Sample records for actuarial analysis

  1. Actuarial contributions to life table analysis.

    Lew, E A


    The correct principles for the construction of life tables and more particularly select life tables were developed by actuaries in England in the first half of the 19th century. Actuaries explored the phenomenon of selection not only between the insured and annuitants but also in the general population, distinguishing among initial temporary selection, antiselection, and class selection. The conclusion was reached early that no such thing as an unselected population exists. Group life insurance experience among the actively employed has been shown to provide a more appropriate standard of expected mortality than general population death rates in studies of medical impairments and occupational hazards at ages under 65 years. Mortality rates derived from the Cancer Prevention Study can serve as a useful standard of expected mortality when the objective is determination of excess mortality compared with ostensibly healthy persons at ages 65 years and older.

  2. Actuarial and actual analysis of surgical results: empirical validation.

    Grunkemeier, G L; Anderson, R P; Starr, A


    This report validates the use of the Kaplan-Meier (actuarial) method of computing survival curves by comparing 12-year estimates published in 1978 with current assessments. It also contrasts cumulative incidence curves, referred to as "actual" analysis in the cardiac-related literature with Kaplan-Meier curves for thromboembolism and demonstrates that with the former estimate the percentage of events that will actually occur.

  3. Actuarial Studies

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) from time to time conducts studies on various aspects of the Medicare and Medicaid...

  4. The relationship between alcohol and traffic accidents an actuarial analysis.

    Nelker, G.


    This analysis deals with the accident chances of the excessive drinkers, moderate drinkers and non-drinkers. The Swedish motor insurance results for total abstainers are compared to the average policyholders.

  5. Actuarial Science.

    Warren, Bette


    Details are provided of a program on actuarial training developed at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Binghamton through the Department of Mathematical Sciences. An outline of its operation, including a few statistics on students in the program, is included. (MP)

  6. An analysis of possible applications of fuzzy set theory to the actuarial credibility theory

    Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Karwowski, Waldemar


    In this work, we review the basic concepts of actuarial credibility theory from the point of view of introducing applications of the fuzzy set-theoretic method. We show how the concept of actuarial credibility can be modeled through the fuzzy set membership functions and how fuzzy set methods, especially fuzzy pattern recognition, can provide an alternative tool for estimating credibility.

  7. Long-term actuarial survivorship analysis of an interspinous stabilization system.

    Sénégas, Jacques; Vital, Jean-Marc; Pointillart, Vincent; Mangione, Paolo


    In 1986, an interspinous dynamic stabilization system (the prototype of the current Wallis implant) was designed to stiffen unstable operated degenerate lumbar segments with a hard interspinous blocker to limit extension and a tension band around the spinous processes to secure the implant and limit flexion. Restoring physiological mechanical conditions to the treated level(s) while preserving some intervertebral mobility was intended to treat low-back pain related to degenerative instability without increasing stress forces in the adjacent segments. The procedure was easily reversible. If low back pain persisted or recurred, the device was removed and stability was achieved using fusion. The intermediate-term results were promising, but the long-term safety and efficacy of this dynamic interspinous stabilization device has not been previously documented. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital files of all the patients (n = 241) who had this dynamic stabilization system implanted between 1987 and 1995, contacting as many as possible to determine the actuarial survivorship of the system. In this manner, 142 of the 241 patients (58.9%) were contacted by telephone. The endpoints used for the survivorship analysis were 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal'. At 14 years follow-up, values of actuarial survivorship with 95% confidence interval were 75.9 +/- 8.3 and 81.3 +/- 6.8% for the endpoints 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal', respectively. There was no difference in survivorship of multiple-level implants with respect to single-level devices. Although the conclusions of the present study must be tempered by the 41% attrition rate, these findings support the long-term safety of this system, and possibly long-term protective action against adjacent-level degeneration by motion preservation. Outcomes at least equivalent to those of fusion were observed without the primary drawbacks of fusion.

  8. Pattern Analysis of an Actuarial Strategy for Computerized Diagnosis of Childhood Exceptionality.

    Hale, Robert L.; McDermott, Paul A.


    The Multidimensional Actuarial Classification system, which consists of routines and decision making procedures applied to weighting of standardized psychometric, observational, and interview data, was used to classify 200 children (6-16 years old) referred for psychological evaluation. Seven distinct patterns emerged, supporting the approach's…

  9. Clinical versus actuarial judgment.

    Dawes, R M; Faust, D; Meehl, P E


    Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

  10. The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

    Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick


    The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

  11. An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard


    This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...

  12. The case for an actuary.

    Renaud, Patrick N


    The author describes the role of the actuary, the need for qualified actuaries and how to find them. Qualified actuarial help, in the form of a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA), is necessary to ensure the best outcome when setting annual premium rates and realistic budgets for self-funded group benefit plans.

  13. Actually, What Is an Actuary?

    Oudshoorn, Susan; Finkelstein, Gary


    The actuarial profession is described to provide secondary school mathematics teachers insights into how actuaries use mathematics in solving real life problems. Examples are provided involving compound interest, the probability of dying, and inflation with computer modeling. (MDH)

  14. Competence in Mathematics and Academic Achievement: An Analysis of Enrollees in the Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science Program

    Wamala, Robert; Maswere, Dyson W.; Mwanga, Yeko


    This study investigates the role of prior grounding attained in mathematics in predicting the academic achievement of enrollees in Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science (BSAS). The investigation is based on administrative records of 240 BSAS enrollees at Makerere University, School of Statistics and Planning in the 2007-2009 cohorts. Students'…

  15. An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard


    This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...... equation systems. With offset in the explicit solution, we establish the conditional distribution of the future state variables which allows for exact simulation. Using exact simulation, we illustrate how simulation of the system can be improved compared to a standard Euler scheme. In order to analyze...... the effect of choosing the exact simulation scheme over the traditional Euler approximation scheme frequently applied by practitioners, we carry out a simulation study. We show that due to its recursive nature, the Euler scheme becomes computationally expensive as it requires a small step size in order...

  16. Survival Analysis and Actuarial Parameters of Sternechus subsignatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults.

    Guillermina Socías, María; Van Nieuwenhove, Guido; Murúa, María Gabriela; Willink, Eduardo; Liljesthröm, Gerardo Gustavo


    The soybean stalk weevil, Sternechus subsignatus Boheman 1836 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a very serious soybean pest in the Neotropical region. Both adults and larvae feed on soybean, causing significant yield losses. Adult survival was evaluated during three soybean growing seasons under controlled environmental conditions. A survival analysis was performed using a parametric survival fit approach in order to generate survival curves and obtain information that could help optimize integrated management strategies for this weevil pest. Sex of the weevils, crop season, fortnight in which weevils emerged, and their interaction were studied regarding their effect on adult survival. The results showed that females lived longer than males, but both genders were actually long-lived, reaching 224 and 176 d, respectively. Mean lifetime (l50) was 121.88±4.56 d for females and 89.58±2.72 d for males. Although variations were observed in adult longevities among emergence fortnights and soybean seasons, only in December and January fortnights of the 2007–2008 season and December fortnights of 2009–2010 did the statistically longest and shortest longevities occur, respectively. Survivorship data (lx) of adult females and males were fitted to the Weibull frequency distribution model. The survival curve was type I for both sexes, which indicated that mortality corresponded mostly to old individuals.

  17. Offering Lung Cancer Screening to High-Risk Medicare Beneficiaries Saves Lives and Is Cost-Effective: An Actuarial Analysis

    Pyenson, Bruce S.; Henschke, Claudia I.; Yankelevitz, David F.; Yip, Rowena; Dec, Ellynne


    Background By a wide margin, lung cancer is the most significant cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. The incidence of lung cancer increases with age, and Medicare beneficiaries are often at increased risk. Because of its demonstrated effectiveness in reducing mortality, lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging will be covered without cost-sharing starting January 1, 2015, by nongrandfathered commercial plans. Medicare is considering coverage for lung cancer screening. Objective To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per life-year saved) of LDCT lung cancer screening of the Medicare population at high risk for lung cancer. Methods Medicare costs, enrollment, and demographics were used for this study; they were derived from the 2012 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiary files and were forecast to 2014 based on CMS and US Census Bureau projections. Standard life and health actuarial techniques were used to calculate the cost and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. The cost, incidence rates, mortality rates, and other parameters chosen by the authors were taken from actual Medicare data, and the modeled screenings are consistent with Medicare processes and procedures. Results Approximately 4.9 million high-risk Medicare beneficiaries would meet criteria for lung cancer screening in 2014. Without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average life expectancy of approximately 3 years. Based on our analysis, the average annual cost of LDCT lung cancer screening in Medicare is estimated to be $241 per person screened. LDCT screening for lung cancer in Medicare beneficiaries aged 55 to 80 years with a history of ≥30 pack-years of smoking and who had smoked within 15 years is low cost, at approximately $1 per member per month. This assumes that 50% of these patients were screened. Such screening is also highly cost-effective, at <$19,000 per life

  18. Health insurance basic actuarial models

    Pitacco, Ermanno


    Health Insurance aims at filling a gap in actuarial literature, attempting to solve the frequent misunderstanding in regards to both the purpose and the contents of health insurance products (and ‘protection products’, more generally) on the one hand, and the relevant actuarial structures on the other. In order to cover the basic principles regarding health insurance techniques, the first few chapters in this book are mainly devoted to the need for health insurance and a description of insurance products in this area (sickness insurance, accident insurance, critical illness covers, income protection, long-term care insurance, health-related benefits as riders to life insurance policies). An introduction to general actuarial and risk-management issues follows. Basic actuarial models are presented for sickness insurance and income protection (i.e. disability annuities). Several numerical examples help the reader understand the main features of pricing and reserving in the health insurance area. A short int...

  19. An actuarial analysis shows that offering lung cancer screening as an insurance benefit would save lives at relatively low cost.

    Pyenson, Bruce S; Sander, Marcia S; Jiang, Yiding; Kahn, Howard; Mulshine, James L


    Lung cancer screening is not established as a public health practice, yet the results of a recent large randomized controlled trial showed that screening with low-dose spiral computed tomography reduces lung cancer mortality. Using actuarial models, this study estimated the costs and benefits of annual lung cancer screening offered as a commercial insurance benefit in the high-risk US population ages 50-64. Assuming current commercial reimbursement rates for treatment, we found that screening would cost about $1 per insured member per month in 2012 dollars. The cost per life-year saved would be below $19,000, an amount that compares favorably with screening for cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers. Our results suggest that commercial insurers should consider lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals to be high-value coverage and provide it as a benefit to people who are at least fifty years old and have a smoking history of thirty pack-years or more. We also believe that payers and patients should demand screening from high-quality, low-cost providers, thus helping set an example of efficient system innovation.

  20. Treatment referral for sex offenders based on clinical judgment versus actuarial risk assessment: match and analysis of mismatch.

    Smid, Wineke J; Kamphuis, Jan Henk; Wever, Edwin C; Van Beek, Daan


    The Risk Need Responsivity (RNR) principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2010) dictate that higher risk sex offenders should receive more intensive treatment. The present study investigates how clinically based treatment assignment relates to risk level in a sex offender sample from The Netherlands. Correlational analyses served to identify sources of mismatches: that is, variables differing significantly in their relation between treatment selection and risk level. Our study sample consisted of 194 convicted rapists and 214 convicted child molesters. All participants' criminal files were retrospectively coded in terms of the items of the STATIC-99R, PCL: SV, and SVR-20. A low to moderate correlation was observed between clinical treatment selection and actuarial risk levels. A substantial part of the sex offenders, especially child molesters, received overly intensive treatment and another substantial part, especially rapists, received treatment of lesser intensity than indicated by their risk levels. General violent and antisocial risk factors seemed to be underemphasized in the clinical evaluation of sex offenders, especially rapists. A negative attitude toward intervention was negatively associated with clinical treatment selection. It is concluded that clinical treatment selection leads to an insufficient match between risk level and treatment level and systematic use of validated structured risk assessment instruments is necessary to ensure optimal adherence to the risk principle.

  1. Application of Actuarial Modelling in Insurance Industry

    Burcã Ana-Maria; Bãtrînca Ghiorghe


    In insurance industry, the financial stability of insurance companies represents an issue of vital importance. In order to maintain the financial stability and meet minimum regulatory requirements, actuaries apply actuarial modeling. Modeling has been at the center of actuarial science and of all the sciences from the beginning of their journey. In insurance industry, actuarial modeling creates a framework that allows actuaries to identify, understand, quantify and manage a wide range of risk...

  2. The Role and Importance of an Actuary in the Insurance

    Zapart, Tomasz


    Actuary on the basis of the tasks arising from the audit process of an insurance undertaking is obliged to submit their opinion on all activities of that establishment which could have an impact on the financial position of an insurance undertaking and consequently affect your ability to meet long-term liabilities of the undertaking by providing professional analysis of the internal and external insurance for the governing bodies. The knowledge and perspective on actuarial topi...

  3. How Fair Is Actuarial Fairness?

    Landes, Xavier


    in exchange for the payment of premi- ums. In the insurance industry, the concept of actuarial fairness serves to establish what could be adequate, fair premiums. Accordingly, premiums paid by policyholders should match as closely as possible their risk exposure (i.e. their expected losses). Such premiums...... are the product of the probabilities of losses and the expected losses. This article presents a discussion of the fairness of actuarial fairness through three steps: (1) defining the concept based on its formulation within the insurance industry; (2) determining in which sense it may be about fairness; and (3......) raising some objections to the actual fairness of actu- arial fairness. The necessity of a normative evaluation of actuarial fairness is justified by the influence of the concept on the current reforms of public insurance systems and the fact that it highlights the question of the repartition of the gains...

  4. A look inside the actuarial black box.

    Math, S E; Youngerman, H


    Hospital executives often rely on actuaries (and their "black boxes") to determine self-insurance program liabilities and funding contributions. Typically, the hospital supplies the actuary with a myriad of statistics, and eventually the hospital receives a liability estimate and recommended funding level. The mysterious actuarial calculations that occur in between data reporting and receipt of the actuary's report are akin to a black box--a complicated device whose internal mechanism is hidden from or mysterious to the user.

  5. Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance

    Sibillo, Marilena


    The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians working in the actuarial and financial fields is producing numerous meaningful scientific results. This volume, comprising a series of four-page papers, gathers new ideas relating to mathematical and statistical methods in the actuarial sciences and finance. The book covers a variety of topics of interest from both theoretical and applied perspectives, including: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit-scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelligent financial trading systems; mixture normality approaches; Monte Carlo-based methodologies; multicriteria methods; nonlinear parameter estimation techniques; nonlinear threshold models; particle swarm optimization; performance measures; portfolio optimization; pricing methods for structured and non-structured derivatives; r...

  6. Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance

    Pizzi, Claudio


    The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians has been shown to be an effective approach for dealing with actuarial, insurance and financial problems, both from an academic perspective and from an operative one. The collection of original papers presented in this volume pursues precisely this purpose. It covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial, insurance and finance fields, all treated in the light of the successful cooperation between the above two quantitative approaches. The papers published in this volume present theoretical and methodological contributions and their applications to real contexts. With respect to the theoretical and methodological contributions, some of the considered areas of investigation are: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelli...

  7. 75 FR 63505 - Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Renewal of Advisory Committee. ] SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries announces the renewal of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. FOR...

  8. Computational Intelligence. Mortality Models for the Actuary

    Willemse, W.J.


    This thesis applies computational intelligence to the field of actuarial (insurance) science. In particular, this thesis deals with life insurance where mortality modelling is important. Actuaries use ancient models (mortality laws) from the nineteenth century, for example Gompertz' and Makeham's la

  9. Modern actuarial risk theory: using R

    Kaas, R.; Goovaerts, M.; Dhaene, J.; Denuit, M.


    Modern Actuarial Risk Theory -- Using R contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus

  10. Market-consistent actuarial valuation

    Wüthrich, Mario V


    This is the third edition of this well-received textbook, presenting powerful methods for measuring insurance liabilities and assets in a consistent way, with detailed mathematical frameworks that lead to market-consistent values for liabilities. Topics covered are stochastic discounting with deflators, valuation portfolio in life and non-life insurance, probability distortions, asset and liability management, financial risks, insurance technical risks, and solvency. Including updates on recent developments and regulatory changes under Solvency II, this new edition of Market-Consistent Actuarial Valuation also elaborates on different risk measures, providing a revised definition of solvency based on industry practice, and presents an adapted valuation framework which takes a dynamic view of non-life insurance reserving risk.

  11. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.


    ... actuarial opinion means a signed declaration in which a qualified actuary states that the assumptions used... policy experience, if any, and reasonable expectations. (b) Qualified actuary means— (1) A member in good standing of the American Academy of Actuaries; or (2) A person who has otherwise demonstrated his or...

  12. 26 CFR 301.6059-1 - Periodic report of actuary.


    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Periodic report of actuary. 301.6059-1 Section...-1 Periodic report of actuary. (a) In general. The actuarial report described in this section must be... funding deficiency (as defined in section 412(a)) to zero, (4) A statement by the enrolled actuary...

  13. 20 CFR 901.2 - Eligibility to perform actuarial services.


    .... 901.2 Section 901.2 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS.... (a) Enrolled actuary. Subject to the standards of performance set forth in subpart C of this part, any individual who is an enrolled actuary as defined in § 901.1(g) may perform actuarial...

  14. 巨灾期权的保险精算定价探析%Analysis of Actuarial Pricing for Catastrophe Insurance Options

    谢世清; 梅云云


    巨灾期权定价理论的滞后是阻碍其市场发展的重要原因之一。利用保险精算原理为巨灾期权定价具有一定优势,并可以借鉴寿险精算中的生命表技术来编制巨灾指数分布表。本文首先从保险精算的角度推导出了巨灾期权的理论定价公式;其次利用巨灾指数分布表对巨灾期权进行了保险精算实证定价;最后比较分析了巨灾指数分布表和寿险生命表。%The lagging pricing models of catastrophe insurance options have hindered the market development. This paper argues that the actuarial pricing method has some advantages and proposes that the preparation of catastrophe index distribution table can learn f

  15. Actuarial Analysis of Social Security Pension Fund Balance%社会保障养老金平衡的精算研究

    郭翠; 柳向东; 王蕙


    The social security pension balance problem is one of the popular topics. On the basis of part accumulation system , overall social planing and individual account, using the standard of China's current actual situation, survival theory and cash flow method , modifies the existing social security model and establishes a new social security pension balance actuarial model are studied. Furthermore, the social security pension balance and fund gap are discussed.%社会保障养老金的平衡问题是社会的一个热点问题之一.在部分积累制的基础上,分别对社会统筹账户和个人账户进行研究.以中国目前实际情况为标准,运用生存理论和现金流方法,对已有社会保障模型进行修改,建立一个新的社会保障养老金平衡的精算模型.并在该模型下,对社会保障养老金平衡和基金缺口进行了讨论.

  16. Choosing the 'best' plan in a health insurance exchange: actuarial value tells only part of the story.

    Lore, Ryan; Gabel, Jon R; McDevitt, Roland; Slover, Michael


    In the health insurance exchanges that will come online in 2014, consumers will be able to compare health plans with respect to actuarial value, or the percentage of health care costs that a plan would pay for a standard population. This analysis illustrates the out-of-pocket costs that might result from plans with various plan designs and actuarial values. We find that average out-of-pocket expense declines as actuarial values rise, but two plans with similar actuarial values can produce very different outcomes for a given person. The overall affordability of a plan also will be influenced by age rating, income-related premium subsidies, and out-of-pocket subsidies. Actuarial value is a useful starting point for selecting a plan, but it does not pinpoint which plan will produce the best overall value for a particular person.

  17. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    Wilson, Christopher James


    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  18. 26 CFR 300.7 - Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.


    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. 300.7... AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.7 Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the initial enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board for the Enrollment...

  19. Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

    Frese, Richard C


    To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

  20. Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

    Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen


    Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

  1. 20 CFR 200.9 - Selection of members of Actuarial Advisory Committee.


    ... actuaries to serve on an Actuarial Advisory Committee. This section describes how the two actuaries are selected. (b) Carrier actuary. One member of the Actuarial Advisory Committee shall be selected by... railroad mileage within the United States. (c) Railway labor actuary. The other member of the...

  2. Gender and Extended Actuarial Functions in Pension Insurance

    Jana Špirková


    Full Text Available This paper brings analysis of the impact of a ban on the use of gender in insurance, with special stress on pension annuity, according to the requirements of the European Court of Justice. The paper brings a state-of-theart overview of known and extended actuarial functions which relate to modeling of a premium of endowment, term life insurance and pension annuity. Moreover, the amounts of the pension annuities payable thly per year in a model of the third pillar pension are modeled and analyzed for different interest rates using life tables for both genders and unisex.

  3. Internship at Taylor Fry Consulting Actuaries

    Kierkels, Bram Joseph Johannes


    Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais As the final part of the master degree, I started my internship on 25 Febru- ary 2013 at Taylor Fry Consulting Actuaries. During the internship my work mainly involved analyzing the outstanding workers compensation liabilities for self-insured clients. In this report I will describe the process of this anal- ysis. Throughout this report I will explain the procedures I used to value outstanding claims.

  4. Do actuaries believe in longevity deceleration?

    Debonneuil, Edouard; Planchet, Frédéric; Loisel, Stéphane


    As more and more people believe that significant life extensions may come soon, should commonly used future mortality assumptions be considered prudent? We find here that commonly used actuarial tables for annuitants – as well as the Lee-Carter model – do not extrapolate life expectancy at the same rate for future years as for past years; instead they produce some longevity deceleration. This is typically because their mortality improvements decrease after a certain age, and those age-specifi...

  5. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing

    Dahlgren, Johan; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen;


    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence – an increase in death rate with advancing age – is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain...... the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32-year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment......, for individuals under two types of land-use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best-approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region...

  6. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings

    Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Reddy, T. A.


    An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.

  7. 新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算分析%Actuarial Analysis of the Replacement Rate of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance

    黄锦英; 罗倩倩


    Based on the analysis of existing research literatures and the policy document about new rural endowment insurance which was put forward in September 2009,this paper tries to construct an actuarial model of endowment insurance replacement rate in order to make an empirical analysis of the replacement rate of new rural social endowment insurance.The result appears that the relationship between the payment years,payment level and the replacement rate level presents positive correlation.This paper also explores the reasons for the low level of replacement rate and the inefficiency of protection and finally puts forward some corresponding countermeasures in government subsidy,investment operations for individual account,payment methods,etc.%在分析已有研究文献的基础上,基于2009年9月出台的新型农村社会养老保险政策文件,依据相关规定和数据构建养老保险替代率精算模型,对新型农村社会养老保险替代率进行实证分析,测算出新制度下养老金缴费年限和缴费档次与替代率水平之间具有正向相关关系,探索新制度下养老金的替代率水平低及其预期保障力不足的深层次原因,并在政府补贴力度、个人账户投资运营以及缴费方式上提出相应的建议。

  8. 76 FR 17762 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES 20 CFR Part 901 RIN 1545-BC82 Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial... of Actuaries. ACTION: Final regulations. SUMMARY: This document contains final regulations under... actuaries. These regulations update the eligibility requirements for performing actuarial services for...

  9. actuar: An R Package for Actuarial Science

    Christophe Dutang


    Full Text Available actuar is a package providing additional Actuarial Science functionality to the R statistical system. The project was launched in 2005 and the package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network since February 2006. The current version of the package contains functions for use in the fields of loss distributions modeling, risk theory (including ruin theory, simulation of compound hierarchical models and credibility theory. This paper presents in detail but with few technical terms the most recent version of the package.

  10. Three essays on actuarial social security theory

    Ventura Marco, Manuel


    Esta tesis se centra en dos de los instrumentos básicos para mejorar los sistemas de pensiones de reparto (PAYG pension systems): el balance actuarial (ABS) y las cuentas nocionales de aportación definida (NDC). Las investigaciones sobre dichos instrumentos consideran, en general, sólo la contingencia de jubilación. La tesis explora las posibilidades de generalizarlos añadiendo dos nuevas contingencias, la invalidez permanente (disability) y la dependencia (LTC). Los objetivos principales que...

  11. 42 CFR 440.340 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.


    ... individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA). (2) Using generally accepted actuarial... actuary preparing the opinion must select and specify the standardized set of factors and the...

  12. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.


    ... GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY ACT OF 1974... designation. An enrolled actuary shall not advertise his/her status as an enrolled actuary in any...

  13. Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

    Wainwright, Barbara A.


    This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

  14. Actuarial models of life insurance with stochastic interest rate

    Wei, Xiang; Hu, Ping


    On the basis of general actuarial model of life insurance, this article has carried on research to continuous life insurance actuarial models under the stochastic interest rate separately. And it provide net single premium for life insurance and life annuity due over a period based on that de Moivre law of mortality and Makeham's law of mortality separately.

  15. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing.

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Øien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Sletvold, Nina


    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence-an increase in death rate with advancing age-is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32 year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment, for individuals under two types of land use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region. At older ages, senescence was evident only when accounting for a positive effect of reproductive investment on mortality. Our results demonstrate actuarial senescence as well as a survival-reproduction trade-off in plants, and indicate that environmental context may influence senescence rates. This knowledge is crucial for understanding the evolution of demographic senescence and for models of plant population dynamics.

  16. 77 FR 63337 - Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice of Renewal of Advisory Committee. SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries announces the renewal of the charter of the...

  17. 76 FR 81362 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES 20 CFR Part 901 RIN 1545-BC82 Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial... Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Correction to final regulations. SUMMARY: This document contains corrections..., 2011 (76 FR 17762) relating to the enrollment of actuaries. DATES: This correction is effective...

  18. 42 CFR 457.431 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.


    ...— (1) By an individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries; (2) Using generally accepted actuarial principles and methodologies of the American Academy of Actuaries; (3) Using a... coverage. (c) The actuary who prepares the opinion must select and specify the standardized set...

  19. 20 CFR 901.32 - Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries.


    ... actuaries. 901.32 Section 901.32 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... Suspension or Termination of Enrollment § 901.32 Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries. If an... Guaranty Corporation, or a member of the Joint Board has reason to believe that an enrolled actuary...




    Full Text Available The XXI century was marked by the convergence and harmonization, this century is distinguished in that it lays the foundation of accounting actuarial, which is characterized by up to date values and actuarial calculations . Actuarial accounting is reflected best in insurance system. In the market economy, insurance system is on one hand a means of protecting the business and property of citizens, on the other hand a business that generates profits. From this context, we can say that the subject of actuarial accounting is the measurement and recognition of assets and result of the change in time value of money. Time is an important variable considered in any economic decision investing and financing.

  1. Valuing structured professional judgment: predictive validity, decision-making, and the clinical-actuarial conflict.

    Falzer, Paul R


    Structured professional judgment (SPJ) has received considerable attention as an alternative to unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment, and as a means of resolving their ongoing conflict. However, predictive validity studies have typically relied on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the same technique commonly used to validate actuarial assessment tools. This paper presents SPJ as distinct from both unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment. A key distinguishing feature of SPJ is the contribution of modifiable factors, either dynamic or protective, to summary risk ratings. With modifiable factors, the summary rating scheme serves as a prognostic model rather than a classification procedure. However, prognostic models require more extensive and thorough predictive validity testing than can be provided by ROC analysis. It is proposed that validation should include calibration and reclassification techniques, as well as additional measures of discrimination. Several techniques and measures are described and illustrated. The paper concludes by tracing the limitations of ROC analysis to its philosophical foundation and its origin as a statistical theory of decision-making. This foundation inhibits the performance of crucial tasks, such as determining the sufficiency of a risk assessment and examining the evidentiary value of statistical findings. The paper closes by noting a current effort to establish a viable and complementary relationship between SPJ and decision-making theory.

  2. Human actuarial aging increases faster when background death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?

    Hawkes, Kristen; Smith, Ken R; Blevins, James K


    Many analyses of human populations have found that age-specific mortality rates increase faster across most of adulthood when overall mortality levels decline. This contradicts the relationship often expected from Williams' classic hypothesis about the effects of natural selection on the evolution of senescence. More likely, much of the within-species difference in actuarial aging is not due to variation in senescence, but to the strength of filters on the heterogeneity of frailty in older survivors. A challenge to this differential frailty hypothesis was recently posed by an analysis of life tables from historical European populations and traditional societies that reported variation in actuarial aging consistent with Williams' hypothesis after all. To investigate the challenge, we reconsidered those cases and aging measures. Here we show that the discrepancy depends on Ricklefs' aging rate measure, ω, which decreases as mortality levels drop because it is an index of mortality level itself, not the rate of increase in mortality with age. We also show unappreciated correspondence among the parameters of Gompertz-Makeham and Weibull survival models. Finally, we compare the relationships among mortality parameters of the traditional societies and the historical series, providing further suggestive evidence that differential heterogeneity has strong effects on actuarial aging.

  3. 1st International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance

    Garrido, José; Hernández-Hernández, Daniel; ICASQF


    Featuring contributions from industry and academia, this volume includes chapters covering a diverse range of theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance, including portfolio management, derivative valuation, risk theory and the economics of insurance. Developed from the First International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, held at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia in Bogotá in June 2014, this volume highlights different approaches to issues arising from industries in the Andean and Carribean regions. Contributions address topics such as Reverse mortgage schemes and urban dynamics, modeling spot price dynamics in the electricity market, and optimizing calibration and pricing with SABR models.

  4. An Overview of the Society of Actuaries and Its Education Programs

    Klugman, Stuart; Long, Gena


    The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial organization. This article describes the SOA with particular attention paid to its education and qualification processes and resources available for university and college programs.

  5. 78 FR 773 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS...


    ... Employment and Training Administration Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting Group, Hartford, CT; Notice of Affirmative... workers of Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/ Actuarial/Information Delivery...

  6. 78 FR 8596 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS...


    ... Employment and Training Administration Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting Group, Hartford, CT; Notice of Negative... Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate &...

  7. Has actuarial aging "slowed" over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts.

    Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew


    G.C. Williams's 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or "extrinsic," mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams's hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams's hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklefs's omega, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages 60-70, m'(60-70), and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms.

  8. Throwing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?

    Abbott, Brian R


    The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 and its progeny in particular are insufficient for accurate assessment of risk for dangerous sex offenders. They propose using a combination of clinical judgment with actuarial science as a solution. This analysis and review of Sreenivasan et al. reveals and corrects flaws in the arguments they employed to support their position and shows how the combination of actuarial science with clinical judgment is more error prone than the actuarial approach only, and cannot be forensically defended in court. Recommendations on reporting Static-99R data in expert testimony are provided, taking into account the limitations of the instrument.

  9. 26 CFR 300.8 - Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.


    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee...) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.8 Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board...

  10. 77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Board of Actuaries; Federal Advisory Committee Meeting


    ... of the Secretary Department of Defense (DoD) Board of Actuaries; Federal Advisory Committee Meeting... committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: July 19, 2012, from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m... Point of Contact: Persons desiring to attend the DoD Board of Actuaries meeting or make an...

  11. Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

    Wakefield, Thomas P.


    The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

  12. 76 FR 67774 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...


    ... hold a meeting on November 14, 2011, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, cio Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  13. 75 FR 6359 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting


    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting AGENCY: Department of... amended), and 41 CFR 102-3.150, the Department of Defense announces that the DoD Board of Actuaries will..., VA 22203. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Inger Pettygrove at the DoD Office of the Actuary, 4040...

  14. The Undergraduate Statistics Major--A Prelude to Actuarial Science Training.

    Ratliff, Michael I.; Williams, Raymond E.

    Recently there has been increased interest related to the Actuarial Science field. An actuary is a business professional who uses mathematical skills to define, analyze, and solve financial and social problems. This paper examines: (1) the interface between Statistical and Actuarial Science training; (2) statistical courses corresponding to…

  15. 75 FR 22754 - Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter Renewal


    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter... Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Department of Defense Board of Actuaries... members appointed by the Secretary of Defense from among qualified professional actuaries who are...

  16. 77 FR 24233 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...


    ... hold a meeting on May 30, 2012, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S. Railroad... communications or notices to the RRB Actuarial Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad...

  17. 75 FR 47650 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...


    ... hold a meeting on September 23, 2010, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  18. The Role of an Actuarial Director in the Development of an Introductory Program

    Staples, Susan G.


    We describe the roles and duties of a director in developing an introductory actuarial program. Degree plan design, specialized exam courses, internship classes, coordination of efforts with Economics and Finance Departments, opportunities for creating a minor in actuarial mathematics, actuarial clubs, career advice, and interaction with actuarial…

  19. Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

    Charlwood, Kevin E.


    Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

  20. Conversations with your actuary: getting to the right number.

    Frese, Richard C


    A healthcare finance leader can guarantee recognition of his or her organization's insurance program and better manage the program's liability by discussing changes in the following areas with an actuary: Claims management. Exposure. Coverage or retention Financial reporting of losses. Management goals. Other insurance and operational matters.

  1. Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

    Mills, Mark A.


    The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

  2. 78 FR 9890 - DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting


    ... of the Secretary DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: DoD... Committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: July 18, 2013, from 1:00 p.m. to 5... Human Resource Activity, DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01, Alexandria,...

  3. "Cult of equity": actuaries and the transformation of pension fund investing, 1948–1960


    This article examines the mid-twentieth-century transformation of U.K. pension fund investment policy known as the “cult of equity.” It focuses on the influence exercised by the Association of Superannuation and Pension Funds over actuarial and corporate governance standards, through actuaries who were members of its council. This intervention led to increasingly permissive actuarial valuations that reduced contributions for sponsors of pension funds investing in equities. Increased demand fo...

  4. Have We Finally Achieved Actuarial Fairness of Social Security Retirement Benefits and Will It Last?

    Heiland, Frank W.; Na Yin


    This paper develops a framework to analyze the actuarial adjustments faced by American workers who claim Social Security benefits before or after their Full Retirement Age (FRA). We derive the conditions under which these adjustments are “actuarially fair” (or “neutral”) and develop measures to characterize the devi- ation from the fair form. Fair adjustment schedules are increasing at an increasing rate in take-up age and become flatter as longevity rises. We document that the actuarial fit ...

  5. Optimization of the Actuarial Model of Defined Contribution Pension Plan

    Yan Li


    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the actuarial models of defined contribution pension plan. Through assumptions and calculations, the expected replacement ratios of three different defined contribution pension plans are compared. Specially, more significant considerable factors are put forward in the further cost and risk analyses. In order to get an assessment of current status, the paper finds a relationship between the replacement ratio and the pension investment rate using econometrics method. Based on an appropriate investment rate of 6%, an expected replacement ratio of 20% is reached.

