualisation of anatomy and physiology on radiotherapy treatment timescales To understand the growing role and challenges of MRI for image-guided surgical procedures My disclosures are publicly available and updated at: http://sydney.edu.au/medicine/radiation-physics/about-us/disclosures.php.

  15. Understanding adaptation decisions in Morocco's plains and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... While their project activities address the information gap through training workshops, exchanges, and demonstrations, Chriyaa is encouraged that: “Local authorities and elected representatives are well aware of the potential impacts of climate change on their environments, and of the need for individual ...

  16. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-31

    Arlington, VA 22203-1995 703-696-2875 jeffrey.g.morrison@navy.mil Report Prepared By: Thomas G. Allen Boston Fusion Corp. 1 Van de Graaff ...NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Boston Fusion Corp.,,1 Van de Graaff Drive, Suite 107,,Burlington,,MA,01803 8...analysis; o Identification of key researchers in quantitative analysis to recommend for workshop participation; o Generation of presentation and

  17. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...

  18. Behavioural mechanisms and adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nigussie, Yalemzewd

    2017-01-01

    The literature on climate change adaptation in developing countries focused on the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of adaptation decisions to climate change. Decision behavioural among others is thought to influence the path of innovation uptake related to climate change. We need to

  19. Economics of Climate Change Adaptation | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Literature on the economics of climate change adaptation - especially in developing countries - is generally scarce, and this weakens the premise on which adaptation decisions are made. Moreover, there is no standard framework or toolkit to guide researchers and policymakers in this kind of decision-making. This grant ...

  20. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  1. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  2. Decision Making and Revealed Preference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

    If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

  3. Failing Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... as a controlled cost for achieving organizational goals. Decisions must fail so the organization can succeed. This chapter uses two cases to elaborate on these ideas. By way of introduction, I will reflect on the notion of ‘failing decisions’ within organization and decision theory. This chapter is also propelled...

  4. Organizational Decision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    in architectural competitions and claim that they reflect necessity more than vice. They are ways around the fundamental incommensurability of the alternative design proposals. The garbage can model is used as a framework for making sense of the observed counterintuitive ways of decision making. Its attempt...

  5. Adaptation: Needs, Financing and Institutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))

    2008-07-01

    the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

  6. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial lighting ceases...

  7. Peircean Logic as Semiotic and Biosemiotics as Transdisciplinary Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brier, Søren

    qualitative and quantitative methods. Herby it represents a unity of science that the logical positivist could not produce and oters an alternative to constructivist postmodernism's many incommensurable small stories. So what is the ontology that makes such a common framework for quantitative and qualitative...... and dialectics with his triadic semiotic logic. It is based on his three phaneroscopic (phenomenological) categories and views logic as semiotic and as a normative science for right thinking. He integrates this with empirical quantitative science, since he was educated as a chemist and did empirical work...

  8. Learning and Teaching Critical Thinking: From a Peircean Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Kelley

    2009-01-01

    The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…

  9. Multiobjective Genetic Programming of Agent Decision Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Šlapák, M.; Neruda, R. (Roman)

    2014-01-01

    This work describes a method to control a behaviour of intelligent data mining agent We developed an adaptive decision making system that utilizes genetic programming technique to evolve an agent’s decision strategy. The parameters of data mining task and current state of an agent are taken into account by tree structures evolved by genetic programming. Efficiency of decision strategies is compared from the perspectives of single and multi criteria optimization.

  10. Organizational Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    traders reach diametrically opposite decisions, to buy what thousands of others are offering to sell. The traders, differ in objectives, differ in...differentiation among them is sought to make the final choise easier. This differentiation effort "leads to a search for new information, not...of the organization. Sales promotions to stimulate purchases during off-seasons are illustrations often used to stimulate buying . Utilities provide

  11. Nuclear decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischhoff, B.

    1991-01-01

    This attempts to identify the role of judgmental processes in various nuclear arms/war decisions. That task analysis is done with some confidence. The next two steps, diagnosing potential weaknesses in those judgments and suggesting ameliorative procedures, are done with increasing timidity. The empirical research base is not (ever) as large as one would like. It is particularly weak with regard to studies of experts forced to go beyond hard data and rely on intuitive judgments within their field of expertise. further evidence is needed to substantiate the claim that experts think like everyone else unless they have had the opportunity to master a particular kind of judgment as a learned skill. Although there is both theoretical and empirical reason to believe that various forms of decision aiding are possible, the high stakes involved mandate caution before proposing any intervention. Ineffective steps may make matters worse if they raise confidence without improving performance, or if they disrupt the cognitive ecology within which decision makers are accustomed to functioning, so that they lose touch with their own imperfect intuitions without acquiring viable alternatives

  12. Decision analysis using decision trees for a simple clinical decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakley, Brian

    2012-10-01

    To illustrate the use of decision trees with a utility index in clinical decision making. A decision tree was created related to whether or not to perform a tonsillectomy. Data from the literature were applied to a common hypothetical clinical scenario. A decision tree graphically represents the typical decision-making process that many clinicians use. The addition of utility functions permitted consideration of the adverse or beneficial effects of outcomes, altering the treatment decision. Quantitative tools such as decision trees may quantify outcome preferences and aid in clinical decision making, but the proper tool and background data are essential.

  13. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  14. Procedural Rationality in the Decision-Making of Internationalizing SMEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose

    ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow...... a more rational decision-making procedure when they perceive a high level of international risk. The evidence also suggest that internationalization performance, planned internationalization, credit check, and decision team size are positively related to procedural rationality....

  15. Situating adaptation: How governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence adaptation in the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel Murphy; Daniel R. Williams

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation is situated within multiple, interacting social, political, and economic forces. Adaptation pathways envision adaptation as a continual pathway of change and response embedded within this broader sociopolitical context. Pathways emphasize that current decisions are both informed by past actions and shape the landscape of future options. This research...

  16. Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, J. Angus; Watts, Robyn J.; Allan, Catherine; Conallin, John C.

    2018-03-01

    Adaptive management enables managers to work with complexity and uncertainty, and to respond to changing biophysical and social conditions. Amid considerable uncertainty over the benefits of environmental flows, governments are embracing adaptive management as a means to inform decision making. This Special Issue of Environmental Management presents examples of adaptive management of environmental flows and addresses claims that there are few examples of its successful implementation. It arose from a session at the 11th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics held in Australia, and is consequently dominated by papers from Australia. We classified the papers according to the involvement of researchers, managers and the local community in adaptive management. Five papers report on approaches developed by researchers, and one paper on a community-led program; these case studies currently have little impact on decision making. Six papers provide examples involving water managers and researchers, and two papers provide examples involving water managers and the local community. There are no papers where researchers, managers and local communities all contribute equally to adaptive management. Successful adaptive management of environmental flows occurs more often than is perceived. The final paper explores why successes are rarely reported, suggesting a lack of emphasis on reflection on management practices. One major challenge is to increase the documentation of successful adaptive management, so that benefits of learning extend beyond the project where it takes place. Finally, moving towards greater involvement of all stakeholders is critical if we are to realize the benefits of adaptive management for improving outcomes from environmental flows.

  17. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... the investigations of lighting scenarios carried out in two test installations: White Cube and White Box. The test installations are discussed as large-scale experiential instruments. In these test installations we examine what could potentially occur when light using LED technology is integrated and distributed...

  18. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities of the inter......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...

  19. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  20. ADAPT Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) Project Lead: Scott Poll Subject Fault diagnosis in electrical power systems Description The Advanced...

  1. Reprocessing decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.

    1978-01-01

    The United States must decide whether to permit, delay, or prohibit the reprocessing and recycling of nuclear spent fuel. To permit reprocessing would allow recycle as early as 1985; to delay the decision for a later administration to deal with means spent fuel would mount up at nuclear reactor sites; to prohibit would eliminate recycling and mandate permanent storage. Bayesian decision analysis was used to examine reprocessing costs associated with risks and economic benefits. Three distinct categories of risk that are important in the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed. These are: health, environment, and safety risks; nuclear theft and sabotage; and nuclear weapons proliferation risks. Results are discussed from comparing nine routes to weapons-usuable mterial available to nonweapons states that desire a nuclear capability. These are: production reactor and military reporcessor; research reacotr and military reprocessor; power plant plus military reprocessor or commercial reprocessor; enrichment (centrifuge, gaseous diffusion, electromagnetic separation, or aerodynamic jet cascade); and accelerator. It was found that the commercial power reactor-commercial reprocessor route is comparatively unattractive to a nonweapons state. In summary, allowing nuclear fuel reprocessing to go forward in the United States can be expected to increase the costs to society by a maximum $360 million a year. This is approximately one-seventh of the expected benefit (reduced electricity bills) to be dderived by society from closing the fuel cycle. It appears that the permitting reprocessing now is logically preferable to delaying or prohibiting the technology, the author concludes

  2. Adaptation Stories

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    By Reg'

    formed a real foundation for endogenous, and, therefore, sustainable, strategies for adaptation to climate change. The stories reinforce what we already knew: that successful adaptation must come from the people who are living on the front lines, facing the many problems caused by climate change and climate variation.

  3. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  4. Group Decision Process Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  5. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  6. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-01-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases

  7. Toothbrush Adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exceptional Parent, 1987

    1987-01-01

    Suggestions are presented for helping disabled individuals learn to use or adapt toothbrushes for proper dental care. A directory lists dental health instructional materials available from various organizations. (CB)

  8. Ambiguous Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    intense relational mechanisms provide an effective means for contingency adaptation and therefore reduce the probability of premature termination. However, in situations where relationships are already governed by longer duration contracts, we argue that investments in relational mechanism create...

  9. Ambiguous Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    We investigate why some exchange relationships terminate prematurely. We argue that investments in informal governance structures induce premature termination in relationships already governed by formal contracts. The formalized adaptive behavior of formal governance structures and the flexible...... and reciprocal adaptation of informal governance structure create ambiguity in situations of contingencies, which, subsequently, increases the likelihood of premature relationship termination. Using a large sample of exchange relationships in the global service provider industry, we find support for a hypothesis...

  10. Adaptive ethnography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berth, Mette

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of an adaptive ethnography when studying such phenomena as young people's use of mobile media in a learning perspective. Mobile media such as PDAs and mobile phones have a number of affordances which make them potential tools for learning. However, before we begin...... formal and informal learning contexts. The paper also proposes several adaptive methodological techniques for studying young people's interaction with mobiles....

  11. RODOS database adapter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Gang

    1995-11-01

    Integrated data management is an essential aspect of many automatical information systems such as RODOS, a real-time on-line decision support system for nuclear emergency management. In particular, the application software must provide access management to different commercial database systems. This report presents the tools necessary for adapting embedded SQL-applications to both HP-ALLBASE/SQL and CA-Ingres/SQL databases. The design of the database adapter and the concept of RODOS embedded SQL syntax are discussed by considering some of the most important features of SQL-functions and the identification of significant differences between SQL-implementations. Finally fully part of the software developed and the administrator's and installation guides are described. (orig.) [de

  12. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation? Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning. The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition

  13. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  14. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal and Delta Communities in Viet Nam. Decisions concerning climate change adaptation are necessarily made by local and national governments, but households, community groups and private enterprises need to be informed so that they can make decisions ...

  15. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  16. Critical concepts in adaptive clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Park JJH

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Jay JH Park,1 Kristian Thorlund,2,3 Edward J Mills2,3 1Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 2Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact (HEI, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 3The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract: Adaptive clinical trials are an innovative trial design aimed at reducing resources, decreasing time to completion and number of patients exposed to inferior interventions, and improving the likelihood of detecting treatment effects. The last decade has seen an increasing use of adaptive designs, particularly in drug development. They frequently differ importantly from conventional clinical trials as they allow modifications to key trial design components during the trial, as data is being collected, using preplanned decision rules. Adaptive designs have increased likelihood of complexity and also potential bias, so it is important to understand the common types of adaptive designs. Many clinicians and investigators may be unfamiliar with the design considerations for adaptive designs. Given their complexities, adaptive trials require an understanding of design features and sources of bias. Herein, we introduce some common adaptive design elements and biases and specifically address response adaptive randomization, sample size reassessment, Bayesian methods for adaptive trials, seamless trials, and adaptive enrichment using real examples. Keywords: adaptive designs, response adaptive randomization, sample size reassessment, Bayesian adaptive trials, seamless trials, adaptive enrichment

  17. Adaptive test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Lars Peter; Eriksen, Mette Rose

    2010-01-01

    Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale.......Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale....

  18. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

    2015-06-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and

  19. Adaptive Hedge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.A.L. van Erven (Tim); W.M. Koolen-Wijkstra (Wouter); P.D. Grünwald (Peter); S. de Rooij (Steven)

    2011-01-01

    htmlabstractMost methods for decision-theoretic online learning are based on theHedge algorithm, which takes a parameter called the learning rate. In most previous analyses the learning rate was carefully tuned to obtain optimal worst-case performance, leading to suboptimal performance on easy

  20. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning.

