Senglaub, Michael E.
This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.
Andersen, Christian; Sørensen, Bent
Based on the hypothesis that Peircean semiotics can reveal how the construction of comprehension is at least partly a function of the structure of composition, the scope of this article is to present a new categorization of print advertising. The categorization consists of six different advertising...... types and is developed on the basis of an analysis of 150 quarto-, half-, and full-page advertisements from the Danish morning paper Berlingske Tidende. There are basically two traditions in advertising research — a semiotic one and a cognitive one. But none of these traditions have been used to suggest...... a possible relation between composition and the effects of comprehension, as the conceptual foundation for a categorization seems, as does the Peircean variant of semiotics, to be very limited in advertising research as such. Generally seen, the purpose of the development of the present categorization...
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — A decision support for the Native Adaptive Management Program (NPAM). The documents provide tall and mixed grass decision policies in relation to the management...
will enable proactive analysis within the decision support layer to anticipate, request, compute , and pre-position information supporting the decision... Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS) Final Report CDRL: C001 CLIN: 0006 Contract Number: N00014-14-P-1187 Submitted...PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 12/09/2014 Final Report 28 Jul 2014 - 31 Dec 2014 Proactive and
Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.
Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.
Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.
This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.
Perwin, E.; Levine, A.; Mikasa, G.; Noun, R. J.; Schaller, D.
If national programs are to be effective in the research and development of viable renewable resource technologies for the industrial sector, understanding industry's decision criteria will be important. The results of a preliminary investigation of the decision criteria of potential and actual users of solar industrial process heat systems are presented. Detailed interviews were completed with decision-makers from ten manufacturing firms. Based on economic theory, it was assumed that corporate decision-makers assess the expected cost, revenue, and uncertainty of competing investment opportunities. These decision criteria are composed of factors that are financial, technical, and institutional. Clearly, the firms interviewed were more concerned with costs than any other category of decision criteria. Most of the firms also believed that there was less uncertainty with competing investments than with current solar technology. Based on this preliminary investigation, a more extensive survey of industrial firms is suggested to determine a more comprehensive list of significant decision criteria.
Murty, Vishnu P; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila
Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory-specifically item versus associative memory-in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to reengage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to reengage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations-such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior.
Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change Every morning, Ferran Adrià receives fresh products from his suppliers on Spain‘s Costa Brava. High...involved in this decision? Perhaps. Only a few kilometers from El Bulli, Joan , Josep, and Jordi Roca manage El Celler de Can Roca, currently
Andreas Krause,; Daniel Golovin,; Converse, Sarah J.
Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.
Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.
Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL
Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.
adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional
Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.
In the article an adaptive model of decision-making for financial markets based on the method of weighted indicators is considered. The model is built on signals from several standard mechanical trade systems (MTS) by generalizing and redistributing between them weight coefficients that change according to the effectiveness of the MTS. Calculations are per-formed by making use of price dynamic data from the international currency market FOREX.
adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional
Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.
This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.
Optimising both qualitative and quantitative factors is a key challenge in solving construction finance decisions. The semi-structured nature of construction finance optimisation problems precludes conventional optimisation techniques. With a desire to improve the performance of the canonical genetic algorithm (CCA) which is characterised by static crossover and mutation probability, and to provide contractors with a profit-risk trade-off curve and cash flow prediction, an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) model is developed. Ten projects being undertaken by a major construction firm in Hong Kong were used as case studies to evaluate the performance of the genetic algorithm (CA). The results of case study reveal that the ACA outperformed the CGA both in terms of its quality of solutions and the computational time required for a certain level of accuracy. The results also indicate that there is a potential for using the GA for modelling financial decisions should both quantitative and qualitative factors be optimised simultaneously.
Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.
Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this
The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals
Full Text Available The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible. In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.
Lin, B. B.; Little, L.
Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more
Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Berry, Nina M.; Kyker, Ronald D.
Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognize cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.
Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang
While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in
Leslie M. Roche
Full Text Available Grazinglands support the livelihoods of millions of people around the world, as well as supply critical ecosystem services. Communities reliant on rain-fed rangelands are potentially the most vulnerable to increasing climate variability given their dependence on highly climate-sensitive resources. Droughts, which are gradual natural hazards, pose substantial and recurrent economic and ecological stresses to these systems. This study examined management decision-making based on survey responses of 479 California ranchers to: (1 identify the types of drought strategies in-place across California’s rangelands and the operation variables driving strategy selection; and (2 examine how individual drought adaptation is enhanced by decision-making factors. Four types of in-place drought strategies were identified and ordered along a gradient of increasing intensity (number of practices used. Significant background variables driving strategy selection were operation experience with drought, type of livestock operation, grazing system, and land ownership types. Information resource networks, goal setting for sustainable natural resources, and management capacity all acted to enhance individual drought adaptation—defined here by active drought planning and the number of both reactive and proactive drought practices used. Overall, analyses revealed that flexibility in management is a key component of adapting to and coping with drought. Climate policy planning should take into account the diversity of strategies that have been developed by ranchers for multiple generations and within the context of their unique operations, as well as support these working landscapes via a range of adaptation and mitigation options to reduce vulnerability across all types of operations.
Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt
For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…
Pulwarty, R. S.
As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks
Gupta, Anupam; Nagarajan, Viswanath; Ravi, R
We consider the problem of constructing optimal decision trees: given a collection of tests which can disambiguate between a set of $m$ possible diseases, each test having a cost, and the a-priori likelihood of the patient having any particular disease, what is a good adaptive strategy to perform these tests to minimize the expected cost to identify the disease? We settle the approximability of this problem by giving a tight $O(\\log m)$-approximation algorithm. We also consider a more substantial generalization, the Adaptive TSP problem. Given an underlying metric space, a random subset $S$ of cities is drawn from a known distribution, but $S$ is initially unknown to us--we get information about whether any city is in $S$ only when we visit the city in question. What is a good adaptive way of visiting all the cities in the random subset $S$ while minimizing the expected distance traveled? For this problem, we give the first poly-logarithmic approximation, and show that this algorithm is best possible unless w...
Farid, Dewan Md; Rahman, Mohammad Zahidur; 10.5121/ijnsa.2010.2202
In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposed algorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS). We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learn...
Hamlin, Robert P
This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best(2) ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not.
Dewan Md. Farid
Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposedalgorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learning algorithms by employing on the KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset. The experimental results prove that the proposed algorithm achieved high detection rates (DR andsignificant reduce false positives (FP for different types of network intrusions using limited computational resources
Schaub, Florian; Könings, Bastian; Weber, Michael; Kargl, Frank
In ubiquitous systems control of privacy settings will be increasingly difficult due to the pervasive nature of sensing and communication capabilities. We identify challenges for privacy decisions in ubiquitous systems and propose a system for in situ privacy decision support. When context changes o
Terejanu, Gabriel; Singh, Tarunraj; Scott, Peter D
Given a decision process based on the approximate probability density function returned by a data assimilation algorithm, an interaction level between the decision making level and the data assimilation level is designed to incorporate the information held by the decision maker into the data assimilation process. Here the information held by the decision maker is a loss function at a decision time which maps the state space onto real numbers which represent the threat associated with different possible outcomes or states. The new probability density function obtained will address the region of interest, the area in the state space with the highest threat, and will provide overall a better approximation to the true conditional probability density function within it. The approximation used for the probability density function is a Gaussian mixture and a numerical example is presented to illustrate the concept.
Irwin P. Levin
Full Text Available While previous research has found that children make more risky decisions than their parents, little is known about the developmental trajectory for the ability to make advantageous decisions. In a sample of children, 5--11 years old, we administered a new risky decision making task in which the relative expected value (EV of the risky and riskless choice options was varied over trials. Younger children (age 5--7 showed significantly less responsiveness to EV differences than their parents on both trials involving risky gains and trials involving risky losses. For older children (age 8--11 this deficit was smaller overall but was greater on loss trials than on gain trials. Children of both ages made more risky choices than adults when risky choices were disadvantageous. We further analyzed these results in terms of children's ability to utilize probability and outcome information, and discussed them in terms of developing brain structures vital for decision making under uncertainty.
Full Text Available In article are motivated actual problems of the shaping the mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions with provision for specifics of management process operation and developments enterprise in condition of the contradiction of the problems its functional subdivisions. Is it Also designed methods of the shaping the intercepting the functional subdivisions within the framework of procedures budgetation in accordance with principle complex decision making.
Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen
mode in DVC. The adaptive mode decision is not only based on quality of key frames but also the rate of Wyner-Ziv (WZ) frames. To improve noise distribution estimation for a more accurate mode decision, a residual motion compensation is proposed to estimate a current noise residue based on a previously...
The modern war features a highly distributed coordination. In the face of great time constrains, it is important to change command organizations to adapt to the real environment. Therefore it's a key step to set up adaptive C2 teams. In this paper, the relational problems about distributed C2 organizational structure adaptation are discussed, and the methodology for team decision-making design based on the object-oriented technique is studied.
G. Nur Yilmaz
Full Text Available 3-Dimensional (3D video adaptation decision taking is an open field in which not many researchers have carried out investigations yet compared to 3D video display, coding, etc. Moreover, utilizing ambient illumination as an environmental context for 3D video adaptation decision taking has particularly not been studied in literature to date. In this paper, a user perception model, which is based on determining perception characteristics of a user for a 3D video content viewed under a particular ambient illumination condition, is proposed. Using the proposed model, a 3D video bit rate adaptation decision taking technique is developed to determine the adapted bit rate for the 3D video content to maintain 3D video quality perception by considering the ambient illumination condition changes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is capable of exploiting the changes in ambient illumination level to use network resources more efficiently without sacrificing the 3D video quality perception.
Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo
We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.
Chen, Li; Gross, Thilo
We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures the phase transition to collective motion in swarming systems and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.
Gunay, Osman; Toreyin, Behçet Ugur; Kose, Kivanc; Cetin, A Enis
In this paper, an entropy-functional-based online adaptive decision fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several subalgorithms, each of which yields its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular subalgorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights that are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing subalgorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video-based wildfire detection system was developed to evaluate the performance of the decision fusion algorithm. In this case, image data arrive sequentially, and the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower, verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. The simulation results are presented.
WU Ji; WANG Zuoying
Gaussian Similarity Analysis (GSA)algorithm can be used to estimate the similarity between two Gaussian distributed variables with full covariance matrix. Based on this algorithm, we propose a method in speaker adaptation of covariance. It is different from the traditional algorithms, which mainly focus on the adaptation of mean vector of state observation probability density. A binary decision tree is constructed offline with the similarity measure and the adaptation procedure is data-driven. It can be shown from the experiments that we can get a significant further improvement over the mean vectors adaptation.
Luong, Huynh Van; Forchhammer, Søren; Slowack, Jurgen;
Distributed video coding (DVC) is a coding paradigm that entails low complexity encoding by exploiting the source statistics at the decoder. To improve the DVC coding efficiency, this paper proposes a novel adaptive technique for mode decision to control and take advantage of skip mode and intra...
Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.
Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.
Daniel A. DeCaro
Full Text Available Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1 encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2 garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3 cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.
Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm
Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... on reviewing the current knowledge on risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems and on potential adaptation options. The paper finds that short and longer term action on climate risk management of energy systems strongly depends on: Strengthening the capacity to model and project climate change and its...
Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl;
rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...
Martinho, Maria Júlia Costa Marques; Martins, Maria Manuela Ferreira Pereira da Silva; Angelo, Margareth
Decision making is an area of health research that has gained importance both for the partnership models of care that give prominence to the patient and family, either by growing concern about quality and customer satisfaction with the care provided. So we decided to make the cultural adaptation and to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version "The Satisfaction with Decision Scale" de Holmes-Rovner (1996), which aims to assess satisfaction with the decisions taken in health. The sample consisted of 521 nursing students the School of Nursing of Porto. The results of reliability tests show good internal consistency for the total items (Alpha Cronbach = 0.88). The psychometric study allows us to state that the Portuguese version of "The Satisfaction with Decision Scale", we call "Escala da Satisfação com a Decisão em Saúde", is an instrument comparable with the original in terms of validity and reliability.
Kathryn J. Bowen
Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.
Kelly Hale Design Interactive, Inc., Oviedo, Florida Robert G. Abbott Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico Amy Bolton, Ph.D. Office...holds a doctor of philosophy degree in computer science from the University of New Mexico . He has been a member of the technical staff at Sandia since...Decision Making 14 (5): 331–352. Macklin, C., M. J. Cook, C. S. Angus , C. S. G. Adams, S. Cook, and R. Cooper. 2002. Qualitative analysis of visualisation
Full Text Available The performance of business processes is measured and monitored in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs. If the monitoring results show that the KPI targets are violated, the underlying reasons have to be identified and the process should be adapted accordingly to address the violations. In this paper we propose an integrated monitoring, prediction and adaptation approach for preventing KPI violations of business process instances. KPIs are monitored continuously while the process is executed. Additionally, based on KPI measurements of historical process instances we use decision tree learning to construct classification models which are then used to predict the KPI value of an instance while it is still running. If a KPI violation is predicted, we identify adaptation requirements and adaptation strategies in order to prevent the violation.
Berger, Rachel; Chambwera, Muyeye
Cost-benefit analysis has important uses – and crucial blind spots. It represents only one of several economic tools that can be used to assess options for adapting to climate change in developing countries. The Nairobi Work Programme would best serve governments by considering not just cost-benefit approaches, but the entire range of tools. By developing a 'toolkit' that helps users choose from a variety of evaluation methods, we can support adaptation decisions that promote equity, put local people in control and allow for dynamic responses to climate change as it unfolds.
Juliane E. Kaemmer
Full Text Available Individuals have been shown to adaptively select decision strategies depending on the environment structure. Two experiments extended this research to the group level. Subjects (N = 240 worked either individually or in two-person groups, or dyads, on a multi-attribute paired-comparison task. They were randomly assigned to two different environments that favored one of two prototypical decision strategies---weighted additive or take-the-best (between-subjects design in Experiment 1 and within-subject design in Experiment 2. Performance measures revealed that both individuals and dyads learned to adapt over time. A higher starting and overall performance rate in the environment in which weighted additive performed best led to the conclusion that weighted additive served as a default strategy. When this default strategy had to be replaced, because the environmental structure favored take-the-best, the superior adaptive capacity of dyads became observable in the form of a steeper learning rate. Analyses of nominal dyads indicate that real dyads performed at the level of the best individuals. Fine-grained analyses of information-search data are presented. Results thus point to the strong moderating role of the environment structure when comparing individual with group performance and are discussed within the framework of adaptive strategy selection.
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian
There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated...... uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver...
Kelli L. Larson
Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.
Full Text Available Paule Poulin,1 Lea Austen,1 Catherine M Scott,2 Michelle Poulin,1 Nadine Gall,2 Judy Seidel,3 René Lafrenière1 1Department of Surgery, 2Knowledge Management, 3Public Health Innovation and Decision Support, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada Purpose: Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods: We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada, for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1 development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2 education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3 evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4 joint evaluation via retreats, 5 synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6 evaluation of the adaptation process. Results: Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion: Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence
Weijden, T.T. van der; Pieterse, A.H.; Koelewijn-van Loon, M.S.; Knaapen, L.; Legare, F.; Boivin, A.; Burgers, J.S.; Stiggelbout, A.M.; Faber, M.J.; Elwyn, G.
BACKGROUND: To explore how clinical practice guidelines can be adapted to facilitate shared decision making. METHODS: This was a qualitative key-informant study with group discussions and semi-structured interviews. First, 75 experts in guideline development or shared decision making participated in
Full Text Available A new non-coherent chaotic modulation technique based on adaptive decision threshold is proposed for the UltraWideBand (UWB Direct Chaotic Communication (DCC technology. The principal advantages of the proposed technique are: (1 Removing the threshold problem of the classical Chaotic On-Off Keying modulation technique which uses a nonzero decision threshold; (2 Providing a high throughput comparing to the others techniques since it do not uses any delay at the modulation; (3 Reducing the transmitted power, thanks to a transmitted bit energy devised by two. The obtained simulation results show high Bit Error Rate performances of the proposed technique applied in an UWB DCC system. In addition, the new chaotic modulation is more suitable in all DCC-based communications schemes.
Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.
Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making
Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise
Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector
Ajay Gajanan Bhave
Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM approaches are considered useful for supporting adaptation decision making, yet case study applications in developing countries are rare. This review paper examines the potential to expand the geographical and sectoral foci of RDM as part of the repertoire of approaches to support adaptation. We review adaptation decision problems hitherto relatively unexplored, for which RDM approaches may have value. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, suggest potential sectors for application and comment on future directions. We identify that data requirements, lack of examples of RDM in actual decision-making, limited applicability for surprise events, and resource constraints are likely to constrain successful application of RDM approaches in developing countries. We discuss opportunities for RDM approaches to address decision problems associated with urban socio-environmental and water-energy-food nexus issues, forest resources management, disaster risk management and conservation management issues. We examine potential entry points for RDM approaches through Environmental Impact Assessments and Strategic Environmental Assessments, which are relatively well established in decision making processes in many developing countries. We conclude that despite some barriers, and with modification, RDM approaches show potential for wider application in developing country contexts.
Gerber, Leah R; Wielgus, Jeffrey; Sala, Enric
Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper (Mycteroperca rosacea) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate (lambda) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate lambda based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the lambda declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive lambda value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of lambda increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.
Lyons, J.E.; Runge, M.C.; Laskowski, H.P.; Kendall, W.L.
In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring
Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael
As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496
Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria
Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme
Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli
The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…
David N. Yates
Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.
Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.
Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.
Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.
Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.
White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.
The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and
Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can be...
Giezen, Mendel; Bertolini, Luca; Salet, Willem
There is a tendency in policy to reduce the complexity of planning and decision-making by simplifying both the process and the scope of projects. However, by framing a planning project's scope or process in a narrow way at an early stage, the possibility of adapting to changes in the context, and th
Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.
The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such
Epstein Richard H
Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of
Full Text Available A Non-linear adaptive decision based algorithm with robust motion estimation technique is proposed for removal of impulse noise, Gaussian noise and mixed noise (impulse and Gaussian with edge and fine detail preservation in images and videos. The algorithm includes detection of corrupted pixels and the estimation of values for replacing the corrupted pixels. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is that an appropriate filter is used for replacing the corrupted pixel based on the estimation of the noise variance present in the filtering window. This leads to reduced blurring and better fine detail preservation even at the high mixed noise density. It performs both spatial and temporal filtering for removal of the noises in the filter window of the videos. The Improved Cross Diamond Search Motion Estimation technique uses Least Median Square as a cost function, which shows improved performance than other motion estimation techniques with existing cost functions. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms in the visual point of view and in Peak Signal to Noise Ratio, Mean Square Error and Image Enhancement Factor.
Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi
The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and
INVESTIGATION OF ADAPTIVE DECISION FEEDBACK EQUALIZATION FOR DIGITAL HF LINKS EMPLOYING PSKK MODULATION B.E. Sawyer Mission Research Corporation P.O. Drawer 719...IF THE ADDRESSEE IS NO LONGER EMPLOYED BY YOUR ORGANIZATION. 4.’I 4,D % ,=..- ..: O4.’ UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Data...Rot FEEDBACK EQUAL Z FOR IGITAL HF LINKS TcnclRpr PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBERMRC-R-801- 7, AUTHORf,, 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(-) Blair E
Managers and policy makers from regional and national institutions in the Caribbean require knowledge of the likely impacts and hazards arising from the present and future climate that are specific to their responsibility and geographical range, and relevant to their planning time-horizons. Knowledge, experience and the political support to develop appropriate adaptation strategies are also required. However, the climate information available for the region is of limited use as: observational records are intermittent and typically of short duration; climate model projections of the weather suffer from scale and bias issues; and statistical downscaling to provide locally relevant unbiased climate change information remains sporadic. Tropical cyclone activity is a considerable sporadic hazard in the region and yet related weather information is limited to historic events. Further, there is a lack of guidance for managers and policy makers operating with very limited resources to utilize such information within their remit. The CARIWIG project (June 2012 - May 2015) will be presented, reflecting on stakeholder impact, best practice and lessons learned. This project seeks to address the climate service needs of the Caribbean region through a combination of capacity building and improved provision of climate information services. An initial workshop with regional-scale stakeholders initiated a dialogue to develop a realistic shared vision of the needed information services which could be provided by the project. Capacity building is then achieved on a number of levels: knowledge and expertise sharing between project partners; raising understanding and knowledge of resources that support national and regional institutions' adaptation decisions; developing case studies in key sectors to test and demonstrate the information services; training for stakeholder technical staff in the use of the provided services; the development of a support network within and out
Uozumi, Ryuji; Hamada, Chikuma
Adaptive designs in oncology clinical trials with interim analyses for population selection could be used in the development of targeted therapies if a predefined biomarker hypothesis exists. In this article, we consider an interim analysis using overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and both OS and PFS, to determine whether the whole population or only the biomarker-positive population should continue into the subsequent stage of the trial, whereas the final decision is made based on OS data only. In order to increase the probability of selecting the most appropriate population at the interim analysis, we propose an interim decision-making strategy in adaptive designs with correlated endpoints considering the post-progression survival (PPS) magnitudes. In our approach, the interim decision is made on the basis of predictive power by incorporating information on OS as well as PFS to supplement the incomplete OS data. Simulation studies assuming a targeted therapy demonstrated that our interim decision-making procedure performs well in terms of selecting the proper population, especially under a scenario in which PPS affects the correlation between OS and PFS.
Full Text Available Although Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-Advanced system has benefited from Carrier Aggregation (CA technology, the advent of CA technology has increased handover scenario probability through user mobility. That leads to a user’s throughput degradation and its outage probability. Therefore, a handover decision algorithm must be designed properly in order to contribute effectively for reducing this phenomenon. In this paper, Multi-Influence Factors for Adaptive Handover Decision Algorithm (MIF-AHODA have been proposed through CA implementation in LTE-Advanced system. MIF-AHODA adaptively makes handover decisions based on different decision algorithms, which are selected based on the handover scenario type and resource availability. Simulation results show that MIF-AHODA enhances system performance better than the other considered algorithms from the literature by 8.3 dB, 46%, and 51% as average gains over all the considered algorithms in terms of SINR, cell-edge spectral efficiency, and outage probability reduction, respectively.
Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion
on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...
John L. Innes
Full Text Available A logical starting point for climate change adaptation in the forest sector is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This should be followed by implementation of these options and monitoring their success in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context. Here, we implement an approach to identify locally appropriate adaptation options by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners while at the same time, building capacity within this community to implement the results. We engaged 30 forest practitioners who are involved with the implementation of a regional forest management plan in identifying climate change vulnerabilities and evaluating alternative adaptation options. A structured decision-making approach was used to frame the assessment. Practitioners identified 24 adaptation options that they considered important to implement in order to achieve the regional goals and objectives of sustainable forest management in light of climate change.
Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki
Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.
Ahmed Bahgat El Seddawy
Full Text Available Decision Support System (DSS is equivalent synonym as management information systems (MIS. Most of imported data are being used in solutions like data mining (DM. Decision supporting systems include also decisions made upon individual data from external sources, management feeling, and various other data sources not included in business intelligence. Successfully supporting managerial decision-making is critically dependent upon the availability of integrated, high quality information organized and presented in a timely and easily understood manner. Data mining have emerged to meet this need. They serve as anintegrated repository for internal and external data-intelligence critical to understanding and evaluating the business within its environmental context. With the addition of models, analytic tools, and user interfaces, they have the potential to provide actionable information that supports effective problem and opportunity identification, critical decision-making, and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The proposed system will support top level management to make a good decision in any time under any uncertain environment.
hmed Bahgat El Seddawy
Full Text Available Decision Support System (DSS is equivalent synonym as management information systems (MIS. Most of imported data are being used in solutions like data mining (DM. Decision supporting systems include also decisions made upon individual data from external sources, management feeling, and various other data sources not included in business intelligence. Successfully supporting managerial decision-making is critically dependent upon the availability of integrated, high quality information organized and presented in a timely and easily understood manner. Data mining have emerged to meet this need. They serve as anintegrated repository for internal and external data-intelligence critical to understanding and evaluating the business within its environmental context. With the addition of models, analytic tools, and user interfaces, they have the potential to provide actionable information that supports effective problem and opportunity identification, critical decision-making, and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The proposed system will support top level management to make a good decision in any time under any uncertain environment.
Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M
Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity.
Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.
This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary an
A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’....
E. V. Kondratyonok
Full Text Available The results of the analysis of the need and intensity of control to the students at different levels of readiness in accordance with the theoretical model in the implementation of adaptive educational resource. It is proposed to use a factor driving the first impact at each stage of training, depending on the desired result indicator and opportunities of the teacher, the composition and content of training modules adaptive educational resource and budget allocation teacher training load.
Makuch, Gary; And Others
Intended for local school district personnel, the document suggests a model for assisting decision makers in placing handicapped students in the least restrictive environment (LRE). Basic considerations of a multidisciplinary team in determining the appropriate placement for the handicapped students are listed (including the nature and degree of…
Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.
NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.
Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael
As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.
Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.
The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.
Full Text Available Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted—i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.
Branson of Virgin -Atlantic, and Paul Orfalea of Kinko’s describe cognitive strategies such as thinking in pictures, employing analogies, and...cognitively adaptable in an environment that is inherently dynamic. 10 Entrepreneurs such as John Chambers of Cisco Corporation, Charles Schwab, Richard
Beersma, B.; Hollenbeck, J.R.; Conlon, D.E.; Humphrey, S.E.; Moon, H.; Ilgen, D.R.
Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,
Wood, Stacey; Busemeyer, Jerome; Koling, Andreas; Cox, Cathy R; Davis, Hasker
Older adults process emotional information differently than younger adults and may demonstrate less of a negativity bias on cognitive tasks. The Iowa Gambling Task designed by A. Bechara, H. Damasio, D. Tranel, and A. R. Damasio (1997) has been used to examine the integration of emotion and cognition in a risky-choice decision task and may give insight into differences in the decision-making strategies in younger and older adults. Eighty-eight younger adults (18-34 years) and 67 older adults (65-88 years) completed the Iowa Gambling Task. Using a theoretical decomposition of the task designed by J. R. Busemeyer and J. C. Stout (2002), the authors found that both groups were successful at solving the task but used very different strategies that reflected each group's strength. For younger adults, that strength was learning and memory. For older adults, that strength was an accurate representation of wins and losses (valence).
Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.
Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Conjeti, Sailesh; Katouzian, Amin; Roy, Abhijit Guha; Peter, Loïc; Sheet, Debdoot; Carlier, Stéphane; Laine, Andrew; Navab, Nassir
In this paper, we propose a supervised domain adaptation (DA) framework for adapting decision forests in the presence of distribution shift between training (source) and testing (target) domains, given few labeled examples. We introduce a novel method for DA through an error-correcting hierarchical transfer relaxation scheme with domain alignment, feature normalization, and leaf posterior reweighting to correct for the distribution shift between the domains. For the first time we apply DA to the challenging problem of extending in vitro trained forests (source domain) for in vivo applications (target domain). The proof-of-concept is provided for in vivo characterization of atherosclerotic tissues using intravascular ultrasound signals, where presence of flowing blood is a source of distribution shift between the two domains. This potentially leads to misclassification upon direct deployment of in vitro trained classifier, thus motivating the need for DA as obtaining reliable in vivo training labels is often challenging if not infeasible. Exhaustive validations and parameter sensitivity analysis substantiate the reliability of the proposed DA framework and demonstrates improved tissue characterization performance for scenarios where adaptation is conducted in presence of only a few examples. The proposed method can thus be leveraged to reduce annotation costs and improve computational efficiency over conventional retraining approaches.
Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.
Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.
Serrano, Diego; D'Amours, Damien
The drive to proliferate and the need to maintain genome integrity are two of the most powerful forces acting on biological systems. When these forces enter in conflict, such as in the case of cells experiencing DNA damage, feedback mechanisms are activated to ensure that cellular proliferation is stopped and no further damage is introduced while cells repair their chromosomal lesions. In this circumstance, the DNA damage response dominates over the biological drive to proliferate, and may even result in programmed cell death if the damage cannot be repaired efficiently. Interestingly, the drive to proliferate can under specific conditions overcome the DNA damage response and lead to a reactivation of the proliferative program in checkpoint-arrested cells. This phenomenon is known as adaptation to DNA damage and is observed in all eukaryotic species where the process has been studied, including normal and cancer cells in humans. Polo-like kinases (PLKs) are critical regulators of the adaptation response to DNA damage and they play key roles at the interface of cell cycle and checkpoint-related decisions in cells. Here, we review recent progress in defining the specific roles of PLKs in the adaptation process and how this conserved family of eukaryotic kinases can integrate the fundamental need to preserve genomic integrity with effective cellular proliferation.
Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven
Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to
Full Text Available While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.
Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél
• Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change
Van Otterlo, M
Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. This book studies lifting Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning and dynamic programming to the first-order (or, relational) setting.
Schneeweiss, S; Eichler, H-G; Garcia-Altes, A; Chinn, C; Eggimann, A-V; Garner, S; Goettsch, W; Lim, R; Löbker, W; Martin, D; Müller, T; Park, B J; Platt, R; Priddy, S; Ruhl, M; Spooner, A; Vannieuwenhuyse, B; Willke, R J
Analyses of healthcare databases (claims, electronic health records [EHRs]) are useful supplements to clinical trials for generating evidence on the effectiveness, harm, use, and value of medical products in routine care. A constant stream of data from the routine operation of modern healthcare systems, which can be analyzed in rapid cycles, enables incremental evidence development to support accelerated and appropriate access to innovative medicines. Evidentiary needs by regulators, Health Technology Assessment, payers, clinicians, and patients after marketing authorization comprise (1) monitoring of medication performance in routine care, including the materialized effectiveness, harm, and value; (2) identifying new patient strata with added value or unacceptable harms; and (3) monitoring targeted utilization. Adaptive biomedical innovation (ABI) with rapid cycle database analytics is successfully enabled if evidence is meaningful, valid, expedited, and transparent. These principles will bring rigor and credibility to current efforts to increase research efficiency while upholding evidentiary standards required for effective decision-making in healthcare.
Full Text Available Many methods exist for the purpose of classification of an unknown dataset. Decision tree induction is one of the well-known methods for classification. Decision tree method operates under two different modes: nonadaptive and adaptive mode. The non adaptive mode of operation is applied when the data set is completely mature and available or the data set is static and their will be no changes in dataset attributes. However when the dataset is likely to have changes in the values and attributes leading to fluctuation i.e., monthly, quarterly or annually, then under the circumstances decision tree method operating under adaptive mode needs to be applied, as the conventional non-adaptive method fails, as it needs to be applied once again starting from scratch on the augmented dataset. This makes things expensive in terms of time and space. Sometimes attributesare added into the dataset, at the same time number of records also increases. This paper mainly studies the behavioral aspects of classification model particularly, when number of attr bute in dataset increase due to spontaneous changes in the value(s/attribute(s. Our investigative studies have shown that accuracy of decision tree model can be maintained when number of attributes including class increase in dataset which increases thenumber of records as well. In addition, accuracy also can be maintained when number of values increase in class attribute of dataset. The way Adaptive mode decision tree method operates is that it reads data instance by instance and incorporates the same through absorption to the said model; update the model according to valueof attribute particular and specific to the instance. As the time required to updating decision tree can be less than introducing it from scratch, thus eliminating the problem of introducing decision tree repeatedly from scratch and at the same time gaining upon memory and time.
Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl
This Ph.D. project aims at developing a new decision-support framework for managing climate change in coastal areas. The framework is developed in order to facilitate screening of climate change impacts in all coastal areas worldwide and is designed as a complete system for combined multi......-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management. The framework addresses the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding and can be used for hazard management at local, regional and national level. It is developed as a simple system that can be applied in areas with limited...... data availability and institutional capacity and is especially targeted the needs of developing countries. In order to make the framework easily accessible to coastal managers, it is designed as a graphical tool – the Coastal Hazard Wheel – that functions as a key for determining the characteristics...
P. J. Knight
Full Text Available A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.
Full Text Available Problem statement: Speech Enhancement plays an important role in any of the speech processing systems like speech recognition, mobile communication, hearing aid. Approach: In this work, human perceptual auditory masking effect is incorporated into the single channel speech enhancement algorithm. The algorithm is based on a criterion by which the audible noise may be masked rather than being attenuated and thereby reducing the chance of distortion to speech. The basic decision directed approach is for efficient reduction of musical noise, that includes the estimation of the a priori SNR which is a crucial parameter of the spectral gain, follows the a posteriori SNR with a delay of one frame in speech frames. In this work a simple adaptive speech enhancement technique, using an adaptive sigmoid type function to determine the weighting factor of the TSDD algorithm is employed based on a sub band approach. In turn the spectral estimate is used to obtain a perceptual gain factor. Results: Objective and subjective measures like SNR, MSE, IS distance and were obtained, which shows the ability of the proposed method for efficient enhancement of noisy speech Conclusion/Recommendations: Performance assessment shows that our proposal can achieve a more significant noise reduction and a better spectral estimation of weak speech spectral components from a noisy signal as compared to the conventional speech enhancement algorithm.
Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark
This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperation the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.
Full Text Available Integrated natural resource management (INRM and its many closely related approaches are generally considered to be more effective than single-disciplinary approaches for managing the complex resource issues currently facing many countries. INRM approaches aim to integrate several disciplines and involve different stakeholders operating in their own subsystems across different spatial and temporal scales. These approaches focus on identifying management strategies for sustaining natural resource stocks and flows of goods and services as well as their underlying ecological processes. Changes in the behavior of consumers and producers and in the allocation of resources among uses, users, time, and space will be necessary to achieve sustainable development. To accomplish this, changes in focus, attitudes, and approaches to research and management will also be necessary. This paper argues that the key focus of INRM should not be the natural resource itself, but rather the interactions of humans with each other and with their natural environment, and the decisions they make about using and managing resources. Such decision-making processes aim to identify and implement action-oriented strategies and to apply economic and noneconomic instruments that motivate behavioral changes, allowing for different responses to various economic imperatives. This process should be guided by constructivist philosophy and supported by rigorous cross-disciplinary research and active stakeholder participation. It must be compatible with dialectic decision making to reflect the different views and objectives of the stakeholders, the presence of incomplete information, and, at times, the fact that researchers have only a poor understanding of the dynamics of subsystems and their interactions. There must also be iterative, regular monitoring and fine-tuning of the management strategies chosen. We prefer to call the entire process an adaptive decision-making process (ADMP
van der Sluijs, Jeroen; Wardekker, Arjan
In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climat
Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.
In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives
Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David
This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.
A serial of errors occur in the human judgment and decision-making. Counter-intuitively, these biases, however, represent adaptive solutions to the decision-making problems. In this paper,we systemically outline the logical relationship in the self-adaptive decision-making state,through the application of error management theory in the self-adaptive decision-making. Finally this claim strongly suggests that why humans prefer to cooperate with strangers.%人类在判断和决策时总会出现一系列的错误，然而，在违反直觉的情形下，错误偏见本身代表了对决策判断问题的自适应性解决办法。本文描述错误偏见在自适应性决策过程中的逻辑关系，通过对错误管理理论在自适应性决策中的运用，解释了人们为什么愿意与陌生人合作的决策过程。
Smith, Howard A.
The main aim of this article is to describe central elements of, and the relationships among, three interrelated domains of inquiry. The first domain is Charles Peirce's semiotic theory which offers five concepts of special relevance to the other two domains: (a) primary components of the triadic sign, including the object, representamen, and…
Full Text Available This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control, investors tended to adapt the proﬁt maximizing strategy (rational. Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control, three (threat-high control and four (threat-low control, they tended to adapt the proﬁt satisfying strategy (rational-emotional, bad news handling strategy (emotional-rational, and self-preserving strategy (irrational respectively. The application of rational strategies are intended to obtain personal beneﬁts and proﬁt, while adapting irrational strategy is intended to recover emotional stability and reduce some other tensions. Another ﬁnding showed that for the investors, the relatively irrational decision formation was "harder" than that of rational.
Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette
Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.
Smith, Chadwin B
Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.
Kertzscher, Gustavo, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; Andersen, Claus E., E-mail: email@example.com [Centre for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark, DTU Nutech, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Tanderup, Kari, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital and Institute of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Norrebrogade 44, DK-8000 Aarhus (Denmark)
Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was
Huq, Rajibul; Kan, Patricia; Goetschalckx, Robby; Hébert, Debbie; Hoey, Jesse; Mihailidis, Alex
This paper presents an automated system for a rehabilitation robotic device that guides stroke patients through an upper-limb reaching task. The system uses a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) as its primary engine for decision-making. The POMDP allows the system to automatically modify exercise parameters to account for the specific needs and abilities of different individuals, and to use these parameters to take appropriate decisions about stroke rehabilitation exercises. The performance of the system was evaluated through various simulations and by comparing the decisions made by the system with those of a human therapist for a single patient. In general, the simulations showed promising results and the therapist thought the system decisions were believable.
Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David
Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing
Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization
André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan
To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.
Analyses using sub-samples of the complete probabilistic dataset showed that the Green Z-score had comparable reproducibility to Laplace and improved reproducibility compared to other current decision criteria, and unlike Laplace is able to accommodate different risk attitudes.
The objectives of the study were to expand present knowledge on the technology adoption and application rates for production inputs and fermentation processing related to farmers' decision- making, and to formulate an optimal technology application policy, particularly for smallholder cocoa farmers.
Kraus, Sascha; Meier, Fabian; Eggers, Felix; Bouncken, Ricarda B.; Schuessler, Felix
This paper delivers new insights into how psychic, cultural and geographical distance influence international marketing mix decisions on the basis of a choice-based conjoint analysis with 96 managers from Switzerland and Liechtenstein. In this experiment, the managers had to decide whether the four
Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara
Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously
李娜; 邓寒冰; 朴在林; 谭东明; 杨萍; 刘君
随着信息技术的快速发展，农业知识和数据在互联网中呈现爆发式增长，如何实现农业信息的精准推送是农业信息化领域所面临的重要问题。为此，提出一种面向农业领域知识的自适应决策模型，设计了面向农业领域知识的思维决策模型AKDM (agriculture knowledge decision-making model)，利用软件Agent主动采集网络环境中的知识信息，基于信息内容来推理、分析并导出结果，进而指导知识推送行为。结果表明：将农业本体知识转换成信念、愿望和意图集合，同时利用三者之间的决策推理关系指导知识推送行为，可以实现基于农业领域知识的自适应决策推理过程，且涉及的试验过程为实现农业信息的个性化智能推送提供了一个可行模型参考。%With the rapid development of information technology, agricultural knowledge and data have seen explosive growth in the internet. It has become a major problem facing the field of agricultural informatization to realize the precise pushing of agricultural information. This paper proposes an agricultural knowledge-oriented self-adaption decision-making model, the AKDM (agriculture knowledge decision-making model), which actively collects knowledge and information in the internet using Agent software, and performs reasoning, analyzing and result delivering based on the information collected, and finally giving instructions on knowledge pushing. The result showed it was possible to realize the self-adaption decision-making with regard to agricultural knowledge by converting agricultural knowledge into a cluster of faith, will and intention and guiding information pushing behavior by the relations of decision-making and reasoning among them. Thus, the experiment in this paper provides a feasible model for the intelligent personalized pushing of agricultural information.
Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.
Fusté, Josep; Frigola, David; Olivet, Miquel
To apply planning criteria on a territorial level, with a forward-looking approach and taking into account the specificities of each location, in the Health Map of Catalonia, scenarios have been constructed for the development and adaptation of services for the 2015 horizon. The territorial scale is that of the 37 areas into which Catalonia has been divided in order to promote a new form of decentralised, combined decision- making, through the Territorial Health Governments. The new territorial health organisation is the substrate which must enable the relationship between professionals and services that share the same reference population to be coordinated. This article deals with the methodology for constructing the scenarios, and a summary is given of the principal action proposals which arise from the map in the aforementioned 37 territories. Detailed content of the territorial scenarios is also given, based on two practical cases.
de Lamare, Rodrigo C; Sampaio-Neto, Raimundo
A space-time adaptive decision feedback (DF) receiver using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for joint equalization and interference suppression in direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems equipped with antenna arrays. The proposed receiver structure employs dynamically driven RNNs in the feedforward section for equalization and multiaccess interference (MAI) suppression and a finite impulse response (FIR) linear filter in the feedback section for performing interference cancellation. A data selective gradient algorithm, based upon the set-membership (SM) design framework, is proposed for the estimation of the coefficients of RNN structures and is applied to the estimation of the parameters of the proposed neural receiver structure. Simulation results show that the proposed techniques achieve significant performance gains over existing schemes.
Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)
Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César
Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.
Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus
We report findings from an analysis of 234 firm boundary decisions that a manufacturing firm has made during a 10 year period. Extensive interviews with all major decision makers located both at the headquarters and subsidiaries allow us to examine (a) who was involved in each boundary decision......, and (b) how the firm arrived at a particular transactional choice in each decision. We find that decision makers extensively adapt decision structures in order to effectively make governance mode choices. They adapt hierarchy span, i.e. the number of hierarchical levels involved, and expertise span, i.......e. the number of same-level decision makers with dissimilar knowledge basis. We observe that decision makers heavily rely on varying hierarchy and expertise span in order to improve the quality of the decision outcome. Central to the adaption of decision structures is that decision makers, over time...
Ker, Dai Fei Elmer; Weiss, Lee E; Junkers, Silvina N; Chen, Mei; Yin, Zhaozheng; Sandbothe, Michael F; Huh, Seung-il; Eom, Sungeun; Bise, Ryoma; Osuna-Highley, Elvira; Kanade, Takeo; Campbell, Phil G
Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and developing robotic cell
the customer is the Federal Government subjective bases for decisions were mentioned over three times as frequently as sophisticated methods of... satisfcations ? Much of the answer will depend on organizational antecedents and consequences (Bass, 1981). The Cascade. Based on dissatisfaction with his current...transactions (such as discounts to customers during off-seasons), by anticipating needed changes requiring technical adaptation (e.g. maintaining
Dai Fei Elmer Ker
Full Text Available Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and
Andersen, Torben Juul
This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation...
Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of
王雪松; 潘杰; 程玉虎; 曹戈
如何解决迁移学习中的负迁移问题并合理把握迁移的时机与方法,是影响迁移学习广泛应用的关键点.针对这个问题,提出一种基于相似度衡量机制的决策树自适应迁移方法(Self-adaptive transfer for decision trees based on a similarity metric,STDT).首先,根据源任务数据集是否允许访问,自适应地采用成分预测概率或路径预测概率对决策树间的相似性进行判定,其亲和系数作为量化衡量关联任务相似程度的依据.然后,根据多源判定条件确定是否采用多源集成迁移,并将相似度归一化后依次分配给待迁移源决策树作为迁移权值.最后,对源决策树进行集成迁移以辅助目标任务实现决策.基于UCI机器学习库的仿真结果说明,与多源迁移加权求和算法(Weighted sum rule,WSR)和MS-TrAdaBoost相比,STDT能够在保证决策精度的前提下实现更为快速的迁移.
van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Arjan Wardekker, J.
In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature under different national climate scenarios for a small region in the east of the Netherlands named Baakse Beek. The chain of models sequentially linked in that pilot includes a (future) weather generator and models of respectively subsurface hydrogeology, ground water stocks and flows, soil chemistry, vegetation development, crop yield and nature quality. These models typically have mismatching time step sizes and grid cell sizes. The linking of these models unavoidably involves the making of model assumptions that can hardly be validated, such as those needed to bridge the mismatches in spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and apply a method for the systematic critical appraisal of model assumptions that seeks to identify and characterize the weakest assumptions in a model chain. The critical appraisal of assumptions presented in this paper has been carried out ex-post. For the case of the climate impact model chain for Baakse Beek, the three most problematic assumptions were found to be: land use and land management kept constant over time; model linking of (daily) ground water model output to the (yearly) vegetation model around the root zone; and aggregation of daily output of the soil hydrology model into yearly input of a so called ‘mineralization reduction factor’ (calculated from annual average soil pH and daily soil hydrology) in the soil chemistry model. Overall, the method for critical appraisal of model assumptions presented and tested in this paper yields a rich qualitative insight in model uncertainty and model quality. It promotes reflectivity and learning in the modelling community, and leads to
随着社会上各类群决策问题的不断发展,例如上市公司董事会决策、政府宏观规划与战略决策以及网络招投标决策等,所有的这些群决策问题都呈现了一些新特点,传统的群决策理论已逐渐显得无能为力,需要发展新的群决策理论体系。最近兴起的复杂性科学理论为研究此类群决策问题提供了一种新的研究视角。鉴于上述研究背景,本文首先运用复杂适应系统理论分析复杂群决策系统的适应性特性,其次对复杂群决策系统的决策机理进行深入剖析,最后对复杂群决策系统的管理与控制问题进行探讨。%With the development of various types of group decision-making in society, such as the board decision-making of listed companies, the government＇ s macroeconomic planning and strategic deci- sion-making and network bidding, all of these group decision-making problems have shown some new fea- tures, the traditional theories of group decision-making have gradually become powerless. The recent theo- ries complexity provides a new perspective for group decision-making. Given the above background, this paper analyses the adaptive behavior using the complex adaptive system, studies the complex group deci- sion- making system and investigates the management and control issues about the complex group deci- sion-making system.
Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter
Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses.
Traditional particle swarm optimization can determine the quality of the particle by adaptive value. As an intelli-gent agent,each particle has the ability of decision-making,but it is not reflected in the PSO. Therefore,change rate of adap-tive value,a new judgement standard for particle evaluation is proposed. The particles position and corresponding information of the adaptive value are adopted to decide individual optimal position in history and cognitive coefficient in the PSO with the help of individual decision-making method and change rate of adaptive value. Several commonly-used test functions were used in the simulation experiments. The results shows that the algorithm has a better performance than other improved PSOs.%传统的粒子群算法通过粒子的适应值大小来判断粒子好坏，作为智能体，粒子本身有决策能力，而这在粒子群算法中并没有体现出来。因此提出了一种新的粒子好坏的判断标准--适应值变化率。通过个体决策的方法和适应值变化率，利用粒子位置与对应的适应值信息对粒子群算法中的个体历史最优位置和认知系数进行决策。采用几个常用的测试函数进行仿真实验，与其他改进的粒子群算法相比，结果表明该算法具有更好的性能。
Seyed Vahab Shojaedini
Full Text Available Introduction In recent years methods based on radio frequency waves have been used for detecting breast cancer. Using theses waves leads to better results in early detection of breast cancer comparing with conventional mammography which has been used during several years. Materials and Methods In this paper, a new method is introduced for detection of backscattered signals which are received by microwave breast radar. In this method, a decision function is constructed based on noise and signal cross-entropy, using hypothesis testing concept. Then noise and signal are separated using the calculated value for the decision function in each time frame. To estimate value of the decision function, discrete wavelet transform and discrete S transform are used. Results Performance of the proposed method was evaluated in two different scenarios, in which the breast was considered homogenous and heterogeneous, respectively. The obtained results showed that the proposed method detected breast backscattered signals 55% and 49% better than existing methods in two above scenarios. Conclusion Performance of S transform was 21% better than discrete wavelet transform in detection of weak backscattered signals. So it can be concluded that hypothesis testing method which uses S coefficients of received wave for construction of its decision function may be a suitable choice for detection of backscattered signals in breast radar.
Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul
Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence......, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental...... developments and feeding that information into strategic decisions will enable higher quality outcomes and better adaptive responses for persistent performance. Thus we review relevant parts of the strategic decision making literature to conceptualize the responsive decision making model and propose a study...
Bordetsky, Alex; Friman, Henrik
12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (ICCRTS), June 19-21, 2007 at the Naval War College, Newport, RI. The paper addresses experimental studies of decision support models for collaboration in tactical network-centric operations. This project, supported by partners from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), US Special Operations Command (SOCOM), Swedish Armed Forces, Austria, and Singapore. Naval Postgraduate Schools (NPS) Tactical Ne...
Development of a decision support system for the adaptation to climate change using water management as an example; Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsunterstuetzungssystems zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel am Beispiel der Wasserwirtschaft
Water management adaption strategies due to climate change are a very prevailing topic which is often discussed in the media. In the work at hand, the author has treated this subject within the research project of the Federal Ministry of Environment (BMU), Nature Protection and Reactor Safety - coached by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) - and has developed a new decision support system (DSS), named ''WASKlim-EUS''. With the aid of this new system possible future situations of selected water uses - for certain drainage areas - can be demonstrated, taking into account climate change. On the basis of different adaption measures and their evaluation by stakeholders a defined adaption strategy can be implemented. The DSS is based on the methods of fuzzy-logic, the analytic hierarchical process and the utility analysis. Therefore the basis of the climate change and the meterorological and hydrological effects on the water management in Germany in general and on different water uses in particular were explained. Hence the exigency to develop a adaption strategy clearly emerges. The concept of the newly developed WASKlim-EUS - which in a four step configuration ranges from the identification of parameters, the evaluation of current states and measures to the election of the adaption strategy with the according program of measures - was described and the used methods wer explained in detail. By means of three mesoscale study areas the new DSS was put into practice. For the purpose user conferences and stakeholder interviews were carried out and evaluated. For the Wupper catchment need of action was indicated for the sectors of water power plants, cooling water output and input and fishery. For the catchment area of the Salza all considered water uses were identified as vulnerable. For the catchment area of the Upper Iller, need of action was detected for the water situation in general, the fishery and the effluent from sewage treatment plants
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,
Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.
Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting . Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention . The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location . This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% . SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 , are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started
To study the status of career decision making self - efficacy of college graduates and its relation- ship with social adaptation, 108 college graduates from Northwest Normal University were surveyed by Career Decision Scale for College Students and Students of Social Adaptability Scale. The results showed that: College graduates reported lower levels of decision - making performance ; College graduates who showed different levels of social adaptation also showed different levels of career decision - making performance ; Career decision making child on of College Graduates had no sex difference, but had great differences between only child and non - only the problem -solving dimension.%以108名师范毕业生为研究对象，运用问卷调查法探讨了师范毕业生职业决策自我效能感及其与社会适应性之间的关系。结果发现，师范毕业生的职业决策自我效能感水平不高且不存在性别差异；独生子女和非独生子女的职业决策自我效能感在问题解决维度存在差异；职业决策自我效能感的职业信息维度对师范毕业生的社会适应性有预测作用。
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making
Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.
for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.
Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen
Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms.
Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...
Lauesen, Linne Marie
Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...
Hu, Y. [Mayo Clinic Arizona (United States)
MRI-guided treatment is a growing area of medicine, particularly in radiotherapy and surgery. The exquisite soft tissue anatomic contrast offered by MRI, along with functional imaging, makes the use of MRI during therapeutic procedures very attractive. Challenging the utility of MRI in the therapy room are many issues including the physics of MRI and the impact on the environment and therapeutic instruments, the impact of the room and instruments on the MRI; safety, space, design and cost. In this session, the applications and challenges of MRI-guided treatment will be described. The session format is: Past, present and future: MRI-guided radiotherapy from 2005 to 2025: Jan Lagendijk Battling Maxwell’s equations: Physics challenges and solutions for hybrid MRI systems: Paul Keall I want it now!: Advances in MRI acquisition, reconstruction and the use of priors to enable fast anatomic and physiologic imaging to inform guidance and adaptation decisions: Yanle Hu MR in the OR: The growth and applications of MRI for interventional radiology and surgery: Rebecca Fahrig Learning Objectives: To understand the history and trajectory of MRI-guided radiotherapy To understand the challenges of integrating MR imaging systems with linear accelerators To understand the latest in fast MRI methods to enable the visualisation of anatomy and physiology on radiotherapy treatment timescales To understand the growing role and challenges of MRI for image-guided surgical procedures My disclosures are publicly available and updated at: http://sydney.edu.au/medicine/radiation-physics/about-us/disclosures.php.
Laboratory Defense Intelligence College Michoud Station Washington, D.C. 20374 Box 29407 New Orleans, LA 70189 CDR C. Hutchins Code 55 Dr. Arthur Bachrach...Douglas Jensen Washington, D.C. 20363-5100 Carnegie-Mellon University Computer Science Dept. Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Dr. David L. Kleinman Electrical
刘翔; 侯志强; 余旺盛; 黄安奇
This paper researched the problem that the traditional Mean-Shift algorithm could not track a size-changing object effectively,and proposed a new algorithm based on assistant decision-making of object similarity metric,to estimate the scale and orientation of a tracking window with adaptive bandwidth.Firstly,it adopted the saliency of object and background to im-prove tracking accuracy for orientation,and then employed the local exhaustive search to compute the similarity metric between object model and the certain region where was around the tracking center in each frame.Finally,it determined the object scale variation by similar pixel amounts.What’s more,it defined a novel bandwidth criterion for improving adaptability in tracking bandwidth.The experimental results prove that the present method can improve the tracking accuracy effectively in orientation between space and scale.%针对传统窗宽固定不变的Mean-Shift跟踪算法不能实时地适应目标尺寸大小变化这一问题，提出了一种基于目标相似度辅助决策的带宽自适应跟踪算法。首先利用目标与背景的特征显著性，提高跟踪算法空间定位准确性；然后利用局部穷搜索的方法，计算目标模型与每一帧目标跟踪中心点附近一定区域的相似性；最后通过统计分析前后帧相似像素点数目变化，确定目标尺度变化情况，从而建立一种自适应更新带宽准则，提高算法对目标尺度变化的自适应性。实验结果表明，改进的算法可以有效地提高Mean-Shift跟踪算法空间和尺度定位准确性。
Volchik Vyacheslav, V.
Full Text Available The economic literature focused on understanding decision-making and choice processes reveals a vast collection of approaches to human rationality. Theorists’ attention has moved from absolutely rational, utility-maximizing individuals to boundedly rational and adaptive ones. A number of economists have criticized the concepts of adaptive rationality and adaptive behavior. One of the recent trends in the economic literature is to consider humans irrational. This paper offers an approach which examines adaptive behavior in the context of existing institutions and constantly changing institutional environment. It is assumed that adaptive behavior is a process of evolutionary adjustment to fundamental uncertainty. We emphasize the importance of actors’ engagement in trial and error learning, since if they are involved in this process, they obtain experience and are able to adapt to existing and new institutions. The paper aims at identifying relevant institutions, adaptive mechanisms, informal working rules and practices that influence actors’ behavior in the field of Higher Education in Russia (Rostov Region education services market has been taken as an example. The paper emphasizes the application of qualitative interpretative methods (interviews and discourse analysis in examining actors’ behavior.
de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique
If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...
Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... as a controlled cost for achieving organizational goals. Decisions must fail so the organization can succeed. This chapter uses two cases to elaborate on these ideas. By way of introduction, I will reflect on the notion of ‘failing decisions’ within organization and decision theory. This chapter is also propelled...
Full Text Available We elaborate on the shifting of decision support systems towards social networking, which is based on the concepts of Web 2.0 and Semantic Web technology. As the characteristics of the relevant components are different from traditional decision support systems, we present necessary adaptations when adopting social networks for decision support within an organization. We also present organizational obstacles when adopting/using such systems and clues to overcome them.
Naruse, Makoto; Drezet, Aurelien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju
Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.
In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…
Anellis, Irving H
The historiography of logic conceives of a Fregean revolution in which modern mathematical logic (also called symbolic logic) has replaced Aristotelian logic. The preeminent expositors of this conception are Jean van Heijenoort (1912-1986) and Donald Angus Gillies. The innovations and characteristics that comprise mathematical logic and distinguish it from Aristotelian logic, according to this conception, created ex nihlo by Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) in his Begriffsschrift of 1879, and with Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) as its chief This position likewise understands the algebraic logic of Augustus De Morgan (1806-1871), George Boole (1815-1864), Charles Sanders Peirce (1838-1914), and Ernst Schr\\"oder (1841-1902) as belonging to the Aristotelian tradition. The "Booleans" are understood, from this vantage point, to merely have rewritten Aristotelian syllogistic in algebraic guise. The most detailed listing and elaboration of Frege's innovations, and the characteristics that distinguish mathematical logic from ...
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.
Distribution of the Volume of Communications by Vote 157 4 5 Volume of Comunications by Issue Characteristics 159 4.6 Congressional Communications by Vote...legislative behavior have recently begun to adapt the .. "bounded rationality" approach to decision-making in order to learn how Congressmen cope’with...on for learning the facts of i. bill. Determinants are those actors that a member relies on as a decision aid or shortcut. Role is the member’s’general
Honig, P K; Hirsch, G
Adaptive Biomedical Innovation (ABI) is a multistakeholder approach to product and process innovation aimed at accelerating the delivery of clinical value to patients and society. ABI offers the opportunity to transcend the fragmentation and linearity of decision-making in our current model and create a common collaborative framework that optimizes the benefit and access of new medicines for patients as well as creating a more sustainable innovation ecosystem.
. An in-depth empirical investigation demonstrates that such human choice has the character of intuition and judgment. The choice of the winner preceded the process by which the winning design proposal was established as being better than the other proposals. We discuss the role of intuitive choices...... in architectural competitions and claim that they reflect necessity more than vice. They are ways around the fundamental incommensurability of the alternative design proposals. The garbage can model is used as a framework for making sense of the observed counterintuitive ways of decision making. Its attempt...
Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement
Christensen, Tove; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Dubgaard, Alex;
Organic food production is a sphere where decision making is multi-facetted and complex. This applies to producers, political decision makers and consumers alike. This paper provides an overview of the economic methods that can aid such multi criteria decision making. We first provide an outline...... studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming....
Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao
Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....
Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))
the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action
The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.
Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.
Almaliki, Malik Rajab
Self-adaptive software systems are characterised by their ability to monitor changes in their dynamic environment and react to these changes when needed. Adaptation is driven by these changes in the internal state of the system and its external environment. Social Adaptation is a kind of adaptation which gives users’ feedback a primary role in shaping adaptation decisions. Social Adaptation infers and employs users’ collective judgement on the alternative behaviours of a system as the main dr...
Vos, H. J.
Formulates decision rules for adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to learning needs in intelligent-tutoring systems. Highlights include minimax decision theory (a minimum information approach), a binomial model, and a comparison of the Bayesian decision component in the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System and the minimax strategy.…
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Management recommendations are a product of the decision support tool for the Native Adaptive Management Program (NPAM). The provides tall and mixed grass management...
Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper
Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial lighting ceases...
Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit
This book presents new algorithms for reinforcement learning, a form of machine learning in which an autonomous agent seeks a control policy for a sequential decision task. Since current methods typically rely on manually designed solution representations, agents that automatically adapt their own r
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) Project Lead: Scott Poll Subject Fault diagnosis in electrical power systems Description The Advanced...
Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.
Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst
People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...
Full Text Available The article presents the results of empirical studies of the occupational stress and adaptation. The study shows that the process of adaptation to stress affect the socio-psychological characteristics. Constructive ways of behavior are: the choice of cooperation, a strong desire to be with people, taking responsibility and decision-making.
Bergstra, J A
A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for instance: plan, command, assertion, or boolean reply to a question. A decision effect is any consequence of putting a decision outcome into effect. Decision outcomes must be expected by the decider to lead to certain decision effects, by way of their being put into effect. The availability of a model or of a theory of the causal chain leading from a decision outcome to one or more decision effects is assumed for the decision taker, otherwise the decision outcome is merely an utterance. Decision effectiveness measures the decision effects against objectives meant to be served with the decision. Decision taking is positioned amidst many similar notions including: decision making, decision process, decision making proce...
Shin, Yong-Jun; Mahrou, Bahareh
In the presence of unpredictable disturbances and uncertainties, cells intelligently achieve their goals by sharing information via cell-cell communication and making collective decisions, which are more reliable compared to individual decisions. Inspired by adaptive sensor network algorithms studied in communication engineering, we propose that a multi-cellular adaptive network can convert unreliable decisions by individual cells into a more reliable cell-population decision. It is demonstrated using the effector T helper (a type of immune cell) population, which plays a critical role in initiating immune reactions in response to invading foreign agents (e.g., viruses, bacteria, etc.). While each individual cell follows a simple adaptation rule, it is the combined coordination among multiple cells that leads to the manifestation of "self-organizing" decision making via cell-cell communication.
Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.
This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level, par
Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia
Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top management...
Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter
To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....
Kerr, Norbert L; Tindale, R Scott
Theory and research on small group performance and decision making is reviewed. Recent trends in group performance research have found that process gains as well as losses are possible, and both are frequently explained by situational and procedural contexts that differentially affect motivation and resource coordination. Research has continued on classic topics (e.g., brainstorming, group goal setting, stress, and group performance) and relatively new areas (e.g., collective induction). Group decision making research has focused on preference combination for continuous response distributions and group information processing. New approaches (e.g., group-level signal detection) and traditional topics (e.g., groupthink) are discussed. New directions, such as nonlinear dynamic systems, evolutionary adaptation, and technological advances, should keep small group research vigorous well into the future.
Exceptional Parent, 1987
Suggestions are presented for helping disabled individuals learn to use or adapt toothbrushes for proper dental care. A directory lists dental health instructional materials available from various organizations. (CB)
Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob
We investigate why some exchange relationships terminate prematurely. We argue that investments in informal governance structures induce premature termination in relationships already governed by formal contracts. The formalized adaptive behavior of formal governance structures and the flexible a...
People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to d...
Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose;
ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow......This paper contributes to the growing body of empirical work on how SME decision-makers decide to internationalize in two ways: first, it responds to recent calls for incorporating strategic decision-making literature into understanding SME internationalization decisions. Second, it provides...... a better understanding of under what circumstances, SME decision-makers tend to follow a more rational approach toward internationalization decisions. Specifically, this paper examines a set of contextual variables (the level of perceived international risk, internationalization performance, planned versus...
Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah
Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…
Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz
Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning. The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition
Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui
Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.
Burleson, Brant R.; And Others
Strongly confirmed the hypothesis that groups employing an interacting decision procedure would produce better decisions than groups employing procedures that are either nominal (Delphi) or "staticized" (individual judgments statistically pooled). Provides clear and consistent support for the value of social interaction in small group decision…
Skitka, Linda J.
This study clarified that automation bias is something unique to automated decision making contexts, and is not the result of a general tendency toward complacency. By comparing performance on exactly the same events on the same tasks with and without an automated decision aid, we were able to determine that at least the omission error part of automation bias is due to the unique context created by having an automated decision aid, and is not a phenomena that would occur even if people were not in an automated context. However, this study also revealed that having an automated decision aid did lead to modestly improved performance across all non-error events. Participants in the non- automated condition responded with 83.68% accuracy, whereas participants in the automated condition responded with 88.67% accuracy, across all events. Automated decision aids clearly led to better overall performance when they were accurate. People performed almost exactly at the level of reliability as the automation (which across events was 88% reliable). However, also clear, is that the presence of less than 100% accurate automated decision aids creates a context in which new kinds of errors in decision making can occur. Participants in the non-automated condition responded with 97% accuracy on the six "error" events, whereas participants in the automated condition had only a 65% accuracy rate when confronted with those same six events. In short, the presence of an AMA can lead to vigilance decrements that can lead to errors in decision making.
GUO Qiang; XU Xiang-hua; WANG Ying-long
In order to improve the accuracy of vertical handoff decision for radio heterogeneous network, this paper proposes an intelligent adaptive multi-criteria vertical handoff (AMVHO) decision algorithm. This algo-rithm uses a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and a modified Elman neural network (MENN). The FIS adopts the crucial criteria of vertical handoff as input variables and makes handoff decision based on the defined rule base. The MENN helps to predict the number of users of the after-bandoff network, which is a pivotal variable of the FIS. Simulation results show that, compared with the conventional method, the AMVHO decision algorithm a-chieves better performance in guaranteeing the quality of service (QoS) of the after-handoff communication.
Kjeldsen, Lars Peter; Rose, Mette
Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale.......Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale....
A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for in
Kuada, John Ernest
The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...
Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian;
This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...
Goosen, H.; Janssen, R.H.H.; Vermaat, J.E.
Decision support systems can be helpful tools in wetland planning and management. Decision support systems can contribute to efficient exchange of information between experts, stakeholders, decision makers and laypeople. However, the achievements of decision support systems are repeatedly being repo
Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky
Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis
Full Text Available People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to dead bodies as disgust elicitors, by measuring specific types of disgust sensitivity in medical students before and after they have spent a few months dissecting a cadaver. Using the Disgust Scale, we find a significant reduction in disgust responses to death and body envelope violation elicitors, but no significant change in any other specific type of disgust. There is a clear reduction in discomfort at touching a cold dead body, but not in touching a human body which is still warm after death.
Efforts to help the world's poor will face crises in coming decades as climate change radically alters conditions. Action Research for Community Adapation in Bangladesh (ARCAB) is an action-research programme on responding to climate change impacts through community-based adaptation. Set in Bangladesh at 20 sites that are vulnerable to floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise, ARCAB will follow impacts and adaptation as they evolve over half a century or more. National and international 'research partners', collaborating with ten NGO 'action partners' with global reach, seek knowledge and solutions applicable worldwide. After a year setting up ARCAB, we share lessons on the programme's design and move into our first research cycle.
Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed
Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.
Based on the emotion adaptation theory and the model of helping behavior, this study proposes a model of do-nation decision making process and tests it by a nation-wide sample of 1853 people. The results reveal that donation de-cision making process is a dynamic mechanism in which perceived organization image and advertising appeals appraisals produce emotional responses among the potential donors, emotions subsequently affect donation intention, however, via the mediating role of donation motivation. Besides, previous donation experience is found to mediatedly moderate the de-cision process by an interation effect with emotions on motivation. Namely, when the potential donor has more previous donation experiences, the effect of emotions on motivation and intension attenuates, visa versa. Theoretial and manageri-al contributions are addressed.%基于帮助决策模型和情感适应理论，本研究建立了我国个人捐赠者的捐赠决策模型，并通过发放全国性问卷进行数据搜集，验证了刺激→情感→动机→意向这一动态心理机制。研究结果显示我国个人捐赠行为是一个动态的心理决策过程，其中由公益组织传递的组织形象和广告诉求经过了潜在捐赠人的评价而产生了不同的情感状态，该情感状态诱发利己动机或者利他动机继而影响其捐赠意愿。此外，个人捐赠经历与情感状态交互作用于动机并对捐赠意愿产生影响，即在个人捐赠经历多的情况下，由感知组织形象和广告诉求评价所引发的情感对于捐赠意愿的影响较小；而个人捐赠经历少的情况下，该情感对捐赠意愿的影响较大。
Bertrand, Nathalie; Bouyer, Patricia; Brihaye, Thomas; Carlier, Pierre,
International audience; In 2007, Abdulla et al. introduced the elegant concept of decisive Markov chain. Intuitively, de-cisiveness allows one to lift the good properties of finite Markov chains to infinite Markov chains. For instance, the approximate quantitative reachability problem can be solved for decisive Markov chains (enjoying reasonable effectiveness assumptions) including probabilistic lossy channel systems and probabilistic vector addition systems with states. In this paper, we ext...