  6. Estadística actuarial : regresión lineal

    Esteban González, María Victoria


    Estas notas de clase son de utilidad como material docente para los alumnos de la asignatura Estadística Actuarial: Regresión de la Licenciatura en Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras. También pueden ser útiles a los alumnos de asignaturas afines como es Introducción a la Econometría en la Licenciatura de Administración y Dirección de Empresas y en la Licenciatura de Economía. En estos dos últimos casos sólo necesitarían los capítulos 1, 2 y 3. Las notas de clase se estructuran siguiendo ...

  7. Estadística actuarial : modelos estocásticos

    Ferreira García, María Eva; Garín Martín, María Araceli


    Son destinatarios de estas notas de clase, los alumnos de la asignatura Estadística Actuarial: modelos estocásticos, actualmente impartida dentro de la Licenciatura en Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras, futuro grado en Finanzas y Seguros. El contenido se estructura en cinco capítulos. El primero contiene una colección de ejercicios propuestos, con la idea de revisar mediante su resolución, una serie de conceptos básicos del cálculo de probabilidades, que serán necesarios en el resto de ...

  8. Clinical versus Actuarial Predictions of Violence in Patients with Mental Illness.

    Gardner, William; And Others


    Compared accuracy of an actuarial procedure for the prediction of community violence by patients with mental illnesses to accuracy of clinicians' concern ratings of patient violence. Data came from a study of 357 pairs of patients seen in a psychiatric emergency room. Actuarial predictions based only on patients' histories of violence were more…

  9. A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

    Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard


    The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

  10. 78 FR 64943 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...


    ... percent reserve ratio has been the normal target used to calculate the Part B premium. In view of the... physician update, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following year's expenditures... deductible by the ratio of the 2014 aged actuarial rate to the 2013 aged actuarial rate. The...

  11. 76 FR 67572 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...


    ... has been set for a given year, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following... deductible by the ratio of the 2012 aged actuarial rate over the 2011 aged actuarial rate. The amount... physician fees in 2012, it is appropriate to maintain a significantly larger Part B contingency reserve...

  12. 75 FR 6360 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries


    ... Actuaries AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Meeting notice. SUMMARY: Under the provisions of the... that the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries will meet on August 18, 2010... Actuary, 4040 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 308, Arlington, VA 22203; phone 703-696-7404....

  13. 77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Federal...


    ... of the Secretary Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries... Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: Friday, August 3, 2012, from 1:30 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. ADDRESSES... Medicare- Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries meeting or make an oral presentation or submit...

  14. A Note on Realistic Dividends in Actuarial Surplus Models

    Benjamin Avanzi


    Full Text Available Because of the profitable nature of risk businesses in the long term, de Finetti suggested that surplus models should allow for cash leakages, as otherwise the surplus would unrealistically grow (on average to infinity. These leakages were interpreted as ‘dividends’. Subsequent literature on actuarial surplus models with dividend distribution has mainly focussed on dividend strategies that either maximise the expected present value of dividends until ruin or lead to a probability of ruin that is less than one (see Albrecher and Thonhauser, Avanzi for reviews. An increasing number of papers are directly interested in modelling dividend policies that are consistent with actual practice in financial markets. In this short note, we review the corporate finance literature with the specific aim of fleshing out properties that dividend strategies should ideally satisfy, if one wants to model behaviour that is consistent with practice.

  15. The Actuarial Society of South Africa AIDS model.


    The AIDS Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa has developed a demographic model to allow researchers to project the impact of HIV and AIDS in South Africa. The model is available for use as a projection tool rather than to endorse a given projected scenario as being representative. It is very flexible and can be adapted to suit different purposes by anyone with a working knowledge of Microsoft Excel. The need for a model, calibration of the model, the lack of allowance in the model for racial and cultural heterogeneity in the underlying population, and default scenario projections are discussed. The model is available free of charge via E-mail and on the worldwide web at the following respective addresses: and

  16. Modelización financiero-actuarial de un seguro de dependencia = Long Term Care Insurance Actuarial Model

    Herranz Peinado, Patricia


    Full Text Available España ha seguido la tendencia de otros países en cuanto a la cobertura de las personas dependientes, es decir, aquellas que necesitan ayuda para realizar las tareas básicas de la vida diaria, y lo ha hecho mediante la aprobación de la Ley de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de Dependencia, que se basa en la financiación pública. A pesar de los esfuerzos para el desarrollo de la Ley, ésta no está dando los frutos que debiera haber dado y se hace necesaria la existencia de productos privados de cobertura que puedan atender a las necesidades de aquellos que los demandan. Dado los escasos estudios que sobre este tema existen todavía en nuestro país, el establecer una aproximación a las primas de un seguro privado de dependencia puede servir de referencia para el análisis de su comercialización por parte de las aseguradoras. En este trabajo se trata de analizar una serie de cuestiones que den respuesta a dos objetivos. Por una parte, establecer un modelo financiero-actuarial que sirva como apoyo en el diseño de productos privados que cubran la dependencia y, por otra, realizar una aproximación a las bases técnicas actuariales que lleven a la cuantificación de las primas. = Spain has followed the trend of other countries about long term care, that is, people who need help to perform the basic tasks of daily living. In December 2006, Spanish Parliament approved the law called Ley de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de Dependencia, with public financing. This law is not producing the expected results, and it makes necessary the existence of private insurance. Currently, there are few studies on long term care in our country. An approach to premiums of a private insurance can serve as reference for the studies by insurers. This work tries to study a series of questions responding simultaneously to two goals, establishing an actuarial model and, on

  17. 78 FR 9890 - DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory...


    ... of the Secretary DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal... Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: Friday, August 2, 2013, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m..., DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01, Alexandria, VA 22350-4000....


    Evaristo Diz Cruz


    Full Text Available En el presente paper se trata el tema de la valoración actuarial del nuevo esquema de prestaciones sociales contempladas en la nueva Ley Orgánica del Trabajo de Venezuela . Se desarrolla un modelo actuarial en detalle y se ilustra con un ejemplo numérico el impacto en temas de pasivo actuarial para una empresa típica. Besides the usual pension benefits the pension plan of a company may be forced by law in some countries to offer wage based Lump-sum payments for labor termination this is the Venezuela case. An actuarial model of funding severance payment liabilities is formulated and studied. All formulas involved are explained in detail. Finally a specific numerical example illustrates the dynamics of the liabilities determined by the Projected Unit Credit Method for a typical Venezuelan company within the new Labor Law context a Venezuelan accounting College is promoting Actuarial Valuations of this contingencies as mandatory so this model can be used for it.

  19. Modelos estocásticos de la estadística actuarial


    El siguiente texto constituye las notas de clase de la asignatura Estadística actuarial: modelos estocásticos, de carácter obligatorio, que se cursa durante el segundo cuatrimestre del primer curso del máster en Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras. Dicha asignatura se sitúa dentro de las asignaturas específicas del mundo asegurador, con especial incidencia en el cálculo actuarial y valoración de riesgos financieros. El seguimiento de estas notas requiere del conocimiento...

  20. The lifecontingencies Package: Performing Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Calculations in R

    Giorgio Alfredo Spedicato


    Full Text Available It is possible to model life contingency insurances with the lifecontingencies R package, which is capable of performing financial and actuarial mathematics calculations. Its functions permit one to determine both the expected value and the stochastic distribution of insured benefits. Therefore, life insurance coverage can be priced and portfolios risk-based capital requirements can be assessed. This paper briefly summarizes the theory regarding life contingencies that is based on financial mathematics and demographic con- cepts. Then, with the aid of applied examples, it shows how the lifecontingencies package can be a useful tool for executing routine, deterministic, or stochastic calculations for life-contingencies actuarial mathematics.

  1. Monitoring Actuarial Present Values of Term Life Insurance By a Statistical Process Control Chart

    Hafidz Omar, M.


    Tracking performance of life insurance or similar insurance policy using standard statistical process control chart is complex because of many factors. In this work, we present the difficulty in doing so. However, with some modifications of the SPC charting framework, the difficulty can be manageable to the actuaries. So, we propose monitoring a simpler but natural actuarial quantity that is typically found in recursion formulas of reserves, profit testing, as well as present values. We shared some simulation results for the monitoring process. Additionally, some advantages of doing so is discussed.

  2. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing

    Dahlgren, Johan; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen


    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence – an increase in death rate with advancing age – is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explai...


    José Enrique Devesa Carpio


    Full Text Available El trabajo analiza, desde el punto de vista actuarial, la sostenibilidad de la Caja Nacional de Seguridad Social de Marruecos, que es un régimen contributivo que incorpora tanto a trabajadores por cuenta ajena como por cuenta propia. Para ello se llevan a cabo casi 2000 simulaciones, a partir de individuos tipo definidos en función de las peculiaridades del sistema. Además de estudiar la situación actual se analiza el efecto de la reforma que se pretende aplicar al sistema. La conclusión principal es la insostenibilidad actuarial del mismo. The paper analyzes, from the actuarial point of view, the sustainability of the National Social Security Fund in Morocco, which is a contributory scheme that incorporates both employees and self-employed. To do this, almost 2000 simulations are conducted, from different type of individuals defined according to the peculiarities of the system. In addition to studying the current situation, the effect of the reform intended to apply to the system will be analyzed. The main conclusion is the actuarial unsustainability of the system.

  4. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)


    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same yea

  5. Age distributions of Greenlandic dwarf shrubs support concept of negligible actuarial senescence

    Dahlgren, Johan; Rizzi, Silvia; Schweingruber, Fritz


    Many plants and sessile animals may not show actuarial senescence, the increase in mortality with age predicted to be ubiquitous by classic evolutionary theories of aging. Age-structured demographic information is, however, limited for most organisms. We assessed the age distributions of nine dwarf...... to be an important variable for making population projections and determining extinction risks....

  6. Academic Attributes of College Freshmen that Lead to Success in Actuarial Studies in a Business College

    Smith, Richard Manning; Schumacher, Phyllis


    The authors studied beginning undergraduate actuarial concentrators in a business college. They identified four variables (math Scholastic Aptitude Test [SAT] score, verbal SAT score, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam) that were available for entering college students that…

  7. 75 FR 68790 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...


    ... has been set for a given year, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following... deductible is calculated by multiplying the 2010 deductible by the ratio of the 2011 aged actuarial rate over... larger Part B contingency reserve than would otherwise be necessary. The asset level projected for...

  8. From Meehl (1954) to fast and frugal heuristics (and back) : new insights into how to bridge the clinical-actuarial divide

    Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos; Pachur, Thorsten; Machery, Edouard; Wallin, Annika


    It is difficult to overestimate Paul Meehl’s influence on judgment and decision-making research. His ‘disturbing little book’ (Meehl, 1986, p. 370) Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence (1954) is known as an attack on human judgment and a call for replacing clinicians with actuarial methods. More than 40 years later, fast and frugal heuristics—proposed as models of human judgment—were formalized, tested, and found to be surprisingly accura...

  9. Actuarial calculation for PSAK-24 purposes post-employment benefit using market-consistent approach

    Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie


    In this paper we use a market-consistent approach to calculate present value of obligation of a companies' post-employment benefit in accordance with PSAK-24 (the Indonesian accounting standard). We set some actuarial assumption such as Indonesian TMI 2011 mortality tables for mortality assumptions, accumulated salary function for wages assumption, a scaled (to mortality) disability assumption and a pre-defined turnover rate for termination assumption. For economic assumption, we use binomial tree method with estimated discount rate as its average movement. In accordance with PSAK-24, the Projected Unit Credit method has been adapted to determine the present value of obligation (actuarial liability), so we use this method with a modification in its discount function.

  10. Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

    Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Holder, Norah


    Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

  11. Actuarial modeling of cost of voluntary pension insurance of the population of the region

    Mikhailova Svetlana Sergeevna


    Full Text Available In article approach to determination of net value of the contract of pension insurance for the man's and female population, considering regional demographic features is offered. Results of actuarial calculation of the size pure net - rates of individual pension insurance are presented, "sensitivity" of cost of insurance is defined by methods of statistical modeling to key parameters of a pension product for the region population.

  12. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei


    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  13. Thrown a curve. CMS' actuaries: healthcare spending will continue to increase, despite reform law promises.

    Daly, Rich


    While CMS actuaries say the 2010 reform law will not slow the nation's healthcare spending in the coming decade, Mary Grealy, of the Healthcare Leadership Council, says the law "was basically a coverage bill. We just didn't get to the other half, which would be aimed at the cost-drivers in the system." She adds that the healthcare system will not control ongoing steep increases in spending until additional legislation reshapes the dominant public insurance plans.

  14. ActuArial Accounting – A Branch of the Financial Accounting

    Gheorghe V. Lepadatu; Doina Maria Tilea


    The opening of the accounting to the actuarial calculation is a normal consequence of its evolutive spirit. At the origin of the international accounting standards lies the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation bases: the historical cost, the current c...

  15. The Actuarial Accounting in the Modern Financial-Accounting Management with Applications to the Entities

    Gheorghe V. Lepadatu


    The opening of the accounting to the actuarial calculation is a normal consequence of its evolving spirit. At the origin of the international accounting standards lies the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation bases: the historical cost, the current co...

  16. The lifecontingencies Package: Performing Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Calculations in R

    Giorgio Alfredo Spedicato


    It is possible to model life contingency insurances with the lifecontingencies R package, which is capable of performing financial and actuarial mathematics calculations. Its functions permit one to determine both the expected value and the stochastic distribution of insured benefits. Therefore, life insurance coverage can be priced and portfolios risk-based capital requirements can be assessed. This paper briefly summarizes the theory regarding life contingencies that is based on financial m...

  17. 基于期权定价视角的医疗保险精算原理与方法%The Principle and Method of Medical Insurance Actuarial and Its Application Based on Option Pricing Theory



    期权定价与精算定价还存在一定差异,如何克服这些差异并建立适合于医疗保险精算特点的期权定价模型是本文研究的出发点.将期权定价与精算技术整合于医疗保险精算领域,通过规范的经济分析将纯保费测算问题转化为期权定价问题,将医疗保险纯保费看成是一个特珠的欧式看涨期权价格.利用医疗保险精算的期权定价方法,从评估保险人的损失和相应概率入手确定医疗保险的纯保费,通过对模型的适当修正,实现考虑免赔额、共同保险和赔偿限额的纯保费期权定价,为医疗保险精算提供了一个新颖的分析工具,进一步拓展了医疗保险精算方法的研究.最后利用卫生部统计中心数据,基于历年人均医疗费用水平测算了我国居民需缴纳的门诊社区费率,为我国医疗改革和医疗保险实践提供理论参考和决策支持.%Option pricing and actuarial pricing also exist certain differences. The starting point of this paper is to explore how to overcome these differences to establish an option pricing modelsuitable to insurance actuarial characteristics. The option pricing and actuarial technique are integrated in medical insurance actuarial fields, by turning the pure premium actuarial problem into an option pricing issues , and health insurance pure premiums into a special European call option prices through the specification of economic analysis. Using the option pricing method of medical insurance actuarial, the paper determines pure health insurance premiums from payoff of the insurer and the corresponding probability to get the pure premium pricing eonsidering the deductibles, coinsurance and compensaion limits through appropriate amendments to the model, and to provide a new analysis tool for medical insurance actuarial, and further expansion of the medical insurance actuarial methods. Finally Community-based health Care fee are calculated using the statistics from the

  18. The Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for the Prediction of First-Time Offending.

    Assink, Mark; van der Put, Claudia E; Stams, Geert Jan J M


    For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police.

  19. Reforming Military Retirement: Analysis in Support of the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission


    of the Actuary cheerfully provided key input for our analysis, no matter the time pressure. We also thank our RAND colleagues David Knapp and...DoD Actuary . The final task was to analyze the cost savings and change in government outlays during the transition to the steady state, including...last part of the chapter presents our steady-state estimates of cost savings for three cases, making use of input received from the DoD Actuary , for


    Daniel Hernández González


    Full Text Available El límite de ingresos es una herramienta útil para objetivar la carencia de rentas y permitir la obtención de pensiones no contributivas. Sin embargo, su aplicación práctica da lugar a escenarios de escasa justificación técnica o social, por lo que el uso de la equivalencia actuarial sería de gran utilidad para determinar de una forma más adecuada el verdadero estado patrimonial del individuo a lo largo del tiempo y, con ello, la realidad de sus derechos en materia de seguridad social. The limit of earnings is an useful tool to define the lack of income and allow access to a non-contributory pension. However, its practical application promotes scenarios with poor technical or social justification, so the use of actuarial equivalence would be useful to determine adequately the person’s real patrimony in the long term and, thus, the reality of their rights of social security.

  1. Ethical practice in sex offender assessment: consideration of actuarial and polygraph methods.

    Vess, James


    The current generation of community protection laws represents a shift in priorities that may see the individual rights of sex offenders compromised for the goal of public safety. At the center of many judicial decisions under these laws are the risk assessment reports provided by mental health practitioners. The widespread enactment of laws allowing for additional sanctions for sex offenders, and a burgeoning research literature regarding the methods used to assess risk have served to heighten rather than resolve the ethical concerns associated with professional practice in this area. This article examines ethical issues inherent in the use of two assessment methods commonly used with sex offenders in the correctional context, focusing on actuarial measures and polygraph tests. Properly conducted and adequately reported actuarial findings are considered to provide useful information of sufficient accuracy to inform rather than mislead judicial decision makers, although careful consideration must be given to the limitations of current measures in each individual case. Despite its increasing use, polygraph testing is considered controversial, with little consensus regarding its accuracy or appropriate applications. On the basis of the current state of the professional literature regarding the polygraph, its use with sex offenders raises unresolved ethical concerns.


    Fatima Badat


    Full Text Available Social Security in most African countries has evolved significantly in terms of perspectives, motives, governance as well as innovation of benefits and administration. African countries are slowly, one by one, beginning to reassess the role of social security in correcting several social ills. Empowerment programs and grants are increasingly being provided via social security to women and the youth. From the roots of social security, even very low income countries, some of which have recently experienced several years of civil war and extreme economic hardships, have begun to improve benefit structures and amounts, which include national medical benefits. The attention being provided to social security and how it fits into a nation’s plans to lift itself out of poverty is increasingly involving the actuarial profession from international organisations such as ILO and ISSA as well as consulting actuaries and academics. Assessing and ensuring sustainability of social security benefits requires actuarial valuations to take long-term consequences involving demographic changes into account in the face of providing the benefits in the short term; asset liability modelling to ensure adequate resources are held; ensuring that results are appropriately reported and communicated to key stakeholders; as well as developing long-term strategic plans and dynamic systems surrounding all of these issues. In this paper, the role of actuaries is brought to the centre of the increasingly changing face and evolving culture of social security in taking Africa closer to poverty alleviation. La Seguridad Social en la mayoría de los países africanos ha evolucionado significativamente en cuanto a perspectivas, motivos, gobernanza, así como en innovación en las prestaciones y la adminsitración. Los países africanos están comenzando a reevaluar el papel de la Seguridad Social en la eliminación de determinados problemas sociales. Los programas de acción y los

  3. Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records.

    van der Put, Claudia E


    Estimating the risk for recidivism is important for many areas of the criminal justice system. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT) was developed for juvenile offenders based solely on police records, with the aim to estimate the risk of general recidivism among large groups of juvenile offenders by police officers without clinical expertise. On the basis of the Y-ARAT, juvenile offenders are classified into five risk groups based on (combinations of) 10 variables including different types of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of other incidents, total number of incidents in which co-occupants at the youth's address were suspects, gender, and age at first incident. The Y-ARAT was developed on a sample of 2,501 juvenile offenders and validated on another sample of 2,499 juvenile offenders, showing moderate predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = .73), with little variation between the construction and validation sample. The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT was considered sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police.

  4. If You Build It, Will They Come? Tales of Developing a New Degree Program in Actuarial Science

    Marano, Lisa E.


    In 2007, the B.S. in Applied Mathematics program consisting of five concentrations, including Actuarial Science, began at West Chester University of Pennsylvania, and we graduated our first class (of one) that December. We describe our program, some ideas to consider when planning your own program, and share some of the successes of our program…

  5. Optimization of Actuarial Model for Individual Account of Rural Social Pension Insurance

    Wenxian; CAO


    This paper firstly analyzes different payment methods of individual account and the pension replacement rate under the pension payment method.Results show that it will be more scientific and reasonable for the individual account of new rural social pension insurance to adopt the actuarial model of payment according to proportion of income and periodic prestation at variable amount.The Guiding Opinions on New Rural Social Pension Insurance sets forth individual account should be paid at fixed amount,and the insured voluntarily selects payment level as per criteria set by the State.The monthly calculation and distribution amount of pension is the total amount of individual account divided by139.Therefore,it should start from continuation of policies and make adjustment of payment level in accordance with growth of per capita net income of rural residents.When condition permits,it is expected to realize transition to payment as per income proportion and periodic prestation at variable amount.

  6. Ruin Probability and Joint Distributions of Some Actuarial Random Vectors in the Compound Pascal Model

    Xian-min Geng; Shu-chen Wan


    The compound negative binomial model, introduced in this paper, is a discrete time version. We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process, and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuarial random vectors in this model. By the strong Markov property and the mass function of a defective renewal sequence, we obtain the explicit expressions of the ruin probability, the finite-horizon ruin probability,the joint distributions of T, U(T - 1), |U(T)| and inf 0≤n<T1 U(n) (i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, the deficit at ruin and maximal deficit from ruin to recovery) and the distributions of some actuariai random vectors.

  7. An actuarial approach to comparing early stage and late stage lung cancer mortality and survival.

    Goldberg, Sara W; Mulshine, James L; Hagstrom, Dale; Pyenson, Bruce S


    Comparing the mortality characteristics of different cohorts is an essential process in the life insurance industry. Pseudodisease, lead-time bias, and length bias, which are critical to determining the value of cancer screening, have close analogues in life insurance company management, including the temporal impact of underwriting. Ratios of all-cause mortality rates for cancer cohorts relative to standard population mortality rates can provide insights into early stage and late stage mortality differences, differences by age, sex, race, and histology, and allow modeling of biases associated with early stage detection or screening protocols. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data set has characteristics that allow efficient application of actuarial techniques. We show the mortality burden associated with treated early stage lung cancer and that identifying all lung cancers at early stage could reduce US lung cancer deaths by over 70,000 per year.


    闫海峰; 刘三阳


    Using physical probability measure of price process and the principle of fairpremium, the results of Mogers Bladt and Hina Hviid Rydberg are generalized. In twocases of paying intermediate divisends and no intermediate dividends, the Black-Scholesmodel is generalized to the case where the risk-less asset (bond or bank account) earns atime-dependent interest rate and risk asset (stock) has time-dependent the continuouslycompounding expected rate of return, volatility. In these cases the accurate pricing formulaand put- call parity of European option are obtained. The general approach of option pricingis given for the general Black-Scholes of the risk asset (stock) has the continuouslycompounding expected rate of return, volatility. The accurate pricing formula and put- callparity of European option on a stock whose price process is driven by general Ornstein-Uhlenback (O-U) process are given by actuarial approach.

  9. El tratamiento actuarial de los periodos de carencia y el contraseguro de primas en el seguro de dependencia.

    Ricote Gil, Fernando.


    Full Text Available La dependencia es un estado en el que se encuentran las personas que por razones ligadas a la falta o la pérdida de autonomía física, psíquica o intelectual tienen necesidad de asistencia y/o atención significativa para la realización los actos corrientes de la vida diaria. Dentro de la iniciativa privada, el sector asegurador juega un importante papel para la prestación de garantías derivadas de esta cobertura. Un aspecto fundamental en el estudio de esta cobertura es la consideración de los periodos de carencia y el tratamiento del contraseguro de primas durante los mismo. Se analiza el riesgo actuarial y su tratamiento en esta cobertura y la incidencia en la valoración actuarial de las primas por prestaciones de dependencia.

  10. A theoretical model of the evolution of actuarial senescence under environmental stress.

    Watson, H; Cohen, A A; Isaksson, C


    Free-living organisms are exposed to a wide range of stressors, all of which can disrupt components of stress-related and detoxification physiology. The subsequent accumulation of somatic damage is widely believed to play a major role in the evolution of senescence. Organisms have evolved sophisticated physiological regulatory mechanisms to maintain homeostasis in response to environmental perturbations, but these systems are likely to be constrained in their ability to optimise robustness to multiple stressors due to functional correlations among related traits. While evolutionary change can accelerate due to human ecological impacts, it remains to be understood how exposure to multiple environmental stressors could affect senescence rates and subsequently population dynamics and fitness. We used a theoretical evolutionary framework to quantify the potential consequences for the evolution of actuarial senescence in response to exposure to simultaneous physiological stressors--one versus multiple and additive versus synergistic--in a hypothetical population of avian "urban adapters". In a model in which multiple stressors have additive effects on physiology, species may retain greater capacity to recover, or respond adaptively, to environmental challenges. However, in the presence of high synergy, physiological dysregulation suddenly occurs, leading to a rapid increase in age-dependent mortality and subsequent population collapse. Our results suggest that, if the synergistic model is correct, population crashes in environmentally-stressed species could happen quickly and with little warning, as physiological thresholds of stress resistance are overcome.

  11. 弹性退休制下退休年金的随机精算模型与模拟测算∗%The Stochastic Actuarial Models and Simulation about Retirement Annuity under Flexible Retirement System



    弹性退休制是应对老龄化的社会养老保险制度改革未来选择之一,因此研究该制度下的退休年金精算问题具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文运用二项分布拟合退休年龄,带跳的非连续随机微分方程拟合利率,带跳Feller过程拟合死力强度,分析了弹性退休制下退休年金寿险精算函数,给出了生命年金、退休年金、退休年金二阶矩精算现值与均衡净保费的表达式,并利用模型对相关精算函数进行模拟测算。这些公式为弹性退休制下的保险金、均衡保险费等提供了精算分析的理论基础,从而为我国养老保险制度改革的制度设计、防控养老保险帐户风险提供了依据。%The flexible retirement system is one of the options of society endowment insurance system to deal with the aging. Therefore, the pension annuity under the system has important impact on theory and practice. This paper investigates the actuarial function of retirement annuity under the flexible retirement system. Under the hypothesis that the distribution of the retirement age is binomial distribution, the interest rate is decided by the discontinuous stochastic differential equations with jumps, and the death intensity is decided by Feller process with a jump. The formulas of the retirement annuity are proposed, including the life annuities, insurance, net premiums and insurance actuarial present value of second moment, and the sim-ulatived estimation for the relevant actuarial functions is derived. These formulas provide the basis of the actuarial analysis of insurance and balance insurance under the flexible retirement system, thus they can be applied for the old-age insurance system and control of risk pension account in China.

  12. Thoughts about Actuarial Undergraduate Education and Teaching in Fujian Colleges%福建省高校精算本科教育与教学的思考



    随着福建经济快速发展,对精算人才的需求越来越大,表现在福建省保险业的发展刺激保险精算人才的需求、福建省社会保障制度可持续健康的发展需要精算人才、金融机构风险管理技术的提升需要精算技术。为此,要提高对精算的宣传与认识,扩大精算本科招生规模、根据精算应用方向来设置课程、在教学上要从理论到实践,注重综合素质的培养、促进闽台两岸精算人才培养与合作,最终培养出适合市场需要精算复合型人才及促进福建省精算本科教育健康可持续发展。%With the rapid economic development in Fujian, the demand for actuarial talent is growing, showing in the development of the insurance industry in Fujian stimulating the actuarial talent needs, the sustainable and healthy development of the social security system in Fujian needing actuarial talent, the promotion of the financial institution risk management techniques requiring actuarial techniques. Therefore, improving actuarial propaganda and cognition, expanding the actuarial undergraduate enrollment, according to the actuarial application direction to set course plan, paying attention to the overall quality by training from theory to practice in teaching, promoting actuarial personnel training and cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan, eventually cultivating the compound actuarial talent in accordance with needs of the market, and promoting the actuarial undergraduate education’s healthy and sustainable development in Fujian.

  13. Capital offenders in Texas prisons: rates, correlates, and an actuarial analysis of violent misconduct.

    Cunningham, Mark Douglas; Sorensen, Jon R


    This study analyzed the records of 136 recently incarcerated capital murder offenders in the initial phase (M = 2.37 years, range = 6-40 months) of their life sentences in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Prevalence rates of institutional violence were inversely related to severity: potentially violent misconduct (36.8%), assaultive violations (14%), serious assaults (5.1%), and homicides (0%). Consistent with prior studies, factors correlated with assaultive misconduct included age (inversely), prior prison confinement, and concurrent robbery or burglary in the capital offense. A simplified Burgess scale entitled the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison-Capital (RASP-Cap) was moderately successful in identifying varying levels of improbability of committing violence-related misconduct however defined (AUC = .715-.766).


    Pedro Javier Budia Aldana


    Full Text Available La Ley 27/2011, de 1 de agosto, sobre actualización, adecuación y modernización del sistema de seguridad social, ha variado la escala de porcentajes aplicables a la base reguladora en función del número de años cotizados. Los nuevos porcentajes afectan a los trabajadores que se vayan a jubilar con periodos de cotización entre 15 y 37 años y, especialmente, a aquellos trabajadores cuyas pensiones sean bajas y puedan ser beneficiarios de complemento a mínimos. Estas variaciones, que se han ido produciendo en la escala de porcentajes a través de sucesivos cambios legislativos, han llevado al actuario a estudiar cuáles serían los porcentajes de equilibrio financiero-actuarial según el número de años cotizados y la edad de inicio en el mercado laboral para cubrir todas las pensiones que pueda causar el trabajador. The Law 27/2011 of 1 August, about updating, improvement and modernization of the social security system has changed the scale of percentages applicable to the regulatory base depending on the number of years of contributions. The new rates affect workers who are to retire on contribution periods between 15 and 37 years, and especially to those workers whose pensions are low and can receive minimum supplements. These variations, that have they occurred in the percentage scale through successive legislative changes, have led to the actuary to study what percentage of financial and actuarial balance would be according to the number of years of contributions and the age of onset in the labor market to cover all pensions that may cause the worker.

  15. Actuarial calculation on time value of money%资金时间价值的精算



    Interest is defined as compensation for money use,but the definition can not reflect its nature.In fact,interest is actual the compensation for time value of money.A class of actuarial calculation on time value of money is given from this point of view,which will do great help to understanding of actuarial science.%经济学中,利息被定义为在一定时间内使用他人或组织的资金而支付的报酬.这一定义没有反映利息的本质,没有说明支付上述报酬的原因及具体的计算方法.故认为:借方不仅要归还贷方的借贷资金,还要支付资金提早使用的时间价值,利息应该是资金的时间价值的折算,并且应有精算思想去讨论它的折算方法.

  16. Substance Abuse among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

    Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey


    There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has…

  17. 国内外高校精算教育的比较研究%The Comparative Study on Actuarial Education and Foreign Universities

    张薏; 李玮


    2010年12月14日,国际精算协会(IAA)接纳中国精算师协会(CAA)成为其第63位正式单位会员。2011年3月17日,中国精算师协会(CAA)与英国精算师协会(I&FA)签署了精算考试相互认可备忘录。这标志着中国精算师资格考试在通往国际化的道路上迈出了实质性的步伐,中国的精算教育正在逐步获得国际标准的认可。随着市场经济的发展,对精算教育的要求也会越来越高。高校教育只是精算教育的一个方面,只有与职业教育相配合,与业界共同努力,才能培养出优秀的精算专业人才。%In December 14,2010, International Actuarial Association (IAA) accepted China Association of Ac-tuaries(CAA) as its sixty- third formal members of units. In March 17,2011, CAA and the British Association of Actuaries (I&FA) signed a memorandum of mutual recognition of actuarial exams. This series of events undoubtedly marks the Chinese actuarial qualification examination has stepped materiality pace to the road of internationaliza- tion, and the Chinese actuarial education is gradually gaining the recognition of international standards. This paper compares the actuarial education development status m the domestic and foreign universities, analyzes some existing problems of the current college education in training plan, teaching practice, foreign exchange and other aspects in domestic, and puts forward some ideas to integration with the international actuarial education in the future.

  18. Properties of actuarially fair and pay-as-you-go health insurance schemes for the elderly. An OLG model approach.

    Johansson, P O


    The aged dependency ratio or ADR is growing at a fast pace in many countries. This fact causes stress to the economy and might create conflicts of interest between young and old. In this paper the properties of different health insurance systems for the elderly are analysed within an overlapping generations (OLG) model. The properties of actuarial health insurance and different variations of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) health insurance are compared. It turns out that the welfare properties of these contracts are heavily dependent on the economy's dynamic properties. Of particular importance is the magnitude of the rate of population growth relative to the interest rate. In addition, it is shown that public health insurance is associated with an inherent externality resulting in a second-best solution.

  19. Recursos tecnológicos y actividades no presenciales para un mejor aprendizaje de la Estadística Actuarial

    Antonio Fernández Morales


    Full Text Available En este artículo se describe el diseño y los resultados obtenidos con una estrategia didáctica innovadora para el aprendizaje de la Estadística Actuarial en la licenciatura de Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras de la Universidad de Málaga. Mediante un uso intensivo de actividades no presenciales y elementos tecnológicos que favorecen el aprendizaje en movilidad se pretende potenciar el aprendizaje autónomo, colaborativo y contextualizado. Para ello se han diseñado, entre otras, actividades de identificación y asimilación de competencias, un laboratorio virtual de supervivencia basado en un simulador gráfico interactivo y un microportal para dispositivos iPhone y iPod touch de Apple.


    Olga Gómez Pérez-Cacho


    Full Text Available La Ley 35/2015, de 22 de septiembre, establece un nuevo sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación, el cual incluye indemnizaciones cuya finalidad es compensar los perjuicios patrimoniales que sufren los perjudicados, ya se trate de lucro cesante o de daño emergente.Conforme a lo establecido en la propia Ley, las más relevantes de esas indemnizaciones requieren una valoración actuarial, siendo ese el caso de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona. El presente trabajo tiene por objeto analizar la metodología de valoración actuarial que, para esta indemnización, se incluye en las “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo” y los resultados que se obtienen en el marco de los principios y criterios que la Ley 35/2015 establece con carácter general para el sistema y, en particular, para dicha indemnización. The Law 35/2015, September 22nd, establishes a new system for valuation of traffic accident victims damages which includes compensations of economic damages (loss of income/profit or emerging damage. According to the Law, the more relevant of these compensations require actuarial valuation. The compensation for victims requiring third party aid is one of them. In this paper, we analyze the actuarial valuation methodology that the “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo” (Scale Actuarial Technical Basis set to calculate this compensation, as well as the assumed biometric, economic and financial hypothesis and the obtained results. The framework for this is the set of principles and criteria which the Law 35/2015 establishes in general for the system and in particular for this compensation.