  1. Capturing Design Decision Rationale with Decision Cards

    OpenAIRE

    Gutierrez Lopez , Marisela; Rovelo , Gustavo; Haesen , Mieke; Luyten , Kris; Coninx , Karin

    2017-01-01

    In the design process, designers make a wide variety of decisions that are essential to transform a design from a conceptual idea into a concrete solution. Recording and tracking design decisions, a first step to capturing the rationale of the design process, are tasks that until now are considered as cumbersome and too constraining. We used a holistic approach to design, deploy, and verify decision cards; a low threshold tool to capture, externalize, and contextualize design decisions during...

  2. Adaptation is...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    IDRC

    vital sector is under threat. While it is far from the only development challenge facing local farmers, extreme variations in the climate of West Africa in the past several decades have dealt the region a bad hand. Drought and flood now follow each other in succession. Adaptation is... “The floods spoiled our harvests and we.

  3. Ambiguous Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    and reciprocal adaptation of informal governance structure create ambiguity in situations of contingencies, which, subsequently, increases the likelihood of premature relationship termination. Using a large sample of exchange relationships in the global service provider industry, we find support for a hypothesis...

  4. Adaptation Insights

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    be given greater access to relevant information to help them adapt their farming practices and socio- economic strategies to climate change? To address this challenge, the project “InfoClim,” led by Senegal's. Ecological Monitoring Centre. (CSE) with support from the. CCAA program, aims at improving the access of farmers ...

  5. Adaptive Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Kongshaug, Jesper; Søndergaard, Karin

    2015-01-01

    differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial lighting ceases...

  6. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  7. Himalayan Adaptation, Water, and Resilience | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    To help the people of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal adapt, this project will develop robust evidence to inform climate change adaptation policies and practices. ... -promote decision-makers' use of knowledge and adaptation practices at various scales to reduce vulnerabilities and build livelihood resilience; and

  8. Adaptive Optics Metrics & QC Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Julien H.

    2017-09-01

    "There are many Adaptive Optics (AO) fed instruments on Paranal and more to come. To monitor their performances and assess the quality of the scientific data, we have developed a scheme and a set of tools and metrics adapted to each flavour of AO and each data product. Our decisions to repeat observations or not depends heavily on this immediate quality control "zero" (QC0). Atmospheric parameters monitoring can also help predict performances . At the end of the chain, the user must be able to find the data that correspond to his/her needs. In Particular, we address the special case of SPHERE."

  9. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  10. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  11. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-01-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  12. Adaptation Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul

    2011-11-15

    Efforts to help the world's poor will face crises in coming decades as climate change radically alters conditions. Action Research for Community Adapation in Bangladesh (ARCAB) is an action-research programme on responding to climate change impacts through community-based adaptation. Set in Bangladesh at 20 sites that are vulnerable to floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise, ARCAB will follow impacts and adaptation as they evolve over half a century or more. National and international 'research partners', collaborating with ten NGO 'action partners' with global reach, seek knowledge and solutions applicable worldwide. After a year setting up ARCAB, we share lessons on the programme's design and move into our first research cycle.

  13. Adaptive sampler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, B.L.; Aeby, I.

    1980-08-26

    An adaptive data compression device for compressing data is described. The device has a frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.

  14. Adaptive positioner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labrador Pavon, I.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 6 refs

  15. Adaptable positioner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labrador Pavon, I.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 22 fig. 6 ref

  16. ADAPTATION EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Björn PETERS, M.Sc.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Twenty subjects with lower limb disabilities participated in a simulator study. The purpose of the study was to investigate how an Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC system together with two different hand controls for accelerator and brake influenced workload, comfort and driving behaviour and to further develop a method to evaluate vehicle adaptations for drivers with disabilities. The installed ACC system could maintain a constant speed selected and set by the driver and it also adapted speed in order to keep a safe distance to a leading vehicle. Furthermore, it included a stop-and-go function. Two common types of hand controls for accelerator and brake were used. The hand controls were different both with respect to function, single or dual levers, and position, on the steering column or between the front seats. The subjects were all experienced drivers of adapted cars equipped with hand controls. All subjects drove 100km at two occasions, with and without the ACC system available but with the same hand control. Subjective workload was found to be significantly lower and performance better for the ACC condition. The difference in speed variation between manual and ACC supported driving increased with the distance driven which seems to support the previous finding. The subjects thought they could control both speed and distance to leading vehicles better while the ACC was available. ACC driving did not influence reaction time, speed level, lateral position or variation in lateral position. Headway during car following situations was shorter for the ACC condition compared to manual driving. The ACC was well received, trusted and wanted. It was concluded that the ACC system substantially decreased workload, increased comfort and did not influence safety negatively. The only difference found between the two types of hand controls was that drivers using the dual lever system had less variation in lateral position. The applied evaluation method proved

  17. Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

  18. Decision making across the life span

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, S.C.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.; Samanez-Larkin, G.R.

    2014-01-01

    Learning to choose adaptively between different behavioral options in order to reach goals is a pervasive task in life for people of all ages. Individuals are often confronted with complex, uncertain situations that nonetheless require decisive actions that would facilitate the pursuit of short-term

  19. Prepare, Act, Reflect: Intentional Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, Judy

    1999-01-01

    Notes that teachers make intentional decisions during interaction with children and reflect on what occurs in the environment. Focuses on teacher behavior along several continua: soft-hard, simple-complex, open-closed, intrusion-seclusion, and high versus low mobility. Illustrates theory with a transcribed observation. Adapts Jones and Prescott's…

  20. Farming System Evolution and Adaptive Capacity: Insights for Adaptation Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jami L. Dixon

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Studies of climate impacts on agriculture and adaptation often provide current or future assessments, ignoring the historical contexts farming systems are situated within. We investigate how historical trends have influenced farming system adaptive capacity in Uganda using data from household surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus-group discussions and observations. By comparing two farming systems, we note three major findings: (1 similar trends in farming system evolution have had differential impacts on the diversity of farming systems; (2 trends have contributed to the erosion of informal social and cultural institutions and an increasing dependence on formal institutions; and (3 trade-offs between components of adaptive capacity are made at the farm-scale, thus influencing farming system adaptive capacity. To identify the actual impacts of future climate change and variability, it is important to recognize the dynamic nature of adaptation. In practice, areas identified for further adaptation support include: shift away from one-size-fits-all approach the identification and integration of appropriate modern farming method; a greater focus on building inclusive formal and informal institutions; and a more nuanced understanding regarding the roles and decision-making processes of influential, but external, actors. More research is needed to understand farm-scale trade-offs and the resulting impacts across spatial and temporal scales.

  1. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  2. Project Decision Chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter

    2015-01-01

    To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

  3. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  4. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

    2006-01-01

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  5. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Decisions, decisions: why the quality of medical decisions matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenthal, David

    2004-01-01

    Questions about the process leading to particular medical decisions are seldom addressed in discussions of health care quality. In some cases, strict adherence to treatment protocols may overlook important elements in the clinical decision-making process, such as physicians' judgment and patients' preferences. Papers by Annette O'Connor and colleagues and Karen Sepucha and colleagues are welcome additions to this debate because they highlight the importance of the medical decision-making process; they suggest that the quality of this process should be considered when evaluating health care quality. I explore some key limitations and uncertainties that must be addressed before work in this area can become broadly applicable.

  7. Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1994-01-01

    Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

  8. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  9. Adaptive management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rist, Lucy; Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Frost, Peter

    2013-01-01

    a management framework, as well as of identified challenges and pathologies, are needed. Further discussion and systematic assessment of the approach is required, together with greater attention to its definition and description, enabling the assessment of new approaches to managing uncertainty, and AM itself.......Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used...... in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how...

  10. Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzgerald, D.S.; Adams, D.G.

    1994-01-01

    Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ''fuzzy'' sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion

  11. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  12. Informatics perspectives on decision taking

    OpenAIRE

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for instance: plan, command, assertion, or boolean reply to a question. A decision effect is any consequence of putting a decision outcome into effect. Decision outcomes must be expected by the decider t...

  13. Learning Probabilistic Decision Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Dalgaard, Jens; Silander, Tomi

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic decision graphs (PDGs) are a representation language for probability distributions based on binary decision diagrams. PDGs can encode (context-specific) independence relations that cannot be captured in a Bayesian network structure, and can sometimes provide computationally more...

  14. Decision support systems

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana MARIN

    2008-01-01

    Decision Support Systems (DSS) are a specific class of computerized information system that supports business and organizational decision-making activities. A properly-designed DSS is an interactive software-based system intended to help decision makers compile useful information from raw data, documents, personal knowledge, and/or business models to identify and solve problems and make decisions. DSS belong to an environment with multidisciplinary foundations, including database reasearch, a...

  15. Collective decisions among bacterial viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joh, Richard; Mileyko, Yuriy; Voit, Eberhard; Weitz, Joshua

    2010-03-01

    For many temperate bacteriophages, the decision of whether to kill hosts or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of infection. In this talk, I present a quantitative model of gene regulatory dynamics to describe how phages make collective decisions within host cells. Unlike most previous studies, the copy number of viral genomes is treated as a variable. In the absence of feedback loops, viral mRNA transcription is expected to be proportional to the viral copy number. However, when there are nonlinear feedback loops in viral gene regulation, our model shows that gene expression patterns are sensitive to changes in viral copy number and there can be a domain of copy number where the system becomes bistable. Hence, the viral copy number is a key control parameter determining host cell fates. This suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and can make alternative decisions as a bet-hedging strategy. Finally, I present a stochastic version of viral gene regulation and discuss speed-accuracy trade-offs in the context of cell fate determination by viruses.

  16. A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J.B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

    2017-01-01

    In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

  17. A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

    2017-07-01

    In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

  18. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John Ernest

    The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...

  19. Decision Support Tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ritsema van Eck, Gerard; Ceross, Aaron

    The decision support tool is part of the toolkit for policy makers which came out of the FP7 RESPECT project, which dealt with privacy and surveillance. It's aim is to support decision makers at all levels of government who face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of surveillance

  20. Measurement Decision Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudner, Lawrence M.

    This paper describes and evaluates the use of decision theory as a tool for classifying examinees based on their item response patterns. Decision theory, developed by A. Wald (1947) and now widely used in engineering, agriculture, and computing, provides a simple model for the analysis of categorical data. Measurement decision theory requires only…

  1. Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Zambia and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    led rural services, designing decision-support tools for managing smallholder assets including livestock, and developing new technologies for natural resource use under variable rainfall. Once identified and evaluated, the adaptation strategies ...

  2. Crafting adaptive capacity: Institutional bricolage in adaptation to urban flooding in Greater Accra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanny Frick-Trzebitzky

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Institutional bricolage, which explains how institutions are actively crafted across different degrees of formality, and urban adaptation have been studied separately in the past. Linking critical institutionalism and adaptive capacity research, this article describes how institutional bricolage shapes the distribution of adaptive capacity in adaptation to urban flooding. The Densu delta in Greater Accra, Ghana, is taken as a case of a rapidly urbanising area in coastal West-Africa. Interviews and stakeholder mappings show that institutional bricolage shapes who is likely to adapt to urban flooding and who isn’t, as well as where people are likely to adapt and where they are not. Interviews moreover provided evidence of the distribution of adaptive capacity in dynamic water governance contexts that are characteristic of urban areas particularly in Africa. The role of the traditional 'chief' is shown to be a dynamic institution that can contribute to or hinder adaptation to urban flooding, depending on his own world views and institutional context. Four new findings emerge. Firstly, key elements of bricolage foster the decisive role of chieftaincy structures in adaptation to urban flooding in the local context of a West-African city. Secondly, institutional bricolage exposes the role of culture in adaptive capacity. Thirdly, applying institutional bricolage in the setting of a rapidly urbanizing flood-prone area offers new perspectives on both institutions and adaptation in urban water and risk governance. Fourthly, a bricolage analysis enables incorporating different forms of knowledge towards transformative adaptation.

  3. Informatics perspectives on decision taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for

  4. Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

    2018-01-01

    The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

  5. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John Ernest

    The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... students a variety of decision making skills as they prepare themselves to work in international companies. This is the task initiated in this book. It discusses how managers combine both rational and non-rational approaches and tools in their decision making processes, especially in international business...

  6. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John Ernest

    The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...... with critical problems on daily basis. As such, they tend to combine experience-based knowledge with intuition and analysis to inform their decisions. Their decision making processes become even more complex when their companies operate within international contexts. It is therefore appropriate to teach...

  7. Computerized operator decision aids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, A.B.

    1984-01-01

    This article explores the potential benefits associated with the use of computers in nuclear plants by the operating crew as an aid in making decisions. Pertinent findings are presented from recently completed projects to establish the context in which operating decisions have to be made. Key factors influencing the decision-making process itself are also identified. Safety parameter display systems, which are being implemented in various forms by the nuclear industry, are described within the context of decision making. In addition, relevant worldwide research and development activities are examined as potential enhancements to computerized operator decision aids to further improve plant safety and availability

  8. Planned Marketing Adaptation and Multinationals' Choices Between Acquisitions and Greenfields

    OpenAIRE

    Slangen, Arjen H. L.; Dikova, Desislava

    2014-01-01

    International marketing studies have extensively examined the antecedents of firms' marketing standardization/ adaptation decisions. However, it is unclear whether such decisions, once planned, codetermine the choice between buying and building foreign subsidiaries. Analyzing a sample of 150 foreign entries by Dutch firms, the authors find that the level of marketing adaptation planned for a wholly owned subsidiary is positively related to the likelihood that the subsidiary will be establi...