Jain, Lakhmi C
The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c
Power, Daniel J
This book is targeted to busy managers and MBA students who need to grasp the basics of computerized decision support. Some of the topics covered include: What is a DSS? What do managers need to know about computerized decision support? And how can managers identify opportunities to create innovative DSS? Overall the book addresses 35 fundamental questions that are relevant to understanding computerized decision support.
Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul
Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication
Full Text Available The article presents the results of a study of psychological factors of decision making amongforensic psychiatric specialists. Given the survey data of10 medical psychologists and 10 psychiatrists carrying out compulsory treatment in the psychiatric hospital №5, Moscow Department of Public Health, in comparison with the control group, consisting of professionals working in the field of education, manufacturing, services and technology. Methodical complex included: 1. The Epstein questionnaire of the intuitive style (adaptation Kornilova T. V., Kornilov S. A.; A new questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty (Kornilova T. V.; Melbourne questionnaire of decision making (adaptation T. V.Kornilova; The questionnaire «Personal factors of decision making»(T.V. Kornilova; TheV. Smecalo and V. M. Kucher method; The Tsvetkova Method; 7. The questionnaire «Styles of thinking» by R. Bramsonand Harrison (adaptation of A. A. Alekseev; 8.The questionnaire «Scale of base convictions» (R.Yanov-Boulemane, adaptation M.A. Padun, A.V. Kotelnikov; 9. The check-list aimed to identify the type of decisions taken by the expert in professional activity, their frequency, importance, subjective evaluation is necessary for decision making qualities and to evaluate the most significant opinions of other persons in the decision-making process. There were defined the characteristics of decision making depending on gender. The relationships between type of activity and frequency of occurrence of different types of decisions in professional activities of specialists were revealed. Analyzed the relationship between consideration of the views of others when making decisions and activity.
The Internet and Social Media change our way of decision-making. We are no longer the independent decision makers we used to be. Instead, we have become networked minds, social decision-makers, more than ever before. This has several fundamental implications. First of all, our economic theories must change, and second, our economic institutions must be adapted to support the social decision-maker, the "homo socialis", rather than tailored to the perfect egoist, known as "homo economicus".
The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.
Ierland, van E.C.; Weikard, H.P.; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Ansink, E.J.H.; Bruin, de K.; Rietveld, P.; Bockarjova, M.; Hofkes, M.; Brouwer, R.; Dekker, T.
The focus of this programme was on the development of decision making tools based on cost benefit analysis under uncertainty, for analysing adaptation and mitigation options related to spatial planning in the Netherlands. The full programme focused on the methodological issues for cost benefit analy
Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Botzen, Wouter; Werners, Saskia E.
This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in MPT
Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan
is the application of on-line games in order to provide training for decision makers and in order to generate overview over the implications of platform decisions. However, games have to be placed in a context with other methods and we argue that a mixture of games, workshops, and simulations can provide improved...
Bright, Franklyn F.
Libraries are frequently faced with policy decisions which can affect the quality and cost of library services for years to come. This point can be illustrated by citing examples of decisions made at the University of Wisconsin Library in the areas of: (1) conforming to national cataloging standards; (2) producing catalog cards in-house; and (3)…
Freixas Bosch, Josep; Pons Vallès, Montserrat
In this note we prove that any decisiveness index, defined for any voter as the probability of him/her being decisive, is a semiindex when the probability distribution over coalitions is anonymous, and it is a semiindex with binomial coefficients when the probability over coalitions is anonymous and independent. Peer Reviewed
Wolfe, A. E.
This paper discusses the financial crisis facing public education in the United States today and argues that the most effective response to this crisis is to improve the decision-making skills of educational administrators. Based on a review of the literature on administrative decision-making and organizational change, the author examines several…
Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; ...
Jonassen, David H.
Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…
Meer, van Floor; Charbonnier, Lisette; Smeets, Paul A.M.
Food decisions determine energy intake. Since overconsumption is the main driver of obesity, the effects of weight status on food decision-making are of increasing interest. An additional factor of interest is age, given the rise in childhood obesity, weight gain with aging, and the increased cha
Moeller, Jesper; Lichtenberg, Jacob; Andersen, Henrik Reif;
This paper describes a new data structure, difference decision diagrams (DDDs), for representing a Boolean logic over inequalities of the form $x-y......This paper describes a new data structure, difference decision diagrams (DDDs), for representing a Boolean logic over inequalities of the form $x-y...
Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.
This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…
Rist, Lucy; Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Frost, Peter
in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how...... the concept might be further assessed. AM is currently being used to describe many different management contexts, scales and locations. Few authors define the term explicitly or describe how it offers a means to improve management outcomes in their specific management context. Many do not adhere to the idea......Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used...
Yukalov, V I
This chapter, dedicated to the memory of Mino Freund, summarizes the Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) that we have developed in a series of publications since 2008. We formulate a general mathematical scheme of how decisions are taken, using the point of view of psychological and cognitive sciences, without touching physiological aspects. The basic principles of how intelligence acts are discussed. The human brain processes involved in decisions are argued to be principally different from straightforward computer operations. The difference lies in the conscious-subconscious duality of the decision making process and the role of emotions that compete with utility optimization. The most general approach for characterizing the process of decision making, taking into account the conscious-subconscious duality, uses the framework of functional analysis in Hilbert spaces, similarly to that used in the quantum theory of measurements. This does not imply that the brain is a quantum system, but just allows for the simple...
Human and animal decisions are modulated by a variety of environmental and intrinsic contexts. Here I consider computational factors that can affect decision making and review anatomical structures and neurochemical systems that are related to contextual modulation of decision making. Expectation of a high reward can motivate a subject to go for an action despite a large cost, a decision that is influenced by dopamine in the anterior cingulate cortex. Uncertainty of action outcomes can promote risk taking and exploratory choices, in which norepinephrine and the orbitofrontal cortex appear to be involved. Predictable environments should facilitate consideration of longer-delayed rewards, which depends on serotonin in the dorsal striatum and dorsal prefrontal cortex. This article aims to sort out factors that affect the process of decision making from the viewpoint of reinforcement learning theory and to bridge between such computational needs and their neurophysiological substrates.
Petru Lucian Curşeu
Full Text Available Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group, and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.
The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of
Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G. [Programa de Graduados e Investigacion en Ingenieria Electrica. Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Instituto Tecnologico de Morelia. Av. Tecnologico 1500, Col. Lomas de Santiaguito 58120. Morelia, Mich. (Mexico); Sheble, Gerald B. [INESC Porto, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto (Portugal)
This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)
Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon
Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.
Thompson, David R.
Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.
Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O
For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.
Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.
Since the middle of the 19th century urban drainage has been a vital infrastructure in cities. Traditionally, urban drainage has been used as a convenient cleaning mechanism for public hygiene and an efficient conveyance facility to tackle floods for life and assets protection. From the early 20th...
Giodini, S.; Hunter, A.J.; Naus, H.W.L.; Bakker, B.; Bekers, D.J.; Ditzel, M.; Vossen, R. van; Dugelay, S.; Baralli, F.; Beckers, A.L.D.
Minehunting operations can benefit from the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) because these vehicles are able to acquire high-resolution images of the seabed leaving the man out of the minefield. However, because there are severe communication constraints between the AUV and the control p
Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia
The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…
Mykkänen, Markus; Tampere, Kaja
Studies of organizational communication around decision-making and decision communication have largely concerned how decisions should be made and promoted. Less efforts have focused on how decisions should be communicated inside organizations and how they influence organizational effectiveness and performance. This study examined decision communication in an engineer-based organization 2008–2009. Key findings demonstrate that effective decision communication can be considered as the backbone ...
Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S
A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.
Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.
Lovett, Neil B; Crosnier, Cécile; Perarnau-Llobet, Martí; Sanders, Barry C
We devise powerful algorithms based on differential evolution for adaptive many-particle quantum metrology. Our new approach delivers adaptive quantum metrology policies for feedback control that are orders-of-magnitude more efficient and surpass the few-dozen-particle limitation arising in methods based on particle-swarm optimization. We apply our method to the binary-decision-tree model for quantum-enhanced phase estimation as well as to a new problem: a decision tree for adaptive estimation of the unknown bias of a quantum coin in a quantum walk and show how this latter case can be realized experimentally.
A new adaptive formation control method is developed for a large number of spacecraft or robots moving on adaptive network topologies . The...adversarial nodes are able not only to impede convergence toward consensus, but can also affect global changes in the topology of the communication...Perform Global Linear Computations. IEEE Conference and Decision and Control, 2015. Submitted. 12. H. Park , S. Hutchinson, "A Distributed Optimal Strategy
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions issued by the Chair and Board Members of the Departmental Appeals Board concerning determinations in discretionary, project grant programs, including...
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Decisions of the Departmental Appeals Board's Medicare Appeals Council involving claims for entitlement to Medicare and individual claims for Medicare coverage and...
This paper sets out to solve the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. Given certain simple assumptions, it turns out to be possible to do so without knowing the underlying anthropic probabilities. Most common anthropic problems are underspecified from the decision perspective, and this can explain some of the differing intuitions in the subject: selfless and selfish agents, total and average utilitarians, will all reach different decisions in the same problem. These results are formalised into an anthropic decision theory, that is them used to solve many anthropic problems and paradoxes, such as the Presumptuous Philosopher, Adam and Eve, and Doomsday problems.
Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel;
The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between...... risk and utility that economists traditionally assume, allowance for rank-dependent decision weights, and consideration of income thresholds. We examine the issues involved in full maximum likelihood estimation of the model using observed choice data. We propose a general method for integrating...... the multiple criteria, using the logic of mixture models, which we believe is attractive from a decision-theoretic and statistical perspective. The model is applied to observed choices from a major natural experiment involving intrinsically dynamic choices over highly skewed outcomes. The evidence points...
Wesolkowski, Slawomir; Whitacre, James M; Bender, Axel; Abbass, Hussein
Making decisions about the structure of a future military fleet is a challenging task. Several issues need to be considered such as the existence of multiple competing objectives and the complexity of the operating environment. A particular challenge is posed by the various types of uncertainty that the future might hold. It is uncertain what future events might be encountered; how fleet design decisions will influence and shape the future; and how present and future decision makers will act based on available information, their personal biases regarding the importance of different objectives, and their economic preferences. In order to assist strategic decision-making, an analysis of future fleet options needs to account for conditions in which these different classes of uncertainty are exposed. It is important to understand what assumptions a particular fleet is robust to, what the fleet can readily adapt to, and what conditions present clear risks to the fleet. We call this the analysis of a fleet's strate...
Metzner, John R
ACM Monograph Series: Decision Table Languages and Systems focuses on linguistic examination of decision tables and survey of the features of existing decision table languages and systems. The book first offers information on semiotics, programming language features, and generalization. Discussions focus on semantic broadening, outer language enrichments, generalization of syntax, limitations, implementation improvements, syntactic and semantic features, decision table syntax, semantics of decision table languages, and decision table programming languages. The text then elaborates on design im
Attenburrow, Derek H
This was a published paper presented at the International Conference on Engineering and Product Design Education on the 6th and 7th of September 2012 at the Artisis University College, Antwerp, Belgium. The Design Decision Trail is a student produced, visual narrative of a design project. It includes the signposting of key design decision points within the edited from the project. It is used to share information with student peers, tutors and potential employers. It is now being used in both ...
Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep
from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....
Saskia Elisabeth. Werners
Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.
Abdulla, Parosh Aziz; Mayr, Richard
We consider qualitative and quantitative verification problems for infinite-state Markov chains. We call a Markov chain decisive w.r.t. a given set of target states F if it almost certainly eventually reaches either F or a state from which F can no longer be reached. While all finite Markov chains are trivially decisive (for every set F), this also holds for many classes of infinite Markov chains. Infinite Markov chains which contain a finite attractor are decisive w.r.t. every set F. In particular, this holds for probabilistic lossy channel systems (PLCS). Furthermore, all globally coarse Markov chains are decisive. This class includes probabilistic vector addition systems (PVASS) and probabilistic noisy Turing machines (PNTM). We consider both safety and liveness problems for decisive Markov chains, i.e., the probabilities that a given set of states F is eventually reached or reached infinitely often, respectively. 1. We express the qualitative problems in abstract terms for decisive Markov chains, and show...
In this paper we present a new algorithm for learning oblique decision trees. Most of the current decision tree algorithms rely on impurity measures to assess the goodness of hyperplanes at each node while learning a decision tree in a top-down fashion. These impurity measures do not properly capture the geometric structures in the data. Motivated by this, our algorithm uses a strategy to assess the hyperplanes in such a way that the geometric structure in the data is taken into account. At each node of the decision tree, we find the clustering hyperplanes for both the classes and use their angle bisectors as the split rule at that node. We show through empirical studies that this idea leads to small decision trees and better performance. We also present some analysis to show that the angle bisectors of clustering hyperplanes that we use as the split rules at each node, are solutions of an interesting optimization problem and hence argue that this is a principled method of learning a decision tree.
Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua
The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.
Brondum, Matthew C; Collier, Zachary A; Luke, Christopher S; Goatcher, Buddy L; Linkov, Igor
Wild pigs are a widespread invasive species that pose significant environmental and social risks. A number of wild pig eradication and control measures exist, but many eradication campaigns are ultimately unsuccessful. Decision making regarding how to design and execute an eradication plan is difficult because of multiple costs and benefits spanning various decision criteria that are associated with different eradication and control countermeasures. Moreover, multiple stakeholders are often involved with differing and sometimes competing objectives, and wild pigs are adaptive adversaries, meaning that the ideal countermeasure may change over time. In this paper, we propose the use of formal decision analytic tools which can structure decision problems into a set of relevant criteria, countermeasures, and stakeholder preferences to facilitate the evaluation of tradeoffs. We operationalize this method in a simple Excel-based decision tool and conclude with a path forward regarding how to successfully implement such tools for effective wild pig control.
... AGENCY An Assessment of Decision-Making Processes: Evaluation of Where Land Protection Planning Can... Decision-Making Processes: Evaluation of Where Land Protection Planning can Incorporate Climate Change... decision making. As part of a portfolio of adaptation strategies, land protection may become more...
Pais, Darren; Hogan, Patrick M; Schlegel, Thomas; Franks, Nigel R; Leonard, Naomi E; Marshall, James A R
We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.
Full Text Available We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.
Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.
Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.
The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.
CUI Xianqiang; YANG Yuanxi
The key problems in applying the adaptively robust filtering to navigation are to establish an equivalent weight matrix for the measurements and a suitable adaptive factor for balancing the contributions of the measurements and the predicted state information to the state parameter estimates. In this paper, an adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors was proposed, based on the principles of the adaptively robust filtering and bi-factor robust estimation for correlated observations. According to the constant velocity model of Kalman filtering, the state parameter vector was divided into two groups, namely position and velocity. The estimator of the adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors was derived, and the calculation expressions of the classified adaptive factors were presented. Test results show that the adaptively robust filtering with classified adaptive factors is not only robust in controlling the measurement outliers and the kinematic state disturbing but also reasonable in balancing the contributions of the predicted position and velocity, respectively, and its filtering accuracy is superior to the adaptively robust filter with single adaptive factor based on the discrepancy of the predicted position or the predicted velocity.
Bulterman, D.C.A.; Rutledge, L.; Hardman, L.; Ossenbruggen, J.R. van
Having the content of a presentation adapt to the needs, resources and prior activities of a user can be an important benefit of electronic documents. While part of this adaptation is related to the encodings of individual data streams, much of the adaptation can/should be guided by the semantics in
Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.
When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.
Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.
Kravcik, Milos; Specht, Marcus; Naeve, Ambjorn
Kravcik, M., Specht, M., & Naeve, A. (2008). Personalized Adaptive Learning. Presentation of PROLEARN WP1 Personalized Adaptive Learning at the final review meeting. February, 27, 2008, Hannover, Germany.
Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.
When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment
This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach for this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for the use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow in this paper a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through...
Burgos, Daniel; Tattersall, Colin; Koper, Rob
Adaptation in e-learning has been an important research topic for the last few decades in computer-based education. In adaptivity the behaviour of the user triggers some actions in the system that guides the learning process. In adaptability, the user makes changes and takes decisions. Progressing from computer-based training and adaptive…
Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.
Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.
The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…
Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago
The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…
The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…
Austin, Laurel; Fischhoff, Baruch
Using interviews with 74 drivers, we elicit and analyse how people think about collision coverage and, more generally, about insurance decisions. We compare the judgments and behaviours of these decision makers to the predictions of a range of theoretical models: (a) A model developed by Lee (2007......), which refines EU theory to incorporate income and predicts that property insurance is a normal good; (b) a mental accounting model based on the idea that consumers budget their income across consumption categories (Thaler, 1985); and (c) the baseline, classic EU theory, which predicts that insurance...... is an inferior good (Mossin, 1968). The behaviour reported by subjects in our study suggests that insurance is a normal good, while their verbal reports reveal desires to balance two conflicting goals in deductible decisions, keeping premiums “affordable” and keeping deductibles “affordable,” which suggests...
Anna Miles PhD
Full Text Available Objective: Where swallowing difficulties are chronic or progressive, or a patient is palliative, tube feeding is often not deemed appropriate. Instead, patients continue to eat and drink despite the risks of pneumonia and death. There is currently little evidence to guide clinical practice in this field often termed “risk feeding.” This qualitative study investigated staff, patient, and family member perceptions of risk feeding practices in one New Zealand hospital. Method: Twenty-nine staff members and six patients and/or their family were interviewed. Results: Thematic analysis revealed four global themes: supporting practice, communication, complexity of feeding decisions, and patient and family-centered care. Staff described limited education and organizational policy around risk feeding decisions. Communication was considered a major factor in the success. Conclusion: Feeding decisions are complex in the hospital environment. The themes identified in this study provide a foundation for hospital guideline development and implementation.
Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.
The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate
Full Text Available Introduction & Background: Radiology practice like any other discipline in medicine consists of professional problem solving. A practicing radiologist may face different kinds of problems from pathology finding in im-age, suggestion of appropriate workup in a specific situation, formulating relevant differential diagnosis list for comparison with normal variants and artifacts. When a radiologist has the opportunity to use a computer he/she will also be able to use digital material/technology to solve these problems and make sound decisions. The available methods/materials for digital decision support in radiology may be categorized as follow: A. Image Processing When a radiological image is captured or converted to digital format, techniques like edge enhancement and contrast change may improve the diagnostic value of an image and help in decision making. B. Computer-aided Detection Thoracic imaging and mammography are two fields with promising advances in computer-aided diagnosis (CAD. The ultimate role of CAD is as a second opinion besides radiologists own perception. It is obvious how-ever that when available, CAD may decrease detection errors in radiology practice. C. Decision Support Databases Image Banks: An electronic atlas may be used to compare patients’ image to a predefined classified set of im-ages in order to help radiologist in pattern recognition. This may also be used for anatomic details and variants. Knowledge Bases: A digital differential diagnosis table or algorithmic approach to a specific problem may be helpful in reading room. Digital Textbooks: Classical radiological textbooks may be used in routine practice to remember some definitions, lists or hints, When available, digital version of textbooks are invaluable decision aids. D. Internet resources Online resources can be easily updated, widely used by different users, uniformly applied by different radiolo-gists. Although digital decision support materials and
Silviu Ioan Bejinariu
Full Text Available The satellite image processing is an important tool for decision making in domains like agriculture, forestry, hydrology, for normal activity tracking but also in special situations caused by natural disasters. In this paper it is proposed a method for forestry surface evaluation in terms of occupied surface and also as number of trees. The segmentation method is based on watershed transform which offers good performances in case the objects to detect have connected borders. The method is applied for automatic multi-temporal analysis of forestry areas and represents a useful instrument for decision makers.
Jaeger, Manfred; Dalgaard, Jens; Silander, Tomi
Probabilistic decision graphs (PDGs) are a representation language for probability distributions based on binary decision diagrams. PDGs can encode (context-specific) independence relations that cannot be captured in a Bayesian network structure, and can sometimes provide computationally more...... efficient representations than Bayesian networks. In this paper we present an algorithm for learning PDGs from data. First experiments show that the algorithm is capable of learning optimal PDG representations in some cases, and that the computational efficiency of PDG models learned from real-life data...
Soypak, Kalender Can
Modeling intertemporal decisions is essential to understand many financial decisions both at the household and at the company level. Most of the time, these decisions are very complicated and it is very difficult to develop a single model that can describe the intertemporal decision making process in different contexts. Still, this does not prevent many researchers from attempting to understand preferences of individuals in intertemporal decision setting, since people face intertemporal decis...
Wang, Jane X; Voss, Joel L
Exploration permits acquisition of the most relevant information during learning. However, the specific information needed, the influences of this information on decision making, and the relevant neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. We modeled distinct information types available during contextual association learning and used model-based fMRI in conjunction with manipulation of exploratory decision making to identify neural activity associated with information-based decisions. We identified hippocampal-prefrontal contributions to advantageous decisions based on immediately available novel information, distinct from striatal contributions to advantageous decisions based on the sum total available (accumulated) information. Furthermore, network-level interactions among these regions during exploratory decision making were related to learning success. These findings link strategic exploration decisions during learning to quantifiable information and advance understanding of adaptive behavior by identifying the distinct and interactive nature of brain-network contributions to decisions based on distinct information types.
Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen
This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.