  1. Modelo actuarial para estimar la tasa de interés justa/óptima de un financiamiento automotriz

    Robert Hernández Martínez


    Full Text Available El presente modelo actuarial de tasa de interés justa, pondera de manera equilibrada el precio del dinero - tanto para un prestamista, como para el solicitante - en donde ninguna de las partes resulta más beneficiada en perjuicio de la otra. De este modo, sea cual sea la elección del enganche y plazo que el cliente decida, siempre obtendrá el precio óptimo del financiamiento solicitado. La función Z = f(x,y representa a la variable de tasa de interés justa, en donde ambas partes tendrían una relación del tipo “ganar - ganar”; es decir, que ambas partes resultan mutuamente beneficiadas de la operación crediticia y en la cual ninguna de ellas obtiene ventaja en perjuicio de su contraparte. El precio justo del crédito automotriz se encuentra sobre la superficie de una gráfica de tres dimensiones cuyos puntos óptimos convergen en el vector (x,y,z; que determina la tasa de interés i, para un crédito sano. El diseño de un modelo computacional permite que el usuario interactúe con las variables de enganche y plazo, para conocer cómo influyen en el comportamiento de su crédito; tanto en el pago mensual, como en los intereses, impuestos y seguros; ofreciéndole una corrida financiera a lo largo del plazo contratado. Así, el modelo actuarial es totalmente dinámico ya que se adapta a los escenarios que se propongan. Corolario de lo anterior, resulta que cualquier punto fuera de la superficie óptima de la gráfica implicaría una ventaja/desventaja para alguna de las partes; por lo que el presente modelo permite realizar análisis de sensibilidad para tomar decisiones ANTES de celebrar la operación, considerando diferentes escenarios para las variables (x,y; de este modo, el modelo representa una herramienta de PREVISIÓN e incluso de PREVENCIÓN para la toma de mejores decisiones financieras.

  2. 中国精算的早期历史:从“Actuary”到“精算师”%The Early History of Chinese Actuarial Profession: From the Term of Actuary to Jingsuanshi (Accurate Calculating Master)



    术语“Actuary”于1775年出现于英国,用于命名人寿保险公司中一种特殊而关键的职务,这种职务逐渐形成一种专门职业.鸦片战争后,上海开埠,英商“永福人寿(Standard Life Assurance Co.)”和“永年人寿(China Mutual Life Insurance Co.)”于1898年在沪上设立(分)公司,两家公司的负责人都是英国的Actuary.之后的1912年,我国民族资本设立的人寿保险公司从上海发端,开始有中国人从事Actuary工作,并在上世纪三十年代初被称为“精算师”.1936年6月,上海保险同业公会设立“寿险精算委员会”,是我国第一个精算师职业团体.本文以此脉络梳理我国保险业的发展,还原我国精算师职业的真实历史和应有国际地位.

  3. Calculo y comparacion de la prima de un reaseguro de salud usando el modelo de opciones de Black-Scholes y el modelo actuarial

    Luis Eduardo Giron


    Full Text Available La presente investigación pretende calcular y comparar la prima de un reaseguro  usando el modelo de opciones de Black-Scholes y el modelo clásico actuarial tradicional. El período de análisis va desde enero de 2011 hasta diciembre de 2012. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el modelo de Black-Scholes, que se utiliza normalmente para valorar opciones financieras, puede ser también usado para la estimación de primas de reaseguros de salud; y que la prima neta estimada a partir de este modelo se aproxima a las establecidas por el método actuarial, excepto cuando el deducible del reaseguro es muy alto (por encima de $200.000.000.

  4. 保险精算课程内容设置的研究%The research about the teaching content setting of actuarial science course

    闫达文; 宋立新; 朱安妮


    For the setting of the actuarial science course′s teaching content proposed the principle that some parts should be extended and the others should be contracted conversely,and designed the three main lines of the teaching based on the principle.Within the short class period,this course could reveal systematically the application of the actuarial methods in the risk management of the financial institutions including insurance.Made the students hold the clear purpose and strong interest throughout leaning the actuarial course,improved the teaching effect and quality.%针对保险精算课程教学内容的设置,提出有“收”、有“放”原则,并依此设计了三条授课主线。在有限的课时内,系统地揭示精算方法在保险公司等金融机构风险管理中的运用过程,保证学生的学习目标始终明确,保持强烈的学习兴趣,从而提高了教学效果和质量。

  5. An Actuarial Model for Assessment of Prison Violence Risk Among Maximum Security Inmates

    Cunningham, Mark D.; Sorensen, Jon R.; Reidy, Thomas J.


    An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population…

  6. Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Validation of the German version of the Static-991

    Martin Rettenberger


    Full Text Available The Static-99 and the RRASOR are actuarial risk assessment tools for evaluating the risk of sexual and violent recidivism in sexual offenders. The Static-99 was developed in 1999 by Karl R. Hanson (Canada and David Thornton (Great Britain and is in the mean time regularly used for risk assessment in North America and some countries in Europe. The RRASOR can be described as a predecessor of the Static-99 and was published by Hanson in 1997. At first we translated the revised version of the Static-99 (Harris, Phenix, Hanson & Thornton, 2003 and adapted the instrument and the manual to the forensic context in Germany and Austria (Rettenberger & Eher, 2006. In this retrospective study, interrater reliability and concurrent validity of the RRASOR and of the German adaption of the Static-99 is presented. Furthermore we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 and the RRASOR and compared their results. The instruments were validated from file information of Austrian sexuel offenders, who were convicted between 1968 and 2002. Both the Static-99 and the RRASOR had good interrater reliability and concurrent validity. The Static-99 showed good predictive validity for general (r = .41, AUC = .74, sexual (r = .35, AUC = .74 and violent (r = .41, AUC = .76 recidivism, whereas the predictive accuracy of the RRASOR was moderate for general (r = .29, AUC = .66, sexual (r = .30, AUC = .68 and violent (r = .28, AUC = .67 recidivism. The Static-99 exhibited a higher accuracy for the prediction of sexual offender recidivism. Although further validation studies on German-speaking populations of sex offenders are necessary, these results support the utility of the German version of the revised version of the Static-99 in improving risk assessment of sexual offenders.

  7. Coherence and health care cost--RCA actuarial study: a cost-effectiveness cohort study.

    Bedell, Woody; Kaszkin-Bettag, Marietta


    Chronic stress is among the most costly health problems in terms of direct health costs, absenteeism, disability, and performance standards. The Reformed Church in America (RCA) identified stress among its clergy as a major cause of higher-than-average health claims and implemented HeartMath (HM) to help its participants manage stress and increase physiological resilience. The 6-week HM program Revitalize You! was selected for the intervention including the emWave Personal Stress Reliever technology. From 2006 to 2007, completion of a health risk assessment (HRA) provided eligible clergy with the opportunity to participate in the HM program or a lifestyle management program (LSM). Outcomes for that year were assessed with the Stress and Well-being Survey. Of 313 participants who completed the survey, 149 completed the Revitalize You! Program, and 164 completed the LSM. Well-being, stress management, resilience, and emotional vitality were significantly improved in the HM group as compared to the LSM group. In an analysis of the claims costs data for 2007 and 2008, 144 pastors who had participated in the HM program were compared to 343 non-participants (control group). Adjusted medical costs were reduced by 3.8% for HM participants in comparison with an increase of 9.0% for the control group. For the adjusted pharmacy costs, an increase of 7.9% was found compared with an increase of 13.3% for the control group. Total 2008 savings as a result of the HM program are estimated at $585 per participant, yielding a return on investment of 1.95:1. These findings show that HM stress-reduction and coherence-building techniques can reduce health care costs.

  8. Análisis Actuarial de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona prevista en la Ley 35/2015

    Gómez Pérez-Cacho, Olga; Moreno Ruiz, Rafael; Trigo Martínez, Eduardo


    La Ley 35/2015, de 22 de septiembre, establece un nuevo sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación, el cual incluye indemnizaciones cuya finalidad es compensar los perjuicios patrimoniales que sufren los perjudicados, ya se trate de lucro cesante o de daño emergente. Conforme a lo establecido en la propia Ley, las más relevantes de esas indemnizaciones requieren una valoración actuarial, siendo ése el caso de la indemnización ...

  9. Risk allocation in a public-private catastrophe insurance system : an actuarial analysis of deductibles, stop-loss, and premiums

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Dijkstra, T. K.


    A public-private (PP) partnership could be a viable arrangement for providing insurance coverage for catastrophe events, such as floods and earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to obtain insights into efficient and practical allocations of risk in a PP insurance system. In particular, this st

  10. Treatment referral for sex offenders based on clinical judgment versus actuarial risk assessment: match and analysis of mismatch

    Smid, W.J.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Wever, E.C.; van Beek, D.


    The Risk Need Responsivity (RNR) principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2010) dictate that higher risk sex offenders should receive more intensive treatment. The present study investigates how clinically based treatment assignment relates to risk level in a sex offender sample from The Netherlands. Correlatio

  11. Thoughts and some suggestions about actuarial science education in China colleges%对我国高校精算教育现状的思考与几点建议

    朱江红; 王金花


    总结了我国高校精算教育在扣多年的发展历程中所取得的成绩,分析了我国高校精算教育发展的现状,并对存在的一些问题提出了一些建议。%This article summarized the results of the developing of the actuarial science education of China colleges and,universities during the 2 decades, discussed the current situation of our actuarial science education, and provided some suggestions according to the problems.

  12. Tablas de vida para cálculo actuarial de rentas vitalicias y retiro programado. Costa Rica circa 2000

    Luis Rosero Bixby


    Full Text Available Se presentan las tablas completas de mortalidad de Costa Rica del periodo 1995- 2000 y se describe el procedimiento seguido en su estimación. Este procedimiento incluye una evaluación detallada de la información básica, especialmente de los errores censales de declaración de la edad entre los adultos mayores. Predominan los errores de exageración de la edad, los cuales inflan la población de edades avanzadas, especialmente de los 80 años en adelante. Por ejemplo, la población de 95 años y más de edad del censo está inflada en 22%. Las tablas de vida incluyen una extrapolación de la mortalidad para edades mayores de 100 años. Con una muestra de alrededor de 7 mil adultos mayores se determina que el patrón de mortalidad de los derecho-habientes de pensión es menor que el de la población general. La esperanza de vida al nacer de hombres y mujeres resultó de 74,6 y 79,4 años, respectivamente y a la edad 60 fue de 20,6 y 23,2 años, respectivamente, en toda la población de Costa Rica, y de 22,0 y 25,3 años entre los derecho-habientes de pensión. Para tomar en cuenta la disminución de la mortalidad que probablemente ocurrirá en el futuro en Costa Rica se recomienda usar la tabla de vida proyectada para 2020-25. Se seleccionó este periodo porque la esperanza de vida a la edad 65 es muy parecida a la estimada para la cohorte de nacidos en 1940, la cual se considera representativa de quienes se pensionarán en el corto y mediano plazo. Se presenta la tabla completa de 2020-25, corregida por la menor mortalidad de los derecho-habientes, para que sea utilizada en el cálculo actuarial de pensiones vitalicias y retiro programado en el periodo 2000-5. La esperanza de vida a la edad 60 en esta tabla resultó de 23,6 para los hombres y 26,8 para las mujeres, es decir, unos tres años más altas que las estimadas para la población de Costa Rica 1995-2000. Se recomienda actualizar estas estimaciones cada 5 años.

  13. Tablas de vida para cálculo actuarial de rentas vitalicias y retiro programado. Costa Rica circa 2000

    Rosero-Bixby, Luis


    Full Text Available Se presentan las tablas completas de mortalidad de Costa Rica del periodo 1995-2000 y se describe el procedimiento seguido en su estimación. Este procedimiento incluye una evaluación detallada de la información básica, especialmente de los errores censales de declaración de la edad entre los adultos mayores. Predominan los errores de exageración de la edad, los cuales inflan la población de edades avanzadas, especialmente de los 80 años en adelante. Por ejemplo, la población de 95 años y más de edad del censo está inflada en 22%. Las tablas de vida incluyen una extrapolación de la mortalidad para edades mayores de 100 años. Con una muestra de alrededor de 7 mil adultos mayores se determina que el patrón de mortalidad de los derecho-habientes de pensión es menor que el de la población general. La esperanza de vida al nacer de hombres y mujeres resultó de 74,6 y 79,4 años, respectivamente y a la edad 60 fue de 20,6 y 23,2 años, respectivamente, en toda la población de Costa Rica, y de 22,0 y 25,3 años entre los derecho-habientes de pensión. Para tomar en cuenta la disminución de la mortalidad que probablemente ocurrirá en el futuro en Costa Rica se recomienda usar la tabla de vida proyectada para 2020-25. Se seleccionó este periodo porque la esperanza de vida a la edad 65 es muy parecida a la estimada para la cohorte de nacidos en 1940, la cual se considera representativa de quienes se pensionarán en el corto y mediano plazo. Se presenta la tabla completa de 2020-25, corregida por la menor mortalidad de los derecho-habientes, para que sea utilizada en el cálculo actuarial de pensiones vitalicias y retiro programado en el periodo 2000-5. La esperanza de vida a la edad 60 en esta tabla resultó de 23,6 para los hombres y 26,8 para las mujeres, es decir, unos tres años más altas que las estimadas para la población de Costa Rica 1995-2000. Se recomienda actualizar estas estimaciones cada 5 años.

  14. Data Analysis Strategies and Designs for Substance Abuse Research. Research Issues 13.

    Bentler, Peter M., Ed.; And Others

    This volume contains 10 original papers discussing methodologies applicable to performing psychosocial research on substance abuse, particularly abuse with drugs. Eight data analysis strategies are discussed by the authors: automatic interaction detection, actuarial prediction, cluster and typological analysis, path analysis, factor analysis,…

  15. Research on Actuarial Models about Reform of Endowment Insurance about Institutional Organization in China%事业单位养老保险制度改革精算模型研究



    从中国事业单位养老保险改革实践出发,在西方寿险精算理论和精算模型基础上,分别建立事业单位养老保险制度改革过程中关于新人、中人和即将退休人员的养老保险精算模型。并分别给出关于新人、中人和即将退休人员的养老保险应由事业单位和政府财政需要补贴资金精算现值的计算公式。%Based on the practice of reform of endowment insurance about Institutional Organization in China , actuarial theory of life insurance and actuarial models in the West,actuarial models about the newcomer,men-in-service and retiring staff are set up respectively,and the actuarial present values of subsidy due to Institutional Or⁃ganization and Government fiscal revenue are given too,aiming at the purpose of providing the basis for the re-form.

  16. Homogeneous Beliefs and Mispricing of Black-Scholes Model Option Pricing Model Based on Actuarial Method%同质信念与 Black-Scholes 公式定价偏差--基于期权定价的保险精算方法∗

    柯政; 秦梦


    本文分析了包括 BS 的鞅方法在内的四种期权定价方法.Mogens Bldt 和郑红给出的保险精算定价方法是非套利定价,缺少足够的理论基础.另外,存在同质信念的市场上 BS 定价并非完全无套利,如果对不同股票进行分散化投资,只要基础资产种类足够多,也可套取利益.不同投资者的漂移率取同一常数μ体现了他们的同质信念,与弱有效的现实市场情况相符.进一步分析得出结论,即使存在同质信念,如果μt 是一个可料过程而非常数,会使得精算定价难以计算确定期望,从而无效.根据 SAS 软件的模拟结果,在同质信念下,精算套利定价显著高于 BS 鞅方法定价.通过恒生股指期权的实证检验,说明同质信念下的漂移率更适合取同一常数而不是可料过程,实证检验发现精算套利理论价格与实际价格差距很小,说明此方法比较有效.%This paper analyzed the four option pricing methods including the martingale method.Mogens Bldt and Hong Zheng gave actuarial pricing methods for options respectively,however,both of the methods are not non-arbitrage lack ade-quate theoretical basis.In addition,BS pricing method is not completely non-arbitrage,for diversified investment at different stock,as long as a sufficient number,may make profit.Moreover,the same drift of stock for different investors embodies homogeneous beliefs,which complies with weak efficient market assumption in real market.Further analysis concludes that,e-ven if homogeneous beliefs exist,the drift of stock could be a previsible process,which results in difficulty to calculate and de-termine the expectations in actuarial pricing and thus invalids the pricing in actuarial method.According to the simulation run by SAS,with homogeneous assumption,actuarial non-arbitrage pricing gives significantly higher price for options than BS. Through empirical test of the Hang Seng index options,the authors

  17. A Policy Analysis of Public School Retirement Systems

    Lewis, Tara; Teeter, Matt


    The purpose of this policy analysis was to examine the Missouri Public School Retirement System (PSRS). The team investigated the under-funding of PSRS, relating to sustainability and the feasibility of the system's use of one lever, contribution rate, to stabilize the retirement system, and to meet actuary needs and governmental requirements. The…

  18. Empirical Analysis of Retirement Pension and IFRS Adoption Effects on Accounting Information: Glance at IT Industry

    JeongYeon Kim


    Full Text Available This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm’s financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended.

  19. Empirical analysis of retirement pension and IFRS adoption effects on accounting information: glance at IT industry.

    Kim, JeongYeon


    This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm's financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended.

  20. Empirical Analysis of Retirement Pension and IFRS Adoption Effects on Accounting Information: Glance at IT Industry


    This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm's financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended. PMID:25013868

  1. Propuesta de formulación financiero-actuarial de un seguro de dependencia y acercamiento a una aplicación práctica

    Mª Manuela Segovia


    Full Text Available En los países industrializados, convergen dos fenómenos demográficos, la longevidad y la escasa natalidad, que provocan un envejecimiento de la población y con ello una serie de procesos sociales que son necesarios atender. Uno de ellos, es la cobertura de la dependencia de las personas mayores, entendiendo por dependencia, la necesidad de ayuda para realizar las tareas básicas de la vida diaria. España se encuentra en la actualidad en plena discusión parlamentaria para regular mediante ley la dependencia y cubrir el avance de este problema que en los próximos años se verá agravado por nuestra evolución demográfica y social. Esta ley pretende establecer las bases para su atención mediante un seguro de dependencia, bien de cobertura pública por parte del Estado o bien por aseguradoras privadas. El trabajo presentado en este congreso forma parte de un estudio amplio sobre la dependencia en España y abordará una aproximación a la formulación actuarial de un seguro de dependencia partiendo del uso de cadenas de Markov para un modelo de múltiples estados, y un acercamiento a la aplicación práctica mediante el análisis de datos sobre discapacidad de nuestro país.

  2. 机关事业单位基本养老保险的精算应计负债%Actuarial Accrued Liability of the Basic Old-age Insurance for Government and Public Institution Employees



    By establishing actuarial model through a parallelogram framework ,this paper measured the actuarial accrued liability of the basic old‐age insurance for government and public institution employees at the beginning of 2015 .Raising the re‐tirement age ,interest rate ,contribution rate and salary growth rate will decrease the actuarial accrued liability ,where the effect of the retirement age is very much strong and that of the interest rate is very strong .Raising the benefit yearly growth rate , work‐age salary growth rate and age‐linked‐benefit growth rate will increase the actuarial accrued liability ,where the effect of the benefit yearly growth rate is very strong ..To control the scale of actuarial accrued liability ,it is necessary to moderately postpone retirement ,to raise the yield rate of investment and salary grow th rate by innovations .With these measures ,the con‐tribution rate can be reduced .%通过养老金测算的平行四边形框架建立养老保险的精算模型应计负债,测算机关事业单位基本养老保险在2015年初的精算应计负债。提高退休年龄、利率、缴费率和工资增长率都会降低精算应计负债,退休年龄的影响非常强,利率的影响也很强。提高养老金增长率、工龄工资增长率和同年度养老金随年龄增长率都会增加精算应计负债,养老金增长率的影响很强。为控制机关事业单位基本养老保险精算应计负债,可适时适度提高退休年龄,创造条件提高投资收益率,通过全社会创新提高社会生产力来提高工资增长率,与此同时可降低缴费率。

  3. CIMPA-UNESCO-MESR-MINECO-MOROCCO research school entitled Statistical Methods and Applications in Finance and Actuarial Science

    Essaky, El; Vives, Josep


    This book is the outcome of the CIMPA School on Statistical Methods and Applications in Insurance and Finance, held in Marrakech and Kelaat M'gouna (Morocco) in April 2013. It presents two lectures and seven refereed papers from the school, offering the reader important insights into key topics. The first of the lectures, by Frederic Viens, addresses risk management via hedging in discrete and continuous time, while the second, by Boualem Djehiche, reviews statistical estimation methods applied to life and disability insurance. The refereed papers offer diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on subjects including optimal control, financial modeling using stochastic differential equations, pricing and hedging of financial derivatives, and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter of the volume includes a comprehensive bibliography to promote further research.

  4. The Accuracy of Recidivism Risk Assessments for Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of 118 Prediction Studies

    Hanson, R. Karl; Morton-Bourgon, Kelly E.


    This review compared the accuracy of various approaches to the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. On the basis of a meta-analysis of 536 findings drawn from 118 distinct samples (45,398 sexual offenders, 16 countries), empirically derived actuarial measures were more accurate than unstructured professional judgment for all outcomes…

  5. 一种利率双随机条件下的有序状态寿险精算模型%One Actuarial Models of Orderly Life Insurance under the Condition of Dual Random Interest Rate



    有序状态的联合寿险依赖于多个被保险人的死亡顺序,与一般的联合寿险相比具有一定的复杂性.本文研究联合生命保险中有序条件的复合状态寿险精算函数,对利率采用反射Brownian运动和Poisson过程的双随机模型及死亡均匀分布假设下的一种联合投保有序条件的复合状态建模,给出了生命年金、保险金、纯保费精算现值及保险金的二阶矩的表达式.运用这些表达式可以对联合投保有序状态的保险损失风险进行分析.%Joint life insurance of orderly compound status depends on the death order of the insured persons. As compared with the general insurances, it is of more complexity to a certain extent. This paper investigates the actuarial function of joint life insurance of orderly compound status. Both reflected standard Brownian motion and Possion process are used to model the stochastic interest rates and further it is employed to construct the actuarial model. The formulas of joint life insurance of compound status are proposed, including the life annuities, insurance, actuarial present value of net premiums and second moments of insurance. Based on the formulas so proposed, the loss risk of the joint life insurance of orderly compound status can reasonably be analyzed.

  6. Diseño, desarrollo, e implementación de una hoja electrónica para el análisis y cálculo actuarial

    Falcones Collantes, Eduardo Xavier; Sandoya Sanchez, Fernando


    En el presente artículo se presenta a breves rasgos el diseño e implementación de una hoja electrónica actuarial para el análisis de modelos de seguros y rentas, a través de sus valores actuariales, así como para el cálculo de primas netas de inventario y comercial con sus reservas respectivas para distintos planes actuariales, desarrollado bajo el lenguaje de programación Visual Basic 6.0 incluidas las herramientas que este presenta para la creación de componentes de código Active X....

  7. The Determination of Pension Levels for Urban Residents in Zhejiang Province by Actuarial Model%精算模型对浙江省城镇居民社会养老保险水平的测定



    The current situation of social old-age insurance level for urban residents of Zhejiang Province were expounded and actuarial model was used to analyze reasons of "low" social old-age insurance level, and suggestions for social old-age insurance level were put forward.%阐述了浙江省城镇居民社会养老保险水平现状及精算模型对社会养老保险水平“低度”原因分析,并提出提高社会养老保险水平的建议.

  8. Research on Actuarial Present Value of Inheritance Annuity under Different Dependent Structure%相依情形下继承年金精算现值的研究

    张兵强; 陶菊春


    Based on dependent multi-life status,actuarial present value of the husband and wife joint inheritance annuity,the son to father's endowment type inheritance annuity and the father to the children raisin type inheritance annuity was studied.The effects of individual dependence to life was analysed by basis of comonotonicity,and the dependences of individual life was settled by using Copula function,finally the husband and wife joint heritance annuity was studied.The research result indicates that dependency degree of the individual life has important influence for inheritance annuity actuarial present value,the individual dependency degree more high,inheritance annuity actuarial present value is small,especially,in the individual life remaining independent of each other,inheritance annuity actuarial present value obtained maximal.%在多生命状态各个体剩余寿命相依的情形下,研究了夫妻联合型继承年金、子对父的养老型继承年金和父对子的抚养型继承年金的精算现值.本文主要利用同单调关系讨论了个体之间的相依关系对其寿命的影响,进而利用Copula函数处理了个体生命间的相依性,最后通过实例研究了夫妻联合型继承年金.研究结果表明:个体生命间的相依性程度对继承年金精算现值有着重要影响,个体间相依性程度越高,继承年金的精算现值越小,特别地,在个体剩余寿命相互独立时,继承年金的精算现值达到极大.

  9. Life insurance theory actuarial perspectives

    Vylder, F Etienne


    This book is different from all other books on Life Insurance by at least one of the following characteristics 1-4. 1. The treatment of life insurances at three different levels: time-capital, present value and price level. We call time-capital any distribution of a capital over time: (*) is the time-capital with amounts Cl, ~, ... , C at moments Tl, T , ..• , T resp. N 2 N For instance, let (x) be a life at instant 0 with future lifetime X. Then the whole oO oO life insurance A is the time-capital (I,X). The whole life annuity ä is the x x time-capital (1,0) + (1,1) + (1,2) + ... + (I,'X), where 'X is the integer part ofX. The present value at 0 of time-capital (*) is the random variable T1 T TN Cl V + ~ v , + ... + CNV . (**) In particular, the present value ofA 00 and ä 00 is x x 0 0 2 A = ~ and ä = 1 + v + v + ... + v'X resp. x x The price (or premium) of a time-capital is the expectation of its present value. In particular, the price ofA 00 and äx 00 is x 2 A = E(~) and ä = E(I + v + v + ... + v'X...

  10. Actuarial considerations on genetic testing.

    Le Grys, D J


    In the UK the majority of life insurers employ relatively liberal underwriting standards so that people can easily gain access to life assurance cover. Up to 95% of applicants are accepted at standard terms. If genetic testing becomes widespread then the buying habits of the public may change. Proportionately more people with a predisposition to major types of disease may take life assurance cover while people with no predisposition may take proportionately less. A model is used to show the possible effect. However, the time-scales are long and the mortality of assured people is steadily improving. The change in buying habits may result in the rate of improvement slowing down. In the whole population, the improvement in mortality is likely to continue and could improve faster if widespread genetic testing results in earlier diagnosis and treatment. Life insurers would not call for genetic tests and need not see the results of previous tests except for very large sums assured. In the UK, life insurers are unlikely to change their underwriting standards, and are extremely unlikely to bring in basic premium rating systems that give discounts on the premium or penalty points according to peoples genetic profile. The implications of widespread genetic testing on medical insurance and some health insurance covers may be more extreme.

  11. 大学生科研训练与保险精算类课程教学的实践%Practice of Scientific Training for Undergraduates and Teaching in Actuarial Curriculum

    史敬涛; 陈建良


    本文结合大学生科研训练项目的开展,针对数学专业本科生的自身特点,对保险精算类课程的教学模式和方法进行了分析探讨。实践表明,数学专业本科生保险精算类课程体系的建设刚刚起步,是一项长期和艰巨的工作,迫切需要越来越多的既有扎实数学理论基础又熟悉金融保险实际业务的教师和从业人员的共同努力。%In this paper,combined with the development of scientific training project for undergraduates,we analyze and discuss the teaching patterns and methods of actuarial curriculum with respect to the characteristics of undergraduates majoring in mathematics.Practice shows that the construction of actuarial curriculum for undergraduates majoring in mathematics has just started and it is a longtime and hard work.Joint efforts of more and more teachers and practitioners who not only have strong basis of mathematical theory,but also know well the real practice of financial and insurance are imminently needed.

  12. Actuarial Analysis of Influence on Inflation to Life Insurances%通货膨胀对寿险影响的精算分析




  13. 精算数学教学中的问题分析与对策研究%Problem Analysis and Strategies in Teaching Actuarial Mathematics




  14. Quantitative Analysis of Papers in the Field of Actuary%国内精算研究文献的定量分析

    刘婧; 华薇娜



  15. 随机利率下的反向抵押贷款精算定价模型研究%Actuarial Pricing Models of Reverse Mortgage with the Stochastic Interest Rate

    贾念念; 赵雪; 杨文荟


    反向抵押贷款是应对养老问题的一个创新模式。本文为改进传统反向抵押贷款定价模型必须建立在固定利率基础之上的缺点,利用Wiener过程和负二项分布对利息力积累函数进行联合建模,构建了随机利率下的反向抵押贷款精算定价模型及死亡均匀分布(UDD)假设下随机利率反向抵押贷款精算定价模型。最后,本文运用Matlab软件对随机利率下精算定价模型进行数值测算,比较了不同参数的变化对贷款额的影响程度,得到随机利率下的反向抵押贷款精算定价模型对借款人具有一定的吸引力、贷款利率较房产价值年均升值率和房产折旧率更敏感、递增年金模型受贷款利率变动影响较小等结论。上述结论为我国反向抵押贷款的政策制定与定价提供了一定的理论依据。%The reverse mortgage is a creative measure to support the aged people. for improving shortcomings that the traditional reverse mortgage loan pricing model must be established on the basis of fixed interest rate, this paper builds the united model of accumulation function of interest force by process and negative-binomial distribution, and constructs reverse mortgages actuarial pricing model under the stochastic interest rate and the stochastic interest rate reverse actuarial pricing model under UDD assumption. Finally, this paper uses the Matlab software to change different parameters of actuarial pricing model under stochastic interest rate influence on the degree of the loan, it is concluded that the conclusion of the model is in line with the actual situation, therefore, it has important practical significance to study stochastic interest rate reverse mortgage loan pricing model.

  16. Análisis actuarial del fondo de jubilación de los empleados civiles de la comisión de tránsito de la provincia del Guayas

    Duran Vinueza, Walter; Perez, Werhli


    El presente estudio tiene por objeto analizar la situación financiera actual del Fondo de Jubilación de los empleados civiles de la Comisión de Tránsito de la Provincia del Guayas. No sin antes, describir los sistemas de pensiones públicos y privados y la aplicación de los mismos, en diferentes países de América, incluyendo al Ecuador y los aspectos legales que sustentan la seguridad pública social en dicho país. Así mismo, se ofrece un marco teórico actuarial de los modelos de pensiones y se...

  17. 分数跳-扩散O-U过程下幂型期权定价%Actuarial approach to power option pricing under fractional jump-diffusion O-U process

    符双; 薛红


    This paper assumed that stock price followed the fractional jump-diffusion O-U process, and the riskless interest rate and the volatility rate of stock were time function.The power option pricing model was presented by an actuarial approach.The call option and put option pricing formulae of power option were obtained.%假设股票价格遵循分数跳-扩散O-U过程,且无风险利率和股票波动率均为时间的确定性函数,利用保险精算的方法,建立了分数跳扩散O-U过程下的幂型期权定价模型,获得了幂型期权的看涨和看跌定价公式。

  18. Nonparametric Bayesian Inference for Mean Residual Life Functions in Survival Analysis

    Poynor, Valerie; Kottas, Athanasios


    Modeling and inference for survival analysis problems typically revolves around different functions related to the survival distribution. Here, we focus on the mean residual life function which provides the expected remaining lifetime given that a subject has survived (i.e., is event-free) up to a particular time. This function is of direct interest in reliability, medical, and actuarial fields. In addition to its practical interpretation, the mean residual life function characterizes the sur...

  19. 基于随机利率和多生命体相依的联合保险精算模型%Combined InsuranceActuarial Model under Stochastic Interest Rate and Dependent Lifetime



    By simulating mortality rate through Common Shock model and describing the term struc-ture of interest rate with Wiener process,an actuarial model for family combined insurance under stochastic interest rate and dependent life time is designed.Then,the theoretical formulas of the balanced premium are obtained,on the condition that the death happens uniformly in tail age,the approximate methods are given which are feasible in insurance practices.Finally,influences of stochastic interest rate and death rate to insurance pricing are analyzed.%采用 Common Shock 模型模拟死亡率,并用 Wiener 过程刻画利率期限结构,构建了基于随机利率和生命体相依的联合保险的纯保费精算模型。在此基础上,导出均衡年保费的理论计算公式,并在尾部年龄服从均匀分布的假设下,给出保险实务操作中可行的近似计算方法。最后,通过数值模拟分析了随机利率、死亡率对保险定价的影响。


    Luis María Sáez de Jáuregui Sanz


    Full Text Available En este trabajo se analizan y se contextualizan los aspectos de índole actuarial y de seguridad social recogidos en la Ley 35/2015 de reforma del sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación. Los preliminares de la Ley 35/2015 comienzan en 2011 con la creación de una Comisión de Expertos. A partir de ahí, se inicia un proceso que culmina, en primer lugar, en 2014 en Junta Consultiva de Seguros y Fondos de Pensiones con la entrega de un Texto articulado, unas Tablas de indemnización y unas Bases técnicas actuariales que configuran un nuevo y novedoso sistema de valoración y que termina de finalizar –tras su trámite parlamentario con prácticamente nulas modificaciones en lo fundamental– con la entrada en vigor el 1 de enero de 2016 de la Ley 35/2015, recogiéndose por primera vez en el ordenamiento jurídico español un modelo actuarial para indemnizar el lucro cesante y el daño emergente. This paper analyzes and contextualizes the actuarial and social security features of the brand new Law 35/2015 of reform for assessing the damage caused to people in road accidents. Preliminaries of the Law 35/2015 began in 2011 with the creation of a Committee of Experts. From there, a process, culminated first in 2014, in the Advisory Board of Insurance and Pension Funds with the delivery of an articulated text, tables compensation and the actuarial technical bases that form a new and novel assessment system, and ended -after the end of its parliamentary process with virtually no changes in fundamentally- with the entry into force, on January 1st of 2016, of the Law 35/2015, introducing for the first time in the Spanish legal system an actuarial model to compensate people for loss of profits and its consequential damages.

  1. Multiple Attenuation Model and Actuarial Present Value of Pension Scheme Based on CIR Interest Rate%基于CIR利率的养老金计划多元衰减模型与精算现值

    李浩; 侯为波; 张增林


    随着我国人口老年化问题的日趋加剧,养老金计划对于老年人口的生活保障愈显得重要。寿险精算理论在科学合理制定保险产品价格方面至关重要。利率是影响价格的最重要因素之一。从长期来看,利率随时间的变化而波动,具有很强的随机波动性。文章考虑利用具有随机波动特性的CIR利率模型,建立养老金多元衰减模型,进而获得延期年金的精算现值解析式。%With the problem of astogeny getting worse,pension schemes are even more vital to the liv⁃ing security of the old. The theory of life contingencies plays an important role in setting the scientif⁃ic and reasonable prices of insurance products. The rate of interest is one of the key factors that af⁃fect prices. In the long run, the rate of interest fluctuates with time going by, enjoying strong and random volatility. To establish the multiple attenuation pattern of pension, the authors consider using the pattern of the rate of interest characterized by random and fluctuant CIR,and then gain the formu⁃la of actuarial present value of deferred annuity.