  9. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

  10. Make better decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Thomas H

    2009-11-01

    Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups.

  11. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  12. An Adaptive Tutor for Improving Visual Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    and abilities; • changing behavior, practices, decision making, policies (including regulatory policies), or social actions; or • improving... social , economic, civic, or environmental conditions. 5. CHANGES /PROBLEMS: The Project Director/Principal Investigator (PD/PI) is...prospective data collection and subsequent impact trial of adaptive learning. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Electrocardiogram (ECG), ECG standards, medical education

  13. On complex adaptive systems and terrorism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, E.; Elgazzar, A.S.; Hegazi, A.S.

    2005-01-01

    Complex adaptive systems (CAS) are ubiquitous in nature. They are basic in social sciences. An overview of CAS is given with emphasize on the occurrence of bad side effects to seemingly 'wise' decisions. Hence application to terrorism is given. Some conclusions on how to deal with this phenomena are proposed

  14. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services coordinators - are involved in the implementation of the plan. Unfortunately, they are far from ...

  15. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... to facilitate a dialogue between decision-makers and researchers at the national, regional and local level;; to produce spatial information on the factors affecting vulnerability to climate change on the whole island of Madagascar;; to better understand existing and possible adaptation strategies;; to explore ...

  16. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-11-01

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  17. Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2006-01-01

    Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

  18. Decision support for selecting a shortlist of electricity-saving options ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decision support for selecting a shortlist of electricity-saving options: A modied SMAA approach. ... and adapt this for use with quantiles and other \\simplied" formats for representing uncertain attribute evaluations. Key words: Multiple criteria decision analysis, decision support systems, uncertainty modelling, energy sector ...

  19. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-17

    PERSONNEL RECOVERY: USING GAME THEORY TO MODEL STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE CONTEMPORARY OPERATING ENVIRONMENT A thesis...Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...As a flexible and adaptive strategic decision-making tool, game theory offers a logical way to graphically represent and compare all strategy

  20. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  1. The Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    To add to the problem, developing countries have a high need for better water and energy infrastructure. Yet the uncertainty on the exact nature of climate impacts makes it difficult to ensure that correct decisions are made because they require advanced decision-making techniques. The economics of adaptation to climate ...

  2. Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    RITA 525 Brooks Road Rome NY 13441-4505 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) AFRL/RI 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER AFRL-RI-RS-TR-2018-023 12...Chen, Mike Chrzanowski, Adam Coates , Greg Diamos, et al. Deep speech 2: End-to- end speech recognition in english and mandarin. arXiv preprint arXiv...tional models. SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 6(2):938–983, 2013. Yann LeCun, Urs Muller, Jan Ben, Eric Cosatto, and Beat Flepp. Off- road obstacle

  3. IMPROVING ADAPTABILITY OF DECISION TREE FOR MINING BIG DATA

    OpenAIRE

    HANG YANG; SIMON FONG

    2013-01-01

    Big data has become a popular research topic since the data explosion in the past decade. An efficient analytical methodology provides a way of discovering the potential value from big data. Sampling technique is unsuitable any more that the full data will tell the truths. To this end, the data mining algorithm shall be robust to imperfect data, which may lead to tree size explosion and detrimental accuracy problems. In this paper, we propose an incremental optimization mechanism to solve the...

  4. Improving sustainability through intelligent cargo and adaptive decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalmolen, S.; Cornelisse, E.; Stoter, A.; Hofman, W.J.; Bastiaansen, H.J.M.; Punter, L.M.; Knoors, F.

    2012-01-01

    In the current society, logistics is faced with the challenge to meet more stringent sustainability goals. Shippers and transport service providers both aim to reduce the carbon footprint of their logistic operations. To do so, optimal use of logistics resources and physical infrastructure should be

  5. Making decisions with unknown sensory reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deneve, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides a "chicken and egg" problem: to know how quickly we should integrate the sensory input and set the optimal decision threshold, the reliability of the sensory observations must be known in advance. Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome. We consider here a Bayesian decision model that simultaneously infers the probability of two different choices and at the same time estimates the reliability of the sensory information on which this choice is based. We show that this can be achieved within a single trial, based on the noisy responses of sensory spiking neurons. The resulting model is a non-linear diffusion to bound where the weight of the sensory inputs and the decision threshold are both dynamically changing over time. In difficult decision trials, early sensory inputs have a stronger impact on the decision, and the threshold collapses such that choices are made faster but with low accuracy. The reverse is true in easy trials: the sensory weight and the threshold increase over time, leading to slower decisions but at much higher accuracy. In contrast to standard diffusion models, adaptive sensory weights construct an accurate representation for the probability of each choice. This information can then be combined appropriately with other unreliable cues, such as priors. We show that this model can account for recent findings in a motion discrimination task, and can be implemented in a neural architecture using fast Hebbian learning.

  6. Supporting Adaptive and Adaptable Hypermedia Presentation Semantics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C.A. Bulterman (Dick); L. Rutledge (Lloyd); L. Hardman (Lynda); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractHaving the content of a presentation adapt to the needs, resources and prior activities of a user can be an important benefit of electronic documents. While part of this adaptation is related to the encodings of individual data streams, much of the adaptation can/should be guided by the

  7. The Brain Adapts to Dishonesty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett, Neil; Lazzaro, Stephanie C.; Ariely, Dan; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Dishonesty is an integral part of our social world, influencing domains ranging from finance and politics to personal relationships. Anecdotally, digressions from a moral code are often described as a series of small breaches that grow over time. Here, we provide empirical evidence for a gradual escalation of self-serving dishonesty and reveal a neural mechanism supporting it. Behaviorally, we show that the extent to which participants engage in self-serving dishonesty increases with repetition. Using fMRI we show that signal reduction in the amygdala is sensitive to the history of dishonest behavior, consistent with adaptation. Critically, the extent of amygdala BOLD reduction to dishonesty on a present decision relative to the last, predicts the magnitude of escalation of self-serving dishonesty on the next decision. The findings uncover a biological mechanism that supports a “slippery slope”: what begins as small acts of dishonesty can escalate into larger instances. PMID:27775721

  8. Adaptive governance : Towards a stable, accountable and responsive government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.; van der Voort, H.G.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations are expected to adapt within a short time to deal with changes that might become disruptive if not adequately dealt with. Yet many organizations are unable to adapt effectively or quickly due to the established institutional arrangements and patterns of decision-making and

  9. Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2010-01-01

    Climate is constantly changing, prompting natural and managed ecosystems to adjust. As a natural process, adaptation refers to the reactive changes that species and ecosystems make in response to environmental changes. With human intervention, adaptation refers to management actions and decisions that help ecological, social, and economic systems accommodate challenges...

  10. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  11. Group Decision Making with Responses of a Quantitative Nature: The Theory of Social Decision Schemes for Quantities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinsz

    1999-10-01

    Group decisions involving responses of a quantitative nature occur frequently in organizations. Although extensive research has considered group decisions involving discrete responses, only recently have responses involving quantities received comparable attention. It is proposed that the group decision processes related to quantities involve compromise and are characteristically different from the consensus processes that occur for discrete choices. The theory of social decision schemes (Davis, 1973) as originally formulated is intractable for quantitative responses because they involve a large number of response alternatives. This paper extends and adapts the theory of social decision schemes to apply it to group decisions of a quantitative nature. The decision schemes considered in modeling group decisions for quantitative responses also differ from those of discrete responses. The classes of decision schemes considered include central tendency, consensus-based, faction-attraction, coalition, distance-influence, dictator, special cases, and other. Unique approaches for evaluating the adequacy of these decision schemes for quantities are considered. An illustration of the theory of social decision schemes for quantities is presented with data from research on group goal decisions (Hinsz, 1991). Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  12. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  13. Continuous Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-24

    The International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making describing the Triage Method • Chapter 4 contains a paper published in 2014 in The...International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making describing extensions to the Triage Method to consider resource constraints • Chapter 5 contains a...was under review by The International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making 7 • Chapter 6 contains a paper describing methods for eliciting

  14. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  15. A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

    Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

  16. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  17. Testing Decision Rules for Multiattribute Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, C.; Traub, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper investigates the existence of an editing phase and studies the com- pliance of subjects' behaviour with the most popular multiattribute decision rules. We observed that our data comply well with the existence of an editing phase, at least if we allow for a natural error rate of some 25%.

  18. Decision Tree Phytoremediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-12-01

    8 2.4 Irrigation, Agronomic Inputs, and...documents will provide the reader in-depth background on the science and engineering mechanisms of phytoremediation. Using the decision tree and the...ITRC – Phytoremediation Decision Tree December 1999 8 • Contaminant levels • Plant selection • Treatability • Irrigation, agronomic

  19. Games and Platform Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan

    2007-01-01

    is the application of on-line games in order to provide training for decision makers and in order to generate overview over the implications of platform decisions. However, games have to be placed in a context with other methods and we argue that a mixture of games, workshops, and simulations can provide improved...

  20. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  1. Dual Criteria Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    2014-01-01

    The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...

  2. Capital Equipment Replacement Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Batterham, Robert L.; Fraser, K.I.

    1995-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the optimal replacement of capital equipment, especially farm machinery. It also considers the influence of taxation and capital rationing on replacement decisions. It concludes that special taxation provisions such as accelerated depreciation and investment allowances are unlikely to greatly influence farmers' capital equipment replacement decisions in Australia.

  3. Food Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van Floor; Charbonnier, Lisette; Smeets, Paul A.M.

    2016-01-01

    Food decisions determine energy intake. Since overconsumption is the main driver of obesity, the effects of weight status on food decision-making are of increasing interest. An additional factor of interest is age, given the rise in childhood obesity, weight gain with aging, and the increased

  4. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  5. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  6. Decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L.N.; Noe, E.; Langvad, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    The highly complex knowledge of scientific disciplines makes nuanced analysis and modelling possible. However, the information produced often does not reach farmers because it is presented in a way that does not correspond to the way their work is carried out in practice. The decision support...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...... by these three groups to make their decisions varies and therefore different ways of using decision support systems need to be provided. Decision support systems need to be developed in close dialogue and collaboration with user groups....

  7. Adaptation illustrations: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Chris Swanston; Matt St. Pierre; Linda. Parker

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we demonstrate how the Adaptation Workbook (Chapter 3) can be used with the Adaptation Strategies and Approaches (Chapter 2) to develop adaptation tactics for two real-world management issues. The two illustrations in this chapter are intended to provide helpful tips to managers completing the Adaptation Workbook, as well as to show how the anticipated...

  8. Fast autodidactic adaptive equalization algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilal, Katia

    Autodidactic equalization by adaptive filtering is addressed in a mobile radio communication context. A general method, using an adaptive stochastic gradient Bussgang type algorithm, to deduce two low cost computation algorithms is given: one equivalent to the initial algorithm and the other having improved convergence properties thanks to a block criteria minimization. Two start algorithms are reworked: the Godard algorithm and the decision controlled algorithm. Using a normalization procedure, and block normalization, the performances are improved, and their common points are evaluated. These common points are used to propose an algorithm retaining the advantages of the two initial algorithms. This thus inherits the robustness of the Godard algorithm and the precision and phase correction of the decision control algorithm. The work is completed by a study of the stable states of Bussgang type algorithms and of the stability of the Godard algorithms, initial and normalized. The simulation of these algorithms, carried out in a mobile radio communications context, and under severe conditions on the propagation channel, gave a 75% reduction in the number of samples required for the processing in relation with the initial algorithms. The improvement of the residual error was of a much lower return. These performances are close to making possible the use of autodidactic equalization in the mobile radio system.

  9. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.

    2013-01-01

    in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized......We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder...... scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making...

  10. Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

    2013-04-21

    For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5

  11. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  12. Adaptive management for a turbulent future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  13. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2017-09-01

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  14. Decision-Scaling: A Decision Framework for DoD Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Crawley, 2001, Crawley, D., L. Lawrie, F. Winkelmann, W. Buhl, Y. Huang, C. Pedersen, R. Strand, R. Liesen, D. Fisher, M. Witte , and J. Glazer...American Association of Civil Engineers, 77, 1539-1669. Hirsch, 2013, Hirsch, J., DOLE-2.2 Building Energy Use and Cost Analysis Program, James J

  15. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  16. Bayesian Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berliner, M.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

  17. Consumers’ Collision Insurance Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Austin, Laurel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    Using interviews with 74 drivers, we elicit and analyse how people think about collision coverage and, more generally, about insurance decisions. We compare the judgments and behaviours of these decision makers to the predictions of a range of theoretical models: (a) A model developed by Lee (2007...... a cognitive model based on budgeting. Our findings emphasize the importance of budget constraints, which lead consumers to budget their income across consumption categories. We find also that a simple heuristic accounts for many collision coverage decisions: purchase coverage for cars worth more than some...

