WorldWideScience

Sample records for actuarial analysis

  1. Actuarial contributions to life table analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, E A

    1985-05-01

    The correct principles for the construction of life tables and more particularly select life tables were developed by actuaries in England in the first half of the 19th century. Actuaries explored the phenomenon of selection not only between the insured and annuitants but also in the general population, distinguishing among initial temporary selection, antiselection, and class selection. The conclusion was reached early that no such thing as an unselected population exists. Group life insurance experience among the actively employed has been shown to provide a more appropriate standard of expected mortality than general population death rates in studies of medical impairments and occupational hazards at ages under 65 years. Mortality rates derived from the Cancer Prevention Study can serve as a useful standard of expected mortality when the objective is determination of excess mortality compared with ostensibly healthy persons at ages 65 years and older.

  2. Actuarial and actual analysis of surgical results: empirical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunkemeier, G L; Anderson, R P; Starr, A

    2001-06-01

    This report validates the use of the Kaplan-Meier (actuarial) method of computing survival curves by comparing 12-year estimates published in 1978 with current assessments. It also contrasts cumulative incidence curves, referred to as "actual" analysis in the cardiac-related literature with Kaplan-Meier curves for thromboembolism and demonstrates that with the former estimate the percentage of events that will actually occur.

  3. Actuarial Studies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) from time to time conducts studies on various aspects of the Medicare and Medicaid...

  4. The relationship between alcohol and traffic accidents an actuarial analysis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelker, G.

    1970-01-01

    This analysis deals with the accident chances of the excessive drinkers, moderate drinkers and non-drinkers. The Swedish motor insurance results for total abstainers are compared to the average policyholders.

  5. Actuarial Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Bette

    1982-01-01

    Details are provided of a program on actuarial training developed at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Binghamton through the Department of Mathematical Sciences. An outline of its operation, including a few statistics on students in the program, is included. (MP)

  6. Actuarial Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Bette

    1982-01-01

    Details are provided of a program on actuarial training developed at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Binghamton through the Department of Mathematical Sciences. An outline of its operation, including a few statistics on students in the program, is included. (MP)

  7. An analysis of possible applications of fuzzy set theory to the actuarial credibility theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Karwowski, Waldemar

    1992-01-01

    In this work, we review the basic concepts of actuarial credibility theory from the point of view of introducing applications of the fuzzy set-theoretic method. We show how the concept of actuarial credibility can be modeled through the fuzzy set membership functions and how fuzzy set methods, especially fuzzy pattern recognition, can provide an alternative tool for estimating credibility.

  8. An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...... well-known risk measures under both schemes. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis and find that the relative performance of the two schemes depends on the chosen model parameter estimates....

  9. Long-term actuarial survivorship analysis of an interspinous stabilization system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sénégas, Jacques; Vital, Jean-Marc; Pointillart, Vincent; Mangione, Paolo

    2007-08-01

    In 1986, an interspinous dynamic stabilization system (the prototype of the current Wallis implant) was designed to stiffen unstable operated degenerate lumbar segments with a hard interspinous blocker to limit extension and a tension band around the spinous processes to secure the implant and limit flexion. Restoring physiological mechanical conditions to the treated level(s) while preserving some intervertebral mobility was intended to treat low-back pain related to degenerative instability without increasing stress forces in the adjacent segments. The procedure was easily reversible. If low back pain persisted or recurred, the device was removed and stability was achieved using fusion. The intermediate-term results were promising, but the long-term safety and efficacy of this dynamic interspinous stabilization device has not been previously documented. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital files of all the patients (n = 241) who had this dynamic stabilization system implanted between 1987 and 1995, contacting as many as possible to determine the actuarial survivorship of the system. In this manner, 142 of the 241 patients (58.9%) were contacted by telephone. The endpoints used for the survivorship analysis were 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal'. At 14 years follow-up, values of actuarial survivorship with 95% confidence interval were 75.9 +/- 8.3 and 81.3 +/- 6.8% for the endpoints 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal', respectively. There was no difference in survivorship of multiple-level implants with respect to single-level devices. Although the conclusions of the present study must be tempered by the 41% attrition rate, these findings support the long-term safety of this system, and possibly long-term protective action against adjacent-level degeneration by motion preservation. Outcomes at least equivalent to those of fusion were observed without the primary drawbacks of fusion.

  10. Pattern Analysis of an Actuarial Strategy for Computerized Diagnosis of Childhood Exceptionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Robert L.; McDermott, Paul A.

    1984-01-01

    The Multidimensional Actuarial Classification system, which consists of routines and decision making procedures applied to weighting of standardized psychometric, observational, and interview data, was used to classify 200 children (6-16 years old) referred for psychological evaluation. Seven distinct patterns emerged, supporting the approach's…

  11. Clinical versus actuarial judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawes, R M; Faust, D; Meehl, P E

    1989-03-31

    Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

  12. The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick

    2014-01-01

    The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

  13. The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick

    2014-01-01

    The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

  14. An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...

  15. The case for an actuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Patrick N

    2002-12-01

    The author describes the role of the actuary, the need for qualified actuaries and how to find them. Qualified actuarial help, in the form of a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA), is necessary to ensure the best outcome when setting annual premium rates and realistic budgets for self-funded group benefit plans.

  16. Actually, What Is an Actuary?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oudshoorn, Susan; Finkelstein, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The actuarial profession is described to provide secondary school mathematics teachers insights into how actuaries use mathematics in solving real life problems. Examples are provided involving compound interest, the probability of dying, and inflation with computer modeling. (MDH)

  17. Competence in Mathematics and Academic Achievement: An Analysis of Enrollees in the Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wamala, Robert; Maswere, Dyson W.; Mwanga, Yeko

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the role of prior grounding attained in mathematics in predicting the academic achievement of enrollees in Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science (BSAS). The investigation is based on administrative records of 240 BSAS enrollees at Makerere University, School of Statistics and Planning in the 2007-2009 cohorts. Students'…

  18. Survival Analysis and Actuarial Parameters of Sternechus subsignatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillermina Socías, María; Van Nieuwenhove, Guido; Murúa, María Gabriela; Willink, Eduardo; Liljesthröm, Gerardo Gustavo

    2016-04-01

    The soybean stalk weevil, Sternechus subsignatus Boheman 1836 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a very serious soybean pest in the Neotropical region. Both adults and larvae feed on soybean, causing significant yield losses. Adult survival was evaluated during three soybean growing seasons under controlled environmental conditions. A survival analysis was performed using a parametric survival fit approach in order to generate survival curves and obtain information that could help optimize integrated management strategies for this weevil pest. Sex of the weevils, crop season, fortnight in which weevils emerged, and their interaction were studied regarding their effect on adult survival. The results showed that females lived longer than males, but both genders were actually long-lived, reaching 224 and 176 d, respectively. Mean lifetime (l50) was 121.88±4.56 d for females and 89.58±2.72 d for males. Although variations were observed in adult longevities among emergence fortnights and soybean seasons, only in December and January fortnights of the 2007–2008 season and December fortnights of 2009–2010 did the statistically longest and shortest longevities occur, respectively. Survivorship data (lx) of adult females and males were fitted to the Weibull frequency distribution model. The survival curve was type I for both sexes, which indicated that mortality corresponded mostly to old individuals.

  19. Offering Lung Cancer Screening to High-Risk Medicare Beneficiaries Saves Lives and Is Cost-Effective: An Actuarial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyenson, Bruce S.; Henschke, Claudia I.; Yankelevitz, David F.; Yip, Rowena; Dec, Ellynne

    2014-01-01

    Background By a wide margin, lung cancer is the most significant cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. The incidence of lung cancer increases with age, and Medicare beneficiaries are often at increased risk. Because of its demonstrated effectiveness in reducing mortality, lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging will be covered without cost-sharing starting January 1, 2015, by nongrandfathered commercial plans. Medicare is considering coverage for lung cancer screening. Objective To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per life-year saved) of LDCT lung cancer screening of the Medicare population at high risk for lung cancer. Methods Medicare costs, enrollment, and demographics were used for this study; they were derived from the 2012 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiary files and were forecast to 2014 based on CMS and US Census Bureau projections. Standard life and health actuarial techniques were used to calculate the cost and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. The cost, incidence rates, mortality rates, and other parameters chosen by the authors were taken from actual Medicare data, and the modeled screenings are consistent with Medicare processes and procedures. Results Approximately 4.9 million high-risk Medicare beneficiaries would meet criteria for lung cancer screening in 2014. Without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average life expectancy of approximately 3 years. Based on our analysis, the average annual cost of LDCT lung cancer screening in Medicare is estimated to be $241 per person screened. LDCT screening for lung cancer in Medicare beneficiaries aged 55 to 80 years with a history of ≥30 pack-years of smoking and who had smoked within 15 years is low cost, at approximately $1 per member per month. This assumes that 50% of these patients were screened. Such screening is also highly cost-effective, at <$19,000 per life

  20. A multiple Markov switching model for actuarial use in South Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the smoothed inferences obtained from a univariate analysis of the variables. ... used for various actuarial applications, especially those involving long-term projections. ... financial projections, actuarial, stochastic model, time-series models ...

  1. Health insurance basic actuarial models

    CERN Document Server

    Pitacco, Ermanno

    2014-01-01

    Health Insurance aims at filling a gap in actuarial literature, attempting to solve the frequent misunderstanding in regards to both the purpose and the contents of health insurance products (and ‘protection products’, more generally) on the one hand, and the relevant actuarial structures on the other. In order to cover the basic principles regarding health insurance techniques, the first few chapters in this book are mainly devoted to the need for health insurance and a description of insurance products in this area (sickness insurance, accident insurance, critical illness covers, income protection, long-term care insurance, health-related benefits as riders to life insurance policies). An introduction to general actuarial and risk-management issues follows. Basic actuarial models are presented for sickness insurance and income protection (i.e. disability annuities). Several numerical examples help the reader understand the main features of pricing and reserving in the health insurance area. A short int...

  2. An actuarial analysis shows that offering lung cancer screening as an insurance benefit would save lives at relatively low cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyenson, Bruce S; Sander, Marcia S; Jiang, Yiding; Kahn, Howard; Mulshine, James L

    2012-04-01

    Lung cancer screening is not established as a public health practice, yet the results of a recent large randomized controlled trial showed that screening with low-dose spiral computed tomography reduces lung cancer mortality. Using actuarial models, this study estimated the costs and benefits of annual lung cancer screening offered as a commercial insurance benefit in the high-risk US population ages 50-64. Assuming current commercial reimbursement rates for treatment, we found that screening would cost about $1 per insured member per month in 2012 dollars. The cost per life-year saved would be below $19,000, an amount that compares favorably with screening for cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers. Our results suggest that commercial insurers should consider lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals to be high-value coverage and provide it as a benefit to people who are at least fifty years old and have a smoking history of thirty pack-years or more. We also believe that payers and patients should demand screening from high-quality, low-cost providers, thus helping set an example of efficient system innovation.

  3. Treatment referral for sex offenders based on clinical judgment versus actuarial risk assessment: match and analysis of mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smid, Wineke J; Kamphuis, Jan Henk; Wever, Edwin C; Van Beek, Daan

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Need Responsivity (RNR) principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2010) dictate that higher risk sex offenders should receive more intensive treatment. The present study investigates how clinically based treatment assignment relates to risk level in a sex offender sample from The Netherlands. Correlational analyses served to identify sources of mismatches: that is, variables differing significantly in their relation between treatment selection and risk level. Our study sample consisted of 194 convicted rapists and 214 convicted child molesters. All participants' criminal files were retrospectively coded in terms of the items of the STATIC-99R, PCL: SV, and SVR-20. A low to moderate correlation was observed between clinical treatment selection and actuarial risk levels. A substantial part of the sex offenders, especially child molesters, received overly intensive treatment and another substantial part, especially rapists, received treatment of lesser intensity than indicated by their risk levels. General violent and antisocial risk factors seemed to be underemphasized in the clinical evaluation of sex offenders, especially rapists. A negative attitude toward intervention was negatively associated with clinical treatment selection. It is concluded that clinical treatment selection leads to an insufficient match between risk level and treatment level and systematic use of validated structured risk assessment instruments is necessary to ensure optimal adherence to the risk principle.

  4. Application of Actuarial Modelling in Insurance Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Burcã Ana-Maria; Bãtrînca Ghiorghe

    2011-01-01

    In insurance industry, the financial stability of insurance companies represents an issue of vital importance. In order to maintain the financial stability and meet minimum regulatory requirements, actuaries apply actuarial modeling. Modeling has been at the center of actuarial science and of all the sciences from the beginning of their journey. In insurance industry, actuarial modeling creates a framework that allows actuaries to identify, understand, quantify and manage a wide range of risk...

  5. Application of Actuarial Modelling in Insurance Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Burcã Ana-Maria; Bãtrînca Ghiorghe

    2011-01-01

    In insurance industry, the financial stability of insurance companies represents an issue of vital importance. In order to maintain the financial stability and meet minimum regulatory requirements, actuaries apply actuarial modeling. Modeling has been at the center of actuarial science and of all the sciences from the beginning of their journey. In insurance industry, actuarial modeling creates a framework that allows actuaries to identify, understand, quantify and manage a wide range of risk...

  6. The Role and Importance of an Actuary in the Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Zapart, Tomasz

    2013-01-01

    Actuary on the basis of the tasks arising from the audit process of an insurance undertaking is obliged to submit their opinion on all activities of that establishment which could have an impact on the financial position of an insurance undertaking and consequently affect your ability to meet long-term liabilities of the undertaking by providing professional analysis of the internal and external insurance for the governing bodies. The knowledge and perspective on actuarial topi...

  7. How Fair Is Actuarial Fairness?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landes, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    in exchange for the payment of premi- ums. In the insurance industry, the concept of actuarial fairness serves to establish what could be adequate, fair premiums. Accordingly, premiums paid by policyholders should match as closely as possible their risk exposure (i.e. their expected losses). Such premiums...... are the product of the probabilities of losses and the expected losses. This article presents a discussion of the fairness of actuarial fairness through three steps: (1) defining the concept based on its formulation within the insurance industry; (2) determining in which sense it may be about fairness; and (3......) raising some objections to the actual fairness of actu- arial fairness. The necessity of a normative evaluation of actuarial fairness is justified by the influence of the concept on the current reforms of public insurance systems and the fact that it highlights the question of the repartition of the gains...

  8. A look inside the actuarial black box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Math, S E; Youngerman, H

    1992-12-01

    Hospital executives often rely on actuaries (and their "black boxes") to determine self-insurance program liabilities and funding contributions. Typically, the hospital supplies the actuary with a myriad of statistics, and eventually the hospital receives a liability estimate and recommended funding level. The mysterious actuarial calculations that occur in between data reporting and receipt of the actuary's report are akin to a black box--a complicated device whose internal mechanism is hidden from or mysterious to the user.

  9. Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Sibillo, Marilena

    2014-01-01

    The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians working in the actuarial and financial fields is producing numerous meaningful scientific results. This volume, comprising a series of four-page papers, gathers new ideas relating to mathematical and statistical methods in the actuarial sciences and finance. The book covers a variety of topics of interest from both theoretical and applied perspectives, including: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit-scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelligent financial trading systems; mixture normality approaches; Monte Carlo-based methodologies; multicriteria methods; nonlinear parameter estimation techniques; nonlinear threshold models; particle swarm optimization; performance measures; portfolio optimization; pricing methods for structured and non-structured derivatives; r...

  10. Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pizzi, Claudio

    2014-01-01

    The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians has been shown to be an effective approach for dealing with actuarial, insurance and financial problems, both from an academic perspective and from an operative one. The collection of original papers presented in this volume pursues precisely this purpose. It covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial, insurance and finance fields, all treated in the light of the successful cooperation between the above two quantitative approaches. The papers published in this volume present theoretical and methodological contributions and their applications to real contexts. With respect to the theoretical and methodological contributions, some of the considered areas of investigation are: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelli...

  11. 75 FR 63505 - Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-15

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Renewal of Advisory Committee. ] SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries announces the renewal of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. FOR...

  12. Computational Intelligence. Mortality Models for the Actuary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemse, W.J.

    2001-01-01

    This thesis applies computational intelligence to the field of actuarial (insurance) science. In particular, this thesis deals with life insurance where mortality modelling is important. Actuaries use ancient models (mortality laws) from the nineteenth century, for example Gompertz' and Makeham's la

  13. Modern actuarial risk theory: using R

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaas, R.; Goovaerts, M.; Dhaene, J.; Denuit, M.

    2008-01-01

    Modern Actuarial Risk Theory -- Using R contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus

  14. Market-consistent actuarial valuation

    CERN Document Server

    Wüthrich, Mario V

    2016-01-01

    This is the third edition of this well-received textbook, presenting powerful methods for measuring insurance liabilities and assets in a consistent way, with detailed mathematical frameworks that lead to market-consistent values for liabilities. Topics covered are stochastic discounting with deflators, valuation portfolio in life and non-life insurance, probability distortions, asset and liability management, financial risks, insurance technical risks, and solvency. Including updates on recent developments and regulatory changes under Solvency II, this new edition of Market-Consistent Actuarial Valuation also elaborates on different risk measures, providing a revised definition of solvency based on industry practice, and presents an adapted valuation framework which takes a dynamic view of non-life insurance reserving risk.

  15. 76 FR 17762 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-31

    ... actuarial experience means actuarial experience (1) involving participation in making determinations that... means responsible actuarial experience involving valuations of the liabilities of pension plans, wherein.... These regulations define certified responsible actuarial experience to mean responsible actuarial...

  16. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... actuarial opinion means a signed declaration in which a qualified actuary states that the assumptions used... policy experience, if any, and reasonable expectations. (b) Qualified actuary means— (1) A member in good standing of the American Academy of Actuaries; or (2) A person who has otherwise demonstrated his or...

  17. 26 CFR 301.6059-1 - Periodic report of actuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Periodic report of actuary. 301.6059-1 Section...-1 Periodic report of actuary. (a) In general. The actuarial report described in this section must be... funding deficiency (as defined in section 412(a)) to zero, (4) A statement by the enrolled actuary...

  18. 20 CFR 901.2 - Eligibility to perform actuarial services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... 901.2 Section 901.2 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS.... (a) Enrolled actuary. Subject to the standards of performance set forth in subpart C of this part, any individual who is an enrolled actuary as defined in § 901.1(g) may perform actuarial...

  19. 巨灾期权的保险精算定价探析%Analysis of Actuarial Pricing for Catastrophe Insurance Options

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢世清; 梅云云

    2011-01-01

    巨灾期权定价理论的滞后是阻碍其市场发展的重要原因之一。利用保险精算原理为巨灾期权定价具有一定优势,并可以借鉴寿险精算中的生命表技术来编制巨灾指数分布表。本文首先从保险精算的角度推导出了巨灾期权的理论定价公式;其次利用巨灾指数分布表对巨灾期权进行了保险精算实证定价;最后比较分析了巨灾指数分布表和寿险生命表。%The lagging pricing models of catastrophe insurance options have hindered the market development. This paper argues that the actuarial pricing method has some advantages and proposes that the preparation of catastrophe index distribution table can learn f

  20. Actuarial Analysis of Social Security Pension Fund Balance%社会保障养老金平衡的精算研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭翠; 柳向东; 王蕙

    2011-01-01

    The social security pension balance problem is one of the popular topics. On the basis of part accumulation system , overall social planing and individual account, using the standard of China's current actual situation, survival theory and cash flow method , modifies the existing social security model and establishes a new social security pension balance actuarial model are studied. Furthermore, the social security pension balance and fund gap are discussed.%社会保障养老金的平衡问题是社会的一个热点问题之一.在部分积累制的基础上,分别对社会统筹账户和个人账户进行研究.以中国目前实际情况为标准,运用生存理论和现金流方法,对已有社会保障模型进行修改,建立一个新的社会保障养老金平衡的精算模型.并在该模型下,对社会保障养老金平衡和基金缺口进行了讨论.

  1. Choosing the 'best' plan in a health insurance exchange: actuarial value tells only part of the story.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lore, Ryan; Gabel, Jon R; McDevitt, Roland; Slover, Michael

    2012-08-01

    In the health insurance exchanges that will come online in 2014, consumers will be able to compare health plans with respect to actuarial value, or the percentage of health care costs that a plan would pay for a standard population. This analysis illustrates the out-of-pocket costs that might result from plans with various plan designs and actuarial values. We find that average out-of-pocket expense declines as actuarial values rise, but two plans with similar actuarial values can produce very different outcomes for a given person. The overall affordability of a plan also will be influenced by age rating, income-related premium subsidies, and out-of-pocket subsidies. Actuarial value is a useful starting point for selecting a plan, but it does not pinpoint which plan will produce the best overall value for a particular person.

  2. The gender profile of the South African actuarial profession | Ramjee ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The gender profile of the South African actuarial profession. ... the perception of the profession and the experiences of women in the classroom and workplace. Keywords: Actuarial science; exemption rates; gender diversity; persistency ...

  3. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  4. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  5. Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

  6. Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

  7. 26 CFR 300.7 - Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. 300.7... AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.7 Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the initial enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board for the Enrollment...

  8. Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frese, Richard C

    2014-11-01

    To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

  9. 20 CFR 200.9 - Selection of members of Actuarial Advisory Committee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... actuaries to serve on an Actuarial Advisory Committee. This section describes how the two actuaries are selected. (b) Carrier actuary. One member of the Actuarial Advisory Committee shall be selected by... railroad mileage within the United States. (c) Railway labor actuary. The other member of the...

  10. Punishing the lemon: the ethics of actuarial fairness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Saurabh

    2012-12-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act rejects the notion that actuarial fairness is a normative ideal. The author discusses the ethics of actuarial fairness and attempts to draw a distinction between actuarial fairness and moral fairness. The ethics of wellness programs are discussed with both actuarial fairness and moral fairness in mind. The potential tension between physicians and patients in the zealous pursuit of healthy goals is described. Finally, the logical end point of actuarial fairness with the widespread availability of genetic information is highlighted. Copyright © 2012 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Gender and Extended Actuarial Functions in Pension Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Špirková

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings analysis of the impact of a ban on the use of gender in insurance, with special stress on pension annuity, according to the requirements of the European Court of Justice. The paper brings a state-of-theart overview of known and extended actuarial functions which relate to modeling of a premium of endowment, term life insurance and pension annuity. Moreover, the amounts of the pension annuities payable thly per year in a model of the third pillar pension are modeled and analyzed for different interest rates using life tables for both genders and unisex.

  12. Internship at Taylor Fry Consulting Actuaries

    OpenAIRE

    Kierkels, Bram Joseph Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais As the final part of the master degree, I started my internship on 25 Febru- ary 2013 at Taylor Fry Consulting Actuaries. During the internship my work mainly involved analyzing the outstanding workers compensation liabilities for self-insured clients. In this report I will describe the process of this anal- ysis. Throughout this report I will explain the procedures I used to value outstanding claims.

  13. Do actuaries believe in longevity deceleration?

    OpenAIRE

    Debonneuil, Edouard; Planchet, Frédéric; Loisel, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    As more and more people believe that significant life extensions may come soon, should commonly used future mortality assumptions be considered prudent? We find here that commonly used actuarial tables for annuitants – as well as the Lee-Carter model – do not extrapolate life expectancy at the same rate for future years as for past years; instead they produce some longevity deceleration. This is typically because their mortality improvements decrease after a certain age, and those age-specifi...

  14. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Reddy, T. A.

    2014-01-01

    An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.

  15. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen

    2016-01-01

    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence – an increase in death rate with advancing age – is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain...... the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32-year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment......, for individuals under two types of land-use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best-approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region...

  16. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen;

    2016-01-01

    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence – an increase in death rate with advancing age – is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain...... the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32-year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment......, for individuals under two types of land-use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best-approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region...

  17. 新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算分析%Actuarial Analysis of the Replacement Rate of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄锦英; 罗倩倩

    2011-01-01

    Based on the analysis of existing research literatures and the policy document about new rural endowment insurance which was put forward in September 2009,this paper tries to construct an actuarial model of endowment insurance replacement rate in order to make an empirical analysis of the replacement rate of new rural social endowment insurance.The result appears that the relationship between the payment years,payment level and the replacement rate level presents positive correlation.This paper also explores the reasons for the low level of replacement rate and the inefficiency of protection and finally puts forward some corresponding countermeasures in government subsidy,investment operations for individual account,payment methods,etc.%在分析已有研究文献的基础上,基于2009年9月出台的新型农村社会养老保险政策文件,依据相关规定和数据构建养老保险替代率精算模型,对新型农村社会养老保险替代率进行实证分析,测算出新制度下养老金缴费年限和缴费档次与替代率水平之间具有正向相关关系,探索新制度下养老金的替代率水平低及其预期保障力不足的深层次原因,并在政府补贴力度、个人账户投资运营以及缴费方式上提出相应的建议。

  18. Three essays on actuarial social security theory

    OpenAIRE

    Ventura Marco, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Esta tesis se centra en dos de los instrumentos básicos para mejorar los sistemas de pensiones de reparto (PAYG pension systems): el balance actuarial (ABS) y las cuentas nocionales de aportación definida (NDC). Las investigaciones sobre dichos instrumentos consideran, en general, sólo la contingencia de jubilación. La tesis explora las posibilidades de generalizarlos añadiendo dos nuevas contingencias, la invalidez permanente (disability) y la dependencia (LTC). Los objetivos principales que...

  19. actuar: An R Package for Actuarial Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Dutang

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available actuar is a package providing additional Actuarial Science functionality to the R statistical system. The project was launched in 2005 and the package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network since February 2006. The current version of the package contains functions for use in the fields of loss distributions modeling, risk theory (including ruin theory, simulation of compound hierarchical models and credibility theory. This paper presents in detail but with few technical terms the most recent version of the package.

  20. 42 CFR 440.340 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA). (2) Using generally accepted actuarial... actuary preparing the opinion must select and specify the standardized set of factors and the...

  1. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY ACT OF 1974... designation. An enrolled actuary shall not advertise his/her status as an enrolled actuary in any...

  2. Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

  3. Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

  4. 29 CFR 4231.10 - Actuarial calculations and assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... MULTIEMPLOYER PLANS § 4231.10 Actuarial calculations and assumptions. (a) Most recent valuation. All calculations required by this part must be based on the most recent actuarial valuation as of the date of... this part must be based on methods and assumptions that are reasonable in the aggregate, based on...

  5. Actuarial models of life insurance with stochastic interest rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiang; Hu, Ping

    2009-07-01

    On the basis of general actuarial model of life insurance, this article has carried on research to continuous life insurance actuarial models under the stochastic interest rate separately. And it provide net single premium for life insurance and life annuity due over a period based on that de Moivre law of mortality and Makeham's law of mortality separately.

  6. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Øien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Sletvold, Nina

    2016-11-16

    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence-an increase in death rate with advancing age-is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32 year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment, for individuals under two types of land use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region. At older ages, senescence was evident only when accounting for a positive effect of reproductive investment on mortality. Our results demonstrate actuarial senescence as well as a survival-reproduction trade-off in plants, and indicate that environmental context may influence senescence rates. This knowledge is crucial for understanding the evolution of demographic senescence and for models of plant population dynamics.

  7. 77 FR 63337 - Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-16

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice of Renewal of Advisory Committee. SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries announces the renewal of the charter of the...

  8. 76 FR 81362 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-28

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES 20 CFR Part 901 RIN 1545-BC82 Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial... Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Correction to final regulations. SUMMARY: This document contains corrections..., 2011 (76 FR 17762) relating to the enrollment of actuaries. DATES: This correction is effective...

  9. 42 CFR 457.431 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...— (1) By an individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries; (2) Using generally accepted actuarial principles and methodologies of the American Academy of Actuaries; (3) Using a... coverage. (c) The actuary who prepares the opinion must select and specify the standardized set...

  10. 20 CFR 901.32 - Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... actuaries. 901.32 Section 901.32 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... Suspension or Termination of Enrollment § 901.32 Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries. If an... Guaranty Corporation, or a member of the Joint Board has reason to believe that an enrolled actuary...

  11. Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques

  12. ACTUARIAL TECHNIQUES TO ASSESS THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE. INSURANCE APPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORINA IOANĂŞ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The XXI century was marked by the convergence and harmonization, this century is distinguished in that it lays the foundation of accounting actuarial, which is characterized by up to date values and actuarial calculations . Actuarial accounting is reflected best in insurance system. In the market economy, insurance system is on one hand a means of protecting the business and property of citizens, on the other hand a business that generates profits. From this context, we can say that the subject of actuarial accounting is the measurement and recognition of assets and result of the change in time value of money. Time is an important variable considered in any economic decision investing and financing.

  13. Valuing structured professional judgment: predictive validity, decision-making, and the clinical-actuarial conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falzer, Paul R

    2013-01-01

    Structured professional judgment (SPJ) has received considerable attention as an alternative to unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment, and as a means of resolving their ongoing conflict. However, predictive validity studies have typically relied on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the same technique commonly used to validate actuarial assessment tools. This paper presents SPJ as distinct from both unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment. A key distinguishing feature of SPJ is the contribution of modifiable factors, either dynamic or protective, to summary risk ratings. With modifiable factors, the summary rating scheme serves as a prognostic model rather than a classification procedure. However, prognostic models require more extensive and thorough predictive validity testing than can be provided by ROC analysis. It is proposed that validation should include calibration and reclassification techniques, as well as additional measures of discrimination. Several techniques and measures are described and illustrated. The paper concludes by tracing the limitations of ROC analysis to its philosophical foundation and its origin as a statistical theory of decision-making. This foundation inhibits the performance of crucial tasks, such as determining the sufficiency of a risk assessment and examining the evidentiary value of statistical findings. The paper closes by noting a current effort to establish a viable and complementary relationship between SPJ and decision-making theory.

  14. Human actuarial aging increases faster when background death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkes, Kristen; Smith, Ken R; Blevins, James K

    2012-01-01

    Many analyses of human populations have found that age-specific mortality rates increase faster across most of adulthood when overall mortality levels decline. This contradicts the relationship often expected from Williams' classic hypothesis about the effects of natural selection on the evolution of senescence. More likely, much of the within-species difference in actuarial aging is not due to variation in senescence, but to the strength of filters on the heterogeneity of frailty in older survivors. A challenge to this differential frailty hypothesis was recently posed by an analysis of life tables from historical European populations and traditional societies that reported variation in actuarial aging consistent with Williams' hypothesis after all. To investigate the challenge, we reconsidered those cases and aging measures. Here we show that the discrepancy depends on Ricklefs' aging rate measure, ω, which decreases as mortality levels drop because it is an index of mortality level itself, not the rate of increase in mortality with age. We also show unappreciated correspondence among the parameters of Gompertz-Makeham and Weibull survival models. Finally, we compare the relationships among mortality parameters of the traditional societies and the historical series, providing further suggestive evidence that differential heterogeneity has strong effects on actuarial aging.

  15. 1st International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance

    CERN Document Server

    Garrido, José; Hernández-Hernández, Daniel; ICASQF

    2015-01-01

    Featuring contributions from industry and academia, this volume includes chapters covering a diverse range of theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance, including portfolio management, derivative valuation, risk theory and the economics of insurance. Developed from the First International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, held at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia in Bogotá in June 2014, this volume highlights different approaches to issues arising from industries in the Andean and Carribean regions. Contributions address topics such as Reverse mortgage schemes and urban dynamics, modeling spot price dynamics in the electricity market, and optimizing calibration and pricing with SABR models.

  16. An Overview of the Society of Actuaries and Its Education Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klugman, Stuart; Long, Gena

    2014-01-01

    The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial organization. This article describes the SOA with particular attention paid to its education and qualification processes and resources available for university and college programs.

  17. 78 FR 773 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-04

    ... Employment and Training Administration Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting Group, Hartford, CT; Notice of Affirmative... workers of Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/ Actuarial/Information Delivery...

  18. 78 FR 8596 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-06

    .../ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting Group, Hartford, CT; Notice of Negative... Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial... Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services...

  19. Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlwood, Kevin E.

    2014-01-01

    Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

  20. Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

  1. Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlwood, Kevin E.

    2014-01-01

    Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

  2. Conversations with your actuary: getting to the right number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frese, Richard C

    2013-05-01

    A healthcare finance leader can guarantee recognition of his or her organization's insurance program and better manage the program's liability by discussing changes in the following areas with an actuary: Claims management. Exposure. Coverage or retention Financial reporting of losses. Management goals. Other insurance and operational matters.

  3. Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

  4. The Role of an Actuarial Director in the Development of an Introductory Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, Susan G.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the roles and duties of a director in developing an introductory actuarial program. Degree plan design, specialized exam courses, internship classes, coordination of efforts with Economics and Finance Departments, opportunities for creating a minor in actuarial mathematics, actuarial clubs, career advice, and interaction with actuarial…

  5. Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, Thomas P.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

  6. 26 CFR 300.8 - Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee...) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.8 Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board...

  7. 77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Board of Actuaries; Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ... of the Secretary Department of Defense (DoD) Board of Actuaries; Federal Advisory Committee Meeting... committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: July 19, 2012, from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m... Point of Contact: Persons desiring to attend the DoD Board of Actuaries meeting or make an...

  8. Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, Thomas P.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

  9. 76 FR 67774 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-02

    ... hold a meeting on November 14, 2011, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, cio Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  10. 75 FR 6359 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting AGENCY: Department of... amended), and 41 CFR 102-3.150, the Department of Defense announces that the DoD Board of Actuaries will..., VA 22203. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Inger Pettygrove at the DoD Office of the Actuary, 4040...

  11. The Undergraduate Statistics Major--A Prelude to Actuarial Science Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratliff, Michael I.; Williams, Raymond E.

    Recently there has been increased interest related to the Actuarial Science field. An actuary is a business professional who uses mathematical skills to define, analyze, and solve financial and social problems. This paper examines: (1) the interface between Statistical and Actuarial Science training; (2) statistical courses corresponding to…

  12. 75 FR 22754 - Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter Renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-30

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter... Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Department of Defense Board of Actuaries... members appointed by the Secretary of Defense from among qualified professional actuaries who are...

  13. 77 FR 24233 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-23

    ... hold a meeting on May 30, 2012, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S. Railroad... communications or notices to the RRB Actuarial Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad...

  14. 75 FR 47650 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-06

    ... hold a meeting on September 23, 2010, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  15. Has actuarial aging "slowed" over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew

    2009-04-01

    G.C. Williams's 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or "extrinsic," mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams's hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams's hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklefs's omega, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages 60-70, m'(60-70), and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms.