  2. 任意支撑上5阶凸随机序的极值分布及其在保险精算中的应用%Extremal distributions for 5-convex stochastic orderings with arbitrary discrete support and applications in actuarial sciences

    田有功; 刘转玲


    在离散的5阶凸随机序意义下,研究了在R+上的任意离散子集上取值的随机变量的极值分布①。在保险精算应用中,估计了Lunberg调整系数的界。%In the sense of discrete 5-convex stochastic ordering, the extremal distribution for random variables valued in an arbitrary discrete subset of the half-positive real line R+was considered.The bounds of Lundberg’s adjustment coef-ficient in actuarial sciences were estimated.

  3. Actuarial Evaluation of the Financial Operation Situation of China's Basic Medical Insurance System%中国基本医疗保险制度财务运行状况的精算评估

    曾益; 任超然; 李媛媛


    人口老龄化的加剧可能会恶化我国城镇职工医疗保险制度的财务状况。文章在相关参数假设的基础上通过精算模型评估发现,虽然城镇职工医疗保险个人账户累计余额逐年增加,但是在2025年统筹基金将会收不抵支,收支差为-102.11亿元,这一差值还会逐年扩大,至2033年累计结余会使用完毕。针对以上状况,文章在评估了几种改善统筹基金财务状况的政策方案后发现,个人账户与统筹基金合并能将收不抵支和出现赤字的年份推迟到2034年和2046年,这一方案优于其他方案。%The increasing population aging may worsen the financial sit uation of China's urban resident basic medical insurance system. Based on the hypothesis of related parameters and the actuarial evaluation models, this paper finds that the accumulated amount of the urban resident medical sav ings accounts increases year by year, but the income of the pooling fund will not balance the expense in 2025; the gap between income and expenditure is -10. 211 billion yuan and as the gap will gradually widen, the accumulated amount of the pooling fund will be used up in 2033. After evaluating some policy options of improving the financial status of the pooling fund, this pa per shows that the integration of individual medical savings accounts and pooling fund can postpone the time of income over expenditure until 2034 and the time of deficit until 2046, so it is better than other policy options.

  4. Life Insurance Actuarial Model with Returnable Premium



    Insurance is the important aspect of finance. It has been fully developed in the western developed countries. With the fast development of market economy in our country,it is necessary to introduce the alien modern theories and techniques, and at the same time,adapt them to our concrete situation. The model of general life insurance product is to be established in this paper, including deferred life annuities, increasing whole life insurance and returnable premiums. Then through the regulation of various parameters, we can obtain various insurance products.

  5. Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

    Christos E. Kountzakis


    Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

  6. A Quasi Actuarial Prospect for Individual Assessment.

    Owens, William A.

    A conceptual model of individual assessment through the use of biodata responses with minimal input information is outlined. The process is considered especially applicable to industrial psychology. A scored autobiographical data form, which measures the individual's past behavior and experiences, provides for assignment to a specific subgroup…

  7. Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

    M.J. Goovaerts; R.J.A. Laeven


    We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the Esscher

  8. Idade de aparecimento e desaparecimento das pontas rolândicas em 160 crianças acompanhadas ambulatorialmente: estudo atuarial Age of appearance and disappearance of rolandic spikes of 160 children: an actuarial study



    Full Text Available PROPOSTA: Determinar a idade em que surgem e desaparecem as pontas rolândicas (PR em traçados eletrencefalográficos de rotina. MÉTODO: Estudo prospectivo hospitalar, baseado em 412 eletrencefalogramas de 160 crianças que frequentaram o ambulatório de neuropediatria entre as idades de 1 e 16 anos, no período de março de 1989, a março de 1998. Usou-se o sistema 10/20 para colocação dos eletrodos. As crianças foram dividas, por idade, em quatro grupos (1 a 4; 5 a 8; 9 a 16; 1 a 16 e usou-se o método de curva atuarial, considerando-se como evento, o desaparecimento da PR. RESULTADOS: PR teve distribuição entre meninos e meninas na razão de 64/36. A idade média em que surgiu a PR foi 7 anos (7,2 para homens e 6,6 para mulheres e, num pequeno grupo de crianças que tinha EEG normal anterior ao surgimento da PR, a idade média foi 6,8 anos. Após 7 anos de seguimento, a percentagem de pacientes livres de PRs era 60% para o grupo de 1 a 4 anos na admissão, 84% para os grupos de 5 a 8 anos e 9 a 16 anos. Para o grupo total (1 a 16 anos a percentagem de livres de PR, após 7 anos de seguimento, foi 78%. CONCLUSÃO: O estudo mostra que as PR surgiram, em média, aos 7 anos e têm probabilidade de desaparecimento até 7 anos de seguimento, independetemente da faixa etária de aparecimento.This study aims to determine the age at which the rolandic spikes (RS appear and disappear in routine EEGs. METHOD: It has been carried out a hospital based prospective study of 412 EEGs records of 160 children who had been assisted at the neuropediatric out-patient department during the period between March, 1989 and March,1998. Recordings were made on 8-channel instruments and 10/20 system has been to place the electrodes. The children have been divided into 4 groups, according to their age (1 to 4; 5 to 8; 9 to 16; 1 to 16, and the actuarial curve method has been used to show the disappearance of the rolandic spikes. RESULTS: RS distribution between

  9. The Nuremberg mind redeemed: a comprehensive analysis of the Rorschachs of Nazi war criminals.

    Resnick, M N; Nunno, V J


    We examined a blind, actuarial analysis of the Rorschach data of the Nuremberg war criminals (NWC) using Exner's (1974) Comprehensive System in an attempt to prove the convergence of the NWC construct along dimensions of psychological (personality) functioning and to prove its discriminability from other appropriate psychiatric and nonpsychiatric comparison groups. The weaknesses of previous research methodologies are examined and discussed vis-à-vis the historical and theoretical developments of the concepts of authoritarianism, dogmatism, obedience to authority, and the development of the Rorschach Inkblot Technique.

  10. An Actuarial Analysis of Implicit Debt Problems of the Current Public Pension System%养老保险金稳性债务问题的精算分析

    刘楚源; 陈岱婉



  11. Risk-Adjusted Analysis of Relevant Outcome Drivers for Patients after More Than Two Kidney Transplants

    Lampros Kousoulas


    Full Text Available Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients suffering end-stage renal disease, but as the long-term renal allograft survival is limited, most transplant recipients will face graft loss and will be considered for a retransplantation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the patient and graft survival of the 61 renal transplant recipients after second or subsequent renal transplantation, transplanted in our institution between 1990 and 2010, and to identify risk factors related to inferior outcomes. Actuarial patient survival was 98.3%, 94.8%, and 88.2% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Actuarial graft survival was 86.8%, 80%, and 78.1% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Risk-adjusted analysis revealed that only age at the time of last transplantation had a significant influence on patient survival, whereas graft survival was influenced by multiple immunological and surgical factors, such as the number of HLA mismatches, the type of immunosuppression, the number of surgical complications, need of reoperation, primary graft nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, third and subsequent renal transplantation constitute a valid therapeutic option, but inferior outcomes should be expected among elderly patients, hyperimmunized recipients, and recipients with multiple operations at the site of last renal transplantation.

  12. Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple contracts

    Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Marín, A.M.


    Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (e.g. fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have

  13. Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple policies

    Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Martín, A.M.


    Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (eg fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have ma

  14. Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    Kulkarni, V G


    This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

  15. Prognostic factors for relapse in stage I seminoma managed by surveillance: a pooled analysis

    Warde, Padraig; Specht, Lena; Horwich, Alan


    , and tumor invasion into small vessels [SVI]) as well as age at diagnosis were analyzed for prognostic importance for relapse. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 7.0 years (range, 0.02 to 17.5 years), 121 relapses were observed for an actuarial 5-year relapse-free rate (RFR) of 82.3%. On univariate analysis......PURPOSE: Several management options are available to patients with stage I seminoma, including adjuvant radiotherapy, surveillance, and adjuvant chemotherapy. We performed a pooled analysis of patients from the four largest surveillance studies to better delineate prognostic factors associated......, tumor size (RFR: 4 cm, 76%; P =.003), rete testis invasion (RFR: 86% [absent] v 77% [present], P =.003), and the presence of SVI (RFR: 86% [absent] v 77% [present], P =.038) were predictive of relapse. On multivariate analysis, tumor size ( 4 cm, hazard ratio 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 3...

  16. On the Application of Actuarial Techniques in the Teaching of Social Security Fund Management--A Case Study of Pension Fund%精算技术在社会保险基金管理课程教学中的应用--以养老保险为例

    李锐; 杨雷; 刘倩


    Social security fund management is a core curriculum of public management major, is the foundation of the labor and social security curriculum system, is also the skill that students are supposed to master. Case study is on the top of the list. However because of shortage of tools, the course has always been taught by delivering concept. The paper introduces actuarial technique into the course teaching of social security fund management, and improves the curriculum system by combining with the related teaching cases, which can be a good combination of theory and practice.%社会保险基金管理是公共管理核心基础课程之一,是整个劳动与社会保障课程体系的基础,并且是公共管理专业学生必须掌握的专业技能。如何更好地开展该课程的案例教学,是该课程的首要任务,因为缺乏必要的分析工具,一直以来使得该课程以传授基本概念为主。本文将精算技术引入社会保险基金管理课程教学中,并结合养老保险条例开发了相关教学案例,从内容上丰富了该课程体系,并将理论与实务紧密地结合了起来。

  17. 河北省被征地农民养老保险替代率的测算与分析%A Calculation and Analysis on the Replacement Rate of the Pension of Security System for Land-expropriated Peasants in Hebci Province

    李佳; 陈世金


    河北省被征地农民基本养老保险制度自2005年颁布以来,根据缴费方式及待遇领取的不同,可以将其分为“精算型”被征地农民养老保险制度和“低保型”被征地农民养老保险制度。根据这两种制度缴费方式及养老金待遇调整的特点,构建了两种制度下养老保险替代率的精算模型,结合灰色预测模型GM(1,1)及计量经济学的原理对相关数据进行处理,并分别用石家庄市和秦皇岛市数据进行两种精算模型的实证分析,得出从长期看“低保型”被征地农民保险制度设计的养老金替代率水平要高于“精算型”的替代率的结论,根据模型分析结果给出结论及相关建议。%Since the pension of security system for land-expropriatod peasants in Hebei province has been promulgate in 2005, according to the diversity of paying the fee and receiving pension, it can be divided into "Actuarial-Type" and "Minimum Standard Type" of the pension of security system for land-expropriated peasants. This paper builds the replacement rate of pension actuarial model under the two systems. Combining the gray prediction model GM ( 1, 1 ) and econometric knowledge of the relevant data processing, and using actuarial data for empirical analysis of the mod- el in Shijiazhuang and Qinhuangdao City, it has been concluded that from the long term, "actuarial-type" system for land-exprepriated peasants is lower than "Minimum Standard Type" of the replacement rate of the conclusions. Final- ly, the paper gives conclusions and recommendations according to the model analysis.

  18. 29 CFR 4010.8 - Plan actuarial information.


    ... contributions used to increase such balances); (ix) A list of amortization bases (shortfall and waiver) under ERISA section 303 and Code section 430, including the year each base was established, the original... measurement date assuming A retires at age 58 and elects to have benefits commence immediately. Since A...

  19. Fare actuarial algorithm%票价精算法



    @@ 要科学、准确地核算公交票价,确非易事,因为变数太多.原材料价格、零配件价格、人工费用及客流量等都随市场的变化而变化.但从统计学的观点看,不管怎么变,在一定的时间段内,总有其变化的趋势和幅度,也就是说,在某一计算时间上,可以精确地计算出票价.如果考虑各种变化的趋势和幅度,可以比较准确地计算出某一时段的公交票价.

  20. Quants at the Gate: The Unique Education of Actuaries

    Halfond, Jay A.; Horwitz, Lois K.


    An academic discipline and a profession eventually converge through the relationship, division of labor and trust between universities and professional associations--and their mutual respect for the authority and the respective roles of one another. Sometimes, professional associations evaluate academic programs or even provide an examination at…

  1. The Evolution of an Undergraduate Actuarial Mathematics Program

    Kennedy, Kristin; Schumacher, Phyllis


    Bryant University was originally a school for business majors and offered only a few mathematics courses. After becoming accredited by the New England Association of Colleges and Universities in the 1960s, the college was required to upgrade its offerings in the area of mathematics. In the 1970s, the department offerings were increased to include…

  2. The Actuarial Turn in the Science of Learning Disabilities

    Danforth, Scot


    In the mid-1970s, Donald Hammill and his colleagues authored three scathing critiques of the two most trusted scientific traditions of learning disability treatment--movement education and psycholinguistic training (Hammill, 1972; Hammill & Larsen, 1974; Hammill, Goodman, & Wiederholt, 1974). These critical reviews of research rejected the older…

  3. Survivorship analysis of pedicle spinal instrumentation.

    McAfee, P C; Weiland, D J; Carlow, J J


    Between 1985 and 1989, the senior author performed 120 consecutive pedicle instrumentation cases--78 Steffee (VSP) procedures and 42 procedures using Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation. Posterolateral or posterior fusions using autogenous iliac bone graft were performed across the instrumented vertebrae in all cases. Survivorship analysis was used to calculate a predicted cumulative rate of success for this series of patients over 10 years postoperative follow-up. The criteria of failure of pedicular instrumentation or "death" of an implant were defined as 1) screw bending, 2) screw breakage, 3) infection, 4) loosening of implants, 5) any rod or plate hardware problems, or 6) removal of hardware due to a neurologic complication. Out of 526 pedicle screws (175 Cotrel-Dubousset screws, 351 VSP screws) there were 22 problem screws (22/526 = 4.18%). Six screws had bent, none were infected, 16 screws had broken, and none were loose. The 22 problem screw events occurred in 12 patients. In seven patients, the instrumentation failure was an incidental radiographic finding, in that patients had a solid posterolateral fusion. The remaining five patients had screw breakage in association with a pseudarthrosis. Life table calculations predicted the survivorship of instrumentation without complications would be 80% at 10 years postoperative follow-up. Actuarial analysis predicted the survivorship of solid posterolateral fusion at 90% at 10 years follow-up. This survivorship rate is similar to those predicted at 10 years follow-up for other more widely used orthopedic surgical implants such as total hip arthroplasty components.

  4. Analysis

    Maurin, Krzysztof


    The extraordinarily rapid advances made in mathematics since World War II have resulted in analysis becoming an enormous organism spread­ ing in all directions. Gone for good surely are the days of the great French "courses of analysis" which embodied the whole of the "ana­ lytical" knowledge of the times in three volumes-as the classical work of Camille Jordan. Perhaps that is why present-day textbooks of anal­ ysis are disproportionately modest relative to the present state of the art. More: they have "retreated" to the state before Jordan and Goursat. In recent years the scene has been changing rapidly: Jean Dieudon­ ne is offering us his monumentel Elements d'Analyse (10 volumes) written in the spirit of the great French Course d'Analyse. To the best of my knowledge, the present book is the only one of its size: starting from scratch-from rational numbers, to be precise-it goes on to the theory of distributions, direct integrals, analysis on com­ plex manifolds, Kahler manifolds, the theory of sheave...

  5. Analysis

    Abdelazeem, Maha; El-Sawy, El-Sawy K.; Gobashy, Mohamed M.


    Ar Rika fault zone constitutes one of the two major parts of the NW-SE Najd fault system (NFS), which is one of the most prominent structural features located in the east of the center of the Arabian Shield, Saudi Arabia. By using Enhancement Thematic Mapper data (ETM+) and Principle Component Analysis (PCA), surface geological characteristics, distribution of rock types, and the different trends of linear features and faults are determined in the study area. First and second order magnetic gradients of the geomagnetic field at the North East of Wadi Ar Rika have been calculated in the frequency domain to map both surface and subsurface lineaments and faults. Lineaments as deduced from previous studies, suggest an extension of the NFS beneath the cover rocks in the study area. In the present study, integration of magnetic gradients and remote sensing analysis that resulted in different valuable derivative maps confirm the subsurface extension of some of the surface features. The 3D Euler deconvolution, the total gradient, and the tilt angle maps have been utilized to determine accurately the distribution of shear zones, the tectonic implications, and the internal structures of the terranes in the Ar Rika quadrangle in three dimensions.

  6. Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.


    The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

  7. Research on the Sustainable Development of Individual Account Pension System—An Analysis Based on Representative Individual Actuarial Balance%个人账户养老金制度可持续发展问题研究——基于代表性个体精算平衡的分析




  8. The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook


    growth of their costs in some other way. A recent analysis by the CMS actuaries indicates that 48. As discussed earlier, Medicare’s payment rates for...projections for some categories of spending with projections for other categories developed by the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare...year’s analysis (see Figure B-4). The 75-year actuarial deficit currently projected for Social Security, 4.0 percent of taxable payroll, is greater

  9. Comparing Military Retirement to the California Highway Patrol Pension Plan


    the 2012 Actuarial Cost Analysis performed by CalPERS (Glazier, 2012) . DOD promotion estimates are based on the professional experience of the author...the military retirement system fiscal year 2011, Alexandria, VA: DoD Office of the Actuary . Glazier, R. (2012). Actuarial Cost analysis proposal for... develop solutions to military problems. The unique risks to which service members are exposed require a different analogue to ensure a successful

  10. 精算平衡原则下的企业职工基本养老保险改革研究──基于制度“新人”的单体分析视角%Study on the Basic Endowment Insurance System of Enterprise Employees under the Principle of Actuarial Balance-From the Perspective of“New Insured”Policy

    盖根路; 温净; 贺志群


    There are many problems existing in the basic endowment insurance system of enterprise employees, which show no fairness nor sustainability. And if no actions are taken,the goal of basic pension’s national co-ordination would not be fully realized. With the principle of actuarial balance between the fees and pension benefits,the existing system must go through effective reform. We should insist freemasonry and incentive coexistence and reform the approaches of the original pension which is linked to employees’average wages. With the average life expectancy at retirement as a divisor,taking into account Masonic life factors,we should reform the basic pension approach which is linked to individual indexation wages. Also,using retirement and post-retirement average expectancy as a divisor,we shall improve the approach of personal accounts pension to establish a pension mechanism which connects with contributions and retirement age. Furthermore,a stable pension adjustment mechanism linked with wages’growth should also be built to achieve the goal of pension national co-ordination in a fair and sustainable system.%现行企业职工基本养老保险制度存在许多问题,不公平也不可持续,不改革实现基础养老金全国统筹。在缴费和领取养老金待遇精算平衡的原则下,必须对现行制度进行有效改革。坚持共济与激励共存,以“超额累退”算法改革原来与在岗职工平均工资挂钩的基础养老金计发办法;以退休时的平均预期余命为除数,同时考虑生命共济因素,改革与个人指数化平均缴费工资挂钩的基础养老金计发办法;以退休时和退休后每年的平均预期余命为除数,改革个人账户养老金计发办法,建立养老金与缴费贡献和退休年龄密切相关的联系机制。此外要建立与工资增长挂钩的稳定的养老金调整机制,在公平可持续的制度下实现基础养老金全国统筹。

  11. Loss Distribution Approach (LDA: metodología actuarial aplicada al riesgo operacional Loss Distribution Approach (LDA: actuarial methodology apply to operational risk

    Luis Ceferino Franco Arbeláez


    Full Text Available Este artículo es resultado de un proyecto de investigación sobre la gestión integral del riesgo operacional promovido por la Vicerrectoria de Investigaciones de la Universidad de Medellín, y cofinanciado por una firma comisionista. Se presenta una aplicación del modelo LDA, el cual se basa en la recopilación de los datos de pérdidas históricas (frecuencia y severidad, que se registran internamente en las organizaciones. Dichos datos pueden ser complementados con datos externos. Estas pérdidas son clasificadas en una matriz que relaciona las líneas de negocio de la organización y los eventos operacionales de pérdida, a partir de la cual se calcula la carga de capital. La aplicación se desarrolló para una entidad financiera. El artículo está organizado de la siguiente forma: la primera sección es introductoria al tema. En la segunda parte se presenta formalmente el modelo LDA; luego se realiza una aplicación, y en la cuarta sección se presentan algunas conclusiones.This paper is the result of a research project on integrated management of operational risk, promoted by Universidad de Medellin Research Vice-Principal's Office and co-financed by a financial company. It presents an application of the LDA model, which is based on data collection of historical losses (frequency and severity, which are recorded internally in organizations. Such data can be supplemented with external data. These losses are classified in a matrix that relates business lines of the organization and operational loss events, from which capital charge is estimated. The application was developed for a financial institution. The paper is organized as follows: The first section is introductory to the subject. The second part formally presents a LDA model; then an application is made, and in the fourth part some conclusions are presented.

  12. Gamma knife radiosurgery for acoustic neurinomas. Pt. 2. The analysis of functional outcome

    Fukuoka, Seiji; Takanashi, Masami; Seo, Yoshinobu [Nakamura Memorial Hospital, Sapporo (Japan)] [and others


    Forty-three patients with the unilateral type of acoustic neurinoma treated by gamma knife radiosurgery were evaluated from the viewpoint of functional preservation of cranial nerves and complications. The follow-up period ranged from 22 to 55 months (mean 36 months). The tumors, which ranged in volume from 0.1 to 18.7 ml (mean 4.0 ml), were treated with marginal radiation doses of 9-15 Gy (mean 13.4 Gy) with multiple isocenters (mean 8.7). Functional hearing was preserved in 80% of patients, and actuarial hearing preservation rates were 83% at 1 year, 77% at 2 years, and 77% at 3 years after gamma knife radiosurgery. No factor was found to correlate with hearing deterioration using Cox`s proportional hazards regression model. Transient facial and trigeminal neuropathies occurred in 2.3% and 4.7% of patients, respectively. Ten patients (23%) experienced transient dizziness 3 to 6 months after radiosurgery, but only preradiosurgery canal palsy was found to correlate with this using multiple regression analysis (p=0.02). Three patients developed communicating hydrocephalus, which may have been due to the high cerebrospinal fluid protein concentration (mean 149 mg/dl). Our results show that gamma knife radiosurgery should be considered as alternative therapy for patients with small-to medium-sized acoustic neurinomas, especially in those with functional hearing, due to the high cranial nerve function preservation rates achieved with this procedure. (author)

  13. 成本建模与原价分析%Cost Modeling and Original Price Analysis

    王涛; 袁建新


    In the light of the processing characteristics of automotive sheet metal parts, and based on the establishment of the homogeneous cost pool, we construct the mathematical model of sheet metal products’ original price.By using the models, we make the original price analysis and carry out the sheet metal products’ actuarial work, so the cost control point is found, and ultimately it is realized to save procurement costs and reduce the purchase price.%根据汽车钣金件加工特点,在建立同质作业成本库的基础上,对钣金件产品原价进行数学模型构建,通过模型的运用,实现钣金件产品原价的分析与精算工作,从而发现成本控制点,最终达到节约采购成本、降低采购价格的目的。

  14. An Empirical Analysis of Primary Teacher Standards in Vietnam

    Griffin, Patrick; Cuc, Nguyen Thi Kim; Gillis, Shelley; Thanh, Mai Thi


    This article presents an account of the development of competency standards and profiles for primary teachers in Vietnam. The development project has taken more than four years and used a combination of consultative, actuarial, and item response modeling procedures to develop and validate a scale of teacher competence. In the overall project, more…

  15. The Validity and Utility of the California Family Risk Assessment under Practice Conditions in the Field: A Prospective Study

    Johnson, Will L.


    Objective: Analysis of the validity and implementation of a child maltreatment actuarial risk assessment model, the California Family Risk Assessment (CFRA). Questions addressed: (1) Is there evidence of the validity of the CFRA under field operating conditions? (2) Do actuarial risk assessment results influence child welfare workers' service…




    Full Text Available Agricultural production risk is of special nature due to a great number of hazards, relative weakness of production entities on the market and high ambiguity which is greater than in industrial production. Natural disasters occurring very frequently, at simultaneous low percentage of insured farmers, cause damage of such sizes that force the state to organise current financial aid (for instance in the form of preferential natural disaster loans. This aid is usually not sufficient. On the other hand, regional diversity of the risk level does not positively affect the development of insurance. From the perspective of insurance companies and policymakers it becomes highly important to investigate the spatial structure of losses in agriculture caused by natural disasters. The purpose of the research is to classify the 16 Polish voivodeships into clusters in order to show differences between them according to the criterion of level of damage in agricultural farms caused by natural disasters. On the basis of the cluster analysis it was demonstrated that 11 voivodeships form quite a homogeneous group in terms of size of damage in agriculture (the value of damage in cultivations and the acreage of destroyed cultivations are two most important factors determining affiliation to the cluster, however, the profile of loss occurring in other five voivodeships has a very individual course and requires separate handling in the actuarial sense. It was also proved that high value of losses in agriculture in the absolute sense in given voivodeships do not have to mean high vulnerability of agricultural farms from these voivodeships to natural risks.

  17. Conditional Survival Analysis of Patients With Locally Advanced Laryngeal Cancer: Construction of a Dynamic Risk Model and Clinical Nomogram

    Sheu, Tommy; Vock, David M.; Mohamed, Abdallah S. R.; Gross, Neil; Mulcahy, Collin; Zafereo, Mark; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Sevak, Parag; Phan, Jack; Lewin, Jan S.; Frank, Steven J.; Beadle, Beth M.; Morrison, William H.; Lai, Stephen Y.; Hutcheson, Katherine; Marai, G. Elisabeta; Canahuate, Guadalupe M.; Kies, Merrill; El-Naggar, Adel; Weber, Randal S.; Rosenthal, David I.; Fuller, Clifton D.


    Conditional survival (CS), the survival beyond a pre-defined time interval, can identify periods of higher mortality risk for patients with locally advanced laryngeal cancer who face treatment-related toxicity and comorbidities related to alcohol and smoking in the survivorship setting. Using Weibull regression modeling, we analyzed retrospectively abstracted data from 638 records of patients who received radiation to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) for the first 3 years of survival and for OS conditional upon 3 years of survival. The CS was iteratively calculated, stratifying on variables that were statistically significant on multivariate regression. Predictive nomograms were generated. The median total follow up time was 175 months. The 3- and 6- year actuarial overall survival (OS) was 68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 65–72%) and 49% (CI 45–53%). The 3-year conditional overall survival (COS) at 3 years was 72% (CI 65–74%). Black patients had worse COS over time. Nodal disease was significantly associated with recurrence, but after 3 years, the 3-year conditional RFS converged for all nodal groups. In conclusion, the CS analysis in this patient cohort identified subgroups and time intervals that may represent opportunities for intervention. PMID:28276466

  18. Reproductive effort accelerates actuarial senescence in wild birds : An experimental study

    Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Salomons, Martijn; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Dijkstra, Cornelis; Verhulst, Simon


    Optimality theories of ageing predict that the balance between reproductive effort and somatic maintenance determines the rate of ageing. Laboratory studies find that increased reproductive effort shortens lifespan, but through increased short-term mortality rather than ageing. In contrast, high fec

  19. ACA and the Triple Aim: Musings of a Health Care Actuary.

    McCarthy, Mac


    In 2008, the Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI) promulgated the Triple Aim, which advocates simultaneous improvements in patient experiences, improved population health and lower cost per capita. In 2010, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) promised quality, affordable health care for all Americans. It's fair to assume that the framers of ACA were aware of the Triple Aim, and it is likely that much of ACA was heavily influenced by IHI's positions. So it is reasonable, from time to time, to assess ACA's impact on health care against the Triple Aim principles.

  20. Age distributions of Greenlandic dwarf shrubs support concept of negligible actuarial senescence

    Dahlgren, Johan; Rizzi, Silvia; Schweingruber, Fritz;


    determination from the root collars of small plants constitutes a powerful technique to further investigate age dependency of the demography of many plant species, including eudicot herbs. Using these methods for long-lived plants where long-term monitoring is unrealistic, we show that age is unlikely...... to be an important variable for making population projections and determining extinction risks....

  1. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.


    The German Insurance Association (GDV) analyzed the impacts of climate change for the German insurance market. The work was conducted in cooperation with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Cologne. Different approaches and data sets were used to analyze the impacts of winter storm, hail and floods. High-resolution loss records to residential buildings in Germany were provided. These daily records are available on a fine spatial level of administrative districts from 1997-2007. For the period of 1984-2008 daily losses to residential buildings were derived from motor vehicle own damage insurance, which shows a surprisingly high correlation between building losses and motor vehicle losses caused by natural hazards. Loss functions from GDVs own flood risk model were made available to estimate flood losses. As climate change will progress the mean annual losses in the private residential building insurance might increase. Until 2100 losses due to winter storm could rise by more than 50%. The increase is mainly attributable to the intensification of individual exceptionally severe storms. Climate change will also result in an increase of flood losses. By the end of the century mean losses are expected to be twice as high - depending on the given scenario they could remain constant or triple. Conversely extreme events with high cumulative losses are expected to become significantly more frequent. Storms with a today's return period of 50 years might occur every 10 years at the end of the century. Floods, now returning every 50 years, could arise every 25 years. For the first time hailstorms have been analyzed. It was noticed, that in particular East Germany might be hit more frequently. Despite these findings, i.e. the cost of insurance against natural hazards might increase, the extent of such an increase in Germany should still remain within limits that can be mastered by the insurance companies. But we have to adapt to climate change. For this purpose stakeholder usually need ascertained numbers. Because our results were achieved using ensemble techniques they display per se a considerable spread. Despite this fact our results are robust over all approaches and climate models. Therefore they can be used for strategic decisions, less for daily routine business. Higher and more frequent losses will require higher venture capital and must be taken into account when implementing the EU directive Solvency II. If we assess our results carefully and act farseeing, we will be able to draw from manifold activities to deal with climate change impacts. Smart portfolio policy can help to reduce risks. Working with limits and franchises can help to insure highly exposed risks. Therefore GDV offers to his member companies wide accepted tools and risk models such as ZÜRS Geo, HQ Kumul and detailed risk statistics. After all, well-directed information policy, increased risk awareness and preventive action can reduce climate change impacts significantly.

  2. A Dearth of Numbers: The Actuary and the Sentinel in Global Public Health

    Lakoff, Andrew


    How do experts respond to a threat whose probability cannot be calculated but whose consequences could be catastrophic? Andrew Lakoff explores the political dynamics of sentinel devices in the case of the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

  3. Identifying Pedophiles "Eligible" for Community Notification under Megan's Law: A Multivariate Model for Actuarially Anchored Decisions.

    Pallone, Nathaniel J.; Hennessy, James J.; Voelbel, Gerald T.


    A scientifically sound methodology for identifying offenders about whose presence the community should be notified is demonstrated. A stepwise multiple regression was calculated among incarcerated pedophiles (N=52) including both psychological and legal data; a precision-weighted equation produced 90.4% "true positives." This methodology can be…

  4. 5 CFR 839.1119 - How is the actuarial reduction for TSP computed?


    ... computed? 839.1119 Section 839.1119 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED... ERRONEOUS RETIREMENT COVERAGE CORRECTIONS ACT Effect of Election General Provisions § 839.1119 How is the... Government contributions and earnings on those Government contributions forms the basis for the...

  5. 'Last-minute' donations influence actuarial prediction in an anatomical body donation program

    Wijbenga, B. S.; Koning, R. H.; Kooistra - Akse, Berdien; Bolt, S.; Kuks, J. B. M.; van Zanten-Timmer, G.; Veening, J. G.; Gerrits, P. O.


    Background: At some American and European universities the dissection program is threatened by a shortage of anatomical specimens. In contrast, the annual numbers of registrations at the University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG) in the Netherlands increased substantially in recent years. Uncontroll

  6. 77 FR 69850 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...


    ... sequestration, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following year's expenditures would... legislation, then the Part B asset reserve ratio for December 31, 2013 would be approximately 9.3 percentage... reserve ratios at the end of 2013 would be reduced by approximately another 2 percentage points....

  7. Clinical outcome of patients with primary gliosarcoma treated with concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide: A single institutional analysis of 27 cases

    G K Rath


    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND AIM: The prognosis of primary gliosarcoma (PGS remains dismal with current treatment modalities. We analyzed the outcome of PGS patients treated with concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: Retrospective single institutional analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 27 patients of PGS treated with radiotherapy (RT and TMZ during 2007-2012. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Overall survival (OS was estimated by the use of Kaplan Meier method and toxicities were evaluate using common terminology criteria for adverse events version 2.0 (National Cancer Institute, USA. RESULTS: Median age at presentation and Karnofsky performance status was 45 years and 90 respectively and male: female ratio was 20:7. Patients received adjuvant RT to a total dose of 60 Gy at 2 Gy/fraction. All patients except 5 received adjuvant TMZ to a median number of 6 cycles. Grade 2 and 3 hematological toxicity was seen in 8% and 4% of patients respectively during concurrent RT. During adjuvant chemotherapy, 13.6% had Grade 3 thrombocytopenia and 9.5% had Grade 3 neutropenia. Median OS was 16.7 months (1 year and 2 year actuarial OS was 70.8% and 32.6% respectively. Adjuvant TMZ was associated with a better survival (median survival 21.21 vs. 11.93 months; P = 0.0046 on univariate analysis and also on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.503-25.58; P = 0.012. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study, largest series of patients with PGS treated with concurrent and adjuvant TMZ shows an impressive survival with acceptable toxicity. We suggest TMZ be included in the “standard of care” for this tumor.

  8. Exposure-response analysis of risk of respiratory disease associated with occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos.