  18. Radwaste Decision Support System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westrom, G.; Vance, J.N.; Gelhaus, F.E.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the Radwaste Decision Support System (RDSS) is to provide expert advice, analysis results and instructional material relative to the treatment, handling, transport and disposal of low-level radioactive waste produced in nuclear power plants. This functional specification addresses the following topics: Functions of the RDSS, Relationships and interfaces between the function, Development of the decisions and logic tree structures embodied in waste management, Elements of the database and the characteristics required to support the decision-making process, Specific User requirements for the RDSS, Development of the user interface, Basic software architecture, and Concepts for the RDSS usage including updating and maintenance

  19. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  20. Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

  1. Decision taking as a service

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Decision taking can be performed as a service to other parties and it is amenable to outtasking rather than to outsourcing. Outtasking decision taking is compatible with selfsourcing of decision making activities carried out in preparation of decision taking. Decision taking as a service (DTaaS) is

  2. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  3. Decision rules and group rationality: cognitive gain or standstill?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru Lucian Curşeu

    Full Text Available Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group, and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.

  4. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  5. Learning Representation and Control in Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-21

    turns out to be the soft-thresholding operator Sρ(·), which is an entry-wise shrinkage operator: proxh(x)i = Sρ(xi) = max(xi − ρ, 0)−max(−xi − ρ, 0...clarify previously proposed algorithms [7, 53], which amount to particular instances of this general framework. Concretely , basis adaptation can be...D. Bertsekas and H. Yu. Basis function adaptation methods for cost approximation in Markov Decision Processes. In IEEE International Symposium on

  6. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  7. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  8. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  9. Power relations and adaptive capacity : Exploring gender relations in climate change adaptation and coping within small-scale farming in western Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Laszlo Ambjörnsson, Emmeline

    2011-01-01

    Climate adaptation is an important and necessary response to global climate change.Numerous studies show that adaptive capacity is shaped by cultural and social determinants.Gender relations are an integral aspect of social relations in all societies, yet the literature onhow gender influences climate adaptation is limited. Women and men, with different roles,responsibilities and decision-making power have different possibilities to cope and adapt withclimate change, thus adopting a gendered ...

  10. Departmental Appeals Board Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions issued by the Chair and Board Members of the Departmental Appeals Board concerning determinations in discretionary, project grant programs, including...

  11. Medicare Appeals Council Decisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions of the Departmental Appeals Board's Medicare Appeals Council involving claims for entitlement to Medicare and individual claims for Medicare coverage and...

  12. Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne

    2015-01-01

    and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues...... that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation......Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development...

  13. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep

    2015-01-01

    from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  14. Totally optimal decision rules

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha

    2017-11-22

    Optimality of decision rules (patterns) can be measured in many ways. One of these is referred to as length. Length signifies the number of terms in a decision rule and is optimally minimized. Another, coverage represents the width of a rule’s applicability and generality. As such, it is desirable to maximize coverage. A totally optimal decision rule is a decision rule that has the minimum possible length and the maximum possible coverage. This paper presents a method for determining the presence of totally optimal decision rules for “complete” decision tables (representations of total functions in which different variables can have domains of differing values). Depending on the cardinalities of the domains, we can either guarantee for each tuple of values of the function that totally optimal rules exist for each row of the table (as in the case of total Boolean functions where the cardinalities are equal to 2) or, for each row, we can find a tuple of values of the function for which totally optimal rules do not exist for this row.

  15. Decision Taking versus Promise Issuing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2013-01-01

    An alignment is developed between the terminology of outcome oriented decision taking and a terminology for promise issuing. Differences and correspondences are investigated between the concepts of decision and promise. For decision taking, two forms are distinguished: the external outcome

  16. Adaptive Decision Aiding in Computer-Assisted Instruction: Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-09-01

    CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPO.T1"ATE U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral Sep~m~r-i98O and Social Sciences NUBE OF ACE 5001...88 TP50CVR VOL 11 58 TP5DCVR STA 12 88 TP4REPO TP9DCVR TP8DCVR REG 13 88 TP4REPO TP9DCVR TP8DCVR REF 14 186 TP4REPO TP9DCVR TP8DCVR REF TRA -3- LA ...into an adjustable D.C. out- put. Each functional block performs specific operations, which we will now consider. A- 3 0 CZl LA - - The D.C. power source

  17. Decision table languages and systems

    CERN Document Server

    Metzner, John R

    1977-01-01

    ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im

  18. Optimization of sequential decisions by least squares Monte Carlo method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Anders, Annett

    change adaptation measures, and evacuation of people and assets in the face of an emerging natural hazard event. Focusing on the last example, an efficient solution scheme is proposed by Anders and Nishijima (2011). The proposed solution scheme takes basis in the least squares Monte Carlo method, which......The present paper considers the sequential decision optimization problem. This is an important class of decision problems in engineering. Important examples include decision problems on the quality control of manufactured products and engineering components, timing of the implementation of climate....... For the purpose to demonstrate the use and advantages two numerical examples are provided, which is on the quality control of manufactured products....

  19. Translating climate data for business decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, N.

    2015-12-01

    Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.

  20. Adaptive Modular Playware

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik Hautop; Þorsteinsson, Arnar Tumi

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the concept of adaptive modular playware, where the playware adapts to the interaction of the individual user. We hypothesize that there are individual differences in user interaction capabilities and styles, and that adaptive playware may adapt to the individual user...... test set, the results are important as a proof of existence of differences and of the need for adaptation. The fact that there are individual differences makes the results significant for the development of games and interaction. It indicates that it is necessary to adapt the game and interaction......, if we desire to make the most appropriate game and interaction for the individual. Hence, we investigate adaptation as an important issue for playware. With simple playware games, we show that the adaptation will speed the game up and down to find the appropriate level that matches the reaction speed...

  1. Decisions and desire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

  2. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  3. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

    2012-01-01

    Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

  4. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...

  5. Adaptive Leadership in Times of Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    authority to make decisions was more valuable than teams of highly trained risk managers . adaptive leadership , therefore, does not only appoint one...Coast Guard petty officer looks for survivors in wake of Hurricane Katrina DOD (NyxoLyno Cangemi) Nothing throws leadership into starker relief than...handle domestic problems, for example, has been declining for the past decade.1 add the challenge of manag - ing digital media and its rapid information

  6. Adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

    2014-01-01

    Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

  7. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  8. Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Azad, Mohammad

    2014-09-13

    The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

  9. Intuitive numbers guide decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen Peters

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a perceived differences between numbers, b the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.

  10. Multimorbidity and Decision-Making Preferences Among Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Winnie C; Wolff, Jennifer; Greer, Raquel; Dy, Sydney

    2017-11-01

    Understanding individuals' preferences for participating in health care decisions is foundational to delivering person-centered care. We aimed to (1) explore preferences for health care decision making among older adults, and (2) identify multimorbidity profiles associated with preferring less active, ie, passive, participation among older US adults. Ours was a cross-sectional, nationally representative study of 2,017 National Health and Aging Trends Study respondents. Passive decision-making preference was defined as preferring to leave decisions to physicians. Multimorbidity profiles, based on 13 prevalent chronic conditions, were examined as (1) presence of 2 or more conditions, (2) a simple conditions count, and (3) a condition clusters count. Multiple logistic regression was used with adjustment for age, sex, education, English proficiency, and mobility limitation. Most older adults preferred to participate actively in making health care decisions. Older adults with 4 or more conditions, however, and those with multiple condition clusters are relatively less likely to prefer active decision making. Primary care physicians should initiate a shared decision-making process with older adults with 4 or more conditions or multiple condition clusters. Physicians should anticipate variation in decision-making preferences among older adults and adapt a decision-making process that suits individuals' preferences for participation to ensure person-centered care delivery. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

  11. Reconsidering information management roles and capabilities in disaster response decision-making units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment

  12. PENERAPAN SISTIM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN DALAM SISTEM PENGUJIAN COMPUTERIZED ADAPTIVE TESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rukli Rukli

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to make design decision support system adaptive to examinee ability to go to college. Decision support systems are made using one parameter logistic model by taking into account the difficulty level of questions adapted to the ability of the examinee. Questions are selected so that the items follow the ability of examinee more accurate assessment of ability with a lesser number of items. CAT a web-based applications require lesser number of items in determining the ability of examinee. College can determine the appropriate characteristics of the ability of examinee acceptance criteria for each department with domain weighting, and then determine the minimum level of capability that will be received and an appropriate amount to be received.   Key word: Decision Support System, Computerized Adaptive Testing

  13. Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Turkish Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacanli, Feride

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…

  14. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Morell, M.; Todorovik, O.; Dimitrov, D.; Selenica, A.; Spirkovski, Z.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the

  15. Decision-support tool for management of miombo woodlands: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model complexity is well adapted to the data quality and abundance, and it is dependent on proxies of some main drivers of the dynamic processes. The development of the matrix model is a step forward facilitating better decisions in the management of miombo woodlands. However, data ranges used for calibrating ...

  16. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models....... This paper offers an ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision making processes in businesses. The ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ is based on empirical...... evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...

  17. Knowledge representation for decision support systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methlie, L.B.

    1985-01-01

    This book is organized into three sections in accordance with the structure of the conference program. First section contains four major papers which were commissioned by the Programme Committee to set the tone for the conference and to provide a structured source of relevant material from contributing disciplines. The second section contains specific papers submitted to the conference, and concerned with the following topics of specific interest: epistemological issues for decision support systems (DSS), capturing organizational knowledge for DSS, complementarity between human and formal DSS, and representations for adaption. The third section contains the short papers on any topic of relevance to the theme of the conference. It is hoped that the two working conferences organized by WG 8.3 will contribute to the development of a coherent knowledge and understanding of the class of computerized information systems called Decision Support Systems. (Auth.)

  18. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroğlu Başak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

  19. Decision unit program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madjar, N.; Pastor, C.; Chambon, B.; Drain, D.; Giorni, A.; Dauchy, A.

    1981-01-01

    A decision unit has been built to simplify the electronic logic set-up in multi-detectors experiments. This unit, designed with fast memories used as decision making tables, replaces conventional logic modules. Nine inputs are provided for receiving the fast detector signals (charged particles, gammas, neutrons, ...). Fifteen independent outputs allow the identification of the choosen events among the 2 9 possible events. A CAMAC interface between the unit and the computer, or a manual control auxiliary module, is used to load, in the memory, the pattern of the choosen events [fr

  20. Spatial Decision Support Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu Ioan Bejinariu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The satellite image processing is an important tool for decision making in domains like agriculture, forestry, hydrology, for normal activity tracking but also in special situations caused by natural disasters. In this paper it is proposed a method for forestry surface evaluation in terms of occupied surface and also as number of trees. The segmentation method is based on watershed transform which offers good performances in case the objects to detect have connected borders. The method is applied for automatic multi-temporal analysis of forestry areas and represents a useful instrument for decision makers.

  1. Ethical factors influencing decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldhaus, S.

    1993-01-01

    Ethics are determined by weighing risks against benefits, pros against cons, but also by evasion. Whenever decisions are taken, the side effects and risks to be accepted must be weighed. In law, this is called the principle of commensurability implying that ethical compromises are made. Too much emphasis on ethical principles leads to an evasion of realistic action. In consensus discussions it is often seen that the positions adopted by science and technology are incommensurable with those of philosophy, psychology, and theology. Any decision requires that the risk be evaluated in a spirit of responsibility. (orig.) [de

  2. Decision approaches to risk criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.; Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents a definition of acceptable risk and explains how decision analysis could be used to determine ''How safe is safe enough.'' Practical limitations to the potential of decision analysis are then summarized. It discusses acceptable risk as a decision problem, setting acceptable risks using decision analysis, and other aspects of the subject. 10 refs

  3. Thoughts on abatement and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Revelle, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    A number of questions having to do with the themes of abatement and adaptation are discussed. Under the first rubric are questions of future concentrations of radiatively active trace gases, the linkage of these gases with greenhouse warming, and other environmental problems. Also examined in the abatement context are opportunities to reduce fossil fuel use and therefore the emission of greenhouse gases, and the likelihood that natural forest expansion may provide an opportunity to control the rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulation in the atmosphere. Also discussed are the possible effects of greenhouse warming on agriculture in the United States and in the developing world. Finally, some suggestions are given on capturing and retaining interest in greenhouse warming on the part of the decision making public

  4. The Dynamics of Strategic Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia

    Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top management...... with dominant logics anchored in previous business contexts usually receive updated information from performance reports for prior periods. All the while, we discern a human inclination linked to the position of power where managers subconsciously discard updated information from frontline employees. We present...

  5. Algorithms for optimal dyadic decision trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hush, Don [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Porter, Reid [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    A new algorithm for constructing optimal dyadic decision trees was recently introduced, analyzed, and shown to be very effective for low dimensional data sets. This paper enhances and extends this algorithm by: introducing an adaptive grid search for the regularization parameter that guarantees optimal solutions for all relevant trees sizes, revising the core tree-building algorithm so that its run time is substantially smaller for most regularization parameter values on the grid, and incorporating new data structures and data pre-processing steps that provide significant run time enhancement in practice.