Hush, Don [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Porter, Reid [Los Alamos National Laboratory
A new algorithm for constructing optimal dyadic decision trees was recently introduced, analyzed, and shown to be very effective for low dimensional data sets. This paper enhances and extends this algorithm by: introducing an adaptive grid search for the regularization parameter that guarantees optimal solutions for all relevant trees sizes, revising the core tree-building algorithm so that its run time is substantially smaller for most regularization parameter values on the grid, and incorporating new data structures and data pre-processing steps that provide significant run time enhancement in practice.
Roxana POPA STRAINU
Full Text Available A system built to support management decisions and not only needs to be accurate and well adapted to the requirements of the decision and the variables involved in it, and this happens because a decision is still a human act in any type of business and institution. We can say that a decision support system has a part in it that cannot be determined by any software: the human decision which is not a determinist act. It depends on a lot of variables but also still involves the decision maker intuition and experience. This is why an important problem emerged to be discussed in this paper: the need to implement and develop an in house solution to help management decisions and not only, using existing tools and this with no additional fees. This can be a good opportunity to discover models and solutions. An identified solution using Microsoft Excel and Access is discussed in this paper and a model applied on a case study will be presented. The results of the case study showed a real support in making decisions and a better transparency in manipulating the data, improving also the time needed to collect, transform and present data. The model can be applied in any type of problem that needs a visual presentation of data as well as in situations that need working with a large amount of data, but especially in small and medium size companies.
Perestelo-Perez, Lilisbeth; Rivero-Santana, Amado; Perez-Ramos, Jeanette; Gonzalez-Lorenzo, Marien; Roman, Javier Gracia-San; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro
In the last two decades there has been a growing recognition in the Spanish National Health System (NHS) of the importance of considering patients' values and preferences in clinical decisions. Patient participation in shared decision making (SDM) is gaining importance as a suitable approach to patient-health professional communication and decision making in Spain. In addition, the NHS is funding the development of patients' decision aids (PtDAs) for shared decision making (SDM) by Health Technology Assessment Agencies. However, the NHS has still not incorporated reforms in law that includes SDM and PtDAs as a key component of health care services and professional curricula, nor is there a standardised implementation of interventions to support decisions in routine care. Most patients are not very familiar with their rights to be kept informed and participate in their own health care decisions. Most professionals are not familiar with or educated about patients' rights to be kept informed and participate in health care decisions either. The future of SDM in Spain is promising. The next course of action should be to maintain the production and adaptation of high-quality PtDAs while at the same time reinforcing effective dissemination strategies among patients and training programmes for professionals focused on SDM.
Kirsten G Volz
Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.
Clement, Rémy; Tournebise, Pascal; Perkin, Samuel
The objective of this deliverable is to present the requirements for adapting available tools/models and identifying data needs for probabilistic reliability analysis and optimal decision-making in the short-term decision making process. It will serve as a basis for the next tasks of GARPUR work ...
Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.
The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…
in the original research to develop the decision framework recommended that organizational culture be more emphasized. Therefore, this research...effort evaluated the decision framework proposed by Captain Bower and adapted the framework by including organizational culture . To incorporate... organizational culture into the framework, this research identified cultural factors that can be assessed to determine whether or not a given organizational
Campbell, Vincent; Lofstrom, Jocelyn; Jerome, Brian
This guide makes the case for a decision-making focus in the science curriculum as a response to concern over preparing scientifically literate students. The student activities are organized by guided activities and independent exercises. Themes of the guided activities include xenotransplants, immunizations, household cleaning products, ozone,…
van der Weide, T.L.
Decision makers often have to make difficult trade-offs in situations where multiple aspects matter that are different by nature. For example, in a crisis scenario with a big fire in a factory, trade-offs may have to be made between the safety of the victims and personnel, and the effects on the env
Bloomfield, Stefan D.
This article proposes a conceptual decision-making framework for college and university offices of institutional research during times when budgetary retrenchment and reallocation of resources is necessary. Key issues the office should consider include understanding the institution's purpose, strategy selection, evaluation activities, student…
Hansen, Esben Rune; Satti, Srinivasa Rao; Tiedemann, Peter
The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...
Aldashev, Gani; Kirchsteiger, Georg; Sebald, Alexander Christopher
It is a persistent finding in psychology and experimental economics that people's behavior is not only shaped by outcomes but also by decision-making procedures. In this paper we develop a general framework capable of modelling these procedural concerns. Within the context of psychological games we...
Rune Hansen, Esben; Srinivasa Rao, S.; Tiedemann, Peter
The paper introduces a new technique for compressing Binary Decision Diagrams in those cases where random access is not required. Using this technique, compression and decompression can be done in linear time in the size of the BDD and compression will in many cases reduce the size of the BDD to 1...
decision maker’s beliefs must be known to him- self (De Finetti 1974). However, objective probabilities (i.e., frequencies) - those known from observations...CA: Duxbury Press, 664. De Finetti , B. 1974. Theory of probability. New York: Wiley. Dempster, A.P. 1968. A generalization of Bayesian inference
Becker, Samuel L.; Galvin, Kathleen M.; Houston, Marsha; Friedrich, Gustav W.; Pearson, Judy C.; Seiler, William J.; Trent, Judith S.
Presents criteria and procedures that can help to substantially increase the probability of a good tenure decision. Notes that the tenure procedures must be designed and followed in a way that ensures, to the degree possible, validity, fairness, and equity. Stresses the importance of maintaining good records and mentoring. (SG)
Eight psychometric instruments were administered to 10 elite male Portuguese orienteers. The cognitive process involved in decision making did not differ between the best orienteers and the others. This group of athletes had a high capacity for work realization and a strong need to be in control of interpersonal situations. (Author/SV)
Stalmeier, P.F.M.; Roosmalen, M.S van; Verhoef, L.C.G.; Hoekstra-Weebers, J.E.; Oosterwijk-Wakka, J.C.; Moog, U.; Hoogerbrugge-van der Linden, N.; Daal, W.A.J. van
There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,
Stalmeier, PFM; Roosmalen, MS; Verhoef, LCG; Hoekstra-Weebers, JEHM; Oosterwijk, JC; Moog, U; Hoogerbrugge, N; van Daal, WAJ
There are several instruments to assess how patients evaluate their medical treatment choice. These are used to evaluate decision aids. Our objective is to investigate which psychological factors play a role when patients evaluate their medical treatment choices. A pool of 36 items was constructed,
von Eye, Alexander; DeShon, Richard P.
In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…
Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P
The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.
Discusses how a positive partnership with the architect can help one who is inexperienced in building design and construction make smart building decisions. Tips address how to prevent change orders, what red flags to look for in a building project, what the administrator should expect from the architect to make the project run smoothly, and what…
Describes a game that illustrates the effects of pricing on profit. Students compete against each other in an imaginary industry and become familiar with decision-making processes. Depicts the gameboard, how to make it, and how to use it. (GG)
Groote, J.F.; Pol, J.C. van de
We incorporate equations in binary decision diagrams (BDD). The resulting objects are called EQ-BDDs. A straightforward notion of ordered EQ-BDDs (EQ-OBDD) is defined, and it is proved that each EQ-BDD is logically equivalent to an EQ-OBDD. Moreover, on EQ-OBDDs satisfiability and tautology checkin
... including your partner) ? Is your decision to have sex based on the right reasons? (It shouldn’t be based on peer ... re ready! Tags: birth control , condoms , contraception , healthy sex , peer ... Contraception (EC) Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity: General Information How do I ...
Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored...... through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied...
Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Cofer, Darren; Musliner, David J.; Mueller, Joseph; Engstrom, Eric
Advanced capabilities planned for the next generation of aircraft, including those that will operate within the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), will necessarily include complex new algorithms and non-traditional software elements. These aircraft will likely incorporate adaptive control algorithms that will provide enhanced safety, autonomy, and robustness during adverse conditions. Unmanned aircraft will operate alongside manned aircraft in the National Airspace (NAS), with intelligent software performing the high-level decision-making functions normally performed by human pilots. Even human-piloted aircraft will necessarily include more autonomy. However, there are serious barriers to the deployment of new capabilities, especially for those based upon software including adaptive control (AC) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Current civil aviation certification processes are based on the idea that the correct behavior of a system must be completely specified and verified prior to operation. This report by Rockwell Collins and SIFT documents our comprehensive study of the state of the art in intelligent and adaptive algorithms for the civil aviation domain, categorizing the approaches used and identifying gaps and challenges associated with certification of each approach.
AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim
Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990
CUI Zhong-jie; YAO Shu-ping; HU Chang-zhen
Based on the analysis of inherent limitations in existing security response decision-making systems, a dynamic adaptive model of fault response is presented. Several security fault levels were founded, which comprise the basic level, equipment level and mechanism level. Fault damage cost is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Meanwhile, the model evaluates the impact of different responses upon fault repair and normal operation. Response operation cost and response negative cost are introduced through quantitative calculation. This model adopts a comprehensive response decision of security fault in three principles-the maximum and minimum principle, timeliness principle, acquiescence principle, which assure optimal response countermeasure is selected for different situations. Experimental results show that the proposed model has good self-adaptation ability, timeliness and cost-sensitiveness.
Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi
Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent
Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.
Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele
Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization.
Smith, D L; Hamrick, M H; Anspaugh, D J
Teachers are usually very enthusiastic in their evaluations of decision stories. Decision Story Strategies offer a change of pace, promote student involvement and stimulate creative thinking, problem solving and everpresent creative teaching-learning opportunities. The real-life problems presented within the structure of a decision story provide meaningful learning opportunities for students. Students begin to think in a broader perspective when considering other points of view and information sources. The Decision Story Strategy used with the Decision-Making Model provides a powerful tool for health educators to develop skills for making and evaluating decisions in an interesting and meaningful context. It may not be a panacea for all health educators, but is an effective strategy for the teacher concerned with developing independent decision makers. Most importantly, students are provided opportunities to solve their present problems as well as develop decision-making skills for the future.
Ierland, van E.C.
The KfC program Decision Support Tools aims at improving tools for design and evaluation of adaptation strategies with a special focus on spatial planning and cross cutting issues. The program focuses on three core elements 1. tools for formulation of the adaptation task, based on climate scenarios
Lacksonen, Thomas A.
Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given
Toarmino, Camille R; Wong, Lauren; Miller, Cory T
An audience can have a profound effect on the dynamics of communicative interactions. As a result, non-human primates often adjust their social decision-making strategies depending on the audience composition at a given time. Here we sought to test how the unique vocal behaviour of multiple audience members affected decisions to communicate. To address this issue, we developed a novel experimental paradigm in which common marmosets directly interacted with multiple 'virtual monkeys' (VMs), each of whom represented an individual marmoset with distinct vocal behaviour. This active social signalling paradigm provided subjects an opportunity to interact with and learn about the behaviour of each VM in the network and apply this knowledge in subsequent communicative decisions. We found that subjects' propensity to interact with particular VMs was determined by the behaviour of each VM in the audience and suggests that marmoset social decision-making strategies are highly adaptive to nuances of the immediate communication network.
Schultheiss, T. E.; El-Mahdi, Anas M.
Statistical decision theory has been applied to the treatment planning decision of radiation therapy. The decision involves the choice of parameters which determine the radiation dose distribution. To choose among dose distributions requires a decision rule which reflects the uncertainty of possible outcomes for any specific dose distribution and the various risks associated with each outcome. A relative gravity or morbidity is assigned to each possible complication of treatment. In this stud...
Ebi, Kristie L; Hess, Jeremy J; Isaksen, Tania Busch
To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.
How do people respond to negative life events? Crisis decision theory combines the strengths of coping theories with research on decision making to predict the responses people choose under negative circumstances. The theory integrates literatures on coping, health behavior, and decision making, among others, into 3 stages that describe the…
Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.
Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…
Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.
Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…
Radcliffe, R. R.; Tabors, R. D.
Two interdependent studies which explore the underlying factors in the decision by private, private non-profit, and public sector facility owners to invest in cogeneration technology are summarized. The employ factor analysis techniques to explain the decision to invest and discriminant analysis to group the survey respondents into non-cogenerators and potential cogenerators. Data for both studies come from a survey of commercial, industrial, and institutional electric energy consumers who used more than 750 kW demand in any one month of 1981 for a selected electric utility in the Boston area. There were 129 usable responses to the survey of 32.2% of the population. The studies confirm that a number of factors other than purely economic considerations may prevent use of cogeneration technology at the present time. These factors include: uncertainty caused by regulatory action; desire for energy self sufficiency by the organization; financial flexibility; experience with electricity cogeneration or self generation; and capital budget planning methods.
The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is: (1) to study the decision-making process in a nuclear context with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness; (2) to disseminate knowledge on nuclear emergency preparedness including courses in the field of off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents; (3) to co-ordinate efforts within SCK-CEN in the field of medical applications of radiation; (4) to support projects and reflexion groups related to interdisciplinary research on the no-technical aspects of radiation protection or nuclear apllications; (5) to give advice and support to authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available. Main focus of the programme is on the surveillance of the territory and emergency preparedness. Principal achievements in 2000 are described.
Mueller Loose, Simone
Consumers' food decisions are to a large extent shaped by automatic processes, which are either internally directed through learned habits and routines or externally influenced by context factors and visual information triggers. Innovative research methods such as eye tracking, choice experiments...... and food diaries allow us to better understand the impact of unconscious processes on consumers' food choices. Simone Mueller Loose will provide an overview of recent research insights into the effects of habit and context on consumers' food choices....
the military. The U.S. Army’s early retirement program is a temporary one designed to allow some soldiers to leave the service prior to 20 years of...whether it makes financial sense for an officer to select early retirement . A spreadsheet formulation is developed and used to indicate if and when...an officer should select early retirement . The program investigates the decision that various civilian salary levels and various assumed discount rates.
Cecilia Marie Ridgley
If the practice of ethics amongst the members of an enterprise and their ideal identity conflict with those of the governing membership in structure, assumptions, dynamic or learning, then we have a decision disconnect that will constrain the success of that enterprise: a governance issue. Understanding the pervasive role of ethics in leading ICT in the enterprise is vital for effective practice of enterprise ICT governance. Hitherto there has been comparatively little critical attention paid...
Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.
Steele, Glen F. (Inventor); Lansdowne, Chatwin (Inventor); Zucha, Joan P. (Inventor); Schlesinger, Adam M. (Inventor)
A soft decision analyzer system is operable to interconnect soft decision communication equipment and analyze the operation thereof to detect symbol wise alignment between a test data stream and a reference data stream in a variety of operating conditions.
textabstractWhile a whole range of factors influences the outcomes of a marketing policy, it is managerial decision-making that can really make a difference. A clearer understanding of how marketers make decisions should therefore improve their quality.
Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detail
Feldman, Laurie Beth; Ramscar, Michael; Hendrix, Peter; Baayen, R. Harald
In this study we present a novel set of discrimination-based indicators of language processing derived from Naive Discriminative Learning (ndl) theory. We compare the effectiveness of these new measures with classical lexical-distributional measures—in particular, frequency counts and form similarity measures—to predict lexical decision latencies when a complete morphological segmentation of masked primes is or is not possible. Data derive from a re-analysis of a large subset of decision latencies from the English Lexicon Project, as well as from the results of two new masked priming studies. Results demonstrate the superiority of discrimination-based predictors over lexical-distributional predictors alone, across both the simple and primed lexical decision tasks. Comparable priming after masked corner and cornea type primes, across two experiments, fails to support early obligatory segmentation into morphemes as predicted by the morpho-orthographic account of reading. Results fit well with ndl theory, which, in conformity with Word and Paradigm theory, rejects the morpheme as a relevant unit of analysis. Furthermore, results indicate that readers with greater spelling proficiency and larger vocabularies make better use of orthographic priors and handle lexical competition more efficiently. PMID:28235015
Margaret Y. Ficaj
Full Text Available The 2011 participation decision study involved exploration into the impact of the external education environment on the decision for private school participation in Federal funding, one deliberately declining player in the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001(NCLB choice and competition equation. In the qualitative collective case, three religiously triangulated Michigan private school decision-makers submitted to semi-structured interviews. Analysis of the external environmental factors was through the lens of Gould and Eldredge’s (1977 environmentally oriented theory, punctuated equilibria philosophy of change. Analysis involved layering, direct interpretation, categorical aggregation, and cross-comparison of two external environmental categories identified at literature review (NCLB-content and privatization-dynamic with numerous major and sub-groupings and space for newly emergent material. The category privatization-dynamics emerged as significant influence, as did the major theme trust and the sub-themes motivational intent, competency, consistency, grapevine, creativity or inspiration, restrictions on curriculum, lack of awareness of opportunities available, and fear of failure. The study included five specific recommendations for leaders of change to explain, predict, and improve organizational performance toward greater synchronization in operation of the NCLB choice and competition mechanisms.
Traditionally, the decision tree method is defined and used for finding the optimal solution of a Bayesian decision problem. And it is difficult to use the decision tree method to find the sub-optimal solution, not to mention to rank alternatives. This paper discusses how to use the decision tree method for the alternative selecting and ranking.A practical case study is given to illustrate the applicability.
Khani, Abbas; Rainer, Gregor
Decision making is an adaptive behavior that takes into account several internal and external input variables and leads to the choice of a course of action over other available and often competing alternatives. While it has been studied in diverse fields ranging from mathematics, economics, ecology, and ethology to psychology and neuroscience, recent cross talk among perspectives from different fields has yielded novel descriptions of decision processes. Reinforcement-guided decision making models are based on economic and reinforcement learning theories, and their focus is on the maximization of acquired benefit over a defined period of time. Studies based on reinforcement-guided decision making have implicated a large network of neural circuits across the brain. This network includes a wide range of cortical (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) and subcortical (e.g., nucleus accumbens and subthalamic nucleus) brain areas and uses several neurotransmitter systems (e.g., dopaminergic and serotonergic systems) to communicate and process decision-related information. This review discusses distinct as well as overlapping contributions of these networks and neurotransmitter systems to the processing of decision making. We end the review by touching on neural circuitry and neuromodulatory regulation of exploratory decision making.
Wu, Wensong; Peña, Edsel A
This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. Such problems arise in many practical areas such as the biological and medical sciences, where the available dataset is from microarrays or other high-throughput technology and with the goal being to decide which among of many genes are relevant with respect to some phenotype of interest; in the engineering and reliability sciences; in astronomy; in education; and in business. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the quality of decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through a class of frailty-induced Archimedean copulas. In particular, non-Gaussian dependent data structure, which is typical with failure-time data, can be entertained. The numerical implementation of the determination of the Bayes optimal action is facilitated through sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The theory developed could also be extended to the problem of multiple hypotheses testing, multiple classification and prediction, and high-dimensional variable selection. The proposed procedure is illustrated for the simple versus simple hypotheses setting and for the composite hypotheses setting
XU Xianghua; HE lin
In phonetic decision tree based state tying, decision trees with varying leaf nodes denote models with different complexity. By studying the influence of model complexity on system performance and speaker adaptation, a decision tree dynamic pruning method based on Minimum Description Length (MDL) criterion is presented. In the method, a well-trained,large-sized phonetic decision tree is selected as an initial model set, and model complexity is computed by adding a penalty parameter which alters according to the amount of adaptation data. Largely attributed to the reasonable selection of initial models and the integration of stochastic and aptotic of MDL criterion, the proposed method gains high performance by combining with speaker adaptation.
Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård; Mikkola, Juliana Hsuan
of these decisions can cause a high strategic risk. This paper describes and discusses the complexity of the platform decisions. We argue that new methods have to be introduced in order to create a comprehensive picture of the consequences of the platform decisions. One of the promising new methods...
Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.
Freixas Bosch, Josep; Pons Vallès, Montserrat
In the paper Decisiveness indices are semiindices (Freixas and Pons, 2016) it was shown that any decisiveness index obtained from an anonymous probability distribution is a semiindex, and that the converse is not true. In this note we characterize the semiindices which are indices of decisiveness. Peer Reviewed
Bate, Louise; Hutchinson, Andrew; Underhill, Jonathan; Maskrey, Neal
There is much variation in the implementation of the best available evidence into clinical practice. These gaps between evidence and practice are often a result of multiple individual decisions. When making a decision, there is so much potentially relevant information available, it is impossible to know or process it all (so called 'bounded rationality'). Usually, a limited amount of information is selected to reach a sufficiently satisfactory decision, a process known as satisficing. There are two key processes used in decision making: System 1 and System 2. System 1 involves fast, intuitive decisions; System 2 is a deliberate analytical approach, used to locate information which is not instantly recalled. Human beings unconsciously use System 1 processing whenever possible because it is quicker and requires less effort than System 2. In clinical practice, gaps between evidence and practice can occur when a clinician develops a pattern of knowledge, which is then relied on for decisions using System 1 processing, without the activation of a System 2 check against the best available evidence from high quality research. The processing of information and decision making may be influenced by a number of cognitive biases, of which the decision maker may be unaware. Interventions to encourage appropriate use of System 1 and System 2 processing have been shown to improve clinical decision making. Increased understanding of decision making processes and common sources of error should help clinical decision makers to minimize avoidable mistakes and increase the proportion of decisions that are better.
Feldman, M. S.; Sarbaugh-Thompson, M.
Electronic communication can either facilitate or sabotage decision-making contexts. This article formulates recommendations about when and how to use electronic communication to enhance decision making and describes various decision contexts. Solutions to communication problems such as groupthink, social deadlock, bureaucratic isolation from…
Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip
The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.
He, Hongmei; McGinnity, Thomas Martin; Coleman, Sonya; Gardiner, Bryan
Machine learning enables the creation of a nonlinear mapping that describes robot-environment interaction, whereas computing linguistics make the interaction transparent. In this paper, we develop a novel application of a linguistic decision tree for a robot route learning problem by dynamically deciding the robot's behavior, which is decomposed into atomic actions in the context of a specified task. We examine the real-time performance of training and control of a linguistic decision tree, and explore the possibility of training a machine learning model in an adaptive system without dual CPUs for parallelization of training and control. A quantified evaluation approach is proposed, and a score is defined for the evaluation of a model's robustness regarding the quality of training data. Compared with the nonlinear system identification nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with eXogeneous inputs model structure with offline parameter estimation, the linguistic decision tree model with online linguistic ID3 learning achieves much better performance, robustness, and reliability.