    Stayner, L; Smith, R; Bailer, J; Gilbert, S; Steenland, K; Dement, J; Brown, D; Lemen, R


    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate alternative models and estimate risk of mortality from lung cancer and asbestosis after occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos. METHODS: Data were used from a recent update of a cohort mortality study of workers in a South Carolina textile factory. Alternative exposure-response models were evaluated with Poisson regression. A model designed to evaluate evidence of a threshold response was also fitted. Lifetime risks of lung cancer and asbestosis were estimated with an actuarial approach that accounts for competing causes of death. RESULTS: A highly significant exposure-response relation was found for both lung cancer and asbestosis. The exposure-response relation for lung cancer seemed to be linear on a multiplicative scale, which is consistent with previous analyses of lung cancer and exposure to asbestos. In contrast, the exposure-response relation for asbestosis seemed to be nonlinear on a multiplicative scale in this analysis. There was no significant evidence for a threshold in models of either the lung cancer or asbestosis. The excess lifetime risk for white men exposed for 45 years at the recently revised OSHA standard of 0.1 fibre/ml was predicted to be about 5/1000 for lung cancer, and 2/1000 for asbestosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the findings from previous investigations of a strong exposure-response relation between exposure to chrysotile asbestos and mortality from lung cancer, and asbestosis. The risk estimates for lung cancer derived from this analysis are higher than those derived from other populations exposed to chrysotile asbestos. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. PMID:9423577

  9. Manifestation Pattern of Early-Late Vaginal Morbidity After Definitive Radiation (Chemo)Therapy and Image-Guided Adaptive Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: An Analysis From the EMBRACE Study

    Kirchheiner, Kathrin, E-mail: [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Nout, Remi A. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center (Netherlands); Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C. [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital (Denmark); Westerveld, Henrike [Department of Radiotherapy, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haie-Meder, Christine [Department of Radiotherapy, Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Petrič, Primož [Department of Radiotherapy, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana (Slovenia); Department of Radiotherapy, National Center for Cancer Care and Research, Doha (Qatar); Mahantshetty, Umesh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Dörr, Wolfgang; Pötter, Richard [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria)


    Background and Purpose: Brachytherapy in the treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer has changed substantially because of the introduction of combined intracavitary/interstitial applicators and an adaptive target concept, which is the focus of the prospective, multi-institutional EMBRACE study ( ( on image-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IGABT). So far, little has been reported about the development of early to late vaginal morbidity in the frame of IGABT. Therefore, the aim of the present EMBRACE analysis was to evaluate the manifestation pattern of vaginal morbidity during the first 2 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: In total, 588 patients with a median follow-up time of 15 months and information on vaginal morbidity were included. Morbidity was prospectively assessed at baseline, every 3 months during the first year, and every 6 months in the second year according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3, regarding vaginal stenosis, dryness, mucositis, bleeding, fistula, and other symptoms. Crude incidence rates, actuarial probabilities, and prevalence rates were analyzed. Results: At 2 years, the actuarial probability of severe vaginal morbidity (grade ≥3) was 3.6%. However, mild and moderate vaginal symptoms were still pronounced (grade ≥1, 89%; grade ≥2, 29%), of which the majority developed within 6 months. Stenosis was most frequently observed, followed by vaginal dryness. Vaginal bleeding and mucositis were mainly mild and infrequently reported. Conclusion: Severe vaginal morbidity within the first 2 years after definitive radiation (chemo)therapy including IGABT with intracavitary/interstitial techniques for locally advanced cervical cancer is limited and is significantly less than has been reported from earlier studies. Thus, the new adaptive target concept seems to be a safe treatment with regard to the vagina being an organ at risk. However, mild to moderate vaginal morbidity

  10. Construction and Validation of Risk Assessments in a Six-Year Follow-Up of Forensic Patients: A Tridimensional Analysis.

    Menzies, Robert; Webster, Christopher D.


    Evaluations of the risk of recurrent violence were conducted for 162 Canadian mentally disordered criminal defendants through the assembly of actuarial data, scores from special-to-purpose psychometric instruments, and scaled global predictions of dangerousness to others. Professional clinicians were not more accurate than nonclinical raters. (JPS)

  11. Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund Audited Financial Statements. Fiscal Year 2013


    Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the Years Ended September 30, 2013 and 2012.” Computation of Incurred Claims Reserve The actuarial ...methods are used to compute the IBNR, including the development of month-to-month completion factors, IBNR smoothing techniques, as well as analysis care costs provide input to the development of the actuarially determined long-term health care liability of MERHCF, as well as the

  12. The Largest Known Survival Analysis of Patients with Brain Metastasis from Thyroid Cancer Based on Prognostic Groups.

    Jinhyun Choi

    Full Text Available To analyze the clinical features and prognostic factors associated with the survival of patients with a very rare occurrence of brain metastasis (BM from differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC.A total of 37 patients with DTC who were diagnosed with BM between 1995 and 2014 were included. We reviewed the clinical characteristics, treatment modalities, and image findings of BM. Factors associated with survival were evaluated, and the patients were divided into three prognostic groups (Groups A, B, and C for comparative analysis.The median age at BM was 63 years, and the median time from initial thyroid cancer diagnosis to BM was 3.8 years. The median survival and the 1-year actuarial survival rate after BM were 8.8 months and 47%, respectively. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, four good prognostic factors (GPFs were identified including age ≤ 60 years, PS ≤ ECOG 2, ≤ 3 BM sites, and without extracranial metastasis prior to BM. Three prognostic groups were designed based on age and number of remaining GPFs: patients ≤ 60 years of age with at least 2 GPFs (Group A had the most favorable prognosis with a median survival of 32.8 months; patients ≤ 60 years of age with fewer than 2 GPFs and those > 60 years of age with at least 2 GPFs (Group B had an intermediate prognosis with a median survival of 9.4 months; and patients > 60 years of age with fewer than 2 GPFs (Group C had the least favorable prognosis with a median survival of 1.5 months.The survival of patients with BM form DTC differed among the prognostic groups based on the total number of good prognostic factors.

  13. A retrospective health policy analysis of the development and implementation of the voluntary health insurance system in Lebanon: learning from failure.

    El-Jardali, Fadi; Bou-Karroum, Lama; Ataya, Nour; El-Ghali, Hana Addam; Hammoud, Rawan


    Public policymaking is complex and suffers from limited uptake of research evidence, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). In-depth case studies examining health policymaking in the EMR are lacking. This retrospective policy analysis aims at generating insights about how policies are being made, identifying factors influencing policymaking and assessing to what extent evidence is used in this process by using the Lebanese Voluntary Health Insurance policy as a case study. The study examined the policymaking process through a policy tracing technique that covered a period of 12 years. The study employed a qualitative research design using a case study approach and was conducted in two phases over the course of two years. Data was collected using multiple sources including: 1) a comprehensive and chronological media review; 2) twenty-two key informant interviews with policymakers, stakeholders, and journalists; and 3) a document review of legislations, minutes of meetings, actuarial studies, and official documents. Data was analyzed and validated using thematic analysis. Findings showed that the voluntary health insurance policy was a political decision taken by the government to tackle an urgent political problem. Evidence was not used to guide policy development and implementation and policy implementers and other stakeholders were not involved in policy development. Factors influencing policymaking were political interests, sectarianism, urgency, and values of policymakers. Barriers to the use of evidence were lack of policy-relevant research evidence, political context, personal interests, and resource constraints. Findings suggest that policymakers should be made more aware of the important role of evidence in informing public policymaking and the need for building capacity to develop, implement and evaluate policies. Study findings are likely to matter in light of the changes that are unfolding in some Arab countries and the looming

  14. Whole lot of parts: stress in extreme environments.

    Steel, G Daniel


    Stress has been a central interest for researchers of human behavior in extreme and unusual environments and also for those who are responsible for planning and carrying out expeditions involving such environments. This paper compares the actuarial and case study methods for predicting reactions to stress. Actuarial studies are useful, but do not tap enough variables to allow us to predict how a specific individual will cope with the rigors of an individual mission. Case histories provide a wealth of detail, but few investigators understand the challenges of properly applying this method. This study reviews some of the strengths and weaknesses of the actuarial and case history methods, and presents a four celled taxonomy of stress based on method (actuarial and case history) and effects (distress and eustress). For both research and operational purposes, the person, the setting, and time should not be considered independently; rather, it is an amalgam of these variables that provides the proper basis of analysis.

  15. The Influence of Total Nodes Examined, Number of Positive Nodes, and Lymph Node Ratio on Survival After Surgical Resection and Adjuvant Chemoradiation for Pancreatic Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of RTOG 9704

    Showalter, Timothy N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Jefferson Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Winter, Kathryn A. [Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, RTOG Statistical Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Berger, Adam C., E-mail: [Department of Surgery, Jefferson Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Regine, William F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, MD (United States); Abrams, Ross A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL (United States); Safran, Howard [Department of Medicine, Miriam Hospital, Brown University Oncology Group, Providence, RI (United States); Hoffman, John P. [Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Benson, Al B. [Division of Hematology-Oncology, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL (United States); MacDonald, John S. [St. Vincent' s Cancer Care Center, New York, NY (United States); Willett, Christopher G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)


    Purpose: Lymph node status is an important predictor of survival in pancreatic cancer. We performed a secondary analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9704, an adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation trial, to determine the influence of lymph node factors-number of positive nodes (NPN), total nodes examined (TNE), and lymph node ratio (LNR ratio of NPN to TNE)-on OS and disease-free survival (DFS). Patient and Methods: Eligible patients from RTOG 9704 form the basis of this secondary analysis of lymph node parameters. Actuarial estimates for OS and DFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate associations of NPN, TNE, and LNR with OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were also performed. Results: There were 538 patients enrolled in the RTOG 9704 trial. Of these, 445 patients were eligible with lymph nodes removed. Overall median NPN was 1 (min-max, 0-18). Increased NPN was associated with worse OS (HR = 1.06, p = 0.001) and DFS (HR = 1.05, p = 0.01). In multivariate analyses, both NPN and TNE were associated with OS and DFS. TNE > 12, and >15 were associated with increased OS for all patients, but not for node-negative patients (n = 142). Increased LNR was associated with worse OS (HR = 1.01, p < 0.0001) and DFS (HR = 1.006, p = 0.002). Conclusion: In patients who undergo surgical resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiation, TNE, NPN, and LNR are associated with OS and DFS. This secondary analysis of a prospective, cooperative group trial supports the influence of these lymph node parameters on outcomes after surgery and adjuvant therapy using contemporary techniques.

  16. The influence of total nodes examined, number of positive nodes, and lymph node ratio on survival after surgical resection and adjuvant chemoradiation for pancreatic cancer: A secondary analysis of RTOG 9704

    Showalter, Timothy N.; Winter, Kathryn A.; Berger, Adam C.; Regine, William F.; Abrams, Ross A.; Safran, Howard; Hoffman, John P.; Benson, Al B.; MacDonald, John S.; Willett, Christopher G.


    Purpose Lymph node status is an important predictor of survival in pancreatic cancer. We performed a secondary analysis of RTOG 9704, an adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation trial, to determine the influence of lymph node factors-number of positive nodes (NPN), total nodes examined (TNE), and lymph node ratio (LNR-ratio of NPN to TNE)-on OS and disease-free survival (DFS). Patient and Methods Eligible patients from RTOG 9704 form the basis of this secondary analysis of lymph node parameters. Actuarial estimates for OS and DFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate associations of NPN, TNE, and LNR with OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were also performed. Results There were 538 patients enrolled in the RTOG 9704 trial. Of these, 445 patients were eligible with lymph nodes removed. Overall median NPN was 1 (min-max, 0-18). Increased NPN was associated with worse OS (HR=1.06, p=0.001) and DFS (HR=1.05, p=0.01). In multivariate analyses, both NPN and TNE were associated with OS and DFS. TNE > 12, and >15, were associated with increased OS for all patients, but not for node-negative patients (n =142). Increased LNR was associated with worse OS (HR=1.01, p<0.0001) and DFS (HR=1.006, p=0.002). Conclusion In patients who undergo surgical resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiation, TNE, NPN, and LNR are associated with OS and DFS. This secondary analysis of a prospective, cooperative group trial supports the influence of these lymph node parameters on outcomes after surgery and adjuvant therapy using contemporary techniques. PMID:20934270

  17. 20 CFR 901.53 - Notice of suspension, termination or resignation of enrollment.


    ... ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME... enrollment of an actuary, the Executive Director shall give notice thereof to appropriate officers...

  18. Outcomes for Spine Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and an Analysis of Predictors of Local Recurrence

    Bishop, Andrew J.; Tao, Randa [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Rebueno, Neal C. [Department of Radiation Dosimetry, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Christensen, Eva N.; Allen, Pamela K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wang, Xin A. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Amini, Behrang [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tannir, Nizar M. [Department of Genitourinary Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Tatsui, Claudio E.; Rhines, Laurence D. [Department of Neurosurgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Li, Jing [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Chang, Eric L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, USC Norris Cancer Hospital, Keck School of Medicine of USC, Los Angeles, California (United States); Brown, Paul D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Ghia, Amol J., E-mail: [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)


    Purpose: To investigate local control, survival outcomes, and predictors of local relapse for patients treated with spine stereotactic body radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 332 spinal metastases consecutively treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy between 2002 and 2012. The median follow-up for all living patients was 33 months (range, 0-111 months). Endpoints were overall survival and local control (LC); recurrences were classified as either in-field or marginal. Results: The 1-year actuarial LC and overall survival rates were 88% and 64%, respectively. Patients with local relapses had poorer dosimetric coverage of the gross tumor volume (GTV) compared with patients without recurrence (minimum dose [Dmin] biologically equivalent dose [BED] 23.9 vs 35.1 Gy, P<.001; D98 BED 41.8 vs 48.1 Gy, P=.001; D95 BED 47.2 vs 50.5 Gy, P=.004). Furthermore, patients with marginal recurrences had poorer prescription coverage of the GTV (86% vs 93%, P=.01) compared with those with in-field recurrences, potentially because of more upfront spinal canal disease (78% vs 24%, P=.001). Using a Cox regression univariate analysis, patients with a GTV BED Dmin ≥33.4 Gy (median dose) (equivalent to 14 Gy in 1 fraction) had a significantly higher 1-year LC rate (94% vs 80%, P=.001) compared with patients with a lower GTV BED Dmin; this factor was the only significant variable on multivariate Cox analysis associated with LC (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.60) and also was the only variable significant in a separate competing risk multivariate model (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.62). Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy offers durable control for spinal metastases, but there is a subset of patients that recur locally. Patients with local relapse had significantly poorer tumor coverage, which was likely attributable to treatment planning directives that prioritized the

  19. Long-term local control achieved after hypofractionated stereotactic body radiotherapy for adrenal gland metastases: A retrospective analysis of 34 patients

    Scorsetti, Marta; Alongi, Filippo [Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery Dept., IRCCS Istituto Clinico Humanitas, Humanitas Cancer Center, Rozzano, Milano (Italy)], Email:; Filippi, Andrea Riccardo [Radiation Oncology Unit, Dept. of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Univ. of Turin, Turin (Italy)] [and others


    Aims and background. To describe feasibility, tolerability and clinical outcomes of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in the treatment of adrenal metastases in 34 consecutive cancer patients. Material and methods. Between March 2004 and July 2010, a total of 34 consecutive patients, accounting for 36 adrenal metastatic lesions, were treated with SBRT. SBRT treatments were delivered by a Linac Varian 600 with microMLC (3DLine, Elekta, Stockholm, Sweden) and a Linac ELEKTA Precise (Elekta). All 34 patients were clinically and radiologically evaluated during and after completion of SBRT. Following outcomes were taken into account: best clinical response at any time, local control, time to systemic progression, time to local progression, overall survival and toxicity. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and factor potentially affecting outcomes were analyzed with Cox regression analysis. Results. Total RT doses ranged from 20 Gy in 4 fractions to 45 Gy in 18 fractions (median dose: 32 Gy; median number of fractions: 4). All doses were prescribed to the 95% isodose line. No cases of Grade {>=} 3 toxicity were recorded. At a median follow-up time of 41 months (range, 12-75) 22 patients were alive. Three of 28 lesions (11%) showed complete response, 13/28 (46%) partial response, 10/28 (36%) stable disease and 2/28 (7%) progressed in the treated area. Local failure was observed in 13 cases. Actuarial local control rates at one and two years were 66% and 32%, respectively. Median time to local progression was 19 months. Median survival was 22 months. Conclusion. SBRT in adrenal gland metastasis is feasible without significant acute and late toxicities, with a good rate of local control. New SBRT fractionation schemes and the possibility to combine new systemic approaches should be investigated in order to further increase local control and reduce systemic disease progression.

  20. 精算思想的演进与精算理论发展综述%Review on the Evolution of Actuarial Thoughts and Development of Actuarial Theory

    孙立娟; 汪哲侃



  1. Aplicación de modelos autoregresivos para variables economicas en el cálculo actuarial

    Torres Guaranda, Francisco Rafael; Sandoya Sanchez, Fernando


    El objetivo principal del desarrollo de este tema de investigación, es hallar, a partir de un Modelo Autoregresivo que ajusta la fluctuación de la tasa de interés en el tiempo, los momentos de las anualidades, seguros ciertos y de vida, los cuales representan el negocio de muchas empresas no sólo de nuestro país sino también del extranjero. El cálculo de estos momentos es un tema fundamental en Matemáticas Actuariales, pues permiten evaluar el monto de las primas y el riesgo de emitirlas. ...

  2. 26 CFR 1.412(c)(2)-1 - Valuation of plan assets; reasonable actuarial valuation methods.


    ... determined under paragraph (b)(7) of this section. Assuming the numerical data of Example 6, the application... the funding standard account based on the retroactive application of its new method as of the first... valuation methods. 1.412(c)(2)-1 Section 1.412(c)(2)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE,...

  3. 76 FR 49569 - Use of Actuarial Tables in Valuing Annuities, Interests for Life or Terms of Years, and Remainder...


    ... and life contingencies prescribed in Sec. 20.2031-7 of this chapter (or for periods before May 1, 2009... transferred to a pooled income fund is computed on the basis of-- (i) Life contingencies determined from the... charitable remainder unitrust. (a) * * * (1) Life contingencies determined as to each life involved, from...

  4. Actuarial risk of isolated CNS involvement in Ewing's sarcoma following prophylactic cranial irradiation and intrathecal methotrexate

    Trigg, M.E.; Makuch, R.; Glaubiger, D.


    Records of 154 patients with Ewing's sarcoma treated at the National Cancer Institute were reviewed to assess the incidence and risk of developing isolated central nervous system (CNS) Ewing's sarcoma. Sixty-two of the 154 patients had received CNS irradiation and intrathecal (i.t.) methotrexate as part of their initial therapy to prevent the occurrence of isolated CNS Ewing's sarcoma. The risk of developing isolate CNS Ewing's sarcoma was greatest within the first two years after diagnosis and was approximately 10%. The overall risk of CNS recurrence in the group of patients receiving DNS treatment was similar to the group receiving no therapy directed to the CNS. The occurrence of isolated CNS involvement was not prevented by the use of CNS irradiation and i.t. methotrexate. Because of a lack of efficacy to the CNS irradiation regimen, current treatment regimens do not include therapy directed to CNS.

  5. 5 CFR 839.1118 - Will my annuity be actuarially reduced because I had Government contributions in my TSP account?



  6. Needs analysis



    Though needs analysis has been seen as one of the fundamental defining characteristics of ESP,it is not unknown in is a salient stage,especially for the task option and syllabus evaluation.In this essay,the meaning of needs,the importance of needs analysis,and the way to implement needs analysis are subject to analysis.

  7. 29 CFR 2520.101-6 - Multiemployer pension plan information made available on request.


    ... “periodic actuarial report” means any— (i) Actuarial report prepared by an actuary of the plan and received... plan from an actuary of the plan that depicts alternative funding scenarios based on a range...

  8. Sensitivity analysis

    ... page: // Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...

  9. CSF analysis

    Cerebrospinal fluid analysis ... Analysis of CSF can help detect certain conditions and diseases. All of the following can be, but ... An abnormal CSF analysis result may be due to many different causes, ... Encephalitis (such as West Nile and Eastern Equine) Hepatic ...

  10. Grey analysis

    Cable, G.D.


    Grey logic is not another name for fuzzy logic. Grey logic--also called grey analysis or grey system theory--is a new technology, a group of techniques for system analysis and modeling. Like fuzzy logic, grey logic is useful in situations with incomplete and uncertain information. Grey analysis is particularly applicable in instances with very limited data and in cases with little system knowledge or understanding. In this paper, a summary of the basic concepts of grey analysis is provided, with descriptions of its application to several classes of problems. Calculations methods are provided for grey relation analysis, and for modeling and prediction using grey methods.

  11. Fourier analysis

    Stade, Eric


    A reader-friendly, systematic introduction to Fourier analysis Rich in both theory and application, Fourier Analysis presents a unique and thorough approach to a key topic in advanced calculus. This pioneering resource tells the full story of Fourier analysis, including its history and its impact on the development of modern mathematical analysis, and also discusses essential concepts and today's applications. Written at a rigorous level, yet in an engaging style that does not dilute the material, Fourier Analysis brings two profound aspects of the discipline to the forefront: the wealth of ap

  12. Methods of Estimating Strategic Intentions


    of events, coding categories. A V 𔃻 2. Weighting Data: polIcy capturIng, Bayesian methods, correlation and variance analysis. 3. Characterizing Data...memory aids, fuzzy sets, factor analysis. 4. Assessing Covariations: actuarial models, backcasting . bootstrapping. 5. Cause and Effect Assessment...causae search, causal analysis, search trees, stepping analysts, hypothesis, regression analysis. 6. Predictions: Backcast !ng, boot strapping, decision

  13. Panel Analysis

    Brænder, Morten; Andersen, Lotte Bøgh


    Based on our 2013-article, ”Does Deployment to War Affect Soldiers' Public Service Motivation – A Panel Study of Soldiers Before and After their Service in Afghanistan”, we present Panel Analysis as a methodological discipline. Panels consist of multiple units of analysis, observed at two or more...

  14. Applied analysis

    Lanczos, Cornelius


    Basic text for graduate and advanced undergraduate deals with search for roots of algebraic equations encountered in vibration and flutter problems and in those of static and dynamic stability. Other topics devoted to matrices and eigenvalue problems, large-scale linear systems, harmonic analysis and data analysis, more.

  15. Scenario analysis

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.


    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  16. Recursive analysis

    Goodstein, R L


    Recursive analysis develops natural number computations into a framework appropriate for real numbers. This text is based upon primary recursive arithmetic and presents a unique combination of classical analysis and intuitional analysis. Written by a master in the field, it is suitable for graduate students of mathematics and computer science and can be read without a detailed knowledge of recursive arithmetic.Introductory chapters on recursive convergence and recursive and relative continuity are succeeded by explorations of recursive and relative differentiability, the relative integral, and

  17. Numerical analysis

    Khabaza, I M


    Numerical Analysis is an elementary introduction to numerical analysis, its applications, limitations, and pitfalls. Methods suitable for digital computers are emphasized, but some desk computations are also described. Topics covered range from the use of digital computers in numerical work to errors in computations using desk machines, finite difference methods, and numerical solution of ordinary differential equations. This book is comprised of eight chapters and begins with an overview of the importance of digital computers in numerical analysis, followed by a discussion on errors in comput

  18. Private, Social and Self-Insurance for Long-Term Care in the Presence of Family Help - A Political Economy Analysis

    De Donder, Philippe; Pestieau, Pierre


    We study the political determination of the level of social long-term care insurance when voters also choose private insurance and saving amounts. Agents differ in income, probability of becoming dependent and of receiving family help. Social insurance redistributes across income and risk levels, while private insurance is actuarially fair. The income-to-risk ratio of agents determines whether they prefer social or private insurance. Family support crowds out the demand for both social and, e...

  19. Conversation Analysis.

    Schiffrin, Deborah


    Summarizes the current state of research in conversation analysis, referring primarily to six different perspectives that have developed from the philosophy, sociology, anthropology, and linguistics disciplines. These include pragmatics; speech act theory; interactional sociolinguistics; ethnomethodology; ethnography of communication; and…

  20. Surface analysis.

    Kinsella, T


    Surface analysis techniques are important tools to use in the verification of surface cleanliness and medical device functionality. How these techniques can be employed and some example applications are described.

  1. Biorefinery Analysis


    Fact sheet summarizing NREL's techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment capabilities to connect research with future commercial process integration, a critical step in the scale-up of biomass conversion technologies.

  2. CSF Analysis

    ... a chronic disease, such as multiple sclerosis or Alzheimer disease . Depending on a person's history, a healthcare provider may order CSF analysis when some combination of the following signs and symptoms appear, especially when accompanied by flu-like symptoms ...

  3. Analysis II

    Tao, Terence


    This is part two of a two-volume book on real analysis and is intended for senior undergraduate students of mathematics who have already been exposed to calculus. The emphasis is on rigour and foundations of analysis. Beginning with the construction of the number systems and set theory, the book discusses the basics of analysis (limits, series, continuity, differentiation, Riemann integration), through to power series, several variable calculus and Fourier analysis, and then finally the Lebesgue integral. These are almost entirely set in the concrete setting of the real line and Euclidean spaces, although there is some material on abstract metric and topological spaces. The book also has appendices on mathematical logic and the decimal system. The entire text (omitting some less central topics) can be taught in two quarters of 25–30 lectures each. The course material is deeply intertwined with the exercises, as it is intended that the student actively learn the material (and practice thinking and writing ri...

  4. Analysis I

    Tao, Terence


    This is part one of a two-volume book on real analysis and is intended for senior undergraduate students of mathematics who have already been exposed to calculus. The emphasis is on rigour and foundations of analysis. Beginning with the construction of the number systems and set theory, the book discusses the basics of analysis (limits, series, continuity, differentiation, Riemann integration), through to power series, several variable calculus and Fourier analysis, and then finally the Lebesgue integral. These are almost entirely set in the concrete setting of the real line and Euclidean spaces, although there is some material on abstract metric and topological spaces. The book also has appendices on mathematical logic and the decimal system. The entire text (omitting some less central topics) can be taught in two quarters of 25–30 lectures each. The course material is deeply intertwined with the exercises, as it is intended that the student actively learn the material (and practice thinking and writing ri...

  5. Numerical analysis

    Scott, L Ridgway


    Computational science is fundamentally changing how technological questions are addressed. The design of aircraft, automobiles, and even racing sailboats is now done by computational simulation. The mathematical foundation of this new approach is numerical analysis, which studies algorithms for computing expressions defined with real numbers. Emphasizing the theory behind the computation, this book provides a rigorous and self-contained introduction to numerical analysis and presents the advanced mathematics that underpin industrial software, including complete details that are missing from m

  6. Link Analysis

    Donoho, Steve

    Link analysis is a collection of techniques that operate on data that can be represented as nodes and links. This chapter surveys a variety of techniques including subgraph matching, finding cliques and K-plexes, maximizing spread of influence, visualization, finding hubs and authorities, and combining with traditional techniques (classification, clustering, etc). It also surveys applications including social network analysis, viral marketing, Internet search, fraud detection, and crime prevention.

  7. Business analysis

    Paul, Debra; Cadle, James


    Throughout the business world, public, private and not-for-profit organisations face huge challenges. Business analysts must respond by developing practical, creative and financially sound solutions. This excellent guide gives them the necessary tools. It supports everyone wanting to achieve university and industry qualifications in business analysis and information systems. It is particularly beneficial for those studying for ISEB qualifications in Business Analysis. Some important additions since the first edition (2006): the inclusion of new techniques such as Ishikawa diagrams and spaghe

  8. Factor analysis

    Gorsuch, Richard L


    Comprehensive and comprehensible, this classic covers the basic and advanced topics essential for using factor analysis as a scientific tool in psychology, education, sociology, and related areas. Emphasizing the usefulness of the techniques, it presents sufficient mathematical background for understanding and sufficient discussion of applications for effective use. This includes not only theory but also the empirical evaluations of the importance of mathematical distinctions for applied scientific analysis.

  9. Defining the key-parameters of insurance product in Islamic insurance

    Galim Zaribzyanovich Vakhitov


    Full Text Available Objective to define the range of actuarial calculations in Islamic insurance to study the main differences of the traditional and Islamic insurance to define what changes in calculations entail the above differences. Methods mathematical modeling probabilistic analysis of insurance risks adaptation of methods of actuarial mathematics to the principles of Islamic insurance. Results the mathematical form of the takafulfund models is presented the distribution is analyzed of a random variable of the resulting insurance fund or the insurance company balance in a particular fixed insurance portfolio. Scientific novelty calculation are presented of the optimal tariff rate in takaful. Islamic insurance is an innovative area of insurance industry. Actuarial calculations that meet the Sharia rules are still being developed. The authors set the new tasks of actuarial calculations including the specified changes in the calculation of the optimal tariff rate imposed by the Islamic insurance principles. Practical value the results obtained can be used in the actuarial calculations of the Islamic insurance companies. nbsp

  10. Numerical analysis

    Jacques, Ian


    This book is primarily intended for undergraduates in mathematics, the physical sciences and engineering. It introduces students to most of the techniques forming the core component of courses in numerical analysis. The text is divided into eight chapters which are largely self-contained. However, with a subject as intricately woven as mathematics, there is inevitably some interdependence between them. The level of difficulty varies and, although emphasis is firmly placed on the methods themselves rather than their analysis, we have not hesitated to include theoretical material when we consider it to be sufficiently interesting. However, it should be possible to omit those parts that do seem daunting while still being able to follow the worked examples and to tackle the exercises accompanying each section. Familiarity with the basic results of analysis and linear algebra is assumed since these are normally taught in first courses on mathematical methods. For reference purposes a list of theorems used in the t...

  11. Numerical analysis

    Rao, G Shanker


    About the Book: This book provides an introduction to Numerical Analysis for the students of Mathematics and Engineering. The book is designed in accordance with the common core syllabus of Numerical Analysis of Universities of Andhra Pradesh and also the syllabus prescribed in most of the Indian Universities. Salient features: Approximate and Numerical Solutions of Algebraic and Transcendental Equation Interpolation of Functions Numerical Differentiation and Integration and Numerical Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations The last three chapters deal with Curve Fitting, Eigen Values and Eigen Vectors of a Matrix and Regression Analysis. Each chapter is supplemented with a number of worked-out examples as well as number of problems to be solved by the students. This would help in the better understanding of the subject. Contents: Errors Solution of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations Finite Differences Interpolation with Equal Intervals Interpolation with Unequal Int...

  12. Real analysis

    Loeb, Peter A


    This textbook is designed for a year-long course in real analysis taken by beginning graduate and advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and other areas such as statistics, engineering, and economics. Written by one of the leading scholars in the field, it elegantly explores the core concepts in real analysis and introduces new, accessible methods for both students and instructors. The first half of the book develops both Lebesgue measure and, with essentially no additional work for the student, general Borel measures for the real line. Notation indicates when a result holds only for Lebesgue measure. Differentiation and absolute continuity are presented using a local maximal function, resulting in an exposition that is both simpler and more general than the traditional approach. The second half deals with general measures and functional analysis, including Hilbert spaces, Fourier series, and the Riesz representation theorem for positive linear functionals on continuous functions with compact support....

  13. Real analysis

    DiBenedetto, Emmanuele


    The second edition of this classic textbook presents a rigorous and self-contained introduction to real analysis with the goal of providing a solid foundation for future coursework and research in applied mathematics. Written in a clear and concise style, it covers all of the necessary subjects as well as those often absent from standard introductory texts. Each chapter features a “Problems and Complements” section that includes additional material that briefly expands on certain topics within the chapter and numerous exercises for practicing the key concepts. The first eight chapters explore all of the basic topics for training in real analysis, beginning with a review of countable sets before moving on to detailed discussions of measure theory, Lebesgue integration, Banach spaces, functional analysis, and weakly differentiable functions. More topical applications are discussed in the remaining chapters, such as maximal functions, functions of bounded mean oscillation, rearrangements, potential theory, a...

  14. Image Analysis

    The 19th Scandinavian Conference on Image Analysis was held at the IT University of Copenhagen in Denmark during June 15-17, 2015. The SCIA conference series has been an ongoing biannual event for more than 30 years and over the years it has nurtured a world-class regional research and development....... The topics of the accepted papers range from novel applications of vision systems, pattern recognition, machine learning, feature extraction, segmentation, 3D vision, to medical and biomedical image analysis. The papers originate from all the Scandinavian countries and several other European countries...

  15. Cluster analysis

    Everitt, Brian S; Leese, Morven; Stahl, Daniel


    Cluster analysis comprises a range of methods for classifying multivariate data into subgroups. By organizing multivariate data into such subgroups, clustering can help reveal the characteristics of any structure or patterns present. These techniques have proven useful in a wide range of areas such as medicine, psychology, market research and bioinformatics.This fifth edition of the highly successful Cluster Analysis includes coverage of the latest developments in the field and a new chapter dealing with finite mixture models for structured data.Real life examples are used throughout to demons

  16. Elementary analysis

    Snell, K S; Langford, W J; Maxwell, E A


    Elementary Analysis, Volume 2 introduces several of the ideas of modern mathematics in a casual manner and provides the practical experience in algebraic and analytic operations that lays a sound foundation of basic skills. This book focuses on the nature of number, algebraic and logical structure, groups, rings, fields, vector spaces, matrices, sequences, limits, functions and inverse functions, complex numbers, and probability. The logical structure of analysis given through the treatment of differentiation and integration, with applications to the trigonometric and logarithmic functions, is

  17. Nonlinear analysis

    Nanda, Sudarsan


    "Nonlinear analysis" presents recent developments in calculus in Banach space, convex sets, convex functions, best approximation, fixed point theorems, nonlinear operators, variational inequality, complementary problem and semi-inner-product spaces. Nonlinear Analysis has become important and useful in the present days because many real world problems are nonlinear, nonconvex and nonsmooth in nature. Although basic concepts have been presented here but many results presented have not appeared in any book till now. The book could be used as a text for graduate students and also it will be useful for researchers working in this field.

  18. Piping Analysis


    Burns & McDonnell provide architectural and engineering services in planning, design and construction of a wide range of projects all over the world. In design analysis, company regularly uses COSMIC computer programs. In computer testing piping design of a power plant, company uses Pipe Flexibility Analysis Program (MEL-21) to analyze stresses due to weight, temperature, and pressure found in proposed piping systems. Individual flow rates are put into the computer, then computer calculates the pressure drop existing across each component; if needed, design corrections or adjustments can be made and rechecked.

  19. Numerical analysis

    Brezinski, C


    Numerical analysis has witnessed many significant developments in the 20th century. This book brings together 16 papers dealing with historical developments, survey papers and papers on recent trends in selected areas of numerical analysis, such as: approximation and interpolation, solution of linear systems and eigenvalue problems, iterative methods, quadrature rules, solution of ordinary-, partial- and integral equations. The papers are reprinted from the 7-volume project of the Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics on '/homepage/sac/cam/na2000/index.html<

  20. Genre Analysis



    Swales' CARS model is a robust method of genre analysis.The model is first designed for article introductions; its application covers a wide range from academic to non-academic. The present paper is completely a theoretical framework.At last,future research is proposed.

  1. Genre Analysis



    Swales’ CARS model is a robust method of genre analysis.The model is first designed for article introductions; its application covers a wide range from academic to non-academic.The present paper is completely a theoretical framework.At last,future research is proposed.