  6. Organic farming and multi-criteria decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tove; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Dubgaard, Alex

    of the many different Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques available and their relative advantages and disadvantages. In addition, theoretical and practical problems related to the use of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and MCA respectively are briefly discussed. We then review the MCA literature on case...... studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming....

  7. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  8. Intentions, decisions and rationality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hees, M.; Roy, O.; Boylan, T.A.; Gekker, R.

    2009-01-01

    We argue that intentions with autonomous consequences pose difficulties that force us to go beyond traditional models of decision making. Of course, this does not mean that all intentions require such extensions. Intentions without autonomous consequences can readily be described in terms of

  9. The nuclear power decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, R.

    1980-01-01

    Nuclear power has now become highly controversial and there is violent disagreement about how far this technology can and should contribute to the Western energy economy. More so than any other energy resource, nuclear power has the capacity to provide much of our energy needs but the risk is now seen to be very large indeed. This book discusses the major British decisions in the civil nuclear field, and the way they were made, between 1953 and 1978. That is, it spans the period between the decision to construct Calder Hall - claimed as the world's first nuclear power station - and the Windscale Inquiry - claimed as the world's most thorough study of a nuclear project. For the period up to 1974 this involves a study of the internal processes of British central government - what the author terms 'private' politics to distinguish them from the very 'public' or open politics which have characterised the period since 1974. The private issues include the technical selection of nuclear reactors, the economic arguments about nuclear power and the political clashes between institutions and individuals. The public issues concern nuclear safety and the environment and the rights and opportunities for individuals and groups to protest about nuclear development. The book demonstrates that British civil nuclear power decision making has had many shortcomings and concludes that it was hampered by outdated political and administrative attitudes and machinery and that some of the central issues in the nuclear debate were misunderstood by the decision makers themselves. (author)

  10. The decision evaluation scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stalmeier, PFM; Roosmalen, MS; Verhoef, LCG; Hoekstra-Weebers, JEHM; Oosterwijk, JC; Moog, U; Hoogerbrugge, N; van Daal, WAJ

    There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,

  11. Decision making in neonatologia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  12. Decisions with endogenous frames

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

    2012-01-01

    We develop a model of decision-making with endogenous frames and contrast the normative implications of our model to those of choice theoretic models in which observed choices are determined by exogenous frames or ancillary conditions. We argue that, frames, though they may be taken as given by the

  13. Architectural design decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Antonius Gradus Johannes

    2008-01-01

    A software architecture can be considered as the collection of key decisions concerning the design of the software of a system. Knowledge about this design, i.e. architectural knowledge, is key for understanding a software architecture and thus the software itself. Architectural knowledge is mostly

  14. Making training decisions proactively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, R.F.

    1988-01-01

    The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities

  15. MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HENDRIKS, M. M. W. B.; de Boer, J. H.; Smilde, A. K.; Doornbos, D. A.

    1992-01-01

    Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities

  16. Learning from Failed Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nutt, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    The consequences and dilemmas posed by learning issues for decision making are discussed. Learning requires both awareness of barriers and a coping strategy. The motives to hold back information essential for learning stem from perverse incentives, obscure outcomes, and the hindsight bias. There is little awareness of perverse incentives that…

  17. Equational binary decision diagrams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Groote (Jan Friso); J.C. van de Pol (Jaco)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe incorporate equations in binary decision diagrams (BDD). The resulting objects are called EQ-BDDs. A straightforward notion of ordered EQ-BDDs (EQ-OBDD) is defined, and it is proved that each EQ-BDD is logically equivalent to an EQ-OBDD. Moreover, on EQ-OBDDs satisfiability and

  18. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This article explored the models, roles, tools and methods of consensus decision making. The results were that consensus decision making brings people together and cements the relationship among employees. The lone ranger’s decision is only consented to by staff but inwardly disagreeable resulting in short term benefits but long term collapse of organizations.

  19. Shared clinical decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990

  20. The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

    1986-08-01

    The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

  1. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten G Volz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

  2. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  3. 75 FR 13120 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to Samsung Electronics America... (Case No. RF-011) that grants to Samsung Electronics America, Inc. (Samsung) a waiver from the DOE... humidity sensors and adaptive control anti-sweat heaters. Under today's decision and order, Samsung shall...

  4. So You Want a Pet... A Mini Unit on Making Responsible Decisions About Pet Ownership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Lorraine P.

    1983-01-01

    Presents a mini-unit designed to integrate the topic of pet ownership into the teaching of responsible decision making. Includes a general discussion on the nature of decision making, rationale for the unit, and suggested activities. Although activities are designed for upper elementary grades and older, they can be adapted for younger students.…

  5. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  6. Adaptive protection scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sitharthan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at modelling an electronically coupled distributed energy resource with an adaptive protection scheme. The electronically coupled distributed energy resource is a microgrid framework formed by coupling the renewable energy source electronically. Further, the proposed adaptive protection scheme provides a suitable protection to the microgrid for various fault conditions irrespective of the operating mode of the microgrid: namely, grid connected mode and islanded mode. The outstanding aspect of the developed adaptive protection scheme is that it monitors the microgrid and instantly updates relay fault current according to the variations that occur in the system. The proposed adaptive protection scheme also employs auto reclosures, through which the proposed adaptive protection scheme recovers faster from the fault and thereby increases the consistency of the microgrid. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptive protection is studied through the time domain simulations carried out in the PSCAD⧹EMTDC software environment.

  7. Origins of adaptive immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity.

  8. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A decision-making model based on a spiking neural circuit and synaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hui; Bu, Yijie; Dai, Dawei

    2017-10-01

    To adapt to the environment and survive, most animals can control their behaviors by making decisions. The process of decision-making and responding according to cues in the environment is stable, sustainable, and learnable. Understanding how behaviors are regulated by neural circuits and the encoding and decoding mechanisms from stimuli to responses are important goals in neuroscience. From results observed in Drosophila experiments, the underlying decision-making process is discussed, and a neural circuit that implements a two-choice decision-making model is proposed to explain and reproduce the observations. Compared with previous two-choice decision making models, our model uses synaptic plasticity to explain changes in decision output given the same environment. Moreover, biological meanings of parameters of our decision-making model are discussed. In this paper, we explain at the micro-level (i.e., neurons and synapses) how observable decision-making behavior at the macro-level is acquired and achieved.

  10. Adaptation as organism design

    OpenAIRE

    Gardner, Andy

    2009-01-01

    The problem of adaptation is to explain the apparent design of organisms. Darwin solved this problem with the theory of natural selection. However, population geneticists, whose responsibility it is to formalize evolutionary theory, have long neglected the link between natural selection and organismal design. Here, I review the major historical developments in theory of organismal adaptation, clarifying what adaptation is and what it is not, and I point out future avenues for research.

  11. The purpose of adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Gardner, Andy

    2017-01-01

    A central feature of Darwin’s theory of natural selection is that it explains the purpose of biological adaptation. Here, I: emphasise the scientific importance of understanding what adaptations are for, in terms of facilitating the derivation of empirically-testable predictions; discuss the population genetical basis for Darwin’s theory of the purpose of adaptation, with reference to the “fundamental theorem of natural selection”; and show that a deeper understanding of the purpose of adapta...

  12. Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval: Semantics, Context, and Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissi......This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous...

  13. Adapting to Teach Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkening, B.; Schwartz, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    Adaptation is a key strategy to deal with the effects of climate change, and it can also be a key strategy in teaching climate literacy. Adapting curriculum to include utilizing new instructional practices, modifying existing lessons, evaluating evidence and engaging students in real-world projects are strategies employed in Recharge the Rain. Arizona Project WET and Watershed Management Group developed the Recharge the Rain project, through a NOAA Environmental Literacy Grant, to build community resiliency to hazards associated with increased temperatures, drought and flooding in Arizona. Sixth through twelfth grade teachers, students and the public will move through a continuum from awareness, to knowledge gain, to conceptual understanding, to action. During the first year of the project, through professional development and ongoing guidance, teachers developed a climate literacy curriculum to use in their classrooms. Using systems thinking language and structure from the Cabrera Research Labs, teachers and students gain the thinking tools necessary to increase understanding of Earth's climate system. Lessons and resources for teaching about climate change are abundant and many, such as those on the Climate Literacy Education Awareness Network (CLEAN), have gone through an extensive review process. By cataloguing online resources and sharing these with teachers through a social bookmarking tool, wakelet.com, teachers are easily able to find appropriate teaching material. Engaging students in evaluating evidence requires the data to be relevant to their everyday lives. Online data resources are readily available from NOAA and other sources at both the global and local levels. When teachers, students and the public contribute to the data collection process in citizen science projects such as CoCoRaHS, iSeeChange, and USA National Phenology Network, the data empowers them to act in ways to mitigate the climate threats in their community. Adapting to teach climate

  14. Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Angeler

    Full Text Available The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011 data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

  15. Adaptive Wireless Transceiver Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Wireless technologies are an increasingly attractive means for spatial data, input, manipulation, and distribution. Mobitrum is proposing an innovative Adaptive...

  16. Adaptive optics in microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Martin J

    2007-12-15

    The imaging properties of optical microscopes are often compromised by aberrations that reduce image resolution and contrast. Adaptive optics technology has been employed in various systems to correct these aberrations and restore performance. This has required various departures from the traditional adaptive optics schemes that are used in astronomy. This review discusses the sources of aberrations, their effects and their correction with adaptive optics, particularly in confocal and two-photon microscopes. Different methods of wavefront sensing, indirect aberration measurement and aberration correction devices are discussed. Applications of adaptive optics in the related areas of optical data storage, optical tweezers and micro/nanofabrication are also reviewed.

  17. Quantifying the adaptive cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

    2015-01-01

    The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

  18. Consumer Decision-Making Styles and Local Brand Biasness: Exploration in the Czech Republic

    OpenAIRE

    Wanninayake W.M.C.Bandara

    2014-01-01

    The modern marketer shows a growing interest in the research of consumer decision-making styles to understand how an individual makes his/her buying decisions in the competitive environment. This concept is important because it determines the behavioral patterns of consumers and is relevant for market segmentation. Most of the previous researchers have adapted to Consumer Style Inventory (CSI) introduced by Sproles and Kendall in 1986 as a common tool for assessing the decision-making styles ...

  19. Comparison of Test Administration Procedures for Placement Decisions in a Mathematics Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straetmans, Gerard J. J. M.; Eggen, Theo J. H. M.

    1998-01-01

    Three test administration procedures for making placement decisions in adult education were compared (paper-based, computer-based, and computerized-adaptive tests) with 90 adult-education students. Test performance was not differentially affected by the mode of administration, but the computerized adaptive test always yielded more precise ability…

  20. Communicating climate information: travelling through the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoverinck, F.; Dubois, G.; Amelung, B.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This paper explores the nature and consequences of a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts, and b)changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analysing the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e. climate models and data), climate- change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesised in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample information on uncertainty is under-represented: e.g. studies focus on only one scenario, and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. A better training of climatologists to communication issues, but also a training to climatology for decision makers are required, as well as more cautious and robust adaptation strategies, accounting for the uncertainty inherent to climate projections. (authors)

  1. Decision Strategy Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is: (1) to study the decision-making process in a nuclear context with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness; (2) to disseminate knowledge on nuclear emergency preparedness including courses in the field of off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents; (3) to co-ordinate efforts within SCK-CEN in the field of medical applications of radiation; (4) to support projects and reflexion groups related to interdisciplinary research on the no-technical aspects of radiation protection or nuclear apllications; (5) to give advice and support to authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available. Main focus of the programme is on the surveillance of the territory and emergency preparedness. Principal achievements in 2000 are described

  2. Compressing Binary Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Esben Rune; Satti, Srinivasa Rao; Tiedemann, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to ......-2 bits per node. Empirical results for our compression technique are presented, including comparisons with previously introduced techniques, showing that the new technique dominate on all tested instances......The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...

  3. Compressing Binary Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rune Hansen, Esben; Srinivasa Rao, S.; Tiedemann, Peter

    The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to ......-2 bits per node. Empirical results for our compression technique are presented, including comparisons with previously introduced techniques, showing that the new technique dominate on all tested instances.......The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...

  4. Actions and Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monthoux, Pierre Guillet de

    2017-01-01

    How management philosophy is conceived depends on if pragmatism is acknowledged or not! After having been under the main domination of management science both research and education has until recently widened its scope from a decision-making to an action-perspective. It seems to be a recent...... but contain more than that. A decision-perspective explains by causal inference modelling choices as calculated or programmed. The action-perspectives strive at understanding intentions of agents by philosophical interpretations of action stories. It is less limited to finding the logics for constructing...... worlds, to paraphrase Herbert Simon’s favorite philosopher Rudolf Carnap, than embarking on plausible, although not certain, reconstructions of intentions giving meaning to action stories. This can be illustrated by turning to Elizabeth Anscombe’s Wittgensteinian investigation of intentions...