  16. Throwing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Brian R

    2011-01-01

    The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 and its progeny in particular are insufficient for accurate assessment of risk for dangerous sex offenders. They propose using a combination of clinical judgment with actuarial science as a solution. This analysis and review of Sreenivasan et al. reveals and corrects flaws in the arguments they employed to support their position and shows how the combination of actuarial science with clinical judgment is more error prone than the actuarial approach only, and cannot be forensically defended in court. Recommendations on reporting Static-99R data in expert testimony are provided, taking into account the limitations of the instrument.

  17. Have We Finally Achieved Actuarial Fairness of Social Security Retirement Benefits and Will It Last?

    OpenAIRE

    Heiland, Frank W.; Na Yin

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a framework to analyze the actuarial adjustments faced by American workers who claim Social Security benefits before or after their Full Retirement Age (FRA). We derive the conditions under which these adjustments are “actuarially fair” (or “neutral”) and develop measures to characterize the devi- ation from the fair form. Fair adjustment schedules are increasing at an increasing rate in take-up age and become flatter as longevity rises. We document that the actuarial fit ...

  18. 78 FR 9890 - DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-12

    ... of the Secretary DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: DoD... Committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: July 18, 2013, from 1:00 p.m. to 5... Human Resource Activity, DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01, Alexandria,...

  19. "Cult of equity": actuaries and the transformation of pension fund investing, 1948–1960

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the mid-twentieth-century transformation of U.K. pension fund investment policy known as the “cult of equity.” It focuses on the influence exercised by the Association of Superannuation and Pension Funds over actuarial and corporate governance standards, through actuaries who were members of its council. This intervention led to increasingly permissive actuarial valuations that reduced contributions for sponsors of pension funds investing in equities. Increased demand fo...

  20. Estadística actuarial : modelos estocásticos

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira García, María Eva; Garín Martín, María Araceli

    2010-01-01

    Son destinatarios de estas notas de clase, los alumnos de la asignatura Estadística Actuarial: modelos estocásticos, actualmente impartida dentro de la Licenciatura en Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras, futuro grado en Finanzas y Seguros. El contenido se estructura en cinco capítulos. El primero contiene una colección de ejercicios propuestos, con la idea de revisar mediante su resolución, una serie de conceptos básicos del cálculo de probabilidades, que serán necesarios en el resto de ...

  1. Optimization of the Actuarial Model of Defined Contribution Pension Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the actuarial models of defined contribution pension plan. Through assumptions and calculations, the expected replacement ratios of three different defined contribution pension plans are compared. Specially, more significant considerable factors are put forward in the further cost and risk analyses. In order to get an assessment of current status, the paper finds a relationship between the replacement ratio and the pension investment rate using econometrics method. Based on an appropriate investment rate of 6%, an expected replacement ratio of 20% is reached.

  2. Estadística actuarial : regresión lineal

    OpenAIRE

    Esteban González, María Victoria

    2008-01-01

    Estas notas de clase son de utilidad como material docente para los alumnos de la asignatura Estadística Actuarial: Regresión de la Licenciatura en Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras. También pueden ser útiles a los alumnos de asignaturas afines como es Introducción a la Econometría en la Licenciatura de Administración y Dirección de Empresas y en la Licenciatura de Economía. En estos dos últimos casos sólo necesitarían los capítulos 1, 2 y 3. Las notas de clase se estructuran siguiendo ...

  3. Criminal Behavior as a Function of Clinical and Actuarial Variables in a Sexual Offender Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Gordon C. Nagayama

    1988-01-01

    Investigated ability of clinical and actuarial variables to predict criminal behavior of 342 sexual offenders previously studied in 1987. Results suggested linear combination of actuarial variables was significantly predictive of sexual reoffenses against adults and of nonsexual reoffending. Clinical judgment was not significantly predictive of…

  4. A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

  5. Clinical versus Actuarial Predictions of Violence in Patients with Mental Illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, William; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Compared accuracy of an actuarial procedure for the prediction of community violence by patients with mental illnesses to accuracy of clinicians' concern ratings of patient violence. Data came from a study of 357 pairs of patients seen in a psychiatric emergency room. Actuarial predictions based only on patients' histories of violence were more…

  6. A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

  7. 78 FR 64943 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-30

    ... percent reserve ratio has been the normal target used to calculate the Part B premium. In view of the... physician update, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following year's expenditures... deductible by the ratio of the 2014 aged actuarial rate to the 2013 aged actuarial rate. The...

  8. 76 FR 67572 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-01

    ... has been set for a given year, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following... deductible by the ratio of the 2012 aged actuarial rate over the 2011 aged actuarial rate. The amount... physician fees in 2012, it is appropriate to maintain a significantly larger Part B contingency reserve...

  9. A Note on Realistic Dividends in Actuarial Surplus Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Avanzi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of the profitable nature of risk businesses in the long term, de Finetti suggested that surplus models should allow for cash leakages, as otherwise the surplus would unrealistically grow (on average to infinity. These leakages were interpreted as ‘dividends’. Subsequent literature on actuarial surplus models with dividend distribution has mainly focussed on dividend strategies that either maximise the expected present value of dividends until ruin or lead to a probability of ruin that is less than one (see Albrecher and Thonhauser, Avanzi for reviews. An increasing number of papers are directly interested in modelling dividend policies that are consistent with actual practice in financial markets. In this short note, we review the corporate finance literature with the specific aim of fleshing out properties that dividend strategies should ideally satisfy, if one wants to model behaviour that is consistent with practice.

  10. The Actuarial Society of South Africa AIDS model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    The AIDS Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa has developed a demographic model to allow researchers to project the impact of HIV and AIDS in South Africa. The model is available for use as a projection tool rather than to endorse a given projected scenario as being representative. It is very flexible and can be adapted to suit different purposes by anyone with a working knowledge of Microsoft Excel. The need for a model, calibration of the model, the lack of allowance in the model for racial and cultural heterogeneity in the underlying population, and default scenario projections are discussed. The model is available free of charge via E-mail and on the worldwide web at the following respective addresses: awhitelo@oldmutual.com and http://www.und.ac.za/und/eco/eru/eru.htm.

  11. 75 FR 6360 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ... Actuaries AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Meeting notice. SUMMARY: Under the provisions of the... that the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries will meet on August 18, 2010... Actuary, 4040 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 308, Arlington, VA 22203; phone 703-696-7404....

  12. 77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Federal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ... of the Secretary Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries... Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: Friday, August 3, 2012, from 1:30 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. ADDRESSES... Medicare- Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries meeting or make an oral presentation or submit...

  13. Learning Survival Models with On-Line Simulation Activities in the Actuarial Science Degree

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antonio Fernandez-Morales

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe an on-line survival laboratory designed to enhance teaching and learning in the Statistics courses of the Actuarial Science Degree of the Uni-versity of Málaga...

  14. Modelización financiero-actuarial de un seguro de dependencia = Long Term Care Insurance Actuarial Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herranz Peinado, Patricia

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available España ha seguido la tendencia de otros países en cuanto a la cobertura de las personas dependientes, es decir, aquellas que necesitan ayuda para realizar las tareas básicas de la vida diaria, y lo ha hecho mediante la aprobación de la Ley de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de Dependencia, que se basa en la financiación pública. A pesar de los esfuerzos para el desarrollo de la Ley, ésta no está dando los frutos que debiera haber dado y se hace necesaria la existencia de productos privados de cobertura que puedan atender a las necesidades de aquellos que los demandan. Dado los escasos estudios que sobre este tema existen todavía en nuestro país, el establecer una aproximación a las primas de un seguro privado de dependencia puede servir de referencia para el análisis de su comercialización por parte de las aseguradoras. En este trabajo se trata de analizar una serie de cuestiones que den respuesta a dos objetivos. Por una parte, establecer un modelo financiero-actuarial que sirva como apoyo en el diseño de productos privados que cubran la dependencia y, por otra, realizar una aproximación a las bases técnicas actuariales que lleven a la cuantificación de las primas. = Spain has followed the trend of other countries about long term care, that is, people who need help to perform the basic tasks of daily living. In December 2006, Spanish Parliament approved the law called Ley de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de Dependencia, with public financing. This law is not producing the expected results, and it makes necessary the existence of private insurance. Currently, there are few studies on long term care in our country. An approach to premiums of a private insurance can serve as reference for the studies by insurers. This work tries to study a series of questions responding simultaneously to two goals, establishing an actuarial model and, on

  15. 78 FR 9890 - DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-12

    ... of the Secretary DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal... Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: Friday, August 2, 2013, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m..., DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01, Alexandria, VA 22350-4000....

  16. MODELIZACIÓN ACTUARIAL DE LAS NUEVAS PRESTACIONES SOCIALES EN VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evaristo Diz Cruz

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available En el presente paper se trata el tema de la valoración actuarial del nuevo esquema de prestaciones sociales contempladas en la nueva Ley Orgánica del Trabajo de Venezuela . Se desarrolla un modelo actuarial en detalle y se ilustra con un ejemplo numérico el impacto en temas de pasivo actuarial para una empresa típica. Besides the usual pension benefits the pension plan of a company may be forced by law in some countries to offer wage based Lump-sum payments for labor termination this is the Venezuela case. An actuarial model of funding severance payment liabilities is formulated and studied. All formulas involved are explained in detail. Finally a specific numerical example illustrates the dynamics of the liabilities determined by the Projected Unit Credit Method for a typical Venezuelan company within the new Labor Law context a Venezuelan accounting College is promoting Actuarial Valuations of this contingencies as mandatory so this model can be used for it.

  17. Monitoring Actuarial Present Values of Term Life Insurance By a Statistical Process Control Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafidz Omar, M.

    2015-06-01

    Tracking performance of life insurance or similar insurance policy using standard statistical process control chart is complex because of many factors. In this work, we present the difficulty in doing so. However, with some modifications of the SPC charting framework, the difficulty can be manageable to the actuaries. So, we propose monitoring a simpler but natural actuarial quantity that is typically found in recursion formulas of reserves, profit testing, as well as present values. We shared some simulation results for the monitoring process. Additionally, some advantages of doing so is discussed.

  18. The lifecontingencies Package: Performing Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Calculations in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio Alfredo Spedicato

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available It is possible to model life contingency insurances with the lifecontingencies R package, which is capable of performing financial and actuarial mathematics calculations. Its functions permit one to determine both the expected value and the stochastic distribution of insured benefits. Therefore, life insurance coverage can be priced and portfolios risk-based capital requirements can be assessed. This paper briefly summarizes the theory regarding life contingencies that is based on financial mathematics and demographic con- cepts. Then, with the aid of applied examples, it shows how the lifecontingencies package can be a useful tool for executing routine, deterministic, or stochastic calculations for life-contingencies actuarial mathematics.

  19. Modelos estocásticos de la estadística actuarial

    OpenAIRE

    2017-01-01

    El siguiente texto constituye las notas de clase de la asignatura Estadística actuarial: modelos estocásticos, de carácter obligatorio, que se cursa durante el segundo cuatrimestre del primer curso del máster en Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras. Dicha asignatura se sitúa dentro de las asignaturas específicas del mundo asegurador, con especial incidencia en el cálculo actuarial y valoración de riesgos financieros. El seguimiento de estas notas requiere del conocimiento...

  20. Age distributions of Greenlandic dwarf shrubs support concept of negligible actuarial senescence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Rizzi, Silvia; Schweingruber, Fritz

    2016-01-01

    Many plants and sessile animals may not show actuarial senescence, the increase in mortality with age predicted to be ubiquitous by classic evolutionary theories of aging. Age-structured demographic information is, however, limited for most organisms. We assessed the age distributions of nine dwarf...... to be an important variable for making population projections and determining extinction risks....

  1. EL SISTEMA DE PENSIONES DE MARRUECOS: SOSTENIBILIDAD ACTUARIAL DE LA CAJA NACIONAL DE SEGURIDAD SOCIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Enrique Devesa Carpio

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available El trabajo analiza, desde el punto de vista actuarial, la sostenibilidad de la Caja Nacional de Seguridad Social de Marruecos, que es un régimen contributivo que incorpora tanto a trabajadores por cuenta ajena como por cuenta propia. Para ello se llevan a cabo casi 2000 simulaciones, a partir de individuos tipo definidos en función de las peculiaridades del sistema. Además de estudiar la situación actual se analiza el efecto de la reforma que se pretende aplicar al sistema. La conclusión principal es la insostenibilidad actuarial del mismo. The paper analyzes, from the actuarial point of view, the sustainability of the National Social Security Fund in Morocco, which is a contributory scheme that incorporates both employees and self-employed. To do this, almost 2000 simulations are conducted, from different type of individuals defined according to the peculiarities of the system. In addition to studying the current situation, the effect of the reform intended to apply to the system will be analyzed. The main conclusion is the actuarial unsustainability of the system.

  2. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2012-01-01

    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same yea

  3. Academic Attributes of College Freshmen that Lead to Success in Actuarial Studies in a Business College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard Manning; Schumacher, Phyllis

    2006-01-01

    The authors studied beginning undergraduate actuarial concentrators in a business college. They identified four variables (math Scholastic Aptitude Test [SAT] score, verbal SAT score, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam) that were available for entering college students that…

  4. 75 FR 68790 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-09

    ... has been set for a given year, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following... deductible is calculated by multiplying the 2010 deductible by the ratio of the 2011 aged actuarial rate over... larger Part B contingency reserve than would otherwise be necessary. The asset level projected for...

  5. From Meehl (1954) to fast and frugal heuristics (and back) : new insights into how to bridge the clinical-actuarial divide

    OpenAIRE

    Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos; Pachur, Thorsten; Machery, Edouard; Wallin, Annika

    2008-01-01

    It is difficult to overestimate Paul Meehl’s influence on judgment and decision-making research. His ‘disturbing little book’ (Meehl, 1986, p. 370) Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence (1954) is known as an attack on human judgment and a call for replacing clinicians with actuarial methods. More than 40 years later, fast and frugal heuristics—proposed as models of human judgment—were formalized, tested, and found to be surprisingly accura...

  6. Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilong Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigate the validity condition of this new model. We also discuss actuarial present values of several life annuities under this new interest model. Simulations are done to illustrate the theoretical results and the effect of parameters in interest model on actuarial present values is also analyzed.

  7. Actuarial calculation for PSAK-24 purposes post-employment benefit using market-consistent approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we use a market-consistent approach to calculate present value of obligation of a companies' post-employment benefit in accordance with PSAK-24 (the Indonesian accounting standard). We set some actuarial assumption such as Indonesian TMI 2011 mortality tables for mortality assumptions, accumulated salary function for wages assumption, a scaled (to mortality) disability assumption and a pre-defined turnover rate for termination assumption. For economic assumption, we use binomial tree method with estimated discount rate as its average movement. In accordance with PSAK-24, the Projected Unit Credit method has been adapted to determine the present value of obligation (actuarial liability), so we use this method with a modification in its discount function.

  8. Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Holder, Norah

    2008-12-01

    Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

  9. ActuArial Accounting – A Branch of the Financial Accounting

    OpenAIRE

    Gheorghe V. Lepadatu; Doina Maria Tilea

    2010-01-01

    The opening of the accounting to the actuarial calculation is a normal consequence of its evolutive spirit. At the origin of the international accounting standards lies the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation bases: the historical cost, the current c...

  10. The Actuarial Accounting in the Modern Financial-Accounting Management with Applications to the Entities

    OpenAIRE

    Gheorghe V. Lepadatu

    2012-01-01

    The opening of the accounting to the actuarial calculation is a normal consequence of its evolving spirit. At the origin of the international accounting standards lies the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation bases: the historical cost, the current co...

  11. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  12. Thrown a curve. CMS' actuaries: healthcare spending will continue to increase, despite reform law promises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Rich

    2011-08-01

    While CMS actuaries say the 2010 reform law will not slow the nation's healthcare spending in the coming decade, Mary Grealy, of the Healthcare Leadership Council, says the law "was basically a coverage bill. We just didn't get to the other half, which would be aimed at the cost-drivers in the system." She adds that the healthcare system will not control ongoing steep increases in spending until additional legislation reshapes the dominant public insurance plans.

  13. Actuarial modeling of cost of voluntary pension insurance of the population of the region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailova Svetlana Sergeevna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In article approach to determination of net value of the contract of pension insurance for the man's and female population, considering regional demographic features is offered. Results of actuarial calculation of the size pure net - rates of individual pension insurance are presented, "sensitivity" of cost of insurance is defined by methods of statistical modeling to key parameters of a pension product for the region population.

  14. The lifecontingencies Package: Performing Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Calculations in R

    OpenAIRE

    Giorgio Alfredo Spedicato

    2013-01-01

    It is possible to model life contingency insurances with the lifecontingencies R package, which is capable of performing financial and actuarial mathematics calculations. Its functions permit one to determine both the expected value and the stochastic distribution of insured benefits. Therefore, life insurance coverage can be priced and portfolios risk-based capital requirements can be assessed. This paper briefly summarizes the theory regarding life contingencies that is based on financial m...

  15. Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

  16. 基于期权定价视角的医疗保险精算原理与方法%The Principle and Method of Medical Insurance Actuarial and Its Application Based on Option Pricing Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑红

    2011-01-01

    期权定价与精算定价还存在一定差异,如何克服这些差异并建立适合于医疗保险精算特点的期权定价模型是本文研究的出发点.将期权定价与精算技术整合于医疗保险精算领域,通过规范的经济分析将纯保费测算问题转化为期权定价问题,将医疗保险纯保费看成是一个特珠的欧式看涨期权价格.利用医疗保险精算的期权定价方法,从评估保险人的损失和相应概率入手确定医疗保险的纯保费,通过对模型的适当修正,实现考虑免赔额、共同保险和赔偿限额的纯保费期权定价,为医疗保险精算提供了一个新颖的分析工具,进一步拓展了医疗保险精算方法的研究.最后利用卫生部统计中心数据,基于历年人均医疗费用水平测算了我国居民需缴纳的门诊社区费率,为我国医疗改革和医疗保险实践提供理论参考和决策支持.%Option pricing and actuarial pricing also exist certain differences. The starting point of this paper is to explore how to overcome these differences to establish an option pricing modelsuitable to insurance actuarial characteristics. The option pricing and actuarial technique are integrated in medical insurance actuarial fields, by turning the pure premium actuarial problem into an option pricing issues , and health insurance pure premiums into a special European call option prices through the specification of economic analysis. Using the option pricing method of medical insurance actuarial, the paper determines pure health insurance premiums from payoff of the insurer and the corresponding probability to get the pure premium pricing eonsidering the deductibles, coinsurance and compensaion limits through appropriate amendments to the model, and to provide a new analysis tool for medical insurance actuarial, and further expansion of the medical insurance actuarial methods. Finally Community-based health Care fee are calculated using the statistics from the

  17. The Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for the Prediction of First-Time Offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assink, Mark; van der Put, Claudia E; Stams, Geert Jan J M

    2016-05-01

    For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police.

  18. Frailty in state-space models: application to actuarial senescence in the Dipper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzolin, Gilbert; Charmantier, Anne; Gimenez, Olivier

    2011-03-01

    Senescence, a decrease in life history traits with age, is a within-individual process. The lack of suitable methods to deal with individual heterogeneity has long impeded progress in exploring senescence in wild populations. Analyses of survival senescence are additionally complicated by the often neglected issue of imperfect detectability. To deal with both these issues, we developed state-space models to analyze capture-mark-recapture data while accounting for individual heterogeneity by incorporating random effects. We illustrated our approach by applying it to 29 years of data on breeding females in a Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) population. We highlighted patterns of age-related variation in annual survival by statistical comparisons of piecewise linear, quadratic, Gompertz, and Weibull survival models. The Gompertz model was ranked first in our set. It provided strong evidence for actuarial senescence with an onset of senescence estimated at about 2.3 years. The probability for this model to involve a frailty was 0.15, and the probability to involve an individual latent effect in detection was about 0.4. The estimated mean age at first reproduction was 1.2 years. The general case model described here in detail should encourage the reanalysis of actuarial senescence in cases where imperfect detection or individual heterogeneity is suspected.

  19. PRESTACIONES NO CONTRIBUTIVAS DE INVALIDEZ: EL LÍMITE DE INGRESOS Y LA EQUIVALENCIA ACTUARIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Hernández González

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available El límite de ingresos es una herramienta útil para objetivar la carencia de rentas y permitir la obtención de pensiones no contributivas. Sin embargo, su aplicación práctica da lugar a escenarios de escasa justificación técnica o social, por lo que el uso de la equivalencia actuarial sería de gran utilidad para determinar de una forma más adecuada el verdadero estado patrimonial del individuo a lo largo del tiempo y, con ello, la realidad de sus derechos en materia de seguridad social. The limit of earnings is an useful tool to define the lack of income and allow access to a non-contributory pension. However, its practical application promotes scenarios with poor technical or social justification, so the use of actuarial equivalence would be useful to determine adequately the person’s real patrimony in the long term and, thus, the reality of their rights of social security.

  20. Ethical practice in sex offender assessment: consideration of actuarial and polygraph methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vess, James

    2011-09-01

    The current generation of community protection laws represents a shift in priorities that may see the individual rights of sex offenders compromised for the goal of public safety. At the center of many judicial decisions under these laws are the risk assessment reports provided by mental health practitioners. The widespread enactment of laws allowing for additional sanctions for sex offenders, and a burgeoning research literature regarding the methods used to assess risk have served to heighten rather than resolve the ethical concerns associated with professional practice in this area. This article examines ethical issues inherent in the use of two assessment methods commonly used with sex offenders in the correctional context, focusing on actuarial measures and polygraph tests. Properly conducted and adequately reported actuarial findings are considered to provide useful information of sufficient accuracy to inform rather than mislead judicial decision makers, although careful consideration must be given to the limitations of current measures in each individual case. Despite its increasing use, polygraph testing is considered controversial, with little consensus regarding its accuracy or appropriate applications. On the basis of the current state of the professional literature regarding the polygraph, its use with sex offenders raises unresolved ethical concerns.

  1. THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOCIAL SECURITY IN AFRICA: AN ACTUARIAL PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatima Badat

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Social Security in most African countries has evolved significantly in terms of perspectives, motives, governance as well as innovation of benefits and administration. African countries are slowly, one by one, beginning to reassess the role of social security in correcting several social ills. Empowerment programs and grants are increasingly being provided via social security to women and the youth. From the roots of social security, even very low income countries, some of which have recently experienced several years of civil war and extreme economic hardships, have begun to improve benefit structures and amounts, which include national medical benefits. The attention being provided to social security and how it fits into a nation’s plans to lift itself out of poverty is increasingly involving the actuarial profession from international organisations such as ILO and ISSA as well as consulting actuaries and academics. Assessing and ensuring sustainability of social security benefits requires actuarial valuations to take long-term consequences involving demographic changes into account in the face of providing the benefits in the short term; asset liability modelling to ensure adequate resources are held; ensuring that results are appropriately reported and communicated to key stakeholders; as well as developing long-term strategic plans and dynamic systems surrounding all of these issues. In this paper, the role of actuaries is brought to the centre of the increasingly changing face and evolving culture of social security in taking Africa closer to poverty alleviation. La Seguridad Social en la mayoría de los países africanos ha evolucionado significativamente en cuanto a perspectivas, motivos, gobernanza, así como en innovación en las prestaciones y la adminsitración. Los países africanos están comenzando a reevaluar el papel de la Seguridad Social en la eliminación de determinados problemas sociales. Los programas de acción y los

  2. Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E

    2014-06-01

    Estimating the risk for recidivism is important for many areas of the criminal justice system. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT) was developed for juvenile offenders based solely on police records, with the aim to estimate the risk of general recidivism among large groups of juvenile offenders by police officers without clinical expertise. On the basis of the Y-ARAT, juvenile offenders are classified into five risk groups based on (combinations of) 10 variables including different types of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of other incidents, total number of incidents in which co-occupants at the youth's address were suspects, gender, and age at first incident. The Y-ARAT was developed on a sample of 2,501 juvenile offenders and validated on another sample of 2,499 juvenile offenders, showing moderate predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = .73), with little variation between the construction and validation sample. The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT was considered sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police.

  3. Reforming Military Retirement: Analysis in Support of the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    of the Actuary cheerfully provided key input for our analysis, no matter the time pressure. We also thank our RAND colleagues David Knapp and...DoD Actuary . The final task was to analyze the cost savings and change in government outlays during the transition to the steady state, including...last part of the chapter presents our steady-state estimates of cost savings for three cases, making use of input received from the DoD Actuary , for

  4. If You Build It, Will They Come? Tales of Developing a New Degree Program in Actuarial Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marano, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    In 2007, the B.S. in Applied Mathematics program consisting of five concentrations, including Actuarial Science, began at West Chester University of Pennsylvania, and we graduated our first class (of one) that December. We describe our program, some ideas to consider when planning your own program, and share some of the successes of our program…

  5. If You Build It, Will They Come? Tales of Developing a New Degree Program in Actuarial Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marano, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    In 2007, the B.S. in Applied Mathematics program consisting of five concentrations, including Actuarial Science, began at West Chester University of Pennsylvania, and we graduated our first class (of one) that December. We describe our program, some ideas to consider when planning your own program, and share some of the successes of our program…

  6. Optimization of Actuarial Model for Individual Account of Rural Social Pension Insurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenxian; CAO

    2013-01-01

    This paper firstly analyzes different payment methods of individual account and the pension replacement rate under the pension payment method.Results show that it will be more scientific and reasonable for the individual account of new rural social pension insurance to adopt the actuarial model of payment according to proportion of income and periodic prestation at variable amount.The Guiding Opinions on New Rural Social Pension Insurance sets forth individual account should be paid at fixed amount,and the insured voluntarily selects payment level as per criteria set by the State.The monthly calculation and distribution amount of pension is the total amount of individual account divided by139.Therefore,it should start from continuation of policies and make adjustment of payment level in accordance with growth of per capita net income of rural residents.When condition permits,it is expected to realize transition to payment as per income proportion and periodic prestation at variable amount.

  7. Ruin Probability and Joint Distributions of Some Actuarial Random Vectors in the Compound Pascal Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xian-min Geng; Shu-chen Wan

    2011-01-01

    The compound negative binomial model, introduced in this paper, is a discrete time version. We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process, and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuarial random vectors in this model. By the strong Markov property and the mass function of a defective renewal sequence, we obtain the explicit expressions of the ruin probability, the finite-horizon ruin probability,the joint distributions of T, U(T - 1), |U(T)| and inf 0≤n<T1 U(n) (i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, the deficit at ruin and maximal deficit from ruin to recovery) and the distributions of some actuariai random vectors.

  8. An actuarial approach to comparing early stage and late stage lung cancer mortality and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Sara W; Mulshine, James L; Hagstrom, Dale; Pyenson, Bruce S

    2010-02-01

    Comparing the mortality characteristics of different cohorts is an essential process in the life insurance industry. Pseudodisease, lead-time bias, and length bias, which are critical to determining the value of cancer screening, have close analogues in life insurance company management, including the temporal impact of underwriting. Ratios of all-cause mortality rates for cancer cohorts relative to standard population mortality rates can provide insights into early stage and late stage mortality differences, differences by age, sex, race, and histology, and allow modeling of biases associated with early stage detection or screening protocols. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data set has characteristics that allow efficient application of actuarial techniques. We show the mortality burden associated with treated early stage lung cancer and that identifying all lung cancers at early stage could reduce US lung cancer deaths by over 70,000 per year.

  9. NEW METHOD TO OPTION PRICING FOR THE GENERAL BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL-AN ACTUARIAL APPROACH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫海峰; 刘三阳

    2003-01-01

    Using physical probability measure of price process and the principle of fairpremium, the results of Mogers Bladt and Hina Hviid Rydberg are generalized. In twocases of paying intermediate divisends and no intermediate dividends, the Black-Scholesmodel is generalized to the case where the risk-less asset (bond or bank account) earns atime-dependent interest rate and risk asset (stock) has time-dependent the continuouslycompounding expected rate of return, volatility. In these cases the accurate pricing formulaand put- call parity of European option are obtained. The general approach of option pricingis given for the general Black-Scholes of the risk asset (stock) has the continuouslycompounding expected rate of return, volatility. The accurate pricing formula and put- callparity of European option on a stock whose price process is driven by general Ornstein-Uhlenback (O-U) process are given by actuarial approach.

  10. El tratamiento actuarial de los periodos de carencia y el contraseguro de primas en el seguro de dependencia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricote Gil, Fernando.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available La dependencia es un estado en el que se encuentran las personas que por razones ligadas a la falta o la pérdida de autonomía física, psíquica o intelectual tienen necesidad de asistencia y/o atención significativa para la realización los actos corrientes de la vida diaria. Dentro de la iniciativa privada, el sector asegurador juega un importante papel para la prestación de garantías derivadas de esta cobertura. Un aspecto fundamental en el estudio de esta cobertura es la consideración de los periodos de carencia y el tratamiento del contraseguro de primas durante los mismo. Se analiza el riesgo actuarial y su tratamiento en esta cobertura y la incidencia en la valoración actuarial de las primas por prestaciones de dependencia.

  11. A theoretical model of the evolution of actuarial senescence under environmental stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, H; Cohen, A A; Isaksson, C

    2015-11-01

    Free-living organisms are exposed to a wide range of stressors, all of which can disrupt components of stress-related and detoxification physiology. The subsequent accumulation of somatic damage is widely believed to play a major role in the evolution of senescence. Organisms have evolved sophisticated physiological regulatory mechanisms to maintain homeostasis in response to environmental perturbations, but these systems are likely to be constrained in their ability to optimise robustness to multiple stressors due to functional correlations among related traits. While evolutionary change can accelerate due to human ecological impacts, it remains to be understood how exposure to multiple environmental stressors could affect senescence rates and subsequently population dynamics and fitness. We used a theoretical evolutionary framework to quantify the potential consequences for the evolution of actuarial senescence in response to exposure to simultaneous physiological stressors--one versus multiple and additive versus synergistic--in a hypothetical population of avian "urban adapters". In a model in which multiple stressors have additive effects on physiology, species may retain greater capacity to recover, or respond adaptively, to environmental challenges. However, in the presence of high synergy, physiological dysregulation suddenly occurs, leading to a rapid increase in age-dependent mortality and subsequent population collapse. Our results suggest that, if the synergistic model is correct, population crashes in environmentally-stressed species could happen quickly and with little warning, as physiological thresholds of stress resistance are overcome.

  12. Prediction of Basic Math Course Failure Rate in the Physics, Meteorology, Mathematics, Actuarial Sciences and Pharmacy Degree Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Rojas-Torres

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes a study conducted in 2013 with the purpose of predicting the failure rate of math courses taken by Pharmacy, Mathematics, Actuarial Science, Physics and Meteorology students at Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR. Using the Logistics Regression statistical techniques applied to the 2010 cohort, failure rates were predicted of students in the aforementioned programs in one of their Math introductory courses (Calculus 101 for Physics and Meteorology, Math Principles for Mathematics and Actuarial Science and Applied Differential Equations for Pharmacy. For these models, the UCR admission average, the student’s genre, and the average correct answers in the Quantitative Skills Test were used as predictor variables. The most important variable for all models was the Quantitative Skills Test, and the model with the highest correct classification rate was the Logistics Regression. For the estimated Physics-Meteorology, Pharmacy and Mathematics-Actuarial Science models, correct classifications were 89.8%, 73.6%, and 93.9%, respectively.

  13. 弹性退休制下退休年金的随机精算模型与模拟测算∗%The Stochastic Actuarial Models and Simulation about Retirement Annuity under Flexible Retirement System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙荣

    2016-01-01

    弹性退休制是应对老龄化的社会养老保险制度改革未来选择之一,因此研究该制度下的退休年金精算问题具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文运用二项分布拟合退休年龄,带跳的非连续随机微分方程拟合利率,带跳Feller过程拟合死力强度,分析了弹性退休制下退休年金寿险精算函数,给出了生命年金、退休年金、退休年金二阶矩精算现值与均衡净保费的表达式,并利用模型对相关精算函数进行模拟测算。这些公式为弹性退休制下的保险金、均衡保险费等提供了精算分析的理论基础,从而为我国养老保险制度改革的制度设计、防控养老保险帐户风险提供了依据。%The flexible retirement system is one of the options of society endowment insurance system to deal with the aging. Therefore, the pension annuity under the system has important impact on theory and practice. This paper investigates the actuarial function of retirement annuity under the flexible retirement system. Under the hypothesis that the distribution of the retirement age is binomial distribution, the interest rate is decided by the discontinuous stochastic differential equations with jumps, and the death intensity is decided by Feller process with a jump. The formulas of the retirement annuity are proposed, including the life annuities, insurance, net premiums and insurance actuarial present value of second moment, and the sim-ulatived estimation for the relevant actuarial functions is derived. These formulas provide the basis of the actuarial analysis of insurance and balance insurance under the flexible retirement system, thus they can be applied for the old-age insurance system and control of risk pension account in China.

  14. Thoughts about Actuarial Undergraduate Education and Teaching in Fujian Colleges%福建省高校精算本科教育与教学的思考

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李玉水

    2014-01-01

    随着福建经济快速发展,对精算人才的需求越来越大,表现在福建省保险业的发展刺激保险精算人才的需求、福建省社会保障制度可持续健康的发展需要精算人才、金融机构风险管理技术的提升需要精算技术。为此,要提高对精算的宣传与认识,扩大精算本科招生规模、根据精算应用方向来设置课程、在教学上要从理论到实践,注重综合素质的培养、促进闽台两岸精算人才培养与合作,最终培养出适合市场需要精算复合型人才及促进福建省精算本科教育健康可持续发展。%With the rapid economic development in Fujian, the demand for actuarial talent is growing, showing in the development of the insurance industry in Fujian stimulating the actuarial talent needs, the sustainable and healthy development of the social security system in Fujian needing actuarial talent, the promotion of the financial institution risk management techniques requiring actuarial techniques. Therefore, improving actuarial propaganda and cognition, expanding the actuarial undergraduate enrollment, according to the actuarial application direction to set course plan, paying attention to the overall quality by training from theory to practice in teaching, promoting actuarial personnel training and cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan, eventually cultivating the compound actuarial talent in accordance with needs of the market, and promoting the actuarial undergraduate education’s healthy and sustainable development in Fujian.