  2. Hydroeconomic analysis

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Riegels, Niels; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel


    Hydroeconomic analysis and modeling provides a consistent and quantitative framework to assess the links between water resources systems and economic activities related to water use, simultaneously modeling water supply and water demand. It supports water managers and decision makers in assessing...

  3. Survival Analysis

    Miller, Rupert G


    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  4. Regression Analysis

    Freund, Rudolf J; Sa, Ping


    The book provides complete coverage of the classical methods of statistical analysis. It is designed to give students an understanding of the purpose of statistical analyses, to allow the student to determine, at least to some degree, the correct type of statistical analyses to be performed in a given situation, and have some appreciation of what constitutes good experimental design

  5. Learner Analysis

    Song Xuexia


    @@ In the past, more attempts had been made to explore the ways for teachers to teach English but fewer for learners to learn the language. Learner analysis is to analyze "What the learner is", including age, attitude, motivation, intelligence,aptitude, personality , and etc, with the purpose to realize the transition from "teacher-centered" into "learner-oriented".

  6. Poetic Analysis

    Nielsen, Kirsten


    The first part of this article presents the characteristics of Hebrew poetry: features associated with rhythm and phonology, grammatical features, structural elements like parallelism, and imagery and intertextuality. The second part consists of an analysis of Psalm 121. It is argued that assonan...

  7. Inclusion Analysis

    Colver, David


    Inclusion analysis is the name given by Operis to a black box testing technique that it has found to make the checking of key financial ratios calculated by spreadsheet models quicker, easier and more likely to find omission errors than code inspection.

  8. Duodenal surveillance improves the prognosis after duodenal cancer in familial adenomatous polyposis

    Bülow, Steffen; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Højen, Helle


    of cancer development. Method:  Follow-up of patients in a previous study with gastroduodenoscopy in 1990-2010. Statistical analysis included chi(2) test, actuarial method and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results:  Among 304 patients, 261 (86%) had more than one endoscopy. The median follow-up was 14 years...

  9. Duodenal surveillance improves the prognosis after duodenal cancer in familial adenomatous polyposis

    Bülow, Steffen; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Højen, Helle


    of cancer development. Method: Follow-up of patients in a previous study with gastroduodenoscopy in 1990-2010. Statistical analysis included chi(2) test, actuarial method and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: Among 304 patients, 261 (86%) had more than one endoscopy. The median follow-up was 14 years...

  10. Robust Modeling of Complex Systems with Heavy Tails and Long Memory


    networks including data networks, reliability estimation, risk analysis and financial control. The models are typically non-Gaussian, often driven...networks, reliability estimation, risk analysis and financial control. The models are typically non-Gaussian, often driven by Poisson or Levy noises...cluster model, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal , (09 2011): 0. doi: Gennady Samorodnitsky, Sami Umut Can, Thomas Mikosch. Weak convergence of the

  11. Wavelet analysis

    Cheng, Lizhi; Luo, Yong; Chen, Bo


    This book could be divided into two parts i.e. fundamental wavelet transform theory and method and some important applications of wavelet transform. In the first part, as preliminary knowledge, the Fourier analysis, inner product space, the characteristics of Haar functions, and concepts of multi-resolution analysis, are introduced followed by a description on how to construct wavelet functions both multi-band and multi wavelets, and finally introduces the design of integer wavelets via lifting schemes and its application to integer transform algorithm. In the second part, many applications are discussed in the field of image and signal processing by introducing other wavelet variants such as complex wavelets, ridgelets, and curvelets. Important application examples include image compression, image denoising/restoration, image enhancement, digital watermarking, numerical solution of partial differential equations, and solving ill-conditioned Toeplitz system. The book is intended for senior undergraduate stude...

  12. Complex analysis

    Freitag, Eberhard


    The guiding principle of this presentation of ``Classical Complex Analysis'' is to proceed as quickly as possible to the central results while using a small number of notions and concepts from other fields. Thus the prerequisites for understanding this book are minimal; only elementary facts of calculus and algebra are required. The first four chapters cover the essential core of complex analysis: - differentiation in C (including elementary facts about conformal mappings) - integration in C (including complex line integrals, Cauchy's Integral Theorem, and the Integral Formulas) - sequences and series of analytic functions, (isolated) singularities, Laurent series, calculus of residues - construction of analytic functions: the gamma function, Weierstrass' Factorization Theorem, Mittag-Leffler Partial Fraction Decomposition, and -as a particular highlight- the Riemann Mapping Theorem, which characterizes the simply connected domains in C. Further topics included are: - the theory of elliptic functions based on...

  13. CMB Analysis

    Bond, J R; Crittenden, Robert G.


    We describe the subject of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis - its past, present and future. The theory of Gaussian primary anisotropies, those arising from linear physics operating in the early Universe, is in reasonably good shape so the focus has shifted to the statistical pipeline which confronts the data with the theory: mapping, filtering, comparing, cleaning, compressing, forecasting, estimating. There have been many algorithmic advances in the analysis pipeline in recent years, but still more are needed for the forecasts of high precision cosmic parameter estimation to be realized. For secondary anisotropies, those arising once nonlinearity develops, the computational state of the art currently needs effort in all the areas: the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect, inhomogeneous reionization, gravitational lensing, the Rees-Sciama effect, dusty galaxies. We use the Sunyaev-Zeldovich example to illustrate the issues. The direct interface with observations for these non-Gaussian signals is much more compl...

  14. Elastodynamic Analysis

    Andersen, Lars

    This book contains the lecture notes for the 9th semester course on elastodynamics. The first chapter gives an overview of the basic theory of stress waves propagating in viscoelastic media. In particular, the effect of surfaces and interfaces in a viscoelastic material is studied, and different ....... Thus, in Chapter 3, an alternative semi-analytic method is derived, which may be applied for the analysis of layered half-spaces subject to moving or stationary loads....

  15. Mathematical analysis

    Donaldson, J. A.


    Simple continuum models used in the design, analysis, and control of large space structures are examined. Particular emphasis is placed on boundary value problems associated with the Load Correction Method and control problems involving partial differential equations for the large space structure models. Partial differential equations will be used to model a large space structure, base the design of an optimal controller on this model, approximate the resulting optimal control model, and compare the results with data from other methods.

  16. Chromosome Analysis


    Perceptive Scientific Instruments, Inc., provides the foundation for the Powergene line of chromosome analysis and molecular genetic instrumentation. This product employs image processing technology from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and image enhancement techniques from Johnson Space Center. Originally developed to send pictures back to earth from space probes, digital imaging techniques have been developed and refined for use in a variety of medical applications, including diagnosis of disease.

  17. Spectral Analysis

    Cecconi, Jaures


    G. Bottaro: Quelques resultats d'analyse spectrale pour des operateurs differentiels a coefficients constants sur des domaines non bornes.- L. Garding: Eigenfuction expansions.- C. Goulaouic: Valeurs propres de problemes aux limites irreguliers: applications.- G. Grubb: Essential spectra of elliptic systems on compact manifolds.- J.Cl. Guillot: Quelques resultats recents en Scattering.- N. Schechter: Theory of perturbations of partial differential operators.- C.H. Wilcox: Spectral analysis of the Laplacian with a discontinuous coefficient.

  18. Paleoenvironmental analysis.

    Arobba, Daniele; Boscato, Paolo; Boschian, Giovanni; Falgueres, Christophe; Fasani, Leone; Peretto, Carlo; Sala, Benedetto; Hohenstein, Ursula Thun; Tozzi, Carlo


    New analysis has been carried out concerning the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of some Italian sites dating from the Middle Pleistocene to the Bronze Age. Different aspects have been investigated on each site considering the data collected. The following sites have been analyzed: Isernia La Pineta (Molise); Visogliano and Caverna degli Orsi (Tieste); Toirano Caves (Liguria); Grotta Paglicci (Gargano); Riparo del Molare (Salerno); Grotta del Cavallo (Lecce); Castellaro Lagusello (Monzambano, Mantova).

  19. Economic analysis



    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  20. A national cohort study of long-course preoperative radiotherapy in primary fixed rectal cancer in Denmark

    Bulow, S.; Jensen, L.H.; Altaf, R.


    of radiotherapy concerning technique of radiotherapy, dose and fractionation and use of concomitant chemotherapy. Outcome was determined by actuarial analysis of local control, disease-free survival and overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 258 patients with fixed rectal cancer received long-course radiotherapy......-7%), and the actuarial distant recurrence rate was 41% (95% CI: 35-47%). The cumulative 5-year disease-free survival was 27% (95% CI: 22-32%) and overall 5-year survival was 34% (95% CI: 29-39%). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first population-based report on outcome of preoperative long-course radiotherapy in a large...

  1. Frontier Analysis

    Assaf, A. George; Josiassen, Alexander


    This article presents a comprehensive review of frontier studies in the tourism literature. We discuss the main advantages and disadvantages of the various frontier approaches, in particular, the nonparametric and parametric frontier approaches. The study further differentiates between micro...... on tourism research. The present review also highlights the limitations of existing studies and suggests an agenda for future research....... and macro applications of these approaches, summarizing and critically reviewing the characteristics of the existing studies. We also conduct a meta-analysis to create an overview of the efficiency results of frontier applications. This allows for an investigation of the impact of frontier methodology...

  2. Vector analysis

    Brand, Louis


    The use of vectors not only simplifies treatments of differential geometry, mechanics, hydrodynamics, and electrodynamics, but also makes mathematical and physical concepts more tangible and easy to grasp. This text for undergraduates was designed as a short introductory course to give students the tools of vector algebra and calculus, as well as a brief glimpse into these subjects' manifold applications. The applications are developed to the extent that the uses of the potential function, both scalar and vector, are fully illustrated. Moreover, the basic postulates of vector analysis are brou

  3. Grammar Analysis

    PEI Yuan-yuan


      As the development of the global communication all over the world, English has become the international language for the global communication. Furthermore, speaking as a skill in English language learning becomes more and more important. As it is known, spoken English has specific features, thus to gain an explicit understanding of the features data analysis is helpful. Moreover it is useful for language teacher to make development in teaching to satisfy learner’s needs. Grammatical and phonological are the two remarkable aspects and specific features in spoken language therefore to discover elements into these aspects seems helpful to teaching spoken Enlgish.

  4. Vector analysis

    Newell, Homer E


    When employed with skill and understanding, vector analysis can be a practical and powerful tool. This text develops the algebra and calculus of vectors in a manner useful to physicists and engineers. Numerous exercises (with answers) not only provide practice in manipulation but also help establish students' physical and geometric intuition in regard to vectors and vector concepts.Part I, the basic portion of the text, consists of a thorough treatment of vector algebra and the vector calculus. Part II presents the illustrative matter, demonstrating applications to kinematics, mechanics, and e

  5. Sequential analysis

    Wald, Abraham


    In 1943, while in charge of Columbia University's Statistical Research Group, Abraham Wald devised Sequential Design, an innovative statistical inference system. Because the decision to terminate an experiment is not predetermined, sequential analysis can arrive at a decision much sooner and with substantially fewer observations than equally reliable test procedures based on a predetermined number of observations. The system's immense value was immediately recognized, and its use was restricted to wartime research and procedures. In 1945, it was released to the public and has since revolutio

  6. Understanding analysis

    Abbott, Stephen


    This lively introductory text exposes the student to the rewards of a rigorous study of functions of a real variable. In each chapter, informal discussions of questions that give analysis its inherent fascination are followed by precise, but not overly formal, developments of the techniques needed to make sense of them. By focusing on the unifying themes of approximation and the resolution of paradoxes that arise in the transition from the finite to the infinite, the text turns what could be a daunting cascade of definitions and theorems into a coherent and engaging progression of ideas. Acutely aware of the need for rigor, the student is much better prepared to understand what constitutes a proper mathematical proof and how to write one. Fifteen years of classroom experience with the first edition of Understanding Analysis have solidified and refined the central narrative of the second edition. Roughly 150 new exercises join a selection of the best exercises from the first edition, and three more project-sty...

  7. Evaluation of Current Consensus Statement Recommendations for Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation: A Pooled Analysis of William Beaumont Hospital and American Society of Breast Surgeon MammoSite Registry Trial Data

    Wilkinson, J. Ben [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Beitsch, Peter D. [Dallas Surgical Group, Dallas, Texas (United States); Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, Missouri (United States); Arthur, Doug [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massey Cancer Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Camden, New Jersey (United States); Wazer, David E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts and Rhode Island Hospital/Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island (United States); Keisch, Martin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Healthcare Associates, Miami, Florida (United States); Shaitelman, Simona F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Lyden, Maureen [Biostat International, Inc, Tampa, Florida (United States); Chen, Peter Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: [Department of Radiation Oncology, Michigan Healthcare Professionals/21st Century Oncology, Farmington Hills, Michigan (United States)


    Purpose: To determine whether the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) Consensus Statement (CS) recommendations for accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) are associated with significantly different outcomes in a pooled analysis from William Beaumont Hospital (WBH) and the American Society of Breast Surgeons (ASBrS) MammoSite® Registry Trial. Methods and Materials: APBI was used to treat 2127 cases of early-stage breast cancer (WBH, n=678; ASBrS, n=1449). Three forms of APBI were used at WBH (interstitial, n=221; balloon-based, n=255; or 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy, n=206), whereas all Registry Trial patients received balloon-based brachytherapy. Patients were divided according to the ASTRO CS into suitable (n=661, 36.5%), cautionary (n=850, 46.9%), and unsuitable (n=302, 16.7%) categories. Tumor characteristics and clinical outcomes were analyzed according to CS group. Results: The median age was 65 years (range, 32-94 years), and the median tumor size was 10.0 mm (range, 0-45 mm). The median follow-up time was 60.6 months. The WBH cohort had more node-positive disease (6.9% vs 2.6%, P<.01) and cautionary patients (49.5% vs 41.8%, P=.06). The 5-year actuarial ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), regional nodal failure (RNF), and distant metastasis (DM) for the whole cohort were 2.8%, 0.6%, 1.6%. The rate of IBTR was not statistically higher between suitable (2.5%), cautionary (3.3%), or unsuitable (4.6%) patients (P=.20). The nonsignificant increase in IBTR for the cautionary and unsuitable categories was due to increased elsewhere failures and new primaries (P=.04), not tumor bed recurrence (P=.93). Conclusions: Excellent outcomes after breast-conserving surgery and APBI were seen in our pooled analysis. The current ASTRO CS guidelines did not adequately differentiate patients at an increased risk of IBTR or tumor bed failure in this large patient cohort.

  8. Exergy analysis

    Dovjak, M.; Simone, Angela; Kolarik, Jakub


    Exergy analysis enables us to make connections among processes inside the human body and processes in a building. So far, only the effect of different combinations of air temperatures and mean radiant temperatures have been studied, with constant relative humidity in experimental conditions....... The objective of this study is to determine the effects of different levels of relative humidity (RH), air temperature (Ta) and effective clothing insulation on thermal comfort conditions from the exergy point of view. The performed analyses take into consideration the available data from the study by Toftum et...... al. (1998). The effect of different levels of RH, Ta and effective clothing insulation on human body exergy balance chain, changes in human body exergy consumption rate (hbExCr) and predicted mean vote (PMV) index were analyzed. The results show that thermal comfort conditions do not always results...

  9. 20 CFR 901.1 - Definitions.


    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... during which the actuary spent a substantial amount of time in responsible actuarial experience. (d... month during which the actuary spent a substantial amount of time in responsible pension...

  10. 76 FR 59434 - Proposed Exemptions From Certain Prohibited Transaction Restrictions


    ... at least 80% as of January 1, 2012, as determined by the Plan's actuary (the Actuary), without taking... minimum funding requirements, AFTAP and funding target attainment percentage, the Actuary will not count..., 2011 was $360.9 million. The Plan's independent actuary, AON Hewitt (the Actuary) has determined...

  11. 76 FR 75912 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Meeting of the Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial... the Enrollment of Actuaries, (202) 622- 8225. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given...

  12. 76 FR 34750 - Advisory Committee Meeting


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial... W. McDonough, Executive Director of the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries, 202-622-...

  13. 20 CFR 901.0 - Scope.


    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... perform actuarial services; subpart B of this part sets forth rules governing the enrollment of actuaries; subpart C of this part sets forth standards of performance to which enrolled actuaries must...

  14. 76 FR 32242 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Normal Cost Percentages


    ... requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary... costs are determined. In its meeting on June 11, 2010, the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service... valuations of FERS. The Board reviewed statistical data prepared by the OPM actuaries and considered...

  15. 78 FR 73564 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Meeting of the Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries, 703-414- 2173. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is...

  16. 75 FR 35098 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Normal Cost Percentages


    ... requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary... determined. Recently, the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System concluded that there.... The Board reviewed statistical data prepared by the OPM actuaries and considered trends that...

  17. Permanent interstitial low-dose-rate brachytherapy for patients with low risk prostate cancer. An interim analysis of 312 cases

    Badakhshi, Harun; Graf, Reinhold; Budach, Volker; Wust, Peter [University Hospital Berlin, Department for Radiation Oncology of Charite School of Medicine, Berlin (Germany)


    The biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS) rate after treatment with permanent iodine-125 seed implantation (PSI) or combined seeds and external beam radiotherapy (COMB) for clinical stage T1-T2 localized prostate cancer is a clinically relevant endpoint. The goal of this work was to evaluate the influence of relevant patient- and treatment-related factors. The study population comprised 312 consecutive patients treated with permanent seed implantation. All patients were evaluable for analysis of overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), 230 for bRFS, of which 192 were in the PSI group and 38 in the COMB group. The prescribed minimum peripheral dose was 145 Gy for PSI, for COMB 110 Gy implant and external beam radiotherapy of 45 Gy. The median follow-up time was 33 months (range 8-66 months). bRFS was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level ≤ 0.2 ng/ml at last follow-up. Overall, the actuarial bRFS at 50 months was 88.4 %. The 50-month bRFS rate for PSI and COMB was 90.9 %, and 77.2 %, respectively. In the univariate analysis, age in the categories ≤ 63 and > 63 years (p < 0.00), PSA nadir (≤ 0.5 ng/ml and > 0.5 ng/ml) and PSA bounce (yes/no) were the significant predicting factors for bRFS. None of the other patient and treatment variables (treatment modality, stage, PSA, Gleason score, risk group, number of risk factors, D90 and various other dose parameters) were found to be a statistically significant predictor of 50-month bRFS. The biochemical failure rates were low in this study. As a proof of principle, our large monocenteric analysis shows that low-dose-rate brachytherapy is an effective and safe procedure for patients with early stage prostate cancer. (orig.) [German] Das biochemisch rezidivfreie Ueberleben (bRFS) nach der Brachytherapie mit permanenter Iod-125-Seed-Implantation (PSI) oder in Kombination mit externer Radiotherapie (COMB) ist beim Patienten mit fruehem Prostatakarzinom (T1/T2) ein relevanter

  18. Peritoneal Fluid Analysis

    ... Home Visit Global Sites Search Help? Peritoneal Fluid Analysis Share this page: Was this page helpful? Formal name: Peritoneal Fluid Analysis Related tests: Pleural Fluid Analysis , Pericardial Fluid Analysis , ...

  19. Pleural Fluid Analysis Test

    ... Home Visit Global Sites Search Help? Pleural Fluid Analysis Share this page: Was this page helpful? Formal name: Pleural Fluid Analysis Related tests: Pericardial Fluid Analysis , Peritoneal Fluid Analysis , ...

  20. Pericardial Fluid Analysis

    ... Home Visit Global Sites Search Help? Pericardial Fluid Analysis Share this page: Was this page helpful? Formal name: Pericardial Fluid Analysis Related tests: Pleural Fluid Analysis , Peritoneal Fluid Analysis , ...

  1. Experimental modal analysis

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.


    This technical report concerns the basic theory and principles for experimental modal analysis. The sections within the report are: Output-only modal analysis software, general digital analysis, basics of structural dynamics and modal analysis and system identification. (au)

  2. Uncertainty analysis

    Thomas, R.E.


    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

  3. Matrix analysis

    Bhatia, Rajendra


    A good part of matrix theory is functional analytic in spirit. This statement can be turned around. There are many problems in operator theory, where most of the complexities and subtleties are present in the finite-dimensional case. My purpose in writing this book is to present a systematic treatment of methods that are useful in the study of such problems. This book is intended for use as a text for upper division and gradu­ ate courses. Courses based on parts of the material have been given by me at the Indian Statistical Institute and at the University of Toronto (in collaboration with Chandler Davis). The book should also be useful as a reference for research workers in linear algebra, operator theory, mathe­ matical physics and numerical analysis. A possible subtitle of this book could be Matrix Inequalities. A reader who works through the book should expect to become proficient in the art of deriving such inequalities. Other authors have compared this art to that of cutting diamonds. One first has to...

  4. 76 FR 76235 - Ex Parte Cease and Desist and Summary Seizure Orders-Multiple Employer Welfare Arrangements


    ... premium rates, not based on sound actuarial analysis, but by setting a premium amount that was less than... paid premiums or made contributions to the MEWA can be as significant. The ex parte cease and desist... rules of practice and procedure under 29 CFR part 18 that generally apply to matters before the OALJ....

  5. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  6. Community-Based Social Marketing: Involvement in Health Programs.

    Farmer, Frank L.; Clarke, Leslie L.; Flocks, Joan D.; Bryant, Carol A.; Romund, Camilla S.; Albrecht, Stan L.


    Two community-based projects employed social marketing to design and implement interventions to promote health. The Arkansas project involved key informant interviews, actuarial analysis, citizen and student surveys, and participant observation. The Florida approach included focus groups and provider, worker, and employer surveys. (Contains 25…

  7. Phase II study on stereotactic body radiotherapy of colorectal metastases

    Hoyer, Morten; Roed, Henrik; Traberg Hansen, Anders


    -up was 4.3 years. After 2 years, actuarial local control was 86% and 63% in tumor and patient based analysis, respectively. Nineteen percent were without local or distant progression after 2 years and overall survival was 67, 38, 22, 13, and 13% after 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years, respectively. One patient died...

  8. Teacher Survival in Oregon School Districts: First Results of a State-Wide Study.

    Charters, W.W., Jr.

    The careers of 799 male and 1,265 female teachers employed in Oregon school districts were traced for 4 years from 1962 to 1966 to determine the teachers' survival rates. The primary method of analysis chosen was an actuarial approach which involves construction of a survival curve showing numbers of teachers surviving after each period of time…

  9. 48 CFR 2115.402 - Policy.


    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Policy. 2115.402 Section... NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 2115.402 Policy. Pricing of FEGLI Program premium rates is governed by 5 U.S.C... analysis policies and procedures. To the extent that reasonable or good faith actuarial estimates are...

  10. Information security risk analysis

    Peltier, Thomas R


    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  11. Theoretical numerical analysis a functional analysis framework

    Atkinson, Kendall


    This textbook prepares graduate students for research in numerical analysis/computational mathematics by giving to them a mathematical framework embedded in functional analysis and focused on numerical analysis. This helps the student to move rapidly into a research program. The text covers basic results of functional analysis, approximation theory, Fourier analysis and wavelets, iteration methods for nonlinear equations, finite difference methods, Sobolev spaces and weak formulations of boundary value problems, finite element methods, elliptic variational inequalities and their numerical solu

  12. Valoración actuarial de un plan de pensiones según los métodos individual y agregado de la edad normal de entrada

    Francisco José Peláez Fermoso


    Full Text Available El objetivo que nos proponemos en este trabajo es realizar un análisis comparativo entre los valores que alcanzan las funciones más relevantes del plan cuando se utilizan para su valoración el Método Individual o el Método Agregado de la Edad Normal de Entrada. Para ello, describimos un modelo representativo de un plan de pensiones de prestación definida creado por una empresa a favor de sus empleados. Posteriormente, hacemos una simulación práctica del modelo considerando distintos escenarios posibles que pueden representar el contexto económico y social futuro. Con los resultados obtenidos de la misma, el gestor financiero del plan dispondrá de información suficiente para conocer en qué casos y para qué tipos de empresas es más conveniente aplicar uno u otro método de distribución de costes.

  13. Strengths and limitations of actuarial prediction of criminal reoffence in a German prison sample: a comparative study of LSI-R, HCR-20 and PCL-R.

    Dahle, Klaus-Peter


    Unlike many other countries, for many years, Germany disregarded structured instruments for assessing the risk of criminal reoffence. However, this negative attitude now seems to be gradually changing. An increasing number of contributions regarding structured instruments have been published in the German literature in the last years, and some instruments have already found their way into practice. However, studies that systematically examine the applicability of the mostly Anglo-American instruments to German criminals are still lacking. Therefore, the major objective of the current study was to test some internationally established procedures in a larger unselected sample from the German penal system. The following were included in the study: the Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R), the HCR-20 Scheme, and the Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R). On the whole, the instruments proved to be applicable to German criminals with only a few adaptations to the German situation, and they achieved a predictive accuracy comparable to the values reported internationally. However, there were only minor differences in the predictive performance between the measures. Moreover, some basic limitations became apparent. Firstly, we found quite high percentages of criminals with medium scores and a correspondingly ambiguous prognosis. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy seemed to be dependent on demographic, criminological and psychopathological characteristics of the offenders. Finally, the instruments appeared to only partially utilize the empirical store of knowledge available regarding factors influencing the recidivism of criminals, since even a simple predictive model that only added a few further aspects besides the tested instruments (e. g. treatment yes or no) achieved systematically better predictions than the instruments alone. Altogether, the tested measures turned out to be useful instruments for risk assessments and may be conducive for a more systemized practice. However, due to the limitations inherent, they should be seen as a complement to a careful and clinically informed appraisal and not a substitute.

  14. To Push Forward Sustainable Development of China's Actuary%推动我国精算事业可持续发展



    @@ 2008年秋天,全球金融危机爆发.面对危机,各国政府普遍采取了有力的应对措施,并加强各国政府间的合作,有效遏制了全球经济快速下滑的势头.中国政府采取的应对金融危机的措施,已经初见成效,经济运行出现了积极变化,总体形势企稳向上.

  15. 长期护理保险精算模型的建立%Actuarial Model for Long Term Care Insurance





    Robert Meneu Gaya


    Full Text Available La Ley 27/2011, que reforma el sistema de pensiones español, introduce el factor de sostenibilidad, un instrumento que ajusta automáticamente los parámetros del sistema a la evolución de la esperanza de vida a partir del año 2027 y con revisiones cada 5 años, aunque la reciente Ley Orgánica 2/2012 de Estabilidad Presupuestaria y Sostenibilidad Financiera abre la posibilidad de que se anticipe su entrada en vigor si se proyecta un déficit a largo plazo en el sistema de pensiones. Dado que el diseño concreto del factor de sostenibilidad está pendiente, resulta relevante analizar cómo otros países de la Unión Europea han incorporado instrumentos similares en sus sistemas de pensiones y, desde esas experiencias, ofrecer diseños alternativos para el caso español, valorando los efectos de cada uno de ellos sobre los parámetros del sistema, utilizando para ello las recientes proyecciones de esperanza de vida del Instituto Nacional de Estadística. La Ley 27/2011, que reforma el sistema de pensiones español, introduce el factor de sostenibilidad, un instrumento que ajusta automáticamente los parámetros del sistema a la evolución de la esperanza de vida a partir del año 2027 y con revisiones cada 5 años, aunque la reciente Ley Orgánica 2/2012 de Estabilidad Presupuestaria y Sostenibilidad Financiera abre la posibilidad de que se anticipe su entrada en vigor si se proyecta un déficit a largo plazo en el sistema de pensiones. Dado que el diseño concreto del factor de sostenibilidad está pendiente, resulta relevante analizar cómo otros países de la Unión Europea han incorporado instrumentos similares en sus sistemas de pensiones y, desde esas experiencias, ofrecer diseños alternativos para el caso español, valorando los efectos de cada uno de ellos sobre los parámetros del sistema, utilizando para ello las recientes proyecciones de esperanza de vida del Instituto Nacional de Estadística.

  17. 5 CFR 841.402 - Definitions.


    ...— Actuary means an associate or fellow in the Society of Actuaries and one who is enrolled under section... Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System. Category of employees means a grouping of employees...

  18. 77 FR 75416 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees


    ... Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries (``the Board''). The Board is a non-discretionary... actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. The Board members shall serve for a term of 15...

  19. 78 FR 25135 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request


    ... relates to the granting of enrollment status to actuaries admitted (licensed) by the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries to perform actuarial services under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act...

  20. 77 FR 56913 - Privacy Act of 1974, as Amended


    ... actuaries, enrolled retirement plan agents, appraisers, registered tax return preparers, and any individual... accountant, enrolled agent, enrolled actuary, enrolled retirement plan agent, appraiser, registered...

  1. 76 FR 58514 - Medicare Program; Meeting of the Technical Advisory Panel on Medicare Trustee Reports


    ... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately...

  2. 76 FR 36539 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...


    ... technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted... in nature and will focus on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which...

  3. 76 FR 19360 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...


    ... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately...

  4. Shape analysis in medical image analysis

    Tavares, João


    This book contains thirteen contributions from invited experts of international recognition addressing important issues in shape analysis in medical image analysis, including techniques for image segmentation, registration, modelling and classification, and applications in biology, as well as in cardiac, brain, spine, chest, lung and clinical practice. This volume treats topics such as, anatomic and functional shape representation and matching; shape-based medical image segmentation; shape registration; statistical shape analysis; shape deformation; shape-based abnormity detection; shape tracking and longitudinal shape analysis; machine learning for shape modeling and analysis; shape-based computer-aided-diagnosis; shape-based medical navigation; benchmark and validation of shape representation, analysis and modeling algorithms. This work will be of interest to researchers, students, and manufacturers in the fields of artificial intelligence, bioengineering, biomechanics, computational mechanics, computationa...

  5. Foundations of factor analysis

    Mulaik, Stanley A


    Introduction Factor Analysis and Structural Theories Brief History of Factor Analysis as a Linear Model Example of Factor AnalysisMathematical Foundations for Factor Analysis Introduction Scalar AlgebraVectorsMatrix AlgebraDeterminants Treatment of Variables as Vectors Maxima and Minima of FunctionsComposite Variables and Linear Transformations Introduction Composite Variables Unweighted Composite VariablesDifferentially Weighted Composites Matrix EquationsMulti

  6. Critical Discourse Analysis



    This paper is about the discourse analysis and illustrate the approach to analysis the Critical discourses and the discourses about the educational situation of China. And it also includes the condensed theoretical support of the Critical discourse analysis and analysis of the sample I of the discourses between an illiterate person and the literate.

  7. Experimental modal analysis

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the basic theory and principles for experimental modal analysis. The sections within the report are: Output-only modal analysis software (section 1.1), general digital analysis (section 1.2), basics of structural dynamics and modal analysis (section 1.3) and system ...

  8. K Basin Hazard Analysis

    PECH, S.H.


    This report describes the methodology used in conducting the K Basins Hazard Analysis, which provides the foundation for the K Basins Final Safety Analysis Report. This hazard analysis was performed in accordance with guidance provided by DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U. S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports and implements the requirements of DOE Order 5480.23, Nuclear Safety Analysis Report.

  9. K Basins Hazard Analysis

    WEBB, R.H.


    This report describes the methodology used in conducting the K Basins Hazard Analysis, which provides the foundation for the K Basins Safety Analysis Report (HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062, Rev.4). This hazard analysis was performed in accordance with guidance provided by DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U. S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports and implements the requirements of DOE Order 5480.23, Nuclear Safety Analysis Report.

  10. Integrated Sensitivity Analysis Workflow

    Friedman-Hill, Ernest J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hoffman, Edward L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gibson, Marcus J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clay, Robert L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    Sensitivity analysis is a crucial element of rigorous engineering analysis, but performing such an analysis on a complex model is difficult and time consuming. The mission of the DART Workbench team at Sandia National Laboratories is to lower the barriers to adoption of advanced analysis tools through software integration. The integrated environment guides the engineer in the use of these integrated tools and greatly reduces the cycle time for engineering analysis.

  11. Total skin electron irradiation for mycosis fungoides: failure analysis and prognostic factors

    Tadros, A.A.M.; Tepperman, B.S.; Hryniuk, W.M.; Peters, V.G.; Rosenthal, D.; Roberts, J.T.; Path, C.B.; Figueredo, A.T.


    From 1970 to 1980, 106 patients with mycosis fungoides received total skin electron irradiation to full tolerance. The majority received 30 Gy of 3 MeV electrons in 12 treatments over three weeks. Eighty-eight patients had received prior therapy. At five years, actuarial survival is 66.7% and disease-free survival 21.4%. The median time to relapse is 12 months; prolonged survival is seen only with complete response. In advanced stages, complete response is more likely with doses over 25 Gy (80 vs 50%). First recurrences were predominently in sites of previous involvement. Death resulted mainly from extracutaneous dissemination or failure to induce remission. Complications of the therapy are discussed.

  12. Citation Analysis and Discourse Analysis Revisited

    White, Howard D.


    John Swales's 1986 article "Citation analysis and discourse analysis" was written by a discourse analyst to introduce citation research from other fields, mainly sociology of science, to his own discipline. Here, I introduce applied linguists and discourse analysts to citation studies from information science, a complementary tradition not…

  13. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    Grams, W H


    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U S . Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for HNF-SD-WM-SAR-067, Tank Farms Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved Authorization Basis (AB) for the River Protection Project (RPP). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the Tank Farms FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The Hazard Analysis Database supports the preparation of Chapters 3 ,4 , and 5 of the Tank Farms FSAR and the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Analysis Database: Data from t...

  14. Qualitative Content Analysis

    Philipp Mayring


    Full Text Available The article describes an approach of systematic, rule guided qualitative text analysis, which tries to preserve some methodological strengths of quantitative content analysis and widen them to a concept of qualitative procedure. First the development of content analysis is delineated and the basic principles are explained (units of analysis, step models, working with categories, validity and reliability. Then the central procedures of qualitative content analysis, inductive development of categories and deductive application of categories, are worked out. The possibilities of computer programs in supporting those qualitative steps of analysis are shown and the possibilities and limits of the approach are discussed. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0002204

  15. Cluster analysis for applications

    Anderberg, Michael R


    Cluster Analysis for Applications deals with methods and various applications of cluster analysis. Topics covered range from variables and scales to measures of association among variables and among data units. Conceptual problems in cluster analysis are discussed, along with hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering methods. The necessary elements of data analysis, statistics, cluster analysis, and computer implementation are integrated vertically to cover the complete path from raw data to a finished analysis.Comprised of 10 chapters, this book begins with an introduction to the subject o

  16. Circuit analysis for dummies

    Santiago, John


    Circuits overloaded from electric circuit analysis? Many universities require that students pursuing a degree in electrical or computer engineering take an Electric Circuit Analysis course to determine who will ""make the cut"" and continue in the degree program. Circuit Analysis For Dummies will help these students to better understand electric circuit analysis by presenting the information in an effective and straightforward manner. Circuit Analysis For Dummies gives you clear-cut information about the topics covered in an electric circuit analysis courses to help

  17. Operational Modal Analysis Tutorial

    Brincker, Rune; Andersen, Palle

    analysis in an easier way and in many cases more effectively than traditional modal analysis methods. It can be applied for modal testing and analysis on a wide range of structures and not only for problems generally investigated using traditional modal analysis, but also for those requiring load......In this paper the basic principles in operational modal testing and analysis are presented and discussed. A brief review of the techniques for operational modal testing and identification is presented, and it is argued, that there is now a wide range of techniques for effective identification...... estimation, vibration level estimation and fatigue analysis....