  5. Decision Strategy Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardeman, F

    2001-04-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is: (1) to study the decision-making process in a nuclear context with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness; (2) to disseminate knowledge on nuclear emergency preparedness including courses in the field of off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents; (3) to co-ordinate efforts within SCK-CEN in the field of medical applications of radiation; (4) to support projects and reflexion groups related to interdisciplinary research on the no-technical aspects of radiation protection or nuclear apllications; (5) to give advice and support to authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available. Main focus of the programme is on the surveillance of the territory and emergency preparedness. Principal achievements in 2000 are described.

  6. The Cesarean Decision Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puia, Denise M.

    2013-01-01

    A descriptive study design was used to describe the decision of women having a cesarean surgery. The Cesarean Birth Decision Survey was used to collect data from 101 postpartum women who underwent a cesarean. Most of the surgeries were to primipara women who reported doctor recommendation and increased safety for the baby as the main reasons for the cesarean. Those women who had repeat cesarean surgery all cited their previous cesarean as the main reason for the current surgery. Women’s knowledge of cesarean surgery needs to be assessed early in pregnancy so that appropriate education may be provided. Accurate and ongoing information may decrease the number of women choosing a cesarean surgery. PMID:24868134

  7. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  8. Automatic food decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone

    Consumers' food decisions are to a large extent shaped by automatic processes, which are either internally directed through learned habits and routines or externally influenced by context factors and visual information triggers. Innovative research methods such as eye tracking, choice experiments...... and food diaries allow us to better understand the impact of unconscious processes on consumers' food choices. Simone Mueller Loose will provide an overview of recent research insights into the effects of habit and context on consumers' food choices....

  9. Big Decisions, Big Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Bruzelius, Nils; Rothengatter, Werner

    2002-01-01

    the borderlines of private and public involvement, four specific measures to increase accountability are suggested and detailed: (1) Transparency, (2) Performance specifications, (3) Explication of regulatory regimes, and (4) Involvement of risk capital. The decision on whether or not to build a multi......-billion dollar fixed link across the Baltic Sea connecting Scandinavia and Germany is used as an illustrative case. However, the approach developed is likely to be relevant for other major projects in other countries as well....

  10. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... depends to a high degree on subjective preferences stated by the decision-makers as the methodology deals with impacts (or criteria) that are difficult to quantify or assign with a monetary value. As a result of this an examination process is proposed that can guide the decision-makers through...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  11. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

    2013-05-21

    We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

  12. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  13. Decision Architect - A Decision Documentation Tool for Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manteuffel, Christian; Tofan, Dan; Avgeriou, Paraskevas; Koziolek, Heiko; Goldschmidt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Architecture decisions are often not explicitly documented in practice, even though explicit capturing and documentation of architecture decisions has been associated with a multitude of benefits. Several decision documentation tools have been proposed but they often do not meet the expectations and

  14. Cal-Adapt: California's Climate Data Resource and Interactive Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, N.; Mukhtyar, S.; Wilhelm, S.; Galey, B.; Lehmer, E.

    2016-12-01

    Cal-Adapt is a web-based application that provides an interactive toolkit and information clearinghouse to help agencies, communities, local planners, resource managers, and the public understand climate change risks and impacts at the local level. The website offers interactive, visually compelling, and useful data visualization tools that show how climate change might affect California using downscaled continental climate data. Cal-Adapt is supporting California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment through providing access to the wealth of modeled and observed data and adaption-related information produced by California's scientific community. The site has been developed by UC Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF) in collaboration with the California Energy Commission's (CEC) Research Program. The Cal-Adapt website allows decision makers, scientists and residents of California to turn research results and climate projections into effective adaptation decisions and policies. Since its release to the public in June 2011, Cal-Adapt has been visited by more than 94,000 unique visitors from over 180 countries, all 50 U.S. states, and 689 California localities. We will present several key visualizations that have been employed by Cal-Adapt's users to support their efforts to understand local impacts of climate change, indicate the breadth of data available, and delineate specific use cases. Recently, CEC and GIF have been developing and releasing Cal-Adapt 2.0, which includes updates and enhancements that are increasing its ease of use, information value, visualization tools, and data accessibility. We showcase how Cal-Adapt is evolving in response to feedback from a variety of sources to present finer-resolution downscaled data, and offer an open API that allows other organization to access Cal-Adapt climate data and build domain specific visualization and planning tools. Through a combination of locally relevant information, visualization tools, and access to

  15. An uncertainty assessment framework for forest planning adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L.G.J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty in forest planning is a prevailing problem affecting decision-making processes, especially those relating to climate change adaptation. Limited knowledge about uncertainty has prompted this empirical investigation of forest planners' understanding of uncertainty related to its

  16. Adaptive Wavelet Transforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szu, H.; Hsu, C. [Univ. of Southwestern Louisiana, Lafayette, LA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Human sensors systems (HSS) may be approximately described as an adaptive or self-learning version of the Wavelet Transforms (WT) that are capable to learn from several input-output associative pairs of suitable transform mother wavelets. Such an Adaptive WT (AWT) is a redundant combination of mother wavelets to either represent or classify inputs.

  17. Management for adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Innes; Linda A. Joyce; Seppo Kellomaki; Bastiaan Louman; Aynslie Ogden; Ian Thompson; Matthew Ayres; Chin Ong; Heru Santoso; Brent Sohngen; Anita Wreford

    2009-01-01

    This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major...

  18. Detachable caster adapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, R. J.

    1969-01-01

    Detachable caster adapter moves heavy welding tables when fork lift trucks are not practical. A support saddle on the adapter, connected to the caster platform by means of a hinge, fits the leg of the welding table, but can be modified to fit other leg configurations.

  19. Human pathogen avoidance adaptations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tybur, J.M.; Lieberman, D.

    2016-01-01

    Over the past few decades, researchers have become increasingly interested in the adaptations guiding the avoidance of disease-causing organisms. Here we discuss the latest developments in this area, including a recently developed information-processing model of the adaptations underlying pathogen

  20. Adaptation investments and homeownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Skak, Morten

    2008-01-01

    the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously decide housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation...

  1. Adaptation investments and homeownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Skak, Morten

    2008-01-01

    by adapting the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously choose housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual...

  2. Introduction: Adapting Idols

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joost Bruin; dr. Koos Zwaan

    2012-01-01

    Introduction book Adapting Idols Since the first series of Pop Idol aired in the UK just over a decade ago, Idols television shows have been broadcast in more than forty countries all over the world. In all those countries the global Idols format has been adapted to local cultures and production

  3. Understanding marketing decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractWhile a whole range of factors influences the outcomes of a marketing policy, it is managerial decision-making that can really make a difference. A clearer understanding of how marketers make decisions should therefore improve their quality.

  4. Adaptive noise cancellation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akram, N.

    1999-01-01

    In this report we describe the concept of adaptive noise canceling, an alternative method of estimating signals corrupted by additive noise of interference. The method uses 'primary' input containing the corrupted signal and a 'reference' input containing noise correlated in some unknown way with the primary noise, the reference input is adaptively filtered and subtracted from the primary input to obtain the signal estimate. Adaptive filtering before subtraction allows the treatment of inputs that are deterministic or stochastic, stationary or time variable. When the reference input is free of signal and certain other conditions are met then noise in the primary input can be essentially eliminated without signal distortion. It is further shown that the adaptive filter also acts as notch filter. Simulated results illustrate the usefulness of the adaptive noise canceling technique. (author)

  5. Turbine system and adapter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hogberg, Nicholas Alvin; Garcia-Crespo, Andres Jose

    2017-05-30

    A turbine system and adapter are disclosed. The adapter includes a turbine attachment portion having a first geometry arranged to receive a corresponding geometry of a wheelpost of a turbine rotor, and a bucket attachment portion having a second geometry arranged to receive a corresponding geometry of a root portion of a non-metallic turbine bucket. Another adapter includes a turbine attachment portion arranged to receive a plurality of wheelposts of a turbine rotor, and a bucket attachment portion arranged to receive a plurality of non-metallic turbine buckets having single dovetail configuration root portions. The turbine system includes a turbine rotor wheel configured to receive metal buckets, at least one adapter secured to at least one wheelpost on the turbine rotor wheel, and at least one non-metallic bucket secured to the at least one adapter.

  6. Appraising Adaptive Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai N. Lee

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive management is appraised as a policy implementation approach by examining its conceptual, technical, equity, and practical strengths and limitations. Three conclusions are drawn: (1 Adaptive management has been more influential, so far, as an idea than as a practical means of gaining insight into the behavior of ecosystems utilized and inhabited by humans. (2 Adaptive management should be used only after disputing parties have agreed to an agenda of questions to be answered using the adaptive approach; this is not how the approach has been used. (3 Efficient, effective social learning, of the kind facilitated by adaptive management, is likely to be of strategic importance in governing ecosystems as humanity searches for a sustainable economy.

  7. Adaptive Processes in Hearing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santurette, Sébastien; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob; Tranebjærg, Lisbeth

    2018-01-01

    induced by hearing impairment and the compensation provided by hearing devices. These devices themselves are now able to adapt to the listener’s individual environment, attentional state, and behavior. These topics related to auditory adaptation, in the broad sense of the term, were central to the 6th......Our auditory environment is constantly changing and evolving over time, requiring us to rapidly adapt to a complex dynamic sensory input. This adaptive ability of our auditory system can be observed at different levels, from individual cell responses to complex neural mechanisms and behavior...... International Symposium on Auditory and Audiological Research held in Nyborg, Denmark, in August 2017. The symposium addressed adaptive processes in hearing from different angles, together with a wide variety of other auditory and audiological topics. The papers in this special issue result from some...

  8. Adaptive signal processor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walz, H.V.

    1980-07-01

    An experimental, general purpose adaptive signal processor system has been developed, utilizing a quantized (clipped) version of the Widrow-Hoff least-mean-square adaptive algorithm developed by Moschner. The system accommodates 64 adaptive weight channels with 8-bit resolution for each weight. Internal weight update arithmetic is performed with 16-bit resolution, and the system error signal is measured with 12-bit resolution. An adapt cycle of adjusting all 64 weight channels is accomplished in 8 ..mu..sec. Hardware of the signal processor utilizes primarily Schottky-TTL type integrated circuits. A prototype system with 24 weight channels has been constructed and tested. This report presents details of the system design and describes basic experiments performed with the prototype signal processor. Finally some system configurations and applications for this adaptive signal processor are discussed.

  9. Adaptive signal processor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walz, H.V.

    1980-07-01

    An experimental, general purpose adaptive signal processor system has been developed, utilizing a quantized (clipped) version of the Widrow-Hoff least-mean-square adaptive algorithm developed by Moschner. The system accommodates 64 adaptive weight channels with 8-bit resolution for each weight. Internal weight update arithmetic is performed with 16-bit resolution, and the system error signal is measured with 12-bit resolution. An adapt cycle of adjusting all 64 weight channels is accomplished in 8 μsec. Hardware of the signal processor utilizes primarily Schottky-TTL type integrated circuits. A prototype system with 24 weight channels has been constructed and tested. This report presents details of the system design and describes basic experiments performed with the prototype signal processor. Finally some system configurations and applications for this adaptive signal processor are discussed

  10. Transition and adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrade, Stefan Bastholm

    2015-01-01

    This article analyses how Danish farm families adapted to harsh and changing conditions in the period after the great western agricultural crisis in the early 1980s. Drawing on Bourdieu's concepts of habitus and adaptation, I analyse the creation and consolidation of different class fractions...... their agricultural production annually from 1980–2008. The result is a five-farmer typology that, together with logit regression models including background covariates, reveals how the farm families' adaptation strategies relate to educational level, financial situation, family composition and whether the farmer can...... amongst farm families due to different adaptation strategies. The data contain information about the population of self-employed farmers and their families who were between 30–35 years old in 1980 (n = 9,123). Using sequence analysis, I examine farm families' adaptation strategies for maintaining...

  11. Modeling of processes of an adaptive business management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karev Dmitry Vladimirovich

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the analysis of systems of adaptive management board business proposed the original version of the real system of adaptive management, the basis of which used dynamic recursive model cash flow forecast and real data. Proposed definitions and the simulation of scales and intervals of model time in the control system, as well as the thresholds observations and conditions of changing (correction of the administrative decisions. The process of adaptive management is illustrated on the basis proposed by the author of the script of development of business.