  15. Capital offenders in Texas prisons: rates, correlates, and an actuarial analysis of violent misconduct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Mark Douglas; Sorensen, Jon R

    2007-12-01

    This study analyzed the records of 136 recently incarcerated capital murder offenders in the initial phase (M = 2.37 years, range = 6-40 months) of their life sentences in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Prevalence rates of institutional violence were inversely related to severity: potentially violent misconduct (36.8%), assaultive violations (14%), serious assaults (5.1%), and homicides (0%). Consistent with prior studies, factors correlated with assaultive misconduct included age (inversely), prior prison confinement, and concurrent robbery or burglary in the capital offense. A simplified Burgess scale entitled the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison-Capital (RASP-Cap) was moderately successful in identifying varying levels of improbability of committing violence-related misconduct however defined (AUC = .715-.766).

  16. LA ESCALA DE PORCENTAJES DE LA LEY 27/2011: UN ENFOQUE ACTUARIAL PARA UN NUEVO MODELO SOSTENIBLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Javier Budia Aldana

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available La Ley 27/2011, de 1 de agosto, sobre actualización, adecuación y modernización del sistema de seguridad social, ha variado la escala de porcentajes aplicables a la base reguladora en función del número de años cotizados. Los nuevos porcentajes afectan a los trabajadores que se vayan a jubilar con periodos de cotización entre 15 y 37 años y, especialmente, a aquellos trabajadores cuyas pensiones sean bajas y puedan ser beneficiarios de complemento a mínimos. Estas variaciones, que se han ido produciendo en la escala de porcentajes a través de sucesivos cambios legislativos, han llevado al actuario a estudiar cuáles serían los porcentajes de equilibrio financiero-actuarial según el número de años cotizados y la edad de inicio en el mercado laboral para cubrir todas las pensiones que pueda causar el trabajador. The Law 27/2011 of 1 August, about updating, improvement and modernization of the social security system has changed the scale of percentages applicable to the regulatory base depending on the number of years of contributions. The new rates affect workers who are to retire on contribution periods between 15 and 37 years, and especially to those workers whose pensions are low and can receive minimum supplements. These variations, that have they occurred in the percentage scale through successive legislative changes, have led to the actuary to study what percentage of financial and actuarial balance would be according to the number of years of contributions and the age of onset in the labor market to cover all pensions that may cause the worker.

  17. Actuarial calculation on time value of money%资金时间价值的精算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁静之

    2001-01-01

    Interest is defined as compensation for money use,but the definition can not reflect its nature.In fact,interest is actual the compensation for time value of money.A class of actuarial calculation on time value of money is given from this point of view,which will do great help to understanding of actuarial science.%经济学中,利息被定义为在一定时间内使用他人或组织的资金而支付的报酬.这一定义没有反映利息的本质,没有说明支付上述报酬的原因及具体的计算方法.故认为:借方不仅要归还贷方的借贷资金,还要支付资金提早使用的时间价值,利息应该是资金的时间价值的折算,并且应有精算思想去讨论它的折算方法.

  18. Substance Abuse among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has…

  19. Recursos tecnológicos y actividades no presenciales para un mejor aprendizaje de la Estadística Actuarial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Fernández Morales

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se describe el diseño y los resultados obtenidos con una estrategia didáctica innovadora para el aprendizaje de la Estadística Actuarial en la licenciatura de Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras de la Universidad de Málaga. Mediante un uso intensivo de actividades no presenciales y elementos tecnológicos que favorecen el aprendizaje en movilidad se pretende potenciar el aprendizaje autónomo, colaborativo y contextualizado. Para ello se han diseñado, entre otras, actividades de identificación y asimilación de competencias, un laboratorio virtual de supervivencia basado en un simulador gráfico interactivo y un microportal para dispositivos iPhone y iPod touch de Apple.

  20. Properties of actuarially fair and pay-as-you-go health insurance schemes for the elderly. An OLG model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, P O

    2000-07-01

    The aged dependency ratio or ADR is growing at a fast pace in many countries. This fact causes stress to the economy and might create conflicts of interest between young and old. In this paper the properties of different health insurance systems for the elderly are analysed within an overlapping generations (OLG) model. The properties of actuarial health insurance and different variations of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) health insurance are compared. It turns out that the welfare properties of these contracts are heavily dependent on the economy's dynamic properties. Of particular importance is the magnitude of the rate of population growth relative to the interest rate. In addition, it is shown that public health insurance is associated with an inherent externality resulting in a second-best solution.

  1. 国内外高校精算教育的比较研究%The Comparative Study on Actuarial Education and Foreign Universities

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张薏; 李玮

    2011-01-01

    2010年12月14日,国际精算协会(IAA)接纳中国精算师协会(CAA)成为其第63位正式单位会员。2011年3月17日,中国精算师协会(CAA)与英国精算师协会(I&FA)签署了精算考试相互认可备忘录。这标志着中国精算师资格考试在通往国际化的道路上迈出了实质性的步伐,中国的精算教育正在逐步获得国际标准的认可。随着市场经济的发展,对精算教育的要求也会越来越高。高校教育只是精算教育的一个方面,只有与职业教育相配合,与业界共同努力,才能培养出优秀的精算专业人才。%In December 14,2010, International Actuarial Association (IAA) accepted China Association of Ac-tuaries(CAA) as its sixty- third formal members of units. In March 17,2011, CAA and the British Association of Actuaries (I&FA) signed a memorandum of mutual recognition of actuarial exams. This series of events undoubtedly marks the Chinese actuarial qualification examination has stepped materiality pace to the road of internationaliza- tion, and the Chinese actuarial education is gradually gaining the recognition of international standards. This paper compares the actuarial education development status m the domestic and foreign universities, analyzes some existing problems of the current college education in training plan, teaching practice, foreign exchange and other aspects in domestic, and puts forward some ideas to integration with the international actuarial education in the future.

  2. ANÁLISIS ACTUARIAL DE LA INDEMNIZACIÓN POR NECESIDAD DE AYUDA DE TERCERA PERSONA ESTABLECIDA EN LA LEY 35/2015, DE 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Gómez Pérez-Cacho

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available La Ley 35/2015, de 22 de septiembre, establece un nuevo sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación, el cual incluye indemnizaciones cuya finalidad es compensar los perjuicios patrimoniales que sufren los perjudicados, ya se trate de lucro cesante o de daño emergente.Conforme a lo establecido en la propia Ley, las más relevantes de esas indemnizaciones requieren una valoración actuarial, siendo ese el caso de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona. El presente trabajo tiene por objeto analizar la metodología de valoración actuarial que, para esta indemnización, se incluye en las “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo” y los resultados que se obtienen en el marco de los principios y criterios que la Ley 35/2015 establece con carácter general para el sistema y, en particular, para dicha indemnización. The Law 35/2015, September 22nd, establishes a new system for valuation of traffic accident victims damages which includes compensations of economic damages (loss of income/profit or emerging damage. According to the Law, the more relevant of these compensations require actuarial valuation. The compensation for victims requiring third party aid is one of them. In this paper, we analyze the actuarial valuation methodology that the “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo” (Scale Actuarial Technical Basis set to calculate this compensation, as well as the assumed biometric, economic and financial hypothesis and the obtained results. The framework for this is the set of principles and criteria which the Law 35/2015 establishes in general for the system and in particular for this compensation.

  3. Modelo actuarial para estimar la tasa de interés justa/óptima de un financiamiento automotriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Hernández Martínez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available El presente modelo actuarial de tasa de interés justa, pondera de manera equilibrada el precio del dinero - tanto para un prestamista, como para el solicitante - en donde ninguna de las partes resulta más beneficiada en perjuicio de la otra. De este modo, sea cual sea la elección del enganche y plazo que el cliente decida, siempre obtendrá el precio óptimo del financiamiento solicitado. La función Z = f(x,y representa a la variable de tasa de interés justa, en donde ambas partes tendrían una relación del tipo “ganar - ganar”; es decir, que ambas partes resultan mutuamente beneficiadas de la operación crediticia y en la cual ninguna de ellas obtiene ventaja en perjuicio de su contraparte. El precio justo del crédito automotriz se encuentra sobre la superficie de una gráfica de tres dimensiones cuyos puntos óptimos convergen en el vector (x,y,z; que determina la tasa de interés i, para un crédito sano. El diseño de un modelo computacional permite que el usuario interactúe con las variables de enganche y plazo, para conocer cómo influyen en el comportamiento de su crédito; tanto en el pago mensual, como en los intereses, impuestos y seguros; ofreciéndole una corrida financiera a lo largo del plazo contratado. Así, el modelo actuarial es totalmente dinámico ya que se adapta a los escenarios que se propongan. Corolario de lo anterior, resulta que cualquier punto fuera de la superficie óptima de la gráfica implicaría una ventaja/desventaja para alguna de las partes; por lo que el presente modelo permite realizar análisis de sensibilidad para tomar decisiones ANTES de celebrar la operación, considerando diferentes escenarios para las variables (x,y; de este modo, el modelo representa una herramienta de PREVISIÓN e incluso de PREVENCIÓN para la toma de mejores decisiones financieras.

  4. 中国精算的早期历史:从“Actuary”到“精算师”%The Early History of Chinese Actuarial Profession: From the Term of Actuary to Jingsuanshi (Accurate Calculating Master)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢志刚

    2016-01-01

    术语“Actuary”于1775年出现于英国,用于命名人寿保险公司中一种特殊而关键的职务,这种职务逐渐形成一种专门职业.鸦片战争后,上海开埠,英商“永福人寿(Standard Life Assurance Co.)”和“永年人寿(China Mutual Life Insurance Co.)”于1898年在沪上设立(分)公司,两家公司的负责人都是英国的Actuary.之后的1912年,我国民族资本设立的人寿保险公司从上海发端,开始有中国人从事Actuary工作,并在上世纪三十年代初被称为“精算师”.1936年6月,上海保险同业公会设立“寿险精算委员会”,是我国第一个精算师职业团体.本文以此脉络梳理我国保险业的发展,还原我国精算师职业的真实历史和应有国际地位.

  5. Calculo y comparacion de la prima de un reaseguro de salud usando el modelo de opciones de Black-Scholes y el modelo actuarial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Eduardo Giron

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available La presente investigación pretende calcular y comparar la prima de un reaseguro  usando el modelo de opciones de Black-Scholes y el modelo clásico actuarial tradicional. El período de análisis va desde enero de 2011 hasta diciembre de 2012. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el modelo de Black-Scholes, que se utiliza normalmente para valorar opciones financieras, puede ser también usado para la estimación de primas de reaseguros de salud; y que la prima neta estimada a partir de este modelo se aproxima a las establecidas por el método actuarial, excepto cuando el deducible del reaseguro es muy alto (por encima de $200.000.000.

  6. 保险精算课程内容设置的研究%The research about the teaching content setting of actuarial science course

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫达文; 宋立新; 朱安妮

    2013-01-01

    For the setting of the actuarial science course′s teaching content proposed the principle that some parts should be extended and the others should be contracted conversely,and designed the three main lines of the teaching based on the principle.Within the short class period,this course could reveal systematically the application of the actuarial methods in the risk management of the financial institutions including insurance.Made the students hold the clear purpose and strong interest throughout leaning the actuarial course,improved the teaching effect and quality.%针对保险精算课程教学内容的设置,提出有“收”、有“放”原则,并依此设计了三条授课主线。在有限的课时内,系统地揭示精算方法在保险公司等金融机构风险管理中的运用过程,保证学生的学习目标始终明确,保持强烈的学习兴趣,从而提高了教学效果和质量。

  7. An Actuarial Model for Assessment of Prison Violence Risk Among Maximum Security Inmates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Mark D.; Sorensen, Jon R.; Reidy, Thomas J.

    2005-01-01

    An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population…

  8. An Actuarial Model for Assessment of Prison Violence Risk Among Maximum Security Inmates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Mark D.; Sorensen, Jon R.; Reidy, Thomas J.

    2005-01-01

    An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population…

  9. Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Validation of the German version of the Static-991

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Rettenberger

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The Static-99 and the RRASOR are actuarial risk assessment tools for evaluating the risk of sexual and violent recidivism in sexual offenders. The Static-99 was developed in 1999 by Karl R. Hanson (Canada and David Thornton (Great Britain and is in the mean time regularly used for risk assessment in North America and some countries in Europe. The RRASOR can be described as a predecessor of the Static-99 and was published by Hanson in 1997. At first we translated the revised version of the Static-99 (Harris, Phenix, Hanson & Thornton, 2003 and adapted the instrument and the manual to the forensic context in Germany and Austria (Rettenberger & Eher, 2006. In this retrospective study, interrater reliability and concurrent validity of the RRASOR and of the German adaption of the Static-99 is presented. Furthermore we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 and the RRASOR and compared their results. The instruments were validated from file information of Austrian sexuel offenders, who were convicted between 1968 and 2002. Both the Static-99 and the RRASOR had good interrater reliability and concurrent validity. The Static-99 showed good predictive validity for general (r = .41, AUC = .74, sexual (r = .35, AUC = .74 and violent (r = .41, AUC = .76 recidivism, whereas the predictive accuracy of the RRASOR was moderate for general (r = .29, AUC = .66, sexual (r = .30, AUC = .68 and violent (r = .28, AUC = .67 recidivism. The Static-99 exhibited a higher accuracy for the prediction of sexual offender recidivism. Although further validation studies on German-speaking populations of sex offenders are necessary, these results support the utility of the German version of the revised version of the Static-99 in improving risk assessment of sexual offenders.

  10. Coherence and health care cost--RCA actuarial study: a cost-effectiveness cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedell, Woody; Kaszkin-Bettag, Marietta

    2010-01-01

    Chronic stress is among the most costly health problems in terms of direct health costs, absenteeism, disability, and performance standards. The Reformed Church in America (RCA) identified stress among its clergy as a major cause of higher-than-average health claims and implemented HeartMath (HM) to help its participants manage stress and increase physiological resilience. The 6-week HM program Revitalize You! was selected for the intervention including the emWave Personal Stress Reliever technology. From 2006 to 2007, completion of a health risk assessment (HRA) provided eligible clergy with the opportunity to participate in the HM program or a lifestyle management program (LSM). Outcomes for that year were assessed with the Stress and Well-being Survey. Of 313 participants who completed the survey, 149 completed the Revitalize You! Program, and 164 completed the LSM. Well-being, stress management, resilience, and emotional vitality were significantly improved in the HM group as compared to the LSM group. In an analysis of the claims costs data for 2007 and 2008, 144 pastors who had participated in the HM program were compared to 343 non-participants (control group). Adjusted medical costs were reduced by 3.8% for HM participants in comparison with an increase of 9.0% for the control group. For the adjusted pharmacy costs, an increase of 7.9% was found compared with an increase of 13.3% for the control group. Total 2008 savings as a result of the HM program are estimated at $585 per participant, yielding a return on investment of 1.95:1. These findings show that HM stress-reduction and coherence-building techniques can reduce health care costs.

  11. Análisis Actuarial de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona prevista en la Ley 35/2015

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez Pérez-Cacho, Olga; Moreno Ruiz, Rafael; Trigo Martínez, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    La Ley 35/2015, de 22 de septiembre, establece un nuevo sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación, el cual incluye indemnizaciones cuya finalidad es compensar los perjuicios patrimoniales que sufren los perjudicados, ya se trate de lucro cesante o de daño emergente. Conforme a lo establecido en la propia Ley, las más relevantes de esas indemnizaciones requieren una valoración actuarial, siendo ése el caso de la indemnización ...

  12. Risk allocation in a public-private catastrophe insurance system : an actuarial analysis of deductibles, stop-loss, and premiums

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Dijkstra, T. K.

    2015-01-01

    A public-private (PP) partnership could be a viable arrangement for providing insurance coverage for catastrophe events, such as floods and earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to obtain insights into efficient and practical allocations of risk in a PP insurance system. In particular, this st

  13. Treatment referral for sex offenders based on clinical judgment versus actuarial risk assessment: match and analysis of mismatch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smid, W.J.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Wever, E.C.; van Beek, D.

    2013-01-01

    The Risk Need Responsivity (RNR) principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2010) dictate that higher risk sex offenders should receive more intensive treatment. The present study investigates how clinically based treatment assignment relates to risk level in a sex offender sample from The Netherlands. Correlatio

  14. Thoughts and some suggestions about actuarial science education in China colleges%对我国高校精算教育现状的思考与几点建议

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱江红; 王金花

    2011-01-01

    总结了我国高校精算教育在扣多年的发展历程中所取得的成绩,分析了我国高校精算教育发展的现状,并对存在的一些问题提出了一些建议。%This article summarized the results of the developing of the actuarial science education of China colleges and,universities during the 2 decades, discussed the current situation of our actuarial science education, and provided some suggestions according to the problems.

  15. Tablas de vida para cálculo actuarial de rentas vitalicias y retiro programado. Costa Rica circa 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Rosero Bixby

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Se presentan las tablas completas de mortalidad de Costa Rica del periodo 1995- 2000 y se describe el procedimiento seguido en su estimación. Este procedimiento incluye una evaluación detallada de la información básica, especialmente de los errores censales de declaración de la edad entre los adultos mayores. Predominan los errores de exageración de la edad, los cuales inflan la población de edades avanzadas, especialmente de los 80 años en adelante. Por ejemplo, la población de 95 años y más de edad del censo está inflada en 22%. Las tablas de vida incluyen una extrapolación de la mortalidad para edades mayores de 100 años. Con una muestra de alrededor de 7 mil adultos mayores se determina que el patrón de mortalidad de los derecho-habientes de pensión es menor que el de la población general. La esperanza de vida al nacer de hombres y mujeres resultó de 74,6 y 79,4 años, respectivamente y a la edad 60 fue de 20,6 y 23,2 años, respectivamente, en toda la población de Costa Rica, y de 22,0 y 25,3 años entre los derecho-habientes de pensión. Para tomar en cuenta la disminución de la mortalidad que probablemente ocurrirá en el futuro en Costa Rica se recomienda usar la tabla de vida proyectada para 2020-25. Se seleccionó este periodo porque la esperanza de vida a la edad 65 es muy parecida a la estimada para la cohorte de nacidos en 1940, la cual se considera representativa de quienes se pensionarán en el corto y mediano plazo. Se presenta la tabla completa de 2020-25, corregida por la menor mortalidad de los derecho-habientes, para que sea utilizada en el cálculo actuarial de pensiones vitalicias y retiro programado en el periodo 2000-5. La esperanza de vida a la edad 60 en esta tabla resultó de 23,6 para los hombres y 26,8 para las mujeres, es decir, unos tres años más altas que las estimadas para la población de Costa Rica 1995-2000. Se recomienda actualizar estas estimaciones cada 5 años.

  16. Tablas de vida para cálculo actuarial de rentas vitalicias y retiro programado. Costa Rica circa 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosero-Bixby, Luis

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Se presentan las tablas completas de mortalidad de Costa Rica del periodo 1995-2000 y se describe el procedimiento seguido en su estimación. Este procedimiento incluye una evaluación detallada de la información básica, especialmente de los errores censales de declaración de la edad entre los adultos mayores. Predominan los errores de exageración de la edad, los cuales inflan la población de edades avanzadas, especialmente de los 80 años en adelante. Por ejemplo, la población de 95 años y más de edad del censo está inflada en 22%. Las tablas de vida incluyen una extrapolación de la mortalidad para edades mayores de 100 años. Con una muestra de alrededor de 7 mil adultos mayores se determina que el patrón de mortalidad de los derecho-habientes de pensión es menor que el de la población general. La esperanza de vida al nacer de hombres y mujeres resultó de 74,6 y 79,4 años, respectivamente y a la edad 60 fue de 20,6 y 23,2 años, respectivamente, en toda la población de Costa Rica, y de 22,0 y 25,3 años entre los derecho-habientes de pensión. Para tomar en cuenta la disminución de la mortalidad que probablemente ocurrirá en el futuro en Costa Rica se recomienda usar la tabla de vida proyectada para 2020-25. Se seleccionó este periodo porque la esperanza de vida a la edad 65 es muy parecida a la estimada para la cohorte de nacidos en 1940, la cual se considera representativa de quienes se pensionarán en el corto y mediano plazo. Se presenta la tabla completa de 2020-25, corregida por la menor mortalidad de los derecho-habientes, para que sea utilizada en el cálculo actuarial de pensiones vitalicias y retiro programado en el periodo 2000-5. La esperanza de vida a la edad 60 en esta tabla resultó de 23,6 para los hombres y 26,8 para las mujeres, es decir, unos tres años más altas que las estimadas para la población de Costa Rica 1995-2000. Se recomienda actualizar estas estimaciones cada 5 años.

  17. Research on Actuarial Models about Reform of Endowment Insurance about Institutional Organization in China%事业单位养老保险制度改革精算模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任勇

    2015-01-01

    从中国事业单位养老保险改革实践出发,在西方寿险精算理论和精算模型基础上,分别建立事业单位养老保险制度改革过程中关于新人、中人和即将退休人员的养老保险精算模型。并分别给出关于新人、中人和即将退休人员的养老保险应由事业单位和政府财政需要补贴资金精算现值的计算公式。%Based on the practice of reform of endowment insurance about Institutional Organization in China , actuarial theory of life insurance and actuarial models in the West,actuarial models about the newcomer,men-in-service and retiring staff are set up respectively,and the actuarial present values of subsidy due to Institutional Or⁃ganization and Government fiscal revenue are given too,aiming at the purpose of providing the basis for the re-form.

  18. Data Analysis Strategies and Designs for Substance Abuse Research. Research Issues 13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentler, Peter M., Ed.; And Others

    This volume contains 10 original papers discussing methodologies applicable to performing psychosocial research on substance abuse, particularly abuse with drugs. Eight data analysis strategies are discussed by the authors: automatic interaction detection, actuarial prediction, cluster and typological analysis, path analysis, factor analysis,…

  19. Homogeneous Beliefs and Mispricing of Black-Scholes Model Option Pricing Model Based on Actuarial Method%同质信念与 Black-Scholes 公式定价偏差--基于期权定价的保险精算方法∗

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柯政; 秦梦

    2015-01-01

    本文分析了包括 BS 的鞅方法在内的四种期权定价方法.Mogens Bldt 和郑红给出的保险精算定价方法是非套利定价,缺少足够的理论基础.另外,存在同质信念的市场上 BS 定价并非完全无套利,如果对不同股票进行分散化投资,只要基础资产种类足够多,也可套取利益.不同投资者的漂移率取同一常数μ体现了他们的同质信念,与弱有效的现实市场情况相符.进一步分析得出结论,即使存在同质信念,如果μt 是一个可料过程而非常数,会使得精算定价难以计算确定期望,从而无效.根据 SAS 软件的模拟结果,在同质信念下,精算套利定价显著高于 BS 鞅方法定价.通过恒生股指期权的实证检验,说明同质信念下的漂移率更适合取同一常数而不是可料过程,实证检验发现精算套利理论价格与实际价格差距很小,说明此方法比较有效.%This paper analyzed the four option pricing methods including the martingale method.Mogens Bldt and Hong Zheng gave actuarial pricing methods for options respectively,however,both of the methods are not non-arbitrage lack ade-quate theoretical basis.In addition,BS pricing method is not completely non-arbitrage,for diversified investment at different stock,as long as a sufficient number,may make profit.Moreover,the same drift of stock for different investors embodies homogeneous beliefs,which complies with weak efficient market assumption in real market.Further analysis concludes that,e-ven if homogeneous beliefs exist,the drift of stock could be a previsible process,which results in difficulty to calculate and de-termine the expectations in actuarial pricing and thus invalids the pricing in actuarial method.According to the simulation run by SAS,with homogeneous assumption,actuarial non-arbitrage pricing gives significantly higher price for options than BS. Through empirical test of the Hang Seng index options,the authors

  20. Sex offender treatment outcome, actuarial risk, and the aging sex offender in Canadian corrections: a long-term follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olver, Mark E; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gu, Deqiang; Wong, Stephen C P

    2013-08-01

    The present study is an examination of sex offender treatment outcome in a large national cohort of Canadian Federally incarcerated sex offenders followed up an average of 11.7 years postrelease. A brief actuarial risk scale (BARS), which predicted sexual and violent recidivism, was created for the purposes of the present study to control for risk-related differences between treated and untreated offenders. In total, 732 offenders were identified as having completed (n = 625) or not attended (n = 107) a sex offender treatment program and for whom sufficient information was available to complete the scale. Controlling for risk and individual differences in follow-up time using Cox regression survival analyses and an 8-year fixed follow-up period, treated sex offenders demonstrated significantly lower rates of violent, but not sexual, recidivism. When the treated and untreated groups were stratified by risk level, significant differences were observed only among moderate or high risk offenders. Some significant group differences also emerged on indicators of recidivism severity, with treated offenders demonstrating slower times to sexual reoffense and lower scores on a quantified metric of sexual and violent recidivism severity after controlling for risk. Differences in recidivism base rates between treated and untreated offenders were also larger in magnitude for younger offenders (i.e., under age 50 at release), than for older offenders; however, interactions between age and treatment were not found. The findings are consistent with the risk principle and have possible implications regarding the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk.

  1. Propuesta de formulación financiero-actuarial de un seguro de dependencia y acercamiento a una aplicación práctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mª Manuela Segovia

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available En los países industrializados, convergen dos fenómenos demográficos, la longevidad y la escasa natalidad, que provocan un envejecimiento de la población y con ello una serie de procesos sociales que son necesarios atender. Uno de ellos, es la cobertura de la dependencia de las personas mayores, entendiendo por dependencia, la necesidad de ayuda para realizar las tareas básicas de la vida diaria. España se encuentra en la actualidad en plena discusión parlamentaria para regular mediante ley la dependencia y cubrir el avance de este problema que en los próximos años se verá agravado por nuestra evolución demográfica y social. Esta ley pretende establecer las bases para su atención mediante un seguro de dependencia, bien de cobertura pública por parte del Estado o bien por aseguradoras privadas. El trabajo presentado en este congreso forma parte de un estudio amplio sobre la dependencia en España y abordará una aproximación a la formulación actuarial de un seguro de dependencia partiendo del uso de cadenas de Markov para un modelo de múltiples estados, y un acercamiento a la aplicación práctica mediante el análisis de datos sobre discapacidad de nuestro país.

  2. A Policy Analysis of Public School Retirement Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tara; Teeter, Matt

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this policy analysis was to examine the Missouri Public School Retirement System (PSRS). The team investigated the under-funding of PSRS, relating to sustainability and the feasibility of the system's use of one lever, contribution rate, to stabilize the retirement system, and to meet actuary needs and governmental requirements. The…

  3. Empirical analysis of retirement pension and IFRS adoption effects on accounting information: glance at IT industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, JeongYeon

    2014-01-01

    This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm's financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended.

  4. Empirical Analysis of Retirement Pension and IFRS Adoption Effects on Accounting Information: Glance at IT Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JeongYeon Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm’s financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended.

  5. Empirical Analysis of Retirement Pension and IFRS Adoption Effects on Accounting Information: Glance at IT Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm's financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended. PMID:25013868

  6. 机关事业单位基本养老保险的精算应计负债%Actuarial Accrued Liability of the Basic Old-age Insurance for Government and Public Institution Employees

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨再贵

    2016-01-01

    By establishing actuarial model through a parallelogram framework ,this paper measured the actuarial accrued liability of the basic old‐age insurance for government and public institution employees at the beginning of 2015 .Raising the re‐tirement age ,interest rate ,contribution rate and salary growth rate will decrease the actuarial accrued liability ,where the effect of the retirement age is very much strong and that of the interest rate is very strong .Raising the benefit yearly growth rate , work‐age salary growth rate and age‐linked‐benefit growth rate will increase the actuarial accrued liability ,where the effect of the benefit yearly growth rate is very strong ..To control the scale of actuarial accrued liability ,it is necessary to moderately postpone retirement ,to raise the yield rate of investment and salary grow th rate by innovations .With these measures ,the con‐tribution rate can be reduced .%通过养老金测算的平行四边形框架建立养老保险的精算模型应计负债,测算机关事业单位基本养老保险在2015年初的精算应计负债。提高退休年龄、利率、缴费率和工资增长率都会降低精算应计负债,退休年龄的影响非常强,利率的影响也很强。提高养老金增长率、工龄工资增长率和同年度养老金随年龄增长率都会增加精算应计负债,养老金增长率的影响很强。为控制机关事业单位基本养老保险精算应计负债,可适时适度提高退休年龄,创造条件提高投资收益率,通过全社会创新提高社会生产力来提高工资增长率,与此同时可降低缴费率。

  7. CIMPA-UNESCO-MESR-MINECO-MOROCCO research school entitled Statistical Methods and Applications in Finance and Actuarial Science

    CERN Document Server

    Essaky, El; Vives, Josep

    2016-01-01

    This book is the outcome of the CIMPA School on Statistical Methods and Applications in Insurance and Finance, held in Marrakech and Kelaat M'gouna (Morocco) in April 2013. It presents two lectures and seven refereed papers from the school, offering the reader important insights into key topics. The first of the lectures, by Frederic Viens, addresses risk management via hedging in discrete and continuous time, while the second, by Boualem Djehiche, reviews statistical estimation methods applied to life and disability insurance. The refereed papers offer diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on subjects including optimal control, financial modeling using stochastic differential equations, pricing and hedging of financial derivatives, and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter of the volume includes a comprehensive bibliography to promote further research.

  8. 一种利率双随机条件下的有序状态寿险精算模型%One Actuarial Models of Orderly Life Insurance under the Condition of Dual Random Interest Rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙荣

    2012-01-01

    有序状态的联合寿险依赖于多个被保险人的死亡顺序,与一般的联合寿险相比具有一定的复杂性.本文研究联合生命保险中有序条件的复合状态寿险精算函数,对利率采用反射Brownian运动和Poisson过程的双随机模型及死亡均匀分布假设下的一种联合投保有序条件的复合状态建模,给出了生命年金、保险金、纯保费精算现值及保险金的二阶矩的表达式.运用这些表达式可以对联合投保有序状态的保险损失风险进行分析.%Joint life insurance of orderly compound status depends on the death order of the insured persons. As compared with the general insurances, it is of more complexity to a certain extent. This paper investigates the actuarial function of joint life insurance of orderly compound status. Both reflected standard Brownian motion and Possion process are used to model the stochastic interest rates and further it is employed to construct the actuarial model. The formulas of joint life insurance of compound status are proposed, including the life annuities, insurance, actuarial present value of net premiums and second moments of insurance. Based on the formulas so proposed, the loss risk of the joint life insurance of orderly compound status can reasonably be analyzed.

  9. The Determination of Pension Levels for Urban Residents in Zhejiang Province by Actuarial Model%精算模型对浙江省城镇居民社会养老保险水平的测定

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    应苗红

    2011-01-01

    The current situation of social old-age insurance level for urban residents of Zhejiang Province were expounded and actuarial model was used to analyze reasons of "low" social old-age insurance level, and suggestions for social old-age insurance level were put forward.%阐述了浙江省城镇居民社会养老保险水平现状及精算模型对社会养老保险水平“低度”原因分析,并提出提高社会养老保险水平的建议.

  10. Research on Actuarial Present Value of Inheritance Annuity under Different Dependent Structure%相依情形下继承年金精算现值的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张兵强; 陶菊春

    2012-01-01

    Based on dependent multi-life status,actuarial present value of the husband and wife joint inheritance annuity,the son to father's endowment type inheritance annuity and the father to the children raisin type inheritance annuity was studied.The effects of individual dependence to life was analysed by basis of comonotonicity,and the dependences of individual life was settled by using Copula function,finally the husband and wife joint heritance annuity was studied.The research result indicates that dependency degree of the individual life has important influence for inheritance annuity actuarial present value,the individual dependency degree more high,inheritance annuity actuarial present value is small,especially,in the individual life remaining independent of each other,inheritance annuity actuarial present value obtained maximal.%在多生命状态各个体剩余寿命相依的情形下,研究了夫妻联合型继承年金、子对父的养老型继承年金和父对子的抚养型继承年金的精算现值.本文主要利用同单调关系讨论了个体之间的相依关系对其寿命的影响,进而利用Copula函数处理了个体生命间的相依性,最后通过实例研究了夫妻联合型继承年金.研究结果表明:个体生命间的相依性程度对继承年金精算现值有着重要影响,个体间相依性程度越高,继承年金的精算现值越小,特别地,在个体剩余寿命相互独立时,继承年金的精算现值达到极大.

  11. Diseño, desarrollo, e implementación de una hoja electrónica para el análisis y cálculo actuarial

    OpenAIRE

    Falcones Collantes, Eduardo Xavier; Sandoya Sanchez, Fernando

    2009-01-01

    En el presente artículo se presenta a breves rasgos el diseño e implementación de una hoja electrónica actuarial para el análisis de modelos de seguros y rentas, a través de sus valores actuariales, así como para el cálculo de primas netas de inventario y comercial con sus reservas respectivas para distintos planes actuariales, desarrollado bajo el lenguaje de programación Visual Basic 6.0 incluidas las herramientas que este presenta para la creación de componentes de código Active X....

  12. Life insurance theory actuarial perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Vylder, F Etienne

    1997-01-01

    This book is different from all other books on Life Insurance by at least one of the following characteristics 1-4. 1. The treatment of life insurances at three different levels: time-capital, present value and price level. We call time-capital any distribution of a capital over time: (*) is the time-capital with amounts Cl, ~, ... , C at moments Tl, T , ..• , T resp. N 2 N For instance, let (x) be a life at instant 0 with future lifetime X. Then the whole oO oO life insurance A is the time-capital (I,X). The whole life annuity ä is the x x time-capital (1,0) + (1,1) + (1,2) + ... + (I,'X), where 'X is the integer part ofX. The present value at 0 of time-capital (*) is the random variable T1 T TN Cl V + ~ v , + ... + CNV . (**) In particular, the present value ofA 00 and ä 00 is x x 0 0 2 A = ~ and ä = 1 + v + v + ... + v'X resp. x x The price (or premium) of a time-capital is the expectation of its present value. In particular, the price ofA 00 and äx 00 is x 2 A = E(~) and ä = E(I + v + v + ... + v'X...

  13. Actuarial considerations on genetic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Grys, D J

    1997-08-29

    In the UK the majority of life insurers employ relatively liberal underwriting standards so that people can easily gain access to life assurance cover. Up to 95% of applicants are accepted at standard terms. If genetic testing becomes widespread then the buying habits of the public may change. Proportionately more people with a predisposition to major types of disease may take life assurance cover while people with no predisposition may take proportionately less. A model is used to show the possible effect. However, the time-scales are long and the mortality of assured people is steadily improving. The change in buying habits may result in the rate of improvement slowing down. In the whole population, the improvement in mortality is likely to continue and could improve faster if widespread genetic testing results in earlier diagnosis and treatment. Life insurers would not call for genetic tests and need not see the results of previous tests except for very large sums assured. In the UK, life insurers are unlikely to change their underwriting standards, and are extremely unlikely to bring in basic premium rating systems that give discounts on the premium or penalty points according to peoples genetic profile. The implications of widespread genetic testing on medical insurance and some health insurance covers may be more extreme.