  18. Synovial fluid analysis

    Joint fluid analysis; Joint fluid aspiration ... El-Gabalawy HS. Synovial fluid analysis, synovial biopsy, and synovial pathology. In: Firestein GS, Budd RC, Gabriel SE, McInnes IB, O'Dell JR, eds. Kelly's Textbook of ...


    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA


    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  20. Mathematical and statistical analysis

    Houston, A. Glen


    The goal of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS is to research, develop, and evaluate mathematical and statistical techniques for aerospace technology applications. Specific research areas of interest include modeling, simulation, experiment design, reliability assessment, and numerical analysis.

  1. Buildings Sector Analysis

    Hostick, Donna J.; Nicholls, Andrew K.; McDonald, Sean C.; Hollomon, Jonathan B.


    A joint NREL, ORNL, and PNNL team conducted market analysis to help inform DOE/EERE's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program planning and management decisions. This chapter presents the results of the market analysis for the Buildings sector.

  2. Geologic spatial analysis

    Thiessen, R.L.; Eliason, J.R.


    This report describes the development of geologic spatial analysis research which focuses on conducting comprehensive three-dimensional analysis of regions using geologic data sets that can be referenced by latitude, longitude, and elevation/depth. (CBS)

  3. Regression analysis by example

    Chatterjee, Samprit


    Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded

  4. Applied longitudinal analysis

    Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Ware, James H


    Praise for the First Edition "". . . [this book] should be on the shelf of everyone interested in . . . longitudinal data analysis.""-Journal of the American Statistical Association   Features newly developed topics and applications of the analysis of longitudinal data Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition presents modern methods for analyzing data from longitudinal studies and now features the latest state-of-the-art techniques. The book emphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of methods for the analysis of diverse types of lo

  5. Computational movement analysis

    Laube, Patrick


    This SpringerBrief discusses the characteristics of spatiotemporal movement data, including uncertainty and scale. It investigates three core aspects of Computational Movement Analysis: Conceptual modeling of movement and movement spaces, spatiotemporal analysis methods aiming at a better understanding of movement processes (with a focus on data mining for movement patterns), and using decentralized spatial computing methods in movement analysis. The author presents Computational Movement Analysis as an interdisciplinary umbrella for analyzing movement processes with methods from a range of fi

  6. Slice hyperholomorphic Schur analysis

    Alpay, Daniel; Sabadini, Irene


    This book defines and examines the counterpart of Schur functions and Schur analysis in the slice hyperholomorphic setting. It is organized into three parts: the first introduces readers to classical Schur analysis, while the second offers background material on quaternions, slice hyperholomorphic functions, and quaternionic functional analysis. The third part represents the core of the book and explores quaternionic Schur analysis and its various applications. The book includes previously unpublished results and provides the basis for new directions of research.

  7. Discourse analysis and Foucault's

    Jansen I.


    Full Text Available Discourse analysis is a method with up to now was less recognized in nursing science, althoughmore recently nursing scientists are discovering it for their purposes. However, several authors have criticized thatdiscourse analysis is often misinterpreted because of a lack of understanding of its theoretical backgrounds. In thisarticle, I reconstruct Foucault’s writings in his “Archaeology of Knowledge” to provide a theoretical base for futurearchaeological discourse analysis, which can be categorized as a socio-linguistic discourse analysis.

  8. Biological sequence analysis

    Durbin, Richard; Eddy, Sean; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    This book provides an up-to-date and tutorial-level overview of sequence analysis methods, with particular emphasis on probabilistic modelling. Discussed methods include pairwise alignment, hidden Markov models, multiple alignment, profile searches, RNA secondary structure analysis, and phylogene......This book provides an up-to-date and tutorial-level overview of sequence analysis methods, with particular emphasis on probabilistic modelling. Discussed methods include pairwise alignment, hidden Markov models, multiple alignment, profile searches, RNA secondary structure analysis...

  9. NASA Hazard Analysis Process

    Deckert, George


    This viewgraph presentation reviews The NASA Hazard Analysis process. The contents include: 1) Significant Incidents and Close Calls in Human Spaceflight; 2) Subsystem Safety Engineering Through the Project Life Cycle; 3) The Risk Informed Design Process; 4) Types of NASA Hazard Analysis; 5) Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA); 6) Hazard Analysis Process; 7) Identify Hazardous Conditions; 8) Consider All Interfaces; 9) Work a Preliminary Hazard List; 10) NASA Generic Hazards List; and 11) Final Thoughts

  10. Endometrial carcinoma: stage I. A retrospective analysis of 262 patients.

    De Palo, G; Kenda, R; Andreola, S; Luciani, L; Musumeci, R; Rilke, F


    From 1969 to 1977, 420 patients with endometrial carcinoma were observed and treated at the National Tumor Institute of Milan. Total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy were performed in 351. After careful clinical and pathologic review, 262 patients were classified as having stage I disease. Further treatment included post-operative radium therapy to the vaginal vault. There were 247 cases with adenocarcinoma, 10 with adenoacanthoma, and 5 with adenosquamous or clear cell carcinoma. Of 257 cases with adenocarcinoma or adenoacanthoma, 63 were grade 1, 161 grade 2, and 33 grade 3. Of the total series, only 41 cases had disease limited to the mucosal surface. The 5-year actuarial survival was 91.4% and the recurrence-free survival was 93.4%. The case material was evaluated according to the risk factors, and results were 1) premenopausal patients had a better prognosis (100% recurrence-free survival versus 92.8% for postmenopausal women, P = .003); 2) length of the uterine cavity was not a significant prognostic factor; 3) myometrial invasion alone was not prognostic but correlated with grade of tumor; 4) the grade of the tumor was an important determinant of recurrence (grade 1 98% recurrence-free survival, grade 2 95%, grade 3 79%). With the described therapy, vaginal recurrences were absent. The recurrences were distant in 20% and local with or without distant metastases in 80%.

  11. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.


    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  12. Practical data analysis

    Cuesta, Hector


    Each chapter of the book quickly introduces a key 'theme' of Data Analysis, before immersing you in the practical aspects of each theme. You'll learn quickly how to perform all aspects of Data Analysis.Practical Data Analysis is a book ideal for home and small business users who want to slice & dice the data they have on hand with minimum hassle.

  13. Text analysis and computers


    Content: Erhard Mergenthaler: Computer-assisted content analysis (3-32); Udo Kelle: Computer-aided qualitative data analysis: an overview (33-63); Christian Mair: Machine-readable text corpora and the linguistic description of danguages (64-75); Jürgen Krause: Principles of content analysis for information retrieval systems (76-99); Conference Abstracts (100-131).

  14. Data analysis for chemistry

    Hibbert, DBrynn


    Based on D Brynn Hibbert''s lectures on data analysis to undergraduates and graduate students, this book covers topics including measurements, means and confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, analysis of variance, and calibration models. It is meant as an entry level book targeted at learning and teaching undergraduate data analysis.

  15. Strategic Analysis Overview

    Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe


    NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

  16. Foundations of mathematical analysis

    Johnsonbaugh, Richard


    This classroom-tested volume offers a definitive look at modern analysis, with views of applications to statistics, numerical analysis, Fourier series, differential equations, mathematical analysis, and functional analysis. Upper-level undergraduate students with a background in calculus will benefit from its teachings, along with beginning graduate students seeking a firm grounding in modern analysis. A self-contained text, it presents the necessary background on the limit concept, and the first seven chapters could constitute a one-semester introduction to limits. Subsequent chapters discuss

  17. Mathematical analysis fundamentals

    Bashirov, Agamirza


    The author's goal is a rigorous presentation of the fundamentals of analysis, starting from elementary level and moving to the advanced coursework. The curriculum of all mathematics (pure or applied) and physics programs include a compulsory course in mathematical analysis. This book will serve as can serve a main textbook of such (one semester) courses. The book can also serve as additional reading for such courses as real analysis, functional analysis, harmonic analysis etc. For non-math major students requiring math beyond calculus, this is a more friendly approach than many math-centric o

  18. Analysis in usability evaluations

    Følstad, Asbjørn; Lai-Chong Law, Effie; Hornbæk, Kasper


    While the planning and implementation of usability evaluations are well described in the literature, the analysis of the evaluation data is not. We present interviews with 11 usability professionals on how they conduct analysis, describing the resources, collaboration, creation of recommendations......, and prioritization involved. The interviews indicate a lack of structure in the analysis process and suggest activities, such as generating recommendations, that are unsupported by existing methods. We discuss how to better support analysis, and propose four themes for future research on analysis in usability...

  19. Visual physics analysis VISPA

    Actis, Oxana; Brodski, Michael; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Hinzmann, Andreas; Mueller, Gero; Muenzer, Thomas; Plum, Matthias; Steggemann, Jan; Winchen, Tobias; Klimkovich, Tatsiana, E-mail: tatsiana.klimkovich@physik.rwth-aachen.d [Physics Institute 3a, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen (Germany)


    VISPA is a development environment for high energy physics analyses which enables physicists to combine graphical and textual work. A physics analysis cycle consists of prototyping, performing, and verifying the analysis. The main feature of VISPA is a multipurpose window for visual steering of analysis steps, creation of analysis templates, and browsing physics event data at different steps of an analysis. VISPA follows an experiment-independent approach and incorporates various tools for steering and controlling required in a typical analysis. Connection to different frameworks of high energy physics experiments is achieved by using different types of interfaces. We present the look-and-feel for an example physics analysis at the LHC and explain the underlying software concepts of VISPA.

  20. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  1. Multivariate analysis with LISREL

    Jöreskog, Karl G; Y Wallentin, Fan


    This book traces the theory and methodology of multivariate statistical analysis and shows how it can be conducted in practice using the LISREL computer program. It presents not only the typical uses of LISREL, such as confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation models, but also several other multivariate analysis topics, including regression (univariate, multivariate, censored, logistic, and probit), generalized linear models, multilevel analysis, and principal component analysis. It provides numerous examples from several disciplines and discusses and interprets the results, illustrated with sections of output from the LISREL program, in the context of the example. The book is intended for masters and PhD students and researchers in the social, behavioral, economic and many other sciences who require a basic understanding of multivariate statistical theory and methods for their analysis of multivariate data. It can also be used as a textbook on various topics of multivariate statistical analysis.

  2. http Log Analysis

    Bøving, Kristian Billeskov; Simonsen, Jesper


    This article documents how log analysis can inform qualitative studies concerning the usage of web-based information systems (WIS). No prior research has used http log files as data to study collaboration between multiple users in organisational settings. We investigate how to perform http log...... analysis; what http log analysis says about the nature of collaborative WIS use; and how results from http log analysis may support other data collection methods such as surveys, interviews, and observation. The analysis of log files initially lends itself to research designs, which serve to test...... hypotheses using a quantitative methodology. We show that http log analysis can also be valuable in qualitative research such as case studies. The results from http log analysis can be triangulated with other data sources and for example serve as a means of supporting the interpretation of interview data...

  3. NASA trend analysis procedures


    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  4. Analysis of Precision of Activation Analysis Method

    Heydorn, Kaj; Nørgaard, K.


    The precision of an activation-analysis method prescribes the estimation of the precision of a single analytical result. The adequacy of these estimates to account for the observed variation between duplicate results from the analysis of different samples and materials, is tested by the statistic T......, which is shown to be approximated by a χ2 distribution. Application of this test to the results of determinations of manganese in human serum by a method of established precision, led to the detection of airborne pollution of the serum during the sampling process. The subsequent improvement in sampling...... conditions was shown to give not only increased precision, but also improved accuracy of the results....

  5. Cancellation of Nongroup Health Insurance Policies


    1302 Essential Health Benefits (X) √ §1302 Minimum Actuarial Value (X) √ §1302 Maximum Out-of-Pocket Limits (X) √ Source: CRS analysis of ACA...also not possible to develop reliable estimates on the number of individuals who renewed policies through “early renewal” or who will be offered...must provide at least 30 days’ prior notice to the individual before coverage may be rescinded. Source: CRS analysis of relevant federal law and

  6. Fiscal Year 2014: Military Retirement Fund Audited Financial Report


    PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 i Table of Contents Management’s Discussion and Analysis ...Management’s Discussion and Analysis Summary of the Military Retirement System For the Years Ended September 30, 2014 and 2013 REPORTING ENTITY The...funds to finance, on an actuarial basis, the liabilities of DoD under military retirement and survivor benefit programs. Within DoD, the

  7. Legislative Actions to Repeal, Defund, or Delay the Affordable Care Act


    Office (GAO) study of the costs and processes of ACA implementation, and a Medicare actuarial analysis of the impact of the ACA’s private insurance...86, available at 3 P.L. 113-46, 127 Stat. 558. For more analysis of the various legal and procedural considerations arising is updated periodically to reflect legislative and other developments . Background on the Affordable Care Act4 Among its many provisions, the ACA

  8. Fundamentals of functional analysis

    Farenick, Douglas


    This book provides a unique path for graduate or advanced undergraduate students to begin studying the rich subject of functional analysis with fewer prerequisites than is normally required. The text begins with a self-contained and highly efficient introduction to topology and measure theory, which focuses on the essential notions required for the study of functional analysis, and which are often buried within full-length overviews of the subjects. This is particularly useful for those in applied mathematics, engineering, or physics who need to have a firm grasp of functional analysis, but not necessarily some of the more abstruse aspects of topology and measure theory normally encountered. The reader is assumed to only have knowledge of basic real analysis, complex analysis, and algebra. The latter part of the text provides an outstanding treatment of Banach space theory and operator theory, covering topics not usually found together in other books on functional analysis. Written in a clear, concise manner,...

  9. LULU analysis program

    Crawford, H.J.; Lindstrom, P.J.


    Our analysis program LULU has proven very useful in all stages of experiment analysis, from prerun detector debugging through final data reduction. It has solved our problem of having arbitrary word length events and is easy enough to use that many separate experimenters are now analyzing with LULU. The ability to use the same software for all stages of experiment analysis greatly eases the programming burden. We may even get around to making the graphics elegant someday.

  10. Mastering Clojure data analysis

    Rochester, Eric


    This book consists of a practical, example-oriented approach that aims to help you learn how to use Clojure for data analysis quickly and efficiently.This book is great for those who have experience with Clojure and who need to use it to perform data analysis. This book will also be hugely beneficial for readers with basic experience in data analysis and statistics.

  11. Social network analysis

    Mathias, Carlos Leonardo Kelmer


    In general, the paper develops a historiographical debate about the methodology of social network analysis. More than responding questions using such methodology, this article tries to introduce the historian to the founder bibliography of social network analysis. Since the publication of the famous article by John Barnes in 1954, sociologists linked to sociometric studies have usually employed the social network analysis in their studies. On the other hand, this methodology is not widespread...

  12. Problems in real analysis

    Rǎdulescu, Teodora-Liliana T.; Andreescu, Titu; Rǎdulescu, Vicenţiu


    This book ontains a collection of challenging problems in elementary mathematical analysis, uses competition-inspired problems as a platform for training typical inventive skills, develops basic valuable techniques for solving problems in mathematical analysis on the real axis, assumes only a basic knowledge of the topic but opens the path to competitive research in the field, includes interesting and valuable historical accounts of ideas and methods in analysis, presents a connection between...

  13. Stochastic Analysis 2010

    Crisan, Dan


    "Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

  14. Canonical Information Analysis

    Vestergaard, Jacob Schack; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg


    Canonical correlation analysis is an established multivariate statistical method in which correlation between linear combinations of multivariate sets of variables is maximized. In canonical information analysis introduced here, linear correlation as a measure of association between variables is ...... airborne data. The simulation study shows that canonical information analysis is as accurate as and much faster than algorithms presented in previous work, especially for large sample sizes. URL:

  15. Space Weather Analysis

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Space Weather Analysis archives are model output of ionospheric, thermospheric and magnetospheric particle populations, energies and electrodynamics

  16. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael


    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  17. Thermogravimetric Analysis Laboratory

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — At NETL’s Thermogravimetric Analysis Laboratory in Morgantown, WV, researchers study how chemical looping combustion (CLC) can be applied to fossil energy systems....

  18. Machine Fault Signature Analysis

    Pratesh Jayaswal


    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present recent developments in the field of machine fault signature analysis with particular regard to vibration analysis. The different types of faults that can be identified from the vibration signature analysis are, for example, gear fault, rolling contact bearing fault, journal bearing fault, flexible coupling faults, and electrical machine fault. It is not the intention of the authors to attempt to provide a detailed coverage of all the faults while detailed consideration is given to the subject of the rolling element bearing fault signature analysis.

  19. Finite element analysis


    Finite element analysis is an engineering method for the numerical analysis of complex structures. This book provides a bird's eye view on this very broad matter through 27 original and innovative research studies exhibiting various investigation directions. Through its chapters the reader will have access to works related to Biomedical Engineering, Materials Engineering, Process Analysis and Civil Engineering. The text is addressed not only to researchers, but also to professional engineers, engineering lecturers and students seeking to gain a better understanding of where Finite Element Analysis stands today.

  20. Textile Technology Analysis Lab

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Textile Analysis Labis built for evaluating and characterizing the physical properties of an array of textile materials, but specifically those used in aircrew...

  1. Chemical Analysis Facility

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — FUNCTION: Uses state-of-the-art instrumentation for qualitative and quantitative analysis of organic and inorganic compounds, and biomolecules from gas, liquid, and...

  2. Chemical Security Analysis Center

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — In 2006, by Presidential Directive, DHS established the Chemical Security Analysis Center (CSAC) to identify and assess chemical threats and vulnerabilities in the...

  3. Circuit analysis with Multisim

    Baez-Lopez, David


    This book is concerned with circuit simulation using National Instruments Multisim. It focuses on the use and comprehension of the working techniques for electrical and electronic circuit simulation. The first chapters are devoted to basic circuit analysis.It starts by describing in detail how to perform a DC analysis using only resistors and independent and controlled sources. Then, it introduces capacitors and inductors to make a transient analysis. In the case of transient analysis, it is possible to have an initial condition either in the capacitor voltage or in the inductor current, or bo

  4. Geospatial Data Analysis Facility

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Geospatial application development, location-based services, spatial modeling, and spatial analysis are examples of the many research applications that this facility...

  5. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Batson, Robert G.


    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  6. International Market Analysis

    Sørensen, Olav Jull


    The review presents the book International Market Analysis: Theories and Methods, written by John Kuiada, professor at Centre of International Business, Department of Business Studies, Aalborg University. The book is refreshingly new in its way of looking at a classical problem. It looks at market...... analysis from the point of vie of ways of thinking about markets. Furthermore, the book includes the concept of learning in the analysis of markets og how the way we understand business reality influneces our choice of methodology for market analysis....

  7. 26 CFR 601.502 - Recognized representative.


    .... 230; (4) Enrolled actuary. Any individual who is enrolled as an actuary by and is in active status with the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries pursuant to 29 U.S.C. 1242. (5) Other individuals... actuaries, and others); (3) I am authorized to represent the taxpayer(s) identified in the power of...

  8. 20 CFR 901.13 - Eligibility for enrollment of individuals applying for enrollment on or after January 1, 1976.


    ... FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY ACT OF 1974 Enrollment of Actuaries § 901.13 Eligibility for enrollment... applying on or after January 1, 1976, to be an enrolled actuary, must fulfill the experience requirement...

  9. 32 CFR 48.102 - Definitions.


    ... described in paragraphs (d) and (e) of this section. (m) The term Board of Actuaries means the Government Actuary in the Department of the Treasury, the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration, and a member of the Society of Actuaries appointed by the President to advise the Secretary of Defense on...

  10. 20 CFR 901.34 - Conferences.


    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... § 901.34 Conferences. (a) In general. The Executive Director may confer with an enrolled actuary... of the actuary or the Executive Director. (b) Voluntary suspension or termination of enrollment....

  11. 78 FR 57174 - Advisory Committee Meeting


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries... for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries, 703-414- 2173. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is...

  12. 20 CFR 901.45 - Evidence.


    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... actuaries. However, the Administrative Law Judge shall exclude evidence which is irrelevant, immaterial, or... of Actuaries or the Office of the Executive Director of the Joint Board for the Enrollment...

  13. 78 FR 34671 - Invitation for Membership on Advisory Committee


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Invitation for Membership on Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries (Joint... Director, Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries; Return Preparer Office SE:RPO; Internal...

  14. 75 FR 74021 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees


    ... Actuaries (hereafter referred to as the ``Board''). The Board is a non-discretionary Federal advisory... professional actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. Except for those member of the Board who... Health Care Board of Actuaries' membership about the Board's mission and functions. Written...

  15. 20 CFR 901.70 - Records.


    ...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries a roster of all persons enrolled to perform actuarial... applicable disclosure and privacy statutes. (b) Disciplinary procedures. A request by an enrolled...

  16. 76 FR 56797 - Meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee


    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Executive Director of the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries gives notice of a closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES:...

  17. Topological Data Analysis


    Topological Data Analysis (TDA) can broadly be described as a collection of data analysis methods that find structure in data. This includes: clustering, manifold estimation, nonlinear dimension reduction, mode estimation, ridge estimation and persistent homology. This paper reviews some of these methods.

  18. Proximate Analysis of Coal

    Donahue, Craig J.; Rais, Elizabeth A.


    This lab experiment illustrates the use of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) to perform proximate analysis on a series of coal samples of different rank. Peat and coke are also examined. A total of four exercises are described. These are dry exercises as students interpret previously recorded scans. The weight percent moisture, volatile matter,…

  19. Deconstructing Statistical Analysis

    Snell, Joel


    Using a very complex statistical analysis and research method for the sake of enhancing the prestige of an article or making a new product or service legitimate needs to be monitored and questioned for accuracy. 1) The more complicated the statistical analysis, and research the fewer the number of learned readers can understand it. This adds a…

  20. Structural analysis for diagnosis

    Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh; Blanke, M.


    Aiming at design of algorithms for fault diagnosis, structural analysis of systems offers concise yet easy overall analysis. Graph-based matching, which is the essential tech-nique to obtain redundant information for diagnosis, is reconsidered in this paper. Matching is reformulated as a problem...

  1. Structural analysis for Diagnosis

    Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh; Blanke, M.


    Aiming at design of algorithms for fault diagnosis, structural analysis of systems offers concise yet easy overall analysis. Graph-based matching, which is the essential technique to obtain redundant information for diagnosis, is re-considered in this paper. Matching is re-formulated as a problem...

  2. Educational Cost Analysis.

    Flynn, Donald L.

    Traditional approaches to the cost analysis of educational programs involve examining annual budgets. Such approaches do not properly consider the cost of either new capital expenditures or the current value of previously purchased items. This paper presents the methodology for a new approach to educational cost analysis that identifies the actual…

  3. Interactive Controls Analysis (INCA)

    Bauer, Frank H.


    Version 3.12 of INCA provides user-friendly environment for design and analysis of linear control systems. System configuration and parameters easily adjusted, enabling INCA user to create compensation networks and perform sensitivity analysis in convenient manner. Full complement of graphical routines makes output easy to understand. Written in Pascal and FORTRAN.

  4. Northern blotting analysis

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik


    Northern blotting analysis is a classical method for analysis of the size and steady-state level of a specific RNA in a complex sample. In short, the RNA is size-fractionated by gel electrophoresis and transferred by blotting onto a membrane to which the RNA is covalently bound. Then, the membran...

  5. Electric field analysis

    Chakravorti, Sivaji


    This book prepares newcomers to dive into the realm of electric field analysis. The book details why one should perform electric field analysis and what are its practical implications. It emphasizes both the fundamentals and modern computational methods of electric machines. The book covers practical applications of the numerical methods in high voltage equipment, including transmission lines, power transformers, cables, and gas insulated systems.

  6. Computational Music Analysis

    methodological issues, harmonic and pitch-class set analysis, form and voice-separation, grammars and hierarchical reduction, motivic analysis and pattern discovery and, finally, classification and the discovery of distinctive patterns. As a detailed and up-to-date picture of current research in computational...


    Ian M. Franks


    Full Text Available This book addresses and appropriately explains the notational analysis of technique, tactics, individual athlete/team exercise and work-rate in sport. The book offers guidance in: developing a system, analyzes of data, effective coaching using notational performance analysis and modeling sport behaviors. It updates and improves the 1997 edition

  8. Numerical Limit Analysis:

    Damkilde, Lars


    Limit State analysis has a long history and many prominent researchers have contributed. The theoretical foundation is based on the upper- and lower-bound theorems which give a very comprehensive and elegant formulation on complicated physical problems. In the pre-computer age Limit State analysis...

  9. From analysis to surface

    Bemman, Brian; Meredith, David


    of Sheer Pluck (1984), a twelve-tone composition for guitar by Milton Babbitt (1916–2011). This analysis focuses on the all-partition array structure on which the piece is based. Having pre- sented this analysis, we formalize some constraints on the structure of the piece and explore some computational...

  10. Structured Analysis - IDEF0

    Larsen, Michael Holm


    that require a modelling technique for the analysis, development, re-engineering, integration, or acquisition of information systems; and incorporate a systems or enterprise modelling technique into a business process analysis or software engineering methodology.This note is a summary of the Standard...

  11. Laboratory analysis of stardust.

    Zinner, Ernst


    Tiny dust grains extracted from primitive meteorites are identified to have originated in the atmospheres of stars on the basis of their anomalous isotopic compositions. Although isotopic analysis with the ion microprobe plays a major role in the laboratory analysis of these stardust grains, many other microanalytical techniques are applied to extract the maximum amount of information.

  12. Fundamentals of Functional Analysis

    Kutateladze, S S; Slovák, Jan


    A concise guide to basic sections of modern functional analysis. Included are such topics as the principles of Banach and Hilbert spaces, the theory of multinormed and uniform spaces, the Riesz-Dunford holomorphic functional calculus, the Fredholm index theory, convex analysis and duality theory for locally convex spaces with applications to the Schwartz spaces of distributions and Radon measures.

  13. Application of SWOT analysis.

    Casebeer, A

    SWOT analysis is an effective and simple planning technique which addresses one aspect of many strategic planning processes. Given the complex nature of modern health care systems, the ability to use this type of technique can enable health professionals to participate more fully in the analysis and implementation of health care improvement.

  14. Zen and Behavior Analysis

    Bass, Roger


    Zen's challenge for behavior analysis is to explain a repertoire that renders analysis itself meaningless--a result following not from scientific or philosophical arguments but rather from a unique verbal history generated by Zen's methods. Untying Zen's verbal knots suggests how meditation's and koans' effects on verbal behavior contribute to…

  15. Stochastic Flutter Analysis

    Verhoosel, C.V.; Gutiérrez, M.A.; Hulshoff, S.J.


    The field of fluid-structure interaction is combined with the field of stochastics to perform a stochastic flutter analysis. Various methods to directly incorporate the effects of uncertainties in the flutter analysis are investigated. The panel problem with a supersonic fluid flowing over it is con

  16. Robust Sparse Analysis Regularization

    Vaiter, Samuel; Dossal, Charles; Fadili, Jalal


    This paper studies the properties of L1-analysis regularization for the resolution of linear inverse problems. Most previous works consider sparse synthesis priors where the sparsity is measured as the L1 norm of the coefficients that synthesize the signal in a given dictionary. In contrast, the more general analysis regularization minimizes the L1 norm of the correlations between the signal and the atoms in the dictionary. The corresponding variational problem includes several well-known regularizations such as the discrete total variation and the fused lasso. We first prove that a solution of analysis regularization is a piecewise affine function of the observations. Similarly, it is a piecewise affine function of the regularization parameter. This allows us to compute the degrees of freedom associated to sparse analysis estimators. Another contribution gives a sufficient condition to ensure that a signal is the unique solution of the analysis regularization when there is no noise in the observations. The s...

  17. NMA Analysis Center

    Kierulf, Halfdan Pascal; Andersen, Per Helge


    The Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA) has during the last few years had a close cooperation with Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) in the analysis of space geodetic data using the GEOSAT software. In 2012 NMA has taken over the full responsibility for the GEOSAT software. This implies that FFI stopped being an IVS Associate Analysis Center in 2012. NMA has been an IVS Associate Analysis Center since 28 October 2010. NMA's contributions to the IVS as an Analysis Centers focus primarily on routine production of session-by-session unconstrained and consistent normal equations by GEOSAT as input to the IVS combined solution. After the recent improvements, we expect that VLBI results produced with GEOSAT will be consistent with results from the other VLBI Analysis Centers to a satisfactory level.


    Frisch, H. P.


    The objective of the Integrated Analysis Capability (IAC) system is to provide a highly effective, interactive analysis tool for the integrated design of large structures. With the goal of supporting the unique needs of engineering analysis groups concerned with interdisciplinary problems, IAC was developed to interface programs from the fields of structures, thermodynamics, controls, and system dynamics with an executive system and database to yield a highly efficient multi-disciplinary system. Special attention is given to user requirements such as data handling and on-line assistance with operational features, and the ability to add new modules of the user's choice at a future date. IAC contains an executive system, a data base, general utilities, interfaces to various engineering programs, and a framework for building interfaces to other programs. IAC has shown itself to be effective in automatic data transfer among analysis programs. IAC 2.5, designed to be compatible as far as possible with Level 1.5, contains a major upgrade in executive and database management system capabilities, and includes interfaces to enable thermal, structures, optics, and control interaction dynamics analysis. The IAC system architecture is modular in design. 1) The executive module contains an input command processor, an extensive data management system, and driver code to execute the application modules. 2) Technical modules provide standalone computational capability as well as support for various solution paths or coupled analyses. 3) Graphics and model generation interfaces are supplied for building and viewing models. Advanced graphics capabilities are provided within particular analysis modules such as INCA and NASTRAN. 4) Interface modules provide for the required data flow between IAC and other modules. 5) User modules can be arbitrary executable programs or JCL procedures with no pre-defined relationship to IAC. 6) Special purpose modules are included, such as MIMIC (Model

  19. Functional data analysis

    Ramsay, J O


    Scientists today collect samples of curves and other functional observations. This monograph presents many ideas and techniques for such data. Included are expressions in the functional domain of such classics as linear regression, principal components analysis, linear modelling, and canonical correlation analysis, as well as specifically functional techniques such as curve registration and principal differential analysis. Data arising in real applications are used throughout for both motivation and illustration, showing how functional approaches allow us to see new things, especially by exploiting the smoothness of the processes generating the data. The data sets exemplify the wide scope of functional data analysis; they are drwan from growth analysis, meterology, biomechanics, equine science, economics, and medicine. The book presents novel statistical technology while keeping the mathematical level widely accessible. It is designed to appeal to students, to applied data analysts, and to experienced researc...

  20. Gait analysis: clinical facts.

    Baker, Richard; Esquenazi, Alberto; Benedetti, Maria G; Desloovere, Kaat


    Gait analysis is a well-established tool for the quantitative assessment of gait disturbances providing functional diagnosis, assessment for treatment planning, and monitoring of disease progress. There is a large volume of literature on the research use of gait analysis, but evidence on its clinical routine use supports a favorable cost-benefit ratio in a limited number of conditions. Initially gait analysis was introduced to clinical practice to improve the management of children with cerebral palsy. However, there is good evidence to extend its use to patients with various upper motor neuron diseases, and to lower limb amputation. Thereby, the methodology for properly conducting and interpreting the exam is of paramount relevance. Appropriateness of gait analysis prescription and reliability of data obtained are required in the clinical environment. This paper provides an overview on guidelines for managing a clinical gait analysis service and on the principal clinical domains of its application: cerebral palsy, stroke, traumatic brain injury and lower limb amputation.

  1. Systems engineering and analysis

    Blanchard, Benjamin S


    For senior-level undergraduate and first and second year graduate systems engineering and related courses. A total life-cycle approach to systems and their analysis. This practical introduction to systems engineering and analysis provides the concepts, methodologies, models, and tools needed to understand and implement a total life-cycle approach to systems and their analysis. The authors focus first on the process of bringing systems into being--beginning with the identification of a need and extending that need through requirements determination, functional analysis and allocation, design synthesis, evaluation, and validation, operation and support, phase-out, and disposal. Next, the authors discuss the improvement of systems currently in being, showing that by employing the iterative process of analysis, evaluation, feedback, and modification, most systems in existence can be improved in their affordability, effectiveness, and stakeholder satisfaction.

  2. Social Set Analysis

    Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Hussain, Abid


    this limitation, based on the sociology of associations and the mathematics of set theory, this paper presents a new approach to big data analytics called social set analysis. Social set analysis consists of a generative framework for the philosophies of computational social science, theory of social data......, conceptual and formal models of social data, and an analytical framework for combining big social data sets with organizational and societal data sets. Three empirical studies of big social data are presented to illustrate and demonstrate social set analysis in terms of fuzzy set-theoretical sentiment...... analysis, crisp set-theoretical interaction analysis, and event-studies-oriented set-theoretical visualizations. Implications for big data analytics, current limitations of the set-theoretical approach, and future directions are outlined....

  3. Statistical Analysis of Thermal Analysis Margin

    Garrison, Matthew B.


    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center requires that each project demonstrate a minimum of 5 C margin between temperature predictions and hot and cold flight operational limits. The bounding temperature predictions include worst-case environment and thermal optical properties. The purpose of this work is to: assess how current missions are performing against their pre-launch bounding temperature predictions and suggest any possible changes to the thermal analysis margin rules

  4. Dynamics in Epistasis Analysis.

    Awdeh, Aseel; Phenix, Hilary; Kaern, Mads; Perkins, Theodore


    Finding regulatory relationships between genes, including the direction and nature of influence between them, is a fundamental challenge in the field of molecular genetics. One classical approach to this problem is epistasis analysis. Broadly speaking, epistasis analysis infers the regulatory relationships between a pair of genes in a genetic pathway by considering the patterns of change in an observable trait resulting from single and double deletion of genes. While classical epistasis analysis has yielded deep insights on numerous genetic pathways, it is not without limitations. Here, we explore the possibility of dynamic epistasis analysis, in which, in addition to performing genetic perturbations of a pathway, we drive the pathway by a time-varying upstream signal. We explore the theoretical power of dynamical epistasis analysis by conducting an identifiability analysis of Boolean models of genetic pathways, comparing static and dynamic approaches. We find that even relatively simple input dynamics greatly increases the power of epistasis analysis to discriminate alternative network structures. Further, we explore the question of experiment design, and show that a subset of short time-varying signals, which we call dynamic primitives, allow maximum discriminative power with a reduced number of experiments.