  12. Climate services within a regional climate adaptation project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Heidenreich, Majana; Franke, Johannes; Riedel, Kathrin; Matschullat, Jörg; Bernhofer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the demand for adapting to climate variability and change became more and more obvious. Thus a multitude of projects dealing with climate adaptation strategies and concrete measures was launched. Commonly, developing adaptation options is based on downscaled climate model outputs. These outputs have to be provided within the projects, but just providing the data is far from being sufficient. Obstacles connected with using climate projections for climate adaptation include uncertainties and bandwidths of climate projections and the inability of models to describe parameters such as extreme weather events, which are particularly relevant for many climate adaptation decisions. Climate scientists know that model outputs are no climate data and cannot be treated as observational data were treated in the past. Still, many practitioners demand precise values for future climate to replace past CLINO-values and to run their applications. Thus, climate adaptation involves adapting the instruments and processes used in deriving climate-related decisions. Communicating the challenges arising from this need in rethinking common procedures is of outstanding significance for any successful adaptation practice. Dealing with uncertainties of climate projections is a constant necessity, since they are always based on several simplifications, parameterisations and assumptions, e.g., on the future socioeconomic development or on climate sensitivity. Future climate should thus be communicated in bandwidths. Working with just one scenario, one climate model, or even working with ensemble means is risky as it evokes a higher than appropriate perceived confidence in the results. It encourages using familiar tools in processing climate information, rather than caution. Consequences are suboptimal adaption and misallocation of finances. We encourage working with bandwidths and testing climate adaptation options against a broad range of possible future climates. Climate

  13. Financial decisions in the household

    OpenAIRE

    Kamleitner, Bernadette; Mengay, Till; Kirchler, Erich

    2017-01-01

    Financial decisions are a frequent occurrence within households. Depending on characteristics of the relationship between household members, the situation, and the concrete decision object, decisions can either be made jointly by multiple members of the household or individually by one member. This chapter outlines the four types of financial decisions (spending, saving and credit use, investment, money management) and identifies key parameters that are specific to and guide each o...

  14. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  15. 75 FR 57859 - Specially Adapted Housing and Special Home Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-23

    ... Home Adaptation AGENCY: Department of Veterans Affairs. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Department of... specially adapted housing and special home adaptation grants. This final rule incorporates certain... regulations pertaining to eligibility for specially adapted housing (SAH) grants and special home adaptation...

  16. Modelling adaptation strategies for Swedish forestry under climate and global change

    OpenAIRE

    Blanco González, Víctor

    2017-01-01

    Adaptation is necessary to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. These decisions are subject to experienced and expected impacts, and depend upon the temporal interactions of a range of individual and institutional acto...

  17. The challenges of shared decision making in dementia care networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Coppoolse, Krista; de Lange, Jacomine; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra

    2016-09-09

    Decision making is an important part of managing one's life with dementia. Shared decision making is the preferred way of involving people in decisions. Our study aimed to describe the challenges of shared decision making in dementia care networks. A multi-perspective qualitative study using face-to-face interviews with 113 respondents in 23 care networks in the Netherlands consisting of 23 people with dementia, 44 of their informal caregivers, and 46 of their professional caregivers. The interview guide addressed the decision topics, who were involved in the decision making and their contributions to the decision making. We used content analysis to delineate categories and themes. The themes and categories that emerged are: (1) adapting to a situation of diminishing independence, which includes the continuous changes in the care network, resulting in shifting decision-making roles and the need for anticipating future decisions; and (2) tensions in network interactions which result from different perspectives and interests and which require reaching agreement about what constitutes a problem by exchanging information in the care network. The challenges in dementia care networks relate to all dimensions of social health. They have implications for a model of shared decision making in dementia care networks. Such a model requires flexibility regarding changing capabilities to preserve the autonomy of the person with dementia. It needs working towards a shared view about what constitutes a problem in the situation. It asks for professionals to advocate for the involvement of people with dementia by helping them participate in ways that strengthen their remaining capacities.

  18. Decision making in matters of pollution in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galle, Marion

    1989-01-01

    Decision making in matters of pollution, although taking place in a hierarchically determined institutional setting, can be interpreted as the result of a conflictual process between the different groups involved. 1. The statutory setting: coherence of laws and adaptability of norms; a hierarchical, pyramidal, formal structure; relative autonomy and flexibility of local decision making: possibility of developing local organizations for the control of pollution. 2. The conflictual process: Within the institutional setting, decision making is the result of interaction between: the state and the authorities, who make the rules and possess the formal power; industry, which has the economic power and is the arbiter of technical feasibility; the public, who are guardians of social values and judges of the acceptability of final decisions; the experts, who possess the scientific knowledge on which decisions are based. The relative weights of these different interests in decision making are linked with the existence of today's society of communication which increases the importance of communicators and especially the media. Conclusion: decision making in questions of environmental risk and pollution necessarily consists in taking into account all the interests involved in order to arrive at a solution acceptable to the public. The interests of society are not necessarily compatible with technical or scientific logic. (author)

  19. Neuroanatomy of financial decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermejo, P E; Dorado, R; Zea-Sevilla, M A; Sánchez Menéndez, V

    2011-04-01

    Neuroeconomics is a new science that studies the brain processes involved in taking decisions, particularly related to economy and it has experienced an important advance in the recent years due to the development of the new neuroimaging techniques, basically functional magnetic resonance imaging. The aim of this paper it to carry out a review of the literature on the different neurological mechanisms involved in taking financial decisions, the concerned brain structures and the diseases that can affect them. We made a non systematic review of the literature in primary (PubMed) and secondary (Tripdatabase and Cochrane Library) bibliographic databases. We also used bibliography given by the Asociación Española de Neuroeconomía. Brain reward and loss aversion systems suppose a balance that makes us take one or another decision. Dopamine plays an important role on it and several brain structures have been involved in this balance such as the amygdale, the insula, the medial prefrontal cortex, the anterior and posterior cingulated cortex, the accumbens nucleus and the ventral tegmental area. The alteration of this balance may produce inappropriate financial behaviors what may occur in common diseases including depression, mania, alcoholism, gambling and several impulse control disorders. Neurologists should define our role in this interdisciplinary field due to the privileged position of our specialty to study how the brain works and due to the potential growing of this science in the near future. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  20. Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

  1. Trigger and decision processors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franke, G.

    1980-11-01

    In recent years there have been many attempts in high energy physics to make trigger and decision processes faster and more sophisticated. This became necessary due to a permanent increase of the number of sensitive detector elements in wire chambers and calorimeters, and in fact it was possible because of the fast developments in integrated circuits technique. In this paper the present situation will be reviewed. The discussion will be mainly focussed upon event filtering by pure software methods and - rather hardware related - microprogrammable processors as well as random access memory triggers. (orig.)

  2. Decision-making Procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aldashev, Gani; Kirchsteiger, Georg; Sebald, Alexander Christopher

    2009-01-01

    It is a persistent finding in psychology and experimental economics that people's behavior is not only shaped by outcomes but also by decision-making procedures. In this paper we develop a general framework capable of modelling these procedural concerns. Within the context of psychological games we...... define procedures as mechanisms that influence the probabilities of reaching different endnodes. We show that for such procedural games a sequential psychological equilibrium always exists. Applying this approach within a principal-agent context we show that the way less attractive jobs are allocated...

  3. External PCR, ASN's decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2012-01-01

    The French law imposes in some situations the presence of a person skilled in radiation protection (PCR). This article describes the cases when this person must belong to the staff of the enterprise or when this person may be sub-contracted. For instance in most nuclear facilities the PCR must be on the payroll, for enterprises dedicated to nuclear transport the PCR's job can be sub-contracted. A decision given by the ASN (French Nuclear Safety Authority) sets the minimal requests (in terms of training, job contract, activities) of the sub-contracted PCR. (A.C.)

  4. Improving farmer adaptive capacity by integrating local and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-22

    Improving farmer adaptive capacity by integrating local and indigenous knowledge in climate forecasting. April 22, 2016. Image. Despite the availability of more reliable forecasts from meteorological services in Kenya, farmers seldom use them for farm level decision-making. This case study discusses how downscaled ...

  5. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

  6. Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons From Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Capela Lourenco, T.; Rovisco, A.; Groot, A.M.E.; Nilsson, C.; Füssel, H.M.; Bree, van L.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring

  7. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN RURAL SOUTH AFRICA Sam Schramski

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    sam schramski

    2017-02-02

    Feb 2, 2017 ... global environmental change research because of their ability to represent high degrees of complexity. Despite all ..... who points to decision-making on the perceived changes in the prioritization of labor and activities spent in ..... and C. Twyman. ―Equity and Justice in Climate Change Adaptation amongst.

  8. Determinants of climate change adaptation among male and female ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adaptation is considered an appropriate response to climate change and variability, especially for the smallholder farmers. However, the response decisions and actions of male and female farmers may be influenced by various factor and factor combinations that are not adequately understood. We hypothesized that both ...

  9. The role of conservation programs in drought risk adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Wallander; Marcel Aillery; Daniel Hellerstein; Michael Hand

    2013-01-01

    This report evaluates the extent to which farms facing higher levels of drought risk are more likely to participate in conservation programs, and fi nds a strong link between drought risk and program participation. Prior research has shown that climate-related risk exposure infl uences production decisions such as crop choice; our research shows that adaptation also...

  10. Key concepts and methods in social vulnerability and adaptive capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams

    2015-01-01

    National forests have been asked to assess how climate change will impact nearby human communities. To assist their thinking on this topic, we examine the concepts of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity with an emphasis on a range of theoretical and methodological approaches. This analysis is designed to help researchers and decision-makers select appropriate...

  11. How Peircean semiotic philosophy connects Western science with Eastern emptiness ontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brier, Søren

    2017-12-01

    In recent articles in this journal I have discussed why a traditional physicalist and mechanist, as well as an info-computationalist, view of science cannot fulfil the goal of building a transdisciplinary science across Snow's two cultures. There seems to be no path proceeding from mechanistic physicalism to views that encompass phenomenological theories of experiential consciousness and meaning-based cognition and communication. I have suggested, as an alternative, the Cybersemiotic framework's integration of Peirce's semiotics and Luhmann's autopoietic system theory. The present article considers in greater depth the ontological developments necessary to make this possible. It shows how Peirce avoids materialism and German idealism through his building on a concept of emptiness similar to modern quantum field theory, positing an indeterminist objective chance feeding into an evolutionary philosophy of knowing based on pure mathematics and phenomenology that is itself combined with empirically executed fallibilism. Furthermore, he created a new metaphysics in the form of a philosophical synechist triadic process philosophy. This was integrated into the transcendentalist view of process view of science and spirituality developed from Western Unitarianism by Emerson (agapism), and featuring a metaphysics of emptiness and spontaneity (tychism) that are also essential for the Eastern philosophies of Buddhism and Vedanta. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Cosmos and Creativity - Man in an evolving Universe as a creative, aesthetical Agent - some Peircean Remarks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent; Thellefsen, Torkild Leo; Brier, Søren

    2011-01-01

    a cybersemiotics. In this paper, we focus on the understanding of the evolution of the universe that Peirce produced as an alternative to the mechanistic view underlying classical physics and try to place man in an evolving universe as a creative, aesthetical agent. It is true that modern non-equilibrium physics....... To this end, Peirce's thoughts on agapastic evolution coupled with the aesthetical influence of the growth of ideas and reasonableness on man could make a contribution....

  13. How Peircean Semiotic Philosophy Connects Western Science with Eastern Emptiness Ontology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brier, Søren

    2017-01-01

    In recent articles in this journal I have discussed why a traditional physicalist and mechanist, as well as an info-computationalist, view of science cannot fulfil the goal of building a transdisciplinary science across Snow's two cultures. There seems to be no path proceeding from mechanistic...... of knowing based on pure mathematics and phenomenology that is itself combined with empirically executed fallibilism. Furthermore, he created a new metaphysics in the form of a philosophical synechist triadic process philosophy. This was integrated into the transcendentalist view of process view of science...

  14. Things as companions : a Peircean approach to urban place / Susann Vihma

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vihma, Susann

    2003-01-01

    Inimtegevuse, keskkonna ja asjade analüüs Peirceþilikus võtmes. Püütakse eritleda tootekekkonna ja disainiprotsessiga seotud inimkogemust. Artefakti käsitletakse kui vastastikuses koostöös toimivat asja, mitte pelgalt passiivset objekti

  15. An overview of decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has been written to provide a non-technical overview of modern decision theory and to identify some of the major ways in which decision theory is relevant to the nuclear waste issue. It concludes that the use of decision theory in the nuclear waste issue should be further developed, and more sophisticated tools should be made used of. In particular, the application of models for uncertainty and for collective decision-making is warranted, and the same applies to models that include the earlier phases of the decision-making process. (92 refs.)

  16. [Adaptive optics for ophthalmology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, M

    2016-04-01

    Adaptive optics is a technology enhancing the visual performance of an optical system by correcting its optical aberrations. Adaptive optics have already enabled several breakthroughs in the field of visual sciences, such as improvement of visual acuity in normal and diseased eyes beyond physiologic limits, and the correction of presbyopia. Adaptive optics technology also provides high-resolution, in vivo imaging of the retina that may eventually help to detect the onset of retinal conditions at an early stage and provide better assessment of treatment efficacy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Symmetry Adapted Basis Sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avery, John Scales; Rettrup, Sten; Avery, James Emil

    In theoretical physics, theoretical chemistry and engineering, one often wishes to solve partial differential equations subject to a set of boundary conditions. This gives rise to eigenvalue problems of which some solutions may be very difficult to find. For example, the problem of finding...... in such problems can be much reduced by making use of symmetry-adapted basis functions. The conventional method for generating symmetry-adapted basis sets is through the application of group theory, but this can be difficult. This book describes an easier method for generating symmetry-adapted basis sets...