  14. The Accuracy of Recidivism Risk Assessments for Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of 118 Prediction Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R. Karl; Morton-Bourgon, Kelly E.

    2009-01-01

    This review compared the accuracy of various approaches to the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. On the basis of a meta-analysis of 536 findings drawn from 118 distinct samples (45,398 sexual offenders, 16 countries), empirically derived actuarial measures were more accurate than unstructured professional judgment for all outcomes…

  15. 大学生科研训练与保险精算类课程教学的实践%Practice of Scientific Training for Undergraduates and Teaching in Actuarial Curriculum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史敬涛; 陈建良

    2011-01-01

    本文结合大学生科研训练项目的开展,针对数学专业本科生的自身特点,对保险精算类课程的教学模式和方法进行了分析探讨。实践表明,数学专业本科生保险精算类课程体系的建设刚刚起步,是一项长期和艰巨的工作,迫切需要越来越多的既有扎实数学理论基础又熟悉金融保险实际业务的教师和从业人员的共同努力。%In this paper,combined with the development of scientific training project for undergraduates,we analyze and discuss the teaching patterns and methods of actuarial curriculum with respect to the characteristics of undergraduates majoring in mathematics.Practice shows that the construction of actuarial curriculum for undergraduates majoring in mathematics has just started and it is a longtime and hard work.Joint efforts of more and more teachers and practitioners who not only have strong basis of mathematical theory,but also know well the real practice of financial and insurance are imminently needed.

  16. Actuarial Analysis of Influence on Inflation to Life Insurances%通货膨胀对寿险影响的精算分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许璐

    2008-01-01

    利用利息理论与寿险精算原理,从精算的角度分析和证明通货膨胀对不同交费方式、不同保险期限年金保险的影响,进而说明通货膨胀对其他寿险的影响,即年交保费的实际现值与通货膨胀呈负相关关系.

  17. 精算数学教学中的问题分析与对策研究%Problem Analysis and Strategies in Teaching Actuarial Mathematics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张莉

    2009-01-01

    文章从师资队伍、教材选择、教学方法与手段三个方面具体讨论了精算数学的学科特点、教学现状,并提出了合理建议,力求探索一个适合我国保险业发展的精算数学教学体系.

  18. Quantitative Analysis of Papers in the Field of Actuary%国内精算研究文献的定量分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘婧; 华薇娜

    2004-01-01

    本文根据中文期刊数据库与中国期刊全文数据库检索到有关精算方面的文献114篇,通过对这些文献多方面地整理、归类,并结合相关定量、定性分析以及一系列技术分析后加以总结与说明.

  19. 随机利率下的反向抵押贷款精算定价模型研究%Actuarial Pricing Models of Reverse Mortgage with the Stochastic Interest Rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贾念念; 赵雪; 杨文荟

    2015-01-01

    反向抵押贷款是应对养老问题的一个创新模式。本文为改进传统反向抵押贷款定价模型必须建立在固定利率基础之上的缺点,利用Wiener过程和负二项分布对利息力积累函数进行联合建模,构建了随机利率下的反向抵押贷款精算定价模型及死亡均匀分布(UDD)假设下随机利率反向抵押贷款精算定价模型。最后,本文运用Matlab软件对随机利率下精算定价模型进行数值测算,比较了不同参数的变化对贷款额的影响程度,得到随机利率下的反向抵押贷款精算定价模型对借款人具有一定的吸引力、贷款利率较房产价值年均升值率和房产折旧率更敏感、递增年金模型受贷款利率变动影响较小等结论。上述结论为我国反向抵押贷款的政策制定与定价提供了一定的理论依据。%The reverse mortgage is a creative measure to support the aged people. for improving shortcomings that the traditional reverse mortgage loan pricing model must be established on the basis of fixed interest rate, this paper builds the united model of accumulation function of interest force by process and negative-binomial distribution, and constructs reverse mortgages actuarial pricing model under the stochastic interest rate and the stochastic interest rate reverse actuarial pricing model under UDD assumption. Finally, this paper uses the Matlab software to change different parameters of actuarial pricing model under stochastic interest rate influence on the degree of the loan, it is concluded that the conclusion of the model is in line with the actual situation, therefore, it has important practical significance to study stochastic interest rate reverse mortgage loan pricing model.

  20. Análisis actuarial del fondo de jubilación de los empleados civiles de la comisión de tránsito de la provincia del Guayas

    OpenAIRE

    Duran Vinueza, Walter; Perez, . Werhli

    2009-01-01

    El presente estudio tiene por objeto analizar la situación financiera actual del Fondo de Jubilación de los empleados civiles de la Comisión de Tránsito de la Provincia del Guayas. No sin antes, describir los sistemas de pensiones públicos y privados y la aplicación de los mismos, en diferentes países de América, incluyendo al Ecuador y los aspectos legales que sustentan la seguridad pública social en dicho país. Así mismo, se ofrece un marco teórico actuarial de los modelos de pensiones y se...

  1. 分数跳-扩散O-U过程下幂型期权定价%Actuarial approach to power option pricing under fractional jump-diffusion O-U process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    符双; 薛红

    2014-01-01

    This paper assumed that stock price followed the fractional jump-diffusion O-U process, and the riskless interest rate and the volatility rate of stock were time function.The power option pricing model was presented by an actuarial approach.The call option and put option pricing formulae of power option were obtained.%假设股票价格遵循分数跳-扩散O-U过程,且无风险利率和股票波动率均为时间的确定性函数,利用保险精算的方法,建立了分数跳扩散O-U过程下的幂型期权定价模型,获得了幂型期权的看涨和看跌定价公式。

  2. Análisis actuarial del fondo de jubilación de los empleados civiles de la comisión de tránsito de la provincia del Guayas

    OpenAIRE

    Duran Vinueza, Walter; Perez, Werhli

    2009-01-01

    El presente estudio tiene por objeto analizar la situación financiera actual del Fondo de Jubilación de los empleados civiles de la Comisión de Tránsito de la Provincia del Guayas. No sin antes, describir los sistemas de pensiones públicos y privados y la aplicación de los mismos, en diferentes países de América, incluyendo al Ecuador y los aspectos legales que sustentan la seguridad pública social en dicho país. Así mismo, se ofrece un marco teórico actuarial de los modelos de pensiones y se...

  3. 基于随机利率和多生命体相依的联合保险精算模型%Combined InsuranceActuarial Model under Stochastic Interest Rate and Dependent Lifetime

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵丽霞

    2014-01-01

    By simulating mortality rate through Common Shock model and describing the term struc-ture of interest rate with Wiener process,an actuarial model for family combined insurance under stochastic interest rate and dependent life time is designed.Then,the theoretical formulas of the balanced premium are obtained,on the condition that the death happens uniformly in tail age,the approximate methods are given which are feasible in insurance practices.Finally,influences of stochastic interest rate and death rate to insurance pricing are analyzed.%采用 Common Shock 模型模拟死亡率,并用 Wiener 过程刻画利率期限结构,构建了基于随机利率和生命体相依的联合保险的纯保费精算模型。在此基础上,导出均衡年保费的理论计算公式,并在尾部年龄服从均匀分布的假设下,给出保险实务操作中可行的近似计算方法。最后,通过数值模拟分析了随机利率、死亡率对保险定价的影响。

  4. Nonparametric Bayesian Inference for Mean Residual Life Functions in Survival Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Poynor, Valerie; Kottas, Athanasios

    2014-01-01

    Modeling and inference for survival analysis problems typically revolves around different functions related to the survival distribution. Here, we focus on the mean residual life function which provides the expected remaining lifetime given that a subject has survived (i.e., is event-free) up to a particular time. This function is of direct interest in reliability, medical, and actuarial fields. In addition to its practical interpretation, the mean residual life function characterizes the sur...

  5. ANÁLISIS Y CONTEXTUALIZACIÓN DE LOS ASPECTOS DE ÍNDOLE ACTUARIAL Y DE SEGURIDAD SOCIAL DE LA LEY 35/2015 DE REFORMA DEL SISTEMA PARA LA VALORACIÓN DE LOS DAÑOS Y PERJUICIOS CAUSADOS A LAS PERSONAS EN ACCIDENTES DE CIRCULACIÓN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis María Sáez de Jáuregui Sanz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se analizan y se contextualizan los aspectos de índole actuarial y de seguridad social recogidos en la Ley 35/2015 de reforma del sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación. Los preliminares de la Ley 35/2015 comienzan en 2011 con la creación de una Comisión de Expertos. A partir de ahí, se inicia un proceso que culmina, en primer lugar, en 2014 en Junta Consultiva de Seguros y Fondos de Pensiones con la entrega de un Texto articulado, unas Tablas de indemnización y unas Bases técnicas actuariales que configuran un nuevo y novedoso sistema de valoración y que termina de finalizar –tras su trámite parlamentario con prácticamente nulas modificaciones en lo fundamental– con la entrada en vigor el 1 de enero de 2016 de la Ley 35/2015, recogiéndose por primera vez en el ordenamiento jurídico español un modelo actuarial para indemnizar el lucro cesante y el daño emergente. This paper analyzes and contextualizes the actuarial and social security features of the brand new Law 35/2015 of reform for assessing the damage caused to people in road accidents. Preliminaries of the Law 35/2015 began in 2011 with the creation of a Committee of Experts. From there, a process, culminated first in 2014, in the Advisory Board of Insurance and Pension Funds with the delivery of an articulated text, tables compensation and the actuarial technical bases that form a new and novel assessment system, and ended -after the end of its parliamentary process with virtually no changes in fundamentally- with the entry into force, on January 1st of 2016, of the Law 35/2015, introducing for the first time in the Spanish legal system an actuarial model to compensate people for loss of profits and its consequential damages.

  6. Multiple Attenuation Model and Actuarial Present Value of Pension Scheme Based on CIR Interest Rate%基于CIR利率的养老金计划多元衰减模型与精算现值

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李浩; 侯为波; 张增林

    2016-01-01

    随着我国人口老年化问题的日趋加剧,养老金计划对于老年人口的生活保障愈显得重要。寿险精算理论在科学合理制定保险产品价格方面至关重要。利率是影响价格的最重要因素之一。从长期来看,利率随时间的变化而波动,具有很强的随机波动性。文章考虑利用具有随机波动特性的CIR利率模型,建立养老金多元衰减模型,进而获得延期年金的精算现值解析式。%With the problem of astogeny getting worse,pension schemes are even more vital to the liv⁃ing security of the old. The theory of life contingencies plays an important role in setting the scientif⁃ic and reasonable prices of insurance products. The rate of interest is one of the key factors that af⁃fect prices. In the long run, the rate of interest fluctuates with time going by, enjoying strong and random volatility. To establish the multiple attenuation pattern of pension, the authors consider using the pattern of the rate of interest characterized by random and fluctuant CIR,and then gain the formu⁃la of actuarial present value of deferred annuity.

  7. EL COMPLEMENTO POR MATERNIDAD DE LAS PENSIONES DE LA SEGURIDAD SOCIAL EN ESPAÑA: ANÁLISIS FINANCIERO ACTUARIAL BASADO EN LA MCVL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Enrique Devesa Carpio

    2017-06-01

    gender gap in our country. Hereafter, the characteristics of the Maternity Supplement in Spain and in other countries in which a similar complement has been applied are summarized. The analysis of the methodology used is developed in the following section, stopping in the revision of the Internal Rate of Return, the Replacement Rate, the Gender Gap and the Expenditure associated to the complement. In order to apply this methodology, data have been obtained from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives of 2014. The effect of the complement is cumulative so it is projected into the future, until the system stabilizes the expense generated by the complement, which could be an increase of 2.5% for retirement, surpassing in current euros of 2014, 2,000 million. There is an increase of almost 6% in the average amount of the initial pension of women, decreasing the gender gap in more than 4 points. It is analyzed for the Regimen General and Self-employed and a sensitivity analysis is carried out according to: the variation of the total increase in pension expenditure; the fertility; and the participation of women in the labor market.

  8. 任意支撑上5阶凸随机序的极值分布及其在保险精算中的应用%Extremal distributions for 5-convex stochastic orderings with arbitrary discrete support and applications in actuarial sciences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田有功; 刘转玲

    2014-01-01

    在离散的5阶凸随机序意义下,研究了在R+上的任意离散子集上取值的随机变量的极值分布①。在保险精算应用中,估计了Lunberg调整系数的界。%In the sense of discrete 5-convex stochastic ordering, the extremal distribution for random variables valued in an arbitrary discrete subset of the half-positive real line R+was considered.The bounds of Lundberg’s adjustment coef-ficient in actuarial sciences were estimated.

  9. Actuarial Evaluation of the Financial Operation Situation of China's Basic Medical Insurance System%中国基本医疗保险制度财务运行状况的精算评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曾益; 任超然; 李媛媛

    2012-01-01

    人口老龄化的加剧可能会恶化我国城镇职工医疗保险制度的财务状况。文章在相关参数假设的基础上通过精算模型评估发现,虽然城镇职工医疗保险个人账户累计余额逐年增加,但是在2025年统筹基金将会收不抵支,收支差为-102.11亿元,这一差值还会逐年扩大,至2033年累计结余会使用完毕。针对以上状况,文章在评估了几种改善统筹基金财务状况的政策方案后发现,个人账户与统筹基金合并能将收不抵支和出现赤字的年份推迟到2034年和2046年,这一方案优于其他方案。%The increasing population aging may worsen the financial sit uation of China's urban resident basic medical insurance system. Based on the hypothesis of related parameters and the actuarial evaluation models, this paper finds that the accumulated amount of the urban resident medical sav ings accounts increases year by year, but the income of the pooling fund will not balance the expense in 2025; the gap between income and expenditure is -10. 211 billion yuan and as the gap will gradually widen, the accumulated amount of the pooling fund will be used up in 2033. After evaluating some policy options of improving the financial status of the pooling fund, this pa per shows that the integration of individual medical savings accounts and pooling fund can postpone the time of income over expenditure until 2034 and the time of deficit until 2046, so it is better than other policy options.

  10. Life Insurance Actuarial Model with Returnable Premium

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YanhuaiLang

    2004-01-01

    Insurance is the important aspect of finance. It has been fully developed in the western developed countries. With the fast development of market economy in our country,it is necessary to introduce the alien modern theories and techniques, and at the same time,adapt them to our concrete situation. The model of general life insurance product is to be established in this paper, including deferred life annuities, increasing whole life insurance and returnable premiums. Then through the regulation of various parameters, we can obtain various insurance products.

  11. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  12. A Quasi Actuarial Prospect for Individual Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, William A.

    A conceptual model of individual assessment through the use of biodata responses with minimal input information is outlined. The process is considered especially applicable to industrial psychology. A scored autobiographical data form, which measures the individual's past behavior and experiences, provides for assignment to a specific subgroup…

  13. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Goovaerts; R.J.A. Laeven

    2008-01-01

    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the Esscher

  14. Idade de aparecimento e desaparecimento das pontas rolândicas em 160 crianças acompanhadas ambulatorialmente: estudo atuarial Age of appearance and disappearance of rolandic spikes of 160 children: an actuarial study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MOACIR A. BORGES

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available PROPOSTA: Determinar a idade em que surgem e desaparecem as pontas rolândicas (PR em traçados eletrencefalográficos de rotina. MÉTODO: Estudo prospectivo hospitalar, baseado em 412 eletrencefalogramas de 160 crianças que frequentaram o ambulatório de neuropediatria entre as idades de 1 e 16 anos, no período de março de 1989, a março de 1998. Usou-se o sistema 10/20 para colocação dos eletrodos. As crianças foram dividas, por idade, em quatro grupos (1 a 4; 5 a 8; 9 a 16; 1 a 16 e usou-se o método de curva atuarial, considerando-se como evento, o desaparecimento da PR. RESULTADOS: PR teve distribuição entre meninos e meninas na razão de 64/36. A idade média em que surgiu a PR foi 7 anos (7,2 para homens e 6,6 para mulheres e, num pequeno grupo de crianças que tinha EEG normal anterior ao surgimento da PR, a idade média foi 6,8 anos. Após 7 anos de seguimento, a percentagem de pacientes livres de PRs era 60% para o grupo de 1 a 4 anos na admissão, 84% para os grupos de 5 a 8 anos e 9 a 16 anos. Para o grupo total (1 a 16 anos a percentagem de livres de PR, após 7 anos de seguimento, foi 78%. CONCLUSÃO: O estudo mostra que as PR surgiram, em média, aos 7 anos e têm probabilidade de desaparecimento até 7 anos de seguimento, independetemente da faixa etária de aparecimento.This study aims to determine the age at which the rolandic spikes (RS appear and disappear in routine EEGs. METHOD: It has been carried out a hospital based prospective study of 412 EEGs records of 160 children who had been assisted at the neuropediatric out-patient department during the period between March, 1989 and March,1998. Recordings were made on 8-channel instruments and 10/20 system has been to place the electrodes. The children have been divided into 4 groups, according to their age (1 to 4; 5 to 8; 9 to 16; 1 to 16, and the actuarial curve method has been used to show the disappearance of the rolandic spikes. RESULTS: RS distribution between

  15. An Actuarial Analysis of Implicit Debt Problems of the Current Public Pension System%养老保险金稳性债务问题的精算分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘楚源; 陈岱婉

    2013-01-01

    目前国内对隐性债务问题模型的研究,大都集中于封闭系统内,不能有效的反映投保面扩张等人口变化对隐性债务的动态影响.本文在总结国内外相关研究的基础上,利用代际核算方法,对我国养老保险金封闭系统内的隐性债务和开放系统内的隐性债务进行建模测算;分析测算结果,得出若不考虑新参保者的影响,“中人”的缴费远远不能满足自身养老金发放的需要,若把扩大参保面当成解决隐性债务的方法来考虑,则是否有效,关键还得看工资增长率等影响因素是否在合理范围;最后,分别从体制内和体制外两方面给出解决隐性债务问题的相关建议.

  16. The Nuremberg mind redeemed: a comprehensive analysis of the Rorschachs of Nazi war criminals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnick, M N; Nunno, V J

    1991-08-01

    We examined a blind, actuarial analysis of the Rorschach data of the Nuremberg war criminals (NWC) using Exner's (1974) Comprehensive System in an attempt to prove the convergence of the NWC construct along dimensions of psychological (personality) functioning and to prove its discriminability from other appropriate psychiatric and nonpsychiatric comparison groups. The weaknesses of previous research methodologies are examined and discussed vis-à-vis the historical and theoretical developments of the concepts of authoritarianism, dogmatism, obedience to authority, and the development of the Rorschach Inkblot Technique.

  17. Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple contracts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Marín, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (e.g. fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have

  18. Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Martín, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (eg fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have ma

  19. Risk-Adjusted Analysis of Relevant Outcome Drivers for Patients after More Than Two Kidney Transplants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lampros Kousoulas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients suffering end-stage renal disease, but as the long-term renal allograft survival is limited, most transplant recipients will face graft loss and will be considered for a retransplantation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the patient and graft survival of the 61 renal transplant recipients after second or subsequent renal transplantation, transplanted in our institution between 1990 and 2010, and to identify risk factors related to inferior outcomes. Actuarial patient survival was 98.3%, 94.8%, and 88.2% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Actuarial graft survival was 86.8%, 80%, and 78.1% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Risk-adjusted analysis revealed that only age at the time of last transplantation had a significant influence on patient survival, whereas graft survival was influenced by multiple immunological and surgical factors, such as the number of HLA mismatches, the type of immunosuppression, the number of surgical complications, need of reoperation, primary graft nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, third and subsequent renal transplantation constitute a valid therapeutic option, but inferior outcomes should be expected among elderly patients, hyperimmunized recipients, and recipients with multiple operations at the site of last renal transplantation.

  20. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for salvage nasopharyngectomy via the maxillary swing approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Jimmy Yu Wai; To, Victor Shing Howe; Chow, Velda Ling Yu; Wong, Stanley Thian Sze; Wei, William Ignace

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors for salvage nasopharyngectomy. A retrospective review was conducted on maxillary swing nasopharyngectomy performed between 1998 and 2010. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified prognostic factors affecting actuarial local tumor control and overall survival. The median follow-up duration was 52 months. Among the 268 patients, 79.1% had clear resection margins. The 5-year actuarial local tumor control and overall survival was 74% and 62.1%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, tumor size, resection margin status, and gross tumor in the sphenoid sinus were independent prognostic factors for local tumor control. For overall survival, resection margin status, synchronous cervical nodal recurrence, and cavernous sinus invasion had a negative influence on overall survival after surgery. Extent of nasopharyngectomy should be tailored to the individual tumor to achieve clear resection margins. Cavernous sinus invasion is associated with poor survival outcome, and detailed counseling and meticulous surgical planning is crucial in such circumstances. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. On the Application of Actuarial Techniques in the Teaching of Social Security Fund Management--A Case Study of Pension Fund%精算技术在社会保险基金管理课程教学中的应用--以养老保险为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李锐; 杨雷; 刘倩

    2014-01-01

    Social security fund management is a core curriculum of public management major, is the foundation of the labor and social security curriculum system, is also the skill that students are supposed to master. Case study is on the top of the list. However because of shortage of tools, the course has always been taught by delivering concept. The paper introduces actuarial technique into the course teaching of social security fund management, and improves the curriculum system by combining with the related teaching cases, which can be a good combination of theory and practice.%社会保险基金管理是公共管理核心基础课程之一,是整个劳动与社会保障课程体系的基础,并且是公共管理专业学生必须掌握的专业技能。如何更好地开展该课程的案例教学,是该课程的首要任务,因为缺乏必要的分析工具,一直以来使得该课程以传授基本概念为主。本文将精算技术引入社会保险基金管理课程教学中,并结合养老保险条例开发了相关教学案例,从内容上丰富了该课程体系,并将理论与实务紧密地结合了起来。

  2. Robust Estimation of Value-at-Risk through Distribution-Free and Parametric Approaches Using the Joint Severity and Frequency Model: Applications in Financial, Actuarial, and Natural Calamities Domains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabyasachi Guharay

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Value-at-Risk (VaR is a well-accepted risk metric in modern quantitative risk management (QRM. The classical Monte Carlo simulation (MCS approach, denoted henceforth as the classical approach, assumes the independence of loss severity and loss frequency. In practice, this assumption does not always hold true. Through mathematical analyses, we show that the classical approach is prone to significant biases when the independence assumption is violated. This is also corroborated by studying both simulated and real-world datasets. To overcome the limitations and to more accurately estimate VaR, we develop and implement the following two approaches for VaR estimation: the data-driven partitioning of frequency and severity (DPFS using clustering analysis, and copula-based parametric modeling of frequency and severity (CPFS. These two approaches are verified using simulation experiments on synthetic data and validated on five publicly available datasets from diverse domains; namely, the financial indices data of Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average, chemical loss spills as tracked by the US Coast Guard, Australian automobile accidents, and US hurricane losses. The classical approach estimates VaR inaccurately for 80% of the simulated data sets and for 60% of the real-world data sets studied in this work. Both the DPFS and the CPFS methodologies attain VaR estimates within 99% bootstrap confidence interval bounds for both simulated and real-world data. We provide a process flowchart for risk practitioners describing the steps for using the DPFS versus the CPFS methodology for VaR estimation in real-world loss datasets.

  3. Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, V G

    2011-01-01

    This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

  4. Prognostic factors for relapse in stage I seminoma managed by surveillance: a pooled analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warde, Padraig; Specht, Lena; Horwich, Alan

    2002-01-01

    , and tumor invasion into small vessels [SVI]) as well as age at diagnosis were analyzed for prognostic importance for relapse. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 7.0 years (range, 0.02 to 17.5 years), 121 relapses were observed for an actuarial 5-year relapse-free rate (RFR) of 82.3%. On univariate analysis......PURPOSE: Several management options are available to patients with stage I seminoma, including adjuvant radiotherapy, surveillance, and adjuvant chemotherapy. We performed a pooled analysis of patients from the four largest surveillance studies to better delineate prognostic factors associated......, tumor size (RFR: 4 cm, 76%; P =.003), rete testis invasion (RFR: 86% [absent] v 77% [present], P =.003), and the presence of SVI (RFR: 86% [absent] v 77% [present], P =.038) were predictive of relapse. On multivariate analysis, tumor size ( 4 cm, hazard ratio 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 3...

  5. On capital allocation for stochastic arrangement increasing actuarial risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Xiaoqing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the increasing convex ordering of the optimal discounted capital allocations for stochastic arrangement increasing risks with stochastic arrangement decreasing occurrence times. The application to optimal allocation of policy limits is presented as an illustration as well.

  6. The Actuarial Turn in the Science of Learning Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danforth, Scot

    2011-01-01

    In the mid-1970s, Donald Hammill and his colleagues authored three scathing critiques of the two most trusted scientific traditions of learning disability treatment--movement education and psycholinguistic training (Hammill, 1972; Hammill & Larsen, 1974; Hammill, Goodman, & Wiederholt, 1974). These critical reviews of research rejected the older…

  7. Quants at the Gate: The Unique Education of Actuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halfond, Jay A.; Horwitz, Lois K.

    2012-01-01

    An academic discipline and a profession eventually converge through the relationship, division of labor and trust between universities and professional associations--and their mutual respect for the authority and the respective roles of one another. Sometimes, professional associations evaluate academic programs or even provide an examination at…

  8. Fare actuarial algorithm%票价精算法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶晓东

    2001-01-01

    @@ 要科学、准确地核算公交票价,确非易事,因为变数太多.原材料价格、零配件价格、人工费用及客流量等都随市场的变化而变化.但从统计学的观点看,不管怎么变,在一定的时间段内,总有其变化的趋势和幅度,也就是说,在某一计算时间上,可以精确地计算出票价.如果考虑各种变化的趋势和幅度,可以比较准确地计算出某一时段的公交票价.

  9. The Actuarial Turn in the Science of Learning Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danforth, Scot

    2011-01-01

    In the mid-1970s, Donald Hammill and his colleagues authored three scathing critiques of the two most trusted scientific traditions of learning disability treatment--movement education and psycholinguistic training (Hammill, 1972; Hammill & Larsen, 1974; Hammill, Goodman, & Wiederholt, 1974). These critical reviews of research rejected the older…

  10. 29 CFR 4010.8 - Plan actuarial information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... contributions used to increase such balances); (ix) A list of amortization bases (shortfall and waiver) under ERISA section 303 and Code section 430, including the year each base was established, the original... measurement date assuming A retires at age 58 and elects to have benefits commence immediately. Since A...

  11. Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiliang

    2014-01-01

    three major technological changes: energy savings on the demand side, efficiency improvements in energy production, and the replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy. Consequently, the analysis of these systems must include strategies for integrating renewable sources...

  12. 河北省被征地农民养老保险替代率的测算与分析%A Calculation and Analysis on the Replacement Rate of the Pension of Security System for Land-expropriated Peasants in Hebci Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李佳; 陈世金

    2012-01-01

    河北省被征地农民基本养老保险制度自2005年颁布以来,根据缴费方式及待遇领取的不同,可以将其分为“精算型”被征地农民养老保险制度和“低保型”被征地农民养老保险制度。根据这两种制度缴费方式及养老金待遇调整的特点,构建了两种制度下养老保险替代率的精算模型,结合灰色预测模型GM(1,1)及计量经济学的原理对相关数据进行处理,并分别用石家庄市和秦皇岛市数据进行两种精算模型的实证分析,得出从长期看“低保型”被征地农民保险制度设计的养老金替代率水平要高于“精算型”的替代率的结论,根据模型分析结果给出结论及相关建议。%Since the pension of security system for land-expropriatod peasants in Hebei province has been promulgate in 2005, according to the diversity of paying the fee and receiving pension, it can be divided into "Actuarial-Type" and "Minimum Standard Type" of the pension of security system for land-expropriated peasants. This paper builds the replacement rate of pension actuarial model under the two systems. Combining the gray prediction model GM ( 1, 1 ) and econometric knowledge of the relevant data processing, and using actuarial data for empirical analysis of the mod- el in Shijiazhuang and Qinhuangdao City, it has been concluded that from the long term, "actuarial-type" system for land-exprepriated peasants is lower than "Minimum Standard Type" of the replacement rate of the conclusions. Final- ly, the paper gives conclusions and recommendations according to the model analysis.

  13. Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Maurin, Krzysztof

    1980-01-01

    The extraordinarily rapid advances made in mathematics since World War II have resulted in analysis becoming an enormous organism spread­ ing in all directions. Gone for good surely are the days of the great French "courses of analysis" which embodied the whole of the "ana­ lytical" knowledge of the times in three volumes-as the classical work of Camille Jordan. Perhaps that is why present-day textbooks of anal­ ysis are disproportionately modest relative to the present state of the art. More: they have "retreated" to the state before Jordan and Goursat. In recent years the scene has been changing rapidly: Jean Dieudon­ ne is offering us his monumentel Elements d'Analyse (10 volumes) written in the spirit of the great French Course d'Analyse. To the best of my knowledge, the present book is the only one of its size: starting from scratch-from rational numbers, to be precise-it goes on to the theory of distributions, direct integrals, analysis on com­ plex manifolds, Kahler manifolds, the theory of sheave...

  14. Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelazeem, Maha; El-Sawy, El-Sawy K.; Gobashy, Mohamed M.

    2013-06-01

    Ar Rika fault zone constitutes one of the two major parts of the NW-SE Najd fault system (NFS), which is one of the most prominent structural features located in the east of the center of the Arabian Shield, Saudi Arabia. By using Enhancement Thematic Mapper data (ETM+) and Principle Component Analysis (PCA), surface geological characteristics, distribution of rock types, and the different trends of linear features and faults are determined in the study area. First and second order magnetic gradients of the geomagnetic field at the North East of Wadi Ar Rika have been calculated in the frequency domain to map both surface and subsurface lineaments and faults. Lineaments as deduced from previous studies, suggest an extension of the NFS beneath the cover rocks in the study area. In the present study, integration of magnetic gradients and remote sensing analysis that resulted in different valuable derivative maps confirm the subsurface extension of some of the surface features. The 3D Euler deconvolution, the total gradient, and the tilt angle maps have been utilized to determine accurately the distribution of shear zones, the tectonic implications, and the internal structures of the terranes in the Ar Rika quadrangle in three dimensions.

  15. Research on the Sustainable Development of Individual Account Pension System—An Analysis Based on Representative Individual Actuarial Balance%个人账户养老金制度可持续发展问题研究——基于代表性个体精算平衡的分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚金海

    2012-01-01

    人口老龄化已经成为一个世界性的问题,它对宏观经济和社会等诸多方面都带来了实质性的冲击,这种冲击具有时间上的持久性和空间上的广泛性,其中养老金制度体系面临的冲击和挑战首当其冲.在人口老龄化的冲击下,现收现付的养老金制度体系迫切要求进行根本性的变革.通过一个代表性个体的精算平衡模型,对个人账户养老金替代率的相关影响因素进行实证研究;应从提高个人账户养老基金收益率、退休年龄和个人账户缴费率三个方面入手,以实现个人账户养老金制度的可持续发展.

  16. Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-05-01

    The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

  17. Comparing Military Retirement to the California Highway Patrol Pension Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    the 2012 Actuarial Cost Analysis performed by CalPERS (Glazier, 2012) . DOD promotion estimates are based on the professional experience of the author...the military retirement system fiscal year 2011, Alexandria, VA: DoD Office of the Actuary . Glazier, R. (2012). Actuarial Cost analysis proposal for... develop solutions to military problems. The unique risks to which service members are exposed require a different analogue to ensure a successful

  18. 精算平衡原则下的企业职工基本养老保险改革研究──基于制度“新人”的单体分析视角%Study on the Basic Endowment Insurance System of Enterprise Employees under the Principle of Actuarial Balance-From the Perspective of“New Insured”Policy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    盖根路; 温净; 贺志群

    2014-01-01

    There are many problems existing in the basic endowment insurance system of enterprise employees, which show no fairness nor sustainability. And if no actions are taken,the goal of basic pension’s national co-ordination would not be fully realized. With the principle of actuarial balance between the fees and pension benefits,the existing system must go through effective reform. We should insist freemasonry and incentive coexistence and reform the approaches of the original pension which is linked to employees’average wages. With the average life expectancy at retirement as a divisor,taking into account Masonic life factors,we should reform the basic pension approach which is linked to individual indexation wages. Also,using retirement and post-retirement average expectancy as a divisor,we shall improve the approach of personal accounts pension to establish a pension mechanism which connects with contributions and retirement age. Furthermore,a stable pension adjustment mechanism linked with wages’growth should also be built to achieve the goal of pension national co-ordination in a fair and sustainable system.%现行企业职工基本养老保险制度存在许多问题,不公平也不可持续,不改革实现基础养老金全国统筹。在缴费和领取养老金待遇精算平衡的原则下,必须对现行制度进行有效改革。坚持共济与激励共存,以“超额累退”算法改革原来与在岗职工平均工资挂钩的基础养老金计发办法;以退休时的平均预期余命为除数,同时考虑生命共济因素,改革与个人指数化平均缴费工资挂钩的基础养老金计发办法;以退休时和退休后每年的平均预期余命为除数,改革个人账户养老金计发办法,建立养老金与缴费贡献和退休年龄密切相关的联系机制。此外要建立与工资增长挂钩的稳定的养老金调整机制,在公平可持续的制度下实现基础养老金全国统筹。

  19. Manifestation pattern of early-late vaginal morbidity after definitive radiation (chemo)therapy and image-guided adaptive brachytherapy for locally advanced cervical cancer: an analysis from the EMBRACE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchheiner, Kathrin; Nout, Remi A; Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C; Westerveld, Henrike; Haie-Meder, Christine; Petrič, Primož; Mahantshetty, Umesh; Dörr, Wolfgang; Pötter, Richard

    2014-05-01

    Brachytherapy in the treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer has changed substantially because of the introduction of combined intracavitary/interstitial applicators and an adaptive target concept, which is the focus of the prospective, multi-institutional EMBRACE study (www.embracestudy.dk) on image-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IGABT). So far, little has been reported about the development of early to late vaginal morbidity in the frame of IGABT. Therefore, the aim of the present EMBRACE analysis was to evaluate the manifestation pattern of vaginal morbidity during the first 2 years of follow-up. In total, 588 patients with a median follow-up time of 15 months and information on vaginal morbidity were included. Morbidity was prospectively assessed at baseline, every 3 months during the first year, and every 6 months in the second year according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3, regarding vaginal stenosis, dryness, mucositis, bleeding, fistula, and other symptoms. Crude incidence rates, actuarial probabilities, and prevalence rates were analyzed. At 2 years, the actuarial probability of severe vaginal morbidity (grade ≥3) was 3.6%. However, mild and moderate vaginal symptoms were still pronounced (grade ≥1, 89%; grade ≥2, 29%), of which the majority developed within 6 months. Stenosis was most frequently observed, followed by vaginal dryness. Vaginal bleeding and mucositis were mainly mild and infrequently reported. Severe vaginal morbidity within the first 2 years after definitive radiation (chemo)therapy including IGABT with intracavitary/interstitial techniques for locally advanced cervical cancer is limited and is significantly less than has been reported from earlier studies. Thus, the new adaptive target concept seems to be a safe treatment with regard to the vagina being an organ at risk. However, mild to moderate vaginal morbidity is still pronounced with currently applied IGABT, and it needs further attention

  20. Loss Distribution Approach (LDA: metodología actuarial aplicada al riesgo operacional Loss Distribution Approach (LDA: actuarial methodology apply to operational risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Ceferino Franco Arbeláez

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es resultado de un proyecto de investigación sobre la gestión integral del riesgo operacional promovido por la Vicerrectoria de Investigaciones de la Universidad de Medellín, y cofinanciado por una firma comisionista. Se presenta una aplicación del modelo LDA, el cual se basa en la recopilación de los datos de pérdidas históricas (frecuencia y severidad, que se registran internamente en las organizaciones. Dichos datos pueden ser complementados con datos externos. Estas pérdidas son clasificadas en una matriz que relaciona las líneas de negocio de la organización y los eventos operacionales de pérdida, a partir de la cual se calcula la carga de capital. La aplicación se desarrolló para una entidad financiera. El artículo está organizado de la siguiente forma: la primera sección es introductoria al tema. En la segunda parte se presenta formalmente el modelo LDA; luego se realiza una aplicación, y en la cuarta sección se presentan algunas conclusiones.This paper is the result of a research project on integrated management of operational risk, promoted by Universidad de Medellin Research Vice-Principal's Office and co-financed by a financial company. It presents an application of the LDA model, which is based on data collection of historical losses (frequency and severity, which are recorded internally in organizations. Such data can be supplemented with external data. These losses are classified in a matrix that relates business lines of the organization and operational loss events, from which capital charge is estimated. The application was developed for a financial institution. The paper is organized as follows: The first section is introductory to the subject. The second part formally presents a LDA model; then an application is made, and in the fourth part some conclusions are presented.