  5. Meaning from curriculum analysis

    Finegold, Menahem; Mackeracher, Dorothy

    This paper reports on the analysis of science curricula carried out across Canada within the framework of the Second International Science Study (SISS). The organization of Canadian education in twelve autonomous educational jurisdictions is briefly described and problems are noted in relation to the analysis of curricula on a national scale. The international design for curriculum analysis is discussed and an alternative design, more suited to the diversity of science education in Canada, is introduced. The analysis of curriculum documents is described and three patterns which emerge from this analysis are identified. These derive from the concepts of commonality, specificity and prescriptiveness. Commonality relates to topics listed in curriculum guideline documents by a number of jurisdictions. Specificity refers to the richness of curriculum documents. Prescriptiveness is a measure of the extent to which jurisdictions do or do not make provision for local options in curriculum design. The Canadian analysis, using the concepts of the common curriculum, specificity and prescriptiveness, is described and research procedures are exemplified. Outcomes of curriculum analysis are presented in graphical form.

  6. Material analysis on engineering statistics

    Lee, Seung Hun


    This book is about material analysis on engineering statistics using mini tab, which includes technical statistics and seven tools of QC, probability distribution, presumption and checking, regression analysis, tim series analysis, control chart, process capacity analysis, measurement system analysis, sampling check, experiment planning, response surface analysis, compound experiment, Taguchi method, and non parametric statistics. It is good for university and company to use because it deals with theory first and analysis using mini tab on 6 sigma BB and MBB.

  7. Static analysis for blinding

    Nielsen, Christoffer Rosenkilde; Nielson, Hanne Riis


    operation blinding. In this paper we study the theoretical foundations for one of the successful approaches to validating cryptographic protocols and we extend it to handle the blinding primitive. Our static analysis approach is based on Flow Logic; this gives us a clean separation between the specification...... of the analysis and its realisation in an automatic tool. We concentrate on the former in the present paper and provide the semantic foundation for our analysis of protocols using blinding - also in the presence of malicious attackers....

  8. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    Aven, Terje


    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  9. Android malware and analysis

    Dunham, Ken


    The rapid growth and development of Android-based devices has resulted in a wealth of sensitive information on mobile devices that offer minimal malware protection. This has created an immediate demand for security professionals that understand how to best approach the subject of Android malware threats and analysis.In Android Malware and Analysis, Ken Dunham, renowned global malware expert and author, teams up with international experts to document the best tools and tactics available for analyzing Android malware. The book covers both methods of malware analysis: dynamic and static.This tact

  10. Observations on risk analysis

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.


    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested.

  11. Basic stress analysis

    Iremonger, M J


    BASIC Stress Analysis aims to help students to become proficient at BASIC programming by actually using it in an important engineering subject. It also enables the student to use computing as a means of learning stress analysis because writing a program is analogous to teaching-it is necessary to understand the subject matter. The book begins by introducing the BASIC approach and the concept of stress analysis at first- and second-year undergraduate level. Subsequent chapters contain a summary of relevant theory, worked examples containing computer programs, and a set of problems. Topics c

  12. Methods of Multivariate Analysis

    Rencher, Alvin C


    Praise for the Second Edition "This book is a systematic, well-written, well-organized text on multivariate analysis packed with intuition and insight . . . There is much practical wisdom in this book that is hard to find elsewhere."-IIE Transactions Filled with new and timely content, Methods of Multivariate Analysis, Third Edition provides examples and exercises based on more than sixty real data sets from a wide variety of scientific fields. It takes a "methods" approach to the subject, placing an emphasis on how students and practitioners can employ multivariate analysis in real-life sit

  13. Real analysis and probability

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E


    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  14. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim


    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  15. Wood Products Analysis


    Structural Reliability Consultants' computer program creates graphic plots showing the statistical parameters of glue laminated timbers, or 'glulam.' The company president, Dr. Joseph Murphy, read in NASA Tech Briefs about work related to analysis of Space Shuttle surface tile strength performed for Johnson Space Center by Rockwell International Corporation. Analysis led to a theory of 'consistent tolerance bounds' for statistical distributions, applicable in industrial testing where statistical analysis can influence product development and use. Dr. Murphy then obtained the Tech Support Package that covers the subject in greater detail. The TSP became the basis for Dr. Murphy's computer program PC-DATA, which he is marketing commercially.

  16. [Emergy analysis of ecosystems].

    Lan, S; Qin, P


    The concept of emergy and its use for comparing with energy were discussed in this paper. Emergy was defined as the amount of available energy required directly and indirectly to make a product or services, and emergy analysis was based on the solar emergy units (solar emjoules). Emergy provided the methodology with a common basis for measuring the value of different kinds of energy, and for evaluating the contributions from nature and humanity. A comparison of emergy analysis with previous energy analysis was also performed.

  17. The Pension Fund passes important milestones


    In this column, the Chairman of the Pension Fund Governing Board (PFGB) presents the Board's latest main decisions, initiatives and accomplishments to the Fund's members and beneficiaries.   Since my last report in October, the PFGB has passed several milestones in actuarial, technical and investment matters. The PFGB has completed an analysis of a request by the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere (ESO) to reduce the increased cost of pension insurance for new ESO recruits that has been caused by the increased CHF/€ exchange ratio. Currently the staff of ESO are admitted to the CERN Pension Fund, pursuant to a co-operation agreement between CERN and ESO dating back to 1968. This analysis assessed the actuarial, financial, administrative and legal implications, and is scheduled to be presented to the CERN Council and the Finance Committee in December. After an open tendering process the PFGB has selected Buck Consultants Limited...

  18. Building energy analysis tool

    Brackney, Larry; Parker, Andrew; Long, Nicholas; Metzger, Ian; Dean, Jesse; Lisell, Lars


    A building energy analysis system includes a building component library configured to store a plurality of building components, a modeling tool configured to access the building component library and create a building model of a building under analysis using building spatial data and using selected building components of the plurality of building components stored in the building component library, a building analysis engine configured to operate the building model and generate a baseline energy model of the building under analysis and further configured to apply one or more energy conservation measures to the baseline energy model in order to generate one or more corresponding optimized energy models, and a recommendation tool configured to assess the one or more optimized energy models against the baseline energy model and generate recommendations for substitute building components or modifications.

  19. Structural analysis of DAEs

    Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin


    analysis of DAE is original in the sense that it is based on a new matrix representation of the structural information of a general DAE system instead of a graph oriented representation. Also the presentation of the theory is found to be more complete compared to other presentations, since it e.g. proves....... The methodology is mainly based on strutural index analysis which is not limited by the index of the DAE as other methodologies. As a result of structural index analysis one can perform index reduction of the DAE and obtain the so-called augmented underlying ODE. It is also described, how to use the augmented......, by the implementation of the Simpy tool box. This is an object oriented system implemented in the Python language. It can be used for analysis of DAEs, ODEs and non-linear equation and uses e.g. symbolic representations of expressions and equations. The presentations of theory and algorithms for structural index...

  20. Principles of Fourier analysis

    Howell, Kenneth B


    Fourier analysis is one of the most useful and widely employed sets of tools for the engineer, the scientist, and the applied mathematician. As such, students and practitioners in these disciplines need a practical and mathematically solid introduction to its principles. They need straightforward verifications of its results and formulas, and they need clear indications of the limitations of those results and formulas.Principles of Fourier Analysis furnishes all this and more. It provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical theory of Fourier analysis, including the development of Fourier series, "classical" Fourier transforms, generalized Fourier transforms and analysis, and the discrete theory. Much of the author''s development is strikingly different from typical presentations. His approach to defining the classical Fourier transform results in a much cleaner, more coherent theory that leads naturally to a starting point for the generalized theory. He also introduces a new generalized theory based ...

  1. Analysis in Banach spaces

    Hytönen, Tuomas; Veraar, Mark; Weis, Lutz


    The present volume develops the theory of integration in Banach spaces, martingales and UMD spaces, and culminates in a treatment of the Hilbert transform, Littlewood-Paley theory and the vector-valued Mihlin multiplier theorem. Over the past fifteen years, motivated by regularity problems in evolution equations, there has been tremendous progress in the analysis of Banach space-valued functions and processes. The contents of this extensive and powerful toolbox have been mostly scattered around in research papers and lecture notes. Collecting this diverse body of material into a unified and accessible presentation fills a gap in the existing literature. The principal audience that we have in mind consists of researchers who need and use Analysis in Banach Spaces as a tool for studying problems in partial differential equations, harmonic analysis, and stochastic analysis. Self-contained and offering complete proofs, this work is accessible to graduate students and researchers with a background in functional an...

  2. NOAA's Inundation Analysis Tool

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coastal storms and other meteorological phenomenon can have a significant impact on how high water levels rise and how often. The inundation analysis program is...

  3. Coal - proximate analysis



    This Standard establishes a practice for the proximate analysis of coal, that is, the coal is analysed for the content of moisture, ash and volatile matter; fixed carbon is calculated. The standard provides a basis for the comparison of coals.

  4. Lectures on Functional Analysis

    Kurepa, Svetozar; Kraljević, Hrvoje


    This volume consists of a long monographic paper by J. Hoffmann-Jorgensen and a number of shorter research papers and survey articles covering different aspects of functional analysis and its application to probability theory and differential equations.

  5. Water Quality Analysis Simulation

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Water Quality analysis simulation Program, an enhancement of the original WASP. This model helps users interpret and predict water quality responses to natural...

  6. Energy Sector Market Analysis

    Arent, D.; Benioff, R.; Mosey, G.; Bird, L.; Brown, J.; Brown, E.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Aabakken, J.; Parks, K.; Lapsa, M.; Davis, S.; Olszewski, M.; Cox, D.; McElhaney, K.; Hadley, S.; Hostick, D.; Nicholls, A.; McDonald, S.; Holloman, B.


    This paper presents the results of energy market analysis sponsored by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization and International Program (WIP) within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The analysis was conducted by a team of DOE laboratory experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with additional input from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The analysis was structured to identify those markets and niches where government can create the biggest impact by informing management decisions in the private and public sectors. The analysis identifies those markets and niches where opportunities exist for increasing energy efficiency and renewable energy use.

  7. Multidimensional nonlinear descriptive analysis

    Nishisato, Shizuhiko


    Quantification of categorical, or non-numerical, data is a problem that scientists face across a wide range of disciplines. Exploring data analysis in various areas of research, such as the social sciences and biology, Multidimensional Nonlinear Descriptive Analysis presents methods for analyzing categorical data that are not necessarily sampled randomly from a normal population and often involve nonlinear relations. This reference not only provides an overview of multidimensional nonlinear descriptive analysis (MUNDA) of discrete data, it also offers new results in a variety of fields. The first part of the book covers conceptual and technical preliminaries needed to understand the data analysis in subsequent chapters. The next two parts contain applications of MUNDA to diverse data types, with each chapter devoted to one type of categorical data, a brief historical comment, and basic skills peculiar to the data types. The final part examines several problems and then concludes with suggestions for futu...

  8. GAP Analysis Program (GAP)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Kansas GAP Analysis Land Cover database depicts 43 land cover classes for the state of Kansas. The database was generated using a two-stage hybrid classification...

  9. Errors from Image Analysis

    Wood, William Monford [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    Presenting a systematic study of the standard analysis of rod-pinch radiographs for obtaining quantitative measurements of areal mass densities, and making suggestions for improving the methodology of obtaining quantitative information from radiographed objects.


    Wei-nan E; Ping-bing Ming


    The heterogeneous multiscale method gives a general framework for the analysis of multiscale methods. In this paper, we demonstrate this by applying this framework to two canonical problems: The elliptic problem with multiscale coefficients and the quasicontinuum method.

  11. Perspectives in shape analysis

    Bruckstein, Alfred; Maragos, Petros; Wuhrer, Stefanie


    This book presents recent advances in the field of shape analysis. Written by experts in the fields of continuous-scale shape analysis, discrete shape analysis and sparsity, and numerical computing who hail from different communities, it provides a unique view of the topic from a broad range of perspectives. Over the last decade, it has become increasingly affordable to digitize shape information at high resolution. Yet analyzing and processing this data remains challenging because of the large amount of data involved, and because modern applications such as human-computer interaction require real-time processing. Meeting these challenges requires interdisciplinary approaches that combine concepts from a variety of research areas, including numerical computing, differential geometry, deformable shape modeling, sparse data representation, and machine learning. On the algorithmic side, many shape analysis tasks are modeled using partial differential equations, which can be solved using tools from the field of n...

  12. Intelligent audio analysis

    Schuller, Björn W


    This book provides the reader with the knowledge necessary for comprehension of the field of Intelligent Audio Analysis. It firstly introduces standard methods and discusses the typical Intelligent Audio Analysis chain going from audio data to audio features to audio recognition.  Further, an introduction to audio source separation, and enhancement and robustness are given. After the introductory parts, the book shows several applications for the three types of audio: speech, music, and general sound. Each task is shortly introduced, followed by a description of the specific data and methods applied, experiments and results, and a conclusion for this specific task. The books provides benchmark results and standardized test-beds for a broader range of audio analysis tasks. The main focus thereby lies on the parallel advancement of realism in audio analysis, as too often today’s results are overly optimistic owing to idealized testing conditions, and it serves to stimulate synergies arising from transfer of ...

  13. Longitudinal categorical data analysis

    Sutradhar, Brajendra C


    This is the first book in longitudinal categorical data analysis with parametric correlation models developed based on dynamic relationships among repeated categorical responses. This book is a natural generalization of the longitudinal binary data analysis to the multinomial data setup with more than two categories. Thus, unlike the existing books on cross-sectional categorical data analysis using log linear models, this book uses multinomial probability models both in cross-sectional and longitudinal setups. A theoretical foundation is provided for the analysis of univariate multinomial responses, by developing models systematically for the cases with no covariates as well as categorical covariates, both in cross-sectional and longitudinal setups. In the longitudinal setup, both stationary and non-stationary covariates are considered. These models have also been extended to the bivariate multinomial setup along with suitable covariates. For the inferences, the book uses the generalized quasi-likelihood as w...

  14. Unsupervised Linear Discriminant Analysis


    An algorithm for unsupervised linear discriminant analysis was presented. Optimal unsupervised discriminant vectors are obtained through maximizing covariance of all samples and minimizing covariance of local k-nearest neighbor samples. The experimental results show our algorithm is effective.

  15. Main: Nucleotide Analysis [KOME

    Full Text Available Nucleotide Analysis Japonica genome blast search result Result of blastn search against japon...ica genome sequence kome_japonica_genome_blast_search_result ...

  16. Russian River Analysis

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This document is an analysis and summary of progress toward achieving the interim management objectives for the Russian River during the 1979 season. Additionally,...

  17. Design and Analysis Facility

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Provides engineering design of aircraft components, subsystems and installations using Pro/E, Anvil 1000, CADKEY 97, AutoCAD 13. Engineering analysis tools include...

  18. Distributed Analysis in CMS

    Fanfani, Alessandra; Sanches, Jose Afonso; Andreeva, Julia; Bagliesi, Giusepppe; Bauerdick, Lothar; Belforte, Stefano; Bittencourt Sampaio, Patricia; Bloom, Ken; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Brew, Chris; Calloni, Marco; Cesini, Daniele; Cinquilli, Mattia; Codispoti, Giuseppe; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Dong, Liang; Dongiovanni, Danilo; Donvito, Giacinto; Dykstra, David; Edelmann, Erik; Egeland, Ricky; Elmer, Peter; Eulisse, Giulio; Evans, Dave; Fanzago, Federica; Farina, Fabio; Feichtinger, Derek; Fisk, Ian; Flix, Josep; Grandi, Claudio; Guo, Yuyi; Happonen, Kalle; Hernandez, Jose M; Huang, Chih-Hao; Kang, Kejing; Karavakis, Edward; Kasemann, Matthias; Kavka, Carlos; Khan, Akram; Kim, Bockjoo; Klem, Jukka; Koivumaki, Jesper; Kress, Thomas; Kreuzer, Peter; Kurca, Tibor; Kuznetsov, Valentin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Letts, James; Linden, Tomas; Lueking, Lee; Maes, Joris; Magini, Nicolo; Maier, Gerhild; McBride, Patricia; Metson, Simon; Miccio, Vincenzo; Padhi, Sanjay; Pi, Haifeng; Riahi, Hassen; Riley, Daniel; Rossman, Paul; Saiz, Pablo; Sartirana, Andrea; Sciaba, Andrea; Sekhri, Vijay; Spiga, Daniele; Tuura, Lassi; Vaandering, Eric; Vanelderen, Lukas; Van Mulders, Petra; Vedaee, Aresh; Villella, Ilaria; Wicklund, Eric; Wildish, Tony; Wissing, Christoph; Wurthwein, Frank


    The CMS experiment expects to manage several Pbytes of data each year during the LHC programme, distributing them over many computing sites around the world and enabling data access at those centers for analysis. CMS has identified the distributed sites as the primary location for physics analysis to support a wide community with thousands potential users. This represents an unprecedented experimental challenge in terms of the scale of distributed computing resources and number of user. An overview of the computing architecture, the software tools and the distributed infrastructure is reported. Summaries of the experience in establishing efficient and scalable operations to get prepared for CMS distributed analysis are presented, followed by the user experience in their current analysis activities.

  19. Materials analysis fast ions

    Denker, A; Rauschenberg, J; Röhrich, J; Strub, E


    Materials analysis with ion beams exploits the interaction of ions with the electrons and nuclei in the sample. Among the vast variety of possible analytical techniques available with ion beams we will restrain to ion beam analysis with ion beams in the energy range from one to several MeV per mass unit. It is possible to use either the back-scattered projectiles (RBS – Rutherford Back Scattering) or the recoiled atoms itself (ERDA – Elastic Recoil Detection Analysis) from the elastic scattering processes. These techniques allow the simultaneous and absolute determination of stoichiometry and depth profiles of the detected elements. The interaction of the ions with the electrons in the sample produces holes in the inner electronic shells of the sample atoms, which recombine and emit X-rays characteristic for the element in question. Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) has shown to be a fast technique for the analysis of elements with an atomic number above 11.

  20. Indicators of prognosis after liver transplantation in Chinese hepatocellular carcinoma patients

    Jin Li; Lu-Nan Yan; Jian Yang; Zhe-Yu Chen; Bo Li; Yong Zeng; Tian-Fu Wen; Ji-Chun Zhao; Wen-Tao Wang; Jia-Yin Yang; Ming-Qing Xu; Yu-Kui Ma


    AIM:To identify prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), who were treated by orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT).METHODS: From January 2000 to October 2006,165 patients with HCC underwent OLT. Various clinicopathological risk factors for actuarial and recurrencefree survival were identified using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independently predictive factors for actuarial and recurrence-free survival, which were used to propose new selection criteria. We compared the outcome of the subgroup patients meeting different criteria. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test.RESULTS: The median follow-up was 13.0 mo (2.8-69.5 mo). Overall, 1-, 2-, 3- and 5-year actuarial survival was 73.3%, 45.6%, 35.4% and 32.1%, respectively.One-, 2-, 3- and 5-year overall recurrencefree survival was 67.0%, 44.3%, 34.5% and 34.5%,respectively. In univariate analysis, number of tumors,total tumor size, lobar distribution, differentiation, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, capsulation of the tumor, and lymph node metastasis were found to be associated significantly with actuarial and tumor-free survival. By means of using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, total tumor size and macrovascular invasion were found to be independent predictors of actuarial and tumor-free survival. When the selection criteria were expanded into the proposed criteria, there was no significant difference in 1-, 2-, 3- and 5-year actuarial and tumor-free survival of the 49 patients who met the proposed criteria (97.6%, 82.8%, 82.8% and 82.8%, and 90.7%, 82.8%, 68.8% and 68.8%, respectively)compared with that of patients who met the Milan or University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) criteria.CONCLUSION: Macrovascular invasion and total tumor diameter are the strongest prognostic factors.The proposed criteria do not adversely affect the

  1. Systems analysis-independent analysis and verification

    Badin, J.S.; DiPietro, J.P. [Energetics, Inc., Columbia, MD (United States)


    The DOE Hydrogen Program is supporting research, development, and demonstration activities to overcome the barriers to the integration of hydrogen into the Nation`s energy infrastructure. Much work is required to gain acceptance of hydrogen energy system concepts and to develop them for implementation. A systems analysis database has been created that includes a formal documentation of technology characterization profiles and cost and performance information. Through a systematic and quantitative approach, system developers can understand and address important issues and thereby assure effective and timely commercial implementation. This project builds upon and expands the previously developed and tested pathway model and provides the basis for a consistent and objective analysis of all hydrogen energy concepts considered by the DOE Hydrogen Program Manager. This project can greatly accelerate the development of a system by minimizing the risk of costly design evolutions, and by stimulating discussions, feedback, and coordination of key players and allows them to assess the analysis, evaluate the trade-offs, and to address any emerging problem areas. Specific analytical studies will result in the validation of the competitive feasibility of the proposed system and identify system development needs. Systems that are investigated include hydrogen bromine electrolysis, municipal solid waste gasification, electro-farming (biomass gasifier and PEM fuel cell), wind/hydrogen hybrid system for remote sites, home electrolysis and alternate infrastructure options, renewable-based electrolysis to fuel PEM fuel cell vehicle fleet, and geothermal energy used to produce hydrogen. These systems are compared to conventional and benchmark technologies. Interim results and findings are presented. Independent analyses emphasize quality, integrity, objectivity, a long-term perspective, corporate memory, and the merging of technical, economic, operational, and programmatic expertise.

  2. Stereotactic body radiotherapy for centrally located stage I NSCLC. A multicenter analysis

    Schanne, Daniel H.; Nestle, Ursula; Grosu, Anca L. [Universitaetsklinik Freiburg, Klinik fuer Strahlenheilkunde, Freiburg (Germany); Allgaeuer, Michael [Barmherzige Brueder, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Regensburg (Germany); Andratschke, Nicolaus; Molls, Michael [TU Muenchen, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radiologische Onkologie, Muenchen (Germany); Appold, Steffen [Universitaetsklinikum Dresden, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Dresden (Germany); Dieckmann, Ute [Allgemeines Krankenhaus Wien, Univ. Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wien (Austria); Ernst, Iris [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Muenster (Germany); Ganswindt, Ute [LMU Muenchen, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Muenchen (Germany); Holy, Richard [Universitaetsklinikum Aachen, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Aachen (Germany); Nevinny-Stickel, Meinhard [Medizinischen Universitaet Innsbruck, Univ. Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Innsbruck (Austria); Semrau, Sabine [Universitaetsklinikum Erlangen, Strahlenklinik Erlangen, Erlangen (Germany); Sterzing, Florian [Universitaetsklinikum Heidelberg, Klinik fuer Radioonkologie und Strahlentherapie, Heidelberg (Germany); Wittig, Andrea [Philipps-Universitaet Marburg, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie, Marburg (Germany); Guckenberger, Matthias [Universitaet Wuerzburg, Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Wuerzburg (Germany)


    The purpose of this work is to analyze patterns of care and outcome after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for centrally located, early-stage, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to address the question of potential risk for increased toxicity in this entity. A total of 90 patients with centrally located NSCLC were identified among 613 cases in a database of 13 German and Austrian academic radiotherapy centers. The outcome of centrally located NSCLC was compared to that of cases with peripheral tumor location from the same database. Patients with central tumors most commonly presented with UICC stage IB (50 %), while the majority of peripheral lesions were stage IA (56 %). Average tumor diameters were 3.3 cm (central) and 2.8 cm (peripheral). Staging PET/CT was available for 73 and 74 % of peripheral and central tumors, respectively. Biopsy was performed in 84 % (peripheral) and 88 % (central) of cases. Doses varied significantly between central and peripheral lesions with a median BED{sub 10} of 72 Gy and 84 Gy, respectively (p < 0.001). Fractionation differed as well with medians of 5 (central) and 3 (peripheral) fractions (p < 0.001). In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, 3-year actuarial overall survival was 29 % (central) and 51 % (peripheral; p = 0.004) and freedom from local progression was 52 % (central) and 84 % (peripheral; p < 0.001). Toxicity after treatment of central tumors was low with no grade III/IV and one grade V event. Mortality rates were 0 and 1 % after 30 and 60 days, respectively. Local tumor control in patients treated with SBRT for centrally located, early-stage NSCLC was favorable, provided ablative radiation doses were prescribed. This was, however, not the case in the majority of patients, possibly due to concerns about treatment-related toxicity. Reported toxicity was low, but prospective trials are needed to resolve the existing uncertainties and to establish safe high-dose regimens for this cohort of patients. (orig.) [German] Ziel

  3. Static Analysis Numerical Algorithms


    STATIC ANALYSIS OF NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS KESTREL TECHNOLOGY, LLC APRIL 2016 FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION...3. DATES COVERED (From - To) NOV 2013 – NOV 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE STATIC ANALYSIS OF NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA8750-14-C... algorithms , linear digital filters and integrating accumulators, modifying existing versions of Honeywell’s HiLiTE model-based development system and

  4. Applied functional analysis

    Griffel, DH


    A stimulating introductory text, this volume examines many important applications of functional analysis to mechanics, fluid mechanics, diffusive growth, and approximation. Detailed enough to impart a thorough understanding, the text is also sufficiently straightforward for those unfamiliar with abstract analysis. Its four-part treatment begins with distribution theory and discussions of Green's functions. Essentially independent of the preceding material, the second and third parts deal with Banach spaces, Hilbert space, spectral theory, and variational techniques. The final part outlines the

  5. DART system analysis.

    Boggs, Paul T.; Althsuler, Alan (Exagrid Engineering); Larzelere, Alex R. (Exagrid Engineering); Walsh, Edward J.; Clay, Ruuobert L.; Hardwick, Michael F. (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA)


    The Design-through-Analysis Realization Team (DART) is chartered with reducing the time Sandia analysts require to complete the engineering analysis process. The DART system analysis team studied the engineering analysis processes employed by analysts in Centers 9100 and 8700 at Sandia to identify opportunities for reducing overall design-through-analysis process time. The team created and implemented a rigorous analysis methodology based on a generic process flow model parameterized by information obtained from analysts. They also collected data from analysis department managers to quantify the problem type and complexity distribution throughout Sandia's analyst community. They then used this information to develop a community model, which enables a simple characterization of processes that span the analyst community. The results indicate that equal opportunity for reducing analysis process time is available both by reducing the ''once-through'' time required to complete a process step and by reducing the probability of backward iteration. In addition, reducing the rework fraction (i.e., improving the engineering efficiency of subsequent iterations) offers approximately 40% to 80% of the benefit of reducing the ''once-through'' time or iteration probability, depending upon the process step being considered. Further, the results indicate that geometry manipulation and meshing is the largest portion of an analyst's effort, especially for structural problems, and offers significant opportunity for overall time reduction. Iteration loops initiated late in the process are more costly than others because they increase ''inner loop'' iterations. Identifying and correcting problems as early as possible in the process offers significant opportunity for time savings.

  6. Cuckoo malware analysis

    Oktavianto, Digit


    This book is a step-by-step, practical tutorial for analyzing and detecting malware and performing digital investigations. This book features clear and concise guidance in an easily accessible format.Cuckoo Malware Analysis is great for anyone who wants to analyze malware through programming, networking, disassembling, forensics, and virtualization. Whether you are new to malware analysis or have some experience, this book will help you get started with Cuckoo Sandbox so you can start analysing malware effectively and efficiently.

  7. Hedging in Discourse Analysis

    XIAO Xin


    In this article an attempt to enhance the awareness of hedging use in discourse analysis and academic writing is made by analyzing hedges employed in two comparable texts. The discourse analysis is conducted from“content-oriented”hedges and“reader-oriented”hedges. The article suggests that hedging can dampen utterances and statements, weaken the force of what one says and show politeness to the listeners or readers, which varies from different discourse styles of various genres.

  8. Automated Sentiment Analysis


    Sentiment Analysis? Deep philosophical questions could be raised about the nature of sentiment. It is not exactly an emotion – one can choose to...and syntactic analysis easier. It also forestalls misunderstanding; sentences likely to be misclassified (because of unusual style, sarcasm , etc...has no emotional significance. We focus on supervised learning for this prototype; though, we can alter our program to perform unsupervised learning

  9. Nonlinear functional analysis

    W. L. Fouché


    Full Text Available In this article we discuss some aspects of nonlinear functional analysis. It included reviews of Banach’s contraction theorem, Schauder’s fixed point theorem, globalising techniques and applications of homotopy theory to nonlinear functional analysis. The author emphasises that fundamentally new ideas are required in order to achieve a better understanding of phenomena which contain both nonlinear and definite infinite dimensional features.

  10. Video analysis platform

    FLORES, Pablo; Arias, Pablo; Lecumberry, Federico; Pardo, Álvaro


    In this article we present the Video Analysis Platform (VAP) which is an open source software framework for video analysis, processing and description. The main goals of VAP are: to provide a multiplatform system which allows the easy implementation of video algorithms, provide structures and algorithms for the segmentation of video data in its different levels of abstraction: shots, frames, objects, regions, etc, permit the generation and comparison of MPEG7-like descriptors, and develop tes...


    E.F. fitch


    The purpose and objective of this design analysis are to develop controls considered necessary and sufficient to implement the requirements for the controlled drilling and blasting excavation of operations support alcoves and test support alcoves in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). The conclusions reached in this analysis will flow down into a construction specification ensuring controlled drilling and blasting excavation will be performed within the bounds established here.

  12. Applied functional analysis

    Oden, J Tinsley


    The textbook is designed to drive a crash course for beginning graduate students majoring in something besides mathematics, introducing mathematical foundations that lead to classical results in functional analysis. More specifically, Oden and Demkowicz want to prepare students to learn the variational theory of partial differential equations, distributions, and Sobolev spaces and numerical analysis with an emphasis on finite element methods. The 1996 first edition has been used in a rather intensive two-semester course. -Book News, June 2010

  13. PEST Analysis of Serbia

    Ivan Stosic; Drasko Nikolic; Aleksandar Zdravkovic


    The main purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the current Serbian macro-environment on the businesses through the implementation of PEST analysis as a framework for assessing general or macro environment in which companies are operating. The authors argue the elements in presented PEST analysis indicate that the current macro-environment is characterized by the dominance of threats and weaknesses with few opportunities and strengths. Consequently, there is a strong need for faste...

  14. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

    Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.


    NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

  15. Distributed analysis in ATLAS

    Legger, Federica; The ATLAS collaboration


    The ATLAS experiment accumulated more than 140 PB of data during the first run of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The analysis of such an amount of data for the distributed physics community is a challenging task. The Distributed Analysis (DA) system of the ATLAS experiment is an established and stable component of the ATLAS distributed computing operations. About half a million user jobs are daily running on DA resources, submitted by more than 1500 ATLAS physicists. The reliability of the DA system during the first run of the LHC and the following shutdown period has been high thanks to the continuous automatic validation of the distributed analysis sites and the user support provided by a dedicated team of expert shifters. During the LHC shutdown, the ATLAS computing model has undergone several changes to improve the analysis workflows, including the re-design of the production system, a new analysis data format and event model, and the development of common reduction and analysis frameworks. We r...

  16. A PROOF Analysis Framework

    Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro


    The analysis of the complex LHC data usually follows a standard path that aims at minimizing not only the amount of data but also the number of observables used. After a number of steps of slimming and skimming the data, the remaining few terabytes of ROOT files hold a selection of the events and a flat structure for the variables needed that can be more easily inspected and traversed in the final stages of the analysis. PROOF arises at this point as an efficient mechanism to distribute the analysis load by taking advantage of all the cores in modern CPUs through PROOF Lite, or by using PROOF Cluster or PROOF on Demand tools to build dynamic PROOF cluster on computing facilities with spare CPUs. However using PROOF at the level required for a serious analysis introduces some difficulties that may scare new adopters. We have developed the PROOF Analysis Framework (PAF) to facilitate the development of new analysis by uniformly exposing the PROOF related configurations across technologies and by taking care of ...

  17. [The kidney transplantation from the ABO-incompatible donors].

    Goriaĭnov, V A; Kaabak, M M; Babenko, N N; Shishlo, L A; Morozova, M M; Ragimov, A A; Dashkova, N G; Salimov, É L


    The experience of 28 allotransplantations of ABO-incompatible kidneys was compared with the treatment results of 38 ABO-compatible renal transplantations. The transplanted kidney function, morphological changes of the transplanted kidney and the comparative analysis of actuary survival in both groups showed no significant difference. The results of the study prove the validity of the kidney transplantation from the ABO-incompatible donors.

  18. Fiscal Year 2014 United States Army Corps of Engineers -Civil Works Annual Financial Report: Maintaining Readiness Through Fiscal Responsibility


    Compensation Act benefits. The Department of the Army (DA) actuarial liability for workers’ compensation benefits is developed by the Department of...Works) 3 Message from the USACE Chief Financial Officer 5 Management’s Discussion and Analysis 7 Civil Works Program Principal Financial Statements...and responsive development and management of the Nation’s water resources; (2) protect, restore, and manage the aquatic environment; and (3) provide

  19. The Military Health System: Redefining the Role of Employers and Improving Cost-Share Parity Among Retirees


    procurement; and research, development , test, and evaluation (RDT&E). Most of the resources appropriated for military health care are allocated to DHP. The...Retired Air Force Colonel Mike Hayden of the Military Officers Association of America (MOAA) provides a convincing analysis that about one-third of the...DoD health care expenses in at least two ways. First, given that 98% of employer-sponsored health insurance has an actuarial value of 80% or greater

  20. Multivariate Skew-Normal Individual Excess-of-Loss Reserving

    Pigeon, Mathieu; Denuit, Michel


    In excess-of-loss reinsurance, only claims with incurred loss above a reporting threshold speci_ed in the treaty are noti_ed to the reinsurer. The data available for reinsurance pricing and reserving are, thus, incomplete and failing to account for this limitation may bias the actuarial analysis. The collective approach based on aggregate development triangles cannot deal with this kind of incompleteness. This is why we develop here an individual reserving method combining paid and incurred l...