History and BackgroundIntroductionHistoryPhysical OpticsTerms in Adaptive OpticsSources of AberrationsAtmospheric TurbulenceThermal BloomingNonatmospheric SourcesAdaptive Optics CompensationPhase ConjugationLimitations of Phase ConjugationArtificial Guide StarsLasers for Guide StarsCombining the LimitationsLinear AnalysisPartial Phase ConjugationAdaptive Optics SystemsAdaptive Optics Imaging SystemsBeam Propagation Syst
Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.
Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ
Christensen, Anders; Ravn, Ole
SLLAB is a MATLAB-family software package for solving control and identification problems. This paper concerns the planning of a general-purpose subroutine structure for solving identification and adaptive control problems. A general-purpose identification algorithm is suggested, which allows...... a total redesign of the system within each sample. The necessary design parameters are evaluated and a decision vector is defined, from which the identification algorithm can be generated by the program. Using the decision vector, a decision-node tree structure is built up, where the nodes define...
Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N
Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients.
The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.
Blettner, D.P.; He, Z.; Hu, S.; Bettis, R.
Organizations learn and adapt their aspiration levels based on reference points (prior aspiration, prior performance, and prior performance of reference groups). The relative attention that organizations allocate to these reference points impacts organizational search and strategic decisions. Howeve
Jørgensen, L N; Noe, E; Langvad, A M;
system Crop Protection Online is widely used by advisors and as a learning tool for students. Although the system has been validated in many field trials over the years and has shown reliable results, the number of end-users among farmers has been relatively low during the last 10 years (approximately...... 1000 farmers). A sociological investigation of farmers' decision-making styles in the area of crop protection has shown that arable farmers can be divided into three major groups: (a) system-orientated farmers, (b) experience-based farmers and (c) advisory-orientated farmers. The information required...
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a procedure for establishing priorities in multi-criteria decision making problems. Here we discuss the Logarithmic Least Squares (LLS) method for the AHP and group-AHP, which provides an exact and unique solution for the priority vector. Also, we show that for the group-AHP, the LLS method is equivalent with the minimization of the weighted sum of generalized Kullback-Leibler divergences, between the group-priority vector and the priority vector of each expert.
Flyvbjerg, Bent; Bruzelius, Nils; Rothengatter, Werner
the borderlines of private and public involvement, four specific measures to increase accountability are suggested and detailed: (1) Transparency, (2) Performance specifications, (3) Explication of regulatory regimes, and (4) Involvement of risk capital. The decision on whether or not to build a multi......In terms of risk, many appraisals of very large infrastructure investments assume, or pretend to assume, that infrastructure policies and projects exist in a predictable Newtonian world of cause and effect where things go according to plan. In reality, the world of policy and project preparation...
Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.
An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows
Full Text Available Generalised uncertainty, a phenomenon that today’s managers are facing as part of their professional experience, makes it impossible to anticipate the way the business environment will evolve or what will be the consequences of the decisions they plan to implement. Any decision making process within the company entails the simultaneous presence of a number of economic, technical, juridical, human and managerial variables. The development and the approval of a decision is the result of decision making activities developed by the decision maker and sometimes by a decision support team or/and a decision support system (DSS. These aspects related to specific applications of decision support systems in risk management will be approached in this research paper. Decisions in general and management decisions in particular are associated with numerous risks, due to their complexity and increasing contextual orientation. In each business entity, there are concerns with the implementation of risk management in order to improve the likelihood of meeting objectives, the trust of the parties involved, increase the operational safety and security as well as the protection of the environment, minimise losses, improve organisational resilience in order to diminish the negative impact on the organisation and provide a solid foundation for decision making. Since any business entity is considered to be a wealth generator, the analysis of their performance should not be restricted to financial efficiency alone, but will also encompass their economic efficiency as well. The type of research developed in this paper entails different dimensions: conceptual, methodological, as well as empirical testing. Subsequently, the conducted research entails a methodological side, since the conducted activities have resulted in the presentation of a simulation model that is useful in decision making processes on the capital market. The research conducted in the present paper
‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important areas of applications are knowledge extraction and representation. The benefit of considering inhibitory rules is connected with the fact that in some situations they can describe more knowledge than the decision ones. Decision tables with many-valued decisions arise in combinatorial optimization, computational geometry, fault diagnosis, and especially under the processing of data sets. In this thesis, various examples of real-life problems are considered which help to understand the motivation of the investigation. We extend relatively simple results obtained earlier for decision rules over decision tables with many-valued decisions to the case of inhibitory rules. The behavior of Shannon functions (which characterize complexity of rule systems) is studied for finite and infinite information systems, for global and local approaches, and for decision and inhibitory rules. The extensions of dynamic programming for the study of decision rules over decision tables with single-valued decisions are generalized to the case of decision tables with many-valued decisions. These results are also extended to the case of inhibitory rules. As a result, we have algorithms (i) for multi-stage optimization of rules relative to such criteria as length or coverage, (ii) for counting the number of optimal rules, (iii) for construction of Pareto optimal points for bi-criteria optimization problems, (iv) for construction of graphs describing relationships between two cost functions, and (v) for construction of graphs describing relationships between cost and accuracy of rules. The applications of created tools include comparison (based on information about Pareto optimal points) of greedy heuristics for bi-criteria optimization of rules
van Voorn, George A. K.; Ligtenberg, Arend; Molenaar, Jaap
Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover’s distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system. PMID:28196372
Aldasheva, A A
The article looks at the relation between adaptation strategy and individual style of activity based on the doctrine of human adaptation of V.I. Medvedev that enables opening up characteristics of professional activity in diverse environments. It illustrates a role and the relation between physiological and psychological mechanisms, which can vary, depending on individual adaptation strategies of a person. Theoretical and practical studies based on activity paradigm allow us to look at the basic principles of human interaction with the environment from a new perspective. Based on the law on the conceptual model of adaptation proposed by V.I. Medvedev, the article illustrates that humans are active figures in adaptation situations, modeling their own adaption strategies, using different individual styles manifested in the programs of adaptive behaviour.
Rosenzweig, C.; Horton, R.
The Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup is comprised of NASA Earth scientists, applications researchers and institutional stewards, tasked with assisting the development of Climate Change Adaptation strategies for NASA as a whole as well as at individual Centers. In an Executive Order dated October 5, 2009, titled "Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance" the President mandates that all agencies "evaluate agency climate-change risks and vulnerabilities to manage the effects of climate change on the agency's operations and mission in both the short and long-term." To further these goals, the CASI Workgroup contributes to the scientific advancement of relevant climate and impacts studies at the Center-scale, contributes to a body of knowledge on how to apply Earth science in decision-making and ensures that NASA institutional stewards' decision-making process benefits from the best available scientific information. Climate variability and climate change pose a range of hazards to the NASA Centers located throughout the country. These changing climate hazards may challenge key NASA missions by threatening operations and damaging critical infrastructure. Studying and understanding these hazards are essential to ensuring effective risk management for the centers. By developing climate change adaptation strategies tailored to the specific impacts that are anticipated, NASA decision makers will be able to minimize negative effects of climate and climate change, while leveraging positive outcomes. The NASA CASI Workgroup will perform a variety of tasks including development of climate projections for each Center, inventory of climate and climate impact data and project activities within NASA, assessment of adaption approaches and Center-level planning strategies, recommendations for future research initiatives, and leading of thematic and region-specific workshops.
Hammad Dabo Baba
Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning
Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.
Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We
C. S. Holling
Full Text Available We present a conceptual framework that explores some of the forces creating innovation and novelty in complex systems. Understanding the sources of variability and novelty may help us better understand complex systems. Understanding complex phenomena such as invasions, migration, and nomadism may provide insight into the structure of ecosystems and other complex systems, and aid our attempts to cope with and mitigate these phenomena, in the case of invasions, and better understand and or predict them. Our model is broadly applicable to ecological theory, including community ecology, resilience, restoration, and policy. Characterizing the link between landscape change and the composition of species communities may help policymakers in their decision-making processes. Understanding how variability is related to system structure, and how that generates novelty, may help us understand how resilience is generated. We suggest that there are three primary opportunities for the generation of novelty into complex systems. These sources of novelty are inherent in the cross-scale structure of complex systems, and are critical for creating adaptive capacity. Novelty originates from the inherent variability present in cross scale structures, within scale reorganization associated with adaptive cycles, and whole-scale transformations resulting from regime shifts. Although speculative, our ideas are grounded in research and observation, and they may provide insight into the evolution of complex systems.
Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I...
Inimtegevuse, keskkonna ja asjade analüüs Peirceþilikus võtmes. Püütakse eritleda tootekekkonna ja disainiprotsessiga seotud inimkogemust. Artefakti käsitletakse kui vastastikuses koostöös toimivat asja, mitte pelgalt passiivset objekti
Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon
Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems.
Lulé, Dorothée; Nonnenmacher, Sonja; Sorg, Sonja; Heimrath, Johanna; Hautzinger, Martin; Meyer, Thomas; Kübler, Andrea; Birbaumer, Niels; Ludolph, Albert C
Decisions and determinants of decisions to prolong or shorten life in the course of fatal diseases like ALS are poorly understood. Decisions and desire for hastened death of N = 93 ALS patients were investigated in a prospective longitudinal approach three times in the course of 1 year. Determinants of decisions were evaluated: quality of life (QoL), depression, feeling of being a burden, physical function, social support and cognitive status. More than half of patients had a positive attitude towards life-sustaining treatments and they had a low desire for hastened death. Of those with undecided or negative attitude, 10 % changed attitudes towards life-sustaining treatments in the course of 1 year. Patients' desire to hasten death was low and decreased significantly within 1 year despite physical function decline. Those with a high desire for hastened death decided against invasive therapeutic treatments. QoL, depression and social support were not predictors for vital decisions and remained stable. Feeling of being a burden was a predictor for decisions against life-supporting treatments. Throughout physical function loss, decisions to prolong life are flexibly adapted while desire to shorten life declines. QoL was stable and not a predictor for vital decisions, even though anticipated low QoL has been reported to be the reason to request euthanasia. In contrast, feeling of being a burden in decision making needs more attention in clinical counselling. Considering a patient's possible adaptation processes in the course of a fatal disease is necessary.
Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I
Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences. Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable. In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function. Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...
This book offers a state of the art collection covering themes related to Advanced Intelligent Computational Technologies and Decision Support Systems which can be applied to fields like healthcare assisting the humans in solving problems. The book brings forward a wealth of ideas, algorithms and case studies in themes like: intelligent predictive diagnosis; intelligent analyzing of medical images; new format for coding of single and sequences of medical images; Medical Decision Support Systems; diagnosis of Down’s syndrome; computational perspectives for electronic fetal monitoring; efficient compression of CT Images; adaptive interpolation and halftoning for medical images; applications of artificial neural networks for real-life problems solving; present and perspectives for Electronic Healthcare Record Systems; adaptive approaches for noise reduction in sequences of CT images etc.
Full Text Available Biodiversity is a heritage of life that could hold the information needed for the wellbeing of human kind. The challenge of biodiversity preservation was addressed by various management solutions, the newest being the adaptive management. The paper aims to give insights for the application of adaptive management and to reveal its potential for increasing the effectiveness of ecosystem management in the Danube Delta. Carefully designed adaptive management action plans could allow important improvements in the information base that support decisions related to reed valuation.
Marotta, Stephen; Metzger, Max; Gorman, Joe; Sliva, Amy
The Dual Node Decision Wheels (DNDW) architecture is a new approach to information fusion and decision support systems. By combining cognitive systems engineering organizational analysis tools, such as decision trees, with the Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture for information fusion, the DNDW can align relevant data and information products with an organization's decision-making processes. In this paper, we present the Compositional Inference and Machine Learning Environment (CIMLE), a prototype framework based on the principles of the DNDW architecture. CIMLE provides a flexible environment so heterogeneous data sources, messaging frameworks, and analytic processes can interoperate to provide the specific information required for situation understanding and decision making. It was designed to support the creation of modular, distributed solutions over large monolithic systems. With CIMLE, users can repurpose individual analytics to address evolving decision-making requirements or to adapt to new mission contexts; CIMLE's modular design simplifies integration with new host operating environments. CIMLE's configurable system design enables model developers to build analytical systems that closely align with organizational structures and processes and support the organization's information needs.
Broek, S.P. van den; Hanckmann, P.; Ditzel, M.
An approach for decision support, consisting of situation and threat assessment is described, as part of a distributed and adaptive multi-sensor fusion engine. The decision support module combines the management and assessment components for situations and threats. The situation assessment determine
In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...
Cecilia Marie Ridgley
Full Text Available If the practice of ethics amongst the members of an enterprise and their ideal identity conflict with those of the governing membership in structure, assumptions, dynamic or learning, then we have a decision disconnect that will constrain the success of that enterprise: a governance issue. Understanding the pervasive role of ethics in leading ICT in the enterprise is vital for effective practice of enterprise ICT governance. Hitherto there has been comparatively little critical attention paid to the problem of understanding how the value systems that shape decision-making comprehensively impact the appropriate practice of governance and management in ICT. In this paper, I argue that the value systems at play within the enterprise are central and intrinsic drivers for shaping control and influence. I conclude with a framework for making sense of the complex relationship between ethics, governance and the enterprise, to assist the practitioner in focusing on those planning factors that may be moderated for effective governance. I draw on the findings from the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics’ (in partnership with the Australian Computer Society examination of ethics and regulation in the ICT industry (Lucas and Weckert, 2008 to highlight the particular problem of ethics and governance of ICT people. This paper is significant as the unambiguous establishment of the criticality of value systems in the practice of governance in the enterprise, and particularly the ICT enterprise. The proposed framework provides a systems-thinking basis for practitioners to explicitly plan and design for the dynamic interrelationship of values, people, process, and purpose in enterprise governance. The framework advocates recognition, planning and design for requisite diversity for all system components.
Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros
The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of
Purchasing decisions has always been subject to discussion in the literature. Incentives of consumers and factors affect their decision making process have been an agenda especially for marketing researchers. This study aims to find out the main factors which influence purchasing decision of 500 tourists in Mediterranean region of Turkey. In data analysis, SPSS technique is used and because data do not show normal distribution characteristic, Mann- Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis tests are app...
Rym Khemiri; Fadila Bentayeb
Data warehousing is an essential element of decision support systems. It aims at enabling the user knowledge to make better and faster daily business decisions. To improve this decision support system and to give more and more relevant information to the user, the need to integrate user's profiles into the data warehouse process becomes crucial. In this paper, we propose to exploit users' preferences as a basis for adapting OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing) queries to the user. For this, w...
REINE EN DROIT DU CANADA (2009) Défense Nationale Canada Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page i Abstract The complex and...help to guide human decision-making. He proposes an alternative descriptive model, the Critique , Explore, Compare, Adapt (CECA) Loop. This model is...section). Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page 45 The Critique phase involves questioning the conceptual model (“how you want it to
Capela Lourenco, T.; Rovisco, A.; Groot, A.M.E.; Nilsson, C.; Füssel, H.M.; Bree, van L.
Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring t
Scharon, Aracelis Janelle
The Next Generation Science Standards (NRC, 2013) positions teachers as responsible for necessary decision making about how their intended science lesson plan content supports continuous student science learning. Teachers interact with their instructional lesson plans in dynamic and constructive ways. Adapting lesson plans is complex. This process…
Marshall, James A R; Bogacz, Rafal; Dornhaus, Anna; Planqué, Robert; Kovacs, Tim; Franks, Nigel R
The problem of how to compromise between speed and accuracy in decision-making faces organisms at many levels of biological complexity. Striking parallels are evident between decision-making in primate brains and collective decision-making in social insect colonies: in both systems, separate populations accumulate evidence for alternative choices; when one population reaches a threshold, a decision is made for the corresponding alternative, and this threshold may be varied to compromise between the speed and the accuracy of decision-making. In primate decision-making, simple models of these processes have been shown, under certain parametrizations, to implement the statistically optimal procedure that minimizes decision time for any given error rate. In this paper, we adapt these same analysis techniques and apply them to new models of collective decision-making in social insect colonies. We show that social insect colonies may also be able to achieve statistically optimal collective decision-making in a very similar way to primate brains, via direct competition between evidence-accumulating populations. This optimality result makes testable predictions for how collective decision-making in social insects should be organized. Our approach also represents the first attempt to identify a common theoretical framework for the study of decision-making in diverse biological systems.
Biagini, Bonizella; Kuhl, Laura; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Ortiz, Claudia
Technology alone will not be able to solve adaptation challenges, but it is likely to play an important role. As a result of the role of technology in adaptation and the importance of international collaboration for climate change, technology transfer for adaptation is a critical but understudied issue. Through an analysis of Global Environment Facility-managed adaptation projects, we find there is significantly more technology transfer occurring in adaptation projects than might be expected given the pessimistic rhetoric surrounding technology transfer for adaptation. Most projects focused on demonstration and early deployment/niche formation for existing technologies rather than earlier stages of innovation, which is understandable considering the pilot nature of the projects. Key challenges for the transfer process, including technology selection and appropriateness under climate change, markets and access to technology, and diffusion strategies are discussed in more detail.
Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister
Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity.
Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Leleur, Steen
This paper presents and exemplifies a combination of techniques for deriving and modelling decision-maker and/or stakeholder preferences using a decision conference process. The applied techniques are used for the development of customised decision support systems (C-DSS) which can be used...... for appraisals of large transport infrastructure projects. The paper exemplifies how the process at a decision conference can be effectively supported by a DSS customised using appropriate techniques for the specific task in hand. In this respect a conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is combined...
Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.
Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....
Decision trees have been used widely to discover patterns from consistent data set. But if the data set is inconsistent, where there are groups of examples with equal values of conditional attributes but different labels, then to discover the essential patterns or knowledge from the data set is challenging. Three approaches (generalized, most common and many-valued decision) have been considered to handle such inconsistency. The decision tree model has been used to compare the classification results among three approaches. Many-valued decision approach outperforms other approaches, and M_ws_entM greedy algorithm gives faster and better prediction accuracy.
Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)
The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that
Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III
Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.
Dragoi, Ioan-Catalin; Coltuc, Dinu
This letter revisits the pairwise reversible watermarking scheme of Ou et al., 2013. An adaptive pixel pairing that considers only pixels with similar prediction errors is introduced. This adaptive approach provides an increased number of pixel pairs where both pixels are embedded and decreases the number of shifted pixels. The adaptive pairwise reversible watermarking outperforms the state-of-the-art low embedding bit-rate schemes proposed so far.
Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...
Jones, Brett C.; Press, Michael J.; Guerci, Joseph R.
This paper describes a recent study conducted to investigate the reproducibility of toolmarks left by drill bits. This paper focuses on the automated analysis aspect of the study, and particularly the advantages of using decision fusion methods in the comparisons. To enable the study to encompass a large number of samples, existing technology was adapted to the task of automatically comparing the test impressions. Advanced forensic pattern recognition algorithms that had been developed for the comparison of ballistic evidence in the DRUGFIRETM system were modified for use in this test. The results of the decision fusion architecture closely matched those obtained by expert visual examination. The study, aided by the improved pattern recognition algorithm, showed that drill bit impressions do contain reproducible marks. In a blind test, the DRUGFIRE pattern recognition algorithm, enhanced with the decision fusion architecture, consistently identified the correct bit as the source of the test impressions.
O'Connell, Lauren A; Hofmann, Hans A
Animals evaluate and respond to their social environment with adaptive decisions. Revealing the neural mechanisms of such decisions is a major goal in biology. We analyzed expression profiles for 10 neurochemical genes across 12 brain regions important for decision-making in 88 species representing five vertebrate lineages. We found that behaviorally relevant brain regions are remarkably conserved over 450 million years of evolution. We also find evidence that different brain regions have experienced different selection pressures, because spatial distribution of neuroendocrine ligands are more flexible than their receptors across vertebrates. Our analysis suggests that the diversity of social behavior in vertebrates can be explained, in part, by variations on a theme of conserved neural and gene expression networks.
Decision Support Systems in the sense of online alternative course of action (ACAO) development and analysis as well as tools for online Development of Doctrine and Tactics Techniques, and Procedures (DTTP) for support to operations make it possible to evaluate and forecast the command and control processes and the performance capabilities of the friendly and enemy forces and other decision relevant factors, support the military commander (brigade and higher) and his staff in their headquarter by increasing their ability to identify own opportunities, support all phases of the command and control process, use computer based, automatic and closed models, that can be adapted to the current situation. Objective of the paper is to present the results of studies conducted in Germany on behalf of the German Ministry of Defense with the objective to work out the conceptual basis for decision support systems and to evaluate, how this technique will influence the command and control system of the army of the federal a...
To gain insights into the neural basis of such adaptive decision-making processes, we investigated the nature of learning process in humans playing a competitive game with binary choices, using a matching pennies game. As in reinforcement learning, the subject's choice during a competitive game was biased by its choice and reward history, as well as by the strategies of its opponent. Analyses of ERP data focused on the feedback-related negativity (FRN), we found that the magnitude of ERPs after losing to the computer opponent predicted whether subjects would change decision behavior on the subsequent trial. These findings provide novel evidence that humans engage a reinforcement learning process to adjust representations of competing decision options.
Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika
The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.
Goumas, Georgios; McKee, Sally A.; Själander, Magnus
during the execution of an application can be utilized to adapt the execution context and may lead to performance gains beyond those provided by static information and compile-time adaptation. We consider specialization based on dynamic information like user input, architectural characteristics...... static analysis (either during ahead-of-time or just-in-time) compilation. We extend the notion of information-driven adaptation and outline the architecture of an infrastructure designed to enable information ow and adaptation throughout the life-cycle of an application....
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Wireless technologies are an increasingly attractive means for spatial data, input, manipulation, and distribution. Mobitrum is proposing an innovative Adaptive...
Clement, Jesper; Aastrup, Jesper; Forsberg, Signe Charlotte
This paper focuses on consumers' in-store visual tactics and decision-making. It has been argued that many consumers shop by routine or by simple rules and justification techniques when they purchase daily commodities. It has also been argued that they make a majority of decisions in the shop...
Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot 'afford' preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate ('base rate') of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available.
Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo
We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business goa
MEI Hong; HUANG Gang; LAN Ling; LI JunGuo
Being one of the basic features of Internetware, self-adaptation means that the software system can monitor its runtime state and behavior and adjust them when necessary according to pre-defined policies. Focusingon the three fundamental issues of self-adaptation, including the scope, operability and trustworthiness, a software architecture (SA) centric approach for Internetware's self-adaptation is presented in this paper. All of the self-adaptive actions, i.e. monitoring, analyzing, planning and executing, are performed based on SA. In detail, runtime state and behavior of Internetware are represented and changed in the form of runtime soft-ware architecture. The knowledge for self-adaptation is captured, organized and reasoned in the form of SA so that automatic analysis and decision-making are achieved.
Decisions about treatment and options for care at the end stage of an advanced chronic illness are important determinants of the quality of a person's death and of how family members adapt in bereavement. This article describes the steps taken to secure federal funding to study how people make the decision to enroll in hospice. The National…
Full Text Available The vulnerabilities and health burdens of climate change fall disproportionately upon lower income communities and communities of color. Yet the very groups who are most affected by climate change impacts are least likely to be involved in climate adaptation discussions. These communities face critical barriers to involvement including historical disenfranchisement, as well as a sense that climate change is distant and not personally relevant. Boundary organizations are increasingly playing an important role in bringing science to bear on policy decision-making with respect to climate change adaptation, an issue fraught with political and ideological tensions. Our project aimed to engage underrepresented communities in climate change adaptation decision-making using a neighborhood consensus conference model developed and tested in several diverse districts of Saint Paul, Minnesota. Our partnership, a “linked chain” of boundary organizations, devised a neighborhood consensus conference model to present best-available climate data as tangible, place-based scenarios. In so doing, we made climate change “personal” for those who remain outside of climate change planning discourses and opened an opportunity for them to assess their community’s vulnerabilities and communicate their priorities for public investment. Our neighborhood-based model built trust and social capital with local residents and allowed us to bring new voices into conversations around climate change adaptation concerns and priorities. We believe this work will have a long term impact on local climate adaptation planning decisions.
James M. TIEN
Urban infrastructures are the focus of terrorist acts because, quite simply, they produce the most visible impact, if not casualties. While terrorist acts are the most insidious and onerous of all disruptions, it is obvious that there are many similarities to the way one should deal with these willful acts and those caused by natural and accidental incidents that have also resulted in adverse and severe consequences. However, there is one major and critical difference between terrorist acts and the other types of disruptions: the terrorist acts are willful - and therefore also adaptive, if not coordinated. One must counter these acts with the same, if not more sophisticated, willful, adaptive and informed approach. Real-time, information-based decision making - which Tien (2003) has called the decision informatics paradigm - is the approach advanced herein to help make the right decisions at the various stages of a disruption. It is focused on decisions and based on multiple data sources, data fusion and analysis methods, timely information, stochastic decision models and a systems engineering outlook; moreover, it is multidisciplinary, evolutionary and systemic in practice. The approach provides a consistent way to address real-time emergency issues, including those concerned with the preparation for a major disruption, the prediction of such a disruption, the prevention or mitigation of the disruption, the detection of the disruption, the response to the disruption, and the recovery steps that are necessary to adequately, ifnot fully, recuperate from the disruption. The efforts of the U. S. Department of Homeland Security and its academically-based Homeland Security Centers of Excellence are considered within the proposed types, stages and decisions framework.
While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the
Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.
During crises, relief agency commanders have to make decisions in a complex and uncertain environment, requiring them to continuously adapt to unforeseen environmental changes. In the process of adaptation, the commanders depend on information management systems for information. Yet there are still
Bijmolt, T.H.A.; Wedel, M.; DeSarbo, W.S.
We propose Adaptive Multidimensional Scaling (AMDS) for simultaneously deriving a brand map and market segments using consumer data on cognitive decision sets and brand dissimilarities.In AMDS, the judgment task is adapted to the individual respondent: dissimilarity judgments are collected only for
Ford, James D.; Tilleard, Simon E.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Biesbroek, Robbert; Lesnikowski, Alexandra C.; MacDonald, Graham K.; Hsu, Angel; Chen, Chen; Bizikova, Livia
The capacity to collect and analyze massive amounts of data is transforming research in the natural and social sciences (1). And yet, the climate change adaptation community has largely overlooked these developments. Here, we examine how “big data” can inform adaptation research and decision-making
Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...
Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey
Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated
, the technical precursor to the world’s first gravitational wave astronomical observatory, LISA. The LISA mission itself (to be carried out in cooperation with the United States) is scheduled for launch in 2012. ESA's Cosmic Vision, set to last until 2012, is a living programme. It has to adapt constantly to the available funding as well as respond to the expectations of the scientific community, and to technological developments. Within these boundaries, the decisions made by the SPC try to maximise the outcome of Cosmic Vision across disciplines, keeping it challenging and at the same time affordable. Nonetheless, there are many European scientists with ambitions that exceed the programme’s ability to respond.
Steele, Glen; Lansdowne, Chatwin; Zucha, Joan; Schlensinger, Adam
The Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) is an instrument that combines hardware, firmware, and software to perform realtime closed-loop end-to-end statistical analysis of single- or dual- channel serial digital RF communications systems operating in very low signal-to-noise conditions. As an innovation, the unique SDA capabilities allow it to perform analysis of situations where the receiving communication system slips bits due to low signal-to-noise conditions or experiences constellation rotations resulting in channel polarity in versions or channel assignment swaps. SDA s closed-loop detection allows it to instrument a live system and correlate observations with frame, codeword, and packet losses, as well as Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) events. The SDA s abilities are not confined to performing analysis in low signal-to-noise conditions. Its analysis provides in-depth insight of a communication system s receiver performance in a variety of operating conditions. The SDA incorporates two techniques for identifying slips. The first is an examination of content of the received data stream s relation to the transmitted data content and the second is a direct examination of the receiver s recovered clock signals relative to a reference. Both techniques provide benefits in different ways and allow the communication engineer evaluating test results increased confidence and understanding of receiver performance. Direct examination of data contents is performed by two different data techniques, power correlation or a modified Massey correlation, and can be applied to soft decision data widths 1 to 12 bits wide over a correlation depth ranging from 16 to 512 samples. The SDA detects receiver bit slips within a 4 bits window and can handle systems with up to four quadrants (QPSK, SQPSK, and BPSK systems). The SDA continuously monitors correlation results to characterize slips and quadrant change and is capable of performing analysis even when the
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Adaptive Multimedia Retrieval, AMR 2012, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in October 2012. The 17 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissi...
XIE Sheng-dong; WU Meng
The integration of cellular network (CN) and wireless local area network (WLAN) is the trend of the next generation mobile communication systems, and nodes will handoff between the two kinds of networks. The received signal strength (RSS) is the dominant factor consijered when handoff occurs. In order to improve the handoff efficiency, this study proposes an adaptive decision algorithm for vertical handoff on the basis of fast Fourier transform (FFT). The algorithm makes handoff decision after analyzing the signal strength fluctuation which is caused by slow fading through FFT. Simulations show that the algorithm reduces the number of handoff by 35%, shortens the areas influenced by slow fading, and enables the nodes to make full use of WLAN in communication compared with traditional algorithms.
Perez Bernabeu Elena
Full Text Available Decision making is one of the important tasks of every manager. The process of taking decisions has to be based on knowledge. For optimizing this process some software solutions has been created. In this article we tried to summarize some of the features which exists in some software applications.
Claassen, G.D.H.; Hendriks, T.H.B.; Hendrix, E.M.T.
Decision science is the discipline that is concerned with the development and applications of quantitative methods and techniques to support decision making processes. This extensively revised edition of two former versions of the book discusses the general principles and often used optimisation tec
Encheva, Sylvia; Kondratenko, Yuriy; Solesvik, Maryna Z.; Tumin, Sharil
Experience shows that intuitive judgment and decision making is not allwas of sufficient quality and is getting worse in the presence of increasing complexity. One of the solutions to such problems is to use decision support systems. This paper focuses on assessment criteria of delivery quality in the transport logistics.
the correct decision, or do they transition correctly? Most utilization of the principle of regret has been on analyzing its impact on decision...recode selections to adv sel scores decide[decide== Ŗ"] <- -1 decide[decide== ŗ"] <- 1 decide[decide== Ř"] <- 1 element
Y.M. van Everdingen (Yvonne); B. Wierenga (Berend)
textabstractThe subject of this paper is intra-firm adoption decisions, a relatively unexplored research area in the marketing literature. In particular, we investigate which factors influence the intra-firm adoption decisions regarding the common European currency of the treasury, purchasing and sa
Decision-making is the process of choosing one out of several alternatives. The study of decision-making is inherently multidisciplinary and can be approached from many different angles. Traditional accounts in economics and biology have a normative flavour and prescribe, rather than describe decisi
Hoyle, Julie E.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.
DECIDE is a teacher-friendly, integrated approach designed to stimulate learning by allowing students to make decisions about situations they face in their lives while using scientific weather principles. This learning unit integrates weather science, decision theory, mathematics, statistics, geography, and reading in a context of decision…
Bestaoui Sebbane, Yasmina
This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent. Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algori...
Shapovalov, V A
It was established in experiment, that the changes of the natural resistance of organism indexes and of the peritoneal cavity cytology has compensatory-adaptational character while the denervation-adaptational syndrome occurrence and progress, which may be assessed as eustress. Vagotomy and operative trauma cause qualitatively different reactions of an organism.
Szu, H.; Hsu, C. [Univ. of Southwestern Louisiana, Lafayette, LA (United States)
Human sensors systems (HSS) may be approximately described as an adaptive or self-learning version of the Wavelet Transforms (WT) that are capable to learn from several input-output associative pairs of suitable transform mother wavelets. Such an Adaptive WT (AWT) is a redundant combination of mother wavelets to either represent or classify inputs.
Austin, Laurel C.; Reventlow, Susanne; Sandøe, Peter
Increasingly, medical choices involve deciding whether to look for evidence of undetected, asymptomatic conditions, or increased risk of future conditions (i.e. screening). Those who screen at sufficiently high risk face decisions about interventions to prevent or postpone the onset of possible......, but not certain, future symptomatic conditions. Other preventive decisions include whether or not to accept population-based intervention, such as vaccination. Using decision trees, we model the normative structures and associated uncertainties that underlie five medical decision situations, each of which......) an individual for a population-based intervention. Analysis of these situations facilitates examination of intuitive probabilistic reasoning. Drawing on evidence in related literature, we discuss some implications of decision-makers imposing the wrong structure or probabilistic reasoning when making medical...
Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.
Holmberg, J.E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Rosqvist, T.; Simola, K. [VTT Automation (Finland)
Along with the adoption of risk informed decision making principles, the need for formal probabilistic decision rule or criteria has been risen. However, there are many practical and theoretical problems in the application of probabilistic criteria. One has to think what is the proper way to apply probabilistic rules together with deterministic ones and how the criteria are weighted with respect to each other. In this report, we approach the above questions from the decision theoretic point of view. We give a short review of the most well known probabilistic criteria, and discuss examples of their use. We present a decision analytic framework for evaluating the criteria, and we analyse how the different criteria behave under incompleteness or uncertainty of the PSA model. As the conclusion of our analysis we give recommendations on the application of the criteria in different decision situations. (au)
Han, Fangqiu; Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Gür, Izzeddin; Carlson, Jean M
Identifying factors that affect human decision making and quantifying their influence remain essential and challenging tasks for the design and implementation of social and technological communication systems. We report results of a behavioral experiment involving decision making in the face of an impending natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, we characterize individual and group evacuation decision making influenced by several key factors, including the likelihood of the disaster, available shelter capacity, group size, and group decision protocol. Our results show that success in individual decision making is not a strong predictor of group performance. We use an artificial neural network trained on the collective behavior of subjects to predict individual and group outcomes. Overall model accuracy increases with the inclusion of a subject-specific performance parameter based on laboratory trials that captures individual differences. In parallel, we demonstrate that the social media activit...
Eshel eBen Jacob
Full Text Available The choice that bacteria make between sporulation and competence when subjected to stress provides a prototypical example of collective cell fate determination that is stochastic on the individual cell level, yet predictable (deterministic on the population level. This collective decision is performed by an elaborated gene network. Considerable effort has been devoted to simplify its complexity by taking physics approaches to untangle the basic functional modules that are integrated to form the complete network: 1. A stochastic switch whose transition probability is controlled by two order parameters – population density and internal/external stress. 2. An adaptable timer whose clock rate is normalized by the same two previous order parameters. 3. Sensing units which measure population density and external stress. 4. A communication module that exchanges information about the cells’ internal stress levels. 5. An oscillating gate of the stochastic switch which is regulated by the timer. The unique circuit architecture of the gate allows special dynamics and noise management features. The gate opens a window of opportunity in time for competence transitions, during which the circuit generates oscillations that are translated into a chain of short intervals with high transition probability. In addition, the unique architecture of the gate allows filtering of external noise and robustness against variations in circuit parameters and internal noise. We illustrate that a physics approach can be very valuable in investigating the decision process and in identifying its general principles. We also show that both cell-cell variability and noise have important functional roles in the collectively controlled individual decisions.
Bruin, Karianne de
Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)
Diaz del Campo, David Gutierrez; Gonzalez Villora, Sixto; Garcia Lopez, Luis M; Mitchell, Stephen
This cross-sectional study investigated the differences between young expert soccer players' (n = 55) and novice players' (n = 74) decision-making ability during performance of invasion games (ages: 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, and 13-14 years). Decision-making ability was assessed in invasion games that were appropriately modified for age and expertise. Games were modified to meet the developmental needs and previous learning of the participants, so interference between motor execution and decision making was minimized. Game performance was videotaped, and measures of cognitive components were developed from observational analysis. Decision making was measured at two levels: (a) decision making restricted to the selection of the technical-tactical skills (passing, moving with the ball, getting free, marking, tackling, double teaming, and interception) and (b) decision making in the adaptation to the tactical context of the game. Expert players remained superior in decision-making ability when variation in skill execution was controlled. Decision-making differences between levels of expertise decreased with age with regard to the first level (skill selection) and increased with age in relation to the second level (tactical-context adaptation). Findings are discussed in terms of implications for instructional focus and task design.
Full Text Available The aim of this research was to study the role of personal style of decision-making, personality dimensions according to the "Big Five" model, perceived self-efficacy in reference to occupational choices, and self-regulation in the process of occupational decision-making of fourth-year high-school students. We applied the Decision-Making Questionnaire for Adolescents, Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire, Big Five Inventory – BFI, Self-Regulation Inventory, and Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale. The results confirmed the correlation between the level of manifestation of students' problems (i.e. occupational indecision and their perceived self-efficacy in occupational decision-making, their ability of self-regulatory behaviour, and personality traits, such as emotional stability, conscientiousness and energy. The results also confirmed the difference in the level of manifestation of students' problems with relation to their prevailing style of decision making (whether it is adapted or non-adapted. The study offers better and more comprehensive insight into the behaviour and experience of fourth-year students in the process of occupational decision-making. As such it presents the basis for higher quality of occupational counselling.
Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.
Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.
Velsen, van Lex; Geest, van der Thea M.; Klaassen, Rob F.
Adaptive and adaptable systems provide tailored output to various users in various contexts. While adaptive systems base their output on implicit inferences, adaptable systems use explicitly provided information. Since the presentation or output of these systems is adapted, standard user-centered ev
Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H
This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.
Kai N. Lee
Full Text Available Adaptive management is appraised as a policy implementation approach by examining its conceptual, technical, equity, and practical strengths and limitations. Three conclusions are drawn: (1 Adaptive management has been more influential, so far, as an idea than as a practical means of gaining insight into the behavior of ecosystems utilized and inhabited by humans. (2 Adaptive management should be used only after disputing parties have agreed to an agenda of questions to be answered using the adaptive approach; this is not how the approach has been used. (3 Efficient, effective social learning, of the kind facilitated by adaptive management, is likely to be of strategic importance in governing ecosystems as humanity searches for a sustainable economy.
In this report we describe the concept of adaptive noise canceling, an alternative method of estimating signals corrupted by additive noise of interference. The method uses 'primary' input containing the corrupted signal and a 'reference' input containing noise correlated in some unknown way with the primary noise, the reference input is adaptively filtered and subtracted from the primary input to obtain the signal estimate. Adaptive filtering before subtraction allows the treatment of inputs that are deterministic or stochastic, stationary or time variable. When the reference input is free of signal and certain other conditions are met then noise in the primary input can be essentially eliminated without signal distortion. It is further shown that the adaptive filter also acts as notch filter. Simulated results illustrate the usefulness of the adaptive noise canceling technique.
Full Text Available Studying the member states' constitutional choice of European decision rules most power index analyses concentrate on the relative decisiveness of member states in the Council of Minister. However, this emphasis has two shortcomings: First, it ignores the interaction between the Commission, the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament which provides multi-cameral decision making for European legislation. Second, although relative decisiveness is applied to the measurement of the member states' (expected distribution of legislative gains, it does not take into account the member states' expectation of the extent of gains depending on their absolute inclusiveness. In this article we present a model of member states' constitutional choice of European decision rules with regard to the two notions of power: actors' relative decisiveness and their absolute inclusiveness in decision making. We present an index to measure inclusiveness and we apply our concept to European multi-cameral procedures. Hereby, we give an account for the member states' recent reforms of legislative procedures.
Mimbs, Scott M.
The goal of a Quality Management System (QMS) as specified in ISO 9001 and AS9100 is to provide assurance to the customer that end products meet specifications. Measuring devices, often called measuring and test equipment (MTE), are used to provide the evidence of product conformity to specified requirements. Unfortunately, processes that employ MTE can become a weak link to the overall QMS if proper attention is not given to the measurement process design, capability, and implementation. Documented "decision rules" establish the requirements to ensure measurement processes provide the measurement data that supports the needs of the QMS. Measurement data are used to make the decisions that impact all areas of technology. Whether measurements support research, design, production, or maintenance, ensuring the data supports the decision is crucial. Measurement data quality can be critical to the resulting consequences of measurement-based decisions. Historically, most industries required simplistic, one-size-fits-all decision rules for measurements. One-size-fits-all rules in some cases are not rigorous enough to provide adequate measurement results, while in other cases are overly conservative and too costly to implement. Ideally, decision rules should be rigorous enough to match the criticality of the parameter being measured, while being flexible enough to be cost effective. The goal of a decision rule is to ensure that measurement processes provide data with a sufficient level of quality to support the decisions being made - no more, no less. This paper discusses the basic concepts of providing measurement-based evidence that end products meet specifications. Although relevant to all measurement-based conformance tests, the target audience is the MTE end-user, which is anyone using MTE other than calibration service providers. Topics include measurement fundamentals, the associated decision risks, verifying conformance to specifications, and basic measurement
Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi
The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments.
Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J; Beersma, J.J.; Middelkoop, H.; J. C. J. Kwadijk
Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static 'endpoint' projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on wat...
We argue for clear separation of the exchange problem from the exchange paradox to avoid confusion about the subject matter of these two distinct problems. The exchange problem in its current format belongs to the domain of optimal decision making—it doesn't make any sense as a game of competition. But it takes just a tiny modification in the statement of the problem to breathe new life into it and make it a practicable and meaningful game of competition. In this paper, we offer an explanation for paradoxical priors and discuss adaptive strategies for both the house and the player in the restated exchange problem.
Stieglitz, Nils; Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Becker, Markus C.
Research summary: We address conflicting claims and mixed empirical findings about adaptation as a response to increased environmental dynamism. We disentangle distinct dimensions of environmental dynamism—the direction, magnitude, and frequency of change—and identify how selection shapes adaptive...... responses to these dimensions. Our results show how frequent directional changes undermine the value of exploration and decisively shift performance advantages to inert organizations that restrict exploration. In contrast, increased environmental variance rewards exploration. Our results also show that...... opportunities is to identify and to focus on strategic actions whose payoffs on average are high, independent of environmental volatility. Low levels of exploration and long-term strategic focus are preferred strategies in these circumstances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....
Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It
Full Text Available This study tested the prediction derived from the evolutionary psychological analysis of jealousy that men and women selecting the adaptively primary infidelity type (i.e., female sexual and male emotional infidelity, respectively in a forced-choice response format need to engage in less elaborate decision strategies than men and women selecting the adaptively secondary infidelity type (i.e., male sexual and female emotional infidelity, respectively. Unknown to the participants, decision times were registered as an index of the elaborateness of their decision strategies. The results clearly support the prediction. Implications and limitations of the present findings are discussed.
Bayes'theorem is named after the Reverend Thomas Bayes who proposed the idea in the 18th century.It has been adapted by scientists for many different applications.One of the applications is clinical trials,where decisions are guided by clinical expertise as well as by data,especially in early phases.This paper reviews Bayes' theorem,decision theory and their applications in clinical trials.
Yao, Ruojun; Ma, Guangwen
Combo-biding is uncertain game-collaborative with uncertainty,and decision maker's experience is fuzzy.Gameoptimizing of combo-biding can be translated into fuzzy-chance- restriction programming according to Fuzzy Bernardo Methed with a view to creditability measure of fuzzy occurrence.The method can adapt itself to game-collaborative decision-making of combo-biding in allusion to different gaol.
Full Text Available The way in which the social subjects take decisions, the interactions established between these, the web of social institutions and rules, the architecture of the power relationships between the various “points of social coagulation” have as a foundation a complex set of determinants, in which the “pure” economic factors have an important, but not unique role. Thus, this paper intends to draft a possible analytical framework, capable of allowing the stress of some existing connections between the cultural variables, the social actions and the role of the public power. Heavy indebted to OLSON and NOZICK, the starting point is made out by a version of the mandate theory, within the way in which society, as a whole, as well as its individual components, delegates a certain set of social responsibilities to the public authorities, based on some social utility functions, which include the characteristics of the dominant cultural model. Part I of the paper deals with the elements of the theoretical foundation, elements resumed by a set of critical postulates and a special definition of state as the dominant agency in a social space and also of the negotiation/parallel associations. Part II is an attempt to examine some empirical evidences in the favor of some results derived from this foundation. The main conclusion of the paper could be resumed by the idea that trying to describe the interactions between state and society without taking into the account the characteristics of the cultural paradigm is equivalent to talk about Hamlet without mentioning the prince of Denmark.