  1. Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Robert J B; Goodwill, Alasdair M; Hanson, R Karl; Dahle, Klaus-Peter

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders. © The Author(s) 2015.

  2. An Empirical Analysis of Primary Teacher Standards in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Patrick; Cuc, Nguyen Thi Kim; Gillis, Shelley; Thanh, Mai Thi

    2006-01-01

    This article presents an account of the development of competency standards and profiles for primary teachers in Vietnam. The development project has taken more than four years and used a combination of consultative, actuarial, and item response modeling procedures to develop and validate a scale of teacher competence. In the overall project, more…

  3. 成本建模与原价分析%Cost Modeling and Original Price Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王涛; 袁建新

    2015-01-01

    In the light of the processing characteristics of automotive sheet metal parts, and based on the establishment of the homogeneous cost pool, we construct the mathematical model of sheet metal products’ original price.By using the models, we make the original price analysis and carry out the sheet metal products’ actuarial work, so the cost control point is found, and ultimately it is realized to save procurement costs and reduce the purchase price.%根据汽车钣金件加工特点,在建立同质作业成本库的基础上,对钣金件产品原价进行数学模型构建,通过模型的运用,实现钣金件产品原价的分析与精算工作,从而发现成本控制点,最终达到节约采购成本、降低采购价格的目的。

  4. Gamma knife radiosurgery for acoustic neurinomas. Pt. 2. The analysis of functional outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fukuoka, Seiji; Takanashi, Masami; Seo, Yoshinobu [Nakamura Memorial Hospital, Sapporo (Japan)] [and others

    1997-03-01

    Forty-three patients with the unilateral type of acoustic neurinoma treated by gamma knife radiosurgery were evaluated from the viewpoint of functional preservation of cranial nerves and complications. The follow-up period ranged from 22 to 55 months (mean 36 months). The tumors, which ranged in volume from 0.1 to 18.7 ml (mean 4.0 ml), were treated with marginal radiation doses of 9-15 Gy (mean 13.4 Gy) with multiple isocenters (mean 8.7). Functional hearing was preserved in 80% of patients, and actuarial hearing preservation rates were 83% at 1 year, 77% at 2 years, and 77% at 3 years after gamma knife radiosurgery. No factor was found to correlate with hearing deterioration using Cox`s proportional hazards regression model. Transient facial and trigeminal neuropathies occurred in 2.3% and 4.7% of patients, respectively. Ten patients (23%) experienced transient dizziness 3 to 6 months after radiosurgery, but only preradiosurgery canal palsy was found to correlate with this using multiple regression analysis (p=0.02). Three patients developed communicating hydrocephalus, which may have been due to the high cerebrospinal fluid protein concentration (mean 149 mg/dl). Our results show that gamma knife radiosurgery should be considered as alternative therapy for patients with small-to medium-sized acoustic neurinomas, especially in those with functional hearing, due to the high cranial nerve function preservation rates achieved with this procedure. (author)

  5. The Validity and Utility of the California Family Risk Assessment under Practice Conditions in the Field: A Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Will L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Analysis of the validity and implementation of a child maltreatment actuarial risk assessment model, the California Family Risk Assessment (CFRA). Questions addressed: (1) Is there evidence of the validity of the CFRA under field operating conditions? (2) Do actuarial risk assessment results influence child welfare workers' service…

  6. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF NATURAL DISASTER LOSSES IN POLISH AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz STRUPCZEWSKI

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural production risk is of special nature due to a great number of hazards, relative weakness of production entities on the market and high ambiguity which is greater than in industrial production. Natural disasters occurring very frequently, at simultaneous low percentage of insured farmers, cause damage of such sizes that force the state to organise current financial aid (for instance in the form of preferential natural disaster loans. This aid is usually not sufficient. On the other hand, regional diversity of the risk level does not positively affect the development of insurance. From the perspective of insurance companies and policymakers it becomes highly important to investigate the spatial structure of losses in agriculture caused by natural disasters. The purpose of the research is to classify the 16 Polish voivodeships into clusters in order to show differences between them according to the criterion of level of damage in agricultural farms caused by natural disasters. On the basis of the cluster analysis it was demonstrated that 11 voivodeships form quite a homogeneous group in terms of size of damage in agriculture (the value of damage in cultivations and the acreage of destroyed cultivations are two most important factors determining affiliation to the cluster, however, the profile of loss occurring in other five voivodeships has a very individual course and requires separate handling in the actuarial sense. It was also proved that high value of losses in agriculture in the absolute sense in given voivodeships do not have to mean high vulnerability of agricultural farms from these voivodeships to natural risks.

  7. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    The German Insurance Association (GDV) analyzed the impacts of climate change for the German insurance market. The work was conducted in cooperation with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Cologne. Different approaches and data sets were used to analyze the impacts of winter storm, hail and floods. High-resolution loss records to residential buildings in Germany were provided. These daily records are available on a fine spatial level of administrative districts from 1997-2007. For the period of 1984-2008 daily losses to residential buildings were derived from motor vehicle own damage insurance, which shows a surprisingly high correlation between building losses and motor vehicle losses caused by natural hazards. Loss functions from GDVs own flood risk model were made available to estimate flood losses. As climate change will progress the mean annual losses in the private residential building insurance might increase. Until 2100 losses due to winter storm could rise by more than 50%. The increase is mainly attributable to the intensification of individual exceptionally severe storms. Climate change will also result in an increase of flood losses. By the end of the century mean losses are expected to be twice as high - depending on the given scenario they could remain constant or triple. Conversely extreme events with high cumulative losses are expected to become significantly more frequent. Storms with a today's return period of 50 years might occur every 10 years at the end of the century. Floods, now returning every 50 years, could arise every 25 years. For the first time hailstorms have been analyzed. It was noticed, that in particular East Germany might be hit more frequently. Despite these findings, i.e. the cost of insurance against natural hazards might increase, the extent of such an increase in Germany should still remain within limits that can be mastered by the insurance companies. But we have to adapt to climate change. For this purpose stakeholder usually need ascertained numbers. Because our results were achieved using ensemble techniques they display per se a considerable spread. Despite this fact our results are robust over all approaches and climate models. Therefore they can be used for strategic decisions, less for daily routine business. Higher and more frequent losses will require higher venture capital and must be taken into account when implementing the EU directive Solvency II. If we assess our results carefully and act farseeing, we will be able to draw from manifold activities to deal with climate change impacts. Smart portfolio policy can help to reduce risks. Working with limits and franchises can help to insure highly exposed risks. Therefore GDV offers to his member companies wide accepted tools and risk models such as ZÜRS Geo, HQ Kumul and detailed risk statistics. After all, well-directed information policy, increased risk awareness and preventive action can reduce climate change impacts significantly.

  8. Identifying Pedophiles "Eligible" for Community Notification under Megan's Law: A Multivariate Model for Actuarially Anchored Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallone, Nathaniel J.; Hennessy, James J.; Voelbel, Gerald T.

    1998-01-01

    A scientifically sound methodology for identifying offenders about whose presence the community should be notified is demonstrated. A stepwise multiple regression was calculated among incarcerated pedophiles (N=52) including both psychological and legal data; a precision-weighted equation produced 90.4% "true positives." This methodology can be…

  9. 5 CFR 839.1119 - How is the actuarial reduction for TSP computed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... computed? 839.1119 Section 839.1119 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED... ERRONEOUS RETIREMENT COVERAGE CORRECTIONS ACT Effect of Election General Provisions § 839.1119 How is the... Government contributions and earnings on those Government contributions forms the basis for the...

  10. A Dearth of Numbers: The Actuary and the Sentinel in Global Public Health

    OpenAIRE

    Lakoff, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    How do experts respond to a threat whose probability cannot be calculated but whose consequences could be catastrophic? Andrew Lakoff explores the political dynamics of sentinel devices in the case of the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

  11. Violence risk prediction. Clinical and actuarial measures and the role of the Psychopathy Checklist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, M; Doyle, M

    2000-10-01

    Violence risk prediction is a priority issue for clinicians working with mentally disordered offenders. To review the current status of violence risk prediction research. Literature search (Medline). Key words: violence, risk prediction, mental disorder. Systematic/structured risk assessment approaches may enhance the accuracy of clinical prediction of violent outcomes. Data on the predictive validity of available clinical risk assessment tools are based largely on American and North American studies and further validation is required in British samples. The Psychopathy Checklist appears to be a key predictor of violent recidivism in a variety of settings. Violence risk prediction is an inexact science and as such will continue to provoke debate. Clinicians clearly need to be able to demonstrate the rationale behind their decisions on violence risk and much can be learned from recent developments in research on violence risk prediction.

  12. ACA and the Triple Aim: Musings of a Health Care Actuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Mac

    2015-01-01

    In 2008, the Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI) promulgated the Triple Aim, which advocates simultaneous improvements in patient experiences, improved population health and lower cost per capita. In 2010, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) promised quality, affordable health care for all Americans. It's fair to assume that the framers of ACA were aware of the Triple Aim, and it is likely that much of ACA was heavily influenced by IHI's positions. So it is reasonable, from time to time, to assess ACA's impact on health care against the Triple Aim principles.

  13. Reproductive effort accelerates actuarial senescence in wild birds : An experimental study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Salomons, Martijn; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Dijkstra, Cornelis; Verhulst, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Optimality theories of ageing predict that the balance between reproductive effort and somatic maintenance determines the rate of ageing. Laboratory studies find that increased reproductive effort shortens lifespan, but through increased short-term mortality rather than ageing. In contrast, high fec

  14. Age distributions of Greenlandic dwarf shrubs support concept of negligible actuarial senescence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Rizzi, Silvia; Schweingruber, Fritz;

    2017-01-01

    determination from the root collars of small plants constitutes a powerful technique to further investigate age dependency of the demography of many plant species, including eudicot herbs. Using these methods for long-lived plants where long-term monitoring is unrealistic, we show that age is unlikely...... to be an important variable for making population projections and determining extinction risks....

  15. Reproductive effort accelerates actuarial senescence in wild birds : An experimental study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Salomons, Martijn; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Dijkstra, Cornelis; Verhulst, Simon

    Optimality theories of ageing predict that the balance between reproductive effort and somatic maintenance determines the rate of ageing. Laboratory studies find that increased reproductive effort shortens lifespan, but through increased short-term mortality rather than ageing. In contrast, high

  16. 77 FR 69850 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-21

    ... sequestration, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following year's expenditures would... legislation, then the Part B asset reserve ratio for December 31, 2013 would be approximately 9.3 percentage... reserve ratios at the end of 2013 would be reduced by approximately another 2 percentage points....

  17. 'Last-minute' donations influence actuarial prediction in an anatomical body donation program

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijbenga, B. S.; Koning, R. H.; Kooistra - Akse, Berdien; Bolt, S.; Kuks, J. B. M.; van Zanten-Timmer, G.; Veening, J. G.; Gerrits, P. O.

    2010-01-01

    Background: At some American and European universities the dissection program is threatened by a shortage of anatomical specimens. In contrast, the annual numbers of registrations at the University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG) in the Netherlands increased substantially in recent years. Uncontroll

  18. Conditional Survival Analysis of Patients With Locally Advanced Laryngeal Cancer: Construction of a Dynamic Risk Model and Clinical Nomogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Tommy; Vock, David M.; Mohamed, Abdallah S. R.; Gross, Neil; Mulcahy, Collin; Zafereo, Mark; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Sevak, Parag; Phan, Jack; Lewin, Jan S.; Frank, Steven J.; Beadle, Beth M.; Morrison, William H.; Lai, Stephen Y.; Hutcheson, Katherine; Marai, G. Elisabeta; Canahuate, Guadalupe M.; Kies, Merrill; El-Naggar, Adel; Weber, Randal S.; Rosenthal, David I.; Fuller, Clifton D.

    2017-01-01

    Conditional survival (CS), the survival beyond a pre-defined time interval, can identify periods of higher mortality risk for patients with locally advanced laryngeal cancer who face treatment-related toxicity and comorbidities related to alcohol and smoking in the survivorship setting. Using Weibull regression modeling, we analyzed retrospectively abstracted data from 638 records of patients who received radiation to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) for the first 3 years of survival and for OS conditional upon 3 years of survival. The CS was iteratively calculated, stratifying on variables that were statistically significant on multivariate regression. Predictive nomograms were generated. The median total follow up time was 175 months. The 3- and 6- year actuarial overall survival (OS) was 68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 65–72%) and 49% (CI 45–53%). The 3-year conditional overall survival (COS) at 3 years was 72% (CI 65–74%). Black patients had worse COS over time. Nodal disease was significantly associated with recurrence, but after 3 years, the 3-year conditional RFS converged for all nodal groups. In conclusion, the CS analysis in this patient cohort identified subgroups and time intervals that may represent opportunities for intervention. PMID:28276466

  19. Exposure-response analysis of risk of respiratory disease associated with occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stayner, L; Smith, R; Bailer, J; Gilbert, S; Steenland, K; Dement, J; Brown, D; Lemen, R

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate alternative models and estimate risk of mortality from lung cancer and asbestosis after occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos. METHODS: Data were used from a recent update of a cohort mortality study of workers in a South Carolina textile factory. Alternative exposure-response models were evaluated with Poisson regression. A model designed to evaluate evidence of a threshold response was also fitted. Lifetime risks of lung cancer and asbestosis were estimated with an actuarial approach that accounts for competing causes of death. RESULTS: A highly significant exposure-response relation was found for both lung cancer and asbestosis. The exposure-response relation for lung cancer seemed to be linear on a multiplicative scale, which is consistent with previous analyses of lung cancer and exposure to asbestos. In contrast, the exposure-response relation for asbestosis seemed to be nonlinear on a multiplicative scale in this analysis. There was no significant evidence for a threshold in models of either the lung cancer or asbestosis. The excess lifetime risk for white men exposed for 45 years at the recently revised OSHA standard of 0.1 fibre/ml was predicted to be about 5/1000 for lung cancer, and 2/1000 for asbestosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the findings from previous investigations of a strong exposure-response relation between exposure to chrysotile asbestos and mortality from lung cancer, and asbestosis. The risk estimates for lung cancer derived from this analysis are higher than those derived from other populations exposed to chrysotile asbestos. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. PMID:9423577

  20. Clinical outcome of patients with primary gliosarcoma treated with concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide: A single institutional analysis of 27 cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G K Rath

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND AIM: The prognosis of primary gliosarcoma (PGS remains dismal with current treatment modalities. We analyzed the outcome of PGS patients treated with concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: Retrospective single institutional analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 27 patients of PGS treated with radiotherapy (RT and TMZ during 2007-2012. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Overall survival (OS was estimated by the use of Kaplan Meier method and toxicities were evaluate using common terminology criteria for adverse events version 2.0 (National Cancer Institute, USA. RESULTS: Median age at presentation and Karnofsky performance status was 45 years and 90 respectively and male: female ratio was 20:7. Patients received adjuvant RT to a total dose of 60 Gy at 2 Gy/fraction. All patients except 5 received adjuvant TMZ to a median number of 6 cycles. Grade 2 and 3 hematological toxicity was seen in 8% and 4% of patients respectively during concurrent RT. During adjuvant chemotherapy, 13.6% had Grade 3 thrombocytopenia and 9.5% had Grade 3 neutropenia. Median OS was 16.7 months (1 year and 2 year actuarial OS was 70.8% and 32.6% respectively. Adjuvant TMZ was associated with a better survival (median survival 21.21 vs. 11.93 months; P = 0.0046 on univariate analysis and also on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.503-25.58; P = 0.012. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study, largest series of patients with PGS treated with concurrent and adjuvant TMZ shows an impressive survival with acceptable toxicity. We suggest TMZ be included in the “standard of care” for this tumor.

  1. Manifestation Pattern of Early-Late Vaginal Morbidity After Definitive Radiation (Chemo)Therapy and Image-Guided Adaptive Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: An Analysis From the EMBRACE Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchheiner, Kathrin, E-mail: kathrin.kirchheiner@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Nout, Remi A. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center (Netherlands); Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C. [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital (Denmark); Westerveld, Henrike [Department of Radiotherapy, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haie-Meder, Christine [Department of Radiotherapy, Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Petrič, Primož [Department of Radiotherapy, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana (Slovenia); Department of Radiotherapy, National Center for Cancer Care and Research, Doha (Qatar); Mahantshetty, Umesh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Dörr, Wolfgang; Pötter, Richard [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria)

    2014-05-01

    Background and Purpose: Brachytherapy in the treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer has changed substantially because of the introduction of combined intracavitary/interstitial applicators and an adaptive target concept, which is the focus of the prospective, multi-institutional EMBRACE study ( (www.embracestudy.dk)) on image-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IGABT). So far, little has been reported about the development of early to late vaginal morbidity in the frame of IGABT. Therefore, the aim of the present EMBRACE analysis was to evaluate the manifestation pattern of vaginal morbidity during the first 2 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: In total, 588 patients with a median follow-up time of 15 months and information on vaginal morbidity were included. Morbidity was prospectively assessed at baseline, every 3 months during the first year, and every 6 months in the second year according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3, regarding vaginal stenosis, dryness, mucositis, bleeding, fistula, and other symptoms. Crude incidence rates, actuarial probabilities, and prevalence rates were analyzed. Results: At 2 years, the actuarial probability of severe vaginal morbidity (grade ≥3) was 3.6%. However, mild and moderate vaginal symptoms were still pronounced (grade ≥1, 89%; grade ≥2, 29%), of which the majority developed within 6 months. Stenosis was most frequently observed, followed by vaginal dryness. Vaginal bleeding and mucositis were mainly mild and infrequently reported. Conclusion: Severe vaginal morbidity within the first 2 years after definitive radiation (chemo)therapy including IGABT with intracavitary/interstitial techniques for locally advanced cervical cancer is limited and is significantly less than has been reported from earlier studies. Thus, the new adaptive target concept seems to be a safe treatment with regard to the vagina being an organ at risk. However, mild to moderate vaginal morbidity

  2. Stratified analysis of 800 Asian patients after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy with a median 64 months of follow up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel Raheem, Ali; Kim, Dae Keun; Santok, Glen Denmer; Alabdulaali, Ibrahim; Chung, Byung Ha; Choi, Young Deuk; Rha, Koon Ho

    2016-09-01

    To report the 5-year oncological outcomes of robot-assisted radical prostatectomy from the largest series ever reported from Asia. A retrospective analysis of 800 Asian patients who were treated with robot-assisted radical prostatectomy from July 2005 to May 2010 in the Department of Urology and Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea was carried out. The primary end-point was to evaluate the biochemical recurrence. The secondary end-point was to show the biochemical recurrence-free survival, metastasis-free survival and cancer-specific survival. A total of 197 (24.65%), 218 (27.3%), and 385 (48.1%) patients were classified as low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients according to the D'Amico risk stratification risk criteria, respectively. The median follow-up period was 64 months (interquartile range 28-71 months). The overall incidence of positive surgical margin was 36.6%. There was biochemical recurrence in 183 patients (22.9%), 38 patients (4.8%) developed distant metastasis and 24 patients (3%) died from prostate cancer. Actuarial biochemical recurrence-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and cancer-specific survival rates at 5 years were 76.4%, 94.6% and 96.7%, respectively. Positive lymph node was associated with lower 5-year biochemical recurrence-free survival (9.1%), cancer-specific survival (75.7%) and metastasis-free survival (61.9%) rates (P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, among all the predictors, positive lymph node was the strongest predictor of biochemical recurrence, cancer-specific survival and metastasis-free survival (P < 0.001). Herein we report the largest robot-assisted radical prostatectomy series from Asia. Robot-assisted radical prostatectomy is confirmed to be an oncologically safe procedure that is able to provide effective 5-year cancer control, even in patients with high-risk disease. © 2016 The Japanese Urological Association.

  3. Construction and Validation of Risk Assessments in a Six-Year Follow-Up of Forensic Patients: A Tridimensional Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzies, Robert; Webster, Christopher D.

    1995-01-01

    Evaluations of the risk of recurrent violence were conducted for 162 Canadian mentally disordered criminal defendants through the assembly of actuarial data, scores from special-to-purpose psychometric instruments, and scaled global predictions of dangerousness to others. Professional clinicians were not more accurate than nonclinical raters. (JPS)

  4. Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund Audited Financial Statements. Fiscal Year 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-09

    Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the Years Ended September 30, 2013 and 2012.” Computation of Incurred Claims Reserve The actuarial ...methods are used to compute the IBNR, including the development of month-to-month completion factors, IBNR smoothing techniques, as well as analysis ...health care costs provide input to the development of the actuarially determined long-term health care liability of MERHCF, as well as the

  5. The Largest Known Survival Analysis of Patients with Brain Metastasis from Thyroid Cancer Based on Prognostic Groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhyun Choi

    Full Text Available To analyze the clinical features and prognostic factors associated with the survival of patients with a very rare occurrence of brain metastasis (BM from differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC.A total of 37 patients with DTC who were diagnosed with BM between 1995 and 2014 were included. We reviewed the clinical characteristics, treatment modalities, and image findings of BM. Factors associated with survival were evaluated, and the patients were divided into three prognostic groups (Groups A, B, and C for comparative analysis.The median age at BM was 63 years, and the median time from initial thyroid cancer diagnosis to BM was 3.8 years. The median survival and the 1-year actuarial survival rate after BM were 8.8 months and 47%, respectively. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, four good prognostic factors (GPFs were identified including age ≤ 60 years, PS ≤ ECOG 2, ≤ 3 BM sites, and without extracranial metastasis prior to BM. Three prognostic groups were designed based on age and number of remaining GPFs: patients ≤ 60 years of age with at least 2 GPFs (Group A had the most favorable prognosis with a median survival of 32.8 months; patients ≤ 60 years of age with fewer than 2 GPFs and those > 60 years of age with at least 2 GPFs (Group B had an intermediate prognosis with a median survival of 9.4 months; and patients > 60 years of age with fewer than 2 GPFs (Group C had the least favorable prognosis with a median survival of 1.5 months.The survival of patients with BM form DTC differed among the prognostic groups based on the total number of good prognostic factors.

  6. A retrospective health policy analysis of the development and implementation of the voluntary health insurance system in Lebanon: learning from failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Jardali, Fadi; Bou-Karroum, Lama; Ataya, Nour; El-Ghali, Hana Addam; Hammoud, Rawan

    2014-12-01

    Public policymaking is complex and suffers from limited uptake of research evidence, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). In-depth case studies examining health policymaking in the EMR are lacking. This retrospective policy analysis aims at generating insights about how policies are being made, identifying factors influencing policymaking and assessing to what extent evidence is used in this process by using the Lebanese Voluntary Health Insurance policy as a case study. The study examined the policymaking process through a policy tracing technique that covered a period of 12 years. The study employed a qualitative research design using a case study approach and was conducted in two phases over the course of two years. Data was collected using multiple sources including: 1) a comprehensive and chronological media review; 2) twenty-two key informant interviews with policymakers, stakeholders, and journalists; and 3) a document review of legislations, minutes of meetings, actuarial studies, and official documents. Data was analyzed and validated using thematic analysis. Findings showed that the voluntary health insurance policy was a political decision taken by the government to tackle an urgent political problem. Evidence was not used to guide policy development and implementation and policy implementers and other stakeholders were not involved in policy development. Factors influencing policymaking were political interests, sectarianism, urgency, and values of policymakers. Barriers to the use of evidence were lack of policy-relevant research evidence, political context, personal interests, and resource constraints. Findings suggest that policymakers should be made more aware of the important role of evidence in informing public policymaking and the need for building capacity to develop, implement and evaluate policies. Study findings are likely to matter in light of the changes that are unfolding in some Arab countries and the looming

  7. 精算思想的演进与精算理论发展综述%Review on the Evolution of Actuarial Thoughts and Development of Actuarial Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙立娟; 汪哲侃

    2013-01-01

    精算是保险发展的基础,是保险经营的技术支持.精算在国外有四百年的发展历史,引入中国只有二十年.要使精算技术在中国得到发展创新并为社会需要服务,必须了解精算思想产生的历史背景,厘清精算理论发展的脉络,真正把握精算思想的实质.基于此,介绍了精算各发展时期的主要代表人物及其学术思想,阐述精算技术对各时期保险发展的影响,同时对精算学与复利理论、数学、统计学、计算技术、金融经济学交叉融合的历史过程进行了分析述评.

  8. Whole lot of parts: stress in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, G Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Stress has been a central interest for researchers of human behavior in extreme and unusual environments and also for those who are responsible for planning and carrying out expeditions involving such environments. This paper compares the actuarial and case study methods for predicting reactions to stress. Actuarial studies are useful, but do not tap enough variables to allow us to predict how a specific individual will cope with the rigors of an individual mission. Case histories provide a wealth of detail, but few investigators understand the challenges of properly applying this method. This study reviews some of the strengths and weaknesses of the actuarial and case history methods, and presents a four celled taxonomy of stress based on method (actuarial and case history) and effects (distress and eustress). For both research and operational purposes, the person, the setting, and time should not be considered independently; rather, it is an amalgam of these variables that provides the proper basis of analysis.

  9. 5 CFR 839.1118 - Will my annuity be actuarially reduced because I had Government contributions in my TSP account?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) CORRECTION OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE ERRORS UNDER THE FEDERAL ERRONEOUS RETIREMENT COVERAGE CORRECTIONS ACT Effect of Election... FERCCA are allowed to keep the Government contributions, and earnings on the Government contributions...

  10. Actuarial risk of isolated CNS involvement in Ewing's sarcoma following prophylactic cranial irradiation and intrathecal methotrexate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trigg, M.E.; Makuch, R.; Glaubiger, D.

    1985-04-01

    Records of 154 patients with Ewing's sarcoma treated at the National Cancer Institute were reviewed to assess the incidence and risk of developing isolated central nervous system (CNS) Ewing's sarcoma. Sixty-two of the 154 patients had received CNS irradiation and intrathecal (i.t.) methotrexate as part of their initial therapy to prevent the occurrence of isolated CNS Ewing's sarcoma. The risk of developing isolate CNS Ewing's sarcoma was greatest within the first two years after diagnosis and was approximately 10%. The overall risk of CNS recurrence in the group of patients receiving DNS treatment was similar to the group receiving no therapy directed to the CNS. The occurrence of isolated CNS involvement was not prevented by the use of CNS irradiation and i.t. methotrexate. Because of a lack of efficacy to the CNS irradiation regimen, current treatment regimens do not include therapy directed to CNS.

  11. 26 CFR 1.412(c)(2)-1 - Valuation of plan assets; reasonable actuarial valuation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... determined under paragraph (b)(7) of this section. Assuming the numerical data of Example 6, the application... the funding standard account based on the retroactive application of its new method as of the first... valuation methods. 1.412(c)(2)-1 Section 1.412(c)(2)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE,...

  12. Aplicación de modelos autoregresivos para variables economicas en el cálculo actuarial

    OpenAIRE

    Torres Guaranda, Francisco Rafael; Sandoya Sanchez, Fernando

    2009-01-01

    El objetivo principal del desarrollo de este tema de investigación, es hallar, a partir de un Modelo Autoregresivo que ajusta la fluctuación de la tasa de interés en el tiempo, los momentos de las anualidades, seguros ciertos y de vida, los cuales representan el negocio de muchas empresas no sólo de nuestro país sino también del extranjero. El cálculo de estos momentos es un tema fundamental en Matemáticas Actuariales, pues permiten evaluar el monto de las primas y el riesgo de emitirlas. ...

  13. 76 FR 18649 - Technical Revisions to Actuarial Information on Form 5500 Annual Return/Report for Pension Plans...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-05

    ... Form 5500 Annual Return/Report for Pension Plans Electing Funding Alternatives Under Pension Relief Act... defined benefit pension plans under the Preservation of Access to Care for Medicare Beneficiaries and Pension Relief Act of 2010 (Pension Relief Act). The information that would be required either by way of...

  14. 76 FR 49569 - Use of Actuarial Tables in Valuing Annuities, Interests for Life or Terms of Years, and Remainder...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-10

    ... and life contingencies prescribed in Sec. 20.2031-7 of this chapter (or for periods before May 1, 2009... transferred to a pooled income fund is computed on the basis of-- (i) Life contingencies determined from the... charitable remainder unitrust. (a) * * * (1) Life contingencies determined as to each life involved, from...

  15. 20 CFR 901.53 - Notice of suspension, termination or resignation of enrollment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME... enrollment of an actuary, the Executive Director shall give notice thereof to appropriate officers...

  16. The influence of total nodes examined, number of positive nodes, and lymph node ratio on survival after surgical resection and adjuvant chemoradiation for pancreatic cancer: A secondary analysis of RTOG 9704

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showalter, Timothy N.; Winter, Kathryn A.; Berger, Adam C.; Regine, William F.; Abrams, Ross A.; Safran, Howard; Hoffman, John P.; Benson, Al B.; MacDonald, John S.; Willett, Christopher G.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Lymph node status is an important predictor of survival in pancreatic cancer. We performed a secondary analysis of RTOG 9704, an adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation trial, to determine the influence of lymph node factors-number of positive nodes (NPN), total nodes examined (TNE), and lymph node ratio (LNR-ratio of NPN to TNE)-on OS and disease-free survival (DFS). Patient and Methods Eligible patients from RTOG 9704 form the basis of this secondary analysis of lymph node parameters. Actuarial estimates for OS and DFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate associations of NPN, TNE, and LNR with OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were also performed. Results There were 538 patients enrolled in the RTOG 9704 trial. Of these, 445 patients were eligible with lymph nodes removed. Overall median NPN was 1 (min-max, 0-18). Increased NPN was associated with worse OS (HR=1.06, p=0.001) and DFS (HR=1.05, p=0.01). In multivariate analyses, both NPN and TNE were associated with OS and DFS. TNE > 12, and >15, were associated with increased OS for all patients, but not for node-negative patients (n =142). Increased LNR was associated with worse OS (HR=1.01, p<0.0001) and DFS (HR=1.006, p=0.002). Conclusion In patients who undergo surgical resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiation, TNE, NPN, and LNR are associated with OS and DFS. This secondary analysis of a prospective, cooperative group trial supports the influence of these lymph node parameters on outcomes after surgery and adjuvant therapy using contemporary techniques. PMID:20934270

  17. The Influence of Total Nodes Examined, Number of Positive Nodes, and Lymph Node Ratio on Survival After Surgical Resection and Adjuvant Chemoradiation for Pancreatic Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of RTOG 9704

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Showalter, Timothy N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Jefferson Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Winter, Kathryn A. [Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, RTOG Statistical Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Berger, Adam C., E-mail: adam.berger@jefferson.edu [Department of Surgery, Jefferson Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Regine, William F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, MD (United States); Abrams, Ross A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL (United States); Safran, Howard [Department of Medicine, Miriam Hospital, Brown University Oncology Group, Providence, RI (United States); Hoffman, John P. [Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Benson, Al B. [Division of Hematology-Oncology, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL (United States); MacDonald, John S. [St. Vincent' s Cancer Care Center, New York, NY (United States); Willett, Christopher G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Purpose: Lymph node status is an important predictor of survival in pancreatic cancer. We performed a secondary analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9704, an adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation trial, to determine the influence of lymph node factors-number of positive nodes (NPN), total nodes examined (TNE), and lymph node ratio (LNR ratio of NPN to TNE)-on OS and disease-free survival (DFS). Patient and Methods: Eligible patients from RTOG 9704 form the basis of this secondary analysis of lymph node parameters. Actuarial estimates for OS and DFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate associations of NPN, TNE, and LNR with OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were also performed. Results: There were 538 patients enrolled in the RTOG 9704 trial. Of these, 445 patients were eligible with lymph nodes removed. Overall median NPN was 1 (min-max, 0-18). Increased NPN was associated with worse OS (HR = 1.06, p = 0.001) and DFS (HR = 1.05, p = 0.01). In multivariate analyses, both NPN and TNE were associated with OS and DFS. TNE > 12, and >15 were associated with increased OS for all patients, but not for node-negative patients (n = 142). Increased LNR was associated with worse OS (HR = 1.01, p < 0.0001) and DFS (HR = 1.006, p = 0.002). Conclusion: In patients who undergo surgical resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiation, TNE, NPN, and LNR are associated with OS and DFS. This secondary analysis of a prospective, cooperative group trial supports the influence of these lymph node parameters on outcomes after surgery and adjuvant therapy using contemporary techniques.