  18. Introduction to adaptive arrays

    CERN Document Server

    Monzingo, Bob; Haupt, Randy

    2011-01-01

    This second edition is an extensive modernization of the bestselling introduction to the subject of adaptive array sensor systems. With the number of applications of adaptive array sensor systems growing each year, this look at the principles and fundamental techniques that are critical to these systems is more important than ever before. Introduction to Adaptive Arrays, 2nd Edition is organized as a tutorial, taking the reader by the hand and leading them through the maze of jargon that often surrounds this highly technical subject. It is easy to read and easy to follow as fundamental concept

  19. Adapt or Die

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brody, Joshua Eric; Larsen, Kasper Green

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we study the role non-adaptivity plays in maintaining dynamic data structures. Roughly speaking, a data structure is non-adaptive if the memory locations it reads and/or writes when processing a query or update depend only on the query or update and not on the contents of previously...... read cells. We study such non-adaptive data structures in the cell probe model. This model is one of the least restrictive lower bound models and in particular, cell probe lower bounds apply to data structures developed in the popular word-RAM model. Unfortunately, this generality comes at a high cost...

  20. Fuzzy controller adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myravyova, E. A.; Sharipov, M. I.; Radakina, D. S.

    2017-10-01

    During writing this work, the fuzzy controller with a double base of rules was studied, which was applied for the synthesis of the automated control system. A method for fuzzy controller adaptation has been developed. The adaptation allows the fuzzy controller to automatically compensate for parametric interferences that occur at the control object. Specifically, the fuzzy controller controlled the outlet steam temperature in the boiler unit BKZ-75-39 GMA. The software code was written in the programming support environment Unity Pro XL designed for fuzzy controller adaptation.

  1. Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

  2. Evaluating trade-offs in bull trout reintroduction strategies using structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brignon, William R.; Peterson, James T.; Dunham, Jason B.; Schaller, Howard A.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2018-01-01

    Structured decision making allows reintroduction decisions to be made despite uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. We developed a decision model to evaluate the trade-offs between six bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) reintroduction decisions with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable level. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the decision identity and outcome were most influenced by survival parameters that result in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations, adult fecundity rates, and sex ratio. The decision was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive-reared population, the effect of naivety on released individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. The model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions.

  3. Implicit knowledge of visual uncertainty guides decisions with asymmetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2008-01-01

    under conditions of uncertainty. Here we show that human observers performing a simple visual choice task under an externally imposed loss function approach the optimal strategy, as defined by Bayesian probability and decision theory (Berger, 1985; Cox, 1961). In concert with earlier work, this suggests...... than simply requiring that they use a modal estimate of the uncertain stimulus. Crucially, they approach optimal behavior even when denied the opportunity to learn adaptive decision strategies based on immediate feedback. Our data thus support the idea that flexible representations of uncertainty...

  4. Transformer: an adaptation framework supporting contextual adaptation behavior composition

    OpenAIRE

    Gui, Ning; De Florio, Vincenzo; Holvoet, Tom

    2013-01-01

    As software systems today increasingly operate in changing and complex environments, they are expected to dynamically adapt to the changing environments sometimes with multiple co-existing adaptation goals. This paper proposes an adaptation framework to facilitate adaptation with multiple concerns by using reusable and composable adaptation modules. Rather than using one-size-fits-all approach, in this framework, system global adaptation behavior is generated by contextually fusin...

  5. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  6. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  7. Simulated climate adaptation in storm-water systems: Evaluating the efficiency of within-system flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam D. McCurdy

    Full Text Available Changes in regional temperature and precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change may adversely affect the performance of long-lived infrastructure. Adaptation may be necessary to ensure that infrastructure offers consistent service and remains cost effective. But long service times and deep uncertainty associated with future climate projections make adaptation decisions especially challenging for managers. Incorporating flexibility into systems can increase their effectiveness across different climate futures but can also add significant costs. In this paper we review existing work on flexibility in climate change adaptation of infrastructure, such as robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive pathways, apply a basic typology of flexibility, and test alternative strategies for flexibility in distributed infrastructure systems comprised of multiple emplacements of a common, long-lived element: roadway culverts. Rather than treating a system of dispersed infrastructure elements as monolithic, we simulate “options flexibility” in which inherent differences in individual elements is incorporated into adaptation decisions. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossing structures to examine the performance under different climate scenarios of policies that allow for multiple adaptation strategies with varying timing based on individual emplacement characteristics. Results indicate that a strategy with options flexibility informed by crossing characteristics offers a more efficient method of adaptation than do monolithic policies. In some cases this results in more cost-effective adaptation for agencies building long-lived, climate-sensitive infrastructure, even where detailed system data and analytical capacity is limited. Keywords: Climate adaptation, Stormwater management, Adaptation pathways

  8. Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roopali Phadke

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerabilities and health burdens of climate change fall disproportionately upon lower income communities and communities of color. Yet the very groups who are most affected by climate change impacts are least likely to be involved in climate adaptation discussions. These communities face critical barriers to involvement including historical disenfranchisement, as well as a sense that climate change is distant and not personally relevant. Boundary organizations are increasingly playing an important role in bringing science to bear on policy decision-making with respect to climate change adaptation, an issue fraught with political and ideological tensions. Our project aimed to engage underrepresented communities in climate change adaptation decision-making using a neighborhood consensus conference model developed and tested in several diverse districts of Saint Paul, Minnesota. Our partnership, a “linked chain” of boundary organizations, devised a neighborhood consensus conference model to present best-available climate data as tangible, place-based scenarios. In so doing, we made climate change “personal” for those who remain outside of climate change planning discourses and opened an opportunity for them to assess their community’s vulnerabilities and communicate their priorities for public investment. Our neighborhood-based model built trust and social capital with local residents and allowed us to bring new voices into conversations around climate change adaptation concerns and priorities. We believe this work will have a long term impact on local climate adaptation planning decisions.

  9. Consultant choice across decision contexts: are abortion decisions different?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finken, L L; Jacobs, J E

    1996-04-01

    A survey conducted among college students in the midwestern US indicated that abortion decision-making consultation patterns differ substantially from those associated with other types of decisions. Surveyed were 169 predominantly White, middle-income students (68 males and 101 females) 18-20 years of age recruited from an introductory psychology class. Participants were presented with vignettes that pertained to four types of decisions: abortion (unplanned pregnancy), medical (cancer treatment type), future (career move), and interpersonal (crisis with a friend). For each decision, students were asked who they would consult (specific family members, significant others, friends, various professionals) and the order in which they would consult them. The mean number of consultants selected was 3.72 for abortion, 5.54 for medical, 4.90 for future-oriented, and 2.41 for interpersonal decisions. Significant others were selected most often for all decision scenarios; however, the highest frequency of consultation and lowest mean rank order for the significant other was on the abortion decision. The next most important consultant for abortion decisions was friends, then family members, and, finally, professionals. The only gender difference was a greater tendency for females to consult their mothers. For every category of consultant (except best friend), the pattern differed depending on the type of decision. These findings underscore the importance of considering context and multifaceted approaches in the design of programs aimed at enhancing adolescents' decision-making skills.

  10. DECISIONS, METHODS AND TECHNIQUES RELATED TO DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boghean Florin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalised uncertainty, a phenomenon that today’s managers are facing as part of their professional experience, makes it impossible to anticipate the way the business environment will evolve or what will be the consequences of the decisions they plan to implement. Any decision making process within the company entails the simultaneous presence of a number of economic, technical, juridical, human and managerial variables. The development and the approval of a decision is the result of decision making activities developed by the decision maker and sometimes by a decision support team or/and a decision support system (DSS. These aspects related to specific applications of decision support systems in risk management will be approached in this research paper. Decisions in general and management decisions in particular are associated with numerous risks, due to their complexity and increasing contextual orientation. In each business entity, there are concerns with the implementation of risk management in order to improve the likelihood of meeting objectives, the trust of the parties involved, increase the operational safety and security as well as the protection of the environment, minimise losses, improve organisational resilience in order to diminish the negative impact on the organisation and provide a solid foundation for decision making. Since any business entity is considered to be a wealth generator, the analysis of their performance should not be restricted to financial efficiency alone, but will also encompass their economic efficiency as well. The type of research developed in this paper entails different dimensions: conceptual, methodological, as well as empirical testing. Subsequently, the conducted research entails a methodological side, since the conducted activities have resulted in the presentation of a simulation model that is useful in decision making processes on the capital market. The research conducted in the present paper

  11. A minimax sequential procedure in the context of computerized adaptive mastery testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for variable-length mastery tests in case three mastery classification decisions (nonmastery, partial mastery, and mastery) are distinguished. In a variable-length or adaptive mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master, a

  12. Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

    KAUST Repository

    Alsolami, Fawaz

    2016-04-25

    ‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important areas of applications are knowledge extraction and representation. The benefit of considering inhibitory rules is connected with the fact that in some situations they can describe more knowledge than the decision ones. Decision tables with many-valued decisions arise in combinatorial optimization, computational geometry, fault diagnosis, and especially under the processing of data sets. In this thesis, various examples of real-life problems are considered which help to understand the motivation of the investigation. We extend relatively simple results obtained earlier for decision rules over decision tables with many-valued decisions to the case of inhibitory rules. The behavior of Shannon functions (which characterize complexity of rule systems) is studied for finite and infinite information systems, for global and local approaches, and for decision and inhibitory rules. The extensions of dynamic programming for the study of decision rules over decision tables with single-valued decisions are generalized to the case of decision tables with many-valued decisions. These results are also extended to the case of inhibitory rules. As a result, we have algorithms (i) for multi-stage optimization of rules relative to such criteria as length or coverage, (ii) for counting the number of optimal rules, (iii) for construction of Pareto optimal points for bi-criteria optimization problems, (iv) for construction of graphs describing relationships between two cost functions, and (v) for construction of graphs describing relationships between cost and accuracy of rules. The applications of created tools include comparison (based on information about Pareto optimal points) of greedy heuristics for bi-criteria optimization of rules

  13. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...

  14. Exploring adaptive program behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnichsen, Lars Frydendal; Probst, Christian W.

    Modern computer systems are increasingly complex, with ever changing bottlenecks. This makes it difficult to ensure consistent performance when porting software, or even running it. Adaptivity, ie, switching between program variations, and dynamic recompilation have been suggested as solutions. B...

  15. Adaptive digital filters

    CERN Document Server

    Kovačević, Branko; Milosavljević, Milan

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive Digital Filters” presents an important discipline applied to the domain of speech processing. The book first makes the reader acquainted with the basic terms of filtering and adaptive filtering, before introducing the field of advanced modern algorithms, some of which are contributed by the authors themselves. Working in the field of adaptive signal processing requires the use of complex mathematical tools. The book offers a detailed presentation of the mathematical models that is clear and consistent, an approach that allows everyone with a college level of mathematics knowledge to successfully follow the mathematical derivations and descriptions of algorithms.   The algorithms are presented in flow charts, which facilitates their practical implementation. The book presents many experimental results and treats the aspects of practical application of adaptive filtering in real systems, making it a valuable resource for both undergraduate and graduate students, and for all others interested in m...

  16. Adaptive optics in ophthalmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iroshnikov, Nikita G.; Larichev, Andrey V.

    2006-09-01

    We present the experimental implementation of ophthalmic diagnostic systems with adaptive optics compensation of human eye aberration. The systems feature high speed operation and utilize deformable bimorph mirrors for wavefront correction. The results of aberration measurements and correction are discussed.

  17. Adaptation and Influence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paster, Thomas

    on influence. These two dimensions - adaptation and influence - result in four ideal types: business-dominated social compromise, imposed social compromise, business dominance, and political confrontation. Examples from German welfare state history illustrate these four types. The paper suggests...

  18. Exploring Adaptive Program Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnichsen, Lars Frydendal; Probst, Christian W.

    Modern computer systems are increasingly complex, with ever changing bottlenecks. This makes it difficult to ensure consistent performance when porting software, or even running it. Adaptivity, ie, switching between program variations, and dynamic recompilation have been suggested as solutions. B...

  19. Adaptive Architectural Envelope

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foged, Isak Worre; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2010-01-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing variety of applications of adaptive architectural structures for improvement of structural performance by recognizing changes in their environments and loads, adapting to meet goals, and using past events to improve future performance or maintain serviceability....... The general scopes of this paper are to develop a new adaptive kinetic architectural structure, particularly a reconfigurable architectural structure which can transform body shape from planar geometries to hyper-surfaces using different control strategies, i.e. a transformation into more than one or two...... different shape alternatives. The adaptive structure is a proposal for a responsive building envelope which is an idea of a first level operational framework for present and future investigations towards performance based responsive architectures through a set of responsive typologies. A mock- up concept...

  20. Adaptive Trajectory Design

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Adaptive Trajectory Design (ATD) is an original concept for quick and efficient end-to-end trajectory designs using proven piece-wise dynamical methods. With ongoing...