The court applies the criteria of the reasonable doctor and common practice in order to consider the behaviour of a defendant physician. The meaning of our demand that the doctor expects that his or her acts or omissions will bring about certain implications is that, according to the present circumstances and subject to the limited knowledge of the common practice, the course of certain events or situations in the future may be assumed in spite of the fog of uncertainty which surrounds us. The miracles and wonders of creation are concealed from us, and we are not aware of the way and the nature of our bodily functioning. Therefore, there seems to be no way to avoid mistakes, because in several cases the correct diagnosis cannot be determined even with the most advanced application of all information available. Doctors find it difficult to admit that they grope in the dark. They wish to form clear and accurate diagnoses for their patients. The fact that their profession is faced with innumerable and unavoidable risks and mistakes is hard to swallow, and many of them claim that in their everyday work this does not happen. They should not content themselves by changing their style. A radical metamorphosis is needed. They should not be tempted to formulate their diagnoses in 'neutral' statements in order to be on the safe side. Uncertainty should be accepted and acknowledged by the profession and by the public at large as a human phenomenon, as an integral part of any human decision, and as a clear characteristic of any legal or medical diagnosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Barfod, Michael Bruhn
of money are spent on examinations of transport infrastructure projects, such as traffic model calculations, environmental impact assessments (EIA), and public hearings, the results mainly express the outcome of the examinations in monetary terms in form of e.g. a benefit-cost rate (B/C-rate). This thesis...... depends to a high degree on subjective preferences stated by the decision-makers as the methodology deals with impacts (or criteria) that are difficult to quantify or assign with a monetary value. As a result of this an examination process is proposed that can guide the decision-makers through...... in the decision process. The first contribution of this Ph.D. study is a framework of MCDA techniques to be used in decision processes. Depending on which type of persons that is to be involved in the decision process different assessment techniques are proposed. Two main modes are in this respect relevant...
Culbreth, Adam J; Westbrook, Andrew; Daw, Nathaniel D; Botvinick, Matthew; Barch, Deanna M
Individuals with schizophrenia have a diminished ability to use reward history to adaptively guide behavior. However, tasks traditionally used to assess such deficits often rely on multiple cognitive and neural processes, leaving etiology unresolved. In the current study, we adopted recent computational formalisms of reinforcement learning to distinguish between model-based and model-free decision-making in hopes of specifying mechanisms associated with reinforcement-learning dysfunction in schizophrenia. Under this framework, decision-making is model-free to the extent that it relies solely on prior reward history, and model-based if it relies on prospective information such as motivational state, future consequences, and the likelihood of obtaining various outcomes. Model-based and model-free decision-making was assessed in 33 schizophrenia patients and 30 controls using a 2-stage 2-alternative forced choice task previously demonstrated to discern individual differences in reliance on the 2 forms of reinforcement-learning. We show that, compared with controls, schizophrenia patients demonstrate decreased reliance on model-based decision-making. Further, parameter estimates of model-based behavior correlate positively with IQ and working memory measures, suggesting that model-based deficits seen in schizophrenia may be partially explained by higher-order cognitive deficits. These findings demonstrate specific reinforcement-learning and decision-making deficits and thereby provide valuable insights for understanding disordered behavior in schizophrenia. (PsycINFO Database Record
Full Text Available Tirana has recently experienced changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures and occurrence of extreme weather events. Such events – in combination with a rapid increase of urban areas and impermeable cement covering the natural soil in the city – have caused increased flooding, riverside erosion, delayed traffic, increased spending for cooling during the summer, increased need for health services, and an urgent need to plan the city smartly. Tirana is preparing a set of Climate Change Adaptation Actions in order to manage the posed risks and adapt to climate change. The city administration should integrate climate change adaptation in their management and planning processes. This exercise was prepared by using the Climate Compass tool and included the vulnerability assessment of different sectors in the city, evaluated the risks posed to vulnerable target groups and proposed feasible adaptation options. It outlines mostly actions to be taken to manage risks and build climate resilience across essential public infrastructure and services. Such actions would require better land use planning to maintain – and where possible increase – the natural areas and leave the natural soil undisturbed. Key to success is integrating adaptation concepts into the city planning and development investments. The result is a novel approach and guidance to better integrate adaptation concepts in city planning and new technologies to prevent heat waves, flood risks in the city, etc.Administrators of the Tirana Municipality should keep in mind and integrate the climate change adaptationactions into daily planning and decision making for several sectors including urban planning, transport, public services, water infrastructure, emergency response, etc. in order to ensure sustainable development for the city.
Moe, N.; Oefverholm, E. [NUTEK, Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Owe [EKAN Gruppen (Sweden); Froste, H. [Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Stockholm (Sweden)
Energy companies, municipalities, property companies, firms of consultants, environmental groups and individuals are examples of players working locally to shape environmentally adapted energy systems. These players have needed information making them better able to make decisions on cost-efficient, environmentally-adapted energy systems. This book answers many of the questions they have put. The volume is mainly based on Swedish handbooks produced by the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development, NUTEK, together with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. These handbooks have been used in conjunction with municipal energy planning, local Agenda 21 work, to provide a basis for deciding on concrete local energy systems. The contents in brief: -The book throws new light on the concept of energy efficiency; -A section on the environment compares how air-polluting emissions vary with different methods of energy production; -A section contains more than 40 ideas for measures which can be profitable, reduce energy consumption and the impact on the environment all at the same time; -The book gives concrete examples of new, alternative and environmentally-adapted local energy systems. More efficient use of energy is included as a possible change of energy system; -The greatest emphasis is laid upon alternative energy systems for heating. It may be heating in a house, block of flats, office building or school; -Finally, there are examples of environmentally-adapted local energy planning.
Darainy, Mohammad; Vahdat, Shahabeddin; Ostry, David J
Motor learning often involves situations in which the somatosensory targets of movement are, at least initially, poorly defined, as for example, in learning to speak or learning the feel of a proper tennis serve. Under these conditions, motor skill acquisition presumably requires perceptual as well as motor learning. That is, it engages both the progressive shaping of sensory targets and associated changes in motor performance. In the present study, we test the idea that perceptual learning alters somatosensory function and in so doing produces changes to human motor performance and sensorimotor adaptation. Subjects in these experiments undergo perceptual training in which a robotic device passively moves the subject's arm on one of a set of fan-shaped trajectories. Subjects are required to indicate whether the robot moved the limb to the right or the left and feedback is provided. Over the course of training both the perceptual boundary and acuity are altered. The perceptual learning is observed to improve both the rate and extent of learning in a subsequent sensorimotor adaptation task and the benefits persist for at least 24 h. The improvement in the present studies varies systematically with changes in perceptual acuity and is obtained regardless of whether the perceptual boundary shift serves to systematically increase or decrease error on subsequent movements. The beneficial effects of perceptual training are found to be substantially dependent on reinforced decision-making in the sensory domain. Passive-movement training on its own is less able to alter subsequent learning in the motor system. Overall, this study suggests perceptual learning plays an integral role in motor learning.
-making process were added with the intent of clarifying the tool’s purpose. Information about the risks and benefits according to risk levels was added to the Decision Boxes, to try to ease the adaptation of the information to individual patients. Conclusion Results will guide the development of the eight remaining Decision Boxes. A future study will evaluate the effect of Decision Boxes on the integration of evidence-based and shared decision making principles in clinical practice.
Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.
This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce
McClelland-Bane, Randy; Van Randwyk, Jamie A.; Carathimas, Anthony G.; Thomas, Eric D.
This report describes the results of a two-year LDRD funded by the Differentiating Technologies investment area. The project investigated the use of countermeasures in protecting computer networks as well as how current countermeasures could be changed in order to adapt with both evolving networks and evolving attackers. The work involved collaboration between Sandia employees and students in the Sandia - California Center for Cyber Defenders (CCD) program. We include an explanation of the need for adaptive countermeasures, a description of the architecture we designed to provide adaptive countermeasures, and evaluations of the system.
Adaptive optics is a technology enhancing the visual performance of an optical system by correcting its optical aberrations. Adaptive optics have already enabled several breakthroughs in the field of visual sciences, such as improvement of visual acuity in normal and diseased eyes beyond physiologic limits, and the correction of presbyopia. Adaptive optics technology also provides high-resolution, in vivo imaging of the retina that may eventually help to detect the onset of retinal conditions at an early stage and provide better assessment of treatment efficacy.
Frühwirth, R; Vanlaer, Pascal
Vertex fitting frequently has to deal with both mis-associated tracks and mis-measured track errors. A robust, adaptive method is presented that is able to cope with contaminated data. The method is formulated as an iterative re-weighted Kalman filter. Annealing is introduced to avoid local minima in the optimization. For the initialization of the adaptive filter a robust algorithm is presented that turns out to perform well in a wide range of applications. The tuning of the annealing schedule and of the cut-off parameter is described, using simulated data from the CMS experiment. Finally, the adaptive property of the method is illustrated in two examples.
Kjer Kaltoft, Mette; Dowie, Jack
’Evidence-based Health Care via Multi-Criteria Decision Analytic decision support: a Danish case study......’Evidence-based Health Care via Multi-Criteria Decision Analytic decision support: a Danish case study...
Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...
Williams, Byron K.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Breininger, David R.
The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.
Suitable for advanced graduate students and researchers in mathematical statistics and decision theory, this title presents an account of the concepts and a treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures affective decision making and has revealed decision making impairments across a wide range of eating disorders. This study aimed to investigate affective decision making in severely obese individuals.
Bonnichsen, Lars Frydendal; Probst, Christian W.
Modern computer systems are increasingly complex, with ever changing bottlenecks. This makes it difficult to ensure consistent performance when porting software, or even running it. Adaptivity, ie, switching between program variations, and dynamic recompilation have been suggested as solutions. B...
Kovačević, Branko; Milosavljević, Milan
“Adaptive Digital Filters” presents an important discipline applied to the domain of speech processing. The book first makes the reader acquainted with the basic terms of filtering and adaptive filtering, before introducing the field of advanced modern algorithms, some of which are contributed by the authors themselves. Working in the field of adaptive signal processing requires the use of complex mathematical tools. The book offers a detailed presentation of the mathematical models that is clear and consistent, an approach that allows everyone with a college level of mathematics knowledge to successfully follow the mathematical derivations and descriptions of algorithms. The algorithms are presented in flow charts, which facilitates their practical implementation. The book presents many experimental results and treats the aspects of practical application of adaptive filtering in real systems, making it a valuable resource for both undergraduate and graduate students, and for all others interested in m...
Radwan, Jacek; Babik, Wiesław
The amount and nature of genetic variation available to natural selection affect the rate, course and outcome of evolution. Consequently, the study of the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change has occupied biologists for decades, but progress has been hampered by the lack of resolution and the absence of a genome-level perspective. Technological advances in recent years should now allow us to answer many long-standing questions about the nature of adaptation. The data gathered so far are beginning to challenge some widespread views of the way in which natural selection operates at the genomic level. Papers in this Special Feature of Proceedings of the Royal Society B illustrate various aspects of the broad field of adaptation genomics. This introductory article sets up a context and, on the basis of a few selected examples, discusses how genomic data can advance our understanding of the process of adaptation.
Gordon, D F
The goal of this research is to develop agents that are adaptive and predictable and timely. At first blush, these three requirements seem contradictory. For example, adaptation risks introducing undesirable side effects, thereby making agents' behavior less predictable. Furthermore, although formal verification can assist in ensuring behavioral predictability, it is known to be time-consuming. Our solution to the challenge of satisfying all three requirements is the following. Agents have finite-state automaton plans, which are adapted online via evolutionary learning (perturbation) operators. To ensure that critical behavioral constraints are always satisfied, agents' plans are first formally verified. They are then reverified after every adaptation. If reverification concludes that constraints are violated, the plans are repaired. The main objective of this paper is to improve the efficiency of reverification after learning, so that agents have a sufficiently rapid response time. We present two solutions: ...
Andersen, Torben Juul; Hallin, Carina Antonia
Contemporary organizations operate under turbulent business conditions and must adapt their strategies to ongoing changes. This article argues that sustainable organizational performance is achieved when top management directs and coordinates interactive processes anchored in emerging organizatio......Contemporary organizations operate under turbulent business conditions and must adapt their strategies to ongoing changes. This article argues that sustainable organizational performance is achieved when top management directs and coordinates interactive processes anchored in emerging...... experiential insights from the fast response processes can be aggregated systematically from frontline employees and fed into the slow process of reasoning. When the fast and slow processes interact they form a dynamic system that adapts organizational activities to the changing conditions which identifies...... the adaptive organization....
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) Inventory contains descriptions of past and present CDS projects across the Federal Government. It includes Federal projects,...
Deco, Gustavo; Rolls, Edmund T.; Romo, Ranulfo
During decision making between sequential stimuli, the first stimulus must be held in memory and then compared with the second. Here, we show that in systems that encode the stimuli by their firing rate, neurons can use synaptic facilitation not only to remember the first stimulus during the delay but during the presentation of the second stimulus so that they respond to a combination of the first and second stimuli, as has been found for “partial differential” neurons recorded in the ventral premotor cortex during vibrotactile flutter frequency decision making. Moreover, we show that such partial differential neurons provide important input to a subsequent attractor decision-making network that can then compare this combination of the first and second stimuli with inputs from other neurons that respond only to the second stimulus. Thus, both synaptic facilitation and neuronal attractor dynamics can account for sequential decision making in such systems in the brain. PMID:20360555
... from nurses, social workers, patient representatives, members of the ethics committee, and chaplains. Medical decision-making is a ... can provide nutrition and hydration through intravenous (IV) administration or by putting a tube in the stomach. © ...
Department of Housing and Urban Development — This site contains substantive and precedential decisions issued by the Office of Administrative Law Judges. The site does not contain subsequent rulings or...
This is the first comprehensive book to present, in English, the multicriteria methodology for decision aiding In the foreword the distinctive features and main ideas of the European School of MCDA are outlined The twelve chapters are essentially expository in nature, but scholarly in treatment Some questions, which are too often neglected in the literature on decision theory, such as how is a decision made, who are the actors, what is a decision aiding model, how to define the set of alternatives, are discussed Examples are used throughout the book to illustrate the various concepts Ways to model the consequences of each alternative and building criteria taking into account the inevitable imprecisions, uncertainties and indeterminations are described and illustrated The three classical operational approaches of MCDA synthesis in one criterion (including MAUT), synthesis by outranking relations, interactive local judgements, are studied This methodology tries to be a theoretical or intellectual framework dire...
Dunn, John A., Jr.; Glover, Robert H.
Many operational and some tactical information needs can be well supported with current information technology and campus-based data, but information support for many tactical and most strategic decisions may be aided by interinstitutional collaboration. (Author/MSE)
Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures.Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice.Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics.Presents different perspectives and cont...
SZWABE Andrzej; SCHORR Andreas; HAUCK Franz J.; KASSLER Andreas J.
Dynamic adaptation of multimedia content is seen as an important feature of next generation networks and pervasive systems enabling terminals and applications to adapt to changes in e.g. context, access network, and available Quality-of-Service(QoS) due to mobility of users, devices or sessions. We present the architecture of a multimedia stream adaptation service which enables communication between terminals having heterogeneous hardware and software capabilities and served by heterogeneous networks. The service runs on special content adaptation nodes which can be placed at any location within the network. The flexible structure of our architecture allows using a variety of different adaptation engines. A generic transcoding engine is used to change the codec of streams. An MPEG-21 Digital Item Adaptation (DIA) based transformation engine allows adjusting the data rate of scalable media streams. An intelligent decision-taking engine implements adaptive flow control which takes into account current network QoS parameters and congestion information. Measurements demonstrate the quality gains achieved through adaptive congestion control mechanisms under conditions typical for a heterogeneous network.
Peter Christiaan van Veelen
two flood prone waterfront cases in Rotterdam. APM is a structured, iterative approach based on defining the conditions under which policy objectives are no longer attainable and adaptation is required, and the assessment of sequences of adaptation actions. It enables policy makers to explore and develop adaptive strategiesThe case study research in two flood prone urbanised areas in Rotterdam showed that Rotterdam’s land elevation policy for new building plots is expensive and offers no solution to reduce the flood risk of existing homes and businesses in the area. In this study, two alternative solutions (water robust and keeping water out were developed and tested for spatial integration, (cost effectiveness and opportunities for creating added value. The Feijenoord case shows that a district-wide flood protection strategy provides the most beneficial solution and opens up opportunities for capitalising on investments in waterfront development and improvements of the urban realm. The Noordereiland case shows a more diverse portfolio of adaptation responses, although there are only a few combinations of adaptation responses that are complementary to deal with change in the long run. A potential adaptation strategy for the Noordereiland is based on sequencing property level protection (wet-proofing and dry-proofing adaptation measures, followed by the development of a permanent or temporary floodwall strategy. However, this strategy offers few opportunities to link with spatial dynamics and to create added value.Based on case study research, this research concludes that the APM is an effective tool to evaluate and select appropriate adaptation measures. In particular, the value of this method is that it helps to bridge the gap between highly uncertain long-term climate change effects and the short-term decision making horizons of urban planning and development. Additionally, the method helps to better grasp the timing of adaptation and develop a wide portfolio of
We describe an approach to domain adaptation that is appropriate exactly in the case when one has enough ``target'' data to do slightly better than just using only ``source'' data. Our approach is incredibly simple, easy to implement as a preprocessing step (10 lines of Perl!) and outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on a range of datasets. Moreover, it is trivially extended to a multi-domain adaptation problem, where one has data from a variety of different domains.
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to illustrate in which cases the translators use the adaptation when they are confronted with a term related to sociocultural aspects. We will discuss the notions of equivalence and adaptation and their limits in the translation. Some samples from Arte TV news and from the American film Shrek translated into Polish, German and French will be provided as a support for this article.
Golusky, John M. (Inventor); Muldoon, Kelly P. (Inventor)
Methods and systems for adaptable DC offset correction are provided. An exemplary adaptable DC offset correction system evaluates an incoming baseband signal to determine an appropriate DC offset removal scheme; removes a DC offset from the incoming baseband signal based on the appropriate DC offset scheme in response to the evaluated incoming baseband signal; and outputs a reduced DC baseband signal in response to the DC offset removed from the incoming baseband signal.
Combining the two statistical techniques of network sampling and adaptive sampling, this book illustrates the advantages of using them in tandem to effectively capture sparsely located elements in unknown pockets. It shows how network sampling is a reliable guide in capturing inaccessible entities through linked auxiliaries. The text also explores how adaptive sampling is strengthened in information content through subsidiary sampling with devices to mitigate unmanageable expanding sample sizes. Empirical data illustrates the applicability of both methods.
Full Text Available This paper aims to improve the understanding of the process used by students when they are faced with a decision regarding their academic future. In order to achieve this objective a survey was conducted and the student goals and expectations were analysed. The conclusions show that an important number of students are interested in a master programme and their decision to choose a specific program is based on several important factors.
Flight crews must make decisions and take action when systems fail or emergencies arise during flight. These situations may involve high stress. Full-missiion flight simulation studies have shown that crews differ in how effectively they cope in these circumstances, judged by operational errors and crew coordination. The present study analyzed the problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains fitting three different personality profiles. Our goal was to identify more and less effective strategies that could serve as the basis for crew selection or training. Methods: Twelve 3-member B-727 crews flew a 5-leg mission simulated flight over 1 1/2 days. Two legs included 4 abnormal events that required decisions during high workload periods. Transcripts of videotapes were analyzed to describe decision making strategies. Crew performance (errors and coordination) was judged on-line and from videotapes by check airmen. Results: Based on a median split of crew performance errors, analyses to date indicate a difference in general strategy between crews who make more or less errors. Higher performance crews showed greater situational awareness - they responded quickly to cues and interpreted them appropriately. They requested more decision relevant information and took into account more constraints. Lower performing crews showed poorer situational awareness, planning, constraint sensitivity, and coordination. The major difference between higher and lower performing crews was that poorer crews made quick decisions and then collected information to confirm their decision. Conclusion: Differences in overall crew performance were associated with differences in situational awareness, information management, and decision strategy. Captain personality profiles were associated with these differences, a finding with implications for crew selection and training.
Economic research has documented many economic affects of offspring gender on parental behavior. However, an open question exists as to whether offspring gender has any influence on parental investment decision making. Specifically, I investigate whether female offspring have an impact on investment decisions with respect to stock and bondholding. Using a panel data set, I find that for male respondents, having only female offspring increases the probability of stockholding by over 17%. In co...
Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. The most important barrier for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through...... the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: The precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all...
Andersson, Kasper Grann
to parameterisation in the decision support systems of indoor/outdoor air exchange and time budgets, considering recommendations on data sources and regional implementation, as well as the novel reference person concept. Other needs for technological developments for the decision support systems are discussed....... An ongoing RTD activity supported by the European Commission deals with the practical implementation of the recently revised ICRP recommendations, e.g., through adaptation of the existing decision support systems ARGOS and RODOS. Examples are given of the outcome of this activity with respect...
We describe new heuristics to construct decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions from the point of view of length and coverage which are enough good. We use statistical test to find leaders among the heuristics. After that, we compare our results with optimal result obtained by dynamic programming algorithms. The average percentage of relative difference between length (coverage) of constructed and optimal rules is at most 6.89% (15.89%, respectively) for leaders which seems to be a promising result. © 2013 IEEE.
Steinberg, Alan N.; Bowman, Christopher L.
This paper presents concepts and an implementation scheme to improve information exploitation processes and products by adaptive discovery and processing of contextual information. Context is used in data fusion - and in inferencing in general - to provide expectations and to constrain processing. It also is used to infer or refine desired information ("problem variables") on the basis of other available information ("context variables"). Contextual exploitation becomes critical in several classes of inferencing problems in which traditional information sources do not provide sufficient resolution between entity states or when such states are poorly or incompletely modeled. An adaptive evidence-accrual inference method - adapted from developments in target recognition and scene understanding - is presented; whereby context variables are selected on the basis of (a) their utility in refining explicit problem variables, (b) the probability of evaluating these variables to within a given accuracy, given candidate system actions (data collection, mining or processing), and (c) the cost of such actions. The Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) Data Fusion Model, with its extension to dual Resource Management functions, has been adapted to accommodate adaptive information exploitation, to include adaptive context exploitation. The interplay of Data Fusion and Resource Management (DF&RM) functionality in exploiting contextual information is illustrated in terms of the dual-node DF&RM architecture. An important advance is in the integration of data mining methods for data search/discovery and for abductive model refinement.