  18. Content Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rossi, George Bedinelli; Serralvo, Francisco Antonio; João, Belmiro Nascimento

    2014-01-01

    This study introduces the various definitions and types of content analysis. This type of analysis historically presents itself as a quantitative approach to data analysis and currently shows up as a qualitative approach...

  19. Outcomes for Spine Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and an Analysis of Predictors of Local Recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bishop, Andrew J.; Tao, Randa [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Rebueno, Neal C. [Department of Radiation Dosimetry, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Christensen, Eva N.; Allen, Pamela K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wang, Xin A. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Amini, Behrang [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tannir, Nizar M. [Department of Genitourinary Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tatsui, Claudio E.; Rhines, Laurence D. [Department of Neurosurgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Li, Jing [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Chang, Eric L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, USC Norris Cancer Hospital, Keck School of Medicine of USC, Los Angeles, California (United States); Brown, Paul D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Ghia, Amol J., E-mail: ajghia@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: To investigate local control, survival outcomes, and predictors of local relapse for patients treated with spine stereotactic body radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 332 spinal metastases consecutively treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy between 2002 and 2012. The median follow-up for all living patients was 33 months (range, 0-111 months). Endpoints were overall survival and local control (LC); recurrences were classified as either in-field or marginal. Results: The 1-year actuarial LC and overall survival rates were 88% and 64%, respectively. Patients with local relapses had poorer dosimetric coverage of the gross tumor volume (GTV) compared with patients without recurrence (minimum dose [Dmin] biologically equivalent dose [BED] 23.9 vs 35.1 Gy, P<.001; D98 BED 41.8 vs 48.1 Gy, P=.001; D95 BED 47.2 vs 50.5 Gy, P=.004). Furthermore, patients with marginal recurrences had poorer prescription coverage of the GTV (86% vs 93%, P=.01) compared with those with in-field recurrences, potentially because of more upfront spinal canal disease (78% vs 24%, P=.001). Using a Cox regression univariate analysis, patients with a GTV BED Dmin ≥33.4 Gy (median dose) (equivalent to 14 Gy in 1 fraction) had a significantly higher 1-year LC rate (94% vs 80%, P=.001) compared with patients with a lower GTV BED Dmin; this factor was the only significant variable on multivariate Cox analysis associated with LC (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.60) and also was the only variable significant in a separate competing risk multivariate model (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.62). Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy offers durable control for spinal metastases, but there is a subset of patients that recur locally. Patients with local relapse had significantly poorer tumor coverage, which was likely attributable to treatment planning directives that prioritized the

  20. Long-term local control achieved after hypofractionated stereotactic body radiotherapy for adrenal gland metastases: A retrospective analysis of 34 patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scorsetti, Marta; Alongi, Filippo [Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery Dept., IRCCS Istituto Clinico Humanitas, Humanitas Cancer Center, Rozzano, Milano (Italy)], Email: filippo.alongi@humanitas.it; Filippi, Andrea Riccardo [Radiation Oncology Unit, Dept. of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Univ. of Turin, Turin (Italy)] [and others

    2012-05-15

    Aims and background. To describe feasibility, tolerability and clinical outcomes of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in the treatment of adrenal metastases in 34 consecutive cancer patients. Material and methods. Between March 2004 and July 2010, a total of 34 consecutive patients, accounting for 36 adrenal metastatic lesions, were treated with SBRT. SBRT treatments were delivered by a Linac Varian 600 with microMLC (3DLine, Elekta, Stockholm, Sweden) and a Linac ELEKTA Precise (Elekta). All 34 patients were clinically and radiologically evaluated during and after completion of SBRT. Following outcomes were taken into account: best clinical response at any time, local control, time to systemic progression, time to local progression, overall survival and toxicity. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and factor potentially affecting outcomes were analyzed with Cox regression analysis. Results. Total RT doses ranged from 20 Gy in 4 fractions to 45 Gy in 18 fractions (median dose: 32 Gy; median number of fractions: 4). All doses were prescribed to the 95% isodose line. No cases of Grade {>=} 3 toxicity were recorded. At a median follow-up time of 41 months (range, 12-75) 22 patients were alive. Three of 28 lesions (11%) showed complete response, 13/28 (46%) partial response, 10/28 (36%) stable disease and 2/28 (7%) progressed in the treated area. Local failure was observed in 13 cases. Actuarial local control rates at one and two years were 66% and 32%, respectively. Median time to local progression was 19 months. Median survival was 22 months. Conclusion. SBRT in adrenal gland metastasis is feasible without significant acute and late toxicities, with a good rate of local control. New SBRT fractionation schemes and the possibility to combine new systemic approaches should be investigated in order to further increase local control and reduce systemic disease progression.

  1. Needs analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄静雅

    2009-01-01

    Though needs analysis has been seen as one of the fundamental defining characteristics of ESP,it is not unknown in GPE.it is a salient stage,especially for the task option and syllabus evaluation.In this essay,the meaning of needs,the importance of needs analysis,and the way to implement needs analysis are subject to analysis.

  2. Content Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Bedinelli Rossi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces the various definitions and types of content analysis. This type of analysis historically presents itself as a quantitative approach to data analysis and currently shows up as a qualitative approach. The most common types are the conceptual and relational analysis. The latter receives influences of linguistic, cognitive and mental models and it is subdivided in affective extraction, analysis of proximity and cognitive mapping. Regarding the importance of this type of analysis, we have quantitative and qualitative character and the latter approach can be used to identify hypotheses, theoretical constructs or even models that can be tested by multivariate statistical techniques or even by experiments. 

  3. 29 CFR 2520.101-6 - Multiemployer pension plan information made available on request.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... “periodic actuarial report” means any— (i) Actuarial report prepared by an actuary of the plan and received... plan from an actuary of the plan that depicts alternative funding scenarios based on a range...

  4. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    McShane, Edward James

    2013-01-01

    This text surveys practical elements of real function theory, general topology, and functional analysis. Discusses the maximality principle, the notion of convergence, the Lebesgue-Stieltjes integral, function spaces and harmonic analysis. Includes exercises. 1959 edition.

  5. Sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003741.htm Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...

  6. CSF analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerebrospinal fluid analysis ... Analysis of CSF can help detect certain conditions and diseases. All of the following can be, but ... An abnormal CSF analysis result may be due to many different causes, ... Encephalitis (such as West Nile and Eastern Equine) Hepatic ...

  7. Functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kantorovich, L V

    1982-01-01

    Functional Analysis examines trends in functional analysis as a mathematical discipline and the ever-increasing role played by its techniques in applications. The theory of topological vector spaces is emphasized, along with the applications of functional analysis to applied analysis. Some topics of functional analysis connected with applications to mathematical economics and control theory are also discussed. Comprised of 18 chapters, this book begins with an introduction to the elements of the theory of topological spaces, the theory of metric spaces, and the theory of abstract measure space

  8. Grey analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cable, G.D.

    1996-12-01

    Grey logic is not another name for fuzzy logic. Grey logic--also called grey analysis or grey system theory--is a new technology, a group of techniques for system analysis and modeling. Like fuzzy logic, grey logic is useful in situations with incomplete and uncertain information. Grey analysis is particularly applicable in instances with very limited data and in cases with little system knowledge or understanding. In this paper, a summary of the basic concepts of grey analysis is provided, with descriptions of its application to several classes of problems. Calculations methods are provided for grey relation analysis, and for modeling and prediction using grey methods.

  9. Fourier analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Stade, Eric

    2005-01-01

    A reader-friendly, systematic introduction to Fourier analysis Rich in both theory and application, Fourier Analysis presents a unique and thorough approach to a key topic in advanced calculus. This pioneering resource tells the full story of Fourier analysis, including its history and its impact on the development of modern mathematical analysis, and also discusses essential concepts and today's applications. Written at a rigorous level, yet in an engaging style that does not dilute the material, Fourier Analysis brings two profound aspects of the discipline to the forefront: the wealth of ap

  10. Understanding Clinicians' Use of Cues When Assessing the Future Risk of Violence: A Clinical Judgement Analysis in the Psychiatric Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Barbara; Rakow, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Research is sparse on how clinicians' judgement informs their violence risk assessments. Yet, determining preferences for which risk factors are used, and how they are weighted and combined, is important to understanding such assessments. This study investigated clinicians' use of static and dynamic cues when assessing risk in individual patients and for dynamic cues considered in the recent and distant past. Clinicians provided three violence risk assessments for 41 separate hypothetical cases of hospitalized patients, each defined by eight cues (e.g., psychopathy and past violence severity/frequency). A clinical judgement analysis, using regression analysis of judgements for multiple cases, created linear models reflecting the major influences on each individual clinician's judgement. Risk assessments could be successfully predicted by between one and four cues, and there was close agreement between different clinicians' models regarding which cues were relevant for a given assessment. However, which cues were used varied between assessments: history of recent violence predicted assessments of in-hospital risk, whereas violence in the distant past predicted the assessed risk in the community. Crucially, several factors included in actuarial/structured risk assessment tools had little influence on clinicians' assessments. Our findings point to the adaptivity in clinicians' violence risk assessments, with a preference for relying on information consistent with the setting for which the assessment applies. The implication is that clinicians are open to using different structured assessment tools for different kinds of risk assessment, although they may seek greater flexibility in their assessments than some structured risk assessment tools afford (e.g., discounting static risk factors). Across three separate violence risk assessments, clinicians' risk assessments were more strongly influenced by dynamic cues that can vary over time (e.g., level of violence) than by

  11. Long-term analysis of oncological outcomes after laparoscopic radical cystectomy in Europe: results from a multicentre study by the European Association of Urology (EAU) section of Uro-technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albisinni, Simone; Rassweiler, Jens; Abbou, Clement-Claude; Cathelineau, Xavier; Chlosta, Piotr; Fossion, Laurent; Gaboardi, Franco; Rimington, Peter; Salomon, Laurent; Sanchez-Salas, Rafael; Stolzenburg, Jens-Uwe; Teber, Dogu; van Velthoven, Roland

    2015-06-01

    To report long-term outcomes of laparoscopic radical cystectomy (LRC) in a multicentre European cohort, and explore feasibility and safety of LRC. This study was coordinated by European Association of Urology (EAU)-section of Uro-technology (ESUT) with nine centres enrolling 503 patients undergoing LRC for bladder cancer prospectively between 2000 and 2013. Data were retrospectively analysed. Descriptive statistics were used to explore peri- and postoperative characteristics of th ecohort. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed to evaluate recurrence-free survival (RFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Outcomes were also stratified according to tumour stage, lymph node (LN) involvement and surgical margin status. Minor complications (Clavien I-II) occurred in 39% and major (IIIa-IVb) in 17%. In all, 10 (2%) postoperative deaths were recorded. The median (interquartile, IQR) LN retrieval was 14 (9-17) and positive surgical margins were detected in 29 (5.8%) patients. The median (mean, IQR) follow-up was 50 (60, 19-90), during which 134 (27%) recurrences were detected. Actuarial RFS, CSS and OS rates were 66%, 75% and 62% at 5 years and 62%, 55%, 38% at 10 years. Significant differences in RFS, CSS and OS were found according to tumour stage, LN involvement and margin status (log-rank P < 0.001). On multivariate Cox analysis, T stage and LN involvement (both P < 0.001) were significant predictors of RFS, CSS and OS. Positive margins were significant predictors of RFS (P = 0.016) and CSS (P = 0.043). In this European LRC multicentre study, the largest to date, long-term RFS, CSS and OS rates after LRC appear comparable to those reported in current open RC series. Further randomised controlled trials are necessary to assess the global impact of LRC. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

  12. Applied analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Lanczos, Cornelius

    2010-01-01

    Basic text for graduate and advanced undergraduate deals with search for roots of algebraic equations encountered in vibration and flutter problems and in those of static and dynamic stability. Other topics devoted to matrices and eigenvalue problems, large-scale linear systems, harmonic analysis and data analysis, more.

  13. Panel Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brænder, Morten; Andersen, Lotte Bøgh

    2014-01-01

    Based on our 2013-article, ”Does Deployment to War Affect Soldiers' Public Service Motivation – A Panel Study of Soldiers Before and After their Service in Afghanistan”, we present Panel Analysis as a methodological discipline. Panels consist of multiple units of analysis, observed at two or more...

  14. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  15. Methods of Estimating Strategic Intentions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    of events, coding categories. A V 𔃻 2. Weighting Data: polIcy capturIng, Bayesian methods, correlation and variance analysis. 3. Characterizing Data...memory aids, fuzzy sets, factor analysis. 4. Assessing Covariations: actuarial models, backcasting . bootstrapping. 5. Cause and Effect Assessment...causae search, causal analysis, search trees, stepping analysts, hypothesis, regression analysis. 6. Predictions: Backcast !ng, boot strapping, decision

  16. Recursive analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Goodstein, R L

    2010-01-01

    Recursive analysis develops natural number computations into a framework appropriate for real numbers. This text is based upon primary recursive arithmetic and presents a unique combination of classical analysis and intuitional analysis. Written by a master in the field, it is suitable for graduate students of mathematics and computer science and can be read without a detailed knowledge of recursive arithmetic.Introductory chapters on recursive convergence and recursive and relative continuity are succeeded by explorations of recursive and relative differentiability, the relative integral, and

  17. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Khabaza, I M

    1960-01-01

    Numerical Analysis is an elementary introduction to numerical analysis, its applications, limitations, and pitfalls. Methods suitable for digital computers are emphasized, but some desk computations are also described. Topics covered range from the use of digital computers in numerical work to errors in computations using desk machines, finite difference methods, and numerical solution of ordinary differential equations. This book is comprised of eight chapters and begins with an overview of the importance of digital computers in numerical analysis, followed by a discussion on errors in comput

  18. Panel Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brænder, Morten; Andersen, Lotte Bøgh

    2014-01-01

    Based on our 2013-article, ”Does Deployment to War Affect Soldiers' Public Service Motivation – A Panel Study of Soldiers Before and After their Service in Afghanistan”, we present Panel Analysis as a methodological discipline. Panels consist of multiple units of analysis, observed at two or more...... in research settings where it is not possible to distribute units of analysis randomly or where the independent variables cannot be manipulated. The greatest disadvantage in regard to using panel studies is that data may be difficult to obtain. This is most clearly vivid in regard to the use of panel surveys...

  19. Private, Social and Self-Insurance for Long-Term Care in the Presence of Family Help - A Political Economy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    De Donder, Philippe; Pestieau, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    We study the political determination of the level of social long-term care insurance when voters also choose private insurance and saving amounts. Agents differ in income, probability of becoming dependent and of receiving family help. Social insurance redistributes across income and risk levels, while private insurance is actuarially fair. The income-to-risk ratio of agents determines whether they prefer social or private insurance. Family support crowds out the demand for both social and, e...

  20. Analysis II

    CERN Document Server

    Tao, Terence

    2016-01-01

    This is part two of a two-volume book on real analysis and is intended for senior undergraduate students of mathematics who have already been exposed to calculus. The emphasis is on rigour and foundations of analysis. Beginning with the construction of the number systems and set theory, the book discusses the basics of analysis (limits, series, continuity, differentiation, Riemann integration), through to power series, several variable calculus and Fourier analysis, and then finally the Lebesgue integral. These are almost entirely set in the concrete setting of the real line and Euclidean spaces, although there is some material on abstract metric and topological spaces. The book also has appendices on mathematical logic and the decimal system. The entire text (omitting some less central topics) can be taught in two quarters of 25–30 lectures each. The course material is deeply intertwined with the exercises, as it is intended that the student actively learn the material (and practice thinking and writing ri...

  1. Analysis I

    CERN Document Server

    Tao, Terence

    2016-01-01

    This is part one of a two-volume book on real analysis and is intended for senior undergraduate students of mathematics who have already been exposed to calculus. The emphasis is on rigour and foundations of analysis. Beginning with the construction of the number systems and set theory, the book discusses the basics of analysis (limits, series, continuity, differentiation, Riemann integration), through to power series, several variable calculus and Fourier analysis, and then finally the Lebesgue integral. These are almost entirely set in the concrete setting of the real line and Euclidean spaces, although there is some material on abstract metric and topological spaces. The book also has appendices on mathematical logic and the decimal system. The entire text (omitting some less central topics) can be taught in two quarters of 25–30 lectures each. The course material is deeply intertwined with the exercises, as it is intended that the student actively learn the material (and practice thinking and writing ri...

  2. Biorefinery Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-06-01

    Fact sheet summarizing NREL's techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment capabilities to connect research with future commercial process integration, a critical step in the scale-up of biomass conversion technologies.

  3. CSF Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a chronic disease, such as multiple sclerosis or Alzheimer disease . Depending on a person's history, a healthcare provider may order CSF analysis when some combination of the following signs and symptoms appear, especially when accompanied by flu-like symptoms ...

  4. Conversation Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffrin, Deborah

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the current state of research in conversation analysis, referring primarily to six different perspectives that have developed from the philosophy, sociology, anthropology, and linguistics disciplines. These include pragmatics; speech act theory; interactional sociolinguistics; ethnomethodology; ethnography of communication; and…

  5. Hydroeconomic analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Riegels, Niels; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2017-01-01

    Hydroeconomic analysis and modeling provides a consistent and quantitative framework to assess the links between water resources systems and economic activities related to water use, simultaneously modeling water supply and water demand. It supports water managers and decision makers in assessing...... trade-offs between different water uses, different geographic regions, and various economic sectors and between the present and the future. Hydroeconomic analysis provides consistent economic performance criteria for infrastructure development and institutional reform in water policies and management...... organizations. This chapter presents an introduction to hydroeconomic analysis and modeling, and reviews the state of the art in the field. We review available economic water-valuation techniques and summarize the main types of decision problems encountered in hydroeconomic analysis. Popular solution strategies...

  6. Surface analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsella, T

    2006-10-01

    Surface analysis techniques are important tools to use in the verification of surface cleanliness and medical device functionality. How these techniques can be employed and some example applications are described.

  7. Conversation Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffrin, Deborah

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the current state of research in conversation analysis, referring primarily to six different perspectives that have developed from the philosophy, sociology, anthropology, and linguistics disciplines. These include pragmatics; speech act theory; interactional sociolinguistics; ethnomethodology; ethnography of communication; and…

  8. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Scott, L Ridgway

    2011-01-01

    Computational science is fundamentally changing how technological questions are addressed. The design of aircraft, automobiles, and even racing sailboats is now done by computational simulation. The mathematical foundation of this new approach is numerical analysis, which studies algorithms for computing expressions defined with real numbers. Emphasizing the theory behind the computation, this book provides a rigorous and self-contained introduction to numerical analysis and presents the advanced mathematics that underpin industrial software, including complete details that are missing from m

  9. Link Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoho, Steve

    Link analysis is a collection of techniques that operate on data that can be represented as nodes and links. This chapter surveys a variety of techniques including subgraph matching, finding cliques and K-plexes, maximizing spread of influence, visualization, finding hubs and authorities, and combining with traditional techniques (classification, clustering, etc). It also surveys applications including social network analysis, viral marketing, Internet search, fraud detection, and crime prevention.

  10. Factor analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gorsuch, Richard L

    2013-01-01

    Comprehensive and comprehensible, this classic covers the basic and advanced topics essential for using factor analysis as a scientific tool in psychology, education, sociology, and related areas. Emphasizing the usefulness of the techniques, it presents sufficient mathematical background for understanding and sufficient discussion of applications for effective use. This includes not only theory but also the empirical evaluations of the importance of mathematical distinctions for applied scientific analysis.

  11. Situational Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hoover, Kevin D.

    2016-01-01

    Situational analysis (also known as situational logic) was popularized by Karl Popper as an appropriate method for the interpretation of history and as a basis for a scientific social science. It seeks an objective posit ive explanation of behavior through imputing a dominant goal or motive to individuals and then identifying the action that would be objectively appropriate to the situation as the action actually taken. Popper regarded situational analysis as a generalization to all of social...

  12. Can we eliminate neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in favor of neoadjuvant multiagent chemotherapy for select stage II/III rectal adenocarcinomas: Analysis of the National Cancer Data base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Richard J; Liu, Yuan; Patel, Kirtesh; Zhong, Jim; Steuer, Conor E; Kooby, David A; Russell, Maria C; Gillespie, Theresa W; Landry, Jerome C

    2017-03-01

    Stage II and III rectal cancers have been effectively treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by definitive resection. Advancements in surgical technique and systemic therapy have prompted investigation of neoadjuvant multiagent chemotherapy (NMAC) regimens with the elimination of radiation (RT). The objective of the current study was to investigate factors that predict for the use of NCRT versus NMAC and compare outcomes using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) for select stage II and III rectal cancers. In the NCDB, 21,707 patients from 2004 through 2012 with clinical T2N1 (cT2N1), cT3N0, or cT3N1 rectal cancers were identified who had received NCRT or NMAC followed by low anterior resection. Kaplan-Meier analyses, log-rank tests, and Cox-proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted along with propensity score matching analysis to reduce treatment selection bias. The 5-year actuarial overall survival (OS) rate was 75% for patients who received NCRT versus 67.2% for those who received NMAC (P < .01). On MVA, those who received NCRT had improved OS (hazard ratio, 0.77. P < .01), and this effect was confirmed on propensity score matching analysis (hazard ratio, 0.72; P = .01). In the same model, the following variables improved OS: age < 65 years, having private insurance, treatment at an academic center, living in an affluent zip code, a low comorbidity score, receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy, and a shorter interval before surgery (all P < .05). African Americans, men, patients with high-grade tumors, those with cT3N1 tumors, and those who underwent incomplete (R1) resection had worse OS (all P < .05). In this series, the elimination of neoadjuvant RT for select patients with stage II and III rectal adenocarcinoma was associated with worse OS and should not be recommended outside of a clinical trial. Cancer 2017;123:783-93. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

  13. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  14. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DiBenedetto, Emmanuele

    2016-01-01

    The second edition of this classic textbook presents a rigorous and self-contained introduction to real analysis with the goal of providing a solid foundation for future coursework and research in applied mathematics. Written in a clear and concise style, it covers all of the necessary subjects as well as those often absent from standard introductory texts. Each chapter features a “Problems and Complements” section that includes additional material that briefly expands on certain topics within the chapter and numerous exercises for practicing the key concepts. The first eight chapters explore all of the basic topics for training in real analysis, beginning with a review of countable sets before moving on to detailed discussions of measure theory, Lebesgue integration, Banach spaces, functional analysis, and weakly differentiable functions. More topical applications are discussed in the remaining chapters, such as maximal functions, functions of bounded mean oscillation, rearrangements, potential theory, a...

  15. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, G Shanker

    2006-01-01

    About the Book: This book provides an introduction to Numerical Analysis for the students of Mathematics and Engineering. The book is designed in accordance with the common core syllabus of Numerical Analysis of Universities of Andhra Pradesh and also the syllabus prescribed in most of the Indian Universities. Salient features: Approximate and Numerical Solutions of Algebraic and Transcendental Equation Interpolation of Functions Numerical Differentiation and Integration and Numerical Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations The last three chapters deal with Curve Fitting, Eigen Values and Eigen Vectors of a Matrix and Regression Analysis. Each chapter is supplemented with a number of worked-out examples as well as number of problems to be solved by the students. This would help in the better understanding of the subject. Contents: Errors Solution of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations Finite Differences Interpolation with Equal Intervals Interpolation with Unequal Int...

  16. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Jacques, Ian

    1987-01-01

    This book is primarily intended for undergraduates in mathematics, the physical sciences and engineering. It introduces students to most of the techniques forming the core component of courses in numerical analysis. The text is divided into eight chapters which are largely self-contained. However, with a subject as intricately woven as mathematics, there is inevitably some interdependence between them. The level of difficulty varies and, although emphasis is firmly placed on the methods themselves rather than their analysis, we have not hesitated to include theoretical material when we consider it to be sufficiently interesting. However, it should be possible to omit those parts that do seem daunting while still being able to follow the worked examples and to tackle the exercises accompanying each section. Familiarity with the basic results of analysis and linear algebra is assumed since these are normally taught in first courses on mathematical methods. For reference purposes a list of theorems used in the t...

  17. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Loeb, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    This textbook is designed for a year-long course in real analysis taken by beginning graduate and advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and other areas such as statistics, engineering, and economics. Written by one of the leading scholars in the field, it elegantly explores the core concepts in real analysis and introduces new, accessible methods for both students and instructors. The first half of the book develops both Lebesgue measure and, with essentially no additional work for the student, general Borel measures for the real line. Notation indicates when a result holds only for Lebesgue measure. Differentiation and absolute continuity are presented using a local maximal function, resulting in an exposition that is both simpler and more general than the traditional approach. The second half deals with general measures and functional analysis, including Hilbert spaces, Fourier series, and the Riesz representation theorem for positive linear functionals on continuous functions with compact support....

  18. Piping Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    Burns & McDonnell provide architectural and engineering services in planning, design and construction of a wide range of projects all over the world. In design analysis, company regularly uses COSMIC computer programs. In computer testing piping design of a power plant, company uses Pipe Flexibility Analysis Program (MEL-21) to analyze stresses due to weight, temperature, and pressure found in proposed piping systems. Individual flow rates are put into the computer, then computer calculates the pressure drop existing across each component; if needed, design corrections or adjustments can be made and rechecked.

  19. Elementary analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Snell, K S; Langford, W J; Maxwell, E A

    1966-01-01

    Elementary Analysis, Volume 2 introduces several of the ideas of modern mathematics in a casual manner and provides the practical experience in algebraic and analytic operations that lays a sound foundation of basic skills. This book focuses on the nature of number, algebraic and logical structure, groups, rings, fields, vector spaces, matrices, sequences, limits, functions and inverse functions, complex numbers, and probability. The logical structure of analysis given through the treatment of differentiation and integration, with applications to the trigonometric and logarithmic functions, is

  20. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Brezinski, C

    2012-01-01

    Numerical analysis has witnessed many significant developments in the 20th century. This book brings together 16 papers dealing with historical developments, survey papers and papers on recent trends in selected areas of numerical analysis, such as: approximation and interpolation, solution of linear systems and eigenvalue problems, iterative methods, quadrature rules, solution of ordinary-, partial- and integral equations. The papers are reprinted from the 7-volume project of the Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics on '/homepage/sac/cam/na2000/index.html<

  1. Outlier analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aggarwal, Charu C

    2013-01-01

    With the increasing advances in hardware technology for data collection, and advances in software technology (databases) for data organization, computer scientists have increasingly participated in the latest advancements of the outlier analysis field. Computer scientists, specifically, approach this field based on their practical experiences in managing large amounts of data, and with far fewer assumptions- the data can be of any type, structured or unstructured, and may be extremely large.Outlier Analysis is a comprehensive exposition, as understood by data mining experts, statisticians and

  2. Image Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The 19th Scandinavian Conference on Image Analysis was held at the IT University of Copenhagen in Denmark during June 15-17, 2015. The SCIA conference series has been an ongoing biannual event for more than 30 years and over the years it has nurtured a world-class regional research and development....... The topics of the accepted papers range from novel applications of vision systems, pattern recognition, machine learning, feature extraction, segmentation, 3D vision, to medical and biomedical image analysis. The papers originate from all the Scandinavian countries and several other European countries...

  3. Cluster analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Everitt, Brian S; Leese, Morven; Stahl, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Cluster analysis comprises a range of methods for classifying multivariate data into subgroups. By organizing multivariate data into such subgroups, clustering can help reveal the characteristics of any structure or patterns present. These techniques have proven useful in a wide range of areas such as medicine, psychology, market research and bioinformatics.This fifth edition of the highly successful Cluster Analysis includes coverage of the latest developments in the field and a new chapter dealing with finite mixture models for structured data.Real life examples are used throughout to demons

  4. Nonlinear analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Nanda, Sudarsan

    2013-01-01

    "Nonlinear analysis" presents recent developments in calculus in Banach space, convex sets, convex functions, best approximation, fixed point theorems, nonlinear operators, variational inequality, complementary problem and semi-inner-product spaces. Nonlinear Analysis has become important and useful in the present days because many real world problems are nonlinear, nonconvex and nonsmooth in nature. Although basic concepts have been presented here but many results presented have not appeared in any book till now. The book could be used as a text for graduate students and also it will be useful for researchers working in this field.

  5. Defining the key-parameters of insurance product in Islamic insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galim Zaribzyanovich Vakhitov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective to define the range of actuarial calculations in Islamic insurance to study the main differences of the traditional and Islamic insurance to define what changes in calculations entail the above differences. Methods mathematical modeling probabilistic analysis of insurance risks adaptation of methods of actuarial mathematics to the principles of Islamic insurance. Results the mathematical form of the takafulfund models is presented the distribution is analyzed of a random variable of the resulting insurance fund or the insurance company balance in a particular fixed insurance portfolio. Scientific novelty calculation are presented of the optimal tariff rate in takaful. Islamic insurance is an innovative area of insurance industry. Actuarial calculations that meet the Sharia rules are still being developed. The authors set the new tasks of actuarial calculations including the specified changes in the calculation of the optimal tariff rate imposed by the Islamic insurance principles. Practical value the results obtained can be used in the actuarial calculations of the Islamic insurance companies. nbsp

  6. Poetic Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kirsten

    2010-01-01

    The first part of this article presents the characteristics of Hebrew poetry: features associated with rhythm and phonology, grammatical features, structural elements like parallelism, and imagery and intertextuality. The second part consists of an analysis of Psalm 121. It is argued that assonan...

  7. Learner Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song Xuexia

    2005-01-01

    @@ In the past, more attempts had been made to explore the ways for teachers to teach English but fewer for learners to learn the language. Learner analysis is to analyze "What the learner is", including age, attitude, motivation, intelligence,aptitude, personality , and etc, with the purpose to realize the transition from "teacher-centered" into "learner-oriented".

  8. Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Rupert G

    2011-01-01

    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  9. Domain analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2017-01-01

    The domain-analytic approach to knowledge organization (KO) (and to the broader field of library and information science, LIS) is outlined. The article reviews the discussions and proposals on the definition of domains, and provides an example of a domain-analytic study in the field of art studie....... Varieties of domain analysis as well as criticism and controversies are presented and discussed....

  10. Exergy analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dovjak, M.; Simone, Angela; Kolarik, Jakub

    2011-01-01

    Exergy analysis enables us to make connections among processes inside the human body and processes in a building. So far, only the effect of different combinations of air temperatures and mean radiant temperatures have been studied, with constant relative humidity in experimental conditions...

  11. Frontier Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Assaf, A. George; Josiassen, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    and macro applications of these approaches, summarizing and critically reviewing the characteristics of the existing studies. We also conduct a meta-analysis to create an overview of the efficiency results of frontier applications. This allows for an investigation of the impact of frontier methodology...

  12. Poetic Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kirsten

    2010-01-01

    The first part of this article presents the characteristics of Hebrew poetry: features associated with rhythm and phonology, grammatical features, structural elements like parallelism, and imagery and intertextuality. The second part consists of an analysis of Psalm 121. It is argued that assonance...

  13. Genre Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张楠

    2015-01-01

    Swales' CARS model is a robust method of genre analysis.The model is first designed for article introductions; its application covers a wide range from academic to non-academic. The present paper is completely a theoretical framework.At last,future research is proposed.

  14. Genre Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张楠

    2015-01-01

    Swales’ CARS model is a robust method of genre analysis.The model is first designed for article introductions; its application covers a wide range from academic to non-academic.The present paper is completely a theoretical framework.At last,future research is proposed.

  15. Regression Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, Rudolf J; Sa, Ping

    2006-01-01

    The book provides complete coverage of the classical methods of statistical analysis. It is designed to give students an understanding of the purpose of statistical analyses, to allow the student to determine, at least to some degree, the correct type of statistical analyses to be performed in a given situation, and have some appreciation of what constitutes good experimental design

  16. Inclusion Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Colver, David

    2010-01-01

    Inclusion analysis is the name given by Operis to a black box testing technique that it has found to make the checking of key financial ratios calculated by spreadsheet models quicker, easier and more likely to find omission errors than code inspection.

  17. Complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Freitag, Eberhard

    2005-01-01

    The guiding principle of this presentation of ``Classical Complex Analysis'' is to proceed as quickly as possible to the central results while using a small number of notions and concepts from other fields. Thus the prerequisites for understanding this book are minimal; only elementary facts of calculus and algebra are required. The first four chapters cover the essential core of complex analysis: - differentiation in C (including elementary facts about conformal mappings) - integration in C (including complex line integrals, Cauchy's Integral Theorem, and the Integral Formulas) - sequences and series of analytic functions, (isolated) singularities, Laurent series, calculus of residues - construction of analytic functions: the gamma function, Weierstrass' Factorization Theorem, Mittag-Leffler Partial Fraction Decomposition, and -as a particular highlight- the Riemann Mapping Theorem, which characterizes the simply connected domains in C. Further topics included are: - the theory of elliptic functions based on...

  18. CMB Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bond, J R; Crittenden, Robert G.

    2001-01-01

    We describe the subject of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis - its past, present and future. The theory of Gaussian primary anisotropies, those arising from linear physics operating in the early Universe, is in reasonably good shape so the focus has shifted to the statistical pipeline which confronts the data with the theory: mapping, filtering, comparing, cleaning, compressing, forecasting, estimating. There have been many algorithmic advances in the analysis pipeline in recent years, but still more are needed for the forecasts of high precision cosmic parameter estimation to be realized. For secondary anisotropies, those arising once nonlinearity develops, the computational state of the art currently needs effort in all the areas: the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect, inhomogeneous reionization, gravitational lensing, the Rees-Sciama effect, dusty galaxies. We use the Sunyaev-Zeldovich example to illustrate the issues. The direct interface with observations for these non-Gaussian signals is much more compl...

  19. Wavelet analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, Lizhi; Luo, Yong; Chen, Bo

    2014-01-01

    This book could be divided into two parts i.e. fundamental wavelet transform theory and method and some important applications of wavelet transform. In the first part, as preliminary knowledge, the Fourier analysis, inner product space, the characteristics of Haar functions, and concepts of multi-resolution analysis, are introduced followed by a description on how to construct wavelet functions both multi-band and multi wavelets, and finally introduces the design of integer wavelets via lifting schemes and its application to integer transform algorithm. In the second part, many applications are discussed in the field of image and signal processing by introducing other wavelet variants such as complex wavelets, ridgelets, and curvelets. Important application examples include image compression, image denoising/restoration, image enhancement, digital watermarking, numerical solution of partial differential equations, and solving ill-conditioned Toeplitz system. The book is intended for senior undergraduate stude...

  20. Mathematical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson, J. A.

    1984-01-01

    Simple continuum models used in the design, analysis, and control of large space structures are examined. Particular emphasis is placed on boundary value problems associated with the Load Correction Method and control problems involving partial differential equations for the large space structure models. Partial differential equations will be used to model a large space structure, base the design of an optimal controller on this model, approximate the resulting optimal control model, and compare the results with data from other methods.

  1. Spectral Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cecconi, Jaures

    2011-01-01

    G. Bottaro: Quelques resultats d'analyse spectrale pour des operateurs differentiels a coefficients constants sur des domaines non bornes.- L. Garding: Eigenfuction expansions.- C. Goulaouic: Valeurs propres de problemes aux limites irreguliers: applications.- G. Grubb: Essential spectra of elliptic systems on compact manifolds.- J.Cl. Guillot: Quelques resultats recents en Scattering.- N. Schechter: Theory of perturbations of partial differential operators.- C.H. Wilcox: Spectral analysis of the Laplacian with a discontinuous coefficient.

  2. Mathematical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson, J. A.

    1984-01-01

    Simple continuum models used in the design, analysis, and control of large space structures are examined. Particular emphasis is placed on boundary value problems associated with the Load Correction Method and control problems involving partial differential equations for the large space structure models. Partial differential equations will be used to model a large space structure, base the design of an optimal controller on this model, approximate the resulting optimal control model, and compare the results with data from other methods.

  3. Elastodynamic Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This book contains the lecture notes for the 9th semester course on elastodynamics. The first chapter gives an overview of the basic theory of stress waves propagating in viscoelastic media. In particular, the effect of surfaces and interfaces in a viscoelastic material is studied, and different ....... Thus, in Chapter 3, an alternative semi-analytic method is derived, which may be applied for the analysis of layered half-spaces subject to moving or stationary loads....

  4. Elastodynamic Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This book contains the lecture notes for the 9th semester course on elastodynamics. The first chapter gives an overview of the basic theory of stress waves propagating in viscoelastic media. In particular, the effect of surfaces and interfaces in a viscoelastic material is studied, and different ....... Thus, in Chapter 3, an alternative semi-analytic method is derived, which may be applied for the analysis of layered half-spaces subject to moving or stationary loads....

  5. Chromosome Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    Perceptive Scientific Instruments, Inc., provides the foundation for the Powergene line of chromosome analysis and molecular genetic instrumentation. This product employs image processing technology from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and image enhancement techniques from Johnson Space Center. Originally developed to send pictures back to earth from space probes, digital imaging techniques have been developed and refined for use in a variety of medical applications, including diagnosis of disease.

  6. Paleoenvironmental analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arobba, Daniele; Boscato, Paolo; Boschian, Giovanni; Falgueres, Christophe; Fasani, Leone; Peretto, Carlo; Sala, Benedetto; Hohenstein, Ursula Thun; Tozzi, Carlo

    2004-06-01

    New analysis has been carried out concerning the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of some Italian sites dating from the Middle Pleistocene to the Bronze Age. Different aspects have been investigated on each site considering the data collected. The following sites have been analyzed: Isernia La Pineta (Molise); Visogliano and Caverna degli Orsi (Tieste); Toirano Caves (Liguria); Grotta Paglicci (Gargano); Riparo del Molare (Salerno); Grotta del Cavallo (Lecce); Castellaro Lagusello (Monzambano, Mantova).

  7. Gallstone Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fransiska Putri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Gallstone is a crystal deposit which is formed in the gallbladder or bile duct. Gallstone is classified into cholesterol stone, pigment stone (black and brown, and mixed stone. Mechanism which underlies the formation of cholesterol or pigment gallstone is different. Information on chemical component of the stone will assist the management and prevention of its recurrence. Analysis of gallstone component can be performed by colorimetry method or even gas liquid chromatography (GLC. Chemical component analysis of gallstone by colorimetry includes examination of cholesterol, bilirubin, and calcium. Stone is classified as cholesterol stone if the cholesterol content is > 80%, pigment stone if cholesterol content is < 20%, and mixed stone if cholesterol content is 25-80%. Gallstone analysis by GLC method is conducted by separation of fatty acid chain and evaluation of fatty acid quantity in the methylester derivatives form, which is fatty acid methyl estered. Fatty acid content in cholesterol stone (310.09 + 49.7 mg/gram is higher compared to pigment stone (55.59 +7.71 mg/gram. Saturated to unsaturated fatty acid (S/U ration in cholesterol stone (8.6 + 3.1 is higher compared to pigment stone (4.8 + 1.5.

  8. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  9. Duodenal surveillance improves the prognosis after duodenal cancer in familial adenomatous polyposis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bülow, Steffen; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Højen, Helle

    2012-01-01

    of cancer development. Method:  Follow-up of patients in a previous study with gastroduodenoscopy in 1990-2010. Statistical analysis included chi(2) test, actuarial method and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results:  Among 304 patients, 261 (86%) had more than one endoscopy. The median follow-up was 14 years...

  10. Duodenal surveillance improves the prognosis after duodenal cancer in familial adenomatous polyposis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bülow, Steffen; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Højen, Helle

    2012-01-01

    of cancer development. Method: Follow-up of patients in a previous study with gastroduodenoscopy in 1990-2010. Statistical analysis included chi(2) test, actuarial method and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: Among 304 patients, 261 (86%) had more than one endoscopy. The median follow-up was 14 years...

  11. Robust Modeling of Complex Systems with Heavy Tails and Long Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-16

    networks including data networks, reliability estimation, risk analysis and financial control. The models are typically non-Gaussian, often driven...networks, reliability estimation, risk analysis and financial control. The models are typically non-Gaussian, often driven by Poisson or Levy noises...cluster model, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal , (09 2011): 0. doi: Gennady Samorodnitsky, Sami Umut Can, Thomas Mikosch. Weak convergence of the

  12. Sequential analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Wald, Abraham

    2013-01-01

    In 1943, while in charge of Columbia University's Statistical Research Group, Abraham Wald devised Sequential Design, an innovative statistical inference system. Because the decision to terminate an experiment is not predetermined, sequential analysis can arrive at a decision much sooner and with substantially fewer observations than equally reliable test procedures based on a predetermined number of observations. The system's immense value was immediately recognized, and its use was restricted to wartime research and procedures. In 1945, it was released to the public and has since revolutio

  13. Vector analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Brand, Louis

    2006-01-01

    The use of vectors not only simplifies treatments of differential geometry, mechanics, hydrodynamics, and electrodynamics, but also makes mathematical and physical concepts more tangible and easy to grasp. This text for undergraduates was designed as a short introductory course to give students the tools of vector algebra and calculus, as well as a brief glimpse into these subjects' manifold applications. The applications are developed to the extent that the uses of the potential function, both scalar and vector, are fully illustrated. Moreover, the basic postulates of vector analysis are brou

  14. Grammar Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PEI Yuan-yuan

    2013-01-01

      As the development of the global communication all over the world, English has become the international language for the global communication. Furthermore, speaking as a skill in English language learning becomes more and more important. As it is known, spoken English has specific features, thus to gain an explicit understanding of the features data analysis is helpful. Moreover it is useful for language teacher to make development in teaching to satisfy learner’s needs. Grammatical and phonological are the two remarkable aspects and specific features in spoken language therefore to discover elements into these aspects seems helpful to teaching spoken Enlgish.

  15. Vector analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Newell, Homer E

    2006-01-01

    When employed with skill and understanding, vector analysis can be a practical and powerful tool. This text develops the algebra and calculus of vectors in a manner useful to physicists and engineers. Numerous exercises (with answers) not only provide practice in manipulation but also help establish students' physical and geometric intuition in regard to vectors and vector concepts.Part I, the basic portion of the text, consists of a thorough treatment of vector algebra and the vector calculus. Part II presents the illustrative matter, demonstrating applications to kinematics, mechanics, and e

  16. A national cohort study of long-course preoperative radiotherapy in primary fixed rectal cancer in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bulow, S.; Jensen, L.H.; Altaf, R.

    2010-01-01

    of radiotherapy concerning technique of radiotherapy, dose and fractionation and use of concomitant chemotherapy. Outcome was determined by actuarial analysis of local control, disease-free survival and overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 258 patients with fixed rectal cancer received long-course radiotherapy......-7%), and the actuarial distant recurrence rate was 41% (95% CI: 35-47%). The cumulative 5-year disease-free survival was 27% (95% CI: 22-32%) and overall 5-year survival was 34% (95% CI: 29-39%). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first population-based report on outcome of preoperative long-course radiotherapy in a large...

  17. Understanding analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Abbott, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    This lively introductory text exposes the student to the rewards of a rigorous study of functions of a real variable. In each chapter, informal discussions of questions that give analysis its inherent fascination are followed by precise, but not overly formal, developments of the techniques needed to make sense of them. By focusing on the unifying themes of approximation and the resolution of paradoxes that arise in the transition from the finite to the infinite, the text turns what could be a daunting cascade of definitions and theorems into a coherent and engaging progression of ideas. Acutely aware of the need for rigor, the student is much better prepared to understand what constitutes a proper mathematical proof and how to write one. Fifteen years of classroom experience with the first edition of Understanding Analysis have solidified and refined the central narrative of the second edition. Roughly 150 new exercises join a selection of the best exercises from the first edition, and three more project-sty...

  18. Evaluation of Current Consensus Statement Recommendations for Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation: A Pooled Analysis of William Beaumont Hospital and American Society of Breast Surgeon MammoSite Registry Trial Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, J. Ben [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Beitsch, Peter D. [Dallas Surgical Group, Dallas, Texas (United States); Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, Missouri (United States); Arthur, Doug [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massey Cancer Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Camden, New Jersey (United States); Wazer, David E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts and Rhode Island Hospital/Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Keisch, Martin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Healthcare Associates, Miami, Florida (United States); Shaitelman, Simona F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Lyden, Maureen [Biostat International, Inc, Tampa, Florida (United States); Chen, Peter Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@pol.net [Department of Radiation Oncology, Michigan Healthcare Professionals/21st Century Oncology, Farmington Hills, Michigan (United States)

    2013-04-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) Consensus Statement (CS) recommendations for accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) are associated with significantly different outcomes in a pooled analysis from William Beaumont Hospital (WBH) and the American Society of Breast Surgeons (ASBrS) MammoSite® Registry Trial. Methods and Materials: APBI was used to treat 2127 cases of early-stage breast cancer (WBH, n=678; ASBrS, n=1449). Three forms of APBI were used at WBH (interstitial, n=221; balloon-based, n=255; or 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy, n=206), whereas all Registry Trial patients received balloon-based brachytherapy. Patients were divided according to the ASTRO CS into suitable (n=661, 36.5%), cautionary (n=850, 46.9%), and unsuitable (n=302, 16.7%) categories. Tumor characteristics and clinical outcomes were analyzed according to CS group. Results: The median age was 65 years (range, 32-94 years), and the median tumor size was 10.0 mm (range, 0-45 mm). The median follow-up time was 60.6 months. The WBH cohort had more node-positive disease (6.9% vs 2.6%, P<.01) and cautionary patients (49.5% vs 41.8%, P=.06). The 5-year actuarial ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), regional nodal failure (RNF), and distant metastasis (DM) for the whole cohort were 2.8%, 0.6%, 1.6%. The rate of IBTR was not statistically higher between suitable (2.5%), cautionary (3.3%), or unsuitable (4.6%) patients (P=.20). The nonsignificant increase in IBTR for the cautionary and unsuitable categories was due to increased elsewhere failures and new primaries (P=.04), not tumor bed recurrence (P=.93). Conclusions: Excellent outcomes after breast-conserving surgery and APBI were seen in our pooled analysis. The current ASTRO CS guidelines did not adequately differentiate patients at an increased risk of IBTR or tumor bed failure in this large patient cohort.

  19. Valoración actuarial de un plan de pensiones según los métodos individual y agregado de la edad normal de entrada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco José Peláez Fermoso

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo que nos proponemos en este trabajo es realizar un análisis comparativo entre los valores que alcanzan las funciones más relevantes del plan cuando se utilizan para su valoración el Método Individual o el Método Agregado de la Edad Normal de Entrada. Para ello, describimos un modelo representativo de un plan de pensiones de prestación definida creado por una empresa a favor de sus empleados. Posteriormente, hacemos una simulación práctica del modelo considerando distintos escenarios posibles que pueden representar el contexto económico y social futuro. Con los resultados obtenidos de la misma, el gestor financiero del plan dispondrá de información suficiente para conocer en qué casos y para qué tipos de empresas es más conveniente aplicar uno u otro método de distribución de costes.

  20. To Push Forward Sustainable Development of China's Actuary%推动我国精算事业可持续发展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏迎宁

    2009-01-01

    @@ 2008年秋天,全球金融危机爆发.面对危机,各国政府普遍采取了有力的应对措施,并加强各国政府间的合作,有效遏制了全球经济快速下滑的势头.中国政府采取的应对金融危机的措施,已经初见成效,经济运行出现了积极变化,总体形势企稳向上.

  1. Strengths and limitations of actuarial prediction of criminal reoffence in a German prison sample: a comparative study of LSI-R, HCR-20 and PCL-R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahle, Klaus-Peter

    2006-01-01

    Unlike many other countries, for many years, Germany disregarded structured instruments for assessing the risk of criminal reoffence. However, this negative attitude now seems to be gradually changing. An increasing number of contributions regarding structured instruments have been published in the German literature in the last years, and some instruments have already found their way into practice. However, studies that systematically examine the applicability of the mostly Anglo-American instruments to German criminals are still lacking. Therefore, the major objective of the current study was to test some internationally established procedures in a larger unselected sample from the German penal system. The following were included in the study: the Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R), the HCR-20 Scheme, and the Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R). On the whole, the instruments proved to be applicable to German criminals with only a few adaptations to the German situation, and they achieved a predictive accuracy comparable to the values reported internationally. However, there were only minor differences in the predictive performance between the measures. Moreover, some basic limitations became apparent. Firstly, we found quite high percentages of criminals with medium scores and a correspondingly ambiguous prognosis. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy seemed to be dependent on demographic, criminological and psychopathological characteristics of the offenders. Finally, the instruments appeared to only partially utilize the empirical store of knowledge available regarding factors influencing the recidivism of criminals, since even a simple predictive model that only added a few further aspects besides the tested instruments (e. g. treatment yes or no) achieved systematically better predictions than the instruments alone. Altogether, the tested measures turned out to be useful instruments for risk assessments and may be conducive for a more systemized practice. However, due to the limitations inherent, they should be seen as a complement to a careful and clinically informed appraisal and not a substitute.

  2. 长期护理保险精算模型的建立%Actuarial Model for Long Term Care Insurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈岱婉

    2007-01-01

    引入Semi-Markov模型研究转移概率、转移强度与护理时间的关系,尝试对长期护理保险的赔付慨率和纯保费进行探讨,最后得到长期护理保险的总保费的精算模型.

  3. EL FACTOR DE SOSTENIBILIDAD: DISEÑOS ALTERNATIVOS Y VALORACIÓN FINANCIERO - ACTUARIAL DE SUS EFECTOS SOBRE LOS PARÁMETROS DEL SISTEMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Meneu Gaya

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available La Ley 27/2011, que reforma el sistema de pensiones español, introduce el factor de sostenibilidad, un instrumento que ajusta automáticamente los parámetros del sistema a la evolución de la esperanza de vida a partir del año 2027 y con revisiones cada 5 años, aunque la reciente Ley Orgánica 2/2012 de Estabilidad Presupuestaria y Sostenibilidad Financiera abre la posibilidad de que se anticipe su entrada en vigor si se proyecta un déficit a largo plazo en el sistema de pensiones. Dado que el diseño concreto del factor de sostenibilidad está pendiente, resulta relevante analizar cómo otros países de la Unión Europea han incorporado instrumentos similares en sus sistemas de pensiones y, desde esas experiencias, ofrecer diseños alternativos para el caso español, valorando los efectos de cada uno de ellos sobre los parámetros del sistema, utilizando para ello las recientes proyecciones de esperanza de vida del Instituto Nacional de Estadística. La Ley 27/2011, que reforma el sistema de pensiones español, introduce el factor de sostenibilidad, un instrumento que ajusta automáticamente los parámetros del sistema a la evolución de la esperanza de vida a partir del año 2027 y con revisiones cada 5 años, aunque la reciente Ley Orgánica 2/2012 de Estabilidad Presupuestaria y Sostenibilidad Financiera abre la posibilidad de que se anticipe su entrada en vigor si se proyecta un déficit a largo plazo en el sistema de pensiones. Dado que el diseño concreto del factor de sostenibilidad está pendiente, resulta relevante analizar cómo otros países de la Unión Europea han incorporado instrumentos similares en sus sistemas de pensiones y, desde esas experiencias, ofrecer diseños alternativos para el caso español, valorando los efectos de cada uno de ellos sobre los parámetros del sistema, utilizando para ello las recientes proyecciones de esperanza de vida del Instituto Nacional de Estadística.

  4. 76 FR 59434 - Proposed Exemptions From Certain Prohibited Transaction Restrictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-26

    ... at least 80% as of January 1, 2012, as determined by the Plan's actuary (the Actuary), without taking... minimum funding requirements, AFTAP and funding target attainment percentage, the Actuary will not count..., 2011 was $360.9 million. The Plan's independent actuary, AON Hewitt (the Actuary) has determined...

  5. 76 FR 75912 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-05

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Meeting of the Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial... the Enrollment of Actuaries, (202) 622- 8225. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given...

  6. 76 FR 34750 - Advisory Committee Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-14

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial... W. McDonough, Executive Director of the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries, 202-622-...

  7. 20 CFR 901.0 - Scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... perform actuarial services; subpart B of this part sets forth rules governing the enrollment of actuaries; subpart C of this part sets forth standards of performance to which enrolled actuaries must...

  8. 76 FR 32242 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Normal Cost Percentages

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-03

    ... requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary... costs are determined. In its meeting on June 11, 2010, the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service... valuations of FERS. The Board reviewed statistical data prepared by the OPM actuaries and considered...

  9. 78 FR 73564 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-06

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Meeting of the Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries, 703-414- 2173. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is...

  10. 75 FR 35098 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Normal Cost Percentages

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-21

    ... requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary... determined. Recently, the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System concluded that there.... The Board reviewed statistical data prepared by the OPM actuaries and considered trends that...

  11. 20 CFR 901.1 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Actuarial Services § 901.1 Definitions. As used in this part, the term: (a) Actuarial experience means the... experience means actuarial experience: (1) Involving participation in making determinations that the methods... alternatives involved in such actuarial services. (c) Month of responsible actuarial experience means a month...

  12. Matrix analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bhatia, Rajendra

    1997-01-01

    A good part of matrix theory is functional analytic in spirit. This statement can be turned around. There are many problems in operator theory, where most of the complexities and subtleties are present in the finite-dimensional case. My purpose in writing this book is to present a systematic treatment of methods that are useful in the study of such problems. This book is intended for use as a text for upper division and gradu­ ate courses. Courses based on parts of the material have been given by me at the Indian Statistical Institute and at the University of Toronto (in collaboration with Chandler Davis). The book should also be useful as a reference for research workers in linear algebra, operator theory, mathe­ matical physics and numerical analysis. A possible subtitle of this book could be Matrix Inequalities. A reader who works through the book should expect to become proficient in the art of deriving such inequalities. Other authors have compared this art to that of cutting diamonds. One first has to...

  13. Functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kesavan, S

    2009-01-01

    The material presented in this book is suited for a first course in Functional Analysis which can be followed by Masters students. While covering all the standard material expected of such a course, efforts have been made to illustrate the use of various theorems via examples taken from differential equations and the calculus of variations, either through brief sections or through exercises. In fact, this book will be particularly useful for students who would like to pursue a research career in the applications of mathematics. The book includes a chapter on weak and weak topologies and their applications to the notions of reflexivity, separability and uniform convexity. The chapter on the Lebesgue spaces also presents the theory of one of the simplest classes of Sobolev spaces. The book includes a chapter on compact operators and the spectral theory for compact self-adjoint operators on a Hilbert space. Each chapter has large collection of exercises at the end. These illustrate the results of the text, show ...

  14. Uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

  15. Experimental modal analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the basic theory and principles for experimental modal analysis. The sections within the report are: Output-only modal analysis software, general digital analysis, basics of structural dynamics and modal analysis and system identification. (au)

  16. Pleural Fluid Analysis Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home Visit Global Sites Search Help? Pleural Fluid Analysis Share this page: Was this page helpful? Formal name: Pleural Fluid Analysis Related tests: Pericardial Fluid Analysis , Peritoneal Fluid Analysis , ...

  17. Permanent interstitial low-dose-rate brachytherapy for patients with low risk prostate cancer. An interim analysis of 312 cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badakhshi, Harun; Graf, Reinhold; Budach, Volker; Wust, Peter [University Hospital Berlin, Department for Radiation Oncology of Charite School of Medicine, Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-01

    The biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS) rate after treatment with permanent iodine-125 seed implantation (PSI) or combined seeds and external beam radiotherapy (COMB) for clinical stage T1-T2 localized prostate cancer is a clinically relevant endpoint. The goal of this work was to evaluate the influence of relevant patient- and treatment-related factors. The study population comprised 312 consecutive patients treated with permanent seed implantation. All patients were evaluable for analysis of overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), 230 for bRFS, of which 192 were in the PSI group and 38 in the COMB group. The prescribed minimum peripheral dose was 145 Gy for PSI, for COMB 110 Gy implant and external beam radiotherapy of 45 Gy. The median follow-up time was 33 months (range 8-66 months). bRFS was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level ≤ 0.2 ng/ml at last follow-up. Overall, the actuarial bRFS at 50 months was 88.4 %. The 50-month bRFS rate for PSI and COMB was 90.9 %, and 77.2 %, respectively. In the univariate analysis, age in the categories ≤ 63 and > 63 years (p < 0.00), PSA nadir (≤ 0.5 ng/ml and > 0.5 ng/ml) and PSA bounce (yes/no) were the significant predicting factors for bRFS. None of the other patient and treatment variables (treatment modality, stage, PSA, Gleason score, risk group, number of risk factors, D90 and various other dose parameters) were found to be a statistically significant predictor of 50-month bRFS. The biochemical failure rates were low in this study. As a proof of principle, our large monocenteric analysis shows that low-dose-rate brachytherapy is an effective and safe procedure for patients with early stage prostate cancer. (orig.) [German] Das biochemisch rezidivfreie Ueberleben (bRFS) nach der Brachytherapie mit permanenter Iod-125-Seed-Implantation (PSI) oder in Kombination mit externer Radiotherapie (COMB) ist beim Patienten mit fruehem Prostatakarzinom (T1/T2) ein relevanter

  18. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  19. Theoretical numerical analysis a functional analysis framework

    CERN Document Server

    Atkinson, Kendall

    2005-01-01

    This textbook prepares graduate students for research in numerical analysis/computational mathematics by giving to them a mathematical framework embedded in functional analysis and focused on numerical analysis. This helps the student to move rapidly into a research program. The text covers basic results of functional analysis, approximation theory, Fourier analysis and wavelets, iteration methods for nonlinear equations, finite difference methods, Sobolev spaces and weak formulations of boundary value problems, finite element methods, elliptic variational inequalities and their numerical solu

  20. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  1. Community-Based Social Marketing: Involvement in Health Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Frank L.; Clarke, Leslie L.; Flocks, Joan D.; Bryant, Carol A.; Romund, Camilla S.; Albrecht, Stan L.

    2002-01-01

    Two community-based projects employed social marketing to design and implement interventions to promote health. The Arkansas project involved key informant interviews, actuarial analysis, citizen and student surveys, and participant observation. The Florida approach included focus groups and provider, worker, and employer surveys. (Contains 25…

  2. Phase II study on stereotactic body radiotherapy of colorectal metastases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoyer, Morten; Roed, Henrik; Traberg Hansen, Anders

    2006-01-01

    -up was 4.3 years. After 2 years, actuarial local control was 86% and 63% in tumor and patient based analysis, respectively. Nineteen percent were without local or distant progression after 2 years and overall survival was 67, 38, 22, 13, and 13% after 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years, respectively. One patient died...

  3. Teacher Survival in Oregon School Districts: First Results of a State-Wide Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, W.W., Jr.

    The careers of 799 male and 1,265 female teachers employed in Oregon school districts were traced for 4 years from 1962 to 1966 to determine the teachers' survival rates. The primary method of analysis chosen was an actuarial approach which involves construction of a survival curve showing numbers of teachers surviving after each period of time…

  4. Pursuing the Bottom Line: How the Middle East Will be Affected by an Aging America

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    program passes the short-range test of financial adequacy, it continues to fail the long- range test (75 years) of actuarial balance by a wide margin...52 2. Future Defense Projections ...............................................................53 3. Modeling the Future of...began with a regression analysis intended to prove that entitlement spending in any given year would explain a large portion of the variation in

  5. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  6. 48 CFR 2115.402 - Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Policy. 2115.402 Section... NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 2115.402 Policy. Pricing of FEGLI Program premium rates is governed by 5 U.S.C... analysis policies and procedures. To the extent that reasonable or good faith actuarial estimates are...

  7. 5 CFR 841.402 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...— Actuary means an associate or fellow in the Society of Actuaries and one who is enrolled under section... Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System. Category of employees means a grouping of employees...

  8. 77 FR 75416 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-20

    ... Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries (``the Board''). The Board is a non-discretionary... actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. The Board members shall serve for a term of 15...

  9. Task Analysis - Its Relation to Content Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagne, Robert M.

    Task analysis is a procedure having the purpose of identifying different kinds of performances which are outcomes of learning, in order to make possible the specification of optimal instructional conditions for each kind of outcome. Task analysis may be related to content analysis in two different ways: (1) it may be used to identify the probably…

  10. Shape analysis in medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Tavares, João

    2014-01-01

    This book contains thirteen contributions from invited experts of international recognition addressing important issues in shape analysis in medical image analysis, including techniques for image segmentation, registration, modelling and classification, and applications in biology, as well as in cardiac, brain, spine, chest, lung and clinical practice. This volume treats topics such as, anatomic and functional shape representation and matching; shape-based medical image segmentation; shape registration; statistical shape analysis; shape deformation; shape-based abnormity detection; shape tracking and longitudinal shape analysis; machine learning for shape modeling and analysis; shape-based computer-aided-diagnosis; shape-based medical navigation; benchmark and validation of shape representation, analysis and modeling algorithms. This work will be of interest to researchers, students, and manufacturers in the fields of artificial intelligence, bioengineering, biomechanics, computational mechanics, computationa...

  11. 77 FR 56913 - Privacy Act of 1974, as Amended

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-14

    ... actuaries, enrolled retirement plan agents, appraisers, registered tax return preparers, and any individual... accountant, enrolled agent, enrolled actuary, enrolled retirement plan agent, appraiser, registered...

  12. 76 FR 58514 - Medicare Program; Meeting of the Technical Advisory Panel on Medicare Trustee Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    ... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately...

  13. 76 FR 36539 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-22

    ... technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted... in nature and will focus on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which...

  14. 76 FR 19360 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-07

    ... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately...

  15. Experimental modal analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the basic theory and principles for experimental modal analysis. The sections within the report are: Output-only modal analysis software (section 1.1), general digital analysis (section 1.2), basics of structural dynamics and modal analysis (section 1.3) and system ...

  16. Foundations of factor analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Factor Analysis and Structural Theories Brief History of Factor Analysis as a Linear Model Example of Factor AnalysisMathematical Foundations for Factor Analysis Introduction Scalar AlgebraVectorsMatrix AlgebraDeterminants Treatment of Variables as Vectors Maxima and Minima of FunctionsComposite Variables and Linear Transformations Introduction Composite Variables Unweighted Composite VariablesDifferentially Weighted Composites Matrix EquationsMulti

  17. Critical Discourse Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜梅香

    2006-01-01

    This paper is about the discourse analysis and illustrate the approach to analysis the Critical discourses and the discourses about the educational situation of China. And it also includes the condensed theoretical support of the Critical discourse analysis and analysis of the sample I of the discourses between an illiterate person and the literate.

  18. K Basin Hazard Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PECH, S.H.

    2000-08-23

    This report describes the methodology used in conducting the K Basins Hazard Analysis, which provides the foundation for the K Basins Final Safety Analysis Report. This hazard analysis was performed in accordance with guidance provided by DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U. S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports and implements the requirements of DOE Order 5480.23, Nuclear Safety Analysis Report.

  19. K Basins Hazard Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WEBB, R.H.

    1999-12-29

    This report describes the methodology used in conducting the K Basins Hazard Analysis, which provides the foundation for the K Basins Safety Analysis Report (HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062, Rev.4). This hazard analysis was performed in accordance with guidance provided by DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U. S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports and implements the requirements of DOE Order 5480.23, Nuclear Safety Analysis Report.

  20. Integrated Sensitivity Analysis Workflow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman-Hill, Ernest J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hoffman, Edward L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gibson, Marcus J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clay, Robert L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a crucial element of rigorous engineering analysis, but performing such an analysis on a complex model is difficult and time consuming. The mission of the DART Workbench team at Sandia National Laboratories is to lower the barriers to adoption of advanced analysis tools through software integration. The integrated environment guides the engineer in the use of these integrated tools and greatly reduces the cycle time for engineering analysis.

  1. Citation Analysis and Discourse Analysis Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Howard D.

    2004-01-01

    John Swales's 1986 article "Citation analysis and discourse analysis" was written by a discourse analyst to introduce citation research from other fields, mainly sociology of science, to his own discipline. Here, I introduce applied linguists and discourse analysts to citation studies from information science, a complementary tradition not…

  2. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    CERN Document Server

    Grams, W H

    2000-01-01

    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U S . Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for HNF-SD-WM-SAR-067, Tank Farms Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved Authorization Basis (AB) for the River Protection Project (RPP). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the Tank Farms FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The Hazard Analysis Database supports the preparation of Chapters 3 ,4 , and 5 of the Tank Farms FSAR and the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Analysis Database: Data from t...

  3. Cluster analysis for applications

    CERN Document Server

    Anderberg, Michael R

    1973-01-01

    Cluster Analysis for Applications deals with methods and various applications of cluster analysis. Topics covered range from variables and scales to measures of association among variables and among data units. Conceptual problems in cluster analysis are discussed, along with hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering methods. The necessary elements of data analysis, statistics, cluster analysis, and computer implementation are integrated vertically to cover the complete path from raw data to a finished analysis.Comprised of 10 chapters, this book begins with an introduction to the subject o

  4. Qualitative Content Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Mayring

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describes an approach of systematic, rule guided qualitative text analysis, which tries to preserve some methodological strengths of quantitative content analysis and widen them to a concept of qualitative procedure. First the development of content analysis is delineated and the basic principles are explained (units of analysis, step models, working with categories, validity and reliability. Then the central procedures of qualitative content analysis, inductive development of categories and deductive application of categories, are worked out. The possibilities of computer programs in supporting those qualitative steps of analysis are shown and the possibilities and limits of the approach are discussed. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0002204

  5. Operational Modal Analysis Tutorial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brincker, Rune; Andersen, Palle

    analysis in an easier way and in many cases more effectively than traditional modal analysis methods. It can be applied for modal testing and analysis on a wide range of structures and not only for problems generally investigated using traditional modal analysis, but also for those requiring load......In this paper the basic principles in operational modal testing and analysis are presented and discussed. A brief review of the techniques for operational modal testing and identification is presented, and it is argued, that there is now a wide range of techniques for effective identification...... estimation, vibration level estimation and fatigue analysis....

  6. Circuit analysis for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Santiago, John

    2013-01-01

    Circuits overloaded from electric circuit analysis? Many universities require that students pursuing a degree in electrical or computer engineering take an Electric Circuit Analysis course to determine who will ""make the cut"" and continue in the degree program. Circuit Analysis For Dummies will help these students to better understand electric circuit analysis by presenting the information in an effective and straightforward manner. Circuit Analysis For Dummies gives you clear-cut information about the topics covered in an electric circuit analysis courses to help

  7. Buildings Sector Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J.; Nicholls, Andrew K.; McDonald, Sean C.; Hollomon, Jonathan B.

    2005-08-01

    A joint NREL, ORNL, and PNNL team conducted market analysis to help inform DOE/EERE's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program planning and management decisions. This chapter presents the results of the market analysis for the Buildings sector.

  8. Geologic spatial analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thiessen, R.L.; Eliason, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This report describes the development of geologic spatial analysis research which focuses on conducting comprehensive three-dimensional analysis of regions using geologic data sets that can be referenced by latitude, longitude, and elevation/depth. (CBS)

  9. Mathematical and statistical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houston, A. Glen

    1988-01-01

    The goal of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS is to research, develop, and evaluate mathematical and statistical techniques for aerospace technology applications. Specific research areas of interest include modeling, simulation, experiment design, reliability assessment, and numerical analysis.

  10. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  11. Introductory numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pettofrezzo, Anthony J

    2006-01-01

    Written for undergraduates who require a familiarity with the principles behind numerical analysis, this classical treatment encompasses finite differences, least squares theory, and harmonic analysis. Over 70 examples and 280 exercises. 1967 edition.

  12. Discourse analysis and Foucault's

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jansen I.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Discourse analysis is a method with up to now was less recognized in nursing science, althoughmore recently nursing scientists are discovering it for their purposes. However, several authors have criticized thatdiscourse analysis is often misinterpreted because of a lack of understanding of its theoretical backgrounds. In thisarticle, I reconstruct Foucault’s writings in his “Archaeology of Knowledge” to provide a theoretical base for futurearchaeological discourse analysis, which can be categorized as a socio-linguistic discourse analysis.

  13. Slice hyperholomorphic Schur analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Alpay, Daniel; Sabadini, Irene

    2016-01-01

    This book defines and examines the counterpart of Schur functions and Schur analysis in the slice hyperholomorphic setting. It is organized into three parts: the first introduces readers to classical Schur analysis, while the second offers background material on quaternions, slice hyperholomorphic functions, and quaternionic functional analysis. The third part represents the core of the book and explores quaternionic Schur analysis and its various applications. The book includes previously unpublished results and provides the basis for new directions of research.

  14. NASA Hazard Analysis Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews The NASA Hazard Analysis process. The contents include: 1) Significant Incidents and Close Calls in Human Spaceflight; 2) Subsystem Safety Engineering Through the Project Life Cycle; 3) The Risk Informed Design Process; 4) Types of NASA Hazard Analysis; 5) Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA); 6) Hazard Analysis Process; 7) Identify Hazardous Conditions; 8) Consider All Interfaces; 9) Work a Preliminary Hazard List; 10) NASA Generic Hazards List; and 11) Final Thoughts

  15. Applied longitudinal analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Ware, James H

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition "". . . [this book] should be on the shelf of everyone interested in . . . longitudinal data analysis.""-Journal of the American Statistical Association   Features newly developed topics and applications of the analysis of longitudinal data Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition presents modern methods for analyzing data from longitudinal studies and now features the latest state-of-the-art techniques. The book emphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of methods for the analysis of diverse types of lo

  16. Regression analysis by example

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Samprit

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded

  17. Computational movement analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Laube, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    This SpringerBrief discusses the characteristics of spatiotemporal movement data, including uncertainty and scale. It investigates three core aspects of Computational Movement Analysis: Conceptual modeling of movement and movement spaces, spatiotemporal analysis methods aiming at a better understanding of movement processes (with a focus on data mining for movement patterns), and using decentralized spatial computing methods in movement analysis. The author presents Computational Movement Analysis as an interdisciplinary umbrella for analyzing movement processes with methods from a range of fi

  18. Biological sequence analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durbin, Richard; Eddy, Sean; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    This book provides an up-to-date and tutorial-level overview of sequence analysis methods, with particular emphasis on probabilistic modelling. Discussed methods include pairwise alignment, hidden Markov models, multiple alignment, profile searches, RNA secondary structure analysis, and phylogene......This book provides an up-to-date and tutorial-level overview of sequence analysis methods, with particular emphasis on probabilistic modelling. Discussed methods include pairwise alignment, hidden Markov models, multiple alignment, profile searches, RNA secondary structure analysis...

  19. Iraqi Population Displacement Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    CENTER FOR ARMY ANALYSIS 6001 GOETHALS ROAD FORT BELVOIR, VA 22060-5230 CAA-2015098 IRAQI POPULATION DISPLACEMENT ANALYSIS NOVEMBER 2016...designated by other official documentation. Comments or suggestions should be addressed to: Director Center for Army Analysis ATTN: CSCA-OA...CONTRACT NUMBER Iraqi Population Displacement Analysis PDMC 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER Ms

  20. Endometrial carcinoma: stage I. A retrospective analysis of 262 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Palo, G; Kenda, R; Andreola, S; Luciani, L; Musumeci, R; Rilke, F

    1982-08-01

    From 1969 to 1977, 420 patients with endometrial carcinoma were observed and treated at the National Tumor Institute of Milan. Total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy were performed in 351. After careful clinical and pathologic review, 262 patients were classified as having stage I disease. Further treatment included post-operative radium therapy to the vaginal vault. There were 247 cases with adenocarcinoma, 10 with adenoacanthoma, and 5 with adenosquamous or clear cell carcinoma. Of 257 cases with adenocarcinoma or adenoacanthoma, 63 were grade 1, 161 grade 2, and 33 grade 3. Of the total series, only 41 cases had disease limited to the mucosal surface. The 5-year actuarial survival was 91.4% and the recurrence-free survival was 93.4%. The case material was evaluated according to the risk factors, and results were 1) premenopausal patients had a better prognosis (100% recurrence-free survival versus 92.8% for postmenopausal women, P = .003); 2) length of the uterine cavity was not a significant prognostic factor; 3) myometrial invasion alone was not prognostic but correlated with grade of tumor; 4) the grade of the tumor was an important determinant of recurrence (grade 1 98% recurrence-free survival, grade 2 95%, grade 3 79%). With the described therapy, vaginal recurrences were absent. The recurrences were distant in 20% and local with or without distant metastases in 80%.

  1. Practical data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cuesta, Hector

    2013-01-01

    Each chapter of the book quickly introduces a key 'theme' of Data Analysis, before immersing you in the practical aspects of each theme. You'll learn quickly how to perform all aspects of Data Analysis.Practical Data Analysis is a book ideal for home and small business users who want to slice & dice the data they have on hand with minimum hassle.

  2. Text analysis and computers

    OpenAIRE

    1995-01-01

    Content: Erhard Mergenthaler: Computer-assisted content analysis (3-32); Udo Kelle: Computer-aided qualitative data analysis: an overview (33-63); Christian Mair: Machine-readable text corpora and the linguistic description of danguages (64-75); Jürgen Krause: Principles of content analysis for information retrieval systems (76-99); Conference Abstracts (100-131).

  3. Principal component analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bro, R.; Smilde, A.K.

    2014-01-01

    Principal component analysis is one of the most important and powerful methods in chemometrics as well as in a wealth of other areas. This paper provides a description of how to understand, use, and interpret principal component analysis. The paper focuses on the use of principal component analysis

  4. Data analysis for chemistry

    CERN Document Server

    Hibbert, DBrynn

    2005-01-01

    Based on D Brynn Hibbert''s lectures on data analysis to undergraduates and graduate students, this book covers topics including measurements, means and confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, analysis of variance, and calibration models. It is meant as an entry level book targeted at learning and teaching undergraduate data analysis.

  5. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  6. Strategic Analysis Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

    2008-01-01

    NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

  7. Analysis in usability evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Følstad, Asbjørn; Lai-Chong Law, Effie; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2010-01-01

    While the planning and implementation of usability evaluations are well described in the literature, the analysis of the evaluation data is not. We present interviews with 11 usability professionals on how they conduct analysis, describing the resources, collaboration, creation of recommendations......, and prioritization involved. The interviews indicate a lack of structure in the analysis process and suggest activities, such as generating recommendations, that are unsupported by existing methods. We discuss how to better support analysis, and propose four themes for future research on analysis in usability...

  8. Foundations of mathematical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsonbaugh, Richard

    2010-01-01

    This classroom-tested volume offers a definitive look at modern analysis, with views of applications to statistics, numerical analysis, Fourier series, differential equations, mathematical analysis, and functional analysis. Upper-level undergraduate students with a background in calculus will benefit from its teachings, along with beginning graduate students seeking a firm grounding in modern analysis. A self-contained text, it presents the necessary background on the limit concept, and the first seven chapters could constitute a one-semester introduction to limits. Subsequent chapters discuss

  9. Mathematical analysis fundamentals

    CERN Document Server

    Bashirov, Agamirza

    2014-01-01

    The author's goal is a rigorous presentation of the fundamentals of analysis, starting from elementary level and moving to the advanced coursework. The curriculum of all mathematics (pure or applied) and physics programs include a compulsory course in mathematical analysis. This book will serve as can serve a main textbook of such (one semester) courses. The book can also serve as additional reading for such courses as real analysis, functional analysis, harmonic analysis etc. For non-math major students requiring math beyond calculus, this is a more friendly approach than many math-centric o

  10. http Log Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøving, Kristian Billeskov; Simonsen, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    This article documents how log analysis can inform qualitative studies concerning the usage of web-based information systems (WIS). No prior research has used http log files as data to study collaboration between multiple users in organisational settings. We investigate how to perform http log...... analysis; what http log analysis says about the nature of collaborative WIS use; and how results from http log analysis may support other data collection methods such as surveys, interviews, and observation. The analysis of log files initially lends itself to research designs, which serve to test...... hypotheses using a quantitative methodology. We show that http log analysis can also be valuable in qualitative research such as case studies. The results from http log analysis can be triangulated with other data sources and for example serve as a means of supporting the interpretation of interview data...

  11. Multivariate analysis with LISREL

    CERN Document Server

    Jöreskog, Karl G; Y Wallentin, Fan

    2016-01-01

    This book traces the theory and methodology of multivariate statistical analysis and shows how it can be conducted in practice using the LISREL computer program. It presents not only the typical uses of LISREL, such as confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation models, but also several other multivariate analysis topics, including regression (univariate, multivariate, censored, logistic, and probit), generalized linear models, multilevel analysis, and principal component analysis. It provides numerous examples from several disciplines and discusses and interprets the results, illustrated with sections of output from the LISREL program, in the context of the example. The book is intended for masters and PhD students and researchers in the social, behavioral, economic and many other sciences who require a basic understanding of multivariate statistical theory and methods for their analysis of multivariate data. It can also be used as a textbook on various topics of multivariate statistical analysis.

  12. Visual physics analysis VISPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Actis, Oxana; Brodski, Michael; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Hinzmann, Andreas; Mueller, Gero; Muenzer, Thomas; Plum, Matthias; Steggemann, Jan; Winchen, Tobias; Klimkovich, Tatsiana, E-mail: tatsiana.klimkovich@physik.rwth-aachen.d [Physics Institute 3a, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen (Germany)

    2010-04-01

    VISPA is a development environment for high energy physics analyses which enables physicists to combine graphical and textual work. A physics analysis cycle consists of prototyping, performing, and verifying the analysis. The main feature of VISPA is a multipurpose window for visual steering of analysis steps, creation of analysis templates, and browsing physics event data at different steps of an analysis. VISPA follows an experiment-independent approach and incorporates various tools for steering and controlling required in a typical analysis. Connection to different frameworks of high energy physics experiments is achieved by using different types of interfaces. We present the look-and-feel for an example physics analysis at the LHC and explain the underlying software concepts of VISPA.

  13. http Log Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøving, Kristian Billeskov; Simonsen, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    This article documents how log analysis can inform qualitative studies concerning the usage of web-based information systems (WIS). No prior research has used http log files as data to study collaboration between multiple users in organisational settings. We investigate how to perform http log...... analysis; what http log analysis says about the nature of collaborative WIS use; and how results from http log analysis may support other data collection methods such as surveys, interviews, and observation. The analysis of log files initially lends itself to research designs, which serve to test...... hypotheses using a quantitative methodology. We show that http log analysis can also be valuable in qualitative research such as case studies. The results from http log analysis can be triangulated with other data sources and for example serve as a means of supporting the interpretation of interview data...

  14. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  15. NASA trend analysis procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  16. Analysis of Precision of Activation Analysis Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Nørgaard, K.

    1973-01-01

    The precision of an activation-analysis method prescribes the estimation of the precision of a single analytical result. The adequacy of these estimates to account for the observed variation between duplicate results from the analysis of different samples and materials, is tested by the statistic T......, which is shown to be approximated by a χ2 distribution. Application of this test to the results of determinations of manganese in human serum by a method of established precision, led to the detection of airborne pollution of the serum during the sampling process. The subsequent improvement in sampling...... conditions was shown to give not only increased precision, but also improved accuracy of the results....

  17. Social Set Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Hussain, Abid

    2016-01-01

    Current analytical approaches in computational social science can be characterized by four dominant paradigms: text analysis (information extraction and classification), social network analysis (graph theory), social complexity analysis (complex systems science), and social simulations (cellular...... automata and agent-based modeling). However, when it comes to organizational and societal units of analysis, there exists no approach to conceptualize, model, analyze, explain, and predict social media interactions as individuals' associations with ideas, values, identities, and so on. To address...... this limitation, based on the sociology of associations and the mathematics of set theory, this paper presents a new approach to big data analytics called social set analysis. Social set analysis consists of a generative framework for the philosophies of computational social science, theory of social data...

  18. Fundamentals of functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Farenick, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a unique path for graduate or advanced undergraduate students to begin studying the rich subject of functional analysis with fewer prerequisites than is normally required. The text begins with a self-contained and highly efficient introduction to topology and measure theory, which focuses on the essential notions required for the study of functional analysis, and which are often buried within full-length overviews of the subjects. This is particularly useful for those in applied mathematics, engineering, or physics who need to have a firm grasp of functional analysis, but not necessarily some of the more abstruse aspects of topology and measure theory normally encountered. The reader is assumed to only have knowledge of basic real analysis, complex analysis, and algebra. The latter part of the text provides an outstanding treatment of Banach space theory and operator theory, covering topics not usually found together in other books on functional analysis. Written in a clear, concise manner,...

  19. Problems in real analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rǎdulescu, Teodora-Liliana T.; Andreescu, Titu; Rǎdulescu, Vicenţiu

    2015-01-01

    This book ontains a collection of challenging problems in elementary mathematical analysis, uses competition-inspired problems as a platform for training typical inventive skills, develops basic valuable techniques for solving problems in mathematical analysis on the real axis, assumes only a basic knowledge of the topic but opens the path to competitive research in the field, includes interesting and valuable historical accounts of ideas and methods in analysis, presents a connection between...

  20. Canonical Information Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Jacob Schack; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2015-01-01

    Canonical correlation analysis is an established multivariate statistical method in which correlation between linear combinations of multivariate sets of variables is maximized. In canonical information analysis introduced here, linear correlation as a measure of association between variables is ...... airborne data. The simulation study shows that canonical information analysis is as accurate as and much faster than algorithms presented in previous work, especially for large sample sizes. URL: http://www.imm.dtu.dk/pubdb/p.php?6270...

  1. Stochastic Analysis 2010

    CERN Document Server

    Crisan, Dan

    2011-01-01

    "Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

  2. LULU analysis program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crawford, H.J.; Lindstrom, P.J.

    1983-06-01

    Our analysis program LULU has proven very useful in all stages of experiment analysis, from prerun detector debugging through final data reduction. It has solved our problem of having arbitrary word length events and is easy enough to use that many separate experimenters are now analyzing with LULU. The ability to use the same software for all stages of experiment analysis greatly eases the programming burden. We may even get around to making the graphics elegant someday.

  3. Social network analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mathias, Carlos Leonardo Kelmer

    2014-01-01

    In general, the paper develops a historiographical debate about the methodology of social network analysis. More than responding questions using such methodology, this article tries to introduce the historian to the founder bibliography of social network analysis. Since the publication of the famous article by John Barnes in 1954, sociologists linked to sociometric studies have usually employed the social network analysis in their studies. On the other hand, this methodology is not widespread...

  4. Mastering Clojure data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rochester, Eric

    2014-01-01

    This book consists of a practical, example-oriented approach that aims to help you learn how to use Clojure for data analysis quickly and efficiently.This book is great for those who have experience with Clojure and who need to use it to perform data analysis. This book will also be hugely beneficial for readers with basic experience in data analysis and statistics.

  5. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  6. Circuit analysis with Multisim

    CERN Document Server

    Baez-Lopez, David

    2011-01-01

    This book is concerned with circuit simulation using National Instruments Multisim. It focuses on the use and comprehension of the working techniques for electrical and electronic circuit simulation. The first chapters are devoted to basic circuit analysis.It starts by describing in detail how to perform a DC analysis using only resistors and independent and controlled sources. Then, it introduces capacitors and inductors to make a transient analysis. In the case of transient analysis, it is possible to have an initial condition either in the capacitor voltage or in the inductor current, or bo

  7. Thermogravimetric Analysis Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — At NETL’s Thermogravimetric Analysis Laboratory in Morgantown, WV, researchers study how chemical looping combustion (CLC) can be applied to fossil energy systems....

  8. Finite element analysis

    CERN Document Server

    2010-01-01

    Finite element analysis is an engineering method for the numerical analysis of complex structures. This book provides a bird's eye view on this very broad matter through 27 original and innovative research studies exhibiting various investigation directions. Through its chapters the reader will have access to works related to Biomedical Engineering, Materials Engineering, Process Analysis and Civil Engineering. The text is addressed not only to researchers, but also to professional engineers, engineering lecturers and students seeking to gain a better understanding of where Finite Element Analysis stands today.

  9. Chemical Analysis Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — FUNCTION: Uses state-of-the-art instrumentation for qualitative and quantitative analysis of organic and inorganic compounds, and biomolecules from gas, liquid, and...

  10. Geospatial Data Analysis Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Geospatial application development, location-based services, spatial modeling, and spatial analysis are examples of the many research applications that this facility...

  11. Space Weather Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Space Weather Analysis archives are model output of ionospheric, thermospheric and magnetospheric particle populations, energies and electrodynamics

  12. Chemical Security Analysis Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — In 2006, by Presidential Directive, DHS established the Chemical Security Analysis Center (CSAC) to identify and assess chemical threats and vulnerabilities in the...

  13. Textile Technology Analysis Lab

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Textile Analysis Labis built for evaluating and characterizing the physical properties of an array of textile materials, but specifically those used in aircrew...

  14. Machine Fault Signature Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pratesh Jayaswal

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present recent developments in the field of machine fault signature analysis with particular regard to vibration analysis. The different types of faults that can be identified from the vibration signature analysis are, for example, gear fault, rolling contact bearing fault, journal bearing fault, flexible coupling faults, and electrical machine fault. It is not the intention of the authors to attempt to provide a detailed coverage of all the faults while detailed consideration is given to the subject of the rolling element bearing fault signature analysis.

  15. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  16. International Market Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull

    2009-01-01

    The review presents the book International Market Analysis: Theories and Methods, written by John Kuiada, professor at Centre of International Business, Department of Business Studies, Aalborg University. The book is refreshingly new in its way of looking at a classical problem. It looks at market...... analysis from the point of vie of ways of thinking about markets. Furthermore, the book includes the concept of learning in the analysis of markets og how the way we understand business reality influneces our choice of methodology for market analysis....

  17. Cancellation of Nongroup Health Insurance Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-19

    1302 Essential Health Benefits (X) √ §1302 Minimum Actuarial Value (X) √ §1302 Maximum Out-of-Pocket Limits (X) √ Source: CRS analysis of ACA...also not possible to develop reliable estimates on the number of individuals who renewed policies through “early renewal” or who will be offered...must provide at least 30 days’ prior notice to the individual before coverage may be rescinded. Source: CRS analysis of relevant federal law and

  18. Fiscal Year 2014: Military Retirement Fund Audited Financial Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-07

    PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 i Table of Contents Management’s Discussion and Analysis ...Management’s Discussion and Analysis Summary of the Military Retirement System For the Years Ended September 30, 2014 and 2013 REPORTING ENTITY The...funds to finance, on an actuarial basis, the liabilities of DoD under military retirement and survivor benefit programs. Within DoD, the

  19. Legislative Actions to Repeal, Defund, or Delay the Affordable Care Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-22

    Office (GAO) study of the costs and processes of ACA implementation, and a Medicare actuarial analysis of the impact of the ACA’s private insurance...86, available at http://www.gao.gov. 3 P.L. 113-46, 127 Stat. 558. For more analysis of the various legal and procedural considerations arising from...report is updated periodically to reflect legislative and other developments . Background on the Affordable Care Act4 Among its many provisions, the ACA

  20. 26 CFR 601.502 - Recognized representative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... 230; (4) Enrolled actuary. Any individual who is enrolled as an actuary by and is in active status with the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries pursuant to 29 U.S.C. 1242. (5) Other individuals... actuaries, and others); (3) I am authorized to represent the taxpayer(s) identified in the power of...

  1. 20 CFR 901.13 - Eligibility for enrollment of individuals applying for enrollment on or after January 1, 1976.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY ACT OF 1974 Enrollment of Actuaries § 901.13 Eligibility for enrollment... applying on or after January 1, 1976, to be an enrolled actuary, must fulfill the experience requirement...

  2. 20 CFR 901.34 - Conferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... § 901.34 Conferences. (a) In general. The Executive Director may confer with an enrolled actuary... of the actuary or the Executive Director. (b) Voluntary suspension or termination of enrollment....

  3. 78 FR 57174 - Advisory Committee Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-17

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries, 703-414- 2173. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is...

  4. 20 CFR 901.45 - Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... actuaries. However, the Administrative Law Judge shall exclude evidence which is irrelevant, immaterial, or... of Actuaries or the Office of the Executive Director of the Joint Board for the Enrollment...

  5. 78 FR 34671 - Invitation for Membership on Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-10

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Invitation for Membership on Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries (Joint... Director, Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries; Return Preparer Office SE:RPO; Internal...

  6. 75 FR 74021 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-30

    ... Actuaries (hereafter referred to as the ``Board''). The Board is a non-discretionary Federal advisory... professional actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. Except for those member of the Board who... Health Care Board of Actuaries' membership about the Board's mission and functions. Written...

  7. 20 CFR 901.70 - Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries a roster of all persons enrolled to perform actuarial... applicable disclosure and privacy statutes. (b) Disciplinary procedures. A request by an enrolled...

  8. 76 FR 56797 - Meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-14

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Executive Director of the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES:...

  9. Fundamentals of Functional Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kutateladze, S S; Slovák, Jan

    2001-01-01

    A concise guide to basic sections of modern functional analysis. Included are such topics as the principles of Banach and Hilbert spaces, the theory of multinormed and uniform spaces, the Riesz-Dunford holomorphic functional calculus, the Fredholm index theory, convex analysis and duality theory for locally convex spaces with applications to the Schwartz spaces of distributions and Radon measures.

  10. Time series analysis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2013-01-01

    Time series analysis can be used to quantitatively monitor, describe, explain, and predict road safety developments. Time series analysis techniques offer the possibility of quantitatively modelling road safety developments in such a way that the dependencies between the observations of time series

  11. Interactive Controls Analysis (INCA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Frank H.

    1989-01-01

    Version 3.12 of INCA provides user-friendly environment for design and analysis of linear control systems. System configuration and parameters easily adjusted, enabling INCA user to create compensation networks and perform sensitivity analysis in convenient manner. Full complement of graphical routines makes output easy to understand. Written in Pascal and FORTRAN.

  12. Application of SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casebeer, A

    SWOT analysis is an effective and simple planning technique which addresses one aspect of many strategic planning processes. Given the complex nature of modern health care systems, the ability to use this type of technique can enable health professionals to participate more fully in the analysis and implementation of health care improvement.

  13. Laboratory analysis of stardust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinner, Ernst

    2013-02-01

    Tiny dust grains extracted from primitive meteorites are identified to have originated in the atmospheres of stars on the basis of their anomalous isotopic compositions. Although isotopic analysis with the ion microprobe plays a major role in the laboratory analysis of these stardust grains, many other microanalytical techniques are applied to extract the maximum amount of information.

  14. Marketing research cluster analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Nebojša

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available One area of applications of cluster analysis in marketing is identification of groups of cities and towns with similar demographic profiles. This paper considers main aspects of cluster analysis by an example of clustering 12 cities with the use of Minitab software.

  15. Interactive Controls Analysis (INCA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Frank H.

    1989-01-01

    Version 3.12 of INCA provides user-friendly environment for design and analysis of linear control systems. System configuration and parameters easily adjusted, enabling INCA user to create compensation networks and perform sensitivity analysis in convenient manner. Full complement of graphical routines makes output easy to understand. Written in Pascal and FORTRAN.

  16. Economic Analysis of Law

    OpenAIRE

    Louis Kaplow; Steven Shavell

    2005-01-01

    This entry for the forthcoming The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (Second Edition) surveys the economic analysis of five primary fields of law: property law; liability for accidents; contract law; litigation; and public enforcement and criminal law. It also briefly considers some criticisms of the economic analysis of law.

  17. Numerical Limit Analysis:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damkilde, Lars

    2007-01-01

    Limit State analysis has a long history and many prominent researchers have contributed. The theoretical foundation is based on the upper- and lower-bound theorems which give a very comprehensive and elegant formulation on complicated physical problems. In the pre-computer age Limit State analysis...

  18. Statistical data analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahn, A.A.

    1994-11-01

    The complexity of instrumentation sometimes requires data analysis to be done before the result is presented to the control room. This tutorial reviews some of the theoretical assumptions underlying the more popular forms of data analysis and presents simple examples to illuminate the advantages and hazards of different techniques.

  19. NOTATIONAL ANALYSIS OF SPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian M. Franks

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This book addresses and appropriately explains the notational analysis of technique, tactics, individual athlete/team exercise and work-rate in sport. The book offers guidance in: developing a system, analyzes of data, effective coaching using notational performance analysis and modeling sport behaviors. It updates and improves the 1997 edition

  20. Electric field analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chakravorti, Sivaji

    2015-01-01

    This book prepares newcomers to dive into the realm of electric field analysis. The book details why one should perform electric field analysis and what are its practical implications. It emphasizes both the fundamentals and modern computational methods of electric machines. The book covers practical applications of the numerical methods in high voltage equipment, including transmission lines, power transformers, cables, and gas insulated systems.

  1. Topological Data Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Topological Data Analysis (TDA) can broadly be described as a collection of data analysis methods that find structure in data. This includes: clustering, manifold estimation, nonlinear dimension reduction, mode estimation, ridge estimation and persistent homology. This paper reviews some of these methods.

  2. From analysis to surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bemman, Brian; Meredith, David

    2014-01-01

    of Sheer Pluck (1984), a twelve-tone composition for guitar by Milton Babbitt (1916–2011). This analysis focuses on the all-partition array structure on which the piece is based. Having pre- sented this analysis, we formalize some constraints on the structure of the piece and explore some computational...

  3. Structured Analysis - IDEF0

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    that require a modelling technique for the analysis, development, re-engineering, integration, or acquisition of information systems; and incorporate a systems or enterprise modelling technique into a business process analysis or software engineering methodology.This note is a summary of the Standard...

  4. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Northern blotting analysis is a classical method for analysis of the size and steady-state level of a specific RNA in a complex sample. In short, the RNA is size-fractionated by gel electrophoresis and transferred by blotting onto a membrane to which the RNA is covalently bound. Then, the membran...

  5. Educational Cost Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Donald L.

    Traditional approaches to the cost analysis of educational programs involve examining annual budgets. Such approaches do not properly consider the cost of either new capital expenditures or the current value of previously purchased items. This paper presents the methodology for a new approach to educational cost analysis that identifies the actual…

  6. Spectroscopic analysis and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tate; , James D.; Reed, Christopher J.; Domke, Christopher H.; Le, Linh; Seasholtz, Mary Beth; Weber, Andy; Lipp, Charles

    2017-04-18

    Apparatus for spectroscopic analysis which includes a tunable diode laser spectrometer having a digital output signal and a digital computer for receiving the digital output signal from the spectrometer, the digital computer programmed to process the digital output signal using a multivariate regression algorithm. In addition, a spectroscopic method of analysis using such apparatus. Finally, a method for controlling an ethylene cracker hydrogenator.

  7. Proximate Analysis of Coal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donahue, Craig J.; Rais, Elizabeth A.

    2009-01-01

    This lab experiment illustrates the use of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) to perform proximate analysis on a series of coal samples of different rank. Peat and coke are also examined. A total of four exercises are described. These are dry exercises as students interpret previously recorded scans. The weight percent moisture, volatile matter,…

  8. Deconstructing Statistical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Using a very complex statistical analysis and research method for the sake of enhancing the prestige of an article or making a new product or service legitimate needs to be monitored and questioned for accuracy. 1) The more complicated the statistical analysis, and research the fewer the number of learned readers can understand it. This adds a…

  9. Zen and Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Zen's challenge for behavior analysis is to explain a repertoire that renders analysis itself meaningless--a result following not from scientific or philosophical arguments but rather from a unique verbal history generated by Zen's methods. Untying Zen's verbal knots suggests how meditation's and koans' effects on verbal behavior contribute to…

  10. Biological sequence analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durbin, Richard; Eddy, Sean; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    This book provides an up-to-date and tutorial-level overview of sequence analysis methods, with particular emphasis on probabilistic modelling. Discussed methods include pairwise alignment, hidden Markov models, multiple alignment, profile searches, RNA secondary structure analysis, and phylogene...

  11. Numerical Limit Analysis:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damkilde, Lars

    2007-01-01

    Limit State analysis has a long history and many prominent researchers have contributed. The theoretical foundation is based on the upper- and lower-bound theorems which give a very comprehensive and elegant formulation on complicated physical problems. In the pre-computer age Limit State analysis...... also enabled engineers to solve practical problems within reinforced concrete, steel structures and geotechnics....

  12. Stochastic Flutter Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoosel, C.V.; Gutiérrez, M.A.; Hulshoff, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    The field of fluid-structure interaction is combined with the field of stochastics to perform a stochastic flutter analysis. Various methods to directly incorporate the effects of uncertainties in the flutter analysis are investigated. The panel problem with a supersonic fluid flowing over it is con

  13. Structural analysis for Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh; Blanke, M.

    2001-01-01

    Aiming at design of algorithms for fault diagnosis, structural analysis of systems offers concise yet easy overall analysis. Graph-based matching, which is the essential technique to obtain redundant information for diagnosis, is re-considered in this paper. Matching is re-formulated as a problem...

  14. Structural analysis for diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh; Blanke, M.

    2002-01-01

    Aiming at design of algorithms for fault diagnosis, structural analysis of systems offers concise yet easy overall analysis. Graph-based matching, which is the essential tech-nique to obtain redundant information for diagnosis, is reconsidered in this paper. Matching is reformulated as a problem...

  15. Statistical methods with applications to demography and life insurance

    CERN Document Server

    Khmaladze, Estáte V

    2013-01-01

    Suitable for statisticians, mathematicians, actuaries, and students interested in the problems of insurance and analysis of lifetimes, Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance presents contemporary statistical techniques for analyzing life distributions and life insurance problems. It not only contains traditional material but also incorporates new problems and techniques not discussed in existing actuarial literature. The book mainly focuses on the analysis of an individual life and describes statistical methods based on empirical and related processes. Coverage ranges from analyzing the tails of distributions of lifetimes to modeling population dynamics with migrations. To help readers understand the technical points, the text covers topics such as the Stieltjes, Wiener, and Itô integrals. It also introduces other themes of interest in demography, including mixtures of distributions, analysis of longevity and extreme value theory, and the age structure of a population. In addi...

  16. IAC - INTEGRATED ANALYSIS CAPABILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisch, H. P.

    1994-01-01

    The objective of the Integrated Analysis Capability (IAC) system is to provide a highly effective, interactive analysis tool for the integrated design of large structures. With the goal of supporting the unique needs of engineering analysis groups concerned with interdisciplinary problems, IAC was developed to interface programs from the fields of structures, thermodynamics, controls, and system dynamics with an executive system and database to yield a highly efficient multi-disciplinary system. Special attention is given to user requirements such as data handling and on-line assistance with operational features, and the ability to add new modules of the user's choice at a future date. IAC contains an executive system, a data base, general utilities, interfaces to various engineering programs, and a framework for building interfaces to other programs. IAC has shown itself to be effective in automatic data transfer among analysis programs. IAC 2.5, designed to be compatible as far as possible with Level 1.5, contains a major upgrade in executive and database management system capabilities, and includes interfaces to enable thermal, structures, optics, and control interaction dynamics analysis. The IAC system architecture is modular in design. 1) The executive module contains an input command processor, an extensive data management system, and driver code to execute the application modules. 2) Technical modules provide standalone computational capability as well as support for various solution paths or coupled analyses. 3) Graphics and model generation interfaces are supplied for building and viewing models. Advanced graphics capabilities are provided within particular analysis modules such as INCA and NASTRAN. 4) Interface modules provide for the required data flow between IAC and other modules. 5) User modules can be arbitrary executable programs or JCL procedures with no pre-defined relationship to IAC. 6) Special purpose modules are included, such as MIMIC (Model

  17. Functional data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ramsay, J O

    1997-01-01

    Scientists today collect samples of curves and other functional observations. This monograph presents many ideas and techniques for such data. Included are expressions in the functional domain of such classics as linear regression, principal components analysis, linear modelling, and canonical correlation analysis, as well as specifically functional techniques such as curve registration and principal differential analysis. Data arising in real applications are used throughout for both motivation and illustration, showing how functional approaches allow us to see new things, especially by exploiting the smoothness of the processes generating the data. The data sets exemplify the wide scope of functional data analysis; they are drwan from growth analysis, meterology, biomechanics, equine science, economics, and medicine. The book presents novel statistical technology while keeping the mathematical level widely accessible. It is designed to appeal to students, to applied data analysts, and to experienced researc...

  18. Gait analysis: clinical facts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Richard; Esquenazi, Alberto; Benedetti, Maria G; Desloovere, Kaat

    2016-08-01

    Gait analysis is a well-established tool for the quantitative assessment of gait disturbances providing functional diagnosis, assessment for treatment planning, and monitoring of disease progress. There is a large volume of literature on the research use of gait analysis, but evidence on its clinical routine use supports a favorable cost-benefit ratio in a limited number of conditions. Initially gait analysis was introduced to clinical practice to improve the management of children with cerebral palsy. However, there is good evidence to extend its use to patients with various upper motor neuron diseases, and to lower limb amputation. Thereby, the methodology for properly conducting and interpreting the exam is of paramount relevance. Appropriateness of gait analysis prescription and reliability of data obtained are required in the clinical environment. This paper provides an overview on guidelines for managing a clinical gait analysis service and on the principal clinical domains of its application: cerebral palsy, stroke, traumatic brain injury and lower limb amputation.

  19. Robust Sparse Analysis Regularization

    CERN Document Server

    Vaiter, Samuel; Dossal, Charles; Fadili, Jalal

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the properties of L1-analysis regularization for the resolution of linear inverse problems. Most previous works consider sparse synthesis priors where the sparsity is measured as the L1 norm of the coefficients that synthesize the signal in a given dictionary. In contrast, the more general analysis regularization minimizes the L1 norm of the correlations between the signal and the atoms in the dictionary. The corresponding variational problem includes several well-known regularizations such as the discrete total variation and the fused lasso. We first prove that a solution of analysis regularization is a piecewise affine function of the observations. Similarly, it is a piecewise affine function of the regularization parameter. This allows us to compute the degrees of freedom associated to sparse analysis estimators. Another contribution gives a sufficient condition to ensure that a signal is the unique solution of the analysis regularization when there is no noise in the observations. The s...

  20. NMA Analysis Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kierulf, Halfdan Pascal; Andersen, Per Helge

    2013-01-01

    The Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA) has during the last few years had a close cooperation with Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) in the analysis of space geodetic data using the GEOSAT software. In 2012 NMA has taken over the full responsibility for the GEOSAT software. This implies that FFI stopped being an IVS Associate Analysis Center in 2012. NMA has been an IVS Associate Analysis Center since 28 October 2010. NMA's contributions to the IVS as an Analysis Centers focus primarily on routine production of session-by-session unconstrained and consistent normal equations by GEOSAT as input to the IVS combined solution. After the recent improvements, we expect that VLBI results produced with GEOSAT will be consistent with results from the other VLBI Analysis Centers to a satisfactory level.